Thread: Accroc de la politique (hooked on French politics): the second round Board: Oblivion / Ship of Fools.


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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
Some while back there was a thread called "Accroc de la politique" to discuss the 2012 French presidential election. It seems to have been summarily deleted (not even in Oblivion ) so I thought I'd start its successor amid the news that François Hollande has emerged as the Socialist party candidate for the job.

Faithful to the French tradition of "alternance", I would like to vote Socialist just to give the other lot a turn, but when I see electoral pledges including lowering the retirement age to 60 and getting out of nuclear power I can't help wondering whether I haven't just landed at Woodstock.

What say ye, Ship Francophiles and pundits?
 

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Posted by Sober Preacher's Kid (# 12699) on :
 
Lowering the Retirement age to 60? Good luck paying for that.

Getting out of nuclear power? Well, that's going to be inconvenient what with all those reactors and such. Plus there are the missiles, the subs and the aircraft carrier. I'm sure the Generals and Admirals would throw a right tantrum if you took away their toys.
 

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Posted by Barnabas62 (# 9110) on :
 
I should think Sarkozy cannot believe his luck. Something like three quarters of France's electrical energy comes from nuclear power. No country in the world can afford to lower the age of retirement.

Remember Sir Humphrey. Courageous and far-sighted policies will not only lose you the next election, but the one after that.

Reminds me of the UK Labour Party in the 1980s.
 

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Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
Bof.* On reflection, I think Martine Aubry was a better candidate. I'm not excited about Hollande's lack of political experience.

I'm not a Sarko fan, but to my mind he's looking far more capable of actually running the country at the mo. Assuming for the sake of argument that Hollande actually can get elected, I'm not sure how many of the more optimistic policies he actually could put into practice.

*French for "meh"
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
I wonder what Marine Le Pen makes of the outcome?
 

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Posted by Desert Daughter (# 13635) on :
 
With Hollande as opponent Number One, Sarkozy is finding his 'traditional' electorate being nibbled away on two fronts: To the right, Madame Le Pen will undoubtedly do what she can. Many people who used to vote Sarkozy because of his posturing as a strongman who 'cleans up' the country (remember the "Kärcher" quip?) will now flirt with the Front National.

On the other hand, Hollande (in contrast to Madame Aubry, who is much more of a left-winger) is a feasible vote for people who are not typical socialist voters, but who are more convinced by Hollande's down-to-earth, realistic aproach than by Sarkozy. So I expect a number of moderate conservatives to vote for Hollande.
 

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Posted by Phos Hilaron (# 6914) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by Barnabas62:
I should think Sarkozy cannot believe his luck. Something like three quarters of France's electrical energy comes from nuclear power. No country in the world can afford to lower the age of retirement.

Remember Sir Humphrey. Courageous and far-sighted policies will not only lose you the next election, but the one after that.

Reminds me of the UK Labour Party in the 1980s.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Phos Hilaron:

quote:

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Originally posted by Barnabas62:
I should think Sarkozy cannot believe his luck. Something like three quarters of France's electrical energy comes from nuclear power. No country in the world can afford to lower the age of retirement.

Remember Sir Humphrey. Courageous and far-sighted policies will not only lose you the next election, but the one after that.

Reminds me of the UK Labour Party in the 1980s.

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Mr. Hollande has a secret plan to replace the nuclear power stations with giant hamster wheels hooked up to generators. Even now, at the Ecole Nationale Superieure de Techniques Avancees, there's a black project breeding hamsters the size of pit ponies.

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And I thought that Socialists generally opposed genetic modification?
 

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Posted by Phos Hilaron (# 6914) on :
 
Hence the need for secrecy.
 

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Posted by ken (# 2460) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by the giant cheeseburger:
And I thought that Socialists generally opposed genetic modification?

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Nah, that's Greens. Socialists only oppose genetic modification when it is done in the interests of the ruling class, as is inevitable under capitalism.
 

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Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
ENSTA is a couple of hundred yards round the corner from my house. I'll sneak round there with a pair of binoculars.

Back on topic, Marine le Pen seems to have gone quiet. Maybe she's regrouping . I don't think she's been able to capitalise on the DSK saga as much as she hoped.

The opinion polls are currently showing François Hollande winning the first round ahead of Sarko, followed by a comfortable victory for Hollande in the second round. Le Pen gets about 20% which is frankly alarmingly high, but not enough to get her into the second round. This might be a honeymoon period, I suppose.

[Edited for shonky grammar]

[ 19. October 2011, 12:41: Message edited by: la vie en rouge ]
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
This might be a honeymoon period, I suppose.

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quote:

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Can you take your binoculars round to the clinique? [/QB]

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No. Yet another juniorsarkozy (there are already so many...albeit from different Mamans ) is not half as interesting as pit-pony sized hamsters.

But don't you worry.
Never, ever will the French bid au revoir to their beloved nuclear technology and their unlimited faith in it. Technocrats 'R Us.
Remember, this is la patrie of positivism. Neither hamsters nor presidential babies will be able to sway this deep-seated faith the French have in their technology.
 

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Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
I don't think Sarko is going to make all that much kilometreage out of the baby - after all, what ticked off a lot of French people was that he seemed to make his private life too public.

OTOH, I think the Sarko camp does want to try to profit from the death of Gaddafi. I expect to see him charging about saying (in not so many words) "that was my idea! Mine! It was MOI!" Brice Hortefeux has already come out with words to this effect.
 

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Posted by Desert Daughter (# 13635) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
I don't think Sarko is going to make all that much kilometreage out of the baby - after all, what ticked off a lot of French people was that he seemed to make his private life too public.

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...indeed. And his first statement after juniora's birth is that his joy is "mostly private". He's learned the lines his spindoctors probably gave him, hasn't he? I would not be too surprised if les Sarkozy present themselves during the coming months as a thoroughly discrète bourgeoise family; the withholding of juniora's first name is an early indication of this.

Make no mistake, Carla & Nicolas are a great show act.If Hollande plays the "Monsieur Normal" part, Sarko will join him. Aven after all those years on
"bling bling" . Fortunately, Voters' memories are very short term.

And BTW, let's hope the child takes after the mother...

[ 20. October 2011, 18:58: Message edited by: Desert Daughter ]
 

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Posted by moonlitdoor (# 11707) on :
 
I wanted to ask about Desert Daughter saying that Hollande is the more realistic compared with Martine Aubry.

I had thought that they had gone from DSK who must from the IMF have known the harsh economic realities all too well, to someone whose promises on pension age and nuclear power suggested he needs descendre de son nuage. ( to leave cloud cuckoo land )

So is there a big gap politically between DSK and the other Socialists or is it just standard practice to make grand and unlikely promises ?
 

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Posted by Desert Daughter (# 13635) on :
 
@moonlitdoor: I was saying that Hollande's approach is more realistic & down to earth than Sarkozy's. And that he's less staunchly left-wing than Mme Aubry. In other words, Hollande is much less of a controversial candidate, more likely to appeal to a wide range of vioters, from traditional PS voters to the more centrist ones, and those who would have voted Bayrou (if he ran).

And yes there is quite a tendency to make grand promises. DSK, had he been a candidate, would have done the same, experience from the IMF or not.
I don't think Hollande is completely wrapped up in a 'nuage' (he is less so than his ex Ségolène Royal when she ran for president)
 

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Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
Interesting discussion over lunch yesterday (one of my favourite things about French people - sitting round with big plates of food discussing politics for hours)... if the Socialists get in, how much are they going to spend and how long will it be before they bankrupt the country?
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
The Economist recently quoted a PS insider as saying it would be a question of months or even weeks before an elected socialist government would renege on the wilder of its election promises. If I could be sure of that, they would get my vote.
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
Ooh! Now Dominique de Villepin has thrown his hat in the ring. That's sure to annoy the Sarkozystes.
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
And now so has Sarkozy. The worst the opposition seem to be able to say against him is that the sea in the background in his campaign poster is the Aegean.
 

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Posted by Sober Preacher's Kid (# 12699) on :
 
If it was taken from the deck of the aircraft carrier, surely it was example la gloire de la patrie instead of a faux-pas?

Er, how many French cliches can I put into this post?
 

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Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
Meanwhile Jean-Marie Lepen's three year suspended jail sentence (for comments about the occupation) has been upheld.

Do you think this will make any difference to the FN/Marine Lepen's campaign (pleease)?
 

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Posted by Drewthealexander (# 16660) on :
 
With respect to retirement age (or more specifically the age at which the state pension can be drawn), I am reminded of a song.

The only way is up.
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
Do you think this will make any difference to the FN/Marine Lepen's campaign (pleease)?

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I expect her to do a lot better than her dad did last time round, but not to make it into the second round.

I also expect Sarko to do a lot better than one might think from reading the BBC.

I certainly don't think Hollande is a shoo-in.
 

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Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
*why isn't there a proper French word for 'bump'?*

If it carries on like this Marine LePen won't be able to get on the ballot

Meanwhile, there was a general consensus over lunch on Sunday that François Hollande is talking nonsense. He says he would create a 75% top tax band, which as far as we can tell would just result in a mass exodus of rich French people to Switzerland.
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
If it carries on like this Marine LePen won't be able to get on the ballot

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quote:

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Meanwhile, there was a general consensus over lunch on Sunday that François Hollande is talking nonsense. He says he would create a 75% top tax band, which as far as we can tell would just result in a mass exodus of rich French people to Switzerland.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Eutychus:

quote:

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Meanwhile, there was a general consensus over lunch on Sunday that François Hollande is talking nonsense. He says he would create a 75% top tax band, which as far as we can tell would just result in a mass exodus of rich French people to Switzerland.

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I agree, but I submit that says as much about the people you have lunch with as anything else. I haven't found anybody working in business that wants to vote Socialist, but get out into la France d'en bas [untranslatable phrase roughly meaning 'anywhere outside the Paris ring road'] and it's a different story.

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Yes and no, I think some of my friends may still vote Socialist, precisely because they don't think Hollande will actually do it. Doesn't mean he's not talking nonsense, tho.
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
If it carries on like this Marine LePen won't be able to get on the ballot

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quote:

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Originally posted by me:
Dream on. She's using the same tactic her dad pulled in 2002 and 2007. I'll bet you anything she gets the signatures, or more likely already has them tucked in a drawer somewhere. She's just playing the victim.

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As predicted
 

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Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
Oh well. It was nice while it lasted.

Not incidentally, I note Sarko has being moving to the right in recent days...
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
Yes, but when the Socialist spokesperson was asked about Sarko's threatened changes to the Schengen agreement on France Info a few days ago, the spokesperson clearly had no idea what the Schengen agreement was, since their reply was all about austerity measures... (but then again current transport minister NKM has no idea how much a Paris metro ticket costs)

<throws up hands in gallic gesture of despair>
 

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Posted by Sioni Sais (# 5713) on :
 
Of all the gloomy faces at the Stade de France on Sunday afternoon, Sarkozy's must have won all the prizes. He looks like a man who knows what happened to Harold Wilson in 1970.
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
I don't think he's into rugby...
 

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Posted by malik3000 (# 11437) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by Eutychus:
I can't help wondering whether we might end up with a cohabitation with a president of one stripe and a government of the other (a general election is due not long after the presidential one). That would be a very French thing to happen.

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quote:

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Our laws have been strengthened against this threat, and it can be said that this arsenal is flawed

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quote:

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We do not have the right in this country to permanently monitor someone when they have committed no crime, without the decision of a judge. We live in a state of law (...) Belonging to a Salafist organisation is not an offence in and of itself (...) We cannot mix up religious fundamentalism with terrorism, even if we know there are elements that unite them

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It's ironic that the socialists are calling for even more repressive laws than those on the right. Stalinism rears its head? They'll be recommending the use of pre-cogs next...

Coupled with the rise of Melenchon, I think the events have to be good news for Sarko, at least in the first round.
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
Well, a few days to go to the first round of the elections and the candidates' manifestos have finally arrived in the post - all ten of them.

François Hollande's just seems waffly. Well, he is committed to keeping petrol prices stable for three months, so that's a point in his favour...

Sarko's is littered with the word "protect" and a commitment for all prison sentences handed down to be served, no parole eligibility before half the sentence is served in any event and systematic application of tariff sentencing for repeat offenders. Oh dear, he just lost my first-round vote, at least.

Eva Joly (Greens) has apparently balanced her books, but what's this? an end to nuclear power within 20 years, oh dear...

There's always Jacques Cheminade's proposals to refill lake Chad and develop space exploration

I think François Bayrou will get my first-round vote after all. The only candidate that seems to have an agenda concentrating on reforming the executive, which seems more presidential than throwing out petty gifts to the voters. Arrogant yes, but looks positively humble next to Sarko. Not anti-nuclear power. And if by some miracle he could get a decent first-round score, either Hollande or Sarko might be persuaded to make him prime minister, usefully tempering the loony left rise of Melanchon for the socialists and the nastier bits of the UMP's agenda on the right.

And yet... will not voting for one of the top two candidates create the risk of Marine Le Pen making it through to the second round à la 2002

Decisions, decisions...

[ 18. April 2012, 21:19: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
 

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Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
I think it's all about the second round. Marine LePen may make it to third depending on Mélenchon but I'm not seriously expecting any result but Sarko and Hollande in the two top spots.
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
Are you trying to influence my voting choices?

Oh and when I said half the prison term I meant two-thirds
 

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Posted by Tom Paine's Bones (# 17027) on :
 
Mélenchon looks interesting. I'm not sure I'd agree with him on everything (to be honest, I don't know very much about him, just what I've seen on a few youtube videos of his speeches), but it seems that he is at least raising important issues and getting closer to the root of the economic crisis.

1990s modernising social democrats (the Blairs and Schröders of the world) have completely sold out any principle they once had to neo-liberalism, globalisation and financial corporate capitalism. I'd like someone with a bit more principle and backbone on the left to rebalance things.

Not necessarily saying that Mélenchon is the one to do that, or even that, if I were French, I'd vote for him in the first round (I'd also want to look closely at the credentials of the Greens and the other leftish parties), but he does seem to be the only one with enough traction to be a serious contender and make it into third place ahead of FN.

Maybe he will be able to put on a bit of pressure from the left. The good old tradition of sinistrisme!
 

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Posted by New Yorker (# 9898) on :
 
Do I understand the election process correctly? There are two rounds of voting. The two candidates with the highest number of votes in the first round then proceed to the second round?

How soon after a president is chosen in the second round is he installed?
 

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Posted by Wesley J (# 6075) on :
 
I'm afraid to chip in as cheese-eating surrender monkey grammar Vichy person: it's 'accro', without the final 'c' in the thread title, not 'accroc'.

Just sayin'.

Mais continuez seulement. / Please continue.
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by New Yorker:
Do I understand the election process correctly? There are two rounds of voting. The two candidates with the highest number of votes in the first round then proceed to the second round?

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quote:

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How soon after a president is chosen in the second round is he installed?

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Not long, but I don't know offhand. The more fun aspect is that general elections are due just afterwards, so in a true spirit of French perversity and further innuendo, we could end up with a cohabitation with a president of one stripe and a government of another. Which we had briefly at the end of the Mittérand era.

The latest excitement here is the Attorney General threatening to prosecute anyone on the planet who gives exit poll numbers before all the polling stations are closed, which a number of foreign agencies and French paper Libération are claming they will do.
 

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Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
Latest Opinion poll. François Hollande is out ahead, by the looks of things - and Sarko would have a *lot* of catching up to do in the second round. His problem is that Mélenchon's supporters are mostly going to vote for Hollande in the second round, but he can't rely on e.g. Marine Lepen's supporters coming round to him (Sarko).

I think the poll underneath is interesting too - for the French challenged, the second question is "is this your firm decision or might you still change your mind?"

And because moi aussi je suis pédantique (I too am a pedant), the Larousse dictionary has accroc
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
I think opinion pollsters should be locked away somewhere. They really are the delphic priests of the modern age. We might as well look at goat entrails. Which of them predicted Jospin losing out to Le Pen in 2002?

France Info this morning was screaming about a 3% shift away from Sarko. If my calculations are right, that means about 30 fewer people in their survey said they would vote for him than the previous time. And of course each survey uses a different sample, so talking in terms of shifts in opinion from one to the next is nonsensical.

<sigh>
 

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Posted by Gracie (# 3870) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by la vie en rouge:

And because moi aussi je suis pédantique (I too am a pedant), the Larousse dictionary has accroc

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quote:

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Originally posted by Eutychus:
I don't think he's into rugby...

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He feigned interest in it because the French team played so superbly at the last World Cup. They came pretty damn close to winning. Their official reception in Paris was staged like a national triumph.

He's not the Rugby type. He wouldn't be able to look immaculate and is far too small, even as a back, for the modern game.

Allez Les Bleus sans Sarko! Vive la France!
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
Hollande: 28.4%
Sarkozy: 25.5%

(8pm estimates)

Other parties suggest more votes on the right among runner-up candidates. Marine Le Pen in third place with a better score than her dad in 2002

[ 22. April 2012, 18:02: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
 

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Posted by Tukai (# 12960) on :
 
So the big question would seem to be:

will those who voted for Le Pen in the first round vote for Sarko in the second round, on the grounds that he is more right-wing than Hollande?

If so, Sarko could yet win.

[ 23. April 2012, 09:25: Message edited by: Tukai ]
 

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Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
Not necessarily. All the various lefties (Front de Gauche etc.) have already given their support to Hollande. Marine Lepen won't be giving her support to Sarko AFAIK.

My feeling is that Sarko is on the way out. And I'm surprised by my own feelings about that. I think I might prefer to keep the dude I don't like but consider to be basically competent to the dude I quite like but whose competence I don't trust...
 

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Posted by blackbeard (# 10848) on :
 
I'm just a little jealous of French politics; so much more, well, interesting than UK equivalent!
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
At least some of the National Front vote is quite likely to go to Hollande, since it reflects grassroots dissatisfaction with the status quo rather than adoption of far-right politics.

If Marine Le Pen does give an actual guideline, I wouldn't be surprised if it's to vote Hollande as a protest vote to throw out Sarkozy. She is trying to redefine the party as a "third way" differing from the whole political class, rather than far right, and mentioned renaming the party last night.

She is a terrifyingly good speaker. Expect the FN to do well in the forthcoming general elections.

(As an aside, if this were a US election, she is the only candidate con-evos could vote for in terms of her position on ethical issues such as abortion, same-sex marriage, and so on).

The status quo don't do themselves any favours either. The post-election debate featuring party heavyweights on TV last night quickly degenerated into a shouting match between all-comers. This is the kind of thing the extremist parties make capital out of.

As to my broader feelings, I agree with la vie en rouge. Sarko has not endeared himself to me in recent developments, but you get the feeling he is in a better position to deal with a crisis, and the socialists' counter-arguments are less than convincing. Sarko may get criticised for his dirigisme and bling-bling antics, but at least one can see him doing them. The socialists claim the moral high ground but I fear they are up to all the same things, only in secret.

I think I'll make my decision for round two after watching the televised debate between the two candidates, but the choice is not inspiring.
 

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Posted by ken (# 2460) on :
 
If I was living in France I would certainly be voting Socialist. As I'm living in England I can't help feeling that our lives might be a little easier with Sarko in power, if only economically, as he's shown himself more willing to co-operate with the British than just about any other recent French president, and despite his talk about "modernising" he still hasn't gone anywhere near the kind of changes that might be needed to stop French jobs and workers moving over to London and making our lives more fun.
 

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Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
*Sadly I don't think there's a French word for bump*

Not long now... Did anyone watch the debate on the telly last night? I didn't because (a) I was out and (b) even if I'd been in the house I don't have a set.

François Bayrou's just come out in support of François Hollande, it looks to me like Sarko's doomed.
 

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Posted by Sober Preacher's Kid (# 12699) on :
 
Is there any specific ceremony for swearing-in or inducting French presidents or do they just take the tricolour sash to the dry cleaners and then give it to the next person?
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
I watched the debate. I think Sarko won on points (ie he actually made some, where as Hollande is all waffle), but they were both equally rude to each other.

The debate enshrined my conviction that while Sarko is visibly unpleasant, Hollande could well be nastier, just less visibly so. His campaign promises seem largely designed to suggest the opposite of what he actually means. For instance, he has succeeded in giving voters the impression that he will close the much-decried holding centres for refugees, but he let slip in the debate that he won't. I'm sure he would be more rabidly secular (ie anti-clerical) than Sarko has been too.

I was surprised by Bayrou's decision to vote Hollande. The take of one left-leaning paper here is that he thinks Hollande is going to win, knows Hollande's policies will hit the wall of economic reality in a few months, and hopes to be poised as a saviour figure thereafter. Which would be a bit cynical for the guy who comes across trying to keep the moral high ground.

Oh well. I'll be voting Sarko following the debate, but I suspect la vie en rouge is right.

I find myself appallingly ignorant of how powers are passed on, but it's pretty much instantaneous. Certainly there is no swearing-in as in the US.
 

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Posted by Tom Paine's Bones (# 17027) on :
 
As far as I recall, there is a ceremony for the hand-over of powers. There's a motorcade, the band plays, troops march about, he puts on a pretty red white and blue sash etc. I saw it on TV last time.
 

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Posted by ken (# 2460) on :
 
If Hollande wins I shall sing the Marseillaise and buy a bottle of French wine.


And then I will worry about what happens next...
 

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Posted by SeraphimSarov (# 4335) on :
 
No singing of "L'Internationale"?
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by ken:
And then I will worry about what happens next...

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quote:

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Originally posted by SeraphimSarov:
No singing of "L'Internationale"?

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quote:

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Originally posted by Eutychus:
Bear in mind that what happens next is the general election in June. [...] Either way, expect more FN MPs.

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Unfortunately likely.

In Britain local elections and mid-term by-elections always swing against the government. But we don't have a President. And I doubt if the French are less politically bloody-minded than we are.
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
So Hollande wins, but apparently by a much smaller margin than some had predicted. All the socialist politicians on TV so far have looked surprisingly sober. The general election is wide open now.

I have to say the turnout of some 80% for the second round is also much more than expected and a great thing for the country, I hope.
 

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Posted by Rosa Winkel (# 11424) on :
 
Excellent news. One less right-wing leader in power in Europe.
 

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Posted by Trisagion (# 5235) on :
 
We know look forward to the massive climb down from his policy promises or a massive increase in the yield on French Government bonds. The capital market reaction will be interesting.
 

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Posted by Molopata The Rebel (# 9933) on :
 
Watched Sarkozy deliver his defeat speech. He broadly said the right things like respecting the new president and thanking his supporters and all who voted for him. But he did ramble. I guess he realised this was his last walk in the limelight and was not happy to let go.
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
That stampeding sound you hear is the mainstream party leaders on both the right and the left trying to drag the debate back to the centre ready for the general election.

Trisagion, François Hollande already mentioned reducing the debt in his acceptance speech (to a stunned silence from the crowd). I'm not sure all his election promises will last the night.

Most surreal, quintissentially French moment so far: the President of the Corrèze Conseil Régional playing "la vie en rose" on the accordeon on stage immediately after Hollande's speech.
 

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Posted by ken (# 2460) on :
 
He doesn't have to climb down. He can get Ms Merkel to do it all for him. And blame Sarko for signing unequal treaties. No problem.
 

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Posted by Trisagion (# 5235) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by ken:
He doesn't have to climb down. He can get Ms Merkel to do it all for him. And blame Sarko for signing unequal treaties. No problem.

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by Trisagion:
We know look forward to the massive climb down from his policy promises or a massive increase in the yield on French Government bonds. The capital market reaction will be interesting.

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So far, the CAC 40 is up and the bond yield is down.
 

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Posted by Think² (# 1984) on :
 
Perhaps the part of the long term problem is the markets attempting to dictate to democratic governments how they should run their economies. They are not exactly unbiased.

The fact they are unhappy doesn't necessarily mean he's wrong.

ETA e.g. The UK economy shrank by well over 5% gdp in the first recession triggered by the credit crunch - government cuts amount to some fraction of a percent of GDP. They are just a hair shirt to convince the markets to continue to lend at a sensible rate - they don't solve much, the economy has to grow, which it can't do if they cut back too far. You could solve some of the problem if international debt could only be bought at interest rates below some cap set by the IMF. Then the variation would be smaller and more predictable. The markets would still buy bonds because they are reliable returns for 99% of the time.

[ 07. May 2012, 19:36: Message edited by: Think² ]
 

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Posted by Think² (# 1984) on :
 
I meant sovereign debt rather than international debt.
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
I stopped economics at A level, but I think the fact the CAC 40 is up and the yield on bonds is down is a sign the markets are happy (so far)
 

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Posted by Think² (# 1984) on :
 
oops, that would be assumption making an ass out of me. I assumed on the tenor of your previous posts that you were quoting figures that indicated dip without checking. My bad, sorry.
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
Oh, I voted Sarko alright, but I'd rather turn out to be mistaken about Hollande's ability to keep the markets at bay and his general ability to govern than be partisan, especially given the prospects if he fails
 

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Posted by Eutychus (# 3081) on :
 
Surely someone somewhere must have some "prophetic" comment on this? French President Hollande's plane 'hit by lightning'
 

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Posted by Desert Daughter (# 13635) on :
 
Yes, the lightning strike is interesting... I just hope they don't put it down to Angela Merkel...

We've had the Pauli Effect . Now maybe it's time for the Merkel-Effect?

Conspîracy theorists and French Europhobes, take note
 

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Posted by Honest Ron Bacardi (# 38) on :
 

quote:

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Originally posted by Eutychus:
I stopped economics at A level, but I think the fact the CAC 40 is up and the yield on bonds is down is a sign the markets are happy (so far)

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I think the main European markets have been tracking the recent EU-wide GDP figures, showing that the eurozone has avoided recession, which came as a relief (I am told). The exchange rates have been tracking the shorter term effects such as a the Greek crisis.
 

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Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on :
 
I feel better now. I thought yesterday's torrential rain was down to my failure to take an umbrella, now I realise it was the President's fault.
 

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