Thread: French elections 2017 Board: Purgatory / Ship of Fools.


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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
I think it's high time we covered another presidential election.

For the moment there are four serious contenders.

Benoit Hamon has just won the left-wing primary, trouncing favourite Manuel Valls. He is a former far-left rebel from the Valls government and will have trouble uniting mainstream Socialists.

Emmanuel Macron, another ex-Socialist minister, is running as an independent. Wags say he has promised to announce his campaign platform once elected. A lot of voters will be stuck for choice between him and Hamon.

François Fillon is yet another surprise winner, this time of the centre-right primary. He looked like a dead cert given the disarray on the left, until this week when he has become mired in fake job scandals involving his Welsh wife Penelope that look like they might sink him. Some of his policies are actually to the right of...

Marine Le Pen. All the surveys put her in the second round run-off. They also have her losing to whoever makes it through against her, but I'm not counting on it especially now Fillon is in trouble.

Marine's chances got a huge boost with Trump's election and Brexit, and this is the first major election due in Europe following either of those two events. Hold onto your hats.

[updated thread title because I can]

[ 07. June 2017, 06:57: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
 

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Posted by anteater (# 11435) on :
 
Eutychus:
If Fillon does get discredited, is there a mechanism to deselect him or offer an alternative? Or is the Right stuck with him?
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
It's a good question.

Fillon has rather cleverly maintained he will not stand down unless he is charged.

(The consensus seems to be that the charges about the fake job for his wife in Parliament will not stick because Parliament is prissy about its independence; the one that is looking more ominous is the allegedly fake magazine job. But if someone is charged there, it will be the owner and Penelope, not Fillon).

I think he is more likely to try and cling on to the nomination than go. If he did get forced out, it's hard to know what will happen.

The runner-up, Alain Juppé, has said he would not stand (but might want to be entreated to do so). Juppé might be a more unifying candidate (I sold my soul by voting for him in the primaries, as did not a few of my compatriots, basically to keep Sarkozy out) but he does not have Fillon's "Mr Clean" image, now permanently tarnished whatever happens. Time is perilously short for a re-run of the primary.

Marine Le Pen, meanwhile, is doing her best to sit tight and say nothing.

[ 31. January 2017, 18:47: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
 

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Posted by Ian Climacus (# 944) on :
 
So have the left's chances been scuttled with Benoit Hamon and his inability to unite? From my reading they were in trouble anyway and favoured to be the first to be knocked out.

Do you think this was solely due to Hollande's low popularity? Is France just itching for a change, and throwing a party out rather than enthusiastically bringing one in? Or has the right, and extreme right, made significant gains in this seemingly world-wide right lurch?
 

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Posted by chris stiles (# 12641) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by Eutychus:

Some of his policies are actually to the right of...

Marine Le Pen. All the surveys put her in the second round run-off.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Eutychus:
The only party anybody will be bringing in with any enthusiasm will be the FN.

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Is this around the country, i.e. large cities, towns, rural centres? Or is support for the FN more marked outside the big cities?

[ 31. January 2017, 19:37: Message edited by: Ian Climacus ]
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
I would guess the FN polls highest in high-immigration, economically depressed areas. More urban than rural support in terms of local government, but non-negligible rural support in a presidential vote I would guess.
 

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Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
The Socialists are going to get a hiding AFAICT. I’m expecting it to play out between Fillon, Macron and Le Pen.

The FN do very well down our way in the South-West where their success has a lot to do with monstrous unemployment. On the upside, I think France is protected more than other countries by its electoral system. Recent times have shown the problems with opinion polls, but I think (hope? ) the FN can’t win a second round. Certainly in the last round of elections, they did extremely well in the first round and ended up with exactly no MPs after the second.

ETA: While the South-West does have high unemployment, it doesn't have all that many immigrants. Similar to other places where people change their minds about immigrants once they get to know them, I suspect.

[ 01. February 2017, 08:48: Message edited by: la vie en rouge ]
 

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Posted by Callan (# 525) on :
 
I am really hoping that Macron can pull it off. Mostly because of his politics but also because the sight of a French President lecturing the US at international summits on the evils of protectionism will be absolutely freaking hilarious. Nearly as good as the Chancellor of Germany lecturing the US on the evils of nationalism. If we can get a decent Italian government, as well, we might get the Italians on the subject of governmental corruption for the trifecta.

Someone has already come out with "the trouble with the French is that they don't have a word for dirigiste".
 

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Posted by mr cheesy (# 3330) on :
 
Sorry to be a dumb-arse, but how do the election mechanics work?

Is it that there is a popular vote in the first round (I guess everyone votes and they're tallied nationally?) and then everyone gets a second in some kind of run-off vote between the two most popular candidates? Or is it some kind of tally of constituencies?
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
The presidential election is in two rounds. The first round is traditionally when one votes with one's heart, choosing between a whole plethora of candidates from royalists to Leninists.

The top two scorers go through to the second round, when one is supposed to vote with one's head.

My son has just come out with a paranoid conspiracy theory that Macron is actually France's version of Trump, and not Marine. I'm glad Callan knows what Macron's policies are, because I don't think anybody else does*.

I have now read Hamon's manifesto and find myself agreeing with huge chunks of it He is the only one to talk sense on prisons and I like his energy policy (link - in French).

He might get my first-round "heart" vote in defiance of my commitment made when voting in the centre-right primary (after Paisley: "that was then, this is now").

**

*Macron must be reading the Ship. This just got released this minute.

[ 01. February 2017, 09:46: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
 

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Posted by Callan (# 525) on :
 
Originally posted by Eutychus:

quote:

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I'm glad Callan knows what Macron's policies are, because I don't think anybody else does*.

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Luckily for The Republic I don't get a vote. Based on what I have read and heard Le Pen is Fash, Fillion is a Thatcherite without the Thatcherite virtue of being sound on The Bear, Hamon is your version of Jeremy Corbyn and Macron is a Blairite. Forgive my rudimentary schoolboy French but I think the conclusion can only be Les choses ne peuvent que s'améliorer*.

*Things can only get better...
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
The local version of Panorama has just dug out a video interview with Fillon's wife Penelope from 2007 in which she says "I'm not his assistant, or anything like that, I don't deal with his communication" - at a time when she had already been handsomely paid as his parliamentary assistant.

I think it will be difficult for him to survive this. I hope their marriage does

[ 02. February 2017, 20:04: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
 

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Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
On France Inter yesterday, Fillon was roundly lampooned for his hypocrisy. His answer to the accusations of financial shenanigans: “how could a Christian like me possibly have done a thing like that?” I am very angry with him for this at several levels. I am also expecting the return of Juppé. He has dirty linen of his own but it’s dirty linen that everyone knows about so supposedly that’s ok.

Meanwhile a petition is going round to try to get the left (Hamon, Jadot, Mélenchon*) to unite behind a single candidate.

*Fun fact about Mélenchon: I used to work in the same building where Standard & Poors have their Paris office. After France lost its AAA, Mélenchon et compagnie turned up to protest outside and we all had to sneak in through the back entrance for a week. From watching the TV news, you would have thought there were thousands of them. It was very carefully filmed. I swear there were two hundred people max.
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
His answer to the accusations of financial shenanigans: “how could a Christian like me possibly have done a thing like that?”

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quote:

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On France Inter yesterday, Fillon was roundly lampooned for his hypocrisy. His answer to the accusations of financial shenanigans: “how could a Christian like me possibly have done a thing like that?”

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quote:

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Originally posted by Callan:
Originally posted by la vie en rouge:

quote:

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On France Inter yesterday, Fillon was roundly lampooned for his hypocrisy. His answer to the accusations of financial shenanigans: “how could a Christian like me possibly have done a thing like that?”

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I think that once you have to tell everyone about your integrity it's pretty clear that you have lost your reputation for having it. It was a long and tortuous path from Messiah to pariah for Mr Blair but a key point in the tragedy was when he had to go on television and tell us all that he was a pretty straight sort of guy.

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Trollope had Archdeacon Grantly say it best: Whenever a man speaks of his honesty and integrity, I straightaway check to see if my pocketbook is still in place.
 

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Posted by Ricardus (# 8757) on :
 
Question: what happens if either Macron or (God forbid) Le Pen gets in, given that neither of them have any MPs of their own? On the face of it, that would seem to be taking 'lame duck' to a new level.
 

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Posted by Barnabas62 (# 9110) on :
 


It looks increasingly like a run-off between Macron and Le Pen, which Macron is forecast to win.

But this is not a good year to be a proclaimed centrist. Rampant nationalism is the zeitgeist.

Holding my breath, for fear of "an 'orrible post-truth triple".
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by Ricardus:
Question: what happens if either Macron or (God forbid) Le Pen gets in, given that neither of them have any MPs of their own? On the face of it, that would seem to be taking 'lame duck' to a new level.

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Some people say the French would in the end be consistent and elect MPs in line with the political stripe of the president in the subsequent general election.

(The FN could probably field enough candidates, a good chunk of them with experience in local government).

Others say the electorate would be perverse and give us cohabitation. We have had some practice in these, but I'm not sure how it would turn out with Le Pen. There is apparently a provision in the constitution to granting the president the (theoretical) powers for direct rule

Practically, it is political wisdom that you need about one hundred people to be able to govern France: not necessarily elected poiticians, but senior civil servants, Préfets, magistrates, and so on. If the nightmare scenario happens, I think finding the right 100 of those might be Le Pen's biggest challenge.

The Républicains don't seem to have realised what a sinking ship they appear to be at the minute.
 

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Posted by mr cheesy (# 3330) on :
 
Wow, that seems to be a very messy system. So Le Pen could win the Presidency but have to appoint a PM from an opposing party that had a majority in parliament. But then that leaves a battle between the PM and President as to who has executive power.
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
One of the reasons the presidential seven-year term was aligned with the five-year government term was to try and make it less messy, but it's certainly not ideal.
 

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Posted by Augustine the Aleut (# 1472) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by Eutychus:
One of the reasons the presidential seven-year term was aligned with the five-year government term was to try and make it less messy, but it's certainly not ideal.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Augustine the Aleut:
I cannot find the exact reference but there was an historian who said that the constitution of the Fifth Republic was written for the person of de Gaulle and for the political dominance of the Gaullist parties. At the time, there was little thought of other possibilities ever arising.

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quote:

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Published on Saturday, the document (...) pledges to take France out of the eurozone and – unless the EU agrees to revert to a loose coalition of nations with neither a single currency nor a border-free area – to hold a referendum on France’s EU membership.

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quote:

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Other countries have shown us the way,” Le Pen declared triumphantly from the podium. “The awakening of those nations is historic and marks the end of an era. The winds of history have changed,” she proclaimed.

The leader of the anti-EU National Front pledged to organise France’s own referendum on leaving the bloc within the first six months of her term, if she is elected president.

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I'm not arguing, I have no idea. Make of these reports whatever you like.
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
There is no doubt she is pitched as an "anti-EU" candidate, and left-leaning and establishment sources obviously paint her as one. This is broadly correct but not an entirely accurate reflection of her campaign promises.

Cameron was elected on a pledge to hold an EU referendum but as I recall was not in favour of Leave.
 

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Posted by DaleMaily (# 18725) on :
 
I don't think it's enshrined in law/the constitution, but there is a convention (again, from CDG) that foreign affairs are the "domaine réservé" of the president, which would be interesting considering the FN is being bankrolled by Moscow...
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
That is certainly how Mitterrand and Chirac got along during their cohabitation, but I'm not sure how that could apply in 2017.

Fillon is up for a make-or-break press conference at 3pm GMT.
 

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Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
Nobody in my neck of the woods was very convinced by Fillon’s nonpology yesterday.

If the election was tomorrow I think we would end up with Macron after two rounds.
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
Yes, the bits I saw weren't much good.

Apologising for placing one's trust in one's immediate family members because it's unacceptable to contemporary voters sounded more like a thinly veiled insult than an apology to me.

It's this arrogance and out-of-touchness that is in danger of opening a boulevard for Marine. I'm not convinced Macron has the common touch either. As of today, I think I'll vote Hamon in the first round, though I reserve the right to change my mind.
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
In any event, it looks like Sarkozy has no further hope of being a "Plan B" for Les Républicains. The prosecutor's office has just decided he must stand trial for illegal campaign financing last time round.

Although this could and probably will be contested, it will put him out of the running once and for all I should think.
 

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Posted by stonespring (# 15530) on :
 
If Macron were to win the presidential election, what would be the likely composition of the Parliament he would have to work with? What party would be likely to prevail in the parliamentary election after a Macron victory? Is his En Marche movement running candidates for all parliamentary seats?

If En Marche is not trying to or is not likely to have a parliamentary majority, would he prefer to work with Socialist majority, a Republicain majority, or have a hung parliament that allowed him to pick off centrists of different parties to form a cabinet? Does he have allies in En Marche or other parties that would be likely candidates for Prime Minister and other cabinet positions?
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
As I understand it, the French party political system is much more fragmented than in the US or the UK. The Parti Socialiste is probably the nearest thing to an established Anglo-Saxon political party.

The right has mostly been made up of a coalition of smaller parties, some quite well-known (such as the Gaullists) and some virtually unheard-of (I recently discovered an attorney I have worked with as an interpreter a few times is a leader of one of these tiny parties).

The other thing to bear in mind is that voters do not tend to be lifelong party devotees as they would often be in the US, as I understand it. (FWIW, I voted for Hollande last time round, and Sarkozy the time before that, and my vote in local and regional elections is something else again).

If Macron were to get through to the second round, the first thing would be to see which politicians endorsed him. Depending on who they are and the parliamentary groups they represent, there might be scope to cobble together a cross-party coalition government. I doubt the Socialist Party would join in, but they might see some defections.

The big question is whether Macron could or would really shake up the political scene. Between the anal rape of a youth in a Paris banlieue by four cops last week on the one hand and, on the other, Fillon's nineteenth-century values and seeming obliviousness to how much his family was earning represents to the average Frenchman even if legal*, things are ripe for change.

I hate to say it, though, but I think Marine Le Pen has a better chance of winning than anyone else right now.

All of the above is just guesswork. I'm not really a political junkie at all, but the stakes are hugh here and the feuilleton (series) is more compelling than anything on Netflix.

==
*More allegations are being published by Le Canard Enchaîné tomorrow about Penelope's redundancy payments, although at first sight these look less dangerous than the previous salvos.

[ 07. February 2017, 17:28: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
Mired in accusations of paying family members for nonexistent jobs, or overpaying them for real ones, François Fillon's loudly-proclaimed christianity has been put to the test at mass this morning in Reunion Island, the lectionary text being about settling with your adversary and failing this, not being let out of jail until you have paid the last penny.



Story (in French).
 

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Posted by Sober Preacher's Kid (# 12699) on :
 
I love French politics. It's like a secular version of Presbyterianism.
 

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Posted by Ian Climacus (# 944) on :
 
How are the demographics for French voters?

Is there a wide city/rural divide? Do farmers, as a rule, generally vote conservative [as they do here]? I get the sense organised labour unions are quite strong, or at least people are willing to get out on the streets to protest their working conditions. Does this mean tradespeople tend to be more leftist? Or am I applying my experiences here incorrectly on the French?
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
French people traditionally don't display their politics in the way people in Anglo-Saxon countries do.

I would expect Fillon to have more support in relatively well-off rural areas. Hamon and Macron will be carving up the urban, educated vote. They would get votes in the banlieues (deprived suburbs) but voter turnout there is lousy.

I don't know what the farmers' lobby vote might be. It might well be an anti-system vote more than anything else. And how the working poor will vote is anyone's guess. Overall, the far left is losing out big time to the Front National and I would think Fillon is shedding votes daily in that direction.

In a meeting of religious leaders that I attended last week, the real fear of a Le Pen victory was palpable, and it is one I share.

As for the Greens, if France is like Presbyterianism (according to SPK) the Greens are the evangelicals. Endless splits, factions, immaturity, incapable of national organisation.

[ 13. February 2017, 08:00: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
 

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Posted by Ian Climacus (# 944) on :
 
Merci, Eutychus.
 

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Posted by Jack the Lass (# 3415) on :
 
This Guardian article, whilst conceding it's still early days, is suggesting Macron is the most likely winner, against Le Pen in the second round. Eutychus and LVER (and others closer to the ground than me), do you think this is wishful thinking, missing the point, or accurate (as things stand at the moment, at any rate)?
 

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Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
That's what I would have predicted as well.

I think Fillon is holed below the waterline. People close to me who are natural Républicains voters are starting to say they are going to go for Macron.
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
That's what I would have predicted as well.

I think Fillon is holed below the waterline. People close to me who are natural Républicains voters are starting to say they are going to go for Macron.

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I think Macron is too much of an unknown quantity ("even a washing machine has more programmes than he does") and that France is not really ready for a moderate "third way" candidate, even if that sounds like a sane solution.

LVER, my fear is that your environment, while representative of the one that the "liberal media" inhabit, is not actually representative of grassroots feeling, and that lots of people will vote Le Pen who may not bother answering polls or doing so honestly.

I will be very happy to be proved wrong on this.

[ 13. February 2017, 15:31: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
 

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Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
I think Le Pen will lose against a Front Républicain (essentially everyone else against the Fash). In the last parliamentary elections, the FN came out top in the first round but ended up with zero MPs. But I admit I wouldn’t bet the house on it.

FWIW in foie gras land where my outlaws live the FN does very well. But even down there I know people who think Marine’s beyond the pale. I think a bigger worry is going to be turnout – the provincial underemployed won’t bother voting for anyone.
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
Here (down the page a bit) is a scary map of voter intentions in the first round. Blue is Le Pen, yellow Macron
 

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Posted by Leorning Cniht (# 17564) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by Eutychus:
Here (down the page a bit) is a scary map of voter intentions in the first round. Blue is Le Pen, yellow Macron

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quote:

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Originally posted by Eutychus:
His latest gaffe is to describe French colonisation of North Africa as a "crime against humanity", which is painting things with a rather broad brush to say the least.

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quote:

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Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
Le Pen is on 29% in foie gras land.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Eutychus:
I'm not denying there were bad aspects. But there are some specific aspects of those times that were not all bad, and people who acted uprightly, that his comment ignores.

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A bit like saying the person who has invaded and occupied your home isn't all bad as they do the washing up after cooking the food they stole.
And they don't beat you every day.
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 


See Harkis, Pieds-noirs, and more particularly the Sephardic Jewish community.

I don't pretend to understand French colonial history very well and our relationship to it is hardly a good one, but either Macron was trying deliberately to stomp all over such constituencies, all of which are very sensitive in French history, or he was dog-whistling to the banlieues as LVER suggests (or he's just tactless).

Either way, it does not suggest a good unifying force for the country.

I expect you'll be defending his portrayal of the exceedingly nasty anti-gay marriage protestors as "humiliated" victims next.

[ 17. February 2017, 19:51: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
 

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Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
Le Pen is on 29% in foie gras land. To be honest, I would have expected worse.

Thing is, I think her vote is going to stay quite stable. She polls consistently at about 25% and I can’t see her pushing that to over 50% in a second round. But again, I wouldn’t bet the house on it.

Husband en rouge commented that calling Algerian colonisation a “crime against humanity” could actually play out quite well in some of the banlieues. You also have to set it in the context of right-wing candidates wanting French school history lessons to be used to teach about how the civilising mission of colonisation was a wonderful experience for all concerned.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Eutychus:


See Harkis, Pieds-noirs, and more particularly the Sephardic Jewish community.

I don't pretend to understand French colonial history very well

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quote:

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I expect you'll be defending his portrayal of the exceedingly nasty anti-gay marriage protestors as "humiliated" victims next.

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quote:

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[Colonisation is] a burden on our shoulders; more light needs to be shed on France's responsibilities during the colonial era and this is no simple task. But we need to be careful about the terms we use in addressing such issues (...) 'Crime against humanity' is more than a catchphrase: it implies a guilty verdict from an international court of law

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quote:

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Originally posted by Ian Climacus:

quote:

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Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
Le Pen is on 29% in foie gras land.

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Where is foie gras land? And who lives there, apart from your in-laws?

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quote:

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Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
Colonialism maybe deserves its own thread, but having written a thesis on French Algeria, I don't have much of a problem with calling the razzias against Algerian villages a crime against humanity.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Eutychus:
That said, referring to specific incidents (of which there were undoubtedly many, it appears hard to find anyone in France above a certain age who doesn't know a perpetrator or at least a witness) as crimes against humanity is by no means the same thing as describing colonisation as a whole that way.

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I'm trying to imagine the reaction were someone to describe British colonialism in the same terms.
 

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Posted by Jolly Jape (# 3296) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:

quote:

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Originally posted by Eutychus:
That said, referring to specific incidents (of which there were undoubtedly many, it appears hard to find anyone in France above a certain age who doesn't know a perpetrator or at least a witness) as crimes against humanity is by no means the same thing as describing colonisation as a whole that way.

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I'm trying to imagine the reaction were someone to describe British colonialism in the same terms.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
I'm trying to imagine the reaction were someone to describe British colonialism in the same terms.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:

quote:

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Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
I'm trying to imagine the reaction were someone to describe British colonialism in the same terms.

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Invading an area of land, deposing the current rulers, installing your own legal system and ruling class, and exploiting the land and people for your own benefit.

British colonialism, French colonialism, Belgian colonialism, Norman invasion of England, Frankish conquests in Europe, the Roman Empire, ...

They're all the same.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
There's always this: a plan to get Barack Obama to run for president. Yes, of France. I have a feeling Michelle won't like it.

[Fixed link. Even if it is to yet another WaPo article]

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quote:

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Originally posted by Brenda Clough:

quote:

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Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
There's always this: a plan to get Barack Obama to run for president. Yes, of France. I have a feeling Michelle won't like it.

[Fixed link. Even if it is to yet another WaPo article]

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Oh, thank you, Eutychus.

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No,no you've got it all wrong. First you get Donald to disappear into a time warp, then we give you Theresa May, and we have Obama....

Simples.....



 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
So Fillon is to be formally charged on March 15, a mere two days before the deadline for formally signing up as a presidential candidate.

In a press conference just now at which the predominant media speculation was that he would throw in the towel, he mounted a robust counterattack and maintained his candidacy, apparently with broad party support.

It was hard not be impressed by his combativity and hard not to agree with his charge of political motives in the judicial process, the speed of which is unprecedented. Whether his credibility has in any case been damaged beyond repair remains to be seen.

All this does nothing to endear me to Macron. The source of the original leak about Fillon's alleged fake jobs is likely to be the Finance and Economy Ministry (which handles tax returns); Macron was formerly minister there, which would give him motive, the means, and the opportunity to create the leak.
 

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Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by lilBuddha:
Whilst I've no trouble seeing MtM as an apologist for colonialism, I think that is what he was saying.

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quote:

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Originally posted by stonespring:
Is there any chance that Jean-Luc Melenchon would form an alliance with Benoit Hamon?

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quote:

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It seems to me that in France like in many places the left of the left is almost angrier at the mainstream left than they are at the right

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quote:

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why do you think there is such animosity among many French leftists toward the PS and its leadership?

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quote:

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Originally posted by Eutychus:
Fillon's supporters continue to desert him.

A major test of strength will be his rally in Paris on Sunday, organised with the help of anti-gay demo lobby La manif pour tous. A counter-demonstration protesting political corruption is also planned.

Should Fillon stand down, primary runner-up Alain Juppé is reported to be willing to stand in his place.

The really staggering thing is that according to one poll today, if he were to do so and the election was now, he would face Macron in the secound round, beating Le Pen - also beginning to be tarnished by fake job scandals and having lost her parliamentary immunity solely for a separate issue (tweeting IS execution videos) - into third place.

That's the first scenario not seeing Le Pen in the second round since forever; but it would require Fillon to stand down. Deadlines close for presidential candidates on March 17, two days after Fillon is due to be charged.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by stonespring:
Do Les Republicains need to hold another primary election to select a candidate if Fillon drops out in time? What would be the process for choosing a new candidate for the party if Fillon does drop out in time?

---

quote:

---

Why has it taken this long for leading Republicains to start deserting Fillon in droves?

---

quote:

---

If Fillon does step down and Juppe replaces him, is Juppe likely to dash Macron's hopes of being president or does Macron still have a decent chance of beating Juppe?

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Eutychus:
OK this is getting silly now. Some on the right are demanding the election be postponed because a candidate is "prevented" from campaigning. The Constitutional Council would need to approve the postponement. I wish people on all sides would stop attempting to wield the institutions like blunt instruments.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Eutychus:
Juppé has just ruled himself out once and for all as a stand-in candidate. The presidential election is now Macron's to lose.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Eutychus:
Juppé has just ruled himself out once and for all as a stand-in candidate. The presidential election is now Macron's to lose.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
Replacing Fillon with Sarko would be a really stupid move on the part of the Republicans. He’s in trouble with the law himself. Juppé might have been a credible candidate, but not at this point I don’t think. Anyway, I think if Fillon was going to give way, he’d have done it already. Never mind that he seems to be pretty much handing the election to Macron at this point. (Or to Lepen, God help us - but I don't think it's that bad.)

Shorter version: les Républicains sont foutus (the Republicans are screwed)

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:

quote:

---

Originally posted by Eutychus:
That said, referring to specific incidents (of which there were undoubtedly many, it appears hard to find anyone in France above a certain age who doesn't know a perpetrator or at least a witness) as crimes against humanity is by no means the same thing as describing colonisation as a whole that way.

---

I'm trying to imagine the reaction were someone to describe British colonialism in the same terms.

---

quote:

---

diverting public funds, complicity in misappropriating funds, receiving the funds and not declaring assets fully.

---

I suspect that at the end of the day, if anything is made to stick it will be that third, relatively minor offence; but the damage has been done.
 

---

Posted by stonespring (# 15530) on :
 
Here are some fake news stories (fake according to the BBC) regarding the French election making the rounds on social media:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39265777

[ 15. March 2017, 21:01: Message edited by: stonespring ]
 

---

Posted by stonespring (# 15530) on :
 
By the way, does anyone know much about this Le Canard Enchaine newspaper that has been breaking all the corruption scandals? I had never heard of it before. Is it well respected? How much is it known for humor/satire vs serious journalism? Does it lean to a particular side politically or is it under the influence of any powerful person or lobby? Is it known for being objective compared to other French media?
 

---

Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
Le Canard Echaîné is roughly the equivalent of the UK's Private Eye and quite widely read. It has a consistently satirical take on the news but its leaks are usually high-quality and not infrequently have repercussions.

During the Fillon scandal stringers from all the political parties were filmed queuing up to get the Wednesday edition hot off the presses on Tuesday night.
 

---

Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
A televised debate is in full swing between the five top-polling candidates.

Fillon is almost invisible, Macron is nodding agreement to everyone except Marine Le Pen, on whom he has landed some pretty resounding blows, and Melanchon has proved surprisingly (to me) eloquent.

My vote is still firmly with Hamon, and I think Melanchon might have stolen some points from Le Pen.
 

---

Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
Last night saw a second televised debate, this one with all 11 candidates. The result was entertaining, but as one Twitter user I saw put it, would have been much more entertaining had it not been presidential candidates for one's own country.

Although ultra-far-left candidate Philippe Poutou stole the show in jeans and something resembling a pyjama top, spending as much time consulting with the people behind him as facing the camera, and mercilessly lambasting Marine Le Pen and Fillon, far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon continues to impress with his combination of intelligence, repartee, and acuity.

The race remains wide open in my view. Round 1 in just a couple of weeks
 

---

Posted by stonespring (# 15530) on :
 
The polls seem to indicate that if Melenchon and Hamon's support was combined, they could easily push a candidate into the second round. Why isn't there any support in France to move from a two-round system to a one-round ranked voting system (instant runoff) like for the House of Representatives in Australia? That way, the divisions of the left would be less self-defeating. Granted, not all Melenchon supporters would rank Hamon over Le Pen, but they probably would rank him over Macron. This would also avoid the problem of disappointed leftists staying home for the second round, because if they wanted to vote for their preferred candidate at all they would need to show up to the only round of voting that there is.
 

---

Posted by decampagne (# 17012) on :
 

quote:

---

Originally posted by stonespring:
The polls seem to indicate that if Melenchon and Hamon's support was combined, they could easily push a candidate into the second round. Why isn't there any support in France to move from a two-round system to a one-round ranked voting system (instant runoff) like for the House of Representatives in Australia? That way, the divisions of the left would be less self-defeating. Granted, not all Melenchon supporters would rank Hamon over Le Pen, but they probably would rank him over Macron. This would also avoid the problem of disappointed leftists staying home for the second round, because if they wanted to vote for their preferred candidate at all they would need to show up to the only round of voting that there is.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Eutychus:
It's a mistake to draw too many comparisons between Trump and Le Pen. For one thing, she's hardly a misogynist. For another, she is far more eloquent, and leads a party that has built up some solid political experience at local level in her wake. Her party is much smaller than the GOP but she leads it in a way that Trump cannot be said to lead the GOP.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Eutychus:

I'm more worried about Le Pen winning regardless of the opponent than I am about a Le Pen-Mélenchon runoff. I think she is massively under-represented in the polls.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Eutychus:
I'm more worried about Le Pen winning regardless of the opponent than I am about a Le Pen-Mélenchon runoff. I think she is massively under-represented in the polls.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by stonespring:

quote:

---

Originally posted by Eutychus:

I'm more worried about Le Pen winning regardless of the opponent than I am about a Le Pen-Mélenchon runoff. I think she is massively under-represented in the polls.

---

But if Melenchon is her second round opponent, does that improve her chances of winning?

---

quote:

---

it is reasonably easy to envisage a situation in (at which at least part of) Les Republicans and assorted "divers droite" groups in the National Assembly might serve to both work with and moderate Le Pen

---

I agree with this analysis and hate the fact that it has to be envisaged (I know major industrial firms in France are seriously examining what the impact of a Le Pen presidency might be on their business).

However one scarier and little talked-about part of Le Pen's agenda (as I understand it) is to get Article 11 of the French Constitution altered to allow the president far greater discretion in going over the heads of the government and getting all manner of legislation passed on the basis of popular referenda (and we've all seen how well that works )

I'm not sure what powers any government might have to overthrow this, but it seems like a recipe for instability by creating all manner of excuses for the street and the parliament to argue with the president*.

Which of course would give the president an excuse to invoke article 16 (direct rule by the president)...

For an English-language source discussing article 11, see here under "Frexit".

Note the public perception is that she wants a Frexit referendum, but the underlying policy goal is far broader. I would never have noticed this unless I'd come across it during my translation work on the type of in-house analysis mentioned above.

==

*It is wryly amusing to the see the French tut-tutting over Erdogan's recent referendum victory when our current constitution enables any President with a mind to do so to achieve pretty much the same thing, at least in the short term.

[ 17. April 2017, 20:27: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
 

---

Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
One week to go and the whole thing’s looking thoroughly depressing. What I’m hearing from most of my acquaintance* is that they feel like Macron is the only sensible option (not sure this is a good translation – what the French call “raisonnable”) but they’re very unenthused about him. I think some of my work colleagues (finance people and natural right-wingers) are still wavering over Fillon.

I am also quite scared of Le Pen-Melenchon. According to opinion polls Melenchon would win but (a) I don’t trust opinion polls and (b) I don’t want Melenchon to be President either. He actually talks a lot of sense on certain subjects like equality, but I strongly disagree with him on others, notably on protectionism.

*who are mostly lower middle class, whether in Paris or the provinces
 

---

Posted by stonespring (# 15530) on :
 
If anyone is wondering who they might want to vote for if they were French, here is a neat quiz (in French):

https://www.vote-et-vous.fr/presidentielle-2017.html

Cutting and pasting the questions (there aren't very many) into Google translate (which was pretty accurate for the simply-worded questions in this quiz) makes this pretty easy to take if you don't know French.

The only obscure issues I needed to google were Article 49.3 of the French constitution and the reforms of school timetables.
 

---

Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
Those questionnaires told me what I already knew. But they don't take the issue of tactical voting into account, which is even thornier than usual this time round.
 

---

Posted by Barnabas62 (# 9110) on :
 
An insightful commentary.

I was intrigued by the section on mediocre opponents. Fast finishers always have momentum, but this is two different races.

I'm in the "anyone rather than Le Pen" camp, like just about everyone who posts here. But she looks certain to be in the run off.
 

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Posted by Ian Climacus (# 944) on :
 

quote:

---

Originally posted by stonespring:
If anyone is wondering who they might want to vote for if they were French, here is a neat quiz (in French):

https://www.vote-et-vous.fr/presidentielle-2017.html

---

I found this one (in English) earlier:

https://votecompass.france24.com/president/home


I'm guessing Vote Compass is some worldwide thing as our national broadcaster had it for our election too.

Would France24 be the best place en anglais to follow the results?
 

---

Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
Probably. I'm due to be doing a long-scheduled teaching session for a local church in my region on polling day, on Revelation; or Apocalypse as it is known in French.
 

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Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
Some light relief

(the talking at the end means "sorry, not possible, this is a private party")

(preview post is mon ami)

[fixed link]

[ 20. April 2017, 05:08: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
 

---

Posted by Ian Climacus (# 944) on :
 


Some talented video editors out there!
 

---

Posted by stonespring (# 15530) on :
 

quote:

---

Originally posted by Ian Climacus:

quote:

---

Originally posted by stonespring:
If anyone is wondering who they might want to vote for if they were French, here is a neat quiz (in French):

https://www.vote-et-vous.fr/presidentielle-2017.html

---

I found this one (in English) earlier:

https://votecompass.france24.com/president/home

---

This quiz says I most closely match Nathalie Arthaud(!). I am definitely not a Trotskyite, but I knew these quizzes were imperfect anyway. My #2 match is Hamon, which makes sense. If I were French, though, I would vote for Macron in the first round in order to help prevent Melenchon (or Fillon, for that matter) from being the candidate that advances to the second round, presumably against Le Pen. If France had Instant Runoff Voting, I would rank Hamon over Macron, though.
 

---

Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
Meanwhile Marine Le Pen makes a late bid (link in French, sorry) to alienate the protestant vote by saying Richelieu was right to suppress them as being "against the interests of the nation".

This was clearly a swipe at present-day Muslims but it says a lot about her that she's willing to hold up as an example someone who massacred 23,000 protestants in La Rochelle.
 

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Posted by mr cheesy (# 3330) on :
 
Gah, dammit, policeman killed tonight in Paris.

BBC

God help us all
 

---

Posted by Ricardus (# 8757) on :
 

quote:

---

Originally posted by Eutychus:
Meanwhile Marine Le Pen makes a late bid (link in French, sorry) to alienate the protestant vote by saying Richelieu was right to suppress them as being "against the interests of the nation".

This was clearly a swipe at present-day Muslims but it says a lot about her that she's willing to hold up as an example someone who massacred 23,000 protestants in La Rochelle.

---

Would it be fair to say that there is no intersection between 'people who are sympathetic towards Protestants' and 'people who could be persuaded to vote for Le Pen'?
 

---

Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 

quote:

---

Originally posted by Ricardus:
Would it be fair to say that there is no intersection between 'people who are sympathetic towards Protestants' and 'people who could be persuaded to vote for Le Pen'?

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Eutychus:

quote:

---

Originally posted by Ricardus:
Would it be fair to say that there is no intersection between 'people who are sympathetic towards Protestants' and 'people who could be persuaded to vote for Le Pen'?

---

Unfortunately not (at least until now). I have seen French evangelicals actively support Le Pen on FB. Perhaps not more traditional protestants.

The CNEF evangelical federation put out a press release condemning her remarks but it was much less-well worded than the FPF protestant federation's (however, I don't think many Front National voters are in the habit of reading press releases...).

The informed view here is that yesterday's attack in Paris might give a nudge to Fillon and/or Le Pen but is unlikely to affect the first-round result much.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by stonespring:
who exactly is Le Pen trying to appeal to by attacking Protestants? Do FN supporters tend to not like Protestants? Or is appealing to Fillon's base, many of whom are conservative Roman Catholics?

---

quote:

---

Do secular and nominally Catholic French who are nationalists take pride in the historical defeat of Huguenots and consider the Huguenots (back then, not now) as less French than Roman Catholics? Do conservative Catholics?

---

quote:

---

Is there a difference in opinion regarding this between conservative Catholics who actually go to church and observe Catholic teaching versus those who march in Manif Pour Tous demonstrations but otherwise live secular lives?

---

I'd say the difference is between individuals and the institution.

I enjoy great fellowship with many catholics and a limited amount of success in ecumenical events (we did a joint catholic-orthodox-protestant Good Friday service in my prison for the first time this year). But the institution is quick to clamp down and remind everyone who's boss if they feel threatened in any way.

My enduring impression of institutional ecumenism by the catholics here is that of taking their faithful on a trip to the zoo... (they even have their approved list of ecumenical hymns which they assume we must know and be ok with because the Catholics have decreed that those are ecumenical hymns; you get the idea).

Back on topic, traditional catholics will no doubt vote overwhelmingly for Fillon. He was on the front page of Catholic daily La Croix earlier this week.

==

*I may have mentioned this before, but one of the most striking 1984-degree pieces of disinformation I have ever witnessed was shortly after my arrival in France in 1985, the anniversary of the Revocation of the Edict of Nantes. The Edict (1598) granted freedom of worship for protestants; the Revocation ended it, and triggered massive persecution.

The French post office managed to commemorate the Revocation as though it were the Edict, with a stamp celebrating this licence to persecute with the words "1685-1985 - the welcome of the Huguenots - Tolerance - Pluralism - Brotherhood"
 

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Posted by Pancho (# 13533) on :
 
For what it's worth, the Jesuit magazine America had an article a couple of weeks ago about the signs of a potential Catholic revival in France:

Zombie Catholics vs. French Secularism

The article was written by a Frenchman living in Paris and describes some of the changes he has observed during the last few years. The observations are anecdotal but he makes a case for why these could be early signs of a larger and more influential movement that doesn't always fit previous molds of French (or American) conservatives.

[ 21. April 2017, 17:57: Message edited by: Pancho ]
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
I think the article tells you more about where the guy lives (one of the right parts of Paris) and the circles he moves in than about any national groundswell. He sounds out of touch to me.

There are certainly signs of life in the Catholic church here, but it is through consolidation more than growth. The fastest-growing Christian group are undoubtedly conservative-leaning evangelicals with a dash of health and wealth and church-as-a-business thrown in.

To my mind at least, the politicisation evident in Catholic movements like La Manif pour Tous is no more the sort of Christianity I embrace than the latter kind.
 

---

Posted by Pangolin Guerre (# 18686) on :
 

quote:

---

Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
If Brexit and Trump are anything to go by, Le Pen is trying to appeal to Mr & Mrs Angry (however you say that in French). The exact terms, even the target doesn't matter, but Le Pen can probably see herself as the focus for the "angry" vote.

There's a lot of it about, and it's growing all the time.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
A nice Republican front is forming as we speak. I am now prepared to bet the house.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by stonespring:
In the National Assembly, would he be working with a Socialist (and allies) majority, a Les Republicains (and allies) majority, or a situation where no bloc has a majority? Which side would Macron prefer to work with? Is his En Marche party a serious contender to win many seats in the National Assembly?

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quote:

---

Wikipedia says the right currently has a majority in the Senate. So if the Socialists and allies get a majority in the National Assembly and if Macron is President, would they be able to get legislation passed with a Senate controlled by the right?

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Eutychus:

Since Le Pen is less anti-gay marriage than Fillon, this can only be seen as tantamount to an anti-foreigner vote (several evangelicals on FB also continue to champion Le Pen).

While it is by no means entirely representative, I'm ashamed that this should be the most vocal expression of Christianity in politics here.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by chris stiles:

Given evangelicals generally poor ecclesiology - where evangelical megachurch warlords as so influential - perhaps it's nor surprising that they are liable to go for the 'strong man' approach to politics.

---

quote:

---

The "Nonconformist conscience" of the Old group emphasized religious freedom and equality, pursuit of justice, and opposition to discrimination, compulsion, and coercion. (From the Wikipedia article on Nonconformists

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by mr cheesy:
I dunno, I think it is more complex than that. Low non-conformists have a checkered history of supporting tyrants and autocrats when they were perceived as saying the right thing in the right kind of spiritual language.

---

To relate it somewhat vaguely back to the OP - I wonder if part of the present phenomena (evangelicals backing fairly anti-Islamic right candidates), is due to some kind of reaction to/against the new atheist movement [evangelicals trying to present their fundamentalism as the more acceptable face of religion by punching down].

Returning to the topic more fully, I note that some polls appear to show fairly significant levels of support for Le Pen among younger voters (alongside that for Melenchon):

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-HvpXUXsAAeElU.jpg:large

I presume that much of this reflects the large rate of youth unemployment in France - so the cohort who are voting for 'change, any change' are substantially younger than was the case in the US.

[Apologies for the multiple spelling mistakes in the previous post - evidently the perils of typing on ones phone]
 

---

Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
We listened to Macron’s speech last night, and good grief was it a triumph of style of content. He said nothing. Lots of earnest rambling with the odd buzz-word thrown in. Bla bla bla bla solidarity bla bla Europe bla bla bla optimism. I think he fancies himself a French Obama but he really isn’t. I have no idea what he actually stands for and I think he is wildly underestimating how many of the people who voted for him were casting what the French call “useful” votes, i.e. tactical votes for the least worst option. Also I know he can’t help the lithp but it doesn’t help him in the great orator stakes. The one strategic move that I think was smart was letting everyone else go first and waiting until last to make his statement. That way he got to nick Marine Le Pen’s expression and say “we are patriots, not nationalists”.

Normally there’s going to be a debate between the two of them and I’m not sure how well it’s likely to go for Macron. He managed to land the odd punch on her in the first round but not consistently. (TBH I think it was Mélenchon who did best in this respect.)

I know two people who voted Mélenchon. One is twenty years old and following in a long and noble tradition of voting for the Communists in an act of youthful rebellion. He’ll grow out of it. Anyway, he thinks the second-round is a no-brainer and will vote Macron to stop the fash. The other is an older lefty die-hard. Hell will freeze over before he votes FN but he might stay at home. I think they’re probably fairly representative. Also I think (but am not sure) that Mélenchon probably got a decent proportion of votes from people of dark complexions. I can’t see them voting Le Pen.

[ 24. April 2017, 10:40: Message edited by: la vie en rouge ]
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
I agree with almost all of that except your last line. Front National voters include people of foreign origin with French nationality who don't want others to share their entitlements.

Mélenchon is definitely the most eloquent of the bunch but eloquence doth not a country run.
 

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Posted by lilBuddha (# 14333) on :
 
I read an article, Vox I believe, that called Macron more of a realist than the others and stating realism doesn't play well to voters.
The later is definitely true, more's the pity.
 

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Posted by Anglican_Brat (# 12349) on :
 
I think the apt summary of the clash between Le Pen and Macron is that it is a clash between Trump and Trudeau.
 

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Posted by lilBuddha (# 14333) on :
 

quote:

---

Originally posted by Anglican_Brat:
I think the apt summary of the clash between Le Pen and Macron is that it is a clash between Trump and Trudeau.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by lilBuddha:
I read an article, Vox I believe, that called Macron more of a realist than the others and stating realism doesn't play well to voters.
The later is definitely true, more's the pity.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Eutychus:

quote:

---

Originally posted by lilBuddha:
I read an article, Vox I believe, that called Macron more of a realist than the others and stating realism doesn't play well to voters.
The later is definitely true, more's the pity.

---

"Politics is perception".

I think Macron is so bland that he is basically an empty vessel into which a whole range of people's hopes and aspirations can be poured. The challenge is going to be holding all those diverse hopes and aspirations together.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Eutychus:

I think Macron is so bland that he is basically an empty vessel into which a whole range of people's hopes and aspirations can be poured. The challenge is going to be holding all those diverse hopes and aspirations together.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by lilBuddha:

quote:

---

Originally posted by Anglican_Brat:
I think the apt summary of the clash between Le Pen and Macron is that it is a clash between Trump and Trudeau.

---

What does that mean in France, though?

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Anglican_Brat:

quote:

---

Originally posted by lilBuddha:

quote:

---

Originally posted by Anglican_Brat:
I think the apt summary of the clash between Le Pen and Macron is that it is a clash between Trump and Trudeau.

---

What does that mean in France, though?

---

Cosmopolitian, young, small l-liberal who is "post-ideological" (think Blair before Iraq) versus populist, anti-trade, anti-globalization nationalist.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Anglican_Brat:

quote:

---

Originally posted by lilBuddha:

quote:

---

Originally posted by Anglican_Brat:
I think the apt summary of the clash between Le Pen and Macron is that it is a clash between Trump and Trudeau.

---

What does that mean in France, though?

---

Cosmopolitian, young, small l-liberal who is "post-ideological" (think Blair before Iraq) versus populist, anti-trade, anti-globalization nationalist.

---

Post-Ideological, that's rich.
 

---

Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 

quote:

---

Originally posted by lilBuddha:
If by bland you mean boring, politics has had far to much of "interesting" candidates.
Bland should not be a disqualification. Trump is interesting.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Ian Climacus:
Charismatic politicians often concern me...despite any pull they may have.

---

quote:

---

Interesting result. When was the last time there was a centrist?

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
I am as sure I can be that Macron is going to win – the world hasn’t changed enough yet for the FN to win against a Front Républicain.

---

quote:

---

Question is by how much.

---

quote:

---

In that respect the National Front needs to lose hard. Opinion polls are currently calling it at about 60/40.

---

quote:

---

I’d rather lost faith in opinion polls after Brexit and Trump, but in the first round here they called it about exactly right

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Eutychus:

quote:

---

Interesting result. When was the last time there was a centrist?

---

Never under the Fifth Republic (hitherto delivering left or right presidents since 1958)

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by L'organist:
The one thing his CV doesn't show is an ability to stick at anything for long

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by L'organist:
For Macron to be perceived as an 'outsider' is laughable, and a cursory look at his CV will tell you why.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by L'organist:
... before getting a cabinet post on his 30th birthday.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Eutychus:
The conservative Catholic Manif Pour Tous movement, mainly known for its vocal opposition to gay marriage and a big supporter of Fillon's campaign, has called on its supporters to oppose Macron because of his alleged "openly anti-family" stance. Leading member Christine Boutin, also beloved of many conservative evangelicals, has lent unequivocal support to Le Pen.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Karl: Liberal Backslider:

quote:

---

Originally posted by Eutychus:
The conservative Catholic Manif Pour Tous movement, mainly known for its vocal opposition to gay marriage and a big supporter of Fillon's campaign, has called on its supporters to oppose Macron because of his alleged "openly anti-family" stance. Leading member Christine Boutin, also beloved of many conservative evangelicals, has lent unequivocal support to Le Pen.

---

When bashing the queers is more important than opposing the fash, your moral compass is utterly broken.

I despair.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
I think the Catholic ultra-right are the equivalent of the US evangelicals who voted Trump. I hope their position should be mitigated a bit by the fact that Fillon himself has endorsed Macron. They are very bad people.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
For reasons I can’t really divulge here, yesterday I found myself in a room with Emmanuel Macron’s best mate.

---

Could you pass on something about prison reform?
 

---

Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
First-round candidate Nicolas Dupont d'Aignan, who came sixth with almost 5% of the vote, and describes himself as a Gaullist, has just publicly endorsed Le Pen. We could have done without that.
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
And this week's Economist imagines the first round of the presidential election as a contest between Macron and Le Pen under US presidential election rules. Under which Le Pen could well have won. Hopefully this scenario does not travel well.
 

---

Posted by stonespring (# 15530) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by Eutychus:
First-round candidate Nicolas Dupont d'Aignan, who came sixth with almost 5% of the vote, and describes himself as a Gaullist, has just publicly endorsed Le Pen. We could have done without that.

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Originally posted by Eutychus:


Meanwhile Marine Le Pen has announced she's temporarily stepping aside as leader of her party to simply be the presidential candidate. This sounds like Trump meets Erdogan to me, and reminds me of Nigel Farage's endless resignations and returns. At first glance I'd be amazed if anybody falls for it.

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I still live in fear of a "Marcon's e-mails" moment or worse.

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Originally posted by Eutychus:

Meanwhile it looks to me as though the FN's tactic in the event of a loss will be to try and discredit the result with accusations of vote-tampering, etc.

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Originally posted by Eutychus:
Only that as of 5pm local time, turnout was just over 65%, a lot lower than the first round. That already hampers the legitimacy of whoever wins, and will favour Le Pen more than it does Macron.

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Another pivotal election where people decide to be stupid and petulant. If I did not live in the same world as they, I would be tempted to hope they get what they deserve.
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
With most polling stations closing in 15 minutes (another hour in large cities), the final turnout is forecast to be 74%, which would make it the lowest since 1969.

[ 07. May 2017, 16:44: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
First official forecasts: Macron: 65.1% Le Pen: 34.9%, for a 75% turnout. So a firm majority of voters, not quite an absolute majority if abstentions are counted.
 

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Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on :
 
En marche!

(and thank God for that)
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
Macron is due to speak in front of the Louvre pyramid. Cue loony evangelicals saying stuff about Freemasonry and the Illuminati.

Le Pen seems to have announced the formation of a new "patriots' party".

4% of the ballots were blank or spoiled. That's huge too.
 

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Posted by Callan (# 525) on :
 
Les choses ne peuvent que s'améliorer
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
Ahem.

"Things can only get better".
 

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Posted by mr cheesy (# 3330) on :
 
What's an "official forecast"? Is that different to an exit poll? How long does the count take?
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
It's the official projections by the French Interior ministry. Polls in major cities closed less than 40 minutes ago. The official results will probably be published some time early tomorrow morning, but things are unlikely to change much now. The Euty household is hoping Macron can break the 66% barrier, not impossible given that cities will probably garner more Macron votes and their results are not in yet.
 

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Posted by TurquoiseTastic (# 8978) on :
 

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Originally posted by Eutychus:
Ahem.

"Things can only get better".

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Originally posted by Doc Tor:
You'd kind of hope a left-winger would be against the Fash from the off.

Strange days.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Doc Tor:
You'd kind of hope a left-winger would be against the Fash from the off.

Strange days.

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Originally posted by lilBuddha:

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Originally posted by Doc Tor:
You'd kind of hope a left-winger would be against the Fash from the off.

Strange days.

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Strange days... really?

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Originally posted by Doc Tor:

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Originally posted by lilBuddha:

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Originally posted by Doc Tor:
You'd kind of hope a left-winger would be against the Fash from the off.

Strange days.

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Strange days... really?

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Yes. Unless you think Soviet communism under Stalin is representative of contemporary socialist thought.

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quote:

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Originally posted by stonespring:
Another possibility is some kind of hung parliament. Is this possible?

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Originally posted by mr cheesy:
(although presumably the same might have happened in reverse, Le Pen won but a majority in parliament against her).

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quote:

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Originally posted by stonespring:
1. Do the PM and Cabinet need to be approved by Parliament to take office?

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quote:

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2. Does the President have a veto on legislation passed by Parliament?

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Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
Marion Maréchal-le Pen is resigning to spend more time with her family.

I think the FN is in a mess and expect some nasty infighting. Long may it continue.

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Originally posted by stonespring:
1. And Edouard Philippe, a moderate from the conservative Les Republicains, is to be Prime Minister. Thoughts?

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This is clearly an effort by Macron to split the LR party and make good on his promise to implement a cross-partisan government. It will take some time to see whether Philippe can pull things together in this way. The delay in the announcement suggests some hard bargaining, and possibly tensions, between him and Macron.

As to voting for MPs, I think it will really depend on the constituency. Unlike the UK, MPs do not really have much of a local presence (one would not consider, say "writing to your MP" as you would in the UK).

The city where I live is at the intersection of several constituencies and I had to check who my MP was - and it took me quite some time to find out.

I'll be voting for République En Marche (REM) in the first round at least on the very French basis of being consistent with the president I've just helped elect. Had my local MP been a strong local presence and still in the running, it would have been real a dilemma for me.

Incidentally Edouard Philippe is said to be not adverse to evangelicals (his stronghold of Le Havre is to host a major evangelistic event in the football stadium this summer). Macron, meanwhile, requested a Catholic baptism aged 12 and served at one time as an assistant to the late and renowned Protestant theologian Paul Ricoeur who spoke highly of him.
 

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Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
In my neck of the woods (the 15th arrondissement of Paris) it’s going to be a straight fight between the Republicans and REM with no one else getting a look in.

However, that in itself is a fairly big change. Until a year ago, this was the most secure Republican territory going – petit-bourgeois and rather Catholic. The Republican HQ has been on the rue de Vaugirard round the corner from my house forever. It’s possibly not insignificant that REM also set up shop in the 15th.

The canvassers were back out on the market this weekend, and the Republicans were being somewhat virulent. They were arguing that an opposition in the Assembly is for the good of the country. I’m not sure. Also I’m warming to Macron.
 

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Posted by stonespring (# 15530) on :
 
Macron has a full cabinet now:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39920509
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
It's certainly put the cat among the pigeons in the traditional parties.

A REM! majority in the National Assembly suddenly looks a lot more plausible, but there's a month to go yet.

In the meantime, Macron intends to push through two pieces of law by executive order prior to the elections, on reforming the Labour Act and on ethics in politics. That will be an interesting test and probably have an impact on the election.

Mélenchon's popularity is sinking like a stone, btw.
 

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Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
I’m not surprised that Mélenchon is in the doldrums. My diehard left-wing intellectual friend mentioned upthread has declared himself deeply disappointed. I think he’s not alone in considering it beyond the pale that Mélenchon refused to come out categorically against Le Pen. And in the cold light of day one can’t help remembering that he’s always been a bit of a megalomaniac (Mélenchon, I mean, not my friend ).
 

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Posted by Ian Climacus (# 944) on :
 
So how is Macron being viewed?

Favourable press outside France from what I can see. Particularly #that# handshake and his comments on Trump's various declarations and decisions.

I know it's off topic for this thread, but are his party's chances for the election looking better due to his performance?
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
He has certainly made the most of his overseas outings since being elected.

At home he has had a few missteps, with an unfortunate off-the-cuff remark about migrants to the island of Mayotte and a minor minister embroiled in a conflict-of-interest kerfuffle that does not sit well with his stated aim of cleaning up French political life, even if most of the outrage seems to be manufactured.

Macron has done well in the voting for overseas constituencies (which has already happened) but with a very low turnout. I think we're suffering from election fatigue. The first round of voting in the general election is this Sunday.
 

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Posted by Ian Climacus (# 944) on :
 
Merci.

And I did not realise they were so close, or had started!
 

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Posted by Ian Climacus (# 944) on :
 
You wrote "first round". How does voting work this time around? Do you have electorates? Or are people elected direct to Parliament? I can see how 2 rounds work for the President...how does it work for MPs?
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 

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To be elected in the first round, a candidate is required to secure an absolute majority of votes cast and to secure votes equal to at least 25% of eligible voters. Should none of the candidates satisfy these conditions, a second round of voting ensues. Only first-round candidates with the support of at least 12.5% of registered voters are allowed to participate, but if fewer than two candidates meet that standard the two candidates with the highest number of votes in the first round may continue to the second round. In the second round, the candidate with a relative majority is elected.

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Two ministers have become enmeshed in ethics scandals that risk compromising weekend legislative elections for the government, rendering Macron’s revolution stillborn via the ballot box. Whatever his successes out-tweeting — out-smarting — Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin on the international stage, his first weeks have been sullied at home, and he will be blamed. But to what extent?

Should Macron decide to dismiss Richard Ferrand, his regional development minister and former campaign manager, and junior minister Marielle de Sarnez — both facing separate media allegations of sleaze — he would be charged with summoning a spectacular storm upon the government. If he doesn’t, and it appears at this stage that he will not, he could pay the price for ignoring one of the biggest lessons of the current electoral cycle: the French are tired of scandals and want exemplary behaviour from politicians.

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There are a number of colourful characters in the Macron camp - a retired bullfighter in Arles, Marie Sara; an eclair entrepreneur in Lille, Brigitte Liso; a Rwandan refugee in Brittany, Hervé Berville; and Cédric Villani, a "mathematics evangelist" known for his unique dress sense including large spider brooches.

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Originally posted by Eutychus:
I am in a Socialist safe seat and still haven't fully made up my mind who to vote for today.

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Oops. The socialists didn't even make it into the second round there: LREM won over 40% of my constituency vote followed by Mélenchon's lot with 14%.

Pundit talk on the tv tonight is that the lack of a parliamentary opposition will mean "the opposition will be in the streets". Exciting times.

[ 11. June 2017, 21:14: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
 

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Posted by Ian Climacus (# 944) on :
 
That is a very low turnout. I am amazed so many are that disinterested, or perhaps uninterested. Is there some minimum that needs to be reached, or if 25% turn up is all considered good? Coming from a country where it is compulsory to turn up to vote, 50% shocks me.

Well done Macron though. And with a new party too. It'll be interesting to see how it goes.
 

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Posted by stonespring (# 15530) on :
 
How do they predict the number of seats from the second round? Where an LREM candidate is against a FN candidate, I can understand assuming the LREM candidate will win. What about where an LREM candidate is up againt a LR or PS candidate that does not support Macron? And mightn't the FI/PCF candidates pull off a few surprises where enough leftists turn out to try to make things difficult for Macron? And what about any three or four-way races? How do they make assumptions then? I don't see how the forecasters are so confident.
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
If there is a second round (ie no candidate has won the required majority in the first round), an initial rough voting prediction can be made by guessing where the percentage of the vote that went to those candidates who didn't make the cut might go.

Of course there may be some new voters and some who don't bother to vote in the second round, but it's a fairly reliable guide (note however that the margin of error is still pretty large - the Front National is now forecast to get anywhere between 1 and 5 seats, LREM between 415 and 455, for instance).

I haven't checked, but the word was that the large number of different candidates in most constituencies this time (especially on the left) means that there will be very few three and four-way contests in the second round.
 

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Posted by stonespring (# 15530) on :
 
Macron has his majority, but turnout was way down in the second round of the legislatives and his majority is about 50 seats less than predicted. Will it be smooth sailing for his agenda? Will the Socialist Party recover in the next election or is it really kaput?
 

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Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
If Macron is smart, he’ll push the most prickly legislation through over the summer when no one can be bothered protesting about it (and probably quite a bit of it by executive order). I am nonetheless expecting some quite ugly strikes once he sets about reforming the labour law.
 

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Posted by stonespring (# 15530) on :
 
There seem to be multiple scandals among Macron's political allies, including his closest political confidante and also in the MoDem party of his ally Bayrou, who is justice minister and now it seems protested too much in his talk of cleaning up government - all these scandals very similar to the "fake jobs" scandals that afflicted Fillon and LePen. Should Macron do all he can to protect his allies so he can get things passed, even if it makes him look like the old corrupt political establishment? Should he make all his allies that are implicated fall on their swords even if it means fracturing his support in Parliament? Or should he be brutally honest with the French people and say that many politicians of both the right and the left have been doing this for a long time with impunity and offer an amnesty if a politician admits to everything and pays back every cent that their family members were paid by the government to do nothing? Or would that be the most disastrous choice of all?

Also - is Macron in his elitism and sense of entitlement similar to David Cameron? Could this serve to undermine him, especially if he winds up making cuts to government jobs, services, and benefits (and labor protections) like Cameron did? Or is he more like a French Tony Blair who has triangulated his way to victory over right and left but risks alienating a huge groups of people with his pro-market policies who will turn even further to the extremes of the political spectrum?
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
I've been working with politicians all week. The remark that rang the most true for me was a comparison between Macron and Napoleon.
 

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Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
Bayrou has gone. If nothing else, I think this shows Manu is prepared to be ruthless. He doesn’t need MoDem anymore and is prepared to cut them loose if they are becoming a liability. It remains to be seen whether he is willing, or more to the point, capable, of being equally ruthless with the trades’ unions.

A completely different point, which I have been mulling over for the last few days. I am currently reading this book which argues that the Baby Boomers set up society to serve only themselves and ripped off their children in the process. The author is an American writing about the US, but I think it applies to quite a lot of developed countries. ISTM that a significant but rather overlooked element of recent elections is that France has just become the first developed country to kick the Boomers out of office. Dégagisme* isn’t just about the established parties, it’s about saying wealthy old white people don’t get to run the show anymore. Macron is 39. The average REM deputy is 45. Macron has already announced the colour, as the French say, by overtly saying he is going to put up social charges, including on pensions, because wealthy retirees haven’t been paying their fair share.

* I think the translation of this should be something like “getoutism” although for my own entertainment I am going to offer “buggeroffism”. Basically the desire to kick out the status quo.

[ETA missing word]

[ 21. June 2017, 09:18: Message edited by: la vie en rouge ]
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
Here's an interesting article explaining all the symbolism in Macron's presidential photo. He doesn't leave much to chance.
 

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Posted by simontoad (# 18096) on :
 
While listening to an episode of the News Quiz aired before the UK election, I heard Miles Jupp use his schoolboy French to translate Macron's Republique En Marche as "People of the Swamp". Stupid? Sure. But I wet myself laughing, metaphorically of course.
 

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Posted by stonespring (# 15530) on :
 
Macron has spoken about changing the French electoral system to be more proportional. Does he realize that he could never have won under a strictly-PR system? Or does he want to do something like Australian House of Representatives (instant runoff voting, rather than the current two-round system), which isn't PR but does result in more widely-deemed "acceptable" candidates being elected? Or something in-between like STV in the Irish Dail - which can result in lots of independents being elected that all want money and other perks for their districts and can make achieving working majorities very difficult? He wants to reduce the number of MPs and do other changes that he says he will bring to a referendum if Parliament does not pass them. Would a referendum just result in a protest vote against the government like the one that brought down Matteo Renzi in Italy? Is this wise?
 

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