Thread: Circus: Papabile betting pool Board: Limbo / Ship of Fools.


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Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
I'm going to run a parimutuel betting pool for papabiles here. Everybody who wishes to participate gets 25 SoDs (Ship of Fools dollars) in hand, virtually. Rules:
  1. To enter the betting, a player must suggest one (and only one) new papabile name. This must be a realistic possibility (a real living human person, male, and a baptized Roman Catholic in good standing). This papabile then becomes available for all players to bet on.
  2. The player must also place 5 SoDs on the papabile they have suggested to enter the betting. These 5 SoDs are fixed for that player, and cannot be removed till the end of the game. Thus every papabile has at least 5 SoDs to their name.
  3. The player can distribute their remaining money (20 SoDs, or less, initially) on every papabile in any manner they want. These bets can be changed by posting here at any time till betting ends. The last posted bet counts, if the total adds up, otherwise it is invalid. There is no "fraction" of SoDs (e.g., 1.50 SoD), only whole number SoDs (1,2,3,... SoDs) can be placed.
  4. Betting ends whenever I post that it has, or at the time that I will announce later. Any bets placed after that do not count. (I expect that I will call a stop at the beginning of the conclave, though if I am following proceedings "live" I might call an end only at the appearance of white smoke.)
In addition, players can get extra SoDs by donating to the Floating Fund. They have to post on this thread the order reference of their donation (it comes up after the donation, copy and paste it). They also have to mention how many SoDs they will get, where: 1 Ł = 1 SoD, 1.5 $ (US, Canada, Oz) = 1 SoD, 1.8 $ (NZ) = 1 SoD. Round the SoD amount to the nearest whole number. These donation SoDs can be freely bet on any papabile (like the initial 20 SoD).

I will try to give regular updates on the odds of all papabiles in the race. (There will be no commission, all SoDs in the pool will get "paid out".)

(Disclaimer: This is not a real betting pool. No real money will be paid out under any circumstances, either by Ship of Fools or by me (IngoB). Any donation made to the Floating Fund is strictly a donation, it leads to no rights for any actual returns. SoDs are no real currency, and this entire betting pool is purely virtual and for entertainment only. The "pay out" is simply a number of SoDs that indicates how well one has guessed, no more.)

If you need some inspiration on who may be a good papabile to suggest, take a look here, here, here or here.

---

I will make a start then. I will name

Cardinal Leonardo Sandri

as papabile to enter the betting. So he has my 5 SoD fixed, and since there is not other option till somebody else adds a papabile, I will add my 20 SoD as well.

Furthermore, I have just made a donation equivalent to 20 SoD to the Floating Fund (order reference: 2577142016). I will place those on Cardinal Sandri as well for now.

Hence currently betting stands at

Cardinal Leonardo Sandri - 45 SoD, odds 1-1

[ 13. May 2013, 10:46: Message edited by: Imaginary Friend ]
 
Posted by Mary LA (# 17040) on :
 
I have no interest in or success at any kind of gambling so this is probably my first and last attempt.

Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana, 25SoD
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Mary LA:
I have no interest in or success at any kind of gambling so this is probably my first and last attempt.
Don't worry, the only reason I'm using the gambling format is so that we all can back more than one papabile and we still find out who has made the best guess.

To demonstrate, I will now move 5 of my SoD onto Turkson, and we get:

Cardinal Leonardo Sandri - 40 SoD, odds 1.75 - 1
Cardinal Peter Turkson - 30 SoD, odds 2.33 - 1

So if Turkson were to win, you would now get a pay out of 58.33 SoD (133% profit vs. 25 SoD invested), and I would get 11.67 SoD (74% loss vs. 45 SoD invested).
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
Bloody heck, as you can see I'm a also no gambler, I quoted decimal odds as fractional odds. Or something like that... But don't worry, I will get this sorted eventually. [Biased] Here's perhaps a better attempt:

Cardinal Leonardo Sandri - 40 SoD, odds 3-4
Cardinal Peter Turkson - 30 SoD, odds 1-3
 
Posted by Doublethink (# 1984) on :
 
Cardinal Baselios Cleemis - 25 SoDs
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
Really interesting choice, Doublethink. That would be something! A bit young though, perhaps?
  1. Cardinal Baselios Cleemis - 25 SoD, odds 14 - 5
  2. Cardinal Leonardo Sandri - 40 SoD, odds 11 - 8
  3. Cardinal Peter Turkson - 30 SoD, odds 13 - 6


[ 28. February 2013, 21:11: Message edited by: IngoB ]
 
Posted by Doublethink (# 1984) on :
 
He is the youngest Cardinal - my logic is that a) the church would benefit from a young energetic leader to tackle its problems b) assuming he became Cardinal this early on merit rather than ambition he must be good c) the next pope needs take the bullet and change the culture re clerical scandal and I think that will take a generation - and therefore he needs to serve for a generation.

Earnest of that would be to take the name Dismas - but I doubt he will.

(Oh and it would be a real celebration of the diversity within the Roman Catholic Church.)

[ 28. February 2013, 21:25: Message edited by: Doublethink ]
 
Posted by Leorning Cniht (# 17564) on :
 
I'll add Cardinal Marc Ouellet to the pool, with a total of 15 SoD, and put my other 10 SoD on Cardinal Sandri.
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
Marc Ouellet seems to be such a favourite... I will cautiously move 5 SoD to him as well from Sandri. Still puts him at 5-1, which would be bargain in the real world.
  1. Cardinal Baselios Cleemis - 25 SoD, odds 19 - 5
  2. Cardinal Marc Ouellet - 20 SoD, odds 5 - 1
  3. Cardinal Leonardo Sandri - 45 SoD, odds 5 - 3
  4. Cardinal Peter Turkson - 30 SoD, odds 3 - 1

 
Posted by PeteC (# 10422) on :
 
I will back Baseleos Cleemis with 18 SoD and Cardinal Ouellet with 7 SOD.

I thus proclaim my Indo-Canadian split.

Baseleos Cleemis is only 4 years younger than Karol Józef Wojtyła at his elevation. I agree with Doublethink.
 
Posted by Tukai (# 12960) on :
 
Almost all Australian Catholics would be very pleased to see the back of Cardinal George Pell, so I'll add him to the list. He's certainly ambitious, but if the other cardinals' opinion of him is like that of the some nuns I know who refer to his rule as the "Pell Pot regime", he'd be a long shot. So I'll have 10 SofD on him and my other 15 on Turkson.
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by PeteC:
I will back Baseleos Cleemis with 18 SoD and Cardinal Ouellet with 7 SOD.

I thus proclaim my Indo-Canadian split.

Baseleos Cleemis is only 4 years younger than Karol Józef Wojtyła at his elevation. I agree with Doublethink.
PeteC, as you can see in the OP, you have to suggest a new papabile and put at least 5 SoD on him. Hence I cannot accept your bet as is, I'm afraid. It should be easy enough to find another contender (we don't have so many entries yet), and you then can still split the free 20 SoD between these two if you like.
 
Posted by PeteC (# 10422) on :
 
George Alencherry of the Syro-Malabar Rite 9 SoD
Basilios Cleemis 9 SoD
Marc Ouellet of Canada 7SOD

I rather like chai.
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
Cool. I was at best dimly aware of the Syro-Malabar Catholic Church, now I know that she has two Cardinals. [Big Grin] Good to see Cardinal Pell, I'll think about backing him as a dark horse...
  1. Cardinal George Alencherry - 9 SoD, odds 161 - 9
  2. Cardinal Baselios Cleemis - 34 SoD, odds 4 - 1
  3. Cardinal Marc Ouellet - 27 SoD, odds 37 - 7
  4. Cardinal George Pell - 10 SoD, odds 16 - 1
  5. Cardinal Leonardo Sandri - 45 SoD, odds 25 - 9
  6. Cardinal Peter Turkson - 30 SoD, odds 25 - 9

 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
Sorry, Turkson also at 45 SoD above.
 
Posted by PeteC (# 10422) on :
 
Basilios Cleemis is of The Syro-Malankara rite..

The Latin Catholics don't have a Cardinal. This time. Yet.
 
Posted by Ricardus (# 8757) on :
 
5 dollars on Cardinal Joăo Braz de Aviz, prefect of the Congregation for Institutes of Consecrated Life and Societies of Apostolic Life, and former Archbishop of Brasília please.

5 dollars on Sandri and Ouellet too, please.
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
5 dollars on Cardinal Joăo Braz de Aviz, prefect of the Congregation for Institutes of Consecrated Life and Societies of Apostolic Life, and former Archbishop of Brasília please. 5 dollars on Sandri and Ouellet too, please.
Will do, but that leaves you with 10 SoD to spare (you get 25 SoD)...
 
Posted by Ricardus (# 8757) on :
 
Sure. I was waiting to see what other names came up first - if that's OK ...
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
Sure. I was waiting to see what other names came up first - if that's OK ...
That's perfectly fine. Though you can also always change your bet later, in any manner that you like.
  1. Cardinal George Alencherry - 9 SoD, odds 176 - 9
  2. Cardinal Baselios Cleemis - 34 SoD, odds 40 - 9
  3. Cardinal Joăo Braz de Aviz - 5 SoD, odds 36 - 1
  4. Cardinal Marc Ouellet - 32 SoD, odds 43 - 9
  5. Cardinal George Pell - 10 SoD, odds 35 - 2
  6. Cardinal Leonardo Sandri - 50 SoD, odds 19 - 7
  7. Cardinal Peter Turkson - 45 SoD, odds 28 - 9

 
Posted by Jon in the Nati (# 15849) on :
 
I thought gambling was illegal at Bushwood. Where have I been?
 
Posted by Hart (# 4991) on :
 
I'll open the bidding on Cardinal Scola, putting 10 on him; 10 on Turkson; 5 on Ouellet.
 
Posted by LeRoc (# 3216) on :
 
I'll start with 15 on Raymundo Damasceno Assis, 10 on Godfried Danneels.
 
Posted by fletcher christian (# 13919) on :
 
Paddy Power here in Ireland has Bono for next Pope at 1000/1. I kinda like them odds
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc:
I'll start with 15 on Raymundo Damasceno Assis, 10 on Godfried Danneels.
LeRoc, you can only suggest one additional papabile. And you then can only bet on that papabile and the other ones already on the list.
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
Finally, with Cardinal Scola we have an Italian (but there are plenty more Italians who have a shot!). I also show now a bunch more information (but have removed the totals). First, I show not only fractional odds, but also decimal odds, which I find easier to understand (basically per SoD in you get that many SoDs out). Second, I've added a "hedge bet". If you have not bet on that papabile and put this many SoD in, then you will at least recover 25 SoD on election. Third, I've added a "leader bet". This is simply one more than the current maximum bet on that papabile. Hence upping to that bet will mean you have the largest potential payout. Finally, I'm sorting the papabiles by (decimal) odds now.
  1. Cardinal Peter Turkson - odds: 17 - 6 (3.82), hedge: 8, leader: 26
  2. Cardinal Leonardo Sandri - odds: 16 - 5 (4.2), hedge: 7, leader: 36
  3. Cardinal Marc Ouellet - odds: 14 - 3 (5.68), hedge: 5, leader: 16
  4. Cardinal Baselios Cleemis - odds: 31 - 6 (6.18), hedge: 5, leader: 26
  5. Cardinal George Pell - odds: 20 - 1 (21), hedge: 2, leader: 11
  6. Cardinal Angelo Scola - odds: 20 - 1 (21), hedge: 2, leader: 11
  7. Cardinal George Alencherry - odds: 67 - 3 (23.33), hedge: 2, leader: 10
  8. Cardinal Joăo Braz de Aviz - odds: 41 - 1 (42), hedge: 1, leader: 6

 
Posted by Og: Thread Killer (# 3200) on :
 
5 on Luis Antonio Tagle

10 on Oullet

5 on Turkson

5 on Scola
 
Posted by Tukai (# 12960) on :
 
IngoB:
In Australia, that great land of gamblers, odds have usually been quoted as decimals in recent years, so thank you for doing so here. Makes it easier for those who have not spent a lifetime at the race track.
 
Posted by Gussie (# 12271) on :
 
On the grounds of being fairly young my choice is Peter Erdo. I'll have five on him, and then ten each on Turkson and Cleemis
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
Excellent new suggestions, as reflected in my change of portfolio: Sandri 15 (leader), Tagle 10 (leader), Turkson 8 (hedge), Erdő 7 (leader), Ouellet 5 (hedge). Just a reminder that you can get extra SoD by donating to the floating fund...
  1. Cardinal Peter Turkson - odds: 23 - 9 (3.56), hedge: 8, leader: 26
  2. Cardinal Marc Ouellet - odds: 9 - 2 (5.53), hedge: 5, leader: 16
  3. Cardinal Baselios Cleemis - odds: 5 - 1 (5.91), hedge: 5, leader: 26
  4. Cardinal Leonardo Sandri - odds: 23 - 3 (8.67), hedge: 4, leader: 16
  5. Cardinal Angelo Scola - odds: 49 - 3 (17.33), hedge: 2, leader: 11
  6. Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle - odds: 49 - 3 (17.33), hedge: 2, leader: 11
  7. Cardinal Péter Erdő - odds: 62 - 3 (21.67), hedge: 2, leader: 8
  8. Cardinal George Pell - odds: 25 - 1 (26), hedge: 2, leader: 11
  9. Cardinal George Alencherry - odds: 251 - 9 (28.89), hedge: 1, leader: 10
  10. Cardinal Joăo Braz de Aviz - odds: 51 - 1 (52), hedge: 1, leader: 6

 
Posted by Doublethink (# 1984) on :
 
I see Baselios is doing well [Smile]
 
Posted by PeteC (# 10422) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink:
I see Baselios is doing well [Smile]
Baselios is part of his title; Cleemis is his name in religion.
 
Posted by Triple Tiara (# 9556) on :
 
Good game IngoB.

5 on Gianfranco Cardinal Ravasi
15 on Angelo Cardinal Scola
5 on Marc Cardinal Ouellet
 
Posted by shamwari (# 15556) on :
 
I fail to understand the whole process.

But I am putting 25 on Ingo B for his ingenuity.
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by shamwari:
I fail to understand the whole process. But I am putting 25 on Ingo B for his ingenuity.
Thanks for that shamwari, but I would have to kill my wife first to become pope...

What you have to do is simple. Find a candidate that could become the next pope, which nobody has proposed yet. Currently 11 candidates have already been proposed, 10 you can find in my latest odds list, and Triple Tiara has just proposed Cardinal Ravasi. For ideas whom to propose, I put some links in the OP that talk about possible candidates, but you can also just go to the usual oddsmakers and look at their lists. For example, take the list from Paddy Power. Anybody on there with odds 80 - 1 or better will do. For example Cardinal Angelo Bagnasco has not been proposed here yet, has good odds from Paddy Power, and if you read the OP links, should be in with a good shot.

You must back your candidate with 5 SoDs minimum, always. That leaves you then with 20 SoDs to assign to any of the proposed papabiles, your own or any of the others. You can change your bet whenever you like, till I announce betting has closed. I keep track of the odds, i.e., the payout you get. Basically, you are betting against all other participants, so the money they lose goes to you, or vice versa, depending on who gets elected pope...
 
Posted by Dogwalker (# 14135) on :
 
OK, I'm in.

The Boston papers have elected Sean O'Malley already, so I'll start with 5 SoDs on him.

And 10 on Marc Ouelett ('m half French-Canadian, after all),
and 10 on Angelo Scola, for now.
 
Posted by Hart (# 4991) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by IngoB:
quote:
Originally posted by shamwari:
I fail to understand the whole process. But I am putting 25 on Ingo B for his ingenuity.
Thanks for that shamwari, but I would have to kill my wife first to become pope...
Not at all, you'd simply have to refrain from conjugal living.
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
Two new papabiles on the list. I'm following Triple Tiara's correct style for the Cardinals, but Baselios Cleemis is giving me some headaches. From the Vatican announcement, I derive the current style... but whether it is correct is a different matter.
  1. Peter Cardinal Turkson - odds: 13 - 4 (4.25), hedge: 7, leader: 26
  2. Marc Cardinal Ouellet - odds: 4 - 1 (5), hedge: 6, leader: 16
  3. Baselios Cleemis Cardinal Thottunkal - odds: 6 - 1 (7.05), hedge: 4, leader: 26
  4. Angelo Cardinal Scola - odds: 27 - 4 (7.75), hedge: 4, leader: 16
  5. Leonardo Cardinal Sandri - odds: 28 - 3 (10.33), hedge: 3, leader: 16
  6. Luis Antonio Cardinal Tagle - odds: 59 - 3 (20.67), hedge: 2, leader: 11
  7. Péter Cardinal Erdő - odds: 149 - 6 (25.83), hedge: 2, leader: 8
  8. George Cardinal Pell - odds: 30 - 1 (31), hedge: 1, leader: 11
  9. George Cardinal Alencherry - odds: 301 - 9 (34.44), hedge: 1, leader: 10
  10. Joăo Cardinal Braz de Aviz - odds: 61 - 1 (62), hedge: 1, leader: 6
  11. Seán Patrick Cardinal O'Malley - odds: 61 - 1 (62), hedge: 1, leader: 6
  12. Gianfranco Cardinal Ravasi - odds: 61 - 1 (62), hedge: 1, leader: 6

 
Posted by Doublethink (# 1984) on :
 
Re you restricting your pool to cardinals ? Or can we propose baptised RCs who are currently unordained ?
 
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink:
Re you restricting your pool to cardinals ? Or can we propose baptised RCs who are currently unordained ?
Why not? That would put Terry Wogan and me in the field!
 
Posted by TurquoiseTastic (# 8978) on :
 
Well OK then. Really I just want a chance to bet, but let me propose, on the grounds that popes used to come from religious orders rather than bishoprics sometimes (is that right?):

The Most Reverend Father Robert F. Prevost, OSA

But I'll put 10 SoD on Turkson and another 10 SoD on Scola please.
 
Posted by Leorning Cniht (# 17564) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by IngoB:
I'm following Triple Tiara's correct style for the Cardinals, but Baselios Cleemis is giving me some headaches.
As best I can tell, Thottunkal is his family name, Isaac is his baptismal name, Cleemis looks to be a titular surname that he assumed upon his consecration, and Baselios is a Christian name he assumed on being elected Catholicos. It appears to be something of a tradition for Catholicoses to assume the name Baselios (presumably in honour of St. Basil the Great).

So I might guess that Baselios Cardinal Cleemis Thottunkal might be correct.

Names are really hard to translate between cultures, however, and I am far from an expert.
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink:
Re you restricting your pool to cardinals ? Or can we propose baptised RCs who are currently unordained ?
Hmm. Quite frankly, I don't feel like fielding nonsense votes on this one (keeping track of the bets and odds is quite a bit of work!). So I will restrict it to ordained RCs, and unmarried. Personally I think anything lower than bishop is not going to happen, but I will accept deacons and priests.
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
OK, add to that any non-ordained (male, RC, unmarried) vowed religious you can come up with. If you really feel that there is a completely lay RC out there whose odds are better than 1000 - 1, then make your case and I may make an exception.
 
Posted by Doublethink (# 1984) on :
 
Just out of interest, would it be theoretically possible under cannon law for any of these guys whose churches are in communion with Rome, to be elected ?
 
Posted by Triple Tiara (# 9556) on :
 
Yes.
 
Posted by RuthW (# 13) on :
 
25 SoDs on Cardinal Norberto Rivera Carrera of Mexico City. I might redistribute 20 later, but for now I'll leave it all on Carrera.
 
Posted by RuthW (# 13) on :
 
I keep thinking the currency could have been called quatloos.
 
Posted by Maureen Lash (# 17192) on :
 
Rainer Maria Woelki - 5 SoD
Christoph Graf von Schoenborn - 20 SoD

As the youngest Cardinal Woelki is the Wojtyla of this race. Schoenborn is almost certainly the chosen heir of the Pope Emeritus.
 
Posted by Maureen Lash (# 17192) on :
 
I'm sorry but I clearly didn't read the rules properly. Place 25 SoDs on Cardinal Schoeborn please.
 
Posted by sebby (# 15147) on :
 
Cardinal Scola 5 SoD
Taking name Gregpry XVII a further 5 SoD
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
sebby, you have to suggest a new papabile, put 5 SoD on him, and then you have 20 SoD to spend on any of the proposed papabiles (including the one you've added). And I'm not doing the papal names here. This time we have had three new contenders added, including the first non-Cardinal and a Mexican whom I almost suggested myself. I may shift some money that way later... Now riddle me how one styles a Christoph Graf von Schönborn, who is also a Cardinal? And what is the correct title to use here for a Prior General? Is it indeed Most Rev. Fr.? (Is there anywhere online a good write-up for the conventions about religious titles?)
  1. Peter Cardinal Turkson - odds: 11 - 3 (4.64), hedge: 6, leader: 26
  2. Marc Cardinal Ouellet - odds: 26 - 5 (6.21), hedge: 5, leader: 16
  3. Angelo Cardinal Scola - odds: 47 - 7 (7.7), hedge: 4, leader: 16
  4. Baselios Cardinal Cleemis Thottunkal - odds: 31 - 4 (8.75), hedge: 4, leader: 26
  5. Leonardo Cardinal Sandri - odds: 71 - 6 (12.83), hedge: 3, leader: 16
  6. Norberto Rivera Cardinal Carrera - odds: 72 - 5 (15.4), hedge: 2, leader: 26
  7. Christoph Cardinal Schönborn - odds: 72 - 5 (15.4), hedge: 2, leader: 26
  8. Luis Antonio Cardinal Tagle - odds: 74 - 3 (25.67), hedge: 2, leader: 11
  9. Péter Cardinal Erdő - odds: 31 - 1 (32.08), hedge: 1, leader: 8
  10. George Cardinal Pell - odds: 75 - 2 (38.5), hedge: 1, leader: 11
  11. George Cardinal Alencherry - odds: 376 - 9 (42.78), hedge: 1, leader: 10
  12. Joăo Cardinal Braz de Aviz - odds: 76 - 1 (77), hedge: 1, leader: 6
  13. Seán Patrick Cardinal O'Malley - odds: 76 - 1 (77), hedge: 1, leader: 6
  14. Fr. Robert F. Prevost - odds: 76 - 1 (77), hedge: 1, leader: 6
  15. Gianfranco Cardinal Ravasi - odds: 76 - 1 (77), hedge: 1, leader: 6

 
Posted by RuthW (# 13) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by IngoB:
a Mexican whom I almost suggested myself.
Interesting!

I don't frequent the Circus much -- do I ask you or a host if it's okay for us to discuss the reasoning behind our picks?
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
I don't frequent the Circus much -- do I ask you or a host if it's okay for us to discuss the reasoning behind our picks?
The hosts, of course. I'm fine with any (on topic) discussion, but they might not be. I'm also not a regular, so I don't really know the boundaries...

To sneak in a brief comment: I was considering your Cardinal Carrera for combining strong concerns for social justice with complete orthodoxy. But IIRC he was tainted by having supported the Legionaries of Christ, or something like that... I think that makes him too attackable by the media.

[ 03. March 2013, 20:24: Message edited by: IngoB ]
 
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on :
 
Discussing your reasoning is just fine, unless you have some inside information that'll help you win. In that case, discussing your reasoning is fine by us, but probably not with the people who run the conclave and are supposed to make sure you never find out about those things.
 
Posted by Doublethink (# 1984) on :
 
OK - I think I need to seriously hedge my bets - please can I have the hedge stakes on candidates 5 through 14. I believe that means a redistribution of 20 SoDs.
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
Discussing your reasoning is just fine, unless you have some inside information that'll help you win. In that case, discussing your reasoning is fine by us, but probably not with the people who run the conclave and are supposed to make sure you never find out about those things.
Thanks, Ariston. If I had insider info of that sort, I would be busy gaming the commercial oddsmakers, not running a fun bet on SoF... Actually, I doubt that there is a clear leader at the moment.

Doublethink: First, I count only 16 SoD on the hedges 5-15. Did you want to include number 3 for another 4 SoD? Second, I cannot guarantee that putting in all those hedges will in fact hedge all those papabiles. The number I calculate there is: (overall total + x) / (total for this papabile +x) * x = 25, solved for x and rounded up. The assumption is thus that one extra bid of x is put in, not that money is redistributed widely. You will have to check what you put in against the new odds when the dust settles...
 
Posted by RuthW (# 13) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by IngoB:
I was considering your Cardinal Carrera for combining strong concerns for social justice with complete orthodoxy.
This is exactly what I was thinking. Must be a first.
quote:
But IIRC he was tainted by having supported the Legionaries of Christ, or something like that... I think that makes him too attackable by the media.
And now I've had to look up who Legionaries of Christ are, so I'm feeling better. [Biased]
 
Posted by Doublethink (# 1984) on :
 
I think I'll take currently stated hedge on 5 to 15 then - thanks.
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
quote:
Originally posted by IngoB:
I was considering your Cardinal Carrera for combining strong concerns for social justice with complete orthodoxy.
This is exactly what I was thinking. Must be a first.
I think it's the winning combination. For the developing world that's obvious. But even in the West: orthodoxy will dominate in the medium term (even if one does not believe that, it likely will dominate this election!), and a strong social message is the one way with which an orthodox RCC could catch some new, and youngish, converts also here. I think there is ample room for socially radical orthodoxy.

Doublethink: I've put in your hedges. That leaves you with 9 SoD on Baselios Cleemis. Also, at this point in time your hedges in fact all work.
 
Posted by Doublethink (# 1984) on :
 
Woohoo !! (Now one of the first three will win ...)
 
Posted by Hart (# 4991) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
quote:
Originally posted by IngoB:
I was considering your Cardinal Carrera for combining strong concerns for social justice with complete orthodoxy.
This is exactly what I was thinking. Must be a first.
Not really. One way in which the hierarchy are quite different than the chattering classes (and blogosphere in particular) in Catholicism is that the bishops who are most strident about not deviating from doctrinal formulations tend to be consistent in applying the same strictness to social issues. Think of Bp Olmstead's opposition to Arizona's SB 1070, for instance. Not always true, but much more likely to be true in the hierarchy than the rest of the church.
 
Posted by RuthW (# 13) on :
 
I'm not at all surprised at that, Hart. It has always impressed me that when the Catholic hierarchy in the US applies its pro-life to prisoners on death row as well as unborn children. And Cardinal Mahony here in Los Angeles stood fast with the Justice for Janitors campaign (as did Mayor Richard Riordan, a Republican and a Catholic).

The "first" to which I was referring is that IngoB and I were thinking along the same lines.
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
The "first" to which I was referring is that IngoB and I were thinking along the same lines.
Oh, come on. I'm sure you have been reasonable about something sometime before... [Biased]

Anyway, announcing a further shift of my bets, with the opposite strategy to Doublethink: going for leaders, not hedges. I now lead with 6 on Erdő, 11 on Pell, 6 on Ravasi, 11 on Sandri, 6 on Tagle and I only hedge 5 on Scola. And yes, I have more play money because I donated, see the OP. Do the same and beat me!
 
Posted by Desert Daughter (# 13635) on :
 
Cardinal Odilo Scherer

gets my five standard SoD's plus ten more -makes fifteen

then

Cardinal Marc Ouellet - ten
 
Posted by Hart (# 4991) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:


The "first" to which I was referring is that IngoB and I were thinking along the same lines.
Ah, I understand now!

I think I should have a touch more hedging, so I'm changing my bet to:

Turkson 8
Scola 8
Ouellet 6
Sandri 3
 
Posted by Desert Daughter (# 13635) on :
 
...as a not very serious aside,I'm quite sure we've got God as a lurker on this thread.
As a lurker, He won't post, of course. But if He did, His post would be just this:

[Killing me]

[ 04. March 2013, 16:47: Message edited by: Desert Daughter ]
 
Posted by Inanna (# 538) on :
 
Let's increase the US potential: I'll put 5 onto Timothy Cardinal Dolan, just because nobody's mentioned him yet. The other 20 onto Sandri - if there's a fast decision, he's a strong contender, given how much he provides both Italian administration and the South American element. If the conclave goes long ... then I might come back and hedge! [Smile]
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
Lots of movement, I like it! Inanna is heavying in on my papabile with 20, so I withdraw my hedge on Scola entirely and reduce my leader on Erdő to a hedge of 1 in order to claw back the lead on Sandri with 21. [Razz]
  1. Peter Cardinal Turkson - odds: 5 - 1 (5.96), hedge: 5, leader: 26
  2. Marc Cardinal Ouellet - odds: 27 - 5 (6.4), hedge: 5, leader: 16
  3. Leonardo Cardinal Sandri - odds: 6 - 1 (7.02), hedge: 4, leader: 22
  4. Angelo Cardinal Scola - odds: 8 - 1 (9.06), hedge: 3, leader: 16
  5. Baselios Cardinal Cleemis Thottunkal - odds: 29 - 2 (15.54), hedge: 2, leader: 11
  6. Norberto Rivera Cardinal Carrera - odds: 136 - 9 (16.11), hedge: 2, leader: 26
  7. Christoph Cardinal Schönborn - odds: 136 - 9 (16.11), hedge: 2, leader: 26
  8. George Cardinal Pell - odds: 169 - 9 (19.77), hedge: 2, leader: 12
  9. Odilo Pedro Cardinal Scherer - odds: 28 - 1 (29), hedge: 1, leader: 16
  10. Luis Antonio Cardinal Tagle - odds: 65 - 2 (33.46), hedge: 1, leader: 7
  11. Gianfranco Cardinal Ravasi - odds: 141 - 4 (36.25), hedge: 1, leader: 7
  12. George Cardinal Alencherry - odds: 85 - 2 (43.5), hedge: 1, leader: 10
  13. Péter Cardinal Erdő - odds: 428 - 7 (62.14), hedge: 1, leader: 6
  14. Joăo Cardinal Braz de Aviz - odds: 143 - 2 (72.5), hedge: 1, leader: 6
  15. Seán Patrick Cardinal O'Malley - odds: 143 - 2 (72.5), hedge: 1, leader: 6
  16. Fr. Robert F. Prevost - odds: 143 - 2 (72.5), hedge: 1, leader: 6
  17. Timothy Cardinal Dolan - odds: 86 - 1 (87), hedge: 1, leader: 6
Reminder: LeRoc and sebby, your bets are not in there because they were invalid, see above. Ricardus, your remaining 10 SoD give my OCD a hard time. [Biased]
 
Posted by Leorning Cniht (# 17564) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by IngoB:
Lots of movement, I like it! Inanna is heavying in on my papabile with 20, so I withdraw my hedge on Scola entirely and reduce my leader on Erdő to a hedge of 1 in order to claw back the lead on Sandri with 21.
I'll move 3 SoD from Sandri to Tagle, and 5 from Ouellet to Ravasi, leaving me with 10 on Ouellet, 7 on Sandri, 5 on Ravasi and 3 on Tagle. I think it's unlikely that Tagle will be the next Pope, but it might be a rather good thing if he was. Ravasi is my leading contender if the conclave gets scared about how long it's been since an Italian sat on Peter's throne.

For all his popularity in the polls, I don't see Turkson happening. On paper, he has a lot going for him - he's been a cardinal for a while, he's about the right age, and a universal church that trots out an unending line of white Europeans as leaders doesn't necessarily look so universal - but I just don't see it.
 
Posted by Tukai (# 12960) on :
 
More movement ! In light of discussion above, I'll move 5 out of Turkson and onto Carrera
 
Posted by Ricardus (# 8757) on :
 
I'd like to put my remaining 10 units on Scola and Schönborn - 5 on each, please.
 
Posted by Hawk (# 14289) on :
 
10 on Cardinal Óscar Andrés Rodríguez Maradiaga. A spokesman for the Vatican and key player in the global fight against poverty, human rights, and third world debt. A rising star he is probably too moderate for the old guard to elect. But if they have any sense they'll pick him as he'll likely transform the damaged popular image of the papacy into one that isn't a closed-off monolithic institution, but a powerful force for social justice.

I'll stick seven on Schonborn, as the Conclave will be looking for someone to drive them away from the abuse scandals, and he is a powerful voice and a steady hand in that area.

And 4 on Ouellet since his controversial arch-conservatism will probably win out in reality.

And then 4 on Scola, as another top-running conservative.
 
Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
 
10 quid on Reinhard Cardinal Marx because I like the idea of having one Marx as pope.

And I'll back my local boy:
10 quid on Rainer Maria Cardinal Woelki, please.

The remaining 5 will go to Cardinal Sandri.
 
Posted by TurquoiseTastic (# 8978) on :
 
I don't understand why Dolan's odds are longer than those in places 14 to 16, unless there has been some behind-the-scenes bet-switching - is IngoB accepting bets by PM?
 
Posted by Inanna (# 538) on :
 
Ooh. Didn't realise that my favouring of Sandri would change things up so much. Let me take 5 back and put 'em on Tagle, in the hopes that it will have some influence back in Rome. And because it's fun.

Will betting be open until the actual "habemus papam" announcement happens?
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Sylvander:
10 quid on Reinhard Cardinal Marx because I like the idea of having one Marx as pope. And I'll back my local boy:
10 quid on Rainer Maria Cardinal Woelki, please. The remaining 5 will go to Cardinal Sandri.
Unfortunately, you can suggest only one new papabile, not two. You can hope, of course, that someone else suggests one of these two. Then your bet would become possible (and you can shift your bet around as much as you like, as long as you keep 5 SoD on your papabile). Le Roc had the same problem above.

quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
I don't understand why Dolan's odds are longer than those in places 14 to 16, unless there has been some behind-the-scenes bet-switching - is IngoB accepting bets by PM?
Doublethink hedged on all ranks below 5 here, but Dolan was suggested later. So Dolan does not have a Doublethink hedge on him, the others do. I'm allowing only public bets visible to all here.

quote:
Originally posted by Inanna:
Will betting be open until the actual "habemus papam" announcement happens?
Good question.

Announcement, please take note.

Betting will formally stop at noon (12:00pm GMT) of the official beginning of the conclave, assuming normal proceedings (where the first ballot happens earliest that afternoon). It will do so even if I do not make an explicit announcement stating that it has ended. Bets posted past that point in time, as determined by their time stamp, will be considered invalid.

However, at any time after (until a pope is officially elected), I may post an announcement on this thread that I am accepting as valid all bets before that announcement as well. Yet all bets that come after this announcement are then again invalid. The process can repeat, i.e., these later bets can again become valid if I post another announcement, etc.

Upshot: All bets that are handed in by noon GMT of the day when the conclave starts are guaranteed to count. After that, you can still submit your bets. They are however not guaranteed to count, and will do so only by my later announcement. If that announcement comes, then they are in. All bets between my last announcement on this thread (if there are any, otherwise after noon GMT of the start of the conclave), and the official annoucement of the new pope in Rome, will definitely not count.

The point is that while I would like to extend betting as long as possible and likely will be watching conclave footage live, I do not wish to have some kind of duty to track every plume of smoke in order to close betting in time. Rather I will close the betting when it is safe, and I will retroactively (by posting) extend it longer as I watch the proceedings (if I watch them).

[ 06. March 2013, 15:23: Message edited by: IngoB ]
 
Posted by Gussie (# 12271) on :
 
I'm shifting five of my ten on Thottunkal to Carerra.
 
Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
 
Sorry, IngoB for mishap, I thought I had read Woelki's name higher up the thread. But it was Schoenborn. You can tell I am not a habitual gambler.
It'll be 20 on Woelki, then. And 5 on Sandri.
If someone else fancies Marx in Rome, I'll shift back 10 to him.
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
Hmm, this is really hotting up. I'm moving my 11 from Pell to Rodríguez Maradiaga, and shift 5 from Ravasi to Erdő. Turkson and Ouellet are head to head now, and Scola overtakes Sandri. I have added little arrows to show changes in the ranking.
  1. Peter Cardinal Turkson → - odds: 44 - 7 (7.28), hedge: 4, leader: 26
  2. Marc Cardinal Ouellet → - odds: 32 - 5 (7.39), hedge: 4, leader: 11
  3. Angelo Cardinal Scola ↑ - odds: 23 - 3 (8.68), hedge: 4, leader: 16
  4. Leonardo Cardinal Sandri ↓ - odds: 49 - 6 (9.17), hedge: 3, leader: 17
  5. Christoph Cardinal Schönborn ↑ - odds: 35 - 3 (12.69), hedge: 3, leader: 26
  6. Norberto Rivera Cardinal Carrera → - odds: 99 - 8 (13.38), hedge: 2, leader: 26
  7. Baselios Cardinal Cleemis Thottunkal ↓ - odds: 41 - 2 (21.52), hedge: 2, leader: 10
  8. Óscar Andrés Cardinal Rodríguez Maradiaga ↑ - odds: 158 - 7 (23.57), hedge: 2, leader: 12
  9. Luis Antonio Cardinal Tagle ↑ - odds: 158 - 7 (23.57), hedge: 2, leader: 7
  10. Rainer Maria Cardinal Woelki ↑ - odds: 95 - 4 (24.75), hedge: 2, leader: 21
  11. Gianfranco Cardinal Ravasi → - odds: 253 - 9 (29.12), hedge: 1, leader: 7
  12. Odilo Pedro Cardinal Scherer ↓ - odds: 22 - 1 (33), hedge: 1, leader: 16
  13. Péter Cardinal Erdő → - odds: 161 - 4 (41.25), hedge: 1, leader: 7
  14. George Cardinal Pell ↓ - odds: 44 - 1 (45), hedge: 1, leader: 11
  15. George Cardinal Alencherry ↓ - odds: 97 - 2 (49.5), hedge: 1, leader: 10
  16. Joăo Cardinal Braz de Aviz ↓ - odds: 163 - 2 (82.5), hedge: 1, leader: 6
  17. Seán Patrick Cardinal O'Malley ↓ - odds: 163 - 2 (82.5), hedge: 1, leader: 6
  18. Fr. Robert F. Prevost ↓ - odds: 163 - 2 (82.5), hedge: 1, leader: 6
  19. Timothy Cardinal Dolan ↓ - odds: 98 - 1 (99), hedge: 1, leader: 6
Reminder: LeRoc and sebby, please correct your bets.
 
Posted by Hawk (# 14289) on :
 
I'm changing my vote because I've just read a bit more about Mariaga's sorry handling of the Fr Vasquez case. He seems a pretty sorry handler of abuse and if the Vatican cares about saving the church from being drowned by scandal they'll want someone a bit cleaner.

I'll put 12 on Schönborn since he's looking like the cleanest in this area. Tagle is as well, but as he's so young (and only been appointed a Cardinal in 2012) I don't think they'll go for him.

Mariaga remains with 5, and my other points stay where they are.
 
Posted by Inanna (# 538) on :
 
I will remove 4 of my 5 from Dolan to Cardinal O'Malley please. Apparently he's been getting some good press in Rome. And I love the idea of a Capuchin pope.
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Inanna:
I will remove 4 of my 5 from Dolan to Cardinal O'Malley please. Apparently he's been getting some good press in Rome. And I love the idea of a Capuchin pope.
Inanna, sorry, but you cannot do that. Dolan is the papabile with whom you entered betting here, so you always have to leave at least 5 SoD on him. Your have two choices: you can either move more money from Sandri, or you can donate to the floating fund of the Ship (see OP) to get additional SoDs in hand for betting.
 
Posted by EtymologicalEvangelical (# 15091) on :
 
5 SoDs on Cardinal Barbarin

20 SoDs on Cardinal Tagle
 
Posted by Fr Weber (# 13472) on :
 
5 on Scola
5 on Sandri
5 on Ouellet
10 on Francis Cardinal Arinze
 
Posted by TurquoiseTastic (# 8978) on :
 
I'd like to move 5 from Turkson to Scherer please.
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
The date for the start of the conclave has been announced: Tuesday, 12th of March. As explained above, this means that on that day at noon GMT betting ends. After that time you can still place bets, but whether they will be accepted or not depends on whether I post between then and the election of the new pope. So get your betting in before then to be on the safe side. I'm personally not totally sure that we already have the future pope on our list, so I think newcomers still have every chance to win this... I'm also moving 6 SoD from Tagle to Dolan. Ouellet grabs the first place from Turkson.
  1. Marc Cardinal Ouellet ↑ odds: 46 - 7 (7.57), hedge: 4, leader: 11
  2. Peter Cardinal Turkson ↓ odds: 23 - 3 (8.65), hedge: 4, leader: 26
  3. Angelo Cardinal Scola → odds: 39 - 5 (8.79), hedge: 3, leader: 16
  4. Leonardo Cardinal Sandri → odds: 33 - 4 (9.24), hedge: 3, leader: 17
  5. Christoph Cardinal Schönborn → odds: 57 - 5 (12.39), hedge: 3, leader: 26
  6. Norberto Rivera Cardinal Carrera → odds: 44 - 4 (14.73), hedge: 2, leader: 26
  7. Luis Antonio Cardinal Tagle ↑ odds: 102 - 7 (15.57), hedge: 2, leader: 21
  8. Baselios Cardinal Cleemis Thottunkal ↓ odds: 68 - 3 (23.7), hedge: 2, leader: 10
  9. Odilo Pedro Cardinal Scherer ↑ - odds: 65 - 4 (27.25), hedge: 1, leader: 16
  10. Rainer Maria Cardinal Woelki → - odds: 65 - 4 (27.25), hedge: 1, leader: 21
  11. Gianfranco Cardinal Ravasi → odds: 31 - 1 (32.06), hedge: 1, leader: 7
  12. Óscar Andrés Cardinal Rodríguez Maradiaga ↓ odds: 33 - 1 (34.06), hedge: 1, leader: 12
  13. Péter Cardinal Erdő → odds: 222 - 5 (45.42), hedge: 1, leader: 7
  14. Timothy Cardinal Dolan ↑ odds: 437 - 9 (49.55), hedge: 1, leader: 7
  15. George Cardinal Pell ↓ odds: 437 - 9 (49.55), hedge: 1, leader: 11
  16. George Cardinal Alencherry ↓ odds: 107 - 2 (54.5), hedge: 1, leader: 10
  17. Francis Cardinal Arinze ↑ odds: 107 - 2 (54.5), hedge: 1, leader: 11
  18. Joăo Cardinal Braz de Aviz ↓ odds: 539 - 6 (90.83), hedge: 1, leader: 6
  19. Seán Patrick Cardinal O'Malley ↓ odds: 539 - 6 (90.83), hedge: 1, leader: 6
  20. Fr. Robert F. Prevost ↓ odds: 539 - 6 (90.83), hedge: 1, leader: 6
  21. Philippe Cardinal Barbarin ↑ odds: 108 - 1 (109), hedge: 1, leader: 6
Reminder: LeRoc, sebby and Inanna, please correct your bets.
 
Posted by Doublethink (# 1984) on :
 
According to the BBC Turkson has openly talked about the possibility of becoming pope in the past, I think this substantially reduces his chances.
 
Posted by Amazing Grace (# 95) on :
 
I've got a little list:

5 SoF Quatloos - Cardinal Ouellet

5 - Cardinal Carrera

5 - Cardinal O'Malley (my dark horse candidate, because I think he is awesome)

5 - Cardinal Turkson (I might change him later)

5 - Cardinal Scola


I hear that the Americans are a bit in the Vatican doghouse right now after *shock horror* having press briefings, but I've gotta put O'Malley in there.
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
Amazing Grace, as per the OP, you have to suggest a new papabile and put at least 5 SoD on him in order to enter the betting. All your proposed bets are on papabiles already in the list.

If I may offer some suggestions: Angelo Cardinal Bagnasco, Malcolm Cardinal Ranjith and Raymond Leo Cardinal Burke are some names that I would think are not entirely outlandish.
 
Posted by RuthW (# 13) on :
 
A couple of changes, please. 5 to Scherer, 5 to Erdő, leaving 15 on Carrera.

[ 11. March 2013, 20:45: Message edited by: RuthW ]
 
Posted by cheesymarzipan (# 9442) on :
 
I nominate
Fernando Filoni. Italian but he's wandered about a fair bit so he's not an isolated out of touch guy. Plus anyone who's not scared of explosions should be good for the church...
So I'll put 10 moneys on him.
5 each on Marc Ouellet, Baselios Cleemis and Sean O'Malley as they have nice faces.
 
Posted by Og: Thread Killer (# 3200) on :
 
Saw one account of the probables and at least one of their list isn't on here - Bertone. Given he is the "inside" man, surprised he's not on here. Not that I want to put anything on him.
 
Posted by Pancho (# 13533) on :
 
I nominate:
Jorge Maria Cardinal Bergoglio of Buenos Aires.with 5 SoDs

I also put:

5 SoDs on Cardinal Rivera.

5 SoDs on Cardinal Turkelson.

5 SoDs on Ouellet.

5 SoDs on Arinze.

I might redistribute later if I have time.
-------------------------------------------------

I nominate Bergoglio for the reasons IngoB and RuthW gave for Rivera: complete orthodoxy combined with concern for social justice. Plus, he's Latin America and I believe the Vatican's eyes are turning towards L.Am. starting with Pope Benedicts meetings with the bishops in Brazil, his visits to Cuba and Mexico last year, and now World Youth Day coming up. Plus he's the son of an Italian immigrant which gives him sympathy with the Italians, and he was in the running during the last conclave.

For Rivera: I think he's the dark horse in this race, for the same reasons given before, plus he was mentioned during the last conclave and again, I believe Latin America is going to get a lot of attention in the coming years. Plus, it would put the U.S. on notice on so many levels and make for an ironic twist on the old saying, "Poor Mexico: so far from God, so close to the United States".

p.s. I could be wrong but I believe it might be Norberto Cardinal Rivera Carrera, because Rivera is not a middle name but his paternal surname. For example, a man named Juan Antonio Jimenez Paredes would be addressed as Seńor Jimenez.

Ouellet for all the reasons given before, especially for being the head of the Congregation of Bishops as I think the shaping up of bishops is going to continue to be a big task in the next pontificate. Plus, he's looking at you, U.S. and Canada.

Turkson for all the reasons given elsewhere. He's got youth and energy on his side.

Arinze because he's so formidable, he's African, he's no-nonsense. Despite his age he's got the energy and temperament to get things done.
 
Posted by RuthW (# 13) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Pancho:
For Rivera: I think he's the dark horse in this race, for the same reasons given before, plus he was mentioned during the last conclave and again, I believe Latin America is going to get a lot of attention in the coming years. Plus, it would put the U.S. on notice on so many levels and make for an ironic twist on the old saying, "Poor Mexico: so far from God, so close to the United States".
I'd forgotten about that saying. It would be friggin' awesome if a Mexican were pope.

quote:
p.s. I could be wrong but I believe it might be Norberto Cardinal Rivera Carrera, because Rivera is not a middle name but his paternal surname. For example, a man named Juan Antonio Jimenez Paredes would be addressed as Seńor Jimenez.
I wonder -- are there any cardinals with just one name?
 
Posted by Dogwalker (# 14135) on :
 
I'd like to redistribute my bets on the eve of the Conclave.

5 on Cardinal O'Malley
5 on Cardinal Ouellet
5 on Cardinal Scola
5 on Cardinal Erdo
5 on Cardinal Rivera

Three from the new world, two from Europe, one Italian. And one who's probably a relative, since all of us French-Canadians are related to each other.

And IngoB, thanks for doing this.
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
I'm moving my 11 on Rodríguez Maradiaga to 6 on O'Malley and 5 on Scherer. Serious commentators are suggesting that a US pope now is a possibility (Dolan perhaps, but we should really have Burke on our list for his massive canon law cred, given that cleaning up the Curia and the rest of the Church will be a big item on the wish list of many). I also feel that Ranjith is in with a good shot, and hope that someone will put him on the list.
  1. Marc Cardinal Ouellet → odds: 27 - 4 (7.73), hedge: 4, leader: 11
  2. Peter Cardinal Turkson → odds: 31 - 4 (8.75), hedge: 3, leader: 26
  3. Leonardo Cardinal Sandri ↑ odds: 9 - 1 (10.08), hedge: 3, leader: 17
  4. Angelo Cardinal Scola ↓ odds: 85 - 9 (10.44), hedge: 3, leader: 16
  5. Christoph Cardinal Schönborn → odds: 25 - 2 (13.52), hedge: 2, leader: 26
  6. Norberto Cardinal Rivera Carrera → odds: 15 - 1 (16.08), hedge: 2, leader: 16
  7. Luis Antonio Cardinal Tagle → odds: 16 - 1 (17), hedge: 2, leader: 21
  8. Odilo Pedro Cardinal Scherer ↑ - odds: 113 - 6 (19.83), hedge: 2, leader: 16
  9. Baselios Cardinal Cleemis Thottunkal ↓ odds: 81 - 4 (21.25), hedge: 2, leader: 10
  10. Péter Cardinal Erdő ↑ odds: 26 - 1 (27.05), hedge: 1, leader: 7
  11. Rainer Maria Cardinal Woelki ↓ - odds: 75 - 4 (29.75), hedge: 1, leader: 21
  12. Seán Patrick Cardinal O'Malley ↑ odds: 34 - 1 (35), hedge: 1, leader: 7
  13. Gianfranco Cardinal Ravasi ↓ odds: 34 - 1 (35), hedge: 1, leader: 7
  14. Francis Cardinal Arinze ↑ odds: 116 - 3 (39.67), hedge: 1, leader: 11
  15. Timothy Cardinal Dolan ↓ odds: 53 - 1 (54.09), hedge: 1, leader: 7
  16. George Cardinal Pell ↓ odds: 53 - 1 (54.09), hedge: 1, leader: 11
  17. George Cardinal Alencherry ↓ odds: 117 - 2 (59.5), hedge: 1, leader: 10
  18. Fernando Cardinal Filoni ↑ odds: 117 - 2 (59.5), hedge: 1, leader: 11
  19. Joăo Cardinal Braz de Aviz ↓ odds: 589 - 6 (99.17), hedge: 1, leader: 6
  20. Fr. Robert F. Prevost → odds: 589 - 6 (99.17), hedge: 1, leader: 6
  21. Philippe Cardinal Barbarin → odds: 118 - 1 (119), hedge: 1, leader: 6
  22. Jorge Maria Cardinal Bergoglio ↑ odds: 118 - 1 (119), hedge: 1, leader: 6
  23. Óscar Andrés Cardinal Rodríguez Maradiaga ↓ odds: 118 - 1 (119), hedge: 1, leader: 6
Reminder: LeRoc, sebby, Inanna and Amazing Grace, please correct your bets.
 
Posted by PaulBC (# 13712) on :
 
Marc Cardinal Ouellet 10
Sean Parick Cardinal O'Malley 10
Angelo Cardinal Scala 5 [Votive] [Angel] [Smile]
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
PaulBC and anybody else who now thinks of joining in:

You need to suggest a new papabile and put 5 SoD on him to enter the betting, see the OP.
 
Posted by Leorning Cniht (# 17564) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
I wonder -- are there any cardinals with just one name?
I suspect not - cardinals have to travel, and most of the world's bureaucracies aren't set up to deal with people with one name.
 
Posted by Welease Woderwick (# 10424) on :
 
Were I a gambling person I think I'd put my 25 on them electing another Catholic.
 
Posted by PeteC (# 10422) on :
 
On that note, shouldn't the betting shop close as soon as the Cardinals go into conclave?
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
As explained in this previous post, betting is now officially closed.

However, as you can also read there, you can still post your bets and hope that I will accept them. I'm planning to do so on a semi-regular basis between now and the election of the pope.
 
Posted by Inanna (# 538) on :
 
If you'll still take it, and since I have to keep my 5 on Dolan, I'll move 5 from Sandri to O'Malley in that case, another 2 from Sandri to Tagle giving me a total of 7 on him, and 3 from Sandri to Scola, just as a fallback.
 
Posted by ButchCassidy (# 11147) on :
 
If you still choose to take any, I'll put 5 on Scola, 5 on Schornborn, and 15 on Ranjith :-) because you've requested it and because his Wikipedia page makes him seem like a saint.
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
Black smoke, as expected... So I hereby take all the posts previous to this one into account. As mentioned, you can keep on posting bets and updates, but there's not guarantee that they will count any more. I've shifted some more, my bets are now: Braz de Aviz 6, Dolan 6, O'Malley 8, Ouellet 11, Ravasi 6, Sandri 8. Basically, I've moved money to North America, and put some extra on O'Malley (beyond grabbing lead) just because I like him best out of these...
  1. Marc Cardinal Ouellet → odds: 6 - 1 (7.05), hedge: 4, leader: 12
  2. Peter Cardinal Turkson → odds: 73 - 9 (9.12), hedge: 3, leader: 26
  3. Angelo Cardinal Scola ↑ odds: 17 - 2 (9.54), hedge: 3, leader: 16
  4. Christoph Cardinal Schönborn ↑ odds: 35 - 3 (12.65), hedge: 3, leader: 26
  5. Leonardo Cardinal Sandri ↓ odds: 113 - 8 (15.12), hedge: 3, leader: 17
  6. Norberto Cardinal Rivera Carrera → odds: 63 - 4 (16.76), hedge: 2, leader: 16
  7. Luis Antonio Cardinal Tagle → odds: 63 - 4 (16.76), hedge: 2, leader: 21
  8. Baselios Cardinal Cleemis Thottunkal ↑ odds: 148 - 7 (22.14), hedge: 2, leader: 10
  9. Odilo Pedro Cardinal Scherer ↓ - odds: 119 - 5 (24.8), hedge: 2, leader: 16
  10. Seán Patrick Cardinal O'Malley ↑ odds: 149 - 6 (25.83), hedge: 1, leader: 9
  11. Rainer Maria Cardinal Woelki → - odds: 30 - 1 (31), hedge: 1, leader: 21
  12. Gianfranco Cardinal Ravasi ↑ odds: 71 - 2 (36.47), hedge: 1, leader: 7
  13. Péter Cardinal Erdő ↓ odds: 151 - 4 (38.75), hedge: 1, leader: 6
  14. Francis Cardinal Arinze → odds: 121 - 3 (41.33), hedge: 1, leader: 11
  15. Albert Malcolm Cardinal Ranjith ↑ odds: 121 - 3 (41.33), hedge: 1, leader: 16
  16. Joăo Cardinal Braz de Aviz ↑ odds: 152 - 3 (51.67), hedge: 1, leader: 7
  17. Timothy Cardinal Dolan ↓ odds: 443 - 8 (55.36), hedge: 1, leader: 7
  18. George Cardinal Pell ↓ odds: 443 - 8 (55.36), hedge: 1, leader: 11
  19. George Cardinal Alencherry ↓ odds: 61 - 1 (62), hedge: 1, leader: 10
  20. Fernando Cardinal Filoni ↓ odds: 61 - 1 (62), hedge: 1, leader: 11
  21. Fr. Robert F. Prevost ↓ odds: 307 - 3 (103.33), hedge: 1, leader: 6
  22. Philippe Cardinal Barbarin ↓ odds: 123 - 1 (124), hedge: 1, leader: 6
  23. Jorge Maria Cardinal Bergoglio ↓ odds: 123 - 1 (124), hedge: 1, leader: 6
  24. Óscar Andrés Cardinal Rodríguez Maradiaga ↓ odds: 123 - 1 (124), hedge: 1, leader: 6
LeRoc, sebby, Amazing Grace, and PaulBC, you can still try to correct your bets and hope they get in.

I think no pope yet tomorrow (Wednesday). What do you think?
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
As an aside, if you want to know in what quarters the Cardinals are sleeping in tonight, "The hermeneutic of continuity" blog has some pictures. And offers the information that there's neither TV nor alcoholic drink.

If it wasn't clear from the timing with Easter anyhow, this would convince me that the conclave will be over within a week. [Biased]
 
Posted by Amazing Grace (# 95) on :
 
Ooops. Haven't been on in a couple of days. Is Bagnasco still available for nomination? He took on Berlesconi, which is worth something in my book.

I'd take 5 off Scola (to keep my ticket from being Team Italy vs. Team North America) and put 5 on him. All other bets remain the same.

I found out today that one of my co-workers was confirmed by now-Cardinal O'Malley!

I don't think we'll have an election Weds. either, but it might be as early as Thursday or Friday - IMO it will definitely be settled by NEXT Wednesday.
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
Amazing Grace's bet is in.
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
Black smoke on the morning of March the 13th.

If you want to be a second or two ahead of everybody else in knowing the next pope, you have a chance by listening to the first name when it is being announced: "Dominum [first name in accusative] Sanctae Romanć Ecclesiae Cardinalem [surname]". But it will be in Latin, so here's a list of all Cardinal's first name in Latin and accusative. Quite interesting. For example, if you hear "Philippum" then it will be Philippe Barbarin. But if it is "Angelum", will it be Angelo Bagnasco or Angelo Scola (or with lesser likelihood Angelo Amato or Angelo Comastri)?
 
Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
 
I notice there is even one who thus would be announced as "Sanctum" - that must be a divine hint, surely!
But why is he an archpriest? Not a cardinal then?
 
Posted by kankucho (# 14318) on :
 
'Scuse my interruption as I'm not putting any virtual money down. But I'm cheering for Turkson — in tribute to a persistent troll on a previous faith board who combined RC supremacist ranting with grotesque racist outbursts. In the absence of effective forum administration, he managed to kill the community off and claim the declining inclination of people to argue with him as a victory for his (!) Catholicism. For all I know, he's still there, preaching to the viagra adverts.

A black Pope? Oh, yes please!

[ 13. March 2013, 17:40: Message edited by: kankucho ]
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
White smoke! Betting obviously ends here and now. Taking into account the bet of Amazing Grace, we have now:
  1. Marc Cardinal Ouellet → odds: 6 - 1 (6.94), hedge: 4, leader: 12
  2. Peter Cardinal Turkson → odds: 47 - 6 (8.84), hedge: 3, leader: 26
  3. Angelo Cardinal Scola → odds: 9 - 1 (9.92), hedge: 3, leader: 16
  4. Christoph Cardinal Schönborn → odds: 73 - 6 (13.16), hedge: 2, leader: 26
  5. Norberto Cardinal Rivera Carrera ↑ odds: 43 - 3 (15.36), hedge: 2, leader: 16
  6. Leonardo Cardinal Sandri ↓ odds: 59 - 4 (15.73), hedge: 2, leader: 9
  7. Luis Antonio Cardinal Tagle → odds: 115 - 7 (17.43), hedge: 2, leader: 21
  8. Seán Patrick Cardinal O'Malley ↑ odds: 85 - 4 (22.24), hedge: 2, leader: 9
  9. Baselios Cardinal Cleemis Thottunkal ↓ odds: 22 - 1 (23.04), hedge: 2, leader: 10
  10. Odilo Pedro Cardinal Scherer ↓ - odds: 124 - 5 (25.8), hedge: 2, leader: 16
  11. Rainer Maria Cardinal Woelki → - odds: 125 - 4 (32.25), hedge: 1, leader: 21
  12. Gianfranco Cardinal Ravasi → odds: 37 - 1 (37.94), hedge: 1, leader: 7
  13. Péter Cardinal Erdő → odds: 118 - 3 (40.31), hedge: 1, leader: 6
  14. Francis Cardinal Arinze → odds: 42 - 1 (43), hedge: 1, leader: 11
  15. Albert Malcolm Cardinal Ranjith → odds: 41 - 1 (43), hedge: 1, leader: 16
  16. Joăo Cardinal Braz de Aviz → odds: 207 - 4 (53.75), hedge: 1, leader: 7
  17. Timothy Cardinal Dolan → odds: 461 - 8 (58.64), hedge: 1, leader: 7
  18. George Cardinal Pell → odds: 461 - 8 (58.64), hedge: 1, leader: 11
  19. George Cardinal Alencherry → odds: 127 - 2 (64.5), hedge: 1, leader: 10
  20. Fernando Cardinal Filoni → odds: 127 - 2 (64.5), hedge: 1, leader: 11
  21. Fr. Robert F. Prevost → odds: 213 - 2 (107.5), hedge: 1, leader: 6
  22. Angelo Cardinal Bagnasco ↑ odds: 128 - 1 (129), hedge: 1, leader: 6
  23. Philippe Cardinal Barbarin ↓ odds: 128 - 1 (129), hedge: 1, leader: 6
  24. Jorge Maria Cardinal Bergoglio ↓ odds: 128 - 1 (129), hedge: 1, leader: 6
  25. Óscar Andrés Cardinal Rodríguez Maradiaga ↓ odds: 128 - 1 (129), hedge: 1, leader: 6

(Sylvander, Santos Abril y Castelló is the Titular Archbishop of Tamada, I'm guessing "archpriest" is simply a proper title for being in charge of the Basilica of St. Mary Major.)
 
Posted by ButchCassidy (# 11147) on :
 
I think the betting's over...watching the BBC webcam and its turned white!

Edit...aww beaten to it

[ 13. March 2013, 18:09: Message edited by: ButchCassidy ]
 
Posted by Doublethink (# 1984) on :
 
Hmm - 24th - we are shit at guessing.
 
Posted by TurquoiseTastic (# 8978) on :
 
Hey don't do us down Doublethink! At least we had him on the list!
 
Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :
 
Congratulations to Pancho, the sole winner of this betting pool! Well done to make this remarkable prediction. FWIW, Pancho wins 645 SoD.
 
Posted by Cara (# 16966) on :
 
Unless I'm mistaken, Pancho's avatar is St Francis of Assisi.

The new pope, whom only Pancho picked, (oops sounds like tongue-twister) has chosen the name Francis 1.

Hmm.....food for thought! Is Pancho channeling St Francis?

(Oh no. I swear I did not mean to do it. "Channeling" was a completely unconscious pun, even though the beautiful prayer of St Francis, "Make me a channel of thy peace" is so well known.)

Anyway, this bet of Pancho's certainly seems inspired!
 
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on :
 
I think Pancho's avatar is actually Junipero Serra, but he established Mission San Francisco.

[ETA: I think. Guys with that haircut are so hard to tell apart.]

[ 14. March 2013, 00:51: Message edited by: Kelly Alves ]
 
Posted by Pigwidgeon (# 10192) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Kelly Alves:
I think Pancho's avatar is actually Junipero Serra, but he established Mission San Francisco.

[ETA: I think. Guys with that haircut are so hard to tell apart.]
Nope, it actually is St. Francis of Assisi.
 
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on :
 
Ah! OK!
 
Posted by Pancho (# 13533) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
quote:
Originally posted by Pancho:
For Rivera: I think he's the dark horse in this race, for the same reasons given before, plus he was mentioned during the last conclave and again, I believe Latin America is going to get a lot of attention in the coming years. Plus, it would put the U.S. on notice on so many levels and make for an ironic twist on the old saying, "Poor Mexico: so far from God, so close to the United States".
I'd forgotten about that saying. It would be friggin' awesome if a Mexican were pope.
Oh, yeah. If that had happened it would have been........delicious.

It would've been awesome if it had been an African, too! But what's great about Pope Francis is that to many people it was so unexpected. People are still going "who, what, where, what now?". I get a kick out of that.

quote:
I wonder -- are there any cardinals with just one name?
I don't know but have you seen Cardinal Schönborn's name?

Christoph Maria Michael Hugo Damian Peter Adalbert (Graf von) Schönborn, O.P.

The "O.P." at the end is because he is a Dominican (the Order of Preachers). It Stands for "Order of Preachers" in Latin (Ordo Praedicatorum).

At least he doesn't have a name like Spain's current Duchess of Alba:

María del Rosario Cayetana Paloma Alfonsa Victoria Eugenia Fernanda Teresa Francisca de Paula Lourdes Antonia Josefa Fausta Rita Castor Dorotea Santa Esperanza Fitz-James Stuart y de Silva Falcó y Gurtubay

quote:
Originally posted by Kelly Alves:
quote:
Originally posted by Pigwidgeon:
quote:
Originally posted by Kelly Alves:
I think Pancho's avatar is actually Junipero Serra, but he established Mission San Francisco.

[ETA: I think. Guys with that haircut are so hard to tell apart.]
Nope, it actually is St. Francis of Assisi.
Ah! OK!
Yep. The screen-name and avatar are in honor of St. Francis of Assisi but Kelly, I like how you referenced the old Missions of California. The Franciscans, along with the Native Americans, were practically the founders of California. Plus, I like San Francisco (aka The City).

Also, there are several Franciscos/Francisisisis that have that a certain meaning in my life so now the "handle" is kind of a shout-out to them, too. It's sort of like that song from The Kids in the Hall, but it's about Franks.

quote:
Originally posted by IngoB:
Congratulations to Pancho, the sole winner of this betting pool! Well done to make this remarkable prediction.
Yay!! Woo-Hoo!!! I won the interwebz!!! Now I can go get me some ice-cream!

quote:
FWIW, Pancho wins 645 SoD.
Ooooooooh! [Eek!] I wonder what I'm gonna get with all that? *drums fingers together*
 
Posted by Jon in the Nati (# 15849) on :
 
You can trade them all in for one Free Internet.

A winner is you.
 
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Pancho:
The screen-name and avatar are in honor of St. Francis of Assisi but Kelly, I like how you referenced the old Missions of California. The Franciscans, along with the Native Americans, were practically the founders of California. Plus, I like San Francisco (aka The City).

Also, there are several Franciscos/Francisisisis that have that a certain meaning in my life so now the "handle" is kind of a shout-out to them, too. It's sort of like that song from The Kids in the Hall, but it's about Franks.
[Big Grin]

People in the Greater Bay Area often have Saint Francis statues in their yards, whether or not they are Catholic-- the affection for him is so huge. And I share a birthday with Padre Junipero. (I once visited his sarcophagus in Monterey on our birthday.)

Also there is a Franciscan in the story I am currently writing (maybe you can give me pointers!)

[ETA:Thanks for the earworm, by the way.
If I had a previous existence, I lived on Planet Nerdist.]

[ 14. March 2013, 06:11: Message edited by: Kelly Alves ]
 
Posted by Pancho (# 13533) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Jon in the Nati:
You can trade them all in for one Free Internet.
Does it come in different colors?

quote:
Originally posted by Kelly Alves:

Also there is a Franciscan in the story I am currently writing (maybe you can give me pointers!)
Well, I'm surely no expert. I may even be useless. But I could try my best. I promise I wouldn't be like Bugs Bunny helping his nephew with American History.

quote:
[ETA:Thanks for the earworm, by the way.]
Just wait 'till you work with a guy named Dave. Then you'll be hearing that chorus over and over...
 
Posted by Og: Thread Killer (# 3200) on :
 
Try being a Dave.
 
Posted by Pigwidgeon (# 10192) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by Kelly Alves:
People in the Greater Bay Area often have Saint Francis statues in their yards, whether or not they are Catholic-- the affection for him is so huge.
Not just in the Bay Area -- I have one in my garden, and so does my Episcopal church.

Years ago the head of our local Humane Society had a regular column in the newspaper. One October he wrote about St. Francis, pet blessings, etc., and mentioned that he had a St. Francis statue in his yard. And that he (the writer, not the saint) was Jewish.
 
Posted by Sylvander (# 12857) on :
 
quote:
Originally posted by IngoB:

(Sylvander, Santos Abril y Castelló is the Titular Archbishop of Tamada, I'm guessing "archpriest" is simply a proper title for being in charge of the Basilica of St. Mary Major.)
Thanks for the explanation, IngoB.

I am impressed we got someone to predict the correct name and someone else to bet on the right candidate. What a testimony to the collective Ship's superior insight and wisdom! (And the individuals' who got it right, of course).
 


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