|
Source: (consider it)
|
Thread: Greek Election and the Euro: Rematch!
|
stonespring
Shipmate
# 15530
|
Posted
So there will be a snap Greek parliamentary election on January 25 and all the talk about "What if SYRIZA wins?" is back. SYRIZA is a far-left alliance that wants to renegotiate the terms of the bailout and is willing to act unilaterally to end austerity even if that means that Greece is kicked out of the Eurozone.
Although SYRIZA is leading in the polls and the traditional parties are doing even worse in the polls than they did before the last elections (there had to be two to get a working coalition), and even though Greece awards a lot of "bonus' parliamentary seats to whatever party gets the most votes in order to help them form a government, it looks like SYRIZA would have to form a coalition to govern, and it doesn't seem that any party that would make it into parliament that either would be willing to work with SYRIZA or that SYRIZA would be willing to work with would allow for a functioning majority, so we may wind up with two or more elections and with voters giving up on SYRIZA after they fail to form a government. (SYRIZA and the European left wing in general will then blame Germany and the banking community for undermining Greek democracy, blah blah.)
Two ironies are:
1. The Greek Communist Party is strongly in favor of ending austerity, throwing out the terms of the bailout, and exiting the Euro, but it is so purist in its old-school Cold War era Communism that it will not form any coalition with anyone, ever. (Like so many far left groups, the Greek Communist Party distrusts others on the far left more than it does its opponents from the right and center). If the Communists did form a coalition with Syriza, they would probably have a majority.
2. The neo-fascist Golden Dawn party also supports throwing out the terms of the bailout, even if that means leaving the Euro. They are more open to cooperation (although perhaps not an actual coalition) with Syriza in parliament than the Communists. But would Syriza be willing to work with neo fascists, even on an ad hoc basis? (I am not sure if Greek law allows for minority governments with confidence and supply agreements with other parties or whether coalitions must be formed.)
Another right-leaning (but nothing like Golden Dawn), Eurosceptic party, the Independent Greeks, is open to working with Syriza but might want to pull Golden Dawn into any agreement so as to improve their bargaining position and to get concessions on cracking down on immigrants - and as I said I don't know if Syriza would make any agreements with Golden Dawn (neither would I given Golden Dawn's history of violence, racism, and illegal activity). Golden Dawn makes the France's National Front seem centrist in comparison.
All that background was really just to show that a functioning Syriza-led government is not that likely, but I admit it's possible.
Here is what I'm really interested in talking about: Germany et al. seem to think that since Portugal and Ireland, though still suffering from austerity and far from thriving economically, are much less vulnerable to economic collapse than they were the last time Greece had an election, that the risk of economic catastrophe (with Spain, Italy, and perhaps even France at risk of being attacked on the bond markets by panicked investors and defaulting on their debt) is low enough this time around that a Greek exit from the Euro, although not necessarily desirable, is a possibility that can be discussed.
So: If a new Greek government wanted to end austerity and renegotiate its bailout, would a Greek exit from the Eurozone be best for the rest of the Eurozone? Could it possibly be a good thing for Greece in the long run, finally giving it the control over its own currency needed to grow its economy with cheap exports? Would it be good for other EU countries not in the Euro (who mostly depend on the Eurozone as their greatest trading partner and want it to be stable)?
This is NOT a thread to argue about the UK or any other country than Greece joining/leaving the Euro or EU. Those arguments can take up many other threads all by themselves
Posts: 1537 | Registered: Mar 2010
| IP: Logged
|
|
Ad Orientem
Shipmate
# 17574
|
Posted
Greece should default on its bailout repayments and leave the Euro, hopefully causing a chain reaction that will bring about and end to the euro once and for all.
Posts: 2606 | From: Finland | Registered: Feb 2013
| IP: Logged
|
|
Horseman Bree
Shipmate
# 5290
|
Posted
Come on, AO, do you really want to go back to large numbers of independent states quarreling all over Europe, just like that Golden Age that never was in 1914 or 1933?
Is peace so boring that you need to cause excitement, like those weird fundies that want to set off The Apocalypse while they are still alive?
--------------------
It's Not That Simple
Posts: 5372 | From: more herring choker than bluenose | Registered: Dec 2003
| IP: Logged
|
|
Ad Orientem
Shipmate
# 17574
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Horseman Bree:
Come on, AO, do you really want to go back to large numbers of independent states quarreling all over Europe, just like that Golden Age that never was in 1914 or 1933?
Is peace so boring that you need to cause excitement, like those weird fundies that want to set off The Apocalypse while they are still alive?
So, a single currency and handing over sovereignty to foreigners stops war does it? Bollocks! Tell that to the Greeks and I'm sure they'd laugh their heads of.f The whole Greek crisis is the fault of the EU.
Posts: 2606 | From: Finland | Registered: Feb 2013
| IP: Logged
|
|
stonespring
Shipmate
# 15530
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Ad Orientem:
quote:
Originally posted by Horseman Bree:
Come on, AO, do you really want to go back to large numbers of independent states quarreling all over Europe, just like that Golden Age that never was in 1914 or 1933?
Is peace so boring that you need to cause excitement, like those weird fundies that want to set off The Apocalypse while they are still alive?
So, a single currency and handing over sovereignty to foreigners stops war does it?
Bollocks! Tell that to the Greeks and I'm sure they'd laugh their heads of.f The whole Greek crisis is the fault of the EU.
Let's not get distracted on a tangent about whether the EU or the Euro should exist in the first place. If you want to discuss that, start another thread. This is about Greece specifically in its situation now, and whether it can renegotiate the bailout while staying in the Euro. If not, should it leave the Euro? If it does, it that good/bad for Greece, the Eurozone, and the rest of the EU?
My opinion is that Syriza probably won't be able to form a government, but current events have been surprising me lately. If it does, maybe that government might collapse once Greece's creditors start rattling their chains, even before the EU has a chance to decide on whether or not to kick Greece out of the Euro.
However, if Greece did leave the Euro, it would initially be very bad for Greece economically (bank runs, etc.) and bad for Europe, but over several years it could be quite good, if some other disaster doesn't happen. Also, the Eurozone would be stronger economically after several years without the insecurity from the Greek crisis, although many other Eurozone economies are not quite yet out of the woods.
My hope is that Greece stays in the Eurozone and that the current deflation and economic stagnation in the Eurozone convinces EU government leaders that it is finally time for Eurobonds, changing the ECB's central mission to allow economic stimulation (which it is already doing although it is not supposed to) and not just fighting inflation, and (eventually) direct taxation of European citizens from the European government, which would allow the EU to do deficit spending in order to stimulate the European economy. The solution is more debt, not less.
Of course you can point to Japan and say look at all their debt and their entrenched deflation and stagnation, but they have fallen to the other temptation facing Europe: shutting out immigrants and not providing the young with opportunities for a future that would make them want to have children (hence a graying population, high unemployment and underemployment of the young, low birth rates, and a demographic time bomb). You can't just have economic stimulus if it is only used to build unneeded roads and give healthcare/pensions to the elderly (granted - everyone needs healthcare and a living income, and the elderly certainly deserve theirs, but any society is headed for economic collapse if it is not educating and employing its youth and bringing in more workers though birth and immigration).
Ok now I've gone on a tangent. My point is I think Greece should both end its austerity (while continuing to reform its dysfunctional and inefficient economy) but stay in the Eurozone. The innumerable connections and ease of trade form having a common currency (and the complexity of financial relationships) would be a Gordian knot to untie at this point (unlike the dissolving of currency unions in the past, given globalization and computerized high-speed finance). The best way to do this is to give the EU itself the power to borrow money and carry out wide-scale economic stimulus that can fund a bailout for the people of Greece and those suffering in just about every Eurozone country, not just a bailout of its financial institutions. Austerity has not produced prosperity, plain and simple.
Posts: 1537 | Registered: Mar 2010
| IP: Logged
|
|
L'organist
Shipmate
# 17338
|
Posted
Almost there, AO: the Greek crisis is the fault of the Greeks, aided and abetted by the EU.
And it doesn't go back to allowing Greece into the Eurozone, it goes all the way back to allowing them into the EU at all: to do that the EU ignored evidence from Interpol and their own investigators about the rampant fraud and corruption that ran (still runs, in many areas) from top to bottom of government in Greece both at national and local level.
What has been starting to happen in Greece over the past 5 years is what should have happened before they were admitted to the EU. But the process of reform is far from complete and many Greeks fear that it would be all too easy for the old 'traditional' ways to reassert themselves.
--------------------
Rara temporum felicitate ubi sentire quae velis et quae sentias dicere licet
Posts: 4950 | From: somewhere in England... | Registered: Sep 2012
| IP: Logged
|
|
stonespring
Shipmate
# 15530
|
Posted
So Bulgaria, Romania, etc., should not have been let into the EU either?
I give up on fighting tangents. I'm going on them myself.
Posts: 1537 | Registered: Mar 2010
| IP: Logged
|
|
Ad Orientem
Shipmate
# 17574
|
Posted
More integration isn't the answer. It will just alienate Europeans more and more, especially when they feel that they're being governed by some Fritz or Pierre in Brussels. Anyway, it's all part of the neo-liberal globalist plan. The only ones who benefit are the fat cats, you know, big business and politicians.
Posts: 2606 | From: Finland | Registered: Feb 2013
| IP: Logged
|
|
orfeo
Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by stonespring:
My point is I think Greece should both end its austerity (while continuing to reform its dysfunctional and inefficient economy) but stay in the Eurozone.
Is that a viable option, though? Is it possible to stay within the Eurozone system while not cooperating with the ideas of the powers in that system?
I'm honestly not sure. I do know that there are some requirements that have to be met before a country joins in the Euro (the "convergence criteria"). I don't know what obligations there are upon a country to maintain certain standards after adoption of the common currency.
--------------------
Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.
Posts: 18173 | From: Under | Registered: Jul 2008
| IP: Logged
|
|
fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
|
Posted
... foreigners ...
--------------------
'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
| IP: Logged
|
|
LeRoc
Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216
|
Posted
quote:
orfeo: I don't know what obligations there are upon a country to maintain certain standards after adoption of the common currency.
I think the rule of having maximum 3% deficit continues after joining.
--------------------
I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)
Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
marzipan
Shipmate
# 9442
|
Posted
Here's a description of the European Fiscal Compact, which eurozone countries are supposed to be applying to stop thing getting even worse (I think that before the crash, there wasn't really any regulation of how euro countries had to behave as it was assumed that everyone would carry on getting richer for ever*)
Note that the only countries fully complying with it at the moment Are Germany and Luxembourg. Greece is not the only country with a debt to GDP ratio of more than 100% (though it's probably the only country seriously considering leaving the Euro to escape it's debts). I don't really understand the rest of the numbers.
*or something. I'm not an economist.
--------------------
formerly cheesymarzipan.
Now containing 50% less cheese
Posts: 917 | From: nowhere in particular | Registered: May 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
JoannaP
Shipmate
# 4493
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
quote:
Originally posted by stonespring:
My point is I think Greece should both end its austerity (while continuing to reform its dysfunctional and inefficient economy) but stay in the Eurozone.
Is that a viable option, though? Is it possible to stay within the Eurozone system while not cooperating with the ideas of the powers in that system?
I'm honestly not sure. I do know that there are some requirements that have to be met before a country joins in the Euro (the "convergence criteria"). I don't know what obligations there are upon a country to maintain certain standards after adoption of the common currency.
Surely, part of the problem is that Greece lied about meeting the "convergence criteria" (or possibly unintentionally misled the EU) and nobody has worked out how to deal with the consequences of that. Greece should never have joined the Eurozone when it did. Now that we know that, expecting it to be able to comply with all the criteria seems a bit unfair.
--------------------
"Freedom for the pike is death for the minnow." R. H. Tawney (quoted by Isaiah Berlin)
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." Benjamin Franklin
Posts: 1877 | From: England | Registered: May 2003
| IP: Logged
|
|
orfeo
Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by marzipan:
Here's a description of the European Fiscal Compact, which eurozone countries are supposed to be applying to stop thing getting even worse (I think that before the crash, there wasn't really any regulation of how euro countries had to behave as it was assumed that everyone would carry on getting richer for ever*)
Fining a country for being in too much debt doesn't seem like a well thought-out plan.
--------------------
Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.
Posts: 18173 | From: Under | Registered: Jul 2008
| IP: Logged
|
|
itsarumdo
Shipmate
# 18174
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
quote:
Originally posted by marzipan:
Here's a description of the European Fiscal Compact, which eurozone countries are supposed to be applying to stop thing getting even worse (I think that before the crash, there wasn't really any regulation of how euro countries had to behave as it was assumed that everyone would carry on getting richer for ever*)
Fining a country for being in too much debt doesn't seem like a well thought-out plan.
Yes - I agree, but I guess the rules were written by bankers, and it's standard banking practice - if the account goes overdrawn, then ramp up the charges....
The whole Euro setup is wring - there's economic evidence right back to medieval times that local economies all have different growths, labour markets, and need individual currencies so that they can adapt to suit how local conditions match regional ones. Globalisation makes that even more so.
--------------------
"Iti sapis potanda tinone" Lycophron
Posts: 994 | From: Planet Zog | Registered: Jul 2014
| IP: Logged
|
|
Pyx_e
Quixotic Tilter
# 57
|
Posted
Capitalism is such a pernicious god. Damned if you do damned if you don't.
I think it best if we stop talking about Greece and hope no one notices there must be losers if we wish to continue to be winners.
--------------------
It is better to be Kind than right.
Posts: 9778 | From: The Dark Tower | Registered: May 2001
| IP: Logged
|
|
chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
quote:
Originally posted by stonespring:
My point is I think Greece should both end its austerity (while continuing to reform its dysfunctional and inefficient economy) but stay in the Eurozone.
Is that a viable option, though? Is it possible to stay within the Eurozone system.
It is, if you allow for fiscal transfers between different regions within the same currency bloc.
Unfortunately, the Germans believe they can run a trade surplus with the rest of the EU forever without any fiscal transfers or any other issues.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
| IP: Logged
|
|
lowlands_boy
Shipmate
# 12497
|
Posted
So, it seems that far left Syriza is going to get about 149 seats (151 needed for overall majority), and has announced a coalition with the right wing party Greek Independents. They'll have a comfortable majority between them.
Lots of finance bigwigs have told them to respect the terms, the euro has gone to a ten year low against the dollar, and I expect anti-austerity parties in other bailed out economies are licking their lips.
What next then?
--------------------
I thought I should update my signature line....
Posts: 836 | From: North West UK | Registered: Apr 2007
| IP: Logged
|
|
Ad Orientem
Shipmate
# 17574
|
Posted
Good on the Greeks. I hope the new government have the balls to do what they said they would.
Posts: 2606 | From: Finland | Registered: Feb 2013
| IP: Logged
|
|
Doc Tor
Deepest Red
# 9748
|
Posted
What they said they wouldn't do is leave the euro.
I think the Syriza victory is enormously significant, and far more than a simple protest vote - there were other parties, including Golden Dawn, to vote for outside of 'business as usual'. I hope our own politicians are watching, and learning.
--------------------
Forward the New Republic
Posts: 9131 | From: Ultima Thule | Registered: Jul 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
|
Posted
Whatever the Greeks do may well have a serious effect on Greece, but I don't think there will be much effect on the Euro and the EU as a whole unless one of the larger troubled economies (ie, Spain or Italy, possibly France) has the same sort of political change. If that happens, then it will affect Germany, and once that happens, there will be change.
--------------------
"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
| IP: Logged
|
|
lowlands_boy
Shipmate
# 12497
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
Whatever the Greeks do may well have a serious effect on Greece, but I don't think there will be much effect on the Euro and the EU as a whole unless one of the larger troubled economies (ie, Spain or Italy, possibly France) has the same sort of political change. If that happens, then it will affect Germany, and once that happens, there will be change.
That's why I don't think the current Troika (European Central Bank, European Commission and the IMF) will be queuing up offer the Greeks an incredible new deal. They won't want other countries getting big ideas either. On the other hand, they won't want all the other countries exiting the Euro.
Apparently the new government has no plans to meet the Troika, and plans to hold talks directly with other governments. Given the supposed independence of the ECB and the primacy of the EC over member states, that will be interesting.
--------------------
I thought I should update my signature line....
Posts: 836 | From: North West UK | Registered: Apr 2007
| IP: Logged
|
|
Ronald Binge
Shipmate
# 9002
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Horseman Bree:
Come on, AO, do you really want to go back to large numbers of independent states quarreling all over Europe, just like that Golden Age that never was in 1914 or 1933?
Is peace so boring that you need to cause excitement, like those weird fundies that want to set off The Apocalypse while they are still alive?
Indeed. The main government party in Ireland, the centre to centre right Fine Gael, has still bigger polling approval than Sinn Fein and the far left. I don't appreciate ideological idiots who for whom the Euro is something abstract or intellectual sticking their oar in. Real people with real livelihoods are involved here, so unless you want to replace my asset values that will be destroyed with a return to the Irish Pound, this time backed by neither GBP nor the DM, anti EU ideologues need to kindly put a cork in it.
We are not all irresponsible idiots in the Eurozone.
[ 26. January 2015, 14:40: Message edited by: Ronald Binge ]
Posts: 477 | From: Brexit's frontline | Registered: Jan 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Horseman Bree:
Come on, AO, do you really want to go back to large numbers of independent states quarreling all over Europe, just like that Golden Age that never was in 1914 or 1933?
There's a difference between being anti-EU and anti the Euro as currently constituted.
There is a case to be made that the current set of policies of increasing austerity within the most troubled areas of Euro Zone are going to lead to an entire wasted generation in terms of growth.
That has all sorts of knock in effects - including a greater chance of future international strife.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
| IP: Logged
|
|
Ad Orientem
Shipmate
# 17574
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Horseman Bree:
Come on, AO, do you really want to go back to large numbers of independent states quarreling all over Europe, just like that Golden Age that never was in 1914 or 1933?
There's a difference between being anti-EU and anti the Euro as currently constituted.
There is a case to be made that the current set of policies of increasing austerity within the most troubled areas of Euro Zone are going to lead to an entire wasted generation in terms of growth.
That has all sorts of knock in effects - including a greater chance of future international strife.
And what do Europe's leaders do? They bury their heads in the sand and call for more centralisation. Fortunately Europeans are beginning to realise that it's all a load of bollocks, that this elite group in Brussels is responsible for the crisis and that the only way to remedy this is to give back powers to national governments and if that means dismantling the Euro than all the better.
Posts: 2606 | From: Finland | Registered: Feb 2013
| IP: Logged
|
|
L'organist
Shipmate
# 17338
|
Posted
AO ![[Overused]](graemlins/notworthy.gif)
Summed-up beautifully.
As for Angela, David and Francois not having much to worry about, they should start to take an interest in Spain.
The main parties of left and right in Spain are not noted for being anything other than supine in the face of EU demands for austerity; elections to the EU parliament have been noted for arousing apathy.
But in 2014 Podemos managed to get 8% of the vote and thus 5 seats, even though it had only been a political party for a few months. Its level of support has grown hugely since then and its founder has made several trips to Athens to compare notes with Mr Tsipras.
--------------------
Rara temporum felicitate ubi sentire quae velis et quae sentias dicere licet
Posts: 4950 | From: somewhere in England... | Registered: Sep 2012
| IP: Logged
|
|
Ronald Binge
Shipmate
# 9002
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:
AO
Summed-up beautifully.
As for Angela, David and Francois not having much to worry about, they should start to take an interest in Spain.
The main parties of left and right in Spain are not noted for being anything other than supine in the face of EU demands for austerity; elections to the EU parliament have been noted for arousing apathy.
But in 2014 Podemos managed to get 8% of the vote and thus 5 seats, even though it had only been a political party for a few months. Its level of support has grown hugely since then and its founder has made several trips to Athens to compare notes with Mr Tsipras.
Well I won't live in a Sinn Fein Ireland. This is not something abstract we're talking about here.
--------------------
Older, bearded (but no wiser)
Posts: 477 | From: Brexit's frontline | Registered: Jan 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
Doc Tor
Deepest Red
# 9748
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Ad Orientem:
And what do Europe's leaders do? They bury their heads in the sand and call for more centralisation. Fortunately Europeans are beginning to realise that it's all a load of bollocks, that this elite group in Brussels is responsible for the crisis and that the only way to remedy this is to give back powers to national governments and if that means dismantling the Euro than all the better.
You make it sound like we're ruled by a bunch of lizards.
Our leaders were put there by us. If we want different leaders, we vote for different parties and have different prime ministers. If we want a less cohesive Europe, we can vote for that, too.
The traffic has, for several decades, been mostly one way. You want someone to blame, then blame the majority of European voters.
--------------------
Forward the New Republic
Posts: 9131 | From: Ultima Thule | Registered: Jul 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
|
Posted
Austerity measures are hurting a lot of people, especially so in countries like Greece, Spain and Portugal that were very badly hit by the recession. The electorate in those countries know that austerity policies are hurting them, so it isn't a big suprise if they vote for parties saying they will ease or remove those measures.
In countries like the UK where austerity measures have not hurt as many people, and those it has affected the impacts have generally been less, I don't think people are going to be swayed by politicians promising to ease those measures. When the hurt isn't as severe people are more likely to think it's a reasonable cost for a sustainable fiscal policy. Yes, people will vote for more funding for the NHS or schools, but many people would want to spend more there regardless of cuts made by the government to reduce national spending. In May in the UK, the political battle lines will be drawn on issues other than a simple anti-austerity platform. Therefore, I don't think the Greek result will directly influence UK politics. The upset caused in financial markets may do, indirectly, especially if they push the UK economy back towards recession.
--------------------
Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
| IP: Logged
|
|
Enoch
Shipmate
# 14322
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Ad Orientem:
... the only way to remedy this is to give back powers to national governments and if that means dismantling the Euro than all the better.
And the national governments have done such a fantastic job of things over the course of the twentieth century.
There is also a simple and obvious fact that can't be ducked, that neither Mr Micawber, nor any other private person nor a government can spend more than they earn without there being a day of reckoning.
--------------------
Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson
Posts: 7610 | From: Bristol UK(was European Green Capital 2015, now Ljubljana) | Registered: Nov 2008
| IP: Logged
|
|
Ad Orientem
Shipmate
# 17574
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
quote:
Originally posted by Ad Orientem:
And what do Europe's leaders do? They bury their heads in the sand and call for more centralisation. Fortunately Europeans are beginning to realise that it's all a load of bollocks, that this elite group in Brussels is responsible for the crisis and that the only way to remedy this is to give back powers to national governments and if that means dismantling the Euro than all the better.
You make it sound like we're ruled by a bunch of lizards.
Our leaders were put there by us. If we want different leaders, we vote for different parties and have different prime ministers. If we want a less cohesive Europe, we can vote for that, too.
The traffic has, for several decades, been mostly one way. You want someone to blame, then blame the majority of European voters.
But Europeans haven't really had a choice. All the main parties are neo-liberal globalists. It's only recently that real alternatives have begun to pop up.
Posts: 2606 | From: Finland | Registered: Feb 2013
| IP: Logged
|
|
L'organist
Shipmate
# 17338
|
Posted
posted by Doc Tor quote:
Our leaders were put there by us. If we want different leaders, we vote for different parties and have different prime ministers. If we want a less cohesive Europe, we can vote for that, too. The traffic has, for several decades, been mostly one way. You want someone to blame, then blame the majority of European voters.
Our leaders, put there by us: yes in the case of the PM of the UK, First Minister in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland.
But NO in the case of the President of the EU: no one in the UK had the chance to vote for the President of the EU Parliament, same as none of us have ever been given a ballot paper with the names of Herman van Rompuy or his successor (Donald Tusk) on it.
And before anyone says these people have all been voted into some European role by their own nation that's not true: Baroness Ashton, EU Representative for Foreign Affairs, is a Brit who's never stood for an election here.
--------------------
Rara temporum felicitate ubi sentire quae velis et quae sentias dicere licet
Posts: 4950 | From: somewhere in England... | Registered: Sep 2012
| IP: Logged
|
|
quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Ad Orientem:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
quote:
Originally posted by Ad Orientem:
And what do Europe's leaders do? They bury their heads in the sand and call for more centralisation. Fortunately Europeans are beginning to realise that it's all a load of bollocks, that this elite group in Brussels is responsible for the crisis and that the only way to remedy this is to give back powers to national governments and if that means dismantling the Euro than all the better.
You make it sound like we're ruled by a bunch of lizards.
Our leaders were put there by us. If we want different leaders, we vote for different parties and have different prime ministers. If we want a less cohesive Europe, we can vote for that, too.
The traffic has, for several decades, been mostly one way. You want someone to blame, then blame the majority of European voters.
But Europeans haven't really had a choice. All the main parties are neo-liberal globalists. It's only recently that real alternatives have begun to pop up.
Yes, in the UK, we have 3 centre-right parties, with little difference between them.
And the alternatives are very difficult to get elected - I was thinking of voting Green, but I live in a safe Tory majority seat, so there is little point, except as a protest. FPTP muffles many people's voices.
--------------------
I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
| IP: Logged
|
|
Ad Orientem
Shipmate
# 17574
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Enoch:
And the national governments have done such a fantastic job of things over the course of the twentieth century.
They may have cocked up now and then but at least they're our governments and not some foreign elite far away who couldn't give a shit. A good example is the sanctions against Russia: it's easy to be for them when they don't really affect your economy. Personally I think we should stick two fingers up at the sanctions.
Posts: 2606 | From: Finland | Registered: Feb 2013
| IP: Logged
|
|
Doc Tor
Deepest Red
# 9748
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Ad Orientem:
But Europeans haven't really had a choice. All the main parties are neo-liberal globalists. It's only recently that real alternatives have begun to pop up.
This is the lizards argument again. If people wanted to vote for alternatives to neo-liberal globalists, then they would have formed their own party, made the arguments, and swept to power on the back of popular sentiment.
It didn't happen. QED.
--------------------
Forward the New Republic
Posts: 9131 | From: Ultima Thule | Registered: Jul 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
Doc Tor
Deepest Red
# 9748
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Yes, in the UK, we have 3 centre-right parties, with little difference between them.
And the alternatives are very difficult to get elected - I was thinking of voting Green, but I live in a safe Tory majority seat, so there is little point, except as a protest. FPTP muffles many people's voices.
This is a valid point, and why I voted for the deeply flawed AV option when it was offered. (As opposed to a simple STV, which was the obvious choice for PR, and therefore not allowed.)
--------------------
Forward the New Republic
Posts: 9131 | From: Ultima Thule | Registered: Jul 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
Ad Orientem
Shipmate
# 17574
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
quote:
Originally posted by Ad Orientem:
But Europeans haven't really had a choice. All the main parties are neo-liberal globalists. It's only recently that real alternatives have begun to pop up.
This is the lizards argument again. If people wanted to vote for alternatives to neo-liberal globalists, then they would have formed their own party, made the arguments, and swept to power on the back of popular sentiment.
It didn't happen. QED.
That's a non sequitur if ever I saw one. Anyway, that's slowly beginning to happen.
Posts: 2606 | From: Finland | Registered: Feb 2013
| IP: Logged
|
|
chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
It didn't happen. QED.
Putting together a party and contesting elections requires a fairly large amount of money in most of the western world, and a fairly friendly media.
There are serious arguments that never see the light of day - for instance, there is a fairly respectable argument to be made that Osborne is currently overdoing the emphasis on austerity - but try to suggest in the media that we shouldn't be so worried about the deficit and see how far that gets you.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
| IP: Logged
|
|
chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Enoch:
There is also a simple and obvious fact that can't be ducked, that neither Mr Micawber, nor any other private person nor a government can spend more than they earn without there being a day of reckoning.
You can't compare a government with a sovereign currency in which they issue debt to a private individual.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
| IP: Logged
|
|
Honest Ron Bacardi
Shipmate
# 38
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Enoch:
There is also a simple and obvious fact that can't be ducked, that neither Mr Micawber, nor any other private person nor a government can spend more than they earn without there being a day of reckoning.
You can't compare a government with a sovereign currency in which they issue debt to a private individual.
But Greece doesn't have a sovereign currency, wherein lies some of the problem, so Enoch's observation is closer to the mark than it would be for, say, the UK or the USA.
--------------------
Anglo-Cthulhic
Posts: 4857 | From: the corridors of Pah! | Registered: May 2001
| IP: Logged
|
|
Doc Tor
Deepest Red
# 9748
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Ad Orientem:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
quote:
Originally posted by Ad Orientem:
But Europeans haven't really had a choice. All the main parties are neo-liberal globalists. It's only recently that real alternatives have begun to pop up.
This is the lizards argument again. If people wanted to vote for alternatives to neo-liberal globalists, then they would have formed their own party, made the arguments, and swept to power on the back of popular sentiment.
It didn't happen. QED.
That's a non sequitur if ever I saw one. Anyway, that's slowly beginning to happen.
Which exactly proves my point. Sorry if previously too few people have agreed with you in the past, but lots of them still don't. That's representative democracy for you.
--------------------
Forward the New Republic
Posts: 9131 | From: Ultima Thule | Registered: Jul 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Enoch:
There is also a simple and obvious fact that can't be ducked, that neither Mr Micawber, nor any other private person nor a government can spend more than they earn without there being a day of reckoning.
You can't compare a government with a sovereign currency in which they issue debt to a private individual.
How many democratically elected governments really have any say in the currency? 99% of monetary policy is set to further business interests, and has been stated elsewhere that benefits the population very indirectly, if at all.
--------------------
"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
| IP: Logged
|
|
Ad Orientem
Shipmate
# 17574
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
quote:
Originally posted by Ad Orientem:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
quote:
Originally posted by Ad Orientem:
But Europeans haven't really had a choice. All the main parties are neo-liberal globalists. It's only recently that real alternatives have begun to pop up.
This is the lizards argument again. If people wanted to vote for alternatives to neo-liberal globalists, then they would have formed their own party, made the arguments, and swept to power on the back of popular sentiment.
It didn't happen. QED.
That's a non sequitur if ever I saw one. Anyway, that's slowly beginning to happen.
Which exactly proves my point. Sorry if previously too few people have agreed with you in the past, but lots of them still don't. That's representative democracy for you.
Chris counters your argument fairly well, that it's not quite as easy as you seem to think it is because the cards are stacked.
Posts: 2606 | From: Finland | Registered: Feb 2013
| IP: Logged
|
|
Jonah the Whale
Ship's pet cetacean
# 1244
|
Posted
I'm going to Poland on Thursday, and I really hate that I can't use my Euros there.
Posts: 2799 | From: Nether Regions | Registered: Aug 2001
| IP: Logged
|
|
Doc Tor
Deepest Red
# 9748
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Ad Orientem:
Chris counters your argument fairly well, that it's not quite as easy as you seem to think it is because the cards are stacked.
He points out a problem with representative democracy, which is where the entry bar for new movements is set.
But as has been shown, it doesn't actually matter where it's set. If you have a groundswell of opinion, it'll happen. Yes, the old parties and old media can make it difficult. What they can't do is prevent it.
I'm not pretending it's easy. I never said it was easy. I'm just saying it's inevitable. All it needs is votes.
--------------------
Forward the New Republic
Posts: 9131 | From: Ultima Thule | Registered: Jul 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
Enoch
Shipmate
# 14322
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Enoch:
There is also a simple and obvious fact that can't be ducked, that neither Mr Micawber, nor any other private person nor a government can spend more than they earn without there being a day of reckoning.
You can't compare a government with a sovereign currency in which they issue debt to a private individual.
Can't you?
The evidence over the last 70 odd years strongly persuades me that the argument that government debt is somehow different and governed by different rules is a convenient delusion. It has been used as an excuse by politicians to massage their consciences with when they want to buy voters with money they haven't got and their economies can't afford to raise.
I could say 'what about PFI?' But I feel a rant coming on.
[ 26. January 2015, 22:25: Message edited by: Enoch ]
--------------------
Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson
Posts: 7610 | From: Bristol UK(was European Green Capital 2015, now Ljubljana) | Registered: Nov 2008
| IP: Logged
|
|
chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Enoch:
The evidence over the last 70 odd years strongly persuades me that the argument that government debt is somehow different and governed by different rules is a convenient delusion.
What evidence would that be? Of course there are problems with runaway national debt in certain circumstances (a lot of which involved foreign denominated debt or currency pegs). That's not the same as the two situations being analogous though.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
| IP: Logged
|
|
chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
I'm not pretending it's easy. I never said it was easy. I'm just saying it's inevitable. All it needs is votes.
Well, clearly from situations elsewhere it can also get to a point where it's as easy to initiate change of government via non-democratic means as it is via democratic means. So at least that's one of the problems with setting the bar too high.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
| IP: Logged
|
|
Doc Tor
Deepest Red
# 9748
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
I'm not pretending it's easy. I never said it was easy. I'm just saying it's inevitable. All it needs is votes.
Well, clearly from situations elsewhere it can also get to a point where it's as easy to initiate change of government via non-democratic means as it is via democratic means. So at least that's one of the problems with setting the bar too high.
And that's certainly something that entrenched power structures need to remember. If there's no legitimate, democratic means to express and affect change, there's always the "let's burn shit down" option. That doesn't always end well.
--------------------
Forward the New Republic
Posts: 9131 | From: Ultima Thule | Registered: Jul 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
And that's certainly something that entrenched power structures need to remember. If there's no legitimate, democratic means to express and affect change, there's always the "let's burn shit down" option. That doesn't always end well.
Absolutely. But to get to this point can take decades, which goes against the idea that if change had to happen it would have happened already, and because it didn't happen there wasn't any support for it.
There is hysteresis and friction in there.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
| IP: Logged
|
|
|
Printer-friendly view
