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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: A misunderstood man?
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by SvitlanaV2: The problem some commentators note, though, is that immigrants themselves grow old and need care. They'll have fewer children, who will in any case become 'assimilated', thus becoming unwilling or unable do the jobs their parents did; so yet more immigrants will be needed.
Well, in the case of EU immigrants, they are generally here for shortish periods of time and then return to their home country, especially if they are doing low skilled work. So the above doesn't necessarily apply.
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Anglican't
Shipmate
# 15292
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Posted
If people become more anti-immigration during a recession, it doesn't follow that anyone has claimed that immigrants caused the recession, surely?
Also, I thought it was pretty much widely accepted that the vast majority of new jobs created in Britain in the 2000s actually went to immigrants? (Some estimates put the figure at over 90%.) While that's not exactly 'they're nicking our jobs' one can see how it might create some degree of resentment.
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
It is not a low profile claim.
My problem with current politics on all sides of the political spectrum is the idea that, people think such and such a thing (often because such and such a media outlet is pushing the idea) therefore we will respond as if it were true - regardless of whether we have evidence supporting said opinion. Politicians don't make meaningful arguments for their views anymore.
It is quite literally an example of one definition of bullshit - in that it is a concern over appearances that is indifferent to what reality may actually be. [ 26. May 2014, 22:51: Message edited by: Doublethink ]
-------------------- All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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Anglican't
Shipmate
# 15292
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Posted
The only relevant, direct quote in that article is this, by the Prime Minister:
quote: 'Remember what we started with in the UK: an economy built on the worst deficit, the most leveraged banks, the most indebted households, the biggest housing boom and unsustainable levels of public spending and immigration.'
While debate can be had as to whether large-scale, uncontrolled immigration is the problem or the solution, I struggle to make the leap from this quote to the claim that 'immigrants caused the recession'.
Posts: 3613 | From: London, England | Registered: Nov 2009
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
Especially as the UK is now emerging from recession, by most accounts. Does this mean then that immigration has slowed down, thus leading to a mild recovery? I don't think anybody believes that.
-------------------- I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Lucia
 Looking for light
# 15201
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Anglican't:
Also, I thought it was pretty much widely accepted that the vast majority of new jobs created in Britain in the 2000s actually went to immigrants? (Some estimates put the figure at over 90%.) While that's not exactly 'they're nicking our jobs' one can see how it might create some degree of resentment.
If this claim is true (and I'd like to see more concrete evidence before accepting it)the question still remains of why employers would choose to employ immigrants rather than UK born people. Surely everyone is free to apply for the jobs going? And you would have thought that having English as your first language would be an advantage. So is it that there is a shortage of the necessary skills amongst the UK born population? In which case we'd be in trouble without the immigrants. If it is because employers find they are better workers in some way then those who want to be in competition for these jobs need to up their game. If it is that these jobs don't pay enough to attract UK born people as it is not a living wage, that needs to be addressed through campaigning for better minimum wages and employment standards that must be adhered to by employers regardless of where their employees come from (surely this is already true?).
Anyway, the research briefing paper I linked to in my last post suggests that the evidence does not strongly support the claim that immigrant labour pushes wages down.
Posts: 1075 | From: Nigh golden stone and spires | Registered: Oct 2009
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Marvin the Martian
 Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
Unemployment in the UK is currently just over two million people.
We have had threads on this board in which posters who suggest that those people should go out and get jobs are shouted down on the grounds that there simply aren't enough jobs out there for them all.
And yet the same people saying there aren't enough jobs for all the unemployed people will then turn up on threads such as this one and say that we need more people of working age in the country.
One or other of those arguments must, logically, be false. Either there are plenty of jobs (in which case it's perfectly valid to question why so many people don't want to do them), or there aren't enough jobs (in which case bringing in more immigrants is just going to increase the number of unemployed people in the country).
Which is it?
-------------------- Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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quetzalcoatl
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# 16740
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Posted
Well, the farmer next door to me (anecdote coming up), just says that he employs East Europeans on the land, because the local English youths can't be arsed to bend their back picking the sugarbeet.
He also says that they prefer sitting in their bedroom playing X-box. Somehow, I doubt that, since you can't just draw unemployment pay these days, while sitting on your backside.
Still, it's a common opinion in Norfolk.
-------------------- I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
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Karl: Liberal Backslider
Shipmate
# 76
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Marvin the Martian: Unemployment in the UK is currently just over two million people.
We have had threads on this board in which posters who suggest that those people should go out and get jobs are shouted down on the grounds that there simply aren't enough jobs out there for them all.
And yet the same people saying there aren't enough jobs for all the unemployed people will then turn up on threads such as this one and say that we need more people of working age in the country.
One or other of those arguments must, logically, be false. Either there are plenty of jobs (in which case it's perfectly valid to question why so many people don't want to do them), or there aren't enough jobs (in which case bringing in more immigrants is just going to increase the number of unemployed people in the country).
Which is it?
This would be so, were there a fixed number of jobs in the economy. There are not; the larger the population, the more jobs there are in it. Inasmuch as immigration increases the population, it also increases the job pool.
-------------------- Might as well ask the bloody cat.
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Karl: Liberal Backslider
Shipmate
# 76
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by quetzalcoatl: Well, the farmer next door to me (anecdote coming up), just says that he employs East Europeans on the land, because the local English youths can't be arsed to bend their back picking the sugarbeet.
He also says that they prefer sitting in their bedroom playing X-box. Somehow, I doubt that, since you can't just draw unemployment pay these days, while sitting on your backside.
Still, it's a common opinion in Norfolk.
It's probably more a case that it's rather difficult to get to a field ten miles from the nearest bus route somewhere south of Sheringham at 6am, unless you've got a gangmaster filling up a transit van to drive out there.
-------------------- Might as well ask the bloody cat.
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Boogie
 Boogie on down!
# 13538
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Karl: Liberal Backslider: It's probably more a case that it's rather difficult to get to a field ten miles from the nearest bus route somewhere south of Sheringham at 6am, unless you've got a gangmaster filling up a transit van to drive out there.
Yes, like I said earlier, in Germany travel passes are often given by the employer. My son had them for all his low paid jobs for tram, bus and train, it's also much much more bike -friendly there. If we gave travel passes to the unemployed we'd be getting somewhere imo. People simply can't afford to travel to minimum wage jobs.
-------------------- Garden. Room. Walk
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Ethne Alba
Shipmate
# 5804
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Posted
Local observation: Since the weekend, various people seems to feel that they can be as openly verbally racist as they like. Last week this would not have been the case.
Is anyone else finding this?
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Karl: Liberal Backslider: quote: Originally posted by quetzalcoatl: Well, the farmer next door to me (anecdote coming up), just says that he employs East Europeans on the land, because the local English youths can't be arsed to bend their back picking the sugarbeet.
He also says that they prefer sitting in their bedroom playing X-box. Somehow, I doubt that, since you can't just draw unemployment pay these days, while sitting on your backside.
Still, it's a common opinion in Norfolk.
It's probably more a case that it's rather difficult to get to a field ten miles from the nearest bus route somewhere south of Sheringham at 6am, unless you've got a gangmaster filling up a transit van to drive out there.
But they've always used vans to bring labour in, as yes, there are no buses. 20 years ago, the field workers were all English. There is an argument that furriners accept lower wages, but I don't know about that. Presumably, they get the minimum wage, although you hear horror stories of lower wages.
-------------------- I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
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Karl: Liberal Backslider
Shipmate
# 76
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by quetzalcoatl: quote: Originally posted by Karl: Liberal Backslider: quote: Originally posted by quetzalcoatl: Well, the farmer next door to me (anecdote coming up), just says that he employs East Europeans on the land, because the local English youths can't be arsed to bend their back picking the sugarbeet.
He also says that they prefer sitting in their bedroom playing X-box. Somehow, I doubt that, since you can't just draw unemployment pay these days, while sitting on your backside.
Still, it's a common opinion in Norfolk.
It's probably more a case that it's rather difficult to get to a field ten miles from the nearest bus route somewhere south of Sheringham at 6am, unless you've got a gangmaster filling up a transit van to drive out there.
But they've always used vans to bring labour in, as yes, there are no buses. 20 years ago, the field workers were all English. There is an argument that furriners accept lower wages, but I don't know about that. Presumably, they get the minimum wage, although you hear horror stories of lower wages.
Thing is, the farmer can effectively outsource the entire operation, including the van, to the gangmaster.
-------------------- Might as well ask the bloody cat.
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
Karl
So you are saying that it's cheaper for the gangmaster to use foreign labour? Yes, maybe that's correct. Some of them are housed in horrible huts and cabins, which probably English guys would not tolerate. [ 27. May 2014, 11:11: Message edited by: quetzalcoatl ]
-------------------- I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
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Karl: Liberal Backslider
Shipmate
# 76
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by quetzalcoatl: Karl
So you are saying that it's cheaper for the gangmaster to use foreign labour? Yes, maybe that's correct. Some of them are housed in horrible huts and cabins, which probably English guys would not tolerate.
Nor would they if they'd known that was what was meant by "accommodation and transport provided" on the ad they answered back in their original country. In some cases, at any rate.
-------------------- Might as well ask the bloody cat.
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Matt Black
 Shipmate
# 2210
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Ethne Alba: Local observation: Since the weekend, various people seems to feel that they can be as openly verbally racist as they like. Last week this would not have been the case.
Is anyone else finding this?
Yes; not just racist but anti-gay and generally anti-liberal/ progressive. It seems that UKIP have tapped into quite a vein of feeling there....worryingly...
[ETA - just a snapshot of RL and online/ social media conversations.] [ 27. May 2014, 12:00: Message edited by: Matt Black ]
-------------------- "Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)
Posts: 14304 | From: Hampshire, UK | Registered: Jan 2002
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Karl: Liberal Backslider: quote: Originally posted by quetzalcoatl: Karl
So you are saying that it's cheaper for the gangmaster to use foreign labour? Yes, maybe that's correct. Some of them are housed in horrible huts and cabins, which probably English guys would not tolerate.
Nor would they if they'd known that was what was meant by "accommodation and transport provided" on the ad they answered back in their original country. In some cases, at any rate.
I was just thinking - low pay, shit conditions, no union membership, no holiday pay, no sick pay, instant dismissal - it's UKIP heaven, isn't it? O Brave New World.
-------------------- I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
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SvitlanaV2
Shipmate
# 16967
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by quetzalcoatl: quote: Originally posted by Karl: Liberal Backslider: quote: Originally posted by quetzalcoatl: Karl
So you are saying that it's cheaper for the gangmaster to use foreign labour? Yes, maybe that's correct. Some of them are housed in horrible huts and cabins, which probably English guys would not tolerate.
Nor would they if they'd known that was what was meant by "accommodation and transport provided" on the ad they answered back in their original country. In some cases, at any rate.
I was just thinking - low pay, shit conditions, no union membership, no holiday pay, no sick pay, instant dismissal - it's UKIP heaven, isn't it? O Brave New World.
Why would UKIP want that if it means high immigration?
Posts: 6668 | From: UK | Registered: Feb 2012
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by SvitlanaV2: quote: Originally posted by quetzalcoatl: quote: Originally posted by Karl: Liberal Backslider: quote: Originally posted by quetzalcoatl: Karl
So you are saying that it's cheaper for the gangmaster to use foreign labour? Yes, maybe that's correct. Some of them are housed in horrible huts and cabins, which probably English guys would not tolerate.
Nor would they if they'd known that was what was meant by "accommodation and transport provided" on the ad they answered back in their original country. In some cases, at any rate.
I was just thinking - low pay, shit conditions, no union membership, no holiday pay, no sick pay, instant dismissal - it's UKIP heaven, isn't it? O Brave New World.
Why would UKIP want that if it means high immigration?
I didn't mean that. I mean that low pay and poor conditions etc., is heaven for right-wing employers, whether for the English work force, or the foreign work-force.
-------------------- I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by SvitlanaV2: Why would UKIP want that if it means high immigration?
There is no necessary correlation between the two issues, and UKIP aren't normally hobbled by such trifling issues as consistency.
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Stetson
Shipmate
# 9597
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Posted
Doug Saunders argues that the far-right gains are less impressive than they seem at first glance.
Basically, once you sweep away the media hype, most Eurpeans rejected the far-right, no other parties will work with them, and some of the anti-Europe vote actually went to the left. Or so Saunders argues. [ 27. May 2014, 14:14: Message edited by: Stetson ]
Posts: 6574 | From: back and forth between bible belts | Registered: Jun 2005
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Doc Tor
Deepest Red
# 9748
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Stetson: Doug Saunders argues that the far-right gains are less impressive than they seem at first glance.
Basically, once you sweep away the media hype, most Eurpeans rejected the far-right, no other parties will work with them, and some of the anti-Europe vote actually went to the left. Or so Saunders argues.
The BBC coverage of the local elections was simply shameful, and little better for the European. The majority of Europe kept their heads, didn't swing to the far right, and indeed voted for pro-integration parties. If you want to consider the UK only, Eurosceptic parties gained only about half the vote on a low turnout. If you think that the Tories can renegotiate the terms of the treaties (not impossible) and recommend that we stay in, then there's a massive majority in favour of staying in the EU.
-------------------- Forward the New Republic
Posts: 9131 | From: Ultima Thule | Registered: Jul 2005
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Alan Cresswell
 Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Boogie: quote: Originally posted by Karl: Liberal Backslider: It's probably more a case that it's rather difficult to get to a field ten miles from the nearest bus route somewhere south of Sheringham at 6am, unless you've got a gangmaster filling up a transit van to drive out there.
Yes, like I said earlier, in Germany travel passes are often given by the employer. My son had them for all his low paid jobs for tram, bus and train, it's also much much more bike -friendly there. If we gave travel passes to the unemployed we'd be getting somewhere imo. People simply can't afford to travel to minimum wage jobs.
It does rather presuppose that there is a bus to use a travel pass on. Without any form of public transport a travel card is a worthless piece of paper.
-------------------- Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Doublethink: Also, what's the issue with suggesting people could be racist - the vast majority of the UK population were until at least the latter part of the twentieth century - its not like you could throw a switch and change the attitudes of centuries overnight.
(I am struggling to understand on what basis you describe yourself as liberal btw.)
Oh look, my lack of surprise is depressing me. But then, I have had a client who moved back to London on the grounds she wasn't willing to live in a place where a five year old child called her a nigger on a public street . And we have had to advise members of the public that referring to one of our staff members as a fucking black bitch is not acceptable.
-------------------- All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
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Alan Cresswell
 Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
Having just seen that reported in the morning news I was just coming here to add a link. I think it almost has to be the case that UKIP gained by tapping into that background of racism, they certainly tapped into the concerns over immigration that the same survey enumerates. I struggle to understand how people can hold racist views, in my mind it just defies all bases of rationalism and I can't get my mind to work in a sufficiently irrational way to understand, but such views are evidently there. We left our last church because of the lack of welcome offered to people who weren't like them - which was hidden when I first arrived because I was sufficiently like them, and I suspect I chose to ignore the signs over several years as others came and didn't get the welcome I'd been offered, the point where it became apparent was when a potential minister preached and people expressed dissatisfaction with his nationality and that his partner is black (the questions about his sexuality were not a surprise, as that's a hot issue in the church ... but I'd expected race to no longer be an issue).
-------------------- Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
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Karl: Liberal Backslider
Shipmate
# 76
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Alan Cresswell: quote: Originally posted by Boogie: quote: Originally posted by Karl: Liberal Backslider: It's probably more a case that it's rather difficult to get to a field ten miles from the nearest bus route somewhere south of Sheringham at 6am, unless you've got a gangmaster filling up a transit van to drive out there.
Yes, like I said earlier, in Germany travel passes are often given by the employer. My son had them for all his low paid jobs for tram, bus and train, it's also much much more bike -friendly there. If we gave travel passes to the unemployed we'd be getting somewhere imo. People simply can't afford to travel to minimum wage jobs.
It does rather presuppose that there is a bus to use a travel pass on. Without any form of public transport a travel card is a worthless piece of paper.
And since since Thatcher we've been labouring under the misapprehension that the primary purpose of running a bus company is to make money, rather than to provide public transport, most often there isn't one.
-------------------- Might as well ask the bloody cat.
Posts: 17938 | From: Chesterfield | Registered: May 2001
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Matt Black
 Shipmate
# 2210
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Posted
The BBC report certainly made depressing news to me too. I think that the issue though is perhaps more nuanced than that: I suspect that people who voted UKIP are more concerned about the (perceived) scale of immigration and (perceived) lack of integration (which, although discrete, are perhaps linked) than they are about the fact of immigration or indeed the race of the immigrants.
-------------------- "Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)
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betjemaniac
Shipmate
# 17618
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Karl: Liberal Backslider: quote: Originally posted by Alan Cresswell: quote: Originally posted by Boogie: quote: Originally posted by Karl: Liberal Backslider: It's probably more a case that it's rather difficult to get to a field ten miles from the nearest bus route somewhere south of Sheringham at 6am, unless you've got a gangmaster filling up a transit van to drive out there.
Yes, like I said earlier, in Germany travel passes are often given by the employer. My son had them for all his low paid jobs for tram, bus and train, it's also much much more bike -friendly there. If we gave travel passes to the unemployed we'd be getting somewhere imo. People simply can't afford to travel to minimum wage jobs.
It does rather presuppose that there is a bus to use a travel pass on. Without any form of public transport a travel card is a worthless piece of paper.
And since since Thatcher we've been labouring under the misapprehension that the primary purpose of running a bus company is to make money, rather than to provide public transport, most often there isn't one.
Goes back a wee bit further than that - I refer you to the Reshaping of Britain's Railways (1963); otherwise known around the bazaars as the Beeching Axe.
This was a bit like having a tripartite secondary school system, but never really building the third leg (technical schools).
Concomitant to the line closures was an assumption (on Beeching's part)/promise (on the government's) that all services on all closed lines would be replaced with bus routes.
Which didn't happen.
Even though buses were nationalised at the time.
Hence, whole areas which had rail links suddenly had no links (except private cars).
And the majority of closures happened through 1964, which makes the aftermath (and failure to do anything about it) Harold Wilson's fault. But then he closed more coal mines than Thatcher too....
-------------------- And is it true? For if it is....
Posts: 1481 | From: behind the dreaming spires | Registered: Mar 2013
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betjemaniac
Shipmate
# 17618
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by betjemaniac: quote: Originally posted by Karl: Liberal Backslider: quote: Originally posted by Alan Cresswell: quote: Originally posted by Boogie: quote: Originally posted by Karl: Liberal Backslider: It's probably more a case that it's rather difficult to get to a field ten miles from the nearest bus route somewhere south of Sheringham at 6am, unless you've got a gangmaster filling up a transit van to drive out there.
Yes, like I said earlier, in Germany travel passes are often given by the employer. My son had them for all his low paid jobs for tram, bus and train, it's also much much more bike -friendly there. If we gave travel passes to the unemployed we'd be getting somewhere imo. People simply can't afford to travel to minimum wage jobs.
It does rather presuppose that there is a bus to use a travel pass on. Without any form of public transport a travel card is a worthless piece of paper.
And since since Thatcher we've been labouring under the misapprehension that the primary purpose of running a bus company is to make money, rather than to provide public transport, most often there isn't one.
Goes back a wee bit further than that - I refer you to the Reshaping of Britain's Railways (1963); otherwise known around the bazaars as the Beeching Axe.
This was a bit like having a tripartite secondary school system, but never really building the third leg (technical schools).
Concomitant to the line closures was an assumption (on Beeching's part)/promise (on the government's) that all services on all closed lines would be replaced with bus routes.
Which didn't happen.
Even though buses were nationalised at the time.
Hence, whole areas which had rail links suddenly had no links (except private cars).
And the majority of closures happened through 1964, which makes the aftermath (and failure to do anything about it) Harold Wilson's fault. But then he closed more coal mines than Thatcher too....
sorry, to clarify, 1964 saw the most closures, 1964 to about 1969 (Waverley Route) saw the majority of closures not 1964 by itself.
-------------------- And is it true? For if it is....
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Alan Cresswell
 Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Matt Black: I suspect that people who voted UKIP are more concerned about the (perceived) scale of immigration and (perceived) lack of integration (which, although discrete, are perhaps linked) than they are about the fact of immigration or indeed the race of the immigrants.
I think perceptions are very important. The problem is how to dispel perceptions which are not actually based on reality? It's not something the government can easily do, especially not at the moment. A government statement with related research showing that immigrants are not displacing UK born workers (for example) would simply be dismissed as the government trying to knock UKIP back to shore up votes prior to the general election. It could, for that reason, be counter productive and actually increase the perception that "immigrants are nicking our jobs".
I note some of the comments on the BBC article when I read it this morning were pretty much along those lines - the BBC reporting this now as a reaction to UKIP gains in the EP elections, part of the establishment trying to suppress support for a party that threatens the main line parties.
-------------------- Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Doc Tor
Deepest Red
# 9748
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Posted
If the government had acted properly on the architects of the economic collapse, who have largely got away scot-free with all our money and are still able to pay themselves vast wealth they've neither earned or created, then I don't think we'd be having this conversation.
-------------------- Forward the New Republic
Posts: 9131 | From: Ultima Thule | Registered: Jul 2005
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Marvin the Martian
 Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Doublethink: Oh look, my lack of surprise is depressing me.
Interesting observation about the survey in question - it doesn't have any indication of the ethnic breakdown of the respondents. Quite a glaring omission, I'd have said!
I point this out because here in the West Midlands, apparently the worst area for racism in the country, there is a not-insignificant amount of tension between the Asian (Pakistani/Indian rather than Chinese/Japanese) and Carribbean communities. I've heard some really nasty stuff being said by people from each of those communities about the other, and it wouldn't surprise me if that was responsible for a reasonable amount of the reported prejudice.
-------------------- Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Doc Tor: If the government had acted properly on the architects of the economic collapse, who have largely got away scot-free with all our money and are still able to pay themselves vast wealth they've neither earned or created, then I don't think we'd be having this conversation.
It's classic scape-goating. It's not the responsibility of the financiers and bankers who ran up their huge gambling debts (which we have to pay), but the immigrants and the poor!
-------------------- I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Marvin the Martian: quote: Originally posted by Doublethink: Oh look, my lack of surprise is depressing me.
Interesting observation about the survey in question - it doesn't have any indication of the ethnic breakdown of the respondents. Quite a glaring omission, I'd have said!
I point this out because here in the West Midlands, apparently the worst area for racism in the country, there is a not-insignificant amount of tension between the Asian (Pakistani/Indian rather than Chinese/Japanese) and Carribbean communities. I've heard some really nasty stuff being said by people from each of those communities about the other, and it wouldn't surprise me if that was responsible for a reasonable amount of the reported prejudice.
I agree it would be an issue, and probably one of the reasons for the support of UKIP by some people with an ethnic minority background.
-------------------- All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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M.
Ship's Spare Part
# 3291
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Posted
Originally posted by Doublethink: quote: Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote: Originally posted by Doublethink: Oh look, my lack of surprise is depressing me. Interesting observation about the survey in question - it doesn't have any indication of the ethnic breakdown of the respondents. Quite a glaring omission, I'd have said!
I point this out because here in the West Midlands, apparently the worst area for racism in the country, there is a not-insignificant amount of tension between the Asian (Pakistani/Indian rather than Chinese/Japanese) and Carribbean communities. I've heard some really nasty stuff being said by people from each of those communities about the other, and it wouldn't surprise me if that was responsible for a reasonable amount of the reported prejudice.
I agree it would be an issue, and probably one of the reasons for the support of UKIP by some people with an ethnic minority background.
I half-heard this being discussed with (I think) one of the authors of the report this morning on Radio 4 (as I was getting ready for work) and I think the researcher said that it was indeed the same story among all ethnicities.
M.
Posts: 2303 | From: Lurking in Surrey | Registered: Sep 2002
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Matt Black
 Shipmate
# 2210
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Posted
Usage of words such as 'swamped', 'tide', etc when referring to immigration in the media does not of course help public perception. Nevertheless, the perceived problem seems to be less of "they're nicking our jobs" (although that is certainly there) and more of Britain being somehow 'changed' by the level of immigration plus (apparent) lack of integration by the new arrivals - what Trevor Phillips some years ago characterised as 'colonisation'.
-------------------- "Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)
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Justinian
Shipmate
# 5357
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Stetson: Rupert Myers, a Guardian writer who seems to have have been somehow involved with left-of-centre campaigns in the election(though it's not clear in what capacity), argues that racism is of comparitively minor importance among the reasons for UKIP's electoral appeal.
He also makes the related observation that the UKIP's lack of support in London is not because London is more tolerant, but because it is more affluent.
Anyone arguing that UKIP lacks support in London and puts that as straight up a consequence of London being special does not know what they are talking about. In the local elections UKIP managed a dozen seats in London (Seven in Havering, three in Bexley, two in Bromley). By the standards of major cities this makes London a bastion of UKIP support. Between Manchester, Liverpool, Preston, Newcastle, Sunderland, Gateshead, Birmingham, Coventry, Wolverhampton, Leeds, and Hull UKIP managed a grand total of two seats. (In Sheffield they managed three).
Mysteriously it's the people living furthest from high density populations, and in the regions with fewest immigrants that are most likely to vote UKIP.
-------------------- My real name consists of just four letters, but in billions of combinations.
Eudaimonaic Laughter - my blog.
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Justinian:
Mysteriously it's the people living furthest from high density populations, and in the regions with fewest immigrants that are most likely to vote UKIP.
Well, this kind of gibes well with the observation that a large percentage of UKIP *voters* as opposed to candidates, are former Tories over the age of 40. It's the classic squeezed middle, who are relatively okay economically but who fear their future after the economic squeeze of the last few years.
So the it's the fear of change rather than necessarily the reality of change that drives them. This is also probably why they put the EU as way down their agenda (compared to the NHS etc).
Given that this runs counter to the euro-obsessive and glibertarian tendency in UKIPs rank and file, it's no wonder that Farage makes up policy on the fly.
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Saul the Apostle
Shipmate
# 13808
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Posted
One thought has also crossed my mind, is the UKIP avalanche in the Euro elections a flash in the pan or a genuine shift in the British political landscape?
Personally, I can't work this out.
I am old enough to remember the ''gang of four'' (Shirley williams etc. ) in the 1980s. Much of the hubris does tend to die out after a while; I really don't know with UKIP and Nigel Farage.
What we do know is Farage has handed over much of the work to trusted deputies, so we'll see less of Nigel on our screens and more from his henchmen.
Saul
-------------------- "I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest."
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Matt Black
 Shipmate
# 2210
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Posted
..who will hopefully bog it up.
I think it is a 'surge' rather than a permanent fixture. I remember the SDP too and also the Greens doing very well in the Euro elections I the last decade only to fall back again (that said, they now have a Westminster MP).
-------------------- "Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)
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Alan Cresswell
 Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
One feature of fringe (especially mostly single policy) parties is that if they do well in elections then the major parties take notice. Significant electoral success in local and European elections, and a good share of the vote for a general election, says that a lot of people are sufficiently concerned about a particular issue to vote for someone who is very unlikely to actually represent them (a so-called "wasted vote" ). When that happened for the Greens the major parties started to include elements of the Green manisfesto into their own manifestos, the electorate could then put a cross next to a party that at least said it was going to enact environmentally friendly policies and also had a good chance of being in a position to actually do something.
Labour and the Tories are already falling over themselves to be seen as "tough on immigration", suggestions of an in/out referendum on Europe are also a similar effect of UKIP success. The election has shown that these are important issues for a large proportion of the electorate (maybe not the most important), and the major parties want to be seen to be listening to the voters. There will now be a flurry of opinion polls so that Labour and Conservative party bean counters can work out whether they will see a net gain or loss of votes (or, more importantly, seats in Westminster as they look at the demographics of key marginals) if they actively adopt central parts of the UKIP manifesto.
-------------------- Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
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Marvin the Martian
 Interplanetary
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Saul the Apostle: One thought has also crossed my mind, is the UKIP avalanche in the Euro elections a flash in the pan or a genuine shift in the British political landscape?
They came second in the last round of Euro elections back in 2009, so it's not quite a flash in the pan. But that success didn't translate into a single seat in Westminster in 2010, and I don't expect them to do much better in 2015.
-------------------- Hail Gallaxhar
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
But a 15% vote for UKIP in marginal seats could have quite an impact; and I don't think it is predictable. At first, the predictions were that Tory votes would be lost, but maybe also Labour votes, with the LibDems crushed. So maybe it has become a lot more unpredictable.
-------------------- I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
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Matt Black
 Shipmate
# 2210
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Posted
Has anyone got a handy graphic as to how it might pan out if the results were repeated at a General Election?
-------------------- "Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
Like this ?
-------------------- All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
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Marvin the Martian
 Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Matt Black: Has anyone got a handy graphic as to how it might pan out if the results were repeated at a General Election?
I don't have it to hand, but I recall reading an article that suggested it would translate to a very small (1 or 2 seats) Labour majority. As far as mid-term elections go, that's probably better news for the Conservatives than it is for Labour...
-------------------- Hail Gallaxhar
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Matt Black
 Shipmate
# 2210
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Doublethink: Like this ?
Er...no, but entertaining nevertheless!
-------------------- "Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)
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Saul the Apostle
Shipmate
# 13808
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Posted
quote: Originally posted by Matt Black: Has anyone got a handy graphic as to how it might pan out if the results were repeated at a General Election?
Well,
this might help Matt Black
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
The probability is a Labour majority in 2015 - but as they say a week is a long time in politics and well, a year, is an eternity away
Saul
-------------------- "I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest."
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