Thread: Purgatory: And they're off - UK election rant Board: Limbo / Ship of Fools.
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Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
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Yesterday's debate between the chancellor of the exchequer and his conservative and lib dem shadows is generally seen as the starting gun for the election. So it seems good to me to indulge myself with the rant that's been building over the past few years...
In the red, socialist corner, cowering desperately away from the title and pretending that they aren't the heirs of real socialists, we have the Labour party. Elected 13 years ago, the joys of office slowly but surely soured the early years of significant positive change, and the recent debacle of the recession and the sight of chickens coming to roost leaves them looking deeply flawed. The argument that 'we screwed it up last time, but this time we'll do better' is one that is not generally accepted from alcoholics, and the evidence of intoxication separating them from reality is easy to see. The failure to constrain public expenditure, instead hiding the true cost by failing to allow for either the pensions implicit in the 'investments' or the true cost of the PFI (Public Finance Initiative - a blatant effort at postponing the cost with an inevitable higher expenditure later) is wholly culpable. The wars in Iraq and especially Afghanistan were entered into without a full accounting of the real cost, leaving our soldiers to pay the price. And of course this government was in charge when the expenses scandal broke; whatever the rights or wrongs, their failure to be willing and enthusiastic about being open when it comes to bite them is perhaps inevitable, but still sickening. Meanwhile they are seriously proposing replacing the House of Lords with elected politicians. Whatever recent years have shown, the need for a group with the power to point to the lack of clothing of the elected ones is blatant; surely part of Italy's problem is this very lack.
Meanwhile, in the blue corner, we have a Tory party equally ill at ease with its ideological legacy, offering rather the prospect of better management of the country and the economy. One might hope that their privileged status and relative wealth would leave them less subject to the temptations of the expenses feeding trough, but instead many did succumb. This gave the leader the chance to purge a few whom he found problematic, whilst largely protecting his own elite. A brief display of candour about the need for 'swingeing cuts' led to polling discouragement, so convenient half truths were retreated to, not without indulging a populist cut of a proposed tax increase that is desperately needed. Meanwhile David Davis, who was willing to resign and stand again in a bye-election to highlight the growing loss of freedom in this country, was forced out of the shadow cabinet and left to fester on the back benches.
Sadly these are the only likely victors in the forthcoming election. Living as I do in a Lib Dem / Labour marginal, I shall hold my nose and vote Lib Dem on the grounds that regular change is probably better than endorsing a self perpetuating elite. But it is hard to rouse enthusiasm for the prospect of voting for a party that proposes introducing Proportional Representation. This will take the power of choosing the government from the hands of 40% of the electorate and handing it to 20% or less and allow special interests to wangle bribes for their people (as the Scots Nationalist are clearly already salivating at the prospect of being able to do in a hung parliament).
What of the alternatives? The BNP's emergence is a symptom of the failure of the present system; their overt racism has the virtue of honesty - at least they clearly believe in something, unlike the parties likely to win. But I'm obviously not going to vote for the racists...
Or indeed for UKIP; the hard question is to know whether they are really 'the BNP in blazers' or a truly non-racist party. Their emphasis against the EU is clearly sound; the idea that power should be transferred from people who you can sack at an election to those who are wholly unaccountable in any meaningful sense is logic of the authoritarian, though as a solution to the ability of voters to demand the irreconcilable, perhaps it has something to offer. And it's easier than changing the electorate, and if the electorate really get it wrong, they can be told to try again until they get it right - as the Irish found out over the Lisbon referendum...
Respect as a coherent party has the logic of the US Republicans: an untidy coalition of the religiously motivated, (in this case largely Islamic conservatives), with a group of political ideologues, in this case hard left socialists. At present however they are such a small group that their only effect is to distract a few activists from their natural home; the prospect of their giving the election to the right in the same way as third party candidates did in the US in 2000 can only raise a mild sigh of despair.
And meanwhile out on the fringe we have the Greens. For a moment at the time of the economic boom and the prospect of climate change being fought from a position of strength, there was a slight chance that their agenda would be seriously considered. Now however the pain of the recession and the self inflicted wounds of Emailgate have damaged their credibility at least for this election...
The lesson of the hype surrounding Blair and Obama when they first won, and the subsequent realisation that no one person can actually achieve mega change, is surely that we need to refrain from unrealistic expectations; human nature is flawed - so we can't really expect politicians to prove to be otherwise. The prospect of the anti-Christ, clearly prophesied in the New Testament, is a reminder that expecting too much from them is a recipe for total disaster; let's try rather to be faithful in praying for them and offering them support when they do well, not merely criticism when they cock up - as whoever gets in surely will...
[ 07. October 2010, 14:49: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]
Posted by Yorick (# 12169) on
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Yawn.
I hope the peanut gallery comes good on this one.
Posted by Yonatan (# 11091) on
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That's not a rant, that's an essay. I did like the comedy line though about the BNP's honesty regarding being racist.
Posted by Adeodatus (# 4992) on
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Can we just get the line in early about "They're all as bad as each other", and take it as read for the rest of the thread?
Posted by Boogie (# 13538) on
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I watched 30 seconds of the debate and switched channels.
We need a 'none of the above' choice on Ballot forms.
Posted by shamwari (# 15556) on
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else spoil the ballot paper
Posted by Dal Segno (# 14673) on
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If you wish to register a protest vote, then spoiling your ballot paper will not do it.
You need to vote Green or UKIP or Monster Raving Loony (YMMV) to register a decent protest.
The long way to make a change is to join a party, canvas for policy changes, stand for parliament and, in maybe 20 years time, become a cabinet minister.
Posted by The Great Gumby (# 10989) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
But it is hard to rouse enthusiasm for the prospect of voting for a party that proposes introducing Proportional Representation. This will take the power of choosing the government from the hands of 40% of the electorate and handing it to 20% or less and allow special interests to wangle bribes for their people (as the Scots Nationalist are clearly already salivating at the prospect of being able to do in a hung parliament).
Maybe I've missed something, but this is all just bollocks, isn't it? You might conceivably have a point about some systems of PR favouring third parties as "kingmakers" (although it's very unlikely that we'd adopt one of those systems, and the great benefit of systems like that is that even small parties can win seats, offering a perfect solution to your perceived lack of choice), but everything else is way off the mark.
You talk about a government elected by 40% of the electorate as if that's a good thing (hah!), and contrast it with your strange idea that PR would result in a government chosen by 20%. WTF? First, you need to define your terms. There's PR, and there's PR. The most likely form of PR in this country is STV, which is weak and not very proportional, and would merely have the effect of better representing everyone's views and preferences within the existing constituency system without the need for tactical voting and vote-swapping. If that bothers you, you need to get some perspective.
Second, you need to explain why a coalition government between parties polling 40% and 20% would result in the party polling 20% calling all the shots as you imply, why the 40% party would agree to a coalition on those terms, why their voters wouldn't turn elsewhere rather than continually voting for a party which has reasonable policies but bends over and spreads its cheeks at the first whiff of coalition, and why dictatorship by 40% is better than constructive compromise by 60%.
Third, you need to realise just how few votes actually matter in any election at the moment, how carefully the parties tailor their policies to appeal to the swing voters in their target constituencies, and how this relates to the lack of choice you were complaining about.
The rest of your rant was unintentionally amusing as well, but complaining that only two, virtually identical parties can win the election, while fainting in horror at the mere suggestion of some form of PR at some point in the future is spectacularly contradictory.
Posted by Adeodatus (# 4992) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Boogie:
I watched 30 seconds of the debate and switched channels.
We need a 'none of the above' choice on Ballot forms.
I agree, but the problem arises: what if None Of The Above wins?
Posted by Sober Preacher's Kid (# 12699) on
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Why be scared of a Minority Government, aka Hung Parliament? We've had three in a row here in the Land of Ice and Snow and it hasn't been the end of the world. It's even been mildly entertaining.
Posted by GreyFace (# 4682) on
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I have been known to spoil a ballot paper or even (shock) deliberately fail to vote. But then a friend pointed out that in doing so, I'm effectively saying that as I won't vote for one of the people willing to stand, and government is going to happen whether I like it or not, I'd prefer it if I was governed by somebody who wasn't elected.
Having said that, elected politicians sometimes need reminding that all that can really be said in terms of mandate to govern is that the electorate thought you were the least incompetent of those who actually bothered to apply for the job.
Posted by leo (# 1458) on
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Although I used to be a Labour party member (resigned over the loss of Caluse 4) I shall vote LibDem because the candidate, currently my MP, is a friend of mine.
But also because I like a 'well-hung' parliament.
Posted by Traveller (# 1943) on
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The million and one irritations and directives emanating from Brussels mean that the Westminster Parliament is hardly worth bothering to vote for.
If UKIP weren't as mad as a box of frogs, they might be worth voting for to stem or even reverse the tide.
The West Lothian question hasn't been heard for a while. Any party got any good ideas on that one? Scottish MPs not allowed to vote on England (and/or Wales) only measures? Haven't checked the manifestos, but it's not making headlines.
leads to:
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Traveller:
The West Lothian question hasn't been heard for a while. Any party got any good ideas on that one? Scottish MPs not allowed to vote on England (and/or Wales) only measures? Haven't checked the manifestos, but it's not making headlines.
I think that's because in comparison to economic Armageddon and the complete destruction of our public services, banking industry, armed forces and civil liberties, whether or not a few Scottish MPs get to vote on certain matters is pretty small beer.
Edited to add: The very fact that you're bothered to bring that issue up speaks volumes about your own priorities.
[ 30. March 2010, 17:22: Message edited by: Imaginary Friend ]
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
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The Conservatives have suggested (I think) altering the voting rights of Scottish MPs on English bills at certain stages of the the bill's progress through parliament (so, say, the whole House can vote on it except at Committee stage, when English MPs only vote).
Also, the Conservatives want to reduce the number of MPs in Parliament. I would imagine that the number of Scottish MPs would be reduced further if this were to occur.
I suppose the importance of the West Lothian question will depend on the results of the next election.
Posted by Avila (# 15541) on
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Judging from the leafleting from all parties I thought the starting gun was irrelevant as they have been running laps already.
churches here have set up a local hustings to encourage people to meet candidates face to face and question them - I have the 'joy' of chairing the meeting
What feels odd is that a certain red corner aren't even putting up a candidate here
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
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No Labour candidate? Impossible, surely?
Posted by Avila (# 15541) on
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Not yet declared and I have hunted links, emailed via national website, neighbouring party contacts on web... not a hint! (or even any reply!)
I grew up where it was said any donkey with a red rosette would get in, but we always had a blue candidate... and yellow, and locals.
Posted by Benny Diction 2 (# 14159) on
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I am just fed up with how pathetic they all are. One party makes a policy statement and then the others are abusive. Like kids in the play ground.
And forgive me for using vile language but George Osborne is just a smug ... (no I'll be good and not call him a ...)
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
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Have you noticed how he and Cameron have some very similar little nuances in their speech? The way the sound consonants (especially b and p) at the end of words, for example. Perhaps they have the same voice coach.
One other interesting thing from the debate yesterday was how often Osborne referred to Cameron (it must have been something like a dozen times) compared to how often Darling referred to Brown (I don't remember him doing so). Says a bit about who wears the trousers in each of those relationships, doesn't it?
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
One other interesting thing from the debate yesterday was how often Osborne referred to Cameron (it must have been something like a dozen times) compared to how often Darling referred to Brown (I don't remember him doing so). Says a bit about who wears the trousers in each of those relationships, doesn't it?
I wonder whether Osborne makes reference to Cameron because Cameron is the more high-profile and popular politician and Darling doesn't refer to Brown because he loathes Brown (Brown nearly sacked Darling and it is rumoured that, should Labour win the next election, Darling will be sacked in favour of Ed Balls).
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
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I've started a thread on PR in purgatory.
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
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Thank God, my eyeballs were melting.
Posted by St. Punk the Pious (# 683) on
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My sympathy to all those in the UK who are saddled with the prospect of either Brown or Cameron as PM.
We in the US have our problems, but at least we still have some hope . . . for now at least.
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
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Picks up thread and examines it closely:
Hmmm, *prod*, flabby vestigial rant, *prod*, no bile production, *prod*, intermittent production of lumps of reason. This is purgatorial animal using faux hellish colouring to deter predatory debaters ...
Throws thread over the fence into Purgatory
Now remember, the rules of Purgatory are different ,,,,
Think²
Phasing Hell Host
Posted by Traveller (# 1943) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
quote:
Originally posted by Traveller:
The West Lothian question hasn't been heard for a while. Any party got any good ideas on that one? Scottish MPs not allowed to vote on England (and/or Wales) only measures? Haven't checked the manifestos, but it's not making headlines.
I think that's because in comparison to economic Armageddon and the complete destruction of our public services, banking industry, armed forces and civil liberties, whether or not a few Scottish MPs get to vote on certain matters is pretty small beer.
Edited to add: The very fact that you're bothered to bring that issue up speaks volumes about your own priorities.
I agree that there are lots of issues. I can and do rant about all the ones you raise and I can give you others:
G. Brown's raid on the reclaim of Advance Corporation Tax by organisations with no Corporation Tax obligations (i.e. pension plans). At a stroke, it changed the funding arrangement of (private sector) pension schemes and changed contribution holidays (remember those?) to huge deficits in funded schemes.
Complete lack of spine about discussing the EU among all three political parties. How about a promise to have a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty? Oh, sorry, I did mention Europe in my earlier post, you just didn't quote it.
Energy policy. Gold plating the EU requirements around renewable energy sources and completely failing to plan for the scheduled retirement of much of the UK's current generating capacity. Legislating that new generating capacity must use "carbon capture", a technology that is an idea, not a proven engineering method. All political parties voted in favour, one vote against. Likely result in five years time - power cuts or a means to restrict consumer's use. Start knitting wooly jumpers now.
I could go on, but my blood pressure is rising alarmingly! My kids already refer to me as the Grumpy Old Man.
My point about the West Lothian question was that the election will have many factors which some people will give differing weight in their reckoning of who to vote for. When push comes to shove and the main issue is "It's the economy, stupid" and nearly everyone feels worse off, the Barnett formula* and the equally unjust favourable treatment of Scots in the West Lothian question may just register on voters lists of priorities.
* For cross-pond readers. Public spending has for four decades been allocated between England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland by a (supposedly temporary) formula named after a former Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Joel Barnett. Average spending per capita in Scotland in 20% more than in England, with Wales at 14% more and Northern Ireland 31% more. Read more about this wonderful (for the non-English residents) system in the Wiki Article.
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
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The problem with the "West Lothian Question" is that apart from a handful of sad political process geeks, no-one in England cares a fart about it.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
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Just to clarify, the Australian system for federal and I suspect for other elections is not STV but Alternative vote; this allows the elector to rank candidate in a SINGLE member constituency in order of preference - STV has multimember constituencies. This ensures that every MP is the least disliked candidate, with the result that the centre is likely to benefit over extremes.
Posted by Sleepwalker (# 15343) on
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quote:
Originally posted by ken:
The problem with the "West Lothian Question" is that apart from a handful of sad political process geeks, no-one in England cares a fart about it.
I'm not sure that's true. I rather suspect that an awful lot of people in England don't actually know about it.
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Sleepwalker:
quote:
Originally posted by ken:
The problem with the "West Lothian Question" is that apart from a handful of sad political process geeks, no-one in England cares a fart about it.
I'm not sure that's true. I rather suspect that an awful lot of people in England don't actually know about it.
Indeed. There are in general two groups of people who know about it.
One is very well-informed Labour (centre-left) intellectuals. Who much as they might dislike the inconsistency of the current reality know that the only logical solution would benefit the Conservative Party in England, and probably the Nationalists in Scotland too. Thus they don't make too much of it.
The other is the well-informed Conservative who historically were strong Unionists as well. Thus they satisfied their unionist soul by surrendering a few votes. What has happened over the past few years is a growth of English Nationalism within the Conservative tent which is not so wedded to the union. They are the group who run with it.
The result by national popular vote in the next General Election will be a narrow win for Conservatives in England, huge wins for Labour in Scotland and Wales and for the Unionists in Northern Ireland. The overall UK result lies in the weighted average of those results by constituency turnout and celtic over-representation!
Posted by Touchstone (# 3560) on
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Originally quoted by St Punk the pious:
quote:
My sympathy to all those in the UK who are saddled with the prospect of either Brown or Cameron as PM.
We get the politicians we deserve. One is the result of the incumbent party being too wet to depose their gaffe-prone leader because he'll have a hissy fit and shout at them. The other is the product of a desperate opposition copying the other lot by getting themselves a Blair clone. ("Well, it worked for them..."). Politically at least, Britain is currently a rather spineless nation that has run out of ideas.
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
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To be fair, that's not the only reason why Brown is still Labour's leader. Another big factor is that nobody wants the poisoned chalice of having to fight this election and the inevitable blame when it is lost.
Posted by Carys (# 78) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Traveller:
* For cross-pond readers. Public spending has for four decades been allocated between England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland by a (supposedly temporary) formula named after a former Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Joel Barnett. Average spending per capita in Scotland in 20% more than in England, with Wales at 14% more and Northern Ireland 31% more. Read more about this wonderful (for the non-English residents) system in the Wiki Article.
But were Wales funded as an English region it would do better than under the current system! Which shows that there's large variation within the countries too. Straight per capita doesn't work because deprivation and rurality mean some things cost more in some places than others.
Carys
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
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If Wales had the same electoral quota as an English region it would lose about 7 or 8 MPs.
Posted by EtymologicalEvangelical (# 15091) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Touchstone:
Politically at least, Britain is currently a rather spineless nation that has run out of ideas.
And the nation that has not run out of ideas is.....??
Please enlighten me. I would be most fascinated to know where you think political inspiration is currently likely to be found.
Posted by Touchstone (# 3560) on
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I'm not claiming Britain is any better or worse than anywhere else. Perhaps we're witnessing a general exhaustion of capitalist democracy, to be followed by...what, exactly? Chinese style totalitarianism? Scarey thought.
I seem to remember many of us having high hopes of a certain B. Obama a couple of years back, hopes which may not have been entirely misplaced.
Posted by EtymologicalEvangelical (# 15091) on
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The OP on this thread seems to wallow in the slough of despond, as if the sudden realisation has hit that, in the UK, we don't seem to have a political system that can deliver peace, joy, happiness, inspiration and all that is good in life. But what I would like to know is this: what political system could ever achieve such a thing? Putting my "evangelical cap" on, I am mindful of the reality of human nature, which will exploit and abuse any system, no matter how finely tuned and intelligently managed.
Now that is not to say that we should not try to create the best possible system, which is most effective at holding evil in check. But the idea that any external system could really deliver "The Good" is, to my mind, rather dehumanising, as if humans only need to be managed - like chickens in a coop - in order to attain contentment and prosperity.
All the ranting and raving about politics that our society currently indulges in, is really a longing for a state of affairs, which is not even desirable. Let's get politics and economics in its proper perspective. The quality of any political system cannot rise any higher than the moral quality of the people both running it and for whom or "on whom" it is run. For example, it is impossible for society to function without an atmosphere of trust - a state of affairs which can only be influenced by legislation to a limited extent.
I also wonder whether a lot of the cynicism about the election is due to information overload. If professional economists are engaged in a continual - and resolution defying - debate about the rights and wrongs of Keynsianism versus neo-liberalism, then what hope is there for the rest of us? And how many of us can really get our heads round the intricate maze of financial speculation? We are bombarded with all this stuff, and expected to have an opinion. Well, my opinion is that government intervention works in some situations but not in others. Therefore there is a need for pragmatism.
But how can political parties campaign on the basis of pragmatism? They all need their brand and pitch - and thus their messages are reduced to slogans, pleas for personal trust and short-term promises. The alternative is an in-depth debate on issues that even the best minds cannot agree on.
quote:
Originally posted by The Great Gumby:
Second, you need to explain why a coalition government between parties polling 40% and 20% would result in the party polling 20% calling all the shots as you imply, why the 40% party would agree to a coalition on those terms, why their voters wouldn't turn elsewhere rather than continually voting for a party which has reasonable policies but bends over and spreads its cheeks at the first whiff of coalition, and why dictatorship by 40% is better than constructive compromise by 60%.
I have had my doubts about PR - due to the power available to smaller parties - but I think your comment is extremely valid. No system is perfect, of course, but it cannot be right that, in the forthcoming election, the vast majority of votes will not really make any difference under the current system, as they will be cast in safe seats. I'm coming round to supporting electoral reform, as I think the frustration generated by the current system is a greater evil than the possible horsetrading of PR or some such variant, such as STV (cumbersome though the latter system is). I take the view that representation is more desirable than the kind of stability it is claimed only one party can achieve.
Posted by Ricardus (# 8757) on
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quote:
Originally posted by EtymologicalEvangelical:
The OP on this thread seems to wallow in the slough of despond, as if the sudden realisation has hit that, in the UK, we don't seem to have a political system that can deliver peace, joy, happiness, inspiration and all that is good in life. But what I would like to know is this: what political system could ever achieve such a thing?
But democracy has produced great social reformers - otherwise we would still be living in the same social conditions as in the nineteenth century.
Posted by watfordpete (# 14797) on
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The OP asks if UKIP is truly non-racist... other posters seem to imply that voting for them is OK... here's an extract from their policy statements:
A significant proportion of immigrants and their descendents are neither assimilating nor integrating into British society. This problem is encouraged by the official promotion of multiculturalism which threatens social cohesion.
Might not be racist per se but it's pretty intolerant.
{edited for minor typo]
[ 08. April 2010, 09:45: Message edited by: watfordpete ]
Posted by aumbry (# 436) on
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quote:
Originally posted by watfordpete:
The OP asks if UKIP is truly non-racist... other posters seem to imply that voting for them is OK... here's an extract from their policy statements:
A significant proportion of immigrants and their descendents are neither assimilating nor integrating into British society. This problem is encouraged by the official promotion of multiculturalism which threatens social cohesion.
Might not be racist per se but it's pretty intolerant.
{edited for minor typo]
I cannot see anything intolerant in that statement - it is a statement of fact and one I doubt whether any of the other parties would deny if they were honest enough to debate the issue.
Posted by watfordpete (# 14797) on
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I'm sorry but the statement that promotion of multiculturalism threatens social cohesion does not strike me as a statement of fact. I suppose it might depend on what is meant by 'multiculturalism' but I see it as meaning understanding of different cultures, and cultural roots, within society. That to me seems like a way of developing social cohesion rather than threatening it.
Posted by Sleepwalker (# 15343) on
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quote:
Originally posted by watfordpete:
I'm sorry but the statement that promotion of multiculturalism threatens social cohesion does not strike me as a statement of fact. I suppose it might depend on what is meant by 'multiculturalism' but I see it as meaning understanding of different cultures, and cultural roots, within society. That to me seems like a way of developing social cohesion rather than threatening it.
What we have had in this country for some time is what multiculturalism is: different cultures moving here and establishing themselves alongside the indigenous culture. So far as I'm aware, multiculturalism is not integrationist and certainly isn't assimilist. It is more separatist: that each culture should be retained as a whole and be tolerated.
In the Times Educational Supplement about three weeks ago there was an article on an attempt being made to federate two high schools in Rochdale. One high school had a majority of Asian students; the other European (since I'm defining on continental grounds!). In the article it stated that Rochdale has the reputation of being the most segregated town in the UK and there were race riots there a few years back. This federation of schools was in response to those riots. However, the plans had broken down because agreement could not be reached between the two communities (and included in that were teaching and non-teaching members of the communities).
I think it was last year when I watched a programme which might have been Dispatches or it might have been something else, but it followed two taxi drivers around their beat in Burnley. One half of Burnley is predominantly Asian; the other, predominantly European. And the two just don't seem to cross over, according to what was shown on that programme.
The integration of immigrant people in this country has not been managed very well IMO. I'm sure there are many reasons why that is the case but clearly there is evidence to suggest, in many towns and cities throughout the country, where there are separate communities co-existing in the same area, that multiculturalism threatens social cohesion. It certainly does nothing to promote it. What the solution is I have no idea, but I think it is a shame the way things have turned out.
Posted by watfordpete (# 14797) on
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I think, therefore, that is primarily a statement of how one views multiculturalism. I live in Luton. Many media reports would, and do, portray it as a divided town. It makes a good media story.
I don't happen to see it that way. There are many 'cultures' represented in the town. They live alongside and with each other. It is a vibrant place with many 'cultures' providing elements to that social mix. Some elements of each 'culture' take it in themselves to look for opportunities to undermine social cohesion.
That the few undermine it for the many is not, in my opinion, reason for basing a policy of stopping (controlled) immigration.
And yes, people do come in and fit into their own culture - we have, amongst others, large Irish, Polish, Jamaican and various Asian and African communities. They are identifiable as having a distinct identity.
Over the years though they are becoming, or will become, assimilated... there is no longer a very distinctive Italian community in the town, for example. The descendents (to refer back to UKIP) of the Italian migrants of the 40s/50s have integrated.
And as for places like Burnley and Rochdale having no go areas for different community groups - the same can be said of all-white estates in Glasgow or Manchester or London. And those examples have nothing to do with immigration.
Posted by Ricardus (# 8757) on
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If you want to get the measure of UKIP's tolerance, look at the asylum policy. It's got one paragraph on protecting victims of persecution, and seven on why asylum seekers are mostly cheats and terrorists but the EU won't let us do anything about it.
Posted by Ricardus (# 8757) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
If you want to get the measure of UKIP's tolerance, look at the asylum policy. It's got one paragraph on protecting victims of persecution, and seven on why asylum seekers are mostly cheats and terrorists but the EU won't let us do anything about it.
For the record, the equivalent rankings for the other parties are:
Labour: One paragraph on "why a faster system is a more compassionate system", one paragraph on "isn't it good that people aren't claiming asylum here", and one on preventing human trafficking (here).
Conservatives: I can't find any actual policy statements, but some digging round brings up this pdf, containing twenty proposals, all twenty of which are about cracking down on false claimants.
As a comparison, imagine a policy on "support for victims of crime" which consisted solely of "check they're not making it up, the lying bastards".
The Liberal Democrats, on the other hand, have a policy saying almost nothing about false claimants.
[ 08. April 2010, 17:10: Message edited by: Ricardus ]
Posted by leo (# 1458) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
If you want to get the measure of UKIP's tolerance, look at the asylum policy. It's got one paragraph on protecting victims of persecution, and seven on why asylum seekers are mostly cheats and terrorists but the EU won't let us do anything about it.
UKIP insist that “a significant proportion of immigrants and their descendents in Britain are neither assimilating nor integrating into British society”. They oppose multiculturalism and political correctness, and promotes uniculturalism - aiming to create a single British culture embracing all races and religions”.
They want schools to “teach about Britain's contribution to the world, such as British inventions, promoting democracy and the rule of law and the role of Britain in fighting slavery and Nazism”. They do not envisage that there might be anything negative in Britain’s history.
They would repeal the Human Rights Act.
In fact, their policies are very similar to the BNP.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by EtymologicalEvangelical:
The OP on this thread seems to wallow in the slough of despond, as if the sudden realisation has hit that, in the UK, we don't seem to have a political system that can deliver peace, joy, happiness, inspiration and all that is good in life.
My OP was originally written for Hell and never intended as a starter to a more serious contribution seeking to suggest ways forward: it was intended to highlight rather the degree to which there is a major problem in this country. My personal belief at the moment is that the best solution would be a shortening of duration of parliaments from the current 5 years to 3 - as in Oz and New Zealand - or even shorter. This is in the hope that the traditional game of politicians of fudging the truth to get elected and doing the nasty stuff early on despite the cries of pain and being nice towards the end to then repeat the exercise might finally cease and instead we see leaders being honest about the reality that we face. At the moment politicians know that they can get away with large amounts of flannel because in fact people do forget it all by the next election; instead they should be offered the hard choices and encouraged to make clear decisions. One of the problems of PR is that the degree of choice is even more removed - instead the same elite is offered with some marginal changes but no real change; at least FPTP offers clear choices - though in practice elections are times when these are blurred for the most part.
Posted by New Yorker (# 9898) on
:
As an American, might I ask my British shipmates a question about election politics? If I understand correctly, one of Labor/Labour's policy points is a fully elected House of Lords. But wouldn't that end the idea of parliamentary supremacy?
Posted by Carys (# 78) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
One of the problems of PR is that the degree of choice is even more removed - instead the same elite is offered with some marginal changes but no real change; at least FPTP offers clear choices - though in practice elections are times when these are blurred for the most part.
But it doesn't. If you live in a safe seat then the Party elite can put up whomsoever it likes and they will be elected. That's why there are jokes about a donkey winning if nominated by the dominant party. Admittedly, it occaisionally doesn't work -- the Tories took Southport to be a safe seat in 1987 and parachuted in a candidate failing to recognise that Sandgrounders are parochial over tribally conservative so a local LibDem won (but LibDems had councillors in some wards anyway). But I'd say that was the exception rather than the rule (and I only know about it because I lived there)*
The seat I currently live in has 50% of the vote for one candidate. Admittedly, the student vote is part of that and its now an almost entirely different cohort, but LibDems do do well amongst students.
At least at the Assembly Elections, I get my second vote where the vote for my party actually counts and means that there are two Plaid AMs for my region.
Carys
*In 1992 it reverted to Tory when they selected someone with a local wife.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
As an American, might I ask my British shipmates a question about election politics? If I understand correctly, one of Labor/Labour's policy points is a fully elected House of Lords. But wouldn't that end the idea of parliamentary supremacy?
The pattern for most parliamentary systems is that the second house has a revising role, and one chamber can overrule the other when push comes to shove. Thus in Germany a majority in the Bundestag can overrule a majority in the Bundesrat, although it can't overrule a 2/3 majority in the Bundesrat. It's my understanding that the Labour proposals for the Lords has some such approach; personally I can't see them surviving the question 'Do we want more elected politicians when we all know what they've been up to recently?' Or at least I hope so - the Lords is one of the best parts of the UK constitution, and Labour's willingness to destroy it is one of their worst features.
On the election generally, I'm very taken with the Economist's editorial this week: quote:
Voters deserve a more radical vision than the timid and uninspiring policies all parties have put forward so far
from here
Posted by phil2357 (# 15431) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
As an American, might I ask my British shipmates a question about election politics? If I understand correctly, one of Labor/Labour's policy points is a fully elected House of Lords. But wouldn't that end the idea of parliamentary supremacy?
The strict answer to your question is "no". Parliament is composed of the House of Commons, the House of Lords and the Crown. These three bodies together form the country's law-making body. As I understand it, "parliamentary supremacy" refers to the fact that Parliament can enact any law it pleases, with few consitutional restraints.
But I'm guessing that you are asking about how Labour's proposed reforms would affect the power of the House of Commons? I would be interested to see how the proposed changes affect the powers the House of Commons gained under the 1911 Parliament Act. With broad brush strokes, if a Bill is introduced to, and approved by, the House of Commons then the House of Lords can only delay its becoming law, rather than prevent it becoming law. I have not heard about Labour's plans in great detail, and it could be that their current plans aren't very detailed. From what I understand, Labour are proposing that we adopt something akin to the Senate/House of Representatives system in the US. Am I correct in understanding that a Bill must get Senate approval to become law?
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
Only the way people enter the House of Lords would change, ie, they would be elected as opposed to appointed (as is the case now) or entitled by birth (as was the case with the hereditary peers). Parliamentary supremacy (ie, supreme lawmaking power) would not be affected.
Tangent: it's worth noting that until recently the UK's highest appellate court was also the House of Lords. Law lords did not involve themselves in the legislative process purely by convention, and the Lord Chancellor had a foot in Britain's executive, legislative and judicial branches insofar that they are separate.
Posted by Benny Diction 2 (# 14159) on
:
I've just been listening to David "Call me Dave" Cameron on Radio 4's Today programme.
As smooth as a snake oil salesman. And people said Blair was slick!
And this morning the Tories have said "more" about how they will fund not putting National Insurance up. By efficiency savings in local and central government. 40,000 jobs will go. But not through redundancy but through not replacing people who leave. Fair enough you may say. But when pressed on this being only the start he ducked and dived.
Which jobs Dave? Social Workers dealing with child protection?
No doubt the Tories' grand idea is to bring in the private sector to deliver cost savings through managing back office functions for example. I saw this in operation at South Glos Council when I worked there and it happens here in Magic Roundaboutland. It is not all it is cracked up to be.
There needs to be a change in government. I don't think it is good for one party to be in government too long. But why should that mean Labour or Tory take it in turns. A hung Parliament would be an interesting change.
Posted by otyetsfoma (# 12898) on
:
I agree with the desirability of a hung parliament, but there is no way to vote for it. If too many people vote "strategically", they may end up by FPTP with a party they wanted to curtail, or even a party they don't like. That's why we need STV.
Posted by aumbry (# 436) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Benny Diction 2:
I've just been listening to David "Call me Dave" Cameron on Radio 4's Today programme.
As smooth as a snake oil salesman. And people said Blair was slick!
And this morning the Tories have said "more" about how they will fund not putting National Insurance up. By efficiency savings in local and central government. 40,000 jobs will go. But not through redundancy but through not replacing people who leave. Fair enough you may say. But when pressed on this being only the start he ducked and dived.
Which jobs Dave? Social Workers dealing with child protection?
No doubt the Tories' grand idea is to bring in the private sector to deliver cost savings through managing back office functions for example. I saw this in operation at South Glos Council when I worked there and it happens here in Magic Roundaboutland. It is not all it is cracked up to be.
There needs to be a change in government. I don't think it is good for one party to be in government too long. But why should that mean Labour or Tory take it in turns. A hung Parliament would be an interesting change.
The general view is that a hung parliament would mean that a coalition government would be unwilling to make the necessary cuts to reduce the £trillion or so public debt which has balooned under Brown and Labour. Without measures to control this the cost to the government of financing the debt would also baloon (if the markets were indeed willing to continue on that path) and as more and more public expenditure went towards servicing the debt then less and less would be available to support essential services.
To the extent that Cameron has given some indication that he would take steps to cut public expenditure he is at least being truthful. Brown on the other hand is in complete denial that there is a debt problem and talks about "investment" when he means spending. The loss of control of public spending during Labour's tenure was well in advance long before the credit crunch hit and commentators have been pointing out the dangers of allowing public debt to rise at the rate it has been for several years now but unfortunately Brown, who is delusional about his own abilities, refused to take heed of these warnings.
If you want to see what happens when national governments avoid making these decisions look at the state of Greece a country which may well shortly become bankrupt and where currently government borrowings costs 4% more than the equivalent rates in Germany. The effects on public services as well as taxes would then be catastrophic.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
UKIP insist that “a significant proportion of immigrants and their descendents in Britain are neither assimilating nor integrating into British society”. They oppose multiculturalism and political correctness, and promotes uniculturalism - aiming to create a single British culture embracing all races and religions”.
So which part of that - if any - do you disagree with?
The idea that anyone is free to become British is an uncontraversial one, surely?
quote:
They want schools to “teach about Britain's contribution to the world, such as British inventions, promoting democracy and the rule of law and the role of Britain in fighting slavery and Nazism”. They do not envisage that there might be anything negative in Britain’s history.
Why shouldn't they teach about the great things this country has done? Are you saying they should instead teach our children to be ashamed of their country and go round with heads hung in shame at their hideous heritage?
Posted by aumbry (# 436) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
UKIP insist that “a significant proportion of immigrants and their descendents in Britain are neither assimilating nor integrating into British society”. They oppose multiculturalism and political correctness, and promotes uniculturalism - aiming to create a single British culture embracing all races and religions”.
So which part of that - if any - do you disagree with?
The idea that anyone is free to become British is an uncontraversial one, surely?
quote:
They want schools to “teach about Britain's contribution to the world, such as British inventions, promoting democracy and the rule of law and the role of Britain in fighting slavery and Nazism”. They do not envisage that there might be anything negative in Britain’s history.
Why shouldn't they teach about the great things this country has done? Are you saying they should instead teach our children to be ashamed of their country and go round with heads hung in shame at their hideous heritage?
Because this flies in the face of one of the main tenets of multiculturalism: the right of any minority group to have the status of victims.
Posted by blackbeard (# 10848) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by aumbry:
[QUOTE]... To the extent that Cameron has given some indication that he would take steps to cut public expenditure he is at least being truthful. ...
Well, to that extent, yes. Where he isn't being truthful (and you can translate that into more basic English if you like) is in pretending that this can be done simply by increased efficiency, without actually hurting public services. I think we all know what happens when "increased efficiency" is achieved by politicians.
We have hard, hard choices to make. Deliberate deceit is not going to help us make the right choices.
Blackbeard is having some difficulty in maintaining any degree of respect for any of the players in the forthcoming election, and he's probably not alone in this.
Posted by aumbry (# 436) on
:
I agree with you in that he should frame it as the need to make severe cuts to put right the destabalisation of the public finances caused by Labour's imprudence.
The problem he has is that a significant proportion of the population want to bury their head in the sand about this and are willing to believe Brown's lies about spending our way out of recession so that when Osbourne made such noises the Tories polling figures plunged.
Posted by uncletoby (# 13067) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by aumbry:
The general view is that a hung parliament would mean that a coalition government would be unwilling to make the necessary cuts to reduce the £trillion or so public debt which has balooned under Brown and Labour. Without measures to control this the cost to the government of financing the debt would also baloon (if the markets were indeed willing to continue on that path) and as more and more public expenditure went towards servicing the debt then less and less would be available to support essential services.
To the extent that Cameron has given some indication that he would take steps to cut public expenditure he is at least being truthful. Brown on the other hand is in complete denial that there is a debt problem and talks about "investment" when he means spending. The loss of control of public spending during Labour's tenure was well in advance long before the credit crunch hit and commentators have been pointing out the dangers of allowing public debt to rise at the rate it has been for several years now but unfortunately Brown, who is delusional about his own abilities, refused to take heed of these warnings.
If you want to see what happens when national governments avoid making these decisions look at the state of Greece a country which may well shortly become bankrupt and where currently government borrowings costs 4% more than the equivalent rates in Germany. The effects on public services as well as taxes would then be catastrophic.
This analysis greatly exaggerates the scale of Britain's public debt problem. First, Brown had not "lost control" of borrowing before recession struck. In my opinion, he was borrowing too much, and his pro-cyclical fiscal policy was clearly a contributory factor to the economic problems we now face. Nevertheless, Britain's public debt before the start of the recession was 46% of GDP, lower than that of France (58%), Germany (61%), Italy (104%), Japan (88%) and even the USA (48%).
Looking at the 2009 figures, Britain's public debt stood at 62% of GDP, less than Ireland (64%), France (67%), Germany (70%), Italy (113%) and Japan (105%), not to mention Greece (120%).
Far more worrying, in my opinion, is Britain's high level of private debt, which stands at over 100% of GDP. Borrowers in the UK account for about one third of all unsecured debt in Western Europe. I would love to hear from the Tories, or anyone else, whether they think that an economy based primarily on shopping is sustainable, and if not, what they plan to do to build some other sort of economy.
No-one is arguing that Britain's public borrowing is not a problem - all main parties accept this. But it is a problem faced by almost every industrialised country, rather than a problem created by Gordon Brown, as the Tories (and Aumbry) would have it. The Conservative Party's ability to distract the electorate from the bankruptcy of the kinds of economic policies that they have advocated for the last thirty years by making public sector debt the main issue of the election is so astonishing that I suspect black magic must be involved.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
A correspondent on BBC radio made the interesting point that when the Tories began to talk about the need for austerity etc, they went down in the polls. He also noted that whereas the Tories maintain cuts need to be made soon, Labour say 'not yet', and this appears to be playing well too. Honesty is all very well. Unfortunately, it appears that the Tories could kill their election campaign by indulging in it.
Posted by aumbry (# 436) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by uncletoby:
quote:
Originally posted by aumbry:
The general view is that a hung parliament would mean that a coalition government would be unwilling to make the necessary cuts to reduce the £trillion or so public debt which has balooned under Brown and Labour. Without measures to control this the cost to the government of financing the debt would also baloon (if the markets were indeed willing to continue on that path) and as more and more public expenditure went towards servicing the debt then less and less would be available to support essential services.
To the extent that Cameron has given some indication that he would take steps to cut public expenditure he is at least being truthful. Brown on the other hand is in complete denial that there is a debt problem and talks about "investment" when he means spending. The loss of control of public spending during Labour's tenure was well in advance long before the credit crunch hit and commentators have been pointing out the dangers of allowing public debt to rise at the rate it has been for several years now but unfortunately Brown, who is delusional about his own abilities, refused to take heed of these warnings.
If you want to see what happens when national governments avoid making these decisions look at the state of Greece a country which may well shortly become bankrupt and where currently government borrowings costs 4% more than the equivalent rates in Germany. The effects on public services as well as taxes would then be catastrophic.
This analysis greatly exaggerates the scale of Britain's public debt problem. First, Brown had not "lost control" of borrowing before recession struck. In my opinion, he was borrowing too much, and his pro-cyclical fiscal policy was clearly a contributory factor to the economic problems we now face. Nevertheless, Britain's public debt before the start of the recession was 46% of GDP, lower than that of France (58%), Germany (61%), Italy (104%), Japan (88%) and even the USA (48%).
Looking at the 2009 figures, Britain's public debt stood at 62% of GDP, less than Ireland (64%), France (67%), Germany (70%), Italy (113%) and Japan (105%), not to mention Greece (120%).
Far more worrying, in my opinion, is Britain's high level of private debt, which stands at over 100% of GDP. Borrowers in the UK account for about one third of all unsecured debt in Western Europe. I would love to hear from the Tories, or anyone else, whether they think that an economy based primarily on shopping is sustainable, and if not, what they plan to do to build some other sort of economy.
No-one is arguing that Britain's public borrowing is not a problem - all main parties accept this. But it is a problem faced by almost every industrialised country, rather than a problem created by Gordon Brown, as the Tories (and Aumbry) would have it. The Conservative Party's ability to distract the electorate from the bankruptcy of the kinds of economic policies that they have advocated for the last thirty years by making public sector debt the main issue of the election is so astonishing that I suspect black magic must be involved.
All very well but you fail to take into account the rapid rate of deterioration of the public finances which following trend will push Britain way above even Italy in terms of public borrowing.
You have been trotting out these complacent views for some time now.
Posted by uncletoby (# 13067) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by aumbry:
All very well but you fail to take into account the rapid rate of deterioration of the public finances which following trend will push Britain way above even Italy in terms of public borrowing.
You have been trotting out these complacent views for some time now.
I'm not complacent at all - in fact I'm deeply pessimistic about Britain's political and economic future. But I'm also suspicious of tribal political narratives that float free from facts.
The idea that the Tories can solve Britain's economic problems just by cutting public sector borrowing slightly more and slightly sooner than Labour plan to is nonsense, and all the attention that is being given to the public debt issue is crowding out other important economic issues such as: how do we create the right regulatory environment to avoid further banking crises? how do we try to wean the British public off credit cards? how can we deflate the housing bubble, and increase the supply of homes, without causing another economic crisis? how can we reduce our reliance on the financial services sector? how can we end the absurd situation of relying on the immigration of large numbers of foreign workers whilst millions of British citizens languish on state benefits?
Posted by New Yorker (# 9898) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by phil2357:
Am I correct in understanding that a Bill must get Senate approval to become law?
Yes. The Senate and the House are equal. The Senate must approve appointments to certain offices and must ratify treaties. Money bills must start in the House. Other than those minor differences both Houses must approve a bill for it to become a law. (And the president must sign it or, if he vetos it, the House and Senate must override his veto.)
I don't think the British would want a US style House & Senate. I may be wrong of course.
I'm curious. It appears to me that most on board the Ship are left of center politically. Is there any British shipmate who plans on voting Conservative or UKIP?
Posted by St. Punk the Pious (# 683) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
quote:
Originally posted by phil2357:
Am I correct in understanding that a Bill must get Senate approval to become law?
Yes. The Senate and the House are equal. The Senate must approve appointments to certain offices and must ratify treaties. Money bills must start in the House. Other than those minor differences both Houses must approve a bill for it to become a law. (And the president must sign it or, if he vetos it, the House and Senate must override his veto.)
I don't think the British would want a US style House & Senate. I may be wrong of course.
I'm curious. It appears to me that most on board the Ship are left of center politically. Is there any British shipmate who plans on voting Conservative or UKIP?
or BNP?
Sorry. Couldn't resist.
BTW, I notice Cameron is reaching out to social conservatives with his call for lowering the abortion time limit and opposing assisted suicide.
I've said that if I were UK, I would vote UKIP. I may have to revise that if Cameron continues to sound like he won't just be Labour Lite.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
I'm curious. It appears to me that most on board the Ship are left of center politically. Is there any British shipmate who plans on voting Conservative
Yo.
Posted by blackbeard (# 10848) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by aumbry:
I agree with you in that he should frame it as the need to make severe cuts to put right the destabalisation of the public finances caused by Labour's imprudence.
The problem he has is that a significant proportion of the population want to bury their head in the sand about this and are willing to believe Brown's lies about spending our way out of recession so that when Osbourne made such noises the Tories polling figures plunged.
Ah, so we agree that parties should frame their policies honestly.
Yes, of course a significant proportion of the population want to bury their heads in the sand. Deeply regrettable. And of course it's a problem for politicians. However I don't think that our policies should be framed or driven by ostriches although I do have doubts about MPs sometimes.
Posted by Sleepwalker (# 15343) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
I'm curious. It appears to me that most on board the Ship are left of center politically. Is there any British shipmate who plans on voting Conservative?
Yup.
Posted by Ricardus (# 8757) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by uncletoby:
I would love to hear from the Tories, or anyone else, whether they think that an economy based primarily on shopping is sustainable, and if not, what they plan to do to build some other sort of economy.
The Lib-Dems have argued that if the Tories scrap the NI rise they'll have to make up for it by raising VAT.
If the Lib-Dems are correct, the Tories would in effect be replacing a tax on jobs with a tax on shopping, which might indeed have the effect you suggest.
(Though some economist will be along shortly to explain why I'm wrong.)
Posted by phil2357 (# 15431) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
Yes. The Senate and the House are equal. The Senate must approve appointments to certain offices and must ratify treaties. Money bills must start in the House. Other than those minor differences both Houses must approve a bill for it to become a law. (And the president must sign it or, if he vetos it, the House and Senate must override his veto.)
Thank you!
quote:
I don't think the British would want a US style House & Senate. I may be wrong of course.
To be honest, there hasn't been much of a public debate about the issue. As you've probably guessed from this thread, the public purse seems to be the issue of the day.
quote:
I'm curious. It appears to me that most on board the Ship are left of center politically. Is there any British shipmate who plans on voting Conservative or UKIP?
Probably Conservative.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
I'm curious. It appears to me that most on board the Ship are left of center politically.
Yes. Thankfully, the board isn't representative of the people of Britain.
quote:
Is there any British shipmate who plans on voting Conservative
Yes.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
As an American, might I ask my British shipmates a question about election politics? If I understand correctly, one of Labor/Labour's policy points is a fully elected House of Lords. But wouldn't that end the idea of parliamentary supremacy?
As phil2357 said, I think your question is about the power of the House of Commons. It seems to me that there is a potential for an almighty constitutional bust-up if Labour's plans are enacted. The House of Lords is a revising chamber but, because it lacks democratic legitimacy, it does its muscles infrequently. It is clear that the House of Commons is the voice of the people and has the sole democratic mandate in Parliament.
If the Lords is elected, who speaks for the people of Britain? If the Commons and Lords take a different view on the same matter, they will be on a collision course.
I suppose those in favour of 'reform' will say that this happens all the time in the United States and in other places, but it will be unusual for Britain and in my view a wholly unnecessary distraction.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
Anglican't, I think you understate the traditional importance of the House of Lords. It has always had the legal power to reject bills, not merely revise them, and it has used this power on many occasions up to the present.
Shipmates might be interested to know that New Zealand has a unicameral Parliament. This has, in the view of many, allowed poorly drafted, and conceptually weak legislation onto the statute books. It seems to me that a chamber with merely the power to revise would not avoid this problem: the mechanic who has to repair a badly-made machine cannot right all its wrongs. A second chamber should have power to rip up a bill and start again.
Posted by blackbeard (# 10848) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
Anglican't, I think you understate the traditional importance of the House of Lords. It has always had the legal power to reject bills, not merely revise them, and it has used this power on many occasions up to the present. ....
But, as I understand it, the Commons can always, eventually, over-ride the Lords.
I agree there should be a second Chamber, if possible one not unduly influenced by party politics and having, as its members, men and women who have made a substantial and positive contribution to the life and well-being of the nation. But I despair of the House of Lords; attempts to reform it have always been flawed.
I'm not convinced that an elected second chamber is going to be helpful; if its members are elected in the same way as the members of the Commons then it's just going to be a pale shadow of the Commons. I don't see the point.
If members are to be appointed then there has to be an agreed criterion and procedure for appointment. Should be possible in principle, but could be beyond the capabilities of party politicians.
Since this thread is supposed to be a rant, here goes:
It scarcely seems possible, but is attested by reliable witnesses, that from time to time appointments to the House of Lords have been somewhat influenced by funds donated to political parties. How this might be possible with politicians who are all - aren't they? - men and women of integrity devoted to serving their country, isn't immediately clear. What is clear is that if this rot is not stopped, then the House of Lords cannot command respect and has, therefore, no reason for its continued existence. Obviously, if any current members of the House of Lords can be shown to have entered by this route then they should return to the ranks, so to speak; and any politicians who can be shown to have betrayed the democratic institutions of their country should be immediately, totally and permanently barred from holding any public office. Nothing less will do. If we can't ensure even that much then the House of Lords has nothing to contribute to the country, unless of course we go to the entirely elected second chamber which would at least be a relatively honest and open method of appointment. But see above.
It could be worse. For much of English history, earls and barons were heavily armed gang leaders whose might meant right. At least we have come on a little from there.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
Blackbeard,
You are correct in that the House of Commons can use the Parliament Acts to override the Lords in limited circumstances. The fact remains that the Lords have the power to throw out a bill - indeed, that must happen before the Parliament Acts can be invoked.
I agree that a pale shadow of the Commons would not be very useful (but still better than nothing). Given, however, your comments about appointments without donations (a horrific scandal, I agree, and far worse than the corruption demonstrated by MPs through their expense claims) I wonder if there is a better alternative electing the second chamber.
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
:
For me, I see a certain value in the current system because you get voices of experience in the Lords who can play minor roles in the legislative process, and can on occasion serve in the Cabinet. I would like to see that maintained in any new system, if possible.
But also, the current system of directly appointing people to the Lords is not wholly desirable. So how about a compromise? A cross-party Commons committee makes a list of nominees, and the electorate can then vote from that list. For example, if ten seats are open, the committee could nominate approximately twenty people. Each voter can then vote for (say) five people on the list, and the ten nominees with the most votes are elected. What do you think?
Posted by Mr. Spouse (# 3353) on
:
Does anyone think there should be a 'Election Mailing Preference Service' along the lines of the junk mail one? Today I received my third envelope from CCHQ (Tories) and my first from "The Office of Gordon Brown", to go with a couple from the Labour candidate and one from the Lib Dems.
I really don't want them. Despite being in a 'new' constituency following boundary changes it's going to be a two horse race and I know which of the horses I definitely DON'T want to vote for. So there is no point sending me stuff, people.
Rant over. Thank you for your time.
[ 10. April 2010, 17:14: Message edited by: Mr. Spouse ]
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
:
Re: Lords Reform.
(1) There's a big difference, which folks are forgetting, between the legal sovereignty of Parliament (i.e. an Act of Parliament is supreme law) and the political supremacy of the House of Commons (i.e. the fact that the Government must have a majority in the Commons, and that the Commons has the last word on legislation). Reform of the House of Lords, as currently proposed, would change neither of these.
(2) Any sensible reform would have to think about what the Lords is actually for. Is it a democratic check on the government - a substantial chamber of restraint, review and reflection? Is it a chamber of territorial representation? Is it a powerless (but maybe influential) chamber of experts? Only once this question is answered can an appropriate composition be decided, and the right form of election and/or appointment found.
(3) Only when you've worked out what it's for can you decide what powers it should have. Personally, I think that as part of the role of the upper house is to act as a check against the government of the day, the powers of the Lords (or Senate, or whatever we call it) should be increased, so as to provide a genuine check on the Government's majority in the Commons. For example, a bill defeated in the Lords should be capable of being overturned only by a two-thirds majority vote of the Commons (i.e. Govt and Opposition agreeing), or by a referendum. That would provide a fair balance of power.
(4) There are other subsidiary matters to consider. Should members of the upper house be capable of being Ministers? (I'd say no). Should the upper house have any particular role in, say, the appointment of judges and ombudsmen, and the ratification of treaties (I'd say yes).
(5) Reform of the Lords needs to be put into its wider constitutional setting. For example, the responsibility of the Government to the Commons is only a matter of convention. With an elected upper chamber, it would be necessary to state, legally and constitutionally, that the Government is not drawn from, nor responsible to, the upper house.
(6) There are plenty of examples of how this could be done. The Spanish Senate is an example of a relatively weak, territorial second chamber, which nevertheless has important balancing functions. The German Bundesrat is an example of a strong and indirectly-chosen second chamber. Unfortunately, we in Britain tend not to bother learning from foreigners who smell of garlic and cabbage.
Unfortunately, none of the parties seem to have thought it through even this far. It's all being done on the back of a fag packet, with more of an eye to quick electoral fixes than good constitutional design.
[ 10. April 2010, 17:34: Message edited by: RadicalWhig ]
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
:
This site is fun (it's a "who should you vote for" thing).
For what it's worth (not much) it recommends that I should vote Green, followed by LibDem. If I were in England, that's exactly what I'd do (i.e. vote Green in a seat where they had some vague chance of winning, otherwise vote LibDem). However, the most important question, from my point of view, is "Should Scotland become an independent State?" That question is not even on their list. Neither is the SNP included in their list of parties.*
*(Typical! Hello, London, we exist! It's always like this. Can you see now why we are fed up and want our own pool to paddle in?)
Posted by Eigon (# 4917) on
:
That was interesting - I came out as Lib Dem, closely followed by Green.
A couple of nights ago, all the local candidates squeezed onto a little stage at a local venue so the electorate could quiz them (including Lord Offa of the Dyke for the Monster Raving Loony Party, who was quite sweet really). Our sitting MP is Lib Dem, but I was more impressed by the Green and the Plaid Cymru candidates (Plaid also doesn't seem to exist on the quiz).
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
:
The Times leads the charge to the bottom of the food-chain by using dodgy reporting to manufacture fake stories.
Today they asserted that the Labour Party somehow got hold of personal medical records in order to send electioneering material to people who have had cancer. Their fake "evidence" for this is a handful of people who have cancer and were upset to get the junk mail and so assumed it was targeted at them.
Do the sums. A quarter of a million of these mailings were sent out. One person in fifty in this country has had cancer. Almost all of them are over fifty years old. A mailshot sent to a quarter of a million over-fifty women will be recieved by THOUSANDS of women who have been diagnosed with cancer, just at random.
The Times report is a heap of shit. Send the editors back to school to learn some basic statistics.
Posted by Carys (# 78) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Eigon:
That was interesting - I came out as Lib Dem, closely followed by Green.
A couple of nights ago, all the local candidates squeezed onto a little stage at a local venue so the electorate could quiz them (including Lord Offa of the Dyke for the Monster Raving Loony Party, who was quite sweet really). Our sitting MP is Lib Dem, but I was more impressed by the Green and the Plaid Cymru candidates (Plaid also doesn't seem to exist on the quiz).
Now I'm trying to think which constituency Hay is in and therefore who our candidate is but I'[m not sure where the boundary between the two Powys constituency is.
This isn't the first quiz that's omitted Plaid and the SNP. Vote for Policies does too, but Vote Match gets devolution and has tailored the questions to which country your in, but I'm not sure they've got Plaid policy right on everything, but at least we're there.
Carys
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
Agreed, Ken. As a Tory, I'll take every chance to jump on a passing anti-Labour bandwagon but I agree that this story doesn't really add up, mainly because I received one of those leaflets. I'm in my late twenties, I've never had cancer and I'm not a woman. (Unless the Labour Party knows something that I don't).
[ 11. April 2010, 20:32: Message edited by: Anglican't ]
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
:
South East Wales border constituencies
Posted by Yonatan (# 11091) on
:
I received this from a friend this morning. Made me smile.
While walking down the street one day a "Member of Parliament" is tragically hit by a truck and dies.
His soul arrives in heaven and is met by St. Peter at the entrance.
'Welcome to heaven,' says St. Peter.. 'Before you settle in, it seems there is a problem. We seldom see a high official around these parts, you see, so we're not sure what to do with you.'
'No problem, just let me in,' says the man.
'Well, I'd like to, but I have orders from higher up. What we'll do is have you spend one day in hell and one in heaven. Then you can choose where to spend eternity.'
'Really, I've made up my mind. I want to be in heaven,' says the MP.
'I'm sorry, but we have our rules.'
And with that, St. Peter escorts him to the elevator and he goes down, down, down to hell. The doors open and he finds himself in the middle of a green golf course. In the distance is a clubhouse and standing in front of it are all his friends and other politicians who had worked with him.
Everyone is very happy and in evening dress. They run to greet him, shake his hand, and reminisce about the good times they had while getting rich at the expense of the people.
They play a friendly game of golf and then dine on lobster, caviar and champagne.
Also present is the devil, who really is a very friendly & nice guy who has a good time dancing and telling jokes. They are having such a good time that before he realizes it, it is time to go.
Everyone gives him a hearty farewell and waves while the elevator rises....
The elevator goes up, up, up and the door reopens on heaven where St. Peter is waiting for him.
'Now it's time to visit heaven.'
So, 24 hours pass with the MP joining a group of contented souls moving from cloud to cloud, playing the harp and singing. They have a good time and, before he realizes it, the 24 hours have gone by and St. Peter returns.
'Well, then, you've spent a day in hell and another in heaven. Now choose your eternity.'
The MP reflects for a minute, then he answers: 'Well, I would never have said it before, I mean heaven has been delightful, but I think I would be better off in hell.'
So St. Peter escorts him to the elevator and he goes down, down, down to hell.
Now the doors of the elevator open and he's in the middle of a barren land covered with waste and garbage.
He sees all his friends, dressed in rags, picking up the trash and putting it in black bags as more trash falls from above.
The devil comes over to him and puts his arm around his shoulder. 'I don't understand,' stammers the MP. 'Yesterday I was here and there was a golf course and clubhouse, and we ate lobster and caviar, drank champagne, and danced and had a great time.. Now there's just a wasteland full of garbage and my friends look miserable.
What happened?'
The devil looks at him, smiles and says, 'Yesterday we were campaigning... ...
Today you voted.'
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
:
So, Labour published its manifesto today (and a copy can be read here). In the introduction, it says: quote:
As we more than halve the fiscal deficit over the next four years, we will ensure that we do so in a fair way with a combination of a return to economic growth, cuts to lower priority programmes and fair tax rises. Responsibility at the top means people paying their fair share and we believe it is right that those with the broadest shoulders bear the greatest burden of paying down the deficit.
This brings me back to a question that I asked a while ago and never got a decent answer to. It seems to me that Labour are saying that they aren't going to make any effort to reduce the size of Britain's debt, but only reduce the rate at which the debt is increasing. Have I interpreted this paragraph directly? If this is so, what does the final phrase "paying down the deficit" actually mean?
Posted by Deckhand (# 15545) on
:
quote:
[/QB]Originally posted by New Yorker:
I'm curious. It appears to me that most on board the Ship are left of center politically. Is there any British shipmate who plans on voting Conservative or UKIP? [/QB]
Me too.
Posted by leo (# 1458) on
:
I came out as LibDem followed by Green. No figures for Labour and Tories were a definite no no.
I was irked by a small UKIP rating - I would rather swallow my own vomit than vote for them.
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by ken:
The Times leads the charge to the bottom of the food-chain by using dodgy reporting to manufacture fake stories.
Well spotted. I'm reminded of a well-known moment in The Simpsons when a spoof news ticker reads 'Do Democrats cause cancer? Find out at foxnews.com'? It must be just a coincidence that Fox News and the London Times have the same owner ...
My guesses for news headlines on election day ...
Daily Mail: "Gordon Brown would use tax-payers' money to provide free 5-bedroom houses in Surrey for asylum seekers who cause cancer in hard-working families"
The Guardian: "If David Cameron wins today, will the last person to leave Britain turn off the solar-powered ciabatta bread machine?"
Posted by Mr. Spouse (# 3353) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
I was irked by a small UKIP rating - I would rather swallow my own vomit than vote for them.
I got -32 for UKIP. Should have been lower...
Posted by Eigon (# 4917) on
:
Carys - Hay-on-Wye is in Brecon and Radnor constituency - our MP is Roger Williams - who hasn't had his snout in the trough as much as some of the others, but still....
Posted by Sober Preacher's Kid (# 12699) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
So, Labour published its manifesto today (and a copy can be read here). In the introduction, it says: quote:
As we more than halve the fiscal deficit over the next four years, we will ensure that we do so in a fair way with a combination of a return to economic growth, cuts to lower priority programmes and fair tax rises. Responsibility at the top means people paying their fair share and we believe it is right that those with the broadest shoulders bear the greatest burden of paying down the deficit.
This brings me back to a question that I asked a while ago and never got a decent answer to. It seems to me that Labour are saying that they aren't going to make any effort to reduce the size of Britain's debt, but only reduce the rate at which the debt is increasing. Have I interpreted this paragraph directly? If this is so, what does the final phrase "paying down the deficit" actually mean?
Nations rarely actually "pay down their debt" in nominal terms. The real comparison is debt to national income, aka GDP. A nation can still be a net borrower, but if economic growth means that it's debt/GDP ratio declines, then its debt load declines too.
If over a period of 5 years an national economy grows 20%, but national debt only grows 10%, it seen as equivalent to paying down 10% of national debt. This is a Good Thing.
Posted by Alicïa (# 7668) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by RadicalWhig:
This site is fun (it's a "who should you vote for" thing).
For what it's worth (not much) it recommends that I should vote Green, followed by LibDem. If I were in England, that's exactly what I'd do (i.e. vote Green in a seat where they had some vague chance of winning, otherwise vote LibDem).
Thanks for the link.
I have been leaning towards Liberal Democrats for a while, and thats just helped me realise I should take a closer look at the Greens as well. Greens first Lib Dems seconds according to the results.
As for any kind of tactical vote, I have come to a different conclusion. I'm so disillusioned with politics that I no longer really care if they have any chance of winning, I am just going to vote for who I want to. Probably LibDem.
Nick Clegg was excellent on the Paxman interview last night I thought. Did anyone else here see that?
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
:
I just watched it on YouTube. Paxman is a tool sometimes, but I thought Clegg handled him relatively well. He has a slightly patronising habit of asking "alright?" half-way through a sentence, which I found rather annoying. Perhaps he has to talk like he's addressing a toddler when Jeremy is being deliberately obtuse.
Posted by iGeek (# 777) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
Is there any British shipmate who plans on voting Conservative
Of course a British Conservative ain't nothing like a US Conservative.
quote:
"We are the party of the National Health Service today because we not only back the values of the NHS, we back its funding and we have a vision for its future."
As Andrew Sullivan notes, it "makes Obamacare look like a Tea Party project."
The center is relative.
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
:
One has to remember that there's quite a bit of nuance to be put on top of that statement. (I assume it was Cameron who made it.) There is no way any politician would get elected in the UK if they didn't say those words. However, when you look at some of the detail, it turns out that the Tories want to move the method of funding to something much closer to a single payer system. That actually represents a pretty major shift in the ethos of the NHS, and would probably be more controversial if more people knew about it.
Of course, he doesn't phrase it like that. He talks about vouchers and "choice" and other nice-sounding words, but the long and short of it is that he wants to take money out of the NHS and use it to subsidise middle class people who want to go to private hospitals for their treatment.
Yet another reason why a Conservative majority would be a very Bad Thing™: The devil is in the detail.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
What's controversial about it? As I understand it, Labour have been using NHS money to send people to private hospitals.
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
:
That may be: I haven't heard. Do you have a link?
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
I'm afraid I don't, but I seem to recall reading something to that effect a couple of years ago.
There has been a lot of private sector money pouring into the NHS. I imagine that involvement of the private sector is designed to improve efficiency (which I imagine is woefully lacking in the NHS). I can't say that is really a problem, if the service for patients is still free at the point of use.
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
:
Well, there's at least two places where private companies have been used: Firstly (obviously) with PPP. But that's about getting hospitals built and not directly about providing care. Also, contractors have been used extensively for cleaning, catering and other non-medical tasks.
But those things are both fundamentally different from directly using NHS money to pay for care in a private hospital.
Now, I take your point about it still being free at the point of use, and I am not opposed to a single payer system on principle. But I think the Tories are being rather underhand in that they are trying to implement this by the back door, and only for those who are rich enough to be able to pay the difference in cost. That is fundamentally unfair, and comes across (to me at least) as pandering to the upper half of middle England, who are a large part of his core vote.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
But I think the Tories are being rather underhand in that they are trying to implement this by the back door, and only for those who are rich enough to be able to pay the difference in cost. That is fundamentally unfair, and comes across (to me at least) as pandering to the upper half of middle England, who are a large part of his core vote.
I'm not sure exactly what you have in mind here, but we had a situation a little while ago where some hospital patients weren't not given some drugs and, when they offered to pay for them, were told that buying them privately would disqualify them from any NHS treatment. That struck me as terribly unfair.
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
:
Specifically, I was referring to the 'Patient Passports' that the Tories were talking about a while back. They seem to have dropped that phrase from their manifesto, but it does say: quote:
So we will give every patient the power to choose any healthcare provider that meets NHS standards, within NHS prices. This includes independent, voluntary and community sector providers. We will make patients’ choices meaningful by:- putting patients in charge of making decisions about their care, including control of their health records;
- spreading the use of the NHS tariff, so funding follows patients’ choices; and,
- making sure good performance is rewarded
by implementing a payment by results system, improving quality.
This amounts to pretty much the same thing.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
I don't see why this is a bad thing. If the NHS is a monopoly supplier of healthcare (which it virtually is) then I imagine the whole system becomes inefficient. Allowing patients to go to a health care provider of their choice presumably introduces a kind of quasi-competition which improves NHS efficiency?
Labour came to power in 1997 with a pledge to abolish the Tories' 'internal market' but didn't they end up essentially re-introducing it because it actually worked?
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
I've been to a private hospital for an NHS ordered investigation - so it has happened in the past, and I suspect it is still an option. What is certainly a feature of the NHS is that it has contracted out a load of routine operations to some private health care providers in the expectation that this would be more efficient.
My own preference for the NHS is that the money would be given to local authorities to pay whatever supplier they felt like, providing whatever services the local authority, as a democratically elected unit, believed was right for their area. Of course this would lead to more cries of 'post code lottery' - but those need to be faced down. At the moment we have the money provided to Primary Care Trusts - which are QUANGOs appointed by central government - largely paying money to central government owned hospitals. This minimises the freedom of PCTs to do things really relevant to their area. It also means that half the budget for 'care' comes from the NHS and the other from Local Authority Social Services - a particularly unnecessary cause of conflict.
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
I don't see why this is a bad thing. If the NHS is a monopoly supplier of healthcare (which it virtually is) then I imagine the whole system becomes inefficient. Allowing patients to go to a health care provider of their choice presumably introduces a kind of quasi-competition which improves NHS efficiency?
Insofar as your point goes, I can't disagree. Like I said before, I don't have an issue with a transparent single payer system. The problem that I have with patient passports is that there is an inherent inequality in the system. If there is a price difference between what your procedure would cost in an NHS facility, and the price in the facility that you go to, then you have to pay that difference. That immediately prices out a lot of people with lower incomes from using those facilities, and (probably) from 'jumping the queue'.
I'm aware that this is what already happens with private healthcare, but I think it is wrong for a government to endorse and enhance this inequality. I also agree with you that there was a time when public money was used to pay for people to have treatment in private facilities in a bid to get waiting lists down. So far as I'm aware* there was no additional cost to the patient in these cases, and the patient's financial position was not a factor in determining where they would be treated. In essence, it was a fair system.
What bugs me about the Tories is that they appear to be pandering to middle England, not helping those at the bottom of the ladder. In my opinion, health care is not the only place where this charge can be put, and this is why I cannot see myself voting for them.
* and I'm not an expert, so will gladly be corrected on this if I'm wrong.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
How does it increase inequality?
Let's say 10 people have cancer and the NHS is prepared to spend £5,000 per head on cancer treatment. Three of those people take their £5,000, add £1,000 of their own money, and go to a private hospital.
How are the remaining seven worse off? If anything, aren't they better off because the other three won't be using the NHS hospital (and are therefore off the waiting list)?
As long as the seven in the NHS hospital have a decent level of care, I don't see the problem.
Posted by Ricardus (# 8757) on
:
I should have thought it also reduces the inequality insofar as it opens up the possibility of private healthcare to many more people even when it costs more than the NHS will pay for.
e.g. In the scenario outlined by Anglican't, suddenly private cancer treatment is available to people with £1000 to spend, instead of requiring £6000+.
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
:
The times does better: JK Rowling on irrelevance of Tory policy from the point of view of single mothers.
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
How does it increase inequality?
It doesn't increase inequality: It is inherently unequal. Privately provided healthcare is often 'better' than the equivalent on the NHS*. It is offensive to me that some people get access to a better standard of healthcare purely on their ability to pay for it. As I said before, I understand that this happens already, and there is nothing that can be done about it**. But I think it's morally wrong for the government to endorse that inequality by partially paying for it.
* At least in the sense of shorter waiting time, more comfortable conditions in the hospital, and perhaps better (or at least, higher paid) doctors.
** I would not advocate the banning of private healthcare.
Posted by Sleepwalker (# 15343) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
Privately provided healthcare is often 'better' than the equivalent on the NHS*.
* At least in the sense of shorter waiting time, more comfortable conditions in the hospital, and perhaps better (or at least, higher paid) doctors.
I'm glad you qualified your statement. Because, particularly where cancer care is concerned, the only difference between NHS and private healthcare systems will be the comfortable conditions of the hospital and the quality of the food. Oh, and whether you have your own room with TV in it, etc, etc. I doubt very much that private healthcare offers better quality medical care in this country. What people who can afford it are paying for are the luxuries, not the necessities. I would imagine it would be far better for those who can afford the luxuries to go off and do so while those who cannot, are provided with the necessities more quickly.
Posted by NJA (# 13022) on
:
It there any rationale behind the UKIP election slogan?
I suspect this kind of language will alienate many people who don't want it in public life, it makes UK people look like crude half-wits.
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sleepwalker:
quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
Privately provided healthcare is often 'better' than the equivalent on the NHS*.
* At least in the sense of shorter waiting time, more comfortable conditions in the hospital, and perhaps better (or at least, higher paid) doctors.
I'm glad you qualified your statement. Because, particularly where cancer care is concerned, the only difference between NHS and private healthcare systems will be the comfortable conditions of the hospital and the quality of the food. Oh, and whether you have your own room with TV in it, etc, etc. I doubt very much that private healthcare offers better quality medical care in this country. What people who can afford it are paying for are the luxuries, not the necessities. I would imagine it would be far better for those who can afford the luxuries to go off and do so while those who cannot, are provided with the necessities more quickly.
Private Healthcare is generally not better, but in often worse. Nice rooms, food etc. but not necessarily the same standard of care.
Talk to any surgeon or anaethetist. All of my colleagues who I've had this conversation with say the same thing. ONLY for something very minor and very straight forward would they go private.
AFZ
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by NJA:
It there any rationale behind the UKIP election slogan?
I suspect this kind of language will alienate many people who don't want it in public life, it makes UK people look like crude half-wits.
Yes - it elegantly summaries the attitude of a large proportion of the population, in the same way that the Sex Pistols crudities did when they were in fashion... I doubt most people would raise an eyebrow, let alone worry that ' it makes UK people look like crude half-wits'.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
quote:
Originally posted by NJA:
It there any rationale behind the UKIP election slogan?
I suspect this kind of language will alienate many people who don't want it in public life, it makes UK people look like crude half-wits.
Yes - it elegantly summaries the attitude of a large proportion of the population, in the same way that the Sex Pistols crudities did when they were in fashion... I doubt most people would raise an eyebrow, let alone worry that ' it makes UK people look like crude half-wits'.
Did the Sex Pistols really summarise the attitude of a "large proportion of the population"? I don't know where you were in 1976 but while any number of 13-25 year-olds loved it they weren't desperately popular with everyone else. Heck I was 18 when they appeared on TV with Bill Grundy and wrecked his career, and I thought they were yet another bunch of self-indulgent galoots. Were it not for Malcolm Maclaren no-one would have heard of them.
btw, aren't UKIP simply another variety of the sods they despise?
Posted by aumbry (# 436) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by NJA:
It there any rationale behind the UKIP election slogan?
I suspect this kind of language will alienate many people who don't want it in public life, it makes UK people look like crude half-wits.
From my experience it more or less encapsulates perfectly the view the vast majority of the British public have of the political class who have served this country so poorly.
I can only imagine you are living in a home for bewildered gentlefolk if you find that offensive.
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
btw, aren't UKIP simply another variety of the sods they despise?
No, because they stand up for the traditional British right to smear children in lard and boil Frenchmen in chipfat, or whatever else the despicable sods on the Brussels sauce béarnaise train trying to ban this week.
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by NJA:
It there any rationale behind the UKIP election slogan?
I don't know about 'rationale' but it makes them sound like the drunk down the pub who's spent the last half-hour explaining some convoluted conspiracy theory that noone else believes: "Sod the lot of you", he'll say as he staggers towards the gents in a storm of half-faked petulance.
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by NJA:
It there any rationale behind the UKIP election slogan?
Yes. Its a direct appeal to the notion that a the slimy liberals who run all the main political parties won't admit what everyone really secretly knows, which is that its all been taken over by immigrants, but the Race Relations Industry and Political Correctness stops anyone saying it in public.
If they were one notch more xenophobic they'd be saying stuff like "The White Man has no rights in His Own Country". Though they probably have the sense to leave that up to the BNP.
They depend on taking Tory votes by making the Tories seem soft on immigrants, foreigners, the EU and suchlike. So they blow it if they come out too far. Though that might have the pleasant side-effect of taking a few possible BNP votes.
I doubt if there is much they can do to increase the almost certainly risible small vote they will get next month - they are on their way to contesting for sixth or seventh place & vanishing from both the opinion polls and the bookies odds - but they may be able to influence whether that tiny vote comes mostly from the Tories or the BNP. If (as seems to be the case) they are getting less secretive about their underlying racism it probably means they will take fewer Tory votes and more potential BNP ones.
You can see where they are coming from from this news - last week's headline was London UKIP election candidate in racism row - but that seems alright by their party leadership. This week the same candidate said bad things about the queen and got the boot. Racism is OK by them, anti-monarchism isn't.
(Supposedly he said she was a German bitch who sold us out to Europe - but I haven't seen that on his website myself)
Posted by aumbry (# 436) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by ken:
quote:
Originally posted by NJA:
It there any rationale behind the UKIP election slogan?
I doubt if there is much they can do to increase the almost certainly risible small vote they will get next month - they are on their way to contesting for sixth or seventh place & vanishing from both the opinion polls and the bookies odds......
Isn't this the party that came third in the Euro-elections and narrowly missed beating Labour to second place? They certainly beat the LibDems into fourth place.
If they come sixth in this poll (and I suspect that all the minor parties will end up doing much better than predicted) then that would be more of a reflection of the distorting effect of the first past the post voting system than an indication of their popularity.
Ken - your favourite political ploy is to attack others as racist although there is nothing in the UKIP agenda that falls into that category - so it is just a lazy smear. It didn't of course stop you from supporting Ken Livingstone in the London Mayoral elections whose record on making antisemitic remarks was very dubious.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by aumbry:
Isn't [UKIP] the party that came third in the Euro-elections and narrowly missed beating Labour to second place? They certainly beat the LibDems into fourth place.
If they come sixth in this poll (and I suspect that all the minor parties will end up doing much better than predicted) then that would be more of a reflection of the distorting effect of the first past the post voting system than an indication of their popularity.
It would be more to do with the fact that UKIP are very much a single-issue party, namely "get Britain out of the EU". They always get more support in European elections where their single issue is very relevant than in general elections where it is but one issue among many, and not the most important one by a long shot.
It's also to do with the fact that European elections as virtually irrelevant, making them safer venues for an idealistic or protest vote. In general elections, voters tend to play it safe and gravitate to the three main parties. The Green and BNP shares of the vote will fall compared to the European elections, as well as that of UKIP.
To cut a long story short, UKIP won't come sixth or lower because of FPTP, they'll do so because less people will vote for them in a serious election that isn't about their primary policy.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by aumbry:
Isn't this the party [UKIP] that came third in the Euro-elections and narrowly missed beating Labour to second place? They certainly beat the LibDems into fourth place.
UKIP came came second in the 2009 European Elections. Labour was narrowly beaten into third place.
In the South East of England, Labour came fifth. As was the case in the South West.
(You'll have to look up the links for yourself. The HTML tags contain parentheses, which are apparently forbidden on here).
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
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On another note, anyone going to watch the debate tonight?
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
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quote:
Originally posted by aumbry:
Ken - your favourite political ploy is to attack others as racist
Yah boo sucks to you! See what I care
If you can read what UKIP have been saying and not realise they are essentially about xenophobia then you are looking at them through very very tinted glasses.
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
In general elections, voters tend to play it safe and gravitate to the three main parties. The Green and BNP shares of the vote will fall compared to the European elections, as well as that of UKIP.
To cut a long story short, UKIP won't come sixth or lower because of FPTP, they'll do so because less people will vote for them in a serious election that isn't about their primary policy.
Yes, exactly.
The top three parties in terms of total votes nationwide are almost certain to be Tory, Labour, Liberal, and almost certain to be in that order.
After them Green, UKIP, BNP for places 4 5 & 6 in terms of total vote and I have no idea in which order they will come (I'd hope that one of course, but I have no real idea)
I'd be mildly surprised if the Greens win even one seat, and astonished were they to win more than two or three. BNP and UKIP are likely to win none at all, if either of them does its more likeley to be BNP even if they get fewer votes nationally, because their vote is likely to be more concentrated.
The main nationalist or regional parties such as SNP, the Democratic Unionists, Plaid Cymru and Sinn Féin (though probably not the Ulster Unionists or SDLP any more, much as I would prefer them to still be in the running) will each get more seats than Green/UKIP/BNP put together, and the SNP will probably get more total votes than one or two or even all three three of them (separately rather than together in this case).
So in total votes cast the UK picture is likely to be something like:
1. Tory
2. Labour
3. Liberal
[...big gap...]
4. Green
5. SNP
6. UKIP
7. DU
8. SF
9. BNP
10. PC
11. UU
12. SDLP
The order of things in the middle part of the list, say places 4-10, is very unpredictable. But it is extremely unlikely that any of those parties will end up anywhere near the top three or that they will drop below tenth place. Does anyone here, even Aumbry, seriously not believe that that is the likely outcome of the election for the minor parties? If so why not put money on it? You will get very good odds.
And in seats in Parliament is probably going to be something like:
1. Tory
2. Labour
[...big gap...]
3. Liberal
[...another big gap...]
4 DU
5. SNP
6. SF
7. PC
With UU, Green, Independent and SDLP struggling for even one or two seats each and everyone else probably nowhere. The exact order of the regional parties depends heavily on the political mood in Northern Ireland which might be rather volatile of course. There is an electoral pact between the Unionists and the Conservatives which could push other parties in or out of the frame - no-one knows yet.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
I should have thought it also reduces the inequality insofar as it opens up the possibility of private healthcare to many more people even when it costs more than the NHS will pay for.
It does so at the cost of taking money out of the NHS. Saying that it relieves pressure on the NHS is quite wrong. The pressure on the NHS isn't due to lack of facilities: most hospitals have more than enough material beds and wards. What the NHS doesn't have at the moment is enough trained staff. This is because the NHS is already subsidising the private sector by paying for the training of the private sector's doctors and nurses. (The NHS is also subsidising the private sector by taking over the treatment of emergency cases and operations that go wrong.)
It also means that the NHS becomes a default second-class service and seen as such: the politicians and people running the NHS see it not as striving for excellence but as a safety net for people who can't afford anything else. That is not good for the NHS as a whole.
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
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Broadly agree with Ken's placings.
Two independent unionists likely to win seats in Northern Ireland.
Greens are now odds on to get one seat (Brighton Pavilion.)
SNP seat numbers I find quite difficult to predict. They have a potential upside they haven't achieved for 25 years, but maybe this time.
Quite likely there will be some sort of pact at Westminster between SNP, PC and Greens.
The UKIP leader is challenging the Speaker seeking re-election in Buckingham. If they had a chance of winning a seat 'normally' then they wouldn't be pulling stunts like that.
Posted by Alicïa (# 7668) on
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Brilliant debate tonight!
youGov says that Nick Clegg won the debate tonight by a country mile. Bring it on!
Clegg 51% Cameron 28% Brown 19%
Also see The Guardian
[ 15. April 2010, 21:51: Message edited by: Alicïa ]
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
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quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
SNP seat numbers I find quite difficult to predict. They have a potential upside they haven't achieved for 25 years, but maybe this time.
Difficult; the BBC and the London-based parties have stitched it up by excluding the SNP from the leaders' debates and by minimising their media coverage. They'll be lucky to get 10 seats - much less than their share of the vote would warrant, but the electoral system skews things heavily in favour of Labour.
quote:
Quite likely there will be some sort of pact at Westminster between SNP, PC and Greens.
Certainly SNP and PC are planning to co-operate to maximise their coalition potential; not sure about whether the Greens would be in.
[ 15. April 2010, 21:52: Message edited by: RadicalWhig ]
Posted by The Revolutionist (# 4578) on
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No big revelations - I thought that Brown had the most content and substance, with Clegg being the most personable and relaxed. Not particularly in-depth, but I wasn't expecting it to be.
My first reactions in more detail are on my blog. It hasn't really helped me make my mind up, to be honest - the Welsh debate on Tuesday might help.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
It's also to do with the fact that European elections as virtually irrelevant, making them safer venues for an idealistic or protest vote.
Given the quantity of legislation that is the responsibility of Europe, not Westminster, the fact that the people and even MtM believe this is yet another failure of our ruling class to communicate the truth.
Posted by Jigsaw (# 11433) on
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quote:
Originally posted by The Revolutionist:
No big revelations - I thought that Brown had the most content and substance, with Clegg being the most personable and relaxed. Not particularly in-depth, but I wasn't expecting it to be.
Brown talked hard sense with substance, but looked ugly and awkward. Clegg looked lively and attractive, made some good points, but couldn't match Brown for a real grasp of the issues. Clegg seems to have won the popular vote by a long chalk. I thought that introducing party leader debates into UK election campaigns was a Good Thing, but I do worry that it's just going to be a charm contest.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
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Clegg easily won it last night, with Cameron second and Gordon a poor third (IMO). Cameron missed opportunities to clarify the water between him and Brown, in particular on the whole big -v- small government debate; the nearest he got to a soundbite was his "cut the waste to stop the jobs tax" quote, and he should have made more of that. Brown just came across as wooden, mechanical and clunky, and did himself no other favours by smirking inanely whilst the other two were talking.
Posted by dyfrig (# 15) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
Given the quantity of legislation that is the responsibility of Europe, not Westminster, the fact that the people and even MtM believe this is yet another failure of our ruling class to communicate the truth.
I've been pondering this perception, trying to work out what it actually means.
What statistical basis is being used to make this calculation? Are we counting by word, section or complete act?
Posted by Jonathan Strange (# 11001) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Jigsaw:
I thought that introducing party leader debates into UK election campaigns was a Good Thing, but I do worry that it's just going to be a charm contest.
I just hope it doesn't confuse voters into thinking we have a presidential system.
Posted by Barnabas62 (# 9110) on
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A hung parliament?
I suppose Broon was bound to get caned in the vox-pop polls about who did best. It's a bit hard to charm when you're charmless.
Reminded of a line from Eliza Bennet, contrasting Mr Wickham and Mr Darcy. Something like "One has all the appearance of it, the other has it. And for my part it's all Mr Darcy's". For all his charmlessness, IMO Broon has more substance than the other two put together.
Alas poor Gordo. When it comes to politics, this is a pretty superficial age. He can't win either a beauty contest or a charm contest.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
It's also to do with the fact that European elections as virtually irrelevant, making them safer venues for an idealistic or protest vote.
Given the quantity of legislation that is the responsibility of Europe, not Westminster, the fact that the people and even MtM believe this is yet another failure of our ruling class to communicate the truth.
Even if that were true, rather than debatable, the simple fact that whomever the UK votes for in European Elections makes no difference to the overall continent-wide result is what I'm referring to. The French/German/Spanish parties are the ones that set the agenda.
Even if every single British seat in the European Parliament was filled by a member of Labour, or Conservative, or the Monster Raving Looney Party, nothing would change. We simply don't have enough seats to make a difference. It follows that who we vote for doesn't make a difference, which means European elections are irrelevant.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Even if that were true, rather than debatable, the simple fact that whomever the UK votes for in European Elections makes no difference to the overall continent-wide result is what I'm referring to. The French/German/Spanish parties are the ones that set the agenda.
Even if every single British seat in the European Parliament was filled by a member of Labour, or Conservative, or the Monster Raving Looney Party, nothing would change. We simply don't have enough seats to make a difference. It follows that who we vote for doesn't make a difference, which means European elections are irrelevant.
Well - Channel 4's fact check blog tends to agree with you, against the opinion of a UK government minister, let alone a former German President; once more we must learn to stop taking politicians declaring facts too seriously. However it is still significant. And your claim that UK MEPs can't influence the legislation is surely deeply flawed; the assumption that a conspiracy of Germany, France and Spain are forcing through legislation despite having less than third of the seats (244 out of 750) suggests a degree of paranoia, whilst the assumption that a well presented rational case will always be ignored is equally improbable.
Personally I would like to see the Eurosceptic party grouping which the Conservatives MEPs have joined stand in the whole of the EU - especially France and Germany - and see how solidly pro-European those countries' right wing voters really are
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Jonathan Strange:
quote:
Originally posted by Jigsaw:
I thought that introducing party leader debates into UK election campaigns was a Good Thing, but I do worry that it's just going to be a charm contest.
I just hope it doesn't confuse voters into thinking we have a presidential system.
Sadly, I think many think that already. How many times have you heard someone say, "I've voting for Brown/Cameron/Clegg"? Of course, in effect we have a Prime Ministerial system, which is neither presidential (although it acts a bit like it) nor parliamentary (although it pretends to be).
Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on
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quote:
Originally posted by dyfrig:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
Given the quantity of legislation that is the responsibility of Europe, not Westminster, the fact that the people and even MtM believe this is yet another failure of our ruling class to communicate the truth.
I've been pondering this perception, trying to work out what it actually means.
What statistical basis is being used to make this calculation? Are we counting by word, section or complete act?
No actual source, but in an article in last week's Economist (which is hardly noted for its pro-European editorial line) on how a Tory victory might affect the UK's relationship with the rest of the EU, had this to say about this question (emphasis mine):
quote:
Making things worse is a profound ignorance of what the EU does and how it works. The mistaken belief that the EU is repsonsible for as much as 80% of all legislation in Europe (it is no more than 50%) and a lack of understanding of the role of national governments [...] in passing EU laws, have fostered the belief that an unaccountable and undemocratic machine in Brussels is somehow usurping the ancient role of Parliament. The media reinforce this belief...
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Cameron missed opportunities to clarify the water between him and Brown, in particular on the whole big -v- small government debate; the nearest he got to a soundbite was his "cut the waste to stop the jobs tax" quote, and he should have made more of that.
I wish he'd stop calling it a "jobs tax". It's as if he thinks NICs didn't exist before! Like the "death tax", I think that kind of language is mildly dishonest, and I'm surprised that Labour hasn't picked him up on that.
I find the Conservative position that there is an additional £6 billion of efficiency savings to be made in the next nine months above what the government has already said it will do to be rather implausible. Cameron talks about not raising the pay of a few at the top of the health service, and a few other bits here and there, but how can he seriously think this can be done (especially if NHS spending is 'ringfenced')?
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
[QB]And your claim that UK MEPs can't influence the legislation is surely deeply flawed; the assumption that a conspiracy of Germany, France and Spain are forcing through legislation despite having less than third of the seats (244 out of 750) suggests a degree of paranoia, whilst the assumption that a well presented rational case will always be ignored is equally improbable.[QB]
The party groupings in the European parliament are huge, and each is dominated by the "classical EU" block of countries. We don't (and can't) have enough members of any grouping to even influence what it does, never mind what the whole parliament does.
To compare it to the House of Commons: it's like the entire UK is equivalent to Plaid Cymru. Sure they're there, but it's not like they're going to significantly affect policy in any meaningful way. They could vote however they bloody well liked in any given election and it would still turn out the same.
Posted by Gildas (# 525) on
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Admittedly I only caught five minutes of it before deciding that re-reading the Hobbit was a better use of my time but it sounded as if Cameron was arguing that by dropping the NI increase there would be more money to spend on the NHS. Which makes less sense than demanding Clegg and Brown tell him what he has got in his pocketses.
My impression, given the starting presuppositons that Dave is lovely, Gordon is the bogeyman and that other bloke is a bit of a non-entity is that Brown was playing a straight bat and doing OK, Cameron wasn't doing as well as some might have hoped and Nick Clegg was cooking on gas. I woke up this morning to find that this is now the conventional wisdom. So I was almost certainly mistaken.
[x-posted with Marvin.]
[ 16. April 2010, 11:32: Message edited by: Gildas ]
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Gildas:
.. it sounded as if Cameron was arguing that by dropping the NI increase there would be more money to spend on the NHS. Which makes less sense than demanding Clegg and Brown tell him what he has got in his pocketses.
He was claiming that, and in a certain way he's right. The NHS has to pay NICs for its employees, so putting up the rate of National Insurance (the Labour policy) will cost the NHS money. But the Tories have neatly 'ringfenced' NHS spending, so the impact of not putting NICs up (Tory policy) will not affect spending on health (although clearly it has to affect something, somewhere). Now, I think this argument is so myopic that it's laughable, but I would say that, wouldn't I?!
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Cameron missed opportunities to clarify the water between him and Brown, in particular on the whole big -v- small government debate; the nearest he got to a soundbite was his "cut the waste to stop the jobs tax" quote, and he should have made more of that.
I wish he'd stop calling it a "jobs tax". It's as if he thinks NICs didn't exist before! Like the "death tax", I think that kind of language is mildly dishonest, and I'm surprised that Labour hasn't picked him up on that.
An increase in NICs is effectively a tax on jobs and takes money out of the economy, so I don't think he was being dishonest there.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
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I HATE! HATE! HATE! NICs!
Taxation is necessary, so why not come clean and increase income tax. That at least affects everyone. It all goes into the Treasury's pot to be doled out at the chancellor's whim. The advantage of NIC increases is that it doesn't affect unearned income (savings, dividends, pensions) so they won't lose the grey vote.
I'd rather scrap NICs, increase income & corporation taxes to make up the shortfall and increase personal allowance so that the only old folks who do lose are on a pretty good income already (like retired civil service mandarins).
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
An increase in NICs is effectively a tax on jobs and takes money out of the economy, so I don't think he was being dishonest there.
To clarify - because the employer's side is an invisible tax for most of us - NI contributions come from both the employer AND the employee. An increase in the rate, as proposed by labour, of the rate that employers pay IS a tax on jobs - because the employer will have to pay more cash to the government for every employee that they have - surely the definition of a 'Tax'.
Posted by dyfrig (# 15) on
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Turns out I wasn't the only one asking the question.
ISTM that Nick Clegg "won" last night's debate because it finally caused people to say "Oh, that's who he is!" as opposed to "I thought Vince Cable was in charge of the LibDems".
Posted by Pooks (# 11425) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Alas poor Gordo. When it comes to politics, this is a pretty superficial age. He can't win either a beauty contest or a charm contest.
Aye. I am slightly bemused by the clamour to rate the debaters. With the media focus so much on the leaders themselves and their performance, there is a danger that the policies become secondary to any reason to vote for a particular party. Given that the parties can change their leaders at any time, I think some voters might feel short changed if that were to happen. But that's what happens if we are not clear in our mind that we are voting for a party, not a personality.
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
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What is the point of a studio audience which cannot clap, laugh, boo, jeer, or shout?
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
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quote:
Originally posted by RadicalWhig:
What is the point of a studio audience which cannot clap, laugh, boo, jeer, or shout?
Well, if they could it would be unseemly and rude and . . . . a bit like Prime Minister's Questions at the House of Commons I suppose.
Maybe Hon. Members should be asked to sit down and shut up at PMQ's?
Posted by Erroneous Monk (# 10858) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
An increase in NICs is effectively a tax on jobs and takes money out of the economy, so I don't think he was being dishonest there.
To clarify - because the employer's side is an invisible tax for most of us - NI contributions come from both the employer AND the employee. An increase in the rate, as proposed by labour, of the rate that employers pay IS a tax on jobs - because the employer will have to pay more cash to the government for every employee that they have - surely the definition of a 'Tax'.
Agreed. And because the public sector employers (chiefly the NHS) have huge NI bills, increasing NI is in fact a public sector spending cut by another name. I think this is really underhand.
Posted by dyfrig (# 15) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Erroneous Monk:
Agreed. And because the public sector employers (chiefly the NHS) have huge NI bills, increasing NI is in fact a public sector spending cut by another name. I think this is really underhand.
Indeed.
Say, for the sake of argument, the public sector pays £100m on wages - if NI employer contributions are set at 4%, the public sector "spends" £104m (we'll ignore pensions for now) and is given this amount by the Treasury, who get £4m of it back - thus the net public spend is £100m.
Now, say the government achieves savings which means the public sector only gets £104m - no rise in the headline rate for wage costs, but how that £104m has got to account for a 5% contribution rate - that means the wage bill has to fall to roughly £99.1m to hit this budget, the Treasury gets £4.9m back in.
The private sector can put prices up to recoup some of the amount which, of course, will also mean an increase the actual amount of VAT paid on an item by the consumer - so more revenue for the Treasury, to put against reducing the debt.
In this scenario, a party pledging to reverse the NIC rise would have to increase public spending by .9% in order to pay for the loss to the Treasury of the benefit it gains from the public sector, and the private setor, having recovered most of its losses by raising prices, will then benefit further from a decrease in NIC which, of course, they would not pass onto the consumer (because they don't have to) who is then paying more VAT because the prices have gone up.
And in the end everybody goes back to tacitly acknolwedging that a modern, democratice society with the type of services that most people think we should have requires about 37% of GDP to be pooled for the common good, however you extract it.
Entirely unrelated topic - if the Tories get in but with a minority requiring an alliance with the DUP, does that mean the latter will screw the country for everything its got in order to dismantle the Irish peace process?
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
An increase in NICs is effectively a tax on jobs and takes money out of the economy, so I don't think he was being dishonest there.
I'm not disagreeing with the content of your statement, but when Cameron says "Labour are going to introduce a jobs tax", or even "Labour's tax on jobs" he makes it sound like something new. That is extremely disingenuous. If the rate increase is that bad an idea, why not argue that on its merits rather than bandying around an emotive name.
And people don't trust politicians to be straight with them. Hardly surprising, really.
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
quote:
Originally posted by RadicalWhig:
What is the point of a studio audience which cannot clap, laugh, boo, jeer, or shout?
Well, if they could it would be unseemly and rude and . . . . a bit like Prime Minister's Questions at the House of Commons I suppose.
Maybe Hon. Members should be asked to sit down and shut up at PMQ's?
Good point well made.
Posted by leo (# 1458) on
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I thought Clegg was by far the best with Gordon brown a poor but solid second.
Cameron? Useless, vacuous deceiver.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
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quote:
Originally posted by leo:
I thought Clegg was by far the best with Gordon brown a poor but solid second.
Cameron? Useless, vacuous deceiver.
Funny, I thought Brown was the useless, vacuous deciever. Agree on Clegg though.
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
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I disagree, because at least you know what you're getting with Brown. For better or worse, his record as Chancellor and PM speaks for itself. There's no reason to think he'd be much different after an election.
But Cameron is harder to read. I still fear that he's old-school Tory with a nice smile, and I fear that his actions in Number 10 would benefit the Tory faithful rather than the whole country. I don't even really mean the flagship stuff that everybody is talking about: I mean the behind-the-scenes stuff. The detail of exactly what gets cut, the fine print of his 'emergency budget', increased power on committees for his MPs, control of the legislative agenda, and so on. Dyed-in-the-wool Tories with that kind of power is not a good thing, IMNVHO.
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
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quote:
Originally posted by dyfrig:
Entirely unrelated topic - if the Tories get in but with a minority requiring an alliance with the DUP, does that mean the latter will screw the country for everything its got in order to dismantle the Irish peace process?
No, why would they want to do that, given they have the First Minister position in Northern Ireland?
They would obviously hope for some economic dividends for Northern Ireland and their electorate, but it would be like a US Senator getting a hydro-electric plant in North Dakota in exchange for his support on welfare reform.
And the government could get it through on socio-economic grounds as well as the Peace Process.
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
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I agree with Imaginary Friend: there's a lot more to the Conservatives than Cameron, and they are keeping that well-hidden behind the smile. That includes some "Red Tories" (who I want to like, but still can't quite get the measure of) and lots of doctrinaire Thatcherites. I cannot bring myself to believe for a moment that the Conservatives would do much for anyone who lives north of Oxford and/or makes less than fifty grand a year (except, perhaps, pandering to their fears and prejudices).
I don't trust the Conservative's instincts. I've been to the Home Counties, seen the prosperous Tory towns with their nice gardens. From that perspective, life is pretty swell. All it needs is some fine tuning by the "Natural Party of Government". But I've also been to Carluke, Cumbernauld, Motherwell and Renton, and I know that life is far from swell. I don't trust Labour either, mind you, but many Tories just seem to have no idea what's going on outside of Royal Tunbridge Wells.
Also, it seems that, for many Tories, its all a game - and a jolly fun one - the aim of which is to enjoy oneself immensely while protecting one's own interests and privileges.
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
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quote:
Originally posted by RadicalWhig:
I cannot bring myself to believe for a moment that the Conservatives would do much for anyone who lives north of Oxford and/or makes less than fifty grand a year (except, perhaps, pandering to their fears and prejudices).
I don't trust the Conservative's instincts. I've been to the Home Counties, seen the prosperous Tory towns with their nice gardens. From that perspective, life is pretty swell. All it needs is some fine tuning by the "Natural Party of Government". But I've also been to Carluke, Cumbernauld, Motherwell and Renton, and I know that life is far from swell. I don't trust Labour either, mind you, but many Tories just seem to have no idea what's going on outside of Royal Tunbridge Wells.
.
But those aren't the constituencies where the Conservatives need to pick up votes and seats. And they aren't the voters that Thatcher was succcesful in attracting from Labour in 1979.
They need to win those earning closer to £20,000 in places like: Vale of Clywd, Wirral South, Lancashire West, Carlisle, Barrow & Furness, Tynemouth, Stockton South, Stirling, Edinburgh South, Dumfries & Galloway.
Now I know Stirling isn't Motherwell, but it isn't Tunbridge Wells either. But without those sort of Conservative seat gains the most likely government is a minority Labour administration receiving support from the Lib Dems or the Nationalists.
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
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Yes, Free Jack, that's where they need to win seats (Stirling is my constituency, btw: it was Labour by about 4,800 votes in 2005, but the SNP took the Scottish Parliament seat from Labour in 2007 by about 500 votes). But having won those seats, will their heart and soul still lie in the Home Counties (and the upper-middle class), and can they be counted on to really serve all the the people, even those with funny accents and less than perfect clothes?
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
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Well if they don't, then they will lose those seats again and probably be out of them for another decade after that.
The public level of trust of serving politicians (of all major parties) is not exactly high at the moment. I would have thought that any new MP (of whatever party) is going to be very aware of that. Most new MPs would like to retain their seats.
Obviously a Conservative MP is more likely to have an overall approach to socio-economic policy to the right of a Labour MP on average. But I don't think you can automatically equate that to a Home Counties based philosophy.
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
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quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
Obviously a Conservative MP is more likely to have an overall approach to socio-economic policy to the right of a Labour MP on average. But I don't think you can automatically equate that to a Home Counties based philosophy.
This is true, but they're not all exactly cycle-to-work, hug-a-hoody, X-Factor-inspiring love-muffins either, are they?!
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
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Southern England, and the South East are certainly the Tory heartlands (leastways outside London).
The Tories can't, however, afford to take the locals of those areas for granted in the same way that Labour has done in its traditional heartlands. South West England would turn yellow in a flash. And even though Labour poll third behind the Lib Dems in southern England overall, they can also take a swathe of constituencies.
I get the impression that voters round there aren't used to being ignored, and will use their votes very quickly to indicate their displeasure.
Consequentially, the Tories will remain as they have been for decades - a party of the South East, with a few spin-offs for folks further north and west.
As an aside, it's interesting to compare recent results with those of 1918: the blue areas decrease as one looks away from the South East.
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
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Actually I think they can this time round.
Because most Tories in the South East loathe Brown (and Mandelson and the like) so much, that they would let Cameron change the Tories to the point of national electability, even if they become slightly less important fish in the bigger pond. This time round there have been virtually no high profile defections from Lt. Col. Disgusted (retd.) of Tunbridge Wells to UKIP.
It's a Lancashire-centred election. And even a London one (but not a Surrey or Bucks. one.)
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
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Well there is some active support for tactical voting.
That is always more likely to benefit the liberals, because they are closer to each of the other parties. Together with Nick Clegg's performance on the debate - this may be a very good result for the Lib Dems.
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Think²:
Well there is some active support for tactical voting.
That is always more likely to benefit the liberals, because they are closer to each of the other parties.
But there are some pretty massive differences between the Lib Dems and the other two parties as well. Off the top of my head, a list of distinctive policies includes: Not replacing Trident, the tax on banks' profits, scrapping ID cards and the second phase of biometric passports, serious commitment to electoral reform, a stated desire to be more integrated into the EU and to enter the Euro.
There are a number of things in that list that neither the Tories nor Labour come close to signing up to, and supporters of the two big parties who choose to vote tactically should remember that, especially if the current bump in their poll numbers carries through to the ballot box. A vote for the Lib Dems ought to be a vote for the Lib Dems, but I'm sure they'll take any not the other guy votes they can get!
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
I have just bothered to re-join the labour party - but in my constituency we were third at the last election about 13500 votes behind the tories and 5000 behind the liberals. Realistically, who should I vote for ?
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
:
Like I said, I'm sure the Lib Dems will take whatever votes they can get.
Posted by Touchstone (# 3560) on
:
Apparently two polls in the papers tomorrow will show the libDems neck-and-neck with Labour, with Tories slipping to sub-35%. Clegg has clearly seized the opportunity of the TV debates with both hands - can he now get his bandwagon into overdrive and portray his party as serious contenders for government, or at least equal partners in a coalition?
As has been remarked, their manifesto is pretty radical stuff, somewhat to the left of labour. Is Britain ready to abandon the independent deterent and roll back the Big Brother state? (I for one certainly hope so.) Their economic policies will involve a lot of pain for a lot of people - increasing tax allowances to £10K will only be the sugar on the pill. Will the electorate shrink back when the threatened "scrutiny" from Dave 'n' Gordon occurs? (possibly at the next debate) This previously dull-as-ditchwater election is suddenly starting to look interesting. Clegg obviously understands very well that as the underdog, he has to roll the dice, and this is probably the best chance he will ever have.
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
Oh please be true - the idea of a Tory government in this situation is horrifing.
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
:
I think the Lib Dem poll numbers will likely just be a bump, and that they're going to have to work really hard now that scrutiny of their policies will (rightly) be intensified. I suspect that a lot of marginals which the Lib Dems are fighting will come down to local issues and the individual PPCs as well as impressions of the national parties and it will be very hard to predict how they will go from national polling data.
I would also contend that their manifest is not all that radical. It's just a little more progressive and (dare I say it?!) a little more honest than the other two main parties'.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
Actually I think they can this time round.
Because most Tories in the South East loathe Brown (and Mandelson and the like) so much, that they would let Cameron change the Tories to the point of national electability, even if they become slightly less important fish in the bigger pond. This time round there have been virtually no high profile defections from Lt. Col. Disgusted (retd.) of Tunbridge Wells to UKIP.
It's a Lancashire-centred election. And even a London one (but not a Surrey or Bucks. one.)
On the other hand, on a quick count the following southern Tory constituencies would fall to the Lib Dems if the latter's vote rose by 8% (which current opinion polls suggest is possible): Dorset West (bye bye Letwin), Eastbourne, Guildford, Meon Valley, Totnes, Bournemouth West, Dorset North, Weston-Super-Mare, Wells, Devon Central, Devon West & Torridge, Newbury. This is a reflection of the fact that just about no constituencies in the south return Tories with the super-high majorities that Labour candidates recieve in the Welsh valleys, Liverpool, Newcastle, South Yorkshire and so on. The uncertainty in these constituencies, from a Tory perspective, is increased by the fact that many have a high third-placed Labour vote (of approx 20%) which could be squeezed by the Lib Dems.
I take the point that local issues will, of course, have their place.
Imaginary Friend:-
quote:
I would also contend that their manifest is not all that radical. It's just a little more progressive and (dare I say it?!) a little more honest than the other two main parties'.
I haven't read the Lib Dem manifesto, but I agree that their policies don't strike me as particularly radical. Even their European policy, which the Tories and Labour might expect to make mileage out of, is not particularly pronounced. Regarding the Euro, they make no commitment to join immediately, but only when the time is right - essentially no different from Labour circa 1997 - and even then, only after a referendum.
This will be the last UK election in which I will be entitled to vote, so I will be glad to cast my vote for the Lib Dems one last time.
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
:
The Tory-Lib Dem battle in the South West of England is certainly interesting, but given that it is Labour that starts from government it is second order until Labour loses their majority and largest party status. (The second and third place party nationally taking a few seats off each other where the first place nationally is third locally has no effect on government majority.)
I would guess that they end up being battles in individual constituencies and counties. Probably a few gains on each side. Difficult to judge the swing in the regional context from the rather different national context. (If say the Conservatives and Lib Dems both take 4 points off Labour nationally, then it would have no effect on most of those SW seats on a uniform swing. But they would both take seats off Labour in the North, the Tories in the rural NW, the Lib Dems in the cities - though probably not many.)
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
This is a reflection of the fact that just about no constituencies in the south return Tories with the super-high majorities that Labour candidates recieve in the Welsh valleys, Liverpool, Newcastle, South Yorkshire and so on.
...
This will be the last UK election in which I will be entitled to vote, so I will be glad to cast my vote for the Lib Dems one last time.
Your fact is not a fact. There are plenty of huge majority Conservative seats in the South of England. They talk about monkeys with blue rosettes in Buckinghamshire winning...
I take it you have been out of the country for nearly 20 years then?
Posted by Robert Armin (# 182) on
:
Does anyone know how to apply for a postal vote? For those of us who will be out of the country on May 6th?
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
This is a reflection of the fact that just about no constituencies in the south return Tories with the super-high majorities that Labour candidates recieve in the Welsh valleys, Liverpool, Newcastle, South Yorkshire and so on.
...
This will be the last UK election in which I will be entitled to vote, so I will be glad to cast my vote for the Lib Dems one last time.
Your fact is not a fact. There are plenty of huge majority Conservative seats in the South of England. They talk about monkeys with blue rosettes in Buckinghamshire winning...
You should check the facts before denying them. The Tories don't even hold every Buckinghamshire constituency, and only polled more than 50% in two.
Compare Labour MP's majorities in Liverpool.
quote:
I take it you have been out of the country for nearly 20 years then?
Somewhat less... but it feels like only five weeks.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Robert Armin:
Does anyone know how to apply for a postal vote? For those of us who will be out of the country on May 6th?
Try www.aboutmyvote.co.uk
Hurry up though: I think the deadline is days away.
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
Even [Lib Dem] European policy, which the Tories and Labour might expect to make mileage out of, is not particularly pronounced. Regarding the Euro, they make no commitment to join immediately, but only when the time is right - essentially no different from Labour circa 1997 - and even then, only after a referendum.
What is Labour policy towards the Euro these days?
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
What is Labour policy towards the Euro these days?
Keep quiet and hope it goes away.
Not the Eurozone itself of course, but the suggestion that UK might soon join it. Any Cabinet Minister who seriously planned for joining would probably end up at the bottom of the Humber wearing metaphorical concrete overshoes.
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
You should check the facts before denying them. The Tories don't even hold every Buckinghamshire constituency, and only polled more than 50% in two.
At the last General Election in 2005, the Conservatives won all of the five constituencies in the area of Buckinghamshire County Council, four of them with a majority of over 10,000, three of them with 50%+ votes.
Bucks Facts!
The two Milton Keynes seats were part of the historic county, but are very different in demography now and have a separate unitary council. Though the Conservatives won the more rural MK NE seat last time. That Mr Bercow was subsequently elected Speaker does not change the underlying strength of the Tory party in the county. Neither does boundary change really make much difference either.
I am not saying that Labour aren't slightly stronger numerically in parts of Liverpool but the feeling of safeness is broadly the same.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
You should check the facts before denying them. The Tories don't even hold every Buckinghamshire constituency, and only polled more than 50% in two.
At the last General Election in 2005, the Conservatives won all of the five constituencies in the area of Buckinghamshire County Council, four of them with a majority of over 10,000, three of them with 50%+ votes.
Bucks Facts!
Aylesbury - 49.1
Buckingham - 57.4
Chesham - 54.4
Beaconsfield - 55.4
Wycombe: 45.8
OK, I left out Beaconsfield by mistake (thought it was Berks, mea culpa), but I make that three, not five. So, the Tories don't even poll a majority of votes cast in their heartland.
quote:
The two Milton Keynes seats were part of the historic county, but are very different in demography now and have a separate unitary council. Though the Conservatives won the more rural MK NE seat last time. That Mr Bercow was subsequently elected Speaker does not change the underlying strength of the Tory party in the county. Neither does boundary change really make much difference either.
I see. So the 'true' Buckinghamshire is the bit that votes Tory. Eh? Eh? (nudge)
Milton Keynes North: 39.3 (Tory gain from Labour)
Milton Keynes South West: 35.2 (Labour hold)
quote:
I am not saying that Labour aren't slightly stronger numerically in parts of Liverpool but the feeling of safeness is broadly the same.
Numerical strength is surely the best reflection of safeness. Compare Liverpool:-
Garston: 54.0
Riverside: 57.6
wavertree 52.4
Walton: 72.8
West Derby: 62.8
Note also the low turnout (between 41 and 51%) and the lack of anything like a strong challenge except in Garston and Riverside.
source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/vote_2005/default.stm
Finally, I don't think local election results are a helpful guide. They often buck the trend. The Conservatives, as I recollect, actually polled strongly in 1997, on the very day that they were being wiped out in Parliament.
So I think my basic point (ie, the Tories remain a party of the South East, because if they displease their core vote down there, they lose seats) is a good one. By contrast, in the Labour heartlands I have mentioned, only the Lib Dems were even beginning to emerge as a potential alternative, and even then in precious few seats. In Tory heartlands, voters do turn to Labour or Lib Dem at parliamentary elections. In Labour heartlands, they are far more likely to swing between Labour and stay-at-home. Labour can therefore afford to ignore (and, IMHO has ignored) the voters in those areas.
Consequentially, if the Tories don't make headway against the Lib Dems, and regain at least some of the southern seats that the Lib Dems took off them in 97, 01 and 05, they are in big trouble. They are in bigger trouble if the Lib Dems actually achieve a swing against them in those areas.
(as an aside, I understand that it is the mixture of Lib Dem seats in traditional Tory areas and low turnout in seats that Labour win that makes the constituency system seem so skewed against the Tories right now.)
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
(as an aside, I understand that it is the mixture of Lib Dem seats in traditional Tory areas and low turnout in seats that Labour win that makes the constituency system seem so skewed against the Tories right now.)
Indeed. I saw somewhere (and I can't remember where it was so I'm afraid I can't give you a link) that Labour would probably win the most seats even if nationally their share of the vote was 6 or 7 percentage points behind the Tories. You've got to wonder why the Conservatives aren't more open to PR!
Posted by North East Quine (# 13049) on
:
Originally posted by Radical Whig:
quote:
the BBC and the London-based parties have stitched it up by excluding the SNP from the leaders' debates and by minimising their media coverage.
I think this may be an own goal. Quite a few people I know are sufficiently riled at the exclusion as to be favouring a vote for the S.N.P.
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
I thought the beeb were doing debates with the nationalist party leaders ?
Posted by Ricardus (# 8757) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
Numerical strength is surely the best reflection of safeness. Compare Liverpool:-
Garston: 54.0
Riverside: 57.6
wavertree 52.4
Walton: 72.8
West Derby: 62.8
Note also the low turnout (between 41 and 51%) and the lack of anything like a strong challenge except in Garston and Riverside.
Though this time round the Lib-Dems are making a concerted effort to grab Wavertree. Largely because the current MP is retiring and Labour had the temerity to parachute in a replacement candidate from London - someone who committed the supreme crime of not knowing who Bill Shankly is!
The thing is, Liverpool council has been under Lib-Dem control for years - IIRC Labour got chucked out of Liverpool City Council at the same time as they got into Government - so Scousers are capable of voting for someone else, despite all appearences to the contrary.
[ 18. April 2010, 20:11: Message edited by: Ricardus ]
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
I disagree, because at least you know what you're getting with Brown. For better or worse, his record as Chancellor and PM speaks for itself. There's no reason to think he'd be much different after an election.
Which is every reason to kick him into the long grass...
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by RadicalWhig:
can they be counted on to really serve all the the people, even those with funny accents and less than perfect clothes?
About as much as Labour can, yes.
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by RadicalWhig:
can they be counted on to really serve all the the people, even those with funny accents and less than perfect clothes?
About as much as Labour can, yes.
I.e. Not much?
Posted by Ricardus (# 8757) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
Numerical strength is surely the best reflection of safeness. Compare Liverpool:-
Garston: 54.0
Riverside: 57.6
wavertree 52.4
Walton: 72.8
West Derby: 62.8
Note also the low turnout (between 41 and 51%) and the lack of anything like a strong challenge except in Garston and Riverside.
Following my previous post - it's also worth pointing out that West Derby is held by Bob Wareing, who has since resigned the Labour whip because he thought the New Labour Mafia were picking on him - so in a sense Labour has already lost one Liverpool constituency.
Similarly, the extremely high support in Walton is almost certainly for Peter Kilfoyle rather than Labour per se. As Kilfoyle is standing down in this election, even Walton can't be taken for granted.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by North East Quine:
Originally posted by Radical Whig:
quote:
the BBC and the London-based parties have stitched it up by excluding the SNP from the leaders' debates and by minimising their media coverage.
I think this may be an own goal. Quite a few people I know are sufficiently riled at the exclusion as to be favouring a vote for the S.N.P.
I'm not sure their objections have any merit. The debate was supposed to be between those who intend to form the next government. Obviously the Welsh and Scottish nationalists aren't putting up enough candidates to do that.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
Ricardus,
Your points are well made, and it will be very interesting to see what happens in Liverpool this time round.
Good grief: not knowing who Bill Shankly was. Another example of Labour taking Liverpool for granted?
Posted by Rosa Winkel (# 11424) on
:
Well, the miscarriage of justice that was the trial of (Liverpool fan) Michael Shields was finally put right by Straw, and it was Burnham who pushed forward a (long awaited) inquiry into the Hillsborough disaster, so in some ways the Labour party are doing well for Liverpool.
Posted by Ricardus (# 8757) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Rosa Winkel:
Well, the miscarriage of justice that was the trial of (Liverpool fan) Michael Shields was finally put right by Straw.
Well, there are two possible interpretations of that:
- Michael Shields was genuinely innocent, and Jack Straw through laziness or prejudice let him remain maligned in jail for months and years longer than was necessary, and could only be nudged into action by an unprecedented campaign of support that should never have been necessary - as this article suggests,;
- Michael Shields was as guilty as Hell, but Jack Straw let him out because it was politically expedient to do so (slandering the process the judicial process of an entire country, not to mention the European Court of Human Rights) - as this other article suggests.
I don't want to take sides, but either way it doesn't reflect well on Mr Straw ...
[ 20. April 2010, 19:55: Message edited by: Ricardus ]
Posted by Rosa Winkel (# 11424) on
:
As just as the pardon was (according to, say Human Rights Watch) it was a strange decision, in that Straw referred to new evidence, which possibly was a statement given by the parents to Straw about the Starkey confession. I say strange, because this information was out months before Straw find out about it. I was surprised with the pardon, to tell the truth, as it was unprecedented.
Posted by Ricardus (# 8757) on
:
(Executive summary: Labour stinks, especially in Liverpool.) quote:
Originally posted by Rosa Winkel:
As just as the pardon was (according to, say Human Rights Watch) it was a strange decision, in that Straw referred to new evidence, which possibly was a statement given by the parents to Straw about the Starkey confession. I say strange, because this information was out months before Straw find out about it. I was surprised with the pardon, to tell the truth, as it was unprecedented.
The whole thing stinks, and Straw, Anderson (leader of the Labour group on Liverpool Council) and Ellman and Eagle (local Labour MPs) have made it stinkier.
The Michael Shields campaign bases its case primarily on a confession made by Graham Sankey. This despite the fact that a.) Sankey refused to make his confession in Bulgaria; b.) Sankey's confession did not tally with what happened (source), c.) Sankey retracted his confession afterwards (source), d.) it is alleged that Sankey was intimidated into making the confession (source).
None of Michael Shields' defenders, to my knowledge, have even attempted to address these points. Possibly Anderson, Ellman, and Eagle have some startling evidence that overcomes difficulties a)-d) and thus proves Sankey guilty. Otherwise, they are doing exactly what they get so outraged about the Bulgarian courts doing - viz., accusing an innocent man of thuggery.
If they do have such evidence, then they and Straw should present it to the public. If they have evidence that genuinely clears Shields, and they withhold it, then they leave him permanently under suspicion from bastards like me.
Incidentally, do you have a source for Human Rights Watch's support? Because I can't find anything on their website.
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
quote:
Originally posted by North East Quine:
Originally posted by Radical Whig:
quote:
the BBC and the London-based parties have stitched it up by excluding the SNP from the leaders' debates and by minimising their media coverage.
I think this may be an own goal. Quite a few people I know are sufficiently riled at the exclusion as to be favouring a vote for the S.N.P.
I'm not sure their objections have any merit. The debate was supposed to be between those who intend to form the next government. Obviously the Welsh and Scottish nationalists aren't putting up enough candidates to do that.
The question is not just who is going to govern us, but how we are to be governed, and by what authority. To exclude the SNP and Plaid Cymru is to attempt to bury these more pertinent questions.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
How we are to be governed depends upon who forms the government. Obviously that is not going to be the leader of the Welsh or Scottish nationalists.
If this is so important to them, they should arrange their own leaders' debates in their respective areas. That said, as this is a Westminster, rather than a devolved election, there is no reason even for the Welsh or Scottish media to give them equal coverage as the national (as opposed to nationalist) parties.
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
Meanwhile, the momentum for the Liberal Democrats following Nick Clegg's perceived win in the 'Prime Ministerial debate' led to this comment by former Sun editor David Yelland. Yelland's point is that parts of the media are personally committed to a Conservative Government; they have cultivated strong connections with Conservatives while ignoring the Lib Dems.
If Yelland is right, we would expect to see personal attacks on Nick Clegg in those parts of the media. Is it just a coincidence, then, that the Mail on Sunday printed this attack, all about Clegg's "exotic lineage and cosmopolitan lifestyle [that is] is a world away from his gritty Yorkshire constituency" (is this a similar style of attack to the reported attacks on Senator John Kerry during the 2004 US Presidential election when he was called a 'metrosexual'?)
On a similar theme, there's today's front page shock 'news' in the Sun that Clegg was 'coached' for the TV debate; what next, the breaking news that surgeons are 'trained' for the operations that they do, or that airline pilots have 'learned' how to fly planes?
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
May I point out that Northern Ireland, to a greater extent than Wales or Scotland, has a distinct political identity. Should the leaders of the dominant Unionist and Nationalist political parties be included, along with the leaders of Plaid Cymru and the SNP?
Note that at the moment those parties are the DUP (Democratic Unionists) and Sinn Fein.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
Don't forget Mebyon Kernow.
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alwyn:
...what next, the breaking news that surgeons are 'trained' for the operations that they do, or that airline pilots have 'learned' how to fly planes?
Shhhh it's a secret. Don't tell anyone!
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
Don't forget Mebyon Kernow.
Also from Cornwall:
David Cameron is struck by an egg
I bet the Tories go up in the polls as a result!? In this substance-free campaign one egg could make the difference.
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alwyn:
Meanwhile, the momentum for the Liberal Democrats following Nick Clegg's perceived win in the 'Prime Ministerial debate' led to this comment by former Sun editor David Yelland. Yelland's point is that parts of the media are personally committed to a Conservative Government; they have cultivated strong connections with Conservatives while ignoring the Lib Dems.
The piece by Yelland was very interesting, not just because it partially confirms media bias against the Lib Dems (at least in terms of the amount of coverage given), but also because it illustrates the blurred line between news reporting and commentary. Personally, I would like to see a much clearer distinction between news and opinion, but I know that's not likely to happen.
As for the Mail on Sunday, I think that article says as much about that paper's jingoistic and xenophobic leanings as anything else. Such petty and small-minded criticism is really stupid because in some ways, Clegg's CV shows that he has a lot of relevant experience for political life, especially since Britain's relationship with Europe is likely to be a big issue in the next decade or so. But no: He speaks foreign languages, had the gall to work in Brussels, gave his kids Spanish names and doesn't prostrate himself in front of St George's cross every morning. Disgraceful.
In other news, senior Conservatives are starting to brief against Cameron, and in particular his 'Big Society' idea. To quote (from the article) a senior Tory: quote:
The 'big society' is bollocks. It is boiled vegetables that have been cooked for three minutes too long. It tastes of nothing. What is it?
Excellent question!
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
brief against Cameron, and in particular his 'Big Society' idea. To quote (from the article) a senior Tory: quote:
The 'big society' is bollocks. It is boiled vegetables that have been cooked for three minutes too long. It tastes of nothing. What is it?
Excellent question!
So let me get this straight:
Historical Conservative leader says there's no such thing as society*, and people still bring it up over twenty years later to criticise them.
Modern Conservative leader says not only that there is such a thing as society, but that it should be bigger and more involved in how the country is run, and people criticise them.
Am I missing something here?
.
*= I'm ignoring the fact that that statement was taken out of context and misinterpreted for the purposes of this post.
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
:
Personally, I'm not making a link between 'Big Society' and anything Thatcher said.
The context of the comment quoted is that 'Big Society' is proving to be a tough sell on the doorstep. It's an idea which sounds appealing, but the lack of meat on the bones of the idea makes it hard to picture what the idea means from a practical point of view. If you watch the video at the top of the report I linked to, you'll see some examples of that*.
So my criticism is not with an apparent departure from something a Tory said 25 years ago (as if parties aren't allowed to change their minds!) but that this idea is mere veneer, fluff, and PR. And now that Cameron is in a fight (who would have predicted that even a few weeks ago?) the veneer is cracking as discontentment rises in the Tory ranks.
* In particular, one lady says that the first thing she would do if she could set up her own school is make it exclusively for white children. That is certainly not what Letwin and Cameron were intending with this idea, but it is a nasty unintended consequence. More mundanely, when the journalist tried to explain the idea to people, the main responses were "I don't have time" and "leave it to the professionals". Both fair comments, really.
Posted by Gildas (# 525) on
:
In the latter instance it appears to be members of the Shadow Cabinet who are criticising Mr Cameron. Having an anonymous pop at the leader one's party and his big idea during a General Election campaign might be regarded as an innovative strategy, but not, I think, one which indicates a great deal of confidence in him.
May 6th is almost upon us. Governments in waiting are not supposed to be getting attacks of the jitters at this stage of the game.
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
More mundanely, when the journalist tried to explain the idea to people, the main responses were "I don't have time" and "leave it to the professionals". Both fair comments, really.
It is very much fair comment. Put it like this: would you trust your child's schooling to someone who currently has enough free time to engage in all the complexities of starting up a new school?
I'm busy enough as it is, househusbanding, looking after my two kids, writing, building projects I can't afford to pay other people to do, and in what 'spare time' I do have, I do two afternoons a week at my local primary.
Those with the expertise have volunteered - frankly, a lot of us are already over-committed with community and church stuff. 'Big Society' just seems to be an attempt to get public services done on the cheap by people who are running to stand still.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
'Big Society' just seems to be an attempt to get public services done on the cheap by people who are running to stand still.
You may not have noticed, but the country isn't exactly flush with cash right now. Cuts are inevitable, which means "doing it on the cheap" is inevitable. At least the Conservatives are trying to do something about it that won't require unsustainable tax rises or sums that don't add up.
But part of me thinks that's irrelevant. Part of me thinks that if Labour had come up with exactly the same idea it would have been hailed as a socialist triumph putting vital services back in the hands of the people.
What exactly do you people want? You've spent the last 20 years bitching about the Tories thinking society doesn't exist, then as soon as they ask society to be more prominent it's all "you can't expect society to do that". Make up your bloody minds.
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
:
The big society idea is championed by Philip Blond's respublica movement, which is trying to act as a bridge between the academic world (in which these ideas have been growing and circulating since the 1980s) and the world of party-politics (where Cameron - I think rather cynically and opportunistically - is trying to get on the band-wagon).
"Big society" has been badly communicated and not properly worked through in policy terms. But as set of basic ideas, values, and principles, it has quite a strong (and to my mind attractive) pedigree.
The gist of it is that neither the individualist / contractarian / market-based system, nor the collectivist / bureaucratic / state-based system, works very well. Both neglect the value of fraternity, and both tend squeeze out the communitarian / mutualist / civic-based realm - the realm in which people are integrated with other people in the common and spontaneous organisation of their mutual affairs. The "Big society" seeks to overcome alienation and atomisation by freeing people up to be together - for example, by making it easier to start a community group to deliver a service which is not provided by either the State or the market. It is linked to the idea of the state not merely as a neutral defender of rights, but as an active promoter of public or common goods - albeit delivered indirectly in accordance with the principle of subsidiarity. Other things coming out of the Tories - such as a renewed emphasis on "character" are all part of the same idea, although I'm not sure whether that is communicated very well to most people.
I started to write a paper on this "Red Tory" phenomenon a few months back. I was trying to analyse it in terms of three more well-known ideological categories: Christian Democratic, Civic Republican, and Traditional Toryism. However, it was overtaken by other more urgent (and more directly relevant) projects. I might get back to it after the election, if by then we have some more concrete indications of how it will all pan out. For now, this article sums it up much better than I can.
Posted by leo (# 1458) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
So let me get this straight:
Historical Conservative leader says there's no such thing as society*, and people still bring it up over twenty years later to criticise them.
Modern Conservative leader says not only that there is such a thing as society, but that it should be bigger and more involved in how the country is run, and people criticise them.
Am I missing something here?
Yes - the Tories are still the nasty party.
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
'Big Society' just seems to be an attempt to get public services done on the cheap by people who are running to stand still.
You may not have noticed, but the country isn't exactly flush with cash right now. Cuts are inevitable, which means "doing it on the cheap" is inevitable.
Yes: cuts are inevitable. However, how is creating more schools a response to this?
Furthermore, society already has a perfectly adequate mechanism for training self-motivated members interested in teaching, nursing, social work etc to a level where they are competent and able to discharge their duties in a professional manner.
Which part of teaching, nursing or social work training do you think should be missed out? Or do you just think semi- or untrained people can do the job of a teacher, nurse or social worker?
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by RadicalWhig:
"Big society" ...[snip]
The gist of it is that neither the individualist / contractarian / market-based system, nor the collectivist / bureaucratic / state-based system, works very well. Both neglect the value of fraternity, and both tend squeeze out the communitarian / mutualist / civic-based realm - the realm in which people are integrated with other people in the common and spontaneous organisation of their mutual affairs.
The starting point of Thatcherism, as I remember it, was that the state should not interfere, and that people should take responsibility for their own affairs. I also recollect that this tended to be more true for economic rather than social matters (Thatcher was quite authoritarian re the latter).
I understand Cameron's 'big society' idea to be that local people in local communities should take responsibility for their own affairs and those of each other. How is this different from classic 'roll back the frontiers of the State' Thatcherism?
My recollection is that Thatcherism held that where the State got out, individuals would fill the vacuum. In fact, I don't recollect this happening at a local / civic level. So I wonder how Cameron has any plan for making such a thing happen.
I recognise this 'big society' far more in NZ than the parts of the UK where I grew up. But it is noteworthy that the Government and local councils are quite heavily involved in organising or subsidising such things, ie, the state has a tradition of offering support whilst being very unprescriptive about how local people should use that help. This sounds far more Lib Dem than Tory and I wonder if Cameron would go that far.
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
What exactly do you people want? You've spent the last 20 years bitching about the Tories thinking society doesn't exist, then as soon as they ask society to be more prominent it's all "you can't expect society to do that". Make up your bloody minds.
You seem to be accusing the Conservative's critics of being inconsistent and unfair.
To be fair to David Cameron, he has explained what he means by the Big Society. In his interesting Big Society speech he said:
"I will tell you what I'm going to do, I am going to redouble the positive, I am going to accentuate everything positive we want to bring to this country, I am going to make sure everything we do is about the positive vision we have for the future of our country ..."
Coincidentally, today's Daily Mail headline news:
"Clegg's Nazi slur on Britain"
What was that about being 'consistent' and 'fair'? At least in the US, with its paid-for political TV advertising, when one party goes full-tilt negative, they know that the other side will do the same thing - a kind of Mutually Assured Destruction. Cameron has the right-wing tabloids to go full-tilt negative for him, with no apparent downside.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
If the Daily Mail's attack on Nick Clegg is a "Nazi Slur" then I'm a Dutchman. If you read beyond the two words "Nazi Slur" it's clear that Clegg has stated an outright truth, but an unpalatable one, even an unacceptable one. The ++ABC does the same from time to time.
It's early in a campaign to invoke Godwin's Law - how do you raise the ante from here?
Still, the Tories and their friends in the press are taking Clegg and the Lib Dems seriously now, which will take the heat off Brown and Labour.
Posted by Blue Scarf Menace (# 13051) on
:
Well if anyone is able to recognise a Nazi it's the Daily Mail. What is unusual is that this time they are not gushing with admiration. Perhaps Clegg needs to grow a moustache - it worked for Thatcher.
And isn't Cameron's Big Society just warmed up left overs from Blair's "Stakeholder Economy"? Could someone explain the difference.
[ 22. April 2010, 08:10: Message edited by: Blue Scarf Menace ]
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
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It's pleasing to note that the top-rated comment on that article supports Clegg.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
So let me get this straight:
Historical Conservative leader says there's no such thing as society*, and people still bring it up over twenty years later to criticise them.
Modern Conservative leader says not only that there is such a thing as society, but that it should be bigger and more involved in how the country is run, and people criticise them.
Am I missing something here?
Yes - the Tories are still the nasty party.
So no matter what policies they advocate - even if they're exactly the ones you were screaming for earlier - you'll always hate them? Hmm, there's a word for that...
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
Yes: cuts are inevitable. However, how is creating more schools a response to this?
More privately-run schools = less kids in publically-run ones = more money per child in publically-run ones.
Alternatively, less kids in publically-run schools = less money required.
quote:
Furthermore, society already has a perfectly adequate mechanism for training self-motivated members interested in teaching, nursing, social work etc to a level where they are competent and able to discharge their duties in a professional manner.
Which part of teaching, nursing or social work training do you think should be missed out? Or do you just think semi- or untrained people can do the job of a teacher, nurse or social worker?
As far as I can tell, encouraging people to group together to create new schools doesn't mean they become the teachers, it means they become the governors.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alwyn:
You seem to be accusing the Conservative's critics of being inconsistent and unfair.
Yes, I am. In evidence I offer leo, who has demonstrated amply that such criticism isn't even rooted in policies, but in personal antipathy.
quote:
Cameron has the right-wing tabloids to go full-tilt negative for him, with no apparent downside.
So you're calling Cameron a hypocrite because he says one thing and someone completely unrelated to him does another? Riiight.
Of course, if such comments are to be deemed fair I'll just point out that the Guardian and Mirror do exactly the same thing for Labour.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
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The media, completely unrelated to political parties? Come on, Marvin!
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
More privately-run schools = less kids in publically-run ones = more money per child in publically-run ones.
Alternatively, less kids in publically-run schools = less money required.
I'm willing to be corrected on this, but I was led to believe 'setting up schools' in this context didn't mean private, fee-paying independent schools - of which there are already plenty around to take your money if you wish. Rather, these were to be state-funded Academy-style schools outside the control of the LEA.
quote:
As far as I can tell, encouraging people to group together to create new schools doesn't mean they become the teachers, it means they become the governors.
Don't all state schools already have to have governors? If someone wants to be a school governor, there are plenty of schools to choose from. Some of them don't even have elections to be a governor as there are vacant spaces.
Cameron is promising us something we already have. Clearly putting the con into conservative.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
The media, completely unrelated to political parties? Come on, Marvin!
Unless you're suggesting that Cameron has direct control over the editorial policy of the Mail, you can't suggest that he's being hypocritical by saying he'll focus on the positive then letting the Mail do the attacking for him. He is not responsible for what they publish.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
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I suggest you go away and read Yelland's excellent article in the Grauniad, which confirmed what any intelligent observer has known for years: that political parties do Faustian pacts with the press. It's rather obtuse to assert that the Conservatives, a party that Cameron leads, have no influence over a newspaper's editorial policy.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
I'm willing to be corrected on this, but I was led to believe 'setting up schools' in this context didn't mean private, fee-paying independent schools - of which there are already plenty around to take your money if you wish. Rather, these were to be state-funded Academy-style schools outside the control of the LEA.
It's perfectly possible that I'm mistaken.
quote:
Cameron is promising us something we already have. Clearly putting the con into conservative.
Let's look at what Cameron has actually said on this subject.
quote:
(From the speech linked to earlier):
We'll only get really good schools when we say to families: you've got to get involved with your school, you've got to help back up the teachers, you've got to make sure you bring up your children properly, and also when we break open the monopoly of education and say to the social enterprises, the charities and the churches and the other organisations: come on in. In our Big Society, everyone's welcome. Come on in and set up a great school in the state system so we can get the competition, the choice, the excellence, the diversity that we have in the private system. That's what the Big Society is all about.
So it's a mix of individuals being more involved in schools (through bringing their kids up right, becoming governors, volunteering, etc) and charities becoming involved in schools (by investing in/setting up their own schools).
So yes, it's partly what we have now but - significantly - we aren't using. And it's partly new stuff. Hardly a con though.
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Let's look at what Cameron has actually said on this subject.
quote:
(From the speech linked to earlier):
We'll only get really good schools when we say to families: you've got to get involved with your school, you've got to help back up the teachers, you've got to make sure you bring up your children properly, and also when we break open the monopoly of education and say to the social enterprises, the charities and the churches and the other organisations: come on in. In our Big Society, everyone's welcome. Come on in and set up a great school in the state system so we can get the competition, the choice, the excellence, the diversity that we have in the private system. That's what the Big Society is all about.
So it's a mix of individuals being more involved in schools (through bringing their kids up right, becoming governors, volunteering, etc) and charities becoming involved in schools (by investing in/setting up their own schools).
So yes, it's partly what we have now but - significantly - we aren't using. And it's partly new stuff. Hardly a con though.
So, yes. You are mistaken.
All the opportunities are already there. Those who are committed to these things are already over-committed. Those who couldn't give a toss still won't give a toss.
What would actually make a difference would be for employers to allow employees to use a set number of hours each month to help run community projects, work in schools, visit hospitals and care homes, clear rivers and waste ground - and still receive their wage. Motivated people don't lack commitment. They lack time. Unless Cameron is proposing a 30 hour day in some massive geoengineering project, his proposal is just hot air.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
More privately-run schools = less kids in publically-run ones = more money per child in publically-run ones.
Alternatively, less kids in publically-run schools = less money required.
I'm willing to be corrected on this, but I was led to believe 'setting up schools' in this context didn't mean private, fee-paying independent schools - of which there are already plenty around to take your money if you wish. Rather, these were to be state-funded Academy-style schools outside the control of the LEA.
quote:
As far as I can tell, encouraging people to group together to create new schools doesn't mean they become the teachers, it means they become the governors.
Don't all state schools already have to have governors? If someone wants to be a school governor, there are plenty of schools to choose from. Some of them don't even have elections to be a governor as there are vacant spaces.
Cameron is promising us something we already have. Clearly putting the con into conservative.
Hmm, Academies and governors: a bit of an issue to put it mildly.
Back in the bad old days before Local Management of Schools, too many governors were appointed by the LEAs. Now there are some staff governors (including the Head), the LEA appoint some, some are elected by parents and there are community governors appointed (or more often cajoled into it) by the existing governors. The proportions maintain a balance although it can cause tensions as no "group" has a majority.
The terms of reference for Governance of Academies for a couple I have looked at appear to emphasise the role of Sponsor Governors and those appointed by the LEA. The role of parents, the community and staff seems to have been reduced and I'll go for almost anything which reverses the corporatist trend that the governance of academies appears to represent.
If there are any teachers out there with experience of academy governance, please let me know: I'm looking from the outside but I don't like it.
[a wee bit of x-posting there . . .]
[ 22. April 2010, 10:39: Message edited by: Sioni Sais ]
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
So, yes. You are mistaken.
It would seem so.
quote:
All the opportunities are already there. Those who are committed to these things are already over-committed. Those who couldn't give a toss still won't give a toss.
Maybe there are a large number of people in the middle of those two categories - it's not just "over committed" or "couldn't give a toss". Maybe there are those who don't know the opportunities are there - I certainly wasn't aware that I could directly influence my local school's policies. Maybe, just maybe, he's trying to get a few of the couldn't-give-a-tossers to start giving a toss after all.
What's so wrong with trying to encourage increased participation by the public? Is it better that they all sit back with their McDonalds and their PlayStations and let the State take care of everything?
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
I feel like creating a parallel to the Phelpsian thread for the foaming-at-the-mouth ramblings of the BNP but their unauthorised use of the Marmite and the slug's subsequent statement that it was a "spoof" shows their level of sophisticatication.
It's on a par with their use of a stock photograph of a Spitfire illustrating the BNP "Fighting the Battle for Britain". The plane was part of 303 squadron of the RAF, which was almost entirely Polish.
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Unless you're suggesting that Cameron has direct control over the editorial policy of the Mail, you can't suggest that he's being hypocritical by saying he'll focus on the positive then letting the Mail do the attacking for him. He is not responsible for what they publish.
You have a point. You're right, I imagine, that Cameron didn't personally write today's Mail headline.
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
So you're calling Cameron a hypocrite because he says one thing and someone completely unrelated to him does another? Riiight.
However, when you suggested that Cameron is "completely unrelated" to the Mail's attacks on his political opponents, you seem to over-state your case.
Is it accurate to say that Mr Cameron is "completely unrelated" to right-wing journalists? There are strong connections between the Conservatives and the right-wing media - connections that are intentionally fostered by both sides, as David Yelland's piece makes clear. Who knows more about tabloid connections with the Conservatives - you or a former editor of the Sun?
When Mr Cameron became party leader, his office team discussed the idea of hiring someone to "liaise with opinion formers - editors, comment editors and columnists ... Cameron [and others ... ] set about finding a suitable candidate" (source: Francis Elliott & James Hanning "Cameron: The Rise of the New Conservative" (Harper Perennial, 2009) p. 312. Who did Cameron and others ask to work for the Conservatives, liaising with the media? They included Trevor Kavanagh (editor, Sun] and Sarah Sands (who declined the job to take a job with the Daily Mail) (source: Elliott & Hanning 2009, p. 312). Who did they appoint for the role? Andy Coulson (previously editor of the News of the World), whose current job is Mr Cameron's director of communications.
It seems difficult to defend the view that that Mr Cameron is "completely unrelated" to the right-wing tabloid media.
You're probably right that Labour have links to left-wing journalists too. However, my point about fairness was about the Lib Dems. The Conservatives have several tabloids willing to go full-tilt negative for them - the Lib Dems don't.
Posted by St. Punk the Pious (# 683) on
:
Clegg is such an Israel-bashing anti-semite prat, he deserves to be called a Nazi.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
The people on this thread (and there are a few of you) who seem to think that David Cameron personally controls the content of the Daily Mail seem to overlook the fact that Paul Dacre, the Editor of the Daily Mail, has been very chummy with Gordon Brown of late. Indeed he said in 2007 that the Conservatives cannot be guaranteed the paper's support in the 2010 election. Not sure if that is quite still the case.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alwyn:
Is it accurate to say that Mr Cameron is "completely unrelated" to right-wing journalists? There are strong connections between the Conservatives and the right-wing media - connections that are intentionally fostered by both sides, as David Yelland's piece makes clear. Who knows more about tabloid connections with the Conservatives - you or a former editor of the Sun?
That piece makes it emphatically clear that the papers court the parties in order to gain an influence. What it does not say is that the parties court the papers in the same way.
So the Mail (and others) may well be going on the offensive because they want Cameron to win, and to feel a sense of gratitude towards them for helping him to do so. But that still doesn't make Cameron himself, or the Conservative party, liable for anything they print.
Posted by leo (# 1458) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by St. Punk the Pious:
Clegg is such an Israel-bashing anti-semite prat, he deserves to be called a Nazi.
There are many Jews who criticise the State of Israel. Are they Nazis too?
Posted by St. Punk the Pious (# 683) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
quote:
Originally posted by St. Punk the Pious:
Clegg is such an Israel-bashing anti-semite prat, he deserves to be called a Nazi.
There are many Jews who criticise the State of Israel. Are they Nazis too?
Among other things, Clegg talks of Israel "imprisoning" the Palestinians. That rubbish goes beyond criticism.
Someone needs to tell him he's not the BNP leader.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by St. Punk the Pious:
Clegg is such an Israel-bashing anti-semite prat, he deserves to be called a Nazi.
I think Nick Clegg may have suggested that the Merkava tank (70 tons plus, 100mm gun, 2 machine guns and room for a six man snatch squad) is a rather excessive police car. He may also have had something to say about land grabs and restricting the water supply to one of the most crowded places on earth.
btw, most Arabs are Semites too, but don't let that worry you.
Posted by leo (# 1458) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Yes - the Tories are still the nasty party. [/qb][/QUOTE]So no matter what policies they advocate - even if they're exactly the ones you were screaming for earlier - you'll always hate them? Hmm, there's a word for that... [/QB][/QUOTE]
Yes - the word is insight.
Whatever they say about their new idea, they are going to allow people to take over schools without any prior experience - so fundamentalist creationists can indoctrinate children.
They want to encourage local volunteering with no conception of the cost of CRB checks for all of them
They want to give 3 per week to married/civilly partnered couples, thus penalising unmarried mothers/fathers.
They want to make swinging cuts which will lead us back to thatcher's 198s with high unemployment and double-dip recession.
They claim to be enlightened about lesbians and gays yet some of their senior spokespeople have said that the age of consent is too low, that gays spread HIV and that their lives are more dangerous than those on the front line in the army, that B&Bs should be allowed to discriminate. There is a brilliant videoclip of Cameron asking people to stop filming during an interview because he was completely flawed and unable to discuss this issue.
They are misleading people over the availability of cancer drugs.
They support Israeli expansion into Palestinian territory.
They want to build more roads instead of investigating in public transport.
Despite claiming to be green, they never mention wind turbines and the like: vote blue, screw green.
When they were campaigning against the Liberal Democrat Susan Kramer, they were repeatedly told to emphasize she was an “outsider” and a “foreigner.” Horne asked what it meant, and he was told: “She’s a Jewess, but we aren’t allowed to say that… So all we can say is that she got off the train from Hungary.”
Ian Oakley, who was selected to be Tory candidate for Watford, bragged: “Last year it was all green this, and all green that… all that bollocks. People just want lots and lots and lots of cheap petrol. And we are going to give it to them.” He then boasted that he planned to make many trips to Israel where he would take a machine gun and a flame-thrower to destroy Palestinian villages.
When Joanne Cash – a pregnant woman – was imposed on the constituency of Westminster North, there was a rebellion by the local party that forced Cash to resign. They said she wouldn’t be able to have a child and work at the same time. The local party agent Jonathan Fraser-Howells was reported as having commented: "It makes me sick seeing pregnant stomachs around".
If all that isn't nasty, what is?
Posted by Carys (# 78) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
May I point out that Northern Ireland, to a greater extent than Wales or Scotland, has a distinct political identity. Should the leaders of the dominant Unionist and Nationalist political parties be included, along with the leaders of Plaid Cymru and the SNP?
Note that at the moment those parties are the DUP (Democratic Unionists) and Sinn Fein.
No, because the situation in NI is so different that the debate is basically completely irrelevant there. There are no LibDems or Labour candidates in Northern Ireland and the Tories are only there by being in an electoral pact with the UUP.
The danger is that Plaid's exclusion from the debate will cost seats -- specifically Ceredigion. LibDems took it in 2005 with a 219 majority. Currently spike of LibDem support following the ITV debate gives them an unfair advantage in that constituency.
Added to which the UK debates are in many ways English debates. The ITV one had the theme of domestic affairs, many of which are devolved, but unfortunately most non-anoraks don't know this. But liking the LibDems manifesto promises on education is fine for a Welsh person, but they don't actually apply to schools in Wales.
Carys
[ 22. April 2010, 14:59: Message edited by: Carys ]
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
They want to encourage local volunteering with no conception of the cost of CRB checks for all of them
So the most expensive part of setting up a school or community organisation is complying with CRB checks? I wouldn't have thought so.
quote:
They want to give 3 per week to married/civilly partnered couples, thus penalising unmarried mothers/fathers.
The unmarried won't be penalised - they will be no worse off than they are now.
quote:
They want to make swinging cuts which will lead us back to thatcher's 198s with high unemployment and double-dip recession.
It may have escaped your attention, but all three parties are talking about massive cuts. (It was Clegg, I think, who used the word 'swingeing').
quote:
They claim to be enlightened about lesbians and gays yet some of their senior spokespeople have said that the age of consent is too low, that gays spread HIV and that their lives are more dangerous than those on the front line in the army, that B&Bs should be allowed to discriminate. There is a brilliant videoclip of Cameron asking people to stop filming during an interview because he was completely flawed and unable to discuss this issue.
If the Tories are returned to power at the next election with a small majority, they will have the largest number of openly gay and lesbian MPs in a single UK parliamentary party, ever.
In the Gay Times interview, to which you refer, Mr Cameron asked for filming to be stopped because he was giving a print interview and a TV interview at the same time. As I understand it, the two really progress in different ways and doing both at the same time is difficult.
His stumbling came when he was asked about a Lithuanian law on teaching in schools. I would suggest that this measure isn't really at the top of any British voter's agenda.
quote:
They are misleading people over the availability of cancer drugs.
Are they? In any event, not as bad as the 'vote Labour or you'll die of cancer' leaflet I got through my letterbox.
quote:
They support Israeli expansion into Palestinian territory.
I think the Kool Aid is really working now.
quote:
They want to build more roads instead of investigating in public transport.
Is building roads an intrinsically bad thing?
quote:
Despite claiming to be green, they never mention wind turbines and the like: vote blue, screw green.
Aren't a lot of turbines useless? I would've thought a good way to reduce carbon would be to build a couple of nuclear power stations, although I have to say I don't know whether the Tories plan to do this.
quote:
When they were campaigning against the Liberal Democrat Susan Kramer, they were repeatedly told to emphasize she was an “outsider” and a “foreigner.” Horne asked what it meant, and he was told: “She’s a Jewess, but we aren’t allowed to say that… So all we can say is that she got off the train from Hungary.”
You seem to be quoting some grass-roots activists here. Some nutters can be found in the grass-roots of all parties.
At least the Tory candidates in Richmond Park haven't launched a 'Save Our Hospital' campaign for a hospital that isn't under the threat of closure, unlike, er, Susan Kramer.
quote:
Ian Oakley, who was selected to be Tory candidate for Watford, bragged: “Last year it was all green this, and all green that… all that bollocks. People just want lots and lots and lots of cheap petrol. And we are going to give it to them.” He then boasted that he planned to make many trips to Israel where he would take a machine gun and a flame-thrower to destroy Palestinian villages.
Ian Oakley isn't the candidate for Watford any more. He is, admittedly, a very odd and twisted guy.
quote:
When Joanne Cash – a pregnant woman – was imposed on the constituency of Westminster North, there was a rebellion by the local party that forced Cash to resign. They said she wouldn’t be able to have a child and work at the same time. The local party agent Jonathan Fraser-Howells was reported as having commented: "It makes me sick seeing pregnant stomachs around".
Again, one person's view doesn't represent the entire Westminster North Conservative Association's view.
quote:
If all that isn't nasty, what is?
To be honest, none of this beats the Rose Addis story.
Posted by Spawn (# 4867) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alwyn:
However, when you suggested that Cameron is "completely unrelated" to the Mail's attacks on his political opponents, you seem to over-state your case.
No Marvin the Martian is entirely correct. Of course, there are relationships between the parties and the press - formal and informal. These cut across political divides. The idea that the headlines in the Daily Mail and the Telegraph today had anything to do with the Tory party is ridiculous though. If anyone found out that the Tories had commissioned/suggested such attacks they'd be finished. But the default relationship between politicians and journalists is edgy and difficult. Furthermore, there is a real divide on the right between the old guard and the modernisers - relationships between the Cameron/Osborne axis and the Mail/Express/Telegraph are not currently at their best.
It strikes me that right-wing newspapers are independently dismayed about the lib-dem surge. They would rather a Tory government than any other, even a Cameron one. So they've gone on the attack.
Furthermore, Clegg was due such a campaign. Every other prominent politician is scrutinised in the same way with remarks from the past revisited and they've had their expenses and career examined in much detail. The Telegraph story was quite legitimate and routine - I haven't seen the Express, or Daily Mail.
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Spawn:
... If anyone found out that the Tories had commissioned/suggested such attacks they'd be finished.
Really? When Alastair Campbell explained how he manipulated the media for New Labour in The Blair Years, the Labour Party weren't 'finished.'
Wouldn't the Conservatives just say that they were 'shocked, shocked to find that there was spin-doctoring going on in this election!' Or they might say that sowing good news for your side and bad news for the other side is part of a spin-doctor's job description.
Surely Mr Cameron understands that. As a rising star at Conservative Central Office, he told a reporter from the Sunday Telegraph that he was "in charge of stories" at Conservative Central Office (Elliott & Hanning 2009, p. 91)
Posted by Spawn (# 4867) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alwyn:
Really? When Alastair Campbell explained how he manipulated the media for New Labour in The Blair Years, the Labour Party weren't 'finished.'
You really are naive aren't you? You pick up only one of the points I made (and probably the weakest) and come back to me on that basis. The fact is that Alistair Campbell didn't do a very good job of manipulating the media because we all knew about it - the newspapers openly complained and bitched about him ad nauseam for years. This sort of point is elementary. Anyway who tries to manipulate gets their hands burned.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Spawn:
quote:
Originally posted by Alwyn:
Really? When Alastair Campbell explained how he manipulated the media for New Labour in The Blair Years, the Labour Party weren't 'finished.'
You really are naive aren't you? You pick up only one of the points I made (and probably the weakest) and come back to me on that basis. The fact is that Alistair Campbell didn't do a very good job of manipulating the media because we all knew about it - the newspapers openly complained and bitched about him ad nauseam for years. This sort of point is elementary. Anyway who tries to manipulate gets their hands burned.
Quite. How true. One must learn to persuade, or influence.
Posted by IconiumBound (# 754) on
:
As an interested lurker on this thread, I have skimmed the replies looking for trends and hoping I might see things that were opposite of the US campaign charges, counter-charges and nastiness.
So far, I havent seen much that would suggest reasonableness so I must apologise for having let our colonial attitudes infect the UK.
Posted by Spawn (# 4867) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by IconiumBound:
As an interested lurker on this thread, I have skimmed the replies looking for trends and hoping I might see things that were opposite of the US campaign charges, counter-charges and nastiness.
So far, I havent seen much that would suggest reasonableness so I must apologise for having let our colonial attitudes infect the UK.
Oh yeah, the US invented politics? You might be able to take responsibility for some things, but the Old World gave you bloody-minded, violent, boring and pathetic politics.
Posted by leo (# 1458) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
In the Gay Times interview, to which you refer, Mr Cameron asked for filming to be stopped because he was giving a print interview and a TV interview at the same time. .....You seem to be quoting some grass-roots activists here. Some nutters can be found in the grass-roots of all parties.
1. Have you seen the video clip or read the interview? He was, still on camera, completely ignorant of some of the issues raised in the questions and that is why he stopped - he said he was stopping in order to get more info., not because of any other engagement.
As for 'nutters' - they are the people who are the backbone of the party, who do all the work. Theirs are the attitudes held by most Tory supporters, regardless of how far Cameron tries to whitewash them out.
That is why I believe the Tories are the nasty party.
If they get into power, I shall be proved right. However, I sincerely pray - yes pray - that they won't be returned to form a government. That way will lie disaster for this country and, more imporantly, for Christian values.
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
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quote:
Originally posted by leo:
]Yes - the Tories are still the nasty party.
But with a lot more votes than five years ago.
Posted by Sleepwalker (# 15343) on
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quote:
Originally posted by leo:
That is why I believe the Tories are the nasty party.
I don't understand why you think the Tories are the 'nasty party'. Is it something to do with gay people? (I base that on what you refer to in the post I've quoted from)
As for Cameron's ideas on education: I rather like them. I'm not sure there would be many third sector organisations able to turn back the clock and establish schools but if the opportunity for them to do so is there then that is a good thing IMO.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
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quote:
Originally posted by leo:
1. Have you seen the video clip or read the interview? He was, still on camera, completely ignorant of some of the issues raised in the questions and that is why he stopped - he said he was stopping in order to get more info., not because of any other engagement.
Yes, I have seen the video. I didn't say that he had another engagement. What I mean to say is that the way in which one behaves in a print interview is not the same way in which one behaves in a TV interview. DC was being asked to do both at the same time and he was uncomfortable with that. I don't think that was entirely unreasonable.
He struggled to answer a question about free votes, because he wanted to craft a precise answer, and he struggled to answer a question about some Lithuanian legislation because he didn't have the information / facts to hand. As I've said before, I don't really think that the internal politics of Lithuania should be a priority for HM Leader of the Opposition or is a priority for any British voters.
quote:
As for 'nutters' - they are the people who are the backbone of the party, who do all the work. Theirs are the attitudes held by most Tory supporters, regardless of how far Cameron tries to whitewash them out.
The grassroots of all parties contain the occasional nutter but I don't think that you can say that they are representative or will in any influence how a government behaves. It's like saying that a Liberal Democrat administration would result in compulsory sandal-wearing, pornography for 16 year olds and marijuana for all.
quote:
However, I sincerely pray - yes pray - that they won't be returned to form a government. That way will lie disaster for this country and, more imporantly, for Christian values.
Wow. I don't know to respond to this silly bile.
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
he struggled to answer a question about some Lithuanian legislation because he didn't have the information / facts to hand.
That's absolutely not true! He struggled to answer that question because it involved directly contradicting something that he had just said! His pretend policy in Westminster was in direct opposition to his actual policy in Strasbourg. When the interviewer showed this, Cameron was unable to get out of the hole he'd dug himself and terminated the interview.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
That's absolutely not true! He struggled to answer that question because it involved directly contradicting something that he had just said! His pretend policy in Westminster was in direct opposition to his actual policy in Strasbourg. When the interviewer showed this, Cameron was unable to get out of the hole he'd dug himself and terminated the interview.
That's not the case at all.
Here is the video of the interview. The first part (from the beginning to about 2:24) deals with the Lithuania question. He basically says that he doesn't whip or have any day-to-day control over what his MEPs do and therefore is unaware of this Lithuanian law. As I say, it's unlikely to be a priority for British voters and it's very unlikely to be a priority for HM Leader of the Opposition.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Carys:
[QUOTE]
The danger is that Plaid's exclusion from the debate will cost seats -- specifically Ceredigion. LibDems took it in 2005 with a 219 majority. Currently spike of LibDem support following the ITV debate gives them an unfair advantage in that constituency.
How is that any more unfair to Plaid Cymru than to, for example, UKIP or the Greens who, unlike Plaid Cymru, are standing candidates across the country?
Also, it occurs to me that perhaps many voters in Wales who would vote PC for Welsh Assembly elections vote Lib Dems for Westminster as the latter will have far more clout, rather than because of a televised debate. This would reflect what has already happened in Scotland.
quote:
Added to which the UK debates are in many ways English debates. The ITV one had the theme of domestic affairs, many of which are devolved, but unfortunately most non-anoraks don't know this. But liking the LibDems manifesto promises on education is fine for a Welsh person, but they don't actually apply to schools in Wales.
I'm not quite sure what your objection is here. Are you suggesting that matters concerning England only should be excluded from the debate?
It's worth adding that the Welsh Assembly (and for that matter the Scottish Parliament) are the creations of the Westminster Parliament, which can add to, subtract from, or override their powers. Therefore, whoever gets control of it is surely relevant to voters outside England.
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
It's worth adding that the Welsh Assembly (and for that matter the Scottish Parliament) are the creations of the Westminster Parliament, which can add to, subtract from, or override their powers. Therefore, whoever gets control of it is surely relevant to voters outside England.
I said earlier on this thread that this election is not about just "Who governs us", but "how we are governed" and "by what authority".
The last two of these questions depend, to a large extent, on the structure of government. You might not get this, but it matters to many of us. We don't want this party or that party ruling us from Westminster and Whitehall through the creaking mechanisms of the Hanoverian State. We either want to remake the British State from top-to-bottom (LibDem policy - or at least it always used to be) or to get out of the British State altogether and create our own (SNP and Plaid Cymru policy*).
You dodged that one, as if structure was a given or a fixity and the only question was how those entrusted with the management of the Hanoverian State would use their authority. Now you are saying that the outcome of the election will determine the structure, because devolution gives no guarantee against the wiles of the Westminster Parliament (Well done, have a biscuit, this is exactly what we've been saying all along).
But then you go on to imply that this is a matter for the majority in the Westminster Parliament to decide. No. This is a matter for the people of Scotland and Wales to decide. Y Basta. This is actually a contest between two visions of sovereignty: does sovereignty rest in the Crown-in-(Westminster) Parliament, as the two main London-based parties and the common lawyers believe, or does it rest in the people of each of these nations? As Lord North and George I discovered in 1776, this is a revolutionary question, which the British State does not know how to answer, except through force, fraud, and coercion.
Of course, the two major UK parties are trying to prevent these fundamental issues from arising, but ultimately they will not go away. What authority does a UK Government have in Scotland, if only a minority of Scots have voted for it, and if the structure of authority upon which it rests has never been subject to a fair electoral test? These are hypothetical and rather abstract questions now, but just wait until the cuts start - then you'll see.
Now, if, as you rightly say, Westminster has the power to change the devolution arrangement, and, indeed, to overrule the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly on any matter, then surely it is even more necessary that the SNP and Plaid Cymru be given a fair electoral hearing in the debates, and be allowed to put across their view that this arrangement is unacceptable.
You can't have it both ways.
* (Plaid might be a bit more lukewarm about full independence than the SNP is, but as I understand it independence within the EU is their eventual aim - or at least, they wouldn't object to it).
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
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Radicalwhig,
I will restate the primary issues here, because I fear that much of what you say is (unintentionally, I'm sure) quite irrelevant.
This is a leaders' debate, ie, it is between those who might form a government based upon a Parliamentary majority. The leaders of the parties standing can be divided into two categories. In the first category, we have the Tories, Labour, the Liberal Democrats, UKIP, the BNP and the Greens. All these parties are, to my knowledge, standing sufficient candidates to win a majority of seats. The essential difference between the former three and the latter three is the likelyhood of winning that majority.
In the second category, we have the Welsh and Scottish nationalists, and Mebyon Kernow, and perhaps Peter Law and the bloke from Kidderminster. It is not possible for their parties to win a majority because they have not stood sufficient candidates to achieve one.
Now, I am aware that I have laboured the point somewhat, but I think once it is clear, the fallacies in your argument become more obvious. First you say 'we' (whoever that may be) don't want 'this party or that party ruling us from Westminster'. Until and unless Scotland and Wales leave the Union, that is precisely what will happen. I was not stating a preference so much as a fact. Then you say that 'we' want to remake the British state or get out of it. Once again, that is besides the point.
Behind the rhetoric, what I understand you to maintain is that whoever wins the election should a mandate in Scotland or Wales to govern those places, and therefore the Welsh and Scottish nationalists need to be heard at a UK-wide level. As a matter of law, that is certainly false: a majority of Westminster seats is all that counts. As you have represented yourself to have a legal training I assume you know this. Where a party wins a majority of seats or votes is no more relevant to Scotland than the South East. As a matter of politics, it remains false for the same reason: this is a UK-wide election, and the mandate comes from the UK as a whole: it is no more appropriate for parts of the UK to hold the rest to ransom than it is for smaller parties to do the same to larger parties.
Now, I know this leads to the nationalist argument that England is so big that Scotland and Wales get ignored. Whether or not this is more true than for any other part of the UK is a matter of much debate, and not one I propose to address. Let us assume it is true. The solution is to advocate leaving it, as the SNP propose. Once again, however, the SNP, Plaid Cymru (and Mebyon Kernow) have ruled this out of being a relevant issue for the leaders' debate because they cannot form a government at Westminster that will achieve it. This would have been different had the Welsh and Scottish nationalists allied themselves with an English equivalent. However, they haven't, and that is an end of it.
As you might recall from my previous posts I have no particular liking for nationalist parties because I have no liking for nationalism. But that is quite clearly not my logic here. You might well be correct that the best deal for Scotland, and the most democratically legitimate outcome for Scotland is independence. That does not detract from the point that this debate was between the leaders who are at least capable of forming a government at Westminster. I really don't see how this is having anything both ways, and I would appreciate if you could explain that point without hyperbole.
The reality behind the objections is the SNP and Plaid Cymru claim to be the only parties 'speaking' for scotland and Wales respectively. I'm sure that by their own standards that claim is true. Unfortunately for them, that is not the standard that counts.
Posted by Sober Preacher's Kid (# 12699) on
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Point of Interest:
The Bloc Quebecois, the separatist Quebec-based party at the federal level in Canada has always participated in federal leader's debates here in Canada since it became a political factor in the 1993 Federal General Election. It only fields candidates in the 75 Quebec ridings, as opposed to the Liberals, Tories and NDP which field 308 candidates, one for every riding in the country.
There are always English and French language debates, and the Bloc leaders have always treated the English debate as a bit of a joke.
As we are now on our third minority government or hung parliament in a row, they do have significant influence since the Liberals, NDP and the Bloc can pass a bill by voting with the governing Tories.
Plus if anyone is annoyed by the SNP's rhetoric, please be aware that it appears to have been copied verbatim from the Bloc/Parti Quebecois here in Canada. It's just as silly in French as it is in English.
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
I will restate the primary issues here, because I fear that much of what you say is (unintentionally, I'm sure) quite irrelevant.
I will do the same, by responding point-by-point, as I fear that much of what I say is (unintentionally, I'm sure) being ignored, sidelined, and misunderstood.
quote:
This is a leaders' debate,
Err, no. It was going to be a leaders' debate - for party leaders - and then, when they realised that there were other parties with leaders besides the three "main" London-based parties, they changed the name to a "Prime Ministerial Debate".
quote:
ie, it is between those who might form a government based upon a Parliamentary majority.
We are talking here about a UK Government based on a majority in the UK House of Commons (remember, the word Parliament no longer has just one meaning). As long as that is the case, and as long as we remain in the UK, the views of those of us in the 20% of the UK which is not England, ought to be fairly heard and represented.
quote:
The leaders of the parties standing can be divided into two categories. In the first category, we have the Tories, Labour, the Liberal Democrats, UKIP, the BNP and the Greens. All these parties are, to my knowledge, standing sufficient candidates to win a majority of seats. The essential difference between the former three and the latter three is the likelyhood of winning that majority.
In the second category, we have the Welsh and Scottish nationalists, and Mebyon Kernow, and perhaps Peter Law and the bloke from Kidderminster. It is not possible for their parties to win a majority because they have not stood sufficient candidates to achieve one.
This shows the inability of the devolved system to deal with its own inconsistencies. In the UK as a wgike, the three big parties are Lab/Con/LibDem. But in Scotland, the two big parties are Lab/SNP, with Con/LibDem in the second rung, and then the Greens etc. The fact is that different parts of the UK have developed their own party-systems, and one-size does not fit all. This being a UK-wide election doesn't change that. If all parts of the UK are to elect representatives, the debates must fairly reflect the principal parties in each part. Otherwise it does come across as a bit of a stitch-up by the London-based parties.
quote:
Now, I am aware that I have laboured the point somewhat, but I think once it is clear, the fallacies in your argument become more obvious. First you say 'we' (whoever that may be) don't want 'this party or that party ruling us from Westminster'.
See the signature for a clue what "We" might mean. And there are quite a few of us - perhaps not a majority in Scotland, but a fairly big minority - who question not just who wins, or who should win, but the fairness, adequacy, and legitimacy, of the whole "Hanoverian" system. Gordon Brown was one of them, back in 1989 when he signed the Scottish Claim of Right, which proclaimed "the sovereign right of the Scottish people to determine the form of government best suited to their needs".
quote:
Until and unless Scotland and Wales leave the Union, that is precisely what will happen. I was not stating a preference so much as a fact. Then you say that 'we' want to remake the British state or get out of it. Once again, that is besides the point.
No, it's very much on the point. This is the point that needs to get a fair hearing.
quote:
Behind the rhetoric, what I understand you to maintain is that whoever wins the election should a mandate in Scotland or Wales to govern those places, and therefore the Welsh and Scottish nationalists need to be heard at a UK-wide level.
That's exactly what I'm a saying.
quote:
As a matter of law, that is certainly false: a majority of Westminster seats is all that counts.
Correct. That's what I'm objecting to. Do you get it now?
quote:
As you have represented yourself to have a legal training I assume you know this.
I'm not a lawyer. I'm a political scientist specialising in the comparative study of Constitutions. (Sometimes this means I have to pick English lawyers out of my teeth, as most of them wouldn't recognise a good Constitution if it fell on their head.)
quote:
Where a party wins a majority of seats or votes is no more relevant to Scotland than the South East. As a matter of politics, it remains false for the same reason: this is a UK-wide election, and the mandate comes from the UK as a whole: it is no more appropriate for parts of the UK to hold the rest to ransom than it is for smaller parties to do the same to larger parties.
(i) If by "holding to ransom" you mean extracting concessions, then it is perfectly legitimate - this is a UK Parliament, remember - and we are in the UK, remember - so we get to play by your silly UK rules - and that means we can kick up a fuss if we want to.
(ii) If by "holding to ransom" you mean leaving the UK, then I don't see how that infringes the legitimate interests of anyone else.
quote:
Now, I know this leads to the nationalist argument that England is so big that Scotland and Wales get ignored. Whether or not this is more true than for any other part of the UK is a matter of much debate, and not one I propose to address.
I tend to think of this as a peoples-vs-Crown issue, rather than an English-vs-Scottish/Welsh issue. It's not just about the size of England compared to the other parts of the UK. It's also about how the UK structures its decision-making processes so that Whitehall/Metropolitan/City interests are always dominant.
quote:
Let us assume it is true. The solution is to advocate leaving it, as the SNP propose.
Yes.
quote:
Once again, however, the SNP, Plaid Cymru (and Mebyon Kernow) have ruled this out of being a relevant issue for the leaders' debate because they cannot form a government at Westminster that will achieve it. This would have been different had the Welsh and Scottish nationalists allied themselves with an English equivalent. However, they haven't,
By your argument, the SNP can't get independence for Scotland unless they can first win a majority in the UK Parliament by winning lots of English seats. That's the best catch-22 yet.
quote:
and that is an end of it.
It's not even a start.
quote:
As you might recall from my previous posts I have no particular liking for nationalist parties because I have no liking for nationalism.
Well, I don't know what you mean by "nationalism" (which is a pretty big and varied concept), but I'm not much of a nationalist myself, either. Do you think I want independence for the sake of nationalism? Is it so that I can cover myself in woad and run claymore-wielding through the glens? No. It's not primarily about nationalism - at least, not that sort of nationalism. It's about democracy, constitutionalism, good government, civic renewal, and sensible, well-tailored policies which are fit for a small, northern European country of 5 million people, so that we can begin to realise our potential, and can overcome the legacy of three or four centuries of neglect by an absentee landlord (and by her oh-so-keen, and well-fattened, Scottish factors).
quote:
You might well be correct that the best deal for Scotland, and the most democratically legitimate outcome for Scotland is independence.
Aye, I might well be.
quote:
That does not detract from the point that this debate was between the leaders who are at least capable of forming a government at Westminster.
Again, why should it be a debate only between leaders who are capable of forming a government? I challenge your view that the sole purpose of a parliamentary election is to chose a Government. That is ONE purpose. There are others - like to chose representatives, who, although they will not form a Government, might be in a position to influence the agenda or outcomes, and protect certain interests. The debates ought to reflect that, and to include those who might not form a government at Westminster.
quote:
I really don't see how this is having anything both ways, and I would appreciate if you could explain that point without hyperbole.
Way One: The SNP aren't significant because they will not form a government at Westminster.
Way Two: Westminster is of paramount importance, even in devolved countries, because it can change the terms of devolution.
If the second of these is true (which it is) then the SNP, who have a pretty strong view on Scotland's future, ought to be fairly represented, even if they will not form the next Government. Likewise Plaid Cymru should have a fair say in Wales.
quote:
The reality behind the objections is the SNP and Plaid Cymru claim to be the only parties 'speaking' for scotland and Wales respectively. I'm sure that by their own standards that claim is true. Unfortunately for them, that is not the standard that counts.
Not in the least. Of course we recognise that other parties have significant support too. But the SNP and Plaid Cymru are important, and do speak for very many. To exclude them is a gross disservice which reflects very badly on the London-based decision-makers, revealing the fact that their outlook is not broad enough to accommodate the diversity of this kingdom which, for some strange reason, they seem very intent on holding together.
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Spawn:
You really are naive aren't you? You pick up only one of the points I made (and probably the weakest) and come back to me on that basis.
So you don't like my debating style, and you're raising the tone of the debate with mild name-calling?
Your defence of the view that Mr Cameron is "completely unrelated" to attacks on his political opponents in conservative tabloids, even though Mr Cameron recruited an ex-tabloid journalist to "liaise with editors, comment editors and columnists", seems to rely on either of two possibiliies:
1. That, when he talks about his 'positive' message, Mr Cameron doesn't know that his spin doctor is engaging in negative campaigning, or
2. That Conservative spin doctors, unlike their opponents, don't try to 'spin' negative stories in the media ...
... and you're accusing me of being naive!
[ 23. April 2010, 07:06: Message edited by: Alwyn ]
Posted by Spawn (# 4867) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Alwyn:
quote:
Originally posted by Spawn:
You really are naive aren't you? You pick up only one of the points I made (and probably the weakest) and come back to me on that basis.
So you don't like my debating style, and you're raising the tone of the debate with mild name-calling?
And you're guilty of the most appalling hypocrisy. You can't see that you're smearing in exactly the same way as the tabloids - no evidence just association, and assumptions.
But you also haven't a clue how the tabloids work. Of course they were going to attempt to bring Clegg down to size - that's simply what the tabloids do. Furthermore, the Telegraph had the dodgy expenses evidence about Clegg in a filing cabinet and were going to use it to maximum effect. This was all absolutely predictable and needed no collusion from the Tories. Furthermore, the fact that Coulson is a poacher turned gamekeeper, doesn't mean that he has any influence still even at News of the World. Nice try, but it just reads like conspiracy theory.
And your point about negative campaigning tactics? Are you trying to tell me that this is a uniquely conservative vice? That would be truly ridiculous.
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Spawn:
And you're guilty of the most appalling hypocrisy. You can't see that you're smearing in exactly the same way as the tabloids - no evidence just association, and assumptions.
Mr Cameron claimed to focus on 'positive' messages - I didn't. Believing that Mr Cameron's spin doctor is doing the job that he was hired to do doesn't sound like a big 'assumption' to me. YMMV.
quote:
Originally posted by Spawn:
And your point about negative campaigning tactics? Are you trying to tell me that this is a uniquely conservative vice? That would be truly ridiculous.
Yes, that would be ridiculous. If I didn't think that other parties engaged in spin, I'd hardly have referred to Alastair Campbell's book, would I, Spawn? Be reasonable.
My point wasn't that 'only the Conservatives engage in negative spin' - if you want to defend your implication that I said that, please provide a quote or link to the relevant post.
My point was that Mr Cameron was claiming to be positive, while having hired a spin doctor to do his negative campaigning for him - and that the Conservatives have an advantage over the Lib Dems because of (unlike the Lib Dems) they have conservative tabloids ready and willing to publish negative attacks.
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
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FWIW, Spawn, I feel that our conversation is generating more heat than light and I'm at least as responsible for that as anyone else. Is there a chance of talking about this in a different way?
I can see where Marvin the Martian was 'coming from' when he talked about the apparent inconsistency of attacks on the Conservatives when Mr Cameron talked about the Big Society. I imagine that Conservatives feel that they're 'damned if they do, damned if they don't'.
I wasn't being sarcastic when I said that Mr Cameron's Big Society speech is 'interesting' (as in, worthy of thought and reflection). I don't buy the criticism of Mr Cameron that he's 'just a PR man' - he'd hardly have graduated with a First from Oxford - and been described by constitutional scholar Vernon Bogdanor as among the brightest 5 per cent of students he had ever taught (Elliott & Hanning 2009, p. 51) - if he didn't have serious intellectual strength.
I wasn't being sarcastic, either, when I agreed that Marvin had a good point that Mr Cameron bears no direct responsibility for a negative story in the Mail. That did weaken my argument. Instead of arguing that 'Mr Cameron is responsible because he did X', I'm arguing that 'Mr Cameron is responsible because he hired Y, knowing that Y was likely to do X.'
You're right, I imagine, that the right-wing media don't agree with Cameron's inner circle on everything. I agree that there's a lot that I don't know about the media. You're also correct that the right-wing tabloids would have their own reasons for wanting to attack Labour the the Lib Dems.
I hope that helps a bit.
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Alwyn:
- he'd hardly have graduated with a First from Oxford - and been described by constitutional scholar Vernon Bogdanor as among the brightest 5 per cent of students he had ever taught - if he didn't have serious intellectual strength.
Hmm. Another reason not to trust Cameron on "reforms"; if Bogdanor rates him, he must be very seriously confused! (Or - shock horror - a bit of an unreconstructed Tory!)
And I suppose Broon, for all his many faults, at least had the decency to go to a good university and get hit on the head by John Knox's breeks.
[ 23. April 2010, 10:30: Message edited by: RadicalWhig ]
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
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quote:
Originally posted by leo:
Whatever they say about their new idea, they are going to allow people to take over schools without any prior experience - so fundamentalist creationists can indoctrinate children.
One imagines some form of national curriculum will still apply.
quote:
They want to encourage local volunteering with no conception of the cost of CRB checks for all of them
So you don't think more people volunteering would be a good thing? I suppose they should all sit back and wait for nanny to take care of the problems for them, right?
quote:
They want to give 3 per week to married/civilly partnered couples, thus penalising unmarried mothers/fathers.
Giving one person a bit more does not penalise anyone else. And besides, I'd have thought you'd like policies that promote the institution of marriage?
quote:
They want to make swinging cuts which will lead us back to thatcher's 198s with high unemployment and double-dip recession.
Whoever gets in at the next election, the cuts are going to happen anyway. They've already started.
Unemployment is the highest it's been in 15 years (though the Independent claims it's 16) - it was lower under the last Conservative government.
As for recession, we were taken into this one by the same man who promised that he had put an end to boom and bust. You seriously think he is the right person to get us out of it?
.
After those quotes, you start with all the little anecdotes and rumours about various party members, with nothing but your good word to back them up. I shan't dignify such mud slinging with a reply.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
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quote:
Originally posted by leo:
They want to give 3 per week to married/civilly partnered couples, thus penalising unmarried mothers/fathers.
Anglicant and Marvin have answered your other points, but just on this one, the present tax and benefits system de facto penalises married and civil couples with children; this reform would go some way to redressing the balance and creating more of a level playing field.
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Anglicant and Marvin have answered your other points, but just on this one, the present tax and benefits system de facto penalises married and civil couples with children; this reform would go some way to redressing the balance and creating more of a level playing field.
How so?
Child benefit (usually paid to the mother/non-working parent), Working Families Tax Credits and Child Tax Credits don't penalise married/partnered couples, unless you take a very creative view of the word penalise.
The benefit system, yes, in that people with live-in partners get less per household than if they lived apart. That should be changed - the money goes with the person, and the state should have no say in the living arrangements thereafter.
And for sure, it would have been good for me and Mrs Tor to transfer my unused personal allowance to her. But totally transferable allowances is not what Cameron is promising.
So I'd be interested on how you'd justify your assertion.
Posted by Pottage (# 9529) on
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quote:
Originally posted by leo:
They want to give 3 per week to married/civilly partnered couples, thus penalising unmarried mothers/fathers.
Actually the proposals on allowances seem to be quite progressive in that the concession is to be targeted at lower earning couples. Only a proportion of unused allowances could be transferred of course, but that's better than the current position by which the tax allowances of a partner who doesn't work are entirely wasted. A more generous concession would be lovely (especially if it were to be drawn widely enough for me to share in the bounty too) but would probably be impossible for the economy to sustain.
To prevent obvious abuse the facility has to be limited to arrangements with a demonstrable degree of permanence, and the tests proposed seem to be the best that could be expected. Subject to the earnings limit, as I understand it couples would qualify for this if they had any kind of formal and verifiable civil union, whether or not they were also married in a religious sense and whether they are straight or gay. Couples who live together in loving and permanent relationships but who prefer never to fomalise their relationship in any way that the civil law recognises would forego the benefit, but that's their choice. It's essential that the line is drawn in a way that is unambiguous and practical for administration purposes otherwise it is going to cost too much to administer, in which case the benefits wouldn't be available to anyone.
In the same way, cutting off this facility abruptly if the working partner reaches a particular salary level (in the case of this proposal the level at which higher rate tax cuts in) is arbitrary. But again there has to be a cut-off point somewhere and it would cost too much to police and administer the benefit if it didn't have simple and easily identified triggers.
Posted by Carys (# 78) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
quote:
Originally posted by Carys:
The danger is that Plaid's exclusion from the debate will cost seats -- specifically Ceredigion. LibDems took it in 2005 with a 219 majority. Currently spike of LibDem support following the ITV debate gives them an unfair advantage in that constituency.
How is that any more unfair to Plaid Cymru than to, for example, UKIP or the Greens who, unlike Plaid Cymru, are standing candidates across the country?
It is unfair to UKIP and the Greens, but they won no seats in the last General Election. Plaid and the SNP did. Thus it is arguably more unfair to Plaid and the SNP. But having said that if you were to limit it to those who already had seats, it could be seen as keeping the Westminster club closed.
Basically, the concept is flawed!
quote:
Also, it occurs to me that perhaps many voters in Wales who would vote PC for Welsh Assembly elections vote Lib Dems for Westminster as the latter will have far more clout, rather than because of a televised debate. This would reflect what has already happened in Scotland.
Perhaps. But this is an attitude Plaid is challenging. And then there is the opinion of the Independent Columnist who cited Plaid's 3MPs as having had more influence in the last Parliament than all of the LibDems put together!
quote:
quote:
Added to which the UK debates are in many ways English debates. The ITV one had the theme of domestic affairs, many of which are devolved, but unfortunately most non-anoraks don't know this. But liking the LibDems manifesto promises on education is fine for a Welsh person, but they don't actually apply to schools in Wales.
I'm not quite sure what your objection is here. Are you suggesting that matters concerning England only should be excluded from the debate?
The big problem is that under the current constituntional settlement Westminster functions both as the English Parliament and as the UK. Then because of the media bias to England (well London!) and the large population of England means that all to frequently matters that only affect England are talked about as though they affected the whole UK.
The broadcasters ought to have been able to come up with a system that dealt with this issues. BBC and ITV have regions and so a debate on matters that are devolved could have been broadcast by them in England only (with the major parties in England, however defined). Then debates with representation from all major parties could have been broadcast on non-devolved issues. Admittedly there are issues in that Criminal Justice (for example) is devolved in Scotland but not in Wales). Northern Ireland gets its own debates because it basically (ignoring the Conservative UUP pact) has entirely separate parties.
quote:
It's worth adding that the Welsh Assembly (and for that matter the Scottish Parliament) are the creations of the Westminster Parliament, which can add to, subtract from, or override their powers. Therefore, whoever gets control of it is surely relevant to voters outside England.
That and the fact that certain matters are not devolved/reserved. Defence is an example of this and here Plaid and the SNP oppose any replacement of Trident unlike Labour and Tories (pro like for like replacement) and LibDems (pro some sort of replacement but not like for like IIRC).
Carys
[ETR extraneous QUOTE code]
[ 23. April 2010, 13:06: Message edited by: Carys ]
Posted by Spawn (# 4867) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alwyn:
FWIW, Spawn, I feel that our conversation is generating more heat than light and I'm at least as responsible for that as anyone else. Is there a chance of talking about this in a different way?
Apologies myself for ratcheting up the heat.
I still don't think that the appointment of Coulson per se means that Cameron has given permission for negative campaigning. Ex-tabloid editors quickly pass their sell-by-date as far as influence is concerned, but can turn from poacher into gamekeeper pretty effectively. I suspect he was brought in because he understands the press, is skilled at coming up with sound-bites, has contacts, and can place stories.
On the election in general terms, I'm finding myself thoroughly bored. I just listened to Cameron on the World at One and he's not saying anything beyond what I've already heard many times - I think the same is true for the other two leaders. The problem with having the debates so early in the election campaign is that there is now very little opportunity during the campaigns for the parties to draw out particular priorities and policies in their manifestos in more gradual and focussed ways.
I'd much prefer to have seen all three debates in the final week of campaigning. But there again, I know exactly who I'm voting for, so it's all over until polling day.
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
Thank you - I apologise too for raising the temperature. Your argument sounds plausible. Oliver Burkeman in today's Guardian agrees with you:
"To the untrained eye, yesterday's unprecedented wall-to-wall assault on Nick Clegg in the pages of Britain's right-wing newspapers might have looked like an orchestrated attack by a Tory media machine [...] But the truth, according to those with knowledge of the editors and newspapers involved, was far more visceral and chaotic."
I admit having 'untrained eyes' on this subject. Lord Ashdown has reportedly said that the Conservatives "co-ordinated" the attacks on Mr Clegg, so I wasn't the only person to suspect their involvement - but he (and I) may be wrong. I guess we won't know for sure, either way, until Mr Cameron and Mr Coulson's memoirs are published, years from now.
Posted by leo (# 1458) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
Whatever they say about their new idea, they are going to allow people to take over schools without any prior experience - so fundamentalist creationists can indoctrinate children.
One imagines some form of national curriculum will still apply.
No - just like academies and independent schools, no national curriculum (sadly also a LibDem policy to 'free them from the constraints....'
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Anglicant and Marvin have answered your other points, but just on this one, the present tax and benefits system de facto penalises married and civil couples with children; this reform would go some way to redressing the balance and creating more of a level playing field.
How so?
Child benefit (usually paid to the mother/non-working parent), Working Families Tax Credits and Child Tax Credits don't penalise married/partnered couples, unless you take a very creative view of the word penalise.
The benefit system, yes, in that people with live-in partners get less per household than if they lived apart. That should be changed - the money goes with the person, and the state should have no say in the living arrangements thereafter.
And for sure, it would have been good for me and Mrs Tor to transfer my unused personal allowance to her. But totally transferable allowances is not what Cameron is promising.
So I'd be interested on how you'd justify your assertion.
A couple of articles here and here should get you going.
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
A couple of articles here and here should get you going.
Get me going? Hell yes.
The only figure - the only figure quoted was the woman who lost her child care allowance when she got married. The rest is just assertion without attribution.
Seriously, I'd like some actual facts. How am I worse off being married?
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
Putting it simply, if you are married with children and one of you stays home to look after the children, it used to be the case that part of the stay-at-home partner's tax allowance could be transferred to the working partner. Cameron and Co are proposing a limited re-introduction of this. All other things being equal, beyond child benefit, the stay-at-home partner doesn't get any state benefit. If you split up however, the non-working parent does become entitled to significantly higher levels of benefit.
Posted by Ricardus (# 8757) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
No - just like academies and independent schools, no national curriculum (sadly also a LibDem policy to 'free them from the constraints....'
Having previously bashed Labour, I feel obliged to bash the Lib Dems by pointing out that Clegg's claim that "it's what they do in Sweden" is actually false: quote:
From this Telegraph article:
Claim:
Mr Clegg said: "Our National Curriculum is 600 pages. The curriculum in Sweden, which has generally got fairly good education system, is 16 pages."
Truth:
According to the Qualifications and Curriculum Development Agency, which oversees the curriculum, the primary curriculum in English schools is 181 pages long and the secondary curriculum is 200 pages long, a combined total of 381 pages. The Swedish curriculum is 135 pages long but is being revised because it isn't considered detailed enough.
Ingrid Lindskog, of the Swedish National Agency for Education, said: "That is a big misunderstanding. The overview to the curriculum is 16 pages, but the whole curriculum is much longer. In fact, it's being revised so that it should be around 250 pages because the current one is not detailed enough."
Anyone who is very bored can see the Swedish curriculum here.
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
250 pages because the current one is not detailed enough."
Anyone who is very bored can see the Swedish curriculum here. [/QUOTE]
I'm not bored enough to read it, but I am impressed (bemused?) (strangely worried?) that they have gone to the trouble of translating the whole thing into English? Do they think that English-speakers are sufficiently dull and worthy to read this stuff? Don't they know that we'd probably turn it into paper airplanes or silly hats, or pass it around with rude notes on?
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Putting it simply, if you are married with children and one of you stays home to look after the children, it used to be the case that part of the stay-at-home partner's tax allowance could be transferred to the working partner. Cameron and Co are proposing a limited re-introduction of this. All other things being equal, beyond child benefit, the stay-at-home partner doesn't get any state benefit. If you split up however, the non-working parent does become entitled to significantly higher levels of benefit.
Okay - so what you're saying is that before I got married, the transfer of tax allowances between married partners was withdrawn, but now a (very) limited reintroduction would make me (up to) £3 a week better off.
So in the first instance, I'm not actually worse off being married because I got married after the transfer was abolished.
In the second, I can see how my wife would be better off leaving me and the kids, but I'm reasonably confident the state benefits I'd receive being a barely-employed single dad with two school age children wouldn't cover the shortfall. I'm sure I've seen stats that say one of the major causes of poverty in this country is divorce. If it didn't cause a massive financial hit, but instead allowed the accruing of significant state benefits, that wouldn't be the case, would it?
I don't mind Cameron engaging in some token gesture to say "marriage is a good idea", but let's not get carried away with either the extent of his largesse or the penury in which married couples live.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by RadicalWhig:
I'm not bored enough to read it, but I am impressed (bemused?) (strangely worried?) that they have gone to the trouble of translating the whole thing into English
No - it's so that the true rulers of this world, the English speaking Illuminati, can check they've got it right
Posted by leo (# 1458) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by St. Punk the Pious:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
quote:
Originally posted by St. Punk the Pious:
Clegg is such an Israel-bashing anti-semite prat, he deserves to be called a Nazi.
There are many Jews who criticise the State of Israel. Are they Nazis too?
Among other things, Clegg talks of Israel "imprisoning" the Palestinians. That rubbish goes beyond criticism.
Similar words are used by Christian Aid (who have volunteers monitoring the so-called security fence an the Palestinians who have to queue for 3 hours every morning to get to their farmland.) and by the United Nations.
[ 23. April 2010, 18:07: Message edited by: leo ]
Posted by leo (# 1458) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
They want to encourage local volunteering with no conception of the cost of CRB checks for all of them
So the most expensive part of setting up a school or community organisation is complying with CRB checks? I wouldn't have thought so.
Can these volunteers afford the £64 each of the will have to pay for a CRB check?
What sort of people will volunteer? I am worried that well-meaning do-gooders from sheltered, middle class backgrounds will alienate the people they are supposed to help. Will the work of these do-gooders be ‘joined up’ i.e. with social services, p0olice etc., so as to enable multi-agency expertise?
Can a 'top-down' government initiative encourage people to 'be good' ?
Where are these volunteers going to come from? (People are going to work longer hours and retire later) Will they be people with their own agenda? ‘Loonies’ with time on their hands? Churches and voluntary groups like the Brownies tend to be chasing an ever-decreasing number of people for help.
And why divert £50million from anti-extremism funding to pay for voluntary three-week character-building summer courses for 16-year-olds?
The poll Ipsos Mori shows that while almost half (43 per cent) of the public said they would like to get more involved in their local area in principle, only five per cent said they would seek active involvement in local services and decision making.
According to Phil Hope, minister for the 3rd sector: "The Tory attitude towards the third sector is patronising and dangerous. Their plans show they would leave charities to deal with some of society's most difficult problems without the money needed to do it, hoping for hand-outs rather than being funded properly to do their important work."
According to The Spectator (hardly a left wing rag!): One intriguing aspect of the scheme is that the Tories say they are particularly keen for it to reach ‘people who have been through the criminal justice system.’ One could argue that this is sensible, that these people are particularly in need of an experience that would teach them self-discipline and respect for others. But one can imagine that some parents might not be so keen to send their children away with a youth offender.
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
Can these volunteers afford the £64 each of the will have to pay for a CRB check?
Irrelevant. Volunteers do not have to pay for CRB checks.
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Carys:
The broadcasters ought to have been able to come up with a system that dealt with this issues. BBC and ITV have regions and so a debate on matters that are devolved could have been broadcast by them in England only (with the major parties in England, however defined). Then debates with representation from all major parties could have been broadcast on non-devolved issues. Admittedly there are issues in that Criminal Justice (for example) is devolved in Scotland but not in Wales). Northern Ireland gets its own debates because it basically (ignoring the Conservative UUP pact) has entirely separate parties.
I think given enough time and support from the parties the broadcasters could and would have done it. It was a huge task for the broadcasters to persuade all three party leaders to take part in three debates as it was, with what looked like a ridiculous rule book and where any of the three of them could have pulled out at any moment and scuppered the whole thing. It sets the groundwork for the next election to consider other issues.
So just as there was also a 4th 'Chancellors' debate, there could also be a 5th 'Welsh & Scottish' debate with the PC / SNP leader / deputy leaders and one person from the three largest UK parties, initially taken on by one of the local ITV companies and then rebroadcast. Obviously slight problems with the tv company boundaries and what and when to broadcast to most of England, but these are not insoluble.
I would have thought some sort of deal could be done for the next election.
One of the concerns the major parties had is not so much PC / SNP, but UKIP / Green / BNP using that as a foothold for a debate with the Prime Minister. What should be the national / regional cut-off for support to get tv coverage?
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
Can these volunteers afford the £64 each of the will have to pay for a CRB check?
What Freejack said and also, £64 per volunteer is small beer compared to, say, acquiring new land for a school or building a school.
quote:
What sort of people will volunteer? I am worried that well-meaning do-gooders from sheltered, middle class backgrounds will alienate the people they are supposed to help. Will the work of these do-gooders be ‘joined up’ i.e. with social services, p0olice etc., so as to enable multi-agency expertise?
I don't know what sort of people will volunteer but I don't believe that middle-class people are 'sheltered' (aren't we all middle class now? Labour likes to think we are) or in any way ineffectual.
quote:
Can a 'top-down' government initiative encourage people to 'be good' ?
Isn't this the opposite of 'top-down'? It's designed to encourage people to set up their own projects.
quote:
Where are these volunteers going to come from? (People are going to work longer hours and retire later) Will they be people with their own agenda? ‘Loonies’ with time on their hands? Churches and voluntary groups like the Brownies tend to be chasing an ever-decreasing number of people for help.
A fair point, but I'd like to think that people will come forward.
quote:
And why divert £50million from anti-extremism funding to pay for voluntary three-week character-building summer courses for 16-year-olds?
I don't know anything about this 'anti-extremism funding' but I have doubts about whether £50 million is going to stop someone stuffing semtex down their trousers and wandering on to the tube.
quote:
The poll Ipsos Mori shows that while almost half (43 per cent) of the public said they would like to get more involved in their local area in principle, only five per cent said they would seek active involvement in local services and decision making.
I calculate 5% of the population as 3,000,000 people. More than enough to run the nation's schools and voluntary groups, I would've thought.
quote:
According to Phil Hope, minister for the 3rd sector: "The Tory attitude towards the third sector is patronising and dangerous. Their plans show they would leave charities to deal with some of society's most difficult problems without the money needed to do it, hoping for hand-outs rather than being funded properly to do their important work."
When it comes to the Conservatives' plans, I'm not going to take the views of a Labour politician, defending a very marginal seat, in the middle of a general election campaign, at all seriously.
quote:
According to The Spectator (hardly a left wing rag!): One intriguing aspect of the scheme is that the Tories say they are particularly keen for it to reach ‘people who have been through the criminal justice system.’ One could argue that this is sensible, that these people are particularly in need of an experience that would teach them self-discipline and respect for others. But one can imagine that some parents might not be so keen to send their children away with a youth offender.
I don't understand the quote. Are they saying that they hope those who have been in the criminal justice system will benefit from the schemes or be involved in them? Do you have a link to the Speccie article?
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
Hi Carys and RadicalWhig - thanks for your replies - just to let you know that I will respond in due course but can't do so properly at present because my house is overrun by guests and children, and I am rushed off my feet.
As a preliminary and having read your replies I think (RadicalWhig) that while Scottish independence is an issue worth debating, it is not and cannot be an issue that defines this election. Carys - there are other parties that poll as heavily as Plaid Cymru, and the fact that their support is distributed more widely stikes me as a poor reason for treating them as less important. I think it is quite clear that a more elegant and appropriate solution is for the party leaders in Wales and Scotland to hold their own debate if they so choose. Anyway, I will respond properly when I have cleaned up the last vestige of birthday party jelly.
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
:
A glimpse behind the scenes in the Press Room at the second leaders' debate. I find it mildly scary how the Press has to simultaneously report and maintain relationships with the politicians so that they can report in the future. Isn't that something of a conflict of interest?
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
A glimpse behind the scenes in the Press Room at the second leaders' debate. I find it mildly scary how the Press has to simultaneously report and maintain relationships with the politicians so that they can report in the future. Isn't that something of a conflict of interest?
That's pretty much how the reporting of political events and government at very level has always been. The relationship between Ministers, MPs, Lords and senior civil servants on one hand and the reporters in the "Parliamentary lobby" is another constitutional curiosity. It is probably much worse at the local level where council proceedings can do unreported if the local paper doesn't have the resources and the council excludes the press at every opportunity.
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
If you split up however, the non-working parent does become entitled to significantly higher levels of benefit.
When my wife left me for another man and I had to move out my disposable income fell by well over five hundred pounds a month. So I am pretty bloody sure you are talking nonsense.
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by RadicalWhig:
....I am impressed (bemused?) (strangely worried?) that they have gone to the trouble of translating the whole thing into English?
All Swedish official educational materials are translated into English. In secondary schools they even sometimes use English textbooks for science subjects. You can't attend a Swedish university unless you are proficient in both Swedish and English.
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
A glimpse behind the scenes in the Press Room at the second leaders' debate. I find it mildly scary how the Press has to simultaneously report and maintain relationships with the politicians so that they can report in the future. Isn't that something of a conflict of interest?
Do not underestimate the level of co-ordination between political campaigns and the newspapers in Britain. There are, at least sometimes, meetings between newspaper people and representives of the party they support where the papers give advance warning of upcoming news and the parties give them stories to print. And yes, there have been occasions when UK newspapers have printed front-page stories at the request of political parties. And supposedly independent journalists have given advice to parties on media presentation and even advance warning of the questions they intend to ask. At the extreme the parties and the papers develop political strategies together.
I do not know how often that happens but I know it has happened in the past, and not just tabloids either, serious daily and weekly papers have been involved.
Obviously I don't know the details this time round but I would be pretty sure that the Mail and possibly the Telegraph are entirely in bed with the Tories, and its very likely that the Murdoch papers (including the Times and the Sun) have at least close informal dealings with them as well. Same applies to the weekly Spectator. No-one really cares about the Express any more, but it is almost certainly also committed to support the Tories.
Political news in those newspapers during an election campaign is in effect party propaganda and to be read with the same skepticism as the any other campaign literature. I mean, quite seriously, when the editors of the Daily Mail are deciding which stories to put on the front page they will include the Tory party in their discussions and may well exclude any news item that might discredit the Tories.
The Liberals will probably be supported by the rather misnamed Independent and will at least get a sympathetic ear from the Guardian and Observer and maybe the weekly Economist (though they overtly and covertly supported the Tories in Thatchers time) Coming from different sides of the fence the Grauniad and its stablemates, and the Economist and Financial Times are the only UK national newspapers likely to remain politically independent in news reporting during the election.
Labour will probably only be supported by the Mirror and the low-circulation weekly New Statesman (News International probably employ more people than read the Staggers!)
NB I'm not talking about editorial and opinion pages of the newspapers - almost all of them take sides and let you know what side they are on. And all of them - even the Sun and the Mail regularly give space to writers who oppose the line of the paper (though maybe not the day before the election!)
Nor am I talking about outright lies - though in the final week the Mail may well knowingly print lies on the front page - they have often done it before - but they are the only British paper with a big history of that.
It is basically about filtering the news. Printing stories that talk about the things your party wants to talk about. Relegating other stories to the bottom of page seven or the week after the election. Making up shock headlines that do not adequatly describe the contents of the article (The most egregious so far was the Mail's CLEGG IN NAZI SLUR ON BRITAIN which existed purely as a headline - the story underneath so inconsequential its hard to see how the staff could stay awake long enough to set it. And of course choosing which of the dozens of opinion polls to mention today in order to talk up your party and talk down the others.
One of the reasons I rarely read newspapers any more. And why all British people should thank God for the BBC. (And vote for party that is not going to gut the BBC and sell the offal to Murdoch's bottom-feeding lampreys)
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by ken:
The Liberals will probably be supported by the rather misnamed Independent and will at least get a sympathetic ear from the Guardian and Observer and maybe the weekly Economist (though they overtly and covertly supported the Tories in Thatchers time) Coming from different sides of the fence the Grauniad and its stablemates, and the Economist and Financial Times are the only UK national newspapers likely to remain politically independent in news reporting during the election.
The Guardian looks likely to throw in a vote for a Lib Dem leaning hung parliament. But it's being transparent about it.
A reading from the 30529th Letter of Ken to the Shipmates:
quote:
And why all British people should thank God for the BBC. (And vote for party that is not going to gut the BBC and sell the offal to Murdoch's bottom-feeding lampreys)
Amen.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by ken:
Obviously I don't know the details this time round but I would be pretty sure that the Mail and possibly the Telegraph are entirely in bed with the Tories, and its very likely that the Murdoch papers (including the Times and the Sun) have at least close informal dealings with them as well. Same applies to the weekly Spectator. No-one really cares about the Express any more, but it is almost certainly also committed to support the Tories.
This comment is oblivious to the fact that Paul Dacre, the editor of the Daily Mail, is a chum of Gordon Brown and has said before that support for the Tories by the Mail is not guaranteed. It also ignores the anti-Tory headlines in the Daily Telegraph recently.
quote:
I mean, quite seriously, when the editors of the Daily Mail are deciding which stories to put on the front page they will include the Tory party in their discussions and may well exclude any news item that might discredit the Tories.
I think you're in danger of getting into tin foil hat territory here.
quote:
Nor am I talking about outright lies - though in the final week the Mail may well knowingly print lies on the front page - they have often done it before - but they are the only British paper with a big history of that.
Were you caught out by the Daily Mail at some point in your life? You seem to have something personal against them. I don't care for the Mail, but they don't have the history of altering photographs to create stories, which the Sun and the Mirror have.
quote:
Making up shock headlines that do not adequatly describe the contents of the article (The most egregious so far was the Mail's CLEGG IN NAZI SLUR ON BRITAIN which existed purely as a headline - the story underneath so inconsequential its hard to see how the staff could stay awake long enough to set it. And of course choosing which of the dozens of opinion polls to mention today in order to talk up your party and talk down the others.
I agree that the headline was daft, but the comments made by Nick Clegg - who after all wants to be our Prime Minister at the moment - were worthy of scrutiny.
quote:
And why all British people should thank God for the BBC. (And vote for party that is not going to gut the BBC and sell the offal to Murdoch's bottom-feeding lampreys)
Fortunately for you, Ken, no leading political party is planning to do this.
Posted by Makepiece (# 10454) on
:
Ken is absolutely right about the daily mail's lies, they are more sophisticated than the sun and the mirror which is what makes their lies mroe deceitful. The mail wilfully puts forward false pictures of reality. For example, on one of the few occasions that I read the paper, they described an injunction that prevented the press from revealing details of Maxine Carr's new address as 'draconian'. That was an absurd suggestion. What would be the point in giving Maxine Carr a new address if the press were able to give the public details of it?
The mail will also pick out one example of an asylum seeker who has committed a crime and then write in a tone which suggests that all asylum seekers are likely to behave in the same way. That is lying because it attempts to portray as true something which is clearly false.
Posted by Spawn (# 4867) on
:
Ken, you say it all with such certainty. But in reality you are merely a purveyor of left-wing conspiracies and fantasies. After all, it really is an epic fantasy to pretend that the Guardian is editorally independent or the BBC impartial. Furthermore the idea that the Daily Mail is inviting conservative participation in their editorial decisions betrays a massive amount of ignorance about the reality of the difficult, testy and anxious relationships that exist between politicans and the press.
I daresay that there have been all sorts of types of collusion between political parties and the press at various times, but less recently times I think. The fact is that the Telegraph and the Mail despise Cameron's modernising tendencies though of course they still want a Conservative victory.
The truth is that the newsppaers are all pretty open about their editorial biases and for the most part the readers either don't even notice it or manage to ignore it entirely.
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Spawn:
... a massive amount of ignorance about the reality of the difficult, testy and anxious relationships that exist between politicans and the press.
But it there has certainly been collusion in the past. And just look at the Mail's front pages!
Posted by Spawn (# 4867) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by ken:
quote:
Originally posted by Spawn:
... a massive amount of ignorance about the reality of the difficult, testy and anxious relationships that exist between politicans and the press.
But it there has certainly been collusion in the past. And just look at the Mail's front pages!
Well, the Daily Mail's agenda is hardly a secret but that doesn't mean they like Cameron. And yes, there has been collusion in the past between News International and Tony Blair to take but one example, but I strongly doubt that's ever gone as far as the Newspapers inviting day-to-day interference in editorial decisions by a politician.
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
Like many labour supporters, (I suppose), I was considering tactical voting lib dem to oppose my sitting tory MP - flipped his house, is the antithesis of everything I believe in etc plus labour was third in this consituency at the last election.
Nick Clegg has now said unambiguously that if labour share of the national vote fell to third he would not consider an alliance. Given as I would be voting lib dem to keep the tories out, and my voting lib dem wuld lower the labour vote share - I will be voting labour.
I wonder how many other votes he will have lost.
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on
:
Spawn,
Whilst you may have a point about the Mail's misgivings about Cameron, it is ridiculous in the extreme not to acknowledge the extreme dishonesty of Mail reporting - all in order to serve a specific agenda. There are countless examples but here's a short article from an author I trust Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics
AFZ
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Think²:
Like many labour supporters, (I suppose), I was considering tactical voting lib dem to oppose my sitting tory MP - flipped his house, is the antithesis of everything I believe in etc plus labour was third in this consituency at the last election.
Nick Clegg has now said unambiguously that if labour share of the national vote fell to third he would not consider an alliance. Given as I would be voting lib dem to keep the tories out, and my voting lib dem wuld lower the labour vote share - I will be voting labour.
I wonder how many other votes he will have lost.
I'm in a similar position. Gonna have to think very carefully about that.
AFZ
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
If we actually already had PR (which incidentally I am in favour of) it would be different. But surely alot of people both labour and tory do vote lib dem as a tactical vote - because of the vagaries of the current system.
I assume that Clegg (if this is genuinely a point of principle) would hold the same position in respect of the Tories.
Surely there is a risk they will lose a substantial number of tactical voters like myself ?
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
quote:
Originally posted by Think²:
Like many labour supporters, (I suppose), I was considering tactical voting lib dem to oppose my sitting tory MP - flipped his house, is the antithesis of everything I believe in etc plus labour was third in this consituency at the last election.
Nick Clegg has now said unambiguously that if labour share of the national vote fell to third he would not consider an alliance. Given as I would be voting lib dem to keep the tories out, and my voting lib dem wuld lower the labour vote share - I will be voting labour.
I wonder how many other votes he will have lost.
I'm in a similar position. Gonna have to think very carefully about that.
AFZ
It was a silly thing to say, but I think it has its roots in the mutual dislike between Clegg and Brown. Clegg would get on far better with Alan Johnson and if Brown can't form a government but Labour is the largest party in a hung parliament, that could be proposed. What a mess that would be though, as the leader of the Parliamentary Labour Party has to be elected from within the Labour Party!
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
In my fantasy world; people would vote for what they thought was best for the country as a whole rather thn their personal self-interest (and politicians would recognise this an electioneer on that basis), and politicians would make decisions based on the good of the country rather than their personal likes and dislikes.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
I think there would be uproar if Gordon Brown led Labour to a third place defeat and Nick Clegg agreed to prop up a Labour government. By ruling out a coalition in those circumstances, I don't think he hasn't said anything unreasonable.
Clegg's statements over the weekend are unclear as to whether or not he would form a coalition with Labour after the election.
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
I think the specific question was if labour had the mps but not the vote share.
Posted by Spawn (# 4867) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
Spawn,
Whilst you may have a point about the Mail's misgivings about Cameron, it is ridiculous in the extreme not to acknowledge the extreme dishonesty of Mail reporting - all in order to serve a specific agenda. There are countless examples but here's a short article from an author I trust Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics
AFZ
No I don't think there is anything intrinsic about the Daily Mail's reporting that makes it worse than other newspapers. The Daily Mail is a kneejerk target of scorn by people who seldom or never read it, but its driving assumptions and cultural standpoint are simply rather alien to those who find it most offensive.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Think²:
I think the specific question was if labour had the mps but not the vote share.
Because of the way the constituency boundaries are drawn at the moment, if Labour managed only third place in the polls, it might have the second highest number of seats in the Commons. In that scenario, as I said before, I think there would be uproar if Clegg propped up a Labour government.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Think²:
I think the specific question was if labour had the mps but not the vote share.
Because of the way the constituency boundaries are drawn at the moment, if Labour managed only third place in the polls, it might have the second highest number of seats in the Commons. In that scenario, as I said before, I think there would be uproar if Clegg propped up a Labour government.
No, it's worse than that; the present arrangement of constituencies offers the prospect of Labour getting the third highest number of votes but the most seats; i.e. more seats and less votes than both Tories AND Lib Dems. In 1974 they had more seats but less votes than the Tories in the February election, but were allowed to get away with becoming the government. Clegg seems to have decided he won't tolerate a repeat of that - at least with Gordo as PM, as a precise reading of his comments suggests that he might allow a Labour PM other than Gordo.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Think²:
I think the specific question was if labour had the mps but not the vote share.
Because of the way the constituency boundaries are drawn at the moment, if Labour managed only third place in the polls, it might have the second highest number of seats in the Commons. In that scenario, as I said before, I think there would be uproar if Clegg propped up a Labour government.
I've been playing with the vote share calculators on the BBC Election website and it is quite possible for Labour to come third across the country but still have the highest number of seats! They can't quite maintain an overall majority if they poll less than the LibDems and Tories, but it's close. Something to do with lower turn-outs in Labour seats and smaller constituencies in Wales and Scotland I believe.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by ken:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
If you split up however, the non-working parent does become entitled to significantly higher levels of benefit.
When my wife left me for another man and I had to move out my disposable income fell by well over five hundred pounds a month. So I am pretty bloody sure you are talking nonsense.
Were you a non-working parent though?
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Spawn:
quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
Spawn,
Whilst you may have a point about the Mail's misgivings about Cameron, it is ridiculous in the extreme not to acknowledge the extreme dishonesty of Mail reporting - all in order to serve a specific agenda. There are countless examples but here's a short article from an author I trust Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics
AFZ
No I don't think there is anything intrinsic about the Daily Mail's reporting that makes it worse than other newspapers. The Daily Mail is a kneejerk target of scorn by people who seldom or never read it, but its driving assumptions and cultural standpoint are simply rather alien to those who find it most offensive.
Agreed; it's not worse than the Grauniad from the other side of the socio-political spectrum.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
OK, RadicalWhig - now I can reply properly.
Your objections, in essence, can be reduced to the presumption that the nationalists speak best for Scotland, and justice therefore dictates that they be heard at the debate in a particular way. I was going to respond to you point-by-point, but that would result in too long-winded a post.
Basically, my point is that this is a Westminster election held across the UK, not four separate elections. The purpose of the debates being to put the leaders of the strongest parties head-to-head, it was quite proper to exclude the leader of any party incapable of winning it.
That is one reason for excluding the SNP, and I don't think I need to add to it. But then there is the additional point you raise, ie, that the Scots have the right to be governed as they see best, and therefore their voice should be heard at the debates. But this is quite obviously false for the following reasons.
Firstly, it seems rather obvious to point out that one of the participants was Scottish, and secondly, quite clear that it is restrictive to say that only the SNP can speak for Scotland. More pertinently, however, it is strange to say that the presence of the SNP on the panel was necessary for Scots to be properly represented. The audience would be a more appropriate place for that, rather than amongst the people pitching for their votes.
Furthermore, Alex Salmond himself has said that he does not wish to influence how English votes are cast. Why then, would he, or any other SNP politician want to be on the panel?
Your next slew of points are basically to do with the fact that the current system is unfair. Be that as it may, Scotland is still part of it for this election. The only really relevant point you raise is the following, and I quote it for clarity:-
I said:-
quote:
Once again, however, the SNP, Plaid Cymru (and Mebyon Kernow) have ruled this out of being a relevant issue for the leaders' debate because they cannot form a government at Westminster that will achieve it. This would have been different had the Welsh and Scottish nationalists allied themselves with an English equivalent. However, they haven't...
and you responded:-
quote:
By your argument, the SNP can't get independence for Scotland unless they can first win a majority in the UK Parliament by winning lots of English seats. That's the best catch-22 yet.
Not at all. I have yet to be told why the SNP chose not to ally with any English nationalist / separatist party over the border. They have only allied with Plaid Cymru. Perhaps English separatists are, somehow, dirty. At any rate, the break-up of the UK seems rather obviously a matter for the whole of the UK, but whether it is or isn't is not an issue to be decided by this election.
The only other point that I understand you to raise is that the SNP should be included because of its disproportionate regional support, ie, it should be distinguished from, say, UKIP because it polls heavily in Scotland (as it happens, the Lib Dems outpolled the SNP in 2005). What this amounts to is that Scotland should be preferentially to from other areas where there is a regional variation, and / or parties with a strong regional support should be favoured over those who receive as many votes over a greater area. This doesn't make any sense without begging the question.
Additionally, you accuse me of having my cake and eating it:-
quote:
Way One: The SNP aren't significant because they will not form a government at Westminster.
Way Two: Westminster is of paramount importance, even in devolved countries, because it can change the terms of devolution.
If the second of these is true (which it is) then the SNP, who have a pretty strong view on Scotland's future, ought to be fairly represented, even if they will not form the next Government. Likewise Plaid Cymru should have a fair say in Wales.
It's no good using comments like 'fairly represented' because it allows you to suggest that my argument is unfair, simply because it disagrees with yours.
In any event, it falls into the same fallacy of assuming Scottish representation to mean an SNP politician on the panel rather than Scots on the audience.
The SNP are a Scottish party, campaigning on Scottish issues for Scottish votes. Plaid Cymru are identical for Wales. The appropriate solution is to have a debate amongst the party leaders in those places, rather than the inelegant (and I think more unfair) solution of lumping them in with Clegg, Brown and Cameron.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Carys:
It is unfair to UKIP and the Greens, but they won no seats in the last General Election. Plaid and the SNP did. Thus it is arguably more unfair to Plaid and the SNP. But having said that if you were to limit it to those who already had seats, it could be seen as keeping the Westminster club closed.
Basically, the concept is flawed!
I am inclined to agree with this
quote:
Perhaps. But this is an attitude Plaid is challenging. And then there is the opinion of the Independent Columnist who cited Plaid's 3MPs as having had more influence in the last Parliament than all of the LibDems put together!
A bold claim, given Vince Cable's efforts in the last year.
quote:
The big problem is that under the current constituntional settlement Westminster functions both as the English Parliament and as the UK. Then because of the media bias to England (well London!) and the large population of England means that all to frequently matters that only affect England are talked about as though they affected the whole UK.
I can see your point, although I did notice the presenter of the first debate noting that certain matters were devolved, when the discussion moved onto that point. Doesn't that seem the best solution?
quote:
The broadcasters ought to have been able to come up with a system that dealt with this issues. BBC and ITV have regions and so a debate on matters that are devolved could have been broadcast by them in England only (with the major parties in England, however defined). Then debates with representation from all major parties could have been broadcast on non-devolved issues. Admittedly there are issues in that Criminal Justice (for example) is devolved in Scotland but not in Wales). Northern Ireland gets its own debates because it basically (ignoring the Conservative UUP pact) has entirely separate parties.
I think the best solution is for Wales and Scotland to have its own equivalent debates. There is a certain asymmetry here, as England wouldn't have one - but that merely reflects devolution itself.
quote:
That and the fact that certain matters are not devolved/reserved. Defence is an example of this and here Plaid and the SNP oppose any replacement of Trident unlike Labour and Tories (pro like for like replacement) and LibDems (pro some sort of replacement but not like for like IIRC).
Carys
Indeed, but it doesn't follow that PC and the SNP should be heard on those specific matters unless they should be heard generally.
Posted by Yorick (# 12169) on
:
Well, I'm gonna cut out my MP, and vote for myself.
Posted by Angloid (# 159) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
No, it's worse than that; the present arrangement of constituencies offers the prospect of Labour getting the third highest number of votes but the most seats; i.e. more seats and less votes than both Tories AND Lib Dems. In 1974 they had more seats but less votes than the Tories in the February election, but were allowed to get away with becoming the government.
Can anyone explain in words of one syllable, why in the light of this, Cameron is so set against PR?
[relevant pedantic tangent] 'less' votes are presumably those for the Tories in Labour safe seats, and vice versa. In the above context you mean 'fewer', surely? [/relevant pedantic tangent]
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Angloid:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
No, it's worse than that; the present arrangement of constituencies offers the prospect of Labour getting the third highest number of votes but the most seats; i.e. more seats and less votes than both Tories AND Lib Dems. In 1974 they had more seats but less votes than the Tories in the February election, but were allowed to get away with becoming the government.
Can anyone explain in words of one syllable, why in the light of this, Cameron is so set against PR?
[relevant pedantic tangent] 'less' votes are presumably those for the Tories in Labour safe seats, and vice versa. In the above context you mean 'fewer', surely? [/relevant pedantic tangent]
<my itals> No one party would ever again have an outright majority in the House of Commons. Party power would be reduced.
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on
:
Two reasons, I think.
Firstly, the Tories see themselves as 'the natural party of government'. It's only us uppity voters that are denying them their true birthright, and once we see sense, they can have their 1000 year reign.
Secondly, Cameron blocked (along with Labour) every attempt to reform the voting system during the last parliament. He can hardly volte face now, when it looks like the very system he champions will deny him victory.
And on the third hand, he's probably worried that there are more than enough people in the country who would vote Anything But Tory. Under something like STV in a single member constituency, the Tories could lose all their seats where they don't get 50% of the first preference votes.
YMMV
Posted by Spawn (# 4867) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
Two reasons, I think.
Firstly, the Tories see themselves as 'the natural party of government'. It's only us uppity voters that are denying them their true birthright, and once we see sense, they can have their 1000 year reign.
I recognise you're being facetious rather than making a serious point but I'll respond. There is a genuine principle involved here. The fact is that both Labour and Conservative currently believe (and I tend to agree with them) that a two-party system remains the prevailing model. Labour's conversion to electoral reform is clearly a fairly cynical tactic rather than a genuine conversion given the fact that Brown has blocked such policy change every step of the way. I suspect that if it were proved by the final election results that we are in a multi-party situation then the Conservatives may have to look again at their opposition to all but the most limited electoral reform.
As it is Libdem popularity is showing signs of being shortlived the more people are exposed to their flaky policies, opportunism and conniving bitchiness. In my experience, at least in local politics they tend to be the 'nasty' party.
I think the election results will surprise us in 10-days-time.
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Were you a non-working parent though? [/QB][/QUOTE]
Neither are most single parents.
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Spawn:
No I don't think there is anything intrinsic about the Daily Mail's reporting that makes it worse than other newspapers. The Daily Mail is a kneejerk target of scorn by people who seldom or never read it, but its driving assumptions and cultural standpoint are simply rather alien to those who find it most offensive.
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Agreed; it's not worse than the Grauniad from the other side of the socio-political spectrum.
Matt, do you seriously believe this? Really?
For the record, I do read the Mail most days and it is in many ways incomparable to any other paper. You could reasonably claim that the Guardian was comparable with the Telegraph. I don't object to the Telegraph - I don't agree with thier political perspective but that's fine. The problem with the Wail is it's constant (probably cynical) insidious falsehoods in pursuit of its agenda. For the record, here's another example: Comment on Daily Mail Article "NHS Betrays 20,000 Cancer Patients"
Furthermore, it's not just me that says the Mail is dishonest, the PCC has some interesting statistics. Tabloid Watch Article on PCC Statistics
Which is even more surprising when you reflect on the fact that Paul Dacre holds office within the
PCC.
So please, let us not pretend that the Mail is just a right-wing-Guardian.
AFZ
Posted by Rosa Winkel (# 11424) on
:
Labour are not recent converts to changing the voting system, as anyone who's voted in the EU or Welsh Assembly elections can tell you.
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't [in reply to what I said about the Daily Mail
I think you're in danger of getting into tin foil hat territory here.
Tin-foil hat territory? It wasn't me that wrote the headline How using Facebook could raise your risk of cancer!!!! Nor previous articles claiming that being left-handed, bubble bath, calcium, candles, chocolate, colds, curry, hair dye, menstruation AND the menopause AND hormone replacement therapy (so you just can't win even if you are a woman), mouthwash, oral sex, sex, soup, talcum powder, tea, the Internet, vitamin E, work AND retirement AND unemployment (so you can't win even if you aren't a woman, Prince Charles, and Worcester Sauce all cause cancer.
Nor me who embroiled the Daily Mail in a years-long scaremongering campaign of obfuscation and innuendo about Autism and vaccinations. That paper is at the heart of tinfoil hat territory. Don't just take my word for it - look them up in Ben Goldacre's "Bad Science" blog or on Language Log (they also have it in for the BBC's crap science reporting, just in case you think I am biased
quote:
Nor am I talking about outright lies - though in the final week the Mail may well knowingly print lies on the front page - they have often done it before - but they are the only British paper with a big history of that.
Were you caught out by the Daily Mail at some point in your life? You seem to have something personal against them. I don't care for the Mail, but they don't have the history of altering photographs to create stories, which the Sun and the Mirror have. .[/QB][/QUOTE]
The Mail does have a well-documented history of outright falsehood, going back decades. It is plainly true that they are more likely to use their news reporting for propaganda than the other papers are..
My little rant wasn't really about that though , that was just an aside - I was complaining that ALL the British papers are partisan and they ALL indulge in filtering and manipulating the news to support their favoured parties
quote:
Originally posted by Spawn:
No I don't think there is anything intrinsic about the Daily Mail's reporting that makes it worse than other newspapers. The Daily Mail is a kneejerk target of scorn by people who seldom or never read it, but its driving assumptions and cultural standpoint are simply rather alien to those who find it most offensive.
This is not what I'm talking about at all. One of the reasons the Mail is worse than the other papers is precisely because it is, on the whole, a good paper. Its visible cultural assumptions are pretty much those of the southern English middle class and really not that far from those of the the Guardian and their readership has more in common than you might suppose. (Guardian readers may not read the Mail much but their aunts do). Its mostly a pretty good paper (a very good paper by British tabloid standards, which is perhaps not hard) which makes its political bias so potentially harmful. No-one much takes the Sun or the News of the World seriously as a source of in-depth political news. Not even Sun-readers. Especially Sun-readers. The Mail is a much weightier, and mostly much worthier, paper (as well as being much more interesting to read for anyone who has more than a 15 minute fag break to read it in) so its political bias can more easily sneak in under the radar.
Which is the real point. Newspapers and broadcast media do not (on the whole) influence politics by telling people who to vote for. Voters aren't that stupid. Nor by telling lies or by smear campaigns (though that doesn't stop them trying sometimes and the Mail is usually worse than the others). They do it by deciding what counts as news, by trying to set the agenda.
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Agreed; it's not worse than the Grauniad from the other side of the socio-political spectrum.
Matt, if you really believe that then I have a bridge to sell you.
Its not a simple left-right thing. Nor a cultural tabloid vs. "serious" paper thing.The Sun and the News of the World have both supported Labour on occasions. Neither is as egregiously dishonest as the Mail so often is. Though both have pushed the boat out a bit, as has the Mirror. The Telegraph is a far more Tory paper than the Times but it has also (in recent years) been far more honest and neutral in its reporting - on the whole, like the Guardian it manages to keep its political bias to the comment pages, and out of the news pages. As, on the whole, do all the broadcast media, because (unlike newspapers) they have a legal obligation to be fair.
And its not a matter of two equal "sides" either - the British press as a whole is heavily biased towards the Tories and has been for over a century.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
quote:
Originally posted by Spawn:
No I don't think there is anything intrinsic about the Daily Mail's reporting that makes it worse than other newspapers. The Daily Mail is a kneejerk target of scorn by people who seldom or never read it, but its driving assumptions and cultural standpoint are simply rather alien to those who find it most offensive.
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Agreed; it's not worse than the Grauniad from the other side of the socio-political spectrum.
Matt, do you seriously believe this? Really?
So please, let us not pretend that the Mail is just a right-wing-Guardian.
AFZ
Maybe it looks that way from the liberal-leftist perspective, but most of the people I know get the Mail because they agree with it, by and large, and have similar views of the Guardian as you do to the Mail. Are these people thick, dishonest, or raving nutters? Not really; most of them are reasonably successful (at least until the recession) business people with university degrees. I would say that Telegraph = Independent is more accurate.
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Maybe it looks that way from the liberal-leftist perspective, but most of the people I know get the Mail because they agree with it, by and large, and have similar views of the Guardian as you do to the Mail. Are these people thick, dishonest, or raving nutters? Not really; most of them are reasonably successful (at least until the recession) business people with university degrees. I would say that Telegraph = Independent is more accurate.
Oh dear Matt. Have you read any of my links?
What Ken said.
AFZ
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Maybe it looks that way from the liberal-leftist perspective, but most of the people I know get the Mail because they agree with it, by and large, and have similar views of the Guardian as you do to the Mail. Are these people thick, dishonest, or raving nutters? Not really; most of them are reasonably successful (at least until the recession) business people with university degrees. I would say that Telegraph = Independent is more accurate.
I doubt that your friends are thick, dishonest or nutters, raving or otherwise. I would suggest that they, like most of us, like to be confirmed in our prejudices (like me apropos golfers, drivers of silver German cars and, yes, Daily Mail readers) but the Daily Mail itself has a long and dishonourable history, going right back to pre-Great War jingoism and the Zinoviev letter, a deliberate forgery calculated to bring down the first Labour government.
Your friends aren't dishonest but the Daily Mail is, was and will be.
Posted by leo (# 1458) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by leo:
[qb] In the Gay Times interview, to which you refer, Mr Cameron asked for filming to be stopped because he was giving a print interview and a TV interview at the same time. As I understand it, the two really progress in different ways and doing both at the same time is difficult.
His stumbling came when he was asked about a Lithuanian law on teaching in schools. I would suggest that this measure isn't really at the top of any British voter's agenda.
I have now got hold of the text of the interview. It was made clear 10 days before the interview date that they wanted to film it. The interview with Gordon Brown was also filmed. David Cameron explained that he found it difficult giving answers for a magazine interview which was also being filmed.
It wasn’t just the Lithuania question. Cameron was nervous and ignorant throughout. For example (I = Interviewer, DC = David Cameron)
His ignorance about IVF issues:
DC I haven’t looked recently at the whole legal framework for IVF, but I mean I haven’t — we haven’t got any plans to change it……You see I haven’t — I’m not an expert on, on IVF issues. …..Well look, 1 mean I don’t. I haven’t. You know I haven’t got any. What can I say? Well I can only answer the question the way I can.
On his dogy allies in Europe:
I The fact that you’ve aligned yourself with particular parties in the European parliament. Some parties which some people perceive to be anti-Semitic and anti-gay. Today a law comes in force in Lithuanian which has been described as their Section 28. It’s been condemned by Amnesty International….
DC I don’t know about that particular vote…..And of course we would never ally with I parties whose views stepped beyond the pale…..Um, well I don’t — I mean the trouble is you’re — I mean I’ll have to go back and look at this particular — this particular law. . Sorry it’s not a very good answer, I’ll have to go land look at this particular vote in the European parliament.
About civil partnerships in places of worship:
DC I do, I do. Do you know — can we stop for a second? I really — I really want to answer these questions. I’m really — either can we do a television interview or can we do a press interview? I’m finding — I’d almost like to start completely from scratch…..As I understand it there is some very heavyweight legal advice that says there are some problems, which is if you had a permissive piece of legislation that basically said, if a religious organisation, like the Quakers, or others (want to do it, would that eventually lead to all churches through the legal process being compelled to have civil partnerships even if they didn’t want it? So there’s a problem. I think it’s very good the debate is taking place…. No of course it doesn’t but the question is whether the heavyweight legal advice is that although the amendment doesn’t compel, through legal cases it could become compulsory. I think there’s more debate and discussion needs to be had before taking this step.
Posted by Alicïa (# 7668) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Think²:
I think the specific question was if labour had the mps but not the vote share.
He hasn't said he won't work with Labour, just hinted that he wouldn't work with Gordon Brown in that specific scenario (of Labour coming 3rd in the popular vote) because the usual convention is for the Prime Minister to stay.
In an interview today, he has been a bit clearer on the subject.
quote:
Originally posted by Nick Clegg via the Independent:
"I think, if Labour do come third in terms of the number of votes cast, then people would find it inexplicable that Gordon Brown himself could carry on as Prime Minister, which is what the old convention would dictate."
"As for who I'd work with, I've been very clear - much clearer than David Cameron and Gordon Brown - that I will work with anyone, I will work with a man from the moon, I don't care, with anyone who can deliver the greater fairness that I think people want."
not Gordon Brown?
he said: "I don't think Gordon Brown - and I've got nothing personal about him - I just don't think the British people would accept that he could carry on as Prime Minister, which is what the convention of old politics dictates when, or rather if, he were to lose the election in such spectacular style."
alternative Labour figures such as Alan Johnson or David Miliband?
"I will seek with whomever else to deliver those big changes that I want, in the way the economy is run, the way the tax system works, the way our education system works and, of course, cleaning up politics from top to toe."
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
His ignorance about IVF issues:
DC I haven’t looked recently at the whole legal framework for IVF, but I mean I haven’t — we haven’t got any plans to change it……You see I haven’t — I’m not an expert on, on IVF issues. …..Well look, 1 mean I don’t. I haven’t. You know I haven’t got any. What can I say? Well I can only answer the question the way I can.
The party doesn't have any specific policies about IVF, other than "keep things as they are". Is that a problem for you?
They probably don't have any policies about planning permission for people to put up a new conservatory either. Would you regard it as "ignorance" if someone randomly came up with a question about that key issue and Cameron didn't have an answer immediately to hand? Yes, you probably would.
Of course, Gordon Brown can answer any question on any subject with absolute authority due to his superheroic intellect and knowledge of every single thing there is to know. That's why he's doing so well in the televised debates. Oh, wait...
quote:
On his dogy allies in Europe:
I The fact that you’ve aligned yourself with particular parties in the European parliament. Some parties which some people perceive to be anti-Semitic and anti-gay. Today a law comes in force in Lithuanian which has been described as their Section 28. It’s been condemned by Amnesty International….
DC I don’t know about that particular vote…..And of course we would never ally with I parties whose views stepped beyond the pale…..Um, well I don’t — I mean the trouble is you’re — I mean I’ll have to go back and look at this particular — this particular law. . Sorry it’s not a very good answer, I’ll have to go land look at this particular vote in the European parliament.
Some random, no-mark, irrelevant party from a desolate backwater of Europe comes up with a half-baked law and you expect Cameron to know all about it? I'd be surprised if anyone outside Lithuania knows about it, muck-raking journalists aside.
Of course, every single party in the same European alliance as Labour is completely above reproach.
quote:
About civil partnerships in places of worship:
DC I do, I do. Do you know — can we stop for a second? I really — I really want to answer these questions. I’m really — either can we do a television interview or can we do a press interview? I’m finding — I’d almost like to start completely from scratch…..
OK, so he's having some problems with the format. Ooh, how terrible he is.
Of course, Gordon Brown never struggles under any circumstances - he's always prefectly on message and unflustered no matter how many people are deliberately trying to trip him up.
quote:
continues...
As I understand it there is some very heavyweight legal advice that says there are some problems, which is if you had a permissive piece of legislation that basically said, if a religious organisation, like the Quakers, or others (want to do it, would that eventually lead to all churches through the legal process being compelled to have civil partnerships even if they didn’t want it? So there’s a problem. I think it’s very good the debate is taking place…. No of course it doesn’t but the question is whether the heavyweight legal advice is that although the amendment doesn’t compel, through legal cases it could become compulsory. I think there’s more debate and discussion needs to be had before taking this step.
If this is the actual transcript of the interview, I don't think transcriber was doing a very good job. Where is the question he's answering with "No of course it it doesn't"?
Beyond that, what exactly is so wrong with saying that there could be problems and it's good that the debate is happening?
Posted by Rosa Winkel (# 11424) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Some random, no-mark, irrelevant party from a desolate backwater of Europe comes up with a half-baked law and you expect Cameron to know all about it?
What have you Tories got against Lithuania? I mean, Cameron pissed them off as well.
I'd expect a leader to be careful about who he is allies with, myself. I mean, Ken Livingston rightly got all sorts of bother for his homophobic friends.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Rosa Winkel:
What have you Tories got against Lithuania?
Nothing. It's not important enough to bother holding grudges against.
Posted by St. Punk the Pious (# 683) on
:
Meanwhile, Pepa Pig is not a pinko.
Posted by Og: Thread Killer (# 3200) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
... the present arrangement of constituencies offers the prospect of Labour getting the third highest number of votes but the most seats; i.e. more seats and less votes than both Tories AND Lib Dems. In 1974 they had more seats but less votes than the Tories in the February election, but were allowed to get away with becoming the government. Clegg seems to have decided he won't tolerate a repeat of that - at least with Gordo as PM, as a precise reading of his comments suggests that he might allow a Labour PM other than Gordo.
Um....I thought you had a parliamentary democracy over there still?
You know...where they elect MP's that decide who is going to be the PM?
Since when did ya'll move to a republican system based on % of the total vote? I must have missed that switch.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
It is likely that PR would transform voting patterns in Britain. It would cause more than simply requiring coalition governments.
An example from NZ, which has a Westminster parliamentary system, and which adopted PR in the 1990s. Prior to its introduction, there were two main parties: Labour and National, plus a third smaller party, Social Credit. Post introduction of PR, all governments have been formed in the main by those two main parties with one or more minor parties, either by formal coalition, or agreements to supply.
The big losers, interestingly enough, were Social Credit, who no longer exist. Approximately three parties vie for third place: the Greens, NZ First (a nationalist party) United Future (family values) and ACT (free market libertarians).
What this suggests is that the Lib Dems have the most to lose from PR, not the most to gain. PR might militate against them at Westminster elections, but the playing field is level insofar that if they were to poll +40%, they would be about as likely to be able to form a government as Labour or the Tories.
Furthermore, barring a complete meltdown, the Lib Dems' position as third party in British politics is assured: there might be a sea between the Lib Dems and the biggest two, but there is an ocean between the Lib Dems and, for example, the Greens and UKIP. Under PR, these latter two parties could outflank the Lib Dems and cut into their vote as has happened at, for example, European elections. It is also worth noting that the Lib Dem vote has not risen in Welsh or Scottish elections.
quote:
Originally posted by Spawn:
As it is Libdem popularity is showing signs of being shortlived the more people are exposed to their flaky policies, opportunism and conniving bitchiness. In my experience, at least in local politics they tend to be the 'nasty' party.
I think the election results will surprise us in 10-days-time.
We can quibble about the details, but in the polls they remain at about 30%.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
Just to add another observation based upon NZ's system.
Now, I'm no fan of PR, but Cameron's blather about a hung parliament resulting in paralysis is ridiculous scaremongering. Every parliament in NZ since the mid 1990s has been 'hung', but the country has had sufficiently stable government in every one of those years. I don't quite see what Cameron's reasons are for believing that the situation in Britain would be any different. Down here, it is not true, for example, that smaller parties hold the larger parties to ransom. Rather, politicians behave sensibly in negotiating varied agreements ranging from outright coalition to agreements to support on certain issues. As a Guardian columnist rightly pointed out, Cameron's comments reflect poorly on his abilities as a negotiator.
On another subject: can anyone provide me with any details as to the SNP's court action today?
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
We can quibble about the details, but in the polls they remain at about 30%.
I don't actually believe they will get 30%.
It will be ground-breaking if they do.
It will be embarrassing for the pollsters if they don't. They got the 1992 election wrong and changed their methods to try and stop it happening again.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
We can quibble about the details, but in the polls they remain at about 30%.
I don't actually believe they will get 30%.
It will be ground-breaking if they do.
It will be embarrassing for the pollsters if they don't. They got the 1992 election wrong and changed their methods to try and stop it happening again.
It already seems to be going that way in the opinion polls and, even if the third leaders debate goes well for Nick Clegg, the Tory vote is more likely to turn out - this is problem with polls: the pollsters come to you but on the day people have to go to the voting booths.
I reckon it will end up 38% Tory, 32% Labour and the Lib Dems around 22%, which is where the latter were in 2005 but with fewer seats! That, according to the BBC's number cruncher, puts the Tories and Labour neck-and-neck, with Lib Dems potentially a partner with either in a coalition government.
Posted by leo (# 1458) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
Whatever they say about their new idea, they are going to allow people to take over schools without any prior experience - so fundamentalist creationists can indoctrinate children.
One imagines some form of national curriculum will still apply.
I have just returned from a meeting with my untion chief secretary who asked Michael Gove about this. Gove's response was 'They can follow whatever curriculum they want'. So they can choose to do Christian RE without any reference to other religions - so much for social cohesion.
He also said that they are going to introduce a new national curriculum in 50 days, without consultation nor further change, that well EXCLUDE art, dance, creativity and vocational subjects.
Posted by leo (# 1458) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by Rosa Winkel:
What have you Tories got against Lithuania?
Nothing. It's not important enough to bother holding grudges against.
Typical Tory attitude towards:
a) Europe
b) Human rights
i.e. they're not important.
The latter is the reason why I don't think any Christian can support the Tories without leaving his/her faith entirely out of the equation.
[ 27. April 2010, 20:43: Message edited by: leo ]
Posted by leo (# 1458) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
His ignorance about IVF issues:
DC I haven’t looked recently at the whole legal framework for IVF, but I mean I haven’t — we haven’t got any plans to change it……You see I haven’t — I’m not an expert on, on IVF issues. …..Well look, 1 mean I don’t. I haven’t. You know I haven’t got any. What can I say? Well I can only answer the question the way I can.
The party doesn't have any specific policies about IVF, other than "keep things as they are". Is that a problem for you?
They probably don't have any policies about planning permission for people to put up a new conservatory either. Would you regard it as "ignorance" if someone randomly came up with a question about that key issue and Cameron didn't have an answer immediately to hand? Yes, you probably would.
Of course, Gordon Brown can answer any question on any subject with absolute authority due to his superheroic intellect and knowledge of every single thing there is to know. That's why he's doing so well in the televised debates. Oh, wait...
To equate IVF with conservatory issues shows how little you know of or care for Christian ethical concerns.
Gordon Brown has statistics at his fingertips in those debates whereas Cameron makes uncosted promises which he cannot afford to keep.
[ 27. April 2010, 20:46: Message edited by: leo ]
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
He also said that they are going to introduce a new national curriculum in 50 days, without consultation nor further change, that well EXCLUDE art, dance, creativity and vocational subjects.
So the national curriculum is to be cut back to what it should be - a minimal core on which the professionals / local schools can build appropriately? If the Conservatives have a big idea this election, it is to leave the detail to the people on the ground, not micromanage from Whitehall. This sounds like an encouraging example of precisely that policy in action.
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
The latter is the reason why I don't think any Christian can support the Tories without leaving his/her faith entirely out of the equation.
The reality is that the Tories will probably get more votes from active churchgoers than they will from the population at large, and more than any other party.
Posted by Spawn (# 4867) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
The latter is the reason why I don't think any Christian can support the Tories without leaving his/her faith entirely out of the equation.
Hang on a second. I don't see how human rights are at stake in this General Election - though it would be good to see politicians emphasising the other side of the equation 'responsibilities' and also having a serious look at how we negotiate the collision of competing rights.
Your remark about Christians voting Conservative is frankly bizarre. The fact is that unless you see the Bible as some sort of party political manifesto you don't have a leg to stand on.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
A lot of leo's bile suggests that he's been out in the spring sunshine for too long. I don't really understand his thing about IVF, though. Is his complaint that the Conservative party isn't funding it for certain people?
I've never really thought that people have the right to a child and certainly don't have a right for the state to help them have a child. A lot of people may well disagree with that view but I don't see how a belief that the state shouldn't pay for IVF is 'Christian' or 'un-Christian'.
Posted by Spawn (# 4867) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
A lot of people may well disagree with that view but I don't see how a belief that the state shouldn't pay for IVF is 'Christian' or 'un-Christian'.
There are lots of Christians who seem to believe that the State is the 'good samaritan', or that the best way to show love of your neighbour, or care for the needs of the poor and oppressed is through the public sector. Broadly speaking, Conservatives will agree that the state is a safety net for those who hit hard times, but does not replace taking care of your own family and community, or using your own talents for individual betterment and encouraging a society of 'good samaritans' through voluntarism, giving and acts of caring. It's a shame that David Camneron hasn't been banging on about the 'big society' for long enough for people to understand the concept, but it is what conservative philosophy is all about.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
We can quibble about the details, but in the polls they remain at about 30%.
I don't actually believe they will get 30%.
It will be ground-breaking if they do.
It will be embarrassing for the pollsters if they don't. They got the 1992 election wrong and changed their methods to try and stop it happening again.
It already seems to be going that way in the opinion polls and, even if the third leaders debate goes well for Nick Clegg, the Tory vote is more likely to turn out - this is problem with polls: the pollsters come to you but on the day people have to go to the voting booths.
I reckon it will end up 38% Tory, 32% Labour and the Lib Dems around 22%, which is where the latter were in 2005 but with fewer seats! That, according to the BBC's number cruncher, puts the Tories and Labour neck-and-neck, with Lib Dems potentially a partner with either in a coalition government.
First, recent polls indicate that Lib Dem support is stablising at 29-30%, in other words, exactly where they were after the first debate.
See: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention
Second, while polls (most famously in the 1992 election) have sometimes underestimated Tory support, they have not overestimated Lib Dem support. In 2005, for example, they received half a percent of votes above the exit poll.
Third, support for the Lib Dems tends to increase during election campaigns. They went into the 1997 campaign on 9%. It would be unusual for their vote to fall back close to 20%, which is what it was when the election was called.
In short, the Lib Dems' support appears to be quite robust.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
Meanwhile, the Institute of Fiscal Studies has reminded the Big Three of the elephant in the drawing room of the massive budget deficit and the fact that no-one so far has come totally clean about what they will cut...
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Meanwhile, the Institute of Fiscal Studies has reminded the Big Three of the elephant in the drawing room of the massive budget deficit and the fact that no-one so far has come totally clean about what they will cut...
You're surprised?
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
But surely politicians should lead the public on such issues not the other way round...?
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by Rosa Winkel:
What have you Tories got against Lithuania?
Nothing. It's not important enough to bother holding grudges against.
Typical Tory attitude towards:
a) Europe
b) Human rights
i.e. they're not important.
Typical Labour spin. I said nothing about Europe and nothing about human rights, but spin, spin and spin again until it looks like I did.
It's pathological lies and spin like this that are why I don't think anybody should trust Labour with running a tombola stall, never mind the country.
quote:
The latter is the reason why I don't think any Christian can support the Tories without leaving his/her faith entirely out of the equation.
Since the latter is a fabrication that you have created, it follows that there is no reason any Christian shouldn't vote for the party that advocates community, society, charity and public involvement in service provision over the one that advocates a centralised nanny state directly controlling everything.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
To equate IVF with conservatory issues shows how little you know of or care for Christian ethical concerns.
I'm well aware of such issues. The point is that there is no reason to expect Cameron to be totally clued up on IVF, because it's not something that is important to this election.
The conservatory illustration was intended to show that there are any number of other "issues" that it would be ridiculous to expect the party leaders to be fully clued up on. Though I should have guessed it would be spun and spun until you could use it to imply something bad about me - it's what Labour do.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Meanwhile, the Institute of Fiscal Studies has reminded the Big Three of the elephant in the drawing room of the massive budget deficit and the fact that no-one so far has come totally clean about what they will cut...
Of the three only Labour has much idea of the true state of the economy. The Conservatives and the Lib Dems can see the figures and have had pre-election briefings with the senior civil servants at the Treasury but they will get rather less information from them than Labour have, because of limited time if nothing else.
Whatever happens I expect cuts - but the easy cuts are in capital projects, like shiny kit for the armed forces, the ID card project (already scaled down) and the unified NHS systems. Problems come when you try to reduce things year on year but with something like 2.5 million registered unemployed, many of whom are in receipt of Job Seekers Allowance, Housing Benefit, free prescptions, school meals for their children and much besides, a serious program to create work, not merely jobs, would be welcome.
For a start how about fixing up some of the 840,000 empty homes that exist around Britain? Some will be temporarily vacant, others will be beyond repair but for hundreds of thousands of homes that could house some of the millions on waiting lists this would be useful work, increases the value of assets and is of social benefit. Can an economist tell me why no party has latched onto this - it looks such a great idea?
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
To equate IVF with conservatory issues shows how little you know of or care for Christian ethical concerns.
I'm well aware of such issues.
Actually, I'm going to expand on this.
I'm well aware that some Christians have issues with IVF. Many others do not have any such issues.
The way you state "Christian ethical concerns" in your post implies that every single Christian agrees with you and/or that anyone who disagrees isn't a True Christian. I feel compelled to point out that that is NOT TRUE, lest my initial reply is taken as tacit agreement with the implication.
After all, I don't want to give any more ammunition to the ridiculous campaign to declare that Labour are the only party that a True Christian can ever countenance voting for.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
For a start how about fixing up some of the 840,000 empty homes that exist around Britain? Some will be temporarily vacant, others will be beyond repair but for hundreds of thousands of homes that could house some of the millions on waiting lists this would be useful work, increases the value of assets and is of social benefit. Can an economist tell me why no party has latched onto this - it looks such a great idea?
I'm not an economist, but I imagine a large part of it would be the extra cost. There are loads of things that it would be great to do and that would create (public sector) jobs - high speed rail, housing projects, extra schools and hospitals - but the government needs to cut spending, not increase it!
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
Can an economist tell me why no party has latched onto this - it looks such a great idea?
I suspect because they fall into three categories:
1) Houses which are in the process of being sold
2) Houses where nobody wants to live (e.g. western Newcastle on Tyne)
3) Houses that are awaiting demolition
The underlying assumption of this idea is that someone is acting wholly irrationally by holding onto an empty house despite the fact that its value is declining all the time. Given that few people are so irrational, it's unlikely that these reflect a meaningful source of real opportunity. Where there is such wasted, local authorities do have the power to take control of such houses and rent them out, though it's a power they've seldom exercised; an issue for you to raise with your council candidates, not national.
That said the housing crisis, substantially aggravated by the level of immigration, is one that is another elephant in the room, though one that politicians are even less willing to talk about, requiring as it does large amounts of government expenditure to resolve.
Posted by Angloid (# 159) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
2) Houses where nobody wants to live (e.g. western Newcastle on Tyne)
The two main reasons, ISTM, why 'nobody wants to live' in such areas are [a] shortage of jobs, and [b] the problems of a semi-derelict environment.
[a] is largely a consequence of the overheated south-eastern economy compared to the rest of the country, which it is surely a government's responsibility to try to counteract. [b] would solve itself if people began to move back into such areas.
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
That said the housing crisis, substantially aggravated by the level of immigration, is one that is another elephant in the room, though one that politicians are even less willing to talk about, requiring as it does large amounts of government expenditure to resolve.
Bullshit.
The reason we have a housing crisis is because, as a nation, we have built substantially fewer houses than we need, year after year after year. The reasons for this are several, but amongst which are our tortuous planning regs, rampant nimbyism and blatant profiteering by both builders and landowners.
If you couple this with the fact that if we have a massive housebuilding/renovation scheme, the value of existing properties will go down as the law of supply and demand swings the other way. Tens of thousands of mortgage payers will find themselves in negative equity and will squeal like piggies.
So no, yet another thing immigrants aren't to blame for. The problem is entirely homegrown.
Posted by leo (# 1458) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Spawn:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
The latter is the reason why I don't think any Christian can support the Tories without leaving his/her faith entirely out of the equation.
Hang on a second. I don't see how human rights are at stake in this General Election - though it would be good to see politicians emphasising the other side of the equation 'responsibilities' and also having a serious look at how we negotiate the collision of competing rights.
Your remark about Christians voting Conservative is frankly bizarre. The fact is that unless you see the Bible as some sort of party political manifesto you don't have a leg to stand on.
Not the bible but Christ, whose manifesto was the year of Jubilee - good news to the poor etc.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
For a start how about fixing up some of the 840,000 empty homes that exist around Britain? Some will be temporarily vacant, others will be beyond repair but for hundreds of thousands of homes that could house some of the millions on waiting lists this would be useful work, increases the value of assets and is of social benefit. Can an economist tell me why no party has latched onto this - it looks such a great idea?
I'm not an economist, but I imagine a large part of it would be the extra cost. There are loads of things that it would be great to do and that would create (public sector) jobs - high speed rail, housing projects, extra schools and hospitals - but the government needs to cut spending, not increase it!
My understanding is that it is borrowing that needs to be reduced, not simply spending. If that can be done without direct spending cuts, that is OK. If people move into employment that saves on the welfare budget (which is about £200 billion of a total public sector budget of about £700 billion), brings in NICs and Income tax, enables people to buy things with VAT and excise duty on (booze, tobacco and petrol) and generally gees up the economy.
Yes, I'm advocating getting people off welfare, but not by bullying them or disqualifying them from benefit (which will push some into the black economy, from which the government gets nothing) but in this instance by helping local councils fund the repair and refurbishment work. At the moment these councils cannot set a deficit budget so they find it very difficult to finance projects of any size. If the government were to come up with a scheme under which councils could get hold of the homes, have contractors paid to fix them then collect rent in the future to pay off the funds needed, it would make a difference. There. That is in just one area of the economy.
Ender's Shadow: From looking around Newport there are plenty of empty homes that are in decent order. Many are owned by developers who are waiting for the market to buck up before they lift a finger. A school was built under the hated PFI and the firm that had the contract to build homes on the site of the old school pulled out for much the same reasons. The old Tech College has been empty for twenty years and has had at least three owners who were definitely going to develop it. Same story. Eventually the council slapped on a "fix it or we'll do it for you" order and, lo and behold, some work is now being done. You're right, they aren't irrational, just plain greedy.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
My understanding is that it is borrowing that needs to be reduced, not simply spending. If that can be done without direct spending cuts, that is OK. If people move into employment that saves on the welfare budget (which is about £200 billion of a total public sector budget of about £700 billion), brings in NICs and Income tax, enables people to buy things with VAT and excise duty on (booze, tobacco and petrol) and generally gees up the economy.
If people are moving into private sector employment that is true. But when people move into public sector employment the maths is somewhat different: what the public purse gains through a reduced welfare bill has to be offset against losses through increased wage and NI bills.
On the grounds that even the minimum wage adds up to more than the dole, I suspect that increasing the number of public sector jobs in order to reduce the welfare bill would be completely self-defeating, as the Treasury would be spending more than it was before.
The tangential benefits to the economy (increased spending, more VAT/excise income, etc.) would make up some of the difference, but I have to say that with our current financial situation I don't know if we can afford it.
It would probably be cheaper for the government to promise to buy any renovated houses from the developer at market value, thus achieving the double whammy of stimulating private investment in doing them up (and thus creating new private sector jobs) while at the same time creating a fresh stock of social housing .
Posted by leo (# 1458) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
He also said that they are going to introduce a new national curriculum in 50 days, without consultation nor further change, that well EXCLUDE art, dance, creativity and vocational subjects.
So the national curriculum is to be cut back to what it should be - a minimal core on which the professionals / local schools can build appropriately? If the Conservatives have a big idea this election, it is to leave the detail to the people on the ground, not micromanage from Whitehall. This sounds like an encouraging example of precisely that policy in action.
The national curriculum is an entitlement. Are children not entitled to art, creativity?
As for 'leaving the detail to the people on the ground', that really means abandoning them.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
As for 'leaving the detail to the people on the ground', that really means abandoning them.
So you have no confidence in the head teachers, school governors or local education authorities to do the right thing, only that bureaucrats in London will?
Posted by leo (# 1458) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
quote:
Originally posted by Spawn:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
The latter is the reason why I don't think any Christian can support the Tories without leaving his/her faith entirely out of the equation.
Hang on a second. I don't see how human rights are at stake in this General Election - though it would be good to see politicians emphasising the other side of the equation 'responsibilities' and also having a serious look at how we negotiate the collision of competing rights.
Your remark about Christians voting Conservative is frankly bizarre. The fact is that unless you see the Bible as some sort of party political manifesto you don't have a leg to stand on.
Not the bible but Christ, whose manifesto was the year of Jubilee - good news to the poor etc.
George Lansbury summed it up: Socialism which means love, cooperation and brotherhood in every department of human affairs, is the only outward expression of a Christian's faith. I am firmly convinced that whether they know it or not, all who approve and accept competition and struggle against each other as the means whereby we gain our daily bread, do indeed betray and make of no effect the "will of God."
Posted by Spawn (# 4867) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
Not the bible but Christ, whose manifesto was the year of Jubilee - good news to the poor etc.
You'll have to do better than just sloganising. The year of Jubilee is not a manifesto. It's an important part of the theological resources for informing a Christian conscience on social and political issues. But you can't make it into a manifesto.
Furthermore, I thought the good news was for everyone, including the poor. Given Labour's record on inequality, it's hardly a black and white judgement as to which party's policy actually benefits the very poorest.
Posted by Wesley J (# 6075) on
:
I see that Gordon Brown has spoken his mind and first gained, and then lost one voter. But anyway, she's just 'a bigoted woman'.
<hums Santana's 'Black Magic Woman', strolls off>
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
The national curriculum is an entitlement.
That's a funny way of putting it. I'd have said it was a minimum requirement rather than an exhaustive list.
Posted by Pottage (# 9529) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
The reason we have a housing crisis is because, as a nation, we have built substantially fewer houses than we need, year after year after year.
Not really. We have built substantially fewer houses than are needed in the places where, through population shifts (and immigration as it happens) the demand for housing has become most intense. In principle there is no shortage of housing stock in many parts of the country outside the South East, though in practice there are actual shortages in lots of places. For instance, in many places the housing stock, though available, may be beyond the reach of a substantial number of locals because the local economy is weak and they can't earn enough to be able to afford those properties.
None of the main political parties has failed to analyse this problem correctly, but it isn't easy to fix. In the places where there is a great shortage of housing it is disproportionately costly to develop more. This is not just because the shortage of suitable sites for more building has driven up the land prices. It's also because these areas are already crowded and so to meet realistic standards for new houses to have acceptable public services, highway access and so forth (all of which is policed through the planning system) development requires a lot of additional investment to be acceptable.
The problem is indeed homegrown, albeit that Ender's Shadow is right to make the point that large scale immigration has aggravated it for the obvious reason that immigrants are themselves disproportionately attracted to those same - overcrowded - parts of the country with the greatest existing demand for housing. But it's too simplistic to attribute the problem to greedy landowners, jealous nimbys, rapacious developers and other stereotypical targets from the opinion pages of the Guardian.
Posted by Jane R (# 331) on
:
Marvin the Martian said of the National Curriculum: quote:
I'd have said it was a minimum requirement rather than an exhaustive list.
In principle it is. In practice, because the SATS tests on core subjects are so important for (primary) schools, any subject that isn't specifically in the National Curriculum is in danger of being squeezed out altogether. The increasing research evidence - as reported here , for example - suggests that this would be a Bad Thing, because music, art and other creative subjects can boost learning in other areas too.
Of course, things may be different this time round. But the National Curriculum was originally expanded beyond the original core subjects (English, Maths, Science) to safeguard teaching time for other subjects.
If the Tories are really sincere about wanting to give more power to local teachers, perhaps they should just abolish the National Curriculum entirely and trust teachers and governers to do their jobs properly. I find it difficult to believe that they will do something like that; let's not forget they were the ones who originally introduced it.
Jane R
Posted by St. Punk the Pious (# 683) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Wesley J:
I see that Gordon Brown has spoken his mind and first gained, and then lost one voter. But anyway, she's just 'a bigoted woman'.
<hums Santana's 'Black Magic Woman', strolls off>
Yes, Gordon lets the truth out of the bag: he believes the Leftist meme that if you are concerned about immigration, you are a bigot.
Also, he reveals that he is a jerk. But we already knew that.
Posted by Barnabas62 (# 9110) on
:
Very damaging. Mainly because of the "one thing in public, another in private" effect.
And also stoopid.
I don't think this will blow over - more likely it will be seen as a defining moment. Broon's career looks to me to be in the bin.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Very damaging. Mainly because of the "one thing in public, another in private" effect.
And also stoopid.
I don't think this will blow over - more likely it will be seen as a defining moment. Broon's career looks to me to be in the bin.
Very unfortunate. Brown has been seen in his car with his head in his hands. While it was attached to his body physically I think it may have been severed in political terms. Worst of all, it's probably given the BNP a huge boost right in one of their target areas. I can take the Tories gaining as a result, but if the next opinion polls show "Others: 15%" we'll know what's going on.
Posted by St. Punk the Pious (# 683) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Very damaging. Mainly because of the "one thing in public, another in private" effect.
And also stoopid.
I don't think this will blow over - more likely it will be seen as a defining moment. Broon's career looks to me to be in the bin.
I suspect you are right.
I note that Clegg declines to comment. No doubt because he secretly agrees with Brown that those who question current immigration policies are bigots.
Posted by Wesley J (# 6075) on
:
From the same BBC article as linked above, now expanded:
quote:
The Conservatives said Mr Brown's comments spoke for themselves.
Shadow chancellor George Osborne said: "That's the thing about general elections, they do reveal the truth about people."
I don't believe a word the Tories are saying. I consider them far greater bigots than Labour or possibly LibDem.
Rather a daft leftie than a slick rightie whose smooth words just pull up a smoke screen for what they're really after: their own wealth and benefits. It's Tory tradition. And it should also be noted that the LibDems, with all their shortcomings, are the only party currently in favour of a reform of the electoral system. And, according to news reports, that the Tories are in case of some sort of an alliance with the LibDems most eager indeed to have them abolish all such desires.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
In practice, because the SATS tests on core subjects are so important for (primary) schools, any subject that isn't specifically in the National Curriculum is in danger of being squeezed out altogether.
The answer to that is to abolish (or severely downgrade) SATS, not to rigidly define every single subject that has to be taught in schools.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Wesley J:
I don't believe a word the Tories are saying. I consider them far greater bigots than Labour or possibly LibDem.
Except nobody's saying Labour or Lib Dem are bigots. That's the word the left uses to marginalise anyone that disagrees with it.
Posted by Gildas (# 525) on
:
Funny, I distinctly recall Nick Clegg being described as a Nazi earlier in this thread. Were the Nazis not bigots?
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
As for 'leaving the detail to the people on the ground', that really means abandoning them.
So you have no confidence in the head teachers, school governors or local education authorities to do the right thing, only that bureaucrats in London will?
No, no, no, you've got it wrong: only unaccountable Whitehall bureaucrats know what's right for everyone - didn't you get the memo?
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
quote:
Originally posted by Spawn:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
The latter is the reason why I don't think any Christian can support the Tories without leaving his/her faith entirely out of the equation.
Hang on a second. I don't see how human rights are at stake in this General Election - though it would be good to see politicians emphasising the other side of the equation 'responsibilities' and also having a serious look at how we negotiate the collision of competing rights.
Your remark about Christians voting Conservative is frankly bizarre. The fact is that unless you see the Bible as some sort of party political manifesto you don't have a leg to stand on.
Not the bible but Christ, whose manifesto was the year of Jubilee - good news to the poor etc.
George Lansbury summed it up: Socialism which means love, cooperation and brotherhood in every department of human affairs, is the only outward expression of a Christian's faith. I am firmly convinced that whether they know it or not, all who approve and accept competition and struggle against each other as the means whereby we gain our daily bread, do indeed betray and make of no effect the "will of God."
All laudable virtues, but why should they be arrogated to (primarily) the people who rule us?
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
As for 'leaving the detail to the people on the ground', that really means abandoning them.
So you have no confidence in the head teachers, school governors or local education authorities to do the right thing, only that bureaucrats in London will?
No, no, no, you've got it wrong: only unaccountable Whitehall bureaucrats know what's right for everyone - didn't you get the memo?
I'm being entirely serious here. Thanks to the Parliamentary Select Committees the mandarins, like ministers, have to show up and answer some pretty serious questions from backbench MPs. They don't like it, and they can wriggle all they like but they still have to do it.
So they are accountable, in word and fact.
Posted by Gildas (# 525) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Very damaging. Mainly because of the "one thing in public, another in private" effect.
And also stoopid.
I don't think this will blow over - more likely it will be seen as a defining moment. Broon's career looks to me to be in the bin.
Very unfortunate. Brown has been seen in his car with his head in his hands. While it was attached to his body physically I think it may have been severed in political terms. Worst of all, it's probably given the BNP a huge boost right in one of their target areas. I can take the Tories gaining as a result, but if the next opinion polls show "Others: 15%" we'll know what's going on.
I wouldn't bet on it. The BNP did well in the Euros but everyone knows that people who vote in European elections are hobbyists and weirdos who are out to give the government of the day a bloody nose and not too fastidious about the implement they use. Electing her Brittanic Majesty's Government is a bit different.
Apparently, the lady in question asked our Gordo "where do all those Eastern European immigrants come from?" He's clearly a man who doesn't suffer fools easily, which must be a disadvantage when managing the Parliamentary Labour Party.
Whose bright idea was it to have our Gordon out being the man of the people and meeting the ordinary voters, anyway. Oh, yes Gordon's. His minders must be completely bald from tearing their hair out.
Posted by pete173 (# 4622) on
:
Gordon's stuff at lunchtime was a complete disaster - makes me ashamed of my party. And I think this will play for a good few days of the campaign. Arrogant, bigoted and contemptuous - all the things that politicians in Government are accused of becoming - and Gordon demonstrated them in spades.
Posted by lowlands_boy (# 12497) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Gildas:
Apparently, the lady in question asked our Gordo "where do all those Eastern European immigrants come from?"
Hmmm - I think there's a clue in the question. I'd hazard a guess that most Eastern European immigrants come from Eastern Europe....
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Pottage:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
The reason we have a housing crisis is because, as a nation, we have built substantially fewer houses than we need, year after year after year.
Not really. We have built substantially fewer houses than are needed in the places where, through population shifts (and immigration as it happens) the demand for housing has become most intense. In principle there is no shortage of housing stock in many parts of the country outside the South East, though in practice there are actual shortages in lots of places. For instance, in many places the housing stock, though available, may be beyond the reach of a substantial number of locals because the local economy is weak and they can't earn enough to be able to afford those properties.
Er, okay. According to you, house prices remain high in areas where there is plenty of spare housing and the economy is weak. Whereas house prices are high in areas where there is a high demand for houses and the economy is strong.
You do realise you're talking complete arse, don't you?
I've seen it first hand at both ends of the spectrum: my dad is the chair of planning for his parish council (average house price ~£450,000). He's fought tooth and nail to restrict development inside the village envelope for the past 20 years, but we had a good long chat last time I was down, and he's starting to think the whole strategy was nothing less than a catastrophe in slow motion. Whereas, here I am in the North East, we're losing population. Schools are closing because of falling rolls. House prices here are still well over 3x income - we also have developers sitting on massive land banks and not building.
One thing that would help encourage people north are fast transport links to the south, but in order to do that, they have to go through the south to get to us. Nimby much?
Posted by St. Punk the Pious (# 683) on
:
For the record, Clegg has now commented:
Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg said: 'Everybody in every walk of life will mutter things underneath their breath they wouldn't want people to know about.'
'In an election campaign, you have got to give as good as you get but treat whatever questions you receive with the respect they deserve. I think saying something clearly fairly insulting to the lady in question is not right, it's not right at all.'
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
As for 'leaving the detail to the people on the ground', that really means abandoning them.
So you have no confidence in the head teachers, school governors or local education authorities to do the right thing, only that bureaucrats in London will?
No, no, no, you've got it wrong: only unaccountable Whitehall bureaucrats know what's right for everyone - didn't you get the memo?
I'm being entirely serious here. Thanks to the Parliamentary Select Committees the mandarins, like ministers, have to show up and answer some pretty serious questions from backbench MPs. They don't like it, and they can wriggle all they like but they still have to do it.
So they are accountable, in word and fact.
Point conceded. The debate of local -v- national/central still stands.
Posted by Ricardus (# 8757) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
Typical Tory attitude towards:
a) Europe
b) Human rights
i.e. they're not important.
The latter is the reason why I don't think any Christian can support the Tories without leaving his/her faith entirely out of the equation.
Quite right. Unlike, of course, Labour, whose clear condemnation of the House of Saud is a shining example to us all.
Posted by leo (# 1458) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
In practice, because the SATS tests on core subjects are so important for (primary) schools, any subject that isn't specifically in the National Curriculum is in danger of being squeezed out altogether.
The answer to that is to abolish (or severely downgrade) SATS, not to rigidly define every single subject that has to be taught in schools.
On that we agree.
Posted by leo (# 1458) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
quote:
Originally posted by Spawn:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
The latter is the reason why I don't think any Christian can support the Tories without leaving his/her faith entirely out of the equation.
Hang on a second. I don't see how human rights are at stake in this General Election - though it would be good to see politicians emphasising the other side of the equation 'responsibilities' and also having a serious look at how we negotiate the collision of competing rights.
Your remark about Christians voting Conservative is frankly bizarre. The fact is that unless you see the Bible as some sort of party political manifesto you don't have a leg to stand on.
Not the bible but Christ, whose manifesto was the year of Jubilee - good news to the poor etc.
George Lansbury summed it up: Socialism which means love, cooperation and brotherhood in every department of human affairs, is the only outward expression of a Christian's faith. I am firmly convinced that whether they know it or not, all who approve and accept competition and struggle against each other as the means whereby we gain our daily bread, do indeed betray and make of no effect the "will of God."
All laudable virtues, but why should they be arrogated to (primarily) the people who rule us?
They don't rule us. They govern on our behalf.
Posted by Og: Thread Killer (# 3200) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by St. Punk the Pious:
For the record, Clegg has now commented:
Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg said: 'Everybody in every walk of life will mutter things underneath their breath they wouldn't want people to know about.'
'In an election campaign, you have got to give as good as you get but treat whatever questions you receive with the respect they deserve. I think saying something clearly fairly insulting to the lady in question is not right, it's not right at all.'
Somebody has a good spin team behind them and ain't Brown.
Over here, I'd give it a day until a leftist paper goes after her for something, digging up some dirt...not sure about in the UK but the reputation of the papers there indicates probably a front page expose spread tomorrow?
Posted by leo (# 1458) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
A lot of leo's bile suggests that he's been out in the spring sunshine for too long. I don't really understand his thing about IVF, though. Is his complaint that the Conservative party isn't funding it for certain people?
I've never really thought that people have the right to a child and certainly don't have a right for the state to help them have a child. A lot of people may well disagree with that view but I don't see how a belief that the state shouldn't pay for IVF is 'Christian' or 'un-Christian'.
I was not saying that IVF was a human rights issue.
I cited IVF and human rights as two separate issues.
Posted by Pottage (# 9529) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
Er, okay. According to you, house prices remain high in areas where there is plenty of spare housing and the economy is weak. Whereas house prices are high in areas where there is a high demand for houses and the economy is strong.
You do realise you're talking complete arse, don't you?
I've seen it first hand at both ends of the spectrum: my dad is the chair of planning for his parish council (average house price ~£450,000). He's fought tooth and nail to restrict development inside the village envelope for the past 20 years, but we had a good long chat last time I was down, and he's starting to think the whole strategy was nothing less than a catastrophe in slow motion. Whereas, here I am in the North East, we're losing population. Schools are closing because of falling rolls. House prices here are still well over 3x income - we also have developers sitting on massive land banks and not building.
One thing that would help encourage people north are fast transport links to the south, but in order to do that, they have to go through the south to get to us. Nimby much?
I do talk arse for a living - having been a property lawyer for 25 years I can't really help myself. But I don't necessarily accept that I'm doing so in this case despite the emotive power of your anecdotage.
Perhaps I was a little obscure or took too much for granted.
1. Yes, house prices tend to remain high in places where the economy is strong because lots of people want to live there and that pushes up demand.
2. And yes, house prices can also be high in some places even if the local economy is weak, so long as there's some other reason why lots of people want to live there anyway. That's particularly an issue in rural or other scenic places.
3. But in places where the economy is weak and there's no other reason why lots of people want to live there then house prices tend to fall, or at least to rise more slowly. Houses in those places are harder to sell because there's lower demand and a greater number of them stand empty than in places where the demand for housing is higher. There's little incentive for anyone to build more houses in these places even though there may well be more available land and more capacity in the existing local infrastructure than in places which fall within paragraphs 1 and 2.
4. Looking at the country as a whole there are at least as many places in paragraph 3 as there are in paragraphhs 1 and 2 which is why it was not really accurate to assert that:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
The reason we have a housing crisis is because, as a nation, we have built substantially fewer houses than we need, year after year after year.
What would make a difference to places where the economy is weak is investment in the local economy. It doesn't matter that much how many express trains there are between (say) Sunderland and London. What will make it practicable and attractive for people to live there (and thus do something to even out the demand for and availability of housing units across the country) will be decent jobs in all those places where demand is currently low.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
I'm being entirely serious here. Thanks to the Parliamentary Select Committees the mandarins, like ministers, have to show up and answer some pretty serious questions from backbench MPs. They don't like it, and they can wriggle all they like but they still have to do it.
So they are accountable, in word and fact.
I'm not claiming that they aren't accountable, I'm suggesting that the perspective from Whitehall (or even Westminster) is inevitably imperfect compared with the understanding of the local people. It comes to a question of whether you believe that local government is a means of real accountability or not.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
quote:
Originally posted by Spawn:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
The latter is the reason why I don't think any Christian can support the Tories without leaving his/her faith entirely out of the equation.
Hang on a second. I don't see how human rights are at stake in this General Election - though it would be good to see politicians emphasising the other side of the equation 'responsibilities' and also having a serious look at how we negotiate the collision of competing rights.
Your remark about Christians voting Conservative is frankly bizarre. The fact is that unless you see the Bible as some sort of party political manifesto you don't have a leg to stand on.
Not the bible but Christ, whose manifesto was the year of Jubilee - good news to the poor etc.
George Lansbury summed it up: Socialism which means love, cooperation and brotherhood in every department of human affairs, is the only outward expression of a Christian's faith. I am firmly convinced that whether they know it or not, all who approve and accept competition and struggle against each other as the means whereby we gain our daily bread, do indeed betray and make of no effect the "will of God."
All laudable virtues, but why should they be arrogated to (primarily) the people who rule us?
They don't rule us. They govern on our behalf.
Er...wake up and smell the coffee....
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Pottage:
What would make a difference to places where the economy is weak is investment in the local economy. It doesn't matter that much how many express trains there are between (say) Sunderland and London. What will make it practicable and attractive for people to live there (and thus do something to even out the demand for and availability of housing units across the country) will be decent jobs in all those places where demand is currently low.
The problem is that this has been part of government policy for the last 45 years that I am aware of, and it hasn't worked very well, with a very few exceptions (I have to admit the regeneration of Manchester has been a success...) It's a hard thing to do, and our persistent failure suggests that it may be better to think more radically.
Posted by phil2357 (# 15431) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
They don't rule us. They govern on our behalf.
But the fact still remains that if I give taxation money to a government it is not me who decides what is done with it. I may influence who governs the country through my vote, but the actual decisions about how public money is spent are not made by me. Hence I cannot claim moral responsibility for them.
Or take a different line of reasoning: I live not too far away from a new hospital that is being built. I take it you are saying that we should see this as the government expressing our neighbourly concern for one another on our behalf. OK, but what about the public money spent on the war with Iraq? Are you prepared to take some personal responsibility for that?
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Pottage:
What would make a difference to places where the economy is weak is investment in the local economy. It doesn't matter that much how many express trains there are between (say) Sunderland and London. What will make it practicable and attractive for people to live there (and thus do something to even out the demand for and availability of housing units across the country) will be decent jobs in all those places where demand is currently low.
Two points: firstly, it does matter how many express trains there are between Sunderland and London. Those towns stuck at the end of a branch line, like Sunderland, are at a serious economic disadvantage compared to their neighbours who aren't. Add to that the poor road links north and south from the North East, and we start to see why investment in the region isn't as it ought to be.
Secondly, your sums still don't add up. Unless we build more houses that people want to live in, and lots of them, they will remain unaffordable to most. When me and Mrs Tor bought our gaff back in '92, it cost us 3x Mrs Tor's reasonable salary. Now she's on more than reasonable, the multiplier is 4x, and for someone on an average wage, over 7x. This situation cannot be right, and unless UK government is prepared to subsidise the housing market, the only thing that can rectify the imbalance is more houses to drive the average price down.
Posted by Pottage (# 9529) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
quote:
Originally posted by Pottage:
What would make a difference to places where the economy is weak is investment in the local economy. It doesn't matter that much how many express trains there are between (say) Sunderland and London. What will make it practicable and attractive for people to live there (and thus do something to even out the demand for and availability of housing units across the country) will be decent jobs in all those places where demand is currently low.
The problem is that this has been part of government policy for the last 45 years that I am aware of, and it hasn't worked very well, with a very few exceptions (I have to admit the regeneration of Manchester has been a success...) It's a hard thing to do, and our persistent failure suggests that it may be better to think more radically.
I find it difficult for cultural reasons to say anything nice about Manchester, but I take your point. Some of the post war new towns have also been moderately successful. None of the mainstream parties has failed to appreciate this issue, though they are also prone to blame it on whichever of the soft targets (greedy nimbys, petty local bureaucrats, wicked developers) works best with their spin. But I don't think there's anything especially radical about any of their proposals to address it. Throwing money at the problem isn't an option in these times obviously, but that hasn't always succeeded anyway.
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by St. Punk the Pious:
quote:
Originally posted by Wesley J:
I see that Gordon Brown has spoken his mind and first gained, and then lost one voter. But anyway, she's just 'a bigoted woman'.
<hums Santana's 'Black Magic Woman', strolls off>
Yes, Gordon lets the truth out of the bag: he believes the Leftist meme that if you are concerned about immigration, you are a bigot.
Also, he reveals that he is a jerk. But we already knew that.
You know, having watched The Thick of It, I am astounded at the level of politeness of that. I thought "what a fucking disaster, why did anyone let that stupid bitch anywhere near me" is the sort of thing they all said in cars.
Posted by Jane R (# 331) on
:
Marvin the Martian (re pressure on the National Curriculum) quote:
The answer to that is to abolish (or severely downgrade) SATS, not to rigidly define every single subject that has to be taught in schools.
Well, yes, I agree that would be desirable. Whether the new government will have the self-discipline to back away from micromanaging every aspect of education and abolish the SATS is another matter. They all want power; that's why they're in politics. Giving it up when you don't have to is hard.
Jane R
Posted by Pottage (# 9529) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
Two points: firstly, it does matter how many express trains there are between Sunderland and London. Those towns stuck at the end of a branch line, like Sunderland, are at a serious economic disadvantage compared to their neighbours who aren't. Add to that the poor road links north and south from the North East, and we start to see why investment in the region isn't as it ought to be.
Secondly, your sums still don't add up. Unless we build more houses that people want to live in, and lots of them, they will remain unaffordable to most. When me and Mrs Tor bought our gaff back in '92, it cost us 3x Mrs Tor's reasonable salary. Now she's on more than reasonable, the multiplier is 4x, and for someone on an average wage, over 7x. This situation cannot be right, and unless UK government is prepared to subsidise the housing market, the only thing that can rectify the imbalance is more houses to drive the average price down.
I'm at a disadvantage discussing your personal circumstances in a void, but compared to average figures your situation seems particularly gloomy and perhaps that's why you're so exercised about it. The table in this report for the north east of England (Table 3) shows the ratio of average house prices to average wages in 1992 as 2.7 and having peaked in the mid 2000s (the height of the boom) at 3.9. comparable figures for London (Table 9) were 2.9 and 4.8.
Anyway, just on the principle of those two points:
Much more and better infrastructure - yes that would make it more likely that investors would be willing/able to generate jobs and business in these places and that would increase demand for housing there. Then it would become worthwhile for people to invest in building more of them in such places. And on average doing so would be cheaper than building more homes in the South East (because of the issues around land availability and price, infrastructure pressure and so forth mentioned in my previous post). It's a really big ticket solution though, and accordingly isn't going to be feasible as far into the future as anyone can predict regardless of who wins the election.
It's possible that if you make housing cheap enough by subsidising its development on a huge enough scale in places where it would otherwise be uneconomic (due to inadequate current demand) you could actually generate demand ("build it and they will move here"). If it were to be done by means of public sector development as was done after the War the problem is that there's no budget for it. Private sector developers might be able to do so, but they need to be able to make some money from what they do in order to stay in business and it's hard to see how they would justify building houses speculatively in huge numbers in places where currently demand for housing is low. With a big enough subsidy it might become viable for them to try, but that makes it another big ticket solution of course.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
Pottage, by 'average wage' do you mean an individual person's wage, or average family income?
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on
:
I think we can add the refusal (of successive governments, Labour and Tory) to invest in infrastructure projects that increase the connectivity of the north with the south to my list of complaints.
I'm not suggesting for a moment that taxes should subsidise the house market - the moves on Stamp Duty and 'co-ownership' are blind alleys which both perpetuate and ignore the real problem, which is the disproportionate cost of housing in much of the UK compared with the average wage. I could bang on here about the Tories' council house sell-off that made the situation ten times worse than any amount of immigration, but I'd rather look ahead as to what can be done to solve the problem.
Turning building land over to non-profit housing co-ops, who'd then be able to sell the houses on at a decent price. I've seen figures which suggest the actual cost, minus land, of a three bed-semi with garage is in the region of £70k. That'd be the same whether it was built in Newcastle or Newbury.
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
First, recent polls indicate that Lib Dem support is stablising at 29-30%, in other words, exactly where they were after the first debate.
See: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention
Second, while polls (most famously in the 1992 election) have sometimes underestimated Tory support, they have not overestimated Lib Dem support. In 2005, for example, they received half a percent of votes above the exit poll.
Third, support for the Lib Dems tends to increase during election campaigns. They went into the 1997 campaign on 9%. It would be unusual for their vote to fall back close to 20%, which is what it was when the election was called.
In short, the Lib Dems' support appears to be quite robust.
A lot of their new support is apparently from younger voters, who are less likely to vote in practice. Some of the polling companies adjust for that in their results, others less so.
So that is the main risk to the Lib Dems getting the sort of numbers they have had in their best polls is of getting younger voters out, perhaps for the first time. It can be done, but we won't know until the day itself, because you can't accurate sample for non-sampling errors! And difficult to keep a 'Yes, we can' movement going when third place is still quite likely.
The Lib Dems have had a fantastic campaign, but I am not yet sure they will get the rewards in the real ballot boxes and the actual House of Commons.
Posted by Pottage (# 9529) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
Pottage, by 'average wage' do you mean an individual person's wage, or average family income?
The measure taken by the report I linked to is an average generated from the pre-tax salary (excluding bonuses) of people applying for a mortgage, and the average price they gave for the house they wanted the mortgage for. The information is derived from statistics collected by banks and other lenders. That's the usual measure cited, and because those figures have been collected in the same way for a long time you are able to compare like with like over a long enough period for meaningful trends to emerge.
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
I think we can add the refusal (of successive governments, Labour and Tory) to invest in infrastructure projects that increase the connectivity of the north with the south to my list of complaints.
I'm not suggesting for a moment that taxes should subsidise the house market - the moves on Stamp Duty and 'co-ownership' are blind alleys which both perpetuate and ignore the real problem, which is the disproportionate cost of housing in much of the UK compared with the average wage. I could bang on here about the Tories' council house sell-off that made the situation ten times worse than any amount of immigration, but I'd rather look ahead as to what can be done to solve the problem.
Turning building land over to non-profit housing co-ops, who'd then be able to sell the houses on at a decent price. I've seen figures which suggest the actual cost, minus land, of a three bed-semi with garage is in the region of £70k. That'd be the same whether it was built in Newcastle or Newbury.
Historic underinvestment in infrastructure goes back at least to the early 1960s. In terms of the 2010 election it's everyone's fault, and no-one's, and nothing much can be done about it now anyway.
If the government "gives" land to people on condition they build on it that IS a subsidy of course. If you are going to make me a gift I'd prefer hard cash, but I'll settle for a few acres of building land if that's all you've got.
Mind you, that's not a new idea either, with precedents in the UK from the New Towns Act to the current Kickstart programme. If you think that the subsidised sale of council houses was disastrous then allowing publicly owned land to be taken up by commercial developers for free or very cheaply should also make you uncomfortable, shouldn't it?
Of course getting hold of the land is only a part of the story. Costs of construction vary depending on what you're building, and where. Materials and wages costs vary across the country, building conditions are more or less challenging depending on the ground you've got to work with, the availability of roads, how far it is to the nearest grid connections for services etc. Whether you can get consent from the local authority to build on your piece of land may depend on whether the nearby road network can support the traffic you will generate, whether all the families you hope to lure into your new homes will swamp the local school etc. Sorry that I seem to be responding to all of these suggestions with endless variations of "it's not quite as simple as that", but if it WAS easy the manifestos would be full of brilliant ideas, wouldn't they.
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Pottage:
If the government "gives" land to people on condition they build on it that IS a subsidy of course. If you are going to make me a gift I'd prefer hard cash, but I'll settle for a few acres of building land if that's all you've got.
It's only a subsidy in the light of the land speculation we currently have. It's not uncommon for plots with or without planning permission to change hands for every increasing amounts without anything ever getting built. Buyer and seller both win until the bubble bursts, and still no houses get built. It's ludicrous. A non-profit (which stymies your later argument about commercial developers. They're part of the problem) wouldn't be able to do that, and would want to build houses.
I appreciate that it's not as simple as all that: I know all about the schools, the roads, the sewage works etc. But the answer is to find solutions and not to be so, er, conservative. The reason people like me blame nimbys, massive land banks and potty planning regs for the current situation is because they are actually, in part, to blame. The status quo is unsustainable.
Posted by Pottage (# 9529) on
:
Don't be so hard on construction companies. They're not generally my favourite clients, I confess, but remember that they acquire land to build on it. That's how they pay their bills and buy themselves ostentatious cars. If they bank the land for the future, or sell it on to someone else it's because they can't afford to build on it, or because it's not feasible to build on it (for example because there's no market for the houses), or because someone else has a better scheme than theirs.
There are lots of reasons why they might sell undeveloped land on at a profit without making the baby Jesus sad. For instance by their efforts and expertise they may have added to its value. They might have bought in other nearby bits of land as well which when assembled will enable something bigger and better to be built (but which perhaps they themselves aren't equipped to handle). They may have invested a lot of time, money and expertise in satisfying the council's concerns over ground conditions, ecology and so on which mean the land can now be built on immediately whereas previously that was only a possiblity.
But I'm afraid that giving public assets to someone for free, or at less than a full price, so as to help them to carry on their business IS a subsidy. The definition of "subsidy" doesn't alter depending on:
(a) whether the recipient is in business to make a fat smelly profit rather than being a terribly worthy charity, or
(b) whether the asset disposed of is a chunk of real estate or a chunk of money.
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Pottage:
The definition of "subsidy" doesn't alter depending on:
(a) whether the recipient is in business to make a fat smelly profit rather than being a terribly worthy charity, or
(b) whether the asset disposed of is a chunk of real estate or a chunk of money.
But in this case, private land ends up benefiting the public. Which is important.
(goes off whistling The World Turned Upside Down )
Posted by Pottage (# 9529) on
:
No, it's public land in all the circumstances we've been talking about. It requires conceptually that something we all own is given away to someone for them to use.
That someone might be a builder who would not otherwise be able to afford to develop some housing and who undertakes to do so, or it might be a charity whose aim is to bring disused houses into use or something similarly worthy. Subsidies aren't always a Bad Thing.
But they require a decision to be made, and preferably an informed decision based on facts and stripped of dogma and prejudice. The public money (or publicly owned asset that is worth money) given away is never going to be available for the public to use for any other purpose. If the subsidised sale of housing stock to council house tenants is something that you look back upon as one of the great disasters of 20th century public policy then I'd expect you to be quite uncomfortable with the solution that has recommended itself to you.
Billy Bragg would surely weep at the prospect. Or worse, sing.
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on
:
All I hear you saying is no, no, no.
The housing market is broken. The good, capitalist, supply-and-demand solution is to build enough new houses that the price of existing ones falls far enough that ordinary people can afford them again. Except all the good capitalists have got the laws and the land sewn up for their own benefit.
I appreciate you have a vested interest in keeping things as they are, but I worry not just for my children, but for the whole of their generation who'll end up buying into the two-jobs, work-all-hours, teeter-on-the-edge-of-disaster, pray-the-interest-rates-stay-down sort of life. It is unsustainable and wrong, and it needs to be changed.
(Apparently the Bard of Barking is voting LibDem this time around. Bit of a turn-up for the books.)
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
(Apparently the Bard of Barking is voting LibDem this time around. Bit of a turn-up for the books.)
As he said he would years ago even when he was campaigning for Labour - he was a strong proponent of voting for the non-racist candidate most likely to keep the Tories out. Where he lived then (& presumably now) that was the Liberal
Posted by Emma Louise (# 3571) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
I appreciate you have a vested interest in keeping things as they are, but I worry not just for my children, but for the whole of their generation who'll end up buying into the two-jobs, work-all-hours, teeter-on-the-edge-of-disaster, pray-the-interest-rates-stay-down sort of life. It is unsustainable and wrong, and it needs to be changed.
You mean this isn't "normal"......
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
I worry not just for my children, but for the whole of their generation who'll end up buying into the two-jobs, work-all-hours, teeter-on-the-edge-of-disaster, pray-the-interest-rates-stay-down sort of life. It is unsustainable and wrong, and it needs to be changed.
Amen and hallelujah to that.
One of the saddest things about aggressive capitalism is that, in the race to satisfy our desires through ceaseless competition, it ends up making us all anxious, exhausted, stressed, and losing out on the things that matter in life - the things that you cannot quantify on a balance sheet.
A good start would be to reject "growth", at least as measured in terms of GDP/GNP, and to focus on "slowth" - slowing down the way we live. E.g. If we were to cook food rather than buy it ready made and full of salt from the supermarket, growth and profits would decrease, but quality of life, creativity and health would increase. If we were to lend our lawnmower to the neighbours, and they lend us their strimmer, then growth and profits (not to mention use of metals, plastics etc) would decrease, but peace and security would increase (by the building up of social bonds through reciprocal gift-relationships).
Posted by Ricardus (# 8757) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
Turning building land over to non-profit housing co-ops, who'd then be able to sell the houses on at a decent price.
Sell them on to whom? I'd have thought that, once they enter the open market, all the problems of property speculation will sooner or later come into play - as Pottage points out, and as they did after the sale of council housing.
Posted by leo (# 1458) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by phil2357:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
They don't rule us. They govern on our behalf.
But the fact still remains that if I give taxation money to a government it is not me who decides what is done with it. I may influence who governs the country through my vote, but the actual decisions about how public money is spent are not made by me. Hence I cannot claim moral responsibility for them.
Or take a different line of reasoning: I live not too far away from a new hospital that is being built. I take it you are saying that we should see this as the government expressing our neighbourly concern for one another on our behalf. OK, but what about the public money spent on the war with Iraq? Are you prepared to take some personal responsibility for that?
The hospital - yes, very much so.
The war - no - the public mood was very much against it, as shown in demonstrations.
No government is going to get it right on every issue and no political party is going tick all the boxes - so a Christian has to support the party with the most boxes ticked, even if there are some policies that seem unChristian.
Posted by Ricardus (# 8757) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
George Lansbury summed it up: Socialism which means love, cooperation and brotherhood in every department of human affairs, is the only outward expression of a Christian's faith. I am firmly convinced that whether they know it or not, all who approve and accept competition and struggle against each other as the means whereby we gain our daily bread, do indeed betray and make of no effect the "will of God."
To a certain extent I actually agree, but what political party
a.) consistently opposes market forces as the driving-force of our economy; and
b.) has some coherent alternative to offer?
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
The war - no - the public mood was very much against it, as shown in demonstrations.
No - all the demonstration showed is that there was a loud, highly motivated group that opposed it. That doesn't prove that 'the public' opposed it - unless the crowd calling for Jesus' death is sufficient to prove that 'the Jews' choose to execute Jesus.
Remember that the war had the support of the Conservatives. Admittedly they were probably misled about the evidence, as we all were, but they, and many of the newspapers, were in favour. Whatever the 1970s and 1980s should have taught us, it should include that there being a loud minority for something doesn't prove that the majority wants it.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
No - all the demonstration showed is that there was a loud, highly motivated group that opposed it.
Quite. Any photograph of an Iraq War protest will almost certainly show several Socialist Worker placards.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
No - all the demonstration showed is that there was a loud, highly motivated group that opposed it.
Quite. Any photograph of an Iraq War protest will almost certainly show several Socialist Worker placards.
Very true, the SWP was there in force and almost in its entirety: about 300 of them. They cunningly produced many of the placards, which is an old Broad Left trick but the SWP didn't make up much of the protest however: even the Plod admits to 750,000 being present in London with substantial protests in Cardiff and Glasgow besides.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
I'm not saying there weren't a lot of people there. I'm not suggesting they were all SWP. What I'm saying is that there is no evidence that a majority of the population was opposed to the war. There are 60 million people in the UK. 2 million protested against it. Therefore - discounting 20m for children, OAPs and others unable to protest - we have 2 out of 40 protesting against. That's 5%. Rather less than the BNP polls
As the recent events in Thailand are showing, a large street demonstration does not form a good basis for government...
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
Turning building land over to non-profit housing co-ops, who'd then be able to sell the houses on at a decent price.
Sell them on to whom? I'd have thought that, once they enter the open market, all the problems of property speculation will sooner or later come into play - as Pottage points out, and as they did after the sale of council housing.
Would you buy a house for £250k that would be likely to be worth £150k in a few years time?
The whole idea of the project is to create a virtuous circle of descending house prices, by building more than the demand. Capitalist economics shouldn't be subject to speculation unless there are cartels (illegal), monopolies (likely to be broken up), or the commodity is scarce (last time I looked, neither bricks nor labour were in short supply).
Average prices have just gone up 10% in the last 12 months. How is this possible if the system is working to serve the consumers?
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
What I'm saying is that there is no evidence that a majority of the population was opposed to the war. ...
I take your point that the size of the protest on 15 February 2003 doesn't by itself prove that a majority of people in the UK opposed the war.
Ipsos Mori, however, found that "The final polls to be published before the war in Iraq started [...] all found a shift in public opinion in favour of British involvement in the war but still found a majority disapproving, both of military action and of Tony Blair's handling of the Iraq crisis."
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
Nice idea Doc Tor; the problem is that the scale of new housing required is in practice inconceivable on this crowded island. The cities such as London and Manchester are pretty much full. The countryside immediately around them is valued for its recreational value. There's also the idea that we might want to keep a few farms going. There is probably a case for landing some more cities like Milton Keynes around the countryside - though there's a major challenge in getting employers to move such locations rather than take the logical step of relocating overseas if they are going to move at all. Even the US, with plenty of land, has seen house prices rise recently.
But overall you seem to be assuming there is a simple answer which noone has seriously considered, whereas of course there has been extended discussion of these issues in 'Housing Economics' for decades. That said, there is IMHO a good case for a big increase in council tax on larger premises and the ending of the discount for second homes (granted on the basis that they use less services, which is true).
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
Nice idea Doc Tor; the problem is that the scale of new housing required is in practice inconceivable on this crowded island. The cities such as London and Manchester are pretty much full. The countryside immediately around them is valued for its recreational value. There's also the idea that we might want to keep a few farms going.
Nice try. How about some facts?
"If the whole of England is a football pitch, all the built up land is the penalty area. Most of this is made up of gardens, roads, paths and railways. Housing would cover just a third of the centre circle." (from here )
So your use of 'crowded' and 'full' are particularly creative in this context.
Posted by Marama (# 330) on
:
Would you all believe that I am sitting in the middle of the South Pacific watching the last British election debate on Aljezeera? Funny all world, isn't it.
Where are they holding it - it looks like a Town Hall and I gathered they were in Birmingham - but it looks a bit too colourful! Or is that just clever lighting?
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
:
Birmingham University's Great Hall.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
Nice try. How about some facts?
"If the whole of England is a football pitch, all the built up land is the penalty area. Most of this is made up of gardens, roads, paths and railways. Housing would cover just a third of the centre circle." (from here )
So your use of 'crowded' and 'full' are particularly creative in this context.
But that's the whole point; we can't build large, high density suburbs anywhere without access to existing cities. So the area available to build those suburbs is in the immediate vicinity of the penalty area, and not far beyond. You claim to live in Ultima Thule; which implies you have no experience of the realities of urban existence on a day to day basis...
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
we can't build large, high density suburbs anywhere without access to existing cities. So the area available to build those suburbs is in the immediate vicinity of the penalty area, and not far beyond.
Well, duh. Where else are you going to put the houses? That's why I'm also arguing for better transport links, or did you miss that bit?
quote:
You claim to live in Ultima Thule; which implies you have no experience of the realities of urban existence on a day to day basis...
Tyneside. Urban enough for you, Tory boy?
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
we can't build large, high density suburbs anywhere without access to existing cities. So the area available to build those suburbs is in the immediate vicinity of the penalty area, and not far beyond.
Well, duh. Where else are you going to put the houses? That's why I'm also arguing for better transport links, or did you miss that bit?
Not a solution; the problem is that commuting times in the urban areas of Britain - with the probable exception of Newcastle - are already uncomfortably high. The idea of building suburbs further out and therefore requiring more commuting is not attractive. The fact that commuting times in London are higher can be sustained by the higher wages down there...
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
You claim to live in Ultima Thule; which implies you have no experience of the realities of urban existence on a day to day basis...
Tyneside. Urban enough for you, Tory boy?
Nope - not urban enough for me. Newcastle is a small city compared with the real LARGE cities of the UK, and it's problems are very different because of its history. So I stand by my claim that you don't know enough to comment. After all there are houses being demolished in Western Newcastle because NOBODY WANTS TO LIVE THERE; an concept inconceivable in any other urban area that I'm aware of.
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
Not a solution; the problem is that commuting times in the urban areas of Britain - with the probable exception of Newcastle - are already uncomfortably high. The idea of building suburbs further out and therefore requiring more commuting is not attractive. The fact that commuting times in London are higher can be sustained by the higher wages down there...
Same old same old. You clearly know jack shit about Tyneside, about the problems of simply getting across the river. You say that building 'burbs further out isn't the answer because of the commuting time - then you make the commute easier. You build in the centres of towns and cities. You invest in light railways, buses, dedicated cycle routes. You look for creative solutions. Solutions that are tailored for local use.
I've lived in the south-east (where my parents still live), I've lived in Sheffield, I'm a regular visitor to Manchester and Liverpool. You'll be suggesting I don't have experience of what it's like to live in a big city even if I claimed I spent 10 years on Trantor. You're just unable to come up with any sort of solution up to and including denying there's a problem.
Oh yes, and:
quote:
After all there are houses being demolished in Western Newcastle because NOBODY WANTS TO LIVE THERE; an concept inconceivable in any other urban area that I'm aware of.
I'd do some googling on "shrinking cities" to fill the yawning gaps in your awareness.
Posted by Pottage (# 9529) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
All I hear you saying is no, no, no.
The housing market is broken. The good, capitalist, supply-and-demand solution is to build enough new houses that the price of existing ones falls far enough that ordinary people can afford them again. Except all the good capitalists have got the laws and the land sewn up for their own benefit.
I appreciate you have a vested interest in keeping things as they are, but I worry not just for my children, but for the whole of their generation who'll end up buying into the two-jobs, work-all-hours, teeter-on-the-edge-of-disaster, pray-the-interest-rates-stay-down sort of life. It is unsustainable and wrong, and it needs to be changed.
Then you're not listening. If you've got an alternative to the current arrangements that isn't pie in the sky I'll be all for it. But everything you propose carries a price tag in the hundreds of billions. Money that doesn't exist and would have many other worthy claims on its use if it did.
Trying to suggest that my objection to this daydreaming is based on my self interest is all very well I suppose, as a debating tactic at least. But from my perspective it isn't actually a solution, it's just posturing.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
I'll take the hit on shrinking cities - I was only thinking of the UK.
The issue is whether it is physically possible for there to be substantial population growth within sensible commuting distance of the city centre. I don't believe that is possible in our major urban areas except Newcastle. The provision of upgrades to the transport system may help. but not enough to alter the direction of house prices: as a result growing economic prosperity will lead to people throwing more money at their housing needs, with the result that prices will tend to continue to rise as growing demand faces stagnant supply.
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on
:
Pottage - you seem to be stuck with the idea that this would be a massive net cost: what it would mean is less profit. I'm willing to take the consequences of the price of my house falling by a quarter or a half or more, if it means families can have somewhere decent to live without beggaring themselves and spending all their time away from their home trying to pay for it.
Ender - oh, it's worse than that. Your own city once contained 766,000 people (1931 census). The 2001 census counted 392,000. Now, I haven't looked at figures for the Greater Manchester region, just Manchester City, but I'm guessing nearly halving the population of an urban area in just 70 years means that it's a damn sight emptier than it could be.
You're right about the stagnant supply, but better transport links do make a big difference. Where there's a Metro station within easy walking/bus/cycling distance, the house prices are higher than in comparable areas without. I know that's the same in Manchester. The answer is to extend the network (and put on more frequent/longer trains at peak hours - and stagger peak hours, too) to cover a wider area. Not just in distance, either - part of the problem with the west end of Newcastle is the absence of the Metro: places that are further out are thriving simply because of this.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
quote:
Originally posted by Spawn:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
The latter is the reason why I don't think any Christian can support the Tories without leaving his/her faith entirely out of the equation.
Hang on a second. I don't see how human rights are at stake in this General Election - though it would be good to see politicians emphasising the other side of the equation 'responsibilities' and also having a serious look at how we negotiate the collision of competing rights.
Your remark about Christians voting Conservative is frankly bizarre. The fact is that unless you see the Bible as some sort of party political manifesto you don't have a leg to stand on.
Not the bible but Christ, whose manifesto was the year of Jubilee - good news to the poor etc.
George Lansbury summed it up: Socialism which means love, cooperation and brotherhood in every department of human affairs, is the only outward expression of a Christian's faith. I am firmly convinced that whether they know it or not, all who approve and accept competition and struggle against each other as the means whereby we gain our daily bread, do indeed betray and make of no effect the "will of God."
Hmmm...I fail to see how allowing a culture of welfare dependency to develop, where individuals are in hock to the almighty state, is doing 'the will of God' or can be remotely Christian.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
Your own city once contained 766,000 people (1931 census). The 2001 census counted 392,000. Now, I haven't looked at figures for the Greater Manchester region, just Manchester City, but I'm guessing nearly halving the population of an urban area in just 70 years means that it's a damn sight emptier than it could be.
This is easily accounted for by the long term decline in household size and the increase in prosperity leading to people wanting more space. Without a vastly more massive increase in the number of people living in blocks of flats - which has happened in the city centre to an extent that would have surprised planners from 20 years ago - there's no way we could get anywhere near the population of the 1930s.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
George Lansbury summed it up: Socialism which means love, cooperation and brotherhood in every department of human affairs, is the only outward expression of a Christian's faith. I am firmly convinced that whether they know it or not, all who approve and accept competition and struggle against each other as the means whereby we gain our daily bread, do indeed betray and make of no effect the "will of God."
That sounds cute until you actually work out what it means on the ground: it means that state licenced suppliers of goods will have a monopoly of the market at state determined prices and the only innovations that are allowed are ones that don't endanger people's jobs. So no motor cars because train drivers will be made redundant. The Soviet Union tried this approach...
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
The whole idea of the project is to create a virtuous circle of descending house prices, by building more than the demand. Capitalist economics shouldn't be subject to speculation unless there are cartels (illegal), monopolies (likely to be broken up), or the commodity is scarce (last time I looked, neither bricks nor labour were in short supply).
Houses aren't just a commodity though - they're also an investment. Any project to drastically reduce prices would lead to severe financial hardship and/or bankrupcy for millions of homeowners, just as any project to drastically reduce prices on the stock market would have the same effect.
Though I suppose the ideal solution for socialists would be to have everybody living in council houses, forever in thrall to the almighty state...
.
On the issue of last night's debate, one thing struck me more than anything else. In their final statements, both Cameron and Clegg made positive statements about what they would do to improve the country. Brown, on the other hand, said nothing about what he would do - he just launched an attack on the other two parties. He's completely run out of ideas, hasn't he? The only basis he has left for seeking our vote is that he's bad, but the other guys are worse. Well sorry Gordo, but I'm not buying it and I'll be very surprised if anyone but the hardcore "I'd rather die than vote for anyone but Labour" crowd does.
Very impressed with Clegg and his economic policies though. For the first time in a long time I'm actually having to have a serious think about who to vote for...
Posted by Jane R (# 331) on
:
Matt Black said: quote:
where individuals are in hock to the almighty state,
Why is it better to be in hock for most of your life to a building society or bank?
I don't really own my house. I own about two bedrooms; the rest of it belongs to the building society, who graciously allow me to use it until such time as I am able to pay off the mortgage.
And it's only an investment if you don't have to live in it, or are willing/able to trade down into a cheaper house when you sell it. Otherwise the 'value' of your house is just a number.
Jane R
[ 30. April 2010, 10:09: Message edited by: Jane R ]
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
You ask 'why is it better?' Firstly, because you have to a degree at least a choice of supplier of your finance (less so admittedly than you did this time three years ago) which you certainly don't have with the state. Secondly, presuming that you have a repayment mortgage, the idea is that in due course you will progressively own more than just two bedrooms, indeed ultimately you will own the whole property. Thirdly, everyone has to live somewhere and thus be in hock to either a landlord or a mortgage lender, whatever the degree of state involvement - why does that make state interference in our lives a 'desirable extra'?
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Houses aren't just a commodity though - they're also an investment. Any project to drastically reduce prices would lead to severe financial hardship and/or bankrupcy for millions of homeowners, just as any project to drastically reduce prices on the stock market would have the same effect.
Two things here: houses are an investment only because they are artificially scarce. Very few other 'things' increase in value by simply being left alone. A car depreciates. A computer depreciates. Things wear out and we replace them.
Secondly, explain how paying say, £180,000 for a house that then falls in value will lead to hardship/bankruptcy. Presumably you could afford an 90% mortgage on the asking price when you bought it. Ten years down the line, when you've lived in your house for ten years and it's now worth £120,000, you can still afford it. I don't bitch on about how my car is now worth a fraction of what I paid for it new 4 years ago: I just paid the same amount every month until I'd completed the loan.
Yes, cars are different from houses. That's because people actually build new cars, which drives the price of the old ones down.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
You're assuming everything else remains constant in your model. It doesn't. Suppose interest rates go up or you lose your job so you can't afford to pay the mortgage. So you have to sell up and downsize, except that you can't because your house (in your model) is now worth significantly less than your mortgage.
[ETA - cars also depreciate due to wear and tear and because ultimately they have a limited lifespan, unlike houses.]
[ 30. April 2010, 10:38: Message edited by: Matt Black ]
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
You're assuming everything else remains constant in your model. It doesn't. Suppose interest rates go up or you lose your job so you can't afford to pay the mortgage. So you have to sell up and downsize, except that you can't because your house (in your model) is now worth significantly less than your mortgage.
If interest rates went up (and they can only go up now) or you lost your job, you'd risk losing the house anyway. I take the point about downsizing - but that's partly, if not mostly, about the size of the loans and the cost of housing being wildly disproportionate to the average income.
The reason we're in the position we are, with houses costing so much, is because of the historical lack of house building. We've made the bubble, and as I keep on pointing out, it's unsustainable. Those of us who see our house as a home, and not as an investment, are unwilling participants in this lunacy.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
The reason we're in the position we are, with houses costing so much, is because of the historical lack of house building. We've made the bubble, and as I keep on pointing out, it's unsustainable. Those of us who see our house as a home, and not as an investment, are unwilling participants in this lunacy.
I have nothing in principle against lowering house prices, as long as I and the millions of other homeowners in the country are compensated for the loss of equity.
When I bought my house it was not with the intention of living here all my life. I'd like to be able to upgrade (including moving to a better school area) once kids start coming along, for one thing.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
I have nothing in principle against lowering house prices, as long as I and the millions of other homeowners in the country are compensated for the loss of equity.
Herein lies the problem - and I'm in danger of agreeing with Doc Tor!!
There are two ways for the housing market to work: pre 1970 and post 1970 (approx date..).
In the pre 1970 model prices are stable and the cost of upgrading is sensible.
Post 1970, when house prices started rising rapidly, the model was that you got on the ladder and gained equity that you were then able to trade in for the necessary next upgrade combined with an increase in your mortgage. This is ultimately a bubble, because eventually house prices won't be able to keep rising. However in the process people do achieve their housing needs, a lot of us benefit from inheriting houses that we can sell (thanks Mum!) and the plates keep spinning. And whilst the plates are spinning the only alternatives are to join the manic dance - 'get on the housing ladder' - or rent. Renting does appear to be becoming more realistic as a long term provision of housing need, but it offers a different set of issues in terms of insecurity.
We need to let the air out of the bubble - but the trick would be to achieve zero housing price rises without causing precipitate falls; somehow I doubt this can be achieved... However the approach of substantially increasing council tax, especially at the higher end, may provide a useful way forward, removing capital value from householders and moving it to the government as an income flow. Unfortunately the very visibility of council tax - it's the only tax you are specifically reminded of every year when the bill comes through the door - makes it a hard one to increase, and that combined with the inevitable tales of property rich but cash poor OAPs make it a 'courageous policy', as Sir Humphrey would say.
Posted by phil2357 (# 15431) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
I have nothing in principle against lowering house prices, as long as I and the millions of other homeowners in the country are compensated for the loss of equity.
What sort of compensation would you be talking about, and who would owe it to you?
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
I have nothing in principle against lowering house prices, as long as I and the millions of other homeowners in the country are compensated for the loss of equity.
That's capitalism, baby!
Posted by Pottage (# 9529) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
Pottage - you seem to be stuck with the idea that this would be a massive net cost: what it would mean is less profit. I'm willing to take the consequences of the price of my house falling by a quarter or a half or more, if it means families can have somewhere decent to live without beggaring themselves and spending all their time away from their home trying to pay for it.
No, I'm not talking about lost profit for developers or landowners, or people's existing homes declining in value because we generate a massive over-supply so as to shatter the market.
I'm talking about the actual cost of building all the hundreds of thousands of houses you envisage. And the actual cost of acquiring the land, and building the infrastructure to make that possible. And the actual cost, having put tens of thousands of people into a part of the country that was previously empty of finding things for them to do to earn a living there.
That's what makes this so much pie in the sky.
Posted by Choirboy (# 9659) on
:
No need for y'all to build houses - we have tons of empty foreclosures over here. Just don't buy in Arizona - they might mistake you for an immigrant.
[ETA grammar. And to point out that as bad as things are over there, they could always get worse....]
[ 30. April 2010, 21:10: Message edited by: Choirboy ]
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Pottage:
No, I'm not talking about lost profit for developers or landowners, or people's existing homes declining in value because we generate a massive over-supply so as to shatter the market.
Well, neither am I. 'Lost' profit is less than they'd get with the current unsustainable speculation, but still a profit. And I'm suggesting not over-supply, but you know, actually trying to meet demand. Capitalism, and all that jazz.
quote:
I'm talking about the actual cost of building all the hundreds of thousands of houses you envisage. And the actual cost of acquiring the land, and building the infrastructure to make that possible. And the actual cost, having put tens of thousands of people into a part of the country that was previously empty of finding things for them to do to earn a living there.
At the risk of Fisking your post: people do have the money to buy a house, at cost plus a profit for the builder - just not the money to pay the stupid prices we have at the moment because we have a historic shortfall in supply. The actual cost of acquiring the land would be driven down simultaneously - land speculation is one of the driving forces of house speculation. And the infrastructure is just one of those things we're going to have to suck up, because we haven't invested in that, either.
And nowhere did I suggest stranding tens of thousands of people in the Grampians or the Brecon Beacons. Despite Ender's assertions to the contrary, Manchester is not full, and neither are any of the other cities in the UK.
quote:
That's what makes this so much pie in the sky.
Hmmm. Pie.
Posted by Pottage (# 9529) on
:
Perhaps I'm not making myself clear. The price of land, of houses and all of that stuff won't fall because you close your eyes and wish really hard. It will fall when you have created many hundreds of thousands of houses and the vast oversupply of them has pushed down the prices. But how do we get from here to there? Someone has first to buy all the land (at current prices), build all the roads and sewers and dull stuff like that which makes housebuilding work, then put up the houses (not necessarily in the deepest countryside but obviously and necessarily not where there are already communities). Where does the money come from to pay for that?
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
George Lansbury summed it up: Socialism which means love, cooperation and brotherhood in every department of human affairs, is the only outward expression of a Christian's faith.d betray and make of no effect the "will of God."
That sounds cute until you actually work out what it means on the ground: it means that state licenced suppliers of goods will have a monopoly of the market at state determined prices and the only innovations that are allowed are ones that don't endanger people's jobs.
No, it doesn't mean that. If you really think it does then that is proof that you aren't listening to what is being said but just stuck in the groove of conservative propaganda.
And as for Soviet-style central planning, the only serious party that is pushing for that is the Tories with their absurd pretence that government can decide how many workers are needed for each industry and set a quota for immigrants depending on that.
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
Nice idea Doc Tor; the problem is that the scale of new housing required is in practice inconceivable on this crowded island. The cities such as London and Manchester are pretty much full.
No, they aren't. Nowhere near. Both have fewer inhabitants than they did 80 years ago (as does Glasgow).
quote:
Even the US, with plenty of land, has seen house prices rise recently.
Which is complete proof that the high land prices that are crippling our econmy are NOT due to high population density or lack of usable land.
quote:
The idea of building suburbs further out and therefore requiring more commuting is not attractive.
Which is one of the many reasons why we need to increase population density in cities - as is happening in London, but unfortunately, because the large private developers have a lock-in on new building, not quite fast enough to reduce house prices, which is what is needed.
Posted by Moth (# 2589) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
The reason we're in the position we are, with houses costing so much, is because of the historical lack of house building. We've made the bubble, and as I keep on pointing out, it's unsustainable. Those of us who see our house as a home, and not as an investment, are unwilling participants in this lunacy.
I have nothing in principle against lowering house prices, as long as I and the millions of other homeowners in the country are compensated for the loss of equity.
You didn't read the bit about investments may go down as well as up? And I thought you were a capitalist!
Actually, I wouldn't despair. Land prices have always risen in the long run, even if there are temporary dips. You'll just have to plan your moves for the right moment, and hope the kids come along at a financially propitious time!
Posted by redderfreak (# 15191) on
:
I think what the electorate really wants is a well-hung parliament. Where the politicians have their heads banged together to co-operate to sort out the country's problems.
Whether we'll get that remains to be seen. Interesting times...
Posted by Nightlamp (# 266) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by redderfreak:
I think what the electorate really wants is a well-hung parliament.
All the polls on this subject say they don't want a hung parliament. Tehy might vote for one but they don't want it. I am a tory supporter this time round and I think I would like a lib lab pact with a wafer thin majority have to bring forward the spending review this Labour government have run from. This will lead to large cut backs and a collapse of the pact and then a healthly conservative majority.
In other wards I think the winner of this election will end up being the loser.
Posted by Clint Boggis (# 633) on
:
Funny, most Tories I've heard are calling for a "decisive result", "a mandate to govern"; they are willing to accept that it will be really tough on them if they get their wish, but it's an honourable position. You Nightlamp are hoping for a weak ineffective government, doomed to fail just so your party can get into power later.
It sounds like you care more about (delayed) power for your party than the good of the country.
.
Posted by Nightlamp (# 266) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Clint Boggis:
It sounds like you care more about (delayed) power for your party than the good of the country.
.
I think the other likely outcome is a wafer thin conservative government or minority conservative government and this will collapse in about 2/3 years time followed by a series of weak governments.
Although Cameron could invite the IMF in to do an audit of the books present this to the country and call another election and say who do you want to sort this mess out?
I would prefer a strong 25/40 seat majority conservative government but I cannot see that happening.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Clint Boggis:
Funny, most Tories I've heard are calling for a "decisive result", "a mandate to govern"; they are willing to accept that it will be really tough on them if they get their wish, but it's an honourable position. You Nightlamp are hoping for a weak ineffective government, doomed to fail just so your party can get into power later.
It sounds like you care more about (delayed) power for your party than the good of the country.
.
The good of the country depends upon the ability of politicians to work together, rather than the Tory baloney of decisive mandates etc. Most other democracies manage. It seems that the Tories have no faith in their ability to deal with anyone but themselves.
Posted by Spike (# 36) on
:
Just for fun, I've started a poll in The Circus
Please cast your vote!
Posted by North East Quine (# 13049) on
:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
quote:
All the polls on this subject say they don't want a hung parliament
A show of hands at the Scottish leaders debate last night was approx 2/3 in favour of a hung parliament, 1/3 against.
This could be because the best outcome for the SNP would be a hung parliament, in which they could exert influence, but I think it's more likely to be because we've had a hung parliament in Scotland and it doesn't appear to have been disasterous.
Posted by Touchstone (# 3560) on
:
How about this (nightmare) scenario:
Tories win most seats, some way short of a majority. GB goes to the palace and Advises Her Madge to invite DC to form a minority government. Then he goes away on a long holiday. (He'll also have to win an internal Labour power struggle with those who want to depose him and do a deal with Clegg. However, one thing that Gordo is good at winning is Labour Party power struggles.)
GB comes back in the autumn, itching to knock seven bells out of Cameron's government, which shouldn't be difficult as by then it will already be hugely unpopular. Some time next year Cameron throws in the towel, or loses a confidence vote, and there is a fresh election. The Lib Dem surge is long gone and GB gets back in with a slender majority. We are then set for a decade or two of weak and unpopular governments.
(Apologies if this has been discussed before, I have been skimming a lot of this very long thread)
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
An interesting scenario. At the moment, Labour is almost bankrupt and I don't see that situation changing any time soon. (This is the reason why the whole debate about the election date was a lot of rubbish - Labour couldn't afford to fight a general and local elections on different days).
The Lib Dems never have a lot of money, which makes the Tories relatively better off.
If the Tories don't get an overall majority, Mr Cameron can call a general election at any time in the next 12 months knowing that the Tories are better equipped to fight it.
Edit: Also, in this scenario, Labour wouldn't have the government's advertising budget at its disposal, which it has at the moment.
[ 03. May 2010, 18:24: Message edited by: Anglican't ]
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
I read the interesting comment that a Tory win might actually undermine the SNP, on the basis that Labour would revert to being the party of opposition for Scotland. I don't see it myself, but an interesting point nevertheless.
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
:
If there is a Conservative minority government next week, then we could see some interesting votes in the House of Commons in the next Parliament.
I would think that we could see a lot of abstentions from the other parties to avoid defeating the government on a vote of confidence which would result in another general election.
The last thing that the Lib Dems want is to bring down a minority Conservative administration, in a House where they are their most powerful for a generation / lifetime. They can't afford another election, and not clear they could do any better, and could easily be punished by the electorate. So although the LibDems will have a lot of power, they won't really be able to use it freely.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
Freejack,
I think it would depend upon what issue the Lib Dems used to bring down the government, and whether the public perceived it as being worthwhile. That is what tends to happen down here. The Lib Dems might even be able to get away with propping up a Tory government in a manner inconsistent with their manifesto commitments on the basis that it would be irresponsible to do otherwise. It all depends upon the public's likely response.
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
:
Well true public perception is key in the 'game of hung parliament chicken', but it also depends on how keen the public is to have another election in say July or October this year, rather than say May in a year or two.
Say the House of Commons looks like:
Con 310
Lab 230
L.D 75
Oth 35 (o/w DUP 10)
So only real option is Conservative minority government with some sort of DUP support.
Gordon Brown would resign on Friday, David Cameron would form a government by Monday.
If Labour, Lib Dems, SNP+PC+SDLP (+Green+Ind?) all voted down the Queen's speech or the mini-budget there would have to be an immediate general election. There would be no real prospect of any sustainable government - any red-yellow-green coalition would just be too fragile, and the leader of the Labour Party would already have failed to form a government.
One could construct a different result where the Lib Dems held power over Labour, particularly if they were very close in the national poll result even if not seats.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
Some very perceptive posts here, on the subject of "What happens after election day".
I wouldn't be surprised if the Conservatives got a majority on Thursday. For one thing, the weather forecast doesn't look too good, and traditionally the Labour vote suffers disproportionately if it rains. That said it might be a very slim majority and if, as seems likely, there is an Emergency Budget with cuts all over the place, I'm not sure there would be any of the customary arrangements to cater for absent MP's. That could make things very tight.
So while the Queens' Speech might be passed there may be trouble for a Conservative government that has a majority in single figures.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Moth:
You didn't read the bit about investments may go down as well as up? And I thought you were a capitalist!
Normal market forces driving prices down (as recently happened) is one thing. A deliberate government policy to artificially do so is another thing altogether.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by ken:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
Nice idea Doc Tor; the problem is that the scale of new housing required is in practice inconceivable on this crowded island. The cities such as London and Manchester are pretty much full.
No, they aren't. Nowhere near. Both have fewer inhabitants than they did 80 years ago (as does Glasgow).
As I pointed out earlier the decline in the population of our large cities is a function of the decline in household size and rise in demand for accommodation size. If Manchester were to move towards London's population density, it would need the quality of infrastructure - such as underground lines - that we don't at present have. Such expenditure would be HUGE. And the idea of yet more people travelling ever farther to work is deeply unattractive; I write as one who fled the South after graduation because I saw a high density lifestyle and daily commutes of an hour each way to be a sign of irrationality, not a rite as passage as my mother did
Posted by Jane R (# 331) on
:
Matt Black said: quote:
Firstly, because you have to a degree at least a choice of supplier of your finance (less so admittedly than you did this time three years ago) which you certainly don't have with the state. Secondly, presuming that you have a repayment mortgage, the idea is that in due course you will progressively own more than just two bedrooms, indeed ultimately you will own the whole property. Thirdly, everyone has to live somewhere and thus be in hock to either a landlord or a mortgage lender,
Thank you, I do understand the terms of my mortgage.
However...
If I have a council house, the rent I pay covers the cost of maintaining the property and (presumably) part of the cost of building it. The primary aim of the government in providing it is the welfare of its citizens, so in a housing shortage the people with the greatest need (eg families with young children) will be first in the queue.
If I have a mortgage, the monthly payments cover the cost to the bank or building society of lending the money to me, together with a Certain Amount of profit (as much as they can get away with) for the shareholders of the company. If I am lucky enough to have a mortgage with one of the few remaining mutual societies, I will be one of those shareholders, but probably I'm not. I will also be required to have life assurance (or in other words, a sucker bet with someone that I won't die before the term of the mortgage is up) so that there is no risk to the mortgage company if I drop dead before I've finished paying them back. I am also responsible for all maintenance costs on the property (there are sucker bets for this, too, known as buildings insurance). In this system, people who have the money to buy a house are first in the queue. The primary aim of everyone involved (except me; I'm just looking for somewhere to live) is to make a profit.
I can see why the second option is better for the economy - all those extra opportunities to make a profit! - but not why it's better for the householder.
Jane R
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
:
For what its worth, my own reasons for intending to vote Labour are here
(seemed a bit pointless to crosspost the whole rant, but if anyone wanted to reply to any of it feel free to copy any parts of it here)
Posted by Og: Thread Killer (# 3200) on
:
From the Canadian experience, if you get a minority:
The tea leaf reading and discussion of minute details of government will happen daily as the media discuss the next election from day 1.
&
After the first few years, and maybe another hung parliament, somebody will figure out it is possible to govern with a minority and get through legislation based on consenus. As you seem to have a parliament with a bit less strong a whip then we have here, your government might actually get a lot done, if the chatting political classes will let them.
People actually like minority government as it keeps a check on the more aggressive natures of the ideologues.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
Matt Black said: quote:
Firstly, because you have to a degree at least a choice of supplier of your finance (less so admittedly than you did this time three years ago) which you certainly don't have with the state. Secondly, presuming that you have a repayment mortgage, the idea is that in due course you will progressively own more than just two bedrooms, indeed ultimately you will own the whole property. Thirdly, everyone has to live somewhere and thus be in hock to either a landlord or a mortgage lender,
Thank you, I do understand the terms of my mortgage.
However...
If I have a council house, the rent I pay covers the cost of maintaining the property and (presumably) part of the cost of building it. The primary aim of the government in providing it is the welfare of its citizens, so in a housing shortage the people with the greatest need (eg families with young children) will be first in the queue.
If I have a mortgage, the monthly payments cover the cost to the bank or building society of lending the money to me, together with a Certain Amount of profit (as much as they can get away with) for the shareholders of the company. If I am lucky enough to have a mortgage with one of the few remaining mutual societies, I will be one of those shareholders, but probably I'm not. I will also be required to have life assurance (or in other words, a sucker bet with someone that I won't die before the term of the mortgage is up) so that there is no risk to the mortgage company if I drop dead before I've finished paying them back. I am also responsible for all maintenance costs on the property (there are sucker bets for this, too, known as buildings insurance). In this system, people who have the money to buy a house are first in the queue. The primary aim of everyone involved (except me; I'm just looking for somewhere to live) is to make a profit.
I can see why the second option is better for the economy - all those extra opportunities to make a profit! - but not why it's better for the householder.
Jane R
<Shrug> It's a trade-off, isn't it, between rights and responsibilities: if you want the right (ultimately) to own the roof over your head, then you have to take the responsibilities (insurance* and maintenance of said home, life cover for your dependants*) too; if you don't, you don't. Personally, I'd rather have the rights and responsibilities of ownership.
*Correct me if I'm wrong, but you seem to be suggesting that you should only have such insurance if you have a mortgage? Whilst you may be required to have buildings insurance if you have a mortgage, it would be silly to not have it even if you didn't have a mortgage, eg: in case it burned down. Ditto to a lesser extent with personal insurance (life, critical illness, redundancy protection etc). It's about providing as best you can those 'shit happens' events.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by ken:
For what its worth, my own reasons for intending to vote Labour are here
(seemed a bit pointless to crosspost the whole rant, but if anyone wanted to reply to any of it feel free to copy any parts of it here)
Thanks, good solid stuff and more coherent than Messrs Balls and Hain on the "Vote intelligently" issue. It explains why I voted Labour in 1997 and 2001.
We too get the Lib Dems and Tories saying they came second and we have Plaid Cymru to add to the fun. Remember that we have four elections here: for the local council, Parliament, the Welsh Assembly and the European Parliament: The Lib Dems can claim they very nearly won once and the Tories that they nearly won on another occasion! PC point to wins in council wards and the Tories and Lib Dems to similar in some pretty unlikely neighborhoods. No wonder a lot of shoe leather is being worn though.
Newport East will definitely be worth a look on Friday morning. A sizable swing is needed but the last European and council elections show anything is possible.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
Weird stuff from the Public Service front-line.
It looks like there will be capital spending cutbacks, quite possibly starting on Monday next week! Why therefore did my managers get together this very day with the user IT rep's to prepare a prioritized list of projects to be done.
Actually, I know damn well what is going on. There isn't anything resembling a programme for change, just a wish-list, so if the Powers That Be decide to cut then they can strike that through, as it is of no consequence, and the cuts will have to be borne by the relatively few ongoing activities. If on the other hand there is a umpteen man-year multi-million pound programme of seven or eight hefty identifiable items, we may get away with keeping everything that now exists and lose only part of the programme that was cobbled together just today, two days before the election!
Sir Humphrey would be proud of you.
Posted by Jane R (# 331) on
:
Matt Black said: quote:
*Correct me if I'm wrong, but you seem to be suggesting that you should only have such insurance if you have a mortgage? Whilst you may be required to have buildings insurance if you have a mortgage, it would be silly to not have it even if you didn't have a mortgage, eg: in case it burned down. Ditto to a lesser extent with personal insurance (life, critical illness, redundancy protection etc). It's about providing as best you can those 'shit happens' events.
Fair point. Though if you are a tenant, it's the landlord's job to arrange buildings insurance, not yours (so the cost of it is 'hidden' in the rent).
I am playing devil's advocate to a certain extent here - I think we need more council houses for those who'll never be able to buy their own, but I also think we need more housing in the private sector for the reasons already stated by Doc Tor.
I think the present housing situation, where even fairly well-paid people in their late twenties have no hope of buying a house in many areas, is unjust and needs to be corrected. Without overloading the already creaking infrastructure or further reducing the amount of green space, if possible.
And just for the record... I didn't get compensation for the money I lost in the 1990s crash, so do not expect to be compensated for any (notional) value of my house that gets wiped out in this one, either.
Jane R
Posted by Nightlamp (# 266) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by ken:
For what its worth, my own reasons for intending to vote Labour are here
I can't possibly vote labour because they destroyed my pension, they spent to much during the boom years (remember PFI)and when the bust years came they mortgaged the country to the hilt.
Who ever is in power will have to bring in massive cutbacks over the next 18 months and probably sooner because the Bond market might get annoyed with the UK. The public sector has had it's boom and is about to enter Browns bust.
The only reason I can think for voting Labour in is so they can get the credit for sacking hundreds of people, giving people 10% reductions in pay and taxing all those very nice public pension pots.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
I couldn't possibly vote Labour because they're a bunch of control freaks and always have been. There is an assumption that Lib Dem voters sympathise with Labour. This one doesn't.
Posted by dyfrig (# 15) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
labour ... destroyed my pension*, they spent to much during the boom years (remember PFI**)and when the bust years came they mortgaged the country to the hilt***.
* a system already under pressure because of (a) the Tories allowing firms "pension holidays" and (b) pension funds' dependence on the deregulated financial system created by the Tories.
** a system invented by the Troies and dependent on a deregulated system created by the Troeis
*** in pursuit of the ethos that underpinned the Tories' system - making credit available will increase people's ability to take risk. The consequence of some of those risks are now being felt.
Blaming one party for the current situation, which is the result of the lazy and greedy consensus of the last 20 years, marks a failure to truly undertsand that governments aren't really in charge of anything anymore. The irony is tht the Euroseptics and UKIP are half right - sovereignty has been given away, but not to the peopple they say - it's gone to the market. And the market believes in profit, even if it requires the bankrupting of a few countries along the way.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
quote:
Originally posted by ken:
For what its worth, my own reasons for intending to vote Labour are here
I can't possibly vote labour because they destroyed my pension, they spent to much during the boom years (remember PFI)and when the bust years came they mortgaged the country to the hilt.
Who ever is in power will have to bring in massive cutbacks over the next 18 months and probably sooner because the Bond market might get annoyed with the UK. The public sector has had it's boom and is about to enter Browns bust.
The only reason I can think for voting Labour in is so they can get the credit for sacking hundreds of people, giving people 10% reductions in pay and taxing all those very nice public pension pots.
And Brown wants us to give him anopther five years..???
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
The only reason I can think for voting Labour in is so they can get the credit for sacking hundreds of people, giving people 10% reductions in pay and taxing all those very nice public pension pots.
Indeed there is a scary logic for Labour voters to vote Tory to let them take the hit for doing the necessary. Which says something deeply depressing about human nature, but if it comes as a surprise we are very wet behind the ears...
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by dyfrig:
quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
labour ... destroyed my pension*...
* a system already under pressure because of (a) the Tories allowing firms "pension holidays" and (b) pension funds' dependence on the deregulated financial system created by the Tories.
I believe Nightlamp is talking about the tax raid on pension funds perpetrated by Brown when he was Chancellor.
If he gets back in this time he'll probably help himself to half our savings accounts as well. Labour policy has always been to keep people as poor as possible so that they're dependent on the Almighty State.
Posted by dyfrig (# 15) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Labour policy has always been to keep people as poor as possible so that they're dependent on the Almighty State.
Your nuanced understanding of their policies are noted.
Posted by kentishmaid (# 4767) on
:
Speaking of keeping people poor, I found Johann Hari's article in today's "viewspaper" section of the Independent both illuminating and scary.
Posted by Rosa Winkel (# 11424) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Labour policy has always been to keep people as poor as possible so that they're dependent on the Almighty State.
Deary me.
[ 05. May 2010, 12:53: Message edited by: Rosa Winkel ]
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by dyfrig:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Labour policy has always been to keep people as poor as possible so that they're dependent on the Almighty State.
Your nuanced understanding of their policies are noted.
Is it any more nuanced than certain posters' understanding of Tory policy?
Posted by Rosa Winkel (# 11424) on
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You were complaining about leo's prejudice about the Tories, while you have just displayed your own about Labour. You're no better than what you decry.
Posted by Nightlamp (# 266) on
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quote:
Originally posted by dyfrig:
quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
[qb] labour ... destroyed my pension*, they spent to much during the boom years (remember PFI**)and when the bust years came they mortgaged the country to the hilt***.
* a system already under pressure because of (a) the Tories allowing firms "pension holidays" and (b) pension funds' dependence on the deregulated financial system created by the Tories.
Then along came Gordon Brown in 1997 and literally destroyed the private pension schemes by the abolition of Advanced Corporation Tax by taking £100 billion out of private pensions.
quote:
** a system invented by the Troies and dependent on a deregulated system created by the Troeis he
Yet industrialised and perfected by Labour. Indeed I voted labour because I thought they might end PFI. Little did I realise they would behave even worse.
quote:
Blaming one party for the current situation, which is the result of the lazy and greedy
I don't blame Gordon Brown for everything yet Gordon Brown did destroy private pensions, and he spent far more than was sensible in the boom years, he over complicated the Tax credit system, he did announce the end of boom and bust. I blame him for what he did as probably the worst chancellor this country has ever hence I could never vote labour whilst he remains as leader. He was inspired at times like the introduction of the 10% Tax rate but then stupid when he took it away.
Posted by Rosa Winkel (# 11424) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
probably the worst chancellor this country has ever
That award goes to Nigel Lawson. Or Norman Lamont.
Posted by leo (# 1458) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Rosa Winkel:
You were complaining about leo's prejudice about the Tories, while you have just displayed your own about Labour. You're no better than what you decry.
Well spotted!
Posted by Pottage (# 9529) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Rosa Winkel:
quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
probably the worst chancellor this country has ever
That award goes to Nigel Lawson. Or Norman Lamont.
The office goes back centuries so the competition is severe. But even if we limit ourselves to living memory I suggest Denis Healey has a greater claim than any of these?
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by dyfrig:
quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
labour ... destroyed my pension*...
* a system already under pressure because of (a) the Tories allowing firms "pension holidays" and (b) pension funds' dependence on the deregulated financial system created by the Tories.
I believe Nightlamp is talking about the tax raid on pension funds perpetrated by Brown when he was Chancellor.
If he gets back in this time he'll probably help himself to half our savings accounts as well. Labour policy has always been to keep people as poor as possible so that they're dependent on the Almighty State.
It is this kind of rhetoric that really fucks me off during elections. Do you really believe that is what the labour cabinet has been thinking ? Really ?
I certainly don't believe that Cameron is thinking, "how can I really fuck over the welfare state" or "I really want to run the country for the richest business leaders and the devil take the hindmost". I think that is the outcome of his polices not the intention.
Similarly, a politician saying - "I can do x" - is not a lie, unless he knew for damn sure he couldn't when he said it. I don't think Clegg is lying when he says that a £10,000 personal allowance will create all sorts of wonderful effects, I just think he is wrong.
What happened to mistaken, misguided, badly advised, or even I think there is more evidence for economic theory x than economic theory y ?
Posted by Edward Green (# 46) on
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I will be voting Labour as I believe theologically that in principle private property is immoral.
Conservatives and Lib Dems don't seem to even begin to engage with this. But some in the Labour party will.
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
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A couple of weeks or so ago I got bolloxed here for posting my opinions on the political lines taken by UK newspapers, including this:
quote:
Originally posted by ken:
The Liberals will probably be supported by the rather misnamed Independent and will at least get a sympathetic ear from the Guardian and Observer and maybe the weekly Economist (though they overtly and covertly supported the Tories in Thatchers time) Coming from different sides of the fence the Grauniad and its stablemates, and the Economist and Financial Times are the only UK national newspapers likely to remain politically independent in news reporting during the election.
Labour will probably only be supported by the Mirror and the low-circulation weekly New Statesman (News International probably employ more people than read the Staggers!)
[...]
It is basically about filtering the news. Printing stories that talk about the things your party wants to talk about. Relegating other stories to the bottom of page seven or the week after the election. Making up shock headlines that do not adequately describe the contents of the article (The most egregious so far was the Mail's CLEGG IN NAZI SLUR ON BRITAIN which existed purely as a headline - the story underneath so inconsequential its hard to see how the staff could stay awake long enough to set it. And of course choosing which of the dozens of opinion polls to mention today in order to talk up your party and talk down the others.
One of the reasons I rarely read newspapers any more. And why all British people should thank God for the BBC. (And vote for party that is not going to gut the BBC and sell the offal to Murdoch's bottom-feeding lampreys)
Well, surprise, surprise. It turns out that the Economist and Financial Times have both come out in favour of the Tories, as have ALL the other national papers apart from the Mirror (and the Staggers if you caount that) for Labour and the Independent, the Guardian and Observer who went for Liberals.
Who would've thunk it?
Oh and the Mail's top three online headlines today - the day before an election - are £20,000 benefits so father of seven can keep his children in video games... and pay his huge booze bill because he's 'too moody to work and Father has face sliced open in 'racial attack' as his son, 5, watches in horror and Bulgarian family with 'pickpocket map' of London hotspots stole £100,000 from commuters. News, yes. But front page news in a national paper? During an election? Nothing about the economy, or global warming, or the national debt or the possibilities of constitutional change? Really??
Their most prominent online political headline was: 'We have 24 hours to save Britain': Cameron in last gasp bid to oust Brown as four in 10 voters as still undecided and their comment column is headed MAIL COMMENT: Why we must vote DECISIVELY to stop Britain walking blindly into disaster . . . and give the Tories their chance Fair enough - its the filtering of the news that I object to. Their endless venomous drip drip drip attempt to make people angry and afraid.
On past form (going back decades) I reckon there is about a 2/3 chance that tomorrow's main headline in the Daily Mail will be something they have saved up to seem damning of the Labour Party (if not it'll be some more saloon-bar "Britain is Broken" scaremongering). And if its an anti-Labour piece there will be about a 1/3 chance that it will later turn out to have been a lie.
Not all the Tory press is like this - the Telegraph's website leads on the Athens riots, the ash cloud, and a problem with Facebook security. Seriously defensible choices. Times online top stories are about Gordon Brown, the volcanic ash, Greece, and the Louisiana oil leak. Even the Sun, the tabloid of tabloids, after putting a recommendation to vote Tory from Simon Cowell (!!!!!!) at the top, has a human interest story from China, tonight's Spurs/Man City match, and the Greek situation.
There is no left-wing mass-consumption press in the UK. But the Grauniad - the only national newspaper that is not pitched politically to the right of the average Brit - leads with EU warning: UK to overtake Greece for worst deficit (if anything a story that tends to help the Tories), an reasonably neutral election news roundup, volcanic ash, and the oil leak. The Mirror, as usual these days, floods its web page with celebrity and football gossip - the only political story is a claim that Simon Cowell's endorsement of the Tories has backfired. A bit pathetic really.
The usually utterly middle-of-the-road Independent's website leads with an appeal to vote Liberal, followed by a story about the SAS in Afghanistan, then the volcano, the oil spill, and Greece. Though they did publish Johann Hari's "Cameron Land" which is perhaps the most twittered and blogged about news item of the last day of the campaign - almost displacing Philippa Stroud from the Twitter trends. (Both those links are well worth a read incidentally - though probably proof that the political Twitterati are on average as far to the left of the average Brit as the newspapers are to her right.)
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Pottage:
quote:
Originally posted by Rosa Winkel:
quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
probably the worst chancellor this country has ever
That award goes to Nigel Lawson. Or Norman Lamont.
The office goes back centuries so the competition is severe. But even if we limit ourselves to living memory I suggest Denis Healey has a greater claim than any of these?
Come Friday, the title of "the worst chancellor this country has ever seen" will surely belong to Osborne...
Posted by Nightlamp (# 266) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Edward Green:
I will be voting Labour as I believe theologically that in principle private property is immoral.
This economic theory has been tried for countries like China and Russia and it wasn't that successful at bringing people out of poverty
Posted by Pottage (# 9529) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
Come Friday, the title of "the worst chancellor this country has ever seen" will surely belong to Osborne...
To be fair, I think you have to assume that it'll take longer than 24 hours to establish a workable minority government and appoint ministers. And if he gets the nod over Cable, then in fairness Osborne has to be allowed at least a few months to wreck things before he could be expected to hold his head high in ompany like that.
Posted by Edward Green (# 46) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
quote:
Originally posted by Edward Green:
I will be voting Labour as I believe theologically that in principle private property is immoral.
This economic theory has been tried for countries like China and Russia and it wasn't that successful at bringing people out of poverty
Neither I suspect is Capitalism on a global scale.
We have to live in the system. But that doesn't mean we have to accept that it isn't evil.
Posted by redderfreak (# 15191) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
quote:
Originally posted by Edward Green:
I will be voting Labour as I believe theologically that in principle private property is immoral.
This economic theory has been tried for countries like China and Russia and it wasn't that successful at bringing people out of poverty
At heart Labour stands for the poor and underpriveleged in society. The Tories stand for the rich and the elite. They believe in cutting taxes for the rich (for example, inheritance tax) so that they can get richer. They hope that enough of the aspiring poor will make money to prevent them from rebelling. And the rest can rely on charity, a leisure activity for the rich to keep their conscience clear while they enjoy the trappings of wealth.
A bit of a simplistic view I know but I'm old enough to remember 18 years of Tory government, including Thatcher. We muddled through but a lot of people got hurt. That's why I'll be voting Labour.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by redderfreak:
At heart Labour stands for the poor and underpriveleged in society. The Tories stand for the rich and the elite. They believe in cutting taxes for the rich (for example, inheritance tax) so that they can get richer.
This is a rather weak reason to vote Labour. The Inheritance tax threshold used to be in the region of £250,000. When the Conservatives pledged to raise the threshold to £1 million Labour cancelled their planned election campaign and began to increase the threshold (although that has been delayed recently).
I won't go on to the fact that the gap between rich and poor has actually widened under Labour.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Edward Green:
quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
quote:
Originally posted by Edward Green:
I will be voting Labour as I believe theologically that in principle private property is immoral.
This economic theory has been tried for countries like China and Russia and it wasn't that successful at bringing people out of poverty
Neither I suspect is Capitalism on a global scale.
We have to live in the system. But that doesn't mean we have to accept that it isn't evil.
Strengthening property rights is the best means towards poverty reduction says the World Bank...
but don't let hundreds of millions of Chinese and Indian people's experience of being raised out of poverty undermine your ideology
Posted by redderfreak (# 15191) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by redderfreak:
At heart Labour stands for the poor and underpriveleged in society. The Tories stand for the rich and the elite. They believe in cutting taxes for the rich (for example, inheritance tax) so that they can get richer.
This is a rather weak reason to vote Labour. The Inheritance tax threshold used to be in the region of £250,000. When the Conservatives pledged to raise the threshold to £1 million Labour cancelled their planned election campaign and began to increase the threshold (although that has been delayed recently).
I won't go on to the fact that the gap between rich and poor has actually widened under Labour.
My point is that how ever bad you think things are under Labour (and I think they're quite good), they would have been a whole lot worse under the Tories. Be careful what you wish for.
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on
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What Ken Said.
Cameron must be stopped.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
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What I wish for is sadly not available under liberal Cameroonian Toryism.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
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quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
What Ken Said.
Cameron must be stopped.
I don't find Cameron especially worrying. He's basically "Blair - The Sequel" so the Tories have wisely kept most of the erstwhile shadow cabinet under wraps. Labour may be short of talent but can we take seriously the likes of Christopher Grayling (Home Office), Andrew Lansley (Health) and Theresa May at DWP? Oh, and Osborne at the Treasury. Hague will wow them in Washington.
Sod the policies, someone has to carry them out and I have no faith at all in that shower.
Posted by Nightlamp (# 266) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
Labour may be short of talent but can we
Ah yes, Brown as Prime Minister is there main weakness followed by Bob Ainsworth. I actually think Darling as been an OK chancellor every so often he has told the truth before the spin doctors got to him. If you are voting Labout to avoid the cuts well think again. Unfortunately for Darling his predecessor completely boloxed the economy and he will probably take some of the blame.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
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quote:
Originally posted by redderfreak:
At heart Labour stands for the poor and underpriveleged in society.
Replace "at heart" with "within living memory", and replace "stands" with "stood", and I might agree with you.
Posted by Clint Boggis (# 633) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by redderfreak:
At heart Labour stands for the poor and underpriveleged in society. The Tories stand for the rich and the elite. They believe in cutting taxes for the rich (for example, inheritance tax) so that they can get richer.
This is a rather weak reason to vote Labour.
You can dismiss it but do remember there are quite a lot of Christians here and we tend to to accept what that Jesus chap said about God and the poor. It's much harder for us to reconcile what he said with the usual Tory attitude to money: 'every man for himself'.
.
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
This is a rather weak reason to vote Labour.
Actually its a fucking good reason to vote Labour. Hard to think of a better one.
Posted by Robert Armin (# 182) on
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quote:
I'm old enough to remember 18 years of Tory government, including Thatcher. We muddled through but a lot of people got hurt. That's why I'll be voting Labour.
Absolutely. As Ken said on his blog, the only reason not to vote Labour is if another candidate in your constituency has a better chance to beat the Tories.
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by ken:
A couple of weeks or so ago I got bolloxed here for posting my opinions on the political lines taken by UK newspapers [...]
Though they did publish Johann Hari's "Cameron Land" which is perhaps the most twittered and blogged about news item of the last day of the campaign - almost displacing Philippa Stroud from the Twitter trends. (Both those links are well worth a read incidentally [...]
You were right. Yes they are.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Clint Boggis:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by redderfreak:
At heart Labour stands for the poor and underpriveleged in society. The Tories stand for the rich and the elite. They believe in cutting taxes for the rich (for example, inheritance tax) so that they can get richer.
This is a rather weak reason to vote Labour.
You can dismiss it but do remember there are quite a lot of Christians here and we tend to to accept what that Jesus chap said about God and the poor. It's much harder for us to reconcile what he said with the usual Tory attitude to money: 'every man for himself'.
.
I wasn't aware that that Jesus chap was a socialist and the Gospels were a call for the state to take over responsibility from people for the welfare of the disadvantaged. I missed that bit.
Posted by dyfrig (# 15) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Is it any more nuanced than certain posters' understanding of Tory policy?
Despite his obvious bigotries, Sibling Ken's (to whom I presume you are referring) rants come with the balm of being (a) quite entertaining and (b) sometimes correct.
[ 06. May 2010, 08:14: Message edited by: dyfrig ]
Posted by Nightlamp (# 266) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by redderfreak:
My point is that how ever bad you think things are under Labour (and I think they're quite good), they would have been a whole lot worse under the Tories.
I doubt it Tories are pro people saving for retirement whilst labour isn't.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Clint Boggis:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by redderfreak:
At heart Labour stands for the poor and underpriveleged in society. The Tories stand for the rich and the elite. They believe in cutting taxes for the rich (for example, inheritance tax) so that they can get richer.
This is a rather weak reason to vote Labour.
You can dismiss it but do remember there are quite a lot of Christians here and we tend to to accept what that Jesus chap said about God and the poor.
Yes, and this is one such Christian. But I don't recall Our Lord and Saviour extolling the virtues of an overwheening intrusive nanny state nicking money off people who've worked hard to earn it in order to supposedly achieve* that goal.
*Because that's bloody worked, hasn't it? Not.
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
I wasn't aware that that Jesus chap was a socialist and the Gospels were a call for the state to take over responsibility from people for the welfare of the disadvantaged.
When conservatives like Mr Cameron (in his 'Big Society' speech) say that they want to help the disadvantaged, I believe them. At the same time, I cannot close my eyes to the results of their policies. When someone's words and actions differ, I tend to focus on their actions - and the consequences.
Mr Cameron said that he "proud" of the Conservative council in Hammermith and Fulham, as they provide a 'model' of compassionate conservativism.
These compassionate conservatives reportedly closed 12 shelters for the homeless. These compassionate conservatives refused permission for the charity Crisis to provide a night shelter at Christmas. These compassionate conservatives refused to provide emergency shelter to a young pregnant woman, who fled a violent boyfriend. They left her to sleep in a local park, in what the Local Government Ombudman called "maladministration."
These compassionate conservatives were apparently described by George Osborne as a "model" for a Conservative government. May God protect the disadvantaged from compassionate conservatism.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
quote:
Originally posted by Clint Boggis:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by redderfreak:
At heart Labour stands for the poor and underpriveleged in society. The Tories stand for the rich and the elite. They believe in cutting taxes for the rich (for example, inheritance tax) so that they can get richer.
This is a rather weak reason to vote Labour.
You can dismiss it but do remember there are quite a lot of Christians here and we tend to to accept what that Jesus chap said about God and the poor.
Yes, and this is one such Christian. But I don't recall Our Lord and Saviour extolling the virtues of an overwheening intrusive nanny state nicking money off people who've worked hard to earn it in order to supposedly achieve* that goal.
*Because that's bloody worked, hasn't it? Not.
Indeed. Labour's legislative hyperactivity over the last thirteen years reveals this.
Furthermore, allowing the City of London to cut loose, ruining public finances, and creating a economic bubble seems like a curious way to help the poor. It looks more like Toryism to me.
When Nick Clegg says that 'it's time for a change', the response is 'well, he would say that, wouldn't he'. To my mind, however, it happens to be true.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
There is a good chance, if we get a hung parliament, that we might end up with David Miliband as PM on Monday. Now he makes even George Osborne look experienced...
Posted by Nightlamp (# 266) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
When Nick Clegg says that 'it's time for a change', the response is 'well, he would say that, wouldn't he'. To my mind, however, it happens to be true.
But is the change good? for instance they intend to introduce road pricing . This is hugely expensive way to collect tax and control cars (why not increase the price of petrol instead?). It will cause 'Rat runs' down minor roads. Every car in the coutnry will need to be tracked. What does this say about civil liberties?
Not only do they have a mad Transport policy they have a lunatic economic policy.
Yes Nick clegg and Vince Cable are nice people and very bright it's just that the Liberal Democrat party policy will take the country into a left turn onto the road to ruin.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
The other thing is 'change to what?'. Lib Dem policy on a lot of things appears to change from week to week and region to region.
Sometimes joining the Euro is a good long-term goal, sometimes it isn't. Sometimes giving an amnesty to 600,000 illegal immigrants is a bold but sound idea, sometimes that figure is denied. Sometimes a coalition with Gordon Brown is out of the question, sometimes it is quite possible.
It would be a start if they could actually be pinned down on some of this stuff before then deciding whether they represent a change for the better.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
What Nightlamp says abour road pricing. It will be expensive to introduce and enforce while a petrol price increase, to replace VED and additional tax road use, is damn near unavoidable.
Part of the problem the LibDems have had is that they don't have the discipline of the Old Firm. Giving your supporters freedom to express preferences is one thing, as is giving yourself room to manoever and acknowledging that changing circumstances require a different response, but many voters do like the illusion of certainty.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
for instance they intend to introduce road pricing . This is hugely expensive way to collect tax and control cars (why not increase the price of petrol instead?). It will cause 'Rat runs' down minor roads. Every car in the coutnry will need to be tracked. What does this say about civil liberties?
There are other ways to introduce effective congestion charging without such issues e.g. require an additional licence (cost ~£1000) to drive within certain designated built up areas before a given time. Perhaps with the option of a day licence purchasable on the internet. The big virtue of this is that it doesn't penalise people in areas where there is no significant congestion by raising the price of petrol still higher, the easy, but highly destructive of the rural lifestyle, option.
(I write as a non car driver who for 15 years rode a bicycle some 4 miles to work and lives in an area with plenty of buses. There alternatives - let's incentivise people to use them and to resist the easy solution of just jumping in their car).
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Rosa Winkel:
You were complaining about leo's prejudice about the Tories, while you have just displayed your own about Labour. You're no better than what you decry.
Isn't it funny how all the anti-Tory prejudice is so gleefully accepted by people here, though? Someone can say "the Tories' only reason for existing is to fuck the poor" and they will be applauded, regardless of the truth of that statement. I give you a little taste of it back, and am jumped on.
Are you sure your eyes are completely mote-free?
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by dyfrig:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Is it any more nuanced than certain posters' understanding of Tory policy?
Despite his obvious bigotries, Sibling Ken's (to whom I presume you are referring) rants come with the balm of being (a) quite entertaining and (b) sometimes correct.
ken was one to whom I was referring, but there are others. There is a large vein of "Tories are second only to Satan himself" prejudice on these boards.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
And "how can you be a Christian and vote Tory" comments.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
And "how can you be a Christian and vote Tory" comments.
I expect everyone with a political affiliation and a faith gets the same. I was asked "How can you be a Christian and LibDem?" harking back to David Steel piloting the 1967 Abortion Act through Parliament as a Private Member's Bill.
eta: I can also remember being asked "How can you be a Socialist and a Christian?" by, I think, a convinced Marxist-Leninist who thought any faith incompatible with The One True Socialism.
[ 06. May 2010, 11:40: Message edited by: Sioni Sais ]
Posted by dyfrig (# 15) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
ken was one to whom I was referring, but there are others. There is a large vein of "Tories are second only to Satan himself" prejudice on these boards.
You should try being his facebook friend.
I suggest you challenge it with fact and analysis. The comment about the All Powerful State to which I* responded had the distinct disadvantage of being neither accurate nor insightful nor particularly amusing.
* this "I" not intending to vote Labour today, therefore not defending them out of a sense of partisan duty.
[ 06. May 2010, 11:53: Message edited by: dyfrig ]
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by dyfrig:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
ken was one to whom I was referring, but there are others. There is a large vein of "Tories are second only to Satan himself" prejudice on these boards.
You should try being his facebook friend.
I am.
quote:
I suggest you challenge it with fact and analysis. The comment about the All Powerful State to which I* responded had the distinct disadvantage of being neither accurate nor insightful nor particularly amusing.
Well, Labour is the party of statism and central control, be it in their erstwhile socialist way or their current Blairist way. I speculate that the only reason they haven't renationalised everything is it would be political suicide.
quote:
* this "I" not intending to vote Labour today, therefore not defending them out of a sense of partisan duty.
I have to confess, despite my mentioning virtually every party but one on the "parties you won't vote for" thread my mind is still not 100% made up between Tory and Liberal.
Posted by Erroneous Monk (# 10858) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
I have to confess, despite my mentioning virtually every party but one on the "parties you won't vote for" thread my mind is still not 100% made up between Tory and Liberal.
I tend to think from what you post here that our politics are not dissimilar. I opted for Lib Dem this morning as I believe the Lib Dem candidate will do a better job of representing local people, and that she will be receptive to informed views from her constituents.
I think you can certainly be a Christian and support Conservative economic and fiscal policy. The model of the individual being motivated to earn (c.f. Martin Luther on God's reason for creating avarice) and thus being able to be generous with those in need seems to me to be more truly in line with the Gospel than the model of the individual being heavily taxed and having no choice over how that is spent (as well as no genuine impulse to give freely - paying tax ia not a loving act).
However right now (as you know from other threads) I struggle with aspects of Conservative social policy, including immigration.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Erroneous Monk:
I tend to think from what you post here that our politics are not dissimilar. I opted for Lib Dem this morning as I believe the Lib Dem candidate will do a better job of representing local people, and that she will be receptive to informed views from her constituents.
It is exactly for this reason that I'm considering a split vote - Conservative for Westminster, Lib Dem for the local council.
quote:
I think you can certainly be a Christian and support Conservative economic and fiscal policy. The model of the individual being motivated to earn (c.f. Martin Luther on God's reason for creating avarice) and thus being able to be generous with those in need seems to me to be more truly in line with the Gospel than the model of the individual being heavily taxed and having no choice over how that is spent (as well as no genuine impulse to give freely - paying tax ia not a loving act).
Quite so.
quote:
However right now (as you know from other threads) I struggle with aspects of Conservative social policy, including immigration.
No party is perfect. If it weren't for two reasons - their policy on joining the Euro and their virtually guaranteed propping up of a Labour government in any hung parliament - I'd be a lot more certain to vote Lib Dem.
Posted by Moth (# 2589) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by dyfrig:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Is it any more nuanced than certain posters' understanding of Tory policy?
Despite his obvious bigotries, Sibling Ken's (to whom I presume you are referring) rants come with the balm of being (a) quite entertaining and (b) sometimes correct.
ken was one to whom I was referring, but there are others. There is a large vein of "Tories are second only to Satan himself" prejudice on these boards.
I admit to being prejudiced against the Tories, if indeed it is prejudiced to have developed a real hatred of them during the Maggie Thatcher years (when I was about your age) so that I absolutely cannot bring myself to put a cross next to the Tory candidate on the ballot form!
I'm pretty sure that with what we earn as a couple, ShadoK and I would be much better off under a Tory government, but I just can't do it! On the other hand, we work in the public sector (as do you, I believe) so we may not even have jobs this time next year!
Posted by Rosa Winkel (# 11424) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by Rosa Winkel:
You were complaining about leo's prejudice about the Tories, while you have just displayed your own about Labour. You're no better than what you decry.
Isn't it funny how all the anti-Tory prejudice is so gleefully accepted by people here, though? Someone can say "the Tories' only reason for existing is to fuck the poor" and they will be applauded, regardless of the truth of that statement. I give you a little taste of it back, and am jumped on.
Are you sure your eyes are completely mote-free?
You're lumping us all together. I haven't said generalised statements about the Tories, myself. I posted at some time that I in fact know some decent Tories, so don't have a prejudice about them.
They are not, by the way. I am just highlighting that you are complaining about party prejudice, when you do it yourself. You're the one throwing stones.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Moth:
I admit to being prejudiced against the Tories, if indeed it is prejudiced to have developed a real hatred of them during the Maggie Thatcher years (when I was about your age) so that I absolutely cannot bring myself to put a cross next to the Tory candidate on the ballot form!
I was a schoolboy at the time, but can vividly remember that Labour wanted to shut my grammar school down. A real hatred was developed, and so it goes...
quote:
I'm pretty sure that with what we earn as a couple, ShadoK and I would be much better off under a Tory government, but I just can't do it!
If their tax plans are to be believed, there's a good chance that we'd both be better off under the Lib Dems!
quote:
On the other hand, we work in the public sector (as do you, I believe) so we may not even have jobs this time next year!
(English) Universities are only public sector in as much as they receive funding from the government through HEFCE. Funding which has already been dramatically cut. Twice. To be honest, I can see us going more and more towards the private sector, with much higher tuition fees (the Browne report is keenly awaited in this particular corner of the Russell Group) and much less central funding - a move towards the American system, basically.
Not all the universities might make it through such a change, but I'm pretty sure the one I'm working for will!
Posted by Jolly Jape (# 3296) on
:
quote:
originally posted by MtM
Because that's bloody worked, hasn't it? Not.
Well, actually it has, rather. Of course, the poor we have with us always, but, even if you strip off the hyperbolic rant, anyone who thinks that a public funded welfare state has failed ought to speak to people like my mum, (b. 1915 and still going strong) who grew up in an environment where no such provision was available.
[ 06. May 2010, 14:31: Message edited by: Jolly Jape ]
Posted by Albertus (# 13356) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
There is a good chance, if we get a hung parliament, that we might end up with David Miliband as PM on Monday. Now he makes even George Osborne look experienced...
Actually, there's not a lot to choose betwen them in the length of their political and quasi-political ideas. However, Miliband has been doing senior jobs for longer (Secretary to Borrie Commission in 1992-4, head of Downing St Policy unit from 97, and ministerial jobs since about 2003)- and perhaps more importantly, he has a reputation for knowing the areas where he has to learn. I know Miliband looks like he's about 14, but he's not the worst we could do, by a long chalk.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jolly Jape:
quote:
originally posted by MtM
Because that's bloody worked, hasn't it? Not.
Actually, Matt posted that.
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
:
Wheras we are into part-time adult education and so our funding is even dodgier.
But it is a lovely, warm, breezy, sunny spring day and apparently there is a high turnout building. Which conventional wisdom has it is good for Labour. So I suspect we are going to do better in the local council elections than last time.
As for Parliament - anybody's guess.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by ken:
apparently there is a high turnout building.
Regardless of who they're voting for, if this proves to be true it will be a fine day for democracy in this country
Posted by Nightlamp (# 266) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Moth:
I'm pretty sure that with what we earn as a couple, ShadoK and I would be much better off under a Tory government, but I just can't do it! On the other hand, we work in the public sector (as do you, I believe) so we may not even have jobs this time next year!
Under the Labour government your pension has been very nice whilst mine has been decimated and public pay has rocketed over the last 10 years. I guess you are voting for what is good for your pocket.
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by ken:
apparently there is a high turnout building.
Regardless of who they're voting for, if this proves to be true it will be a fine day for democracy in this country
It is a Good Thing™ indeed. The only wasted vote is an unused vote. Go to it, people.
Posted by leo (# 1458) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Edward Green:
I will be voting Labour as I believe theologically that in principle private property is immoral.
Conservatives and Lib Dems don't seem to even begin to engage with this. But some in the Labour party will.
Wow. I used to belong to the Labour Party for that very reason.
Then I inherited my late mother's stocks and shares - many of them in apartheid South African dodgy businesses. Morally, I should have given the money to charity while continuing to pay rent to a landlord who used the money to send his child to a private school.
Instead, I bought a house.
Then Labour abolished Clause Four so I resigned.
I have just voted LibDem on a personal ticket. The sitting MP is a LibDem who is also midway between an aquaintance and a friend of mine,
Posted by Moth (# 2589) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
quote:
Originally posted by Moth:
I'm pretty sure that with what we earn as a couple, ShadoK and I would be much better off under a Tory government, but I just can't do it! On the other hand, we work in the public sector (as do you, I believe) so we may not even have jobs this time next year!
Under the Labour government your pension has been very nice whilst mine has been decimated and public pay has rocketed over the last 10 years. I guess you are voting for what is good for your pocket.
My pension is not worth much as I worked part time for a very long time whilst my children were small. ShadoK's pension may indeed be quite good, if it isn't decimated by the next government of whatever colour. We haven't worked in the public sector all our lives, so neither of us has the full quota of years. I feel for you with a private pension - my parents were self-employed, and theirs came to about half of what was predicted, and now their savings are making no money.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jolly Jape:
quote:
originally posted by MtM
Because that's bloody worked, hasn't it? Not.
Well, actually it has, rather. Of course, the poor we have with us always, but, even if you strip off the hyperbolic rant, anyone who thinks that a public funded welfare state has failed ought to speak to people like my mum, (b. 1915 and still going strong) who grew up in an environment where no such provision was available.
I was talking more about the last 13 years.
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
Under the Labour government your pension has been very nice whilst mine has been decimated and public pay has rocketed over the last 10 years. I guess you are voting for what is good for your pocket.
You seem to assume that public sector pensions are automatically more generous than private sector ones.
When I moved from private sector employment to public sector about ten years ago my pension got a lot worse on paper. I say "on paper" because in practice my extremely good fund from the other place turned out to be worth about a quarter of what it had been said to be before because of incompetent management. My current pension is doing better because the investments are better chosen. Even so, if I retire at 65 it won't give me enopugh money to pay the mortgage - and I will probably still have one then because the private sector endowment fuind that was supposed to pay it off will be nowhere near able to. So I expect to have to continue in full-time work after I am 65. And I have expected that for the last ten years or more.
The reason pensions are doing badly are nothing to do with the government. They are the property bubble, incompetent fund mangement, and the aging population. None of them is going to change soon, so the value of pensions as a share of the total economy is going to fall. Whoever is in government. Deal with it.
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
Pay in the public sector is not better than the private sector (even *after* the pay rises), and is frequently less than you'd make for an equivalent level of responsibility and length of training in the private sector.
All people at my grade make decisions about managing risk related to potential fatalities. I have spent 7 years training, as well as doing 2.5 years of what were essentially jobs designed to prepare me for this job. I earn slightly more than an experienced joiner. Slightly less than an experienced manager of a McDonalds restaurant. And the majority of NHS staff earn less than I do.
The pension is about the only finanicially attractive bit of it, and it is that that keeps many in the job when dealing with very difficult working conditions. In my line of work I have been assaulted more than once and I know it will happen again, I am also likely to get stalked at some point. And I am relatively at less risk than many frontline staff in acute care. With out the pension and decent terms and conditions it would be extremely difficult to retain staff in the longer term, because why stay and put up with all the shit when you could do something else better paid. A sense of vocation takes you only so far.
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
:
Stick neck out time and predict.
My guess is a small but workable Tory majority of ten to twenty seats in the House of Commons. I'd love to see a hung parliament - love it trebly of they could do a deal on some serious constitutional reform - but I think the Tories will sneak in again. So we will yet again have a government to the Right of the average British voter (as we have has consistently since at least the 1960s if not the 1940s) They won't get 40% of the popular vote but they could easily get 35-36% and 38-39% is not beyond the bounds of reason.
Labour will have over 200 seats, maybe over 230, but I'd be very surprised if we get as far as 250 (even though we could probably do that on less than 30% of the vote the way the geography works) and stunned if it was as many as 270 (which gets into minority government territory)
Liberal share of the vote will be smaller than Labour, but only just. Maybe no much more than a percent in it. And it will be remarkably ineffective. A lot of it is "soft" protest vote that goes back to Tory in a close call, so in seat after seat they will seem to be coming close to winning but not quite get there. So they will get even fewer seats than electoral geography predicts. Perhaps no more than they have now. Certainly nowhere near 100 - my guess is 60-70. If they pick up seats its more likely to be from Tories than from Labour. This prediction fails if Tories start doing the kind of intelligent voting that anti-Tories have been doing since the 1990s in the comparatively few Lib-Lab marginals, or if the Labour vote falls below about 27-28%
I'd love to be wrong. Again and again since the 1960s I've heard left-wing Labour supporters clutch at the straw of a "Liberal revival" which would head off a feared Tory victory and ideally lead to a hung Parliament, a Lib-Lab coalition, and that longed-for electoral reform (whatever the leadership of the Party say, Labour activists mostly want preferential ballots, not FPTP) And again and again it hasn't happened. Maybe this time.
Regional and national parties:
Plaid will yet again do worse than before though if the Labour vote falls even faster they might pick up two more seats. But I suspect Wales will regress back towards Labour-Tory battles. Conservatives will pick up a few seats, but on the whole Wales will not be blue.
IN NI DUP to do well, UUs to do badly - the alliance with the Tories hurts them, and now the Tories are talking about betraying them, so it doesn't matter anyway. SDLP seem to be a spent force (unfortunatly) so Republican-majority areas will be Sinn Fein.
SNP to do well in Scotland, at the expense of the Tories who will yet again get almost nowhere north of the border, and also Labour might lose one or two to SNP and maybe one or two to the Tories as well.
Minor Parties:
BNP will win no seats and Nick Griffin will be humiliated into third or fourth place in Barking. They will do better in the North of England than the South, and really quite badly in London. There will, unfortunately be quite a few constituencies where they get more than a thousand votes, and a handful where they get four or five thousand, so their total popular vote will be quite big - maybe larger than ever before (that partly depends on UKIP)
Greens may win Brighton Pavilion - but in face of a Tory swing they might also manage to give it back to the Tories. Labour quite likely to be third place there. The Green target seat in Norwich will turn out to be unattainable. And Deptford will just have been wishful thinking - a lot of their votes there will vanish and Labour will win by a large majority, though the intensity of their campaigning there might help them keep some of their council wards against what is likely to be a swing to Labour in inner London council elections. On the other hand the Greens will easily beat the BNP nationwide, and probably beat UKIP too.
(In the other Brighton seats I think Labourt might keep Kemp Town - there has been demographic change making it a more Labour sort of place. I can't believe Labour can win Hove again. But then I didn't believe they would win it in the first place.)
Celebrity vehicles:
The UKIP Farago will win nothing even though they will get a few hundred thousand votes nationwide. Esther Ranzen won't get in in Luton. Respect will vanish without trace apart from George Galloway whose fan-club will not quite get him back into Parliament but might keep out his Labour opponent - a possible surprise Liberal win in Poplar?
London Boroughs:
A tale of three cities. With a high turnout and a boost from the General Election, Labour might actually win back some councils they lost last time and will improve their representation in most, if not all, inner London boroughs. But I suspect that some outer London boroughs will swing heavily Tory, and the LD hold on SW London will get stronger. So the map of London local councils will even more resemble red jam in a blue doughnut with a yellow wedge shoved into the bottom left-hand corner.
I have no basis to call the handful of directly elected mayors on.
Again, I'd love to be proved wrong. So go out and vote against the Tories if you haven't yet!
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
Forgot to add, I have five years fulltime experience - *after* the ten years of education, training and preparatory jobs.
(And I have never struggled to pay the mortgage because I have never earned enough to remotely consider trying to buy a house in the area where I live.)
[ 06. May 2010, 18:00: Message edited by: Think² ]
Posted by Pottage (# 9529) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by ken:
You seem to assume that public sector pensions are automatically more generous than private sector ones.
Not necessarily, obviously, and not in all cases, but in fact this is not some sort of urban myth. In particular, traditional final salary pension schemes (as opposed to money purchase ones) now benefit no more than 15% of the private sector workforce, whereas a whopping 78% of public sector employees (five million people) still have that anachronistic and fundamentally unaffordable benefit.
It's often argued that having a lovely, generous pension is in some way a compensation for public sector staff earning averagely less than those in the private sector. That IS true at some senior grades, but otherwise it's quite inaccurate these days (if it was ever true). According to the Office for National Statistics the current average salary in the private sector is £21,528, and in the public sector it is £23,660.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
Thanks for sticking your neck out Ken - the alarming thing is that I think I agree with most of your predictions, though I suspect you are over optimistic about Griffen being dumped into third place.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
Just voted: Tory nationally and Lib Dem locally. Lots of people out this evening voting it would seem.
Posted by Thurible (# 3206) on
:
Lib Dem both locally (no-one bothered to stand as a Labour candidate) and nationally. The latter made me feel slightly sick, to be honest (I really don't like tactical voting), but I thought it important to try and, well, keep the Tories out of this constituency at least.
ETA that which I was originally going to say: I've never had to queue for 20 mins to get into the polling station before. Quite splendid.
Thurible
[ 06. May 2010, 18:51: Message edited by: Thurible ]
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Pottage:
quote:
Originally posted by ken:
You seem to assume that public sector pensions are automatically more generous than private sector ones.
Not necessarily, obviously, and not in all cases, but in fact this is not some sort of urban myth. In particular, traditional final salary pension schemes (as opposed to money purchase ones) now benefit no more than 15% of the private sector workforce, whereas a whopping 78% of public sector employees (five million people) still have that anachronistic and fundamentally unaffordable benefit.
It's often argued that having a lovely, generous pension is in some way a compensation for public sector staff earning averagely less than those in the private sector. That IS true at some senior grades, but otherwise it's quite inaccurate these days (if it was ever true). According to the Office for National Statistics the current average salary in the private sector is £21,528, and in the public sector it is £23,660.
That genuinely surprises me. When I started in the NHS in 2002, with previous experience and a degree I was earning £4000 less than a trainee business manager with McDonalds. Graduates going into IT were earning a lot more than us. Health care assistants were on £11000 and £12000. Most HCAs I knew were working two jobs and additional bank shifts to make ends meet. Nowadays, a bank clerk (non-graduate skilled occupation) earns about the same as an experienced HCA or slightly more. A junior staff nurse would be on around £20,000.
Figures in the health service are probably somewhat skewed by very high medical salaries - and the director level salaries. Mind you the CEO of an NHS trust with a yearly budget of just over 100 million would be earning about £147,000. I don't know what the private sector equivalent would be.
Posted by Angloid (# 159) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Pottage:
According to the Office for National Statistics the current average salary in the private sector is £21,528, and in the public sector it is £23,660.
That's because many (most?) low-paid jobs that were formerly in the public sector (cleaners, dinner ladies etc) have been hived off to the private sector.
Posted by rufiki (# 11165) on
:
[Cross-post]
quote:
Originally posted by Pottage:
It's often argued that having a lovely, generous pension is in some way a compensation for public sector staff earning averagely less than those in the private sector. That IS true at some senior grades, but otherwise it's quite inaccurate these days (if it was ever true). According to the Office for National Statistics the current average salary in the private sector is £21,528, and in the public sector it is £23,660.
It's always useful to think about details behind any sets of statistics. Here are a few:
- Tesco is the UK's largest private sector employer (or was last time I read a news item on the subject). All those shelf stackers and checkout serfs probably bring the average down.
- Many low-skill jobs in the public sector have been outsourced to private companies. In my public sector organisation the lowest paid employee is an accounts clerk. The cleaning, catering, maintenance, etc. is done by private sector employees. This brings the average down for the private sector, and up for the public sector.
- 39% of public sector jobs are held by graduates, but only 20% of private sector jobs are. Source. Graduates, on average, are more expensive.
rufiki (who would probably be on double her current salary if she'd become an accountant as the careers ladies had told her)
[ 06. May 2010, 20:10: Message edited by: rufiki ]
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
There is a good chance, if we get a hung parliament, that we might end up with David Miliband as PM on Monday. Now he makes even George Osborne look experienced...
Maybe. However he doesn't make George look intelligent or capable or reasonable. To be fair though, I'm not sure who would...
quote:
Originally posted by Angloid:
quote:
Originally posted by Pottage:
According to the Office for National Statistics the current average salary in the private sector is £21,528, and in the public sector it is £23,660.
That's because many (most?) low-paid jobs that were formerly in the public sector (cleaners, dinner ladies etc) have been hived off to the private sector.
Good point. This blanket assumption that the public sector is well paid is thoroughly annoying. A simple mean for both is not likely to be helpful - because there is a disproportionate number of certain types of job in each sector. Virtually all doctors work in the public sector, all high court judges... and many of the lowest paid jobs done in the public sector are now done by private sub-contractors. A proper like-for-like comparison of training, workload, experience and responsibility may reveal a very different picture. For example, if I take out your appendix, I, in effect get paid £8 for doing so. Furthermore, I just been on a course which is professionally necessary for me which I had to pay for myself and which I am told by HMRC is not tax-deductible either. Oh, and my generous pension - that I have to pay for too.
I'm not complaining that I'm hard up - no doctor in this country is poor. It's just insulting to be told I'm overpaid - come follow me around for a week and then tell me what you think. Oh and meet some of the nurses I work with and try to tell them they're overpaid.
Sorry, rant over.
AFZ
[ 06. May 2010, 20:27: Message edited by: alienfromzog ]
Posted by leo (# 1458) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Thurible:
Lib Dem both locally (no-one bothered to stand as a Labour candidate) and nationally. The latter made me feel slightly sick, to be honest (I really don't like tactical voting), but I thought it important to try and, well, keep the Tories out of this constituency at least.
ETA that which I was originally going to say: I've never had to queue for 20 mins to get into the polling station before. Quite splendid.
Thurible
Well done!
My polling station person (from my church) said it was the busiest poll ever (in his 30 years of doing it).
I am going to bed early after a malt whiskey or 4 - would be too depressing to stay up and watch Cameron.
Then again, if Clegg can pull a similar stunt when Brown is out of the way and the Tories are seeking a larger mandate - that will be intrersting.
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
...
Say the House of Commons looks like:
Con 310
Lab 230
L.D 75
Oth 35 (o/w DUP 10)
So only real option is Conservative minority government with some sort of DUP support.
...
Let's see how this fares!
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
...
Say the House of Commons looks like:
Con 310
Lab 230
L.D 75
Oth 35 (o/w DUP 10)
So only real option is Conservative minority government with some sort of DUP support.
...
Let's see how this fares!
Well - the Conservatives in Canada have survived remarkably well as a minority government with a similar sort of distribution of seats, so there's reason to think that that may be the pattern for us too if that arises.
Back from voting and a restaurant meal. Went early to vote - but the queue was so long that I had to bail and go back after the meal. Apparently there had been a queue from 530 till 930 - when I was in it, it seems to be mostly young (20-35) adults, so it does seem that this campaign has caught fire for that age group for the first time; one can only assume that is the impact of the TV debate. My guess is that will swing it towards the Lib Dems...
Posted by Sober Preacher's Kid (# 12699) on
:
Excerpted Call from the Palace:
HM The Queen calling the Governor General of Canada.
Brenda: Hello Rideau Hall? Buck House here.
GG: 'Zup Your Majesty?
Brenda: Could you please second an advisor or three ASAP? The Westminster Parliament just hung itself like yours has.
GG: I recommend a stiff drink.
Posted by Hairy Biker (# 12086) on
:
quote:
First past the post is on it's last legs
Peter Mandleson on the BBC just now. There's a turn-up for the books!
Given that the Tories have come out against electoral reform, are we going to see a Lib-Lab pact based on achieving the reform the 3rd party have been pushing for since I've been a voter
Posted by Sleepwalker (# 15343) on
:
My polling station was as deathly quiet as it is every time I darken its doorstep but it's good to hear that elsewhere there has been a healthy turnout. The silence here probably has something to do with the fact that if Labour fielded a monkey most people would vote for it so I'm probably wasting my time voting Tory. Still, it's what I voted and I didn't have a single doubt about doing so.
I hope there isn't a hung parliament. I have no desire for the likes of the SNP holding the balance of power in the UK. I want Labour back in like I want an attack of vomiting but I would rather endure that than a hung parliament.
Posted by Pottage (# 9529) on
:
I don't suggest those figures are the last word on the point obviously, just that statistics based upon the circumstances of many millions of people might be a better basis for discussion than the personal circumstances of one or two individual shipmates. In particular, the assumption that - on average - public sector pensions are more generous than private sector ones IS a valid and accurate assumption, even if there are individuals of whom that might not be true.
It's true of course that the private sector includes many people who have low paid jobs, but it also includes all the fat cats in the City, most of the country's lawyers, accountants and other traditionally well-paid professionals. And it's certainly not true to say that the public sector has entirely stripped itself of people with low skilled and low-earning jobs.
These statistics are from ONS not some dodgy political hack. Surely the fact that they seem counter intuitive is grounds for considering their implications rather than using a few personal anecdotes and gut-instinct assumptions to dismiss them?
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Pottage:
I don't suggest those figures are the last word on the point obviously, just that statistics based upon the circumstances of many millions of people might be a better basis for discussion than the personal circumstances of one or two individual shipmates. In particular, the assumption that - on average - public sector pensions are more generous than private sector ones IS a valid and accurate assumption, even if there are individuals of whom that might not be true.
It's true of course that the private sector includes many people who have low paid jobs, but it also includes all the fat cats in the City, most of the country's lawyers, accountants and other traditionally well-paid professionals. And it's certainly not true to say that the public sector has entirely stripped itself of people with low skilled and low-earning jobs.
These statistics are from ONS not some dodgy political hack. Surely the fact that they seem counter intuitive is grounds for considering their implications rather than using a few personal anecdotes and gut-instinct assumptions to dismiss them?
Reasonable point. Except that a simple mean doesn't really tell you anything. You need much more detailed figures.
Remember, the vast majority of people have an above average number of legs...
AFZ
[ 06. May 2010, 22:44: Message edited by: alienfromzog ]
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
What are the odds on there being legal challenges to results based on voters being turned away? Are we looking at the UK equivalent of the 2000 US general election? (Never mind about who has the most MPs, who has the most lawyers?)
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
:
Depends on how marginal the constituency and the Commons is at the end.
There was an appeal in Winchester a few elections back. The party that appealed lost even more in the by-election - it can look like sour grapes.
There may be legal challenges, but for them to get anywhere they would have to convince the Commons and the public that there was the 'wrong result' as opposed to a 'mistake' from which lessons must be learned.
Suppose 200 people were turned away due to a returning officer error and the majority was 20 then there is a reasonable probability of a successful appeal and by-election. The other way round - doesn't matter.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
What are the odds on there being legal challenges to results based on voters being turned away? Are we looking at the UK equivalent of the 2000 US general election? (Never mind about who has the most MPs, who has the most lawyers?)
It's a bloody shambles. The Electoral Commission has already issued an apology and has said it will undertake a review but otherwise it is hiding behind the rules - but the action taken by returning officers that administer the rules appears to vary!
It's even worse in City of Chester, where I have heard that a polling station ran out of ballot papers.
I don't think it matters a damn how few voters were deprived of a chance to vote: if you show up on time, you should get a vote.
Posted by iGeek (# 777) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
And "how can you be a Christian and vote Tory" comments.
Wow. It's like 'mericuhn politics in negative.
"how can you be a Christian and vote Democrat"
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
Chester's marginal, isn't it? Could make a big difference there...
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Chester's marginal, isn't it? Could make a big difference there...
If people aren't able to vote, every seat is a marginal.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
True. But the challenges are more likely to result from marginals.
Meanwhile, I'm taking Leo's advice and nursing a single malt in front of the telly.
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
I don't think it matters a damn how few voters were deprived of a chance to vote: if you show up on time, you should get a vote.
Of course it matters. The hand counting is rarely accurate to the nearest vote, and could be out by as much as 50 votes. If the majority is 10,000+ it doesn't really matter. Even with second recounts in close seats the numbers can move by 5 or 10 votes.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
It looks like the Greens have taken Brighton Pavilion...
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
I don't think it matters a damn how few voters were deprived of a chance to vote: if you show up on time, you should get a vote.
Of course it matters. The hand counting is rarely accurate to the nearest vote, and could be out by as much as 50 votes. If the majority is 10,000+ it doesn't really matter. Even with second recounts in close seats the numbers can move by 5 or 10 votes.
OK then, it might not matter as far as determining the result is concerned but it may well discourage people from voting in the future. All the politicians agree that every vote counts and they want to encourage voting, so it is vital that everyone who wants to cast a vote gets a chance to do so.
Posted by birdie (# 2173) on
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quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
There was an appeal in Winchester a few elections back. The party that appealed lost even more in the by-election - it can look like sour grapes.
<snip>
Suppose 200 people were turned away due to a returning officer error and the majority was 20 then there is a reasonable probability of a successful appeal and by-election. The other way round - doesn't matter.
That's pretty much how it happened in Winchester, as I recall. I was a student there at the time. They recounted and recounted, and finally declared, late the following day I think, a Lib Dem victory with a majority of 2.
The Tories (it had previously been considered a safe Tory seat) immediately went round producing little old ladies who would have voted Tory if only they could have got out to vote. So the Tories appealed and then lost spectacularly at the by-election. Lib Dem majority of 21500. It was wonderful.
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
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It looks absolutely third world banana republic. It is unacceptable, and heads must roll at the relevant councils and Electoral Commission.
It would appear that many of the councils who broke the rules and had inadequate resources were run by Labour or the Lib Dems. The central rules and commission were set up by the Labour Government. It is quite likely that a number of the excess votes lost would have been drummed up by Labour canvassers. So at least it is cock-up not conspiracy in terms of political bias.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
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It's getting worse. From the BBC election feed:
0043 BBC reporter Danny Carpenter in York says hundreds of postal ballots have gone missing in the city. The problems are being blamed on a printing error and a temporary closure at the local postal sorting office. In York Outer, the Lib Dems had a notional majority of just 203, meaning the missing votes could have a significant impact and pave the way for a losing party to challenge tonight's result in the courts.
What a five-star, ocean-going fuck-up. It reminds me of the "hanging chads" of G W Bush, 2001.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
[qb]
When Nick Clegg says that 'it's time for a change', the response is 'well, he would say that, wouldn't he'. To my mind, however, it happens to be true.
But is the change good? for instance they intend to introduce road pricing . This is hugely expensive way to collect tax and control cars (why not increase the price of petrol instead?). It will cause 'Rat runs' down minor roads. Every car in the coutnry will need to be tracked. What does this say about civil liberties?[/qb
I would have thought that economic meltdown and Matrix-like government databases were perhaps more important. But it's good to know that you have your own priorities.
quote:
Not only do they have a mad Transport policy they have a lunatic economic policy.
Yes Nick clegg and Vince Cable are nice people and very bright it's just that the Liberal Democrat party policy will take the country into a left turn onto the road to ruin.
Not a very good point, given the state that the British economy is in. It's actually quite easy to run an economy without letting the banks run away with it. Ask the NZ government.
On reflection, I find this election campaign to have been profoundly depressing. What one might expect to be the most important issues - the economy and Europe - have hardly been debated. All we have learned is that politicians should look straight into the camera if they want to increase their vote.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
The other thing is 'change to what?'. Lib Dem policy on a lot of things appears to change from week to week and region to region.
Sometimes joining the Euro is a good long-term goal, sometimes it isn't. Sometimes giving an amnesty to 600,000 illegal immigrants is a bold but sound idea, sometimes that figure is denied. Sometimes a coalition with Gordon Brown is out of the question, sometimes it is quite possible.
It would be a start if they could actually be pinned down on some of this stuff before then deciding whether they represent a change for the better.
You've just picked an example of a long-term LD policy. I imagine that, in the long run, Euro entry is still a good idea*, and I have no doubt that the Lib Dems have not made entry a manifesto commitment, because they know that the voters will not want it.
(speaking for myself, I favour it - during the global stockmarket crash, it was interesting to watch sterling slide - it is no longer a major world currency)
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
It's getting worse. From the BBC election feed:
0043 BBC reporter Danny Carpenter in York says hundreds of postal ballots have gone missing in the city. The problems are being blamed on a printing error and a temporary closure at the local postal sorting office. In York Outer, the Lib Dems had a notional majority of just 203, meaning the missing votes could have a significant impact and pave the way for a losing party to challenge tonight's result in the courts.
What a five-star, ocean-going fuck-up. It reminds me of the "hanging chads" of G W Bush, 2001.
Bloody debacle!
Posted by Rosa Winkel (# 11424) on
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Christine Russell in Chester had a majority of about 900 votes.
Used to live there. In 1997 I was getting out the vote.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
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So a by-election's pretty mandatory there.
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
So a by-election's pretty mandatory there.
I think it would be better to wait and see the result and if there is an election petition first. A by-election as a result is still relatively unlikely.
The whole Parliament might have collapsed before there is any time for that!
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
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Conservatives have 'won' Chester on the face of it.
Posted by Michael Astley (# 5638) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
It's a bloody shambles. The Electoral Commission has already issued an apology and has said it will undertake a review but otherwise it is hiding behind the rules - but the action taken by returning officers that administer the rules appears to vary!
Their spokeswoman on the Beeb certainly appeared to be hiding behind the rules with the strict 10 o' clock closure policy. So it seems that results may be challenged both because people were not allowed to vote in some places and because they were allowed to vote in others, (where objections could be raised that extending the voting time meant that a) rules were broken and b) the voters were potentially exposed to the exit poll result broadcast).
quote:
It's even worse in City of Chester, where I have heard that a polling station ran out of ballot papers.
I think it's Liverpool (among others) that ran out of ballot papers. Chester is, IIRC, where people who had registered to vote were refused their right to do so because nobody had bothered to update the list used at the polling stations. The voters were just turned away.
quote:
I don't think it matters a damn how few voters were deprived of a chance to vote: if you show up on time, you should get a vote.
I agree. There is absolutely no excuse for what has happened.
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Conservatives have 'won' Chester on the face of it.
There is no 'won' about it.
The Returning Officer declared the result with a majority of 2,583. The second place candidate and agent would have had an immediate opportunity to appeal or ask for a recount, and it would appear that they have not done so if we have a result before 3am.
I would be very surprised if there is a formal petition supported by that candidate which finds 2,584 missing votes. Until and unless that position changes it is an unqualified win.
Posted by Rosa Winkel (# 11424) on
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I know some good Labour people who I've fought on the streets with, people who work hard for their communities. I feel sorry for them.
I expected it, though. The Tories needed a minor swing.
Posted by Beeswax Altar (# 11644) on
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I have a question. I've seen different bits of information but nothing definite.
It is being reported over here that exit polls indicate the Conservatives will not have a majority. Now, as I understand it, the Queen technically appoints the PM. She has to appoint the person who gains the support of parliament. One source says that the incumbent PM gets the first opportunity to form a government. Another source says the Queen is most likely to ask the leader of the party with the most seats to form a government. In this case, they are two different people. So, which is right? Does the Queen really actually get to decide who has first crack at being PM?
Plus, if the exit polls are correct, Labor and Lib-Dems do not have enough combined seats to reach a majority. The Conservatives only need 20 or so votes. If they are to form a government, where would they get them? I'm not even sure if that's how it works.
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
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In the event of a hung parliament, the incumbent Prime Minister stays in office until he resigns or loses a vote of confidence in the House of Commons.
If he goes, then the Queen would invite the person most likely to be able to form a government that could have the vote of confidence in the House of Commons.
Normally that would be the Leader of the largest party, not yet invited, unless it would be clear that he could not. Exceptionally, it might be someone else.
The Queen should not be put in an awkward position of having to make a choice. So the Cabinet Secretary would negotiate with the Privy Councillors involved to try and resolve the issue before that situation arises.
Posted by Sober Preacher's Kid (# 12699) on
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Strictly speaking, in a minority situation, the sitting Prime Minister can choose to remain Prime Minster. This is known as "Meeting the House". This mean that Gordon Brown expects to assemble a working majority by the time Parliament convenes.
A "Working Majority" can constitute one of two two things. First, it can be a formal coalition where two parties sit as the government, and the Cabinet consists of members from both parties. The Canadian province of British Columbia has had this in the past and the federal Parliament of Australia regularly features this with the the Liberal/National Coalition.
Alternatively Labour can rely on a second party for support during confidence votes, usually by agreeing to a stated legislative agenda, but without being a formal coalition with a coalition cabinet. This happened in Ontario in 1985. The Progressive Conservatives won a minority, met the Legislature, and were forced out by the combined votes of the Liberals and NDP. The Liberals/NDP had an agreement on a legislative agenda but no formal coalition. The Lieutenant Governor allowed the transition without a second election.
Thirdly, Gordon Brown can concede victory to David Cameron and leave all the problems of finding a working majority to him.
Constitutionally, it is Brown's choice as to whether he will resign the Ministry tonight or not. Under normal circumstances this is a no-brainer, but not this time.
If David Cameron is unhappy if Gordon Brown does not resign he can't declare himself Prime Minister (yet), his only recourse is to meet the House of Commons and bring down the Government at the first opportunity. The first Money Bill or Supply Day would provide this opportunity. Money Bills are confidence matter by definition, and Supply Days allow the Opposition to set the agenda and bring forth a Confidence Motion.
Posted by Sober Preacher's Kid (# 12699) on
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quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
In the event of a hung parliament, the incumbent Prime Minister stays in office until he resigns or loses a vote of confidence in the House of Commons.
If he goes, then the Queen would invite the person most likely to be able to form a government that could have the vote of confidence in the House of Commons.
Normally that would be the Leader of the largest party, not yet invited, unless it would be clear that he could not. Exceptionally, it might be someone else.
The Queen should not be put in an awkward position of having to make a choice. So the Cabinet Secretary would negotiate with the Privy Councillors involved to try and resolve the issue before that situation arises.
The advice of who to invite is given by the outgoing Prime Minister. The Cabinet Secretary as a Civil Servant should not be involved in such a political decision. That would be a clear breach of Responsible Government.
You are right about the list of usual suspects, but the key question is not really who is to be invited, it is whether that person can form a Government that will survive a Vote of Confidence. Remember every money bill is a Confidence measure. The fate of the Government lies not in Buck House but on the floor of the Commons.
Posted by Rosa Winkel (# 11424) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Rosa Winkel:
I know some good Labour people who I've fought on the streets with, people who work hard for their communities. I feel sorry for them.
I expected it, though. The Tories needed a minor swing.
Without sleep and with vodka, I forgot to mention that I was talking about Chester.
Posted by Sober Preacher's Kid (# 12699) on
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BBC talking to Jack Straw right now, apparently Gordon Brown "is the Prime Minister" and will be "talking to advisors" in the morning.
Looks like he's chosen to Meet the House.
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Sober Preacher's Kid:
quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
In the event of a hung parliament, the incumbent Prime Minister stays in office until he resigns or loses a vote of confidence in the House of Commons.
If he goes, then the Queen would invite the person most likely to be able to form a government that could have the vote of confidence in the House of Commons.
Normally that would be the Leader of the largest party, not yet invited, unless it would be clear that he could not. Exceptionally, it might be someone else.
The Queen should not be put in an awkward position of having to make a choice. So the Cabinet Secretary would negotiate with the Privy Councillors involved to try and resolve the issue before that situation arises.
The advice of who to invite is given by the outgoing Prime Minister. The Cabinet Secretary as a Civil Servant should not be involved in such a political decision. That would be a clear breach of Responsible Government.
You are right about the list of usual suspects, but the key question is not really who is to be invited, it is whether that person can form a Government that will survive a Vote of Confidence. Remember every money bill is a Confidence measure. The fate of the Government lies not in Buck House but on the floor of the Commons.
This is the United Kingdom not Canada. The situation is not identical.
The key confidence vote will be on the Queen's Speech debate, which is on 25 May.
The Cabinet Secretary has perfectly properly offered to facilitate the process of negotiation.
Events will take their course over the weekend. Real politics may trump the constitutional niceties.
Posted by Duo Seraphim (# 256) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Sober Preacher's Kid:
BBC talking to Jack Straw right now, apparently Gordon Brown "is the Prime Minister" and will be "talking to advisors" in the morning.
Looks like he's chosen to Meet the House.
I think that might be a little premature to call that. But it is looking like a hung Parliament, with the Conservatives falling 21 or so seats short of outright majority.
The Lib Dems will play a central role in the next few days and in the lead up to May 25. But they have also lost seats to the Conservatives - including to my surprise my old home of Harrogate and Knaresborough. That's been Lib Dem for some time - indeed IIRC it was lost (deservedly) for the Conservatives by Norman Lamont.
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
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Green Party just took Brighton Pavilion
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
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... and the BNP didn't take Barking
[ 07. May 2010, 04:58: Message edited by: Alwyn ]
Posted by Trisagion (# 5235) on
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It was worth staying up just to see Paxo interview Evan Harris.
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on
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I'm up after too little sleep. And I still have no idea what just happened. Or what's happening now.
At least Radio 4 seems to share my confusion.
Posted by Ariel (# 58) on
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As someone on Radio 4 said this morning, "The people have spoken. We’re just not sure what they've said."
What a night, what a morning - we've had a general election and nobody has won.
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
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Safe in the knowledge that my opinoin will make no difference what I think they should do is:
- Labour led lib-lab coalition with a time limited commitment - no longer than 24mths
- Carry out the spending review and pass a budget
- Implement voting reform
- On completeing these tasks, call an election on the basis of the new voting system
The second election will almost certainly lead to a Tory government. But having passed the budget through the house should allow for a consensus - however forced - so that we have the stability of economic planning needed for the financial markets.
Also, these solutions would ultimately favour the conservatives - all parties take responsibility for the cuts and then they get the benefit of the increase in the share of the vote.
Posted by Malin (# 11769) on
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It's not often you wake up and find you haven't missed the end of the election. So close in places.
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
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Labour, liberal and the nationalists do we think ? After all, Labour did deliver devolution ...
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
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Humble pie consumption time - I am comforted by the fact that Ken and I are both eating from the same dish having both made the same wrong prediction
Posted by Malin (# 11769) on
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Of the remaining seats does anyone know which way they are expected to go? Are they marginals or mostly huge majorities?
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Ariel:
As someone on Radio 4 said this morning, "The people have spoken. We’re just not sure what they've said."
That was David Milliband. A great quote.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
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Re forming a government, my understanding that Gordon Brown remains Prime Minister until relieved of office, and so he has first dibs at attempting to form a government.
Posted by Spawn (# 4867) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
Humble pie consumption time - I am comforted by the fact that Ken and I are both eating from the same dish having both made the same wrong prediction
I predicted wrongly that there would be a wafer-thin Conservative majority.
As for the message from the voters - there isn't one single message. We are a deeply divided society and that is what the election results indicate.
Posted by Yerevan (# 10383) on
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Cod, yes apparently.
Three possibilities IMO:
A) A 'rainbow coalition' of the Labour, the Lib Dems, various nationalists and Caroline Lucas (the Greens' have taken Brighton).
B) A Tory/Lib Dem coalition
C) Tory minority government propped up by the DUP.
The likelihood of A is increased by the fact that Labour gets first go at cobbling together a coalition. It would be horribly unwieldy though and would involve buying off lots of small interest groups. B is what we'll probably get. C would be horrible (from my leftish point of view anyway).
The BNP have got nowhere (no surprise). Caroline Lucas wasn't that much of a surprise either, though I don't think its as big a deal as the Greens will make out. Its an unusual constituency and they're still pretty marginal across the UK (admittedly I'm biased...the Greens are powerful on my local city council and haven't exactly been good for the city).
Posted by Spawn (# 4867) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Yerevan:
Cod, yes apparently.
Three possibilities IMO:
A) A 'rainbow coalition' of the Labour, the Lib Dems, various nationalists and Caroline Lucas (the Greens' have taken Brighton).
B) A Tory/Lib Dem coalition
C) Tory minority government propped up by the DUP.
The likelihood of A is increased by the fact that Labour gets first go at cobbling together a coalition. It would be horribly unwieldy though and would involve buying off lots of small interest groups. B is what we'll probably get. C would be horrible (from my leftish point of view anyway).
The BNP have got nowhere (no surprise). Caroline Lucas wasn't that much of a surprise either, though I don't think its as big a deal as the Greens will make out. Its an unusual constituency and they're still pretty marginal across the UK (admittedly I'm biased...the Greens are powerful on my local city council and haven't exactly been good for the city).
Whatever happens we'll be voting in another General Election in the next few years. My guess and preference is for Conservative minority rule but not with any substantial handouts to Northern Ireland - that would simply be unjust when swingeing cuts of our bloated public sector are in order for the rest of the UK.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
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I think a) is not made so unlikely, as the parties concerned do have a fair bit in common. Also, the smaller parties would be sensible not to forgo the chance of government simply by riding a hobby horse too hard. I think, however, Clegg has boxed himself in somewhat by saying that he can't work with Gordo.
Perhaps Millipede as PM with Vince Cable as Chancellor?
b) sounds a non-starter, given that the Tories are (predictably enough) not interested in electoral reform.
Perhaps we will have a small dose of c) while Cameron attempts to get his ratings up, whereupon he will call another election to get a working majority.
Posted by Barnabas62 (# 9110) on
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I think "first past the post" is now a "bust", which is probably the best thing to have come out of last night. I think Cameron will become PM with LibDem acquiescence, provided they find the right form of words and promises re electoral reform. If that can't be done, it's a bit of a mess.
But I reckon it can be. All Cameron has to do is pick up the phone. If Clegg has any sense, he'll resist the "temptation" to go for a LibLab pact, which would probably be seen as a coalition of the night's losers - and cause losses next time. Better to let Cameron pick up the "poisoned chalice". Game on.
I'm also wondering if some of the voting shambles (which seems likely to produce a few re-runs) might be an x-factor in all of this. The numbers are very close, even when one looks at possible coalitions.
Posted by The Exegesis Fairy (# 9588) on
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The DUP won 8 seats (Sinn Fein have either 4 or 5, depending on this recount). That's not enough for a Con/DUP majority, unless the Conservatives win all the remaining seats available.
Plus the DUP will wring crippling concessions out of them. Northern Ireland is an expensive proposition.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
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Cameron's problem with Clegg is that he can't carry his party to do a deal on electoral reform, which places him in a weak position re negotiating with the Lib Dems. The alternaive is a 'coalition of the losers' which is more unpalatable morally but I regret to say is the more likely outcome, albeit with Other Dave (Miliband) as PM rather than Gord-help-us.
Worst possible outcome for business and the economy.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
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An Israeli perspective. Note that last paragraph:
quote:
And there is also some agreement that the British system, as Lord Mandelson said on Friday morning, “is on its last legs.” Ironically, he and other political leaders are looking to proportional representation as a panacea. We here, of course, know better.
Posted by Barnabas62 (# 9110) on
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I agree with The Exegesis Fairy. I'm not sure Cameron should go courting Welsh, Scottish and/or Irish parties - they'd want economic preference deals which would play very badly for the Tories, given their huge gains in England.
Nope, I reckon it's a "no-brainer" for him to seek some accommodation with the LibDems - and give away as little as possible. Matt, you're right that it might not win, given the constraints on Cameron - but I'm sure he's got to try. Heck, the Tories are huge winners on the popular vote front. The only way to lose next time is to be seen to lack the will to accommodate.
[ 07. May 2010, 08:49: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]
Posted by The Exegesis Fairy (# 9588) on
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Then again, Barnabas, he's going to have to give SOMETHING. It's within the power of the Conservatives to command a majority, but it's in their hands. Don't give the little'uns what they want? Oh...well, sorry. Never mind. Lib/Lab coalition it is...
The question is, how much are the Conservatives prepared to give for a chance at governing? Pretty much any coalition government is going to include the Lib Dems. (Is that electoral reform I hear knocking? Probably not, but I'd like it if it were. More likely it's crazy Aunt Ethel).
Posted by Yerevan (# 10383) on
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quote:
I think a) is not made so unlikely, as the parties concerned do have a fair bit in common. Also, the smaller parties would be sensible not to forgo the chance of government simply by riding a hobby horse too hard. I think, however, Clegg has boxed himself in somewhat by saying that he can't work with Gordo.
Perhaps Millipede as PM with Vince Cable as Chancellor?
I'm not sure the Lib Dems have boxed themselves in. Gordon's Brown's so unpopular that they couldn't possibly be seen to put him back in power anyway. It will be interesting to see if a Lib-Lab pact with Plaid Cymru, Caroline Lucas and suitable Northern Irish MPs (i.e. the SDLP, the one independent liberal unionist MP and the Alliance Party) would give them a majority. It just about might.
quote:
b) sounds a non-starter, given that the Tories are (predictably enough) not interested in electoral reform.
I'm not sure. The Tory alternative would be to govern by the skin of their teeth with DUP support. There's a few problems with this. Firstly, the DUP have already named their price (complete Northern Irish immunity from cuts) which would be very very hard to sell to the rest of the UK. Secondly, a coalition with the party of Paisley would hurt Cameron's attempts to modernise the Tories. Thirdly the Tories are already united to a rival unionist party (the UUP). Clegg and Cameron on the other hand could both sell compromise with each other as necesary for the greater good (they are the only two parties capable of forming a stable coalition). And on certain issues (civil liberties, the enviroment) the Cameron modernisers aren't that far from the Lib Dems anyway.
Posted by Yerevan (# 10383) on
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ES, Israel's hardly a typical representative democracy though is it?
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
If Clegg has any sense, he'll resist the "temptation" to go for a LibLab pact, which would probably be seen as a coalition of the night's losers - and cause losses next time. Better to let Cameron pick up the "poisoned chalice". Game on.
I think either way there are going to be Lib Dem losses at the next election.
Scenario 1. The Conservatives form a minority government. They go into campaign mode and and insist that the country's finances are in such a mess (which they are) that only their medicine will cure it (I suspect many will swallow this one). Cameron then calls an election. The Conservatives' vote increases and they are re-elected having taken a swathe of seats lost to the Lib Dems in 97, 01 and 05. Other Lib Dem voters swing back to Labour, and leave the Lib Dems were they were in the 1970s - 16% of the vote and about fifteen seats or less. Electoral reform goes off the agenda for the next fifty years.
Scenario 2: Labour, the Lib Dems, the Greens, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and possibly Alliance NI cobble together a coalition. The junior partners insist on electoral reform. They all get smashed at the next election in terms of the popular vote, but remain with as many or more seats in Parliament under AV+. In time, their vote share recovers.
Clegg should go with Labour.
[ 07. May 2010, 08:52: Message edited by: Cod ]
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
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But, Barnabas, what could Cameron possibly offer Clegg to tempt him except a committment to electoral reform?
Posted by The Exegesis Fairy (# 9588) on
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Argh, edit window.
Sorry Barnabas, you made most of my points already, but half your post didn't appear on my screen. Oops.
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
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With 290 Conservative seats, 35 seats left to declare and the need to achieve 326 seats to win, a hung Parliament now seems certain.
In July 2007, there were serious negotiations between the Conservatives, Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats about forming a coalition in the Welsh Assembly. But they could not agree on issues such as the introduction of proportional representation (for local elections). Apparently, the Welsh Conservatives and David Cameron were willing to consider this proposal but the Shadow Cabinet wouldn't accept it (source: Vernon Bagdanor, 'The New British Constitution').
I don't think that the Conservatives would accept PR for Westminster elections. Would it be safe to assume that PR would be the price of a formal Conservative-Lib Dem coalition? In the absence of a coalition, will there be an informal understanding between them, or something else?
Posted by Pottage (# 9529) on
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quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
Reasonable point. Except that a simple mean doesn't really tell you anything. You need much more detailed figures.
Remember, the vast majority of people have an above average number of legs...
Actually, in context a simple mean can tell you plenty. If someone is arguing from a particular instance (the experience of their own employment history or the performance of their own pension for example) on the implicit basis that this is representative of the situation for most people, a mean derived from the circumstances of millions of people might show that this is inaccurate.
Anyway, back to the fallout. If it can be put together, I think the least bad outcome would be a Conservative/LibDem pact. Only two partners' differing aspirations would need to be balanced which is potentially no more fractious than some individual parties with disparate wings and power bases. There's the possibility that such a government might be able to hold itself together for a while before unravelling over their inherent incompatibility and resulting in a further election. A minimum of a full fiscal year before we have to go through another election would be useful in terms of stability.
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Yerevan:
ES, Israel's hardly a typical representative democracy though is it?
There's PR and there's PR. I'd be quite happy with single member constituencies elected by transferable vote. I don't want lists, as they disconnect voters from representatives, and favour party patronage.
Posted by Yerevan (# 10383) on
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Doc Tor,
Agreed. Lists etc are horrible. I grew up with the Irish system of PR, which works well (IMO), doesn't involve lists and was (ironically enough) invented for us by the British as part of the settlement leading to Irish independence back in 1922. Maybe you guys could have it back...
Posted by Uriel (# 2248) on
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My first post on this thread. I was acting as presiding officer on a polling station all of yesterday. Regarding the queues and people being turned away in a few seats, the law is quite simple - the polling station closes at 10pm, and anyone not issued with a vote at 10pm (even if they are in the polling station) cannot vote. It is not for presiding officers to arbitrarily change the law according to extraordinary local circumstances as and when they see fit - that really would leave the results open to legal challenge.
However, if I had seen a long queue and knew that I couldn't process everyone in time for the 10 o'clock deadline then I would do the following:
- tell everyone in the queue that they will be given a ballot paper and they should come into the polling station.
- Lock the polling station doors at 10 o'clock
- give everyone a voting paper but announce that it may only be cast once they have also been checked on the electoral register
- only let the voters cast their vote after they have been double checked that they are on the electoral register. It is this checking that takes the time, especially if the voter hasn't brought their polling card.
- anyone who isn't on the electoral register for that polling station (e.g. they turned up to the wrong polling station or didn't register in time) will have to return the voting paper issued to them which is then cancelled as a spoilt ballot.
- Everyone else would have to wait patiently while the checking process is gone through, but they will at least have been given their voting paper legally and be able to cast it legally.
I didn't have to resort to this irregular if legal measure as we only had 3 voters in the last half hour, despite a strong turnout overall. No student population surging out of the bars to vote in the last hour...
As for reports that some stations ran out of ballot papers, that is just poor management. I have always had enough ballots in case of 100% turnout, and a few to spare in case of re-issues for spoilt ballots.
Cheers,
Uriel
(Who is knackered after a 16 hour day at the polling station, followed by staying up to watch results come in).
Posted by Barnabas62 (# 9110) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
But, Barnabas, what could Cameron possibly offer Clegg to tempt him except a committment to electoral reform?
A referendum this year on electoral reform? Even if the Tories said "we'll vote against" (which they probably would), the general "let the people decide" would be a popular line. Clegg might buy that. Maybe with a few sweeteners thrown in?
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on
:
(to Uriel)
God bless you, sir.
Get some kip in, as we may be doing it all again sooner than usual.
[ 07. May 2010, 09:05: Message edited by: Doc Tor ]
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Yerevan:
Doc Tor,
Agreed. Lists etc are horrible. I grew up with the Irish system of PR, which works well (IMO), doesn't involve lists and was (ironically enough) invented for us by the British as part of the settlement leading to Irish independence back in 1922. Maybe you guys could have it back...
Actually it was pioneered in Australia in the nineteenth century.
Posted by Malin (# 11769) on
:
Do you think they have all their scenarios planned out in the backrooms? Surely they must have seen a hung result as possible/probable? I know they can't choose a path until the final count is in but there must be war games on all this?
Just wondering how long it will be until there is clear leadership and enough stability for the markets.
Posted by North East Quine (# 13049) on
:
It feels as though I was part of a different election north of the Border. Labour were actually increasing their majority in some Scottish seats, although the oft-predicted scenario of no Scottish Conservative MPs hasn't happened - Mundell remains our single Tory.
Obviously, it's annoying for Scotland to vote for a left wing party and end up with a right wing one, but it must also be annoying for English right wingers that they're stuck with a solid block of Scottish Labour MPs.
Currently the situation in Scotland is: 41 Labour, 10 Lib Dem (expected to be 11 once the Argyll declares), 6 SNP, 1 Conservative. Take Scotland out of the equation, and there would be a clear Conservative majority.
How frustrating is this for English Conservatives?
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
Nick Clegg is saying that the Conservatives deserve the first opportunity to seek a coalition with the Lib Dems (BBC).
Posted by Rosa Winkel (# 11424) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariel:
As someone on Radio 4 said this morning, "The people have spoken. We’re just not sure what they've said."
That was David Milliband. A great quote.
No, it was Ashcroft.
Posted by Barnabas62 (# 9110) on
:
Smart speech by Clegg. The ball is in Cameron's court. Any "LibLab pact" can only now follow a prior failure of the Tories to get the LibDems onside. A failure by Cameron to have "meaningful negotiations" with the LibDems would probably rebound on the Tories, rather than the LibDems. Clegg got the word out first, and the word confirmed what he said before the results were out.
[ 07. May 2010, 09:52: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by North East Quine:
How frustrating is this for English Conservatives?
Hugely. West Lothian rears its head again.
Frankly, I think the best outcome for Britain now would be for Brown to attempt to cling onto power by his grubby little fingertips for as long as he can, and despite the clear statement from the voters that we want him gone. The popular backlash in the inevitable repeat election that would happen no more than a year later would take the Conservatives to a clear victory, and a clear mandate for change.
What a mess though. I can't understand how so many people in this country choose to believe scare stories, spin and propoganda over the actual evidence - lies, corruption, bureaucracy, centralisation and the constant assault on freedoms and liberties - we've all seen in the last 13 years.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
Or perhaps Ashdown? (I'm sure I saw it attributed to Milliband, but it's more an Ashdown thing to say).
Nice to see, on the same blog, a comment from Ashcroft saying that he will step down from the Tories. Good riddance.
Posted by The Exegesis Fairy (# 9588) on
:
My favourite moment (born and bred in Northern Ireland as I am) was when the DUP leader was ousted by the ALLIANCE party, winning their first-ever seat. Brilliant moment, seriously.
(The Alliance party: not unionist or nationalist, more, 'Wouldn't it be nice if everyone was nice'. Basically the LibDems in Northern Ireland.)
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by North East Quine:
How frustrating is this for English Conservatives?
Hugely. West Lothian rears its head again.
Frankly, I think the best outcome for Britain now would be for Brown to attempt to cling onto power by his grubby little fingertips for as long as he can, and despite the clear statement from the voters that we want him gone. The popular backlash in the inevitable repeat election that would happen no more than a year later would take the Conservatives to a clear victory, and a clear mandate for change.
Much as I'd like to see a Conservative majority, I think the scenario you've outlined will be disastrous for the economy.
Posted by +Chad (# 5645) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
(to Uriel)
God bless you, sir.
Hear, hear. Common sense and sanity.
quote:
Get some kip in, as we may be doing it all again sooner than usual.
but I fear you are right.
Posted by Rosa Winkel (# 11424) on
:
I think it's worse for the Scottish Tories. They had a very bad night.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Much as I'd like to see a Conservative majority, I think the scenario you've outlined will be disastrous for the economy.
Sadly, I don't think there's much that can be done about that now. Whichever coalition ends up running the show, there will be so much horse trading and behind-closed-doors machinations that market confidence may struggle to recover.
Posted by Spawn (# 4867) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Smart speech by Clegg. The ball is in Cameron's court. Any "LibLab pact" can only now follow a prior failure of the Tories to get the LibDems onside. A failure by Cameron to have "meaningful negotiations" with the LibDems would probably rebound on the Tories, rather than the LibDems. Clegg got the word out first, and the word confirmed what he said before the results were out.
It wouldn't necessarily rebound on the Conservatives, if the LibDems insisted on PR (a secondary issue) while the economy (the only thing that really matters) was going down the pan. The markets will punish even a few days inaction.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Yerevan:
ES, Israel's hardly a typical representative democracy though is it?
No but it's negative experiences with PR have been replicated in both France and Italy which have both moved away it (See here for the Italian History and the French and elsewhere 2 round system).
One scenario for the future:
Brown meets the House and loses a vote of no confidence. Cameron is invited to form a government and fails to gain support, so a Labour minority returns to power, makes serious proposals for cuts and is ejected, leading to a Conservative majority i.e. Cameron should play the long game. The Lib Dems can't support a Labour government headed by Brown, but on his resignation Cameron must have the next try - Labour can't expect to be invited to try for a new government if Brown resigns as leader, which is the minimum Clegg can agree to, having committed himself to wanting change if Labour lost both the popular vote and the number of seats.
Posted by Barnabas62 (# 9110) on
:
Spawn
I've no doubt that calculation is exercising David Cameron and his advisers right now. Alligators and swamps? Of course Clegg and Cameron will find some ways of agreeing on an emergency budget - else they will both lose. But Cameron cannot afford to lose the "meally-mouthed" contest. And being "mean" on electoral reform would, I think, look like that. The promise of a referendum would be a small, swamp-draining, price to pay for tackling the alligators together. Clegg could concede a lot on an emergency budget in exchange for that, and still come out looking good.
Posted by Gildas (# 525) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by The Exegesis Fairy:
My favourite moment (born and bred in Northern Ireland as I am) was when the DUP leader was ousted by the ALLIANCE party, winning their first-ever seat. Brilliant moment, seriously.
(The Alliance party: not unionist or nationalist, more, 'Wouldn't it be nice if everyone was nice'. Basically the LibDems in Northern Ireland.)
Hilarious. The Alliance Party for years have been the party of opposition to sectarianism and terrorism and therefore no-one took them seriously. The Tories even introduced PR into Northern Ireland in order to give them a leg up with absolutely no discernable effect whatsoever.
Then the whole coo-coo-ca-choo Mrs Robinson thang kicks in and suddenly they've defenestrated the leader of the DUP.
As the Alliance Party are part of the Liberal International and would, presumably, sit and vote with the Damn Libs there is a distinct possibility that Mrs Robinson's indiscretion has not merely propelled Ms Long into the House of Commons but quite possibly onto the government benches.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
Sorry - should have explained that the French system replaced the PR which was blamed for the weakness of the 3rd and 4th Republic governments from 1870 until 1958
Posted by Spawn (# 4867) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Spawn
I've no doubt that calculation is exercising David Cameron and his advisers right now. Alligators and swamps? Of course Clegg and Cameron will find some ways of agreeing on an emergency budget - else they will both lose. But Cameron cannot afford to lose the "meally-mouthed" contest. And being "mean" on electoral reform would, I think, look like that. The promise of a referendum would be a small, swamp-draining, price to pay for tackling the alligators together. Clegg could concede a lot on an emergency budget in exchange for that, and still come out looking good.
mmm, having lost MPs, I'm not sure that the LibDems are in as strong a negotiating position as people seem to think.
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
... market confidence may struggle to recover.
quote:
Originally posted by Spawn:
... The markets will punish even a few days inaction.
'The markets'? Are they totally unrelated to the people who crashed our economy into a wall and demanded an £850 billion bailout, leaving us with £799 billion in government debt?
We don't talk about health or education workers as 'the health' or 'the education' and let them dictate how our political leaders should respond to a hung Parliament. Maybe it's time to stop talking about City traders as if they were some sort of natural, neutral and impersonal force? Maybe someone should tell 'the markets' that they had one vote each, the same as everybody else.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
They're also the engine that may (or may not, depending on what sort of government is formed) create the jobs and business that is so badly needed by the economy.
Posted by Barnabas62 (# 9110) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Spawn:
mmm, having lost MPs, I'm not sure that the LibDems are in as strong a negotiating position as people seem to think.
Despite gaining votes? No, the paradox of this is that with an increased share of the vote coupled with a loss of seats, Clegg looks to have good case for electoral reform. And I think the TV debates helped him as well. And he did look pretty statesmanlike and grown up this morning.
On BBC TV "Paxo" has just had a hilarious conversation with Boris Johnson, suggesting that some electoral reform concession would be a small price to pay. Boris produced some great metaphors about meccanos and sausages, but in the process produced a comment that the result was the electorate's way of punishing Labour, Tories and LibDems! Not bad. A certain humility is required. And given that, as Boris put it, most of the meat in the government sausage will be Tory meat, they are going to have to give something, however painful they might find that. If Clegg plays his cards right, he'll get something good out of this.
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
Fair point - yes, what City workers do has great value. I have no problem with listening to them about the economic effects of a delayed process. Their views deserve to be given appropriate (but not excessive) weight.
I do have a problem, with City workers demanding a quick outcome, if that leads to rushed, bad decision-making by party leaders in their current state of crumpledness.
Mr Cameron is bright and energetic, but he just campaigned through the night. I imagine that all the party leaders are totally worn out. Would you want to make vitally important decisions about your own life when you were totally exhausted? What about making decisions that will affect the lives of millions of other people for years to come?
Posted by Yerevan (# 10383) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
Sorry - should have explained that the French system replaced the PR which was blamed for the weakness of the 3rd and 4th Republic governments from 1870 until 1958
To be fair those governments would have been pretty weak for reasons that had nothing to do with PR. For example the 3rd Republic was deeply divided (Catholics/monarchists v republicans plus the rise of socialism and a range of anarchists and nutty rightists) and had just lost a war and two provinces to Berlin. One problem with assessing the impact of PR is separating it out from all the other factors at work. The Irish Republic is an example of a country that has remained remarkably stable under PR, despite the destabilising effects of the Northern Ireland troubles, relative poverty for most of the 20th century and a nasty civil war in the 1920s which divided the country for half a century. Italy is an example of a country that hasn't. In both cases deeper forces were probably at work stabilising or destabilising the situation. The question isn't how PR has worked in country X or Y. Its how it would work in the UK.
Posted by Spawn (# 4867) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Despite gaining votes? No, the paradox of this is that with an increased share of the vote coupled with a loss of seats, Clegg looks to have good case for electoral reform. And I think the TV debates helped him as well. And he did look pretty statesmanlike and grown up this morning.
He hasn't gained many votes. LibDems had about 22 per cent in 2005 and is just shy of 23 per cent on the results so far.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
I was (regrettably) right about the Lib Dem vote not holding out at the end of the campaign: I think it got squeezed and some of those who had said "don't know" when polled before the vote may have made their mind up. If Nick Clegg hadn't boosted the vote as a result of the first leaders' debate they could have done worse.
Plenty of good news though: the BNP opposed resolutely on the issues and defeated, Green Party representation, the Alliance win in Northern Ireland and the "Respect" candidates including George Galloway, trailing in third in Bethnal Green & Bow and Poplar & Limehouse.
Meanwhile Jack Dromey MP is being interviewed by Jeremy Paxman and he really is saying that the Conservatives are the "big losers!" Horseshit!
Posted by Yerevan (# 10383) on
:
quote:
Meanwhile Jack Dromey MP is being interviewed by Jeremy Paxman and he really is saying that the Conservatives are the "big losers!" Horseshit!
It is, but the Tories aren't clear winners either. They haven't been able to win a clear majority even when faced with Labour (deeply unpopular & in office since forever) and the Lib Dems (weak) and boosted by a recession. They're only 7% ahead of Labour on the popular vote, which isn't terribly impressive. In fact the popular vote has pretty much gone to the left of centre, which has 52% compared with Cameron's 36%, and thats without counting the nationalist parties and the Greens.
Posted by Rosa Winkel (# 11424) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Yerevan:
quote:
Meanwhile Jack Dromey MP is being interviewed by Jeremy Paxman and he really is saying that the Conservatives are the "big losers!" Horseshit!
It is, but the Tories aren't clear winners either. They haven't been able to win a clear majority even when faced with Labour (deeply unpopular & in office since forever) and the Lib Dems (weak) and boosted by a recession. They're only 7% ahead of Labour on the popular vote, which isn't terribly impressive. In fact the popular vote has pretty much gone to the left of centre, which has 52% compared with Cameron's 36%, and thats without counting the nationalist parties and the Greens.
Very good point.
Plus, the racist parties did terribly.
Posted by Pottage (# 9529) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Rosa Winkel:
Plus, the racist parties did terribly.
If only. That's an aspect of the results that I've found disquieting. As I am making this post 632 of the 650 results have been tabulated by the BBC and they record a current total of 549,679 votes cast for the BNP's candidates and another 887,881 for UKIP (or BNP-Lite as someone at work called them the other day). In round figures that's getting on for 1 in 20 of all the votes cast. In 2005 BNP only polled about 190,000 votes altogether and UKIP about 600,000.
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
Humble pie consumption time - I am comforted by the fact that Ken and I are both eating from the same dish having both made the same wrong prediction
Actually my prediction was *almost* accurate. The Tories did a bit worse than I expected (or the polls predicted) Its very labile when there is a three-way split - a small change in votes can lead to a big change in outcomes. Well, that's my excuse!
Posted by Pre-cambrian (# 2055) on
:
On the problems at the polling stations I would hope there would be an informed debate, but from what I heard last night informed wasn't part of it.
There was a lot of talk about the turnout being exceptional. It wasn't. In seats counted so far it's around 65% which is the second lowest since WW2. It's higher than 2005 but in every other election it was over 70% and over 80% in 1950 and 1951. And the considerable increase in postal votes means that even fewer would have been passing through the polling stations.
The head of the Electoral Commission said the problem was a Victorian system designed for a much reduced franchise, which is historically uninformed. It's coped fine with universal franchise since 1918 with considerably higher turnouts than yesterday(see above).
So the first question needs to be what was different in 2010?, not to junk the system straight off. Some speculations on contributory factors:
- Did councils decide that with declining turnouts and more postal votes they needed fewer polling stations but then got caught out?
- Have councils been shifting resources onto the sexy bit, i.e. a speedy count and a moment of glory on the TV rather than making sure the mechanics work on the day?
- Has there been an increase in elector ignorance about what to do on the day, including not turning up with their poll card, leading to slower throughput?
- Has a change in work and social patterns had an impact? E.g. a move away from traditional 9-5 and shift work to later working hours, plus Thursday increasingly being a going-out night leading to more people coming out to vote later.
Polling stations not having enough ballot papers or the most up-to-date electoral roll is unacceptable full stop.
Posted by Barnabas62 (# 9110) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Spawn:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Despite gaining votes? No, the paradox of this is that with an increased share of the vote coupled with a loss of seats, Clegg looks to have good case for electoral reform. And I think the TV debates helped him as well. And he did look pretty statesmanlike and grown up this morning.
He hasn't gained many votes. LibDems had about 22 per cent in 2005 and is just shy of 23 per cent on the results so far.
Labour 29% = 260ish seats
LibDem 23% = 55ish seats
Of course it's a characteristic of first past the post - but you end up with a little under one quarter of the voters represented by less than 9% of the MP's. I've just heard David Butler (veteran psephologist) say he's "ambivalent" about this. It's a proper issue for discussion since the Liberal vote has been well above 20% for several years now. It's also a proper issue for discussion whether we should have majority governments receiving well under half the votes.
It's not just a "loser's complaint". There are issues of equity here, which are just as important as the need for strong elected governments.
Posted by Spawn (# 4867) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Of course it's a characteristic of first past the post - but you end up with a little under one quarter of the voters represented by less than 9% of the MP's. I've just heard David Butler (veteran psephologist) say he's "ambivalent" about this. It's a proper issue for discussion since the Liberal vote has been well above 20% for several years now. It's also a proper issue for discussion whether we should have majority governments receiving well under half the votes.
It's not just a "loser's complaint". There are issues of equity here, which are just as important as the need for strong elected governments.
It's a proper issue for discussion, but there are other ways of solving some of these disparities (which favour Labour disproportionately) by balancing out the size of constituencies. This would give all the parties a level playing field in a first past-the-post system.
Posted by Barnabas62 (# 9110) on
:
Maybe a separate thread, Spawn? I'm pretty sure you're wrong. I think the current system is inequitable to some degree because of electoral boundaries, but "first past the post" is incurably structurally inequitable with a third party polling, consistently, nearly a quarter of the votes.
Anyway, Brown has just played his last card and I'm pretty sure it will not work. Cameron needs a deal to get a Queen's speech through, and some accommodation will no doubt emerge. But without confidence that a Queen's speech can be got through the House, Cameron cannot be confident that he will be able to provide a reasonably stable government, and therefore take over as PM. That's the reality. "I'm going forward, come and join us if you like" is not going to work." Brown, as PM, will ask the question "on behalf of the Queen" and there needs to be a believable answer. That's the constitutional process.
Posted by New Yorker (# 9898) on
:
Question from an American: Why so few Conservative MPs from Scotland? Is Scotland just that more left wing?
Second question: If, for example, the Conservatives won a clear majority, Brown would resign and Cameron would be appointed PM. This would happen immediately after the results were known, right? On a practical level how does an outgoing PM move out of Number 10 so fast? Here, the move in/out of the White House happens during the inauguration, but the outgoing president has had a few months to pack!
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by North East Quine:
Labour were actually increasing their majority in some Scottish seats
And in London. Many London seats had a swing to Labour, and even safe Tory ones often saw the Conservative vote fall slightly.
quote:
Originally posted by Spawn:
It wouldn't necessarily rebound on the Conservatives, if the LibDems insisted on PR (a secondary issue) while the economy (the only thing that really matters) was going down the pan.
Trouble is it looks like the voters think electoral reform IS a big issue. That's one of the reasons the Tories didn't win the majority that the buggins-turn system was expected to give them.
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
The alternaive is a 'coalition of the losers' which is more unpalatable morally ...
Tory-DUP represent less than 37% of the total vote
Lib-Lab-Nat about 57% - far from morally dubious
Arguable that many voters actually WANT coalition government and constitutional reform
Libs can do that deal with Labour - after all Labour already have a referendum on the voting dsystem in their manifesto and have already introduced various novel systems in other elections.
If Labour dance to the Liberal tune on this they will be going a little further along a road they have already set out on. For the Tories it would be a U-turn.
But there might not be enough MPs to swing it. Labour + SDLP (who more or less function as Labour when in Westminster) have 257 MPs. If LD went in with them that goes up to 308. SNP and Plaid have 10 between them so far. The single Green and Alliance MPs will in practice vote for them. There are a couple of undeclared seats that will go Liberal or SNP but its hard to see the whole show going much above 320. Sinn Fein won't play ball (and if they did they would demand things no-one wants to give them). So it looks like no-one can form a majoity coalition without DUP. So minority government.
Minority government might not be a bad thing. It means that every Bill needs to be argued on its merits and MPs need to be persuaded to vote. Lots of people have said that they want to see power move back towards the House of Commons and away from the Government. If the House is willing to excercise power, they have it in their hands.
I'm all in favour but then I woudl be. I think the British poeople need to be weaned out fo their deferential attachment to strong government and leadership. Armies need leaders, governments don't. Governments need negotiators. This is politics, not war.
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
quote:
Originally posted by Yerevan:
ES, Israel's hardly a typical representative democracy though is it?
No but it's negative experiences with PR have been replicated in both France and Italy which have both moved away it (See here for the Italian History and the French and elsewhere 2 round system).
Which is why both Liberals and Labour are pushing for some form of preference voting and NOT the list system (true PR which almost no-one sensible wants) or the two-round system.
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
Meanwhile Jack Dromey MP is being interviewed by Jeremy Paxman and he really is saying that the Conservatives are the "big losers!" Horseshit!
As I overheard someone say in a cafe over breakfast this morning:
quote:
If I was that David Cameron I'd shoot myself. Iraq war, credit crunch, MPs expenses, and they STILL can't win a bloody election. Total failure. Ought to commit hara-kiri on television.
By rights this is the Tories Kinnock moment. Their 1992.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
Question from an American: Why so few Conservative MPs from Scotland? Is Scotland just that more left wing?
Second question: If, for example, the Conservatives won a clear majority, Brown would resign and Cameron would be appointed PM. This would happen immediately after the results were known, right? On a practical level how does an outgoing PM move out of Number 10 so fast? Here, the move in/out of the White House happens during the inauguration, but the outgoing president has had a few months to pack!
Back in the 1950s, the Conservatives routinely got half the vote in Scotland. They've been squeezed by the other parties and the de-industrialisation of the 1970s/1980s is said to have hit Scotland particularly hard.
In a 'normal' election, the outgoing PM leaves the day after the election. Stuff is packed, the removal vans arrive in Downing Street load the Prime Minister's things in to the back and carts it off in the morning. The PM then goes to the palace and offers the Queen his resignation. The Leader of the Opposition the goes to the Palace in mid-morning, is asked to form the government and moves into Downing Street.
All very quick, all very brutal.
Posted by Sparrow (# 2458) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
Second question: If, for example, the Conservatives won a clear majority, Brown would resign and Cameron would be appointed PM. This would happen immediately after the results were known, right? On a practical level how does an outgoing PM move out of Number 10 so fast? Here, the move in/out of the White House happens during the inauguration, but the outgoing president has had a few months to pack!
That's correct and yes it does happen very quickly. I understand removal firms are on standby if needed, but I believe there has been embarrassment in the past when a result was not the expected one and the removal vans turned up and the departing incumbent had to pack up in a hurry!
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
Some reflections from lunchtime conversation over the papers and a beer with my workmates:
- The debacle at the polling stations was a disaster, probably caused by so many people trying to vote after getting home from work. To ensure it never happens again all future election days should be bank holidays - people would then have all day to vote, and massive queues like that wouldn't (or shouldn't) happen.
- A Con-Lib pact is the best and most likely outcome. To achieve this Cameron should offer Clegg a referendum on electoral reform, even if the Conservatives would not actually back it. We agree that Clegg would probably go for such an offer, especially after his comments earlier today.
- The pictures of the aftermath of Nigel Farage's plane crash make him look like something out of The Night Of The Living Dead!
- The Mirror front page today is freakin' hilarious.
- Young Poppy was wise to avoid the election and restrict her comments on page 3 of the Sun to drilling for oil in the Falklands.
- Emma Watson is looking very well in the Mail.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
Good to see that Poppy has her eye on international affairs when so many eyes are on domestic events.
Posted by New Yorker (# 9898) on
:
Back on my practical question about moving in/out of Downing Street: is it correct to assume that PMs do not bring as much of their personal things as (I think) US presidents do? (e.g., furniture especially)?
Another question: what is the liklihood of another election to solve the hung parliament question? If that is the outcome will it be six weeks off or is there a shorter campaign period for such circumstances?
From what I can tell, it appears that the Liberal Demmocrats have more in common with Labour than with the Conservative party. Is that correct?
Thanks.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
From what I can tell, it appears that the Liberal Demmocrats have more in common with Labour than with the Conservative party. Is that correct?
Broadly speaking, yes. There are areas of policy where they're closer to the Conservatives though.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
Back on my practical question about moving in/out of Downing Street: is it correct to assume that PMs do not bring as much of their personal things as (I think) US presidents do? (e.g., furniture especially)?
I don't think the PM and the Chancellor are abl to move much in. No's 10 and 11 Downing Stret are basically offices with a flat over. quote:
Another question: what is the liklihood of another election to solve the hung parliament question? If that is the outcome will it be six weeks off or is there a shorter campaign period for such circumstances?
Having just heard David Cameron, and Gordon Brown and Nick Clegg earlier, I think the leaders are keen to avoid another election for at least a year. It could happen, most probably if the LibDems do a deal and then claim that the Tories have ratted on it.
quote:
From what I can tell, it appears that the Liberal Demmocrats have more in common with Labour than with the Conservative party. Is that correct?
Thanks.
In political terms they do but they are probably less centralist and statist than Labour OR the Conservatives. The LibDems and Conservatives have converged on economic issues in the last few years.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
Cameron's made a strong speech IMO but whether it will be enough to win the Lib Dems over remains to be seen.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Cameron's made a strong speech IMO but whether it will be enough to win the Lib Dems over remains to be seen.
I thought his speech was designed to reassure his supporters! I'm sure negotiations are underway as we speak.
Posted by Petaflop (# 9804) on
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quote:
Originally posted by ken:
Which is why both Liberals and Labour are pushing for some form of preference voting and NOT the list system (true PR which almost no-one sensible wants) or the two-round system.
The Jenkins Commission's Alternative Vote Topup system (AV+) looks pretty good to me (not the AV system Brown was proposing, which can be less proportional than FPTP). Fairly close to what we have at the moment, but with a good degree of proportionality.
But I'd be happy with STV multi-seat constituencies.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
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Latest rumours are that he's prepared to offer a referendum on electoral reform.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
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[DP] Bloody hell, Daniel Hannan's bigging up the Lib Dems - a deal must surely be on the cards; either that, or I can hear the thundering of apocalyptic hooves...
Posted by Leprechaun (# 5408) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Cameron's made a strong speech IMO but whether it will be enough to win the Lib Dems over remains to be seen.
I thought his speech was designed to reassure his supporters! I'm sure negotiations are underway as we speak.
I don't really like D-Cam, but I thought it was quite a good speech: respecting that there is an appetite for co-operation in the country and yet reassuring activists about key commitments. I think a government of Tories with some bright Lib Dems could be quite good. Although no doubt some rather heated cabinet meetings!
But maybe I'm just an old idealist.
Posted by Moth (# 2589) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Leprechaun:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Cameron's made a strong speech IMO but whether it will be enough to win the Lib Dems over remains to be seen.
I thought his speech was designed to reassure his supporters! I'm sure negotiations are underway as we speak.
I don't really like D-Cam, but I thought it was quite a good speech: respecting that there is an appetite for co-operation in the country and yet reassuring activists about key commitments. I think a government of Tories with some bright Lib Dems could be quite good. Although no doubt some rather heated cabinet meetings!
But maybe I'm just an old idealist.
I thought he was trying to make it sound like he was offering them half his kingdom, but without actually offering it.
Lib Dems are in between a rock and a hard place. If they prop up Gordon, they're likely to get electoral reform if the government lasts that long, but will the country forgive them for propping up an unpopular government? If they go in with Cameron, will they get electoral reform, and will their more left-wing suppoters defect straight back to Labour?
Posted by New Yorker (# 9898) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
[DP] Bloody hell, Daniel Hannan's bigging up the Lib Dems - a deal must surely be on the cards; either that, or I can hear the thundering of apocalyptic hooves...
Translation request: "Bigging Up?"
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
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=Praising them
Posted by Moth (# 2589) on
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quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
[DP] Bloody hell, Daniel Hannan's bigging up the Lib Dems - a deal must surely be on the cards; either that, or I can hear the thundering of apocalyptic hooves...
Translation request: "Bigging Up?"
Praising, extoling.
Funny, I always thought it was an Americanism!
Posted by Gildas (# 525) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Cameron's made a strong speech IMO but whether it will be enough to win the Lib Dems over remains to be seen.
Nah, that was for the benefit of his own troops and the Tory Press which will doubtless be proclaiming it to be the greatest rhetorical triumph since Queen Elizabeth's feisty little number at Tilbury on tomorrow morning's front pages. Young Nick, hitherto a dangerous flake who wants to scrap Trident and blow the savings on Pina Coladas for immigrants and paedophiles will suddenly be bigged up as a potentially great politician if he can seize the moment and accept the job of Secretary of State for Education in a Cameron administration in exchange for a mess of pottage.
The winning over the Lib Dems will done behind closed doors in the first instance and then young master Nicholas will have to go out and persuade his MPs that coalescing with the party of obscurantism and reaction is the way to go. The only way that is going to happen is if the Tories offer them a serious deal on PR. Which need not, contra the stuff about a progressive majority in the UK, be an insuperable obstacle. The Christian Democrats in Germany have done pretty well out of PR, notwithstanding the inconveniences of having to do deals with the Free Democrats. Let's face it, the Tories have survived rather more drastic changes to the electoral system than abandoning first past the post.
Posted by mousethief (# 953) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Moth:
quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
Translation request: "Bigging Up?"
Praising, extoling.
Funny, I always thought it was an Americanism!
It's a barbarism.
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
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quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker: Question from an American: Why so few Conservative MPs from Scotland? Is Scotland just that more left wing?
Partly. But its more that the Tories are seen as a specifically English party. Also the Thatcher assault hit Scotland harder than England.
quote:
On a practical level how does an outgoing PM move out of Number 10 so fast? Here, the move in/out of the White House happens during the inauguration, but the outgoing president has had a few months to pack!
The transition in government can be almost instantaneous as well. When a new Minister is appointed they go round to their new office and the old one has often left before they get there.
Not as disruptive as it sounds and there are very few political appointees in most government departments, nearly everyone apart from the Minsters themselves and a handful of PR people and researchers will be permanent civil servants.
Also there is an official Opposition with shadow ministers and they liase with civil servants in the department they are shadowing. (Including secret security briefings) So there is nearly always someone in incoming party who is already working with each department, and it is often (though not always) the person who is chosen to be the new minister.
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
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Some councils got it right. For example:
quote:
A Lewisham Council spokesman said: In our preparations we had anticipated a large number of people might arrive late in the evening to vote. Presiding officers had been advised to make sure that all people queuing were brought onto the polling station and issued with ballot papers prior to 10pm.
This meant we were able to comply with legal provisions and make sure people were not disenfranchised.
Two of our polling stations experienced late queues, but we were able to find a pragmatic solution to allow people to vote while remaining within the law.
Posted by Yerevan (# 10383) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Pottage:
quote:
Originally posted by Rosa Winkel:
Plus, the racist parties did terribly.
If only. That's an aspect of the results that I've found disquieting. As I am making this post 632 of the 650 results have been tabulated by the BBC and they record a current total of 549,679 votes cast for the BNP's candidates and another 887,881 for UKIP (or BNP-Lite as someone at work called them the other day). In round figures that's getting on for 1 in 20 of all the votes cast. In 2005 BNP only polled about 190,000 votes altogether and UKIP about 600,000.
I wouldn't worry too much about 1 in 20. First off calling UKIP racist is (much though I loathe them) somewhat off the mark. Anti-EU sentiment and anxiety over immigration isn't necessarily straightforward racism. As for the BNP, 550,000 votes out of a UK population of 61 million is more like 1 in 120 and I don't think there are really 550,000 committed far rightists in the UK, more like 400,000 stupid vaguely right-wing protest votes plus 100,000 nutters. For a multicultural country with high levels of immigration the UK is amazingly un-racist...the UK far right is miniscule by continental standards. I hope the BNP's miserable performance will encourage the media to stop giving them the oxygen of publicity by over-estimating their importance.
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
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I take it back. I miscoutned the uncounted seats (IYSWIM) there were more liberals & SNP in there than I realised.
So Lab+SDLP+Lib+SNP+PC is, just, a majority. They could even afford to have the odd sick day if the Alliance and Green MPs joined.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Yerevan:
I hope the BNP's miserable performance will encourage the media to stop giving them the oxygen of publicity by over-estimating their importance.
To give the media their due, I don't think it's ever been about the BNP's importance. It's about their significance, which is something else entirely.
Posted by Yerevan (# 10383) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by Yerevan:
I hope the BNP's miserable performance will encourage the media to stop giving them the oxygen of publicity by over-estimating their importance.
To give the media their due, I don't think it's ever been about the BNP's importance. It's about their significance, which is something else entirely.
Whats the difference?
Posted by Pottage (# 9529) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Yerevan:
I wouldn't worry too much about 1 in 20. First off calling UKIP racist is (much though I loathe them) somewhat off the mark. Anti-EU sentiment and anxiety over immigration isn't necessarily straightforward racism. As for the BNP, 550,000 votes out of a UK population of 61 million is more like 1 in 120 and I don't think there are really 550,000 committed far rightists in the UK, more like 400,000 stupid vaguely right-wing protest votes plus 100,000 nutters. For a multicultural country with high levels of immigration the UK is amazingly un-racist...the UK far right is miniscule by continental standards. I hope the BNP's miserable performance will encourage the media to stop giving them the oxygen of publicity by over-estimating their importance.
I sort of agree about UKIP. The tag "BNP-Lite" is true only of a proportion of their diverse bunch of adherents. And you're right of course that the hard right is stronger and more likely to have electoral success in many continental countries than in the UK. But I'm a little more uncomfortable than you are to note that the BNP vote has trebled since the 2005 election. I'm afraid they certainly won't see that as "a miserable performance".
And I'm afraid I don't think you're comparing like with like when you measure the votes polled for BNP as a proportion of the entire population of the UK. It wouldn't even be fair to measure it as a proportion of the adult population that could have voted. As a proportion of the population that did vote the ballots cast for the overtly racist BNP equate not to 1 in 120 but to about 1 in 50.
Posted by North East Quine (# 13049) on
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Originally posted by ken:
quote:
quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by New Yorker: Question from an American: Why so few Conservative MPs from Scotland? Is Scotland just that more left wing?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Partly. But its more that the Tories are seen as a specifically English party. Also the Thatcher assault hit Scotland harder than England.
They are now seen as a specifically English party. It used to be that they did well in rural farming areas (Perthshire/ Borders) whilst Labour did well in the industrial / city areas.
Thatcher was seen as "anti-Scottish" The Poll Tax was disasterously introduced into Scotland a year before it was introduced into England. It was very, very badly done and left a lot of Scots very angry. By the time it was introduced into England, a lot of the teething troubles had been sorted, but it was still unpopular there. But we had the teething troubles as well as the general unpopularity.
Also, a lot of the current Conservatives are just "different" to the average Scot. We have a fairly low level of private education; most Scots are educated in public comprehensive schools. The whole Eton/ Bullingdon thing is alien to most Scots, so it's harder for Scots to relate to the top Tories.
Posted by St. Punk the Pious (# 683) on
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I am pleased to see that Dr. Death, Evan Harris, got beat in Oxford West.
The Lib Dems deserve to lose if they run extremist prats like him.
Posted by Yerevan (# 10383) on
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quote:
I'm afraid they certainly won't see that as "a miserable performance". And I'm afraid I don't think you're comparing like with like when you measure the votes polled for BNP as a proportion of the entire population of the UK. It wouldn't even be fair to measure it as a proportion of the adult population that could have voted. As a proportion of the population that did vote the ballots cast for the overtly racist BNP equate not to 1 in 120 but to about 1 in 50.
I'm not sure why taking it as a proportion of votes is 'fairer' than as a proportion of the population. Ultimately 119 people out of 120 in the UK didn't vote for them. Even the joint secretary of Unite Against Fascism has described their vote as "paltry". If they can come no better than 3rd in places like Barking (poor area with lots of anti-immigrant sentiment) they aren't going to be winning seats any time soon.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
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quote:
Originally posted by North East Quine:
Also, a lot of the current Conservatives are just "different" to the average Scot. We have a fairly low level of private education; most Scots are educated in public comprehensive schools. The whole Eton/ Bullingdon thing is alien to most Scots, so it's harder for Scots to relate to the top Tories.
They related to Tony Blair. Is Fettes that much different from Eton?
Posted by mousethief (# 953) on
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I read a wonderful quote from a Tory MP to the effect that if the Conservatives can't scrape up a majority, he might have to vote on the issues! Horrors!
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Yerevan:
If they can come no better than 3rd in places like Barking (poor area with lots of anti-immigrant sentiment) they aren't going to be winning seats any time soon.
That's assuming that potential voters for them aren't hiding in the woodwork who will come out when a PR system raises the chance of one being a winner. And a party list system of PR raises the prospect of their getting representation AS THEY DID IN THE EUROPEAN ELECTIONS, making AV or STV more desirable as a way of marginalising them.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by North East Quine:
Also, a lot of the current Conservatives are just "different" to the average Scot. We have a fairly low level of private education; most Scots are educated in public comprehensive schools. The whole Eton/ Bullingdon thing is alien to most Scots, so it's harder for Scots to relate to the top Tories.
They related to Tony Blair. Is Fettes that much different from Eton?
I don't think Fettes ever had its own pack of beagles, nor quite so silly a society as "Pop". Heck, where do you think the "Upper Class Twit of the Year" sketch originated?
It's a social thing. There are Scottish aristocrats and their sons will probably go to Eton, not Fettes.
Posted by North East Quine (# 13049) on
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Did we relate to Tony Blair particularly? Or just because he was part-and-parcel of the Labour party?
There seems to be a whole swathe of public-schoolboys in the current Conservative party.
Posted by Pottage (# 9529) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Yerevan:
I'm not sure why taking it as a proportion of votes is 'fairer' than as a proportion of the population. Ultimately 119 people out of 120 in the UK didn't vote for them. Even the joint secretary of Unite Against Fascism has described their vote as "paltry". If they can come no better than 3rd in places like Barking (poor area with lots of anti-immigrant sentiment) they aren't going to be winning seats any time soon.
As I say, you seem more sanguine than I am about their vote having trebled since the last time there was a comparable poll. Other than UKIP and the Big Three, they polled more votes than anyone else, fortunately spread so widely across the constituencies that nowhere did they come close to actually being elected.
Your 119 non-BNP voters include about 40 people not entitled to participate in the process at all and around 30 more whose views are unknown because they chose not to voice them. That's torturing the statistics a bit for me to feel comfortable with it - YMMV
Posted by Barnabas62 (# 9110) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Gildas:
The winning over the Lib Dems will done behind closed doors in the first instance and then young master Nicholas will have to go out and persuade his MPs that coalescing with the party of obscurantism and reaction is the way to go. The only way that is going to happen is if the Tories offer them a serious deal on PR. Which need not, contra the stuff about a progressive majority in the UK, be an insuperable obstacle.
I agree. It's probably one of these "who blinks first" negotiations. If I were Clegg it would be my "bottom line" card, not replaceable by a Cabinet job for me or a friend or two.
"Mess of pottage" was rather good, BTW! Compromise is not the same as soul-selling - not if you have any sense it isn't. Problem is the press are going to "big up" a ConLib deal as the "best for the country", carefully glossing over the fact that it is the detail of any deal which will determine whether it's "best for the country" or not. We're going to find out what Nick Clegg is made of - I hope it's good stuff. For the sake of the country.
[And this will probably be my last contribution to this thread - as I said in the Styx I'm off to Devon tomorrow. We live in interesting times.]
[ 07. May 2010, 16:39: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
They related to Tony Blair. Is Fettes that much different from Eton?
Blair is Scottish himself though!
Posted by North East Quine (# 13049) on
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Originally posted by Sioni sais:
quote:
There are Scottish aristocrats and their sons will probably go to Eton, not Fettes.
I was at school (public comprehensive) in the 1980s with the family of a lord who is now an Earl (and a Lib-Dem peer in the House of Lords.)
And when I was in hospital aged 11, (NHS) the girl having her tonsils out in the next bed was the daughter of another aristocrat. AFAIK that family went to their local comprehensive, too.
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
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Meanwhile, all over the country, overlooked by the national hype machine, newly-elected Labour councillors are taking over formerly Tory local authorities...
... and if there is one thing this election DOES prove it is that they days of TV dominance of the media are over.. All those much-vaunted debates made no difference at all. Clegg supposedly "won" them yet his party did worse than last time. Brown was unversally said to have "lost" the debates but his party did consistently better than the opinion polls suggested.
This is Britain. We do not have a presidential system, and the TV personae of the so-called "leaders" are genuinely less important than the self-aggrandising TV commentary beleives.
Posted by Og, King of Bashan (# 9562) on
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The lighter side of a hung parliament. Don’t kill me for the source, funny is funny.
Posted by Yerevan (# 10383) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Pottage:
quote:
Originally posted by Yerevan:
I'm not sure why taking it as a proportion of votes is 'fairer' than as a proportion of the population. Ultimately 119 people out of 120 in the UK didn't vote for them. Even the joint secretary of Unite Against Fascism has described their vote as "paltry". If they can come no better than 3rd in places like Barking (poor area with lots of anti-immigrant sentiment) they aren't going to be winning seats any time soon.
As I say, you seem more sanguine than I am about their vote having trebled since the last time there was a comparable poll. Other than UKIP and the Big Three, they polled more votes than anyone else, fortunately spread so widely across the constituencies that nowhere did they come close to actually being elected.
Your 119 non-BNP voters include about 40 people not entitled to participate in the process at all and around 30 more whose views are unknown because they chose not to voice them. That's torturing the statistics a bit for me to feel comfortable with it - YMMV
So that leaves 1 in 80....I expect I could find 1 in 80 people in the UK who think they've been abducting by aliens or that the royal family are really lizard people . The absolute worst case scenario re the BNP is that they MIGHT get ONE seat in Westminster in the next ten or fifteen years, and judging by their inability to come close to winning even in deprived areas with high levels of racial tension there isn't much chance of that happening. IMO every democracy has an irreducible core of unpleasant extremists of the right...the UK is blessed in having very few. I'm more worried about the sometimes inhumane immigration policies of the mainstream non-racist parties personally.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
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quote:
Originally posted by North East Quine:
There seems to be a whole swathe of public-schoolboys in the current Conservative party.
I think you'll find there are as many in the leadership of the Labour party... The freedom of the left to take pot shots at people for the way their parents choose to educate them has always struck me as as viscous a form of behaviour as racism; the fact that they are better able to cope doesn't detract from the fact that it is still wrong.
And if the education which they received makes them better able to serve the country as ministers, then the case for the prejudice is even less well placed...
Posted by Pottage (# 9529) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Yerevan:
So that leaves 1 in 80....I expect I could find 1 in 80 people in the UK who think they've been abducting by aliens or that the royal family are really lizard people . The absolute worst case scenario re the BNP is that they MIGHT get ONE seat in Westminster in the next ten or fifteen years, and judging by their inability to come close to winning even in deprived areas with high levels of racial tension there isn't much chance of that happening. IMO every democracy has an irreducible core of unpleasant extremists of the right...the UK is blessed in having very few. I'm more worried about the sometimes inhumane immigration policies of the mainstream non-racist parties personally.
70 from 119 doesn't leave 80 (except possibly to some advertising executives), but I'm going to leave this I think. We differ. But in the scheme of things it doesn't matter much to either of us.
Posted by Beeswax Altar (# 11644) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Og, King of Bashan:
The lighter side of a hung parliament. Don’t kill me for the source, funny is funny.
So, will James Bond or Sherlock Holmes be aiding Roscoe P. Coletrain in apprehending the Duke boys?
Posted by Ariel (# 58) on
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quote:
Originally posted by St. Punk the Pious:
I am pleased to see that Dr. Death, Evan Harris, got beat in Oxford West.
Only just, though. He lost by just 176 votes.
Posted by North East Quine (# 13049) on
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Ender's Shadow, have I taken a pot-shot, or have I said that their education makes them seem "different" to the average Scot?
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
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quote:
Originally posted by North East Quine:
Ender's Shadow, have I taken a pot-shot, or have I said that their education makes them seem "different" to the average Scot?
The question is why do people feel free to mention it at all - in the same way that people don't feel the need to point out that X is from a particular racial group?
The presence on the Guardian web site of an offer by the Guardian of a tee shirt showing Gordo saying something like 'Outside now, Posh Boy' is playing to the same stereotypes...
Posted by North East Quine (# 13049) on
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Fair enough, Enders Shadow. I think it is relevent to me, because I am the parent/aunt/godmother to lots of children, who are important to me. I was concerned about Cameron's talk of introducing some sort of compulsory scheme for 16 year olds. I don't want my kids to be forced into some scheme dreamed up by people whose concept of being 16 is based on an upbringing entirely different to those of my precious kids.
Posted by Ariel (# 58) on
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I was interested to discover that Nick Clegg is also an ex-public school pupil (Westminster School) and went to Cambridge. His grandmother was a Russian baroness. That's one up on Cameron in the poshness stakes, surely.
Posted by Sleepwalker (# 15343) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Ariel:
I was interested to discover that Nick Clegg is also an ex-public school pupil (Westminster School) and went to Cambridge. His grandmother was a Russian baroness. That's one up on Cameron in the poshness stakes, surely.
He is also exceptionally rich, I believe.
Posted by Clint Boggis (# 633) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
quote:
Originally posted by North East Quine:
There seems to be a whole swathe of public-schoolboys in the current Conservative party.
I think you'll find there are as many in the leadership of the Labour party... The freedom of the left to take pot shots at people for the way their parents choose to educate them has always struck me as as viscous a form of behaviour as racism; the fact that they are better able to cope doesn't detract from the fact that it is still wrong.
And if the education which they received makes them better able to serve the country as ministers, then the case for the prejudice is even less well placed...
I doubt there are very many privately educated Labourites in terms of proportion but surely it's more fun and helps you land a blow when the stereotypes turn out to have more than a little truth in them! Wasn't a slur made in the past about 'Grammar School Boys' as though they were not really up to positions of importance due to their lowly backgrounds? Wasn't that equally unfair?
Two wrongs don't make a right, of course, but Labour starts with a few disadvantages, such as having limited funding for their campaigning (no sugar daddies) and almost the whole print media spinning lies against them? Whining because they mock the privileged education enjoyed by their opponent seems pretty small beer to me. And the fact that they enjoy an expensive education which grooms them to presume they're members of the governing classes - rather than 'ordinary people' who have to struggle to come out on top.
[PS: Is viscosity relevant? I blame the schooling.]
.
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
The presence on the Guardian web site of an offer by the Guardian of a tee shirt showing Gordo saying something like 'Outside now, Posh Boy' is playing to the same stereotypes...
Oh for goodness' sake, that was an April Fools' joke that caught on because it was funny. It's not a left-wing anti-toff conspiracy.
Posted by Sleepwalker (# 15343) on
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quote:
Originally posted by ken:
quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker: Question from an American: Why so few Conservative MPs from Scotland? Is Scotland just that more left wing?
Partly. But its more that the Tories are seen as a specifically English party. Also the Thatcher assault hit Scotland harder than England.
Rubbish. Whole swathes of northern England were left as economic rubble at the time.
Posted by St. Punk the Pious (# 683) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Ariel:
quote:
Originally posted by St. Punk the Pious:
I am pleased to see that Dr. Death, Evan Harris, got beat in Oxford West.
Only just, though. He lost by just 176 votes.
True. But that's good enough for me.
Posted by Doc Tor (# 9748) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Sleepwalker:
quote:
Originally posted by ken:
quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker: Question from an American: Why so few Conservative MPs from Scotland? Is Scotland just that more left wing?
Partly. But its more that the Tories are seen as a specifically English party. Also the Thatcher assault hit Scotland harder than England.
Rubbish. Whole swathes of northern England were left as economic rubble at the time.
Looked at an electoral map of the north-east recently?
Posted by mousethief (# 953) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
Looked at an electoral map of the north-east recently?
Yes. The further north you go, the fewer Conservative districts there are and the more Labor and LibDem. What did you want me to see when I looked?
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
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One thing is certain after this election: The Tories can't claim to be a British party. They've only got one seat in Scotland, they didn't get anything like the national swing in Wales, they were soundly beaten (relative to expectations) in the Midlands and the North, and their deal the UUP was a disaster.
Essentially, they are the party of the rural South. And yet they claim that the British people have given the a mandate for change. It's laughable, really.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
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Rejoice! Rejoice!
Others have mentioned that the BNP haven't made much progress in the Parliamentary elections. Better still is that in the local council elections in England (the bodies that supply social services, education and take away your trash) they have been, well, taken away with the trash.
All 12 BNP councillors on Barking and Dagenham have been thrown out, two of four at Burnley, three of four at Epping Forest and two of seven in Stoke. It's a similar story elsewhere (Leeds, Sandwell etc)
Some results are still to come in but it looks like the BNP has nothing to crow about anywhere. Keep going everyone, wipe them out and let's make racism as acceptable as slavery.
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
One thing is certain after this election: The Tories can't claim to be a British party. They've only got one seat in Scotland, they didn't get anything like the national swing in Wales, they were soundly beaten (relative to expectations) in the Midlands and the North, and their deal the UUP was a disaster.
Essentially, they are the party of the rural South. And yet they claim that the British people have given the a mandate for change. It's laughable, really.
The Conservatives did get the same swing in Wales as in England.
They did pretty well in the West Midlands and North West (outside the cities).
Their only real problem is Scotland.
The opposite way of phrasing your point is that New Labour were nearly wiped out in the southern half of England, where a continuing Labour government run by a Scotsman has about as much legitimacy as Maggie in Scotland did.
Posted by Og: Thread Killer (# 3200) on
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I watched some of the BBC coverage (2-4:30 your time) over the net.
Gosh that was combative...and white...and mostly male.
I saw two women who seemed to be thrown the bones of a minute an hour of coverage, with one of them working a silly touch machine that stopped working and the other relegated to headlines. I think I saw one female correspondent and not a single non-white person outside of the one Labour Lord, who got shouted down in about 10 seconds by that buffoon up on a gantry in front of the couch of Lord types (does he have ADD or something?).
I thought your country had some non-white people in it? Some of them might have voted? I saw a few women and non-whites ran, voted, counted, gave results etc. Funny how a lot of white guys were the one interpreting it all.
What, did all the non white people leave for Al-Jezzera English?
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Clint Boggis:
I doubt there are very many privately educated Labourites in terms of proportion
There are quite a few in the Cabinet, including Alastair Darling, Harriet Harman (same school as George Osborne), Jack Straw, Ed Balls, Shaun Woodward, Tessa Jowell, Peter Hain and Lord Drayson. Others probably did as well.
quote:
Two wrongs don't make a right, of course, but Labour starts with a few disadvantages, such as having limited funding for their campaigning (no sugar daddies)
Er, trades unions anyone?
quote:
Whining because they mock the privileged education enjoyed by their opponent seems pretty small beer to me. And the fact that they enjoy an expensive education which grooms them to presume they're members of the governing classes - rather than 'ordinary people' who have to struggle to come out on top.
Given the above, it's simply hypocrisy. The only thing a lot of Labour grandees have struggled to do is lose their upper class accents in an attempt to sound like their electorates.
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Og: Thread Killer:
I think I saw one female correspondent and not a single non-white person outside of the one Labour Lord, who got shouted down in about 10 seconds by that buffoon up on a gantry in front of the couch of Lord types (does he have ADD or something?).
Shouting people down is Paxman's schtick. Not pretty, but it can be entertaining on occasion.
quote:
Originally posted by Og: Thread Killer:
I thought your country had some non-white people in it? Some of them might have voted? I saw a few women and non-whites ran, voted, counted, gave results etc. Funny how a lot of white guys were the one interpreting it all.
What, did all the non white people leave for Al-Jezzera English?
The BBC's news and current affairs team has always been that way (apart from a couple of tokens such as Moira Stuart). Establishment Britain at it's finest.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Og: Thread Killer:
I watched some of the BBC coverage (2-4:30 your time) over the net.
Gosh that was combative...and white...and mostly male.
I thought your country had some non-white people in it? Some of them might have voted? I saw a few women and non-whites ran, voted, counted, gave results etc. Funny how a lot of white guys were the one interpreting it all.
Yes, but Britain is 93% white so it's really no surprise that you saw overwhelmingly white faces on television.
If you carried on watching you may have seen the BBC cover the fact that two Conservative candidates, Shaun Bailey and Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones, unfortunately failed to win their seats.
Posted by Og: Thread Killer (# 3200) on
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Oh, I have no doubt there are non-white people running in most parties over there.
I've been watching election night coverage in the US and Canada since 1976, when a wee lad of 12 and was looking forward to this. This is my first time watching such coverage in the UK and I was expecting the swing thing and some of the over the top stuff. Heck, I even noticed Cameron shaking the hand of the Raving Loony guy beside him, which was a nice touch by the way.
It took me about 5 minutes to figure out why I felt so weird watching it. I havnt' seen something that non nuanced and lacking in diverstiy ever..even ABC had Barbara Walters back in 1976. The roles given to women were something out of the 60's...the equivalent of the Ladies section of the newspaper.
When they interviewed Bill Wyman, I suppose I should have known I was in cuckoo land....for Pete's sake, he dated a 13 year old. Wouldn't that have at least given some woman on the show the creeps?
All just very weird...I suppose next time I'll look for the non-BBC coverage to compare?
We are 80% non-visual minority here, BTW.
[ 07. May 2010, 19:28: Message edited by: Og: Thread Killer ]
Posted by North East Quine (# 13049) on
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Originally posted by Og: Thread killer
quote:
I watched some of the BBC coverage (2-4:30 your time) over the net.
Gosh that was combative...and white...and mostly male.
I'd have to watch again to be sure, but I was watching the BBC Scotland coverage and that wasn't my impression.
Posted by Sleepwalker (# 15343) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
quote:
Originally posted by Sleepwalker:
quote:
Originally posted by ken:
quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker: Question from an American: Why so few Conservative MPs from Scotland? Is Scotland just that more left wing?
Partly. But its more that the Tories are seen as a specifically English party. Also the Thatcher assault hit Scotland harder than England.
Rubbish. Whole swathes of northern England were left as economic rubble at the time.
Looked at an electoral map of the north-east recently?
And your point is?
Posted by Sleepwalker (# 15343) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Og: Thread Killer:
I thought your country had some non-white people in it? Some of them might have voted? I saw a few women and non-whites ran, voted, counted, gave results etc. Funny how a lot of white guys were the one interpreting it all.
That's a very strange statement. What did you expect to see?
Posted by mousethief (# 953) on
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Women and non-whites, I think is what is meant.
Posted by North East Quine (# 13049) on
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I can't recall any non-white presenters or commentators on BBC Scotland's coverage, but one of the main commentators was Prof Alice Brown, who is, or was, professor of politics at the University of Edinburgh. Also several female MSPs, including Nicola Sturgeon and Annabel Goldie were in the studio and commenting at various points.
In terms of non-white candidates, Anas Sarwar won Glasgow Central for Labour, a seat previously held by his father, Mohammed Sarwar. The SNP candidate in that consituency was Osama Saeed. My husband tells me Anas was interviewed after his visctory, but I was asleep by then.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Og: Thread Killer:
I thought your country had some non-white people in it? Some of them might have voted? I saw a few women and non-whites ran, voted, counted, gave results etc. Funny how a lot of white guys were the one interpreting it all.
What, did all the non white people leave for Al-Jezzera English?
Our country does have some non-white people in it, but not as many as some of our politicians and commentators would have you believe. We do however have a lot of diversity within the "White British male" community. Welsh and Scots have held the offices of state and led political parties disproportionately and believe me, they are different, in education and outlook, to the English. Then there are the Northern Irish who are different, only more so. Note that if Gordon Brown resigns while he is Prime Minister then Harriet Harman, as deputy leader of the Labour Party, will temporarily become Prime Minister.
I'm intrigued that you mention Al-Jezeera: the staff of that did indeed join from the BBC World Service's Arabic language TV station, which was closed following censorship demands from its Saudi co-owners.
[ 07. May 2010, 20:48: Message edited by: Sioni Sais ]
Posted by Jahlove (# 10290) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Og: Thread Killer:
I think I saw one female correspondent and not a single non-white person outside of the one Labour Lord, who got shouted down in about 10 seconds by that buffoon up on a gantry in front of the couch of Lord types (does he have ADD or something?).
UK election coverage is modelled on It's A Knockout - i.e. it's a huge joke
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Yerevan:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by Yerevan:
I hope the BNP's miserable performance will encourage the media to stop giving them the oxygen of publicity by over-estimating their importance.
To give the media their due, I don't think it's ever been about the BNP's importance. It's about their significance, which is something else entirely.
Whats the difference?
"Importance" would imply they were likely to affect the government itself. Even with one or two seats, no-one would ever work with them so that won't happen.
"Significance", as in the fact that their vote is growing, however minutely, shows that there are some major issues within certain areas of the electorate.
The BNP aren't important as a party, they're significant as a barometer of public feeling.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jahlove:
quote:
Originally posted by Og: Thread Killer:
I think I saw one female correspondent and not a single non-white person outside of the one Labour Lord, who got shouted down in about 10 seconds by that buffoon up on a gantry in front of the couch of Lord types (does he have ADD or something?).
UK election coverage is modelled on It's A Knockout - i.e. it's a huge joke
And for those of you who remember Jeux Sans Frontieres*, they did it much better on the continent. No change there then.
*the international edition. My mum reckoned it was a Plot by the Wilson and Heath governments to popularise the Common Market!
Posted by TurquoiseTastic (# 8978) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Sleepwalker:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
quote:
Originally posted by Sleepwalker:
quote:
Originally posted by ken:
quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker: Question from an American: Why so few Conservative MPs from Scotland? Is Scotland just that more left wing?
Partly. But its more that the Tories are seen as a specifically English party. Also the Thatcher assault hit Scotland harder than England.
Rubbish. Whole swathes of northern England were left as economic rubble at the time.
Looked at an electoral map of the north-east recently?
And your point is?
The point is that your point actually backs up ken's thesis - industry in the North East was decimated in the 80s just like it was in Scotland, and so the Conservatives have been virtually extinguished in the North East, just as they have been in Scotland.
I don't think it's the whole story though. Not even well-heeled, middle class Scottish constituencies return Conservatives nowadays.
Posted by Clint Boggis (# 633) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Clint Boggis:
I doubt there are very many privately educated Labourites in terms of proportion
There are quite a few in the Cabinet, including Alastair Darling, Harriet Harman (same school as George Osborne), Jack Straw, Ed Balls, Shaun Woodward, Tessa Jowell, Peter Hain and Lord Drayson. Others probably did as well.
quote:
Two wrongs don't make a right, of course, but Labour starts with a few disadvantages, such as having limited funding for their campaigning (no sugar daddies)
Er, trades unions anyone?
quote:
Whining because they mock the privileged education enjoyed by their opponent seems pretty small beer to me. And the fact that they enjoy an expensive education which grooms them to presume they're members of the governing classes - rather than 'ordinary people' who have to struggle to come out on top.
Given the above, it's simply hypocrisy. The only thing a lot of Labour grandees have struggled to do is lose their upper class accents in an attempt to sound like their electorates.
'Hypocrisy' is a bit strong. I'd agree that it's a little unfair if a number of their own were privately educated. OTOH the Tories have the very significant advantages of being well funded by rich benefactors and media support so if they cry 'unfair' about this tiny issue they just seem like whiners.
And in what possible sense are wealthy individual supporters at all similar to a very large number of ordinary people in unions giving very modest amounts? More misplaced cries of 'unfair' falling on deaf ears.
.
Posted by mousethief (# 953) on
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If the Thatcher years were anything like the Reagan years, the trade unions have been decimated and their power is largely illusory.
Posted by Pre-cambrian (# 2055) on
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And on union funding, any member of a union can opt out of contributing to the union's political fund for the Labour party. However, no shareholder in a company can opt out of the company's decision to give funds to the Tory party. Not surprisingly it was the Tories who introduced that bit of one-sidedness.
Posted by Og: Thread Killer (# 3200) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Sleepwalker:
quote:
Originally posted by Og: Thread Killer:
I thought your country had some non-white people in it? Some of them might have voted? I saw a few women and non-whites ran, voted, counted, gave results etc. Funny how a lot of white guys were the one interpreting it all.
That's a very strange statement. What did you expect to see?
Diversity among the commentators, or at least a woman doing more then being asked to kick an enlarged IPAD or do highlights once an hour. As I said, I'm so used to it now on both US and Canadian election coverage I found it strikingly weird.
Given the amount of strong women characters in British politics, you'd think the BBC would consider maybe some women can do political analysis rather then a bunch of guys?
Looked like an old boys network, or a big glass ceiling is in place.
Posted by Yangtze (# 4965) on
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Yup, some of us spotted it as well. I spent a lot of the night saying things to the telly (and assorted people watching it) like "oh good, just what we needed, another middle aged white man telling us things"
And despite how much I heart David Mitchell the Channel 4 Alternative Election Night coverage was just as bad - guess what, 3 almost middle aged white male comedians. I was yelling at that before it even started.
Sigh, we truly are heading back to the 80s
Posted by Auntie Doris (# 9433) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Yangtze:
Sigh, we truly are heading back to the 80s
Better fish out your shoulder pads dear.
Auntie Doris x
Posted by Beeswax Altar (# 11644) on
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quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
If the Thatcher years were anything like the Reagan years, the trade unions have been decimated and their power is largely illusory.
Actually, Thatcher was more like Clinton. If a third of registered Republicans in the United States moved to the UK and became citizens, the next election would see a UKIP government... possibly a Conservative-UKIP coalition.
The political spectrum just isn't similar. That's why I think a Red Tory Party under a different name would fill a void in the United States.
Posted by Clint Boggis (# 633) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Og: Thread Killer:
quote:
Originally posted by Sleepwalker:
quote:
Originally posted by Og: Thread Killer:
I thought your country had some non-white people in it? Some of them might have voted? I saw a few women and non-whites ran, voted, counted, gave results etc. Funny how a lot of white guys were the one interpreting it all.
That's a very strange statement. What did you expect to see?
Diversity among the commentators, or at least a woman doing more then being asked to kick an enlarged IPAD or do highlights once an hour. As I said, I'm so used to it now on both US and Canadian election coverage I found it strikingly weird.
Given the amount of strong women characters in British politics, you'd think the BBC would consider maybe some women can do political analysis rather then a bunch of guys?
Looked like an old boys network, or a big glass ceiling is in place.
They certainly had a fair few female politicians and asked some female journalists for their views, but you're right that the core team were almost exclusively white and male, though I hadn't noticed.
Most BBC news programmes seem to use a male/female pairing and their reporters and correspondents seem to me to represent gender and ethnicity fairly. Channel 4 news seems to have a higher proportion of non-white reporters than in the general population. The top ITV news reader for many years was black (now retired) and I haven't noticed male bias though I can't tell you about representative ethnicity.
So I wouldn't say your observation is wrong, just that you shouldn't read too much into one programme.
.
[ 07. May 2010, 23:51: Message edited by: Clint Boggis ]
Posted by piglet (# 11803) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Auntie Doris:
quote:
Originally posted by Yangtze:
Sigh, we truly are heading back to the 80s
Better fish out your shoulder pads dear.
Fire up the Quattro!
As I've said on another thread, I was quite riveted by the election coverage (BBC World - the same coverage that was on the interweb), and once again reminded of how much better the Beeb is than North American television. To be honest, I didn't even think about the gender or colour of the presenters or politicians; I was more likely to say "blimey, he's aged a bit" as it's the first time since leaving the UK that I've really watched much of politics on TV.
Posted by Sober Preacher's Kid (# 12699) on
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What!?!
The Beeb show was no better or worse than what the CBC puts on every election.
And might I remind you that we count quicker? I was one of the elves last time who made the Election work. From my hand to Peter Mansbridge's mouth....
Posted by daviddrinkell (# 8854) on
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I agree with piglet. The BBC does things better than anyone else. Learned but not stuffy, entertaining but not overloaded with razzmattazz.
[ 08. May 2010, 03:10: Message edited by: daviddrinkell ]
Posted by mousethief (# 953) on
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Certainly less obvious spin than any major US outlet - except maybe NPR. But then maybe I don't see the spin on NPR -- people say it's liberal and I'm pretty liberal. But does Fox interview people from the left and let them have their say without shouting them down? Like fuck.
Posted by North East Quine (# 13049) on
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I feel as though I was part of a different election. BBC Scotland's election coverage had two middle-aged, white male anchors - the jovial Brian Taylor and the other one; but the first panel of commentators comprised Prof. Susan Deacon, Prof. Tom Devine and Margo McDonald, MSP, and when their shift ended we had Prof. Alice Brown. Yes, they were all middle-aged and white but no gender issues that I could see.
Why would the Scottish coverage include so many senior academics, if, as has been claimed, the main BBC coverage resembled "It's a Knockout"? Perhaps the Scottish budget only stretched to academics??
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Og: Thread Killer:
We are 80% non-visual minority here, BTW.
What does this mean? 80% of people can't be seen? What's wrong with them, are they transparent?
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
The presence on the Guardian web site of an offer by the Guardian of a tee shirt showing Gordo saying something like 'Outside now, Posh Boy' is playing to the same stereotypes...
Oh for goodness' sake, that was an April Fools' joke that caught on because it was funny. It's not a left-wing anti-toff conspiracy.
Hmm - interesting how the left is recycling all the excuses trotted out in the past to justify sexism / racism...
There was a Channel 4 documentary recently where a white South African whose parents had brought him as a teenager to the UK in the 70s went back to find the maid who'd been his second mother. One of the things he mentioned was the prejudice he experienced exemplified by the 'Spitting Image' song I've never met a nice South African, particularly ironic when his very presence in England was an attempt by his parents to separate from those attitudes. Either be serious about diversity, or get honest and admit the political correctness is about point scoring against political opponents.
Posted by Michael Astley (# 5638) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Og: Thread Killer:
I watched some of the BBC coverage (2-4:30 your time) over the net.
Gosh that was combative...and white...and mostly male.
I saw two women who seemed to be thrown the bones of a minute an hour of coverage, with one of them working a silly touch machine that stopped working and the other relegated to headlines. I think I saw one female correspondent and not a single non-white person outside of the one Labour Lord, who got shouted down in about 10 seconds by that buffoon up on a gantry in front of the couch of Lord types (does he have ADD or something?).
I thought your country had some non-white people in it? Some of them might have voted? I saw a few women and non-whites ran, voted, counted, gave results etc. Funny how a lot of white guys were the one interpreting it all.
What, did all the non white people leave for Al-Jezzera English?
I fail on being male, but certainly non-white.
It would never even have occurred to me to think about it like that. The people who were there were presumably there because of what they do and who they are, not because of their sex or skin colour. That's of no interest to me as far as election reporting goes. Why would it be?
Besides, if anyone were to complain here about groups being "excluded" (not that I think you can claim exclusion just because a particular group happened not to be there), it would likely be from north of the border or west of the other border. Every country has its own pet issues and they won't be the same as those of other countries.
Please don't knock the Pax-man. He's splendid, and was on top form - especially the comment about getting into bed with Peter Mandelson. I was in stitches.
Posted by Angloid (# 159) on
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One particular minority was much in evidence: those who can survive for nigh on 24 hours without sleep. Nick Robinson was beginning to wilt a bit by the ten o'clock news yesterday, but I can't imagine how he kept going so long. The drug squad might have gained some interesting victims if they'd sniffed around the TV studios.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
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And 71-year old David Dimbleby managed an 18-hour stint on television without looking tired: he was still quite chipper at 3.45 pm on Friday. Puts a lot of younger men to shame.
Posted by sanityman (# 11598) on
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quote:
Originally posted by daviddrinkell:
I agree with piglet. The BBC does things better than anyone else. Learned but not stuffy, entertaining but not overloaded with razzmattazz.
Agreed - we seem very capable of forgetting that in this country. One hope the nice Mr Cameron is of that opinion when Spawn of Murdoch starts humping his trouser leg.
- Chris.
Posted by Beeswax Altar (# 11644) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
Certainly less obvious spin than any major US outlet - except maybe NPR. But then maybe I don't see the spin on NPR -- people say it's liberal and I'm pretty liberal. But does Fox interview people from the left and let them have their say without shouting them down? Like fuck.
As opposed to MSNBC's election coverage with Olberman and Matthews? If I didn't know better, I would have thought Rachael Madow was supposed to be the objective one. And they never shouted Buchanan down? I don't know about NPR. I like Garrison Keilor. The rest of it is a bit to pretentious for me. If we were across the pond, I might even call it "posh." Clearly intended for the liberal elite or if we were across the pond, those evil public school educated Tories who hate poor people.
[ 08. May 2010, 14:02: Message edited by: Beeswax Altar ]
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
At the moment there are a thousand protestors outside the lib dem meeting, calling for voting reform, chanting "you serve us".
(They seem to be from this organisation.
[ 08. May 2010, 14:30: Message edited by: Think² ]
Posted by DWJaddict (# 13866) on
:
Biblical™ Punk
# 683
- Posted 07 May, 2010 17:08 Profile for St. Punk the Pious Author's homepage Email St. Punk the Pious Send new private message Edit/delete post Reply with quote "I am pleased to see that Dr. Death, Evan Harris, got beat in Oxford West.
The Lib Dems deserve to lose if they run extremist prats like him."
He has been an excellent MP for my area for 13 years - greatly respected and conscientious, and it is a great injustice - something I'm assured by the Bible that God hates- that he has been hounded by self- righteous bigots who cannot distinguish between assisted dying for terminally ill people of sound mind and euthanasia, and because he knowledgeably supports potentially life saving scientific research.
The viciousness and determined ignorance of the leaflets we had though our door from 1. Lynda Rose and even worse 2. A convicted arsonist Animal rights nutter called Mann was appalling.
They decided me to certainly vote for him and I will do so in the next election too, however soon that is.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Think²:
At the moment there are a thousand protestors outside the lib dem meeting, calling for voting reform, chanting "you serve us".
(They seem to be from this organisation.
Looking at their website, one of Unlock Democracy's predecessor organisations is the Communist Party of Great Britain. Not really my idea of a democracy (and the sort of people who, arguably, should be locked up).
Posted by The Exegesis Fairy (# 9588) on
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There was a Take Back Parliament protest today in Trafalgar Square, I believe (their thing is electoral reform, and as far as I can tell that's their only thing).
Ah...no, wait, the protest was organised by those people, who are a coalition of different groups including Unlock Democracy.
Wonder how many turned up?
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
It was the same thing, the police wouldn't let them rally in Trafalagar Square, so they moved on then ended up going to Smith Square (? wherever the lib dems were meeting).
They were variously said to be power2010, takebackparliament and Unlock Democracy. Presumably they were working together.
[ 08. May 2010, 16:08: Message edited by: Think² ]
Posted by Angloid (# 159) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
[one of Unlock Democracy's predecessor organisations is the Communist Party of Great Britain. Not really my idea of a democracy (and the sort of people who, arguably, should be locked up). [/QB]
If that is even a half-serious comment as opposed to a feeble attempt at a joke, it has me worried for Britain under the Tories. So much for free speech.
For what it's worth, Unlock Democracy - about which I knew nothing until two minutes ago - is a merger between Charter 88 (by no means a far left pressure group) and the successor body to CPGB. I can't see what's wrong with supporting a good idea whoever else might agree with you.
Otherwise I'd object when the sun shines if Nick Griffin happened to say he liked warm weather.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
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Yes, of course it was a joke. Communists shouldn't be locked up just for being communists.
That said, I don't regard PR as more democratic than the current system. If anything, it's worse.
Posted by +Chad (# 5645) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariel:
quote:
Originally posted by St. Punk the Pious:
I am pleased to see that Dr. Death, Evan Harris, got beat in Oxford West.
Only just, though. He lost by just 176 votes.
He had a 7683 majority. There was a 6.9% swing against. That sounds like a pretty stiff kicking to me.
DWJaddict posted in Dr Harris' defence:
quote:
He has been an excellent MP for my area for 13 years - greatly respected and conscientious
Ian Paisley Sr's constituents would have said the same of him, but, it didn't prevent him from being an old bellows full of angry wind.
Posted by Sleepwalker (# 15343) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
The point is that your point actually backs up ken's thesis - industry in the North East was decimated in the 80s just like it was in Scotland, and so the Conservatives have been virtually extinguished in the North East, just as they have been in Scotland.
No, ken said that Scotland had been hit harder. I was saying that was rubbish. How am I backing up ken's 'thesis'?
quote:
I don't think it's the whole story though. Not even well-heeled, middle class Scottish constituencies return Conservatives nowadays.
That's probably because they want to be well-heeled, middle class Scots these days, rather than Brits, and the Tories are the party of the United Kingdom. Scotland should have full independence and the respective MPs removed from Westminster. That way, England would be fairly represented in its own system and the Scots could do what they heck they like.
Posted by Sleepwalker (# 15343) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Og: Thread Killer:
Diversity among the commentators, or at least a woman doing more then being asked to kick an enlarged IPAD or do highlights once an hour. As I said, I'm so used to it now on both US and Canadian election coverage I found it strikingly weird.
That's just because it wasn't what you're used to seeing. However, there are women all over the BBC. There isn't a day that goes by without a woman presenter in some guise or another. Ethnic minority presenters are rarer but then that may reflect their percentage of the population and/or the degree of aspiration among ethnic minority groups to become TV presenters (of any description).
quote:
Given the amount of strong women characters in British politics, you'd think the BBC would consider maybe some women can do political analysis rather then a bunch of guys?
There aren't a huge number of 'strong women characters' in British politics. It's still a male-dominated area. But just because women are politicians doesn't mean to say that women want to be political pundits. However, if they want to be and they are considered good enough, they are free to be. Black, white or otherwise.
quote:
Looked like an old boys network, or a big glass ceiling is in place.
You mean our telly looks different from yours? Good. That makes life interesting. I hate standardisation.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
In addition to Sleepwalker's comments, it should be noted that the BBC's election coverage marginalises many high-profile presenters, regardless of their sex or ethnicity. The main stuff is done by only three people: David Dimbleby (who's been in the main chair since 1979), the BBC's political editor (who happens at the moment to be Nick Robinson) and one other person to do the interviews (who this time was Jeremy Paxman).
Everyone else has a rather secondary role, which is why you would have seen fairly high profile BBC correspondents stuck out in the provinces reporting on events.
Posted by Jengie Jon (# 273) on
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Actually they aren't the first to notice this and its not the normal PC crowd who are saying it either. Apparently it is across the media too not just political commentators although worse there.
Jengie
Posted by John Holding (# 158) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by DWJaddict:
Biblical™ Punk
# 683
- Posted 07 May, 2010 17:08 Profile for St. Punk the Pious Author's homepage Email St. Punk the Pious Send new private message Edit/delete post Reply with quote "I am pleased to see that Dr. Death, Evan Harris, got beat in Oxford West.
[text deleted]
[Welcome to the Ship. Please take a look at the code thread in Styx, which should help you with how to quote using UBB. - John, Purg Host}
[ 08. May 2010, 18:19: Message edited by: John Holding ]
Posted by Sleepwalker (# 15343) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jengie Jon:
Actually they aren't the first to notice this and its not the normal PC crowd who are saying it either. Apparently it is across the media too not just political commentators although worse there.
I think she sounds rather bitter, actually. I thought this bit was quite funny:
Another is that there is, at the moment, a generation of younger male political pundits who have formed a peculiarly tight boys’ club: they plug each other, argue with one another in print, give each other name checks on their rounds of the broadcasting studios and generally engage in mutually congratulatory self-promotion. This atmosphere has been fuelled to an extent by the blogosphere which is dominated by male aggression of a particularly puerile kind and which either ignores women altogether or treats them to the sort of abuse that most of us left behind in the primary school playground. The blogging scene might still be a minority interest but its tone is beginning to influence the expectations of those who follow political debate.
What's new about that, exactly?
If she is worried about women only getting 'soft' issues and this has been something of a trend over the last few years, then maybe she might want to write about (in a suitably assertive fashion) the attitudes of women over the last few years. The two might even be connected.
She might then want to go and throw all pink phones in the bin, all pink girls' clothes, all Playboy stuff from W H Smiths, all mothers who wanted to buy padded bras from Primark for their pre-pubescent daughters; all women who want to be Miss World; in short, all the women who have, over the last few years, threatened to undo all the good work done in a previous generation to get us women taken seriously in the first place. There are a lot of women out there, especially younger women, who are seriously in the business of reinforcing stereotypes. It's time someone took some serious action around here.
Not least because I bloody hate pink.
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
Preach it, sister !
Posted by Nightlamp (# 266) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by daviddrinkell:
I agree with piglet. The BBC does things better than anyone else. Learned but not stuffy, entertaining but not overloaded with razzmattazz.
In the short period I watched it I hated it when they visited the boat party which I really didn't get. I think they should have broken it up with an episode of yes prime minister.
I expect we will be having another election sometime before the end of the year. Hopefully without the boat.
[ 08. May 2010, 20:24: Message edited by: Nightlamp ]
Posted by Jengie Jon (# 273) on
:
Most people who hit a glass ceiling tend to be bitter in my experience. The fact is she is trained political pundit who is not asked to talk about anything but women's issues yet expertise is largely elsewhere.
Jengie
Posted by Sleepwalker (# 15343) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Think²:
Preach it, sister !
Posted by Jengie Jon (# 273) on
:
Just to add
I just glad my neice is a skilled social operator* who at the age of six has seen through the pink thing and gone onto yellow instead. Of course it is a pain to buy her things but at least she has taste.
Jengie
*Not based on this alone, that gal is seriously socially aware.
Posted by Angloid (# 159) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
quote:
Originally posted by daviddrinkell:
I agree with piglet. The BBC does things better than anyone else. Learned but not stuffy, entertaining but not overloaded with razzmattazz.
In the short period I watched it I hated it when they visited the boat party which I really didn't get.
It would have been OK without Andrew Neil.
Posted by Sleepwalker (# 15343) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jengie Jon:
Just to add
I just glad my neice is a skilled social operator* who at the age of six has seen through the pink thing and gone onto yellow instead. Of course it is a pain to buy her things but at least she has taste.
Very good taste!
[ 08. May 2010, 20:39: Message edited by: Sleepwalker ]
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
Andrew Neil has had a very good election so far. The boat thing was too expensive and rather insensitive given that i) the BBC is supposed to be strapped for cash and ii) (and more importantly) the nation isn't too economically healthy at the moment.
I don't know whether all the guests were interviewed but I'm not sure why we really want to hear the political analysis of Ben Kingsley, Bruce Forsyth, David Baddiel, Richard Madeley or Richard Madeley's daughter.
Posted by Nightlamp (# 266) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Pottage:
equate not to 1 in 120 but to about 1 in 50.
That equals to about 13 MPs in a pure PR list system. Making certain that Nick Griffin would be a permanent fixture in parliament.
Posted by Louise (# 30) on
:
In Scotland we have the additional member system. We've had it for about nine years now, it works well. It's particularly good at redressing the problems which FPTP causes, because the parties which do badly on the FPTP proportionately recoup their fortunes on the regional list. The one hiccup with the system was caused by a very badly designed second ballot paper at the last election, and that has been fixed now.
You have both a constituency MSP and choice of list MSPs in the larger region, which actually works very well, as if your constituency MSP doesn't share your views, there's usually a regional list one who does, who you can choose to write to.
No Nazis or BNP have been elected. In the first parliament under the system, we did get quite a few MSPs from smaller parties (like the Senior Citizens Party and Scottish Social Party) but now the novelty has worn off, we just have SNP, Lib, Lab, Conservative and Greens and an independent - fewer parties than you'll see at Westminster. We've had either government by coalition or minority government, since the system started and the sky hasn't fallen.
It's really very weird to hear some of the scaremongering about PR from south of the Border.
L.
Posted by Nightlamp (# 266) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Louise:
It's really very weird to hear some of the scaremongering about PR from south of the Border.
Indeed but then the Scots don't use a a pure PR system as you have just said. If the scottish system were adopted in the UK there might be one or two BNP people if that. I have no idea what the Lib Dems support I always assumed it was a pure PR list.
I really dislike the idea of a hated politician getting chuked out by the local people but to return like the living dead via a regional list.
Personally I support a PR system for the upper house where a person can sit for a maximum of 2 terms (8 years?) but also their party has to show a certain level of support (5%?) before the party is eligible for a seat in the upper house.
Posted by Louise (# 30) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
Indeed but then the Scots don't use a a pure PR system as you have just said. If the scottish system were adopted in the UK there might be one or two BNP people if that. I have no idea what the Lib Dems support I always assumed it was a pure PR list.
I really dislike the idea of a hated politician getting chuked out by the local people but to return like the living dead via a regional list.
They are for STV in multi-member constituencies which isn't a party list system. It's not a bad system either, however the system used in Scotland and Wales has been tested and works well, and I cant see why that couldn't be used in England as well. It would certainly tackle the problem of what happens to third parties, but without losing the good side of having truly local constituency MPs.
As for 'hated politicians' returning via the list, I haven't seen that but I have seen the opposite. When parties deselect popular politicians they can make a comeback via putting themselves as individuals on the regional lists - Margo Macdonald being a good example in my area.
L.
Posted by Beeswax Altar (# 11644) on
:
Another question from across the pond.
As best as I can tell, the Lib-Dems are somewhat of a coalition themselves. Wouldn't it cause something of debate among themselves about acceptable terms for a coalition? I'm still not entirely sure what separates the Lib Dems from the other parties. Granted, I've only read the web sites and wikipedia articles.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
Here is a short article from the BBC about the effect of PR on New Zealand politics. It is interesting to note that smaller parties know not to push their agenda too hard, and the electorate recognise that fact.
Parties here - major and minor - still fall on the left or right of the spectrum. The big two under FPTP - Labour and National - are still with us. There are also, however left and right-wing alternatives. Voting here is rather like choosing one's ice cream, and then choosing a topping to go with it.
The Lib Dems should note that a radical centrist party existed under FPTP, but it did not survive the change to PR.
Posted by Beeswax Altar (# 11644) on
:
Wouldn't the same thing be accomplished with a Single Transferable Vote system?
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
Question from an American: Why so few Conservative MPs from Scotland? Is Scotland just that more left wing?
quote:
Anglican't's reply:Back in the 1950s, the Conservatives routinely got half the vote in Scotland. They've been squeezed by the other parties and the de-industrialisation of the 1970s/1980s is said to have hit Scotland particularly hard.
Having lived in Scotland in the 1990s (where I studied Scottish history), my opinion is that the Conservatives are seen as an English party, or more specifically, a party that represents the British establishment, which Scots have never been entirely aligned to, and in recent years have become increasingly detached from.
It is more or less true, as Anglican't says, that the Conservatives got close to half the vote in Scotland in the 50s (in fact, they outpolled the Labour Party in every election in that decade). That was, however, a high-water mark. They generally did worse in the late 19th and the early 20th centuries, and, of course, their share of the Scottish vote has consistently declined since the 50s.
In short, in England, the Conservatives were (and perhaps are still) the party of the traditional establishment. In Scotland, they were (and are) a party that stands for another country's continued link to it. I think they have always been slightly foreign. Perhaps their strong performance in the 1950s is because they had recently swallowed bits of the Liberal Party, who tended to be stronger in Scotland.
I think it must be true that Scotland is overall more left-wing than England (although this is a gross generalisation) as despite the Conservatives' low support, no centre-right alternative has emerged to threaten them (NB: I have heard that the SNP were originally right-wing and nicknamed the Tartan Tories, but I understand that they were very much a fringe party then).
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Beeswax Altar:
Another question from across the pond.
As best as I can tell, the Lib-Dems are somewhat of a coalition themselves. Wouldn't it cause something of debate among themselves about acceptable terms for a coalition? I'm still not entirely sure what separates the Lib Dems from the other parties. Granted, I've only read the web sites and wikipedia articles.
The party stands for liberty of the individual. Obviously, that creates a tension between those who see the State as having a role in empowering individual liberty, and those who think such a belief is an oxymoron.
The party itself was created by a merger of the SDP (an offshoot of the Labour Party, and which tended to the former) and Liberal Party (who tended to the latter), and if one looked closely, one could see that the party still retained those two distinct wings.
So yes, I'm absolutely sure that a furious debate is taking place in the Lib Dem rank and file. When I was an active party member, coalition with the Tories would have been unthinkable: but that was partly because they were considered such a bunch of arseholes at the time.
[ 09. May 2010, 04:09: Message edited by: Cod ]
Posted by Sleepwalker (# 15343) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
quote:
Originally posted by Pottage:
equate not to 1 in 120 but to about 1 in 50.
That equals to about 13 MPs in a pure PR list system. Making certain that Nick Griffin would be a permanent fixture in parliament.
He could even hold the balance of power, which is a scary thought.
Posted by North East Quine (# 13049) on
:
I think Cod's analysis of the Conservative situation in Scotland is spot on.
As someone who lived in Scotland during the 1980s, my personal impression is that the Poll Tax debacle did a lot of harm. It was tested out in Scotland ahead of the rest of the UK and was done in a very ham-fisted way. The regulations hadn't been properly drafted and difficulties were being ironed out on the hoof as it were.
For instance, the regulations made one "person" in each "household" the responsible person for the whole "household" In student halls of residence the person whose surname came first alphabetically was "responsible" for everyone in the Halls. This not only fomented student unrest, it horrified the parents of students, who tended to be the sort of middle-aged well-to-do people who might have been right-of-centre politically themselves.
In my own case my landlord was "responsible" for me because I was renting out the flat above his business. I had dutifully given him all my details but, as I didn't have a middle name, I'd left the "middle-name" bit blank. The form was bounced back and he was given a short period of time to either fill in a middle name for me, or confirm definitely that I didn't have one. Unfortunately I was on holiday and he couldn't contact me. He was told that he would be fined if he didn't provide the information before I returned from holiday. He was able to contact one of my friends, who didn't know either, but she was able to ask around other friends. I came back from holiday to find lots of people dismayed that my landlord had been threatened with a fine.
I could list lots of similar situations within my own knowledge.
Lots of law-abiding, mildly a-political Scottish people found themselves threatened with fines etc under the Poll Tax. I think it changed something in the political consciousness. There was a Spitting Image sketch of Maggie Thatcher raking her nails down a map of Scotland, calling it "the testing ground."
I think the ironing out of the Poll Tax legislation in Scotland alienated a lot of Scots who might not have had particularly strong views re the Conservatives prior to that.
Posted by Taliesin (# 14017) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
quote:
Originally posted by Beeswax Altar:
Another question from across the pond.
As best as I can tell, the Lib-Dems are somewhat of a coalition themselves. Wouldn't it cause something of debate among themselves about acceptable terms for a coalition? I'm still not entirely sure what separates the Lib Dems from the other parties. Granted, I've only read the web sites and wikipedia articles.
The party stands for liberty of the individual. Obviously, that creates a tension between those who see the State as having a role in empowering individual liberty, and those who think such a belief is an oxymoron.
The party itself was created by a merger of the SDP (an offshoot of the Labour Party, and which tended to the former) and Liberal Party (who tended to the latter), and if one looked closely, one could see that the party still retained those two distinct wings.
So yes, I'm absolutely sure that a furious debate is taking place in the Lib Dem rank and file. When I was an active party member, coalition with the Tories would have been unthinkable: but that was partly because they were considered such a bunch of arseholes at the time.
I'm completely furious that they're even SPEAKING to the conservatives. What was the point, all those years, of tactical voting (where a Labour supporter votes LibDem in those areas where labour has no chance, in order to prevent the tories getting in) if they're now picking up the long spoons and settling down to supper????
Posted by Ariel (# 58) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Beeswax Altar:
As best as I can tell, the Lib-Dems are somewhat of a coalition themselves. Wouldn't it cause something of debate among themselves about acceptable terms for a coalition?
Yes, they have a fairly broad spectrum of views and Nick Clegg is going to have quite a struggle to find a solution that works for his party. One MP has already said that if the Lib Dems go in with the Conservatives, she would go back to Labour, where she came from originally. (They had a selection of Liberal comments on the BBC site yesterday which I can't now find.) I suspect she may not be the only one.
It is uncertain ground and Nick Clegg will have to prove he is a skilled enough politician to hold his party together without their losing faith in him and seeing it as selling out. A Con-Lib alliance would be hard work.
Posted by Robert Armin (# 182) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
Andrew Neil has had a very good election so far. The boat thing was too expensive and rather insensitive given that i) the BBC is supposed to be strapped for cash and ii) (and more importantly) the nation isn't too economically healthy at the moment.
I don't know whether all the guests were interviewed but I'm not sure why we really want to hear the political analysis of Ben Kingsley, Bruce Forsyth, David Baddiel, Richard Madeley or Richard Madeley's daughter.
What WAS that boat about? Apart from being a complete farce? I don't want to see Forsyth even as an entertainer; why would anyone want to hear his views on politics? (When I was feeling vindictive I was hoping the whole thing would sink.)
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
Further to Beeswax Altar's question about the Lib Dems, it should be pointed out that the Labour and Conservative parties are coalitions, too.
The Labour party contains (or used to contain) a hard left whose instinct is to nationalise everything that moves and who wept at the demise of the Soviet Union as well as a moderate, Blairite, wing who believe in market-oriented solutions to the provision of public sector services.
Similarly the Conservatives have moderate figures such as Ken Clarke in their ranks alongside much more right-wing people such as Edward Leigh.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
True. I remember (when studying a politics paper) that the Tories were a grand coalition of three groups: the Technocrats (right-wing Keynsians), the Patricians (various knights of the shires and other grandees) and the English Nationalists, e.g. Margaret Thatcher. The latter got the upper hand in the 1980s and have never relinquished it - so the theory goes.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
Ntot English nationalists so much as Friedman-ite monetarist libertarians.
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
Andrew Neil has had a very good election so far. The boat thing was too expensive and rather insensitive given that i) the BBC is supposed to be strapped for cash and ii) (and more importantly) the nation isn't too economically healthy at the moment.
I don't know whether all the guests were interviewed but I'm not sure why we really want to hear the political analysis of Ben Kingsley, Bruce Forsyth, David Baddiel, Richard Madeley or Richard Madeley's daughter.
Agreed. What was worse was that Neill hardly ever allowed his guests to answer a question.
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sleepwalker:
quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
...That equals to about 13 MPs in a pure PR list system. Making certain that Nick Griffin would be a permanent fixture in parliament.
He could even hold the balance of power, which is a scary thought.
Surely if things are that divided that his vote makes a difference (so 250 PartyA, 245 PartyB 12 BNP) then:
Either the issue is so morally neutral that it doesn't matter what the result is
Or
The blame lies just as much with the 248 any could defect and (having not been elected on the evil ticket) presumably some ought to.
In either case the result is the same as if the BNP members were replaced by presumably PartyB, besides you'll also have the Trot's, Greens etc*...
If the worry is some deal like if the BNP vote for Cabbage as the national food then we'll vote for a new holocaust then problems still lie with those making the deal (as well).
*N.B. The KKK did at one point have some unusual alliances so maybe that clause does break down.
Posted by phil2357 (# 15431) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Taliesin:
I'm completely furious that they're even SPEAKING to the conservatives. What was the point, all those years, of tactical voting (where a Labour supporter votes LibDem in those areas where labour has no chance, in order to prevent the tories getting in) if they're now picking up the long spoons and settling down to supper????
Well, I don't recall the Lib Dems ever ruling out entering a coalition with the Conservatives. I do recall Nick Clegg susggesting that he couldn't work with Gordon Brown (fair enough - I don't think consensus politics is Gordon's style). On that basis, I would say that a vote for the Lib Dems is precisely that - a vote for the Lib Dems. Wearing FPTP glasses, if your chosen candidate won in your electorate, be happy. It's up to the MPs now to sort out some arrangement that will give us stable government for the next term.
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Taliesin:
I'm completely furious that they're even SPEAKING to the conservatives. What was the point, all those years, of tactical voting (where a Labour supporter votes LibDem in those areas where labour has no chance, in order to prevent the tories getting in) if they're now picking up the long spoons and settling down to supper????
Well I don't know why.
Nick Clegg is doing after the election, exactly what he said he would do before the election.
He made it absolutely clear that if the Conservatives had say a 7 point and 50 seat lead over Labour that he would talk to them first.
There is no point in talking to Gordon Brown, there is never any point in talking to Gordon Brown. He is Mr No Compromise, not necessarily a bad thing, but just not workable in this situation, proposing to lead a seven party coalition into inevitable collapse after six months.
Whereas Clegg and Cameron get on personally well. They could easily do a workable deal if they didn't have the left and right fringes of their own party to deal with.
If the LibDems are non co-operative with the largest party in a Hung Parliament then the case for their new PR politics is in doubt.
If we end up with the chaos of an early July election, expect a big squeeze on the LibDems marginal seats from both Conservative and Labour.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
If you are a Lib Dem you presumably favour electoral 'reform' and proportional representation. If so, I don't see how you can object to a Con-Lib coalition. It has to be one of the options on the cards in the type of parliament that PR inevitably produces.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
Agreed completely with both of the last two posts; if the Lib Dems can't deliver a stable coalition with the Conservatives, or at least a stable minority Conservative goverment, then they shoot themselves and the case for PR in the foot.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Taliesin:
I'm completely furious that they're even SPEAKING to the conservatives. What was the point, all those years, of tactical voting (where a Labour supporter votes LibDem in those areas where labour has no chance, in order to prevent the tories getting in) if they're now picking up the long spoons and settling down to supper????
Speaking as someone who has been forced to vote for the Liberals as the only alternative to the one party Labour state that is Manchester City Council, the prospect for me, and presumably many others in the same position, of the LibDems cuddling up to their visceral opponents here is equally galling. So get over it - the LibDems have substantial elements of anti-Labour voters as well as anti-Conservative voters; you are a coalition - demonstrate you can act like one or else admit that FPTP is the only solution to avoid the coalitions that you've proved won't work when push comes to shove
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
:
I do wonder if we ever had PR that the Lib Dems won't split back into the Liberal and SDP again.
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
If the Lib Dems can't deliver a stable coalition with the Conservatives, or at least a stable minority Conservative goverment, then they shoot themselves and the case for PR in the foot.
I don't think that's at all true. Another way to argue would be to say that 49% of the electorate voted for centre-left/progressive parties (55% if you add Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru), but only 36% for the centre-right party. So, from a proportional point of view, a Lab-Lib alliance is the result which most reflects the electorate's wishes. The fact that the Tories are the largest party could be seen as irrelevant if you are interpreting the results on ideological grounds.
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
:
You are making the assumption that the Lib Dems are much closer to Labour than the Conservatives. I'm not sure that is actually true.
Labour are looking like very bad losers.
I have been very impressed by the behaviour of the leadership of the Lib Dems, and I have never voted for them in my life. (They seem to have offended quite a lot of their own voters in the process.)
Posted by BroJames (# 9636) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Taliesin:
I'm completely furious that they're even SPEAKING to the conservatives. What was the point, all those years, of tactical voting (where a Labour supporter votes LibDem in those areas where labour has no chance, in order to prevent the tories getting in) if they're now picking up the long spoons and settling down to supper????
I recognise where you are coming from, but there are also places in the UK where people have voted LibDem in order to oust/keep out Labour candidates where Conservatives don't stand a chance. That is always the risk with tactical voting - unless you are also happy to trust the person/party you are voting for when a situation such as the present one arises.
Posted by Beeswax Altar (# 11644) on
:
Well, if it is as simple as all that, why have all of those center left parties in the first place if they all share the same ideology? Any coalition of center left parties will be lead by Labor. People clearly chose not to vote for Labor knowing that in all likelihood doing so would result in Conservatives gaining control of the government. The Conservatives almost won enough seats to have a majority. How do you know that the second choice of those voting Lib-Dem wasn't Conservative? Wouldn't that make sense given the state of the UK?
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
You are making the assumption that the Lib Dems are much closer to Labour than the Conservatives. I'm not sure that is actually true.
Let's look at it issue-by-issue:
- The deficit: This election was supposed to be defined by the economy and how best to reduce the deficit and maintain growth. The Lib Dem position on the correct time to introduce cuts (I mean 'efficiency savings') was much closer to Labour. On the other hand, they made a big deal about being the most 'honest' with the electorate about what was to come. I think that puts them substantially nearer Labour.
- Europe: A no-brainer for Labour.
- Education: The Lib Dem's ideas about how education should be funded are substantially nearer the Conservatives.
- Civil liberties: I'm not sure the Lib Dem position is very close to either party on this. Sure, the Tories don't want ID cards (or so they say) but that's because of the cost, not because of ideology. I'd call that a no-score draw.
- NHS: I don't know about this one: What distinctive policies do the Lib Dems have on health?
- Electoral reform: Given that the Tories are completely against the idea of voting reform for the House of Commons (reducing the number of MPs is just window-dressing, not reform) and haven't made much noise about reform of the Lords, this is easily for Labour.
- Energy policy/environmentalism: A number of high profile Tories deny that climate change even exists. Is there really any chance that the Lib Dems could work with them on this? I think not. Both big parties are in favour of new nuclear power plants, so that doesn't differentiate between them. I think this issue marginally goes with Labour.
- Defence: This issue is somewhat mixed. On the one hand, the Tories and the Lib Dems are agreed that a comprehensive review of the military is needed. On the other hand, the Tories are committed to a like-for-like replacement for Trident, the Typhoon, and so on. Labour are also committed to those things, but are perhaps closer to the Lib Dems on general levels of military spending. A score draw.
So on that analysis, I would say that the Lib Dems are rather closer to Labour. But I may have missed out some important issues so please feel free to add to the list or correct any inaccuracies in what I wrote.
Posted by Edward Green (# 46) on
:
Just a couple of thoughts.
The number of votes under the current system is not representative at all, as the turnout varies remarkably throughout the country. Yes there is a class issue here.
Say for example you have two areas. Both with 100,000 people for easy maths - although 74,000 is the UK average.
The first has a turn out of 40% - 40,000 people vote, 20,000 party A, 15,000 party B, 5,000 party C.
The second has a turn out of 60% - 60,000 people vote, 30,000 party B, 25,000 party C, 5,000 Party A
Under first past the post the 20,000 who vote in area 1 are seen to represent half the electorate. As are the 30,000 in are 2. This is actually fair if you think about it, as frankly in some very safe seats and especially in working class areas less people vote, but even those who don't vote should have their 'non-vote' counted on the basis that voting patterns would have been the same if they had. So the two seats would go to parties A & B.
However on number of votes combined we have:
Party B 45,0000
Party C 30,0000
Party A 25,0000
Which is the sort of figures we see in 'share of the vote' on a national level. This would suggest that Party C should have a seat not Party A.
If you adjust the first area with a weighting to represent the number of residents the voters represent we would get a result of B, A, C. (I think!)
So the advantage of FPTP is that is doesn't disenfranchise areas with low turnouts. We may think that if people don't vote they shouldn't have a voice, but listening to the radio on election day and hearing that 'rain traditionally knocks the labour vote by 2-5%' saddens me!
Any new system has to work with this. Either to increase turnouts, or to recognise that areas of low turnout need a weight of representation relevant to their population, not just to who from that population turns out to vote.
Posted by QLib (# 43) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by BroJames:
quote:
Originally posted by Taliesin:
I'm completely furious that they're even SPEAKING to the conservatives. What was the point, all those years, of tactical voting (where a Labour supporter votes LibDem in those areas where labour has no chance, in order to prevent the tories getting in) if they're now picking up the long spoons and settling down to supper????
I recognise where you are coming from, but there are also places in the UK where people have voted LibDem in order to oust/keep out Labour candidates where Conservatives don't stand a chance. That is always the risk with tactical voting - unless you are also happy to trust the person/party you are voting for when a situation such as the present one arises.
Taliesin, you need to chill. What Brojames says is right. Furthermore, even if the Lib Dems went in with Labour, the numbers would be so finely balanced, the government would be unstable. And what Clegg is saying is that the Tories, as the party with both the biggest number of seats and the biggest number of votes, have a moral right to lead the government. He said he would take that view during the campaign, so if you're feeling betrayed should perhaps have listened more carefully to his answers to those "What if..." questions.
I don't welcome the thought of a Tory government, but "the people have spoken" and to ignore what's been said (which is pretty clearly 'Gordon out!") would make the LibDems very, very unpopular.
Take comfort from this - the next few years are going to be pretty ugly, whoever holds power and it's very likely that the party that governs during this time will be out on its ear at the next opportunity. I'm no fan of Brown's, but I think he's been treated very unfairly. In 5 years time, I reckon many will acknowledge how lucky we were to have Gordon at the helm over the last year (even though he should have listened to Vince Cable and done more to stop us getting into that mess in the first place).
If the LibDems goes in with the Tories, they can moderate the worst of Tory nonsense, and then, I hope, if Cameron does come through on Proportional Representation - he can help to bring them down, once it's clear that the electorate have come to their senses and realise we need a progressive, liberal-left government. I reckon that will probably only take 2-3 years.
Posted by Edward Green (# 46) on
:
Ooopsa! Wrong thread.
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
You are making the assumption that the Lib Dems are much closer to Labour than the Conservatives. I'm not sure that is actually true.
Let's look at it issue-by-issue:
- The deficit: This election was supposed to be defined by the economy and how best to reduce the deficit and maintain growth. The Lib Dem position on the correct time to introduce cuts (I mean 'efficiency savings') was much closer to Labour. On the other hand, they made a big deal about being the most 'honest' with the electorate about what was to come. I think that puts them substantially nearer Labour.
- Europe: A no-brainer for Labour.
- Education: The Lib Dem's ideas about how education should be funded are substantially nearer the Conservatives.
- Civil liberties: I'm not sure the Lib Dem position is very close to either party on this. Sure, the Tories don't want ID cards (or so they say) but that's because of the cost, not because of ideology. I'd call that a no-score draw.
- NHS: I don't know about this one: What distinctive policies do the Lib Dems have on health?
- Electoral reform: Given that the Tories are completely against the idea of voting reform for the House of Commons (reducing the number of MPs is just window-dressing, not reform) and haven't made much noise about reform of the Lords, this is easily for Labour.
- Energy policy/environmentalism: A number of high profile Tories deny that climate change even exists. Is there really any chance that the Lib Dems could work with them on this? I think not. Both big parties are in favour of new nuclear power plants, so that doesn't differentiate between them. I think this issue marginally goes with Labour.
- Defence: This issue is somewhat mixed. On the one hand, the Tories and the Lib Dems are agreed that a comprehensive review of the military is needed. On the other hand, the Tories are committed to a like-for-like replacement for Trident, the Typhoon, and so on. Labour are also committed to those things, but are perhaps closer to the Lib Dems on general levels of military spending. A score draw.
So on that analysis, I would say that the Lib Dems are rather closer to Labour. But I may have missed out some important issues so please feel free to add to the list or correct any inaccuracies in what I wrote.
Gordon Brown and most of the Labour Party don't want PR either. They would go for AV which is not much more PR than FPTP.
Europe is in such trouble at the moment that I don't think that is an issue on which the LibDems can make much hay with this.
On the deficit, the Lib Dems are closer to the Tories on the action, but not the timing, but the longer this uncertainty goes on the sooner the next Financial Year is.
Civil liberties: Much closer links between the Tories and Lib Dems on ID cards, ContactPoint. Can see a joint bill here even without a coalition.
Education: Not much problem in agreeing a ministry and a bill here, with or without a coalition.
Long-term defence is a difference, but I don't think this Parliament is going to last past two years, so a decision deferred is a problem solved.
Environment is an issue that divides the Tory left and right. But surely a chance for the Lib Dems to be a positive force?
It is not clear cut, either way. But there is enough agreement to get a Queen's Speech through, if both sides want to do it.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
Let's look at it issue-by-issue:
The deficit: This election was supposed to be defined by the economy and how best to reduce the deficit and maintain growth. The Lib Dem position on the correct time to introduce cuts (I mean 'efficiency savings') was much closer to Labour. On the other hand, they made a big deal about being the most 'honest' with the electorate about what was to come. I think that puts them substantially nearer Labour.
The Liberals have spoken of the need for 'savage cuts' in a way that Labour haven't. There might be some disagreement about timing, but otherwise I think the Conservatives and Lib Dems both agree on the need for a radical reduction in public expenditure.
Certain Lib Dem policies, viz raising the income tax threshold to £10,000, would be very popular with Conservatives, although they would not agree with the way the Lib Dems propose to finance it.
I think there's plenty of common ground between the Conservatives and Liberals on this issue.
quote:
Civil liberties: I'm not sure the Lib Dem position is very close to either party on this. Sure, the Tories don't want ID cards (or so they say) but that's because of the cost, not because of ideology. I'd call that a no-score draw.
I disagree. Many Conservatives (in fact, I'd say almost all of them) are opposed to ID cards on ideological grounds - David Cameron has said in a speech that the culture of 'ihre Papieren, bitte' is alien to the UK.
Labour has been increasingly authoritarian over the last decade and the Conservatives and Liberals have been drifting the other way, emphasising the need for civil liberties. There is much more common ground in this area than you make out.
Posted by Nightlamp (# 266) on
:
If I was Cameron I would get an alliance under any terms. Get the IMF to come in and to give a report on the state of public finances. Announce things are far worse because of Labour's shoddy work. Call another election to say I need a full mandate to carry out the work that is needed. By that time Labour will have just gone through a terrible internal election or maybe in the middle of one and the Lib-Dem's won't have much money to run an election campaign. Hope for the best.
Posted by Louise (# 30) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
Gordon Brown and most of the Labour Party don't want PR either. They would go for AV which is not much more PR than FPTP.
I don't doubt that many Labour MPs want to stick with FPTP, but you are wrong to minimise the difference that AV makes. It is a complete game changer. You've seen the strength of the Labour vote in Scotland and yet under AV they have never been able to hold an outright majority in the Scottish parliament. Nor have the two major parties Labour/SNP been able to squeeze out Liberal and Tory voices in the ridiculous way that FPTP has allowed the Liberal vote to be devalued in England.
On election night we had (rightly) gasps of shock and horror from all parties as some hundreds of people were unable to vote due to polling station problems - well how much more of a problem is it when you have six million eight hundred thousand liberal voters (just for starters) whose votes were so devalued by the system that effectively hundreds of thousands of them were disenfranchised?
Voting reform is not some little fringe issue to be brushed off, The electoral system is badly broken, has been for a long time and a first priority should be fixing it. I say this as someone who is not a lib dem voter and as someone who thinks it was equally wrong that Blair once held supreme power on a minority vote.
L.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
There are a lot of Labour MPs who support FPTP, even if it isn't most of them. If there was a genuine free vote in the House of Commons on the issue, most MPs (i.e. the Conservatives, a substantial number of Labour MPs and perhaps others) would vote for the status quo.
Posted by Louise (# 30) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
There are a lot of Labour MPs who support FPTP, even if it isn't most of them. If there was a genuine free vote in the House of Commons on the issue, most MPs (i.e. the Conservatives, a substantial number of Labour MPs and perhaps others) would vote for the status quo.
Which speaks badly of all of you, and shows your true colours, that you put power for yourselves first and democracy second.
L.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
That depends on whether you think PR is more democratic. Personally, I don't think it is.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
If the Lib Dems can't deliver a stable coalition with the Conservatives, or at least a stable minority Conservative goverment, then they shoot themselves and the case for PR in the foot.
I don't think that's at all true. Another way to argue would be to say that 49% of the electorate voted for centre-left/progressive parties (55% if you add Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru), but only 36% for the centre-right party. So, from a proportional point of view, a Lab-Lib alliance is the result which most reflects the electorate's wishes. The fact that the Tories are the largest party could be seen as irrelevant if you are interpreting the results on ideological grounds.
But, be honest, would such a 'Rainbow Coalition' of Lab+Lib+SNP+PC+Greens actually work and deliver a stable government capable of sorting out the mess we're in? [ETA It also assumes that the Lib Dems are 'centre-left' which not all of them are...]
[ 09. May 2010, 15:45: Message edited by: Matt Black ]
Posted by Ariel (# 58) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
But, be honest, would such a 'Rainbow Coalition' of Lab+Lib+SNP+PC+Greens actually work and deliver a stable government capable of sorting out the mess we're in?
I'd wondered that too. I can't see it holding up for long without fragmenting, and there being another early election. Which might well result in another hung parliament.
Fingers crossed for a Con-Lib pact, I suppose. Both parties recognize that something needs to be done pretty quickly and as Paddy Ashdown has said, events in Greece have focused the mind.
ETA I see someone has put Nick Clegg on eBay!
[ 09. May 2010, 15:52: Message edited by: Ariel ]
Posted by Sleepwalker (# 15343) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Louise:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
There are a lot of Labour MPs who support FPTP, even if it isn't most of them. If there was a genuine free vote in the House of Commons on the issue, most MPs (i.e. the Conservatives, a substantial number of Labour MPs and perhaps others) would vote for the status quo.
Which speaks badly of all of you, and shows your true colours, that you put power for yourselves first and democracy second.
I don't see what is so democractic about a system that gives significant power to insignificant parties.
Also, I don't think PR is the most important issue. I think the economy is and it would appear to me that both Cameron and Clegg have been extremely professional in the way they have dealt with matters so far. It is imperative that something is worked out, and quickly, so that there are no repercussions for the economy.
Posted by Ricardus (# 8757) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sleepwalker:
I don't see what is so democractic about a system that gives significant power to insignificant parties.
Instead of one that gives significant power to marginal constituencies?
Posted by Angloid (# 159) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
quote:
Originally posted by Sleepwalker:
I don't see what is so democractic about a system that gives significant power to insignificant parties.
Instead of one that gives significant power to marginal constituencies?
Part of the argument is that the Lib Dems, for example, are not as marginal as the number of their seats seems to show. I'm not one of their supporters, but it doesn't seem fair that Labour should have over four times the number of seats with only 6% more votes.
I'd hate to see the BNP represented in Parliament, but if their performance in local councils is any guide they would soon make a laughing stock of themselves and be voted out next time round. And there is always the option of setting a threshold percentage which would exclude them.
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
If I was Cameron I would get an alliance under any terms. Get the IMF to come in and to give a report on the state of public finances. Announce things are far worse because of Labour's shoddy work. Call another election to say I need a full mandate to carry out the work that is needed. By that time Labour will have just gone through a terrible internal election or maybe in the middle of one and the Lib-Dem's won't have much money to run an election campaign. Hope for the best.
Would that not cause a massive pro-longed run on the pound, and massively increase the cost of borrowing thereby increasing the deficit ? (Given that business leaders are assuring us the markets are panicking over the prospect of a week-long hiatus with a caretaker orime minister - nevermind an election in under a year and the involvement of the IMF.)
Posted by Ariel (# 58) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Angloid:
I'd hate to see the BNP represented in Parliament, but if their performance in local councils is any guide they would soon make a laughing stock of themselves and be voted out next time round. And there is always the option of setting a threshold percentage which would exclude them.
The BNP managed to get over 5,000 votes this time round. Two of them are already MEPs, if I remember correctly. What if they exceeded such a threshold percentage? Raise it again to keep them out and be laid open to allegations of undemocratic practice?
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
You are making the assumption that the Lib Dems are much closer to Labour than the Conservatives. I'm not sure that is actually true.
Labour are looking like very bad losers.
I have been very impressed by the behaviour of the leadership of the Lib Dems, and I have never voted for them in my life. (They seem to have offended quite a lot of their own voters in the process.)
I think that is rather unfair. The incumbent prime minister has invited the largest party to try to form a workable government, and said failing that he'll try. What did you expect him to do ? He can't resign until an alternative administration has been established - otherwise he is handing over without anyone to run the day to day business of government whilst a deal is thrashed out. Just dumping the job on the deputy prime minister, would change nothing - as no new policy initiatives can be taken during the caretaker phase, and would just divert some civil servants into having to rapidly brief some knackered other politician who is only going to be on the job for a week or so.
It would be much more difficult for the Tories & the Lib dems to negotiate about liberals in cabinet if people had already started in post.
This period is allowing the Tories to plan, if they end up forming a minority government, they will have had a opportunity to make plans and set up some confidence and supply arrangements - cut their legislative program to the core etc.
As a labour supporter I completely agree with Clegg and Cameron, that Cameron should have first opportunity to try and put something together. Much as I would prefer a progressive alliance, I recognise it would be potentially less stable than a con-lib deal - and the basic fact that the tories got the biggest share of the seats and the vote. But I also think that pretending it is the only possible arrangement would be dishonest, and that it won't be stable unless they can carry their parties with them.
Actually, if they can't, treating the economic crisis as an emergency on the scale of a war and having a government of national unity led by Cameron might be the best bet. With tory-liberal control of the treasury and foreign affairs, and then mixture of folk taking different areas of responsibility within the cabinet.
Any coallition deal probably needs a strict time limit. 24mth would be favourite.
Posted by Ariel (# 58) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariel:
"The BNP managed to get over 5,000 votes this time round..."
I got that wrong. It was actually 514,819, which is about half a million. Now that's worrying.
Posted by Louise (# 30) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
That depends on whether you think PR is more democratic. Personally, I don't think it is.
What you 'personally think' does not correspond to the reality for millions of voters.
Devonian and I just looked at the figures - total vote and how many votes it took for each party to get a seat. So let's compare the situation for Liberal voters to that for Conservative voters. When you consider how votes translated into seats, effectively 2/3rds of Liberal voters - a whopping four and a half million people effectively had their votes flushed down the toilet by the distorting effect of the electoral system.
Look at it the other way round, if Tory voters were disadvantaged in the same way with their votes not translating into seats, that would be over seven million Conservative voters whose votes effectively didn't count. You'd have about 89 seats instead of 306.
By contrast if the Lib Dems had been advantaged by the electoral system in the same way as the Tories they would have approximately 191 seats not 57.
But the bottom line is you get distortions of democracy running to millions of voters being effectively disenfranchised. It requires a major 'I'm alright, Jack' contempt for the voters to justify that.
The rest of the UK has had better systems for years. It's time the English electorate were allowed something better than a system only good for the self-interest of the two big parties, who treated us to such a lovely display of their mutual corruption over MPs expenses. That sort of contempt for the electorate is what you get when they know they can never be voted out, thanks to a broken electoral system.
L.
Posted by Sleepwalker (# 15343) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
quote:
Originally posted by Sleepwalker:
I don't see what is so democractic about a system that gives significant power to insignificant parties.
Instead of one that gives significant power to marginal constituencies?
At least in marginals your vote counts and can influence the result. It's the safe seats which are the problem under the present system IMO. They disenfranchise so many people.
Posted by Sleepwalker (# 15343) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Louise:
The rest of the UK has had better systems for years. It's time the English electorate were allowed something better than a system only good for the self-interest of the two big parties, who treated us to such a lovely display of their mutual corruption over MPs expenses.
Firstly, it's up to us how we sort out our electoral system and secondly, I believe it was the three big(est) parties who treated everyone to a 'lovely display of their mutual corruption ...'
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Louise:
What you 'personally think' does not correspond to the reality for millions of voters.
I haven't seen any opinion polling on what people think about electoral 'reform', but I'd be interested to see how people's views change after the latest political horse-trading. The British aren't used to this sort of thing in Westminster politics and I wouldn't be surprised if support for PR goes down as people realise that this sort of thing is the norm under most PR systems.
quote:
But the bottom line is you get distortions of democracy running to millions of voters being effectively disenfranchised. It requires a major 'I'm alright, Jack' contempt for the voters to justify that.
Having lived for some time in a major northern city I was effectively disenfranchised as a Conservative voter. Labour and the Lib Dems were the only players in town. That wasn't nice, but I lumped it.
First Past the Post has its disadvantages, but it is the least worst system in my view. The major problem, as I see it, with PR is that it would mean the Liberals are never out of power in Westminster: Labour and the Conservatives will never form a majority and will always be looking to the Liberals to form a coalition.
That's great if you're a Lib Dem, particularly a senior one (you've got a cabinet job for life) but not if you're anyone else. I don't see how that is an improvement.
Also, it means that Labour and Conservative politicians will have to spend time wooing Liberals, time which will not be spent wooing voters. Again, I don't see this as a step forward.
quote:
The rest of the UK has had better systems for years. It's time the English electorate were allowed something better than a system only good for the self-interest of the two big parties,
The Scottish Parliament is a case in point. After the 2003 Scottish Parliamentary elections, a coalition was formed between Labour, who came first, and the Liberal Democrats, who came, er, fourth.
So long as the executive is drawn from the legislature, PR will give real political power to less popular parties. I don't see this as progress.
quote:
the two big parties, who treated us to such a lovely display of their mutual corruption over MPs expenses. That sort of contempt for the electorate is what you get when they know they can never be voted out, thanks to a broken electoral system.
As Sleepwalker said, all parties treated us to that. And the Lib Dems' biggest donor is currently doing some serious jail time.
Posted by Robert Armin (# 182) on
:
If the Liberals don't form an alliance with someone and get PR (of whatever form) now, should they just go home and disband?
Don't get me wrong - I don't want that to happen. For years I have thought a Liberal revival in poilitics would be very healthy for the nation. But, once again, a surge in interest during a campaign failed to materialise into anything much at the Election. Despite the "Clegg factor" their share of the vote hardly changed, and they actually lost seats. If they can't get anywhere under these circumstances, is there any point in them trying any more?
Posted by QLib (# 43) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Robert Armin:
Despite the "Clegg factor" their share of the vote hardly changed, and they actually lost seats. If they can't get anywhere under these circumstances, is there any point in them trying any more?
Yes, because they have got distinctive policies. The Clegg factor faded away IMHO because some people actually went and looked at LibDem policies and decided they didn't like them.
If/when we get PR, the Lib Dem vote might actually go down, because people no longer have to vote tactically, but they might still have more seats than they've got now.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by QLib:
quote:
Originally posted by Robert Armin:
Despite the "Clegg factor" their share of the vote hardly changed, and they actually lost seats. If they can't get anywhere under these circumstances, is there any point in them trying any more?
Yes, because they have got distinctive policies. The Clegg factor faded away IMHO because some people actually went and looked at LibDem policies and decided they didn't like them.
If/when we get PR, the Lib Dem vote might actually go down, because people no longer have to vote tactically, but they might still have more seats than they've got now.
The best indication we have as to the outcome of a PR based election is the European vote which is, of course, PR based. Whilst it is possible to argue that people are more inclined to vote for the lunatic fringes as a protest when it 'doesn't matter'. See the result below: enough to be deeply scary: a UKIP / Tory government anyone?
The URL reference in Wikipedia for the result
contains a bracket and this site objects to a bracket, so it's
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009
and then follow the link to the UK.
Posted by Nightlamp (# 266) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
it would mean the Liberals are never out of power in Westminster: Labour and the Conservatives will never form a majority and will always be looking to the Liberals to form a coalition.
If some models of PR were adopted then all the parties that currently exist will probably not exist in 10 years time or will be fractured. There would be probably be a BNP, a hard left socialist party, soft left (new labour) Green party, Social democrats, Liberals, One nation Tories, Thatcher tories, UKIP and several fringe parties like Islamic party and a christian party.
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
:
And even under PR in the Euro elections, the Conservative / UKIP block got a majority of the seats on about 44% of the votes.
Posted by Carys (# 78) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Louise:
quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
Indeed but then the Scots don't use a a pure PR system as you have just said. If the scottish system were adopted in the UK there might be one or two BNP people if that. I have no idea what the Lib Dems support I always assumed it was a pure PR list.
I really dislike the idea of a hated politician getting chuked out by the local people but to return like the living dead via a regional list.
They are for STV in multi-member constituencies which isn't a party list system. It's not a bad system either, however the system used in Scotland and Wales has been tested and works well, and I cant see why that couldn't be used in England as well. It would certainly tackle the problem of what happens to third parties, but without losing the good side of having truly local constituency MPs.
As for 'hated politicians' returning via the list, I haven't seen that but I have seen the opposite. When parties deselect popular politicians they can make a comeback via putting themselves as individuals on the regional lists - Margo Macdonald being a good example in my area.
L.
In Wales, since the 2006 Government of Wales Act people haven't been able to stand in a constituency and on a list, so unpopular people couldn't be voted out by the public and still get in on the list.
And on the TV coverage -- BBC Wales' coverage was fronted by a woman (Betsan Powys)
Carys
Posted by Ricardus (# 8757) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
The major problem, as I see it, with PR is that it would mean the Liberals are never out of power in Westminster: Labour and the Conservatives will never form a majority and will always be looking to the Liberals to form a coalition.
That's great if you're a Lib Dem, particularly a senior one (you've got a cabinet job for life) but not if you're anyone else. I don't see how that is an improvement.
But the Lib-Dems are only in the position of kingmakers because their views aren't too distinct from those of Labour and the Tories, such that collaboration with the Lib-Dems is acceptable to Tories.
In other words, a Tory-Lib-Dem coalition under a PR system would be a government which is at least acceptable to the majority. Compare FPTP, where it's possible to have a Government that's totally unacceptable to a majority of the electorate.
Posted by Ricardus (# 8757) on
:
[silly tangent] Incidentally, may I congratulate the BBC for this stunningly insightful piece of political analysis: quote:
BBC political correspondent Ross Hawkins says a colleague spotted a junior Lib Dem aide going into Parliament carrying pizza boxes. "It may be they are sustaining themselves through the night with pizzas", he adds.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
Stunning insight there, thanks to the unique way the BBC is funded by you, the viewer.
Posted by mousethief (# 953) on
:
I don't get it. What's so bad about pizza? In many jobs I've had if you're working late the boss or the corporation springs for pizza. Why should that be different for the BBC?
Posted by Wesley J (# 6075) on
:
I hear from the Radio 4 'Today' press review that a new phrase has been coined:
quote:
Con-Dem Nation
Quite.
Posted by Boogie (# 13538) on
:
My hope is that coalition government will bring more long term planning, instead of swings from one extreme to another.
...
Posted by Michael Astley (# 5638) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
The URL reference in Wikipedia for the result
contains a bracket and this site objects to a bracket, so it's
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009
and then follow the link to the UK.
In addition to reducing the number of characters, TinyURL's also doesn't include any objectionable characters in its URLs. Linking to Wikipedia on the Ship was a problem for me for a while before I realised this.
quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
I don't get it. What's so bad about pizza? In many jobs I've had if you're working late the boss or the corporation springs for pizza. Why should that be different for the BBC?
This is the country where there were concerns about the plans to broadcast the coronation of the Queen on television because of the possibility of men in public houses who might be watching with their hats on.
Eating pizza in Parliament may be one thing but one must not be seen to be doing so.
Posted by TraineeChristian (# 12972) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariel:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariel:
"The BNP managed to get over 5,000 votes this time round..."
I got that wrong. It was actually 514,819, which is about half a million. Now that's worrying.
I agree. If we had PR, how would that translate into seats?
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by TraineeChristian:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariel:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariel:
"The BNP managed to get over 5,000 votes this time round..."
I got that wrong. It was actually 514,819, which is about half a million. Now that's worrying.
I agree. If we had PR, how would that translate into seats?
This suggests they 2% of the votes so would 13 seats. On the other hand in the European Election under PR they got over 6% so that's about 40.
Posted by phil2357 (# 15431) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by TraineeChristian:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariel:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariel:
"The BNP managed to get over 5,000 votes this time round..."
I got that wrong. It was actually 514,819, which is about half a million. Now that's worrying.
I agree. If we had PR, how would that translate into seats?
I'm not so worried about the prospect of the BNP getting a seat. It would give the BNP a higher profile, but with a higher profile comes greater scrutiny. They would have to defend their policies, and if their policies are ridiculous then they will not come out of the debate well.
Posted by Carys (# 78) on
:
I know this was a few pages ago but I missed it.
quote:
Originally posted by Alwyn:
In July 2007, there were serious negotiations between the Conservatives, Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats about forming a coalition in the Welsh Assembly. But they could not agree on issues such as the introduction of proportional representation (for local elections). Apparently, the Welsh Conservatives and David Cameron were willing to consider this proposal but the Shadow Cabinet wouldn't accept it (source: Vernon Bagdanor, 'The New British Constitution').
This is a rather shortened version of events.
It all started after the elections in May 2007.
An Agreement (the All Wales Accord) was reached between Plaid, the Tories and the LibDems. But the LibDems had to agree it as a group, in their Welsh Exec and at a special conference of the Welsh Party. The Welsh Exec voted on putting it to the wider party and tied so the special conference wasn't called and so it fell through and Rhodri Morgan (Labour) became First Minister of a Minority government. Labour then seriously started talking to Plaid which led to signing of 'One Wales'. I'm not sure if discussions continued between the other three parties. I do recall the LibDems realising too late that a certain number of members could petition for the special conference to happen. But I went to Greece in late June and by the time I came back Plaid and Labour were in coalition and have been ever since with few problems. There was a bit of a kerfuffle before Christmas about the proposed Referendum on further powers but that got worked out in the end.
I'm glad to see this time that Clegg needs 75% of his MPs and the ok of the Federal Executive Committee but not a Special Conference as it speeds things up somewhat.
Carys
Posted by JonahMan (# 12126) on
:
I would argue that we already have, in effect, coalition governments all the time. All parties (even the tiny ones, never mind the major ones, contain a huge diversity of opinion. Having a party is simply a convenient way of saying OK, we can agree on a joint programme as we are stronger if we stick together (and are all more likely to get things we are individually interested in to be legislated for).
Having coalitions and deals between parties is simply an extension of this. In the long run, PR might simply mean that there are a larger number of parties to choose from who then form coalitions at a more observable level and people can vote for the party which most closely aligns to their views. I think this could well be healthier than a situation the Labour party has already made compromises and done plenty of horse trading to come up with a manifesto (and in half the time which isn't followed anyway) or a Tory party balancing One-Nation Tories with hardline Thatcherites.
The First Past the Post Party system is already about coalitions, they are just disguised.
Posted by Nightlamp (# 266) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by TraineeChristian:
I agree. If we had PR, how would that translate into seats?
As I said ealier on the thread it depends on the PR model I guess about 12 seats on a list system.
Based on the last election using a pure list PR system the results could be something like this.
BNP 12 seats (rounded down)
Green 6 seats
Conservative 234
Labour 188 seats
Liberal Democrats 149 seats
SNP 11 seats
DUP 4 seats
UKIP 20 seats
Sinn Fein 4 seats
Posted by lowlands_boy (# 12497) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
quote:
Originally posted by QLib:
quote:
Originally posted by Robert Armin:
Despite the "Clegg factor" their share of the vote hardly changed, and they actually lost seats. If they can't get anywhere under these circumstances, is there any point in them trying any more?
Yes, because they have got distinctive policies. The Clegg factor faded away IMHO because some people actually went and looked at LibDem policies and decided they didn't like them.
If/when we get PR, the Lib Dem vote might actually go down, because people no longer have to vote tactically, but they might still have more seats than they've got now.
The best indication we have as to the outcome of a PR based election is the European vote which is, of course, PR based. Whilst it is possible to argue that people are more inclined to vote for the lunatic fringes as a protest when it 'doesn't matter'. See the result below: enough to be deeply scary: a UKIP / Tory government anyone?
The URL reference in Wikipedia for the result
contains a bracket and this site objects to a bracket, so it's
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009
and then follow the link to the UK.
Archbishop Cranmer has a post including figures from the ConservativeHome website listing seats where the Conservative candidate lost by a narrow margin, and the number of UKIP votes would have given the Conservatives a majority had the UKIP votes gone to them.
That's just more tactical voting conjecture of course, but interesting from the UKIP/Conservative perspective
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
Archbishop Cranmer has a post including figures from the ConservativeHome website listing seats where the Conservative candidate lost by a narrow margin, and the number of UKIP votes would have given the Conservatives a majority had the UKIP votes gone to them.
That's just more tactical voting conjecture of course, but interesting from the UKIP/Conservative perspective [/QB]
That assumes, though, that had the Conservatives said and done the things to make those UKIP voters vote Conservatives that all the people who did vote Conservative last Thursday would still have done so.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
Archbishop Cranmer has a post including figures from the ConservativeHome website listing seats where the Conservative candidate lost by a narrow margin, and the number of UKIP votes would have given the Conservatives a majority had the UKIP votes gone to them.
That's just more tactical voting conjecture of course, but interesting from the UKIP/Conservative perspective
That assumes, though, that had the Conservatives said and done the things to make those UKIP voters vote Conservatives that all the people who did vote Conservative last Thursday would still have done so.
No - all it assumes is that UKIP doesn't exist and all their voters vote Tory given they have nowhere else to go.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
Archbishop Cranmer has a post including figures from the ConservativeHome website listing seats where the Conservative candidate lost by a narrow margin, and the number of UKIP votes would have given the Conservatives a majority had the UKIP votes gone to them.
That's just more tactical voting conjecture of course, but interesting from the UKIP/Conservative perspective
That assumes, though, that had the Conservatives said and done the things to make those UKIP voters vote Conservatives that all the people who did vote Conservative last Thursday would still have done so.
No - all it assumes is that UKIP doesn't exist and all their voters vote Tory given they have nowhere else to go.
I have had a look at the Wells result, the first one mentioned in the blog. The BNP also stood and, had their votes all gone to the Tory candidate, then they would again have been enough.
I can't imagine the Tories alone lost or failed to win seats as a result of "rogue" candidates. It's a feature of FPTP. Archbishop Cranmer should grow a pair.
Posted by lowlands_boy (# 12497) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
Archbishop Cranmer has a post including figures from the ConservativeHome website listing seats where the Conservative candidate lost by a narrow margin, and the number of UKIP votes would have given the Conservatives a majority had the UKIP votes gone to them.
That's just more tactical voting conjecture of course, but interesting from the UKIP/Conservative perspective
That assumes, though, that had the Conservatives said and done the things to make those UKIP voters vote Conservatives that all the people who did vote Conservative last Thursday would still have done so.
No - all it assumes is that UKIP doesn't exist and all their voters vote Tory given they have nowhere else to go.
I have had a look at the Wells result, the first one mentioned in the blog. The BNP also stood and, had their votes all gone to the Tory candidate, then they would again have been enough.
I can't imagine the Tories alone lost or failed to win seats as a result of "rogue" candidates. It's a feature of FPTP. Archbishop Cranmer should grow a pair.
I think the inference of the article is that some kind of deal was previously offered by UKIP not to field candidates against openly euro-sceptic MPs if the Conservatives guaranteed a referendum on Europe. I quite agree they weren't the only ones who profited/lost due to fringe candidates. He alludes to Ed Balls wafer thin result as well.
Posted by Gildas (# 525) on
:
Because, obviously what you want to do if you are leader of the Tory Party and attempting to render your party once more electable the obvious course of action is to plunge the party into a civil war over Europe. That worked so well in the 1990s for the Major administration.
Apropos J. S. Mill's remark about the Tories being the stupid party, AJP Taylor commented that the Tories were stupid but sensible and the radical alternative was generally clever but silly. People who think that Cameron should have fought the election on more right wing turf are both stupid and silly.
Changing the subject, you can forget about the progressive co-alition. The nats don't vote on English matters as a point of principle. Lib+Lab+Alliance+SDLP does not constitute a majority and could be voted down on all legislation that affected English matters. I guess they could change their minds about this but it wouldn't do much for the state of the West Lothian Question. Even if they did that gives them a majority of three across the board so all it takes is a couple of deaths on the government benches and a motion of no confidence looms.
All it takes is a couple of heart attacks or a falling out with Plaid Cymru and they're out. Hardly a basis for stable government.
Posted by mousethief (# 953) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Gildas:
Hardly a basis for stable government.
May I suggest strange women lying in ponds distributing swords?
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
quote:
Originally posted by Gildas:
Hardly a basis for stable government.
May I suggest strange women lying in ponds distributing swords?
A strange woman in a pond with a sword might be OK, otherwise there will be arguments about the number of women per pond, the location of ponds and the distribution of swords.
I'd rather sort out the budget deficit thank you.
Posted by lowlands_boy (# 12497) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
quote:
Originally posted by Gildas:
Hardly a basis for stable government.
May I suggest strange women lying in ponds distributing swords?
Certainly not. Supreme executive power derives from a mandate from the masses, not from some farcical aquatic ceremony.
Probably x-post with ten others.
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
:
A survey today by PoliticsHome suggests that voting reform is the fourth most important issue to the electorate right now. Respondents were given a list of twenty-five issues and asked to choose the five that were most important to them. The top ten were:
- The state of the economy in general (70%)
- Reducing public debt (56%)
- Immigration and race-relations (39%)
- Reforming the voting system (37%)
- Unemployment (29%)
- The level of taxation (29%)
- Political corruption and sleaze (20%)
- Education (20%)
- Health provision (19%)
- Defense and the armed services (17%)
To me it says that a substantial proportion of the population are bothered about how we vote, but not really enough to make it the headline issue, particularly while the economy is in such a dire state. But we knew that already, didn't we?
Posted by Carys (# 78) on
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Gordon Brown is resigning as Leader of the Labour party which is opening the way for a Lib/Lab pact. Suggests the Tory/LibDem talks are not going well. Clegg wants to talk to both formally.
Carys
Posted by Wesley J (# 6075) on
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Interesting.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
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Buggers are fiddling whilst Rome burns...
Posted by St. Punk the Pious (# 683) on
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Cameron tried to please everyone and avoid offending anyone . . . and look where that has gotten him. He loses too much of his base and is having trouble forming a government.
As much as I detest both Labour and the Lib Dems, a Lab-Lib government would probably result in Cameron being axed as Tory leader.
And that would be a good thing.
Posted by Angloid (# 159) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Buggers are fiddling whilst Rome burns...
I thought it was Athens.
What else can they do? To rush into a coalition without any sort of agreement is doomed to fail.
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
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I still think nobody in their right minds would want to be in government at the moment. A bunch of unpopular decisions to make and the strong likelihood of another election fairly soon. I wouldn't touch it with a bargepole!
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
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I'm surprised at how upset and fearful I feel right now, but I do fear for the economy, my business and my livelihood...
Posted by Wesley J (# 6075) on
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Exciting times for sure. Then there's still the volcano and the threat of more grounding, and the temporarily solved Greek financial crisis. Best to take it day by day, I guess.
Posted by Gildas (# 525) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
I'm surprised at how upset and fearful I feel right now, but I do fear for the economy, my business and my livelihood...
I thought that you were a Tory. You wanted less government, now you've got it.
Seriously, we have these people called civil servants who do the heavy lifting of government and these people called private citizens who do the heavy lifting on the economy. They can keep the show on the road whilst the politicians argue about who gets first dibs on the ministerial jag.
Interesting that the Labour Party are happy to put pressure on Cameron to play nice over voting reform. I suppose its not in their interest to have a second general election in the near future.
Posted by Gildas (# 525) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by St. Punk the Pious:
Cameron tried to please everyone and avoid offending anyone . . . and look where that has gotten him. He loses too much of his base and is having trouble forming a government.
As much as I detest both Labour and the Lib Dems, a Lab-Lib government would probably result in Cameron being axed as Tory leader.
And that would be a good thing.
Unlike Michael Howard, of course, who campaigned from the right and won spectacularly in 2005.
A clue: your base do not win you elections. Floating voters do.
Posted by Benny Diction 2 (# 14159) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
I'm surprised at how upset and fearful I feel right now, but I do fear for the economy, my business and my livelihood...
Oh for pity's sake.
Whoever forms the next government will have to make cuts and raise taxes.
Do you honestly think that Call me Dave will not raise taxes? VAT at 20% most likely. So you running a business aren't afraid of that? That won't affect you?
And how many of the customers of your business are public sector employees? With Dave and Boy George in power they won't have money to spend.
For the record I know plenty of people e.g. nurses and teachers who are also fearful.
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Louise:
quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
Gordon Brown and most of the Labour Party don't want PR either. They would go for AV which is not much more PR than FPTP.
I don't doubt that many Labour MPs want to stick with FPTP, but you are wrong to minimise the difference that AV makes. It is a complete game changer. You've seen the strength of the Labour vote in Scotland and yet under AV they have never been able to hold an outright majority in the Scottish parliament. Nor have the two major parties Labour/SNP been able to squeeze out Liberal and Tory voices in the ridiculous way that FPTP has allowed the Liberal vote to be devalued in England.
The Scottish Parliament doesn't use AV, but AMS.
The ERS have attempted to deconstruct the election under AV, AV+, STV. It slightly benefits the Labour Party (unfairly) as well as the Lib Dems (fairly).
PR sums.
Now the Tories have offered AV!
Posted by St. Punk the Pious (# 683) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Gildas:
quote:
Originally posted by St. Punk the Pious:
Cameron tried to please everyone and avoid offending anyone . . . and look where that has gotten him. He loses too much of his base and is having trouble forming a government.
As much as I detest both Labour and the Lib Dems, a Lab-Lib government would probably result in Cameron being axed as Tory leader.
And that would be a good thing.
Unlike Michael Howard, of course, who campaigned from the right and won spectacularly in 2005.
A clue: your base do not win you elections. Floating voters do.
But if you lose too much of your base, you lose.
And why should floating voters vote for Labour Lite?
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
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quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
Now the Tories have offered AV!
Not quite. They've offered a referendum on AV, whereas Labour's counter-offer is AV without a referendum.
I hope that the Lib Dems don't sell themselves for AV. I don't think that's a great system because it's only preferential rather than truly proportional.
But of course, Hague is right when he says that a Tory/Lib Dem agreement would be more stable (76 seat notional majority) than a Labour/Lib Dem/nationalists one (barely a majority). That's got to be a factor in their thinking, too.
Posted by Sleepwalker (# 15343) on
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I don't suppose anyone has noticed that Labour promised political reform 13 years ago and did not do it in the 13 years they were in power. Why should they do it now? They can promise away, can Labour, but not deliver.
I love this democracy business. The party who won the most votes and the most seats doesn't actually get to run the country because the third biggest party decides to play games. And then we will get Salmond on and whateverhisnameis for Wales, both saying they want their respective countries protected from all and every cut, and there will be all manner of instability and heaven knows what as bits and pieces of parties who got hardly any votes at all suddenly have the power to run the country.
And to think, this is what it would be like with PR in operation.
I'm sure the electorate will love it, especially the English, if they get to feel all the cuts on behalf of the Scots and Welsh as well.
Posted by The Exegesis Fairy (# 9588) on
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Well, 'the people' (meaning, you know, millions of individual people who voted for lots and lots of different people) have decided (insofar as they can) that a hung parliament is what they want.
Which is a bit like the 'in their wisdom, the American people have given us an opposition Congress' on the West Wing.
The thing is, Sleepwalker, it's all very well to complain about the Lib Dems and their measly 23% of the vote as deciders. But the simple fact is that Labour and the Conservatives aren't going to form a coalition government with each other.
Ok, they're very different parties, but they COULD do it. It's just that they won't.
Neither party has said, 'Hey, neither of us wants the economy to tank. Why don't we dream up a compromise? We'd be unstoppable! Serious majority, we could do anything!'
Labour are at least as different to the Conservatives as the Lib Dems are, and they don't have much chance of forming a stable coalition of half a dozen parties (the alternative to the Con-Dem Nation). And yet the thought has crossed nobody's mind (for reasons which I guess are fairly obvious).
And so it's entirely reasonable (to me) that the next biggest party should have a go at making an agreement, thus giving them power.
Posted by Clint Boggis (# 633) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Sleepwalker:
I don't suppose anyone has noticed that Labour promised political reform 13 years ago and did not do it in the 13 years they were in power. Why should they do it now? They can promise away, can Labour, but not deliver.
I love this democracy business. The party who won the most votes and the most seats doesn't actually get to run the country because the third biggest party decides to play games. And then we will get Salmond on and whateverhisnameis for Wales, both saying they want their respective countries protected from all and every cut, and there will be all manner of instability and heaven knows what as bits and pieces of parties who got hardly any votes at all suddenly have the power to run the country.
And to think, this is what it would be like with PR in operation.
I'm sure the electorate will love it, especially the English, if they get to feel all the cuts on behalf of the Scots and Welsh as well.
Sleepwalker, you're confusing FPTP which is how a candidate wins a seat, with how a Government is formed. The latter requires a majority in the Commons, or at least enough members agreeing not to vote against them.
Quite a lot of people seem to have trouble understanding this. Think of forming a Government like bidding in an auction. You put in a sealed bid as do several others. You're pleased to find you put in the highest bid but disappointed that it fails to meet the reserve price, so no sale. You might feel miffed to hear that two lower bidders later approached the seller and made a combined bid which meets the reserve. See? Democracy isn't broken after all!
.
[ 10. May 2010, 19:43: Message edited by: Clint Boggis ]
Posted by Beeswax Altar (# 11644) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
I'm surprised at how upset and fearful I feel right now, but I do fear for the economy, my business and my livelihood...
A lawyer fearing for his livelihood because the progressive party might stay in power?
Now that's a pond difference if ever I've heard one...
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Benny Diction 2:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
I'm surprised at how upset and fearful I feel right now, but I do fear for the economy, my business and my livelihood...
Oh for pity's sake.
Yeah, well, thanks a bundle for belittling how I, my family,my employees and their families are feeling right now...
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
Now the Tories have offered AV!
Not quite. They've offered a referendum on AV, whereas Labour's counter-offer is AV without a referendum.
Labour's manifesto promises a referendum on AV. Is four days a record for breaking a manifesto promise?
Posted by Nightlamp (# 266) on
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Well it looks like we are going to get a Lib-Lab pact which will be very unstable and I think will lead to a Tory landslide at the end of the year. The Labour party are now going to tear up yet another promised referendum (ah yes remember the referendum on the European constitution) and in a few weeks time we will discover how terrible the public finances are.
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
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quote:
Originally posted by St. Punk the Pious:
Cameron tried to please everyone and avoid offending anyone . . . and look where that has gotten him.
The other way round I suspect - he probaby knew he couldn't swing his party on Europe or electoral reform and so was intransigent on the very things the Libs would want to try to get him into office.
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
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quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
The ERS have attempted to deconstruct the election under AV, AV+, STV. It slightly benefits the Labour Party (unfairly) as well as the Lib Dems (fairly).
Fun but pointless, because people vote intelligently and you can't assume they'd vote the same way under a different system.
Also a lot depends on design of boundaries - and that's not a simple question either - there are real advantages in going for natural traditional boundaries
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
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IF (big if) the liberals went into coallition with Labour, I don't think the two would then go into coalliton with the other smaller parties - I think they would make a confidence and supply arrangement with the rest. Given the leg up a pr related system would give the smaller parties, they might agree to that for the sake of voting reform and a workable government - rather than regional cash.
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
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I'm more than a bit disappointed. On many policy grounds, I was quite happy about the idea of a Conservative-LibDem coalition, with a bit of Red Tory and a bit of Orange Book.
My only concern was that LibDems could secure a package of political reforms, including, but not limited to, a referendum on PR. There was some potential for common ground between the LibDems and the Conservatives on other matters of political reform, including localism, elected mayors and police chiefs, reform of the House of Lords, and the much-needed "Freedom Bill". Even a referendum on PR should not have been entirely impossible, as there could have been an understanding that the referendum would break collective responsibility, with the Conservatives and LibDems being free to take different sides in the referendum campaign).
Incidentally, I don't much like Labour's offer of AV, and I think that in the absence of a written Constitution legislating for electoral reform without a referendum sets a bad precedent - what is changed once can be changed back.
The idea of a weak, dispirited, worn-out Labour party leading a coalition with the LibDems at this point does not fill me with glee, especially as the numbers do not add up.
Strikes me as a missed opportunity.
Posted by Edward Green (# 46) on
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As a committed Christian Socialist I was just begining to see the benefits of Blonds Red Toryism. I was hoping for a government that might convince me. Not sure a Lib Lab pact would work now.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
Now the Tories have offered AV!
Not quite. They've offered a referendum on AV, whereas Labour's counter-offer is AV without a referendum.
Labour's manifesto promises a referendum on AV. Is four days a record for breaking a manifesto promise?
You sound surprised....
It's tempting to argue that the Tories are playing the long game - let the Lib/Lab take the hit for student tuition fee increases, the Strategic defence review and the budget next year... and watch it all fall into the Tories' hands even given AV
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by ken:
quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
The ERS have attempted to deconstruct the election under AV, AV+, STV. It slightly benefits the Labour Party (unfairly) as well as the Lib Dems (fairly).
Fun but pointless, because people vote intelligently and you can't assume they'd vote the same way under a different system.
Also a lot depends on design of boundaries - and that's not a simple question either - there are real advantages in going for natural traditional boundaries
But the assumptions are at least plausible for the mapping from FPTP to AV, using the same constituencies, which is the only change that is likely to happen in the short-term.
So it is quite important that it is likely that the Lib Dems would do slightly better under the alternative offered, or to put it another way, even if the Lib Dems lose a few votes by joining a government that makes public sector spending cuts it could keep the same number of MPs.
Posted by St. Punk the Pious (# 683) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
Well it looks like we are going to get a Lib-Lab pact which will be very unstable and I think will lead to a Tory landslide at the end of the year. The Labour party are now going to tear up yet another promised referendum (ah yes remember the referendum on the European constitution) and in a few weeks time we will discover how terrible the public finances are.
That and the demise of Cameron makes me want to root for a Lib-Lab government!
Posted by QLib (# 43) on
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I still don't think a Lib-Lab coalition is viable, though nothing would please me more than to be proved wrong. My hope now is that Clegg is looking for a Tory commitment to cross-party working on some issues, such as the care of the elderly, maybe even the economy (but that's unlikely).
Posted by Moth (# 2589) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sleepwalker:
I don't suppose anyone has noticed that Labour promised political reform 13 years ago and did not do it in the 13 years they were in power. Why should they do it now?
Probably because when you have them by the balls their hearts and minds will follow!
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
The major problem, as I see it, with PR is that it would mean the Liberals are never out of power in Westminster: Labour and the Conservatives will never form a majority and will always be looking to the Liberals to form a coalition.
That presupposes firstly that the Lib Dem vote will hold up and secondly that no other party will threaten them. Under PR, all bets are off.
I've given the example before of New Zealand under FPTP. There were two major parties - National (centre right) and Labour (centre left) and the smaller Social Credit (radical centrist).
When PR came in, smaller parties simply outflanked Social Credit, and it no longer exists. We still have the two major parties. We also have a host of smaller parties each with a distinctive political viewpoint: a nationalist party, a right-wing libertarian party, an environmentalist party, a Maori nationalist party, and old-fashioned family-values party and a left-wing party.
What strikes me as significant is that no centrist party exists. They all fit onto the left or the right of the spectrum.
It may be that the Lib Dems have never been forced onto one side or other of the spectrum because they have never been in government, leastways at Westminster.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
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David Cameron is now telling the Lib Dems to make their mind up. It doesn't bode well for a Con-LD coalition if DC want the Libdems to jump when he says jump. Heck, neither the Conservatives nor the LibDems do that for their own leader.
I'd suggest a Conservative minority government to get us out of the logjam. Once they have got a Queen's Speech and a Budget through (or not) we'll try to do something definitive or have another election.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
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If something similar happened in the UK, there would be a delicious irony in the Liberal Democrats being destroyed by the thing that they desired for so long.
Posted by Nightlamp (# 266) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
If something similar happened in the UK, there would be a delicious irony in the Liberal Democrats being destroyed by the thing that they desired for so long.
I have no doubt that PR would end the Liberals. They would find a home in a soft left labour or a new one nation Tory like party. I think that UKIP might do very well on a PR system since England is generally Euro sceptic but no one thinks UKIP will get in. On a PR system they would do.
Posted by Clint Boggis (# 633) on
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Why do some of you think that there are only two possible political beliefs? That seems to show very limited thinking, possibly as a result of the daft FPTP system which promotes a battle between the two top parties and relegates any alternative parties to irrelevancy, however much public support they have.
If or when the ridiculous FPTP finally goes, we can all think and vote how we want and not be forced to choose between the least worst of the main two choices offered. If this happens there could be a number of parties, each with its own priorities and they will have to negotiate to form a majority government.
The present negotiations scare the simple-minded and are talked down by supporters of the two biggest parties who don't like losing their accustomed automatic turn in power. But when we get used to this negotiation period following an election it won't seem scary, it'll be normal and everyone will know what to expect. Anything new seems a bit strange at first.
.
.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
If something similar happened in the UK, there would be a delicious irony in the Liberal Democrats being destroyed by the thing that they desired for so long.
I have no doubt that PR would end the Liberals. They would find a home in a soft left labour or a new one nation Tory like party. I think that UKIP might do very well on a PR system since England is generally Euro sceptic but no one thinks UKIP will get in. On a PR system they would do.
It might depend on the type of PR adopted. If single-member AV was used then the LibDems, used to coming second in many seats, could pick up quite a few second preference seats from (to be specific) Labour when the Conservatives come first and Conservatives where Labour come first. It would vary from place to place, and the Conservatives would have taken UKIP second preferences too. The effect of all that may be enough to overtake the candidate that would have won in a FPTP election. Victory would then go the "least unpopular" candidate, and the candidate lying third could well win a close race under AV!
In multi-member constituencies using STV the situation would be more complex: simply stating that "X would lose under system Y" doesn't account for potential changes to the parties themselves - even if such assertions had any truth in the first place.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Clint Boggis:
The present negotiations scare the simple-minded and are talked down by supporters of the two biggest parties who don't like losing their accustomed automatic turn in power. But when we get used to this negotiation period following an election it won't seem scary, it'll be normal and everyone will know what to expect. Anything new seems a bit strange at first.
What worries a lot of people is that the policies of the next government (and in some circumstances, the leader of the next government) isn't being discussed and debated in the public arena, where the electorate can see what is going on, but is being decided by a group of a dozen or so men in an office off Whitehall.
If only 'small-minded' people have reservations about this then we are a nation of bigots.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
What worries a lot of people is that the policies of the next government (and in some circumstances, the leader of the next government) isn't being discussed and debated in the public arena, where the electorate can see what is going on, but is being decided by a group of a dozen or so men in an office off Whitehall.
As opposed to a small group of people gathered around the cabinet table in no 10, or merely by the PM...
The reality of politics is that it is ALWAYS about coalition building - except that usually this process occurs, in private, within a single party. Sometimes our masters use the media to enhance the power of their voices in the run up to a cabinet decision. All we are seeing here is a slightly more visible exercise in the same process, with the same degree of confidentiality to enable decisions to be made and compromises agreed...
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by RadicalWhig:
I'm more than a bit disappointed. On many policy grounds, I was quite happy about the idea of a Conservative-LibDem coalition, with a bit of Red Tory and a bit of Orange Book.
Red Toryism was a nice idea. Given that the Conservative party's instincts are still pro-large business at every opportunity, I can't think that it was ever going to make any headway in the Conservative party as presently constituted. It would require a head-on assault on Thatcherite ideas in the Conservative party, and Cameron neither could nor would attempt that. (Unless the Labour party achieves decisive electoral success after shifting to the left there'd be no point.)
At the moment, Red Toryism is merely a fig-leaf for dropping public services while Cameron closes his eyes and makes a wish that the equally cash-short private sector will charitably pick them up.
[ 11. May 2010, 11:53: Message edited by: Dafyd ]
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
Rather more politicking is going on in public than is usual. Most of the statements by party leaders appear designed to appease their own members rather than court support from other parties.
As an example, only a fool would suppose that the Conservatives or Labour have any intention of delivering PR in any form. It is, in political terms a "Yes, of course I'll still love you in the morning" to the delectable Ms Lib Dem. Even if there is a referendum the proposed method would be so complex that Ms Dem wouldn't be in favour of it. The cabinet would have drafted a Representation of the People (Amendment) Bill that would have less chance of becoming law than I have of becoming a film star.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
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In a system in which all the parties can be laid out along a single political spectrum, most forms of proportional representation are pretty much bound to pick a government near the centre of the political spectrum.
If you think that a democratic government should be actively obnoxious to as few of the people as possible, then that's a plus.
A democratic system in which tactical voting is undesirable is simply impossible.
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
Red Toryism was a nice idea. [QUOTE]
Yes.
[QUOTE]Given that the Conservative party's instincts are still pro-large business at every opportunity, I can't think that it was ever going to make any headway in the Conservative party as presently constituted.
Sadly true.
quote:
At the moment, Red Toryism is merely a fig-leaf for dropping public services while Cameron closes his eyes and makes a wish that the equally cash-short private sector will charitably pick them up.
Indeed. I never really trusted Philip Blond's flirtation with the Tories anyway.
Still, I had vaguely hoped the LibDems might have nudged them in a good direction, though. In practical policy terms, there is quite a lot of common ground between Red Tory ideas and Orange Book ideas, even if their ideological foundations are quite different.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
I have just read that the Conservative Way Forward group has rejected the idea of a LibDem/Tory coalition.
See this for a suitably chilling shape of things to come.
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
The reality of politics is that it is ALWAYS about coalition building - except that usually this process occurs, in private, within a single party. ... All we are seeing here is a slightly more visible exercise in the same process ...
Good point.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
Well, the FTSE's down by over 2% but part of that is a revaluation after yesterday's big gain. Sterling marginally down against the dollar but up against the Euro. So my fears of yesterday evening have not really materialised - yet. Maybe tomorrow's going to be the nasty day...
Meanwhile, Cons are talking again to the Lib Dems...
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
In a system in which all the parties can be laid out along a single political spectrum
Such a system is not what we have in the UK, though. We have one centre-right party and two centre-left ones.
If the Lib Dem-Labour stitch-up finally happens, it will prove once and for all that under any system that fails to give one party a majority of seats, a vote for Lib Dem is no more or less than a vote for Labour. It follows that in any system that is designed to dramatically reduce the number of overall majorities, the LibLab Party will be virtually unimpeachable. Far from making each vote more relevant, it would ensure that the makeup of the resulting government is known before any votes are even cast. All the electorate would be able to decide would be the exact shade of orange they'd use as a backdrop.
It is only to be hoped that once the electorate sees this truth, a lot of yellow (and even, dare I hope, red) votes will turn blue.
Posted by New Yorker (# 9898) on
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An amusing view of the aftermath of the UK election by Mark Steyn, a form Canadian, now an American citizen can be found here.
(At least I found it amusing!)
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
If the Lib Dem-Labour stitch-up finally happens, it will prove once and for all that under any system that fails to give one party a majority of seats, a vote for Lib Dem is no more or less than a vote for Labour. It follows that in any system that is designed to dramatically reduce the number of overall majorities, the LibLab Party will be virtually unimpeachable. Far from making each vote more relevant, it would ensure that the makeup of the resulting government is known before any votes are even cast. All the electorate would be able to decide would be the exact shade of orange they'd use as a backdrop.
I'm not sure it's as straightforward as that. There are a lot on the left-hand side of British politics who feel that their views are not well represented by either the Lib Dems or Labour. I think that a significant proportion of them would seriously consider voting for smaller parties if there was a reasonable chance of them getting elected. I also suspect that a number of right-wing Tories would go towards UKIP or the Christian Party, so slightly fragmenting the right.
If this happens, coalitions must be the order of the day, and it will come down to whether the right-leaning parties are stronger than the left-leaning ones. I'm not sure it's obvious which grouping would be stronger.
And on a more general point, if 55-60% of the electorate always want a centre-left government of one flavour or another, why shouldn't they have it?
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
And on a more general point, if 55-60% of the electorate always want a centre-left government of one flavour or another, why shouldn't they have it?
You mean apart from the fact that the other 40-45% of us might as well not bother voting, since our voices will never be heard in government?
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
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I'm afraid that's democracy. If you don't like it, go out and try to win the political argument.
(And it's not like you don't have most of the sensationalist media on your side to help you do that already.)
Posted by Dinghy Sailor (# 8507) on
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If you don't mind disenfranchising nearly half the electorate, we may as well leave the electoral system as it is because there's nothing wrong with it. It would just be different people who get disenfranchised.
Posted by kentishmaid (# 4767) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
If the Lib Dem-Labour stitch-up finally happens, it will prove once and for all that under any system that fails to give one party a majority of seats, a vote for Lib Dem is no more or less than a vote for Labour.
By that logic, should a LibCon coallition emerge, it would prove that a Lib Dem vote was a vote for the Tories. I'm not sure that either statement is true, since things are more nuanced than that. A number of people voted LibDem in an attempt to keep the Tories out (either in their individual constituency or nationally) but, equally, there was a proportion who were voting Lib Dem in order to boot out Labour. A vote for a LibDem candidate is precisely that: every person who casts it has their own set of intentions.
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
You mean apart from the fact that the other 40-45% of us might as well not bother voting, since our voices will never be heard in government?
Indeed - a system that made right-wing people feel that your votes weren't worthwhile would be unfair.
On the other hand, doesn't the 'first past the post' system make some people feel that their votes aren't worthwhile? From 1979 - 1997, I wonder how many left-wing people in Scotland or Wales, or in safe seats (held by any party) in England felt that 'they may as well not bother voting' under FPTP. The information here suggests that a lot of seats are 'safe' for incumbents under our current system.
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
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Just to provide a bit more evidence: the Electoral Reform Society has argued that 382 (of 650) seats in the Westminster Parliament are 'super safe' because they "will not change hands even with a landslide on any conceivable scale". From the total voting population of 45,420,808, 26,665,604 voters live in safe seats - that's 59% of the electorate (same source).
[ 11. May 2010, 15:05: Message edited by: Alwyn ]
Posted by Mr Clingford (# 7961) on
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Well, the BBC are suggesting that a LibCon it is.
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
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William Hill's stopped taking bets, Labour have said that they're done with negotiations and people have been seen packing bags into cars behind Number 10.
We might just have a new government.
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Such a system is not what we have in the UK, though. We have one centre-right party and two centre-left ones.
But they are very different types of "left", and I don't think they are necessarily all that compatible.
Labour left is bureaucratic, statist, centralising, and rooted in a mass industrialist view of society. It's ideological base comes from the socialist tradition, even if most of them are not full-blown socialists today. Its stereotypical voter might not wear a cloth cap and have a whippet any more, but is still likely to be a C2/D/E, or a low-ish paid public sector professional who works with C2/D/E clients.
LibDem left is less collectivist, more localist, and more comfortable with rural, suburban, post-industrial society. Its ideological base is somewhere between John Stuart Mill and Tom Paine. Its stereotypical typical voter is more likely to be on the A/B/C1 scale than the C2/D/E scale, rides a bike and wears sandals.
I can see how these two parties can work together in certain policy areas, but I cannot imagine them forming a "united left" because the social, cultural and ideological gap is just too wide.
Posted by Sleepwalker (# 15343) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
I have just read that the Conservative Way Forward group has rejected the idea of a LibDem/Tory coalition.
See this for a suitably chilling shape of things to come.
And of course the hardliners of the LibDem party aren't saying just the same kinds of things about their leadership negotiating with the Tories?
Posted by New Yorker (# 9898) on
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Sorry to keep bugging you with questions from an American, but what is a "C2/D/E" and what is an "A/B/C1?"
Posted by Thurible (# 3206) on
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Sleepwalker, I imagine it was the "spirit of 1979" banner. It's certainly what's going to give me nightmares tonight.
Thurible
[ 11. May 2010, 15:29: Message edited by: Thurible ]
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
Sorry to keep bugging you with questions from an American, but what is a "C2/D/E" and what is an "A/B/C1?"
They're references to social classes (how very British of us). Does this help?
Posted by Dinghy Sailor (# 8507) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
Sorry to keep bugging you with questions from an American, but what is a "C2/D/E" and what is an "A/B/C1?"
They're categories of social class. See here for explanations.
Posted by New Yorker (# 9898) on
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Yes, very helpful. Thanks. At least you Brits admit you have social class, we lie to ourselves that we don't have them!
Posted by Carys (# 78) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
William Hill's stopped taking bets, Labour have said that they're done with negotiations and people have been seen packing bags into cars behind Number 10.
We might just have a new government.
Apparently those bags belonged to a policeman!
Carys
Posted by Thurible (# 3206) on
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And the BBC live election broadcast is now showing us the weather, FFS!
Thurible
Posted by Spike (# 36) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Such a system is not what we have in the UK, though. We have one centre-right party and two centre-left ones.
It's not as simple as that. The LibDems seem to attract those from both sides of the divide. On my local council, quite a few of the LibDem councillors are former Conservatives who have crossed the floor and in the event of a hung council, are more likely to team up with the Conservatives than with Labour, as has indeed happened in the past.
Clegg is in an impossible position. Whichever way le leans on this one, he's going to upset about half of his party members.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sleepwalker:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
I have just read that the Conservative Way Forward group has rejected the idea of a LibDem/Tory coalition.
See this for a suitably chilling shape of things to come.
And of course the hardliners of the LibDem party aren't saying just the same kinds of things about their leadership negotiating with the Tories?
The hardliners of the LibDem party have a lot to learn. They can be devious (watch them at local level!) but they cause few nightmares, probably not since the days of Jeremy Thorpe.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
See this for a suitably chilling shape of things to come.
In what way?
Posted by mousethief (# 953) on
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If the LibDems go with the Tories, are all the LibDems beholden to vote in a block, or will the Tory-hating lefties in the LD be able to vote against Tory/LD legislation?
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
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quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
If the LibDems go with the Tories, are all the LibDems beholden to vote in a block, or will the Tory-hating lefties in the LD be able to vote against Tory/LD legislation?
The backbench (non-government ministers) in the Lib Dem parliamentary ranks can vote either way on every vote. As time goes on, the rebellion is likely to grow, until it results in the next General Election. Another reason to give as many Lib Dem MPs junior jobs in the government as possible. They have to resign their ministerial posts if they rebel against the whips.
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
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The party whip is strong in the House of Commons, so MPs are supposed to tow the Party line.
Of course, it makes a big difference whether or not a formal coalition is set up, or just a confidence and supply agreement. If the latter, then it is quite legitimate for the Lib Dems as a whole to go against the (minority) Tory government on any non-confidence vote. If it is a formal coalition, then they would expect to vote with the government all the time.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
See this for a suitably chilling shape of things to come.
In what way?
I think you know exactly what I mean!
In Downing Street there is talk of resignation but elsewhere Austin Mitchell MP and junior minister David Lammy have spoken out against the Labour leadership's failure to consult their Labour MP's. Worse still Lord Mandelson has been seen smiling. That's as frightening as my earlier link to the Conservative Way Forward group.
I reckon another election next year, following a very hard time for Mr Cameron with economic woes, a war he can't win, no majority and having to give cabinet posts not merely to Lib Dems but also to Conservatives on the right, who would not have been in the cabinet had there been a clear majority.
It'll be no fun for We British either.
Posted by New Yorker (# 9898) on
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What is all this about fixed term parliaments? Is this the end of PMs calling elections when they think they can best win? Does this mean the end of no confidence votes? Would the PM continue to serve for the fixed term even if he/she lost the confidence of the House?
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
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quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
If the LibDems go with the Tories, are all the LibDems beholden to vote in a block, or will the Tory-hating lefties in the LD be able to vote against Tory/LD legislation?
Sort of..
People are allowed to vote as they please.
However the parties are allowed to treat traitors as they please.
Obedience organised by the Whips, people who bully the voters into line. A code system (like 'red' alerts) exists.
A vote against a One Line whip, means 'not in my name'.
A vote or abstention against a Three Line whip means they'll be newly independent, and out of any committees. If there are enough who will risk that then the coalition won't be viable.
In practice then if the Lib Dem's expect to get Tory votes for their essential policies then they won't be able to have their members getting away with voting against Tory demands (and likewise for the Tories).
Posted by Clint Boggis (# 633) on
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I think it just means the PM can't choose a time to suit themselves. Confidence votes would still trigger an election, I assume.
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
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quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
What is all this about fixed term parliaments? Is this the end of PMs calling elections when they think they can best win? Does this mean the end of no confidence votes? Would the PM continue to serve for the fixed term even if he/she lost the confidence of the House?
First of all, introducing fixed term Parliaments would not mean the end of no-confidence votes. It does not mean that the PM serves for a fixed term, but that the House of Commons would serve for a fixed term. The House of Commons would be able to pass a vote of no-confidence in the Government (in practice, this would be rare, unless a coalition split or the Government lost the confidence of its own backbenchers). The result of a no-confidence vote would be the formation of a new Government without a general election.
Secondly, "fixed term" does not mean fixed term. Norway is the only European parliamentary democracy to have absolutely fixed terms. Usually, "fixed terms" means "the Prime Minister cannot dissolve Parliament at will". There might be restrictions requiring a two-thirds majority of Parliament to consent to an early dissolution (as in Scotland), or a rule allowing an early dissolution only in certain circumstances, such as if a new PM cannot be chosen within a reasonable time (as in Germany).
An example of how this works in practice can been seen from the case of Ireland in 1994. [Ireland does not have fixed terms, but the President (largely a symbolic figurehead) does have the right to refuse a dissolution to a government which has lost the confidence of Parliament]. When Labour withdrew support from Reynold's government the President, Mary Robinson, indicated that she would use her power to refuse a dissolution if asked. Reynolds therefore resigned without asking for a dissolution, and the Dail appointed John Bruton as Prime Minister without an intervening general election.
A more clear-cut example occurred in Germany in 1982, when the withdrawal of the FDP from the Social Democrat -led coalition, owing to a disagreement over economic policy, led to the removal of Chancellor Helmut Schmidt (Social Democrat) and the appointment of Helmut Kohl (Christian Democrat).
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Clint Boggis:
I think it just means the PM can't choose a time to suit themselves. Confidence votes would still trigger an election, I assume.
A no-confidence vote would not necessarily trigger an election. It would probably do so only if a new PM cannot be appointed within a reasonable time.
Posted by New Yorker (# 9898) on
:
So what will Brown say to the Queen? Something like:
PM: "Sorry to interrupt [insert name of television show on at the moment], but it seems that I have lost an election so I must resign."
To which she'll say something like:
HM: "Yes, We thought you might be dropping in. So that's that then. Thank you. No need to linger. Good night."
Or is there a more formal way of doing it?
Posted by Sober Preacher's Kid (# 12699) on
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That's pretty much it. Though Brown would say "I recommend that Your Majesty summon David Cameron." HM always acts on the advice of her ministers, even in this case. It's a formality and everyone knows the script, but things have to be done formally.
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
Or is there a more formal way of doing it?
I'm sure Vernon Bogdanor will be along in a minute to explain all the fine details. He is, after all, the "constitutional expert".
Posted by Gildas (# 525) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
If the LibDems go with the Tories, are all the LibDems beholden to vote in a block, or will the Tory-hating lefties in the LD be able to vote against Tory/LD legislation?
The backbench (non-government ministers) in the Lib Dem parliamentary ranks can vote either way on every vote. As time goes on, the rebellion is likely to grow, until it results in the next General Election. Another reason to give as many Lib Dem MPs junior jobs in the government as possible. They have to resign their ministerial posts if they rebel against the whips.
I doubt, however, if Clegg would offer to formally coalesce with the Conservatives if he thought that his backbenchers would routinely vote against the government.
Meanwhile Labour have pulled out of negotiations with the Lib Dems. This is hardly surprising as a majority of three would mean that the most piffling back bench revolt could see off an electoral reform bill. The good news is that this appears to have led to the extortion of a referendum on AV from Cameron. As the next general election could be crushing for Labour this is probably good news for them. And it's good news for the Lib Dems, of course.
The last person to get that sort of impact out of a resignation was Sir Geoffrey Howe.
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alwyn:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
The reality of politics is that it is ALWAYS about coalition building - except that usually this process occurs, in private, within a single party. ... All we are seeing here is a slightly more visible exercise in the same process ...
Good point.
That's one of the most sensible thing anyone's said yet on this thread.
And its another reason why minority governments and/pr electoral reform are good ideas - they keep more of the political process out in the open
Posted by New Yorker (# 9898) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sober Preacher's Kid:
That's pretty much it. Though Brown would say "I recommend that Your Majesty summon David Cameron." HM always acts on the advice of her ministers, even in this case. It's a formality and everyone knows the script, but things have to be done formally.
Obviously I was being a bit tongue-in-cheek for what is a very serious matter. I did not know that the outgoing PM would advise the Queen to summon the next PM. Interesting.
So Brown will probably take less than five minutes but the Queen will probably spend some time with Cameron and his wife as a curtesy even though it is late in the evening?
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
So my fears of yesterday evening have not really materialised - yet. Maybe tomorrow's going to be the nasty day...
Why should it? There is a government in place, and they intend to raise taxes and cut public spending, just like the banks told them to.
There might be another government tomorrow, or next week, or next month - but every likely government is going to raise taxes and cut public spending just like the banks tell them to.
They might raise put the cuts in different places - Tories likely to cut inheritance taxes for their rich friends and realations and put up VAT which hits the rest of us worse, Liberals intend to cut property taxes (such as the Council Tax) for their middle-aged middle-class suburban supporters who love to see rising house prices, Labour put up income taxes (under the not-very-hard-to-see-through guise of National Insurance, which is just another category of Income Tax these days) which spreads the load more widely but hits the slightly better off worse than the slightly worse off - but they will all out up taxes.
This isn't Greece. The politicians know who pulls the strings.
Posted by Benny Diction 2 (# 14159) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
quote:
Originally posted by Benny Diction 2:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
I'm surprised at how upset and fearful I feel right now, but I do fear for the economy, my business and my livelihood...
Oh for pity's sake.
Yeah, well, thanks a bundle for belittling how I, my family,my employees and their families are feeling right now...
I'm not belittling how you feel. Just remember that there are potentially tens of thousands of public servants who are equally nervous. Funnily enough I'm married to one - a senior nurse of 30 years standing who is probably not regarded as "front line" but child welfare never is "front line" for Tories is it?
I'm certainly afraid that a Tory / LibDem government will push the country back into recession. then we're all screwed - even business owning Tory lovers.
Posted by Sober Preacher's Kid (# 12699) on
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There may be a separation of an hour or two so that Brown and Cameron aren't at the Palace at the same time, and Buck House won't call Cameron until Brown is through with the Queen, even though Cameron is waiting by the phone (or cell phone, as the case may be).
Them HM would summon Cameron and Mrs. Cameron to wait upon her, though as I understand it HM insists on formality and protocol dictates that HM is the one deferred to. So tea, a short discussion, probably an explanation in this case of how he intends to get a working majority, though the Queen has only had to deal with two other minority parliaments before personally in the UK.
I'm quite sure that the Court staff are throughly briefed and Canadian precedents are front and centre, as we've had 11 minorities in the last 100 years and we use exactly the same system the British do.
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
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So much for "Vote Clegg, get Brown".
Posted by Wesley J (# 6075) on
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Posted by New Yorker (# 9898) on
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I wonder if the Queen liked Mr. Brown? I wonder if she likes Mr. Cameron? I know it doesn't matter, but still, interesting.
Posted by Wesley J (# 6075) on
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At least one Queen liked Mr Brown.
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
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Gordon's resigned and gone to the palace.
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
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Cross-posted with the world.
Posted by Ariel (# 58) on
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Gordon has now left the Palace.
It'll probably be a while before we get the next developments, now that the various sides have to convene and talk it out.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
If something similar happened in the UK, there would be a delicious irony in the Liberal Democrats being destroyed by the thing that they desired for so long.
I have no doubt that PR would end the Liberals. They would find a home in a soft left labour or a new one nation Tory like party. I think that UKIP might do very well on a PR system since England is generally Euro sceptic but no one thinks UKIP will get in. On a PR system they would do.
I wouldn't be too sure of that. What you have described is essentially what happened to the Liberals under FPTP in the early-to-mid twentieth century. The nature of PR is that smaller parties are less likely to get absorbed by larger ones.
What, I think, destroyed Social Credit is that they let themselves get outflanked on the right and left by other smaller parties with a more obvious vision to 'sell'. In Britain, the most obvious threat to the Lib Dems are the Greens, and they might also be at risk if a right-wing libertarian party were to come into existance.
If Britain were to adopt PR, and its politics follow in a similar pattern to New Zealand's, I expect that parties large and small would marshal themselves into two blocs ie: (right) Tories, UKIP, BNP (left) Labour, Green, SNP, PC. In short, one major party on each side of the spectrum plus smaller parties each with a distinctive, almost single-issue political viewpoint: anti-Europe and racism on the right, respectively, and environmentalism and nationalism respectively on the left.
I'm really not sure where that leaves the Lib Dems. As you say, they might have to jump left or right. Given the size of their vote, depth of organisation and long history of representation, they could well still become as popular a party as Conservative or Labour, but I doubt it.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
I wonder if the Queen liked Mr. Brown? I wonder if she likes Mr. Cameron? I know it doesn't matter, but still, interesting.
It has been rumoured that the Queen has got on better with Labour prime ministers than with Conservative prime ministers. I don't know whether there is any truth in that.
A programme about the monarchy showed an audience between the Queen and Mr Brown (when he was Chancellor of the Exchequer) and he behaved, in my opinion, disgracefully, so I don't know how their relations were. I suspect she got along well with Harold Macmillan and Sir Alec Douglas-Home.
Posted by St. Punk the Pious (# 683) on
:
That was a rather quick audience, was it not? Not much chit-chat.
Did Gordon act boorishly? Did The Queen want to get back to the telly?
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
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Would you want to spend more time than absolutely necessary with Gordon Brown?
Posted by Ariel (# 58) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
It has been rumoured that the Queen has got on better with Labour prime ministers than with Conservative prime ministers. I don't know whether there is any truth in that.
I don't think she cared much for Blair.
Posted by Organ Builder (# 12478) on
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Wasn't her antipathy for Margaret Thatcher widely known?
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Benny Diction 2:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
quote:
Originally posted by Benny Diction 2:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
I'm surprised at how upset and fearful I feel right now, but I do fear for the economy, my business and my livelihood...
Oh for pity's sake.
Yeah, well, thanks a bundle for belittling how I, my family,my employees and their families are feeling right now...
I'm not belittling how you feel. Just remember that there are potentially tens of thousands of public servants who are equally nervous. Funnily enough I'm married to one - a senior nurse of 30 years standing who is probably not regarded as "front line" but child welfare never is "front line" for Tories is it?
I'm certainly afraid that a Tory / LibDem government will push the country back into recession. then we're all screwed - even business owning Tory lovers.
I wasn't particularly making a party-political point; it was my concern that, until this evening, we essentially had no government, with all the potentially dire consequences for the markets and economy. It seemed to me - this time last night - that prospects of a Con-Lib deal were fading and we would have to start the clock again with Lib-Lab negotiations which would drag on for several more days with sterling and the FTSE in freefall in the meantime. Though not exactly dancing in the streets, I'd have felt better if, last night, we'd had a Lib-Lab coalition, but that wasn't going to happen in five minutes. That's what I was upset about.
Posted by New Yorker (# 9898) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
... A programme about the monarchy showed an audience between the Queen and Mr Brown (when he was Chancellor of the Exchequer) and he behaved, in my opinion, disgracefully, so I don't know how their relations were. ...
What did he do that was disgraceful?
As for the final audience I thought Brown would be in and out in less than five minutes. The fact that HM gave him 15 seems generous to me. (Nothing personal against Brown. I'd think any outgoing PM would get a short audience.)
The Telegraph reported that the guards saluted him on his way out of the palace. That surely is not correct?
Posted by New Yorker (# 9898) on
:
Wow. The Palace got the photos out quickly:
Posted by Sober Preacher's Kid (# 12699) on
:
The reason Brown was saluted even after he resigned was that he is and will remain a Privy Councillor, and therefore still has status under the Order of Precedence.
Cameron isn't a Privy Councillor yet and won't be until he is sworn in and forms a Ministry. Then of course he'll be First Lord of the Treasury and a Privy Councillor.
One remains a Privy Councillor for life.
Posted by iGeek (# 777) on
:
Wow. Done and dusted in the space of hours. Now *that's* transition for ya.
The photos look like a family snaps with one's granny
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Sober Preacher's Kid:
Cameron isn't a Privy Councillor yet and won't be until he is sworn in and forms a Ministry. Then of course he'll be First Lord of the Treasury and a Privy Councillor.
The Leader of the Opposition is a Privy Councillor and - I think - paid a Cabinet Minister's salary.
Does the same not happen in the Canadian Privy Council?
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
The Leader of the Opposition is a Privy Councillor and - I think - paid a Cabinet Minister's salary.
Does the same not happen in the Canadian Privy Council?
They pay their public servants in moose meat over here.
Posted by Mr. Spouse (# 3353) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alwyn:
doesn't the 'first past the post' system make some people feel that their votes aren't worthwhile? From 1979 - 1997, I wonder how many left-wing people in Scotland or Wales, or in safe seats (held by any party) in England felt that 'they may as well not bother voting' under FPTP.
{Holds up hand}
That was the case in every election I voted in when I lived in Salford. Since moving further north I am now in a relatively marginal seat, so my vote does count, so long as it's for one of the two main parties. "Vote orange or green, get blue" is the general rule of thumb and exactly what happened last week.
Posted by Wesley J (# 6075) on
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Her Maj staring angrily at Cammy.
Posted by Ariel (# 58) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Wesley J:
Her Maj staring angrily at Cammy.
Nah. That's a look of great delight mingled with relief.
(A sentiment shared by a proportion of the nation.)
Posted by Mr. Spouse (# 3353) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Think²:
Gordon's resigned and gone to the palace.
I noticed he waited until 7:16 before coming out of No.10. Sarah was probably listening to The Archers on Radio 4.
Posted by Firenze (# 619) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Wesley J:
Her Maj staring angrily at Cammy.
Or possibly: 'Which one are you? Mr Eden or Mr Wilson? At least you're not that dreadful woman.'
Posted by lowlands_boy (# 12497) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Sober Preacher's Kid:
Cameron isn't a Privy Councillor yet and won't be until he is sworn in and forms a Ministry. Then of course he'll be First Lord of the Treasury and a Privy Councillor.
The Leader of the Opposition is a Privy Councillor and - I think - paid a Cabinet Minister's salary.
Nicholas Witchell was reading the actual press releases live from the quad at Buckingham Palace, and the confirmation of Cameron's appointment referred to him as "The Right Honourable David Cameron". I'm pretty sure Right Hon. is reserved for Privvy Councillors.
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on
:
I warn you not to be ordinary
I warn you not to be young
I warn you not to fall ill
I warn you not to get old.
Posted by FreeJack (# 10612) on
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David Cameron was already a member of the Privy Council, as are some other members of the Conservative 'Shadow' Cabinet and the Leader and 'Shadow' Chancellor of the Lib Dems. The Leader of Opposition is by convention always a Privy Councillor.
Any proposed members of the Cabinet, and some senior proposed Ministers of State, will be appointed to the Privy Council at a meeting held for the purpose shortly.
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
We should get details of the deal by midnight.
But the Beeb are reporting probably Clegg as deputy PM and 4 other Lib Dem ministers, inheritance tax threshold rise deferred, increase in the personal tax allowance, still 6 billion cuts this year, referendum on voting reform and a fixed term parliament.
Posted by mousethief (# 953) on
:
But will the LibDem party hold? Will any LibDem MP's leave LibDem for Labour or someone else?
Posted by Jigsaw (# 11433) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
I warn you not to be ordinary
I warn you not to be young
I warn you not to fall ill
I warn you not to get old.
Good call. Very appropriate to remember that right now. It didn't work then- will it work now?
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
Initially, I don't think people will break ranks. the Tories seems to have given the Lib Dems a *very* good deal. Nick Clegg is confirmed as deputy PM by the palace - and there will be another 4 lib dem cabinet ministers. [It has been said on Newsnight that David Law (lib dem) has got education.]
The basic deal summary is this:
quote:
The Lib Dems have agreed to drop plans for a "mansion tax", while the Conservatives have ditched their pledge to raise the inheritance tax threshold to £1m. The new administration will scrap Labour's planned rise in National Insurance but some of the benefits will go to reducing income tax thresholds for lower earners.
Plus five year fixed term parliaments have been confirmed. Has been agreed there will be a referendum on any further transfer of power to Europe.
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
Just heard, Lib Dems are getting 20 seats in government ! 5 in cabinet, and *15* others. Danny Alexander maybe getting a cabinet seat as minister for Scotland.
[ 11. May 2010, 22:32: Message edited by: Think² ]
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
(That's a fifth of the available posts - with Lib Dems making up a sixth of the overall mps of the coallition government and closer to a fifth in terms of share of the vote.)
It also means a third of their MPs will end up in government.
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
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Having a LibDem Secretary of State for Scotland is a good idea. A Tory would be untenable. The LibDems have 11 seats in Scotland, the Tories only 1 seat.
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
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Yes that makes alot of sense. Both leaders taking a huge risk with this - fully committing to the coallition. No half measures.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Think²:
(That's a fifth of the available posts - with Lib Dems making up a sixth of the overall mps of the coallition government and closer to a fifth in terms of share of the vote.)
It also means a third of their MPs will end up in government.
Good move by Cameron. It'll mean that the Lib Dems' hands are dipped in the blood of spending cuts. They can't claim at a later date that they were really against them.
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
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I like a lot of what I hear so far. From Cameron's speech and the policy proposals announced so far, it sounds like it could be a bit of "Red Tory" and a bit of "Orange Book", with some much-needed political/institutional reform thrown in. We will have to wait and see what comes out when the details emerge and the budget cuts kick in, but for now I am mildly, and very cautiously, optimistic.
Posted by New Yorker (# 9898) on
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Our Congress is so boring in comparison.
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
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Now that they have their own government in Edinburgh Secretary of State for Scotland is almost as much a non-job as SoS Wales.
Add that to the Deputy Prime Minister and what have you? Absolutely nothing so far. Maybe they can be given the Duchy of Lancaster as well. Or Minister without Portfolio.
If true partners they will get at least one of Home or Foreign Secretary, or Chancellor of the Exchequer. If the Tories aren't prepared to drop one of those great offices then we know who wears the trousers.
If mere junior partners, the hired help, they would get at least two or three of the relatively important Cabinet jobs such as Lord Chancellor, Defence, Health, Education, Justice (if they keep that innovation) or the other Treasury posts and a couple of other senior positions.
If they don't even get those, if its all junior positions and placeholders, then they've been shafted.
I sort of hope they do get Wales though because then we can use that great quote from "man for all seasons"
Posted by TonyK (# 35) on
:
Well, I, for one, will say thank heavens. At least it has the potential to be a stable and effective government in the short term. It was a pity that the electorate didn't give the Conservatives a working majority in the first place!!
The last time the Conservatives took over from Labour the economy was in ruins - looks like history is repeating itself!! If both parties to the coalition can see the need for tough action, we might see some progress.
Posted by piglet (# 11803) on
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I agree with TonyK, and say good luck to them.
Posted by Sober Preacher's Kid (# 12699) on
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On a point of history, this is the first time the UK Liberals will have been in Cabinet in 65 years.
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
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quote:
Originally posted by TonyK:
The last time the Conservatives took over from Labour the economy was in ruins - looks like history is repeating itself!!
It seems to be a widely held view among Conservatives that Labour governments leave behind an economy damaged by over-spending. I remember hearing Conservative politicians in 1997 who were keen to emphasise how the economy was in good shape then. No doubt, at the next election, the conditions prevailing now will be discussed.
My perception is that Conservative governments tend to leave behind public services starved of resources - junior doctors worn out by 100-hour weeks and exhausted teachers leaving the profession. I wonder if the economic situation in '97 was linked to the dot.com bubble, rising house prices and relatively unregulated financial services - we know how those trends worked out.
quote:
Originally posted by TonyK:
If both parties to the coalition can see the need for tough action, we might see some progress.
By 'tough action', do you mean 'deep cuts in public services'? I wonder if there is still a debate to be had about why, and whether, these are necessary.
Conservatives seem to say that deep cuts now are needed because of public spending. I wonder if we'd be talking about deep cuts if the banking crisis hadn't happened. If £6 billion of cuts are the only option, then presumably banks could not afford to pay us back a small proportion of what we paid them in the bailout - if that's the case, how could they pay £5 billion of bonusus in 2009? If £6 billion of savings are unavoidable, why isn't more being done to tackle between £2.1 billion to £6.6 billion a year in corporate tax avoidance (or the up to £25 billion a year of tax avoidance by corporations and individuals?)
Having said all of that, I hope that our new government live up to their supporters' best hopes, and not my worst fears. May they govern with 'tough minds and tender hearts' and may God's wisdom guide them.
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Alwyn:
Having said all of that, I hope that our new government live up to their supporters' best hopes, and not my worst fears. May they govern with 'tough minds and tender hearts' and may God's wisdom guide them.
Alwyn, you remain a better person than me.
I have little doubt that they will live up to my worst fears. My only doubt is whether they will get the blame for doing so or be able to sell the confidence trick that it's not our fault, it's the awful economy the Labour government left us that made us do it...
My only tiny bit of hope comes from the fact that the evidence thus far is that the LibDems may be a moderating influence... but sadly not enough, I fear.
AFZ
Posted by QLib (# 43) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by TonyK:
The last time the Conservatives took over from Labour the economy was in ruins - looks like history is repeating itself!! If both parties to the coalition can see the need for tough action, we might see some progress.
But the last time the economy was close to ruin was in 1992, when the Tories unexpectedly won and had to sort out their own mess. Who can forget the Spitting Image sketch portraying them as outgoing tenants trashing the place and then waking up wrecked the next morning and realising their lease had been renewed? The memory still raises a
Alwyn - sounds like your experience of Tories only goes as far back as Thatcherism - lets hope it won't be as bad as that and we may even see (in some respects) a return to the 'consensus' politics of the previous generation. Only 'New', like wot Nick said.
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
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quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
My only doubt is whether they will get the blame for doing so or be able to sell the confidence trick that it's not our fault, it's the awful economy the Labour government left us that made us do it...
I'm sure that some Conservatives will use that argument. As you'll realise, my previous post was partly about whether there is any chance of a debate about whether the deep cuts are inevitable or a choice. I wonder if people will make comparisons between Labour telling us 'there is no alternative' to participation in the invasion of Iraq in 2003, and the Conservatives telling us that 'there is no alternative' to deep cuts in 2010? Surely, by now, people are sceptical of 'TINA' arguments by British governments?
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
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Not those who are economically literate.
Posted by Yerevan (# 10383) on
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Before people get suck into Nick Clegg for 'betraying the left', lets look at the alternatives. Personally my heart's with a coalition of the left, but my head says it wouldn't have worked. A leftwing rainbow alliance would have taken weeks to put together and would have been horribly ineffective and unwieldy. And it would have involved exempting Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland from cuts, which would (quite rightly) have pissed off Labour MPs sitting for deprived English constituencies. IMO it would have collapsed within a year without really achieving anything, leaving the electorate to punish the left and return Cameron with a massive majority. In other words the Lib Dems would have been damned whatever they did. As it is, Lib Dem involvement will reign in the worst aspects of a Cameron government, while the convergence of libertarian strains within both parties might be quite positive on things like civil liberties. Labour needs to be out of office for a while to sort itself out and might bounce back in five years aided by defections from the Lib Dems and an unpopular government.
Posted by Yerevan (# 10383) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Sober Preacher's Kid:
On a point of history, this is the first time the UK Liberals will have been in Cabinet in 65 years.
On another point of history, there is a worrying precedence for the Lib Dems in Lloyd George, the Liberal Prime Minister who opted to lead his Tory-Liberal wartime coalition into the general election of 1918. LG remained as Prime Minister at the mercy of a massive Tory majority and the Liberals split and never recovered.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
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Oh happy day - sense has prevailed! Finally, hope is restored to the nation!
I honestly doubted that Clegg would do the right thing for a while there. Fortunately it seems that Labour, through some pathetic negotiating and a lack of desire to share power, have inadvertantly done the honourable thing and fallen on their swords.
Let the project to rebuild Britain as a place where liberty rules and the nanny state is quashed begin!
quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
...the confidence trick that it's not our fault, it's the awful economy the Labour government left us that made us do it...
What you call "confidence trick", most people call "the truth". The state of the economy does require hard action, even Labour were saying that in the run-up to the election.
Posted by Clint Boggis (# 633) on
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Tories got 36% of the votes and LibDems got 23%. This means that together they represent 59% of those who voted, many of whom will not have considered the other party as their second choice. Still, coalition means lumping parties together by merging their policies and adding their seats or votes to justify a democratic mandate.
The LibDems represent nearly 39% of this combined electoral mandate, which makes comments like 'the tail wagging the dog' look rather silly. Of course they'd rather have a couple of dozen more lobby fodder types to help push through a Tory legislative programme without any loss of power or influence.
So if the LibDems don't get 20%-30% of the more powerful ministerial jobs, they'll have been sold short.
.
Posted by Mr. Spouse (# 3353) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Let the project to rebuild Britain as a place where liberty rules and the nanny state is quashed begin!
I think I must have missed that bit.
Posted by Yerevan (# 10383) on
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Out of curiousity, does anyone else find the tendency to substitute "progressive" for "left-wing" (as in "the progressive alliance") annoying? Left-wingers I like and understand. Progessives just seem to be people who will supporting anything under the sun provided its new, shiny and fashionable, which was always New Labour's most annoying tendency. Maybe its just me...
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Yerevan:
Before people get suck into Nick Clegg for 'betraying the left', lets look at the alternatives. Personally my heart's with a coalition of the left, but my head says it wouldn't have worked. A leftwing rainbow alliance would have taken weeks to put together and would have been horribly ineffective and unwieldy. And it would have involved exempting Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland from cuts, which would (quite rightly) have pissed off Labour MPs sitting for deprived English constituencies. IMO it would have collapsed within a year without really achieving anything, leaving the electorate to punish the left and return Cameron with a massive majority. In other words the Lib Dems would have been damned whatever they did. As it is, Lib Dem involvement will reign in the worst aspects of a Cameron government, while the convergence of libertarian strains within both parties might be quite positive on things like civil liberties. Labour needs to be out of office for a while to sort itself out and might bounce back in five years aided by defections from the Lib Dems and an unpopular government.
Yes, but Labour had to offer the country a back-up plan in case the lib-con talks fell apart. They couldn't just go, oh well, nevermind, your problem, we're off. Brown resigned as soon as it was obvious Cameron could get a working deal - in fact I think he timed that to make sure the vacillating would not continue longer and they'd have a confirmed deal by the time the markets opened.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Yerevan:
Out of curiousity, does anyone else find the tendency to substitute "progressive" for "left-wing" (as in "the progressive alliance") annoying?
Yes, hugely. Especially since in this case, "progressive" would actually have meant "no change"...
Posted by Yerevan (# 10383) on
:
Of course they did, and Nick Clegg was right to talk to Labour as well. In fact Labour have been pretty dignified all in all. Its just a pity a Lib-Lab coalition couldn't work.
Posted by Clint Boggis (# 633) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Yerevan:
Of course they did, and Nick Clegg was right to talk to Labour as well. In fact Labour have been pretty dignified all in all. Its just a pity a Lib-Lab coalition couldn't work.
Yes, of course Clegg was right to explore all possible alternatives and did as he said he would be talking first to the party with the highest vote. Brown was dignified and behaved decently and properly.
I'd have preferred a Lib-Lab pact but it came down to numbers. Maybe it's a good thing it happened like that as it made the outcome easier to decide and I'm hopeful that it'll work out well.
Cameron seems ok (for a Tory) and being kept in check by LibDems seems not too bad a result. What leverage does Clegg have though if he's promised LibDem support for a full parliament?
.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Clint Boggis:
What leverage does Clegg have though if he's promised LibDem support for a full parliament?
.
I doubt very much that it will have been a "now and forever" agreement. It'll be dependent on a few things going the way Clegg wants them to.
Posted by Wesley J (# 6075) on
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Isn't it the dreaded Osborne as Chancellor now? Oh dear.
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
...as a place where liberty rules...
Aye, but how does the new Government understand liberty?
Is it just "freedom of capital" and unrestrained market plutocracy?
Or is there some hope of finding a deeper and richer, more humane, more democratic and more civic concept of liberty?
We shall see.
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
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The beeb are saying they are going to devolve more power to Scotland - implementing the findings of the Calman Commission.
Posted by Daffy Duck (# 13488) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
It follows that in any system that is designed to dramatically reduce the number of overall majorities, the LibLab Party will be virtually unimpeachable. Far from making each vote more relevant, it would ensure that the makeup of the resulting government is known before any votes are even cast. All the electorate would be able to decide would be the exact shade of orange they'd use as a backdrop.
Don't be so sur, that is what was being argued here in NZ with National(Cons.) and two other parties forming a very strong reight wing. As it eventuated we did have a right wing govt. for a few years after the introduction of MMP, bu the had four terms od a Labour led left coilition, against all the arguments.
The real problem is that we ended upo each time with the tail wagging the dog, the small minorities controlling what the majority do.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
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If you mean Helen Clark's governments, I disagree. The Greens in particular seemed to get nothing in return for their support.
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
Hmm - looks likes the fixed term parliaments are five years, requiring 55% vote of no confidence to dissolve.
Posted by Daffy Duck (# 13488) on
:
What the British public have to decide now is whether they want a hung Parliament after every election, or not.
What we have just seen is a superb example of Mr. Clegg manipulating both major parties to get the maximum clout for the liberals: the tail wagging two dogs at once. That is the pattern for any MMP government, it now remains to be seen whether Mr.Cameron is clever enough to eventually toss LibDems the bones they want ion a way that they find are no real use to them
In NZ we currently have a PM who is very adept at this.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
If something similar happened in the UK, there would be a delicious irony in the Liberal Democrats being destroyed by the thing that they desired for so long.
I have no doubt that PR would end the Liberals. They would find a home in a soft left labour or a new one nation Tory like party. I think that UKIP might do very well on a PR system since England is generally Euro sceptic but no one thinks UKIP will get in. On a PR system they would do.
It might depend on the type of PR adopted. If single-member AV was used then the LibDems, used to coming second in many seats, could pick up quite a few second preference seats from (to be specific) Labour when the Conservatives come first and Conservatives where Labour come first. It would vary from place to place, and the Conservatives would have taken UKIP second preferences too. The effect of all that may be enough to overtake the candidate that would have won in a FPTP election. Victory would then go the "least unpopular" candidate, and the candidate lying third could well win a close race under AV!
Only just saw this now.
Labour's advocacy of AV is shrewd. While it does ensure that elected candidates are supported by 50% of the votes, it upholds the two-party system. Look at Australia for an example.
It is estimated that if the election had been held under AV, the Lib Dems would have got only 15 more seats. Basically, the Lib Dems finished third in most constituencies, and would have been eliminated before the run-off.
I remember it being said that Labour's majority in 1997 would have been about 220 under AV, with the Tories reduced to a rump of 60. This is because in many southern English seats the Tories won with 40%, Labour second with approx 30% and the Lib Dems third with 20%. The Lib Dems' second preference votes would have been redistributed to the Labour candidate, carrying him or her past the Tory.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by RadicalWhig:
Aye, but how does the new Government understand liberty?
Is it just "freedom of capital" and unrestrained market plutocracy?
Or is there some hope of finding a deeper and richer, more humane, more democratic and more civic concept of liberty?
I'm thinking mostly of shit like ID cards and excessive nanny-state monitoring of everything we do being got rid of. Here's hoping
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Daffy Duck:
What the British public have to decide now is whether they want a hung Parliament after every election, or not.
What we have just seen is a superb example of Mr. Clegg manipulating both major parties to get the maximum clout for the liberals: the tail wagging two dogs at once. That is the pattern for any MMP government, it now remains to be seen whether Mr.Cameron is clever enough to eventually toss LibDems the bones they want ion a way that they find are no real use to them
In NZ we currently have a PM who is very adept at this.
Huh? How has he been manipulative precisely?
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
Is it just me or did Cam appear to make a grab for his wife's boobs on the steps of No 10? I know he's probably got a hard-on at the thought of being PM, but really!!
Posted by lowlands_boy (# 12497) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Is it just me or did Cam appear to make a grab for his wife's boobs on the steps of No 10? I know he's probably got a hard-on at the thought of being PM, but really!!
To be fair though, however exciting it must be to pull up in the car, it must be absolutely terrifying in one sense to get out and think "shit, I could press the red button". Hezza was on the beeb's live coverage last night, saying that literally the first thing that happens when you get through the door is a security briefing, as the PM is responsible for the independent nuclear deterrent.
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Yerevan:
Out of curiousity, does anyone else find the tendency to substitute "progressive" for "left-wing" (as in "the progressive alliance") annoying? Left-wingers I like and understand. Progessives just seem to be people who will supporting anything under the sun provided its new, shiny and fashionable, which was always New Labour's most annoying tendency. Maybe its just me...
There is something awfully 1930s about the word "progressive". Grain elevators and modern architecture and hydro-electric dams and sensible shoes and and eager young intellectuals in open-neck shirts slumming it in the East End (Or in the Tennessee Valley, or the Caucasus, or the back streets of Budapest)
There's nothing wrong with grain elevators and modern architecture and sensible shoes, in fact I quite approve of them. But its all a bit dated. And it doesn't have the blood and fire that Socialism ought to have. Or the nice William Morris stuff
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
This is the beeb list of policies of the coallition known so far. Presumably they will continue to update it.
And here is the cabinet list - again presumably will be kept updated.
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
:
The problem I have with the word "progressive" is that it implies there is only one direction and type of "progress" - it reveals a very whiggish understanding of history as moving ever-forward to bigger and better (I have republican, cyclical, view of history).
However, we seem to lack an alternative term to describe the non-socialist left.
I used to like the term "radical centre" (radical because it believes in the republican values of liberty, equality and fraternity, and is not afraid of fundamental change; centre because it is does not favour either State-dominated autocracy or market-dominated plutocracy, but seeks to balance both of these for the common good). However, to most people "radical centre" sounds like a contradictory mish-mash.
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Daffy Duck:
What the British public have to decide now is whether they want a hung Parliament after every election, or not.
As there is no political consensus in the country, why not?
A "hung" Parliament could as well be called a balanced Parliament, or a fair Parliament or a representative Parliament.
If the government cannot rely on driving Bills through with their whips they will be forced to persuade MPs to vote for them. They will be forced to listen to. They will have to discuss, to negotiate, to do deals. That all seems rather good to me.
One of the major problems with the British system is that, unlike the USA, normal politics is suspended between general elections. Governments expect to be able to get away with whatever they want without having to defend themselves or their policies. They love to "consult" but they hate really listening to what anyone else says.
Of course deals are done - they always are in any political system - but they are done in private, inside the system, between big business and party leaders, long before a Bill goes to Parliament - or else increasingly these days by professional lobbyists using the House of Lords to get some leverage. (This is not a partisan point - Tory and Labour have been equally bad at it and the Liberals last five days show they are just as addicted to the behind-the-scenes deal)
Much better to have things out inthe open and have votes in Parliament that actually mean something. Or at least, if the votes are carved beforehand, do the stich-ups separately on each policy rather than a package-deal pocket Parliament for four years.
We've had too much strong government in my lifetime. The two biggest political disasters in Downing Street were Blair (who started well and went downhill fast) and Thatcher (who started shit and didn't get better) In both cases the problem was that they could get away with silly ideas because they didn't need to listen to the opposition, or to Parliament, or even (in the short term) to public opinion.
We've had enough of elected dictatorships. If we had had balanced Parliaments over the last thirty years would we ave had the Poll Tax, ID cards, the Digital Economy Bill? Would we have invaded Iraq?
Posted by Pre-cambrian (# 2055) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Think²:
Hmm - looks likes the fixed term parliaments are five years, requiring 55% vote of no confidence to dissolve.
I don't like the sound of that. David Cameron no doubt wants to protect himself against the LibDems jumping ship at any moment. But what this also means is that the Tories could dump the LibDems and get to stay in power by making themselves unchallengeable (they have 47% of MPs). They are changing the rules to guarantee themselves 5 years in power despite not having a clear mandate. The effect is to shift power once again from Parliament to the Executive and to shut the voter out even more. It's not a good start.
[ 12. May 2010, 13:23: Message edited by: Pre-cambrian ]
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Pre-cambrian:
David Cameron no doubt wants to protect himself against the LibDems jumping ship at any moment. But what this also means is that the Tories could dump the LibDems and get to stay in power by making themselves unchallengeable (they have 47% of MPs). They are changing the rules to guarantee themselves 5 years in power despite not having a clear mandate.
Have you missed the fact that fixed-term parliaments are a Liberal Democrat policy that the Conservatives have had to accept as part of forming the coalition?
Or that it's also something Labour proposed - one of their manifesto pledges was a referendum on fixed-term parliament by 2011?
I think you'll find that the Conservatives were the only major party that didn't advocate this idea during the run-up to the election. To accuse them of being the ones who are changing the rules at this stage is disingenuous at best - they're just doing what the other two parties wanted to do anyway! The very picture of consensus politics, one might say...
Posted by Yorick (# 12169) on
:
Aye. And now we're living in con-dem nation.
(I'll get me coat).
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
Just watched the press conference. Clegg is getting primary responsibility for electoral reform.
We also got to see Cameron cringe when asked if he now regretted saying, when asked his favourite political joke - "Nick Clegg". To be fair, he did give a very good reply.
Interesting the way they managed the questions, Nick Clegg waiting to be asked to respond unless the question was asked to him directly. Cameron asserting himself as the boss and authoritative.
Posted by Pre-cambrian (# 2055) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Have you missed the fact that fixed-term parliaments are a Liberal Democrat policy that the Conservatives have had to accept as part of forming the coalition? [SNIP]
I think you'll find that the Conservatives were the only major party that didn't advocate this idea during the run-up to the election. To accuse them of being the ones who are changing the rules at this stage is disingenuous at best - they're just doing what the other two parties wanted to do anyway!
No I haven't missed that fixed-term parliaments were in the LibDem manifesto. I also haven't missed that what that manifesto actually said was: quote:
Introduce fixed-term parliaments to ensure that the Prime Minister of the day cannot change the date of an election to suit themselves.
There is nothing there suggesting that from now on 45% should be a parliamentary majority on a confidence issue. The aim of the LibDem policy was to reduce the power of the Prime Minister, not to make him immune from negative votes in Parliament. The sole beneficiaries of this change are the Tories.
[ 12. May 2010, 14:00: Message edited by: Pre-cambrian ]
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Pre-cambrian:
The sole beneficiaries of this change are the Tories.
The beneficiaries are any party trying to form a minority government when they're just short of the seats needed for an overall majority.
It makes for more stability after elections like this one, while doing nothing to change the fact that in these circumstances minority governments still need the other parties to agree on any policies they want to enact.
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
Here is the full text of the deal. (Which the civil service are now in the process or turning into a government white paper.)
Posted by lowlands_boy (# 12497) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Think²:
Here is the full text of the deal. (Which the civil service are now in the process or turning into a government white paper.)
Hmmm - Heathrow runway 3 is gone apparently.
[ 12. May 2010, 15:10: Message edited by: lowlands_boy ]
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
Yup and the Home Office website says: "Both parties that now form the new government stated in their manifestos that they will cancel Identity Cards and the National Identity Register." It adds though that, until further notice, "identity cards remain valid".
Posted by Angloid (# 159) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
quote:
Originally posted by Think²:
Here is the full text of the deal. (Which the civil service are now in the process or turning into a government white paper.)
Hmmm - Heathrow runway 3 is gone apparently.
Every cloud has a silver lining.
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
I am *very* pleased about ID cards.
Posted by Moth (# 2589) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Think²:
Yup and the Home Office website says: "Both parties that now form the new government stated in their manifestos that they will cancel Identity Cards and the National Identity Register." It adds though that, until further notice, "identity cards remain valid".
It would be more useful if they also got rid of some of the laws that require proof of identity. I signed a passport application last week for a young friend who needs a passport to get a student loan! If we have to keep showing our passports to get bank accounts, mortgages etc, we may as well have an identity card!
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on
:
<frivolous tangent>
Is it just me, or has David Cameron put on weight during the campaign? In all the pictures, he looks distinctly chubby to me. With all the late nights and stress it would make sense (or maybe he's sympathy-eating with his pregnant wife)… time to get back on that bike, Dave
On the other hand, unless Gordon Brown was using a lot of hair-dye during his tenure, this election campaign has put years on him.
</frivolous tangent>
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
He wants to amke sure you can tell him apart from Clegg
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Pre-cambrian:
But what this also means is that the Tories could dump the LibDems and get to stay in power by making themselves unchallengeable (they have 47% of MPs).
There is another scenario. If the Conservatives have 47% of seats, it means everyone else combined for about 53%. If the Lib Dems get fed up with the coalition, they only need to convince 10-15 disgruntled Tories to rebel and parliament must be dissolved.
A balanced parliament is not the situation that you need to be worried about. It is when there is a Blairesque 100+ majority, because there would be no overturning that.
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Moth:
It would be more useful if they also got rid of some of the laws that require proof of identity.
Proof if identity was always only one facet of ID cards. The other side of the coin was the database with biometric and other data which would be stored by the government, and the fact that all this information would suddenly be in one (hacker-enticing) place. I don't think you have that problem with passports as they are currently set up.
Posted by Gildas (# 525) on
:
Originally posted by our shiny new government:
quote:
We will end the detention of children for immigration purposes.
Good grief. In the midst of all that lot someone was actually thinking about a bunch of poor foreign kids locked away in Yarls Wood.
File under: Humanity, not all bad after all.
Posted by Mr. Spouse (# 3353) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Pre-cambrian:
No I haven't missed that fixed-term parliaments were in the LibDem manifesto. I also haven't missed that what that manifesto actually said was: quote:
Introduce fixed-term parliaments to ensure that the Prime Minister of the day cannot change the date of an election to suit themselves.
There is nothing there suggesting that from now on 45% should be a parliamentary majority on a confidence issue. The aim of the LibDem policy was to reduce the power of the Prime Minister, not to make him immune from negative votes in Parliament. The sole beneficiaries of this change are the Tories.
Increasing the required majority to 55% is hardly immunity. If it's 55% of all MPs, not just those voting, then it will make it harder to displace the standing government. But if the Lib Dems fall out with the Tories, do you really think Labour wouldn't vote to force them out?
Posted by Nightlamp (# 266) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
it's not our fault, it's the awful economy the Labour government left us that made us do it...
In what way is this not the truth. Labour spent to much for 10 years on things that were good but based on the delusion of the cinderella economy. Then labour had to spend huge amounts of money bailing out the banks which was a disaster for which the Government on retrospect can be seen to have made worse.
Even Alistair Darling said
quote:
Asked by the BBC's Political Editor Nick Robinson to accept the Treasury's own figures suggest deeper, tougher cuts than those implemented by the Thatcher government in the 1980s, Mr Darling replied: "They will be deeper and tougher - where we make the precise comparison, I think, is secondary to the fact that there is an acknowledgement that these reductions will be tough
Do not delude yourself AFZ Labour have helped to wreck the economy. This election was the one to lose.
If I was a Tory MP and wanted to be in power for a long time. I would have prayed for a feeble Lib-Lab pact which would have tried to do something then died later this year ushering probably 20 odd years of conservative Government.
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Moth:
If we have to keep showing our passports to get bank accounts, mortgages etc, we may as well have an identity card!
That's why they want to make you show ID for those things. It was all done deliberately.
The security people have wanted ID cards for a long time, but no-one was listening. After 9/11 the Americans started putting pressure on the UK government to introduce them, so they became official policy (even though the majority of Labour MPs didn't want them). After a while it became obvious that they were a stupid idea, but the rachet of party policy didn't let them back down. So the government hads to find a way to justify the policy. So they looked around for a reason to do what they were going to do anyway. They wanted to make people want ID cards, so they invented dozens of needless rules to force peoppe to "identify" themselves so that ID cards would seem easier.
This is a common problem these days. Anyone remember Energy Performance Certificates and Home Information Packs? Same principle - once they had become policy they had to be justified even when the reason for them had gone away.
Since at least the early 1980s (& probably longer) the main parliamentary parties (and the media) have been completely sold on the idea that only Strong and United Parties can win elections. The worst thing you can do is have policy discussions in public. You could call this the Mandelson Doctrine, as he persuded the Labour Party to follow it - though its a lot older than him. Everyone must be seen to be On Message. Changing your mind is seen as a sign of weakness. OPen discussion is seen as a sign of weakness.
So the Mandelson Ratchet applies. Once the Prime Minister has committed to anything, anything at all, then it become Party Policy and all MPs have to unite behind it otherwise the Party will seem Divided and Weak.
Posted by kentishmaid (# 4767) on
:
PM reported that the Department of Children etc has now been rebranded Department of Education, as it was before. So their pledge to cut waste has already been broken five minutes after taking office.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Think²:
Here is the full text of the deal. (Which the civil service are now in the process or turning into a government white paper.)
Encouraging stuff, but that's a pretty hefty program of legislation which should keep the Sir Humphreys* and Bernard Woolleys* busy for many a day. Cutting top civil servants obviously isn't going to involve those close to ministers (says a cynical civil servant who isn't within miles of any minister).
*Star characters of Yes Minister and Yes Prime Minister. Career civil servants.
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
:
I think that the education sector ought to be very, very afraid.
Posted by Wesley J (# 6075) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Yorick:
Aye. And now we're living in con-dem nation.
(I'll get me coat).
Been done. More than 2 days ago. Off with you.
Posted by Thurible (# 3206) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by kentishmaid:
PM reported that the Department of Children etc has now been rebranded Department of Education, as it was before. So their pledge to cut waste has already been broken five minutes after taking office.
It's good to know what an holistic approach they have and how important children and families are to the Con-Dems.
Thurible
Posted by Og: Thread Killer (# 3200) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Gildas:
Originally posted by our shiny new government:
quote:
We will end the detention of children for immigration purposes.
Good grief. In the midst of all that lot someone was actually thinking about a bunch of poor foreign kids locked away in Yarls Wood.
File under: Humanity, not all bad after all.
When you get truly co-operative horse trading, this is the sort of thing that may happen, especially when the two parties have not been in power for a while and still might be a bit idealistic.
Wish our government was being run that way...all we get is brinksmanship.
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
Here is some vintage Appleby for your delectation:
Of course in the Rose Garden press conference David C swore blind he would be leaving the door open to allow Nick C access without an appointment ....
Posted by Sleepwalker (# 15343) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
I think that the education sector ought to be very, very afraid.
Why?
I'm in the education sector. I'm not afraid. Jeez, you can't be afraid and be in the education sector. Governments can't leave the education sector alone.
I have to say that I agree with our new boss when he says this:
Education is about "introducing young people to the best that has been thought and written", he has said. "The beauty of poetry and drama. The discoveries of science. They symmetry of mathematics. For me, it is awakening people to the glories to what humankind has been capable of producing over millennia."
Spot on, IMO.
And I'm so glad that I don't have to teach PHSE now and that in a year's time I won't have to teach children how to manage their bank accounts. In short, I hope now that we have a predominantly conservative government, we can leave parental responsibilities to parents and get on with the business of educating.
[ 12. May 2010, 20:20: Message edited by: Sleepwalker ]
Posted by Sleepwalker (# 15343) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Think²:
Here is the full text of the deal. (Which the civil service are now in the process or turning into a government white paper.)
I like it.
I do like the civil liberties stuff. Oh, but it feels good to have a government who want to 'roll back' state control.
I quite like the environment stuff as well. Tucked in amongst it all was this:
Measures to promote green spaces and wildlife corridors in order to halt the loss of habitats and restore biodiversity.
Fabulous.
Oh, it is just so good to have the Tories back, even if it's with a little partner in tow!
Relief, relief!
Posted by Sleepwalker (# 15343) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Think²:
Interesting the way they managed the questions, Nick Clegg waiting to be asked to respond unless the question was asked to him directly. Cameron asserting himself as the boss and authoritative.
That's because Cameron is the boss. The Tories won the most seats and the most votes. Of the three major parties, the LibDems won the fewest of both. First and third together means First gets to be boss.
Yay!!
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
:
Does anybody have a full copy of the coalition agreement - this seven page document that everyone is talking about. Is it available online anywhere? I need to read it!
Posted by Thurible (# 3206) on
:
It's not this one?
Thurible
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Thurible:
It's not this one?
Thurible
Thanks!
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
:
It's a good plan. On paper, I like it. We will see how it works out, but the general thrust and direction are very appealing. For the first time in my adult life, my concerns are not totally ignored by Westminster politics. The political reform and civil liberties elements are like nectar to my soul.
[ 12. May 2010, 22:12: Message edited by: RadicalWhig ]
Posted by Angloid (# 159) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sleepwalker:
I do like the civil liberties stuff. Oh, but it feels good to have a government who want to 'roll back' state control.
Like the Schools Secretary who wants to ensure that every school pupil wears a tie and bring ex-soldiers into schools to 'impose discipline'?
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by RadicalWhig:
Does anybody have a full copy of the coalition agreement - this seven page document that everyone is talking about. Is it available online anywhere? I need to read it!
You mean the one I already linked to here.
I am begining to feel like that woman in the fast show sketch who offers information the men don't appear to have heard, until they repeat it word for word.
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
:
Sorry, Think2 - In my extravagant haste I didn't notice your earlier post. Apologies.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Angloid:
quote:
Originally posted by Sleepwalker:
I do like the civil liberties stuff. Oh, but it feels good to have a government who want to 'roll back' state control.
Like the Schools Secretary who wants to ensure that every school pupil wears a tie and bring ex-soldiers into schools to 'impose discipline'?
A good point. It's also necessary to point out any waterboarding of naughty pupils should certainly be carried out by the State.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
On that point, I thought David Laws looked like Osborne's housemaster when they gave that joint interviiew; I half-expected the former to say, "Yes, George can be Chancellor, but only as a summer job; for the moment he has to go back to school and sit his A-Levels."
Posted by Albertus (# 13356) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
quote:
Originally posted by Angloid:
quote:
Originally posted by Sleepwalker:
I do like the civil liberties stuff. Oh, but it feels good to have a government who want to 'roll back' state control.
Like the Schools Secretary who wants to ensure that every school pupil wears a tie and bring ex-soldiers into schools to 'impose discipline'?
A good point. It's also necessary to point out any waterboarding of naughty pupils should certainly be carried out by the State.
I remember Michael Gove when he was an undergraduate and at that time, if his reputation was anything to go by, the thought of ex-soldiers imposing discipline might have been expected to please him very much indeed. He was certainly plumper, much camper, and IIRC rather more Scottish then than his is now.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
On that point, I thought David Laws looked like Osborne's housemaster when they gave that joint interviiew; I half-expected the former to say, "Yes, George can be Chancellor, but only as a summer job; for the moment he has to go back to school and sit his A-Levels."
Chief Secretary of the Treasury is like that. However smart the Chancellor is (and they need to be) the Chief Sec has to do the difficult sums and all the dirty work. It's also his job to say "Mr Chancellor, that's horseshit".
With Vince Cable also involved at times, some aspects of financial decision making could get very tense. It's the one are where the LibDems can make an impact - which might be a bit of low cunning by Cameron as the Treasury will surely be the focus of unpleasantness in the year or so to come. Apart from the Home Office that is, where unpleasantness is the modus operandi.
Posted by Gildas (# 525) on
:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
quote:
It's the one are where the LibDems can make an impact - which might be a bit of low cunning by Cameron as the Treasury will surely be the focus of unpleasantness in the year or so to come. Apart from the Home Office that is, where unpleasantness is the modus operandi.
If it all goes horribly wrong the Lib Dems won't be able to say 'not me guv'nor we was kept out of the loop as far as cuts and spending was concerned'.
Broadly speaking it looks like everyone has got their eye on the next election. Cameron is going to do all the horrible things that need to be done PDQ so that by the time the next election rolls round he can offer some modest tax cuts and sweetners in public spending whilst using the Liberals to neutralise the Tory right. I notice that young Grayling has been dispatched into the political wilderness after his faux pas over the B & Bs and been replaced by Teresa May who famously told the Tory Conference that they were in danger of becoming the nasty party. I note also that the Liberals get to abstain on the married couples tax allowance. So the British evangelical right are going to learn in short order what the American evangelical right have yet to notice. That their job is to deliver the maximum number of votes for the minimum number of concessions.
Labour will have their knives out for the Lib Dems and will be saying on the door step that the only way to stop the Tories is to vote for them (which is why they had no enthusiasm for a deal). The object of the exercise is to unite the centre left around David Milliband or Ed Balls. (Stop snickering at the back.)
The Lib Dems have the trickiest bit. They will lose votes as a result of this deal (although they should pick up some stray Tory votes in Liberal/ Labour marginals). So they key bit for Cleggy is twofold. Firstly there is the alternative vote. Currently the Liberals got 23% of the vote and 7% of the seats. If next time round they drop to 11% of the vote and 11% of the seats then they are ahead of the game. Then there is the 10K tax threshold. This will be genuinely popular - a kind of 10p tax band fiasco in reverse - and it was all the Liberals idea. So the Liberal message on the doorsteps will be 'Yes we did a deal with the Tories and we know that a lot of you are angry about that. But look what we delivered with 57 MPs. When Labour were in and had a thumping great majority they abolished the 10p tax band. We brought in the 10k threshold. So who are you better off with?' This is a very high risk strategy - if it goes wrong they'll be down to 1950s levels of parliamentary representation - but the stakes are worth it.
Incidentally, how long before someone puts a mashup of the press conference on Youtube to the tune of 'Let's Face the Music and Dance'?
There may be trouble ahead, but where there's music and love and romance...
Posted by Angloid (# 159) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Albertus:
Michael Gove ... was certainly plumper, much camper, and IIRC rather more Scottish then than his is now.
You'd have thought that he, and any other Tories with the slightest Scottish connections (Cameron??) would want to make the most of it seeing as Scottish Tories are rarer than hen's teeth.
Posted by Gildas (# 525) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Angloid:
quote:
Originally posted by Albertus:
Michael Gove ... was certainly plumper, much camper, and IIRC rather more Scottish then than his is now.
You'd have thought that he, and any other Tories with the slightest Scottish connections (Cameron??) would want to make the most of it seeing as Scottish Tories are rarer than hen's teeth.
But if you are fondly endeavouring to cash in on English ressentiment at the number of Scots in the government, as the Tories did for much of the noughties, then it really doesn't do to have the Shadow Spokesman for Education turning up on Newsnight sounding like he'd just stepped off the set of Hamish MacBeth.
Besides, if one is an ambitious young MP trying to get in with the Bullingdon set one hardly wishes to address one's peers in the accent that they generally only hear when exchaning pleasantries with their ghillie.
[ 13. May 2010, 09:52: Message edited by: Gildas ]
Posted by Thurible (# 3206) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Gildas:
Then there is the 10K tax threshold. This will be genuinely popular - a kind of 10p tax band fiasco in reverse - and it was all the Liberals idea. So the Liberal message on the doorsteps will be 'Yes we did a deal with the Tories and we know that a lot of you are angry about that. But look what we delivered with 57 MPs. When Labour were in and had a thumping great majority they abolished the 10p tax band. We brought in the 10k threshold. So who are you better off with?'
This article makes very interesting reading on this subject.
Thurible
Posted by Pottage (# 9529) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Thurible:
quote:
Originally posted by Gildas:
Then there is the 10K tax threshold. This will be genuinely popular - a kind of 10p tax band fiasco in reverse - and it was all the Liberals idea. So the Liberal message on the doorsteps will be 'Yes we did a deal with the Tories and we know that a lot of you are angry about that. But look what we delivered with 57 MPs. When Labour were in and had a thumping great majority they abolished the 10p tax band. We brought in the 10k threshold. So who are you better off with?'
This article makes very interesting reading on this subject.
Thurible
This article discusses the same points but without the overt (and understandable) points scoring which mars the credibility of the Left Foot Forward piece. Helpfully it also gives a couple of examples of how an increase in tax allowances would interact with benefits and allowances for those people who need to balance the two in order to be any better off.
Here's an alternative link to Left Foot Forward that's accessible without logging into facebook.
Posted by Thurible (# 3206) on
:
Thanks, pottage. I hadn't realised one had to log into facebook to see it.
I'll have a look at the other article too.
Thurible
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
On that point, I thought David Laws looked like Osborne's housemaster when they gave that joint interviiew; I half-expected the former to say, "Yes, George can be Chancellor, but only as a summer job; for the moment he has to go back to school and sit his A-Levels."
Chief Secretary of the Treasury is like that. However smart the Chancellor is (and they need to be) the Chief Sec has to do the difficult sums and all the dirty work. It's also his job to say "Mr Chancellor, that's horseshit".
"And if he gets his sums wrong, I'll give him a damn good thrashing!"
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
I think that the education sector ought to be very, very afraid.
Tell it to all the school leavers who, despite having perfectly good grades, won't get university places this year thanks to Labour cuts.
Speaking as someone in the education sector who has just had to do a lot of work to help balance our books after several million quid's worth of cuts at the end of last year and the start of this (comedy moment: the brainless suggestion by Mandelson that we make savings by teaching undergraduate degrees over two years rather than three), I'm not even slightly scared about the new government. It's pretty much impossible for them to be worse.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Pottage:
This article discusses the same points but without the overt (and understandable) points scoring which mars the credibility of the Left Foot Forward piece. Helpfully it also gives a couple of examples of how an increase in tax allowances would interact with benefits and allowances for those people who need to balance the two in order to be any better off.
And I note that it concludes that those people will indeed be better off as a result. Not by as much as you'd think, but I'd certainly be happy with any amount of extra cash in my back pocket.
Posted by aumbry (# 436) on
:
People keep talking about the Conservatives and Liberals getting the ire of the public when the spending cuts come through.
The public know fully well that the spending cuts are the product of Labour's economic mismanagement so I think it unlikely that either of the coalition parties will be blamed.
Where they will probably come unstuck is in dealings with the EU.
Posted by dyfrig (# 15) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sleepwalker:
I do like the civil liberties stuff. Oh, but it feels good to have a government who want to 'roll back' state control.
Well, we heard that before, in 1979 - it did not so much roll back as move to all the Quangos created and filled by appointment and needing staff to run them. It's not about rolling back anything, but about concentrating power in or dispsering it to where it will bolster your policies. Push it down to the smallest unit or one dependent on your patronage, and you reduce the risk of effective alternative power basis. "Localism" is as much a divide-and-rule policy as it is an ideology of "freedom".
Ofsted will need an entirely new department of inspectors and accountants to make sure the public purse is getting value for money out of all these private/parent/charity-run schools. And local authorities will have to find someone to do the economic development work that will fall to them when the RDAs are killed off* - taking here as an example, up to 40 new economic development departments paid for out of Council Tax, replacing one RDA.
* Declaration of interest - I work for one.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by aumbry:
People keep talking about the Conservatives and Liberals getting the ire of the public when the spending cuts come through.
The public know fully well that the spending cuts are the product of Labour's economic mismanagement so I think it unlikely that either of the coalition parties will be blamed.
Where they will probably come unstuck is in dealings with the EU.
Everyone is in favour of public expenditure cuts except when it hits them. The Navy wants its ships, the Army wants helicopters and better personal protection and the RAF doesn't want any cuts on Typhoon or JSF procurement. I bet many sailors, soldiers and airmen would support cutting JSA to those who have been out of work for six months or more (unless I suppose, if their last job was in the armed forces).
Note: I'm not knocking the armed forces at all, it's an illustration of the culture of "Me? I'm a special case, everybody else can take a cut".
I don't think the EU will be a problem to the coalition: it's a problem for the European Commission and especially the Eurozone for now. I reckon by-elections could cause tension.
Posted by Yerevan (# 10383) on
:
quote:
Where they will probably come unstuck is in dealings with the EU.
I don't think it will be either. Given that the euro's in trouble and the 'European Project' has run into the sand (IMO) the Con-Dems probably won't have too much to disagree about. Even if the Lib Dems were governing on their own I can't imagine them wanting to take the UK into the eurozone any time soon.
Posted by Adeodatus (# 4992) on
:
I see unemployment's up.
I blame the Tory government.
Posted by Moth (# 2589) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
I think that the education sector ought to be very, very afraid.
Tell it to all the school leavers who, despite having perfectly good grades, won't get university places this year thanks to Labour cuts.
Speaking as someone in the education sector who has just had to do a lot of work to help balance our books after several million quid's worth of cuts at the end of last year and the start of this (comedy moment: the brainless suggestion by Mandelson that we make savings by teaching undergraduate degrees over two years rather than three), I'm not even slightly scared about the new government. It's pretty much impossible for them to be worse.
There is of course, a university that does provide undergraduate degrees over two years - the private University of Buckingham. I used to work there, and it was quite possible. It is very popular with students, and has established a good name for itself.
It's worth remembering that the UK exports education, particularly through universities, which bring in a lot of money (£8 billion per annum, I believe).
Marvin, you should have been working in universities under the Tories. I've been here under both, and I think you're in for a shock!
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Adeodatus:
I see unemployment's up.
I blame the Tory government.
And someone was stabbed yesterday. The Government's lost control of crime already...!
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by aumbry:
The public know fully well that the spending cuts are the product of Labour's economic mismanagement so I think it unlikely that either of the coalition parties will be blamed.
Yes, let's perpetuate the lie that the world-wide economic and banking crisis is all Labour's fault. Oh and the structural deficit? That can't have anything to do with how massive underinvested in the the public sector was in the 80's could it?
Oh and which party oppossed Gordon Brown when he reduced the national debt in the 1990s?
AFZ
Posted by Dinghy Sailor (# 8507) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
quote:
Originally posted by aumbry:
The public know fully well that the spending cuts are the product of Labour's economic mismanagement so I think it unlikely that either of the coalition parties will be blamed.
Yes, let's perpetuate the lie that the world-wide economic and banking crisis is all Labour's fault. Oh and the structural deficit? That can't have anything to do with how massive underinvested in the the public sector was in the 80's could it?
Oh and which party oppossed Gordon Brown when he reduced the national debt in the 1990s?
AFZ
I only stopped hearing, "It's all the fault of the last Tory administration" a couple of years ago, and it's popped up once or twice since then. It's your turn now, so suck it up.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Moth:
There is of course, a university that does provide undergraduate degrees over two years - the private University of Buckingham. I used to work there, and it was quite possible. It is very popular with students, and has established a good name for itself.
For sure. My point was that it's a laughable idea in terms of saving money - it would mean receiving a third less in tuition fees per student, thus dramatically reducing university income.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
Yes, let's perpetuate the lie that the world-wide economic and banking crisis is all Labour's fault.
No-one is saying that. What we're saying is the seriousness of the effect it's had on Britain is Labour's fault.
quote:
Oh and the structural deficit? That can't have anything to do with how massive underinvested in the the public sector was in the 80's could it?
Let's be fair, the reasons for this are twofold: World War 2 and Unions.
World War 2, because it didn't quite destroy the country to the extent that we'd have had to completely rebuild, as it did to Germany and France. Instead we were able to "make do and mend", which was cheaper at the time but has left us operating with a lot of infrastructure that was outdated even in the forties and a culture of preferring to patch up the cracks in failing systems rather than completely rebuilding them.
The Unions, because they've seen to it that most increases in public service spending go straight into the pockets of the workers rather than into structural improvement works where the benefits would be felt for generations to come.
Posted by Angloid (# 159) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Yerevan:
quote:
Where they will probably come unstuck is in dealings with the EU.
I don't think it will be either. Given that the euro's in trouble and the 'European Project' has run into the sand (IMO) the Con-Dems probably won't have too much to disagree about. Even if the Lib Dems were governing on their own I can't imagine them wanting to take the UK into the eurozone any time soon.
Sarkozy thinks
he can cure Cameron's Europhobia.
Posted by Moth (# 2589) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by Moth:
There is of course, a university that does provide undergraduate degrees over two years - the private University of Buckingham. I used to work there, and it was quite possible. It is very popular with students, and has established a good name for itself.
For sure. My point was that it's a laughable idea in terms of saving money - it would mean receiving a third less in tuition fees per student, thus dramatically reducing university income.
Well, you could to charge more, which would be justified by the extended teaching time (Buckingham has four terms per year, and teaches over the calendar year rather than the academic year). Actually, Buckingham now charges £8000 a year. In theory the student can still be better off because they have to keep themselves for a year less, but that's offset by the inability to work over the summer. It's certainly attractive to mature students who only spend two years out of employment rather than three.
But anyway, why would it mean less money for unis even if you charge the same? They pay for only two years, but each year you get have the same number of students in, so the throughput is faster. Surely you would have just as many students at any one time, all paying the same as they do now?
Posted by Imaginary Friend (# 186) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
I think that the education sector ought to be very, very afraid.
Tell it to all the school leavers who, despite having perfectly good grades, won't get university places this year thanks to Labour cuts.
That's a rather narrow view of the education sector, don't you think?!
Personally, I'm far more worried that any person with a bee in their bonnet will be able to set up a school and indoctrinate children with whatever wacky, religiously-motived, racist* nonsense they want. Well, okay, that's rather hyperbolic, but Gove's ideas are emphatically not going to enhance equality of opportunity, but only cream off funding to a certain part of society.
* See from about 7"30 in the video
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Gildas:
So the British evangelical right are going to learn in short order what the American evangelical right have yet to notice. That their job is to deliver the maximum number of votes for the minimum number of concessions.
What evangelical right? Rumour hath it that Ms May is an Anglo-Catholic, of FiF persuasion.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by ken:
Rumour hath it that Ms May is an Anglo-Catholic, of FiF persuasion.
Really? I didn't know that. My very low view of her has risen somewhat.
Do you have any evidence of that at all?
Posted by Dinghy Sailor (# 8507) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Moth:
But anyway, why would it mean less money for unis even if you charge the same? They pay for only two years, but each year you get have the same number of students in, so the throughput is faster. Surely you would have just as many students at any one time, all paying the same as they do now?
This whole line of reasoning ignores the fact that universities aren't meant to be solely teaching institutions. If you grind the staff's noses to the lecture theatre wall all year round, they'll never get to do any research.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Dinghy Sailor:
quote:
Originally posted by Moth:
But anyway, why would it mean less money for unis even if you charge the same? They pay for only two years, but each year you get have the same number of students in, so the throughput is faster. Surely you would have just as many students at any one time, all paying the same as they do now?
This whole line of reasoning ignores the fact that universities aren't meant to be solely teaching institutions. If you grind the staff's noses to the lecture theatre wall all year round, they'll never get to do any research.
Isn't it time for universities to radically reconsider how they operate? Particularly, wouldn't it be better to have national examinations for BA and BSc degrees at least in mainstream subjects (Chemistry, English, French, Medicine, Nursing etc) supported by internet broadcast lectures by a single or perhaps a pair of lecturers for each course (i.e. two versions available) while the rest of the teaching staff are available to be consulted / run small seminars to deal with issues that the students are finding difficult. A bonus of this is that there would be an end to grade inflation as different universities compete standards down...
Posted by phil2357 (# 15431) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
Isn't it time for universities to radically reconsider how they operate? Particularly, wouldn't it be better to have national examinations for BA and BSc degrees at least in mainstream subjects (Chemistry, English, French, Medicine, Nursing etc)...
I would imagine Physics, Chemistry, Mathematics, etc. are vast areas of study with a multitude of possible undergraduate courses. You want national exams set for every possible course?
quote:
...supported by internet broadcast lectures by a single or perhaps a pair of lecturers for each course (i.e. two versions available)...
Hmmm... having sat through a few internet broadcast lectures, I think I prefer face-to-face lecturing.
quote:
...while the rest of the teaching staff are available to be consulted / run small seminars to deal with issues that the students are finding difficult.
What happens if a maths department has no one with training in Algebraic Number Theory? Would a student in that department still be able to take a course in the subject?
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Dinghy Sailor:
I only stopped hearing, "It's all the fault of the last Tory administration" a couple of years ago, and it's popped up once or twice since then. It's your turn now, so suck it up.
No.
I will suck it up when conservatives stop pretending that the world-wide economic crisis was all Gordon Brown’s fault. Whilst there is no doubt that the government could have regulated the banks more – it is ridiculous to hear this from the party that spend the entire decade complaining about over regulation.
I will suck it up when the conservatives stop lying about the national debt. They know it’s totally misleading they talking about ‘doubling the national debt.’ The classic cash fallacy. In the same terms the previous Conservative Government quadrupled the national debt. We have gone from one of the lowest national debts as a proportion of GDP to somewhere in the middle (Amongst the G8). Oh and which party opposed Gordon Brown in 2000 when he used the £22Bn from G3 mobile phone licences to pay off the national debt.
I will suck it up when the conservatives start telling the truth about the NHS improvements. Look at the King’s Fund reports for independent information.
I will suck it up when we have a Health Secretary who doesn’t say he wants to remove political interference from the NHS (I don’t know anyone who doesn’t think this is a good idea) and then say that he will create a special fund to pay for the cancer drugs that NICE have rejected because they don’t work very well.
I will suck it up when conservatives stop lying about Crime. The British Crime Survey shows actual crime at historically low levels. A rise in recorded crime is a good thing! I want to see recorded crime equal to the BCS levels. It’s very disappointing how poor the debate is. [If you want to say that crime is up, that’s clearly ridiculous – alternatively if you want to tell me that the government can’t take credit for the drop in car crime because better technology makes cars harder to break into, then I’m interested.]
I will suck it up when conservatives who think we’re soft on Asylum seekers go and spend some time in one of the camps and discover just how appalling things are for those fleeing persecution.
I will suck it when conservatives who think our immigration policy isn’t working actually talk to someone who’s been through the process and discover just how hard it is to get into Britain. I work with some doctors who were recruited from India because we needed them and still they had to wait 2 months to get their visas sorted.
I will suck it up when we have a Prime Minister who doesn’t say he wants a ‘new politics’ and at the same time introduced a bill to make a no-confidence vote need to be 55% making it impossible to remove him as Prime Minister.
Oh and I’d be more likely to suck it up if the previous Conservative government hadn’t blamed everything of the Labour Party of the 1970’s right up to 1997.
AFZ
Posted by phil2357 (# 15431) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
I will suck it up when we have a Prime Minister who doesn’t say he wants a ‘new politics’ and at the same time introduced a bill to make a no-confidence vote need to be 55% making it impossible to remove him as Prime Minister.
AIUI, Cameron would need 55% of Commons support to dissolve Parliament. Nothing to do with confidence motions. If a simple majority vote against the government on a confidence motion then a general election has to be called.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
Yes, the 55% thing is to stop the Tories being able to pull the plug on the coalition anytime they feel that it isn't going their way.
[ETA - And, AFZ, the massive deficit we have- and the resulting necessary painful cuts that we're now going to 'enjoy'- is largely Brown's fault, in that he ran up a pretty humungous deficit during the boom times, which left us with a large minus of sod all when the shit hit the fan.]
[ 14. May 2010, 08:23: Message edited by: Matt Black ]
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Yes, the 55% thing is to stop the Tories being able to pull the plug on the coalition anytime they feel that it isn't going their way.
No it's not. As Simon Hughes (LibDem) explained on Radio 5 Wed night it means that a simple majority of 326 would not be enough to bring down the government, i.e. If Cameron loses the support of the commons he can remain PM if his party wants him to... if the Tories had won only 40% of the seats would it be a 60% majority, I wonder?
[ETA - And, AFZ, the massive deficit we have- and the resulting necessary painful cuts that we're now going to 'enjoy'- is largely Brown's fault, in that he ran up a pretty humungous deficit during the boom times, which left us with a large minus of sod all when the shit hit the fan.] [/QB][/QUOTE]
Just coz you keep saying that, doesn't make it true. Show me the numbers!
AFZ
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
Er...other than Zog, which planet have you been living on?
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Er...other than Zog, which planet have you been living on?
Show me the numbers. They're all in the public domain.
AFZ
[ 14. May 2010, 08:43: Message edited by: alienfromzog ]
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
Particularly, wouldn't it be better to have national examinations for BA and BSc degrees at least in mainstream subjects (Chemistry, English, French, Medicine, Nursing etc) supported by internet broadcast lectures by a single or perhaps a pair of lecturers for each course (i.e. two versions available) while the rest of the teaching staff are available to be consulted / run small seminars to deal with issues that the students are finding difficult.
That's the Open University. You can join it any day you want. They are an excellent institution.
Meanwhile, back in the rest of the world, the national curriculum idea doesn't even work at secondary school level. The total field that needs to be taught in each subject is too big. If every one teaches to the same curriculum there will be large parts of each subject that are never taught. It is necessary that people learn different things from each other so that someone, somewhere, is studying each aspect of the subject.
That is so even in mainstream secondary school. There are things I was taught at O-level in history that no-one studies at school now in tis country. There are things I studied in biology at O-level that no-one studies at that level now in this country. (There were things we did at A-level that Americans don't even do in undergradiate degrees - one reason that this country to reprduce a cliche, still "punches above its weight" in scientific research)
Also diversity is strength. Certainly intellectual strength, and technological strength. Research, and development, asnd scholarship, need people who know all sorts of different things - if everyone works to a common curriculum as undergraduates then either we need to waste years of postgraduate education catching up and specialising (as already happens in medical education and in science in America) or else we import specialists and researchers from other countries (currently Britain *exports* higher education, both because our academics emigrate, and because people come from all over the world to study here - and part of the reason is the breadth and depth and diversity of our university system and we are already at risk of losing that as the accountants and the managers continue to take over)
Also many - probably most - university subjects involve disputes. Certainly the one I have studied most, biology. Even at A-level we often were told that some people think one thing and others another - and occasionally that the textbooks were wrong and know we knew better. By the time I got to university you could get a degree my merely reproducing what you were taught but to get a good degree you needed to be able to argue your case. (Trust me on this - I got a very bad degree the first time I did it then I went back years later & got a very good one so I know the difference!)
Anyway, if you have one curriculum you have one view of a subject. Or at best potted definitions of two or three standard party lines. What we need is university teachers who know their own specialistation in detail. One of the wonderful things about both the universities I have studied in is that I was taught by, and met, people who did real research. Scientists who knew more abut some tiny facet of the natural world than anyone else in the world. (Hey, there was even one little thing I found out that I suspect no-one else knew at the time)
The university system is also, among other things, a mechanism for communicating recent research to undergraduates. In the part-time degree I did between 1997 and 2004 in many of the course modules I did, for example in moecular biology, I wrote essays that had no references beore 1990 (not all of them - a couple of essays I did for palaeontology or the history of ecology had references from the 19th century). Some of the references were from papers published after I course started the course. Some of that works because the lecturers were keeping up with their own subject. No national curriculum can move fast enough for that.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by phil2357:
If a simple majority vote against the government on a confidence motion then a general election has to be called.
No - the government has to resign and someone else be given the chance to form a government. It is, for example, possible that enough by-elections will have occurred that a saner rainbow coalition would be able to form a majority. Personally I would much prefer the German constructive no confidence system - a new Chancellor must be elected to replace the one losing the no confidence motion - but that's too much to hope for.
As far as my comments about reforming universities are concerned: the same issues arise at the moment in terms of what any particular university can or can't offer based on what its staff know... I think the issue arises from the massive expansion of knowledge since the universities really got going in the 19th century; back than a three year course could realistically expect to cover ALL a subject in a way that is inconceivable these days. These days - not a chance. So my question is whether it makes any sense whatsoever for tens of universities all to have first year courses in Inorganic Chemistry, Nuclear Physics or Microeconomics or 19th century English Literature, all separately examined and marked to differing standards. Why not have a single curriculum, lecture course and exam on these basic components of a degree? Admittedly my experience of lectures at uni was that they were non-interactive - older guy walks in, talks for an hour and walks out with no expectation of questions. But the Open University model seems to work well - this is really an extension of that.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Er...other than Zog, which planet have you been living on?
Show me the numbers. They're all in the public domain.
AFZ
Would you accept them if I did?
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Would you accept them if I did?
Show me the numbers.
Then we can discuss, 'humongous' and structural deficit and national debt as a proportion of GDP and public sector investment and necessary public spending.
Or you could just restate your point endlessly.
AFZ
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
I cross posted with Ken's response... I see his point, but I suspect he is applying his biological and molecular biological perspective, where things were still moving in the 1990s, to subjects where things are now very set - at least at the 1st year undergraduate level. I write as someone who has done both a normal degree and some OU courses: there's plenty of space in the OU approach to develop the ability to argue the issues, and in the context of more online access to different points of view, this might be able to produce a viable option. I take his point about curriculum narrowing and accountants; there is a problem there...
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
Well,AFZ, here's a good starting point from the ONS - before the recession ie: in the boom times, government debt already exceeded 40% of GDP. Now, fiscal wisdom would say that one should in an ideal world be looking to accumulate a surplus in good economic times (like Mr Brown's much-vaunted 'war-chest' of c.2000 - I wonder what happened to that), not a debt, still less a whopping great 40% plus of GDP (which, incidentally, broke Gordon's own 'Golden Rule'), and that's before you even factor in so-called 'off balance' items like PFI...
Now, are you going to accept those figures or continue to deny the elephant in the drawing room and the consequent frightful prospect now facing this country?
[ 14. May 2010, 09:02: Message edited by: Matt Black ]
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Well,AFZ, here's a good starting point from the ONS
Yep, I've read that page too.
Have you looked at the longer trends? Up until 2008. The national debt as a proportion of GDP was lower every year than it was in 1996.
But that's not what you said, anyway. You told me that Brown ran 'humongous' deficits.
Try this page for starters, although it doesn't have the longer-term data. Table M7 is interesting; deficits as a proportion of GDP:
1994/5 - 6.6
1995/6 - 5.2
1996/7 - 3.9
1997/8 - -0.3
1998/9 - -1.2
1999/0 - -3.7
2000/1 - 0.3
2001/2 - 2.6
2002/3 - 3.3
2003/4 - 3.6
2004/5 - 3.1
2006/7 - 2.7
2007/8 - 2.8
2008/9 - 6.8
So which one is the humongous deficit prior to 2008/9?
AFZ
Posted by dyfrig (# 15) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Well,AFZ, here's a good starting point from the ONS - before the recession ie: in the boom times, government debt already exceeded 40% of GDP. Now, fiscal wisdom would say that one should in an ideal world be looking to accumulate a surplus in good economic times (like Mr Brown's much-vaunted 'war-chest' of c.2000 - I wonder what happened to that), not a debt, still less a whopping great 40% plus of GDP (which, incidentally, broke Gordon's own 'Golden Rule'), and that's before you even factor in so-called 'off balance' items like PFI...
The notes to this table state: "The Maastricht Treaty's Excessive Deficit Procedure sets deficit and debt targets of 3 per cent and 60 per cent respectively for all EU countries" (emphasis mine) The table shows that only in 2009 did the UK miss this target in the four years shown in the chart. So one man*'s humungus debt appears to be another's successfully staying well below the limit.
* and woman's, these days.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
But you're not comparing like with like; in the mid-1990s we were struggling to emerge from a recession so you would expect there to be a significant deficit and an increase in level of gvt debt proportionate to GDP. You don't expect that in a boom, still less gvt debt breaching the 40% mark - now that's what I call 'humungous'.
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
... before the recession ie: in the boom times, government debt already exceeded 40% of GDP.
I looked at an analysis that places today's public debt in historical perspective (by a lecturer in history); Chart 3 here appears to shows that the UK's debt in 2005, in the boom times, was broadly comparable to that of other industrialised nations - and even the 2010 position may not justify the current 'panic' headlines.
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
... Now, fiscal wisdom would say that one should in an ideal world be looking to accumulate a surplus in good economic times
When was the last time that a UK government achieved a surplus, rather than public debt? Charts 1 and 2 of the same paper cause me to wonder if any UK government has achieved this for a long time. I could be wrong - but you seem to want to hold a Labour government to a standard that no modern Conservative government (as far as I can tell) has achieved.
The conclusions of the paper that I linked to are worth a look:
"Four dangerous myths have gained a pernicious hold on public policy debate in the last few months. These are, firstly, that British public debt is at an unprecedented and unsustainable level. As we have seen, debt has been higher than its 2009 levels at many points during modern British history. The real 'lesson' we should take from British history is that public sector debt is now at levels that should elicit concern, but not panic. The second myth that must be challenged is that governments must slash spending, right away. Recent history repeatedly shows that the combination of background inflation, resurgent growth, tax rises and the establishment of a sound plateau for public spending are much more likely to be effective over the medium term. A third myth is the idea that the public finances are 'out of control', and particularly that the money borrowed has been wasted. On the contrary, there have undoubtedly been real and sustained improvements in public services, gains that should not now be thrown away with over-hasty cuts. Reducing the rate of public spending increases will, however, still be important over the next few years. But the fourth set of misconceptions, which leads politicians to feel the need to display an exaggerated 'toughness', are likely to frustrate rather than facilitate such efforts[...]."
An atmosphere of panic seems to be developing - and a feeling that 'something must be done, and this is something, therefore this must be done'. We've had similar panics before and the results were not encouraging. In the future, perhaps historians of the 21st century will see the coalition's deep cuts as an economic [url= http://'http://blogs.ft.com/ft-dot-comment/2010/03/09/barking-mad-government-takes-on-dog-owners/]dangerous dogs'[/url] measure?
Posted by dyfrig (# 15) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
But you're not comparing like with like; in the mid-1990s we were struggling to emerge from a recession so you would expect there to be a significant deficit and an increase in level of gvt debt proportionate to GDP. You don't expect that in a boom, still less gvt debt breaching the 40% mark - now that's what I call 'humungous'.
Why don't you expect in a boom? The EU target is 60% - that's considered, apparently, ok. This suggests to me (not being an economist) that national finance follow different patterns from what would be considered "normal" in private business.
There will always be, in complex modern societies where there is a general consensus that some element of wealth sharing goes on (either through welfare or healthcare or even through state educaiton) - this means that there will always be a national debt and a deficit because, like the NHS, a government will always be at odds with normal financial practice because there is a wider societal and communitarian point to its activities.
Now, there may well be an argument that government's ought to find mechanisms where they can better benefit from the boom times - although given that governments have very little real control over the whims of the unelected swarm mentality that is "the market", so it's a little churlsih to expect them to be able to do so - the table cited isn't it.
Posted by Jolly Jape (# 3296) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
But you're not comparing like with like; in the mid-1990s we were struggling to emerge from a recession so you would expect there to be a significant deficit and an increase in level of gvt debt proportionate to GDP. You don't expect that in a boom, still less gvt debt breaching the 40% mark - now that's what I call 'humungous'.
Matt, I seem to recall that you have a young family, and, I guess, unless you are very fortunate, a mortgage. Could I ask you to consider what proportion of your yearly income you owe to your lender? I'll bet a pound to a penny it's more than 68%. OK, 8% above the recommended Maastricht limit is not, strictly speaking, desirable, but neither is it disasterous. To paint the current economic situation as if it were a threat to the country on a par with WWII is just nonsense.
An, of course, you don't rectify fiscal deficits by cutting, or even by taxing (though the latter would, IMO, be preferable). These are mere tinkering around the edges. You remedy them by growing the economy.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
I think we (myself included) are in danger of conflating two discrete terms here: surplus/deficit and debt. The former is akin to a profit and loss account and relates to income -v- expenditure in a given fiscal year. The latter relates to the nation's balance sheet and is a measure of how much we owe overall. Thus, if there is a budget surplus, debt will go down, if there is a deficit, it will go up.
Now, Brown, back when he was cast in the role of Prudence some ten years ago, managed to achieve a surplus and thus reduce the government debt. But he then changed roles to Mr Big Spender after 2001 and, during the economic good times, consistently ran up deficits year on year, thus increasing the national debt until, even before the credit cruch hit in 2007, it had breached 40% which, by his own 'Golden Rule' (never mind about what the EU are now saying since such rules have had to be ripped up since the banking crisis), was an acknowledged Bad Thing™.
Posted by phil2357 (# 15431) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
No - the government has to resign and someone else be given the chance to form a government.
True.
quote:
So my question is whether it makes any sense whatsoever for tens of universities all to have first year courses in Inorganic Chemistry, Nuclear Physics or Microeconomics or 19th century English Literature, all separately examined and marked to differing standards.
I actually like the fact that universities teach to different standards. I like the fact that more able students are able to go to places like Oxford and Cambridge, and have more expected from them.
Maybe your suggestion would work well for subjects where students are undergoing professional training - Law, for example.
Posted by Mr. Spouse (# 3353) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by phil2357:
AIUI, Cameron would need 55% of Commons support to dissolve Parliament. Nothing to do with confidence motions. If a simple majority vote against the government on a confidence motion then a general election has to be called.
To have a general election, Parliament must be dissolved. Under current procedures this is achieved by a request from the PM for the Queen to issue a Royal Proclamation, or when 5 years have elapsed since the start of the current Parliament. The Prime Minister is not required to consult the House of Commons. By convention, the Prime Minister of any government losing a confidence vote would request that Parliament be dissolved - this last happened in 1979.
A 2007 Green Paper proposed that the House of Commons would have to approve any request for dissolution, but this never got beyond the consulation stage. So it looks like this 55% proposal is continuing the theme of Commons approval but making it harder to achieve. The opposition + Lib Dems could not get the required 358 votes to kick out the Tories without the help of rebels on the Conservative side.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
Thanks MB for clarifying the difference between the stock of debt and the flow adding to the stock of the deficit, a vital distinction. The issue is whether the course chosen by the government will be enough to ensure that the debt will stabilise or continue to creep upwards. The problem with quoting the deficit figures is that they ignore lots of items, such as PFI and unfunded public sector pensions, the cost of which are a drain on the future income of the government as much as any other form of spending. It's these hidden debts that are frightening the horses; this article suggesting they add 85% to the debt, i.e. raising it from 40 to 125% of GDP.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Moth:
But anyway, why would it mean less money for unis even if you charge the same? They pay for only two years, but each year you get have the same number of students in, so the throughput is faster. Surely you would have just as many students at any one time, all paying the same as they do now?
Say intakes are 1,000 per year, and fees are £3,000 per year. That means that with three-year programmes you have 3,000 students at the university in any one year (1,000 in their first year, 1,000 in their second year, 1,000 in their third year*), total fee income for the year £9,000,000.
Assuming the same intakes and fees, with two year programmes you only have 2,000 students at the university in any one year (1,000 in their first year, 1,000 in their second year*)and your total fee income for the year is £6,000,000.
Thus in the example above you lose £3,000,000 per year through changing to two-year programmes.
*= for these purposes, I'm assuming none of them drop out, default on their fees, have to resit a year, etc.
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
I think we (myself included) are in danger of conflating two discrete terms here: surplus/deficit and debt.
That's helpful, thank you.
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Now, Brown, back when he was cast in the role of Prudence some ten years ago, managed to achieve a surplus and thus reduce the government debt. But he then changed roles to Mr Big Spender after 2001 and, during the economic good times, consistently ran up deficits year on year ...
So you're arguing that Mr Brown should be blamed for his borrowing which made it more difficult for us to deal with the credit crunch and the recession.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies seem to suggest (p. 1) that Labour's shift from surplus to borrowing during economic good times 'remarkably similar' choices by the last Conservative Government:
"Over the first eleven years of Labour government, from 1997 to the eve of the financial crisis in 2007, the UK public finances followed a remarkably similar pattern to the first eleven years of the previous Conservative government, from 1979 to 1989. The first four saw the public sector move from deficit to surplus, while the following seven saw a move back into the red."
Also, the IFS seem to tell a different story about the period after 2001:
"By 2007 Labour had reduced public sector borrowing slightly below the level it inherited from the Conservatives. And more of that borrowing was being used to finance investment rather than the day-to-day running costs of the public sector."
Both the Conservatives and Labour have a history of borrowing during economic good times. This seems to suggest that a Conservative government, like Labour, would have borrowed during the good times of the 2000s. Unless you believe that the Conservatives would have prevented the credit crunch, our position now may not have been as different under them as the doomsayers seem to imply.
Posted by Spawn (# 4867) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alwyn:
An atmosphere of panic seems to be developing - and a feeling that 'something must be done, and this is something, therefore this must be done'. We've had similar panics before and the results were not encouraging. In the future, perhaps historians of the 21st century will see the coalition's deep cuts as an economic [url= http://'http://blogs.ft.com/ft-dot-comment/2010/03/09/barking-mad-government-takes-on-dog-owners/]dangerous dogs'[/url] measure?
The problem is that the size of the debt we have is because we have had an unprecedented growth in the public sector. In some parts of Britain we have almost Stalinist levels of a command and control economy. We might be able to afford this in good times (though the deficit we have built up during the past decade suggests we can't) but we certainly can't afford it in hard times.
More importantly, there should be no panic. Our current straitened times provide a perfect opportunity for the rebalancing of the economy. Creating the conditions for a flourishing private sector is the priority before substantial cuts to the public sector over the course of the Parliament. For Conservatives this is a fantastic opportunity rather than a panicky reaction to the circumstances. A decent Conservative Government would cut the public sector even during a boom period.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Mr. Spouse:
quote:
Originally posted by phil2357:
AIUI, Cameron would need 55% of Commons support to dissolve Parliament. Nothing to do with confidence motions. If a simple majority vote against the government on a confidence motion then a general election has to be called.
To have a general election, Parliament must be dissolved. Under current procedures this is achieved by a request from the PM for the Queen to issue a Royal Proclamation, or when 5 years have elapsed since the start of the current Parliament. The Prime Minister is not required to consult the House of Commons. By convention, the Prime Minister of any government losing a confidence vote would request that Parliament be dissolved - this last happened in 1979.
A 2007 Green Paper proposed that the House of Commons would have to approve any request for dissolution, but this never got beyond the consulation stage. So it looks like this 55% proposal is continuing the theme of Commons approval but making it harder to achieve. The opposition + Lib Dems could not get the required 358 votes to kick out the Tories without the help of rebels on the Conservative side.
It also means, importantly, that the Conservatives can't pull the plug unilaterally.
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
Yes Alwyn, I think we have to agree that both parties have an unfortunate propensity to overspend during periods of economic growth. What's important is that this time the lesson is learnt, and that there should be a significant commitment to resisting it this time round. Which means that everyone's pet idea for more government expenditure, however worthy, needs to be resisted unless they can prove it will save money in the long term. Let's seek the repentance, not persecution of the sinner...
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally quoted by Alwyn:
On the contrary, there have undoubtedly been real and sustained improvements in public services,
There have? Where?
Education still seems to be about the same as when I was at school.
Hospitals are still desperately underfunded.
The transport network is operating at or near capacity, and the creaks are getting louder.
Except weekend evenings outside city-centre pubs, you hardly ever see a police officer any more.
Seriously, where have these "undoubted" "real and sustained improvements" been made?
Posted by dyfrig (# 15) on
:
So if the No Confidence vote remains at 50% +1, it seems to me that the new 5% rule does two things:
1. In the absence of a No Confidence vote, the whole coalition (or at least Tories plus 51 Lib Dems) must vote for an early election. That sounds Good.
2. In the event of a No Confidence vote, which would mean a third pof the Lib Dems or a big chunk of Tories have lost confidence in the coalition, the government could still face a vote for dissolution. but could still defeat it if they managed 292; this would force it into having to fight every vote going forward individually - potentially allowing space for consensus building, but also potentially be a repeat of the end of the Major government, limping on propposed up by whoever they could do a deal with. This latter point is the disagreeable one, it seems (though, frankly, I'm of the view that if we're headed towards AV/PR and fixed parliaments, the executive could be allowed to carry on with the job in certain circumstances, even in a minority, but I think that's a miority view in itself - government is by the executive, after all, not the entire legislature, and other constitutions require a 60% rebellion in the legislature to topple the executive).
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
I think this could be the beginning of a drift towards separation of powers in our constitution...
Posted by Leprechaun (# 5408) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Mr. Spouse:
A 2007 Green Paper proposed that the House of Commons would have to approve any request for dissolution, but this never got beyond the consulation stage. So it looks like this 55% proposal is continuing the theme of Commons approval but making it harder to achieve. The opposition + Lib Dems could not get the required 358 votes to kick out the Tories without the help of rebels on the Conservative side.
But anyone can, if they wish, put down a motion of no confidence in the government which need only be won by one vote, which then gives someone else a chance to form a new government.
I personally don't think there's a sinister plot here. But someone does need to think through what happens if the government loses a vote of no confidence, there is too much chaos for anyone to form a government but 55% of MPs do not vote for a dissolution of Parliament.
ETA: cross posted with dyfrig who explained it better.
[ 14. May 2010, 11:02: Message edited by: Leprechaun ]
Posted by Mr. Spouse (# 3353) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Leprechaun:
I personally don't think there's a sinister plot here. But someone does need to think through what happens if the government loses a vote of no confidence, there is too much chaos for anyone to form a government but 55% of MPs do not vote for a dissolution of Parliament.
ETA: cross posted with dyfrig who explained it better.
It does seem a convenient co-incidence though that the highest percentage of non-Tory votes comes to 53%.
Dyfrig sums up the potential dilemma well. I forgot about the Major government that lost its majority but continued in power.
Posted by dyfrig (# 15) on
:
Interestingly, Scotland requires a 2/3rds majority for dissolution (hence being able to cope with a minority government) and, whilst weighted for obvious reasons t oesnure some semblence of cross-community consensus, so does Northern Ireland. Wales doesn't seem to have any powers at all to call elections out of synch, and of course the Executive committee of a local authority cannot call an election simply because it loses its majority in Council*. The possibility of minority governance does appear to be tolerated at pretty much every level of UK government.
* only an issue where the Council elected in total every four years.
However, I have moved slightly from the wild-eyed naivete of my previous post - I think the Tories are building in a fail safe mechanism based on current numbers, not just out of altruism. It works like this:
To approve the coalition, Clegg needed the backing of 75% of his 57 MPs - so 15 cold scupper it.
On the basis that the Speaker and Sinn Fein won't vote, a No Conf vote needs 324 to win - on current numbers (and assuming the Tories win Thirsk), this means 16 Lib Dems have to cross the floor. So in the event of a No Conf, the coalition is already over, but Cameron doesn't have to call an election.
Now, it may be that Cameron is an honourable person who acknowledges that his Royal mandate was given him on the basis that he could gather a coalition around him, and would quit anyway. In grown up, consensus politics land, this should be the proper outcome.
But it could also mean:
1. Cameron stays on, minority government continues.
2. Cameron quits but Tories refuse to lay dissolution bill or block an oppposition bill - feck knows what happens then.
3. Tories lay dissolution bill, but the opposition blocks it, forcing the Tories to compromise on the legislative agenda for the rest of the term - quite an attractive route for an opposition that isn't confident of getting a working majority, but wants to start looking like a party that can delivery before the next fixed election.
Ladies and gentlemen, please fasten yhour seatbelts.
[ 14. May 2010, 12:07: Message edited by: dyfrig ]
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by dyfrig:
Interestingly, Scotland requires a 2/3rds majority for dissolution (hence being able to cope with a jinority government) and, whilst weighted for obvious reasons t oesnure some semblence of cross-community consensus, so does Northern Ireland. Wales doesn't seem to have any powers at all to call elections out of synch, and of course the Executive committee of a local authority cannot call an election simply because it loses its majority in Council*. The possibility of minority governance does appear to be tolerated at pretty much every level of UK government.
* only an issue where the Council elected in total every four years.
It seems to me that AMs, MSPs and local councillors can handle this alleged dilemma. Perhaps the reality is some traditionalist Tories don't want to understand, Labour is making capital of it (as they are entitled to do) but I am surprised that otherwise knowledgeable political commentators are getting the issues confused, as I am sure that a successful motion of no confidence tabled by the opposion forces the PM to ask for a dissolution.
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
I think we (myself included) are in danger of conflating two discrete terms here: surplus/deficit and debt. The former is akin to a profit and loss account and relates to income -v- expenditure in a given fiscal year. The latter relates to the nation's balance sheet and is a measure of how much we owe overall. Thus, if there is a budget surplus, debt will go down, if there is a deficit, it will go up.
Now, Brown, back when he was cast in the role of Prudence some ten years ago, managed to achieve a surplus and thus reduce the government debt. But he then changed roles to Mr Big Spender after 2001 and, during the economic good times, consistently ran up deficits year on year, thus increasing the national debt until, even before the credit cruch hit in 2007, it had breached 40% which, by his own 'Golden Rule' (never mind about what the EU are now saying since such rules have had to be ripped up since the banking crisis), was an acknowledged Bad Thing™.
Sorry Matt, I wasn't confusing the two - part of the reason for my determination in my posts. Government debt is a complex issue and I don't think you'll find any economist who thinks we should run at zero debt for lots of reasons.
The 'Golden Rule' was about borrowing to invest. Which is undeniably a sensible rule. History will judge to what extent this was acheived.
Part of my annoyance is that there has been no post-war government who didn't run deficits of some description since WWII - this idea that Brown is somehow different from all the others and a Conservative government would not have had a similar structural deficit does not fit with historical experince. Tory governments simply have not done this. Which comes back to my earlier point that the idea that the economic situation is all Brown's fault is not substainable.
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally quoted by Alwyn:
On the contrary, there have undoubtedly been real and sustained improvements in public services,
There have? Where?
Education still seems to be about the same as when I was at school.
Hospitals are still desperately underfunded.
The transport network is operating at or near capacity, and the creaks are getting louder.
Except weekend evenings outside city-centre pubs, you hardly ever see a police officer any more.
Seriously, where have these "undoubted" "real and sustained improvements" been made?
Really, Try
Crime: The British Crime Survey
NHS: The King's Fund
It's just not true to say there haven't been improvements.
AFZ
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
:
I'm not surprised at the degree of confusion about this dissolution / no-confidence / minority government thing: thanks to the likes of Hennesy and Bogdangor, we are not a constitutionally literate people, and all this "jiggery-pokery" is new territory for most of us.
However, some clarification might be in order.
Firstly, as some people have already pointed out, there is a big difference between dissolving the House of Commons and passing a vote of no-confidence in the Government. One results in new elections. The other in the resignation of the Government or, until now, new elections. Fixed term Parliaments mean that the Government cannot just call an election when it wants to in the interests of party advantage (a good thing) and removes much of the uncertainty (will he, won't he) surrounding the Prime Minister's power to dissolve at the time of his choosing. But it does more than that. Crucially, it breaks the automatic link between a vote of no-confidence and a dissolution. In other words, an ordinary majority might pass a vote of no-confidence in the Government, and then the Government would no longer have a choice between resignation and dissolution; instead, it would have to resign. It would then be up to the parties to form a new Government within the existing House of Commons which could be (at least) tolerated by the majority. Only if such an alternative Government were impossible to form, would the parties then agree to pass a resolution (by a 55% vote) to dissolve. That is actually a big step forward for parliamentary, as opposed to Prime Ministerial government, since it removes one of the most potent threats which the PM can wield over backbenchers.
In part, the need for this stems from the nature of the coalition agreement: a coalition with a man who has a sole and arbitrary power to dissolve the House of Commons at will would be a very dangerous prospect for the LibDems. However, it also, and more deeply, stems from the ambiguity surrounding the role and function of the Queen in our (non-existent, or invisible) constitution. Some argue that the Queen has a right to refuse dissolution, and could legitimately do so if, following a vote of no-confidence, an alternative Government could be formed without a general election. The President of Ireland is explicitly granted this sort of discretion, and Ireland is able to combine the roles of non-political figurehead and "impartial arbiter" in the hands of the President.
quote:
- Constitution of Ireland (Irish terms translated into English).
1° The Chamber of Deputies shall be summoned and dissolved by the President on the advice of the Prime Minister.
2° The President may in his absolute discretion refuse to
dissolve the Chamber of Deputies on the advice of a Prime Minister who has ceased to retain the support of a majority in the Chamber of Deputies.
In the UK, where nothing is ever explicit, the dual role of the Queen seems to have slowly atrophied. The desire to "keep the Queen out of politics", which was so clearly manifested during the coalition negotiations, means that her power to refuse a dissolution (at least in public) is now, at best, highly contentious and possibly non-existent. A 55% majority rule is a good way of protecting the House of Commons, and the future of coalition government, from the rash acts of the Prime Minister, without brining the Queen into it. That should please but liberals and conservatives!
That said, I do think the proposal as currently articulated (the detailed plans may be different) have a regrettable omission: they would allow a minority to logjam the political system indefinitely if, following a vote of no-confidence, it were not possible either to form an alternative Government in the existing House of Commons or to muster the majority necessary for a dissolution. It could open the door to opportunist obstruction. The way around this would be to introduce a time-limit clause, so that if, following a vote of no-confidence, an alternative Government has not been appointed within, say, 30 days, then the Speaker would be able to request (i.e. order) an extraordinary dissolution.
The Scotland Act allows an extraordinary dissolution in two circumstances:
quote:
(a) {If} the Parliament resolves that it should be dissolved and, if the resolution is passed on a division, the number of members voting in favour of it is not less than two-thirds of the total number of seats for members of the Parliament, or
(b) {If} any period during which the Parliament is required under section 46 to nominate one of its members for appointment as First Minister ends without such a nomination being made.
It's a good system. They should try it.
Finally, there has been a lot of nonsense written on certain blogs about how this would be "unconstitutional". Nonsense. Perhaps the only advantage of not having a proper constitution is that this sort of change cannot be unconstitutional. Also, a vote of the House of Commons calling for a dissolution (and no such vote has been passed since the 1650s, I'm sure) by an ordinary majority would not, as some are suggesting, be a "sovereign" decision of Parliament: Parliamentary Sovereignty (to which I am in any case opposed, but that's irrelevant right now) applies only to an ACT of Parliament, not to every resolution passed by the Commons.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
Really, Try
Crime: The British Crime Survey
NHS: The King's Fund
It's just not true to say there haven't been improvements.
The first link says plenty about the BCS, but nothing about crime itself. Besides which, a decrease in crime (if that was what you meant) cannot be laid at any government's door, as it simply means less people are committing crimes. Governments can affect crime reporting and the rate of successful prosecutions, but not the rate at which people actually decide to break the law.
The second link makes a big thing of health trust accountability to parliament being a major improvement. May I respectfully suggest that, as a measure of actual healthcare improvement, that is bullshit. Wooo, they increased red tape! I don't care how accountable my health trust is, I care only that they do a good job of fixing what's wrong with me. It also makes a big thing of the reduction in smoking, which isn't exactly a healthcare issue either. Given that healthcare expenditure has doubled since 1997 (fact taken from the link itself), I'd expect to see some far more tangible improvements.
Posted by Nightlamp (# 266) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by dyfrig:
[QUOTE] this means that there will always be a national debt and a deficit because, like the NHS, a government will always be at odds with normal financial practice because there is a wider societal and communitarian point to its activities.
That is a very dubious 'always'
Labour following the previous conservative Government spanding plans managed to have a surplus at the turn of the century. It was in about 2001 that Brown decided to throw Keynes away and spend in the boom or did Brown really believe he had ended 'boom and bust'?
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
The first link says plenty about the BCS, but nothing about crime itself. Besides which, a decrease in crime (if that was what you meant) cannot be laid at any government's door, as it simply means less people are committing crimes. Governments can affect crime reporting and the rate of successful prosecutions, but not the rate at which people actually decide to break the law.
Really? So rehabilitation, deterrance, effective policing have nothing to do with government policy? Oh dear, that's the worst argument I've heard for a long time.
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
The second link makes a big thing of health trust accountability to parliament being a major improvement. May I respectfully suggest that, as a measure of actual healthcare improvement, that is bullshit. Wooo, they increased red tape! I don't care how accountable my health trust is, I care only that they do a good job of fixing what's wrong with me. It also makes a big thing of the reduction in smoking, which isn't exactly a healthcare issue either. Given that healthcare expenditure has doubled since 1997 (fact taken from the link itself), I'd expect to see some far more tangible improvements.
Accountability is actually vital. No one would dispute that if this is overly bureacratic then it becomes cumbersome and problematic however that completely misses the point, let me quote the summary;
quote:
There is no doubt that there has been considerable progress in the last 13 years. The NHS is now high performing in several respects and is delivering more care to more people more quickly.
A number of important achievements are highlighted, including major reductions in waiting times and rates of health care associated infections and progress in reducing smoking rates. There has been a concerted effort to implement national standards of care for major diseases across the NHS which has contributed to the continued falls in deaths from cancer and cardiovascular disease.
AFZ
Posted by Jengie Jon (# 273) on
:
Since when has reduction in people smoking not been a healthcare issue. It falls into the same healthcare bracket as clean water, decent cheap food availability* and encouraging exercise i.e. preventative healthcare rather than curative. I believe that prevention is normally cheaper than curative.
Jengie
*Doesn't mean all food needs to be cheap and available just that there should be enough range that is so as to have a healthy diet.
Posted by dyfrig (# 15) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
That is a very dubious 'always'
Labour following the previous conservative Government spanding plans managed to have a surplus at the turn of the century.
Fair comment as for deficit.
It was in about 2001 that Brown decided to throw Keynes away and spend in the boom or did Brown really believe he had ended 'boom and bust'?
Maybe he did.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
Really? So rehabilitation, deterrance, effective policing have nothing to do with government policy? Oh dear, that's the worst argument I've heard for a long time.
Reoffending rates have increased steadily since 2006. link. No credit to the government here.
As for deterrence, punishments have got so lax now as to hardly offer any deterrence at all. How many burglars see jail time?
Effective policing can improve detection and prosecution rates, but doesn't do much for the rate of crimes committed unless there's actually a policeman around just as the crime is about to be committed. And with the amount of police time that's now spent at a desk rather than on the beat, that likelihood has decreased.
quote:
Accountability is actually vital. No one would dispute that if this is overly bureacratic then it becomes cumbersome and problematic however that completely misses the point,
"Accountability" is just a buzzword for more targets and league tables that help no-one and take vital resources away from front line care and into desk jobs.
quote:
let me quote the summary;
quote:
There is no doubt that there has been considerable progress in the last 13 years. The NHS is now high performing in several respects and is delivering more care to more people more quickly.
A number of important achievements are highlighted, including major reductions in waiting times and rates of health care associated infections and progress in reducing smoking rates. There has been a concerted effort to implement national standards of care for major diseases across the NHS which has contributed to the continued falls in deaths from cancer and cardiovascular disease.
Waiting time reductions are good, if they're being achieved by actually seeing patients sooner. If they're being achieved by an accountant's trick like not putting troublesome patients on lists in the first place, or by seeing them briefly then leaving them to wait (off the record) for weeks, it's less so.
Healthcare associated infections being reduced is great, but how much does it actually cost to get everyone to wash their freakin' hands on a regular basis?
And again, reducing smoking rates isn't a healthcare issue.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jengie Jon:
Since when has reduction in people smoking not been a healthcare issue.
I'd define improvements in healthcare as stuff like more hospitals, more beds, more nurses, more doctors, more physios. Instead we have these nebulous "improvements" being touted around (with the associated increase in administration and bureacracy, of course) while actual front-line provision is falling. Wards are closing. Beds are being lost. And you want me to be happy because the government puts up a few posters about not smoking?
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
I'd define improvements in healthcare as stuff like ... more nurses, more doctors ...
In 1996, the NHS had 515,000 doctors and 319,000 nurses.
In 2006, the NHS had 675,000 doctors and 398,000 nurses. (NHS Information Centre)
Posted by Moth (# 2589) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
As for deterrence, punishments have got so lax now as to hardly offer any deterrence at all. How many burglars see jail time?
Effective policing can improve detection and prosecution rates, but doesn't do much for the rate of crimes committed unless there's actually a policeman around just as the crime is about to be committed. And with the amount of police time that's now spent at a desk rather than on the beat, that likelihood has decreased.
The last government introduced more legislation on crime than any other government, ever, and all of it pusing the balance more in favour of the prosecution and less in favour of the criminal. To get an ASBO, you don't even have to have committed a crime - it's all done through a civil process. We are not soft on crime in this country, and never have been compared to the rest of Europe.
As for 'a policeman around just as the crime is about to be committed' that's what intelligence led policing is all about, and why it's successful. You won't see a policeman walking your peaceful street - he'll be where the action is taking place. Yes, there's paperwork - would you prefer people to be convicted without a proper record of evidence? There will never be enough policemen to stand one on every street corner, and frankly I don't care if I never see one again, so long as the crime rate keeps falling.
[ 14. May 2010, 14:18: Message edited by: Moth ]
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
I'd define improvements in healthcare as stuff like more hospitals, more beds, more nurses, more doctors, more physios. Instead we have these nebulous "improvements" being touted around (with the associated increase in administration and bureacracy, of course) while actual front-line provision is falling. Wards are closing. Beds are being lost. And you want me to be happy because the government puts up a few posters about not smoking?
You really don't know what you're talking about do you?
Number of Nurses in England in 1999 - 261,340 (Whole-time equivelent): 2009 - 336,007
Number of doctors 1999 - 88,693: 2009 132,683
(managers and senior managers 23,378 / 42, 509
The perceptages are also quite revealing;
Nurses in 1999 made up 30% of all NHS staff and 29% in 2009. Doctors 10% in 1999 and 11% in 2009 and managers have masssive increased from 3% to 4%.
Now it is true that the total number of NHS beds has reduced since 1997. However that is part of a much longer-term trend. There are a lot fewer hospital beds because we don't need as many. Hospital stays are now much shorter than they used to be. Historically patients undergoing a mastectomy would go home after 7 days. The median is now 3 days (1 in some hospitals). Similarly after major bowel surgery we used to keep patients starved for days and slowly build them up. Now most patients beginning eating within 24 hours of surgery and often go home within 2-3 days.
So which part of the past 13 years are you objecting to?
The biggest hospital building program in the NHS's history?
The increase in nursing staff?
The increase in doctors?
The increase in physios?
The improvement in health outcomes by (virtually) every measure?
The only bit of your rant that's true is the reduction in bed numbers but that's not really relevant.
Oh and public health measures like stopping people smoking are astoundingly cost-effective.
AFZ
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alwyn:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
I'd define improvements in healthcare as stuff like ... more nurses, more doctors ...
In 1996, the NHS had 515,000 doctors and 319,000 nurses.
In 2006, the NHS had 675,000 doctors and 398,000 nurses. (NHS Information Centre)
Alwyn those figures aren't quite right - you were reading the wrong row!
See my previous post!
(Same source)
AFZ
Posted by Pottage (# 9529) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alwyn:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
I'd define improvements in healthcare as stuff like ... more nurses, more doctors ...
In 1996, the NHS had 515,000 doctors and 319,000 nurses.
In 2006, the NHS had 675,000 doctors and 398,000 nurses. (NHS Information Centre)
Wow, that would really have been something. A doctor on every street corner anyway, even if no policeman. But in fact the figures for doctors were 87,000 rising to 126,000.
I'd be interested in seeing how NHS doctors' salaries have risen over that time frame too if anyone has the stats. The common assertion is that the NHS now showers gold on doctors, and that this is where most of the huge extra investment has gone. I've no idea if that's true (though my GP does seem to have a new car every time I see him).
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Pottage:
But in fact the figures for doctors were 87,000 rising to 126,000.
Indeed! My bad. Clearly I didn't know what I was talking about. Thank you for posting the accurate figure.
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Pottage:
I'd be interested in seeing how NHS doctors' salaries have risen over that time frame too if anyone has the stats. The common assertion is that the NHS now showers gold on doctors, and that this is where most of the huge extra investment has gone. I've no idea if that's true (though my GP does seem to have a new car every time I see him).
Doctor's pay
Doctor's pay is quite complex because the out-of-hours pay is on-top of a basic salary. Those figures are based on a significant out-of-hours workload including night shifts.
If you want the figures for pre-1997, I'll have to dig around a bit.
I would never complain about my salary - I earn more than enough to live on but consider this, if I take out your appendix, in effect I get paid £8 (Before tax). (My basic salary is just over £16/hour and a straight-forward appendicectomy takes 25-30 minutes). I don't feel showered with gold. Especially as I'll be paying off my student loans for a least another 5 years.
Similarly nursing pay has been increased significantly but it's far from a King's ransom. Nursing Pay Rates 2010 A 'Band 4' is a qualified nurse (1-3 are healthcare assistance or anxially nurses). Most staff nurses on a ward would be either Band 4 or 5.
AFZ
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
The joker in the claims about falling crime figures is the continuing increase in (occupied) prison places; if
a) Crime is falling
b) The courts are not punishing harshly enough
then c) Rising prison population is not the expected outcome...
Posted by Pottage (# 9529) on
:
I'm a bloodsucking lawyer so I'm not about to complain about the salary earned by doctors. But that page only tells me what doctors tend to earn on average recently (as from April 2009). I was interested to know how much that has increased (in proportionate terms rather than absolute cash terms) over the period when the NHS got a large infusion of treasure. As I say, the common perception is that far too much of the increased investment has gone either to employ tens of thousand sof extra bureaucrats, or to enable every doctor to have his own yacht. I've absolutely no idea how close to the mark that sort of criticism really is.
Posted by Inger (# 15285) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Waiting time reductions are good, if they're being achieved by actually seeing patients sooner. If they're being achieved by an accountant's trick like not putting troublesome patients on lists in the first place, or by seeing them briefly then leaving them to wait (off the record) for weeks, it's less so.
I can only speak as an ordinary user of the NHS.
In the (bad) old days, my doctor might decide a non-urgent x-ray was advisable. I'd go home, and after perhaps a month I'd get a letter from the hospital, making an appointment in a month's time or so. If I was lucky, and it wasn't cancelled and postponed, I'd go along to the hospital, where with various waits I'd spend half a day.
Now, when the same happens, my doctor will give me a slip of paper with a phone number on it. I'll ring up and ask for an appointment. "Can you come in next Monday at 10?" which I accept. When I arrive, I'll be seen usually within ten minutes.
The NHS as far as I'm concerned has improved out of all recognition in the last few years.
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Pottage:
I'm a bloodsucking lawyer so I'm not about to complain about the salary earned by doctors. But that page only tells me what doctors tend to earn on average recently (as from April 2009). I was interested to know how much that has increased (in proportionate terms rather than absolute cash terms) over the period when the NHS got a large infusion of treasure. As I say, the common perception is that far too much of the increased investment has gone either to employ tens of thousand sof extra bureaucrats, or to enable every doctor to have his own yacht. I've absolutely no idea how close to the mark that sort of criticism really is.
Try this: King's Fund
The graph near the bottom is the change in pay in real terms. Everyone in the health service has had a real increase in pay. Managers less than the rest of us and consultants the most.
I hadn't realised how much of an increase there has been in consultant pay.
AFZ
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
You really don't know what you're talking about do you?
My wife is a physiotherapist in a big-city hospital. I am regaled daily with tales of how they don't have enough beds, how short-staffed they are, and how they are pressured to discharge patients before they're ready to be discharged so that targets can be kept to.
Frankly, I want to know where all those extra staff you mention are, coz despite the need they ain't round here.
quote:
Now it is true that the total number of NHS beds has reduced since 1997. However that is part of a much longer-term trend. There are a lot fewer hospital beds because we don't need as many. Hospital stays are now much shorter than they used to be.
Which ties in with what I'm told about there being pressure to discharge patients before they're ready.
quote:
So which part of the past 13 years are you objecting to?
The biggest hospital building program in the NHS's history?
Are they new hospitals, or replacements for existing ones? I mean, we've got a completely new hospital nearly finished round here, but it's replacing two previously existing ones...
quote:
The increase in nursing staff?
The increase in doctors?
The increase in physios?
Well, like I said they ain't round here. My wife had to wait two years to get a job after graduating, because they were only hiring on a "one out, one in" basis.
quote:
The improvement in health outcomes by (virtually) every measure?
Measures such as? And to what extent are they the result of government policy as opposed to the general increase in standard of living and advances made by medical science?
quote:
The only bit of your rant that's true is the reduction in bed numbers but that's not really relevant.
It is if you're one of the people that needs one.
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
You really don't know what you're talking about do you?
My wife is a physiotherapist in a big-city hospital. I am regaled daily with tales of how they don't have enough beds, how short-staffed they are, and how they are pressured to discharge patients before they're ready to be discharged so that targets can be kept to.
Frankly, I want to know where all those extra staff you mention are, coz despite the need they ain't round here.
quote:
Now it is true that the total number of NHS beds has reduced since 1997. However that is part of a much longer-term trend. There are a lot fewer hospital beds because we don't need as many. Hospital stays are now much shorter than they used to be.
Which ties in with what I'm told about there being pressure to discharge patients before they're ready.
quote:
So which part of the past 13 years are you objecting to?
The biggest hospital building program in the NHS's history?
Are they new hospitals, or replacements for existing ones? I mean, we've got a completely new hospital nearly finished round here, but it's replacing two previously existing ones...
quote:
The increase in nursing staff?
The increase in doctors?
The increase in physios?
Well, like I said they ain't round here. My wife had to wait two years to get a job after graduating, because they were only hiring on a "one out, one in" basis.
quote:
The improvement in health outcomes by (virtually) every measure?
Measures such as? And to what extent are they the result of government policy as opposed to the general increase in standard of living and advances made by medical science?
quote:
The only bit of your rant that's true is the reduction in bed numbers but that's not really relevant.
It is if you're one of the people that needs one.
I'm sorry but you defined improvements as 'more doctors, more nurses and more physios'
The figures clearly show that this has occured.
If you're trying to tell me that more needs to be done, I wouldn't disagree, but that's not what you said.
Number of beds needed is a complicated question - falling numbers is not necessarily a problem - we do genuinely need less beds than we had 20 years ago, I would personally argue that we don't have enough - but the simple trend of falling numbers doesn't in itself prove anything.
In terms of healthcare outcomes, try this: National Audit Office Report on NHS England
No one ever said the NHS was perfect. It's just your claim that it hasn't improved is ridiculous.
AFZ
Posted by dyfrig (# 15) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Now it is true that the total number of NHS beds has reduced since 1997. However that is part of a much longer-term trend. There are a lot fewer hospital beds because we don't need as many. Hospital stays are now much shorter than they used to be.
Which ties in with what I'm told about there being pressure to discharge patients before they're ready.
Now, see, this is where your general cynical air becomes rather tiresome. It fails to engage with the point that ways of treatment have actually changed reducing the actual overall need for beds.
This does not deny that some targets do create a hideous statistical feedback loop (my old GP wouldn't let you make an appointment more than 48 hours in advance, because the target was that no-one should wait more than 48 hours - you have to admire the chutzpah, at least), but to fail to grasp that the measure of the success of a health service cannot be boiled down to one statistic and divorce health care form wider policies is ludicrous.
In reality, a government should be aiming to have very few beds in use because other policies - on smoking drinking, eating, etc - create a culture in which people take a little more care of themselves and don't need to go to hospital as much. Developing a TB vaccine was a much better way of dealing with the cost of TB clinics than making more bes available in them.
Posted by Pottage (# 9529) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
Try this: King's Fund
The graph near the bottom is the change in pay in real terms. Everyone in the health service has had a real increase in pay. Managers less than the rest of us and consultants the most.
I hadn't realised how much of an increase there has been in consultant pay.
Thanks. I can see how critics of the (outgoing) government can argue that a lot of investment money has gone into lining pockets rather than refurbishing wards. Surely under no administration, but least of all under a Labour one, would it seem right that (for example):
all the medical staff who were the most highly paid in the first place should be gifted real terms increases of >180% (against an average for the NHS of around 20%) or that
the number of very senior managers should increase by 82% and the number of non-senior admin people (but who nevertheless could be earning anything up to £97,000) should increase by 61%.
I hasten to say that I'm not disputing the increased investment in the NHS hasn't also resulted in more doctors and nurses than there used to be, to improvements in the quality of NHS premises and so forth. But even looking at these very basic statistics it's clear that a lot of the additional investment has been spent less prudently than many tax payers would have hoped for.
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Pottage:
Thanks. I can see how critics of the (outgoing) government can argue that a lot of investment money has gone into lining pockets rather than refurbishing wards. Surely under no administration, but least of all under a Labour one, would it seem right that (for example):
all the medical staff who were the most highly paid in the first place should be gifted real terms increases of >180% (against an average for the NHS of around 20%) or that
the number of very senior managers should increase by 82% and the number of non-senior admin people (but who nevertheless could be earning anything up to £97,000) should increase by 61%.
Maybe. The issue of management in the NHS is a complicated one. Firstly the number of managers has increased from ~3% of all NHS staff to ~4%. Which, I am told (I don't know) is still very low for a large, complex organisation.
A good manager earns their salary in the sense that good management will produce productivity (how-the-hell you actually measure that in healthcare is a different question).
The Consultant's salary is an interesting one - I need to look at the data properly. It may be the case that the massive increase is due to the fact that consultants now do more 'sessions' for the NHS and thus it's not really comparing like-with-like. I'll need to look into it.
Of course, as you said, that's off-the-point a little - the idea that there has been no improvement is ludicrous.
AFZ
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
I'll have another go . Marvin the Martian said that improvements in health care could be shown by (among other things) more front line staff. Does that test for improvement also apply to teachers and police officers?
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Education still seems to be about the same as when I was at school.
This graph appears to suggest that the number of teachers fell under the last Conservative Government and rose under Labour. They say "There were 12,000 more teachers in schools in the UK in 2004/05 than there were in 1997/98. This followed a fall between 1981/82 and 1997/98 from 493,000 to 429,000."
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Hospitals are still desperately underfunded..
It seems that the NHS has more nurses and doctors, even though I got the numbers wrong before.
Are hospitals underfunded? Of course they could use more funds and there are problems. Funding does appear to have risen. For example, in England from 1997/98 to 2007/08, real-terms expenditure on the NHS rose by 82%. A graph on p. 4 (of this document) seems to show that NHS spending (in England, as a percentage of GDP) fell at times under the Conservatives but rose under Labour.
You also mentioned transport and the police. I won't deny that there are real problems with transport. Apparently "the number of police officers reached an all-time high of 142,151 in 2009 - 15,337 higher than a decade ago".
Is there waste and do some public sector workers have too much paperwork? Almost certainly. However, we have more teachers, more doctors and nurses and more police officers than we did before. So there does seem to be some evidence of improvements from public spending since 1997, doesn't there?
Posted by leo (# 1458) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally quoted by Alwyn:
On the contrary, there have undoubtedly been real and sustained improvements in public services,
There have? Where?
Education still seems to be about the same as when I was at school.....Seriously, where have these "undoubted" "real and sustained improvements" been made?
In the employment of teaching assistants and giving teachers preparation time in primary schools and guaranteed free periods in secondary schools under the 'rarely cover' scheme.
This has meant that teachers can get on with teaching and learning activities instead of spending hours photocopying, putting up wall displays and so on.
It also means that most class sizes are effectively halved because there are two adults in every class so that pupils with special needs get close attention and the other teacher is freed up to help the others ion the class.
Posted by leo (# 1458) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
A lot of leo's bile suggests that he's been out in the spring sunshine for too long. I don't really understand his thing about IVF, though. Is his complaint that the Conservative party isn't funding it for certain people?
I've never really thought that people have the right to a child and certainly don't have a right for the state to help them have a child. A lot of people may well disagree with that view but I don't see how a belief that the state shouldn't pay for IVF is 'Christian' or 'un-Christian'.
I was not saying that IVF was a human rights issue.
I cited IVF and human rights as two separate issues.
Today's Daily Telegraph backs me up - my original statement that Cameron isn't interested in human rights was not about IVF or gays in Lithuania.
Thanks to Ken Clarke, whom I have always liked, even when he savaged education, Cameron's lack of concern for human rights won't become law.
'A Conservative pledge to rip up the Human Rights Act has been kicked into the long grass after Kenneth Clarke, the new Justice Secretary, signalled it was not a priority. '
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/conservative/7721590/Coalition-government-Conservatives-drop-plans-to-scr ap-European-Human-Rights-Act.html
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
Part of the problem in evaluating claims re the NHS is the confusion of units of measurement:- increase in funding
- increase in funding "in real terms"
- increase in absolute numbers of staff group
- increase in percentage of staff group
- ratio of staff group to population
- increase in wages absolute
- increase in wages in percentage terms
- increase in wages above inflation
It is worth being cautious about statements about the number of NHS managers, certainly when Unison makes statements of that kind - they mean all staff on a Band 7 salary or above, regardless of their actual role. However, not all staff on that pay grade are managers many thousands of them are clinicians.
Consultant salaries, and GP partner salaries are the ones where it seemed to go wrong. Basically, I think, like most other healthcare workers doctors should be salaried. With overtime, unsocial hours and on-call pay as appropriate.
I do not think doctors should be paid for carrying out specific parts of their role - eg physical health review for each patient with a mental health problem once a year. Or meeting a target for performance. CPNs don't get an extra payment because they meet a target that 90% of patients should have a careplan updated within the previous 12mths - they are just expected to do it because it is part of their job. GP partner and consultant pay jumped because targeted pay was included - this was a mistake and it should be corrected when the contracts are renegotiated.
Posted by Pottage (# 9529) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
Of course, as you said, that's off-the-point a little - the idea that there has been no improvement is ludicrous.
AFZ
If I gave that impression I'm sorry - I didn't mean to imply that the NHS headcount and and salary statistics are entirely off the point. Whilst I would agree that there have been improvements in the NHS in the last decade or so that's not the same as accepting that the improvements have come at a sensible cost or have been wisely created, or that the improvements can be sustained.
The exact extent of the NHS's funding bonanza is hard to pin down exactly despite the vast quantity of statistics available (and previously there has been a lot of underinvestment of course). But candidly if you threw an increase in funding of (say) inflation+80% at absolutely any business or organisation it would perform better. The questions are:
could the same improvements have been achieved without such vast expense?
could more improvements have been expected for that sort of cost?
and given that such largesse isn't going to be sustainable will the improvements that have been made be lost when the river of taxpayers' gold runs dry?
Posted by Jolly Jape (# 3296) on
:
quote:
originally posted by pottage
..could the same improvements have been achieved without such vast expense?
Well, since every other developed country pays more per capita than we do, (Cost per capita in Japan is similar) for similar clinical outcomes, we can, I think, conclude that if there is a way to do what you suggest, no-one has found it yet.
I'm sure there has been an element of "let's fix the health service by throwing money at it" over the past thirteen years, but when most of the problems were caused by chronic underfunding, that does not seem that unreasonable an approach.
Posted by Sleepwalker (# 15343) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
Today's Daily Telegraph backs me up - my original statement that Cameron isn't interested in human rights
Rubbish. The concern was with the European Human Rights Act, not with human rights. As the article also says:
The Tories have proposed a Bill of Rights that would still protect fundamental liberties but would be harder to use inappropriately.
That sounds like a good idea to me.
While 'tearing up' the European Human Rights Act might have gone on the back burner, as part of the coalition agreement, that does not mean to say it has gone.
Posted by Pottage (# 9529) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jolly Jape:
quote:
originally posted by pottage
..could the same improvements have been achieved without such vast expense?
Well, since every other developed country pays more per capita than we do, (Cost per capita in Japan is similar) for similar clinical outcomes, we can, I think, conclude that if there is a way to do what you suggest, no-one has found it yet.
I'm sure there has been an element of "let's fix the health service by throwing money at it" over the past thirteen years, but when most of the problems were caused by chronic underfunding, that does not seem that unreasonable an approach.
I've acknowledged that there has been historic underfunding to the NHS; because that's plainly true. And I haven't said that the UK spends a disproportionately large amount of its money on healthcare; because it's quite clear that it doesn't.
What I have asked is whether tackling the historic underfunding by simply throwing truckloads of money at the NHS was the wisest thing to have done, and to what extent the structural problems of the NHS were improved by making all of its consultants extremely wealthy and hiring in an extra 58,000 managers and administrators.
I'm keen on the NHS being as good as it can be for the money we've got available to spend on it because I rely on it and so does everyone I care about.
Posted by Sleepwalker (# 15343) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally quoted by Alwyn:
On the contrary, there have undoubtedly been real and sustained improvements in public services,
There have? Where?
Education still seems to be about the same as when I was at school.....Seriously, where have these "undoubted" "real and sustained improvements" been made?
In the employment of teaching assistants and giving teachers preparation time in primary schools and guaranteed free periods in secondary schools under the 'rarely cover' scheme.
This has meant that teachers can get on with teaching and learning activities instead of spending hours photocopying, putting up wall displays and so on.
It also means that most class sizes are effectively halved because there are two adults in every class so that pupils with special needs get close attention and the other teacher is freed up to help the others ion the class.
You aren't a teacher then!
Classroom assistants are not in every class. In my three PGCE placements so far, no teacher outside of reception year has had a fulltime classroom assistant, never mind a teaching assistant, and none of my class teachers has had any help at all (Year 4, Year 6 and Year 1).
Preparation time in schools - PPA time - is a mixed blessing. It does provide teachers with time to do their marking, which otherwise would have been done at home, but it has knock-on effects, especially in poorer schools, where there has to be cover bought in or where teaching assistants have to be employed specifically for the purpose of covering classes during PPA time.
Teachers are totally free to do their own displays if they want to - and many enjoy doing them. The displays issue was a recommendation of some unions. It has nothing whatsoever to do with the government.
Class sizes are still routinely between 25 and 30 in the state primary sector (above 30 in some schools). All that has happened is that when rolls began to fall due to a decrease in the birth rate, local authorities merged schools, thus retaining the same class sizes as previously.
Aside from the adoption of the National Curriculum, the only significant changes to the education system have been the increase in state control and dictat, and there are some schools who have had so much money thrown at them by the previous government they do not know how to spend it (I recently visited one such school as part of the application process).
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
[M]y original statement that Cameron isn't interested in human rights was not about IVF or gays in Lithuania.
...
'A Conservative pledge to rip up the Human Rights Act has been kicked into the long grass after Kenneth Clarke, the new Justice Secretary, signalled it was not a priority. '
As Sleepwalker said, there is a difference between the Human Rights Act and human rights. If there wasn't, it would mean that we didn't have human rights in this country until 1999. I don't think I'm just being a sentimental Little Englander when I say that such a notion is complete poppycock.
Posted by Gildas (# 525) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sleepwalker:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
Today's Daily Telegraph backs me up - my original statement that Cameron isn't interested in human rights
Rubbish. The concern was with the European Human Rights Act, not with human rights. As the article also says:
The Tories have proposed a Bill of Rights that would still protect fundamental liberties but would be harder to use inappropriately.
That sounds like a good idea to me.
While 'tearing up' the European Human Rights Act might have gone on the back burner, as part of the coalition agreement, that does not mean to say it has gone.
Well, what happened was that HMG signed up to the European Convention on Human Rights in the 1950s under the tyrannical rule of the politically correct bolshevist appeaser Sir Winston Churchill. What used to happen was that UK citizens who felt that their rights under the convention were being ignored were able to appeal to Strasbourg if given permission by a UK judge. In an uncharacteristic fit of decency the party of ID Cards, Illegal Wars and locking up children in asylum cases decided that it would be a good idea to enshrine this major treaty commitment, entered into by, as I say, Sir Winston Churchill into UK law. This was opposed by the Tories on the grounds that it was foreign and, besides, people who appeal to human rights acts are nasty people whose human rights can be ignored. Happily the Tories failed to get a majority at the last election and were forced to coalesce with the liberals and the Blessed Kenneth Clarke (pbuh) and are now in favour of human rights. Hurrah!
Posted by Inger (# 15285) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Gildas:
quote:
Originally posted by Sleepwalker:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
Today's Daily Telegraph backs me up - my original statement that Cameron isn't interested in human rights
Rubbish. The concern was with the European Human Rights Act, not with human rights. As the article also says:
The Tories have proposed a Bill of Rights that would still protect fundamental liberties but would be harder to use inappropriately.
That sounds like a good idea to me.
While 'tearing up' the European Human Rights Act might have gone on the back burner, as part of the coalition agreement, that does not mean to say it has gone.
Well, what happened was that HMG signed up to the European Convention on Human Rights in the 1950s under the tyrannical rule of the politically correct bolshevist appeaser Sir Winston Churchill. What used to happen was that UK citizens who felt that their rights under the convention were being ignored were able to appeal to Strasbourg if given permission by a UK judge. In an uncharacteristic fit of decency the party of ID Cards, Illegal Wars and locking up children in asylum cases decided that it would be a good idea to enshrine this major treaty commitment, entered into by, as I say, Sir Winston Churchill into UK law. This was opposed by the Tories on the grounds that it was foreign and, besides, people who appeal to human rights acts are nasty people whose human rights can be ignored. Happily the Tories failed to get a majority at the last election and were forced to coalesce with the liberals and the Blessed Kenneth Clarke (pbuh) and are now in favour of human rights. Hurrah!
One could add that (to the best of my knowledge) the convention was drafted by English lawyers.
Posted by Tom Day (# 3630) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sleepwalker:
You aren't a teacher then!
[/QB]
I am, and I generally think that over the past 10 years or so that I have been involved in teaching and education that it has got better. Results in GCSE's and A levels have consistently gone up. Resources in the subject I teach (ICT) have consistently got better and more modern. As a teacher I have got more PPA time and can now spend more time planning and assessing students to improve their progress than before (this might be union based but the labour government helped bring in the teachers workload agreement)
Pay is generally good, I started on an excellent salary and still feel I get good pay.
People might have disagreements with the old New Labour government but personally, as a teacher, although they did bring in lots of initiatives - some good, some silly - over all I feel they did a good job.
Tom
Posted by Tom Day (# 3630) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sleepwalker:
Preparation time in schools - PPA time - is a mixed blessing. It does provide teachers with time to do their marking, which otherwise would have been done at home, but it has knock-on effects, especially in poorer schools, where there has to be cover bought in or where teaching assistants have to be employed specifically for the purpose of covering classes during PPA time.
Sorry for the double post, but I forgot that I really wanted to address this point. PPA time is not about marking. It is about preparation, planning and assessment time. A difference. Since we have been given PPA time, I do feel that it is now more beneficial to the students. I still spend the same time working at home (this is not the conversation to get into about teacher hours) but I also have guaranteed time at school where I can plan and assess for individual students to ensure that they are achieving their best. It enables me to give better feedback and marking for students so that they can improve. It also allows me to spend time thinking about that one class who has 4/5 difficult students in and how I am going to make sure that all those students learn, not just 90% of them.
Yes, I am in a secondary school where it is probably easier to manage. But it is important. Education is a fundamental right and issue for everyone, and yes, it is not perfect, but then the education system, the NHS, the welfare system, transport will never be perfect. But, I do think it has improved as people before me have said,
Tom
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Gildas:
Well, what happened was that HMG signed up to the European Convention on Human Rights in the 1950s under the tyrannical rule of the politically correct bolshevist appeaser Sir Winston Churchill.
But this doesn't take account of the jurisprudence of the European Court of Human Rights that has developed since then.In Britain, the objection is often to this, rather than the ECHR per se.
Posted by Sober Preacher's Kid (# 12699) on
:
Well, British judges will happily reflect on ECHR rulings through the lens of the Supreme Court of Canada, which speaks the same legal language British judges do. Our Charter of Rights & Freedoms is a sibling to the ECHR, the similarities are not coincidental.
So its not like they don't get the benefit of a decent Commonwealth-coloured nightlight to keep the boogeyman away.
In Canada if you don't cite an ECHR ruling when arguing a Charter case, you're not trying hard enough.
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
But this doesn't take account of the jurisprudence of the European Court of Human Rights that has developed since then.In Britain, the objection is often to this, rather than the ECHR per se.
Would you be willing to say a bit more about what you object to about the European Court of Human Rights case law, or how it is applied in the UK? Maybe you could provide an example (real or hypothetical)?
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alwyn:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Anglican't:
Would you be willing to say a bit more about what you object to about the European Court of Human Rights case law, or how it is applied in the UK? Maybe you could provide an example (real or hypothetical)?
I'm afraid that I'm not sufficiently well-versed in ECHR case law to give a full answer to this point, but there have certainly been decisions by the ECHR with which I disagree and I think are generally unpopular (such as giving prisoners the right to vote).
Dominic Grieve's plan for a British Bill of Rights was, as I understand it, intended to halt this. At the moment, the ECHR will look to the Convention and its own jurisprudence when making a decision. If the Conservatives' plan had been fulfilled, the ECHR would do this and then go on to consider its decision in light of the Bill of Rights.
The idea was that this would prevent the application of the more unpalatable ECHR decisions in the UK. I don't know whether this would actually work.
I read an article setting out Mr Grieve's thinking. I'll supply a link if I find it.
Posted by leo (# 1458) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sleepwalker:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally quoted by Alwyn:
On the contrary, there have undoubtedly been real and sustained improvements in public services,
There have? Where?
Education still seems to be about the same as when I was at school.....Seriously, where have these "undoubted" "real and sustained improvements" been made?
In the employment of teaching assistants and giving teachers preparation time in primary schools and guaranteed free periods in secondary schools under the 'rarely cover' scheme.
This has meant that teachers can get on with teaching and learning activities instead of spending hours photocopying, putting up wall displays and so on.
It also means that most class sizes are effectively halved because there are two adults in every class so that pupils with special needs get close attention and the other teacher is freed up to help the others ion the class.
You aren't a teacher then!
Thirty years in secondary, 24 of them in middle management followed by five years of voluntary work for my professional association.
Posted by Boogie (# 13538) on
:
Teaching Assistants are a wonderful asset.
But the rise in TA numbers has grown with the rise in paperwork - so the children have gained very little in terms of adult time, sadly.
...
Posted by Moth (# 2589) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Alwyn:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Anglican't:
Would you be willing to say a bit more about what you object to about the European Court of Human Rights case law, or how it is applied in the UK? Maybe you could provide an example (real or hypothetical)?
I'm afraid that I'm not sufficiently well-versed in ECHR case law to give a full answer to this point, but there have certainly been decisions by the ECHR with which I disagree and I think are generally unpopular (such as giving prisoners the right to vote).
You can only think of one example off the top of your head? So why the great clamour for change? Even your one example lacks weight - surely it seems disproportionate to take away someone's vote if they happen to be in jail for a week for an unpaid fine when an election is on? If you admit that, then we are arguing about a question of which prisoners should get the vote. No-one is proposing that all prisoners should, only that the penalty of disenfranchisement should be proportionate to the offence.
Any protection of human rights is bound to throw up unpopular decisions. Popular people rarely need their rights protecting. It's always the marginalised who need their human rights enforced. I'm sure there are still people out there who think it's unbelievable that blacks have the same rights as whites, and that women have the vote. The majority once thought that was an unwarrantable change to the British way of life.
If you think the English courts are likely to develop along very different lines to the ECtHR, I think you're mistaken. Which rights would you like to abrogate? The right to life? The right not to be tortured? The right to respect for your own property? Freedom of religion? Freedom of speech?
There are numerous cases where the Human Rights Act is pleaded but fails. One such example is
Rv Denbigh High School ex parte Begum. . When I talk to Daily Mail reading friends, they have never heard of this case. Perhaps we should all actually look at the case law rather than listening to prejudiced reports of it?
[ 15. May 2010, 13:18: Message edited by: Moth ]
Posted by leo (# 1458) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Boogie:
Teaching Assistants are a wonderful asset.
But the rise in TA numbers has grown with the rise in paperwork - so the children have gained very little in terms of adult time, sadly.
...
They did for a while until more paperwork got dumped on teachers.
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Pottage:
The exact extent of the NHS's funding bonanza is hard to pin down exactly despite the vast quantity of statistics available (and previously there has been a lot of underinvestment of course). But candidly if you threw an increase in funding of (say) inflation+80% at absolutely any business or organisation it would perform better. The questions are:
could the same improvements have been achieved without such vast expense?
could more improvements have been expected for that sort of cost?
and given that such largesse isn't going to be sustainable will the improvements that have been made be lost when the river of taxpayers' gold runs dry?
Well argued.
The big change in Consultant pay follows on from the new Consultants' contract. I think it's probably accurate to say that this hasn't been as successful as hoped;
quote:
From The National Audit Office Report 2007
We conclude that the contract is not yet delivering the full value for money to the NHS and patients that was expected from it although the Department believe that it is too early to judge this. The contract has helped to align consultants’ pay levels with their contribution to the NHS. Some consultants are actually working the same if not fewer hours for more money. Whilst this may be in line with the Department’s objective to reward consultants more appropriately for their NHS work, our survey showed that consultants’ morale has been reduced in the process of implementing the contract. There is little evidence that ways of working have been changed as a result of the new contract and, although most consultants now have job plans, few trusts have used job planning as a lever for improving participation or productivity.
I think that's disappointing. It does seem wrong that the one of the wealthiest groups within the NHS has had the biggest pay increase. However in terms of total public spending, it's not a large amount because there are so few consultants in relative terms. From the same report the cost of the consultants' contract was ~£715 million in 2005-6 (around 1% of NHS funding).
AFZ
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
... there have certainly been decisions by the ECHR with which I disagree and I think are generally unpopular (such as giving prisoners the right to vote).
Thank you, that's a good example. If you'd like more examples, I'd recommend the book 'The Assault on Liberty' by Dominic Raab.
You're right: some human rights decisions were unpopular with many people. Whether or not people were well-informed about those decisions is a different question.
Why were people ill-informed about human rights decisions? Parts of the media spread myths. Also, human brings like to deflect blame for their mistakes - and Labour ministers were all too human. The Parliamentary Joint Committee on Human Rights (JCHR) found that:
"... public misunderstandings [of the Human Rights Act] will continue so long as very senior Ministers make unfounded assertions about the Act and use it as a scapegoat for administrative failings in their departments"
What about the case of Naomi Bryant - a death blamed on the Human Rights Act. The JCHR found:-
"The Committee says government has followed the media in saying that the Human Rights Act had been responsible for the tragic death of Naomi Bryant because it had required her killer to be released. Careful Committee inquiry established that there was no evidence that Naomi Bryant had been killed as a result of officials misinterpreting the Human Rights Act. Despite this clear finding, both the Government and the media have continued to repeat the unfounded assertion that the Human Rights Act caused the death of an innocent woman. Other popular myths have been allowed to flourish, such as the Human Rights Act being responsible for the provision of a takeaway meal to a prisoner making a rooftop protest, or the provision of pornography to a serial killer in prison."
So are human rights decisions unpopular because they're bad or because people are misled? Let's look at your example, (the prisoners' voting ban case) - Hirst v UK. The following part of the Court's reasoning is worth a look (from para. 82):
"The provision imposes a blanket restriction on all convicted prisoners in prison. It applies automatically to such prisoners, irrespective of the length of their sentence and irrespective of the nature or gravity of their offence and their individual circumstances. Such a general, automatic and indiscriminate restriction on a vitally important Convention right must be seen as falling outside any acceptable margin of appreciation"
Does it make a difference to know that the Court in Hirst v UK didn't hold that all prisoners must have the right to vote (they only decided that an automatic, blanket ban is not allowed)?
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
"human brings like to deflect blame for their mistakes..."
Sorry - that should read "human beings..."
Posted by Gildas (# 525) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by ken:
quote:
Originally posted by Gildas:
So the British evangelical right are going to learn in short order what the American evangelical right have yet to notice. That their job is to deliver the maximum number of votes for the minimum number of concessions.
What evangelical right? Rumour hath it that Ms May is an Anglo-Catholic, of FiF persuasion.
An account of the Tory Evangelical right can be found here. I can't see them being ecstatic with the replacement of Mr Grayling with Ms May, or indeed dibs for the libs to duck out of the vote on giving married couples tax breaks but that's just me.
Posted by Angloid (# 159) on
:
I can't speak for Ken, but I imagine the point he was making was not that evangelicals are an insignificant force within the Tory party (that article suggests they are punching above their weight of numbers), but that Tories/conservatives are an insignificant proportion of evangelicals in Britain, unlike, we are led to believe, their counterparts in the US.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Boogie:
Teaching Assistants are a wonderful asset.
But the rise in TA numbers has grown with the rise in paperwork - so the children have gained very little in terms of adult time, sadly.
...
Mrs. Cod, who trained as a teacher in South Africa, was horrified at the sheer amount of paperwork she had to do when she taught in British schools in 97-01, particularly for inspections. She remembers producing reports that she knew no-one would ever read. Has it changed for the better, and do teachers themselves regard it as a problem?
(I am told that the South African government tried to replicate the British system there, but gave up when they realised that the schools were simply ignoring them)
Posted by Sleepwalker (# 15343) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
Thirty years in secondary, 24 of them in middle management followed by five years of voluntary work for my professional association.
Secondary and middle management to boot. That explains it! Things are different in primary.
[ 16. May 2010, 09:26: Message edited by: Sleepwalker ]
Posted by Sleepwalker (# 15343) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
Mrs. Cod, who trained as a teacher in South Africa, was horrified at the sheer amount of paperwork she had to do when she taught in British schools in 97-01, particularly for inspections. She remembers producing reports that she knew no-one would ever read. Has it changed for the better, and do teachers themselves regard it as a problem?
Yes, they do. A pretty big problem, actually. There was more to come had the previous administration remained in power. Hopefully, things will change with the new government.
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
Could we break down for a moment, what *is* the paperwork and which bits you would like to drop ?
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
FWIW, Anglican't, although I'm not a Conservative supporter, I like their proposal on ID cards and was impressed by David Davis' principled resignation from the Commons to highlight the issue of civil liberties.
Also, I am sure that there are examples of human rights decisions which were unpopular without being misunderstood. However, as Moth argued, human rights protect unpopular people, and people accused of doing unpopular things. Human rights are meant to ensure that the State is fair to everyone, not just people that any particular government likes.
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
Dominic Grieve's plan for a British Bill of Rights was, as I understand it, intended to halt this.
Mr Grieve could improve the situation by telling ministers and public officials that, if anyone uses the Human Rights Act as a scapegoat for mistakes or unpopular decisions, a press officer will correct them. That would hopefully prevent ministers in trouble saying 'the Human Rights Act made me do it.'
I don't yet see how a British Bill of Rights would prevent unpopular decisions by the European Court of Human Rights.
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
At the moment, the ECHR will look to the Convention and its own jurisprudence when making a decision.
We agree on this.
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
If the Conservatives' plan had been fulfilled, the ECHR would do this and then go on to consider its decision in light of the Bill of Rights
Here we see it differently (unless I have misunderstood you). The European Court of Human Rights acts on the instructions given to it in the European Convention on Human Rights and its Protocols, which are part of international law. A British Bill of Rights would be part of UK law and would not be part of the instructions that the Court obeys. The UK cannot unilaterally change how the Court works; to change a treaty, you need a protocol. Even if member states of the Council of Europe agreed such a protocol, what would it say that would prevent unpopular decisions being made - what specific instruction to judges should be given?
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
I read an article setting out Mr Grieve's thinking. I'll supply a link if I find it.
I'd be interested to read that article if you can find a link.
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
I read an article setting out Mr Grieve's thinking. I'll supply a link if I find it.
I found this thought-provoking speech by Mr Grieve - does it help?
Posted by Sleepwalker (# 15343) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Think²:
Could we break down for a moment, what *is* the paperwork and which bits you would like to drop ?
I can only speak for the primary sector as that is the sector I work in. Things may be different for secondaries, I don't know.
Anyway, one of the big bugbears among primary teachers has been the huge increase in paperwork relating to assessment. The previous government was extremely proscriptive in this respect and demanded evidence of progress at every stage of the education process. Without this evidence, Ofsted could effectively put a school into special measures and teachers could be deemed as failing. So, therefore, teachers had to comply.
Take a Year 2 class (6-7 year olds) of 30 children (the norm in class size for state primaries is between 26 and 30 children). For each lesson a teacher has to write out an objective on the board and this has to be written in the children's books also. The class is taken, the work done. The teacher has to mark all the children's work, which is how it should be. However, they also then have to assess it against the objective in accordance with whichever assessment scheme the school has adopted. The most popular one appears to be AfL (Assessment for Learning) and this has various guises.
For the sake of discussion, the Year 2 class uses the traffic light system (red for understanding, yellow for not sure, green for doing ok). The children may have assessed themselves at the end of the lesson. The teacher then has to assess that and mark accordingly (on top of the usual form of marking). The teacher then has to complete a form - for every lesson, for every child - to provide the written record of that child's progress in that lesson on that day.
There will be another assessment of every child, separate to the one above, at the end of every unit in every subject. This usually but not always takes the form of a test. Which then has to be marked and assessed accordingly.
There are then termly assessments of every child's overall progress.
There are then yearly assessments, full reports written (to pass up to the next class) and reports written to parents, mostly using the previous government's standardised language.
You do the maths.
Things could have gotten worse with the introduction of APP, which came with its own 100 page instruction manual. APP is for core subjects only (English, Maths, Science and ICT). It consists of a series of tables on which there are a series of statements printed. After every lesson in the core subjects, the teacher would have to highlight the statement which best reflected the child's attainment in that subject. They would have to go through this process for every child after every core subject lesson. This system was due to replace SATs.
At the end of the day, no matter how much paperwork the previous government demanded that the teachers complete, assessment is subjective and is based upon the teacher's knowledge of the child, abilities as a teacher and knowledge of the subject taught. That hasn't changed. And no amount of 'evidence' would change it. So what was wrong with marking books, keeping a running record and assessing at the end of the school year?
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alwyn:
I found this thought-provoking speech by Mr Grieve - does it help?
This is better than the article that I was looking for (which was a Spectator article abour Mr Grieve, rather than something by him). The point in the Spectator article, which Mr Grieve refers to, is the idea of a 'margin of appreciation' that he hopes a British Bill of Rights will create.
In the speech, Mr Grieve sets out a number of criticisms about the ECHR and its jurisprudence. That criticism has come from a number of authoritative sources, including Lord Hoffman, as he says.
Having set out those problems, Mr Grieve then rules out withdrawal from the ECHR on the basis that:
Such a withdrawal would send a very damaging signal about how the UK viewed the place and promotion of human rights and liberties and would be an encouragement to every tin pot dictator such as Robert Mugabe, who violates them.
I don't see why that should be the case, and that's where we diverge. To me, something doesn't necessarily embody the best of human rights just because it has 'human rights' in its title (if that was the case, North Korea would be the most open democracy on earth). I think we should have the self-confidence to say 'our centuries old common law protects human rights and we trust our courts to defend them'.
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
So the forms themselves are not that complex, maybe take 1 minute per child per lesson - but you take maybe 8 lessons a day of 30 kids (240 forms) and then that is 240 minutes = 4hrs. Or you are doing less lessons, or the forms take less long, and you might get it down to 2 hrs.
Thing is the idea makes sense - it is the volume that is the problem. If you did the same thing per subject per week per child, would it be more viable ?
Part of the problem is the constant demand for information - we have the same issue in the health service and similar volume issue. Something that appears to make sense and be quick, becomes very onerous when it is scaled up. But at the same time, politicians, the public and the media - want evidence of whether approach a or trust a or initiative a is making a difference.
Likewise, if you want to guarantee x waiting time - some one has to report information on how long folk are waiting to know if is working, or you just get battling anecdotes. One of the advantages of the NHS IT system if/when it finally happens is it will reduce some of the load of reording without losing the information.
Posted by Moth (# 2589) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by Alwyn:
I found this thought-provoking speech by Mr Grieve - does it help?
In the speech, Mr Grieve sets out a number of criticisms about the ECHR and its jurisprudence. That criticism has come from a number of authoritative sources, including Lord Hoffman, as he says.
Having set out those problems, Mr Grieve then rules out withdrawal from the ECHR on the basis that:
Such a withdrawal would send a very damaging signal about how the UK viewed the place and promotion of human rights and liberties and would be an encouragement to every tin pot dictator such as Robert Mugabe, who violates them.
I don't see why that should be the case, and that's where we diverge. To me, something doesn't necessarily embody the best of human rights just because it has 'human rights' in its title (if that was the case, North Korea would be the most open democracy on earth). I think we should have the self-confidence to say 'our centuries old common law protects human rights and we trust our courts to defend them'.
I think the legal difficulty with that is the doctrine of Parliamentary Sovereignty. Under our constitution, Parliament can enact any law it likes, and the courts cannot challenge it. The HRA changed that, because it allowed the courts to declare the law incompatible with the ECHR.
In other words, the common law, by itself, cannot protect the sorts of rights protected by the convention. In fact, we can see that it didn't. It did not protect the rights of gay people to live together and form families, for example. It did not prevent the slave trade - Parliament had to do that.
As an academic lawyer, I find the HRA very exciting. It has allowed a very principled move forward in the common law, whereby we can judge the effect of any law (intended or unintended) through the prism of human rights, and adjust it accordingly. Yes, at the beginning you will get some really stupid claims and a few stupid decisions. Most of these will be gradually reversed and refined over time - that's how the common law has always worked. In fifty years' time, we'll be utterly amazed that we ever managed any other way.
Posted by Think² (# 1984) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sleepwalker:
At the end of the day, no matter how much paperwork the previous government demanded that the teachers complete, assessment is subjective and is based upon the teacher's knowledge of the child, abilities as a teacher and knowledge of the subject taught. That hasn't changed. And no amount of 'evidence' would change it. So what was wrong with marking books, keeping a running record and assessing at the end of the school year?
I guess the problem is that you can't automatically aggregate the data from marking books (basically). The APP sounds very similar to many standardised psychometrics, which once you know how to do them are very quick. But doesn't solve the volume problem (you usually find the massive manual is full of case studies and people talking about how clever they were when they invented it or comparision tables - rather than actual instructions on how to administer it).
If your "marking book" was an excel file, onto which you had added a colour code - John Smith mark 7 code red etc, and it autogenerated the output of the forms - so either you just had to print it out or it went to the headmaster's database and he printed it out every so often, the time factor would be much reduced. (And so would the impact on the world's tree population.)
[ 16. May 2010, 11:35: Message edited by: Think² ]
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
If you accept that courts will make 'stupid decisions' then you must accept that Parliament will make 'stupid decisions' too, surely? So, in the case of slavery, Parliament didn't legislate against it when there was a large degree of public acceptance of it (and neither did the Courts do much about it, as far I'm aware). As attitudes change, so did Parliament's approach to the issue.
Posted by Gildas (# 525) on
:
I thought that the common law did have an effect on the abolition of slavery inasmuch as Lord Mansfield's judgement that it was illegal in England and Wales did it quite a lot of damage. According to wikipedia something like 14,000 - 15,000 slaves were freed at the stroke of a pen.
The British Government, under Sir Winston Churchill, signed the European Convention on Human Rights because it wanted to send a signal of 'never again' after the horrors of the Second World War. I do wish people who object to it because, under the HRA the courts occasionally find for people in prison, gypsies and immigrants would remember that from time to time.
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Gildas:
I thought that the common law did have an effect on the abolition of slavery inasmuch as Lord Mansfield's judgement that it was illegal in England and Wales did it quite a lot of damage. According to wikipedia something like 14,000 - 15,000 slaves were freed at the stroke of a pen.
I didn't know that. Interesting.
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Gildas:
The British Government, under Sir Winston Churchill, signed the European Convention on Human Rights because it wanted to send a signal of 'never again' after the horrors of the Second World War. I do wish people who object to it because, under the HRA the courts occasionally find for people in prison, gypsies and immigrants would remember that from time to time.
Totally and completely agree. We have forgotten the lesson of history.
AFZ
Posted by Anglican't (# 15292) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
Totally and completely agree. We have forgotten the lesson of history.
Have we? Although Sir Winston Churchill agreed to the ECHR and the Court, it doesn't follow that, had he been around today, he would have agreed with the way things have turned out.
Also, not only were the horrors of the Second World War not perpetrated in the UK, but also I don't see them being repeated in Europe generally, given the general social, economic and political change that has occurred across the continent over the past 60 years.
Even if there was that chance, there is a difference, surely, between a court making general decisions and proper democratic government on the one hand, and an interfering court, micro-managing people's lives on the other.
Posted by Moth (# 2589) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Gildas:
I thought that the common law did have an effect on the abolition of slavery inasmuch as Lord Mansfield's judgement that it was illegal in England and Wales did it quite a lot of damage. According to wikipedia something like 14,000 - 15,000 slaves were freed at the stroke of a pen.
That's why I said 'slave trade' not slavery. However, the common law was inconsistent on the matter of slavery. The brief history in Wikipedia seems to be basically correct. It certainly didn't have the effect of outlawing either slavery or the slave trade until Parliament intervened.
quote:
The British Government, under Sir Winston Churchill, signed the European Convention on Human Rights because it wanted to send a signal of 'never again' after the horrors of the Second World War. I do wish people who object to it because, under the HRA the courts occasionally find for people in prison, gypsies and immigrants would remember that from time to time.
I couldn't agree more. One of the things I find most upsetting in arguments like this is the failure to grasp that if human rights are to be any use at all, they must be for everyone. And yes, that includes gypsies, immigrants, paedophiles, and even BNP members. Everyone! We can all point to people who were thought unworthy of them in the past - I'm a woman, so that example springs readily to mind. How will we feel about some of the marginalised in the future? Will we be proud of ourselves? Why not be the first civilisation to protect the human rights of everybody - wouldn't that be something of which to be proud?
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
The problem with human rights jurisprudence as it currently stands is that it seems to throw up results that seem instinctively odd. For example, just recently a girl brought a knife to her school and threatened some other children with it. It turns out according to some senior lawyers that the New Zealand Bill of Rights prevented the school from searching the children's bags to ensure that no weapons were contained in them.
I am assuming that the relevant human right is from unreasonable search and seizure. What is 'reasonable' in any given circumstance is hard enough for a lawyer, and downright impossible for a layperson, and thus a chilling effect that prevents a schoool from adopting what might well be a common-sense solution is created.
Posted by leo (# 1458) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sleepwalker:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
Thirty years in secondary, 24 of them in middle management followed by five years of voluntary work for my professional association.
Secondary and middle management to boot. That explains it! Things are different in primary.
You sound as if you think I am out of touch.
Re 'middle management' that can mean:
a) a head of department = 'subject leader' in primary. In secondary, a HOD is likely to get 1 hour 40 minutes extra non-teaching time than his/her staff. In that time s/he has to sit in on lessons to coach staff, do appraisals, target setting, write schemes of work etc.
b) a head of year/house with the same amount of extra time in which to deal with unruly pupils contact parents, suspend pupils, readmit them and do academic monitoring.
Sure, primary is different - someone is likely to head up more than one subject but
a) behaviour is likely to be easier to deal with because you teach the dame class for most of the time. (As Head of RE, I taught about 400 different children in the course of a week - hard to keep perfect discipline when you don't know all those names)
b) you may have to keep abreast of more subjects but you are likely to work with the same key stage for several years whereas secondary teachers work over three key stages.
Re- the number of teaching assistants on hand - this will depend what sort of school you are in. My last school had a special needs unit attached but the pupils were put into mainstream as far as possible. This meant that there were at least 5 statemented pupils in each class so that would always entail a TA.
Re- paperwork (and arguing against my view that things improved under Labour) my memory is that the Tories bought in the National Curriculum and testing in 1988 but didn't police their reforms very carefully so we did what we thought right and subverted what we thought wrong.
When Labour got in, they micromanaged every single detail so the worst excesses of Tory policy got implemented.
Under the old system, you got plenty of notice of an OFSTED visit so you could cobble together the necessary paperwork.
Now, with such short notice,you have to endlessly churn out paperwork just in case. OFSTED will only look at it if you are likely to go into special measures but you can't take the risk of that not being the case. Which is why my professional association's election manifesto was to abolish OFSTED.
Posted by Nightlamp (# 266) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Gildas:
I thought that the common law did have an effect on the abolition of slavery inasmuch as Lord Mansfield's judgement that it was illegal in England and Wales did it quite a lot of damage. According to wikipedia something like 14,000 - 15,000 slaves were freed at the stroke of a pen.
I thought his judgement was narrow than this it was about forbiddng the removal of slaves from the England. His judgement though created a vital precedent which eventually changed the law of England.
Posted by Leprechaun (# 5408) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Moth:
As an academic lawyer, I find the HRA very exciting. It has allowed a very principled move forward in the common law, whereby we can judge the effect of any law (intended or unintended) through the prism of human rights, and adjust it accordingly. Yes, at the beginning you will get some really stupid claims and a few stupid decisions. Most of these will be gradually reversed and refined over time - that's how the common law has always worked. In fifty years' time, we'll be utterly amazed that we ever managed any other way.
Hands up here that I did my law degree to finish in 1999, so I haven't followed the cases under the HRA. I wrote a very interesting essay in my finals about its potential effects! However, one of the issues my then consititutional law tutor had with it then (it may not be an issue now, nobody really knew!) was that the European Court of Human Rights draws judges from all the countries which sign up the convention.
Some of those countries haven't even been democracies for long, have no common law tradition and don't have much jurisprudence to go on, yet we are handing the judges the possibility of sweeping away "centuries of common law tradition with the stroke of a pen."
Is this just "rah rah British law is best" talking, or are some of the strangely anomalous cases sometimes touted in the tabloids evidence of this type of ill thought through jurisprudence?
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
I think we should have the self-confidence to say 'our centuries old common law protects human rights and we trust our courts to defend them'.
I see what you mean. Yes, we have a tradition of protecting liberty through the common law (and statutes). Yes, liberty can be protected without UK involvement in the European Court (and Convention) of Human Rights. While agreeing with those points, I'll aim to make a case for the UK taking part in the European Court of Human Rights.
If people's human rights are abused in other countries, that affects us. Morally, it affects us because, as John Donne wrote:
Each man's death diminishes me,
For I am involved in mankind.
Therefore, send not to know
For whom the bell tolls,
It tolls for thee.
On a practical level, it affects us because people tend to leave countries where they are persecuted and the UK is one of the places where they seek sanctuary. If we take part in a system that helps to prevent abuses of human rights elsewhere, that benefits us.
However, as you wrote, the Holocaust didn't happen here. Why not just require the 'bad' countries to take part in the European Court of Human Rights? Leprechaun wrote that some European states are relatively new democracies - why not just require them to take part in the Court? Why not - because that approach was tried by the League of Nations' international system for minority protection after the First World War. The fact that only (perceived) 'bad' countries were required to take part built resentment and resistance, which was one reason (admittedly, among other reasons) why the system failed.
By taking part in the European Court of Human Rights, we show that we are willing to 'take the plank out of our government's eye' before removing specks in the eyes of governments in other countries. Taking part helps us to remember European history; it provides an independent voice to help protect our liberty; it encourages our Government to take responsibility and 'practice what we preach'.
Posted by Cod (# 2643) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
Even if there was that chance, there is a difference, surely, between a court making general decisions and proper democratic government on the one hand, and an interfering court, micro-managing people's lives on the other.
What might be relevant here is the difference between administrative law under common law, and administrative law elsewhere (lawyers will perhaps be more familiar with the term 'judicial review': for the rest, I mean the body of law concerning the government's power to make decisions). Under common law, the Courts only have the power to ask whether the decision-maker had the power to make that decision. It is a simple yes/no, and the political merits of the decision traditionally aren't the preserve of the Court, which has no expertise to examine them.
It seems to me that the enactment of human rights legislation drives a wedge through all this, because government officials must take human rights into account when making decisions. It allows the Court to look at the merits of the decision under this guise. Given that Britain, unlike France, has no tradition of administrative courts, and given that judges from overseas might not appreciate the local context of any particular decision, it is clear that this new approach is likely to cause difficulties.
I think there is a further problem with human rights legislation that goes back to my example of searching pupils' school bags for knives, as mentioned above. At common law, searching a school bag is prohibited: it can constitute the tort of trespass to goods, or (if, say, something is confiscated) detinue or conversion. But at common law, these rights can be waived. If a school required parents to consent to bag-searching on enrollment, no tort would be committed if a bag was in fact searched within the terms of the consent. No lawyer worth his salt would advise an litigious parent to sue a school: such a case would be hopeless.
However, legislation enshrining, for example, rights of privacy and unreasonable search change this hugely. The school's policy can be challenged, for example, as could the consent. While I am sure academics can pinpoint what is and isn't a reasonable search retrospectively, at the coal face, the school cannot absolutely protect itself against the prospect of liability. Litigation becomes an ever-present possibility. This in turn causes a chilling effect which results in knives being brought to school in unopened bags etc.
I imagine it would have an effect on damages awarded too: pre-human rights, any breach would probably be technical and result in an award of damages so small that a case would not have been worth bringing. Now, I suspect it would be greater, as a human right, rather than just a minor property right, would be at stake.
In short, human rights jurisprudence will always be problematic when it cannot separate situations where defending a human right is clearly important, from those where it clearly isn't.
Posted by dyfrig (# 15) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
I think we should have the self-confidence to say 'our centuries old common law protects human rights and we trust our courts to defend them'.
Here's a link to the list of human rights the 1998 encapsulates.
Could the Common Law be said to protect all of them without legislation? If they are worth, protecting, why not have them in one place, especially as the argument seems to be more about judicial process rather than principles?
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sleepwalker:
The Tories have proposed a Bill of Rights that would still protect fundamental liberties but would be harder to use inappropriately.
That sounds like a good idea to me.
Why does it sound like a good idea? What in your view is wrong with the wording of the existing Act? (Which is after all, as others have said, codification of English legal principles that are older than the EU)
What real harm has been done by any UK courts using the HRA? I mean real harm, not anecdotal wibble about people claiming that their "human rights" have been violated in order to get away with something, but actual serious injustice that would not have happened had we not ahd this law?
The last forty or fifty posts have only come up with the rather sensible ruling about prisoners voting. If that's the worst this law does, we should thank God for it. Courts make worse decisions than that every day.
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by ken:
What real harm has been done by any UK courts using the HRA? I mean real harm, not anecdotal wibble about people claiming that their "human rights" have been violated in order to get away with something, but actual serious injustice that would not have happened had we not ahd this law?
Ask Naomi Bryant. Except you can't, because she's dead. Killed by a dangerous convicted criminal who was freed because of human rights concerns.
This quote says it all:
quote:
But Mr Bridges said the failures in the Rice case had been exacerbated by two instances where parole and probation staff had allowed human rights considerations to undermine the importance of public protection.
And just in case you think I mined the gutter right-wing press for that quote, it's from the Guardian.
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
This quote says it all:
But Mr Bridges said the failures in the Rice case had been exacerbated by two instances where parole and probation staff had allowed human rights considerations to undermine the importance of public protection.
... and there was me suggesting that, when mistakes happen, public officials sometimes try to deflect blame by saying (in essence) 'It's not our fault, the Human Rights Act made us do it.' Amazing.
Someone will come along soon to explain that, according to the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Human Rights, the mistakes weren't actually due to the HRA. No, wait, somebody already did.
[ 17. May 2010, 15:01: Message edited by: Alwyn ]
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alwyn:
Someone will come along soon to explain that, according to the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Human Rights, the mistakes weren't actually due to the HRA. No, wait, somebody already did.
You quote the JCHR in that post as explicitly saying that her death was not due to "officials misinterpreting the Human Rights Act". Note that that leaves it wide open as to whether they correctly interpreted it, resulting in the perp's release.
Why would they put that bit about misinterpreting in if it was nothing to do with the act at all? If it had nothing to do with it, wouldn't they simply say it was "not due to the HRA"?
Posted by Sober Preacher's Kid (# 12699) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Gildas:
I thought that the common law did have an effect on the abolition of slavery inasmuch as Lord Mansfield's judgement that it was illegal in England and Wales did it quite a lot of damage. According to wikipedia something like 14,000 - 15,000 slaves were freed at the stroke of a pen.
But at the same time the British merchant fleet was the largest participant in the Triangular Trade with the infamous Middle Passage of slaves, and slavery was rife in most American colonies. Jamaica and Barbados depended on slavery. Upper Canada had to pass the Act Against Slavery, 1793 to keep the slaves of Loyalists out of the colony. New York was still a slave state at the time, as was New Jersey. Only Pennsylvania and New England were abolitionist.
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
You quote the JCHR in that post as explicitly saying that her death was not due to "officials misinterpreting the Human Rights Act". Note that that leaves it wide open as to whether they correctly interpreted it, resulting in the perp's release.
Why would they put that bit about misinterpreting in if it was nothing to do with the act at all? ...
I see. The Joint Committee explored the possibility that the HRA had been 'correctly interpreted'. From the Joint Committee report:
"We also asked if [Mr Bridges] could provide any evidence that at the principal decision-making points in the management of Rice's case, including at the time of his release on licence and in deciding the conditions to which he should be subject on release, human rights considerations had the effect described in the report, and whether in Mr. Bridges' view this was because of a correct or incorrect interpretation of the requirements of the HRA by the relevant decision-makers.
35. In his reply Mr Bridges himself points out that his report "made no comment about the Human Rights Act itself" and that it was a huge distortion of his report's findings to say that Rice was released in order to meet his human rights. He also says, significantly, that he did not think that decision-makers are interpreting the Act wrongly, and that in his experience the great majority of case managers are either fully aware that the HRA does not prevent them from carrying out their public protection responsibilities or would at least know whom to consult to check."
(source, para. 34)
The Committee concluded that, in this case as in other cases, "...the Human Rights Act has been used as a convenient scapegoat for unrelated administrative failings within Government" (same source, para 40)
[ 17. May 2010, 15:41: Message edited by: Alwyn ]
Posted by Carys (# 78) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
]Ask Naomi Bryant. Except you can't, because she's dead. Killed by a dangerous convicted criminal who was freed because of human rights concerns.
This quote says it all:
quote:
But Mr Bridges said the failures in the Rice case had been exacerbated by two instances where parole and probation staff had allowed human rights considerations to undermine the importance of public protection.
And just in case you think I mined the gutter right-wing press for that quote, it's from the Guardian.
Escept it doesn't say it all. I've just read the Guardian report and there was a lot more going on the ideas about Human Rights which aren't fully explained in the article. What were this human rights considerations anyway? But they are only a small part of a series of bad decisions and the Human Rights Act was not invoked in court. How would a Bill of Rights change things?
Carys
Posted by Albertus (# 13356) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by ken:
Why does it sound like a good idea? What in your view is wrong with the wording of the existing Act? (Which is after all, as others have said, codification of English legal principles that are older than the EU)
What real harm has been done by any UK courts using the HRA? [/QB][/QUOTE]
I have no problem with Uk courts using the HRA. my objection is to the appellate jurisdiction of the court in Strasbourg, allowing cases to be decided by judges who are (mostly) not from our jurisprudential traditions and are operating outisde a UK context (not that i'm saying that our traditions and context are innately superior, just that there needs to be some contextual and jurispeudential consistency, which is I think soemthing that is less likely to be provided by the Strasbourg court than by domestic ones). So if it were up to me I'd keep the Act but get us out of the Convention. Except of course that we can't really do that- it's a condition for membership of the Council of Europe (which is a more or less good thing) and in any case we have to set an examnple for those remaining places in eastern & southern Europe which really do need the Convention rights. So we're stuck with it, as the lesser of two evils.
[ 18. May 2010, 08:00: Message edited by: Albertus ]
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
Cod posted a carefully reasoned argument and no-one has replied yet, so I'll have a go.
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
Under common law, the Courts only have the power to ask whether the decision-maker had the power to make that decision. It is a simple yes/no, and the political merits of the decision traditionally aren't the preserve of the Court, which has no expertise to examine them.
It seems to me that the enactment of human rights legislation drives a wedge through all this, because government officials must take human rights into account when making decisions. It allows the Court to look at the merits of the decision under this guise.
Judges stand accused of two (linked) wrongs here: taking into account the political merits of decisions and making decisions on isses on which they lack expertise. However, interpreting the law is a core competence for judges. That is what judges are doing when they apply human rights law.
Also, your argument seems to over-state the distinction between (supposedly) 'merits-free' common law cases and 'merits-based' human rights cases. In judicial review under common law, the boundary between merits and legality is blurred already, as judges decide whether a decision as, for example, 'irrational' or 'disproportionate'.
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
Given that Britain, unlike France, has no tradition of administrative courts, and given that judges from overseas might not appreciate the local context of any particular decision, it is clear that this new approach is likely to cause difficulties.
True, the UK has no tradition of a specialist Administrative Court (not before 2000, anyway).
Judges at the European Court of Human Rights understand that different countries have different legal traditions. They have been giving countries leeway to apply human rights principles differently in different contexts, through the 'margin of appreciation' doctrine, since Handyside v UK in 1976.
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
I think there is a further problem with human rights legislation that goes back to my example of searching pupils' school bags for knives, as mentioned above.
If i understand you correctly, you're arguing that (under common law) schools can rely on consent to search pupils' school bags. Human rights principles stop schools from relying on consent because human rights cannot be waived. You argue that human rights laws on (as you put it) "rights of privacy and unreasonable search" make a big difference. Schools face an unpredictable risk of litigation and a (potentially) much bigger penalty for breach of human rights than a common law interference with property. Did I summarise your argument accurately?
The New Zealand Bill of Rights prohibits "unreasonable search or seizure, whether of the person, property, or correspondence or otherwise." I can see how teachers could feel uncertain about whether a search of a school bag would be considered 'unreasonable' or not.
However, the privacy right in the European Convention on Human Rights provides a bit more information. It says (Article 8):
"1. Everyone has the right to respect for his private and family life, his home and his correspondence.
2. There shall be no interference by a public authority with the exercise of this right except such as is in accordance with the law and is necessary in a democratic society in the interests of national security, public safety or the economic well-being of the country, for the prevention of disorder or crime, for the protection of health or morals, or for the protection of the rights and freedoms of others."
Paragraph 2 goes further than the word 'unreasonable' in telling us when a search is permissible. A search of a bag for a knife can be justified under grounds including 'public safety,' 'the prevention of disorder or crime' and the 'protection of the rights and freedoms of others'.
Of course, teachers cannot be completely certain, even with that information. So the UK Government issued guidance:
"Schools are able to ‘screen’ all pupils for knives at any time, without consent, even if there is no obvious reason for suspicion (screening is when an electronic ‘wand’ or a screening arch is used to find metallic objects). They can also search any pupil for a knife without consent if they have reasonable grounds for suspicion, or call in the police to conduct a search.
If a pupil refuses to be searched or screened, the school can refuse to have the pupil on the premises."
I suspect that, if they thought a student had a knife and might use it, teachers would prefer to call in a police officer anyway (who would have the training and legal powers to act) rather than carry out a search without consent. Otherwise - in addition to any risk of being attacked - the teacher would risk civil action and criminal prosecution for assault, under the common law (not human rights law) which could be career-ending.
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Albertus:
... my objection is to the appellate jurisdiction of the court in Strasbourg ...
Does it help to know that the European Court of Human Rights doesn't have an appellate jurisidction in relation to decisions by UK courts? More information is here (scroll down to 'Relationship with the European Court of Human Rights').
[ 18. May 2010, 08:50: Message edited by: Alwyn ]
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
Indeed; the main point of the HRA was to directly incorporate the Convention into UK law, thus rendering the ECHR's jurisdiction unecessary.
Posted by ken (# 2460) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Indeed; the main point of the HRA was to directly incorporate the Convention into UK law, thus rendering the ECHR's jurisdiction unecessary.
Which seeing as it is a codification of English legal principles anyway, simplified things greatly.
Posted by Pre-cambrian (# 2055) on
:
And making null and void all those scares about UK cases being heard by judges from alien legal backgrounds.
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
:
Matt Black, ken and Pre-Cambrian all make good points.
It is worth pointing out, as well, that the ECHR was never intended to be a stand-alone "Bill of Rights" (or equivalent) upon which all of a country's civil, legal, religious, political, social and economic rights should be based. It was intended only as a backstop, to set a very general "floor" below which no civilised country should fall.
Most other signatories have their own (often more detailed and more comprehensive) sets of rights enumerated in their own Constitutions. The UK is unusual in this respect, in not having a Constitution of that sort - which means that we have forced into reliance (or possibly over-reliance) on the ECHR instead.
Posted by Albertus (# 13356) on
:
OK, fair point about the appellate jurisdiction of the ECHR. I was posting in a hurry and didn't get my facts straight.
However, I think I'm right in saying that the UK courts applying the HRA do so in the context of the ECHR's jurisprudence- which does come from ratehr a different point than ours generally does.
As for the Convention/ HRA codifying common law rights- if so (and I'll agree that the convention as originally written does this)- in that case, why bother with them? The point is that our domestic laws safeguard most if not all of what's in the HRA/ Convention - so we could quite happily do without them. But we do need to support the Convention because there are member states of the Council of Europe where the extra protection is required.
[ 18. May 2010, 17:42: Message edited by: Albertus ]
Posted by lowlands_boy (# 12497) on
:
And, right on cue, the government is to establish a commission to review the HRA, having failed to get an alleged terrorist deported.
[ 18. May 2010, 20:33: Message edited by: lowlands_boy ]
Posted by RadicalWhig (# 13190) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Albertus:
<...>in that case, why bother with them?
<...> The point is that our domestic laws safeguard most if not all of what's in the HRA/ Convention - so we could quite happily do without them.
Two words: Parliamentary Sovereignty.
That pernicious, destructive, illiberal and undemocratic doctrine of English law (it has never been fully accepted in Scots law, but that's ignored) means that the Government, backed by a well-whipped majority in both houses, can strip us of our most important and fundamental right without any means of constitutional protection. The litany of rights which have been eroded and restricted by "tough" governments eager to "do something" about crime, terrorism, hippies and protesters, would go on for a long time. At least, in the absence of a proper Constitution, ECHR and HRA provide some minimal protection.
Posted by Mad Cat (# 9104) on
:
<tangent>
Separated at birth?
The Deputy Prime Minister
Chandler Bing
</tangent>
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Albertus:
I think I'm right in saying that the UK courts applying the HRA do so in the context of the ECHR's jurisprudence- which does come from ratehr a different point than ours generally does.
You're right, UK courts 'take into account' decisions of the European Court of Human Rights when applying the HRA. They are required to do so by section 2 of the HRA; even if that requirement didn't exist, it's normal for senior judges to take into account relevant decisions from other jurisdictions, as Sober Preacher's Kid pointed out earlier; for example, in Hirst v UK, UK judges took into account jurisprudence of the Supreme Court of Canada.
Dominic Grieve had a fair point when he argued that UK judges in Ullah interpreted 'take into account' to mean something much more than that. However, this is (arguably) a wrong turn by UK judges and is not a problem inherent in the HRA.
You wrote that the Court's jurisprudence 'comes from rather a different point'. Would you be willing to say more about what you mean by that? What, specifically, you see as the downside of that?
Posted by Jolly Jape (# 3296) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
And, right on cue, the government is to establish a commission to review the HRA, having failed to get an alleged terrorist deported.
Ah, but there's the rub: alleged terrorist. This guy has not had the evidence against him tested in a court of law. Why should he be deported to face torture just because the authorities here or there don't like the cut of his jib? I'd say that was the HRA working in an exactly correct manner - protecting the human rights of someone who may well be completely innocent, and is, indeed, deemed to be so under the Common Law.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
Better to keep your enemies (alleged or otherwise) close and under surveillance than to ship them to Pakistan and lose all contact with them until they resurface to commit an atrocity, surely?
Posted by Moth (# 2589) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jolly Jape:
quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
And, right on cue, the government is to establish a commission to review the HRA, having failed to get an alleged terrorist deported.
Ah, but there's the rub: alleged terrorist. This guy has not had the evidence against him tested in a court of law. Why should he be deported to face torture just because the authorities here or there don't like the cut of his jib? I'd say that was the HRA working in an exactly correct manner - protecting the human rights of someone who may well be completely innocent, and is, indeed, deemed to be so under the Common Law.
The worrying thing is that the authorities don't seem well able to prosecute alleged terrorists. If they are so convinced that he is a danger (and they may well be right) what is wrong with our criminal law/laws of evidence that his prosecution is impossible? Alternatively, why has the police investigation not turned up enough evidence?
Posted by Inger (# 15285) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
And, right on cue, the government is to establish a commission to review the HRA, having failed to get an alleged terrorist deported.
I know this is being 'blamed' on the HRA, but aren't there other international conventions that prevent the deportation of people to places where they may face death or torture? I was under the impression that that was the case.
Isn't that in fact the basis for the whole asylum system? That Britain (like other countries, and not just European ones) has an obligation to protect people who may face death or torture?
Edited to add afterthought.
[ 19. May 2010, 09:52: Message edited by: Inger ]
Posted by Marvin the Martian (# 4360) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Inger:
I know this is being 'blamed' on the HRA, but aren't there other international conventions that prevent the deportation of people to places where they may face death or torture? I was under the impression that that was the case.
We need another Australia - somewhere we can send them that won't be too bad for them, but where they'll be well and truly out of our hair.
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Better to keep your enemies (alleged or otherwise) close and under surveillance than to ship them to Pakistan and lose all contact with them until they resurface to commit an atrocity, surely?
For once, Matt I agree. A more difficult question in the abstract would be, even if it is against our national interests should we refrain from sending someone back who may face torture.
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
We need another Australia - somewhere we can send them that won't be too bad for them, but where they'll be well and truly out of our hair.
Great. Then we'll never win at any sport.
AFZ
Posted by aumbry (# 436) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Moth:
quote:
Originally posted by Jolly Jape:
quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
And, right on cue, the government is to establish a commission to review the HRA, having failed to get an alleged terrorist deported.
Ah, but there's the rub: alleged terrorist. This guy has not had the evidence against him tested in a court of law. Why should he be deported to face torture just because the authorities here or there don't like the cut of his jib? I'd say that was the HRA working in an exactly correct manner - protecting the human rights of someone who may well be completely innocent, and is, indeed, deemed to be so under the Common Law.
The worrying thing is that the authorities don't seem well able to prosecute alleged terrorists. If they are so convinced that he is a danger (and they may well be right) what is wrong with our criminal law/laws of evidence that his prosecution is impossible? Alternatively, why has the police investigation not turned up enough evidence?
I think the problem is that for a conviction to be successful the intelligence gathering that brings these people to the authorities' notice would be thoroughly compromised.
It is quite extraordinary that foreigners who are considered dangerous cannot be removed from this country back to their homeland so that we have the odd situation whereby a person coming here to work can be deported without fuss whereas a person who may be intending to blow us up cannot be.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by aumbry:
quote:
Originally posted by Moth:
quote:
Originally posted by Jolly Jape:
quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
And, right on cue, the government is to establish a commission to review the HRA, having failed to get an alleged terrorist deported.
Ah, but there's the rub: alleged terrorist. This guy has not had the evidence against him tested in a court of law. Why should he be deported to face torture just because the authorities here or there don't like the cut of his jib? I'd say that was the HRA working in an exactly correct manner - protecting the human rights of someone who may well be completely innocent, and is, indeed, deemed to be so under the Common Law.
The worrying thing is that the authorities don't seem well able to prosecute alleged terrorists. If they are so convinced that he is a danger (and they may well be right) what is wrong with our criminal law/laws of evidence that his prosecution is impossible? Alternatively, why has the police investigation not turned up enough evidence?
I think the problem is that for a conviction to be successful the intelligence gathering that brings these people to the authorities' notice would be thoroughly compromised.
It is quite extraordinary that foreigners who are considered dangerous cannot be removed from this country back to their homeland so that we have the odd situation whereby a person coming here to work can be deported without fuss whereas a person who may be intending to blow us up cannot be.
Isn't it just as surprising that alleged fraudsters are allowed to buy properties, direct companies and employ people, yet it happens all the time. No, the allegations haven't been proven beyond reasonable doubt in a court.
If the national security case really is so strong, charge them, try them and then start the debates on whether they should be detained here or "in their homeland". Until then, habeus corpus. Even if they are foreigners, who as any fule kno are lower than whale shit.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
Isn't this why we have the spooks and 00s?
Posted by aumbry (# 436) on
:
You should not need to have as your threshold a criminal conviction if the matter is of deportation of a foreign national with no right to be here.
Plenty of people are deported for lots of less serious reasons and no trial and conviction is required.
[ 19. May 2010, 11:11: Message edited by: aumbry ]
Posted by aumbry (# 436) on
:
Habeous Corpus sounds good but is irrelevant.
Posted by lowlands_boy (# 12497) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
quote:
Originally posted by aumbry:
quote:
Originally posted by Moth:
quote:
Originally posted by Jolly Jape:
quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
And, right on cue, the government is to establish a commission to review the HRA, having failed to get an alleged terrorist deported.
Ah, but there's the rub: alleged terrorist. This guy has not had the evidence against him tested in a court of law. Why should he be deported to face torture just because the authorities here or there don't like the cut of his jib? I'd say that was the HRA working in an exactly correct manner - protecting the human rights of someone who may well be completely innocent, and is, indeed, deemed to be so under the Common Law.
The worrying thing is that the authorities don't seem well able to prosecute alleged terrorists. If they are so convinced that he is a danger (and they may well be right) what is wrong with our criminal law/laws of evidence that his prosecution is impossible? Alternatively, why has the police investigation not turned up enough evidence?
I think the problem is that for a conviction to be successful the intelligence gathering that brings these people to the authorities' notice would be thoroughly compromised.
It is quite extraordinary that foreigners who are considered dangerous cannot be removed from this country back to their homeland so that we have the odd situation whereby a person coming here to work can be deported without fuss whereas a person who may be intending to blow us up cannot be.
Isn't it just as surprising that alleged fraudsters are allowed to buy properties, direct companies and employ people, yet it happens all the time. No, the allegations haven't been proven beyond reasonable doubt in a court.
If the national security case really is so strong, charge them, try them and then start the debates on whether they should be detained here or "in their homeland". Until then, habeus corpus. Even if they are foreigners, who as any fule kno are lower than whale shit.
Is it proven beyond reasonable doubt that he will face torture in Pakistan ? Or is the burden of proof lower for that ? A number of his co-accused appear to have returned voluntarily to Pakistan. Apparently, one of the two in question is still in prison anyway under immigration powers.
How about he is now subject to the same asylum application procedure as any other asylum applicant ?
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by aumbry:
You should not need to have as your threshold a criminal conviction if the matter is of deportation of a foreign national with no right to be here.
Plenty of people are deported for lots of less serious reasons and no trial and conviction is required.
Yes, many are deported for more reason than they have no right to reside here. The alleged terrorists also have no right to remain but, crucially, they were and are in danger of their lives were they to return to their homeland.
Still, they are foreigners of a different race and religion, so what duty do we have for our fellow man?
btw, if habeus corpus for one it is irrelevant for all.
lowlands boy: I don't know what, if any, burden of proof there is. Maybe he/they will apply for asylum.
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
And on what basis is it alleged that their lives are in danger? It seems that there are a lot of allegations flying around in this case.
Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
And on what basis is it alleged that their lives are in danger? It seems that there are a lot of allegations flying around in this case.
Here we go again. On the basis of the evidence presented to the Special Immigration Appeals Commission. That commission also stated that the men were a security risk to the UK, but that was the assessment from the intelligence services, not a court judgement, and we have had some iffy intelligence assessments in the recent past.
Posted by lowlands_boy (# 12497) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
quote:
Originally posted by aumbry:
You should not need to have as your threshold a criminal conviction if the matter is of deportation of a foreign national with no right to be here.
Plenty of people are deported for lots of less serious reasons and no trial and conviction is required.
Yes, many are deported for more reason than they have no right to reside here. The alleged terrorists also have no right to remain but, crucially, they were and are in danger of their lives were they to return to their homeland.
Still, they are foreigners of a different race and religion, so what duty do we have for our fellow man?
btw, if habeus corpus for one it is irrelevant for all.
lowlands boy: I don't know what, if any, burden of proof there is. Maybe he/they will apply for asylum.
But you use the word alleged in connection with their activities, since it is not proven in court beyond reasonable doubt, although this was the SIAC judgement. You then say, without any qualification,
quote:
crucially, they were and are in danger of their lives were they to return to their homeland
as if this were more than an allegation, i.e. proven,even though this also emanates from the SIAC judgement
So you seem quite happy not to accept the SIAC judgement that they are terrorists, but happy to accept that they shouldn't be sent back. Which made me wonder if you thought the burden of proof was different for those two things ?
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by aumbry:
It is quite extraordinary that foreigners who are considered dangerous cannot be removed from this country back to their homeland so that we have the odd situation whereby a person coming here to work can be deported without fuss whereas a person who may be intending to blow us up cannot be.
The general rule is that foreigners who are considered dangerous can be removed. The exception is that they cannot be removed if there is a real risk of that they would be tortured or killed.
Do you want there to be more, or fewer, people in the world who are willing to carry out terrorist attacks against British people? If the UK Government hands over people to be tortured, will there be more, or fewer people in the world who hate Britain?
Torture creates martyrs. Terrorist groups like to see themselves as martyrs; they call their attacks 'martyrdom operations'. Fair trials show the world that we follow our own rules. Fair trials show that terrorists are criminals, not martyrs. The right place for a terrorist is a cell in a maximum security prison, not a torture chamber.
quote:
Originally posted by aumbry:
I think the problem is that for a conviction to be successful the intelligence gathering that brings these people to the authorities' notice would be thoroughly compromised.
Do you think it will be news to terrorist groups that Western intelligence agencies bug their phones? Conor Gearty and the Society of Conservative Lawyers and Liberty (plus a former Commissioner of the Metropolitan police and a former Director of MI5) are right - the law should be changed to allow the use of intercept evidence.
If we don't have the evidence for a trial, as Matt Black argued, it's better to keep them under surveillance than to hand them over to torturers (and create martyrs).
Posted by Matt Black (# 2210) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
And on what basis is it alleged that their lives are in danger? It seems that there are a lot of allegations flying around in this case.
Here we go again. On the basis of the evidence presented to the Special Immigration Appeals Commission. That commission also stated that the men were a security risk to the UK, but that was the assessment from the intelligence services, not a court judgement, and we have had some iffy intelligence assessments in the recent past.
But there is no more proof for that than there is for the terrorism allegation. Why should a tribunal give greater weight to the one allegation? What's sauce for the goose etc
[ 19. May 2010, 11:58: Message edited by: Matt Black ]
Posted by lowlands_boy (# 12497) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
And on what basis is it alleged that their lives are in danger? It seems that there are a lot of allegations flying around in this case.
Here we go again. On the basis of the evidence presented to the Special Immigration Appeals Commission. That commission also stated that the men were a security risk to the UK, but that was the assessment from the intelligence services, not a court judgement, and we have had some iffy intelligence assessments in the recent past.
But there is no more proof for that than there is for the terrorism allegation. Why should a tribunal give greater weight to the one allegation? What's sauce for the goose etc
Yes. According to the siac's own page
quote:
As specified in the 1997 Act, the SIAC panel consists of three members. One must have held high judicial office; and one must be - or have been - a senior legally-qualified member of the Asylum & Immigration Tribunal (AIT). The third member will usually be someone who has experience of national security matters
Therefore to say
quote:
That commission also stated that the men were a security risk to the UK, but that was the assessment from the intelligence services, not a court judgement, and we have had some iffy intelligence assessments in the recent past.
is not correct - it is the SIAC's assessment of "the assessment from the intelligence services".
Posted by Gildas (# 525) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by aumbry:
I think the problem is that for a conviction to be successful the intelligence gathering that brings these people to the authorities' notice would be thoroughly compromised.
Do you think it will be news to terrorist groups that Western intelligence agencies bug their phones? Conor Gearty and the Society of Conservative Lawyers and Liberty (plus a former Commissioner of the Metropolitan police and a former Director of MI5) are right - the law should be changed to allow the use of intercept evidence.
If we don't have the evidence for a trial, as Matt Black argued, it's better to keep them under surveillance than to hand them over to torturers (and create martyrs). [/QB][/QUOTE]
It's not just wiretaps though. If your man inside Al Qaeda has to enter the witness box and withstand a flurry of cross examination from Rumpole of the Bailey he ain't going back to work on Monday. What if you've turned someone who has family back in Af-Pak? I broadly agree with you about intercepts but it's not the only problem.
That said, the position in English Law has always been that knowing is not enough, it is proving that is necessary to secure a conviction. There is no reason to change that. We didn't eliminate the presumption of innocence and the burden of proof beyond reasonable doubt when the Abwehr, KGB or IRA were operating on these shores. I see no reason why we should regard a bunch of hamfisted Islamonumpties as being greater cause to give up our liberties for a mess of security service pottage.
Incidentally, I imagine the security services are well aware that the British courts frown on the interogation methods of the Pakistani Counter Terrorist Service. I wonder if cases of this sort are not a kind of psyops directed at the British government, in order to bully them into abandoning our various human rights commitments and against the persons concerned who, lets face it, is going to be regarded as being well and truly blown by his alleged comrades.
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
Is it proven beyond reasonable doubt that he will face torture in Pakistan ? Or is the burden of proof lower for that ?
The standard of proof is lower in 'risk of torture' cases for the same reasons that the standard of proof is higher in a criminal trial.
The reasons are (I believe) about the consequences if a wrong decision is made, and the fact that the State (one side in the case) is more powerful than individual(s) on the other side.
(Gildas - I agree that wiretaps are not the only problem and that we should not give up our liberties)
[ 19. May 2010, 12:56: Message edited by: Alwyn ]
Posted by Ender's Shadow (# 2272) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Gildas:
That said, the position in English Law has always been that knowing is not enough, it is proving that is necessary to secure a conviction. There is no reason to change that. We didn't eliminate the presumption of innocence and the burden of proof beyond reasonable doubt when the Abwehr, KGB or IRA were operating on these shores. I see no reason why we should regard a bunch of hamfisted Islamonumpties as being greater cause to give up our liberties for a mess of security service pottage.
I'm pretty certain that Habeas Corpus was suspended in the UK during WWII, and we resorted to trials without juries in Northern Ireland during the Troubles. The problem is that the scale of damage being attempted by Al Quida is far greater than that achieved by the IRA, and they have no compunction about killing people, including themselves, in a way radically different to the attitude of the IRA. They are thus perceived to be a far greater threat...
The issue about intercept evidence is problematic. This story explains the problem - a issue of Common Law rights, rather than the HRA ironically enough.
Posted by Alwyn (# 4380) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ender's Shadow:
This story explains the problem - a issue of Common Law rights, rather than the HRA ironically enough.
If the use of intercept evidence in criminal trials is really that problematic, and if the reasons given are the real reasons for not using it, how come intercept evidence was successfully used in the trial of Ian Huntley?
"Whilst Ian Huntley was held in custody in relation to his suspected involvement with the murder of Holly Wells and Jessica Chapman, two phone calls that he had made were intercepted, without the participants’ knowledge at the time, and the detail of what was said was presented in evidence in court." (Society of Conservative Lawyers, p. 6)
What are the real reasons why they're reluctant to use intercept evidence? Keir Starmer QC, Director of Public Prosecutions, said:
"The true reason for the prohibition on admitting telephone tap evidence in court is that the Security and Intelligence Services do not, unless they regard the task as necessary for their own purposes, follow leads or events which the material in question records so as to establish an evidential trail. As Mr. Justice Newman recently observed:
'The Security Service material … is not recorded and prepared for the purposes of being presented and used as evidence in an adversarial hearing'.
Professor Conor Gearty put it more bluntly in an article he wrote for the London Review of Books in March 2005:
'The intelligence services have never understood the need for a criminal process: their ideal world would be one in which official suspicion led straight to incarceration. That is why they so fervently oppose the idea that any of the ‘evidence’ they build up should be exposed to the rigours of a criminal trial'" (source, p. 12)
But Keir Starmer isn't an expert on prosecutions ... no, wait, what's his job again?
Posted by aumbry (# 436) on
:
It seems ironic that as suspected Al Khaida members they cannot be deported from Britain in case they might be subject to torture in Pakistan but once in Pakistan* as members of AK they would be a legitimate target for British and American forces to kill as enemy taliban.
All a product of the strange topsy turvey world of liberal governments that are keen on warmongering.
*To the extent at least that they are within drone range of Afghanistan.
Posted by Nightlamp (# 266) on
:
After having my pension savaged by Gordon Brown my alternative means of saving has been to buy a very small second home to rent out. The new government intends to destroy this investment. Marvellous. Why do Governments punish savers?
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
Yes, let's perpetuate the lie that the world-wide economic and banking crisis is all Labour's fault.
No-one is saying that. What we're saying is the seriousness of the effect it's had on Britain is Labour's fault.
I know it's probably a mistake to be ressurecting this thread but here goes:
quote:
Our Prime minister, yesterday:
Mr Cameron started his speech by saying problems were "even worse than we thought" and blamed the last Labour government for the "debt crisis".
He accused them of a "public sector splurge" at a time when the private sector was shrinking.
And he said figures which the Labour government had refused to publish showed the UK would be paying £70bn in debt interest within five years - more than it spent on schools in England, tackling climate change and transport.
I am horrified by this extreme dishonesty. And with the important exception of Andrew Neal on the BBC's daily Politics show, the complete lack of any questioning of this by the media... BBC iPlayer
Let's just be clear on a couple of things:
1. The deficit is quite big. No one ever said otherwise.
2. It's smaller than the projections showed - by £11Bn compared to pre-election figures and by £23bn compared to the 2009 Budget's projection by Alistair Darling (Then Chancellor). So the main thrust of our exalted leaders speach is entirely untrue.
3. Whilst, there is a wide range of views amoungst economists about the deficit, the debt and how and when this should be tackled, there is one thing they all agree on. Growth is the key. Economic growth is how you fix the deficit. Far more than tax increases, far more than spending cuts.
Three things to note:
- firstly the comparison with Canada is very false - they were able to grow by exporting to the vibrate USA economy - we don't have such opportunities.
- secondly, Cameron's complaint about the government spending over the past 18months - 2 years is ludicrous. No-one across the G20 did not think that fiscal stimulus was vital then - that's why we've had increasing public expenditure during private shrinkage! It's all about growth.
- Thirdly, Spain, fearing the markets brought in big public sector cuts to try to avoid a down-grading of their credit rating. This resulted in reduction in growth predictions and thus a down-grading of their credit rating.
4. The comment about interest payments. The £70bn is not new at all. What really annoys me though is the complaint that interest payments are higher than the education budget. This is true. It is however not news. It was also true in 1996.
This is all about writing a narrative that will enable Cameron to stand for reelction on the platform We know we've wrecked the country but it wasn't our fault...
And what worries me most is that I think they'll get away with it.
AFZ
Posted by Spawn (# 4867) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
This is all about writing a narrative that will enable Cameron to stand for reelction on the platform We know we've wrecked the country but it wasn't our fault...
And what worries me most is that I think they'll get away with it.
AFZ
Yes, it is all about writing a new narrative. In fact, by preparing the public for the very worst there is a small possibility that the pain won't be quite as bad and the Conservatives can get re-elected. However this is not half as dishonest as the Labour narrative that Gordon Brown heroically saved the world.
Posted by alienfromzog (# 5327) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Spawn:
<snip> However this is not half as dishonest as the Labour narrative that Gordon Brown heroically saved the world.
Seriously? you really believe that?
I can understand that people don't like Labour.
I can understand that people don't like Gordon Brown.
But this takes some serious bias...
Were David Cameron's statements demonstrably untrue? Yes. Just ask Andrew Neal.
Was Gordon Brown's leadership significant in the co-ordinated worldwide response to the economic crisis? Well, let's see what America Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman has to say?
quote:
New York Times Article (2008):
Luckily for the world economy, however, Gordon Brown and his officials are making sense. And they may have shown us the way through this crisis.
How much blame Gordon Brown should take for the causing of the Banking crisis is a matter of debate. The credit that he and Alastair Darling should get for the success of managing the crisis (in a fair world) shouldn't be.
AFZ
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