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Source: (consider it) Thread: Oldham by-election
TurquoiseTastic

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So the pundits are watching the Oldham byelection on December 3rd to see whether UKIP make further inroads into the normally massive Labour majority there.

Any predictions?

I think UKIP will make considerable gains.

Diagnosis offered which I (non-Labour voter) find fairly plausible: Labour under Corbyn is becoming more a party for left-wing intellectuals and radicals, less for traditional trade-unionists. Thus the Labour vote will hold up in London but is in danger from the populist right in the North.

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Marvin the Martian

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I broadly agree with your diagnosis. Labour's problem is that more and more of the working class folk it thinks should be guaranteed to vote for it no longer see it as a party that speaks for them. And for the most part, those people are going to UKIP.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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quetzalcoatl
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I think Labour will win. Whether or not the percentage vote will drop, dunno. The votes cast will probably drop because of low turn-out.

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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Stetson
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Tutquoise wrote:

quote:
Diagnosis offered which I (non-Labour voter) find fairly plausible: Labour under Corbyn is becoming more a party for left-wing intellectuals and radicals, less for traditional trade-unionists. Thus the Labour vote will hold up in London but is in danger from the populist right in the North.
Marvin wrote:

quote:
I broadly agree with your diagnosis. Labour's problem is that more and more of the working class folk it thinks should be guaranteed to vote for it no longer see it as a party that speaks for them. And for the most part, those people are going to UKIP.

It's a perennial complaint that labour-oriented parties are drifting away from their working-class roots, and being over-run by "intellectuals and radicals". I'm guessing this sort of thing was being said in the 60s, when the youth culture was in full swing, and the Labour Party likely had as many intellectuals in tow as it does now.

And it's pretty much a global complaint as well. I believe it was at the 1972 Democratic Convention in Miami Beach that union reps were heard complaining about "too many love beads, not enough cigars".

And do union people in the UK really think that the rule of Tony Blair was a better time for trade-unionists in the Labour Party than the rule of Jeremy Corbyn?

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Enoch
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I also think Labour will win. It's share of the poll will probably drop very markedly. Nevertheless, the combination of the ethnic vote and those that will not forsake it either for Ukip or despite their dislike for Corbyn will be sufficient to pull it through. Although Ukip may pick up quite a lot of votes from usually Labour voters, I suspect it will not attract that many voters from the other parties' regular voters, who by and large detest it.

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Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson

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Anglican't
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A Stop the War Coalition demo outside Labour HQ (which was attended by at least one Labour Shadow Minister) caused the cancellation of a telephone canvassing session this evening. Were Labour to lose the seat by a handful of votes I wonder how the blame game would play out?

But I think Labour will win.

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Sipech
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My prediction is that Labour will win.

Dan Hodges will then publish a piece (already drafted) explaining why this is such a terrible result for Jeremy Corbyn.

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I try to be self-deprecating; I'm just not very good at it.
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Touchstone
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quote:
Originally posted by Stetson:

And do union people in the UK really think that the rule of Tony Blair was a better time for trade-unionists in the Labour Party than the rule of Jeremy Corbyn? [/QB]

As a trade unionist, I would have to say yes, because then Labour was in government and there's no chance that it will be again any time soon.

Anyone who is intellectually lazy enough to assert that Noo Labour was no better than the Tories needs to familiarize themselves with the contents of the Trades Unions Act currently making its way through the Lords. The right to strike may well be all but removed.

As for Oldham, I think Labour will win but this is a seat that it should be impossible for them to lose. The only real challenger is UKIP and the constituency has a large minority ethnic community to whom UKIP's appeal is somewhat limited.

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Jez we did hand the next election to the Tories on a plate!

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Sipech:
My prediction is that Labour will win.

Dan Hodges will then publish a piece (already drafted) explaining why this is such a terrible result for Jeremy Corbyn.

The response of most of the media since Corbyn's leadership win has been similar to that of Kevin the teenager - flail arms and yell 'It's SO NOT FAIR!'.
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Joesaphat
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I sincerely hope they get crushed, now that Labour allows segregated rallies, and Mr McMahon's answer to people who challenge him on the matter online is to block them. Bye bye,
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Touchstone
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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Sipech:
My prediction is that Labour will win.

Dan Hodges will then publish a piece (already drafted) explaining why this is such a terrible result for Jeremy Corbyn.

The response of most of the media since Corbyn's leadership win has been similar to that of Kevin the teenager - flail arms and yell 'It's SO NOT FAIR!'.
I think a more accurate description of the response in the less responsible sections of the media has been (adopts southern accent) "yeehar! it's a turkey shoot boys!"

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Jez we did hand the next election to the Tories on a plate!

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Sipech
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Touchstone, by "southern accent" can you clarify the relative position of southern in your thinking?

Southern United States (e.g. Alabama) would sound rather different from southern England (e.g. Berkshire) in uttering "yeehar! it's a turkey shoot boys!".

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Sioni Sais
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If it's between Labour and UKIP it says little for the Conservatives. I reckon UKIP will win it, by a couple of thousand, but that will only be because the BNP aren't standing, which is a surprise in an area which has had a fair amount of racial tension. Maybe the BNP has decided to pass the xenophobe baton to UKIP.

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Anglican't
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Why does that reflect poorly on the Conservatives? It's a safe Labour seat no doubt full of the sort of people who wouldn't vote Tory.

The BNP are almost insolvent, I think. It's no surprise that they aren't standing. It wouldn't surprise me if they couldn't afford the deposit.

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Sioni Sais
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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
Why does that reflect poorly on the Conservatives? It's a safe Labour seat no doubt full of the sort of people who wouldn't vote Tory.

The BNP are almost insolvent, I think. It's no surprise that they aren't standing. It wouldn't surprise me if they couldn't afford the deposit.

I'd expect the Conservatives to pick up some of the Labour malcontents and while the BNP is skint, UKIP has lost some backers recently. Then again, their support is so fickle a win could see them back again.

It won't cure the disagreements between Nigel Farage and almost everyone else in the party though. This makes Corbyn v the PLP look trivial.

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betjemaniac
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quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
Why does that reflect poorly on the Conservatives? It's a safe Labour seat no doubt full of the sort of people who wouldn't vote Tory.

The BNP are almost insolvent, I think. It's no surprise that they aren't standing. It wouldn't surprise me if they couldn't afford the deposit.

I'd expect the Conservatives to pick up some of the Labour malcontents and while the BNP is skint, UKIP has lost some backers recently. Then again, their support is so fickle a win could see them back again.

It won't cure the disagreements between Nigel Farage and almost everyone else in the party though. This makes Corbyn v the PLP look trivial.

I think the Tories are (understandably) peddling softly up in Oldham. They're not really in the running to win, UKIP with 2 seats is probably no more dangerous than UKIP with one, and the political calculation is probably just to stand back and give them their head in the hope that they can embarrass Labour.

I'm not making a judgment as to whether that's good, right, or sensible (in the long term), but I can understand the thinking.

The Conservative campaigning budget for Oldham is probably about £3.60.

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And is it true? For if it is....

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Anglican't
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The danger for the Conservatives if Labour lose is that it might further weaken Corbyn's position. At the moment he's a key asset.
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Touchstone
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quote:
Originally posted by Sipech:
Touchstone, by "southern accent" can you clarify the relative position of southern in your thinking?

Southern United States (e.g. Alabama) would sound rather different from southern England (e.g. Berkshire) in uttering "yeehar! it's a turkey shoot boys!".

I was thinking maybe Ray Winstone.

Labour should squeak home. There's a significant Tory vote in the constituency and they aren't all blue collar Tories who might be UKIP targets.

Even if Labour lose, I for one won't read much significance into it, by-elections are strange beasts. Having said that I can't think of any examples of an opposition party with a new leader, defending a huge majoriy, losing one.

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Jez we did hand the next election to the Tories on a plate!

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quetzalcoatl
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Heywood was a shock in 2014, but it was because UKIP increased their vote by 36%, which I think is a record. But at the GE the Labour majority became more comfortable; same area as well.

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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TurquoiseTastic

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Well, early signs are that I was completely wrong...
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Doublethink.
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Lib dems are now saying they think that Labour have over 60% of the vote on a 40% turnout. Thats a pretty good result for a new candidate if its right.

(Labour held the seat with 55% of the vote at the general election.)

[ 03. December 2015, 23:12: Message edited by: Doublethink. ]

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Doublethink.
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Labour - 17,322

UKIP - 6,487

Conservative - 2,596

Liberal Democrat - 1,024

Green - 249

Monster Raving Loony - 141

Nigel Farage is very upset.

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Barnabas62
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UKIP were well beaten by a very good Labour candidate. Nigel Farrage is a sore loser! Jeremy Corbyn needed a good night and he got one.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Sioni Sais
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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
UKIP were well beaten by a very good Labour candidate. Nigel Farrage is a sore loser! Jeremy Corbyn needed a good night and he got one.

Paul Nuttall is an even sorer loser. I've heard him whinging about the iniquities of postal votes.

At this rate Douglas Carswell, who has fallen out with Farage, may well ask the Tories to take him back.

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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"

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Barnabas62
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I'd quite like to see the collapse of UKIP in the 'Northern Powerhouse'. It pains me to see working class people voting for that shower. Well, anyone really. Labour have got work to do to achieve that result more generally but I'm hoping we're on our way.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Doublethink.
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# 1984

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Farage has posted on twitter that someone told him the postal vote was "bent".

I think that extremely unlikely, but I wonder if UKIP will launch a legal challenge.

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Touchstone
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Delighted that we don't have another UKIP MP this morning. They slightly increased their vote share but it was a terrible result for them - bodes well for the EU referendum.

I think that UKIP need to improve their own postal vote operation rather than whingeing.

Labour's core British Asian vote seems to have held up, possiby helped by Corbyn's opposition to air strikes in Syria? They also fielded a strong local candidate, rather than some SPAD carpetbagger.

Other than that, a case of "nothing to see here."

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Jez we did hand the next election to the Tories on a plate!

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Ariel
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We'll never know, but it would be interesting to know whether, if the by-election had been held before the Syria debate, or there had been no Syria debate at all, the result would have been more in Ukip's favour.

I've also wondered whether the result was influenced by a) a popular local candidate or b) the Benn Effect. But who can tell.

[ 04. December 2015, 07:08: Message edited by: Ariel ]

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Doublethink.
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I do think that the half the press stating that this was a referendum on Corbyn and the candidate was going to scrape in or lose, may want to re-examine their political analysis. They did not see Corbyn's victory within labour coming, and now their electoral prediction was very, very wrong.

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Ariel
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That's one by-election. It doesn't mean it will be a resounding victory in five years' time. There are already too many question marks over Corbyn and his close associates. Whether you think they're justified or not, if enough mud is flung it has a habit of sticking.
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Firenze

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Yes, there seems to be this odd thing in the Media about Corbyn - 'oh he's popular with people - but what do they know?'
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Touchstone
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I said on the Labour leadership election thread, that with Corbyn as leader Labour would pile up votes in their safe seats in London, Wales and the Northern cities, whilst losing even more marginal seats in the rest of England. This result is in line with that prediction and I stand by it.

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Jez we did hand the next election to the Tories on a plate!

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Ariel
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quote:
Originally posted by Firenze:
Yes, there seems to be this odd thing in the Media about Corbyn - 'oh he's popular with people - but what do they know?'

He's popular with some people, but it doesn't look as if all the Labour membership are equally enchanted, and I don't just mean MPs, there have been vox pops on the local news to which some Labour supporters have replied they think he's a joke.
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Doublethink.
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quote:
Originally posted by Touchstone:
I said on the Labour leadership election thread, that with Corbyn as leader Labour would pile up votes in their safe seats in London, Wales and the Northern cities, whilst losing even more marginal seats in the rest of England. This result is in line with that prediction and I stand by it.

Before the labour victory that isn't what people were saying though, is it ?

Not even on this thread, let alone the press.

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Doublethink.
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quote:
Originally posted by Joesaphat:
I sincerely hope they get crushed, now that Labour allows segregated rallies, and Mr McMahon's answer to people who challenge him on the matter online is to block them. Bye bye,

I'm intrigued, what do you expect that organisers do if a group chooses to seat themselves b gender - do you ask them to stand up and reseat them boy/girl boy/girl.

(They used to do that when we lined up at primary school, but then it got lampooned as teachers being too politically correct.)

[ 04. December 2015, 07:45: Message edited by: Doublethink. ]

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Barnabas62
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The real lesson may well be to go for good local candidates who understand the constituency at grass roots level. I think that applies particularly in constituencies like Oldham. Particularly in the current climate, working class local grievances are not always best met by pointing to national policies or the charisma (or otherwise) of national leaders.

The plus for Jeremy Corbyn in that is that he has shown a willingness both to listen and to ask questions which members of the general public have about government and its policies. People may not always agree with his own, conviction-based, conclusions. But he's not remote. And something of his courtesy and sincerity have got across. Hilary Benn's description of him as "an honest, a principled, a decent and a good man" represents a widely held view. I think people have got fed up with "slick, professional and polished" politicians. That's increasingly seen as all too "spinny and self-serving".

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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mr cheesy
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I don't understand the problem with segregation of gender, providing everyone wants it. In various Christian communities I've visited around the world, this is all perfectly normal - men sit on one side and the women on another.

The only possible problem with segregation is when the men get all the good seats and exclude the women from the political process by relegating them to the back of the room and barracking them whenever they try to make a point.

One would think that could be easily dealt with.

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arse

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Touchstone
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quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
quote:
Originally posted by Touchstone:
I said on the Labour leadership election thread, that with Corbyn as leader Labour would pile up votes in their safe seats in London, Wales and the Northern cities, whilst losing even more marginal seats in the rest of England. This result is in line with that prediction and I stand by it.

Before the labour victory that isn't what people were saying though, is it

Not even on this thread, let alone the press.

Hard polling evidence for this particular election was thin on the ground, but there were party canvass returns indicating that UKIP were a real threat. It was in any case a by-election and these frequently throw up completely anomalous results. In a general election it is entirely possible that Labour could win the popular vote but lose the election . This has happened before:


1951 general election

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Jez we did hand the next election to the Tories on a plate!

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TurquoiseTastic

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No, I think this is a very good result for Labour and bad for UKIP. It indicates that UKIP are failing to capitalise on their general election surge.

The Conservatives have missed the boat I think. They should be trying to make inroads in the urban North - they shouldn't write it off as impossible territory.

Lots of people have said nice things about McMahon. He seems a good thing.

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Sioni Sais
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# 5713

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quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
Farage has posted on twitter that someone told him the postal vote was "bent".

I think that extremely unlikely, but I wonder if UKIP will launch a legal challenge.

He's like a football manager complaining about a referee not giving his team a penalty. Does it matter that their star striker would have missed anyway?

I hope they do go through the courts. Their funds are low and with luck this will ruin them financially. Another similarity with the BNP.

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quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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It's quite comical watching the anti-Corbyn pundits scrambling for a position on this. Favourite is probably, 'Labour win in spite of Corbyn' (which seems unfalsifiable); also 'strong local candidate' is a runner. The Times for a while had 'Muslims win Oldham for Labour', which seems a bit Farage-like, while Farage himself seems to be in panic mode. I was looking for the Guardian's anti-Corbyn slant to be preserved, and it didn't disappoint, with 'in spite of Corbyn'. You can almost call it a neo-con rag now.

Imagine the disappointment they felt, and all those wasted headlines, disaster for Corbyn, Benn favourite to take over, blah blah blah.

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Anglican't
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UKIP doesn't have a strong ground operation, so far as I can tell, so it will always struggle to get its voters out on the day. In a by-election, where turn out is often lower, this is crucial.

With Corbyn's position now more secure, I think this is a good result for the Tories.

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Karl: Liberal Backslider
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# 76

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quote:
Originally posted by Touchstone:
I said on the Labour leadership election thread, that with Corbyn as leader Labour would pile up votes in their safe seats in London, Wales and the Northern cities, whilst losing even more marginal seats in the rest of England. This result is in line with that prediction and I stand by it.

Once you eliminate London and the Northern cities, there's not much left, population wise, of England. A few very large largely rural constituencies but all ones that Labour would never win in a million years anyway.

Not sure how you can take Wales out of England as it's not in it.

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Pottage
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# 9529

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It's turned into a disappointing non-story for the media. A precipitous fall in Labour support would have been newsworthy, especially with all the wider interest in Labour Party affairs that Corbyn's elevation and all the subsequent skirmishing has generated. But "very strong Labour candidate holds very safe Labour seat" doesn't leave much to write about. Jim McMahon doesn't seem like the sort of MP who will be a natural Corbynista when he gets to Westminster, but I imagine it'll be all smiles and handshakes today.

Farage's ranting might help the newsworthiness for at least some of the press, but unless he turns up some actual evidence pretty soon (and I don't rule out the possibility that he could be right) that's also going to fizzle out pretty fast and be dismissed as whining from someone who has a bit of "form" as a poor loser.

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chris stiles
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# 12641

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quote:
Originally posted by Joesaphat:
I sincerely hope they get crushed, now that Labour allows segregated rallies.

The Prime Minister has regularly addresses segregated audiences, presumably you apply the same reasoning in this case.
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quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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An even bigger non-story is 'pundits hopelessly wrong', or 'anti-Corbyn bias of media quite transparent'. Still, that would require an element of reflection, forget it.

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Pottage
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# 9529

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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
An even bigger non-story is 'pundits hopelessly wrong', or 'anti-Corbyn bias of media quite transparent'. Still, that would require an element of reflection, forget it.

After the general election, "pundits hopelessly wrong again" isn't really news, no!
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Anglican't
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# 15292

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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Joesaphat:
I sincerely hope they get crushed, now that Labour allows segregated rallies.

The Prime Minister has regularly addresses segregated audiences, presumably you apply the same reasoning in this case.
When? Where?
Posts: 3613 | From: London, England | Registered: Nov 2009  |  IP: Logged
quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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quote:
Originally posted by Pottage:
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
An even bigger non-story is 'pundits hopelessly wrong', or 'anti-Corbyn bias of media quite transparent'. Still, that would require an element of reflection, forget it.

After the general election, "pundits hopelessly wrong again" isn't really news, no!
Well, they are on a hot streak, general election, Labour leadership contest, now Oldham by-election. You saw it here first (and wrong).

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Sioni Sais
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# 5713

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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Joesaphat:
I sincerely hope they get crushed, now that Labour allows segregated rallies.

The Prime Minister has regularly addresses segregated audiences, presumably you apply the same reasoning in this case.
When? Where?
Party conferences, invitation-only fundraisers. Some press releases are by invitation. Everyone does it. It isn't news.

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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"

(Paul Sinha, BBC)

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