Thread: Circus: Mafia - the Valley of the Kings Board: Limbo / Ship of Fools.


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Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
It’s been too long… With the permission of our august and benevolent Circus hosts, welcome to a new mafia game.

For those unfamiliar with the game (or the particular way we play it here on the Ship) there are a couple of old games archived in Limbo. If I do say so myself, this one features me wiping out a whole town [Snigger] Looking at previous games will also acquaint you with some of the Ship’s regular players, which could be handy. You can also look at the Wikipedia page for Mafia (game). This is my first attempt at moderating, so I’m not planning anything too complicated (although there may a couple of little twists to keep myself entertained [Biased] )

I’ll leave sign-up open until the end of the week and come back with detailed rules when it gets to that. Please make sure you are going to have regular internet access for the duration otherwise these games tend to drag on interminably. Realistically I think you’ll need to be able to get on-line at least every 24 hours or so.

So off we go for another round of murder and conspiracy [Cool] Are you sitting comfortably? Then I’ll begin…

______________________

Camp Sarastro is blistering under the heat of the Egyptian sun. The mercury is about to hit 38°.

But the camp’s leader, Lord Archibald Whisker, doesn’t even notice the sweltering heat. He’s almost giddy with excitement. A mere 18 hours ago, all his long years of searching finally paid off. No matter how impossible it seemed, no matter how many times he was told to forget about it, he’d always known that it had to be there. And now at last he’s proved them all wrong and found it – the long-lost and unopened tomb of Pharaoh Senkhet III himself.

As Whisker walked inside the entrance yesterday and read the hieroglyphs by the flickering light of his torch, he knew he’d been born for this moment. He first read the story of Senkhet as a small boy, and with the passing years it has become an obsession. The search has cost him thousands of pounds, and eventually caused his friends and acquaintances to question his sanity, but he never doubted that it had to be true.

They haven’t got very far inside yet, but he’s sure that they’re going to find treasures on a scale never before seen in the history of Egyptology. The young king Senkhet was said to be rich beyond imagining, and was buried in a manner befitting one called a son of the gods. They’ve pulled out a few artefacts already and they are magnificent – gold cups and small pieces of jewellery sparkling with gems that are still bright millennia after they were hidden away. The hieroglyphs seem as bright as the day when they were painted. No one will ever forget Archibald Whisker or his unprecedented discovery.

One thing is gnawing away at him, nonetheless. Whisker is of course familiar with the curse that was placed on Senkhet’s tomb when it was sealed, which he has never been quite able to dismiss as a legend. After all, wasn’t Senkhet himself supposed to be a legend? Considering the dazzling riches that he knew to be contained there, he had decided it was a risk worth taking, but in the last couple of days, he’s been given pause. A line broke yesterday, breaking the arm of one of the Egyptian workers, and another found a snake in his bag. A couple of days earlier, one of the Europeans was unwell with a fever and vomiting. The doctor said that he’d eaten something that disagreed with him, but Whisker is secretly disquieted. He pushes it out of his mind and thinks back to the untold riches that await him underground.
_________________________

Archeologists, local workers and hangers-on of all descriptions are all welcome at Camp Sarastro. Don’t forget your sun-hats.

[ 03. May 2011, 13:35: Message edited by: Chorister ]
 
Posted by Hart (# 4991) on :
 
Haji was unsure what to think about this foreigner, Whisker's, excavation. He spent a restless Thursday night tossing and turning, unsure of what to preach to his flock at Friday prayers the next day. As their Imam, he knew they'd be looking to him for leadership

On the one hand, he was pleased that more jobs would be available in this area. And, of course, he didn't believe in all of this curse mumbo jumbo. But he did worry that other people would and this would distract them from true religion. We shouldn't be reminding people of Egypt's pagan past, but concentrating on our Islamic future.

[ 10. October 2010, 16:33: Message edited by: Hart ]
 
Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
 
Andrew was Lord Archibald Whisker's son. His father initiated him in egyptology in his early childhood, and he loved the ancient way. In fact, he was a believer in the old gods, but he kept his faith secret. Not even his father knew about his son's religious practices.

The wealth left him cold. It was all about the ancient artifacts. In that tomb, there were relics of unimaginable importance, religious objects of immense power. The ancients have dwelled into the mysteries of the after life, and their gods, the true gods, were more powerful than anything else in the world. Andrew felt it was time for the old religion to be revived, and the other members of his sect agreed with him.
 
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
 
I'm in.

I usually like to see what my character is hiding before choosing a public persona, but if vie would prefer us to give names and backgrounds now then I will.
 
Posted by CuppaT (# 10523) on :
 
Papagena was small and black. Her ancestors had wandered around the tombs for centuries, in and out unnoticed among both the silent ones and the noisy camps. Mostly Papagena watched. Occasionally her tail would twitch back and forth as she thought.
 
Posted by AristonAstuanax (# 10894) on :
 
Oh no—Eliab's playing again? We're all doomed.

Lieutenant Owain D. R. Madoc, 24th Regiment of Foot hung his heavy wool coat on a tent pole (who's brilliant idea was it to issue coats to soldiers in a desert?) and set to work cleaning and polishing his rifle. Again.
Quite honestly, he wasn't sure what exactly he and his men were supposed to be doing in this Godforsaken desert (something about "looking for Frenchmen" was what he'd heard from Major Davies, but, as far as he was concerned, the bloody frogs could have this awful Hellhole to themselves), but, if they were here, they might as well be civilized. Plus, all that gold Lord Whasisname kept talking about wasn't going to guard itself, now was it?
 
Posted by Herrick (# 15226) on :
 
Professor Craig Champion, world renowned expert in Egyptology, hieroglyphics and the Royal Dynasties of Egypt. Craig poured himself a small sherry before sitting at his desk in Oxford and picking up the scarab headed letter opener to open the latest correspondence from his source in north Africa.
 
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
 
I'm in.
Name and details to follow.
 
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
 
(Can we have an indication of what year this is?)
 
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
When would you like it to be ? [Biased]

I'm thinking first half of the twentieth century, but hadn't really got it much more detailed than that.
 
Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
 
Mr Seth wrapped his head lightly in the linen and turned to face the the sand laden wind. Despite the dry air and blistering conditions, he knew he was on to a winner. Mechanical help out here was of little use to anyone on a dig. The sand destroyed everything when the wind got up. Mr Seth knew his camels would come in handy sooner or later and it was only a matter of waiting and negotiating a price.
 
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on :
 
I'm in, I think. Character to follow...
 
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on :
 
Tavish McCallum rubbed the remainder of the evening's meal from his ginger moustache.
He couldn't remember explicitly agreeing to help Whisker out on his expedition, nor the terms of his "employment", but if you choose to conduct business whilst in the Vale of Tranquility then that's your own silly fault, which ever side of the table you were on (or under) at the time.

Besides, Tavish's dad had been a long time pal of Archie's father, Major General Bertram Whisker when they served in the Army. (Tavish smiled at remembering his dad's nickname for the Major - "saved-by-a" - following his ability to narrowly cheat death, helped in no small part by the quick thinking of his right hand man, old man McCallum).

The heat and the sun wasn't helping his fair complexion - you never got weather like this back in Auchenshoogle - and the local brew wasn't on a par with his usual tipple at the old Hog's Oxters, but if there was gold to be had in helping the memory of his old man be continued, doing a family friend a favour, he could put up with that for the time being.

[ 12. October 2010, 13:05: Message edited by: Wet Kipper ]
 
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by AristonAstuanax:
Oh no—Eliab's playing again? We're all doomed.

depends if you're on Eliab's side or not [Two face]
 
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Wet Kipper:
quote:
Originally posted by AristonAstuanax:
Oh no—Eliab's playing again? We're all doomed.

depends if you're on Eliab's side or not [Two face]
You also have to factor in that his nemesis (ie me) isn't playing this time [Biased]

(the scores are currently at one each - I have caught him once, and he has murdered me once)

OTOH, a Shiply mafia game just isn't the same without Eliab Eliabssen and I for one am glad he's in.

Currently we have nine players, ten if Imaginary Friend decides to join:

Hart
El Greco
CuppaT
Ariston Astuanax
Herrick
Dafyd
Eliab
fletcher christian
Wet Kipper
(Imaginary Friend)

I think Camp Sarastro could do with a few more women - don't be shy ladies! (although extra male players are obviously welcome as well)
 
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on :
 
I could play a lady, if that helps.
 
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on :
 
Lady Bernadine Haighton-Chatworthy is in!
 
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
 
Rose Autenrieth settled her sunhat a little more firmly. The best part of her graduate program in archaeology was coming on these digs. Who knew what might be discovered?
 
Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
 
Arsène Beauregard leant back in his armchair in the shade of his tentscreen, careful not to dishevel his long black hair, stroking his moustache complacently. A gentle sigh of pleasure greeted the glass of lemonade Ahmed had brought him as he watched the group assembled at a small distance. Life in the desert had become rather lively of late. The arrival of these étrangers brought a pleasant kind of buzz to the dunes. But, goodness, how uncultivated they were! One of them even did his rifle-cleaning in public and broad daylight! And how superstitious they all were, delightful!

Secure in the knowledge that his great-grandfather had once landed in these parts with the général! and due to the fact that Arsène himself had settled here a few years ago he felt entitled to a first-comer's extra-dose of Gallic arrogance towards these Eengleesh.

Still, curiosity and a longing for European food had made him get involved with this funny bunch of grave-diggers. About his other motives he was determined to keep silent a bit longer ...

PS:
I should like to join but from tomorrow until 15 Oct I can probably only get online a bit irregularly. After that I am fine. If that is too big a problem Arsène shall have to withdraw.
 
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
I'm happy to do my best to help Arsène play the game. I'm planning to distribute roles this weekend - let me know (by PM) if you Arsène needs me to proxy vote for him at any point.

rouge x

(got in a muddle about who's whose proxy [Hot and Hormonal] )

[ 13. October 2010, 13:26: Message edited by: la vie en rouge ]
 
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
(the scores are currently at one each - I have caught him once, and he has murdered me once)

(I'd score it one-nil in your favour. It being a team game, and only the team result counting for anything, the one concluded game between us was won by you.

I was quite pleased with the way I played both games, because the tactical aim of identifying and eliminating most or all of the town's ‘specials' was achieved, but that means nothing unless it's converted into a team victory."
 
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
 
A suggestion to make before we start (and before I know whether I benefit from it): don't give the town too many specials. It's possible (and IMAO, more satisfying) for the town to win by deduction rather than investigation, and I think it's a better game if the town is under time pressure to guess right, rather than expecting their detectives to solve everything.
 
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on :
 
Lady Bernardine Haighton-Chatsworthy leaned back on the camel, making her formidable stays creak alarmingly. It may be hot, but the elegantly tailored ladies safari jacket would simply not look proper without the right foundations underneath it. She adjusted the net veil which swathed her pith helmet and with her riding crop tapped the shoulder of the camelteer beside her impatiently.

"I am very keen to get going you know. Why on earth is everyone taking so long to get ready?"

Lady Bernardine, knowing that some on this expedition might think her a hindrance, had been up since the crack of dawn. She was more than ready, because she had been commandeering people to do all kinds of things on her behalf for the last two hours. She had no notion whatever that this might not be taken well in some quarters. After all, she was the money.

It was her bankroll that was underwriting the expedition, and she was coming along to make sure that everything went according to plan as much as possible. She was absolutely determined that her guineas, and any artefacts found, were not going to 'disappear' through the hands of shady dealings. This was her bounden duty and she was going to see it through to its right conclusion.

She tapped the camelteer on the shoulder again. "Well?"
 
Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
 
Thanks, l.i.r.
I'll do my best to log on whenever I can, as I am moving from town to town until mid-week it will depend on the infrastructure of French and Breton internet cafés.
Will let you know if vote by proxy is required.
 
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
Bernadine needs to be patient a little bit longer, but we'll be starting soon. I'm going to hand out roles this Saturday afternoon my time (GMT+2). Feel free to explore the desert in the meantime tho.

So far we have unlucky 13 players:

Hart
El Greco
CuppaT
Ariston Astuanax
Herrick
Dafyd
Eliab
fletcher christian
Wet Kipper
Imaginary Friend
Banner Lady
Autenrieth Road
Sylvander

Any more for any more?
 
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
 
Sergeant Dai Mortal, discharged, sat in the bar with a whisky wondering how to persuade the barman to let him have another. He was of course perfectly sober. It wasn't even lunchtime yet.
He wished he was back home. He wished it would rain.
The news of the tomb filled him with dread and foreboding. Nothing good came of opening tombs. Only spiders and noises in the night and tentacles...
 
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on :
 
The photo opportunity on the camel now being over, Lady Bernardine descended down the steps Seth had so obligingly placed next to the beast. It was still complaining loudly as she paid for the plate and arranged for copies of the photo to be sent back to all her friends in the Society of the Eastern Star in England. She hoped the photographer was trustworthy. One simply never knew with these foreign types, so she hinted at arranging much more business for him as the dig progressed.
 
Posted by Sir Kevin (# 3492) on :
 
I'm refusing to play because in the last two games I was deprived of any active participation after a miniscule amount of elapsed time!
 
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on :
 
I've just had a good idea for a character, but I don't have time to write it up right now. Will tomorrow be okay?
 
Posted by AristonAstuanax (# 10894) on :
 
"Well, Lieutenent, in order to do that, we'd need more rations shipped from Britain."
"All I want, sir, is for my men to have enough to live off of. Is that really such an unreasonable request?"
"We're in the middle of a desert, Mr. Madoc. When have you seen any food that we didn't have shipped in ourselves?"

Owain dearly wanted to tell Captain Davies that the souk really wasn't that far away, and was usually full of food, but that would probably get him a good lecture on "what is fit food for an Englishman." Lieutenent Madoc had received several such lectures from his superior officer, which were all the more infuriating coming from the only Englishman in the company.

"No, no sir. I have not seen any such thing."

Well, it wasn't much of a lie. Truth be told, he hadn't seen much food that had been shipped in.

Owain left the commander's headquarters and found his colour sergeant.

"Mr. Coombs—"
"Sir?"
"Get your men together while I have a word with the quartermaster. We may be conducting a raid in force this afternoon."
"Yes sir."

A quick visit to the quartermaster sergeant and Lieutenant Madoc had a small amount of "unauthorized" funds, a small train of camels, and enough sacks and baskets to conduct a sizable raid on the market. Gathering intelligence, outthinking your enemy, and seeking any advantage you could against your opponent—these were the skills that Owain had learned in the army, and was about to employ in haggling in the souk.

"Platoon, atten-TION!"
 
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on :
 
" Dearest Madeleine,
I have at last arrived at Camp Sarastro. The journey was quite arduous, although I believe I have already acquainted you with the vicissitudes of life in Cairo. No, my dear, I do not think the desert is at all romantic. There was a scorpion in one of my shoes this morning. Naturally I disposed of it myself, without troubling the native porters who are quite spooked by the meerest things. They are a funny lot, and extremely uncivilized. How they ever managed to build more than simple huts I will never know.
Anyway, to answer your question, yes there is something you can do for me. I am enclosing a special packet of my jottings for the Society. Please deliver them to the Secretary as soon as you get them. Thank you my dear.
Yours etc.
L__y B. Haighton-Chats__y"

Lady B. signed the note with a flourish, sealed it into a large waxed envelope along with a small packet of papers, and went to look for a deliverer. She knew Archie regularly sent and received things via a postbag, but she did not know whose job it was, as yet, to ride in and out of camp with the mail. She hoped it was one of the splendid looking military gentlemen, and not some ragtag native boy.

"Yoohoo! Yoohoo, Archie-kins! I want to ask you something!"...
 
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
No problem for writing up your character today/tomorrow, IF.

Sir Kevin, if I could guarantee your survival at least 24 hours of game time (and I can because I'm in charge here at Camp Sarastro [Biased] ), would you be persuaded to play?
 
Posted by Smudgie (# 2716) on :
 
Sand. Sand in her shoes and in her stockings and even between her toes. Sand in her pockets. Sand in her eyes, and her nostrils, and under her fingernails. Sand, even, in her cucumber sandwiches which she had so carefully prepared for the journey.

When Miss Hyacinth Smudgeson had packed her bags and left the sorrows of her lonely life behind her, she had never expected to end up in such an alien environment. She would never be in danger of mistaking her new home for England's green and pleasant land. But still, she was sure that even in this seemingly unwelcoming and blisteringly lot place there must be people in need of a good traditional cup of tea and a scone. And perhaps in the bustle of the archeological dig she would find sufficient diversion to help her forget the heartless way her betrothed had betrayed her.

With determination, Hyacinth strode forth towards the tent where she had been told there was a place for her to set up shop, providing refreshments for the workers and people of the camp. What excitement lay ahead, she did not know, but once the kettle was on she knew she would feel more at home.
 
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
Fourteen players now:

Hart
El Greco
CuppaT
Ariston Astuanax
Herrick
Dafyd
Eliab
fletcher christian
Wet Kipper
Imaginary Friend
Banner Lady
Autenrieth Road
Sylvander
Smudgie (so glad we're going to be able to get a good cup of tea out here in the desert)

Anyone else want to slip in under the wire before we start?
 
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on :
 
with the hours of the strongest sun now over, Tavish stepped out frmo under the shelter of the awning in front of his tent.
This place was getting busier by the minute, full of helpers and scroungers in equal measure, he'd wager.
He went for a look around to see who was who and what was what. He didn't like the look of those camels, though. And he'd heard there might actually be a chance of a good cuppa somewhere.

[ 15. October 2010, 15:19: Message edited by: Wet Kipper ]
 
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on :
 
Professor Montgomery Llewellyn Stewart McBride had arrived back at the camp about 12 hours earlier. His own excavation (located approximately 9 miles south-west of Lord Whisker's dig) had so far yielded nothing but a few broken pots, the odd camel bone and some human remains which looked worrying recent in origin. On his arrival back at the camp he had been dismayed to hear of his rival's success. The tomb of Pharaoh Senkhet III! It was a miracle. A blinding, damnable, irritating miracle. Of course, the professor's opinion of Lord Whiskers was low (who calls themselves after a brand of cat food anyways, even if the feline was a sacred animal to the Egyptians) but this really took the biscuit! How could such a fool be so lucky?

As Professor McBride paced up and down inside his tent he could barely contain his rage. Now he had a decision to make: continue with his own excavation in the hope that something will turn up, of swallow his pride and ingratiate himself with the idiot who stumbled upon this treasure trove of archaeological action in the hope that he might be able to wangle his way into the exploration party. "Somebody with a brain has to be there," he fumed to himself, "or those idiots will ruin the whole thing. But how to do it?"

It was late that night before McBride was able to sleep, but by the time he started to drift off, the beginnings of a plan was starting to become clear...
 
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
You should all have your PMs by now – let me know if any problems. As usual the roles have been distributed at random by Mr. Excel.

Any of the following may be in play (I shan’t tell you how many of each):

The Guardians of Senkhet are the mafia. They can kill one person overnight.

The masons can be assured of each other’s innocence. However they may not communicate with each other except on the thread (i.e. no PMs).

The doctor may protect one person from assassination overnight. Please note that a doctor may not protect him or herself.

Hercule Poirot (no doubt very cunningly disguised here at Camp Sarastro [Biased] ) is the detective and may investigate one person each night.

The vigilante may kill one person overnight on the days on which no one is lynched (and those days only). For clarity, the vigilante may take a pop at whoever s/he likes –it doesn’t have to be a player who was nominated for lynching.

The miller is innocent, but looks guilty when investigated by the detective. This is a bit of a bugger for the person in question (sorry ‘bout that).

The defector investigates one person per night. If that person turns out to be one of the Guardians of Senkhet, the defector has the option of joining them (but is not obliged to do so).

If the veteran is murdered, s/he kills his/her attacker (to be clear – both the murderer and the veteran will be killed).

Citizens are everyone else.

It would help me if the Guardians of Senkhet could please choose a leader so that there’s just one central person for me to communicate with. Let me know who the chief conspirator is – thanks.

Please note that only the mafia are allowed to communicate with each other behind the scenes. Obviously if the rest of you want to send PMs/emails/carrier pigeons, there’s nothing I can do to stop you, but it’s not the best way to play the game, and in any case there’s no way of knowing that any information you receive by PM is actually true.

Rules for this round – please read carefully:

Each day begins either when someone posts a death scene, or when I announce that no one has been murdered. Following that, there is a round of accusations – nominations and defence will run simultaneously and probably last about 48 hours, or until I make a completely undemocratic unilateral decision that it’s over [Razz] . There is no limit to the number of nominations each day, but no player may make more than one nomination per round, and nominations cannot be withdrawn once made.

You are not obliged to defend yourself if accused, but it might be best. [Biased] I will not be giving notice of “lynch or lose” moments.

Following that, there will be a vote. Any player who gets 51% or more (i.e. absolute majority) of the vote is lynched. Voting is compulsory for all players . (For this reason, please let me know ASAP if you unexpectedly have to go off-line so the game doesn’t get held up too much).

After that, night falls, those of you who have night actions tell me what they are, and the rest of you get a good night’s sleep. No posting to the thread during the night phase please.

As usual, a bit of haunting is ok, but séances and the like are not allowed (even if consulting with the dead might be quite appropriate here in the Valley of the Kings). Also no revealing of information in death scenes. If you are among the unlucky ones who don’t survive the duration, whatever you know will have to go with you to the grave, I’m afraid.

And with that, the sun comes up over Camp Sarastro…
 
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
It is almost eight in the morning, and strangely, Lord Whisker has not yet awaked. Following his feverish excitement yesterday, his assistants were sure he would be up before dawn. Finally one of them goes to check on him and find out the plans for the day’s digging.
A few moments later, a piercing scream rings out across Camp Sarastro. The assistant runs from Lord Whisker’s tent pale and shaking. As the other members of the party look inside his tent to find out the cause of the commotion, they are greeted by a horrifying sight. Lord Whiskers is sitting up on his cot stone dead, an arrow shot expertly into his heart. His face is stuck in an expression somewhere between horror and bewildered incomprehension.

On closer inspection, a note is found attached to the arrow. It reads:

YOU WERE WARNED
ACCURSED BE THE ONE WHO DISTURBS THE SLEEP OF HIS MAJESTY
THE KING SHALL REST IN PEACE
- THE GUARDIANS OF SENKHET


So, who could be responsible for this heinous crime? If you think anyone is looking shifty, feel free to accuse them now.

(As you see, we’re starting with a nomination phase. Whenever we play this game, there seems to be agreement that it sucks a bit to be bumped off before you’ve have chance to play. So I’m letting you all have one go at voting while you’re still alive.)

Since it’s currently the weekend and I understand that it could take some of you a little while to get organised, nominations will remain open until at least Tuesday night my time. Please make your nominations in bold to make sure I don’t miss any of them.
 
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
 
Eli Abrahams rolls his eyes and shrugs at the news of Lord Whisker’s death. He had neither personal dislike for, nor grievance against, the British aristocrat, but neither does he imagine that the deceased would have felt any sorrow had their positions been reversed, and thus feels no impulse to mourn him. The death confirms what Eli had begun to suspect, the Whisker was right about the resting place of the dead king, and for once Eli had been misguided in accepting his usual (high) fee for arranging local supplies, bearers and labourers, rather than providing them at his own expense in expectation of a share in the profits of success. He shrugs again. Such is life, and the money, already resting safely in a Cairo bank, will not be worth any less because of a gamble not taken.

Besides, the line of said bearers and labourers streaming away from the camp in fear, all of them due to be paid by Mr Abrahams in arrears, represents a golden opportunity to renegotiate the position with whoever intends to take charge of the expedition. Eli smiles to himself. The
goyim would be surprised if he didn’t. He thinks how the Englishmen would react if, instead, he went to them full of apologies for the desertion of his labourers, and offering to replace them at his own expense – and almost laughs out loud. For a moment, he seriously entertains the idea of doing it – and seeing how they would deal with the overturning of all their preconceptions about a Middle-Eastern Jew. Then he comes to his senses – he had, after all, never met an Englishman who did not deserve to be treated in exactly the way that the English expect foreigners to treat them. The fools never understood that it wasn’t their money that really mattered to Abrahams. Honestly, he already had enough. The money was simply a very convenient, and very enjoyable, way of keeping score.
 
Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
 
News travels fast on desert winds and Seth heard early of the death of Lord Whiskers. He knew of the Westerners paranormal tales of disturbed tombs, but this didn't sound too paranormal. He started to wonder at the wisdom of sitting out in the desert with only a few of his camels for protection.
 
Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
 
Compassionate and gracious,
slow to anger, abounding in love are thou, oh great Senkhet.

You will not always accuse,
nor will you harbor your anger forever;

you do not treat us as our sins deserve
or repay us according to our iniquities.

For as high as the heavens are above the earth,
so great is your love for those who fear you and their families;

As a father has compassion on his children,
so Senkhet has compassion on those who fear him;

For he knows how we are formed,
he remembers that we are his servants.


Andrew was finishing his morning prayers to his Protector-God, when he heard people screaming. Calm, he went to see what happened, and came back in his prayer room horrified. His father, the great Egyptologist Lord Whiskers had been murdered.

Quickly, he grabbed a piece of paper and wrote a few lines. He sealed the paper with wax, and wrote at the front: "IN CASE OF VIOLENT DEATH. TO BE READ THREE DAYS AFTER I GET MURDERED. ANDREW WHISKERS, SERVANT OF THE OLD GODS"

He hid the paper in a safe place.

Oh great Senkhet,
accept in your bosom my father
the lover of Egypt
Regenerate him
and guide him in the life after this life...


Andrew was chanting the ancient prayers for the passage to the world beyond. He performed the rites with great diligence, and he put his faith in the Gods that his father, though ignorant of the spiritual world, would be guided through the Great Process with success.

If his suspicions were to be true, then his own life was in serious danger. But he knew his life was worth nothing. So he didn't ask for the great God Suv to protect him from violent death. He believed the God-Bird had better fly fast so that he could protect them that mattered the most.

If I don't die, he thought, I will be able to put foot on the marvelous and sacred sanctuary, and I will call upon Him Who Cannot be Named from the holy ground my father was about to discover. And if I die, I will speak from the world of the Dead, and I will let the entire Egypt know about the sinister money-hangry people that have nothing to do with the Old Ways, about them who I suspect murdered my father, blaspheming Great and Peaceful Senkhet in the process.
 
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
 
Dai Mortal had known it was going to happen. He'd warned them. He'd told people (although the bartender was the only person who hadn't been able to back slowly away). The English Lord was dead. And, though Dai hadn't seen the arrow, he just knew that it must be an arrow Of No Human Shape.
This was only going to lead to tentacles. Tentacles and thousands of little black spiders...

He went back into the bar to get a drink.
 
Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
 
Arsene Beauregard awoke from a nightmare. He was in a world where the keyboard was all muddled. It was Bretonic. Unfortunately Arsene did not even know what a keyboard was.
Alas he awoke from one nightmare into another. One of the silly Englishmen had managed to get himself murdered.
Arsene decided the most important was to get properly shaved and dressed.
 
Posted by Hart (# 4991) on :
 
Haji could see that these foreigners were a very violent people. First that raid on the markets that he knew was due to them, and now they start knocking each other off. He was sure that something had to be done, one of them had to be brought to justice... but he didn't know who. He would meditate until feeling more sure of himself before deciding on a path forward.
 
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on :
 
Lady Bernardine was not given to histrionics. But the news that one of her fellow nobility had been foully done away with saw her standing white faced at the entrance of her tent with her fulsome power of speech momentarily paralysed.

Lord Archibald dead? How can this be? All around her porters were running, snatching up what they could before fleeing the site and wailing about curses and avenging spirits.

Above all the commotion one voice could be heard intoning ancient prayers. She hastily crossed herself and strode across to the dining marquee where a most ingenius hot tea stand had appeared. She knew without a doubt that this was where her countrymen would be congregating at a time like this.
 
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on :
 
"Arse" shouted Tavish, at himself

Barely a week into what he had thought was going to be well rewarded babysitting, and he'd already let his guard down enough that Archie was deid.

Perhaps his old man would be happy if Tavish looked after the bairn now instead.

In fact, from murmurs he had heard around the camp, perhaps the wee whisker was worth keeping an eye on, for Tavish's own safety
 
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
 
the following is available at a very modest price:

Eli Abrahams’ Guidance Notes for Surviving Attacks by Murderous Cultists

(50 piastre: 5millieme refund available on certification of premature death*)

1. Careless talk saves lives.
We’ll never spot the Cultists if everyone is afraid to talk. We want dialogue, debate, analysis, reasons, and as much of it as possible. Never discourage verbosity. Never suggest that someone is talking too much. We want the Cultists to have to talk and analyse and argue. If they can blend in with silence, they will. We must make silence suspicious and unusual.
2. Don’t take it personally.
The very worst thing an innocent person can do is to counter-accuse someone who suspects them without good reasons. All that tells us is that you find it annoying to be at risk of being unjustly lynched. Trust me, we’d already worked that out. Don’t be afraid to accuse your accuse if you have good reason, but make sure you set out a clear case. People will be falsely accused. Mistakes are inevitable. Don’t take it personally.
3. Be alert. (Camp Sarastro, as your English humour charmingly puts it, has a requirement for lerts)
We’ll spot the Cultists best when their interests diverge from ours. When they do something irrational, foolish and inexplicable on any hypothesis but guilt, we’ll have them. Of course, this presupposes that it isn’t just a simple innocent being thoughtless. So don’t be thoughtless. Consider your actions carefully, Otherwise, you’ll get lynched for making a silly mistake, and it’ll be your own fault, but that won’t make the rest of us feel a great deal better.
4. Make investigation pay.
If you’re an investigative type, you’ll probably feel tempted to check out the most vocal and controversial of the camp denizens. Don’t. Controversies tend to resolve themselves over time. Loud-mouthed criminals give themselves away. Instead, check out the people you have no idea about at all. The aim is to maximise what you know. Going from ‘no idea’ to ‘full facts’ tells you more than going from suspicion to certainty.

And don’t forget that clearing the innocent is as valuable as convicting the guilty. You won’t want to stick your neck out to say that someone is guiltless, of course, but make sure you record your results in some way, and in a way that (when you are dead and we are looking back on all that you’ve said to find clues) we will be able to tell, with hindsight, what was certain knowledge and what was your personal opinion.
5. A free win to one lucky participant.
If you are lucky enough to be on the verge of Cult membership (I’m talking to you, Mr Defector), then tell us now. Seriously. The Cultists won’t kill you – because you are a potential asset and anyway they’d rather try for a doctor or detective. And we won’t either, because until you actually switch, you’re one of us. And then you, lucky turncoat that you are, get to sit back, watch the contest, and join the winning side at the end. Before long, you’ll have all the evidence needed to swing the endgame in our favour (if you stay loyal), or you jump ship. No one will touch you because you might get to be kingmaker.

All you need to know to survive. Detailed tactical consultations available on request.

Eli Abrahams

*Claims will be met only if presented in person
 
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
 
The following is available at a very modest price:

Eli Abrahams’ Guidance Notes for Surviving Attacks by Murderous Cultists

New Edition! This one not type-set by hitting a typewriter with a camel's arse!

(55 piastre: 5millieme refund available on certification of premature death*)

1. Careless talk saves lives.

We’ll never spot the Cultists if everyone is afraid to talk. We want dialogue, debate, analysis, reasons, and as much of it as possible. Never discourage verbosity. Never suggest that someone is talking too much. We want the Cultists to have to talk and analyse and argue. If they can blend in with silence, they will. We must make silence suspicious and unusual.


2. Don’t take it personally.

The very worst thing an innocent person can do is to counter-accuse someone who suspects them without good reasons. All that tells us is that you find it annoying to be at risk of being unjustly lynched. Trust me, we’d already worked that out. Don’t be afraid to accuse your accuse if you have good reason, but make sure you set out a clear case. People will be falsely accused. Mistakes are inevitable. Don’t take it personally.


3. Be alert. (Camp Sarastro, as your English humour charmingly puts it, has a requirement for lerts)

We’ll spot the Cultists best when their interests diverge from ours. When they do something irrational, foolish and inexplicable on any hypothesis but guilt, we’ll have them. Of course, this presupposes that it isn’t just a simple innocent being thoughtless. So don’t be thoughtless. Consider your actions carefully, Otherwise, you’ll get lynched for making a silly mistake, and it’ll be your own fault, but that won’t make the rest of us feel a great deal better.


4. Make investigation pay.

If you’re an investigative type, you’ll probably feel tempted to check out the most vocal and controversial of the camp denizens. Don’t. Controversies tend to resolve themselves over time. Loud-mouthed criminals give themselves away. Instead, check out the people you have no idea about at all. The aim is to maximise what you know. Going from ‘no idea’ to ‘full facts’ tells you more than going from suspicion to certainty.

And don’t forget that clearing the innocent is as valuable as convicting the guilty. You won’t want to stick your neck out to say that someone is guiltless, of course, but make sure you record your results in some way, and in a way that (when you are dead and we are looking back on all that you’ve said to find clues) we will be able to tell, with hindsight, what was certain knowledge and what was your personal opinion.


5. A free win to one lucky participant.

If you are lucky enough to be on the verge of Cult membership (I’m talking to you, Mr Defector), then tell us now. Seriously. The Cultists won’t kill you – because you are a potential asset and anyway they’d rather try for a doctor or detective. And we won’t either, because until you actually switch, you’re one of us. And then you, lucky turncoat that you are, get to sit back, watch the contest, and join the winning side at the end. Before long, you’ll have all the evidence needed to swing the endgame in our favour (if you stay loyal), or you jump ship. No one will touch you because you might get to be kingmaker.


All you need to know to survive. Detailed tactical consultations available on request.

Eli Abrahams

*Claims will be met only if presented in person
 
Posted by AristonAstuanax (# 10894) on :
 
Lt. Madoc had a look at a copy of the "guide" one of his men had purchased. Whoever this Abrahams character was, he certainly had both good business sense and a sense of humor; whether circulating his advice was a good idea, though, was another matter. There's always a risk in circulating "how to" guides too widely, as your enemy may use it to his own advantage; then again, Mr. Abrahams didn't seem to be concerned about who lived or died, so much as who paid up front.

Owain wondered if he might convince him to have a word with the captain. Things might be run so much more efficiently with Eli in charge . . .

The lieutenant set down the pamphlet and tried to get some rest amongst all the commotion. Ever since Lord Whiskers had been murdered, the guard detail posted at the camp had been increased; even junior officers were not exempt from nighttime watch duty. Plus, dead bodies are dead bodies. Owain had seen enough to be more interested in preventing new ones than gawking at the old.

[ 17. October 2010, 22:02: Message edited by: AristonAstuanax ]
 
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
 
Rose Autenrieth had slept late, not being awakened by Lord Whiskers' usual bellowing for hot water and his shaving kit. When she finally awoke and finished getting washed and dressed, the sun was high over the yardarm. (The English members of the expedition had whimsically mounted one near where the desert ships were tethered.). Eschewing drink, she went in search of a good hot cuppa. As she made her way to the teastand that had materialized in the center of the camp, she noticed that everyone was in commotion and muttering "Murder!"
 
Posted by Smudgie (# 2716) on :
 
The little teastand was already proving worth its weight in.. er. sand. People seemed to be flocking around, talking ceaselessly or else maintaining a stunned silence. Still, taciturn or verbose, as long as they were drinking tea they were welcome at Miss Smudgeson's tearoo..er...teatent.
A new customer approached and Miss Smudgeson greeted her with a smile, as yet unable to answer the lady's query about the matter that seemed to be causing such consternation in the camp. But the other customers were not reticent in answering her question and it soon became evident that sand was not the only thing to worry about in this godforsaken place.
Time for a cup of tea.
 
Posted by Herrick (# 15226) on :
 
Professor Craig Champion read the letter and immediately telephoned for flights to Egypt. His interest had been piqued and his nasal passages had been picked. This was more than interesting; it was intriguing.

He could smell that something here was not as it seemed.
 
Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
 
Andrew greeted Professor Craig Champion at the airport. He was a colleague of his father, and a good friend of the family.

"My condolences. Lord Whisker will be greatly missed. Such a tragedy".

"Thank you, Professor. It has been very difficult. My father wanted you to know all about the excavations. I have arranged a private tour. I have to warn you though, I fear we are all in grave danger. There are dark powers in action. And the Old Gods can't do much to help yet."


Professor Craig Champion nodded meaningfully.

[ 18. October 2010, 11:37: Message edited by: El Greco ]
 
Posted by Hart (# 4991) on :
 
Haji didn't feel at all guilty that his meditation had consisted mainly of doing math -- after all, his people did invent it! He had to make some random guesses, but here was a first analysis.

The guesses relate to how many of each role we have. He guessed 1 vigilante, 3 cultist and 3 masons.

1) If we don't lynch anyone, the vigilante has a shot tonight. They know they're innocent, but have no further information. This gives them a 3/13 chance of killing a cultist.

2) Suppose we lynch someone. The only people with any information to work with are the cultists and the masons. The cultists can be sure of putting up an innocent for lynching, the masons can pick at random and get a 3/11 chance of nominating a cultist (which is better than anyone else at this stage). If the mob votes randomly (and, with no further information, there's not a lot else to do), then we have a 3/22 chance of killing a cultist by nominating.

Haji decided, as much as it went against his instincts, to spread this advice by rumor instead of preaching it from the rooftops: it was somewhat provisional, being so heavily based on guess work.
 
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on :
 
"Good Lord!" exclaimed Lady B to Rose and Hyacinth. "There are Professors popping up everywhere! Tavish is already casting suspicions; alliances seem to be being formed - and poor dear Archie not even in his coffin yet. However I am quite sure the dig must go on. It is what Lord Whisker would have wanted."

She knew that she should not withdraw her financial backing; but was disturbed about the sort of person who might push themselves forward to take charge of the venture in this time of fraught feeling.

"What I really need," she said half to herself, "is a damned good lawyer."
 
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
 
Haji,

3 cultists may not be a bad guess. Likewise, 3 masons sounds right (one, and it's not much of a lodge, two, and the advantage is minimal, and four would be excessive). But why a vigilante and not a doctor or detective?


Lady Bernardine,

My brother-in-law is a fine lawyer. I will gladly arrange an introduction for a small consideration.

(Five Eygptian pounds, or equivalent in dollars, francs or sterling, would be customary. I mention this as I am sure a Lady of undoubtedly generous nature such as yourself would not wish to give offence by offering too much.)
 
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
3 cultists may not be a bad guess. Likewise, 3 masons sounds right (one, and it's not much of a lodge, two, and the advantage is minimal, and four would be excessive). But why a vigilante and not a doctor or detective?

I'd guess that just at the moment the doctor and the detective are in the same boat as the rest of us. They can't do anything on this turn to get rid of the cultists except nominate someone at random. The vigilante has no more knowledge than anyone else but they can kill someone at random. (3/12 of getting a cultist - the vigilante is not going to kill themselves.)

Dai noticed people gathering around the tea urn. Tea? Tea wouldn't wipe out the memory of eldritch events, incomprehensible to sanity, whose very occurrence undermined man's faith in a rational universe, fuliginous events that hinted at a world of which man was Not Meant to Know!! Shuddering at the recollection of England beating Wales at rugby, Dai went off to find something stronger.
 
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
I'd guess that just at the moment the doctor and the detective are in the same boat as the rest of us. They can't do anything on this turn to get rid of the cultists except nominate someone at random. The vigilante has no more knowledge than anyone else but they can kill someone at random.

The point was, why assume there is a vigilante (rather than a doctor or detective) in the camp at all?

I suppose Haji might be working on the basis that there's at least one of each, (and didn't mention the irrelevant roles) but we have no guarantee that this is the case. Personally I think it unlikely that lmost everyone here is a special something, and in fact those other roles aren't irrelevant. We have to factor in the chance of killing a valuable detective, or losing our vigilante and our veteren, as well.

Point taken that IF we have a vigilante, voting for no lynching has a higher chance of getting a cultist than voting between (at best) a Masonic and a cultist nomination. It also tells us less from argument and voting, and we stand a better chance of losing a useful innocent (a falsely accused doctor can protest his innocence, one whose throat is cut in his sleep cannot). But we don't even know if we have a vigilante (and that is not a role that should be made public), and if we do, he or she may be a fool.
 
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
 
Rose sighed. Far too much hubbub for her to carry out the planned leisurely review of her well-thumbed Champollion. She thumbed through the broadsheet that had appeared -- several copies lay on the teatent's tables. One was marked "second edition" but she could not find any difference between that and the unmarked, presumably first, edition.

The thing is (she mused aloud), the Guardians of Senkhet have a 100% chance of killing someone every night. No, wait, only a nearly 100% chance, because perhaps the doctor might save their victim, or perhaps they might strike at a veteran and lose one of their own number at the same time. Still, how long should the innocent wait before flinging accusations? Perhaps the best strategy is to ploy their measly 3/22 chances as early as possible by nominating and lynching someone. Or if not, how good should the chances get before the innocent risk lynching someone?

We may not be allowed to go to bed until we've nominated and voted. If so, then if we innocents want the option of lynching no-one, then we should nominate at least 3 people to preserve the possibility of a hung vote.
 
Posted by AristonAstuanax (# 10894) on :
 
Personally, I believe we should start taking nominations for lynchings. Now, we do have the option of saying that none of those nominated ought to be lynched, which may be what we all decide on, but, without voting and discussion, our friendly band of cultists won't get a chance to slip up and reveal themselves.

Therefore, I'm proposing this: we nominate a few more-or-less random camp members for lynching (not because we bear you any ill will, mind you), then, after discussion—and assuming that a Guardian doesn't blow his or her cover—we vote against lynching anyone. This will allow our vigilante, if we have one, to act; as has been said, he or she has a greater chance of eliminating a Guardian than we as a group do. However, if we decide not to lynch and nothing happens, then we have conclusive knowledge that it really is up to us to investigate and prosecute these criminals as a group.

And, as a final note: I hereby offer the services of me and my men as a firing squad for when we do finally capture one of these accursed cultists.
 
Posted by AristonAstuanax (# 10894) on :
 
And, if I may take my own advice . . .

Rose Autenrieth, why should you not be the first camp member with her back against the wall?
 
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
 
Is that a question or a nomination?
 
Posted by Hart (# 4991) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:

I suppose Haji might be working on the basis that there's at least one of each, (and didn't mention the irrelevant roles) but we have no guarantee that this is the case.

That was indeed my assumption, which I tried to flag as dubious so as people might take it with the pinch of salt it deserves. I also see the advantage of discussing in order to gather information.
 
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
Point taken that IF we have a vigilante, voting for no lynching has a higher chance of getting a cultist than voting between a Masonic and a cultist nomination. It also tells us less from argument and voting, and we stand a better chance of losing a useful innocent.

I hadn't actually taken in the implications of Haji's probabilities... I think that's because they're counterintuitive, and because I agree with you that the benefits of argument and discussion shift the balance of probabilities.
 
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
Point taken that IF we have a vigilante, voting for no lynching has a higher chance of getting a cultist than voting between (at best) a Masonic and a cultist nomination. It also tells us less from argument and voting, and we stand a better chance of losing a useful innocent (a falsely accused doctor can protest his innocence, one whose throat is cut in his sleep cannot). But we don't even know if we have a vigilante (and that is not a role that should be made public), and if we do, he or she may be a fool.

I don't understand. Are you proposing we try to lynch someone, or that we try to avoid lynching someone? The vigilante will get their chance tonight (if they exist) whether or not we lynch someone during the day. (Odds are that we will miss lynching the vigilante by accident during the day.)

AIUI, once nominations have been made, we can't vote for "no lynching", but if we have 3 or more nomincations then, as a group, we can split our groups and avoid giving anyone the 51% necessary to lynch.
 
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
AIUI, once nominations have been made, we can't vote for "no lynching", but if we have 3 or more nomincations then, as a group, we can split our groups and avoid giving anyone the 51% necessary to lynch.

"split our votes", not "split our groups".
 
Posted by Hart (# 4991) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by la vie en rouge:


The vigilante may kill one person overnight on the days on which no one is lynched (and those days only).

I don't think there's been a definitive ruling (though Haji wasn't quite sure why he was regarding that strange ethereal voice that emanated from the sky every now and then as definitive) on whether we can vote for "no lynching" or not.
 
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
 
Oh, I missed that about the Vigilante only being able to act if no-one has been lynched (Rose murmured to Haji).

Sheesh, reading these inscribed Life Is Red Rules was giving her a headache.

quote:
Any player who gets 51% or more (i.e. absolute majority) of the vote is lynched. Voting is compulsory for all players .
Rose knelt in prayer. "Please, dear oracle, let us know if when we vote as required, we must vote for a nominated name, or can vote No Lynching instead."
 
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
Time for a rules clarification, methinks [Biased]

When we get to that, there will be a “no lynching” option that you can vote for. What you can’t do is not vote at all.

Hope that helps.

AIUI, there is one nomination so far, for Rose Autenrieth by Lt Madoc. Any more? You have about 24 hours left to get any extra nominations in.
 
Posted by AristonAstuanax (# 10894) on :
 
Yes Rose, you have been nominated, in case you were wondering.
 
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
 
Thank you for the clarification. It's rather lonely here by the wall. I nominate Professor Montgomery Llewellyn Stewart McBride (Imaginary Friend). If for some reason we're not agreed about not lynching someone, I want there to be someone else to split the vote with. By having more than one nominee, we may get more information. He hasn't said anything since Lord Whiskers was found murdered.

It goes without saying that I'm innocent. I think I was nominated just because I was the most recent person to post when AA came along with his entirely reasonable proposal to nominate someone.

I think our best course of action is to arrange a No Lynching for at least the first day, because of the odds described above involving the perhaps Vigilante.
 
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on :
 
Tavish checked his moustache for remnants of tea. Boy, that woman knew how to make a good cuppa. And talking of women, where did all these fine specimens pop up from ?
He agreed with the one who said that Professors were popping up everywhere, and not just the ones with fancy titles. Everyone seemed to be spouting a theory of how we cope, panicked that now the Big Whisker had gone -
(and just how many people offered to help Tavish deal with the man's body to have it sent home ? Exactly) -
as if this meant we were all going to be dropping like flies.
Sure enough, justice had to be done, but no need to go round getting rid of your fellow man (or woman) willy-nilly.
He would let the rest talk all they want, and see what happened. He wasn't a school books clever man like them, but he did know the value of watching for those who talked too much, and those who said too little.
He went to get another cuppa, wondering if his accent would still sway the foreign* lassies like it used to


*i.e. not Scottish

[ 19. October 2010, 08:45: Message edited by: Wet Kipper ]
 
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
I think our best course of action is to arrange a No Lynching for at least the first day, because of the odds described above involving the perhaps Vigilante.

I don't.

We don't know if we have a vigilante at all. We don't know (and don't want to know) who it is, and therefore can't judge his or her competence. We learn nothing from vigilante killings - we don't see who supported the death and why. We increase the risk of killing useful innocents.

I'd rather not rely on that to beat the cultists. The vigilante (if there is one) may be useful if we genuinely can't agree, or the cultists manage to dead-lock every vote, but we should not abdicate responsibility for solving the case to an unknown agent. The cultists are much more likely than not to kill the vigilante before he (or she) gets them all, and the possible presence of a veteren makes matters worse.

I say, we should all vote according to our best judgement of who is guilty, and give a full account of our reasons. We might not get a majority. That will still tell us something. If we deliberately aim at a null result, that says only that we weren't willing to make a decision, and gives the cultists a great crowd of the non-committed to hide in. We want non-commital to be conspicuous and suspicious, because we need the cultists to declare their convictions if we are to spot them.
 
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Hart:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:

I suppose Haji might be working on the basis that there's at least one of each, (and didn't mention the irrelevant roles) but we have no guarantee that this is the case.

That was indeed my assumption, which I tried to flag as dubious so as people might take it with the pinch of salt it deserves.
If that does turn out to be the case, then I should point out that IF the detective can clear three innocent people (and if one of these is the defector, he stays loyal), and we avoid lynching any known innocent, then we can win.

I'll say that now in case I get murdered before it applies. If there are three masons now, and in three days time the detective has cleared enough people to bring the total of innocents to four plus him/herself, then the ‘knowns' outnumber the ‘unknowns' five to three. There's complications if the detective clears Masons, or if a lynching fails or an assassination is thwarted, of course, but in principle, IF it's right that we have all available specials, three days' time is about the point that we should be looking at role-claims. At that point, the doctor (if there is one) should guard the detective*. I would suggest that a Mason (if there is one) makes the first appeal at that stage if the strategy looks viable (ie. the detective is not dead), since we give away less if we sacrifice a Mason and there turns out to be no detective, than if the detective claims and there turn out to be no Masons. If there are no Masons, it's not viable - and no one claims.

The defector, as I've said, can (and should) declare themself now, and if the Camp look like winning, can stay loyal and help us. Since the cultists can beat my plan only by taking out the detective before we clear enough innocents to win, they can't afford to kill a known defector. The defector can afford to switch at the last minute if the plan fails, but I'm guessing they will prefer to stick with certain victory.

Because life is rarely so kind, I doubt that we do have at least one of each role. But if we do, then if we're smart, we're going to win.


*In the interim, of course, the doctor should be guarding me.
 
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on :
 
(tangent)
every time I play this game, I'm reminded why i said I wouldn;t play again.

My brain hurts [Help]

why is this game so complicated ? why can't we go back to old fashioned goodies versus baddies, with either 1 doctor or 1 detective?
(end tangent)

[ 19. October 2010, 13:59: Message edited by: Wet Kipper ]
 
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
 
There appears to be a need for this:

Eli Abrahams' Executive Guidance Notes for Surviving Attacks by Murderous Cultists


(50 piastre, all profits go to the Distressed Jewish Fixers' Retirement Fund)


If you are a:

citizen - blather away as much as you want about everything you think of. Do not declare your role EVER. Nominate, and vote to lynch, people who are (i) quiet; (ii) guilty; or (iii) Eli Abrahams has nominated.

doctor - Do not declare your role unless (a) accused and likely to be lynched; or (b) contradicting a false claimant. Act normal. Protect the detective. If the detective has not declared himself, protect Eli Abrahams.

detective - investigate someone every night. Accuse the guilty. Express your thoughts tentatively and your findings with certitude. Don't draw attention to yourself, but don't hide away either. Act normal. Do not declare your role unless (a) accused and likely to be lynched; (b) contradicting a false claimant; or (c) doing so wins.

mason - do not declare your role unless (a) accused; (b) contradicting a false claimant; or (c) at least day 3. Act normal.

defector - declare your role immediately. Investigate every night. Relax. Pick a side that is going to win.

vigilante - do not declare your role unless (a) accused; or (b) contradicting a false claimant. If you kill anyone, don't make mistakes. Act normal.

veteran - do not declare your role unless (a) accused; or (b) contradicting a false claimant. Act normalier than normal.

miller - pray. In fact, you might as well tell us who you are and save us a wasted investigation.

Guardian of Senkhet - give up now. Or, better still, try bribery. Bribery is good. Hard currency only please. In advance.


Read the part that pertains to you, and do it. You will have a better than even chance of making out of the camp alive.
 
Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Wet Kipper:
why can't we go back to old fashioned goodies versus baddies, with either 1 doctor or 1 detective?
(end tangent)

because that would be boring [Devil]
 
Posted by Hart (# 4991) on :
 
A lot of information had been put out which Haji needed guidance on from above. He decided to enter into a 30 hour period of fasting and prayer to discern his action when the time to vote came. It was a mystery of the faith that he thought he'd be able to get his 30 hours in before night fell.

[OOC: On the road for a while, see you all soon... hopefully in time to vote. /OOC]
 
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
Nominations closed

We shall now move to a vote.

You may vote for

As previously explained, any player who gets an absolute majority of the vote will be lynched.
 
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
Oh forgot to say it would make it easier for me if you can please cast your vote in bold type.

Cheers.
 
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on :
 
The Professor had been inexplicably busy and hadn't noticed the crowd baying his name. Bizarre, that. But now that the time for a defense had passed, he decided that he would make his intentions plain by casting the first vote for no lynching. He was innocent, but equally did not want to make any retaliatory move on someone against whom he had no evidence. He thought it best to let the specialists do their thing for a night and then to see if the picture was any clearer in the morning.
 
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on :
 
Good Lord, even though I said there were professors popping up everywhere, that doesn't mean to say that I want to bump one of them off. And to lynch, I mean actually lynch a young woman for no good reason other than her dreadful taste in hats is beyond belief. She is no doubt looking at that yard-arm over where the camels are pegged in a different way now.

Lady Bernardine votes for no lynching.
 
Posted by CuppaT (# 10523) on :
 
Papagena wandered from tent to tent. Some people were more friendly to visitors than others. On the night of the murder, she was away visiting a sphinx. Seeing the commotion the next morning she strolled over, but as no one was there who would feed her even a scrap, and since the air was full of angst, she crept back into the desert. Peace was a prime commodity in her life, but still, she wondered who would be the person around this camp who would disturb the peace of the sands of time in such a way. She hoped there would be no lynching.
 
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
 
Tempting though it is, if we follow that pattern every single cultist has an easy fit with the rest of the crowd. It will be a wasted day and we learn nothing.

On the principle of voting (at least at first) for the least active nominee:

Professor McBride.


(Also - do we not get a defence phase on this rules-set?)
 
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
 
I vote to lynch Professor McBride.

[ETA: the defense phase runs concurrently with the nominations.]

[ 20. October 2010, 01:15: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
 
Posted by AristonAstuanax (# 10894) on :
 
Lieutenant Madoc noticed the small black cat squeeze under his tent wall. He extended his hand, letting her rub against it, before scratching her behind her ears, then stroking her idly. Of course, when the moggie figured out that all she was getting was petted, not fed, she quickly leapt from his lap, lifted her tail straight into the air and pointedly walked away, the tip flicking as she stepped.

Silly kitty.

Even though he'd nominated her, Owain thought it not particularly likely that Rose was actually a cultist—well, no more likely than anyone else, that is. She was quite right in supposing that her nomination rested mostly in being in the right place at the right time; if Eli was right in supposing that the Guardians would like nothing more than to remain unnoticed, then Rose was certainly not one of them. She'd certainly attracted the young lieutenant's notice, that much was certain!

No, it seemed as if Professor McBride, rival of the late Lord Whiskers, might have benefited from a more vocal defense than silence. Owain knew that his men were crack shots; it wouldn't be hard to assemble a few of them for a squad if need be . . .

[ 20. October 2010, 03:28: Message edited by: AristonAstuanax ]
 
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
 
Dai agrees with Eli Abrahams that a lynching is better than no lynching.
Both nominations are shots in the dark. I think I'm going to go with the one that has the greater weight of support at this moment.
Professor McBride
 
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
Arsène Beauregard is currently confined to his tent (sunstroke, no doubt) and has asked the oracle to proxy for him.

He votes for no lynching.
 
Posted by Herrick (# 15226) on :
 
Professor McBride does seem like a viable target at this time, thinks Professor Champion. Hope it turns out worthwhile (sorry McBride).
 
Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
 
Rose Autenrieth seems pretty suspicious insisting we need to split votes and not lynch anyone just yet. When are we going to lynch people, when we are all dead? I also don't approve of her picking up "randomly" (was it that random?) Professor McBride and nominating the old chap for lynching.

If Rose turns out to be a criminal mastermind, then we'll know that McBride was innocent. Of course, if McBride gets lynched and he is found to be sinister, then Rose will be innocent. At any case, I choose to give McBride's silence the benefit of doubt at this time in the game, errrr, I meant life.
 
Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
 
Seth heard chatter on the wind about lynching. He didn't like it. There was a good chance that the wrong person might get it. On the other hand, the winds did tell him that the wagons were circling around Professor McBride . Maybe the game of risk would pay off for once.He asked his chief camel, who appeared to grunt in agreement. Decision made, he sat down with his back to the wind and pulled the linen down over his face as he waited for the approaching sand storm.
 
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on :
 
Tavish's head still hurt. That tea was strong, and the infernal heat wasn't helping.
He pondered whether
- the kind thing to do was vote for no lynching, and see what happened,
- or whether the best thing for these Guardian chappies to be doing was to try and get a majority "no lynching" in order to keep safe one of their "ain folk".
- Or would they instead wait for someone they knew was innocent to get nominated, and then jump on them with suspicions of silence, and convince everyone that we hve to do something:trade; ?
Should we try and avoid the "double whammy" of an innocent being lynched, followed by a further murder in the night ?
When there are 3 options, how can you let the toss of a coin decide ?
He went for a lie down in a cool place to think this over further
 
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Eli Abrahams:
3. Be alert. (Camp Sarastro, as your English humour charmingly puts it, has a requirement for lerts)

You don't have three options, Mr McCallum. You have two.

Rose is safe. Even if everyone still to vote thinks her guilty, they can't form a majority. Voting for her at this point is functionally identical to wanting 'no lynching'.
 
Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
 
Can't someone change his vote before everybody has voted? If so, then all options are on the table. Or am I engaging in wishful thinking now, cause I didn't want to see Rose off the hook this easily? I'd appreciate it if a kind ethereal voice would explain if it's possible to change votes before everybody has voted.

[ 20. October 2010, 17:10: Message edited by: El Greco ]
 
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on :
 
Lady Bernadine had retired to her tent during the heat of the long afternoon. It was stiflingly hot and there was a feeling of evil oppression pervading the camp. She picked up her exquisitely bound travel bible (Madeleine's parting gift to her), and, opening it at the chapter of John, her eyes fell upon these words:

'Pilate had a notice prepared and fastened to the cross. It read: JESUS OF NAZARETH, THE KING OF THE JEWS. Many of the Jews read this sign, for the place where Jesus was crucified was near the city, and the sign was written in Aramaic, Latin and Greek. The chief priests of the Jews protested to Pilate, "Do not write 'The King of the Jews,' but that this man claimed to be the King of the Jews." Pilate answered, "What I have written, I have written."

She sighed, and pondered the power of the written word.
 
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
Sorry El Greco, votes, like nominations cannot be withdrawn once made.

(If I once start allowing it there'll be bedlam afterwards)
 
Posted by Hart (# 4991) on :
 
What did my people bother inventing the abacus for if no-one's going to use it? [Yes, yes, some heathen scholars claim the Chinese invented it, but we all know the real story...]

Currently, No Lynching has 4 votes; Rose A, 1; McBride, 6. With three people left to vote, McBride needs two of these to hang. Two votes either for no lynching or Rose means no lynching will occur, so my vote decides nothing... in the interests of testing to see whether or not there's a vigilante: no lynching.
 
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on :
 
The death of Archie still weighing heavily on his mind, Tavish voted for No lynching
and if there were to be one, he wasn;t going to watch.
 
Posted by Smudgie (# 2716) on :
 
Miss Smudgeson was astounded. This was indeed a strange lawless land where people could be accused of heinous crimes and punished without recourse to fair trial. She was shocked, frightened, but also surprised to find a frisson of excitement at the thought of being so far from civilisation. Not that one was ever that far from civilisation where there was a nice cup of tea to be found.

She considered the options. The nice young lady who had begun to frequent the teatent and whose conversation was so congenial or the irritable archaeologist with the ridiculously pretentious long name?

No, relieved that she was not in any position which entailed her vote making a difference, Miss Smudgeson was able to go with her natural inclination and vote for no lynching.
 
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
The final votes are in.


No one is lynched today.

And with that, night falls.
Those of you who have a night action, please PM me now.
 
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on :
 
At last the heat of the day was ebbing. Lady Bernardine took out her writing case and commenced the daily ritual of adding to the letter to her cousin, which would be sent whenever the opportune moment presented itself.

"Dear Madeleine,
I cannot begin to describe to you the awful day we've just had. I was up early to look at the carvings on the wall inside the entrance to the tomb of Senkhet III - for they are quite extraordinary. Imagine, if you will, a life-sized procession of art depicting the pharoah in his chariot and surrounded by the vanguard of his army. There were rows and rows of tall Nubian archers stretching back into the as yet unexcavated part of the mausoleum. Who knows what we may find in the rest of the procession as we go along. It is so very exciting.

I thought it very strange that Archie wasn't there, because he is always up and at work with the first light. He could not bear to waste one minute. Then, quelle horrere his assistant comes racing towards me screaming that the Lord Eenglish has been murdered most foully.

Of course I could not believe it. But alas, it was the truth. He has been taken from us; slain by a Nubian arrow! The camp is in complete upheaval now, and I do not know what may happen. Why only this afternoon some of those left took a set against Archie's old rival Professor McBride and tried to do away with him. Feelings are running very high, and we will all sleep uneasily if at all tonight. Pray for us, my dear.
I remain yours sincerely,
L__y B.Haighton-Chats_____y.
 
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
 
Eli finishes the last meticulous entry in his ledger, deducting the cost of paper and ink and allowing himself a small grin at the few piastre profit from his Guidance Notes, and then casts his eyes around the camp in twilight. McCallum is getting one of the few remaining servants to pack up Lord Whisker's mortal remains, and Eli nods approvingly at the man's piety in arranging this last service for a family friend.

He considers whether he should contact a local undertaker and offer to help transport the body, but decides against it for the time being. In a few days time, it is more than likely that he will be in a position to offer them business in bulk, and to
begin any negotiation for commission by introducing a perfectly good business contact to His Lordship's mad heathen son would be lunacy.

Eli checks the preparations he has inside his own tent. Cotton threads run along the inside, attached to alarm bells, and at the entrance, a rusty but still functional bear-trap is set, half-buried in the sand and concealed by a thin rug. Eli carefully moves a small table to partially block the way in, so that any intruder would step onto the rug, and...

He stops. And intruder would step past the table, onto the rug, have his shin bone painfully shattered between iron teeth, contract some hideous disease or desert-parasite, and ... sue. No good. A warning is required.

Eli carefully steps over the trap, and, taking up a paint-brush, writes solemn warning in English, Hebrew, French, Arabic and Coptic. He pauses again. Perhaps the killer, is, after all, not a visitor or
modern Egyptian at all. Perhaps the only language they read is that written on the walls of the tomb itself.

But Eli neither understands hierogylphics himself, nor is willing to line the palm of some grasping gentile professor to learn a suitable warning. He stands indecisively for a moment.
"How hard can it really be?" he asks himself. "Isn't it basically just picture writing?". The brush dips, and forms few stylised lines representing a priapic man and a receptive woman in close embrace. Next, the central tower of a fortification. Last, three wooden uprights with two horizontal top pieces in the process of being cast down by a sphere.

Satisfied that the meaning will be plain to all, Eli steps back over the rug and retires for the night.

 
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on :
 
Montgomery McBride sat at on a fold-away chair at the put-up table in his tent, fretting. As glad as he was that he had escaped the clutches of the murderous mob (thank goodness for sanity!) he was anxious to go to the tomb and explore for himself. But was it safe? The Guardians of Senkhet were sure to be watching and presumably wouldn't be best pleased to have anyone snooping around.

But the prize that was on offer to the person who could view the tombs first! All that work, all that prestige! They would be the toast of the academic community for years to come. Job offers would be numerous, invitations to travel plentiful, and the financial rewards substantial. But these superstitious fools were about to ruin everything! How dare they stand in the way of the advancement of knowledge? How could they not understand?

He stood and walked to the other end of the tent to pour himself a brandy. He must wait. At least until daylight. No matter how hard it was, it was simply foolishness to venture into the tomb at this hour and in these circumstances. But it was so hard. So hard!

Half-a-bottle of brandy later, the professor drifted, ill-contentedly, into a stupor...
 
Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
 
Andrew had just finished praying the preyers to the Gods of the Underworld and began wondering why nobody has offered him a bottle of brandy to get them inside the excavations site. It felt so lonely in there since Lord Whisker was murdered. The old man might have had no idea about the power of the Gods, but he loved all things ancient and his company was much appreciated inside those dimly lit corridors and around those tranquil royal tombs.
 
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
 
Dai Mortal knew that some people did not have entire confidence in his sanity. He knew some people thought that, ever since that fateful excursion in the upper reaches of the Nile, he was a little cracked. But still, Dai knew better than to believe that a cat had voted. He was sane and sober enough to know that didn't happen.

He certainly wasn't going to get caught talking to the cat.

Night was falling. In an effort to put off the nightmares, Dai crept out to the ends of the columns that had been unearthed outside the tomb. It was as he feared. Just as in the cyclopean city of Esnesnon and in the squamous and deserted ruins of Hs'ibbur, the ratio of the circumference of the columns to their diameter was No Rational Number.

[ 22. October 2010, 19:02: Message edited by: Dafyd ]
 
Posted by AristonAstuanax (# 10894) on :
 
As the sun sank beneath the horizon, Owain picked up his rifle and walked to the lonely western outskirts of the camp.
"At ease, seargent. Go and get yourself some rest."
The lieutenant found himself a small rock to sit on during the long watch, and took out the flask of extremely strong native tea he'd brought with him. In the last moments of light, he saw a shape moving towards him out of the shadows. He lifted his gun to his shoulder; a soft "click," and he took careful aim.
"Mrow?"
He lowered his weapon, and reached into his pack, whistling. The cat came over to him; this time, however, Owain was prepared. A little morsel from his own allotment was worth a bit of company...
 
Posted by CuppaT (# 10523) on :
 
The shadow moved closer to the lieutenant sitting on a rock and accepted the food with dignity. Descended from the Egyptian gods, revered by Pharaohs themselves, a pure black cat knew her place in the world indeed. Communication had never been a problem for any cat but the silliest of kittens. Simply by staring and concentrating the mind, a cat could make even the dullest of humans to understand.

Night was a cat's best time for thinking. Papagena was also glad for the company. It seemed safer somehow than wandering around alone. She had meandered around Camp Sarastro just getting out this far. She stared hard at Madoc: Did you see the writings and pictures on the one tent? What did you make of that? What do you think that one is trying to hide by all his warnings and writings? Most of the humans are keeping to themselves, writing or praying. You'd think they would eat together at least, or dig like most of the expeditioners, or something.
 
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
 
Dai woke up and sat upright with a gasp, something he had only seen people do in movies. When would the night end? This waiting around wondering whether someone was going to be killed was jarring to a chap's nerves. Oh for the morning.
 
Posted by Herrick (# 15226) on :
 
Craig Champion, meanwhile, sat upon a rock and admired Venus and the stars of early evening thinking on all that had passed recently.
 
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on :
 
tangent:

given that the rules originally posted by la vie en rouge stated:

quote:
After that, night falls, those of you who have night actions tell me what they are, and the rest of you get a good night’s sleep. No posting to the thread during the night phase please.
I'm a bit suspicious of all those who have told us they've been moving around "tonight"

[ 25. October 2010, 08:51: Message edited by: Wet Kipper ]
 
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
Morning breaks

Professor Champion has been murdered in retribution for his disturbance of the king's tomb. He was Hercule Poirot (detective).

Herrick tells me this is actually quite convenient for him, because real life has suddenly got extremely busy. Consequently he doesn't have time to write a death scene either, which I guess gives the rest of you free reign to decide how the Guardians of Senkhet did him in [Biased]

Nominations will stay open for the next 48 hours or so.

As AR noticed last time, defence will run simultaneously.
 
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
 
I intend to nominate Professor McBride.

I should say that I have no particular reason to think him guilty (or innocent), but nonetheless consider that lynching him is the best deal currently on offer in a very bad market.


My reasoning: McBride is either guilty or innocent. If he is guilty, then lynching him would be a good thing, and no further argument is required.

But he might be innocent. Why is it better to lynch him than anyone else who might (equally) be innocent? Because it tells us more. Our detective is dead. We will get no help in finding the guilty and clearing the innocent as I'd hoped we might. So it's down to us to wring as much information out of every vote as we can. Information is vital - it is our food, our water, our currency, our life. Everything we do from now on must be aimed at finding and testing and analysing knowledge. Otherwise we die.

Now yesterday's vote was pretty quickly made a contest between lynching McBride and doing nothing. Our Cultists would have liked McBride dead if (as we are assuming) he was innocent (they would rather lynch an innocent than risk a random vigilante slaying), but more than that they want to remain inconspicuous. So it is reasonable to conjecture that one at least voted for ‘no lynching'. Who?

Our pool is:

Professor McBride himself
Lady Bernadine
Papagena
Arsène Beauregard
Haji
Tavish McCallum
Hyacinth Smudgeson

This is the point:

Miss Smudgeson's vote was meaningless - the issue was decided, so of course she would vote in a way to avoid risking emnity regardless of her own interests. Arsène's was cast by proxy - we can't know when he made his decision and so we can't read much into it. Andrew (an effective 'no lyncher' voted for Rose under a claimed misapprehension). So the pool divides thus:

The first three voters, Professor McBride, Lady Bernadine, and Papagena, who started the run of ‘no lynching' and the two who voted when it mattered - when McBride was in serious danger - Haji and Tavish.

My observation is this. When Haji and Tavish voted, McBride had six votes. Rose was already safe, so it was him or no one. Voting for him was inconspicuous - there would be nothing suspicious in following a lead of six others, most of whom would be innocent. So if Haji or Tavish were cultists, and McBride not, they'd have sunk him. Or tried to. Much much better for them to see him dead than risk a vigilante taking a shot in the dark.

So it seems to be that if we lynch McBride AND he's guilty, we will have done well.

But if we lynch him and he's innocent, what we get in exchange for him is a pretty good indication that Haji and Tavish are innocent too, and (less certainly, but worth thinking about) we get a good lead on where the guilty ‘no lynchers' are. We slice the pool from seven to four. That's worth doing. It's a good deal. It's certainly better than any other random guess.
 
Posted by Hart (# 4991) on :
 
Haji caught himself halfway through cursing and recited the 1st sura 70 times to make up for it. No vigilante, then: an expensively won piece of information. They definitely need to lynch someone this time, or else the guardians will run away with it.
 
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on :
 
Professor McBride cleared his throat and began to speak:

"I must start by assuring you all that I am absolutely innocent of any involvement with this ghastly group of outlaws who 'guard' the tomb in such a violent way. As much as Whiskers was my rival, I had no wish to see him dead and I currently mourn for him.

"As for my voting in the last round, that was pure self-preservation. Of course I don't want to be lynched (and you will all regret it if I am because I am a regular citizen in this town) but equally, I did not want to see anyone else hang who may or may not be innocent. So I did not want to vote for myself, I did not want to vote for Rose, and so I had but one choice open to me. As for the timing, I wanted to get in early to make my case (as I had slovenly forgotten to put forward a defense during the appropriate period) and also to try and build some momentum towards 'no lynching'.

"And then we come to the reasoning of the Mr Abrahams, which I must say is more conjecture and surmising than concrete logic: He assumes that the Guardians of Senkhet will have voted as a block. I see no reason why this should be true. It would make more sense for them to vote differently from each other so as to avoid suspicion of their grouping. If I were in their shoes, I would want to start off by trying to secure the lynching of an innocent (such as myself), but I would want to keep at least one of my votes for later in case it was necessary to throw the poll one way or the other. On that basis, I would suspect Mr Abrahams himself for casting the first vote for my lynching (under the guise of having to do something), Rose, and Lieutenant Madoc (who, incidentally was the person who nominated Rose). These three all seem very keen to bump people off without much evidence so I wonder if one or more of them are not behind the dastardly murders.

"Now it is clear that the sheer force of Mr Abrahams' personality means that he is the de facto leader in this place. From a political point of view it is therefore senseless to nominate him because that is a vote that I could not hope to win. But either Rose or Lieutenant Madoc (but probably not both, since it was the Lieutenant who nominated Rose in the last round) might well be guilty. So there is a decision to make: should someone nominate one or other of them, and if so, who?"

And with that, the Professor sat down and waited to see how the other members of the camp would respond.
 
Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:

My observation is this. When Haji and Tavish voted, McBride had six votes. Rose was already safe, so it was him or no one. Voting for him was inconspicuous - there would be nothing suspicious in following a lead of six others, most of whom would be innocent. So if Haji or Tavish were cultists, and McBride not, they'd have sunk him.

Arsène, still upset about the murder of his only French-speaking interlocutor, apparently an incognito Belgian detective ("Trust the Belgians to mess up everything, rotten beer, rotten motorways and a detective who can't even protect himself," he thought in a mixture of regret and resentfulness), is not convinced.

Everybody knows that casting the decisive late vote(s) for the lynching of an (possibly) innocent does make you look suspicious indeed.
The Pharaonic Mafia have no hurry at this early point to make a move that could so much expose them.
Also they do not know about the existence or not of a vigilante. This early in the game the chances of a vigilante killing an innocent are statistically rather big. So "no lynching" leaves the Mafia with the option of the vigilante being overly trigger happy. Much better option than being the person seen by all to throw the noose around an innocent's neck. At a later stage this early action would soon be brought up again.

So the abstentions of Haji or Tavish are not particularly indicative of anything imho.

By contrast the fact that Eli Abrahams puts forward such an unconvincing claim of innocence for them is indicative. They may be innocent or not, that is not the point. The fact that his reasoning is so obviously nonsense seems very fishy to me.

As I dislike the smell of fish anyway I suggest we lynch Eli Abrahams .

Apart from the above, I have two reasons:

a) Having watched him in his earlier incarnations I have come to the conclusion that his mere verbosity is such that when he is guilty he can fool too many people with a smokescreen of detailed claims and statements. Most people are too lazy or too busy to check all his claims in detail or think them through for logical consistency. Others who do try to follow their garbled reasoning and find them not adding up, think it is their own fault (a common mistake in my experience).
So, when guilty, he is dangerous.
By contrast when he is innocent the very same verbosity is usually useless because his equally verbose contributions are usually so zwürbly and würschtlingly confusing-round-the-corner that they either don't help much at all or they are just a complicated way to state something plainly obvious.

b) I suspect the psychology of our Red Cat Godhead, who distributes each earthling in the Valley of the Kings his role, is such that she would not voluntarily relinquish power she has been invested with in favour of throwing dice. In other words: I suspect our roles this time have not been randomly allocated (I hope that I have not over-read some post where the opposite is stated, as was the case in previous games). I could see Lady-God-Cat-in-Red giving Mr Eli Abrahams a Mafia role (or the "switcher" role) just for the fun of watching him play it.

I admit that b) is rather a side argument and admittedly speculation (not least because the same speculation could mean he was allocated some other specialist role, that is a risk).

My main suspicion rests on his illogical claim re the innocence of Haji and Tavish.

And with this Arsène Beauregard withdraws into his tent for a little nap.
 
Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Hart:
No vigilante, then: an expensively won piece of information.

Can you clarify how you came to this conclusion, please?
We only know a vigilante did not strike last night. But that may be bc he does not exist or because he chose not to take a shot in the dark. So we are none the wiser, are we?
Or did I miss something?
 
Posted by Hart (# 4991) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
You should all have your PMs by now – let me know if any problems. As usual the roles have been distributed at random by Mr. Excel.

The red cat god is clearly fictional superstition, but that's what she said (even though she doesn't exist). Einstein was wrong -- Allah does play dice. So, that's one reason for suspecting Eli down. Your other reasons are that he talks to much and you find his reasoning faulty. These are not reasons to lynch: if he talks too much and is guilty at some point he'll say something not faulty but incriminating. This has certainly not happened yet.

Given the choice between McBride, Eli and no lynching and no additional arguments beyond what have already been offered, I'd vote McBride.

As for the existence or non-existence of a vigilante, I guess I should have been more precise: there's no vigilante who's prepared to use their powers in a way that I'd want them to, so I might as well ignore them.
 
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
"And then we come to the reasoning of the Mr Abrahams, which I must say is more conjecture and surmising than concrete logic: He assumes that the Guardians of Senkhet will have voted as a block.

Where is it that I assume this?

quote:
Originally posted by Sylvander:
Everybody knows that casting the decisive late vote(s) for the lynching of an (possibly) innocent does make you look suspicious indeed.
[...]
"no lynching" leaves the Mafia with the option of the vigilante being overly trigger happy. Much better option than being the person seen by all to throw the noose around an innocent's neck.

Which would refute my argument only if either Haji's or Tavish's vote would have been enough to seal the Professor's fate. It wouldn't. When each of them voted, two more votes were required. Either of them could have voted to kill him, and made his demise much more likely, without being the noose-thrower.

See it from Tavish's point of view (because it's simpler, though the same logic applies to Haji):

You are guilty (let us assume). McBride is innocent (likewise). You want him dead. If you vote ‘no', then he lives, and a vigilante (if there is one) has at least a one-in-five chance of chance of killing you or a fellow guardian (even higher if you count a defector as one of you). Or you can vote ‘yes', leave it up to Miss Smudgeson to take the irrevocable step of condemning him (or facing the responsibility of letting him live) and without any suspicion increase the likelihood of seeing him dead. Why wouldn't you?

Hence if McBride is innocent, so's Tavish. So's Haji. And since it is almost certainly right that not all the guilty voted the same way, we end up with (very likely) one or two cultists in a pool of four, which is considerably better odds than three in a pool of thirteen. Now as a member of that pool of four, I appreciate that you might not welcome that as much as I do, but that doesn't stop this being the best deal on the table. Trust me to know when to take a good deal.
 
Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
 
Seth was slightly relieved when the people voted for no lynching. He hadn't liked the idea of lynching someone at first but thought it might be good to take a risk. However when the news of the death of Mr Champion reached him, and that this person was a detective, he started to tremble in fear. With a detective gone he knew that there may very well be a lot more holes in the desert and not all of them to be filled with guilty people.

No lynching didn't seem like a great option this time around. Seth felt a risk was definitely necessary now that the detective was gone. The people sitting on their hands wasn't going to help anyone except the brutal killers. Seth knew he had to make an informed choice of some kind, which might prove a little difficult. However, although he knew his reasoning may be slightly flawed (and hoped the others might point out such a flaw) he thought Hyacinth Smudgeson acted very suspiciously. She voted for no lynching (one of the killers must have voted no lynching to avoid suspicion), but Ms Smudgeson's vote was cast after she knew the result - almost like an afterthought as if to avoid further suspicion and hoping nobody would notice. Seth felt it best to lynch Hyancinth Smudgeson
 
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
 
So Hercule Poirot has been killed. That's not good.

People seemed to have congregated outside Eli Abraham's tent. Dai sat down among them on a handy stool clutching a double scotch. He apologised to Tavish for not remembering the injunction about talking at night, and resolved to mend his ways in future.

I rather agree with M. Beauregarde on the subject of the vigilante - all we know about the vigilante is that if they exist they don't like bumping off people at random. On the whole, I'm inclined to think that the vigilante is right to think like that. If you lynch an innocent you know you voted for them. If the vigilante kills an innocent, all you learn is the innocent's role.
 
Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
 
Andrew wore his hieratic robe. He put on the diadem of Ra, grabbed the stick of knowledge and headed to the local agora.

"Behold the power of Ra the Great and Only", he said. Everybody looked at him in surprise. He sure had their attention.

"Sons of the Northern and Alien Lands!

There are murderers in your midst!" the high-priest declared.

"I will explain to you why the late lord Whisker and Professor Champion were brutally murdered.

It was not for power over creation. It was not in servitude to the Gods. It was not because the Great Ra, or the almost-as-Great Senkhet demanded it. No. It was because of mere gold.

Who would have thought that a solid metal would ignite such hatred in the hearts of men as to kill the innocents to acquire it. I mean, it's yellow and it shines. But other things are yellow and shining too, yet people don't kill for them, do they?

Gold, because it comes from the Goddess Sakh, it has a strange attribute. It can drive people mad! That's why some people crave gold above everything else.

What has the maddening Goddess Sakh to do with us, you will ask. Everything!

As the excavations were taking place, we discovered the rubbish of Foth, which we thought to be a pile of rocks, but it turned out it's something equally useless. It's a pile of gold. A large, a gigantic, a gargantuan pile of gold!

This information soon leaked. The workers could not keep their mouths shut. Maddened by the power of the Goddess, they informed the local mafia about the discovery of the gold. And the mafia killed two great scholars to acquire a yellow shining thing. Tons of that yellow shining thing, to be exact.

What do we do know?

I tried alchemy to turn that yellow thing go green, but then I remembered the Green Fever, green paper evokes in the unlearned. I tried to turn the shining thing into water, but then it occurred to me that that would overflow the Nile, and we don't want that, do we? Last time such an amount of gold was turned onto water by our great ancestor Noah, it didn't go that well.

Then I tried to turn it into thin air, but I could not succeed. All the scrolls spoke about turning thin air into gold, and they had little information about the opposite procedure.

So, desperate as I see all I love go to the Underworld, I beseech you: Give me time to find the glasses of Ra. It is this great artifact, this great religious object, that this excavation is really all about. It is said in the ancient hieroglyphics of the City of the Dead, that the glasses of Ra, the first glasses ever made on the planet, which Ra the Ancient used when he came on earth because he had myopia, are to be found inside this excavation site. It's either here, or in Norway, the hieroglyphics aren't very exact.

When I find the glasses, I will put them on. And then we will be safe.

It's very easy really. So, please try not to kill yourselves and not be killed, while I am looking for the glasses of Ra in the catacombs. The hieroglyphics of the Necropolis say that when a person of great affinity to the Gods wears them, he can see right into the character of each person. So, when we find them out, we will know who belongs to the mafia, and we can turn them to the police. We will also know who slept with Tiger Woods, and if Obama is the Antichrist.

It is because of this great task that I beseech your help.

And if we survive through the dangers, I will offer to all those that helped me find the glasses, a beetle of Jes! As you all know, the beetles of Jes, which are very rare, by the way, are incarnations of very beautiful women. You only have to touch the beetle in a specific way, and it will turn into a 300 kilo Egyptian beauty to do as you please."

Andrew finished his speech, rendering everyone speechless, and descended into the catacombs. From his pockets buzzed the beetles of Jes.
 
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by El Greco:
gold...it's yellow and it shines...Gold...crave gold...a pile of gold. A large, a gigantic, a gargantuan pile of gold!...gold...a yellow shining thing. Tons of that yellow shining thing...such an amount of gold...turning thin air into gold...300 kilos of beautiful Egyptian gold

Eli closes his mouth and hurriedly wipes the saliva from his beard. He wasn't sure he had heard the last bit right, but as for the rest ... well, that had to be worth a bit of a risk. And it didn't seem as if the Whisker boy was interested in taking his share. Maybe if he could be persuaded that he had turned the gold to stone, and stone to dust, and dust to nought at all, as the English poet put it, maybe if EVERYONE could be persuaded that he had done so...

Eli sighs. Focus. Solve the puzzle. Solve the murders. The gold is for later. The gold is there just to let you know who's won...

 
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on :
 
Lady Bernadine was troubled. Perhaps it was the faint chanting that could be heard amidst the sand flurries. Perhaps it was the distinct smell of opium being smoked in one of the tents near hers overnight. Perhaps it was the plaintive meowing of a hungry cat, or the fact that people around her still seemed to want to kill each other.

But no; this was far more serious, because it was about money. She put down her copy of Ha-Mesheq Ha-Shittufi and frowned. Yes, that's what it was. The Jew had offered her an introduction to a lawyer for a five pound coin. Five pounds was more than a year's wages for the Egyptian labourers at the dig site. Either he was a ruddy good lawyer- or else....

She went off to get a cup of tea from Miss Smudgeson, taking a deliberate detour past the tent of Eli. She looked carefully at the picture writing across the front of his tent. She wasn't sure, but for all the world it seemed to be saying: "Screw the English".
 
Posted by AristonAstuanax (# 10894) on :
 
Owain woke up long past midday; keeping watch from dusk until dawn makes one a wee bit tired. Plus, it wasn't like the army was doing much of use during the day; the enemies outside the camp weren't causing much of a fuss, and those inside of it were bright enough to wait until night to do anything.

The local and imported crazies, however, weren't quite so bright. Shouting from the rooftops about tons of gold in a cast-off dressing gown wasn't making his job any easier; apparently, at least one of his men had had to use rough words with the local fast-talking junk merchant. Sometimes, it really did seem as if talking to the cat was the most sane option.

"Lieutenent Davies! Where in this sand Hell have you been?"
Oh no. The Captain again.
"Anything new, sir?"
"Another arcaeologist's been murdered-or disappeared without a trace! One day he's here, the next, nothing."
Well this was certainly news. Apparently, several members of the camp were already making accusations; Owain thought it wise to watch things develop for a little bit before accusing anyone on substantive grounds. There was no need for a random accusation this time; he was quite content to let Hajii continue his prayers and Mr. Seth tend to his camels.
For now.

[ 25. October 2010, 23:05: Message edited by: AristonAstuanax ]
 
Posted by Smudgie (# 2716) on :
 
As she busied herself with little urn (oh, how she used to love watching the Two Ronnies back in her youth), heating up a goodly supply of real old English tea for the day ahead, Miss Smudgeson was shocked by the sideways glances of one of the people nearby. She had hardly been in the camp for two minutes and yet she appeared to have made an enemy. She had been far too busy with her endless task of getting the sandgrains out of the sugar to really get to know her new neighbours, apart, of course, from that lovely lady Rose who was such a frequent frequenter of her teatent.

Still, the teatent was indeed the place to glean snippets of local knowledge and her customers certainly provided plenty of gossip one way or another. An affair here, an argument there, secrets and suspicions aplenty after the murder of that archaeologist.

But what was this? Another murder? Of a detective, no less? And she herself accused of it? She was not sure whether it made it better or worse that she was being accused by that scruffy desert fellow who smelled of camels. The insolence of the man!

Miss Smudgeson straightened her pinny, dusting the sand out of the apron pocket. No, there was no use worrying about random accusations when there was work to be done and thirsty people to supply with her reviving brew. She would just have to listen more carefully to the talk around the urn and see if she could find out any information which might lead to the true killers. The sooner they were rooted out, the better.
 
Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Hart:
quote:
Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
You should all have your PMs by now – let me know if any problems. As usual the roles have been distributed at random by Mr. Excel.

The red cat god is clearly fictional superstition, but that's what she said (even though she doesn't exist). Einstein was wrong -- Allah does play dice.
Thank you, Sir. Arsène stands corrected. He is a hasty reader (nothing new there). Now he will muse upon a non-existent Red Cat who can speak (or is it "which", even in case of a goddess cat? What a language!).
 
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
 
Question to the Red Cat Goddess:

quote:
Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
Professor Champion has been murdered in retribution for his disturbance of the king's tomb. [...] which I guess gives the rest of you free reign to decide how the Guardians of Senkhet did him in

Can we take it from the above that this is a confirmed Guardians of Senkhet killing? Because it might be possible that, if the Guardians either unaccountably chose not to kill (which has happened in at least one previous game) or (more likely) were thwarted by a doctor, this was a vigilante slaying.

But the description appears to rule this out. Was that intended?
 
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
Question to the Red Cat Goddess:

quote:
Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
Professor Champion has been murdered in retribution for his disturbance of the king's tomb. [...] which I guess gives the rest of you free reign to decide how the Guardians of Senkhet did him in

Can we take it from the above that this is a confirmed Guardians of Senkhet killing? Because it might be possible that, if the Guardians either unaccountably chose not to kill (which has happened in at least one previous game) or (more likely) were thwarted by a doctor, this was a vigilante slaying.

But the description appears to rule this out. Was that intended?

Yes, Professor Champion was murdered by the Guardians. Herrick just doesn't have time to write a death scene.
 
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on :
 
"Dear Madeleine,
There has been another lamentable and foul death, and Archie not even cold yet in his coffin. I did not know the man killed, for he was a Belgian detective trying to masquerade as a British Professor - obviously not a master of disguise, for it cost him his life.

Such a callous murder does make me tremble. He had gone up to the tomb to speak with Lord Whisker's son (I really can't bring myself to call him the new Lord Whisker, for he fancies himself as a high priest of the Old Kingdom - opium does such awful things to the mind here), and there he met a terrible end.

Some of the workers here are whispering that it was the curse of Senkhet, and some that it was the work of Jes; others say it was Ra himself. There is talk of scarabs and sphinxes, sickle swords and ceremonial spears - rumours are flying faster than fear itself.

The authorities are refusing to allow any of us to leave while they investigate. I am sleeping with a pistol under my pillow for my own personal protection. It will be a miracle if the dig proceeds much further now. Pray for me.
Y____rs etc,
L_____y B. Haighton Chats______y "
 
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
 
I am persuaded by Eli Abraham's (Eliab's) reasoning nominating Professor McBride (Imaginary Friend), although the nomination of Miss Hyacinth Smudgeson (Smudgie) is an interesting one. Is voting last an inconspicuous enough place for the Mafia to hide out?
 
Posted by Hart (# 4991) on :
 
The voting last suggestion is interesting. Of course, one can't dismiss the possibility that she was just busy with her copious tea duties. She wasn't late, just last. If someone was trying to remain inconspicuous, waiting till the end to vote would seem a dangerous strategy: you might be able to make an inconsequential vote, but you might be forced to cast the deciding vote. My vote's still against McBride, but I like that people are making new arguments. In a marketplace of ideas, the truth will out.
 
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
 
On more thinking, I'm not so sure of Eliab's proposal that if McBride is innocent, then Tavish is innocent. This is because I can well see some of the Guardians voting "no lynching" in the middle of the pack, in order to set up protective coloration for later in the game. "Look, I can't be a Guardian, I didn't vote to lynch an innocent."

On the other hand, I suspect Hart (along with Eliab) is not a Guardian, based on his offering of cogent reasoning about what the non-Guardians should do.
 
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
 
[OOC: I'm probably in Court all day today and then away from this evening until Sunday. You are spared my verbosity. Proxy vote instructions sent.]


Defence: I'm a mason. You will know this because no real mason will contradict my claim.

If you suspect that I'm lying and taking the chance that there aren't ANY masons, you can relax with the knowledge that I cannot possible sustain that lie to the end game because if no masons are ever killed, it'll look like there are none.

The doctor should be protecting me, as (I hope) he or she was before. We are going to win this if you do what I advise.

E.A.

[ 27. October 2010, 08:59: Message edited by: Eliab ]
 
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
Right, that'll do.

Nominations closed; voting opens.

You may vote for:


With thirteen people still alive, seven votes are required to secure a lynching.
 
Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
 
"Ah. The Masons. A nice club that was once very influenced by the Egyptian Gods. But when they decided to opt for a monotheistic-friendly approach, the Gods abandoned them, and they lost their power. Today they mostly play with swords and wear skirts. Weirdos."

"Professor McBride, a Mason has nominated you. What do you have to say in your defense?" said the high priest, wearing his nice white robe, fondling the ring of wrath.
 
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
Message from Amun-Rouge-Ra the red cat goddess*:

Eli Abrahams (who I would have expected to be a Jewish monotheist and consequently not inclined to praying to me, but there you go - I'll take devotion where I can get it) has made his imprecation unto me and wishes that a vote for Professor McBride may issue from the mouth of the oracle.

*How and why I've turned into a cat is rather unclear to me. I'm quite pleased with the progression from mere oracle to goddess tho [Big Grin]
 
Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
 
Arsène shifts his bonnet back to his right ear and the pipe to the left corner of his mouth (for balance). Much as he cannot deny that he is an ardent admirer of divine female beauty he cannot help but feel that goddesses are like cats in their somewhat ego-centric outlook on life.
"You've been made a cat-goddess, dear, no one will deny your shapely limbs, elegant stride, shiny hair and intriguing eyes," he mumbles, "but please do not focus on the latter part of your new identity only [Snigger] ." In Egypt the goddess-thingy only derives from the cat-ness. Arsène was actually quite amused by the idea that God was a cat. It went well with modern Western churches which had turned god into a kind of fluffy consolation-toy for all those in need of a spiritual cuddle.

As for the un-cuddly lynching business he was undecided. He felt it his duty to vote for whom he had nominated but of course was anything but sure he was after the right man.
He agreed with his suspect that lynching was important and no action was worse than wrong action. Thus voting differently from the first voter so early on would increase the risk of having a hung vote (and thus a not-hung player). Which was no fun and very bad.
In this vein he wished to point out for the record that if one of the two first nominees (McBride or Eli Abrahams) was guilty it would be in the interest of the Guardians to nominate another player - split votes make lynchings less likely. So the nomination of Hyacinth Smudgeson by Mr Seth ought to be remembered.

Arsène was sure he would vote for Hyacinth as third choice only. Tea was the only part of Brit cuisine he liked and she was the only member of the English party whom he had met before. Long ago before he came to the desert, in a place called IRL.

Eli's mason claim was a new twist. Truth? Or a cunning or perhaps even a desperate lie?

Beauregard wondered whether the other masons could confirm it? What did they stand to lose? The wicked Guardians might go after them by night - unpleasant for the individual but not so much for their team. The Guardians would lose precious time in the process of killing masons, time they could not use to kill doctors or possible other detectives. Plus they might hit and find a mason protected by the doctor who after all would know as much as they do. This perhaps-mason in fact called to be protected.
They could on the other hand do the opposite and leave the masons alone, killing others - but that would still leave the honest citizens a higher likelihood of lynching evil Guardians by excluding the masons from their anger.

So Arsène, uncertain which way the general mood wouild go, felt that since he had nominated someone, thus declaring himself, he need not be among the first to vote.
Hart seemed independently have come to a similar conclusion re Eli Abrahams as he had but it was unclear how the others thought. If towards the end the votes were split he'd rather top one of the two others canidates than nobody at all.

Thus he procrastinated, also to give the other masons time and chance to come clear and support Eli's claim. He thought this would help the honest folk more than the vicious.
 
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by El Greco:
"Professor McBride, a Mason has nominated you. What do you have to say in your defense?" said the high priest, wearing his nice white robe, fondling the ring of wrath.

"I would say that I don't know if I'm allowed to continue my defense now that we are in the voting phase, and that I would find it helpful for those that set the rules to provide some guidance" replied the professor.
 
Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
 
Seth sat on the dunes watching the wind scatter grains of sand and waited for further news
 
Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
 
While the high priest was chanting, he was granted a vision of the Great Ra.

Apparently the Only One was being busy running the world, but at some point a memo dropped from the Throne of His Greatness (a very down-to-earth throne, by the way, if you compare it to the thrones some other deities have) which contained some divine thoughts on the issue that troubled the high priest.

"Be careful lest *spit* Eli Abrahams *spit* is a *spit* mobster *spit*. He could be acting out of an elaborate plan to out the true masons so that his clan could execute those who were really valuable for the community. If the masons made themselves known so that they could disprove Eli's claim that he was one of them, then Eli's identity would be uncovered, but at an important toll.

When the mafia gets to know who the masons are, then they could focus on the rest, the non-mafia non-masons crowd, so they will get rid of the valuable members the Great Ra had forethought to send among you."

The high priest felt enlightened by the wisdom of the Great One. He was going to return to earth and warn his friends when, as he bowed before the Greatest of the Great, and the Only of the Ones, he saw another memo dropping from the throne. Trembling, he took the parchment, and started to read the hieroglyphics.
 
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
 
Dai noticed a couple of people procrastinating. Well, he could sympathise. Up to a point. He voted for Professor McBride.
 
Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
 
Andrew didn't know that while he was in ecstasy his lips were speaking the words of the Gods to all who could hear.
 
Posted by Hart (# 4991) on :
 
Haji placed his stone in the urn, and then realized this wasn't how this particular species of infidel voted. He concentrated, put on his best impression of their 'bold' voice, and proclaimed, "Professor McBride."
 
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
Professor McBride is right that we are now in a voting phase; the time for wrangling is over.

Please cast your votes based on your opinions of the discussions up to now.
 
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on :
 
Well, thought Lady B, the Welsh sergeant and the camelteer are at least consistent; they have both voted for McBride again.

Poor Professor McBride: first round he was nominated by Rose (interesting that she didn't counter accuse her own nominator) and this round by Eli, who openly claims to be a mason.

Lady B. had no particular liking for Archie's rival, so she went and looked at the drawings on Eli's tent again. Yes, she was certain that after the copulating couple, there was a towering cricket bat, wicketstand and ball descending to smash them.

Eli Abraham I am voting for you because this is such awful graffitti. That tent must go.
 
Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
 
Seth was shocked at Eli's sudden revelation. Could it be a trick? Was this a murderer in disguise? Seth was even more confused, having already spread word on the winds of the desert that Hyacinth might be one to watch. But Seth knew this was now the season of great risk, and Eli did seem to know something other people didn't. Seth, with a sense of trepidation, votes to lynch Professor McBride
 
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on :
 
Tavish sighed deeply when he heard the news about the detective. There seemed to be a common theme occuring here. First Big Whiskers, then the mustachio'd detective. Looked like the next one to fall might be him - or, he chuckled, that cat that seems to run around here like she owns the place.

Drastic action was called for.
He grabbed a knife.
and slowly hacked away at the bristles under his own nose.

Sure, it was an unorthodox way of trying to protect yerself, but no better, in his opinion, than all these back and forths of logic and argument which were nippin' his heid, or the crazy god-talk of some other folk.

time to fight back, and not take this lying down.
He was going to join in the calls for a lynching of Professor McBride. If for no better reason than feeling uncomfortable around an Englishman with a Scottish name. That, and the man's open dislike for Archie.
 
Posted by AristonAstuanax (# 10894) on :
 
Lieutenant Madoc decided that it was time to outhink his enemy by being his enemy. He remembered seeing a carving near the tomb entrance of some of Senekhet's soldiers; as his mind wandered in a half-waking, half-dreaming trance, he transformed from Lieutenant Owain Dafyd Rhys Madoc of the South Welch Borderers to . . . well, he couldn't pronounce any of these names, but, with that splendid armor, it didn't really matter. Of course, with the weight of all the gold he was wearing, he didn't see how he could murder anyone (smother them to death?), but he sure did look impressive.

Captain Rhys-ho-tep, the immortal guard of Senekhet's tomb, looked over his three mortal servants. What would their master's bidding be? He briefly flirted with the idea of ordering them to eliminate the so-called "captain" of the foreign army that had invaded his homeland, but quickly saw that, really, the dashing young lieutenant with good ideas, a penchant for action, and a smashing moustache would make a better target. Far better to eliminate those camp members who were busy thinking and acting, rather than the ineffectual bumblers.

Rhys-ho-tep saw that the job of his agents was not primarily to kill the invaders, but rather to outlast them, evading detection until, by a gradual process, they found themselves consigned to the shifting sands. If his asassins were too overt, they would be lynched, which would not only reduce their numbers, but give the invaders extra room for error (the fewer Guardians, the fewer camp members that needed to survive for their own victory), in addition to possibly giving evidence implicating the other members of their company. Though large numbers of killings would lead to fewer days passing, and thus fewer chances to execute his soldiers, this consideration had to be weighed agains the need for secrecy and stealth.

Thus, a balance needed to be found: how to maximize offensive capibility (number of camp members killed) within the confines of a need for secrecy.

The captain saw that forming a voting bloc would be suspicious; there was no way he could allow all of his agents to vote the same way. How, then, ought they be split? Should two vote to lynch, one to aquit, or vice-versa? Aquittal certainly seemed to be a less suspicion-gathering option--but what if two votes, rather than just one, meant the difference between life or death for an innocent? Rhys-ho-tep thought about the vigialante once thought to be in the camp, who acted only if nobody was lynched. With either result, two people died--one by his orders, the other from within the camp. The only difference was whether the camp killing was directed by a single actor, striking at more-or-less random, or by a vote of the entire camp. The chance of a single asassin striking any of his agents was low--30%, assuming 3 Guardians, 1 asassin, and 7 others--and likely to be outweighed by remaining under cover of secrecy. Thus, the best option, assuming the possible existence of a vigilante (as many had done), was to have two of his agents vote against a lynching, one vote for someone to die.

Lieutenant Madoc returned to himself. If his Egyptian self was correct, there were two Guardians among those who voted against a lynching, and one among those who voted for either McBride or Rose. Finding two Guardians among seven seemed like better odds than one among seven. Thus, it seemed prudent to vote for someone who voted against lynching.

There was only one such nominee availible for Madoc's vote--Professor McBride.
 
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on :
 
"I would like to cast my vote for Eli Abrahams," said Professor McBride.

"This is based on the fact that he is ignoring all reason in concocting his false and defamatory accusations against me. This (naturally) makes me suspicious of his motives and therefore I wish to see whether he is in fact the Mason that claims to be.

"And lastly, if you decide to kill me then that is all well and good. Chances are that my career is over and I have nothing else to live for. But you will all be sorry when I am revealed as the citizen that I am."
 
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
 
I vote to lynch Professor McBride.

Also I think it's premature for the other Masons to reveal themselves. Better to keep the Guardians guessing than to give them some known beneficial targets.
 
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
 
Here's why I voted against Professor McBride. I think claiming to be a Mason is a claim that would be highly risky to fake. So I believe Eliab. Therefore I don't want to lynch him. And there aren't enough votes left to lynch Miss Smudgeson, even if I wanted to leave our teatent proprietorless..
 
Posted by CuppaT (# 10523) on :
 
Papagena wandered back out into the deserted desert to look for some beetles, or perhaps a mouse of some sort, maybe even a snake, if she were so lucky. There seemed no point to staying around Camp Sarastro any longer this day; she had stalked around the professor's tent and he had a death smell about him already.
 
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
Hi everyone

Just a reminder - the rules this time round make voting compulsory.

Even though a majority has been reached, those of you who haven't yet cast a vote still need to do so.

Cheers
Amun-Rouge-Ra
 
Posted by Smudgie (# 2716) on :
 
I too am beginning to become increasingly suspicious of Professor McBride.
 
Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
 
Arsène Beauregard had wearily trodden from his sleeping tent to his desk in the desert to resume his interrupted slumber.
First, however, he checked the desktop papyrus for new inscriptions and found that much had been scribbled there during the night. All was over, a sufficiently large mob had gathered to throw another professor into the quicksand by the oasis.

The masons were not allowed to out themselves at the current time of day (he still thought it wise if they did so the morrow) and thus Eli should have a chance to have his claim substantiated.
But anyways, he counted a score of 7-2 (one of which in self-defense). His vote was irrelevant.
But he had said he'd vote with the majority. Professor McBride, this way please ...
 
Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Here's why I voted against Professor McBride. I think claiming to be a Mason is a claim that would be highly risky to fake. So I believe Eliab.

The only problem is that he made that claim just before the time to defend oneself was over, so Professor McBride could not give an adequate defense against Eli's Masonic claim.

Of course, Professor MacBride's question to the lesser feline deity might not be so naive either, as he could have asked for an opportunity not to make a defense, thus mudding the waters further.

Anyway, I waited long enough for the other Masons to contradict Eli's claim by voting against him without revealing their identities. Therefore I think it's plausible at this stage that Eli is indeed a Mason, even though there were problems in his reasoning.

So, I will vote for Professor McBride. One warning though: If the Professor is innocent, then, Eli, you will not get away with it!

[ 28. October 2010, 09:58: Message edited by: El Greco ]
 
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on :
 
"For the record, we don't know for sure that there are any Masons" pointed out the Dead Man Walking.
 
Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
"For the record, we don't know for sure that there are any Masons" pointed out the Dead Man Walking.

True, but it would be quite a bluff for Eli to wager on that!
 
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
The votes are in -

Professor McBride - 10 votes
Eli Abrahams - 2 votes.

(Papagena/CuppaT has disappeared off into the desert - just this once I'll let it pass, especially since her PM box is full.)

Camp Sarastro is a dangerous place for academics. The Professor is well and truly lynched. He was a citizen.

Once Imaginary Friend has posted a death scene, night will fall.
 
Posted by CuppaT (# 10523) on :
 
Having had her fill of the wildlife in the sands, Papagena returns to the wildlife of the camp. Never being one to simply follow the crowd, she points her nose toward the tea shop of Miss Smudgeson, knowing that it will do neither harm nor good.
 
Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
 
bugger
 
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on :
 
The professor mounted the platform which had been erected for his hanging. As the noose was placed over his head, he demanded a final word to his accusers:
"Now you have significant evidence that Mr Abrahams is not as innocent as he appears. Look at what he has said carefully: examine it for unsubstantiated assumptions; look for who is vocal in agreeing with him; think carefully about the opportunities for deception that present themselves when someone with a forceful personality and a penchant for verbosity grabs the attention of the crowd. In short: look at the actual evidence, think for yourselves, and don't ever rely on the rabble-rouser to make decisions for you."

With that, the masked executioner pulled the noose tight, motioned that the professor should stand on a tall stool, and put a sackcloth bag over his head. The prisoner did as he was told, and a moment later the stool was kicked from under his feet.

The longest drop...
 
Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
 
I'm sorry, Professor. You might have been my father's arch-nemesis, but you didn't deserve such an end.

It seems that we have been fooled by Eli's cunning plan. Although I did suspect him for the silliness he tried to pass as reasonable thinking, and I did try to warn others about him, it seems that most were just deaf to the oracles of the Gods.

But you should rest in peace, Professor, because the Great Vultures will tear your soul apart, for not believing in the Gods. It sounds painful, and it is, but it's also a great honor, because you will be able to see the Vultures themselves, even for a brief moment, as they tear you apart in the Underworld. According to the most holy religion of the Egyptians, you will be granted this honor because you were a great scholar. Not bad for an unbeliever!

You should rest assured that Eli will get no such honor as the Worms With No Heads devour the intestines of his soul once he gets lynched for the injustice brought to you.
 
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
Night falls, lights out everyone.

And go to sleep this time. Or at least pretend to (reading a book under your bedcovers with a torch is allowable).

If you have a night action, please PM me now. Some of you were a bit slow last time - I may chivy you along a bit tonight if you don't make up your minds a bit quicker [Biased]
 
Posted by Hart (# 4991) on :
 
Haji awoke during the night to find a scarab beetle crawling over his forehead. Flicking it off, he noticed a menacing figure lurking in the shadows. This guardian was the last thing he would notice until on the last day he was awakened from his grave for the judgment. In his deathly sleep he dreamt, and was surprised at just how like Osiris Allah looked in his dreams...

[ 29. October 2010, 15:47: Message edited by: Hart ]
 
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on :
 
Lady Bernardine awoke to....no sound at all. It was very strange, for usually the first thing to be heard in the morning was the monotonous drone of the Imam Haji at prayer. She put her head out of the tent, but the only thing stirring was the pathetic figure of Professor McBride swinging limply from the yard-arm.

She shuddered. Had something happened to Haji? Lord, how she needed a cup of tea; but even the tea tent was closed. She sat down at her folding table and began composing another letter home.
 
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
Apologies for the delay, the cat goddess was at her birthday party [Big Grin]

Haji (Hart) has been most foully murdered. He was both a mason and the miller.

Nominations open.

Since we've now hit the weekend, nominations/defence will probably run until about Tuesday night.
 
Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
 
Does this mean Eli is both a Mason and stupid? [Paranoid]

It wouldn't be a surprise of course. The Masons admit just anyone in their ranks these days. That's why nobody takes them seriously at the gatherings of our Cult.

Was Eli extremely unlucky in his choice of McBride, or is he really guilty and the local imam didn't bother to say?

Pff.... Imams, Masons, a curse to both their houses!

[ 30. October 2010, 09:04: Message edited by: El Greco ]
 
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on :
 
"Eli Abrahams" wrote Lady Bernardine, "is no doubt quite capable of explaining away everything in his favour; but actions speak louder than words, and his actions have been destructive. I am resolute in my nomination."
 
Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
 
Seth felt dupped. Eli had a captive audience and now two innocent people were dead. He had better show up soon for some kind of explanation. Were the guardians sacrificing one of their own? What the hell was going on? Did a miller look at another miller and see a guilty person? Seth sat and waited as his camels groans travelled out over the desert sands.
 
Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
 
I think now might be the right time for the Masons to speak.
 
Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
 
Warning: longest post of my life.

quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
"Eli Abrahams" wrote Lady Bernardine, "is no doubt quite capable of explaining away everything in his favour; but actions speak louder than words, and his actions have been destructive. I am resolute in my nomination."

Steady!
What action precisely, thought Arsène? Nominating an innocent? Anybody who is active (e.g. nominates) runs that risk. We'd be ill-advised to punish activity on no other ground than that.
My original nomination (and McBride had made the same reasoning independently at almost the same time) was based on Eli's weak exoneration of Haji and Tavish.
That was yesterday. Today we know more.
We know that Haji was a mason and Eli claims to be one. If that was true his standing up for Haji even with relatively weak arguments would become very explicable, would it not?
Please explain: What other bad actions from Eli do you have in mind?

quote:
Originally posted by El Greco:
Does this mean Eli is both a Mason and stupid? [Paranoid]

Arsène is not sure why the killing of Hajj meant Eli should be stupid. And, as he just said, proposing an innocent for lynching is not stupid or suspicious in itself either, so long as there good arguments are brought forth. The more arguments someone brings the more information can be found about that someone as the days go by. Good for innocents, bad for guardians.

So what information have we gained ?
We now know there was a mason. The nature of the role requires there must be at least one more.
Hajj did not declare himself a mason and substantiate Eliab's claim.
This may be bc he felt his team would gain less by that information than the Guardians would.
Or it may be bc he thought the rules forbade it.
Or bc it was not true.
BUT he also did not contradict Eli's claim - the greatest risk for anyone making a false "I am a mason" claim.
Haji undoubtedly would have denounced a false mason claim (says Arsène hoping that it was not just a matter of not logging into the camp in time before nightfall (Eli's claim came very late in the day - suspiciously late? Not necessarily).

I quickly skimmed through the last pages. I had a wrong recollection in one of my earlier posts.
quote:
Originally posted by Sylvander:
Hart seemed independently have come to a similar conclusion re Eli Abrahams as he had

But it was not Haji (Hart) who had suggested nominating Eli but McBride (Imag. Fiend. His post had been written simultaneouisly with mine, posted just above).
By contrast Haji far from nominating him once spoke up for Eli!

quote:
Originally posted by Hart:
Given the choice between McBride, Eli and no lynching and no additional arguments beyond what have already been offered, I'd vote McBride.

And incidentally another player supported his accusation in a situation where Eli himself was already nominated:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
I am persuaded by Eli Abraham's (Eliab's) reasoning nominating Professor McBride (Imaginary Friend),

Supporting his accusation is one way of helping a player who is accused. And speaking up briefly for one another is a safe strategy for masons. At least until the first of them dies when earlier posts will reveal these connections. But remember: we win or lose as a team.

Unless he overlooked something, all this imho points towards an innocent Eli. Yep, Arsène changed his mind in the light of new information.


And now another question. What can we conclude from last night's choice of victim? Why did the guardians pick Haji? What, if anything made him stand out from the crowd? I don't have the time now to re-read all he said but a clue might be there (or they know his character as a player and found him dangerous solely on that basis) - either he was saying, proposing something dangerous to them. Or they wanted to make it look that way so that we would be pointed in a wrong direction.

Arsène is lazy, he has to return to his desk sleep again. If they had time, let one of those Brits check through Haji's contributions.


Just one last thing: Arsène was approaching the conclusion that he preferred Beaujolais to tea. Also the memories of an earlier encounter in that wee village called IRL had become blurred by nasty suspicions.

He increasingly disliked Miss Smudgeson's behaviour. Twice cast very late and non-decisive votes. Inconspicuous. And her postings were solely musings on the nature of tea and declarations on the harmlessness of a tea-lady. No reflections that one day could be found to be incriminating in the Light Of Hindsight - it all looked like someone attempting to be invisible while still showing up in public (since absence was often regarded as suspicious in this camp).
As it happens, Ms Rose had seemingly had similar thoughts (in the same post supporting Eli Abrahams quoted above) .
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
the nomination of Miss Hyacinth Smudgeson (Smudgie) is an interesting one. Is voting last an inconspicuous enough place for the Mafia to hide out?

Arsène Beauregard will therefore nominate Miss Smudgeson unless some other contribution to this debate either shows his a flaw in his thinking above or looks like a much better and coherent suggestion.
 
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
 
Dai Mortal had been puzzled by the suspicions cast upon Eli Abrahams. Dai could see no good reason for someone to lie about being a mason. It didn't make sense for a mafia member to claim to be a mason; the risk of contradiction was too high.

Dai had a lot more confidence in Abrahams' reasoning than he did in magic glasses supposedly hidden in the tomb. Logic and sanity are good. Dai liked logic and sanity. He didn't like magic artifacts hidden in ancient tombs. They just led to tentacles and other bad things.

[ 30. October 2010, 18:38: Message edited by: Dafyd ]
 
Posted by Smudgie (# 2716) on :
 
Miss Smudgeson decided that today the people in the camp needs must go without their refreshing cuppa. She was too shocked at the death of her fellow mason, Haji. With the Imam dead and herself and Eli Abrahams accused of his murder, the lodge was looking decidedly at risk, and the demise of the lodge could well lead to the demise of all good citizens in the neighbourhood and a victory for evil.

It appeared that one person in particular appeared to have it in for the brotherhood, and that person was Andrew Whiskers. Thinking about it, she realised that he also had most to gain from his father's death, living in the great man's shadow as he had and his clear intent of discrediting the masons and casting blame in their direction had to be pure bluff. Never trust a blustering archaeologist.

Miss Smudgeson shook the sand out of her handkerchief, wiped away a tear for the Imam and, with a deep breath, accused Andrew Whiskers (a.k.a El Greco).
 
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
 
Eli mutters a hurried prayer to the Red Cat Goddess, declares the opinion that there was no God but God, and that Mohammed is his prophet, and reverently says the Shema Yisrael. He briefly considers crossing himself, but decides that things are not quite desperate enough to merit that. Not just yet.

He is surprised how acutely the death of Haji has affected him. That it was, statistically, quite likely that one of his fellow Masons would be killed, and that this might also be useful in establishing his own credentials, is something that he had already contemplated, but it had not occurred to him that he would actually miss them when they were gone. He shakes his head to clear the melancholy thoughts that threaten to fill his mind. Time enough for them later, HaShem (or the Goddess) willing. First catch the killers.

 
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
 
Very well. I have two things to convince you all of. Most importantly, that I have a sound plan for finding the killers. Also that I am innocent.

I'll start with the second, since it can only help the first.

I claimed to be a Mason. There were three possibilities - (1) I was lying, and there were no real Masons to contradict me. (2) I was lying, but there were real Masons. (3) I was telling the truth.

We now know that (1) cannot be. Haji was Mason.

We also know that (2) cannot be. Because if it were, Haji would have known that I was guilty, and he would both have said so and voted to lynch me. You can also see (with hindsight) that he said (and I confirmed) at the start that there were THREE Masons. So even if Haji had some obscure reason not to call me on a lie, there'd still be two others out there who can. And now that Miss Smudgeson has declared herself, too (she's telling the truth, by the way) one of them could score two for one if we were lying. No one will contradict us, of course, because we are the real Masons, and if a Guardian claims to be a Mason to speak against us, it's suicide for them as soon as one of us dies.


Convinced? I hope so.


So, my plan. I never claimed that Professor McBride was guilty. I hoped he would be. It would have been a nice bonus. But that wasn't why I nominated him. I nominated him because I had no idea who was guilty, and I could see no evidence of anyone else having a better plan, and I thought that if we had to guess, it would be best to guess at someone whose death would tell us something if we were wrong.

Now let's test that. Seven people voted not to lynch on the first day. McBride and Haji are dead, and innocent. McCallum (almost certainly) and Smudgeson (certainly) are also innocent. If (as I think likely) at least one cultist is amonst the remainder, we have Lady Bernardine, Papagena, and Arsène Beauregard as lead suspects.

I don't claim to know for sure that any of them are guilty. But Papagena and Lady Bernardine have both acted as an intelligent cultist might. Papagena has kept her head firmly down. Lady Bernardine chose an aggressive defence and voted to lynch me. If she was indeed guilty, she would have known that McBride was going to be proved innocent, so might have expected that to support her accusation of me. It was her bad luck that last night's victim proves that there are real Masons who can expose me if I'm lying.

I'm not certain that M. Beauregard is innocent, but I'll look at the other two first.

Andrew Whisker looks pretty suspicious to me, as well. I can see why my fellow Mason suspects him. But then again, he is quite palpably mad, and I hesitate to form any firm conclusion.

To summarise. We lynched McBride, not because we were convinced of his guilt, but because we were buying something with his life. Let's not squander it. We've got a pool of three suspects, two of whom are worth a close look, and one loon who wants me dead (which would make sense if I'm on the right trail).

So my advice is, Lady Bernardine, Papagena, Whisker. In that order. I can't guarantee that they are all guilty. I'd be astonished if they are all innocent.

[ 31. October 2010, 21:21: Message edited by: Eliab ]
 
Posted by AristonAstuanax (# 10894) on :
 
A late night on guard once again kept the lieutenant sleeping until the heat of the day was unbearable; in this desert, though, that left him but little time to rest. He staggered in to the tea tent, his uniform in a state unbefiting a commissioned officer, and his rifle not in its usual place on his back. He blinked a few times, then asked Rose for some tea.
Needless to say, he was slightly embarrassed when he found out she wasn't Miss Smudgeson-rather than being mortified, as he would have been if awake.
He soon found himself with enough strong tea in front of him (the proprietress knew well enough not to waste the mild imported tea on half-awake soldiers who would have appreciated only the kindness, but not the tea) to bring him closer to life. He had mulled over many things during the night, especially once Papagena left him to...well, do whatever cats do in the night. He poured himself another cup of the ever-strengthening brew, then stopped, as if struck.
One of his ideas from the night, once hazy and indistinct, had come into sharp focus.
"Rose?"
"Yes Mr. Madoc?"
"I think I have an idea. There may just be a flaw in our strategy."
Owain laid out, mostly coherently, a thought he had pursued while he had once believed Eli to be a friend of the Guardians. Once, he had believed his advice to be self-serving; now, he thought it simply misguided.
According to Eli, the best thing for the potential turncoat to do was simply to wait as long as possible before deciding whether or not to defect; Lieutenant Madoc saw that this was perhaps the worst strategy for him or her to pursue. He also believed that Eli not only saw this, but was spreading disinformation for his own sake.
Each night this turncoat spent as a camp member was another night spent risking assassination by the Guardians. To join with them would only lower his or her risk of death; a lynching could kill them just as well if innocent as guilty, while the Guardians would never waste a night on one of their own. Once he or she had defected, however, the consequences for the camp would be disastrous.
First, the numbers would tip heavily in favor of the Guardians. Not only would they be gaining a member-going from what common agreement held to be three to four-but the camp would be losing one at the same time. In addition, the number of camp members who would need to survive to defeat the Guardians would increase by one as well. Thus, simply by switching sides in the night, the foes who dwelt in the shadow of noonday would be given the same advantage that the deaths of three innocents would have given them.
From here, however, it grew only more grim. A voting bloc of four in a camp of twelve was not something that could be ignored. One the one hand, the extra member would allow the same effectiveness in voting, while allowing the group as a whole to camouflage their patterns better; on the other, comprising a third, rather than a fourth, of the camp would mean only two innocent votes were needed to kill a camp member, rather than three-the assassins could comprise the majority of a vote to convict. Just as disturbingly, four Guardians could nominate four innocents-a full slate, giving a virtual certainty of an innocent's death. The Guardians, if quick enough, would be assured of victory; even if the camp caught on to these tactics and resolutely voted against lynching any citizen suggested by the overtly-operating Guardians, an assasination in the night would still happen...before another rigged voting session.
Most terrifying of all, however, was the knowledge possessed by the turncoat from his or her investigations. The cultists operated in the dark; the Veteran could give his or her life to take one of theirs, the Doctor foil one of their strikes, the Whore block the Doctor... If the cultists knew who to kill, who to preserve, and who to lynch, however, any advantage the camp had in virtue of the talents of its members would be lost. The turncoat had every reason to defect, for once he or she did, the camp was almost certainly doomed.
Lieutenant Madoc certainly hoped there was a flaw in his reasoning. Otherwise, hope seemed foolish indeed. Granted, if one of the Guardians was among the four nominated for lynching-and, by nominating a third part of the camp, it seemed probable that one of the three cultists had been fingered-the spectre of the enemy nominating a full slate of innocents could never come to pass. Still, Owain hoped he was in error somehow. He had no idea how to find this turncoat, especially if Eli were a Mason. True enough, Haji (peace be upon his spirit) was more than just a Mason-but Owain thought it unlikely that a member of a benign brotherhood could betray his Masonic oaths to join an altogether darker one.
He hoped he was right.
"So Rose, did I forget anything?"
"As a matter of fact you did, sir-about three buttons, your rifle, and your left boot."
Lieutenant Madoc's jaw dropped, then he rushed out of the teatent.
"Back in my day, dearie," said Miss Smudgeson, "it was only their uniforms that were that color."
 
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on :
 
" Dear Madeleine,
Well, it seems that not content with leading the push to lynch an innocent citizen (poor Professor McBride), Eli Abrahams now wants to lynch another innocent citizen in me. I do not know whether I will survive the next 24 hours, but I fear that this man could not lie straight in bed. He will go wherever he thinks it most lucrative; and I strongly suspect that he is a defector as well as a mason, IF you can trust anything he says. And I simply don't.

However I do fear for those left, for if I am sacrificed then the Guardians will have taken three innocent lives, and surely will commandeer the site and all that it contains.

Should any foul thing happen to me, please know that you, my dearest, will be the sole beneficiary of all I possess. I will always remember our times together as
the happiest of my life. Pray for me, for I am in need.
Y____rs etc,
L____y Bernardine H_____-C_______ y.
 
Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
I strongly suspect that he is a defector as well as a mason,

Arsène originally had thought that such cumulative identities were not possible but Haji's being miller and mason proved otherwise.

Eli's new reasonings for lynchings are unconvincing.

But killing a certified mason on the pure suspicion of double identity as defector?

Arsène makes his way to the worship tent and appeals to the Divine Cat for a rule clarification. A combination of miller and mason is one thing but a combination of mason (defined as innocent) and defector (defined as either innocent or guilty) seems somewhat self-contradictory. The other mason(s) could not fully i.e. always be assured of their comrade's innocence, rendering the notion of masonic lodges meaningless.

So: Do the rules even allow such a combination of mason and defector?
 
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
Amun-Rouge-Ra knows her own mind.

Unfortunately she is inscrutable to mere mortals.

[Razz]
 
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
 
Gentlemen and Lady,

If I were a Masonic defector, at this point I'd play for the Camp for a clear win.

I would know for certain that three people are innocent (myself, Smudgeson, and whoever I'd investigated on the first night). I think I can clear Tavish as well. I would know whether the person I'd investigated last night were innocent or guilty. Say, five known or likely innocents. If the rest of you manage not to murder anyone I can vouch for, then the cultists can kill at most one of my team per night. If the doctor keeps doing his job, it won't be me. And each night, I either clear someone else or expose a cultist. As long as I'm exposing cultists, we're happy. As soon as I clear another innocent, we're ecstatic, because then we're the majority, and we can't fail.

Essentially, I'd be a detective who can't be fooled by the miller (not being a real cultist the miller gives me no option to join them) or the defector (because it would be me) and who starts with two 'free' checks on innocents. Madoc is quite right that, if I were to switch sides, the odds are still good that I could win it for the cultists, but I'll take 'certain' over 'probable' any day.

Unfortunately, and to my lasting regret, I'm not a defector. None of you need worry about the possibility, though, because if I were I'd still be on the right side.


It should be worth noting, of course, that if someone else is the defector, and they haven't switched yet, they could still do exactly what I've said that I would do in their shoes, and (depending on who precisely they've checked out and whether the known innocents are still alive) either present us with a victory now or the certain prospect of one very soon. As soon as they can say for sure that any two of Dai, Arsene, Papagena, Andrew, Rose, Seth, Madoc or Bernardine are innocent, plus themseles, of course, we have this tent well and truly pegged. If they can clear even one other person, we would have to work very hard indeed to lose.
 
Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Smudgie:
Thinking about it, she realised that he also had most to gain from his father's death

Madame, have you no decency?
 
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
 
Would it be too much to ask for those of you who haven't said much to let us have your thoughts about the situation?

I'm pretty certain about what we should do in the next day or so. But that (unless we are lucky enough to have a loyalist 'defector' - which I'm not about to bank my savings on) won't get us home. We will get some of the cult, but very likely not all.

We then need to find the remaining murderers. We can't count on there being a veteren to do the job, and it would be nice to close the account sooner rather than later. That means that we need to hear from everyone - especially those who voted for McBride first time around - with their absolutely best analysis of who they think is guilty and why. It's from that that we will be able to spot the killers.
 
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
 
I voted for McBride first round because (a) I was sure I wasn't a Guardian (so wasn't going to vote for myself) and (b) I felt that we gained more information by trying for a lynching than by voting "no lynching." I nominated him on the basis that he hadn't said anything yet, and that it might be possible to find the Guardians among those especially quiet people.

I voted for him again second round following Eliab's theory that by having a second round of voting including him, we would find out more information than if we tried to lynch a new random person.

What we found out is that Lady B looks suspicious by her refusal to believe that Eli Abrahams is a Mason, to the point of voting to lynch him last round, and nominating him on this round. On the other hand, the innocent citizen Professor McBride also didn't believe that Eli Abrahams is a Mason, so disbelief of the obvious doesn't seem to be limited to Guardians.

[ 01. November 2010, 21:23: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
 
Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
 
The problem with Eli is that he used what seemed as faulty logic at the time and we got to suffer because of this.

First, he incriminates Haji and Tavish only to exonerate them in the next sentence, which looks bloody suspicious. Why explain why they look guilty, only to say they aren't guilty?

And now Haji is dead, we find out that he was a mason, but he died before he could confirm Eli's claims that he is a mason too, or before we could find out whether Tavish is a mason too.

Eli could have been just unlucky, in his insistence that we lynch the professor, or he could have been plotting, being either a member of the mob or a mason that defected to the mob.

However, the way things evolved, we can read Eli's statement again, and see that he has been meaning to let us know who the masons are all along.

quote:
My observation is this. When Haji and Tavish voted, McBride had six votes. Rose was already safe, so it was him or no one. Voting for him was inconspicuous - there would be nothing suspicious in following a lead of six others, most of whom would be innocent. So if Haji or Tavish were cultists, and McBride not, they'd have sunk him. Or tried to. Much much better for them to see him dead than risk a vigilante taking a shot in the dark.

So it seems to be that if we lynch McBride AND he's guilty, we will have done well.

But if we lynch him and he's innocent, what we get in exchange for him is a pretty good indication that Haji and Tavish are innocent too, and (less certainly, but worth thinking about) we get a good lead on where the guilty ‘no lynchers' are. We slice the pool from seven to four. That's worth doing. It's a good deal. It's certainly better than any other random guess.

Essentially, he suggested we lynch an innocent person in order to learn that Tavish, Haji and himself are innocent. He sacrificed one possible innocent for three definitively innocents. And it would have worked, had the mob not murdered Haji.

So, I don't think we have time to make second thoughts about Eli or Tavish. They are masons. Period. We should proceed from here.

[ 01. November 2010, 21:39: Message edited by: El Greco ]
 
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
 
Dai thought about Eli Abrahams' request. He had been wrong about the reasons for people's behaviour often enough in the past to think that his suspicions were unlikely to be worth much.
For what they were worth, he agreed that both young Whiskers and Lady Bernadine were behaving suspiciously. Also Papagena the cat was keeping very quiet. But Dai hadn't lost his marbles to the point of suspecting a cat of bumping people off. People might say he was crazed but he knew better than that.
On a strategic level Dai thought that the strategy of isolating a group of people likely to contain one or more Guardians was sound.
 
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
 
Andrew has hold of the wrong end of the stick but is at least pointing it in vaguely the right direction.

Tavish isn't a mason. He's innocent (I think) because I can't easily see a cultist in his position voting as he did. That's what we got as compensation for guessing at McBride.

It wasn't really a ‘sacrifice'. We had to guess at someone. We might have been right or wrong. The point was that whereas all correct guesses were about equal, all incorrect guesses were not. An incorrect guess about McBride told us more than an incorrect guess about anyone else. That's why it was the right decision.
 
Posted by CuppaT (# 10523) on :
 
Papagena speaks when she has a question or knows what to say. Otherwise, she keeps quiet and is suspicious of nearly everyone. The desert was never a friendly place.
 
Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
 
Arsène finds Eli's far-reaching conclusions from people's voting behaviour on a single occasion unconvincing. Tavish is not cleared at all, we simply don't know.

A Guardian called upon on day 1 to cast a late, hence (near-)decisive vote to lynch or not lynch is faced with two equally good options: he can a) lynch or b) look innocent. He has no particularly strong reason to go for a). It is not very important for the Guardians to lynch on the first day, Far more important to build a reputation of harmlessness, e.g. examples of innocent behaviour in order to quote them later. Not necessarily to quote them oneself, mind.

Any Guardian makes reflections along the lines of "what will it look like if I behave in this way" that lead to a "what will they think that I think that they think" spiral, since of course all guardians either do what is advantageous for murder or the opposite of it, for the benefit of disguise.

Clever players could even revert to tossing a coin or die in order to guarantee themselves a humanly impossible random element in their voting pattern in such a situation.

Especially with the detective gone the only way to get Guardians to behave revealingly is when one of them is suspected or accused. Hence it must be better to accuse different people rather than completely clearing any of them so early in the game on the grounds of speculation.

quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
Gentlemen and Lady,

If I were a Masonic defector, at this point I'd play for the Camp for a clear win.

Really? Not for a second does Arsène believe you're that boring!
Even if the odds where better for the camp (as you claim on the basis of shaky mathsematical constructions). The fun of playing Guardian is superior to the alternative and increased by having defected. It would allow one to switch sides and see with just how much deception one can get away with.
And joining this expedition is about fun even more than about winning, innit?

Of course if Eli could be mason and defector, so could Miss Smudgeson... whom I supected earlier.

The problem with nominating either of them is that we know already for sure that they're masons and there is only a 1 in [how many players are actually still alive?] chance of either of them being the defector as well (plus the rules are unclear whether this is even possible). That is just guesswork.

If they turn out to be just masons we have not gained any additional information.

It is no good lynching a certified mason. Our leaving them alone is the only benefit we have from their existence.

And if there is indeed a combined mason-defector (and other combined roles) in the camp we'll have to accept this as tough luck. For it would mean we are thrown back to mostly guessing anyway.
 
Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
 
I agree with Arsène. If Tavish isn't a Mason, I don't think we can clear him just because Eli says so. Eli's reasoning is far from being flawless.

And why on earth didn't Haji confirm Eli was a Mason before he died??? Haji, may the Great Ra puke your intestines! [Razz]
 
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Sylvander:
Especially with the detective gone the only way to get Guardians to behave revealingly is when one of them is suspected or accused. Hence it must be better to accuse different people rather than completely clearing any of them so early in the game on the grounds of speculation.

Drat. Now I'm questioning my agreement with Eli's nomination of McBride.

The depth of his reasoning has me suspecting Sylvander (along with Eliab and Smudgie) is an innocent citizen (though not a Mason like them).
 
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by El Greco:
And why on earth didn't Haji confirm Eli was a Mason before he died???

Perhaps because he felt it should be clear that falsely claiming to be a Mason is too high risk a strategy for a Guardian, and that letting the Guardians know that Haji was a Mason too would be giving them too much information, not worth the slight advantage of supporting Eli's statement publicly. (The slight advantage consists in winning over inveterate doubters like Lady B and McBride.)

Also Haji didn't know he was about to be murdered and that his own Masonic status would therefore be confirmed. If he hadn't been murdered, someone might be incorrectly arguing even now that actually Haji and Eli are both Guardians, colluding in a gamble that there are no real Masons to deny their false claims.
 
Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
 
I meant in his death scene. Couldn't he have said he, eli and someone else were masons?

And why do you think Smudgie is innocent?
 
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Smudgie:
.... She was too shocked at the death of her fellow mason, Haji. With the Imam dead and herself and Eli Abrahams accused of his murder, the lodge was looking decidedly at risk,

Either she, Haji and Eli are the 3 masons which Eli and Haji "guessed" at there being (as Eli pointed out earlier) [Razz] ,

or she and Eli are in this together, pretending to be masons, and none of the other masons are backing them up. [Paranoid]

[ 02. November 2010, 14:51: Message edited by: Wet Kipper ]
 
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Sylvander:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
Gentlemen and Lady,

If I were a Masonic defector, at this point I'd play for the Camp for a clear win.

Really? Not for a second does Arsène believe you're that boring!
Even if the odds where better for the camp (as you claim on the basis of shaky mathsematical constructions). The fun of playing Guardian is superior to the alternative and increased by having defected. It would allow one to switch sides and see with just how much deception one can get away with.
And joining this expedition is about fun even more than about winning, innit?

I'm a religious man, M. Beauregard, and the Jewish faith certainly does not exclude the prospect of reincarnation.

If winning chances were the same or better, I would not defect, even if I could. A reputation for tactical thought and perceptiveness would serve me better in my next life than a reputation for outright duplicity.

Indeed, if I am not mistaken, something of that may be at work here. Quite possibly, in a previous existence, I did something terrible.
 
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by El Greco:
I meant in his death scene. Couldn't he have said he, eli and someone else were masons?

No:
quote:
Originally posted by la vie en rouge, Amun-Rouge-Ra, Most Illustrious And Revered Red Cat Goddess, Ruler Of Our Fates, Guider Of Our Destinies, All Hail!:
Also no revealing of information in death scenes. If you are among the unlucky ones who don’t survive the duration, whatever you know will have to go with you to the grave, I’m afraid.

quote:
And why do you think Smudgie is innocent?
For the same reason I think Eliab is: because falsely claiming to be a Mason is too high risk a strategy for a Guardian, and too stupid a strategy for a Citizen.

I suppose somebody could be a Defector as well, but I'm not sure we have much defense against that.
 
Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
 
Come on. Guardians pretending to be masons would be suicide. Especially since we know there are real masons (as I said, the role would not make sense if there had only been the one). The real masons would already have made that public.

Btw. if Miss Smudgeson had the bad luck to be mason *and* defector (I'd venture to conject it is unlikely that this silly combination is allowed by the rules of our Inscrutable Divine Cat who, alas, is a silent non-oracle on this matter) we need not worry. I know her, Miss Smudgeson is a sweet-souled tea lady. If she had the bad luck of being a defector she'll die or give herself up from sheer terror.

Btw: This is a public message to the defector.
If you decide to stick with us - this being by definition the moment when you have discovered a Guardian (i.e. when you have to decide), by all means make the information public and let us lynch the rascal (is there also a feminine form of rascal? A rascaless perhaps) !
As I understand (or rather guess) it you are not another detective, i.e. after you found the first Guardian you lose the right to check one player per night. Hence make the information public asap! It may not even mean sacrificing yourself, since afterwards you are just an ordinary citizen and the Mafia have no special reason to go after you.
Should you by contrast NOT lose the right to investigate by night, we could check your accusation and then call on the doctor to protect you the following night.
All this of course only if you are not a scheming, devious, treachourous bit of a bad person who will defect just because defecting is more fun than winning. [Mad]

Someone correct me if that piece of unrequested advice is not as obviously good as I think.

quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
Gentlemen and Lady,

Why [Confused] If you are only talking to Lady Bernardine, why the "gentlemen"? If you mean to address us all, why only one "Lady"?
 
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Sylvander:
If you are only talking to Lady Bernardine, why the "gentlemen"? If you mean to address us all, why only one "Lady"?

Lt Madoc, yourself, Lady Bernardine.
 
Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Sylvander:
[qb] [QUOTE]Originally posted by Eliab:
[qb] Gentlemen and Lady,
A reputation for tactical thought and perceptiveness would serve me better in my next life than a reputation for outright duplicity.

Good heavens! You think about the next life already. I dearly hope reputations do not survive beyond the day.
I have a faint recollection that after my former lives here the reputation among the ladies is also not entirely up to scratch. I am very gracious they do not seem to translate that into lynchings.
 
Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Sylvander:
Come on. Guardians pretending to be masons would be suicide. Especially since we know there are real masons (as I said, the role would not make sense if there had only been the one). The real masons would already have made that public.

Could you tell who the real Masons are?

Let's say I make a public announcement that I am a Mason and Eli isn't. Eli might indeed be a mobster pretending to be a Mason, but it's also possible that I'm a mobster trying to get Eli lynched and win one round in favor of the mafia, especially if you were getting suspicious about my role...

Or the Masons could wait and let the Mobsters expose themselves, and then it might be easier for them to vote all together in order to have a mobster lynched. When we find out that he/she was a mobster, then the Masons could identify themselves and tell us who the other mobsters are.

I don't think it's very likely that Eli and Smudgie are mafia, but it's possible, and I'm unhappy by the way the lodge decided to handle this.
 
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Sylvander:
Of course if Eli could be mason and defector, so could Miss Smudgeson... whom I supected earlier.

I doubt that there's a mason-defector. It makes it pointless to have any masons if one of them could in fact turn guilty. A mason-miller is a combination that might have interesting results. A mason-defector isn't. I think we can rely on Eli and Miss Smudgeson not to go over to the other side.
Besides, if can't rely on them we have a much lower chance of winning than if we can. If you don't know which of two situations is more likely, you should proceed as if you're in the situation that gives you the better chance of winning. So, even if it weren't more likely that they're not defectors, we should proceed as if we're sure that they're not. Second-guessing isn't going to help us.
 
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by El Greco:
Let's say I make a public announcement that I am a Mason and Eli isn't. Eli might indeed be a mobster pretending to be a Mason, but it's also possible that I'm a mobster trying to get Eli lynched and win one round in favor of the mafia, especially if you were getting suspicious about my role...

Everyone else decides who they believe (probably me, because Miss Smudgeson vouches for me, so it's two to one). The person not believed is lynched.

If he was lying, he was probably also guilty. We're happy. If he was telling the truth, we realise that we've made a terrible mistake and lynch the other. Who was lying, and therefore is probably guilty.

So if I'm lying about being a Mason, two people know it (Haji says there were three, less him is two). They also know that Smudgeson is lying. One of them speaks up - the worst that can happen is that we trade one innocent life for two cultists. A bargain for us. A bad deal for them.

It doesn't work in reverse. No cultist is going to stand up and claim to be a mason now, because the best they could hope for is to see off one innocent in exchange for one of theirs. More likely (because two voices prevail over one) they lose a cultist for nothing. A bargain for us. A bad deal for them.

So you can be sure that I'm a Mason. The only alternative to the view that I'm innocent is the fantasy that I might be a Masonic defector. I'm not, but you don't need to worry about it, because it is in my interests to be loyal anyway.
 
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
 
In the case of competing claims to be a Mason, then the problem arises of figuring out who is telling the truth. For the lying Guardian, it only gives them a 50% chance of coming out of the resulting immediate fracas unlynched, plus if the innocent is lynched, then the Guardian will surely be lynched anyway on the next day. If bands of Masons and Guardians emerge from the woodwork supporting the competing claims, then it gives the Citizens a very likely win because we only have to lynch one of those claiming to be a Mason to discover which band is the Guardians.

In point of fact, we haven't had any competing claims to be Masons, which shows either that the real Masons are phenomenally stupid (which I doubt), or that Eli and Smudgie are themselves real Masons (which is what I believe).

[cross-posted with lots of people. That was in reply to Andrew "The Greek" Whisker.]

[ 02. November 2010, 16:14: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
 
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
 
Looking at the list of nominess (Lady Bernardine (Banner Lady), Eli Abrahams (Eliab), and Andrew Whisker (El Greco)), what we should be debating is whether we should vote to lynch Lady B or young Whisker.

Lady B's vote against Eli and subsequent nomination of him, on the basis of doubting he was a Mason, looks suspect to me.

Whisker initially looked suspect to me, based on his doubting of Eli's Masonic claims, but now it seems just as likely that he hadn't fully thought through the foolishness of a Guardian claiming to be a Mason.

But maybe Lady B has been equally slow on the uptake on this point. McBride certainly was.

So put me in the highly undecided category at the moment, though leaning against Lady B.

[ 02. November 2010, 16:45: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
 
Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
[cross-posted with lots of people. That was in reply to Andrew "The Greek" Whisker.]

Egyptian! I'm Egyptian! EGYPTIAN!

See? Here's my family tree: My great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great -great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-grandfather was a worker in Pharaoh Paf's mines!

I'm as Egyptian as it goes! [Razz]

[ 02. November 2010, 16:47: Message edited by: El Greco ]
 
Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Looking at the list of nominess (Lady Bernardine (Banner Lady), Eli Abrahams (Eliab), and Andrew Whisker (El Greco)), what we should be debating is whether we should vote to lynch Lady B or young Whisker.

Well, I know I'm innocent. I also know that Lady B looks suspicious to me. I agree that it might be a good idea to leave out Eli. After all, he worked hard to publish all those pamphlets [Razz]

If only me and Lady B appear to you to be the only viable candidates, then a) either Lady B is also innocent, in which case we will be voting against an innocent, or b) Lady B is mafia, in which case the other mobsters might help her by voting and spilling bile against me, which will result in another innocent getting lynched without fully exposing a mobster. After all the mafia could make it appear as if Lady B is guilty so that the community lynch two innocents in two subsequent rounds!

I think it's prudent to have more candidates to choose from. And because I find Seth's (christian fletcher) silence suspicious, I nominate him. At least we won't have too narrow a selection of choices to choose from!
 
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
 
Rose looked up in shock from her calculations. A Guardian must be found today! If another innocent were lynched, and the Guardians killed someone again tonight, the camp would be down to six people tomorrow. If three of those were Guardians, the innocents would not be able to muster the requisite majority to ever lynch a Guardian.
 
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
 
Rose's shriek had brought the camp running. She looked down at her calculations again, and turned bright red. "Sorry, I was all wrong. We'll still have 9 alive in the camp tomorrow."

She ducked quickly back through the flap of her tent and drew her most dogeared textbook out from under her bed: Remedial Counting.
 
Posted by CuppaT (# 10523) on :
 
Rraaw. Would it not be 10 still alive, if one is lynched?

EG Andrew
CT Papagena
AA Lt. Madoc
D Dai
E Eli Abrams
FC Seth
WK Tavish
BL Lady Bernadine
AR Rose A
Sy Arsene
Sm Ms. Smudgeson
 
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
 
10 alive this evening after our daily round of lynching, but I assume the Guardians will succeed in killing an innocent tonight, leaving 9 alive for the next round of nominations and voting.
 
Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
 
I suggest we indicate our most urgent suspicions here. A sort of dry run for the real vote.
Why?
Since for technical reasons we have to vote in succession the guardians could, by voting early, steer us in one direction which might force the late voters to follow the trend rather than go by their conviction. It is vital that we lynch someone as the Guardians are unlikely to commit suicide.

Andrew Whisker's (El Greco) nomination of Seth could be just a means of saving his own skin - the more nominees the hihger the likelihood of a no-lynch vote. It could also make sense - silence looks suspicious, I agree. But McBride was nominated (partly) for being silent, too. Silence alone is not enough if we have better reasons for suspicion.

Let's go back to nominations. Eli took the trouble of counting votes on day 1.

quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
Seven people voted not to lynch on the first day. McBride and Haji are dead, and innocent. McCallum (almost certainly) and Smudgeson (certainly) are also innocent. If (as I think likely) at least one cultist is amonst the remainder, we have Lady Bernardine, Papagena, and Arsène Beauregard as lead suspects.

I have not checked these voting patterns but I hope if Eli had presented the facts wrongly, someone would have noticed and said so (of course if we all are lazy like that ...)

Now, I agree that some mobsters will have voted "no-lynching", hence Eli's suggestion is sound. He reduces the list to three suspects - as I am one of them, the list for me is down to two, only one of whom is nominated (Lady B). What I do not follow is: why does Eli think that McCallum is "almost certainly not guilty". I missed the reason for that. Can you explain (repeat) please?

Assuming Eli can come up (repeat) the reason why he excluded McCallum from the list, I see two people:

Lady Bernardino and Papagena.

Of these two he nominates the Lady because of ... I'm not sure. Her aggressive defense?

As I said above, silence to me is more suspicious and Papagena is very silent indeed. It gives one no handle for analysis. So out of the two people Eli chose I nominate
Papagena. Hoping her silence has no other motives, like medical duties. But that cannot be helped.

I admit that too many nominees is risky for the camp. We kind of need to agree beforehand what we'll do.
I therefore will vote late but publicly declare my voting intentions.
I would not advocate a vote for Seth (unless I am too late to drive us in any other direction).
Reason: suspicion against him rests solely on his silence. My suspicion against Papagena rests on her silence AND the exclusion process Eli outlined above. That is one more reason than for Seth.

So my preferences are
1. Papagena
2. Lady Bernardino
3. Andrew Whisker (El Greco)

Reason for 3: I find his late nomination of someone not in the debate so far looks like it could be a strategy to split votes.

(Admittedly I now could be accused of the very same thing. But I hope that laying all my little thoughts out in the open as I do will somehow betray my innocence. The amount of my talking should assure that were I a Guardian at some point I make a mistake that is not attributable to stupidity or lazy reading. And unlike Eli the Jew Arsène is a good Huguenot who does not believe in reincarnation and thus has no thoughts about his reputation and the next life).
 
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
Grrrrr. The Red cat goddess has been trying to open the vote for about the last 45 minutes and her internet connection is playing up…

Nominations closed; voting opens.

You may vote for:

With 11 people still alive, 6 votes are required to secure a lynching.

Time for the oracle to go to bed [Biased]

[ 02. November 2010, 22:51: Message edited by: la vie en rouge ]
 
Posted by AristonAstuanax (# 10894) on :
 
Lieutenant Madoc passed a note to the private outside his tent; ever since the incident with Rose in the tea tent, he'd been too ashamed to be seen in public.
" Oh Wise Red Cat Oracle, one of us, your humble supplicants, has been insufficiently clear in our nominations for the firing squad; M. Beauregard nominated Miss Smudgeson in an earlier speech."
 
Posted by CuppaT (# 10523) on :
 
Papagena figures she has probably been inspected early on, and found to be a lowly citizen worth ignoring for the time being. Bigger fish to catch, so to speak. But she has her suspicions about the guilty ones. As to silence, that is not the case; she has spoken fairly often. Just because one does not speak volumes, does not mean one is guilty.
 
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by AristonAstuanax:
Lieutenant Madoc passed a note to the private outside his tent; ever since the incident with Rose in the tea tent, he'd been too ashamed to be seen in public.
" Oh Wise Red Cat Oracle, one of us, your humble supplicants, has been insufficiently clear in our nominations for the firing squad; M. Beauregard nominated Miss Smudgeson in an earlier speech."

Err no he didn't.

He thought about it but didn't actually make a formal nomination in the end.

Anyway, Papagena has offered her defence, so no more wrangling please. Please cast your votes without any more deliberations.
 
Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
 
Seth woke early in the morning after a full week of camel trading at another market out of town. He was tired, had been neglectful of his other duties and now found himself in the firing line, accused by a mad wannabe priest who made little sense even at the best of times. Seth had as many thoughts as there were grains of sand at his feet. Like the sand, every time he thought he had a grasp on a good solid argument, it would all slip away through his fingers and leave him at square one.

Seth needed time to think <and to read over Eli notes....again>
 
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
 
No one wants to open the voting then?

quote:
A confirmed innocent nominated by someone suspicious. So, no. Also, I'm hardly likely to vote for myself.

quote:
  • Lady Bernardine (Banner Lady), nominated by Eli Abrahams (Eliab)
  • One of my pool of suspects. Acting most suspiciously in accusing me even after it was obvous that I was a mason. Nominated by a known innocent. Probably the best choice.

    quote:
  • Andrew (El Greco), nominated by Hyacinth Smudgeson (Smudgie)
  • I change my mind about Andrew Whisker every time he opens his mouth. I think he's being deliberately obscure, and doing it well. There could be an innocent or a guilty motivation. His accuser is innocent. I'd be inclined to watch what he does and see how consistent that is with his words. I'm not confident enough to lynch him yet.

    quote:
  • Mr Seth (fletcher christian), nominated by Andrew (El Greco)
  • I can't see any real reason to suspect Seth (or to acquit him, for that matter). Seeing whether he's guilty might tell us something about his accuser, of course, but nothing conclusive. It's not a good enough bargain, in my view, given the other options.

    quote:
  • Papagena, (CuppaT), nominated by Arsène Beauregard (Sylvander)

  • I'm pretty suspicious of Papagena, I have to say. Guilt isn't the only reason for stealth, but it's a pretty good one. That said, I'm coming to the conclusion that her accuser, Arsène, might be the defector - he's too lazy even to count votes, but he's thought carefully about the details of the defector's abilities? Who's the one person who doesn't have a serious stake in who gets lynched in the first couple of days, but who definitely wants to know what the defector can do?

    Now if I'm right, and Arsène has already switched, he knows if Papagena is guilty or not. And in a vote like this one, if she is guilty he could nominate her for cover, or even with the intent of sacrificing her to prove his good faith with us. If he hasn't switched (or I'm wrong and he's a simple innocent) then he would nominate her regardless, because if either or both of Bernardine and Papagena are guilty, there's no reason to think that the last member of my suspect pool is too. So lynching Papagena wouldn't tell me much about Arsène.


    I can't see any good reason to vote for anyone other than Lady Bernardine.
     
    Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
     
    Seth had given it a bit of thought, and although he was still slightly uneasy, he felt there was still a good chance that Eli was actually telling the truth and that this whole thing wasn't an elaborate charade. He examined Eli's reasoning carefully, but felt there was still a definite risk; however, that risk was probably still worth taking even if it resulted in the death of an innocent, as their sacrificial death would still (hopefully) give us more information and still leave enough innocents to win the day.

    Knowing that it might be the blind leading the blind, Seth votes to lynch Lady B
     
    Posted by CuppaT (# 10523) on :
     
    Papagena hangs around the camp to hear the defenses of the others before voting.
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    "Defense time is over," murmured Rose to the shy cat which seemed to be hanging around the camp a tiny bit more than usual, looking inscrutable as always.

    "I vote to lynch Lady Bernardine Haighton-Chatworthy, mostly because her strident accusations of A Nother seem completely baseless."
     
    Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
     
    Time to stop dithering.
    I'm most suspicious of Whiskers, but I don't know that my suspicions are worth much.
    We at least know Lady Bernadine was nominated by an innocent.
     
    Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
     
    Lady B. it is.
     
    Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on :
     
    Tavish was tired, hot, and bored of all the toing and froing and people dying whom it seemed didn't deserve it.
    All he wanted to do was find something shiny which was worth a few bob, plus something for his mantlepiece at home, and then head off.
    He voted for Lady B as it seemed most everyone else wanted her gone. Okay, so she was a lady, but with all the menfolk who had been killed recently, perhaps it was time for some of that new-fangled "equality" nonsense to be applied.
     
    Posted by AristonAstuanax (# 10894) on :
     
    Alright. Let's get this over with.
    I don't trust the kitty one bit. What are you up to at night, Papagena? I know it's nothing good--you are a cat, after all--but do you have murderous intentions? Well. You'll still get your scraps as protection bribes, but I'm keeping my pistol close by at night.
    Andrew. So erratic. First one thing, then another. I think you're hiding something, but what that is, I can't be sure. And thus, I can't be sure I want you gone.
    Eli . . . meh, you can stay, I guess. I'm still not convinced you can't be a potential turncoat, but I'm also not convinced that you'd defect on us even if you were. So you get to live.
    Seth? Yes, you're quiet. Perhaps too quiet. But, of course, you're not protesting too much when someone randomly accuses you; I can't see suspicion in your silence.
    This leaves Lady B. Silent in the face of argument and strategizing, speaking only to protest her unproven innocence . . . while some here are questionable, looking both innocent and potentially guilty, you seem to be the only party whose behavior fits with an accused Guardian. Thus, I bid you a not-so-fond farewell.
     
    Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
     
    At 5-1 it hardly matters any more, Arsène trusts the sixth vote will be forthcoming. Always slightly inclined to stubbornness this time round he wants to stick by his own nominee and votes for Papagena.

    He thinks that her delaying of her vote in order "to hear the defenses of the others" is very very weak. She must know by now that at this stage it is too late for defenses. All she wants to do is vote late without telling us why.

    [Code tweak, iF]

    [ 04. November 2010, 09:51: Message edited by: Imaginary Friend ]
     
    Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
     
    Arsène meant Papagena. He is just too daft to use the preview button.
    He also sees that in the meantime it has indeed become irrelevant.
     
    Posted by CuppaT (# 10523) on :
     
    Well, I think it will have to be Lady Bernadine, then. Hope it is right.

    Papagena
     
    Posted by Smudgie (# 2716) on :
     
    Well, we are at that point where the Smudgeson vote will have no effect on the outcome. (She was delayed from voting earlier due to a long camel-train ride to a distant camp to meet a young relative returning from his half-term holidays!)

    A vote which makes no difference. I still believe Andrew Whisker to be in cahoots with the Guardians, but subsequent events have made me even more convinced that my fellow Mason is right to suspect Lady B. So I will add my vote to the majority. Lady B, farewell.

    Right, anyone for a nice cup of tea?
     
    Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Sylvander:
    At 5-1 it hardly matters any more, Arsène trusts the sixth vote will be forthcoming. .

    thanks to (almost) simultaneous posting, there were 7 votes for Lady B by the time you voted.
     
    Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on :
     
    "Dear Madeleine,
    By the time you get this, I will be no more. There is no doubt who is in charge of Camp Sarastro. Mr. Abrahams has
    taken over, and it is quite clear he has no interest in preserving innocent lives. He has even commandeered the services of some shadowy doctor for his sole personal protection, so he says. I fear the rest of the camp will soon be in the grip of such ancient evil forces, that all I can hope for now is a quick death. From now on, my dearest, I shall pray for you, from amongst the company of saints.
    With all my love,
    Lady Bernardine Haighton-Chatsworthy."
     
    Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
     
    The twist of Lady B's voting for herself wraps it up at

    Lady Bernadine (Banner Lady) 10 votes
    Papagena (CuppaT) 1 vote.

    Lady Bernadine is lynched. She was a citizen.

    Once she's posted a death scene, night will fall.
     
    Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Eli Abrahams:
    3. Be alert. (Camp Sarastro, as your English humour charmingly puts it, has a requirement for lerts)

    We’ll spot the Cultists best when their interests diverge from ours. When they do something irrational, foolish and inexplicable on any hypothesis but guilt, we’ll have them. Of course, this presupposes that it isn’t just a simple innocent being thoughtless. So don’t be thoughtless. Consider your actions carefully, Otherwise, you’ll get lynched for making a silly mistake, and it’ll be your own fault, but that won’t make the rest of us feel a great deal better.

    Only 55 piastre for that advice, and it would have saved her. What on earth was she thinking of, nominating a confirmed Mason?

    Still, it cuts the likely pool of suspects to Papagena and Arsène - are you going to admit to being the defector, M. Beauregard?

    For what it's worth (just in case I don't survive the night), Lt Madoc seems to me to be worth watching since Lady Bernardine was innocent. It was him who dropped the hint about the defector that made her press her accusation against me. Now that would have meant nothing if she had turned out to be guilty (because the Cultists can doubtless communicate by secret signs and private channels, so no Cultist needs to hint anything to another) but as she was innocent, it could be a clue. Not a compelling case, but worth noting.
     
    Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Eliab:
    (just in case I don't survive the night

    well, given that you have a good track record of nominating innocent people who then go on to be lynched, I'd say you're doing such a good job for the Cultists they'll probably let you live.
     
    Posted by CuppaT (# 10523) on :
     
    And what about the wacky Andrew? He's the one that ought to be top on the list. Anyone want to stop listening to Eli? Sorry BL/LB.
     
    Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
     
    Seth was no longer sure Eli was who he said he was
     
    Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
     
    a post out of character......
    <can someone point out where on this thread smudgie has said her character is also a mason? I might be missing it, but I've scrolled through and can't find anything to indicate that>
     
    Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by fletcher christian:
    Seth was no longer sure Eli was who he said he was

    Then you aren't thinking carefully enough. The innocent need to think carefully and act in their own best interests for the guilty to stand out. That was Lady Bernardine's mistake - acting in a way which made no sense at all.
    quote:
    can someone point out where on this thread smudgie has said her character is also a mason?
    Here.
     
    Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on :
     
    Lady Bernardine lay on her cot in the hot afternoon, drifting in and out of anxious sleep. The camp had become a hostile place, and her hand often strayed to the comfort of the pistol under her pillow.

    She was dreaming a terrible dream: that she was being forced to belly dance in a seedy opium den while leering faces made cruel jibes and hands pawed at her flimsy costume.

    She woke to find hands WERE pulling at her body, and tried to employ her pistol in defence. But it was snatched from her hand and she was swiftly knocked unconscious by it. Her large limp body was dragged from the tent and quickly strung up next to the flyblown remains of Professor McBride.

    Death was quick, but by the end of the afternoon the carcass of Lady B seemed to have doubled in size with the heat. The seams of her suit and underpinnings began to give way; and as dusk fell, a few last letters fluttered from her bosom to be carried away through the desert by the evening breeze.

    And had anyone with eyes keen enough to notice been watching, they would have seen a beetle drop from her skirts in the last light of day. Flexing it's beautiful iridescent wings, it scuttled off through the sand towards the tombs, buzzing as it went.
     
    Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
     
    Night falls.

    Please PM me with your night actions now.
     
    Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
     
    Seth thanked Eli for his kind advice. Clearly, clear thinking and careful reading was required. It was all getting a little fraught, but he felt he was now following the arguments more clearly. He settled down into his tent to set his mind at rest and his body too, hoping he would wake to see the dawn.
     
    Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
     
    Andrew was being restless on his bed. How could so many innocent people look guilty? And how could the killers look innocent? This was quite a puzzle.

    And then it occurred to him that it has to be demigod Wath's work. He is notorious for putting masks on people and altering the way they are perceived by others. The dark forces are at work here. Gods save us!
     
    Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
     
    Ahem. Go to sleep please people.
     
    Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on :
     
    Tavish couldn't sleep. He couldn't work out if it was greed or guilt that kept him awake, and led him to the entrance of the excavations.
    By the light of a flickering torch , he dug and dug, pent up frustrations at having to watch other innocent people being killed off by angry mobs and shadowy figures fuelling his crazed digging.
    His fingers grasped something hard. Hard and shiny.
    He pulled it free from the sand, some sort of cup or goblet, and lifted it up to get a better look in the torchlight.
    His eye caught the sparkle of a jewelled beetle and the reflection of a flicker of the torch. Or had it been a shadow passing in front of the light?
    he turned, and was met with nothing.
    nothing.
    nothing.
    but darkness.
     
    Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
     
    Tavish McCallum (Wet Kipper) has been murdered. He was a citizen.

    Nominations/defence are now open (probably until Tuesday evening).

    A quick reminder of who's still alive:

    Andrew (El Greco)
    Eli Abrahams (Eliab)
    Papagena (CuppaT)
    Lt Madoc (AristonAstuanax)
    Dai Mortal (Dafyd)
    Mr Seth (fletcher christian)
    Rose Autenrieth(Autenrieth Road)
    Arsène Beauregard(Sylvander)
    Hyacinth Smudgeson(Smudgie)

    (9 players)
     
    Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
     
    Why Tavish?

    Because he was a known innocent. That way, they could play on the uncertainty, and use it against the rest of us innocent citizens. By dividing and conquering, the mafia wants to turn us against each other.

    The way I read it, they want to get either me (a known innocent to me) or Eli (a known innocent to the masons) lynched, so that they can overcome us and take over the city, the sand, and the glittering yellow substance that has been cursed 7000 years ago.

    I bet you didn't know about the curse, did you? That's right, it says so on this piece of rock. See the hieroglyphics? "Whoever gets this gold will be thrice cursed, and their colon will violently descend through their rectum."

    It's all here.

    So, the ignorant and uneducated members of the mafia want to destroy us all only to get to their own destruction.

    But we must act before we let them destroy us. Although, I must say, that at this point having them reap what they sowed is very tempting.

    My list of suspects contains Rose, Papagena and Seth. I think there are at least two mobsters in there. I only hope we will be lucky this time, because our time, and the time of this beautiful, and boiling place, is running up!
     
    Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
     
    Arsène pondered the camp's bad luck. Another dead - the guardians never seem to strike at whoever the doctor (if there is one) protects.
    And to boot everybody in terms of lynchings seems to be following the lead of one talkative fool over another even more talkative one. Maybe this time round they'll follow the second one?

    Eli, you have proven an uncanny ability to nominate innocent people and talking everybody into lynching them. Not entirely your fault I admit, it is bound to happen and it is better than inaction.
    But you are about to do it again, by suspecting me. Twice I pointed out that I found your reasoning unconvincing (and others independently made the same observation). This time your argument is utter nonsense. Let me explain why. (Of course my certitude is helped by the fact that I know it is not just illogical but also wrong – the two are not synonymous, after all by sheer luck you might one day make an unconvincing case against a culprit).
    quote:
    Originally posted by Eliab:
    That said, I'm coming to the conclusion that […] Arsène might be the defector - he's too lazy even to count votes, but he's thought carefully about the details of the defector's abilities? Who's the one person who doesn't have a serious stake in who gets lynched in the first couple of days, but who definitely wants to know what the defector can do?

    Yep, I am lazy re counting of votes and stuff, at least as long as others are alive who will do it and others again who make tables of past behavioral patterns. That is why we are a team. Surely one does not get lynched for laziness [Biased]
    Let us assume I am the defector and were unclear about the rules (e.g. whether he retains his spying eye by night once he found a crook but decided to stick with the camp), why on earth would I ask in public?
    a) A public question might lead to an answer from the Gods. But a simple PM to the Divine Cat would surely give me one - after all she may like being foggy in public, but a player needs to have clarity about his role.
    b) A public answer would give everybody incl. Guardians the knowledge whereas it would be much more advantageous for the defector to have it to himself. So long as he hasn’t decided which side he is on he is not going to be very team-oriented, is he?
    So: I cannot see any reason why the defector would ask rule clarifications in public. This is so obvious that I am sure you have thought of it, too. I am led conclude that you consciously made a claim that does not add up.
    Let me look at your other arguments.
    quote:
    Originally posted by Eliab:
    Now if I'm right, and Arsène has already switched, he knows if Papagena is guilty or not. And in a vote like this one, if she is guilty he could nominate her for cover, or even with the intent of sacrificing her to prove his good faith with us.

    Nominating someone for cover is possible but very risky. And it only works once the player in question is lynched. It would be utter nonsense for the baddies to sacrifice a Guardian at this stage if the player in question has so far hardly come into the limelight of suspicion at all. I would not advocate suicide as a winning strategy (oops, did I give away something important to the Guardians here?).

    You really sound like a prosecutor for whom the witch is proven innocent if she drowns in the water and guilty if she floats. What you effectively say is: If player A nominates player B, irrespective of whether B turns out to be innocent or guilty player A can be guilty and should be lynched.
    A Guardian would talk like that.
    quote:
    Originally posted by Eliab:
    If he hasn't switched (or I'm wrong and he's a simple innocent) then he would nominate her regardless, because if either or both of Bernardine and Papagena are guilty, there's no reason to think that the last member of my suspect pool is too.

    If I remember correctly you made a list of no-lynching voters on day one and reduced it to a group of three suspects, me included. That makes and made sense to me, but do not forget that I voted by proxy before anything was discussed – I was in a feverish state in my tent, full of dreams of running about IRL. Do not overstretch conclusions from this no-lynching vote (but then we all guess on day one).
    quote:
    Originally posted by Eliab:
    So lynching Papagena wouldn't tell me much about Arsène.

    Uh? Your “logic” is weird [Eek!] I cannot follow it. Only if one follows your first unconvincing argument that I could nominate her for cover or even as a sacrifice would lynnching her not tell you much. As just explained I do not think such action would be good strategy for the Guardians.

    Summing up: Eli makes more unconvincing claims and suggestions. These are dangerous for the camp. Should I nominate him for lynching? Yep, I could guess he does so for sinister motives, i.e. he is a) Guardian or b) defector. But

    a) Presupposes that he and Smudgeson both impersonate a mason AND the real masons shut up about it. Unthinkable.

    b) Presupposes

    b 1: that there is a defector – which we don’t know, and

    b 2: That mason and defector can go together. As I said before this would be a silly design. I therefore stick by my decision to discard the notion.

    So I think Eli is not guilty, only illogical. Do not assume a conspiracy where simple human mistakes suffice to explain (I think Churchill said this more elegantly). And of course he suggested early on that Tavish (Wet Kipper) was innocent, so he got that one right.

    Who might be guilty then?
    Does Tavish’s death tell us something? He spoke little and I can’t see much info in it (others might read more carefully). We know that his brain hurt, he was after the lassies and did not have a Scottish accent.
    With nothing new emerging I repeat that I am suspicious of Papagena. For the same reasons I gave before.
    Unfortunately Eli suspects or suspected her, too, which makes her look a bit more innocent again.
     
    Posted by Smudgie (# 2716) on :
     
    Miss Smudgeson curses herself for having disregarded her own gut instincts (surely a woman of her standing should not admit to having such things) and followed the trend in voting for Lady B, though she had to admit that the poor old lady who suffered such an undignified death had indeed acted extremely suspiciously. Still, one should not condemn someone purely because their brain was addled. No, she should have stuck with her instinct and voted for Andrew Whisker. She had her suspicions about several of the camp - one other in particular - but knowing two people to be innocent did help her deliberations considerably.
     
    Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Smudgie:
    She had her suspicions about several of the camp - one other in particular - but knowing two people to be innocent did help her deliberations considerably.

    Care to share those suspicions with the rest of us? This will be especially useful if you manage to murder yet another innocent. i.e. me.
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by El Greco:


    My list of suspects contains Rose, Papagena and Seth. I think there are at least two mobsters in there.

    Why me? Why Seth? Why do you think at least two of us three are Guardians? I agree that Papagena by her quietness is suspicious.
     
    Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
    Why me? Why Seth? Why do you think at least two of us three are Guardians? I agree that Papagena by her quietness is suspicious.

    That's what the Oracle said. R, S, P. But I didn't hear well one letter, so I got at least two right.

    What, you don't like my reason for thinking you are suspicious? Well, it's as good a reason as any other. Being a member of the mafia is not an issue of logic and argumentation. If you think it is, just take a look at all those innocent we lynched, thinking we were following reasonable arguments against them.

    The arguments that have been made, or the ones that can be made, for that matter, might all be plausible, but there is no logic behind them dictating they are actually true.

    In times of distress, such as these, you might choose to follow words that sound nice to the ear, but lack the irrefutable logic that dictates what's true and what's not, but I choose to pay heed to the dreadful words of the Oracle. And She has spoken. R, S, and P, or something like that!

    [ 06. November 2010, 13:25: Message edited by: El Greco ]
     
    Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
     
    Arsène had been for a long run along the Rhi..., the Nile [Hot and Hormonal] . All the time an intriguing wee tune was running along in his otherwise empty head ...

    Pa! Pa! Pa! Pa!
    Pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-paaaaaaa!
    Pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-paaaaaaa!
    Pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pagena!!

    When he was under the shower he let the tune flow from his head to his lips. The camp shuddered.
     
    Posted by CuppaT (# 10523) on :
     
    Y'all keep saying that I am quiet, but if you look, you will find that I speak just as much as most. Only a few campers talk more frequently than I, but many use a lot more words, i.e. longer posts. To be clueless is not a crime. To try to watch everyone, and get lost now and then as to where we are in the process, does not mean I am a murderous cat, merely a fairly simple minded citizen cat of the desert. I do agree that unless the Masons have lied about who they are, there is not much logic in this particular scenario, just blind unluck.
     
    Posted by AristonAstuanax (# 10894) on :
     
    It's like this, Cat. You may be raising a paw or cocking an ear, but saying that you're paying attention doesn't add to the discussion or aid us in catching our cultists; simply listening, though, is what any good infiltrator would do. If I were a Guardian, my first objective in discussion would be to gather as much information as possible about my enemy's plans, then, if at all possible, keep from aiding them with any useful suggestions. At no time should I give advice so bad it drew the ire of my fellows down on my head; were Eli not a Mason, I'm sure we would have lynched him by now, just to be rid of his bad advice!
    Come to think of it, that may not be a bad idea. Why didn't I think of it earlier, when we didn't need him and his foolish tongue so badly for the sake of our survival?
     
    Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
     
    Some important points:

    First - it wasn't a mistake to lynch Lady Bernardine. Or, rather, it wasn't our mistake. She had nominated a known innocent. Not merely someone who turned out to be innocent, but someone who was obviously innocent. If we weren't going to react to that, what would we react to?

    The Name alone knows why she did it. She seemed pretty astute to me. But she did. She did something that only made sense if she was guilty, and we did exactly the right thing on the evidence. Unfortunately, her bad judgement has cost us a day and two lives.

    Second, I was right about Tavish. Which means that my analysis of the first day's votes looks sound.

    Third, if we have three cultists and a defector, then (unless we are lucky with a veteren or a doctor) we MUST get it right today.


    My best guess at this point is Lt Madoc. Two reasons: he dropped a subtle hint to Lady Bernardine that encouraged her in her self destructive mistake, and he nominated Rose Autenrieth on the first day. Now that was a supposed to be a pure guess - but why, for a pure guess, would anyone smart (and Madoc is smart) pick Rose? If she's innocent (as, on the odds, she probably was for all we then knew), she's an asset, because she's a thinker. True, she's also very very hard to read, and the prospect of her being a cultist scares me a lot, but I'd take the chance of having her mind on our side rather than risk killing her off on spec.

    I'd also bet (at good odds) a (modest) amount on Arsène being the defector, if there is one.

    If there's one more space for the guilty, then it's a coin toss between Andrew Whisker and Papagena. Both have behaved oddly. Deliberately so. Which makes me think that they are trying for some reaction to achieve something. Thus they are either guilty, or (and this is the kicker) they are the doctor and trying to arouse just enough suspicion that the cultists leave them alone, but not so much as to be lynched.

    Seth's my outside chance at the moment, if any of those are wrong.

    So at this point I'd lynch Madoc. But I'm not going to risk splitting the vote. Whisker or Papagena would be better than no one. If anyone is inclined to share that suspicion, I'll nominate and vote, but not if it'll just put another name up and risk a hung vote.
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    Rose turned as pink as her name from Eli's unexpected praise.  

    I'm not inclined to suspect Lt. Madoc.  Though my principle of not suspecting those who reason the most could be faulty.   (However, I haven't really grappled with the possibility of a defector.)  

    I suspect Dai Mortal, as someone who has been flying under the radar (to coin a phrase about two as-yet-uninvented technologies).  He's someone who by personality I would expect to be in there reasoning it out with the rest of us, but instead he's been quietly inconspicuous.  I've suspected him from the first round.

    Papagena I could imagine being by nature a watcher, and hence innocent, (but I could also imagine her as a Guardian taking us all in with her innocent "I've had nothing to say yet" act).

    Andrew Whisker I think enjoys being erratic, which makes it very hard to decide if he's innocent or guilty!

    Like Eli, I'd like to hear others' thoughts on my suspicions before making the plunge of a nomination.

    [ 07. November 2010, 01:10: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
    ...Lt. Madoc.  ... (However, I haven't really grappled with the possibility of a defector.)

    Oops, it's Arsene whom Eliab suspects of being the defector, not Madoc.

    FWIW, I don't find Madoc's nomination of me suspicious. I was the most recent person to have spoken when he made his day 1 nomination, so since the nominations were going to be pretty random, why not pick the first person to come to mind?
     
    Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
    I suspect Dai Mortal, as someone who has been flying under the radar.  He's someone who by personality I would expect to be in there reasoning it out with the rest of us, but instead he's been quietly inconspicuous.

    I think that's a complement of sorts.
    My reasoning hasn't been up to much, and so I've been disinclined to share it with the rest of the group. Example: I deduced from the first round that Eli wasn't a mason - if he were a mason I thought he'd have nominated somebody. I then deduced that if Eli was a mason, the reason he didn't nominate someone must be that either Madoc or Rose was a mason. Wrong again. Given that I'm wrong about the way the masons behave, I'm not entirely confident in my reasoning about the guardians.
    BTW - out of curiosity, Eli, why didn't you nominate someone in the first round?

    In so far as my reasoning is worth anything I think our current course is as good as we're going to get.
    We can group people into four groups:

    Eli and Smudgeson: Known innocents.
    O) Eli's reasoning is usually sound. I think the lesson to learn from lynching Lady Bernadine is that Eli is too likely to think people guilty if they've disagreed with him or accused him. But otherwise I'd rely on his brains.
    A) Madoc and Rose: at most one of these is guilty.
    For a guardian to nominate another guardian in the first round is foolish, especially given that there were only two nominations and it could easily have resulted in a guardian being knocked out early on.
    B) Seth, Whiskers (and Dai): any or all or none of us could be guardians. Whiskers is a bit of a special case. I'm suspicious of him, but I don't know what to make of that.
    C) Papagena and Beauregarde: it's almost certain(*) that at least one of these is a mason and possibly both. We'd already announced our intention to investigate group C when Beauregarde accused Papagena. One of them would almost certainly be lynched anyway; under those circumstances it would be worth trying the take-out nomination.
    So our chance of getting a mason by voting for Papagena or Beauregarde is better than 1/2. (11/17 to be precise.)
    I certainly wouldn't lynch Madoc or Rose at this point - the chance of each individually being a guardian in group A is less than 1/2. (Actually, 7/17.)

    Health warning: if I can't predict what someone as talkative as Eli will do as a mason, my reasoning about what someone quieter will do as a guardians may not be up to much.

    (*) Reasons: the guardians would probably have split their vote to avoid appearing as a block. It's slightly more likely that an odd one out would vote late - and we know neither Haji nor Tavish were guardians, so we didn't have two votes for lynching and then one for no lynching. Also, the guardians killed someone who voted for lynching in the first round. Therefore, when they did so they weren't keeping people who'd voted the same way as them around as cover. And so at least one and possibly two must have voted differently from Herrick.
     
    Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
     
    quote:
    So our chance of getting a mason by voting for Papagena or Beauregarde is better than 1/2. (11/17 to be precise.)
    I certainly wouldn't lynch Madoc or Rose at this point - the chance of each individually being a guardian in group A is less than 1/2. (Actually, 7/17.)

    Just realised: these numbers should be 14/23 and 7/23.

    [ 07. November 2010, 09:29: Message edited by: Dafyd ]
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    In your group C, surely you meant "guardian" and not "mason"?

    How did you come up with your numerical probabilities?

    [ 07. November 2010, 11:37: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
     
    Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Eliab:
    First - it wasn't a mistake to lynch Lady Bernardine. She had nominated a known innocent. Not merely someone who turned out to be innocent, but someone who was obviously innocent. If we weren't going to react to that, what would we react to?

    Nonsense.
    Nominating a known innocent is such silly thing to do that it is inconceivable a group of Guardians would come up with the idea. Much more likely that an individual was not paying attention or thinking in roundabout ways.

    quote:
    Originally posted by Eliab:
    Some important points:
    Second, I was right about Tavish. Which means that my analysis of the first day's votes looks sound.

    Seems to me deducing a lot from the one occasion he got it right (as opposed to the many more where he got it wrong) - at a point when most of our assumptions were guesses.
    Last time round Eli suspected Papagena as his number two - and now he puts forward yet another name. If it wasn't for the mason thingy I'd have nominated him three times over. With all the harm he has been inflicting we might have been better off lynching him even as a known mason.

    quote:
    Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
    Rose turned as pink as her name from Eli's unexpected praise.

    Good grief! Don't tell me you'll fall for that kind of flattery [Snore] . Check Eli's reasoning, not your image in the mirror, please!
    But if it helps: you are stunningly beautiful, mind-boggingly intelligent and the greatest conversationist since the invention of the tongue [Smile] You really are! Unfortunately this is all irrelevant in assessing the accusations on the table.
     
    Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
    In your group C, surely you meant "guardian" and not "mason"?

    oops, yes. I was possibly confusing the guardians with a criminal organisation based in the Mediterranean (Sicily) that also starts with 'ma'.

    quote:
    How did you come up with your numerical probabilities?
    The number of possibilities in which there are:
    i) Two guardians in C; one in B or A: 1*5= 5.
    ii) One guardian in C; one in B, one in A: 2*3*2 = 12
    iii) One in C; two in B: 2*3= 6
    Total: 5 + 12 + 6 = 23.
    Total possibilities in which any given member of C is a guardian: 5 from i) + 6 from ii) + 3 from iii) = 14 (out of 23).
    Total in which any given member of A is a guardian: 1 + 6 + 0 = 7 (out of 23)
    (And for completeness, total for any given member of B = 1 + 4 + 4 = 9.)
    I hope that's enough detail to work out the rest?

    The above calculations don't take into account my knowledge that I'm innocent, because I'm the only non-guardian that can be sure of that. For anyone who knows that they're innocent, it shifts the probabilities a little but not by a significant amount.
    This all assumes that at least one guardian voted for no lynching in the first round, but I think we've good reason to believe that at least one guardian would have.
     
    Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
     
    oh yeah, thats clear as mud!
     
    Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
     
    I nominate Seth. After all, his namesake is supposed to be evil incarnate.

    [ 08. November 2010, 11:14: Message edited by: El Greco ]
     
    Posted by CuppaT (# 10523) on :
     
    Seth who? In the Bible Seth was a good little boy.

    And after what's-his-name just said about not splitting the vote at this point, too! You make yourself all the more suspicious.
     
    Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
     
    Bible? Bible? BIBLE??? This is children's stories compared to the True Religion. May the Gods instill the knowledge of sun in your minds, because we are all going to be doomed. The signs are gloomy.
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    Papagena, that's an interesting comment, given that the vote that might be split would be the one that might lynch you. Is that the true mark of an innocent speaking? Could be.

    I've been thinking this weekend that Seth is the one camp resident who truly hadn't appeared on my radar at all yet, which by my principles leads me to wonder if he is a Guardian, seeking to avoid notice.

    [ 08. November 2010, 13:59: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
     
    Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
     
    quote:

    Seth who? In the Bible Seth was a good little boy.

    Exactly.
    My nominations record speaks for itself. I've trusted Eli (albeit cautiously), but he's certainly led us down a few dead ends of late (if you'll pardon the pun). I've tried to be fairly reasonable about my choices and I've even changed my mind on Hayacinth once it became clear to me that she was a mason; which pretty much proves I'm an innocent (I think).
     
    Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
     
    A so-called *spit* Guardian *spit* could do the same to avoid suspicion while helping get innocent people lynched.

    Behold! The ugly face of the beast!

    [ 08. November 2010, 14:26: Message edited by: El Greco ]
     
    Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
     
    Granted there is a slight resemblance, but not such a tiny waist. But I am innocent. A man cannot be judged on the fact he is ugly!
     
    Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
     
    Let me recap the reasons Eli gave to support our course so far, since some people seem to be confused about them.

    We voted for McBride not because we thought that he was guilty, but because we thought we would learn something either way. We did learn that both Haji and McCallum were innocent. The guardians targeted them both - but that means that they didn't target the doctor and they've only targeted one of the three masons. We still know that there are two innocents. That's quite a strong advantage to have.
    We voted for Lady Bernadine because she was in what I called group C earlier - a group that we have strong reason to believe has at least one guardian in it. It maybe that we ought to have gone for Beauregarde or Papagena rather than Bernadine on the evidence. I'm not sure. However, it makes it more likely that we'll catch a guardian this turn.

    The question is then whether to go for Beauregarde or Papagena first. At the moment, only Papagena's been nominated, by Beauregarde himself. I'm not sure that we should be making the decision solely on the judgement of one of the targets. Does anyone else have an opinion as to which one seems more suspicious? I'd be particularly interested in Smudgeson's opinion; we know Smudgeson's not guilty and Beauregarde hasn't been criticising her.
     
    Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
     
    It is Beauregard, hear, not Beauregarde! [Mad]
    I refuse to be lynched under a false name!
     
    Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
     
    OK, it's Bureaucrat, not Avant-garde. Noted. What do you mean I misheard again?

    [ 08. November 2010, 15:46: Message edited by: El Greco ]
     
    Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
     
    My sincere apologies to M. Beauregard.
     
    Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
     
    Andrew had another vision. He was in the Throne Room again, but this time it was empty. And suddenly a voice spoke from the Great Throne That Sparkles Every 7777 Years.

    "Come to me..." the dreadful voice whispered.

    "Come to me..."

    [ 08. November 2010, 19:18: Message edited by: El Greco ]
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    It was not because of his flattery that Rose thought Beauregard to be a Citizen, but because of his reasoning.

    I'm inclined to lynch Andrew Whisker. If he's guilty that will be good, plus it will suggest that Seth is innocent. If he's innocent then it will leave the way open to still suspect Seth on a later round.

    (crossposted. Of course, if we lynch Whisker we may never find out what his vision of the throne room means.)

    [ 08. November 2010, 19:26: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
     
    Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
    I'm inclined to lynch Andrew Whisker. If he's guilty that will be good, plus it will suggest that Seth is innocent. If he's innocent then it will leave the way open to still suspect Seth on a later round.

    How naive of you to assume life will continue if you lynch the high-priest of the Great Ra. How naive... [Disappointed]

    [ETA:] Last time a high priest of the Great One was brutally murdered by the people, Noah was finishing his arc. Just so that you know. It's in every serious textbook of egyptology...

    [ 08. November 2010, 19:31: Message edited by: El Greco ]
     
    Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
    It was not because of his flattery that Rose thought Beauregard to be a Citizen, but because of his reasoning.

    Ah.
    Aaaah! [Smile] I like gals with a sense of humour.
    May I take the opportunity to declare that when I said your beauty, intelligence and eloquence were irrelevant for assessing guilt, I ommitted to say that they were by no means wasted on one appreciative French soul ... [Overused]
    Would Mademoiselle be free for a starlight walk in the dunes this evening? I think there are some behind the camp to this side. And that. And that. And that side, too, it would seem. You choose.
     
    Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Sylvander:
    I think there are some behind the camp to this side. And that. And that. And that side, too, it would seem. You choose.

    Hm.... Four sides... This sounds like a secret message.

    Now, four sides isn't a masonic symbol. Could it be...? Hm... Yes. I'm sure I have a scroll that speaks about it somewhere. Now, where did I put it?
     
    Posted by AristonAstuanax (# 10894) on :
     
    At this rate, it seems that everyone but Miss Smudgeson has been thought suspicious, if not quite worthy of the firing squad. Which brings up two questions:
    1. Miss Smudgeson, I think you're up to something. You may not be in cahoots with evil, murdering, and generally despicable cultists, but I would like to know just what you put in your "special house blend" tea. I'd also like another pot of it, to share with Miss Rose, if you would please. Now that I'm quite awake and up to proper military spec, I think I might just be able to properly apologize to her for my untoward behavior earlier.
    As a side note, proper apologies do not preclude the use of imprisonment against formerly tolerated enemies of His Majesty who bother young graduate students. There is supposedly a reason why the regiment is stationed here, beyond the simple inaction of my superior officers.
    Really now. So many brave soldiers died in Flanders, but somehow you made it out alive?
    2. Is anyone actually going to nominate anyone else, rather than simply casting aspersions? I see that Papagena, Andrew Whiskers and Mr. Seth have all been formally accused; that sounds like a perfectly sound slate to me. Any more, and we risk splitting the vote; any less, and we might end up with a slate without a cultist. At this point, my friends (and I address only you), we cannot afford another misstep, especially if there is a defector in our midst. If another innocent dies at our hands, it will only be luck or errors committed by the Guardians that might save us; right now, I am disinclined to hope that either might work out in our favor.
     
    Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
     
    Midday. Eli Abrahams sits in his tent, still thinking about Lady Bernadine. His lunch – a double helping of whatthefuck with whatthefuck sauce – grows cold as he twirls his fork distractedly. What perplexes the wily Jew is not being wrong. No one can make money in this country of intrigue by being afraid to make mistakes. What baffles and irritates is that he cannot see why it was wrong. What in the name of the Holy One of Israel was she thinking of? And why did no one see it?

    Eli shakes his head sadly. Nine residents. Five must be innocent. Two of those are known. Are there three cultists or four? If three, then one mistake is affordable. But if there are four, then a wrong guess today would be fatal. Now is not the time to worry about outside chances. There is no point wondering if those people who look innocent have simply fooled him. If they have, then they win. Concentrate on those who look suspicious. Play the best chance. But which one?

     
    Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by AristonAstuanax:
    At this point, my friends, we cannot afford another misstep, especially if there is a defector in our midst.

    We can afford one. We can't afford two. (Unless there are four mafia members or three mafia members and a defector, but if that's the case we've barely got a hope anyway - so let's assume it isn't so.)
    As much as Whiskers is acting suspiciously, I think he may well just be someone who acts suspiciously. I don't think going after Whiskers at this stage would be playing the odds. Nobody else seems to think that Beauregard is suspicious enough to nominate. I don't think Papagena's silence is great grounds for suspicion myself, but of the three nominees I think she's our best chance. And then if it's not her, then Beauregard.
    Dai Mortal wandered off wondering whether he could really just have advocated something as medieval as lynching the cat.

    OoC: I'm moving house from Thursday. There may be some time over the weekend when I don't have an internet connection. If I start being very quiet, that's why.
     
    Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
     
    At the moment, I know that Hyacinth and I are innocent, and I'm prepared to trust Dai and Rose. The last two on the basis that they have been more helpful and analytical than they need to be to remain inconspicuous, and I can find no inconsistency in their actions. One or other of them might have fooled me - if so, well done - but I think all of the remaining five are more likely to be guilty.

    If, as I fear, four of those five are enemies, then we can't afford to split the innocent vote. I'd vote to lynch any but Seth at this point, rather than risk division.

    I can see no one sharing my suspicions of Lt Madoc. So there's no point nominating him. But he needs very careful watching. He's acting just as I would expect him to if he were guilty.

    Dai, if you suspect Arsène Beauregard, then I'd vote for him if Miss Smudgeson and Ms Autenrieth concur. Otherwise, Papagena, unless Whisker is the lead candidate. But we can't vote for him unless someone nominates him, so I will.


    Anyone whose been nominated - make sure you put your case now. Don't surprise us once the voting has started. Even one wasted innocent vote might well doom us.
     
    Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
     
    People of the sand!

    You should think deeply before you cast your vote.

    Take a look at the history of Eli's speeches. Think about it. You will find out what you should do. Since he nominates Arsène Beauregard, the prudent thing to do is to say that Arsène is most definitely innocent. So, don't vote for him! And since Eli doesn't think I'm guilty, I must be a criminal mastermind. Based on Eli's record you'd better vote against me. I think that's the safest choice!

    Either that, or Seth. Eli doesn't think Seth is suspicious. That's suspicious enough to me.
     
    Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
     
    Nominations over, the polls are now open.

    You may vote for:


    Five votes are required for a lynching.
     
    Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
     
    Seth couldn't quite understand Whisker's frankly mad request. If he was innocent, then why was he asking people to vote to lynch him? That didn't make any sense; but then little Whisker's said made much sense of late! Why would someone who claimed to be an innocent put themselves in harms way at such an important juncture in the game? [Paranoid]
     
    Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
     
    Well, if Eli's prepared to back me up, I'll vote for Arsene Beauregard. It's him or Papagena, and I like cats.
     
    Posted by CuppaT (# 10523) on :
     
    Maroow. Happily complying, the black cat votes for the false priest Andrew.
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    Rose shakes sand out of her shoes, takes a sip of tea, and votes to lynch Andrew Whisker (El Greco).
     
    Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
     
    Oh, surprise, a very very late nomination by the one player who always advocates how important it is to get a lynching done!
    Eli does not even try to pretend he can substantiate his suspicion of me and point at a single inconsistency in my reasonings. Simple, there are none. It is an easy game to play when you are innocent.
    Ah well. Seeing the votes up to now it looks like Eli's simple see-through tactics might work - the vote will be split and no lynching will happen.
    Papagena
     
    Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
     
    Right - Beauregard has just tried to split the vote. Assuming Papagena is guilty, if any two of Madoc, Seth and Andrew are guilty*, we can't get her. And if he believed his nonsense about me trying to hang the vote, he'd know that by voting for a new nominee, he'd just made it more likely that I'd succeed. His vote is plainly a destructive one.

    That's good enough for me. I think Arsene is guilty.

    The trouble is, if any two of Madoc, Seth or Andrew are guilty, they can save him. Neither Hyacinth or I should vote until they have done so.

    Of course, that probably means Andrew is guilty, too, because Arsene's actions do make sense as an attempt to shield him.

    So Andrew should vote first (since he's not going to vote for himself). If he's prepared to vote for Arsene (or Papagena), we then have options and can see how the two remaining suspects vote. And the two known innocents should then agree on who we should lynch.

    [*editted to add - if Arsene was innocent I think two of them must be guilty]

    [ 10. November 2010, 00:07: Message edited by: Eliab ]
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    OK, Eli, you've convinced me, Arsene looks guilty as hell. But his vote only makes sense if Andrew is also guilty. To lynch Andrew, you just need one of Seth or Madoc to vote with you and Miss Smudgeson. But if you hold out to see if you can get two votes out of Seth/Madoc/Andrew for Arsene or Papagena, you give the Guardians (if two out of those three are Guardians) the chance to gang up and ensure the lynching of a potentially innocent Papagena. So I think you should go ahead and vote to lynch Andrew.

    I'm not saying this because I voted for Andrew, but because it's what makes sense to me given the votes so far and the potential votes still available. At this point it looks to me like getting either Arsene or Andrew is equally good.
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    That is, getting either Arsene or Andrew would be an equally good outcome. But I think one of those (Andrew) Is a more likely achievable goal.
     
    Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
     
    I mostly agree, Rose, but it's Andrew's vote that I want to see: if he is guilty, and either Seth or Madoc do not believe that (or pretend not to believe it) I don't want his vote coming in as an 'unexpected' spoiler. Let's see what he does. Seth and Madoc are both smart enough to count the votes: if either puts a suspect in the clear, we learn something.

    I imagine that Hyacinth is going to vote for Andrew if he's lynchable and no one else is. It'll do no harm to have another option, though. A guilty coalition of all three of Andrew, Seth and Madoc could always hang this vote, but to do that, all three need to be blatant about it (if Andrew votes first). I don't think they'll do that - because we might get lucky with the doctor's aid tonight and then we'll have them. So I don't want to give them the opportunity (if they are all guilty) to spoil the vote by anything other than out-and-out combined obstruction.

    Let's see Andrew's vote. Then the others. Then the Masons.
     
    Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
     
    Lest others fall for Eli:
    I have by no means split the vote but simply voted for whom I nominated - knowing that there are sufficient votes out there to lynch her. We still can achieve this.

    I think it is obvious that it's Eli who tries to split the vote by making a fourth(!) nomination at the last minute. On a day with only nine people standing this number of nominees is hugely increasing the likelihood of a hung vote and save Papagena.

    This late nomination from someone who always stressed how important it is to lynch and gain information rather than be inactive?!
    From someone who only yesterday claimed to suspect Papagena as suspect number 2 himself (we lynched his innocent nominee Lady B. instead)?
    But who does not now want to vote for Papagena when he has the chance? Who made no attempt to explain this inconsistency? Who has put forward two people for lynching who turned out to be innocent?

    Ok, I'd obviously be willing to die (I am an ordinary citizen, so we could strike at more harmful targets like the doctor) if the information gained would make my team win.

    But with so few people left and all Guardians still alive lynching me will probably lose the game for the citizen's camp next day.
    There may be a stroke of luck with the doctor protecting the right citizen.

    In that lucky case: If I die you can still benefit from the information gained by my death and lynch Eli tomorrow and Papagena the following day.

    Better to lynch Papagena today and Eli tomorrow.
    It is up to the last voters.

    PS: I don't know how to link to individual posts. So here is where Eli said he was suspicious of Papagena (on page 5):

    # Papagena, (CuppaT), nominated by Arsène Beauregard (Sylvander)
    I'm pretty suspicious of Papagena, ...
     
    Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
     
    quote:

    That's good enough for me. I think Arsene is guilty.

    The trouble is, if any two of Madoc, Seth or Andrew are guilty, they can save him. Neither Hyacinth or I should vote until they have done so.


    Right, this is where it starts to get dangerously close to the line.If we vote no lynching, we effectively give this round to the guardians, who will no doubt kill someone else during the night. I can't see any reasons really why Arsene or Papagena is guilty. On the other hand, Eli has been so wrong in the past, that he has to get at least one right....doesn't he? Still, I'm nervous.

    Arsene hasn't really featured on my radar I must admit, and I think it's daft to say Papagena is guilty based on her silent watching. I don't like the fact that Eli is implying that if I don't vote with him then I increase my guilt. Knowing I am innocent therefore, I'm not going to play into that game, but I do follow that the two masons should hold out until the votes are cast.

    I can't figure out if Whiskers is up to something odd, or just pretending to be odd. Why be deliberately obscure if you are innocent? He's definitely playing a game and I'm left wondering if he is trying to find the defector and is a guardian himself. I can't know for certain, but I just find Whiskers activity really suspicious. I vote to lynch Whiskers

    [ 10. November 2010, 08:22: Message edited by: fletcher christian ]
     
    Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
     
    quote:

    Any of the following may be in play

    Could this be the first mafia game with no mafia, leaving us all to kill each other? [Ultra confused]
     
    Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by fletcher christian:
    Eli has been so wrong in the past, that he has to get at least one right....doesn't he?

    If his intentions were good his guesses like anybody's would hit the target sooner or later, that is true. But they are not guesses. [Frown]

    quote:
    Originally posted by fletcher christian:
    I think it's daft to say Papagena is guilty based on her silent watching.

    Admittedly it was a relatively weak argument based on past experience. For want of any better...
    What increased my initial suspicion is that Eli first pretends to suspect her and then inexplicably drops this to protect her instead.

    The only person I am sure is guilty is Eli at this stage. [As mason-defector. He is either that or mad].

    No mafia and slow mutual suicide instead? Now that sounds like a party! Maybe 'twas the Great Cat that killed people during the night. We are just cute little mice in her paws, doomed!

    [ 10. November 2010, 08:43: Message edited by: Sylvander ]
     
    Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
     
    Which means we can get Papagena or Arsene only if all four people still to vote agree.

    The known innocents can only ensure the lynching of Whisker. So if I vote now, I have to vote for him, and then Madoc's vote won't matter (and neither will Andrew's, as he will be dead).

    So I'm now definitely going to wait. So should Miss Smudgeson. Let's see which way the last two jump.
     
    Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
     
    I vote for Papagena. I still think Rose and Seth are guilty though. And their voting in this round confirms my suspicions.

    ETA: Is this a false stick? I'm not a false priest. Papagena, you made baby Ra cry. So, there. Die, godless heretic!

    [ 10. November 2010, 11:09: Message edited by: El Greco ]
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    Arsene nominated Papagena last round at the very last minute, rendering his moaning about Eli's last-minute nomination this round a bit suspect.

    On the other hand, Arsene is consistent, having voted against Papagena both last round and this round. So his defense that he was just voting for his nominee might hold water.

    On the third hand, when Arsene voted, there were only five votes outstanding after him, meaning that he had to garner 4 out of those 5 if Papagena was actually to be lynched. And we want to avoid lynching Papagena if she's actually innocent. So when Arsene voted, he was in effect proposing (or hoping) that out of Seth/Madoc/Andrew/Eli/Smudgeson, only one was a Guardian or Defector. Which means he was in effect proposing/hoping that at least one of either Dai Mortal or me is a Guardian or Defector. If he truly believes there is a Defector, then he's proposing/hoping that both Dai Mortal and me are Guardians or Defectors (along with Papagena).

    I know that I'm a Citizen. So either there is no Defector, or Arsene is wrong at least in part about who the guilty are. On the other hand, being wrong in part does not rule out also being right in part. Which could pretty much describe any of us (partly wrong, partly right).

    Bah, I thought this reasoning would lead me to some deep insight, but no such luck.

    Rose wondered if she dared ask Madoc to take another walk around the dunes/dunes/dunes/dunes again, or if she'd had enough of sand in her shoes.
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    Fresh air never hurt anyone, plus there were some things she wanted to be sure Madoc knew. She'd risk promenading with a possible Guardian in order to prevent him from claiming ignorance later.

    Lieutenant Madoc, note the votes so far.

    Arsene Beauregard, 1 vote. He can't be lynched this round. A vote for him is in effect a vote to lynch Andrew Whisker.

    Andrew Whisker, 3 votes. A vote for him means that he's the only one who can be lynched, and presumably will then be lynched since our two Masons will I expect go for a lynching rather than no lynching.

    Papagena, 2 votes. A vote for the kitty cat leaves the final decision of who to lynch (Whisker the man, or the whiskered beastie) up to the two Masons.

    Seth, no votes. He also can't be lynched, and a vote for him is in effect a vote to lynch Andrew Whisker.

    Mission accomplished, Rose indicated that they should turn back to the tea tent. The Lieutenant escorted her to the door, uh, flap, then bowed and withdrew. Inside, everyone who had voted so far was sitting as far from each other as possible, glowering in suspicion. Rose gingerly took a seat between Mr Seth and the cat, and waved for a cup of tea.
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    No tea was forthcoming. Miss Smudgeson seemed to be away often, presumably carrying out important Masonic rituals, rather than showing her cheery face behind the tea counter. Rose took advantage of the quiet in the tent to commit the faux pas of triple-posting.

    quote:
    Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
    I know that I'm a Citizen. So either there is no Defector, or Arsene is wrong at least in part about who the guilty are.

    Or Arsene is guilty, and probably seeking to protect a guilty Andrew. (Any other possibilities for Arsene?)
     
    Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
    Or Arsene is guilty, and probably seeking to protect a guilty Andrew. (Any other possibilities for Arsene?)

    He genuinely doesn't trust me. It seems bizarre, because if we start lynching people on the basis of things like the masonic defector fantasy, we are effectively bargaining blind refusing to trust anything but unobtainable certitude.

    But it must be possible because Lady Bernardine nominated me even after I'd claimed to be a mason, and even after she knew that there must have been two masons who would have exposed a false claim. And, to my astonishment, she was innocent.

    If that's the case, though, I can't see why he's blowing so much smoke in my direction, and still (incredibly) agreeing with me. Because I'd said, coming into this vote, that while I suspected Madoc and Beauregard, if it came down to a coin-toss between Whisker and Papagena, I'd pick Papagena*. And Papagena is Arsene's nominee, and he voted for her when (as you say) it made little sense to do so unless he was pretty sure about it.


    We can over-analyse, but it seems to me that we have to lynch people who look guilty. Arsene looks guilty. We have no defence against innocents who act as if they were cultists because they haven't thought things through, or counted the votes, or listened to who nominated whom and why. That's why "Be Alert" was in my guidance notes. It's important. Unless every innocent acts rationally, it is impossible to distinguish thoughtlessness from enemy action. Because anyone, no matter how suspicious their behaviour, might be innocent if we posit enough stupidity.

    [*edited to say - I'm not saying now whether I still would - I want to see what Madoc does now)

    [ 10. November 2010, 15:05: Message edited by: Eliab ]
     
    Posted by CuppaT (# 10523) on :
     
    I had been assuming that Arsene was merely a bothersome fly buzzing around me, ignoring everyone else. It seems to me now, though, that a logical explanation is that he is the defector, and had earlier inspected me and found me to be a citizen, and that now he has inspected a Guardian and has gone over, going after the one person whom he knows to be a safe one to get. His new cronies will (seemingly) reluctantly agree with him. That doesn't mean that we shouldn't stop Andrew this time. We can get Arse next time around.

    I think BL just made a mistake by nominating a Mason. That early on some of us didn't fully understand the roles as much as we do when it is being played out. We still have the vigilante and the veteran to worry about, too. Look out for who wants a hung vote because that may be the vigilante wanting to get a chance to play his role.
     
    Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by CuppaT:
    I think BL just made a mistake by nominating a Mason. That early on some of us didn't fully understand the roles as much as we do when it is being played out. We still have the vigilante and the veteran to worry about, too. Look out for who wants a hung vote because that may be the vigilante wanting to get a chance to play his role.

    I'm not sure that there even is a vigilante. And the less we say about the veteren, the better. That is the one role that we do not want revealed - if there is a veteren, we want him to surprise someone.

    I'm certainly not going to hang the vote in the hope that the vigilante exists and agrees with me. If Madoc votes for you, I'll think very carefully about what to do, but otherwise it'll be Whisker.
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    It hadn't occurred to me that the Defector wouldn't learn who the Guardians are upon defection. Yikes!
     
    Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
    Bah, I thought this reasoning would lead me to some deep insight, but no such luck.

    Reasoning is overrated, dear Guardian.
     
    Posted by AristonAstuanax (# 10894) on :
     
    His duties as a soldier had detained Lt. Madoc for longer then anticipated; an opportunity for a walk with Rose, well...
    He wasn't convinced that she wasn't a Guardian-in fact, he rather liked the idea that she was one-but, with all this finger-pointing and suspicion, only Guardians would emerge unscathed. These divisions and allegations had only broken the camp's ability to fight back; without even a small amount of trust and cooperation, everyone would wake up with their throats slit.
    Andrew Whiskers would not be the first man driven to insanity as a consequence of his heinous deeds-nor would he be the first lunatic to kill because of his fractured mind. Papagena...well, she was a cat. Enough said. Then again, there were plenty of people who became a mite strange after exposure to the desert sun and the vast sandy wastes-and Owain rather wanted to believe the best about his companion during the long night watches. Either of them could be guilty, or even both of them. At this point, though, every innocent life mattered.
    Which made him consider his own. He would be a far more valuable asset to the camp as a living innocent than as a guiltless corpse. Eli, for whatever reason (Madoc suspected he was trying to form a voting bloc via blackmail) was casting his typical aspersions on innocents; Owain took this suspicion as public evidence of his own innocence. But-how to keep from voting in a way that Was Exactly What Eli Would Expect A Guardian To Do?
    Vote for Andrew, we get an almost-certain death of a likely Guardian; of course, making it so that he is the only person who could be lynched WEWEWEAGTD.
    Papagena? A tie vote, to be decided by the Masons. An absolution from personal responsibility, fits in with Eli's suspicions, and, because it's inconspicuous, WEWEWEAGTD.
    Arsene or Seth? As good as deliberately splitting the vote, and indirectly forcing one for Andrew. Clever, covert, and WEWEWEAGTD.
    No lynching? Unexpected. Stelthy. A shock to all, an attempt to keep from killing an innocent to buy more time-but, as it would do nothing about our cultist infestation, WEWEWEAGTD.
    So no matter what I do, I get nominated by Eli for acting exactly as a cultist would (like being silent). A great attempt to blackmail me into voting your way, if I do say so myself!
    Your suggestions are worthless, your advice worth still less. You suspect the kitty? I do too, but Andrew just as much-and, based on your track record, I'm going against you. Had you kept your damn mouth shut, I might not have forced your hand; as it happened, though, we're all quite glad that we've figured out how to interpret your "advice."
     
    Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
     
    The thunderous voice insisted.

    "Come to me..."

    "Yes, Master", Andrew dared to whisper. The high priest was shocked that the Great One offered him a private audience in the Sparkling Throne Room.

    The high priest became white, as his heart rate started to decrease. His heart beat grew slower and slower. Until everything became full of deep blue light. Ra's eyes were fixed on Andrew's face. "I have work for you to do in my Chambers", the Great One said.

    Andrew suddenly became calm and forgot all that was troubling him. The masonic mafia was a dim memory. Andrew's heart stopped. Ra was very pleased with his servant.

    Andrew's body was found a couple of hours later by an Egyptian worker. He was holding his stuff firmly and he was wearing the precious diadem. The sacred scarabs were dead in his pocket.

    [ 10. November 2010, 17:17: Message edited by: El Greco ]
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    Good gracious, Andrew Whisker seems to have died of fright before the two Masons could show up to finish lynching him!
     
    Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
     
    In Andrew Whisker's pocket was found a small piece of paper. It was sealed and at the front it read: "IN CASE OF VIOLENT DEATH. TO BE READ THREE DAYS AFTER I GET MURDERED. ANDREW WHISKERS, SERVANT OF THE OLD GODS". The workers had broken the seal, and the content was open for all to read.

    [ 10. November 2010, 19:40: Message edited by: El Greco ]
     
    Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
     
    Though it seems rather superfluous at this point, we are in a tight enough corner without angering the Red Cat Goddess. So, in the manner of your Christian Saul, I record my consent to the death of Andrew Whisker.
     
    Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
     
    Dai was finding the tension of waiting to see whether Whisker was or was not a guardian hard to bear. He went to the bar to get a drink. Where he may be subsequently found slumped drunk and muttering incoherently about calamari.

    OoC: I shall have irregular internet access for maybe a week.
     
    Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
    So when Arsene voted, he was in effect proposing (or hoping) that out of Seth/Madoc/Andrew/Eli/Smudgeson, only one was a Guardian or Defector. Which means he was in effect proposing/hoping that at least one of either Dai Mortal or me is a Guardian or Defector. If he truly believes there is a Defector, then he's proposing/hoping that both Dai Mortal and me are Guardians or Defectors (along with Papagena).[/i]

    Will you think very badly of me if I say that I do not generally approach games with such academic rigour [Hot and Hormonal] ? I would not speculate like that as I do not think it works that way.
    Why? Partly because such speculation rests on too many unknowns - and if one followed the reasoning then the first one or two voters (Guardian?) would effectively determine the outcome. The longer the game lasts the likelier a Guardian or other will be forced to lynch one of their own if voting differently would look too suspicious. So the identity of the late birds is not so important.

    And now I am holding my breath for the revelation who Andrew really was. The Divine Cat is still sleeping it appears.
    His letter was not helpful. As far as I could make out it said that he wishes as his gravestone engraving:

    Here rest in peace I do
    I'd rather it were you!
     
    Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Sylvander:
    As far as I could make out it said that he wishes as his gravestone engraving:

    Here rest in peace I do
    I'd rather it were you!

    [Killing me]

    This is hilarious!

    +++++ Doctor Andrew Whisker was a Citizen.
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    Oh hell. Rose burst out with a stream of four-letter words.: Pear. Lime. Blue. Grey. Pink. Road.

    OK, I retract my suspicion of you, Arsene. So that puts the Guardians as at least three of Dai, Seth, Papagena, and Madoc. If there's a defected defector, we're doomed. So let's hope there's not a defector. So it illustrates that I was right in my suspicions that the Guardians are the quiet ones. On that basis I'd guess Madoc to be the innocent odd man out.

    Drat, darn, piss, and tarnation. I should have voted for Papagena. I was taken in by her oh-so-innocent manner.
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Sylvander:
    and if one followed the reasoning then the first one or two voters (Guardian?) would effectively determine the outcome.

    And that's exactly what they did do. Dai and Papagena diverted attention by splitting their vote, but by not voting for Papagena they lured me into also not voting for Papagena, and the subtle tilt away from Papagena eventually led to Citizen Whisker's demise.

    Bah, blast, and blivet.

    Well, kudos to you for sticking to your Papagena-guns.
     
    Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
    OK, I retract my suspicion of you, Arsene.

    Why?

    I don't know for sure if Papagena is guilty or innocent. And if Arsene isn't a cultist, and we believe his own words, neither did he.

    Voting for her, when Arsene did it, was a bad vote. There was next to no chance of getting her. Andrew was the lead candidate from our discussions. For all the innocent voters knew, he could have been a cultist. A spoiler vote was still a spoiler even though he turned out to be guiltless.

    If there's four Guardians left, they've now won.

    If there are three, then Arsene and Madoc are two of them. The third, I'm guessing at. Maybe Papagena, and Arsene was playing a double bluff. But I also can't shake the suspicion that Rose, who prepared to sacrifice Arsene if necessary, has now seen the chance of a perfect win. Frankly, if she is guilty, she deserves it because she's as sly a snake as it has ever been my pleausre to meet, but I'll deny it to her if I can.

    My advice: Arsene first. Then Madoc. Then? Well, three more of us will be dead by then, and that may limit our options. Let's see how it goes.
     
    Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
     
    I hope this lynching increased my credibility. Just in case night falls and the Guardians get me, my suspicions for the record:

    1. Eli - as close to "absolutely sure" as a citizen can get. (Why? His many illogical reasonings, as stated many times above. Andrew is the third innocent we lynched on Eli's advice ... I hope that now at last certain people will cease being awed by him. And of course Lady B., the first who ever nominated him paid with her life – what a coincidence [Biased] )
    Yep, I hate playing on the basis of a flaw in the rules, but nothing explains his behaviour unless he is mason-defector).

    2. Papagena - reasonably sure (Why? As stated above)

    3. Rose - not sure
    Why? She did not answer my invitation for a moonlight walk, grrrr! AND Andrew suspected her AND she was convinced by Eli at a point when I think he was all too obviously off the mark. I suspect she is too intelligent to do so by mistake (seriously, for a change). On the other hand she seemed to be genuinely thinking aloud (much like I do) and correcting herself. Thinking aloud a lot is good for the citizens' camp and risky for Guardians.
    But then - I could be absolutely wrong in all my reasonings and what a fool I'd look later.

    or
    Dafyd - not sure.
    Why?
    He repeatedly mispelt my name as Beauregarde [Mad]
    He also agrees with Eli often. And because of this pseudo-maths post

    quote:
    Originally posted by Dafyd:
    quote:
    Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
    In your group C, surely you meant "guardian" and not "mason"?

    oops, yes. I was possibly confusing the guardians with a criminal organisation based in the Mediterranean (Sicily) that also starts with 'ma'.

    The number of possibilities in which there are:
    i) Two guardians in C; one in B or A: 1*5= 5.
    ii) One guardian in C; one in B, one in A: 2*3*2 = 12
    iii) One in C; two in
    [...] etc.

    A) A Guardian would know that there is a mason in his own camp and might accidentally make the mistake above. (Could be genuine error, though).

    B) These pseudo-maths are usually useless because you don't gain much from (even exact) maths based on very inaccurate figures (i.e. speculative guesses) to start from. But this kind of post, so confusing that nobody checks the details but looking impressive is much in Eli's style when he tries to stun people into believing him while talking rubbish. Why does Dafyd go for this game, now?

    That is my little wisdom at this point. Have not thought about Madoc, Seth, Dai much. Why does Rose not mention Dafyd?
    We might gain better insights from analysing past voting and arguing patterns based on Andrews' innocence. I don't have time to re-read the thread. I trust Eli the Serpent will come up with something incomprehensible, though. Other contributors welcome!

    The most important thing imho now is to get rid of Eli! If he is innocent I advocate running amok randomly as our best option. I at least would feel absolutely clueless.
    (Relatively) luckily Andrew was nothing more valuable than a citizen (sorry, old man). That is relatively good for us: If we are lucky the Guardians will hit a wrong target tonight [Smile]

    If there are three Guardians plus a defector then the game is over anyway, innit?

    On the other hand, there are five fingers, too.

    PS: Arsène won't have internet access from Fri noon to Sunday. The Guardians can't murder people in Nuremberg, can they?

    PPS: If the Guardians strike at the veteran – who gets to choose which Guardian dies with him? And what happens if the veteran happens to be protected by the doctor? Does his attacker still die?
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    Eli, I return to you the compliment of sly as a snake. I'm hoping that just as I am innocent, you are innocent. But it does not escape my attention that you are now advocating killing off exactly the people I believe are innocent, and you have abandoned your original position that one of Lady B, Whisker, and Papagena were guilty. We've discovered Lady B and Whisker to be Citizens, so why abandon your convictions now? Why not believe Papagena to be guilty?

    I'm more convinced by my "the quiet ones are guilty" principle than by your position against talkative Arsene and Madoc.

    [cross-posted]

    [ 11. November 2010, 14:17: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
     
    Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
     
    Rose, I just notice Eli is not just a serpent but a X-poster. And he is throwing suspicion upon you. This in my eyes indicates you are probably innocent.

    If I were Eli I'd now try to manipulate you by saying you can "prove" (=increase likelihood) your innocence by voting with me to lynch him tomorrow. But I don't like these manipulative ways - yet still hope you'd be willing to be persuaded that he is the most likely candidate.
    If you are not convinced (please explain why, whether there is more in it than his mason status) and nor are the others then I'd go with you for Papagena.

    But you just discovered yet another blatant inconsistency in Eli's reasoning (thanks for spotting that one) - how much more proof will you need? He is a player who in the past was known for focussing on a suspect and consistently going after them with all his might. This time he is constantly swaying hither and thither like a drunken monkey.

    Main thing is that we all agree on the same candidate tomorrow - because if the game continues at all then we can only have a 1-vote majority left. How does one technically make sure of such an agreement when not everybody is trustworthy and we can only vote one after the other? Sigh.

    (There is of course the possibility that Eli and Rose enact a great theatre for our benefit to make sure Rose survives for the Guardians till the end! But I would at present not lynch Rose on that basis. Only draw my hat).
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Eliab:
    If there's four Guardians left, they've now won.

    Actually, not quite. It just occurred to me: if the Defector doesn't get told who the three Guardians are, and/or if the three Guardians don't get told that someone has defected, then a Defector might accidentally help us lynch a Guardian, or a Guardian help us lynch a Defector.

    Red Cat Goddess, would you be willing to clarify for us who gets told what?

    Rose appealed, desperately, to the inscrutable oracle.

    Arsene, I like your story of sticking to your Papagena-guns as a Citizen and trying to foil possible early Guardian voters; over Eli's story that it was obviously a bad move -- Eli's story doesn't give us any chance to foil early Guardian voters throwing us off the scent of an effecive lynching.

    I haven't said much about Dafyd/Dai becuase there isn't much to say: he's been playing an effective Guardian strategy of lying low, and it makes it mentally very hard to say anything about him because there are so many other talkative players speaking to my gut-instinct-lizard-brain saying "pay attention to us." Same with Seth/fletcher christian. Same with CuppaT/Papagena. That's what makes Guardians-staying-quiet such an effective strategy. We have to overcome our gut instincts enough to bring them up to consciousness. It's part of what schnookered me into voting against Whisker instead of Papagena: Whisker was behaving so very oddly I thought there must be something there, and I was extremely curious to find out what it was. The inoffensive kitty cat just slipped right on by. It's like a cloak of invisibility "nothing to see here, folks, just walk on by."

    [cross-posted again! Arsene, give me some time to now read and digest your latest post.]

    [ 11. November 2010, 14:45: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    You know, technically Andrew Whisker hasn't been lynched yet. So Miss Hyacinth Smudgeson could help us out by voting for No Lynching, or for Arsene or Papagena (in effect a no lynching). Then it will be discovered that Andrew hasn't died, merely fainted, and we'll be one stronger to hold off the Guardians' onslaught in the next round.
     
    Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
    You know, technically Andrew Whisker hasn't been lynched yet.

    Brilliant! You are even more cunning than I suspected! [Killing me] Vicious even. Go, show 'em baddies that we can play dirty, too [Big Grin]

    Who came up with the idea that the defector does not get told who the others are? Would not make sense to me - in what way would he part of their team? He could not deliberate on nightly killings, he would be effectively powerless. He could vaguely feel he won if the Guardians do, but it is not much of a game for him is it?

    It is not quite irrelevant in what order we lynch. IF the Guardians hit a veteran and they (rather than the veteran or the Divine Cat) get to choose who in their team ought to die, they'd choose the one whom we most suspected anyway. Personally I'd say that was Eli, so they'd give him up first, I expect.
    But we do not need to discuss this now - let's see whom they kill overnight and if they hit the veteran.

    quote:
    Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
    [cross-posted again! Arsene, give me some time to now read and digest your latest post.]

    Apologies. I never wrote so much on an internet thread in my life. But I'll mostly be away this weekend and next week, so I have to share all my tuppence' worth with my team now.
     
    Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
    You know, technically Andrew Whisker hasn't been lynched yet. So Miss Hyacinth Smudgeson could help us out by voting for No Lynching, or for Arsene or Papagena (in effect a no lynching). Then it will be discovered that Andrew hasn't died, merely fainted, and we'll be one stronger to hold off the Guardians' onslaught in the next round.

    I'm sure that Eli would then argue that it was all a cunning plan, and he would convince someone to nominate me for next round.
     
    Posted by Smudgie (# 2716) on :
     
    Hmmm...

    Hyacynth mused over her strong cup of tea. Her customers - a rather depleted group - all seemed deep in thought too. Things were getting increasingly tense.

    She was not sure precisely what had happened with Andrew Whisker. Was he dead? Was he innocent? Rumours abounded but there seemed little clarity. Still convinced of his guilt, she was unsure of the direction her vote should take (and the fuzzy headed sensation coming from forgetting to take her tablets that morning didn't help!). But it seems to her that a vote for papagena might at least help rid the camp of fleas.
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    Dear Red Cat Goddess,

    Given that Dai (Dafyd) and Arsene (Sylvander) will not have reliable internet access for the next week, could we have a week's break in action? That would give them a chance to join in nominations, discussions, and defenses. That is, if the other players are amenable to biting their fingernails for another week. It would be a pity for the end-game of this down-to-the-wire contest to be vitiated by lack of all the interested parties.

    Very Sincerely,
    Rose Autenrieth
     
    Posted by CuppaT (# 10523) on :
     
    Black Cat Questions:

    Who ever said that Andrew was innocent? I don't see it anywhere and the Red one has not come yet. We all act like a bunch of lemmings most of the time.

    Why does a dead man keep on talking so much?
     
    Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
     
    what the hell is goin on? Hehe...I feel like it's suddenly swung towards an episode of the twilight zone here.
     
    Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by CuppaT:
    Who ever said that Andrew was innocent?

    He did himself in a premature death scene.

    quote:
    Originally posted by CuppaT:
    We all act like a bunch of lemmings most of the time.

    Oh, so you Guardians want to throw your hands up and commit group suicide? That would be a pity now that we almost gotcha!

    quote:
    Originally posted by CuppaT:
    Why does a dead man keep on talking so much?

    Says the talking cat... [Biased]
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    (cross-posted)

    Papagena, Andrew himself said he is a Citizen, after his declaration of apparent death.

    As for a hiatus, on second thought, it does risk losing momentum, so maybe it's not a good idea. Dear Red Cat Goddess, do as you think best. Well, of course you'd do that anyway.

    Arsene, I'll be rereading the thread with an eye to considering Eli as a Defector-Mason. Are we agreed on going after one of Papagena or Eli? I'm still unsure about changing my trust of Eli. For the record, what has swayed me towards trusting him was his explanation about why he wouldn't defect even if he were a Defector, so I'll be reexamining that too.

    [ 11. November 2010, 18:12: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
     
    Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
    Are we agreed on going after one of Papagena or Eli?

    For my part, yes.
    Hee hee, I can almost see the Guardians hectically working out a strategy behind the scenes, cold sweat on their fronts. (Or is that a self-satisfied grin and a rubbing of hands?)
     
    Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
     
    So now that we have Hyacinth’s vote :


    You naughty, naughty archaeological camp. As Andrew truthfully said, you’ve once again offed a citizen.

    Since Andrew has apparently already achieved communion with Ra, night falls directly.

    Please PM your night actions now.

    I think we should probably be ok without the hiatus in the game, since things always slow down over the weekend anyway. I shall be a little indulgent with the timings (and don’t forget that the Red Cat is also available as a proxy if need be).

    (Oh, and the rules clarification – if a defector finds one of the Guardians, they find them all.)
     
    Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
     
    Eli Abrahams retires to his tent, but cannot sleep. For the first time since Lord Whisker died, he is deeply unsure whether he will survive these Guardians. He lights one small hooded lantern, and checks, for the last time, the maze of trip-wires, alarm bells and booby traps that festoon the sides of the tent.

    Except, that is, for the small flap of canvas that has been deftly cut with a razor and secured in place. Eli’s heart misses a beat, and he turns back to his bed, already knowing what he will see.

    The masked figure sits, relaxed against Eli’s richly embroidered pillows. His – or her – hand rests on a small steel cross-bow. An unimpressive device, looking more like a toy than a serious weapon, but Abrahams has seen such a thing before. The winch-drawn, sprung steel arm is more than capable of punching an iron bolt through a human body. And such bolts are commonly poisoned.


    “You could scream, of course. And, perhaps, someone would come rushing in to save you. It’s a shame that you trapped the entrance, isn’t it?”

    Eli shakes his head, sadly. “You know that I can’t do that. That would be one more life you need to take, wouldn’t it? Otherwise you’d have shot before I knew you were here.”

    “I could have done.”

    “But you want something from me, perhaps? Can we do a deal?” The Jew’s cheeks flush as the blood returns. Perhaps there is still hope.

    “Assuredly we can do a deal. To expiate your violation of his tomb, your soul can serve great Senkhet.”

    “I have money. Your brotherhood must need that. I have information, contacts... there must be something you need.”

    “We have no use for anything else of yours. Except, perhaps, your voice. You can scream, leap aside, go for the pistol in your coat pocket. It’s just behind you. Your friends may come. They may step past the bear trap. I might miss. It’s your last chance. Will you take it?”

    Eli stands in thought for a moment, staring at the impassive figure. At last he turns around slowly, wraps his prayer-shawl around his shoulders, and bows his head. The bed creaks softly, and there are footsteps drawing close. He feel the assassin’s breath, and sense the tip of the crossbow bolt barely touching the back of his shirt. He opens his mouth, which is as dry as the desert sands, willing the words out in a rasping, hesitant voice: “Shema Yisral, Adonai Eloheinu Ad...”

    The bolt takes Eli Abrahams cleanly through the heart. The assassin in supports the body as it falls, laying it soundlessly onto the carpeted floor, before stepping over the concealed trap and departing into the cool night.


    Eli Abrahams is dead. He was a Mason and (most unfortunately) not any sort of defector.
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    Ah, fuck. That is an extremely odd choice. Why kill Eli, when by leaving him alive the Guardians could continue to leave us Citizens roiling in dissension and possibly lynching him, an innocent, rather than finding a Guardian to lynch?

    I have to say, except for Hart's murder, the Guardians have surprised me at every turn with their murders. (I didn't predict Hart's murder, but it wasn't surprising after the fact.)

    I suppose it could be because he was suspicious of Arsene and Madoc, but surely his suspicions were carrying less and less weight, with Arsene and me declared as not going to go along with Eli.

    I nominate Papagena.

    (Incidentally, when I proposed that Miss Smudgeson vote for a No Lynching and we could have Andrew Whisker back alive, I had miscounted the votes and didn't realize that Eliab's vote had been sufficient to lynch already.)
     
    Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
     
    Eli Abrahams (Eliab) is dead. He was a mason.

    Nominations are now open - in view of the weekend and people not getting on line as often as usual, probably until about Wednesday night.
     
    Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
     
    Seth felt disappointed......again. How could it be that we have lynched so many people who turned out to be innocent? The guardians were obviously playing a very clever game. He took some coffee out of his flask and sat in the sand to be consoled by his camels. Not one person had made an approach to him to hire a camel and get out of this dump. Business was slow and with less and less people it was going to get slower. Seth began to think about the possibility of packing everything up and leaving for a new dessert before he too ended up buried in the sand
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    Rose repeated her nomination of Papagena, just in case the first one had been too early.

    Then she ducked into the teatent's deserted kitchen (where was Miss Smudgeson hiding herself these days?) and whipped up a batch of lemon squares. Wrapping them in a napkin, she put them in a basket and headed out to the camel string.

    "Mr Seth, you were wanting a new dessert?"
     
    Posted by CuppaT (# 10523) on :
     
    Ok, that was pretty clever, even if you did nominate me.
     
    Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Sylvander:

    Dafyd - not sure.
    Why?
    He repeatedly mispelt my name as Beauregarde [Mad]
    He also agrees with Eli often. And because of this pseudo-maths post
    A) A Guardian would know that there is a mason in his own camp and might accidentally make the mistake above. (Could be genuine error, though).

    B) These pseudo-maths are usually useless because you don't gain much from (even exact) maths based on very inaccurate figures (i.e. speculative guesses) to start from. But this kind of post, so confusing that nobody checks the details but looking impressive is much in Eli's style when he tries to stun people into believing him while talking rubbish. Why does Dafyd go for this game, now?

    Dai woke up briefly from alcoholic slumbers briefly to answer the allegations.
    Dai apologises again for the misspelling. He would like to point out that the Great Red Cat goddess is also doing it. (Although he thinks it may be he who confused her, so he's doubly apologetic.)
    Eli clearly was innocent even before the guardians offed him. And although he'd been unlucky with his votes so far, I still maintain he was basing his reasoning on sound principles.
    The confusion of masons and guardians was indeed a mistake.
    I came out with that maths post above because Rose asked me to clarify my pedantic comments. I agree that the maths is only as good as the underlying assumptions. The underlying assumptions in this case are that either you or Papagena are guilty. I notice that by your repeated accusations of Papagena you are agreeing with them. So why are you questioning assumptions that you agree with? Hmm?
    As for Rose's assertion that I'm too quiet, I've looked back over the history and I have been not been as quiet as she's making out, even before she accused me.

    Why was Eli killed by the guardians? We knew he was innocent, but if enough people accused him of being the defector he could have been lynched. If Rose and Beauregard had nominated him, three guardians could have joined them and they'd have lynched him. So why kill him first? An obvious answer: the guardians weren't sure of having three additional votes on top of Rose and Beauregard. At least one of Beauregard and Rose is a guardian.

    Other reasons the guardians might have wanted Eli dead?
    1) He had accused Beauregard or Madoc, or;
    2) The guardians wanted us to think it was because he had accused Beauregard and Madoc, or;
    3) The guardians wanted us to think they wanted us to think it was because he'd accused Beauregard and Madoc. etc.
    In other words, we can't say whether the guardians are bluffing or double-bluffing. I suspect the double-bluff myself - although that's because I already suspect Beauregard.

    Anyway, we need to get it right this time. I still think our best bet is to go for Papagena or Beauregard. And as is probably obvious I think Beauregard is more suspicious.

    [ 12. November 2010, 20:21: Message edited by: Dafyd ]
     
    Posted by AristonAstuanax (# 10894) on :
     
    Eli? They'd knocked off Eli???
    Lt. Madoc really didn't understand this one; surely the Guardians should have left Eli alive to divide the camp and gone for Miss Smudgeson. Having a Mason with little credibility would be an asset to the cultists; if it weren't an insane proposition, Owain would have thought suicide more likely than assassination.
    Well, this about cleared his name-the lieutenant would have never allowed one of his men to act in such a way-especially when that action pointed at their officer! Plus, having Eli pointing fingers at him was something of a proof of innocence; if anything, recent events seemed to be an attempt to frame Madoc more than anything else.
    Pity, really; it wasn't a very good attempt. Why, if he'd been in charge of the cultists, the camp would have been dead for some time! The fact that this would mean he would be dead as well (along with, presumably, Rose) was tempered consideribly by the thought of the Captain being dead as well. Despite all the chaos in the camp, his commander was exhibiting a perfectly typical response by an English army officer to wholesale slaughter: sitting in his tent and ignoring it. Lieutenant Madoc wondered if he was planning on doing anything about the potential Guardian victory...
    Perish the thought. Madoc and his men were ready, but he wasn't so sure about the other companies.
    As for the recent ad hoc judicial proceedings...well, Papagena has been on the ballot a few times already. Let's hope that this hunch, at long last, pays off in our eleventh hour.
     
    Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
     
    It occurs to me after some thought that another reason that the guardians might have gone after Eli is that he was sufficiently unpopular that the guardians thought that the doctor wouldn't protect him. That makes some of my reasoning about Beauregard even more flawed than it was anyway. I call it reasoning; I suppose it's really just rationalised guesswork. Aaargh...
     
    Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
     
    Arsène is flabbergasted. [Eek!]
    Even if few people will believe it.
    At least the Guardians will [Smile]

    I am flabbergasted by Eli's often irrational game which persuaded me of the "mason-defector fantasy" (his words). No doubt he will think the same about me. I was the more convinced of his his guilt because I know (and you will, too, if you lynch me today) that after I accused him I became the fourth innocent whom he put forward for lynching.

    I am flabbergasted by the Guardians' killing Eli when it looked pretty much like we were going to lynch him tomorrow.

    I find only few rational explanations for this murder:

    a) The Guardians thought Eli was the one innocent least likely to be protected by the doctor (because many people - possibly incl.the doctor? - suspected him by now).

    b) The Guardians knew that I was wrong in my suspicion of Eli (i.e. not dangerous for them) but some innocents seemed to trust me - possibly this meant the doctor protected me.

    c) As a mason Eli (like Smudgeson) was unlikely to be the veteran, too.

    d) Eli's death totally incriminates me. (If I wasn't me, I'd suspect me now).
    So by killing Eli and getting me lynched they'd get two-for-the-price-of-one.

    e) They are so secure by now that they enjoy a little game of cat and mice by killing our prime suspect.

    I cannot blame anyone who wants to lynch me. All I do is ask you to consider how likely the reflection outlined under a) to (especially) d) is. If you were Guardian would you consider acting this way?

    I am at present totally clueless and obviously doubt everything I said earlier. Papagena? Why Papagena?
    I am surprised that Rose still trusts me. Why? I probably wouldn't.
    She puts forward Papagena, sticking by our previous plan. Why? Even as an arch-Guardian she could have turned round and blamed me without arousing any suspicion.

    Miss Mason Smudgeson - can I have a strong cup of tea, please? You are the only soul here whom one can trust absolutely.

    Dai, I agreed with your findings above (and you agreed with my initial assumption of a mason-defector being nonsense) - but can't I still suspect you on the basis of something else? In this game some Guardian is bound to agree with some of the goodies some of the time. I look for arguments that confuse by pretending to prove more than they can and treat them as suspicious. Eli's death shows how much of our "analysis and reflections" are glorified guesswork... [Frown]

    Papagena is the only player whom many here suspected at various points. I did, Dai did, Rose did and Eli+ did.
    I'd go for her again. Mind you, it would still leave me clueless about the other Guardian(s) the following day (if there is one).
     
    Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
     
    Sorry, I only see now that Dai already made my point a) about the doctor not protecting Eli.
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    I think Seth is probably a Guardian too, along with Papagena. Then I'm left with a tossup between Madoc, Dai, and possibly Arsene for the third Guardian. But I'm still inclined to trust Arsene, because of how he reasons out loud.

    On rereading the thread I see that Dai has not been as quiet as I thought. I'm still undecided on him though.

    Madoc's lengthy reasoning had me thinking he was innocent, but maybe he is a Guardian and his schtick of "how would I think if I were a Guardian" is cleverly designed to allow him to post at length using the reasoning he is most familiar with.
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Dafyd:
    Why was Eli killed by the guardians?  We knew he was innocent, but if enough people accused him of being the defector he could have been lynched.  If Rose and Beauregard had nominated him, three guardians could have joined them and they'd have lynched him.  So why kill him first?  An obvious answer: the guardians weren't sure of having three additional votes on top of Rose and Beauregard.  At least one of Beauregard and Rose is a guardian.

    You're counting wrong.  There are only seven of us left in camp, so only four votes are required for a lynching.  So the Guardians would only need to count on one of the remaining four innocents to join them in hypothetically lynching Eli this round.
     
    Posted by CuppaT (# 10523) on :
     
    But Eli is dead, so how can we be hypothetical about lynching him?

    I am defenseless. I have stated my innocence before and need not keep reiterating it.

    I am back to suspecting Arsene as a bothersome fly, though, and will nominate Rose Autenrieth as worthy of lynching. To me, she is suspicious. And, as it is attested that cats have nine lives, I seem to recall in a previous one that she was quite the friendly killer, whom I trusted to my demise. I am beginning to be more wary of her as this desert life plays on.

    Y'all can vote for whom you please. But I think the ones who are acting nice are in cahoots with one another, Lt. Maddoc and Rose. The vocally vicious ones are more likely innocent.

    [This poor post took more than an hour to do till I learned how to link, and so was mostly written before the last couple posts.]
     
    Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by CuppaT:
    I am back to suspecting Arsene as a bothersome fly, though, and will nominate Rose Autenrieth as worthy of lynching.

    While it is not nice to compare Arsène to a bothersome fly (he is touchy, don't you know) I am going to forgive you on account of your youth and catness.
    Maybe you are right and we need to think along entirely new lines. It is our last chance - why not take desperate measures?
    My problem is - I cannot decide how to (dis)trust folk who hardly speak.

    quote:
    Originally posted by CuppaT:
    [This poor post took more than an hour to do till I learned how to link, and so was mostly written before the last couple posts.]

    I am rather impressed (also by the effort you put into finding a thread four years old!). I still do not know how to link to an individual post anywhere. Can you tell me, please? (In a strictly technical PM perhaps?) Or let me know where to find the information?

    quote:
    Originally posted by Dafyd:
    Dai apologises again for the misspelling. He would like to point out that the Great Red Cat goddess is also doing it.

    Yes indeed. Can we lynch her afterwards perhaps?
     
    Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
     
    As Rose has pointed out, I was miscounting the number of people that the Guardians would have needed to lynch Eli. And I'm pretty certain that at least one of Rose or Madoc must be innocent, and they've both expressed criticisms of Eli. So the Guardians could have been near certain of getting four people to lynch him. There goes that theory.

    Quick review of what I think we know.
    1) Smudgeson is innocent.
    2) At least one of Rose and Madoc is innocent. Possibly both are innocent, but they can't both be guardians.
    3) At least one of Papagena and Beauregard is guilty. Possibly both. (In fact, quite apart from my previous reasoning, given that I'm innocent and given that at least one of Rose or Madoc must be innocent this must be true.)

    Papagena's nomination of Rose must I think be viewed as a mistake. Going after Rose or Madoc at this stage is not playing the odds.
    The odds strongly favour going after Beauregard or Papagena.
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    (crossposted)

    quote:
    Originally posted by CuppaT:
    But Eli is dead, so how can we be hypothetical about lynching him?

    What I meant was, Dai was proposing that the Guardians couldn't be sure of lynching Eli during the day, hence had to murder him at night.  And his reason was that the Guardians must be unsure of assembling 5 votes, and finally that must be because one of Beauregard or I is (am?) a Guardian.  I'm pointing out that the Guardians would have needed only 4 votes to lynch Eli if they'd murdered someone else and tried to lynch Eli today.  So, given that Dai was wrong in his count, it also destroys this particular argument that one of Arsene or I is a Guardian.

    I'm not saying Arsene isn't a Guardian, but on balance I believe he's not.  And I'm sorry that by saying that I'll probably only confirm you in your belief that the two of us are in cahoots.  Not true.

    Thanks for digging up that thread.  That was a work of art. [Big Grin]   It was also very hard because I was perpetually thinking very carefully:  have I posted too much?  Have I posted too little?  Have I said something to inadvertently cast suspicion where I don't want to?  It's much easier to be a Citizen, as I am this time, and just post as I wish.

    [ 14. November 2010, 21:26: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Dafyd:
    2) At least one of Rose and Madoc is innocent. Possibly both are innocent, but they can't both be guardians.

    Why do you say this? (You happen to be right, in that I am a Citizen, but I wonder how you reached this conclusion.)
     
    Posted by CuppaT (# 10523) on :
     
    [I knew that Mafia was in Limbo. (I hang out there a lot.) And the way to do it is in the recent Styx practice thread.]

    CuppaT
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    I've been rereading Teufelchen's suggestions about Mafia, and he suggests that there be at least one more Mason than Mafia. So maybe there are only 2 Guardians here in Camp Sarastro. That would be nice! But I don't know if our benevolent Red Cat Goddess arranged things that way or not.
     
    Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:

    I'm not saying Arsene isn't a Guardian, but on balance I believe he's not. And I'm sorry that by saying that I'll probably only confirm you in your belief that the two of us are in cahoots. Not true.

    This I can confirm :-), alas. [Apart from the PM re linking to individual posts she kindly sent me. Ta muchly. Thx also to you, CuppaT!]

    quote:
    Originally posted by Dafyd:
    As Rose has pointed out, I was miscounting the number of people that the Guardians would have needed to lynch Eli. And I'm pretty certain that at least one of Rose or Madoc must be innocent, and they've both expressed criticisms of Eli. So the Guardians could have been near certain of getting four people to lynch him. There goes that theory.

    Quick review of what I think we know.
    1) Smudgeson is innocent.
    2) At least one of Rose and Madoc is innocent. Possibly both are innocent, but they can't both be guardians.
    3) At least one of Papagena and Beauregard is guilty. Possibly both. (In fact, quite apart from my previous reasoning, given that I'm innocent and given that at least one of Rose or Madoc must be innocent this must be true.)

    Papagena's nomination of Rose must I think be viewed as a mistake. Going after Rose or Madoc at this stage is not playing the odds.
    The odds strongly favour going after Beauregard or Papagena.

    As I said I am so confused I can no longer follow these reasonings. I suspected Rose earlier a little bit – but the basis of that broke away with Eli's innocence. I suspected Papagena – but on account of her silence which is weak. And Madoc and Seth are just as quiet.

    All I can manage is a list of survivors (in the order they creep to mind):

    Rose (Autenteith Rd)
    Dai (Dafyd)
    Papagena (CuppaT)
    Arsène Beauregard [sic!] (Sylvander)
    Lt Madoc (Ariston Astuanax)
    Seth (fletcher Christian)
    Miss Hyacinth Smudgeson (Smudgie)

    quote:
    Originally posted by Dafyd:
    Papagena's nomination of Rose must I think be viewed as a mistake. Going after Rose or Madoc at this stage is not playing the odds.
    The odds strongly favour going after Beauregard or Papagena.

    If that reasoning is sound I'd agree – but only because I know I am innocent. That does not help anyone else much, though [Smile]

    I could stick with my ongoing suspicion of Papagena and vote to lynch her but if silence incriminates, can someone remind me why Madoc and Seth are not treated as more suspicious?
     
    Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
     
    Seth was quiet because he was thinking. Whoever the Guardians were, they had been quite happy to let Eli work away at pointing the finger at various citizens and letting us lynch them. Then all of a sudden he starts to point a finger at Arsene and the very same night he ends up dead.

    I reckon that Eli was guessing just as much as any of us citizens were guessing, and we were happy to go along with his stabs in the dark. Unfortunately he did the Guardians a huge favour, but just before he copped it, he begins to point the finger of suspicion at Arsene, who then starts filling his boots before they have even grown cold after his death.He's doing the same thing, hoping we will all be stupid enough to go, 'oh yeah, let's do that' in the same way we have before and then end up killing yet another innocent. I nominate Arsene

    *The real reason I have been quiet is cos I may have to go into hospital later this afternoon. So if I grow even more quiet it'll be cos I'm under the knife, but while I dream in anasthesia I shall think of this thread and hope I live and hope I have nominated a Guardian.
     
    Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
     
    Overheard on the desert breezes:

    "Let me get this straight - you're claiming to be one of mine and you still don't want to come with me to await the fulfillment of the Promise?"

    "Not exactly, father, just not yet. I told the angel to wait..."

    "It seems that you told the angel to ‘bugger off'..."

    "Bugger off and wait. I want to see what happens."

    "Listen, Eli, my son, don't mess me about. You're in on the absolute narrowest of margins. You spent your life accumulating money by lies and exploitation..."

    "I was not lucky enough to be able to get rich by pimping my sister..."

    "Point. Taken."

    "I just want to see if I was right or wrong."

    "You were wrong about many things - the recording angel has quite the list. And you were right - in the end and only just - about the one thing that matters: YHWH is God and He alone ... oh enough with the surprise, already. Of course I can say it. He calls Himself by my name, I call Him by His."

    "But was I right or wrong about the Guardians?"

    "Does it matter?"

    "Does it matter whether it matters?"

    "Oh have it your own way then! See it out to the end. We'll bag up the lot of you when it's all over. My life, what did I do to deserve such bloody stubborn descendants?"

    [softly] "I'm sure the recording angel has quite the list."
     
    Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
     
    Rose and Beauregard have both asked me about my three things I think we know.

    1) Smudgeson is a mason:

    She outed herself as one; Eli outed her as one. Eli was definitely a mason.
    I don't believe that there are any mason-defectors.

    2) At least one of Rose and Madoc is innocent (and maybe both):

    Madoc nominated Rose in the first round. If they were both guardians, that would have been a huge risk to take. If Eli had voted for Rose rather than for McBride Rose would almost certainly now be dead. I don't think it makes sense for the guardians to risk lynching each other unless they're under pressure in some way. (If a guardian thinks that he or she is likely to be lynched in the next couple of turns anyway, then it does become worthwhile for them to try nominating another guardian to put people off the scent.)

    3) At least one of Beauregard and Papagena is guilty (and maybe both):

    If they're not guilty then this means that all the guardians voted as a block in the first round. It's much more likely that they would have split their votes. In addition, the first person they killed off - Champion - had voted the same way, so they would have been killing off their cover. I don't think the guardians would have left themselves exposed like that. The guardians want, as far as possible, to hide themselves among innocents.
    (Also, if you accept my innocence, and I'm right about 1 and 2, then there aren't enough innocents left for both Papagena and Beauregard to be innocent.)
    I don't think Beauregard's accusations of Papagena show that they're not both guilty: it was likely when he did that that at least one might be lynched within a couple of turns.
     
    Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by fletcher christian:
    I nominate Arsene

    Not many people have the honour of being nominated twice in the same round [Smile]
    I feel very dangerous. Unfortunately I am not. [Frown]

    quote:
    Originally posted by Dafyd:
    Madoc nominated Rose in the first round. If they were both guardians, that would have been a huge risk to take.

    Sound convincing to me. But I do not know how to decide on which of these two it is.

    quote:
    Originally posted by Dafyd:
    3) At least one of Beauregard and Papagena is guilty (and maybe both): If they're not guilty then this means that all the guardians voted as a block in the first round. It's much more likely that they would have split their votes.

    Thanks for checking back on this. I cannot remember who voted what in round 1.
    But it sounds right and convinces me that Papagena is guilty - and simply sticking to her strategy of maximum taciturnity.
    But I have to say that I was absent with sunstroke in week 1. I voted "no lynching" by proxy before I even knew the nominees.

    quote:
    Originally posted by Dafyd:
    I don't think Beauregard's accusations of Papagena show that they're not both guilty: it was likely when he did that that at least one might be lynched within a couple of turns.

    That is not so convincing - when I first nominated her, neither of us was being suspected much. And neither of us came even close to being lynched in the next two days, so the likelihood you mention was not so great. If we were both Guardians it would have been an unnecesary risk to nominate her and to do so twice, don't you think?
    Sorry to be pedantic, Dai, but I need to be (i.e. save myself) if we want to win. I have written so much here. Talking a lot is very hard for a Guardian who at least sometimes needs to say what he does not think and do so convincingly.
    Apart from my being wrong in some votes, do you discover any inconsistencies, self-contradictions, undisclosed patterns of agreement with others in what I have been saying?
     
    Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
     
    tangent/

    Hope your surgery went well (and wasn't anything horribly scarily major), fc.

    /tangent
     
    Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
    Hope your surgery went well (and wasn't anything horribly scarily major), fc.

    Seconded.
     
    Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
     
    All grand, back now. Thanks
     
    Posted by AristonAstuanax (# 10894) on :
     
    Well, now that one of us has officially dodged a bullet, I think it's time for another to face one. I'm not sure there's much left for me to say right now, as anyone I might possibly suspect has been nominated; though I've been absent for a bit longer than I'd like (the Captain always has Yet Another Urgent Task), I'm pretty sure that, come lynching time, I'll be a bit more vocal. No need to talk out of turn or at bad times, you know...
     
    Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
     
    Time's up

    Please cast your votes. You may vote for:


    4 votes are required to secure a lynching.
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    I vote for Papagena, and I hope the other Citizens will join me.
     
    Posted by AristonAstuanax (# 10894) on :
     
    Alright. I hate to do this, but Papagena? Your time's up. Part of this is because we can't afford a split vote at this hour, but also because, out of the candidates left alive, I think you to be the most likely to be out for my blood.
    Most of this, I'll admit, is based on hunches. Yes, you've been accused of silence, but you're a cat-it's to be expected. What gives me pause about your paws, though, is how you've used your chances to defend yourself or accuse others. I'm assuming your Special Cat Powers give you insight into the minds of men and the hearts of ladies, but, by and large, we've never heard your thoughts about our fellow camp members, but rather simple protestations of innocence. This leads me to believe that you're afraid of making a revealing slip of the sandpaper tongue, thus revealing your true allegiance-or, since you already know who is innocent and who is guilty, there's no reason for you to try and decipher clues with us, nor search for patterns and odd behaviors! Those who already possess knowledge have no reason to seek it; those who want this answer to remain hidden should never aid those who search.

    Thus, since you only began to help us once fingers started to point your way, I think you have something to hide. Though I'm sad it has to end this way for us, dear kitty, the truth of the matter is that I can't let any more throats be slit.

    Goodbye.
     
    Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
     
    I'm afraid I'm still suspicious of Arsene
     
    Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
     
    I think Beauregard has been acting less suspiciously in the last couple of rounds than Papagena; at least one innocent must have voted for Papagena already while Seth is pretty suspicious as well.
    Papagena it is. Sorry kitty.
     
    Posted by CuppaT (# 10523) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by AristonAstuanax:
    but, by and large, we've never heard your thoughts about our fellow camp members, but rather simple protestations of innocence. This leads me to believe that you're afraid of making a revealing slip of the sandpaper tongue, thus revealing your true allegiance-or, since you already know who is innocent and who is guilty, there's no reason for you to try and decipher clues with us, nor search for patterns and odd behaviors! Those who already possess knowledge have no reason to seek it; those who want this answer to remain hidden should never aid those who search.

    The flaw here, of course, is that sometimes people (and cats) have no clue and nothing to say, and so say nothing. Most of you are good at bluffing. I am not, nor am I able to pull logical answers out of thin air. Hence, I am wary of everyone and have held my sweet little sandpapery tongue when I wanted, and talked also when I wanted. Hrumph.

    I would dearly love to vote for Rose, but at this point it would kill me. I have also felt the urge, like BL, to vote for myself and be done with it. But sense prevails, as it usually does, and I cast my vote for Arsene, in hopes that the other few will, too.

    [edited for boldness]

    [ 18. November 2010, 20:29: Message edited by: CuppaT ]
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    Given that Arsene is one of the two left to vote (along with Miss Smudgeson), it is unlikely that he will be lynched.

    Papagena, may I say that if you turn out to be innocent I will be very disappointed because it will mean that I am surrounded by Guardians whom I have no ability whatsoever to detect.
     
    Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
     
    A chilling presence drifts over the sand seeking out M. Beauregard and Miss Smudgeson. Finding first one target, then the other, Eli pokes each hard in the spine with an insubstantial finger, and in a soundless voice hisses: "Go on - vote!"


    The unwritten laws of the spirit world do not allow the shade to do more. Certainly Eli is powerless even to try to influence the way they should vote, and after a moment's thought, he finds that even if it were permitted, he would not wish to. If the Guardians are clever enough to succeed, then such is life. Eli has no thought of vengeance. He is, however, utterly consumed with a burning curiosity to see how this important, and final, chapter in his life will end.
     
    Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
     
    Dai Mortal went back to the bar to drown his worries.
    He decided to name the time at which he would pass out 'Friday afternoon'. The time at which he would wake up and find out what was happening he would designate 'Sunday evening'. In between he would be in a state he called 'away from keyboard'.

    Knawing his knuckles.
     
    Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
     
    Eli Abrahams' ghost gives up on the futile attempt to poke Beauregard into action with his icy fingers, and sits, melancholy, on a low dune whiling away the interminable hours by constructing a clanking and highly fashionable tangle of iron chains out of ectoplasm. After painstakingly fitting the last link, he finds the Frenchman and lifts the whole mass to smite him mightily, but ineffectually, over the head.

    Then he wanders off to Hyacinth's tea tent to curdle the milk.


    [ 19. November 2010, 14:03: Message edited by: Eliab ]
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    Brrr, it's awfully cold out here. Is there a ghost walking or something? Has it kidnapped Arsene and Miss Smudgeson?
     
    Posted by Smudgie (# 2716) on :
     
    Miss Smudgeson (slightly shocked that a fellow mason would curdle the milk) poured herself a refreshing cuppa.
    Truth be told, she felt suspicious of both Arsene and Papagena.... and wasn't totally convinced of Rose's innocence either. But it was the cat who most concerned her. Far too quiet and devious, slipping unnoticed into dark corners and, it had to be said, stealing the best seats too.
    Her vote would only have any value if she were to cast it for the cat anyway. Can you lynch a cat?
    Hyacinth votes for Papagena
     
    Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
     
    Arsene dreamt he was in a hostel in Sutherland with a few minutes' access to the papyrus-less communication realm. And at just the right time to vote ,too!
    He had left detailed instructions with the Great Cat to vote by proxy (thx for your assistance) which coincide directly with what he does now, i.e. follow Miss Smudgeson, the mason's vote (in time and in content).
    So
    PAPAGENA
    it is. (Sorry, cannot find how to operate the rectangular brackets on this papyrus).
    Fingers crossed it is the right thing to do.
     
    Posted by CuppaT (# 10523) on :
     
    Poison. It was poison.
    Someone, supposedly kindly, set out a bit of food in a low dish for the cat. One by one some folks slipped by and sprinkled something on the food. No one saw. Papagena ate it and died near the dish.
    Poor cat. She truly was a citizen.
     
    Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
     
    Eli's ghost watches the camp carefully. Is that it? Are the Guardians now a majority? Did they win? Might there be a doctor and veteren still alive to give the camp a slender chance? And what manner of deity is going to come to collect the last essence of an innocent murdered cat?

    The spirit gathers up the chains and drifts over to the small, furry body, and waits.

     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    Arrrrrggggghhhhhhh!

    Sorry Papagena.
     
    Posted by AristonAstuanax (# 10894) on :
     
    Lieutenant Madoc had been drilling a picked contingent of his men. While the rest of the company waited in idleness, he had been preparing for this contingency—it would be a very determined Guardian indeed who could deal with the crack force he had assembled! Even if the Guardians and camp members were now equal, there was still some sliver of hope for tomorrow—and, failing that, the army would do its best to stave off any possible massacre.
    Let's hope it doesn't come to that. Tonight's watch is going to be a lonely one without Papagena for company.
     
    Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
     
    You all seem to be getting on very nicely without me, but anyway -

    Papagena 5 votes
    Arsène Beauregard 2 votes.

    The cat is lynched. She was, as she says, a citizen.

    Night falls.
     
    Posted by Leetle Masha (# 8209) on :
     
    From a fan:


    [Tear] Papagena, R.I.P.
     
    Posted by Smudgie (# 2716) on :
     
    [tangent][i]Interestingly I find myself feeling really awful for being "virtually" responsible for the lynching of an innocent cat. With the innocent humans who died I felt far less guilt. Not sure what this says about me. [Hot and Hormonal] Must get a grip, Smudgie, must get a grip. It's all pretend really! [/tangent]
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    [losing grip tangent, continued]
    I dreamed last night that Smudgie was hosting the game and she sent me by accident an email identifying who the Guardians are. I wish!
    [/losing grip tangent]
     
    Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
     
    This is like waiting on a killer appearing in a horror film. Aggghhh....the tension is killing me.
     
    Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
     
    Morning everyone.

    The sun's up, it's getting hot already, and you are all alive and well (apart from the people who were already dead, obviously).

    Nominations open.
     
    Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
     
    Eli's shade hovers over the camp, rattling his chains omninously in the pale dawn. He tries a piercing howl for effect, and decides that that's more 'Banshee' than 'ghost-with-unfinished-business'. A low, anguished, moan would seem more in keeping. He tries one, and is quite pleased with the result.

    Unsurprisingly, there seems to be no new addition to the spirit world, so he drifts off to see whether the Red Cat Goddess has collected the soul of Papagena.

     
    Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
     
    Seems like the doctor did the right thing and the Guardians made their first mistake or rather we were lucky for the very first time in this darned game.
    After the Papagena lynching I thought if this were chess anything other than resigning would be regarded as bad sport.

    As it is we have a new lease of live and I have no clue what to do now, whom ot suspect. I felt rather sure about Eliab - and a little less about Papagena and both times got it wrong.

    I trust you'll want to lynch me. But unfortunately this will still be a mistake.

    I have an idea:
    There are now six of us left (is it theoretically possible that there are more than two Guardians among the six?).

    There must be one doctor, one mason (Smudgeson) and one innocent whom the doctor protected last night (the doctor knows who it is and that s/he is innocent as the Guardians tried to strike at him.

    So are there three innocents out of six whom we could identify by giving away information about ourselves, mainly the doctor (saying who he is and whom he protected)? Unless the doctor protected Mason Smudgie in which case we and s/he would be none the wiser.

    Can anyone think of a good way to use this knowledge so that it helps us to secure a 4-2 lynching vote rather than a hung vote?

    I think if there are three Guardians we are doomed but if there are only two then an unmasking of ourselves would help us win even if the doctor gets killed the following night. Or am I making a mistake (I'm in haste here).

    Let us discuss this before the doctor declares anyhting.

    Ok, my time on internet is up.

    Tata!
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    Interesting thought. The 4th vote would come from the 4th innocent who would see the 3 declared innocents and know to go along with them.

    Even if the Doctor protected Miss Smudgeson, would it be advantageous for the Doctor to declare himself? Then we would at least know 2 innocents.
     
    Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
     
    Blast. Should have gone for my first instincts on Papagena/Beauregard.
    On the other hand, well done the doctor.

    Could Beauregard say why he's maintaining that there are only two guardians? That seems unlikely to me.
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    There are six of us left. If there are three Guardians, they've won already. So we have to proceed as if there were two. Also, Teufelchen's 2006 recommendations for Mafia suggested at least one more Mason than Mafia, which is another argument in favor of two Guardians.
     
    Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
     
    We could still win with three guardians assuming we have a veteran or vigilante and the doctor keeps lucky. That would require the doctor not to identify himself or herself, of course.
    I'd be more enthusiastic about the two guardians idea if it didn't originate with Beauregard, about whom, for previously stated reasons, I am deeply suspicious.

    I wish Smudgie would speak up. Talk about guardians keeping quiet - the person keeping the quietest is the known innocent.
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    I had thought of the two Guardians idea earlier (about when Eli was murdered) -- I can't remember if I said anything at the time. Why are you suspicious of Arsene? And is there anyone else you suspect?

    I suspect Madoc, and Seth (but not so much after Papagena turned out to be innocent). I could perhaps be persuaded to suspect Arsene, but if he's guilty then I stand in awe at his pyrotechnics of verbiage.
     
    Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
     
    I suspect Arsene, because he tried to pick up the role of Eli pretty quickly after he died and then he immediately nominated an innocent. Like, that would have to involve serious bad luck if he was an innocent.
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    I nominate Madoc . This is because, based on posting style, I think Madoc's "what would a Guardian think" pose would be easier for a Guardian to carry off than Arsene's "I'm thinking out loud."

    At any rate, if Arsene is a Guardian, he must have an accomplice (I can't believe there's just one Guardian), and it seems as likely to be Madoc as anyone.
     
    Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
     
    I don't follow your reasoning there. Can you expand?
     
    Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
    Why are you suspicious of Arsene? And is there anyone else you suspect?

    As before, I think at least one guardian must have voted no lynching in the first round. And Arsene is the only one left. (I'd be more impressed by the torrent of verbiage argument if Smudgie weren't keeping so quiet.)
    By process of elimination, the others must be Seth and either you (Rose) or Madoc.
    Anyway, I strongly doubt that there's only two guardians. And if there's three of them they only need one innocent to vote for an innocent. Of course, if you and Beauregard are right about there being only two guardians I'd be making the wrong choice. Even so, I think the only way I'd consider voting for anyone other than no lynching this round is if Smudgie votes for someone and at least one person votes for someone else.

    [ 25. November 2010, 11:04: Message edited by: Dafyd ]
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    Seth, I'm not sure what else to say about my reasoning.

    Dai, I see what you're saying about Arsene. But I don't follow your "no lynching this round" argument. If there are three Guardians, and we don't lynch anyone, the most likely result is that the Guardians kill someone tonight. Then there are only five of us tomorrow, and the hypothetical three Guardians can lynch whomever they please, and kill the remaining innocent tomorrow night. Are you trusting in the existence of a Vigilante to happen to hit on a Guardian tonight?
     
    Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
     
    Yep, I feel it's too risky to have a 'no lynching' at this stage. If there are three guardians then we have lost if they get to kill someone in the night, haven't we?
     
    Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
     
    Whoops. I've realised I never set a time limit on this round. Call it tomorrow evening my time.

    So far we have a nomination for Madoc from Rose - I am not sure if anyone has made a formal nomination against Arsène?
     
    Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
     
    Three Guardians would simply make sure of a no-lynching by hung vote and then kill someone the following night. They can once more get unlucky but at the third attempt at the latest they'll hit the doctor who cannot protect himself.
    So with 3 Guardians the game would already be over.
    As it is I think we have lost in any case as I would lynch myself if I did not know better. I think I'll get lynched this round and then we've lost.
    I have no idea who the two guardians might be. It might be possible to find clues in analysing past voting patterns. But like all others I am too lazy to do that.
    I suspect I'll soon have to draw my hat to Rose, though [Biased] .

    [ 25. November 2010, 19:26: Message edited by: Sylvander ]
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    Only if you want to doff your cap to a very average Citizen, Arsene!

    I've looked at the voting patterns and there's no suspicious pattern that I can find.
     
    Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
     
    Seth thought long and hard about nominating Arsene. he was deeply suspicious of him, but it was just that - a suspicion. Not being great at maths, he was still trying to work out the scales of probability. If we have one person nominated and lynched there is a 50/50 chance they are a gardian (seeing that Rose too only has a suspicion about her nomination). So if Seth introduces a second candidate, does that increase or decrease the probability of getting a guardian? His head started to hurt. He still decided to take the risk and nominate Arsene
     
    Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
     
    Voting opens

    You may vote for:

    4 votes are needed to ensure a lynching.
     
    Posted by AristonAstuanax (# 10894) on :
     
    Why must the Army take me away from this blasted camp? It seems I've gotten back from haggling over supplies (no thanks to my captain for his "help;" with all due respect, Sir, I do believe wheat flour is a tad more important to our survival than that weak tea that only you drink, or the brandy only you are allowed) just in time to discover that I'm at risk of being executed by my own troops-and can't even nominate my own accuser. I think I may have accidentally hit on something during our first day of investigations here-I guess it's too late now to say anything that might justify my suspicions. Sweet Rose, how could I have been so blind?
    But. M. Beauregard. Perhaps less likely to be guilty than Rose (only now do I see the half-suspected thorn), but more likely than me--or Seth, Dai, or Matilda, for that matter. We know that there are at least two Guardians amongst us; Rose and Arsene seem most likely to me (they certainly seem to be in agreement about a great many things in their supposed calculations), with, I suppose, Seth being a possible third cultist, if there indeed is one. Dai and I are always putting up alternate hypotheses that don't necissarily agree with Rose and Arsene's, while we know that Miss Smudgeson is innocent. Furthermore, as M. Beauregard has been an object of suspicion of our camp before, I see no reason to abandon our past reasonings about him. Simply because he is the last of our three most vocal "leaders" left alive (Andrew and Eli being the other two) seems, if anything, to count against him--perhaps he was the Guardian chosen to stick his neck out, stir up trouble in the camp, and sow division between those who might organize us against the assassins. Thus, Arsene, I think your time has come.
    And if, God willing, we survive the night...Rose, the game is up.

    (OoC: my Internet has been beyond flaky lately-I'm having to type this on an iPhone, which isn't much fun-which explains my lack of talking lately. Oh, and it's paperwriting season over here in Gradstudentland...)
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    31 hours passed between my nomination of Madoc and Seth's nomination of Arsène.  If I had been right about Madoc being a Guardian, I would have expected the other Guardian at least (if Madoc was tied up) to step in sooner and protectively nominate an innocent and not risk that a Guardian would be the only nominee.

    If Arséne is in fact a Guardian, this would suggest that Seth, who nominated him is innocent and Dai, by elimination, is the other Guardian.  Or perhaps Seth is playing a deceptive game and is himself a Guardian.  Or Seth and Dai are the Guardians, and we're faced with two innocent nominees.

    Or perhaps Arsène and I are in cahoots.  But in that case, wouldn't I just go ahead and vote against Madoc?  As it is, I need to think about this more. I'm unsure who to vote against.
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    On the other hand, if the Guardians are Seth and Madoc, then, except for the delay in Seth's nomination of Arsène, they've behaved exactly as I would expect them to behave. Drat. Drat, drat, and drat.

    [ 27. November 2010, 01:43: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
     
    Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
     
    Seth was delayed by a number of factors quite uncommon in most deserts, but a feature of this one: man flu, chatting with ck and think in the cafe and the utter disappointment that I sat through an hour and half of I'm A Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here without Gillian fainting once, which sent me to bed early.

    I vote to lynch Arsene
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    Right.  I've agonized all weekend.  I've reread the verbatim reports of goings-on in our benighted Camp Sarastro.  I've tried to apply a probabilistic analysis (to no great success).

    I've come up with one reason for Seth (on the Seth/Madoc hypothesis) to have delayed his nomination of Arsène: he may have been waiting for someone else to nominate someone else, so he wouldn't have to look too obvious protecting Madoc.

    On the other hand, Madoc was the first to nominate someone.  And Seth nominated someone early on when two other innocents were already nominated.  Neither of those seem particularly like the actions of Guardians trying to stay inconspicuous.

    Arsène as he himself acknowledges looks terribly guilty, especially (to me) in his opposition to Eli from the very beginning.  (Although it all could be a case of terrible luck and poor judgement.)

    Nevertheless, I can't shake the suspicion whispering "Seth/Madoc" to me.  So I'm going to leave the final decision in the hands of Dai and Smudgie.

    I vote to lynch Lieutenant Owain D. R. Madoc, 24th Regiment of Foot.

    [ 28. November 2010, 18:08: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
     
    Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
     
    We seem to working on the principle that there are only two guardians. I suppose that if that's so then I'd better vote for the one I think is almost certainly a guardian. Arsene Beauregard.
     
    Posted by Smudgie (# 2716) on :
     
    One thing is certain - what must not be hung at the end of this round is the vote! Madoc I find extremely suspicious on one specific ground - his specific befriending of Rose. It is a good ploy by a guardian to link with another player. Possibly an innocent building of role, but possibly not. But one thing is certain - a hung vote is a greater risk to our ultimate survival than a hung townsperson. I too have been unconvinced by Arsene's verbal outpourings and believe him to be perfectly capable of producing a flurry of words and manipulative theories to cover his own tracks pretty convincingly. Maybe not convincingly enough though.

    I too will vote for Arsene
     
    Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
     
    Aaargh!!! Just online for ten minutes I hasten to my trusted friends in the desert and what do I see?
    I'm dead.
    SMUDGIE! How could you?
    I vote for Seth, just for the record.
    Now, let me see.
    Where is that death scene I left with the Divine Cat before I left? Hold on a second.
     
    Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
     
    Arsène had withdrawn to his tent for a short respite. A mob, tired and wary from all its past failures but determined nonetheless had decided that he must die. He was almost convinced himself. Alas he knew, it would not help. Now they were deliberating how to kill him and had put a guard outside the tent. Arsène was resigned to his fate but slightly apprehensive of pain.

    He poured himself some wine and sang wearily: Chevaliers de la table ronde,
    goûtons voir si le vin est bon!
    Ah, his life had not been wasted. Wine and song! As to the „women“ bit - to his regret Rose had never even deigned to turn down his invitation to a moonlight walk in the dunes, let alone accept it. Women - what a sex!

    With the heat and a few glasses he became drowsy. Sleep came not refreshingly, but with weird dreams. He found himself turned into a scarabaeus sacer, rolling and rolling a big ball uphill on a dune whence it kept slipping from his legs to roll to the bottom again. He climbed down and laboriously started all over. Was that all there was to life?

    Arsène never noticed the merciful hand that discreetly slipped through the flap in the canvas and poured a few drops into his bottle ....

    He rolled over. Fear hit him now. He could barely stand the incertitude. Would they hang him? Shoot? Starve him? Stone him with cotton balls? He rose from his camp bed with a creak (bed or bones?), poured some more wine and pondered – people were murdered left right and centre, others were lynched and yet it seemed that no one was ever guilty!

    The wine tasted funny. He suddenly became very tired again and had an urge to sleep. He slipped from his chair as we was humming for the last time:

    Si je meurs je veux qu'on m'enterre
    dans la cave où il y a bon vin.
    Les deux pieds contre la muraille
    Et la tête sous le robinet.

    As he hit the ground his eyes closed and his mouth opened. „Beauregard, ye fools, not Beauregarde,“ he whispered.

    Arsène was quiet forever. The camp gave a little sigh of relief.
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
    Rose shakes sand out of her shoes,

    How could Arsène not remember that walk in the sandy moonlight? She had quietly walked up to him and beckoned him out into the dunes. How else did Arsène think she had gotten that sand in her shoes, anyway? Sheesh, a girl tries to be discreet about her sandy walks with dashing lieutenants, and all she gets is forgotten. Hmmph.
     
    Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
     
    Arsène Beauregard 4 votes
    Lt Madoc 1 vote
    Mr Seth (who officially wasn't actually nominated, but no matter) 1 vote.

    Arsène is lynched. He was a citizen.
     
    Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
     
    The heat is waning and the sun has started to set over Camp Sarastro. Everything seems strangely silent as the stars begin to come out.

    Suddenly, the sky is rent by what is apparently a giant lightning strike, although there is no rain to be seen. The survivors look up in wonder and fear to see a giant chariot descending from the heavens, drawn by four giant jewelled scarabs. As it alights before the entrance to the tomb, an attendant runs up dressed in a ceremonial scarlet headdress and robe and sets down a ruby-studded bowl of milk. It is the Amun-Rouge-Ra the red cat goddess herself.

    "You were warned," she says.
    "Accursed be the one who disturbs the sleep of his majesty.
    The King shall sleep in peace.
    The curse has come to pass. The Guardians of Senkhet have taken control of Camp Sarastro.
    "
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Sylvander:
    Chevaliers de la table ronde,
    goûtons voir si le vin est bon!

    Knights of the round table,
    Let us taste and see if the wine is good!
    quote:
    Si je meurs je veux qu'on m'enterre
    dans la cave où il y a bon vin.
    Les deux pieds contre la muraille
    Et la tête sous le robinet.

    If I die I want to be buried
    In the cellar where there is good wine.
    Two feet against the wall,
    And head under the tap.
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    Doctor Rose Autenrieth huddled in the teatent with Miss Hyacinth Smudgeson.  She was glad her faith in Arsène Beauregard had been justified.  She was sorry she had lost faith in Eli Abrahams and switched from defending him (as she had been doing from the start) to defending Miss Smudgeson on that fatal night.  She had defended Miss Smudgeson last night, too, finally meeting with success.

    Madoc, Seth, and Dai, Guardians.  So all her vote-agonizing today had made little difference, although she had the satisfaction of knowing she had at last (but too late) successfully named a Guardian.  She tried to distract herself with remembering moonlight sandy walks, and realized she was confused.  Had it been the Frenchman or the Lieutenant with whom she had promenaded?

    "More tea, please," she whispered, hoarsely.  She raised her cup in a sad, final toast to the Innocents of Camp Sarastro.  Scarabs began to crawl under the tent walls.
     
    Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
     
    [Hover, hover]
    How nice to know you were not a murderess!
    Enjoy your tea! What happens to the survivors - will the Guardians slaughter you all?

    [hovers off]
     
    Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
     
    Seth untied his camels and sent them off free into the desert. He wrapped his head in a scarf leaving only his eyes visible. He knew it was time to claim the victory. The Guardians had won the day and the King would rest peacefully. The Kings spirit moved on the air in approval and Seth's eyes glowed with the heat of it.

    Now only one small matter remained: a tale of two ladies. Seth made his way to the tent where they had gathered. Upon reaching the tent he paused to summon the dead King's spirit and gather a persuasive case. Scrab beetles began to crawl out of the sand from underneath his feet and crawled under the flaps of the tent. Someone screamed, 'I'm an innocent, get me out of here!'. A pack of jackals circles the camp and bayed for blood and a lone vulture spun overhead in anticipatory excitement. Seth entered the tent.......

    'Dear ladies, what an unexpected surprise. I bring you tidings from a mighty King long dead, whose spirit seeks rest and who longs for Guardians to care for his eternal repose. I have in my hand a bowl of Amun Rouge Ra's favourite cat chews. All you must do is make a choice.

    Your first choice is this: eat the catnip infused holy cat chew and join the ranks of the immortal and indestructible Guardians and spend the rest of your days in the pleasant service of your king out here in the desert; or...

    Your second choice is this: be slowly eaten by scarabs, jackals and a vulture and die here in the tent of ungodliness.

    Muuuuhahahahahah! I know it's a hard decision, but now tell me; what will your decision be?!'

    Seth stood and waited and refused the offer of a cup of tea while they thought about it.

    'Dear ladies, ' he said, 'I ,ay be immortal, but I won't wait for ever. Make your choice!'

    *Thank the gods we didn't have to make this offer to the priest; he has an allergen to cat nip.

    [ 29. November 2010, 15:18: Message edited by: fletcher christian ]
     
    Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
     
    Dai wasn't sure what Seth was up to, but in the mean time he was busy in Whisker's tent faking details in Whisker's diary and maps. Nobody would find King Senkhet's tomb again. The King and his treasure would rest safe from the eyes of the curious and the profane (like that heretic young Whisker). The tomb would remain undisturbed. Nothing good ever came from disturbing tombs.

    I think we were lucky to be honest. I thought we were attracting attention to ourselves by all voting for a lynching in the first round, but Eli then decided that some of the guardians must have voted for a no lynching. (Personally, I would have agreed with him if I hadn't known better.) Also, we were fortunate to kill off the detective in the first round.
     
    Posted by AristonAstuanax (# 10894) on :
     
    Lieutenant Madoc threw off his heavy jacket; the brilliant white robes of a Guardian shone in the moonlight, his gold bracer catching the glint of a distant fire.

    Tonight. The final victory of the Guardians is at hand!

    The contingent of men loyal to him met him outside of the camp. Some of them were veterans of the Great War with grudges to settle against the profligacy of their captain, while others were simply seeking the wealth hidden in the tomb. Madoc, of course, had no patience for those who would defile what they had been entrusted to guard; happily, the poison that now ran through their veins wouldn't be taking effect for a few more hours . . .

    The Captain was already dead; the expression on his face was remarkably similar to that of Lord Whiskers—a sudden shock at seeing a figure from the ancient days come to life, aiming a very deadly longbow arrow straight at his chest. The other officers had met similar fates; Dai was quite effective with his crossbow, and Madoc wasn't sure he really wanted to know what Seth and his knife had gotten up to.

    Owain drew his sword, bringing his men to attention. A forward thrust into the air, and the company began its advance.

    The Welshmen of Camp Sarastro never stood a chance. The attack came suddenly; by the time anyone realized what was happening, they had been mown down by machine gun fire. The Curse came quickly for them; the unearthly scarabs would deal with the bodies.

    Moving quickly, Lieutenant Madoc ordered his men to spread out and deal with the camp followers who were attempting to flee to safety, leaving only a small platoon behind in the camp to mop up. He had complete faith in his men; try as they might, the Curse of Senkhet would be fulfilled.

    Owain remembered the oath his father and grandfather had made him take as a youth. Protecting the pharaoh, in both life and in death, had been the solemn duty of his ancestors for uncounted generations. Lord Whiskers knew exactly what the Curse was; anyone who had seen the entrance to the tomb would be struck by the statues of powerful warriors in white and gold, dedicated to destroying any who might disturb their master. Now, it was time for the Curse to be fulfilled.

    None were to be left alive who might disturb the pharaoh's tomb.

    None.

    An explosion from the camp knocked some of his men to the ground; Lieutenant Madoc was glad to see that the explosives he had placed had gone off as planned. Striding forward through the carnage, he at last reached the tea tent, the swarms of scarab beetles parting before him.

    Already, Seth was making an offer of the Sacred Catnip to the worthy enemies of the Guardians. The sound of gunfire continued to echo through the valley as his men finished their grim work.

    Owain drew and cocked his pistol. Even if they wouldn't take the Catnip (trust me, ladies, Take The Catnip!), Lieutenant Madoc had some sympathy and honor. Though his oaths forbade any who opposed him to be left alive, they didn't say anything about sparing his victims the jackals . . .
     
    Posted by AristonAstuanax (# 10894) on :
     
    (Side note: the above posts are greatly enhanced by the "Danse Bacchanale" from Samson et Delilah)

    We made a few tactical errors early on that paid off amazingly well—we weren't planning on voting as a bloc in the first round, but, once we did, we pretty well went with the "look at people who didn't vote to lynch!" strategy.
    And it worked.
    For much of the rest of the game, our basic strategy (or at least mine, as a Guardian) was to keep people from noticing us by pitting parts of the camp against one another. Rose, you should have never tried to save Eli; he was far too useful as a distraction for us to lynch him. We/I also had great fun trying to pit Eli against Arséne against Andrew; throw in one little aspersion against one of them, and watch the fur fly!
    It was a struck of luck, really, that I was able to rase the specter of the defector at exactly the time when it could be used to keep the dwindling numbers of innocents divided. It wasn't until people started to habitually disbelieve Eli that we killed him; if he wasn't dividing the camp any longer, he was useless to us.
    Well. It was great fun killing you all off. Now then, ladies, I believe there's some catnip for you; I would truly hate for our moonlit walks to be at an end, Miss Rose.
     
    Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
     
    [hover, hover]

    Machine guns mowing down people ... [Eek!]
    And there I was thinking WE rather enjoyed being mafia killers at the time [Smile]

    quote:
    Originally posted by AristonAstuanax:
    I would truly hate for our moonlit walks to be at an end, Miss Rose.

    Aaaaah! [Mad] Murderer! Traitor! Liar! This takes the biscuit! Woman snatcher! [Mad]
    Dear Divine Kittie-Cat, can I have a return ticket to re-incarnation, please? Five minutes will suffice.


    [hover, hover]
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    Never! Never will I betray the memory of my innocent comrades by eating your accursed catnip! Come along Miss Smudgeson. Stand aside Mr Seth, Lieutenant Madoc.

    Rose tucked Miss Smudgeson's hand under her arm and stalked out of the tent, into the desert where the jackals waited. A deadly scorpion scuttled towards the women. The rest is silence.
     
    Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
     
    Pity, the Guardians are a bit male dominated for a group with eternal membership.
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    Played like a violin string. [Frown]  

    I would be interested to know if any of our dead comrades pegged any of the Guardians after your death.  I regretfully note that Eli suspected Madoc, but I didn't go along with him then.  And El Greco nominated Seth, but I'm not sure if that was anything more than random luck.

    Strategy

    Everything I thought I knew about how to detect Mafia has been shattered.  The Guardians played a blunt strategy:  first to nominate, all voting for lynching first round.  So much for the idea that Mafia would use evasive tactics.  Think Mafia will be talkative (Madoc)?  There were Arsène, Eli, and me being equally talkative.  Think Mafia will be quiet (Seth)?  There were Smudgie and Papagena being even quieter.  Think Mafia will throw suspicion on Masons (Madoc suggesting the Defector)?  There was Arsène opposing Eli from the start.

    Conclusions about other players:  we'll never be able to detect Banner Lady or El Greco as Mafia:  too erratic.  We'll never be able to detect CuppaT or Smudgie: they're naturally quiet.  Sylvander has a natural excuse as well for being quiet next round: "look at how much I spoke last time, and how it turned out." Eliab also will be hard to detect as a Mafia member: he wasn't 100% right this time, so misreasonings he may make as a Mafia member can't necessarily be chalked up to deliberate deception.

    Rules

    I liked that there was no limit on the number of nominations.  (The game CuppaT linked to had a limit, and it allowed us Mafia to trap the Citizens at the end).

    I would prefer for the roles in play to be stated explicitly.  We wasted a lot of time on the Defector chimera, and I think it played a large part in the Citizens' loss.  On the other hand, I'm OK with not knowing the numbers of each role.

    I liked defense running concurrently with nominations, but I'd like for defense and wrangling to be allowed to continue into the voting phase.  If someone is nominated late, as it stands now they don't have much of a chance for defense.

    I'm unsure about not declaring victory until the Guardians have an absolute majority.  Seems to me once the Guardians are equal to the Citizens, they're guaranteed a win.  They can hang any daytime vote, and, even if there's a doctor, they're bound to hit on the doctor eventually and then they'll have the absolute majority.  On the other hand, playing to parity instead of absolute majority would have deprived me of my two successes (defending Miss Smudgeson and identifying Lieutenant Madoc), useless as they may have been.  And, in the game linked to by CuppaT, Teufelchen let us have that last round to play to absolute majority, solely for the purpose of messing with our victim's minds [Two face] .  So I guess this is more of a mathematical comment than a firm preference for a rule change.

    Next...

    Thank you very much to la vie en rouge for running the game, to our Circus hosts for reading the whole thing, to all the Citizens for your valiant efforts to stamp out evil, and to the Guardians for being excellent opponents.

    Hosts, can we have another round?  Players, anyone care to run it?  I'd rather play, but I'm willing to run it if needed.
     
    Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
     
    Indeed, praise is due to the great cat in the sky for an enjoyable game
     
    Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
    Thank you very much to la vie en rouge for running the game

    Thirded.
    And, indeed, thank you to everyone for taking part in the game.
     
    Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
     
    What a fantastic game. Well played - indeed flawlessly played - the Guardians!

    I'm still unsure whether sacrificing McBride on day 2 was a sound move (yes, it was a sacrifice - I never thought he was guilty). It made sense on the figures to clear two innocents, and it worked as a controversy-generator (I had nothing on day 1 and we badly needed something to make people react if we were going to get any clues at all), but mostly I suggested it because it was in character for Eli to see everything as a transaction. And it backfired terribly by provoking Banner Lady's accusation of me - which essentially lost us the game. Mea culpa, to a large degree.

    I was absolutely convinced that she was guilty when she did that (because, seriously, what the fuck would an innocent person be thinking of, to nominate a known mason?), and that screw up destroyed all cohesion amongst the innocents.

    Well played to AristonAstuanax at that point for some magnificent stirring - although I knew you were guilty immediately Banner Lady was innocent (one thing I can do is spot a stirrer). But, foolishly, I thought that Slyvander (who picked up on what seemed to me a clearly insane nomination) was a better chance.

    Fletcher christian I was always a bit suspicious of, but there were always more plausible candidates. Dafyd had me completely fooled throughout. I think that even if we had lynched Madoc on Day 4, that being the first clear clue the Guardians let slip, we'd never have come around to suspecting Dai.

    A thoroughly deserved win.


    Rules

    I think that having a combined Defence/Nomination phase, no talking at night, and a (not especially enforced or observed) 'get on and vote' policy during voting all help the mob - not that they needed it here. The citizens only win by people talking, and any restriction on talking limits the opportunities for the guilty to give themselves away.

    Compulsory voting and absolute majorities to lynch worked well (they don't always if there are slow players - which didn't apply here). Unlimited nominations are definitely right.

    Thanks to vie for running the game. I'll now always think of you as the Red Cat Goddess.


    If we have enough people interested in a second game, I'd quite like to try running one. But I'll await confirmation from the hosts on that.

    [ 30. November 2010, 15:31: Message edited by: Eliab ]
     
    Posted by CuppaT (# 10523) on :
     
    For my part, I suspected AR especially. More than that, I knew she was a Guardian. She acted just like the game before. And when she Aaaarghed me, like I did before when she won, well, I just grrrred in my heart. I swear, you just can't be right even most of the time.

    The other one I was sure about after demise was Madoc. He and Rose, I thought, were in cahoots on purpose, in view and behind the scenes. It would have been a fairly good strategy because it goes against expectations.

    Then again, psychology does not seem to work well for any of us.

    I acted like a cat. 'Tis my only defense. And I really liked Leetle Masha's link!

    Could we wait perhaps until after Christmas for a new game? It does rather take over one's life, you know. I am not on the Ship half so much as at Mafia time. During some of the suspenseful parts I was checking quite frequently. And those Nights were very long indeed. My whole family was involved with this game, and it was a subject at the greater family Thanksgiving time, too.

    I like this style of game, but another fun one, too, was the year Mafia was one person who killed off people one at a time when they posted on another thread. As I happened to be the killer and was never suspected till the end, it was fun. But again, it did require a lot of time. Because of the rules, though, I posted then more than ever.

    Good Game!
    CuppaT
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    I also liked the compulsory voting rule.

    [Big Grin] I take it as a compliment that CuppaT thinks I played this time (Citizen) just as I did last time (Mafia). It means my camouflage-when-Mafia skills are in good order [Snigger] (not, though, that they're of any use to me when spotting other Mafia, alas).
     
    Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Eliab:
    Dafyd had me completely fooled throughout. I think that even if we had lynched Madoc on Day 4, that being the first clear clue the Guardians let slip, we'd never have come around to suspecting Dai.

    Autenreith Road did cast suspicion on me. I don't know how thoroughly I convinced her by becoming talkative, but I ducked any nominations.
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    Alas, you convinced me completely, and by precisely the way I worried about: by voicing the reason for my suspicion, I give the Mafia the tool for knowing what would alleviate it. But everything you said was so darn believable, even including that you'd been more talkative than I'd initially noticed, and your description of your initial misconceptions that had kept you from saying anything, and your careful segmenting of the suspects into groups. For all I know, those were your real initial misconceptions.
     
    Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on :
     
    That was a very interesting game; and I have a confession to make. Eli, you are so damn clever, all I wanted to achieve was to snip your strings so that you weren't running the whole show. Of course, I snipped my own in the process! No wonder I looked guilty.

    But I agree that one person being able to be given two roles does muddy the waters rather a lot. What do others think of the Red Cat Goddess's innovation there?

    I don't mind not knowing how many mafia there are; but did multiple role giving mess things a bit too much for the citizens to have any chance?
     
    Posted by El Greco (# 9313) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Banner Lady:
    But I agree that one person being able to be given two roles does muddy the waters rather a lot. What do others think of the Red Cat Goddess's innovation there?

    I don't mind not knowing how many mafia there are; but did multiple role giving mess things a bit too much for the citizens to have any chance?

    I don't think it matters. My observation from the previous games is that one can't use reason to deduce who's mafia and who isn't. One could make plausible assumptions about who is guilty and who is innocent, and one could make eloquent arguments that sound logical, but those arguments won't actually be dictated by pure reason.

    So, since you can't know who is who, you might as well vote at random. And the fact that you can't know who is who, is the reason that led me to make my character rather colorful. Since we can't win based on reason, we might as well enjoy it and hope that luck will be with our side.

    Having a player that could turn to the Dark Side made things a bit more colorful, and it perplexed those who believe that there can be drawn logical conclusions based on the players' behavior, but it didn't affect players that don't believe that.

    The way things evolved, I could swear Eli was a criminal mastermind, because such bad luck (and this is an interesting choice of word, since Eliab's points were very plausible) seemed very unlikely. Yet he was whiter than snow.

    I had a hunch about Seth, but hunches usually don't mean much. And even when I was right, I had to vote against someone other than the Seth I had nominated, if I wanted my vote to have any meaningful result, because of the influence some other players had on the rest.

    Lt. Madoc and Dai Mortal, for some reason, confused my radars completely, so I preferred to ignore them when I made my calculations.

    But generally speaking, I knew the mafia could easily win unless they made big mistakes. I was a bit surprised by the bad record we managed to get.

    When the hostess notified me that I was going to be a citizen, I went [Waterworks]

    So, no I don't think it mattered much, and I'll be delighted to see even more novelties next time the game is on.

    [ 30. November 2010, 20:01: Message edited by: El Greco ]
     
    Posted by Hart (# 4991) on :
     
    Good game, all. Thanks, vie, for running it! I enjoyed it even though I died...
     
    Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
    For all I know, those were your real initial misconceptions.

    They were my real initial misconceptions. For that matter, I think my analysis was genuinely how I'd have been thinking if I'd been innocent.
     
    Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
     
    Big thank you to l.v.e.r. for running the game! I enjoyed it muchly and spent far more time on the Ship than usual.
    And congratulations to Dai, Seth and Madoc who played a perfect game!
    The three Guardians all registered as inconspicuous on my radar (even though I once felt Dai was agreeing with me in a funny way) - but so did some of the quieter innocents.

    Unlike the IRL version of the game there is nothing to be gained by keeping quiet and observing players talking (blushing when they lie - always gives me away [Hot and Hormonal] )

    As for lynching a known mason - it was a mistake partly brought on by the unclarity of the rules (double roles are not conducive imo). The more roles there are the more complicated the rules become and the more likely one is to omit necessary clarifications at the start (e.g. what happens if Mafia hit a veteran protected by the doctor - that is important info for the doctor and for Mafia and may not easily be imparted later without disclosing additional information). When I occasionally test-play games with game authors they usually proceed by starting with a simple version and step by step complicating the rules rather than the other way round. It is quite difficult. (And don't take it as personal criticism, L.v.e.r. - just shsring thoughts for future games).

    Forgive me, but I still do not undertand your behaviour, Eli - your arguments seem to me erratic and illogically jumping to far-reaching conclusions even now that it made me switch positions and assume a mason-defector - a folly. This issue took much of our attention and killed a known mason.

    I'd be curious to know on what bases the Guardians decided whom to kill by night.
    And whether you co-ordinated your daytime voting or left it to individual preference.

    And yes, I am certainly going to talk less next time. I don't think I even once publicly suspected, let alone nominated a Guardian, so there was not much useful thinking from the only Frog in the camp.
     
    Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
     
    Chronicles of the All-Seeing Red Cat Goddess / Post-mortem:

    The Guardians of Senkhet were AristonAstuanax, fletcher christian and Dafyd.

    Herrick was Hercule Poirot.

    Autenrieth Road was the doctor.

    Eliab, Hart and Smudgie were masons. Hart was additionally the miller.

    Everyone else was a standard issue citizen.

    *I thought at least half of you should be citizens – I thought it was interesting that you spent so long discussing roles that I hadn’t allocated, because you took for granted the ones that you knew were there. Three of you were masons, but you kind of forgot that this wasn’t a given. The fact that there were masons in the camp (and also a miller, who I guess most of you didn’t think I’d be cruel enough to give out), meant that other roles were numerically less likely. I was hoping for some interesting results from the mason-miller, a player who some of you definitely knew to be innocent and someone else would believe to be definitely guilty, but in the end the early departure of Hercule Poirot meant that this didn’t play out. Instead it left you all pondering the possibility of dual roles, which I hadn’t been thinking of (Teufelchen had already done this in the mediaeval game).*

    The first night saw the assassination of Archie Whisker, a non-playing character I had invented for this specific purpose (in my mighty spreadsheet, I had his role down as “corpse” [Two face] ) I think we all seem to agree that getting done in before you’ve had any chance to play is a bit rubbish so this seemed like the fairest thing to me.

    In a departure from the way this game is most commonly played around here, the mafia played an aggressive strategy from the start, which worked out well for them. The first nomination, for Rose Autenrieth, came from the mob, and then AR decided to make a second one, feeling a bit lonely in the dock all on her own. The mob then tried to push for a lynching, and in what was apparently a rather unexpected move, all voted in favour of lynching Professor McBride. This means that Eliab’s plan to look among the no-lynching voters wasn’t a bad idea in itself, but it was unfortunately wrong, and it suited the Guardians to play along with it. The rest of you were less certain about lynching so early and no one got lynched. (At this point, I found out – as Sylvander’s proxy – that he was playing a rather idiosyncratic strategy all of his own, which he can tell you about himself, if he wants to…)

    On the second night, Herrick found out that Professor McBride was innocent, before returning to his tent and promptly getting murdered, ensuring that the citizens would receive no more detectivey information. I’m sure the mob will set me straight if I’m wrong about this, but so early in the game I suspect this was more luck than judgment. [Biased] At this point, Eli Abrahams decided that McBride should swing (ironically the only person Hercule Poirot had found innocent), the mafia tried a nomination of their own, and Arsène Beauregard tried to string up Eli Abrahams just for kicks. This brought the masons out of the woodwork. The vote was a landslide and McBride bought the farm.

    Next night, the imam got it (Miss Rose was once again staked outside Eli’s tent), and revealed the presence of the masons for certain. There was a veritable flurry of nominations, but in the end the vote was another landslide, with even the condemned woman (Lady Bernadine, whose ear had been poisoned by Lt Madoc’s suggestion that Eli was a defector) voting for her own execution.

    Moving onwards and upwards, the Guardians next proved their hatred of moustaches by bumping off Tavish McCallum, while Rose was once again guarding Eli. Suspicions abounded, Miss Smudge wanted to know why Andrew hated the masons so much, Arsène carried on suspecting Papagena, which led to Eli suspecting Arsène, and Andrew was right about Seth. Unfortunately no one else believed him and he got lynched.

    The following night, the Guardians did away with Eli – ironically the first time that the doctor hadn’t been protecting him. AR was looking out for Smudgie instead (at least securing the supply of hot tea would be maintained). In the following nominations, only innocents were nominated, and the hieroglyphics were effectively on the wall.

    Nonetheless, the following night, a little honour was saved (or the agony was prolonged, depending on how you look at it) when Rose rescued Miss Smudge from the clutches of the mob. Since the rules state that the mafia must outnumber the surviving citizens to win the game (there were now 3 of each), I decided to make them wait to do the victory dance. Lynching Arsène finally pushed them over the line.

    Moderating was an interesting experience for me – knowing the whole truth and looking at my screen yelling “you’re wrong wrong wrongity WRONG!!” Hope you enjoyed it, anyway. And well played by a very canny mob.

    (If someone wants to start a new game, the Red Cat would like to play)
     
    Posted by Amorya (# 2652) on :
     
    I've been playing a lot of Werewolf lately, both in real life and on another forum. (It's the same game but with a werewolf theme.) I would be up for moderating one, if people would like. Alternatively, if someone else wants to, I'll join in the next [Smile]

    Amorya
     
    Posted by AristonAstuanax (# 10894) on :
     
    I was thinking about hosting a game even before we got started with this one; however, it does seem like a good idea to wait until the new year-after Christmas and End Of Term stuff is over.
    And yes, taking down Hercule was more than just dumb luck-we thought that he would soon be on to us and had good ideas. Best to take him out early, before anyone starts believing them.
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    But how on earth did you suspect Herrick of being Poirot, in just one round?
     
    Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
    But how on earth did you suspect Herrick of being Poirot, in just one round?

    AristonAstuanax may correct me, but I don't think we thought he was the detective. Rather, he was clever enough to be dangerous and was keeping quiet. The other person we thought about was Papagena, also keeping quiet.
     
    Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on :
     
    Ah. Rereading what AristonAstuanax said I see that now.
     
    Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on :
     
    For the record, anyone is welcome to host a new game whenever they want (although it's probably best to only have one going at once [Biased] ) It will be best to start a new thread though, both for tidiness and publicity.

    iF
    Circus host
     
    Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
    For the record, anyone is welcome to host a new game whenever they want

    In which case...
     
    Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on :
     
    But please feel free to continue discussing this game on this thread.
     
    Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
    The mob then tried to push for a lynching, and in what was apparently a rather unexpected move, all voted in favour of lynching Professor McBride. This means that Eliab’s plan to look among the no-lynching voters wasn’t a bad idea in itself, but it was unfortunately wrong, and it suited the Guardians to play along with it.

    My mistake, then.

    I have never understood why people so often vote for 'no lynching' on day 1. Essentially, it's a vote to decline the first move and start the real game one player down. Why? The town needs to lynch to win, and gets so few chances to do that, that passing one up seems to me to be obviously bad.

    Whereas I do see a good reason for the Mafia to join in with a mistaken consensus not to lynch - it's inconspicuous, and the Mafia don't need to lynch to win anyway.

    But ( [brick wall] ) I've played often enough to know that whatever I think of the strategy, loads of citizens will always abstain on the first day - so it was an unsafe assumption. Obviously.


    One question: why did the Guardians even try for a kill on the last night? They were safe from lynching, and Dafyd had obviously worked out that with three Guardians left, the only thing that could possibly stop them was a miraculous doctor/veteren combo that night (or possibly a doctor/vigilante combo the next time with no lynching) - because he said so on the thread. Was it that you thought that Smudgie, as a Mason, wasn't going to be a veteren as well?
     
    Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by Eliab:
    One question: why did the Guardians even try for a kill on the last night? They were safe from lynching, and Dafyd had obviously worked out that with three Guardians left, the only thing that could possibly stop them was a miraculous doctor/veteren combo that night - because he said so on the thread. Was it that you thought that Smudgie, as a Mason, wasn't going to be a veteren as well?

    We didn't know that the citizens were going to try to vote anyone off. (If we hadn't tried to kill anyone that would have been a clear signal that voting for someone wouldn't work. Although, now I think of it, nobody apart from us would have been able to tell that it wasn't the Doctor being clever.) Also, we wanted to get it over and done with. Also, we were the guardians. Killing someone in the night is what we do.
     


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