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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Is ISIS Winning?
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
Not all terrorists are equal. Some terrorists are clever at causing chaos and others are skilled at dispatching people, but every now and again you get a fearsome mixture of a piercing intelligence alongside the determined intention to do evil and unleash it on a community. In many respects it was what made the IRA so brutally effective. They knew how to market themselves on the world stage and at the same time appealed to a twisted, yet attractive, and somewhat idealistic nationalism that could be effectively used for recruiting purposes. They managed to produce the perfect storm in which to carry out their goals; paranoia, fear, national sentiment and the use of religious feeling.
Isis uses these same things and operates in much the same way, but also does so with a truly terrifying intelligence. The media portrays them in exactly the same way as it used o do with the IRA, suggesting that they are thugs with no intelligence and a fundamentalist attitude. This of course is to underestimate them, which in turn also plays into their hands. If they are considered stupid then no one will suspect that they are capable of what they actually manage to pull off. This is not to say they don;t use stupid people. the IRA did that too, using idiots like pack mules to cart bombs into certain areas or to carry out punishment. They deliberately chose people of psychotic tendency, those with ego issues who believed they were born to deliver suffering to others and the plain stupid. You can see Isis operating in this realm too, but where is the real front face of the battle?
The thing about terrorism is that it isn't fought in a traditional battlefield. It is fought quite literally in the hearts and minds of all people. It is seated in attitude, approach to community, in self understanding and in concepts of self worth. Isis takes its battle to this front and it is on this front I suspect that it is winning. The response to Isis in the West seems to be to bomb it, shoot it, kill it. It imagines that it is somehow contained within particular borders in countries and therefore can be tackled in the traditional way that warfare is normally carried out. However, the battle that terrorism wages is often an interior battle for the hearts and minds of people and it knows how to play on fears in such a way as to make even its enemies work for it - this is the great and terrifying evil of terrorism.
So where is Isis waging its battle today? The most obvious role is in how it wants the world to see the muslim. It wants people to look in fear and suspicion and it cultivates this with a deft craft and a chilling intelligence. It seeks to have 'the west' look at the muslim, the stranger and the refugee with fear and suspicion. It wants to cultivate the notion that muslims are under threat from western society, that they are persecuted, rejected and ostracised, and of course it does this through acts of terrorism and it doesn't even have to do it a lot. Two or three events in one particular country at well placed times or events and an entire country can lose its mind in irrational fear. It is this 'seeding' that is most effective for iota purposes as it causes countries top place restrictions on their own citizens, it produces a hardening of attitudes to outsiders, to those even in need and to the refugee and immigrant. It has an effect on politics that moves away from an outward looking community to one of inward looking national sentiment - this was where the IRA's campaign was most successful, in making Northern Ireland essentially a completely insular society for almost thirty years and the establishment of sectarianism as a social and religious norm. Today you can see the same things going on throughout Europe and the USA; a seeding that is beginning to take root and sprout.
I've lived through this experience once in the IRA campaign and the various iterations of loyalist terrorists who also waged an unholy terror on its own people. I think I can see that in the west we are at the edge of the abyss and Isis won't have to do an awful lot more to push us over the edge. Much was written after the troubles in Northern Ireland about why it happened and how sectarianism and terrorism works, but none of them really managed to get the bottom of how it might have been halted and at what point it might have been done. It often feels like a great black hole that sucks in every moral fibre into its destructive abyss; but I'm hoping there is something that can be done to stop it from gaining momentum rather than just hoping to endure it and come out the other side alive. It feels like Isis is winning, but how do we effectively make them fail?
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
I hope you're wrong, fletcher. I think their greatest weakness, long term, is the way they terrorise those they govern. But Saddam Hussein had the same weakness, remained in power for a long time, and apparently some folks look back with envy on the terrifying stability he produced.
It would be a mistake to underestimate the resilience of ISIS or the purposefulness of those who lead it.
[ 21. November 2016, 11:13: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
Is ISIS winning?
It depends on what the victory conditions for this particular contest are. What do you think they are?
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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mark_in_manchester
not waving, but...
# 15978
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Posted
I find the parallels between the NI situation and Islamists frightening, because ISTM that from what I understand of it, the way that things improved in NI don't translate.
For instance - it became possible for the UK to state that it had 'no selfish strategic interest' (or words to that effect) in NI. The UK and the Republic of Ireland are, today, not such different places. But what does one do with people who want to establish a medieval Islamic caliphate?
It was possible for the religious angle of the NI conflict to be blunted (at least at the highest levels) by ecumenical meetings between 'both sides'. But Islam possesses no such denominational authority structures, and (again, so far as I understand it) in terms of legal structures the highest Sharia court (in Cairo) is firmly in favour of (for instance) the death penalty for Muslim apostates. It's going to be hard to find common ground there.
More cynically, one might hope that rising prosperity oils the wheels which make violence less attractive, and makes fears of prejudicial treatment for jobs and housing less motivating. But some Jihadis have come from wealthy backgrounds, we are told.
So I think your comparison is pertinent, but I can't see grounds for hope. I hope I'm wrong.
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"We are punished by our sins, not for them" - Elbert Hubbard
(so good, I wanted to see it after my posts and not only after those of shipmate JBohn from whom I stole it)
Posts: 1596 | Registered: Oct 2010
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
Daesh is a manifestation of an idea. And, guns and bombs are an incredibly ineffective way of countering an idea, and the jihadist ideas in particular.
The particular manifestation of that idea in Daesh may be defeated, indeed I expect it will be, since it has taken onboard a geopolitical element of establishing a caliphate controlling a particular area of land - remove control over that territory and Daesh is defeated. The problem is that that will only result in a hydra-like re-emergence of the same basic idea elsewhere.
The basic idea, to me, seems to boil down to two basic lines:
1. that it is the duty of Muslims to defend Islam and other Muslims, and that violence is an approrpriate means for this
2. that Islam and Muslims are threatened by Western powers
1 certainly seems to be believed by a large number of Muslims, and there's nothing anyone here can do about that. Ultimately, if that part of the idea is to be defeated it has to be defeated from within Islam itself. Any other attempt to change that will be perceived as an attack on Islam from outside.
2 is something Western powers can, potentially, address. Some policies of governments seem to be almost designed to reinforce the message that Islam is threatened - restrictions on Islamic practice in western nations, suggestions of restrictions on Muslims from travelling to some countries, a tolerance of Islamophobia etc can all be readily interpreted as attacks on Islam. Western involvement in conflicts within Islamic countries, the same. Western criticism of human rights in relation to the status of women or homosexuals, or the freedom to change religion, again can be easily twisted to be attacks on Islam.
The difficulty is that it's not easy to see a way out of the problem. Do we stop campaigning for improved human rights? Can we ignore the treatment (or, rather, mistreatment) of people in Daesh controlled areas and stop supporting Iraqi and Syrian forces fighting Daesh? I don't think there's anything we can do to remove all of the things that can be interpreted as attacks on Islam, and even if we did it'll be impossible to wipe clean the slate of centuries of history of western powers dominating Islamic countries and abuses of muslims. Though, I certainly believe we can do much better than we currently do.
This is a battle for hearts and minds, and we need to be an awful lot smarter and wiser to make progress. Simply sending in troops and aircraft to cut off the head of the philosophy simply allows more heads to grow and take it's place, it makes the hydra stronger. We need to find ways to starve the monster, to deny it the ongoing examples of attacks on Islam so that it can whither naturally. Far easier said than done.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
Posted by Marvin:
quote:
Is ISIS winning?
It depends on what the victory conditions for this particular contest are. What do you think they are?
To deliver a poison to both followers and detractors and hope that all of them swallow it as if a medicine. I suspect they are having more success in seeding their poison in the west than they are in seeding their poison within Islam, but it isn't especially easy to call.
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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hatless
Shipmate
# 3365
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Posted
We need some creative and symbolic action. The US President and or other Western leaders could go on a listening tour of Islamic groups and countries, inviting the young and angry, the victims of Western aggression, Islamic writers and leaders to join him (or her) in public debate. The presidents would have to be willing to be seen learning and reflecting.
Drone strikes could be ended. I occasionally wonder what it must be like to live somewhere that drones are used, but my mind recoils. It will surely take two to three generations before people who have experienced this can begin to take talks, agreements and policies seriously. We had better stop soon.
We can try to assist the development of more wholesome Islamic governments around the world. Currently the West seems to arm Saudi Arabia and do little else.
We can give voice to Muslims in the West.
In every other area of life we accept that grievances are seldom without some justification, and leaders and those who are happy with the way things are have to go round and hear out the unhappy ones. Church life is full of this, so are good industrial relations, good management practice, team building, community liaison and the rest. Listening, it turns out, is a powerful thing, as is the symbolic valuing given by careful, humble attention.
We (the West) need a plan for our own sanity. We have to believe that understanding and co-operation are possible. We have to realise that we can and should start the process. It's not the finest time, right now, but we would certainly have additional publicity if it was Trump, Le Pen and Boris who announced a listening tour of Jakarta, Islamabad, Riyadh and Amman.
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My crazy theology in novel form
Posts: 4531 | From: Stinkers | Registered: Sep 2002
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Posted by Marvin:
quote:
Is ISIS winning?
It depends on what the victory conditions for this particular contest are. What do you think they are?
To deliver a poison to both followers and detractors and hope that all of them swallow it as if a medicine. I suspect they are having more success in seeding their poison in the west than they are in seeding their poison within Islam, but it isn't especially easy to call.
No, that's one of the methods by which they're attempting to achieve their goals. I'm asking what you think their actual goals are?
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by hatless:
In every other area of life we accept that grievances are seldom without some justification, and leaders and those who are happy with the way things are have to go round and hear out the unhappy ones.
It's hard to take that seriously when so many, even on these very boards, are adamant that those who voted for Brexit/Trump are just racists or sexists with no valid justification for their views whatsoever.
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
It's hard to take that seriously when so many, even on these very boards, are adamant that those who voted for Brexit/Trump are just racists or sexists with no valid justification for their views whatsoever.
Whatever. I could swear you participated in those threads, but more than one Remainer has noted that not everyone who voted Brexit did so out of racism and we discussed the other reasons. Since it appears you missed that, I suggest you go back and read those threads.
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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou
Posts: 17627 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008
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hatless
Shipmate
# 3365
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by hatless:
In every other area of life we accept that grievances are seldom without some justification, and leaders and those who are happy with the way things are have to go round and hear out the unhappy ones.
It's hard to take that seriously when so many, even on these very boards, are adamant that those who voted for Brexit/Trump are just racists or sexists with no valid justification for their views whatsoever.
It's just domination by other means. Learning to listen to ISIS 'thugs' or 'terrorists' is on a continuum to listening to 'bigots' who support Trump.
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My crazy theology in novel form
Posts: 4531 | From: Stinkers | Registered: Sep 2002
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
It's hard to take that seriously when so many, even on these very boards, are adamant that those who voted for Brexit/Trump are just racists or sexists with no valid justification for their views whatsoever.
Whatever. I could swear you participated in those threads, but more than one Remainer has noted that not everyone who voted Brexit did so out of racism and we discussed the other reasons. Since it appears you missed that, I suggest you go back and read those threads.
If I'd said "everyone" rather than "so many" then you may have had a point.
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
In the short term, the right wing bigots seem to play into the hands of IS. For example, it's quite possible that the election of Trump, and his campaign, was heartening to the IS leadership, since it 'proves' their contention, that the West hate Muslims, and will continue to persecute them.
However, in the long term, who can say? I don't really know what the long terms of IS are, except the caliphate.
Militarily they seem to be losing, but in terms of propaganda, they are surely on a roll, and if Le Pen is elected, expect more celebrations in IS towers, or wherever they hang out.
There is also the more specific issue of the Sunni tribes in Syria and Iraq, who have sometimes lent support to AQ and IS. What will happen here? If Assad goes on a revenge mission, IS will recruit big time. If Trump goes on a revenge mission, ditto. But he's not so stupid, is he?
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
However, in the long term, who can say? I don't really know what the long terms of IS are, except the caliphate.
You say that as if their caliphate is a minor thing, rather than a new and belligerent country that they believe is the only true expression of Islam in the world, and as such that it should be continually expanding its borders in order to eliminate heretics and apostates and bring about the ultimate triumph of Islam over every other creed.
Their "win condition" is a worldwide caliphate. Ours is to remove them from any political control of territory (because a caliphate - and thus ISIS - cannot exist without territory). On that basis, given that their territory is getting ever smaller, the notion that they are winning is laughable.
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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Martin60
Shipmate
# 368
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Posted
Win-lose is a typical false dichotomy.
The poor you will always have with you. You. We. Us. The rich.
These poor bite.
Always is as long as we do everything and anything rather than universal social justice.
[ 21. November 2016, 14:48: Message edited by: Martin60 ]
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Love wins
Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
Posted by Marvin:
quote:
No, that's one of the methods by which they're attempting to achieve their goals. I'm asking what you think their actual goals are?
I honestly think you're missing it - that is the point and goal. Now it is also of course the establishment of a Caliphate, but how that is defined seems to differ even among themselves. The important aspect seems to be the narrative with the method as the goal and not much beyond that which can be nailed to the mast as a specific goal. It was exactly the same in the IRA campaign. They built of the myth of a narrative that to some extent still exists today and really, it is only the narrative that is carrying that along anymore in Ireland - the narrative that seeds the ideas and self understandings in the minds of people that perpetuates itself. Terrorism needs an enemy, it needs a reaction and baits specifically for that reaction to build into the narrative that it creates and the only way to create that narrative is to seed it in the minds of people in such a way that it's a double edged sword: you feed it into your enemy to get their response and you feed it into your followers to get their support which is in turn based on the reaction of your enemy. It is insanely clever, especially when you can get it to work so perfectly. The question is how do you halt or stop this seeding process in such a way as to make the whole construction collapse, and at what point can we do it in such a way as to make it successful as an outcome.
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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Boogie
Boogie on down!
# 13538
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Posted
Trump will give them plenty of petrol for the flames, sad to say.
ISIS are winning to the extent that people are afraid. Terrorists often 'win' short term. Long term? Not at all.
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Garden. Room. Walk
Posts: 13030 | From: Boogie Wonderland | Registered: Mar 2008
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
In Syria and Iraq, IS are probably waiting to see if the West or Russia start to clobber the Sunni tribes, who have supported them (and AQ). If that happens, all bets are off, but I would think that Western and Russian intelligence are not so daft. On second thoughts, strike that.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
However, in the long term, who can say? I don't really know what the long terms of IS are, except the caliphate.
You say that as if their caliphate is a minor thing, rather than a new and belligerent country that they believe is the only true expression of Islam in the world, and as such that it should be continually expanding its borders in order to eliminate heretics and apostates and bring about the ultimate triumph of Islam over every other creed.
Their "win condition" is a worldwide caliphate. Ours is to remove them from any political control of territory (because a caliphate - and thus ISIS - cannot exist without territory). On that basis, given that their territory is getting ever smaller, the notion that they are winning is laughable.
Well, you did very well there in cutting big chunks from my post, including, 'militarily they seem to be losing'.
It seems to be a standard technique on this forum.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
I honestly think you're missing it - that is the point and goal.
Do you seriously think their actual end goal is to spread fear and hatred around the globe, like some knock-off Bond villain?
quote:
It was exactly the same in the IRA campaign.
The IRA's end goal was the reunification of Ireland.
quote:
Terrorism needs an enemy
Terrorism is a tactic, not a guiding philosophy. That's the whole problem with bullshit like "The War On Terror".
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Well, you did very well there in cutting big chunks from my post,
I used that segment of your post as a springboard to post my own thoughts, nothing more. I wasn't arguing against anything else you said.
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
OK.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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L'organist
Shipmate
# 17338
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Posted
Is ISIS winning? Well, the question is what would "winning" be for them? Or perhaps we should begin to define what would define as "losing" for us - and by us I mean non-muslims worldwide.
IMO a loss for us is that eventually all muslims will be regarded by non-muslims as people with the potential to wish them harm, perhaps to remain passive when harm is done to us, or to facilitate acts that cause harm.
How we've arrived at this pass is by continual failure to acknowledge that for many muslims - and especially those raised in societies where Islam is overwhelmingly the dominant religion - the idea of separating religion from governance is anathema; in addition we have failed utterly to comprehend that pretty much all of the sacred cows of particularly western european and north american society - gender equality, secularity of government, autonomy of children, one-man-one-vote democracy - are not valued by many muslims.
Just to add to our present woes, we have (in the eyes of some, at least) displayed contemptible weakness with our live-and-let-live attitudes - in fact that alone can and is cited as a prime example of the 'decadence' of western societies. An illustration of this (in muslim eyes) can be seen in the way that our governments continue to have friendly relations with, say, Saudi Arabia when everything about that state and its ruling family goes against everything that most of western society holds dear.
Of course, the vast majority of muslims don't share the ISIS view of their religion and would be appalled if they suddenly found themselves living in the caliphate that ISIS says it wants; but equally they can understand some of the points made by ISIS apologists and even have sympathy with some of the views they express.
Is ISIS winning, then? No - because we haven't previously "won" to have anything to lose. What ISIS is doing is causing anarchy, chaos and terror and they are doing that with, for a time at least, singular success.
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Rara temporum felicitate ubi sentire quae velis et quae sentias dicere licet
Posts: 4950 | From: somewhere in England... | Registered: Sep 2012
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
Posted by Marvin:
quote:
Do you seriously think their actual end goal is to spread fear and hatred around the globe, like some knock-off Bond villain?
No, because I don't think there is an end goal. There are some that want some form of Caliphate, but even among that grouping the details differ radically. There are many other grouping that invest in the narrative for their own reasons and it is the narrative that holds all of them together.
In the example of the IRA's end game, they claimed it was the reunification of Ireland, but they implemented it by dividing it further into multiple factions in a way that meant it might be impossible for it to ever come together, precisely because the narrative they had created was to become more important to them than the goal. Their narrative wasn't strong enough to stand with the sheer waves of atrocity which would eventually cause it to crumble (particularly in the cumulative effect of the Enniskillen bombing and perhaps even more especially in the Omagh bombing) but the damage was done and even today parts of the narrative persist, resistant even in the face of mass murder and when the declared goal makes little political and practical sense. So the question today in regards to the IRA is why do some still persist in buying into the narrative? That's not a particularly easy question to answer and certainly not one that is answered using the Dr Evil model, but it is possible to understand why some do it - for profit, for perceived prestige, for martyrdom, the trap of a self imposed victimhood, for misplaced nationalism, for power; but it all boils down to the narrative as far as I can see. All that isn't to say that the IRA and Isis are directly comparable, but there are comparisons even though Isis seem to be far more adept at manipulating the political sphere and the media in a way that far and away outstrips what the IRA would have even dreamed about.
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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Callan
Shipmate
# 525
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by hatless:
The only win is respectful compromise.
What, so they only throw gays, Yazidis and other undesirables off high buildings on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays?
To paraphrase Herbert McCabe, the only way to end the conflict with Islamism is to win it. The idea that you can have a respectful compromise is ludicrous. It may be difficult. It may involve coalitions with forces which are undesirable or deplorable. But Western Democracy and Islamism are incompatible and only one of those two is preferable. I am quite open to the thesis that we have played our hand quite badly. Less open to the thesis that we can somehow come together and parlay our differences into some kind of synthesis.
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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton
Posts: 9757 | From: Citizen of the World | Registered: Jun 2001
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Martin60
Shipmate
# 368
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Posted
Amusing as ever Callan, but it's impossible to win eternal Whac-A-Mole; only to rack up the score. Forever.
Mosul and Al-Raqqah will fall. SCIS can't.
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Love wins
Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
I'm asking what you think their actual goals are?
Broadly speaking, I think they would see their goals as defending Islam and muslims. Defend from heresy, as well as from persecution. And, they see westernism as the enemy - corrupting True Islam™ with such dangerous ideas as democracy, secularism and equality. Exploiting muslim lands for resources (oil) and political advantage. As well as actual persecution, actively preventing muslims from practicing their faith. Many Islamist groups would limit themselves to preaching and teaching muslims to remain true to their faith. Others would engage in terrorist acts. Daesh have added the idea of a caliphate, a geopolitical state where muslims can live their faith in purity without the compromises of engaging with the west - except, of course, in establishing the caliphate they put themselves in direct opposition to existing (compromised in their view) nation states, and particularly by engaging in terrorist activities, directly opposing western interests.
Of course, within Islamist groups there is a wide variety of different interests. There are differences about what constitutes faithfulness to Islam, in the particular parts of western secularism they find most dangerous and their response. And, individuals are involved for a wide range of personal reasons, many of them a lot less pure than defending Islam - seeking personal renown, wanting to have power over others, simple thuggery.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Ricardus
Shipmate
# 8757
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Posted
I think the questions 'What are the goals of ISIS or the IRA?' are separate from the question 'Why would anyone think those goals are worthwhile?'
There is, to me, something disturbingly incomprehensible about Bobby Sands starving himself to death. Partly because it's hard to see how Irish reunification could be worth it, and partly because what is, in itself, a supremely self-sacrificing form of non-violent protest sits uneasily with the general murderousness of the IRA. So if you were to ask what were the goals of Bobby Sands, the answer would be warped and twisted. But if the question is about the goal of the IRA, then it was fairly clearly the reunification of Ireland, and it lost. The goal of ISIS likewise seems quite clearly to be the establishment of a caliphate, and it too seems to be losing.
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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)
Posts: 7247 | From: Liverpool, UK | Registered: Nov 2004
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hatless
Shipmate
# 3365
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
quote:
Originally posted by hatless:
The only win is respectful compromise.
What, so they only throw gays, Yazidis and other undesirables off high buildings on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays?
To paraphrase Herbert McCabe, the only way to end the conflict with Islamism is to win it. The idea that you can have a respectful compromise is ludicrous. It may be difficult. It may involve coalitions with forces which are undesirable or deplorable. But Western Democracy and Islamism are incompatible and only one of those two is preferable. I am quite open to the thesis that we have played our hand quite badly. Less open to the thesis that we can somehow come together and parlay our differences into some kind of synthesis.
That's a depressing opinion.
Islamism may be impossible to compromise with, but people can compromise, both Islamists and Westerners.
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My crazy theology in novel form
Posts: 4531 | From: Stinkers | Registered: Sep 2002
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simontoad
Ship's Amphibian
# 18096
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Posted
I challenge the view that the IRA were successful, but listen respectfully to people from Ireland and the UK. My challenge is based on talking with people who I stayed with in County Cork back in 1990, family friends of longstanding. They were a family of Catholic people who were born around the 1940's, and who's children were born in the 1960's. They ran a small business in a small town. The view of the mother was that the IRA were just criminals who killed Irish women and children, not Irish Nationalists at all, but gangsters. The only people who were interested in the IRA were hothead youths with no prospects. Her son, then in his early 20's, liked to make out that he was connected to the IRA, but his siblings found that highly risible. This would-be terrorist is now a doting Dad.
I've just finished a book, Black Flags: The Rise of ISIS by Joby Warrick. The book feels like its really about a bloke called Zarqawi, a Jordanian who ran Al Qaeda in Iraq. The bit about Isis is tacked on, and the author says that Isis grew out of the ruins of Al Qaeda in Iraq. What evs. The point is that the brutal methodology of both organisations undermines its support among Sunni Islam, it's target group. By defining 'muslim' in such a narrow way, and killing thousands of Sunnis and other so-called heretical Muslims, it has alienated its natural supporters, including other radical Islamists. In this way, its power and area of control has passed its zenith. Without genuine success, ISIS supporters are already dead men walking.
[ 21. November 2016, 22:56: Message edited by: simontoad ]
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Human
Posts: 1571 | From: Romsey, Vic, AU | Registered: May 2014
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mdijon
Shipmate
# 8520
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
Less open to the thesis that we can somehow come together and parlay our differences into some kind of synthesis.
Why not? You have segued from ideas to people here. True, radical Islam and Western Democracy don't have an obvious middle ground that would suit either, but neither of those entities can put on a tie and negotiate around a table.
ISIS is populated and supported by Sunnis who didn't care much for radical ideology until they were given a sustained kicking by the West and the Shiites in the area apparently acting together. Those people might well be susceptible to compromise. Granted it gets less realistic given recent history, but I wouldn't regard it as an unprincipled stand to hope for.
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mdijon nojidm uoɿıqɯ ɯqıɿou
ɯqıɿou uoɿıqɯ nojidm mdijon
Posts: 12277 | From: UK | Registered: Sep 2004
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mdijon
Shipmate
# 8520
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by simontoad:
My challenge is based on talking with people who I stayed with in County Cork back in 1990
They may not be representative of Northern Irish Catholic views of the (provisional) IRA. I remember being told that the IRA were a bunch of sadistic thugs and crooks with no genuine political aims but it makes no sense of the fact that most of the violence stopped when the peace process worked. It's true that the IRA (yet again) splintered with the peace process with a continuing element still committed to terrorism but it was very much reduced presence and hasn't derailed the peace process.
Would the British government have pushed the devolved assembly forward in the absence of the IRA? If not, is that a measure of success for the IRA?
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mdijon nojidm uoɿıqɯ ɯqıɿou
ɯqıɿou uoɿıqɯ nojidm mdijon
Posts: 12277 | From: UK | Registered: Sep 2004
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:
Islam is overwhelmingly the dominant religion - the idea of separating religion from governance is anathema; in addition we have failed utterly to comprehend that pretty much all of the sacred cows of particularly western european and north american society - gender equality, secularity of government, autonomy of children, one-man-one-vote democracy - are not valued by many muslims.
There is a significant minority of people in the US who believe the same thing if you replace 'Islam' with 'Christian'.
quote:
Just to add to our present woes, we have (in the eyes of some, at least) displayed contemptible weakness with our live-and-let-live attitudes -
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seen in the way that our governments continue to have friendly relations with, say, Saudi Arabia
This is pernicious nonsense that seeks to make tolerance for Islam in the West of a piece with support for Saudi Arabia.
Saudi hasn't been supported by people shouting for 'tolerance' but rather those who support some measure of 'real politick' (who on rare occasions co-opt inclusive language to justify some of their policies).
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mdijon:
quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
Less open to the thesis that we can somehow come together and parlay our differences into some kind of synthesis.
Why not? You have segued from ideas to people here. True, radical Islam and Western Democracy don't have an obvious middle ground that would suit either, but neither of those entities can put on a tie and negotiate around a table.
ISIS is populated and supported by Sunnis who didn't care much for radical ideology until they were given a sustained kicking by the West and the Shiites in the area apparently acting together. Those people might well be susceptible to compromise. Granted it gets less realistic given recent history, but I wouldn't regard it as an unprincipled stand to hope for.
We pretty much know that this can work, given the history of Sunni tribes fighting against AQ. Some of these had probably supported them at first, along the lines of the enemy of my enemy, but they were repelled by AQ's methods.
The so-called 'Awakening' was no doubt partly fuelled by cash and weapons and promises of political participation, but it worked and AQ were driven out.
Unfortunately, after that there were claims that the Iraqui govt reneged on the deal. In fact, some sheikhs talk of their tribesmen being imprisoned and tortured all over again. Hence, IS found support.
Some talk of a Sunni autonomous region in both Syria and Iraq - who knows if this is possible. But you can bet that efforts are being made to produce another Awakening, although it's unclear how Assad will react to this.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
Footnote - if Assad and Russia want to pulverize the Sunni tribes in Syria, this could get ugly. I don't know if there is any mood for compromise now, after all the destruction.
Another point, some of the officers and fighters in the Awakening were patriotic Iraquis who didn't want to see their country torn apart by terrorism. It wasn't all about cash.
[ 22. November 2016, 09:29: Message edited by: quetzalcoatl ]
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Martin60
Shipmate
# 368
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Posted
Exactly, it's all about justice for the Sunni majority in Syria and minority in Iraq.
A federal, canton solution is needed for Syria-Iraq, Neo-Chaldea.
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Love wins
Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
Yes, it seems obvious from the outside. Of course, the hostilities between different groups are quite bitter. However, the Sunni tribes are not idiots.
We're not talking about Sunni sheikhs arriving in Downing St for tea, are we? But compromise is possible. I suppose Russia will determine this to an extent.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Martin60
Shipmate
# 368
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Posted
All parties need to acknowledge that it's a zero sum game, as they very mainly did in NI. That's all parties. Including geopolitical players: Russia, Europe-NATO-US, Turkey, regional Sunni, Kurds, Shia sub-groups. That means constant, open jaw-jaw with all parties in somewhere like Bosnia or Albania or even on the green line in Cyprus. The aim: The Neo-Chaldean Federation. You read it here first.
[ 22. November 2016, 11:07: Message edited by: Martin60 ]
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Love wins
Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001
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no prophet's flag is set so...
Proceed to see sea
# 15560
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
There is a significant minority of people in the US who believe the same thing if you replace 'Islam' with 'Christian'.
Ahem. #NotMyJesus . #NotJesus'Jesus .
Suspect Allah has a few tweets to make too.
[ 22. November 2016, 12:42: Message edited by: no prophet's flag is set so... ]
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Out of this nettle, danger, we pluck this flower, safety.
\_(ツ)_/
Posts: 11498 | From: Treaty 6 territory in the nonexistant Province of Buffalo, Canada ↄ⃝' | Registered: Mar 2010
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
Posted by Prophets flag:
quote:
Ahem. #NotMyJesus . #NotJesus'Jesus .
Suspect Allah has a few tweets to make too.
...just so long as its not a selfie.
Sorry, I just couldn't resist. I'll get my coat...
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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Ricardus
Shipmate
# 8757
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Posted
Didn't he already do that in Genesis 1:27?
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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)
Posts: 7247 | From: Liverpool, UK | Registered: Nov 2004
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