UBB.classicTM 6.5.0
quote:Yep - that's the problem right there. The people of Greece et al need to get off their butts and start creating some wealth rather than expecting the government to keep handing it to them for free, because their government is fresh out of cash. No amount of rioting is going to change that one simple fact.
Originally posted by the long ranger:
Even if the governments capitulated to the demands of the public, where would the money come from?
quote:Marvin that really is a travesty of what is happening. The Euro-Madness is gradually grinding down and destroying the economies of Southern Europe by saddling them with an uncompetitive currency and in so doing destroying millions of jobs. I am sure most unemployed people in Greece, Italy, Spain etc do want to get off their butts and start creating some wealth but do not have the opportunity. The money is needed just to keep basic services in place. The British would have been in the same mess if we had gone into the Euro as wished for by Blair, Clegg et al. France is already heading the way of the PIIGS.
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:Yep - that's the problem right there. The people of Greece et al need to get off their butts and start creating some wealth rather than expecting the government to keep handing it to them for free, because their government is fresh out of cash. No amount of rioting is going to change that one simple fact.
Originally posted by the long ranger:
Even if the governments capitulated to the demands of the public, where would the money come from?
Of course, what they want is for some other country's government to start handing them free cash now they've wrung their own government dry. But that ain't gonna happen, and nor should it.
quote:Have you forgotten the seventies, or are you young enough not to remember them as an adult? It was touch and go then. The medicine was extremely painful. It remains controversial to this day. But the alternative is unimaginably horrid.
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
... There are enough of them alive still to remember the last time they slipped off into the abyss. The UK has never truly had this experience, and as a result they can continue playing political games and painting Europe as the big baddy - a game that is very distasteful to the rest of Europe, and I suspect that Europe will eventually tire of such games and ask the UK to make a more serious commitment or leave....
quote:The problem with this is that there is no "et al". Spain was running government surpluses before the economic collapse of 2008. Ireland had a lower national debt (as a proportion of GDP) than Germany. With the single exception of Greece, the current economic woes of the GIPSI nations weren't caused by government profligacy under any reasonable definition of the term, and pretending it was has led to a lot of counterproductive policies being enacted.
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:Yep - that's the problem right there. The people of Greece et al need to get off their butts and start creating some wealth rather than expecting the government to keep handing it to them for free, because their government is fresh out of cash. No amount of rioting is going to change that one simple fact.
Originally posted by the long ranger:
Even if the governments capitulated to the demands of the public, where would the money come from?
Of course, what they want is for some other country's government to start handing them free cash now they've wrung their own government dry. But that ain't gonna happen, and nor should it.
quote:Yes and after the world went into an economic downspin those countries trapped in the Euro have been unable to do anything to revive their economies apart from passing the begging bowl to the Germans. They have no possibility of bringing back competitiveness through devaluation so must instead go through a deflationary depression. Or am I totally mistaken and there is no economic problem in Southern Europe caused by Euro membership? I fear you are deluded if you think that.
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Aumbry, you really need to get off that one trick pony. It seems to have escaped your notice time and time again as to why most of the world went into a economic downspin in the last five years.We already know you would love it to be all Europe's fault, but that argument is at best a childish slur and at worst a xenophobia that uses politics as a foil
quote:I don't think that is correct.
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
The rioting is taking place because there is a perception that if they burn enough cars and destroy enough buildings they can convince the government and the rest of Europe that they can go back to the way things were.
quote:Resisting the desire to pun on your name.....
Have you forgotten the seventies, or are you young enough not to remember them as an adult?
quote:While I can't say I think it's so clear cut and as noble as you suggest, ultimately the people in Greece still get to vote and have the power to, at the very least put pressure on a corrupt and self serving government that props up a rich elite (if in fact that is whats going on).
AIUI a lot of the anger in Greece comes from a perception that poor people are being penalised for the tax evasion of the rich and the incompetence of the government. Greek budget cuts will not hurt either politicians or tax-evading shipping magnates but they will hurt old people and the unemployed.
quote:Yeah, yeah, yeah. And maybe the Uk's economic woes would be better solved with a different currency in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, and The United States will be able to magic jobs from the cabbage patch by splitting up and each one having their own currency, and maybe even Europe could split up again and we can send half of them down the pan into the 1700's again and not bother a jot about being our brother's keeper. Now that would achieve exactly what?
Yes and after the world went into an economic downspin those countries trapped in the Euro have been unable to do anything to revive their economies apart from passing the begging bowl to the Germans. They have no possibility of bringing back competitiveness through devaluation so must instead go through a deflationary depression. Or am I totally mistaken and there is no economic problem in Southern Europe caused by Euro membership? I fear you are deluded if you think that.
quote:Isn't that the usual explanation given for the rising popularity of the Golden Dawn? That people believe they'll take on "a corrupt and self serving government"?
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
quote:While I can't say I think it's so clear cut and as noble as you suggest, ultimately the people in Greece still get to vote and have the power to, at the very least put pressure on a corrupt and self serving government that props up a rich elite (if in fact that is whats going on).
posted by Ricardus:
AIUI a lot of the anger in Greece comes from a perception that poor people are being penalised for the tax evasion of the rich and the incompetence of the government. Greek budget cuts will not hurt either politicians or tax-evading shipping magnates but they will hurt old people and the unemployed.
quote:Despite your aparent contempt for the subject, economists spend a lot of time and effort analyzing optimum currency areas. I've never heard the Eurozone convincingly described as such. The usual "debating" tactic is a bunch of fluffy, feel-good sentiments about unity, coupled with an outright contempt for anyone raising technocratic objections to workability. [See your own argument above.]
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
quote:Yeah, yeah, yeah. And maybe the Uk's economic woes would be better solved with a different currency in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, and The United States will be able to magic jobs from the cabbage patch by splitting up and each one having their own currency, and maybe even Europe could split up again and we can send half of them down the pan into the 1700's again and not bother a jot about being our brother's keeper. Now that would achieve exactly what?
posted by Aumbry:
Yes and after the world went into an economic downspin those countries trapped in the Euro have been unable to do anything to revive their economies apart from passing the begging bowl to the Germans. They have no possibility of bringing back competitiveness through devaluation so must instead go through a deflationary depression. Or am I totally mistaken and there is no economic problem in Southern Europe caused by Euro membership? I fear you are deluded if you think that.
quote:Nah Nah Nah - Your suggestion that British regions might be better served by having their own currencies allowing them to set their levels of competiveness against say London and the South East has a lot going for it, certainly much more than having say the North of England's economy straitjacketed by what would be the best exchange rate set by Frankfurt for the Euro. In fact with technology the ability to manage smaller currency areas gains a lot of traction.
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
posted by Aumbry:
quote:Yeah, yeah, yeah. And maybe the Uk's economic woes would be better solved with a different currency in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, and The United States will be able to magic jobs from the cabbage patch by splitting up and each one having their own currency, and maybe even Europe could split up again and we can send half of them down the pan into the 1700's again and not bother a jot about being our brother's keeper. Now that would achieve exactly what?
Yes and after the world went into an economic downspin those countries trapped in the Euro have been unable to do anything to revive their economies apart from passing the begging bowl to the Germans. They have no possibility of bringing back competitiveness through devaluation so must instead go through a deflationary depression. Or am I totally mistaken and there is no economic problem in Southern Europe caused by Euro membership? I fear you are deluded if you think that.
quote:uh-hu
Nah Nah Nah - Your suggestion that British regions might be better served by having their own currencies allowing them to set their levels of competiveness against say London and the South East has a lot going for it, certainly much more than having say the North of England's economy straitjacketed by what would be the best exchange rate set by Frankfurt for the Euro. In fact with technology the ability to manage smaller currency areas gains a lot of traction.
quote:Thats an interesting reading of Ireland's economic woes - but it's not true. So what is your magical solution to the Western world's economic downturn? Everybody split up and go it alone?
The Euro area is a disaster because it is not only a one size fits all but it covers so many disparate economies. As has been pointed out some countries such as Spain and Ireland had budget surpluses before 2008 but these were destroyed by the crash following the property boom which itself was a product of the wrong interest and exchange rates set by the European Central Bank.
quote:I kinda like that 'fluffy' stuff about unity and I'd much rather live in a world where nations and people can work together rather than working against each other and constantly thinking the absolute worst about our neighbours.That may be 'fluffy' to you, but it's damned important to me, and possibly a good many others.
The usual "debating" tactic is a bunch of fluffy, feel-good sentiments about unity
quote:Because it is a single political entity and its population does not begrudge the transfer of wealth to balance the differences between richer and poorer regions. It has also gained enormous benefits from having the dollar as the world's reserve currency the advantages of which make it acceptable to regions which might otherwise have benefited from having their own currency. There is no similar rationale for the Euro as its member states have by and large totally separate economies and taxation systems and as for transfers between the constituent member states we know how popular that would be.
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Ok, apart from that tiny little thing called the Common Market, why should the USA have the dollar as common currency?
quote:And why exactly is a single currency necessary for people to work together? Why is a single currency necessary to prevent us thinking the worst of our neighbours?
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
posted by Croseos:
quote:I kinda like that 'fluffy' stuff about unity and I'd much rather live in a world where nations and people can work together rather than working against each other and constantly thinking the absolute worst about our neighbours.That may be 'fluffy' to you, but it's damned important to me, and possibly a good many others.
The usual "debating" tactic is a bunch of fluffy, feel-good sentiments about unity
quote:Except that the Euro is having the exact opposite effect whereby Mrs Merkel is greeted in Spain, Portugal and Greece with people dressed as Nazi Stormtroopers and the Germans have become the sort of bogeymen that they were seen to be at the end of the war whilst the North stereotypes the South as lazy and feckless.It has provided all sorts of opportunities for extremist parties too.
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
posted by Croseos:
quote:I kinda like that 'fluffy' stuff about unity and I'd much rather live in a world where nations and people can work together rather than working against each other and constantly thinking the absolute worst about our neighbours.That may be 'fluffy' to you, but it's damned important to me, and possibly a good many others.
The usual "debating" tactic is a bunch of fluffy, feel-good sentiments about unity
quote:There is a good discussion to be had here but sadly...... not with you.
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
posted by Aumbry:
quote:uh-hu
Nah Nah Nah - Your suggestion that British regions might be better served by having their own currencies allowing them to set their levels of competiveness against say London and the South East has a lot going for it, certainly much more than having say the North of England's economy straitjacketed by what would be the best exchange rate set by Frankfurt for the Euro. In fact with technology the ability to manage smaller currency areas gains a lot of traction.
quote:Thats an interesting reading of Ireland's economic woes - but it's not true. So what is your magical solution to the Western world's economic downturn? Everybody split up and go it alone?
The Euro area is a disaster because it is not only a one size fits all but it covers so many disparate economies. As has been pointed out some countries such as Spain and Ireland had budget surpluses before 2008 but these were destroyed by the crash following the property boom which itself was a product of the wrong interest and exchange rates set by the European Central Bank.
quote:It isn't, but Europe is about more than just the Euro.
And why exactly is a single currency necessary for people to work together?
quote:Good question. The short answer is that the U.S. has a stronger central authority and greater labor mobility than the Eurozone.
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Ok, apart from that tiny little thing called the Common Market, why should the USA have the dollar as common currency?
quote:Then don't talk to him. Comments like that are not at all conducive to discussion.
Originally posted by aumbry:
There is a good discussion to be had here but sadly...... not with you.
quote:While the Euro was a bad idea implemented more for emotional than technocratic reasons, the deed is done and any reasoning has to acknowledge the currently-existing Eurozone as the base case from which arguments going forward must proceed. So, are the consequences of a country leaving the Euro dire? Yes. They're likely to include, as you mentioned, poverty and an extended depression.
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Croseos, that's fair enough. I know the euro isn't perfect, especially since I live in a Eurozone, but I'm not convinced that pulling out of the Euro (much as I would truly love my old coinage and notes back) right now would make good economic sense. I think the likely outcome would be that some of the less stable countries in Europe would go back to the dark ages with extreme poverty, while others might survive but with an extended depression. I think it would be a huge risk and it's a risk that involves many millions of peoples' lives essentially.
quote:No, but it would mean they would be unlikely to have to face an economic depression based on the productivity disparities within the EU again, and it would provide them with a tool (currency devaluation) with a fairly decent track record of resolving this particular type of depression.
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
I'm not convinced that the creation of an independent currency means that they will never face economic depression again, or that by having an independent currency means that it will somehow get them out of an economic lull.
quote:Europe is indeed more than just currency. For instance, the UK and Sweden are both members of the EU even though both are outside the Eurozone. Sweden has done fairly well in the current economic downturn, in part because it still controls its own currency. The UK is mostly suffering from the "unforced error" of implementing a lot of unnecessary austerity, mostly for ideosyncratic political reasons.
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
I realise on the other hand that the nature of the Western world's economic woes at present have exposed what could turn out to be a fatal weakness in the Euro in the longer term, but essentially it boils down to risk management as you say, and on the whole I see Europe as more than just about it's currency. It's about both economic and political stability, and other issues like common policy and human rights etc. It's not perfect, but I think its worth a bloody good go.
quote:Sure, but the point is that while unity among nations is a worthwhile, non-fluffy goal, the logical relationship between unity and a single currency is fluffy, which I think is what Croesos was getting at.
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
posted by Ricardus:
quote:It isn't, but Europe is about more than just the Euro.
And why exactly is a single currency necessary for people to work together?
quote:I have yet to meet Germans who "loathe" Greeks and I doubt we'd see demonstrations, flag-burning, puppet-lynching and riots should Mr Samaras find the time to visit Berlin. I also doubt that Greeks in general "loathe" us. But those who do get a lot of attention because the media are fond of riots and Hitler costumes.
Originally posted by Ricardus:
Look how the Germans and the Greeks loathe each other.
quote:This reminds of the early 90s when one still bought bank notes at home and brought them on holiday. I found at least one German bank that sold Scottish bank notes cheaper (about 1.5 percent) than English ones. Within the UK both were worth the same.
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
And maybe the Uk's economic woes would be better solved with a different currency in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland
quote:OK, 'loathe' was a bit hyperbolic. I was thinking of articles like this or this from Bild.
Originally posted by Sylvander:
I have yet to meet Germans who "loathe" Greeks and I doubt we'd see demonstrations, flag-burning, puppet-lynching and riots should Mr Samaras find the time to visit Berlin. I also doubt that Greeks in general "loathe" us. But those who do get a lot of attention because the media are fond of riots and Hitler costumes.
quote:And where are your efforts in this discussion then?
Originally posted by Gwai:
quote:Then don't talk to him. Comments like that are not at all conducive to discussion.
Originally posted by aumbry:
There is a good discussion to be had here but sadly...... not with you.
![[Mad]](angryfire.gif)
.quote:Thanks for this, Ricardus.
Originally posted by Ricardus:
I was thinking of articles like this or this from Bild.
.quote:I was trying to not have to put on my host hat to deal with your comment. If you prefer:
Originally posted by aumbry:
quote:And where are your efforts in this discussion then?
Originally posted by Gwai:
quote:Then don't talk to him. Comments like that are not at all conducive to discussion.
Originally posted by aumbry:
There is a good discussion to be had here but sadly...... not with you.
quote:Given the insistence on austerity, don't those articles come across as "you should continue the layoffs until it improves your employment rate"? This sounds an awful lot like Mellon's liquidationism. Any reason to think it'll work better this time around?
Originally posted by Ricardus:
OK, 'loathe' was a bit hyperbolic. I was thinking of articles like this or this from Bild.
quote:There have been attempts at political union of sorts, but its muddied and has to an extent lost its way more recently in light of other pressing concerns. But at the time when the EU was emerging, Europe was coming out of a frightening time when lots of dictatorships and even communist block countries where collapsing. Now for many of us at the time on the edge of Europe this all looked great, but I suspect if you were living beside such a state you were quickly beginning to wonder what would replace it and the fear of 'failed states' would have been very real. Part of the idea of the EU was to provide some sense of cohesiveness in what was essentially a very turbulent time that could have turned very nasty and frightening very quickly. The Euro was part of that scheme, along with the common market.
Once the EU was expanded to its current size any attempt at a joint currency without political union was going to be doomed, simply because it requires some degree of equalisation of economic activity that will take decades to achieve, if it is at all possible. And that's to put to one side the other requirement which would be, effectively, political union.
quote:Having gone to the trouble to explain the effect of the Euro on Southern Europe in some detail I had a reply that consisted of a link to a picture of Doctor Evil, I do not think my comments were unreasonable in the light of this.
Originally posted by Gwai:
quote:I was trying to not have to put on my host hat to deal with your comment. If you prefer:
Originally posted by aumbry:
quote:And where are your efforts in this discussion then?
Originally posted by Gwai:
quote:Then don't talk to him. Comments like that are not at all conducive to discussion.
Originally posted by aumbry:
There is a good discussion to be had here but sadly...... not with you.
Purgatory is a debating forum. Let's stick to comments that add light to the discussion.
Thanks.
Gwai,
Purg Host
quote:Hostly Hat ON
Originally posted by aumbry:
Having gone to the trouble to explain the effect of the Euro on Southern Europe in some detail I had a reply that consisted of a link to a picture of Doctor Evil, I do not think my comments were unreasonable in the light of this.
quote:Well Gwai's intervention was not originally in her capacity as Host and I did not know that she was a host. She clearly did not read the posts before making the original intervention. As for being referred to admini - whadever!
Originally posted by tclune:
quote:Hostly Hat ON
Originally posted by aumbry:
Having gone to the trouble to explain the effect of the Euro on Southern Europe in some detail I had a reply that consisted of a link to a picture of Doctor Evil, I do not think my comments were unreasonable in the light of this.
Aumbry, you've been around here long enough to know that any discusion of a Hostly call belongs in Styx. Drop this now, or it will be referred to an admin.
--Tom Clune, Purgatory Host
Hostly Hat OFF
quote:When you live in a small country at the mercy of the financial markets, having your own currency is not all its cracked up to be. If you are in a country with its own economy that is not as dependent on outsiders as Ireland is (ie, the UK), then those who want to can flag wave their own currency as much as they like and be fleeced by the financial institutions making money off the back of currency changing.
Originally posted by Sighthound:
The problem, surely, is that to make the Euro work properly you need political union. This is O Level economics stuff.
The problem is that although folk quite like the idea of not having to change currency when they go on holiday, there is minimal public desire for such a union. In the UK, a change to a socialist republic would likely get more votes. (That is 5% rather than 2%, in case anyone thinks me deluded.)
I just don't understand the mentality of apparently serious politicians who believed the Euro would work across a so-called union of states with different policies and levels of economic prosperity. They were naive at best.
quote:Admin Tiara On
Originally posted by aumbry:
quote:Well Gwai's intervention was not originally in her capacity as Host and I did not know that she was a host. She clearly did not read the posts before making the original intervention. As for being referred to admini - whadever!
Originally posted by tclune:
quote:Hostly Hat ON
Originally posted by aumbry:
Having gone to the trouble to explain the effect of the Euro on Southern Europe in some detail I had a reply that consisted of a link to a picture of Doctor Evil, I do not think my comments were unreasonable in the light of this.
Aumbry, you've been around here long enough to know that any discusion of a Hostly call belongs in Styx. Drop this now, or it will be referred to an admin.
--Tom Clune, Purgatory Host
Hostly Hat OFF
quote:Maybe I'm just not understanding the argument you're making here. By my reading of the data, Irish jobs numbers are still hugely depressed, at more than triple the pre-crisis rate of unemployment and with a general trend continuing in the wrong direction. Are you saying that's not really the case, or that such a massive rise in joblessness isn't really that big a deal, or that local jobs figures in the vicinity of Dublin (which I haven't really examined) are much better than the rest of the country, so it's no big deal as long as the capital isn't affected?
Originally posted by Ronald Binge:
Four years down the line, most people in the Greater Dublin Area still have jobs and the much vaunted meltdown of society hasn't happened, very much to the disappointment of the far Left.
quote:Really what I'm saying is that from the perspective of the majority of people who vote here, things aren't great but the society hasn't crumbled the way that the anti-EU people hoped it would.
Originally posted by Crœsos:
quote:Maybe I'm just not understanding the argument you're making here. By my reading of the data, Irish jobs numbers are still hugely depressed, at more than triple the pre-crisis rate of unemployment and with a general trend continuing in the wrong direction. Are you saying that's not really the case, or that such a massive rise in joblessness isn't really that big a deal, or that local jobs figures in the vicinity of Dublin (which I haven't really examined) are much better than the rest of the country, so it's no big deal as long as the capital isn't affected?
Originally posted by Ronald Binge:
Four years down the line, most people in the Greater Dublin Area still have jobs and the much vaunted meltdown of society hasn't happened, very much to the disappointment of the far Left.
A bit of clarification, if you don't mind?
quote:"Society hasn't completely collapsed" seems a fairly minimal standard to meet. I'm not sure it's a good way to gauge the success of an economic policy.
Originally posted by Ronald Binge:
Really what I'm saying is that from the perspective of the majority of people who vote here, things aren't great but the society hasn't crumbled the way that the anti-EU people hoped it would.
quote:How are Iceland (another small island on the edge of Europe) doing? OK, they had it really bad for a while, but aren't they picking themselves up pretty nicely now?
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
I suppose the question is really; would we be in a better situation now of we were not on the Euro? ... Being a tiny island on the edge of Europe
quote:Why would you think that? There can't be that many tiny island nations on the edge of Europe.
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
That may be true, but I think it would likely be possible to give just as many countries to support that view as it would to dismiss it.
quote:Indeed they did. Compare the results.
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
But Iceland handled their banking crisis rather differently as far as I recall.
quote:Yes. Because they were able to. Their whole economic system wasn't being forced to use a currency over which they had no control.
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
But Iceland handled their banking crisis rather differently as far as I recall.
quote:So being able to devalue their currency allowed Icelanders to achieve a more favorable balance of trade, cutting short a recession? That's not a problem, that was the plan! It's a better alternative to having to go through a period of very painful internal devaluation, achieved mostly through an extended period of high unemployment and associated human suffering. Unfortunately if a country doesn't control its own currency, it's the only option available in a situation like the current one.
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Not quite. The Krona is horrifically devalued at the moment with one euro able to buy over a hundred and sixty krona. Now in Iceland this is somewhat helpful at the moment because they have had an aggressive business expansion (mainly into UK stores) and they have massively increased the fishing exports.
quote:First off, the krona never traded at parity with the Euro. In 2007, before the crisis, the typical exchange rate was just under 90 krona per Euro. So the cost to construct what used to be a one million krona building would be about 1.8 million krona, but only if you used nothing but imported materials and labor to build it. Domestic prices will inflate gradually under the effects of the currency devaluation, but will do so more or less in line with the growth rate of the GDP. Yes, the flip side of boosting exports using this tactic is a rise in the cost of imports, but generally this means a rise in consumption of domestic substitutes. Where no domestic substitute is available, there's usually a combination of reduced consumption and price increase (but it's only an increase when measured in the local currency).
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
It all sounds great, doesn't it; but what happens when you need something that your quarter of a million people country doesn't produce...like say, medication? What happens when you need a special building made of materials you don't produce? Suddenly your one million krona building costs you 162 million krona, and thats before you even pay specialist labour - who likely won't want to be paid in crappy utterly worthless krona either.
quote:When one lives in a small country, one is at the mercy of the world markets anyway, in various ways. Because the economy is small, it is less diverse. If it is based on primary exports, fluctuations in the commodity markets make the difference between boom and recession.
Originally posted by Ronald Binge:
When you live in a small country at the mercy of the financial markets, having your own currency is not all its cracked up to be. If you are in a country with its own economy that is not as dependent on outsiders as Ireland is (ie, the UK), then those who want to can flag wave their own currency as much as they like and be fleeced by the financial institutions making money off the back of currency changing.
If for whatever reason Ireland ends up outside the Euro most people with any cop-on here would prefer to restore the link with Sterling. An independent Irish Pound would be a disaster.