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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Who will lead us now?
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Truman White
Shipmate
# 17290
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Posted
So the Prime Minister announces a timetable for his departure. Who will take his place? How do you get a leader who can lead a Brexit whilst most of his Parliamentary party are pro remain? Or do the Tories take the more pragmatic view of "Who is most likely to win us an election?"
Front runners and dark horses?
Watch this space.
Posts: 476 | Registered: Aug 2012
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Jane R
Shipmate
# 331
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Posted
Lemmings.
If *that* was leadership, you can have it.
Posts: 3958 | From: Jorvik | Registered: May 2001
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betjemaniac
Shipmate
# 17618
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Posted
The MPs get to whittle it down to 2, then the party membership pick one. Essentially if Boris is on the ticket he's going to be the one to beat.
However... the Tories have a long history of not giving it to the favourite, and instead handing things to the stop-the-favourite candidate.
Osborne's not got a cat in hell's chance
Teresa May is the dark horse
don't think Gove will stand
Liam Fox (God help us) is second choice after Boris with the grass roots
someone else might emerge from left field
the main hope is that the Remain majority of Tory MPs stop Boris from getting on the shortlist of 2.
If I was betting I'd have a flutter on May.
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And is it true? For if it is....
Posts: 1481 | From: behind the dreaming spires | Registered: Mar 2013
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Truman White
Shipmate
# 17290
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Posted
Stephen Crabb might be an outside bet. He at least seems to have some empathy with those communities that were overwhelmingly pro-leave.
Posts: 476 | Registered: Aug 2012
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Mili
Shipmate
# 3254
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Posted
I predict Boris Johnson. I'm not a fan, but he has a kind of charm that makes me think he will be PM one day and this may be his time. I felt the same about Tony Abbott back in 2007 when it seemed he had no chance of ever being Australian PM. I can't explain why though. But Johnson's term may be like Abbott's and end disastrously, especially given all the dramas that Brexit is going to cause. (Of course I may be totally wrong as this is just a hunch and I'm certainly not that well versed in UK politics).
Politicians in both Northern Ireland and Scotland are talking about having referendums to leave. I really hope this doesn't stir up the troubles again. At least in Scotland's case I don't think we have to fear violence.
Posts: 1015 | From: Melbourne, Australia | Registered: Aug 2002
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Eirenist
Shipmate
# 13343
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Posted
Boris? Depends on what face is behind the clown's mask. And what sort of chance you give him and Trump in the ring with Putin.
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'I think I think, therefore I think I am'
Posts: 486 | From: Darkest Metroland | Registered: Jan 2008
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Martin60
Shipmate
# 368
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Posted
At 07:10 I said Theresa May. Always has been, for little England and Wales. The party choice...
This will do NOTHING for free market austerity, unless BoJo REALLY wants to be PM and promises the turkeys who voted for Xmas extra pigs in blankets. Which I'm sure he will. Without delivering at all of course. This is going to be a free market feeding frenzy.
So it's BoJo. Although the party will take some convincing.
Labour CANNOT win a general election ever again now, not until the working class and their dependents wake up.
It's BoJo.
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Love wins
Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
Well, you could say that the working class (in part) did wake up, and realized that for decades they have been sold a crap tinny watch, and told it was gold. When did Labour ever explain all the information about neo-liberalism, globalization, immigration? I must have missed the memo.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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SvitlanaV2
Shipmate
# 16967
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Posted
Boris has worked diligently for the top job, so he should be given a chance... for a couple of years.
And then there should be an early election, and we could vote in someone with caring, socialist credentials.
Posts: 6668 | From: UK | Registered: Feb 2012
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Baptist Trainfan
Shipmate
# 15128
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Martin60:
Labour CANNOT win a general election ever again now, not until the working class and their dependents wake up.
And not at all if the Scots up and leave.
Posts: 9750 | From: The other side of the Severn | Registered: Sep 2009
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
It will be a Brexiteer not a Remainer
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by SvitlanaV2:
Boris has worked diligently for the top job, so he should be given a chance... for a couple of years.
Yeah, let's give Boris the keys so he can complete the job of trashing the country. Great idea.
quote:
And then there should be an early election, and we could vote in someone with caring, socialist credentials.
Hahaha.
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arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
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Enoch
Shipmate
# 14322
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Posted
Working diligently for something does not make anyone 'deserve' the reward they seek unless they actually have the personal qualities or abilities to do the job.
Christian charity precludes me from expressing my opinion on the suitability, either on ethical or calibre grounds, of any of the Brexiteers mentioned so far to occupy any high office,whether PM or in the cabinet, yet alone be a District Councillor. Two other names which I would unequivocally include in the same censure but which have not been mentioned so far on this thread, are Jacob Rees-Mogg and Andrea Leadsom.
[ 24. June 2016, 20:30: Message edited by: Enoch ]
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Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson
Posts: 7610 | From: Bristol UK(was European Green Capital 2015, now Ljubljana) | Registered: Nov 2008
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SvitlanaV2
Shipmate
# 16967
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Posted
I wasn't being all that serious, TBH. But someone has to run the country, for better or worse.
None of the options seem particularly wonderful, from my non-specialist perspective, so that being the case, is Boris likely to do any more harm than anyone else? Not if he only has a year or two in office, perhaps.
I think most (all?) of the previous leadership rivals in the Labour party were firm Remainers, so I don't know how they'd get on with running an independent Britain. Maybe the Brexiter Gisela Stuart could do the job. And she's German, so no one could accuse her of being a 'Little Englander'.
Posts: 6668 | From: UK | Registered: Feb 2012
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Martin60
Shipmate
# 368
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Posted
Aye Baptist, that was assumed. SvitlanaV2: Boris is NOWT. Has NOWT. All he can do is let the City rip, throw away all restraint. We'll become ruthlessly libertarian. The welfare state is DEAD. They'll privatize EVERYTHING left behind the façade of the NHS, education. They were anyway. The new axis of evil: 'king Boris's England, Trump, Putin. Joy. Cameron was such a bloody fool. Mervyn King regarded him as a mere boy.
This is a startling example, to me, of the truth that NOTHING works, that's how it works. Brave new fucking made in the USA world.
God help us.
The Christian left must IGNORE it all. Keep calm and carry on.
I promise you this. There will be blood.
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Love wins
Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001
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SvitlanaV2
Shipmate
# 16967
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Posted
I don't think Boris is very trustworthy, but the question is, who else is there?
Posts: 6668 | From: UK | Registered: Feb 2012
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Leorning Cniht
Shipmate
# 17564
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Posted
Boris will clearly put himself forward.
I agree with betjemaniac that Gove won't.
Don't think Osborne has a hope, although his friends will encourage him to run.
Theresa May is a possibility.
Stephen Crabb seems like a fairly decent human being, but I think his relative lack of experience will make people wary of dumping him straight into the PM's seat. He'd probably be in with a chance of being the next-but-one leader, if he wasn't likely to lose his seat in the next election following the Brexit fallout.
Liam Fox has no chance of getting enough support from MPs to be in the final two.
Nicky Morgan has been making hints, but has no chance.
Andrea Leadsom's star is rising, and she'll probably end up with a decent cabinet post, but I don't see her getting the support from MPs.
If Boris is in the final two, he'll win. The only way we won't be looking at Boris as PM is if the Conservative MPs contrive to send two non-Boris candidates to the party.
I think Theresa May will likely be one of the final two. It's not obvious who a second non-Boris could be
Posts: 5026 | From: USA | Registered: Feb 2013
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Martin60
Shipmate
# 368
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Posted
You have your answer SvitlanaV2.
He hasn't the FAINTEST fucking idea.
And there will be blood.
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Love wins
Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001
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Dafyd
Shipmate
# 5549
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Posted
The Guardian speculates that B-S Johnson was hoping for a narrow Remain victory that would leave him in a position to head a coup against Cameron by disaffected Brexit Tories, but avoid the economic chaos.
B-S Johnson has been Mayor of London. His major achievement in that role, apart from seeing in the Boris Bikes that his predecessor Livingstone actually commissioned, has been to hang suspended from a slide line.
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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams
Posts: 10567 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Feb 2004
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Martin60
Shipmate
# 368
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Posted
There you go Dafyd, as the Mirror says, 'What the HELL do we do now?'.
Turkeys? You're CFooked!
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Love wins
Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
After listening to Sir Alan Duncan this morning, I'm not sure the Tory MPs will go for a Brexiteer. Which doesn't mean that the party membership would vote for a Remainer.
Here are the rules.
Only two candidates go forward to the members' vote. The MP's votes might go for two Remainers, rather than have "Big Dipper ride" Boris on the short list. I suppose they might go for Gove, since he's less of a buffoon.
Who would be the strongest Remain candidate on a short list? Not sure. I don't know enough about Tory internal politics. But most of the potential Remain candidates have a lot more "gravitas" than Boris the stunt-man.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Dafyd
Shipmate
# 5549
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Who would be the strongest Remain candidate on a short list? Not sure. I don't know enough about Tory internal politics. But most of the potential Remain candidates have a lot more "gravitas" than Boris the stunt-man.
This has been going around on facebook. Look for the graphic about half to two thirds of the way down.
Basically, Teresa May is the leading Remain candidate, with Osborne runner-up. Some Remain Tories would hold their nose (or not) and go with BS.
Whether the Remain MPs would be quite as tolerant of BS is not clear. Tory MPs have a history of disliking people who nakedly lead coups.
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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams
Posts: 10567 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Feb 2004
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
I had the impression Alan Duncan might be thinking of running, but I don't know how that would play out with his fellow mps.
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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Anglican't
Shipmate
# 15292
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
I had the impression Alan Duncan might be thinking of running, but I don't know how that would play out with his fellow mps.
With much laughter, I'd imagine.
Posts: 3613 | From: London, England | Registered: Nov 2009
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Mili
Shipmate
# 3254
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Posted
Well, my prediction was way off. Maybe Boris Johnson will be one of those politicians who quits politics and becomes more likeable.
Posts: 1015 | From: Melbourne, Australia | Registered: Aug 2002
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
Apologies to Truman White and others. I had a senior moment in opening my own thread on this topic. Am sorting it out.
Barnabas62
Purgatory Host.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Mili
Shipmate
# 3254
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Posted
As a teacher who has teacher friends in the UK I really hope you don't get stuck with Gove. All the UK politicians must be really happy they are in a democracy with all the bloodless knifing going on.
Also my predictive skills for politics are really off at the moment. I never thought the leave side would win the referendum to start with. I'm not even going to try to predict the upcoming Australian election, though I pessimistically am thinking my side will lose again there too.
Posts: 1015 | From: Melbourne, Australia | Registered: Aug 2002
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
Posted by Callan in the closed thread.
quote:
My guess is that it will be between Gove and May in the final ballot and Gove will win because the Tory selectorate will want a Leaver. That said, I had no idea that Gove would knife Johnson at this juncture so Shipmates putting their faith in my eerie powers of prescience may be disappointed.
I hope you are right about your eerie powers on this occasion. I would have thought Liam Fox was more likely to get the Brexit vote. Gove was a self-declared non-candidate until his last minute change of heart/knifing. He's also self-declared as "not prime minister material". Liam Fox is less tainted by association with some of the uglier aspects of Brexit campaigning.
But that's just my logic at work. Plus I really, really, REALLY, don't like Gove. As you said, politics in the UK is a bit of a "bloody Hell!" business at present. The last 24 hours have been dramatic by any standards.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
But that's just my logic at work. Plus I really, really, REALLY, don't like Gove.
As a further data-point, he's on record as being very much against the Good Friday Agreement, calling it a 'capitulation to violence and a validation of terrorism'.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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lowlands_boy
Shipmate
# 12497
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Posted by Callan in the closed thread.
quote:
My guess is that it will be between Gove and May in the final ballot and Gove will win because the Tory selectorate will want a Leaver. That said, I had no idea that Gove would knife Johnson at this juncture so Shipmates putting their faith in my eerie powers of prescience may be disappointed.
I hope you are right about your eerie powers on this occasion. I would have thought Liam Fox was more likely to get the Brexit vote. Gove was a self-declared non-candidate until his last minute change of heart/knifing. He's also self-declared as "not prime minister material". Liam Fox is less tainted by association with some of the uglier aspects of Brexit campaigning.
But that's just my logic at work. Plus I really, really, REALLY, don't like Gove. As you said, politics in the UK is a bit of a "bloody Hell!" business at present. The last 24 hours have been dramatic by any standards.
Liam Fox is rather tainted by an episode of nepotism when he was defence secretary though. Maybe that's just considered a qualification nowadays....
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I thought I should update my signature line....
Posts: 836 | From: North West UK | Registered: Apr 2007
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Callan
Shipmate
# 525
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Posted
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
quote:
Liam Fox is less tainted by association with some of the uglier aspects of Brexit campaigning.
That's "disgraced former Defence Secretary Liam Fox" to give him his full title. I really can't see the PCP putting him on the ballot. Mind you, if they do, I wouldn't bet against him if he's up against a Remainer in the final round. Good God. What a world. What a country!
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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton
Posts: 9757 | From: Citizen of the World | Registered: Jun 2001
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Callan
Shipmate
# 525
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Posted
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
quote:
Originally posted by fausto:
Given all the morning-after "Bremorse" being expressed, how likely is a scenario in which a pro-EU politician seeks and wins the Tory leadership, then as the new Tory PM calls a new parliamentary election, then leads the party and wins the election on a Remain platform, thus reversing the (non-binding, advisory) Brexit referendum? (Or, for that matter, that Labour wins the next parliamentary election on a Remain platform?)
Not very. Because, as expressed ad nauseam elsewhere, it is now too late - already, let alone by the time all that happens - for it simply to be reversed or ignored. Europe is no longer the same place it was last Thursday. We're not in Kansas anymore.
The only way I could see it happening was if there was a snap election and the opposition parties nailed their colours to the mast and got elected on a platform of overturning the result. Which was a long shot. I can't see a Tory doing it and I certainly can't see Teresa May doing it if she puts off going to the country until 2020 when it will be a done deal. (I think the other candidates will follow suit). So basically, I think at this point in the proceedings unless King Arthur emerges from the basement of Cadbury Castle to put a stop to things, we're screwed.
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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton
Posts: 9757 | From: Citizen of the World | Registered: Jun 2001
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
quote:
Liam Fox is less tainted by association with some of the uglier aspects of Brexit campaigning.
That's "disgraced former Defence Secretary Liam Fox" to give him his full title. I really can't see the PCP putting him on the ballot. Mind you, if they do, I wouldn't bet against him if he's up against a Remainer in the final round. Good God. What a world. What a country!
I heard a quite senior "Tory Shires local constituencies" man on the World At One saying he'd be encouraging support for Liam Fox, because he wanted a Brexiteer.
So who would have thunk it? I might even start cheering for Theresa May as the least worst.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
Bookies have May as odds on, Gove as shortpriced second favourite, others as outsiders.
The bookies got the referendum badly wrong of course. I wouldn't bet against "spidey sense" Callan.
Chinese Proverb; "May you live in interesting times". Personally, right now, I'd like a bit more boredom.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Chinese Proverb; "May you live in interesting times". Personally, right now, I'd like a bit more boredom.
It is an English expression falsely purports to be a Chinese curse. So even more apropos than if it had been real.
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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou
Posts: 17627 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
That's something I've learned today lilBuddha. Thanks.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
There is a macabre pleasure in such multiple assassinations. Gove and Boris assassinate Cameron, but Gove assassinates Boris. Benn assassinates Corbyn.
What a pity that Shakespeare is not alive to describe such foul envenom'd plots.
"The treacherous instrument is in thy hand,
Unbated and envenomed; the foul practice
Hath turned itself on me." Hamlet.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Matt Black
Shipmate
# 2210
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Posted
Like Callan, I'm struck by how much (politically, obviously, not literally!) the top echelons of both main parties are beginning to resemble the French Revolutionaries in their last six months of power. Not sure whether Cameron is Hébert and Boris Danton or the other way round, but I really hope Gove will end up like Robespierre ![[Devil]](graemlins/devil.gif)
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"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)
Posts: 14304 | From: Hampshire, UK | Registered: Jan 2002
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Leorning Cniht
Shipmate
# 17564
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
That's "disgraced former Defence Secretary Liam Fox" to give him his full title. I really can't see the PCP putting him on the ballot. Mind you, if they do, I wouldn't bet against him if he's up against a Remainer in the final round.
Now that Boris is out, Theresa May is I think guaranteed to be one of the two. She's a remainder, but is setting out her stall as someone able to negotiate a good deal with the EU. She might well nominate Gove as Minister for Brexit if the election doesn't get nasty.
I think the Brexit MPs will pick Gove over Fox. It's really hard to see an argument from anyone's point of view that would make you prefer Fox.
Angela Leadsom has, I gather, impressed some party members, and has more personality, and is a much better speaker, than Gove. She's rather thin on experience, though, but I'd probably rate her as more likely than Fox to get the support from MPs, but still an outside chance at best.
Posts: 5026 | From: USA | Registered: Feb 2013
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rolyn
Shipmate
# 16840
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Posted
If they don't pick a Brexiter to lead the Party then I think a large chunk of politically activated Leave voters will look to UKIP.
You can't stir folks up, give them a sense that they have succeeded in making something happen, then elect a pro-Remain leader to unhappen it.
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Change is the only certainty of existence
Posts: 3206 | From: U.K. | Registered: Dec 2011
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TurquoiseTastic
Fish of a different color
# 8978
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Posted
That depends on whether UKIP would be savvy and disciplined enough to take advantage of the situation. If they were they would indeed have a golden opportunity to make some hay and steal a stack of Conservative votes on the right. It is eminently possible that they will start in-fighting just like everybody else and let that opportunity slip (I hope so).
Posts: 1092 | From: Hants., UK | Registered: Jan 2005
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Martin60
Shipmate
# 368
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Posted
And with no general election for 4 years that makes a difference how?
All the other parties would back PR to stop a UKIP government.
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Love wins
Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001
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Callan
Shipmate
# 525
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Martin60:
And with no general election for 4 years that makes a difference how?
All the other parties would back PR to stop a UKIP government.
I don't think so. The Tories are dead keen on FPTP. And as any Lb Dem will tell you, in England at least, FPTP does discriminate against third parties.
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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton
Posts: 9757 | From: Citizen of the World | Registered: Jun 2001
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Martin60
Shipmate
# 368
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Posted
So if UKIP start to look like they could form a minority government scorched earth wouldn't be arrayed against them?
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Love wins
Posts: 17586 | From: Never Dobunni after all. Corieltauvi after all. Just moved to the capital. | Registered: Jun 2001
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Leorning Cniht
Shipmate
# 17564
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by rolyn:
If they don't pick a Brexiter to lead the Party then I think a large chunk of politically activated Leave voters will look to UKIP.
You can't stir folks up, give them a sense that they have succeeded in making something happen, then elect a pro-Remain leader to unhappen it.
Depends on what happens. If the Tories pick May, and she picks Gove and Leadsom to play major roles in the Brexit negotiations, then the Leavers will be fine.
I don't see Theresa May deciding to not follow through with Brexit as at all likely. (And she has explicitly said that she will follow through, even though she opposed it.)
Posts: 5026 | From: USA | Registered: Feb 2013
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
I think Theresa May could bring back more than 3 second hand water-cannons. I also think she might get on with Angela Merkel.
Gove is getting hammered by the right wing press. And if Fox is thought to be damaged goods (as well?) that could mean Andrea Leadsom as the other name on the short list of two.
I think May would beat her in the party member vote. Leadsom is famous for saying that Brexit would have no impact on the UK economy.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Matt Black
Shipmate
# 2210
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Posted
Gove now under pressure to drop out, apparently, according to the BBC
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"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)
Posts: 14304 | From: Hampshire, UK | Registered: Jan 2002
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beatmenace
Shipmate
# 16955
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Gove now under pressure to drop out, apparently, according to the BBC
He won't. I think he quite expected people to suggest that initially.
He has a few weeks to turn himself from Brutus to Caesar in the eyes of the Party faithful. There are quite a few Tories who will admire Gove's long game , and wish they had thought of it. Duplicity is a virtue in the nasty party.
We need to remember we are not dealing with normal voting members of the public now.
Posts: 297 | From: Whitley Bay | Registered: Feb 2012
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Matt Black
Shipmate
# 2210
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Posted
Most of Conservative MPs hate him, surely? He's also shown himself to be treacherous twice this year and is quite possibly the most odious and oily leader the Tories could have since Mike-ull Howard
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"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)
Posts: 14304 | From: Hampshire, UK | Registered: Jan 2002
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