Ship of Fools: The Scottish Play

Thread: The Scottish Play Board: Oblivion / Ship of Fools.

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Posted by Tulfes (# 18000) on :

Can we start a prediction thread? Winner is s/he who gets closest (to the aggregate difference) to the turnout, yes and no vote.

Prize is a chance to kiss Alex Salmond goodbye (if No wins) or David Cameron (if Yes wins, as he will definitely be resigning).

Here goes:-

Turnout. 82%
Yes. 42%
No. 58%

Posted by Boogie (# 13538) on :

Turnout. 73%
Yes. 39%
No. 61%

(And £10 on this thread whooshing to the Circus [Biased]

)

Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :

hosting/

And so it shall be, because that's where this type of thread belongs.

Boogie, you can donate your £10 to the Organ Fund [Biased]

/hosting

Posted by Chesterbelloc (# 3128) on :

Tempting fate, but here goes:

Turnout: 70%
Yes: 42%
No: 58%

Posted by Deputy Verger (# 15876) on :

Huh? Boogie won that one. You owe her!

How about this conundrum:

Vote turnout 66%.
Yes: 50%
No: 50%

Making equal parts yes, no, and don't know/care.

Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :

quote:
Originally posted by Deputy Verger:
Huh? Boogie won that one. You owe her!

Once it has been decided who the "you" is, she can give her winnings to the Organ Fund in a show of generosity [Big Grin]

And since I'm here, now, and don't have the faintest idea...

Vote turnout 60.4%.
Yes: 25.7%
No: 74.3%

By the way, how is the winner of this thread going to be determined, tulfes?

Posted by Boogie (# 13538) on :

quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:

Boogie, you can donate your £10 to the Organ Fund.

Done!

Posted by Welease Woderwick (# 10424) on :

Much though I long for the resignation of Cameron I rather hope it won't be through this.

Turnout: 62%
Yes: 35%
No: 65%

Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on :

Turn out: 78%
Och ayes: 43.2%
Aye rights*: 53.5%
Spoilt papers: 3.3% (a record).

*A sarcastic variant of "definitely not"

Posted by piglet (# 11803) on :

Turnout: 71%
Yes: 41%
No: 57%
Spoiled votes: 2%

Posted by Tulfes (# 18000) on :

I think you're all underestimating the turnout. All reputable sources are predicting 80% plus.

Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on :

quote:
Originally posted by Tulfes:
I think you're all underestimating the turnout. All reputable sources are predicting 80% plus.

Depends how you read it. As a new register has been created purely for the referendum then a high proportion of those on the register will probably vote, as many of those who won't vote won't register either.

On the other hand it could be that fine old Irish principle of "Vote early, vote often".

Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :

Turnout: 72%
Yes: 46%
No: 53%
Spoiled ballots: 1%

Posted by North East Quine (# 13049) on :

Turnout 78%

Yes - 51%
No- 49%

Posted by pimple (# 10635) on :

Turnout 76%

Yes 43%

No 55%

Spoiled/Lost 2%

Posted by Oscar the Grouch (# 1916) on :

Turnout - 69%

Yes - 47.9%

No - 52.1%

(And Alex Salmond doesn't resign, but vows to fight on and force another referendum until he gets the "right" answer)

Posted by Heavenly Anarchist (# 13313) on :

Turnout 79%
Yes 45%
No 55%

Posted by Jonah the Whale (# 1244) on :

79.2
48.8
51.1

[ 29. August 2014, 12:50: Message edited by: Jonah the Whale ]

Posted by Jack the Lass (# 3415) on :

Turnout 82%.

Yes 46%
No 54%

Posted by Doublethink (# 1984) on :

Turnout 62%

Yes 47%
No 51%
Spoiled 2%

Posted by Tulfes (# 18000) on :

The result will be declared as percentages of the non spoiled vote.So those who have included a spoiled percentage may wish to repost with straight yes/no percentages.

Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on :

Revised without spoilt papers

Turn out: 78%
Och ayes: 44.9%
Aye rights*: 55.1%

*A sarcastic variant of "definitely not"

Posted by Tulfes (# 18000) on :

PS turnout predictions are 75% to 80% minimum so those down in the 60's may wish to rethink and repost. Just saying.

Posted by Tulfes (# 18000) on :

Oh, and Yes is gaining ground so result may be very close. Reposting acceptable up to 10pm on the 18th.

Posted by Tulfes (# 18000) on :

Some bloke in Kent or the like has placed an £800K bet on a No victory. Hope he doesn't want to repost. Too late matey.

Posted by Tulfes (# 18000) on :

REVISED PREDICTION

Turnout 84% of those registered
Yes 48% of vote
No 52% of vote

Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :

Revised to

Turnout: 72%
Yes: 56%
No: 44%

Posted by TheAlethiophile (# 16870) on :

Current prediction:

Turnout: 73.3%
Yes: 44.8%
No: 55.2%

Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on :

Turnout: 76.25%

Yes: 37.4%
No: 62.6%

[ 08. September 2014, 10:42: Message edited by: Anglican't ]

Posted by Albertus (# 13356) on :

Turnout 74.8%

Yes 49.7%
No 50.3%

Posted by Spawn (# 4867) on :

Turnout: 75

Yes: 37
No: 62

Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :

My prediction

T: 82%
Y: 45%
N: 55%

And now for the real fun, some maths... [Biased]

quote:
Originally posted by Tulfes:
Winner is s/he who gets closest (to the aggregate difference) to the turnout, yes and no vote.

First, it makes sense to consider absolute values of the difference, rather than the difference itself. For example, if the turnout is

T = 85%

then both predictions

T_1 = 80%

and

T_2 = 90%

should be considered equally good or bad. This you can achieve by computing the absolute value

|T - T_1| = |T - T_2| = 5%

But since Yes and No are not independent (Yes = 100% - No, assuming "Invalid" is negligible or not counted), you are in fact double counting. Let's say the results are:

T = 80%, Y = 40%, N = 60%

and the player predicts

T_P = 75%, Y_P = 48%, N_P = 52%

then the differences are

Delta_T = -5%, Delta_Y = -8%, Delta_N = +8%

Note that Delta_Y = -Delta_N. This will always be the case. If you add absolutes, you will hence double count the vote split:

|Delta_T| + |Delta_Y| + |Delta_N| = |Delta_T| + 2 * |Delta_Y| = 21%

If you added without absolute values, it would be even more disastrous, you would flat out eliminate the vote split! I suggest to add only the absolute differences concerning the turnout and the yes vote, so for our example

|Delta_T| + |Delta_Y| = 13%

Finally, as an alternative you may wish to rate negatively larger deviations more than smaller ones. This you can do by using squares of the differences rather than absolute values, as one does when calculating variances of distributions. For example, we might have two players with the following results:

Delta_T1 = -8%, Delta_Y1 = 2%

Delta_T2 = +5%, Delta_Y2 = -5%

If we add absolute differences, then they are equally good

|Delta_T1| + |Delta_Y1| = |Delta_T2| + |Delta_Y2| = 10%

but if we add squares, we penalise the big deviation:

Delta_T1 ^ 2 + Delta_Y1 ^ 2 = 65 %^2

vs.

Delta_T2 ^ 2 + Delta_Y2 ^ 2 = 50 %^2

I think this would be the best solution.

Posted by TheAlethiophile (# 16870) on :

Ingo, while your methodology is sound, did you read what the prize was? You seem a little bit...um.....keen.

quote:
Originally posted by Tulfes:
Prize is a chance to kiss Alex Salmond goodbye (if No wins) or David Cameron (if Yes wins, as he will definitely be resigning).

Posted by TurquoiseTastic (# 8978) on :

Turnout: 95%
Yes: 50%
No: 50%

Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :

quote:
Originally posted by TheAlethiophile:
Ingo, while your methodology is sound, did you read what the prize was? You seem a little bit...um.....keen.

quote:
Originally posted by Tulfes:
Prize is a chance to kiss Alex Salmond goodbye (if No wins) or David Cameron (if Yes wins, as he will definitely be resigning).

Well, I hope the kissing bit was meant metaphorically... Though if it would remove either one of these gentleman from power, I think I would make the sacrifice.

Posted by Og: Thread Killer (# 3200) on :

Turnout: 82%

Yes: 52.1%

No: 47.9%

Posted by Tulfes (# 18000) on :

Updated forecast:

Turnout 91%
Yes. 47%
No. 53%

Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :

Update to my predictions:

T: 88.0%
Y: 46.5%
N: 53.5%

Posted by TheAlethiophile (# 16870) on :

My updated prediction:

Turnout: 84%
Yes: 48.7%
No: 51.3%

Posted by The Rogue (# 2275) on :

Turnout 91%
Yes 41%
No 59%

Posted by North East Quine (# 13049) on :

Turnout 85%
Yes **.5 %
No 49.5%

Posted by kingsfold (# 1726) on :

Turn out 92%

Aye: 44.6
Naw: 55.4

Posted by Boogie (# 13538) on :

quote:
Crap spouted by Heavenly Anarchist:
Turnout 79%
Yes 45%
No 55%

Hurrah!

You won [Big Grin]

What's the prize??

Posted by North East Quine (# 13049) on :

quote:
T: 82%
Y: 45%
N: 55%

Ingo B came closer as he almost got the turnout right, too.

Pucker up, IngoB!

Posted by North East Quine (# 13049) on :

And * , for one, would bung £10 into the Organ Fund to see a photo of Ingo B snogging Alex Salmond.

Posted by kingsfold (# 1726) on :

Hold your horses peeps, the votes aren'yt all in yet.

The Highland area result isn't yet in, and whilst they don't have enough votes to overturn the NO vote, it may change the percentages...

Posted by IngoB (# 8700) on :

quote:
Crap spouted by North East Quine:
Ingo B came closer as he almost got the turnout right, too.

Pucker up, IngoB!

* would have been on the money, but * changed my prediction!

Posted by Baptist Trainfan (# 15128) on :

quote:
Crap spouted by kingsfold:
Hold your horses peeps, the votes aren'yt all in yet.

The Highland area result isn't yet in, and whilst they don't have enough votes to overturn the NO vote, it may change the percentages...

They're in now, not much change in the grand scheme of things ...

Posted by kingsfold (# 1726) on :

quote:
posted by Baptist Trainfan:
They're in now, not much change in the grand scheme of things ...

Didn't really expect them to make much change, but * don't know whether that changed who came tops in the prediction stakes...

Final call:
No 55.3%
Yes 44.7%

turnout 84.5%.

(or 55;45;85 if we're running on whole numbers)

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