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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Purgatory: UK Election 2015
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Leorning Cniht
Shipmate
# 17564
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
If the minimum wage is below the acceptable living standard, then somebody (probably the state) is indirectly subsidising employers who employ at the minimum wage by reducing the cost of labour.
To the extent that employers would continue to employ the same people at a "living wage", this is true. To the extent that employers would not, it is false.
Posts: 5026 | From: USA | Registered: Feb 2013
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
Though an additional point is the number of people working multiple jobs to make ends meet. How many people put in a full days work on minimum wage, and then because that isn't enough to live on go and spend the evening working a bar or cleaning dishes at a restaurant? If they were paid a living wage at their main job they would not need to work the second job. But, assuming that second job needs doing, someone else would be doing that instead. Which is more people working, which is good.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Gamaliel
Shipmate
# 812
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Posted
I don't think UKIP are in melt-down, but they are a one trick pony. They need Farage as he is the only one they've got who can string coherent sentences together.
Once he's gone they'll either fade away or shrink to a BNP style rump or shadow of their current selves.
I think Farage has correctly identified how Labour has largely lost the confidence of many in its traditional working class base.
I also agree that they have highlighted issues that the other parties have danced around and avoided.
What I don't like is the way they play on fears and phobias.
I met a few of the local UKIP supporters during this campaign. Here, they are either disaffected old-fashioned Tories from the golf club or else former traditional Labour supporters. I've yet to meet the one councillor they've succeeded in electing.
I think it's reductionist to bring it all down to racism. The former Tory old boy was very politically incorrect and seemed to be living in a Britain that ceased to exist about 1965.
I wouldn't have him down as a racist - and he was smart enough and honest enough to concede that UKIP attracted more than its fair share of fruit-cakes.
I liked the old boy - he had as many critical things to say about Thatcher as he had to say about Blair and others. He also praised the Labour party on some counts. I enjoyed talking to him and his views were far more nuanced than you might have expected.
This applies, in my experience, to people and parties of all persuasions.
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Let us with a gladsome mind
Praise the Lord for He is kind.
http://philthebard.blogspot.com
Posts: 15997 | From: Cheshire, UK | Registered: Jul 2001
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Baptist Trainfan
Shipmate
# 15128
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Posted
I think that Labour are really stuck, quite apart from the issue of Scotland. If they move to the left (as I'd like them to) they won't be able to gain enough votes to be elected. If they sit in the middle they not only become fairly undistinctive but also lose some traditional voters to UKIP.
Their best bet is for the Tories and SNP to foul up hugely, and for UKIP to disappear. But that is out of Labour's hands.
Posts: 9750 | From: The other side of the Severn | Registered: Sep 2009
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
What Labour need is a visionary. Someone who can find the position where they can be clearly seen as a distinctive party with policies for the working people of early 21st century Britain. And, they need that visionary to inspire their own members and the uncommitted electorate.
It seems obvious to me that Tory-lite is not the position they need to stand in. Tory-lite is as pointless as Bud-lite, you might as well have the real thing. And, if any Tory is insulted that I have just compared their party to imported piss-water masquerading as beer, well tough.
They also don't want to go back to the old Labour socialist values - they were what was appropriate 50 years ago, but the nation has changed in 50 years.
I don't know where that position would be. But, it's not my job to find it for them. And, I don't know what visionaries they have that can inspire the party to follow them to the new battle grounds.
I think John Smith had a vision, and would have been a superb Labour PM. Though that was a vision for labour at the end of the 20th century, and may not be the right vision for today. Is there anyone to fill his shoes?
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Albertus
Shipmate
# 13356
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Posted
Blue Labour. But where's the leader? Could Jon Cruddas be persuaded to have a go? Articulate, clever, down to earth and looks like a proper human being (unlike pretty much any of those who've said they're standing so far, and especially that dead-eyed shape-shifting lizard Chukka Umunna, who gives me the willies).
Posts: 6498 | From: Y Sowth | Registered: Jan 2008
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
Possibly, Labour need to have a nervous breakdown, always appropriate after a serious defeat. They are still paralyzed by the poison of Blairism, or Tory-lite. It's very difficult to see where they go now, but that is the point of a nervous breakdown, if you come out the other side!
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
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Baptist Trainfan
Shipmate
# 15128
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Posted
I agree entirely with Alan.
Strangely enough the LibDems came over as further Left than Labour in the run-up to the last election, and gained a lot of support. Of course that evaporated when they ganged up with Team Tory.
Perhaps a new SDP could arise out of the ashes of both Labour and the LibDems?
[ 15. May 2015, 09:23: Message edited by: Baptist Trainfan ]
Posts: 9750 | From: The other side of the Severn | Registered: Sep 2009
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Albertus
Shipmate
# 13356
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Possibly, Labour need to have a nervous breakdown, always appropriate after a serious defeat. They are still paralyzed by the poison of Blairism, or Tory-lite. It's very difficult to see where they go now, but that is the point of a nervous breakdown, if you come out the other side!
I think that 'big' leaders can cast a long shadow which can be very unhealthy for their parties. I'm not sure that the Conservatives, even now, have quite emerged from the shadow of Thatch- perhaps they have, but only quite recently. The same may be happening with Labour and Blair. Controversial as these leaders may have been even within their parties, they developed formulas which delivered electoral success; and when they're gone, a lot of people keep looking back rather than moving on.
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Albertus:
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Possibly, Labour need to have a nervous breakdown, always appropriate after a serious defeat. They are still paralyzed by the poison of Blairism, or Tory-lite. It's very difficult to see where they go now, but that is the point of a nervous breakdown, if you come out the other side!
I think that 'big' leaders can cast a long shadow which can be very unhealthy for their parties. I'm not sure that the Conservatives, even now, have quite emerged from the shadow of Thatch- perhaps they have, but only quite recently. The same may be happening with Labour and Blair. Controversial as these leaders may have been even within their parties, they developed formulas which delivered electoral success; and when they're gone, a lot of people keep looking back rather than moving on.
I think that's right. After 1997, the Tories were all over the place, ditto Labour after Blair. I would say you often need to lose two elections, and have your nervous breakdown. But usually, eventually, there is a recoil effect, as the incumbents appear tarnished. But Labour are paralyzed by neo-liberalism. Blair was clever enough not to appear as right-wing as he really was.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
Starmer looks like the man of the future, but too soon now? Also it's unclear if he is enough of a street fighter, also is he a ******* Blairite?
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
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itsarumdo
Shipmate
# 18174
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Posted
I'd vote for Tristram Hunt
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"Iti sapis potanda tinone" Lycophron
Posts: 994 | From: Planet Zog | Registered: Jul 2014
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Penny S
Shipmate
# 14768
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Posted
Chuka Umunna has pulled out, citing the effect on relations - he had thought he would be able to handle the flak himself.
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itsarumdo
Shipmate
# 18174
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Posted
"I'm human and my life is more important to me than politics"
I did have a tiny thought that the press only need to continue mauling all the best potential candidates and we will just end up with the same old same old again. No other country in the world does this to their potential leaders - which more or less says it all and lays a lot of blame at the door of the tabloids for how UK politics has deteriorated.
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"Iti sapis potanda tinone" Lycophron
Posts: 994 | From: Planet Zog | Registered: Jul 2014
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
Although you can argue that any serious candidate requires a mauling to see if he can hack it. It's no good if you're a powder puff, as PMQs will reduce you to jelly. I thought that US presidential hopefuls also get a right going over, surely Hillary is going to be subject to massive attack?
Put it this way, I want a leader who can be forensic in argument, but who can also put the boot in, and when he gets the same, he can bounce back. Or she.
[ 15. May 2015, 17:03: Message edited by: quetzalcoatl ]
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
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Anglican't
Shipmate
# 15292
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Posted
Interesting that Tony Blair is described as 'poisonous', or worse. Without him, when did Labour last have a convincing win in England? 1966? It looks like that soul-searching is going to have to be pretty deep (if indeed you believe that the Labour party should be a party of government).
Posts: 3613 | From: London, England | Registered: Nov 2009
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Penny S
Shipmate
# 14768
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Posted
Hasn't the US had a go at monstering Obama?
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Doc Tor
Deepest Red
# 9748
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
Interesting that Tony Blair is described as 'poisonous', or worse.
Even if you agreed with his economic policy, his status as an alleged war criminal (Where the fuck is the Chilcot Report?) makes his brand entirely toxic.
I'm not alone in thinking that, either.
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Forward the New Republic
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
Yes, killing hundreds of thousands of people, and destroying the social fabric of a country, goes a bit beyond the balance of payments surplus.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
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Anglican't
Shipmate
# 15292
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
Interesting that Tony Blair is described as 'poisonous', or worse.
Even if you agreed with his economic policy, his status as an alleged war criminal (Where the fuck is the Chilcot Report?) makes his brand entirely toxic.
Not toxic enough to win an election post-invasion, though. But don't get me wrong, I don't like the guy. I spent time trying to get rid of him but it turned out that his colleagues were much better at it.
Posts: 3613 | From: London, England | Registered: Nov 2009
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Anglican't
Shipmate
# 15292
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by itsarumdo:
"I'm human and my life is more important to me than politics"
I did have a tiny thought that the press only need to continue mauling all the best potential candidates and we will just end up with the same old same old again. No other country in the world does this to their potential leaders - which more or less says it all and lays a lot of blame at the door of the tabloids for how UK politics has deteriorated.
I've no idea why Umunna pulled out (or why he entered in the first place, really) but it's odd that he didn't have some idea of the likely media pressure.
While it's fashionable to talk about how politics has deteriorated and the press is to blame and all that, I think it's probably fair to say that Britain has some of the cleanest politics in the developed world. The French must've looked at our parliamentary expenses scandal and thought us rank amateurs.
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
Where the fuck is the Chilcot Report?
Wasn't it being held back so as not to influence the election? Along with some reports of poverty figures and their impact.
Which always seemed very strange. It seemed like someone decided "Let's put the question of who should lead the country for the next five years to the people. But, we won't let them have access to reports and data that might inform their decision".
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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orfeo
Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by itsarumdo:
"I'm human and my life is more important to me than politics"
This is a good reason to be hired. A sense of balance and perspective.
I actually think that's one of the biggest problems in politics. There are too many 'professional politicians' to whom the whole thing is an elaborate game. About politics rather than policy. They started in university and they found it fun.
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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.
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North East Quine
Curious beastie
# 13049
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Posted
Radio 4's Today programme are discussing the Labour landslide by visiting a pub in Rutherglen.
They have just said "and immigration was an issue" and interviewed a UKIP voter. UKIP got 142 votes in Rutherglen, as compared to 10,587 for SNP, 10,411 for Labour and 1807 for the Conservatives. They interviewed 6 people, 3 SNP, 2 Labour and the the Kipper. Why include a Kipper, as evidence that immigration was a factor in the way the vote went? Surely the (unmentioned) fact that UKIP lost their deposit is, in fact, evidence to the contrary?
[ 16. May 2015, 07:53: Message edited by: North East Quine ]
Posts: 6414 | From: North East Scotland | Registered: Oct 2007
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
And, although given it was from a UKIP voter this is unlikely, the phrase "immigration is an issue" is ambiguous. I would agree, immigration is an important issue - the present government policies restricting immigration are an issue, we need more immigrants. That is an issue, but if asked by a pollster "is immigration an issue for you?" wanting a yes/no answer then if I truthfully said 'yes' I would be misrepresented.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
And no discussion of immigration would be complete without at least one person saying, 'why do we never discuss immigration, there is a conspiracy of silence to stifle debate'.
And usually, when given the floor, they say, Father Ted style, 'I'm against it'. And usually they live in a 98% white town, but those 2% are like the pea under the mattress. I know they're there!
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
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Baptist Trainfan
Shipmate
# 15128
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
And no discussion of immigration would be complete without at least one person saying, 'why do we never discuss immigration, there is a conspiracy of silence to stifle debate'.
And no BBC "Question Time" is complete without someone saying, "What we need is to have a sensible, balanced debate" on the subject. ![[Mad]](angryfire.gif)
Posts: 9750 | From: The other side of the Severn | Registered: Sep 2009
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
Places like Clacton amuse me, it looks about 99% white, and there are 3 Asian shop-keepers if you look very carefully, but the white people are BEING OVER-RUN, and I heard somebody speak Italian on the beach!
It's a kind of upside down world, I live in a part of London that is about 47% foreign, and I really don't know how I cope. My street has French people in it, FFS, they speak French. Yours, concerned Resident.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
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Baptist Trainfan
Shipmate
# 15128
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Posted
Why any sensible Italian would want to come to Clacton for their holidays is beyond me ...
Posts: 9750 | From: The other side of the Severn | Registered: Sep 2009
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Touchstone
Shipmate
# 3560
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Posted
I find it so frustrating that UKIP got away with making immigration the scapegoat for all Britain's problems. It's a minor side issue IMO, and I agree with Alan that we probably need more not less.
I blame Labour for this: I don't expect anything better from the Tories but Labour should have aggressively taken on UKIP years ago. A lot of "immigration" issues are actually employment issues (low pay, insecure contracts, exploitation generally) - this is natural territory for Labour and would have won back their traditional supporters.
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Jez we did hand the next election to the Tories on a plate!
Posts: 163 | From: Somewhere west of Bristol | Registered: Nov 2002
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L'organist
Shipmate
# 17338
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Posted
UKIP, the BNP or any of the other parties of that ilk would do better to address the problem of the consistent under-performance of white working class children (particularly boys) in our school system.
And if they did a blind survey of teachers they might find that parental attitude and lack of support has a lot to do with it.
I still remember a friend of my children's father being outraged at school sending home a reading book - "I'm not doing that, its for the school to teach them to read, I've better things to do that waste time like that".
[ 16. May 2015, 09:18: Message edited by: L'organist ]
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Rara temporum felicitate ubi sentire quae velis et quae sentias dicere licet
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Touchstone:
I find it so frustrating that UKIP got away with making immigration the scapegoat for all Britain's problems. It's a minor side issue IMO, and I agree with Alan that we probably need more not less.
I blame Labour for this: I don't expect anything better from the Tories but Labour should have aggressively taken on UKIP years ago. A lot of "immigration" issues are actually employment issues (low pay, insecure contracts, exploitation generally) - this is natural territory for Labour and would have won back their traditional supporters.
But Labour are feeble on so many issues like this, for example, the 'Labour broke the economy' myth. Are they frightened of upsetting Murdoch? Maybe unconsciously they think that the Tories know best.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
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Touchstone
Shipmate
# 3560
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
quote:
Originally posted by Touchstone:
I find it so frustrating that UKIP got away with making immigration the scapegoat for all Britain's problems. It's a minor side issue IMO, and I agree with Alan that we probably need more not less.
I blame Labour for this: I don't expect anything better from the Tories but Labour should have aggressively taken on UKIP years ago. A lot of "immigration" issues are actually employment issues (low pay, insecure contracts, exploitation generally) - this is natural territory for Labour and would have won back their traditional supporters.
But Labour are feeble on so many issues like this, for example, the 'Labour broke the economy' myth. Are they frightened of upsetting Murdoch? Maybe unconsciously they think that the Tories know best.
I think that there was too much complacency about UKIP among the Labour leadership. They thought that UKIP would help the 35% strategy (now proved to be a crock) by taking nore votes off the Tories than Labour. A lot of Labour activists knew that this was very naïve.
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Jez we did hand the next election to the Tories on a plate!
Posts: 163 | From: Somewhere west of Bristol | Registered: Nov 2002
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
Well again, being Londoncentric, why was the UKIP vote low here? In my constituency, they got less than the Greens. Obvious answers are greater prosperity in London, pro-EU sentiment strong, less fear of foreigners, because the place is saturated with them, and probably loads of other stuff.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
Another odd thing is that the Labour vote went up more than the Tory vote. Is this just a London thing, otherwise, yours, baffled Resident.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
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North East Quine
Curious beastie
# 13049
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Posted
UKIP stood in 41 Scottish constituencies and lost their deposit in all 41.
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Touchstone
Shipmate
# 3560
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Posted
Labour were recovering from a bad defeat in 2010, so their vote share would have gone up anyway. It went up most in London and places like London: Young, diverse, well-educated populations with a high level of public sector employment. Elsewhere their vote didn't recover enough to beat the Tories who effectively absorbed the Liberal Democrats (certainly in seats and to a large extent in votes.) The wipe-out in Scotland and the collapse of the traditional Labour vote (too many lost to UKIP or staying home) killed them.
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Jez we did hand the next election to the Tories on a plate!
Posts: 163 | From: Somewhere west of Bristol | Registered: Nov 2002
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by North East Quine:
UKIP stood in 41 Scottish constituencies and lost their deposit in all 41.
It suggests that UKIP thrive in conditions of neglect and decay, as in northern towns and seaside towns. When there is a sense of purpose and dynamism, as in London and Scotland, their vote is low.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by North East Quine:
UKIP stood in 41 Scottish constituencies and lost their deposit in all 41.
A significant change from last year's European Parliament election in which UKIP won 10.7% of the vote (for Parliamentary elections a candidate must win 5% of the votes cast) in Scotland. UKIP won nearly 28% of the vote across the UK, with Scotland bucking the trend, as ever.
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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Baptist Trainfan
Shipmate
# 15128
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Posted
And now Jim Murphy (Scottish Labour) has fallen on his sword ...
Posts: 9750 | From: The other side of the Severn | Registered: Sep 2009
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molopata
The Ship's jack
# 9933
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Posted
He did not fall on his sword, more like he was first suspended and then dropped on his sword. He would have never have been as honourable as to do it himself.
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... The Respectable
Posts: 1718 | From: the abode of my w@ndering mind | Registered: Aug 2005
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Cod
Shipmate
# 2643
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by North East Quine:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
quote:
Originally posted by North East Quine:
That's also what happened in Scotland. However, as Scotland is generally to left of England, it was Cameron who was seen as "extreme" and the "largest minority" went to the SNP.
I understand there is research which states that people in Scotland identify further to the left, however, when asked specific questions on matters such as benefits, immigration, tax, Europe, law and order and so on, there is no difference or leastways a negligible one.
YouGov have asked questions on those issues and concluded that Scots are to the left. However, YouGov draw from a pool of people who have signed up to receive opinion polls, which probably affects the outcomes.
Here's an example You can check any other constituency by clicking on the map.
The page won't load.
However, there is this and this and this. And I suspect that the results would have been identical had people been asked how much extra tax they would be willing to pay.
quote:
But, again, Ormston urges caution: “We often paint ourselves as much more socially democratic and left-wing than the data shows that we are.”
It seems that talk is cheap, unlike taxes.
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"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier
Posts: 4229 | From: New Zealand | Registered: Apr 2002
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Karl: Liberal Backslider
Shipmate
# 76
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:
...the BNP or any of the other parties of that ilk would do better to
...become civilised human beings instead of hateful bastards.
FIFY.
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Might as well ask the bloody cat.
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luvanddaisies
the'fun'in'fundie'™
# 5761
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Posted
Gosh, Charles Kennedy has died.
He seemed a good man and a good politician. He led the Lib Dems to new electoral heights, and he was vocal in his opposition to the Iraq war.
![[Votive]](graemlins/votive.gif)
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"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines, sail away from the safe harbour. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover." (Mark Twain)
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by luvanddaisies:
Gosh, Charles Kennedy has died.
He seemed a good man and a good politician. He led the Lib Dems to new electoral heights, and he was vocal in his opposition to the Iraq war.
He was opposed to the coalition too. Let's not forget that.
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
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North East Quine
Curious beastie
# 13049
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Posted
It's a tragedy. And coming so soon after his father's death in April, a double blow for his family.
I didn't know him, but his father was a work colleague of my father. The whole family were very highly respected in the community. People were confident to elect him an MP at 23, because they knew that he'd had a good upbringing. Tramps and down-and-outs knew they could show up at his parents door and get a hot drink and something to eat. The young Charles grew up sharing the family dinner table with some of the most marginalised in society.
R.I.P. Charles Kennedy.
Posts: 6414 | From: North East Scotland | Registered: Oct 2007
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Matt Black
Shipmate
# 2210
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Posted
Not All Saints but
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"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)
Posts: 14304 | From: Hampshire, UK | Registered: Jan 2002
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rolyn
Shipmate
# 16840
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
He was opposed to the coalition too. Let's not forget that.
If he predicted disastrous consequences for the Lib-Dems as a result of the coalition then at least he lived long enough to see it borne out.
Not that he'd have taken any pleasure from it.
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Change is the only certainty of existence
Posts: 3206 | From: U.K. | Registered: Dec 2011
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