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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Indyref2
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Jack the Lass
Ship's airhead
# 3415
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Posted
So Nicola Sturgeon has fired the starting gun for a second Scottish independence referendum. What do shipmates think is going to happen this time round?
I think it's going to be another close one, and probably very rancorous. I am really hopeful that the obvious stumbling blocks to the Yes campaign last time (economics/currency/oil) will be more robustly addressed this time. I am not convinced that Nicola Sturgeon would have wanted a referendum so soon, and would have preferred to wait till the polls were more favourable, but clearly with Brexit time is not on her side. What may be on her side is that polls are much more in independence's favour at the start of the campaign than last time. But then who believes pollsters these days?
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"My body is a temple - it's big and doesn't move." (Jo Brand)
wiblog blipfoto blog
Posts: 5767 | From: the land of the deep-fried Mars Bar | Registered: Oct 2002
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
I have to confess to being puzzled. Will a vote to dissolve the Union with the United Kingdom actually take place and more importantly, if Westminster says no, does Holyrood have the power to take things further? Remember what happened the last time we were involved in a unilateral declaration of independence.
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
I thought that Brexit made it likely, and the signs of hard Brexit made it inevitable. After all, it's the raison d'etre of SNP, isn't it?
Rather weird to be going through negotiations over Brexit, plus Indyref2.
If Westminster said no, all hell would break loose, and eventually independence would be guaranteed.
I don't live in Scotland, but I would be a yes voter. The right to self determination is a powerful force, throughout the world.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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kingsfold
Shipmate
# 1726
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Posted
I think my dominant feeling is "Oh God not again."
Posts: 4473 | From: land of the wee midgie | Registered: Nov 2001
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
Labour as usual, are making themselves look stupid. Apparently, self-determination applies to Ireland, but not Scotland.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
if Westminster says no, does Holyrood have the power to take things further?
AIUI, an official referendum can only take place by Act of Parliament, which would presumably also need to guarantee that a Yes vote will lead to the dissolution of the Union (on some reasonable timescale). But, it's still fully in the hands of Westminster, and the Parliament there can over-rule anything that the Scottish Parliament decides.
I'll agree that the phrase "not again!" is going to be in the forefront of a lot of peoples minds. Three referendums within 5 years is a lot, and I don't think anyone has much appetite for it. Which is Nicola's dilemma, this is the time for a referendum even though no one really wants one at this time.
Nicola has being working hard to secure Scotlands future within the European single market with access to the European workforce, and despite the evidence that this is the wish of the majority of the UK population Mrs May has set course firmly for a much harder form of Brexit. The gulf between the Scottish Government and people and the UK government has been widening for months (though, I also believe that the gulf between the UK people and government has also widened). The only option really open to stop another referendum and (IMO) almost certain dissolution of the Union is to change the direction of Brexit to one that is more acceptable to the people of Scotland, and the rest of the UK.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Dafyd
Shipmate
# 5549
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by kingsfold:
I think my dominant feeling is "Oh God not again."
On the one hand, yes. On the other hand, do I want to live in the UK if the Tories spend the next eight years running it into the ground, sorry, taking back control?
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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams
Posts: 10567 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Feb 2004
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Wet Kipper
Circus Runaway
# 1654
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Boogie:
May I move to Scotland?
Tell us when, and we'll put the kettle on for you!
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- insert randomly chosen, potentially Deep and Meaningful™ song lyrics here -
Posts: 9841 | From: further up the Hill | Registered: Nov 2001
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
I think the Scottish government have suggested a 'differential agreement', meaning presumably that Scotland would retain some of the elements of a customs union or single market.
Of course, Mrs May cannot and dare not accept this, as she is looking over her shoulder at the headbangers, who would probably try to remove her.
In one way, it seems completely inevitable, yet also rather dream-like. Are we really living through a hard Brexit and Indyref2? What have I been smoking?
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
The only option really open to stop another referendum and (IMO) almost certain dissolution of the Union is to change the direction of Brexit to one that is more acceptable to the people of Scotland, and the rest of the UK.
That would be an entirely welcome option, which probably dooms it to oblivion.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
Heard last night via various Scottish friends, that this was coming, and I have to confess, dear wife and I whooped and yelled, and shouted unpleasant imprecations at May, hard Brexit, and various right-wing twats.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Sipech
Shipmate
# 16870
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by kingsfold:
I think my dominant feeling is "Oh God not again."
Agreed.
The cynical view that has some currency is that if you don't like the answer you get first time round in a "once in a generation" referendum, you ask again in a few years' time. I suppose it must mean life expectancy in Scotland is on the wane... ![[Roll Eyes]](rolleyes.gif)
The "yes" vote to Brexit, though, does mean that circumstances have substantially changed, so there is some justification for a renewed call.
It will be bitter, acrimonious and divisive. So no different from the first time round. Expect any challenge to one viewpoint from another to be dismissed out-of-hand as "project fear" and unreasonably sunny forecasts being peddled by both sides. ![[brick wall]](graemlins/brick_wall.gif)
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I try to be self-deprecating; I'm just not very good at it.
Twitter: http://twitter.com/TheAlethiophile
Posts: 3791 | From: On the corporate ladder | Registered: Jan 2012
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
It's not just Brexit, it's hard Brexit, and apparently, a complete rejection of any 'differential agreement', giving Scotland some elements of the customs union. I don't see what option the Scottish government has really.
[ 13. March 2017, 12:57: Message edited by: quetzalcoatl ]
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
There is no question that Brexit is a game-changer as far as Scottish independence goes.
Viewed from this distance, any such referendum would be about EU membership more than Scottish independence. Scotland as an independent country would certainly be well-placed to benefit from EU regional development funding.
There remains the question of just how willing the EU might be, not so much to welcome Scotland, but to give ideas to, say, Catalonia.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
There remains the question of just how willing the EU might be, not so much to welcome Scotland, but to give ideas to, say, Catalonia.
I think in the case where Brexit makes it easier for the EU to move in this direction, as it'll be seen as a reaction to a exceptional set of circumstances, rather than purely acceptance of the independence of part of another EU member (which the UK will not be by then anyway).
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sipech:
The cynical view that has some currency is that if you don't like the answer you get first time round in a "once in a generation" referendum, you ask again in a few years' time.
The question depends on the circumstances, change the circumstances and the question changes. So, in a way it's impossible to put the same question to the people twice. That is especially true when circumstances change significantly. The question will need to be formulated over the next year or so, taking into account the changes in the relationship between the UK and EU, and the changes to devolution promised and partially delivered since 2014. The remaining within the UK position is now significantly different. And, there will be repurcussion on the details of the independence proposal - though I would expect the white paper to still carry forward much of the 2014 version.
The reduced time from the "generation" has been inevitable since Mr Cameron showed up the Better Together claims to be a bunch of fibs. You can't logically declare that the only way to ensure Scotland remains in the EU is for Scotland to remain in the UK and then put a commitment to a referendum on UK membership of the EU in your party manifesto - much less actually procede with such a referendum.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Kwesi
Shipmate
# 10274
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Posted
quezalcoati quote:
I don't live in Scotland, but I would be a yes voter. The right to self determination is a powerful force, throughout the world.
What is the 'self' that is being 'determined'?
Posts: 1641 | From: South Ofankor | Registered: Sep 2005
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
I think that is going to be a killer argument - Scots were promised that a No vote meant staying in the EU. Now we have, not just Brexit, but hard Brexit, apparently, and no concessions for Scotland.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Kwesi:
quezalcoati quote:
I don't live in Scotland, but I would be a yes voter. The right to self determination is a powerful force, throughout the world.
What is the 'self' that is being 'determined'?
National self-determination. See Ireland. I think it's in the UN Charter.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
There is no question that Brexit is a game-changer as far as Scottish independence goes.
Viewed from this distance, any such referendum would be about EU membership more than Scottish independence.
Absolutely. EU membership is the trump card for the SNP. And, as I've said, the only option the UK government has to defeat that card is to change tack on Brexit to something that gives the people of Scotland something much closer to what we want - free access to the single market, access to the European labour market. A differential agreement where Scotland has something different from the rest of the UK would be difficult, seeking that for the whole UK would be much more practical (and, IMO welcome to the majority of the UK population). If Mrs May was to head down that road, and soon, then the Scottish government would probably struggle to get a request for IndyRef2 through the Scottish Parliament, and will probably not even try, waiting for a more opportune moment (remember Nicola and the SNP don't want to hold a referendum on independence - they want to win a referendum on independence).
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
And it's very unlikely that Mrs May could even attempt any 'differential agreement'. The head bangers would have the removal vans round at number 10, before you could say, 'harmonisation of regulations'.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Tubbs
Miss Congeniality
# 440
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
I think that is going to be a killer argument - Scots were promised that a No vote meant staying in the EU. Now we have, not just Brexit, but hard Brexit, apparently, and no concessions for Scotland.
But some of the concessions that Scotland asked for - like remaining in the single market, separate deals etc - were turned down by the EU, not just London. Some of the experts who contributed to the policy document told the Nats that what they were asking was impossible - but got ignored.
I suspect the EU will say Scotland can't apply until the terms of the exit from the Union are sorted. Which could take a while.
Even then, EU membership isn't a given. A few existing members have separatist moments they might not want to encourage. And do they want another net recipient rather than a contributor?
The EU's current position is that Scotland won't be treated as a special case, it needs to apply in the usual way. And meet all the criteria.
Legislation is fine, but the SNP might want to have a closer look at the economic fine print. As they will have deliver it and fund it all from Scotland's tax revenues.
David Cameron managed to break everything. We are all so screwed.
Tubbs
[ 13. March 2017, 13:34: Message edited by: Tubbs ]
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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am
Posts: 12701 | From: Someplace strange | Registered: Jun 2001
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Tubbs:
EU membership isn't a given.
Non-membership within the UK, however, is a given.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Tubbs
Miss Congeniality
# 440
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
quote:
Originally posted by Tubbs:
EU membership isn't a given.
Non-membership within the UK, however, is a given.
The worst case scenario for Scotland is out of the UK and vetoed as a member of the EU. Which is within the bounds of possibility.
Tubbs
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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am
Posts: 12701 | From: Someplace strange | Registered: Jun 2001
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Tubbs:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
quote:
Originally posted by Tubbs:
EU membership isn't a given.
Non-membership within the UK, however, is a given.
The worst case scenario for Scotland is out of the UK and vetoed as a member of the EU. Which is within the bounds of possibility.
Within the UK = not in the EU
Not in the UK and not in the EU is the same
Not in the UK and in the EU is a win
There's no lose option there - the worst case scenario is what we're heading for already.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Leorning Cniht
Shipmate
# 17564
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Within the UK = not in the EU
Not in the UK and not in the EU is the same
Not in the UK and in the EU is a win
There's no lose option there - the worst case scenario is what we're heading for already.
Only if you assume that the rump UK would treat an independent Scotland on a par with its own citizens, which is a little hopeful.
It doesn't seem consistent to me to argue that Scotland leaving the EU is going to be horrible, whereas Scotland leaving the UK makes no difference.
It is reasonable to argue that people in the last referendum were voting for Scotland in both the EU and UK. That no longer seems to be on offer.
Nicola Sturgeon is trying to offer the people of Scotland a choice between Scotland in the EU but not the UK and Scotland in the UK but not the EU, and argues that the former is better. She might be right.
But it might also be the case that what she ends up with is Scotland in neither the EU nor the UK, and I'm not sure you can make a coherent case for that being "the same" as Scotland in the UK but not the EU.
Being a small independent country as a member of the EU is one thing - you gain a measure of self-determination, but don't seem to lose economically because the EU market is still there.
Being a small independent country outside everything? That's a different kettle of fish.
Posts: 5026 | From: USA | Registered: Feb 2013
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
Only if you assume that the rump UK would treat an independent Scotland on a par with its own citizens, which is a little hopeful.
True, the evidence to support the idea that the UK government would treat anyone on the basis of rationality and common decency is thin on the ground. When the UK government has already decided to rip up trade deals with the entire G20 then kicking Scotland in the privates out of spite would be a consistent, irrational, course of action.
But, independence from a nation with a government willing to play political gains and no apparent aim except to make Britain White, Anglosaxon and Protestant is a major gain in it's own right. Especially for a country that isn't White, Anglosaxon and Protestant.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Leorning Cniht
Shipmate
# 17564
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
Only if you assume that the rump UK would treat an independent Scotland on a par with its own citizens, which is a little hopeful.
True, the evidence to support the idea that the UK government would treat anyone on the basis of rationality and common decency is thin on the ground. When the UK government has already decided to rip up trade deals with the entire G20 then kicking Scotland in the privates out of spite would be a consistent, irrational, course of action.
No, those are different things. We have spent countless pages agreeing that the UK can't leave the EU, yet keep all the benefits of being in the EU without any of the obligations. Why would you think Scotland could leave the UK and keep the benefits without the obligations?
I'd agree that it wouldn't be in the UK's interest to be spiteful towards an independent Scotland, and that free trade between the countries would make sense for both countries. But I also think that about the UK and the EU...
Posts: 5026 | From: USA | Registered: Feb 2013
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
Only if you assume that the rump UK would treat an independent Scotland on a par with its own citizens, which is a little hopeful.
True, the evidence to support the idea that the UK government would treat anyone on the basis of rationality and common decency is thin on the ground.
That is unreasonable. It's akin to the argument that the EU should treat the UK with special indulgence despite (if not because of!) it deciding to leave.
I would like to see the economic case for a UKexit/Scentry, if it can be made then I'd be cautiously in favour of the latter, but I think it's unreasonabe to assume rUK would be nice to Scotland for voting to leave.
[ 13. March 2017, 14:47: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Tubbs
Miss Congeniality
# 440
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Within the UK = not in the EU
Not in the UK and not in the EU is the same
Not in the UK and in the EU is a win
There's no lose option there - the worst case scenario is what we're heading for already.
Only if you assume that the rump UK would treat an independent Scotland on a par with its own citizens, which is a little hopeful.
It doesn't seem consistent to me to argue that Scotland leaving the EU is going to be horrible, whereas Scotland leaving the UK makes no difference.
It is reasonable to argue that people in the last referendum were voting for Scotland in both the EU and UK. That no longer seems to be on offer.
Nicola Sturgeon is trying to offer the people of Scotland a choice between Scotland in the EU but not the UK and Scotland in the UK but not the EU, and argues that the former is better. She might be right.
But it might also be the case that what she ends up with is Scotland in neither the EU nor the UK, and I'm not sure you can make a coherent case for that being "the same" as Scotland in the UK but not the EU.
Being a small independent country as a member of the EU is one thing - you gain a measure of self-determination, but don't seem to lose economically because the EU market is still there.
Being a small independent country outside everything? That's a different kettle of fish.
Pretty much. Out of the EU and out of the UK means being entirely self-funded. The Institute of Fiscal Studies - yeah, I know, boo! - thinks that Scotland currently spends £1,000 more head than it brings in. So it'll have to either cut services or increase tax after independence.
Scotland outside the UK but in the EU will have to meet the fiscal criteria. It's level of debt in relation to GDP isn't good. (Greece?!) So it'll either have to cut services or increase tax to meet them. It'll also have create things like a currency and a central bank from scratch.
I think independence is likely to prove as much a mixed blessing to Scotland as Brexit is to the rest of the UK.
Tubbs
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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am
Posts: 12701 | From: Someplace strange | Registered: Jun 2001
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
Only if you assume that the rump UK would treat an independent Scotland on a par with its own citizens, which is a little hopeful.
True, the evidence to support the idea that the UK government would treat anyone on the basis of rationality and common decency is thin on the ground.
That is unreasonable. It's akin to the argument that the EU should treat the UK with special indulgence despite (if not because of!) it deciding to leave.
No, it's not about special indulgence. It's about the attitude that comes with the negotiation. And, the evidence is clear that the UK government is currently treating no one on the basis of rationality or common decency. And, it's looking like it might be contagious - but, if you treat those you are about to enter into negotiations with with apparent contempt and disrespect one shouldn't be surprised if they return the favour.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Tubbs:
I think independence is likely to prove as much a mixed blessing to Scotland as Brexit is to the rest of the UK.
Well, since Brexit brings no blessings to the UK at all - except to be able to get rid of some of those non-white, non-Anglosaxon people (if you're the sort of person who considers that a benefit) - Scottish Independence can't do any worse.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
I think it's a gamble for the Scottish government, but surely it's a gamble that they have to take. They can't wait for years, while Mrs May negotiates a hard Brexit, which could take ten years.
That is political impotence.
I remember when Ireland was sneered at for being a poverty-stricken and priest-ridden island; you might say that, I couldn't possibly comment. So should Ireland have remained in the UK? WTF.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Leorning Cniht
Shipmate
# 17564
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Well, since Brexit brings no blessings to the UK at all - except to be able to get rid of some of those non-white, non-Anglosaxon people (if you're the sort of person who considers that a benefit) - Scottish Independence can't do any worse.
Shooting yourself in both kneecaps can't do any worse than shooting yourself in one kneecap?
Posts: 5026 | From: USA | Registered: Feb 2013
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
Much as I loathe Brexit, the economic numbers give it a chance of actually working. Whether this is the case for an independent Scotland, even in the EU, remains very much to be seen. Tubbs may not be a welcome voice for you here, but I think she is the voice of reason.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
aka the voice of pessimism.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
Man doth not live by bread alone, but it does help.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
I have to admire Mrs May for saying that Indyref2 will create division. Such an irony-fail takes some bottle.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
Man doth not live by bread alone, but it does help.
The Irish were told that they were too poor, too wee, and too superstitious, and they would be better off in the British Empire, under the sign of the butcher's apron, (Union Jack).
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
I don't claim to be an expert on partition, but I think both the economic and sociological stakes are entirely different now to what they were then. Fewer subsistence farmers for one thing.
I fear even the doughty Scots have been affected by an entitlement culture which will not take kindly to a large drop in services and/or tax hikes merely on the basis of the bright and quite possibly insubstantial hope of independence.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
Much as I loathe Brexit, the economic numbers give it a chance of actually working.
If by "actually working" you mean "not sliding rapidly to the economic status of Somalia" then I agree. If, on the other hand you mean what the pro-Brexit campaigners claim (being a world economic power) then not a chance. If the UK manages to retain it's position in the top seven economies (over a timescale of 20 years post Brexit, at least) would surprise me. And, that's just purely in terms of the numbers that rank economies. The loss of our cultural ties to Europe, degradation of our university teaching and research output, increasing opportunity for degrading workplace practices and abuses of human rights and countless other markers of civilisation and standard of life will all be negative.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
Yes I mean the former not the latter. Scotland, meanwhile, might not sink to the level of Somalia but I would expect it to be much worse off than rUK if it did not secure EU membership. Something like Romania, perhaps? (Which is not as bad as one might imagine but would be a big step down for Scotland).
[ 13. March 2017, 15:31: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
Hard Brexit could be catastrophic. Not because of tariffs, but because the current harmonized regulations would be gone. So if I want to export widgets to the EU, what do I do, if the EU does not recognize my ability to conform to EU regulations? And even worse, the UK government is saying that we need not conform? Eh?
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
I meant, with the above post, to say that the Scottish government is showing sanity by wanting to get away from this insanity. The headbangers, e.g. Redwood, are talking about WTO rules and 'we can walk away', meaning that we would end up with Free Enterprise Zones, with very little welfare, low paid workers, with little protection. A right-wing heaven, and a hell for ordinary people.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Tubbs
Miss Congeniality
# 440
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
Much as I loathe Brexit, the economic numbers give it a chance of actually working. Whether this is the case for an independent Scotland, even in the EU, remains very much to be seen. Tubbs may not be a welcome voice for you here, but I think she is the voice of reason.
This time I think the Nats will win. I thought the Brexiters would win too. Both are equally as stupid, vain, dishonest and short sighted but for different reasons.
Tubbs
[ 13. March 2017, 16:11: Message edited by: Tubbs ]
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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am
Posts: 12701 | From: Someplace strange | Registered: Jun 2001
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Tubbs
Miss Congeniality
# 440
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
Only if you assume that the rump UK would treat an independent Scotland on a par with its own citizens, which is a little hopeful.
True, the evidence to support the idea that the UK government would treat anyone on the basis of rationality and common decency is thin on the ground.
That is unreasonable. It's akin to the argument that the EU should treat the UK with special indulgence despite (if not because of!) it deciding to leave.
No, it's not about special indulgence. It's about the attitude that comes with the negotiation. And, the evidence is clear that the UK government is currently treating no one on the basis of rationality or common decency. And, it's looking like it might be contagious - but, if you treat those you are about to enter into negotiations with with apparent contempt and disrespect one shouldn't be surprised if they return the favour.
At least they're consistent ![[Big Grin]](biggrin.gif)
The exit from the union isn't going to pretty. Scotland is going to be worse off. As is the rest of the UK.
The rUK government will be under the same political pressures as the EU not to do Scotland any favours. They'll want to encourage the rest of the Union to stick together. They're directly accountable to English voters. Most of whom read press encouraging them to believe that Scotland gets all the subsidiaries, whines all the time and deserves no favours whatsoever. "Independence means independence".
The narrative that Scotland will end up with a bad post independence deal because the English are horrid is exactly the same technique being used by Brexiters to set the EU up as the fall guy when we don't all get the unicorns we were promised.
Tubbs
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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am
Posts: 12701 | From: Someplace strange | Registered: Jun 2001
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
It's just that the Brexiteers are free market zealots, who want to deregulate everything. Possibly, many people who voted Leave don't yet realize this, or that May is in their grip. What is the sensible thing to do? I refer you to Scottish Government, 13 March, 2017, announcement of proposal for Indyref2.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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anteater
Ship's pest-controller
# 11435
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Posted
I think the most likely outcome to a request from Sturgeon is for May (eventually) to agree to it taking place some time after the next UK Election, say in 2021-22.
This will - in my view - pass the test of reasonableness, simply on the grounds of the impossibility of simultaneously handling the Brexit negotiations with the Scottish referendum and subsequent negotiations. It would also be useful to place it after the next General Election.
I don't see what Sturgeon could do other than huff and puff and generally be a pain in the arse. I can't see SNP morphing into IRA and resorting to violence.
Could she take it to the ECJ? I don't know but I think it is unlikely that any international arbitrator would consider a postponement of her 1989-90 timescale unreasonable. Most lifetimes are actually more than 10 years.
She's mischief making but Nigel Farage has made a lifetime out of it, and in the end he got what he wanted. So as long as she retains the support of the people of Scotland, I don't see how she can or should be stopped.
Of course, if I were a pro-EU pro Scottish Independence I'd be as mad as some of posters on this thread. But I'm not. I dislike nationalism in most of its forms, and SNP certainly qualifies.
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Schnuffle schnuffle.
Posts: 2538 | From: UK | Registered: May 2006
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Dave W.
Shipmate
# 8765
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Hard Brexit could be catastrophic. Not because of tariffs, but because the current harmonized regulations would be gone. So if I want to export widgets to the EU, what do I do, if the EU does not recognize my ability to conform to EU regulations? And even worse, the UK government is saying that we need not conform? Eh?
You know, other countries outside the EU do export goods to it. Presumably you would just do what they do: get your products certified by EU regulators, just as EU manufacturers get their products certified by US regulators for sale in the US.
And is preserving trade relations with the EU worth the cost of worse trade relations with the rUK, which would seem to be the inevitable result of a hard Brexit? Surely Scotland as an EU member would be prevented by EU regulations from making special deals on its own with the rUK.
I understand that good trade relations all around might be the preferred option for many, but I find it hard to imagine that all the business Scotland currently does with with the rest of the UK would easily be made up in the EU market.
Posts: 2059 | From: the hub of the solar system | Registered: Nov 2004
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