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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Purgatory: What's going on in Ukraine?
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Beeswax Altar
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# 11644
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Posted
This is a decent summary of where the situation stands at the moment.
As of last night, a compromise appeared to be in place that allowed Yanukovych to stay in office albeit with reduced power. Now, parliament voted to remove him from office (who knows if the Ukrainian parliament has that power or if it will even matter) and Yulia Tymoshenko is on her way to Kiev. Yanukovych fled Kiev for Kharkiv and refuses to accept the vote.
I'm wondering what will happen next. What is the likelihood of any election being a repeat of what happened after the last couple of elections and putting Ukrainians right back where they are now? Will Ukraine split into separate nations one close to Europe and one close to Russia? Will there be a civil war? Will the Russians and EU get involved? If so, to what extent?
My guess is elections will be held and the result declared illegitimate by the losing side. I don't know enough about Ukraine to know if partitioning it would work or even if either sides wants to see Ukraine divided into two countries. Unfortunately, some form of violence seems likely. Russia will support Yanukovych and the East. I have no clue how. I'm wondering if this is important enough for them to send troops. How will the EU respond if Russia gets involved? My guess is the EU will not fight the Russians over the Ukraine. Russia isn't the Soviet Union and Europe could counter Russian involvement but it would take a commitment I doubt European powers are willing to make.
What does everybody else think?
[ 28. June 2014, 09:59: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]
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Losing sleep is something you want to avoid, if possible.
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Posts: 8411 | From: By a large lake | Registered: Jul 2006
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Horseman Bree
Shipmate
# 5290
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Posted
The country is divided north and west being identifiably Ukrainian majority, south and east, including Crimea, being identifiably ethnic Russian. Different but related languages*, and a history of mistreatment and mistrust.
The Ukrainians particularly remember the Holodomor, Stalin's deliberate policy of famine, and do not trust Putin, given his obvious need to recreate a Greater Russia.
*I took a basic Russian course at uni in Manitoba. The teacher didn't want Ukrainians in his class, despite being Ukrainian himself, because the languages are similar enough to cause problems in separating the two.
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It's Not That Simple
Posts: 5372 | From: more herring choker than bluenose | Registered: Dec 2003
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
I think the country will split. Given the regional govs of two areas are refusing to accept parliamentary decisions. Plus ot would face save for Russia and the EU.
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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Anglican't
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# 15292
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink:
I think the country will split. ... Plus it would face save for... the EU.
But it would deal quite a blow to the EU's claim that it is fostering 'ever closer union', wouldn't it?
Posts: 3613 | From: London, England | Registered: Nov 2009
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Gamaliel
Shipmate
# 812
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Posted
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I didn't think the EU had a mandate to 'fight' anyone ...
It's an economic union not a military one. The EU isn't NATO.
Or have I missed something?
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Let us with a gladsome mind
Praise the Lord for He is kind.
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Posts: 15997 | From: Cheshire, UK | Registered: Jul 2001
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Gamaliel
Shipmate
# 812
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Posted
Well, I do remember discussions about that following the Kosovo conflict, but my understanding is that EU military capacity outwith the forces which make up NATO and the individual armed forces of the sovereign states that form the membership of the EU is pretty limited ...
That Wikipedia article cites rapid deployment of an astonishing 1500 troops ...
I'm sure that would make a big difference on one side or another ...
Meanwhile, over on Orthodox boards, they're all trumpeting that the opposition in Kiev is full of neo-Nazis and other undesirables and that, as usual, the West is jumping on another anti-Russian bandwagon ...
I suspect that as with the Arab Spring and other uprisings there'll be some pretty unsavoury elements caught up in the protests for certain.
The Ukrainian president seems to have been a prize prat, but then, who knows what might replace him?
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Let us with a gladsome mind
Praise the Lord for He is kind.
http://philthebard.blogspot.com
Posts: 15997 | From: Cheshire, UK | Registered: Jul 2001
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Horseman Bree
Shipmate
# 5290
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Posted
Sorry, forgot to add the Orthodox split between the Kiev Patriarchate and the Moscow one, which might have some impact, particularly from the Russian side.
I see that parliamentarians in the Crimean portion of Ukraine are talking about the takeover of the western part of the country by NeoNazis, so the future doesn't look exactly peaceful. This is, of course, balanced by the Tatars of Crimea being sympathetic to Ukraine rather than Russia.
What fun!
How about another Great patriotic War? A mere quarter of all Ukrainians died in the last one.
And that well-muscled (but not gay -oh no! oh no!) Mr. Putin would never compare himself to Stalin now, would he? He probably doesn't want an all-out war on his doorstep, but he does want Ukraine as a buffer against those Europeans, led by the Germans, of the EU.
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It's Not That Simple
Posts: 5372 | From: more herring choker than bluenose | Registered: Dec 2003
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Enoch
Shipmate
# 14322
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Posted
Once again we hear, "O look there's a civil war going on - we positively MUST go and join in". People said that in 1936. They said it in Bosnia. They've been saying it about Syria. And now they're starting to say it about the Ukraine. Well, what a surprise.
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Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson
Posts: 7610 | From: Bristol UK(was European Green Capital 2015, now Ljubljana) | Registered: Nov 2008
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Schroedinger's cat
Ship's cool cat
# 64
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Posted
I think the last thing they need is more people with arms and an agenda.
It is a civil war. They have occurred in all sort of countries, especially in newly forming countries, as the ex-soviet states are. They will find a solution - what we (outsiders) need to do is enable and support their progress towards a new leadership.
While it is disturbing to watch, and very upsetting to see this from our armchairs, civil wars tend to be bloody, violent and unpleasant. Historically, civil war tends to be very unpleasant. Think of the English war, the US war, the Rwanda war.
I hope they find a solution. I do not expect it will be bloodless, because of the nature of the participants.
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Blog
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take out this broken heart and renew my mind.
Posts: 18859 | From: At the bottom of a deep dark well. | Registered: May 2001
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Ricardus
Shipmate
# 8757
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Gamaliel:
The Ukrainian president seems to have been a prize prat, but then, who knows what might replace him?
That's one way of putting it. A colleague of mine has family in Kiev. They report seeing police snipers deliberately taking aim and shooting unarmed protesters in the head. These deaths are not covering fire gone wrong, they are deliberate murder.
Which means that either Yanukovych is a murderer or else, as seems more likely, the security services are out of control. Which makes Yanukovych's claim of a coup by the protesters somewhat hollow.
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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)
Posts: 7247 | From: Liverpool, UK | Registered: Nov 2004
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Gramps49
Shipmate
# 16378
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Posted
So far the Ukrainian military has stayed out of the fight. They are apparently reluctant to go against the people. But, given the recent events of police snipers shooting unarmed civilians, I am thinking that they need to take control of the police and bring those responsible to military justice. IMHO
Posts: 2193 | From: Pullman WA | Registered: Apr 2011
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Horseman Bree
Shipmate
# 5290
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Posted
Having just recently seen the videos/photos of RCMP/security forces, armed as snipers, trying to sneak up on the unarmed natives who were protesting against fracking up near Rexton, I realise what a thin line there is between "those protestors" and "those who are against us and who aren't really humans at all" in the minds of those who can carry arms - just like the Stand Your Ground gang in the US.
Mantra: There are some people out there who should be shot, and "I" should be the one to do it, because "I" have the gun.
Not that it is much different from the old Imperialist British line about "We have the Maxim gun and they do not"
Similarly to what oil does to government thinking, guns do something to the minds of individuals.
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It's Not That Simple
Posts: 5372 | From: more herring choker than bluenose | Registered: Dec 2003
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Gamaliel
Shipmate
# 812
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Posted
Oddly enough, I decided to cycle down to my nearest Orthodox church this morning - they're usually out of cycling range - and they were discussing Ukraine over tea and coffee afterwards ...
They mentioned the sniper thing and the general consensus seemed to be that the outgoing President was a complete bastard. They certainly weren't Putin fans either - unlike some US Orthodox I've seen online.
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Let us with a gladsome mind
Praise the Lord for He is kind.
http://philthebard.blogspot.com
Posts: 15997 | From: Cheshire, UK | Registered: Jul 2001
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Grammatica
Shipmate
# 13248
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Posted
Timothy Snyder's article "Fascism, Russia, and Ukraine," is online now and will be in the next print issue of the New York Review of Books. Snyder is
Bird White Housum Professor of History at Yale and the author of Bloodlands: Europe Between Hitler and Stalin, which changed the conversation on that very difficult topic. I'd recommend it.
[ 23. February 2014, 19:30: Message edited by: Grammatica ]
Posts: 1058 | From: where the lemon trees blosson | Registered: Dec 2007
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Honest Ron Bacardi
Shipmate
# 38
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Posted
I've just been reviewing a load of pictures - taken by Ukrainians - of the presidential hunting lodge with floating galleon etc. etc. Unlike the invaders of similar carbuncles erected by Saddam Hussein, they seemed more bemused by it all.
Listening to a number of analyses by people actually in Ukraine (both Ukrainians and foreign correspondents), there seemed to be general consensus that there are indeed far-right elements on the streets of Kiev. But that it would be wrong to categorise the uprising as either a right-wing coup or fomented by them alone. There are numerous factions on the streets who would normally make uneasy bedfellows. It seems a more accurate summary would be that Yanukovych has simply pissed off so many people that a viable protest movement could become a reality.
The other message that I started to pick up only today was that quite a number of Ukrainians regard Yulia Tymoshenko as rightfully released from jail, but more part of the problem than the solution.
I don't know. The Crimea is not only broadly Russian - a substantial chunk of Russia's naval force is based there as well. My understanding of the EU position is that support for Ukraine is not to be interpreted as support for an internal split. If those things are true, then I'm not without hope that a viable solution can be found. However, the longer the standoff goes on, the more positions will become polarised, and the more entrenched the right-wing factions could become.
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Anglo-Cthulhic
Posts: 4857 | From: the corridors of Pah! | Registered: May 2001
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no prophet's flag is set so...
Proceed to see sea
# 15560
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Posted
I think we're going to see some 'terrorist' activity, which may be sponsored by Russia, the EU or the USA , or the EU and USA working together. It will be a big mess and we will see extensive FUD
I've heard from a number of first generation Ukrainians living in Canada (there are a lot), that the USA, is sending millions to the Ukraine opposition, and is similarly spending money on other former soviet republics. Don't kid yourself, the EU and the USA see Russia as a main competitor in central Asia and the middle east, and yes, it is about oil and gaining control, though these things are always labelled deceivingly as being about democracy, freedom and other nonsense.
The situation is unstable in Ukraine, with the opposition being non-unitary, including some far right neo-Nazi types like the Svoboda party which is alot like BNP of the UK, and the Hungarian Jobbik party.
Svoboda means freedom, but I particularly don't like the party's symbol, have a look a wikipedia for some more info. They also have a paramilitary wing.
Like the usual adventures in countries that have something we want, our governments will certainly support whomever is the enemy of our enemy including these poisonous people. And they will tell us it is about something good and noble, when it is not.
Don't get me wrong, I'm no fan of Putin, but I am not fond of the "compromises" and "collateral damage" that are going to ensue as our western governments fund this Ukrainian opposition and Putin works with the other side.
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Out of this nettle, danger, we pluck this flower, safety.
\_(ツ)_/
Posts: 11498 | From: Treaty 6 territory in the nonexistant Province of Buffalo, Canada ↄ⃝' | Registered: Mar 2010
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Grammatica
Shipmate
# 13248
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by no prophet:
I think we're going to see some 'terrorist' activity, which may be sponsored by Russia, the EU or the USA , or the EU and USA working together. It will be a big mess and we will see extensive FUD
I've heard from a number of first generation Ukrainians living in Canada (there are a lot), that the USA, is sending millions to the Ukraine opposition, and is similarly spending money on other former soviet republics. Don't kid yourself, the EU and the USA see Russia as a main competitor in central Asia and the middle east, and yes, it is about oil and gaining control, though these things are always labelled deceivingly as being about democracy, freedom and other nonsense.
The situation is unstable in Ukraine, with the opposition being non-unitary, including some far right neo-Nazi types like the Svoboda party which is alot like BNP of the UK, and the Hungarian Jobbik party.
Svoboda means freedom, but I particularly don't like the party's symbol, have a look a wikipedia for some more info. They also have a paramilitary wing.
Like the usual adventures in countries that have something we want, our governments will certainly support whomever is the enemy of our enemy including these poisonous people. And they will tell us it is about something good and noble, when it is not.
Don't get me wrong, I'm no fan of Putin, but I am not fond of the "compromises" and "collateral damage" that are going to ensue as our western governments fund this Ukrainian opposition and Putin works with the other side.
Just thinking, no prophet, that you might want to get a look at Timothy Snyder's article in the NYRB (referenced in my post above). It does present a different, and to me credible, point of view.
I am not at all sure that the US is taking any particular interest in the affairs of Central Europe at the moment, to be honest. I am not sure that the US has in a long time.
[ 23. February 2014, 23:25: Message edited by: Grammatica ]
Posts: 1058 | From: where the lemon trees blosson | Registered: Dec 2007
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orfeo
Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878
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Posted
Maybe it's just me, but I see parallels between Ukraine and Thailand. Opposing political forces taking turns being in charge and whichever side not currently in charge questioning the legitimacy of the government and a general state of unrest over several years.
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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.
Posts: 18173 | From: Under | Registered: Jul 2008
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Beeswax Altar
Shipmate
# 11644
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Posted
quote:
originally posted by Grammatica:
I am not at all sure that the US is taking any particular interest in the affairs of Central Europe at the moment, to be honest. I am not sure that the US has in a long time.
John McCain and Richard Durbin both spoke with Tymoshenko after she was released from prison. However, as a whole, the US isn't interested in the Ukraine and won't play any real roll in the outcome. John McCain will call for Obama to support the opposition because Russia supports Yanukovych. He's never found an internal conflict anywhere in the world that doesn't merit US military intervention. I'm surprised he doesn't call for an invasion of the UK every single time Man United plays Chelsea. After all, Man. United is owned by an American and Chelsea is owned by a Russian.
Ukraine is important to both Russia and the EU. The only question is how important. Putin invaded Georgia. How much of pretext will he need to invade the Ukraine? What will Europe's response be if he does? I suppose that will depend on if Germany and France are comfortable with Putin extending his sphere of influence further West. Does he just want to have some control over all of the former Soviet republics or does he want to extend that influence to the former Warsaw Pact nations?
My guess at answering the questions:
More than required in Georgia but not much
Nothing apart from diplomatic condemnation
Putin wants to control the former Soviet republics.
He likely recognizes Eastern Europe is off limits.
Posts: 8411 | From: By a large lake | Registered: Jul 2006
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no prophet's flag is set so...
Proceed to see sea
# 15560
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Posted
The US is interested in everything. At least interested in irritating Russia.
Here is a BBC report of a transcript of a phone call between USA Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and the US Ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt.
Here's another which discusses the 5 billion spent "... the United States supported the Ukrainians in the development of democratic institutions and skills in promoting civil society and a good form of government - all that is necessary to achieve the objectives of Ukraine's European. We have invested more than 5 billion dollars to help Ukraine to achieve these and other goals."
Here's the Stratfor analysis (it's a USA intelligence company). "The United States is interested in Ukraine as an irritant to Russia but is unwilling to take serious risks. A lot of countries have an interest in Ukraine, none more so than Russia. But for all the noise in Kiev and other cities, the outcome is unlikely to generate a definitive geopolitical shift in Ukraine. It does, however, provide an excellent example of how political unrest in a strategically critical country can affect the international system as a whole."
[ 24. February 2014, 02:58: Message edited by: no prophet ]
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Out of this nettle, danger, we pluck this flower, safety.
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Posts: 11498 | From: Treaty 6 territory in the nonexistant Province of Buffalo, Canada ↄ⃝' | Registered: Mar 2010
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Grammatica
Shipmate
# 13248
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Beeswax Altar:
Putin wants to control the former Soviet republics.
He likely recognizes Eastern Europe is off limits.
Well, perhaps, and then again, perhaps he'd like the Baltics back, too. They have certainly been under pressure from Russia recently.
Posts: 1058 | From: where the lemon trees blosson | Registered: Dec 2007
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orfeo
Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878
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Posted
The extraordinary thing about Ukraine is that if it were anywhere else in Europe, it would be one of the larger more powerful European states. But being next to Russia has tended to turn it into a Russian satellite instead.
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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.
Posts: 18173 | From: Under | Registered: Jul 2008
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la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688
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Posted
Ukrainians have been putting up with the crap for years and AFAICT it’s got to the point where people have well and truly had enough. I visited the country shortly after the Orange Revolution. That time round Yanukovych had got into office after supposedly trying to poison his opponent and rig the election. The protestors sat in the main square for forty days in temperatures of -40°C, never knowing if they were going to be fired on.* On that occasion it worked and they got the president they voted for (Yuschenko) without taking any bullets. I remember how proud they were. But after all that optimism, the country is still a colossal mess nine years on.
The Ukrainians I spoke to at the time (in Kiev) were in favour of closer ties with Europe. Nonetheless, I was told that at the time that there were around 3000 laws that would require amendment before EU entry would be possible.
The whole thing makes me very sad. It’s a beautiful country where I met a lot of wonderful, generous people.
*Comment from my host: “Think about it: a million Ukrainians are out in the street, it’s -40° and no one’s drunk.”
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Rent my holiday home in the South of France
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
I just don't understand why pretty much the only thing both sides agree about is that winning an argument over which countries they'll have closer political and trading ties with is something worth killing for.
Seriously, what the fuck? ![[Disappointed]](graemlins/disappointed.gif) ![[Frown]](frown.gif)
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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Trickydicky
Shipmate
# 16550
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Posted
Going back to earlier in the thread, I learned many years ago (at a Labour Party political education session) that one of the main reasons for the formation of the European Economic Community (fore runner of the EU)was to prevent war in Europe, recognising that both WWI & WWII started with European disagreements.
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If something's worth doing, its worth doing badly. (G K Chesterton)
Posts: 57 | From: Greater Manchester | Registered: Jul 2011
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by pydseybare:
Why is that so hard to understand? They have a huge emotional response to the influence of Russia, why is it so hard to understand this falling over into violence?
Because politics isn't worth killing people over. I mean, I have a strong emotional response to any suggestion of further UK integration with the EU. But I'd never want to kill someone to ensure our independence - it's a matter for discussion and voting, not bullets and bombs.
I also don't get why so many people in the news are saying that splitting the country in two would be a "disaster". If it would allow both sides to get what they want then what's the problem? Surely it would be a better solution than a bloody civil war?
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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pydseybare
Shipmate
# 16184
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Because politics isn't worth killing people over. I mean, I have a strong emotional response to any suggestion of further UK integration with the EU. But I'd never want to kill someone to ensure our independence - it's a matter for discussion and voting, not bullets and bombs.
How do you know that? If you lived in Wales and you heard that France was taking an 'unhealthy' (in your view) interest in Kent, can you not see how that might provoke anger?
quote:
I also don't get why so many people in the news are saying that splitting the country in two would be a "disaster". If it would allow both sides to get what they want then what's the problem? Surely it would be a better solution than a bloody civil war?
Dunno. There is a major problem when the inhabitants of any land have overlapping and contrary understandings of who and what belongs to whom. Whichever the political outcome, if the feelings are strong, war might not be avoided by ceding different parts of the country in different directions.
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"If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future."
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deano
princess
# 12063
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
I also don't get why so many people in the news are saying that splitting the country in two would be a "disaster". If it would allow both sides to get what they want then what's the problem? Surely it would be a better solution than a bloody civil war?
Think about how that policy played out in Northern Ireland though.
There was a de-facto civil war there for decades even though Ireland was split. People have a visceral feeling for country and nationality.
Blood and soil I'm afraid is a potent mix, whether in Ireland, Ukraine or Germany in the 1930's.
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"The moral high ground is slowly being bombed to oblivion. " - Supermatelot
Posts: 2118 | From: Chesterfield | Registered: Nov 2006
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by pydseybare:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Because politics isn't worth killing people over. I mean, I have a strong emotional response to any suggestion of further UK integration with the EU. But I'd never want to kill someone to ensure our independence - it's a matter for discussion and voting, not bullets and bombs.
How do you know that? If you lived in Wales and you heard that France was taking an 'unhealthy' (in your view) interest in Kent, can you not see how that might provoke anger?
Not homicidal anger, no. It's not that important.
quote:
There is a major problem when the inhabitants of any land have overlapping and contrary understandings of who and what belongs to whom. Whichever the political outcome, if the feelings are strong, war might not be avoided by ceding different parts of the country in different directions.
None of us "belongs" to anyone else. If Kent, Cornwall, Wales, Scotland or anywhere else wanted to be independent of the UK then I would be happy to let them secede. It's called self-determination.
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
This much is obvious. But I still don't understand it. How messed up does someone have to be for them to think their preferred political situation is more important than people's lives?
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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deano
princess
# 12063
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
This much is obvious. But I still don't understand it. How messed up does someone have to be for them to think their preferred political situation is more important than people's lives?
Read a history book. In fact read a lot of them. The answers are all in there.
Actually have a look in the Bible as well. You will see many examples of a leaders policy being implemented at the point of a sword.
From Saul, David, Gengis Khan, Alexander the Great, Napoleon, Hitler... there all there.
It's what happens. It ends up in the history books. No logic or rationality. Well except whatever logic and rationality is used to justify it.
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"The moral high ground is slowly being bombed to oblivion. " - Supermatelot
Posts: 2118 | From: Chesterfield | Registered: Nov 2006
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
Yes, I know it happens. The part I don't understand is what motivates them to do it in the first place.
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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Anglican't
Shipmate
# 15292
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
The extraordinary thing about Ukraine is that if it were anywhere else in Europe, it would be one of the larger more powerful European states. But being next to Russia has tended to turn it into a Russian satellite instead.
That's an interesting thought that I hadn't considered before. The Ukraine is, obviously, massive, but then again much of the country is just wheat fields (the flag is a clue). Having a look at the list of countries ranked by GDP on Wikipedia*, the Ukrainian economy appears to be slightly larger than Romania's (which I'd say isn't a powerful European state) but much smaller than Poland's. It seems to be a touch smaller than the Czech Republic's.
But perhaps had she not been in Moscow's sphere of influence, post-Communist economic growth would have been higher?
*Which can be found if you look for 'list of countries by GDP' on Wikipedia but which I can't link to at all because there are brackets in the title and SoF doesn't like those.
Posts: 3613 | From: London, England | Registered: Nov 2009
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Enoch
Shipmate
# 14322
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Grammatica:
Just thinking, no prophet, that you might want to get a look at Timothy Snyder's article in the NYRB (referenced in my post above). It does present a different, and to me credible, point of view....
I wasn't going to comment further on this until the article got referred to again. I don't know who Timothy Snyder is. I don't think he's all that well known over here. I'm sure he's an expert in the borderlands of eastern Europe, but I don't think his approach is either sound or helpful.
It doesn't enhance anyone's understanding of what's going on to talk of Russia and President Putin as though the phrase 'evil empire' is still skudding around just under the surface. I accept that the US has a direct, even if watery, frontier with Russia and we don't. All the same, each state pursues its own interests in foreign policy, and the Russian approach to the Ukraine makes perfectly sound sense without feeling one has to recreate the Iron Curtain, or attribute to its leaders an unusual malevolence.
Of course Russia wants a state well disposed to it immediately adjoining, particularly since until only a few years ago it was part of the USSR, and before that had been Russian for centuries. The US wants a favourably disposed Mexico and Canada. It would rather have a better disposed Cuba than the one it's got. If Scotland votes for independence, we'd like a favourably disposed Scotland, just as our relations with the Irish Republic and France are rather more important than, say, our relations with Italy, or for that matter, the Ukraine.
I'd imagine, but don't know, that most Ukrainians would prefer to live in a country which has good relations with all its neighbours. However, it's a big country. I suspect it's also one where many people have multiple identities. All of us would prefer to be 'well governed by our own kind' but if both those parameters don't appear to be on offer on the same plate, or in the context on offer, 'our own kind' is a multiple choice question, which one do we choose, how and why?
I don't think it helps either those inside or the rest of outside, to have experts pontificating from above in magazines as to what they think Ukrainians ought to want and why, or implying that some are good guys because their aspirations fit ours, and some are bad guys because theirs don't..
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Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson
Posts: 7610 | From: Bristol UK(was European Green Capital 2015, now Ljubljana) | Registered: Nov 2008
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deano
princess
# 12063
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Yes, I know it happens. The part I don't understand is what motivates them to do it in the first place.
What motivates anyone to seek public office?
It's the same motivation - at the beginning at least - that persuades someone to stand as a local councillor. Why? I guess there are many reasons from patriotism, to desire to help, to greed, to exercising power. Some good reasons and some not so good.
But in some people the motivation is more powerful and so they stand as MP's. For the same reasons, again some good some not so good.
And so on. In most western countries that motivation is a good thing and we have a good Government because of it. But the motivations are moderated by personal responsibility and contitutional checks and balances.
But in some people that motivation can be used to implement their own deformed and twisted principle and ideas. If personal responsibility is not there, and the checks and balances are absent, and the country is weak or divided, that person can find themselves in a position of power.
And the rest is history.
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"The moral high ground is slowly being bombed to oblivion. " - Supermatelot
Posts: 2118 | From: Chesterfield | Registered: Nov 2006
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Ricardus
Shipmate
# 8757
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Beeswax Altar:
Putin invaded Georgia. How much of pretext will he need to invade the Ukraine? .
Doesn't need to, he can just turn off the gas tap like in 2008 if he wants.
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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)
Posts: 7247 | From: Liverpool, UK | Registered: Nov 2004
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orfeo
Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by orfeo:
The extraordinary thing about Ukraine is that if it were anywhere else in Europe, it would be one of the larger more powerful European states. But being next to Russia has tended to turn it into a Russian satellite instead.
That's an interesting thought that I hadn't considered before. The Ukraine is, obviously, massive, but then again much of the country is just wheat fields (the flag is a clue). Having a look at the list of countries ranked by GDP on Wikipedia*, the Ukrainian economy appears to be slightly larger than Romania's (which I'd say isn't a powerful European state) but much smaller than Poland's. It seems to be a touch smaller than the Czech Republic's.
But perhaps had she not been in Moscow's sphere of influence, post-Communist economic growth would have been higher?
*Which can be found if you look for 'list of countries by GDP' on Wikipedia but which I can't link to at all because there are brackets in the title and SoF doesn't like those.
I was primarily thinking just in terms of geographic area (largest in Europe) and population (think it's about 5th highest).
And yes, a lot of agricultural land. Which is actually a pretty darn valuable resource, if you can make the most of it.
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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.
Posts: 18173 | From: Under | Registered: Jul 2008
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Grammatica
Shipmate
# 13248
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Enoch:
Of course Russia wants a state well disposed to it immediately adjoining, particularly since until only a few years ago it was part of the USSR, and before that had been Russian for centuries.
No one in the EU would want to deny that to Russia. What they do think is that it's not a zero-sum game. Ukraine can integrate with Europe and be favorably disposed to Russia.
And while Catherine the Great did bring the Crimea under Russian control, Ukraine has not been "Russian for centuries." The north / western part was formerly known as Galicia, and was under Polish, then Austrian government, for many more centuries than it has been under Russian control. The present borders of Ukraine are a post-World War II artifact.
Posts: 1058 | From: where the lemon trees blosson | Registered: Dec 2007
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orfeo
Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by pydseybare:
Another thing I heard, which I thought was interesting, is that the Russians have a lot of emotional investment in keeping Ukraine in-the-loop because for many Russians, Ukraine represents 'pure' Russia. 'Losing' the Crimea seems unthinkable to many Russians.
That sounds like Serbia and Kosovo all over again, Kosovo being the Serbian 'homeland' regardless of whether they actually live there now.
Or, dare I say it, the view that some 20th century Jews had of the land of Israel...
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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.
Posts: 18173 | From: Under | Registered: Jul 2008
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Honest Ron Bacardi
Shipmate
# 38
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by pydseybare:
Another thing I heard, which I thought was interesting, is that the Russians have a lot of emotional investment in keeping Ukraine in-the-loop because for many Russians, Ukraine represents 'pure' Russia. 'Losing' the Crimea seems unthinkable to many Russians.
(just going back to this for a moment)
You mean the Kievan Rus' era? It's quite a powerful narrative still I'm sure, but how it plays out on the ground is more problematic. The parts of Ukraine that are most Russian-oriented are in the south and east, and were not ever part of Kievan Rus'. The reason the east is more Russian (and speaks Russian) is mostly due to the mass influx of Russians to undertake mining in this area. Most of their relatives are probably still in Russia rather than other parts of Ukraine. And Yanukovych has reportedly been using the linguistic divide to keep this part of the country as his pro-Russian power base.
I have actually worked in this part of the contry (in Donetsk). The people were delightful, but the local bureaucracy was a nightmare. Stalinist to a man still so far as I could tell, apart from the woman who was dedicated to Lenin and had his framed pictures all over her office. At that time things were so dire that you couldn't buy a return ticket to Ukraine unless it was with a foreign airline flying into Kiev (and we weren't). We had to go and plead (unsuccessfully) with the local politicos to allow the state airline to sell us exit tickets. Eventually the people we were working for pulled strings higher up and the tickets were mysteriously available. But the staff and management equally regarded this sort of thing as predictably par for the course, though regrettable.
I also had a colleague simultaneously working in L'viv, and his comment was that it seemed more Polish there than anything else. But quite different.
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Anglo-Cthulhic
Posts: 4857 | From: the corridors of Pah! | Registered: May 2001
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LutheranChik
Shipmate
# 9826
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Posted
I find the neo-Nazi elements in this upheaval troubling. Why is it that fascism and anti-Semitism still hold such an attraction for so many people? (That is a lament, not a request for an explanation. I think fascism's appeal is to our lizard brains, and that some people have an inability/unwillingness to override their basest lower-brain impulses to tribalism, xenophobia and groupthink. Beause it's hard and involves rationality.)
[ 24. February 2014, 14:37: Message edited by: LutheranChik ]
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Simul iustus et peccator
http://www.lutheranchiklworddiary.blogspot.com
Posts: 6462 | From: rural Michigan, USA | Registered: Jul 2005
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Ricardus
Shipmate
# 8757
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Beeswax Altar:
Putin invaded Georgia. How much of pretext will he need to invade the Ukraine? .
Expanding a bit, I don't think Ukraine is comparable to Georgia. The West was never going to intervene in South Ossetia.
Morality aside, what (for the West) would a successful result in Georgia have looked like if we intervened? A return to the status quo, with South Ossetia as an unrecognised self-governing frozen conflict zone? Or full restoration of Georgian control over South Ossetia against the wishes of its inhabitants?
Conversely, if Putin decided to invade Ukraine, I don't think he can be certain that NATO wouldn't strike back.
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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)
Posts: 7247 | From: Liverpool, UK | Registered: Nov 2004
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by LutheranChik:
I find the neo-Nazi elements in this upheaval troubling. Why is it that fascism and anti-Semitism still hold such an attraction for so many people? (That is a lament, not a request for an explanation. I think fascism's appeal is to our lizard brains, and that some people have an inability/unwillingness to override their basest lower-brain impulses to tribalism, xenophobia and groupthink. Beause it's hard and involves rationality.)
I don't think fascism is all that irrational. It absorbs many things into a corporate state, so that things like trade unions and so on, are basically abolished.
Of course, it does also cause great opposition, so then you have to use violence; well, who doesn't?
Virtue without terror is powerless (Robespierre).
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
I don't like Putin, but, I saw his regime be constructive about chemical weapons disposal in Syria. Which leads me to think/hope, that he has more sense than to invade the Ukraine. That he might genuinely think a massive civil war is a bad thing. It is just that in other situations, like the Chinese government, he is always more likely to take a repressive stability over an unstable but possibly more representative future. I think he pours in resources to support the stability, but he won't waste them to try to restore a system that has already gone phut bang. He may have learned this from the Georgia situation.
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
I doubt very much that Putin would invade Ukraine; he is not such a big gambler. He also has other levers to pull, such as the gas supply, the presence of a powerful pro-Russian lobby in Ukraine, and a large debt which Ukraine owes to Russia (literally).
He might also fear the spread of the chaos to Russia itself, but he has a tighter grip than Yanukovych ever did.
Putin will abandon Y. without a thought; he will be already onto plan B (or C).
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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