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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Southern Europe and budget cuts
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the long ranger
Shipmate
# 17109
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Posted
The other day I was talking to a more economic-literate relative, who seems to think that after a period of uncertainty, the EU (and by extension the UK) will get back to growth. His argument seemed to be that Spain, Italy and Portugal will have to make painful public sector cuts as they will have no credibility for future investment without co-operating with their creditors from Northern Europe.
I'm no economist, but this seems to me to be highly unlikely. Governments in Spain and Italy might well agree with Germany about public sector cuts, but the public will not swallow it. So we already see strikes, protests, riots and suicides. Any politician agreeing to savage cuts today must surely expect to be driven out of office at the next opportunity.
And whilst this is understandable, protests in these countries (as in the rest of Europe) seem unlikely to make the situation better. Even if the governments capitulated to the demands of the public, where would the money come from? Either the Germans would stop the flow of funding or the money they received would be spent to placate the protestors, which would therefore reduce spending.
And then it isn't too hard to imagine the rise of new forms of fascism in those places, with new leaders promising to shake off the control of the Germans and give the people back their dignity and pride.
What do you think? Will Spain, Portugal and Italy be able to make the necessary changes to save the Euro?
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"..into the outer darkness where there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth,” “But Rabbi, how can this happen for those who have no teeth?”
"..If some have no teeth, then teeth will be provided.”
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
The rioting is taking place because there is a perception that if they burn enough cars and destroy enough buildings they can convince the government and the rest of Europe that they can go back to the way things were. The way things were is a rather odd situation. They were riding the pigs back for a while, with massive public spending, cheap, badly built apartments for rich folks to play in in Spain, Italy with its unwieldy government structures that were corrupt and costing a bomb, Greece and its notion that paying taxes was 'aspirational' with everyone retiring on fat pensions at 50. It was unsustainable, but undoubtedly wonderful for some while it lasted. But don't be fooled this isn't only about economics.
They may try to go back to it, but they will discover very quickly that they can't. There is no pig to ride on anymore, and the prospect of total collapse and the rise of the right is more certain outside of Europe than it is with it's support and help. Ultimately the countries you speak of (possibly Greece excluded) know what it might be like if they leave Europe. There are enough of them alive still to remember the last time they slipped off into the abyss. The UK has never truly had this experience, and as a result they can continue playing political games and painting Europe as the big baddy - a game that is very distasteful to the rest of Europe, and I suspect that Europe will eventually tire of such games and ask the UK to make a more serious commitment or leave. The result of the UK leaving Europe, frankly doesn't bear thinking about. You already have the rise of the right, and that happened in economic good times. Cutting off your ties to help from countries that have been through this already would be very foolish...or so it seems to me.
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by the long ranger:
Even if the governments capitulated to the demands of the public, where would the money come from?
Yep - that's the problem right there. The people of Greece et al need to get off their butts and start creating some wealth rather than expecting the government to keep handing it to them for free, because their government is fresh out of cash. No amount of rioting is going to change that one simple fact.
Of course, what they want is for some other country's government to start handing them free cash now they've wrung their own government dry. But that ain't gonna happen, and nor should it.
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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aumbry
Shipmate
# 436
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by the long ranger:
Even if the governments capitulated to the demands of the public, where would the money come from?
Yep - that's the problem right there. The people of Greece et al need to get off their butts and start creating some wealth rather than expecting the government to keep handing it to them for free, because their government is fresh out of cash. No amount of rioting is going to change that one simple fact.
Of course, what they want is for some other country's government to start handing them free cash now they've wrung their own government dry. But that ain't gonna happen, and nor should it.
Marvin that really is a travesty of what is happening. The Euro-Madness is gradually grinding down and destroying the economies of Southern Europe by saddling them with an uncompetitive currency and in so doing destroying millions of jobs. I am sure most unemployed people in Greece, Italy, Spain etc do want to get off their butts and start creating some wealth but do not have the opportunity. The money is needed just to keep basic services in place. The British would have been in the same mess if we had gone into the Euro as wished for by Blair, Clegg et al. France is already heading the way of the PIIGS.
The only good thing about the Euro-debacle is that it has opened the eyes of many people as to the dangers of following the delusions of the European Elite.
[ 13. November 2012, 13:15: Message edited by: aumbry ]
Posts: 3869 | From: Quedlinburg | Registered: Jun 2001
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
Aumbry, you really need to get off that one trick pony. It seems to have escaped your notice time and time again as to why most of the world went into a economic downspin in the last five years.We already know you would love it to be all Europe's fault, but that argument is at best a childish slur and at worst a xenophobia that uses politics as a foil
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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Enoch
Shipmate
# 14322
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
... There are enough of them alive still to remember the last time they slipped off into the abyss. The UK has never truly had this experience, and as a result they can continue playing political games and painting Europe as the big baddy - a game that is very distasteful to the rest of Europe, and I suspect that Europe will eventually tire of such games and ask the UK to make a more serious commitment or leave....
Have you forgotten the seventies, or are you young enough not to remember them as an adult? It was touch and go then. The medicine was extremely painful. It remains controversial to this day. But the alternative is unimaginably horrid.
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Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson
Posts: 7610 | From: Bristol UK(was European Green Capital 2015, now Ljubljana) | Registered: Nov 2008
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by the long ranger:
Even if the governments capitulated to the demands of the public, where would the money come from?
Yep - that's the problem right there. The people of Greece et al need to get off their butts and start creating some wealth rather than expecting the government to keep handing it to them for free, because their government is fresh out of cash. No amount of rioting is going to change that one simple fact.
Of course, what they want is for some other country's government to start handing them free cash now they've wrung their own government dry. But that ain't gonna happen, and nor should it.
The problem with this is that there is no "et al". Spain was running government surpluses before the economic collapse of 2008. Ireland had a lower national debt (as a proportion of GDP) than Germany. With the single exception of Greece, the current economic woes of the GIPSI nations weren't caused by government profligacy under any reasonable definition of the term, and pretending it was has led to a lot of counterproductive policies being enacted.
A lot of this goes from trying to cram an existing event (economies in southern Europe are depressed) into a pre-existing narrative (European economies are inefficient and too generous with social programs), whether it fits or not. In this case, "not".
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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aumbry
Shipmate
# 436
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Aumbry, you really need to get off that one trick pony. It seems to have escaped your notice time and time again as to why most of the world went into a economic downspin in the last five years.We already know you would love it to be all Europe's fault, but that argument is at best a childish slur and at worst a xenophobia that uses politics as a foil
Yes and after the world went into an economic downspin those countries trapped in the Euro have been unable to do anything to revive their economies apart from passing the begging bowl to the Germans. They have no possibility of bringing back competitiveness through devaluation so must instead go through a deflationary depression. Or am I totally mistaken and there is no economic problem in Southern Europe caused by Euro membership? I fear you are deluded if you think that.
Posts: 3869 | From: Quedlinburg | Registered: Jun 2001
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Ricardus
Shipmate
# 8757
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
The rioting is taking place because there is a perception that if they burn enough cars and destroy enough buildings they can convince the government and the rest of Europe that they can go back to the way things were.
I don't think that is correct.
AIUI a lot of the anger in Greece comes from a perception that poor people are being penalised for the tax evasion of the rich and the incompetence of the government. Greek budget cuts will not hurt either politicians or tax-evading shipping magnates but they will hurt old people and the unemployed.
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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)
Posts: 7247 | From: Liverpool, UK | Registered: Nov 2004
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
posted by Enoch:
quote:
Have you forgotten the seventies, or are you young enough not to remember them as an adult?
Resisting the desire to pun on your name.....
Are you seriously suggesting that the UK in the seventies was of a similar experience to Germany under Hitler, Spain under Franco and Italy under Mussolini? I understand there were tensions, but to draw a comparison is frankly absurd.
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
posted by Ricardus:
quote:
AIUI a lot of the anger in Greece comes from a perception that poor people are being penalised for the tax evasion of the rich and the incompetence of the government. Greek budget cuts will not hurt either politicians or tax-evading shipping magnates but they will hurt old people and the unemployed.
While I can't say I think it's so clear cut and as noble as you suggest, ultimately the people in Greece still get to vote and have the power to, at the very least put pressure on a corrupt and self serving government that props up a rich elite (if in fact that is whats going on).
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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Ricardus
Shipmate
# 8757
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Posted
I did say 'a lot of'. I'm sure much of the rioting is self-seeking as well.
And 'oh well they should just vote for politicians who aren't corrupt' may not be very helpful advice. It's not as though political parties that are honest and competent and electable just spring full-grown from the statue of Zeus at Olympia.
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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)
Posts: 7247 | From: Liverpool, UK | Registered: Nov 2004
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
posted by Aumbry:
quote:
Yes and after the world went into an economic downspin those countries trapped in the Euro have been unable to do anything to revive their economies apart from passing the begging bowl to the Germans. They have no possibility of bringing back competitiveness through devaluation so must instead go through a deflationary depression. Or am I totally mistaken and there is no economic problem in Southern Europe caused by Euro membership? I fear you are deluded if you think that.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. And maybe the Uk's economic woes would be better solved with a different currency in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, and The United States will be able to magic jobs from the cabbage patch by splitting up and each one having their own currency, and maybe even Europe could split up again and we can send half of them down the pan into the 1700's again and not bother a jot about being our brother's keeper. Now that would achieve exactly what?
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
quote:
posted by Ricardus:
AIUI a lot of the anger in Greece comes from a perception that poor people are being penalised for the tax evasion of the rich and the incompetence of the government. Greek budget cuts will not hurt either politicians or tax-evading shipping magnates but they will hurt old people and the unemployed.
While I can't say I think it's so clear cut and as noble as you suggest, ultimately the people in Greece still get to vote and have the power to, at the very least put pressure on a corrupt and self serving government that props up a rich elite (if in fact that is whats going on).
Isn't that the usual explanation given for the rising popularity of the Golden Dawn? That people believe they'll take on "a corrupt and self serving government"?
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
quote:
posted by Aumbry:
Yes and after the world went into an economic downspin those countries trapped in the Euro have been unable to do anything to revive their economies apart from passing the begging bowl to the Germans. They have no possibility of bringing back competitiveness through devaluation so must instead go through a deflationary depression. Or am I totally mistaken and there is no economic problem in Southern Europe caused by Euro membership? I fear you are deluded if you think that.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. And maybe the Uk's economic woes would be better solved with a different currency in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, and The United States will be able to magic jobs from the cabbage patch by splitting up and each one having their own currency, and maybe even Europe could split up again and we can send half of them down the pan into the 1700's again and not bother a jot about being our brother's keeper. Now that would achieve exactly what?
Despite your aparent contempt for the subject, economists spend a lot of time and effort analyzing optimum currency areas. I've never heard the Eurozone convincingly described as such. The usual "debating" tactic is a bunch of fluffy, feel-good sentiments about unity, coupled with an outright contempt for anyone raising technocratic objections to workability. [See your own argument above.]
Care to offer a more robust case for why the Eurozone is an optimum currency area?
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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aumbry
Shipmate
# 436
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
posted by Aumbry:
quote:
Yes and after the world went into an economic downspin those countries trapped in the Euro have been unable to do anything to revive their economies apart from passing the begging bowl to the Germans. They have no possibility of bringing back competitiveness through devaluation so must instead go through a deflationary depression. Or am I totally mistaken and there is no economic problem in Southern Europe caused by Euro membership? I fear you are deluded if you think that.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. And maybe the Uk's economic woes would be better solved with a different currency in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, and The United States will be able to magic jobs from the cabbage patch by splitting up and each one having their own currency, and maybe even Europe could split up again and we can send half of them down the pan into the 1700's again and not bother a jot about being our brother's keeper. Now that would achieve exactly what?
Nah Nah Nah - Your suggestion that British regions might be better served by having their own currencies allowing them to set their levels of competiveness against say London and the South East has a lot going for it, certainly much more than having say the North of England's economy straitjacketed by what would be the best exchange rate set by Frankfurt for the Euro. In fact with technology the ability to manage smaller currency areas gains a lot of traction.
The Euro area is a disaster because it is not only a one size fits all but it covers so many disparate economies. As has been pointed out some countries such as Spain and Ireland had budget surpluses before 2008 but these were destroyed by the crash following the property boom which itself was a product of the wrong interest and exchange rates set by the European Central Bank. Others such as Italy and Greece had unmanageable borrowings but these were effectively disguised by Euro membership.
Posts: 3869 | From: Quedlinburg | Registered: Jun 2001
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
Ok, apart from that tiny little thing called the Common Market, why should the USA have the dollar as common currency?
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
posted by Aumbry:
quote:
Nah Nah Nah - Your suggestion that British regions might be better served by having their own currencies allowing them to set their levels of competiveness against say London and the South East has a lot going for it, certainly much more than having say the North of England's economy straitjacketed by what would be the best exchange rate set by Frankfurt for the Euro. In fact with technology the ability to manage smaller currency areas gains a lot of traction.
uh-hu
quote:
The Euro area is a disaster because it is not only a one size fits all but it covers so many disparate economies. As has been pointed out some countries such as Spain and Ireland had budget surpluses before 2008 but these were destroyed by the crash following the property boom which itself was a product of the wrong interest and exchange rates set by the European Central Bank.
Thats an interesting reading of Ireland's economic woes - but it's not true. So what is your magical solution to the Western world's economic downturn? Everybody split up and go it alone?
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
posted by Croseos:
quote:
The usual "debating" tactic is a bunch of fluffy, feel-good sentiments about unity
I kinda like that 'fluffy' stuff about unity and I'd much rather live in a world where nations and people can work together rather than working against each other and constantly thinking the absolute worst about our neighbours.That may be 'fluffy' to you, but it's damned important to me, and possibly a good many others.
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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aumbry
Shipmate
# 436
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Ok, apart from that tiny little thing called the Common Market, why should the USA have the dollar as common currency?
Because it is a single political entity and its population does not begrudge the transfer of wealth to balance the differences between richer and poorer regions. It has also gained enormous benefits from having the dollar as the world's reserve currency the advantages of which make it acceptable to regions which might otherwise have benefited from having their own currency. There is no similar rationale for the Euro as its member states have by and large totally separate economies and taxation systems and as for transfers between the constituent member states we know how popular that would be.
Posts: 3869 | From: Quedlinburg | Registered: Jun 2001
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Ricardus
Shipmate
# 8757
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
posted by Croseos:
quote:
The usual "debating" tactic is a bunch of fluffy, feel-good sentiments about unity
I kinda like that 'fluffy' stuff about unity and I'd much rather live in a world where nations and people can work together rather than working against each other and constantly thinking the absolute worst about our neighbours.That may be 'fluffy' to you, but it's damned important to me, and possibly a good many others.
And why exactly is a single currency necessary for people to work together? Why is a single currency necessary to prevent us thinking the worst of our neighbours?
(In what way is it even effective in preventing people thinking the worst of each other? Look how the Germans and the Greeks loathe each other.)
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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)
Posts: 7247 | From: Liverpool, UK | Registered: Nov 2004
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aumbry
Shipmate
# 436
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
posted by Croseos:
quote:
The usual "debating" tactic is a bunch of fluffy, feel-good sentiments about unity
I kinda like that 'fluffy' stuff about unity and I'd much rather live in a world where nations and people can work together rather than working against each other and constantly thinking the absolute worst about our neighbours.That may be 'fluffy' to you, but it's damned important to me, and possibly a good many others.
Except that the Euro is having the exact opposite effect whereby Mrs Merkel is greeted in Spain, Portugal and Greece with people dressed as Nazi Stormtroopers and the Germans have become the sort of bogeymen that they were seen to be at the end of the war whilst the North stereotypes the South as lazy and feckless.It has provided all sorts of opportunities for extremist parties too.
The Road to Hell is paved with good intentions.
[ 13. November 2012, 16:54: Message edited by: aumbry ]
Posts: 3869 | From: Quedlinburg | Registered: Jun 2001
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aumbry
Shipmate
# 436
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
posted by Aumbry:
quote:
Nah Nah Nah - Your suggestion that British regions might be better served by having their own currencies allowing them to set their levels of competiveness against say London and the South East has a lot going for it, certainly much more than having say the North of England's economy straitjacketed by what would be the best exchange rate set by Frankfurt for the Euro. In fact with technology the ability to manage smaller currency areas gains a lot of traction.
uh-hu
quote:
The Euro area is a disaster because it is not only a one size fits all but it covers so many disparate economies. As has been pointed out some countries such as Spain and Ireland had budget surpluses before 2008 but these were destroyed by the crash following the property boom which itself was a product of the wrong interest and exchange rates set by the European Central Bank.
Thats an interesting reading of Ireland's economic woes - but it's not true. So what is your magical solution to the Western world's economic downturn? Everybody split up and go it alone?
There is a good discussion to be had here but sadly...... not with you.
Posts: 3869 | From: Quedlinburg | Registered: Jun 2001
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
posted by Ricardus:
quote:
And why exactly is a single currency necessary for people to work together?
It isn't, but Europe is about more than just the Euro.
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Ok, apart from that tiny little thing called the Common Market, why should the USA have the dollar as common currency?
Good question. The short answer is that the U.S. has a stronger central authority and greater labor mobility than the Eurozone.
The slightly longer answer is that while having a common market is an important consideration for a common currency area, it is not a sufficient condition. One notable difference is that the U.S. federal government engages in what are essentially transfer payments between its constituent states. In other words, productivity differences between New York and Alabama are resolved by a net transfer of funds from the former to the latter, rather than having Alabama boost its competitiveness by devaluing its currency (the Alabamark?) to tilt its balance of trade in its favor. The Eurozone countries have no similar mechanism in place. In fact, the current economic crisis exists largely because the Eurozone has no similar mechanism in place.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
Croseos, that's fair enough. I know the euro isn't perfect, especially since I live in a Eurozone, but I'm not convinced that pulling out of the Euro (much as I would truly love my old coinage and notes back) right now would make good economic sense. I think the likely outcome would be that some of the less stable countries in Europe would go back to the dark ages with extreme poverty, while others might survive but with an extended depression. I think it would be a huge risk and it's a risk that involves many millions of peoples' lives essentially.
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Croseos, that's fair enough. I know the euro isn't perfect, especially since I live in a Eurozone, but I'm not convinced that pulling out of the Euro (much as I would truly love my old coinage and notes back) right now would make good economic sense. I think the likely outcome would be that some of the less stable countries in Europe would go back to the dark ages with extreme poverty, while others might survive but with an extended depression. I think it would be a huge risk and it's a risk that involves many millions of peoples' lives essentially.
While the Euro was a bad idea implemented more for emotional than technocratic reasons, the deed is done and any reasoning has to acknowledge the currently-existing Eurozone as the base case from which arguments going forward must proceed. So, are the consequences of a country leaving the Euro dire? Yes. They're likely to include, as you mentioned, poverty and an extended depression.
On the other hand, this has to be compared to the consequences of staying on the Euro. The austerity measures being demanded of the various GIPSI countries are causing poverty and extending the current depressed state of those economies. So if that's a condition that's unavoidable whether Greece (or other GIPSI country of your choice) is on the Euro or reverts to its own currency, why not pick the option that lets them avoid similar situations in the future? (i.e. currency independence)
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
I'm not convinced that the creation of an independent currency means that they will never face economic depression again, or that by having an independent currency means that it will somehow get them out of an economic lull. I realise on the other hand that the nature of the Western world's economic woes at present have exposed what could turn out to be a fatal weakness in the Euro in the longer term, but essentially it boils down to risk management as you say, and on the whole I see Europe as more than just about it's currency. It's about both economic and political stability, and other issues like common policy and human rights etc. It's not perfect, but I think its worth a bloody good go.
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
Posts: 5235 | From: a prefecture | Registered: Jul 2008
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
I'm not convinced that the creation of an independent currency means that they will never face economic depression again, or that by having an independent currency means that it will somehow get them out of an economic lull.
No, but it would mean they would be unlikely to have to face an economic depression based on the productivity disparities within the EU again, and it would provide them with a tool (currency devaluation) with a fairly decent track record of resolving this particular type of depression.
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
I realise on the other hand that the nature of the Western world's economic woes at present have exposed what could turn out to be a fatal weakness in the Euro in the longer term, but essentially it boils down to risk management as you say, and on the whole I see Europe as more than just about it's currency. It's about both economic and political stability, and other issues like common policy and human rights etc. It's not perfect, but I think its worth a bloody good go.
Europe is indeed more than just currency. For instance, the UK and Sweden are both members of the EU even though both are outside the Eurozone. Sweden has done fairly well in the current economic downturn, in part because it still controls its own currency. The UK is mostly suffering from the "unforced error" of implementing a lot of unnecessary austerity, mostly for ideosyncratic political reasons.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Ricardus
Shipmate
# 8757
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
posted by Ricardus:
quote:
And why exactly is a single currency necessary for people to work together?
It isn't, but Europe is about more than just the Euro.
Sure, but the point is that while unity among nations is a worthwhile, non-fluffy goal, the logical relationship between unity and a single currency is fluffy, which I think is what Croesos was getting at.
The fact that one encounters anti-euro arguments from both the left and the right inclines me to the belief that hostility to the euro is a respectable economic position rather than a manifestation of Little Englanderism (or Little Swede-ism for that matter).
[ 14. November 2012, 06:48: Message edited by: Ricardus ]
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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)
Posts: 7247 | From: Liverpool, UK | Registered: Nov 2004
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Sylvander
Shipmate
# 12857
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
Look how the Germans and the Greeks loathe each other.
I have yet to meet Germans who "loathe" Greeks and I doubt we'd see demonstrations, flag-burning, puppet-lynching and riots should Mr Samaras find the time to visit Berlin. I also doubt that Greeks in general "loathe" us. But those who do get a lot of attention because the media are fond of riots and Hitler costumes.
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
And maybe the Uk's economic woes would be better solved with a different currency in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland
This reminds of the early 90s when one still bought bank notes at home and brought them on holiday. I found at least one German bank that sold Scottish bank notes cheaper (about 1.5 percent) than English ones. Within the UK both were worth the same.
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A martyr is someone living with a saint.
2509
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Ricardus
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# 8757
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sylvander:
I have yet to meet Germans who "loathe" Greeks and I doubt we'd see demonstrations, flag-burning, puppet-lynching and riots should Mr Samaras find the time to visit Berlin. I also doubt that Greeks in general "loathe" us. But those who do get a lot of attention because the media are fond of riots and Hitler costumes.
OK, 'loathe' was a bit hyperbolic. I was thinking of articles like this or this from Bild.
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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)
Posts: 7247 | From: Liverpool, UK | Registered: Nov 2004
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aumbry
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# 436
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Posted
It must stick in the craw for the Greeks to be lectured by the Germans about putting their house in order because whilst Euro membership is crushing Greece with an exchange rate which is out of kilter with its productivity it works the other way for the Germans who are the real beneficiaries of this skewed system. If Germany had the old Deutsche mark as its currency it would have an exchange rate that would make it considerably more difficult for its companies to export than the Euro does. The Germans were happy to export to Greece before the crisis and were happy for those exports to be paid for by monies loaned to Greece by German banks - so they have in many ways as much responsibility for what has gone wrong in Greece as the Greeks have.
Posts: 3869 | From: Quedlinburg | Registered: Jun 2001
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aumbry
Shipmate
# 436
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Gwai:
quote:
Originally posted by aumbry:
There is a good discussion to be had here but sadly...... not with you.
Then don't talk to him. Comments like that are not at all conducive to discussion.
And where are your efforts in this discussion then?
Posts: 3869 | From: Quedlinburg | Registered: Jun 2001
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Sylvander
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# 12857
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Posted
Tbh it seems to me that the first article makes a list of factual statements which are afaIk accurate. They are so according to the Greek restaurant owner round the corner whom I sometimes talk to. He could at the drop of a hat add a dozen further examples of mind-boggling waste and corruption in his country of origin. He would also subscribe to the description of the different work-ethics here and there. Publishing accurate factual knowledge about another state, even if to its disadvantage, is not loathing or disliking. The tone is condescending (Bild is a tabloid) but then one tends to do condescend when stating obvious realities to someone who constantly refuses to acknowledge them. I have zero understanding for French or Greek strikes against a rise in retirement age when mine was recently raised by a whooping two years AND I am now already subsidising other EU pensioners ![[Mad]](angryfire.gif) .
The tone of the article is sarcastic, but not really spiteful because Greeks are rather well-liked here. Including their lax and leisurely lifestyle which we envy when on holiday and laugh off when back home. The usual admire-ridicule relationship we often have to other cultures.
I suggest this is a good illustration of the situation we're in. Having said that, I'd readily admit that Germany has rather too much of a cricket, too. We'll have to do some dancing in the winters to come... But we'll dance in Hesse, not Hellas.
Posts: 1589 | From: Berlin | Registered: Jul 2007
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Sylvander
Shipmate
# 12857
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
I was thinking of articles like this or this from Bild.
Thanks for this, Ricardus.
Seems to me that the first article makes a list of factual statements which are afaIk accurate. They are so according to the Greek restaurant owner round the corner whom I sometimes talk to. He could at the drop of a hat add a dozen further examples of mind-boggling waste and corruption in his country of origin. He would also subscribe to the description of the different work-ethics here and there. Publishing accurate factual knowledge about another state, even if to its disadvantage, is not loathing or disliking. The tone is condescending (Bild is a tabloid) but then one tends to do condescend when stating obvious realities to someone who constantly refuses to acknowledge them. I have zero understanding for French or Greek strikes against a rise in retirement age when mine was recently raised by a whooping two years AND I am now already subsidising other EU pensioners .
The tone of the article is sarcastic, but not really spiteful because Greeks are rather well-liked here. Including their lax and leisurely lifestyle which we envy when on holiday and laugh off when back home. The usual admire-ridicule relationship we often have to other cultures.
I suggest this is a good illustration of the situation we're in. Having said that, I'd readily admit that Germany has rather too much of a cricket, too. We'll have to do some dancing in the winters to come... But we'd rather dance in Hesse, not Hellas.
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A martyr is someone living with a saint.
2509
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L'organist
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# 17338
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Posted
The fundamental still holds good: the idea of a joint currency across so many widely differeing economies was always doomed - with or without profligate spending by some countries within the currency, rich or poor.
The only way a joint currency had a chance of working would have been if the EU had been limited to the original 6 members - and even then the Italian economy (and less than robust data gathering and rule compliance) might have caused difficulties.
Once the EU was expanded to its current size any attempt at a joint currency without political union was going to be doomed, simply because it requires some degree of equalisation of economic activity that will take decades to achieve, if it is at all possible. And that's to put to one side the other requirement which would be, effectively, political union.
The EU at its current size is rocky as a trade-area, anything more cannot be made to work and the continuing fudge about this helps no one.
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Rara temporum felicitate ubi sentire quae velis et quae sentias dicere licet
Posts: 4950 | From: somewhere in England... | Registered: Sep 2012
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
OK, 'loathe' was a bit hyperbolic. I was thinking of articles like this or this from Bild.
Given the insistence on austerity, don't those articles come across as "you should continue the layoffs until it improves your employment rate"? This sounds an awful lot like Mellon's liquidationism. Any reason to think it'll work better this time around?
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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fletcher christian
Mutinous Seadog
# 13919
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Posted
Posted by l'organist:
quote:
Once the EU was expanded to its current size any attempt at a joint currency without political union was going to be doomed, simply because it requires some degree of equalisation of economic activity that will take decades to achieve, if it is at all possible. And that's to put to one side the other requirement which would be, effectively, political union.
There have been attempts at political union of sorts, but its muddied and has to an extent lost its way more recently in light of other pressing concerns. But at the time when the EU was emerging, Europe was coming out of a frightening time when lots of dictatorships and even communist block countries where collapsing. Now for many of us at the time on the edge of Europe this all looked great, but I suspect if you were living beside such a state you were quickly beginning to wonder what would replace it and the fear of 'failed states' would have been very real. Part of the idea of the EU was to provide some sense of cohesiveness in what was essentially a very turbulent time that could have turned very nasty and frightening very quickly. The Euro was part of that scheme, along with the common market.
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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan
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Curiosity killed ...
Ship's Mug
# 11770
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Posted
One of the street photographers I follow on Flickr is Greek - some of his recent shots have shown elderly women begging on the streets - I asked him if this was common and he said it was.
There was a report on Radio 4's Today this morning about the planned strike, and most of those interviewed in Greece were saying that it was because the rich who were forcing the changes were not going to suffer, it was the poor who were already suffering were going to suffer more.
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Mugs - Keep the Ship afloat
Posts: 13794 | From: outiside the outer ring road | Registered: Aug 2006
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aumbry
Shipmate
# 436
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Gwai:
quote:
Originally posted by aumbry:
quote:
Originally posted by Gwai:
quote:
Originally posted by aumbry:
There is a good discussion to be had here but sadly...... not with you.
Then don't talk to him. Comments like that are not at all conducive to discussion.
And where are your efforts in this discussion then?
I was trying to not have to put on my host hat to deal with your comment. If you prefer:
Purgatory is a debating forum. Let's stick to comments that add light to the discussion.
Thanks.
Gwai,
Purg Host
Having gone to the trouble to explain the effect of the Euro on Southern Europe in some detail I had a reply that consisted of a link to a picture of Doctor Evil, I do not think my comments were unreasonable in the light of this.
Posts: 3869 | From: Quedlinburg | Registered: Jun 2001
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tclune
Shipmate
# 7959
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by aumbry:
Having gone to the trouble to explain the effect of the Euro on Southern Europe in some detail I had a reply that consisted of a link to a picture of Doctor Evil, I do not think my comments were unreasonable in the light of this.
Hostly Hat ON
Aumbry, you've been around here long enough to know that any discusion of a Hostly call belongs in Styx. Drop this now, or it will be referred to an admin.
--Tom Clune, Purgatory Host
Hostly Hat OFF
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Posts: 8013 | From: Western MA | Registered: Jul 2004
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Ronald Binge
Shipmate
# 9002
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Posted
For those who generically lump Ireland into the PIIGS or even more offensive GIPSI meme, the only solidarity expressed yesterday here with the other European protests was a pitifully small protest by the few Socialist Workers Party (who trade under the cuddly-wuddly name of "People before Profit") members of the Irish Parliament outside the Central Bank.
Four years down the line, most people in the Greater Dublin Area still have jobs and the much vaunted meltdown of society hasn't happened, very much to the disappointment of the far Left. Considering that most far Left campaigners spend most of their time on the internet completely failing to understand the small "c" conservative nature of the suburbs and rural Ireland, that is unsurprising.
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Older, bearded (but no wiser)
Posts: 477 | From: Brexit's frontline | Registered: Jan 2005
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Sighthound
Shipmate
# 15185
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Posted
The problem, surely, is that to make the Euro work properly you need political union. This is O Level economics stuff.
The problem is that although folk quite like the idea of not having to change currency when they go on holiday, there is minimal public desire for such a union. In the UK, a change to a socialist republic would likely get more votes. (That is 5% rather than 2%, in case anyone thinks me deluded.)
I just don't understand the mentality of apparently serious politicians who believed the Euro would work across a so-called union of states with different policies and levels of economic prosperity. They were naive at best.
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Supporter of Tia Greyhound and Lurcher Rescue.http://tiagreyhounds.org/
Posts: 168 | From: England | Registered: Sep 2009
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aumbry
Shipmate
# 436
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by tclune:
quote:
Originally posted by aumbry:
Having gone to the trouble to explain the effect of the Euro on Southern Europe in some detail I had a reply that consisted of a link to a picture of Doctor Evil, I do not think my comments were unreasonable in the light of this.
Hostly Hat ON
Aumbry, you've been around here long enough to know that any discusion of a Hostly call belongs in Styx. Drop this now, or it will be referred to an admin.
--Tom Clune, Purgatory Host
Hostly Hat OFF
Well Gwai's intervention was not originally in her capacity as Host and I did not know that she was a host. She clearly did not read the posts before making the original intervention. As for being referred to admini - whadever!
Posts: 3869 | From: Quedlinburg | Registered: Jun 2001
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Ronald Binge
Shipmate
# 9002
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sighthound:
The problem, surely, is that to make the Euro work properly you need political union. This is O Level economics stuff.
The problem is that although folk quite like the idea of not having to change currency when they go on holiday, there is minimal public desire for such a union. In the UK, a change to a socialist republic would likely get more votes. (That is 5% rather than 2%, in case anyone thinks me deluded.)
I just don't understand the mentality of apparently serious politicians who believed the Euro would work across a so-called union of states with different policies and levels of economic prosperity. They were naive at best.
When you live in a small country at the mercy of the financial markets, having your own currency is not all its cracked up to be. If you are in a country with its own economy that is not as dependent on outsiders as Ireland is (ie, the UK), then those who want to can flag wave their own currency as much as they like and be fleeced by the financial institutions making money off the back of currency changing.
If for whatever reason Ireland ends up outside the Euro most people with any cop-on here would prefer to restore the link with Sterling. An independent Irish Pound would be a disaster.
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Older, bearded (but no wiser)
Posts: 477 | From: Brexit's frontline | Registered: Jan 2005
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Ronald Binge
Shipmate
# 9002
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Posted
And just so I'm absolutely clear about this, the Republic of Ireland economy remains far more integrated with the British economy than any other country, and Irish purchase of British goods and services outstrips the BRICs, for example.
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Older, bearded (but no wiser)
Posts: 477 | From: Brexit's frontline | Registered: Jan 2005
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Tubbs
Miss Congeniality
# 440
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by aumbry:
quote:
Originally posted by tclune:
quote:
Originally posted by aumbry:
Having gone to the trouble to explain the effect of the Euro on Southern Europe in some detail I had a reply that consisted of a link to a picture of Doctor Evil, I do not think my comments were unreasonable in the light of this.
Hostly Hat ON
Aumbry, you've been around here long enough to know that any discusion of a Hostly call belongs in Styx. Drop this now, or it will be referred to an admin.
--Tom Clune, Purgatory Host
Hostly Hat OFF
Well Gwai's intervention was not originally in her capacity as Host and I did not know that she was a host. She clearly did not read the posts before making the original intervention. As for being referred to admini - whadever!
Admin Tiara On
Hosts names are displayed clearly at the top of each board and appointments are announced in the Styx. You’ve been around here long enough to know that – and to know that the place to discuss a hostly ruling is in the Styx.
Enjoy your two weeks off. Laters.
Admin Tiara Off
Tubbs
Admin
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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am
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