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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Indyref2
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
It feels a bit like both sides are being rather contradictory; if a single simple referendum question was wrong to get out of the EU, why is it not wrong for getting out of the UK?
Well, of course, in both cases a "simple referendum question" is wrong. Both the UK leaving the EU and Scotland leaving the UK are very complex issues, with a range of possible outcomes. Therefore, neither can be answered in a "simple referendum question".
Assuming IndyRef2 follows the pattern of IndyRef1, then there will have been decades of political discussion about the issue of Scottish independence across the whole of the nation, through several dozen election cycles with pro-Independence candidates regularly gaining seats. There would be a meaningful discussion in Parliament, resulting in a substantial white paper describing the preference for the Scottish government in what they want from Independence related negotiation, supported by the majority of MSPs in a series of votes in Parliament. And, then an extended campaign to convince the Scottish people to accept or reject this proposal.
That's compared to a few years of inflammatory language from a bunch of purple rosetted idiots who couldn't even find a distillary, much less organise a piss up there, and who can only get someone into Parliament if they convince someone already elected for a different party to defect. Then, a few hours debate in Parliament about whether to have a referendum with barely a mention of the complex issues that Brexit would present. A "manifesto" for Leaving the EU that's barely more than a slogan on the side of a bus, and that's a work of fiction. And, then a mad dash to a referendum before people have a chance to think about the issues at all.
Yes, those are entirely comparable. Not.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Yes, those are entirely comparable. Not.
You seriously think that an Indy2 ref in less than 2 years time would be sufficient time to give voters a clear choice - even though it can't possibly be known then what it is that they're voting for/against wrt the British deal with the EU? I think you're so used to believing your own rhetoric that you've lost the ability to tell when it is complete bollocks.
[ 16. March 2017, 17:08: Message edited by: mr cheesy ]
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arse
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Dave W.
Shipmate
# 8765
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
It depends on the degree of convergence between various countries, doesn't it? Hard Brexit seems to indicate no convergence of regulations, so you go back to paper documentation of goods, which are checked at frontiers - this sounds disastrous; hence the talk of 30 mile queues at Dover. It's hard to believe that anybody sensible wants this, but you never know with the headbangers, who seem to regard the single market as 'betrayal'.
As to trade between Scotland and England, the degree of convergence would have to be negotiated. I suppose it might also be 'hard', but this seems peculiar to me - so London wants commercial suicide all round?
If independent Scotland's to be in the EU, how could trade between rUK and Scotland be any easier or harder than between rUK and any other EU country? If there are border and customs checks between rUK and the EU generally, there will have to be the same between rUK and Scotland as well.
Posts: 2059 | From: the hub of the solar system | Registered: Nov 2004
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Yes, those are entirely comparable. Not.
You seriously think that an Indy2 ref in less than 2 years time would be sufficient time to give voters a clear choice - even though it can't possibly be known then what it is that they're voting for/against wrt the British deal with the EU? I think you're so used to believing your own rhetoric that you've lost the ability to tell when it is complete bollocks.
Yes, I do. By this time next year, about when formal campaigning will kick off, there would have been an extensive Parliamentary debate drawing up a White Paper. Which, I see no reason to be much different from the 2014 White Paper - there would need to be revisions to the intent for Scotland to be an EU member as it would no longer be seeking to continue an existing membership, and will need to address the desired relationship with the rest of the UK (since that will no longer be covered under EU membership). That will give a clear indication of what the Scottish government would seek if given the go ahead by the electorate, which is one side of the choice.
Yes, there will be a small amount of uncertainty if the i's haven't been dotted and the t's crossed of the Brexit deal. But, do you expect Mrs May to suddenly change her mind about what she's seeking, especially after she triggers Article 50? We can be pretty certain that the flimsy White Paper they produced a few weeks ago will be approximately what the UK government is still seeking in a years time, or resigned to an even harder Brexit as the government seem to show no inclination to seek a Norway-like solution.
If we were starting from scratch, two years would indeed be insufficient time. But, we aren't starting from scratch. We're starting from decades of discussion about the issues, and in particular starting from the 2014 referendum campaign which has already worked through most of the issues.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
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PaulTH*
Shipmate
# 320
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Posted
While we've all learned not to trust opinion polls, they can be used as a guide when elections are far off. So there is no evidence that the people of Scotland are clamouring for another referendum before Brexit. The PM is, therefore, quite justified in kicking this into the long grass until the dust from Brexit has settled and the people of Scotland know what they're voting for. I strongly suspect that Scotland will vote for independence even though I believe passionately in the union, but the FM's timetable was designed to cause the maximum disruption and chaos. She isn't the only person speaking for Scotland.
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Yours in Christ
Paul
Posts: 6387 | From: White Cliffs Country | Registered: May 2001
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
I don't think there's a general desire for a referendum. Most people would much prefer to wait until sometime after 2030. However, there's a recognition that circumstances have forced it upon us.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Yes, I do. By this time next year, about when formal campaigning will kick off, there would have been an extensive Parliamentary debate drawing up a White Paper.
Well, while actual events may yet pull the same thing forward, Sturgeon said this afternoon "is not proposing #scotref now… but when the terms of Brexit clear and before it is too late to choose an alternative path. "
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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PaulTH*
Shipmate
# 320
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
I don't think there's a general desire for a referendum. Most people would much prefer to wait until sometime after 2030. However, there's a recognition that circumstances have forced it upon us.
This may be what the First Minister and the SNP hardliners think, but where is the evidence that the majority of Scots feel the same? The FM talked up this situation with comments like "I'm not bluffing" to the point where she couldn't back out of making the call. Whatever any of us may think of the merits of staying in the Single Market, it was never going to be possible for the British Government to make a separate deal for Scotland while maintaining the UK union. The only thing they could have done to assuage Nicola would have been to fight for the whole UK to stay in the SM, which would alienate millions of English voters. This is the problem Jeremy Corbyn faces with Labour voters. So what the FM did was set the bar impossibly high to trip up the Government. Scotland hasn't been forced into this situation. The SNP has brought it on.
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Yours in Christ
Paul
Posts: 6387 | From: White Cliffs Country | Registered: May 2001
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
If we were starting from scratch, two years would indeed be insufficient time. But, we aren't starting from scratch. We're starting from decades of discussion about the issues, and in particular starting from the 2014 referendum campaign which has already worked through most of the issues.
You are totally off-beam. Things are completely different to 2014; not least the dramatic reduction in the oil price, the decimation of the North Sea oil industry, the fact that May is triggering Article 50 etc and so on.
If you think that you can just recycle arguments from 2014 then you're madder than a bag of spanners.
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arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by PaulTH*:
The only thing they could have done to assuage Nicola would have been to fight for the whole UK to stay in the SM, which would alienate millions of English voters.
But, where is there evidence that there are "millions of English voters" who do not want the UK to remain in the Single Market? Remaining in the Single Market would be consistent with the June 2016 referendum result, which is as close as millions of English voters had had an opportunity to express their opinion on the subject.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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MarsmanTJ
Shipmate
# 8689
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Posted
For 'millions of English voters' read 'key hard line MPs in the Tory party to allow May to continue crushing austerity measures that benefit key Tory donors' and you have the truth of the matter.
If there is any democratic mandate at all, it is to remain in the Single Market. 48% of the country voted for Single Market+ (EU membership) and at least one of the major Leave groups campaigned explicitly that a vote to Leave meant moving from full European Union membership to membership of the Single Market.
Posts: 238 | Registered: Oct 2004
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
If we were starting from scratch, two years would indeed be insufficient time. But, we aren't starting from scratch. We're starting from decades of discussion about the issues, and in particular starting from the 2014 referendum campaign which has already worked through most of the issues.
You are totally off-beam. Things are completely different to 2014; not least the dramatic reduction in the oil price, the decimation of the North Sea oil industry, the fact that May is triggering Article 50 etc and so on.
If you think that you can just recycle arguments from 2014 then you're madder than a bag of spanners.
Who said anything about recycling the arguments from 2014? All I said was that we had an extensive discussion leading upto 2014, and subsequently. And, although there are some significant changes in circumstance, there are also a lot of things which haven't changed in that time.
The issues relating to Scotland becoming a full member of the EU haven't changed, the Spanish objections are the same. The questions of what to do with the Trident fleet are the same, the vote to renew that capability has simply extended the period over which the fleet needs to be based elsewhere. The decision about currency haven't changed, although whether Scotland really wants to be tied to a weakened pound needs to be answered. The political dominance of Westmonster over Holyrood has barely changed, and the disregard of Scotland displayed by the Tories has highlighted that. The restrictions on immigration to keep the racists south of the border happy still hinder our economic growth. The desire of the people of Scotland to provide quality education and healthcare free at the point of need remains, in contrast to the English government desire to charge for education and healthcare.
Brexit has changed some things, in particular it's going to create difficulties in trade and movement across the border if England doesn't retain access to the Single Market. But, it's not the only issue by a long shot. Much as the English might wish the discussion to be all about them and their idiotic decision to leave the EU.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Who said anything about recycling the arguments from 2014? All I said was that we had an extensive discussion leading upto 2014, and subsequently. And, although there are some significant changes in circumstance, there are also a lot of things which haven't changed in that time.
Enough things have changed for it to take way way longer than 2 years to have a reasoned debate about the future of the nation, never mind the fact that the British deal won't even have been decided by then. You want people to make a decision before they even know what the options are.
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arse
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
never mind the fact that the British deal won't even have been decided by then. You want people to make a decision before they even know what the options are.
The general picture of what the British government are seeking is already known, it was put in a short White Paper a few weeks ago. I guess we'll know quite soon after Mrs May triggers Article 50 whether it's going to be completely impossible, when we get responses from the EU. If that's the case then we'll be falling back on WTO rules. Otherwise there will be a deal similar to the white paper - even if the details take 18 months to sort out (which will be about the time of the earliest date suggested for Indyref2).
The UK government are showing no signs of the common sense to recognise that the majority of the UK electorate don't want the deal they're seeking. So, I'm not expecting a u-turn on this, no matter how quickly they u-turned on National Insurance.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
Right, because you know exactly how the EU and the UK negotiators are going to end up even before they've got there.
Funny that. You're showing exactly the same kind of arrogance you loudly protested during the EU referendum campaign.
Personally, I don't think it is a given that the EU will let the UK walk away with WTO rules, and there is a glimmer of hope that it will be something better - if only because there would be a massive UK sized hole in the EU budget if there was no agreement.
But hey, you are a mind-reader and know better.
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arse
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
If you read what I read, you'll see that isn't what I'm saying. At present we have an outline of a plan from the UK government, and that has been known long enough for the EU to have had time to consider their response, and a statement that if the UK doesn't get something like that then they'll fall back on WTO terms. You've right, the EU will prefer something other than WTO terms and so are likely to put in an offer that is also somewhere between Single Market and WTO. We will find out what that is once Article 50 is triggered. I'm not sure what is so odd about that.
Of course, we won't know that EU position for a few weeks. I've never claimed to know that. But, we will know that, and that will further constrain the final deal after 18 months negotiation. That does mean that when the Scottish Parliament debates the options to produce a White Paper the terms of Brexit will be imprecise, but with the starting positions of both sides already stated and an expectation that the final deal will be somewhere between them. By the time the people of Scotland vote the Brexit negotiations will have concluded, and the deal will be going through the processes of getting it ratified by all the sovereign nations of the EU, and the UK Parliament.
I don't know what that final deal will be. But, by the time we vote in Autumn 2018 we probably will, and if the referendum is delayed until the spring of 2019 then there would have been a month or two to take that into consideration - though we'd have had 18 months with the broad picture already known.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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PaulTH*
Shipmate
# 320
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
But, where is there evidence that there are "millions of English voters" who do not want the UK to remain in the Single Market? Remaining in the Single Market would be consistent with the June 2016 referendum result, which is as close as millions of English voters had had an opportunity to express their opinion on the subject.
I've never bought in to the argument that people didn't know what they were voting for last 23rd June. Andrew Marr has proved several times, by showing playbacks, that David Cameron and George Osborne both made it clear that a Leave vote would result in leaving the Single Market. One of the reasons why I have favoured an early General Election is that the question of whether or not the Prime Minister has a mandate for her style of Brexit would be answered. I believe she would receive an overwhelming endorsement of her position. Which is that Brexit inevitable removes us from the Single Market unless we make it something other than Brexit. The PM's understanding is that this is incompatible with granting Nicola Sturgeon's demands. But Nicola knows that and always has. Just as she knows that the PM won't agree to an early referendum. It's all manna from heaven for her agenda of driving as big a wedge as she can between Scotland and England to destroy the union. People should see her agenda for what it is.
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Yours in Christ
Paul
Posts: 6387 | From: White Cliffs Country | Registered: May 2001
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alienfromzog
Ship's Alien
# 5327
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Posted
I don't think Cameron's or Osborne's pre-referendum comments are remotely relevant. It's what the Leave campaigners said that matters.
How many times were we told to look at Norway as they were doing so well outside the EU? Apparently a Norway option is not compatible with the 'will of the people.' There is lots of polling data that shows a lot of people voted for less immigration but a big chunk of these voters only did so because they believed there would be no economic cost from doing so. This sector of the electorate would have voted the other way if they believed there would be a cost.
And don't tell me that the Ł350 million claim was irrelevant. That's the kind of nonsense you get from people who argue for unlimited spending on elections and at the same time tell you the spending is irrelevant as it's the people who decide. The following is anecdotal but I don't care. Last week in clinic when told how long our elective waiting list is, the father of our patient asked my boss (who happens to be German) if Brexit will improve things because we'll have more money... My boss was speechless. However as a huge amount of surgical equipment is German made no one should be surprised that the drop in the pound has just put a lot of prices up by 10%.
quote:
Originally posted by Dave W.:
quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
It's quite simple in economic terms really. An independent Scotland in the European single market with the rUK outside would be better off than Scotland remaining in Brexit Britain.
Why do you think so?
At the moment, while still in both the UK and the EU, Scotland does far more trade with the rest of the UK than with the rest of the EU, even though the latter is much larger. Scotland in the post-Brexit UK would encounter more friction in its EU trade; Scotland outside the UK (and in the EU, let's assume) would encounter more friction in its UK trade. Wouldn't adding friction to the larger share of trade (by leaving the UK) be worse economically than adding friction to the smaller share of trade (by staying in the UK)?
The competitive advantage combined with the ability to attract inward investment that would have otherwise gone to England would in the medium term make Scotland better off than if they stayed in the post Brexit UK. Obviously none of this is certain but it does change the equation.
here is someone who, unlike me, actually knows what he's talking about.
AFZ
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Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]
An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)
Posts: 2150 | From: Zog, obviously! Straight past Alpha Centauri, 2nd planet on the left... | Registered: Dec 2003
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by PaulTH*:
Andrew Marr has proved several times, by showing playbacks, that David Cameron and George Osborne both made it clear that a Leave vote would result in leaving the Single Market.
Ask yourself why Cameron and Osborne, leading Remain campaigners, were saying that. They were saying it because the Leave campaign (or, parts of it at least) were saying that the UK could leave the EU and stay in the Single Market, pointing to nations like Norway to show this is possible. Cameron etal were saying that this would not be possible, which was a campaign tactic consistent with the "project fear" approach rather than necessarily a statement of fact.
What those statements from Cameron etal do confirm is that what Mrs May is proposing is significantly different from what a large proportion of the Leave campaign were seeking. Which isn't that surprising since May etal were not in the Leave campaign (some of her cabinet were, of course). It's what happens when you go into a referendum without first defining what the options are and then leave it up to someone else to decide that for you after the event.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
If you read what I read, you'll see that isn't what I'm saying. At present we have an outline of a plan from the UK government, and that has been known long enough for the EU to have had time to consider their response, and a statement that if the UK doesn't get something like that then they'll fall back on WTO terms. You've right, the EU will prefer something other than WTO terms and so are likely to put in an offer that is also somewhere between Single Market and WTO. We will find out what that is once Article 50 is triggered. I'm not sure what is so odd about that.
I'm not sure what is hard to understand about this: the negotiations with the EU will not finish until 2019. If there is a Scottish referendum before then, voters will not know what the options are.
Before the point of Brexit, Scotland can't even begin to negotiate with the EU, the EEA or whatever it is that the Scottish government wants today.
You'd be voting blind and without the information. This is not a controversial point except to those who already think they know the answer.
quote:
Of course, we won't know that EU position for a few weeks. I've never claimed to know that. But, we will know that, and that will further constrain the final deal after 18 months negotiation. That does mean that when the Scottish Parliament debates the options to produce a White Paper the terms of Brexit will be imprecise, but with the starting positions of both sides already stated and an expectation that the final deal will be somewhere between them. By the time the people of Scotland vote the Brexit negotiations will have concluded, and the deal will be going through the processes of getting it ratified by all the sovereign nations of the EU, and the UK Parliament.
Cloud cuckoo land. An independent Scotland may indeed be a better deal than in the UK, if it was able to get access to the Single Market. But that's quite a big question given that nobody currently has any idea whether that's possible, whether the UK will have access to the Single Market, whether an Independent Scotland would have access to the Single Market or whether even most Scots want to have access to the Single Market.
quote:
I don't know what that final deal will be. But, by the time we vote in Autumn 2018 we probably will, and if the referendum is delayed until the spring of 2019 then there would have been a month or two to take that into consideration - though we'd have had 18 months with the broad picture already known.
Bullshit. You are utterly delusional.
[ 17. March 2017, 07:54: Message edited by: mr cheesy ]
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arse
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
Erm sorry, I thought I was in hell.
Alan, apologies for getting personal. You are still very, very wrong.
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arse
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
I'm not sure what is hard to understand about this: the negotiations with the EU will not finish until 2019.
Which is more or less what I've been saying, though it'll be late 2018 (there will need to be at least three months after the end of negotiations to get it agreed by all EU nations and UK Parliament) - assuming a triggering of Article 50 at the end of the month. But the main points of the negotiations will be known before then - we already know the opening negotiating position for the UK. Which is what the voters need to know in regard to the rUK relationship to the EU, the only relevant issues being what, if any, restrictions on trade will be in place between Scotland (in EU/EEA) and the UK. Many other aspects of those negotiations will be irrelevant to independent Scotland (eg: whether the UK will participate in EU research programmes, adhere to EU environmental policies etc).
quote:
If there is a Scottish referendum before then, voters will not know what the options are.
You're sounding like Mrs May, missing entirely the irony that Scottish voters in 18-24 months will have a lot more information on the options than the UK voters were permitted in June last year. There may be a few details still unclear, but broadly speaking the No to Independence option will be quite clear. Though I expect the Better Together will try and spin a series of fantasies about how the UK will be a great trading nation, an economic world power while not tied to the EU - the same nonsense that the Leave campaign were spouting last year. But, they'll still be saying that 10 years from now even as the evidence that it's not going to happen builds up. So, a referendum now or in 10 years won't be any different on that point.
quote:
Before the point of Brexit, Scotland can't even begin to negotiate with the EU, the EEA or whatever it is that the Scottish government wants today.
No, the Scottish government can't begin those negotiations before Independence. Once Scotland is free of English domination it can start negotiating our own relation to the EU independent of the rUK relation to the EU. If an independent Scotland can't negotiate with the EU until the rUK says we can, then we're not independent.
I don't see any reason why it makes any difference at all whether that point is before or after the rUK has left the EU - though, it will be afterwards just because the time between referendum and independence will exceed the time between referendum and Brexit. There's no way the negotiations and associated legislative paths through two Parliaments will be done within 6 months.
quote:
You'd be voting blind and without the information. This is not a controversial point except to those who already think they know the answer.
Again, apparently that was OK for the whole UK in relation to Leave or Remain in the EU. But, it's not OK for Scotland to vote for or against Independence?
quote:
An independent Scotland may indeed be a better deal than in the UK, if it was able to get access to the Single Market. But that's quite a big question given that nobody currently has any idea whether that's possible, whether the UK will have access to the Single Market, whether an Independent Scotland would have access to the Single Market or whether even most Scots want to have access to the Single Market.
Indeed, those are the questions that the people of Scotland will need to talk about over the next couple of years, and of course we have already discussed those 3 years ago. There's nothing in those questions which suggest we need an even longer conversation on these issues, such that we should delay the independence referendum beyond the Autumn 2018 - Spring 2019 proposed by the Scottish government. Much less that that delay should be at the insistence of the UK government rather than the wish of the Scottish Parliament.
Three years ago, the people of Scotland were largely (not universally, but what in politics is universally accepted) in favour of Scotland in the single market, and we had a whole load of "project fear" statements that this would not be possible. I'm not sure there's anything new there - the reasons why Scotland couldn't be in the EEA/EU are the same (whether the economy would qualify, whether Spain would veto it etc). There's a reversal of one argument - last time round there were questions about whether Scotland outside the Single Market would face trade barriers with the rUK inside, now it's whether Scotland inside would face trade barriers with rUK outside. The effects of that would be much the same.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Tubbs
Miss Congeniality
# 440
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Posted
I don’t blame Scotland for wanting to leave this shit show, but the fact that Scotland can’t currently negotiate in its own right is nothing to do with the English. Scotland can’t negotiate with the EU / EEFTA until they say it can. The EU said no to special status and refused to allow them to negotiate separately. One deal for all and everyone leaves together. EEFTA says that Scotland can’t apply now as it doesn’t meet their criteria.
If Scotland votes for independence, it’ll have to negotiate its exit from r-UK before talking to anyone else about membership. If unravelling 40 years is going to take decades according to some, I wonder how long it’ll take to unravel 300+. The Nat’s time-time of 18 months looks a bit optimistic. I don’t think Spain and the others will veto but I think they’ll insist that every i is dotted and each t is crossed before the application processes. The Nats will have to address the fiscal questions that they’ve been dodging.
If I was May, which I’m not, I’d kick the can until after the next election. And insist the Nats get an outright majority as one of the pre-conditions of getting a yes. This might happen. But if the Unionist parties run on a platform of “putting the same commitment and passion into actually governing and solving Scotland’s issues as others are putting into trying to get independence” they might pick up a few more seats.
quote:
Though I expect the Better Together will try and spin a series of fantasies about how the UK will be a great trading nation, an economic world power while not tied to the EU - the same nonsense that the Leave campaign were spouting last year. But, they'll still be saying that 10 years from now even as the evidence that it's not going to happen builds up. So, a referendum now or in 10 years won't be any different on that point.
Both sides are pedalling fantasies. The Nats’ picture of a Scotland free from the English yoke of oppression, able to take its rightful place at the centre of the international stage is just a big spin. And sounds remarkably familiar.. You just have to choose which unicorn you like and hope it doesn’t bite you on the arse.
Tubbs
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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am
Posts: 12701 | From: Someplace strange | Registered: Jun 2001
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Barnabas62
Host
# 9110
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Tubbs:
I don’t blame Scotland for wanting to leave this shit show, but the fact that Scotland can’t currently negotiate in its own right is nothing to do with the English. Scotland can’t negotiate with the EU / EEFTA until they say it can. The EU said no to special status and refused to allow them to negotiate separately. One deal for all and everyone leaves together. EEFTA says that Scotland can’t apply now as it doesn’t meet their criteria.
This. And for the time being the only organisation who has the authority to negotiate a change to this on behalf of the Scots is the UK government and its reps in the Brexit negotiations.
So this is a way of trying to make the UK Government look more unpopular in advance of a future referendum, simply for carrying out the role they are obliged to carry out. Another referendum after Brexit is entirely justified. But trying for one in the middle of the Brexit negotations just looks to me like playing politics.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
I don't know who is claiming that Scotland will be able to negotiate anything with the EU before Scotland gains independence. Sturgeon tried for a special deal for Scotland, and has been told quite plainly that the EU can only negotiate with an independent nation (the UK) and can't make separate arrangements with parts of nations (despite Greenland having a different arrangement with the EU from the rest of Denmark).
The whole discussion is, after IndyRef2 assuming a Yes vote, can an independent Scotland seek EU membership. The answer to that is clearly yes, there is nothing stopping an independent Scotland seeking EU membership. Whether that application is successful and how long it will take are different questions. That does not, in anyway, depend on whatever arrangement the rUK has with the EU - if Scotland is independent and the rUK outside the EU, the UK government has not basis to tell either Scotland or the EU what they should do.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Tubbs
Miss Congeniality
# 440
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
I don't know who is claiming that Scotland will be able to negotiate anything with the EU before Scotland gains independence. Sturgeon tried for a special deal for Scotland, and has been told quite plainly that the EU can only negotiate with an independent nation (the UK) and can't make separate arrangements with parts of nations (despite Greenland having a different arrangement with the EU from the rest of Denmark).
The whole discussion is, after IndyRef2 assuming a Yes vote, can an independent Scotland seek EU membership. The answer to that is clearly yes, there is nothing stopping an independent Scotland seeking EU membership. Whether that application is successful and how long it will take are different questions. That does not, in anyway, depend on whatever arrangement the rUK has with the EU - if Scotland is independent and the rUK outside the EU, the UK government has not basis to tell either Scotland or the EU what they should do.
It may be the way things were reported here, but the Nats did a really good impression of trying to negotiate with the EU in their own right in the aftermath of the Referendum. And got told no. Although parts of member nations could opt out, parts of non-member nations couldn't opt in. The Faroe Islands aren’t members of the EU either.
If Scotland becomes independent, it can do whatever it likes once exit terms are sorted. But at the moment they're not independent. So they can't. The current situation isn’t entirely the fault of the UK. The Nats have always wanted IndyRef2. If it wasn’t Brexit, it would be something else.
If I was one of the 45% of Scottish people who voted Leave, I’d be well pissed. Sturgeon is treating them with the same contempt as May is treating the Remain voters in the rest of the UK.
[ 17. March 2017, 11:42: Message edited by: Tubbs ]
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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am
Posts: 12701 | From: Someplace strange | Registered: Jun 2001
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Tubbs:
It may be the way things were reported here, but the Nats did a really good impression of trying to negotiate with the EU in their own right in the aftermath of the Referendum. And got told no.
Which I thought I just said. The Scottish Government seeking to do what it's supposed to do, get the best for the people of Scotland and represent them, sought to keep Scotland within the Single Market. They followed two options, and found neither could be made to work. The long shot was a special deal for Scotland different from the rest of the UK, and they were told quite clearly the only way for Scotland to have a different deal from the rest of the UK was for Scotland to be independent from the rest of the UK - and for that to be an established fact rather than an aspiration.
The more reasonable option was for the whole of the UK to remain within the Single Market in some Norway-like arrangement. Which should have been achievable given that that was what a proportion of Leave voters wanted anyway, so it's a reasonable compromise between the 48% who voted to Remain and the x% who voted for a hard Brexit, even though it would only be the preference of the (52-x)%. But, Mrs May seems incapable of simple arithmatic and seems convinced she has a mandate for a hard Brexit. With the inevitable Indyref2 as a result.
quote:
If I was one of the 45% of Scottish people who voted Leave, I’d be well pissed. Sturgeon is treating them with the same contempt as May is treating the Remain voters in the rest of the UK.
The 45% are those who voted for Independence in 2014. The Leave vote in June was 38% in Scotland.
Presumably of that 38% some would still support Scottish independence (just outwith the EU), just as some who voted Remain would oppose Scottish independence. It's not treating them with contempt if they're asked to vote on Scottish independence with it either defined in advance that the Scottish government would seek EU membership (or, that the government wouldn't), or that an Independent Scotland would hold a referendum to determine whether the people of Scotland want the Scottish government to seek EU membership. Whatever way, that 38% get another chance to have their views heard and discussed.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Leorning Cniht
Shipmate
# 17564
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
That does not, in anyway, depend on whatever arrangement the rUK has with the EU - if Scotland is independent and the rUK outside the EU, the UK government has not basis to tell either Scotland or the EU what they should do.
OF course - but the relationship between the UK and the EU might be relevant for Scotland's decision. If Scotland joined the EU, then it must trade with the UK on the same terms as the other EU members. If Scotland is outside the EU, it can negotiate different terms.
So it might become a question of whether getting better terms for trade with the EU is worth getting worse terms for trade with the UK.
Posts: 5026 | From: USA | Registered: Feb 2013
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
That does not, in anyway, depend on whatever arrangement the rUK has with the EU - if Scotland is independent and the rUK outside the EU, the UK government has not basis to tell either Scotland or the EU what they should do.
OF course - but the relationship between the UK and the EU might be relevant for Scotland's decision. If Scotland joined the EU, then it must trade with the UK on the same terms as the other EU members. If Scotland is outside the EU, it can negotiate different terms.
So it might become a question of whether getting better terms for trade with the EU is worth getting worse terms for trade with the UK.
Which are questions that will be debated endlessly as the referendum campaign progresses. But, it is clear that the deal Mrs May is currently working for is not a deal that will work for Scotland - the question is whether Scotland can work up a deal that's better for Scotland if given the opportunity. If Mrs May opts for the relatively sane option of seeking EEA membership then if Scotland can obtain EEA or EU membership the trade issue is effectively eliminated. But, her published plan is much less sane than that.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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PaulTH*
Shipmate
# 320
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Posted
Perhaps we're wrong to trust opinion polls and wrong again to trust a poll commissioned by the Daily Telegraph, but this suggests that getting on with Brexit is more important to a majority of voters than the possible break up of the UK. So it would endorse the PM's decision not to permit another Indyref just to suit the SNP's timetable. But the First Minister said today at her springtime bash in Aberdeen that she may be willing to discuss a time frame with the PM.
Nicola Sturgeon, as wily a politician as ever, has now made it inevitable that the British government must concede the point eventually, even though there's no evidence that the Scots even want it. Meanwhile Gordon Brown has re-entered the fray with a rehash of his devo max or federal UK idea he first posited in 2014, which even Alex Salmond considered at one time. So it's pretty certain Scotland will get its referendum. It's less certain when, or even what the question will be. It's also uncertain what will be the UK's relationship with the EU by then or even what the EU itself will look like then. This is why I totally agree that this shouldn't happen before 2020 and that Scotland should get the extra option of devo max. Only then, in the knowledge of the changed circumstances, can it make a properly informed decision.
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Yours in Christ
Paul
Posts: 6387 | From: White Cliffs Country | Registered: May 2001
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
The biggest problem with devo-max federalism at this time is that it still denies the wishes of 62% of the Scottish electorate who voted to stay in the EU back in June. Because the messages from the discussions last year seemed clear that no amount of additional devolved powers or federal division of the UK will allow a special deal for Scotland. The "solution" offered by Brown doesn't address the change of circumstances that make the current constitutional arrangement unsatisfactory.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
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PaulTH*
Shipmate
# 320
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
The biggest problem with devo-max federalism at this time is that it still denies the wishes of 62% of the Scottish electorate who voted to stay in the EU back in June
So does the SNP's latest position. The FM wants to call an independence referendum because Scotland risks being taken out of the EU against its will. Nothing in what she says explains how holding this vote will achieve the aim of keeping Scotland in. In fact she's now conceding that she may have to apply to EFTA. That's something which requires the agreement of all EFTA countries as well as the EU 27. It would at least allow control over agriculture and fisheries, but there's no indication that it's achievable. The only transparently obvious reason for this vote is to get rid of the English, because it's a stab in the dark whether or not independence will achieve what she says is her motive for seeking it.
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Yours in Christ
Paul
Posts: 6387 | From: White Cliffs Country | Registered: May 2001
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
Independence won't keep Scotland in the EU, there won't be enough time between and referendum and Brexit to prevent Scotland being pulled out of the EU. But, once independent then Scotland can start the process of regaining EU membership asap.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
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PaulTH*
Shipmate
# 320
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Posted
I repeat my assertion that this proposed referendum has nothing to do with Brexit, the EU or the Single Market. Gordon Brown knows this only too well. So he's cutting to the chase and suggesting another way in which Scotland could satisfy its nationalist aspirations. With Labour far removed from power I only hope the British Government has the sense to listen to what Gordon and Kezia Dugdale are proposing.
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Yours in Christ
Paul
Posts: 6387 | From: White Cliffs Country | Registered: May 2001
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PaulTH*
Shipmate
# 320
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Posted
I repeat my assertion that this proposed referendum has nothing to do with Brexit, the EU or the Single Market. Gordon Brown knows this only too well. So he's cutting to the chase and suggesting another way in which Scotland could satisfy its nationalist aspirations. With Labour far removed from power I only hope the British Government has the sense to listen to what Gordon and Kezia Dugdale are proposing.
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Yours in Christ
Paul
Posts: 6387 | From: White Cliffs Country | Registered: May 2001
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
I don't think the British government has any sense at all. If it did, and was serious about wanting to maintain the Union between Scotland and the rest of the UK, they wouldn't be needlessly heading down a road almost purposefully designed to push Scotland to Indyref2, with an almost certainly larger vote in favour in independence than in 2014.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
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Baptist Trainfan
Shipmate
# 15128
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Posted
I agree with Alan (as on many things!)
ITSM that The Most Dangerous Woman In Britain has got The Most Powerful Woman In Britain in a headlock which she will not release lightly. Sturgeon is nothing if not canny.
Quite apart from the EU question, all this would have been avoided if Cameron had listened to those who said that Devo-max should have been an option last time round - it would have swept the board and drawn the SNP's teeth.
Since then opinion has surely hardened, not just over the EU but over "Westminster not taking Scotland into account". Despite Gordon Brown's best efforts, that possibility has had its day.
[ 19. March 2017, 05:52: Message edited by: Baptist Trainfan ]
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Baptist Trainfan
Shipmate
# 15128
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Posted
PS Probably the SNP's task is among the burghers of Corstorphine and Morningside, who need to be convinced that they can vote "yes" to independence without necessarily endorsing the party's centre-left political position.
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TurquoiseTastic
Fish of a different color
# 8978
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Posted
Well, I'm not sure about the British Government, but I think one of the problems is that the population of England is not really serious about keeping Scotland in the Union. The two opinions that seem to be aired most are "they've no right to leave, the traitors, how dare they" and "good riddance, I'd be glad to see the back of them". Neither of these builds up the Union much.
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Baptist Trainfan:
PS Probably the SNP's task is among the burghers of Corstorphine and Morningside, who need to be convinced that they can vote "yes" to independence without necessarily endorsing the party's centre-left political position.
I expect they will resort to the ABE position (Anyone But (the) English) which works in most circumstances, especially after so many Scots felt that the "better together" campaign ratted on the promise to give Holyrood more powers.
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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Leorning Cniht
Shipmate
# 17564
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
The two opinions that seem to be aired most are "they've no right to leave, the traitors, how dare they" and "good riddance, I'd be glad to see the back of them". Neither of these builds up the Union much.
The one I hear more often than those is a shrug and "I think they'd be making a mistake." I don't claim my friends and family are typical, though. They are mostly of the opinion that, even with Brexit, it would be a bad idea for the Scots to leave the UK, but they recognize the right of the Scots to have a different opinion.
They'll be sad if the UK breaks up, but tend to feel that the Scots have a generous deal from the UK at the moment (subsidy by English taxpayers, extra MPs in Westminster) and aren't interested in offering them any more goodies to stay. They tend to oppose further devolution without a removal of the northward-flowing tax subsidy.
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
I also hear a note of envy - lucky sods, getting away from Tory governments.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
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Tubbs
Miss Congeniality
# 440
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
quote:
Originally posted by TurquoiseTastic:
The two opinions that seem to be aired most are "they've no right to leave, the traitors, how dare they" and "good riddance, I'd be glad to see the back of them". Neither of these builds up the Union much.
The one I hear more often than those is a shrug and "I think they'd be making a mistake." I don't claim my friends and family are typical, though. They are mostly of the opinion that, even with Brexit, it would be a bad idea for the Scots to leave the UK, but they recognize the right of the Scots to have a different opinion.
They'll be sad if the UK breaks up, but tend to feel that the Scots have a generous deal from the UK at the moment (subsidy by English taxpayers, extra MPs in Westminster) and aren't interested in offering them any more goodies to stay. They tend to oppose further devolution without a removal of the northward-flowing tax subsidy.
That’s pretty much what I’ve heard as well. And as some sections of Scotland don’t seem to value the Union much either as they’re always wanting to leave, why bother getting in their way. They’re getting a good deal, much better than the rest of the UK, and they’re still not happy.
That said, a number of polls this weekend said that the majority of Scotland don’t want another vote and may still vote to stay in the UK – even with Brexit – so who knows.
Tubbs
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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am
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North East Quine
Curious beastie
# 13049
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Posted
I'm sure that the majority of Scots don't want another vote so soon after the last, but many (most?) feel this is a situation foisted on us by the Brexit vote.
Posts: 6414 | From: North East Scotland | Registered: Oct 2007
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Cathscats
Shipmate
# 17827
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Posted
I agree with NEQ. Last time there was an effervescence and excitement about things, but this time there is more a sense of business-like necessity,
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"...damp hands and theological doubts - the two always seem to go together..." (O. Douglas, "The Setons")
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PaulTH*
Shipmate
# 320
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by North East Quine:
I'm sure that the majority of Scots don't want another vote so soon after the last, but many (most?) feel this is a situation foisted on us by the Brexit vote.
I disagree. I think a vote is being forced on them by the SNP. They originally claimed to be calling a referendum because of Scotland being taken out of the EU against its will. Now they acknowledge that independent or not, Scotland will be leaving the EU anyway. They haven't even promised that Scotland will apply for EU membership. This is because they know that some 400,000 SNP voters voted for Brexit. So the whole basis for calling the vote is spurious. Although the SNP put it in their manifesto last year, they are a minority government. The Greens, who will support the SNP in tomorrow's vote in the Scottish Parliament, only said that they'd support if they believed that it's what the Scottish people want. The polls indicate that it isn't the case. So there is no clear mandate to call another referendum and the basis on which the SNP want to call it is complete fiction. It's just another bite at the independence cherry and nothing to do with the EU. I hope Nicola gets the same dollop of egg on her face as Alex Salmond did in 2014. Though I suspect she'll win.
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Yours in Christ
Paul
Posts: 6387 | From: White Cliffs Country | Registered: May 2001
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Jolly Jape
Shipmate
# 3296
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Posted
quote:
This is because they know that some 400,000 SNP voters voted for Brexit. So the whole basis for calling the vote is spurious.
So because 40% of SNP voters voted for Brexit, the 60% who did not should be denied their aspirations, yet when 48% of voters in the whole UK voted to remain in the EU, there was a clear and unequivocal majority to leave? Dual standards, much?
I'm, I suppose, English, what with being born and bred in Manchester, though I prefer to think of myself as British. But there is no way, were I Scottish, that I would want to be dragged out of Europe by English votes, especially Tory English votes. There is history here, and I think that the overwhelming evidence is that the Scots will be shafted by the Tories now, as they always have been in the past. There are reasons for ABE.
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To those who have never seen the flow and ebb of God's grace in their lives, it means nothing. To those who have seen it, even fleetingly, even only once - it is life itself. (Adeodatus)
Posts: 3011 | From: A village of gardens | Registered: Sep 2002
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
Added to which, the reasons why people in Scotland voted Leave (according to the polls) are subtly different from England. Leave votes in Scotland were strongest in coastal communities, reflecting concerns over fishing. Concerns over immigration are much smaller. To a large extent, Leave in Scotland was to leave the EU (and the fisheries policies) but remain in the Single Market. Though, since the question didn't allow voters to differentiate between the two main options for leaving the EU it's impossible to say just how strong that camp is - in England as much as in Scotland. As I've repeatedly said, if Mrs May opted for a Brexit that leaves the UK within the Single Market (in some Norway-like status) then there would be no support for Indyref2 because that would be close enough to the desires of the people of Scotland (and, indeed, the majority in the UK as a whole).
If an independent Scotland decides not to rejoin the EU, or to only go as far as joining Norway etal within the Single Market but outwith the EU, then that will be the decision of the people of Scotland. Rather than having a referendum we didn't want foisted on us, for that referendum to be so mis-managed that the result is effectively meaningless, and then for an English government to inflict a Brexit that has only minority support in the UK upon Scotland. At least Scotland has a chance to be rid of a government that had no regard for democracy. The people of England, Wales and NI are rather stuck with it.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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PaulTH*
Shipmate
# 320
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
and then for an English government to inflict a Brexit that has only minority support in the UK upon Scotland.
It is simply untrue that a the PM's Brexit has minority support. A poll shows that although 90% want to retain free trade with the EU after Brexit, 82% of Leave voters and 58% of Remain voters think EU migrants should be treated the same as non-EU. This is the problem which faces the UK negotiating team. These requirements are conflicting, given that the EU insists on the four freedoms as the basis of a trade deal. This is why hard Brexit will come from the EU, not from the UK.
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Yours in Christ
Paul
Posts: 6387 | From: White Cliffs Country | Registered: May 2001
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by PaulTH*:
A poll shows that ...
... a lot of people are misinformed.
For example "A total of 77 per cent of Leave voters do not want EU migrants to be able to claim welfare benefits in Britain", which is great. Because, EU migrants are already unable to claim welfare benefits in the UK unless they have worked here for sufficient time to earn the right to those benefits.
And, "82 per cent of Leave voters and 58 per cent of Remain voters wanted EU migrants to be treated in the same way as non-EU migrants." Which isn't that different to current situation. Non-EU migrants need a visa, which EU migrants don't. But, once here both EU and non-EU migrants cannot access welfare payments, require insurance (or payment arrangements from their own country) for treatment on the NHS, can only live here without employment if they have the resources to do so without recourse to UK public funds.
If those are what people wanting to control immigration want, then they have them - without leaving the EU, let alone the single market.
quote:
This is why hard Brexit will come from the EU, not from the UK.
No, it will come because the UK government wants to make a symbolic break with freedom of movement, which will have no significant "benefit" (even to those who have objections to immigration beyond pure racism). Hard Brexit, a break-up of the UK, and all the economic damage of WTO trade with the EU ... it's a big price to pay for a mere symbolic statement that only really benefits those who don't want to see dark skins and hear Polish voices in Britain.
[ 22. March 2017, 20:25: Message edited by: Alan Cresswell ]
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
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