Ship of Fools: What will it take the EU to unite?

Thread: What will it take the EU to unite? Board: Oblivion / Ship of Fools.

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Posted by mrWaters (# 18171) on :

Since the EU's inception, the organisation has been integrating like crazy, up to the point of introduction of the half-baked Euro. The currency is undoubtedly its most ambitious project which is in poor shape due to not enough integration between states. More recently the Europeans' security services had stupid amount of problems tracking suspects and conducting investigations between France and Brussels which are really close to each other.

As you might imagine I am a strong supporter of EU integration. I would be one of those 50 people that would cheer the EU national football team if one existed. However I'm not interested in debating whether I'm right or wrong. I'm interested in question of whether my dream of unified EU is possible and more importantly at what cost.

A friend once told me that it would take another great European war to achieve that. Does anyone see other possibilities?

Posted by Leorning Cniht (# 17564) on :

quote:
Originally posted by mrWaters:
I'm interested in question of whether my dream of unified EU is possible and more importantly at what cost.

Currently, the federalists talk the talk, but as soon as there's a whiff of trouble on the horizon, everyone runs to their national boundaries and points fingers at other countries. That's a problem for your dream.

I'm not sure that the EU's eastern expansion has aided the goals of early unification, either. The merger of a number of fairly similar, maturely-developed countries in western Europe is a different prospect from the incorporation of a number of significantly poorer countries.

(I think the EU's expansion was the right thing to do, and that delaying the goals of the integrationists by a generation is a reasonable price to pay.)

Posted by mrWaters (# 18171) on :

I know all too well problems with my dream. It is after all very human to think first of yourself and your community (once upon a time it was a tribe, nowadays it's a nation). EU and Brussels is synonymous with bureaucracy and no one cares to understand all the good that is in works there. Another problem is that very few people think of themselves as Europeans first and not Greeks or Italians.

Europe widened instead of going deeper. That was the easy route, and politicians do hate courageous projects. It was great for millions of people living in the new EU members, including myself not that long ago, however I believe it was a bad choice for Europe. Can you imagine how hard it is to negotiate some kind of an important bill with 28 states? And if just a single state vetoes it is not always possible to overrule it.

I'm wondering what sort of changes would need to happen for EU to unite even more. Certainly, popular movement would be wonderful, however it seems unrealistic for me. Maybe I'm very unlucky but I meet very few people who share my views on federalization. To me it seems like the unification can come only from those few in power. The refugee crisis created the European border agency which is very limited in scope but apparently it can work in any member state. Going with the same logic - certainly a war would force action (the NATO deterrent is at best dubious). Can we reasonably expect any other circumstances for EU to unite further? I'm not so sure, I hope.

One thing that may turn out good is that with UK gone, non-eurozone states are almost insignificant and those countries are much more resistant to unification then the currency union ones. Europe of two speeds is real and the speed may change even further in the future. Or so I hope, I mean better if just a part of Europe federalizes than none at all.

Posted by Ronald Binge (# 9002) on :

For years in Ireland the mainly Fianna Fáil led governments ran for cover and blamed Europe for any potentially unpopular decisions. Now, years later, our politicians affect surprise about the largely inchoate but noisy opposition to the EU by the radical Left and assorted nationalists. Official Ireland has largely contented itself by assuming most of us (me included) don't want to go back to The Good Old Days of the Republic as a poverty stricken source of cattle and UK/US manual labourers.

What happens then, if those who don't remember just how screwed we were by autarky, think it might be a bit of crack to
give Europe a bloody nose? It's bad enough trying to work out just how buggered we could be by Brexit to work that one out.

Posted by anteater (# 11435) on :

mrWaters:
Can you fill out what you mean by "Unite"? Before brexit, a two tier EU seemsed to be likely with the Eurozone uniting further, probably triggered by another euro-crisis which needs more German money to sort out, and which provides the justification for Germany to make this depend on a common fiscal policy, probably leading to a Eurozone (but not necessarily EU) closer union and Finance Ministry. Does that count? It's probably still on the cards. But it's not all the EU.

If all the political elites are united, but that is causes greater and greater discontent on the countries citizens, does this count as United? The UK is no more conflicted in its attitude than many (I don't say all) EU countries.

Or it is only a single integrated EU on the model of the German Federal Republic, that fits the bill.

A very good book "The citizen's guide to the EU" by Chris Bickerton (pro EU but far from uncritical) argues that what the EU lacks is a demos by which he means a functioning democratic base of people who identify as EUian and think they have a democratic investment in it. Read the book, it's good, and I may not have represented him well.

Disclosure: I'm a typical Tory euro-skeptic remainer.

PS Can we have a competition for the best word for a citizen of the EU, to remove the orwellian political use of language that equates Europe with the EU.

Posted by SvitlanaV2 (# 16967) on :

quote:
Originally posted by Ronald Binge:
It's bad enough trying to work out just how buggered we could be by Brexit to work that one out.

But Ireland could benefit from Brexit, couldn't it? All those international companies looking for an English-speaking EU base? Highly educated young people from the EU looking for an English-speaking country to work or study in?

Some European commentators think having the whinging Brits out of the way will make the other members of the EU more united, which is possible.

Posted by Leorning Cniht (# 17564) on :

quote:
Originally posted by SvitlanaV2:

Some European commentators think having the whinging Brits out of the way will make the other members of the EU more united, which is possible.

It's possible. It's probably equally likely that with the Brits out of the way, other countries will no longer be able to use them as a combination stalking horse and scapegoat, but will reveal their own complaints.

Posted by Bibaculus (# 18528) on :

I would guess that a united Europe, as a single political entity like the US, would only come about if people (ie lots of people) identified with it. In the US there are state and local loyalties, sure, but people also believe in 'America', the 'United States'. There is a national mythology and all that. The EU, being an invention of elites, has never commanded that sort of loyalty.

Posted by John Holding (# 158) on :

A truly united "europe" would have to undergo more than the usual changes. For one thing, you don't need both "member states" and provinces/lander under the new federal united government. Are the german lander or the spanish provinces going to disappear? Or is it more likely that the german, and spanish governments will disappear, leaving their sub-sets more or less on a par with the smaller national governments as they are? What of those countries, like France, that have not-quite provinces intervening between the municipal and national governments?

John

Posted by Ronald Binge (# 9002) on :

quote:
Originally posted by SvitlanaV2:

quote:
Originally posted by Ronald Binge:
It's bad enough trying to work out just how buggered we could be by Brexit to work that one out.
But Ireland could benefit from Brexit, couldn't it? All those international companies looking for an English-speaking EU base? Highly educated young people from the EU looking for an English-speaking country to work or study in?

Some European commentators think having the whinging Brits out of the way will make the other members of the EU more united, which is possible.

I live near the border in Donegal and study in Co Londonderry. Not much good and fewer Brexit inspired job moves up here. Thankfully I am a dual citizen but things could go seriously Pete Tong here if the UK and Ireland don't work things out for mutual benefit with the EU.

[ 24. August 2016, 18:01: Message edited by: Ronald Binge ]

Posted by SvitlanaV2 (# 16967) on :

AFAIK Ireland and the UK have a special relationship regarding migration between the two countries. That doesn't depend on the EU, so I don't understand why Ireland should be worrying about the UK's future relationship with the EU.

The only challenge I've heard about is how the border with Northern Ireland will be managed.

Posted by Ronald Binge (# 9002) on :

quote:
Originally posted by SvitlanaV2:
AFAIK Ireland and the UK have a special relationship regarding migration between the two countries. That doesn't depend on the EU, so I don't understand why Ireland should be worrying about the UK's future relationship with the EU.

The only challenge I've heard about is how the border with Northern Ireland will be managed.

The EU has a big say in how the UK/Irish border will be run. Perhaps a look at Border Lives might educate you as to why we believe messing with the border is actually a big deal.

Posted by Martin60 (# 368) on :

This should do it:

Revelation 13:11-17

The Beast from the Earth

11 Then I saw another beast coming up out of the earth; and he had two horns like a lamb and he spoke as a dragon. 12 He exercises all the authority of the first beast in his presence. And he makes the earth and those who dwell in it to worship the first beast, whose fatal wound was healed. 13 He performs great signs, so that he even makes fire come down out of heaven to the earth in the presence of men. 14 And he deceives those who dwell on the earth because of the signs which it was given him to perform in the presence of the beast, telling those who dwell on the earth to make an image to the beast who had the wound of the sword and has come to life. 15 And it was given to him to give breath to the image of the beast, so that the image of the beast would even speak and cause as many as do not worship the image of the beast to be killed. 16 And he causes all, the small and the great, and the rich and the poor, and the free men and the slaves, to be given a mark on their right hand or on their forehead, 17 and he provides that no one will be able to buy or to sell, except the one who has the mark, either the name of the beast or the number of his name. 18 Here is wisdom. Let him who has understanding calculate the number of the beast, for the number is that of a man; and his number is six hundred and sixty-six.

Posted by SvitlanaV2 (# 16967) on :

quote:
Originally posted by Ronald Binge:
The EU has a big say in how the UK/Irish border will be run. Perhaps a look at Border Lives might educate you as to why we believe messing with the border is actually a big deal.

That website looks very interesting, but no one was saying that the EU should mess with the border.

Brussels probably doesn't care very much about the prospect of British people illicitly sneaking south. Whether the British are worried about non-Irish people sneaking into the UK via the Northern Ireland is a more interesting question, and I can understand concerns about that.

Posted by Leorning Cniht (# 17564) on :

quote:
Originally posted by Ronald Binge:
The EU has a big say in how the UK/Irish border will be run.

Why is this true? Ireland isn't in Schengen.

Posted by Ronald Binge (# 9002) on :

quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:

quote:
Originally posted by Ronald Binge:
The EU has a big say in how the UK/Irish border will be run.
Why is this true? Ireland isn't in Schengen.

The Republic remains in the EU. Any Brexit harder than EFTA status impacts on free movement and the single market. Hence the EU will have an interest in the UK/Irish border then.

Posted by Ronald Binge (# 9002) on :

Another perspective on the EU referendum, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland from a veteran peace campaigner, Andy Pollak

Posted by betjemaniac (# 17618) on :

quote:
Originally posted by anteater:
mrWaters:

A very good book "The citizen's guide to the EU" by Chris Bickerton (pro EU but far from uncritical) argues that what the EU lacks is a demos by which he means a functioning democratic base of people who identify as EUian and think they have a democratic investment in it. Read the book, it's good, and I may not have represented him well.

I realise he's probably persona non grata with many people, but get it from the library and you don't have to pay him - Boris wrote a very entertaining readable book on the same subject years ago; The Dream of Rome.

Ok, his riff was that the EU can't work because it's not and won't work until it becomes the Roman empire - essentially making exactly the same points about the need to make a demos.

It's also good for a primer in some of the more entertaining bits of Roman history, eg the disastrous campaign of Publius Quinctilius Varus in the Teutoburg Forest.

Posted by Ronald Binge (# 9002) on :

Another article, this time from the Irish Independent, setting out just how much of a cold house the EU could be for the Republic of Ireland post Brexit. It also explains, succinctly, just how dependent on free movement to and from the UK Official Ireland has always been.

Ireland may not be such a good fit in the EU post Brexit

Posted by betjemaniac (# 17618) on :

quote:
Originally posted by Ronald Binge:
Another article, this time from the Irish Independent, setting out just how much of a cold house the EU could be for the Republic of Ireland post Brexit. It also explains, succinctly, just how dependent on free movement to and from the UK Official Ireland has always been.

Ireland may not be such a good fit in the EU post Brexit

You will be much better placed on this but I'm sure it was hinted in a paper, on the radio, or somewhere before the referendum (and I apologise for not having the source but I heard it once, pricked up my ears, and never heard it again), that the Irish govt was quietly contingency planning for the event that Brexit made the Republic remaining in the EU impossible due to the depth of the economic ties with the UK.

It would be nice to think that *some* governments had contingency plans for things not working out as they'd like...

Posted by Ronald Binge (# 9002) on :

quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:

quote:
Originally posted by Ronald Binge:
Another article, this time from the Irish Independent, setting out just how much of a cold house the EU could be for the Republic of Ireland post Brexit. It also explains, succinctly, just how dependent on free movement to and from the UK Official Ireland has always been.

Ireland may not be such a good fit in the EU post Brexit
You will be much better placed on this but I'm sure it was hinted in a paper, on the radio, or somewhere before the referendum (and I apologise for not having the source but I heard it once, pricked up my ears, and never heard it again), that the Irish govt was quietly contingency planning for the event that Brexit made the Republic remaining in the EU impossible due to the depth of the economic ties with the UK.

It would be nice to think that *some* governments had contingency plans for things not working out as they'd like...

Indeed. Like the comment earlier, I wouldn't die in a ditch for the EU either, but it did assist in modernising the country - socially as well as the obvious investments in roads, railways and telecommunications. It also reduced our dependency on the UK for exports - but whatever happens next needs to take into account just how integrated the Republic is into UK supply chains and the family and friendship ties we have. But we're just four million people. Not a lot of bargaining power in being isolated from either the UK, or the EU, or both.

Posted by mrWaters (# 18171) on :

Access to the common market is of vital importance to the UK and to the Tories. 44% of all exports from the Kingdom come to the EU. Access to the common market is contingent on free movement and from what we know no one in EU will sell it off. Brussels has a very good negotiating position and very little incentive to give up fundamental ideas. Every other country that is in EEA but not in the EU has accepted those principles. Finally, if UK had a strong negotiating position they would have already started it and not delayed to oblivion as it's happening now.

Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on :

quote:
Originally posted by mrWaters:
Access to the common market is of vital importance to the UK and to the Tories. 44% of all exports from the Kingdom come to the EU. Access to the common market is contingent on free movement and from what we know no one in EU will sell it off. Brussels has a very good negotiating position and very little incentive to give up fundamental ideas. Every other country that is in EEA but not in the EU has accepted those principles. Finally, if UK had a strong negotiating position they would have already started it and not delayed to oblivion as it's happening now.

The Brexiteers are absolutely 100% for the single market *but* they emphatically do not want it to include Chapter 2 of the Four Freeedoms. The typical Brexiteer wants Chapter 1, parts of Chapter 3 and Chapter 4, but not awkward stuff like reciprocal rights and freedom of movement.

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