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am determined that Scotland will have the ability to reconsider the question of independence and to do so before the UK leaves the EU - if that is necessary to protect our country's interests.

So, I can confirm today that the Independence Referendum Bill will be published for consultation next week.

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Originally posted by Arethosemyfeet:
It looks like we're screwed economically either way. I think we've probably got more chance of salvaging something from the wreckage of the UK post-Brexit as an independent nation not shackled to the lunatics who got us into this mess.

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Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
Plus which there are other EU members who were reportedly not keen on giving membership to an independent Scotland as they didn't want to encourage other breakaway regions such as the Catalan and Basque scenarios in Spain.

But as Alan says, this time Scotland will surely already have been taken out as part of the UK, so it wouldn't necessarily be the same argument about allowing a breakaway nation in.

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Originally posted by Tubbs:

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Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
Plus which there are other EU members who were reportedly not keen on giving membership to an independent Scotland as they didn't want to encourage other breakaway regions such as the Catalan and Basque scenarios in Spain.

But as Alan says, this time Scotland will surely already have been taken out as part of the UK, so it wouldn't necessarily be the same argument about allowing a breakaway nation in.

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Given that Spain is still claiming sovereignty over a country they ceded in the 1700’s and keeps telling them to go away, I wouldn’t rely on logic. It’s possible that some of the current members might take one look at the newly independent Scotland and decide that allowing them EU / EETA membership would cause them too much trouble. It would still be a breakaway nation. Just a breakaway nation from a country that’s already left the EU.

EETA membership might be the best option rather than full blown EU membership. It would give them access to the Single Market but enable them to keep control of their fisheries, relationship with the UK and avoid the EU’s fiscal targets. The EU allows members to spend approximately 3% more than they bring it and Scotland spends about 15%.

Tubbs

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Originally posted by Callan:
Giving Scotland a good deal whilst giving the rUK an extremely bad one would send a hell of a lesson to other countries tempted by the primrose path of right-wing populism. If I was Frau Merkel I'd be sorely tempted.

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Originally posted by Callan:
The SNP castigated the Unionists last time for 'Project Fear' claiming that Westminster, despite all its other sins and wickednesses would make sure that Scotland had a good deal out of enlightened self-interest

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Originally posted by Callan:

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Originally posted by Tubbs:

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Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
Plus which there are other EU members who were reportedly not keen on giving membership to an independent Scotland as they didn't want to encourage other breakaway regions such as the Catalan and Basque scenarios in Spain.

But as Alan says, this time Scotland will surely already have been taken out as part of the UK, so it wouldn't necessarily be the same argument about allowing a breakaway nation in.

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Given that Spain is still claiming sovereignty over a country they ceded in the 1700’s and keeps telling them to go away, I wouldn’t rely on logic. It’s possible that some of the current members might take one look at the newly independent Scotland and decide that allowing them EU / EETA membership would cause them too much trouble. It would still be a breakaway nation. Just a breakaway nation from a country that’s already left the EU.

EETA membership might be the best option rather than full blown EU membership. It would give them access to the Single Market but enable them to keep control of their fisheries, relationship with the UK and avoid the EU’s fiscal targets. The EU allows members to spend approximately 3% more than they bring it and Scotland spends about 15%.

Tubbs

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Giving Scotland a good deal whilst giving the rUK an extremely bad one would send a hell of a lesson to other countries tempted by the primrose path of right-wing populism. If I was Frau Merkel I'd be sorely tempted.

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How? Both nations are on the same primrose path, but with different destinations. Nationalism is nationalism. One sort really isn't any better than another. (Sorry, but it isn't).

Spain could still nix it.

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Originally posted by no prophet's flag is set so...:
where does Scotland get its imports, who does it export to? and all- vice versa.

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Originally posted by Sipech:
The poison of nationalism strikes again. The SNP and the cognitive dissonance of Scottish voters are two of the strings to the bow that plays the cacophonous tune which we all dance to. Let’s recap:

First, we had the IndyRef, which the SNP supported, but was opposed by the Conservatives (they want to rule as much as possible) and Labour (knowing they couldn’t form a majority without Scottish seats). The SNP take any critique of Scottish independence as dismiss it as “Project Fear”, but ultimately a small majority vote to remain.

Second, Labour is accused of opposing the national will, siding with the Tories and are then pretty much kicked out of Scotland at the following general election. Meaning that even though the Conservatives had a small majority, they were bound to far exceed the number of Labour seats.

Third, the nationalists in Scotland now come out nominally in favour of Remaining in Europe, in contradiction to their raison d’être of independence. But they are very half-hearted in their campaign, leaving it to the nationalists in England (not as many in Wales) to stoke up xenophobia whilst at the same time dismissing any critique of leaving the EU as “Project Fear” (an idea borrowed off the Scottish nationalists, but played more ruthlessly).

Fourth, the nationalists in England secure a narrow victory, leaving the EU, meanwhile the nationalists in Scotland, under the banner of independence, vote to remain.

So we now have a country riven by nationalist xenophobia and a second IndyRef. We have English nationalism directing xenophobia against pretty much everyone, Scottish nationalism directing xenophobia against the English and there are quite a few English lefties (myself included) who none too pleased with the Scots whose separatism seems set to doom the English to perpetual Conservative rule. We’ll end up with several countries, still divided by xenophobia, all hating each other but proudly waving their little flags, screaming “look, we’re independent” while the Tories, not content to serve in heaven, retain their Mephistophelian rule.

What a wonderful time to be alive!

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Originally posted by Callan:
Originally posted by Tubbs:

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How? Both nations are on the same primrose path, but with different destinations. Nationalism is nationalism. One sort really isn't any better than another. (Sorry, but it isn't).

Spain could still nix it.

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It would be epic trolling. The prospect of all those companies relocating to Edinburgh whilst the Brits queue patiently for hours for their monthly Marmite ration. The Spanish could nix it, I agree, but they might not for an informal understanding that, in ordinary circumstances, a secessionist region would be deemed to leaving the EU as well as the larger country a country which seceded in order to rejoin the EU would be treated differently. They could call it the Rajoy doctrine. Heck, Gib could vote to leave rUK and become part of Scotland and the Scots could do an Anglo-Irish Agreement type deal with Spain.

Much as I dislike nationalism, have a look at Alex Massie's blog at the Spectator where he rewrites some of the speeches at the Conservative Party Conference and replaces Scottish with British and English with foreign. As Massie points out, you cannot imagine the SNP using that sort of rhetoric. Where the Conservatives and UKIP are concerned you don't have to imagine anything at all. This is the biggest decision the country has taken since we decided that, actually, we had no plans to surrender to the Germans in 1940 and Scotland and England took different views on the matter. It would hardly be a surprise if this led Scots who, on balance, supported the Union to decide that a separation was in order and to decide that, on balance, Scottish Nationalism was a lesser evil than the sort of thing we have been treated to since Angry Nativism Day.

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Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:

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Originally posted by Callan:
The SNP castigated the Unionists last time for 'Project Fear' claiming that Westminster, despite all its other sins and wickednesses would make sure that Scotland had a good deal out of enlightened self-interest

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Funny that they weren't making the same argument about how the EU would react to Britain leaving. Or do Europeans not do enlightened self-interest?

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Originally posted by Dafyd:

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Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:

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Originally posted by Callan:
The SNP castigated the Unionists last time for 'Project Fear' claiming that Westminster, despite all its other sins and wickednesses would make sure that Scotland had a good deal out of enlightened self-interest

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Funny that they weren't making the same argument about how the EU would react to Britain leaving. Or do Europeans not do enlightened self-interest?

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Enlightened self-interest when dealing with someone basically trying to cooperate is not the same as enlightened self-interest when dealing with someone playing xenophobic silly buggers.

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Originally posted by Callan:
Neither George Osborne nor the EU Commission are monsters but they are politicians and politicians tend to put the people who vote for them ahead of the people who don't.

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Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:

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Originally posted by Callan:
Neither George Osborne nor the EU Commission are monsters but they are politicians and politicians tend to put the people who vote for them ahead of the people who don't.

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Not that the EU Commission is elected, of course...

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Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:

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Originally posted by Callan:
Neither George Osborne nor the EU Commission are monsters but they are politicians and politicians tend to put the people who vote for them ahead of the people who don't.

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Not that the EU Commission is elected, of course...

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Originally posted by mr cheesy:

If Scotland moves towards independence, I think the secret plan is to push NI towards either some kind of reunification with Eire or independence on its own.

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Of course, the other possibility is that Boris has no clue at all what he is doing

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Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Funny that they weren't making the same argument about how the EU would react to Britain leaving. Or do Europeans not do enlightened self-interest?

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Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Come March (or whenever they pull the trigger) the Irish peace process will in all likelihood go into free fall. There are two main issues that nobody in the rest of the UK seems to be either talking about or even know about. They are:

1. Currently there is much talk of a hard border. This is a complete reversal of what was agreed in the Good Friday Agreement. It would make life hell for those who live on the borders. Families will find themselves divided again by a hard border. There will be major issues for those who live in the Republic but work in Northern Ireland (and vice versa). There are many other issues surrounding this including many cross-border agreements, but I'm sure you get some of the picture.

2. The UK government seems to be making it clear that they will be voided of the European Court of Human Rights. Again, this formed a major part of the Good Friday Agreement and was instrumental in securing peace and gave assurances to people that they were not going to be treated as suspects or as any less than anyone else simply because they were from a particular section of the community. With the introduction of a new British law, which in all likelihood currently seems will differ quite significantly, the entire basis of the Good Friday Agreement would need to be renegotiated.

Frankly, it's a nightmare and add to that an independent Scotland that will make the Unionist community very twitchy and give good cause to the Loyalist paramilitary groups to up their game. Already, in and around Belfast, Loyalist paramilitary groups are gaining a foothold uncontrolled by the police force with just over one thousand recorded attacks, murders and intimidation activities in the last five years. Things are not good.

The question is, after Brexit happens and a Scottish independence vote looms, will Britain actually have the time, energy and resources to actually deal with this issue? I hope to God, for all our sakes, that they do. Common sense and realistic thinking tells me otherwise.

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Originally posted by Callan:
Originally posted by Mr Cheesy:

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Of course, the other possibility is that Boris has no clue at all what he is doing

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That strikes me as being the possibility which fits with the available evidence. It is not merely confined to Boris, of course.

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At the moment, Davies is saying that there won't be a hard border and Ireland has said this is one of their red lines for the Brexit deal.

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The UK isn't leaving the European Court of Human Rights. May mentioned it as a possibility but everyone else pooh'ed it so she's back tracked.

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Thank you for this, it is good to hear that. As recently as this morning there was talk of this - not as a possibility but as a fact - on a major Irish radio program. However, we wouldn't truly be Irish if we didn't have a good old moan about things that were never going to happen

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

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Originally posted by orfeo:
Oh look, let's just get on with the one world government and solve all these problems once and for all, eh?

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Imagine drafting legislation for that.

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(Paul Sinha, BBC)

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Originally posted by M.:
Sioni Sais says that the government, Prime Minister and one House of Parliament are not elected.

Members of the government are elected of course and the PM is also elected as a MP.

And the EU Commission has way, way more power than the House of Lords. I would suggest more power than the other two legs of the European three-legged stool.

M.

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Originally posted by Sioni Sais:

I'd like a more democratic European Commission too, but in the meantime I'd like to see some evidence that the European Commission has more power than the House of Lords that isn't Brexit rhetoric (ie, a pack of half truths, if not outright lies). The European Parliament might be less of a European Commission lapdog if the anti-EU parties actually showed up.

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Originally posted by Sober Preacher's Kid:
My friend Orfeo has likely not encountered a proper civil law Legislete* nor drafted Acts that must be compatible in a civil-code environment.

* I am told the last was Professor/Justice Pigeon, who passed from this earth in 1986.

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Originally posted by betjemaniac:
Scotland exports to rUK: £50.5bn goods and services
Scotland imports from rUK: £62.7bn g&s

Scotland exports to rest of world: £21.3bn g&s
Scotland imports from rest of world: £21.6bn g&s

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visceral dislike of anything English

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Originally posted by mr cheesy:
Tin-hat time: I think the long-term unspoken policy of the English Establishment is to let Northern Ireland swing in the wind.

If it came to it and Boris and chums couldn't talk the Republic into some kind of quasi-British border at their ports of entry, then I think they're just planning to tell the Northern Irish that they can like it or lump it - gambling on the fact that enough people are invested in the peace process to avoid all-out fighting.

Whatever the end result, I think NI is going to see barriers between it and E&W if it wants to continue with free borders with the Republic.

If Scotland moves towards independence, I think the secret plan is to push NI towards either some kind of reunification with Eire or independence on its own. Which would obviously be bloody stupid, but I can't see how else there could be the kinds of immigration barriers that the xenophobes seem set on having.

Of course, the other possibility is that Boris has no clue at all what he is doing and that he thinks things are going to work out alright simply on the basis of his bubbly personality and habit of using Latin and Greek at every opportunity.

If I was an Irish politician on either side of the border, I don't think I'd be thinking that the future was very rosy.

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