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Source: (consider it) Thread: Shake it all about: Brexit thread II
alienfromzog

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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
The best the UK can hope for is to kick the transition can down the road to the point where the default becomes a soft Brexit/EFTA style arrangement and/or hopes for a wildcard that throws everything into play

I can't see this happening, because I can't see a scenario in which the EU-27 would be willing to allow that without requiring the UK to submit to the ECJ in the meantime, and my perception is that that is as unacceptable politically for the UK as fully unwinding Brexit is unrealisable.
This is true but.

It's true that ECJ jurisdiction is a sticking point for the headbangers. However the wording of the first stage agreement defaults to that in the absence of any properly agreed system that protects the inter-Ireland border. Which is impossible.

Thus I think a soft, soft Brexit is likely. I think the headbangers will thus collapse the government...

AFZ

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Boogie

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quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
I think a soft, soft Brexit is likely. I think the headbangers will thus collapse the government...

Yes they will. The question is - when?

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quetzalcoatl
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I assume that business leaders and others have been absolutely shouting at the government (behind closed doors), that a hard Brexit, or a no deal Brexit, would be catastrophic for various companies, and could lead to bankruptcies, loss of jobs, and so on.

Presumably, Hammond is articulating this point of view, which is of course, opposed by the nutters. May is trying to balance between them, and has opposed the single market, but surely she can see that a hard Brexit could be ruinous?

I suppose she might try to slip a softish Brexit through under false colours somehow.

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
I assume that business leaders and others have been absolutely shouting at the government (behind closed doors), that a hard Brexit, or a no deal Brexit, would be catastrophic for various companies, and could lead to bankruptcies, loss of jobs, and so on.

Possibly, though I suspect not. Most of the largest businesses are fairly mobile, and many of the ones that aren't are running bits of the state for the government - and are probably resigned to keeping a Tory government for as long as possible.
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Alan Cresswell

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Doing work for the government isn't a very secure basis for big business. Carillion has collapsed. Capita is in trouble ...

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Anglican't
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quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
Mr Corbyn isn't exactly known as an enthusiastic supporter of the EU, though.

My impression is that he supports the EU insofar as it helps achieve the things he finds important (e.g. workers' rights), and is sceptical towards the EU insofar as it impedes them (e.g. state aid rules). Which is IMV a perfectly respectable position to hold - but not one that would encourage you to play some secret Machiavellian long game to keep Britain in the EU.

Well, quite. As a member of the Benn-ite left who doesn't appear to have changed his political views on anything in the last 40 years, it's unclear to me why he would come to the Remain cause's rescue now. And if he did passionately believe in EU membership, why did his office do so much to sabotage the Labour Remain campaign during the referendum?
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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
And if he did passionately believe in EU membership, why did his office do so much to sabotage the Labour Remain campaign during the referendum?

Like what? Outside the imaginations of the pages of the Spectator, that is.
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Anglican't
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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
And if he did passionately believe in EU membership, why did his office do so much to sabotage the Labour Remain campaign during the referendum?

Like what? Outside the imaginations of the pages of the Spectator, that is.
There's a whole chapter about Corbyn in Tim Shipman's excellent All Out War which I'm afraid I don't have immediately to hand. From memory there was a bizarre refusal to properly work with the Labour Remain campaign, co-ordinate with them, or even give more than half-hearted endorsement of EU membership. (The book itself is well worth a read.)
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Sioni Sais
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FWIW neither of the major two parties' 'Remain' campaigns were conducted with much enthusiasm, and that's why we are in the mess we are now. UKIP was passionately for leaving, the LibDems for staying but while the official policy of the Tory Party and the Labour Party (and Parliament as a whole) was to stay, the Remain campaign was a shambles.

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Anglican't
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quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
the official policy of the Tory Party and the Labour Party (and Parliament as a whole) was to stay, the Remain campaign was a shambles.

While the government's position was for Remain, the Conservative Party's position was technically neutral. Arguably a minor pedantic point, but in terms of campaigning it meant that Remain didn't have automatic access to all of the governing party's resources.
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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
From memory there was a bizarre refusal to properly work with the Labour Remain campaign, co-ordinate with them, or even give more than half-hearted endorsement of EU membership. (The book itself is well worth a read.)

You mean the specific accusation that he refused to put in a particular line that they wanted to dictate ? (which it turned out he had used - including in his speech the day before the referendum). Shipman is an amusing writer - but his books are rather like the Pravda. To find the truth you have to read through the interalia - and in this case this tells you less about Corbyn and rather more about the party members who saw the referendum as a chance to dislodging him.

As SS points out, both the parties had fairly lacklustre politicians, and it's indicative of ones prejudices to criticise the political leader who was rather more active than others on the Remain side - including those on the front bench of the government at the time. What can be said is that Corbyn and his team are instinctively against the grid-politics style of the Blair/Cameron governments and that this sometimes reveals itself in odd acts of incompetency (releasing things after press deadlines and so on - though this seems thankfully to have been mostly fixed)

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quetzalcoatl
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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
I assume that business leaders and others have been absolutely shouting at the government (behind closed doors), that a hard Brexit, or a no deal Brexit, would be catastrophic for various companies, and could lead to bankruptcies, loss of jobs, and so on.

Possibly, though I suspect not. Most of the largest businesses are fairly mobile, and many of the ones that aren't are running bits of the state for the government - and are probably resigned to keeping a Tory government for as long as possible.
I thought that some companies, in car-making, pharma, aviation, are worried about non-tariff barriers, and under a hard Brexit, these would be worse.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/no-deal-brexit-uk-car-industry-ford-vehicles-eu-leave-european-union-a8082321 .html

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:

I thought that some companies, in car-making, pharma, aviation, are worried about non-tariff barriers, and under a hard Brexit, these would be worse.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/no-deal-brexit-uk-car-industry-ford-vehicles-eu-leave-european-union-a8082321 .html

Sure, I wasn't suggesting companies aren't going to be affected. The thing is this is a bit of a moving target. Certainly there are some companies where mobility isn't an option (airlines with flights between the rEU and the UK) - OTOH some businesses have already sunk time and money in planning to move abroad and/or accelerated plans to move abroad. The companies most worried about non-tariff barriers are less mobile, but they tend to be in the minority.

You can see this kind of thinking in parts of finance, having resigned themselves to Brexit in some form, they'd prefer the UK to be out of any kind regime of regulatory alignment with the EU because it gives them an offshore outpost near the EU whose legislation they can easily influence [even while they move some of their operations to places like Frankfurt]. This isn't necessarily the boon to the rest of us that people like JRM portray it as - but then he's pro-rentier so that's not a surprise.

[ 01. February 2018, 11:15: Message edited by: chris stiles ]

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Rocinante
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Oh, as you were:

Brexit: Theresa May to fight EU transition residency plan

The only way she can get that is to have no transition period, so it's Hard Brexit again..

On previous evidence, the Brexiteers will huff and puff for a while, then cave in, blaming EU intransigence. The announcement seems to be playing well with its intended audience, the Tory headbangers.

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Barnabas62
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The cave in will come later. Quietly, possibly with some smoke and mirrors.

The Irish Border will re-emerge as an insoluble problem.

If we are lucky, we'll get the Norway solution, by transitional stealth, and 'considered reappraisal'.

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quetzalcoatl
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Barnier saying that trade barriers are unavoidable, once you leave customs union and single market. This is by definition really. I suppose the idea of frictionless trade is a kind of magical solution then. The other issue is Ireland, where a hard border becomes inevitable.

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mr cheesy
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I'm now going to show my ignorance, but I genuinely don't understand how Brexit is going to work.

Some Brexiteers say that products are going to get cheaper. OK, so maybe that's true. Maybe we can get rid of the EU redtape and we can import things without tariffs from cheaper places like China and India. Maybe some of this stuff is going to be things that we would otherwise produce expensively in the UK and EU. Maybe there will be no need to have expensive farms and factories, we can instead get the same things produced more cheaply elsewhere.

Ok. So that's fine... provided that we are a wealthy consumer society, everyone else will want to trade with us, if we've got money to throw around.

But surely we only have money to throw around if we have something to sell back to the rest of the world. So what is that? Currently it is said to be financial services - but how much of our current economy is based on being able to access the EU? If we can't get a Brexit deal which at least gives access to financial services, what have we got to sell?

And then there are all the other social problems. Let's suppose somehow, by magic, we retain our financial services role. What is going to replace all the jobs in agriculture and manufacturing that are lost when it becomes pointless to compete with cheap imports? Is the idea that somehow these jobs will be replaced with jobs in the import industries?

Or maybe the idea is to become some kind of massive tax haven. If we make it cheaper to operate businesses here, then maybe the idea is that it'd be ridiculous for any bank or financial institution to be based anywhere else. Maybe we can stick two fingers up at the EU and there is nothing they can do about it as we reduce corporation taxes and give out financial bungs and grants.

What else could be the plan?

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arse

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Alan Cresswell

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There is no plan. The government is making it up as they go along.

I terms of trade there are unsubstantiated claims that the UK can negotiate better trade deals on our own than can be negotiated by the EU. The best I can see is that the UK can prioritise trade deals with nations that are lower down the list of the EU as a whole ... though (almost by definition) larger markets would be high on the list of nations the EU would like to improve trade with that would need the UK to focus on trade deals with small nations under the EU radar. The EU will soon enough need to try and get trade deals with India and China, just because those are such large markets.

There is also talk of "frictionless trade" with the EU. Which, of course, we already have within the customs union. I can't see how that would be possible without establishing something that is effectively identical to the customs union and single market with all that entails - common standards and role of ECJ in resolving disputes.

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mr cheesy
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I suppose the thinking is that negotiating with the EU is difficult because they have lots of conditions to protect the internal market and production. Presumably there are a range of things that China could produce and export to the EU that the EU doesn't want because it'd affect particular producers. Most obviously certain foods could presumably be produced cheaply elsewhere but are restricted from entering the market.

Also there must be some idea of give-and-take. A trade deal between the EU and (say) China is tricky because the EU wants to ensure it can sell into the Chinese market in the same way that the Chinese producers can sell into the EU.

I am not a political economist, but presumably a UK-China deal would be easier if it was more about one-way traffic for goods into the UK and if the British government wasn't bothered about protecting most sectors of the economy from the imports.

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arse

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Alan Cresswell

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:

I am not a political economist, but presumably a UK-China deal would be easier if it was more about one-way traffic for goods into the UK and if the British government wasn't bothered about protecting most sectors of the economy from the imports.

But, the BoJos of the Tory Party are talking about trade deals which are good for Britain. So, those deals would need to emphasise export from the UK to China and protecting UK business against Chinese competition. Exactly the same concerns EU negotiators would have, except the EU negotiators would be backed up by offering access to a very large market, whereas the UK could only offer an impoverished little bit of land off the NW coast of a large market.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

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mr cheesy
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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
But, the BoJos of the Tory Party are talking about trade deals which are good for Britain. So, those deals would need to emphasise export from the UK to China and protecting UK business against Chinese competition. Exactly the same concerns EU negotiators would have, except the EU negotiators would be backed up by offering access to a very large market, whereas the UK could only offer an impoverished little bit of land off the NW coast of a large market.

I'm genuinely not sure that Johnson and the others are talking about British exports to China. I'm not even totally sure they're talking about British exports to the EU. They seem to me to believe that EU producers want an open border into the UK and that it doesn't really matter if the border is open in the other direction.

A "great trade deal" seems to me to be solely about EU products continuing to enter the UK - and once here hopefully competing with products from China and elsewhere.

They seem unbothered about the rules of the common market because they seem to think that British exports are basically not very important anyway. If our export products don't meet EU standards, no Biggie, we just stop exporting that product to the EU. If EU producers want to try competing in our market with all the weight of tape and pointless rules, let them try.

In this model, it appears that the Brexiteers believe that everyone wants to access our consumer market. The Irish border doesn't matter because we will keep it open (so the Irish don't moan), if necessary we will keep alignment in a few areas like agriculture to keep everyone happy. According to this model, British production doesn't matter (and probably by extension Irish production doesn't matter either) so cross-border trade is going in time to be of imported consumer products and local production will inevitably dieoff - and if the EU wants to waste their time trying to prevent third party country products reaching the rest of the EU via NI, that's their problem.

Of course this is delusional and not how the EU works.

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arse

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Sioni Sais
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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
There is no plan. The government is making it up as they go along.

I terms of trade there are unsubstantiated claims that the UK can negotiate better trade deals on our own than can be negotiated by the EU. The best I can see is that the UK can prioritise trade deals with nations that are lower down the list of the EU as a whole ... though (almost by definition) larger markets would be high on the list of nations the EU would like to improve trade with that would need the UK to focus on trade deals with small nations under the EU radar. The EU will soon enough need to try and get trade deals with India and China, just because those are such large markets.

There is also talk of "frictionless trade" with the EU. Which, of course, we already have within the customs union. I can't see how that would be possible without establishing something that is effectively identical to the customs union and single market with all that entails - common standards and role of ECJ in resolving disputes.

You have been reading Liam Fox's in tray. These wonderful trade deals are pipe dreams. They will have to be negotiated separately and sequentially because no country will want its deal undercut by another deal that is being negotiated at the same time. It will therefore take a lifetime to get as many trade deals as we have through the EU.

As for "frictionless" trade, that's a synonym for "going downhill fast".

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Rocinante
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Predictions of post-Brexit prosperity all seem to boil down to cheap imports. Patrick Minford draws a parallel with the abolition of the corn laws in the 1840's, which lowered the price of food and - he asserts - enabled the industrial revolution.

The fault with this, ISTM, is that (a) the industrial revolution was well under way by the 1840's, and (b) we have no comparable industrial base today. Even Minford admits that hard Brexit will probably doom what's left of our manufacturing, and large swathes of our agriculture. Combined with the probable loss of much of our financial services business, it is unclear to me how we will earn the money to pay for even cheap imports outside the EU.

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Alan Cresswell

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The thing that seems to be forgotten is that the whole of British trade 100 years ago was based on cheap imports of raw materials, feeding an industrial base making products for domestic use and export. Mostly relying on the Empire for exploitation of raw materials and buying manufactured goods.

Which is now irrelevant as we have no colonies to exploit and no manufacturing base.

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
The thing that seems to be forgotten is that the whole of British trade 100 years ago was based on cheap imports of raw materials, feeding an industrial base making products for domestic use and export. Mostly relying on the Empire for exploitation of raw materials and buying manufactured goods.

.. and driven by a very strong system of Imperial preference.
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quetzalcoatl
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Everybody has been complaining about the lack of information coming from the govt about Brexit. But surely this is because of one thing - that the Tories are split, and Mrs May is trying to ride two horses at once. She is trying to reconcile the hard-liners, who either want no deal or a hard Brexit, and the soft Brexit people.

Of course, she will never admit to this, as far as I can see, but waffles on about getting the best deal. But her aim is to hold the Tory party together, and remain in power. That is the priority, isn't it?

Hence, if there are negative predictions about Brexit, they have to be ignored or denied. We are now at war with Eastasia.

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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Crœsos
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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Hence, if there are negative predictions about Brexit, they have to be ignored or denied. We are now at war with Eastasia.

We have always been at war with Eastasia. [Big Grin]

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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RdrEmCofE
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I am not an economist, obviously, I am just a consumer. My experience recently was buying a pair of door handles from B&Q which fell apart before I even installed them. I got refunded. The B&Q product was made in China. I replaced the door handles with an identical styled pair manufactured in the UK at only 20% more expense. How is it that B&Q can import substandard Chinese reproductions under current EU regulations. Does this mean we will have even more defective counterfeit goods from China after bWreck-Zit actually happens?

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Love covers many sins. 1 Pet.4:8. God was in Christ, reconciling the world to himself, not holding their sins against them; 2 Cor.5:19

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Alan Cresswell

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There aren't EU regulations governing everything. General regs re: safety and environmental protection - but, probably no regulations governing door-nob quality.

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Sioni Sais
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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
There aren't EU regulations governing everything. General regs re: safety and environmental protection - but, probably no regulations governing door-nob quality.

There may however be EU directives specifying refunds and replacements for faulty goods, so you might lose that instead.

Information about food is mostly from EU directives, so we could lose a lot of food safety information, which I'm sure everyone appreciates except grocers of all sizes.

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Callan
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quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
FWIW neither of the major two parties' 'Remain' campaigns were conducted with much enthusiasm, and that's why we are in the mess we are now. UKIP was passionately for leaving, the LibDems for staying but while the official policy of the Tory Party and the Labour Party (and Parliament as a whole) was to stay, the Remain campaign was a shambles.

AIUI, Corbyn's attitude to the EU was basically "meh". Most of his life he was against it. Varoufakis, persuaded him to be for it, but without much enthusiasm and allowing him to be reconciled to the result. I suspect that if public opinion turns Corbyn will turn but he won't do anything to make that happen.

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quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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Rather pathetic speech by Boris yesterday, with the usual tricks, a bit of Latin, a few rude bits, some long words, and loads of Panglossian cheer-leading. But as many are commenting, very short on detail about Brexit. It's like some honeymoons, it's going to be wonderful, but I'm not sure what's going to happen yet.

He reminds me now of Osborne's play, The Entertainer, made famous by Olivier, a kind of sad old actor, going through the old routines.

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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.

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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

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Take back control eh? Not of your railways:
quote:
The central promise of those who wanted Britain to leave the European Union was to return full economic, political and legal sovereignty: a dubious premise in a post-European Union Britain whose employees and managers, public and private alike, are delivered to their jobs by RATP and Deutsche Bahn.


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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl: Rather pathetic speech by Boris yesterday, with the usual tricks, a bit of Latin, a few rude bits, some long words, and loads of Panglossian cheer-leading. But as many are commenting, very short on detail about Brexit. It's like some honeymoons, it's going to be wonderful, but I'm not sure what's going to happen yet.

Boris' whole schtick seemed to be a call to Remainers to consider the benefits of leaving the EU.

Which is all very well, if anyone could actually tell us what they were. Apparently the main benefit is that we can negotiate our own trade deals and control our borders.

But we don't have any trade deals. And if we close borders then (a) Ireland is screwed and (b) the industries where there are labour shortages are screwed.

So he's basically asking us to believe things are going to be aOK after Brexit despite proving zero idea how it could possibly be so. A made up number about the NHS and a bunch of trade deals we don't have whilst royally pissing off our biggest market and closest neighbours.

Yeah, sounds great Boris.

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arse

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Rather pathetic speech by Boris yesterday, with the usual tricks, a bit of Latin, a few rude bits, some long words, and loads of Panglossian cheer-leading.

Played to a carefully selected audience of about 20. It was reminiscent of the various times I heard someone over-educated and superficially bright, who has no idea how to address the issue, reinterpret the issue to be the one they actually want to talk about.
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Eutychus
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# 3081

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When are nostalgic Remainer/second referendum/undo Brexit types going to notice that the UK won't have any MEPs after 2019?

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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Rocinante
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# 18541

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Well we won't be in the EU, so of course we won't have any MEP's [Confused]

At least us nostalgic Remoaners are facing up to reality. Davis is STILL flogging circular unioorn cakes with corners that are never gone however much you eat:

David Davis rejects Mad Max style dystopia claims

Apparently we're going to have frictionless trade and recognise each others' standards. Cars made in Austria will need only a quick check to be sold anywhere in the EU.

"Such mutual recognition will naturally require close, even-handed co-operation between these authorities and a common set of principles to guide them."

So that would be what we have now, then.

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Eutychus
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# 3081

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I agree Davis is well into unicorn territory.

But do you speak for all Remoaners in your admission that Brexit cannot be rolled back? I'm not so sure.

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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Rocinante
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# 18541

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I think Brexit will be rolled back, but probably not in my lifetime.

I hope the following decades will be the time when Britain finally learns the hard lesson that there is nothing very special about these damp, wind-swept islands off the northwest coast of Europe.

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Sioni Sais
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# 5713

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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
When are nostalgic Remainer/second referendum/undo Brexit types going to notice that the UK won't have any MEPs after 2019?

I know that, and the consolation is that no UKIP members will receive a penny/cent from the European Parliament.

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Alan Cresswell

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# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
I agree Davis is well into unicorn territory.

Have those advocating Brexit ever been anywhere other than unicorn territory?

quote:
But do you speak for all Remoaners in your admission that Brexit cannot be rolled back?
It depends on what is meant by "rolled back". Depending on timing, MEPs would be one of the easier things to sort out - if we manage to get the government to act sensibly and democratically and decide not to leave the EU by the end of 2018 I can't see any enormous problems with running election campaigns for May 2019 to elect UK MEPs. Obviously if the roll-back happens during the post March 2019 transition period then there would either need to be an election for additional MEPs for the UK or a period without UK MEPs until the next election (to be honest, the time it'll take to negotiate a roll-back at that point it'll nearly be time for the next election by the time we're full EU member again anyway).

A roll-back (even if enacted now) won't change the relocation of EU institutions from the UK, the expense of finding new locations has already been made and they've practically started to pack boxes. Many businesses in the process of relocating some of their business to other parts of the EU will probably continue to do so. Research scientists who haven't applied for EU funding are going to have to wait until the next funding round to get back in. Universities who have seen a drop in student numbers won't fill empty places mid term. Talented people who have already moved to other EU nations won't immediately come back (if at all). The damage already made to our economy won't rapidly recover, leaving us trailing behind the EU growth curve (which will be true if we don't roll-back as well), at least until the next global recession. The rest of the EU will be a lot less likely than in the past to give the UK generous rebates or other privileges as a long standing senior member state.

A roll-back will never be a full-roll back. The election of MEPs is a long way short of insurmountable.

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Posts: 32411 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
if we manage to get the government to act sensibly and democratically and decide not to leave the EU by the end of 2018

See, I think, regretfully, that this is as far into unicorn territory as Davis.

I don't think there's any hope of a roll-back - in IT terms at least, that implies going back to exactly how things were before.

Anything short of that is a fresh start, not a roll-back, and as Rocinante says, I don't think it's going to happen for a long time, if at all.

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
if we manage to get the government to act sensibly and democratically and decide not to leave the EU by the end of 2018

See, I think, regretfully, that this is as far into unicorn territory as Davis.
Yes, it's a very big 'if'. But, not quite in the realms of referencing a Mad-Max dystopia that not even the biggest doom-mongers of Project Fear was forecasting. If we can let a party drag the country through an anti-democratic process to (fail to) fix internal political squabbles then there should be a mechanism for the people of the UK to reverse that and stand up for democracy. Still a big 'if' though, because we have such an idiotic, blinkered and self-serving bunch of ass-hats in government at the moment that something like common sense and democracy has to fight hard to be heard.

quote:
I don't think there's any hope of a roll-back - in IT terms at least, that implies going back to exactly how things were before.

Anything short of that is a fresh start, not a roll-back, and as Rocinante says, I don't think it's going to happen for a long time, if at all.

I only used 'roll-back' because it was the term you used. But, you're right, realistically a fresh start as the UK rejoins the EU is more likely. I hope that's sooner rather than later. I'd want it to happen in time for my children to enjoy the benefits of EU membership - so within the next 10 years. We might manage that here by throwing off the shackles of English government and gaining Independence, though that leaves friends and family in the rest of the UK stuck in the mess of Tory folly and UKIP facism.

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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.

Posts: 32411 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Eutychus
From the edge
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If I were to pick somewhere in the UK where I thought it most likely that at least most of the benefits of the EU could be retained or quickly recovered, it would be Northern Ireland, but I think it would be a Russian roulette type gamble.

The province could be a big winner as some sort of "special administrative region" in the short or medium term, or a big loser; I think there is as much if not more chance of it becoming part of the EU again than Scotland in the long term, via a reunited Ireland.

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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alienfromzog

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# 5327

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
I only used 'roll-back' because it was the term you used. But, you're right, realistically a fresh start as the UK rejoins the EU is more likely. I hope that's sooner rather than later. I'd want it to happen in time for my children to enjoy the benefits of EU membership - so within the next 10 years. We might manage that here by throwing off the shackles of English government and gaining Independence, though that leaves friends and family in the rest of the UK stuck in the mess of Tory folly and UKIP facism.

I don't really want Scottish independence but purely because I believe in the United Kingdom and it's essentially an emotional opinion. If I was Scottish that would have been my position pre-2016. Now I think there is a good case for Scottish independence if they can get EU membership. Economically, all that I have read supported the position that Scotland would be a lot worse off outside the UK. Now that the UK is leaving the EU (unless, by the grace of God we find an end to this madness...) that changes, and there is a distinct economic advantage to Scotland being in the EU and outside the UK.

The major problem I see here is that Scotland will never be allowed to join. As was not made clear in the referendum, new members can only join the EU by unanimous consent. Spain will veto for their own internal reasons but a veto nonetheless.

So, I don't think an independent Scotland within the EU is likely.

AFZ

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Posts: 2150 | From: Zog, obviously! Straight past Alpha Centauri, 2nd planet on the left... | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
chris stiles
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# 12641

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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:

But do you speak for all Remoaners in your admission that Brexit cannot be rolled back? I'm not so sure.

Depends on what you mean by 'rolled back'. At this point I think staying in the EU is very unlikely - though some kind of EFTA deal after the transition is still possible.

The transition could well be extended at this rate - and the one thing the past few years have taught us is that the unexpected can still happen. Yes, it's a slim hope - but it's still hope.

... and "Remoaner" is un-necessary, ISTR you don't like political nick names generally.

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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
... and "Remoaner" is un-necessary, ISTR you don't like political nick names generally.

Sorry, you're right. I was borrowing the term from Rocinante's post immediately before mine for convenience, no slight intended, but I shall try harder to practice what I preach.

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

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To your points...

quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
Depends on what you mean by 'rolled back'

I mean it in the IT sense:
quote:
an operation which returns the database to some previous state
I think that is impossible, but some people still seem to imagine it is. That is la la land as far as I can see.

quote:
The transition could well be extended at this rate
I really don't see this either. I have trouble imagining the political viability of a transition period of a couple of years, let alone remaining "in transition" semi-permanently. Consider the loss of representation involved in not even having MEPs, doubtless remaining under the sovreignty of the ECJ, and doubtless still paying some form of contribution.

That's not having your cake and eating it, it's having your cake eaten for you. It might work for Norway, but it is light-years from all those free trade arrangements enthusiastic Brexiteers keep going on about.

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
chris stiles
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# 12641

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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
I think that is impossible, but some people still seem to imagine it is. That is la la land as far as I can see.

Yes, I'd agree that's impossible - if only because all parties have changed in the interim.

quote:

quote:
The transition could well be extended at this rate
I really don't see this either. I have trouble imagining the political viability of a transition period of a couple of years, let alone remaining "in transition" semi-permanently. Consider the loss of representation involved in not even having MEPs, doubtless remaining under the sovreignty of the ECJ, and doubtless still paying some form of contribution.

Sure but politically viable for whom? The government can fall and a transition can continue - and was the last year or so proves that things can be fudged in the spinning even as they are implemented somewhat differently. As it is the existing transition period will stretch through the period where the UK has no MEPs etc. etc.

quote:

That's not having your cake and eating it, it's having your cake eaten for you. It might work for Norway, but it is light-years from all those free trade arrangements enthusiastic Brexiteers keep going on about.

Absolutely, but these paths are even more remote and even less viable.
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
Sure but politically viable for whom? The government can fall and a transition can continue - and was the last year or so proves that things can be fudged in the spinning even as they are implemented somewhat differently.

I suppose what I'm saying is the longer any such transition period persists, the more sympathy I have with those protesting about a loss of sovreignty.

Besides, even if such a solution appears less brutal than a cliff-edge Brexit, I think it's really just putting off the problem, making things more muddled and, in the long term, worse. Nobody likes uncertainty, businesses least of all. The real failure of the UK government is to grasp the nettle.

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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