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Source: (consider it) Thread: UK General Election June 8th 2017
lowlands_boy
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The Prime Minister has just announced a general election on June 8th. Assuming she can get it through parliament, what's going to happen?

She's just moaned about how everyone else in Westminster (other parties, Lords etc) are all divided over Brexit. So no prizes for guessing what the focus will be.

Putting the motion before the house tomorrow....

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mr cheesy
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I really really hope there is some kind of electoral pact between the Libdems, the SNP, PC to stand against the Tories.

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lowlands_boy
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She's just said it will either be a Conservative majority, or a coalition between Labour and the Lib Dems and possibly everyone else....

She'd better hope she doesn't end up needing a coalition herself.

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Bishops Finger
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O god....as though there isn't enough bad news all round the world already.

No doubt Mrs. Maybe-Maybe-Knott is hoping for an Erdogan-style victory, but, if the gods are kind (if gods there be), her wretched party will actually lose.

I live in hope, not much, but some...

IJ

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mr cheesy
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What we need now is for everyone to decide where they stand - and to have honest manifestos which actually reflect the candidates who are standing.

No more anti-Brexit Tories. No more Brexit Labour or wavering SNP. If you can't support the manifesto, kindly get off the voting paper.

Let's have parties standing for Brexit or non-Brexit not some stupid fudge where nobody has any idea who believes in what.

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Cod
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Can someone explain how the Fixed Term Parliaments Act applies? I understand it requires a two thirds vote in favour of an election, and I'm pretty sure the Tories don't have that many seats.

...although they might after the election.

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mr cheesy
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I think Labour have indicated they'll support.

I'd be pretty stupid for anyone to vote against a GE.

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lowlands_boy
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quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
Can someone explain how the Fixed Term Parliaments Act applies? I understand it requires a two thirds vote in favour of an election, and I'm pretty sure the Tories don't have that many seats.

...although they might after the election.

Corbyn had previously said he would support it. If he decides he doesn't want an election, he'll be pilloried for bottling out for the rest of the term.

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lowlands_boy
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Gerald Kaufman's successor in Manchester is supposed to be elected on 4th May. So whoever wins that - do they have to stand again a few weeks later, or do they just get elected and wait around for a few weeks until everyone else is in?

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kingsfold

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Dear other political parties in Scotland,

Please pull your collective fingers out and manage to make a decent showing against the SNP.

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Cod
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Why? Labour are in disarray. They are likely to lose dozens of seats to the Tories. The Lib Dems, the biggest danger to the Tories in the south, have hardly started rebuilding. They could regain the SW London seats but little else and they could in fact help the Tories by attracting Labour voters alienated by Corbyn. The Tories will probably regain Clacton from UKIP, if Douglas Carswell doesn't return to the fold anyway. They will probably eliminate the UKIP vote: it's been sliding for months. The Tories could even pick up a few extra seats in Scotland.

Basically, unless something very surprising happens, the result will allow Theresa May to conduct Brexit negotiations with an absolute monster majority at her back. That being so, I would have thought it would be more in Labour's interest to tell her to get on with the job and stop buggering around. Labour will be toast.

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Sioni Sais
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quote:
Originally posted by Bishops Finger:
O god....as though there isn't enough bad news all round the world already.

No doubt Mrs. Maybe-Maybe-Knott is hoping for an Erdogan-style victory, but, if the gods are kind (if gods there be), her wretched party will actually lose.

I live in hope, not much, but some...

IJ

UKIP may play its part. The government has entered negotiations with the EU but having announced an election it can't continue those as there is now the possibility that a different kind of government is returned. If it does turn into a Leave/Return fight with the Tories and UKIP in the Leave camp then it is essential for the other parties to defeat them by identifying the likeliest party to defeat the Tory/Ukipper and supporting them, constituency by constituency. Not pretty, not a long term solution but just about the only way to stop the Tories, undo Brexit and reverse the damage done by seven years of lies and toadying to wealth and corporate interests.

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mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
Why? Labour are in disarray. They are likely to lose dozens of seats to the Tories. The Lib Dems, the biggest danger to the Tories in the south, have hardly started rebuilding. They could regain the SW London seats but little else and they could in fact help the Tories by attracting Labour voters alienated by Corbyn. The Tories will probably regain Clacton from UKIP, if Douglas Carswell doesn't return to the fold anyway. They will probably eliminate the UKIP vote: it's been sliding for months. The Tories could even pick up a few extra seats in Scotland.

I think this possibly miscalculates the level of anti-Tory and anti-Brexit feeling in the country. Corbyn clearly has to now come out against Brexit to stand any chance of winning, but I think if the other parties work together they've got a good chance of taking out Tory marginals.

quote:
Basically, unless something very surprising happens, the result will allow Theresa May to conduct Brexit negotiations with an absolute monster majority at her back. That being so, I would have thought it would be more in Labour's interest to tell her to get on with the job and stop buggering around. Labour will be toast.
In some senses here, May is banking on the disarray. I'd say a minority of Tories really support the kind of hard Brexit being pushed by IDS and the other arsewipes, never mind Labour MPs and never mind the rest of the country.

So this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for MPs to take a good hard look in the mirror and decide what it is that they stand for.

Saying that the game is over before it has started is wrong. This isn't over until it is over and May has opened the door to stopping the Brexit madness.

Lead, follow or get out of the way.

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lowlands_boy
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May could also make a big show of "no IndyRef 2" in this election as well.

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Stejjie
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quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
Can someone explain how the Fixed Term Parliaments Act applies? I understand it requires a two thirds vote in favour of an election, and I'm pretty sure the Tories don't have that many seats.

...although they might after the election.

Corbyn had previously said he would support it. If he decides he doesn't want an election, he'll be pilloried for bottling out for the rest of the term.
He's just said he "welcomes" the decision; so presumably it'll go through Parliament no problems tomorrow.

(Can't help wondering if the anti-Corbyn MPs will be hoping that this election will be the time when they're able to get rid of him...)

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mr cheesy
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My guess is that if there is a pact then seats can be taken off the Tories with few casualties from Labour. Given the internal squabbling in Labour, I doubt they'd join an anti-Brexit pact with the other parties, so I think there is a chance that Tories get most seats but no overall majority and can't get anyone to support their hard-Brexit bollocks in coalition.

The other parties might have a majority overall but find it impossible to form a coalition because of the civil war inside the Labour party.

So I think a likely scenario is a minority Tory administration which can't get support for Brexit and so which rapidly falls. If the other parties can get their act together in this period of uncertainty they should be able to do enough to vote out all the Brexit nonsense before another election is called.

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mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
Whatever the Tory majority (and even if the other parties get their act together I reckon thy will get c 400 seats) Britain will still get a lousy deal.

I don't think so. I think there are a fairly significant number of Tory MPs in seats which voted Remain, so it'll be down to other parties to try to capture that vote and show that a vote for the Tories is a vote for the hardest of hard Brexits.

In contrast, the Labour seats that voted Leave are very unlikely to go Tory - because they're also the seats which have been impacted most by austerity. Despite their bluster, even UKIP have failed to make much headway in any of these places.

So I imagine that the Labour Leave seats will very likely reelect Labour with a much reduced turnout, the Tories will come under pressure in the Remain seats and the chances of a larger Tory majority is much reduced.

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lowlands_boy
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quote:
Originally posted by Stejjie:
quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
Can someone explain how the Fixed Term Parliaments Act applies? I understand it requires a two thirds vote in favour of an election, and I'm pretty sure the Tories don't have that many seats.

...although they might after the election.

Corbyn had previously said he would support it. If he decides he doesn't want an election, he'll be pilloried for bottling out for the rest of the term.
He's just said he "welcomes" the decision; so presumably it'll go through Parliament no problems tomorrow.

(Can't help wondering if the anti-Corbyn MPs will be hoping that this election will be the time when they're able to get rid of him...)

One MP in this area, Labour's Chris Matheson of Chester, has just said he will vote against an election. But he has the smallest majority in the house (I think) or less than 100...

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mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
One MP in this area, Labour's Chris Matheson of Chester, has just said he will vote against an election. But he has the smallest majority in the house (I think) or less than 100...

I think we'll be seeing several Labour MPs falling on their swords by the end of the day, and if we're lucky also some Tories.

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Cod
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On my recent trip back, it struck me just how little Brexit was being discussed. I really didn't get the feeling that it was uppermost in people's minds. That being so, I would be surprised if there were any pacts, whether the public would have any patience with them, and anyway, who between?

Perhaps the only real question is whether it would take a repeat of 1931 to get Corbyn out of the way.

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Stejjie
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The thing is, though, the Tories are generally much more focussed on getting into or keeping hold of power: when it comes to the crunch, they're much more likely to put ideological divides behind them and seek to win power (they even dumped their most successful PM in order to make sure they didn't lose the next general election). Given the current poll numbers, given that only 1 Tory MP voted against triggering Article 50, I'd be very surprise if party loyalty didn't trump Brexit concerns, and the Tories didn't get a decent majority. [Waterworks]

ETA: cross-posted with Cod

[ 18. April 2017, 11:08: Message edited by: Stejjie ]

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Cod
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Mr Cheesy - what about Copeland?

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mr cheesy
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I don't know how accurate these numbers are, but I read that of 231 constituencies which voted Remain, 83 were Tory.

If I was doing political strategy, that'd be the ones where I'd be targeting my anti-Brexit resources.

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mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
Mr Cheesy - what about Copeland?

Mm. I'd bet that'll be turned around again. I don't believe that byelections often indicate a fundamental change of political force in an area - the reality is that Tories policies are bad for poor people.

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Garden Hermit
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The SNP in Scotland will now have a lot of issues to consider, and may well lose seats.
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Garden Hermit
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Another problem for my Countrymen (and Women) in Northern Ireland. Now they don't have 2 Governments, - and maybe 2 Elections.
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beatmenace
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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
I think Labour have indicated they'll support.

I'd be pretty stupid for anyone to vote against a GE.

It's pretty dumb for the current Labour party to rush into an Election.

But they have to say they are 'ready whenever' even if they are obviously not.

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Alan Cresswell

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IMO, a GE on a single issue focus is an incredibly bad idea.

So, if we vote in an anti-Brexit (or, at least, an anti-Mays-vision-of-Brexit) government - be that a Labour lead coalition, or a Tory government needing support from others wanting a softer Brexit, or whatever - are we then stuck with that government for the next 5 years regardless of their policies on all the other issues? Or, can we have a GE now to sort out Brexshit and then have one on the scheduled date in 2020 to elect representatives for the rest of the work of Parliament?

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mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by beatmenace:
It's pretty dumb for the current Labour party to rush into an Election.

But they have to say they are 'ready whenever' even if they are obviously not.

Agreed, but obviously you can't really legitimately refuse to fight an election when your opponent has called it. Because that's tacitly admitting you're supporting her government, which would be (a) stupid and (b) impossible to sell to the party, never mind the electorate.

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lowlands_boy
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Manchester and Merseyside are both supposed to be electing a regional mayor on May 4th. Those elections are going to be completely overshadowed now...

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mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
Manchester and Merseyside are both supposed to be electing a regional mayor on May 4th. Those elections are going to be completely overshadowed now...

There are various elections between now and June, I'm guessing non-parliamentary elections go ahead, presumably any pending by-elections go forward to the GE.

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betjemaniac
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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
Manchester and Merseyside are both supposed to be electing a regional mayor on May 4th. Those elections are going to be completely overshadowed now...

There are various elections between now and June, I'm guessing non-parliamentary elections go ahead, presumably any pending by-elections go forward to the GE.
That looks like what's going to happen - although there is apparently some possibility that the metro-mayoral elections will move to the GE date, along with the Gorton by-election. Council elections remain May.

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Matt Black

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It's pretty cynical IMO: Labour will be soundly trounced with Corbyn at the helm which will enable TM to cruise with a solid majority for the next five years...

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rolyn
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If the the remoaners and the regrexits do something odd on June 8 then foregone conclusions might yet again prove false, but in all honesty it really does look like the 1983 Springtime for Tories all over again ...
[Snore]

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Ricardus
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quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
Manchester and Merseyside are both supposed to be electing a regional mayor on May 4th. Those elections are going to be completely overshadowed now...

Pfft - Jürgen Klopp electing a new pair of glasses would overshadow the Merseyside mayoral election ...

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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

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lowlands_boy
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quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
Manchester and Merseyside are both supposed to be electing a regional mayor on May 4th. Those elections are going to be completely overshadowed now...

Pfft - Jürgen Klopp electing a new pair of glasses would overshadow the Merseyside mayoral election ...
I agree - the profile here, on the edge, was already non-existent. The only pressing issue around here is free crossings on the new Mersey bridge arrangements. For those of inside the boundary it will be free anyway. For people over the border in Cheshire West, it will cost, but they can't vote for the mayor anyway.

I've already seen people from Cheshire on Facebook saying they'll be able to stick the boot in to their MP over failed commitments to get free use of the crossings.

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Imaginary Friend

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quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
It's pretty cynical IMO: Labour will be soundly trounced with Corbyn at the helm which will enable TM to cruise with a solid majority for the next five years...

Pretty sure that's why she's doing it. Which makes a mockery of the fixed term parliament act. I know there's the 66% HOC vote loop hole, but this is exactly the kind of maneuver that the act was supposed to stop isn't it?

Meanwhile, there's not one major English party that I have any enthusiasm to vote for. Democracy is dying.

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Alan Cresswell

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quote:
Originally posted by Garden Hermit:
The SNP in Scotland will now have a lot of issues to consider, and may well lose seats.

The SNP got so many seats in 2015 that I don't think there is any way that they can hold onto all of them. Though, with Labour still in disarray, LibDem shenanigans in 2015 still fresh in memory, and the Tories as loathed as always they'll have to work hard to lose very many seats. In Scotland the question of IndyRef2 will loom large - which will work both ways with antagonism towards the Tories blocking Scotland having a chance to have a say supporting the SNP/Greens and the general "we don't want another referendum now" plus Unionism supporting everyone else. The SNP can afford to run this as a single issue election. Labour and Tory, and to a lesser extent LibDems, have to run it as a campaign to form a government and so should be running a broad platform across the range of UK Parliamentary policy subjects (defense, welfare, health, education etc).

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Stejjie
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quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
It's pretty cynical IMO: Labour will be soundly trounced with Corbyn at the helm which will enable TM to cruise with a solid majority for the next five years...

Pretty sure that's why she's doing it. Which makes a mockery of the fixed term parliament act. I know there's the 66% HOC vote loop hole, but this is exactly the kind of maneuver that the act was supposed to stop isn't it?
I agree: if the Act can be overcome this easily (basically by the PM saying, "I'd like to hold an election" and the opposition parties saying, "OK then"), is there much point in having it?

That said, I can't help thinking that the Act itself was a fairly cynical piece of legislation that was less about ensuring good, stable government for the UK and more about making sure any rebellious LibDem or Tory MPs couldn't bring down the 2010-15 coalition in a fit of pique.

quote:
Meanwhile, there's not one major English party that I have any enthusiasm to vote for. Democracy is dying.
Particularly as May's reason for calling the election seems to be, "The other parties aren't playing fair - they keep disagreeing with me and stuff. That's not right. So I'm going to call an election to make them stop".

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PaulTH*
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quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
The Lib Dems, the biggest danger to the Tories in the south, have hardly started rebuilding. They could regain the SW London seats but little else and they could in fact help the Tories by attracting Labour voters alienated by Corbyn. The Tories will probably regain Clacton from UKIP, if Douglas Carswell doesn't return to the fold anyway. They will probably eliminate the UKIP vote: it's been sliding for months. The Tories could even pick up a few extra seats in Scotland

The Lib Dems will likely see a resurgence and have a relatively good election in the South. UKIP will tank because it's done its job. On a recent Question Time Paul Nuttall said he agreed with everything the PM says about Brexit, but he doesn't trust her to deliver it. This makes him irrelevant. Labour will lose seats but not perhaps as badly as some fear. Their support is so geographical that many of their seats are totally safe. It's very likely that the PM will significantly increase her majority.

In Scotland I would expect the hated Tories to do better than they've done for a long time because they're the only dedicated Unionist party there. The SNP will still sweep the board but perhaps with a slightly reduced majority. Remainers have been invited by Tim Farron to send the government a message. If his support is as good as he says, he should go back to 19th century levels of support!

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Tubbs

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
quote:
Originally posted by Garden Hermit:
The SNP in Scotland will now have a lot of issues to consider, and may well lose seats.

The SNP got so many seats in 2015 that I don't think there is any way that they can hold onto all of them. Though, with Labour still in disarray, LibDem shenanigans in 2015 still fresh in memory, and the Tories as loathed as always they'll have to work hard to lose very many seats. In Scotland the question of IndyRef2 will loom large - which will work both ways with antagonism towards the Tories blocking Scotland having a chance to have a say supporting the SNP/Greens and the general "we don't want another referendum now" plus Unionism supporting everyone else. The SNP can afford to run this as a single issue election. Labour and Tory, and to a lesser extent LibDems, have to run it as a campaign to form a government and so should be running a broad platform across the range of UK Parliamentary policy subjects (defense, welfare, health, education etc).
Up to a point. If SNP run on the single issue of IndyRef2, that gives the opposition plenty of opportunity to show they're so focused on that they're not focusing on the other issues facing Scotland and go after them based on their record of delivering government. Which is patchy if I've understood my Scottish friends correctly. And they'll have to come up with a practical plan for how independence will actually work. Including answering the awkward questions about EU membership that they're currently dodging.

Tubbs

PS. I am so fucked off by this already. I can't / won't vote Tory, Labour are bloody useless, the Greens have no chance where I live and only the LibDems appear to be putting up any sort of fight. Ah well ...

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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am

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Marvin the Martian

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quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
Meanwhile, there's not one major English party that I have any enthusiasm to vote for. Democracy is dying.

So create your own Party and campaign for the policies you want to see implemented. Nobody is stopping you. And if enough people agree with your platform then you'll win the election and get to run the country accordingly.

If you don't think you'd get enough votes to win the election then that doesn't mean democracy is dying, it just means the majority (or plurality, if you prefer) of people in the country disagree with how you would want to do things. Which is pretty much the opposite of democracy dying, when you think about it.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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Matt Black

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quote:
Originally posted by Imaginary Friend:
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
It's pretty cynical IMO: Labour will be soundly trounced with Corbyn at the helm which will enable TM to cruise with a solid majority for the next five years...

Pretty sure that's why she's doing it. Which makes a mockery of the fixed term parliament act. I know there's the 66% HOC vote loop hole, but this is exactly the kind of maneuver that the act was supposed to stop isn't it?

Meanwhile, there's not one major English party that I have any enthusiasm to vote for. Democracy is dying.

Lib Dem for me; the only consistently anti-Brexit party.

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"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)

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Marvin the Martian

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quote:
Originally posted by Stejjie:
Particularly as May's reason for calling the election seems to be, "The other parties aren't playing fair - they keep disagreeing with me and stuff. That's not right. So I'm going to call an election to make them stop".

Yes, she wants a bigger majority so that she can enact her policies more easily. Whether she gets it or not is up to the people. Which is as it should be.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
Lib Dem for me; the only consistently anti-Brexit party.

Wrong. Plaid Cymru have always also been anti-Brexit.

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my new book: Biblical But Bollocks. Available in all good bookshops.

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PaulTH*
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This election could turn out to be a hidden blessing for Labour. If it does badly enough it may realise that dumping the numpty in charge is the way forward to recovering its place as an electable political force.

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Yours in Christ
Paul

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betjemaniac
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While we're doing Mystic Meg.... I'll get these out as top of head predictions as per the 2015 thread, then see how reality pans out:

Tory win - majority spread 40-70 (which looks like fence sitting but I'm taking into account polls narrowing over the next few weeks)

Tories second largest party in Scotland on votes and seats - HOLD Dumfriesshire Clydesdale and Tweeddale, GAIN Stirling, Borders and AN Other 2. Potential LOSS in Oxford West and Abingdon but I think Nicola Blackwood will just about hold on in the end.

Carswell to HOLD Clacton

LibDems up to 25-27 seats, taking some off the Tories and some from Labour. Interestingly, they won't resweep the SW - I reckon they'll take back 1 seat in Cornwall, and maybe North Devon. Where they're going to win is Metro-cities.

Labour to not quite have the apocalypse opponents of theirs dream of, but it's still going to hurt a lot. They're going to have casualties in the West Midlands - the Tories really ought to take back Birmingham Edgbaston but the Gisela Stewart factor means they probably won't. Tories to TAKE at least 2 seats in Brum though.

Greens to HOLD in Brighton

SNP to LOSE spread 5-10 seats but pile up vote share elsewhere

I've already booked the day after off work...

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And is it true? For if it is....

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PaulTH*
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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
Wrong. Plaid Cymru have always also been anti-Brexit.

The Welsh voters weren't though. So it leaves us asking how much of Wales the party represents.

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Yours in Christ
Paul

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mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by PaulTH*:
The Welsh voters weren't though. So it leaves us asking how much of Wales the party represents.

What an odd thing to say. Obviously every political party represents the views of the people who vote for them and not those who don't.

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my new book: Biblical But Bollocks. Available in all good bookshops.

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Anglican_Brat
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I'm just a Canadian observer of the UK, but I gather the Tories win because the anti-Tory vote is split five ways among the opposition parties.

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It's Reformation Day! Do your part to promote Christian unity and brotherly love and hug a schismatic.

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