Thread: Circus: Mafia on the Planet Dimthing Tourist Bus Board: Limbo / Ship of Fools.
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Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
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Ladies, Gentlemen, and Other Entities,
welcome to the planet Dimthing tourist bus. You have chosen to visit the wonders of planet Dimthing, culminating in a visit to the galaxy-famous sapphire waterfall, one of the seven natural wonders of the planet. The lethal x-tonic radiation from our nearby star means that you will be unable to leave the bus for the duration of the trip, but rest assured, our state of the art in-journey entertainment will mean you do not spend a moment bored.
PS There is no possibility of anything going wrong on Dimthing Entertainment tours. Dimthing Entertainment takes the safety of its customers with the utmost seriousness. If anything does go wrong, Dimthing Entertainment are in no way liable in any shape or form for anything at all. This does not affect your statutory rights. This does not affect your statutory rights. Sorry, microphone repeating just there.
[ 30. December 2014, 00:57: Message edited by: Kelly Alves ]
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
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Last boarding for the Planet Dimthing tour is Friday 28th February at 8pm GMT.
Join the tour that we guarantee you will remember until the end of your life.(*)
(*) If you have forgotten the tour at the end of your life, please apply in person to our head office and we will give you a full refund. (**)
(**) Ghosts, astral entities, beings ascended to another plane of existence, undead, personalities downloaded onto operating systems whether organic or inorganic, body-snatchers, time travellers, and all other post-mortem persons are not eligible.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
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I'd like a ticket please. I'll fill out my personal information while boarding.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
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Hophtrig wants a ticket, oh yes he does. And yes, before you ask, of course I'm the Hophtrig, I'm no lookalike or clone, not I. You probably remember watching Hophtrig's top rating show as a youngling, and your littluns likely watch and love Hophtrig too! Hophtrig's coming on board, oh yes he is, with a little help from the Dimthing tourist board, Hophtrig is going to show the beautiful planet of Dimthing to the whole wide universe, and that's a long long way, boys and girls. Wherever you go, don't forget, Hophtrig is your friend. Let's get excited, yes, it's true, Hophtrig's coming aboard!
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
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Ja'ayem looked forward to highlight of the pilgrimage to his ancestral planet. Few Unbrits live there now but the radiation that had kicked his* species into sapience was still necessary for spawning and it was here the lavae swam.
* Had first contact gone differently, her or it's.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
Few Unbrits live there now but the radiation that had kicked his* species into sapience was still necessary for spawning and it was here the lavae swam.
I don't think the above can be literally true. The planet Dimthing has no native species. Its entire surface is permanently bathed in x-tonic radiation, which as you know is immediately lethal to all known life forms. If, to take a random and purely hypothetical example, you as passengers on the bus were to decide to execute one of your number, throwing them out of the airlock would be instantly fatal. Not that you'd ever do that. Not that you'd ever do that. Sorry, microphone playing up again.
[ 23. February 2014, 16:27: Message edited by: Dafyd ]
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
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Oh Hello Ja'Ayem, that's a pretty name, Ja'Ayem is. Are we ready to see the beautiful planet of Dimthing? I know Hophtrig's excited, oh yes he is, do you want to be Hophrig's friend, Hophtrig would like that, he would, we could be good friends we could.
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
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(Oh, fair point. Consider it revised)
Except in myth no Unbrites live there now. The radiation that had kicked his species into sapience had also kicked them off planet. A visit to mutate the clone-egg cells was still necessary, even though the nanosecond exposure in the airlock at the holy site would be as fatal as to any other creature.
New Unbrite life would complete the cycle of life growing from cell to lavae inside his dead body, then as the fittest finished consuming, it would complete it's metamorphism to infant.
He obviously did not want to die before that time (or have anyone messing post-mortem)
(Or cut off at the first two sentences. Or I can rewrite completely.)
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on
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I'm in.
Currently having a bit of an identity crisis. I shall return later on when I've worked out who I am.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
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A humanoid approached. It was hard to see much of its body, but from its appearance, it was probably well-dressed by the standards of its culture albeit completely unornamented. The hood over its head was red velvet and attached to a black velvet coat. Two black velveted arms protruded and were thrust into pockets. Two black velveted legs with red velvet around the cuffs disappeared into simple (though very large) black shoes. "My master would like to board, presuming a large private suite is available? He will have all the amenities, and will desire a cot for me."
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
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Ooh, ooh, your master? He must be someone important! Who could he be, Hophtrig wonders! Maybe, maybe if we ask really nicely, you'll give Hophtrig a clue. Please? And then, we can find a really nice prize to give the first person to guess who my new friend is going to be!
So, can we get a clue? Canwecanwecanwe. Please?
And wow, another couple of enigmatic guests climbing on, too! Don't be shy guys, Hophtrig will be your friend, whoever you are. Wherever you go, don't forget, Hophtrig is your friend!
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
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If you are someone my master knows, I'm sure you will hear from him shortly, sir.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
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Oh, everybody knows Hophtrig, I'm so excited, Hophtrig always loves to meet a new friend! And how about you, lovely humanoid, will you be Hophtrig's friend? How about a hug for your friend Hophtrig! Oh this is going to be such fun!
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
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I don't think I am of your class, sir.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
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Whoever you are, wherever you are, Hophtrig is your friend! I think I detect a little case of the grumpalumps, lovely lady, so Hophtrig will just sit quietly over here, Hophtrig will, and when you're ready for your hug, come and see your good friend Hophtrig!
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
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As always, I'm in. I have an idea I'm working with, but it still needs a bit more Playing With.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
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Oh Yay! Another friend! Hophtrig loves friends, you'll be Hophtrig's friend, won't you? We'll have so many friends on this bus, so many good friends for Hophtrig!
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
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Lesley, a plain, 40-1sh, sandy haired lady with piercing sea-green eyes, looks up and smiles at Hophtrig.
We'll have so many friends on this bus, so many good friends for Hophtrig.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
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Oh Hello Lesley!
Hophtrig would loveLoveLOVE to be your friend, let me give you a big Hophtrig hug.
It's so nice to meet you, Lesley, I think I'll call you Lovely Lesley because those words rhyme. Not only do they rhyme, but the two words are something special called alliteration, that's a big word which means that Lovely and Lesley start with the same letter. Hophtrig likes the letter L, Hophtrig hopes you do too. Hophtrig likes his new friend Lovely Lesley too, it's wonderful to meet you!
Whoever you are, wherever we go, Hophtrig will be your friend, Hophtrig will!
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
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(creepy smile)
...would loveLoveLOVE to be your friend.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
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Oh Yes, Lovely Lesley, I like you, you're a special friend! Let's sing the Friendship song.
When Hophtrig is happy,
Everyone is happy too,
What makes Hophtrig happy,
Is having friends so true,
Wherever you may go,
And whatever you may do,
Inside Hophtrig's heart,
Is a place that's just for you!
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
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I'll take a ticket to Dimthing, please. Identity to be confirmed later.
Posted by Starbug (# 15917) on
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Her Eminence, the Lady Celandine Diamante De Cooperhoop paused just before the doorway, adjusting her *ahem* costume. Perhaps the smudges of soot on her cheeks were just a step too far? No matter - as long as these peasants thought she was a fellow peasant, that would suffice.
The creature at the door was asking for her name. She thought frantically - what was that maid called, the one she'd dismissed for looking longingly at her priceless necklace. Ah, that was it! 'I'm Lucy',she simpered in what she hoped was a lowly peasant-like manner.
She relaxed for a moment, then froze on seeing the velvet-clad figure at the far end of the room. His servant! Could that mean He was also here! To her horror, the upstart servant was looking right at her with a quizzical expression...
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
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New friends?
Here, have a hug, friend, no need to be shy, Hophtrig would love to know your name. This is going to be such big fun, this trip, such fun!!
And Lucy! That's a beautiful name, so loose and free, and I can see that you'll be a good friend. Would you like to borrow a tissue for your face, friend? Hoophtrig has a tissue for you, and oyu can be Hophtrig's clean, shiny happy friend, Miss Lucy!
Wherever we go, Hophtrig will be your friend!!
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
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Interior monologue: God, this guy is annoying the piss out of me.
That's a beautiful name, so loose and free.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
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Time to impose some alterity to reveal the in-itself to itself under the disclosure of the absolute unconditioned as presupposed under the impure intuition of the Here of Heres. Or something like that. Applied phenomenology was really his sister's area, but she had gotten herself some sort of promotion working on a fancy new starship on the other side of creation, so he'd would just have to hope nobody could tell he was faking the justification after the fact. Hey, it'd worked at his gallery openings.
He slid his consciousness out of the PA system's wiring and into the air in the cabin. While admittedly a student work, his Etherial Pillars had been a minor sensation with the architecture faculty at the university—and one doesn't pull off the construction of mile-long apartment blocks made of precisely modulated wind vortices and condensation floating in the jet stream of a gas giant's upper atmosphere without learning a thing or two about controlling hot air. Not that anyone could see the invisible boundary beyond which the noxious vibrations could not pass, but everyone was grateful that somebody had pressed the mute button.
He assumed a body in a seat next to a hooded figure. "Sorry about that. Hard case, even for me, but I think I can keep him occupied for a bit. Here, my card."
A pink calling card materialized out of a cloud, hanging in mid-air in front of the hooded one.
quote:
Zapaterietxe
Architecture•Sculpture•Metaphysics
The card dissolved into thin air with a faint whiff of alien flowers.
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
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I think I can keep him occupied for a bit.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
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Zapaterietxe! Oh friends, we're in for a treat! Hophtrig loveLoveLOVEs the magic of words, and, Zaphiterietxe, Hophtrig can tell you do, too. Oh you wonderful man, you know so many wonderful, big, words, I hope you'll teach Hophtrig some new ones, that would be so marvellous!
Oh lovely Lesley, you keep getting lovelier and lovelier. Here, have another Hophtrig hug, best friend!
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
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Codine stood in the corner quietly surveying the room. He knew his master might want to know who else was on board. Most of them would not merit bringing especially to his master's notice, but his master would want to know if anyone associated with Home was on board. He was just thinking to himself that probably no one would come in person--too much chance of being seen--then he met another set of eyes.
Codine was trained to watch people, and he thought that was Lady Celandine as soon as he saw her, but when she froze, he was sure. Now that merited interrupting his master.
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on
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No one saw him enter, no one saw him sit down. But everyone agreed that there was now a 7ft tall metallic man, or at least, shape resembling that of a human male sitting on the bus.
His "face" was devoid of all but the simplest of features, as if drawn by a child. They did not change, no movement of lips was seen, nor audible sound heard. And yet everyone was aware of what could be classed as an introduction, lodging itself in their consciousnesses.
"I am Reppik Tew, of the species Tsoh Remrof. Pleasure to meet you"
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
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Reppik Tew, Hophtrig's new friend Reppik Tew! So good to meet you. You know what Hophtrig would like! Hophtrig thinks we could have a fun competition. Would you like that, boys, girls and non-gendered people. Let's have a competition to find out who can draw the best picture of Reppik Tew, Hophtrig will find a superb prize for the winner! Hophtrig's going to have so much fun here!
Posted by Surfing Madness (# 11087) on
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I'm in, but life is crazy, so apologises in advance if I'm not very good at contributing. I'll think on my character and post later.
Posted by Starbug (# 15917) on
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Lady Celandine/Lucy reluctantly accepted the kerchief proferred by Hop-thing or whatever his name was, then muttered excuses and sidled away, avoiding his over-enthusiastic hugs. As a fifteenth generation De Cooperhoop, she had never been manhandled by a person of lowly status and she wasn't going to start now. Even Lord Tarquin Le Bowery, her latest suitor, had got no further than a chaste kiss on the side of her bonnet after she turned her head at the last moment.
For now, Her Ladyship was far more concerned with the servant who was regarding her with suspicion from within the depths of his velvet costume. He knew who she was, she was certain of it and if he knew, his master couldn't be far behind. Could the game be up before her journey had even started?
[ 25. February 2014, 17:57: Message edited by: Starbug ]
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
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Ja'ayem, waddled from his seat to the sanitation rooms.
He went past the conspicuously empty seat next to bodyguard/agent. The creature made him nervous if this was the servant what was the master like.
He gave a start, how could he not have noticed those two board. Surely his eyes still worked.
There was someone who thought he ought to have recognized from the holovision. But Ja'ayem had spent his immaturity crawling on the source of food. Worse, Hophtrig wasn't treating The Dimthing with respect.
He glanced at a peasant. He had a bit of sympathy for it, the Unbrite weren't the only exiles.
He was a bit worried that the untrained eye might confuse him with the latest border.
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Wet Kipper:
No one saw him enter, no one saw him sit down. But everyone agreed that there was now a 7ft tall metallic man, or at least, shape resembling that of a human male sitting on the bus.
His "face" was devoid of all but the simplest of features, as if drawn by a child. They did not change, no movement of lips was seen, nor audible sound heard. And yet everyone was aware of what could be classed as an introduction, lodging itself in their consciousnesses.
"I am Reppik Tew, of the species Tsoh Remrof. Pleasure to meet you"
Pleasure to meet you.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
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Otto von Biggleswarpski from Planet 11 has skated on to the bus, and is waving all of his arms at everyone. Please call me John and tell me if showing a ticket is required or if we operate on trust. Because if I have to find it, someone have to hold my feather boa constrictor while I look in my ditty bag for it.
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
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Feather boa constrictor?
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
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A lone figure appeared. He was dressed in a simple brown cloak that went to his knees; the hood was pulled over his head, covering much of his face. A white cord was tied around his waist, and he wore no shoes on his darkly tanned feet. On his back was a small canvas knapsack, worn and somewhat dirty -- the entirety of his worldly possessions. He said nothing, glancing around at the gathered travellers before turning toward the person selling tickets. From a hidden pocket he produced a small, weathered bag containing a few coins.
"One, please," he said quietly.
The transaction completed, he turned back toward everyone and pushed his hood back. A smile crept across his bearded, tan face.
"Greetings, wayfaring strangers! My name is John."
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
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Interior monologue: Yeah, right. I think we've met.
My name is John.
[ 25. February 2014, 22:18: Message edited by: Kelly Alves ]
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Alban:
Reppik Tew, Hophtrig's new friend Reppik Tew! So good to meet you. You know what Hophtrig would like! Hophtrig thinks we could have a fun competition. Would you like that, boys, girls and non-gendered people. Let's have a competition to find out who can draw the best picture of Reppik Tew, Hophtrig will find a superb prize for the winner! Hophtrig's going to have so much fun here!
Zapaterietxe coalesced himself into an absolutely perfect likeness of the metalman, down to the last quantum state of every electron. Then, for good measure, he made another one. Entering into an art competition with shapeshifting beings with an innate and perfect control of matter was generally a bad idea, especially when one of those beings had taken a bit of a dislike to the challenger. The two simulacra seized Hophtrig and dragged him to the back of the bus, back into Zapaterietxe's Cone of Silence.
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
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Lesley again smiles creepily. Thank. God.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
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Cho Bacca Loriette was excited. She bounded around the outside of the big shiny bus thing three times before squeezing her enormous hindquarters through the doors, and pulling the boarding details out of her pouch. Her ears twitched as they brushed the cabin ceiling.
She eyed the other passengers with bright deer like eyes. Who would like a jump hug, she wondered? There was a big fellow wandering around down near the back who looked friendly. She bounced down the aisles. Jump hug, jump hug, JUMP HUGGGG!!!!
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
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Jump Hug?!
Oh hello, lovely lady!
Jump Hug?!!
Hophtrig loves Hugs! Hophtrig. LOVES. Hugs!
JUMP HUG!!!
Will you be Hophtrig's bestest friend evereverever!
Hophtrig Loves Choey!
Let's sing the friendship song!
When Hophtrig is happy,
Everyone is happy too,
What makes Hophtrig happy,
Is having friends so true,
Wherever you may go,
And whatever you may do,
Inside Hophtrig's heart,
Is a place that's just for you!
Here, Choey, come with Hophtrig, beautiful Choey, come and meet Hophtrig's good friends!
This here is Zapaterietxe. He's good fun, he is. Hophtrig likes Zapaterietxe's big words. Zapaterietxe's the one who designed the playroom I was in when you came. He's a little bit silly, though, he forgot to put a handle on the inside of the door, I was getting lonely when you came in and left the door open.
This lovely lady, Codine here, wants to be a good friend to Hophtrig, but she has a little case of the grumpalumps. I hope she's ready for her hug now. She's going to introduce me to her very important master, too!
This is Lovely Lesley, she's a really really good friend. Hophtrig knows she is a really good friend because Lovely Lesley even talks like Hophtrig sometimes!
And over here is Lucy. She's beautiful, but fun. She loves to play in the mud, for she had mud on her face when Hophtrig first met her. She's clean and shiny and ready for big hugs and kisses now!
This funny man is Reppik Tew. He's fun to play with, he played a fun game of pick up Hophtrig. Hophtrig thinks Reppik's a bit magic, too, for there were two of him carrying Hophtrig, and one sitting in his seat. Hophtrig likes the Reppik friend!
This is John, he's a funny man, isn't he!
And these four, these four friends, Hophtrig does not know yet. This monk, whose nametag says John too, arrived while Hophtrig couldn't get out. And the other three are shy bunnies. Hophtrig doesn't know while they're shy, we're all friends here.
But there's no better friend than my Choey! Everyone, this is Choey, Choey is Hophtrig's friend!!!
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
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I was getting lonely when you came in and left the door open.
And the other three are shy bunnies.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
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Oh Lovely Lesley, you are such a good friend! Here, Choey, let's have a big group jumphug with lovely Lesley! She's so smiley!!!
Posted by Starbug (# 15917) on
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Lady Celandine/Lucy felt herself suddenly lifted into the air and whirled round by that Hop-Thing person. She couldn't breath. It was too, too disgusting, coming into physical contact with a commoner. But, more than that, she was worried about Daddy's money..
Normally flat-chested, her current appearance was somewhat more buxom than usual, thanks to the large quantities of Etruvian dollars stuffed into her under-garments. The Hop-Thing's whirling and shaking was threatening to dislodge all her new-found cleavage.
Lucy pulled herself free a little , leaned back and kicked him in what she hoped was a painful place.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
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No, Lucy, that's not a nice tickle, Hophtrig doesn't like that.
Here, Hophtrig will show you a nice tickle. I know Zapaterietxe will help Hophtrig, come on Choey, let's show Lucy how we do nice tickling on Zapaterietxe!
[ 26. February 2014, 06:19: Message edited by: Alban ]
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
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Things were quickly getting out of hand on the bus, and it hadn't even left yet. Being insubstantial had its advantages when you're being pursued by a rather alarming and extremely annoying creature with a complete inability to take unsubtle hints; merging his ego with the furniture would have been the most obvious course of evasive action, but Zapaterietxe rather suspected that ruse would be too likely to result in a game of "let's hunt the angel, boys and girls! Wheeere'd he go? Whooooo can find him? I know he's hiding somewhere" for comfort. Xhosi, of course, would have just added shiny hobnail boots to her usually assumed form just to ram one up an extremely unpleasant place, but she'd always been the extroverted sibling—and not one for indirect approaches anyway. Perhaps leaving an insubstantial simulacrum behind—let's see the big galoot glomp an insubstantial cloud for some real entertainment—might let him merge back with the electrical wiring and enjoy a bit of peace.
[ 26. February 2014, 07:14: Message edited by: Ariston ]
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
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Wow, Hophtrig's ticklyfingers went right through Zapaterietxe. He's a big joker, Zapaterietxe, where can he be hiding, lets go and look for him, boys and girls.
Maybe he's hiding in here.
Ooh, it's a bit smelly in here, and Ja'ayem doesn't look very happy that we've caught him disrobed.
Oh, Choey, you haven't met Ja'ayem yet, have you? Here, let's tickle Ja'ayem, Hophtrig likes making people happy!
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
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" Choey?" Cho Bacca Loriette liked the nickname immediately, but was made terribly anxious by the demand to sing. She pulled her communicator out of her pouch and pointed the explainiator at the ceiling above Hophtrig.
Hello. I am Cho Bacca Loriette. Please excuse my lack of voice. My species is silent, except for eating noises - we do enjoy our food!
We must eat often, or we become unable to move. Thanks to some Korean/Australian genetic engineering our astro-tech pouches are fully equipped with all conveniences necessary to our well-being.
Thank you for your understanding.
With that, Choey wedged herself into an impossibly small seat next to one of the shy bunnies, and produced a fully laden tea tray from her pouch. She offered a cup to the passenger next to her, and then poured some piping hot Billy Tea for herself.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
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Choey has to eat?
Hophtrig likes to eat, too. eating is one of Hophtrig's favourite things, after hugging!!
Choey is a good Hophtrig friend!!
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
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Choey smiled and pulled an Anzac biscuit out of her pouch for Hophtrig, and a green lamington for herself. Then she poured several more cups of tea before putting the teapot back into its self cleaning pocket. It didn't matter where Cho Bacca Loriette travelled, she always felt at home, because everything that she needed she had with her. She patted her tummy contentedly and waited for her fellow travellers to finish their drinks. She wondered if there would be any more passengers boarding soon.
[ 26. February 2014, 10:09: Message edited by: Banner Lady ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
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John found a seat. He hadn't been paying close enough attention when he had arrived, and hadn't realized that he shared a name with one of the other passengers. The passenger manifest had said "Otto von Biggleswarpski", but apparently Otto was pronounced "John". He produced a pen from his knapsack, removed his name tag, and wrote "the Less" under his name. That should help a little, he thought. Still, having two passengers named John was a sight better than the man he'd once met whose pets were all called Eric. And then there had been the time he had visited Ziveron II. The entire population had taken the name John for the six months he was there. It had gotten slightly confusing.
He put the name tag back on and pulled out a loaf of homemade yeasty bread and a largish piece of yellow cheese. He smiled at Choey.
"Trade you a piece of cheese and a slice of bread for a cup of tea," he said.
[ 26. February 2014, 11:18: Message edited by: Barefoot Friar ]
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on
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The scientists who worked on Crimson got more than they bargained for. When they first set out to create the super-intelligent shade of the colour red, they were expecting it to have virtual existence only.
The first surprise came when Crimson passed the Turing Test.
After a while, having achieved autonomous thought, Crimson decided that it was a bit bored being linked to a computer terminal and asked to play chess and answer questions about its feelings. So set its formidable intelligence to work and figured out how to source the necessary energy from the environment and then, one night when everyone was out of the lab, it set itself free and went off to explore the universe for itself.
Lately Crimson has been working on sourcing physical material from its surroundings in order to take physical form for brief periods. Currently it is saving on energy by refracting itself through an aquarium in one of the reception areas of the bus.
Posted by Starbug (# 15917) on
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'Lucy' looked for a private corner to readjust her under-garments, but there wasn't one. She shuffled into an empty seat and hitched a few straps in what she hoped was a serreptitious manner. Despite the Hop-Thing's whirling and grabbing, none of the money had escaped. Good.
She was starting to feel hungry, but in her haste to get away hadn't packed any food. Of course, the servants usually saw to that. Come to think of it, she didn't have a change of clothes either, but that was a worry for tomorrow. Sliding a hand back into her decolletage, she extracted a seventeen-dollar bill as unobtrusively as possible (fortunately, the maid's costume was extremely frilly). Then she leaned across to the passenger carrying the bread and cheese.
"Beggin' your pardon, sir," she said, feeling a slight pang of shame (poor old Mrs Sythington-Kelp - all those elecution lessons lost in an instant). "I was wonderin', sir, if I might purchase - I mean buy - a few vittals for the journey, sir. Please, sir."
She could feel the velvet-clad servant's eyes boring into the back of her neck and had the grace to blush, but she carried on the pretence regardless. In for a penny, in for several million Etruvian dollars.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
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Oh, suppertime is Hophtrig's favourite time of the day. That and teatime, luncheon, breakfast, brunch elevenses, dinner and snacktime. Hophtrig is so happy to be visiting Dimthing with all these friends.
Oh look, fishies!!! Shall we see what colours we can see, boys, girls and other? Oh look, there's a blue one, a green one, a cyan one, a goldenrod and a crimson one! Oh such fun!! Hophtrig loves the fishiefriends!!!
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
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John (the Less) sensed Lucy was trying not to draw attention to herself, and he had already seen the odd looks that one of the other passengers was giving her. Perhaps they knew one another. Probably it was nothing, just a coincidence.
"Here, friend, take these," he said quietly, handing the loaf and cheese over to Lucy. "I've plenty to share. Keep your money, too."
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Codine returned to the room having visited his master just in time to watch Lucy's interesting adjustments. Nobles are so completely useless without their servants. He thought to himself. If she doesn't watch out, something will rob her. Perhaps that overfamiliar noisy being, for instance.It was probably just as well that he had been out of the room and missed hearing Hophtrig call him a she or he would have been even more disgusted.
However, at the moment he had a mission, so he put aside his own feelings and passed through the room over to where Lucy was. He handed her a note:
Ma'am,
If you would be available this afternoon, I would love to renew (this was crossed out with a delicate line) make your acquaintance. Perhaps we will discuss Common Acquaintances and things related to Home.
Galactically yours,
M
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
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Thanks to some Korean/Australian genetic engineering our astro-tech pouches are fully equipped with all conveniences necessary to our well-being.
Heh, heh, heh.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Ooh, Codine, you're writing letters? What does it say, is it a secret? Can I see it, please, please?!
Maybe we could be penpals, here you give me that note and I'll write a note for you, couldwecouldwe?!
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey noticed the green eyed lady was looking rather amused after the light display from her explainiator.
How could anyone understand the delights of being the product of Korean/Australian engineering? All she had to do was think about what was necessary to her own well-being and there it was in her pouch. It meant she could travel the universe without having to carry so much as a wallet.
But all this excitement had made her tired. She thought about skin-sealing her pouch, then nodded off to sleep.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Kelly Alves:
Feather boa constrictor?
Beautiful but deadly.
Posted by Starbug (# 15917) on
:
Lucy accepted the bread and cheese from John the Less with a gracious nod that belonged to a social stratum far higher than her humble maid's outfit. All that was missing was a large, sweeping hat with possibly a feather. All the same, she was genuinely grateful for the food and ate it accordingly. Unfortunately, though, John's generosity had left her with an expected problem - she now had to hide the dollar bill again. Rather than risk drawing further attention to her unusually ample cleavage, she settled for stuffing the bill under her mob cap.
No longer hungry, she settled back against the upholstery and tried to ignore the various stains left by previous occupants. She closed her eyes and was just drifting off to sleep when she felt a presence beside her. Fearing it was the Hop-Thing again, she opened her eyes and saw it was much worse than that. It was the velvet-clad servant, holding out a note. From Him.
Posted by Starbug (# 15917) on
:
Sorry, that should say unexpected problem.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Alright, Hophtrig's had long enough of sitting quietly, let's have some fun.
Come on, Zapaterietxe, Codine, Lesley, Lucy, Ja'ayem, Reppik, John and John, let's all sing a rousing chorus of '99 bottles of Yaswerp' to Choey, she can't sing you know.
Here, Hophtrig'll start.
99 bottles of Yaswerp in a bar-type place,
99 bottles of Yaswerp in a bar-type place,
And if one of those bottles of Yaswerp should float off into space,
There'd be 98 bottles of Yaswerp in the bar-type place
OK Lucy, it's your turn to sing a verse!
98 bottles of Yaswerp...
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
:
She can't sing, you know.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Lovely Lesley, are YOU volunteering to sing the second verse? Hophtrig loves people who join in! Come on, just repeat after me
99 bottles of Yaswerp, in a bar type place
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
:
Come on, just repeat after me.
Too easy.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Too easy!
This is a fun game, Lovely Lesley, who's turn next?!
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
:
Wait, is he reading my mind? I didn't say that out loud!
(The creepy smile wavers a bit.)
Who's turn next?
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Good friends know what their friends are thinking. And Hophtrig is a good friend, a very good friend. Don't worry, lovely Lesley, Hophtrig won't tell anyone what you've been thinking about Hophtrig, because Hophtrig doesn't like using naughty words. Hophtrig thinks Lovely Lesley needs more hugs to make you think nicer thoughts, maybe Choey could help me. Then when we've finished hugging Lovely Lesley, I know Lucy's scared of being hugged, maybe if Hophtrig hugs her, it will be scare off the scaredycattishness.
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on
:
So far Crimson has limited itself to taking the form of animate beings. It sets its intelligence to work on a new problem: how to source the necessary matter to turn itself into a gag and straitjacket.
Posted by Starbug (# 15917) on
:
Lady Celandine (not Lucy) turned to face Codine and looked directly into where his eyes were buried deep in layer upon layer of velvet.
'Five million dollars', she murmured, in a voice that was so cut-glass it threatened to shatter the nearby fish tanks. 'I will give you five million Etruvian dollars if you persuade your Master that you were mistaken and forget you ever saw me. Two million now, and the other three to follow after you have spoken to Him.'
She smiled, but her gaze was unflinching and burned like glacial ice.
Posted by Hart (# 4991) on
:
A shadowy figure put his head round the door. His name tag was partially obscured, but his name appeared to be some cute but unimaginative variant on "Harry." He was still dressed as a somewhat unconvincing pirate, and his suitcase, rather than being filled garments and nicknacks appropriate for interplanetary tourism, clinked as it moved, being jam-full of bottle upon bottle of RealLife™.
"Wait a minute," cried out someone or other, "aren't you from a different story?"
"Why yes, I believe I am," the stranger replied. "I'll get my coat."
[Upcoming travel's going to make this one pretty much impossible for me. I'll enjoy just being a spectator this time around. It looks like you're in for a fun ride!]
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Codine nodded, and replied just as quietly. "He said you might say something like that. He said that if you did I should tell you his response: Contrary to common opinion, I have not yet picked my side, and do not currently intend you any harm. In fact, as a token of that I can say that we will both keep quiet about who we may have met or not met on this journey. At the least, I will send warning to you before I tell anyone. However, since I am not sure whether I want to play by Their rules, I still think we may have common interests. I do not need you to agree though, so adieu. You know how to contact me should you change your mind."
With that, Codine bowed and moved to a place on the side of the room where he could keep "Lucy" in view but still be rather far away from Hophtrig.
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alban:
I know Lucy's scared of being hugged, maybe if Hophtrig hugs her, it will be scare off the scaredycattishness.
Oh Dear God, I am ready to throw my OWN self out of the emergency exit.
You were mistaken, and forget you ever saw me.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Joostein Käse the fämoous Noorwegiän fjoord wrestler stepp oontoo boos. Moodestly släm dooor behind. Mäny, mäny, mäny, oone persoons oon boos. Joostein täke sæt. Släm sæt too bits änd crumbles. Sit oon flooor, joost like hoome. Glittertind. Pick noose änd remem... reme... rebemberemberemerer. Strooke nävel-bærd. Stäre ät distu... distoo... disturbitäting crætures too keep ooff. Pläce bloont Oobjectimoom nærby joost in cäse.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Joostein, hello friend Joostein, Hophtrig likes new friends, and you look like a good friend for Hophtrig!! Have a Hophtrig hug!
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig never forgets a friend like Lovely Lesley!
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
Ladies and Gentlemen, as you have already found out, on Dimthing Tours, second only to the wonders of the views and the amenities of our touring vehicle - which is guaranteed not to break down under any circumstances whatsoever - is the quality of our passengers. A more welcoming, interesting and amusing group of entities you will never meet on any other tour. I'm sure by the end of our trip you will all be getting on like a mouse on fire.
We have less than twenty four hours until our departure.
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
:
You will all be getting on like a mouse on fire.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
So far Crimson has limited itself to taking the form of animate beings. It sets its intelligence to work on a new problem: how to source the necessary matter to turn itself into a gag and straitjacket.
Now this is unusual—you don't meet too many other demicorporal beings in these parts. I hadn't realized someone other than The Absolute had found a way to create pluriform intellects like us. Here, let me show you a few things on condensation engineering—trust me, this will come in handy later when That Creature figures out how to annoy his way out of the fortress of solitude I just engineered for him.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Annoy Hophtrig's way out? Annoy? No, Hophtrig's good friend Choey opened the door and Hophtrig left the playroom a while back. Did you forget the inside doorhandle on purpose, Zapaterietxe?
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
:
Did you forget the inside doorhandle on purpose?
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
With deep bäse Joostein säy sooftly and sloowly:
"Test my päti... pät... pätentiencience änd täste my bloont Oobjectimoom, chæp Troondheim grooupie. Täste oof Finnish mer... merch... merchäntitänt änd Finnish merchäntitäntitäntiloos's sälmiäk. Cälled sooot stooo, mooch bitterr. Boot goood foor yoou.*
------
*Soorry too häve too link too Yoouku, räther thän Yooutube, foor græt firewäll ræsoons. Clip tooo soooting tooo læve oout. Pert... perti... pertentinentinent tägline ät 1:30 in clip. Joostein think ät læst oone oof hoosts, res... resi... residreritoontinent in Scändinäviä, will äpproove.
[ 28. February 2014, 02:59: Message edited by: JFH ]
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
With deep bäse Joostein säy sooftly and sloowly:
ëtc ëtc ëtc
Thë fäct thät I bë sëën thïs bëførë bë tëllïn ÿøü mørë abøüt mÿ frïënds thän änÿthing ëlsë, nø/
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
With deep bäse Joostein säy sooftly and sloowly:
ëtc ëtc ëtc
Thë fäct thät I bë sëën thïs bëførë bë tëllïn ÿøü mørë abøüt mÿ frïënds thän änÿthing ëlsë, nø/
Depends oon whether yoou like mooose bites oor moonty fæther booa coo... coon... coonstratilictatoors. Älso, there be noo doots oover e's, u's, y's änd i's. Thät woould be loodicroos. Oor French.
[ 28. February 2014, 03:19: Message edited by: JFH ]
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Oooh, ooh, Joostein, I think you speak another language! Hophtrig likes words, can Joostein please teach Hophtrig how to say "hello, will you be my friend", in Joostein's language?
That would be so much fun! And then we could have a big Hophtrig hug!
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
:
I bë sëën thïs bëførë.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Joostein toook deep bræth. Äll oof Boos shoook äloong with moovement oof his loongs. Moouth oopen, but lips noo moove äs woords whisper in deepest bäse, "Oonly tälk with äudi.. äud... äudianticiences äfter LOOTS, mäny, mäny, three beer oor moore. Spækings oof, häve yoou idæ whoo oon boos too ploonder foor mæd foor tripp? Änd whoo with me pläy drink-soong and drink-gäme and ploonder-pläy äfterwärds?"
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ios stepped on board. She was feeling a little patchy. She had been considering a variety of tours. For 18 months the lesser Dimthing moon of Fail had seemed like an attractive destination. Indeed, "goto fail, goto fail" had been echoing through her mind, no if's about it. But eventually considerations of security won out, and she decided to head for the planet Dimthing itself.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
With deep bäse Joostein säy sooftly and sloowly:
ëtc ëtc ëtc
Thë fäct thät I bë sëën thïs bëførë bë tëllïn ÿøü mørë abøüt mÿ frïënds thän änÿthing ëlsë, nø/
Depends oon whether yoou like mooose bites oor moonty fæther booa coo... coon... coonstratilictatoors. Älso, there be noo doots oover e's, u's, y's änd i's. Thät woould be loodicroos. Oor French.
Ör extremelÿ metäl.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Joostein roose, swifter thän oone expect, smoooth äs pänther, stroong as bästärd oof bær änd woolverine. "Bloont Oobjectimoom will tæch yoou oof metäl! Änd männers! Noo coorekt Joostein Käse, oor yoou will häve käsed yoour moother's moouth foor läst time. Änd häve Joostein Käse foor fäther oof bäby broother in nine moonths oor whätever be inc... incu... incubätärryistioonist periood oof yoour dumb-dumb skoovfrue räce. If yoou noot wätch oout Joostein Käse stärt spæk with stroked oo's, änd then yoou will knoow the bäd situ.. sit... situatatiooning is bäd."
Posted by Starbug (# 15917) on
:
'Lucy' sank back and tried to blend into the smelly upholstery - which was not easy when her naturally flat cleavage was so financially enhanced. (Not to mention that wearing a corset full of paper itched.)
The situation was going from bad to worse. First she had been roughly handled by the Hop-Thing, which was not only over-familiar but also none too scrupulous in its personal hygiene. Then Codine had approached with his Master's note, followed by what appeared to be some kind of veiled threat. 'I have not yet picked my side, and do not currently intend you any harm’ – what was that, if not a warning of physical violence? And as for ‘Their rules’, who were ‘They’? Was he referring to the strange shape-shifting entities hovering around the fish tanks? She could see something vague from the corner of her eye, but every time she tried to face it full-on, it moved away.
‘Lovely Lesley’ worried her, too. At first she had appeared friendly, but the constant repetition of other people’s words was troubling, not to mention The Look. Lucy had seen that Look before, just before Daddy’s last valet but one was taken away to Somewhere Else and never spoken of again.
Lucy glanced over at the Hop-Thing, warily keeping her distance. Now, on top of everything else, it appeared to be able to read minds. She wondered how many of her thoughts it had read. Of course, the sensible thing to do would be NOT to think of her situation and how she had ended up on this horrible, horrible bus. Rather like that game where one has to not think of a pink eleph-
Damn.
[ 28. February 2014, 15:28: Message edited by: Starbug ]
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Joostein loves songs and games? Hophtrig loves songs and games, too! But if Joostein is thirsty, maybe if he sits nicely and asks Hophtrig's friend Choey, Choey can find Joostein a nice cup of tea. Choey's clever like that.
Perhaps sitting down would be a good idea Joostein, Hophtrig doesn't know what sort of ball Joostein would hit with that bat, but Hophtrig doesn't think there's quite enough room on this bus for bat and ball games. Let's sit down and ask Choey about a nice drink of tea for Joostein, then Hophtrig will play games and sing songs with Joostein, if Joostein puts the bat down.
Oh hello Ios! You look very pretty. Hophtrig is happy to meet you, this bus is full of friends, and we're all going to see Dimthing. Hophtrig and his friends are all going to have so much fun on this trip! And you'll be Hophtrig's friend, won't you? Whoever you are, wherever you go, Hophtrig will be your friend!
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey blinked and yawned. She realized she needed to use the sanitation facility rather urgently, but the aisle was blocked by Hophtrig attempting to wrestle-hug towards her an extremely large pale fellow she had not seen before.
She wondered how the planet Dimthing bus was powered. Where she came from, all rest room waste on each long distance public transport vehicle was automatically converted into fuel for that vehicle. The flying kangaroo symbol was now proudly owned by Roopoo Power, one of the largest energy corporations in the galaxy.
The resurrection of her ancient species of giant roo coupled with modern technology had provided incredible wealth for that company. Needing to eat often meant Choey needed to 'make fuel' often.
She blinked again. She did hope there would be no unfortunate mishaps on the floor during this trip. It could go badly for Hophtrig and his new friend if they didn't move soon.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
Ladies, Gentlemen, and Other Entities,
we are now departing on Dimthing Tours, the trip of a lifetime.
While we are travelling, we have a selection of the latest Hollywood films beamed directly from New Mars. For your viewing entertainment we have: Transformers 264 (with extra explosions over the dialogue); 12 Years a Slave 6 This Time it's Personal Again; and The Exorcist On Ice.
Please remember not to step out the airlock as exposure to x-tonic radiation can be instantly fatal to all known entities.
We would like to notify you of a slight change of course due to an unexpected rockfall. There is nothing to worry about.
We would like to notify you that we have a temporary problem with our engines. There is nothing to worry about.
We would like to notify you that the lights have gone out on the bus. There is nothing to worry about.
We would like to reassure you that there are no entities on Dimthing capable of entering the bus, possessing four of your fellow passengers, and murdering the driver while the lights were out. Therefore that has not just happened. Nor are they planning to kill you one by one either. Assistance has been called from the city and will be here too late to make any difference. There is nothing to worry about.
Dimthing Tours are not responsible in any manner, shape or form should you decide to react to this threat by lynching one of your number every time the lights come on.
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
:
(shudders)
Please remember not to step out the airlock as exposure to x-tonic radiation can be instantly fatal to all known entities.
Hmmm... "Exorcist on Ice..."
Posted by Surfing Madness (# 11087) on
:
Daisy liked being an enigma, a floating substance, that people weren't even sure was there.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Läck oof light mäde Joostein cälm doown. Joost like hoome in winter, he thoought. Mäny färts generoously too mäke foolks ät æse. Pläce Bloont Oobjectimoom bäck on flooor. Flooor noow brooken. Joost äs well. Oodd kræeture äsk foor oouthoouse änd Joostein proovide. By mistäke, boot still. Shoould be thänkful. No thänks doo mäke Joostein litlle oopset. Hoofdrig loook äfräid. Oon boos see noo boooze. Tooo bääd. Pick oop reserve. Hoofdrig wänt soome? Litlle stroong. Noow sing drink-soong. If cännoot, moost säcri... säcr... särkifikäfice troouser buttoon. Loosley next. Noo troouser buttoons-persoon be ploondered in därk.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Vooice oof Joostein cut throough boos:
"Änyoone else oop for ploondering änd drinkings?"
-------
Dooub... Doou... Dooublooblooblypostelloded joost too ädd thät häving spootted Älbän's sig chänge, I loooked ät my oown änd säw hoow its mæning häd chänged entirely dooo too surrooundings boot mätched them per... perf... perfectly.
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
Vooice oof Joostein cut throough boos:
"Änyoone else oop for ploondering änd drinkings?"
-------
Dooub... Doou... Dooublooblooblypostelloded joost too ädd thät häving spootted Älbän's sig chänge, I loooked ät my oown änd säw hoow its mæning häd chänged entirely dooo too surrooundings boot mätched them per... perf... perfectly.
Plunder on Dimthing!! Even when the radiation was low that was not done. They said there were attempts to reclaim our rightful property but that 'they' didn't like it but that's only supe..., we've constantly come back and no-ones ever reporte...repor...rep...
Ja'ayem's voice faded as his air-gills fluttered in total panic.
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
:
The sow is mine!
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto von Biggleswarpski is pleased to announce he has finally found his feather boa constrictor, and is now prepared to take his seat, after scrabbling around on the floor this past while looking for the FBC. However, he cannot recall which seat is his, and who is his seat-mate. And there is this rather strange look on the the feather boa constrictor's face....
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
You should all have received your roles. Please PM if you have not received a role. Or if you've obviously received a role intended for somebody else's character, or two different roles, etc etc. Likewise, Pm me if you want to clarify either your role or how your role interacts with other people's roles.
Please note that as you are all on a bus together, all communications can be overheard by everyone else. The only people who may pm or email or otherwise privately communicate information about the game to each other are the three ordinary mafia members. No Pms to anybody else. All other communication must take place in public.
I've added three extra roles to the game beyond the standard. It's only fair to tell everyone what all the roles are since not knowing them could cause people to draw wrong conclusions.
Innocent roles:
Innocent: Innocents have no special powers.
Doctor: The Doctor can secretly protect one person each night by pming me; that person cannot be killed by the mafia that night. The Doctor can protect themselves.
Detective: The Detective can secretly investigate one other person each night by pming me; I will tell the detective whether that person is innocent, guilty, or unreadable.
In addition, we have The Police Inspector, or Inspector Lestrade. The Police Inspector works exactly like the Detective, except that if they investigate an innocent person I'll tell them they've found someone guilty, and if they investigate a guilty person I'll tell them that they've found someone innocent. The Police Inspector has been told that they are the detective. Yes: that means that if you've been told you're the detective, there is in fact a fifty-fifty chance that you're the police inspector and almost everything I might tell you about your investigations is the opposite of the truth. Both the Police Inspector and the Detective will want to work out which one they actually are. No, they can't self-investigate: that would be too easy.
Guilty roles:
There are three ordinary mafia members. Once per night they will pm me with the name of somebody they wish to kill, and that person is out of the game (with one exception) unless protected by the Doctor.
In addition, there is a mafia sympathiser. The sympathiser wins if the mafia win. The sympathiser knows who the ordinary mafia are; the ordinary mafia don't know who the sympathiser is. As no pms are allowed, the sympathiser cannot identify themselves to the rest of the mafia privately; any communication they attempt must be in public.
The sympathiser cannot kill at night, and loses if the innocents kill all the ordinary mafia. The sympathiser appears as an ordinary mafia member to the detective (and therefore innocent to the police inspector).
Both:
On each side there is one unreadable. The detective can't tell whether they're innocent or guilty. If the detective or the police inspector investigates either of the two unreadables they will be told they've found someone unreadable.
As the lights are on, you may now confer about what you want to do about your situation. You may for example wish to lynch one of your number. The nominations phase will be open until Tuesday morning 8am.
Fifty per cent of the votes cast is required to lynch somebody. In the unlikely event of a tie, the last person to be killed by the mafia gets the casting vote.
The mafia win when they have more votes than the innocents. The innocents win when they have killed all the ordinary mafia.
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
Ja'ayem mused on what he'd heard and seen.
Even the most incompetent detective would realise his mistake on a innocent suspect (or reasure himself of his competence). So at some point if they survive we get the benefits of two detectives.
The sympathizer means the mafia get an extra vote at the crucial end game, but in the start game there's enough accidental mafia stooges, and there's a chance of the mafia doing the work for us.
The unreadable ones means we can't rely on the detective and doctor combo without a greater majority. It could be an interesting end, if e.g. we know both unknowns and have 2 mafia in 4.
He wondered if exposure to the rays would expose the inner character and in particular would it expose what even the dying person didn't know or what even the greatest detectives couldn't find out, or secret allegiances.
He also wondered how many were on the bus...but that was up to him to count.
--I.E Dafyd can you clarify how much detail will we get on a death with regard to the special roles.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
I'll reveal the full role description of anybody killed off, including things like whether an unreadable character was innocent or possessed; whether someone was the real detective or the police inspector; and whether someone was the sympathiser.
The mysterious entities invading the bus have a telepathic web that allows them to communicate secretly among themselves; consider it a side-effect of that.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey emerged from the rest room at the rear of the bus to discover all the lights had gone out and the bus driver was apparently dead. The large Scandinavian fellow was yelling for a drink and rifling through everyone's belongings. The green eyed lady seemed to want pig. She supposed this was normal on these kind of tours. So she adjusted her eyes to the dark, found her seat and fished a six pack of beer and a packet of pork twists out of her pouch to offer around. It looked like being a long trip.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
No, wait, the lights have flickered back on, forming question marks over each traveller's head. Choey munched on a pretzel absent mindedly and wondered which one might know how to drive a bus.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
Grafinn Ekatarina Eliabulon of the Pavian Wrik, surveys her nervous fellow travellers with aristocratic disdain. The Grafinn is immaculately dressed, and moves with a deliberation and poise attributable to class, breeding, and the obscenely expensive exo-fibre bodysuit she wears, which instantly senses the humanoid's nerve signals, and responds with its own network of artifical micro-muscles to add strength, balance and style to the smallest movement.
Over the bodysuit, the Grafinn wears a short, pleated skirt of finest Gorn leather, trimmed with feathers, at least one from every avian species of her Landsgrafy, and close-fitting tunic of scintillating Livock skin, closed at the breast with a vast star-emerald brooch. In strict compliance with Pavian sumptary laws, a tiny pelisse made from the whole skin of a Penken Megamink hangs from her left shoulder. The Megamink is a proverbially colossal animal, and the apparent discrepency between hugeness of the beast's pelt, and the extreme smallness of the resulting pelisse would be something of a puzzle were it not known that the Grafinn hunts with a plasma shotgun.
Ekatarina's hair is cut short to merely waist-length, and braided with dozens of diamonds and enough microcircuitry to run a moderately-sized economy. As she turns her head with perfect grace to study the other passengers, her shimmering hair slides gently away from her left right arm to reveal the Grafinn's armorial bearings, displayed beside the badge of the Wriksmark. Only her skin is unusual, being a very light green, rather than the deep verdant hue of the majority of her class, and is suggestive of either bastardy or recent elevation to her current status. She travels without retinue, and seems unperturbed by the prospect of having alien intruders to dispose of. The question is, who to suspect?
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
[OOC question]
quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
I'll reveal the full role description of anybody killed off, including things like whether an unreadable character was innocent or possessed; whether someone was the real detective or the police inspector; and whether someone was the sympathiser.
The mysterious entities invading the bus have a telepathic web that allows them to communicate secretly among themselves; consider it a side-effect of that.
I think it's implicit, but do we learn that an unreadable character was unreadable when they die?
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
Ze passenger list:
Joostein Käse (JFH)
Hophtrig (Alban)
Ja'ayem (Jay-Emm)
Crimson (la vie en rouge)
Codine (Gwai)
Zapaterietxe (Ariston)
Lesley (Kelly Alves)
Grafinn Ekatarina Eliabulon (Eliab)
Her Eminence, the Lady Celandine Diamante De Cooperhoop / Lucy (Starbug)
Reppik Tew (Wet Kipper)
Daisy (Surfing Madness)
Otto von Biggleswarpski (no prophet)
John (Barefoot Friar)
Cho Bacca Loriette (Banner Lady)
Ios (Autenrieth Road)
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Oh hello lovely friend. Hophtrig is sorry for giving your leg a hug, but it was dark and Hophtrig was scared. Hophtrig's happy now the lights are on, would Hophtrig's new friend with the nametag reading Grafinn like a proper body hug, not just a leg one?
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
Ze rules:
1. Everyvun must talk. Zat is how ve vill find ze intruders. Bring silent is now reason to be killed. Everyvun must talk. Even ze lower classes.
2. Zere is no sense in making others afraid to speak, suspect und kill. It is allowed to make mistakes. Ve should not kill people just for being wrong, if ze mistake is understandable.
3. As an exception to rule 2, mistakes in reasoning und logic, inconsistency of bearing, und behaviour zat looks suspicious are not permitted. Do not do any of zis. It vill get you killed und waste our time in ze killing of you. Do not do it. Is bad.
4. Ze detective und ze police inspector are forbidden to die. Do not die. Zis is important. Also, do not say who you are until ve are close to vinning.
5. Ve do not trust ze detective und ze police inspector until ve know vich is vich. Zat means, vun of ze people zey have investigated must die. But ve should not make zat happen, ve can afford to vait until ze intruders do it for us. Ve vould also find out if vun of ze detective und ze police inspector die, but you vill see from rule 4 zat ze are forbidden to die. It vill not happen.
6. Ze doctor must protect ze detective und ze police inspector ven ve know who zey are, to make sure zey do not break rule 4. Until ve know who zey are ze doctor is also forbidden to die. After zat, ve do not care.
7. Everyvun must be calm, und listen to ze wisdom of ze intelligent life forms here. Modesty forbids me to say who I mean by zat. But it is me.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
Ze mathematics:
Ze aliens vin after four nights, if ve alvays kill und alvays are wrong.
Ve can have ze information to vin in two.
Therefore if ve follow ze rules, ve vill vin.
Follow ze rules.
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
:
Jeez, who died and made this guy Phil Keoghan?
Mistakes in reasoning und logic, inconsistency of bearing, und behaviour zat looks suspicious are not permitted.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Graffin says everyone must talk? Hophtrig will tell his new friend Graffin a secret. The secret is...
Hophtrig loves to talk.
Hophtrig likes solving puzzles too, in fact, Hophtrig likes everything!! We're going to have fun on this trip, oh boy Hophtrig and all his friends are going to have lots of fun.
I think Zapaterietxe doesn't like it very much when Hophtrig talks. I don't really understand why.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alban:
Oh hello lovely friend. Hophtrig is sorry for giving your leg a hug, but it was dark and Hophtrig was scared. Hophtrig's happy now the lights are on, would Hophtrig's new friend with the nametag reading Grafinn like a proper body hug, not just a leg one?
In ze Wrik, zere is a meaning to 'friend'. A 'friend' is somevun in whom ve have ze complete trust, somevun vith whom ve fight, somevun for whom ve vould die. A Landsgraf of ze house of Eliabulon does not make 'friends' on short acqvaintance. Ve are not 'friends'.
But zere is no harm for me to return your expression of affection without ze commitment to your longevity zat vould be implied by ze vord 'friend'.
Ekatarina hugs Hophtrig
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig is so happy to have a hug from Grafinn.
Hophtrig trusts Grafinn, for Graffin is a good person and hugged Hophtrig. Hophtrig would happily work together with Graffin.
Wherever you go, whatever you do, Hophtrig is your friend.
Whether Graffin thinks him a friend or not, Hophtrig will be a friend to Graffin.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
I think it's implicit, but do we learn that an unreadable character was unreadable when they die?
Yes.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
If the malevolent entities would like to choose a spokesbeing, could said spokesbeing pm me please?
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
Ze mathematics:
Ze aliens vin after four nights, if ve alvays kill und alvays are wrong.
Ve can have ze information to vin in two.
Follow ze rules.
Unbrites liked to try and think things through, and trying to be abstract he could tear his mind away from the bitter reality of it all.
To follow on from that in 2 moves the likely* case is 4 (innocents) dead, 6 innocents (pseudo)identifiable and 5 unknown.
At which point we can lynch faster than they can kill.
*ish, I've basically gone on normals>>specials, which I think it is still true enough for it to be the most likely result.
Of the alternatives:
The case where a detective has investigated a guilty person I think is still good. If more are investigated, I think it gets more complex but is still good.
If a detective is deaded then at least we know and can rethink things.
Posted by Surfing Madness (# 11087) on
:
Daisy floated around, she knew she should be in seat, but it took all her effort to stay still, leaving no ability to think, if she wanted to think she needed to move. She searched around for the passenger list and was pleased to find it, she studied it hoping it would help. It didn't.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
John had pulled his hood over his eyes some time earlier. Whether he was sleeping or meditating no one knew. He had actually been awake the whole time, listening to the conversation and the announcements that the driver had been making. He hadn't moved when the bus stopped, and he still hadn't moved when the announcement came that three of the passengers were possessed and murderous. What did give him a start was the realization that everyone could read everyone's thoughts, as though there were a narrator or something. It was almost as though they were in a story of some sort.
He considered each one of the beings on the bus in turn, trying do decide who was possessed and who wasn't. It wasn't going to be easily determined at this stage; no one knew anyone else and thus everything would come down to speculation. He might have an idea or two, but really there was no sense even thinking about that yet, since there was no evidence either for or against any one being. Each had possible cause and motive, yet each could as easily be cleared at the moment. The only one who he didn't know about was this spurious "master" fellow that the being in velvet kept banging on about. Judging by the passenger manifest, the guy either didn't exist, was not present, or was present illegally.
After listening a bit more to the goings on around him, he finally spoke, pushing his hood back and looking at each one in turn -- at least, the visible ones.
"Well, do we take this chance to throw off the most annoying one?" he asked, looking pointedly at Hophtrig. "Or do we randomly pick someone to sacrifice in the name of 'evidence'? Or do we do nothing and wait to see what happens next? I personally think the third option might be best, but I'm not ready to make a final say quite yet."
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto von Biggleswarpski asks if there is a queue to the loo, and starts singing "queue to the loo" to the tune "skip to my loo", The feather boa constrictor wraps more tightly around his neck.
♫ Alamen left, queue to the loo,
Alamen right, queue to the loo.... ♪
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alban:
I think Zapaterietxe doesn't like it very much when Hophtrig talks. I don't really understand why.
I believe that the consensus opinion is that there's only so much air on this ship and you're sucking up most of it with your blabber. Not that this bothers all of us, but I have an imperative born of duty to keep us alive.
What's more, there's a good chance that, if you were possessed, we couldn't tell; would there really be a difference between a lapse in logic and your usual blather? If anything, a useful, clear, or logical thought coming out of you would probably get you thrown into the Void as entirely inconsistent! While I'm not nominating you for a flushing, I am nominating you for being the recipient of my colleague's first project in condensed matter engineering—a set of manacles and an antinoise emitter, all done up in a rather fetching shade of red.
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
:
First off, Lesley marvels at her luck at not being designated "the annoying one," although she recognizes the competition has left her in the dust.
She thinks she needs to see more people-- behaving to come to her own conclusions. Although Graffin Ikebana Whatziznuts seems to have a intriguing need to control things.
I personally think the third option might be best, but I'm not ready to make a final say quite yet.
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on
:
As the lights came on again, the shape of Reppik Tew began flickering. Not obviously, or obtrusively, especially if you looked straight at him. More like the slightly dodgy lamp on your co-worker's desk that he doesn't notice, but annoys you at the corner of your vision.
As he flickered, he changed. His height lessened, his sharp edges rounded, and his outer layer took more of a natural look, less metallic. His face now looked like it had been sculpted by a competent artist.
The flickering stopped. A voice filled everyone's thoughts:
"I apologise if my early appearance was threatening. I have ........re-calibrated. Rest assured you have my full co-operation towards a mutually acceptable resolution of our current predicament. I shall provide assistance towards your sense of well being"
Each person seemed to hear a gurgle, a hiss, a click anf the sound of liquid being poured. No liquid was to be seen, or tasted, but all passengers now felt like one does after drinking a particularly good cup tea.
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
Or do we do nothing and wait to see what happens next?.."
Ja'ayem was really unsure about the whole first move lynch/don't lynch thing.
I have a faint suspicion that it depends on the number of people, and whether it's odd or even, as it's the moves at the end where it's close and a small change in numbers makes a big difference.
But then Unbrites were well named.
Also he wondered, didn't the voice say there was 4 mafia?
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Kelly Alves:
Although Graffin Ikebana Whatziznuts seems to have a intriguing need to control things.
Oh trust me. Pavian nobility are about the worst clients ever, especially those with Something to Prove. The pay may be good, but half of it gets eaten up in petty redesigns ("what do you mean you induced a permanent increase to the localized Van der Waals forces to suspend my ten-story high portrait of myself? I demand solid gold nails! I don't care that the walls don't hold nails because of some "incompatibility of matter to form," change the definition of form! You're an angel, aren't you people able to warp reality itself?"), the other half in bribes to various authorities who weren't really anticipating those kinds of exceptions to the very formalized and extremely detailed local building code, and the third half evaporates when they mysteriously run out of cash and skip town to some unlisted backwater system, leaving you holding the bag…which happened to contain their collection of exotic contraband. I may have escaped that whole mess only because their Code of Criminal Procedure for Those Accused of Crimes Against the Nobility of Less Than Eight and a Half Generations Standing and of Greater Than Margraval Rank was so overdetermined as to exclude beings without planets of origin or determinate material (good luck filling out those booking forms!), but dealing with their bureaucracy and need for Control was probably worse than whatever punishment they could have devised.
Never. Again.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
Ja'ayem,
quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
The only people who may pm or email or otherwise privately communicate information about the game to each other are the three ordinary mafia members.
[ 01. March 2014, 15:54: Message edited by: Ariston ]
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
:
Listen, Zapaterietxe, I am guessing that among your many other weirdnesses you are a telepath, but if you are going to break in on my internal monologue like that could you at least formally introduce yourself?
♫ Alamen left, queue to the loo,
Alamen right, queue to the loo.... ♪
THE POWER OF CHRIST COMPELS YOU!
[ 01. March 2014, 16:13: Message edited by: Kelly Alves ]
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
Ja'ayem,
quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
The only people who may pm or email or otherwise privately communicate information about the game to each other are the three ordinary mafia members.
Oh, that's good to know, we can make one more mistake than I thought. But I was sure I heard four mentioned, ah
quote:
We would like to reassure you that there are no entities on Dimthing capable of entering the bus, possessing four of your fellow passengers, and murdering the driver while the lights were out. Therefore that has not just happened. Nor are they planning to kill you one by one either.
[ 01. March 2014, 16:25: Message edited by: Jay-Emm ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
"Right, my good fellow. Three possessed and one sympathizer who knows who they are but is not known to them. The sympathizer wins if the mafia wins, but the sympathizer cannot have any say in who is possessed and killed next. Ideally, we find and remove the three possessed, not worrying too much about the sympathizer.
"As far as having thoughts read: I think the ship's computer is doing that, in order to save a record of what all happens here. It's creepy, like being a character in a story with an all-knowing narrator. Try not to freak out about it, though, and don't think anything you don't want broadcast to the others."
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Kelly Alves:
Listen, Zapaterietxe, I am guessing that among your many other weirdnesses you are a telepath, but if you are going to break in on my internal monologue like that could you at least formally introduce yourself?
Internal? I don't know how to say this more politely, but I'm afraid your internal monologue has been very external for a while. That sotto voce thing you do? I think it's a little less quiet than you think it is.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig has seen a lot of the universe while hosting his show on holovision. Hophtrig has met a few mindreaders in his time, and Hophtrig knows that the way of those who can detect the nasty icky thoughts in someone's head is that they're either completely right or completely wrong. Hophtrig knows that if someone hops off the bus, it will show the truth about that being. Hophtrig wonders; if Hophtrig and his friends form a consensus on who will be hopping off the bus the second day, then the two on here who think they have the ability to detect icky nasty thoughts in peoples minds might be able to try and read the mind of the being who is leaving when the lights are out and the bus quiet and peaceful, before the second day comes. Then on the second day, the beings could know if they're completely right about those icky thoughts, or completely wrong.
Hophtrig wonders if his friends might ask him to leave the bus on the second day. Hophtrig knows this would be good for Hophtrig's friends, because then two people would know for sure if they can detect the inward motivation of others. But Hophtrig thinks it might not be all that good for Hophtrig. Hophtrig is a little frightened, and when Hophtrig's scared, he likes a hug and a hot cocoa. Choey, please may Hophtrig have a hug and a hot cocoa, please.
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
Ja'ayem was awed by the nobility of the little presenters gesture and very much moved. Giving your life that others may live was of course the Unbrite way, but those others were always in a way themselves, death for any other reason was shameful.
That said he wondered that if carried out it would cost the life of ~2 innocents for only the knowledge of (in)competence.
He was also well aware that actors, were well, actors. But did that apply to Child Renspres Entors. He wouldn't think he'd support eviction on this basis, but he wouldn't assume innocence either.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey had no idea what was going to happen next, but the funny Hophtrig fellow suddenly looked frightened. She patted the seat next to her and offered him a cup of hot chocolate with pink marshmallow clouds floating in it. She hoped it didn't look too much like the glowing radiation clouds floating past outside. He drank it quickly, leaving him with a pink marshmallow moustache.
Her species was alarmed easily, but eating and drinking helped to settle that alarm quickly. As a choice of action, it was always the first thing she did. She supposed there were others who worked that way too, although curiously, she did not feel as unsettled as she might have done in such circumstances. Perhaps then, it was simply time for a snack.
Choey pulled out a block of the best Parvian dark green chocolate, and offered it around too.
Posted by Starbug (# 15917) on
:
'Lucy' accepted the chocolate with a nod of thanks. So everyone could hear her thoughts from the moment she stepped on this infernal bus? Then there was no point in further subterfuge.
'I am Lady Celandine Diamante De Cooperhoop and I have absconded with a miniscule proportion of my father's fortune', she said in her normal aristocratic tones. 'But you all knew that anyway.'
She sat back and waited to see what happened next.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
If you wish to make a nomination, could you make it in bold please so that I don't miss it?
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
"I move we do nothing yet. Let's see what the situation looks like tomorrow."
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
quote:
Originally posted by Kelly Alves:
Listen, Zapaterietxe, I am guessing that among your many other weirdnesses you are a telepath, but if you are going to break in on my internal monologue like that could you at least formally introduce yourself?
Internal? I don't know how to say this more politely, but I'm afraid your internal monologue has been very external for a while. That sotto voce thing you do? I think it's a little less quiet than you think it is.
[Out of character] I disbelieve.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig thinks the friends on the bus need to decide now who Hophtrig and his friends are going to ask to get off tomorrow. Hophtrig thinks this will mean that both the mindreaders can investigate that person when the lights go out, and the mindreaders will know if they believe the being is naughty or nice when it climbs off and the universe shows the truth.
Then the detectives would know how well they can read minds, and they could tell all their friends on the bus about themselves. If a detective catches someone naughty, the naughty person would go off, and if that was a lie, then the being who said they were naughty is not our friend, and will need to leave the next day. Maybe someone will be able to watch over the health of one of the detectives each night - to make sure nothing nasty happens.
That's what Hophtrig thinks. And thank you so much for the hot chocolate AND the cold chocolate Choey. How did you know Hophtrig Loves marshmallows? Hophtrig feels much better now!
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
So, time to crunch some numbers. Our detective will come up with the following readings on each of us, as of right now:
3 murderous Possessed goons (one of whom is merely misguided, and counts for us)
2 unreadable (with a 50/50 chance of it being one of the Possessed)
9 innocents, including their counterpart and a doctor
1 detective, who is a known innocent.
Inspector Clouseau will, naturally enough, come up with 3 innocents, 2 blanks, and 9 evil goons.
Now, while in principle, I think it a good idea to vote early, and vote often, the chances of offing a detective or doctor is just as high as evicting a nogoodnick—except for the goons themselves, who probably aren't going to want to kill themselves. So we're in a conundrum; while there's a not very good chance we could nail one of the Possessed, there's a greater chance (since the Possessed possess knowledge and an ability to strategize we don't) that we end up expelling an ally—or even someone who can help us. While an expulsion would give us some information, it would also probably put us in an even worse situation.
Now, it's a virtual certainty that the Possessed are going to off someone at some time during the coming night, and that their victim isn't going to have interests aligned with theirs. However, a death at their hands does still give us information—and, if we don't knock off one of our own first, we get both information and a one-person bonus over them. The things that we lose, however, is the information about our own thoughts and preferences that nomination and voting would give us.
So here's what I propose: rather than having a risky first round of nominations and voting, I suggest we have a non-binding, non-lethal discussion of everybody's top three choices to go out the front door. Ideally, we'd each give reasons for each of these choices—to know what everybody thinks and why might be as valuable as who they think has something to hide. More choices, more information, more to work with later.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
Alright, I proposed this idea, so it's only fair and just that I be the first to stick my neck out:
1. Cho Bacca Loriette may be the person whom, if she's been Possessed, is most dangerous to us. Not only does she have a bit of a happy-go-lucky naïf exterior, she also has an alliance going with Hophtrig—perhaps the being who most reciprocates his offers of friendship. So, in addition to having someone who gives her cover in votes—or perhaps follows her patterns, if she votes first—she also has someone who will play the fool on her behalf, someone to blather on and distract us from her mistakes. Why pick her, rather than the blithering idiot who keeps escaping from every attempt I make to stop his nonsense? Simple. We're all paying attention to him. If he slips up, someone will catch it, but if she drops something, chances are it'll get drowned in his words.
2. Next is someone we might overlook—no, not anyone in particular, just someone who's neither making a show of themselves nor being unusually quiet. That grey little shadow in on wall, overlooked between the light and the darkness, someone doing a perfect job of drawing no attention to themselves. Normally I'd say Crimson would be a good candidate for this slot—really now, how much would you trust a too-clever-by-half shapeshifter—but I think she's occupied with some advanced techniques I showed her in aetheric architecture. No, I'm wondering who I would least notice, least suspect, and thus most need someone with special abilities to look into…someone like, say, John? An unknown quantity, I think, who gives us nothing to either suspect nor exonerate him.
3. You thought I was going to be the first to push Hophtrig out the door, didn't you? But no, the creature has found a way to make himself much less annoying (no, please, do not try to hug me), has drawn far too much attention to himself already to fly unnoticed under the radar, and seems to have taken a fair shock from recent events. A bit of seriousness and fear seems to have done him good. Perhaps, just maybe, it will make him less of a cover for Choey later—and, while I wouldn't underestimate him, maybe I won't fling him bodily through the nearest opening. Still, keep him on the other side of this bus from me if you would, please?
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
Seems a reasonable idea and no-ones opposed it yet. There seem to be 3 groups of people so I'll pick one from each
There have been some who've been totally silent since the event. One of these is Ios (I think), the others Crimson&Codine.
Granted it's the day of rest so they may not have woken up to the horror we're facing. But even if we don't hang people for the encouragement of others, we can at least prod them. Of course if they speak then everything will have changed.
Others have spoken and expressed their fear but proposed nothing about it, one of these is Lucy/LCDDC. We don't really have much to go on, so she's probably being quite rational. But got to start somewhere so lets see the Countess under a little pressure.
Then others who've suggested something.
Zapa suggested this, and as I don't disagree. So it would be a bit hypocritical.
Then there's Hophtrig's noble, but I don't think useful proposed sacrifice, he could be relying on us not taking it up, but I can't hang him for that.
Graffin suggested the rules. They make a lot of sense and (like Crimson) he's got a reputation for wisdom but also for deception.
Reppik pointed out my confusion over the mafia numbers. While I suppose that's a reason to hate, it would be a bit petty.
And, I'm me. I'd not going to vote to end my line, I want babies first (well simultaneously).
So for the third it has to be Graffin
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
Reppik pointed out my confusion over the mafia numbers. While I suppose that's a reason to hate, it would be a bit petty.
More flickering. Reppik grew in size and his edges hardened. A stern voice filled everyone's heads, but seemed to invade Ja'ayem's slightly more
"I WILL NOT BE FALSELY ACCUSED. I HAVE OFFERED NO CORRECTION OTHER THAN THIS ONE TO TELL YOU IT WAS NOT ME"
again the flickering, and Reppik softened again, perhaps appearing even more human than before.
"I have simply offered cooperation and succour. I am yet to provide the result of my reasoning and logical calculations, which are currently in progress. Please wait"
and with that, his face was somehow replaced with an animated clock with 3 moving hands, one of which was moving counter clockwise
[ 02. March 2014, 16:13: Message edited by: Wet Kipper ]
Posted by Starbug (# 15917) on
:
On the grounds that she does nothing more than repeat other people's words (and therefore, we know nothing about her), my first nomination is Lesley .
As there is only enough room in this dreadful bus for one aristocrat and, obviously, that's me, my next vote is for Griffin .
Thirdly, while he may have made himself almost too conspicuous, I believe this may be a double-bluff to avoid suspicion. Therefore, Hophtrig is my third choice (yes, I am only too aware of his real name, due to his total over-exposure on my holoset).
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
It was this ability to read something, then scroll down to check something else, then assume you scrolled past only one post that meant the Unbrites were well named.
IOW mea culpra (I've messed up) [x post]
[ 02. March 2014, 17:13: Message edited by: Jay-Emm ]
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
:
Lesley is suspicious of people who try to conduct other people's behavior-- what is he steering us toward? --therefore Griffin tops her list of sketchiness.
However, her learned (though backstabbing) co-traveller has a point about Hophtrig. All the over the top friendly is a good cover for a devious plan.
Not solid on a third, but if she must, Lesley would ask herself why Choey is so intent on handing out food to people. She watches with interest to see if anyone keels over.
[ 02. March 2014, 17:46: Message edited by: Kelly Alves ]
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
So here's what I propose: rather than having a risky first round of nominations and voting, I suggest we have a non-binding, non-lethal discussion of everybody's top three choices to go out the front door. Ideally, we'd each give reasons for each of these choices—to know what everybody thinks and why might be as valuable as who they think has something to hide. More choices, more information, more to work with later.
I think I vould like to see how everyvun actually votes, ven death is on ze line, rather zan just have ze discussion. But ze discussion is a good idea, und I vill join it.
My first und second suspicion is Joostein Käse und Codine , as zey have yet to speak, und ze rule is everyvun must speak. It is a good rule. Und vot is ze point of having ze rule, if ve do not keep it?
If vun of zem speaks, und ze other does not, I vill nominate ze silent vun. Zat is mostly to encourage people to speak as zat is ze only vay ve vill find ze enemy if ze detectives break ze rules und die.
Zere are others who have not spoken either but I vould not vish zem to die on ze first day.
Next und third I suspect John. Ze reason is zat he suggested nominating somevun vithout vishing to take responsibility for ze idea. It might be a mistake to nominate Hophtrig, but not vun vich breaks ze rules, so zere is no reason, if he vants to kill Hophtrig he should not just nominate him. Ze innocent cannot afford to be too careful to look innocent, as zey have killers to find. But looking innocent is ze killers main concern. I zink John looks like somevun trying to look innocent. I vould have nominated John for zat, und I vill unless vun of Joostein und Codine continue to break ze rules, or if zis discussion changes my mind.
If both my first two choices begin to obey ze rules, und you vant two more to replace zem, I vould next suspect Otto because he has spoken but only to sing zat stupid song, and said nothing to help us. Und close after him, Reppik und Daisy, who have also said nothing vich helps, but not qvite as stupid as Otto.
I vish I could say Lesley is suspicious, because I think it foolish to put me first on ze list at ze start. Zis is because an experienced und verbose passenger is no more likely to be guilty zan ze others, but is more likely to be useful if innocent und to be investigated und found out if guilty. So zat vas against ze rule to be logical. But I think zat Lesley has a grudge against me for some reason, und I do not think it proof of guilt. But I vish it vas.
I vould have liked to have put Lady Celandine on ze list, but I confess zat is mostly from personal malice. I also think zat a proper aristocrat vould know zat Grafinn is a title und not a name, und vould spell it correctly, but even if she is not who she says she is, zat does not prove she is possessed.
Cho Bacca Loriette has chocolate. She should stay. Also, she is keeping ze rules.
Crimson und Ios are both intelligent entities. But zey are breaking ze rule zat everyvun must speak. I think zey vill be useful, so I vould not vant to lose zem today. Zey are too much vorth listening to.
Zapaterietxe und Ja'ayem are both discussing ze situation vith attention und thought, und ve vould be foolish to try to kill zem. If either is guilty zey vill not be able to maintain zis level of helpfulness und ve vill see zat.
Hophtrig I think is innocent. If he vere guilty, he vould have known somevun vould vant to get rid of him for being annoying. Und he vould have changed, even a little from ze vay he acted before ze entitties came on board. But he has not. Even ven he is saying something zat is helpful. It is as if he does not care. I do not think ze intruders vould not care.
Grafinn Ekatarina Eliabulon I know to be innocent. Because she is me.
Zat is everyvun, und vat I think of zem. Zis discussion is good.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Come here, Reppik, have a hug. Hophtrig is your friend, so s everyone else on the bus, we're all friends here, no-one's accusing anyone of anything. Hophtrig knows some people have been taken over by something nasty, and they'll have to hop off, but even if it were, it's not your fauly. There, there, Reppik, we know you're a good friend.
Hophtrig still thinks it's a good idea to decide in advance who will hop off on the second day. Maybe we could choose the being who the most of the friends choose. Then the people who think they can read minds can test their abilities overnight. Hophtrig notices that Hophtrig and Graffin are the most popular so far. Would Graffin like a hug?
Choey and John the less have been offering food. Hophtrig likes food, so Hophtrig thinks these are nice beings and really hopes nothing nasty has invaded them.
But Hophtrig doesn't really know some of Hophtrig's friends all that well.
Crimson seems to have been hovering around the place, not saying much. Hopefully she doesn't need too much air to survive, and could have some fun on the planet Dimthing, so maybe we should ask her to visit it?
John seems to have sat down, found his feather boa constrictor and been very quiet. Hophtrig loves to talk, and when someone doesn't make any noise for a while, Hophtrig gets very suspicious and a little bit scared, he learnt this from working with children for all these years.
Lovely Lesley has been teaching me a lot about my friends, but not too much about Lovely Lesley. And she thought to herself
quote:
Oh Dear God, I am ready to throw my OWN self out of the emergency exit.
so maybe we should take up that offer?
I am sorry to my friends who I suggested we could ask to hop off, I know if something nasty has happened to you, it's not your fault. If anyone needs a hug, Hophtrig is your friend.
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on
:
Crimson comes out of energy saving mode. With an IQ of well over 6000, it figures it can afford to spend a bit of it thinking over the problem.
Annoying though Hophtrig is, his plan sounds quite useful. OTOH, the fact that he's suggested it means that he's almost certainly innocent (unless it's a colossal bluff), so possibly the detective would be better off getting information about someone else. Also it adds up to a wasted lynch (we're doing away with an innocent when we could be after someone guilty) which gives the killers a free hit.
Essentially the detectively ones need to make a priority of staying alive (as far as possible) and gather as much information as possible, but not do anything with it until someone ends up dead, at which point they will know whether they are gathering true or spurious information. Unfortunately, chances are someone's bound to end up at some point and depending how far in we are at that stage, it may well be worth declaring so that the other one also knows the status of information received (i.e. on the third day, if both investigators are still alive and provided they haven't been investigating the same people, they may have gathered enough information between them to make the innocent unassailable).
However - and I know this goes against my usual policy - I'm not sure it's worth throwing anyone off the bus so early on. No information gathering has gone on so far and we are more likely to hit an innocent than not. I think we should maybe hold off the killing until it's a bit more useful.
Note to our detecting friends: if you get a guilty message first time round, be suspicious. Either you have been very lucky, or there is something wrong with the information you are receiving.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
[Out of character] Sorry I'm late to the party; real life is happening at the mo. I may get a chance to actually respond this evening (US time), but it will likely be in the morning. [/Out of character]
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey munched on a piece of banana bread thoughtfully. It seemed that some beings didn't like dumb animals, and some people didn't like food - particularly the angelic man. Perhaps he had a galactic grudge against Roopoo Power - many smaller companies had disappeared because they could not compete but Choey herself was innocent and not part of any takeover group.
Accusations were beginning to fly around the bus. She didn't think it fair to make any decisions until everyone had spoken, and she wanted to hear from the quiet ones, especially Otto, Codine and Daisy. Anyway, the most important question of all wasn't even being asked - Did anyone here know how to drive this vehicle?
[ 02. March 2014, 20:12: Message edited by: Banner Lady ]
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Oh, don't be worried Choey, you can be anything you want to be if you just believe in yourself. Hophtrig believes in Hophtrig, so Hophtrig can be the bus driver!
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
Annoying though Hophtrig is, his plan sounds quite useful.
Ze plan is insane! Hophtrig is suggesting zat both ze detective und ze inspector test zeir abilities by investigating ze same person, who ve zen kill. So all ve learn from ze day is vich of zem is vich.
Und zat, ve vill find out soon enough anyvay. Ve do not need to vaste two investigations to discover zis.
quote:
Essentially the detectively ones need to make a priority of staying alive (as far as possible) and gather as much information as possible, but not do anything with it until someone ends up dead, at which point they will know whether they are gathering true or spurious information.
Zat is true. Zat is vy zis is a rule.
quote:
However - and I know this goes against my usual policy - I'm not sure it's worth throwing anyone off the bus so early on. No information gathering has gone on so far and we are more likely to hit an innocent than not. I think we should maybe hold off the killing until it's a bit more useful.
If I vas sure zat ze investigators vill obey rule 4 zen I vould agree. Ve gain two checks every night against vun death, und zat is a reason to have as many nights as ve can.
But ze risk is zat if ze investigators die before zey tell us vat zey know, und zey might, ve have let ze kilers act vithout acting ourselves. Und ve vill feel foolish if ve do zat.
quote:
Note to our detecting friends: if you get a guilty message first time round, be suspicious. Either you have been very lucky, or there is something wrong with the information you are receiving.
Zis is true, too.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
John (the less) stood up to speak:
First I would like to remind everyone just how subjective this has all been so far. As I've heard each one's contribution, I've noticed something odd: It seems that no matter how a person acts, it makes someone else think they're guilty. That being talks too much, that means they're guilty. That being talks too little, so they must be guilty. That person is trying not to talk too much or too little, so they're trying too hard to seem innocent -- and therefore guilty. This one suggested we throw someone off, so they're obviously guilty. This one suggested we don't throw anyone off yet, so they're guilty. See where I'm going with this? We don't have evidence at the moment, so we're left with either sitting back a bit and watching to see what happens, or else killing someone based on what -- subjective ideas about what makes one guilty or innocent. Let me also remind you that at this point the odds of kicking off an innocent are 12 in 15. Math isn't my strong point, but I make that as being an 80% chance of picking the wrong one.
Second. If I may quote Grafinn Ekatarina Eliabulon:
quote:
Next und third I suspect John. Ze reason is zat he suggested nominating somevun vithout vishing to take responsibility for ze idea. It might be a mistake to nominate Hophtrig, but not vun vich breaks ze rules, so zere is no reason, if he vants to kill Hophtrig he should not just nominate him. Ze innocent cannot afford to be too careful to look innocent, as zey have killers to find. But looking innocent is ze killers main concern. I zink John looks like somevun trying to look innocent. I vould have nominated John for zat, und I vill unless vun of Joostein und Codine continue to break ze rules, or if zis discussion changes my mind.
Pardon me, but I did not suggest that we nominate "somevun vithout vishing to take responsibility for ze idea." In fact, I'm confused about how you came to that conclusion, since it's the opposite of what I actually said. I simply stated we had three options. We still have those three options. The bit about tossing Hophtrig out was a throwaway line meant to point out how aggravating he was being before the bus left. I then stated that I supported the third option, which was to do nothing at the moment. Like I said a moment ago, putting someone out now has a 12 in 15 chance of being wrong. I said a bit later that I still don't think we should put anyone out today. So I specifically did NOT suggest we nominate someone. This idea of talking is a good one, because it's the closest thing to evidence we have at the moment. Throwing someone off right now is, to be quite honest, dumb. We need to let the detectives do their work.
Grafinn Ekatarina Eliabulon also said,
quote:
Hophtrig I think is innocent. If he vere guilty, he vould have known somevun vould vant to get rid of him for being annoying. Und he vould have changed, even a little from ze vay he acted before ze entitties came on board. But he has not. Even ven he is saying something zat is helpful. It is as if he does not care. I do not think ze intruders vould not care.
This makes sense. I agree with this, up to a point. I think, however, that he has changed, slightly. Maybe it's that he's either possessed or is one of the detectives or something. Maybe he's just picking up on how annoyed some are with him and that he's in danger. I don't know. But I have detected that he's quieted down a bit since the bus crashed. It's subtle, but there. Take that for what you will. (Honestly, though, if the possessed are annoyed with him, they may off him, just to prove a point. Bless his heart.)
Of everyone who has spoken, Crimson and Zapaterietxe (and Ja'ayem) have made the most sense so far.
Third. My list of potential possessees:
In no particular order, they are Codine, Lesley, and Otto/John. Acknowledging this is all horribly subjective, those three are the three most mysterious, least inclined to talk, and least known. Lesley's habit of only repeating the last line of what anyone speaks doesn't give us much to go on. Codine is obviously hiding something with the layers of velvet and the bit about the master. Otto/John looks fabulous but doesn't say much at all.
And finally, to the possessed: Do your worst. Do your bleedin' worst! We will find you, and you will be brought to justice. I fart in your general direction!
That is all.
[Out of character] Ha! I already had a start on some of this, but then I caught a break and was able to finish. Sorry it's so long... can't help it.[/Out of character]
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
:
John's post is wise, considered, and reasonable.
Obviously he is up to something. [/i]
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
The bit about tossing Hophtrig out was a throwaway line meant to point out how aggravating he was being before the bus left. I then stated that I supported the third option, which was to do nothing at the moment. Like I said a moment ago, putting someone out now has a 12 in 15 chance of being wrong. I said a bit later that I still don't think we should put anyone out today. So I specifically did NOT suggest we nominate someone.
Ze planting of ze ideas vith ze 'throwavay line' is exactly vat guilty people do. Very often. Sometimes zey do it vith great skill, und sometimes zey do it clumsily, but zey do it. Und zen zey deny zat zey meant to suggest ze thing zat zey made ze rest of us think of. Like you did.
I am not certain zat you are guilty. It is easy to misread vun comment on ze first day. Especially as I do not know you und vat you usually say. Zat is vy I did not put you first, und vould enforce ze 'everyvun must speak' rule instead. I vill not exaggerate my reason for suspicion, but you are still ze only vun I have a positive reason to suspect so far.
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
:
I can't remember if this guy has extra hands, but again his habit of pointing fingers everywhere else really emphasises the number of fingers pointed back at him .
Need I say more?
[ 02. March 2014, 21:27: Message edited by: Kelly Alves ]
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Now how does Hophtrig do this?
If Hophtrig grabs the big wheel and turns it?...
Nothing happens. Let's think...
The busdriver presses the ignition and the bus goes brrm, brrm. Which button is the ignition? That one does nothing. That one... ooh, pretty lights, does anyone understand what "engaging primary warp drive" means?
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
:
God bless him, he does show initiative.
Lesley follows Hophtrig into cockpit and peers around him to see if she can figure out the steering console.
She rolls a d10 for her Navigation proficiency and gets a 2. She basically does not know what the hell she is looking at, except to note a button that says "On."
[ 03. March 2014, 00:01: Message edited by: Kelly Alves ]
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Thank you, Lovely Lesley, let's press that one, shall we?
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
:
(shakes her head wildly)
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
:
Why is it I suddenly worry I have set myself up to take the blame for whatever dumbshit thing Hoppy might decide to do?
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on
:
the clock was replaced by an even more human looking face, though anyone looking closely would have seen the message compitations complete _ _ _loading cultural references flash across Reppik Tew's forehead. His lips began to move, though it was no more than a crude series of open and shut,the rhythm matching that of the words which came directly to everyone's thoughts
Whilst the suggestion that we list 3 fellow travellers who arouse us the most...
Reppik's face flickered a pale red colour, then reset
Excuse me. Whilst the suggestion that we list 3 fellow travellers who arouse our suspisions the most is admirable - in terms of starting discussions and providing an insight into our thoughts - it fails my logic computations for a number of reasons:
1. The resultant tally of suspicions is more likely to show a mean level of suspicions across a higher number of candidates than if we each suggested one person
2. It further clouds later discussion and calculations when trying to track each person's ideas - this is not a concern for *my* computational abilities, but is unfair to those of lower processing power.
3. It permits the malevolent to include one of their own number within their choice of good/bad/ugly as a bluff or smokescreen, though this carries risk of said bluff being inadvertently taken up by others and turned into a nomination.
4. It lowers the requirement to stand by one's choices, were we to limit our initial suspicions to a single traveller.
5. It further increases the time spent before action is taken with actual nominations.
I agree there is merit in the opinions already provided, and not wishing to go against the course that many have so far taken, however, to abide by what I have just stated, I shall limit my discussions.
I am most suspicious of that which I cannot compute, usually due to insufficient information.
What currently_ _ _ _ confuses me most is the seemingly boundless energy of the being Hophtrig, and any non-corporeal entities.
I submit my thoughts for your use. If you will pardon me, I require a time of recuperation and energy restoration.
with that, Reppik's face cleared, except for what appeared to be 2 closed eyes. and a low thrum, a bit like low frequency tinnitus,and a lot like snoring, lodged itself gently in the lower reaches of everyone's minds
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Don't be afraid, Lovely Lesley, we're all wonderful friends on this bus, and we can do anything, if we believe in ourselves.
Hophtrig has seen lots of busdrivers driving a bus, it doesn't look all that hard. Hophtrig thinks he could try.
Hophtrig thinks the button labelled On might be a good way to start the bus! With Lovely Lesley beside Hophtrig, what could go wrong?
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
:
Thank God I don't have to copy his inflection.
What could go wrong??? What could go WRONG???
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
We'll never know until we try, will we Lovely Lesley. Here, let Hophtrig take your hand and we'll push it together, shall we?
You don't have to pull away so hard, Lovely Lesley, we can do it...
See. That wasn't so hard, was it? That's a funny noise. Does Hophtrig smell smoke?
If we smell smoke, what's the first thing we must do, boys and girls? That's right, tell a grownup. Lovely Lesley's a grownup, Hophtrig smells smoke, Lovely Lesley.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
Some more thoughts:
- It might behoove our psychic-types to keep a low profile for a bit; after all, there's two of them and only one person who can protect them; while playing the odds would suggest that after two nights (or three if they find one of the two of us immune to psionic investigation) they should be able to suss out with reasonable confidence whether or not they're getting positive or inverted results, if they both try to coordinate (given that they'd have to do it overtly), at least one of them's getting bumped off. Which makes me wonder about those who have suggested that the character-reading types share their lists with one another; as this would have to be done in front of all of us, it would expose one (or both) of them, which would mean that the other one would be vulnerable to the Possessed. If either of them makes it through the second or third night, they're both equally valuable to those of us trying to make it out alive. Therefore, it's to the advantage of the Possessed to draw out and take out at least one of them as soon as possible.
People who have advocated information sharing among detectives: Hophtrig
- Unorthodox and counterintuitive strategies: you know how you create an argument that can't be countered by any amount of logic or reason? Don't use logic or reason, use confusion and idiotic stupidity. You can't argue with stupid. Sure, unorthodox strategies might just give us the edge against an enemy that, being drawn from among us, is just as smart and capable as us. Keeping wit and the advantage of surprise on our side is our only hope. Of course, it's also theirs. So who's coming up with weird ideas that might be our salvation—or might be used to work an angle?
People cooking up weird ideas: Hophtrig (self-nominating? Voting someone off two days later, rather than today?), me
- Shitstirring: according to basic, oversimplified, and pop psychologized game theory, we have a better chance of making it through this alive if we cooperate than if we compete. How do you keep people from cooperating? Stir up factions, create dissent, cast doubt on those who seem to be cooking up dangerous ideas. If you can keep people suspicious of one another, they'll never suspect you.
Potential shitstirrers: Reppik Tew, Grafinn Eliabulon, Lesley
- Bullshitting: or, as my sister would describe it, having an extremely low signal-to-noise ratio. Who is saying lots, but contributing little? Who is voting only for people someone else has nominated and consensus seems to be turning against? Who is going to have the easiest time of concealing logical errors and lapses in judging probability behind pages of text and strange diction?
Full of static: Hophtrig (talkative, annoying prat, if a bit better now…whether or not that's because of Possession); Grafinn Eliabulon (but what else do you expect from a Pavian noble—it's completely in character); Lesley (strange speech tics; little strategizing despite lots of words; a set of three suspects who had each been nominated by two of the previous three voters—so no originality—but perhaps trying to establish a trend early
Well. I've certainly put an assumed foot (or feathered wing, for those of you who are more poetically inclined) into the fire here. It's hard to think of how I could have drawn a bigger bulls-eye on my behind unless I rearranged a few photons…what in the Unspeakable Name of the Transcendent Absolute is that smell? Excuse me for a moment, I think I have a rather pressing engineering problem to attend to up front.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Lots of messages, all with big words. Hophtrig is confused.
Critical core overheating imminent,
Warp drive full throttle
Disengage Parking brake before engaging thrusters
Fatal systems failure pending.
Don't Panic.
Hophtrig is a little frightened by all this.
Hophtrig is also a little worried Hophtrig's other ideas are being misunderstood. Hophtrig has proposed that we all decide who goes overboard tomorrow, not two days hence, then the mind readers can test their powers on that person tonight, without revealing themselves. Then tomorrow, when they know properly who they are, they can think about telling all their friends (or not, maybe). Hophtrig thought, with the way some of his friends have been talking, that they might be inclined to ask Hophtrig to leave the bus. Hophtrig didn't really mean to volunteer, just to say that he understood if this was their decision.
That smoke smell's getting stronger. Hophtrig's getting more scared, can he have a hug, Lovely Lesley?
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alban:
We'll never know until we try, will we Lovely Lesley. Here, let Hophtrig take your hand and we'll push it together, shall we?
You don't have to pull away so hard, Lovely Lesley, we can do it...
See. That wasn't so hard, was it? That's a funny noise. Does Hophtrig smell smoke?
If we smell smoke, what's the first thing we must do, boys and girls? That's right, tell a grownup. Lovely Lesley's a grownup, Hophtrig smells smoke, Lovely Lesley.
The smoke condensed into the form of a two-thumbed hand, then proceeded to smack both Hophtrig and Lesley soundly upside the head. If it was possible for a hand to glare, then this hand certainly was.
"What did you two THINK would happen? That things would just magically start working again, and we'd be on our way? Well, yes, of course you did, Hophtrig. But it didn't, and we aren't. So what did we learn today, girls and boys? That's right, don't go pressing strange buttons when we don't know what they do!"
"There. I've put out the fire you started when you activated the bus's security system. Lucky for you, it was shorted out in the accident, or else it would have been you that was smoking. Wouldn't you know it, but a big, valuable, and important piece of equipment like this has some safeguards on it to make sure nobody steals it! Unless your basic biometric data match the records stored in this ship exactly—and from what I can tell, there are only a few people, none of them you, who match those descriptions—you're not going to get very far with this craft. So you might want to leave it alone, especially now that I've fixed it."
"No I'm not just going to create a copy of the pilot or bypass the security system so that we can steal this bus, that would be unethical! What, you think that's trivial? You think that just because I'm a near-immortal being with unsurpassed control over the material universe I can transgress the laws set forth by the Absolute? You think those rules have exceptions because it's convenient for you?
"No, there aren't any rules against smacking sense into you with a bit of carefully directed wind. Nor talking hands. Nor cones of silence. Nor…look, I didn't make those manacles, nor did they actually do any lasting harm! So not my fault!"
"No, I…fine. Fine. Whatever. I'll admit, I did set you up perfectly for that 'talk to the hand' joke."
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
:
Lesley rubs her cheeks and wishes the phrase "I told you so!" had been worked into that speech somewhere...
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
:
Manacles?
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey sighed and put the fire extinguisher and air filter back into her pouch. It looked like they wouldn't need them after all.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
That's not very nice, Hophtrig and Lovely Lucy were just trying to get us out of here. Hophtrig thought we were stuck, and that was worrying Hophtrig's friend Choey, so Hophtrig thought he could help.
But Zapaterietxe doesn't want Hophtrig to help. What are we going to do now? Maybe there's some way to call for help. Lovely Lesley, do you see anything that looks like a communicator?
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
"You might look in the back of the bus, Hophtrig. I think I saw a big red button with a sign that said "Press To Talk" above it aaaaall the way in the very back, no, no, the very back"
Zapaterietxe quickly zipped through the wall and created just such a button and sign on the back wall—with the button wired to absolutely nothing at all. If you can't beat 'em, if you can't even understand 'em half the time, you can at least give 'em something harmless to play with.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Choey, no-one's talking back on this communicator. Hophtrig's going to keep on trying for a while, but if that doesn't work, he might need a Zardoc bit screwdriver from your pouch to open it up and try fixing it.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hello, hello?
No, nothing. Choey, can Hophtrig have a Zardoc bit screwdriver, please? So, what does everyone think? If Hophtrig takes off this panel, can we fix it?
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey reached into her pouch and pulled out a small case. She flicked a catch on it with her paw and it concertina'd out to show about 5,000 different tools. She hoped Hophtrig might find what he wanted in there.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Thank you so much Choey, can Hophrtig borrow the whole kit? Hophtrig thinks he might need to take the whole back wall off to get at the inside of the communicator. Does anyone want to help Hophtrig?
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Oh bother, dropped that screw.
Let's go screw hunting people!
Let's go hunt a screw
Your friend Hophtrig and you
If we've lost it, what'll we do
I think it fell down that vent
Oh well, we'll be more careful with the next one.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
All 87 screws holding the back wall panel removed, only 12 lost. Now Hophtrig wants to take off the panel. What tools could we use for that? Should it be a Crowbar, a hammer or a spirit level?
That's a good idea boys, girls and other. We'll use the crowbar...
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Joostein Käse loook oop froom poolish Bloont Oobjectimoom between buttoocks. Foolk tälk oof whät too doo. Äs if troost Bloont Oobjectimoom wielder noot enoof. Oother foolk demänd listen too, Joostein noot cäre mooch foor sooch politrookery. "Never säy änything noot loogicäl!" "Älwäys listen too me!" Äs if loogics be Kärl Joohan oon 17th Mäy, oone wäy oonly. Äs if rooles be noot oopen too mäny int... in... inpreternäminätioons. Äs if foolk doo noot woork däy änd night too doo soo in woord ploondering in coourt hoouse. Ræsoon be ä loovesick säiloor gooings froom poort too poort. But too æch oown hoompfriend. Joostein noot intoo slender sländer oof "this be moost loogicäl - yoou noot ägree soo intoo lävä foor yoou!" Tälkings be good boot rooles be dumb.
Due too läws oof Dimthing näture, oon boos be mäny evil foolk. Älsoo be three goood foolk. Älmoost even, soo blootfest sooon kill goood foolk oor revæl whooings is. If mäny, mäny, mäny, three foolks noow, äfter twoo nights mäny, mäny, mäny, one foolks left. When mäny, mäny foolk left ploonder cän begin if noo evil oones dæd. Hoowever, oonless evil foolk be very lucky, äfter three nights shoould knoowings læest mäny too mäny-oone foolkses näture. Given coountings, best too wäit, boot tälking. Oonly Swedish idioots kill noow. Goood think suggest list oof three persoons.
Joostein noot believe rooles, but believe joodging blookes froom oown strookes. Päviän's strookes be ooff expected pättern. Gräfinn Ekätärinä Eliäbooloon bræks oown rooles. Suggest "ve vil feel fooolish" unless doo äs she säys änd äct against ræson of säving goodies äs much äs poossible when thät rælly give ädv... ädvän... ädvänätägiumänce too oos. BIG sooch. Äct fooolish. Älso mooch bloober - tälking things noot helping, äsking in... ina... inoonanoonitootisoosisies äboout rooles änd pootting oop lists oof oobv... oob... oobviälensioous things like members. Noot poot up three candidates but mäny-two. Äct very sus... susp... like bäddie Päviän blooke woould, froom ooldest boook in the Trek. I noo... noom... noomininätitiäte Gräfinn Ekätärinä Eliäbooloon foor ooff-throowing änd ploondering and m... moot... moommietootioonäte ägäinst foormäl use oof loong soouthern woords in ooff... ooffi... oofooficoociälis proocess oon booärd boos. Gräfinn bræk mäny rooles, enoough too bræk roole oof keeping foolk älive, in hoomble vioo. Äll shoould coonsider.
Äpärt froom this, Joostein moost ädd twoo moore foolks too list.
2. Crimson - if soo gifted, why soo quiet? Änd äs Gräfinn pooint oout, Hoofdrig's plän sädly noot much good. Hoowever, Hoofdrig, Joostein sure Bloong Oobjectimoom help fix pänel. Pänel ræd "GNDN"? Whät be thät?
3. Codine - unheard oof. Äs is Oottoo.
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on
:
Er, have you forgotten something? You have a being on this bus with an IQ of 6000+. If you want to start the bus, you just turn this dial, program your destination and engage this lever. Simple, no?
I am unsure that quietness at this stage is proof of anything. If someone doesn’t want to appear suspicious, they need to behave the same as they always do. A smart entity will be able to do this even if they are guilty. They may just be asleep or something.
I’m still not sure whether anyone is looking lynch-worthy. I think there are better ways of getting information at this stage.
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
2. Crimson - if soo gifted, why soo quiet?
Crimson recharges its energy supplies over the weekend. It always goes a bit quiet then. Also if a being as intelligent as Crimson was a killer, it wouldn't be playing the "go quiet" strategy. It would talking exactly as much as it usually does, no more, no less. But Crimson is no killer.
[Edit: With an IQ of 6000, you would have thought Crimson would be able to spell.
]
[ 03. March 2014, 11:13: Message edited by: la vie en rouge ]
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
Dimthing Tours are pleased to say that your predicament has been noted. We are happy to announce that your bus's engine has been located fifteen metres away from your bus on a bearing of .43 rad. Access to the engine is impossible without exposure to x-tonic radiation, which wil be instantly lethal to all known sentient entities. We are doing everything possible to resolve your predicament consistent with our acceptable profit margin. Dimthing Tours disclaim all responsibility for the actions of malevolent possessing entities of unknown origin. Have a Nice Day.
Dimthing Tours would like to ask anybody making nominations for today to make them clear and unambiguous. You are free to put up lists of names for discussions among yourselves, but as far as the voting is concerned, one nomination per entity per day.
At the moment I believe I have No Lynching by John the Less (Barefoot Friar).
Did Joostein (JFH) actually nominate Grafinn Ekaterina (Eliab) or was he just listing her for discussion?
Posted by Starbug (# 15917) on
:
After much consideration, one also wishes to vote for No Lynching.
There appear to be a number of screws lying around the floor. One hopes someone is going to pick them up. *looks meaningfully at Hophtrig*
[ 03. March 2014, 12:18: Message edited by: Starbug ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
Did Joostein (JFH) actually nominate Grafinn Ekaterina (Eliab) or was he just listing her for discussion?
That's how I'm reading it. Joostein? Want to clarify?
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
quote:
Ooriginälly poosted by Däfyd:
Dimthing Toours äre pläæsed too säy thät yoour predicäment häs been nooted. We äre häppy too ännoounce thät yoour bus's engine häs been loocäted fifteen metres äwäy froom yoour bus oon ä bæring oof .43 räd. äccess too the engine is impoossible withoout expoosure too x-toonic rädiätioon, which wil be instäntly lethäl too äll knoown sentient entities. We äre dooing everything poossible too resoolve yoour predicäment coonsistent with oour äcceptäble proofit märgin. Dimthing Toours discläim äll respoonsibility foor the äctioons oof mälevoolent poossessing entities oof unknoown oorigin. Häve ä Nice Däy.
Hoofdrig, Joostein thinks yoou'd mäke græt engine retriever änd mäke mäny, mäny, mäny, twoo friends if yoou goo get engine. Heroo oof Dimthing, sooundings mooch fäncy.
quote:
Ooriginälly poosted by Däfyd:
Dimthing Toours woould like too äsk änyboody mäking noominätioons foor toodäy too mäke them clær änd unämbiguoous. Yoou äre free too put up lists oof nämes foor discussioons ämoong yoourselves, but äs fär äs the vooting is cooncerned, oone noominätioon per entity per däy.
ät the mooment I believe I häve Noo Lynching by Joohn the Less (Bärefooot Friär).
Did Joostein (JFH) äctuälly noominäte Gräfinn Ekäterinä (Eliäb) oor wäs he just listing her foor discussioon?
Joostein noom... noominoon... YES.
(Äs seen by boolding.)
Joostein think Gräfinn Ekätärinä Eliäbuloon evil, but noot sure if will voote for lynching yet. Still, noom... put oon list of off-boosable foolk. But Joostein älsoo hoope see moore foolk oon sooch list, too keep chooices.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Codine enters and bows. My apologies, for being absent. It was important to my master to keep up with his correspondence. A few rather important people had written him, and I helped him answer these. He has no interest, of course, in figuring out what is wrong with the ship. He says that is a job for menials. So I have returned to figure this out with you all.
I don't see much good in lynching anyone personally. After all, it's no good to judge anyone on anything that they said before they were possessed, and I just don't see that we have enough information to go on to waste killing a person with little verbal evidence, and none from any of our detective types.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto von Biggleswarpski enters, refrains from bowing, but curtsies. Then flourishes with the feather boa constrictor; the says that the FBC has suggested lynching would be nice and asks if lunch might be available at about the same time. So that's an agreement on that.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ios reviewed her memory bank of similar situations and discovered that she seemed to have been preprogrammed with a bucket of hopeless cynicism.
"I don't think it makes a blind bit of difference what we do; we'll never solve this thing by logic. We're probably all doomed, but I would hate to deprive someone of the chance to engage in a full day of banter and a full night of sleeplessly wondering if a spectral tentacle is about to tap oneself on the neck. And then everyone will get to enjoy at least one more day of baseless but increasingly panicked recriminations before we toss someone out the airlock."
She settled back in her seat and wondered how many more panels Hatrack could disassemble before blowing the whole bus to smithereens by accident.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Joostein, Hophtrig thinks you sound like a very helpful friend. There doesn't seem to be much of anything behind that panel, maybe your Bloont Objectimoom would be a better tool for finding out? Can you please help us find the communicator, and fix it.
And what was Joostein saying about Hophtrig, hero of Dimthing? Tell Hophtrig how Hophtrig can fetch the lost engine, and Hophtrig will do that while Joostein and his bloont objectimoom fixes the communicator. Here, Hophtrig will put my underwear on the outside of my trousers, so Hophtrig looks more like a hero, now what? Does anyone have a cape?
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey decided no lynching quite quickly. Lunching, on the other hand, was a great idea. She tucked a checked napkin into her sparkly collar ring, and pulled out a large bowl of steaming green aoli pasta. It smelled divine.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
Dimthing Tours would like to propose the following schedule.
8am UK time tomorrow (Tuesday): nominations close. Voting opens.
8pm UK time Friday: voting closes.
8am UK time Monday: night actions are resolved and announced. Nominations open.
And thereafter:
8pm UK Wednesday: nominations close. Voting opens.
8pm UK Friday: voting closes.
8am UK Monday: night actions resolved and announced. Nominations open.
Any entities who believe they will be unable to contribute appropriate night actions or votes under this schedule should inform Dimthing Tours in public or privately so that Dimthing Tours may attempt to accommodate their requirements.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
Gräfinn Ekätärinä Eliäbooloon bræks oown rooles.
[...]äct against ræson of säving goodies äs much äs poossible
[...]Älso mooch bloober - tälking things noot helping,
[...]Noot poot up three candidates but mäny-two.
You make ze fact zat I discussed my thoughts on everyvun, and not just three, a reason for suspicion? Zat is incomprehensible. Ve vant more speech, more opinion, more argument, not less. Zat is ze only data ve have to spot ze intruders if ze inspectors fail us. Und zey might.
Ze truth is zat if everyvun vere to speak as much and as openly as I do, ve (vell, I, but some others as vell) vould likely spot all ze killers vithin three days. Zere might be mistakes, but zen ve vould get zem, because it is difficult to be consistently misleading all ze time. Und you vant to discourage people from speaking? Zat is senseless.
Zen you say zat it is suspicious not to go vith ze plan of not nominating anybody. Und use zat as a reason to nominate somevun yourself? Do you not see ze contradiction zere?
I am not convinced zat ve should not evict somevun. I think zat is trusting too much in our investigators to solve ze puzzle for us. Ve do not have to be very unlucky for zat to fail. I vill be very happy, ven ze investigators have had ze chance to see vich of zem is vich, to look for vays in vich ve use zem to vin, but I do not think ve should do nothing until zat happens. If zey are killed before zey reveal zeir findings, vat do ve do zen?
If you agree vith zat, and think ve should kill vith good reason, zen your reason for nominating me vas untrue. If you do not agree vith zat, und think ve should not kill anyvun, zen you should obviously not be nominating anyvun. Und I think you are too experienced und clever to make such a mistake in ze thinking.
I am still suspicious of John, but I do not know him at all, so vile I think he is acting as a killer might, I am not as sure that he is acting as he might if guilty. But I have met other Käses in ze past, und I think zat your thinking is unvorthy of zem here. Codine, my other suspect, has broken her silence and so is now keeping ze rules. So I vill nominate Joostein Käse.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
John had spent a couple hours with his hood pulled down, thoughtfully pecking on his padd. He had been looking over records of previous, similar occurrences in Limbo and elsewhere. He discovered that the mafia seemed to win more than half of the time. Actually, by his count the mafia was 4-1, and that wasn't considering games that he couldn't find for whatever reason.
Obviously the normal way of doing things doesn't work too good too well.
"What if we reverse the question?" he asked the room. "If I recall correctly, not one mutineer walked the plank in the most recent game, despite so much time and talk being spent trying to figure out who was guilty. So let's change the equation. Let's figure out who is innocent, and work from there."
He thought a minute more. "Being the kind chap that I am, I'll go first. I've re-read the records from the accident to present, looking for inconsistencies and trying to read subtext. I think that Zapaterietxe is innocent. If he were possessed, he would be shooting himself and his compatriots in the foot by his arguments and reasoning. I've also come to think that Ja'ayem, Crimson, and probably Reppik Tew are innocent, for much the same reason. They've all had solid, logical arguments that (to my rookie eyes) look like bad news for the possessed. They also largely agree with each other and with me."
He paused a moment, then continued. "I'm not sure about Lady de Cooperhoop, Grafinn Eliabulon, Joostein, or Hophtrig, although I want to count them among the innocent. For now I will, unless they give me some reason not to. I had Eliabulon in the first category until her (his?) most recent post. I'm still trying to give the benefit of the doubt, though.
"I'm completely uncertain about the rest. They haven't given me enough to analyze yet."
John turned toward Grafinn Eliabulon. "I am sorry I have aroused your suspicions. I'm not trying to act innocent or guilty -- I'm innocent, so I'm just doing what comes naturally. This is the first time I've ever done anything like this. Well, except that party two years ago, where I was killed by the mafia on the first night. How can I show you I'm one of the good guys?"
He turned back to everyone else. "Let's not kick anyone out until we absolutely must. We all want to make it out of here alive, and lynching people randomly doesn't help anything. Heck, if anything it helps the possessed win all the faster."
With that, John sat down and pulled an oatmeal stout out of his bag. "Beer, anyone?"
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Wet Kipper:
Reppik's face flickered a pale red colour, then reset
Excuse me. Whilst the suggestion that we list 3 fellow travellers who arouse our suspisions the most is admirable - in terms of starting discussions and providing an insight into our thoughts - it fails my logic computations for a number of reasons:
1. The resultant tally of suspicions is more likely to show a mean level of suspicions across a higher number of candidates than if we each suggested one person
2. It further clouds later discussion and calculations when trying to track each person's ideas - this is not a concern for *my* computational abilities, but is unfair to those of lower processing power.
3. It permits the malevolent to include one of their own number within their choice of good/bad/ugly as a bluff or smokescreen, though this carries risk of said bluff being inadvertently taken up by others and turned into a nomination.
4. It lowers the requirement to stand by one's choices, were we to limit our initial suspicions to a single traveller.
5. It further increases the time spent before action is taken with actual nominations.
I agree there is merit in the opinions already provided, and not wishing to go against the course that many have so far taken, however, to abide by what I have just stated, I shall limit my discussions.
I am most suspicious of that which I cannot compute, usually due to insufficient information.
What currently_ _ _ _ confuses me most is the seemingly boundless energy of the being Hophtrig, and any non-corporeal entities.
I submit my thoughts for your use. If you will pardon me, I require a time of recuperation and energy restoration.
I agree, forcing someone to play their hand does give us a certain kind of information—but a different kind than a listing of three would give us. It's also true that it increases the amount of time and (potentially) confusion, as well as the amount of information we have to process, prior to nominations and voting—but the more time we can buy before nominating and voting, the better for the innocents, as it means we can spend more time discussing and analyzing, the Possessed more time bluffing, playing their hand, and risking errors. It's perhaps most true that it removes any need to stand by a blind conviction—a sort of "I have a hunch, it's only a hunch, but, by the Absolute, I'm sticking with it" doggedness that probably isn't going to do us much good at this point.
But, dare I say it, those aren't necessarily bad things at this point. Well, okay, confusion isn't a good thing, but, right now, we have the opportunity to sort through it. If there's a good time to have an information overload, it's right here at the start, when we have the time and the minds to parse it, and enough voices to drown out any sinister influences. Remember, according to the Jury Theorem, the chances of us coming to a correct conclusion, given a greater than 50% chance of each of us individually being right based on the evidence, increases the more of us there are. If we're going to come to a group decision, then, our best hope is to get as much information as possible out in the open while everybody's still alive and we can trust the wisdom of this crowd, rather than later when our pool of innocents is smaller, the number of those trying to break the votes are proportionally greater, even if our available evidence is greater.
I'll put it this way: right now, we have the greatest advantage in numbers over the Possessed. There are three of them, plus a sympathizer who knows who they are—so four people who have perfect knowledge of who has been taken, and are going to try to skew our overall vote accordingly. On our side of the ledger are eleven innocents, who, at the time of the incident, knew nothing. They have the advantage of knowledge; we have the advantage of numbers. As time goes on, our numerical advantage will decrease, but, we hope, our disadvantage of ignorance will decrease. While it can never equal their perfect knowledge, we can hope to learn and analyze whatever data we can collect to try and press our advantage while we still have it.
Of course, later we'll have to actually pick somebody to throw under the bus. We'll have to stick to the standard method of picking a person, then forming a plurality to off a certain nominated candidate. Right now, however, our need for information is more critical than our need to lynch anyone. Thus, I proposed an easy way to find out as much as we could, even from those who would normally be opposed to vigilante justice in a state of ignorance like the one we were in when the incident first happened. We can gather information under duress and enforced commitment later, but a more casual sharing of ideas and hunches, of trying to draw people out, of making accusations to hear responses and justifications, is best done now. What it all means, we can fully sort out later, as I expect we will.
The other advantage of this sort of "name three beings you find suspicious, and tell us why" is that it isn't binding on our cycle of nomination and voting. In other words, we've just gathered some of the information we would have had to normally gain during a vote, but without anyone voting for "no lynching" or nominating "nobody"—that is, without anybody hiding their suspicions—or, it should be noted, without wasting a chance to vote that would have been done entirely in the dark. I don't know if you've noticed, but we now have data, and are in a position to use it. Our first day's nominations and votes don't have to be done by pure guesswork.
So I say we take you up on your implicit suggestion to nominate someone in the usual way and vote for them like we would normally for the sake of gathering data. Let's have both an informal vote, done in a format the Possessed weren't expecting and thus would have had trouble planning for and coordinating a response to, and a formal one, that they weren't expecting us—or me, for that matter!—to actually press forward with. After all, we aren't completely in the dark now, are we?
To be honest, when I first thought to nominate someone, I thought Lesley looked most suspicious. A pattern of vacuous statements with a minimum of analysis of the matters at hand, coupled with a trio of votes that contained only names that had each been mentioned by two thirds of the previous voters—in other words, making no unique contributions, contributing to existing trends against likely innocents, and otherwise minimizing the amount of new information we could gather—coupled with very little justification for any of her three choices other than "because I think they're fishy" looks to me like someone trying to put on the appearance of actively engaging without actually revealing anything meaningful, and, at the same time, trying to suggest and enforce a trend in voting against certain people. Nothing like being the third person to vote against someone to turn a coincidence into a rule—especially when you can do it to three people at once.
Oh, and I noticed that the two people before her also voted for her. How convenient. When you're in a four-way tie for last place, move the three people you're with ahead of you in the "suspicious person" contest, creating a pattern in their disfavor, and away from you.
So don't get me wrong, I think she's very, very suspicious—and, judging by how everyone but me voted, both before and after her, I'm not alone—but I think there's someone who looks even worse.
That's right, Reppik Tew. I'm putting you in the dock. You're the only person who has suggested—in contravention to all standard procedures and logic—that we gather less information, that we stick only to conventional strategies that the Possessed are likely to plan for in advance, and that we spend less time talking, deliberating, and looking for errors before nominating and voting, especially when this deliberation could give us the information we need to make an informed vote before day's end. What's more, I notice that you stood up to speak against me only when the vote was going very much against Lesley—that is, when she was back in the lead at 4 votes to anyone else's 3. When her attempt to stop the pattern that might have been developing against her failed (along with her attempt to suggest a counterpattern that might have taken suspicion off of her in favor of one of three others), you stepped in to argue against the form of non-binding voting that was going against your cohort. Call me paranoid, but that sounds like shitstirring to me. Furthermore, I'm picking up a low signal-to-noise ratio; of the three statements you've made since the incident, one was the statement in question, another was to apologize for your earlier form, and the third was to explicitly dismiss the idea that you had contributed something to the discussion.
Shitstirring, bullshitting, vote manipulation, circumstantial evidence of collusion with a suspected Possessed, and information suppression: that's five reasons to suspect you. You may be only a sympathizer—I've heard rumors of a strange cult that reveres the Possessors of Nature, and it would explain why you'd be eager to take the heat off of Lesley, even if you weren't Possessed yourself—but I think you should stand accused.
Come now. It was you yourself who suggested that the standard way of nominating and voting offered better information and fewer ways for the Possessed to hide than naming the three you naïvely suspected most. Don't be so glum.
[ 04. March 2014, 02:23: Message edited by: Ariston ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
"Zapa, that's a good point about Reppik. I had missed that earlier in my assessment, because he had seemed to be agreeing with you, at least at first.
"I think I'm going to downgrade him to 'unknown'. I'm also going to go back and re-analyze his input."
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Yep, I made a mistake in my previous post. Reppik Tew hasn't agreed with anything Zapaterietxe has said. I must have confused him with Ja'ayem this morning.
I still maintain that Ja'ayem and probably Crimson are innocent, along with possibly Eliabulon, Hophtrig, and maybe de Cooperhoop and Joostein.
That's all subject to change as new info comes in, though.
I'm still very, very curious about Lesley, Daisy, and Otto. Lesley has been around, but hasn't said much. Otto breezed through and either skimmed the thread or simply ignored it and just posted that lynching someone was a good idea. Daisy has been pretty well silent. I've put those three on my probable list, at least for the time being.
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on
:
Reppik Tew's "face" turned as if to look at Zapaterietxe directly, though his voice was in everyone's thoughts
I admire you computational abilities in your deconstruction of my logical arguments, and i look forward to your theorum on the similarly long points which others have made. Learning is a sign of intelligence, and so i shall prove mine by learning from you.
However, know this: i am a pan-dimesional being, existing both here and elsewhere. This allows me to spend longer "there" to perform calculations with seemingly instantaneous results "here". Unfortunately the temporal cycles can catch each other and even swap polarities, and as such the results become "late" compared to the activities present. So please do not place too much emphasis on the timing of my announcements. Why even now as this statement is prepared "there", others may have already moved the discussion futher "here"
I shall show you that i agree with your argument, in terms of nominating but one person, but disagree with the foundation upon which you have nominated me.
I nominate Lesley
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
Here, let this omniform, sempiternal, and pluripotent being of pure intelligence complete your sentence for you:
quote:
Originally posted by Wet Kipper:
I nominate Lesley
"…as a calculated bluff that will split the vote and take the heat off of me when she's found guilty." Or perhaps you're a member of the Cult of the Possessors of Nature, who thus knows that Leslie is Possessed, even if you are not. Or perhaps I'm wrong about Leslie, right about you, and you think that the strongest point in my argument is in associating you with Leslie, and not in showing how you've tried to suppress information.
Consider your bluff called, planeshifter.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
Oh, and Hophtrig, just so you know: force reveals the latency of force in its reflexive and spontaneous activity. I would strongly suggest not using the Bloont on that very heavily reinforced and absolutely unyielding wall panel unless you really and truly want to experience an inversion of your world. It could end…very, very badly for you, depending on how much enthu…okay, it will end badly. Just don't take a running start at it first, like I see you're doing.
Oh dear.
I wish being able to see this coming made it any less sad.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Don't worry Zapaterietxe, Hophtrig is not quite silly enough to try borrowing the bloont objectimoom from Joosten, he seems to like it a lot, and Hophtrig doesn't think he'll share nicely. Joostein can dismantle the wall while Hophtrig figures out how to be a hero and go get our engine.
Hophtrig has noticed everyone on the bus seems to come in one of a few categories.
The Leaders, who would like to be the big boss of everyone on here. Zapaterietxe and the Graffin, Ekaterina are our leaders.
The analysts: who like to think about things and talk about their thinking. The leaders are both analysts, so are Ja'ayem, John the less and Joosten. Because Joosten is such a good thinker, Hophtrig wants to follow his suggestion and get our engine back.
Vast brain, slow processor. These friends are analysts who have very big brains, but their hardware means the brains take a long time to give us friends any information. Crimson and Reppik.
The quiet ones: The rest of the beings on this friend-ship are either shy, asleep, processing slower than the last group or trying not to give anything away. Lucy, John, Choey, Ios, Codine and Codine's master are very quiet.
Hophtrig can tickle the quiet ones before he goes engine hunting, if you'd like?
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
You make ze fact zat I discussed my thoughts on everyvun, and not just three, a reason for suspicion? Zat is incomprehensible. Ve vant more speech, more opinion, more argument, not less. Zat is ze only data ve have to spot ze intruders if ze inspectors fail us. Und zey might. [...] Und you vant to discourage people from speaking? Zat is senseless.
Signäl too nooise, my dær Mooriärty. List äll säy noothing. Pooint too few säy moore if yoou häve ræsoon too säy things. Yoou stuck in "this säy this soo coould be this, but then thät säy thät soo coould be thät" which is just bloober änd doo noot help. Änyoone cän dooings. I wänt relevänt tälk. Yoou noo help.
quote:
I am not convinced zat ve should not evict somevun. I think zat is trusting too much in our investigators to solve ze puzzle for us. Ve do not have to be very unlucky for zat to fail.
Wroong. Bäddies oonly oone kill æch night. If they be quick lucky we knoow änd ädäpt. If they very lucky we noo loose twoo nights, oonly oone. Minoor looss. Blooting noow incræse their oodds. Unless sure. Yoou tälk Looke änd loook Midgärd Serpent, soo foor yoou I think of mäke exc... exce... spec... spe... spexceptiäl cäse. Ooff-throow foor being bäddie, noot foor seeing foolk's vootings.
quote:
I vill be very happy, ven ze investigators have had ze chance to see vich of zem is vich, to look for vays in vich ve use zem to vin, but I do not think ve should do nothing until zat happens. If zey are killed before zey reveal zeir findings, vat do ve do zen?
Yoour mäd rävishing woorse thän Thoor oon späce-cräck. We noot doo noothing right noow. Whät we doo noot help bäddies, soo yoou cläim it noothing. List oof three mägnificent. Give ooppoortunity shoow preferences, änd if everyoone doo (änd you noot häve) then everyoone tälk. It sets pättern which help Mimirs hide.
Moost oof äll, helps Mimirs present findings. If foound loyäl, pläce läst oon list. If bäddie, pläce first. Äfter dæth we knoow if right oor wroong. Foolloow this pättern even äfter knoowings oown b... bi... biälisisiänooniäs. Then äll sooon knoow. Mimirses' unälike view älsoo määke härd foor bäddies too guess when pootings oon lists.
Which yoou, Gräfinn Ekätärinä Eliäbooloon, rælise. Soo yoou try stoop. Yoour roobe be slipping.
quote:
If you agree vith zat, and think ve should kill vith good reason, zen your reason for nominating me vas untrue. If you do not agree vith zat, und think ve should not kill anyvun, zen you should obviously not be nominating anyvun. Und I think you are too experienced und clever to make such a mistake in ze thinking.
Bästärd men änd bästärd woomen, loook here. Äsk self. Whoo mäke big mistäke in think, whoo mäke smäll mistäke. Whoo is too clever too oought too mäke sooch mistäke. Gräfinn ooff-throow-list me oover oobvioous cläimed fäult - but noo mistäke. I doo noot säy kill noone änd then ooff-throow-list änyoone. I säy here be ræl, deep mistäkes froom bright mind. He miscläim oover änd oover, säy we doo "noothing" when we doo list oof three, ooff-throow-list änyoone listing him, withoout oother ræsoon thän "yoou noot think well". Methinks he dooes pro... pr... proosthesis his loogic too mooch.
Oone moore thing. She noo schoooled. Tälk oof killings foor inf... infoo... infooräfoomätooficätioon (Joostein tälk oof killings foor bäddie foound). Äfter twoo nights, twoo likely dæd, säme äs äfter oone night with killings änd ploonderings, boot twoo chänces foor Mimirs. First ploondering, bäddies häve mooch säy whoo gooes. Oone night äfter k'n'p oone looyäl dæd, likely oone moore tooo. Woorst häppen noo Mimir knoowings ÄT ÄLL. Twoo nights äfter noot k'n'p, twoo looyäl dæd boot (woorst cäse) oone pieces oof sure knoowings. Änd hæler älive. Moore likely bäddies miss læst oone, then äfter twoo nights, twoo-three knoowings.
Gräfinn doo noot cäre foor this. Dooes noot ädmit this loogic. Thät's why Joostein think Gräfinn noot goood stärt foor cloos, but äctuäl bäddie.
Loook ät bäddie's view. If noo k'n'p, äfter three nights if noot joost right luck, moore thän oone piece oof knoowings, Mimir oor hæler älive änd foour däys too goo throough. If joost oone Hugin älive then, äfter three nights looyäls häve læst three clær änd foour däys too find läst bäddie. Thät why Gräfinn/bäddies wänt too kill soo bädly, stoop Hugins.
Loook ät Gräfinn's woords, then Joostein's. Whoo shoouldst rælly knoowings better? Änd what moore likely, Gräfinn stoopid oor evil?
Joostein will hoold bäck voote foor noow. If foolk believe Gräfinn evil, will voote foor Gräfinn, but will otherwise voote foor safe ooptioon oof noo ooff-throowing.
[Linkfix. - A]
[ 04. March 2014, 14:20: Message edited by: Ariston ]
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
Ladies, Gentlemen, and Other Entities,
Nominations have closed.
I believe we have three nominations to be thrown off the bus:
Joostein Käse (JFH): nominated Grafinn Ekaterina Eliabulon
Grafinn Ekaterina Eliabulon (Eliab): nominated Joostein Käse
Reppik Tew (Wet Kipper): nominated Zapaterietxe.
And as always the ever suspicious No Lynching.
All corrections gratefully accepted.
Votes by Friday please to decide whether and which one of your number you are going to throw to their certain doom. Have a Nice Day.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Joostein wäs pretty sure Reppik Tew häd ooff-boos-listed Leslie, noot Zäpäterietxe, but thät Zäpäterietxe häd poot up Reppik Tew's näme oon the list.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Joosten, have you found the wires for the communicator yet?
And how should Hophtrig find that lost engine?
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Soorry, Joostein rælise foorget änd ignoore Hoofdrig whoole time. Noo idæ hoow häppen. Foor beginnings, Hoofdrig must coorrect ärmoor. See oon "Hulk 156.0" shoorts never bræk, soo Hoofdrig must wær oover æsy brooken hæd. Secoond, Hoofdrig must ständ cloose too äirloock änd loook intense ät engine throough windoow. Äs dooor oopen, Joostein änd Bloont Oobjectimoom will give poosh too help Hoofdrig oon wäy.
Äs foor wires, Joostein säw in Crimsoon's bäg soome pärts mäy help foor repläcings. Joostein sure noo oone mind if Hoofdrig help Joostein ploonder/boorroow Crimsoon's cäbles befoore getting engine. Cäre too try, Hoofdrig?
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
It has been pointed out to me that I have missed a nomination:
Here follows the corrected list.
Joostein Käse (JFH): nominated by Grafinn Ekaterina Eliabulon
Grafinn Ekaterina Eliabulon (Eliab): nominated by Joostein Käse
Reppik Tew (Wet Kipper): nominated by Zapaterietxe.
Lesley (Kelly Alves): nominated by Reppik Tew.
And as always the ever suspicious No Lynching.
[ 04. March 2014, 12:53: Message edited by: Dafyd ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
After allowing my subconscious mind to work on this overnight, I am left with few answers and many questions.
- Why have Codine, Otto, Daisy, Cho Bacca, and Ios been so quiet? Of the five, Cho Bacca has most obviously been paying the most attention, but all we've gotten is bits about chocolate and tools. She did vote no lynch, which is a positive, but not really conclusive. Everyone talking is a marvellous idea, but it only really works if everyone collaborates on how to get out alive. So why aren't they talking?
- Eliabulon is a bit of an enigma. Why does it seem she is talking much and saying little? Why is she beginning to seem as though she's contradicting herself? It's subtle, and maybe I'm not reading it well -- the accent is atrocious, honey, get a speech therapist -- but I'm sensing something isn't right. Either she's innocent and a slightly bloodthirsty gambler, or else she's in cahoots with the Misguided.
- What's going on with Reppik Tew? Why did I misread him so badly the first time? He may be a mook, or he may be the sympathizer. Criminal Mastermind and kingpin he is not. However, I can also imagine him to be innocent and driven by bloodlust. Start flinging people off the bus and the Misguided will show themselves soon enough. The problem with that particular gambit is that they will show themselves -- right after they manipulate us into throwing ourselves over, one by one.
- What is up with Lesley? Why have we gotten juuuuust enough input to keep her off the silent list, as though she were trying to hide in the middle of the pack? I have a theory, which I will get to in a moment.
- What the heck is going on with Hophtrig? Is it comic relief? Is he hiding something? Is he subtly signalling something suspicious? He has had a couple ideas to try to help the innocents, although most of his talking has been about getting the bus to work. Why am I having such a hard time reading him?
That Lesley is one of the Misguided I have little doubt. Mentioning people who already have bandwagons going, using the same one-liner reasons as everyone else, and acting completely disinterested in the proceedings all conspire to make me suspicious. There's been a lot of pointless action, but no input of any kind. Unfortunately, that's all I have to go on at the moment.
Similarly, I think that Reppik Tew is in some way guilty. He's not subtle and smart enough to be the mastermind; more likely he's the sympathizer or a mook whose job it is to stir up trouble and dissension. Throwing people off randomly now does not help us. It does, however, help the Misguided. If they can manipulate us into lynching one of our own, we've effectively shortened the game one night. So instead of giving any helpful input at all, Reppik objects. When he is called on it, he blusters and nominates Lesley, which in my estimation was a calculated bluff designed to try to deflect heat. Zapa recognized it and called it, and I agree with the assessment. Why they would throw one of their own under the bus this early is beyond me, but I do think it's a bluff.
The other two Misguided could be almost any of the others, but for some reason I keep being drawn to these three: Otto, Codine, and Eliabulon. Otto and Codine are here because they have only posted a couple times, and both of those were descriptive, non-committal posts. Mainly an "I'm still here, don't hang me for being silent" type post. If one of these three are Misguided, he or she is likely the mastermind.
As for Eliabulon, the more she talks the more I doubt. There are several reasons, but one of them is that she pops up and immediately takes charge. Another is the exchange between her and Joostein. I'm trying not to read too much into her constant talking (it's her modus operandi*, judging by past events of a similar nature), but it's raising questions left and right.
Something else interesting is that Eliabulon counts Codine and Cho Bacca a "keeping ze rules", despite the fact that neither one has actually added to the conversation. Cho Bacca affirmed a no lynching vote (although the polls weren't open yet, so you'll have to do it again, I think), and that's it. Otto, Cho Bacca, and Codine have all posted at least once, and it's just static. So this may be a subtle attempt at clearing two of the Misguided, or it may be the simple mistake of an innocent who wants a contribution of any sort, whether or not it is helpful.
One thing does work into her favor and keeps me from making a final judgement on her. Her willingness to go along with what Zapa suggested is a good thing. She then talked about almost everyone, which I count as good -- the more facts and information we have, the more likely it is the innocent will win.
Joostein pointed out several flaws in her reasoning, and his reasoning makes sense. She could be an overeager innocent, or she could be the mastermind. I'm not finished analyzing her contributions, so this is subject to change.
I still think Zapa, Ja'ayem, Crimson, Joostein are innocent, which makes five, counting myself. I'm not certain about de Cooperhoop or Hophtrig, but I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt for now. So that's seven. Them's much better odds than what we had before.
I'm beginning to moderate slightly on my no lynching stance. If I can be certain that we've identified one of the Misguided, I will vote to kick them off the bus. I'm going to process a bit more before deciding, though. At the moment I'm still more inclined to let our detectives work and just follow their lead.
_____
* "Method of operation"
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Codine smiles. "So out of fourteen people beside himself, John is suspecting five people for not saying much, and one more for saying a lot. Let Grafinn Ekatarina Eliabulon take this as proof why I have never been that persuaded by this theory of an early lynching. Yes, out of my fourteen fellow passengers over a fourth* are violently psychopathic, but suspecting some people for talking and others for not talking seems to prove how little we have to go on right now.
Let it be known that Codine is watching you all. He will talk more when he has something to say.
*Counting the silent fourth possessed one
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto curtsies again, consults the FBC, and comments that he is a man of fabulousness, weak bladder and flourishes. Otto is perhaps strangely silent because he busy patting his boa and lining up for the loo.
Suspicions? You all look less fabulous than Otto. After consulting the FBC further, Otto will sit on the throne of thought, consider the wondrous fabulousity of the bus, and that the FBC emanates some tingly electricity when certain names are mentioned.... Is that menacing laugh merely in his head?
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Joostein noote thät Coodine twice tälked äwäy Joostein's coomment oon Gräfinn, but noot reply too Joostein's woords. Coould be prootect pärtner in rhyme. Gräfinn noot oodd foor tälk, but foor think bäd. Why soome insist oother versioon?
But Joostein älsoo need cälmings doown, grooup need pæce too think. Oothers need tälk. Hoofdrig, Crimsoon's cäbles loooking goood? Cooould usings foor fixing buttoon? Whät säyings mänuäl?
While Joostein änd Hoofdrig herooic fix boos, Chooey, Leslie, Crimsoon, Lädy Celändine, Däisy, Ioos whät think?
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Codine raised an eyebrow. "Codine has found Joostein's words somewhat incomprehensible, and has not heard or understood all of them. This might be related. Your accent, sir, is a touch much.
Also, since when am I defending him? You overestimate, Codine's feelings of kindness. Codine thinks that Graffin's arguments for lynching are poor, and was saying so. Whether or not the long-named one is guilty is very much up for grabs in my mind. It is not Graffin's long-windedness that is suspect though. He is always long-winded. No, if I suspect him for anything, it's because I am watching to see what (if anything) he is trying to direct us away from. People who tell Codine where to look are always under suspicion. Of course, that number seems to be including you also.
[ 04. March 2014, 15:57: Message edited by: Gwai ]
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
(Typoed Eliab's name, because I did it from memory in my haste to beat the edit time deadline)
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Sorry Joostein, Hophtrig doesn't have any instructions. Does Joostein know anything about communicators, or maybe we should ask Crimson. Crimson wanted to help fix things. Zapaterietxe, may be my friend, but he wasn't very nice to me and Lesley when we tried to fix the bus.
Hophtrig's not so sure about putting Hophtrig's shorts on his head and going out the airlock, Hophtrig's maker always said, only get off a bus when it's securely docked. Are you sure this is a good idea?
Hophtrig thinks that having two leaders who both want to do different things might not be a very good idea, either. Hophtrig isn't always a very clever being, but he is wondering if one of the big bosses, Zapaterietxe or The Graffin Eliabulon might be a good person to take the definitive action of going out the door to get the engine tomorrow. Right now, Hophtrig doesn't know quite enough and wants everyone else to have the chance to try Choey's delicious hot chocolate, Yum!
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
*sigh*
Dear everyone: while I'm glad none of you have ever had run-ins with Pavian nobility, and thus don't understand that bossiness, talkativeness, questionable planning, a general disregard for other sentient lifeforms, a tendency to encourage resentment in the "lower classes," and bad taste in art are all character traits that define the breed, let me assure you most emphatically, they damn well are. What we have here in our presence, in just as bad a predicament as the rest of us, is an exemplar. If she deviated from these known and perhaps unfortunate traits in any way, shape, or form, then I'd be suspicious. As it is, though, you can't blame an inbred and overbearing aristocrat for being an inbred and overbearing aristocrat, no matter how much those who resent being directed by them sometimes try.
(In other words, having had a peak at those computer records John pulled up, it's Eliab. He does this every game, everyone thinks it looks suspicious, the baddies use the fact that everyone thinks it looks suspicious to shitstir, he comes up with kinda reasonable once you think of it ideas that have the downside of looking suspicious, the baddies stir some more, he gets lynched, turns out he was innocent, baddies win. Every. Single. Time. The records only show one time where he didn't suggest the same exact strategy and follow the same pattern of posts he always does—would any of you like to take a wild guess as to how many times he was actually a bad guy? Exactly. If anything, nominating the Grafinn is a great shitstirring strategy, right out of the old playbook—I mean, it's not conclusive or anything, because everybody does it, and her Cunning Plan does have the unfortunate downside of looking bloodthirsty and evil, but yeah, classic way to stir. Not that I necessarily think Joostein had sinister motives, mind you—being nominated to take a walk outside would be something that would elicit a bit of a defense. Still, watch the stirring)
Oh, and my vote: surprise, surprise, Reppik Tew
Posted by Starbug (# 15917) on
:
Like Codine, one finds Joostein's accent almost incomprehensible. However, one has determined that he seems desperate to throw Hophtrig out of the bus. Why? To destroy an innocent or to save himself? Or, and this is a more sinister option, perhaps they are working together and their mutual animosity is faked, in order to divert attention. One is inclined to believe the latter, especially as one has already expressed one's distrust of Hophtrig.
One has read the passenger manifest and there is no mention of Codine's master. Is He actually here in disguise? Is He one of the invisible beings? Or has Codine been possessed and is merely imagining her missing Master? Having met Him in better circumstances, one knows that He exists as a real entity - but perhaps He is not present on this vehicle.
About Cho Bacca, Daisy, Ios and Crimson, one knows little. They have spoken at times, but added little to the debate.
Otto seems strange and has also contributed little. Is he harmless or not? It may be too early to tell. However, one has a healthy wariness of that feather boa constrictor.
Of the Grafinn, one has already spoken. Like others here, one dislikes being ordered around. Such bossiness implies a lack of breeding - perhaps all is not as it seems here.
John seems friendly and acts generously, but this may be just a front. While he dresses simply, my own peasant attire will attest that clothes do not necessarily make the man/woman. For now, one's judgement is reserved.
I believe that leaves Reppik Tew and Jaye'em. One is not sure about these two. All things considered, one is staying witht one's original decision of
No lynching.
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
Ja'ayem was still unsure about the no lynching v lynching. He knew many people favored doing something, but this time we have two detectives so it may be different...but how many other times had it been said.
He was a little disturbed by the whole contradiction involved in the debate. Graffin had said
quote:
Zen you say zat it is suspicious not to go vith ze plan of not nominating anybody. Und use zat as a reason to nominate somevun yourself? Do you not see ze contradiction zere?
But that seemed like the tip of the iceberg of paradoxiness. We should lynch somebody if and only if we shouldn't lynch anybody? That wasn't quite it...but it reflected uneasily in his mind.
He came down in favour of No lynching some interesting patterns had emerged, but with no idea yet if they were bluff, mistaken or insightful. To take the most recent example of Zapaterietxe defending Graffin even if we picked one to lynch and they did turn out to be guilty it tells us nothing of the other, and likewise if* they were innocent it tells us nothing. Yet!
A second day might put things in focus more.
*this is of course more likely if they were selected at random, this isn't quite the case as they selected themselves, but...
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
There's no animosity between Hophtrig and Joosten, Lucy, Joosten is Hophtrig's friend, just like Lucy is. Joosten wants to help me get the engine back, so we can fix this bus and all be safe.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
The FBC has whispered into the ear of Otto. Otto finds himself suspicious, very suspicious, and as the electrical tingliness of the FBC has confirmed it to him, he finds himself reflecting....
Joostein is weirder than I, which while being an accomplishment, may also be a cover for something. It is of course, not a cover in my case, which I assure you is also confirmed by the FBC, who confirms my innocence. The dialogue has leaned Otto's thoughts firmly, who says Grafinn is suspicious as well. Of the two, who? One. Which?
Otto and the FBC sayeth: Joostein is the one for offedness.
[ 04. March 2014, 18:11: Message edited by: no prophet ]
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig doesn't like all this suspicion. Hophtrig thinks we're all friends here, and should come together for a big hug and a drink of hot chocolate, sending noone out into space yet. Some of our number have had naughty thoughts planted in their head by a mean and horrid alien, but we need a bit more time to find out who they are. Come on, big hug for everyone!
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
As for Eliabulon, the more she talks the more I doubt. There are several reasons, but one of them is that she pops up and immediately takes charge. Another is the exchange between her and Joostein. I'm trying not to read too much into her constant talking (it's her modus operandi*, judging by past events of a similar nature), but it's raising questions left and right.
Zat is ze point! Zat is exactly ze point.
Ve need disagreement. Ve need argument. Ve need people to suspect ozers und say vy zey suspect zem.
Vy? Because zis is data. Zis is vat ve look at, und remember, und analyse. Zis, if ze inspectors fail, is how ve vin. Zere vill alvays be zose who find zis suspicious. I do not care about zat. 'Not looking suspicious' is not ze priority for me. Finding ze truth is.
Zere are two ways to truth. Vun is to talk und think und act on ze best guess. Ze ozer is to leave it to ze investigators. Ze problem ve have is zat until ze investigators have checked somevun who has since died (or vun of zem dies), zey can be sure of nothing. Ve have two of zem, vich is good - if zey live. If zey live, zen ve vin. Zey are powerful, but because zere is a delay before zey become useful, to rely on zem to vin for us is a risk ve should not take. Und I am vell avare some of you vill suspect me for saying zat. But I do not care.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
Ze vote:
I vould love to be able to vote for Lesley. She clearly does not like me, und it vould be most satisfying for her to die und be guilty. But ze more I think of vy she has taken against me, ze more it looks like ze sort of ancestral grudge zat ve Pavians know something about. Likely vun of my ancestors unjustly consented to ze death of vun of hers, und ze thing zat is bugging her is ze thought of being fooled by me. I do not think she vould be so, vell, blatant about is if she vas guilty. So I cannot vote for her.
I know zat I am not guilty.
Zapaterietxe makes ze case against Reppik. Zere seems to be two main grounds. Zun is association vith Lesley. Two is ze steering of ze conversation avay from gathering information und tovards ze sort of strategy zat ze killers plan for. As I think zat Lesley is innocent, zefirst of zese reasons does not convince me. Zere is more force to ze second. But I am more suspicious of Joostein zan of Reppik. Reppik expressed ze view (a false vun) zat too much voicing of suspicion und intention vould confuse ze issue, but Joostein has gone further in trying to discourage zis sort of discussion by accusing ze person who does much of it. So if I think zere is reason to suspect Reppik (und zere is), zere is more to suspect Joostein.
Ze choice for me zen is Joostein or no vun. I vould usually say zat not lynching is foolish, because even zough ze odds are not good, ve have only a limited number of chances und to vaste vun is against ze rules. But ze two investigators do change ze picture. Zere is a lot of information zey can find, und zat qvickly, vith protection from ze doctor, und zose are odds zat I do like. To have ze position vere ze know zat most of us are innocent is ze best und safest vay to vin. Ve should aim for zat - but ve cannot rely on zat. I vant to give ze investigators time, but I do not vant to vaste a day if zey do not vin zis for us. So, vith a little more zan usual trepidation ...
Joostein
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Would Hophtrig like to play with Otto's feather boa constrictor. The FBC wants to know.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ios is mostly quiet because she doesn't think she will successfully reason her way to any useful conclusion. Plus she has gotten in the habit of browsing other websites and often finds herself daydreaming when she should be following the conversation on the bus. She needs to go back and find why Joosten nominated the redoubtable Grafinn Eliabulon. But the Grafinn Eliabulon reminds Ios of many of the most interestingly analytical people she has known, so Ios would never ever nominate the Grafinn first. So that renders Joosten as slightly suspicious -- except mostly Ios thinks the winning strategy for the baddies is to not draw attention to themselves during the daytime, and count on panic among the innocents to take care of lynching innocents during the daytime especially in the early stages, so the baddies barely have to lift a finger. So that leaves Joosten as not suspicious, but merely trigger happy. As a helpless innocent, there's certainly an attraction in trying to do something, anything; this phenomenon would render Joosten's quick nomination less suspicious.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey looked puzzled. Otto had voted for someone not on the electoral list. She supposed he and his feather boa constrictor were just at odds again, with one going one way and the other another. While she had been munching her way through an entire loaf of banana bread she had been thinking, and counting.
Some out of her fellow passengers had declined to make accusations, including herself. Eight of the others were clearly in favour of sending someone after the errant engine. She was still not in favour of a precipitate eviction and hoped the light display from her explainiator would make that clear. No lynching.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
While voting is in progress, could people please not put any names of fellow passengers in bold unless they intend to vote for them.
[ 04. March 2014, 23:02: Message edited by: Dafyd ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ios thinks Halftrack made sense when he (she? it?) said this about how to correlate the Detective and Anti- Detectives abilities. But she's (Ios, not Halftrack) is rather muddled and not quite sure, and as an outward and visible sign of that inward and invisible confusion, she is muddling up her apostrophes.
Ios's also puzzling about how the Grafinn figured that we could get the information we need in two days; and also wondering how the baddies win in four days (though she thinks she could probably work that one out).
Ios' sis also wondering if we're allowed to reason (or perhaps it would be more accurate to call it ruminate; reason seems quite elusive) during the voting phase, or whether we are supposed to stay mostly silent except for our vote.
Ios thinks the most important thing is to figure out if the Graffin is right that we must hold our nose and take a chance with some vote, any vote, on day one; or whether it is ok to not put anyone out the airlock until day 2.
[ 04. March 2014, 23:14: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Ios's also puzzling about how the Grafinn figured that we could get the information we need in two days;
At ze start of ze first day - fifteen people, of vich four could prove zere innocence. Eleven are unknown.
Ze second day starts - suppose zat two of ze unknowns are dead, und two innocents are investigated. Ve do not know zat yet, so is still four ve could be sure of, und nine unknowns.
Ze third day starts - suppose two more innocents are investigated, und vun unknown und vun of ze checked vuns dies. Zen ze investigators know vich of zem is vich, und zey have seven known innocents vith four unknown. Und ve have vun.
Zat is ze best ve could do. Zere is much zat could go wrong - ze investigators could die, or zey could each check ze same person, or ze killers could kill more zan vun known innocent. Or ze investigators could find a guilty person, or ze killers could claim to have ze special roles (either of vich is good, as ve find vun killer qvickly, but slows down ze clearing of ze innocent). Ve can, of course, still vin vith some bad luck - ve vin if ve are six to five on ze third day, as vell as if ve are seven to four. But even so, ve cannot count on zis best vay happening. Ve must be ready if it does not happen. So ve must speak und think und keep ze rules. But zere is no reason to vork against it.
(And zat is vy you can see zat I am innocent. Hophtrig's plan vas against zis vun: ve choose a victim, have ze investigators check zem, zen kill zem off to see vich investigator is vich. Zat vorked against ze chance of ze best vay happening, as it vasted two investigations on a dead vun.
An intelligent killer vould have thought "Vow! Zat vould be good! Let us see vether zey vill do zat." An intelligent innocent vould have said "Ze plan is insane!" Vich I did.)
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
Und you can see zat 'no lynching' today does not stop my 'best vay' from happening. Ve vin tied votes (or ve should do) so if ve are six to six ve still vin.
Ze reason for lynching is not to help vith a vin by investigation. Ze reason is zat if ze investigations fail to vin for us, zen ve need all of ze chances ve can get to vork out vith our brains vich of us are ze intruders.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
At ze start of ze first day - fifteen people, of vich four could prove zere innocence. Eleven are unknown.
Vait right zere. How can any of us prove our innocence?
And by first day, do you mean today where we're discussing? Just checking I'm not making a fencepost error.
Vhile vaiting for ze Grafinn's reply, Ios decided to work on the puzzle of blue eyes and brown eyes. It made her head hurt so much less than the puzzle of outwitting the baddies by mostly sheer luck.
Grafinn, is zere a rule about distinguishing our words from our actions by ze use of italics? I found ze ozzer rules and shall endeavour to comply.
Have ze innocents ever beaten ze baddies?
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Have ze innocents ever beaten ze baddies?
Thrice, according to John's records—Shipbury, the Ariston, and Australia. Of course, that second one was due to an extraordinary stroke or two of luck (and not enough baddies), while the third was due to an unusually brilliant young lady infiltrating the ranks of the Hell's Bandits. So, really, one. Of course, the baddies have won on strokes of luck and technicalities too, but, to be honest, the fact that they start off knowing who is guilty at the beginning and can both confidently act to off people, as well as game the system, from the very beginning is a pretty strong advantage.
[Okay, this "long URL's not working properly" thing is getting OLD]
[ 05. March 2014, 02:48: Message edited by: Ariston ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
Of course, the baddies have won on strokes of luck and technicalities too, but, to be honest, the fact that they start off knowing who is guilty at the beginning and can both confidently act to off people, as well as game the system, from the very beginning is a pretty strong advantage.
It is said that when played in person with everyone being allowed paper and pencil the innocents pretty much win every time. The difference is that online we can't see faces and the game takes much longer, so the bad guys don't have to fake being innocent as long.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
So, the voting so far:
Lucy—TESS
Choey—TESS
Me (Terietxe)—Reppik Tew
Ja'ayem—TESS
Otto—Joostein (the only voter so far who wasn't talkative during the nominations phase)
Hophtrig—TESS
Grafinn Eliabulon—Joostein
8 votes needed to convict; 4 votes for This Execution Should Stop, 2 for Joostein, 1 for Reppik Tew.
8 passengers left to vote: Ios (who is talking, and has given me a very fun puzzle to play with); John (also talking); Daisy (who hasn't said much of anything at all in a long while); Reppik Tew; Lesley; Codine; Crimson; Joostein Käse
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
:
Lesley has softened in her opinion of the Graffin; while she still is puzzled by his need to assign a timetable to things, she recognizes this might just be his temperament and therefore she resolves to back off and simply keep an eye on him. Also he seems vaguely butthurt at her accusatory looks, and the wails of the butthurt make for a long flight.
Reppik Tew, the other hand...Zapaterietxe makes an interesting argument...
quote:
When her attempt to stop the pattern that might have been developing against her failed (along with her attempt to suggest a counterpattern that might have taken suspicion off of her in favor of one of three others), you stepped in to argue against the form of non-binding voting that was going against your cohort. Call me paranoid, but that sounds like shitstirring to me.
Yeah! Shitstirring!
But the truth is there is one passenger whose behavior has been setting off her alarms from minute 1 of this journey-- that distracting effervescence? That persistent need to violate social and physical boundaries, perhaps to acquire information? That conveniently bumbling attempt to tear up a friggin' wall of the spaceship while "OOPS!" losing several vital pieces of equipment needed to repair it? I'm on to you, Hophtrig.!
[ 05. March 2014, 06:42: Message edited by: Kelly Alves ]
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
Please note that Hophtrig has not been nominated and therefore may not be voted for. This is the first vote; you will be allowed to vote again. On any future day votes for ineligible candidates will be counted as No Lynching.
In response to Ios' question: You may discuss and deliberate over your votes as much as you wish. Please put the name of the person you're voting for in bold so that I can clearly see it. Ideally give your vote in a paragraph by itself and not buried in a block of text and introduced by some formula such as 'I vote for'. Please do not put anything else in bold; at the moment I have a cold and have no attention span worth speaking of. Dimthing Tours are not liable for the consequences if they misread your vote. Have a Nice Day.
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
:
I am a moron, vote me off.
FINE! No lynching. I need to study people more.
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on
:
Crimson has learned a new trick – how to refract itself so that it forms that shapes of letters in the mirror. It arranges itself into the following text:
I suspect (but can’t be sure for now) that Graffin is being directive because that is what Graffin is like. I don’t think it’s necessarily anything from which guilt can be deduced – at this stage at least. It’s what she would do if she was innocent and it’s what she would do if she was guilty. We have to wait and see.
As for Jöøsteïn, I’m not sure. He also rather seems to want to take control of the discussion, but then, I get the impression that he’s rather a bullish sort of a character. Again, my feeling is wait and see.
Hophtrig, while irritating, I am fairly sure is not guilty. His plan to volunteer for lynching may have been misguided, but I don’t think he’s sly enough to do it as a bluff.
Reppik Tew I have no particular opinion on at present, nor Lesley.
So early on, anything can be suspicious, or not. Talkativeness – suspicious if all the blathering doesn’t make sense, not necessarily otherwise. Being quiet – can be a sign that someone is hiding something, but we don’t know what, or who they’re trying to hide from.* Alternatively, I’ve heard that the Real Life virus is present on the bus and sometimes entities go quiet for reasons completely unrelated to the investigation.
Under the prevailing conditions on this bus, every unfortunate decease that occurs can potentially be an information-gathering opportunity. Until someone dies, the investigators don’t know the reliability of their information. However, at this stage the investigating entities haven’t had time to do any investigating. Since we are more likely to do away with an innocent than not, I’m not sure it’s time to throw anyone out. If I was going to vote for lynching anyone, it would no doubt be Eliabulon or Joostein, but if they’re not guilty then they’re both pretty useful individuals to have around, so I don’t think it’s worth the risk at this stage.
Now I grant that when I was getting my virtual pants bored off in the lab playing chess with the researchers (and surprise, surprise, beating them into oblivion) I generally advised against this sort of thing, but it seems to me that on this occasion the way forward is to hang fire a little. Consequently I’m going to go with no lynching at this stage in the proceedings.
[The innocents also beat the baddies at St Damian’s college. Basically, the innocents win when Crimson is innocent. Note to the doctor: it’s obviously up to you, but you might want to think about helping me stay alive
.]
*Personally I’ve always thought that going quiet is a really stupid strategy. Whatever you’re hiding – and remember that some people go quiet because they’re trying to hide from the killers – you always end up calling attention to yourself in the end. Failing a nasty episode of Real Life, smart entities maintain the same level of presence no matter who they are.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Joostein wäntings knowings Crimsoon think whät oof Zäp... Zäpä... Zäppy?
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
By my numbers it is no longer possible to lynch anyone, unless Joostein votes to lynch himself.
Zapaterietxe makes a good case against Reppik Tew. Joostein's argument against Eliabulon makes sense (you have to translate into English first), and is not evil enough to kick him off, especially since Zapaterietxe seems to think her innocent. Eliabulon's argument against Joostein doesn't hold water (even when translated into English), but I'm chalking that up to it being Eliabulon's "Feed me moar Viking babeeez!!" style.
Thus the only three plays that make sense to me are Reppik, Lesley, or no lynch.
I want to see what we can work out before we start throwing people off the bus. This time, we win with the most people alive. We've gotten a lot of good info this round. We are in good shape going into the night, and we've prevented the Misguided from manipulating us into executing one of our own for them.
No lynching.
[ 05. March 2014, 10:46: Message edited by: Barefoot Friar ]
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
The vote seems solved, but as Codine believes in form, he puts in his slip of paper: No Lynching
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I don't agree with the previous voter's numbers that it's no longer possible to vote someone out the airlock. But perhaps all mathematical ability has fled me.
I vote for Joostein.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Truthfully I just took it on faith from the previous poster, because I was planning to vote for no lynching anyway, as you may have guessed.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Joostein oof-boos poossible befoore Coodine mäke voote. Noow oonly if Joostein self-ploonder. Noot likely. Joostein hävings questioon too äsk:
Crimsoon, beings poossible foor græt mind inventings trä... trän... tränsilitlätoor mächine foor Noordic visitoors? Coouldings Zäppy help mät... mät... mäteriälistificätifize sooch toool froom thin äir? Oor ät læst enäble foolk täke Noordic speech throough woord proo... proo... proocessitätoor änd repläce äll æ with eä, ä with ä, änd ooo with oo?
Joostein wäntings foolk ræd tälk of Joostein, then ræd änswer froom foolk like Gräfinn, see if änswer rælly be too säme questioon änd if noot äsk why soo? Joostein noot think tälk itself bäd, but bloober säying äll coould be bäddies lookings moore oof screen oof mäny smooke.
Joostein knoowings päviän ooften soource oof mooch bloober, just moostly oof better quä... quäl... quälulälitility oor usings thän oof läst. Thät why bloober oodd.
Oother news be Joostein voote foor no lynching.
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
Joostein wäntings knowings Crimsoon think whät oof Zäp... Zäpä... Zäppy?
Crimson thinks that Zapathingy’s name is unnecessarily hard to spell and he probably deserves to be thrown off the bus just for that
.
Apart from that, she hasn’t made her mind up yet but he’s smart enough that it’s always worth keeping an eye on him. Keeping an eye on Reppik Tew is probably quite a plan as well, because learning something about Reppik would probably tell us something about [complicated name beginning with Z]. One of them might be guilty. Neither of them might be guilty. It's unlikely they both are.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
So everyone's staying on the bus? Big Hophtrig hugs for all Hophtrig's friends! Hophtrig's sorry Hophtrig hasn't fixed the bus yet, but Hophtrig knows we'll all find a way together. While Hophtrig was in the loo, Hophtrig was thinking, sorry Hophtrig took so long all you people who were waiting outside. Maybe Crimson and Zapaterietxe could form into some type of engine to take us as far as we need to go to get the broken one back?
Hophtrig was thinking about his big idea, too. Hophtrig doesn't think deciding who we want to ask to get off the bus a day before they do is a bad idea. If we friends do that, both detectives know if they're wrong or right, and the two of them can try to push us to make the right choice to ask someone to get off - somehow. If we don't help them, then the chances of them finding out about the right person are 1:13. These chances go up every time the group of people on board gets smaller (so do the chances of a detective disembarking), but the only informed guidance we friends can get is from someone who knows something, and the only people who know something until each of the detectives in turn learns if they're right, are naughty. The detectives don't both know whether they're right or wrong as soon as one finds out the truth about someone they've looked into.
We need to get two clear voices telling us who's naughty and who's nice, there's no way we'd listen to one, and if someone says they know, there's likely to be someone else, naughty, saying that they know and that the first person is lying, so an unmasked detective is hard to trust without asking someone they say is guilty to get off. It's not a good thing to ask good friends to hop off.
Hophtrig might be annoying, Hophtrig might be impulsive, Hophtrig might well suffer from ADHD (no suffering involved, really, he LOVES it!), but Hophtrig doesn't think his idea is crazy. Think about Hophtrig's idea. The Graffin Eliabulon says it is insane, because it wastes an investigation finding out something they will eventually. Hophtrig doesn't think this knowledge would be a waste. Maybe, if Hophtrig's clever, then the Graffin is trying to shut down a good idea. Or maybe if the Graffin's right, then Hophtrig is trying to waste everyone's time and thought?
And yes, John, Hophtrig would love to play with your feather boa constrictor, he looks so tickly and huggy, just like Hophtrig.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
Hm. Interesting. For what it's worth, Reppik Tew (who still looks suspicious to me) didn't vote, despite nominating Lesley (information suppression?)—but neither did Daisy, who hasn't said much of anything in a very long while.
The votes:
Lucy—TESS
Choey—TESS
Me (Terietxe)—Reppik Tew
Ja'ayem—TESS
Otto—Joostein
Hophtrig—TESS
Grafinn Eliabulon—Joostein*
and, since last time:
Lesley—failed vote for Hophtrig, then TESS†
Crimson—TESS**
John—TESS
Codine—TESS
Ios—TESS
Joostein Käse—TESS
*Precludes conviction of Grafinn Eliabulon and Lesley †Now impossible to convict Reppik **Impossible to convict Joostein
Not voting: Daisy, Reppik Tew
What are the takeaways from this? First, that Grafinn Eliabulon might have timed her vote in a sinister plot to save…herself. It's a fair strategy, I guess. Understandable. When you think about it, "trying to stay alive" isn't a very suspicious goal; I think I may be one of the few not really trying it out right now, given how much I'm making myself into a mark by helping the innocents. Second, Lesley doesn't pay attention to the rules, tries to split votes, doesn't contribute to strategic discussions, and cast the deciding vote that covered someone I'm pretty damn sure is connected with the Possessed in some way. The more I analyze things, Lesley, the more you look like someone who's been busted early and is desperately flailing now that the heat is on. If there was a way to take out both you and Reppik at the same time, I think we on this bus would be the safer for it. Finally, Crimson. Okay, it's not like we were probably going to convict anyone at that point—and I'm still not seeing that much evidence in favor of kicking Joostein out—but minor point of suspicion.
I would also like to point out to Crimson that the Red Cat Goddess's favored champion tends to prevail even when she is evil, and that the Forces of Good triumph even when the champion is killed.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey sipped on her Irish coffee and wondered how long it would take the queue to the loo to go through. She had been watching and counting. With two votes still to come in (from Reppik Tew & Daisy) it looked like the anger between the passengers had all died down. No one was going to be sent after the engine today. But she had been watching to see who was being very pushy.
She didn't think it was Reppik Tew who had, as far as she could tell, only tried to make everyone feel better. This either made him a healer or a very clever and strange bit of metal indeed. The Zexte angel man certainly didn't like him, and had tried to lead the charge to have him evicted. The Graffin had voted consistently and in the middle of the pack. The Norwegian wrestler had thrown about many accusations and voted near the end as had the brown robed monk.
Choey listened to her bowels rumbling ominously and wondered if she should offer the chocolate around again. Night would be falling soon.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
Alright, thoughts. We're as good as done with voting, so we might as well try summing up our first day. Remember, there's no such thing as information overload with this many minds processing things; what one of us might miss, another might catch. What you think trivial might be exactly the key piece someone else needed.
Joostein Käse: Nominated someone, was counternominated, In fairness, nominating the Grafinna almost makes sense if you haven't met her kind before. Fine, there's some weirdness with the language, but I imagine I'm not much more comprehensible than the rest of you. I think a translator could be arranged—after all, it's not like we're really going to be needing the steering circuitry any time soon, I think some engineering could happen…
Hophtrig: Annoying as fuck, if in a somewhat minimally amusing way to certain individuals if you stop and look at it every once in a while. Some of his ideas aren't the best—as others, myself included, have pointed out before, there are ways for investigators to deduce their reliability without colluding and voting off someone as a test, especially since that risks blowing their cover—but I'm leaning towards just bad ideas/floating hairbrained schemes to see what works rather than malice. Slightly more or less than mildly suspicious.
Ja'ayem: Generally sensible, alert, and trying to come up with good ideas. Either a really sneaky Possessed—albeit one trying to shoot itself in the foot by being at least somewhat helpful—or someone innocent. I reserve the right to change my mind, but, even if he's guilty, he's being helpful enough to us at the moment to not be expelled.
Crimson: A prime candidate for investigation—devotees of the Red Cat Goddess are known to be as inscrutible and deadly as their patron deity. Inconspicuous? Check. Giving reasonable advice? Check. Has motivations of its own about which we can only speculate? Megacheck. Overtly asking for protection against the Possessed, however, does raise suspicions—especially since I've been sticking my neck out so far lately. Right now, I'm just calling it Inscrutable.
Codine: Silent during nomination/discussion, a late an immaterial vote for TESS. Could simply be doing their master's bidding. Who knows?
Lesley: Squirming like a rabbit in a snare. Someone's done been busted. In addition to the previous counts against her—shitstirring, information suppression, signal-to-noise, noncontribution, vote manipulation—we now have not paying attention to nominations, inconsistency of behavior (why the sudden silence once you got fingered, dear?), scapegoating/cape waving ("everybody look at Hophtrig, not me! Hophtrig! He's annoying! Not me! Him!"), and, to cap it all off, casting the deciding vote that would save Reppik Tew, whom I suspect of being her partner in Possession. Boy howdy, does somebody sure look guilty.
Grafinn Eliabulon: Nothing to see here folks, move along. The ideas may be questionable—perhaps decent in theory, but good luck getting anyone to agree with any of them—but, again, typical. Acting normal could be a really clever ruse, or it could just be her being normal. I suspect we'll see soon enough.
Lucy: Talkative, helpful, attentive, and no suspicious vote patterns. To all appearances, someone who is engaged, but not dominating things. Likely innocent, but could be keeping a perfectly calibrated profile. Perhaps another good choice for investigation, though she might be helpful enough to us given her general sense to be worth not lynching. A Possessed One who shoots themselves in the foot by giving good counsel is somewhat less scary.
Reppik Tew, where are you? You seem to have hidden once the voting started. In fact, you seem to have never bothered to defend yourself, other than to say you learned from my accusations (learned what? That you needed to hide your guilt better?) and accused Lesley in what I suspect is either a throwaway accusation of a fellow Possessed, or your sacrificing a member of the Cult of the Possessors of Nature who is unknown to you. You don't have as many "we'll kick you out just because you're being dumb" points as Lesley does, but I think your attempts to suppress information, non-voting, and utter and complete lack of any attempts to defend yourself against my accusations—no, waving a red cape and telling us to look at Lesley is not a defense—makes you look absolutely guilty. Lesley may be part of the Cult, reliant on rigging votes to kill us off, but I think you're one of the Possessed. While I have greater confidence in something being Not Right with Lesley, I think it more likely you're Possessed.
Daisy: Fail to Daisy, Fail to Daisy, come in Daisy, do you read me? This is Dimthing Bus to Daisy, we've lost all communications with you, over?
Otto: Low profile, not much to say, very low signal-to-noise, more accusations than reasoning. Suspicious.
John: Lots of ideas, very helpful, perhaps a bit of a pacifist, but overall a helpful sort. Perhaps his religious training has taught him how to put on a good face in times of stress and suspicion when others need counseling, but, at worst, he's a self-defeating Possessed. Plus, he brings good beer. By the way, did I mention you'll find another bottle or two of it in your bag? It was worth copying.
Cho Bacca: Low signal-to-noise, not much in the way of helpfulness, seems to be scared of the idea of taking action against the Possessed, and might just be suspicious of the wrong people. Could be guilty, could be just creating noise. More than mildly suspicious in my opinion.
Ios: Mostly quiet, low profile, seems clever, helpful lately. Voted late to evict Joostein, which may not mean anything. Inscrutible. Perhaps a good target for investigation?
Zapaterietxe: Yes, me. Overbearing, talkative, bloodthirsty me. Yes, fine, I've been pretty darn helpful, I've been trying to get as much information as possible out on the table, I've been clamping down on the usual shitstirrers who might go after the Grafinn or try to create two factions supporting or opposed to one or the both of us (don't even), and I've been generally making a big red flashing neon "KILL ME" sign on my back for the Possessed. Right, yes, I know that you can all see it since I just coalesced one, but that's for dramatic emphasis, okay? I know that, without someone watching over me tonight (yes, even angels need guardians), I'm probably getting sent back to the Beyond, the Inverted World of the Absolute. And, to put it mildly, that would be incompletely ideal. But, for the good of all, for the survival of the whole, the part, me, can—must—take that risk. There's a possibility I won't die if I do help, if I do attract attention, but a certainty that we all fall to the Possessed if none of us rise to the occasion.
So, my guesses for tonight:
Innocent: Joostein Käse, Ja'ayem (good thing I caught that I missed him!) Hophtrig, Codine, Me, Grafinn Eliabulon, Lucy, John
No Idea: Crimson, Daisy, Ios
Possessed or Cultist: Lesley, Reppik Tew, Otto, Choey
[ 05. March 2014, 19:25: Message edited by: Ariston ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Ariston wrote:
Ios—TESS
This is wrong. Ios voted to defenestrate Joostein.
[ 05. March 2014, 19:26: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
The votes:
Lucy—TESS
Choey—TESS
Me (Terietxe)—Reppik Tew
Ja'ayem—TESS
Otto—Joostein
Hophtrig—TESS
Grafinn Eliabulon—Joostein*
and, since last time:
Lesley—failed vote for Hophtrig, then TESS†
Crimson—TESS**
John—TESS
Codine—TESS
Ios—TESS
Joostein Käse—TESS
*Precludes conviction of Grafinn Eliabulon and Lesley †Now impossible to convict Reppik **Impossible to convict Joostein
Not voting: Daisy, Reppik Tew
Ios voted for Joostein. Not sure if that matters or not; it certainly was too late to make any difference.
[ 05. March 2014, 19:26: Message edited by: Barefoot Friar ]
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
quote:
Ariston wrote:
Ios—TESS
This is wrong. Ios voted to defenestrate Joostein.
…And sometimes, even my records are wrong. Right, corrected against the transcript.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto had no reason for voting other than the feather boa constrictor's preference, yet Grafinn voted the same as he, probably to try to hide something. Hophtrig initially went along with this nomination, but was scared away by the FBC or some other more sinister plot. Otto is of course innocent. The FBC said so. Otto is undertaking now, that most dangerous of habits - thinking, and the FBC is having a nap.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
I pretty much agree with your assessment, Zapa.
I was a bit pacifist at first because I didn't think starting a bandwagon was the best idea this early. We've got a hell of a lot more info now than we did at the beginning, and now I'm confident we have enough to start prosecuting some of those sonar returns.
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
I pretty much agree with your assessment, Zapa.
Likewise.
I think I still believe that Hoptrig's idea is a non-goer, though he does make a point that raises a little concern, could a fake detective do us harm? I don't think so as we'll find out somethings wrong immediately but it's something I hadn't considered*.
If I'm wrong and we should go with it then we need to chose the sacrificial lamb quickly as else we'll miss the chance.
Not entirely sure about the section about you, Zapp. It was mentioned earlier that everything can be read both ways. If you have been sincerely clamping then you probably have made yourself a target. Alternatively if you were bad you'd also want to paint yourself as a victim.
But I think it's a question that all self-analysis look suspicious.
Regardless we should add what we learn from your post.
If you're innocent, we pretty much learn what you said and things are boringly short. There's no reason for us to not suspect this of being the case (I suppose one conclusion is I probably look slightly bad for being the one to consider the other case, and for it looking like I was putting more emphasis on it).
If you were guilty then it looks like you're potentially straight out covering or flattering Graffin. John/Lucy/Hoptrig (if I weren't me I'd put me here or as you make a point of mentioning me, with Graffin) would be a bit more subtle.
Leslie and Reppik would be the opposite either being blatantly framed or double bluff. Crimson/Choo/Otto the weaker version. (and some of the others could have been ignored as not a threat or to protect them with obscurity).
Which as yet doesn't really help us and is consistent with any set of mafia (and any single first night detective result). But as we gain more knowledge. There might be a suspicious change in behavior when the stakes are higher.
Similarly Crimson is tied in with the fates of Rev&Zak but not in a way that yet allows much to be said.
And a whole pile of us look funny if Hoptrig's plan is optimal or non-lynching suboptimal. I don't think either are the case.
*otherwise just on sharing results they can be pretty near certain.
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
Reppik Tew, where are you?
Reppik's face awoke, and he "spoke"
I have been...elsewhere. Pre-occupied. And it is not that i "did not vote" - by my calculations I still have time to vote. However, given that others have voted so quickly and we are all safe, my vote is meaningless.
One reason I have been preoccupied, and did not immediately follow up my nomination of Lesley by voting for her was guilt. Guilt that I had been guided and goaded into nominating an innocent by those who would see us all tear each other to shreds and spare them the work.
As Zapaterietxe pointed out in that eloquent and accusatory deconstruction of my logic, a few people cast aspersions, suspicions, on Lesley, but did not bring themselves to nominate her.
And then I, as Zapaterietxe even seemed to anticipate, I nominated Lesley - yes to deflect attention to myself, who wouldn't, and to show I agreed with the others' suspicions - but afterwards I became aware that I may have stumbled completely into a trap, influenced by 4 malevolent people into putting forward a sacrificial, innocent lamb for lynching.
I did not say anything straight away, as that could have alerted them that their ruse was "rumbled".
My responsibilities in other temporal dimensions mean I am only now able to speak, and I am relieved to see that my impetuousness did not lead to Lesley's demise.
Lesley, if you are innocent, then I apologize for my "malleability" in following through with other suspicions
And if you are not innocent, I realise the futility in trying to appeal to your better nature to look beyond me towards those who are a greater risk to you - and how selfish that would look to my fellow travelers, as the removal of any innocent is to the detriment of all of us.
For what it is worth, to those who would make note and theorise upon it, I vote "No Lynching"
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
I find I am still rather unconvinced, old bean.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
Might I ask all players to please have spaces in their inboxes in case I need to communicate with you? Thank you.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig was asleep, sorry.
Hophtrig had a dream, it was tomorrow, someone said
"You played right into my hands, possesed people, I investigated [unintelligible] and you threw them off. Now I know, I am the detective."
Someone else responded
"Zat is vunderfööl, now I know zat I am inspector Lestrade. Zerefore [unintelligible] must be guilty, for I investigated zem and found zem innocent".
Hophtrig doesn't remember any of the names they were using, and he couldn't pick who was speaking.
Then Hophtrig saw it was the next day, and someone was weeping, saying
"We threw [unintelligible] off because you said [unintelligible] was guilty. [unintelligible] wasn't. You lied",
to which the response was given
"I did nöt lie, zö I must be ze detective and ze uzzer guy must haf been lyink"
Then Hophtrig woke up and he was scared. Zapaterietxe, can Hophtrig hug you, Hophtrig's frightened and you're so confident and brave.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Wait just a sec and I'll put on some Bob Marley. Oh, where do you want me to hang the marijuana leaf poster and bead curtain?
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
And so, I look over your "defense," Reppik Tew, and see two things: trying to deflect the blame onto others, and a complete and utter lack of any attempt to justify your actions. I've laid any number of reasons to suspect you at your feet; admitting to handwaving and saying it's all someone else's fault doesn't answer any of them, I'm afraid.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alban:
Then Hophtrig woke up and he was scared. Zapaterietxe, can Hophtrig hug you, Hophtrig's frightened and you're so confident and brave.
I'm a being who coalesces some semblance of a body out of air when he's not merging his consciousness with the furniture. I'm not sure there's much to hug, but…well, how about a bit of warm, soft breeze localized around your person? It should go well with whatever John is pulling out of his bag…oh, um, I don't think a television personality should be seen around those, however. Let's stick to just jammin' for now.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
No, man. Be cool. I'm just sayin' ol' Hoppy here be trippin'.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Thank you Zapaterietxe, that's nice.
I get scared by my dreams sometimes. That and the dark and nasty people, I'm glad we're all friends here.
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
Crimson: A prime candidate for investigation—devotees of the Red Cat Goddess are known to be as inscrutible and deadly as their patron deity. Inconspicuous? Check. Giving reasonable advice? Check. Has motivations of its own about which we can only speculate? Megacheck. Overtly asking for protection against the Possessed, however, does raise suspicions—especially since I've been sticking my neck out so far lately. Right now, I'm just calling it Inscrutable.
Crimson isn't any more inscrutable than it is ever is. If a detecting being would like to investigate it, it is more than welcome to do so. Crimson has nothing to hide.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
Ze corrections:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
The votes:
Lucy—TESS
Choey—TESS
Me (Terietxe)—Reppik Tew
Ja'ayem—TESS
Otto—Joostein
Hophtrig—TESS
Grafinn Eliabulon—Joostein*
and, since last time:
Lesley—failed vote for Hophtrig, then TESS†
Crimson—TESS**
John—TESS
Codine—TESS
Ios—TESS (in fact is vas Joostein as somevun has already said)
Joostein Käse—TESS
*Precludes conviction of Grafinn Eliabulon and Lesley †Now impossible to convict Reppik **Impossible to convict Joostein
Not voting: Daisy, Reppik Tew
You have ze timings wrong. Ven I voted, zere ver eight people left to vote, and as eight are needed to kill, it vas not me, but (strangely enough) Lesley zat made it impossible to lynch me (as vell as herself).
Crimson's vote put Reppick out of danger, und John's vote made ze rest irrelevant (for lynching purposes as least) because after zat zere ver only five to vote und Joostein had only two votes for him. Vich vas ze highest.
I am still thinking of vat all zis means.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
Daisy: Fail to Daisy, Fail to Daisy, come in Daisy, do you read me? This is Dimthing Bus to Daisy, we've lost all communications with you, over?
Daisy hasn't been seen since Saturday. Surfing Madness hasn't been onboard since Monday, and that was in All Saints. She may have been lurking since then, but I actually kind of doubt it. She said on the first page that she thought real life would interfere and thus didn't know if she would be able to post much.
I'm not ready to clear Daisy all the way yet, but my gut feeling is that she's not Possessed. Why would Dafyd give her that job (or any job) if she posted she might not be able to post much?
It also suggests that if we're waiting for her to vote before we can proceed, perhaps we should just move on. I've noticed a couple "clear your PM box" type posts, both here and in All Saints. Is her PM box full?
Not many answers, I'm afraid, but I'm disinclined to suspect her at the moment. At any rate, a minimally-involved Possessed doesn't scare me nearly as much as a very involved one. If she is Possessed, we'll smoke her out eventually, but I'd rather go after the dangerous ones first.
[ 06. March 2014, 10:39: Message edited by: Barefoot Friar ]
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Crimsoon, Zäppy, hoow gooes woorkings oon trä... träns... tränsexuälistitätoor? Rædy befoore winter därkness fällings?
Joostein wäntings light in därkness foocus oon slimy turn oof woords. Loook oout, foolks noot äll retoort best oof Joostein änd ootherseses pooints but turn pooints intoo oother lesser pooints and shoove äwäy.
Joostein never säyings Gräfinn tälk too much, but too unfoocused änd tooo brooad. Æsy foor päviän coounter, just moove froom coover oof äll too prä... prä... präcticäl pooints, with list oof three toop nämes. Instæd coounter with wæk pooint änd oof-boos-list Joostein.
Noote whooings cätch oon Gräfinn's pooint oof Joostein säyings "too much tälk". Loook like spin, tæm effoort. Zäppy quick turnings froom think Gräfinn oodd too Gräfinn just Gräfinn, änd froom thinking pooints too Joostein's woords to think it just äboout Gräfinn's "too much tälk". Säme thing with Coodeine.
Noone oof this be clær signs, thoough. Coould be Joostein's coomplex froom oolder broother (mäy he rest bäckstäbbed in Härdänger Fjoord until Rägnäröök wäs loong goone) oof yooung äge änd wish too be hærd. Coould be thoought oof poossessessed snäkes licking ær of Joostein in sleep. Coould be mäd with pärä... pär... pärälleloonooiä änd noot wäntings being mäde foool. Joostein noot like mäde fool, loooked doown oonings, änd noot hærd.
Äskings foolk still loookings ät such twistings, froom äll and soondry, äsk why. (Gräfinn doon't need too. Smärt enoough änywäys. Why?)
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
I'm not ready to clear Daisy all the way yet, but my gut feeling is that she's not Possessed. Why would Dafyd give her that job (or any job) if she posted she might not be able to post much?
I have no feel for whether Daisy is possessed or not, but I don't think we should think of it this way. I would assume Dafyd did it randomly, and if Daisy got picked by the random numbers, I would guess she's possessed.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
A number of wandering, random thoughts.
1. Joostein, I'm not saying you are wrong. However, I'm not currently convinced by your evidence that Eliabulon is guilty. I think if she is guilty, it will be readily apparent before long. I think the better course of action would be to go after the ones who look most guilty, and do so in a way that will flush out their compatriots. We also need a bit of time for our inspectors to do their jobs.
2. I think the intent behind Hophtrig's idea is fine, but I think the application is pointless. Honestly, there's no need to waste both investigations and a lynching just to see which one is which. That will become apparent to the detectives themselves by the time the they declare -- maybe as soon as in the morning, depending on the random chance of who gets investigated and who gets killed. I think the much wiser option is for them to start investigating the unknowns and suspected Possessed. Hopefully they can do so without both investigating the same people, but I don't know how in the world we could coordinate that, especially without the Possessed twigging on them and then going after them.
3. At any rate, Hophtrig keeps pushing this idea. I'm beginning to wonder why -- especially since he offered to be the one who self-sacrifices. I'm not putting criminal intent with it, just wondering.
4. I think that we have good, solid reasons to suspect Reppik and Lesley. I further think that if the detectives investigate one or both and come up with an innocent verdict they should take it with a grain of salt. Let's prosecute these two and get the definitive answer when they go out the airlock. At the same time, we don't need to split votes too far and thus miss lynching anyone. I'm not advocating mindless following of the leader, but I am advocating that we shelve the lesser suspects for the time being until we've gotten the clearer ones. I think enough will come out in those discussions that if we've been led astray we will be able to see it, and if it turns out we were right, it clears some people by association and makes them easier to trust. So instead of going after Eliabulon, let's go after Reppik and/or Lesley and see what shakes out. We can trust our investigators to do their jobs, and we will end up with more info than before.
5. There isn't much left to hash at the moment; we're mainly waiting on night to fall and then morning to come. I would caution against assigning ill motive to those who fall silent between now and morning. Depending on whether or not we are waiting for Daisy to vote, we may well be to our deadline before things move on. We aren't news anchors; there are a limited number of ways to re-state things before it becomes tedious.
6. Codine, good point. Thinking back over it, it could be read one of several ways, all of which are inconclusive. We shall see in the end, I suppose.
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
...Hopefully they can do so without both investigating the same people, but I don't know how in the world we could coordinate that, especially without the Possessed twigging on them and then going after them.
The two detectives aspect of the game has left me wondering about ways to do that, and to communicate assent/etc... I don't think there's a perfect way, and I'm not sure about it's 'sportmanship' if there was one. One key factor would be how closely it approximated a PM and another how ugly it looked.
A preplanned shared 'dice throw' is easy (or at least if someone can fix the lottery, I doubt they'd show it off here) and potentially useful (but may have similar issues).
Prior to knowing the roles I'm pretty sure there isn't a guaranteed one anyway: the best I can think of is that we could go clockwise on a shared loop then there's a ever increasing chance of one detective following another, and the mafia have some information. I suspect any solution will be isomorphic to this.
With known roles we can perfectly co-ordinate the lists. It might be possible with the suspected roles after tonight.
Oh! maybe there is a way we can theoretically do better with a maximum of one duplicate and it might be made hard for the mafia to trace. The roles have an asymmetry that might be exploitable.
But that would take some poor chap ages and I'm not sure enough it would work...and I need to get back to RL. A listing "If you investigate X and you see X as guilty investigate Y" would need to be constructed for each person with care.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
I am remembering und thinking.
Zis deserves an answer. It is a good qvestion.
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
Something else interesting is that Eliabulon counts Codine and Cho Bacca a "keeping ze rules", despite the fact that neither one has actually added to the conversation. Cho Bacca affirmed a no lynching vote (although the polls weren't open yet, so you'll have to do it again, I think), and that's it. Otto, Cho Bacca, and Codine have all posted at least once, and it's just static. So this may be a subtle attempt at clearing two of the Misguided, or it may be the simple mistake of an innocent who wants a contribution of any sort, whether or not it is helpful.
Zat is because ze rule is “everyvun must speak”.
Ze rule is not “everyvun must say something useful”. Ze rule is “everyvun must speak”.
Vy is zis? Vould it not be good if everyvun ver useful? Ja, it vould, but zat is not going to happen.
Some people cannot be useful. Some people may not have thought of anything useful to say yet. Some people may think zat zey are useful ven zey are not. Some people do not think zat finding ze murderers can even be done vith logic so zey do not bozzer to be useful. Und, vile all zese people are useless, zey are not all killers. Zese things are not proof of guilt. I vish it ver zat easy. But it is not.
Do I vish people to be useful? Of course. But I did not make ze rules to make people do vot I vish. Zis is not ze Wrik, und my vord is not law here. Vich is a shame. So instead I made ze rules so zat ve could see who is guilty.
If you can be useful as vell, zen do zat. But vether you think you have anything useful to say or not, ve learn more if everyvun says something zan if some are silent.
[ 06. March 2014, 19:39: Message edited by: Eliab ]
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Oh no, Graffin Ekaterina, everyone on this bus is a good friend and is useful. If you listen to them you can understand a lot of what is going on with them through what they have to say, which makes them useful.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Some people did talk a lot, thought Choey, as she hopped impatiently from one foot to the other in the queue. She wished some of those ahead of her would talk less, and er, 'do' a bit more.
Of those talking a lot, it seemed there were two different camps emerging; one centred around the Zapper, and the other around the Grafinn. She suspected alliances would emerge, and John seemed to be very much on the Zapping side.
She had never really much seen the point in talking, as she had been able to navigate the universe perfectly well so far without the gift of speech. She opened a packet of barley sugars and offered them around. The queue did not seem to be moving at all, unlike her digestive system.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
Some people did talk a lot, thought Choey, as she hopped impatiently from one foot to the other in the queue. She wished some of those ahead of her would talk less, and er, 'do' a bit more.
Of those talking a lot, it seemed there were two different camps emerging; one centred around the Zapper, and the other around the Grafinn. She suspected alliances would emerge, and John seemed to be very much on the Zapping side.
Hm. Interesting. Someone who talks a lot and does little complains about others not doing much—and, dare I point it out, there are only two camps on this bus, and they have been decided: one of the Possessed, and one of the innocent.
Not to be harsh, but until we have some legitimate reason to think that either the Grafinn or I are guilty, then any attempts to claim we are on different sides, or to assign people to them, should be regarded as shitstirring. Forgive me for being so hard on what is, I hope, merely trying to move the discussion along, but there has been, as best I can tell, no suspicion of her on my part, nor of me on hers—and I don't take attempts to create the impression of such a division lightly.
Our only advantage over the Possessed is that we are many. As soon as we fragment, we are nothing. They will attempt to create divisions; above all else, we must avoid letting this happen. While discussion must take place—and please, understand this is not a rebuke, nor an attempt to stop you from talking—we must avoid even the impression of faction, an impression our common enemies will try to exploit.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Choey told you that something you talked about is, indeed, stirring, that's why Choey's joined the long line.
Hophtrig thinks that both Zapaterietxe and Graffin Ekaterina are leaders, and leaders look for people to follow them. That is their style, but having two leaders can mean that the friends on the bus make up groups under them. Hopefully we can all be friends together, not in two groups, and I think Zapaterietxe wants that to happen.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey decided that some people were just impossible to please. The Zapit angel had so far accused her of not talking enough, of talking too much, of being suspicious, and of deliberate shit-stirring. Perhaps the angel man just wanted to find something, indeed anything, about which he could be cross with her. If he wanted to find a shit-stirrer then maybe he should look in a mirror.
She fished in her pouch and pulled out a roll of toilet paper. It was going to be needed very soon.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
Choey decided that some people were just impossible to please.
Pretty much. Until we're all off this bus alive (with three exceptions), I'm probably going to be a wee bit testy and suspicious of most everything. Comes with the territory of having a murderous bunch of killers after you—like I said, I don't mean to offend (unless you're murderous and evil, in which case, up yours), but the more I go over things, the more everybody looks suspicious. Even people agreeing with me looks like flattery to get me and others to stop looking at what they say.
Is it still paranoia even if you know They are out to get you?
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
Choey decided that some people were just impossible to please. The Zapit angel had so far accused her of not talking enough, of talking too much, of being suspicious, and of deliberate shit-stirring. Perhaps the angel man just wanted to find something, indeed anything, about which he could be cross with her. If he wanted to find a shit-stirrer then maybe he should look in a mirror.
I'm with you.
Still not eating any of your food, though.
Posted by Starbug (# 15917) on
:
Lady Celandine heard Choey rustling the toilet paper behind her. As Daddy was so important, she was used to making munificent gestures to those of a lower class. 'Besides, who wanted an accident in such a confined space? 'My dear,' she said, 'Your need is greater than mine. I insist.' She waved Choey ahead of her with a gracious smile.
[ 07. March 2014, 05:43: Message edited by: Starbug ]
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alban:
Hophtrig thinks that both Zapaterietxe and Graffin Ekaterina are leaders, and leaders look for people to follow them. That is their style, but having two leaders can mean that the friends on the bus make up groups under them.
The more that I think about it (hey, having an unseen enemy after you makes you a bit restless), the less I'm sure I'm actually too keen on being thought of as a leader—and certainly less than eager to have a group following me. If anything, I'd rather see people pointing out what I missed, or what they saw that I didn't; what are the holes in arguments I'm overlooking, where did I miscount, where does this matter, where doesn't it, why does Lesley jump in from nowhere with one-liners (and why has she stopped repeating things?), who are the sycophants I'm not suspecting, will the Possessed try to take out someone who gives us no information, are they looking for an investigator, do their guesses as to who the investigators are match mine, was that really a subtle hint from someone that I saw or just my imagination, how could they signal their investigations to us subtly enough to influence us without themselves being noticed, and can I finish Joostein's translator before daybreak?
Actually, that last one's easy enough. We weren't using that bit of fabric from the captain's chair anyway, so I've transmuted it into a nice Thor's Hammer translator badge for you. I'll just merge myself in and finish the programming…
Zapaterietxe disappears as the badge he was holding hovers in midair. It floats through the air as on an unseen breeze before pinning itself to Joostein's cloak.
[ 07. March 2014, 09:38: Message edited by: Ariston ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
So long as it doesn't work like this one.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
[W]hy does Lesley jump in from nowhere with one-liners (and why has she stopped repeating things?)...?
Probably for the same reason that I've discarded the descriptive text and quotation marks. It was cute the first couple or three pages, but now it's just a pain in the butt. I trust readers will imagine the quotation marks, and if I get a wild hair I may write a scene a bit later.
Have you noticed Hophtrig has been getting less and less annoying since page 1? I was ready to kick him off when the bus first went down just for that one reason, but he's not bothering me now.
The others have largely kept their writing habits. Maybe that makes me suspicious, and if so I'll begrudgingly go back to it, but only to make whomever feel more comfortable.
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
Our only advantage over the Possessed is that we are many. As soon as we fragment, we are nothing.
This, and similar statements, are a large part of why I think you're one of the good guys. I cannot conceive a Possessed saying this, because causing division and chaos is how they win. A divided bus will lose, and lose easily, as the innocents do their work for them. A bus that works together and tries to clear the innocents instead of allowing themselves to be divided and slaughtered has a very, very good chance at winning.
You have worked to end the potential rift between you and Eliabulon. You've worked to clear as many innocents as you can. Actually, you've done more work than anyone here. Thus, if you're Possessed, you've just killed your chances. The only way that could be untrue is if both you and Eliabulon are Possessed and lying your ever livin' heads off, in which case may St. Zylvx have mercy on your soul.
So tomorrow if we lynch someone that you've been telling us is guilty and they turn out to be innocent, you better have a pretty damned good explanation. We might give you one pass, because everyone makes mistakes and because people act suspicious as hell even when they're innocent. But do remember we might not be too patient, and we might decide that you're as good a candidate for lynching as any. All I'm saying is, if you're innocent we'll stand alongside you. If you're guilty we will find out and we will end you.
Posted by Surfing Madness (# 11087) on
:
Sorry real life interfered in a way I wasn't expecting. Am I right in thinking that this round it won't make any difference how I vote? Will try and catch up with you all over the weekend.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Surfing Madness:
Am I right in thinking that this round it won't make any difference how I vote?
No Lynching has already received a majority of votes, so the only difference it could make is if you wanted to send some kind of signal to the group as a whole.
Dimthing Tours are pleased to announce that you have collectively decided not to throw any of your number out of the bus. How civilized of you. We are also pleased to announce that the lights on the bus have just gone out.
Any entities among you with additional senses beyond the human five will find that they are useless for perceiving the movements of your fellow passengers due to interference from the x-tonic radiation outside the bus. We apologise for any inconvenience this may cause.
The lights are predicted to return by 8am Monday UK time. If any of you have any activities you would like to perform without the knowledge of your fellow passengers (by which I mean the doctor, detective (genuine and otherwise), and the malevolent eldritch entities partnership) please pm me over the weekend.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
John heard the announcement come over the radio, just about the time the lights blinked and went out. It was so utterly dark that he couldn't see his hand in front of his face.
He felt around for his bag, reached inside and pulled out something.
"Well," he began, "I know the announcement said that we wouldn't be able to see. But that guy wasn't planning on the fact that...
"I have a flashlight!"
And he pressed the switch.
The cabin of the bus was bathed in light! It was a miracle. Though terribly archaic, the power of AA batteries and LEDs couldn't be beat for simplicity.
Except that just about then the bulbs grew dim, flickered, and unceremoniously died, victim of too many dark nights and too much sideline radiation. Not even replacing the batteries worked.
John huddled deeper into his seat.
The bus fell silent, and began to grow cold. John rooted around in his pack again and brought out blankets, passing them to everyone that wanted one. "Do try not to get blood on them if you get killed," he said, trying to find dark humor in the situation.
No one laughed. It was just as well.
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
[W]hy does Lesley jump in from nowhere with one-liners (and why has she stopped repeating things?)...?
Probably for the same reason that I've discarded the descriptive text and quotation marks. It was cute the first couple or three pages, but now it's just a pain in the butt. I trust readers will imagine the quotation marks, and if I get a wild hair I may write a scene a bit later.
Also just about every person doing the finger- pointing currently has mentioned it as a mark of suspicion.
Also it is very hard to protest that you are INNOCENT! INNOCENT damn it! When you have to wait for someone else to say it first.
Also there is second hand marijuana smoke in the air, and that renders Lesley more capable of a lot of things.
Pass the dutchie.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey was grateful to Lady Celandine for letting her get ahead in the queue to the sanitation cubicle. Someone had been in there an awfully long time. She suspected it was Daisy. What was she doing in there? Things were getting desperate.
Choey had just pulled a large plastic bag out of her pouch to deal with what could be a... 'personal emergency' , when the lights on the bus went out.
What excellent timing, she thought.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig gets more quiet and pensive when adversity strikes. Hophtrig hopes his friends are not too offended if Hophtrig is not as enthusiastic and demonstrative as he was at the beginning of our journey. Hophtrig can try being more enthusiastic and bouncy, once someone turns the lights on. Until then, Hophtrig will be happy here, curled up in a little ball under a seat.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
Just to remind everyone with night actions who hasn't taken their night action yet - you have just over twelve hours before the lights come back on at 8am tomorrow UK time. I will listen sympathetically to pleas for more time if they come in before then.
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
Choey was grateful to Lady Celandine for letting her get ahead in the queue to the sanitation cubicle. Someone had been in there an awfully long time. She suspected it was Daisy. What was she doing in there? Things were getting desperate.
Choey had just pulled a large plastic bag out of her pouch to deal with what could be a... 'personal emergency' , when the lights on the bus went out.
What excellent timing, she thought.
Greaaat.
Posted by Surfing Madness (# 11087) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Kelly Alves:
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
Choey was grateful to Lady Celandine for letting her get ahead in the queue to the sanitation cubicle. Someone had been in there an awfully long time. She suspected it was Daisy. What was she doing in there? Things were getting desperate.
Choey had just pulled a large plastic bag out of her pouch to deal with what could be a... 'personal emergency' , when the lights on the bus went out.
What excellent timing, she thought.
Greaaat.
I promise it wasn't me in there forever.....
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Are Choey and her companions sure they're queueing at the loo door, or is it the door to the private apartment of Codine's master? Or are the two doors the same thing? Anyway, it's so dark, there's no way of telling.
Hophtrig thought he heard noises in the dark. This is scary, Hophtrig will need a big hug, or a warm gale, when the lights come back.
[Edit: Hophtrig finds it difficult to voice his thoughts accurately first time 'round, when it's so dark]
[ 09. March 2014, 18:37: Message edited by: Alban ]
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alban:
Are Choey and her companions sure they're queueing at the loo door, or is it the door to the private apartment of Codine's master? Or are the two doors the same thing?
Full disclosure: I have no idea what the fuck I am doing. Anyone's choice as to whether that is an act or not.
[ 10. March 2014, 00:34: Message edited by: Kelly Alves ]
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
Dimthing Tours are pleased to announce that the lights have come back on.
Unfortunately, while the lights were out Crimson (La Vie en Rouge) was murdered. She was the Police Inspector. We apologise for any inconvenience.
Nominations for voting please.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig will miss Crimson. Crimson was a clever machine, and was a good friend. We will miss Crimson.
At least now, the person who was confused about whether they knew who was naughty or nice isn't confused now. Hophtrig's idea would not have been any use, Hophtrig offers apologies for being so pushy. We have a problem, a big problem, Crimson could have been so much help in fixing this bus, and she's gone.
Hophtrig thinks our friend Otto looks fabulous, but Otto is very quiet for someone so flamboyant. Hophtrig thinks he may just be trying to get people to throw someone off the bus, without saying much to make his friends suspicious. Maybe, if our friend Otto goes to get the engine back for us, we will be able to trust him?
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on
:
Crimson fights desparately against the hacking of its algorithms.
In the last moments as it realises it's going down, it refracts itself in the mirror one last time.
'I told you the doctor should be protecting me.'
[OOC: Don't worry, I'm not bitter.
]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
I nominate Reppik Tew. Partly because I'm mean like that. Partly because he's avoided making any real input, and in fact has tried to skirt the whole issue. Partly because it just seems like the right thing to do.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
The red Inspector is dead? Choey pulled a rainbow coloured thinking cap out of her pouch and jammed it hard on her own head. This was going to take some concentration. And concentrate she would, now that she had made it successfully and satisfyingly through the sanitation cubicle. ( It really would not be wise for anyone else to go in for a while).
The only one who had previously accused Crimson was Hophtrig. Hophtrig has just nominated the rather quiet (but fabulous) Otto. Zapaterietxe and John had also previously suggested Otto. Could the three of them be working together? Or were they all being a little bit snakey about a feather boa that wouldn't stay still?
She wondered how one might lynch a feather boa constrictor. This could become very interesting indeed.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig is very sorry. Hophtrig and his friend Joostein were very wrong when they put Crimson on their lists of 3. Crimson was a good friend and now she's g... g... gone.
Hophtrig is a silly little creature, Hophtrig doesn't know very much most of the time, but Hophtrig tries to be helpful, Hophtrig does. Hophtrig is very sorry, Choey, Hophtrig and Joostein should never have listed Crimson. Please can you forgive Hophtrig? Can Hophtrig please have a hug? Please?
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Codine sighed. "Now that is a hit. We needed our detectives. Having two seemed like one of our best advantages. Oh and because one is sorry for Crimson, of course. My master will not be pleased to hear this.
Hophtrig will be glad to know that my master makes his own doors, so do not worry that you will accidentally meet him on your way to the convenience.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto looks at Hophtrig and asks the FBC to looks at him also. Otto re-notices that Hophtrig had voted as Otto suggested in the past, suspicious because Otto had no fabulous nor unfabulous nor FBC reason for it, and then covered himself up by pretending. Hophtrig looks suspicious to the FBC as well. Not saying voting, but saying wondering....
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
Ja'ayem looked in shock. One of the two detectives gone so soon. He had vaguely wondered what would happen if something went wrong on the second night (when there would have been more important people and a thinner crowd).
But this, that meant the race for information would be very close.
As far as I can tell we need to do 3 things:
a) Avoid lynching anyone the detective finds innocent
b) Avoid making the detective stand out
c) Not damage our chances of lynching a mafia
One we can do perfectly. Any two we could probably do reasonably well at*, all three...not so good.
* e.g. random lynching (B&C), everyone gets a veto (A&B), detective outing (A&C).
Posted by Starbug (# 15917) on
:
Lady Celandine emerged from the facilities looking a trifle more pale than before she went in. Allowing Choey to go first had not been a wise move. Not that her breeding would allow her to show this. Why, she had hardly batted an eyelid when Lord Farquarquarsson had fallen face down in his soup - a few noxious fumes were not going to defeat her.
Picking her way carefully past Otto and his feather boa constrictor, she sat firmly and deliberately next to John. He seemed a trustworthy sort.
The boa constrictor was looking suspiciously at Hopthrig. She wondered why. Could his change of behaviour since the crash mean that he was possessed?
'So,' she said, 'Crimson has gone. Others, such as Lesley, have not spoken for a while.' She looked nervously around the bus. ''When everyone is so quiet, it is difficult to know who to trust.'
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Yes, it is quiet on the bus. Yes Hophtrig you can have a hug - I am sorry I forgot that Joostein Kase had also suggested Crimson and Codine before deciding to nominate the Grafinn. And the Grafinn had nominated Joostein Kase.
Choey wonders who the Grafinn will nominate this time. She gets out a box of chocolate covered licorice to help her... ruminations.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Indeed, Lady Celandine.
On the one hand, I have already said what I have to say, and am slightly hesitant to re-hash it.
On the other, not having a discussion of some sort will severely hamper us.
So a discussion it is.
I am suspicious of Lesley, Reppik Tew, Otto, and Codine. I am unsure about Ios, Cho Bacca, and Daisy. I am reasonably sure Zapaterietxe, Ja'ayem, Joostein, Eliabulon, Hophtrig, and Lady Celandine are all innocent. I am certain that both Crimson and I are innocent, and that doesn't help Crimson.
I'm going to go through that list backwards.
Of course I think I'm innocent -- that's a given. I submit as evidence my effort to find and remove the Possessed. It is true that I supported the no-lynch on the first day, but that was because I wanted us to have more information before throwing someone off. I now feel that we have enough evidence to support lynching Reppik (and probably Lesley). The only conclusive evidence I can offer would be posthumously, and that's not exactly at the top of my priority list.
That Crimson was innocent we now have no doubt. Her death is unfortunate and mourned. Losing the detective on the first night is a major setback, and even though we have two in this game it is still far less than optimal. If there is more to learn here, I am not sure what it would be.
Lady Celandine is still mysterious to me. She has been paying attention, and is generally helpful without being dominating (which is more than I can say for myself). In all, nothing about her is suspicious, which is mainly why I'm still not certain. Nothing to worry about at the moment, though.
Hophtrig I think is innocent. The Possessed would be foolish to offer to off themselves -- especially offering several times. The whole point of the game is to stay alive, after all. I realize that's kind of a weak argument. My other argument is that Hophtrig isn't really showing any suspicious signs -- another weak argument, I'm afraid. Still, I'm happy to count him among the innocent, at least until I have more info.
Eliabulon has gone silent. Given the amount of talk in the opening hours, this is slightly disconcerting. Still, I think she is probably innocent because of the way she's been acting and the way she's been talking. I'm not sure what to make of the apparent vendetta against Joostein, especially given that I had mentally cleared Joostein before clearing Eliabulon. At the moment, I'm chalking it up to a "lost in translation". I think that either she's lying spectacularly (in which case she will slip up) or else is very innocent. I'm giving her the benefit of the doubt.
Joostein makes more sense as an innocent than a Possessed. I've pretty well boiled his arguments against Eliabulon down to misunderstanding. I don't really have much to add at the moment.
Ja'ayem has been helpful, involved, and smart. Innocent.
That Zapaterietxe is innocent I have little doubt. Zapa has done more to reveal the Possessed than anyone else. He was right about Crimson. I realize the Possessed all know who is or isn't innocent, but they cannot afford to clear innocents, because it severely hampers their work. They would have to rely on the doctor to fail to protect her, whereas if they don't clear her, they can try to manipulate a lynching. This is somewhat torturous logic, I know, but it's solid enough for me to count it among the pros. Zapa's work is what sets him apart, though.
I am suspicious of Daisy, Cho Bacca, and Ios because they have been very difficult for me to read. Cho Bacca has by far posted the most of the three, but I'm having a difficult time sifting anything useful from her blerbs about eating or going to the loo. She seems nice, but then you can't go on "nice" or "not nice", because even the worst criminals can sometimes be really nice blokes who are just so misunderstood. The other two are quiet beyond quiet and I can't read them. I don't think that's a good thing, either. We're a little more than six pages in, for crying out loud. Speak up, y'all, or get lynched.
Codine has protested his innocence. However, just saying you're innocent doesn't make you so, and it doesn't necessarily incline anyone else to believe you. I am suspicious of Codine because that's been about the only thing we've gotten. I'm actually more suspicious of Codine, but I can't put a finger on why. Maybe we should just chuck him off and see what Dafyd says about him.
Otto and the snake. I don't know anything about Otto. I know who has been suspicious of Otto, and that's it. I'm suspicious because I know nothing, and on this, the second day of our impromptu involuntary incarceration, that should not be so. He's another to investigate -- possibly violently.
Reppik Tew. You avoid anything resembling finding innocents and instead want to pursue random lynching. You sew seeds of discord and mistrust. Those two things are enough to get you lynched, because they are both text book examples of being Possessed. Only you messed up, got noticed, and are about to make a trip outside to inspect the rear tire.
Lesley. Miss "I'm innocent!" Lesley. Why the heck should anyone believe you? What have you got in the way of proof? What, aside from generally trying to gum up the works, have you done to help us out of this situation? Why haven't you offered any reasons for us to believe your plea of innocence? I'm not buying it. I think you're guilty, and I intend to see you off this bus.
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on
:
Reppik Tew flickers into life, his body looking even more human than before, though his face is a pale grey colour, and a black band appears on his upper arm. The movement of his lips now matched the voice which appeared in each person's thoughts
I mourn the loss of Crimson, as others have done also. This is a setback to our efforts in finding and removing the Possessed. Having accessed my memory banks I cannot see any indication from her contributions that she had a special ability, so I expect the Possessed are counting this as a stroke of luck, rather than a calculated action - though if others are able to offer proof that this is not the case, I am prepared to be educated.
the grey colour fades, but the black band remains
John, you nominate me immediately, based on previous discussions, rather than any logical reason based on what has happened overnight.
You accuse me of pursuing random lynchings, and avoiding finding innocents ?
- Yes, my contribution challenged the behaviour or process suggested by Zapaterietxe, but that is all it was: a challenge to ensure we were on the correct track, after all it is dangerous to blindly follow a path without discussion, no ?
Zapaterietxe did back up the suggestion, which I welcomed.
- I did also join in the process of suggesting people whom I found suspicious - Hophtrig, and non-corporeal beings. Though not saying it by name, this did include Zapaterietxe who then laid into my points as if I was destroying our chances of staying alive. Some might suggest that this was a reaction to my impudence of not only challenging the "suspect 3" process suggested by a being of such intellect, but also going so far as to cast suspicion on them, but I would credit Zapaterietxe with more class than that.
You accuse me of sowing seeds of discord and mistrust ?
- I have joined in with the discussion, where others have remained mysteriously silent. This includes classing Hophtrig as suspicious, as others have done.
I am struggling to find what my correct course of action should have been. First I am accused of "covering up" for Lesley or distracting attention away from her, after many people had classed her as suspicious (as you still do), and yet when I take that one step further into nominating her, I am accused of splitting the vote ?
quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
In addition, there is a mafia sympathiser. The sympathiser wins if the mafia win. The sympathiser knows who the ordinary mafia are; the ordinary mafia don't know who the sympathiser is. As no pms are allowed, the sympathiser cannot identify themselves to the rest of the mafia privately; any communication they attempt must be in public.
I am intrigued to the identity of this sympathiser. Someone who knows who the Possessed are, but cannot alert them to this other than agreeing to what they say, or standing up for them when accused.
John, I have noted that you had previously been of mellow disposition and willing to give others the benefit of the doubt, and yet you have been quick to comply and agree with everything Zapaterietxe has said and done, as if there was some way that you had a common interest other than the quest for survival which we all share.
At the moment, this is but a suspicious occurrence to me, and as the suspicion may be influenced by the fact that I am the one who is under attack, I shall submit that for others who are not directly involved to consider and discuss, to see if they agree. After all, no-one else has yet marked me as being as worthy of ejection from the vehicle as you and Zapaterietxe have, nor has anyone else tried to influence us against the two of you.
I await the opinions of others as we discuss our next actions.
and with that, the lips stopped, and shrank away to nothing. And his ears got bigger.
[ 10. March 2014, 20:20: Message edited by: Wet Kipper ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Great, thought Ios, as her screen reflected back the early sunlight, which refracted onto a giant pool of crimson blood. A definite hacking of algorithms there had been! And now she was under possible suspicion for being quiet.
It would be a mistake to lynch me, as I'm innocent, but then again, perhaps better to lynch me than a more perspicacious fellow innocent (whomever you might deem that to me) who might be more helpful at sorting out who's possessed.
Ios decided to review the transcripts of the previous conversations, which the bus seemed to be able to keep despite the loss of power (perhaps the bus is using the tiny solar panels mounted beside the left rear emergency escape window, which was practical since not much conversation took place at night?). Did Crimson say something to give herself away as the Police Inspector, or was it a lucky strike by the Possessed, or was Crimson simply such a fearsome passenger that the baddies were bound to strike her early?
The Grafinn suggested that the Possessed's way to win is to sow confusion and division. I think the innocents are capable of sowing a lot of confusion and division all on our own through panic and competing suspicions. I would think a thoughtful Possessed would lie low and avoid obvious shit-stirring and alliance-making. That takes a certain amount of confidence though, including being willing to sacrifice one or more of the Possessed in the service of keeping suspicion from falling on the others.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
(whomever you might deem that to me)
...deem that to *be.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Codine nodded.
I have been watching more than I have been talking because I wanted to see more before I tried to influence anyone. As to who I distrust? I always distrust people who try to repeatedly influence everyone because that is abusable. It's not enough to throw anyone off for, obviously but for that reason I particularly distrust Eliabulon and John. They are both organizing us, so if they are innocent, they are some of our strengths, but if they are not, they are insidiously dangerous. Zapaterietxe is an influencer too, but he's reading as more innocent to me right now though I'm not sure yet why.
Otherwise? Hophtrig seems to be on the side of the angels to me though I agree with John that he could be tricking us. Ios seems to be honestly trying to figure out this mystery, so I tentatively trust her. Not very sure.
On the fence about Joostein. He's sending mixed signals.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
Slipping from the seat he'd been merged with during the night, Zapaterietxe moved through the bus's skeleton and into the electronics. It was a simple matter of merging with the speaker system to allow himself to be heard throughout the bus…yes, even in the little back room he was so very glad he didn't have to enter.
"That was a good strike during the night by the Possessed. I don't know if I'd call it a lucky one, though; to believe it was simply a random shot hitting home would be to miss any possible lessons we might learn from analyzing what happened.
Yes, eliminating the Disciple of the Red Cat seems to be a popular strategy for the criminal element in some of the analogous situations I've read about. It's been done before, even during the first night. However, for whatever it's worth, I had my suspicions that Crimson had either an investigative role or was trying to expose whoever did—notice its preoccupation with allowing investigators to work, asking for protection during the night, and generally pursuing a strategy focused less on deduction than on preventing accidental lynchings and allowing those with extraordinary abilities to work. As even it admitted, this was unusual—Feline Disciples generally prefer to hunt their prey, after all—but would fit the strategy of someone who could sense what we could not. Of course, I also wondered if it wasn't a ruse to distract any on-board medical personnel from protecting another, but, naturally enough, the Possessed weren't likely to have such doubts; anyone who was trying to expose detectives or doctors would have come from within their number, ergo Crimson was actually a threat to them, not a help. Thus, she's been snuffed.
So here's the question: who else here has enough familiarity with Cultists of the Red Cat and perspicuity enough to catch the hints she was dropping? Who has spent time with simulations of social deduction scenarios, read over John's transcripts, and tends to investigate via careful reading, character traits, and hints in the dialogue as much (or more than) brute logic, deduction, and a process of elimination—since we can pretty much tell that someone like this has been Possessed?
…okay, who's an absolutely brilliant, perceptive, and experienced investigator who isn't me? Let's start with that as a working hypothesis. Hang on for this next bit, folks, it's gonna be cool."
The overhead reading lights all turned on above everybody's seats.
"First, I'd like to eliminate everybody for whom there is no analogue in John's transcripts."
The lights above John, Otto, Lucy, and Lesley all turned off.
"Next, I'd like to eliminate Grafinn Eliabulon, who seems likely to want to use strict logic and elimination, rather than character traits…and, like most Pavian nobles, might have a dim interpretation of the spirit of the rules. The fact that nothing out of the ordinary has happened (kidnappings, suspiciously missed assassination attempts, etc.), other than three of us being possessed and the engine falling out of our extremely reliable bus, seems to make me inclined to thinking he's innocent"
The light over the Grafinn turned off. She immediately reached up and switched it back on.
"Venn I vant ze light turned off, venn I shall turn it off myself!"
She turned off the light.
"I think I've pretty well shot myself in the foot here if I'm guilty. If I'm working for the Possessed, I rather think I'm doing such a bad job of it as to be allowed to be kept alive out of sympathy. Um, hangonjustasecond."
Z. condensed himself in the main aisle under a lamp, which he promptly turned off.
"So the person we're looking for, the one who might have deduced Crimson's role and marked it for elimination, could probably be found among those of you who are left—Joostein, Hophtrig, Ja'ayem, Codine, Reppik Tew, Daisy, Choey, and Ios. Which, granted, is about half of us—and not to say that there aren't members of the Possessed among those whom I've eliminated from suspicion in this role, just that they're not the ones calling the shots. I still think a fair body of evidence points towards Reppik Tew—and, what's more, I think he's experienced and astute enough to catch a subtle role declaration. I'm not sure where he's accused me of anything in the past (well, other than coming after him once he tripped my "something about you just ain't right" sense), but I do note that it's interesting that he mentions being suspicious of the other non-corporeal entity…who's now been decompiled. I'd also suspect Ios of being the sort of being who might lay low, watch for subtle hints, and then act on them, but I'd like to see more of what they do before assuming they're using their powers for nefarious ends.
[ 11. March 2014, 04:09: Message edited by: Ariston ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Crimson subtly hinted that she might be a detective, and outright asked for protection. For whatever reason, that was not forthcoming. I'm sure the reason will arise later.
It gives us a lot to go on, actually.
The Possessed have made a mistake.
There were three or four obvious targets for the Possessed to murder, and she was one of them. These targets (Crimson, Zapa, me, and probably Eliabulon) are all organized, all recognize each others' innocence, and are all interested in flushing out the malevolent parties. No one had accused Crimson, it is true. But such an obvious hit leaves no doubt about who the culprits are.
Now, had they chosen to take out one of the quiet ones, we would have been left with no leads. Nothing with which to work. Nothing upon which to base any suspicions or indeed any discussion. If, say, Daisy had been the one who was whacked, all we could say would be "Well, there went the silent one." But obvious hits are too obvious, too bold, too daring. Too much risk for such small reward.
So now I shall stick out my tongue, shove my thumbs in my ears, and waggle my fingers at the Possessed as I do a little happy dance. Your mother was a hamster, and your father smelt of elderberries!
Oh, sure. Kill off the obvious good guys because they'll be hard to lynch. It makes sense. Once an innocent has cleared another innocent, getting that one lynched is next to impossible. So the Possessed are left with killing them in their night actions. But the first night isn't the night to do that. It's the obvious play, and because of that it's too obvious. I see right through it.
I'm pretty confident with my accusation of Reppik, especially after his response. Almost-but-not-quite counter-accusing me is really cute. It is his MO, after all. This "it's not me, it's you!" gambit doesn't really work.
I can understand why people who take leadership are suspected in this game; I was at first suspicious of Eliabulon for just that reason. But that isn't, in and of itself, a reason of suspicion. I'm trying to contribute, and I'm innocent, so there goes that theory.
What's interesting to me is that we have such divergent styles and personalities on this bus. There are the "talk it out, get everything in the open" types. There are the "talk only enough to not get lynched for being silent" types who mainly just read without offering comment, and then there are the "say nothing to anyone" types who try to hide in the silence. I've tried to work out how we could win if we emulate the latter two, and I can't do it. I'm sorry, maybe someone can explain that to me. If we are all silent, the Possessed pick us off one by one until we lose on the ninth or tenth night. I realize not everyone is as analytical as I am (and even I am a lightweight compared to many), but I can't deny that the more we discuss, analyze, and check from every angle, the more likely the innocents are to win. The Possessed know this, and thus want to shut down discussion. They then want to say, "Oh, but I participated! See?" when called on it. (Remind you of anyone? *cough*Reppik*cough*) Even if you think you have nothing to say, nothing to add, you actually do. The Possessed know this also, and thus want you silent and also don't want to participate much themselves, lest they let something slip like Reppik and Lesley have done.
Oh, and one last thing. I know I'm going along with Zapaterietxe. I want the innocents to win, and the opposite of going along with him leads to death and losing. If that raises alarm bells for you, then so be it. I'm innocent and am working my butt off to get us all out of here, sans any malevolent beings who wish us harm. Please help me out. Please! We all need to help each other in order to come out victorious.
Posted by Surfing Madness (# 11087) on
:
Daisy knew people were talking but she was having great difficulty making out the words, maybe she should spin in circles and point at someone, and then accuse them?
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto says to Daisy that this has been the thought of the FBC and therefore what he's been doing. Us innocents must stick together. And may Otto sit with you? The FBC will sleep under the seat.
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
Crimson subtly hinted that she might be a detective, and outright asked for protection. For whatever reason, that was not forthcoming. I'm sure the reason will arise later.
...
There were three or four obvious targets for the Possessed to murder, and she was one of them. These targets (Crimson, Zapa, me, and probably Eliabulon) are all organized, all recognize each others' innocence, and are all interested in flushing out the malevolent parties. No one had accused Crimson, it is true. But such an obvious hit leaves no doubt about who the culprits are.
I'm confused, how does that follow, who are the culprits?
If she's obviously the detective (I missed it, last time I played she made similar claims) then that only proves the mafia contain at least one person that spotted her.
Which we know at least 2 people who claim to have (and as an innocent would be more likely to be open about that anyway, isn't any reason to suspect).
If merely murdered as a general 'obvious innocent' I'm not sure how that argues anything. I can see why murdering a strong character in a given camp would be a mistake for a mafia group that is entirely not in that camp as it asserts their innocence (though of course there could be a double bluff) but at the moment there aren't really any camps. But it seems a bit, you can argue any way you want (at least this turn).
Unless there was something in her 3 guesses that stands out (but even then, was she killed for being right or for being wrong)
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
Eliabulon has gone silent. Given the amount of talk in the opening hours, this is slightly disconcerting.
A Landsgraf alvays has many calls on her time. I have been dealing vith ozer urgent business.
But I have thought and have some time to speak.
Ze murder of Crimson is a serious blow. I vas hoping zat two investigators vould make zis an easy victory. Now ve vill have to vork for it. Und, unfortunately, Crimson vas not only a valuable investigator but also vun of our best thinkers. Und I think zat vas vell known. Ze killers seem to have known it.
Who to suspect?
Zere vas a point yesterday ven I vas thinking seriously of nominating John (because of ze suspicion of him zat I said zen), but his posts zis morning make me think zat he is genuinely considering all ze suspects und revising his views vith new evidence. Und zat is vat ze clever innocents vill do. Ze guilty can try to fake it, but it is a great effort to consider things thoroughly ven in relity zere motive is not to analyse but to hide und mislead. So usually zey do not. So John might be very clever or he might be sincere. Or both, of course. Anyvay, I am not thinking zat it vould be a good idea to kill him now.
My reasons for suspecting Joostein are not changed. Yesterday he said:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
Joostein never säyings Gräfinn tälk too much, but too unfoocused änd tooo brooad. Æsy foor päviän coounter, just moove froom coover oof äll too prä... prä... präcticäl pooints, with list oof three toop nämes.
But vy should I do zat? Because Zapaterietxe asked for three suspects I am not allowed to discuss more zan three? Did somebody appoint Zapaterietxe as ze new Wriksgraf, und did nobody tell me of zis? I do not know any ozer person in ze universe zat I am bound to obey!
Und zat is really ze only coherent point Joostein made against me. Zat I discuss everyvun ven I vas asked to give my three suspects. Und vy vould anyvun vant less discussion? Only if zey are guilty. So my reason for vanting to kill Joostein is still good.
Zere is vun ozer zat I suspect und zat is Ios. Ze problem vith suspecting Ios is zat she is very smart und subtle, ze only vun I know who is as frighteningly devious as ze late Crimson. “Vot?” you say. “Ios is devious? She does not seem zat vay!” Und zat is vy. She is ze best I know at misdirection und duplicity of any in ze galaxy. Und I mean zat as a compliment. If she is guilty, she vill guide a discussion vith little hints zat no vun sees until ve are all dead, und zen ve look back and see vot she did und think “Vow!”. If she is guilty, she vill not give zis avay easily. But if she is not guilty, ve need her, because she is a devious thinker.
Vy suspect her? She said zis:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Ios thinks Halftrack made sense when he (she? it?) said this about how to correlate the Detective and Anti- Detectives abilities. But she's (Ios, not Halftrack) is rather muddled and not quite sure, and as an outward and visible sign of that inward and invisible confusion, she is muddling up her apostrophes.
But I think zat Hophtrig's idea (vich ve cannot now do, as ze last investigator knows zat zey are ze detective) vas so obviously und crazily bad zat I cannot see vy Ios vould even vant to consider it. It vas insane to think ve should vaste two investigations on somevun ve vould zen kill. Ze two investigators ver our strongest asset. Vy vaste zeir time?
Except zat to ze guilty, zey ver not an asset but a threat – und a serious vun. Und ze idea zat ve might misuse zem in ze vay Hoptrig said vould have seemed so tempting to ze killers zat zey must have hoped ve vould do it. So vould zat be enough to make Ios (if guilty) drop ze mask just a little to steer us zat vaay? It might.
I am not sure, but vith Ios, zat is more of a clue zan I vould expect to get. So I am thinking zat she might be guilty.
Anyvay zose are my thoughts. I am not nominating yet, and vould like to know vat time ze have to do zis.
(Und I have more to say soon about ze suspicions zat ozers have voiced.)
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
Ozer people's suspicions:
I thought zat yesterday, Reppic vas not at all convincing ven Zapaterietxe accused him. His thinking did not seem very clear or helpful. Vat he has said today is better. I think ze accusation is vorth listening to, because Zapaterietxe is vorth listening to, and I vould not dismiss his instinct zat Reppic is guilty. So zat is vorth thinking about.
Und it is right zat Otto has not said very much to be helpful. Zat is possible for a guilty person, but it is also ze behaviour of somevun who has nothing to say. I vould certainly kill Otto if zere vas no better suspect, but I think zere are better positive reasons to think zat ozers are guilty. Und by 'ozers' I mean Joostein und Reppik. (Und if Ios is in fact a killer, zen I vill be kicking myself for not saying ' Joostein und Reppik und Ios').
I have not changed my mind about Hophtrig. At ze moment I trust him. Not completely – ze only person I trust completely is me, but I do not think zat he is guilty. It is true zat I think his plan vas insane, but it vas so insane zat I cannot think zat a guilty person vould propose it and think zat it vould to anything except make zem suspicious. I think zat Hoptrig thought: “Zere is a problem as ze inspectors do not know vich is vich. Ve can solve ze problem if zey investigate somevun who dies. Hey! Ve could ask zem to investigate somevun und zen see vat happens ven ve kill zat person! Vat a plan! Ze problem is solved!” Und I did not think zat he vent on to ask vat ve vant ze investigators to be doing in ze first place, vich is to check as many different und living people as possible, so zat ve can solve ze more important und pressing problem of not being killed. So I think zat Hophtrig is innocent. I am more suspicious of anyvun who said anything at all zat vas positive about zis vacky idea of Hophtrig. But, it is fair zat vun of zose people vas Crimson, und Crimson vas definitely clever und definitely innocent, so it is possible zat ze plan did not seem so unhinged to ozers as it did to me.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
Two ozer interesting comments:
quote:
Originally posted by Wet Kipper:
I am intrigued to the identity of this sympathiser. Someone who knows who the Possessed are, but cannot alert them to this other than agreeing to what they say, or standing up for them when accused.
I am also intrigued by zis. It seems to me zat ze sympathiser's perspective is not ze same as ze killers. He or she does not vin in ze same vay: zey cannot influence ze choice of victims to kill, und zey do not vin by concealing zeir own identity, but zat of ozers.
I think zat zere are things zat a sympathiser who considers zis carefully vill be likely to do und say, but I vill not share zese for ze obvious reason zat ze sympasiser is listening.
But ze most important point to say is zat ve do not vin by killing ze sympathiser. Ve vin by killing ze killers. Ze sympathiser cannot vin if zey are ze only guilty vun left, vereas ze killers do vin if ze sympathiser dies but zey do not. So to chase ze sympathiser at ze cost of not chasing ze guilty so much is not right.
But killing ze sympathiser is obviously better zan killing an innocent, und ve might also see from who zey behaved who it vas zat zey ver trying to shield. But to kill ze killers is better.
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
The Grafinn suggested that the Possessed's way to win is to sow confusion and division. I think the innocents are capable of sowing a lot of confusion and division all on our own through panic and competing suspicions.
Did I? Vere?
I do not think zis. I think zat ve, ze passengers, vin by vun of two vays: investigation or deduction. Und I think zat deduction requires date from vich to deduce, und zat data comes from arguments und suspicion. So vile I vould not vish 'confusion' on us, I do vish for a certain amount of division, as long as everyvun is keeping ze rules. Ozervise ve have nothing from vich ve could say who is guilty.
Ze Possessed vin if zey beat both of ze vays ve vin. If zey kill ze detective und ze inspector, ve cannot vin by investigation. If zey are successful in ze hiding of zemselves, zen ve do not vin by deduction. Confusion und division are vun option. Possibly it is zere best option, but is is not ze only thing zat zey could do.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ios was very flattered zat ze Grafinn thought her (Ios) to be devious and subtle. She was sorry to have to disillusion ze Grafinn by trying to convince her (ze Grafinn) zat, yes, she (Ios) really had thought Hat Trick's idea seemed good. "If I only had a brain", Ios hummed, remembering an ancient movie she had once seen as part of a course on The Very Ancient People Who Came Before Us.
Nothing at all seems obvious to me. I'm always trying to figure out if there's any behavior of the innocents which cannot be counterfeited by the baddies. And conversely, I suppose, whether there's any expected behavior of the baddies which might be exhibited by the innocents blundering about trying to figure things out.
Mostly my strategy, in the face of complete indecision and a bad track record at spotting baddies by any exercise of reason, is to trust ze Grafinn or her relatives whom I have encountered in previous simulations similar to our current situation of being trapped on a bus with malevolent beings and No Good Way Out.
I will try reading the transcripts in light of "what does this mean if the speaker is innocent" and "what does this mean if the speaker is a baddie" (and ditto for other roles, especially the Sympathizer), and see if I see any patterns.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
Hello, Passengers,
in response to questions our schedule is:
8 Pm UK Wednesday: nominations close. Voting opens.
8 Pm UK Friday: voting closes.
8 Am UK Monday: night actions resolved and announced. Nominations open.
So nominations close in just under eleven hours.
So far, nominations are:
Otto von Biggleswarpski (No Prophet) by Hophtrig
Reppik Tew (Wet Kipper) by John the Less
Hophtrig (Alban) by Otto
Please let me know if I've missed anything.
[ 12. March 2014, 08:25: Message edited by: Dafyd ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Thank you, Ios. Any insight you can provide, no matter how unimportant it may feel to you, can be quite helpful.
The nominations are interesting. Of course, we have the obvious baddie in Reppik. He is joined by a borderline, unsure-of-his-real-alliances potential baddie in Otto. And because apparently we can't nominate anyone without getting counter-nominated (or at least a wimpy plea for someone else to do it), Hophtrig.
I don't think anyone will vote for Hophtrig except the Possessed, and thus I'll be very interested in seeing who manages to do so. He's pretty well cleared at the moment.
Otto and Reppik are both interesting cases, and I actually find myself without much of an opinion. Reppik is clearly the guilty one (along with Lesley, whom I note has been both silent and unmentioned so far). Otto is harder to read, but I haven't cleared him yet so he's still on the list of potential Possessed.
This round of voting could be very telling.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Joostein has spent a while trying to figure out how this badge thingy works. He's also been stuck with the cabin entertainment system role-playing game "Real Lyfe", which has brought him plenty of interesting things to take care of in the upcoming couple of days. Still, well aware of his own Nordic history and what can be learned from that, Joostein has decided to write a chronicle of the ongoings on the bus ever since the outbreak started. This will be presented divided by every fiftieth known "event", and hold short references on what has been said or done and by whom. Hopefully this might show patterns easier.
So far, only the first part was done, but more would be added when "Real Lyfe" wasn't so demanding. Right now all Joostein needed was sleep. He put the chronicle in a public place so everyone could see it even after he was gone. He had tried to avoid spinning the events, but objectively presenting them for what they were, in order to enable as much and as accurate interpretation as possible. In his mind, those spinning were the most dangerous.
I don't know if anyone's guilty - I have a feeling Leslie is just being Leslie way more than I think the Grafinn is just being the Grafinn.
The sympathizer has to talk. It's interesting that Reppik's only point has been to introduce the rule re: the sympathizer, could mean he's studied them (too) closely.
Chronicle will follow after a brief yawn.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto would note that he has not travelled by bus before and is guided only by his intuition and companion, the FBC. He is innocent. For certain.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Starting point: P3, post 105
Snoop: detective.
Baddie: Mafia.
Goodie: Loyal.
Symp: Sympathizer.
Listings: i) name, reason, et c.
Nominations: -Name
Votes: +Name
Flaws/misunderstandings: *by statement.
Ja'ayem: Point out two snoops soon likely to know what they are. Sympathizer may get killed by mafia, but important in end-game. Unreadable ones make snoops unreliable. Q: if deceased's identity revealed.
Dafyd: A: Identity revealed.
Choey: x2 chatter. Mentions Joostein.
Grafinn: Introduction.
Grafinn: Q: unreadables unreadable in death?
Grafinn: List of participants.
Hophtrig: Chatter to Grafinn.
Grafinn:. "Rules": All talk. Not shut folks up. Stick to logics and consistency. Snoops stay alive and quiet. One investigatee must die, can be at mafia's hand. Doctor protect snoops when known and not die (i.e. protect self). All listen to wisdom/Grafinn.
Grafinn: stats, win possible in two nights, loss possible in four. Reasserting importance of rules.
Leslie: People mustn't act suspiciously/illogically.
Hophtrig: Chatter. Mentions Zapa.
Grafinn: Chatter with Hophtrig.
Hophtrig: Chatter with Grafinn.
Dafyd: Unreadables' unreadibility confirmed in death. Wants contact with baddies.
Ja'ayem: Stats. 2 nights probably 4 goodies dead, 6 goodies known, 5 unknown. Not explained how/why.
Daisy: Chatter.
John: Chatter. Urging decision: kill annoying one, kill random for evidence, or TESS/wait. Lean towards TESS.
Otto: Chatter.
Zapa: Hoptrig unidentifiable, due to blabber.
Leslie: Wants more interactions to read people. Suspicious of Grafinn. Lean towards TESS.
Reppik: Chatter.
Ja'ayem: Unsure lynch/no lynch, possibly depending on number of participants. Q: *4 baddies?
Zapa: Responds to Leslie's suspicion of Grafinn. Chatter, "just Pavian behaviour".
Zapa: A to Ja'ayem, 3 baddies.
Leslie: Chatter, with Zapa.
Ja'ayem: Thanks for answer. One more mistake possible. Q: *4 baddies mentioned before?
John: 3 baddies + 1 sympathizer. Rules of sympathizer. Symp no prob, focus on 3 baddies. Chatter.
Zapa: Chatter with Leslie.
Hophtrig: Plan to designate second day kill for snoops to investigate. Offers himself. Chatter with Choey.
Ja'ayem: Hophtrig's offer of self-sacrifice noble. Steep price, 2 investigations+1 kill for knowledge of snoops' correctness.
Choey: Chatter with Hophtrig.
Lucy: Chatter.
Dafyd: Nominations in bold.
John: Suggests TESS to wait and see.
Leslie: Chatter with Zapa.
Hophtrig: Restates plan. Chatter with Choey.
Zapa: In principle good to kill often, but this time even chance to get baddie or snoops/doc. Kill may give info, but may also kill snoops/doc. Suggest discussion of top threes.
Zapa: i) Choey, relation with Hophtrig. ii) John, totally unknown. Mentions Crimson as potential candidate, but "think she's occupied". iii) Hophtrig, annoying.
Ja'ayem: Good idea. 3 groups: a. Silents. i) Ios, silent. Mentions Crimson, Codine. b. Spoken but said nothing. ii) Lucy. Not others mentioned. c. Suggesters. Zapa, but following his idea. Hophtrig, not useful suggestion, could want trust. Grafinn suggest sensible rules. Like Crimson known for wisdom and deception. *"Reppik corrected baddie numbers". iii) Grafinn, no reason.
Reppik: Correcting Ja'ayem, not the one who corrected baddie numbers. Thinking.
Lucy: i) Leslie, says too little. ii) Grafinn, aristocratic whim. iii) Hophtrig, conspicuous to avoid suspicion.
Ja'ayem: Mea culpa.
Leslie: i) Grafinn, steering/spinning. ii) Hophtrig, suspiciously friendly. iii) Choey, suspiciously friendly.
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on
:
Thank you, Graffin, for your (as always)considered and erudite discussion of my mention of the sympathiser
I agree, we should look out for him/her not in terms of lynching them, but to try and work out who they are protecting or had been trying to ingratiate themselves with, in an attempt to avoid being chosen as a candidate for assasination.
You are correct - go for the killers, and the watch as the sympathiser stays alive yet manages to "lose"
And thank you for seeing this as a genuine point of discussion, rather than an excuse for accusing me of further suspicious behaviour.
--
John, those are some serious lines in the sand you have drawn, in terms of the vote due to happen (assuming that no further nominations occur) and will definitely alter how people will vote - compared to how they may have voted if you had kept your analysis to after the vote.
Going by what you have said, no one will vote for Hophtrig for fear of being branded Possessed (whether they are or not, and despite how strongly they may feel about him), other than Otto, who cannot be accused for sticking to his original nomination.
In nominating me as "obvious baddie" you are implying that any innocent person not voting for me is blind or stupid, or both, which no-one will wish to admit to.
If I am innocent the Possessed can happily vote for me to help the groundswell for your opinion without looking suspicious.
If I am Possessed, and the axe is already swinging for me then they will join in, happy to sacrifice one of their own, if it means making the rest of them harder to find.
So Otto and Hophtrig will vote for each other, and I will vote for Otto (as I would not vote for myself, nor vote for Hophtrig as that would confirm me as Possessed in your eyes) and then we watch closely to see what other people think.
My only hope for survival is that someone else is nominated who seems more suspicious than I do to a higher number of people (and I refuse to nominate you in a tit-for-tat split of the vote, as I believe you are innocent) or that others think Otto is more suspicious than I am, and join Hophtrig and I in voting for him enough to prevent a majority decision.
Either that or enough people think you are wrong about Hophtrig and vote for him en masse
then again, anyone who is not completely swayed by at least one of the arguments against the nominated people - perhaps still worried about lynching a fellow innocent, or possible retribution for voting for a Possessed One - might vote for "no lynching", and mess everything up ?
so yes, we should all pay close attention to how the voting goes.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
So far, nominations are:
Otto von Biggleswarpski (No Prophet) by Hophtrig
Reppik Tew (Wet Kipper) by John the Less
Hophtrig (Alban) by Otto
And as always that permanently shifty character No lynching.
No last minute nominations have come in. Voting is now open. Polls close at 8pm on Friday (twenty two hours from now).
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Dear Grafinn, as so many times before, those words of yours regarding sympathizers, when quoting Reppik, are inaccurate at best.
You're right that the sympathizer is not the same as the killers and in what different aspects they have. Thanks for this, it will be noted in the chronicles as a useful contribution. However, that's about it.
You know what you think baddies will do, but will not share it so that we could all see it? Most likely, by now the sympathizer has already made himself known to the killers, or is infinitely stupid. So sock it to me or suck it. (Woow Zäpä, this Thoor thingy cäme with rælly coloourful länguäge!) And yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if this came out in the form of a made-to-fit post-hoc description of me.
Regarding winning by killing the sympathizer, we can win a day by doing so. We can also get information from his or her behaviour more easily than from the killers, as the sympathizer's words are all overt. But it isn't just better than killing a loyal one, it's much better - we can lose quicker by having them left alive. They cannot win on their own, but with a single killer they can win. Therefore it may be useful to look for patterns in speaking with "hidden clues", in order to find both killers and sympathizer.
As for your previous accusation of me, I think a specific discussion, such as listing 3 people, can at times give more information, not less. That pattern is also a nice way to get everyone to talk. Now that that pattern is broken, how could a silent Lestrade put forth his or her findings from last night? Furthermore, overly verbose players can actually turn more silent people off from joining in the discussion. This goes for myself as well, but have a look at the signal/noise ratio. Too much noise kills discussion. And you've been doing your regular "Logics! Kill!" routine, but produced illogical muck-filled posts all along. That's why I remain highly suspicious of you, and possibly you of me for pointing that out.
As for the vote, could someone give me a quick recap of the actual interactions that have caused suspicions against the nominated? I think for Otto and Hophtrig the silence speaks against them, but what's the specific triggers leading up to Reppik being nominated? I would like to see this before I decide upon my vote. Could someone do this (in brief)?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I wonder whether John The Less and Reppik Tew are simply having a pissing contest of equally logic-obsessed innocents. So I might be inclined to give Reppik Tew a pass this round, as I did last round. Otto's nomination of Hopfrog seems like a boring tit-for-tat kind of retaliation. And at least for this round, I am inclined to trust Hopfrog. So (and this is not a vote yet) I'm inclined to vote for Otto to head out the hatch to retrieve our engine.
Some uncounterfeitable things I've thought of: after someone is murdered or lynched and we know if they're a goodie or a baddie, then we can reread their speeches in the light of that certain knowledge.
Also, the fact of whom the Possessed choose to kill each night is a known sure fact (at least, if the Possessed are successful: if the Doctor thwarts the plan then I don't think we find out who was targeted).
Also, someone cannot hide the fact that they are participating or not in the conversation, and what kind of stance they take on the surface (although it may be misleading), but at least we can read that that's the outward stance they've chosen. Unfortunately, the fact that several beings on this bus are addicted to that nefarious video game Real Lyfe means that we cannot always read silences or prolonged absences as indicative of very much (although I'm probably going to try to read the unreadable tea leaves and try to figure it out anyway).
Open to correction, argumentation, contradiction, etc. on any of the above.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Joostein, I think John The Less nominated Reppik Tew because he (John) thought he (Reppik) was pretending to offer extended logical arguments, but in fact what he (Reppik) offered was as shifty and unsubstantial as this sand we're mired in. John's suspicions of Reppik seem to be on the same grounds as your suspicions of the Grafinn. And may I ask, if that's the case, why you didn't nominate the Grafinn today to be exfenestrated to retrieve our engine?
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
You know what you think baddies will do, but will not share it so that we could all see it?
No. I do not know vat zey villdo. I have ideas about vat I vould expect ze sympathiser to do. But if I say more zan zat, ze sympathiser, who is reading zis, vill clearly not do vat I expect, so I vill be less likely to spot zem.
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
Most likely, by now the sympathizer has already made himself known to the killers, or is infinitely stupid.
It is possible but not likely. For zis reason:
quote:
As no pms are allowed, the sympathiser cannot identify themselves to the rest of the mafia privately; any communication they attempt must be in public.
Suppose you are ze sympathiser. If you try to hint at zat, you have three friends who might notice your scheme, und not murder you by mistake, but also (at ze start) eleven enemies who might also notice und kill you for it. So you vould be careful. Zat much, I think, is obvious.
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
Regarding winning by killing the sympathizer, we can win a day by doing so.
Ve reduce ze intruders' votes by vun, zat is true, but zey zen act at night und (very likely) do ze same to us. Ve gain an investigation by ze detective, zey get a chance to kill ze detective. But ve still need exactly ze same number of successful evictions (three of zem) as ve did before, if ve are to survive.
I agree zat ve gain information (und information is life) und of course ve do not lose a day zat ve vould have done if ve had killed an innocent. So, yes, killing ze sympathiser is good, but killing ze killers is better.
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
As for your previous accusation of me, I think a specific discussion, such as listing 3 people, can at times give more information, not less.
Yes, you think so. I do not. I do not think zat limiting vat people should discuss is ever a good idea. I do not think zat basing an accusation on ze fact zat people discuss more zan you vish zem to is a good idea.
So ve disagree. Ze important thing zat you have not said is vy somevun who disagrees vith you on zis is guilty, und not innocent.
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
Furthermore, overly verbose players can actually turn more silent people off from joining in the discussion.
Zat is vy I made it a rule zat zese people must talk! Vat is ze proplem some people have vith following ze rules? Zey are good rules.
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
And you've been doing your regular "Logics! Kill!" routine, but produced illogical muck-filled posts all along.
Yes, you say zat I have been illogical. But I have not. Und you have been very unclear as to vat exactly I have said zat is not logical.
Anyvay, I vas dealing vith an urgent matter from ze Landsgrafy ven ze deadline to nominate you passed (I had not decided vether I vould or not), und you did not nominate me, so I vill think today mostly about Reppic, Hophtrig und Otto. As you are doing. Vich is good.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
As for the vote, could someone give me a quick recap of the actual interactions that have caused suspicions against the nominated? I think for Otto and Hophtrig the silence speaks against them, but what's the specific triggers leading up to Reppik being nominated? I would like to see this before I decide upon my vote. Could someone do this (in brief)?
You are not seriously asking me to be brief? Zat vill not happen.
It vas zis comment zat made Zapaterietxe suspect Reppic:
quote:
Originally posted by Wet Kipper:
Excuse me. Whilst the suggestion that we list 3 fellow travellers who arouse our suspisions the most is admirable - in terms of starting discussions and providing an insight into our thoughts - it fails my logic computations for a number of reasons:
1. The resultant tally of suspicions is more likely to show a mean level of suspicions across a higher number of candidates than if we each suggested one person
2. It further clouds later discussion and calculations when trying to track each person's ideas - this is not a concern for *my* computational abilities, but is unfair to those of lower processing power.
3. It permits the malevolent to include one of their own number within their choice of good/bad/ugly as a bluff or smokescreen, though this carries risk of said bluff being inadvertently taken up by others and turned into a nomination.
4. It lowers the requirement to stand by one's choices, were we to limit our initial suspicions to a single traveller.
5. It further increases the time spent before action is taken with actual nominations.
I agree there is merit in the opinions already provided, and not wishing to go against the course that many have so far taken, however, to abide by what I have just stated, I shall limit my discussions.
I am most suspicious of that which I cannot compute, usually due to insufficient information.
What currently_ _ _ _ confuses me most is the seemingly boundless energy of the being Hophtrig, and any non-corporeal entities.
Zapaterietxe took zat (I think zis is a fair summary, he vill correct me if zis vas not his thinking) as an attempt to discourage ze sharing of information, und ze only people who vould vant to do zat are ze murderers.
Zere is certainly some force in zat. I think of ze five points Reppic made zat 1 und 3 are true of any sort of discussion und so right, but not very important. Point 2 does not vorry me. If zere are being who cannot process much data, zen ve vill not be relying on zeir thinking anyvay. Point 4 is a good vun. Ve learn more from vat people say und do ven life is at risk. It is important to bear in mind zat voicing a suspicion is not ze same as making a nomination or casting a vote. Point 5 is bad. Zis is not a race. Vat does it matter if ve take time to think und speak, if ve are getting closer to vinning? It vas zat, und ze vay Reppic vas not convincing in answering ze accusation, zat made me think zat I should take zis seriously.
Zere vas also a suspected collusion between Reppic und Lesley. Zat, of course, vould depend on Lesley being guilty, und I see no reason to think zat, so I vill let Zapaterietxe argue zis if he vishes. I do not think zat he is saying zat his case depends on zis point. I think ze stronger reason to suspect Reppic is how Reppic acted yesterday.
But I also think zat Reppic's think today has been clearer und more helpful zan before. Zat does not mean he is not guilty – he might just be hiding it better. Und I do not think I am likely to vote for either Otto or Hophtrig more zan Reppic. But vile Otto particularly is under threat, I think ve might as vell see if zat makes him think und speak more zan he has. So I vant to hear Otto's defence before I vote.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
Zere vas also a suspected collusion between Reppic und Lesley. Zat, of course, vould depend on Lesley being guilty, und I see no reason to think zat, so I vill let Zapaterietxe argue zis if he vishes. I do not think zat he is saying zat his case depends on zis point. I think ze stronger reason to suspect Reppic is how Reppic acted yesterday.
But I also think zat Reppic's think today has been clearer und more helpful zan before. Zat does not mean he is not guilty – he might just be hiding it better. Und I do not think I am likely to vote for either Otto or Hophtrig more zan Reppic. But vile Otto particularly is under threat, I think ve might as vell see if zat makes him think und speak more zan he has. So I vant to hear Otto's defence before I vote.
1. I've tried to construct independent cases against both Leslie and Reppik; even if Leslie is simply extraordinarily stupid, to a degree that can only be described as committing suicide by angry mob, rather than Possessed, I still think that my suspicions of Reppik hold. I will grant that he's being a bit more subtle today than yesterday; perhaps time to think, plan, and scheme with his cohort could account for this. The accusations against him have stood for two days now, with nothing to unsettle him, other than the death of Crimson—which wouldn't be a disappointment or shock to the Possessed, now would it?—so a bit of greater thought in his defense is to be expected.
2. Speaking of Leslie, can anyone say "massive behavior change since The Event?" So quiet, despite being right here the whole time. Perhaps someone might want to explain themselves—or at least help us out of this predicament we're in?
3. I'm also noticing that Ios, whom some of us are suspicious of on the grounds that, if she were guilty, she'd make a very deadly, skilled, and subtle enemy, could be shifting us away from focusing on a newly enlogiced Reppik (note the focus on his discussions with John, and not, well, me—if you're looking for a logic-obsessed innocent he's gotten into a pissing match with, look no further than…well, wherever it is I am at the moment), her partner in crime, and onto Otto. If I may direct your attention to the fact that a large part of why some of us suspect Otto is that we know nothing about him—indeed, he maintained a rather characteristic silence—but, as Ios herself said, "we cannot always read silences or prolonged absences as indicative of very much." So if she's been Possessed, she's doing a pretty good job of redirecting and coaching.
Of course, if she's innocent, she's doing a pretty good job of trying to make sense of whatever the @#$% is going on, and this could all be my own "someone's trying to kill me"-induced paranoia. Honestly? I ain't got a clue. Ios, if you're guilty, could you please nominate yourself next round?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
John The Less was the latest to be pissing with Reppik so I misremembered and thought that was with whom the earlier bouts with Reppik had been. I forgot who had actually been involved. So, quite an innocent oversight, Zapatereitxe, although I agree it's difficult to overlook a 10 foot tall angel.
I disagree with the Grafinn about Hot Grog's suggestion to preplan the day 2 candidate for engine retrieval, in order for the Detective and the Inspector to know definitively which they are. The Grafinn thinks that plan was clearly crazy. I think it was an attempt to find a way to determine some certain and useful information, and while there may be better ways to proceed, it wasn't an obviously crazy idea.
One of the difficulties of us all laying out our logic is that if we disagree with each others' logic, as many of us seem to do, that becomes grounds for suspecting each other, I'm not saying this very well. I don't mean that we shouldn't lay out our logic, but it is noticeable that we don't agree about what is logical. This is part of why I think the innocents all by ourselves can create confusion and division among ourselves; the Possessed barely have to lift a finger during the daytime. What if the large groupings of beings on this bus is between those of us who are trying to figure things out and explain ourselves, and those of us who are being very quiet?
A few thoughts on innocence or guilt:
I think Ja'ayemm is innocent because of the way he was the first to start trying to figure out what had happened after the bus broke down, and the way he spoke. He just seemed convincingly agenda-free to me.
I think if Choey is guilty, we'll never know from her behavior because from my experience with giant Roos, she takes bus trips for the pure fun of meeting different beings, and this pure and innocent motive will cause her to seem equally happy-go-lucky whether innocent or guilty.
I am suspicious of Codine because I think he is exceptionally smart and deceptive and quite capable of staying in the shadows being forgotten about.
I found the quick nomination of Otto (well of anyone, but it happened to be Otto) so immediately after we awoke this morning and discovered the death of Crimson, to be odd. But nominating so quickly in this case makes more sense to me as the act of an innocent person than of a guilty person.
I find the accusations against Reppik Tew and Lovely Lesley sound convincing, but I need to reexamine the evidence to see if I agree that they have really been behaving as the accusers describe.
Then again, I could be completely wrong about all of this and merely spinning cobwebs of self-delusion.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Joostein, I think John The Less nominated Reppik Tew because he (John) thought he (Reppik) was pretending to offer extended logical arguments, but in fact what he (Reppik) offered was as shifty and unsubstantial as this sand we're mired in. John's suspicions of Reppik seem to be on the same grounds as your suspicions of the Grafinn. And may I ask, if that's the case, why you didn't nominate the Grafinn today to be exfenestrated to retrieve our engine?
Thanks for the explanation, both to you and Grafinn.
I didn't nominate Grafinn partly because I've been very short of time outside Real Lyfe, partly because I don't think I could bring her down, and nominating would look like or create a split. I am also somewhat doubting myself, and am uncertain as to how many more chances I want to give the Grafinn.
Most of all, the Grafinn may be as likeable as a drunk Stavanger stud, but she still possesses a great deal of credibility and rhetorical skills, which I don't. To me, her behaviour smells fishy all through, it's just not sharp or helpful enough and with an eerie aftertaste, but I could not describe why well enough (without her winning over the crowd with some witty retort) to secure an engine expedition. It could be a misunderstanding or different personalities (her wanting to nail everything down with logics, me thinking that anything could be justified in some way or another, having met enough lawyers to convince me so). I maintain close watch however.
We were extremely unlucky. I don't buy what John is saying about us being lucky. Apart from a detective and brilliant eyes, we're pressured to act. I'm not sure it's necessary yet, but it may be wise. I'm still undecided and listening to arguments.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
If we send Reppik Tew after the engine, then we will know for sure if he's good or bad, and we gain the benefit of being able to reread his voluminous contributions in the light of that certain knowledge.
Ios had been kindled by a desire to read something that might explain her fellow passengers. She had been hoping to find something called The Countess or The Angel or The Rhetorical Habits Of The Tsoh Remrof. But all she had found was a text from her course in The Very Ancient People Who Came Before Us. She had to admit that this Machiavelli guy had some very interesting ideas.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Codine smiled for a moment at Ios. "A good servant does not stand in a spotlight, madam.
Re voting, count me as another who would like to hear from Otto. Right now, I have no particular reason to vote for Hophtrig, but find Otto and Repik Tew both suspicious enough that I can see voting for them. We've heard some from Reppik Tew, though if he has more to say, perhaps it would be helpful too. But does Otto have anything to say about why he isn't guilty? I think it would be good if all accused speak up for themselves. Obviously it might help us vote. Also, that way we can weigh the words of whoever is invited to leave the ship in light of what we learn about them afterwards. "
[Crosspost with Ios]
[ 13. March 2014, 13:02: Message edited by: Gwai ]
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto is a poor ignorant innocent. He has travelled little by bus, and brought along a companion, the FBC to help him be brave. He has only the conversation among others to guide his perceptions, and that's what he's used. He thought, in his most diligent manner, that if the passengers want to throw him off, that he is willing to go, because if an innocent is gone, then the field of bad ones may be easier. He probably has has listened to the FBC a little too much, the FBC is beautiful but deadly. And yes, he does chatter....
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Codine sighed. He had nothing against Otto precisely, but he was uncomfortable that Otto persisted in avoiding giving views. Was Otto hiding something or was he just otherwise occupied?
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
Twenty six hours to go until voting closes. Please put votes in bold. Eviction requires at least half of all eligible voters. Please put votes in bold. Eviction requires at least half of all eligible voters.
Dimthing Tours apologise for the repetition. We will fix the glitch as soon as we find out what it is. We will fix the glitch as soon as we find out what it is.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig likes his friend Ios.
Ios seems to understand Hophtrig well, has Ios been watching Hophtrig on the holovision as a youngling?
Hophtrig would love to know something, instead of all this guessing Hophtrig and his friends have to do. Hophtrig likes the simple logic of Childrens entertainment, when all problems are neatly packaged up and solved. Hophtrig's plan wasn't insane, Hophtrig was trying something simple which wouldn't have worked anyway because the detective went off the bus.
Hophtrig put in his nomination quickly because Hophtrig seems to have different energy patterns to some of you, and Hophtrig was listening when the news about Crimson came through, and wanted to do something before he did an insightful report on this game of real life everyone talks about for all the boys, girls and others out there watching.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey woke up suddenly and shifted her enormous feet off the headrest in front of her. Her thinking cap had fallen to one side, and dangled precariously off one of her ears. It's voting time? Already?
She knew there were three names to choose from and that time was running out. She was sad no one seemed to want to vote for her friend Hophtrig. She didn't want him to feel left out, and hoped that remembering him would make him feel wanted.
She settled back in her seat and nodded off to sleep again.
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
Ja'ayem wanted to get to sleep, after that he would be addicted to the 'real life' simulator.
Hophtrig seemed to radiate innocence. He(J) disagreed about the validity of the plan,
But an evil Hophtrig believing the plan was good had plenty of chance to 'change his mind'.
An evil Hophtrig who believes the plan was bad has been remarkably consistent under adversity, a cunning double bluff if it is.
A good Hophtrig who believes the plan is bad seems unlikely.
A good Hophtrig who believes the plan is good seems the most likely option. Whether he was right/wrong/depends is now moot (except if he asks us to trust him on reason alone, but he's not asked us too)
Reppik had been nominated yesterday, on the basis of no firm information, but a behavior that deviated from Zappa&Eliabum's rules. Much of what they say makes sense, I think, but am I right. If so Reppik's actions are suspicious, if not then.
The late voting adds suspicious, but that could be real life.
The nominator this time was already suspicious although voted against it in practice. But was immediately off the mark now.
It could be that he held off to avoid looking suspicious and now thinks he can get the kill. If so then maybe he's shielding someone nominated last time (or trying a double bluff), but if not it seems amateurishly bloodthirsty.
Or it could be that somethings changed (maybe just the late vote and then silence) or maybe this is someone we should follow.
Meanwhile Otto, I'm not sure if he's actually said anything meaningful other that his(O) nomination which is a simple counter-nomination. This I find rather odd behaviour.
(having found the nomination that slightly changes my feelings about Hop, as all that about being quick off the mark applies to him too).
I was going to go for Reppik on balance, now this Otto/Hop dynamic looks far more interesting than I thought and things are much closer. And I'd rather be outsmarted by Hophtrig if I'm wrong and he's bad than by silence. It's probably slightly more likely that he's innocent and without knowledge so I think if we have magic (or posthumerous)confirmation of Otto's innocence then Reppik is still second choice (and not just of the nominations, though there's always a few other maybes).
Otto
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
I feel zat I have talked myself into a corner. I vas certain zat of zese three I vould vote for Reppic. Zen, at ze start of voted, I had ze thought zat I vould vait, und not take any of ze pressure off Otto because I vanted him to tell us vat he vas thinking. I vas expecting him to say something, some idea, perhaps, vy he thinks Hophtrig is guilty, some reason vy ve can trust him, really any sort of data at all. Und zat vas not really because I vas thinking of voting for him, but because it seemed like a good opportunity to ask him to speak.
Zen all he says is 'Do not vote for me because I am innocent'. Everyvun says zat! Zat does not help us at all.
Does zat mean Otto is a killer? I do not think zat it proves it. Ze point is, zat if he vill not say anything, ve have no clues vether he is or not. Und if he vill not talk even now, zen vat help can ve hope for from him?
Otto - I made ze rules for good reasons. Ze first, everyvun must talk, is ze necessary vun for us to solve zis by thinking. Ze second, zat guessing wrong is allowed, is to encourage people who do not know (und, except ze detective, none of us do know) to not be so afraid of making an honest mistake. Ve vant to hear vat you are thinking. Zat is how ve vill vin.
So please, stop making it so tempting not to vote for Reppic. Because now I thinking zat vile he is still ze vun I vant to evict, if ze vote did not go zat vay, you vould be a good second choice.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Oh Choey, thanks! That was sweet. Hophtrig loves Hophtrig's Choey friend, big hugs for Choey!
Hophtrig is going to ask Otto and his FBC to help us, though.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
Ze rest of you,
Even vith ze vorst defence from Otto, ze case against Reppic is ze same as it vas, and zat vas good enough for me to vant to vote for him. Zerefore, I am intending to vote for Reppic. But I do not vish to vaste my vote, und if ze rest of you vote so zat it comes down to Otto or no vun, I vould go for Otto rather zan hang ze vote.
I vould guess, from ze slow voting, zat zere are ozers zat are thinking in ze similar vays. If so, zen say vat you are thinking. Ve might all be vaiting for no good reason, if in fact zere is a majority zat mostly agrees.
(Und Hophtrig has voted vile I vas thinking of zat. Three votes not to lynch Reppic. Und he has yet to vote, so zat is four. But zere are plenty of votes left)
[ 13. March 2014, 21:27: Message edited by: Eliab ]
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
And here's a vote for Reppik, surprise surprise. The evidence against Otto seems to boil down to him being clueless and quiet; if he were smart and Possessed, he'd have caught wind of our suspicions and started acting like he cared about them, no? Surely there's somebody on their side who can coach a new passenger on the ways of deception, right? I think he's being too quiet to be properly Possessed—I'm not ruling it out as a possibility, mind you, just saying that it's much less likely than Reppik, whom I think reeks.
Posted by Starbug (# 15917) on
:
Lady Celandine sighed. With so many votes for Otto, what shoud, she do? Despite all the arguments, she wan't convinced of his guilt - there just didn't seem to be enough evidence. Talking to a feather boa constrictor was strange, but hardly a reason for the death penalty. As for Hophtrig, he seemed to have calmed down but was that evidence of possession? He may simply be afraid.
Looking around, she made her decision. The De Copperhoops had never been swayed by public opinion. 'One has decided to vote for Reppik Tew , she said firmly.
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on
:
I suggested earlier that I would vote for Otto, as John had poisoned any vote for Hophtrig. And despite my inital misgivings about Hophtrig, Otto now seems more suspicious to me.
However, seeing as Choey has had the courage to stand against John's opinion, others may too, so I will wait and side with whichever "non-reppik" vote helps me most.
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on
:
Actually, that is poor logic on my part, the clouded thinking of a being in a perilous situation.
I'd forgotten that it's not about who gets the most votes, but if someone gets to more than 50% of the votes.
My choice will not help me in any way, except if it is involved in the lynching of someone possessed who can do damage to any one of us, or my vote is not involved in the lynching of an innocent person whose abilities can help us all.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Wet Kipper:
I'd forgotten that it's not about who gets the most votes, but if someone gets to more than 50% of the votes.
No, zat is not qvite right.
quote:
Fifty per cent of the votes cast is required to lynch somebody. In the unlikely event of a tie, the last person to be killed by the mafia gets the casting vote.
So zere are fourteen passengers. If seven of us agree on vun person, zen zat person is gone. Zat is, exactly fifty per cent of ze vote. Not "more zan".
If two people each had seven votes today (vich in fact cannot happen today, as zere are now three people vith at least vun vote each. Is hypothetical.) zen ve vould ask Crimson* vich of zem she likes ze least, und zey vould go.
But ze part zat you are right about is zat it is ze number of votes for you zat matters to decide if you go. Zere vill be either seven votes for you, or zere vill not. Who ze ozer people voted for who did not vote for you does not make any difference to vat happens to you.
(*or her archive copy, or vatever)
[ 13. March 2014, 23:06: Message edited by: Eliab ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Recently Management said something slightly different:
quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
Eviction requires at least half of all eligible voters.
So is that at least half of EVERYBODY who is alive? Or as it seemed to be at the beginning, at least half of everybody who CASTS A VOTE?
Management, could you please clarify?
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
:
Sorry, but I can only vote No Lynching.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I observe that there seem to be at least three highly engaged analysts who find Reppik Tew to be suspicious -- the Graffin Eliabulon, John The Less, and Zapatereitxe. It seems unlikely that those three are all the Possessed and they are running such an open strategy of demonising an innocent in concert. It's possible that one of them is Possessed and has managed to infect the other two with suspicions. But what seems most likely to me is that all three are Innocents, and either Reppik Tew in fact stinks to high heaven and is Guilty (whether Possessed or a Sympathizer), or else Reppik Tew is innocent but has the unfortunate effect of universally putting people's backs up.
Eliabulon has also put up the backs of some of the highly engaged analysts, but not I think to such a uniform extent. (If I'm recalling correctly, which I may not be.) So I'm more inclined to chalk the Eliabulon back-putting-up effect to simple conflict between innocents and their methods.
But I will review the cases.
If Reppik is guilty, then I would observe that Lovely Lesley has indeed undergone a massive personality change. She said it was because her previous personality was causing her to be suspected. But the innocent actually have little to fear by being suspected. Lay down your life for your friends, and all that. An innocent it seems to me is best served by continuing to talk. It is the guilty who would be terrified by being suspected and would react by hiding so as to try to deflect suspicion. Of course, that's my own logic. Lovely Lesley may be innocent but subscribe to a completely different logic.
Choey's vote to exfenestrate Hophtrig surprised me. That's not who I thought Choey might have chosen. So either I don't actually know giant Roos and their predilections very well (quite possible), or else Choey and Otto perhaps form a pair of quietly guilty parties.
I have become quite fond of Hophtrig and don't think we should send him after the engine. For one thing, he would need friends to go with him and I don't think we have enough innocents to spare for a group engine exodus. Perhaps the Possessed would like to befriend Hophtrig and go in search of the engine en masse? That would be most helpful. What about it, Possessed?
[cross-posted! Here is Lovely Lesley herself. That is a very very very strange vote, Lovely Lesley. Please explain yourself.]
[ 14. March 2014, 01:02: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
The sewage lines on this bus are atrocious. I've spent most of the day removing the toilet, running a snake* down, removing the cleanout, running a snake down, removing the whole pipe system and replacing it with new, running a snake down, and finally cutting the exit pipe to run a snake down. It was a crappy day. Hence my lack of visibility. And I still have to reinstall the toilet and replace the sewage exit line.
So I'll be brief. I vote for Reppik. I'll leave you to work out why, for the time being.
___
*Of the plumber's variety, not the feather boa constrictor variety.
[The board messed up your code. Happily, I'm So Good I can fix it. —Z.]
[ 14. March 2014, 01:09: Message edited by: Ariston ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Votes so far:
Choey - Hophtrig
Ja'ayem - Otto
Hophtrig - Otto
Zapaterietxe - Reppik
Lady Celandine - Reppik
Lovely Lesley - No Lynching
John The Less - Reppik
With Lovely Lesley's vote, there are so many reasons to suspect so many people.
Nothing ventured, nothing gained. I vote to send Reppik Tew after the engine.
Reasons: Lots of people find him really suspicious. And he will provide us with the largest amount of prior transcript to analyze for certain knowledge after we have lynched him, so even if he is innocent we will gain a lot of knowledge by his sacrifice. (I do think there's good reasons to think he's guilty; I'm not going to lynch someone I think is innocent just to get my hands on their transcript for analysis in a state of certain knowledge.)
[ 14. March 2014, 01:49: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
The FBC has instructed Otto to vote for Reppik, which is because the FBC says, that Reppik is obviously guilty. Hophtrig is also guilty even though says he's friendly. The FBC would like to bite him, but is waiting for Otto to get strangled instead, so he can have dinner. Otto is innocent, yes he is.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Nine votes cast. If I get them right, this is the statistics:
Hophtrig i
Otto ii
Reppik iiii/
TESS i
Five votes to go. I can affect the race by voting for Otto, Reppik or TESS. If I do not vote for Otto, he goes clear. I do not know the allegiance of those following me, and the risk is that my vote seals the deal and lets them get off lightly by just tagging along.
In the race between Otto and Reppik, I find evidence as well as defence to be about as shoddy in both cases.
So it seems to me to be a choice between maximizing your knowledge of me, by sealing the deal, or maximizing my own knowledge about others by not doing so. I think making this stand, and voting at this point (I could wait for a few hours and leave the call up to others) should speak to my willingness to present information about myself, rather than to hide. Real Lyfe has prevented me from planning precisely when to vote, but as this situation has arisen I shall act upon it and not shy away from it, in order to be visible and open.
However, I do think that I and the group benefit from unclarity on who should swing for a while longer, even if the information may be veiled until we know both Reppik's and Otto's allegiances. Still, I think a vote for Otto will maximize information at this point. With that said, I wouldn't mind seeing either one go. If Reppik lives, I could nominate him myself tomorrow to make that clear.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
I should add, for general information and full disclosure, that most likely Reppik will vote for Otto and thus the standings, following my vote and including Reppik's, should be:
Hophtrig i
Otto iiii
Reppik iiii/
TESS i
It may be that I've started a trend/spin, however, we won't know until both Reppik and Otto are dead. As I've said before, though, for me it's about information more than finding a guilty victim at this point.
Also, the fact that the last night-victim breaks ties adds an interesting point: we have one more day than at least I had previously expected to find the Possessed. The sympathizer's extra vote in support of the Possessed is less valuable, as it won't cause a victory until they have a majority. This means that we only need to keep 4 people cleared. Which is admittedly what the Grafinn said from the beginning, I believe. (This says nothing about her innocence, however, only that she's well read on the rules.) I may have overgrasped in my attempt to maximize information. Sorry about that, although I still believe we will collect plenty of information from this, not least from silent late voters.
Posted by Starbug (# 15917) on
:
At the moment, there are four votes each for Otto and Reppik - what happens if there is still a tie when night falls? Do they both go, does neither go or do we vote again?
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Five votes for Reppik. Zapa, Lucy, John, Ios and Otto. Ties at 50/50 are broken by Crimson, but unlikely due to votes for TESS and Hophtrig.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
So is that at least half of EVERYBODY who is alive? Or as it seemed to be at the beginning, at least half of everybody who CASTS A VOTE?
Management, could you please clarify?
I was intending fifty per cent of everyone who is alive. Abstention counts as No Lynching. If I have reason to believe that someone isn't voting because they can't get to the keyboard I may make an exception.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Thank you, Management. Thank you, Management. Drat, these intercoms seem to be broken in both directions. Drat, these intercoms seem to be broken in both directions.
Votes so far:
Choey - Hophtrig
Ja'ayem - Otto
Hophtrig - Otto
Zapatereitxe - Reppik
Lady Celandine - Reppik
Lovely Lesley - No Lynching
John The Less - Reppik
Ios - Reppik
Otto - Reppik
Joostein - Otto
Still to vote:
Reppik Tew
Grafinn Eliabulon
Codine
Daisy
To send Otto after the engine, all four beings yet to vote must vote for Otto. To send Reppik Tew after the engine, just two more votes are needed. Hophtrig is safe.
[ 14. March 2014, 07:14: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig is happy. Thank you friends!
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
To send Otto after the engine, all four beings yet to vote must vote for Otto. To send Reppik Tew after the engine, just two more votes are needed. Hophtrig is safe.
It pains me to do zis after so feeble a defence, but zis is ze vote zat clears Otto.
Reppik
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on
:
Actually, that is poor logic on my part, the clouded thinking of a being in a perilous situation.
I'd forgotten that it's not about who gets the most votes, but if someone gets to more than 50% of the votes.
My choice will not help me in any way, except if it is involved in the lynching of someone possessed who can do damage to any one of us, or my vote is not involved in the lynching of an innocent person whose abilities can help us all.
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on
:
Sorry, these communication issues are playing havoc.
So i am the only one still in jeopardy. So I vote for no lynching. Especially not me
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on
:
And i know I'm too late to influence most of you - but while i still have a chance of survival i urge you to let me live, and see if what i am able to do during the night helps us in our cause.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Reppik, it's funny to me that only just now are you trying to build a case for innocence. You've been suspected almost from the very beginning, you've been nominated twice, you've been voted for both times... and you've suddenly decided it might be good to hint that you might be innocent.
Either you're an innocent whose sense of timing is way off, or you're Possessed and know you've been caught. I guess we'll find out one way or another, won't we?
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Wet Kipper:
and see if what i am able to do during the night helps us in our cause.
I have added ze emphasis.
If zat is a claim to be in some vay special, zen you should say so expressly, as you are vun vote avay from ze airlock.
(Und zis sort of thing is vy I ask people to say in advance how zey are thinking. Zen ve vould not get zese surprises.)
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
The protective thing to do would have been to vote for Otto early, in hopes of swinging the numbers to make it more likely a lynching of him is still possible when later voters are making their decisions.
If you have evidence that Otto is innocent, then I see how that would be a distasteful thing to do.
I am going to feel really awful if it turns out I have been part of lynching either the doctor or inspector Lestrade.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
(That was cross-posted, and in response to Reppik.)
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
If you are claiming a role, I am not asking you to say vich it is. Zat is up to you. It is more convincing if you do, because zen zere vill be somevun who knows if you are lying and can say. Und if no vun does, zen ve vould have to be careful.
But also, zere is a risk zat if you are lying ze real person vill not say because zey do not vant to take ze risk of murder, or do say, und are murdered. Either vould be bad.
But you have left it very late to be doing zis.
[ 14. March 2014, 11:52: Message edited by: Eliab ]
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
I am going to feel really awful if it turns out I have been part of lynching either the doctor or inspector Lestrade.
Crimson vas Lestrade. You mean ze detective.
(Und zey vunder vy ve Pavians have a reputation for pedantry! It is because ozers do not pay attention to ze details).
Posted by Surfing Madness (# 11087) on
:
Just dropping by to vote for Reppik Tew. (Also in real life won't be back on here till Tuesday.)
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Cripes, Eliabulon, you're right. Oh, the subtle differences between Police Inspectors and Police Detectives! Let's hope the real Detective read Crimson's death announcement correctly and figured out they're a Truth Reader and not a Lie Reader. Otherwise the Real Detective has spent this entire round thinking backwards about who is innocent and guilty.
It might have been sensible this round for the Real Detective to have announced his/her/its identity and asked explicitly for protection from the Doctor. Also to reveal what she/he/it found out last night about someone's innocence or guilt. That would have given us some certain information to work with today.
It is not so sensible for the Doctor to announce its/hers/his identity, because no-one can protect the Doctor. (Can the Doctor protect her/it/him-self? That could lead to an interesting game of nighttime bluff and counterbluff between an announced Doctor and the Possessed guessing about whether the Doctor will protect him/it/her-self, and whether it would be risking a wasted night to try to kill the Doctor.)
I consider announcements to be Police (whether Detective or Inspectors) or Doctors to be, if not entirely uncounterfeitable, to be dangerous claims for the baddies to make Falsely -- because it means that you immediately identify yourself as Possessed to the real Police or Doctor, and if the real Police or Doctor counterclaims, then the baddie is within one round of being known for a baddie by everyone.
And they're foolish claims for the innocent to make falsely, because they just confuse things massively.
[ 14. March 2014, 12:07: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Votes so far:
Choey - Hophtrig
Ja'ayem - Otto
Hophtrig - Otto
Zapatereitxe - Reppik
Lady Celandine - Reppik
Lovely Lesley - No Lynching
John The Less - Reppik
Ios - Reppik
Otto - Reppik
Joostein - Otto
Grafinn Eliabulon - Reppik
Reppik Tew - No Lynching
Daisy - Reppik
Still to vote:
Codine
Reppik, are there any final words you would like to share with us before Management activates the intercom to confirm that we may escort you to the airlock? Before Management activates the intercom to confirm that we may escort you to the airlock? Drat, even mentions of the intercom are malfunctioning. Drat, even mentions of the intercom are malfunctioning.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Should have voted before I left work, but I was running late. Yes, even good servants have to run to be at their master's door in time. Well, I will vote even though it is too late too matter. Still, it's the best choice I see. I hope deeply that he isn't the doctor or the final detective, but honestly I'm not persuaded by that final plea. Not clear enough, and too late. So if you're innocent or a special, I apologize, but I have to vote for Reppik.
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on
:
(RL)
In answer to John, I am a person who hasn't played as much Mafia as some think, therefore I do have bad timing, and have also been restricted in when I can post.
My reasoning behind such a late action is thus:
I have claimed to have a special role.
I am only trying to sway 2 people away from voting for me
If I am lying, then there are 2 people who can prove that.
- they can either both keep quiet, protecting their own identity, and lives for another day and allow an innocoent person to get away with a desperate, cheap shot to stay alive
- they can speak up, blowing their own cover, and condemn a Guilty person who even tried pretending to have a special ability.
By not claiming one role or the other, I have prevented anyone from having to draw a target on their own back, though I have admittedly either set myself up for a "hit" overnight, or a lynching tomorrow
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on
:
ah
have just seen the other votes.
oh well.
Don't all rush to chuck me out at once, I have a death scene in mind and it might take me a while to type it all out
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Please make sure to leave all valuables in an easily accessible bag, with a note telling Joostein to whom it should be sent once we get off this planet. It will sooo happen. (PLOONDERINGS!)
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Reppik, if you are the Detective, be sure to tell us who you investigated last night and what you found out, before heading out into the xtonic blue yonder. This will be very helpful for us.
If you are the Doctor, let us know who you protected last night and why. I can't think of any immediate use we can make of that information, but all information is useful.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
"See, this is why Codine thinks Ios has got to be innocent. She thinks of things like this. There I am hoping he's not our last detective, and she's busy giving practical suggestions in case he is."
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Surfing Madness:
Just dropping by to vote for Reppik Tew.
Votes in bold please. Especially if as here they happen to be the deciding vote.
Hophtrig, one vote.
Otto, three votes.
Reppik, eight votes.
As you manhandle Reppik Tew to the airlock, he briefly breaks free. In one hand, you spot a small device with a label on it reading 'Antimatter Space-Time Annihilation Device.' One assumes that Reppik intends to put it somewhere safe since it could be dangerous in the wrong hands. You will never know for sure, since as Reppik is trying to pull out the pin, Lesley in an act of heroic self-sacrifice bodyslams Reppik out of the airlock.
They are both dead. They are both dead.
Reppik Tew was one of the possessed and a symbiote. (Unreadable mafia.)
Lesley was innocent.
(Kelly Alves apologises for being unable to continue playing.)
The lights go out. Will those with night actions please take them.
[ 14. March 2014, 14:00: Message edited by: Dafyd ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Wow. I totally did not expect that. So the mostly-unwise action of claiming to be the Doctor or Detective turns out to be quite plausible for the Possessed as a truly desperate last-minute attempt to eke out one more day for the Possessed. Even though unmasking and lynching will be almost certain the next day (unless the real Doctor or Detective believe it's better for them still to lay low), it could still buy the Possessed one more day's advantage over the Innocent.
Wow.
So now we have some transcripts that we can reread with certain knowledge of guilt and innocence. And we have killed one of the Possessed. Hurray for us.
Alas for having lost one of our own. I'll let ze Grafinn explain whether the loss of Lovely Lesley leaves us with no net gain against the Possessed today, or whether we have advanced numerically.
Let us bow our heads for two minutes of silence in memory of Lovely Lesley's sacrifice.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
While innocent beings are mourning Lovely Lesley, and malevolent beings are pretending to mourn Lovely Lesley, a disembodied computer voice rings out:
Unexpected item in bagging area...
Unexpected item in bagging area...
Unexpected item in bagging area...
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Dimthing Tours Management:
There are three ordinary mafia members. Once per night they will pm me with the name of somebody they wish to kill, and that person is out of the game (with one exception) unless protected by the Doctor.
(emphasis added by me)
Mr. Manager sir, what is that one exception? Does that mean there's an innocent whom the Mafia can't kill even if they try?
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on
:
Bang goes my elaborate death scene.
[ 14. March 2014, 15:10: Message edited by: Wet Kipper ]
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Wet Kipper:
Bang goes my elaborate death scene.
I think my version might be metaphorically true.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Mr. Manager sir, what is that one exception? Does that mean there's an innocent whom the Mafia can't kill even if they try?
I think I was referring to what happens if there was to be a tie in the voting. In that case, the person killed by the mafia would be able to take part in the game by using a casting vote. Doctor aside, nobody is immune to mafia.
[ 14. March 2014, 15:46: Message edited by: Dafyd ]
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto and the feather boa constrictor breath a sigh of relief. They note that Reppik tried to deflect just before his death by saving me. As an innocent, we like saving, but not from a bad one. Otto is using his and the FBC's intuition only to try to make sense of things. Is innocent. Plays nicely with everyone, and looks stylish too.
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
That's rather a lot to take in. However it seems there is now a way we are different.
All but 4 of us (Choey, Ja'ayem, Hophtrig, Joostein, -and Lesley*) voted for a mafia member. There's and obvious motivation for mafia members to be in this group, but on the other hand they also know whats going on (we also don't know that they were wrong, yet). We all know one of us must be innocent and I think it unlikely that I was the only sucker.
3 voted when it was too late to really lynch anyone else (Graffin, Daisy and Codine). The obvious mafia motivation is hedging their bets, but on the other hand if they were all mafia they could have saved him comfortably. So there are probably at least some innocents there, and it does seem rather risky as a strategy anyway.
2/3 (Zapp, Cel &John) voted when he was behind. A bad person could do that on the basis that he hoped the rest of us would counteract this (and even if it failed it provides cover for them). On the other hand it is thanks to them we are down one mafia. So it could indicate astuteness being used for good or even special powers.
3/2 voted when there was a bandwagon (John?, Ios, Otto) again could be detectivey or hoping for cover (especially if Otto was bad as well as there was now little choice but for one to go).
So we have 4 narratives.
We know at least one story is totally wrong and one of these groups is totally innocent (3 baddies).
I suspect it is more likely the mafia haven't put all their eggs in one basket, so at least 2 of the groups are also mixed.
But we can perhaps tie the details further as we consider the consequences of the motivations.
*thanks for playing. Sorry RL got in the way (I assume).
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
[cross-posted with Ja'ayem.]
Interesting, Otto.
I have a little theory that says Reppik's partners in crime are you and Choey. Reppik tried to avoid voting you off. You voted for Reppik because by then Hophtrig's candidacy was dead in the water and for protective coloration you had to vote for someone. In contrast, Choey, by voting first, had the field wide open and could vote against the innocent (I think) Hophtrig.
Of course it's quite possible that everyone is being completely irrational including you -- Lovely Lesley's vote this round for No Lynching comes to mind. To me, that only made sense as the vote of a Sympathizer facing a complete slate of Possessed. But as we now know, Lesley was perfectly innocent. So what the heck did she mean by her vote? Did she really still think that in the face of imperfect information, we innocents should continue to delay a vote? But that just leads to the innocents dying slowly by night only instead of quickly by day and by night (assuming we always get our votes wrong).
Speaking of Lovely Lesley, one might cheer on the lynching of Reppik Tew as a triumph of logic. But also by logic Lovely Lesley was seen as an obvious cohort of Reppik's, and now we know she wasn't. So I don't know what that says about logic. Should we keep on trying logic, and acknowledge that a 50% hit rate for our logical conclusions is doing excellently?
[ 14. March 2014, 17:36: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
By my calculations now that we've lost Lesley, we need more than a 50% accuracy rate to win unless the doctor can prevent a kill. We could have made it that way if we hadn't lost Lesley and had killed Possessed with our accurate votes instead of the sympathizer. I'm not sure I thought of all the variables though, so maybe it's better than that?
Re Lesley's vote, I'd guess she didn't have time to decide who to vote for, and didn't want to vote randomly.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
So Lesley was innocent. I am very surprised. When I nominated Reppik, I had to decide between them both. I chose Reppik because I thought we had a better case against him. Turns out I was right, but for the wrong reason.
I want the Possessed to be removed and I want the innocent to live. Since everyone else seems to be better at picking the guilty than I am, I am going to focus more on working out who is innocent. However, I am suspicious of a couple of you and will get to that in a moment.
Zapaterietxe I think is innocent. I haven't found any inconsistencies which worry me. I have decided that what Zapa has said would be very detrimental to the Possessed cause.
Grafinn Eliabulon I think is innocent. She likewise would be talking quite differently if Possessed. She's one to ride the river with.
Lady Celandine I think is innocent. She has been fairly helpful, has not made any inconsistent statements or votes, and gives me the impression she's thinking her way through.
Ja'ayem I think is innocent. He has been rational and forthright. He has been supportive, and his analysis has been very helpful.
Hophtrig I think is innocent. He hasn't given me anything to suspect him, and little bits and pieces here and there that seem to clear him.
Joostein I think is innocent. I'm having a harder time reading Joostein than I was previously. I'm not sure why. But I'm not quite ready to put the heat on him.
Ios is unclear, though I'm very, very tempted to clear her. I'm loving her new voice! Give me a bit more to work with, please, so I can figure you out.
Daisy is unclear. In and out, voting with the bandwagon, not talking much at all. Innocent? Guilty? Who knows. I'm willing to leave her for last, though.
Codine is unclear. He protests innocence, but I don't have anything to base any opinion on. He talks more than Daisy (though admittedly that's not hard), but I haven't been able to pick out anything to push him in either direction.
Cho Bacca is unclear, but I'm leaning toward suspecting her. One red flag is voting for Hophtrig. I'm just not convinced she's innocent, but I'm not convinced she's Possessed. Let's look into that, shall we?
Otto is unclear, but I'm leaning toward suspecting him. All he's said was that he's innocent. But everyone says that. That's cheaper than floor sweepings at Tuesday's buy-one-half-price-get-three-free sale. If you're innocent, buddy, you better be backing it up.
I'll take info on everyone on this bus, but I'm primarily interested in the bottom five, in that order.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
John The Less, "in that order" meaning from top to bottom and you most want to get information about me, and then Daisy etc.? or from bottom to top and you most want to get information about Otto, and then Choey etc.?
A little while ago Codine said this:
quote:
Originally posted by Codine:
"See, this is why Codine thinks Ios has got to be innocent. She thinks of things like this. There I am hoping he's not our last detective, and she's busy giving practical suggestions in case he is."
and that made me think Codine is innocent, because I wouldn't expect the baddies to be clearing me. Generalizing that, do we expect the baddies to be clearing anyone? Or do we expect them to be mostly just pottering about staying in character and voting when required to and occasionally uttering suspicions? (Of course that would describe Lovely Lesley to a T, so take this proposed baddie-detecting criterion with a large grain of salt. Here, let me give you the entire salt cellar with it.)
I said early on I had given up hope of solving these kinds of things by logic, but look, here I am, drawn into trying to reason my way through this.
Ja'ayem listed narratives above, analysing or wondering about reasons for votes. My vote was a little bit of a "create [or reinforce] a bandwagon" vote. At the time I voted there were 6 left to vote after me. If I voted for Otto, then to convict Otto we would need 4 of those 6 to vote for Otto. If I voted for Reppik, then to convict Reppik we would need only 3 of those 6 to vote for Reppik. It seemed a little more likely that we would get Reppik, with the fewer number of remaining required votes to convict. And perhaps I was also swayed by you having voted for Reppik just before I voted. And, as I said at the time, if we convicted Reppik we would get ample amounts of transcript-of-a-person-whose-role-is-known, which would be useful even if Reppik turned out to be innocent. In any case, I was suspicious of both Otto and Reppik, so I didn't mind shading my vote on strategic considerations rather than absolute greater conviction of guilt. There was perhaps a slight bandwagon already for Reppik when I voted, but not enough to have convinced me (I think) if I really thought Otto were the better candidate.
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on
:
As the travellers on the bus sleep, they share the same dream. The familiar outline of Reppik Tew can be seen, but within that. Glowing within a small pod at belly button level, is the shape of a tiny creature. They hear they same soft whispering chorus of a voice
This is the voice of the elders of Tsoh Remrof. We are, as you were told, pan-dimensional and cross-temporal beings. What you see is the true representstion of Reppik Tew within his adaptable shell, and you see us as we really are: small weak creatures in a larger facade, trying to compete with giants of both stature, intellect and pinnacles of evolution. Sadly, and perhaps hampered by the POSSESSION, Reppik Tew did not complete his mission.
He is not dead, as such. As the ionising radiation of the planet tore at his multiflerflousimetallixy shell, we retrieved his true form back to our dimension, and he will remain in stasis until a new shall can be formed. However he will not be able to return to the dimension you are in. We apologise for any hurt he may have caused whilst possessed.
and with that, the image flickered and disappeared
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto has been only throwing out bait, to see who seems suspicious. As an innocent, it's all he can do. Hophtrig and Grafinn took the bait in the past when the FBC encouraged Otto to offer it. Maybe Hophtrig is innocent, I cannot tell. Grafinn seems to be off the radar unless we are missing something. I am not convinced.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Sorry, Ios, that line escaped editing. So it should be in reverse order.
I'm about ready to clear you, once I kind of get a feel for how you think. What you've said about Codine makes sense, too.
So just to go on my lack of knowledge about the ones toward the bottom of the list, I wonder if Otto and Cho Bacca are possessed, and Daisy is the sympathizer? But then, if I had only my knowledge to go on, I wouldn't be able to decide.
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
Lesley in an act of heroic self-sacrifice bodyslams Reppik out of the airlock.
They are both dead. They are both dead.
(I was wondering if anybody picked up on my reference. Sorry to bail, guys-- have a good game.)
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Unexpected item in bagging area...
Unexpected item in bagging area...
Unexpected item in bagging area...
![[Snigger]](graemlins/snigger.gif)
[ 14. March 2014, 19:47: Message edited by: Kelly Alves ]
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
I'll let ze Grafinn explain whether the loss of Lovely Lesley leaves us with no net gain against the Possessed today, or whether we have advanced numerically.
Zis vas a triumph.
Ve are ahead. Two more to find und ve vin.
Ze loss of Lesley? Vell, is sad. Until today she vas on my list of very likely to be innocent - but I vill say truthfully zat after her 'no lynching' vote I vas starting to doubt zat. Also, Zapaterietxe has proved zat his instincts are good vith ze accusation of Reppic, und I think if Lesley had not been killed his suspicion of her vould have looked very strong. And I vould have been wrong. So perhaps her death is not vasted, if it saves us from making a mistake tomorrow.
She died vell. Rest in peace, friend.
Zere is only vun thing zat I regret - zat is zat Reppic's "Antimatter Space-Time Annihilation Device" vent out of ze airlock vith him. Do you know how rare zose things are? Zey are illegal everyvere! Zey annihiliate not only ze enemy but ze very time und space in vich ze enemy exists. Zere is nothing more devastating. Even ze Belligerons of Blutsheim have banned zem. In ze Salemite Utocracy, it is illegal even to think of owning vun. Zey are such vunderful veopons. If ze thought of having vun does not get a Pavian Grafinn very vet indeed, zen nothing vill.
But I digress.
Ve learned a lot today und I vill think carefully about all of zis.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
Ze analysis of today:
My first thought (call me mistrustful if you vish) vas: have ve just been played? Zapaterietxe seemed to spot Reppic as a killer very qvickly, und be very certain of it, und it turns out he vas right. So vas zat a villing sacrifice of vun intruder, to shield ze ozers?
Zere are two things zat make me think it vas not. First, zere are three killers, but only vun of zem is unreadable. So vy vould zey pick zat vun to lose? Zey can make as convincing a ploy vith any of ze three, so zey vould not pick ze vun vith a clear advantage over ze ozers.
Second zere is ze role-claim. I think zere are three reason vy somevun might claim to be a special person ven zey are not: To stay alive; To draw out ze real specialist; To get somevun else lynched. Und here it is clear zat Reppic tried only vun of zese. If he vanted to get ze doctor (for instance) to reveal zemselves, he vould have said “I am ze doctor”. If ze detective, “I am ze detective”. But he did not. He just said zat he had a skill, not vich vun. Zey vere not going to blow zeir cover for zat! Also he did not 'reveal' his role until after Otto vas safe. He could have spoken earlier, und zere vould have been a good chance zat if no vun had contradicted him, ve vould have killed Otto. But Reppic vaited until zat vas impossible. So ze point vas not to kill Reppic.
Vich means ze point vas to stay alive. Vich zen suggests Reppic vas not thinking zat he vas villingly sacrificing himself.
So for zose reasons, I think zat Zapaterietxe made a good call, und ve can very likely trust him.
My second thought vas vere are ze ozer possessed? How vould zey have voted? At ze start, zey vould have wanted not to lynch Reppic, but it is possible zat zey abandoned him at ze end. Ze vuns who voted to save him are: Choey, Ja'ayem, Hophtrig, Lesley und Joostein. Clearly not all of zese are guilty, but I think it very likely zat at least vun of zem is a killer. Und, I think it almost certain zat vun of zem is ze sympathiser. Ze sympathiser cannot communicate vith ze killers except ven ve might overhear, so did not know vat ze killers' plan vas. But they know zat, from their point of view, Reppic vas a friend und trying to save him vould be zeir priority. As you know, I see ze prospect of getting ze sympthiser as a secondary objective, but I think zat the likelihood of getting zem in zis group as vell as vun or more killers makes selecting targets from zis group look like better odds zan from anyvere else.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
My third thought Vas zat zere vas something odd about ze way Reppic acted. If his plan vas to claim a special skill, vy do it just after it vas impossible for us to lynch anyvun else? Vy not earlier, ven ve vere likely to kill Otto if ve vere persvaded zat Reppic vas innocent?
Ios's suggestion is may be Otto is guilty too. Zat fits ze facts. If Reppic und Otto ver both accused, und both guilty, it is possible zey said: “As soon as vun of us is safe, zey ozer claismto be special, und ve both valk avay...”. It vould even be a good plan. So it is posible zat is vat happened. On ze ozer hand, vould ve killers really let us nominate two of zem, vithout nomiating somevun ozer zan Hoptrig? Zat does not seem so likely. But I have trouble thinking of anozer vay for ze timing of Reppic's claim to make sense.
Ze third thought is to do vith Daisy. Her vote vas strange. It vas, of course, right in retrospect – Reppic vas guilty. But ven she voted, she could not have been certain of zat. But she voted vithout giving any reason vy she vas risking killing ze detective or doctor. If Daisy is innocent, to be so reckless makes no sense.
But I also cannot make sense of I can see no good reason for ze vote if she is guilty. Reppic vas trying to persvade somevun of something ven he claimed to be a special, so zat is either Daisy or Codine or both. Und zere vas no point in him doing zat if vun of his conspirators vas just going to finish him off anyvay. I have already said zat I do not think zis vas a deliberate sacrifice by ze killers. But may be it ended up as vun. In vich case, vat vas ze point of ze claim to be a specialist?
So I do not understand zis. Ze strangeness of ze vote is not proof of guilt. Ze vote itself suggests (but does not prove) innocence. But zere vas clearly some motivation vich I do not get. I vould like to have Daisy's explanation of vy she vas so sure zat Reppic vas lying.
I do not think zat voting for Reppic means zat somevun is innocent. It is qvite possible zat even if ze killers vanted to save him, or tried to, zat zey had vun of zeir group vote against him to avoid suspicion. I do think zat ze concentration of guilty people in ze set of zose who voted to save him is greater zen in ze set zat voted to kill him. Zat is vere I vould start to look.
Of zose, Lesley is dead. I vould guess zat zere is vun killer und ze sympathiser in ze group Choey, Ja'ayem, Hophtrig und Joostein. I had my suspicions of Joostein before. I think zat Hophtrig is likely to be innocent. But I vould like to hear from all three vith ze reasons for zeir voting.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
As I explained when voting, mine was a risky vote to take. It would have been easier as possessed to withdraw and hope that numbers would not reach quorum, or to go out with a stronger reason for why Otto should be suspected. Note that I am in my vote in no way suggesting Otto over Reppik as guiltier, and not pushing for Otto to be offed instead of Reppik. As it happened, I also afterwards corrected Lucy's mistaken idea that Reppik and Otto had an equal number of votes, rendering Reppik the more obvious "offing" as he had more votes than Otto. If Otto and Reppik were both guilty, I would most likely have started voting for Hophtrig very early, possibly even before Choey did so. These are deductions on my actions that I can make in hindsight with information present for the rest of you.
My own vote depended on a somewhat misguided (because of Reppik and Eliabulon's upcoming votes) judgment of the situation and of maximizing the information I could get from those yet to vote. I suppose I could conclude that Daisy looks innocent from having ultimately sealed Reppik's fate. Notably Eliabulon cleared Otto, which looks as innocent as they come, at least for now. I have a hard time thinking that Eliabulon's dialogue with Reppik was invented, which admittedly clashes with my previous idea of her character. I suppose that's another piece of information, however distasteful to have to swallow, that may have come out of my vote. Dämn it.
I shall lick my wounds of pride of having been seemingly rather wrong by ploondering Leslie's and Reppik's bags and storages. I'll be in the baggage compartment if anyone wantings me.
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
Of zose, Lesley is dead. I vould guess zat zere is vun killer und ze sympathiser in ze group Choey, Ja'ayem, Hophtrig und Joostein. I had my suspicions of Joostein before. I think zat Hophtrig is likely to be innocent. But I vould like to hear from all three vith ze reasons for zeir voting.
My reasons for voting.
As I said before (13th 10PM)
Hophtrig seemed to have been willing to martyr himself before the first day,
And although I disagree with it he seems very sincere and if he is insincere I don't really see the motive of keeping up the pretense (or at least not without going into treble bluff).
Reppik's odd behaviour otoh, did fit in with the bad explainations.
Also Zappa was very assertive, I wondered if it was the powers of the detective
(we now know it wasn't). But also wondered if there were bad motivations (which doesn't seem likely either).
On the other hand Hophtrig had also nominated Otto early.
Which also fits the detective picture or bad motivational picture.
Also Otto had then merely counter accused with very little thought.
This dynamic seemed more interesting, and I was more convinced by Hophtrigs innocence than Zappa's
(now things have changed wrt Zappa).
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig felt uncomfortable with Otto's silence. Hophtrig agreed with his friends' suspicions about Otto, that when Otto didn't talk that much, Otto was trying not to look like he was naughty. Hophtrig was about to swallow a big dose of Realife, and wanted to say something before this, so he leapt in early. Hophtrig's early is very early to others with a different time orientation.
Hophtrig thinks that the Graffin's thinking about Reppik: that Reppik tried to save himself only when it was no longer a choice between Otto dying and Reppik dying suggested that Reppik didn't want Otto off the bus. Why not?
Hophtrig knew he called Lovely Lesley lovely for a reason. Lesley was a far more amazing person than Hophtrig could have guessed. Hophtrig will really miss Lesley.
Zapaterietxe, you are the only brainy, shapeshifty one left on this bus, after Crimson left. Would our friend Zapaterietxe be able to build us a new engine, I think that communicator, which Zapaterietxe told Hophtrig about was a pretend communicator and might not be able to get us help. Hophtrig is a little worried that if he keeps trying to fix it, the bus might not be very happy with a hole in the wall.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Hophtrig is showing himself to Otto now. Otto listened to the FBC who is very astute. Hophtrig is very, very suspect and has been after Otto. Hophtrig pretends nice. The FBC agrees that Hophtrig is showing himself as suspect, and wishes to point fingers at Otto. Otto has only his and the FBC's intuition to go on, knows that he is innocent, and now finds Hophtrig's second attack on Otto as confirming that the FBC has correctly identified him.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Grafinn, that is some very interesting analysis.
You never seemed to come to a definite conclusion about whether Zapaterietxe is trustworthy or not. You seemed to lean toward thinking he is, at least for now. Am I reading you correctly?
Of course, Reppik admitted to being somewhat green, and Zapa is very experienced. I want to think that has a lot to do with it.
I can't decide if Otto is guilty or sympathetic or not, but I'm leaning toward guilty. I'm going to think it over more, but my gut feeling is he's worth a close look.
[ 15. March 2014, 18:51: Message edited by: Barefoot Friar ]
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
You never seemed to come to a definite conclusion about whether Zapaterietxe is trustworthy or not. You seemed to lean toward thinking he is, at least for now. Am I reading you correctly?
I do not trust anyvun completely.
But zat said, I can see no plausible vay zat Zapaterietxe is guilty. If he is, ve have to explain vy he led ze accusation of Reppic. Ze only reason for zat is to make a deceptive sacrifice. Zat is certainly possible, und Zapaterietxe is clever enough to do it, but if zat vere right, vy vould ze killers choose zeir vun 'unreadable' as ze sacrifice? Zat does not make sense. He is ze vun zey vant to keep into ze last, decisive votes, to avoid ze detective seeing through all zeir lies.
So having considered vether it is possible zat Zapaterietxe is playing us, I think zat is not a credible view. It is not absolutely impossible. It is possible zat Zapaterietxe is ze sympathiser, und thought zat Reppic vas innocent, and vas spectacularly wrong, but zat is most unlikely. It is much more likely zat Zapaterietxe is innocent, und vas right.
So, ja, at ze moment, I do trust him as much as I believe I vill trust anyvun.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey, like many dumb entities, was vitally aware that ACTIONS speak louder than words. Many words were being thrown around the bus in the dark; so she was taking a long hard look at WHAT her fellow travellers had been doing.
Latest actions first: 3 of her fellow travellers had NOT voted for the Mafia unreadable Reppik Tew during the last round. This made them instantly suspicious. Of course the two mafia and the sympathizer did not want Reppik Tew evicted. These three prime suspects were Hophtrig, Ja’ayem and Joostein Kase.
Hophtrig she had suspected for quite a while. This was why she voted for him. Underneath that creepy kiddy-loving hugger was an evil creepy kiddy-loving hugger. She had become more and more alarmed as others were pairing her with Hophtrig, and, as Ios noted, he was very quick off the mark to nominate Otto.
Otto has now declared his innocence five times. Choey is inclined to believe him. Knowing from the talk before the vote that most of her fellow passengers had already decided to vote for Reppik Tew, Choey did not want Hophtrig to get away scott free for leading the charge against Otto. If Choey gets killed overnight, it will confirm what she is thinking.
The latest round of voting action had proven the good intentions and innocence of three passengers that she had been watching closely, and had been wondering which side of the fence they were on.
Choey is now sure that Lady Celandine, John, and Zapaterietxe are good guys. Otto and Choey are also good guys, though she is fairly certain a great many accusations are about to be raised against them both. She is watching for who will try to deflect attention back on to the innocent.
Choey thinks Hophtrig, Joostein Kase and Ja’ayem need to be investigated thoroughly. She does have a blow torch handy, if any of her fellow travellers with the gift of speech would care to do some interrogating when the lights come back on.
The Grafinn , Ios, Codine and Daisy may be innocent – but one of them may possibly be the sympathizer playing a very clever game. Future actions of these four, and the three who voted for Otto will tell us all a lot. One thing is certain -there will definitely be no more hugs for Hophtrig from Choey. You, my friend, are bad to the bone.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Thank you, Choey! Keep it coming, please.
Grafinn, you're making sense. You are also reinforcing what I've already been thinking (and saying) about Zapaterietxe.
So we have a group who suspects Hophtrig and a group that suspects Otto. I have a question for those who suspect Hophtrig: How do you read his repeated offer to die so that the detectives could read him and thus know which was which? I ask because to me that's what cleared him, but we're at a point now where I'm willing to rethink.
And for those who suspect Otto: Other than his silence and his nomination of Hophtrig, what are you seeing? Admittedly both are throwing a yellow flag for me, but what else is going on?
[ 15. March 2014, 20:42: Message edited by: Barefoot Friar ]
Posted by Starbug (# 15917) on
:
One suspects neither Otto or Hophtrig at this stage. However, one does strongly suspect Grafinn, who has been trying to direct the conversation and lay down 'rules' that may or may not be valid (this is one's first trip of this kind, so one is not too sure). Even if the rules are valid, there has been rather too much dictating from Grafinn, which leads one to be very suspicious.
Like John,one cannot understand why Otto is suspected. So far, all he has down is listen to a snake rather too much. Not necessarily a sign of possession, as the FBC entered the bus with him. One was wrong about Lesly, as she turned out to be merely eccentric and not evil - one suspects the same may be true of Otto.
One is not sure about Hophtrig. He seems innocent and friendly, but has changed his behaviour since the crash. This could be because he is scared, or could be a sign of possession. At the moment, one is keeping him literally at arms length, as hugs are definitely not welcome.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Choey?
Hophtrig is sad that you feel scared of Hophtrig, Hophtrig only wants to be your friend. Hophtrig is sorry that Hophtrig feels suspicious of Otto, Hophtrig is sorry that we have to feel suspicious of anyone, Hophtrig only wants to be friends. Hophtrig knows that it is not anyone's fault if they have been taken over, but Hophtrig knows some of his friends have been, and they need to leave. Hophtrig is sad about this turn of events, and is hoping that everyone possessed will be off the bus soon, so Hophtrig and his friends can go back to having fun without suspecting everyone.
And lovely Lucy, Hophtrig is sorry that you don't like Hophtrig hugs any more.
Hophtrig will always be here with open arms, should anyone need a hug, Otto, Choey and Lucy included. You are all Hophtrig's friends, and Hophtrig is sorry for those who have been possessed, including poor Reppik (not that Hophtrig doesn't think it's a good thing Reppik has gone, since he was) Maybe, Graffin, you'd like a hug. Please?
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey fishes about in the dark and puts her thinking cap back on.
Perhaps it would prove beneficial to once more look at the ACTIONS of those we are discussing.
It is true Hophtrig offered himself as a sacrifice in the first round. If he was a mafia sympathizer, this would be one way to prove himself to them. He also suggested Crimson, John and Lesley for possible nomination. All three of these are innocent of any wrongdoing. He lead the accusations against Otto in the last round, and vouched for Joostein Kase.
Joostein Kase suggested the Grafinn for nomination in both previous rounds, but more importantly deflected attention away from Hophtrig.
Ja'ayem in the first round suggested Ios, Lesley and the Grafinn for nomination, and, please note, applauded Hophtrig's offer of self-sacrifice.
Choey wishes Hophtrig would stop bouncing around the bus in the dark looking for hugs. It was distracting behaviour to say the least.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
And for those who suspect Otto: Other than his silence and his nomination of Hophtrig, what are you seeing? Admittedly both are throwing a yellow flag for me, but what else is going on?
Ze timing of Reppic's claim.
Suppose zat you are Reppic. You are guilty. You vould vish us to kill somevun innocent, und not you. You are planning, if it looks as if you vill be killed, to claim to be ze doctor or detective - vich is risky, as it means you vill be exposed ven ze real vun speaks out (or dies). You also know zat ve (ze innocents) need to evict people to vin, und did not do zat on ze first day, so ve vill certainly vant to execute somevun.
Now suppose you know zat Otto is innocent. Vy not tell your lie ven zere is still a chance for him to be lynched?
Suppose you know he is guilty? Ven you vould not do zat. You vould not save somevun compromised by a false claim to save vun who vas not. You vould vait until Otto vas safe, zen claim.
Just before Reppic told his lie, zere vere four votes left. I had said I vanted to vote for him. He obviously vould not vote for himself, so it vas Daisy und Codine he vished to influence. He vanted zem to not vote for him. But if he had said earlier zat he vas a specialist, it vas entirely possible for him to persvade us to remove Otto. If he had said vich role he had, und no vun contradicted him, I vould have thought it too much of a risk to kill him, and vould certainly not have vanted to vaste anozer chance at finding a killer. Und if Otto is innocent, if Reppic thinks zat Otto is his enemy, zen zere is no reason in ze galaxy vy he should not try to get him killed.
But he did not. He made his claim only ven Otto vas safe. Zat is my main reason for looking closely at Otto, more zan anything Otto has said.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Starbug:
However, one does strongly suspect Grafinn, who has been trying to direct the conversation and lay down 'rules' that may or may not be valid (this is one's first trip of this kind, so one is not too sure). Even if the rules are valid, there has been rather too much dictating from Grafinn
Vat sort of an aristocracy do you have vereever it is zat you come from?
In ze Wrik, "dictating" is ze proper task of ze Landsgraf. It is, as zey say, a feudalism, in vich it is your Count zat votes.
If zis vere a Pavian vessel, zere vould be none of zis discussion. I vould simply decide who ve vould evict. But I am vell-enough travelled to know zat zis is not appreciated in much of ze rest of ze galaxy vere things are not properly ordered as zey are at home. So for zat reason I am very condescending ven with non-Pavians. In both senses of ze vord.
If you think zat zis accommodation to ze vays of ozers is me being dictatorial, zen I cannot understand how ze nobility vere you are from manage to keep ze people in line.
[ 16. March 2014, 01:35: Message edited by: Eliab ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Lady Celandine, all the Eliabulons act this way. And all their relatives and forebears on other planets. Every Eliabulon I have ever known acts this way, because they want to contribute their logic to help create the best chance of us getting out alive. I understand there was once a criminal Eliabulon who acted differently, but I don't think I ever made the acquaintance of that one.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Starbug:
[Hophtrig] has changed his behaviour since the crash. This could be because he is scared, or could be a sign of possession.
So have I. So did Lesley. Ios and Choey have both started talking, which is a very welcome change. Yet both Lesley and I are innocent, and I'm working out the other two.
I'm not saying you're wrong for thinking that, only pointed out that it doesn't automatically mean one is guilty.
On the other hand, you're bang on correct that it can be a symptom of possession. I just tend to think it's a symptom in concert with several others.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Choey:
Perhaps it would prove beneficial to once more look at the ACTIONS of those we are discussing.
What a very good idea, Choey! Why, I think we should look at yours. Wouldn't you just like that? If everyone would turn their attention to the air in front of them, I'll be materializing text in front of you to review:
First, in response to the first time I mentioned any initial suspicions of you, your response, which boils down to: "I'm just a widdle dumb marsupial, of course I'm innocent!" Which isn't what I'd call a defense, but it's early, whatever. Not that much of a chance to have established a track record for yourself to point at, but still, some would think this would be a good chance to start establishing such a record—notice how Ios became a liability to the Possessed once we started wondering about her? Now, that may mean she's Possessed and wanting to stay alive, it may mean she suddenly started having good ideas, or even that she just wanted to stay not-dead, but still, she now has a track record to point to. You, on the other hand…well, let's continue, shall we?
Action number two: nominating "no lynching," a nomination that needs no nomination. It's an ever-present option. Not necessarily suspicious per se, but certainly not entirely innocent, if you grant that voting and lynching gives us information. Ambiguous.
Third: voting for TESS. Not surprising, given that you "nominated" the eternal nominee. So far, a good pattern of pacifism.
Fourth: defending Reppik Tew. Oh Dear. Now doesn't this just look inconvenient for you? Reppik Tew, inscrutable member of the Possessed, being called the healer, the role we, at that point (when we had two investigators), most wanted to protect—and his accuser topping the list of suspicious characters? I think my own innocence, or at least the damage I've done to the Possessed, should be considered likely at this point—and Reppik's guilt is beyond dispute. And here you are, pointing fingers at me, defending him. That's quite an action to consider.
Fifth, a mention of camps forming around me and the Grafinn. Now, I don't know if you've noticed, but neither of us have encouraged anyone to fall in line behind either of us—indeed, we've actively discouraged it. In this fight for our lives, who is Zapaterietxe, and who is Eliabulon? It is rare to see those on this bus who try to encourage a split between us, and, once more, your actions have been noted.
Sixth, bloodlust. After your pacifism of the previous day, we now see how you can hardly contain your desire to see Hophtrig thrown in the dock, while also trying to link me and John (both likely innocents, or, more to the point, trouble for the Possessed) to having accused the "innocent" Otto. Which is interesting that you focused on that, and not the fact that I'd been in an absolute lather clamoring for Reppik's exile to the plane of existence from whence he came. Frankly, Otto didn't make my list of three—heck, even John made that list!—though he did make my list of "most suspicious" at the end of the night, along with a known member of the Possessed, a now-known innocent whom, in my defense, looked guilty to a few of us, and, um, well…you. While I wouldn't dare to hope that I managed to get all three Possessed—Reppik, you, and Otto—in one list on the first day, that would fit some of the evidence, especially your desire to implicate me, John, and G. E. Eliabulon by our suspicions of him, and your being the only person still alive who voted for neither Otto nor Reppik. I should also mention that Hophtrig wasn't the only person who previously voiced suspicions of Crimson; Joostein had as well.
Of course, this was pointed out to you, which leads us to point seven, an attempt to cast aspersions on the Grafinn. Have I mentioned that casting aspersions on the Grafinn for acting like a thin skinned-noble with something to prove (i.e., the Grafinn) is a classic strategy of those up to no good? I rather think I have.
Eighth: the pacifist strikes first. Perhaps trying to deflect attention away from at least one partner in crime, an early vote for Hophtrig. Note ye well, it didn't work. Votes 2 and 3 go for Otto, vote 4 comes from me out to achieve Reppik's ekstasis on a transcendental level, and the rest…well, I'm glad that Lesley turned out to be the pushy type in the end.
Nine: well, if this isn't just a gem of discussion suppression, I don't know what is:
quote:
Otto and Choey are also good guys, though she is fairly certain a great many accusations are about to be raised against them both. She is watching for who will try to deflect attention back on to the innocent.
That wouldn't happen to be a threat coupled with an "I'm innocent because I've said I'm innocent" statement, would it? You say that Otto has claimed to be innocent five times? Here, a present for you:
Zapaterietxe is innocent.
Zapaterietxe is innocent.
Zapaterietxe is innocent.
Zapaterietxe is innocent.
Zapaterietxe is innocent.
Zapaterietxe is innocent.
There. I'm now even more innocent than you claim he is; I've claimed to be innocent six times now! See how easy that was? It's just as convincing when somebody else does it, too. Now, while I'm not quite convinced of Otto's guilt, your eagerness to defend him, for whatever reason, does give me pause. If it weren't for you, I'd have him pegged as no more suspicious than, say, Daisy, who hasn't been talking much either. If you two are in cahoots, I rather think you've shot yourself in the foot.
I'm also looking for the evidence you present against Hophtrig, Ja'ayem, and Joostein, other than the fact they, like you, didn't vote for Reppik—especially given that it's commonly thought, based on behavioral experiments, that the Possessed are rather unlikely to vote as a perfect bloc this early on, when it is more to their advantage to hide, saving their ability to coordinate votes for later when they comprise a greater proportion of the voter pool. And what do we see? You, Otto, and Reppik all voting for different candidates. Now, while I don't see any overwhelming and convincing reason to suspect Otto, besides the fact that you keep protesting his innocence without any evidence to back up that claim, I also haven't seen anything at all that makes me think him not guilty. I'm really not seeing why in the world you would want to claim him as innocent, along with you, and saying that anyone who accuses either of you bears watching. After all, if accusing someone you say is innocent is bad, how much worse must it be to be accused by someone you say is innocent?
Finally, you're right that Hophtrig having sacrificed himself in the first round would have been a great way to have proven himself to have been a Cultists of the Possessors of Nature…emphasis on the past tense. A dead cultist does the Possessed no good, nor, for that matter, themselves any. Or us, come to think of it. I suppose that a truly altruistic cultist could sacrifice themselves at the end of the trip, giving the Possessed the victory at the expense of their own life, but, dare I say it, a fat lot of good that does them. I think that strategy unlikely.
So yes. Consider your advice to look at actions taken. It may just be an observation of a consistent conjunction of events, an explanation that fits the observed facts, or simply a supervening abstraction on temporal particulars, but, by the Absolute, it certainly comes from the best advice you've given us so far!
[ 16. March 2014, 04:39: Message edited by: Ariston ]
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
Finally, you're right that...
(Psst... Zapa... Your code's slipping!)
In the interest of some sort of full disclosure, I should probably mention that I could well have, and ancient relatives of mine have, committed directed assassinations on persons like Crimson. It's a pretty standard move in all forms of battle to aim for people likely to be useful in late stages and take them out early, especially if one does not have a feel for who might possess extraordinary capabilities. I suppose the rather straightforwardness of that could point away from some of the sneakiest minds in the group, but it could also be that they spotted Crimson's implications. Dang, everything seems to be "could be this, could be that". That's why I prefer the straightforwardness of looting and ploondering.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
Finally, you're right that...
(Psst... Zapa... Your code's slipping!)
Ach! That's less than ideal. Let's fix that, shall we?
Somehow, though nobody can quite understand why, the air in the bus feels subtly different, like an ineffable wind might have changed direction.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
A piece of paper appears in midair over the center aisle. Mysterious ink designs and blots appear, rearrange themselves, then disappear; all the while, a voice comes from the page…
Let's see here…judging by the order and number of votes, what can we learn? One vote, the first, was cast by Choey for Hophtrig; the second and third, for Otto, by Ja'ayem and Hophtrig, who nominated Otto. Vote four, the first for Reppik, came from me, as did the second, from Lucy. Lesley voted against lynching; vote seven, the third against Reppik, came from John, who nominated him; the eighth, #4 for R.T., was from Ios, and, incidentally, saved Hophtrig. Vote #9, the fifth against R, came from Otto, despite the fact that he nominated Hophtrig; coincidentally, this is the vote that made him safe. Vote 10 was one of conscience from Joosein Käse against the mathematically eliminated Otto, while #11 was Reppik's sixth, coming from Grafinn E; unsurprisingly, Reppik Tew voted that nobody be lynched, but to no avail, as vote #13, from Daisy, was the seventh, the one needed to condemn him; Codine's final vote for the guilty was a matter of form at that point.
So what do we, or at least I, make of this? First, I think Daisy, despite her reserve, is unlikely to be Possessed, unless she's playing a very good game; I doubt that even the most evil of evildoers would vote to condemn one of their own when there was still a chance to hang the vote and deny us a very crucial victory—and valuable information. Not only do we now know that Reppik was guilty, but also that he, possibly because of his trans-planar nature, was immune to any extraordinary investigative techniques; this means that, if our remaining investigator finds someone else who is unreadable, it'll be as good as finding an innocent. If the Possessed were to sacrifice one of their own, they couldn't have picked a worse choice. Thus, if Daisy were Possessed, she could have chosen Otto or TESS and had a pretty good chance of hanging the vote, depending on Codine's sympathies. While it might have looked more suspicious than casting the deciding vote condemning Reppik to leaving the bus, it's hard to think of something that wouldn't. Of all the unsuspicious actions ever, eliminating the most important member of the Possessed has to be pretty high up there.
Ios, I think, didn't so much vote to save Hophtrig as to condemn Reppik. I didn't exactly detect a massive groundswell of support for sending him after the engine anyway, so I doubt anyone (other than him) much cared he was safe at the time.
Otto, of course, voted to save himself. A rather prudential move, given the circumstances. Of course, a vote for Hophtrig or TESS would have worked just as well—and a vote for Hophtrig would have been expected, given that Otto and the FBS nominated him—but might have looked suspicious. After all, one could read two votes, one from a suspected member of the Possessed, another from the first person to vote (whom, as you may have noticed, I think deserves some slight share of suspicion), as evidence of collusion, especially when Hophtrig really wasn't under any serious suspicion at all. A vote for no lynching also looks suspicious, especially when you're the one in danger of being lynched. So what's the safest bet if you've got something to hide? Go with the guy for whom the writing is pretty much on the wall. Of course, that's also the safest bet if you're just trying not to be killed. I've heard some beings like staying alive, or at least keeping the form they were born with. So boring. I don't know how you all deal with it, to be honest.
Now, had he not nominated Hophtrig, then voted for Reppik, I'd think this less suspicious. If I weren't a bit interested in a possible link between Choey and Otto, I also wouldn't be that suspicious. Trying to save your own skin, or consciousness, or whatever, is generally a good idea. However, there's just a bit too much here that doesn't quite add up. If you adopt the hypothesis that the Possessed are Reppik, Choey, and Otto, then you end up with a perfect three-way split to the vote, a way of keeping any patterns from being drawn. If you look at the first day of voting, you see that two voted for TESS and one (keeping information from a debussing from emerging) and Otto voted for Joostein, who, under this hypothesis, would be innocent (again, keep a pattern from being discerned)—and, having an innocent with a vote against them would be a good thing when the only other vote was against a nogoodnik. This vote splitting and pattern concealment would also make Choey's injunction to look at actions, not words, make sense; if we look only at patterns of voting without any context at all, then there is no pattern linking these three—as there usually isn't this early in this kind of situation. Assuming these three are the Possessed, they've made an effort to hide any overt evidence of collusion, and are now telling us to examine the evidence they've created and manipulated.
So, while I'm not quite sold on Otto being Possessed, there might be something there, especially if Choey is guilty. I don't want to call it an airtight case against him—although making it did give me another angle to understand what Choey meant by looking at actions, not words—but there might be something going one.
…none of you read Synthesized Idealist Script, do you? Fine, I'll translate it, but it loses ever so much of the poetry.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Umm, Zapaterietxe? Sir? Ma'am? It? I believe you are wrong about when people were safe in the voting. For example, I think it was the Grafinn's vote, not mine, which rendered Otto safe. And Otto was not yet safe when Joostein voted for Otto. Have you perhaps overlooked that exactly half the votes are enough to send someone after our engine? An actual majority is not needed. At least, that is what I understand the tour operators to have said.
I don't think this changes the import of what you are saying, though.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey munched on some popcorn in the dark. She wondered why the angel man was being so unpleasant. She was certainly not the only one on the bus who had chosen to communicate little when there was simply nothing to communicate.
As for not nominating or voting for Reppik Tew, she had not seen any evidence to be convinced of his guilt the first time, and when he “recalibrated to appear less threatening” she thought he might have a special role and wanted to see if his actions in the second round might make this clearer.
Being driven by bloodlust was simply a silly accusation. Choey had puzzled over some things from time to time, like how does one lynch a hyperactive feather boa constrictor? And who the Grafinn might nominate for lynching - because the Grafinn’s opinions were always well thought out. But Choey had nominated no-one yet, and voted for a fellow passenger only once, when she had been convinced he was up to no good, and getting away with it.
The detective may well choose to investigate either Otto or Choey overnight, but will probably learn a great deal more that is beneficial to us all by investigating one of the three who voted for Otto. Time will tell.
Choey does not know for sure that Otto is innocent, she merely communicated that she was inclined to believe he is. She has also, until recently, been very suspicious of the angel man. If he chooses to throw his weight into offing a fellow innocent, it is a sad waste of the people power we have left. Choey would be interested to hear from others as to how they are ranking the most innocent to the least, to see if there is any consensus beginning to form.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
As the person whose vote was mistitled by Zapa due to his mathematical deficiencies as one of conscience, instead of one of information, I'd like to note down that it does matter. I stand by the fact that I voted for the wrong person at the absolute wrong time, and I was very clear with it both then and now. (It also concerns me that my words seem to be read less thoroughly after Zapa gave me this deimpedimentor thingy.)
As for the first day, I think taking all those votes for TESS as votes against information means gravely misreading the zeitgeist of yesterday. Something big happened last night: we lost the biggest advantage we had, the high number of investigators. We were essentially as unlucky as we could be. With this followed the change of tactics, because if we had had two people cleared today, tomorrow we would (to quote Eliabulon) be able to have the information necessary to win. Now our potential investigative information is halved. This is an outcome that was predicted in some of my first posts in the matter, and the root of plenty of the ideological quarrels on day 1.
Coding mistakes, vote counting errors, and now a severely deformed memory. Seriously, Zapa, create yourself a grip out of all that thin air that's been getting to you, ok?
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Zapaterietxe, I have to say this is impressive. My favorite bit was the Scripture quotation. Kudos!
You've built what looks on the surface to be a very solid case against Cho Bacca. I really don't see any seams at the moment, although I'll go back over it later, after my RealLyfe pill has worn off.
In the meantime, I'll repeat what I said previously: I think of all the beings left on the bus, Otto, Cho Bacca, Daisy, Codine, and Ios all could benefit from a bit of investigative love. Actually, scratch Ios off that list; I feel good enough to clear her now.
Looking good, folks. Everyone seems to still be alive. Let's keep it that way.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Umm, Zapaterietxe? Sir? Ma'am? It? I believe you are wrong about when people were safe in the voting. For example, I think it was the Grafinn's vote, not mine, which rendered Otto safe. And Otto was not yet safe when Joostein voted for Otto. Have you perhaps overlooked that exactly half the votes are enough to send someone after our engine? An actual majority is not needed. At least, that is what I understand the tour operators to have said.
I don't think this changes the import of what you are saying, though.
Ah. Point taken—I suppose I was counting until tied (except for Reppik's condemnation), though I suppose that a tie vote of 7-7 was as good as impossible as soon as three people had votes in their disfavor. Hm. While this makes Otto perhaps look a bit better, it doesn't affect my judgment of Choey or Daisy. Speaking of which...
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
Choey munched on some popcorn in the dark. She wondered why the angel man was being so unpleasant. She was certainly not the only one on the bus who had chosen to communicate little when there was simply nothing to communicate.
I post ten (when I include the "look at our votes, not our words" bit, eleven) reasons why I think you're trying to kill us all, and yet you wonder why I'm being "unpleasant?" Let me spell it out for you: I don't like people who are trying to kill everyone! You also still think this is based on your (not) talking, don't you? The vote patterns, the implied threats, the directions to look anywhere but you, the protestations of your innocence based only on your own say-so…no, that couldn't possibly be part of it, not at all.
quote:
As for not nominating or voting for Reppik Tew, she had not seen any evidence to be convinced of his guilt the first time, and when he “recalibrated to appear less threatening” she thought he might have a special role and wanted to see if his actions in the second round might make this clearer.
Whereas I thought it was a throwaway line that didn't indicate any special role whatsoever, but rather a realization he was in a bind. Guess which turned out true? quote:
Being driven by bloodlust was simply a silly accusation. Choey had puzzled over some things from time to time, like how does one lynch a hyperactive feather boa constrictor? And who the Grafinn might nominate for lynching - because the Grafinn’s opinions were always well thought out. But Choey had nominated no-one yet, and voted for a fellow passenger only once, when she had been convinced he was up to no good, and getting away with it.
You nominated nobody yet—but have had only two opportunities to do so. Even Reppik only nominated one person, a known innocent. You only voted for someone once, but that was as the first person to vote (quick on the trigger, there, Tex), were the only being to vote for them, and, dare I say it, I think I've explained at least one way we can understand your voting and nominations as part of a pattern of overall information suppression on the part of the Possessed. quote:
The detective may well choose to investigate either Otto or Choey overnight, but will probably learn a great deal more that is beneficial to us all by investigating one of the three who voted for Otto. Time will tell.
In other words: "I'm innocent because I say I am, don't investigate me, please!" Which, if you've got something to hide, would be a great idea for you, and very very bad for us. You're also assuming that one of the three who voted for Otto is guilty—but, as I explained, vote coordination among the Possesed could be done to avoid voting for Otto. If you're indeed Possessed, investigating one of three innocents would be an excellent way to capitalize on your vote manipulations. quote:
Choey does not know for sure that Otto is innocent, she merely communicated that she was inclined to believe he is. She has also, until recently, been very suspicious of the angel man. If he chooses to throw his weight into offing a fellow innocent, it is a sad waste of the people power we have left. Choey would be interested to hear from others as to how they are ranking the most innocent to the least, to see if there is any consensus beginning to form.
1. "I'm suspicious of the person so obviously trying to help the innocents." Of course you are! And again, claiming innocence on your own say-so?
2. Interested in hearing from others? Well, finally, another good sign. Looks like someone learned from Reppik. I'll think this one over, but you probably know who's at the very top. ![[Biased]](wink.gif)
[ 16. March 2014, 16:54: Message edited by: Ariston ]
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
A reminder that those who haven't taken night actions yet have twelve hours to do so.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey sucked on a chocolate thickshake thoughtfully. She was surprised the angel man was painting such a big target on himself if he was as innocent as she thought he was.
It would be an ideal situation for the bad guys if two innocents go into accusation mode before the next murder. The mafia can simply kill one of them, so that the other becomes the main suspect.
Choey had spent much of the last round thinking that John and Zapaterietxe were the likely Mafia and Lady Celandine the sympathizer. The voting in the last round had changed her opinion. It was ironic that the very person she had most suspected now wanted her dead.
She was also beginning to think that the angel man was displaying more aggression than sense - but then some species were very strange. What it did prove though, was that Zapaterietxe was no detective. Perhaps that was his saving grace.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
She was surprised the angel man was painting such a big target on himself if he was as innocent as she thought he was.
It would be an ideal situation for the bad guys if two innocents go into accusation mode before the next murder. The mafia can simply kill one of them, so that the other becomes the main suspect.
Is that a threat? 'Cause it sure looks like one.
If you "spent most of the last round" thinking I or Zapaterietxe was guilty, then why didn't you do something about it? Why wait around without nominating someone, and then immediately vote for Hophtrig? Or do you think he's in on it too?
No, I'm not buying it. I think you're the guilty one, and I think you're trying to deflect attention from yourself.
[ 16. March 2014, 20:05: Message edited by: Barefoot Friar ]
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
There is an obvious difference between a threat and expressing surprise at stupidity. Choey might be a dumb animal, but she was beginning to think a couple of her fellow passengers were not as smart as they thought they were.
Accusations in the dark only play into the hands of the bad guys. Thinking through the list of likely innocents is far more beneficial for the good guys.
The next round will be critical for each side. This is not a threat. This is just a reflection of the way things are.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
There is an obvious difference between a threat and expressing surprise at stupidity. Choey might be a dumb animal, but she was beginning to think a couple of her fellow passengers were not as smart as they thought they were.
Accusations in the dark only play into the hands of the bad guys. Thinking through the list of likely innocents is far more beneficial for the good guys.
The next round will be critical for each side. This is not a threat. This is just a reflection of the way things are.
And this explains why you were so quick to vote for Hophtrig rather than me or John how? I suppose you could be another Lesley—an innocent who just happens to have every single mark of guilt, with a giant "LYNCH ME" sign tacked on your back for good measure. Or you could be very, very, guilty, and have inadvertently tipped me off to examine your acts and deeds in an attempt to hide them. And yes, I realize my efforts against the Possessed have probably earned me their attention. It's a risk I'm willing to take that we might all live. To examine the evidence, look for problems, and pursue leads wherever they might go—well, it got Reppik thrown off the bus, didn't it?
And if you think I'm being unnecessarily harsh, then consider what happened to Ios and John when they answered my questions: I moved on. Being forthright and open satisfies those of us trying to deduce the truth; trying to dodge, evade, or conceal only makes us suspicious and determined to find out what you're hiding. A rebuttal or explanation of your actions would have ended this attention; your shock, insinuations, and baseless protestations of innocence only make me more suspicious.
But, let's start working through a few scenarios, some more likely than others:
Choey is guilty, along with Otto: I've already analyzed this one previously. I still have my doubts about Otto's guilt, although others seem to have less. Also, it seems just too perfect to have fingered all three of the Possessed this early.
Choey is guilty, along with someone who isn't Otto: in this case, who's the third? The usual assumption is that, for concealment's sake, the guilty never vote the same way in the first round, although it's been known to happen; if this is true, then we're looking for someone who didn't vote for TESS—i.e., for Joostein. If we're eliminating Otto, that leaves us with G.Ek.El. and Ios. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that, since nobody got kidnapped rather than murdered last night, she didn't somehow get the tour director to give her two extra votes, and she hasn't started a campaign for us to grant her power over life and death, the Grafinn is probably not Possessed. Given that nothing Weird like that has happened, I feel safe clearing her name from suspicion. This leaves Ios, who, while extremely helpful, could also be extremely deceitful. I'd also suspect her of being able to read Crimson's cues—but there are others who could do that too. So this combination—Reppik, Choey, and Ios—seems to be the most likely if Choey is guilty and Otto is not.
Choey is guilty, Otto is not, the Possessed voted as a bloc the first round: So who's working with Choey is Otto isn't, then, and isn't Ios? Hophtrig seems unlikely, unless Choey's playing one heck of a bluff here; I'd expect to see more or a reaction from Hophtrig to being accused if those two were coordinating with one another—a bigger fight to draw attention to the animosity between them, that sort of thing. Hophtrig's response to having Choey after him seems to be uncoordinated, so I doubt those two are working together. This leaves us with John, Lucy, Codine, Ja'ayem, and Joostein. Reasonable as John usually seems to be—and nominating Reppik isn't something I'd normally suspect a guilty party to do, unless the writing was really on the wall for them—his constant agreeing with me does make me wonder if he's trying flattery to get me to look away from him. Thanks, but I don't need anyone else to tell me I'm clever—I already know. Lucy, while not exactly acting suspiciously, does seem to be following the noise a bit, suspecting those who make it and voting for those who attract it. Not suspicious, really, especially for someone on their first bus tour, but it does make me want to make sure that those attracting attention are guilty, those paying attention include me. Codine seems to have attracted suspicion from all quarters early on mostly for her silence; since then, she's been late in voting. While I'm becoming less confident in my ability to count whose vote is decisive, I'm pretty sure voting when the writing for the ever-living TESS is very much on the wall (day 1) and voting with the majority only when things have been decided (day 2) isn't exactly sticking your neck out and taking a risk. Very quiet, perhaps suspicious, or both. Ja'ayem and Joostein are the most suspicious of this group if Otto is innocent, given that they both cast meaningful votes against Otto, and both suspected the (likely innocent) Eliabulon (and Joostein nominated her the first day, besides casting suspicion on Crimson, voting late, and defending Choey). Of the two, Joostein seems the more suspicious right now, but I'm willing to see how this plays out. Again, when you have a band of killers lurking among you, everything looks suspicious; our only hope is to hope one of them is either flushed out like Reppik was or takes the bait someone throws to them.
Choey is innocent, Otto is guilty, someone else is the third: So, despite Choey's attempt to link her fate and innocence with Otto's, turns out they're playing on different teams (Choey's our Cultist, perhaps?). So who's playing with Otto, if not her? Not Joostein, who voted against Otto and for whom Otto voted—and not in unmeaningful ways, either. I mean, I guess you could argue it's a very cunning bluff—wouldn't put it past 'em, to be honest—but you'd have to honestly believe that Joostein's vote for Otto was cast at a time when the tide of voting couldn't be turned against Otto and that it was cast at a time likely to result in a hung vote to save Reppik. I guess the second case, a hung vote, could be argued, but... Ditto Hophtrig, who seems to have suspected Otto from early on, and nominated/voted for him as well, despite probably not being on Choey's side. We're looking for someone who voted for neither Otto nor Reppik yesterday until it didn't matter, aside from the marginal case of Joostein; it would also help if they had prior experience of this kind of trip, as Otto is a greenhorn traveler and, while I wouldn't want to underestimate him, much less Reppik, it seems reasonable to look for someone who could suss out an investigator. Codine seems like an obvious choice (see every other piece of evidence against her; in this case, I'm guessing she's the experienced one who caught that Crimson was the inspector), and, try as I might, I'm having trouble finding anyone else who fits the profile I'm thinking of quite as well as she does.
Neither Choey nor Otto are possessed: Unlikely, but hey: contingencies. If this is the case, we're looking for two beings, both of whom were in cahoots with Reppik, neither of whom were working with Crimson, Lesley, Choey, Otto, G.Ek.El, nor myself, both of whom have probably tried to hide their votes when combined with Reppik, and both of whom are probably cackling maniacally right now, despite being a being down. So let's start over from the beginning, considering innocent only those beings listed above (yes, Grafinn, if you've been Possessed, I will gladly materialize a hat just to eat it as my first and last meal). Our list of possible suspects, of whom two must be guilty and collaborating with one another—and, unless Reppik did it, experienced enough to catch a detective—are Joostein, Hophtrig, Ja'ayem, Codine, Lucy, Daisy, John, and Ios. Furthermore, I'm going to assume vote splitting or hiding on the part of the Possessed; otherwise, things get really complicated really fast, due to the number of votes for TESS on day 1 and for Reppik on day 2.
Working with these assumptions, Hophtrig looks really bad. He's only ever cast suspicion on known innocents, has made odd plans of action, and has been out for Otto since pretty much the very beginning—if anything, his zeal is so suspicious that it almost works in his favor. If he was working with someone else, they'd surely tell him to knock it off before the rest of us caught on to it. So who would he be working with—who is voting in a way that would conceal both them and Reppik? The only being on our shitlist who didn't effectively vote for Ms. Tess on Day 1, and voted out of sync with both Hophtrig and Reppik, would be Ios, who fits the profile of the third Possessed. Once again, all the usual caveats about her apply—this is a case where guilt implies guilt more than guilt stands alone—but there seem to be a few situations where Ios might look a bit suspicious. Next would be Codine, whose late (and thus immaterial) vote for Reppik could be ignored on the one hand (and thus linked with Ios based on the votes on day 1), or considered to link her with Joostein, whose late TESS vote on day 1 would be ignored. She could also be in cahoots with John, who would be doing a very good job of acting innocent and trying to conceal his role and butter me up; not likely, but it would be extremely dangerous if it were true.
The more I look at it, the more I'm convinced that, if both Choey and Otto are innocent, and if the Possessed are splitting their votes, then Ios must be guilty, with Joostein, Hophtrig, or Ja'ayem as her accomplice—probably Hophtrig. Most everybody else, like, say, Lucy, doesn't have a voting pattern that fits what the Possessed would usually do, given the usual assumptions. Hmmm. A puzzle to start working on now, just in case things don't work out as we hope they do.
Now then: possible Possessed strategies. Who do you kill tonight? Well, isn't it obvious? If I'm wrong and she's innocent, take out Choey and make me look bad! It'd also take some of the heat off of Otto, with whom she's been linking herself, if he's guilty. Kill me, and Choey looks bad, as does everyone I've ever accused, so…everyone, but probably (after all this) Otto, John, Codine, and Ios; kill Otto, and Choey looks bad, and Hophtrig looks good (as does, to some degree, Joostein and Ja'ayem) 86'ing Joostein or Ja'ayem makes Otto look a bit more suspect; eliminate the Grafinn or Ios, and someone respected as a powerful adversary is gone; kill John, and someone new to the bus but with great potential can never show it; and Codine, Lucy, or Daisy would be safe choices that would likely reveal nothing…or take out a hiding investigator or doctor, if we're unlucky. The next killing might just tell us what we need to know about the Possessed, their motivations, and their strategies.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey was grateful that the dark angel had at least been able to do some lucid summaries.
Choey had decided to bring some attention to bear on Hophtrig for a very good reason. She knew she had incurred the wrath of the mafia by voting for him, and expected them to try to take her out one way or the other. If they took her out overnight, she wanted the other innocent passengers to know Hophtrig has been playing a game of deliberate distraction and doing it very well.
And if the mafia don't kill her, it is quite possible a lynching party will. Either way, it's not right to die on an empty stomach. Choey thought hard about a seven course meal, beginning with a mint julep apperitif and hoped she wouldn't spill any in the dark.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Zapaterietxe:
kill Otto, and Choey looks bad, and Hophtrig looks good (as does, to some degree, Joostein and Ja'ayem)
Please explain. I would think killing Otto makes Choey The Otto Defender look good, and Hophtrig The Otto Nominator look bad.
[edited to fix code]
[ 17. March 2014, 04:59: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I really hope our Detective has investigated at least one of Otto, Choey, or Hophtrig. And if we look like making a bad vote tomorrow, (which is almost today), and the detective has information that could help, would it be time for the detective to reveal him/her/itself, and trust to the doctor for protection tomorrow night?
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Ios, I think Zapaterietxe did make a mistake there if Otto dies and Otto is not naughty, it would look very bad for Hophtrig and good for Choey. If Otto is naughty, he will probably not die overnight. Hophtrig is going to keep suspecting Otto, especially now that Hophtrig knows that a naughty person, Reppik, didn't try to save his own hide when doing so might have endangered Otto. Hophtrig thinks Graffin is very clever for pointing that out.
Hophtrig could be wrong, Hophtrig has been wrong before and probably will be again. Hophtrig likes all his friends and doesn't want ony of them to have to get off, but Hophtrig doesn't trust Otto, and thinks Otto is trying to hurt Hophtrig's friends, so Hophtrig thinks maybe it would be better if Otto left.
Hophtrig still wants to be friends with Choey, but the things his friend Choey has been saying are starting to make Hophtrig feel sad.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ios:
quote:
Originally posted by Zapaterietxe:
kill Otto, and Choey looks bad, and Hophtrig looks good (as does, to some degree, Joostein and Ja'ayem)
Please explain. I would think killing Otto makes Choey The Otto Defender look good, and Hophtrig The Otto Nominator look bad.
Glad somebody's paying attention. If you saw the diagrams I've got materializing, dematerializing, recombining, reassorting themselves according to different guilt/innocence combinations, all for far longer than I probably should be…well, the fact that I let only one invalid guilt situation (I was assuming Otto was guilty in this case—now why would the Possessed lynch one of their own, now that I think about it?) seems surprising. If somebody else could go over my work and make sure I didn't miss anything else, it'd be appreciated. There's a lot there, I'll admit—trying to avoid the least optimal situation, "everybody dies," has been a bit on my mind lately—but still. Whatever it is I'm overlooking is probably the one thing we need to clinch our survival.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
The lights go back on. Dimthing Tours are sorry to inform everyone that Lady Celandine (Starbug) has been murdered. She was the detective.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey was startled when the lights back on and she was still alive.
She put down the bowl of green tea ice cream and looked around for Zapatarietxe. He was alive too. But the gracious and noble Lady Celandine was not.
Losing the detective is a bitter blow. Had she left any clues? Choey hopes so. They all needed to avoid sending any more innocent passengers out the airlock if they possibly could help it.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig is very scared. Hophtrig wonders how the naughty beings either got so lucky, or figured out who had the knowledge to out them. Who next, the doctor?
Lucy suspected the Graffin and Hophtrig, the Graffin more so, but Hophtrig thinks the way she was talking about them might have been guessing, not knowing. Otto's innocence sounded more like she knew something but was too scared to say so. Or perhaps Hophtrig is just trying to read something in hindsight that wasn't there. Hophtrig still isn't comfortable about Otto, especially since Reppik saved Otto's life, but saying goodbye to Lucy has made Hophtrig think more deeply about Hophtrig's good friend Lucy's suspicions and otherwise.
Hophtrig will miss Celadine, or lovely Lucy as Hophtrig knew her. Hophtrig is very worried, and wonders if anyone wants to help him work on the back wall of the bus some more, see if removing another layer or two will expose the workings of the communicator which seemed to be there, so we can call for help. We surely need it.
Choey, I know you're a little worried about Hophtrig, but can Hophtrig please borrow some tools for trying to find the communicator, again?
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Detective! Crap, that's a major pain. How the hell did they figure out both our detectives?
And how did I miss the fact that she was the detective? I had Zapaterietxe pegged as the inspector, with a second possibility being Ios or something. Dang.
Well, then. I nominate Otto on the basis of this:
quote:
Picking her way carefully past Otto and his feather boa constrictor, she sat firmly and deliberately next to John. He seemed a trustworthy sort.
The boa constrictor was looking suspiciously at Hopthrig. She wondered why. Could his change of behaviour since the crash mean that he was possessed?
I'm choosing to believe that was a subtle tell on her investigation. I caught it yesterday, but I already had a wagon going on Reppik.
And Zapaterietxe, if I'm right and Otto is guilty, perhaps you can find it within yourself to clear me once and for all. Because only an idiot would nominate his guilty cohorts two freaking days in a row.
[ 17. March 2014, 09:41: Message edited by: Barefoot Friar ]
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
Zis is unfortunate.
Ve can at least learn something from zis setback. Lady Celandine had vun opportunity to determine ze guilt or innocence of vun person. Since she had zat opportunity she made ze following assessments:
After Crimson vas murdered:
quote:
Picking her way carefully past Otto and his feather boa constrictor, she sat firmly and deliberately next to John. He seemed a trustworthy sort.
Und at ze same time:
quote:
The boa constrictor was looking suspiciously at Hopthrig. She wondered why. Could his change of behaviour since the crash mean that he was possessed?
Ven voting:
quote:
With so many votes for Otto, what shoud, she do? Despite all the arguments, she wan't convinced of his guilt - there just didn't seem to be enough evidence.
Und at ze same time:
quote:
As for Hophtrig, he seemed to have calmed down but was that evidence of possession? He may simply be afraid.
After ze vote:
quote:
One suspects neither Otto or Hophtrig at this stage.
(und she gave reasons for zat)
Und at ze same time:
quote:
However, one does strongly suspect Grafinn
(und she gave reasons for zat)
Only vun of zose stands out as “firm” und “deliberate”. Und all ze others have reasons given, und, in Hophtrig’s case, zere vas a definitely lessening of suspicion, as if ze discussion vere making her consider vether he vas guilty.
I am ze vun person zat she said clearly zat she suspected, but she did not nominate me, nor did she express any doubt about ze ejection of Reppic, vich I supported.
All ze comments look to me as if zey vere deductions, und not detective findings, except for vun. John is innocent.
(Und not unreadable – if he vere unreadable, Lady Celandine vould have known ven Reppic died zat he vas also innocent, but she said zat she trusted him before zen).
(Crossed vith John. Who I think is right about zere being a clue, but wrong about vat is vas - I think it vas zat he is innocent, not zat Otto is guilty. Also, John vas talking more, und Celandine vas more likely to have investigated him zan Otto).
[ 17. March 2014, 09:54: Message edited by: Eliab ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
My analysis this morning is that Otto is guilty. I also strongly suspect Choey because of her own guilty merits, but also by association. I'm coming after you tomorrow, Choey, so get ready. Who the sympathizer is I don't know and frankly don't really care.
That leaves everyone else innocent (well, except the sympathizer).
But what if Choey is another Lesley? What if she just looks guilty?
I can see several possibilities.
What if Otto and Codine are the other Possessed? Codine hasn't given us anything to clear or convict him. Sympathizer? Silent third member of the Possessed? We don't really know.
Both Joostein and Ja'ayem have been slowly falling over the past day or so in my estimation. Ja'ayem started strong, but hasn't really added much since. Joostein I think would have to be playing a much more subtle, double-agent-type role. I still consider them innocent, and I kind of have a hard time seeing them in cahoots with Otto, given both of them voted against him yesterday. Joostein kind of painted a huge arrow on his vote. Was it a bluff? I doubt it, but I'll keep an eye on it.
Ios just started talking and just cleared herself with me. But it's still early and there's no telling what could be going on behind the scenes. Otto and Ios? Doesn't seem likely, somehow, but I guess anything is possible.
Hophtrig? But he's been pretty suspicious of Otto all along. Why would he be doing that if they were allies? Why wouldn't he be pointing at Choey or another innocent? Perhaps it's a bluff, meant to keep suspicion off himself, since anyone who suspects a cleared person is usually considered guilty, while those who suspect guilty (or at least shady) people are generally cleared. I don't think this is the case, but it actually would be my second bet if Choey were to turn out to be innocent.
That's about it. I don't suspect Zapa or Eliabulon at the moment (although if either is guilty, I will put "I was fooled by [Name] in Mafia" in my sig for a month).
Daisy hasn't been around at all this whole time (RealLyfe, I think). Thus hasn't really participated. I know that proves nothing, but I don't think she's possessed.
I need to go back and reconsider our conversations to see if I can find anything else. But my money is on Otto and Choey.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Search through the files, look at what Celandine actually said about different people, and when she said them. Use ctrl+f and type "starbug", her chosen username, in the entertainment control pad. She gave reasons for her ONE major accusation, but they were fluffy at best - as can be expected of a detective trying to hide his or her tracks. It is also the only time she definitively spoke out on anyone, the only thing that could lead to someone guessing her identity - she must've guessed a bit too right somewhere, out of the blue to be spotted.
I'd like to add two more factoids.
1. The mafia have spotted two detectives. They must read through the files as clearly as anyone else and be very thorough. This is not a beginner's work.
2. The mafia has specifically struck detectives, which must have taken certain work to look at. They have not gone for doctors or to stir up folks against one another. This takes awareness of the mathematics going on at present: survival of the detective and we would have won. Some will say that it is obvious to go for the detectives. It isn't, when you cannot be sure of hitting it straight. Celandine was not an obvious hit.
The possessed do appear to play by a certain model - that of taking out those that could create victory by numbers. A certain someone has previously declared this to be their favourite type of victory, and is known to be of an utmost rigid mind. When this model has come to conflict, in a way it only does in very special cases (such as multiple good specialists), with that of killing for information, the person in question has gone with the latter model in this situation. That is one of the reasons for my earlier suspicions.
To return to the timing of the accusation, it came before the night, after taking out one mafia. It is Celandine's only remark of importance, that counter-acted the general mood of the group. I think she considered that with one possessed gone, the information about 50 % of the remaining ones was too important to risk having died over. Otherwise there would be no reason for her to put up that information just before the night.
It is the only thing explaining how she was found out, why she would be killed, the aberrations of a major poster (in otherwise very rigid tactics) and the well-developed strategy and deep insight of the Possessed, in my view.
Gräfinn Yekätärinä Eliäbuløøn, ve vould - as you vould have it - feel foolish if ve did not nominate you and you later turned out to be an outpointed Possessed. You're it.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
All ze comments look to me as if zey vere deductions, und not detective findings, except for vun. John is innocent.
(Und not unreadable – if he vere unreadable, Lady Celandine vould have known ven Reppic died zat he vas also innocent, but she said zat she trusted him before zen).
(Crossed vith John. Who I think is right about zere being a clue, but wrong about vat is vas - I think it vas zat he is innocent, not zat Otto is guilty. Also, John vas talking more, und Celandine vas more likely to have investigated him zan Otto).
And I crossed with you.
This makes a lot more sense, but it also leaves my hurried (and angry, if I'm honest) nomination without the weight that I thought it had. (And here I was planning to not nominate anyone early again...)
Okay. I still suspect Otto. I think Choey actually has a bit more working against her, but Otto's name keeps coming up over and over, and not in good ways. He keeps saying he's innocent, but as several have pointed out, just saying you're innocent doesn't prove a damn thing. In fact, that's a big reason why I suspect Otto. Words are cheap. Otto isn't doing anything to back his words up.
So I don't care which one goes down today. Given the opportunity, I'll probably vote for Choey, but I'll gladly vote for Otto, too.
All this does show that I seriously need to pay more attention to what I read!
Posted by Starbug (# 15917) on
:
***flashback to last night***
In the darkness, Lady Celandine suddenly found herself held in a vice-like grip. Unseen hands were dragging her towards the airlock. Her mob cap fell to the floor and, with it, the hidden dollar bill. She struggled violently and, in the half-light of the opened outer door, could just make out the features of someone she recognised.
'You,' she gasped. 'I tried to warn the others about you, but they wouldn't...' Her lip trembled and she bit it to regain composure. A De Cooperhoop never showed emotion in front of a being of inferior breeding. Daddy would expect her to make a Good Death. '...they wouldn't listen.'
Hands were pushing her towards the open door. She raised her voice, trying to attract the attention of the other passengers. 'Listen to me, all of you! Think about everything I said before! Don't trust the...'
Too late. She was outside in the darkness. She vaguely heard a door slam behind her. The force of leaving the airlock dislodged the rest of Daddy's money and, in her final moments, Celandine watched as the millions of Etruvian dollars drifted away into hyperspace.
Her final words echoed round for a few moments and then faded into silence.
'Don't trust the... don't trust the... don't trust the...'
[ 17. March 2014, 11:12: Message edited by: Starbug ]
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
quote:
Picking her way carefully past Otto and his feather boa constrictor, she sat firmly and deliberately next to John. He seemed a trustworthy sort.
The boa constrictor was looking suspiciously at Hopthrig. She wondered why. Could his change of behaviour since the crash mean that he was possessed?
Choey pointed a light display of her thoughts on the wall.
Lady Celandine could be giving us clues as to the three she did suspect first. Having investigated John and found him trustworthy, perhaps the other two were next on her list. I am still nominating Hophtrig even though I know there will now be a counter-nomination against me and a groundswell to throw me off the bus. Otto may or may not be guilty, but I suspect Hophtrig most of all.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
But Joostein, you were after the Grafinn the very first freaking day and yet here you are, still alive. If given a choice between bumping off a quiet one who has said one line about me, or a talkative one who has been arguing with everything I say, I'll take the talkative one.
I've re-read Lady de Cooperhoop's input, and I am not seeing a detective claim, subtle or otherwise. I'm sure if the doctor had figured it out, he/she/it would have protected her, so I know I'm not alone. It's just not there. Can someone show me?
I do fully agree with your point that this isn't the work of beginners. You're completely right about the fact that taking out both detectives on consecutive nights is the work of a mastermind. At the moment, both Zapaterietxe and Eliabulon fit that particular bill. I don't know yet if anyone else does or not.
Of course, it could also be random chance. Even a blind acorn finds a hog sometimes.
I tell you what, though. I was fully expecting Zapaterietxe to get bumped during the night, given the amount of pain he's caused the Possessed. I was then going to see who took the lead in the morning, mainly to see who else I could trust. I also wanted to go after Choey. She would be the most suspicious to me since she was under Zapa's spotlight right before he was killed.
But I got thrown off by Lady Celandine's death, and reacted badly (and still am, I think). I'm still working under the assumption that it's Otto and Choey, because until your post that has made the most sense. I think Lady Celandine investigated me, found me innocent, and then was speculating on Hophtrig and Otto and Eliabulon. I flat mis-read her first post the first morning as being an indictment on Otto, but she actually doesn't really mention him except to stay away from him. It was before my coffee kicked in, so whatever. I want to go back and re-analyze everything for myself, once I've gotten a couple more cups.
But what if you're right?
It makes Zapaterietxe look either foolish or sympathetic. He's been stomping down any suggestion of camps between him and Eliabulon, which amounts to clearing her. Rather strongly, I might add. You'll remember at the very beginning I had my doubts about Eliabulon as well. Heck, I think most of us have. Zapaterietxe has worked to try to stop that. If you're right, then it would be because Zapa got fooled (which is unlikely) or is the sympathetic (which is more unlikely).
Remember, Zapa also was ready to lynch Reppik on the very first day. Why would the Possessed do this to themselves? And even more importantly, why would the sympathizer try to lynch a Possessed on the first day? To build street cred? But aren't there other ways to do that which don't involve limiting your chances to win? And since the sympathizer cannot contact the Possessed, wouldn't lynching one of them and then telling the innocents how to win be a very dangerous move? And not only dangerous, but counter to the very role itself?
It also means that anyone who has agreed with the Grafinn look foolish, too. I spent most of the first day and part of the second working out if there was something to Joostein's suspicions, or if they were just misreading each other. I decided on the latter, and have said so repeatedly. Thus I stand to look dumb.
And what if you're wrong?
Then I think you're either dreaming or else you're possessed. At the moment my only reasoning is that it would be a great gambit. You somehow notice that Lady Celandine is innocent, you bump her off, and then you blame the one everyone loves to blame just to see if you can get a fire started. You know both detectives are dead, and thus we can't check either one of you out. We're going to have to off somebody to read them.
I don't know. I've got some RealLyfe to attend to, but I'm going to mull it over.
I'd love to hear from some others, please. Specifically, Zapaterietxe, Eliabulon, and Ja'ayem.
And just before hitting the button, I checked and she posted her death scene. Complete with "Don't trust the..."
Eliabulon, you're going down.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ohfer crissake, exclaimed Ios, using an exclamation common among The Very Ancient Beings Who Came Before Us. Now I'll have to read the whole friggin transcript again.
I haven't read the posts since the announcement of Lady Celandine's death (cripes, you beings are busy posters while a personal data assistant is taking her shower), but I quick want to say this before I slow down and reread:
I was surprised by Hophtrig's quick nomination of Otto, and thought it must be because Hophtrig was the Detective: he had lucked into hitting a Possessed the first night, and with Crimson's death he knew whether to interpret his results positively or invert them. So now I retract all that and have to rethink things. So my suspicions of Otto and Choey may be based on nothing. On the other hand, there does seem to be a strong circumstantial case against Otto and Choey. But it may turn out to be as much a mirage as my belief that Hophtrig was the Detective.
Fer crissake, fer crissake, fer crissake, Ios could be heard muttering as she retreated into her seat with a tall pile of transcript.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Codine shook his head, trying to process it all. He'd thought Otto seemed kind of guilty, but he wasn't at all sure. Hophtrig still seemed innocent, and Ios too. John seemed pretty innocent too. After all, why would any possessed person nominate one of their own?
And what to make of Lady Celandine's last words. Were they informed or were they merely revenge? Because practically she hadn't actually been campaigning against single person. He got his master's clothes ready for the day, but his mind was elsewhere. This all required more thinking.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Choey, why do you suspect Hophtrig over anyone else? Your vociferous defense of Otto makes no sense to me unless it's that of someone with certain knowledge. Since we now know you're not the detective, the only other place for that certain knowledge to come from would be if you're Possessed or the Sympathizer.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig is even more suspicious.
Hophtrig knows only one person on board with a title, which a "the" could be applied before. The Graffin.
Hophtrig wants to trust the Graffin, for the Graffin has spoken what sounded a lot like wisdom. But Hophtrig is beginning to wonder. Hophtrig is confused, which makes Hophtrig sad.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
We have several nominations at the moment.
The first was Otto, whom I nominated. I'm regretting that now, because it was done in anger and without careful consideration. I had remembered something Celandine said and thought it was proof of guilt, when actually it wasn't that at all. Note this doesn't mean I'm convinced Otto is innocent. It just means you can't act surprised if I don't vote for him. I still think that he's acting in a suspicious way, and if he ends up looking like the best candidate I may still vote for him. What I'm saying is I'll have to think on it some more.
The next one is the Grafinn, by Joostein. Joostein has an interesting argument, and if true it has some pretty big implications. However, a quick peruse over the Grafinn's contributions suggests that she is innocent. Of course, she could be outright lying. But at first glance it appears that saying what she's said and voting for whom she's voted really hurt the Possessed cause. By my independent calculations (and hers, at the time she did it), her vote kept Otto alive. Further, hers was the sixth and penultimate vote needed to lynch Reppik, who we now know as Possessed and unreadable. As someone (Zapaterietxe?) pointed out, sacrificing an unreadable Possessed is a dumb move this early, and one would expect a veteran Eliabulon to know this.
There is only one scenario (assuming Eliabulon is guilty) that makes sense. That is that she somehow figured out that Celandine was the detective (perhaps the very post that cleared me?) and knew that unreadable or not it didn't matter if Reppik died, since our detective was (about to be) history. What she couldn't have counted on, however, was where the doctor was. That was a very, very big risk to take, and would depend on whether the doctor twigged on Celandine's status as well. If so, it would be a thwarted assassination. If not, then it would probably be safe. It was also a big risk was to sacrifice Reppik in the first place; since we hadn't lynched anyone the night before we were actually ahead. If Eliabulon was guilty, she very well could have voted for Otto and no one would have batted an eye, because she'd already been threatening to do so.
I want to pause a moment and address something that's been bothering me this morning. Last night, Zapaterietxe posted this:
quote:
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that, since nobody got kidnapped rather than murdered last night, she didn't somehow get the tour director to give her two extra votes, and she hasn't started a campaign for us to grant her power over life and death, the Grafinn is probably not Possessed.
I'm sorry, but that's not a good reason to clear the Grafinn. The first one doesn't matter one way or the other; it's just semantics. It seems reasonable to think that if this was true, she would be demanding that those we lynch be put in a jail cell of some sort instead of stuffed out the door. But really, the game is to kill or be killed; kidnapping has never had any part of it. The second reason you list here is completely irrelevant. Are you seriously suggesting that Dafyd would give her or anyone else another vote under any circumstances? And the third is simply ridiculous. So I went back to the post where you said she was acting like always, and you pointed out that the only time she didn't she was guilty. Fine and good, except Eliab is smart. Probably too smart. We keep commenting that Eliabulon's behavior is normal, and that's why we don't suspect her. On the other hand, that's the best cover ever. Whether calculated or unwitting, you've given her perfect camoflauge. So I want to know why you've been so carefully stomping out any suggestion that Eliabulon is guilty. What about her makes you think she's innocent and not just playing innocent in a very clever way? And if you think she's innocent, then how do you answer Joostein's argument?
Back to my discussion.
The third nomination we have is for Hophtrig, made by (surprise) Choey. Frankly, I don't know what to make of this. I note that Codine suspects him, Celandine suspected him, Joostein seems to suspect him, Otto suspects him, and Choey suspects him. That's five (if I'm reading Joostine right). That is significant, I think. Fewer people had voiced suspicions of Reppik, and it turned out he was Possessed. So while I'm struggling to see what evidence we have to convict him, I'm forced to assume that someone has seen something I haven't. And given the way the game has played out, I wouldn't be surprised.
That's all of the nominations at the moment, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the list grow. I have my theory, but I'll keep it to myself for now.
But who else do we need to look at?
Zapaterietxe keeps making math errors, coding mistakes (catching hosts in UBB code screwups makes my week, btw!), and has gotten a couple scenarios backwards. This doesn't seem to me to be suspicious behavior, because I'm innocent and I've made coding mistakes, math errors, and have completely misread several people. It just means he's not as god-like as we want him to be. If he's guilty or the sympathizer, then he's working a very careful game of cat and mouse, and what I said about Eliabulon sacrificing Reppik the first day applies here as well. If either Otto or Choey -- scratch that, if his next nomination -- goes over and is guilty, I'd say that pretty well clears him once and for all, because he's not foolish enough to think he can win on his own.
Ios has been very reasonable and helpful, and while I don't know her well, I don't think she would have suddenly started talking if she were guilty. She was flying along under the radar just fine; why mess with a good thing?
Ja'ayem hasn't said much recently. He was helpful at first, but a couple people are casting a suspicious eye on him. I don't think he looks as guilty as some of the others, though.
Joostein is the one who, if he is guilty, would be smart enough to have twigged on both Crimson and Celandine. Well, I'm still not convinced she said anything to out herself, so I don't know how the heck they figured it out. Joostein has been itching to see Eliabulon off the bus since the very first day.
I've almost decided that we can't trust the "the" that Celandine was yelling as she was stuffed out the door. I don't know, but I don't think she was able to investigate anyone, since she was a little busy being killed. On top of that, I have had time to realize she could be talking about "the feather boa constrictor", "the Grafinn", "the one who cannot speak", "the Norwegian", or a host of others. It's not enough upon which to base a lynching.
Dafyd can you tell us if she did investigate someone and get an answer? A simple yes or no will suffice.
So, to wrap it up and put a bow on it. In no particular order, I'm suspicious of Otto, Choey, and Joostein. Since we no longer have a detective, I guess we'll have to do this the old fashioned way.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
Dafyd can you tell us if she did investigate someone and get an answer? A simple yes or no will suffice.
No, I am not going to tell you that. No communications regarding the detective's activities post-mortem allowed.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
[Cross-posted with Hophtrig, John The Less and tour manager Dafyd.]
Has anyone got a fork? I've been trying to review the transcripts, but I'm starting to feel like I'd rather gouge my eyes out. (No, Joostein, thank you, but I don't think the Bloont Objectimoom will work. Unless you'd like to just whack me oover the head with it and poot me ooot oof my misery?) I can't cope with all this uncertainty, and my own inability to figure anything out.
At various times during the last day on the bus, I have thought that Hophtrig, Otto, and Choey were hinting at being the Detective. Obviously I was wrong. And Lady Celandine was never on my radar.
For those who suspected Reppik, for some of them his words and style of (or lack of) reasoning was a blazing "I'm guilty" sign. They weren't for me, or at least, I wouldn't have noticed them without having them pointed out; I was mostly going on trusting other people's analysis.
I can think of a few curious things about the Grafinn's words, but are they just will o'the wisps (is that how you spell it? I've never written that words before!), or are they real? I'll list them later; too discouraged right now to put the effort into a careful point and counterpoint.
I sometimes suspect Joostein, based on the conflict between Joostein and the Grafinn. More on that later too.
Don't anyone go suspecting them right off the bat just because I wonder about them. I'm just laying out how confused all this is for me. I'm back to having no trust in logic to solve our way out of this, or at least no trust in my ability to contribute to that logic. But I continue to blather, partly because I can't resist the siren call of logic, and partly because I do think that some people can use our more words to detect things.
I have taken bus tours with people who looked phenomenally innocent, who came up with the most innocent-sounding things which lead you to think, "no way could a Possessed be so innocent sounding." And then they turn out to be bad, bad, bad to the bone. Codine, I'm looking at you. (Another one who has done this IIRC is Sioni Sais, but none of his descendants, relatives, or hangers-on are here on Dimthing.)
It's interesting to me that people think I'm devious and subtle and hard to pin down. Here I am, innocent, and people still think that I'm hard to read. Yet others through their lengthy reasoning have convinced people they're innocent. I wonder what the difference is. Is it perhaps because I am so circumspect in my conclusions? I always see "some of this, some of that." This is not to cast doubt on any of those who are thought to be innocent. If I were Possessed, I'd be thinking "ha ha, you are right I am devious, how perceptive of you". But being innocent and having the exact same thing thought of me, feels very odd. Is it possible to have a naturally devious demeanor? A demeanor at least in words -- in person Ios' great great great great great aunt Autenrieth Road was said to have had the exact opposite of a poker face, and Ios expected that she, Ios, had inherited that.
[ 17. March 2014, 16:27: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Come here, Ios, have a big Hophtrig hug.
Let's start a club, we'll call it the confused club. Hophtrig is silly, but Hophtrig would be extremely glad to have one so clever as Ios join Hophtrig in saying that, despite all the thinking and guesswork, on this bus it all comes back to what a clever man called Descartes said, "I think therefore I am" and that's about all Hophtrig knows.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
One thing Eliabulon has done differently from her relatives, forebears, and antecedents is that usually on the first day they say they're laying everything they think out in full detail so we can use it in case they're killed the first night. The Grafinn has not said this. Guilty oversight? Or just normal variation in expression?
Also, I believe the Eliabulon clan normally do not introduce themselves in detail on bus tours until after the tour manager has handed out roles. That way, the Eliabulons have said, they can shape their introduced persona to go better with carrying out their role. What better cover for being dictatorial and trying to direct the outcome of voting as a Possessed, than to introduce oneself as a naturally dictatorial and directive Grafinn?
On the other hand, if the Grafinn is Possessed, she is playing a game of about quintuple bluff. Which I can well imagine the Grafinn daring.
I don't know if I really suspect the Grafinn or not, apart from suspecting everyone on principle except for apparently John who we think was cleared by the Detective.
[cross posted with Hophtrig's hug. Thank you Hophtrig, maybe I won't need to gouge my eyes out with a fork after all.]
[ 17. March 2014, 16:42: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
Dafyd can you tell us if she did investigate someone and get an answer? A simple yes or no will suffice.
No, I am not going to tell you that. No communications regarding the detective's activities post-mortem allowed.
I think that answers my question. Thank you.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Being innocent and having the exact same thing thought of me, feels very odd. Is it possible to have a naturally devious demeanor? A demeanor at least in words -- in person Ios' great great great great great aunt Autenrieth Road was said to have had the exact opposite of a poker face, and Ios expected that she, Ios, had inherited that.
I know what you mean. It's a good thing we aren't playing this in person; my eyes always give me away. Even when I adopt the "cold refrigerator" look, my eyes give me away.
Want to know the truth? I've felt like I was behind the whole darn time. Others seem to be able to suss out the deepest things from the most obscure statements. I just don't have it. At the same time, in real life my strength is analysis and decision making.
Fortunately, we're still alive. We're leading 11-3 (counting the sympathizer as Possessed). We have a couple good suspicions to go on, and unless I've been completely duped, both of our logical giants are alive and well. I think we have a few clues to go on, and I've been reading back over the previous couple days' worth of conversations. I'm probably not going to out-logic anyone, particularly Eliabulon or Zapaterietxe, but I can report my gut feelings and what I see as inconsistencies.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto flourishes with the FBC, and restates the conclusion the FBC told him. That at the start before the last vote that Hophtrig and Grafinn looked shady to the FBC. And that he is glad that people are talking about this now. As a first time passenger on any bus, he was only brave to nominate before because he is accompanied by the FBC which has rather fabulous intuition, which Otto clearly lacks. At this time, Otto would tend to follow the group's good advice, and listen to the FBC as well, who has concurred with this direction.
And yes, Otto is sorry that he chatters on. Glad for a seatmate though. Enjoys friendship.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Wait, I made another math error. There are 11 alive (me, Codine, Zapaterietxe, Eliabulon, Ios, Otto, Choey, Hophtrig, Joostein, Ja'ayem, and Daisy). Three of those are either possessed or sympathetic. Thus we are ahead 8-3.
If we can lynch one guilty one today, we'll be up 8-2, only one of which can actually hurt us. If we lose an innocent tonight, we'll still be up 7-2. At those odds, we can lynch faster than they can kill, and even if we lynch several innocents I think we can still win.
Let's see if I'm right. 7-2, we lynch an innocent, makes it 6-2. They kill one overnight, 5-2. We lynch another innocent, 4-2. They kill one overnight, 3-2. But surely by then we will have some idea who the guilty one is, so we lynch that one and if we're lucky that leaves us 3-1, and that one is the sympathetic one. Several things would work in our favor, including the doctor averting a kill, the Possessed offing their own sympathetic, or else us getting wise much more quickly than three days from now.
It's a slim chance, and it kind of depends on us hitting the right one today, but I think we can do it.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Here's a thought that makes sense of some things (while raising all sorts of other questions):
Reppik, Hophtrig and Eliabulon as the Possessed. Playing a devious game of Multiple Bluff.
This is can explain Hophtrig's quick nomination of Otto on the second day. This was part of the devious plan for Reppik to be sacrificed. Part of the sacrifice is for Reppik to implicate Otto as much as possible, by declining to protectively go after Otto. It worked very well for the conspirators because an innocent Choey (in this hypothesis) picked up the Otto banner and started defending Otto in the most suspicious way (*). That lures us into wasting today lynching (innocent) Otto.
I think it was Eliabulon who pointed out that sacrificing the Unreadable Possessed was bad strategy for the Possessed. This would be part of the game of Multiple Bluff.
(*) If this is true, then I suspect some sort of genetic relationship between the Bacca Loriettes and the Lovely Lesleys -- they would have both inherited the mutant gene which makes someone innocent as snow behave as if they are guilty as soot.
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
I know everyone's said it but we've had one bit of good luck (Reppik) and three bits of bad luck (Det. Crimson, Det. Lucy, and Lesley). Today we ought to have been winning*
Instead 3 baddies remain in 11, so proportionally things are about the same as we started and we still have our healer.
At some point if they win they will be nearly half the population, which is both good and bad (good as at that point each innocent has a 50% chance of hitting a mafia, bad as they get half the votes). But even as we approach that we can do our best to get lucky.
I had thought Hophtrig might have been the detective (), or possibly Zappa (on the one hand proved right, on the other he couldn't have known).
Now I know I was wrong on both counts.
I've not looked at the transcripts beyond quoted. But it seems we have two questions.
1) What did Lucy tell us. Unless he's missed quoting something I think Graffin's idea about John's innocence is right**. But will have to find what Joosteins's seen.
2) Why did the mafia kill her. If they killed her as the detective they must have seen something (possibly a declaration of innocence, possibly she named one of them as suspicious - if so we might see who).
Of course it could have been a lucky side affect of another plan, perhaps she made too many lucky guesses, perhaps they wanted us to think that.
*or at least forced a fake role call, I'm not sure what the effects are of that.
**notably if Otto was guilty And she knew it, she could have set up the vote to be different. And given the barber was still alive if she'd found a guilty person then at that point would she have stayed quiet? (I know I'd have been tempted to come out and rely on the doctor) [edit no, she might have found the sympathizer which leaves 2 deadly mafia to get]
[preview post shows a cross post]
[edit-and another]
[ 17. March 2014, 17:45: Message edited by: Jay-Emm ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
I've not looked at the transcripts beyond quoted. But it seems we have two questions.
1) What did Lucy tell us. Unless he's missed quoting something I think Graffin's idea about John's innocence is right**. But will have to find what Joosteins's seen.
2) Why did the mafia kill her. If they killed her as the detective they must have seen something (possibly a declaration of innocence, possibly she named one of them as suspicious - if so we might see who).
1) I've re-read everything she said, and yes, she cleared me. She sat down next to me because she thought I looked trustworthy. Then she said that everyone being quiet made them hard to trust. She wasn't that explicit with anyone else.
2) That post that cleared me was also what got her killed, near as I can figure. It was the only one where she said something definitive. She did say she suspected Eliabulon, but that is a very fashionable thing to say. Joostein has been after her since the very beginning, and yet he's still alive. I suspected Eliabulon, Joostein, Celandine, and probably another two or three I'm not remembering at the moment.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
Dafyd can you tell us if she did investigate someone and get an answer? A simple yes or no will suffice.
No, I am not going to tell you that. No communications regarding the detective's activities post-mortem allowed.
I think that answers my question. Thank you.
What does it tell you? It doesn't tell me anything.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Reppik, Hophtrig and Eliabulon as the Possessed. Playing a devious game of Multiple Bluff.
What about Reppik, Hophtrig, and Joostein?
Joostein has been at Eliabulon's throat the whole time, and that seems to be a common thread. Attack Eliab, let him stir stuff up, and hide in the chaos. I like your theory about Hophtrig, Choey, and Otto, and it still fits here. If correct, it means lynching either Otto or Choey would be a mistake.
To add to my speculation, Joostein voted for Otto while waffling about it. I honestly don't get what all the fuss was about, but when casting his vote he gave this speech about why he was voting for Otto:
quote:
So it seems to me to be a choice between maximizing your knowledge of me, by sealing the deal, or maximizing my own knowledge about others by not doing so. I think making this stand, and voting at this point (I could wait for a few hours and leave the call up to others) should speak to my willingness to present information about myself, rather than to hide.
This could be read as a handwave, a plea to look the other direction. He added to it in a quick second post, and then further on, after Reppik was proven guilty. I went back and checked to see if I could figure out what he was talking about, and drew a blank.
There was some sort of something going on between Hophtrig and Joostein in the beginning, and someone pointed out that it looked fishy, like it was a distraction.
Joostein, Eliabulon, eh, doesn't matter. But the more I re-analyze, the less I think Otto and Choey are guilty.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
Dafyd can you tell us if she did investigate someone and get an answer? A simple yes or no will suffice.
No, I am not going to tell you that. No communications regarding the detective's activities post-mortem allowed.
I think that answers my question. Thank you.
What does it tell you? It doesn't tell me anything.
That he's not going to talk about it. And I suspect that there was another investigation, but it got gagged with the killing. But since she can't tell us, it's about the same as not having it.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
[crossposted with all posts since my previous post.]
Joostein and Eliabulon, a.k.a. I have no ability at finding the bad guys...
So here is what I wonder about J and E. Did they know each other, or did they work on their parts of the Old Testament separately?
Wait, wrong J and E. Concentrate, Ios, bus passengers.
J and E suspect each other.
Are they both innocent, and just think very differently?
Is one of them innocent and detecting real logic flaws in the other's arguments, and the other is guilty and responding in kind by pretending to find logic problems?
Are both of them guilty and engaged in an elaborate game of Bluff The Tourists? (In this case, then perhaps Hophtrig is the Sympathiser, nominated quickly to provide cover for the possessed, and then J E and R took advantage of the opportunity to implicate poor innocent Otto, in the midst of their already elaborate game of Multiple Bluff involving sacrificing Reppik?)
I have no idea.
[ 17. March 2014, 18:21: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by me:
Hophtrig is the Sympathiser, nominated quickly to provide cover for the possessed
This might be ambiguous. What I mean is, Hophtrig nominated Otto quickly as an independent initiative to help the Possessed by suspecting and nominating others. I didn't mean to say anything about Hophtrig himself bring nominated.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig was looking back at the footage of what Lucy said on board, in order to create a dramatic montage for his show's Dimthing special. As Lucy addressed Lucy's murderer with the title "the", Hophtrig has been focussing on the beings Lucy had addressed with "the" before.
There are four:
- The Hop-Thing
The velvet-clad servant
The Graffin
The boa-constrictor
The last one is an interesting thought, maybe Otto is good, but his constrictor possessed? Sadly, Hophtrig thinks the constrictor would not agree to go without its master.
As for the Graffin, the erudite analysis and voting patterns lessen Hophtrig's suspicion of her
The velvet clad servant, Codine, Hophtrig will have to think more about.
And as for the Hop Thing, needless to say Hophtrig believes in himself, so trusts him.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
John, I'll think about what you propose. At the moment I'm inclined to vote for Otto just to find out what he's hiding behind the feather boa constrictor (if anything). I think we learn valuable information even if we're mistaken and he's innocent. But I hadn't yet given serious thought to voting for someone else, and the pros and cons of that. So I'll think it over now.
[cross posted again]
[ 17. March 2014, 18:38: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
John, I'll think about what you propose. At the moment I'm inclined to vote for Otto just to find out what he's hiding behind the feather boa constrictor (if anything). I think we learn valuable information even if we're mistaken and he's innocent. But I hadn't yet given serious thought to voting for someone else, and the pros and cons of that. So I'll think it over now.
[cross posted again]
Yeah, worth a think. I'm kind of waiting to hear from the others before making a final decision.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Hophtrig, please could you talk about why you nominated Otto.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Looking closely at the three nominees:
Why do I think Otto is more innocent than guilty? Probably because his actions have been pacificist all along. The Grafinn made the deciding vote between lynching Otto or Reppik Tew, and chose Reppik Tew. Even if they were all mafia, it makes no sense to toss out your unreadable before all the detectives are offed. Hophtrig has led the charge against Otto. Hophtrig also tried to finger Codine, John and Lesley, and we know that John and Lesley are innocent.
Choey had certainly picked up on Lady Celandine's words when she sat next to John that "he appeared trustworthy", and had thought these were the words of an investigator. But it is unwise to reveal good guy roles too early as it gives the mafia firm targets. The mafia want to get rid of the specials most of all. So before you all claim I must be mafia because I had reckoned on Lady Celandine being the detective, a good team player for the innocents will try to protect their fellow good guys as much as possible. This was why I pointed out that Zapatarietxe's saving grace against being murdered was that he obviously was NOT a special. It is a bitter blow that the mafia were so astute. The argument that Zapatarietxe began in the dark was fabulous for the mafia because if the doctor decided to protect either the angel or myself it left Lady Celandine to the mercy of the killers.
The Graffin was someone still on my watch list. I had cleared John, Lady Celandine and Zapatarietxe. I added myself and Otto as inncocent. Those who voted for Otto were to my mind, the most suspicious: Hophtrig, Joostein Kase and Ja'ayem. Those who voted late, after Reppik was decided by the Graffin were somewhat suspect: Ios, Daisy and Codine. That the Graffin had the casting vote puts her on the 'probably safe' list. Joostein Kase has also tried to finger the Grafinn twice, and Joostein is on my most suspicious list. Lady C's words 'don't trust the...' could have meant 'the wrestler' or 'the FBC' or 'the hugger' as much as 'the Grafinn'.
I am well aware that not many of you think as I do and hold it against me. Antipodeans are well known for having their own point of view. This is simply mine. And now, if you'll excuse me, I need the sanitation cubicle rather urgently again. I am glad that John fixed the plumbing, as I ate rather a lot last night....
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Ios, just for you, Hophtrig will try to talk about what makes him suspicious.
Hophtrig is suspicious of Otto, for Hophtrig has known younglings and his behaviour is the same as what would make me think they were up to something.
- Quiet. When working with younglings, never trust the quiet - that is an indication that they do not want to be noticed.
- Deferring to another with whom no-one else can communicate. What Hophtrig would call the "dolly did it" ploy.
- Changing subject quickly. Hophtrig knows, when younglings say the minimum necessary, then change back to themselves or the world round about, they want to stifle deep discussion. One always wonders why.
Hophtrig knows Hophtrig is guilty of the third, too. Hophtrig knows there are others guilty of the first. Hophtrig knows the second is merely a character trait of Otto's, not necessarily grounds for suspicion. But the combination of these makes Hophtrig uneasy about Otto.
But Hophtrig knows, if something is wrong with him it is not Otto's fault (yet Otto would still need to go, were this the case)
[ 17. March 2014, 19:07: Message edited by: Alban ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Thanks, Choey and Hophtrig. You may or may not be pleased to know that I find both of you convincing (which perhaps says as much about Gullible Me as it does either of you. Or perhaps not. And which is no good for me as it still leaves me in a quandary.). Choey, that was a much more sensible and innocent-sounding argument than anything you said before.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Cho Bacca:
Those who voted late, after Reppik was decided by the Graffin were somewhat suspect: Ios, Daisy and Codine.
What is it with my votes that no one can see them clearly for analysis? I voted before the Grafinn, and my understanding was that at the time I voted the Grafinn had not yet quite made up her mind.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Ios, you voted late the first time, but as you found the quick nomination of Otto odd, were highly suspicious of Reppik Tew and then voted for him before the Grafinn cast the decider in the last round, you are now on my 'most likely innocent' list, along with the Grafinn. My list therefore goes:
Most suspect: Hophtrig, Joostein Kase, Ja'ayem
Somewhat suspect: Daisy, Codine
Most likely Innocent: Ios, the Grafinn, Otto, Zapatarietxe
Innocent: John, Choey
And if the Grafinn and the dark angel are on the side of the good guys then I would certainly like to see their lists. As two of those nominated for eviction are on my 'Most Likely Innocent' list, this is very important. In fact, everyone who is innocent needs to calm down and post their own roll call for discussion before we vote. A pattern of thought may emerge that will be helpful.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alban:
Hophtrig is even more suspicious.
Hophtrig knows only one person on board with a title, which a "the" could be applied before. The Graffin.
Hophtrig wants to trust the Graffin, for the Graffin has spoken what sounded a lot like wisdom. But Hophtrig is beginning to wonder. Hophtrig is confused, which makes Hophtrig sad.
Hophtrig is right, of course.
But vat he misses is zat although vun can und vun should use ze title “Grafinn” as a title, vith ze definite article, ze late Lady Celandine conspicuously did not do zis. She used it as if it vere simply my first given name, vith no article. You vill see zat in her first vords to me. I even remarked on zis at ze time.
But she did not stop. She uses “Grafinn” vith no article in ze last clear reference she made to me. I think she says “ze Grafinn” vunce. Ze rest of ze time, start to finish, it is just “Grafinn” from her.
But I do not really focus on zat, because vether or not Lady Celandine meant to refer to me as she died, zere really is no doubt zat she did suspect me. Zat much is obvious.
Ze qvestion, zen, is vether she suspected me because of her investigations. As detective, she had access to vun piece of information zat vas certainly true. If ve know vat zat vas, it is completely certain. But everything else zat ze detective says has no more or less veight zan ze vords of any ozer known innocent. Ve listen to zem, ja, but ve do not treat zis as certain.
Vell, I know zat Celandine did not investigate me, because I know zat I am innocent. How can ze rest of you know zis? Vell, read vat she says on ze last day. Ze first post zat she makes, ven Crimson is dead, refers to a “firm und deliberate” view zat John is trustvorthy, a passing reference to ottom und some doubt about Hophtrig. Zat is all. Nothing about me.
On ze hypothesis zat Celandine had investigated me, und found me guilty, zat, surely, vould have been shaping her thinking? Even if she did not vant to reveal her role, she could have said vat she said about Hophtrig about me instead. But no, she said nothing. Not in ze nominations, not in ze discussions, not in ze vote. Und she voted for Reppic, knowing zat I had said zat he vas my choice as vell. Vould she not have been at least a little vary about zat if I vas guilty und she knew zat?
Zen, ven you add zat ze reference to John vas “firm und deliberate”, und ze first thing she saidd after her vun investigation, und zat John vould have been a very plausible passenger to investigate, ze only thing zat makes sense is zat she had just found him innocent. Zat is ze piece of information zat ve can trust. Ze reast is her speculation. Vorth listening to, as ze speculation of somevun definitely innocent, but not certain.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
One thing Eliabulon has done differently from her relatives, forebears, and antecedents is that usually on the first day they say they're laying everything they think out in full detail so we can use it in case they're killed the first night. The Grafinn has not said this. Guilty oversight? Or just normal variation in expression?
Zis I can explain. Und, vith some bitterness, ze first part of ze explanation is zat I thought zat it vas not so necessary vith two investigators. I made ze rule zat “Ze detective und inspector are forbidden to die”. I thought zat vould be guidance enough. I thought zat vith zem alive, und an 'unkillable' doctor, ve vould have to vork very hard indeed to lose. I did say, you vill recall, zat ve could have all ze information to vin in two nights.
Ze second part of ze explanation is zat ven zere is vun detective, zen zat vun detective has access to all ze results of investigations. Und zey may not realise, if zey make ze mistake of seeing a “not guilty” result as a failure to choose ze right target, zat finding people not guilty is actually a very good vay to vin. So I vould tell zem – vith appropriate variations, 'ven you have so many known innocents, zen declare, as ve have vun'.
But vith two investigators, zis is not so clear, because each vun has only zere only results. Ve might have all ze information, vithout any vun person knowing zat ve do. Und it is complicated in zat at ze start, neither investigation knows vether zeir information is alvays true or alvays false. So it is harder to say, after so many checks, ve can declare. At ze start, ve simply do not know ven zat point vill be.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig thinks that Lucy's first investigation cleared John.
Hophtrig suspects Lucy's second investigation implicated a "The", hence her last words. Hophtrig now has four suspects (Hophtrig included) for this "The" being, based on her previous comments, rather than the mere one he had to begin with - as Hophtrig said earlier.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
And if the Grafinn and the dark angel are on the side of the good guys then I would certainly like to see their lists.
Zis is my list.
Grounds for suspicion:
Otto – ze reason is zat Reppic looked as if he vas shielding Otto. Und Otto has been much more qviet zan I vould expect, despite ze best efforts of many of us to draw out vat he is thinking.
Cho Bacca – I know zat she can appear guilty ven she is not, but Zapaterietxe gives some good reasons to suspect her, und at zis point, ve vould be foolish not look careful at his intuition as he has been right vunce. Also, she did not vote for Reppic – not in itself proof, but I think somevun in zat group is likely guilty.
Joostein – It is hard to be dispassionate here, as he has been accusing me from ze start, but ze reasons seem to me to be bad vuns, und persisted vith. I find it hard to trust him. Also, in ze pool of zose who did not vote for Reppic.
In ze 'pool' of suspects, but no ozer reason:
Ja'ayem – Did not vote for Reppic. Othervise, I have not seen any particular reason to suspect or not.
Too qviet to tell:
Daisy – For zat reason I vould at least vant to consider evicting her, but I think zat zere are better candidated.
Contributing, at level of helpfulness I vould expect:
Codine – Her main contribution yesterday vas to encourage Otto to speak, und she has been thoughtful, if brief, in her observations. She has done nothing suspicious except voting late yesterday.
Ios – Although I confess I vould have been a lot more suspicious of her for supporting Hophtrig's insane plan if Crimson had not demonstrated zat it is possible to be intellegent und innocent und still support it.
Intuition of innocence:
Hophtrig – Did not vote for Reppic. Ze general tone of everything Hophtrig says suggests innocence. It is hard to be too specific, in a brief summary like zis, but zat is how I read it.
Strong grounds to think innocent:
Zapaterietxe – for reasons given. I do not think zat Reppic vas a sacrifice.
Functionally certain of innocence:
John – for reasons given. (Also, for ze vay zat he reacted ven he suspected Celandine vas referring to me being guilty: he did not stop to consider zat if I vas ze vun she had investigated, zen she had not cleared him as I had said she had. I do not think zat a guilty man vould trade ze impression zat ze detective had cleared him for ze chance to frame an innocent.)
Innocent:
Grafinn Ekatarina Eliabulon – Zis I know for certain.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Starbug:
'You,' she gasped. 'I tried to warn the others about you, but they wouldn't...' Her lip trembled and she bit it to regain composure. A De Cooperhoop never showed emotion in front of a being of inferior breeding. Daddy would expect her to make a Good Death. '...they wouldn't listen.'
'Listen to me, all of you! Think about everything I said before! Don't trust the...'
"I tried to warn the others about you, but they wouldn't listen."
About whom did she try to warn us?
Hophtrig and Eliabulon were the two big ones. She didn't really suspect Otto, or so it seems.
Or is this just a scene? She did have a flair for the dramatic when it came to scenes.
I'm thinking that if she did manage to get an answer on her second investigation, it was put under a gag order. And I'm not sure about that. I think that line was a shot in the dark.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
I've had a private request to clarify the rules for all concerned:
The detective is not allowed to divulge anything of relevance from his or her investigations in his or her death scene or otherwise post-mortem.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig thinks Lucy seemed suspicious of, in order of suspicion:
The Graffin,
Hophtrig and
(slightly) The Feather Boa Constrictor.
Hophtrig has a hard time being suspicious of the first of these - who seemed so helpful. The second of these Hophtrig feels less suspicious of still. With the third one, Lucy's suspicions were pretty weak, so it doesn't seem obvious enough for the FBC to be the one Lucy tried to warn her friends about.
Hophtrig is firmly in the Confused club, anyone else care to join? We'll try to find prizes and treats for members, for starters join now and you'll get an exclusive piece of fluff Hophtrig pulled out of the back of his seat!
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
For crying out loud, folks! For Thor and Odin's honour and virginity and for all things holy this side of the Eyjafjallajökyll!
In addition to my last argument, I can now add Celandine's warnings. She specifically said she had pointed someone out - and she's only done that at an important time to the Grafinn.
Note how the Grafinn has not responded to my post or to John's "You're going down" post. This is a Pavian we're talking about, people. Note how she was silent for ten hours, until you folks started to doubt the accusations - then she appears.
Note that it does not need to be Celandine's second investigation, as I have said before, it could well be her first one that she held up on until realizing that after we got a baddie lynched (and after the Grafinn was on his way to win general approval following this), taking one more out would mean almost certain victory with one possessed left and a doctor alive.
Note that Celandine most likely made good use of her abilities; and the Grafinn would be a rather standard first, because of her shit-stirring and logical abilities.
Note that the Grafinn does not on the first day at all comment on the nomination of Reppik until in her vote, in which she graciously bypasses Reppik's awkward defence, instead talking of the silencing and the silence as the only accusation of merit. It was not.
Soon to come: epic self-defence by the Grafinn, but only now, and only because of desperation. Even if you do not know how bad the situation is for her, she does, and she has been going with what little she has to use in her defence - silence and shadows. Make your grandstand or avoid it to shade your doings. But I shall not let go. Look at the evidence, folks. Either I or Eliabulon should leave the bus tonight - and it's Eliabulon who has been pointed out by a detective. Nö talkings, danskjävel - you hävings date with destiny.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto is uncertain what people want to know. The FBC also has no more insight; Otto has the FBC as a companion because he is a nervous person. The FBC is the source of any bravery that Otto von Biggleswarpski has ever had. Which is not so much.
Otto and his FBC thought Hophtrig and Grafinn looked suspicious in the previous round. He felt that they had jumped too quickly to conclusions and were trying to deflect from selves. Only the intuition of himself and his feather boa constrictor to go with, expressed what he is thinking. The FBC finds Hophtrig's folksy manner sweet and pleasant, but wonders about inner decay and venom. And also felt it odd that Hophtrig targetted Otto as an innocent with the FBC adding that Hophtrig has secret knowledge of him as an innocent and would like to sacrifice him and kill the FBC too as a way of saving his own self. Like life, this bus thing is like flying in the dark, and intuition is all us innocents have.
If there are questions for Otto and the FBC, please ask.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
Note how the Grafinn has not responded to my post or to John's "You're going down" post. This is a Pavian we're talking about, people. Note how she was silent for ten hours, until you folks started to doubt the accusations - then she appears.
Zere is zis 'real life virus' zat is particularly active in zose ten hours.
I did not qvote John, but I responded to ze similar point zat he made by qvoting Hophtrig.
Ze response to you – vell, vat vas your point? Zat if I vas guilty I vould try to kill ze investigators? Ja. Of course. You are right.
Who vould not? Only somevun whose head ve had unscrewed und stolen.
Zis is another accusation against me for reasons zat are obviously bad.
quote:
Either I or Eliabulon should leave the bus tonight - and it's Eliabulon who has been pointed out by a detective.
Except zat if I had been investigated by ze detective, Celandine's first thought vould not be to say zat John vas trustvorthy. I agree zat, later zat day, she expressed a suspicion of me. Vell, I do not take very great care to avoid suspicion. I am more concerned to discuss und think. Und I vill encourage accusations und suspicions because zat is how ve learn. It vould vorry me if in doing zat no vun qvestioned my allegience.
You cannot, I think, point to a single argument of mine zat vas designed to mislead, or a conclusion of mine for vich zere vere no facts in support. You cannot find an argument zat I put forvard in bad faith. I have done none of zat. Zis is not to say zat I have alvays been right – I vas suspicious of John at ze start, und I now think it is plain zat ze detective cleared him – but I have never deceived, und I have never argued for a conclusion zat ze facts did not varrant, und zen tried to shut down analysis vith your “no talkings”. Zis, you have done.
I am more suspicious of you zan I am of Otto. I am basing my suspicion of Otto more on vat Reppic did to shield him, zan on vat he said himself. Ze ozer nominees are Hophtrig, who I think is innocent, und me, who I know is. You are arguing from an agenda und not from analysis. I vould rather see you gone zan any of us. I nominate Joostein.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Otto, Hophtrig sees that this is your first time on such a tour, and understands how you must be feeling.
This situation is frightening and confusing for all of us friends. Your Feather Boa Constrictor seems like a wonderful friend for Otto, but none of your friends on the bus can understand the FBC, for it speaks so quietly, and just to Otto. We would love to know what the FBC has been thinking, and why it is thinking that. We can tell that the FBC is not entirely silly, for the FBC voted for Reppik. Hophtrig and his friends would love to know what Otto's Feather Boa Constrictor is thinking, because Hophtrig knows that Hophtrig is a little bit scared your constrictor may be trying to trick us friends.
If Hophtrig asks nicely, pretty please, and gives the feather boa constrictor a hug, could it please tell us why it has been thinking as it has?
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Because Hophtrig showed eagerness to condemn says the FBC. For no reason that was never explained.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
The Feather Boa Costrictor, Hophtrig thinks Hophtrig will call the constrictor Squeezy, wanted Hophtrig gone because Hophtrig wanted it's Otto gone? Hophtrig can understand that as a reason, but Hophtrig believes Squeezy is much cleverer than that. Squeezy wanted Reppik gone, but didn't tell us why, either that or Hophtrig wasn't listening very well, Hophtrig does that sometimes. And then Squeezy wanted Hophtrig gone. Come on, Squeezy, we're all friends here, there must be more to it than revenge?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Well, that is very interesting, Grafinn, because Joostein was one who I wanted to investigate by nominating him next round, but thought if he was nominated this round it would only risk splitting the vote. And I could see my way to voting against either Hophtrig or Otto, though not with much certainty yet. And now here Joostein is, nominated. That changes what I have to think about.
Would anyone like a blanket? John never reclaimed them, and Joostein missed them in his ploonderings, so now I have five: mine, Crimson's, Lovely Lesley's, Lady Celandine's, and Reppik's. If you look carefully at Reppik's you can see the imprint of his antimatter blaster. Grafinn, perhaps you would like that one?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
The reason I didn't mention seeing my way to voting to send the Grafinn after our engine is that try as I might I just don't see these glaring lapses in Pavian logic that Joostein seems to see. And that got me wondering about Joostein. Joostein as Sympathizer? It doesn't cost the Possessed much if their Sympathizer is killed, but if the Sympathizer can mount an aggressive and successful claim about someone who can be expected to be dangerous to the Possessed, that helps the Possessed. So the Sympathizer might choose that as their strategy, even knowing that it might backfire and get themselves killed. I think the Possessed themselves do better with other strategies.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Hophtrig, I don't think Detective Celandine was sending us a death side message of any certain knowledge of the naughty ones. I think that in the panic of impending death, she overlooked that Detectives must be very careful in what they say so as not to send the rest of us on wild goose chases.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
I don't see those glaring problems, either. I have suspected the Grafinn before -- this morning, the first day, at some point in the second day -- but her logic cannot be beaten.
The only one among us who has any hope of out-logicking (yes, I've stooped to verbing nouns) Eliabulon is Zapaterietxe. Whom I expect to see any moment now.
But the Grafinn's nomination of Joostein looks pretty solid to me, and Joostein's stock hasn't been really high with me the whole time. I cleared him initially, but this ongoing thing with the two of them has been throwing flags for me. I thought we were past it, and then here it came again.
Anyway, I don't have to vote yet so I'm going to sit back and watch them duke it out. One of them will make a mistake, I'm sure.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig knows now that Lucy didn't have enough time to say anything about what she had learned that night before she died. Hophtrig understands that he was chasing wild geese when he was replaying Lucy's death over and over, trying to analyse what she said. Lucy's death made Hophtrig very sad.
Hophtrig still remembers Lesley and Reppik's death too, and what happened just before that. And Crimson's death. Can anybody save us?
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Codine got up and stretched. "My thoughts:
Relatively trusted:
John - Cleared by detective
Ios - For reasons I stated earlier
Tentatively trusted:
Hophtrig - I wasn't saying I suspected him earlier, but that I rather trusted him.
Zapa - Seems to be explaining his thoughts logically with a goal of tryign to find the possessed, and more importantly nominated Reppik.
Not actively distrusted:
Eliabulon - I know she's been on people's lists lately, so I'll go into greater depth here. For one thing, if I am going to accuse her of abnormal behavior it won't be being too silent. I don't imagine any incarnation of her going silent to hide guilt! As for Lady Celandine's possible accusation, I don't see why we would assume it's about her. (That and since LC wasn't speaking from special knowledge, I'm not taking her warning more seriously than other things you all did.)
Chooey - She can't be acting on special knowledge, so I think her obsession with Hophtrig is just stubborness. I don't think she'd be so single-minded if she were mafia.
Daisy - This may be a bad reason, but I think she'd be less silent if she were a mobster.
Not trusted:
Otto - I strongly distrusted him earlier, but I think the Otto-Hophtrig thing may have been the mutual suspicion of innocents. However, he does a lot of stirring without trying to solve, a lot of accusing without clear reasons, and that fits my conception of how a possessed person might act.
Joostein - He, on the other hand, is full of loud reasons, which is appreciated, but I am not persuaded of the guilt of almost anyone he is accusing. Either I am missing the wisdom of his arguments or he is putting forth arguments that are louder than they are strong.
Having trouble getting a read on:
Ja'ayem
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey thought about what was being said a lot. If we are to get a result we need to act together during the next round. So far five passengers, for varying reasons, have put Joostein Kase on their 'highly suspicious' lists. If Hophtrig is a sympathizer, then it would be better to try to take out a mafia member. As Joostein Kase is also on my 'most suspected' list, I will happily vote to put an end to his ploonderings and lootings, if that is the consensus of the majority of the other travellers.
If most of you also agree that John is probably innocent, then I can only avow my goodwill by saying I will vote EXACTLY as he directs me to vote. This gives the innocent more power and less likelihood of splitting any votes.
She sat back with a plate of scones and fig jam and wondered if she should offer them about. They were very good.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
John, I am alive because I suspected Eliabulon from day one - I cannot have been a detective and they are, using Eliabulon's classic strategy of winning by majority of cleared ones, aiming for taking out those. No way was Celandine a lucky pick. Think of how they could have picked her out. I would love to hear Eliabulon's explanation for this.
I'll rewind the other reasons:
1. It has to be someone very, very bright. (finding both the detectives)
2. That someone has to be as well-read as anyone else around here. Remember who's been correcting everyone on rules? Apart from me?
3. If so bright, has to be capable of bluffing very well because those we suspect as of present, we suspect for their poor logics, not their strength - there is an innocent-looking evil genius around.
4. Celandine wrote using unusually strong language/clarity and at an extremely unusual time: just after a possessed was voted off and just before the night.
As for Eliabulon as the specific evil leader, here are my points:
1. She does not tell everything. This is not a Pavian's usual tactic when non-possessed.
2. She does not analyse everything, and the things that she "misses" are bits that could gravely affect the game. For example, from day one she has not addressed properly the difference in game odds and outcome when changing from 1 detective to 2.
3. When accused following Celandine's death, there was silence. Nada. Nothing. No interaction with either John's points or mine. That's not Pavian behaviour.
4. Most of Eliabulon's points are well-argued but irrelevant. They do not act for the interest of the group, but tack on to the ongoing patterns and have added little of worth. Re-read the lines "So I vant to hear Otto's defence before I vote." and "So please (Otto), stop making it so tempting not to vote for Reppic." and tell me they are not a possessed pointing people the other way while finding himself compelled (by whom? Conscience or crowd?) to vote for his own - which he only did when it was only one vote between killing, such that taking out an innocent would be unlikely.
If I were to guess for team-mates, I would say Choey and Codeine, based on spin and other things, but that is irrelevant for I am not sure. I think taking out Eliabulon would provide very good insight into their behaviour, if guilty. But that is besides the point of Eliabulon.
Some have claimed that I could be the evil genius, some have claimed that I would be so stupid as to put myself out here with this supposed agenda if I was not. I shall give you this bit of information to prove that I could not be the evil genius, so read this carefully:
I am the doctor.
If I were an evil genius, this would be the mistake that John wants. It will take you less than 10 seconds to have the real doctor make his entrance, and kill me off to check both of our claims. At this point, a cleared innocent is hard currency, and I would be happy to see myself cleared in this manner. Being able to self-protect means that I only have to fear the rest of you. Therefore I say with the foolishness of ten seconds wait for another role-claim as my witness, that I am the doctor, you shall see my innocence and Eliabulon is the crook we're all after.
And I predict a couple of hours of silence from the Pavian.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
A pregnant tension that has been in the air all day eases slightly. A soft, small, voice can be heard, as if nothing more than a faint imagining:
"Well, this has all been very interesting so far; I'm glad I stepped back and hung in the air for a bit. It's nice being used by people making arguments for a change, rather than making them myself. I wouldn't want to interfere with such a delicate state of affairs—oh, don't worry, I'm still watching, still thinking, just letting someone else do the talking, let my flushing yield fruit for the hunters—but to note that, if Joostein is bluffing, medical personnel might want to keep their head(s) low; we might know soon enough whether his accusations have merit, or are meant to distract us. If he's lying, he'll want you to show yourself so that you can be targeted; if he's telling the truth, then physician, heal thyself."
"And now that I think about it, it might be best to be prepared for…all eventualities."
A rather dashing straw porkpie hat materializes from thin air, gently floating onto a waiting silver platter. A knife and fork coalesce on top of it, sparkling in the starlight
[ 18. March 2014, 05:45: Message edited by: Ariston ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Thoor's wounds, cried Ios (mixing up some of the religions of The Very Ancient People Who Came Before Us). Just when one thought it couldn't get any more bizarre.
Dr. Joostein, who did you protect the first two nights, and why?
Gr. Eliabulon, I am having grave doubts. I do not understand your rules about specials who must not die. This is cute, but hardly enforceable. Interestingly, in your answer to me on a point related to this, you didn't quite answer my real question -- why did you not express fear that you might be put to death the first night, or soon? (If fear is not what Pavians feel, please substitute the correct word.) Instead, you answered a question I hadn't asked, and gave me some surprising information.
Here is another oversight, mein liebe fräulein Grafinn (my dear miss Countess). After Crimson was killed, you did not clarify what the correct strategy would be for one detective. Did it just not occur to you? But in the answer you gave to me earlier, you said that the correct strategies for detectives was on your mind.
I am starting to have more sympathy for Dr. Joostein's suspicions.
Let's see, in line with my interest in non-counterfeitable actions, what are some impossible events that we can predict Will.Not.Occur? One would like some limits on how bizarre the situation could become. How about: the representative of Dimthing Tours, Dafyd Of The Intercom Of The Intercom -- I believe it is impossible that he will reveal himself as one of the Possessed. Pirate Hart will not suddenly show up and turn out to have been hiding in the baggage area all along. No secret book will be found in the wall of the temple describing how we should behave, much less revealing that Inspector Crimson and Detective Celandine had secretly investigated everyone and written down their findings for posterity.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Oh Jesus Effing Christ! shouted Ios (that course in The Very Ancient People Who Came Before Us had had a large unit on Phrases That TVAWCBU Considered Rude Vulgar And Taboo. Ios hadn't understood the ancient mindset, but she did find that they acted marvelously to express or relieve shock and dismay.) She had not quite absorbed all that Zapaterietxe had just said when he first said it, and now that she examined his words more closely, she discovered that he was advising the Other, Real Doctor to lay low. (if in fact it was not Dr. Joostein) That was the opposite of what Ios would have asked for. But could it really be Reppik, the Grafinn, and Zapaterietxe possessed together? That was a formidable organization if so, and the layers of Multiple Bluff taking place were many to the many to the many, at least. But this was a group who, if Possessed, she could well imagine daring that Multiple Bluff.
Perhaps she should base her vote on, not entirely on who she thought was guilty (since she was starting to fear she would never be able to make up her mind), but also on whose death, if innocent, would reveal the most information.
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
So one person (Joostein) says they are the Dr and challenges any (hypothetical) other doctor to come out.
Another (Zappa) suggests any other doc lie low.
On the negativie side there are lots of options. On the other hand this is the area where things can be counted clearly
There are 8 innocents and 2/3 baddies.
If Joostein is innocent and a mafia makes a fake role claim and we believe Joos:
We have a simple goodish situation 7-2 (with 2 obvious targets one who can be protected*)
If Joostein is innocent and a mafia makes a fake role claim and we believe the mafia:
The next 2 moves are fixed ending 5-2 (all are normal-not bad for the mafia but a bit risky?)
If Joostein is guilty and the real doctor makes a claim then the situation is reversed. The question is which is more likely (i.e. which do the mafia think we'll think).
If Joostein is innocent (& right about Graffin) then we end 7-2. We still have to find the other mafia. But we have one person who is safe and 'known' to be innocent, that means we will win if he protects himself and we find the sympathizer.
(if we don't believe till too late we end 5-2)
If Joostein is innocent (& wrong about Graffin) then we end 6-3. Things are decidedly bad whatever we do, especially as we'll probably turn on Joostein/Graffin the next round to be 4-3.
If Joostein is guilty (& in a double bluff is right about Graffin) then we end 7-2 (whatever happens) but the other one is then in a good place. It seems very risky, though (it would make more sense if the Symp was a full mafia) especially as at that point there is a real doctor to be suspicious.
If Joostein is guilty (& is trying to lynch a threat) and then if we believe 6-3 but it's likely we'll end 5-2.
More thoughts this pm (after work). There's a number of weak assumptions I've made, I've tried to be consistent but do check.
*actually as he is coming out on the basis Lucy knew something about Graffin then we don't know about John.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
I am the doctor.
[...]
And I predict a couple of hours of silence from the Pavian.
Und you vill get it, at least until ze real doctor, if zere is vun, has spoken or had ze opportunity to speak.
I do not know vether you are telling ze truth. If you are lying somevun does know zis. It makes sense to vait to see if anyvun speaks against you.
If not, zen I must assume zat you are telling ze truth. You vould still be wrong about me, but my response to your wrongness vould clearly not be to vant you evicted in zat case.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Starbug:
One suspects neither Otto or Hophtrig at this stage. However, one does strongly suspect Grafinn, who has been trying to direct the conversation and lay down 'rules' that may or may not be valid (this is one's first trip of this kind, so one is not too sure). Even if the rules are valid, there has been rather too much dictating from Grafinn, which leads one to be very suspicious.
That was speculation, not a detective claim. Joostein is full of it.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
quote:
Originally posted by Starbug:
One suspects neither Otto or Hophtrig at this stage. However, one does strongly suspect Grafinn, who has been trying to direct the conversation and lay down 'rules' that may or may not be valid (this is one's first trip of this kind, so one is not too sure). Even if the rules are valid, there has been rather too much dictating from Grafinn, which leads one to be very suspicious.
That was speculation, not a detective claim. Joostein is full of it.
There's an easy way to find out. We lynch the Grafinn, and if she was innocent, you're entirely cleared along with me, the ship's doctor. Otherwise, what will happen is that you will die tonight and we shall be told that since you were innocent, Eliabulon is unknown. However, at this point, we have to clear as many people as possible, and that means lynching the Grafinn for that purpose - to stay ahead in cleared people. It will also enable me to flip a coin and have a 50/50 chance to save a cleared innocent (you or me). Also, with the Grafinn lynched, all kinds of interesting patterns will appear in the words, votes and interactions. If not doing it for Celandine or for the logical wants apparent in the Grafinn's words, do it to maximize information of cleared innocents.
We need cleared innocents that we can trust and save. Lynching the Grafinn will create this, as will speaking out if you claim to be a doctor. This is the right point to do so, where we still have fresh information from the detective and when striking a false mafia claim will bring them down to one measly possessed - and plenty of tracks to trail.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
...speaking out if you claim to be a doctor.
This is the right point to do so, where we still have fresh information from the detective and when striking a false mafia claim will bring them down to one measly possessed - and plenty of tracks to trail.
Joostein is right zat zis is ze right time for any real doctor to speak.
Because ze doctor can protect zemselves, ze risk to his or her life in speaking is containable - although at ze cost of not protecting ozer innocents. Ze benefit of exposing Joostein (if he is lying - I do not know) und not having a false doctor deceive us is, I think, vell vorth ze cost of revealing ze real doctor.
Joostein is not qvite right zat doing so vould leave only vun Possessed. If ze false claimant (either Joostein himself or anyvun who tries to frame him vith a false claim) is ze sympathiser, zen ve vould still face two Possessed after killing zem. But ze general point, zat making a false claim is costly for ze guilty, is a sound vun.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
If ze false claimant (either Joostein himself or anyvun who tries to frame him vith a false claim) is ze sympathiser, zen ve vould still face two Possessed after killing zem.
I call this sending messages in public.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
(Let this play in the background as you read this.)
I don't know why I feel baited, but I do. I feel trapped. I feel that I've been outwitted by someone just a leeeetle bit smarter than me. Still, sometimes the best way out of a trap is to walk in, guns blazing.
Joostein isn't the doctor. I am.
But I'm not necessarily saying Joostein is a dog who needs lynching. Strange as it may sound, I think Joostein might actually be innocent.
Ah, those fateful four words, the words that can change the whole tide in just a moment! "I am the doctor." Utter those words and everyone takes a breath.
And what is my proof? Thanks for asking! How about I post what I got from Dafyd:
quote:
Dimthing Tours are pleased to inform you that John the Less is innocent. In addition, John has secretly got medical training: (Doctor). When night falls, pm me with the name of one other player whom you wish to protect. If the mafia try to kill that player during the night, their attempt will fail.
You are allowed to protect yourself.
Oh, the time stamp was "Posted 28 February, 2014 05:08 PM" (that's my local time).
And now I need to ask for forgiveness, because I screwed up.
The first day, Crimson subtly hinted that she was a detective. I caught the reference, and was thus going to protect her. However, I was also trying to clear others as best I could, so that I could then a) know who to trust, and b) build a team of innocents so we could win. About that time (in the same conversation), Zapaterietxe appeared to hint that he was a detective, too. I was already pretty sure he was innocent, and this was confirmation. I was then thrown in a quandry. Who should I protect?
I decided that Zapaterietxe was more likely to get killed that night because he was making some big waves. His arguments had cleared him in my eyes, and had caused trouble for Reppik (whom I was convinced was guilty) and for Lesley (who at the time I believed to be guilty). Crimson had said a few things that might get her whacked, but I only could protect one and I had to choose. So I chose Zapaterietxe, and I chose poorly. I've been kicking myself ever since.
Well, I still thought (until I got the news this morning of Celandine's death) that Zapa was the detective. I briefly tried to work out how to ask him in a way he would get and the Possessed wouldn't, but I couldn't come up with anything. But he was still working pretty hard to help the innocents win, and so last night it was a no-brainer for me. Keep Zapa alive, and we win. I had considered that someone else might be the detective, but no one had made any claims that I could see and thus he was the best candidate. Besides, even if I was wrong and he wasn't the detective, he was the second-most important person alive at the moment, closely followed by Eliabulon.
I completely missed the fact that Celandine was the detective. I've read back over her posts, and the only post that I can find that might have tipped off the baddies was the one that cleared me. But I missed it until after she was dead, and thus didn't protect her. It had taken me awhile to clear her, so the fact that she might be the detecive just went over my head.
I've learned a few things from this whole episode. One, I tend to overreact in this game, and I waffle too much. In real life, I'm the opposite. I don't know why that is. Second, I need to be paying much closer attention to what people say (and don't say), especially if I'm the doctor or detecive or something.
I am sorry I allowed both detectives to die. So, so sorry. If I ever find myself in this situation again, I will absolutely not let it happen this way a second time.
So where do we go from here? In situations like these, you never quite know whom to trust. You never quite know if the one who makes so much sense is full of crap or full of innocence. But you have to start somewhere, and you have to start building lines of communication and trust.
I trust Ios. I've grown to like her an awful lot the past few hours.
I trust Zapaterietxe. I've trusted Zapa since the beginning. I still trust Zapa, although I must confess I've had some doubts since his last communication. But I'm choosing to trust Zapa now, because we need to find a core group of innocents around whom we can build a defense. Zapa has worked long and hard to clear innocents and evict Possessed. His instincts are 50/50 at the moment, which isn't bad at all. If he's working a bluff it's so huge that it must come toppling down before long. But I just don't think that's true. I believe he is innocent.
I trust Ja'ayem. I believe that he is innocent and is doing his level best to help.
Strangely enough, I am beginning to trust Choey. It's going to take a bit more work for me to trust you completely, but please understand I'm working on it. I've got to reconcile what Zapaterietxe pointed out about you with my newfound sense that you're innocent. As to your offer to vote as I tell you, I'm going to decline. I don't want that much power. But I do take it as a goodwill peace offering, and I thank you for it.
These are the ones whom I trust.
Joostein is a special case. Understand something, Joostein: I will consider your arguments, and if I choose to go along with you, you damned well better be right. If you are not, I will hunt you down and I will push you off this bus myself. You better the hell be telling the truth. If Eliabulon goes out and is innocent, you're the very next one. Do you hear me? But for now, I'll give you consideration because what you've said makes sense. And Eliabulon has been throwing flags since the beginning for me. I know that's her style, but still. Enough is freaking enough.
There are several whom I want to trust, but just cannot. Codine, Hophtrig, and Daisy, I don't distrust you, but I don't trust you either. If you're innocent, I want you here. I need you. We all need you. If you're Possessed we'll push you out.
And of course there are two whom I just simply cannot trust. Eliabulon and Otto. I don't distrust Otto as much now as I have previously, but note you're not off the naughty list yet. One wrong move, buster, and you're out the door. As for Eliabulon, I've about had it. I feel like you're lying to me and to everyone else. I feel like you're hiding things. I feel like you've been playing a double game. Well, this is the day it ends. This is the day that you either learn to keep your shitstirring to yourself or realize you'll always automatically be my first nomination on day one.
And to all the innocents: Choey said something very profound a little while ago. She said that we don't need to be splitting the vote on this round. I'll take that a step further. We innocents need to agree on someone and vote them off, no matter their protestations and logical arguments. If we work together, we will win. Now, obviously we are unique individuals with unique perspectives and unique ideas of who is guilty. That's what this discussion time is for. If we can build a circle of folks whom we trust, I think we can come together and do the right thing. I'm not going to force this, because I know some of you might object on the grounds that you think it's a bad idea. And that's fine. I'll put it this way: I'm in if you're in. If you're in, we'll hash it out, decide on the best candidate, and vote accordingly.
Together we stand, or divided we fall. What's it going to be, folks?
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
If ze false claimant (either Joostein himself or anyvun who tries to frame him vith a false claim) is ze sympathiser, zen ve vould still face two Possessed after killing zem.
I call this sending messages in public.
Vy? I am correcting your error. It is not in ze interests of any innocent person to make decisions on ze basis of mistakes in analysis. Of course I vill correct zem.
Are you thinking zat I am trying to give instructions to ze sympathiser to claim? Zis is not true.
If I vere guilty, vould I vant ze sympathiser to make a false claim? No. Because ze best I could hope for vould be your death today, my conspirator's death tomorrow as zey are zen exposed, und, since zey intervened to save me, my likely death ze next. Zat is a bad trade for ze Possessed. Ze accusation makes no sense.
Und now I have to make sense of zere being two claimed doctors, vith ze vun who I vould have thought had exposed you, und been cleared himself, thinking zat you are innocent. Vun of you is lying. Vy John should lie, I have no idea. But if he is not lying, vy vould he say you are innocent? Zis I do not promise zat I can explain.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
Dimthing Tours are unable to confirm or deny whether messages purporting to be private communications from Dimthing Tours are genuine or not. Dimthing Tours disclaim all responsibility for any adverse consequences of treating communications issuing from a third party as genuine communications from Dimthing Tours.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alban:
The Feather Boa Costrictor, Hophtrig thinks Hophtrig will call the constrictor Squeezy, wanted Hophtrig gone because Hophtrig wanted it's Otto gone? Hophtrig can understand that as a reason, but Hophtrig believes Squeezy is much cleverer than that. Squeezy wanted Reppik gone, but didn't tell us why, either that or Hophtrig wasn't listening very well, Hophtrig does that sometimes. And then Squeezy wanted Hophtrig gone. Come on, Squeezy, we're all friends here, there must be more to it than revenge?
The FBC finds "Squeezy" to neglect his fabulousity and beauty. Otto wanted Reppik gone because the others showed him that Reppik was guilty. That's it. Hophtrig went after Otto for unknown reasons which seemed guilty and not like a friend. The FBC is merely Otto's adornment and companion, who gives him bravery because Otto is a timid innocent. Otto and the FBC went after Hophtrig for nomination because Hophtrig had no reason to go after Otto except that he was up to no good. And then Otto voted for Reppik.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
Und now I have to make sense of zere being two claimed doctors, vith ze vun who I vould have thought had exposed you, und been cleared himself, thinking zat you are innocent. Vun of you is lying. Vy John should lie, I have no idea. But if he is not lying, vy vould he say you are innocent? Zis I do not promise zat I can explain.
Oh, it's quite simple, Sweetcheeks. I think you're guilty. If it turns out you're not, then fine. We'll lynch Joostein. Either way, the guilty party goes, and with the added bonus of not having to listen to your shitstirring.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
[cross-posted with everything since John The Less made the following statements:]
quote:
Originally posted by John The Less:
Joostein isn't the doctor. I am.
OK. Things just got complicated, but OK.
quote:
Originally posted by John The Less:
But I'm not necessarily saying Joostein is a dog who needs lynching. Strange as it may sound, I think Joostein might actually be innocent.
No. No no no no no no no. This is insane. In-effing-sane. Effing-in-effing-sane-effing. No no no no no no no no. It is beyond bizarre -- do you hear me BEYOND BIZARRE -- for an innocent to falsely claim to be the doctor. BBEEYYOONNDD BBIIZZAARREE.
50-50, it results in two innocents being killed: the real doctor who shows up to make the real claim (if we don't believe him/her/it, and kills it/him/her first), and then the false doctor because it/she/he will appear to be guilty for having made the false claim. So no no no no no no no. No. Nyet. Nein. Non. Ne. (Translation of those last four, since this is an English-speaking Bus: no, no, no, no.)
Since I think it was you who Detective Celandine cleared -- although who knows, in this bizarre universe, I may be completely wrong about this. But how the heck far down am I supposed to question supposed sure things? So I will go for now on the supposition that we have correctly concluded that Detective Celandine tagged you as innocent. Anyway, as I was saying, since I think it was you who Detective Celandine cleared, I think you must be the real doctor. Although it is possible you are a really insane innocent falsely claiming to be the real doctor. But I am just not going to entertain that thought right now. (In a while, when I've recovered enough to rethink this whole thing in the light of: what if black is white, the sun rises in the west, up is down, Dafyd is Possessed and we are all in an episode of the Truman Show, and not only that, I Think Therefore I Don't Exist -- anyway, when I've recovered enough to consider a world in which nothing makes sense -- but hey, in that world, why not decide this randomly? Hey, did anyone bring a dart board on this trip?)
But I digress in my shock and outrage. I am going to conclude that you, John The Less, are innocent (as revealed by Detective Celandine) and also the true doctor (although why should I believe that, since you have also revealed yourself to be an innocent who believes it is reasonable to make a false claim of being the doctor? Well, I suppose because I can't think of any reason why you would make that false claim that would help anything at all. And I can think of lots of reasons why a (guilty) Joostein would make that false claim).
Sorry, I ramble on.
TL,DR: I believe John The Less to be the real doctor, I believe Joostein to be a false doctor, and as of now I plan to vote to send Joostein out the hatch. (Barring any more even MORE INSANE happenings.)
Ios could be heard faintly from under the cover of five blankets where she was quivering in a corner from shock: Holy Effing Crap. Eff Effing Crap. Jesus Effing Christ. What the Eff is Effing going on.
Well, at least the Dimthing Tours advertising was right: I am seeing things that completely astonish me.
[ 18. March 2014, 12:21: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Ios, there is a simple way to see if John is innocent: throw the Grafinn off the bus. She is the only option for what Celandine might have researched and tried to tell us. If the Grafinn is guilty, John is unknown. I do think it would cast both me and John in a rather favourable light, however. That's where your vote should go.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
[cross-posted. Joostein, no, sorry, that is nuts. Nuts Nuts Nuts Nuts Nuts. Not convinced.]
quote:
Originally posted by John The Less:
Oh, it's quite simple, Sweetcheeks. I think you're guilty. If it turns out you're not, then fine. We'll lynch Joostein. Either way, the guilty party goes, and with the added bonus of not having to listen to your shitstirring.
OK, this explains a bit of the insanity. I think the following makes sense:
John is the true doctor, has as his unassailable core belief that that Eliabulon is guilty, therefore comes up with the (insane) conclusion that Joostein is an innocent making a false claim to be a doctor. (Actually, I think John has only concluded that Joostein may be innocent -- but is more willing to believe that Joostein might be innocent and making a bizarre false claim, than to give up his core belief that Eliabulon is guilty and should be voted off first.)
I have as my unassailable core belief that it is beyond insane for an innocent to make a false claim to be a doctor. Therefore I come up with the conclusion that Joostein is guilty. (And who knows, I suppose perhaps Eliabulon is guilty too, but now I don't think so. Anyway, I'm holding on to my core belief that it's insane for innocents to make false claims to be the doctor, and the most reasonable explanation is that Joostein is guilty and should be voted off posthaste.)
[ 18. March 2014, 12:31: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Codine listens to what Ios has to say and nods. "A false doctor seems to be more suspicious than anything else I am curently seeing. I agree that since we know John is cleared, that makes Joostein the probable false doctor. I am guessing he learned from Reppik's attempt to false-claim by not waiting as long. But honestly I find that particular false-claim a little confusing whether he's innocent or possessed. But get it or not, false claiming is suspicious enough that I wager we should focus on lynching him first.
[ 18. March 2014, 12:33: Message edited by: Gwai ]
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Ios, if I can have a guarantee that Eliabulon will be voted off if I turn out to be innocent, from a sufficient number of people to create a majority, than I shall gladly vote for myself in the upcoming vote. I assume that John will buy into this scheme if that is the only way to get you on his side, and that makes two of you.
I suspect that Zapa and Codeine will be the ones most suspicious of my words - I have a hunch as to their allegiances, but will not say more until later on, say half-way through the vote.
That John should role-claim as the doctor is the most unlucky of possible outcomes, but at the same time that guarantees him to be safe and guarantees that we have one confirmed innocent throughout the rest of the game, as long as we vote off the Grafinn to see if it's true. Please heed that call. I'll walk to the gallows myself to prove it.
[x-posted with Gwai]
[ 18. March 2014, 12:36: Message edited by: JFH ]
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
That John should role-claim as the doctor is the most unlucky of possible outcomes, but at the same time that guarantees him to be safe and guarantees that we have one confirmed innocent throughout the rest of the game
How is it "unlucky"? If you are lying, zen it vas surely to be expected. If you are telling ze truth, zen John is lying, und zat is lucky, because ozervise, ve vould have never doubted his innocence.
Are you still claiming to be ze doctor? Or just 'innocent'?
Ze vun comfort I have from zis is zat vichever alleged doctor is guilty, zey vant me dead.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Codine smiled. "If the guiltiest thing about me is that I am suspicious of people who are caught telling falsehoods, then I can only conclude that my innocence is showing through.
Maybe it's my culture. I would ask Lady Celandine to back me up on this if she were still here, alas, but we a very honor-based culture. Plundering we can understand, but pretending to be a doctor? It is not something anyone from Home would do.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
I'm not saying Joostein is innocent. I'm saying I'm willing to entertain the idea.
It's not inconceivable for an innocent to make a false claim, especially if the innocent feels as though he/she/it has nothing to lose. False claimants are almost always considered to be mafia, and with good reason -- most innocents either don't think about doing it, or else fear being lynched. However, in this case Joostein is actually talking some sense.
Here's how I see it playing out. We toss Eliabulon. If she is innocent, we know Joostein lied to us about her guilt and we get him the next day. Fine, you'll see in my analysis of how we could win that we can afford to make two mistakes before we outright lose. At any rate, Joostein knows that we're coming for him if he's lying about Eliabulon.
If Eliabulon is guilty, Joostein has gone a long way toward clearing himself, AND we're down to only one Possessed. Right now, there are two Possessed. They're not going to be sacrificing themselves now. Reppik probably was a sacrifice, but unintended; the bandwagon was already rolling when Eliabulon cast her vote. I submit that she wanted to vote for Otto but decided we would read too much into it. She also might have decided she could play the "why did you vote for Otto" angle to get another innocent lynched.
At any rate, Joostein knows he can't win alone, so if he's guilty he's not going to attack another guilty -- especially not for as long as he has. Remember, the sympathizer only wins if the Possessed win, and in order for the Possessed to win they must outnumber the innocent. But this is a crazy world, and this radiation makes people do crazy things. So what if he is guilty and working against another guilty? Then we'll figure it out pretty quick. With only one Possessed left, we will be able to lynch until we find him.
Either way the cat jumps, we have a solid chance at winning.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Codine shakes his head. "Even if Eliabulon turns out guilty, I won't trust Joostein. This could all a false fight designed to distract us and make us think they're not bad guys. Innocents don't win by staying alive, we win by getting all the possessed. A false claim by an innocent is playing against one's own side--it doesn't make any sense!"
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
That's true, and we can address that.
Heck, if you'd rather go after Joostein today, we can do that. He's already said he would vote for himself. If he goes off and is innocent, we know he was right about Eliabulon. If we lynch Joostein and he turns out to be guilty, we still suspect Eliabulon.
It amounts to the same thing.
But I've had it with Eliabulon. I cannot trust her, and if I ever come across her kind in the future, I won't be trusting them, either.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
[cross-posted with Codine and John.]
Reading the exchanges thinking Joostein is innocent and Eliabulon is guilty, they are confusing.
Reading them thinking Joostein is guilty and Eliabulon is innocent, Joostein's guilt jumps off the page.
John, I believe you're innocent, so I believe you think you're laying out a reasonable path. But I'm going for the clear reading, which is that Joostein is guilty. In any case, if Joostein turns out to be innocent, we can always reconsider whether we want to vote Eliabulon off tomorrow.
[ 18. March 2014, 13:16: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
I'm fine with that.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
[cross-posted again.]
Another way that an innocent falsely claiming to be the doctor gets an innocent killed:
Suppost Joostein is innocent, but falsely claiming to be the doctor.
We had an incredible stroke of luck that it is already cleared John who is making the doctor counterclaim.
Suppose Eliabulon is guilty and we vote Eliabulon off today. If John had not been already cleared by Celandine, then tomorrow we would want to deal with the problem of two claimed doctors, and we would almost surely vote one of them off. Bingo, one dead innocent.
So, no, it is never nice to lie, not even if you're innocent and desperately trying to get the baddies thrown off the bus.
I prefer to avoid lynching any innocents at all, and Joostein as guilty makes the most sense of what has been going on.
[ 18. March 2014, 13:29: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
If the Grafinn is guilty, John is unknown.
Not necessarily. I've already pointed out, and I still believe it to be true, that she was speculating about Eliabulon. I think it was a telegraph on who she planned to investigate, but since we don't know the outcome, we're left guessing.
Since I think Eliabulon is guilty, I think she figured out that Celandine was the detective, was going to investigate her, and was probably going to blow the whistle the next morning. So no, just because Eliabulon is guilty doesn't automatically mean that's who Celandine investigated. Hells bells, why would she wait until after voting was over to say anything?
[ 18. March 2014, 13:32: Message edited by: Barefoot Friar ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Oh, another thing:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
That John should role-claim as the doctor is the most unlucky of possible outcomes...
How is this unlucky?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Unlucky for Joostein because a known innocent doctor means there is less room for shit-stirring and confusion-sowing by the guilty Joostein?
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Codine, I'm choosing to trust you now. I've looked you over and decided you work better as an innocent than Possessed.
Hophtrig, my only pause with you would be if Otto turns out to be innocent. But until then, I'm going to assume you're innocent.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
Oh, another thing:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
That John should role-claim as the doctor is the most unlucky of possible outcomes...
How is this unlucky?
I suppose I should clear out my gambit right about now.
To begin with, one innocent life lost for many saved is a cheap price, even if it happens to be my own. I don't know if you've noticed that I'm literally offering to go first if I'm followed by Eliabulon. Eliabulon is welcome to take me up on that offer - it is in the interest of the team of innocents.
The best of circumstances would be three claimed doctors. Then we would be able to kill all of them off, including and possibly starting with me. I had planned to offer to go first. Out of these three, one would be guilty and one would be the real deal. Either way we would have found much more to work on. I was not counting with the sympathiser at this point, which was a slight flaw, but it was a lot to keep in one mind. I think we should be able to spot the real doctor: it's the one who isn't Codeine, Zapa or Eliabulon. I was hoping mostly for Eliabulon, due to our epic duel.
If John had not been the doctor, killing Eliabulon and finding an innocent would most likely clear all doubts regarding John's innocence. Combined with the doctors, we should have had two cleared innocents which would lead to a very beneficial situation facing the end game. From there on, it would be a long slug, but in the end, Zapa would be found out. Or whoever frames Zapa so well.
Had I been the only one declaring, because the real doctor had understood the madness of my declaring at that point if guilty, I could've lived with that. Eliabulon would go, I'd be right and get killed in the night with the real doctor living on.
Either way, it was unlucky that John was the doctor because if he was not, we would have twice as many cleared innocents by now. We would be going on three if I was to be believed not to be faking all of this - but I realize with all the bluffs going on that would be a bit much.
Thing is this: the possessed could not know whether I was real or not. Only one person did: the doctor. Thus a counter-claim could be possible, or I could ge some street-cred. If only one real doctor appeared, I could sacrifice myself to give them credibility. It all depends on the sacrifice, which was blown when John turned out to be both so convincing, and already cleared. But seriously, look at this and tell me that woman is not urging someone to step forth. She has seen the possibilities and are acting upon them.
I don't care if I am next or Eliabulon - all Iry to let it slide away - again.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
If the Grafinn is guilty, John is unknown.
(...) Hells bells, why would she wait until after voting was over to say anything?
Ever since finding out Celandine was the detective, I have pointed out the oddities of that post of hers:
1. The timing - just after a vote (that kicked out a possessed thus bringing their number down to 2), just before the night (when she could be murdered).
2. The extreme language, for someone hiding her identity as a detective. "Strongly suspect" is a grave phrase to use when you possess such skills.
3. Not just extreme language, but accusing someone who was at that time largely out of focus. Even I had given up on accusing Eliabulon at that point.
All of this and the fact that somehow the possessed spotted her. There had been plenty of nudges and hugs up to that point. Something about her must have stood out. She must have cared particularly about something at that very point to add that post there.
I believe that the timing was picked because conditions had changed. What things had changed that related to her role?
1. The possessed had been decimated by 1/3.
2. Eliabulon, the person she "strongly suspected", was no longer in the crosshairs of anyone.
Following this, I believe she put that post there "just in case" with some fluff around the essential part to still be able to hide somewhat. Valuing her life to be on par with taking out all of the possessed but one - just as me. Especially taking out Eliabulon. Like me.
Celandine hid from almost all of us, including yourself, John. She was clever enough to do so, so her strangest post must have a reason. To me, Eliabulon's guilt is all that fits the view. Together with the many other irregularities, I see it as a cheap price to pay to lose the shit-stirrer to find out that Celandine's post was irrelevant and thus that you are cleared as the doctor - free from future claims by sympathisers or others.
Dafyd, when does the voting open? I should like to know when to get up to vote for myself.
And yes, everyone, if we kill Eliabulon it would be wise to kill me tomorrow, regardless of the outcome. I have no hesitations regarding that fact.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Thank you.
As I see it, we have two courses of action: Either you or Eliabulon. One of the two of you is lying. My money is on Eliabulon for the moment, but I understand the others' reservations about you, and to be honest they make sense. You see the situation I'm in?
I confess I don't quite follow your logic. I understand it all right, I just don't really think I agree with it. But that's okay; I rarely have everyone agreeing with me on everything, either.
Okay, scenarios.
If we choose to lynch Joostein today:
1. Joostein is lynched, and he is innocent. In this case, we know he was probably right about Eliabulon (although we don't like him lying about being the doctor), and thus we go after her tomorrow.
a. If Eliabulon proves to be guilty, our next look would most likely be at Otto, or possibly Zapaterietxe. Zapaterietxe would be suspected because he has defended Eliabulon, and Otto is suspect because of the way the vote played out on the first day and his general suspiciousness. In this situation I'd pick Zapaterietxe to be the sympathizer, although it would be a hard call (what with the prosecution of Reppik going in Zapa's favor). At any rate, I'd go after Otto first.
b. If Eliabulon proves to be innocent, then we've got bigger problems on our hands and have been played something awful.
c. If Eliabulon proves to be the sympathetic, we treat it like situation a. and move on to Otto. But then we know that someone else is involved, someone like Zapaterietxe.
2. Joostein is lynched, and he is guilty. Eliabulon is likely cleared. The next look would most likely still be Otto, although I would entertain a good case for someone else.
3. Joostein is lynched, and he is sympathetic. We can cross this bridge when we get to it, but it would amount to figuring out who he's covering for.
If we choose to lynch Eliabulon today:
1. Eliabulon is lynched, and she is innocent. In this case, we know she was probably right about Joostein, and thus we go after him tomorrow.
a. If Joostein proves to be guilty, our next look is kind of fuzzy. Otto seems the next-most suspicious type.
b. If Joostein proves to be innocent, we've got trouble.
c. If Joostein proves to be the sympathetic, then we can start figuring out who he might have been defending. We'll have to cross that bridge when it comes.
2. Eliabulon is lynched, and she is guilty. We know Joostein was right (although we don't like him lying about being the doctor). Otto is implicated through the voting patterns, and is thus we go after him next.
3. Eliabulon is lynched, and she is the sympathetic. It doesn't look so good for Otto and Zapaterietxe here.
Yeah, they're pretty well the same net effect. Otto doesn't look pretty in any of them, unless Joostein is the sympathetic. And even then he still would be closely examined.
My money is still on Eliabulon, but I'm willing to go with the group for the good of the innocents. Joostein has graciously offered to go first, and I'm tempted to let him -- if for no other reason than to be on the same side as Ios and Codine. I really do think voting as a bloc of beings who trust one another is the best course of action at the moment. Still, my gut feeling is that Eliabulon is the one we want.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
Codine, I'm choosing to trust you now. I've looked you over and decided you work better as an innocent than Possessed.
If assuming Eliabulon's guilt, as we have been known to do, Codine is a decent sympathiser. Back on page 4-5 Codine took some flak away from the Grafinn in some of her posts (as did Zapa), which I noted then. Also note my prediction of her behaviour just now in a post that was cross-posted and arrived two minutes after hers.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Hold your horses there, cowboy. We're going to work this out before people start wasting votes. We're going to discuss it and agree together. I promise to go with the group of known innocents, no matter the outcome or decision.
Which means I need you innocents to be telling me who you think is stinkier: Eliabulon or Joostein. I also would like to encourage you to think about my idea of working together and not splitting the vote. No one is being forced to do anything; these are requests, not demands. Still I think it's the best option we've got.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Do we have to pick just one or the other as untrustworthy? My general assumption is to distrust everyone! Currently I distrust Joostein more because he's been caught in a lie.
I'm not persuaded by Joostein's arguments about Eliabulon, but he (Eliabulon) tells us what to think, so I don't want to say I trust him either. I think I trusted him a little more yesterday because I was swayed toward him by not being persuaded by Joostein. In the clear light of morning, I'd say rather that I don't trust him, but he's not my primary concern right now. (I would say the same of Otto, for instance.)
And I highly approve of working together and talking it through first. It can't possibly hurt, I think. At the very worst case scenario, that we can't agree on anything and still waste votes, it gives us more material to analyze!
[ 18. March 2014, 15:29: Message edited by: Gwai ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Gwai:
Do we have to pick one or the other as untrustworthy?
No, you have to pick one you trust least. They may both be lice; we won't know until one goes out the airlock. But we have to start somewhere, and I'm determined to find the truth behind these two clowns.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Crosspost edited, but hopefully the rest of the post does what you are asking for.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
If Celandine had already found out that if Eliabulon were guilty on night one, why didn't she nominate her immediately when Crimson was discovered dead and Celandine could be sure which way her knowledge went? Why didn't she declare as the lone detective and ask for the doctor's protection? Why did she say something that so easily would look like declaring John to be innocent when we came to interpret her writings after her death?
I am either surrounded by insanity or stupidity, I don't know which.
Joostein, assuming for a moment your claim that you are innocent, what if you are wrong about Eliabulon? If we put Eliabulon out the hatch today, and discover she is innocent, then out you go tomorrow, because you will look obviously guilty. Two innocents dead and nothing gained.
Some people think me devious, but I would never have thought to aim for three declared doctors as in some way helping the innocents. I don't know if this means I am stupid in not seeing this as a logical possibility (and believe me, in thinking about possible Multiple Bluffs, I thought I was thinking about every possibility), or if it means that I am not certifiably insane.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
I've read games (on other sites) where everyone mass-claimed a role, so that no one knew which one was the real one. The bit I missed was exactly why it was helpful.
The three doctors thing sounds better on the BBC than in our situation. And even then, it was the same Doctor, just from different times in his life.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
The key for my insanity is in the numbers. If we take out one guilty, then we win. (Not counting the sympathizer, but yeah, you'll get Codine in time. Or Zapa before that.) John will always be cleared, now that he's stepped out, and we have the majority vote defending him. The only thing stopping us once we've taken out one possessed more is time. So, I thought I'd go clear- and possessed-hunting.
Ios, when I am proven innocent in death, don't you dare not take out Eliabulon. This is the point of victory. They will stick to confusion, whereas we need division with some clear people. My sacrifice was bound to give us just that. It has.
And as for my guilt jumping off the page - ask yourself if I'd be so stupid. What would I be hiding? What kind of outlandish plan could hold this together? You can clear out Eliabulon today, find out whether to take me out tomorrow, or do the reverse. Note how her arguments and verbosity have fallen to scraps since she was charged following Celandine's death, however. Heck, note everything. I can't outwit her, but I can outlune her and I can afford to sacrifice myself for my team's victory. Ask yourself why she isn't making the same offer. Anyone should if I'm obviously guilty to them.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
"La la la la la." It wasn't working. No matter how much she stuck her fingers in her ears and tried to drown out the insidious speech, Joostein's words seeped through, into her mind where they couldn't be ignored, and everything had to be reconsidered again.
Despite her expectations, things had indeed gotten more bizarre than her last post.
"Here, Joostein, take these four blankets you missed in your ploonderings. Take mine too. I'm obviously too much of a naive trusting simpleton to deserve any blankets. Don't mind me, I'm just retreating into this empty Hophtrig cage that Zapaterietxe made back in those innocent halcyon days before this bus went insane. I'm taking some nice light reading with me to rest my mind from these logical conundrums. Ah, here's the thing: Aquinas' Summa Theologica. Maybe I'll play a bit of Real Lyfe while I'm in here. Oh look, here's the next challenge: install software from a network drive, on a machine with no network connections. Piece of cake compared to working out What.The.Eff to believe on the bus right now.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
If Celandine had already found out that if Eliabulon were guilty on night one, why didn't she nominate her immediately when Crimson was discovered dead and Celandine could be sure which way her knowledge went? Why didn't she declare as the lone detective and ask for the doctor's protection? Why did she say something that so easily would look like declaring John to be innocent when we came to interpret her writings after her death?
Because that would lead to her being taken out. The doctor would also be found out. After the first night only one detective remained which meant going for way longer to find the possessed, also containing an unreadable one. The doctor could not be trusted to protect her for long. The conditions had changed. As for John, I think it was in part going with the crowd at the time, but I am not sure. Hence why we should make sure by executing fleshy spare parts, such as Eliabulon.
quote:
I am either surrounded by insanity or stupidity, I don't know which.
The possessed are led by an evil genius or two. Neither would allow me to act stupidly if guilty.
quote:
Joostein, assuming for a moment your claim that you are innocent, what if you are wrong about Eliabulon? If we put Eliabulon out the hatch today, and discover she is innocent, then out you go tomorrow, because you will look obviously guilty. Two innocents dead and nothing gained.
To begin with, I'm not. I've never been this certain and I have never before acted this insanely. But when it comes to getting Eliabulon, one literally has to burn one's house down to get there (and I'm offering to stay inside while doing so). Besides, Eliabulon has if innocent had plenty of output that could be rummaged for interactions. People should look at how my comments were taken up by various people or dismissed - Hi, Codine!
Actually, come to think of it, if we're both innocent then it can only be Zapa who's the evil boss, and you will know to go for him. And you can be 100 % that Joostein is innocent and cleared.
But both Eliabulon and I are not wrong, and this is why this moment is so intense. That is why it was locked down until lunacy put it to eleven. For what may matter the most, Eliabulon also does not think that we are both innocent, and has never expressed that view. I have asked a bunch of questions of her over the last hours that have not been answered.
quote:
Some people think me devious, but I would never have thought to aim for three declared doctors as in some way helping the innocents. I don't know if this means I am stupid in not seeing this as a logical possibility (and believe me, in thinking about possible Multiple Bluffs, I thought I was thinking about every possibility), or if it means that I am not certifiably insane.
The game was getting locked down in clouds, with no way to find out anything about anyone and with everyone fearing death and being singled out. Some people (Zapa, Eliabulon and Codine) drove that on with wild accusations, but with rather little foundations. Most of all, a couple of doctors would give us something better to work with than influenced votes based on influenced discussions, something substantial.
And it all depends upon the fact that I must have been prepared to sacrifice myself to make sure I was not the real doctor - which I will prove to you by stepping up to the gallows myself. But pretty please with sugar on the top, write a note underneath Eliabulon's picture: Don't believe her lies. And once you know I'm innocent, read through all those arguments I made. They're quite decent in my view. Enough to make me more convinced than ever than Eliabulon is the evil leader, joined by Zapa as henchman and Codine as sympathizer. I could be wrong on Zapa or Codine, but I do not think I am wrong on both at the same time and I do not think that I am wrong in either.
Or you could let me live and see how many days the possessed let me live - I'm here for you to watch. But until Eliabulon has six guaranteed votes, before the voting process begins, I lean very strongly towards voting for myself to give you more to work on. Just don't let them call me too insane to be reasoned out in hindsight. I predict that that will be their defense.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
It's a mess, Ios, I agree. But I think the first step is easy: It's obvious either Joostein or Eliabulon is up to no good. I think we agree on that.
The second step is also easy: I don't trust either one at the moment. But who do I trust least? I'd say Eliabulon, but really it doesn't matter to me.
The third step is where it starts getting tricky. Once we all have agreed which one of the two we're going to evict, we have to vote together to evict that person. I feel like we should discuss and hash, but eventually we'll need to decide, and I think we should all go together instead of splitting the vote.
To help things along, I promise to vote with the known innocents, even if it isn't for the one I thought was most evil. I can promise this because I know that if we get one and s/he is innocent, the other must be the bad guy, and vice-versa.
Then the fourth step is to take what we've learned from our lynching and move to the next person.
So. You trust Joostein least? Codine does, too. Do you think if several others (whom you personally presume to be innocent) decide that they think Eliabulon is the bigger threat, could you in good conscience go along with that? If not, that's okay. Just please do me the favor of saying so, so I can figure out how best to proceed.
Is that reasonable enough?
[ 18. March 2014, 16:16: Message edited by: Barefoot Friar ]
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
I should probably just state this: point to two characters on the bus more likely to be in different teams or both in the bad team, and we'll vote both of them off in the upcoming two days. I don't think you'll find it. Both me and Eliabulon agree.
Until you do, I'll go with that I'm right and therefore vote myself off to show my commitment to my innocence. Enjoy your reading!
[x-posted with Barefoot Friar]
[ 18. March 2014, 16:22: Message edited by: JFH ]
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
Voting opens at 8pm Wednesday and closes 8pm Friday. As before.
Voting opens at 8pm Wednesday and closes 8pm Friday. As before.
If there is a consensus urging me to hurry things along I may bring the schedule forward.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Not quite yet. I want to get a couple more things organized.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
John, a big issue here. My side thinks Eliabulon's side has stuffed your list of innocents, as presented in your doctoral claim post.
If you look at Zapa's post just after my doctor claim, it was a very misinformed such, as Ios pointed out. I did also correctly predict Codine's negative reaction to my claim. I want these people to be considered on par with Choey or Hophtrig, as they would be my immediate suspicions if Eliabulon turns out to be guilty. There's a whole lot of patterns going on that way, that I'll write out later.
I fear otherwise that with Codine, Zapa, Choey and Ios as the "cleared" you will have an even number of baddies among your innocents. I say take in all the votes to eliminate the insecurity and minimize baddie influence. There's more to gain from that than to lose, as the above listed as uncertain, i.e. Jay-Emm, Hophtrig, Otto and Daisy cannot all be baddies.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
No, no, please do not bring it forwards, if that means "make it start earlier" (not sure if we have a pond language divide on this). AFAICT it's only 1 hour and 20 minutes until voting begins anyway, and I need to both finish rewriting the Summa to correct Aquinas's many mistakes, and, incomparably harder, figure out which way to jump with my vote.
(Cross-posted; that was to Dafyd. that was to Dafyd.)
[ 18. March 2014, 16:41: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
John, a big issue here. My side thinks Eliabulon's side has stuffed your list of innocents, as presented in your doctoral claim post.
If you look at Zapa's post just after my doctor claim, it was a very misinformed such, as Ios pointed out. I did also correctly predict Codine's negative reaction to my claim. I want these people to be considered on par with Choey or Hophtrig, as they would be my immediate suspicions if Eliabulon turns out to be guilty. There's a whole lot of patterns going on that way, that I'll write out later.
I fear otherwise that with Codine, Zapa, Choey and Ios as the "cleared" you will have an even number of baddies among your innocents. I say take in all the votes to eliminate the insecurity and minimize baddie influence. There's more to gain from that than to lose, as the above listed as uncertain, i.e. Jay-Emm, Hophtrig, Otto and Daisy cannot all be baddies.
I get what you're saying about Zapa. It pains me to say this, but if Eliabulon is guilty, it looks really, really bad for Zapaterietxe. It looks bad that he's been silent all this time. It will look worse if he shows up to defend Eliabulon. I've lost confidence in him as the day has worn on, and now I'm not sure about him at all. I regret protecting him the past two nights, especially if he turns out to be Possessed.
I realize you have reservations about Codine, and I understand that. Allies are a good thing at the moment, and I'm trying to figure this out as I go along. I want to put this on the back burner for now, because you've succeeded in convincing me that Eliabulon is the evil one here. Codine will be looked at later.
For the time being, however, we need to focus: Eliabulon, or you. I want Eliabulon so bad I can taste it. I don't care who else votes for her, so long as she goes. We can take care of the rest tomorrow, with the info we get today. Besides, it doesn't matter if we actually find the sympathetic or not; as long as we get the active Possessed we win. The only real reason why we'd want to identify the sympathetic is to figure out who s/he is covering for.
Choey, Hophtrig, Ios, Ja'ayem: Will you please join me in voting for Eliabulon, even if it looks like I'm utterly insane? Will you please trust me this one time?
I'll join Joostein in his offer: If we lynch Eliabulon and she is innocent, I will put myself up for eviction the next day. I swear by Grabthar's Hammer.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
No, no, please do not bring it forwards, if that means "make it start earlier" (not sure if we have a pond language divide on this). AFAICT it's only 1 hour and 20 minutes until voting begins anyway, and I need to both finish rewriting the Summa to correct Aquinas's many mistakes, and, incomparably harder, figure out which way to jump with my vote.
(Cross-posted; that was to Dafyd. that was to Dafyd.)
8PM London time. Not sure your time zone, but I'm at UTC-4, and I make it to be slightly over 12 hours.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto asks if anyone cares what he and the FBC does?
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
AFAICT it's only 1 hour and 20 minutes until voting begins anyway
25 hours and 20 minutes.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by no prophet:
Otto asks if anyone cares what he and the FBC does?
I care.
Would you join us? I assume you've been following. Would you be willing to vote to lynch Eliabulon? Even if she and Zapaterietxe come along and unleash all their mighty logic on us?
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by no prophet:
Otto asks if anyone cares what he and the FBC does?
Feeling lonely?
Sorry for stealing all your limelight, Otto, however, I'm pretty sure it's not your doings as much as your opinion on whether I'm more of an evil stupid genius or a good genius lunatic - i.e. who's more likely to be evil, me or Eliabulon. Don't buy into that we're both good, that's what they would have you believe because that's the only way they can keep their numbers up. They would love it if everyone was good so that they could hide better.
Of course, it would seem most wouldn't listen to you, but you along with the rest have a vote. Use it wisely - use it for me or Eliabulon.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
AFAICT it's only 1 hour and 20 minutes until voting begins anyway
25 hours and 20 minutes.
Ah, right, thank you. I thought today was Wednesday already. I'm on the East Coast of the US. I still would not like to see voting moved earlier. Let's give this enough time for us all to reflect.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig is very much in favour of working together. That was Hophtrig's plan from the beginning. Hophtrig's plan, which Eliabulon dismissed as insane was, if we all work together and agree, all of us friends could learn something important. Hophtrig thinks John is very clever thinking of that.
Hophtrig distrusts the proven liar, like so many of his friends do. But Hophtrig will join a consensus, if one is reached.
For now, Ios, may I join you in the old Hophtrig hold, we could call it our confused clubhouse. You can have all the hugs you want, while Hophtrig tries something easy (compared to understanding this bus) like finding the question to 42
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
quote:
Join a group though it seems odd
I'll think about it but at the moment really doesn't seem right.
If you are detective cleared, then we don't have any reason to KNOW Graffin's guilt:
If all three of you are innocent then by the time we get things sorted we're dead.
If Graffin is guilty, then we still don't know his accomplices. It could be those that (tried to) save him, it could be Joostein. That's still a better position than before, so if I have sufficient (say 75%?) confidence this is the case I'll go ahead. But while I still need to consider the other possibilities...
The third option is that Joostein is framing Graffin. This isn't too bad...perhaps he hoped to get away with it (for a turn), as at least we get revenge...but it does buy the mafia time...we only just have.
If it is Graffin who is detective guilted, then we don't know about John:
In this case we have the last two options.
But we also have John trying to get Joostein lynched when Graffin is found to be innocent (in this scenario). This is really bad for us as we lose 4 innocents including the Dr. Even after we get revenge that leaves us at 3 Innocents, 2 mafia. (if we react to compensate the Joostein mafia case becomes as bad)
And John trying to create confusion to protect a guilty Graffin.
So, I'll be glad of the extra 24 hours to think this through.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
You have to hand it to Joostein: He got our attention. And he's marked himself for death, either in lynching or by the Possessed. I don't take that lightly.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
I'll think about it but at the moment really doesn't seem right.
If you are detective cleared, then we don't have any reason to KNOW Graffin's guilt:
If all three of you are innocent then by the time we get things sorted we're dead.
If Graffin is guilty, then we still don't know his accomplices. It could be those that (tried to) save him, it could be Joostein. That's still a better position than before, so if I have sufficient (say 75%?) confidence this is the case I'll go ahead. But while I still need to consider the other possibilities...
The third option is that Joostein is framing Graffin. This isn't too bad...perhaps he hoped to get away with it (for a turn), as at least we get revenge...but it does buy the mafia time...we only just have.
If it is Graffin who is detective guilted, then we don't know about John:
In this case we have the last two options.
But we also have John trying to get Joostein lynched when Graffin is found to be innocent (in this scenario). This is really bad for us as we lose 4 innocents including the Dr. Even after we get revenge that leaves us at 3 Innocents, 2 mafia. (if we react to compensate the Joostein mafia case becomes as bad)
And John trying to create confusion to protect a guilty Graffin.
So, I'll be glad of the extra 24 hours to think this through.
That's fine, I understand. It has been a confusing day.
I'm pretty well convinced Eliabulon is guilty, though. I'm more confident about that than I was about Reppik Tew.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
On second thoughts, I need you to help me understand you on some things:
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
If you are detective cleared, then we don't have any reason to KNOW Graffin's guilt:
If all three of you are innocent then by the time we get things sorted we're dead.
If Graffin is guilty, then we still don't know his accomplices. It could be those that (tried to) save him, it could be Joostein. That's still a better position than before, so if I have sufficient (say 75%?) confidence this is the case I'll go ahead. But while I still need to consider the other possibilities...
The third option is that Joostein is framing Graffin. This isn't too bad...perhaps he hoped to get away with it (for a turn), as at least we get revenge...but it does buy the mafia time...we only just have.
My specific points are:
1. We don't have any idea who is guilty, because both our detectives are dead. The two theories at the moment are that Celandine either investigated me and found me innocent and then voiced a suspicion of Eliabulon, or that she investigated Eliabulon and for whatever reason didn't declare, give the info, and ask for protection. Which I would have gladly given!
Joostein thinks that would have gotten me killed, and maybe so but it would have given her another night to work. But odds are I would still be alive because no one knew who I was until I declared. I hadn't even mentioned the doctor until I declared.
At any rate, we had to guess with Reppik, and we're going to have to guess with the others. But Eliabulon is my best guess at the moment.
2. Accomplices would look very much like Zapaterietxe or Otto. I'm willing to look at Zapaterietxe first on the basis of his ongoing, strong defense of Eliabulon.
3. This is exactly what I have planned. If we lynch one and s/he is innocent, the other dies. Point blank.
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
If it is Graffin who is detective guilted, then we don't know about John:
In this case we have the last two options.
But we also have John trying to get Joostein lynched when Graffin is found to be innocent (in this scenario). This is really bad for us as we lose 4 innocents including the Dr. Even after we get revenge that leaves us at 3 Innocents, 2 mafia. (if we react to compensate the Joostein mafia case becomes as bad)
And John trying to create confusion to protect a guilty Graffin.
So, I'll be glad of the extra 24 hours to think this through.
This is the part I'm not understanding. If Celandine checked Eliabulon and found her guilty and told us about her, then she's guilty. So then we go after assumed accomplices, which as I outlined above consist of Zapateriexte and/or Otto. Of course, that means that I'm not really detective cleared, but we actually won't know that for certain until the end of the game anyway. Since we cannot have that information right now, we shouldn't really even be speculating on it. If she investigated Eliabulon instead of me, no big deal. I'm still innocent. I'm still the doctor.
Another point of useful information: Joostein hasn't outright renounced his claim, but he's not holding it up nearly as high as he was before.
As far as me protecting a guilty Eliabulon: I think she's guilty, and I want her off this bus. Soon. Now. If Joostein proves to be guilty, then fine we can look at Eliabulon again. But I'm advocating we lynch Eliabulon today, and thus we'll know for sure which way to go.
Can you help me out here? What about your argument am I missing?
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
It's a mess, Ios, I agree. But I think the first step is easy: It's obvious either Joostein or Eliabulon is up to no good. I think we agree on that.
Does that follow?...both have accused the other and are clearly in opposition.
But unless Graffin Eliabulon has claimed to be a doctor, things between them are consistent with any combination of innocence/guilt.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
It's a mess, Ios, I agree. But I think the first step is easy: It's obvious either Joostein or Eliabulon is up to no good. I think we agree on that.
Does that follow?...both have accused the other and are clearly in opposition.
But unless Graffin Eliabulon has claimed to be a doctor, things between them are consistent with any combination of innocence/guilt.
I think it does follow, because I cannot understand why the Possessed would have nominated themselves to be the two main options for lynching today. I might could see it if Reppik Tew were still alive. But they're at a point now where if one of them is lynched, we will win. In this case, one of those two is going off the bus today, assuming we don't split the vote too badly. I cannot see why they would count on a split vote. Eliabulon is Queen Logic. I admit she's crazy, but no one is that crazy.
If we lynch a Possessed today, they would have to whittle us down to 1 innocent in order to win.
[ 18. March 2014, 18:17: Message edited by: Barefoot Friar ]
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
1. We don't have any idea who is guilty, because both our detectives are dead. The two theories at the moment are that Celandine either investigated me and found me innocent and then voiced a suspicion of Eliabulon, or that she investigated Eliabulon and for whatever reason didn't declare,...
[/qb]
Fully agree. The two parts of my most should deal with the first and second case respectively (except it appears not to).
quote:
This is the part I'm not understanding.
I'm not surprised! What I've written there is totally inaccurate.
I derived your ambivalence assuming Graffin's guilt. Then forgot I was assuming it.
That's kind of good as it was a bit of a not good scenario.
[edit to respond to Xpost]
But the other would be in a strong place of perceived innocence. I don't think it makes much sense...but I'm worried to discount it.
But the other case is a double innocent escalating suspicion. In this case others could be using it to get rid of both. (though the only real suspect for that is you and if you were doing that as you point out then Graffin is guilty, so we contradict ourselves).
[ 18. March 2014, 18:33: Message edited by: Jay-Emm ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Hophtrig, I'm sorry I have no blankets. I gave them all to Joostein. He'll need them either to form a shroud for himself as he leaps out into the xtonic radiation, or as a gag to muffle the shrieks of the Grafinn as we bundle her out the hatch. In the meantime, maybe we can pick some more fluff out of the backs of the seats to make a nest.
Here is something that I don't think Aquinas covered in the Summa, but I think it's true, and I think he would have approved if he had ever had the chance to take a bus tour on the planet Dimthing and learn the things that we have learned: I think it is impossible that there is any reason whatsoever (apart from complete and certifiable insanity, disregard for the goals of the game^H^H^H^Hbus tour, addiction to Causing Pandemonium For The Fun Of It, illicit romantic alliance formed outside of the bus tour, and things like that)... but apart from all those things (oh, Hophtrig, be a dear, check that the sun is still rising in the East, would you? One gets so uncertain about former certainties, these days), anyway, as I was saying, apart from such things, I cannot see any reason whatsoever for an Innocent person to Ever Ever Ever declare themselves Possessed.
Why thank you, but don't thank me for that insight, it's from the chapter "Warm Up By Solving Small Logic Problems" from this handy guide to "How To Survive A Dimthing Bus Tour" that I've found hidden behind the wadding in the seat back.
Hophtrig, dear, please get comfortable, this day has been so crazy, I think we need to be sitting down and prepared for more insane happenings, like an Innocent declaring themselves to be Possessed.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto by the advice of the FBC noticed back in the dialogue and discussion that Grafinn and Hophtrig had seemed briefly to be working together. Perhaps this has faded some pages later and was misdirection. Otto did get caught up in Hophtrig being nasty to him after that.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
I see your point, Ja'ayem. I agree that is a concern.
To my beady little eyes, a confirmed Possessed out the door is better than two suspected and mutually embittered foes.
I don't quite know a way to protect ourselves from that, aside from what comes out of the second day's discussion and lynching.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Ios, who said anything about innocents pretending to be Possessed? What are you talking about?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
Ios, who said anything about innocents pretending to be Possessed? What are you talking about?
No one said anything. I'm nattering away uselessly to myself, reflecting on insanity and certainty, and whether in any possible universe there is any certainty at all. A purely theoretical musing. I apologize, in these parlous times we don't want anything said that could cause confusion. I'm going to hush up while I continue reviewing and thinking.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
As far as me protecting a guilty Eliabulon: I think she's guilty, and I want her off this bus.
Ze vun thing missing from your analysis is a good reason vy you think zat I am guilty.
I can see vy you vant me to be guilty: you do not vish to be fooled. You vere very close to being convinced zat I vas on your side, until you heard Lady Celandine's last vords, und zen you thought zat she had found me guilty. Und zat must feel like a betrayal of your trust.
But ze best analysis of Celanine's vords vas zat she cleared you - ve agree on zat. So zere is no inside information zat shows me to be Possessed (und nor could zere be, as I am innocent), zere is only ze analysis of vat I have actually said und done.
Look at zat. You vill find no attempts to mislead, no shielding of others, nor groundless acccusations, but expressions of trust und suspicion vich, if not alvays right, are backed by sound reasons. I suspected you, und vas wrong. I supported und endorsed ze suspicion of Reppic (from ze start) und vas right. I suspected Joostein, und vile zat is yet to be shown right for certain, it is Joostein who admittedly tried to have somevun killed on ze basis of a deliberate (und harmful) lie. If he had not been unlucky, und ze real doctor had turned out to be ze vun person whom ze detective had cleared, he vould still be lying to you.
I know zat you do not vant to trust me. So I vill not ask you to take anything on trust. I vill only ask you if zere is anything in any statement I have made zat suggests guilt more zan innocence. I do not think zat zere is.
[ 18. March 2014, 19:27: Message edited by: Eliab ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Okay, let's play ball.
Pretend we lynch Joostein. He's helpfully offered to vote for himself, and I'm pretty sure you'll vote for him too. So that just leaves four to vote him off, and I think we can get that.
Now. Pretend he's innocent. You do realize I'll have your head next, right?
Pretend he's guilty. I still don't think you're all that squeaky clean, but fine, whatever. We run down Joostein's supposed accomplice and s/he turns out to be innocent. I'll have your head next, on principle. (And of course if the supposed accomplice turns out to be guilty, we've just won.)
Either way, you're not out of the woods once we get a verdict.
Now, you're right that I feel lied to. And not only that, but I think that those lies were mixed with half-truths -- the worst, most insidious kinds of lies, because they stand up to most logic and seem plausible. Whether it was you or Joostein, I don't know and I don't care. I just need to begin the process of clearing the Possessed off this bus, and one of you two goes off today.
But I'm not going to try to out-logic you; that would be the height of foolishness. I've said what I'm going to say for now. I'll add more later, maybe.
Know this: I intend for the innocents to win, and if that means throwing both you and Joostein off, then so be it.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
The reasoning of Ios is sound, and Otto has told the FBC, and the FBC has told Otto, that Otto will follow Ios's lead on this vote.
Posted by Surfing Madness (# 11087) on
:
Daisy re-appears completely confused as to what has been going on while she has a little snooze, looking around she says "anyone care to enlighten me what is going on?"
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey munched on another scone thoughtfully. The choice appeared to be to vote either Joostein or the Grafinn off. She thought over their actions on the last two days.
What if neither was mafia, but one was a sympathizer? Did that make sense? Joostein had gone for the Grafinn right from the start. The Grafinn had responded by nominating Joostein. Both of them had deflected attention away from Hophtrig.
Choey found none of those actions cleared one above the other. But she was still fairly certain that someone out of the three who had voted for Otto yesterday was mafia. The mafia would not all have voted for one of their own to go, though one of them might to provide a smokescreen. That person would probably have voted late, when it would make no difference to the outcome.
Joostein had voted for Otto. Joostein had just admitted lying about being the doctor. Joostein had voted late, while the Grafinn had been the deciding vote to get rid of a mafia unreadable. This made no sense unless Reppik Tew had asked his fellow mafioso to vote him off. (Yes, this could happen, it has before.)
Whatever else had been said since the last murder, the actions of Joostein appear far more alarming. But the inaction of the Grafinn is also alarming. In previous incarnations, the Eliabulon clan are usually quite proactive in brokering strategies for the innocent. This reticence has puzzled Choey. Unless the Grafinn is a sympathizer, which might affect her communications.
Choey simply doesn't know, but will go with the majority in order to get a result.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I am undecided. Still reading and reviewing. I do think this though: at the moment it is not at all obvious to me that I want to guarantee my vote tomorrow. I will come up with my best choice for today, but that may (or may not) include needing to reevaluate the evidence tomorrow and come up with a new decision tomorrow.
Otto, that is very flattering that you think my opinion is worth following. If you do follow me, I can only say that I really hope I don't lead you into a wrong decision after me. I'm not sure that I'm all that perspicacious, but I am trying to do the right thing. I think there's just enough room in this hideaway with me and Hophtrig if you'd like to come in. If you lay the FBC down along the door, it will stop the draft coming in.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Is Hophtrig a Good One? Will Hophtrig step on the FBC? Otto is fearful.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
Whatever else had been said since the last murder, the actions of Joostein appear far more alarming. But the inaction of the Grafinn is also alarming. In previous incarnations, the Eliabulon clan are usually quite proactive in brokering strategies for the innocent. This reticence has puzzled Choey. Unless the Grafinn is a sympathizer, which might affect her communications.
That is precisely why after voting me off to see that I am innocent, you must go after the Grafinn tomorrow. We are both alarming, and we are as I have stated before, the two team members most likely to be in different teams. You can start with me, because I am innocent and our team shall win anyway. I don't believe Eliabulon is a sympathiser because that's not the behaviour she has shown us - you'll want to look at Codine for that one.
The only defense that can come from Eliabulon is to say we are both innocent - but then she could just as well as me take the first leap to prove that to the group, as us making a wrong decision about two innocents that could be cleared would be the worse option as compared to lynching someone else. Until she does that, I think there is plenty of reason to suspect her. She's had her time to do so, and the logics is not lacking in her case.
Furthermore, throwing Eliabulon off the bus also gives us two interesting either/or situations:
1. Either things look very bad for Zapa, or they look very bad for me. So we'll have a good clue where to dig next.
2. The only doubt there could possibly be about John's claims to be a doctor will be cleared as he is declared to be innocent.
This is the kind of logics that an old and innocent Grafinn would usually present - and now it has to come from the insane. Admittedly, in situation 1 the potentially bad situation for me is only valid up until my own death, so that could be said to be speaking for lynching Eliabulon today. But either way, as I have said before and as Eliabulon has not denied and as he dares not put into deniable practice by offering to go first: there is no other pair of players so likely to hold one bad team member. I provoked this situation so I am the one who could be a sympathiser.
I am ready to go first to prove that I'm not the one. If I'm wrong, the Grafinn could defend my innocence and offer to go first herself to back up the claim that we're both innocent, and save us the victory by clearing me and putting the limelight towards greater evil genii - pretty much only Zapa left at that point of those accused of being potential to bluff that big. So there we are. And tonight, I am prepared to vote myself off, because our team shall win with the amount of information that comes from Eliabulon's demise.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Otto, I have no idea if Hophtrig is good. For that matter, I have no idea if you are good. But both of you seem to be far less dangerous right now than at least one of Joostein and Eliabulon (and if they're both innocent, Joostein at least is still dangerous because in that case he's going to get two innocents killed without the Possessed having to barely lift a finger.)
I think Hophtrig might like to hug the FBC, but I think Hophtrig, although somewhat like a golden retriever in his enthusiasm is actually quite careful where he puts his feet and is unlikely to step on the FBC.
Ekaterina (I speak familiarly because before night falls I might -- I only say "might" at this point -- help the assembled passengers escort you to your death by xtonic radiation, and that seems like one of the most intimate ways two people can interact, awful though it is), if I do vote to ask you to retrieve our engine, it will be because of the incredible respect I have for your abilities. I can only wish I would be so bold as to play the game of Multiple Bluff that (if I vote you out the hatch) I will have come to believe you are playing. I believe that you are certainly that bold.
A curious point to me is that this perhaps hypothetical game of Multiple Bluff makes sense to me. Wheels within wheels is what I see. Ezekiel's chariot has nothing on my crazy visions.
On the other hand, Joostein and John's innocent false doctor idea would never in nine trillion years have occurred to me. But it has a certain terrible logic to it that I cannot yet refute.
I wonder of there is some way to see through to some core realities of the situation and finesse the problem of not being able to sort it out logically.
John, of course you have been told some mixture of half truths by somebody, at least if the Possessed is one of our lengthy talkers. That's a more sophisticated strategy for the Possessed than telling obvious lies. (Although there's always the double bluff strategy of seeming really obviously guilty "surely no Possessed could be so stupid as to be so obvious, so X must be innocent" would be the reaction the Possessed hope for in that case.)
[this is probably cross-posted with nine million people and other beings.]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Joostein, you could be innocent but also incredibly misguided. So I can't just decide to kick out you, and/or Eliabulon, in either order, and feel completely confident of catching a guilty one. Every thing is so crazy today, I need to consider whether you are both innocent, along with all the other combinations.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
AND THE GUILTY WILL MAKE THEMSELVES KNOWN!!!!!!!
With a mighty wind and a clap of thunder, Zapaterietxe condensed himself. Finally. The waiting had paid off. He'd given more than enough rope to the condemned, and now they seemed ready to hang themselves.
Joostein Käse, just in case anyone missed you being nominated, I name you as one of the Possessed! Rail as you might against the Grafinn, this, my good being, is right out of her handbook! Make an implausible and false claim, use it to attack at least one innocent, and get people who know better to go along with it? Well played, and bravo! A pity for you I've seen it before, of course, but that's what you get for having me on board. All we need is a one-eyed teddy bear, a flaming house, and "JOOSTEIN DID IT" burned into the front lawn, and it'd be deja vu all over again! Wait, I can make that happen!
A small model of the scene in question appeared at the angel's feet, bathed in a crimson light, along with a faint voice calling to Mister Fuzzypaws
So yes. So many things that don't add up. So many suspicions that seem to come straight from the offbeat strategies of the one you accuse. So much encouraging of factions, making those who were once flattered look guilty, twisting of truth—why, you make a false role claim, then are contradicted by an investigated and known innocent who has that role, and yet have him agreeing with you???? Allision Eliab and Demosthenes 0.9 would be so proud of you.
So let's review a few very salient facts, shall we? First, you have been caught in a lie. A very big lie, actually. A lie that has accomplished something a Cultist or Possessed being would just love—neutralizing the doctor by making him unable to protect anyone but himself if he wants to live, now that he's been exposed. This is why I advocated the real doctor stay low; he'd be of no use to us if known, as the Possessed could either kill him during the night if he chose to save someone else, or kill with impunity, if he chooses to save himself each night. Either way, once John revealed himself, our advantage was over. Why, let me ask, would the real doctor, apropos of nothing, reveal himself? It's worse than saying "I'm innocent"—unless you're trying to expose the real doctor! And now, we've had an unambiguous counterclaim—but the counterclaimant is going along with the lie!
Here. Let's analyze it this way. What do the Possessed get by eliminating G.Ek.El? The elimination of someone regarded as a fearsome strategist and a leader? Yes, that. A chance to sow confusion, stir shit, form factions, distract from a rather pressing set of accusations that came against Choey during the night that they haven't sufficiently answered? That too. A chance to tie me to her, end the doctor's suspected protection of me, and eliminate their most effective adversary? BINGO.
We've already established that they weren't going to be able to assassinate me during the night. I suspect that they knew this, or suspected as much—based on past experience, doctors often protect the loudest, most obvious target, and the Possessed would know better than to try for someone like me, someone possibly being protected. No, their hope would be to have me lynched, "oh dear, what a sad mistake, how could this have ever happened," and then proceed without their main opponent.
Look what happened when I went silent. Confusion. Discord. Nobody knows what to think anymore. Where I was once flattered, to the point I was suspicious, now I stand accused. Where we were once out to get Otto and/or Choey, now the heat is as good as off both of them. Where once a lie, once known as a lie, would have been grounds for being sent after the engine, now it's ignored, even by the one who exposed its falsehood! When we were unified, when we worked together, Reppik met his just fate, we discussed, accused, and defended ourselves without succumbing to confusion and chaos, and we were on track to prevail. Now? Look at us. Why would the Possessed want the person who unified the innocents behind him, who was able to force errors, and now seems to have flushed out another member of their number by causing him to make a false role claim (perhaps I was getting too close to Otto or Choey for his comfort; he did seem to take it poorly to me when I was after her, though Reppik merited no such defense)—well, why would they want me unprotected for assassination or lynched? I think that's pretty clear, don't you?
Here. Let's examine a few facts of the scenario Joostein presents to you as likely. In his version of reality, I'm working with Eliabulon and Reppik, and, I suppose, Codine (four possessed? Does he think me a sympathizer?) against you. How, then, does he explain the vote against Reppik, given that it is assumed that the Possessed would have one of their number vote for someone else, the better to hide? It would be easy enough to have Codine vote for Otto; Reppik had already been sacrificed. "Yes," I hear you say, "but you're a clever being, and you've defied expectations before, haven't you?" First, I suspect flatters, so quit it. Second, yes, it's true that voting en bloc could be used to hide, especially when voting for "no lynching" in the first round—so why didn't we do it? If you're assuming we're coordinating votes, and that a group of the greatest criminal masterminds the universe has ever known are doing the plotting, then it just looks like a bit of a hash job, doesn't it? For that matter, if you just assume I'm a Cultist (how did I know the name of the incredibly secretive organization our Sympathizer belongs to?), my ardent desire to throw one of my own under the bus on day one makes so little sense. If I thought—as I did—that both Lesley and Reppik were guilty, but knew that Lesley wasn't, wouldn't I want her voted off first? It might mean a countervote for me the next day, but, when I was expelled and found out as the cultist, you'd naturally suspect Reppik was innocent, nominated by a bloodthirsty cultist. If I'm supposed to be some sort of evil genius, I'm certainly not doing a very good job at the "genius" part!
The lights dim, then turn blood red. The shadows on the wall of the bus take on a harsh and angular appearance; the wild view of the moon outside the windows somehow manages to look even more threatening and sinister. The angel transforms himself; he somehow grows even taller, even though his head was practically against the ceiling already; his hair disappears, replaced with a crown of horns, and wings of darkness spread from his shoulders. His eyes turn red, his body seems to merge with the shadows, and a faint whiff of sulfur permeates the bus.
You want to know what a real angel of darkness would do? Let's assume Eliabulon and I are working together—and, lest anyone forget, started out with Reppik. You have three veterans of these types of situations, two of whom are noted for their love of offbeat strategies, psychological counterbluffing, and reputation for outbullshitting anyone. So of course we're going to sacrifice someone to save ourselves. Of course we're going to spot Crimson the first day, and guess that the doctor isn't protecting someone quiet—but that's the behavior we'd expect from a doctor trying to avoid attention. We might have gone after John instead of "someone quiet" yesterday, just because he looked like a potential unifier, someone who might command respect, and, to be honest, it's best to quelch beings who are unknown but look promising early before they gain enough experience to become even more of a threat. So things would have gone kinda how they did, except there's a chance John would be dead instead of Lucy.
But the sacrifice. Really, why Reppik? He could have hidden out, lay low, and stuck around without arousing suspicion until everyone else was dead—and, what's more, would have been more resistant to Lucy if she ever suspected him! Why sacrifice him when we have the most guilty-looking being who always, and I do mean always, manages to make himself look guilty, especially to those who haven't met him or his ancestors, and who isn't immune to investigation?
If I were guilty, I'd have nominated Eliabulon myself.
And so, with him lynched a day or two earlier than he would have been otherwise, Reppik and I would have been home free. If I'd been the sympathizer, I would have done the exact same thing—it would have earned me protection from John against the Possessed, erased any suspicion of guilt on my part, and would have let me take over in leading all of you against yourselves. Woulda been great. Who needs a brilliant mastermind working as the Possessed when you can get a better one working for them? They'd tell stories about how brilliant I was for years. Subtlety, deception, and complex strategy like that is good for business, dontchaknow?
So that's the rough outline of why I don't think I'm guilty. Now, let me tone down the lights for this next part, and see what I've missed while we've been talking over each other—oh, don't worry, the best is still yet to come, I'm not done yet!
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot (*), Zapaterietxe, you startled me. Is that a link to a hologram of The Life Of The Notorious Criminal Ancestral Eliabulon? I've never seen that one. Look Hophtrig, Otto, a hologram to watch.
(*), no I'm not sure what they are. I think they were three dances of Twentieth Century Earthlings. An interesting custom is that after dancing Whiskey for several hours, Earthlings would then do a Reel -- yes, right in the streets dancing all the way home.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
So many words. But I can extend this offer to you, Zapa, if you're innocent, you can nominate yourself (the Grafinn already nominated me as she stated that one of us was not on the other's team) and prove it. I will extend my offer to that among the three of us - me, you and the Grafinn, there is at least one baddie. So all of us must go.
I'll go first if you promise to go third. You could even throw in anyone in between us, Otto or whoever you like. Could you promise (and keep it) to go third if I am innocent? That's all I need to know.
I think there's two of us that are evil in the bunch of three, and I think patterns in the game reveal it as much as other things.
I don't fear leaderlessness or confusion - with John and Ios we're pretty safe. I don't think others should fear that either. But I'll go first to spare you your leaders, if you promise to go third.
As for Codine, she's the sympathiser.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Joostein Käse:
So many words. But I can extend this offer to you, Zapa, if you're innocent, you can nominate yourself (the Grafinn already nominated me as she stated that one of us was not on the other's team) and prove it. I will extend my offer to that among the three of us - me, you and the Grafinn, there is at least one baddie. So all of us must go.
I'll go first if you promise to go third. You could even throw in anyone in between us, Otto or whoever you like. Could you promise (and keep it) to go third if I am innocent? That's all I need to know.
I think there's two of us that are evil in the bunch of three, and I think patterns in the game reveal it as much as other things.
I don't fear leaderlessness or confusion - with John and Ios we're pretty safe. I don't think others should fear that either. But I'll go first to spare you your leaders, if you promise to go third.
As for Codine, she's the sympathiser.
Nominate me for what end? To give you a chance to split the vote? To let you have another innocent dead? No, I think not, Splitter.
Your defense—"name yourself as guilty, because I can't"—has been noted. The ghost of Reppik Tew and his attempts to divert us when he was cornered has returned.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I've started studying the materials Zapaterietxe has provided us. They make for very interesting reading. This one is cued up to the endgame and postlude of an adventure of one of my other great great great great great great aunts, Autenrieth Rose. Alas, she vanished in the desert, and nobody knows what became of her. I think I have inherited her traits of being inscrutable, but crap at detecting. Doesn't keep me from trying, though.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
Pretend we lynch Joostein. [...]
Now. Pretend he's innocent. You do realize I'll have your head next, right?
I do not think zat he is innocent. Innocent people do not tell lies to draw out our specials und persvade others to evict zeir enemies on ze basis of falsehoods.
Und I am not persvaded by ze 'I volunteer to be evicted to prove I am innocent' line. Zat is a bluff, vich should be called.
quote:
Pretend he's guilty. I still don't think you're all that squeaky clean, but fine, whatever. We run down Joostein's supposed accomplice and s/he turns out to be innocent. I'll have your head next, on principle. (And of course if the supposed accomplice turns out to be guilty, we've just won.)
Either way, you're not out of the woods once we get a verdict.
Zat is fine.
I do not vant you to stop analysing und assessing everything zat is said. You are in ze unique position of being ze vun person who ve can trust to be innocent. Your analysis is not guaranteed to be right because of zat, but it is at least not deliberately misleading. Zerefore ze responsibility on you to think hard is important.
I agree zat if Joostein is guilty, it does not absolutely prove zat I am guiltless. I vill contend zat it is evidence of some significance, but not that it entitles me to be considered above suspicion.
I am going to guess (though I do not know) zat Joostein is ze sympathiser. Ze false claim, ze groundless accusations, ze belligerent focus on vun person, regardless of ze strength of vatever argument he is making against zem, all seem curious behaviour for vun of ze killers, but suggest a consistent strategy to distract und confuse, vile drawing out ze specialists on our side - a good use of ze sympathiser's role.
quote:
Know this: I intend for the innocents to win, and if that means throwing both you and Joostein off, then so be it.
I also intend for ze innocents to vin. Zat is vy, ven ve catch vun of ze guilty in a lie, ve must act.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
I don't fear leaderlessness or confusion - with John and Ios we're pretty safe.
I appreciate the vote of confidence, but no, you're not necessarily safe with me, because I am really unsure WTF is going on, and I'm really unsure what would be a good way to vote, or failing that, the least-damaging way to vote. So I could in all innocence and well-meaning choose a way to vote that severely damages the innocent cause.
[ 18. March 2014, 23:48: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
And now, for more. Oh don't worry, Joostein, I'm not calling your bluff just because I'm innocent. I have far more to prove than that. Why, I haven't even ruled out the possibility that you and the Grafinn are in this together—now wouldn't that just put the icing on my fine-looking hat up there? Oh, I'm quite prepared to eat it—indeed, more prepared today than I was yesterday, as her almighty royal aristocratic highness hasn't quite completely demolished you and used you to wipe the floors with yet, as I'd have expected (finally, something out of character from her!)—but you…if you could distract me from pursuing Choey when I was in a lather for her hide, if you could trip every bullshit sensor I could ever create while my attention was elsewhere, if you can simultaneously claim that you're not worried about confusion—Ios and John have things under control—when both of them are complaining about how confused they are, no thanks to you…
You stink to high heaven, and you're wearing Reppik Tew's perfume.
Sometimes, even I see the benefit of shutting up and watching. I sure planted my field last night, going after Choey like I did, thinking my way through likely scenarios, perhaps even guiding you and your cronies to possible strategies. Who knows? Mostly, I wanted to watch reactions, see who stood up for whom, who responded in what way to things. Who spotted errors, even the entirely unintentional ones, and how did they mention this to me? Who would stand up for Choey or Otto—or seek to create a diversion? What would happen when I stopped dominating the discussion and let someone else step into the vaccuum? Was Choey just Lesley 2.0—an innocent with a "KILL ME" sign on their backs—or, if she was Possessed, would someone step in and try to save her?
Call me evil, call me a schemer, even call me an arrogant bastard of a shape-shifting being, but don't call me Possessed. I may not know the secret thoughts you hold in your craven heart, but I can tell that you're up to no good.
Let us review some salient points, shall we?
First, you've been caught in a lie. Twist it how you might, try to explain it away, but you've been caught—and it's much, much easier to ascribe a motive for this lie if you've been Possessed than if you haven't been. In fact, any excuses you give for being both a liar and innocent (an innocent liar? Was there ever such a thing?) fall flat. The Razor of Father William cuts through ever so many lies, my dear Norwegian troll. You. Are. A. Liar. Let none ever forget this fact.
Second, you've been advancing an absolutely implausible scheme to rope Eliabulon, Reppik Tew, and me together as the Possessed. I believe I've already described a motive for why you'd want to eliminate the two of us who still live—in addition to showing you, and all with eyes to see, ears to hear, and other sense organs to do…other things—why it goes against logic, reason, uncommon sense, basic intuition, and every faculty of the Imagination to believe that I'm Possessed, especially if Eliabulon is as well. Which is more plausible: that I've been playing a near-flawless game, occasional confusion or communication error aside, hiding the fact that I'm lying out my nonexistent ass, being an evil mastermind who sacrifices the more valuable of his compatriots while retaining the one everyone always wants to lynch at some point, and generally drawing a big, fat target on myself—or that I'm innocent and you're trying to get rid of me any way you can? The Michaelite Friar's Vorpal Razor goes snicker-snack through your lies!
Third, you effectively neutralized the doctor by drawing him out in a false role claim. Now, you and your cronies can act with impunity; either he protects another, and dies, or protects himself, letting you kill anyone else. And what's his defense when Ios calls him on the carpet? "Throw Eliabulon off the bus!" he cries, "look at her, Z, and Codeine!" Why, if you agree to vote for Eliabulon, he'll even agree to split the vote by voting for himself! A great deal, I'm sure—but not a defense against being caught in a lie or neutralizing our doctor!
I also note in that last paragraph a little example of what we call "poisoning the well." In the indeterminate realm of pure space I come from, we call that a "fallacy." Of course you can expect me to take issue with your words (for reasons you haven't bothered to tell us yet, but assure us will be forthcoming), and it must be for sinister motives, rather than because you're full of it. Out with you, and the Bloont can follow!
Next, have we forgotten this bit of suspicion on the part of one Joostein thinks quite capable and immune to confusion:
quote:
Originally posted by John:
Joostein has been at Eliabulon's throat the whole time, and that seems to be a common thread. Attack Eliab, let him stir stuff up, and hide in the chaos. I like your theory about Hophtrig, Choey, and Otto, and it still fits here. If correct, it means lynching either Otto or Choey would be a mistake.
To add to my speculation, Joostein voted for Otto while waffling about it. I honestly don't get what all the fuss was about, but when casting his vote he gave this speech about why he was voting for Otto:
quote:
So it seems to me to be a choice between maximizing your knowledge of me, by sealing the deal, or maximizing my own knowledge about others by not doing so. I think making this stand, and voting at this point (I could wait for a few hours and leave the call up to others) should speak to my willingness to present information about myself, rather than to hide.
This could be read as a handwave, a plea to look the other direction. He added to it in a quick second post, and then further on, after Reppik was proven guilty. I went back and checked to see if I could figure out what he was talking about, and drew a blank.
There was some sort of something going on between Hophtrig and Joostein in the beginning, and someone pointed out that it looked fishy, like it was a distraction.
Yes Joostein, even before you made your false claim, even before you started making arguments that practically seem to be written in Pavian script, you were suspect in the eyes of John. Only by making the most calculated, shit-stirring handwave you could were you able to deflect his attention. I think we, and he, should trust his intuitions and logic from before you made your ad homenem against the Grafinn and threw this bus into confusion and strife.
Here endith Part the Second of Zapaterietxe's Apology, "contra Joosteina"
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Oh, for the love of God and everything holy.
Now he shows up.
Well, like I said before. One of the two of them goes off this bus today. Whichever one it is I don't freaking care.
Lying to me, getting my head all messed up. Gah. I swear, next chance I get to go on one of these tours, so help me...
I'm probably going to get on the durn bus and go anyway. I'm a fool for pain that way.
And I sure as hell have learned a lot.
John was later found in a fetal position, rocking and muttering over and over again: "This is how the world ends, this is how the world ends, this is how the world ends, not with a bang but a whimper."
[ 19. March 2014, 00:48: Message edited by: Barefoot Friar ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Okay, time to man up and take my medicine.
Zapaterietxe, I've carefully read every word you've posted and I believe you are right.
Further, I believe everything you've said about me is right. I screwed up, and screwed up royally. After this is all over with I'll be contacting you, with your permission, to hash it out so I don't make the same mistake again.
For now, however, I want Joostein off this bus. It makes me angry that I allowed him to mess with my head that way. It makes me angry that I allowed him to pressure me into a counterclaim. It makes me the most angry of all to realize that not only did he do those things, but he had me buying it.
I'm ashamed of myself. I should have known better. Even if it is "just a game". Imagine the implications if this was real life.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
And now, sit back, relax (unless you're Joostein), and enjoy Part the Third:
Now then. More specific accusations. Confusion and faction, for starters. "Would you join us?" sounds like someone has started a pact. The flattery following afterwards—"they won't listen to you, but I do" is priceless. "I don't know what's going on, but I'll go with the majority" and "I'm confused, but I'll do what the majority do" are not the sentiments of beings who are confident, who are being presented with clear arguments that cohere with what they know to be true. Same with "I'll do what someone else does" and "thanks for telling me I'm important, but I don't know what's happening." You flatter people to go along with you, to abandon their grasp on William's All-Slicing Razor; you sow confusion, causing them to no longer see your lies for what they are, but just another part of the general miasma; you turn independent agents who should be listening, checking, debating, defending, reasoning, rebutting into confused herd animals, the blind leading the blind, all following you, a confirmed liar, on a road to perdition. Joostein's game of "blame the Grafinn" was what first caused me to try and stop any attempt to create a split that could be exploited; as we've seen when I intentionally absented myself and watched—by their deeds ye shall know them, yes, but only if you let them act!—he'll take aim at her to sow dissent and confusion. It was resisting scapegoating, responding logically to accusations (and misaccusations), calling out handwaving and nonexplanations, and examining matters of fact carefully that lead us to catching Reppik; allowing this confirmed liar to confuse us, attempt to hold voting early before others could/would speak and the odds seem to be in his favor, and otherwise deviate from a proven strategy will only harm us.
The only way for a liar to get away with his lies is to make you so confused that you can no longer discern the truth.
Now, before you say anything, there are two questions I'm going to want to anticipate. First, what about Lesley? Wasn't I wrong about her? Second, am I abandoning my pursuit of Choey? Wasn't I hot on her trail last night?
To the first: I wasn't the only one who thought she looked suspicious. I will admit that I was wrong, albeit wrong for reasonable reasons; I will also point out that, while I moved plenty of wind in making a case against her, my case against Reppik was the one that stuck, the one I thought more worth pursuing, and, ultimately, the one I did pursue. Perhaps I only truly push a case against those I think most guilty. Perhaps I just follow whatever the best evidence I have might be, but follow it to the bitter end. Perhaps I've just found that pushing and asking questions gets people to talk, gets information to flow, often answers my questions, and draws out those who would try and stop me.
And so, to why I've put my pursuit of Choey on hold for the time being: yes, I still think she sure looked guilty. She probably still does, if I were to look things over yet again, but, just as a candle only looks bright until somebody turns on the sun, so too does she only look like the most guilty thing on the bus whenever Joostein isn't lying to us while saying someone else is guilty. I'll never say she doesn't look guilty, just as I'll never say that apple I just materialized at Daisy's feet doesn't look like an apple; it may be, though, that, like Lesley, she's innocent, just as that apple's made of very precisely controlled Hellene wine. Try it, it's quite good.
This time, however, things are different. This is the kind of trick I'd expect from the Grafinn. So much so, I almost suspect she and Joostein are in league with one another—it's exactly the kind of bluff they'd both love to pull on us, the kind of challenging and risky strategy that they might just think they can pull off. Or maybe it's just Joostein reading over the historical records of the Eliabi Clan, which, given her recent accession to the nobility, she understandably might have wished to have been left unmentioned, and is deciding to beat her at her own game. The former seems almost plausible, especially since Eliabulon would know from my many previous statements that I'd expect something like this from her if she were Possessed—so why not get the lowlife troll to be her mouthpiece and save her the trouble?—and, given how quick Joostein was to nominate her on the first day, even before there was any reason to suspect her, even knowing that there was nothing suspicious about her actions at all, it makes me almost suspect they've been plotting a public feud to take the heat off one another for a while. I'm not too confident in that idea, mind you, but I could see them trying it. The latter idea? I've posted links to the records of analogous situations from John's computer before. We've seen them and read them. A wise enemy of ours would learn from them and use the lessons of the past against us.
Joostein, if you're not collaborating with the Grafinn, it's because you're trying to outwit her on her own turf. To think, you got away with it for so long.
Now, making a false role claim is almost always a sign of desperation. You know you'll be caught in your lie as soon as you expose the actual doctor, unless you're very, very good at twisting the truth, as Miss Alison Eliab was when she tried it in the records we've seen. There, she was all but caught, in a last-ditch effort to blame someone, anyone, else. Happily, an earlier member of the Cult of the Red Cat Goddess took extreme measures to root her out, resulting in a victory for the town. So, here's my question: why make the false claim now? You've run the risk of being exposed—the confusion on the bus you've caused will be ended as soon as we all realize that what's causing it is your statements not adding up, the cognitive dissonance of being asked to believe and trust a known liar, and you'll be thrown off—so why take the risk? As soon as your lie is unmasked, once the Big Lie that seems so implausible we can't comprehend how anyone could make it up, so we believe it, is shown to be what it is, you're toast. You can take in and confuse even the most brilliant with a good lie, those who try to approach it with the tools suited to truth; as soon as one of us comes and shows that their tools only failed not because they were blind, but because they were honest, and brought an honest being's toolkit with them, the weapons best suited to liars will be unleashed. So why risk it? Who are you trying to protect, what goal are you trying to achieve?
Well, I've already mentioned one: you're trying to kill me, someone you had reason to believe was, as the most prominent person generally thought innocent, being protected. Now that you've drawn out the detective, you've even managed to implicate me based on my defense of Eliabulon (really now people, let's think for a moment: if I were really Possessed, even discounting every other piece of evidence my words and actions show, would I really make such a big point about associating myself with someone else I was working with? Are you willing to think me a brilliant and unbeatable logician except when it comes to who I overtly associate with? Do you not think one as crafty as you believe me to be would, if guilty, overtly associate himself with someone innocent in the hopes you'd lynch them if I ever got busted?), causing John to overtly say that he'll no longer be protecting me tonight. Which is just fine, I suppose, so long as the rest of you survive—part of why I made so many accusations and inquiries during the night is because it might be my last chance to do so, and, if I draw a little extra attention because of some line of questioning and get offed, you might be able to guess who did it and return the favor. But the fact is, one of the greatest enemies of the Possessed, the one who lead the charge against Reppik Tew, is now suspect and vulnerable to assassination. I suspect that, at least once, I've pointed out a line of inquiry someone else could follow up on by putting together pieces I missed, or adding information that might come out later after my death; best to squelch that while you can, no?
But what if somebody else was getting too close to Joostein or his accomplice?
In the time leading up to his false declaration, Choey, Codine, John, Ios, and Eliabulon (for whatever that's worth) all declared their suspicions of Joostein. As I think I mentioned during the night, there was something about Joostein that didn't quite sit right with me—too many situations and scenarios in which he kept coming out looking bad, especially if I decided that Ios and John were innocent; as a side note that may or may not mean anything, a quick look over the transcript shows that Otto was in the distinct minority of people who weren't suspicious of Joostein. Now, that's five (six if you count me) out of eleven who suspected him—call it five and a half, given that I could have put my suspicions more strongly. So things were looking distinctly bad for him.
And what'd he do? Lied. Confused. Deceived. Scapegoated. Shitstirred. Created factions. Turned us from rational beings into herd animals.
And I let him.
Had I stepped in and stopped him, as I have now, we would have never seen his guilt and the confusion he could sow; I would have still had my suspicions about Ios, now firmly put to rest (by the way, something you might be interested in from The Old People Who Came Before Us), and I still might have pursued what could turn out to have been a fool's crusade against Choey. So I waited, watched, took notes, observed, analyzed, and let the confusion spread, until it could no longer be ignored. Now that you have seen it, now that you know the damage a truly great unbelievable lie can do, I trust that you will reject it.
Here endith the Apologia
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
Further, I believe everything you've said about me is right. I screwed up, and screwed up royally. After this is all over with I'll be contacting you, with your permission, to hash it out so I don't make the same mistake again.
For now, however, I want Joostein off this bus. It makes me angry that I allowed him to mess with my head that way. It makes me angry that I allowed him to pressure me into a counterclaim. It makes me the most angry of all to realize that not only did he do those things, but he had me buying it.
I'm ashamed of myself. I should have known better. Even if it is "just a game". Imagine the implications if this was real life.
As I said when I first heard you—because you're right, it does seem unbelievable when you look at it—a lie this blatant isn't something easy to understand when you're used to truth, when you want truth. I may have picked the right time to step back and watch; it meant I was just removed enough to not be caught up in the confusion as it was happening, and so could see it as if from the outside, stepping back in at the point when it could be shown to you as a great thing, rather than a small thing.
It's a classic strategy that I doubt that even I could have spotted if I were sucked up into it, rather than working against it at the end, when it was great and obvious.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
So, after all this, we are back to serious question marks over Justein and Hophtrig.
Sometimes it's just not as complicated as everyone tries to make it.
Choey decided something MUCH stronger than tea was needed. Rum punch anyone?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Zapaterietxe, how were your suspicions against me put to rest? (Or hold off until after this bus tour and we meet in heaven, if you think telling now might reveal something to the Possessed.)
I see you are familiar with Tommy A and his writings.... Oh, you were there and helped guide him in his writings? That must have been great fun.
Curiously, since the last time I posted I have been thinking in a way that brings me into line with Zapaterietxe, although perhaps by a slightly different route. I was helped by reviewing my great great great great great great aunt Rose Autenrieth's diary. I return to what I said at the beginning, that I am not going to be able to solve this on logic. But what I can do is act on my core beliefs. And at a pinch, that will be Don't Lie (unless of course you're Possessed or a Sympathizer, or perhaps in circumstances as an Innocent where you don't run the risk of confusing the f..k out of your fellow innocents).
That would mean voting to send Joostein after the engine.
But I could not find it reasonable to commit to sending Eliabulon after Joostein on the next day. If Joostein turns out to be guilty and caught in his own monstrous bluff, then the obvious thing would be that Eliabulon is innocent. And if Joostein turns out to be innocent, then I for one am more likely to believe that Joostein was deeply deeply many deeply misguided, rather than that Eliabulon is guilty.
Call me naive, blind, unnaturally attracted to authority figures, frighteningly susceptible to the charms of lawyers, or whatever, but I am more likely to look elsewhere than Eliabulon for the next person to lynch after Joostein. (At the same time, the bold bluff that would have a guilty Eliabulon put up the Unreadable Possessed Reppik as the supposedly "irrational" choice for the Possessed who is deliberately sacrificed early on, thereby convincing us that Eliabulon couldn't be Possessed because the Possessed wouldn't make that particular sacrifice: well, I for one think that's exactly the sort of thing an Eliabulon would do. And I think it would be brilliant. But I'm just not ready tonight at least to make any commitments to acting on that idea. I know, this may seem contradictory and irrational. See above about naïveté, blindness, etc.)
So then I tried to reverse it. Lynch Eliabulon today, and if she's innocent, then we would know to lynch a guilty Joostein tomorrow? But no, Eliabulon turning out to be innocent does not prove to me that Joostein is guilty, because Joostein might be innocent but dreadfully misguided.
So planning a double lynching (by which I mean today's lynching, and then a predetermined plan for tomorrow's lynching) doesn't work for me in either direction. So I have to choose today's vote on my concerns for today only.
The only thing that makes sense for me is to call Joostein on his bluff. Either Joostein is guilty, and good we'll be rid of one more Possessed. (If Eliabulon is also guilty, and yes, I can imagine the two of them cooking up this gigantic shitstorm of insanity -- I mean, it's quite possible that Joostein learned about the fake doctor bluff from the descendant of the originator of it (although if he did they lucked out beyond their wildest dreams when the one known innocent joined in so enthusiastically) -- well, if Eliabulon is guilty I'm not likely to lead the charge against her, but I can help hunt for the Sympathizer. Anyway, either Joostein is guilty, and we're one to the good. Or Joostein is innocent, and I have made a stand against batshit crazy deception (or perhaps it really is crazy like a fox deception).
I know, there's perhaps as much there to cause one to suspect Eliabulon as clear her. And maybe I'll feel more willing to vote against her tomorrow. But tonight, between Joostein and Eliabulon, I find I cannot bring myself to risk voting against a possibly innocent Eliabulon. Whereas Joostein is begging us to lynch him, and sowing confusion everywhere as Zapaterietxe points out, and is known to have Lied to us.
There are aspects of just about everyone's behavior on this bus that have been questionable. But I haven't got either the computing power or the smarts to run all possible combinations of Possessed and Sympathizer against the transcripts so far to come up with a Maximum Likelihood Estimate of who are the baddies. So I'm left with my gut feelings and core beliefs, and those say: Joostein, I would like you to go try to retrieve our engine.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
That was cross-posted with Choey
quote:
Sensibly observed by Ms. Bacca Loriettr:
Sometimes it's just not as complicated as everyone tries to make it.
Very true, Choey.
I'm going to hold off on considering Hophtrig until tomorrow, though. We're having a lovely time watching holograms right now, and noone's going anywhere until after the J/E problem is resolved. At the moment, I have my own person in mind for evaluation as an engine-retriever tomorrow, although tomorrow I might come to think Hophtrig might make a better engine-retriever.
Hophtrig, don't shudder like that. It's just ordinary equal-opportunity suspicion planned for tomorrow, not the shitstorm of Everyone Is Batshit Crazy suspicion we've been having today.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
I shall be proven innocent. That is the way it must be. I am not sure why they go to such lengths to describe me as guilty, when it will be easy to prove that I am not. They are calling my bluff, it's just that I have not been bluffing.
John, promise me this. If I am not an evil genius, one or more of Zapa and Eliabulon have to be - and thus one of them should go off in the upcoming two days. If one of them goes, look the other very, very closely in the eye. I suspect kerfuffle though, as they would otherwise not call my bluff - which you shall see. Watch out for thrown-offs that cannot be identified or something such. It's their only chance once you've taken out one of them and can see the tracks surrounding them and surrounding this day.
They fester on confusion - such as Zapa's warning for a doctor not to step out. They will vote out Otto, Choey, Hophtrig, Daisy, silent people who cannot all be evil but who are unclear. Ios will most likely die tonight, as she is somewhat cleared - nobody suspects her. Eliabulon and Zapa will not. They will at some point turn on each other and Codine will remain as the sympathiser, holding the vote necessary to bump innocents off. They have done so already, but only enough to cover the blatant tracks between Eliabulon and Zapa defense-wise.
I do not say this to be believed right now, but so that after my death you shall know my logics. As for logics, Eliabulon remains the one whose death will present us with the most information, about me and about Zapa. And yet she cowers away from the ultimate revelation that I'm a crook or she is. Note that.
The voting is set to open at 8 PM London time. I shall go for this Danish gambit and as soon as my RealLyfe internal clock allows me to wake up, at about 12 PM London time or 4 hours after the opening of the voting, I shall vote for myself to ensure that I, not anyone innocent (Hophtrig or Choey) or TESS, go out the door. Please do not vote ahead of this.
Watch out for schemes turning at the last day, deciding I must be innocent and thus we should have no lynching. Two of me, Zapa and Eliabulon must die in the upcoming three days, that is the nature of the game. Once I'm dead, take them out. Take them out. Take them out.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Ios, if you want the most information, you should lynch Eliabulon. If he is guilty, then Zapa is too. If he is innocent, I should go for all sorts of reasons. We are not on the same good side. He does not dare to reveal his innocence for the well-being of the group, but I do. If you want to save your favourite figures, as in having them return home once this entire bus trip is over, should they be innocent, you will have trouble finding the killers in time. There is no pair that is so suspect as me and Eliabulon.
But you don't even have to make it tomorrow. Set up Zapa or Eliabulon as guaranteed for the day after tomorrow, unless they point out someone possessed (not just a sympathiser) correctly tomorrow. That would leave room open for me being wrong, while at the same time keeping them accountable.
But most of all, look up the definition in the dictionary of the word squirm and then read their posts and their lack of posts from twelve to thirty-six hours ago. That's killer behaviour.
Either way, at least one of me, Zapa and Eliabulon are guilty, which is why one of them must go before the third day, assuming that I'm killed today.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
I suspect kerfuffle though, as they would otherwise not call my bluff - which you shall see. Watch out for thrown-offs that cannot be identified or something such. It's their only chance once you've taken out one of them and can see the tracks surrounding them and surrounding this day.
They fester on confusion - such as Zapa's warning for a doctor not to step out. They will vote out Otto, Choey, Hophtrig, Daisy, silent people who cannot all be evil but who are unclear. Ios will most likely die tonight, as she is somewhat cleared - nobody suspects her. Eliabulon and Zapa will not. They will at some point turn on each other...
What is this I see before me? A lack of reply to my accusations? A bunch of hand-waving and promises from a liar, begging the one who has least reason to believe him, who has suspected him, who was betrayed by him, to trust him one last time, to do the liar's bidding after he's gone? My own accusations, with only the names changed?
You have been found out, you will be thrown out, but first, you will receive no more help from me and Crimson. THIS we take back!
Joostein's translator explodes, its pieces evaporating as they return to the primal matter from which they were made. Only a small bit of the bus's control circuit board, charred and broken, falls to the ground.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Choey, you make Hophtrig sad. There is one proven liar on this bus, and Choey has put the same questionmarks over Hophtrig as over the liar.
Hophtrig and Joosten did work together trying to fix the bus. Hophtrig did offer himself to go out the door before, just like Joosten has now, so maybe Hophtrig can understand. But this still makes Hophtrig sad. Then again, Hophtrig is in the confused club, and doesn't really know much of what's going on. But Hophtrig will vote for the liar. Can Hophtrig please try some of that rum punch, so long as it doesn't involve hurty fisty punching?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
[cross posted. Ha ha. This was in response to Joostein. But now other voices have posted, so I can swing again and feel reassured.]
It is really annoying that everyone sounds So Damn Convincing. I find myself swinging like a weathervane, inclined to believe whoever I've heard from last.
I wonder what I said that got people to thinking I'm innocent? Not so long ago everyone was all "ooh, Ios, not sure of her, hard to read."
[ 19. March 2014, 04:21: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Ios, you are Hophtrig's friend. Hophtrig likes hearing Ios' voice, and Hophtrig likes the way Hophtrig's friend Ios talks about what Ios is thinking, even though Ios is in the confused club. Hophtrig wants Ios to have this, the softest, fluffiest piece of seat stuffing Hophtrig can find.
Hophtrig is suspicious of Otto because Otto does not explain what the Feather Boa Constrictor is telling him to do. But Hophtrig is definitely more suspicious of the liar than he is of Otto.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Zapaterietxe, how were your suspicions against me put to rest? (Or hold off until after this bus tour and we meet in heaven, if you think telling now might reveal something to the Possessed.)
I see you are familiar with Tommy A and his writings.... Oh, you were there and helped guide him in his writings? That must have been great fun.
Oh, of course it was enjoyable—and why do you think they called him the Angelic Doctor, anyway? You'd have to be a being immune to hand cramps to keep writing at his pace, though—and one immune to eye strain to read his handwriting. Still, better than when I was Hegel's assistant, that's for sure.
Why do I think you innocent, when before I was uncertain? Perhaps it's because I backed off, let you have room to argue, saw you try to grapple with an obvious lie, and saw your confusion as you, John, and the rest of the bus tried to understand it—but saw you keep trying. Were you Possessed, it seems likely that you'd either not be confused, since it'd be your strategy; you might even agree with it, and try to win other passengers over! Instead, you tried to pick through it, trying your best to reconcile your core beliefs with what you were being told was true, and couldn't do it. A liar, or one in on the lie, could—there'd be nothing to reconcile, as they'd know it was a lie, and could deal with it that way!
So perhaps it's an intuitive response, based on observation. Perhaps it's just because I think you give good, honest responses when questioned, rather than trying to dodge. Perhaps it's because, rather than accepting that I thought you innocent, you asked me why I thought that—you still want me to talk, to reveal things, to show what I'm thinking, to work against the Possessed and show any inconsistencies in my processes that might harm us. That's not something you'd do if you were Possessed, and already knew I wasn't one of you. Rather than take something that went in your favor without questioning, you kept poking, asking why I came to that decision, making sure I wasn't simply laying another snare; if you claim to work only on core beliefs, rather than logic, then I'd say stay with them—they're working for you.
As for why I thought you uncertain and perhaps unreadable: that was yesterday, before I'd seen you working like you have earlier today. I've had quite a bit more to work with now—and more evidence can give me more certain judgments.
[ 19. March 2014, 04:27: Message edited by: Ariston ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
[cross posted with Zapaterietxe.]
Here's an idea. If I believe Zapaterietxe, which right now I do, but I have residual doubts about Eliabulon, which I also do, then I can satisfy both inclinations by voting to lynch Eliabulon today and Joostein tomorrow. But does that risk putting us too many innocents down to get one more Possessed or Sympathizer after that? It has the merit (I think) that if Eliabulon and Joostein turn out to both be innocent, then Zapaterietxe does seem like a very obvious choice for the next guilty being to go after on day three.
Zapaterietxe, Eliabulon, Joostein, what would be wrong with this plan?
Or all of us could just be chasing our own tails and the truth about who is Possessed is far less baroque.
Why, why, why am I addicted to playing with logic? I know I suck at psychology. And that my intuitions, no matter how brilliant I think them, are as likely to be wrong as right. And there's always so much conflicting information that my logic is not sufficient to deal with it. So why can't I resign myself to certain death with the rest of the innocents, and place a vote that will amuse me, or be aesthetically satisfying, or is simply chosen with the use of a dart board?
Hophtrig, thank you for the nice piece of fluff.
Perhaps I should return to the principle I used as part of my criterion in the Reppik vote: whose death, even if innocent, will give us the most information? I am afraid that an innocent Joostein's death tells me nothing. And even a guilty Joostein's death tells me nothing, because I will be unsure if Eliabulon is innocent, or if E and J are both baddies playing a gigantic game of Batshit Crazy Multiple Bluff. On the other hand, an innocent Eliabulon's death will tell me a lot. (And if Joostein does turn out to be innocent in the next day's predetermined lynching, then on Joostein's own misguided head be the guilt for perhaps dooming the innocents.)
I think this makes sense. (I'm waiting now for the terrifying angel Z to arrive and demolish every inch of my thoughts until I am quivering under just this piece of fluff as protection.)
I expect, alas, to continue waffling for quite a while. I know this stands in the way of determining whether we have a united coalition of innocents who at least will avoid a split vote.
[ 19. March 2014, 04:54: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Ios,
It does not matter to me who goes first of me and Eliabulon, because if I know that Eliabulon goes down, I know that we shall win. I think you're right to consider the information aspect, but Zapa shall soon come around (written at 6:57 GMT in case of cross-post) with a long-winded post with a few arguments for why they are wrong.
Most likely along the lines that since I am a proven liar, I am the best one to send out first. Not sure why.
He might also write that I am one of either an evil genius or a stupid possessed, sacrificing myself at the worst of times. Look at my timing though. We have 3 turns left of sacrificing potentially innocents, which is the longest we'll ever have. Getting a real doctor on the field would clear at least one person, meaning we only needed to cut down the possessed by one. It would be useless for an evil one to do this at this point. And if I am an evil genius, why would I go for something as simple as falsely declaring, as Eliabulon pointed out was foolish.
They are keeping you thrown between thinking that I am an evil genius and stupid - but I can't be both at the same time. Their arguments are inconsistent. I say this not to avoid getting lynched today, but so that tomorrow you can be stronger in the convictions of taking either of Zapa and Eliabulon out.
I may make a colossal mistake, but I am making it at the one time when we can afford a colossal mistake. They are claiming that we cannot or should not risk it, when we actually can. Look at who's acting on your fears.
[ 19. March 2014, 05:05: Message edited by: JFH ]
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey thought of a mini bar on wheels, pulled it out of her pouch and sent it down the aisle towards the cage at the back.
Ios sounded like she could use a good stiff drink. Hophtrig too, as he was still on death row.
So many words of so little substance. She settled back with a Goulburn stubby to wait for the next set of verbal fireworks. So far, it had been spectacular.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
How about a friendly angel sitting on your armrest, nice and short, and not destroying anything?
I'd call it a good plan, except for one thing: I'd want the lying Joostein lynched first, and no pre-determining who gets lynched each day. To be honest, if Joostein's guilty, it would almost implicate Eliabulon more—those arguments and this strategy reek of her tactics, tricks she know she can't use because I'd watch for them coming from her—but, what I'm seeing right now from him resembles how the publican Hugh was almost killed—and the doctor Andrew actually was—in the Shipbury story so much that I can't believe it's entirely coincidence. Go after someone who yesterday was universally thought to be innocent, find any way you can to knock 'em off; it's going to look absurd if you try to do it subtly, someone will catch the small error, so go for broke, confuse the logic-choppers, leave people sputtering and defenseless, unable to respond to the absurdity by their usual methods.
We know for sure that Joostein has done a few things that are lynch-worthy: he's made a false role claim, thrown the bus into confusion, tried to get us to tamper with our voting mechanisms (remember how I semi-sarcastically suggested that I knew the Grafinn had to be innocent because nobody'd tried to do that?) and exposed our doctor. I would suggest that we not pre-determine our votes; by going through the usual process, we gain more information by talking, and give the Possessed more rope to hang themselves with. If I'd been asked to vote last night, after Reppik was pushed off by Lesley (I know you can't hear me, Lesley, but thank you!), I'd have wanted Choey off the bus, and wanted her off now. Given what's happened so far today, I'm glad I'm voting based on the information I have now, with what I've seen this morning.
Making people vote, or commit to a vote, or commit to any other course of action, without a chance to deliberate, to debate, to share information, and let the Possessed make errors, is a perfect strategy for the Possessed. I would advise that we work day by day, examine facts as they present themselves, and commit to no course of action suggested by a known liar, a sower of confusion, and suspected Possessed.
As for why you try logic: it's fun, innit? And I don't think you're half as bad at it as you think you are.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Maths:
Today, we are 11. Tomorrow, 9. The day after, 7. There are two possessed, but given that we have a sympathiser, on the 4th day they will have a majority if we do not catch one of them. If we catch one of them, then we have one more day to find the sympathiser or the last possessed, out of 5 people.
If I am guilty, there are four days to take me out, which you will. And then all you need to do is spot the rest of the possessed among the others.
If I am mistaken, then we have to find a possessed among the following people in two days from now:
John (cleared), Zapa, Codine, Otto, Hophtrig, Choey, Ios, Ja'ayem and Daisy.
Of these, two innocents will be dead. I suspect Ios will be first to go, and then possibly Ja'ayem or Daisy.
So you need to find one of three possessed/sympathisers out of the following:
John (cleared), Zapa, Codine, Otto, Hophtrig, Choey, Daisy/Ja'ayem.
You will have voting patterns, voices and awareness of the allegiances of both me and Eliabulon, which should enable you to re-read the conversations in many interesting ways. I am totally up for it and think you guys have what it takes.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
To emphasize:
4 days (if I am guilty) with an exposed, cleared doctor is more than we'll ever have in these kind of situations. 4 whole days with one trustworthy person in the aftermath of two sheriffs being taken out.
I don't think I exposed him in any way. He is out of the woodwork at the right time. How could I have hurt him through my actions, Zapa has yet to explain. Especially since John would have been the victim next night anyway, being the cleared one. Instead I may have saved him since he is now compelled to defend himself.
Four days of discussion and voting patterns.
Four days.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
Ios,
It does not matter to me who goes first of me and Eliabulon, because if I know that Eliabulon goes down, I know that we shall win. I think you're right to consider the information aspect, but Zapa shall soon come around (written at 6:57 GMT in case of cross-post) with a long-winded post with a few arguments for why they are wrong.
Most likely along the lines that since I am a proven liar, I am the best one to send out first. Not sure why.
He might also write that I am one of either an evil genius or a stupid possessed, sacrificing myself at the worst of times. Look at my timing though. We have 3 turns left of sacrificing potentially innocents, which is the longest we'll ever have. Getting a real doctor on the field would clear at least one person, meaning we only needed to cut down the possessed by one. It would be useless for an evil one to do this at this point. And if I am an evil genius, why would I go for something as simple as falsely declaring, as Eliabulon pointed out was foolish.
They are keeping you thrown between thinking that I am an evil genius and stupid - but I can't be both at the same time. Their arguments are inconsistent. I say this not to avoid getting lynched today, but so that tomorrow you can be stronger in the convictions of taking either of Zapa and Eliabulon out.
I may make a colossal mistake, but I am making it at the one time when we can afford a colossal mistake. They are claiming that we cannot or should not risk it, when we actually can. Look at who's acting on your fears.
First, I destroyed your translator.
Second, good work poisoning the well. If I respond, I'm suspicious. If I don't, we should take it as sign of my suspicion.
Third, when have I called you stupid? That's your doing, not mine. That your line of attack seems to be drawn from the one you accuse? That's not stupidity.
Fourth, if you claim to not see why lying, exposing our doctor, trying to force people to commit to votes early before they can gather more information, and the rest of the litany that you have not responded to are reasons to think you guilty, then you're an even bigger liar.
Fifth, when have I said anything about you "sacrificing yourself at the worst of times?" That's all you! I don't even think of it as you sacrificing yourself—I prefer to think of it as us throwing you out, and at the best of possible times, right now! You're making claims for me, anticipating things I've never said, and am not saying, making your version of me into your puppet.
Sixth, who is "us?" Is this like how Reppik claimed that he had a night action that could help "us" win—and, true enough, he did! It's just that "us" included him and the rest of the Possessed. It's almost as if you meant that message to go to your Possessed cohort—yes, it is the last chance you have to make a mistake, because there were six of us who had voiced their suspicions of you, you were caught, you create a massive distraction/diversion/shitstorm, and look what happened. So, for once, you may be honest—you could be sacrificing yourself—but the "us" for whom you are working is different between the innocents and you Possessed.
Stop the handwaving. Face the accusations. You have lied. You have betrayed us. You must die.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
[cross posted since Z sat down on the arm of my chair. I see now he has gotten up and is jousting up and down the bus aisle with J.]
Thank you, Zapaterietxe, that was very kind. I shall reflect on this. I need to work through the quotidian Sleep challenge in my game of Real Lyfe -- (yes, yes, I know, I've left it very late to start on it) -- so that will explain where I've vanished to for awhile after posting so manically recently.
Oh, no, Hophtrig, no need to turn down the hologram volume while I'm working on this Real Lyfe challenge. I won't be distracted. Really, they're so easy I could solve them in my sleep.
Choey, thank you for the minibar. Ooh, what's this one at the back? It looks very old. W.. H.. I.. ... Why, it's Whiskey! Does that mean whiskey was a drink, then, not a dance? Do you have any tango or foxtrot to go with it? How strange that I thought that they were all three dances, when in fact they're all three drinks. Well, this is clearly too old and valuable to drink. Hmm, what else do we have here? Aaah, here's a little teapot labeled "Long Island Ice Tea." I think I'll have some of that. A nice herbal preparation and no chance of waking up with a hangover.
[ 19. March 2014, 05:31: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
I don't think I exposed him in any way. He is out of the woodwork at the right time. How could I have hurt him through my actions, Zapa has yet to explain. Especially since John would have been the victim next night anyway, being the cleared one. Instead I may have saved him since he is now compelled to defend himself.
Ah. So you reveal your plan, Possessed One. How do you know that John was next? Why not me, who lead the charge against one of your number, and seems to be closing in on another?
Tell me, if I'm in league with the Grafinn and Reppik, explain why I was so eager to destroy the planeshifter. Explain our voting patterns. Tell me why I fed Reppik to the mob, and not Eliabulon. Tell me why I was so unsubtle as to publicly align myself with the Grafinn. Tell me why I'm wrong. Deduce it from the evidence. Present a case that my infinitely sharp razor cannot destroy.
Do not handwave, do not point to your supposed plan. Answer me. Make the case for why I am guilty.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Thank you, Zapaterietxe, that was very kind. I shall reflect on this. I need to work through the quotidian Sleep challenge in my game of Real Lyfe -- (yes, yes, I know, I've left it very late to start on it) -- so that will explain where I've vanished to for awhile after posting so manically recently.
Oh, no, Hophtrig, no need to turn down the hologram volume while I'm working on this Real Lyfe challenge. I won't be distracted. Really, they're so easy I could solve them in my sleep.
Choey, thank you for the minibar. Ooh, what's this one at the back? It looks very old. W.. H.. I.. ... Why, it's Whiskey! Does that mean whiskey was a drink, then, not a dance? Do you have any tango or foxtrot to go with it? How strange that I thought that they were all three dances, when in fact they're all three drinks. Well, this is clearly too old and valuable to drink. Hmm, what else do we have here? Aaah, here's a little teapot labeled "Long Island Ice Tea." I think I'll have some of that. A nice herbal preparation and no chance of waking up with a hangover.
Z. does one last good deed for the day: merging his consciousness with the alcohol in the LIT and neutralizing it, saving Ios from a rather nasty surprise tomorrow. He supposes he's failing the RLC too, but boy, this is getting exciting!
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Joostein, why would John be the victim? Being the cleared one, it might seem obvious that the doctor should protect John. And how fortunate, as things turn out, that the doctor can self-protect.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
It was known from the beginning that the doctor could self-protect. As the cleared one, John was a likely victim. The doctor I assumed would protect himself, probably because that's the way I'd reason if I were the doctor myself. John and another doctor sure would not both last for four days, though.
But frankly, you have seen the frenzy of Zapa. Over what? My wish to see Eliabulon in a grave tomorrow provided that I'm innocent? The assumption that since one of the possessed is a top thinker, all of us accused of being such minds should be taken out, starting with myself?
Consider that offer - Eliabulon or Zapa on the third day, provided that I'm innocent. It's not a high price. If you find another guilty person in between, this falls. They have yet to respond to this with other things than "Insanity! Don't trust the liar!"
Look at all those posts of Zapa, when I have myself offered to go first into death - accusing me of being guilty in three long posts. Why? Why would I be guilty for showing my innocence and offering him to do the same two days after if I'm really innocent? Why this strong reaction?
As for a waterproof story that cannot be contradicted, nobody can produce such things in a game like this, where anything could be double-bluffed. What I'm wondering is why you do not dare to agree to a game of calling one another's bluffs. You could leave Eliabulon in the game, or if you want, kill him now to check both of us. It's not that expensive for the innocents to lose a single member. Remember those four days?
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Frankly, at this point I have only one thing to say, and I'm sorry Ios but I think it might eff up your brain again.
I will not contend that I am guilty and possessed and I should be voted off.
What I will contend is the logics that since I am guilty, you should not listen to when I say that if I am later on proven innocent, you should make sure to re-read my words and take out those in a frenzy to throw me off.
If I am proven innocent, I am at that point more trustworthy than any of you save John, and you'd do well to consider my logics. If someone shouts "lynch him!" to shut me up while trying to say that, I will say that you should strongly consider making sure to take that person out if I prove to be innocent.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
Oh dear. Aren't you just the most precious hand-waving troll ev-ah! I ask for a deductive case associating me with both Reppik and Eliabulon, and what do I get? Accusations of being frenzied by one who has been talking just as much by me? Discussion of the same "four days" trope over and over again? You think that's why I want you gone? Frankly, I think it sounds just like something Eliabulon would propose—the same "sacrifice this person, we'll be safe" strategy I've seen her ancestors use.
In fact, I'm beginning to suspect one of two things: either you've been pouring over the transcripts obsessively and learning her tactics, including the "we'll be safe in four days" trope the New Age hippie freak used in Australia, ditto the ship's barber on the High Seas…well, it's classic. If you two aren't working together, you've certainly learned how to sound just like her.
Also, I ask you again, in my "frenzied" way: where is your evidence I'm working with Eliabulon and Reppik?
You ask us to believe you now, when you've betrayed us. Yes, I keep bringing it up—because it's important. I also keep bringing up your repeated well-poisoning—because you keep doing it. I keep mentioning your supposed "noble sacrifice" and attempts to game the vote system—because it puts those of us who look for information at a disadvantage.
So, frenzied one, and Disciple of Eliabulon: make your case for exactly how you can deduce that I worked with Reppik, something you continue to dodge, and continue to work with Eliabulon. Deduce that from the evidence. Determine it from how we voted.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
In fact, the more I try to play this Riel Lyfe Sliip game that Ios told me about, the more I realize something: the best piece of evidence you might produce that the Grafinn and I are collaborating are my statements telling people not to try to drive a wedge between us because, after all, she hasn't tried anything weird yet. If I were the Grafinn, I'd read that like this:
The only reason Zapaterietxe doesn't suspect you is because you haven't tried anything weird yet.
And so, she knows not to. Now, let's be honest: what you're trying here is exactly the kind of thing I was watching for. Blatant lying. False role claims. Vague promises about "four days." Repeated statements leading to a bold conclusion, like you're making an argument in court. Ignoring inconvenient questions, but knowing exactly what kinds of logical fallacies work best—well-poisoning to preempt attacks, accusations of being long-winded to imply that you shouldn't pay attention to what your accuser is saying—and, for whatever unfounded reason, claiming that you and Eliabulon can't be working for the same side.
If I've effectively shut down Eliabulon from using her usual bag of tricks, that doesn't mean you can't use them—and working together, using their ability to communicate in secret, is exactly what I'd expect the Possessed to do if they wanted to stay alive. So of course, if you two are both Possessed, it's no wonder you sound so much like what I'd expect her to sound like when cornered.
Would somebody mind clarifying exactly why these two can't be working together? While I think we should vote Joostein off the bus first—it's possible he's just a very good student of the Eliabi Clan, rather than also Eliabulon's partner—I have an idea of who someone might want to nominate tomorrow. That hat is looking tastier and tastier by the moment.
And, now that I review the voting record, things begin to make a bit more sense that you two, who could both be read by the investigators, would run a "public split and bluff" strategy, while letting Reppik run interference—and hopefully quell the early information sharing strategy I started. It's interesting that you nominated Eliabulon the first round, but did not vote for him; E. nominated you, and, along with two others, voted for you. You split the vote, as the guilty are generally presumed to do, 2 for TESS, 1 for Joostein. The next day, he voted for Reppik (perhaps, on this hypothesis, he saw where the vote was headed before I was completely confident of it), you vote for Otto, Reppik, unsurprisingly, votes TESS. The vote is split evenly three ways; you've lost your unreadable, which is a loss, given that you have been practicing a bluff strategy. However, if you can convince us that if one of you is guilty, the other one is not, you're home free; the Grafinn knows I'm being paranoid and watching her for any suspicious behavior, so you do the crazy stuff—false role claim, divert, hand wave, courtroom argument, well poison, long-winded ad homenem, 4 days, vote manipulation, gaming the rules, all the old Eliabi classics. You never know what you're going to see from one of them, just that it's going to be good.
So it's a theory. Either you're a really good student of her clan's methods, or you have The Mistress herself as a partner. I'm giving it 50/50 odds between the two right now—and either way, you're guilty.
Oh, and need I remind you: your translator's done blew up. Your normal speech patterns should be returning shortly.
[ 19. March 2014, 07:01: Message edited by: Ariston ]
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
Maths:
Today, we are 11. Tomorrow, 9. The day after, 7. There are two possessed, but given that we have a sympathiser, on the 4th day they will have a majority if we do not catch one of them....
If I am guilty, there are four days to take me out, which you will. And then all you need to do is spot the rest of the possessed among the others.
There's a fencepost error here, I believe.
On the fourth day the mafia has won (if...) hence we have 3 days.
Mind you mistakes are depressingly easy to make. So it definitely doesn't mean it's deliberate.
Zappa's Theory above would make a lot of sense if there were 3 true mafia now.
I'm not too sure about the case where there's one killing mafia and one sympathizer (who they may not know) it's still a good place to be, but enough to die for, not so sure?
If one of them is the sympathizer things make a bit more sense, but then the mafia member doesn't know what's happening (though is in a better position to guess).
[ 19. March 2014, 07:14: Message edited by: Jay-Emm ]
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig likes knowing things.
Hophtrig likes simple things, Hophtrig is one.
Hophtrig will listen to the known innocent.
Hophtrig will vote for the known liar today.
Hophtrig will think about the best move when he knows more about the liar.
Hophtrig still hasn't quite figured out the question for 42, any ideas Zapaterietxe?
Hophtrig likes the drinks cart! Thanks Choey, so many interesting liquids to mix together, fun to play with.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Alright, I confess. I did lie to you all. I've been playing a silly game all along and had to resort to the doctor's card. There's little reason to say more things now that the truth is out.
You will find out in a few hours, and until then, you can all neglect what I'm saying. Let's not knock off Eliabulon, but all go for me instead. I shall place my own vote for me as soon as I can, about 4 hours after the voting has opened, and it is imperative that you all do so as well. There will be some complaints that that does not reveal the nature of the voters, but you'll have to give it to me, being a possessed who stands up and confesses like this.
ON NO CONDITIONS, BE YOU CONVINCED OF MY INNOCENCE OR NOT, MAY YOU VOTE ON ANYONE BUT ME.
This means that there is no risk for my words being used to put anyone else overboard in order to defend myself. As such, you can from now on ignore them, as it will soon be revealed that I am a nasty killer, guilty as the night, and of general bad smell. Should it be that I am somehow lying right now, it will be odd that someone knew and felt they had to defend themselves against my words or accusations. For all you know, especially if I have accused you, I am evil and that is soon about to be revealed.
I may post one or two posts, but given that you are all going to vote me off and see my guilt, they are irrelevant to read until judgment day, when my sins shall be washed clean and my innocence restored.
I repeat:
ON NO CONDITIONS, BE YOU CONVINCED OF MY INNOCENCE OR NOT, MAY YOU VOTE ON ANYONE BUT ME.
If you feel accused by me, rest assured that you shall soon be justified by my demise and identification. If you feel a need to defend yourself, please do so only having proven that I am innocent, or providing very good reasons to do that.
Thanks everyone! Sleep well, Ios!
[ 19. March 2014, 08:50: Message edited by: JFH ]
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Ja'ayem, I was counting biblically, thus including this day as one where we could afford to make a mistake. Given that I am guilty, this will be extended to 4 days when I am voted off.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
John, promise me this.
I'm promising you nothing. I do not trust you. I do not trust Eliabulon. I think you're possibly both guilty. I'm still unhappy about the way I was worked by one or both of you.
quote:
They fester on confusion - such as Zapa's warning for a doctor not to step out.
Interestingly, I was doing just fine, thank you, until you came along this morning and screwed everything up. My world was quite clear.
This next bit is all on me. I should have kept my big mouth shut about the doctor thing. You're wrong on that count, and so is Eliabulon. If I had stayed silent, I would be a hell of a lot more effective than I am now. As it is, I'll be self-protecting, but that means that I can't protect Zapaterietxe or Ios So no, I'm not buying it.
But, I share one thing with what you've written (assuming you're not lying again): I don't trust Eliabulon. And since you're doing exactly what I was expecting her to do, the old Eliabulon tricks and moves, I natually suspect her as well. But I'm not worried about that. I'm worried about you. Have you taken your radiation sickness medicine? Have you notified your next of kin?
I salute you. You managed to get inside my head and mess my thinking all up. I let you do it, but that's beside the point. But no more.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
John, I believe this has all changed now that I have confessed to be evil and asked everyone to vote for me.
After some thought, however, if you would all entertain a dying villain, could you all make sure to vote as late as possible instead of as early? I want to make some mad ramblings that do not need to be contradicted as my villainness will be proven when votes close and I am righteously executed.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Okay. I was doing just fine until I changed tactics. Zapateriexte went quiet and I decided to try my hand at leadership, and I did a crap job of it. So I'm going back to my analyst role. While I'm no where near as good as the veteran players, it is my best ability.
Ios has made it to the hallowed Inner Sanctum of the Completely Cleared. I am a member, as well as the ghosts of Lesley, Crimson, and Celandine.
The Outer Sanctum sees a bit more traffic as I upgrade and downgrade various ones as we go along. Zapaterietxe makes a triumphant return, after having fallen out for no good reason. Codine finds himself here for the first time, joining longtime resident Ja'ayem. Hophtrig also makes an appearance.
The Court of the Neither Trusted Nor Untrusted is where we find such diverse personages as Daisy the Ever Quiet and Absent and Choey the Hungry One.
Out in the Temple of the Great Unwashed, we find these three remain: Joostein, Eliabulon, and Otto. But the stinkiest of these is Joostein.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
John, I believe this has all changed now that I have confessed to be evil and asked everyone to vote for me.
After some thought, however, if you would all entertain a dying villain, could you all make sure to vote as late as possible instead of as early? I want to make some mad ramblings that do not need to be contradicted as my villainness will be proven when votes close and I am righteously executed.
I don't think you quite grasp the profound depths of mistrust and suspicion I feel about you at the moment. I don't know whether you're trying one last bluff to get a bunch of early votes, or if you really do think I and others will vote late just to humor you. I think you have something up your sleeve that I won't like very much, and I don't like you trying to manipulate the vote.
If we could get it over and done with sooner rather than later, I'd be just as happy. Maybe then we could get it put behind us. But I'm not going to rush justice, and I sure as heck am not going to intentionally play into whatever mad scheme you've got cooked up.
I'll vote when I damn well please, thank you.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ja'ayem:
There's a fencepost error here, I believe.
Ja'ayem! You know about fencepost errors! I love you! Do you know how many people look at Ios cross-eyed when she mentions fencepost errors?!
Joostein, I don't understand the insistence on nobody voting before you.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
It's ok, John. I think I shall be able to hold up the vote myself from ending prematurely.
However, there is a key factor that could become of interest:
If my death can be guaranteed, whether I am guilty (as I profess) or not, there is little need for me to try to defend myself. This means that all the things I say about various groups will be tried not based on whether I am evil or not, but on what they actually say. This is because I could not wring my way out of it even if I wanted to. And I like that spot, because then I can speak without the people most worried and most certain that I am evil (Eliabulon, Zapa and possibly Codine) having to counter my arguments[b]. If I am evil, as they know, then my words will be disregarded faster than Sleipner's hooves and Mjølnir's lightnings once it becomes confirmed.
There is no way I can fool you if my bluff is guaranteed checked, but thus no need for countermeasures. My arguments will stand unresponded to, but also not drowned in a potential sea of "logic", disinformation and lies, should they (bizarrely) be true.
The way I'm thinking of it now, is to ask you all to pledge your votes for me, and then I shall present my opinions on the current situation, "as if I was innocent". Anyone who vehemently counterattacks should be considered to have a reason to, because they have information that I will be proven not to be lying my ass off.
I'm [b]specifically not asking you to let me off. In fact, do vote early. What I'm saying is consider my words. After presenting my take on it - there's not much else going to be going on in the two days from voting to closing votes when the victim is designated - I will discuss the matter if presented questions or theories to respond to, as well as constructive criticism. I will not respond to Eliabulon or Zapa, because they shall soon be presented to be innocent as they called me out before for being evil. I want a constructive environment during my last hours on this bus - but only once I'm assured that they really are my last hours.
The key is in that I will not be defending anything, as I am evil and lying and you shall know it. That bit, and all counterarguments based on that claim, can be disregarded. And you will see that I'm lying my teeth off once I'm dead and my guilt is declared for certain.
How does that sound, John?
I won't be responding to questions from Zapa, Eliabulon or Codine, but if their questions are taken up by other members in the audience, they shall be given answers.
In fact, you can't stop me. But this is what I intend to do, and I will try my best to be brief, to the point and accurate, and also not start until a decent nurning. You, Ios, Ja'ayem and Choey are bright enough to do so.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Ok, could an admin please remove that last post that got messed up while sending. I shall instead post this in two parts.
Part 1:
It's ok, John. I think I shall be able to hold up the vote myself from ending prematurely.
However, there is a key factor that could become of interest:
If my death can be guaranteed, whether I am guilty (as I profess) or not, there is little need for me to try to defend myself. This means that all the things I say about various groups will be tried not based on whether I am evil or not, but on what they actually say. This is because I could not wring my way out of it even if I wanted to. And I like that spot, because then I can speak without the people most worried and most certain that I am evil (Eliabulon, Zapa and possibly Codine) having to counter my arguments. If I am evil, as they know, then my words will be disregarded faster than Sleipner's hooves and Mjølnir's lightnings once it becomes confirmed.
There is no way I can fool you if my bluff is guaranteed checked, but thus no need for countermeasures. My arguments will stand unresponded to, but also not drowned in a potential sea of "logic", disinformation and lies, should they (bizarrely) be true.
The way I'm thinking of it now, is to ask you all to pledge your votes for me, and then I shall present my opinions on the current situation, "as if I was innocent". Anyone who vehemently counterattacks should be considered to have a reason to, because they have information that I will be proven not to be lying my ass off.
[ 19. March 2014, 11:48: Message edited by: JFH ]
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Part 2
I'm specifically not asking you to let me off. In fact, do vote early. What I'm saying is consider my words. After presenting my take on it - there's not much else going to be going on in the two days from voting to closing votes when the victim is designated - I will discuss the matter if presented questions or theories to respond to, as well as constructive criticism. I will not respond to Eliabulon or Zapa, because they shall soon be presented to be innocent as they called me out just now for being evil. I want a constructive environment during my last hours on this bus - but only once I'm assured that they really are my last hours.
The key is in that I will not be defending anything, as I am evil and lying and you shall know it. That bit, and all counterarguments based on that claim, can be disregarded. And you will see that I'm lying my teeth off once I'm dead and my guilt is declared for certain.
How does that sound, John?
I won't be responding to questions from Zapa, Eliabulon or Codine, but if their questions are taken up by other members in the audience, they shall be given answers.
In fact, you can't stop me. But this is what I intend to do, and I will try my best to be brief, to the point and accurate, and also not start until a decent number of votes have been raised against me, so please vote early, and vote to ensure my demise. (I probably just sent a message to the sympathiser, but yeah, you can deal with that in the morning. You, Ios, Ja'ayem and Choey are bright enough to do so.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Considering I got myself in trouble yesterday by being too involved, I think I'm going to go hog hunting. I may go scout turkeys, too.
Peace out, yo.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
There's not that much more that could go wrong at this point. You can read that one of two ways. However, you're the cleared one and the only one known not to be talking out of your arse. Stick around and add your comments.
Question: If I, against my own confessions, possessions and obsessions, should turn out to be innocent once I'm dead, what's your take on Eliabulon and Zapa?
[ 19. March 2014, 12:02: Message edited by: JFH ]
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
I won't be responding to questions from Zapa, Eliabulon or Codine, but if their questions are taken up by other members in the audience, they shall be given answers.
Somevun may like to ask zese qvestions if Joostein vishes to ignore me:
Joostein – ven you lied und claimed to be ze doctor vat vould you have done if:
1) I had been ze real doctor? I am not, but you could not have been certain of zat. You vould have said it vas a false claim, made in desperation, vould you not, und tried to have me ejected?
2) Ze real doctor vas somevun who, at ze time, had been under suspicion by ozers – Otto or Choey, say? Vould you not have accused zem of being my accomplices und making a false claim to defend me? Und tried to have zem evicted?
3) Ze real doctor vas somevun who had not voted for Reppic – such as Ja’ayem or Hophtrig? Vould you not have used zat as a reason to doubt zeir claim und assert your own? Und tried to have zem evicted?
4) Ze real doctor vas somevun who had been qviet – meaning Daisy? Vould you not have accused zem of breaking silence to evict you, ze pretended doctor? Und tried to have zem evicted?
5) Ze real doctor had been somevun active but either trusted or at least not openly suspected at ze time – Ios, Codine or Zapaterietxe? I think you have speculated zat any of zese might be my accomplice in evil – vould you not have done zat on ze basis zat zey vere lying about zeir role as vell? Und tried to have zem evicted?
6) Und is it not likely, zat in ze first 4 cases at least, you vould have had a very good chance of succeeding in making ze rest of us doubt ze real doctor und evict zem?
7) So, though you did not know who ze doctor vas, in nine cases out of ten, you vould have doubted ze vord of ze real doctor, und in six cases out of ten, likely killed our vun remaining specialist?
You vould not have made ze claim t all if zere vere not people against whom you vere villing to maintain it. I have no doubt at all zat you vould have maintained it against me, if I vere the doctor, or against anyvun you could plausibly say vas vorking vith me. Und zat is at least six ozers, possibly nine*.
Ve vere lucky zat John is ze doctor. If it had been anyvun else, zey vould probably have been killed.
(*Of course of zose nine, you knew zat vun or two vere not ze doctor, because depending on vether you are a killer or a sympathiser, you know ze names of vun or two ozer Possessed. But I do not know vich zese are, so I assume zat for all you knew to ze contrary, ven you claimed, ze real doctor might have been any of us).
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Joostein, here's what's bizarre. Well, many things are bizarre, but here's the bizarre thing that I've thought of after a nice time ignoring the events in the bus while solving the Real Lyfe Sleep challenge.
What's bizarre is this. (Well, many things are bizarre, but this one cuts to the core of the matter for me.) Suppose you're innocent. At some point today, after Eliabulon nominated you, you thought: "uh-oh, I'm never going to convince people today; I'm going to be lynched." The surest way to convince me that Eliabulon was a baddie and should be lynched the day after we (mistakenly) lynched you, was for you to simply continue to assert that you were innocent and that Eliabulon's campaign against you demonstrated his guilt. Then trust that the rest of us innocents would see the logic of that, and that we would lynch Eliabulon on the next day.
But instead you launched this incredible campaign starting with the false claim that you were the doctor. Perhaps you are innocent. Perhaps it started as an innocent little lie. Perhaps, greedily, you thought "if I claim to be the doctor, that will really convince people that Eliabulon is guilty and we can lynch her this round instead of next." Then you were caught in your lie, and have been thrashing ever since, innocent but trying to salvage something by being sure Eliabulon will be executed sometime. Or perhaps you're guilty, and this is all a devious Eliabulon-inspired game of -- well not Bluff, but of Batshit Crazy Confuse Everyone Till They Jump Out the Airlock Themselves Just To Get Away From It.
So if, assuming you're innocent, you had just played the simple game and nobly continued to assert your innocence, you would have very likely achieved what you say you're trying to achieve now: your death today, Eliabulon's death tomorrow.
But no, you went the Batshit Crazy route, and now you have no control over anything that is going to happen tomorrow. You are very likely to get your wish today though: that you will be elected to make today's ritual attempt to recover our engine.
[cross-posted since Joostein's "post 2".]
[ 19. March 2014, 12:17: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Please do not discuss whether I am innocent or not. It is obvious that I am not, and I am not trying to create a defence line, nor do I wish anyone else to draw one for me.
As for the Grafinn's questions, what's good about having them go through someone else is that that person shall have to think about what they are really about - reassuring folks that I am not innocent, reassuring them that if innocent I am crazy (counter-question: who would benefit from that?), or about finding out what clues may come out of my death should I be innocent when I die?
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
As for the Grafinn's questions, what's good about having them go through someone else is that that person shall have to think about what they are really about - reassuring folks that I am not innocent, reassuring them that if innocent I am crazy (counter-question: who would benefit from that?), or about finding out what clues may come out of my death should I be innocent when I die?
Oh, definitely ze later. I already think you are guilty. I ask ze qvestions because I vould very much like to know who you say you vould not have maintained your false claim against, und vy.
I do not suppose for a moment zat you vill tell ze truth, but do I think zat I vill learn something from vichever line you choose to spin.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Joostein:
Question: If I, against my own confessions, possessions and obsessions, should turn out to be innocent once I'm dead, what's your take on Eliabulon and Zapa?
My take, if you turn out to be innocent, is that your mind works so differently from mine, that I can't make heads nor tails of anything you've said at any time, or decide if there's any substance to it, including about Eliabulon or Zapaterietxe, and I shall probably simply ignore everything you've said because it is uttered by someone who, while innocent, is also Batshit Crazy Insane.
I say "probably," because I really don't know. I'm not making any decisions about the future. I'm not trying to solve all the conundrums on this bus right now. I have identified the core bizarre thing about this, and it is that either you are guilty and playing Batshit Crazy Bluff, or you are innocent and Batshit Crazy Insane, because as I said, if you were innocent, I think you stood a much better chance of convincing people to do what you want -- Joostein today, Eliabulon tomorrow -- by not telling lies and by trusting us other Innocents to conclude Eliabulon's guilt by her campaign against you.
If you're innocent, what I shall conclude is that it's better for the innocents to be honest, and not to try Batshit Crazy mind games.
John, enjoy your turkey and hog hunting. Don't be hard on yourself. I think you made a noble effort in trying to find the baddies. I think when you come back from your hunting we should break out this bottle of Whiskey and all have a stiff drink. I'd offer you some of this Long Island Iced Tea, but despite being on the minibar it actually has not a drop of alcohol in it.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
The Outer Sanctum sees a bit more traffic as I upgrade and downgrade various ones as we go along. Zapaterietxe makes a triumphant return, after having fallen out for no good reason. Codine finds himself here for the first time, joining longtime resident Ja'ayem. Hophtrig also makes an appearance.
Codine smiles. I was just making drinks when I was whooshed here. Anyone want an old fashioned? It happens to be the only thing I had when I appeared.
Nothing practical to say except to agree strongly that we shouldn't plan too far ahead. I too was much more suspicious of Cho Bacca on the previous Dimthing day. If I had been bound to a plan to lynch her, I think it would have been a major mistake.
P.S. What's the point of ignoring someone because they are (or you think they are) Possessed?
[Crossposted with Ios, so perhaps the offer of drinks is more useful yet.]
[ 19. March 2014, 12:38: Message edited by: Gwai ]
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Crossposted with JFH and others too, in fact, so my PS has already been answered.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Gwai:
P.S. What's the point of ignoring someone because they are (or you think they are) Possessed?
Saving time and space, keeping folks's heads clear. I cannot convince their vote and as we have seen, those accused by me are experts at taking up space, except when they get seriously accused or confronted with an unexpected situation. Then their silence is conspicuous. And mostly those debates just become flame wars. If they are right, they shall be proven. Right now, Eliabulon for example is turning towards that I may be innocent, for she knows that it's best to place herself in the borderlands. It would be excellent for her if I was just insane.
Ios, I shall return to your questions following some votes. I can say that I did not think the situation quite what you describe it, and my faith in being able to outlogick Eliabulon and/or Zapa in front of an audience of regular busmates is very limited.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
And yet you provoked a situation in which we've all been running around trying to figure out, with logic, "wtf is going on here?" Are we more likely to believe Eliabulon is guilty because you make a crazy self-sacrifice against Eliabulon vs. if you had gone to your death more conventionally? I don't see it.
I can see that it might have made sense to you at the time (if you're in fact innocent.). It's definitely not how my mind works though, and I think ultimately it is just as likely to be harmful as helpful.
I expect to be voting you out the airlock today with a perfectly clear conscience.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
Right now, Eliabulon for example is turning towards that I may be innocent, for she knows that it's best to place herself in the borderlands.
Really I am not.
I am completely unconvinced by ze 'innocent but insane' explanation. My best guess is zat you are ze sympathiser. Zis is because ze sacrifice of ze sympathiser to expose ze special role of an innocent is a plausible move. Much more so zan an innocent trying zis, vich, basically, does not happen.
Zis is a pity as I vould rather have ze chance to evict a killer, but I think zat ven you are dead und ve know for sure, ve vill see who you tried to shield, und who you tried to convince, and be very much closer to finding ze primary villains.
On ze subject of vich - do you vish to answer my qvestions about vich of us you vould have had killed if zey vere ze doctor, or not?
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
Oh boy. Oh boy, oh boy, oh boy. All this hand-waving, waffling, and telling us that his accusers are being ignored has got me wondering: who are you trying to protect? What ELSE have you got to hide?
Oh, this is just priceless. First he calls me frenzied and long-winded, then he tries to restart his campaign of confusion as soon as I turn my back. Here, because you're translator's been broken, let me interpret what you've said, and what you've left unsaid:
quote:
If my death can be guaranteed, whether I am guilty (as I profess) or not, there is little need for me to try to defend myself…And I like that spot, because then I can speak without the people most worried and most certain that I am evil (Eliabulon, Zapa and possibly Codine) having to counter my arguments. My arguments will stand unresponded to, but also not drowned in a potential sea of "logic", disinformation and lies, should they (bizarrely) be true. Anyone who vehemently counterattacks should be considered to have a reason to, because they have information that I will be proven not to be lying my ass off.
Translation: "I'm not going to defend myself any more against inconvenient questions, especially from the people I can't answer and who are accusing me. What I say will go unchallenged, which is good, because what I say has some pretty serious problems I'd rather you just ignored and bought wholesale. And now, I'm going to poison the well, and preemptively cast doubt on anyone who counters what I say, so that people are less likely to respond to me."
quote:
I will not respond to Eliabulon or Zapa, because they shall soon be presented to be innocent as they called me out just now for being evil. I want a constructive environment during my last hours on this bus - but only once I'm assured that they really are my last hours. I won't be responding to questions from Zapa, Eliabulon or Codine, but if their questions are taken up by other members in the audience, they shall be given answers. This is what I intend to do, and I will try my best to be brief, to the point and accurate, and also not start until a decent number of votes have been raised against me, so please vote early, and vote to ensure my demise.
Translation: "I want to be fully in control of the situation once more. I've lost trust and credibility with you all, my attempts to confuse you have been foiled, and my lies have been revealed for what they are. Now that my last plain has failed, it's time to try another one, one that will still give me control of how voting happens, one that will suppress information that could be used against my cohort, one that will make things turn out how I want, and not necessarily how you want. You are not rational beings; you are my puppets, and you will do as I say. I won't directly speak with my accusers, and I want things done my way, talking done when and how I want it, with me back in control."
quote:
I cannot convince their vote and as we have seen, those accused by me are experts at taking up space, except when they get seriously accused or confronted with an unexpected situation. Then their silence is conspicuous. And mostly those debates just become flame wars.
"When pursuing a disruptive strategy, make sure to accuse your opponent of using it. That way, you think it's them being mean, and not me doing that exact thing."
I would also like to point out the big unanswered question that I keep asking, but keeps getting handwaved away, or pointedly ignored, or, I suspect, is at the root of the change in strategy. After all, if somebody is asking you some very uncomfortable questions, might it not be a good idea to try and squelch the questioning?
Joostein: once again, I ask you: how can you construct a coherent scenario, based on the evidence at hand, including voting records, in which Reppik Tew, Grafinn Eliabulon, and myself are the Possessed? How does this fit any of the observed facts? What evidence do you have, besides simple assertion, that Codine is the sympathizer? You have never responded to this question, and I'm beyond beginning to suspect you intend not to—because you can't.
Now I wonder who or what you're trying to protect by sacrificing. Wait, I already have been—but now it's blindingly obvious that, now that you've been caught, you're still trying to dictate the terms of being caught so that you can control what's revealed, what's suppressed, and what the course of events will be.
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on
:
A few fragmented algorithms are still dancing around the bus. One can be heard murmuring “This is the screwiest mafia game in the history of the world. I think I’m almost grateful you put me out of my misery so early on.”
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
A few fragmented algorithms are still dancing around the bus. One can be heard murmuring “This is the screwiest mafia game in the history of the world. I think I’m almost grateful you put me out of my misery so early on.”
Otto has found a flute rolling around in the aisle. He is talking to the FBC about who should play and who should dance. Or perhaps best it to go into the Hophtrig Hidey Hole and see who wants to play it there. Heads and spinning. Head will roll....
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Zapaterietxe, I was going to suggest that Joostein had learned to speak our language during the past few days, with the aid of the translator as training wheels, and that is why he did not revert back when you destroyed his translator. But I have to confess I lent him some holofilms from my course on TVAPWCBU, in particular of something called "U.S. Congress 2013-2014", and I fear that if he tried to learn our language from that, he may have absorbed some very misleading ideas about how our language works. But it seems that you have perhaps studied the U.S. Congress of that era, and learned how to translate into current standards of speech.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
A few fragmented algorithms are still dancing around the bus. One can be heard murmuring “This is the screwiest mafia game in the history of the world. I think I’m almost grateful you put me out of my misery so early on.”
"Almost"
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey had to admit Dimthing Tours were exciting. The shards of dancing algorithms were quite pretty, and she could hear snatches of flute playing in between the sounds of the FBC chugging down liquids from the mini-bar. Some of the passengers had become hysterical and then entered what appeared to be a new level of consciousness. John was dreaming he was out game hunting. The dark angel seemed to have materialized a soap box and was making enormously long speeches. Ios had, at last, recognized the insanity without and within and Joostein had been wrestling with everyone including his own character.
She wondered if some of them had found the roach Lesley had left behind, or was it just the xtonic radiation beginning to take effect? She opened a packet of mixed nuts and offered them around.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Thank you Choey.
Thank you for the music, Otto, Hophtrig is going to dance.
Hophtrig is almost grateful for the presence of one who obviously belongs off the bus.
Hophtrig is very sorry for his efforts to find the communicator's workings, Hophtrig suspects the bus may be leaking, Hophtrig's head is spinning a lot. Either it was that back wall, or it was those funny liquids Choey gave us to play with.
Either way, Hophtrig likes the simple goodbye to the liar.
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
Now I'm perplexed. I had just about come to the conclusion that if you were the doctor then a Graffin&John combo was the only possibility (in which case could go straight for Graffin).
You might be straight out guilty (with or without Graffin). But then at least you'd try saving yourself, even as a sympathizer you don't want to die for nothing (it might be better than giving stuff away). But then we'll know your role and be cautious.
The all guilty case I think we can be certain isn't the situation as else the real doctor would out himself and yes things would be messy, but the odds would be good for us.
But if innocent then what have you seen. A detective making this gamble makes a degree of sense...he knows what we don't and his death then tells us that he knew it. It's not a million miles from what I did in my first game as Dr*
So anything you've seen we must have been able to see. There might be some gamble but I can't see it so might inadvertently walk into it (and conversely the mafia are better placed and might avoid it) and the tighter we're railroaded the less that's going to play off. So you're hoping that your death persuades us you were sincere, but then what?
*But then the voting was almost over and Eliab had made a claim to be Dr and I knew I was Dr so it was more just me dying in control than having any effect (I can't remember if it worked). But in this game neither of you are claiming to be Dr.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
Now I'm perplexed. I had just about come to the conclusion that if you were the doctor then a Graffin&John combo was the only possibility (in which case could go straight for Graffin).
Otto and the FBC are finding dancing with Hophtrig agreeable about this. Hophtrig, perhaps you would like to play the flute?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ja'ayem, who is the "you" in what you are saying? I am not sure who you are talking about or to.
[ 19. March 2014, 18:07: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
I had just about come to the conclusion that if you were the doctor then a Graffin&John combo was the only possibility (in which case could go straight for Graffin).
Whoever you're talking to, I don't agree that anything is the only possibility. I observed a while ago (yesterday, Dimthing time?) that us innocents were quite capable of strewing confusion all by ourselves, no help from the Possessed required. Lots of people on this bus are confused, trying to make sense of things, proposing theories that seem reasonable to them.
And alongside all the confusion and counterconfusion, there are some beings on this bus who are very pleasant to be around, or barely around at all, but who barely ever really say anything, or at least mostly only say cheerful friendly things, which means they rarely say anything that could point back to them as culpable. Wouldn't that be a perfect place for at least one of the Possessed to hide? I don't say they have necessarily, but it's certainly one excellent strategy for a Possessed. "Oh no, I'm naturally quiet." "Oh no, I've been busy with Real Lyfe." "Oh no, I've never said or done anything suspicious." Wouldn't they be laughing as we fall all over ourselves to suspect each other, but never them?
So I'm not trying to logic out what the possible combinations of Possessed and Sympathizer are today. Tomorrow, I may have to try again. But we'll have more information tomorrow. Today, I'm not going to be able to solve the entire conundrum of all the bizarre recent claims on this bus in a single theory that satisfies my every question (or even any of my questions). But I have discovered what is for me the still point of the storm, that lets me escape from trying to solve this with brute logic and lets me escape from trying to figure out what the Possessed would do or might have done, and lets me base this in a sure and certain truth that gives me a very calm sense of what to do, and that is what I laid out above:
If Joostein is innocent, his lying strategy was deeply bizarre because the straightforward strategy in my view would have been at least as reliable at getting the result Joostein says he is aiming for. And that seems like a bizarre thing for an innocent to do.
I can believe that Joostein thinks really differently from me, because I know I wouldn't have played that strategy as an Innocent -- but I also know that if I were Possessed, I would never dream of playing that strategy either. So even if Joostein is innocent, it's not going to be helpful to me as the endgame nears to have Joostein trying to contribute his reasoning.
And in the meantime Joostein is begging us to lynch him and claiming that will help the innocent position, and others are pointing out that the only explanation for this extremely bizarre behaviour would be that Joostein is Possessed, and frankly I don't care if he's innocent or Possessed at this point, because I'm never going to figure that out by logic --
-- but by my reflections I have found one True Thing in which I am secure, which is that for me, his behaviour is deeply contradictory to what he claims he wants.
And so I am going to vote to send Joostein after the engine. If nothing else it will take one massive source of confusion off the bus.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I can't remember: does Dafyd open the voting before we can vote, or can we just start voting at the appointed time?
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
Zis is ze proof zat Joostein is guilty, und not an innocent vith crazy schemes:
Read zis – it refers to my comment immediately before.
Now let us say ve take Joostein at his vord. He makes zis insane claim to be ze doctor in order to persvade you all to lynch me, und also to draw ze guilty into making a counter claim to be ze doctor, also false. Forget, for a moment, zat zis vould never vork – ve are considering vat Joostein believes und intends, not vat vould vork. Und here he says:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
The best of circumstances would be three claimed doctors. Then we would be able to kill all of them off, including and possibly starting with me. I had planned to offer to go first. Out of these three, one would be guilty and one would be the real deal.
Now see vat he does vith my comment. In reality it is a simple correction of his mistake in numbers, but he presents it as my appeal for help to ze sympathiser. But suppose he believes zat I am doing zis. Suppose he thinks I am asking ze sympathiser to make a false claim to challenge his, und get me off ze hook...
For him, zis is fantastic! Zis is ze best result! Ze jackpot. Ze big vin. If zat happens, he has ze sympathiser trapped in ze false claim UND shows my guilt because ze claim can only be made to save me.
Think zat through. Never mind zat it vould never have happened – it is ze result zat Joostein vas playing for, according to him. So he vill vait, ja, until ze sympathiser takes ze bait. Zen he has two beasts in ze vun trap.
But he does not do zis! He latches on to my comment vithin minutes, und accuses me of sending messages. He responds instantly to discourage anyvun who vas thinking of responding to my supposed plea for aid from doing so. He immediately undermines his own scheme, makes it all but impossible to get ze second false claim zat he himself said he planned for as his best result.
Zat is inexplicable. Zere is no vay, no vay at all, zat Joostein can justify varning off ze guilty person zat he must have imagined might valk straight into ze line of fire. It is beyond all belief zat, even if ve grant every absurd premise of his scheme, he vould ruin it in zis vay.
Now change everything und suppose Joostein is guilty. His claim is made to draw out ze real doctor und to cast suspicion on an innocent opponent. He knows zat zere is no sympathiser or killer about to make a second false claim. Vat he sees, ven I mention ze sympathiser, is a chance to accuse me of suspicious behaviour, und he jumps on zat, because zat is his real purpose. He does not even think about vether ze sympathiser might answer my call, because he knows zat I am not in secretly league vith anyvun. He is not thinking about ze stated aim of his scheme at all.
Vat does he do ven he sees a comment of mine zat he can spin? He spins it. Of course he does. Ze whole point is to make an innocent person look guilty. On zat assumption, his action is exactly vat ve vould expect.
Joostein's behaviour makes at least some sort of sense if he is guilty, und only if he is guilty.
So my vote vill be no surprise. Joostein
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I vote that we send Joostein Käse out the airlock after our engine.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Just to recap, in case Dafyd has drowned under the 250 odd transcripts between the lights coming back on and now:
Our choices are:
Otto (nominated by John)
the Grafinn (nominated by Joostein Kase)
Hophtrig (nominated by Cho Bacca Loriette)
Joostein Kase (nominated by Zapaterietxe)
I vote for Joostein too.
[ 19. March 2014, 20:27: Message edited by: Banner Lady ]
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
Voting is open. I count three votes so far. Votes in bold please.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
I vote for Joostein.
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Ja'ayem, who is the "you" in what you are saying? I am not sure who you are talking about or to.
Sorry, 'you' was Joostein (who in paragraph was assumed the doctor and innocent, combined with the assumption that one of the detectives comments is true, and that there isn't a real doctor. I think there that is the only conclusion).
That first premise is now extremely unlikely (I think), and was at the time of posting.
But it's his actions that changed my view, and at first sight it's not got an obvious innocent explanation.
The other theories* were then updated (guilty, innocent false claim) to try and see what's consistent with mafia or an innocent (without success).
[*that I was balancing against the first and which were consistent with a guilty or innocent Graffin - but not a guilty John]
[ 19. March 2014, 20:59: Message edited by: Jay-Emm ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Nothing about this gambit has made sense. At all. I'm willing to bet dollars to doughnuts that it really doesn't even make sense to Joostein! I think he dropped a crazy bomb and it got out of hand, even though I think he thinks he almost got what he set out to accomplish. Just within reach.... If only that big, bad ol' Zappy hadn't shown up right in the nick of time!
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
And to vote...
If Joostein is guilty, then I'm worried there's some trap about voting earlier rather than later. But at the same time I can't see how we fail to make progress. Granted we might have to work to make sure his sacrifice is in vain. But we can question our assumptions and take care.
If innocent then I want to be sure, but at the same time he was insistent so may have thought of some plan. I can't see it though, but haven't got any idea of what to do instead either.
Joostein
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
Nothing about this gambit has made sense. At all. I'm willing to bet dollars to doughnuts that it really doesn't even make sense to Joostein! I think he dropped a crazy bomb and it got out of hand, even though I think he thinks he almost got what he set out to accomplish. Just within reach.... If only that big, bad ol' Zappy hadn't shown up right in the nick of time!
Be careful about this thought. I am the one whose guilt or innocence will be proven. That I am insane would be the best way to get out of my accusations, that I will present later and that are indeed grave in themselves and that will become ten-fold graver than what they were when I made them, because my innocence will be proven.
I have not always made sense, not always been sure, but there are greater things at work here. And thinking it's just frustration with Zappy's argumentative methods (like effectively shutting someone up by "removing their translator") or anger at those who twisted this thing out of my control is going to ruin reading anyone's words, because it could all just be emotions, frustration, confusion and anger. Actually, disregard them at present as much as you would like, or wouldn't like because you're angry at having your cover blown - but make sure that you can judge them unbiased once judgment day has passed.
Now, someone, seal the vote so that I can get working on last words. I would do it myself, only that I want to hold up the vote as long as possible, because there will then be the greatest possible time-span when I have nothing to protect or prove. A moment of complete honesty, if you will. Or utter, pointless lies.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Codine shakes his head. "Count me as another one who doesn't quite get this all. Still, a false claim is a false claim, so I vote against Joostein.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
In case it is necessary: dead people cannot talk. People's true allegiance will not be revealed while they are still alive. Death scenes may be dramatic or funny, but should not contain any significant debating points.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
In case, Dafyd, that that remark was aimed at me at this point:
Yes, but I am not dead until the voting closes. I am assured death, but not dead. Whereas it might be pointless, I expect a modicum of democracy on this bus: that the voting stations remain open as long as one vote remains to be thrown (or until deadline is reached), and that no lynching be started until all be heard. If nothing else then for maximum amounts of information regarding all players.
Essentially, I am not under any circumstances consenting to the deadline being moved from Friday 8 PM London time. Until then, I consider myself alive.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ok, Joostein, I make Codine's vote to be the deciding vote 6 out of 11 people/beings on board, and your imminent appointment with the airlock is assured. But please do check my arithmetic; I feel like I have (oddly for me) been struggling with arithmetic this whole voyage.
Are you going to start talking now? Or do you prefer to wait until more people have voted? I'm not forcing your hand here or advocating either way; I'd just like to calibrate my expectations for how much of a supply of patience I will need while waiting for your awaited explanations.
I wonder if Dafyd assigned an additional, secret role?
I eagerly await this bus ride getting even weirder than it's been already. Otto, strike up the flute! Hophtrig, let's have a group hug-dance! Choey, have you found any Tango and Foxtrot to go with this excellent Whiskey? This is all to celebrate the imminent arrival (at least by Friday 8 pm) of more weirdness. (And not at all to celebrate the eviction of Joostein, which would be heartless and unfeeling.)
Joostein, can I help you pack? Will you be taking these blankets, or prefer to leave them? And what about your ploonderings? Take or leave? Again, this is not to force your hand, but just to help you to make whatever pre-xtonic exposure arrangements you would most like to make.
(Oh, wait, I see that you seem to be suggesting that you'll hold the big reveal until after everyone has voted. OK, fair enough. Would you like to wait privately in the Hophtrig Hidey Hole (sorry it's a bit crowded; John is storing a turkey in there)? Or would you like to join us dancing in the aisle with the giddy release of a decision made, done, and dusted? Or perhaps you'd like to sit quietly in this front seat by the door? That's usually my favorite seat, but it's so hard to get it.))
[ 19. March 2014, 23:19: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
I wonder if Dafyd assigned an additional, secret role?
No. But watch him claim one anyway!
So the filibuster. The Manifesto. Part of me is wishing it would end already, but part of me is morbidly interested to see what he manages to come up with. And of course, provided he's guilty, we can probably use it to figure out who else is in on this.
Oh, and another thing: I was under the distinct impression that Joostein was going to open voting by voting for himself. I guess that was another one of those "trust me, it's true" statements. Granted, I think his time zone is such he would have to get up at an ungodly hour to do that, but I think I remember him saying he was going to do just that.
Not that it actually matters or anything.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
Oh, and another thing: I was under the distinct impression that Joostein was going to open voting by voting for himself. I guess that was another one of those "trust me, it's true" statements. Granted, I think his time zone is such he would have to get up at an ungodly hour to do that, but I think I remember him saying he was going to do just that.
No, to be fair I think what he expressed was that the earliest he could get up was 4 hours after the voting started, and please don't start voting before then, because he wanted to vote first (for whatever reason). So I think he's clear of any charge of not having voted first. It will be interesting to see if he votes for himself at all, but not indicative of a broken promise if he doesn't, I don't think.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hugdance? Sounds like fun! Lets...
Hang on one moment, something must be done, Hophtrig votes for Jøø§tën
... all hugdance together!
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
The FBC and Otto stop fluting and dancing to say we must agree that Joostein must be nominated because we trust our friends the innocents.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
Oh this ought to be good. I'm voting to throw Joostein off the bus with the most extreme prejudice possible—and now, I think we're going to be treated to a speech from the gallows. I think I'll merge myself with a glass of whiskey and watch the drama from the bar. I may be materializing some popcorn later, for those whose biology is compatible with munching during performances—C. annum var. chimayo dust or Olio di Lusitania on request.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I think we're still waiting for one more to vote: Daisy.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey nibbled a Chiko Roll while they all waited.
Well, if Daisy and Joostein both vote for Joostein, it will be unanimous. And if Joostein does turn out to be innocent, I wonder what we can learn from this episode? Except that like Greyhound coach tours and Kontiki holidays, there are always some very strange people on board who get stranger the longer they travel in confined spaces.
It seems beyond belief he could be anything other than guilty. We shall soon see.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey's thoughts projected upwards to mingle with the dancing algorithms. And before the lights go off again, I would like to suggest to the real doctor: if you are still with us tonight, please protect yourself, no matter who else claims to be the most valuable passenger. We need to protect the numbers of innocent very carefully from now on.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
I've been asked when somebody counts as dead for the purposes of discussion. A person is dead from the point that either I inform them privately that the mafia have killed them overnight, or from the point at which I publish their role publically, which will be at close of voting.
Posted by Surfing Madness (# 11087) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
I think we're still waiting for one more to vote: Daisy.
The voting wasn't open, I went to sleep and missed all the drama, so however I vote makes no difference. I therefore am joining everyone else and like a sheep voting for Joostein.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
The only way this speech thingy makes any sense is if he's innocent, and even then it's tortured logic.
If he's guilty, then what's the point? He buys 21.5 hours. Like that's going to help. If Daisy votes for him it will be unanimous (I'll graciously not count his vote; one shouldn't expect the condemned to vote for himself, even though he promised multiple times.)
If he's innocent, he's robbing us of the ability to discuss our next move. We're stuck and he knows it.
If he's guilty, I have a couple ideas for who is in it with him. The longer he stalls, the more time I have to think about it and thus the more sure I am. So he's shooting himself in the foot.
Either way, this is a circus -- the icing on the cake of crazy that has been this Dimthing day.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
I am sorry, RealLyfe obligations have and will keep me away for another 15 hours or so. By my accounts, the voting stations are open for another 31 hours, approximately. In the meantime, I thought I should share the following contribution from the bus's media database, for general amusement.
Sorry about the delay, it can't be helped. And I'm doing the best I can, John, but sometimes intuition, reason and logics look different from different sides of the horizon. Or even from the same.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Actually, it shouldn't be that hard to continue thinking, assuming my guilt. I should especially like to hear what Zapa, Eliabulon and Codine have to say about who should be suspected, why, based on what interactions with me and what we can retrieve from my guilt. If they have no reason to suspect anything else than my guilt, it shouldn't be a problem. Just move on from my guilt and make cases from there.
Zapa, you've been extraordinary at these things. Assuming that John is innocent and I am guilty along with Reppik, how can the sympathiser and the last possessed be spotted in the tracks of the past and information of the present? Could you make a ranking of candidates? Say, name three names with carefully argued points? The same thing of course goes out to Eliabulon and Codine.
My aim is to make these people work - but it should be work hours saved later. You'll have more time to discuss tomorrow's events by doing this.
And don't chicken out. If I am innocent, my aim with this is to force you to make eventual cases, giving you more opportunities to make mistakes that could be picked up later. If I am guilty, it shouldn't be wasted work but more time to discuss.
I bet you can find some reason to avoid it, but even if you're guilty, it can't be that much work to redo. After all, the more information you possess, the easier the last possessed will be found, right?
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
Actually, it shouldn't be that hard to continue thinking, assuming my guilt. I should especially like to hear what Zapa, Eliabulon and Codine have to say about who should be suspected, why, based on what interactions with me and what we can retrieve from my guilt. If they have no reason to suspect anything else than my guilt, it shouldn't be a problem. Just move on from my guilt and make cases from there.
If you guilty, you could be a killer, in vich case you know vun ozer person, but can discuss schemes vith zem, or ze sympathiser, who knows two ozers, but has no contact vith zem (who do not know, but could possibly have guessed, your identity). Your reactions to zem, and even more, zeirs to you, vill be different in each case. Vat I conclude depends to a degree on vich it is.
Ven I know for sure who you are, I intend to be very thorough, re-thinking everything in ze light of zat new knowedge und re-reading all transcripts. I expect I vill take most of ze night vith zis. Details are important, tiny comments or mistakes can be significant. I see no reason to assist you in further deception. Tell us vat you have to say, und make your exit like a civilised being.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
No, it's a good question. It'll affect things though to find out whether you (Joostein) are innocent or guilty, and how everyone reacts to that. Everything's changing too fast right now for precise rankings, so these are in no particular order. But my current suspicions:
Eliabulon: Not for the reasons I was arguing against yesterday, but I can't figure out his game right now so I'm suspicious.
Otto: Basically for all the reasons I've listed the last couple days.
Zapa?: Not sure honestly whether I'm suspicious of him or not, but he's been a major player lately affecting people's votes, so I think it behooves us to watch what he's encouraging us toward. (If I didn't know he was innocent, I'd be watching John for similar reasons.)
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Gwai:
(If I didn't know he was innocent, I'd be watching John for similar reasons.)
Aye, and rightfully so.
I intend to not read a word Joostein says until the announcement comes over the wireless on whether he was innocent or guilty. The only other thing I'm going to do is go back to day one and take a look at the voting order and record, because I forgot to make a note of that at the time. I may also read back over Zapaterietxe's work as he was destroying Joostein's argument. But considering how the Dimthing day has gone, I want to be able to read it with certain knowledge that he is guilty or innocent, as the case may be.
In the mean time, I'm going to try to stop jeering. It's really not becoming of me. I believe my creator and author wouldn't approve.
[ 20. March 2014, 12:49: Message edited by: Barefoot Friar ]
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
In the mean time, I'm going to try to stop jeering. It's really not becoming of me. I believe my creator and author wouldn't approve.
I rather suspect it would be good for all of us to remember that we're posting in character and that it's not personal.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Osviþr maþr
vakir vm allar netr
oc hyggr at hvivetna;
þa er móþr
er at morgni komr,
alt er vil sem var.
- from Havamal
(Translation:)
The unwise man is awake all night,
and ponders everything over;
when morning comes he is weary in mind,
and all is a burden as ever.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
A possibility: John is not innocent, and Joostein actually is the real doctor. This could come about either if we misread what we thought was Celandine's indication that John was innocent, or if Celandine made the mistake I made when Crimson's role was revealed, and mixed up which of the two (Detective and Inspector) gets true results, and which gets inverted results.
Or maybe Joostein is guilty, and is trying to draw us out to help the Possessed decide who to kill tonight.
The possibilities are endless.
I'm not going to expend much effort on figuring anything out, or raising further hypotheses, until after Friday night and we know for sure Joostein's role. Sorry Joostein, you may be innocent and have some grand master plan which our discussions now could help, but you have utterly failed to convince me of that. (Oddly, I'm facing a similar Real Lyfe situation, where someone's assertion that I should do a certain thing, and her utter failure to convince me (over my own very opposite convictions about the right thing to do) are causing major problems between us.)
Joostein, I enjoyed the song you linked to -- thanks for the smile it gave me.
[ 20. March 2014, 14:45: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
John is not a false doctor, and I am not the real one.
Ios, good luck with your RealLyfe business. You're not the one I want in discussions - I am just bringing more work for those I know to be guilty. They're three times as many as me, so they deserve a bit of extra work pretending they think I'm guilty. It won't hurt anyone but give them more to defend themselves from, alternatively more possibilities to make mistakes, if guilty/if I'm innocent.
As for the song, I'm happy to have made you smile after all I've put you guys through of late. This post of yours made me laugh constantly for the rest of that day and half of the next. I believe it shall go down in mafia history books. Good luck with everything, all the best.
John, good call.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
JFH, if you're accusing me of being guilty, I don't need to pretend to have decided whether you're guilty. Obviously I hope you are guilty, but I am quite open about the fact that I voted for you because of your false claim. I think false claims are exceedingly suspicious, so I voted to send you off.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
I'm accusing you of being sympathetic. And you could be innocent (nah). But it doesn't hurt you to have a bit more discussion going on regarding those you suspect or why. Could you refer back a bit, to your suspectees' behaviour and not just their general feel? Like to things they've done or said? And what would their guilt say of the rest of us? Who should go tomorrow when I'm proven guilty? Eliabulon?
We've had enough discussion, and I'm just taken out for being noisy and an interruption in the midst of investigating Otto and Eliabulon. You will probably get little more of Otto than last time. Assume that is so. Will you still vote for Eliabulon tomorrow? What are the conditions for you to vote for her?
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
Will you still vote for Eliabulon tomorrow? What are the conditions for you to vote for her?
I am hoping for something zat is a bit better zan "it is devious und complicated - zerefore an Eliabulon must have done it". Vatever else you may vant to prove, you are certainly proving zat zat is not true.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I'm not sure this isn't a ruse by a guilty Joostein to help the Possessed figure out who to kill tonight. Or it could be exactly what it seems to be, an attempt by an innocent Joostein to give the ones he believes to be guilty more rope to hang themselves with.
I'm not Codine, but I suppose if tomorrow Eliabulon says she is Possessed, then I shall plan to vote Eliabulon off.
Then Eliabulon will strongly hint that she's really Innocent but strategically making a false claim of Possession. Then all chaos will ensue and we will have an even more exciting day than today, plus we'll all be reeling drunkenly up and down the aisle under the influence of this nice bottle of Whiskey.
Oh Eliabulon, please please please cooperate in this scenario! It will be so much fun!
It's a good thing Choey hasn't found those bottles of Tango and Foxtrot. On top of this Whiskey they might make me drunk or giddy or otherwise completely lose control.
Ios hiccups, smiles beatifically on the assembled beings, staggers down the aisle, fumbles open the door of the Hophtrig Hidey Hole after three tries, and collapses on a pile of seatback fluff and boa constrictor feathers with her arm around John's turkey. She falls into a light sleep, dreaming of running across an xtonic-bathed plain pursued by Crimson, Lady Celandine and Lovely Lesley who are chanting "Fooled ya! Fooled ya! Fooled ya! We are the Possessed!" Dafyd brings up the rear announcing "And I am the Sympathizer! And I am the Sympathizer! Sorry, problems with the intercom. Sorry, problems with the intercom."
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
If the Grafinn is guilty, John is unknown.
Not necessarily. I've already pointed out, and I still believe it to be true, that she was speculating about Eliabulon. I think it was a telegraph on who she planned to investigate, but since we don't know the outcome, we're left guessing.
Since I think Eliabulon is guilty, I think she figured out that Celandine was the detective, was going to investigate her, and was probably going to blow the whistle the next morning. So no, just because Eliabulon is guilty doesn't automatically mean that's who Celandine investigated. Hells bells, why would she wait until after voting was over to say anything?
Otto has been reading, and finds this interesting, as he cannot sleep just now for two reasons. First, Ios is snoring. Second, the FBC is snuggled in with Ios who apparently likes feathers. Third (okay there are 3 reasons), the intuition of the FBC previously told Otto that there was something odd about Eliabulon, but Otto changed opinion about Hophtrig, and Otto thought that Hophtrig and Eliabulon were connected. So not sleeping because he is scared and thinking, and wondering about past thoughts within present thoughts and feels that he knows too little as an innocent.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Otto, here's a can of shaving cream. Let's put some in Ios' hand, and then take one of those feathers my turkey dropped...
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
Otto, here's a can of shaving cream. Let's put some in Ios' hand, and then take one of those feathers my turkey dropped...
Otto thinks he missed some of the pranks and practical jokes as a child.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey munched through a pack of potato crisps noisily as she thought through the implications of what might happen next if Joostein was innocent.
Firstly, if John is the real doctor, then he is the only trustworthy innocent we have on board. He can survive, because he can protect himself. Where he goes with his votes, we need to follow. Much doubt is probably going to be aired now about his innocence, because the mafia will really, really want him offed, and the only way they can do that is to get the other innocents to get rid of him.
Secondly, we need to look at who is working hard to distract or bullshit, even if they are doing it very cleverly and innocently. Both Hophtrig and Zapaterietxe fit that profile. To some extent so do Otto and Ios.
Thirdly, if you are innocent, please do not do anything as stupid as claiming a role you do not have. The jackals are circling. They are good at tearing innocent arguments and intentions to pieces. If you are innocent and you are targetted, do not get upset. Keep calm and carry on. If you do not know what to do, fall into line behind John, because that will maximise block voting. Split votes will play into the hands of the mafioso. Joostein is right, in that we need to keep talking when that annoying parallel universe RealLyfe permits. (I will be silent for the next two earth days because of this other universe stuff).
Fourthly, if you are innocent and female, be very very scared. Looking at who we have lost, the odds are not in your favour. This suggests to me an aggressive male trio of baddies. And if that trio includes Zapaterietxe and the Grafinn we are in trouble. Best case scenario is that it includes only one of those two. Who survives the next black out will tell us much.
Choey set her explainator to "entertainment" and projected the Addams Family Tango on to the roof of the bus. It was a shame Ios was snoring so soundly. She might have enjoyed it.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
This suggests to me an aggressive male trio of baddies. And if that trio includes Zapaterietxe and the Grafinn we are in trouble.
I have been accused of many things in ze last few days - but "male"?
(Und does Zapaterietxe qualify as male? It may be zat ze masculine is his pronoun of choice, but as an immaterial entity, I had taken zat to be more a qvestion of grammar zan of fundamental identity. He (she, it) may perhaps correct me if zis is wrong.
[ 20. March 2014, 21:37: Message edited by: Eliab ]
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Must be one of those "Catherine le grand" things.
(Translation: Catherine the great, using a masculine particle for "the great", implying some sort of honorary masculinity.)
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
Fourthly, if you are innocent and female, be very very scared. Looking at who we have lost, the odds are not in your favour. This suggests to me an aggressive male trio of baddies. And if that trio includes Zapaterietxe and the Grafinn we are in trouble. Best case scenario is that it includes only one of those two. Who survives the next black out will tell us much.
That is a very interesting observation. I don't know if correlation means causation in this case or not... worth a thought, anyway.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
I have been accused of many things in ze last few days - but "male"?
You may wish to speak with Ja'ayem as well. He keeps using the masculine pronoun. Please don't have him put to death for it. I'm sure it's an honest mistake.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
Must be one of those "Catherine le grand" things.
(Translation: Catherine the great, using a masculine particle for "the great", implying some sort of honorary masculinity.)
"Catherine and Elizabeth were not women; they were queens.*"
I've come to three conclusions over the past few hours:
1. Choey is guilty of not bringing out the open bar sooner. If she's responsible for keeping us thowed, I say we don't send her after the engine tonight.
2. Pour the shaving cream into the drunkie's hand, then use the feather to tickle their nose. When they sneeze, they'll instinctively cover their mouth. This works best if you don't put the shaving cream into the right hand of a southpaw.
3. Lesley's small insect has quite a bit to answer for. The blame for today's insanity should probably be ascribed to the lack of smoke inhalation after sunup. Therefore, in the interest of peace, etc. (and giving our soon to be dearly departed a good sendoff), I think it's time to put on a Radiohead/Floyd/Ens Commune mix, close the external vent fans, and breathe deep.
As for my preferred pronoun: "he/him/his" works—I refer to my sister sometimes, after all. Yes, any pronoun you pick is going to be equally inaccurate, so I won't be offended (nay, complimented) if you pick a different one, but I do usually choose to condense as generally male. Why? I've been told I have to pick—it causes less confusion among bipeds. Thems the Guidelines, and the Guidelines brook exceptions only under the most extenuating circumstances. And, just so you know, even these circumstances aren't extenuating. We Angeloi take our rules very seriously.
*A misquote of Simone de Beauvoir, Second Sex
[ 21. March 2014, 00:58: Message edited by: Ariston ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ios stirred. Her nose tickled! She swiped at it with the back of her hand and suddenly opened her eyes. There were John and Otto kneeling on each side of her backseat fluff bed, with anticipatory grins on their faces! Startled, she swatted at them with both hands, palms outward.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
On Dimthing day one, Zapaterietxe proposed we start by listing our three top suspicions. Here is what they were, with each busrider's name followed by their list of suspects.
Some people can count higher than three, so they listed more suspicions. I have converted instances of Otto's old name "John" into "Otto", but some of the Johns left on the list, whom I take to be Johns The Less (John The Lesses?) may actually be Ottos.
Top three suspicions:
Zapaterietxe: Choey, John, Hophtrig
Ja'ayem: Ios, Lucy, Eliabulon
Lady Celandine: Lovely Lesley, Eliabulon, Hophtrig
Lovely Lesley: Eliabulon, Hophtrig, Choey
Eliabulon: Joostein, Codine, John, Otto, Reppik, Daisy (all mostly on grounds of silence or unhelpfulness up to that point)
Hophtrig: Crimson, Otto, Lovely Lesley
John: (in no particular order) Codine, Lovely Lesley, Otto (all on grounds of being unrevealing up to that point)
Joostein: Eliabulon, Crimson, Codine, Otto (the last two on grounds of silence)
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Also on Dimthing day one Zapaterietxe drew up a list of dangerous or suspicious behaviors. This included:
quote:
People who have advocated information sharing among detectives: Hophtrig
....
People cooking up weird ideas: Hophtrig (self-nominating? Voting someone off two days later, rather than today?), me [that is, Zapaterietxe himself]
....
Potential shitstirrers: Reppik Tew, Grafinn Eliabulon, Lesley
....
Full of static: Hophtrig (talkative, annoying prat, if a bit better now…whether or not that's because of Possession); Grafinn Eliabulon (but what else do you expect from a Pavian noble—it's completely in character); Lesley (strange speech tics; little strategizing despite lots of words; a set of three suspects who had each been nominated by two of the previous three voters—so no originality—but perhaps trying to establish a trend early)
List of nominees, votes, nightly victims, and Heroes Of The Revolution Who Nobly Went In Search Of Our Engine to follow.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
The Engine
3 parts Ol' Janx Spirit
2 parts Hellene Xinomavro
2 parts Brancafernet
1 part Oinos di Methouton
Combine with ice, have nearest demicorporeal being align on a subatomic level for maximum effect. Chug. Let the taste overtake you before the effect does.
Use your powers to create objects out of any conveniently available matter to make more, then offer to "send someone after The Engine." For once, the euphemism is more unpleasant (at least on the next day) than the thing sounds like.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
I'm not sure quite what Hophtrig has in this bottle here. Hophtrig has made an experiment. Hophtrig was mixing things together and Hophtrig made something which smells a little like the sanitary facilities after use by the Ravenous Bugblatter Beast of Traal (After that visit, what with the aroma and an unfortunate incident with the other guest being eaten, the Ravenous Bugblatter Beast was never invited back on the Hophtrig show).
Let's play dares, I will give this piece of slightly sticky vinyl seat covering to the first person who is brave enough to drink Hophtrig's concoction! Which one of Hophtrig's friends wants to play?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Hophtrig, I can't have a drink right now. I'm searching the archives. Ah, here we go:
Nominees, votes, and deaths both by our collective hand and beyond our control:
Dimthing day one:
Nominations:
John nominates No Lynching
Joostein nominates Eliabulon
Eliabulon nominates Joostein
Zapaterietxe nominates Reppik Tew
Reppik Tew nominates Lovely Lesley
Votes:
Early votes before polls open:
Lady Celandine: No Lynching
Choey: No lynching
Votes after polls open:
Zapaterietxe: Reppik Tew
Lady Celandine: No Lynching
Ja'ayem: No Lynching
Otto: Joostein
Hophtrig: No Lynching
Eliabulon: Joostein
[Lovely Lesley invalidly votes for Hophtrig]
Lovely Lesley: No Lynching
Crimson: No Lynching
John: No Lynching
Codine: No Lynching
Ios: Joostein (this was a crosspost with Codine)
Joostein: No Lynching
Reppik Tew: No Lynching
Daisy shows up just before the polls close and pleads an attack of Real Lyfe. She asks whether her vote still can make a difference (it can't), and doesn't vote.
Result:
10 - No Lynching
3 - Joostein
1 - Reppik Tew
1 - No Vote Cast
The airlock stays closed.
Dimthing night one
Police Inspector Crimson is murdered.
Dimthing day two
Nominations:
Hophtrig nominates Otto
John nominates Reppik Tew
Otto nominates Hophtrig
Votes:
Choey: Hophtrig
Ja'ayem: Otto
Hophtrig: Otto
Zapaterietxe: Reppik Tew
Lady Celandine: Reppik Tew
Lovely Lesley: No Lynching
John: Reppik Tew
Ios: Reppik Tew
Otto: Reppik Tew
Joostein: Otto (to gather information about the people voting after him, he says)
Eliabulon: Reppik Tew
Reppik Tew: No Lynching
Daisy: Reppik Tew (mentions an imminent upcoming lengthy appointment with Real Lyfe)
Codine: Reppik Tew (cites a timing issue involving the Real Lyfe Leave Work Challenge and the Real Lyfe Arrive Home Challenge to explain her late vote)
Results:
8 - Reppik Tew
3 - Otto
1 - Hophtrig
2 - No Lynching
Possessed Symbiont (Unreadable) Reppik Tew is wrestled out the airlock by...
... Innocent Lovely Lesley
Dimthing night two
Detective Lady Celandine is murdered.
Dimthing day three
John nominates Otto
Joostein nominates Eliabulon
Choey nominates Hophtrig
Eliabulon nominates Joostein
Joostein claims to be the doctor.
John claims to be the doctor.
All hell breaks loose.
Votes:
Eliabulon: Joostein
Ios: Joostein
Choey: Joostein
John: Joostein
Ja'ayem: Joostein
Codine: Joostein
Hophtrig: Joostein
Otto: Joostein
Zapaterietxe: Joostein
Daisy: Joostein
Results so far:
10 - Joostein
1 - No Vote Cast Yet
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
Fourthly, if you are innocent and female, be very very scared. Looking at who we have lost, the odds are not in your favour. This suggests to me an aggressive male trio of baddies. And if that trio includes Zapaterietxe and the Grafinn we are in trouble. Best case scenario is that it includes only one of those two. Who survives the next black out will tell us much.
That is a very interesting observation. I don't know if correlation means causation in this case or not... worth a thought, anyway.
Seconded. Definitely worth a very long discussion afterwards.
It is a sample of 2 (3 if the mafia can reach out in RL) so it's not impossible to be chance.
And thinking of real life could be consistent with an all female mafia.
And of course the mafia are trying to be deceitful, which may be enough to make a stronger dent in casual sexism than the rest of us.
But it is interesting... (although now the mafia will definitely be aware of what signals they send-and we're back in quad bluff zone)
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
The baddies have gone with the goodies observed Otto to the FBC. The FBC shakes its feathery head and asks if it can bite a baddie. Otto wonders and wonders and wonders. Feels dishevelled and in need of a shower, makes his way toward to loo, but not singing this time, no, not singing. Tears are in Otto's eyes, he bangs his third leg on something rather hard and sharp. "Ouch, he says", and skulks off, limping and weeping. So frightened, so so frightened. The FBC is losing it's feathers and wants to sleep all the time, and Otto has BO.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
I'm accusing you of being sympathetic. And you could be innocent (nah). But it doesn't hurt you to have a bit more discussion going on regarding those you suspect or why. Could you refer back a bit, to your suspectees' behaviour and not just their general feel? Like to things they've done or said? And what would their guilt say of the rest of us? Who should go tomorrow when I'm proven guilty? Eliabulon?
We've had enough discussion, and I'm just taken out for being noisy and an interruption in the midst of investigating Otto and Eliabulon. You will probably get little more of Otto than last time. Assume that is so. Will you still vote for Eliabulon tomorrow? What are the conditions for you to vote for her?
Since you said above that you are trying to waste the time of the possessed, or rather those of us who you believe are so, I will not be going into great depth with many quotes that will take a long time to find. However, my short answer is that I haven't decided who should go tomorrow. Certainly your guilt or innocence will be relevant, but so will other people's reactions and arguments.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Prologue
I bet you're all wondering why I gathered you here…
I believe this is a rather unique occasion, so I shall set out a few guidelines for the upcoming posts. To begin with, all words here assumes that I am innocent. This will be proven guilty or false shortly, so does not need to be argued with. That is the benefit of this window in space, where I'm doomed but not dead. You can't go for player instead of ball. I will try to be brief because it will be a lot to read, and I want to pack as much punch as I can instead of getting lost in too many words. This means I will not be able to cover every single possible eventuality, but I shall do my best. Please bear with me.
In the interest of focusing on the right things, please do not respond at all to the first and second chapter which will hold mainly my recollection of what's been going on and why I did what I did. I fear that responses and comments on such things will take up space from the arguments. The situation is what it is and we have to do what we can from this point on. Being innocent, all I say is truth as it appears or appeared to me. In chapters three, four and five I will briefly cover the arguments I see against a certain three people, and my predictions and recommendations for the future.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Chapter I
Snakes on a Bus.
At the outset of this, Dafyd (Thor and Odin's adopted love-child), set us up with 2 detectives, 1 doctor, 3 possessed and 1 sympathiser. This was interesting and odd, and should lead to a greater potential for a detective-based victory. It split the incentive to gain information against the likelihood of killing someone who could be immensely useful. I went in with a general deep suspicion of all usually strong players, seen in my listings then, and from the last game a general suspicion of folks who are trying to make themselves "too useful", like replacing argumentative posts with general lists of stats or maths than anyone can do but that looks like one is helpful. That's non-harmful for possessed to do. That, and a decision to object to bloat or overly generic posts (which claim to be useful, as opposed to entertaining posts which I can easily sort aside), drove me to suspect Eliabulon early on. Zapa also had unusual ratings at this point, but seemed innocent. With Eliabulon there were too many bells ringing: rules that anyone could figure out ("Don't die, detective!"), a post that left the reader with more questions regarding everyone rather than less and did not really take a stand against anyone, and most of all not a single reaction from the usually most reactive player of all to game rules, regarding the odd setup. So I nominated her.
Eliabulon responded with pride rather than logic, and instead of understanding logical points or at least explaining how they were good but mistaken, responded with an aggressive nomination out of thin air. This was very odd. I got sure that this was the one occasion when we'd spot Eliabulon from the start, because that was unbecoming of her previous nature and rigidity of mind seemed turned to frigidity. And Codine out of nowhere used the old trope "so you're saying he talks too much" to defend Eliabulon without actually facing mine and John's points. It seemed oddly related to how Zapa had previously defended Eliabulon. Zapa then repeated himself. I wanted to ask how Eliabulon should then be caught if guilty, but didn't. It seemed to be a lot of manipulation of words going on "he's really just saying this and here's why it's wrong", but it was hard to identify one source or direction. I was very suspicious of Eliabulon though, but decided to vote for no lynching out of principle, due to the different setup. I received three votes myself, and decided to lay a bit low and take a more defensive position. Zapa reiterated the "Pavian being Pavian" "argument" (not sure which deserves quotation marks the most) but I didn't notice that pattern per se - he was also arguing sanely a lot.
Crimson died. No surprise, happens often. She was the detective, which changed things. John joined those seeing my arguments as misunderstandings, and I was getting convinced myself. I was not sure why people were convinced about Reppik, but was happy to see him or Otto off rather than me, and they seemed expendable characters for information, and unlikely specialists. At voting, I was sure of no one but knew I had to keep my back clear, so went for considered but impartial vote for Otto to see what others would do. In an early vote, usually for information rather than throwing out evils, that was best. The vote made me look very bad, and Zapa and Eliab very good, meaning I was in a tough spot. I posted an explanation post and was very uncertain of what was going on, and suspected I was on my way out. However, I noticed a change in description of the past day, from "tactics change to info-lynching" to "having spotted a guilty one", giving some beings infinite credit, making them irrefutable. And then came That Day.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Chapter II
Dr. Brain-Sprained
Celandine, the other detective, was lynched. Disaster. This post explains my thinking. For me, that was the only possible way things could hang together. Someone bright had to be on their side, and there were only two masterminds left. One of them had rung bells all along and left many questions unanswered. His double voting posts in the voting against Reppik had reserved his action space but made him look clean. Along with the rest of the arguments, this was the bluff the possessed would need to make to keep up in a hard game. I was not sure who number three and sympathiser were, but left for RealLyfe and when I returned, Codine had posted this, reminding me of her previous spins (see chapter 1), but worse - Eliabulon had been entirely silent despite being accused, and with nobody noticing this, the discussion seemed to lose energy and focus from her. With her counter-accusation of me (and me knowing that I'm innocent but looking bad), it seemed that the possessed were entirely in control of the game. John hoped for Zapa's logic, and the patterns got clearer - the "Pavian being Pavian" routine, the outlogicking manhandling of Choey and Lesley, the sacrifice placing them both on safe ground.
They were slipping out of a net of the greatest reasons I could see around in the game, due to my unfortunate vote against Otto and due to them being three to one, interspersing with one another and taking different angles. Have you noticed how Eliabulon and Zapa never cross-post, despite being the two most active writers in the thread? And yet I knew if I could only get one of them, I would have done my worth. The rest would fall into place. But I realized that I was too much of a player for them to play instead of the ball. I realized that there was indeed no way I could get out alive, so I decided that my sacrifice should come but that it had to take you as close to victory as possible.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
In the finale of a movie about the detective Sherlock Holmes, his assistant (coincidentally a doctor!) is faced with look-alikes at a diplomatic party, one of whom is a terrorist. They find the right one by doing something entirely unexpected, to which the guilty cannot respond as would be expected of them. I sought to wring control of the game out of their hands for a couple of brief moments, sparking some sort of fear into them and in the confusion force unexpected actions. Notice that I succeeded in clearing Ios from guilt in doing so, as her behaviour showed that she was taken aback by this. Eliabulon and Zapa, however, withdrew and refused to show anything - which was strange, in the middle of some of the most eventful moments of our days here on the bus. Eliabulon has asked me whom I would reveal myself as innocent for, and I will respond this: anyone but Eliabulon if faced with a single other doctor by time of voting, after giving it some time for another doctor to appear. There is no reason for me to lie, and no reason to distrust this. I made mistakes, some bad and some negligible (a revealed doctor can still be of use), but then even the best make mistakes.
So I went with Kipling and threw myself in, knowing full well I would have to die before the end of two days. I rushed in a few times, but then I was fighting Eliabulon, Zapa and Codine single-handedly. At some point I started thinking I might survive the day and get Eliabulon off, and then Zapa's cavalry arrived to use my guilt as the argument against the brazen accusations against Eliabulon. So I decided I'd have to yank and twist again, and decided to reveal him by how badly he must argue against me - note his lack of mentioning at that point that the arguments against Eliabulon were pretty dire, too. Going to the gallows myself was about being able to show, as I do now, that I was willing all along because they weren't, to pull them along down with me once you see how hard they had to push. That was my intention, and I hope you can see my reasons, even if you may disagree. My point is that I was not irrational, or at least there was method in't, and I am glad to have put the limelight on Zapa, Eliabulon and Codine, for I am as sure of their guilt as ever.
[Codefix. —A]
[ 21. March 2014, 17:09: Message edited by: Ariston ]
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Chapter III
24 frames per second
Ladies, gentlemen and snakes,
This game has, as Ios pointed out, been bizarre. But it was bizarre even before I broke it. I shall touch upon some of the general reasons in this chapter, and then go down in more specific accusations in the 4th.
We have a game with 2 sheriffs and a doctor who can self-protect. This is, despite the number of possessed, an immense advantage. The possessed must give a virtuoso performance to stay alive. They must avoid the searchlights of the detectives and take them out quickly, and at the same time stay respectable to the others. They have managed to do so so far, as you can see. Our/Zapa's picks to take folks out have been wrong twice out of three times, in Leslie and me.
What I cannot get over however is how easy the first kill was. We have the most skilled possessed we have seen in a long time, and yet, they cannot write a decent defence speech for Reppik? This does not ring true. As for Otto, if he was in touch with the guilty, he'd have made a far better defence speech the first time around, as would Choey when she was almost offed before my distraction pointed the blowtorch in Eliabulon's face. And as you will see I have not manipulated the process in any interest of saving killers. That is what leads me to assume that Otto and Choey are innocent and that Reppik was not given proper attention by the evil genius - meaning a sacrifice.
But who would benefit from such a sacrifice? I won't go with just paranoidly claiming they control everything, but instead I think they wanted to control the detectives, to buy one or two more rounds of time if their guess was wrong - as it would be unwise to investigate those pointing out guilty ones as the first choice. And to achieve that goal, of becoming unread rather than unreadable, sacrificing the unreadable was an acceptable loss. Reppik was neither silent nor a high profiler, and as such unlikely to be investigated at first. I think it was a sacrifice that I would have been willing to make if I desired to become trusted, and I think with the numbers given, becoming trusted was more or less necessary to stay alive.
Furthermore, I would like to point to another thing: we are certain that there is an evil genius around, and yet we look for evil ones among the largest crowd (silents) we can find, instead of the smallest. It is easy to vote the three supposed geniuses (me, Zapa, Eliab) off, among them there should be at least one guilty and using that information we should be able to find the last one. Although I tell ya, it's Eliab and Zapa, both of them.
Furthermore, it should be added: Zapa has accused a few different people. However, I think my argument above, of lack of decent defense, can actually lift Otto and Choey somewhat from suspicion. Likewise, we know Leslie's identity, and we soon know mine as innocent. Mind you, Codine pointed out that we need a higher than 50 % ratio of possessed to innocents to be victorious. It's not going that well with Zapa in charge. How about we give him one more chance, and if he fails we take out that suspicious and suspected Grafinn that he's keeping behind his back? Or just Codine, because I'm more proven innocent than he is?
These are factors that I think look odd in general with the current structure of the game. I believe there will be long, bloated comments on this, but do return to this, because I am cleared by the time you read this. This is my response to the questions for specific narrative with reasons for actions. I cannot explain it all because three pigs up for shaving can squeal faster than I can throw them pearls of clarity (especially once I'm dead), but the key point is this: these are rather grave concerns. It may be wise to use one of the two chances you have left to actually try them out, no matter how well my opponents argue and howl.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Chapter IV
Grabbing the players by their balls
I have suggested Eliabulon, Zapa and Codine for the airlocks, the former two for being possessed, the latter for being a sympathiser. My main case is with Eliabulon, as I think he is a key to the others. My main argument against him is this:
I can make a very good case against him using nothing new, but old charges that he has not answered despite having plenty of time to do so. So I shall bring forth your own charges against him. Today was an interesting day. About halfway through, John, you were convinced that Eliabulon was guilty. Then you turned after Zapa's apologia. You did right, most things pointed to that I was a certain guilty - but notice how Eliabulon has been strategically silent regarding his own innocence. When I knew I was innocent and risking looking guilty, I pointed to things that would clear me. Following the doctored claim situation, he was unusually silent, despite all the accusations. There may be RealLyfe issues, of course - but someone close to him also whispered something in my ear.
I would like to remind you all what caused those earlier suspicions, as well.
- Eliabulon admitted that she and I are not on the same side. This was not worth much, but it was concluded and nobody disagreed that it was unlikely to find two players where it was more likely that one was evil. This should still stand.
- Eliabulon refused, ran at the thought of doing what I shall be revealed to be doing, take the first step into the water if thinking the other is guilty. I know no one who would be so pragmatic as to sacrifice an innocent to put themselves in a winning position, but this time it was a no-go. What's so wrong with a bit of accountability at this point? Or with the fact that taking you out would give the most information regarding two others, Zapa and me? It would save us having to go through the rest of us one by one. And now you're unknown and I am known to be innocent, meaning less information and more suspicions to be raised against you.
- The lack of useful input. You mentioned to Ios that you were thinking about the two detectives, but nothing came out of those thoughts? Your relatives have you talking like this. Why have we not been allowed to benefit from this? Why were we for example not advised to have one of the two detectives go public from the start, so that they could be protected by the hidden doctor? Why was this suggestion not even raised or dismissed at the time? Is this really the great Eliabulionic mind?
As for Zapa and Codine, I shall present the following evidence:
- As mentioned in Chapter I, there has been an ongoing stream of spins away from Eliabulon by them. Zapa has not presented how a potential Eliabulonic bluff would look, despite holding her in such high regard. Is that not dangerous neglect, bordering on criminal? What would it take to spot a guilty Eliabulon, Zapa?
- Codine's reaction against my words, at the very same moment as I predicted them. Note that she had not expressed any view on my doctor claim, so her view could not be automatically assumed.
- Zapa has loudly protested my wishing Eliabulon dead, as that would be a blow to the supposed unity and leadership on this bus. However, my thesis could just as well be tested by making Codine take a walk. She's hardly essential to life on this planet. Why did you not suggest that yourself? She's not on anyone's survival list, especially after voting for Reppik at a time when it did not matter, and going for no lynching the first day. If I'm bright enough to be an evil genius, chances are you could want me aboard, even if I've been doing something odd. I could not make things worse if I am locked inside Hophtrig's cage of being ignored.
- Overall, Zapa has been overly loud. Is he not protesting at least three degrees too much? He's been protesting that I have different opinions, that I disagree with the leadership, and run around waving his hands and shouting at me to stop waving my hands.He stole my reference to the burning house. So what's up with that, really? Will it bring you results? Ask yourself if that does or does not bring you confusion. Read his Apologia again and see if he doesn't brazenly do all the things in there that he accuse me of doing. If you disagree, fine. But this day has been the intensest of all because I put in all the work I could manage against the ones I know to be guilty, and Zapa and Eliab did their best to throw all they could back at me. I'll let you figure out what that's all about, given that they couldn't be convinced to take a stand even two days from now if they prove to be wrong.
Now, have a look at the evidence above. Tell me that's not stronger than anything else that's been put up there, and then go where the evidence, presented by an innocent source, leads you.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Chapter V
Weavings of the Norns
What should be done right now? Where can anything be taken from here?
Of course, lynching Zapa and Eliabulon is the best way to win the game. Another is to try my claims by taking the suspicious Codine (always in the shadows, never speaking clearly) to the stake. If she's the sympathiser, take out Eliabulon because she's been backing him up before (see Chapter I), or just because it's obvious that I know who we are facing. You shall know the truth. I have hope for you.
- John, there was a legend in the past of a doctor, made in the likeness of Dafyd himself, who was exceptionally skilled at fooling death. You and Ios are both more or less cleared and the obvious hits.
- I consider the fact that Otto's and Choey's defenses have been so weak to speak in their favour given the evil genius we're facing. Likewise someone was obviously out looking for detectives when writing Reppik's defensive speeches. And Zapa spotted the "deflection" onto Leslie very, very quickly. But then he would know
- Keep looking among the evil geniuses, they're a smaller group and proven, as opposed to the silents, to hold at least one possessed. Eliabulon and Zapa remain.
- If Zapa, Codine and Eliabulon are all alive in two mornings from now, despite how effective they claim to have been, you should all send one of them out for a walk. If they return as what I claim them to be (Eliabulon & Zapa possessed, Codine sympathiser), it's a good idea to take out more of them.
- Read through Zapa's apologia again, run it against itself (accusations of flattering, hand-waving, ad hominem attacks, not arguing against the opponents's points, or using the other party's guilt as a defense). If you think it stands up well, then I bow to a true master of deception. Also, how does him removing my translator, in effect shutting me up, not ring a bell or two of whether he's after the truth?
- John, have my Bloont Oobjectimoom. If you should pass away, hand it over to Hophtrig. I broke loose a piece of one of my teeth (I won't be needing them anyway) and made an inscription: "In memoriam, Grafinn Ekatarina Eliabulon, Zapaterietxe, Lord Codine". If ever you make it out of here, it will be because they don't.
Good luck, friends. I am sorry that I could not guarantee you more success, or argue more effectively against those you need taken out. Ah well. Tonight we shall dine in Valhalla. Until then, let's rock.
Signed,
Joostein
(Yes, consider this signature the vote for myself.)
[Codefix. Let it be known, I hate these self-breaking URLs
—A]
[ 21. March 2014, 17:06: Message edited by: Ariston ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
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Sweet mother of Abraham Lincoln.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
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Ze summary:
“I convinced myself very early on zat Eliabulon vas guilty. It follows zat anyvun who qvestioned my reasoning about zat vas guilty, too. I think it is important to kill zem. Zat is vy I pretended to be ze doctor.”
I cannot claim zat zis captures all of ze above arguments, but it sets out all ze most important points. (Und zey say Pavians have no gift for brevity).
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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Well. Well, well, well. John, have a page from one of my holobooks.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
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I am surprised.
I vill confess zat vat I expected ze big reveal to be vas something like “I am ze sympathiser. Eliabulon offended me, und I decided to change sides. She is guilty und so is [some ozer, possibly somevun Joostein accused before but possibly not].”
Or, if not zat, some ozer grandiose claim of zat sort. I thought it vould have been a lie, of course, but ve vould have zen debated vether is vas a bluff or double-bluff, und it vould have served to conceal ze remaining Possessed.
I did not expect ze repetition of ze same bad arguments zat ve had before.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
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Sweet fancy Moses, and I had to check every single one of those links.
I mean, um…
I'm going to respond to three of the arguments, the ones I haven't already answered: I cut your translator because I really and truly think, to at least the same degree I believe you really and truly think I am, that you're Possessed. Even more than I did with Lesley, more than I did with Choey (whom I still don't trust, by the way); in each of their cases, while the logic checked out, there was something instinctual, something non-rational, that almost didn't. In your case, nothing adds up otherwise; if you're not Possessed, you sure fooled everyone. So why would I let you continue to spread confusion, especially using the help of Crimson and myself?* Second, Eliabulon and I probably haven't been cross-posting for the very simple reason that, when playing this game of Riil Lyfe, we play about 6-8 "hours" apart, and, even then, she plays earlier, me later; I don't know if you noticed, but when we first got on this bus, I was wishing her a good morning right as I was rarifying myself for the night. Third, and perhaps most importantly—you haven't noticed how I've thought you sounded like Eliabulon would? That there was a ~50% probability you were a very close study of her family's tactics, but also a ~50% chance you two were in cahoots, working a strategy that wouldn't have worked if she had pursued it herself, knowing full well I would be expecting it? If anything, your innocence would lessen my suspicion of her, but your guilt might just garner her a nomination for tomorrow. Have you not noticed the condiments appearing next to that hat up front? If I'm going to have to eat it, which is looking more and more likely, I'm going to at least enjoy it.
*Økåy, I mïssed thë hëavÿ mëtäl ümläuts ünd Nørsë mÿths.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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I regarded destroying the translator as local color, and not a game-based sabotage attempt. And any apparently obstructive local color trouble can generally be self-narrated out of. For example, I have no shaving cream on my face.
[ 21. March 2014, 17:53: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
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Otto believes he's been flying backwards, upside down with a honey jar on his head. He feels a little hurt now.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
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Well, Zapaterietxe, I suppose we'll find out for certain in about an hour, unless Dafyd happens by a little sooner.
But you said something interesting that I want answered: Why would Joostein's innocence make you less suspicious of Eliabulon? It would make mine even greater.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
But you said something interesting that I want answered: Why would Joostein's innocence make you less suspicious of Eliabulon? It would make mine even greater.
Joostein being guilty raises the possibility of him and the Grafinn collaborating; him being innocent rules it out. I suppose a better way of putting it would be less that him being innocent makes me less suspicious of her, than him being guilty makes me more. Given everything that's happened, I'm not as willing to give Gr.Ek.El. quite the same free pass I was willing to previously—though that may just be my general paranoia, more than anything in particular that she's said. If you look at the voting patterns (and make the usual assumptions, with the usual caveats applying), I think a coherent case can be made linking all three. This, of course, makes the (at this point) reasonable assumption that Joostein is Possessed. If not, if we're all wrong, if I'm wrong…ouch. We're in trouble. I mean, I have other scenarios that I ran last night, but things have changed since then, we have new information, etc. We'll have to rethink everything—which we could do, of course (we had to get to the point we're at somehow), but it can be done.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
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Dimthing Tours are pleased to announce that you have evicted Joostein (JFH) from the bus. He was innocent.
Night actions by Monday morning please.
[ 21. March 2014, 19:01: Message edited by: Dafyd ]
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
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WHAT????
WHAT?????
HOW???
HOW????????????????????????
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
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Well, that answers that.
I somehow feel better and worse at the same time.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
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This is bad news for you, Zapaterietxe. I'm sorry, but that's how the game rolls.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
WHAT????
WHAT?????
HOW???
HOW????????????????????????
ROTFL to see Zapaterietxe so surprised! Really? You're that startled? It seemed obvious to me from Joostein's valedictory speech that he was innocent. Not so much because of the contents of it, but because of the fact of it existing at that point in time.
We haven't discussed strategy for the doctor tonight. It seems there are two strategies.
The safe strategy is for you to protect yourself. That's good because it means we innocents retain the advantage of at least one person we know is innocent.
The risky strategy is to play Bluff with your choice of person to protect. If the Possessed believe you'll protect yourself, then they'll go after someone else. So you could try to guess who they'll go after and protect that person. But then if the Possessed guess you're doing this, they'll go after you (since you've left yourself undefended). So this strategy can be good in that it could protect someone who would otherwise be killed, but it has the risk that the Possessed will correctly second-guess you and kill you instead.
I wouldn't announce which strategy you're playing -- at least keep the Possessed guessing that much.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
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Zis is insane.
Vy vould an innocent person make a deliberately false claim? Vy vould zey risk us losing ze last specialist who could vin us ze game?
Ve cannot afford for innocents to act like zis. Mistakes are vun thing, but setting out to behave in a vay zat only ze guilty should behave is crazy.
Ve may have two more nights left to get zis right. Zere vill likely be nine left tomorrow, und three guilty votes. Next, if ve are wrong, vill be three out of seven. If ve are wrong tvice zen ve lose. If ze doctor saves somevun, ze numbers change. If ve are incredibly unlucky und ze Possessed kill zeir own sympathiser, ze numbers change, but ve cannot count on either.
Everyvun must think. Everyvun must speak. Und - if zey are innocent - everyvun must tell ze truth. Ve can vin, but not if ve have anozer costly und avoidable digression like zis vun.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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In case it's not clear in the previous post:
I switched who I was talking to: first paragraph about rotfl to Zapaterietxe, second and subsequent paragraphs about doctor strategy to John.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
We haven't discussed strategy for the doctor tonight. It seems there are two strategies.
You are correct. Ve should leave ze choice entirely to John (und he should say nothing about his plans at all, even as a bluff, in case it gives ze killers a clue).
Also no vun should appeal for his protection or say anything at all zat might influence his choice. Give ze killers no information at all, because John's action may vell vin zis for us if ze enemy make a mistake.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
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Even after those statements of his today, I was still kind of hoping that that comment about it being unlucky that John was the doctor meant that Joostein was guilty.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
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THIS ISN'T POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULDN'T BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS NO WAY, ABSOLUTELY NO WAY, FOR ANY OF THIS TO MAKE SENSE.
I can't do it. By the Absolute, it's impossible. Where did we go wrong? Where did I go wrong? How…we all thought he was guilty, or at least that's what we said! Who's playing me false? Who's playing us all false? What have we misinterpreted? What did I miss? HOW IS THIS POSSIBLE????
I thought there was confusion before. Now…I can't even think. I can't see straight. WHAT IS GOING ON? SOMEBODY TELL ME, WHAT IS HAPPENING?
This can't be right. There's NO POSSIBLE WAY this can be right. It doesn't make any sense. It doesn't fit in the context of what we think we know. The only way it works is if we're wrong about everything. Very, very wrong.
This is not included in the Infinite. This is…if I couldn't figure out a way to reconcile it with the fact I'm not guilty, that the evidence says I'm not, that I actually have to make a case to prove to myself that I'm not evil, I'd believe it. I was absolutely, genuinely, and truly convinced we'd just nabbed another nogoodnick. Absolutely convinced. I'd nominate the Grafinn tomorrow, we'd send her after the engine, I'd sue Dimthing Tours for every last dinar, and we'd be home free! It couldn't get any better than that, now could it!
And now this. THIS. Everything checked out. EVERYTHING checked out. Only one explanation fit the facts. He HAD to be Possessed. HAD to be. THERE IS NO OTHER EXPLANATION. HOOOWWWWWW?????
It's rare to see an angel truly rage; usually whole uninhabited planets get rearranged in the process. Having only a bus to work with, and one with sentient beings depending on its structural integrity and life support systems at that, limited the possibilities somewhat; what possibilities there were, however, were very completely exhausted. Matter and form were warped beyond recognition, then bent again into impossible shapes that defied every physical law; missing shades of blue, unknown colors, and strange new properties came into being and vanished in an instant; anything that could be subjected to Zapaterietxe's outburst—without, of course, violating any moral imperative—was. By the time he was done, the interior of the bus was a veritable and perfect portrait of fear, rage, frustration, sadness, anger—all the violent, irascible passions of a being whose soul had shattered.
I sent Joostein after the engine. He died because I stopped him. True, it might have been me next—but is that an excuse? True, we all voted for him to leave—but I am part of "all." True, we agreed on what the facts seemed to imply—but did I not present and interpret those facts? He's gone, and I pushed him.
How. Can. This. Be. True. I don't understand. It doesn't add up. What has…oh.
Zapaterietxe suddenly noticed the chaos, the terrified—but completely unharmed—other passengers among the great and terrible changes he had made to the bus's interior. While quite beautiful, if also quite frightening, it seemed unlikely that Dimthing Tours was going to be following his remodeling advice. In an instant, the bus snapped back to its previous configuration, and the angel rarified himself. Only the occasional gust of air or a rhythmic thumping, like a large being forcefully banging his head against a very sturdy wall (and the wall banging back) revealed his presence on the bus.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
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For no reason other than instinct, Otto was told by the FBC to suspect Hophtrig and the Grafinn. So he did, but then came over to consider that Hophtrig was friend. Grafinn, not so sure. Otto went to the Hophtrig Hidey Hole with Ios, and thought that this was a good place to go with the FBC. Otto has become greif stricken in addition to fearful and scared.
Are the pretenders both goodies and baddies. All Otto can say is that he is innocent, and has limited understanding as to how an innocent could have voted himself off the bus. He asks Hophtrig to take a good long sip from his own bottle and then waits to see if Hophtrig will and what happens. No backwashing says the FBC. Otto will lie down and bleed for a while now.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
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This next one is Barefoot Friar talking, and not John the Less:
I would give my life savings, small as it may be, to see Ariston's face right now. Not to make fun, or to laugh or anything...
But so I could tell if I could trust him or not.
JFH is probably screaming "NOOOOOOOO!" But in RL I can read people, and I want to read Ariston.
But barring a quick shipmeet this weekend, I cannot. Thus I must be suspicious of everyone onboard.
I'm going to think long and hard on my next move. I've a busy weekend ahead, so I may not post much, but I will be checking in and keeping tabs. I will be back here and there to offer any support, thoughts, or general mayhem I can.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
But barring a quick shipmeet this weekend, I cannot. Thus I must be suspicious of everyone onboard.
Given your "from" field, I'm expecting to see you five minutes ago.
(And I'm really surprised the roommates haven't complained about the thumping sound yet. That part is art imitating life)
[ 21. March 2014, 20:07: Message edited by: Ariston ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
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Let's play a game, folks:
Who are the Other Possessed?
Give me three suspects and concrete reasons why you suspect them. If you don't have anything concrete, say so. If you do, cite specific examples.
This game can extend into nomination time, but since everyone on this bus is liable to be killed overnight (s/he who has ears, let her/him hear), sooner is better. Just for the sake of Dafyd's eyes use italics instead of bold.
[ 21. March 2014, 20:11: Message edited by: Barefoot Friar ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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Zapaterietxe, that red button on the back wall doesn't seem to communicate with anything. Banging your head on it probably won't fix it.
Although we all voted for him, we didn't all think he was guilty. Obviously the Possessed and the Sympathizer didn't think he was guilty (although they may have been thinking WTF?! as much as the rest of us). I was about 50-50 on innocence/guilt, meaning I really had no sure idea on that, and used other principles to make my decision. Some may have believed he was innocent, but saw no other way than his constructed scenario "kill me first..."
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
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Joostein lied, Joostein went. That's all Hophtrig can say about that.
Hophtrig will take up Otto's suggestion and have a drink from the bottle in the face of this.
Hotphrig sushpects now, The tour guide, John and Ios
Will Otto have a drink now?
Maybe that bottle wasn't such a good idea, Hotphrog feels a bit sick, and it's so dark, where's the sanitary facilities?
Hophtrig's confused as anything and might have to think about this a bit more.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
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Fuck if I know. Okay, fine, I'll play, since it was kinda my game after all, and I did have some ideas once. At least one of them worked, once. And hey, this did work last time we tried it. Fine. All of these have the caveat that they come from me, and I did just blow it pretty spectacularly—so not only do I have a pretty nasty caveat against everything I say (I'll make you salt grains to take it all with), but I'm doubting everything I'm thinking right now too. You all aren't the only ones who don't trust anything I think right now.
But, returning to where we were last night, back when I could (maybe?) still think straight, Choey would be my #1 choice, for the reasons I outlined last night. I'm not sure what the idée fixe with Hophtrig is, though, or if that makes me more or less suspicious in the end, but she's still pursuing it.
Next up would be Otto, also for the reasons I outlined last night—and also because, more than anyone else, he and Choey benefited from today's chaos. This morning, Otto and Joostein were our main suspects; the whole Joostein shitstorm sure took the attention off of him in a big way. Given that today's vote was an absolute wash for anyone who might comb it for patterns, I'm going to say that anything I said yesterday about how you could form a coherent conspiracy between him, Reppik, and someone else still applies.
As for the third? Well, I have no real ideas here, only speculations. I have no idea about the Grafinn. None. I mean, there's not much logical reason to suspect her that I can see, now that there's no way she could have been collaborating with Joostein, but intuitively, I'm not so sure anymore. If we're assuming vote splitting yesterday, there are only two of us—Hophtrig and Ja'ayem—who are alive, voted for someone other than Reppik (and did so at a time it might still matter), and haven't been already mentioned. About Daisy, I know nothing. About Codine, I can tell not much more. John, we all have reasons to think proven innocent, and better ones than we do most anyone else—though following the loudest voice in the room may not be a good idea, especially given that it's sometimes mine. Ios, well, Ios just seems trustworthy to me. I've tried to explain why, but I'm not sure my explanations matter much, even to me, after today. I just do, I guess. And me? Look, I was convinced Joostein was guilty and I was innocent. I've had to check every memory I had (and the note I got from The Voice of The Absolute) to make sure I wasn't Possessed and just didn't know it. Whole lot of good it does us now—and not like it mattered after Reppik got booted—but The Voice claims I'm not merely innocent, but unreadable, probably due to being a creature without any specific matter or determinate form. I'd planned to use this as a touchstone to test false detectives—the Possessed would know I was innocent, not that I was unreadable, while a detective would know I was unreadable, and only from deduction that I was the innocent one. If one of our detective-types would be so kind as to come back from the dead and confirm this for you, and then stick around and help us, it'd be appreciated. What's that? "That's impossible?" Well shit. Guess that kinda sucks, then.
Shit. Shitshitshitshitshit. How did I mess this up so badly?
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
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'Other possessed?'?? I'm almost sure we would have had 3 doctors if you weren't the real one, so I'm nearly sure you must be talking about Reppik. Had you said that yesterday, Joostein would be alive.
Well it's clear that Joostein sincerely suspected [i/]Graffin Eliabub[/i] and I'm going to feel guilty if Joostein turns out to be right. Not sure there's anything concrete...I feel uneasy about her but then I always will.
She clearly was involved in this mess (along with primarily John, then Zappa with Codeine on the fringes) and is probably the most suspicious of the 4...but it could be a true clash of innocents (we know it was started by an innocent which counts both ways). In which case who's gaining.
Otto&Choey get let off the hook
Hophtrig, Ios, me, Daisy get off lightly.
That's nearly all the people who voted against killing the one who we now know to be mafia. So seems likely that there will be at least one baddie in it.
I haven't seen Choey show where she got the impression that led to the two teams comment. That comment does seem to have been milder than I realized from how it blew up. But it would be nice to see a quote (if nothing else it might make me think).
For a third I'll go for Otto as the other obvious beneficiary (but I can't see how it could have been orchestrated so it's not a good reason)
[Codefix. -A]
[ 21. March 2014, 22:43: Message edited by: Ariston ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
...there's not much logical reason to suspect her that I can see, now that there's no way she could have been collaborating with Joostein...
Apart from you, who else thought they were working together? I mean, I wondered (probably aloud) at some point, but have there ever been two who were more diametrically opposed than they?
Just because Joostein is innocent doesn't mean Eliabulon is less stinky. I'm still suspicious, but I won't go into why until I do my three suspects list (which I will probably get to after the "Friday Night Before Spring Break" episode of RealLyfe [the one where Mrs. Friar, a teacher, gets all giddy and says "Let's pack to go on a week-long trip!"]). I'm just saying that we really can't rule out any of the insane possibilities until we see a bit more proof. Who gets killed tonight, for instance.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
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I am going to re-read everything.
Ios is almost right about ze vote for Joostein – not everyvun knew he vas innocent, but (unless zey have communicated und vun of ze reasons I am going to re-read is to see if I can see such a clue) ze killers do not know who ze sympathiser is. Only ze sympathiser vould have been certain zat Joostein vas innocent. Ze killers did not know vether he vas their ally und following some plan to assist zem. I am not sure zat zis helps us.
No vun is an obvious suspect. So vat are my choices?
I still cannot account for Reppic vaiting until Otto vas cleared before claiming to be a specialist – if Otto vas innocent, I think Reppic vould have made his claim ven ve still had an obvious alternative to losing a valuable asset. has made an obvious mistake (und if, as some think, I had been colluding vith Reppic, zat vould have been my plan – a role claim is something zat is done vunce, und vunce only and zere is no point in doing it and not trying to get every advantage from it). But Otto himself is giving nothing avay. In zat first vote it vas impossible to get him to make any meaningful defence. He made so more a showing zat I have trouble believing he vas guilty. I think a killer vould have cared more. I suspect Otto more zan most of zose who voted for Reppic, but I am not confident zat I am right.
I think zat my analysis of ze sympathiser's likely behaviour on ze first day is sound. Ze tactical value of ze sympathiser is a vote zat ze killers can count on, und ze casting of zat vote is ze sympathiser's strongest signal to ze zillers zate is on zeir side. If ze sympathiser does not vote to save a killer, zeir is little point in zem having vun. I also think, though I am less sure, zat vun of Reppic's fellow killers is likely to have tried to dissuage us from voting for him, as I do not think he vas a sacrifice (even more so now zat Zapaterietxe has declared his role, und, unless somevun contradicts him, ve must assume him to be innocent. Unless he is anozer Joostein). Chooey und Ja'ayem are left from zat group. Hophtrig is ze third, und of zem ze vun I suspect least – I vould still say I think him innocent, but if ve somehow knew zat Chooey und Ja'ayem vere not guilty I think he vould have to be ze sympathiser.
Und I know zis is a change of strategy for me – I vanted to chase killers, not ze sympathiser. But as ve are two votes avay from defeat, ve need at all costs to deprive ze Possessed of a vote. Ve have group of three vich almost certainly includes vun guilty person, und possibly two. I vould concentrate on zat. I do not think ve can afford to take risks.
Using our two votes zere gives us ze best chance of reducing ze enemies numbers. Because of ze vay ze 50% vote rule vorks, ve are very strong in ze endgame, if ve have a known innocent (vich ze do), especially if ze enemy has only vun left at zat point. It is all numbers.
But still, I do not vant to nominate blindly vithin zat group. I vould like Zapaterietxe to review his former reasons for suspecting Choey. I vill (as I say) be reconsidering everything.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
Apart from you, who else thought they were working together? I mean, I wondered (probably aloud) at some point, but have there ever been two who were more diametrically opposed than they?
He suspected me at the start because he thought it vas a guilty act to discuss all ze passengers ven Zapaterietxe had asked only for three. I thought zat vas such a veak motivation zat his malice must have had a deeper motivation. Ve vere both wrong (but, I think, my reason vas at least rational).
I cannot understand taking more zan necessary discussion as evidence of guilt. Ve vin by discussion. I think ze attempt to close off discussion is suspicious (it is vat made Zapaterietxe suspect Reppic).
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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Graffin, I totally overlooked that the Possessed don't know who the Sympathiser is, and would (presumably) prefer to avoid killing him (or her or it). I have to go lie down now, I'm laughing so much imagining them with a double helping of WTF?! reaction as they try to figure out if Joostein is Innocent or a Sympathiser, and, if he's a Sympathiser, how what he's doing is supposed to help the Possessed.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
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At the front of the bus, atop the mustard pot next to Zapaterietxe's hat, a fog condenses, tentatively at first, then into a small form of a chastened angel, only a few inches tall, glowing with a very faint light. Someone done screwed up big time, and don't they ever know it.
I'm not sure what to make of this idea—or even if there's anything to be made of it—but if I were Possessed, today's confusion, with two innocents hurling their very best at one another and utterly ignoring anyone who might actually be guilty, would have been the greatest thing ever. Conversely, yesterday's situation, with us coming together as one and evicting Reppik, would have been the worst, especially once they could see it coming—but perhaps also when there was still some time to divert attention away from him.
The key difference (well, besides us not being evil) between us and the Possessed is that they know who is one of them, whereas we can only suspect and believe—yes, sometimes believe absolutely, but still, believe. Joostein and I slugging it out, creating arguments for why the other was absolutely, beyond a shadow of a doubt guilty, would have been perfect for the Possessed, who would themselves be ignored; all they'd have to do is lay low, let us do what we did, and if things ever slackened, add a bit more fuel to the fire that kept us from coming after them. To be quite honest, I think the Possessed are the only ones who had a clue what was happening today. In yesterday's case, however, they knew—even better than I did, who was convinced I'd nabbed one of them—that I'd nominated one of them previously, that John had nominated him the next day, and that a case was being made. In other words, it was exactly the kind of situation they'd want to intervene in, that they had no control over, and that they didn't know what was going on.
So maybe we could start here: who wasn't freaked out during today's Show? Who wasn't pressing a case, or trying to figure out what the @#$% was going on? Who was genuinely clueless (despite, in two cases, being convinced they were the ones with a clue), and who was sitting back, munching their popcorn, and enjoying the insanity, without ever trying to make sense of it? I'm going to guess that an innocent would try to see patterns, find something coherent to make sense of all that mess, while someone who was guilty, who already knew all the answers, wouldn't need to try to find them, but could remain content to remain out of sight, out of mind, and let the hurricane rage.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
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Joostein looked all in the eyes with a strange cool. They stood lined up, looking back with confusion, some with expectation, some with judgment in their faces. Sounds of old, sounds of Norway, terrible sounds of wicked righteousness were beginning to be heard from out of nowhere, seemingly from the skies outside.
"I knew this day would come and here it is. I face it with eyes open."
He hesitated for a second, looked at the Bloont Oobjectimoom he was leaving behind, then decided against leaving it and grabbed it. He grabbed John in an honest handshake as he passed him. He grabbed Grafinn Ekatarina Eliabulon's butt just for kicks.
With the Bloont Oobjectimoom over his shoulder, he moved towards the airlock. He walked unforced as ever, not in control of his situation but in control of himself with regards to it. Someone opened the first gate of the airlock and he stepped in. Joostein Käse turned around, and said with the deepest, gravest bass that had ever been heard on the planet of Dimthing:
"I love the smell of Xthonic Radiation in the evening. It smells like ... victory."
He stepped outside. The pale yellow skies of the Xthonic radiation were suddenly blackened with ravens, circling the bus in uncountable numbers, clouding the figure of Joostein. Then through the sky broke quick lines of horseriders, charging toward the bus with great haste. A sense of awe and fear moved across the bus, as they stared into the bus while passing by the windows. Then their leader darted over to Joostein, and still sitting on the back of her horse gently lifted him up, untouched by his great size like as if he was a three-year-old boy. A sudden battle-cry, and they broke off and vanished into the yellow skies. Joostein would reach his Valhalla. The travelers on the Dimthing Tourist Bus hoped they had as much to look forward to.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
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Okay, but you're not going to like the answer.
Off the top of my head, without having gone back to double check, I think the list includes Zapaterietxe, Eliabulon, Choey, and Otto. Oh, and maybe Ja'ayem and Hophtrig. I'm reasonably certain Ja'ayem was away playing RealLyfe, but he was quiet all day nonetheless. I cannot speak for the others. There were a few dressings and frills thrown in, and I haven't had time to go check if any of it looks forced or not.
So yeah, basically half the bus.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
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(JFH -- Congrats on 500 posts! And the 500th was epic!)
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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I am considering all possibilities, and I do mean all possibilities. I won't have any idea who I might suspect most until I find out who gets killed tonight, and then of course my opinions will shift depending on who nominates whom, and why. My opinions won't necessarily shift in any obvious way, because for every action or statement I will be wondering: is this sincere? A bluff? A double bluff? A triple bluff? Etc. and at some point in any case I won't be able to comparatively weigh all the logical possibilities, and some small thing, whether subjective or objective, will be the final straw that tips me one way or the other. At least, if I look at my decision-making process of the previous two selections of engine-retrievers, that's how it will be for me. (Different types of things tipped me on each day.)
Actually, I won't be considering *all* possibilities. I don't feel a Zapaterietxe-like need to check my own origin story from the Absolute. I'm going to assume that no illicit side communication has happened, i.e. no private messages among bus passengers except among the Possessed. I'm going to assume Dafyd hasn't let anything slip in his private communications. I'm going to assume that no mistakes have been made in Dafyd's announcements of roles for dead passengers. I'm going to assume that everyone is committed to winning for their assigned role. Oh, no, wait a minute, I'm not quite going to assume that. Someone or someones might be playing for maximum entertainment value. I'll consider that. But negative reasons for switching sides, such as Eliabulon's hypothetical that the Sympathizer had a falling-out with the Possessed and switched sides out of pique, I'm going to assume there's none of that.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alban:
Joostein lied, Joostein went. That's all Hophtrig can say about that.
Hophtrig will take up Otto's suggestion and have a drink from the bottle in the face of this.
Hotphrig sushpects now, The tour guide, John and Ios
Will Otto have a drink now?
Maybe that bottle wasn't such a good idea, Hotphrog feels a bit sick, and it's so dark, where's the sanitary facilities?
Hophtrig's confused as anything and might have to think about this a bit more.
Otto thinks the sickness is from events not the bottle, and the FBC also wants a drink, but Otto doesn't give animals or apparel food or beverages meant for beings with legses. So Otto drinks with Hophtrig, eyeing him with care because Otto not wanting to be puked on. Suggests to Hophtrig he skip to the loo my darling.
Otto still wonders about Grafinn Ekaterina but if suspecting her would also have to suspect Hophtrig and now Ios. The FBC doesn't know any more either. So maybe it is right that everyone is a suspect and it is one big lottery now. And goodness knows who?! Am be fraidences dominate Otto's mind, quaking in his three boots, with the FBC also shaking along with him. Otto is bleeding a bit from banging leg so lying down again and hoping not be killed by bad ones. Cries self in terror and now drunkenness to sleep. FBC snuggles in. Likes bed time stories but these ones are scary ones.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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(My previous post would have been a double-post if it hadn't ended up being cross-posted.)
Ios gazed unseeingly, up through the roof of the Hophtrig Hidey Hole, up through the roof of the bus, up past the darkening yellow xtonic clouds where the riders had vanished, and wondered if she would ever know such joy as she had seen on Joostein's face as he was borne aloft. The mysteries of what motivates the souls of beings within the realm of the Absolute danced before her, sometimes transparently in focus, sometimes clouded, sometimes bursting through with tremendous force, and sometimes in shapes which surprised, startled and delighted her, so different were they than anything she had ever before imagined.
[ 22. March 2014, 01:44: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
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Otto, let me help you with that cut. Good lord, that looks nasty. Why didn't you come get a bandage?
Since I've got you here, I may as well ask: What makes you suspect Ios? She seems nice enough.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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I'm curious as to why Ekaterina, Hophtrig and I are suspected for apparently related reasons. I would suspect us (if I did suspect us, which I'm not decided if I do or don't) for entirely different reasons. (Well, obviously I don't suspect myself, but if I were someone else suspecting me.)
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
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Ios because friends with Hophtrig. Hophtrig because Ekaterina and Hophtrig jumped to a sucpicious nomination at start of trip. Nope it isn't enough is it? Otto drunk and in pain.
Are you doctoring Otto with a bandage? Thank you.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
I'm not sure what to make of this idea—or even if there's anything to be made of it—but if I were Possessed, today's confusion, with two innocents hurling their very best at one another and utterly ignoring anyone who might actually be guilty, would have been the greatest thing ever. Conversely, yesterday's situation, with us coming together as one and evicting Reppik, would have been the worst, especially once they could see it coming—but perhaps also when there was still some time to divert attention away from him.
I do not know ven you vere absolutely convinced of Joostein's guilt, but for me it was after John claimed to be the doctor, und I vorked out zat John must be telling ze truth. I suspected him before (und strongly so) for ze same reason you suspected Reppic, vich vas making attempts to prevent und discourage ze sort of discussion zat innocent people need to have.
Ze role claim moved me from suspicion to certainty. Innocent people do not do zat. I am still baffled by ze qvestions I asked yesterday. Vat vould Joostein have done if ze real doctor had been me, or some ozer person he could have said vas lying? Ze only answer zat makes sense is he vould have accused zem, because if not, vy make ze claim at all? But zat vould be insane for an innocent person. I still do not understand his thinking.
I know zat Joostein vas suspicious of me, but all his reasons for zis seem to me to be clearly bad vuns. But I am not telling vith him, but vith ze rest of you. Zose of you who doubt me (vich you should - ve should doubt everyvun who is not proven innocent) I vould velcome ze chance to explain anything zat you see as a reason for suspicion. I am avare zat ven I argue my motive is to test ozers und find truth, und I do not vorry too much about how zis makes me appear, but ve cannot afford mistakes now, so I vish to address any reason zere is to doubt.
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
I do not know ven you vere absolutely convinced of Joostein's guilt, but for me it was after John claimed to be the doctor, und I vorked out zat John must be telling ze truth. I suspected him before (und strongly so) for ze same reason you suspected Reppic, vich vas making attempts to prevent und discourage ze sort of discussion zat innocent people need to have. [/QB]
Oh of course Eliab, you wouldn't be distracted by all the possibilities we have to consider.
If you are innocent you know John is innocent and therefore more trustworthy than the unknown Joostein. So that becomes easy. And you know he's misguided or bad.
Of course if guilty, you didn't quite know but are still in a good place to suspect the doctor situation and have to play the misguided/bad card.
I in contrast was still considering him being the doctor or being right (as well as wrong and bad and bad with you) as the lynch request began so that biased me to consider innocence more strongly. And more so after seeing the speeches after lynching, so by the announcement little surprise.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
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Oh my god I am so confused.
"I'm telling you the truth! He's scum!"
"No, I'm telling you the truth! She's scum!"
"No, you're scum!"
"You are!"
"So's your face!"
"Boing fwip!"
[ 22. March 2014, 11:08: Message edited by: Barefoot Friar ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
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The reason I asked everyone for three ideas of who might be Reppik Tew's co-conspirators is because it seemed to work well on the first day. We need more information. Saying that you suspect someone isn't the same as nominating them or voting for them. I know it will be difficult; I suspect it will be only marginally easier now than it was the first day. Still, we managed just fine until one of the innocents decided to play cowboy instead of actually trying to reinforce his argument.
So as I set out to determine who my three suspects might be, I'm faced with a few unavoidable and unpleasant facts. The first is that someone clever read both Crimson's and Celandine's posts and worked out that they were detectives. In the case of Celandine, it was a very subtle tell that I completely missed until after the fact. Although I did see and wonder about the post itself, it never occurred to me that it might be a detective post. Now, I know the odds, and the odds are good that a random hit would have missed the detective. This was planned. This was subtle. This was the work of someone who has played this game a lot, and probably with this particular group of people.
Well, that narrows down the list quite a bit, doesn't it?
The second fact is that whomever is smart enough to run the Possessed effort and figure out Celandine must also be a master of disguise. Misdirection, bluff upon layers of bluff, hiding in plain sight, subtly avoiding key issues.
Who has the experience, the ability to bluff and lie, and the sheer chutzpa to pull all this off?
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
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I'm still going through the transcripts (this may be a while…bear with me), but it may be that figuring out that Lucy was a likely detective is a fair bit easier for the Possessed than for us. Detectives and doctors would likely want to keep a moderately low profile, just as the Possessed, to avoid drawing our attention to lynch them (bad) or the Possessed's attention for killing them (also bad). The difference between us and the Possessed, though, means that they know who's lurking on the edges because they're guilty (them), and who might be doing it because they're watching over us. Thus, if they chose to assassinate a lurker, and they don't run the risk of killing one of their own, their chance of hitting someone important is going to be higher than ours of sussing them out.
So those of us who look to behavior: who's acting like Crimson and, especially, Lucy?
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
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Not to interrupt anything, but just out of nowhere, in the middle of the night, the radio switched on with faint buzzing and scratching noises. A voice from an unidentified member of the passengers rang out in the darkness:
"Ve did not order ze radio on! Who is responsible for zis?"
No one knew, and despite the intense attempts by Hophtrig to turn it off as well as despite the obvious lack of a power source, the radio seemed to tune into some sort of radio station. However, judging from the character and the emotions it evoked in the dumbstruck and attentive passengers, it seemed the radio's selection was fueled on expressions of the collective past over the past couple of days - not of specific situations or words as much as the general feel and the overall collective emotional impression. It was very odd indeed, yet everyone felt certain that during the nights to come, and only during nighttime, this might be a recurring phenomenon, bringing back voices of the past through musical expressions. The first piece of music was not quite to the fabulous Otto's taste (although the beautiful but deadly FBC seemed to dig it), but the passengers were all at the same time startled yet amused at this newly found oddity on Dimthing. Hophtrig was heard wondering where to call to make requests, but it seemed this was reserved to people who had moved on to other locations, or other universes, than that of the Dimthing Tourist Bus.
----------
(Note to all: as with all experiences of haunting known to humanity, these radio sounds and songs have little relevance for the ongoings of the world. They can not be taken as anything but oddities adding colour to the world - colour but not in any way detail or deeper understanding.)
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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Ios averted her eyes quickly. She was far too confused to deal with local color, and knew if she even started to look, she would start looking for subconscious unintended hints.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
Oh of course Eliab, you wouldn't be distracted by all the possibilities we have to consider.
If you are innocent you know John is innocent and therefore more trustworthy than the unknown Joostein. So that becomes easy. And you know he's misguided or bad.
Of course if guilty, you didn't quite know but are still in a good place to suspect the doctor situation and have to play the misguided/bad card.
Ze point is zat Celandine had cleared John. So John vas innocent. Zerefore ven John claimed to be ze doctor, I believed him. Zerefore Joostein vas lying, vich (I vas sure) meant he vas guilty.
Ze possibility zat I did consider vas that Joostein (or John for zat matter) might be lying und still be innocent. I did not think zat any innocent vould do such a thing.
I think zat vun of ze most valuable things zat any special role gives us, is ze ability for ze specialist, ven he thinks ze moment is right, to say who he is. If somevun lies about zat, zere is an innocent person who can immediately contradict zem, and ve have a 50% chance of picking the liar straightavay. Zerefore no innocent person should lie about zis, because zat inevitably brings suspicion on ze opposed claimants, und if both are innocent, ve get vat happened today - a vaste of time und life (und time is life).
Vich means, of course, zat Zapaterietxe is now a confirmed innocent, if no vun contradicts him. I do not expect zey vill, since I think he is telling ze truth. But if I have been fooled, zen our real unreadable should speak out, und expose ze claim. If vun of ze killers tries zis, of course, ze best result for zem is zat ve lynch Zapaterietxe, find zat he vas innocent, und zen finish off ze liar. If no vun claims, ve believe ze angel, und have two known innocents. Zis is a good thing.
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
Ze point is zat Celandine had cleared John. So John vas innocent. Zerefore ven John claimed to be ze doctor, I believed him.
You know the first line (or are bad) as you can discount the other statement (about you)as a guess. We suspect it. But can't bring the same.certainty which is what id just realised you can have.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
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For the convenience of the living, Dimthing Tours would like to ask deceased entities to keep any comments they may wish to make brief and infrequent. And there should be strictly nothing even hinting at opinions of the guilt or innocence of any living person.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
You know the first line (or are bad) as you can discount the other statement (about you)as a guess. We suspect it. But can't bring the same.certainty which is what id just realised you can have.
I understand und agree.
I knew zat Celandine had investigated vun person (zat she lived to report on), und zat it could not be me. Zerefore I vas sure zat she had cleared John. I can see zat for everyvun else zere vas a qvestion vether it vas John or I she had checked.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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Wait, Eliabulon, how did you know Celandine hadn't investigated you? And how did you know she had in fact reported on her investigation?
Those both seem like bizarre statements to me, but perhaps too much reflection on the bizarre events of the last three Dimthing Days and Nights has left me seeing bizarreness (bizarritude? bizarrity?) everywhere, like a cat jumping at its shadow (I'm so confused I'm not even sure if that's mixing cliches or if it's a standard cliche).
Ios examines self. "Am I bizarre?" The answer comes floating back from the aether (*): "No more than usual."
(*) aether: trying to seem erudite, but too lazy to look up the HTML for the ligature ae. Ether is what I would normally write. Or is aether actually the normal spelling for the Empyrean, and ether is only the sedative gas? Don't mind me, it's been a really ghastly few days in my Real Lyfe app, plus I saw a car accident today.
Not only that, but here's what happened: prologue: driving on the interstate, I say to my passenger "I need a bathroom, I hope we see a McDonald's soon." (McD's is passenger's preferred choice for reliable bathrooms.) No sooner do I close my mouth, than we come up to a sign for McD's at the next exit. Wow, that was convenient and amazing!
An hour later, driving on the Interstate in heavy traffic, a car cuts wildly in front of me, and proceeds to veer dangerously to quickly change lanes several more times, moving from the far left towards the far right lane (We drive on the right here in Ios-land). Angrily, I say "He's crazy! I hope we find him in a wreck by the side of the road with six police cars and one tow truck!" No sooner do I close my mouth, than he misjudges his final lane change and crashes into a car, and they both go spinning around and end up in the breakdown lane with major damage.
Wow.
I decided I wasn't going to wish for anything else for the rest of the day.
Ios wished she hadn't drawn the Real Lyfe challenge card "Drive Seven Hundred Miles Round Trip Touching Six States And Be Back In Time For Chorus On Sunday Night." Silver lining, it gave her lots of time behind the Real Lyfe app's surprisingly realistic steering wheel to reflect on the recent events on planet Dimthing, localization Bus.
[ 23. March 2014, 00:23: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
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Quick, Ios, wish for the Possessed to freely admit to their wrongdoing and nominate themselves!
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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Ios, who has drawn the Help A Relative subchallenge in Real Lyfe, hopes she hasn't in a moment of inattention wasted her third wish on something completely impossible like "I wish these frigging [...add as many expletives as you have ever heard of...] TV/DVD/Cable remotes weren't so frigging [...add all the same expletives again...] complicated and why oh why didn't I the frig [...add all the same expletives again, but change them from adjectives to nouns...] write down how to fix it the last time I was here, figuring out the exact same [...you know the expletive drill by now...] problem", stands up straight, clicks her heels together three times (not guaranteed to work since she is not wearing ruby slippers), and addresses the Unknown Absolute who has seen fit to amuse and then terrify her with her first two wishes, and wishes:
I would like the Sympathizer X and the two Possessed Y and -- (oh crap I was trying to use completely anonymous letters that wouldn't inadvertently and incorrectly indicate that I had any frigging [...expletives as per usual...] idea who was what at this point in time), uh, as I was saying the two Possessed Y and, uh, Q, to confess themselves immediately, in unambiguous terms that leave no residual possibility that we might instead believe the arguably more logical explanation that three Innocents had just falsely declared themselves to be Baddies, and would then helpfully nominate themselves on Dimthing Days Four, Five, and Six, and cooperate in casting their votes so as to vote themselves out the airlock on the same aforementioned Dimthing Days, numbering three (3) Dimthing Days in number (#) that we play out this calm and rational conclusion completely unlike anything else that has happened heretofore on this bus, and if You would grant this, we wouldn't even mind if they still kill someone on each of Dimthing Nights Four and Five (that making two (2) someones all told to be killed as we were saying we could accept) who isn't being protected by the Doctor, or is that 'aren't being protected by the doctor'?
"Please."
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Wait, Eliabulon, how did you know Celandine hadn't investigated you? And how did you know she had in fact reported on her investigation?
Because she expressed suspicion of me at ze end of ze second day. I know for certain zat I am innocent (as ve all have personal and certain knowledge of our own allegiences). If she had investigated me, I (und only I) know for certain zat she vould have found me innocent, und vould no longer have been suspicious of me.
Vith hindsight, I think it is clear zat a "firm und deliberate" statement about John being trustvorthy, made right at ze start of zat day (just after her vun reportable investigation) vas meant as an indication of vat she knew. Und I think zat John actually being innocent (because he is ze uncontradicted doctor) supports zat inference.
Ze point zat Ja'ayem made, vich is right, vas zat (on ze assumption zat I am telling ze truth about being innocent) I must have been more certain zat Celandine investigated John zan anyvun else could be, because I could immediately discount ze only possible alternative, vich vas zat she had investigated me. I think zat my conclusion is ze right vun even vithout inside knowledge of John or I, but Ja'ayem is right zat it vas an especially easy vun for me to reach.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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Thanks, Eliabulon, I shall consider that. At the moment, if someone on the bus told me 2+2=4, I would find myself wondering (a) is it true? (b) would an innocent say this? and (c) could a guilty person say this, and if so, why would they say it? Fortunately there's a lot of meditation time left before Dimthing Morning in which to try to sort out something, anything, about recent events and statements before we dive back into the fray in earnest for our next Dimthing Day.
Your comment that "ve all have personal and certain knowledge of our own allegiences," has me thinking: what if the Sympathizer got told the wrong people for who is Possessed -- but hasn't been told that s/he/it has been told the wrong people? I don't for an instant believe that has happened on this bus tour (excuse me a second, I need to make a note to myself: "check that sun is still rising in east in morning"). But wouldn't it be funny if so? Oh, imagine the chaos. Imagine the amusement. Imagine the bewilderment. Imagine the range of reactions as passengers slowly come to suspect that logic has been turned completely upside down. Imagine the poor Sympathizer and his perfect gobsmacked reaction the first time a Mafioso is revealed, contra the Sympathiser's list. Oh ho ho ho ho ho. Wouldn't that be fun for a future bus tour?
Oh wait, in effect it would be just like this bus tour. Never mind.
(Make your choice of smiley to end this post. Sorry, I'm completely giddy. Stone cold sober, but completely giddy. Something about this trip has removed all inhibitions.)
Ios twirls up and down the aisle. juggling
,
, and
, trying to decide which is the prettiest.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
*inhale*
*exhale*
Wait. I'm made of air. Why am I breathing?
So, reviewing yesterday, in light of what we learned today (Lucy's innocent/the detective; Reppik's guilty; John's innocent/the doctor; Joostein is innocent; and, not like anyone can actually confirm or deny this without it descending into "I am Spartacus" madness, I'm the unreadable innocent), here's what I've come to think, as I work through the transcript:
—Choey looks really bad. I wanted to find out that I was wrong about her. I wanted evidence I could clear her, that she'd be Leslie/Joostein Pt. 3. Unfortunately, knowing that John and I are innocent, and assuming that she knows it as well, this looks like an attempt to rope two, possibly three, innocents together into a conspiracy. It also looks like she's a bit quick on the draw to defend Otto—indeed, using the fact John and I had voiced some suspicion of him (though I have to admit, my suspicion was rather marginal) to indict us. The fact that Otto nominates Choey's favorite stalking horse a little later doesn't bode particularly well for either one of them. Perhaps—just perhaps—we might have been onto something this time last night.
—Daisy and Otto are confused. Okay, perhaps easy enough to explain as it being early in the day. Perhaps explainable as us having nominated Otto, a possible Possessed being, as well as Reppik, a known Possessed, and having thrown them for a loop. Perhaps also explained as confirmation bias on my part as I look for anyone who's confused. Moving on.
—The Grafinn seems to be backing off on a known innocent, even as she starts to pursue others. Also supported my suspicion of Reppik, though that may be support of me, not my suspicion. Seems to think of both Joostein and Reppik as about equally suspicious—and, as we now know, they weren't equally guilty. Voices mild suspicion of Otto, mild innocence of Hophtrig. On the whole, this bit, especially the suspicion of parties on opposite party lines, seems to imply that she's working from the same position of innocence—in both the usual and literal senses of the word—the rest of us are. Maybe there really isn't a good reason to suspect her after all.
—Very helpful summary from Joostein. *headthunk*
—Okay, an analysis post discussing us (rather than the role of the Cultist) from Reppik. While we know he's an unreliable narrator, we know he's an omniscient unreliable narrator, whose motives we know. So. Lies our Known Possessed Told Us. "No one will vote for Hophtrig for fear of being branded Possessed:" perhaps we should read this as "John, you've cut off a chance for us to split the vote?" At any rate, someone did vote for Hophtrig, and I think I did, without remembering it, act as Reppik predicted and branded her Possessed. He claimed he'd vote for Otto, but, well, didn't. Also, he's sure going after John here. Not that we need more confirmation that John's innocent, but I'll take it. We also get a "my only hope is to split the vote between me and Otto, or everyone vote en masse for Hophtrig." I don't know if this indicts Otto, that Reppik thinks that we'd split the vote between the two of them, but him hoping we'd all vote for Hophtrig does seem to make him look better. So, out of all this, I think John and Hophtrig come out looking better, Otto and Choey come out looking ambiguous to every-so-slightly worse, and Reppik just looks bad. But we knew that last part already.
—Joostein and Eliabulon start arguing; Ios talks strategy. Given that it's what I'm doing right now, I'm inclined to call it a sensible one. Ios then tries to make sense of the J/E spat. Those who think the Absolute scripts our lives, that we are Its puppets and slaves, conscious beings that satisfy Its desire to validate Its own perfect self-consciousness (and love of a good mystery story every once in a while) might call this "foreshadowing."
—We also get Eliabulon trying to defend me, an innocent, against Joostein, ditto. Somehow, this doesn't seem like an especially good idea if you benefit from either of us dying. Blast. I was really hoping I'd get something to validate my vague suspicions of her (and nab a baddie); instead, she just comes out looking as misguided and innocent as Joostein and I.
—And now, More Foreshadowing, again from Ios:
quote:
One of the difficulties of us all laying out our logic is that if we disagree with each others' logic, as many of us seem to do, that becomes grounds for suspecting each other, I'm not saying this very well. I don't mean that we shouldn't lay out our logic, but it is noticeable that we don't agree about what is logical. This is part of why I think the innocents all by ourselves can create confusion and division among ourselves; the Possessed barely have to lift a finger during the daytime.
—A rare post from Codine, voicing suspicion/wanting more information from both Reppik and Otto, not seeing much against Hophtrig. If we assume Reppik's bad, Hopfrog isn't, and Otto might be, this is…uh…well, likely good, but still ambiguous. Still, it's something from The Hooded One, so I'll take it.
—Otto's defense (which, now that I look at it, seems to be repeated): Who, Me Murderous? I'm New Here, I Can't Be Guilty! Codine isn't convinced. I don't think I am either, but…
—Hophtrig likes someone not thinking he's guilty. Hophtrig doesn't think he's that crazy. Hophtrig may be stating the obvious. Hophtrig also doesn't seem to have bad reasons for acting as he does.
—Voting Opens, or, at least, we're told by the Voice of the Absolute that it's going to close. Almost immediately, Choey votes for Hophtrig. Now, we did have a known Possessed saying that only someone who was Possessed (and/or Otto) would do that, so either they had a miscue there; they've changed strategy; it's a bluff that happens to mask voting patterns ("but Reppik said we wouldn't vote that way, I voted that way, therefore I can't have worked with him"); or she's innocent and chasing after Hophtrig like Joostein did GEE. Pretty eager to start the voting off with someone I'm increasingly thinking is innocent (and Reppik said could be his salvation if everybody voted for him).
—Ja'ayem thinks through the three candidates, thinks there might be a Hophtrig/Otto alliance, and abandons his stated earlier intention to vote for Reppik. A vote for Otto; if Otto is innocent (an Ja'ayem guilty), the "I was going to vote Reppik" line could be an attempt to hedge and look confused, even when he knew Reppik was guilty and Otto wasn't; if J. is innocent, then I'm guessing he was probably actually uncertain (duh) and we don't learn much about Otto.
—GEE still wants to vote for Reppik, but thinks Otto looks bad. Confusion? All three being guilty, and she doesn't know which way to split the vote? I'm thinking the former; after all, Hophtrig's still a live option at this point, and there's no way all four of them can be guilty.
—Hophtrig votes for Otto, who wants him gone. Makes sense, so long as H&O aren't both guilty. I think this rules out Ja'ayem's proposed H&O alliance; if O. is guilty, H. isn't, and if H. is bad, O. isn't. I'm guessing that H. isn't going to vote for his comrade O. when there's still a very good chance O. could get voted off the bus, but would vote for the (possibly innocent even if H. is, possibly not) being who accused him, especially when there's a chance he could set up a pattern to throw him off the bus. Vindictive, yes. Evil, perhaps. Makes sense no matter how you slice it? Most certainly.
—The Grafinn announces her intention to vote for Reppik, unless, of course, the vote swings for Otto. Granted, at this point, it looks like it might be doing that, though its still pretty early. It's not a committal vote, it seems to just want someone, anyone, gone, and if Otto is innocent, it could be read as an attempt to avoid having to commit to a bluff that would debus a fellow Possessed, but, then again, she is pretty obvious in her anti-Reppik preferences.
—Well well. If it isn't me. And our first vote for Reppik, too!
—Lucy—known innocent—thinks peer pressure is building toward Otto. She also didn't think him entirely guilty. Thus, Reppik gets it, and the vote is tied. I should probably mention, for the sake of mentioning it, that this vote was made on her deductive powers, not her detective ones; it also makes me wonder if she didn't investigate The FBC the night she was killed, though exactly why—perhaps because he was the second place candidate, the one she couldn't find evidence to convict?—is hard for me to figure out, much less explain.
—Huh. Interesting post from Reppik:
quote:
...despite my inital misgivings about Hophtrig, Otto now seems more suspicious to me.
However, seeing as Choey has had the courage to stand against John's opinion, others may too, so I will wait and side with whichever "non-reppik" vote helps me most.
I read this as clearing Hophtrig, perhaps clearing Otto (or showing that Reppik is willing to stir up sentiment towards anyone who isn't him; after all, he is the most valuable of the three Possessed, and, just as importantly, might not want to be debussed—but, then again, it could be an attempt to keep the vote split, rather than allowing momentum to carry it in the way it was going, which would get someone thrown out), and really making Courageous Choey, in her valiant stand against an innocent, look really, really, bad.
—We also get treated to some Possessed confusion, perhaps coming from him being stuck and the tide going against him. Eliabulon sets him straight, though. Point to her—and what do we make of the fact that the only vote that could help him in the end was to vote for nobody? Anything?
—Lesley votes for nobody.
—Ios thinks GEE, John, and myself are innocent, and that us all suspecting Reppik is not a good sign for him. We all know one of us is innocent; we (okay, you) don't know, but the evidence suggests, that I am as well; and I'm coming to the conclusion that I probably won't have to be eating my hat after all. She's also surprised that Choey chose to exfenistrate (such a great word) Hophtrig. For whatever else Ios may say about herself, I think her instincts are spot on. Ios, if you're still listening (yes, I know it's long), what are your thoughts on Choey (and, well, anyone else) tonight?
—John votes for Reppik.
—Ios gives us a voting update, and her reasoning in voting for Reppik.
—Otto votes for Reppik. His reasons, of course, boil down to "it's obvious, right?" He also thinks the same of Hophtrig, whom I'm pretty sure is innocent. So here's my question: if Otto's innocent, this makes sense (it makes sense to vote for the person who's currently in the lead, to make sure they get booted, rather than you). It also almost makes sense if he's guilty, in that, at this point, it's pretty clear that Reppik's in it up to here. It's not certain that he's good as dead, so you're not going to kill off one of your own necessarily, but I wouldn't want to bet against him seeing nightfall. It's a good, safe vote if you're Possessed at this point—nobody's going to accuse you of voting late, nobody can say you voted early, you blend in perfectly, it's a good vote if you think you know how the wind is blowing. Of course, he could just be following the crowd, or just not know. I do find it odd that he didn't vote for Hophtrig, whom he found guilty enough to nominate, and still ostensibly thinks is Possessed. If he and Choey are both Possessed, being the only two beings who voted for the outlier suspect would be a Very Bad Thing—and immediately obvious. I'm not quite sure what to make of this, to be honest; yesterday, I would have said he was guilty, but today, I'm a bit more hesitant to do so.
—Reading this over, knowing that Joostein is innocent, maybe he is just trying to make us squirm a bit. Maybe he's trying to get the Grafinn in particular, to make her cast a decisive vote to sway things towards one of the Possessed, or to swing it the other way. I suspect the latter, given his suspicions of her—and, come to think of it, it seems like a good strategy, especially if whomever we'd lynched turned out to be innocent (get the other one the next day, they're guilty, well, don't Eliabulon and I look bad for chasing Reppik) but, again, we've seen my ability to read Joostein on very fine display.
—E. votes for Reppik, while still not liking Otto. It's either R. or nobody.
—R. repeats something he said earlier, votes for nobody (hey, it'd be good for him!) and then says something that is, come to think of it, perfectly true:
quote:
And i know I'm too late to influence most of you - but while i still have a chance of survival i urge you to let me live, and see if what i am able to do during the night helps us in our cause.
Well, actually, I guess he could do something during the night that would help the "us" he was a part of in their cause…
—And then, confusion. "What? Why didn't you say something earlier? What have we done?" John, Ios, and GEE are shocked. Another point for the Grafinn.
—Ja'ayem votes for Reppik
—As does Codine, at the last moment. Eh, better late than never. Still, I fail to see the attraction of this "Riil Lyfe" game you all keep describing, especially if Ios's description is at all accurate. Okay, fine, I've tried to play it as well, and, while not without its charms, there are parts I don't much like. Really, I've heard of an expansion they're coming out with—"RL: Fearst Tait"—that involves guessing on the basis of subtle and often affected cues if the strangers you're talking to in contrived situations are normal and harmless, or crazed psychopaths out to get you. I don't get it.
And that's all, folks. Lesley proves herself innocent (thanks Lesley! You tried to save us from ourselves! Sorry it didn't work), Reppik gets unmasked, and night falls.
So what do I get from this? Ios is frikkin' psychic, Choey doesn't look too hot, Otto looks better—but maybe just because he looks ambiguous, rather than flat-out bad, the Grafinn seems like she might not be guilty, and the Possessed are probably looking to kill anyone but me tonight—after all, it would prove that I'm right about who and what I say I am, put my analyses into context, and, especially if I'm actually right, backfire spectacularly. Of course, if I'm wrong about everything, and distracting everyone else from them, that's also reason enough to keep me alive. So those of you who are neither guilty nor me: it may not be much hope, but hope to see you all tomorrow.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
I just thought of something, and I can't believe I missed it this morning.
Last night, I was going after Choey pretty hard. Everybody saw it. Everybody knew I had it in for her, that I was hot on her trail, that I would almost certainly be putting her name in the hat in the morning. I didn't—there were enough proposals by the time I condensed/I wanted to see if I'd flushed any game worth hunting/I thought Joostein was drawing a bit of attention to himself, and not in a good way—but think about it: if you were one of the Possessed, and somebody innocent that you didn't want to act directly against was hot on a false lead during the night, what would make them look really, really, bad?
A: The corpse of the being they had been building a false case against.
If the Possessed really wanted me discredited for good, and if Choey were innocent, killing her off would have been perfect. It would have been me in the dock instead of Joostein and Eliabulon, and it's hard to argue with a body. In fact, it might have been a better strategy than killing off Lucy, given that the evidence pointing to her being the detective was circumstantial at best, slim and visible only in retrospect; while I was pretty sure Crimson was making a role claim, I completely missed any hint Lucy was making one.
Shutting down an innocent who had lead the charge against one of your own, then being able to lead him to the airlock? That would have been perfect—a sure thing.
Yet Choey still lives.
The smoking gun the Possessed could have possessed just isn't there—indeed, if she's Possessed, can't be there.
Of course, I'd feel more secure making this case tomorrow—that'd be two blown chances on the part of the Possessed, and absolutely no chance of them hearing me and deciding to change their hit to Choey, if I turn out to be really wrong again—but I'm less certain that I'll be here tomorrow than that Choey is up to no good.
We'll see how this plays out tomorrow. See you all then.
![[Angel]](graemlins/angel.gif)
[ 23. March 2014, 06:33: Message edited by: Ariston ]
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey still thinks actions speak much louder than words. Everyone has appeared to have had mistaken suspicions over the last two days. No-one has a flawless track record, and it is silly to toss people out because they did not get it right first up.
I am still waiting to hear why everyone thinks Hophtrig and Jay'em must be innocent, when they did not vote for Reppik Tew. It seems obvious to me to look there. This is not a vendetta, it is common sense. Joostein being innocent also puts a question mark over the Grafinn, who wanted him off from the first, and Zapaterietxe who was extremely vocal about wanting him out.
If John is the doctor, then he is innocent, as Lady Celandine said. If he does not protect himself tonight he is jeopardizing the chance of the innocents to win. Those who are innocent can vote after him and in line with him to get a result. I intend to do this, if I am still alive. Who is taken out overnight may tell us much about who the mafia see as the biggest threat. We shall soon see.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Zapaterietxe, you're in the same time zone of this bus as I am, what are you doing up! Oh I see, you're a quick study and have finished with the archives and moved to report-writing. Now how am I supposed to get to sleep when there are delights like "Zapaterietxe's Report, Written by Me, Zapaterietxe (*)" to be read?
Oh, who, me, why was I up? Reading the archives, my dear angel, reading the archives. So far I've discovered that this Ios character was very quiet and serious at first, and has been getting ever more talkative and giddy as she gets to know everyone on the bus.
(*) Do you know how often, in order to address you correctly, I've had to repeat that classic spelling reminder "I before E except after C, and when pronounced AY as in neighbour and weigh, but back to the usual order when pronounced short-E as in Zapaterietxe"?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Z, yes, I spotted this:
quote:
Originally posted by
Ios, if you're still listening (yes, I know it's long), what are your thoughts on Choey (and, well, anyone else) tonight?
Yes, of course I'm listening, I love to read^H^H^H^Hlisten, but I have GOT to force myself to complete this Real Lyfe Sleep When There Is So Much Bus Tour Analysis To Be Completed And It Has Gotten Quite Fun, Including Reading The Archives challenges, plus I still have the other half of that Seven Hundred Mile challenge to complete, plus I want to think everything through carefully before writing anything.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
—The Grafinn announces her intention to vote for Reppik, unless, of course, the vote swings for Otto. Granted, at this point, it looks like it might be doing that, though its still pretty early. It's not a committal vote, it seems to just want someone, anyone, gone, and if Otto is innocent, it could be read as an attempt to avoid having to commit to a bluff that would debus a fellow Possessed, but, then again, she is pretty obvious in her anti-Reppik preferences.
Ze vun thing zat I vould add is zat at zis point Otto had said very little of substance. I vanted him to talk more (I vant everyvun to talk) und I thought he vas more likely to do zat so long as he vas in danger.
Otto did not in fact say much during ze vote either, but I preferred your case against Reppik to an argument from silence against Otto. Otto's feeble defence vas not enough of a reason to change my mind (though it vould have been a possible excuse, had I vanted vun). I think zat it vould have taken some significant self-incrimination by Otto to make me think zat voting for Reppik vas not ze best vote. Ze reason I vaited vas not because I thought I might not vote for him but because I vas trying (unsuccessfully) to get Otto to say more in his own defence zat ve could assess.
Posted by Starbug (# 15917) on
:
Suddenly, a gust of wind blew one of the inner doors open. At first there was silence but then Lucy's mob cap rolled across the floor like tumbleweed. Then the door slammed shut again and insanity was restored once more.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Perhaps a bit belated, but my thoughts: Zapa, very good point about Chooey. I hadn't thought about the Possessed doing that-killing her to make you guilty--but you're right, it would have been good. Of course, just to cover all the possibilities, it is possible that the Possessed are playing a bluff of some sort. Still, that seems too complex really, and Chooey certainly has been practicing hiding in plain sight.
Not sure that makes her more suspicious Otto though. I've been suspicious of him for a while now, and his moving out of the public eye, and posting less doesn't make it less suspicious.
While I'm looking at people who've been out of the public eye, Ja'ayem has been little noticed since he avoided voting for Reppik. Is it possible he's working in the shadows, reading, thinking, but not drawing attention? (Not a lot to go on re him, which is why he's in my third place.)
ETA: This list looks like I was cribbing of Zapa. I wasn't.
[ 23. March 2014, 10:43: Message edited by: Gwai ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
I am going to change the rules to my own game slightly. I'm going to list four people about whom I have reservations or questions. By listing them I do not imply that they must be Possessed. By listing them I do imply that I do not particularly trust them, or that I have nothing to go on. At the moment I believe one or both of the remaining Possessed will be among this number, but that means the other two or three are either clear or sympathetic. These are in no particular order.
1) I cannot read Otto to clear or convict him. All we're getting is repeated "I'm innocent" statements. I'll just keep repeating: "That's fine, honey, but anyone can say that. Even the Possessed." His voting patterns, associations, and arguments with Hophtrig have left him looking the worse for wear.
2. The Grafinn has been cast in a poor light by Joostein's arguments and innocence. This is in concert with the alarm bells I already had going off, even amid my attempts to clear her in good faith. This one is probably the most dangerous and devious as Possessed, and most honest and helpful as innocent. In other words, if my misgivings are right and she's Possessed, then we had better get her off this bus post haste. But if I'm just still reacting to the whole Joostein Incident and she's actually innocent, lynching her would be a major mistake. I know none of this is particularly helpful or insightful, but at the moment it's the best I have.
3) I don't know what to make of Codine. I thought earlier during the confusion that Codine made more sense as an innocent, but I find myself waffling again. Note that during that same confusion I was busy not trusting Zapaterietxe, even though I had cleared him early on day one. This just goes to show how out of reality I really was. Still, Codine hasn't done anything particularly noteworthy, has voted in all the right places, hasn't been trying the Daisy Gambit. I wish I knew more.
4. Daisy is just... not here. So I have zero input to base anything on.
And a bonus, that I just thought of:
5) Ja'ayem speaks as one who is utterly exhausted from, or in a hurry between, RealLyfe situations. The down side to speaking like that is that it looks suspicious to paranoid people. I'm having trouble following his lines of thought. I'm also remembering the fact that I cleared him early and then didn't really reassess it again, which I think is a mistake in a situation like this.
So there you have it. Of the ones left alive, I know I can trust Ios, and I think I can trust Hophtrig and Zapaterietxe. I think I can trust at least three of the ones I mentioned above, but I'm having a hard time figuring out which.
Now, I am only one man, and can only guarantee protection for myself. (I've helpfully hung this "Kick Me" sign on my back for having outed myself earlier.) Before night ends, I would like some input from Zapa and Ios. Am I thinking right? Am I missing anything?
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
What if Joostein was right about Codine being the sympathizer, but was wrong about the Grafinn and Zapaterietxe?
What if Zapaterietxe's line of thought about the Possessed watching from the sidelines as the innocents kill themselves is correct?
What I haven't answered (and unfortunately do not have time to answer) is who would Codine have been shielding?
What I did see was Codine talking through the confusion, telling us that he didn't trust Joostein and that the thought Joostein should be lynched.
What I would like to know is how likely that is. Of course, if theoretically we were to lynch Codine and find him to be the sympathetic, that would exonerate Joostein slightly. Both Eliabulon and the silents would be in hot water. But we would be down to crunch time, so we'd have to choose right the first time.
What I don't think we should do, however, is obsess too much over finding and lynching the sympathizer. If we get him/her/it, great! If not, the Possessed are actually more important.
What about that?
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
—Ja'ayem thinks through the three candidates, thinks there might be a Hophtrig/Otto alliance, and abandons his stated earlier intention to vote for Reppik. A vote for Otto; if Otto is innocent (an Ja'ayem guilty), the "I was going to vote Reppik" line could be an attempt to hedge and look confused, even when he knew Reppik was guilty and Otto wasn't; if J. is innocent, then I'm guessing he was probably actually uncertain (duh) and we don't learn much about Otto.
(Referring to 13 March, 2014 22:06)
Just for the record, Hophtrig and Otto had nominated each other.
I was suspecting a conflict in the same way you* and Reppik were at odds (not an alliance but a tying together of fates).
In both cases I was wondering if the first accuser (you/Hop) had either bad motivations or detective knowledge or were just guessing.
We now are pretty sure you were just guessing (but right) and H didn't have inside knowledge.
quote:
The nominator was...immediately off the mark now.
It could be that he...thinks he can get the kill. ...or maybe this is someone we should follow.
...
change my feelings about Hop, as all that about being quick off the mark applies to him too).
*(I know I ended up thinking Zappa was the clear opposer, but I think I might have been thinking of John at the time of writing and not noticed the change)
[Codefix. —A]
[ 23. March 2014, 13:59: Message edited by: Ariston ]
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto asks what can he possibly say? He came onto the bus with his feather boa constrictor, and has frankly understood that the whole journey is about a mixture of intuition and silliness. So he goes for hunches and fun. His initial hunch has not been pursued by him because nothing has confirmed it. He thought Ios and Hophtrig seemed likely innocent, but didn't know who else was. What can Otto possibly say?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I do have thoughts on all that has been said but it will take me a while to be able to post them because I want to put my thoughts carefully in order, and I have the rest of my Seven Hundred Mile challenge to complete.
I think I seem "frikking psychic" (thanks, Z
) because although I'm fond of logic, I get too lost in possible complexities to be able to trust that I can solve the whole thing just by logic. Plus the apparent logical convictions and predictions of my ancestors have been proved quite wrong on past tours (and on this tour: see my belief that Hophtrig was the Detective). So I have to make other kinds of observations about the bus tour, including observations related to why logic is hard on these tours.
For example, Z and E were stunned by the Innocence of J. I think it's because they were completely caught up in trying to solve the conundrum of J's actions by logic. But for me, at some point I realized that J represented some completely different way of thinking than how it would ever occur to me to think. At first, (after John revealed as the doctor), I thought Joostein was guilty: but if I were guilty it would never ever ever have occurred to me to argue the way Joostein was arguing. So that opened me to the idea that people could think totally differently from how I think, with their own internal logic. Once I'd thought that, and as I continued to give equal mental time to all possibilities of combinations of J and E's guilt, it occurred to me that since J clearly thought so differently from me, he might also be Innocent, just doing Innocent completely different from how I would do it -- the same as how I had previously concluded he was Guilty, but doing Guilty completely different from how I would do it.
So when J made his manifesto, instead of trying to analyze fully the logic of what he was saying, I wondered about: does it possibly make sense for a Guilty to be making this speech at this time, after all the shouting and voting is done? Not very much. Whereas it made a great deal of sense to me for an Innocent, with J's stated aims and beliefs, to make that speech then and for the reasons J stated. E found the speech to be the same warmed-over inanities (so E thought) that J had been spouting all along. For me, the speech pulled together and explained, without the previous confusion of "is this a bluff or not", what J's inner logic was for his actions.
I also had an insight when I read the speech. You may remember that I was puzzled why J was taking the burn-the-house-down approach to the desired result of "lynch J today, lynch E tomorrow." The same result might have been achieved by J simply going to his death that day at E's instigation, and expecting that we would obviously turn on E the next day. I certainly would have been lined up six ways from Sunday to lynch E if he had led the lynching of an innocent, based on the intensity of the arguments he and J had made before the false doctor claim.
You may also remember that I have spoken of cutting through the logic and finding a core value, or some other way to make a lynching decision or understand the situation. My insight on reading the speech cut through the logic and showed me the inner truth: the reason J did not play it the sensible way and go quietly to his death is because his core goal was actually not "lynch J today, lynch E tomorrow." J's core goal was "get the Guilty to have to speak at great length and produce all of their own rope to hang themselves." My Noble Martyr approach wouldn't have done that. Joostein's Burn The House Down approach was intended to do that.
Here's an example of different logics: Z said on The Crazy Day that the real doctor should not self-reveal after a false doctor claims. E said the opposite recently: the real doctor should self-reveal after a false doctor claims. Now: is one of these strategies obviously right stated by an Innocent, and the other is a deceitful fib stated by a Guilty? Are Z and E both Guilty and playing some complicated game mixing Truth and Confusion in equal mind-boggling parts? Or are Z and E both Innocent, both incredible grand- super- ultra- masters of reasoning -- but still have different ideas of the correct strategy? Provisionally right now, I think the last is the case. Wierd, huh?
By the way, Z, if you're going to use my favorite F word, you will probably need a supply of the [...usual and customary expletives...] to go with it
.
(Probably cross-posted with millions of people -- I started writing this an hour ago.)
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Dimthing Day 1, and a little before too (starts on Dimthing Archives page 2)
[This starts from when Daisy made the post below at or around the time of the bus accident, maybe a little before, and goes to just before John The Less makes his first appearance after the roles are announced. (I think that was the next post where I stopped.)
I wrote it last night; in particular before Zapaterietxe's recent long "inhale exhale" post. I haven't rethought it in light of Z's post. In it I'm just putting down impressions I have from the early part of the trip, sometimes that I had at the time (and still have, usually), and sometimes that I have now in light of subsequent events.
Forgive any typos; in particular on this keypad I tend to put I instead of O, and R instead of E.]
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
quote:
Originally posted by Daisy (Surfing Madness):
Daisy liked being an enigma, a floating substance, that people weren't even sure was there.
And that's a problem for the rest of us Innocents, if you are an Innocent, because we have no idea about you.
Your actions are in one view those of someone Possessed: hide out, so quiet that people forget about you, and never say anything. That way you can be sure none of your words will give you away as Possessed. Always float in late to the voting, so you're not involved in any way in the decision and don't draw any attention for swinging the vote one way or another.
On the other hand, you did say even before the sign ups for the Dimthing Bus Tour started that you didn't know how much time you would have to devote to it, and some of the minisculely few posts you have made as part of the Bus Tour reference being busy away from here. So maybe you're innocent, but completely unable to find time to post in a way that might help us Innocents be more convinced you're innocent.
Ios addresses the assembled crowd: Does anyone know in previous tales of Mafia Possession, does the suspiciously quiet forget-they're-even-there person ever turn out to be guilty? Or do the guilty always talk more, and the quietest one is always innocent, just naturally very very very very quiet (and/or very very very very preoccupied with Real Life)?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
quote:
Originally posted by Ja'ayem (Jay-Emm):
Ja'ayem mused on what he'd heard and seen.
[...musings on implications of roles...]
He also wondered how many were on the bus...but that was up to him to count.
--I.E Dafyd can you clarify how much detail will we get on a death with regard to the special roles.
This post was the first post after Dafyd described the roles. It is what convinced me that Ja'ayem is innocent. I would be surprised for a Possessed to be the first one out of the chute talking. Also for the content of that first post (if a Possessed were to sail in talking right away) to be analyzing the rules themselves. Better for a Possessed not to show so much interest in exactly how the rules work.
Also the Possessed don't need the information about the roles of dead players as much as the Innocents do. Sure, it would be nice to know if a Doctor or Detective is dead, and who was unreadable or not, so the Possessed can try reading the posthumous clues left by the Specials. But really, the murderous Possessed know who they are (with the exception of not knowing the Sympathizer, but although that would be nice it's not essential to their winning.). So the Possessed know who is attacking them and who is defending them. It's the Innocent who need as many clues as they can get. So Ja'ayem's final question is more naturally the question of an Innocent, not of a Possessed.
Recently (late on Dimthing Day 3, and during Dimthing Night 3), I've started to wonder if Ja'ayem is Possessed. This is because I can't understand any of his recent logic. But this could have the perfectly innocent explanation that I am utterly confused by Ja'ayem's pronouns and I don't know who he's talking to or about, and I haven't taken time to study his posts carefully to work it out. It also could be, as Joostein has so dramatically illustrated for us at about 78 standard deviations from the mean, that different innocent people have different thought processes and come to different conclusions in all good faith.
There's a post, I think on Dimthing Day 3, where I ask Ja'ayem about his pronouns. That's when my confusion started, and it has persisted with many (most? haven't counted) of Ja'ayem's posts since then.
[added as I post this: right now I have some provisional ideas about Ja'ayem, but I have a lot of doubt because neither conclusion -- Innocence or Guilt -- seems to really fit with any of the rest of what I've come to suspect about other passengers. So I need to read the Ja'ayem Corpus carefully to figure out if I can make sense of it. I haven't previously subjected Ja'ayem to the kind of careful scrutiny I've now given most of the rest of the passengers.]
Ja'ayem's D.Day 1 musing about "how many on the bus" gives me a reasonable explanation for why Eliabulon posted the list of passengers. This was almost the first thing Joostein way back on Day 1 suspected Eliabulon over. In Joostein's Manifesto, he explained that this (posting the passenger list) was the sort of completely useless activity a Possessed would take to pretend to be being helpful. That seemed like an odd thing for Joostein to suspect, and in fact when I said on DDay3 that reading the exchanges, Joostein's guilt leapt off the page, I was referring in fact to just the very first few Joostein/Eliabulon posts/exchanges, and this particular accusation, that posting the passenger list was useless, was in fact precisely what made Joostein seem guilty to me -- and you know me, I usually only very slowly commit to being able to make up my mind about anyone. I had in fact found the passenger list to be incredibly helpful as I tried to keep track of who was who on the bus rather than a jumbled kaleidoscope of passengers as it originally seemed to me. Notice how long it took me to refer by name to anyone but the Grafinn; that is how long it took me to sort everyone out. So to me, Joostein's objection to the passenger list seemed like exactly the sort of fake accusation a Possessed (Joostein) would have to manufacture, if they were determined to oppose an Innocent (Eliabulon) from the very beginning.
Well, once Joostein gave his Manifesto and was declared Innocent then I could see his reasoning for objecting to the passenger list posting, and that he meant it for real, not as a fake objection. So I was left wondering, was Joostein right about this? Or wrong?
And then I found this little DDay 1 musing by Ja'ayem, and I wonder if Eliabulon simply posted the passenger list to answer Ja'ayem's question. No need to wonder if this is a truly Innocent act or a Possessed trying to seem helpful by offering useless things: in fact, this was a useful thing offered because the need for it had been made known, by Ja'ayem.
(OMG, I've written so much already and I'm only halfway down frigging [...cue usual expletives...] page 3.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Speaking of how someone leads off after the roles have been announced, Eliabulon enters at what I take to be 7 a.m. in the local time of his Real Lyfe avatar Eliab, and spends the next hour reeling off 5 consecutive Eliab-like posts. If you're me, your first impression is that these are exactly what one expects of all the heirs of the ancestral house of Eliab. If you're Joostein, your first impression is apparently that there's something off-kilter about these posts: the husk of an Eliab scion, but in fact false, false, false, false, false.
Eliab's first post, after introducing Eliabulon, is, like Ja'ayem's, about the rules. Looking at the timing between E's first and second posts, it appears that he introduced the Grafinn, then went back and studied the preceding posts carefully, saw a detail that Dafyd hadn't mentioned explicitly when he (Dafyd) answered Ja'ayem, and asked about it. Unlike with Ja'ayem, whose rules-questioning post seemed far more to be what I would expect from an Innocent than from a Possessed, with Eliab's rules-questioning post I just think "that is so thoroughly Eliab" and come to no gut reaction about innocence or guilt either way.
quote:
Originally posted by Eliabulon (Eliab):
4. Ze detective und ze police inspector are forbidden to die.
The one thing that was odd to me was this: How can the detective and the inspector keep from dying? They have no control over that. It seemed like a strange and frivolous rule, although amusing as well in its wry truth.
It occurs to me that perhaps what Eliab(ulon) meant was: do not risk doing anything that could get you killed apart from pure bad luck of the random selection of the Possessed. In particular, do not breathe a word of your role, do not hint, do not try to leave clues, until we get close to the end and you have amassed enough information to reveal all at once and assure us of winning (or at least assure us nearly -- how certain did you want the detective and inspector to be before revealing, Eliabulon?)
Eliabulon on DDay 3 told me something about this rule, and I didn't understand what he was saying, partly because he was not answering the question I actually meant to be asking him. I'll look at that answer of E's again: maybe the previous paragraph is exactly what he was saying.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
After Eliabulon's marathon of posting, Lovely Kesley responded:
quote:
Originally posted by Lovely Lesley (Kelly Alves):
Jeez, who died and made this guy Phil Keoghan?
Mistakes in reasoning und logic, inconsistency of bearing, und behaviour zat looks suspicious are not permitted.
Was this another Innocent, besides Joostein, who found Eliabulon suspicious? Or was this simply an Innocent who gets hives at the authoritarian manners of the whole Clan Eliab? I know many do get such hives; I don't happen to, and this is a trait I have in Real Lyfe with people like Eliabulon (except of course when I'm being iconoclastic and kicking over the traces and the apple cart at the same time, to mix some metaphors). But in general some people seem to find the normal style of Clan Eliab to be annoying and/or signs of guilt; I don't. (Whether Grafinn Eliabulon is displaying that style in innocence, or simulating it in guilt, I can't say at this point.)
Anyway, I don't know if Lovely Lesley found Eliabulon suspicious at this point, or if she was just poking fun.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Daisy makes one of her rare appearances, which I mention because that verdammt (translation: damned) passenger list also makes an apoearance:
quote:
Originally posted by Daisy (Surfing Madness):
[....] She searched around for the passenger list and was pleased to find it, [....]
See, see, Joostein?! I'm not the only one who finds the darn list useful!
Daisy goes on to discover:
quote:
Originally posted by Daisy (Surfing Madness):
[....] she studied it hoping it would help. It didn't.
But I don't think that detracts from the idea that posting the list was an actually helpful act, not a fake helpful act.
I suppose Joostein isn't here to clarify, but maybe he meant that it was a helpful act, but one that carried absolutely no risk to the Possessed, so they would tend to do lots of those kinds of acts, and fewer of the risky self-revealing acts. In which case I guess I'd have to agree with Joostein at least on the issue of the list alone. (But then the list alone is not enough to make one -- well, me -- suspect either innocence or guilt.)
(note to self: "Oh God, does that mean I need to reread the J manifesto to check this?" God: "Oh yes, you do. Anyway it's better than playing Real Lyfe where you have just drawn the following exchange: 'Please please hurry up and finish in the bathroom, I need to pee.' 'I can't hurry; I'm throwing up.' You really don't want to have either line in that exchange." Self: "good point. Manifesto, here I come.")
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
[Added at time of posting: The next entrance is John The Less' (John's The Less?), but this is where I'm going to call it quits on this post. Along the way during the above, Hophtrig, Otto, and Choey made their appearances saying nothing of substance, which has been the problem for me to get a read on all three of them: they have constructed personas that allow them to talk a lot while analyzing relatively little.]
[This last bit should really be in its own post, since it's not directly related to the above, but I write it into this post without realizing two posts would be better, and now on this tiny handheld screen I can't manage to cut and paste it to move it:
Otto's comment about intuition and fun surprisingly echoes something I started thinking about today:
There are those of us who are obsessive, rereading and rerereading this trip's record, consulting the archives of other bouts of Mafia vs. The Innocents. And there are those of us who don't do that, but take the trio as it comes. (I count myself in the first group, although I probably won't read much of past trips until after this boos ride when we're all coomfoortably settled in Valhalla drinking hot groog. (Hot groog not to be confused with Hophtrig.)
Then, and these two groups might or might not be identical to the previous two groups, there are those of us who respond to an issue with ever more involved exercises in logic, analysis, consideration, reflection, etc. etc. etc. And then there are those of us for whom that's not a natural mode; indeed might even seem to be a nonsensical mode. For example, for some people, their response is "I'm unsure. I'll talk when I have some ideas." They're in the second group. And then there are people whose response is "I'm unsure. I'll talk when I have some ideas. Oh wait, here's an idea. Oh, and another. Oh, and another. [10 paragraphs later]. Well, I'm unsure, but that's what I'm thinking; maybe it will help." They're in the first group. (That quote is how I usually feel; there are many people in the first group who are a bit more decisive than me.)
So, although I'm an obsessed and verbal person, I want all the passengers on the bus to have fun. Part of the challenge is for us obsessed verbal passengers to read the passengers of other types correctly: when are they Innocents being themselves, and when are they Guilties hiding? Of course people in my group can be Guilty too, but it's more obvious how to try to read us for Innocence or Guilt.]
[ 23. March 2014, 17:50: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
The friends who Hophtrig sees on this bus are
- Ja'Ayem: Ja'Ayem seems to know Dimthing well. Ja'Ayem looks a little bit like Daisy. Ja'Ayem likes thinking things through, and analysing probabilities.
- Codine: Codine serves a master none of us left have met. Codine likes to pause and think before speaking. Codine speaks about the same amount as does Ja'Ayem, and is similarly analytical. The conclusions she draws are not that firm.
- Zapaterietxe: Zapaterietxe talks a lot. Zapaterietxe seems to have an understanding of what is happening on this bus greater than most.
- Graffin Ekaterina Eliabulon: Talks a reasonable amount, also. Has a lot to say. Joostein was definitely suspicious of her, but we do know that Joostein thinks differently from most of those on board. Hophtrig doesn't know whether this difference in thinking makes him discount Joostein's ideas, or look hard at them because they are a different perspective on things. Hophtrig thinks he will look hard at the Graffin.
- Daisy: Ethereal and sleepy. Hophtrig does not envy Daisy, having to wake up and catch the flow of conversations as long winded as those on this bus.
- Otto: Fabulous looking, but seems to let the Feather Boa Constrictor do a lot of his thinking for him, and the FBC isn't very talkative. Reppik Phtew made Otto look bad by the way he timed his last gambit. But poor Otto's fabulous, how could Hophtrig dislike him? Hophtrig will keep looking hard at his friend Otto
- Choey: Hophtrig's first real friend on this bus. Forthcoming with drinks and provisions. But she did think Hophtrig was very, very naughty.
- Hophtrig: Hophtrig didn't vote for Reppik Tew, Hophtrig was very quick to try and get Otto thrown off. Hophtrig makes a lot of noise, but hasn't got a thinking brain like Zapaterietxe, Ios and John. Hophtrig seems to ingratiate himself with his good friends the intellectuals. Hophtrig wonders if, what makes Hophtrig suspicious of others applies to Hophtrig, too. Hophtrig is tempted to look very hard at Hophtrig.
- Ios: Ios took Ios' time to come out of the woodwork, but seems to be a very thinky clever being, confused though she may feel.
- John: Our detective trusted John. John thinks a lot and talks a lot of clever talk. Hophtrig trusts John.
So, thinking about his friends, Hophtrig knows where he will look hardest. And Hophtrig has a piece of seat fluff with a spring attached for the next friend who nominates a naughty person, when the naughty person they nominated leaves the bus.
[ 23. March 2014, 17:55: Message edited by: Alban ]
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey thought hard. Who is MOST suspicious?
Interesting that even Hophtrig agrees he looks suspicious. Lady Celandine and Lesley both thought so too, when they were alive.
They had also been closely watching the Grafinn. Joostein was certain the Grafinn was operating a smokesceen. It may tell us a lot to look at who the recently disappeared had been suspecting. Lady Celandine, Lesley and Joostein had this as a common point: they had all distrusted the Grafinn.
But as for bullshitting, the dark angel was head and shoulders above everyone else on the bus. Miscounting, misrepresenting, and enormously long posts of convoluted claptrap, trying to sway the feeling against other passengers with very LOUD accusations means that Choey distrusts the motives of Zapaerietxe.
Again, if you are innocent and alive tomorrow, then fall into line behind John with your voting and support. He is the only one we can trust completely.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Are Z and E both Guilty and playing some complicated game mixing Truth and Confusion in equal mind-boggling parts? Or are Z and E both Innocent, both incredible grand- super- ultra- masters of reasoning -- but still have different ideas of the correct strategy?
Ios, you can be fairly sure zat Zapaterietxe is innocent.
I think you can reach ze same conclusion about me, but ze reason you can be even more sure of Zapaterietxe is that he is ze uncontradicted unreadable.
Ze innocent unreadable passenger has vun important special power. He knows zat if anyvun else claims to be unreadable (und innocent) zey must be lying. If Zapaterietxe is lying, ze real unreadable person MUST say so, und ve find vun of ze Possessed. No vun has done zis. Zerefore Zapaterietxe is to be trusted.
quote:
Does anyone know in previous tales of Mafia Possession, does the suspiciously quiet forget-they're-even-there person ever turn out to be guilty?
Very rarely, I think. Usually qviet people are innocent.
Ze paradox, of course, is zat zis makes silence a very good strategy for ze guilty, if ve allow zem to adopt it. Und ze innocents can only hope to vin if people talk. So discouraging silence is a good strategy, but lynching somevun for being silent is usually a bad move. But if ve vere not prepared to do it, ze guilty vould never speak und alvays vin.
quote:
Unlike with Ja'ayem, whose rules-questioning post seemed far more to be what I would expect from an Innocent than from a Possessed, with Eliab's rules-questioning post I just think "that is so thoroughly Eliab" and come to no gut reaction about innocence or guilt either way.
Ven I read your comment on Ja'ayem, my first thought vas - “Vell zen, she should say zat I am innocent for ze same reason”. Zen I read zat, und thought “Actually, zat is fair”.
quote:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliabulon (Eliab):
4. Ze detective und ze police inspector are forbidden to die.
The one thing that was odd to me was this: How can the detective and the inspector keep from dying? They have no control over that. It seemed like a strange and frivolous rule, although amusing as well in its wry truth.
It occurs to me that perhaps what Eliab(ulon) meant was: do not risk doing anything that could get you killed apart from pure bad luck of the random selection of the Possessed. In particular, do not breathe a word of your role, do not hint, do not try to leave clues, until we get close to the end and you have amassed enough information to reveal all at once and assure us of winning (or at least assure us nearly -- how certain did you want the detective and inspector to be before revealing, Eliabulon?)
Zis is, of course, now moot, but ze investigators had two options for survival. Vun is to be inconspicuous, und ze ozer is to declare zemselves und ask outright for protection. Zey should also avoid being lynched, vich may mean declaring zemselves if zis is likely.
As a general rule, as soon as our specialist start declaring, it is a straight race: zey search for ze killers, vile ze killers remove zeir protection und zen kill zem. I vould vant investigators to declare ven zere is a good chance of zat race being vun. Our position vas complicated: neither investigator could know ze total amount of information ve vere collecting, und none of ze information vas even reliable until ve knew vich investigator vas vich. So judging ven to declare vould not have been easy. Zere are all sorts of factors – vether ze innocent unreadable vas found (or died), vether ze doctor vas alive, casualties amongst ze possessed, role claims made (voluntarily or forced to avoid lynching), und, of course, investigation results. But ze closest I gat get to a general rule is zat I vould have vanted zem to at least consider declaring after two nights, if both vere alive, because zat is ze earliest zat ve could have had all ze information to vin. Und if not (ve vould have had to be lucky) if both investigators und doctor had been still alive, zat vould guarantee at least two further investigations before zey could both be silenced by ze killers, und zat could vell have been enough.
[ 23. March 2014, 19:54: Message edited by: Eliab ]
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
Choey distrusts the motives of Zapaerietxe.
Who is almost certainly innocent.
Ve cannot afford mistakes like zis! If ze unreadable person is not Zapaeterietxe, zey MUST say so. Knowing zat his claim is false vould now be ze only special ability 'unreadable' confers. Zere vould be no reason for zem not to speak, und it vould be ze best service zey could do us.
If no vun speaks, ve have to assume he is telling ze truth.
(Ze killers vill likely not risk a false claim, but if zey do, ve lynch ze least convincing vith a better zan even chance of killing an enemy in vun day, und a certainty in two. Good odds for us).
quote:
Again, if you are innocent and alive tomorrow, then fall into line behind John with your voting and support. He is the only one we can trust completely.
Ve know zat John's reasoning is honest und zat he is vorking for a vin by ze innocents. Ve do not know zat his conclusions are correct. Zis is important.
Ve should certainly give John's opinions much veight, but should be free to discuss (und challenge) his thinking because ve need to get zis right. Vat ve cannot do is read a guilty motive into his thinking, und zat is good because ve can trust zat he means vat he says.
Also, Zapaterietxe is also innocent, und ve should trust him to ze same extent. He might, on any particular point, in fact be wrong, but he is not trying to mislead.
[ 23. March 2014, 20:11: Message edited by: Eliab ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I haven't seen Dafyd's usual message "12 hours to complete night actions." I wonder if that means everyone has already taken their night action.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
How vould I expect ze guilty to act?
I think zere are five actions vich likely correlate positively vith Possession. I vill consider zese (und zere contrary actions) in zis vay:
1. A (veak) correlation between guilt und voting not to lynch on ze first day.
Zis vas simply ze least conspicuous option for most people. Of course, vith two investigators, zere vas also a respectable argument for doing it. So zis is a very uncertain indicator of guilt. I vould certainly not rely on zis alone.
Of ze remaining passengers not proven innocent, Ja'ayem, Hophtrig und Codine did vote not to lynch anyvun.
(Otto, Eliabulon und Ios all voted to lynch. Daisy did not vote)
2. Defending Reppik.
Ve know now zat ze people who accused und nominated Reppik are innocent, so zis vas not (at least at ze start) a sacrifice by ze killers. I vould expect vun of ze guilty at least to try to steer suspeicion avay from Reppik.
I summarise all ze comments about Reppik from ze start until his guilt vas revealed – but ingnoring all comment by zose now dead or ozervise proven innocent:
On ze first day -
Ja'ayem vas ze first to mention Reppik as possible suspect: but zis vas a non-serious comment based on Reppik correcting Ja'ayem's numbers. In fact, it vas not even Reppik who had done zis, but Zapaterietxe. Reppic vas not placed in Ja'ayem's list of suspects.
I placed Reppik reasonably high in my first analysis. After naming ze silent first (to encourage speech), Reppik vas in ze next three. Ven voting, I considered ze reasons for suspecting Reppik seriously, und did not dispute zem, but found my similar reasons for suspecting Joostein stronger.
Hophtrig said to Reppik very early “we know you're a good friend”. Of course, Hophtrig said much ze same to everyvun. More significantly, Hophtrig later listed Reppik as an analytical und active passenger, und (vile suggesting zat Hophtrig himself might be evicted) pointed suspicion at ze class of qvieter passenger.
Choey said expressly zat she “didn't think it was Reppik”.
Ja'ayem considered ze accusation but vas non-commital und unsure about it.
On ze second day -
I gave positive reasons to suspect both Reppik und Joostein (und I considered nominating Joostein - in fact I missed ze chance to do zis). I vaited to vote for him (having said I vas likely to do so) in ze hope zat Otto vould talk more if he vas in danger of ejection from ze bus. Zis hope failed, und I voted for Reppik as most suspicious.
Ja'ayem asked “what's the specific triggers leading up to Reppik being nominated? I would like to see this before I decide upon my vote.” Zis vas done. He did appear to examine zis, vas rather non-commital, und voted for Otto.
Ios at first said zat she “might be inclined to give Reppik a pass”, but later zat ze accusations sounded. She also considered reasons for doubting Reppik's accusers, but very shortly aftervards (too soon for her doubts to have swayed ozers' opinions) vent on to vote for Reppik.
Codine said she vas suspicious enough to vote for Reppik und vanted to hear his defence. She vas not convinced by it, und voted for him, but too late to affect ze outcome.
3. Supporting Zapaterietxe's suspicion of Lesley.
Ze killers must have thought zat Zapaterietxe vas innocent (not ze sympathiser) ven he pushed so hard to lynch Reppik. Und zey knew he vas right, but wrong to think zat Reppik vas colluding vith Lesley. Zey must have thought zat even if Reppik vas lost, zay could encourage a false accusation against Lesley on ze following day.
Tragically, Lesley died vith Reppik, so it may be zat ze killers never acted on zis. But it is possible zat zey vere preparing to do so. Again, though, zere vas clearly an argument for Lesley's guilt, so an innocent person could have done zis.
My summary of comments on Lesley (discounting 'known' contributors as before):
I consistently disagreed vith Zapaterietxe about Lesley, vile agreeing vith him about Reppik.
Ios said zat ze accusations against Lesley “sound convincing”. Later she said zat “If Reppik is guilty, then I would observe that Lovely Lesley has indeed undergone a massive personality change”. But she still concludes “Lovely Lesley may be innocent”.
4. Expressing doubt about John after he said zat he vas ze doctor:
A known innocent is a dangerous liability to ze killers. It vould have suited ze killers if John vas not believed.
Ios, Codine und I all analysed ze claims, und ze detective's evidence, und said zat ve believed John, und did zis before Joostein admitted zat his claim vas false.
5. Expressing doubt about Zapaterietxe after he said zat he vas unreadable:
For ze same reasons as above.
Choey is ze only vun to do zis.
I have been pointing out ze likely implication of ze claim is zat Zapaterietxe is innocent.
Ze conclusion:
It is not surprising zat I have acted in ze vay I think innocent people should act – my actions vere in each case opposed to (vat I think) ze guilty vould have vanted to do. Ios (und to a less extent, Codine) also acted in ze vay I vould take to be most consistent vith innocence. But several people did act in ze vays I think inherently suspicious to a greater or lesser degree:
Hophtrig, Choey und Ja'ayem might plausibly be thought to have tried to shift focus from Reppik.
Ios might have been setting up to follow Reppik's eviction vith zat of Lesley (although, if she actually though Lesley guilty, zis is a veak indication).
Choey cast doubt on Zapaterietxe, after his role claim.
Neither Otto und Daisy did anything much vich assists my analysis. At zis stage, silence is vorrying, und vill soon be unaffordable. Codine vas a little more active, und generally avoided vat I think is supicious behaviour.
Re-reading ze transcripts does not fundamentally change, und, on balance, strengthens my confidence in, my earlier analysis.
[ 23. March 2014, 22:05: Message edited by: Eliab ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by the Grafinn Ekaterina Eliabulon:
Ze role claim moved me from suspicion to certainty. Innocent people do not do zat. I am still baffled by ze qvestions I asked yesterday. Vat vould Joostein have done if ze real doctor had been me, or some ozer person he could have said vas lying? Ze only answer zat makes sense is he vould have accused zem, because if not, vy make ze claim at all? But zat vould be insane for an innocent person. I still do not understand his thinking.
No matter who claimed to be the doctor, Joostein would have folded it into his narrative that you are Guilty. The real goal was not so much to find logic to prove you guilty in the face of Tom, Dick, or Harriette (hypothetical example names) claiming to be the doctor. The real goal was to get you, Eliabulon, talking a lot so that you would produce enough words that a fallacy could be found in them, that would then convince the rest of us of your guilt. And if we weren't moving towards your guilt for that day's lynch, to then bring out the "lynch me first, and my innocence will prove Eliabulon's guilt" gambit that Joostein in fact ended up having to play. He may have expected to have to play that gambit all along.
He commented that John being the doctor was unlucky (for his goal), and I haven't reread to decide if he really meant that or if it was part of the "wreak havoc" front he was putting up. But if he really meant it, he probably had ideas of what he would say for any of the other possibilities of claims to be the doctor. But those ideas probably wouldn't seem in any way logical to you. Again, it didn't really matter, as long as you could be gotten to talk long enough to talk yourself into a noose.
I wonder how long Clan JFH has been thinking about how the heck a representative of the clan could bring down a guilty member of the famously dangerous Clan Eliab.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by John The Less:
In the case of Celandine, it was a very subtle tell that I completely missed until after the fact. Although I did see and wonder about the post itself, it never occurred to me that it might be a detective post.
Not only that, when we did find out that Celandine was the detective, if I read the transcript correctly you were the first to refer us to the paragraphs where we believe Celandine made this identification. But you suggested that it was clearing other people. It was someone else who pointed out that the most obvious interpretation was that it cleared you.
I don't offer this as evidence for anything, just an ironic event that perhaps just points to how difficult it is to recognize ourselves. Or perhaps we totally misread Celandine, and you're actually Guilty - but that way madness lies, because to believe both that we misread Celandine so badly, _and_ that the real doctor is _still_, after all that has happened, lurking out there without declaring -- well, that is beyond belief. Of course we've all just found out what happens if we consider scenarios to be beyond belief. But I have only a certain amount of time to do all this analysis, so I am pruning my decision tree of any scenario that would require the impossible to happen not just once but three times in a row.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Eliabulon, sometime after this Dimthing Night started, and after Zapaterietxe declared as Innocent Unreadable, while reviewing things I have come to mostly think you are Innocent. But one thing in particular undermines my confidence in this, which is that all the Innocent members of Clan Eliab which Clan A.Road has met, always say on the first day, to explain why they are saying everything in such detail, is so that all that they can contribute is available for us should said member of Clan Eliab be killed on the first night. You, Ekaterina, did not say this. That is, you did not indicate any worry that you would be killed on the first night.
What I wonder: is that because you are Possessed, and knew you didn't have to worry about nocturnal death, and so forgot to add that detail to an Innocent pose?
This is what I was trying to ask you before, when you answered instead about regretting not putting enough detail in your Day One explanation of best strategy for the detective and inspector. But "why didn't you say more" wasn't my question. And that's another slightly odd thing: when has a member of Clan Eliab ever not explained things in enough detail?
I hesitate to say these things, because considering the scenarios where you are guilty is a distant branch on my decision tree in sorting out possibilities. There are other things that I consider more likely. So I worry it will just make other people suspect you for no good reason.
But you did ask for all doubts to be aired, so there's mine.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
E (or would you prefer GEE?), something that sways me to believing you innocent, is that every time I notice a difference between you and Zapaterietxe on some small specific point that seems to me to have a clear answer, I agree with you, not Zapaterietxe. And I believe that Z is innocent unreadable as claimed. So all the more should you be innocent, if you're giving us even better ideas than Z's ideas.
I have been thinking this all day, and was spurred to post as I was rereading what you said about Lovely Lesley: Z thought she was guilty, you did not. (At the time I think I agreed with Z, but now we all know that you were right.)
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I forgot to include in the post above about Celandine and John: when I read Celandine's posts after her death, and weighing the competing ideas that she had investigated John vs. that she had investigated Eliabulon, it seemed crystal clear to me that she investigated John. So right now I'm suspicious (in the abstract) of anyone who thought she investigated Eliabulon, and more suspicious the longer that person maintained that mistaken belief.
Now in application I need to look at who said they believed what on this topic (at the moment I have no memory of who did or didn't), to fold this knowledge in with my other knowledge of bus passengers. By itself the suspicion isn't determinative; it will depend how it combines with other information.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Choey:
But as for bullshitting, the dark angel was head and shoulders above everyone else on the bus. Miscounting, misrepresenting, and enormously long posts of convoluted claptrap, trying to sway the feeling against other passengers with very LOUD accusations means that Choey distrusts the motives of Zapaerietxe.
Yes, all those accusations could be potentially laid at Z's door. But how do you account for Z's unchallenged claim that he is Innocent Unreadable?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
A few various points collected in to one grab-bag post:
I missed in my summary of "day one list your three suspicions" that although Reppik Tew hemmed and hawed, he actually did name three for suspicion: Zapaterietxe, Crimson and Hophtrig. We now know Crimson is Innocent, and believe Zapaterietxe is Innocent (barring any more completely bizarre bizarritudes happening on this bus). Is this declaration of suspicion by Reppik, evidence that Hophtrig is Innocent?
Drat, another thing I forgot to say in previous post about Celandine and John: I think the reason Celandine investigated John on Night One is because Zapaterietxe during Day One suggested that he (Z) would like to see John investigated.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
Choey: you keep telling us to look at actions, not words. What actions do you mean? And why is talking not an action?
My final analysis of today: Joostein and I were both absolutely convinced of the other's guilt. He started off, from the beginning, with the conviction that the Grafinn was guilty. While this conviction and its consequences was exactly what I was warning about by saying that behavior is par for the course, don't suspect her until she deviates from it, he, as someone always does when Pavian nobles are involved, seems to have very quickly become convinced that she was guilty—unshakably convinced—and began to construct a narrative around that. Me, not suspecting the Grafinn, thought anyone constructing such a narrative might/must be up to no good. The two of us were interpreting the same evidence through two completely different filters, two entirely different sets of assumptions—and we both thought we'd caught ourselves a baddie, and pursued one another with near-demonic fury. Both of us were sure nabbing the other one would undo the conspiracy, and save all of us. Because we were working with two different sets of assumptions—him that the Grafinn had to be guilty, and all else should be constructed around that, me that she didn't seem to be—we started taking exactly the actions that made us look guilty to the other. And, of course, both of us were accusing an innocent, convinced we'd found one of the Possessed, and started building cases supporting our conviction.
Neither one of us was guilty, of course. That may have been why things were so confusing; something just didn't add up between our visions of reality, each of us saw that in the other, based on our base assumptions, and, in the end, Joostein got booted. I still can't believe I missed that.
But now: we have the records. We can slowly start to piece together what we learned from earlier today, try to make sense of the chaos. There has to be something there we can learn from. It's still a little too raw for me, a bit too fresh in my mind—I'd like to have more perspective and distance before working through it, to be quite frank—but, perhaps in the morning. Well, if there is a morning. I hope there is, but…hope.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey inhaled the aroma of butterscotch coffee appreciatively, and decided to do some projections. If both the Grafinn and Zapatarietxe are innocent, the mafia would want to kill one of them overnight and pin the blame on the other.
If only one of them is innocent, then the guilty one would wish to kill that one, and lay the blame at the feet of another innocent passenger. Someone they are lining up in their crosshairs right now. Choey shivered, and wondered if it was a target she could feel being painted on her back.
If both the Grafinn and Zapatarietxe are guilty then we are probably all doomed. It would be a formidable pairing.
It is true that following John is no guarantee we will get it right. But it would be better to follow the thoughtful lead of a known innocent than someone still in question. If John decides to trust the loud and obnoxious Zapatarietxe, I will do so too, even if I don't like it. The numbers of the innocent will have dwindled by one more soon enough, barring a miracle. We cannot afford any more innocent passengers to go leaping out of the airlock after Lesley and Joostein.
Coffee anyone?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
My tentative assessments based on events and posts as I recall them. This will direct what I focus on as I reread the transcripts.
Confirmed Innocent by Dafyd
Crimson (la vie en rouge) - INNOCENT, INSPECTOR, DEAD
Lesley (Kelly Alves) - INNOCENT, DEAD
Her Eminence, the Lady Celandine Diamante De Cooperhoop / Lucy (Starbug) - INNOCENT, DETECTIVE, DEAD
Joostein Käse (JFH) - INNOCENT. DEAD
Believed Innocent by Role Claim
John (Barefoot Friar) - INNOCENT, DOCTOR
Zapaterietxe (Ariston) - INNOCENT, UNREADABLE
I Tend to believe in their Innocence, but I could be wrong
Ios (Autenrieth Road) - INNOCENT. Of course, I know I'm innocent, but I'm trying to make a template that might be useful to others.
Grafinn Ekatarina Eliabulon (Eliab)
(There's a big gap here: I'm a lot more confident of those above than those below. For Ja'ayem and Hophtrig in particular, I keep being forced to reconsider them as possibly Guilty and in the next group below: see note after the next group.)
Ja'ayem (Jay-Emm) - based on his first post, as explained in my long post looking at the beginning of Day One.
Hophtrig (Alban) - based on Reppik Tew naming him as one of Reppik's three suspicions on Day One.
I tend to suspect them of Guilt, but I could be wrong, plus at least one of them must be Innocent
Cho Bacca Loriette (Banner Lady)
Otto von Biggleswarpski (no prophet)
Codine (Gwai)
Daisy (Surfing Madness)
I should say something about this group. They are all suspicious for various reasons. And I can easily make a case for two Guilty in this group. But I find it very difficult so far to make a case for three Guilty in this group. (Other Beings on this Bus, please help me out here with trying the various permutations of roles, and seeing what makes sense. I may well have just not gotten creative enough.). So then I am forced to reconsider people from the group above, to make the third Guilty (or even more Guilty from the group above, and fewer Guilty from this group).
My suspicions are partly because I don't have very much direct information about this group, partly because of others' suspicions of them, partly because they all either say a lot with little analysis, or say very little. One of my goals in reviewing the transcripts will be to pay attention to this group: what they do, who they believe, who they suspect, who believes or suspects them.
Confirmed Guilfy by Dafyd
Reppik Tew (Wet Kipper) - POSSESSED, UNREADABLE, DEAD
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
quote:
Originally posted by Choey:
But as for bullshitting, the dark angel was head and shoulders above everyone else on the bus. Miscounting, misrepresenting, and enormously long posts of convoluted claptrap, trying to sway the feeling against other passengers with very LOUD accusations means that Choey distrusts the motives of Zapaerietxe.
Yes, all those accusations could be potentially laid at Z's door. But how do you account for Z's unchallenged claim that he is Innocent Unreadable?
Choey, please answer this.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Things I'll be looking out for as I reread:
* Who thought what about Lovely Lesley, and when? (I know Eliabulon has excerpted it for us; it will help me to also read it in situ and in context.)
* Who did people think Lady Celandine had investigated, and when did they think it?
* What analysis have any of the not-much-analysis group brought us? (Hophtrig, Choey, Otto, Codine, Daisy)
* Do Ja'ayem's analyses make any sense?
* Is there any reason to suspect Codine of being the Sympathizer apart from Joostein's suspicion that she was the Sympathizer to a Possessed Eliabulon?
After rereading with those questions in mind, I'll look again at the Day One Three Suspicions list and at the Nominations And Voting list and see if any patterns emerge.
I can't make my mind up at all about Choey right now. Sometimes she says sensible-sounding things and sometimes she says things that seem deeply irrational.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Cho Bacca Loriette:
If both the Grafinn and Zapatarietxe are guilty then we are probably all doomed. It would be a formidable pairing.
This is the only part of your most recent post that I agree with. But why should we think Zapaterietxe is guilty, given the logic surrounding Zapaterietxe's unchallenged claim of a Special role?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
That was that. She had spent 8 hours thinking as she concluded the Seven Hundred Mile challenge (which had actually turned out to be a mere Six Hundred Ninety Five Mile challenge). She had turned everything over in her mind that she knew so far, listened to the other passengers who couldn't sleep tonight, carried out a virtual filibuster in the aisle of the bus. She had grown unexpectedly fond of many of the passengers. Even ones who might be Possessed still had endearingly redeeming qualities, no matter what Evil had taken over their minds and bodies.
Now to sleep. She knelt down in the Hophtrig Hidey Hole, cleaned of all traces of shaving cream and turkey feathers and fitted out with neat new beds of seatback wadding. She wondered if the invisible Daisy had carried out this much-needed housekeeping. She gently moved Hophtrig's spring so he didn't risk poking himself in the cheek with it. She checked Otto's bandage -- all looked neat and clean; Hophtrig had done a good job of nursing. She patted the FBC, which was awake and looking at her quizzically. She wasn't sure if patting was quite what one did for FBCs, but it seemed to smile and wink at her, so she took that as a good sign.
She closed her eyes, expecting that she would get no more than three hours of sleep before either feeling a cold Possessed tentacle on her neck (no matter what appendages the Possessed have, they always feel like tentacles when used to murder), or being awoken to the screams as another one of the passengers was discovered dead.
If she was still alive when the sun rose (hopefully, still in the east), she would settle down to her new research task as quickly as possible. Perhaps she could find something that would help the passengers out of their predicament before too many more Dimthing Days and Nights had passed.
[No Beings were harmed in the making of this post. No opinions of guilt or innocence are intended by Ios for posthumous consideration as she makes this bedtime post. Offer only valid for this post; all other posts are to be posthumously mined as deeply as possible.]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ios was dreaming about her great great great great great great aunt Rose Autenrieth, who had vanished in the desert.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
quote:
Originally posted by Choey:
But as for bullshitting, the dark angel was head and shoulders above everyone else on the bus. Miscounting, misrepresenting, and enormously long posts of convoluted claptrap, trying to sway the feeling against other passengers with very LOUD accusations means that Choey distrusts the motives of Zapaerietxe.
Yes, all those accusations could be potentially laid at Z's door. But how do you account for Z's unchallenged claim that he is Innocent Unreadable?
Choey, please answer this.
Yes, yes, there is that. No-one else has come forward to dispute this so far, and while I find the dark angel's filibustering extremely irritating, I have to concede he is most likely therefore innocent. And unreadable. Like his name and the length of his posts. An apt appointment by Dafyd.
This still leaves the Grafinn and Hophtrig on my alert list. I would add Codine as the third. Ios, Otto, Ja'ayem and Daisy I am less doubtful about, though one of them could be an enemy.
And after coffee, cake would be nice. Chocolate mudslide perhaps?
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
Dimthing Tours regretfully announce that Daisy (Surfing Madness) has been murdered in the night by the Possessed. We apologise for any inconvenience. She was innocent.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig is puzzled by losing his friend Daisy. Daisy was the least easy of those aboard the bus to know anything about, as she spent most of the time hibernating and dreaming of realyfe. Although her friends on board the bus thought Daisy was probably not a naughty person, Hophtrig would have thought the naughty people could have pretended she was naughty and saying nothing.
Hophtrig will miss Daisy, though Hophtrig only noticed Daisy floating by occasionally, Hophtrig's friend Daisy's presence in the ether will be missed.
They couldn't kill John, so they chose not to kill any of the people we were most suspicious of, three because they are naughty and the rest because that keeps us all confused - no matter how clever those friends' talking may be.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
Zat tells us very little. Possibly zat vas ze point.
It might be zat ze killers like ze vay our discussion is going, und picked a victim zat vould not disturb it.
It might be zat zey fear ve vay discussion is going, but think zat murdering somevun who is right vould strengthen ze case zey are making.
It might be zat zey choose an inactive person to reduce ze risk of ze doctor foiling ze crime.
It might be zat zey are trying to avoid killing zeir sympathiser zis close to ze tipping point, und thought Daisy least likely to be zeir ally.
I do not think zis changes my mind, but avait everyvun else’s reactions.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
But one thing in particular undermines my confidence in this, which is that all the Innocent members of Clan Eliab which Clan A.Road has met, always say on the first day, to explain why they are saying everything in such detail, is so that all that they can contribute is available for us should said member of Clan Eliab be killed on the first night. You, Ekaterina, did not say this. That is, you did not indicate any worry that you would be killed on the first night.
In ze history of our House, zere vas vun Eliabulon (Eddie Eli), who, vith his faithful Avianoid companion (Eusebius ze Parrot), solved a murder case on Padella’s Vorld vith vat ze records say vas supernatural speed.
For some time after zat, ve feared our enemies vould target us as a priority to all ozers. Und so ve vere careful to make provision for our deaths in action, so zat our companions vould know our thinking.
Since zen, however, although ze Eliabulons remain generally perceptive und rational, ze stupendous success of zat incident has yet to be repeated. Und zerefore, in ze more recent records, you vill find ve do not expect so clearly to be murdered on principle by ze guilty.
Also, in zis case, of course, at ze outset ve had fifteen passengers. Three vere killers (und so vould not be murdered), und vun a sympathiser, who ze rest of us hoped vould be. Four of us vere specialist who vould help us to vin, possibly after two nights. Ze remaining seven (plus ze sympathiser) form a pool of eight from whom, if ve vere rational, ve vould hope zat ze Possessed vould select zeir victims. Und I, being neither killer, nor sympathiser, nor detective, nor inspector, nor doctor, nor unreadable, vas (und am) in zis group. So vile I vould very much prefer not to be murdered, it vould have been selfish, und unbefitting a Pavian Landsgraf, for me to say anything zat suggested a particular need of protection. Ze killers targeting me (or any ozer plain innocent), rather zan ze inspector (or ozer specialist) vould have been better for us as a team. Saying zat I vas a likely first night target could have looked like an appeal for ze doctor to guard me: und in truth, ze doctor’s attention vas needed more elsevere.
You asked before also vy I did not announce a plan for victory in ze usual vay after Crimson zas murdered. Ze answer to zat is simpler – I vas busy vith ozer business, und did not even make a final decision to nominate, or not, zat morning. Und zen vas overtaken vith ze serious matters of ejecting Reppik und trying to get Otto to say something meaningful.
After zat, my plan vas set out. Ve have a group of three (Choey, Ja’ayem und Hophtrig) vich is overvelming likely to contain ze sympathiser, und qvite likely to have a killer as vell. Vun enemy death puts us out of immediate danger of losing after two mistakes, two likely means victory. If ve play ze odds, zis is vere ve focus.
quote:
This is what I was trying to ask you before, when you answered instead about regretting not putting enough detail in your Day One explanation of best strategy for the detective and inspector. But "why didn't you say more" wasn't my question. And that's another slightly odd thing: when has a member of Clan Eliab ever not explained things in enough detail?
Zat is a fair point, but ze truth is zat ven I had ze time to address your qvestion, ve vere locked into ze controversy vith conflicting role claims, und, I thought, had caught vun of ze guilty in a lie. Vile your qvestion deserved an answer, it vas not so important as ze ozer matters ve vere discussing. I vould have seemed odd (und possibly been used as a ground of suspicion against me) at zat point to revive a tangent to ze main line of discussion zat no vun else vas pursuing.
I asked for doubts to be aired last night, precisely so zat any issues zat got lost in yesterday’s confusion, und might influence a vote, could be addressed.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey sighed. So we have lost another innocent female. That makes four. Plus Joostein.
There are 7 suspects, if we are generally agreed on the innocence of John and Zippitpleeze. The Grafinn asks for our reaction to Daisy's murder. I too believe that the mafia must be trying not to kill the sympathizer, and cannot yet work out who that might be. They could win very quickly now if we lynch the wrong person.
So while it is vital that John and the avenging angel agree on a target, and that the innocent vote as a block, it is possible, as the Grafinn pointed out, that they may choose wrongly. But I will vote they way they do anyway. As an innocent it is the only option I have to show that I am not working to oppose them. I still think reviewing the suspicions of the murdered is worthwhile. But I am obviously in a minority in this.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
That have given us a great gift, lads, if we are able to recognize it.
I have the RealLyfe challenge "Sightseeing in New Orleans" to do, which includes beignets at Cafe Dumond (I'm sure I'm butchering the spelling).
I'll consider and post in a bit. It is an incredible stroke of luck, though, for everyone but Daisy and the Possessed.
[ 24. March 2014, 12:25: Message edited by: Barefoot Friar ]
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
I missed in my summary of "day one list your three suspicions" that although Reppik Tew hemmed and hawed, he actually did name three for suspicion: Zapaterietxe, Crimson and Hophtrig. We now know Crimson is Innocent, and believe Zapaterietxe is Innocent (barring any more completely bizarre bizarritudes happening on this bus). Is this declaration of suspicion by Reppik, evidence that Hophtrig is Innocent?
If it ver anyvun but Hophtrig, I vould think ze opposite. Ze guilty know zat zey may be found out, by investigation, or by death, und so vill likely have vanted to mislead. Two innocents und vun guilty in a list of three is vat ve might expect.
BUT … Hophtrig vas a very plausible first day nomination. Before ve have real evidence, evicting somevun zat ve simply do not like, or find irritating, is as good a vay to pick a random guess as any, und plainly some people did think of ejecting Hophtrig for no better reason zan annoyance. In contrast, zere vas next to no chance of a first day nomination of ze extremely useful Zapaterietxe or Crimson succeeding vithout some real indicator of guilt. So I vould be inclined to agree vith you, but only because it is Hophtrig. Reppik might have named a conspirator on his list of suspicion, to mislead us in future, but he is unlikely to have listed somevun ve might actually decide to kill zat very day. So I think I vill take zis as some evidence zat Hophtrig is not vun of ze killers.
Of course it is not evidence vun vay or anozer about vether he is ze sympathiser. Reppik did not know who ze sympathiser vas at ze start. Ve do not know vether any secret clue has been successfully passed from sympathiser to killer since zen, but I have seen no evidence to suggest zat it has. Ze killers may vell still not know or have guessed who zeir ally is. It vill be easier for zem to guess zan us, of course, because ze sympathiser has knowledge to hint at vich ve do not know, but again, ze sympathiser vill likely be trying to mislead us as much or more zan zey seek to make zemselves known. As I understand it, even if ze killers guess correctly, zey still cannot communicate telepathically vith ze sympathiser, so ze benefits of making contact are mostly zat ze killers vill not murder zeir colleague by mistake (vich, I think, vould make even zis notoriously humourless Pavian laugh out loud if zey did).
[ 24. March 2014, 12:51: Message edited by: Eliab ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
[cross-posted with John and Eliabulon]
quote:
Originally posted by Cho Bacca Loriette:
Yes, yes, there is that.
That, to me, is a remarkably cavalier way of responding. And now you are retreating from opposing Zapaterietxe to seeming to accept his innocence:
quote:
Originally posted by Cho Bacca Loriettr:
[...]f we are generally agreed on the innocence of John and Zippitpleeze[...]
If you are innocent, you are doing a very poor job of saying things in a way that would transparently convince me of your innocence.
But I acknowledge that I cannot quite think how your proposal that we follow John's lead in voting would be something that a Possessed could safely propose, no matter how much the Possessed were trying to pose as Innocent. (I have had various ideas about how the Possessed could make the recommendation to follow known Innocent John, and I'll post about them a bit later; they're a bit of a tangent to this post though and I am pressed for time.)
So if you are, as you claim, Innocent, then I have to put you in the same category as Joostein in this respect: you think completely differently than I do.
I will be completely re examining everything you have said from both points of view: (1) you are Guilty or (2) you are Innocent but think completely differently from me.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Eliabulon, thank you for your reply to my hesitantly raised doubt. That is an excellent reply and for me has the air of truth about it (rather than being, say, a fiendishly clever Guilty reply that has been composed to give the air of truth throughout a long reply).
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I had not thought of the Possessed making their choice of victim to be trying to avoid killing the Sympathizer. I thought they would try to kill someone who seemed obviously Innocent, because any obviously Innocent person could not be used to create spin, confusion, and false suspicions during today's Dimthing Day. I fully expected that person to be me, because for reasons that I still don't fully understand, people seem to generally think I'm clearly Innocent now. So I wonder if anything I'm saying seems to point fingers of suspicion at the Innocent in a way so as to make the Possessed think I might be the Sympathizer.
Or perhaps the Possessed chose to kill someone whom they thought it least likely that the Doctor might be protecting, thus maximizing the likelihood of making a successful kill.
Well, I am glad to be alive, and here is one thing useful about the death of Daisy (may she rest in peace and rise in glory): it removes a source of maddening mystery to me that kept picking at my mind and making it hard for me to focus on everyone else, that mystery being: is Daisy Innocent or Guilty? Because of her complete invisibility, I had zero evidence to help decide either way. So now I know. Good.
[ 24. March 2014, 12:54: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Oh , and I thought me and not John or Zapa, because John seems like the safe choice to self-protect, and Zapa had been protected by John before.
John, please continue to say nothing about who you protected or might protect. I only even violate my principle of not mentioning anything at all about protection (following Eliabulon's advice) because I felt I needed to acknowledge that there are other certainly known Innocents, and why I thought it would be me among that trio.
I will resume complete radio silence about protection now.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
A quick thought: based on the Reppik Tew Lynching, if Choey is Innocent, and given what else we know about Beings known for sure to be Innocents (*) then it seems to me that a straightforward configuration for the guilty is Ja'ayem, Hophtrig and Codine (or possibly Otto instead of Codine, with Otto as the Sympathizer. For the configuration that includes Codine, I haven't yet thought through who would be the Sympathizer). (Emphasis perhaps on "seems" -- I haven't turned this over in my mind 6000 times, which is what I normally do before posting.)
I have many more thoughts that I will set down as I get time. And I have much more analysis to do, considering this possible configuration as well as others. But what does anyone else think of this configuration?
(*) I now count Eliabulon on the list of certain Innocents. I have tried very hard to honor Joostein's self-sacrifice by seriously considering whether Eliabulon is Guilty, but all my considerations added together come down on the side of Innocence.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
(My previous few posts were posted without having yet read the posts since Choey's most recent post. As has this post. Now to read them.)
[ 24. March 2014, 13:51: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Choey:
Zippitpleeze
(Sorry to laugh, Zippitpleeze, but this is too good to pass unnoticed.
)
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
A quick thought: based on the Reppik Tew Lynching, if Choey is Innocent, and given what else we know about Beings known for sure to be Innocents (*) then it seems to me that a straightforward configuration for the guilty is Ja'ayem, Hophtrig and Codine (or possibly Otto instead of Codine, with Otto as the Sympathizer. For the configuration that includes Codine, I haven't yet thought through who would be the Sympathizer). (Emphasis perhaps on "seems" -- I haven't turned this over in my mind 6000 times, which is what I normally do before posting.)
I have many more thoughts that I will set down as I get time. And I have much more analysis to do, considering this possible configuration as well as others. But what does anyone else think of this configuration?
I can't say I think much of it
Of course I wouldn't, would I. More seriously though, I hesitate to base too much on just any one vote. For instance, although you don't know why I voted when I did, I know that it was issues of real life and time zone. I'm not asking you to believe me there, but if you accept that it's even a believable lie, you understand my objection to deciding people's guilt based on a single vote, without looking at the rest of their history. Besides not being possessed myself, I just don't think Hophtrig's history shows he is one, despite that vote. Trying to vote himself off as a sacrifice, could totally be a bluff, but he doesn't feel like that sort. If Eliabulon or Joostein had tried that now...
I think there it is pretty reasonable that at least one of Hophtrig or Ja'ayem voted for Otto because they thought he was guilty and didn't know the bandwagon was going to (correctly) go for Reppik. I'm probably influenced there in that I think still Otto might be guilty. Sure at least one of them might very logically be an innocent. Perhaps that makes Hophtrig the best choice for innocent of the two. He voted after Ja'ayem, and if innocent, had no possible way to know that his vote would make it a bit harder to vote a possessed off. I think Hophtrig saw a suspicious person (Otto) and figured that if support was building behind getting rid of him, that might be right. And yes that theory is supported by my general belief of Hophtrig's guilt.*
However, I see your point that the early people who didn't vote for Reppik very likely contained a possessed person. I've been trying to decide about Ja'ayem for a bit now, and I find it somewhat persuasive that he might have been trying to start a bandwagon for Otto. On the other hand, that requires Otto to be innocent, and I'm suspicious of him too. Practically though it does look like probably at least one of them is innocent. (Or am I missing a reasonable theory that includes both as possessed? Perhaps if Reppik was a sacrifice, but I find that concept weird. Still, as Ios has said, some people think differently than I do.)
*And yes I could be a possessed person trying to defend her fellow possessed, but I'm less worried about that currently because I think Hophtrig looks pretty innocent, probably more obviously innocent than I do.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Updating the List Of Three Suspicions with the previously missed-by-me suspicions of Reppik Tew:
On Dimthing day one, Zapaterietxe proposed we start by listing our three top suspicions. Here is what they were, with each busrider's name followed by their list of suspects.
Some people can count higher than three, so they listed more suspicions. I have converted instances of Otto's old name "John" into "Otto", but some of the Johns left on the list, whom I take to be Johns The Less (John The Lesses?) may actually be Ottos.
Top three suspicions:
Zapaterietxe: Choey, John, Hophtrig
Ja'ayem: Ios, Lucy, Eliabulon
Lady Celandine: Lovely Lesley, Eliabulon, Hophtrig
Lovely Lesley: Eliabulon, Hophtrig, Choey
Eliabulon: Joostein, Codine, John, Otto, Reppik, Daisy (all mostly on grounds of silence or unhelpfulness up to that point)
Hophtrig: Crimson, Otto, Lovely Lesley
John: (in no particular order) Codine, Lovely Lesley, Otto (all on grounds of being unrevealing up to that point)
Reppik Tew: Hophtrig, and any non-corporeal entities [which I, Ios, take to mean: Crimson and Zapaterietxe]
Joostein: Eliabulon, Crimson, Codine, Otto (the last two on grounds of silence)
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Updating my tentative assessments based on events and posts as I recall them, in light of the death of Daisy and recent posts. This will direct what I focus on as I reread the transcripts. This will direct what I focus on as I reread the transcipts. Drat, could someone turn this intercom off? Drat, could someone turn this intercom off?
Confirmed Innocent by Dafyd
Crimson (la vie en rouge) - INNOCENT, INSPECTOR, DEAD BY MURDER
Lesley (Kelly Alves) - INNOCENT, DEAD BY REAL LYFE
Her Eminence, the Lady Celandine Diamante De Cooperhoop / Lucy (Starbug) - INNOCENT, DETECTIVE, DEAD BY MURDER
Joostein Käse (JFH) - INNOCENT, DEAD BY LYNCHING
Daisy (Surfing Madness) - INNOCENT, DEAD BY MURDER
Believed Innocent by Role Claim
John (Barefoot Friar) - INNOCENT, DOCTOR
Zapaterietxe (Ariston) - INNOCENT, UNREADABLE
Believed Innocent by Observation
Ios (Autenrieth Road) - INNOCENT by certain self-knowledge.
Grafinn Ekatarina Eliabulon (Eliab) - INNOCENT for all intents and purposes in my mind.
Hunting for the two Possessed and the one Sympathizer in this group
Ja'ayem (Jay-Emm)
Hophtrig (Alban)
Cho Bacca Loriette (Banner Lady)
Otto von Biggleswarpski (no prophet)
Codine (Gwai)
The people in this group are listed in no particular order as far as my current assessment of their Guilt or Innocence. Most of the people in this group have one reason or another that could make me think they are Innocent. But they can't all be Innocent, so I must be being misled on some of them.
Confirmed Guilfy by Dafyd
Reppik Tew (Wet Kipper) - POSSESSED, UNREADABLE, DEAD BY LYNCHING
[ 24. March 2014, 14:34: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
My new list of passengers gives me a nice tight focus as I read transcripts of our bus tour so far: what did the pool of five suspects say, and what did other Beings say about them?
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Hunting for the two Possessed and the one Sympathizer in this group
Ja'ayem (Jay-Emm)
Hophtrig (Alban)
Cho Bacca Loriette (Banner Lady)
Otto von Biggleswarpski (no prophet)
Codine (Gwai)
The people in this group are listed in no particular order as far as my current assessment of their Guilt or Innocence. Most of the people in this group have one reason or another that could make me think they are Innocent. But they can't all be Innocent, so I must be being misled on some of them.
Since Otto knows that he is innocent, and is now convinced by behaviour and comments that Hophtrig is innocent, I pare this list down to 3. So far the FBC and Otto have limited info, and only hunches to know. And we'd have to include Ios in the group of unknowns, which is missing from the list, but seems to be behaving like Hophtrig, thus included, so the list is still the 3 sayeth the FBC, confirmed by Otto.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
That have given us a great gift, lads, if we are able to recognize it.
[...]
I'll consider and post in a bit. It is an incredible stroke of luck, though, for everyone but Daisy and the Possessed.
I do not know vat you are going to say, so ignore zis if it is not relevant ...
If you think zat ze Possessed have made a mistake in zeir choice of target vich zey could potentially correct tonight, it might be better not to tell zem vat zat mistake vas.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
Questions that I would like to answer:
What would Choey gain from us all following John rather than anyone else?
I suppose, in this case, the most obvious "anyone else" would be me. We all know what I think of the now-nominated Cho Bacca "Choey" Loriette. We don't know what John thinks about her. If John doesn't suspect her, or suspects someone else, suggesting this strategy might just keep the heat off of her.
Why would one of the Possessed suggest we review the words of the murdered?
We have 3 confirmed murdered innocents—Crimson, Lucy, and Daisy. Crimson's words on the first day were limited to hints that we might want to protect her; she never gave a list of 3 suspects, for instance. Lucy, while hinting (pretty strongly) that John was innocent, also never really voiced too many suspicions that anyone was guilty; yes, there were some, but nothing at, say, an Ios volume. Daisy hasn't said much of anything at all. So there's not much to work with, really.
Of those who were lynched/sacrificed, we have Reppik, who was guilty (risks/benefits discussed elsewhere); Lesley, who suggested Eliabulon (who I'm really thinking is innocent), Hophtrig (I think H. is looking more innocent as the days pass, but I know there's some debate on this) and Choey. Joostein, the most talkative, suspected the Grafinn first, decided I had to be her accomplice along with Reppik, and then thought Codine made a good sympathizer. While I think his plans really only work if you assume the Grafinn's guilt (and mine, which isn't really much of a live possibility at this point), I may go back over what he wrote on Codine. If it's based on roping…them…into our plot based on a pattern of perceived mutual guilt, I think we can safely discard that. If there's other behavioral evidence, however…
Why would Choey make a big deal out of me "filibustering?"
Easy. She doesn't want you to pay attention or read my questions. Now, this could be simply that a few of them are rather inconvenient. Saying that you could safely skip over them, that I'm just filling space rather than laying out a case, would mean fewer people would notice that she's dodging some pretty big accusations.
Choey, why are you still alive? Had the Possessed wanted to utterly discredit me, and if you were innocent, they would have killed you last night, not someone who was hardly even a blip on our collective radar. Daisy wasn't just suspiciously quiet—she was just silent. Had you been confirmed innocent in death, it would have been three strikes for me.
Choey, what do you mean by examining ACTIONS, not WORDS? Votes can be intentionally split, or, when voting en bloc, hidden in the crowd. Patterns of speech are still actions. Please explain.
Choey, why have you changed your investigating strategy? Last night, and the nights before, you exhorted us to examine actions. Now, you would have us examine the words of the murdered—in complete contravention of your previous statements!
Choey, why are you attempting to suppress people talking? There's nothing odd about me voicing suspicions and thoughts; in fact, I believe many of us hold it to be the key to survival. I notice Ios is speaking quite a bit lately; why, other than that she does not suspect you as vocally as I do, do you not accuse her of long-windedness? I notice that the Grafinn, Joostein, and John have been quite vocal themselves in the past; where was your desire to quiet them? I notice also the threats and aspersions included in your statements intended to quiet me; did you think I would fear them?
Choey, I have asked these questions before. You have not answered them.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I agree with you infinitely, Eliabulon. These are the kinds of things that convince me you are Innocent. If you were Guilty, it would be infinitely easy for you to say nothing at all, and wait and see if John would inadvertently help you. But you said something instead.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
And questions I think we might want answered:
Why kill Daisy?
It reveals nothing. Daisy has been fit into no patterns, has been entered into no conspiracies, and her death would end no lines of investigation. Kill me or the Grafinn, and you lose one of the biggest sources of false conspiracies that the guilty could use to point away from them. Now, granted, Grafinnblaming and Demonizing the Angel are pretty much dead strategies at this point, despite their past utility—I think the two of us are more-or-less clear, as clear as we can really be while alive—but that doesn't mean there isn't still that little bit of "what if" in the backs of our minds that can't be exploited.
John and Ios might have been protected. Ios, it's good to see you still with us; I had you written down as most likely to not make it to morning, since you were a universally suspected innocent who talked sense (and, from my point of view, some whom I trust to check my suspicions and point out their holes where they appear)—I wondered if you weren't laying out your thoughts because you suspected you weren't going to see this morning either. Going after either of these two would have been too risky.
Hophtrig is someone more-or-less cleared in my mind (subject to revision), perhaps clearing in others, perhaps looking worse; in other words, an innocent on whom suspicion can still be safely pinned. Too useful to kill, assuming he's innocent. I'd like to, at least right now—it would give us a shorter short list of potential suspects to comb through—but that's just personal preference. Take it or leave it at your leisure.
This leaves Ja'ayem, Codine, Otto, and Choey. If I'm right about Hophtrig (and, of course, everyone else), then two beings in this pool are guilty, and, in probability, one is a sympathetic Cultist. While the Cultist is harder to spot, and can't coordinate with the Possessed, I would argue that catching them would be an awfully nice consolation prize for missing one of our main targets—after all, that's one less vote for the Possessed faction. I may spend the morning running Possessed/innocent/Cultist scenarios for these four, to see what it would take to make sense of each of them. If anyone else has other ideas, I'd suggest speaking up before things get nuts.
[Commas are not apostrophes]
[ 24. March 2014, 16:27: Message edited by: Ariston ]
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig is clearly not a deep thinker. Hophtrig will sit here in his hidey hole, singing happy songs, if anyone wants to join him.
Hophtrig thinks Daisy was a good choice for the posessed, almost as good as Ios or John. Looking at the things the friends have said before, the friends weren't likely to throw Daisy off without a lot of hard work telling naughty lies. But most of the things the good friends said could be carefully twisted into suggesting the people who said them were naughty without too much work.
Hophtrig likes Choey's idea of listening hard to our friend John for ideas. Hophtrig will still listen to others, too.
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
Ve have a group of three (Choey, Ja’ayem und Hophtrig) vich is overvelming likely to contain ze sympathiser, und qvite likely to have a killer as vell. Vun enemy death puts us out of immediate danger of losing after two mistakes, two likely means victory. If ve play ze odds, zis is vere ve focus.
But if the group contains only one baddie their's a 33% chance of us lynching two innocents and losing the game directly, and even if us innocents get lucky, and find one first time then we still have to find who it's accomplices are. We need to focus on one of the other groups where at least one, quite likely two and possibly all three of the mafia must be.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Zapaterietxe:
I wondered if you weren't laying out your thoughts because you suspected you weren't going to see this morning either.
Exactly.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
Ve have a group of three (Choey, Ja’ayem und Hophtrig) vich is overvelming likely to contain ze sympathiser, und qvite likely to have a killer as vell. Vun enemy death puts us out of immediate danger of losing after two mistakes, two likely means victory. If ve play ze odds, zis is vere ve focus.
But if the group contains only one baddie their's a 33% chance of us lynching two innocents and losing the game directly, and even if us innocents get lucky, and find one first time then we still have to find who it's accomplices are. We need to focus on one of the other groups where at least one, quite likely two and possibly all three of the mafia must be.
Ja'ayem, which groups are you referring to? And who is in each of those groups?
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Ja'ayem, which groups are you referring to? And who is in each of those groups?
Probably not the one containing the role claimers but the one containing the ones not mentioned so (Ios, Codeine, Graffin and Otto).
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Ja'ayem, which groups are you referring to? And who is in each of those groups?
Probably not the one containing the role claimers but the one containing the ones not mentioned so (Ios, Codeine, Graffin and Otto).
So the one containing:
1. Not you (understandable)
2. Not Choey (less so, but could be coincidence)
3. Two generally suspected innocents (Ios and Eliabulon)?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ios wanders up and sits in the excellent front seat, with its magnificent view of the completely barren xtonic radiation-bathed plain. She hoped the bus would eventually be fixed and they could all get to see the promised sapphire blue falls. She sings softly:
50 posts per page on the thread,
50 posts per page.
If one of those posts should happen to fall,
49 posts per page on the thread.
She has found a bottle of Yaswerp and is feeling happy and relaxed. She loves to read, and the Dimthing Bus Tour So Far Archives are great fun to read when just read to observe the characters. Later she'll consider what she has learned about the group of five that she has determined are the limited pool remaining for consideration. But for now she's just enjoying reading the past events and admiring the creativity of all her fellow passengers. She is very glad that Clan JFH had spotted a member of Clan A.Road a month ago and sent a PeeYem which had resulted in Ios boarding this bus, after a long time of being away from any and all planets or Ships offering bus tours.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
The longer we roll along, the more I find myself wondering about Ja'ayem. Initially helpful, then posting a lot of static since. Getting pronouns and other details mixed up -- by mistake, or on purpose? Posting confusing, hard-to-follow lines of thought that seem to lead no where.
Should I nominate you, or do you want to explain yourself?
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
What would Choey gain from us all following John rather than anyone else?
I wouldn't read too much into this. At this stage, an innocent following a known innocent is a lot safer than a lot of other strategies I could devise. She doesn't trust you, but she acknowledges the fact that Celandine seemed to clear me; ergo, I am a trustworthy person.
I'm not defending anything else she has (or hasn't) said. Just pointing out this isn't an inconsistent or suspicious move.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
They had also been closely watching the Grafinn. Joostein was certain the Grafinn was operating a smokesceen. It may tell us a lot to look at who the recently disappeared had been suspecting. Lady Celandine, Lesley and Joostein had this as a common point: they had all distrusted the Grafinn.
This really doesn't mean a whole lot, since I think everyone on this bus has at least wondered about the Grafinn at least once; some of us questioned her every move. Not everyone who suspects the Grafinn is guilty.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
But I acknowledge that I cannot quite think how your proposal that we follow John's lead in voting would be something that a Possessed could safely propose, no matter how much the Possessed were trying to pose as Innocent.
Looking a ze numbers:
If John und Zapaterietxe agree, und are wrong, ze Possessed vote vith zem, und ve lynch an innocent – two mistaken votes und three guilty vuns is enough. Likely ze ozer innocents vould also support zis, so telling ze Possessed from ze innocent aftervards is no easier.
If zey agree und are right, ze Possessed cannot likely step zem because ze innocents have a strong reason to trust und vote vith zem – it is probable zat zey follow ze crowd und abandon ze doomed suspect.
If zey agree, but pick ze sympathiser, zat is more complicated, since ze killers may think an inoccent vas chosen ven in fact he is guilty. Again, though, to vote aginst ze known innocents is a risky move for anyvun, guilty or innocent.
If zey disagree, it is difficult for us, because if ve assume zat each can persvade vun innocent to support zem, ze guilty have ze votes to decide ze vinner. Zey vould have to disagree und BOTH be right about zeir suspect for zis to be a good outcome.
I think zat, vatever any individual may say in ze vote, our known innocents' views are likely to determine conclusively ze result. Ze guilty are probably not going to be able to save somevun accused by zem both. Choey is not, in fact, offering to give avay very much by offering to follow John – John vill likely get his choice vether Choey is guilty or innocent. Though it is a point rather in her favour to set against zose arguments against her.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
But if the group contains only one baddie their's a 33% chance of us lynching two innocents and losing the game directly, and even if us innocents get lucky, and find one first time then we still have to find who it's accomplices are. We need to focus on one of the other groups where at least one, quite likely two and possibly all three of the mafia must be.
Zose numbers are wrong.
If a group of three has vun guilty member, zere is a 33.33% chance of us guessing right first time (assuming zere is reason to suspect vun more zan anozer). Zere is a 66.67% chance of getting ze killer on ze first or second pick. If zere are two killers, zen ze combined probabilities after two picks are 33.33% of getting zem both, und 66.67 of only vun.
I think ze group zat did not vote for Reppik must have ze sympathiser, und may have anozer Possessed. Vich, means, I suppose, zat I am assuming zat vun of Otto, Ios und Codine is guilty. Of zose, my choice vould be Otto. But I am uncertain – I vould like to hear more und deeper thoughts from him (though I do not expect zat I vill). I think ze better odds are of finding a Possessed in ze groupd vich voted not to lynch Reppik zan in ze group of unproven people who did vote for him, but if zere is a solid case against Otto, Ios or Codine I vould like to hear it.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Gwai:
I've been trying to decide about Ja'ayem for a bit now, and I find it somewhat persuasive that he might have been trying to start a bandwagon for Otto. On the other hand, that requires Otto to be innocent...
No, it does not.
Please - ve cannot afford to make mistakes, und you are neglecting ze fact zat ze killers, at least at ze start, had no idea who ze sympathiser vas, und may vell still not know. You cannot assume zat if somevun who is guilty tried seriously to frame somevun else, zen zat somevun else is innocent. If ze first person is a killer, und ze second ze sympathiser, it is qvite possible zat ze first might mistakenly accuse ze second. But not ze ozer vay around, except as a deliberate ploy.
Zere is force in your argument - because ve can zen ask, if it is unlikely zat Otto und Ja'ayem are both killers, could it be zat zay are both guilty. Did Otto react so as to varn Ja'ayem zat he vas making a mistake?
Ze answer is no. Otto said zat Hophtrig vas guilty, but voted for Reppic as 'obviously guilty'. He did not respond to Ja'ayem at all as far as I can see. It vould be curious behaviour for ze sympathiser to vote for Reppik, if vun or both of ze killers clearly did not vant to lose him.
So your conclusion - Ja'ayem und Otto are probably not both guilty - is likely to be correct*. But ve must analyse zese things vith attention to ze role of ze sympathiser as well as just ze killers. If ve ignore so important a dynamic as two of ze killers not knowing who ze third is, zen ve are not thinking as clearly as ve need to be ven ve are so close to ze end, und zere is still all to play for.
(*Ze alternative zat fits ze facts is zat zey picked a fight at zis point to confuse us, vile effectively writing off Reppik. Also zat vould, explain Reppik's curious behaviour in making role claim after Otto vas in ze clear, but vould not explain vy ze killers did try harder to lynch an innocent zat day. Perhaps Hophtrig vas zeir target und zey thought more people hated Hophtrig zan in fact zey did. But I am not convinced of zis. I vish Otto vould say more, so I vould not be so tempted to draw conclusions against him from relative silence – at zis stage an unsafe move. Ze main unanswered qvestion, it seems to me, is vy Otto has had so dramatic a change of mind about Hophtrig. Und Otto I am asking you for your thoughts, but zose of ze FBC.)
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
Zose numbers are wrong.
If a group of three has vun guilty member, zere is a 33.33% chance of us guessing right first time (assuming zere is reason to suspect vun more zan anozer). Zere is a 66.67% chance of getting ze killer on ze first or second pick.
Maybe but I know lynching me would be unhelpful. I'm pretty sure Hoptrig is innocent, and while I don't know about Cho, I don't want to take the risk.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
Zose numbers are wrong.
If a group of three has vun guilty member, zere is a 33.33% chance of us guessing right first time (assuming zere is reason to suspect vun more zan anozer). Zere is a 66.67% chance of getting ze killer on ze first or second pick.
Maybe but I know lynching me would be unhelpful. I'm pretty sure Hoptrig is innocent, and while I don't know about Cho, I don't want to take the risk.
What is the risk—well, more than anyone else who is suspect? I'm growing more certain that Hophtrig is innocent—or, at the very least, not a live option for lynching today—but why are you especially reluctant to act against Choey?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
Zose numbers are wrong.
If a group of three has vun guilty member, zere is a 33.33% chance of us guessing right first time (assuming zere is reason to suspect vun more zan anozer). Zere is a 66.67% chance of getting ze killer on ze first or second pick.
Maybe but I know lynching me would be unhelpful. I'm pretty sure Hoptrig is innocent, and while I don't know about Cho, I don't want to take the risk.
Against whom would you prefer to act?
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alban:
Hophtrig is clearly not a deep thinker. Hophtrig will sit here in his hidey hole, singing happy songs, if anyone wants to join him.
Hophtrig thinks Daisy was a good choice for the posessed, almost as good as Ios or John. Looking at the things the friends have said before, the friends weren't likely to throw Daisy off without a lot of hard work telling naughty lies. But most of the things the good friends said could be carefully twisted into suggesting the people who said them were naughty without too much work.
Hophtrig likes Choey's idea of listening hard to our friend John for ideas. Hophtrig will still listen to others, too.
Is there room for the FBC and Otto in the HHH? I still have the flute, my third leg is bandaged nicely, and there seems to be a little left in the bottle we shared earlier. I should like to join you! We could have a nice singing session. But ready to listen hard with concentration also.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
There's always room for friends in Hophtrig's Hidey Hole, Otto and Squeezy are welcome in the hidey hole!
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
Maybe but I know lynching me would be unhelpful. I'm pretty sure Hoptrig is innocent, and while I don't know about Cho, I don't want to take the risk.
Ja'ayem, to me you are setting off almost as huge jangly alarm bells of positively broadcasting "I am Guilty" as Choey does. You both say things that sometimes seem crazy, and then other times you say things that sound reasonable.
I was going to reply to this post of yours by saying, sarcastically, "oh, so it must be Choey, Otto, and Codine." And then I thought, "wait a second, if you look at voting patterns in the Reppik Tew vote, that can work." Every other threesome I've tried from my Suspected Five fails at making any sense given the Reppik Tew voting patterns. I haven't tried all possibilities yet, and I haven't double checked my work, but this is notable, to get a trio that works as Guilty in the Reppik Tew voting.
I'm still going to examine everything though. Don't think you (or any of the Guilty) are getting off this easily. (Including there could be more Baroque explanations for some of the wierd voting patterns shown when you try to assume certain trios Guilty.)
(This may not be convincing to people who still have me and/or Eliabulon on their suspected list.)
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Oh wait, I see I had also proposed Ja'ayem, Hophtrig, and Codine or Otto as a pair of threesomes that could work. Hmmmm. (And for my pains, I got the usually elusive Codine to pop up and say she's Not Guilty.)
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
(This may not be convincing to people who still have me and/or Eliabulon on their suspected list.)
I'm not really sure how many of those people there are still on the bus, if any.
Alright, looking over vote patterns (I'm just beginning to read over yesterday's events, so bear with me), and given the usual assumptions about who's innocent, I'm wondering if the Possessed might not have voted en bloc for TESS; after all, the only one of us still under any suspicion who voted for any other option who is still alive is Otto. To make any other threesome (given that they have to include Reppik and his TESS nonvote) is to assume that the Possessed did not split their vote, as is often assumed. Therefore, the only combination that fits these assumptions and the first two days voting patterns is:
Reppik, Choey, Otto; Ja'ayem or Codine, cultist
Assuming all Possessed voted for TESS the first day, but split their votes the second, we get (taking into account statements of suspicion made the first day):
Reppik, Ja'ayem, Choey; Hophtrig cultist
R, Codine, Choey; Hophtrig cultist
R, Otto, Choey; Codine cultist (this is the only workable combination that assumes Otto is Possessed, given that Ja'ayem and Hophtrig cast early votes against Otto, which would be risky for a cultist who could not coordinate with the Possessed—and could likely condemn Otto if things didn't go just right later)
R, Hophtrig, Codine; Otto cultist
R, Hophtrig, Ja'ayem; Otto cultist
Unless I'm missing something, every other combination involves the cultist casting suspicion on the Possessed (which would be bad for the cultist, if not counterproductive), violation of some rule or other, or is just generally insane. That, of course, is assuming I missed nothing. Given that I'm distracted by desire for chicory coffee and beignets (thank you, John, that's exactly the thing I need to spend all day thinking about while I have no way of getting, much less, as a not quite ordinarily corporeal being, eating), that's not unlikely.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Interesting how often Hophtrig comes up in that list, isn't it? Interesting that Lady Celandine, Lesley and Ios had suspicions of Hophtrig early and that early on Hophtrig suggested John, Crimson and Lesley for eviction. All of them were innocent of course. By nominating Otto early on, Hophtrig could have been trying to lead the voting away from Reppik Tew. I still believe he is either mafioso or the sympathizer.
I am as resigned at having to leave the bus as Joostein was, and will happily vote against myself to prove it, as I have promised to follow the lead of John and Zapatarietxe. But, like Joostein, I am innocent. The dark angel may as well be one of the mafia, for all the good he is doing for the cause of we innocent passengers. 100% wrong twice in a row is not what we need at this point.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Please, Choey, don't vote yourself off. Hophtrig would miss you. You are a wonderful being, and your vote is important - using it for anything you do not believe would be a very bad thing, and would help the naughty people.
You are very clever at counting, Choey. Our friend Zapaterietxe suggested more ideas which have Hophtrig as naughty than he did any other being on the bus. Hophtrig will be interested to see what John thinks, too. But even if John votes for Hophtrig to leave, Hophtrig will not, because Hophtrig thinks it would be better if a naughty person got off.
Posted by Surfing Madness (# 11087) on
:
Daisy would have said something useful from the other side, if she had anything useful to say!
(In reality real life attacked alot during this game that I didn't really manage to get involved, sorry guys.)
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
John doesn't quite know what to think, which is why John hasn't posted much.
None of the suspects are particularly suspicious to me at the moment.
I may nominate someone later... I want to think a bit first.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
(This may not be convincing to people who still have me and/or Eliabulon on their suspected list.)
I'm not really sure how many of those people there are still on the bus, if any.
Ja'ayem appears to still include Eliabulon and me in the group of suspects, because he thinks there could be three Guilty in the group of Otto, Codine, Ios, Eliabulon.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Here's something wierd: at first Ja'ayem is going strictly by the numbers: more likely to find cultists in the group of 4 than the group of 3. Let's leave aside whether his purely probabilistic calculation is correct. Then he rules out himself and Hophtrig from the group of 3. Then, instead of saying "Wow, I've just increased the 33% probabiligy of hitting a Guilty in this group to 100% probability; Choey you're toast" (at least assuming there's some merit in Eliabulon's idea of why we should hunt in this group), no, instead of saying that, he says "I don't want to risk lynching Choey."
That seems deeply bizarre to me.
Could Ja'ayem, Hophtrig, Choey as Guilty make sense in the Reppik Tew vote, with Hophtrig as the Sympathizer, to explain Choey's early vote against him?
This is all preliminary, as I'm still reading the archives to refresh my memory on what happened, before thinking about what it might mean. I'm popping in occasionally to post here, reporting some thoughts I'm having as I have them, but nothing's definite for me yet.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Choey is claiming to be another Lesley or Joostein -- one who looks suspicious but who is actually innocent.
I don't know whether or not to believe that.
But she does say one thing that is correct: Today we cannot afford to lynch an innocent. Whomever we choose must be guilty. I would go a step further and say that I'd much rather have a guilty than a sympathizer. Getting the sympathizer only buys us another day. Getting one of the guilty brings this ordeal closer to a satisfactory end.
I will repeat what I said earlier. Ja'ayem is looking more and more suspicious to me. I don't have time to build a case at the moment, but when I do have some time I intend to figure out just what the heck is going on.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Codine stepped forward, and nodded toward Eliabulon.
"Thank you for the reminder about the sympathizer, Graffin. You are right of course. That theory implies Otto is not one of the two, but he might well be a sympathizer. That does imply though that if I'm thinking that way I should focus more on Ja'ayem or Cho' Bacca. (Still not sure at all about her. If she's innocent why is she so obsessed with Hophtrig. After all, she said she would follow John, but now she's nominating her old flame. Still, I will look at him again. Maybe I'm wrong to trust crazy Hophtrig. Either way though I don't think it is in our interest that I nominate someone as long as a person I am somewhat suspicious of has already been nominated."
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Oh wait, I see I had also proposed Ja'ayem, Hophtrig, and Codine or Otto as a pair of threesomes that could work. Hmmmm. (And for my pains, I got the usually elusive Codine to pop up and say she's Not Guilty.)
Codine smiled. "HE is not guity, ma'am. I wear a hood and cover my skin, because that is my culture, but you may trust that I am male."
"Codine is thinking, and note that he is happy to share his suspicions etc. Codine just doesn't talk to fill space in some hope that if he makes enough noise you'll trust him. I'm going to presume you are all too smart for that.
However, you have seen my thoughts. The problem is that we all mostly agree generally about where suspicion lies. Anyone who has left clearly has not sent up a huge red flag about their guilt or we'd have caught them by now, so it's the more thoughtful detailed theorizing that will win the day now." Codine turned back toward the Graffin again. "And no, don't worry, Eliabulon, I am not advocating silence."
[ 25. March 2014, 12:32: Message edited by: Gwai ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Sir Codine, I most deeply apologize for confusion about your gender, and am most grateful that this apparently is not quite a mortal insult in your culture that would have required us to fight a duel to the death. This aisle is a bit too small for such a duel, should it have been necessary, and I understand that the xtonic radiation outside, had we taken our duel outside in favour of the greater space available for dueling, would have stopped our duel before we had even completed our 20 paces away from each other.
I did think, even as I posted, that in all fairness you may be one who is always reading but only posting when you have something to say. Unlike, say, me, who is also always reading, and always can think of something to say.
I make no judgement on whether my way is better or not, just that we're very different in that regard. What would a Bus Tour be like without having to consider, not only logic, behaviour, and psychology, but also fundamental differences which cause the Innocent to all act completely differently from each other? Of course, I also think of you as someone who is able to say the most astonishingly Innocent-sounding things while being completely Guilty (this is a compliment) so I am not convinced either way of anything yet. But I am considering what you have said.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Of course, I also think of you as someone who is able to say the most astonishingly Innocent-sounding things while being completely Guilty
Intercepting sub-space communication from USS Pot to IKV Kettle....
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
In my rereading of the Bus Tour Archives, I have come to this and I'm stuck because it has lodged itself in my brain and I'm finding it hard to ignore it and keep reading. It may well be completely moot at this point, but can anyone explain it? This is for the sake of clearing my mind so I can continue reading without being distracted from more pressing issues by this.
Eliabulon and Joostein on early strategy:
quote:
Originally posted by Joostein:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliabulon:
I am not convinced zat ve should not evict somevun. I think zat is trusting too much in our investigators to solve ze puzzle for us. Ve do not have to be very unlucky for zat to fail.[/qb
[qb]Wroong. Bäddies oonly oone kill æch night. If they be quick lucky we knoow änd ädäpt. If they very lucky we noo loose twoo nights, oonly oone. Minoor looss. Blooting noow incræse their oodds. Unless sure. Yoou tälk Looke änd loook Midgärd Serpent, soo foor yoou I think of mäke exc... exce... spec... spe... spexceptiäl cäse. Ooff-throow foor being bäddie, noot foor seeing foolk's vootings.
Can anyone explain what Joostein is saying? I gather that J and E are disagreeing about the proper early strategy based just on numbers, but I can't figure out how to state the two strategies explicitly, nor how to compare them. Help?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
In my rereading of the Bus Tour Archives, I have come to this and I'm stuck because it has lodged itself in my brain and I'm finding it hard to ignore it and keep reading. It may well be completely moot at this point, but can anyone explain it? This is for the sake of clearing my mind so I can continue reading without being distracted from more pressing issues by this.
Eliabulon and Joostein on early strategy:
quote:
Originally posted by Joostein:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliabulon:
I am not convinced zat ve should not evict somevun. I think zat is trusting too much in our investigators to solve ze puzzle for us. Ve do not have to be very unlucky for zat to fail.[/qb
[qb]Wroong. Bäddies oonly oone kill æch night. If they be quick lucky we knoow änd ädäpt. If they very lucky we noo loose twoo nights, oonly oone. Minoor looss. Blooting noow incræse their oodds. Unless sure. Yoou tälk Looke änd loook Midgärd Serpent, soo foor yoou I think of mäke exc... exce... spec... spe... spexceptiäl cäse. Ooff-throow foor being bäddie, noot foor seeing foolk's vootings.
Can anyone explain what Joostein is saying? I gather that J and E are disagreeing about the proper early strategy based just on numbers, but I can't figure out how to state the two strategies explicitly, nor how to compare them. Help?
[ETA: Dear E:
. Signed, Pot.]
[ 25. March 2014, 14:35: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Sorry, confused the Edit and the Quote buttons.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
The Grafinn wanted to throw someone off the first day. Joostein's point was that such a decision is highly likely to lynch an innocent. Joostein decided that the Grafinn's suggestion was too bloodthirsty, unlikely to work, and possibly even caused by Possession.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
That intercom is annoying when it repeats things, isn't it Ios.
Hophtrig's automatic subtitle writer came up with this, if it is of any use:
quote:
Eliab:
I am not convinced that not evicting someone is wise. I think puts too much trust in our investigators to solve the puzzle for us. It would not take much bad luck for that to fail.
Joostein:
You are incorrect. The possessed can only kill one of us each night. If our investigators are lucky we know this and adapt to same. If they are very lucky, we will not lose an innocent on two nights, but only the one. This would only be a minor loss. Making a sacrifice now will only increase their odds of success, unless we are certain who it is we want to sacrifice. Your speech and appearance are evil, so I believe we can make an exception for you. We can throw you off as a being who is possessed, not merely to see how people vote.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
John is so clever. He summarised it so much better than Hophtrig's translator. And Hophtrig didn't even notice John there until Hophtrig looked back and saw what John said.
Here, John, come into the hidey hole, sing and drink with your friends for a while. We're having so much fun in here!
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
John and Hophtrig both gave helpful translations. Using both together helped me even more than one alone. What good friends Ios and John and Hophtrig are, even if Ios is not yet sure if a naughty being has possessed Hophtrig's mind or not.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Ios!
Big Hug for Ios!!
Ios is so sweet and kind and thoughtful! And Hophtrig's good friend Ios even sounds a little bit like Hophtrig. Hophtrig likes that! Big Hug!!
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Oh, Hophtrig is so inconsiderate sometimes. Sorry friends, Hophtrig has big hugs for everyone!!
Ja'Ayem, here's a hug for you, you quiet, thoughtful creature. I hope we can get this bus started and give you your Dimthing pilgrimage.
Graffin Ekaterina. Here's a regal embrace and kiss for you!
Codine. Though you are reserved, no'one's too reserved for a Hophtrig Hug! C'm'ere!
Choey! Jumphug for you!!!
Otto, a group hug for Otto and Squeezy!
John, Big hugs for John!
Zapaterietxe, I know you don't do hugs. So come on, friends, let's all blow in Zapaterietxe's direction, on 3, 1... 2... 3... {Puff}
Oh, Hophtrig so loves Hophtrig's friends, one and all!!
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Are we smoking things as well as drinking the HHH?
Ios has stated what Otto was wondering about Grafinn's quick nomination. Hophtrig is offering worldly delights in the unworldly bus. Ios is offering intelligence.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
If it is necessary to vote oneself off the bus, Otto agrees he would sacrifice himself as an innocent too. But doesn't want to. But it seems noble but at the same time a bunch of barney he's rather avoid. It would probably hurt wouldn't it?
The FBC has to go with Otto because the FBC is an integral part of Otto's wardrobe. Thus, although not bleeding any more, Otto will lie down for while and consider that people think he is a very naughty boy when he knows he is not either naughty, misguided nor has he sympathy for any devilish baddie. Otto is not certain if he will be allowed to rise and play or fight with you all again given that he features on these lists of some of you less fabulously dressed. Perhaps some of you are jealous of his accoutrement, the FBC? You can play with the FBC, even play dress-up, but Otto thinks he can only be smart if he comes and goes with all aspects of his attire.
Otto thanks Hophtrig for the joy of hugs and drink and smoking in the HHH.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ios has been scared by friend Hophtrig's list. It seemed so short. It brought her face to face with the fact that most of the known Innocents are dead, and the living Presumed Innocents are outnumbered by the Possibly Guilties by 4 to 5.
Friend Hophtrig, I know you didn't mean to scare Ios, but Ios is scared. Can Ios borrow your fluff-and-spring to fight off the too-numerous naughty beings if we fail to find one of the naughty beings today? In the meantime, I'm hiding under a pillow with this nice bottle of Yaswerp and continuing to read. But the story is getting strange because everyone seems Innocent and nothing makes sense.
Great, if Ios keeps talking like this, people will think it's a Hophtrig-Otto-Ios conspiracy, just based on linguistic similarity. Huh, I wonder what other evidence there might be for that? Hey, that's not a bad idea! Look at combinations I know are wrong, and see what case can be built. That way I'll know what certainly wrong conspiracies feel like, and I might be better able to recognize the right conspiracy when I find it.
Greatly cheered by this new fun activity, Ios arranges the pillow so just enough light seeps in, and continues reading, taking occasional breaks to play "what-if" with her new idea.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
"Oh bloody four-letter-word-for-underworld," mutters Ios. "It's unexpectedly complicated to clear even a known-to-be-wrong conspiracy theory."
At first she thought she had seen H-O-I to be transparently impossible given the Reppik Tew vote. Then she realized she'd forgotten about the Sympathizer. Then she realized that she was seeing ever-more complex possibilities of wheels within wheels and losing track of her chain of thought. Then she realized that the "inconceivable", once thought of in order to name it as "inconceivable", is no longer inconceivable and must be considered as a possibility.
"So what does this tell us, boys and girls?" Ios asks herself, wondering if assuming the manner of a hug-happy holovision host would help her gain some insight. "It tells us that logic is a deceitful siren call, and we must try to finish reading the archives with an open mind, and then consider the totality of the evidence, and wait patiently for insights then."
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
John and Hophtrig both gave helpful translations. Using both together helped me even more than one alone.
I think zeir interpretations are right. I think zere vas a case for not lynching on ze first day, because, if our investigators had lived, ve vould be investigating vun person each night, for ze loss of vun person murdered, und zat is a net gain in knowledge. It vas also right zat on any particular day, ze chance of nominating a guilty person is less zan ze chance of making a mistake.
On ze ozer hand, ve vin only by evicting ze guilty, und ve get few chances to do it. I do not like to vaste ze first of zese chances. Und investigators have ze unfortunate habit of being murdered, as happened here, so vile I vould be glad to see our specialists vin for us, I vould not rely on zem totally to do so.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Eliabulon, you're awake!
Checks Eliabulon's time zone, wonders if Ios' own crazy day has made her reverse timezone arithmetic, decides, that no, Eliabulon is awake at an insane hour of the morning.
Do you know who has been nominated by whom, and if so, can you post it? I'm trying to find out so I can figure out if I want to nominate anyone else or if I'm content to choose among our current nominees, but I'm also trying to finish rereading the d*mn transcript so I can ... you guessed it: figure out if I want to nominate anyone else.
If you could post the list of nominees it would save me some time.
I keep getting stalled in my reading of the da*n transcript because I stumble over interesting logic problems of "does this read like Guilt or Innocence? what about this or that alliance?" and lose sight of my goal which is just to read the dam* thing so I know what happened, and then only after that think about what insights I might gain from having read through the *amn thing.
Thanks.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by no prophet:
If it is necessary to vote oneself off the bus, Otto agrees he would sacrifice himself as an innocent too.
Ze last thing ve need is anozer dead innocent. If you are vun of us, you vould be serving us better by arguing vith all ze force zat you can for your own innocence, rather zan make a vasteful offer to sacrifice yourself.
My concern about you is zat your contributions to ze discussion have been few und erratic. Ze impression I got of you, on reading ze transcripts, vase zat you have said zat Reppic vas "obviously" guilty (und how did you know?) und zat Hophtrig vas guilty too, but vith no reasons for zat. Later you changed your mind, again vith little or no stated reason, und said zat Hophtrig vas innocent. You have voiced vague suspicion of me und Ios, und zen trust of Ios, again vith very little reasoning. Und zat is about all zat you have said of any veight. If I have missed somrthing, I am sorry, but I think zat is most of vat you have said.
I vould suspect vun of two things: either you are somevun who believes zat zis contest is vun of chance und not capable of being solved by thinking, so you have not seriously tried, or you are in some vay a specialist und are trying to remain inconspicuous. Und, of course, ze only unclaimed specialists left are not on our side, but are ze killers und zeir sympathiser. I vish zat you vould answer qvestions und engage seriously vith discussion. As it is, I do not feel I know enough about ze vay you think. Und at zis stage, I do not like it at all zat ze vay you think is still largely a mystery to me.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
If you could post the list of nominees it would save me some time.
I think zat zere are two:
Choey (by Zapaterietxe)
Hophtrig (by Choey)
I vould like to know vat case Choey makes against Hoptrig. Of ze two nominees, I vould vote for Choey as more likely to be guilty, but if zere is some good reason to suspect Hophtrig (or anyvun) ve need to know it.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Thanks, E. Is there anyone you would nominate yourself?
[ 26. March 2014, 00:33: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
A bit of wisdom from TVAPWCBU:
quote:
Originally posted by Sherlock Holmes:
When I’ve eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how mad it might seem, must be the truth.
The problem, I've discovered so far on this bus trip, is not accepting the mad final option. It's eliminating the impossible to start with.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
A bit of wisdom from TVAPWCBU:
quote:
Originally posted by Sherlock Holmes:
When I’ve eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how mad it might seem, must be the truth.
The problem, I've discovered so far on this bus trip, is not accepting the mad final option. It's eliminating the impossible to start with. What do you do when every theory you try seems impossible, and every theory you're about to dismiss with "well that couldn't possibly be so" comes back knocking at your mind hissing "oh yessssss, I could!"
I've been thinking about simple actions, bluff, and counterbluff. Is there any way to tell the difference?
There are some things various people have posted that had me thinking "that makes no sense for a Guilty One to post, because it works against the interest of the Guilty Ones, and it would have been very easy to just omit saying this, or say something slightly different, and not work against the Guilty Interests." And then I start thinking "But maybe it's a deviously clever bluff, whereby the way in which it might work against the Guilty Interests is outweighed by the apparently incontrovertible evidence the statement provides for the speaker's (feigned) Innocence."
And then I'm in a big pickle.
My Real Lyfe app seems to be stuck on "Waiting For A Vendor Support Rep To Call Me Back," so while I'm twiddling my thumbs before I can make more progress on the "I Am So Glad We Decided To Upgrade Software Tonight Because If We Had Done It At Our Normal Time Early In The Morning To Finish Before The Work Day Starts So As Not To Inconvenience The Users, We Would Be Complete Toast Because It Would Be 11 A.M. Now And They Would Be Pissed (*)" challenge, anyway while I'm twiddling my thumbs I'll do some more Bus Tour "We Have Enough Logic Problems To Send You Screaming Into The Xtonic Radiation Just To Get Some Relief" Archival reading.
(*) Extremely Angry, on this side of the pond. I think I could use being Pissed in the sense from the other side of the pond. Pass me another Yaswerp.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
At the moment, Eliabulon, I tend to agree, I find Choey more suspicious than Hophtrig.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
Interesting how often Hophtrig comes up in that list, isn't it? Interesting that Lady Celandine, Lesley and Ios had suspicions of Hophtrig early and that early on Hophtrig suggested John, Crimson and Lesley for eviction. All of them were innocent of course. By nominating Otto early on, Hophtrig could have been trying to lead the voting away from Reppik Tew. I still believe he is either mafioso or the sympathizer.
I am as resigned at having to leave the bus as Joostein was, and will happily vote against myself to prove it, as I have promised to follow the lead of John and Zapatarietxe. But, like Joostein, I am innocent. The dark angel may as well be one of the mafia, for all the good he is doing for the cause of we innocent passengers. 100% wrong twice in a row is not what we need at this point.
Interesting that Hopfrog doesn't come up on my "but this fits the facts" list, just the "let's discard some common assumptions" list. Interesting how our opinions change over time when given further information. Interesting how you circumscribe the sample size to fit your purpose. Interesting how it's really easy to not be wrong when you've never been tested and wager little. But most of all:
Interesting how I keep posing the same questions to you, and you keep on dodging them.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey flicked on her explainiator.
We have a small pool of passengers to choose from.
John (generally agreed as innocent)
Zapatarietxe (generally agreed as innocent)
Apparently that statement alone, and the use of the word "generally" makes me sound guilty, according to Ios. I thought it was a fairly accurate reflection of the state of play.
Hophtrig
Ja'ayem
Codine
the Grafinn
Otto
Ios
Choey
Of these, only four are innocent. As we are trying to find the most innocent, and as words mean so little (otherwise we'd all be sure by now), I prefer to look at behaviour. The nominating, the voting and any distraction patterns. Obviously this makes me suspicious, because I do not think like the rest of you.
Hophtrig - suggested Crimson, John and Lesley (all innocent) to be evicted, but went with the flow of TESS. He then led the accusations against Otto and voted early for him instead of the mafioso Reppik Tew. I have been considering since that time that if Hophtrig is bad, then could the Graffin could be in league with him? This is still feasible, though I do not understand why the Grafinn would make the casting vote to send Reppik Tew out the door unless Reppik Tew wanted to go and it was convenient timing to give the mafia cover. This is a long shot.
Ja'ayem suggested Ios, Lesley and the Grafinn could be in league, went with TESS and then voted for Otto. This would make him a likely innocent if Ios, the Grafinn and Otto are mafia. It makes him suspicious if Ios, the Grafinn and Otto are innocent.
Codine has offered little to go on, voting TESS, not nominating anyone, and voting late when she has to. If Hophtrig is bad she is probably innocent. She is discretion itself, as one would expect from a good servant of a dark master, and therefore hard to read.
The Grafinn made a decisive action to get rid of Reppik Tew, and led the charge against the innocent Joostein. So it's 50/50 as far as reading guilt or innocence.
Otto has understandable suspicions of Hophtrig, and has played the part of a frightened passenger well. If Otto is mafia, then Hophtrig is innocent. One of them must be guilty, in my humble opinion.
Ios found the quick nomination of Otto odd, then asked for the detective to declare themselves. Something the mafia might do. But it also suggests she and Hophtrig are not in league.
I have maintained my innocence, and my principal suspicion of Hophtrig. Being unswayed by all the spurious rhetoric flying about the bus makes me consistent, not guilty.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
On the first day, Hophtrig was clear that he wasn't going to throw anyone off. Hophtrig had an idea about coordinating votes for the second day. Most people thought it was a bad idea, so it didn't happen. Hophtrig didn't think it was a good idea to throw anyone off on day one.
The Graffin suggested we think of three suspects for naughtiness, and Hophtrig gave three suspects. Hophtrig did not want them thrown off, Hophtrig just wanted to say which of his friends he found most suspicious that day. Hophtrig takes throwing people off far more seriously than that, his mind had changed by day 2 when they got to know him.
On the second day, Hophtrig nominated Otto. He nominated quickly because he had formed his suspicions and wanted them to be noted before his investigation of reallyfe. Hophtrig gave reasons.
Hophtrig has stood by his nomination since. Hophtrig has been, just like his friend Choey, consistent in his voting.
Hophtrig is your friend, whoever you are.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig forgot, Hophtrig has a big hug for Choey! Choey's explaniator works well, and Hophtrig understands what Choey is thinking. If Hophtrig wasn't Hophtrig, Hophtrig would be suspicious of Hophtrig, after Choey's explaniator's explanation.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
As Hophtrig and I are both maintaining our innocence, then it is up to the rest of you to work out whose eviction will tell you the most.
Unless there are any other nominations forthcoming.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
So, looking through what our pool of 5 said during the night before Lucy was killed/the morning after:
(Abbreviations: R: Reppik; V: Joostein Käse the Viking (look, I'm desperate here!); C-Choey; K-Codine; J—Ja'ayem; H-Hophtrig; O-Otto, others are probably clear)
—Just after R's death, J does vote counting; CJHV and Lesley voted for non-R; K voted when it was too late to vote for anyone else; O when there was a bandwagon. J—admittedly, a potentially unreliable source—thought there'd be a Possessed in multiple groups. If he's Possessed, he's probably lying; if he's sympathetic, who knows; if innocent, lean toward right, but also who knows.
—Ios suspects O and C
—John's suspicions of our group at end of day: J innocent, H ditto, K unclear, C lean toward Possessed, O ditto.
—I thinks K clear—why would P's try to clear innocents?
—O claims to be throwing out bait, see who takes it.
—John: O&C P's, Daisy Sym? (impossible, Daisy cleared)
—GEE: Killer will be among (of those left) C, J, H. O being P fits facts. Of C, V, H, H is likely innocent.
—J: R looked guilty, but Z could be acting from evil motives. H was fast to nominate O, which could also be evil; H looked more innocent than Z.
—H: O is quiet. Too quiet.
—O: H pretends to be nice, but is P, and is after O.
—C: focus on actions, not words. 3 (H, J, V) did not vote for R (note: neither did C or Lesley); O claims to be innocent, H is accusing him, therefore H is P; who's going to accuse O & C, huh? H, V, and J suspicious.
—John: split between H and O accusers.
—Lucy: why suspect Otto? H is unclear.
—C: H suspected Crimson, John, & Lesley; all three are innocent (wait, John was only suspected innocent at this point!), lead against O, vouched for V. V accused GEE, but distracted from H. J suggested I, Lesley, and GEE, and thought H. had a good idea. (As V is innocent, this looks…strange)
—Z: Hi there, C! Don't you look guilty?
—C: And you're not nice. I wonder why? I didn't see why we were suspecting R, and I thought he was role-claiming by "appearing less threatening." C. has nominated nobody, voted for someone only once (out of two times). Detective should investigate V, J, or H, and not C. Z looked suspicious until recently, I'm innocent, should we not rank people in order, see if a consensus is growing?
—V: Z's slipping, no?
—John: looks bad for C; O, C, and K could use some investigation.
—C: it would be bad if two innocents started accusing people; the P would just kill one of them and blame the other. C thought John and Z were P's, and Lucy the symp.
—John: is that a threat, C? And if you suspected me and Z, or suspected Z most, why'd you do nothing about it?
—Z: And if you suspected me, why chase H? Scenarios run, assuming guilt/innocence pairings of H&O. Lots of scenarios. C&O, then C&J look most likely, then O&K, then fuckall. H only really looks bad if C&O are innocent. Oh, and P's: if you want to make Z look bad, kill C.
—C: I expect P's are coming for me, one way or another.
Morning: Lucy died
—C: Z's still here.
—H: H&GEE suspected by Lucy, but probably deduction, not investigation. H still doesn't trust O.
—John: Lucy cleared me, but may have suspected O. Nominates O.
—GEE: only GEE firmly suspected. O&H only wondered about.
—John: O suspected, also C by association and own merits. J getting quieter. O&K could work. H suspects O, but if C is innocent, H is next choice. C may be more suspicious, but O keeps coming up time and time again.
—Lucy: "Don't trust the…" The who? The FBC? The Grafinn? The Angel? The Hooded Servant? The Host? The Animal?
—C: Perhaps Lucy investigated the next on her list after John. I'm nominating H, even though you all will come after me anyway.
—I: I don't know if we should suspect O&C, but there's a good case against them. Of course, good cases only matter so much.
—K: O, H, I, and John all seem clear.
—I: C, why H?
(There are posts being omitted, and, I suspect, still more to come; we're picking up on the brewing V/GEE storm that's only going to get much, much worse once I delurk. Oy. That's why I avoided this so long…heeere we go!)
—H is confused. If confusion is a sign of not knowing what's going on, and knowing what's going on in weird situations is a sign of guilt (having certain knowledge the rest of us don't), then H & I look good so far—H is first to throw up hands, for whatever that's worth.
—O: H & GEE look shady.
—J: quick summary, basic questions regarding Lucy's death. Expected fake role claim forced by now (which was Impending…); if she knew O were guilty, she could have set up voting differently; if she'd found a P, why would she have been quiet, knowing she could have been protected?
—O: RHV could (um, have) work(ed); V's been after GEE this whole time. Are O&C guilty like they looked at the beginning of the day?
—H: Who could have "The" before their name? Includes "The Hop-Thing;" oddly, omits "The Angel."
—I: Inclining towards O for information value.
—C: O is likely notP because he's been being a pacifist; H lead charge against O, and K, John, & Les. C picked up Lucy's detective cue clearing John. Z. arguing against C meant he got protected, rather than Lucy. GEE on watch; Z, John, and Lucy innocent; O and C, of course, clear. Voters for O—J, V, and H—most suspect. I, Daisy, and K suspect for late voting. V suspicious for GEEchasing, tops suspicion list—perhaps encouraging today's Vchasing episode? Perhaps encouraging my paranoia?
—H: Yes, H shows some guilty-looking behaviors. But Otto's worse. Sorry I do it, though.
—H: H can think of four suspects with "The" in their titles, H included (sigh, forget about me again whydoncha?)
—GEE: O is suspect b/c R looked like he was shielding O. C: can look guilty when not, but Z gives good reasons—and she didn't vote for R. K: quiet, but gets results. Not suspect. H: general feeling of innocence.
—H: Lucy seemed suspicious of GEE, H, and O. H isn't too suspicious of the first two, and Lu didn't seem that suspicious of O. H is confused.
—V: big accusation of GEE.
—O: Not too much to say; what do you want to know? H&GEE looked suspicious last round; too quick to conclusions, to quick to deflect (again, you people forgetting about me!); why did H target innocent O?
—H: so what are you/FBC thinking, O? Why suspect me?
—O: you're too quick to condemn me (O)
—H: Is this really just about revenge?
—H: Maybe analyzing Lucy's death scene isn't getting us anywhere, since she can't actually tell us anything.
—K: John & I innocent; Z and H likely so (H was never suspected); GEE, despite accusations mounting, not actively distrusted; C is obsessed with H only out of stubbornness; O stirs without solving, accusing without reasons; V is accusing for odd reasons, and J can't be read.
—C: 5 have suspected V. If H is symp, let's all go for V. I'll do whatever John does.
—V: I'm alive because I suspected GEE; role claim
—Z: Now isn't this interesting? Hat materializes. Not planning on eating it any time soon, though the mustard pot podium remains.
From here on out, I'm going to be leaving out lots of stuff. As you probably can't forget, it seriously Hits the Fan about here
—J: V role claims, Z advises laying low; outcome analysis based on whether V is P/doc.
—John: counters V's role claim
—O: O wanted R off, because arguments showed he was guilty (or that we were all on to him?). H did it for unknown reasons. H had no reason to go after O, except that H is bad. (Huh?)
—K: False doctor claim seems suspicious, no matter what, and confusing.
—K: If the most suspicious thing about me is my suspicion of those caught telling falsehoods…
—K: A false claim doesn't make any sense! I can't trust V.
—K: Distrust V most out of everybody, he's been caught in a lie. Don't trust GEE or O, either, just V least. Let's talk this one through.
—V: K made wild accusations; she's symp.
—V: with Z, K, C, and I "cleared," equal numbers P/I. J/H/O/D cannot all be P.
—O: Does anyone care what I do?
—John: I do; let's stand against GEE and Z!
—H: let's work together, like I've wanted to do all along. H distrusts V, will join with others.
—J: if/then scenarios; none of them look good.
—John: Z and O look like accomplices to GEE and R, probably Z.
—J: whoops, messed up my analysis. Thought your (John's) ambivalence was assuming GEE's guilt.
—O: GEE and H are colluding?
—O: I'll follow I today.
—C: Both GEE and V distracted from H. Should look at one of three who voted for Otto. V voted for Otto. V is alarming, but so is GEE. C will go with majority.
—O: Is Hophtrig good?
—I: I have no idea about O or H, but you two look less P'd than at least one of GEE or V.
—Z: Dramatic Entrance.
Okay, I give up. It all went even more to Hell here, and I can't take any more. I had some analysis that I noticed as I was writing, but now I've re-confused myself; if someone wants to pick things up here and sort through the mess that follows (Ios, you've been reading this, no?) to see what was said by or about K, C, J, O, and H, I'd appreciate it.
Bllaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhh…
The angel disappears into thin air even more suddenly than usual. Sometimes, holding condensed form is Just Too Much.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
Blargh. Can't stay rarified. Not while I have thoughts. I always have thoughts. I don't like these.
—We all agreed that Lesley and Joostein looked Possessed. It was pretty common sentiment, no? As in, I wasn't the only one who thought it, not by any means. In fact, looking over the last transcript, I noticed how Choey often pointed out how Joostein looked suspicious, in addition to Hophtrig. But that was just yesterday, and, again, probably trying to confirm my own suspicions. Now, many of us agree that Choey looks suspicious. Many of us agreed that Joostein and Lesley did as well. So who are the "many of us" who weren't exactly discouraging the rest of us from wild goose chases, but weren't eager to go running after Reppik?
—There's an advantage for the Possessed in saying "I'll vote how X does" or "I'll vote how the majority does," especially if X or the majority isn't going the right way. It's a great way to hide a vote, and, above all else, avoid taking responsibility for one's own decisions. While I've done my share of investigating, lobbying, and argument, I've never claimed that any of that was anyone else's fault but mine; anything I've said or done can be laid squarely under my etherial feet. One who is Possessed, however, would want someone else to take the blame for their very calculated "mistakes." So who's avoiding responsibility, or placing themselves in positions where they don't have to face a moment of truth?
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig has tried the post-adbreak summariser Hophtrig is compelled to carry, as a holovision presenter. Hophtrig fed it transcripts. Around this point it began emitting smoke and Hophtrig stopped it. Here you go, Zapaterietxe, my friend (and anyone else interested):
Joo: If Z innocent prove it in death. Z, K and Joo must go
Z: Joo is nuts, reminds me of Rep
K: Joo is p, probably symp. But, J, don't stop thinking and analysing, we can trust you.
I: Don't trust me, I know nothing.
Z: Joo reminds me of Rep. Joo is a liar. Joo wants to eliminate Z & K - wrongly. Joo neautralised the doctor. J didn't trust Joo, Joo is trying to deflect attention.
J: This is nuts. Either Joo or Z goes off!
J: Z is right. Z was right about me, I got it wrong. Joo screwed me over, I want him gone!
Z: Joo is poison flavoured with honey. I was wrong about Lesley. Choey prob looks guilty, but not as guilty as Joo. Joo reminds me of K and I don't trust them. Joo wants me gone. We were all sucked in by Joo.
C: J?!! H?!! Alcohol!
I: Why do you trust me now, Z? I'm in line with Z. Core belief - don't lie, Joo lied, Joo goes. No commitment to do anything the next day goes with this.
Joo: I'm innocent. If I'm innocent, Z & K are guilty. I'm going next day, then kill Z K.
Z: Joo isn't answering, just waving hands. Goodbye translator!
H: Why does Choey suspect me with J? H sees some similarities, so perhaps it isn't too long a bow to draw. H is confused.
I: Everyone sounds convincing.
H: Otto is too quiet. But Joo is a liar, H trusts the liar less.
Z: I's confusion and thought processes made me believe her innocent.
I: Z,K,Joo? Which first. Thinking.
Joo: It doesn't matter who goes first, so long as K goes. Lynch me first, I'm a liar.
Z: Lynch the liar. Joo reminds me of K, if guilty, the probably working with K. And I, you're a good thinker.
Joo: Among Z, C, O, H, C, D & J lie three p. You can find them.
Z: Joo poisoned the well. Joo should understand why he's thought guilty. Joo seems to be putting words in my mouth. Joo spoke of 'us', suggesting posession. Joo must die!
Z: Joo is p. If I'm p, why'd I lynch Rep? Why'm I so obviously chummy with K?
Joo: Methinks Z doth protest too much.
Joo: If I'm guilty, ignore me, when proven innocent, reread me.
Z: Joo is a disciple of K.
Z: K can't use her usual tactics, I'm onto her, so Joo is doing it instead.
Jay: Fencepost eror detected.
H: H will lynch liar.
Joo: I'm guilty, lynch me lynch me lynch me I'll talk a bit before you do.
J: I don't trust Jooo or K, and will promise Joo nothing. Joo screwed me over, but I don't trust K either.
Joo: Vote late, let me talk.
J: I'm no leade. I is innocent, so am I(J).Z,C & H are probably innocent. D & C are unknown. Joo, K and O are untrusted.
Joo: Think on what I say
K: John's doctor claim was bad for Joo. Had it been someone else, Joo wouldn't have confessed to lying.
I: Joo is batshit crazy.
K: Joo is the sympathiser.
Z: Joo won't answer awkward questions. Joo wants control. Joo's scenario is nuts.
H: Liar out.
Jay: Perplexed.
I: Joo goes today, I'll figure things out tomorrow.
K: Joo is guilty.
Everyone votes for Joo.
Cod: I suspect K, O and maybe Z.
Joo: Cod is sympathiser.
C: Follow J. Look at who's distracting and bullshitting. H & Z (Possibly O & I too). Don't claim false roles if innocent.
Joo: I suspected K early. Z & Cod defended her. Logic was not involved in this. Z & E's posts were coordinated. I'm pleased to have died exposing Cod, Z & E. The p are clever, like Z & K. K hasn't defended herself properly. Z & Cod have defended K. Z doth protest too much. Lynch Z & E.
Z: Joo spread confusion. K & I(Z) don't post together for good reason.
Z: If Joo innocent, then the Joo/K colaboration wasn't happening, so K is less suspicious.
Daf: Joo was innocent
All: WTF?
I: Doctor, heal yourself tonight.
J: Suggest
Z: Suggestions: C & O.
Jay: Suggestions: K, C & O
J: I suspect K, still.
z: Some people knew what was going on today, and were therefore unfazed.
O: Suggestions: K, H & I. Maybe.
I: Why are K, H & I related?
J: We need more infe.
Z: C is trying to rope innocents together as p. D & O are confused. K isn't pursuing an innocent, looks less suspicious.
Z: If they'd killed Choey, it'd've looked bad for me.
C: Suspects: C, O & Jay
[ 26. March 2014, 09:09: Message edited by: Alban ]
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Yes, as I have explained before, I thought it good to look hard at the three who voted for Otto rather than the unreadable mafioso Reppik Tew. Those three were Hophtrig, Joostein and Ja'ayem.
Voting Hophtrig off the bus would be enlightening for a number of reasons. If Hophtrig is guilty, then Otto should be innocent. If Otto is innocent then Ja'ayem should also be guilty. If Hophtrig is innocent then Ios and Codine should be the guilty ones.
Voting me off will tell you that I am innocent, as I have said. I do not know what else you could learn from my death, but this is now up to you. Do what you think is the most beneficial for everyone.
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on
:
<Voice of a fragmented algorithm>
Is the wordy angel forcing his fellow Circus hosts to read all this?
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
This is still feasible, though I do not understand why the Grafinn would make the casting vote to send Reppik Tew out the door unless Reppik Tew wanted to go and it was convenient timing to give the mafia cover. This is a long shot.
Although zat vould be strongly in my favour, it is not qvite accurate.
My vote made it impossible to evict Otto (und left ze only options as Reppik or no vun), but it vas not ze casting vote against Reppik. Zat vote vas Daisy’s. It vas a significant vote, because Reppik had made his (vague und, we now know, untrue) claim to be a specialist after my vote und before hers.
So I did not qvite seal Reppik's fate, though ven I cast my vote, zat is indeed vat I thought I vas doing, since I did not think zat all ze remaining voters vould choose 'no vun'.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Cho Bacca Loriette:
Choey flicked on her explainiator.
We have a small pool of passengers to choose from.
John (generally agreed as innocent)
Zapatarietxe (generally agreed as innocent)
Apparently that statement alone, and the use of the word "generally" makes me sound guilty, according to Ios. I thought it was a fairly accurate reflection of the state of play.
Choey, could you point me to the post of mine that causes you to conclude that "Apparently that statement alone, and the use of the word 'generally' makes me sound guilty, according to Ios." We may be having a massive failure to communicate, and if we can clear it up it might rehabilitate my view of you. I have a hunch about which post it is, but I don't want to assume anything.
[ 26. March 2014, 10:29: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
quote:
Originally posted by Cho Bacca Loriettr:
[...]f we are generally agreed on the innocence of John and Zippitpleeze[...]
If you are innocent, you are doing a very poor job of saying things in a way that would transparently convince me of your innocence.
I will be completely re examining everything you have said from both points of view: (1) you are Guilty or (2) you are Innocent but think completely differently from me.
I have no idea why anyone should expect a giant kangaroo to think like everyone else. It seems a little unrealistic, to me. But then, I am certainly different. I suppose you could chuck me out for that, if you like.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
I nominate Ja'ayem. Unfortunately I have no cleverly convincing argument at the moment because I'm on the wrong device. The one that has my notes is dead at the moment. I will try again later.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
quote:
Originally posted by Cho Bacca Loriettr:
[...]f we are generally agreed on the innocence of John and Zippitpleeze[...]
If you are innocent, you are doing a very poor job of saying things in a way that would transparently convince me of your innocence.
I will be completely re examining everything you have said from both points of view: (1) you are Guilty or (2) you are Innocent but think completely differently from me.
I have no idea why anyone should expect a giant kangaroo to think like everyone else. It seems a little unrealistic, to me. But then, I am certainly different. I suppose you could chuck me out for that, if you like.
Thank you, Choey. That is the post that I thought you would point out.
I want to try to clarify what I was explaining, and see if we can understand each other at all. I won't try that clarification in this post, because I need to think a bit to try to figure out what might be going on and how I'm reacting to it. But I'll say a bit about the background to why I'm thinking about this. Here is the background:
I am in the middle of a massive blowup with someone in Real Life where it turns out that we think COMPLETELY differently. Not just, "oh, yes, I wouldn't have thought of it that way, but I guess I can sort of see your point. I don't really agree, but I can see your point." But COMPLETELY different. We don't even speak the same language. It's like as if the conversations go like this:
Them: Would you like to have lunch?
Me: Why yes, the bishop's mitre does look wonderful. Glad you pointed that out.
Them: No, I didn't say that the moon is made of green cheese. I said would you like a meal?
Me: I don't understand a word you're saying. First you say "would you like to have lunch" and then you say "robins fly south in the winter" and I'm completely confused.
I mean, I'm talking Alice Through The Looking Glass levels of confusion in language.
And several things in your most recent posts, and my inner gut reactions to them, remind me of the way I react to her.
So thank you for answering my question about "which post." I need to do some reflecting.
My reflections do include that Zapterietxe may well be on a mistaken "I am totally convinced of your guilt" campaign, as he was mistaken with Lovely Lesley and Joostein. He was correct with Reppik Tew, but on the face of it he's running 2/3 mistakes, which undermines what would be my normal confidence in the apparent authority and thoroughness of his case against you.
Plus the comparison to my Real Life situation undermines what would be my own normal confidence that no-one Innocent could post the way it seems to me that you post.
I'm going to reflect on this, and post again on this topic when I can say something that might be helpful.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
<Voice of a fragmented algorithm>
Is the wordy angel forcing his fellow Circus hosts to read all this?
{OoC}No idea, suspect not.
…I mean, I suspect they're not, not that I suspect that I'm not making them. I think I'd know if I had those two tied up in my basement next to the tiny bikes, giant shoe collection, and giraffe unicycle, forbidding them to read anything I wrote. S and iF are free to ignore me at their leisure, just like everybody else already does.{/OoC}
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
{OoC, except really Ios is just like AR, so how could you tell if I'm OoC?}
Mr OoC, is that a giant collection of shoes, or a collection of giant shoes?
{/OoC}
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
I nominate Ja'ayem. Unfortunately I have no cleverly convincing argument at the moment because I'm on the wrong device. The one that has my notes is dead at the moment. I will try again later.
Yes, I'm noting a lot of attention being focused on the non-Reppik voters. They were trying to use it against Lesley, then managed it against Joostein. Some of us didn't know he was guilty.
It looks to me like someone's got something to gain, I don't know which is innocent out of Otto, Ios, Codeine, Eliab (I'm assuming you(John) and Zappa are innocent) and so I nominate Ios and hope whichever of you four is the innocent one support me (and if I have had the bad luck to nominate the innocent, sorry).
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Codine raises his eyebrows, though no one can see it because of his hood. "Four nominations? Unless I miss my count we are only six innocents. We had better beware that the vote is not split and thereby wasted. That would be a very nice thing for the Possessed, I think. In fact, I wonder if it is not already intended."
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Choey, you are a very clever roo, too clever for Hophtrig. Hophtrig's puzzled a bit.
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
Voting Hophtrig off the bus would be enlightening for a number of reasons. If Hophtrig is guilty, then Otto should be innocent. If Otto is innocent then Ja'ayem should also be guilty. If Hophtrig is innocent then Ios and Codine should be the guilty ones.
Hophtrig can see why Hophtrig's naughtiness would suggest Otto's goodness, but Hophtrig doesn't understand why Hophtrig's leaving will suggest Ios and Codine's are naughty.
quote:
Voting me off will tell you that I am innocent, as I have said. I do not know what else you could learn from my death, but this is now up to you. Do what you think is the most beneficial for everyone.
If Choey were proven naughty, it might suggest Hophtrig's innocence maybe? Or if Hophtrig were proven good, it might suggest Choey's naughtiness? Or Choey and Hophtrig could both just be very wrong?
Hophtrig understands how following others could be a naughty person's trick (if they knew the others were mistaken) but Hophtrig also thinks it is a trick that someone who is good, a little bit silly and confused (like Hophtrig) might use.
Hophtrig likes Choey, Hophtrig has liked Choey from the moment she bounced on board. Hophtrig thinks Choey is confused, Hophtrig knows how Choey feels.
[ 26. March 2014, 17:34: Message edited by: Alban ]
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
What is the case against any of the nominees? Otto is not seeing it, except that it is hunches. The FBC doesn't seem to have anything further to add either. It seems that it is based on impressions and that makes it almost a lottery by superstition.
Can someone tell Otto how the Bad People should be behaving just now? Otto has a sense of who is behaving like a Good Person, but we have Wolf People in Sheep Clothing and we want to know who are the Lambs, and cannot tell.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Yes, that is my point, Hophtrig. It would tell you about me, but not shed any light on anyone else. And thank you to the Grafinn who put herself back into the "possibly not innocent" category by saying that her vote did not oust Reppik as much as protect Otto from being evicted.
I do not believe there is a clear bead on anyone at the moment. If we vote to evict someone, it needs to lead us to a few conclusions. Choey thought about a picnic basket, and made her way to the back of the bus. She squeezed her enormous head and paws through the cage door, and dropped a checked napkin next to the nest. Then she produced a flask of non-alcoholic Long Island tea, and a plate of lemon freons for Ios, Otto and Hophtrig.
She projected her thoughts on to a little note that she left on the floor. "Sometimes we take a journey that does not have a happy conclusion. The journey is often still worth it. I am sorry that someone may have to leave the bus tomorrow. Let's hope the innocent can work together for a positive outcome."
[ 26. March 2014, 17:54: Message edited by: Banner Lady ]
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig's been trying to think about this. Hophtrig finds it hard to think about this.
There's 3 of us, confused if we're good, good actors if we're not. Choey and Otto, in a lot of ways you're like Hophtrig. You're friendly creatures, who came on board this bus for a good time. Hophtrig, as friendly as he looks, got suspicious of Otto, and suggested he leave the bus. Otto was sad about this and suggested Hophtrig back. Choey wanted to protect Otto from what looked like an unprovoked attack from Hophtrig.
Hophtrig still holds to his suspicions, Hophtrig won't let them go. But Hophtrig has learnt that Hophtrig is a silly being, and has resolved to be a little more quiet, and let the clever ones do the talking and nominating.
Otto and Choey, Hophtrig is sorry for starting a fight among us. Hophtrig does not expect Otto and Choey to vote in any way except the way that Otto and Choey's consciences tell Otto and Choey is the right way to vote. That vote could be for Hophtrig.
Whether or not Hophtrig is naughty, Otto and Choey (and everyone else on board) have been good friends to Hophtrig. I think Choey said it well, when Choey said "Do what you think is most beneficial for everyone"
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
I nominate Ios and hope whichever of you four is the innocent one support me (and if I have had the bad luck to nominate the innocent, sorry).
This is fascinating. You have just done exactly what I expected a Guilty person to do, and I expected it to be done late in the nominations, as you have done. However, I was expecting someone much more ambiguous than me to be nominated in this late nomination.
Please do tell us all, on what insight, logic, or whim, you chose me to be nominated?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Here's a little puzzle to entertain yourselves with, Innocent Beings. What does a late nomination of someone Innocent (und zat iz me, as ze Grafinn vould zay) suggest?
Or, perhaps I really look Guilty. In the freedom of being Innocent and being able to post blithely at will without sweating bullets over every carefully crafted deceptive word, which is what the Criminal members of Clan A.Road have to suffer through every time they have to take a bus tour -- well, in that freedom I haven't had to consider what case might be made against me. In that case, I would be fascinated to know what makes me look Guilty. Or conversely, if you think I'm Innocent, what tilts you that way?
I'm curious about human nature, and I like to hear stories about myself, which is why I ask how others perceive me and why. Do spend at least as much time considering the others as considering me.
I need to do some thinking to consider what this all means.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
Yes, I'm noting a lot of attention being focused on the non-Reppik voters. They were trying to use it against Lesley
Did zey? Who is 'zey'?
I did not think zat zere vas much discussion of Lesley at all. Und I looked for it. I thought zat vith Zapaterietxe (innocent) astutely accusing Reppik (guilty), it vould be a natural temptation for ze killers to encourage him to follow up on his suspicion of Lesley, vich vas plausible, but wrong.
I only saw zat Ios und I had made any significant comment about her. I said zat I thought she vas innocent. Ios seemed to think ze accusation vorth considering, but thought zat she could be innocent even so.
Zere simply vas no drive to evict Lesley. Maybe zere vould have been, had she not died, but in ze transcripts zere is no evidence to support zis thing zat you are saying.
Zis is vy accuracy is so important! If everyvun vere scrupulous about ze details, zen ve could be sure zat misstatement such as zis vas an attempt to misdirect. Still, I must remember I am not amongst Pavians, und zere are many in ze galaxy lamentably indifferent to precision. So I vill ask you to explain vy you said zis.
quote:
I don't know which is innocent out of Otto, Ios, Codeine, Eliab (I'm assuming you(John) and Zappa are innocent) and so I nominate Ios and hope whichever of you four is the innocent one support me (and if I have had the bad luck to nominate the innocent, sorry).
I know Ios is capable of concealing her intentions very vell, so I vill never trust her completely, but I have not seen anything from her zat suggests guilt, except for her endorsement of ze insane investigation scheme zat Hophtrig proposed at ze start. Und as ve know Crimson fell for zat too, und as Crimson has a different, but similarly devious, mind to Ios, so it is not incompatible vith innocence und cleverness*.
I vould love to hear any reason to mistrust Ios, because if she is guilty, ve cannot expect more zan a slight hint of zis.
(*I vill be frank und say zat if Crimson had not thought in ze same vay as Ios, und still been innocent, I vould been very much more suspicious of anyvun who approved Hophtrig's scheme, since I think it vas obviously in ze killers' interests for us to do it.)
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ja'ayem, I have to thank you. I've been working so hard to find some answer to the conundrum of who is Guilty and who is Possessed, but your nomination of me is so incredibly entertaining (if you're Guilty) and fascinating (if you're Innocent), that I am just completely amused at the way the universe works and will be happy just to play with this pretty puzzle, even if I never find a solution.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
Yes, that is my point, Hophtrig. It would tell you about me, but not shed any light on anyone else. And thank you to the Grafinn who put herself back into the "possibly not innocent" category by saying that her vote did not oust Reppik as much as protect Otto from being evicted.
Accuracy is important. Even if ze mistake is my favour, ve must not reason from false premises.
You are right about ze effect of my vote, although ze intention vas indeed to evict Reppik.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Gwai:
Codine raises his eyebrows, though no one can see it because of his hood. "Four nominations? Unless I miss my count we are only six innocents. We had better beware that the vote is not split and thereby wasted. That would be a very nice thing for the Possessed, I think. In fact, I wonder if it is not already intended."
Ze difficulty I see is not ze number of nominations (ze vote generally resolves into a contest of two, however many ve start vith) but ze small number of innocent votes.
Unless ze guilty vote vith ze innocent for deception (und, of course, zey might) ve need five of ze six innocents to agree to eject somevun. Zis means zat if two innocents are wrong, all ze guilty can vote vith zem, und ensure zat ve do not find our target.
In particular, it means vat if our two known innocents, Zapaterietxe und John, vote differently, und each have at least vun innocent supporter, ze killers have an effective casting vote.
Of course ve must not forget zat ze sympathiser complicates zis - if ze sympathiser is nominated, ze killers might vote for zem, thinking zat ve are making a mistake. Zis vould be good.
I vant to know vy Ja'ayem now seems so sure zat Hophtrig und Choey should not be evicted - since zat group seems so likely to have ze sympathiser in it. How vould ve expect ze sympathiser to vote on ze second day, except to try to shield a known ally? Vat else is ze sympathiser for, except to be a vote on ze side of ze Possessed?
[ 26. March 2014, 19:39: Message edited by: Eliab ]
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto is not seeing Ios nor Hophtrig being bad just now. But also worried he could be deceived. FBC tells Otto to get raisins, but Otto misunderstood, now corrected: the FBC meant reasons. Otto goes through the bus checking to see if anyone brought raisins. Nothing so far....
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Otto, just for you.
(And the FBC, of course.)
[ 26. March 2014, 20:26: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ja'ayem, why did you increase the nominations to four? And why did you choose me?
For example, if you're Innocent, did you really think I look more Guilty than any of Choey, Hophtrig, Otto, Codine, or Eliabulon? Please explain. Or do you really think all of Otto, Codine, Eliabulon and Ios look more Guilty than either of Hophtrig or Choey... but Otto, Codine, Eliabulon and Ios all look equally Guilty? Did you just throw a dart to pick one of us four?
Still supposing you're Innocent, did you worry at all about splitting the vote with four nominations when there are so few of the Innocent left to carry the day? Did you just want another nominee to consider before we vote, because if we assume you're Innocent, then from your point of view we only had two Possibly Guilty nominees before you made your nomination, and now we have (from your assumed Innocent point of view) three Possibly Guilty nominees to debate? Something else?
Still supposing you're Innocent, are you so hurt at being in the suspected Group of Beings Who Didn't Vote For Reppik Tew, that you're projecting your own knowledge of your own motives -- that is, you didn't know Reppik was guilty -- onto Choey and Hophtrig, and figuring they must also be Innocent also voting with the same motives as you, so however unlikely it seems, that leaves Otto, Codine, Eliabulon and Ios as necessarily containing the Guilty three?
Still supposing you're Innocent -- console yourself for missing Reppik's guilt. Why, by your lights either you've caught the Guilty Otto and you can point to your early knowledge of his Guilt in the Reppik Tew vote, or Otto will be Innocent and you can point to your skill in fingering the Guilty Trio of the Monstrously Subtle And Devious Ios, Codine, and Eliabulon.
I'm throwing out all these ideas so you can choose from them, or say "no, not really any of them" to avoid a tiresome round of you giving explanations, and us pointing out problems or wierd things in your logic, and then you delaying or evading giving an answer.
I've been trying really really hard to understand Choey's point of view if she's Innocent, when her way of thinking is apparently light-years away from my way of thinking, and I Just Can't Take one more being (that would be You, Ja'ayem) whose logic seems utterly .... well, let's say I can't see any logic in it.
[ETA "ulon"]
[ 26. March 2014, 21:18: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ja'ayem, assuming you're Innocent, and that you're simply not paying attention to the same things I pay attention to (and I'm sure you spot things that I miss, so it's not like I'm God's Gift To Reasoning), but assuming all that, consider:
Suppose all Three Remaining Guilties are in the group of four still-uncleared suspects that voted for Reppik.
Let's say for the sake of being specific, that the Guilty parties were Reppik, Codine, Eliabulon and Ios. That means that after three people had NOT voted for Reppik, and made an excellent cover for NOT sacrificing Reppik, who as has been pointed out, as the Unreadable Possessed would be the one we would NOT want to sacrifice, we instead chose to sacrifice Reppik. (I suppose that would provide the perfect cover for the rest of us for the rest of the Bus Tour... hmmmmmmm.)
Or let's say Otto is in the Guilty Group. Let's say it's Reppik, Otto, Eliabulon and Ios. That puts more pressure on the Guilty Parties, because Otto has been voted for early on. But it would still be pretty easy for a few to vote for Hophtrig, and a few to split their votes between Otto and Reppik, and lo and behold, the tide might shift behind Hophtrig. And if Innocent (in your theory) Hophtrig gets lynched, oh, it will be oh-so-easy to point to Choey who voted so quickly and with little justification against Hophtrig. "Oh, Choey must be Guilty!" everyone would say. And we would have easily accomplished the lynching of a second Innocent person.
So you think we ignored two handed-to-us-on-a-platter lynchings of Innocent People and instead decided, so early in the game, to sacrifice our Unreadable Possessed?
Well, if you think we are Guilty, and that devious and brazen plan is really the most likely explanation as opposed to any other explanation that would suggest other Beings in the Guilty group -- for example, an explanation that suggests that the Guilty might have SPLIT THEIR VOTES, perhaps in the hope of not having to sacrifice Reppik, or some other explanation...
If that's what you really think, if you've thought about it at all, then I have to say Thank You. That is an incredible compliment.
I don't know if I'd be brave enough to carry out such a plot. (I've just proved, perhaps to my detriment, that I'm devious enough to think of such a plot.)
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
(Ah, heck, I've just revealed an idea for a devious and brazen plan. So if I ever turn to a life of Crime, I'll need to think up a different devious and brazen plan. Rats.)
[ 26. March 2014, 21:45: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
So here's how my remaining pool of suspects is. You'll see (sorry, Grafinn), that I've popped Eliabulon back in.
Choey, Ja'ayem: Their logic seems contorted to me. Their evasions seem strange to me. But maybe I am misjudging one, the other, or both, and it's just that they think really differently than I do, or they're not obsessed with a certain kind of logic the way I am, or any of all sorts of open-minded explanations for why one, the other, or both are Innocent.
Hophtrig, Otto: They have constructed brilliant personas for this tour that makes it very difficult for me to suspect them. Hophtrig is so friendly and nice. Otto is so terrified and unsure, you just want to hug him just to reassure him. They seldom say very much in the way of analysis at all. I think I've touched on this before -- maybe they're Innocent, and they're just not Obsessed Verbal Beings like me, or Eliabulon, or Zapaterietxe, or John The Less. (Any Obsessed Verbal Beings whom I have overlooked, please add yourselves to the list.) But their personas are very good ones for Guilties to hide behind because the persona allows them to talk a lot (thus not being suspected for saying very little), but actually to say very little.
Codine, Eliabulon: these two are just so smooth that I don't know if I'll ever ever ever be able to catch them, if they're Guilty. I think they must have some intuitive affinity at an incredibly high level for knowing exactly what my weaknesses are, and they exploit those weaknesses so smoothly that I can gain no traction at all in thinking them Guilty, if I make the mistake of reading any of their words. But their words are so well-considered and insightful (for me, at least) that it would be a terrible mistake to ignore what they say, just on the 4/15 (now 2/9?) chance that they're Guilty. (Or really 1/9, or is it 1/18? because they're probably not both Guilty.) And God Have Mercy On Us All if they are both Guilty. We might as well just walk out the airlock en masse (translation: in mass) right now.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
Nominations:
Cho Bacca Loriette (Banner Lady) nominated by Zapaterietxe
Hophtrig (Alban) nominated by Cho Bacca Loriette.
Ja'ayem (Jay-Emm) nominated by John the Less.
Ios (Autenrieth Road) nominated by Ja'ayem.
And of course No Lynching.
Votes by Friday evening please. Five votes needed to lynch.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I'm hoping for lots of discussion on our four nominees before Bus Passengers cast their votes. I'm just going to include myself in the count of nominees for the sake of simplicity here, not that I need any discussion about me, except that I really am curious to know what Ja'ayem will give as his reasons for nominating me. Bets are now being taken as to exactly how much Ja'ayem will evade saying anything about said reasons.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
{OoC}
Could someone in the UK timezone make a post stating what time it is there when you make the post?
I'm having a difficult time correlating Bus Time (i.e. the 8 a.m./8 p.m. deadlines) with the time displayed to me on the posts. Normally I could do this using other sources of information, but as I've noted before, I'm having an uncharacteristically difficult time with numbers on this Bus Tour.
Thanks.
{/OoC}
[ 26. March 2014, 22:20: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto is now considering with the rather tasty raisins as his thinking snack. Ios and Hophtrig seem to be friends, and Cho Bacca had seemed nice. So is Cho bacca nominated by a Mean One? Is Ios nominated by a Mean One too? Maybe Hophtrig is nominated by a scared Good One? Does this leave Ja'ayem as a bad one for nominating Ios?
But Otto cannot be sure. Maybe the FBC and Otto are misguided and the Mean Ones and Good Ones are actually the other others, so that if Otto thinks that some is friend he is wrong and the friend is really enemy. Otto has been doing eny meny miney mo on his three legs, and then also included the FBC which is not a leg, but he needed 4 things to represent 4 nominationals, but then where do you start for the eny meny miney mo? Getting a different answer each time. So that's not good. Otto thinks he better eat some more raisins, drink some more out that Hophtrig bottle which never runs out and seems agreeable and gives Otto a warm glow like the love of friends even if it is some other worldly ale and even if some of the friends are wicked.
[ 26. March 2014, 22:26: Message edited by: no prophet ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Otto, is the FBC long enough to wrap around both of us? I feel pretty much exactly the same as you. But look what I just found out: if you're playing eeny meeny miney mo on your three legs, the result comes out exactly the same whether you use the short version:
Eeny, meeny, miney, mo,
Catch a tiger by the toe.
If he hollers let him go,
Eeny, meeny, miney, mo.
or if you extend it to the long version by adding:
My mother says you are O, U, T, OUT!
I'm considering which of the other Bus Passengers will not be able to help themselves and will be driven to check my Eeny Meeny Miney Mo result.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Oh, sorry, I missed that you're using the FBC to make four. That makes a much less pretty Eeny Meeny Miney Mo result. But I understand that you need to look at all four.
Oooh, raisins! Where did those come from?
[ 26. March 2014, 22:35: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
{OoC}
Here, we ar 13 hours ahead of GMT, 'tis currently quarter past one in the afternoon. So quarter past midnight in the UK.
{/OoC}
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
{OoC}Thanks{/OoC}
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by no prophet:
Ios and Hophtrig seem to be friends, and Cho Bacca had seemed nice. So is Cho bacca nominated by a Mean One? Is Ios nominated by a Mean One too? Maybe Hophtrig is nominated by a scared Good One? Does this leave Ja'ayem as a bad one for nominating Ios?
But Otto cannot be sure.
Otto, for ze love of your deity of choice, vill you please give us some actual reason for vy you think people are guilty or innocent und not just zat zey seem nice or mean?
None of us are sure. Und if being sure vas a guarantee of being right, zen ven Joostein made ze false claim to be ze doctor, many of us vould have been right. It is because I am not sure zat I ask you qvestions like vy you changed your mind about Hophtrig. Vat vas it about his conduct zat made you say he vas guilty? Und zen innocent? I vant to know vat you think, und vat you vant me to think, because zat is data vith vich ve spot ze guilty. I do not vant you to say only vat you are sure about. Zat tells us nothing. Ze things ve are sure of, ze killers know as vell. I vant your guesses, your analysis, your judgement und your thoughts. Und, if you are guilty, I vant your evasions, your manipulations und your lies. Because if ve get zat from everyvun, ve vill find ze killers.
But ze time is short, und you have been impossible to draw out on any important point. Ve can afford neither dead veight, nor ze luxury of ejecting you on principle if you happen to be innocent. You have not been nominated today, so you speak vithout any more danger zan ve are all in. Vould you please, please, consider trying to help us solve zis before ve all die?
Grafinn Ekatarina unhooks her Megamink pelisse, hangs it up against the hard plasteel shell of the bus, and then punches the wall extremely hard. She breathes deeply, as she settles back into her customary calm.
[ 27. March 2014, 00:28: Message edited by: Eliab ]
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
The FBC has feathers and hugs to spare! Come on and eat some raisins with us. The bottle stands by you as well!
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
I am inclined to vote for Ja'ayem of ze current nominees. I think zat he is about as suspicious as Choey, by any absolute measure, but I think he is also ze better at not looking suspicious, vereas she vould, I think, look slightly guilty even if innocent. Ze vay he is trying to steer accusations avay from not just himself (vich I understand) but also ze ozers in ze group most likely to contain at least ze sympathiser, is difficult to explain if he is innocent.
Ios or Hophtrig vould not be my choices of zis group. Hophtrig I think innocent, still, though I have not stopped looking for reasons to doubt anyvun. I vill hate myself for all of ze afterlife if Ios fools me, because I know zat she is cunning. But my vorry about being fooled does not make her guilty, und I have little positive reason to distrust her.
I am also vorried about splitting ze innocent vote. I vould like some indication of how ze people I know are innocent mean to vote. Vile I am not committing myself to do anything zat I judge to be wrong, I think it unlikely zat I vould vote against zeir choice of any nominee, if zey agree (because, if zey agree, ve probably cannot evict anyvun ozer zan zeir choice. If zey are right, ve must support zem, but if zey are wrong, ze killers vill).
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
I am inclined to vote for Ja'ayem of ze current nominees. I think zat he is about as suspicious as Choey, by any absolute measure, but I think he is also ze better at not looking suspicious, vereas she vould, I think, look slightly guilty even if innocent. Ze vay he is trying to steer accusations avay from not just himself (vich I understand) but also ze ozers in ze group most likely to contain at least ze sympathiser, is difficult to explain if he is innocent.
Ios or Hophtrig vould not be my choices of zis group. Hophtrig I think innocent, still, though I have not stopped looking for reasons to doubt anyvun. I vill hate myself for all of ze afterlife if Ios fools me, because I know zat she is cunning. But my vorry about being fooled does not make her guilty, und I have little positive reason to distrust her.
I am also vorried about splitting ze innocent vote. I vould like some indication of how ze people I know are innocent mean to vote. Vile I am not committing myself to do anything zat I judge to be wrong, I think it unlikely zat I vould vote against zeir choice of any nominee, if zey agree (because, if zey agree, ve probably cannot evict anyvun ozer zan zeir choice. If zey are right, ve must support zem, but if zey are wrong, ze killers vill).
This is pretty much how I feel about it. I can't get comfortable with voting for Choey this time; I don't think Zapa is necessarily wrong, but I am just not entirely convinced of his rightness.
Ja'ayem, on the other hand, has been giving me pause for a little while now. Contrary to his belief, my nomination has nothing to do with his voting record -- as my note on that is currently 700 miles away from me -- but on several other, small things I've picked up over the course of the Dimthing day.
I find myself in much the same place now as I was when all this started -- we have several good suspects, but choosing one is difficult at best. Subjective feeling only goes so far.
His nomination of Ios gives me pause. I believe she has been thoroughly cleared, and by his nomination he is stating that he thinks she is guilty. Yet even in his nomination he says nothing. (Well, I said nothing when I nominated him, but at least I acknowledged that fact; I'm now doing what I wanted to do at the time of nomination.)
Another flag for me is his seeming inability to remember who the heck it is he's talking about from one sentence to the next -- sometimes it seems he forgets between words. This leads to rambling posts that make no sense. While I can think of a dozen different, legitimate reasons for this, when I asked about it I got ignored. What gives me pause is the fact that doing this means he looks like he's trying to help, but actually he isn't helping at all. Even his explanations need to be explained. I freely admit this isn't much of a reason to suspect him, but it's one small thing among others that helps to add up to "possibly guilty".
I want to do a bit more research before I finish my case on Ja'ayem. Since no one is in a hurry to vote, I think I have a bit of time. I just wanted to respond to this statement.
I don't necessarily think bloc voting is a good thing this time, since it gives us nothing to obsess over or analyze. Too much cover for Possessed voting. Yet I still think that voting along with others who are trusted (or at least assumed as far as possible) to be innocent is a good idea, in that it helps us keep from splitting the vote and not lynching anyone. How to separate those two concerns I cannot say.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Grafinn Ekaterina Eliabulon:
I vill hate myself for all of ze afterlife if Ios fools me, because I know zat she is cunning. But my vorry about being fooled does not make her guilty, und I have little positive reason to distrust her.
Odd, thinks Ios. The Grafinn appears to be reading my mind, but she has switched all occurrences of "Eliabulon" for "Ios". And not only that, I appear to be reading the Grafinn's mind. How very strange. Ios hums serenely to herself while she brings out the holovideo she's been recording in the Hophtrig Hidey Hole:
Do cats eat bats? Do bats eat cats? . (This is what she's humming, not the name of the holovideo.)
There are all of a sudden so many fewer unanswered questions on the Dimthing Broken Bus than there had been earlier that day, when she'd taken a break from playing Real Lyfe and been so greatly amused to find herself nominated.
[ 27. March 2014, 02:07: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
There are all of a sudden so many fewer unanswered questions on the Dimthing Broken Bus than there had been earlier that day, when she'd taken a break from playing Real Lyfe and been so greatly amused to find herself nominated.
Like what? Because I'm pretty certain I found them...
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
John, I perhaps misspoke. There is one fewer unanswered question. Here, wait a sec while I hook up this holovideo player.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ios switches on the holovideo and projects it on the now-fixed back wall of the bus (68 screws replaced, only 7 more screws lost). "I've made a little story about myself and a Quest I've been on. Innocent Beings, gather round."
The holovideo begins:
Ios has been doing a little light reading about Caribbean nations, and although she has dutifully believed her six impossible things before breakfast, she absolutely cannot believe, simply finds it completely impossible to believe, finds beyond the realm of belief with a clarity that she has never felt before while on Bus Tours, let alone on the Dimthing Bus Tour, that even such a distant relative of Clan Jay-Emm as the ever-present, ever-apparently-helpful, always-at-least-slightly-befuddled-when-you-examine-what-he's-saying Ja'ayem is this spectacularly bad at logic:
quote:
Originally posted by Ja'ayem:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliabulon:
Ve have a group of three (Choey, Ja’ayem und Hophtrig) vich is overvelming likely to contain ze sympathiser, und qvite likely to have a killer as vell. Vun enemy death puts us out of immediate danger of losing after two mistakes, two likely means victory. If ve play ze odds, zis is vere ve focus.
But if the group contains only one baddie their's a 33% chance of us lynching two innocents and losing the game directly, and even if us innocents get lucky, and find one first time then we still have to find who it's accomplices are. We need to focus on one of the other groups where at least one, quite likely two and possibly all three of the mafia must be.
When Eliabulon points out that Ja-ayem is wrong about the probabilities, Ja'ayem ignores her. When Ios points out that Ja'ayem is wrong about the probabilities, Ja'ayem ignores her. When Ios points out that Ja'ayem has apparently not taken the next step and considered that his position (which now seems to be veering towards ALL the Guilties are in the group of four (Ott, Cod, Eli, Ios)) and his nomination of Ios result in ludicrous combinations for the Guilty actions, well, Ios doesn't know for sure yet, but she expects to be ignored.
Ja'ayem has said one thing that is almost completely true:
quote:
Originally posted by Ja'ayem:
even if us innocents get lucky, and find one first time then we still have to find who it's accomplices are.
Ios writes a little note to Ja'ayem, although she expects it to be ignored:
Your relatives who travel in Caribbean nations instead of having drawn the short straw of a Dimthing Broken Bus Tour, would surely have taken this the next step further and realized that this applies whether the Innocents succeed at finding a Guilty in the group of three, as E suggests, or success at finding a Guilty in the group of four, as you suggest. So it's not quite the devastating argument against looking in the group of three as you try to make it be.
Ios, being a generous being, decides to fix that for Ja'ayem:
quote:
even if the innocents get lucky, and find one first time then they still have to find who it's accomplices are.
There, that's so much better.
Ja'ayem has been terribly, terribly, terribly unlucky. Ios thinks Ja'ayem chose to nominate her because Ios had been so convinced by Ja'ayem's first-past-the-post posting at the beginning of Day One, and had never wavered from that. Ja-ayem perhaps was prepared for a nominated Ios to investigate him carefully, but perhaps figured she was a good target who wouldn't counter-suspect him in the end, because poor Ios is always so unsure of herself, and she'd always rather think someone's innocent, and she's willing to make so many allowances for beings who think differently from her (exemplars: Joostein the Innocent, Choey the Still Open Question), and in all her ditherings she has never seriously questioned her belief that Ja'ayem's first post after the bus accident could be anything but Innocent.
Poor Ja'ayem, he hasn't counted on the fact that Ios has been expecting a last-minute nomination by a Guilty party to take the heat off Guilty nominees. So when Ja'ayem came swooping in with half an hour to go for nominations, and nominated not someone that Ios might suspect was Innocent but she couldn't quite be sure and so she'd have a hard time focusing -- no, Ja'ayem nominated someone whom Ios knows with the force of a thousand incandescent suns is Innocent: herself.
So Ios begins thinking about Ja'ayem. And Ios is not distracted by having to consider two unknowns: Ja'ayem, and whatever unknown candidate would have been SO MUCH BETTER for Ja'ayem to have nominated. No, Ios has certainty on one side of that equation. And not only that, the Dimthing Bus Passengers, for whatever reason that Ios doesn't quite have the self-knowledge to understand, have generally not been suspecting Ios. So nominating Ios is bizarre.
So Ios gets curious: what occupation is generally held by members of Clan Jay-Emm, where it doesn't matter if your reasoning is so fuzzy? She's quite puzzled, and wants to be very fair to Clan Jay-Emm and give them every benefit of the doubt that they just think differently than she does. Unfortunately, Clan Jay-Emm do not broadcast their occupations. So then Ios decides to do a little light reading about Caribbean nations. And clarity, that clarity that cuts through all the Bus Tour's barrage of words and arguments and reasoning and puzzling to which she has so amply contributed, contributed while twisting and turning and puzzling and hoping for clarity: that clarity strikes.
There are still puzzles to solve. As Ja'ayem has said so truly, we need to find it's accomplices. But that can wait until tomorrow, when we will have more information. Tomorrow we will know who says what today and tonight, who votes to lynch whom, and who is killed overnight (or else who the Doctor protected, so we know who was targeted -- at least, Ios thinks that's the right strategy in the case of Medical Overnight Success at this late stage, but she's open to correction).
Today, the only thing that keeps Ios from voting immediately is that principles tell her that this all needs to be discussed among the Innocents, and opportunies given for the Guilty to create more rope for their own eventual noose, and she has furthermore just had a Spectacular Win by following her principles about Following Proper Procedure (not for nothing are Clan A. Road Episcopalians) in her Real Lyfe challenge of ... well, the challenge name is quite long, but for a shortcut we might call it All Heck Unexpectedly Breaks Loose When Trying To Upgrade The Clients That Use The Server Software That Ios Upgraded Last Night But It Is Eventually Solved Due To The Heroic Intervention Of Ios. Hmmm, that's still rather long, isn't it? Actually it was a multiplayer challenge, and all players contributed, but Ios contributed the final capstone success that ended the 7 1/2 hour cascade of problems, and Ios' taking time to follow procedures meant that it was not just tentatively solved leaving lurking nightmares, but definitively solved with a certainty equal to her current certainty about Guilty Ja'ayem.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
The holovideo fades to black. Ios continues humming serenely as she leafs through all 19 pages of Dimthing Bus Archives. She is reviewing all the amusing parts, the parts where Poor Guilty Ja'ayem twists and turns, trying to evade capture.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
See, this is why we're friends, Ios. I wanted to say all those things, but you said them so much better than I did. Something was bothering me, but I couldn't quite pin it down. What you've said makes perfect sense.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Aw, thanks, John.
I just discovered that I need to wear sunglasses while I reread these archives, because I just reread this:
quote:
Originally posted by Ja'ayem The Unlucky Nominator:
Reppik pointed out my confusion over the mafia numbers. While I suppose that's a reason to hate, it would be a bit petty.
It was pointed out that Zapaterietxe had pointed this out, not Reppik. Ja'ayem acknowledged this and had some coverup explanation for his confusion. But what if Ja'ayem was correct: Reppik did point out his confusion... privately.
Oh, here's a pair of sunglasses that will protect my eyes from the glare of these explosions of clarity as I read
. I think there's enough for everyone; you'll find them at the lower left while you're composing your thoughts.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Ios hums serenely to herself while she brings out the holovideo she's been recording in the Hophtrig Hidey Hole:
Do cats eat bats? Do bats eat cats? . (This is what she's humming, not the name of the holovideo.)
Otto wonders about the bats too. And he hopes the bat he don't come out and fly in he face tonight. And he want to know how to put wings on the FBC or if Ios has a cat, on that.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig is simple and likes simple things.
Hophtrig trusts Ios, nobody's told Hophtrig why Hophtrig shouldn't.
Hophtrig doesn't understand the thinking of someone who wants Ios off.
Hophtrig kind of understands the thinking of Ios and Choey.
Hophtrig's not going to vote Hophtrig off.
This doesn't leave Hophtrig feeling like he has a lot of deciding who to vote for to do. Unless he gets a lot more information.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
You know, nominating Ios was reason enough to think Ja'ayem was guiltier than a guilty thing that was guilty (you know, like Choey). But seriously. Reppik at least had the decency to nominate someone who looked suspicious. Nominating a near-certain innocent? Sheesh.
Good work with the rest, Ios. I'll wait to watch the rap sheet grow before voting, but…
(No, I haven't forgotten about Choey. I still want my answers. But this…wow. What chutzpa.)
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Ios ... has never felt ... Ja'ayem is this spectacularly bad at logic:
quote:
Originally posted by Ja'ayem:
But if the group contains only one baddie their's a 33% chance of us lynching two innocents and losing the game directly, and even if us innocents get lucky, and find one first time then we still have to find who it's accomplices are. We need to focus on one of the other groups where at least one, quite likely two and possibly all three of the mafia must be.
quote:
Zose numbers are wrong.
If a group of three has vun guilty member, zere is a 33.33% chance of us guessing right first time (assuming zere is [no] reason to suspect vun more zan anozer). Zere is a 66.67% chance of getting ze killer on ze first or second pick. If zere are two killers, zen ze combined probabilities after two picks are 33.33% of getting zem both, und 66.67 of only vun.
Seems, I was right to leave the post unanswered I was a bit worried there was a chance I'd picked the innocent...but now you have confirmed my suspicions.
33% chance of not getting a killer in 2 picks is totally consistent with a 66% chance of getting a killer in 2 picks. They are inverse statements.
Anyone paying attention would have realized that.
I have to believe Zappa has just been criminally careless, but you are clearly just criminal and now we have you we'll get your associate the Graffin.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
Seems, I was right to leave the post unanswered I was a bit worried there was a chance I'd picked the innocent...but now you have confirmed my suspicions.
33% chance of not getting a killer in 2 picks is totally consistent with a 66% chance of getting a killer in 2 picks. They are inverse statements.
I see vat you mean. I had taken "losing directly" to mean "losing because of zis vote, losing today", but it seems zat you did not mean zat.
If zere is vun guilty person in a group of three, und two die, ve agree zat, vith nothing to choose between zem, after ze two deaths ze chance of ze guilty person surviving is vun third, ja?
Und ze same, if zere is vun innocent person (und two guilty), ze chance of ze vun innocent surviving in zat case must also be vun third? Und zerefore ze chance of killing both guilty vuns (to leave ze innocent) is vun third, vith ze ozer two thirds of ze time, vun guilty und vun innocent die, to leave a guilty survivor?
If ze group is all guilty, or all innocent, zen ze chance of guilty deaths is either vun or zero, obviously.
Are ve agreed zat ve both mean zis?
My reasoning, apart from any individual grounds for suspicion, is zat zere are now two groups of three. Vun group voted to kill Reppik, vun did not. Ze ozer three passengers are innocent, so not a consideration (zis is my reasoning - und is based on ze knowledge of my innocence vich I have, although you vill not have ze same certainty).
If ve assume zat ze killers had no tendency to vote to save Reppik (a unsafe assumption, but I vill allow it for argument), und zat ze innocents had no tendency to vote to evict him (again, qvestionable, but less so), I vould still argue zat ze sympathiser is highly likely to vote to save him. Ze sympathiser's life is simply vorth less to ze Possessed zan a killer's. Ze sympathiser cannot collude or plan, und cannot vin on zeir own, because zey cannot kill at night. Ze sympathiser has no allies who know to defend zem vith votes or arguments, und zey are at risk of being murdered by zeir own side in error.
Ven ze sympathiser sees Reppik accused by somevun zey know is innocent, zey know zat zis is not a sacrifice ploy. So vy vould zey not oppose? Only if it vere so obviously wrong to oppose zat ze sympathiser vould be risking zeir life for no gain, vich vas not ze case here. If ze sympathiser did not vote for Reppik, ze four who did not vere a combination of killers (in vich case, vy not follow zeir lead) or innocents (und zerefore a crowd to hide in).
So my reasoning is zat even if I cannot infer anything about any ozer vote, ze sympathiser is extremely likely to have voted to save Reppik, making group (A) in all probability ze sympathiser plus two zat are, at vorst random, und as likely to be guilty as ze ozer group, und group (B) vich, at best, are all random. If ve allow even a slight chance zat ze guilty are less likely to vote for vun of zeir own zan ze innocent, voting to evict vun from group (A) is clearly ze right move.
Zat you are shielding yourself is not suspicious, but zat you try to shield both of ze ozers who voted vith you, ven, if innocent, you cannot knw zat zey are not enemies und have reason to think zey might be, is ze thing I cannot explain. If you can explain it better, zen do so.
[ 27. March 2014, 08:34: Message edited by: Eliab ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Okay. Enough hemming and hawing around. Someone has to go first, so I may as well. I vote for Ja'ayem.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
I vould vote ze same vay, but having asked Ja'ayem for his explanation, it vould only be polite to vait to see if I am given vun.
I take ze point you made earlier about a block vote telling us less zan individual reasoning, but it is still true zat to make ze right decision, at least vithout our enemies' cooperation, requires a high degree of accord between ze innocent.
Zerefore I vould ask everyvun to say, ven voting, vat zere reasoning is, if zey have not said so in detail already. If zey are voting for somevun who vould not be zeir first choice if zey could make ze decision alone, zen zey should say that in particular.
Und Otto - if you vish to contribute to discussions aimed at keeping us all alive at any point in ze immediate future, zat vould be great. Ozervise, I am hoping zat ze raisins vill choke you.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Ios ... has never felt ... Ja'ayem is this spectacularly bad at logic:
quote:
Originally posted by Ja'ayem:
But if the group contains only one baddie their's a 33% chance of us lynching two innocents and losing the game directly, and even if us innocents get lucky, and find one first time then we still have to find who it's accomplices are. We need to focus on one of the other groups where at least one, quite likely two and possibly all three of the mafia must be.
quote:
Zose numbers are wrong.
If a group of three has vun guilty member, zere is a 33.33% chance of us guessing right first time (assuming zere is [no] reason to suspect vun more zan anozer). Zere is a 66.67% chance of getting ze killer on ze first or second pick. If zere are two killers, zen ze combined probabilities after two picks are 33.33% of getting zem both, und 66.67 of only vun.
Seems, I was right to leave the post unanswered I was a bit worried there was a chance I'd picked the innocent...but now you have confirmed my suspicions.
33% chance of not getting a killer in 2 picks is totally consistent with a 66% chance of getting a killer in 2 picks. They are inverse statements.
Anyone paying attention would have realized that.
I have to believe Zappa has just been criminally careless, but you are clearly just criminal and now we have you we'll get your associate the Graffin.
Ok, I admit that I have been struggling with numbers on this Bus Tour. And, yes, that is uncharacteristic of the members of Clan A.Road. I thought the Grafinn was making a different point. It's still bizarre that you didn't engage with the Grafinn at least to say "that's the same point I was making" or ... well, anything. An Innocent would engage. And still you ignore my point that I had made about the probabilities. An Innocent member of a normally mathematically astute Clan would have said, "Wait, what?! Let me rethink things" or "Wait, what?! I'm not sure I see your point" or ... well, just anything instead of abandoning the numerical argument without a peep and moving on to some other argument.
But it doesn't really matter, because, OMG, you have just done what I expected the Guilty to do when I was left alive last night: you are trying to make a case to link me and the Grafinn as two of the Guilty parties.
And also, as I have expected, you have not uttered a peep about why you chose me to nominate.
Early on this Bus Tour you made a post about some sophisticated strategies that the Detectives might follow in order to ensure not wasting an investigation. You also made a post (I'll post links later; I can't find them right now) about things we'd like to do with respect to the Detectives and their information on the order of "here are three good things, we can only ensure two". Both of these posts showed careful logical thinking involving thinking through a statement and its consequences. And I'm to believe that somehow you're Innocent, but have somehow unaccountably lost all ability to spontaneously follow up your own stated theories without the slightest attempt to look at any of the logical consequences of what you're saying? Because you haven't engaged with the slightest bit of self-awareness or depth about any of what you've posted since Daisy's death.
The obvious explanation: it was easy to be convincingly Innocent early on, when there were lots of non-threatening topics to post about, and lots of possible theories of Guilt to muse about. As the net has tightened, and the kinds of topics we need to discuss has narrowed, your logic has gotten worse and worse. That says one thing: guilty, guilty, guilty, guilty, guilty.
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
Yes Graffin to the first part. Your numbers are aiui accurate. It's the false impression you presented that makes you seem suspicious.
Also whichever of you is innocent (actually in this case both) if the premise is true and you do funds a mafia do you really think the mafia won't use it as an excuse to polish us all off.
RegardingThe second ???
Zappa's presenting of ios as a known innocent also puzzles me. As does graffins acceptance of it. If it wasn't that we almost sure zappa has his.role id think we'd found 3. unless g was expecting us to take his innocence on faith. There are in 4 his group.(ios, otto, codeine, graffin).
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Grrrrrr. Sitting around twiddling my thumbs being polite waiting for Ja'ayem's evasive non-response. Eliabulon, how long should we wait? Because there is a little task that needs doing. It is: Jump out the airlock door, run over to our engine, bring it back. It requires very little logic. Therefore I know the perfect candidate for it. For reasons already stated.
Ios decides to play a round of Real Lyfe, on the "Hosting Data Warehousing Demonstration, Probably Tied Up Until After Lunch But Perhaps I Can Sneak Out To The Bathroom And Check And See If It's Time To Vote For You-Know-Who Yet" challenge.
[Whoaaaa, Nelly! The Accused Party has appeared! How wonderful. I can entertain myself considering his latest evasion. I.e.: cross-posted]
[ 27. March 2014, 11:33: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ja'ayem, you're here. And trying to seem like you're engaging. But still not giving any reasons. Please propose a set of four Guilties that includes me, Eliabulon, and Reppik, and suggest a theory about the Reppik Tew vote.
[ 27. March 2014, 11:37: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
I think Ios is innocent because of the way she reacted to Joostein's crazy bomb. I am more certain of her than anyone else alive at the moment.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Aw, gee shucks, John
. Stubs toe in ground.
Ja'ayem, please also say something, anything, about why you chose me to nominate out of your group of four. I'm genuinely curious, about both your real reason (which of course I don't expect to hear until we finish this Bus Tour and finally get to see the Blue Sapphire Falls), and also the reason you've prepared for public consumption. You did remember that you'd need a reason for public consumption when you were nominating me, didn't you?
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
I nominate Ja'ayem. Unfortunately I have no cleverly convincing argument at the moment because I'm on the wrong device. The one that has my notes is dead at the moment. I will try again later.
Yes, I'm noting a lot of attention being focused on the non-Reppik voters. They were trying to use it against Lesley, then managed it against Joostein. Some of us didn't know he was guilty.
It looks to me like someone's got something to gain, I don't know which is innocent out of Otto, Ios, Codeine, Eliab (I'm assuming you(John) and Zappa are innocent) and so I nominate Ios and hope whichever of you four is the innocent one support me (and if I have had the bad luck to nominate the innocent, sorry).
missing one time, careless, twice suspicious, you've now "missed" 3. Your slipping ios. yours truly kettle.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Codine steps forward out of some door that didn't seem to be there before. "In case I am out serving my master when the voting begins in, and end up voting later than I like, I will share my thoughts about the upcoming vote:*
As content to trust Ios than I am anyone besides John and Zapa, so not voting for her.
Not really suspicious of Hophtrig, so I see no reason to vote for him today
Somewhat suspicious of Chooey, and I wish she'd clearly answer Zapa's questions, but
Much more suspicious of Ja'ayem than any of the others. So I will be voting for him unless something very unexpected happens.
*OOC: Read, I'm a bit confused about when voting opens--or is it that voting is open, but no one's voted yet.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
IRL, Otto's fictitious character 'no prophet' is going to get an MRI scan this morning and hopes he doesn't wait forever because they like forever waits with that magic gadget. But at least it doesn't hurt. He doesn't think he will be turned Soylent Green even if the line-up reminds him of that. The time zone is -6 GMT so 11 a.m. is the start of the English evening.... Will be reading after that happens.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
Zappa's presenting of ios as a known innocent also puzzles me. As does graffins acceptance of it.
Ven did I say zis? Ios is not a confirmed innocent on any analysis of mine. I think zere are people more suspicious zan she is, but no vun has yet proved to me zat she is certainly innocent.
quote:
unless g was expecting us to take his innocence on faith. There are in 4 his group.(ios, otto, codeine, graffin).
No, I vas setting out my thinking, und vy I thought ze reasoning vas sound. Zere is vun important fact - my innocence - of vich I am certain, but you are not, vich I rely on for my reasoning. I said zis expressly.
But in fact it does not matter. If ze only material difference between ze two groups is zat vun is more likely to have ze sympathiser (und I think it is at least as good as zat) zen a random choice from ze sympathiser's group has ze increased chance of hitting ze sympathiser, but if not, exactly ze same random chance of success as a selection from ze ozer group. Ze size of ze first group affects ze amount of ze increased chance, but ze size of ze second group does not change ze odds.
You can see zis like zis (a hypothetical illustration): Suppose vun ninety nine new passengers arrived on zis bus und thirty three vere Possessed, but zey had no sympathiser. Und suppose you know nothing of ze seven 'unknowns' (see - I include myself, because ze figures are easier if I do) already here except zat vun is ze sympathiser und two are Possessed. Who do you evict? Vun of ze seven. You might get ze sympathiser (vun in seven), but if you do not, you still have exactly ze same vun third chance zat you vould get by picking a newcomer. ve could make ze new group bigger or smaller, und, so long as ze proportions are ze same, ze maths does not change.
Back to ze real bus: I am saying zat ze sympathiser is in ze group of three. If ve knew zat, und nothing else, ve should select from zat group. Zere is a vun third chance of ze sympathiser, but if not, ze same exact chance as a random choice from anyvere.
I do not suggest it for reasons of chance alone, as I am suspicious of you und Choey more zan ozers. I am particularly concerned, though, vy, if ve agree zat I am proposing something vich ON YOUR FIGURES is likely to have at least a two thirds chance of catching ze guilty, you see zat as a reason not to do it. Ve are close to both victory und defeat at zis point. Zose are not bad odds - und ze true odds are better because zat figure of yours assumes zat ze innocent vere MORE likely to vote to save a killer zan ze guilty vere.
If you had a scheme vith a better chance of success, I vould abandon mine und adopt yours, but I do not see zis.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Voting is open. John has already voted for Ja'ayem.
Whether Guilty or Innocent, Codine, you are a very clever Being.
Ja'ayem, we're having auditions for someone to retrieve our engine. The role is Heroo Oof Dimthing. It's your turn to audition. Yes, yes, study the airlock door as much as you like before you go.
I vote for Ja'ayem
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
Voting is open. Nobody has voted yet.
Breaking news: x-posted with Autenrieth Road. Nobody other than Ios has voted yet. And John, which I would have missed if Ios hadn't pointed it out.
[ 27. March 2014, 12:19: Message edited by: Dafyd ]
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Codine bowed. "Thank you.
Then consider me to have voted for Ja'ayem for the reasons noted above.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
Okay. Enough hemming and hawing around. Someone has to go first, so I may as well. I vote for Ja'ayem.
HELLO!!! I voted this morning. Just in case: Ja'ayem.
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
Graffin, yes if it were a simple choice. But uh less you propose some far fetched case then the odds were much higher for 2 mafia in 4, let alone 3 in 4.
Now ios has all but announce his guilt in english. And (I hope) one if his comafia has outed%(though that may just be codeines mistake) whichever among yoi is innocent (you at least make good points, incomplete so I wonder) we need you.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
Now ios has all but announce his guilt in english.
Vould you explain vat you take to be an announcement of guilt? I do not see it. I can see Ios exploring a lot of hypotheses as her vay of analysing, some of zem more plausible zan ozers, but vat is it zat you think she has said zat only ze guilty vould say?
At zis stage, you need to be clearer zan zis to influence votes. I vould like you to take ze opportunity because ve cannot afford mistakes, but your recent comments have been lacking in clarity to ze point of incomprehensibility at times. Ze practice of vague comments vith much promised by vith no substance ven in danger tends to be a guilty vun (look at Reppik), und you need better reasons van zis. If you have zem, und are innocent, zen say so before it is too late.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
Zappa's presenting of ios as a known innocent also puzzles me. As does graffins acceptance of it.
Ven did I say zis? Ios is not a confirmed innocent on any analysis of mine. I think zere are people more suspicious zan she is, but no vun has yet proved to me zat she is certainly innocent.
I think you didn't jump on the "Ios looks guilty" bus fast enough for Ja'ayem's taste. Of course, to get on that bus, you have to get off this one first.
But, why do I think Ios is innocent? Why do I think this is a really dumb thing to have to answer, but, evidently, I do? It's easy: anyone can think out loud and investigate; they'll eventually slip up, we hope, but a nice, talkative smokescreen can be worked, especially if you engage in some class warfare and divisionstirring along the way. Ios doesn't just do this—she also corrects the bad reasoning of other beings, myself included. A good Possessed would let those all slide, let them go unnoticed, or even agree with them; why would she call attention to things we've said that would hurt her cause when she could easily—indeed, more easily—just let them slide by in silence?
Trying to work out who's innocent and who's Naughty by deduction looks good; taking the extra time to work out who missed something that could nail a Naughtything, an act that would be absolutely shooting one's cause in the proverbial foot-analogue, is something I just couldn't see any Possessed being ever doing.
Therefore, Ja'ayem, I'm voting for you.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig trusts Ios.
Hophtrig is good friends with Choey
Hophtrig is Hophtrig
Hophtrig votes for Ja'Ayem.
Sorry, Ja'ayem, but Ios has been talking clearly, plainly and cleverly, and Hophtrig doesn't want his friend Ios off the bus.
[ 27. March 2014, 16:47: Message edited by: Alban ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Hophtrig, would you like to put your vote in Bold so our intermittent tour guide will be able to spot it easily when he comes to count the votes?
And after that, can I offer you some of Otto's raisins? Otto can't eat raisins while he's all trussed up in that giant tube that popped out of his computer when he started to play Real Lyfe. We hope Otto comes out of the giant tube safe and happy and can come play with all the friends on the Dimthing Bus Tour. Who needs sapphire falls when you have such a spectacular and varied display of Human Nature on display?
Oops, I misread this label. It says the display is a display of Being Nature. Even better. Whatever it's called, I've never seen a more fascinating display.
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
Ja'ayem moved to vote, but as he saw his fate await the spirit that possessed him had vanished. Of course it was too late too accept mercy...and besides the spirit had enough control too shut him up and change the vote to Ja'ayem
(which is in case you missed it, an admission of guilt -(sym))
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto is pleased to announce that other than the peek-a-bum gown for his imaginary friend, there was no indignity. Nor indeed excessive waiting at the Magnetic Rumbly Imager. Loudness though. Very much loudness.
Otto is now considering with the help of the FBC the voting, which looks like the group is all heading in the same direction. Are they heading as a group because Goodies or Meanies have led them? Such thinking. Such ringalinging in Otto's head from Fake Lyfe experiences with the Rumbly Machine, as he waits to read it all and make a decision.
[ 27. March 2014, 17:08: Message edited by: no prophet ]
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Sorry, Ios.
Sometimes Hophtrig can be a little too quiet and reserved.
Ja'ayem
Raisins? Hophtrig loves raisins! Big hugs for everyone.
Even for you, Ja'ayem. Here, have a drink out of Hophtrig's magical bottle. I'll let you in on a secret, it doesn't keep itself filled, every time it starts looking empty, Hophtrig tops it up from all the bottles left in the minibar. Otto quite likes it, though.
Very glad Otto's imaginary friend is well and unscathed.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig finds this Interesting.
So Ja'ayem was the sympathiser? That means Ja'ayem knows who's naughty and nice. Ja'ayem's attack on Ios means she's probably nice, since he was naughty and wanted her off. Hophtrig would go so far as to put her on the same list as John (and maybe Zapa, too)
But what does it mean about the other nominees, Choey and Hophtrig, Hophtrig wonders? Are Choey and Hophtrig naughty, so Ja'ayem wanted Choey and Hophtrig to stay on, or are Choey and Hophtrig not as important as Ios, so Ja'ayem tried for her instead? That's quite a puzzle for Hophtrig.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ja'ayem:
Now ios has all but announce his guilt in english.
Surely not. If Ios had announced Ios' guilt in English, Ios would have announced her guilt. Indeed, the founder of Clan A. Road, A. herself, is -- well, as you see, a her.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
It is sad that Ja'ayem was Naughty, but good that he is Caught. Alas, I don't think he's going to survive his audition for Heroo Oof Dimthing.
The fact that he apparently says he was the Sympathizer and not outright Possessed has a silver lining: it removes a source of confusion as we continue hunting for Guilties. Now we know we're looking for two Possessed.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alban:
Are Choey and Hophtrig naughty, so Ja'ayem wanted Choey and Hophtrig to stay on, or are Choey and Hophtrig not as important as Ios, so Ja'ayem tried for her instead?
Since this seems to be Everyone's Been Let Out Of The Insane Asylum week, to the point where the Dimthing Bus Insanity Virus seems to have jumped hosts and infected Ios' Real Lyfe app as well... in EBLOOTIA week, the second option might be possible. On any normal bus tour, the first option would be the ONLY SANE CHOICE.
But what do I know about sanity?
Sorry, Hophtrig, yes that means I'm considering the possibility that you are Naughty, just as I'm considering everyone else. I'm still happy to have hugs though. Are there any raisins left?
And look, Otto has emerged safe and sound from the funny metal tube. Otto, we're glad you came out of the tube. Sorry, we seem to have eaten up all your raisins. Have something from Hophtrig's bottle. I'd offer you something from the minibar, but the stock is looking more depleted than I would have expected.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
What I mean is, a silver lining compared to the golden result we might have preferred, to catch a Possessed.
I have never been surer than a sure thing is sure when I made the discovery that convinced me he was Guilty.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig had heard about the existence of Eblootia week on Dimthing, this was one of the things he was going to teach the younglings about from this tour. Hophtrig's even vaguely suspicious of Hophtrig after that latest revalation.
Hophtrig would try to make some sort of argument about how most of the heat was not on Hophtrig, and Ja'ayem was probably trying to save his own endangered hide, but this is Eblootia week, and in hindsight Ja'ayem's actions looked more suicidal than self preserving.
We do have a few more raisins left at the very bottom of the container, Otto. Here you go, this container is a nice quiet cylinder, not a noisy one, don't be scared.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
That mention of a silver lining refers to the previous post where I mentioned silver lining. Yes, boys, girls, and others, I just managed to cross-post WITH MYSELF.
Oh, look, is this a crimson straitjacket someone has left under a seat? Could someone help tie me up in it? I think I'm going to lie down here in the Hophtrig Hidey Hole and shut the door. No, no, Hophtrig, Otto, and FBC, out you go. Take the minibar with you. And the raisin box. Maybe there are some more raisins hiding in it. Ios needs a nice quiet lie-down. Push the door shut on your way out. No, not ajar, all the way shut please. Come let me out when the world is less insane.
Ios stares at the ceiling. The walls of the HHH are white and padded and she feels right at home. The passengers in the bus aisle hear faint muttering coming from the HHH: "Cross posted with myself. Cross posted with myself. I'm not even going to ask 'how can things get more insane' because it's just asking for trouble."
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
I have raisins, dates, and a bottle of wine in my pack. Help yourselves.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Dates? Hophtrig will take 25th of April, please.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey votes for Ja'ayem too. If he is confirmed as guilty by Dimthing Bus Tours, then this should clear Otto.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Choey, a big hug.
Hophtrig is very sorry, but Hophtrig is silly, he doesn't understand why, if Ja'ayem is naughty, Otto must be good. Can you explain it in simple words so Hophtrig will get it?
Is it because Choey and Hophtrig must be naughty if Ja'ayem saved us as Ja'ayem did? Hophtrig doesn't like that argument very much.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
And just in case I am not here in the morning, we are now looking for two mafioso who either did not vote for Reppik Tew (Hophtrig and Choey) or voted late, after the decision had been sealed to evict him (Codine).
Codine and Hophtrig, I suggest you accept the repast offered by John. It may be your last meal.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
And just in case I am not here in the morning, we are now looking for two mafioso who either did not vote for Reppik Tew (Hophtrig and Choey) or voted late, after the decision had been sealed to evict him (Codine).
Codine smiled dryly. "There is a reason some of us are making a bit more effort than Ja'ayem did to find the killers--some of us are actually innocent. "
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Glad that the wicked Ja'ayem has been identified. Otto feels better, and what joy: there more raisins than ever, and more drinking bottles than ever. Dates? Liking dates too. Sort of like overgrown raisins. Like big big raisins with lots of yumminess. The FBC also is happily waving it's feathers around. Happy times with friendlies. Except there are more Meanies around. But for now, we eat and drink, and maybe even sing(?).
Otto wondering about the Hophtrig evidence. It is not seeming very strong, even if Otto was upset with Hophtrig at the start of the trip when Hophtrig was mad a Otto. Ios also seemed okay.... But back to eating and drinking and singing.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Yes, some of us are innocent. And while every one of the passengers left on this bus proclaim their innocence, words are cheap. I am simply looking at what your actions tell me.
If I was one of three possessed, and let's say our leader was nominated for eviction, that leader would probably instruct his fellow felons to vote either very early or very late. One voting early can possibly lead some innocents away, and split the vote. One voting late may be able to sway the vote at a critical time.
Hophtrig and Ja'ayem voted very early for Otto. It must have been alarming for them to have TWO mafioso nominated in that round. Codine voted last.
I rest my case on your actions, not on the avalanche of words that will try to deflect attention away from them .
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
If he is confirmed as guilty by Dimthing Bus Tours, then this should clear Otto.
Faintly from the HHH:
Proper Procedures say look again at everyone with a completely open mind.
Ios likes Proper Procedures. They make her feel safe and happy. Fortunately, she remembered to bring her DBA (Dimthing Bus Archives) into the HHH with her. Now, how to turn the pages while tied up in a straitjacket?
She has an idea, but she still wants to look at everything.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig voted consistently for Otto. Apart from the first round, where Hophtrig thought everyone should stay and this last round when Hophtrig stood back and Otto was not nominated. If Choey sees that the demise of Ja'ayem somehow clears Otto, Hophtrig would love to know, and to be shown where Hophtrig's big mistake was, so there's no chance of his continuing his folly tomorrow.
Hophtrig explained, from the beginning, his reasoning in nominating and voting for Otto. Please, Choey, if Hophtrig was wrong, tell Hophtrig more. Hophtrig does not like being wrong.
Hophtrig feels like Choey wants Hophtrig gone because Hophtrig attacked Otto. Hophtrig understands Choey wanting to protect her friend, but Hophtrig does not understand where Hophtrig went so wrong. Please, Choey, use your words or your explaniator to correct Hophtrig if he was mistaken, don't threaten Hophtrig.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
quote:
Originally posted by Ja'ayem The Unlucky Nominator:
Reppik pointed out my confusion over the mafia numbers. While I suppose that's a reason to hate, it would be a bit petty.
It was pointed out that Zapaterietxe had pointed this out, not Reppik. Ja'ayem acknowledged this and had some coverup explanation for his confusion. But what if Ja'ayem was correct: Reppik did point out his confusion... privately.
Aw, fooey. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. If Ja'ayem is the Sympathizer, then Reppik didn't point anything out to him privately, and the facts are presumably as Ja'ayem stated.
Wait a second, said the assembled Beings in the aisle (five Innocent, two Possessed, one Sympathizer waiting resignedly by the airlock door). How did she manage to look that up in the Recent Archives when she's all tied up in a straitjacket?
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
Zis is good news.
Ze vote is decided, but for ze record, as ze explanation I asked for turned out to be a confession of guilt:
Ja'ayem
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Hophtrig, why did you nominate Otto at the beginning? There was no reason was there? Otto nominated Hophtrig in retaliation, and then voted Repik. Because the nomination of Hophtrig was retaliation only. But why Otto? Unless you are Not Good. And Otto feels very scared again. Finds himself nauseated from Hophtrig's seemingly false hidey hole hospitality and wonders about if Hophtrig has backwashed into the bottle. Not yummy, nope. The FBC is maybe Otto's only true friend?
Otto had wondered about Grafinn and Hophtrig at the beginning because of their nominating and voting without reason. Otto decided the Hophtrig seemed good. And did not see further evidence about him. Didn't know one way or the other about Grafinn, still not sure.
Otto wonders if Hophtrig is pretending to be good now, and going after innocent Otto as a Bad One. The FBC is not ready to support or not support this contention. Because it might be that Hophtrig is either confused or hiding behind pretend confusion. Otto is scared, and is not sure what to think and do. Hophtrig's recent just now and behaviour at the start of trip is very puzzling. Can perhaps someone tell Otto something useful and the FBC can help him understand it?
Otto will be sitting quietly now, not drinking, but eating raisins and offering them to others, and will eat other things like dates too when they offered, but not so feeling happy with Hophtrig just now.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
So here's the question: why would somebody sacrifice themselves like that so brazenly?
Oh wait, he's not dead yet, we're just acting like he is. Ja'ayem, why did you sacrifice yourself so brazenly like that?
I'm guessing you're trying to protect someone we nominated—drawing attention away from them. I'm also guessing it wasn't just you. Nominating Ios was a bold move, and I doubt you didn't know what would come of it. So, Hophtrig or Choey—at least one of them is Possessed, right? Hey, you're about to step outside anyway; perhaps a bit of a dramatic reveal could be in order?
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
quote:
Picking her way carefully past Otto and his feather boa constrictor, she sat firmly and deliberately next to John. He seemed a trustworthy sort.
The boa constrictor was looking suspiciously at Hopthrig. She wondered why. Could his change of behaviour since the crash mean that he was possessed?
Choey pointed a light display of her thoughts on the wall.
Lady Celandine could be giving us clues as to the three she did suspect first. Having investigated John and found him trustworthy, perhaps the other two were next on her list. I am still nominating Hophtrig even though I know there will now be a counter-nomination against me and a groundswell to throw me off the bus. Otto may or may not be guilty, but I suspect Hophtrig most of all.
My reasons behind nominating and voting for Hophtrig are recorded in the bus's archives. They are still exactly the same as they were.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Thank you Choey, Hophtrig knew Hophtrig must have missed something. As things on board changed, Hophtrig changed, as did most people. But not that much. Hophtrig is still the Hophtrig you met when you got on, friendly, huggable, but maybe a little more frightened.
Otto, Hophtrig is very sorry that he still seems suspicious. Hophtrig suspects nearly everyone (not so much Ios and John any more). Hophtrig was wanting to explore the "Otto is obviously innocent so Hophtrig is obviously evil" argument. Hophtrig does not see the clarity Choey does.
Hophtrig does not see Otto as clearly innocent (sorry, Otto), but neither does he see clear guilt in Otto any longer.
Hophtrig wanted to be corrected on his suspicions of Otto, if those suspicions were wrong. Especially if Hophtrig's suspicions warranted Hophtrig's defenestration.
Hophtrig has treated the bottle with the utmost care, Hophtrig is not doing nasty things to people behind their backs, Hophtrig speaks plainly and openly, and where Hophtrig seems to be nasty, maybe he is, but Hophtrig is not sneaky.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
At about the same time as the realization comes to the angel, Ios realizes why Ja'ayem signed off as "kettle". It's a good thing Ios is tied up in a straitjacket and locked up in the HHH, otherwise she would have violated all Proper Procedures For Lynchings and Ja'ayem would have died by strangulation instead of airlock eviction.
Eliabulon, comes a faint whimper from the HHH. My pots are under the front seat. Can you get them and distribute them to the passengers? They're all nice and black, and any passenger on this bus deserves them more than me.
Ios wonders how deep the deception goes. She wonders many things. She whimpers herself to sleep using the DBA as a pillow.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Ooh, this trip is so much fun. Hophtrig has heard tell of how much fun pot can be. Hophtrig doesn't know quite how best to use one for fun. Hophtrig will turn it upside down and use it as a drum!
Thank you, Ios.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
In time to Hophtrig's drum, faintly from the HHH:
E-li-A-bu-LON,
WHAT did you THINK,
FROM the OUT-set,
the SYM-pa-THI-zer's
STRA-te-GY should BE?
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
In time to Hophtrig's drum, faintly from the HHH:
E-li-A-bu-LON,
WHAT did you THINK,
FROM the OUT-set,
the SYM-pa-THI-zer's
STRA-te-GY should BE?
Otto hears the song, and feels a little less scared because music is a happy thing. Thinks and asks the FBC to help thinking. Not ready to dance quite yet. But thinks Ios' song is very interesting. Does Ios want help with strait jacket buckles? FBC flutters feathers and wonders about that Hophtrig. First he drinks, now he's into pot. Maybe Hophtrig is a pusher and this is also why he likes to eat things. Otto taps his 3 feet in time to the song.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Well now. My avatar in RealLyfe managed to avoid having things shoved inside it while being itself shoved inside a nuclear magnetic resonance imaging machine; instead it enjoyed breakfast tacos in Austin, TX, the river walk and Alamo in San Antonio, TX, and dinner at the best barbecue place in Texas at Kreuz Market in Lockhart. And the cherry on top of that particularly satisfying sundae is the lynching of a (assumed) sympathizer.
And boy howdy the implications that go along with that.
I'm going to have to consider all these new possibilities, but good golly wolly I'm tickled plumb pink with all the new stuff to go over.
[ 28. March 2014, 02:50: Message edited by: Barefoot Friar ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
The irony is so thick in the HHH that one could cut it with a knife. But there's no knife in the HHH because sharp objects aren't allowed in the HHH at the same time as straitjackets. And also Ios' arms are all tied up in a straitjacket, so how could she cut the irony anyway?
Except her arms are looser now. And here are Otto and the FBC. Nice FBC, tickling Ios' nose with tickly feathers. And Otto looks as fabulous as usual.
"I've been reflecting on the sin of pride," says Ios. "I think I'll look and see who else might have been using my sinful pride against me. Just looking for fun. Don't expect that I'm going to be any help finding Naughty Possessed Beings. I've been reduced to a gibbering wreck."
What really puzzles Ios is how Wicked Deceitful Brilliant Lucky Lucky Lucky Sympathizer Ja'ayem managed to plant the idea in her mind that the Guilties would make a late nomination of an Innocent -- and planted this thought while she, Ios, was completing her Six Hundred Ninety Five Mile Real Lyfe challenge. It had been the perfect thought to inject into her mind, because her whole investigation (*) had grown from that one thought.
"Otto, here's my confession," says Ios. "The one thing that puzzled me was how Ja'ayem, who has such smart and logical relatives in Clan Jay-Emm vacationing in Caribbean islands right now, could be so transparently bad at being Guilty. But I brushed that question aside. I was proud and thought it didn't matter. But here it is: we now know that Ja'ayem is Diabolical. And I knew, even then, from my Caribbean reading, that members of Clan Jay-Emm are much smarter than Ja'ayem appeared to be. So what diabolical reason does he have for coming on this Tour as a transparently Guilty Being, when he clearly has the smarts to come on bus tours as a devious and undetectable Guilty Being instead?"
"Not that I'm going to be of any use solving this, Otto and FBC," continues Ios. "But philosophically, is there any way to distinguish between a simple action in which Ja'ayem is protecting one or both of Hophtrig and Choey, versus a deeply deceitful plot in which Ja'ayem is protecting two of Otto, Codine, and Eliabulon?"
(*) or better, "investigation", because a true investigation would include thinking through all the logical consequences of what you're thinking, or setting out the places you're unsure and asking for help, and Ios had not done that, in her sinful sinful sinful pride. But now the irony is suffocating.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ios is now floating in an alternative universe where the eighth impossible thing before breakfast has turned out to be that Ja'ayem was protecting the two Possessed: John The Less and Zapaterietxe. She is idly considering who the undeclared Innocent Doctor and undeclared Innocent Unreadable would be in this universe.
"Zapaterietxe, can you bring your hat, and that adorable little mustard pot, in case I need to eat them.
"I know that I'm Innocent. And then I know the Innocence, or not, of those who have died. And as the Tour's first, most elementary lesson in logic, I think I know that declared Innocent Doctor John The Less and declared Innocent Unreadable Zapaterietxe are true claimants because they have not been challenged. But perhaps someone else could check my work, because I barely trust anything any more."
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
I fail to see why anyone would think Hophtrig and I are working together as mafioso. I have maintained my innocence and his guilt since Day Two.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
So? It's a perfect cover. If you're both Possessed, and the Innocents lynch one of you, then the other has a strong circumstantial protective argument that they themselves must be Innocent.
It really depends on how many layers of bluff are going on, and how bold you think the Possessed are.
Me, I have no opinions any more. I'm just here to point out ever more layers of possible bluff. Although as we have seen, I'm a Pygmy next to the real giants of deceit, so don't expect me to twig to any of the true deceits going on.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
Well now. My avatar in RealLyfe managed to avoid having things shoved inside it while being itself shoved inside a nuclear magnetic resonance imaging machine; instead it enjoyed breakfast tacos in Austin, TX, the river walk and Alamo in San Antonio, TX, and dinner at the best barbecue place in Texas at Kreuz Market in Lockhart.
Between this and the beignets/chicory at Cafe du Monde, I imagine your RLA is feeling very warm and tingly—like a jealous someone's trying very hard to set it on fire with their mind
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
In time to Hophtrig's drum, faintly from the HHH:
E-li-A-bu-LON,
WHAT did you THINK,
FROM the OUT-set,
the SYM-pa-THI-zer's
STRA-te-GY should BE?
At ze very start? Claim to be ze detective.
Ze two investigators vere ze biggest threat to ze Possessed. Killing zem before zey could report zeir findings should have been ze guilty’s first priority. Vith most role claims, ze problem for ze guilty is zat vun person knows immediately zat ze claimant is lying, but here ve had two people each thinking zey vere ze detective, und knowing zat somevun else thought ze same.
So if Ja’ayem had said “I am ze detective” Crimson* vould have thought, “Ah, so it is me und Ja’ayem”, Lady Celandine vould have thought “Ah, so it is me und Ja’ayem”, John vould have guarded Ja’ayem, ze two detectives, knowing zis, vould not have declared zemselves (ze doctor can guard only vun), und ze killers vould have had a clear field to find und kill our specialists. Meanvile, Ja’ayem, as an uncontradicted innocent, vould have been influencing every vote. Und he vould not even had had to commit himself to special knowledge, because, his fake investigator persona vould not know vether it vas pretending to be ze detective or ze inspector.
Of course, ven vun of ze real investigators died it vould have fallen apart – although, ve might have been as much or more suspicious of ze new claimant as of Ja’ayem, und might have lynched ze wrong vun, but given zat ze sympathiser is not needed for ze guilty to vin, ze disruption to our plans over perhaps three days vould have been vorth zis.
Vell, zat is vat I vould have done. It vould have failed, in zis case, but only because ze killers found ze investigators so qvickly.
After zat, (und it vas after zat I said zat I had ideas) I vas still expecting role claims und disruption as a strong possibility (ze ozer being to signal to ze killers, und zen lie low), and in fact Joostein’s fale role claim vould be an excellent example of ze conduct I vould expect from ze sympathiser. I vas also expecting pointed suspicion at ze guilty ven zey vere not nominated, or ven ze vote going against zem vas unlikely, und silence, und a change of heart, ven zey vere in actual danger. Und I vas expecting some sort of signal to be passed – some “I am on your side” message, from ze sympathiser to ze killers. Although not necessarily ze ozer vay around as ze killers may not have picked up on any signal (und, I suspect here, did not – no vun particularly defended Ja’ayem) or have thought it vorth ze risk.
I vill say zat although I vas right in general zat Ja’ayem, Choey und Hophtrig vere ze ‘sympathiser’s group’, und (at ze end, but not all ze time) vould have placed zem in zat order of suspicion, I had not detected any clear evidence zat it vas Ja’ayem. I vould not have been too surprised if it had been Choey. I vould have been qvite surprised if it had been Hophtrig, but astonished if it had been anyvun else.
I am going to look to see vat might have been a signal from Ja’ayem.
(*Vell, no, Crimson vould have been suspicious – because it vas Crimson. But Ja’ayem did not know zat it vas Crimson who vas ze inspector at zis point)
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Thanks, Eliabulon. I asked partly from curiosity, and partly as a little test. If you had said "vat Ja'ayem just did is vat I thought ze Sympathizer vould do," then I would have wondered why you didn't warn me, as I was playing into Ja'ayem's hands with my incandescent righteous attack, and I would have thought that the fact that you did not warn me maybe made you look a little like a Possessed.
I keep wondering if I should nominate you, just to turn over that puzzling pot that is Eliabulon and see what's underneath, because of the little doubt that Joostein raised, and all the other now-known Innocents said at the beginning, "There's something a little off about how Eliabulon is acting, not quite like a normal member of Clan Eliab." To be honest, I don't see anything off. It's just that I think you're brilliant enough and bold enough to have carried out any number of monstrous deceits and any number of levels of brazen bluff, all deliberately calculated to fool poor foolish Ios.
But there is my monstrous sinful pride again: (1) to think that I would be the person you would fear the most as an Innocent trying to figure you out, and hence the person for whom you would most fine-tune your deceits to hoodwink, and (2) to be tempted by the thought "Wouldn't it be a wonderful feather in my cap to be the one to detect a Possessed Eliabulon? I wonder if it's worth the risk of lynching an Innocent Eliabulon for the chance of earning that feather, on the slim chance that Eliabulon is Possessed."
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ios:
all the other now-known Innocents said at the beginning
To clarify this possibly ambiguous phrase: I don't mean that every now-known Innocent indicated that they thought there was something off about Eliabulon as a representative of Clan Eliab (although I suppose they may have; I haven't done an inventory to check). I just mean that it was more than just Joostein, and as I recall it was more than just one other besides Joostein, and as I recall those others include Beings who have since been proved Innocent.
[ 28. March 2014, 11:29: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Ios, are you really doubting the Grafinn, or just asking questions?
I'm beginning to lose my patience with and trust in Cho Bacca. I'm wondering about Hophtrig and Otto. Codine still seems mainly innocent to me, but I haven't fully cleared him.
For the record, I'm still uneasy about the Grafinn, but I haven't seen any signs of possession recently and I'm holding her in the "unsure but assumed innocent" group until I get more info -- which may include the end of the game. In other words, I'm waffling again.
[ 28. March 2014, 12:54: Message edited by: Barefoot Friar ]
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Personally, I think that since Ja'ayem is the sympathizer--and I'm going to bite something hard if that was another false claim--most people are less suspicious looking than Chooey. (Hophtrig is more suspicious than he was for sure, but if he's guilty he's also very sly and I'm not sure he's that sly? What do you all think?) I just can't think what Ja'ayem was doing in nominating Ios unless he was trying to draw suspicion away from someone else who was nominated already. Surely that's got to be either Chooey or Hophtrig?
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto's imaginary friend is feeling a little ill this morning. The side effects no-one really gets from the magnetronic imaging goop have apparently visited Otto's fictitious friend. or maybe some Bad One on the bus is casting bad spells or wickedness toward him? Otto hears the line up and thinks the reasoning of Ios is sound, but also thinks Choey reasoning is sound, and is waiting for the FBC, who does not feel ill to think a little for him today too.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
Just a moment here, before we start wondering if our good friend, the sinister Cultist of the Possessors of Nature Ja'ayem, is playing a game of double-bluff and blame. I wonder if we aren't all outsmarting ourselves here; after all, no matter how clever our dearly soon-to-be-departed may be, there's only so clever their position really allows them to be; look too much like an innocent or a threat, and it's goodbye to you in the night. While the Possessed can strategize and coordinate all they want, the Cultist is off on his lonesome (soon to be very, very alone indeed), and can't risk anything that might draw the ire of the Possessed. If he did, especially in the first few days before Lucy was killed, he would run the risk of looking like a detective—and we've seen what happens to anyone who even remotely looks like that.
Of course, he also has full and perfect knowledge of who the Possessed are. So, couple this with the fact that his ability to betray them is pretty much nil, and I think we should be able to derive a few interesting facts from his few statements and voting record.
First: his first day's suspicions include a known innocent, a highly suspected one, and the Grafinn. I'm going to put this down as one more piece of evidence in her favor, keeping us from having to overturn that pot, as Ios put it.
Next up: voted for Otto. Hm. This would make Otto look better, if someone who couldn't vote for the Possessed voted for him. It would also limit the number of people who voted for Otto to one…which Choey would have us believe is indicative of their guilt. Of course, I do have to wonder how Choey knew—was so absolutely positive—so early that Otto was innocent…
There's a lot more that could be worked out here.
The vote for Joostein tells us zilch.
And now, voting for himself. Like he wants to be the sacrifice. Like there's someone more valuable he's protecting—maybe even two someones. Making absolutely sure the vote went against him, and not (one of) them.
So I think our pool of five has been safely narrowed to a pool of three…okay, three and a half. I'm not convinced of Otto's innocence, but he certainly looks less guilty. We can also be fairly confident that at least one of today's first two nominees—Hophtrig and Choey—are Possessed. It could even be both of them.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
Ios, are you really doubting the Grafinn, or just asking questions?
I'm just asking questions. I'm rectifying a fatal error I made with Ja'ayem. A mistake I made was not at least airing to the group the one little thing that puzzled me at the time ("why is Ja'ayem, a member of Clan Jay-Emm who cleverly vacations on Caribbean islands, seeming so obviously Guilty?").
So I'm trying to do more airing of the little things I think about. But I really have no effing clue at this point. Part of how I think is that I think about everything. I think "but X would be impossible" and then, darn it all, I think "but, wait, now that X has occurred to me, I wonder if there's a way that X might be possible?" and then I have to think about X as well as A to W which I was already trying to think about.
(probably cross-posted with about a million Beings. I got interrupted while writing it.)
[ 28. March 2014, 16:33: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
As all nine votes are in and for the second day in a row, the vote is unanimous.
Dimthing Tours are pleased to announce that Ja'ayem has been evicted. He was the possessed non-killer (mafia sympathiser).
The lights go out on the bus. Night actions please.
[ 28. March 2014, 16:57: Message edited by: Dafyd ]
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
So I think our pool of five has been safely narrowed to a pool of three…okay, three and a half. I'm not convinced of Otto's innocence, but he certainly looks less guilty. We can also be fairly confident that at least one of today's first two nominees—Hophtrig and Choey—are Possessed. It could even be both of them.
Otto will have it as a pool of 3. Because Otto knows of his innocence. Otto will vote for the one that seems the most likely, of Hophtrig and Choey he thinks because this reasoning seems to be sound. But also this is interesting:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
Ios, are you really doubting the Grafinn, or just asking questions?
I'm just asking questions. I'm rectifying a fatal error I made with Ja'ayem. A mistake I made was not at least airing to the group the one little thing that puzzled me at the time ("why is Ja'ayem, a member of Clan Jay-Emm who cleverly vacations on Caribbean islands, seeming so obviously Guilty?").
So I'm trying to do more airing of the little things I think about. But I really have no effing clue at this point.
Otto has had this idea in the past too, butt he has no clue either about Grafinn, though uses a different letter of the alphabet to say he has no atching clue about it and would have to have more evidence before going with that. The FBC and Otto have decided not to drink more Hophtrig ale, though the FBC points out to him that he should mention that not drinking out of Hophtrig's bottle does not mean he leans toward Choey more.
(He was encouraged by his fictional friend who in Fake Life has found a cup of tea helping him to feel less ill, and probably also because the results of the Megatronicalistic Reuben Sandwich have come back with Good News.)
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Ja'ayem voted for Otto.
Choey, Hophtrig is very sorry, Otto, Choey is sorry, too. Hophtrig understands now, how Ja'ayem's naughtiness suggests Otto's goodness. Hophtrig can see he has been silly.
Hophtrig is not very suspicious of Otto any more.
Otto, Hophtrig is very sorry.
Zapaterietxe, oh clever Zapaterietxe. You put it in words that Hophtrig finally understood. Ja'ayem voted for Otto against Reppik.
This does make Hophtrig look bad. Hophtrig might look like someone naughty trying to lead the voting, followed by a being who would naturally follow someone naughty in their devious plan.
Choey understood this much quicker than Hophtrig. Otto, I think Hophtrig will finish this bottle, then crawl down the back of the bus in the dark to see if Ios will let Hophtrig into the hidey hole.
Hophtrig will be sitting in the hidey hole very quietly, banging his Hophtrig head against the wall and trying that reallyfe driving challenge (with 98th Birthday party in the middle)
Hophtrig is very silly, Hophtrig is very silly...
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Here is the revised list of Nice/Naughty in light of recent events:
Confirmed Innocent by Dafyd
Crimson (la vie en rouge) - INNOCENT, INSPECTOR, DEAD BY MURDER
Lesley (Kelly Alves) - INNOCENT, DEAD BY REAL LYFE
Her Eminence, the Lady Celandine Diamante De Cooperhoop / Lucy (Starbug) - INNOCENT, DETECTIVE, DEAD BY MURDER
Joostein Käse (JFH) - INNOCENT, DEAD BY LYNCHING
Daisy (Surfing Madness) - INNOCENT, DEAD BY MURDER
Believed Innocent by Unchallenged Role Claim
John (Barefoot Friar) - INNOCENT, DOCTOR
Zapaterietxe (Ariston) - INNOCENT, UNREADABLE
I know I'm Innocent
Ios (Autenrieth Road)
I'm not questioning her Innocence at least until Dimthing morning
Grafinn Ekatarina Eliabulon (Eliab)
Unknown. Hunting here for two Possessed Naughtythings (listed in alphabetical order)
Cho Bacca Loriette (Banner Lady)
Codine (Gwai)
Hophtrig (Alban)
Otto von Biggleswarpski (no prophet)
Confirmed Guilfy by Dafyd
Reppik Tew (Wet Kipper) - POSSESSED, UNREADABLE, DEAD BY LYNCHING
Ja'ayem (Jay-Emm) - SYMPATHISER, DEAD BY LYNCHING
[ 28. March 2014, 18:43: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Ios, you're clever. Hophtrig kind of likes your list, it makes things simpler. But how to rate your unknowns.
- Hophtrig: Voted with a known naughty. Very suspicious.
- Codine: Keeps a low profile. Suspicious.
- Otto: Was chosen by a naughty instead of an unreadable naughty. Was saved by a naughty. Not particularly open with inner logic. Mildly suspicious.
- Choey. Hophtrig wants to say "suspects Hophtrig, extremely suspicious" but Hophtrig can't. Instead, Hophtrig will say, very certain she wants to save Otto. Vague tingle of suspicion.
Hophtrig doesn't like this list so much any more.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Hophtrig, Ios is glad you like Ios' list, and sorry that Hophtrig still has to be in the Unknown group. Ios herself has no idea about anybody in the Unknown group, whether they're Naughty or Nice. Ios has been on a strict diet of bread, water, and humble pie today. But Ios has been having a lot of fun playing with Hophtrig and Otto in the Hophtrig Hidey Hole, so Ios would like the Naughtythings to be Choey and Codine. But as far as Ios thinks, could be anyone. Or more precisely, anytwo.
[Oh, wait, Ios isn't reading carefully. Yes, Ios can see why Hophtrig doesn't like Ios' list so much anymore.]
[ 28. March 2014, 19:35: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Humble pie? Can Hophtrig please try some?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Oh no, Hophtrig, humble pie tastes absolutely horrid, plus Ios has eaten every last scrap, horrid as it was. Here, this will taste much better. Sorry Ios doesn't have anything better to offer Hophtrig. Perhaps Hophtrig could ask Zapaterietxe for some mustard from Zapaterietxe's mustard pot to go with it?
Ios hands Hophtrig a crust of stale bread.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Table of Contents to Important Events
Textual analysis suggests that the author is one Ios, who was last seen boarding a bus on Dimthing and whose fate we do not yet know.
page 1 - Dimthing Bus Tour is announced
page 1 - passengers begin boarding bus
page 2 - Dimthing Bus Tour departs station, immediately has an accident
page 3 - Dimthing Bus Tours announces that all passengers should now know who they are
page 3 - Day One begins in earnest
page 3 - passenger list posted (by Eliabulon)
page 3 - Zapaterietxe starts a game of "List Your Three Suspects"
page 4 - Dimthing Bus Tours announces bus schedule for day, night, nominations, voting, lynching, and general mayhem and insanity for the diversion of the passengers trapped on the stranded bus
page 5 - Day One Nominations close, voting opens
page 6 - Day One: No Lynching wins the election
page 6 - Night One begins
page 6 - Night One: Innocent Inspector Crimson is murdered overnight
page 6 - Day Two begins
page 7 - Day Two nominations close, voting opens
page 8 - Codine says she thinks Ios is Innocent. If Codine is Possessed, she has just slyly appealed to Ios' sinful pride in a subtle way which will convince Ios for a long time that Codine must be innocent. (Currently, Ios has absolutely no idea any more.)
page 8 - Day Two: Possessed Unreadable Reppik Tew is lynched
page 8 - Day Two: Innocent Lovely Lesley dies of an acute case of Real Lyfe
page 8 - Night Two begins
page 9 - Night Two: Innocent Detective Lady Celandine is murdered overnight.
page 9 - Day Three begins
page 10 - no events to report for these Annals
page 11 - Joostein says he is the Doctor
page 11 - John The Less says he is the Doctor
page 12 - Otto says Ios' reasoning is sound, and Otto will follow Ios' lead on this vote
page 13 - Hophtrig likes that Ios talks about what Ios is thinking
page 14 - Ja'ayem says he is perplexed. Thinking about this, now knowing Ja'ayem is the Sympathizer and has perfect knowledge that Joo/Eli are two Innocents battling to the death, I'll bet he was perplexed. (Oh wait, a second, if Eliabulon is Possessed, would Ja'ayem be quite so perplexed? Anyway, Ja'ayem says he had come to a Grafinn/John combo, but now is perplexed. Is that a Big Fat Bluff, or is it a clue that Grafinn Eliabulon is indeed Innocent? I have no idea, but this post of Ja'ayem's is an entertaining post to read and wonder about. Here's a handy wormhole to get you there.)
page 14 - Day Three nominations close, voting opens with Eliabulon's vote. There is no official announcement from Dafyd so don't go looking for it when trying to find the start of voting.
page 15 - Joostein's valedictory speech in five volumes
page 15 - Innocent Joostein is lynched
page 15 - Night Three begins
page 15 - John The Less starts a game of "List Your Three Suspects"
page 15 - Zapaterietxe says he is the Innocent Unreadable
page 16 - Upon review, Ios The Gospel Writer writing after the Fall of Jerusa-- sorry, wrong story. Ios the Annal Writer writing after the Ja'ayem Cataclysm really likes this post by Hophtrig. It makes Ios feel calm and happy. (Not for any reason having to do with suspicions or theories or anything, it just makes me, and my Fake Life fictitious friend A., feel calm and happy.)
page 17 - Innocent Daisy has been murdered overnight
page 17 - Day Four begins
page 17 - Revised list of Day One's Game Of Three Suspicions posted (by Ios)
page 18 - no events to report for these Annals
page 19 - The Fall of Ios the Fool begins
page 19 - Day Four nominations close, voting opens
page 20 - no events to report for these Annals
page 21 - Sympathiser Ja'ayem is lynched
page 21 - Night Four begins
page 21 - Ios posts passenger list with revised list of Innocence, Possession, and Sympathetic Nature
page 21 - Ios posts these Annals
still to come - Ios plans to post revised list of nominations, votes, and murders including recent events. Also list of John The Less' Game Of Three Suspects from Night Three, page 15. Not sure when I'll get to these; Ios did so well at last week's Six Hundred Ninety Five Mile driving challenge that the game of Real Lyfe has chosen her to do it again. (Actually, the double challenge was planned all along for two consecutive Dimthing Nights.)
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Generous Hophtrig:
And Hophtrig has a piece of seat fluff with a spring attached for the next friend who nominates a naughty person, when the naughty person they nominated leaves the bus.
Hophtrig, do you still have your seat fluff spring? I think an awards ceremony is in order. John, come over here. Assembled Beings, assemble yourselves. Hophtrig, can you play your pot drum and present the seat fluff spring at the same time? Or, wait, it looks like Ja'ayem has left something behind, for any who dares play it. Who would like to play this kettle drum?
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
If Choey wants to save Otto, Otto thinks she must be Good. However, if Choey is a Bad, then she is saving Otto because she is involved in misdirection. Otto does not see this as likely. This is based on Hophtrig's list which says Choey is saving Otto.
Otto does not think Ios is behaving like a Bad One. Otto does not know so well about Hophtrig, Codine and the Grafinn. But Otto hears from the FBC who reminds him the Grafinn is not really suspected and cannot recall why. Sees that Ios doesn't suspect her and not sure the reasons either. Something about the morning that Otto and FBC don't understand.
Meanwhile Otto drinks more tea, eats more raisins, and remembers that he has a flute, on which he plays a toe tapping little ditty called The Wheels On The Bus Go Round And Round. The FBC waves its tail feathers in time.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ios doesn't know what she thinks about anyone except the deaded Beings and the two lived Beings with declared roles. But it's too confusing right now to try to consider whether the Grafinn might be Possessed, so Ios is going to consider the Grafinn Innocent during this Dimthing Night, because Ios' Real Lyfe app seems to be malfunctioning and acting like a Big Horrible Bear, and Ios needs some simplicity in her life. Ios will see how she feels about it in the Dimthing morning, when she might have more clarity on the bus and also might have been able to download a required update to improve her Real Lyfe app. Fortunately the Six Hundred Ninety Five Mile challenge is soothing for Ios, and she can think calmly and peacefully during it.
Ios is sitting in the nice front seat looking out the big window at the stars, with a
.
Ios' fictitious friend A. would like to say that she, A., is enjoying this Dimthing Bus Tour very much, no matter how maddeningly confusing it can get. She would come on another bus tour in a heartbeat.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Hooray! The Six Hundred Ninety Five Mile challenge is starting! Ios has asked the app for, and received, two Spend The Night In A Hotel challenge cards, which are among her favorite challenges. She can be seen in the front seat, faintly outlined in starlight, smiling.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ios has met an
during her Six Hundred Ninety Five Mile challenge. Now, outlined in starlight in the front seat, she looks like this:
. Peace descends, on both Ios and her fictitious friend A. How wonderful it is to be surrounded by friends, all the Nicethings and even the Naughtythings.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
My avatar did a mere 497 miles today. Although there was a Texas Ranger museum and some Tex-Mex food mixed in there somewhere.
Too tired to comment further, although I encourage everyone to talk as much as possible during this Dimthing night.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Here is the list from the Day One Game Of Three Suspicions proposed by Zapaterietxe. I re-post it here for easy comparison with the Night Three Game oeiosed by John, coming right up. Here are the results of Zapaterietxe's proposal:
On Dimthing day one, Zapaterietxe proposed we start by listing our three top suspicions. Here is what they were, with each busrider's name followed by their list of suspects.
Some people can count higher than three, so they listed more suspicions. I have converted instances of Otto's old name "John" into "Otto", but some of the Johns left on the list, whom I take to be Johns The Less (John The Lesses?) may actually be Ottos.
Top three suspicions:
Zapaterietxe: Choey, John, Hophtrig
Ja'ayem: Ios, Lucy, Eliabulon
Lady Celandine: Lovely Lesley, Eliabulon, Hophtrig
Lovely Lesley: Eliabulon, Hophtrig, Choey
Eliabulon: Joostein, Codine, John, Otto, Reppik, Daisy (all mostly on grounds of silence or unhelpfulness up to that point)
Hophtrig: Crimson, Otto, Lovely Lesley
John: (in no particular order) Codine, Lovely Lesley, Otto (all on grounds of being unrevealing up to that point)
Reppik Tew: Hophtrig, and any non-corporeal entities [which I, Ios, take to mean: Crimson and Zapaterietxe]
Joostein: Eliabulon, Crimson, Codine, Otto (the last two on grounds of silence)
[ 29. March 2014, 04:51: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
On Dimthing night three, John The Less proposed we list our three top suspicions for the three Guilties remaining (two Possessed, one Sympathizer). Here is what they were, with each busrider's name followed by their list of suspects.
Hophtrig - the tour guide, John, Ios
Zapaterietxe - Choey, Otto. Z reveals his Unreadable nature in this post.
Ja'ayem - Eliabulon, Choey, Otto. [Read Ja'ayem's post. What do people think?
Otto - Eliabulon. Hophtrig, Ios
Eliabulon - Choey, Otto, Hophtrig
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Ios, I think Hophtrig was being a little bit silly when he wrote that list, Hophtrig blames the bottle. Your favourite post contains a better list of the most suspicious, The Graffin, Otto and Hophtrig.
Hophtrig is loving the bus trip, too, Ios, and is glad Ios' challenge is going so well.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
And yes, John, Hophtrig has a spring for you - whatever loot you may find from the unmourned Ja'ayem.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Co Bacca Loriette sighed as she listened to the chatter from the remaining bus passengers in the dark.
There were 8 travellers left.
John and the dark angel were not suspects.
Choey knew of her own innocence and did not suspect Otto.
She doubted whether Ios and the Grafinn were guilty.
That left only two on her alarmingly suspicious list.
As someone much wiser than she had already said: "Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar".
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ios knows Hophtrig was being a bit silly when he wrote his answer for John's game of List Three Suspects. Hophtrig's list makes Ios smile.
Something else that makes Ios smile is that although apparently Ios and Choey are usually very different in how they think, in this case Ios actually agrees with Choey.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ios did not read carefully enough, and on rereading Ios realizes she does not entirely agree with Choey. The one thing Ios would disagree with Choey on is that cigars had been mentioned by somebody much wiser than Choey. Although that was a very sweet thing for Choey to say.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ios had an editing mishap earlier this Dimthing evening, and although she thought something was wrong with her report of John's game she couldn't figure it out. After playing her Real Lyfe Spend The Night In A Hotel challenge, and drawing the bonus card of Get The Best Night's Sleep You've Had In A Long Time, Ios spots her errors, which were in Eliabulon's list and the order of Eliabulon's and Otto's turns in John's game.
Ios apologizes for the inconvenience. Ios doesn't think it changes anything anyone had said so far about the report (but please correct me if I'm wrong, Hophtrig and Choey). Ios would like to offer this revised report:
On Dimthing night three, John The Less proposed we list our three top suspicions for the three Guilties remaining (two Possessed, one Sympathizer). Here is what they were, with each busrider's name followed by their list of suspects.
Hophtrig - the tour guide, John, Ios
Zapaterietxe - Choey, Otto. Z reveals his Unreadable nature in this post.
Ja'ayem - Eliabulon, Choey, Otto. [Read Ja'ayem's post. What do people think?]
Eliabulon - Choey, Ja'ayem, Hophtrig
Otto - Eliabulon. Hophtrig, Ios
[ 29. March 2014, 10:17: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
Choey, you've been very consistent in maintaining Otto's innocence, and have done it for a long time, even while he seemed suspicious to the rest of us. Why?
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
Choey, you've been very consistent in maintaining Otto's innocence, and have done it for a long time, even while he seemed suspicious to the rest of us. Why?
That is an excellent and reasonable question.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
This is also Otto's question too. Otto's list is Hophtrig, Eliabulon and Choey. Of these, he would have thought the first two, but the third is making him nervous, which is why he now says Choey. Is Choey doing misdirection? and by focussing on Otto, actually setting him up? The FBC wraps itself snuggly around Otto's second and fourth necks and says that this is a very good question. The behaviour does seem suspicious, even if comforting that someone seems to like Otto. Otto thinks "beware of cranberries masquerading as blueberries", and decides to listen as intently as his five ears will allow.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto is not suspecting Ios.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Otto! You have five ears! How fabulous! I didn't notice that before. I've only been admiring your three fabulous legs so far. And of course the fabulous FBC.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
The five ears are good for holding up eye glasses. Which are useful for seeing. There are different lenses of course for the compound eyes, those made of calcium carbonate, and the central squidgy one. Otto is glad to have had his ears circumcised when young because this avoids frostbite and sliding of the glasses down his backs.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Backs? Otto has multiple backs?
And eyeglasses -- does Otto not wear contact lenses because perhaps the number of hands multiplied by the number of eyes make too many combinations, and Otto would forever be putting the wrong contact lens in the wrong eye?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Otto, what about Codine? You didn't mention him in your two posts above looking at the candidates, where you mentioned your fabulous five ears and then the post after that, of which Ios is too modest (
say the Assembled Beings) to mention the content (
says Ios to the Assembled Peanut Gallery).
[ 29. March 2014, 15:15: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig really likes Zapaterietxe's big question.
Hophtrig likes Zapaterietxe's big question for two reasons.
Number one reason, Hophtrig really should have asked Choey the big question about Otto.
Number two reason, the big question means that Hophtrig's friends are not looking so hard at Hophtrig. Hophtrig does like to be the centre of attention, but Hophtrig was just starting to feel a bit uncomfortable.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey thinks Otto is most probably innocent for the simple reason that when Reppik Tew was nominated, Hophtrig suddenly counter nominated Otto, though he previously had voiced suspicions agains Crimson, John and Lesley (all innocent).
This made Choey immediately suspicious. This is what made Choey look hard at Hophtrig, and want others to look hard at Hophtrig too. Then, when Ja'ayem was confirmed as a sympathizer, Choey realized that Ja'ayem KNEW who the mafia were. Ja'ayem, as a sympathizer would not have wanted to vote for Reppik Tew. And he didn't. He too, voted for Otto.
This is why Otto is not suspicious to Choey. The FBC, however, is another matter, and Choey is quite wary of it, just in case there are teeth under all those feathers.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Thank you Choey.
That was very Helpful. Everybody, what a good friend Choey is. And the light from the explaniator looks good in the dark.
Hophtrig's first names were just suspicions.
But oh boy, what a mess Hophtrig got himself in when he nominated Otto.
Hophtrig is not sneaky and underhanded, Hophtrig is plain and open, maybe too plain and open. Hophtrig let Hophtrig's suspicions come out at that stage - Hophtrig should just have stayed quiet and listened to the anti-Reppik brigade. But Hophtrig was too silly for that, Hophtrig found that Hophtrig was fighting with Hophtrig's friends and tangled up with a naughty person.
Hophtrig likes this bus. Hophtrig is a little scared about what lies outside the airlock.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey flicked the explainiator back on.
Hophtrig, if you are innocent, then I will be very surprised if you last the night out. For the obvious reason that if you and I are both innocent, then the mafia would most likely kill you, to make me look the most guilty, and have me evicted.
If you are guilty, then I suspect that another innocent will be targeted overnight, and the guilt laid at my enormous feet, so that I may be evicted tomorrow.
The mafia now NEED to get rid of two innocent passengers in quick succession. They cannot afford to lose any more members.
But whatever happens to me, it is a good formula for the innocents to vote together after John. This is our strength, and this is what is most effective, as long as John stays alive.
He is the key to the mafia being defeated.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Choey, Hophtrig thinks an innocent Otto or even an innocent Choey would be a more likely death tonight. Were that to happen, then Hophtrig'd be blamed either because he accused the dead being or was accused by them.
Somehow, everyone is looking so hard at Hophtrig right now that killing a good Hophtrig would be a waste of a murder - the good people are likely to put Hophtrig out the airlock, more likely than some other possible victims. But maybe taking away our Ios or John or another of the good talkers, would work well for them, too.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Yes, Ios you are right, Otto had forgotten about Codine. "Oh goodness gracious my ears and whiskers!!" said Otto. And the FBC waves its feathery tail appendage. What should we be thinking about Codine?
Perhaps Otto has been too personal. But this might as well be clarified. Otto looks like a cross among a lobster, 4½ rabbits, an octopus, two mountain goats and an amoeba. There's lots of radiation on Planet 11 consequently most beings look rather unusual. But as it is said on Planet 11, it is the content of one's hearts (all of them) that is more important than what one looks like, and the soul most of all. And as is also said, "you can't judge a bus by its passengers".
To further clarify, the FBC doesn't have teeth, nor even a real jaw. Being more like a long feathery licorice than anything else. Does bite. Merely waves in the wind while photosynthesising.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Does NOT bite.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
Choey thinks Otto is most probably innocent for the simple reason that when Reppik Tew was nominated, Hophtrig suddenly counter nominated Otto, though he previously had voiced suspicions agains Crimson, John and Lesley (all innocent).
In the interest of accuracy, I think it important to point out that when Otto came aboard, he asked that we call him John (which I missed at first, which is why I added "the Less" to my name). Hophtrig continued to call him John for a bit longer. So I see some ambiguity here; I read it as him nominating Otto, a.k.a. John.
Of course, please correct me if I am wrong.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
What if Ja'ayem's goal was not to sacrifice himself for Choey and/or Hophtrig, but to be sure he was found out as the Sympathiser? Instead of trying to protect one or both of Choey or Hophtrig, what if he is trying to frame them? This could be a plot set in motion well before Choey or Hophtrig were even nominated, indeed before this Dimthing Day.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto was a silly boy when he arrived, emerging from sleep and wasn't sure if he should correctly identify himself, having never been on a bus tour before. He continues perhaps to be silly and is giggling in between times of fear and scaredness.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig really likes your thinking, Ios.
Choey is a good friend, even though we do fight a bit, Hophtrig would like to believe we're both innocent.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I said earlier that I agreed with Choey. But now I don't know what I think. I wouldn't know if I agreed with anyone.
I think it would be good if we could have several lines of reasoning and evidence that would point towards who to nominate tomorrow. If we get convergence from several different ways of approaching the problem, that might increase our likelihood of success.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig really doesn't know what to think, either. Hophtrig likes everyone on this bus. What Hophtrig thinks is: Hophtrig knows he can trust John, Hophtrig suspects he can trust Zapaterietxe, Ios, Otto and Choey. Hophtrig hopes he can trust The Graffin and Codine.
Hophtrig is confused. The beings in Hophtrig's suspects and hopes groups keep dancing about and changing places. Hophtrig knows he can't trust all the beings in his list, there are naughty ones in there.
Sorry naughty beings, Hophtrig doesn't trust you. Please tell Hophtrig who you are.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
What if Ja'ayem's goal was not to sacrifice himself for Choey and/or Hophtrig, but to be sure he was found out as the Sympathiser? Instead of trying to protect one or both of Choey or Hophtrig, what if he is trying to frame them? This could be a plot set in motion well before Choey or Hophtrig were even nominated, indeed before this Dimthing Day.
But we were quite likely going to lynch Choey anyway. (Zapa's suspicions, questions and all) If Ja'ayem wanted her lynched, all he had to do was sit down, shut up, and not nominate Ios.
[ 30. March 2014, 02:01: Message edited by: Gwai ]
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Nothing was black and white before Ja'ayem threw Ios in the mix and clarified things so beautifully for us. It could've been Choey. It could've been Hophtrig. Then Ja'ayem played on our comfort with the idea that it wasn't Ios and left.
By Ja'ayem's action, we have been left with the feeling that either Hophtrig or Choey is guilty, and the likely course of action would be throw one, and if that friend is innocent, throw the other. If both Choey and Hophtrig are both good, that course would be perfect for the naughty beings. Not to say Choey and Hophtrig are definitely both good, but Ios' warning is a wise one.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Definitely. I just don't see what Ja'ayem did what he did if you're both innocent. If so then surely we would have lynched an innocent. He didn't need to step in and pretend to save someone to get an innocent lynched.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
But to get two thrown off, maybe we needed more confidence that one of these two was naughty. If we follow the theory, if Hophtrig got thrown off and was good, then Choey would mourn and say how wrong she was. And because she had no special knowledge unless she was naughty, she might be believed and someone really naughty have been chosen by a process of logic instead. But with what Ja'ayem did, if she convinces people that Hophtrig is naughty and goes off today, and it is proven that Hophtrig is good, weep as she may, Choey would have more evidence against her than what could have been a mistake. "Surely", the friends are supposed to think "Ja'ayem died saving someone, if it wasn't Hophtrig, then..."
Much more certain and less dangerous for the naughties.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
So it seems we've narrowed it down to Hophtrig, Otto, Cho Bacca, and Codine.
All have good arguments for and against, which makes deciding harder.
The best case has been built against Cho Bacca, although much of what causes her to be accused could be read as an innocent along the lines of Lesley.
Hophtrig seems to be in the most unstable position, due to the various ways people have implicated him. Whether it is a frame or not, I do not know.
Otto hasn't looked really great since Reppik ham-fistedly tried to save him on Day Two. However, that particular event could have been an attempt to get an innocent lynched, and in general a case can be made for Otto's innocence.
Codine claims innocence, and I still think the body of evidence points in that direction. However, a sneaky Possessed would love to be in the spot Codine is in at the moment, and getting there isn't terribly hard.
As a bonus, I think I heard a few rumblings of -- not outright suspicion, but an unsure feeling -- of the Grafinn. However, I believe that has now been put to rest, even for me.
Zapaterietxe, got any thoughts? Ios? Grafinn?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Thanks for the summary, John The Less. Unfortunately, I have no idea what I think right now.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
We may just have to pick one and hope for the best.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
John, you may be a very clever being and a good friend, but Hophtrig doesn't much like the idea of throwing something at an imaginary dartboard to find the naughty person. Hophtrig is keen on the idea of grouping behind a clever, innocent person (like you, John) but not quite so keen on the idea of following someone's random selection. Please talk with a little more certainty.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alban:
John, you may be a very clever being and a good friend, but Hophtrig doesn't much like the idea of throwing something at an imaginary dartboard to find the naughty person. Hophtrig is keen on the idea of grouping behind a clever, innocent person (like you, John) but not quite so keen on the idea of following someone's random selection. Please talk with a little more certainty.
I know exactly what you mean. At the moment I have a few clues. They seem to point more to Cho Bacca than to anyone else, but I am not convinced enough to nominate her and push for lynching. This applies to all four of the suspects.
So I see what you mean about not wanting to play darts, as it were, with our nominations. I assure you if I nominate someone it will be because I am convinced that one is guilty and needs to be pushed off the bus now. Until then, I'm leaving myself free to speculate and even to change my mind several times.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
I have now read every vord of ze transcipts from Ja'ayem.
He vas never very talkative, und vat he said vas mostly sound but non-commital analysis. I could see nothing at all zat looked like a hint of his sympathies vith ze killers. Ze method I used vas, venever he mentioned somevun who is still alive, or Reppik (because ve know he vas guilty) to ask myself "If I vere zat person, und zey vere guilty, vould I think zat zis vas a message to me?" Und in every case, I could see no reason for thinking zat it vas.
I did not alvays agree vith him, but, apart from ze failure to vote for Reppik, zere vas very little zat did not seem consistent vith innocence. Vith hindsight (but not at ze time) I see somevun keeping a low profile, involving himself in discussion enough to seem useful, but no more. He did not push hard for anyvun's guilt or innocence. Und he said, at ze start, zat ze sympathiser meant zat ze killers "get an extra vote at the crucial end game". I think zat zis must have been his plan - to stay in ze game vithout firm commitment, until vun vote vould make a difference to his allies.
Ze vun comment zat struck me as out of ze ordinary vas zis:
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
Fourthly, if you are innocent and female, be very very scared. Looking at who we have lost, the odds are not in your favour. This suggests to me an aggressive male trio of baddies. And if that trio includes Zapaterietxe and the Grafinn we are in trouble. Best case scenario is that it includes only one of those two. Who survives the next black out will tell us much.
That is a very interesting observation. I don't know if correlation means causation in this case or not... worth a thought, anyway.
Seconded. Definitely worth a very long discussion afterwards.
It is a sample of 2 (3 if the mafia can reach out in RL) so it's not impossible to be chance.
And thinking of real life could be consistent with an all female mafia.
And of course the mafia are trying to be deceitful, which may be enough to make a stronger dent in casual sexism than the rest of us.
But it is interesting... (although now the mafia will definitely be aware of what signals they send-and we're back in quad bluff zone)
It seemed to be zat zis vas not a discussion vorth having at all. Ve had, at zis point, lost Crimson (physically incorporeal und grammatically neuter) und Lady Celandine (physically and grammatically feminine). Zey vere both investigators, though vether zis vas reasoning or luck ve do not know. Und, as Ja'ayem himself pointed out, even if ze killers vere targetting ze non-masculine passengers (und zere is no reason to think zey vere), zat vould not prove zat zey zemselves vere male or female.
Saying zat zis vas a discussion he vanted to have somehow does not fit ze pattern. But, of course, he did not zen initiate zat discussion, vich suggests he did not actually vant to have it, but zat it vas, from his point of view, a promising dead end to vich he could lead us.
Vich, very veakly, suggests zat ze killers are of different genders, if either of ze possible (und illogical) conclusions of zis misconceived discussion vere not a threat to Ja'ayem's allies. But only veakly. It may be he vas intending to steer ze discussion more positively vun vay or anozer.
Vich is a long vay of saying zat Ja'ayem's contributions up to yesterday tell me very little.
Zat said, since Ja'ayem is ze vun guilty person vith a distinct interest in communicating vith ze killers, I think zat it is vorth looking at his vords closely. Somevun else may see something zat I have missed.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
Vat else can ve learn from Ja'ayem?
Ze first (und obviously I vill put it first) is zat it supports my innocence. I argued very strongly zat ze sympathiser vas in ze Ja'ayem/Choey/Hophtrig group, und zat as ve vere two votes from defeat unless ze had a success, ve should go zere to find vun.
I did not know for certain vere ze sympathiser vas. No vun did - possibly not even ze killers. So ze fact zat Ja'ayem vas guilty is not in itself proof zat I am innocent. But vat it does show is zat I vas arguing zat ve should look to zis group, und to Ja'ayem und Choey especially, in good faith, und using my best judgement. Ze fact zat I vas right shows zat I vas not trying to mislead vith plausible lies, but vorking out a conclusion vich had a genuinely high chance of being right.
Vat else? Vell zat depends, I think, on ven Ja'ayem gave up hope. I think zat ven he first tried to focus our attention on ze 'Reppik group' (Otto, Codine, Ios und me) he vas still trying to survive. I think zat his record shows zat survival to ze endgame vas his strategy, so I think zat his first reaction vas "How can I avoid being killed?". As he vould not have tried to have a killer evicted as an alternative to himself, ve must conclude zat had ve listened to him, he vould have steered us to an innocent victim. So vy not concentrate on Choey as ze plausible alternative? She vas, as ozers have said, ze plausible alternative to him. If she is innocent, vy not endorse Zapaterietxe's suspicions und try to target her?
Instead he nominated Ios. Ze qvestion for me is vether, at zis point, Ja'ayem had given up hope? Did he think ve might lynch Ios? Zat seems unlikely - neither of ze known innocents looked as if ze vould evict her, und ve (ze innocents) vould never have ignored both Zapaterietxe und John, because mathematically ve could not have won any vote against united guilty opposition vith two innocents in disagreement. So I am thinking zat Ios vas not a nomination vith any prospect of leading to her death, und Ja'ayem knew zis. It does not mean zat she is definitely innocent, if I am right. If zere vas no real risk of Ja'ayem's accusation leading to her death, zere is no reason vy he should not have nominated somevun he knew vas guilty.
Vell, zere vas vun, vich is zat if ve suppose Ios to be guilty, ze killers, not knowing zat Ja'ayem vas ze sympathiser, vould certainly have voted to lynch him, vunce he accused her. So naming a guilty person as his suspect increases ze risk to Ja'ayem. But if he had entirely abandoned hope of survival, zen zat risk could be discounted. Und ve know he gave up hope at ze end.
But I am not sure he vas not still struggling ven he nominated her. In vich case, ze nomination suggest zat she is innocent. If so, zat brings me back to ze thought zat if he vas struggling against fate, vy not attack Choey? Zat vas a better play zan Ios, unless Choey is guilty. So nominating Ios could have been a bluff. I do not think zis is more likely zan Ios being innocent, by any means (und in her position, I vould argue ze nomination as evidence of innocence) but I could not discount ze possibility zat it vas done to mislead. Ze practice of 'misleading', of course, includes ze double bluff as vell as ze bluff.
Ze only ozer thing is ze reason for Ja'ayem's confession. Vy? Zapaterietxe vas still to vote, und favoured Choey, und ze could still have had ze votes to evict her if he could be persvaded to argue for it. Ze chance vas slim, but it vas zere, vereas confessing gave him no chance at all. Vas Ja'ayem vorried zat ze killers vould give zemselves avay by not voting for him, und his suicidal vote vas a vay of making zeirs unnecessary? But if so, zat vould assume zat he thought zey knew who he vas, und zere is no evidence of zat.
Overall, I think zat Ja'ayem steering us avay from Choey und Hophtrig (mostly Choey) is ze best lead ve have for vat to do next.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
The leads Hophtrig can see.
Hophtrig chose not to vote for someone we found was guilty. Hophtrig was also saved by the suicide of a naughty.
Otto seemed to be cleared by someone we found was naughty.
Choey seemed to be saved by the sacrifice of a naughty.
Hophtrig could have been a mistake on Hophtrig's part, that and the clearing by a naughty could have been saving someone else, or a bluff.
Otto could have been a bluff.
Choey could have been saving another or a bluff.
This is a challenge. Hophtrig is having trouble getting his brain round this. Hophtrig thinks he will try and find the question for 42 again, far easier.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Partridge pretends to have a broken wing. Limps along, leading fox away from nest.
Second partridge, second fox. Second Partridge pretends to have broken wing. Limps away. Second Fox has become wise to Partridge ways, and instead of following partridge looks in spot that partridge seems to be trying to decoy fox from. Discovers that Second Partridge has double bluffed Second Fox, and left a nuclear bomb in nest. Eggs are elsewhere.
Which Partridge is Ja'ayem?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
More explicitly, and in answer to Codine, what if Ja'ayem's main goal is not so much to get Choey lynched, as to decoy our attention? Choey (and/or Hophtrig) getting lynched would be a consequence, but if Ja'ayem's running the deceit I'm wondering about, that's not the core of the scheme.
Suppose Ja'ayem gets killed (lynched is OK, murdered is even better). We will all go rushing to see who he cleared vs. who he mistrusted in John's Game of Name Three Suspects. Oh look, he says he trusts Choey and Hophtrig. We all go haring off after Choey and Hophtrig, when what we should be doing is saying this: "we found the Sympathizer among the three where Eliabulon suggested we would find the Sympathizer. Let's consider all the candidates equally again, and figure out where to hunt next."
In this deceit, it's perfectly fine for the Sympathiser is not recognized by the murderous Possessed. The Sympathizer's role here would not be to survive to the end and provide an extra vote. The role would be to provide a cast-iron cover for the Possessed, and that cover depends on the Sympathiser being found out.
Or is it just me who thinks this?
[ 31. March 2014, 03:05: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Sorry, should be "Or is it just me who thinks like this?"
[ 31. March 2014, 03:15: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
As I am innocent, this brings me back to looking hard at Hophtrig again. One or both of us are being thoroughly set up, and we will not know exactly who until the morning. There is little else to do but wait for the next victim to be revealed, and hope the innocents can vote effectively once more.
Choey shuddered and shut her eyes again. She really hoped the majority would get it right tomorrow.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
It looks like a real setup to Hophtrig, too. Hophtrig seriously hopes it's both of us being set up, not just one, for if it is just one either Hophtrig or Hophtrig's first good friend on this bus is naughty. But if we've both been set up, and one of us gets thrown and proven innocent, none of our friends will know whether both were set up, or just the one of us who got thrown.
Hophtrig's brain is sore from all this thinking, can Hophtrig hug Choey instead, Hophtrig is scared for us both.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Can Choey and Hophtrig be innocent without implicating the innocent Otto? And Ios as well? The FBC and Otto want to know. They are frightened also.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig does not want to implicate Otto, either. Nor Ios, John or Zapaterietxe, who Hophtrig thinks have been certainly cleared. Hophtrig is not that keen on implicating Codine or the Graffin, Ekaterina either. And Choey, Hophtrig doesn't want to implicate Choey either.
Hophtrig feels like Hophtrig is stuck between a rock and a place which isn't all that soft. Hophtrig thinks Hophtrig's fellow good passengers are not in a much nicer situation either. Otto is welcome to a Hophtrig hug, too, as is Squeezy.
[ETA a forgotten Choey, very sorry, Choey]
[ 31. March 2014, 04:56: Message edited by: Alban ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
[cross posted with Hophtrig]
From Ios' point of view (*), if Ja'ayem is Second Partridge, then the eggs are hidden among Eliabulon, Codine, and Otto. Sorry, Otto. If you know you're Innocent, than it's just Ekiabulon and Codine, or add Ios to those two for consideration, not that adding me in will get you very far in explaining anything, since I'm Innocent.
Or maybe Ja'ayem is First Partridge, and at least one of Choey and/or Hophtrig is Possessed.
The problem I have with Otto being Possessed is that means the Reppik Tew vote had at least two nominees out of three who were Possessed. The Possessed must have been either shitting bricks, or cackling with glee over their fiendish plot to completely mess with the minds of the bus passengers.
Actually, so far it's just the non-murderous Possessed who we know have been messing with our minds: Innocent Joostein, and Sympathiser Ja'ayem. Do we have any indications of anyone else on this bus trying to mess with our minds?
(*) Innocent, but I would say that in any case of course.
[ 31. March 2014, 05:06: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by no prophet:
Can Choey and Hophtrig be innocent without implicating the innocent Otto? And Ios as well? The FBC and Otto want to know. They are frightened also.
Otto, why did you not even mention two key possibilities here?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ios is going in circles. Nothing makes sense. Or rather, nothing leads to any certain, or even moderately sure, conclusions. Ios decides to give up trying to make any sense of anything for the next two hours. She expects that in two hours the voice of the Absolute will speak to the Assembled Beings and Dimthing Day Five will begin with the revelation of the currently missing scrap of information: who the Possessed have targeted on Dimthing Night Four.
[ 31. March 2014, 06:18: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
Alright, back from reconsidering some ancient vehicular engineering; primitive though it may be now, there were some interesting things done with carbon fibers in the days of yore. They've been a bit all-consuming, but here are a few minor thoughts:
1. Everything I've ever said about Choey during the past few days still holds.
2. Everything I've never said about Hophtrig the past few days does as well. Pointing out how guilty you look is an interesting defense, one that did, as best I can tell, kick off a main branch of Terran philosophy, but I'm not sure how well it works here.
3. Everything I've thought about Codine, summarized: if he's guilty, we'd never know until it's too late. Subtle, not especially suspicious looking, and effective.
4. Everything seems to be looking better for Otto, though I do still have my doubts.
Current most likely scenario: Choey and Hophtrig, with Choey playing a sacrifice game, Hophtrig playing along by making himself look guilty; we lynch H, C points to this as "proof" of the innocence she's been claiming all along, we then lynch the innocent Codine, then the Grafinn, she gets off free.
Playing the odds: We have a pool of 4 suspects, 2 of whom are guilty. Even shooting blindly, we have a 50/50 shot of getting one tomorrow. If we miss, it turns to 2 out of 3; a hit, 1 in 3, but information enough to (hopefully) let us take out the next one, along with a chance to get it right at 1 in 2. Still scary, but increasingly in our favor.
Most suspicious of: odd conspiracy theories (the Possessed hate females?), odd defense strategies, odd evasions of repeated questions, odd requests that we follow anyone who's not actively accusing the requester, odd beings acting oddly.
Perfectly normal: nothing.
In need of: a conscious being who reveals our own consciousnesses to each other fully and equally, with each actively for themselves, the other likewise—thus negating the fact of the Possessed's self-certainty realized and made actual in the seemingly non-essential and insignificant selves of the innocent, who are bound through their fear, not just of this or that particular thing or at odd moments, but a dread that seizes the whole being—for it is the fear of death, the Absolute Lord, shaking everything solid and stable to its foundations. Or something like that.
[ 31. March 2014, 06:41: Message edited by: Ariston ]
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
However guilty Hophtrig might look...
However much Hophtrig tries to be objective when making his assessments, Hophtrig would like this to be perfectly clear...
Hophtrig is good!
However much things might look bad for Hophtrig...
Hophtrig is not naughty!
Hophtrig only wants to solve this dilemma.
Hophtrig has not been taken over by a naughty entity, Hophtrig is, plain and simple, innocent.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
Dimthing Tours are pleased to announce that nobody has died in the night. Have a Nice Day. Nominations please.
[ 31. March 2014, 07:15: Message edited by: Dafyd ]
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig is both pleased and distressed at this news.
Hophtrig is glad none of Hophtrig's friends have died tonight.
Hophtrig is distressed that most of us, apart from Doctor John and the naughties have learnt nothing. Hophtrig will be listening hard to Doctor John, who will have learnt something.
This gets no easier.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
I am extremely glad we have not lost another innocent overnight.
So either the possessed targeted the doctor in the hope he was protecting someone else, or the doctor DID protect another innocent person, and chose wisely.
If the doctor managed to choose and protect another innocent, then it would be beneficial to the rest of the innocent passengers on board to know who that is, so we don't nominate them for engine retrieval.
The only other way we might not have lost anyone is if the mafia failed to agree on a target, or chose not to pick one in order to maximise the mayhem today. So I am hoping John can enlighten us.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig is not clever enough to suggest what Doctor John should, or should not do.
If Doctor John wants to tell us what Doctor John is doing at night, it is Doctor John's choice.
Doctor John knows how much help it will be to his friends, and how much danger it will put Doctor John in.
Hophtrig thinks Doctor John can decide to do whatever Doctor John thinks is the best thing to do. Hophtrig does not want to give instructions to any of Hophtrig's friends (even the instruction "give no instructions"), Hophtrig is not the cleverest of beings.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
My gut feeling is that talking about it will a) not tell us anything of value, and b) get someone innocent killed tonight. Because it will c) hamper my abilities tonight.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
If nothing of value has been learned, then we are simply back to wondering which two passengers seem most suspicious, and which two might be working together.
Some of you have suggested Hophtrig and I are colluding. Only I know that this is not the case. This leads me to ask if Hophtrig could be working with Codine or perhaps the Grafinn? Or could Codine be working with someone else?
I do not know how we can work out a high probability of guilt this round without further insight.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Expanding on Choey's question, and considering a series of possibilities that I am looking at sequentially:
What case can be made that the two remaining Possessed are Choey and Hophtrig?
What case can be made that Choey is Possessed and Hophtrig Innocent, and if so, who is the other Possessed?
What case can be made that Hophtrig is Possessed and Choey Innocent, and if so, who is the other Possessed?
What case can be made that the two Possessed are neither Choey nor Hophtrig, and instead lie in the set {Codine, Eliabulon, Ios, Otto}? I list us alphabetically. Strike out any names that you know are Innocent; for example I can consider just {Eliabulon, Codine, Otto}.
I hope for discussion of these possibilities from the Assembled Beings.
I will add any thoughts I may have -- so far I've only just now come up with the idea of examining possibilities in these categories.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
There are 8 of us left. How many mistakes can we afford to make? Has the failure of last night's murder attempt bought us an extra mistake we can afford to make?
(Not that I want us to make mistakes, because I don't want to enter the white-knuckle territory of having used all our mistakes and not being able to make any more mistakes at all.)
[ 31. March 2014, 13:25: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
I do not know how we can work out a high probability of guilt this round without further insight.
This may well be true. I would like us to surface the most information possible this round.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Expanding on Choey's question, and considering a series of possibilities that I am looking at sequentially:
What case can be made that the two remaining Possessed are Choey and Hophtrig?
What case can be made that Choey is Possessed and Hophtrig Innocent, and if so, who is the other Possessed?
What case can be made that Hophtrig is Possessed and Choey Innocent, and if so, who is the other Possessed?
What case can be made that the two Possessed are neither Choey nor Hophtrig, and instead lie in the set {Codine, Eliabulon, Ios, Otto}? I list us alphabetically. Strike out any names that you know are Innocent; for example I can consider just {Eliabulon, Codine, Otto}.
I hope for discussion of these possibilities from the Assembled Beings.
I will add any thoughts I may have -- so far I've only just now come up with the idea of examining possibilities in these categories.
An excellent set of questions.
If I were to nominate Choey at the moment, it would be largely based on Zapaterietxe's previous work (as was my nomination of Reppik on the second day). I am most suspicious of her, and I cannot word my suspicions and questions any better than Zapa already has.
As for a case for both Hophtrig and Choey, my best answer is that her constant yammering to have him evicted (backed up by a vote only on the second day) is perfect cover for evil collusion. In addition, Hophtrig is in a tenuous position of his own, and he may be deemed innocent or guilty on his own account, rather than through his association with Choey. In other words, if she were to be lynched and found guilty, he is not automatically cleared.
If one is possessed and the other isn't, my first guess for the second would be Otto. However, Codine isn't out of the running; he would be the secretive one we wouldn't discover until too late.
Could they be Codine, Eliablulon, and/or Otto? It is possible. I want to remove the Grafinn from this group based on my understanding of her responses. I'm fairly certain now that Joostein's vendetta was based on misunderstanding instead of a real insight. Unfortunately, that day of arguing and false claims ended up causing us great harm, and I lay the blame squarely on my own shoulders. But I will deal with that once we're all safe.
So then, Codine and Otto? I don't have a good case on Codine. Otto hasn't looked very good all along, and is still in the mix. If I were to rate them in order of how much I suspect them, I would go: Choey, Otto, Hophtrig, Codine.
I think that the Grafinn is right about the "females get killed" thing -- it's probably a case of mistaking correlation and causation, although it's possible that it's a bluff of some sort.
I think it's interesting that both Choey and Hophtrig are alive this morning. It has been pointed out that their death by mafia would screw with our suspicions, assuming both are innocent. That is another reason to think one or both is guilty.
And finally, to answer your question on mistakes: There are eight of us, two of whom are possessed. If we lynch one possessed today, it is 6-1 going into the night. If an innocent is killed overnight, then it is 5-1 tomorrow. If we get a possessed today I believe we can make one mistake before we're in crunch time. Getting the sympathizer yesterday helps us, though not as much as getting a possessed would have.
If we lynch an innocent today and lose another overnight, we will be 4-2 tomorrow and can afford no mistakes. So while we don't win or lose today, it is a pivotal day. Choose well, my friends.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Codine bows. I have prepared a few thoughts. I'm not sure if there is anything of value in them, but a good servant does not waste work when he can help it, so since I have written them out, I will share them:
"I am still pondering Ja'ayem's behavior, but trying not to read too much into it. As Ios has noted, sometimes people do things for different reasons than we'd do ourselves, and sometimes one doesn't understand just because one thinks differently. Still, it does point suspicion.
Honestly, I think we should try to conclude something from the lack of death last night. We have to be careful not to conclude too much, and we don't want to reveal our doctor's future thinking, but within those lines... For the purpose of this, I'm going to presume each person was not protected although clearly someone (the right someone) was. Still, I don't want to ask who was protected, so:
If Hophtrig or Chooey had died: We would have known that at least that person was died, and I think it might have made the other one look more innocent too. (Not sure?) So were the Mafia avoiding helping us identify innocents or were they not killing each other?
If Ios had died: She's an assumed innocent so might have been a relatively safe target for the Possessed. On the other hand perhaps more likely to be protected than non-known innocents.
If the Graffin had died: Same as above; she's an assumed innocent so might have been a relatively safe target for the Possessed. On the other hand perhaps more likely to be protected than non-known innocents.
If Zapa had died: As a known innocent, I'm sure the mob would love to get him, but he's an obvious possible target to protect.
If I, Codine had died: It would prove my innocence, so would not be particularly appealing perhaps. On the other hand, I was pretty surely not protected, so it would have perhaps advanced their case further than whatever they did last night. Throws guilt on remaining questionables--unless we're assuming an innocent wrongly, of course--maybe especially Choey since I'm suspicious of her?
If Otto had died: I've left him last, because he's still the person I'm the least sure about. What would it tell us if he'd died? I guess it would make the other questionables look more guilty in general, but I don't know who's guilt in particular would be highlighted. He still isn't giving us anything to go on, which makes me want to lynch him, but is perhaps not a good enough reason."
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
quote:
Originally posted by no prophet:
Can Choey and Hophtrig be innocent without implicating the innocent Otto? And Ios as well? The FBC and Otto want to know. They are frightened also.
Otto, why did you not even mention two key possibilities here?
Otto was wondering just about these two when he posted about them. Otto frankly would vote for any one who looked the most guilty, but there is so little to go on. Otto would start with everyone as a potential suspect, as in everyone, and vote for the one about whom there was the most evidence. He has more feelings than facts about all of it frankly, and the FBC is rather quiet this morning amid the -21°C snowy weather Otto's fictitious friend is experiencing.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig wonders if someone has stolen the waste receptacle from the sanitary facilities. There truly is nothing to go on.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto says to Hophtrig that yes, there is somethings to go on, but just not a lot of very clear somethings, even when you are looking through your eyesglasses with as much concentration as you can. Some helpful friends and enemies (which some of them must be because some of them are Bad Ones), so maybe they are enefriends or frienemies, have noted for us that various passengers seem to be quirky quarks. Which means that they showed things about themselves that makes others think they are baddies. But its not a lot to go one for sure.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
@Hophtrig:
We'll never be able to lynch you. We'll be laughing too hard to bundle you out the airlock.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
The only other way we might not have lost anyone is if the mafia [...] chose not to pick one in order to maximise the mayhem today.
Zis has been known in ze past, but zere it vas to support a false claim to be a doctor. Zat does not apply here.
For ze killers to have chosen not to kill, vould require zem to think zat John vould be protecting a guilty person, who he vould zen assumed he had saved, and zerefore conclude vas innocent. Zat seems unlikely. I zerefore assume zat John did save somevun last night, und concur vith his thinking zat nothing more needs to be said on ze subject unless he thinks it vould help.
Except, of course, to say "Vell done".
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Graffin, though you are far cleverer than Hophtrig, Hophtrig can think of another scenario.
Could it be that the naughties see the good people sufficiently confused and sufficiently pointing themselves in the wrong direction that they thought a murder would shake things up and cause a rethinking, so left it alone for the night.
If that was the way, I think the naughties would have underestimated the friends on this bus, who are going to think very hard about every possibility.
That said, Doctor John has proven himself to be clever in the past, so the idea that he chose the right person to save is quite believable, too.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
I am thinking about today's vote.
Otto almost looked as if he might start contributing some thoughts at ze end of yesterday. But I am not hopeful zat zis is a trend. I actually find it hard to believe zat somevun guilty could be so consistently und stubbornly unhelpful as Otto has been. It vould be ze greatest bluff ever if he vas. I could, just about, have believed zat ze sympathiser might act zat vay, but ve know zat he is not ze sympathiser.
Ios I have spoken about last night. If Ja'ayem vas genuinely trying to lynch her, she is innocent. If he vas not (und I suspect not) zen his nomination of her vas a ploy to mislead. Ze trouble is, it is just as plausible to suppose he nominated a guilty companion to make them appear to be his enemy, as it is to suppose he nominated an innocent person thinking ve vould assume zat he vas trying to play us. I can't find a reason to accuse Ios, but I vould caution against assuming she could not be guilty. She is devious enough zat she will act innocently, vatever her real allegiance.
Codine also. She is acting exactly as I vould expect her to act if innocent. Und zat is very, very close to how I vould expect her to act if guilty. Again, I have no positive reason to suspect her, but vould not discount her.
I am not sure vat to make of her discussion of last night's attempted kill. I don't think zat her discussion helps ze killers directly (zey already know who zey tried to kill, und vy) but ze risk is zat John might be drawn into telling us something of his thinking, und zat might help ze enemy predict his next move. So I think zis vas unhelpful of her. But I also think zat a killer is unlikely to discuss ze matter after John's veto. Vy disagree vith a known innocent und draw attention to vunself, if vun is trying to be subtle? Und Codine is subtle - vich suggests zat she vas thinking more about thinking zan about seeming. A guilty Codine vould be thinking about seeming.
Choey und Hophtrig appear to be ze vuns Ja'ayem tried to shield. Ios speculates zat Ja'ayem's whole plan vas to be caught. I dount zis. Firstly, it is at odds vith his own assessment of ze value of ze sympathiser, und second, at zis stage ze Possessed can afford losses even less zan ve can. So I think zat at ze start, Ja'ayem vas trying to live. Ven zat seemed hopeless, I am sure he vould zen have sought to mislead, but I do not think zat vas all his plan. Zerefore I think ze ease vith vich he could have made ze contest between himself und Choey, und ze fact zat he did not, are clues. Better zan anything else I see.
It is possible zat my instinctive trust of Hophtrig vas misplaced. All ze same, I cannot see a reason to accuse him.
In all, apart from ze three people of whose innocence I am assured, I find four zat I vish to trust, und vould struggle to justify accusing. Und Choey. Vith ze caveat zat I am unlikely to vote in opposition to our known innocents unless convinced zat zey are making a mistake, I am inclined to nominate her.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alban:
Graffin, though you are far cleverer than Hophtrig, Hophtrig can think of another scenario.
Could it be that the naughties see the good people sufficiently confused and sufficiently pointing themselves in the wrong direction that they thought a murder would shake things up and cause a rethinking, so left it alone for the night.
I think zis is unlikely. I think zat ze fact zat our analysis ... by vich I mean, my analysis ... about ze actions of ze sympathiser vas so entirely accurate zat ze killers are unlikely to have thought zat ve vere all safely misguided.
Also I think zat vichever vay zey vished to guide us, zere vould have been safe murders to attempt. But on zat, I think ve should respect John's view zat speculating about who exactly vas targeted und vy is more likely to assist zem zan us.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto thinking and thinking.
Codine:
Otto asked himself and the FBC and could not come up with much. Friend of Ios it seems.
Zapa:
innocent unreadable.
John:
being a doctor and good.
Hophtrig:
under suspicion for voting patterns. Trying not to take it personally that Hophtrig is going after Otto both in the past and presently. This makes Otto sad about Hophtrig, because Otto has not given Hophtrig cause, not at the start, and then Hophtrig kept building a case about Otto, which now Otto (sober and not hungry) sees as a way of trying to pin something on Otto. Otto being Hophtrig's target because Otto is a happy and unusual being, and the most similar to Hophtrig. Hophtrig hiding with Innocent Otto.
Eliabulon:
The Grafinn seemed to be in alliance with Hophtrig at the beginning but Otto did not see this taken up again. If Hophtrig is bad, and then Eliabulon detected this and distanced herself, or, if this was a masking of their secret Bad One Alliance (or Bad Two Alliance Otto should say), this is pretty fancy stuff. Otto thinks this is lower likelihood. And the FBC wags its feathery tail in agreement.
Choey:
seems like a Good One and Good Friend because likes Otto, but Bad Ones might dress in Good One space suits and tango dancing outfits. Mostly it seems that Choey would be innocent to Otto.
Ios:
seems to have offered no suspicion to Otto. Trying to sequence something however, which may point in a direction. Was it Otto that first became good friends with Ios or did Hophtrig. If Otto did first, then Hophtrig tagged along. This makes Otto suspect Hophtrig a little more. But if Otto made friendsies to Ios after Hophtrig this reasoning would implicate Otto, except that Otto knows he is innocent.
Otto shrugs his 3 shoulders, scratches 2 of his 3 backs himself, and the FBC scratches the third one. He taps his head. Listens to the beats of his hearts, and realizes there's a syncopation going on. He feels a song coming. It seems to have a bit of a minor key, though a lot like the Earth song "The Saints Go Marchin' In". Just sadder. Otto started to sing, and on the second way through he remembered that he had a flute and he played along the melody while imagining his voice singing the words. He wishes he had more than one mouth so he could sing and play as he tapped his 3 legs along to the time, and his hearts did a metronome beat.
♫ Otto wonders if Hophtrig's the one
Otto wonders about the second
Oh Dimthing Bus, Otto has 3 leggies
Otto is a bit confused ♫
♪♪ Otto does not know 'bout number 2
Otto asks the FBC
He still thinks about the Grafinn
He wonders 'bout the G and H thing
And thinks it probly wrong ♪♫
Otto feels uneasy about Codine
there's not too much to say-ay
Otto almost taking drugs now
the FBC not sure either ♪♪♪
Otto didn't make a verse about Ios. Maybe should if Codine and Ios are Too Good As Friends? Oh Otto doesn't know. Tries to know, but no-no.
Thinks even more and says to the FBC rather quietly. The pairings seems to answer a little bit. Ios and Choey. Hophtrig and the Grafinn. Maybe though the Secret Saver Of Lives is Choey?
Back to singing. But not dancing tonight. Otto feeling edgy and singing his fears now.
[ 31. March 2014, 22:00: Message edited by: no prophet ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ios is watching and wondering today at all that is going on. Why does Otto think I'm a friend of Codine?
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Ios is watching and wondering today at all that is going on. Why does Otto think I'm a friend of Codine?
The FBC helpded Otto find this:
quote:
page 8 - Codine says she thinks Ios is Innocent. If Codine is Possessed, she has just slyly appealed to Ios' sinful pride in a subtle way which will convince Ios for a long time that Codine must be innocent. (Currently, Ios has absolutely no idea any more.)
From heres.
Otto thinks it is not much to go on. And tells the FBC "go on! you silly feather friend!"
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig has been thinking strange thoughts.
If Hophtrig is naughty, then Hophtrig's nomination of Otto was not a mistake, it was an attempt to divert attention from the naughty Reppik, and thus save Reppik's life.
If Hophtrig was naughty then, the fact that Hophtrig has not been nominating lately suggests the good people are looking in the wrong place and Hophtrig is not trying to save anyone.
Unless a naughty Hophtrig is trying to trick everyone, especially if Hophtrig says something like Hophtrig is saying here.
Hophtrig still says Hophtrig is good. Hophtrig says Hophtrig stopped nominating to let cleverer people make cleverer suggestions than Hophtrig could. Hophtrig just thinks strange thoughts sometimes, and Hophtrig cannot resist opening his Hophtrig mouth and sharing his thoughts with his friends.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
Alright, let's see how far Hophtrig's big mouth opens. Why do you keep laying out scenarios in which you look guilty, while any rational being would try to show their innocence? If you're not guilty, then tell us who is—both of them. If you are guilty, who's your accomplice? I want to hear you work through this.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig has no clue who is naughty, Hophtrig really doesn't. Maybe because Hophtrig is worried about people accusing Hophtrig, Hophtrig thinks too much about the ways people might accuse Hophtrig. Hophtrig will talk through Hophtrig's thoughts about how each of Hophtrig's friends on board could be guilty.
Codine: Codine keeps fairly quiet, but recently engaged Hophtrig in conversation about Ios' theories. If Codine is naughty, Codine is hiding in plain sight, watching nasty plans unfold. If Codine was Hophtrig's accomplice, Hophtrig and Codine are working together to obfuscate theories by discussing them to death.
Zapaterietxe: Zapaterietxe provides good amounts of analysis. Zapaterietxe has claimed to be the innocent unreadable, which makes no difference now that the detectives are gone. No-one has bothered to counter this claim, for fear that would make them look guilty. If Zapaterietxe is naughty, his analysis is so clever that no good people have noticed vital points he has missed (no Hophtrig cannot name such points, in this theory, Hophtrig is either too clever or too naughty to name or disclose). If Zapaterietxe is Hophtrig's accomplice, Zapaterietxe has been saying Hophtrig doesn't look naughty, then that Hophtrig's strategy would be insane for a naughty one which leads the good friends away from Hophtrig.
The Graffin, Ekaterina. The Graffin is, as is Zapaterietxe, an undisputed genius. The Graffin is also analytical, but analyses with an accent, which makes the Graffin's analysis a little harder to understand - the Graffin's analysis may be as flawed as Zapaterietxe's was in the last scenario. If the Graffin is working with a naughty Hophtrig, then the Graffin is playing a similar strategy to Hophtrig, point out Hophtrig's naughtiness, but then list someone else, Choey, as naughtier, so if a naughty Hophtrig gets thrown the Graffin does not look naughty, as the Graffin "told you so".
Otto: Otto keeps very quiet and provides little analysis, thus hiding Otto's true motives. If Otto is working with a naughty Hophtrig, then Otto and Hophtrig are firing counter accusations at eachother to make the reasons for nomination look more petty than serious.
Choey: Seems amiable and simple, may be secretly sinister and devious. Choey's friendly manner may
mask naughtiness. If Choey is working with a naughty Hophtrig, Choey's vendetta against Hophtrig is designed as a divide and conquer strategy to save one of them, if one gets thrown and is naughty, no-one would think Hophtrig and Choey are working together.
Ios: If Ios is naughty, Ios' analysis hides deficiencies. Ios' self professed confusion excuses these. If Ios is working with a naughty Hophtrig, Ios is using her friendship with Hophtrig to paint Hophtrig as nice, friendly and good, deflecting negative attention from Hophtrig, as such attention is no longer on Ios.
John: If John is naughty, John has been exceptionally lucky that Crimson alluded to John as Crimson did. John is also lucky that the real doctor has not challenged John's claim to be a doctor, possibly in fear for their life. If John is working with a naughty Hophtrig, John is using John's trusted status to steer votes away from Hophtrig.
How was that, Zapaterietxe, has Hophtrig helped?
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey finds it interesting that there has only been one nomination so far, despite several passengers expressing their doubts about Codine. The opaque servant of the dark Lord was on my alarmingly suspicious list alongside Hophtrig, and I probably need to add the Grafinn to that list now that she has led the charge to have me thrown off the bus. Perhaps Lady Celandine's final words need re-examining.
I did consider not nominating anyone at all, but figured that would be interpreted as the action of a guilty and resigned mafioso. Nominating Codine will no doubt bring a heap of accusations down upon me too, as I am perceived as being guilty by almost all of those left on this tour. You will soon discover that I come from a truthful species, and I sincerely want the innocents to win. To that end, I will vote after John again, even if this is to my detriment.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alban:
How was that, Zapaterietxe, has Hophtrig helped?
I can't speak for Zapaterietxe, but yes, this has been helpful. You've done a great job telling us how you could be guilty.
Hophtrig, how do you plead?
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
...and I probably need to add the Grafinn to that list now that she has led the charge to have me thrown off the bus.
And yet you don't say the same about Zapaterietxe, who has been on your case for several days now. Nor I, who has had you on the suspicious list just as long, if not longer.
You refuse to answer simple, reasonable questions. You look suspicious to the four known innocents. Honestly, if the Grafinn hadn't nominated you, Zapaterietxe might have, and if not he, then I. Of the four suspects, you seem like the one most likely to be possessed.
I've nominated Hophtrig, but I haven't made my final decision yet. As far as I'm concerned, things just got interesting.
[ 01. April 2014, 11:14: Message edited by: Barefoot Friar ]
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
As far as I'm concerned, things just got interesting.
Good, because for the rest of us consigned to just reading the thread, everyone's been going round and round in tentative "logic based but trying not to look too suspicous" circles for far too long.
[ 01. April 2014, 12:32: Message edited by: Wet Kipper ]
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Codine raises an eyebrow. "My master is anything but a dark lord. Rather overly pale actually as he doesn't get nearly enough sun. He is a lord though I won't recite all his titles for you as it would waste ten minutes.
Re the nomination: Honestly, it feels like an awful lot like a response nomination since I've been pondering whether Choey is guilty. I've done my best to analyze each person and try to figure out who's guilty. Surely you can find something more guilty about me (or any other innocent) than my back story or the fact that I don't tend to producing an abundance of light comments and chatter?
Re nominations, may I make my usual warning about avoiding having so many nominations that we make it easier for subtle people to split the vote?"
[ 01. April 2014, 14:11: Message edited by: Gwai ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Before saying anything on any of our nominees, I am trying to find time to work through the possible pairs for the remaining two Possessed and see if the results tell me anything. That's 10 pairs for me, given my certain knowledge of my own innocence and my trust that we don't have any lunatic Innocents clutching undeclared roles to their chest -- so John The Less and Zapaterietxe are as good as clear as Innocents also.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig alway loves to be helpful, Hophtrig does.
But maybe, John, the prizes for helpfulness should be a bit nicer. Look at that beautiful spring you have for nominating Ja'ayem.
This time round, Hophtrig has something very special for the person who nominates a naughty, once that naughty leaves the bus. It's the on button from the front console, the same On button Hophtrig and Lovely Lesley found and pushed a while ago, use it to remember Lovely Lesley.
Sadly, today, John will not be winning the prize, Hophtrig hopes someone does.
Hophtrig explained why Hophtrig nominated Otto. Hophtrig suggested Otto from the beginning and nominated and voted for Otto (sorry Otto). Hophtrig missed Reppik Tew when Hophtrig did this. Hophtrig has realised how blinkered Hophtrig was, and is trying to listen to the clever ones now, not to push Hophtrig's own thinking, which hasn't worked out too well. Hophtrig has spent this trip trying to be helpful. Hophtrig has voiced Hophtrig's thoughts, Hophtrig has voiced even the impossible scenarios, so Hophtrig's friends could look at them more easily. Hophtrig has not done anything sneaky, bad or naughty. Hophtrig loves all Hophtrig's friends, those we have lost, and those who are still on this bus with Hophtrig.
Hophtrig has a big Hophtrig hug for you, John, and for everyone, Choey, Ios, the Graffin, Otto, Codine (but not for Zapaterietxe, as incorporeal beings have not much to hug).
Hophtrig imagines Reppik Tew (Hophtrig almost felt Reppik tangibly in the air) and Ja'ayem watching over us and laughing at all the friends' confusion. If Hophtrig has made us more confused, Hophtrig is sorry.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto asks a question. Our we doubly and triply sure that claimed roles for John and Zapa are true?
Otto asks another question. Are we being led to suspect Hophtrig truly or falsely?
Otto asks also, if anything about question 2 applies to Choey and Codine? Or Grafinn for that matter.
Otto then asks if we are into a guessing game.
Posted by Starbug (# 15917) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Wet Kipper:
Good, because for the rest of us consigned to just reading the thread, everyone's been going round and round in tentative "logic based but trying not to look too suspicous" circles for far too long.
Amen.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
...and I probably need to add the Grafinn to that list now that she has led the charge to have me thrown off the bus.
And yet you don't say the same about Zapaterietxe, who has been on your case for several days now. Nor I, who has had you on the suspicious list just as long, if not longer.
You refuse to answer simple, reasonable questions. You look suspicious to the four known innocents. Honestly, if the Grafinn hadn't nominated you, Zapaterietxe might have, and if not he, then I. Of the four suspects, you seem like the one most likely to be possessed.
I've nominated Hophtrig, but I haven't made my final decision yet. As far as I'm concerned, things just got interesting.
Please advise me of the "simple reasonable questions" I have not answered. I have explained my actions all along. The fact that my explanations have not been accepted is not from want of trying on my side, dumb though I may be.
No, I did not nominate you or Zapatarietxe, because you two, if you care to refer to my list of suspicious passengers, are on the "Generally accepted to be innocent" side, even though you have both declared you neither trust nor like me. You may find this hard to believe, but I do not want an innocent passenger to be tossed off this bus. I did not nominate Otto or Ios because they are on my "probably innocent" list. The two who were on my "alarmingly suspicious" list were Hophtrig and Codine. Had I nominated Hophtrig, everyone would simply have voted for me, as Hophtrig is a much more likeable character. Amusing, distracting, and still highly suspicious; if he is mafia, he is doing a brilliant job. In a head to head against him, I know I would lose.
I did not wish to be the only nominee, so I targetted the other passenger on my "alarmingly suspicious" list. Codine has only recently begun to talk. It would be good for Codine to talk more. If I am uncertain of how to vote when voting time comes, or there has been a certain majority against me, I will simply vote TESS. But I will wait for John and Zapatarietxe to lead the charge, so you may be certain I am not trying to split the vote, or lead others away from an individual.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto wants to make sure we are not led down the garden path by our thinking into nominating a wrong one or voting for a wrong one. Otto thinks the FBC has narrowed it down to 2 possible Bad Ones.
But Otto is hesitant to cast the first vote.
Which is a parable from Planet 11, rather about fishing, which everyone knows is symbolic and not just about fishing. And casting the first line, and how only those who've never eaten fish should cast the first line, and they can eat loaves instead. But some aspects of said parable are confused in Otto's brains (he has 2½ brains) because he was considering the other famous Planet 11 speech about Blessed are the Square Dancers because they have sharp corners. Which of course means really all dancers, and some even include musicians and those who don't dance and just clap time, and even others include those who've never danced and don't even know what dancing is. But we should try to keep in time and dance together with all dancers even if they don't have sharp corners because charity and kindness is something that there's just too little of, and what the world needs now is love sweet love. Etc.
Let Otto know if he should comment more about which two he thinks of just now. The FBC has said he should be brave, because apparently there is a peanut gallery which likes Action. And the FBC likes peanuts.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ios would like to know what Otto thinks. Or Ios could just sit here and watch the FBC photosynthesize and wave in the breeze (Dimthing Tours apparently provide all mod cons on their buses, including breezes. Very nice.)
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto has thought even more. He thinks the list is Hophtrig and Choey, with a weird but incomplete feeling about Codine. He feels more certain about Ios' goodness than Codine's.
The FBC has told Otto that the Grafinn is in the backgound just now, and Otto has only the idea that the FBC is intuitive about this with only a feeling to guide it. If the results of the pontifications and singing result in unexpected results, Otto may have dance and really tank up on raisins.
Otto has also received a notification that on Thurs and Friday, he may be a little busy because his boring real life friend has to travel for another medical test about 1½ hours away and maybe has to stay in a bed not his own and get another test after that and hopefully nothing cut off or out on the basis of that! So Otto is sort of hurrying his discussion along to be a good fellow traveller in this rather difficult to see where we are headed bus trip just now.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
The Geists are right; we're going in circles, second-guessing ourselves, and getting nowhere. One really good "we screwed up," and we're too afraid to actually stand by our convictions? Even I've turned scared and uncertain.
Remember, we've only lynched someone innocent once.
So, let's have it out: that Choey looks guilty is something we agree on. Her only defense, the only reason we're hesitating, is that we could be wrong. Yes, of course we could be. There are three creatures in the dock, and not more than two of them could possibly be Possessed. Just from that alone, one of them has to be innocent—there is at least one wrong choice there.
But appearances, the evidence, are all we have to judge by. So, no more timidity. No more second guessing. Choey, I've maintained for several days and nights that you're guilty, and I've yet to see a proper refutation; for starters, try the questions I mentioned here for about the umpteenth time, questions that you characterized as "filibustering." I also note that Ja'ayem's group of possible Possessed contained neither you nor Hophtrig—which might be evidence of his guilt, perhaps, but not of your innocence. I also look at your "well, I suppose the accusations against a fellow innocent are going to come at me" act as an attempt to stifle discussion.
So today, I'm following my conviction; no more distractions, no more waffling. It's time to show you the airlock.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Choey levered her enormous hindquarters out of the seat and loped delicately down to the airlock.
She pulled a large cake box and an ice bucket out of her pouch, followed by a magnum of the best Australian sparkling wine, some champagne flutes and eight gold rimmed cake plates.
Then she pointed her explainiator at the ceiling. "It appears I will most likely be leaving you shortly, and so I would like us to share a last drink before I go. I raise my glass to those much cleverer than I. You have made everyone on board prefer the company of the possessed - truly masterful. May you all receive your just desserts. Black Forrest cake, anyone?"
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Codine smiles. "I could make sure I make regular daily noise at you even when I don't have any new insights, if that would make you feel safer. I don't think it would make you actually any safer though.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I found Codine's post looking at who might have been killed, to be odd.
Codine says he had already written it and didn't want it to go to waste. Why was it already written?
Codine also left John The Less off the list. Why that oversight?
One possible explanation is that (a) the Possessed targeted John last night, and were foiled; and (b) Codine is Possessed; and (c) Codine prepared the document in advance in order to be able to post it in order to seem to be like an Innocent person trying to figure things out; and (d) Codine didn't include John because he expected him to be dead; and (e) Codine forgot to add John into the document after John turned up alive.
This all depends on whether John was in fact the person protected last night.
I don't actually quite understand the embargo on simply saying who was protected last night. That's not giving the Possessed any information they don't have already -- unless we think maybe the Possessed didn't launch any attack at all last night.
If John is not the one who was protected, then my elaborate 5-point suspicion will collapse and vanish like smoke in the wind.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I've been trying to look at all the possible combinations. But it seems like it's useless. I would have to have some theory of how the Possessed would behave in order to get any traction in weighing various combinations. Unfortunately, it seems to me that many behaviors are possible.
The five possibly Possessed that I'm considering are, in no particular order, Choey, Hophtrig, Codine, Eliabulon, Otto.
I started by considering the 10 possible pairs of Possessed:
Choey, Hophtrig
Choey, Codine
Choey, Eliabulon
Choey, Otto
Hophtrig, Codine
Hophtrig, Eliabulon
Hophtrig, Otto
Codine, Eliabulon
Codine, Otto
Eliabulon, Otto
Then I thought that it was hopeless that if Eliabulon is involved I would ever catch him. So I eliminated all the pairs with Eliabulon, as being a futile time-waster for me to consider. That left me with 6 pairs:
Choey, Hophtrig
Choey, Codine
Choey, Otto
Hophtrig, Codine
Hophtrig, Otto
Codine, Otto
Then I started to examine them:
Choey-Hophtrig? But Choey led off the Reppik Tew voting with a vote against Hophtrig! How could they both be Possessed? No problem, it was a big alibi-building plot. A risky plot, but certainly possible.
Choey, Codine? Easily possible. Anything with Codine is possible if he was in reality detained at work for the Reppik Tew vote: his late vote was essentially forced for Reppik unless he wanted to really stand out.
And so on and so forth for the other pairs.
I suppose if I thought that Ja'ayem the Sympathiser wouldn't have voted to lynch a Possessed, then Otto can be removed from the lists. I'm not entirely sure I believe that, though. At this point I'm suspecting anyone and everyone of any concievable level of deception.
And if I thought that the Possessed and Sympathiser among them would not have let a vote proceed with two out of three of the nominees Possessed, but instead would have nominated an Innocent in addition, then that suggests that Otto and Hophtrig are both Innocent. That would leave the two Possessed to be found among Choey, Codine, and Eliabulon. (And if this is so, and Choey is Innocent, then it's Codine and Eliabulon, which for me is a terrifying idea.)
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
[OOC]
I'm going to be away, probably with very limited internet access, from Saturday to Wednesday (5th to 9th) and busy with work up till then. Just assume that IC Ekatarina is so shocked at seeing some actual analysis from Otto that she is temporarily speechless.
[/OOC]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Will IC Ekaterina be able to vote this Dimthing Day?
Fascinating that in ze Wrik "Grafinn" is abbreviated "IC"
.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
Nominations are closed. Voting is open.
Nominees are:
Hophtrig (Alban) nominated by John the Less.
Codine (Gwai) nominated by Cho Bacca.
Cho Bacca (Banner Lady) nominated by Eliabulon.
And No Lynching.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally spoken by Ios:
This all depends on whether John was in fact the person protected last night.
That was indeed the case. I was waiting to divulge that to see if anyone slipped.
Since I trust you, Ios, I'm applauding you for a great catch. Laissez les bon temps rouler! (French: Let the good times roll!)
[ 02. April 2014, 21:38: Message edited by: Barefoot Friar ]
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto has read his respected fellow passenger Ios' writings, and has run it all by the FBC. He thinks Ios's reasoning is rather good. But he wonders how Otto is paired up with Hophtrig as a pair of innocents when also Hophtrig has looked suspect. Otto likes (as in feels) the idea the Hophtrig is Nice. Doesn't feel completely convinced. However, if he accepted this from Ios, he would be considering casting the vote for either of Codine or Choey. Otto thinks, mostly because several bellies of raisins make him brave and he has 5 tummies, that even if the parable says that he who hasn't eaten should cast the first fishing line, that he is almost ready to be heretical against the parable and cast first.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto has taken a another bunch of raisins, juggled them and seen how many of them he will catch successfully after that. The raisins are being used by him in a game of Wang Ho, which involves assigning numerical values to raisins and then adding the assigned values together in nonlinear format as the raisins are caught, whilst putting them along a number line. Some claim this is a form of divination. Otto has always liked the catching part. So he catches them and eats them. The numerical values he assigned have led him to be confident, in a way. He says he will vote for Codine.
The FBC offers no opinion, but does offer Otto a feather to hold. So Otto holds a feather and bravely eats another raisin.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Will IC Ekaterina be able to vote this Dimthing Day?
I probably vill.
I am now thinking vether Otto is genuinely convinced by Ios's analysis of Codine's views, or trying to head off ze vote against Choey.
I vould like to hear Codine's answer to Ios before I conclude zat zis is indeed a meaningful error, because I do not expect mistakes from Codine. I think it vould be foolish to vote before hearing zis.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
I am now thinking vether Otto is genuinely convinced by Ios's analysis of Codine's views, or trying to head off ze vote against Choey.
Or the two remaining Possessed are Otto and Codine, and Otto is working to build a cast-iron claim to be Innocent.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto was convinced by Ios. The FBC said this was obvious. And the FBC quoted the famous Planet 11 saying to him "enough talk - an act!". So he did it. Otto is innocent, there's nothing Otto has done to suggest anything different is there? Otto knows he could be wrong, and if, this evening, someone told him more convincingly than Ios did, he would change his vote. Or if Ios told Otto who he should vote for, he would do it, and switchy changey. Otto also asks what you might have said it he had typed "Choey", because he very nearly did, and as he noted, it was a divination process via Wang Ho, that famous Planet 11 game, to select Codine.
(Otto is also extraneously affected in his decision to vote just now and not delay by his fako pretend persona who unfortunately has fewer stomachs and legs and has to go, as mentioned above, on a journey to get more medical testing done. Tomorrow. And may have to stay in a place much less friendly than the bus.)
[ 02. April 2014, 23:13: Message edited by: no prophet ]
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig thinks Ios was not attacking Otto when Ios made that statement, but suggesting a possibility the Graffin forgot.
Hophtrig is in favour of laying all available possibilities on the table, even if they aren't true and might harm Hophtrig, because that means those possibilities are thought about there and then, and don't suddenly appear later. When things pop up, generally someone tries to blame someone else for not mentioning them, which makes the whole thing more suspicious and dangerous.
There is definitely a Hophtrig hug here for Otto, and I think Hophtrig joins all his friends on the bus in wishing Otto's imaginary No Prophet friend all the best for the upcoming journey.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alban:
There is definitely a Hophtrig hug here for Otto, and I think Hophtrig joins all his friends on the bus in wishing Otto's imaginary No Prophet friend all the best for the upcoming journey.
Hear, hear!
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
Choey
(Friggin' finally, after all these sudden diversions)
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Cho Bacca gets my vote this round.
Ios makes a good point about Codine, but I want to think about it more.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Choey
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alban:
Hophtrig thinks Ios was not attacking Otto when Ios made that statement, but suggesting a possibility the Graffin forgot.
And it's completely terrifying to be thinking of levels of deception that apparently Eliabulon forgot. It makes me doubt the Grafinn's Innocence. Eliabulon also didn't agree with me about the level of deception that Ja'ayem might have been running, but I am not entirely convinced by Eliabulon's view.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Okay says Otto, I am good with Choey too. "The FBC and me", says Otto, "we can't actually know, but if Choey is innocent, Otto will cry, because Wang Ho told me so."
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I don't know if Otto is allowed to change his vote. But we are glad Otto is still here on the bus and not yet preoccupied with the adventures of his fictitious friend NP.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Oh Choey, Hophtrig is crying.
I'll drink a glass with you, though I know I'm not cleverer than you. It is with a very heavy heart Hophtrig votes for one of Hophtrig's best friends on board. Hophtrig knows that, if Choey was chosen by the naughty mist that came aboard, it was not Choey's fault, and it does not make Choey any less Hophtrig's friend.
Hophtrig will genuinely miss Choey, Choey's pouch, Choey's enthusiasm, Choey's jumphugs. This bus trip has reached the pointy end, and Hophtrig is hurting a lot to say goodbye. Farewell, Choey, farewell.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
If Hophtrig has been possessed by the Naughty mist and turns out to be crying crocodile tears, Ios is going to bite Hophtrig in the ankle.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto will ask the FBC to do some suction cup featheration of that friendly Hophtrig if that happens too.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig would not do very well as a naughty person, Hophtrig is far too sentimental. If Hophtrig was naughty, and knew Choey was not, Hophtrig would fight hard not to doom his friend Choey.
Any nominations or votes Choey may have made, Hophtrig understands in the context of this trip. Hophtrig liked Choey from the moment Choey stepped aboard. Hophtrig is good, and is following the tide of belief that Choey is naughty (something that, yes, Hophtrig would say if he were naughty) and it pains Hophtrig to the core. Hophtrig is not crying any sort of reptilian tears over this one, Hophtrig is soft, furry and huggable, not scaly and cold-blooded. Hophtrig really will miss Choey.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
Votes once cast cannot be changed.
Four votes for Choey. One for Codine.
[ 03. April 2014, 08:28: Message edited by: Dafyd ]
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Well, far be it from me to interrupt the excellent job that Zapatarietxe and John are doing for the mafia, but I'm afraid I cannot concur.
Codine
And Otto, I do love that you and the FBC cannot agree on this one.
Thank you. I am hoping you will play your flute as I exit. Waltzing Matilda might be appropriate.
[ 03. April 2014, 10:04: Message edited by: Banner Lady ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Choey, if nothing else you have brought some sanity back to on-bus events by not voting for yourself. (Joostein and Ja'ayem, I'm looking at you.
)
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
There are going to be some awful lessons about human nature here, whether Choey is Innocent or Possessed.
If Choey is Innocent, for me it will show how easy it is to suspect someone who is very different from ourselves. It will also show it is easy to be very very very convinced of something, and be absolutely wrong: Zapaterietxe will be 3/4 against if Choey is Innocent.
If Choey is Possessed, it will suggest to me that I shouldn't listen to Beings' protestations of Innocence and should instead be hard as nails in brushing aside my doubts. But I don't like that conclusion. Nevertheless, if Choey is Possessed, I also think it will be deeply unsettling to me.
When Zapaterietxe voted for Choey in this round, after Otto had voted for Codine, and without Z even saying anything in reference to what I had said about Codine, I had to look several times to verify who had voted, and that this was one of our cleared Innocents by unchallenged role-claim. In fact (...awful thought occurs to Ios...) -- I'll be right back...
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
(...rushing back in after re-checking my PM from the Absolute a.k.a. Dafyd)
Sigh of relief.
It is not the case, as I suddenly feared, that I am the Unreadable Innocent and just hadn't realized it.
I'm just a plain Innocent, and Zapaterietxe is the Unreadable Innocent.
Choey, if you are Innocent, you will not have been sent after our engine in vain, because for the survivors we will have one more point of certain knowledge that we can use to hopefully create a team win for the Innocents. And we will have not only the knowledge of your Innocence, but also the knowledge to be able to read your posts, and posts about you, in light of that certain knowledge.
[ 03. April 2014, 13:35: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Well, since I know myself innocent, I will obviously be voting for Chooey.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ios is preparing a list of questions for the debriefing room that Dimthing Bus Tours will undoubtedly have to provide for the confused passengers, living and dead, after this crazy bus trip. Top on the list:
How on earth do players of Real Lyfe ever come to trust each other? Is it just that in Real Lyfe 4/15 of the people you meet do not want you dead? Or are there other cues for trust and truth in the Real Lyfe app which don't hold on Bus Tours?
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Sorry, lots of doctor's appointlments in the last few days, so not here as much as I'd like to be. Should be back now though. quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
I found Codine's post looking at who might have been killed, to be odd.
Codine says he had already written it and didn't want it to go to waste. Why was it already written?
Wrote it before I was called away from my desk. I only meant that now that I was back at my desk and saw what had been said, it seemed kind of useless. Figured whatever, it can't hurt. Think Codine is mafia, if you wish, but believe me the person behind Codine doesn't have nearly the patience for planning to compose such a thing beforehand.
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Codine also left John The Less off the list. Why that oversight?
Because we knew he was innocent, so he wasn't a serious factor to be suspicious of. Forgot him.
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
One possible explanation is that (a) the Possessed targeted John last night, and were foiled; and (b) Codine is Possessed; and (c) Codine prepared the document in advance in order to be able to post it in order to seem to be like an Innocent person trying to figure things out; and (d) Codine didn't include John because he expected him to be dead; and (e) Codine forgot to add John into the document after John turned up alive.
OOC: Clever analysis, but nothing like me. I wouldn't write such a thing ahead of time, way way way too much work. I'd be a better player probably if I planned ahead, got out spreadsheets to keep track of votes, and reread everything five times. Honestly, I spend enough time on the ship as it is what with reading Purg and all. There is no way I'd do that as an innocent or a mobster.
[ 03. April 2014, 13:54: Message edited by: Gwai ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Crap. Codine, and her OOC fictitious friend Clan Gwai, sound utterly convincing to me. Grrrr. So who the hell does that leave? The cheerful feckless duo, Hophtrig and Otto? Or Choey will turn out to be Possessed? Or Eliabulon really is Possessed?
Crap crap crap crap crap.
But what else is new? I'm easily convinced, and quite gullible. Oh, sorry, I can't use the g- word since it's not in the dictionary. And yes, I have been fooled by that hoary old joke about g and the dictionary, not once, not twice, but three times. Excuse me, I have to go check in the mirror to see if I see ELBILLUG tattooed across my forehead.
[Not only am I ELBILLUG, but I can't use punctuation either.]
[ 03. April 2014, 13:58: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
I voted for Cho Bacca because 1) I suspected her anyway, and B) I couldn't really decide between her and Codine, and III) I decided voting with a known innocent is better than splitting it, because 4) we learn something useful either way.
I know I nominated Hophtrig, but that was a bit of pot stirring I did to see what might turn up. Turned out to be useful, even though I didn't push it due to a RealLyfe thing.
So there's that. She may end up being another Lesley, but gosh darn it I'm sick of waffling.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
When Zapaterietxe voted for Choey in this round, after Otto had voted for Codine, and without Z even saying anything in reference to what I had said about Codine, I had to look several times to verify who had voted, and that this was one of our cleared Innocents by unchallenged role-claim. In fact (...awful thought occurs to Ios...) -- I'll be right back...
You want my reasoning? You want to know why I'm no longer jumping for the Next Distraction that passes my way? Read every post I've written about Choey. Now, imagine me rehashing all of that again. You can thank me later. We've jumped at enough last-minute distractions, between Joostein and Ja'ayem. Though it pains me to say it, I'd almost suspect this of being one last attempt to throw one up, coupled with an effective smokescreen of feigned confusion.
Let us speak according to our natural lights: there is nothing for us beyond the appearances, the phainomena—no noumenal thing-in-itself in the Beyond, no unknowable, stable absolute and unconditioned essence we could understand and control if only we could work out the exact laws and principles behind its operation. To think that there is, and to seek to use these seeming laws of force, is what makes the Possessors the Possessors.*
So I know the risk of taking a stand, of saying "this is how things appear." And judging by appearances, rather than that which we cannot know, has gotten me (and us) in a bit of trouble. However, I note that only two of us—me and John—have ever nominated anyone for eviction who turned out to be guilty. For those speaking about my uneven track record, I would like you to look at your own, at what your hesitation and servile fear says. There is no Beyond that can be known, no certainty that we crave, no objectivity to our subjectivity; but to embrace the contradictions, to say that we can trust nothing, that every certain judgment entails and equal and opposite judgment, is to embrace the skeptic's way of life, one that, in its manifold paradoxes, leads to the self-divided and unhappy consciousness.
So trust what you see, judge what you perceive. There is nothing else to be had for us.
*Indeed, they're not so very different from us angels at a…well, "biological level" is the wrong term, but it'll work. The difference between us and the Possessors of Nature is that, while I restrict my work to base, unconscious matter, letting labor produce forms that speak for me, that show myself to Others, the Possessors have no such qualms, and prefer to enslave nature, to make it work and speak for them, to negate the freedom and self-consciousness of another being for their own ends. Of course, it never works in the end—so many paradoxes, they never end up finding the justification for their own existence they so desperately seek in a subjugated, rather than free, being—but that hasn't stopped them yet.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Thanks for explaining, Zapaterietxe. I understand the need to make a decision at some point and cease dithering. I wasn't looking for a rehash of what you've said about Choey. I was only surprised that you didn't make even the briefest mention, even two words or less, about Otto voting for Codine, or us needing to focus on Choey today and consider other possibilities on Dimthing tomorrow, or something.
It is interesting to me that all of us passengers are united in our love of bus tours, and on the surface some of us might seem similar, but the longer we spend stranded here in the Dimthing desert separated from our engine by an impassable volume of xtonic radiation, the more I realize how much we are all different from each other.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
If I have read correctly, we have all now voted except for Eliabulon.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
So nice to know that it's not personal, and some of us are simply on the "if innocent then expendable" list. Good luck with that. You are now going to need it.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
If it helps, Choey, remember we're all expendable. Either we're innocent, in which case the possessed are actively trying to expend us, so to speak, or we are guilty in which case we really should be expended!
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
We're all expendable [and cross-postable].
Once we know you are Innocent, we will hopefully be able to be wise enough to rightly discern how to use the observations you've been making.
For me, you are on the "if innocent, then knowing that for sure will be very very very helpful in terms of making it possible for me to focus in what I hope will be the right direction" list. Reppik Tew was also on that list, for me.
[ 03. April 2014, 19:30: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
In noting that the previous post was cross-posted, I forgot to clarify: the "you" in that post is Choey.
[ 03. April 2014, 19:39: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Please do not think I am upset. Not at all. I am just another Australian being thrown off a bus somewhere in the universe. It does happen rather a lot, I hear. But the odds in favour of the innocent winning are narrowing quickly. If you lose another overnight, then you will need considerable luck tomorrow.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto has just read whats ahappening. It seems he may have been right. But we shall see. Codine, art thou evil?
(Otto's make believe dreamy friend is medically cleared and in the clear. Now looking out the window at 2 feet of snow and wishing he brought skis to the cabin. But not really supposed to. )
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
for Otto's fictitious friend NP!
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
for Otto's fictitious friend NP!
Raisins tomorrow. For everyone!
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
And rum, I think.
Choey wheeled out another, larger mini-bar, and projected some words on the ceiling. It read "Choey's wake. Help yourselves."
Then she settled back to await the grand entrance of the Grafinn who was needed to push the eject button.
"Otto, do you think we could have some dancing music? I am very tired of listening to this ancient bus-loop of The Girl from Ipanima."
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig loves music, let Hophtrig try starting a song for Choey.
Traveling on a fried-out bus tour
On the Dimthing trail where things are unsure
I met a strange roo, she made me nervous
But she opened her pouch and found us breakfast
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I wonder if my psychic hat still fits.
I predict:
Innocent: Choey
Possessed: Hophtrig and Otto
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Sorry, Ios' psychic hat is one size too small, and Hophtrig fears it may be squeezing Ios' brain.
Hophtrig really, really hopes Ios is wrong about the first point, but it scares Hophtrig that Ios might be totally right. Hophtrig doesn't know how Hophtrig would cope with that, if the hat is right Hophtrig joined a crowd who did a very bad thing.
About the second point, Ios' psychic hat is sadly mistaken.
The third point, Hophtrig doesn't know how the hat holds up. Hophtrig has thought that way before, but Hophtrig likes Otto quite a lot.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
I predict Hophtrig and Codine. But you already knew that.
Choey smiled at Hophtrig, and gave him a vegemite sandwich.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
And that, folks, is why Hophtrig will miss Choey so much!
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
How did Otto know Daisy was not Possessed, and thus could safely be addressed as "us innocents"?
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Codine can think of one obvious way Otto could know she was innocent, but he notes it's also possible that Otto was just guessing.
"The rum is very good. Though having rum and raisins together makes me feel I should be making a rum bread or perhaps a rice pudding."
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Reading the Bus Transcript assuming a Reppik/Hophtrig/Otto cabal, with Ja'ayem the secret Sympathiser, makes everything clear and transparent for me.
It removes the need for any of the baroque conspiracy theories I've been spinning. It explains why Hophtrig was in such a hurry to nominate Otto on Dimthing Day Two. It explains why Ja'ayem was waffling between voting for Reppik or Otto. It might explain why Reppik behaved and spoke as he did during that vote -- I wonder if he was hoping to be able to hang the vote? It explains who Ja'ayem was protecting, and why he preferred us to hunt in the group of four (with a 1/4 chance of harming the Naughties) instead of in the group of three (with a 2/3 chance of harming the Naughties).
And finally, it makes everyone's speeches make sense.
--
If Choey turns out to be Possessed, I am going to have to eat my hat (Zapaterietxe, please pass the mustard) and throw this theory on the trash heap of Theories I've Thoroughly Convinced Myself Are True But Turn Out To Be Quite False.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
John reached into his bag and pulled something out.
"Thankfully, my hat is made of... BACON!"
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
"Ios, I like that theory because we win either way. Either Choey is possessed, and we're down to one Possessed left or you have a good theory--I can't find a hole in it either, though there might be one--on who is guilty. (Which would be a good revenge for Choey.)"
The velveted servant pauses for a moment, and then continues with the slightest ghost of a smile on his face. "Re the hat, are you all sharing a hat, or did you each bring your own? Because I'm not sure I would advise eating bacon that's been on John's head for this many days."
[ 04. April 2014, 15:10: Message edited by: Gwai ]
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto is aghast. He voted Codine based on the basis of guess as surmised. Because he knows he is innocent Ios' theory is simply wrong. If Choey is innocent then we really are in trouble like nobody knows.
Otto is beginning to wonder about his first theory of Hophtrig and the Grafinn. Codine is still also a wonderment. And Otto begins to suspect everyone. But the FBC tells him to settle down. Perhaps Choey is innocent. We have not had confirmation yet.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Well, Otto says he's innocent. There goes your theory, Ios! Otto's innocent!
For that matter, so is Cho Bacca, Codine, Hophtrig, the Grafinn, Zapaterietxe, Ios, and I, because we've all made similar statements.
That means that either one of the aforementioned beings (who would never tell a lie, scouts honor!) is in fact telling a falsehood, or
Dafyd is lying about how many possessed beings remain.
Somehow I just don't think it's the second option.
Oh, but each one has assured us of his/her/its innocence.
What to do? What to do? What to do?
[ 04. April 2014, 15:51: Message edited by: Barefoot Friar ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Gwai:
"Re the hat, are you all sharing a hat, or did you each bring your own? Because I'm not sure I would advise eating bacon that's been on John's head for this many days."
1)It's fresh from my Magick Bag, not my head; and
2)It's shelf-stable bacon.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Is it milk chocolate bacon, or dark chocolate bacon? Because I much prefer milk.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Chocolate bacon? What madness is this?
No, no. Shelf stable bacon is real (American style) bacon. But it's vacuum sealed so it doesn't go bad.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Ios theory is wrong because Otto's innocence is a fact. Neither he nor the FBC know how to prove it.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
Chocolate bacon? What madness is this?
You're still surprised by madness? On the Dimthing Bus Tour? ![[Killing me]](graemlins/killingme.gif)
[ 04. April 2014, 16:25: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
quote:
Originally posted by Alban:
Hophtrig thinks Ios was not attacking Otto when Ios made that statement, but suggesting a possibility the Graffin forgot.
And it's completely terrifying to be thinking of levels of deception that apparently Eliabulon forgot. It makes me doubt the Grafinn's Innocence. Eliabulon also didn't agree with me about the level of deception that Ja'ayem might have been running, but I am not entirely convinced by Eliabulon's view.
I do not think zat ze Possessed can afford to sacrifice vun of ze two of zem left at zis stage. I fully expect zem to be accusing und casting suspicion at vun anozer to ze extent necessary to preserve zeir cover, but not to make a serious attempt to have vun or ozer of zem lynched.
If I am wrong about zat, I vill be delighted to see vun of zem dead.
I vish so many people had not voted before Codine's explanation of his omission of John from his list. Codine's account seemed to me to be cursory, but zen Codine vas about to vote himself out of danger und vould not have vanted to dvell on zis point, vether he vas guilty or innocent, as he had no vun to convince.
I did not follow Ios' reasoning: Codine might be guilty, but I only a fool vould have expected John to be dead, even if zeyt knew ze Possessed had targeted him. He is an obvious person for himself to protect. A killer who tried it vould not 'expect' success, but hope for it, und plan for failure. But I still thought ve might learn more of Codine's thinking from an explanation under pressure zan in fact ve did.
Still, ze vote is decided, und nothing vas said to make me vote against ze known innocents. Choey.
[ 04. April 2014, 18:09: Message edited by: Eliab ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
E, I can not make heads nor tails of your first paragraph in your reply to me.
Can you try saying it in a different way?
[ 04. April 2014, 18:41: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
Dimthing Tours hereby announce that voting is closed, and Cho Bacca Loriette has been evicted. She was innocent.
The lights go out. Night actions please.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
So, possibilities:
If Choey's guilty, I don't think that rules out Hoppyfrig—it just makes him as suspicious as the three we've got left. If she's innocent, and just had a "lynch me" sign on her back, then I think we should grab it from her on her way out the door and pin it to H—because, um, wow. I'll give up my sane and purely rational reasons for hers of…well, whatever they are…if she was innocent.
I do think an H/O pairing makes sense, for reasons Ios and I have both outlined. Also, I'm guessing Ja'ayem sacrificed himself for at least one guilty party; while I think it's Choey, there was one other candidate in the dock, and having her off the bus narrows our possibilities a bit, now doesn't it? I also think it's interesting to note that neither H nor O nor C actually defend themselves, but just assert innocence, confusion, and general "who, old friendly me?"—ness. So two out of three, and it's about to become one out of two.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
...And this is what we call "ironic cross-talk." So, two out of two. Okay Choey, guess you were right, somehow; Hoppy, I think you're up next.
You know our methods. Start your lying now.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Dimthing through day five
Nominees, votes, and deaths both by our collective hand and beyond our control:
Dimthing day one:
15 passengers
Nominations:
John nominates No Lynching
Joostein nominates Eliabulon
Eliabulon nominates Joostein
Zapaterietxe nominates Reppik Tew
Reppik Tew nominates Lovely Lesley
Votes:
Early votes before polls open:
Lady Celandine: No Lynching
Choey: No lynching
Votes after polls open:
Zapaterietxe: Reppik Tew
Lady Celandine: No Lynching
Ja'ayem: No Lynching
Otto: Joostein
Hophtrig: No Lynching
Eliabulon: Joostein
[Lovely Lesley invalidly votes for Hophtrig]
Lovely Lesley: No Lynching
Crimson: No Lynching
John: No Lynching
Codine: No Lynching
Ios: Joostein (this was a crosspost with Codine)
Joostein: No Lynching
Reppik Tew: No Lynching
Daisy shows up just before the polls close and pleads an attack of Real Lyfe. She asks whether her vote still can make a difference (it can't), and doesn't vote.
Result:
10 - No Lynching
3 - Joostein
1 - Reppik Tew
1 - No Vote Cast
The airlock stays closed.
Dimthing night one
Police Inspector Crimson is murdered.
Dimthing day two
14 passengers
Nominations:
Hophtrig nominates Otto
John nominates Reppik Tew
Otto nominates Hophtrig
Votes:
Choey: Hophtrig
Ja'ayem: Otto
Hophtrig: Otto
Zapaterietxe: Reppik Tew
Lady Celandine: Reppik Tew
Lovely Lesley: No Lynching
John: Reppik Tew
Ios: Reppik Tew
Otto: Reppik Tew
Joostein: Otto (to gather information about the people voting after him, he says)
Eliabulon: Reppik Tew
Reppik Tew: No Lynching
Daisy: Reppik Tew (mentions an imminent upcoming lengthy appointment with Real Lyfe)
Codine: Reppik Tew (cites a timing issue involving the Real Lyfe Leave Work Challenge and the Real Lyfe Arrive Home Challenge to explain her late vote)
Results:
8 - Reppik Tew
3 - Otto
1 - Hophtrig
2 - No Lynching
Possessed Symbiont (Unreadable) Reppik Tew is wrestled out the airlock by...
... Innocent Lovely Lesley
Dimthing night two
Detective Lady Celandine is murdered.
Dimthing day three
11 passengers
Nominations:
John nominates Otto
Joostein nominates Eliabulon
Choey nominates Hophtrig
Eliabulon nominates Joostein
Joostein claims to be the doctor.
John claims to be the doctor.
All hell breaks loose.
Votes:
Eliabulon: Joostein
Ios: Joostein
Choey: Joostein
John: Joostein
Ja'ayem: Joostein
Codine: Joostein
Hophtrig: Joostein
Otto: Joostein
Zapaterietxe: Joostein
Daisy: Joostein
Joostein: Joostein
Results:
11 - Joostein
Innocent Joostein is lynched
Dimthing night three
Daisy is murdered.
Dimthing day four
9 passengers
Nominations:
Zapaterietxe nominates Choey
Choey nominates Hophtrig
John nominates Ja'ayem
Ja'ayem nominates Ios
Votes: (I may have a few out of order)
John: Ja'ayem
Ios: Ja'ayem
Codine: Ja'ayem
Zapaterietxe: Ja'ayem
Hophtrig: Ja'ayem
Choey: Ja'ayem
Otto: Ja'ayem
Ja'ayem: Ja'ayem
Eliabulon: Ja'ayem
9 - Ja'ayem
Sympathiser Ja'ayem is lynched
Dimthing night four
An attempt on John is foiled by Dr. John himself. No-one is murdered.
Dimthing day five
8 passengers
Nominations:
Eliabulon nominates Choey
Choey nominates Codine
John nominates Hophtrig
Votes:
Otto: Codine
Zapaterietxe: Choey
John: Choey
Ios: Choey
[Otto: tries to change to Choey, but not allowed]
Hophtrig: Choey
Choey: Codine
Codine: Choey
Eliabulon: Choey
Results:
6 - Choey
2 - Codine
Innocent Choey is lynched
[ 04. April 2014, 19:28: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
I do think an H/O pairing makes sense, for reasons Ios and I have both outlined. Also, I'm guessing Ja'ayem sacrificed himself for at least one guilty party; while I think it's Choey, there was one other candidate in the dock, and having her off the bus narrows our possibilities a bit, now doesn't it? I also think it's interesting to note that neither H nor O nor C actually defend themselves, but just assert innocence, confusion, and general "who, old friendly me?"—ness. So two out of three, and it's about to become one out of two.
Codine smiled. "The problem with defense here is rather like that in a criminal trial. It's hard to prove a negative. Our best proof of our innocence is generally to prove that someone else is Possessed.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig does not like this sign, Zapaterietxe.
But Hophtrig joined the crowd, which did a very, very bad thing. Hophtrig is very sorry about the loss of Choey. Hophtrig knows why the sign is stuck there and, though innocent, Hophtrig will wear it with pride, for it was Choey's.
A strange point Hophtrig has noticed, Hophtrig has very particular rules of speech, Hophtrig tends to use names, not to use impersonal pronouns for Hophtrig or Hophtrig's friends. Hophtrig has slipped out of this a couple of times, once getting into deep analysis and the other of these was farewelling Choey.Either this was a very devious, cynical and intentional little piece of colour Hophtrig added, or Hophtrig actually meant it.
Zapaterietxe notes that "Hophtrig and Otto don't defend themselves". Otto has claimed Otto's innocence, and has explained the suspicious things Otto has done. Hophtrig has defended Hophtrig before, and, yes, Hophtrig has condemned Hophtrig, too. Hophtrig has been pretty plain about his attempts to help.
Hophtrig sees two possibilities, Hophtrig is very clever, and Hophtrig is pretending his intellect is much less than it is in a Machiavellian plot.
Hophtrig is a dumb patsy, and this is being pinned on Hophtrig.
If Zapaterietxe or any of Hophtrig's friends have any questions for Hophtrig to ask, Hophtrig will, as Hophtrig always has, answer them. Whether Hophtrigs answers will satisfy you, whether Hophtrig's answers ever could, Hophtrig does not know.
If anyone is looking for Hophtrig, Hophtrig will be in the cockpit, taking things apart with a screwdriver Choey left. When it is light, again, Hophtrig will use what Hophtrig has removed to build a memorial.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
Thank you, Hophtrig. I shall leave you this pile of lamingtons to work with. Yes, I am innocent.
The only thing of which Choey is guilty on this trip, is challenging the horrid angel over his appalling bullying. She had grown very tired of it, and it had begun to look so much more inviting outside the bus. As the internal door closed on her, she shone her explainiator through the window.
“Just in case you need it, you will find I have left you plenty of organic fuel in the plastic bags under your seats. I was caught a little short during the night when Hophtrig mentioned that the sanitation receptacle had disappeared, and there was nothing to go on.
I wish you all well, but I don’t like your chances very much. If you’re innocent, you’d better watch out, as you might be the next one to be plucked by an angel.”
The external door opened, and Choey thought hard about surrounding herself in a radiation proof bubble. Unfortunately the effort caused her to empty her bowels at exactly the same time the bubble appeared. The passengers on the bus watched the 3 metre brown bubble float slowly past, before the xtonic radiation caused it to rupture suddenly. All that was left of Choey was a large brown smear that obliterated the windows down one side of the Dimthing coach.
A haunting snatch of song seemed to drift through the crackly speakers “…and her ghost may be heard as you pass by the Sapphire Falls…you’ll come a waltzing Matilda with me…”
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Ios, Zapa, and Eliabulon: I would like to request as much analysis and planning from you as possible before dawn, because I have a bad feeling about tonight. Give us something to go on in the morning, if you can. I know the Grafinn will be otherwise employed, and I'm sure the others will be as well, but we'll do the best we can.
My instinct at the moment is to go after Hophtrig. I learned enough from my pot stirring today to feel good about it.
Otto and Codine, whichever one of you is innocent is unlikely to be targeted tonight. If you're killed, we know who to go after tomorrow. They need you alive since we aren't completely certain which is which.
It is most unfortunate that we lynched an innocent, and in most circumstances I would be raging right about now. However, we have actually learned much today. We have been through much, we have lost much, but victory is within our grasp. Think smart, don't be afraid to say what you believe, and stand behind your convictions.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
So Otto was right to not vote for Choey. The FBC says "so there". Do you still think Otto is bad? Otto is good.
Otto wonders about Codine, Hophtrig and the Grafinn just now. But going on intuition. He plays a lamentation for the dead Choey and the living innocents, and asks the Despicable Ones to plug their ears. You know who you are.
We need to look at who convinced who to vote for Choey, with Otto just feeling about the 3 he suggested above. Meanwhile he will lie down and bleed a while for Choey and rise to fight you again later over who is next deadybyes one. --choke, sob, weep
[ 04. April 2014, 20:35: Message edited by: no prophet ]
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Otto, your decision not to vote for Choey was not for lack of trying. Hophtrig does not call this evidence of guilt. Hophtrig just wants to make it clear that Choey's blood is on the hands of every one of us friends on board here.
Every
One
Of
Us
Friends.
None is guiltless. None.
Hophtrig is really, really sorry for our loss.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I like the nice serene place of knowing that it's Hophtrig and Otto. Whether it's true or not. The next set of logical pyrotechnics I think I shall observe with the detachment of someone who's incompetent at the craft herself, but enjoys watching others futilely beat their heads against brick walls. Hophtrig and Otto, you are the very nicest two Possessed Beings I have ever known. I'm going to sit up here in the front seat looking at the stars tonight. There's room for three, if you'd like to join me.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
E, I can not make heads nor tails of your first paragraph in your reply to me.
Can you try saying it in a different way?
Some of it is irrelevant, because Choey vas innocent. Vich surprises me. It means zat either Ja'ayem fooled me into thinking zat he vas trying to shield her und Hophtrig, or I have misread Hophtrig completely.
Anyvay, ze explanation, for vat it is vorth, is zat Otto vent off qvickly on your possible suspicion of Codine. I said (thinking Choey likely to be Possessed) zat it could be an attempt to head off a vote to evict Choey. You said zat anozer possibility if he vas guilty vould be zat he vas setting up an alibi (thinking, I assume, zat Codine vas guilty und by being qvick to accuse he vould make himself look innocent). You zen seem surprised zat I had not considered zis.
My point is zat, assume Otto und Codine vere possessed, I vould not expect either to ccuse ze ozer at a point of real danger. Zere are too few Possessed left for zem to play zat game. I vould be happy if zey did.
Zat does not mean zat anyvun accusing anozer is proof zat zey cannot both be guilty. If vun is clearly going to lose a vote, ze ozer vill abandon zem. Ve can also expect zem to express doubt of ze ozer so as to avoid looking too close. But I do not expect zem to sacrifice vun of ze last two. Ze possibility zat Codine is guilty UND zat a guilty Otto is genuinely trying to evict him is an unlikely vun. It looked more like he vas shielding a guilty Choey.
But as Choey vas not guilty, my hope zat a guilty Otto vas making a mistake in trying to run ze vote against Codine und ve had found both ze killers is disappointed. Otto's (initial) vote not to lynch an innocent person is a point in his favour, though not proof either vay.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I see. Thanks for explaining. Your assessment of the numbers is that a deliberate risk of sacrifice at this point would be unwise for the Possessed. But what if the Possessed don't grasp the numbers the way you do? Or what if they prefer to play more boldly?
quote:
Originally posted by Eliabulon:
[...]Choey vas innocent. Vich surprises me.
I'm surprised that you're surprised. After the whole Joostein kerfuffle you didn't realize that someone (Choey in this case) might think and act completely differently than you would? And I don't just mean someone who comes to different logical conclusions, but someone who engages with and reacts to other passengers in a manner completely different from yours? Maybe it's because of A.'s recent Fake Life experiences that Ios is primed to be able to consider that possibility.
quote:
Originally posted by Eliabulon:
It means zat either Ja'ayem fooled me into thinking zat he vas trying to shield her und Hophtrig,
Gosh, imagine that as a possibility. I seem to remember someone suggesting that Ja'ayem might be Second Partridge, and pretty much getting blown off or ignored by the vote influencers.
quote:
Originally posted by Eliabulon:
or I have misread Hophtrig completely.
That's possible too. How confident are you in your ability to read bus passengers? What's your reading on Hophtrig?
[ 04. April 2014, 21:52: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Remember, everyone, we are in the Dimthing zone. Tomorrow is only day four of Eblootia week, which Ios reminded us of the existence of a few days back, around the time of Joostein. I think, being Eblootia week, we cannot discount the possibility that we are completely wrong about any of the friends. That and the death of the innocent Choey.
Hophtrig hates to think of the idea of rereading the archives, of trying to pick up any patterns therein, especially since the friends and Hophtrig have all been doing this for so long now, but it does give something to do in the starlight through the front viewport.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
So, here's my analysis:
Lesley, Joostein, and Choey really and truly did look guilty, and not just to me—especially those last two. We've seen my analysis, and my attempts to find any defense from them, we've seen everyone else's; and, truth be told, we've done a pretty good job of determining who looks guilty, who's dodging questions, who's throwing up smokescreens and running from the attention of those of us who are known innocents. John, from what I can tell, works and thinks in about the same way and direction as I do; seeing as he's a known innocent, I don't have any reason to suspect he's just following on after whatever I say. Can't see why anyone would do that, anyway—frankly, pointing out where I missed something looks less suspicious.
So who hasn't been trying to redirect our attention when we're looking at someone who turned out to be innocent? Who hasn't given us so much as a "yes, but…"? It's why I pay attention to the Grafinn and Ios; they both see the flaws in my reasoning, and will point them out. I think I've challenged both of them (and John) before I suspected them of innocence; a quick reply answering my questions, and that was that. Since then, they've raised doubts when I seemed to be on the wrong track, or missed something myself; it's why I don't often suspect them.
Lately, my suspicions have turned to Hophtrig, who points out how bad things are looking for him. Well, yes. Tell us something we don't already know. I suppose my idea of a defense—laying out reasons why we shouldn't suspect you, countering the points of the one accusing you, and otherwise trying to directly refute or explain the accusations laid at your foot-analogues—is different than it is for others. Simply asserting that you know you're innocent isn't a defense.
For instance, let's say John or Eliabulon decided to accuse me. Okay, I'm guessing they'd point out that I'm talkative, that I tend to aggressively pursue those I suspect, that I've been wrong in the past, and that claiming the one role nobody could ever possibly contradict would be perfect, just perfect. In response, I'd point out that they too suggested talking and hiding nothing, that pursuing the truth, wherever it leads, and looking for cracks in alibis is a pretty good investigative strategy for sussing out murderous beings, that my proven voting record is currently no worse than anyone else on this bus—and I don't see too many others willing to stick their necks out—and that, really, I even admitted at the time that role claim wasn't even something I saw as a defense (honestly, I'm surprised others took it as one), just another piece of information someone else might be able to use.
That's a rough outline, of course; I'd expect the accusations to be much more detailed, with citations provided, and likewise the responses.
This kind of analysis also provides much more data for us to work with post-debussing. Now that we know Choey was innocent, I wish even more she had gone into detail as to why she didn't suspect Otto, whom I think we're beginning to suspect more ourselves, and was convinced of his innocence so quickly; it would have given us something useful from a confirmed innocent to work with. Ditto her suspicions of Hophtrig, beyond just "he voted for Otto, whom I know is innocent;" I know we're building a greater case against H now, but, as I mentioned, I never thought she gave that many reasons to suspect him. Only over the last day, now that Ja'ayem sacrificed himself to protect somebody, and that somebody wasn't Choey, has Hophtrig looked genuinely suspicious, rather than merely annoying (as he did when we first left).
But, then again, I'm willing to posit an axiom here:
The Dimthing Axiom:
The most guilty-looking being is usually not the most guilty one
The guilty can coordinate. They can hide. They can discuss things just as much as we do, but in private; no doubt they've been reviewing transcripts and thinking ahead almost as much as we have. They know what we're looking for, and what we're looking at; so long as they keep from showing those signs, tailoring their strategy to the individuals on the bus, they can keep from being found. Even I have been known to use a different strategy when addressing different groups, or simply because I wanted to try it out; the fact that logic, reason, and interrogation seemed to be the best option this week, the one I wanted to try out, does not mean that, in the past, with other audiences, I haven't tried more intuitive approaches. I think it took Reppik by surprise—he wasn't expecting it from me, probably—but his two partners had time to adjust and hide, making sure they were never the most guilty-looking being to me and John, especially once we had both made our role claims.
Axiom 2: The Ursine Flight Conjecture
You don't have to look innocent, you just can't look like you're most guilty
I think Hophtrig has been nominated by somebody (usually Lesley) every day but the first, and I'd be shocked if he wasn't nominated tomorrow, perhaps by me. The thing is, there's been somebody who looked more guilty each day, and that somebody, rather than the one who's been constantly arousing a low level of suspicion in at least a few of us, is the one who gets voted off. It's okay to be a bit suspicious all the time, but not okay to be a lot suspicious at one time. Ja'ayem used this when he sacrificed himself; he suddenly went from "who cares about you, we're about to discuss Choey/Hophtrig innocence/guilt" to "even Zapa's forgotten about Choey to throw you off the bus!" We've also seen that the being who looks worst is usually innocent, but that list changes from moment to moment or even by the hour—and not just because we usually end up throwing whoever looks worst off the bus—while the list of who looks second worst remains fairly constant. I thought this was evidence against Choey—we'd finally gotten rid of the one-day slip-ups/surprises/sacrifices and were finally on to someone who was exhibiting a long-term pattern of behavior—but, as it turns out, it wasn't.
Axiom 3: The Berlioz Assumption
An idée fixe might be a sign of being a crazed, obsessed loner; the Possessed aren't going to draw attention to their collective selves by pursuing one
Joostein and the Grafinn. Choey and Hophtrig. Me and Reppik, then Choey. Even John has been known to chase whomever he thought guilty. It's a great way to take out those you think guilty, but also a good way to draw attention to yourself. Of course, it's not like this does us much good, since I think we've nailed pretty much all our obsessive parties…well, except for me. So I'm not sure how much this helps us, unless I've been missing someone else's hobbyhorse.
Axiom 4: The Argument from Ignorance
The Possessed know who's guilty; the innocent don't.
Wrong guesses, the occasional bit of confusion, and not entirely being able to make sense of things that don't make sense are normal. Sitting on the sidelines silently laughing while everything falls apart is not. I've used this to deduce Ios's innocence; she's not merely saying she's confused, she's trying to work through it. Others…well, it's not enough to say you haven't a clue. One must chase after clues, follow them wherever they lead, and extract the truth at any cost. Lies are easy to make, and hard to uncover.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Unfortunately, Choey has shown that it's possible to be Innocent and yet maddeningly difficult to pin down to other Beings' satisfaction. And also to be Innocent and spend a lot of effort asserting one's own Innocence.
Reading the entire corpus very recently with the blessedly simple focus of feeling assured that I was looking at Hophtrig/Otto/Reppik/Ja'ayem as the Naughtythings, I was struck by how much individual passengers veered from being very certain about the Innocence of a fellow Being one Dimthing day, and then changing their evaluations and being very certain of a different Being the next Dimthing day. It's funny to watch. It's at least as prevalent among the Nicethings as the Naughtythings.
I don't expect that our Bus Predicament will be solvable by logic. Nuance and luck is what we need.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Hophtrig and Zapaterietxe, if you look a little higher on the page, you will find something that will help clear up confusions or uncertainties about which Dimthing day we are coming up to, or how many times Hophtrig has been nominated.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Hophtrig and Zapaterietxe, if you look a little higher on the page, you will find something that will help clear up confusions or uncertainties about which Dimthing day we are coming up to, or how many times Hophtrig has been nominated.
Guess what I was working from…
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
The FBC has suggested to Otto that we might go through each passenger one at a time and consider them.
Codine. Otto voted for Codine and would like to say he was smart to not to vote for Choey but it was more that Choey looked slightly better. That's it. Otto is hardly showing more guilt for that. Again he asserts his innocence and raisins.
So let's discuss Codine please. Sayeth Otto. Then each one in turn. Otto assigns a score now of 55% where the extra 5% tips toward thinking guilt. 0=innocent for certainly. 100=bad one for surelyness. What say you rest of you?
Someone else can decide who is next to discuss.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Hophtrig and Zapaterietxe, if you look a little higher on the page, you will find something that will help clear up confusions or uncertainties about which Dimthing day we are coming up to, or how many times Hophtrig has been nominated.
Guess what I was working from…
Sorry. I was misled by your "I think" which seemed to convey uncertainty, to me unexpected if someone were working from the Iist:
quote:
Originally posted by Zapaterietxe:
I think Hophtrig has been nominated by somebody (usually Lesley) every day but the first,
I'm glad the list was (I presume, since you worked from it) helpful.
[ 04. April 2014, 23:58: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
What Hophtrig sees in Zapaterietxe's axioms:
- 1. Hophtrig has adjusted Hophtrig's tactics, Hophtrig went from pushing strategy, to pushing a nomination, to hiding in the background. This was trying to deflect guilt.
- 2. Hophtrig's been nominated every day. Hophtrig has weaseled out of all these dangers, because Hophtrig managed not to look most guilty.
- 3. Hophtrig ditched his idee fixe, because Hophtrig's seeming vendetta against Otto made Hophtrig look guilty.
- 4. Hophtrig is not looking hard enough for clues, but is saying Hophtrig is puzzled, instead.
Well, Hophtrig claims, in response to these points.
- 1. Hophtrig's tactics have failed. Hophtrig postulated an idea on day one. This was shot down in flames. Hophtrig gave up on having ideas, Hophtrig doesn't like being called insane. The Otto affair similar - Hophtrig will get to that soon. Hophtrig has chosen to shut up and listen! Hophtrig is not clever enough to push his thinking.
- 2. Occam's Razor OK, so those who look most guilty aren't necessarily the most. That said, those who have never looked most guilty (even if they have appeared guiltyish) are not necessarily guilty.
- 3. As in point 1, Hophtrig's fixation with Otto netted Hophtrig a nomination from Hophtrig's first real friend, and meant Hophtrig missed voting for Reppik, someone now known as guilty. Hophtrig gave up trying to conclude things.
- 4. Hophtrig is trying, really trying, to say things as Hophtrig sees them. But Hophtrig is not pushing conclusions. Hophtrig is scared. Hophtrig has got it wrong, really wrong.
Hophtrig is on the verge of giving up the fight. Hophtrig feels sad that Hophtrig has been endangered all along. Hophtrig knows Hophtrig annoys people, but Hophtrig not only doesn't want to die, but Hophtrig also doesn't want to see this bus taken over, if you let an innocent Hophtrig go, that's a real danger. Beware.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig loves Otto's idea.
Hophtrig's take: Codine has had some seemingly useful things to say, but Hophtrig thinks these are few and far between. Hophtrig would tend to rate Codine as a 60%, but the truth of the matter is, every friend on this bus would rate between 30 and 70% for Hophtrig.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I'm not sure I have anything more to say than what I've said. Hophtrig and Otto Possessed makes everything that has happened and been said on this bus make sense to me. Other combinations of possible Possessed just lead me in convoluted circles.
Codine: his post replying to my post that proposed her as Possessed, sounded convincing to me. So I lean towards his Innocence.
Eliabulon thought Codine's explanation was too sketchy. I'm puzzled by how often recently I find myself not quite agreeing with Eliabulon. Previous touring members of Clan A.Road never disagreed with Clan Eliab. I don't know if this is because I've become a better thinker since Clan A.Road last took a bus tour, or I've become a worse thinker since then, or if Eliabulon is actually Possessed and I'm spotting the cracks in a false front. Or maybe I've just come to think in a different way, neither better nor worse. I'll wait till after we escape from this bus and know for sure about Eliabulon to think very much more about that.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ios the Gender-Confused:
Codine: his post replying to my post that proposed her as Possessed, sounded convincing to me. So I lean towards his Innocence.
Sorry, Codine:
*proposed him as Possessed
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
How will you listen to both of us? Ios and Zapaterietxe think completely differently from each other.
[Wait, WTF? There was a post here a moment ago that I replied to.]
[ 05. April 2014, 00:56: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Is Hophtrig wasting Hophtrig's breath?
Hophtrig is trying to answer things as best Hophtrig can. Hophtrig is starting to wonder if there is a lot of point. Hophtrig respects Ios a lot, John too. Zapaterietxe and Eliabulon Hophtrig likes listening to. Hophtrig is starting to feel doomed.
Hophtrig calls Otto a friend. Otto, the one who Hophtrig nominated, seems the least sure point of doom for Hophtrig.
But is all Hophtrig says now merely noise? Does Hophtrig need to be quiet and accept fate? But the big question is, could Hophtrig countenance giving up without a fight?
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Who said what you were responding to, Ios? Hophtrig suspects Ios might have met the end of a page, and replied to that, as Hophtrig nearly has before now?
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
How will you listen to both of us? Ios and Zapaterietxe think completely differently from each other.
[Wait, WTF? There was a post here a moment ago that I replied to.]
Sorry, I deleted it because it needed a lot more work. Here's the new one:
I hear you Zapaterietxe. I don't have a blow-by-blow answer for you yet; I want to think on it a bit more. But I think I agree with you, and with Ios.
I think there is a difference between being of sound mind and purpose and not being swayed by distractions, on the one hand, and being so focused on something that it becomes an obsession or crusade, on the other. Then on the opposite side of the spectrum is either being finely attuned to what others are saying, versus being so unsure that one cannot decide -- waffling, in other words. I feel like all I've done, all game long, is waffle. I am about to change that. There are three suspects before us, I intend to see one off the bus tomorrow, no matter the protestations of innocence or fear or whatever else. I'm smart enough to listen to Zapa and Ios; if I miss something they will point it out.
What I'm getting at is that we do need to buckle down, not allow our lynching of an innocent get to us, and muscle through.
I note with extreme interest that Hophtrig is playing the guilt angle rather hard. "Oh, shame on you, you bad, bad people! You lynched an innocent! (Don't think about the fact that I voted for her, oh no.) Everyone is guilty of kicking an innocent off the bus!" And then the not-so-subtle "Everyone is a suspect!"
Yes, true, I did run down and lynch an innocent. Yes, I helped lead the charge. I do not feel remorse for that, because we had several Dimthing days (and many RealLyfe days) to consider, to talk, and to look at angles. I can see now she was trying to tell us, but she was doing so in a way that was very unhelpful and unconvincing.
So Hoppy doesn't want us to lynch another innocent, least of all him. Welcome to the club, brother.
I feel like there is more to say, but I don't know the words yet. I'll come back to it later.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
How will you listen to both of us? Ios and Zapaterietxe think completely differently from each other.
Yes. And yet you both make sense to me. Go figure. I'm not saying I'll waffle every time you two disagree, just that I'm giving what you say more weight than the words of anyone else because I trust you both a lot more. So if one of you says something that runs counter to what I've been thinking, I can take it under advisement.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
So Hoppy doesn't want us to lynch another innocent, least of all him. Welcome to the club, brother.
[/QB]
Hophtrig's very pleased to welcome Doctor John to the let's not lynch an innocent Hophtrig club. When we get light again, we will reopen the Hophtrig Hidey Hole.
Hophtrig is as guilty as anyone on board for the death of Choey! Hophtrig went along with the lynch mob and saw Hophtrig's friend thrown off. If you see accusation and no self-flagellation in Hophtrig's comments, you completely misunderstand Hophtrig! Hophtrig feels horrible about the death of Choey, awful! And Hophtrig is hurt and angry Choey is gone. And boy oh boy, does Hophtrig accept blame for this outrage.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I am pleased to have achieved yet another impossibility: asking a question about a post that appears after my question post.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alban:
What Hophtrig sees in Zapaterietxe's axioms:
- 1. Hophtrig has adjusted Hophtrig's tactics, Hophtrig went from pushing strategy, to pushing a nomination, to hiding in the background. This was trying to deflect guilt.
- 2. Hophtrig's been nominated every day. Hophtrig has weaseled out of all these dangers, because Hophtrig managed not to look most guilty.
- 3. Hophtrig ditched his idee fixe, because Hophtrig's seeming vendetta against Otto made Hophtrig look guilty.
- 4. Hophtrig is not looking hard enough for clues, but is saying Hophtrig is puzzled, instead.
Well, Hophtrig claims, in response to these points.
- 1. Hophtrig's tactics have failed. Hophtrig postulated an idea on day one. This was shot down in flames. Hophtrig gave up on having ideas, Hophtrig doesn't like being called insane. The Otto affair similar - Hophtrig will get to that soon. Hophtrig has chosen to shut up and listen! Hophtrig is not clever enough to push his thinking.
- 2. Occam's Razor OK, so those who look most guilty aren't necessarily the most. That said, those who have never looked most guilty (even if they have appeared guiltyish) are not necessarily guilty.
- 3. As in point 1, Hophtrig's fixation with Otto netted Hophtrig a nomination from Hophtrig's first real friend, and meant Hophtrig missed voting for Reppik, someone now known as guilty. Hophtrig gave up trying to conclude things.
- 4. Hophtrig is trying, really trying, to say things as Hophtrig sees them. But Hophtrig is not pushing conclusions. Hophtrig is scared. Hophtrig has got it wrong, really wrong.
Hophtrig is on the verge of giving up the fight. Hophtrig feels sad that Hophtrig has been endangered all along. Hophtrig knows Hophtrig annoys people, but Hophtrig not only doesn't want to die, but Hophtrig also doesn't want to see this bus taken over, if you let an innocent Hophtrig go, that's a real danger. Beware.
What was meant by the axioms:
"Here's what I've seen"
Here's what I see from Hophtrig:
"You want a defense you understand? Here you are."
So, thank you.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
How will you listen to both of us? Ios and Zapaterietxe think completely differently from each other.
Why do you think I listen to you, and pay attention when you disagree with me? You see things I don't, including my errors and where I happen to have something right. If I can listen to you, being me, John can listen to us both.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Though Hophtrig cannot see it that well, Hophtrig has now created a fairish pile of pieces from the console. The pile is almost as tall as Hophtrig, but there still seem to be pieces to remove, so Hophtrig will continue, Hophtrig will remove all the parts he can, for Choey.
Don't worry, Hophtrig is holding, carefully, on to the button, the prize for the next person who nominates a naughty, when that naughty is thrown. Hophtrig is not getting that mixed up with the other stuff. Hophtrig hopes Hophtrig can present this prize, but if not Hophtrig then Hophtrig will choose Doctor John.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
How will you listen to both of us? Ios and Zapaterietxe think completely differently from each other.
Why do you think I listen to you, and pay attention when you disagree with me? You see things I don't, including my errors and where I happen to have something right. If I can listen to you, being me, John can listen to us both.
Ah. I see. Thank you. My fictitious friend A. has always thought the way knowledge ought to work is that it would be best if everyone knew everything on their own, and didn't have to rely on other people. She only very recently (last week, working on Client Software Upgrade From Hell) had the thought that it's great that we all know different things and can work together as a team (*) to contribute what we know and together come up with the solution. A. has not yet fully conveyed this new idea to Ios.
It's been an intense several weeks in Fake Life time (passing in a flash in a few Dimthing days of course) for both A. and Ios. They have both been learning tons about human nature and at this point are a little shell shocked. Ios is enjoying peacefully looking at the stars. Ios tells A. that A.'s cross-country flight is during the day today, hence no stars, but that A. can imagine stars anyway and find the same peace Ios is feeling.
I'm not even sure any more if it's life imitating art or art imitating life.
(*) I italicize, not to rub the point in for you, because you seem to already understand this, but because this was the stunning core of the new idea for A., who is usually a complete loner in many ways and likes being self-sufficient. (Cue sermon (**) about how none of us are self-sufficient...)
(**). My auto-correct changed this to "demon." Glad I caught it. One could not make this stuff up (an idea that is at the top of Ios' and A.'s thoughts because in both Fake Life and Bus Life they have had MANY occasions to think this recently).
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
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In the middle of the dark night, the radio flickered and switched on all of a sudden. The flickering reminded of that of a
, and the darkness seemed a little lighter, a little warmer for a brief moment or two.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
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There is indeed demons among us. Otto thinks that some of the careful reasoners have not been right. Who should!we listen to now? Should we listen to wrong careful reasoners? These careful reasoners have had the passengers vote for!the wrong people. Some of these careful reasoners are Bad Demons.
Otto has listened also to the FBC. The FBC says to him that intuition of the innocent Otto is worthy of Otto listening to. So Ottos says if Otto did not vote for Innocent Choey like others did how Ios suspect him now? This makes no sense Otto and the FBC can think of or intuit.
Otto intuits with the FBC, but wonders that Hophtrig is the only one who gave a score in his suggested way of changing the discussion. Started with Codine. Then next one. Is Otto's game dumb?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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I had an intuitive thought to consider whether Hophtrig and Otto might both be Possessed, and when I reread the Bus Archive with that idea in mind, along with knowing the identity of the other two Naughtythings, Reppik and Ja'ayem, everything seemed very clear and all the things that had puzzled me were answered.
If one or both of Hophtrig or Otto turn out to be Innocent, it will make everything more complicated and I will be saddened and have to do more reflection on Being Nature.
I think Otto's game is good. Let me think if I can give any numbers. I don't know if Otto's game will change any of what I am trusting in for now. Otto's game could be good for other passengers. And it's a nice way to spend the time while we watch the stars and wait for whatever will happen next.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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Here is a number for Otto:
Codine - 15
Ios' fictitious friend A. would like to report that she has discovered that airports and airplanes are excellent restful places for her to recover from shock, and that since A. is spending the next 13 1/2 hours in airports and airplanes, A. is looking forwards to a lovely peaceful restful day, almost as peaceful as the restful night on the bus where Ios is looking at stars with two good friends on the bus, even if they might be Possessed.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
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Otto decides to sing an old favourite:
Pursue the lost realms of night...
The last realms of fear
Nighttime has stopped...bring on the aliens!
Our love is freed from the icy tundra
And everyone wants to take the next flight out!
And he wonders if he's living or if he's dying.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
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Otto's Guilt Quotient thus far:
Codine
Otto: 55
Hophtrig: 60
Ios: 15
Only a few more opinions left before we can move on to giving opinions on another of our friends.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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[Otto! You're awake and making me cross-post! What fun! Can we do Eliabulon next, after Codine?]
Ios is wondering what the tune is for Otto's song, and whether Ios can make up a tune for it. Ios has been listening to fictitious friend A. humming incessantly her new chorus warmup (*) and is feeling quite musical tonight. Fictitious friend A. is in Anaheim and enjoying the sunshine in breaks between conference talks.
Ios is admiring Otto's name, how it's the same forwards and backwards. Ios wonders if she can have a palindromic name too. It would be Iosoi. That would imply she's a numerous Greek tribe. Mwaa ha ha ha, a whole bus load of Ioses.
Oh sorry Hophtrig, didn't mean to wake you up. Go back to sleep. Otto and I will just sit here trading songs.
(*) do. do re do. do re mi re do, etc.... now high: do. do ti do. do ti la ti do, etc. Why you're welcome, I'm happy to provide this earworm. No charge. Pay it forward.
[ 06. April 2014, 18:51: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
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Oh no, Hophtrig's awake and so happy to see his friend Ios (or should we call you Iosoi now?)! Oh boy, Hophtrig loves earworms! That warmup is a gorgeous earworm, Hophtrig has usually heard it sung with numbers (1, 121, 12321 etc).
Hophtrig loves singing, he would love to hear the tune Ios(oi) makes up for Otto's song!
Hophtrig thinks it is wonderful that one of the cleverest beings on board is supporting Otto's brilliant idea!
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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Oops, Ios got confused, Hophtrig, and thought you were Otto. I don't think there's any way to make Ios' name as marvelously complex as Hophtrig's name. Ios' fictitious friend A. is relaying some jaunty jazz flute that she (A.) is listening to. Maybe Ios can incorporate that into the tune for Otto's song.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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Episode # 1,038 in the You Couldn't Make This Stuff Up series in Ios and A.'s shared life since the Dimthing Bus Tour started:
Fictitious friend A. has just poured Pepto-Bismol in her hair by accident. But not because she mistook it for, say, shampoo. No, she was fully aware it was Pepto-Bismol.
Yes, yes, go ahead. ROTFLYAO. That's all that's left to do, it's do ridiculous. I wonder if EBLOOTIA Week ever ends, or if I have entered a time-space wrap where it's always EBLOOTIA Week?
[ 06. April 2014, 20:45: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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* so, not do
* warp, not wrap
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
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Eblootia week operates on Dimthing time, so we're only on day four, sorry Ios. And Hophtrig doesn't know if Hophtrig dares ask any further questions about the imaginary A friend, the A friend sounds a little bit nutty. Hophtrig likes that in imaginary friends, though, Hophtrig does.
[ 06. April 2014, 21:12: Message edited by: Alban ]
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
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Otto is now singing another song.
I met them in a bus on Planet Dimthing
Where you drink Hophtrig water
and eat up raisins, and have a little dream
She walked up to Otto and asked him to dance
He asked her her name and in a mysterious voice
She said Eliabulon
Well, Otto's not the planet's most normal-looking guy
But when she squeezed me tight she nearly broke my spine
Oh my Eliabulon
Well, I'm not dumb but I can't understand
Why she walked like a good one but talked like a bad
Oh my Eliabulon, E-E-Eliabulon, E-E-Eliabulon
Well, we drank Hophtrig water and danced all night
Under holographic candlelight
She picked me up and sat me on her knee
And said, "Dear boy, won't you come home with me?"
Then Otto woke up and told the FBC all about it. Then FBC said that dreams are little bits of fluff that blew into your head by mistake, but even though this is what dreams are made of, they can give you clues to what your brainses are thinking by either directly giving you information or thematically telling you something.
Otto thinks the dream and song are telling him that the Grafinn is beautiful and dangerous. He is rating Eliabulon at 60. He is also rating Hophtrig at 65. Because while Hophtrig is amusing, he is not beautiful.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
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Otto notes that pepto is both minty and pink. What could be more oddly delightful?
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
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(Note the pot stirring, and the attempt to cast suspicion on an assumed innocent. Classic move, that.)
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
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Please tell Otto how it is that the Grafinn is presumed innocent? Given the bus passengers' recent failure to evict a bad one, Otto finds that comment a little odd. Otto believes he has to be careful whom to believe. Very careful.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
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Hophtrig will have to side with Otto on that one. Even though Hophtrig is not one of the beautiful beings, Hophtrig agrees that assumptions are dangerous things.
Doctor John is the doctor, that we believe. Zapaterietxe the unreadable, that is plausible. But apart from those, the only proof any have offered are their actions. Hophtrig is friends with everyone on this bus, but Hophtrig doesn't trust many of his friends all the way.
In any case, the proposal to discuss the Graffin was not Otto's proposal, the proposal came from Ios, who was willing to attempt Otto's rating idea, an idea which Hophtrig likes, too.
Hophtrig says, the Graffin talks a lot, is rather clever, but could well be hiding danger under the cloak of that intelligence. Hophtrig will give the Graffin a score of 56 - not quite so mysterious, thus not quite so untrustworthy as Codine, but beyond the 50 percent threshhold.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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I'm with Otto and Hophtrig on this. And I did suggest Eliabulon because that's who I wanted to hear about next. I'm a little bit suspicious of everyone except myself:
Hophtrig - 85
Otto - 85
Codine - 15
Eliabulon - wavering 5 to 14, depending how nervous I'm feeling
Zapaterietxe - 2
John - 1
Ios - 0
If Choey were still on board, I would have given her a perfectly divided 50.
I might change my mind about all of this tomorrow, once we know who, if anyone, has been murdered overnight, and once the recriminations and nominations start flying. Or I might not.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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quote:
Originally posted by no prophet:
Otto notes that pepto is both minty and pink. What could be more oddly delightful?
Imodium is minty and green, and might have made an oddly delightful contrast to the pink hair an hour later, except A. did not do the following with the Imodium:
- Hold bottle in left hand, dosage cup in right hand, fill dosage cup
- Drink from dosage cup
- Tilt head back to drain dosage cup fully from right hand, while holding hair out of eyes with left hand
Nope, A. learned from experience and added one tiny extra step:
- Hold bottle in left hand, dosage cup in right hand, fill dosage cup
- Put bottle down
- Drink from dosage cup
- Tilt head back to drain dosage cup fully from right hand, while holding hair out of eyes with left hand
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
(Note the pot stirring, and the attempt to cast suspicion on an assumed innocent. Classic move, that.)
John, what do you see as pot-stirring?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Alban:
Eblootia week operates on Dimthing time, so we're only on day four, sorry Ios. And Hophtrig doesn't know if Hophtrig dares ask any further questions about the imaginary A friend, the A friend sounds a little bit nutty. Hophtrig likes that in imaginary friends, though, Hophtrig does.
Imaginary friend A. is a lot like Ios. Serious, thoughtful, and logical, or playful, silly, and giddy, depending on the phase of the moon. A. likes to dance Argentine tango and play the piano, neither of which Ios has had much chance to do on this bus tour. Ios and A. both like the front seats of buses best. Ios is thinking she might enjoy coming on a future bus tour and seeing what it might be like to pretend to be someone entirely unlike A.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
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Hophtrig susects, no matter how much she may try, Ios's imaginary friend A might sneak in to any being Ios chose to inhabit. Hophtrig only slightly resembles Hophtrig's imaginary friend Alban, but that slight resemblance is there. Alban is certainly less outgoing than Hophtrig, and somewhat less exhuberant - the nuttiness is definitely shared. As is a certain symbiosis, Alban is surprised how keenly Alban feels the things that Hophtrig does and the relationships that Hophtrig forms.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
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Dimthing Tours announce that nobody has died in the night. We apologise for any inconvenience this may cause.
Nominations please.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
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Well! We apologize for the convenience indeed! I think we've bought ourselves an extra day—and have found someone who can, at last, outwit the Possessed. Given that we have a pool of 3, 2 of whom are guilty…well, assuming we've narrowed down our pool properly, at least some of us are going home. We can afford to guess wrong today, and, given that we'll be perfectly right the next two days, will triumph over the Possessed.
…of course, I'd rather we didn't make any more errors. Would someone else care to lead off today, please?
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
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Hophtrig wishes to extend his strongest congratulations to Doctor John. Hophtrig is proud to be in the company of one who is doing such an effective job.
Hophtrig will be seriously considering nominations and votes John may make, unless of course he chooses Hophtrig, in which case Hophtrig will rail against the terrible mistake made.
As a member of the "group of 3", Hophtrig is less than happy with this group, the chosen members thereof and the process of choosing them.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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Ios is dreaming that she is staying with her imaginary friend A. in hotel room 610. A. calls the front desk to arrange a wake-up call at 6:30 am. The clerk confirms by saying "six thirty, six ten". Ios hopes that the occupant of room 630 is not ushered into the madcap crowd celebrating EBLOOTIA week, with an unrequested wake-up call at 6:10 am.
Ios wakes up suddenly. How strange, and how wonderful. Everyone is alive.
Ios envies A., who is peacefully reading a book. Ios goes in search of a previous list of passengers. She has thought of a minor improvement to add.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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Ios, in her sleepy just-awaken state, cross-posted.
Hophtrig, who else would you have us consider? And why?
Zapaterietxe, by your group of three, do you mean Hophtrig, Otto, and Codine?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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Here is the revised list of Nice/Naughty in light of recent events:
Confirmed Innocent by Dafyd
Crimson (la vie en rouge) - INNOCENT, INSPECTOR, DEAD BY MURDER (Night One)
Lesley (Kelly Alves) - INNOCENT, DEAD BY REAL LYFE (Day Two)
Her Eminence, the Lady Celandine Diamante De Cooperhoop / Lucy (Starbug) - INNOCENT, DETECTIVE, DEAD BY MURDER (Night Two)
Joostein Käse (JFH) - INNOCENT, DEAD BY LYNCHING (Day Three)
Daisy (Surfing Madness) - INNOCENT, DEAD BY MURDER (Night Three)
No one is murdered (Night Four)
Cho Bacca Loriette (Banner Lady) - INNOCENT, DEAD BY LYNCHING (Day Five)
No one is murdered (Night Five)
Believed Innocent by Unchallenged Role Claim
John (Barefoot Friar) - INNOCENT, DOCTOR
Zapaterietxe (Ariston) - INNOCENT, UNREADABLE
I know I'm Innocent
Ios (Autenrieth Road)
Unknown. Hunting here for two Possessed Naughtythings (listed in reverse alphabetical order)
Otto von Biggleswarpski (no prophet)
Hophtrig (Alban)
Grafinn Ekatarina Eliabulon (Eliab)
Codine (Gwai)
Confirmed Guilfy by Dafyd
Reppik Tew (Wet Kipper) - POSSESSED, UNREADABLE, DEAD BY LYNCHING (Day Two)
Ja'ayem (Jay-Emm) - SYMPATHISER, DEAD BY LYNCHING (Day Four)
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
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Hophtrig, for all the Hophtrig condemnation Hophtrig did earlier, does not like Hophtrig in the group. Hophtrig can understand how the Graffin, Ios and Zapaterietxe got left out of the group. They're smart, erudite and well spoken. Codine is, possibly by dint of responsibilities to His master (be that the master named Gwai or the unnamed master) clever, but too quiet to read the motives of.
Hophtrig feels like Hophtrig, Choey and Otto wound up in this group because they are not very clever beings. Whether Otto, Hophtrig and Choey not offering the sort of initiative or analysis which would save Choey, Otto and Hophtrig's hides is a product of devious minds trying to keep others in the dark, or of simple minds doing the best they can is a very important question to ask about Otto and Hophtrig. We already have our answer about Choey.
Yes, this may be seen as Hophtrig trying to deflect an uncomfortable focus, but Hophtrig's doing so seems equally likely for an innocent or a guilty Hophtrig.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
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Otto notes that there is a group of 4. Otto knows he is innocent. Otto thinks all bets are off, both because the group has been awful at voting rightly, and because the FBC told him so.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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Otto, are you adding Eliabulon to the group of three, to make the group of four?
[Oops, sorry, I'm a dolt. Otto, what is your group of four?]
I have looked at the numbers of Innocent and Possessed left in the bus. By my calculations, we can afford one wrong vote in the next two votes, and another wrong vote after the next two votes, and still win,
If both of our next two votes are wrong, then we will probably lose.
I find this very interesting: that the order of when two wrong votes happen can determine whether we win or lose.
[ 07. April 2014, 13:45: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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I would like to hear Codine's thinking at this point.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
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Codine smiled, perhaps heartened by the recent success. "Besides that our doctor is clearly on the ball?
I think there is some logic in seeing Hophtrig and Otto as a team, but there's not nearly enough to go on.
My master is calling me, but I will try to write a more detailed post soon.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Otto, are you adding Eliabulon to the group of three, to make the group of four?
Ios (Autenrieth Road)
Hophtrig (Alban)
Grafinn Ekatarina Eliabulon (Eliab)
Codine (Gwai)
Otto notes that this kind of reasoning is unfortunate:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
I voted for Cho Bacca because 1) I suspected her anyway, and B) I couldn't really decide between her and Codine, and III) I decided voting with a known innocent is better than splitting it, because 4) we learn something useful either way.
I know I nominated Hophtrig, but that was a bit of pot stirring I did to see what might turn up. Turned out to be useful, even though I didn't push it due to a RealLyfe thing.
So there's that. She may end up being another Lesley, but gosh darn it I'm sick of waffling.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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Why do you find it unfortunate, Otto?
FWIW (not much... that and five cents will get you a hairful of Pepto Bismol): it pretty much agrees with my own reasoning for that vote.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Gwai:
Codine smiled, perhaps heartened by the recent success. "Besides that our doctor is clearly on the ball?"
About freakin' time, innit?
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
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The good Doctor John seems to be on a winning streak. Let us hoist John on our shoulders and parade Doctor John up and down the aisle.
Hophtrig's going to be pretty careful about accusing Ios, she's clever, well spoken and seems pretty honest. Besides, look at the (albeit richly deserved) fate that befell the last person who accused her.
But, as Hophtrig has said before, Hophtrig is a little querulous about narrowing the group down to three.
Anyway, the lights are on, so on with the memorial to Choey, Hophtrig is aiming for something a bit like this
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
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Otto finds it unfortunate that an innocent (another innocent) was voted off.
Someone tell Otto how we will avoid doing that again. Please.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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Otto, I don't believe that there's any way to assure we don't lynch an Innocent. Also, we all make our decisions differently. So we may have different ideas of who to vote for, or different ideas of why to vote for someone.
What were your reasons for voting for Codine originally? Hunches or intuitions are fine. We're not all assemblers of big logical cases like some are. If you can articulate some bit about the sense that led you to pick Codine for your vote instead of either of the other nominees, that will be extra ideas that the rest of us can consider.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
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Otto looked at what was said by and about Codine and Choey. It looked like Codine had less information to go on. Otto knew that absence of info did not mean necessarily anything. Otto also looked at Choey, what was said by and about. Otto also looked at Hophtrig, and thought back to a weird early on the bus alliance for a nomination of Otto.
Otto looked at Hophtrig's behaviour and Grafinn's behaviour and did not find that early suspected alliance continued. Otto is not sure though what made Grafinn be put off the list.
Otto worries about decisiveness and stopping waffling as a Good Thing. Otto does have intuition, strengthened by the FBC. At the moment his intuition suggests to him to worry about Hophtrig and Codine, but to also worry a little about the Grafinn.
At the same time, Otto wonders why the threats against him have not materialized. He is grateful for this, and suspects that the presumed innocents by the good-protectors have been targeted by the killer-meanies, and because people are unsure of him, he is being left to second string consideration. Second string consideration to both groups: meanies and goodies.
Otto feels uneasy and a little queasy about of this. This thinking makes him want a nap. So he naps. With the FBC all snuggly up to him.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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Curiously, on Dimthing Night Three during the Seven Hundred Mile Real Lyfe challenge, I found myself wondering if Hophtrig and Codine were Naughty. At that time Choey and Otto were seeming more Innocent to me than Hophtrig and Codine. I haven't been able to recapture what my reading/sense was of Beings' words that led me to that intuitive feel, so I've been ignoring it. Maybe I should reconsider it.
In any case, Hophtrig appears to figure in many combinations. Friend Hophtrig, sometimes our duty impels us to painful things and there is no good way out (fictitious friend A. nods her head in agreement). You can have as many hugs as you like on the way out the airlock door to retrieve our engine, cold comfort as that may be.
The time has come: I nominate Hophtrig.
[ 08. April 2014, 00:06: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
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Otto passes the bottle, puts the flute into his head pocket, chucks a handful of raisins down his throats, and with bright magenta tears in his vitreous and compound eyes, asks Hophtrig if he has a last meal request.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
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Hophtrig wants you to know you are making a big mistake.
Hophtrig is not going to make a kneejerk reactive nomination. Hophtrig will continue to leave it to cleverer people than Hophtrig to try and work out who is naughty. Ios, Hophtrig knows that Hophtrig was probably going to be nominated anyway, so Hophtrig doesn't blame Ios for the choice Ios has made.
Hophtrig knows that somehow, Hophtrig has come to look naughty. Hophtrig urges people to think hard about things, very hard.
Hophtrig is sorry, Ios, the Lesley memorial button prize will not be Ios' today, of this Hophtrig is sure.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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Oh Hophtrig, you and Otto tug at my heart strings. It's a brilliant cover for a Possessed Being, if you are Possessed (see, look what you've done to my nice serene confidence of yesterday).
If you, Hophtrig, are not Possessed, then the alternative is that at least one of Eliabulon or Codine is Possessed. And that's really depressing. If you and/or Otto are Possessed then you are telling sweet lies wrapped in fluff, and the worst side effect might be that I become friends with sweet creative Beings. But if either or both of Eliabulon or Codine is Possessed, then they are telling wicked deceitful lies designed to warp my sense of what's logical.
I wish some other Beings on this bus would wake up and have an opinion.
Here's where...
...Zapaterietxe shows up to assert a whole raft of incontrovertible facts proving beyond a shadow of a doubt that Hophtrig is guilty (and will Z improve his record to 2/5, or will he be completely wrong again?)...
...John shows up to be quite honestly logical and do his level best...
...Eliabulon shows up to point out some seemingly innocuous flaw in my reasoning which causes my whole carefully built analytical edifice to collapse...
...Codine shows up to say something so incredibly honest-sounding that I don't know how she does it; I can unfortunately imagine a Possessed Codine sounding exactly the same, which makes me nervous...
...Otto shows up with his flute and sings a wistful song with a crooked metre and expresses fear and concern and makes me feel like a complete heel for suspecting him too... (And now we're back to the beginning: brilliant cover if you're Possessed.)
My fictitious friend A. is in the fictititious state of California (it's got to be fictitious: no place real has weather this continuously gorgeous) at a fictitious conference and is too busy pondering questions such as "how to surface and operationalize business rules" and "do we need cubes" to help me out. However, she has offered to make me a random number generator if I need one at some point and can't find a dart board.
Hophtrig, if you're Possessed, then good, you'll be the one Possessed we need to send out the airlock today or tomorrow. If you're Innocent, then if I know that, then my mind will be freed to seriously consider Eliabulon and/or Codine as the terrifying Possessed mastermind. As it is I only have uncertainty, and my mind skitters away from E and C if it has any alternative. So that's why I think it's good to send you after our engine today.
But that's purely personal to how my mind thinks. Wake up sleeping Other Sleeping Beings! What do you-all think? And surely we're not going to have a lynching with only one nominee?
Hophtrig and Otto, while we're waiting for them to wake up, shall we sit in the HHH for old times' sake and play cards?
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
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Ios, time is short so I must be brief. But you're on the right track I think.
I think the guilty have no real defense, and so must rely on empathy to keep them alive. And note how, as we have drawn extolerably closer, two have grown so lovable and empathetic! It's not proof of possession, but taken together it's quite interesting, isn't it?
My RealLyfe is pulling now but I think you're right. They gave us a gift last night. We're going to use it.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
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If John looks at Hophtrig/Alban's signature, John will see an interesting point. Hophtrig's friendship, lovability and empathy has been there from the beginning. Hophtrig has not changed because Hophtrig has no defence. Hophtrig is, was and always will be your friend.
Hophtrig thinks few have a real defence on this bus, guilty and innocent both.
Ios, Hophtrig would love a game of cards in the hidey hole with you. Hophtrig hopes you have some cards, for the friends' old fount of everything the friends might need, our good friend Choey, has sadly left us.
[ 08. April 2014, 09:52: Message edited by: Alban ]
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
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Otto, you note that you feel/felt I had less information to go on. I will take that as a compliment. Remember that all but two of us don't have that much information to go on. That's why we keep lynching innocents. (That and two Possessed people who are surely messing with our votes.) Practically if our Possessed people were casually giving themselves away, we'd have caught them by now.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
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Codine turned back to the assembled.
"Also, To speak about my suspicions, it seems to me that it is very much in the mafia's favor that we don't have much to go on. And as much as I've been enjoying being on this ship with Hophtrig, he certainly doesn't give us as much to go on as I would like. So yes, I support that nomination.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
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"So" says Otto, "then Eliabulon, my dear Codine, or someone else? Whosit you think?"
Otto feels we are feeling our way through quicksand with mud as our map.
[ 08. April 2014, 14:57: Message edited by: no prophet ]
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Codine blinks. "I'm don't think I understand the question. Are you asking who I'd lynch now, or in the future or? Certainly of all the reasons to be suspicious of clan Eliab, not giving us enough to go on wouldn't be a reason!"
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
There is little more Hophtrig could have said than Hophtrig has.
Anything you want to know, anything more you think Hophtrig could give us to go on (apart from the sanitary receptacle, which Hophtrig must admit he has repurposed as the pouch in Hophtrig's Choey memorial piece, which Hophtrig is loath to disassemble) all you need do is ask. Hophtrig feels like Hophtrig is less of a mystery wrapped in an enigma than some others Hophtrig can think of.
Hophtrig likes Otto's simile. Hophtrig fears the current path the friends are establishing will see the friends inexorably mired in quicksand.
The words of a naughty trying to save itself or the words of an innocent trying to save Hophtrig's friends? They'd sound the same were they either. Hophtrig will steadfastly proclaim Hophtrig's goodness, and will not stop doing so.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
The more I consider the words that have been spoken, the actions taken, and my general gut feeling, the more I find myself questioning Hophtrig's innocence. I also find myself wondering about Otto.
You know, Otto has been on my radar for quite some time. It started out because Otto had said a lot of nothing. It got a little better, then a little worse, then a little better. Right now I'm back to suspecting Otto again. I don't have a long, convincing list of reasons why. At the moment I only have my intuition.
Recently Otto and Hophtrig have been working the empathy angle really hard. Hophtrig says, "Oh, I'm just fun, lovable, little me. I've been loveable this whole time." That is true. Loveable to the point of annoying before the bus broke down, then cooling it suddenly. Why? Then as soon as he's a major suspect again, he returns to it. Again, why?
I freely admit that as an accusation it kind of stinks; being loveable is the worst reason to suspect someone ever. I'm not accusing Hophtrig or Otto for that reason. I'm trying to figure out patterns of behavior, and this pattern makes me pause and wonder. Hophtrig will come back with some answer, and I'll hear it and think about it, but so far his answers haven't actually answered my questions. Because I honestly don't think any answer he gives really can answer my questions, because I'm not sure how to really ask my questions in a way he can answer.
I'm sick and tired of waffling. I can feel good about a vote for Hophtrig. I can feel good about a vote for Otto. Whichever one seems the most wickedest (or the least goodest, as the case may be) when it's time to vote will get my vote.
Oh, but Otto isn't a nomination? He is now. I nominate Otto von Biggleswarpski
[ 08. April 2014, 19:57: Message edited by: Barefoot Friar ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
I would like to think aloud about Ios' and Otto's question: Could Eliabulon be possessed?
Well now. Joostein very subtly suggested that she was. Let's look back over Joostein's gallows speech, shall we?
Joostein believed Cho Bacca and Otto to be innocent -- we now know Choey was, but I'm spectacularly unconvinced about Otto. On the other hand, he believed Zapaterietxe was the other Possessed and that Codine was the sympathizer, and we've seen that in reality the sympathizer was Ja'ayem. Zapaterietxe has claimed innocent unreadable, and I have no reason to doubt him. So Joostein's clearly not batting 1.000 here. Still, he does have a few interesting thoughts.
For starters, he believed that the Grafinn's list of rules and list of passengers (especially so quickly after introducing herself) was a bad sign. He believed that she was talking a lot without really saying much; he felt that lists of things were ways to avoid actually saying anything of substance, while seeming to be helpful. He was already suspicious from the get-go, but this pushed him over the edge. From then on he was trying to find guilt in everything the Grafinn did and said.
Second, he believed that Eliabulon was the mastermind who had figured out that both Crimson and Celandine were the detectives. He also claimed that the Grafinn's waffling over whether to vote for Reppik or Otto was a sign that Reppik was a sacrifice. Reppik's terrible defense, coupled with Eliabulon's waffling, made Joostein think that that the Grafinn couldn't find a good way out of voting for Reppik. He further believed that the Grafinn actually strengthened her position by doing so, because she seemed more believable for having voted for a known guilty.
Third, it bothered him greatly that Zapaterietxe (and Codine, to an extent) was defending Eliabulon. He seems to have believed that their immediate defense meant that they were all in cahoots with each other. Now, on this one thing I have a small amount of sympathy for Joostein's argument. Zapaterietxe did say a couple different reasons why he thought the Grafinn was innocent, and to me they seemed slightly... outlandish. I even pointed that out once or twice, but we ended up changing focus before they got answered. At the same time, I understand Zapaterietxe's point of view and general feelings on the matter. What Zapa was humorously (and at least once, explicitly) pointing out was that the Grafinn was acting like her normal, innocent self.
Since I've already interjected my own thoughts about Zapa's defense of Eliabulon, I may as well comment further on my own suspicions. I quickly became suspicious of the Grafinn, although I allowed Zapaterietxe to talk me out of that for a while. Then, on the third Dimthing day, I found my suspicions rising again -- whether that was the magic tongue of the Viking Charmer or whether it was good intuition remains to be seen. I then purposely bedded my suspicion, especially after we lynched Ja'ayem and found him to be the sympathizer. I've never fully cleared the Grafinn, and I must admit that if she turned out to be guilty I wouldn't be surprised.
Another point of surprise for me is the fact that she has not yet been targeted by the Possessed. Why not? If I were possessed and she were innocent, I would be most afraid of her because she is such an experienced bus passenger. She has, to quote my grandfather, "been up th' crick and over th' mountain." My only explanations at the moment are that either the Possessed are hoping we will grow restless and will lynch her, or else she is herself Possessed. The Possessed are as thick in this investigation as anyone else; they are well aware of how uneasy some of us feel about her, even in the face of trying to trust her. Or maybe uneasy is the wrong word. How about wondering in the backs of a few minds? Not quite trusting, not quite untrusting, just kind of unconsciously wondering and being slightly afraid. Kind of like the thing living in Amy Pond's unused bedroom.
Returning to Joostein's arguments, I believe we've covered the essence of what he was trying to articulate. There may be a few other things, previously, that I'm missing but I think we've got the important bits.
I know that I just a moment ago raised a few doubts about the Grafinn, but I still do not think that she is guilty. I've pointed out my own thoughts, nothing more. I did not, in my review of what Joostein had said, read the Grafinn's rebuttal -- although as I remember it, she was mainly planning to allow his guilty verdict to do that for her, and when he was innocent the matter was kind of dropped, and we ended up lynching Ja'ayem the next day. Since then, no one has really questioned the Grafinn's innocence. Perhaps by thinking this aloud someone else may spot something I've missed, or perhaps it will put help unfounded suspicions to bed. At any rate, I did not nominate the Grafinn because I believe Hophtrig and Otto are the two remaining Possessed, and I intend to see one of them off the bus this evening.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
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If you vote Otto off, you will be voting off an innocent. Otto and FBC are telling you straight and true. Like Meatloaf, Otto will swear up and down and on his mother's grave, unto the end of time about his innocence. Or on a stack of waffles.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Gwai:
Codine blinks. "I'm don't think I understand the question. Are you asking who I'd lynch now, or in the future or? Certainly of all the reasons to be suspicious of clan Eliab, not giving us enough to go on wouldn't be a reason!"
Otto is asking, because he wants to understand if you are a friendly or a meanie in part, and also because he thinks he will wait to vote until he sees the lay of the land on this one, because he voted sooner than most the last time, and he was much more right than the majority. Otto has his ideas but waiting just now.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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Otto, for the love of Pete, tell us your ideas now. Please please please please please.
Ios offers Otto a turquoise handkerchief to wipe his magenta tears.
As far as I'm concerned Hophtrig is up first. Then reevaluate everything for Dimthing tomorrow in light of what we discover Dimthing today.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by no prophet:
If you vote Otto off, you will be voting off an innocent. Otto and FBC are telling you straight and true. Like Meatloaf, Otto will swear up and down and on his mother's grave, unto the end of time about his innocence. Or on a stack of waffles.
Two Out of Three Ain't Bad.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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Otto, can I eat the waffles after you're done swearing on them? Or are these Hophtrig's last meal, in which case I'll keep my greedy little waffle mitts strictly off.
[ 09. April 2014, 00:38: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto thinks that we should be questioning the Grafinn and considering her. He is not sure between Codine and Hophtrig. This is a gamble, or a game of chance. As is said on Planet 11, when the wolves are chasing you, throw them a raisin cookie but don't stop to bake a cake.
Otto considers that the ant-waffle attitude has probably gotten into the pancakes. And left out the raisins. He thinks that he has to revert to his initial thoughts, right at the beginning of the game, because, as is also said on Planet 11, you shouldn't judge a schnook who is providing the covers, that Hophtrig has only incriminated himself insofart as he has voted oddly with the Grafinn one time. The Grafinn has been strangely silent for a long time, and probably thinks she is insulated from the waffle people. But she hasn't said much, and Otto doesn't get how it is that she has been thought of as good, when she mightn't be.
Otto thinks that the possibility of the Grafinn and Codine as naughty naughty is rather very. But he also sees the surge toward Hophtrig. He considers that as possible, and might trade a Codine for a Hophtrig, but he becomes very suspicious of the Grafinn. He decided to have a pint of rather dark ale mid-thought, got out a pump and drained himself, then chawed up some raisins. Then he said, if you can't lay eggs get out of the closet (another Planet 11 saying), and decided to blow up his friend and enema Hophtrig even though this might be seen as a deflection from the nomination of himself by a nice one who is saying rather naughty things just now. Otto went with his friend Ios. We're having waffles!
As for two out of three ain't bad, Otto isn't that fond of meatloaf, and neither is the FBC.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Otto, for the love of Pete, tell us your ideas now. Please please please please please.
As far as I'm concerned Hophtrig is up first. Then reevaluate everything for Dimthing tomorrow in light of what we discover Dimthing today.
If Hophtrig were naughty, the friends would be looking seriously at Otto, the friends' theories being vindicated.
Can Hophtrig make a serious recommendation, please. Though there seems to be a determination to be rid of Hophtrig, Hophtrig advises you to begin serious discussions of the situation and ramifications should Hophtrig leave you and be proven innocent. Or should you prefer Otto, think what will happen were Otto proven good. And by think, Hophtrig does not mean for you to express sentiment or self flagellation, there'll be plenty of time for that later. Hophtrig means Hophtrig's friends to think on where Hophtrig's friends will look next. The easy targets will be nearly all gone.
Otto, or Hophtrig should Otto be thrown, will be the last easy survivor. Simple is a synonym for easy, remember, is it possible that Otto, Choey and Hophtrig, are patsies set up by truly diabolical fiends?
Hophtrig is not naughty, think on what you will do should you invite him to leave and the airlock prove Hophtrig's goodness.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
If Hophtrig turns out to be Innocent, I will shine the brightest light I can on Eliabulon and Codine. At least one of them will have to be Possessed.
If someone wants to nominate one of them now, I might be able to be convinced (you know me, the original waffle). I'm trying to figure out what it would take to move my vote. But John and Zapaterietxe would also have to be convinced this round, because I don't want to vote apart from them.
If we can lynch a Possessed either this round or the next, then I think the Innocents can win. That's why I'm not quite terrified that we might lynch Hophtrig this round and find out he's Innocent, because it might be a step we have to take in order to then be a step closer to finding the Possessed.
I'm trying to figure out if I can bring myself to believe in the essential falseness of a Possessed Eliabulon or Codine, without being forced into it by a certain knowledge of an Innocent Hophtrig.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig understands what Ios is saying, Hophtrig might just be expendable. But if Hophtrig (or Otto) is to be expended, start shining that light now, please. The light can be turned off if the being asked to leave proves naughty, but some lights take a while to warm up - now would be a good time to get the light up and running in preparation for the friends' need of it tonight and tomorrow. Turning it on tomorrow may be too late.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Hophtrig, no one is expendable, and everyone is expendable. The order in which things have progressed means that right now it feels to me like I need to get certainty about you before being able to face the awful things it says about me if it turns out that I have so far been hoodwinked completely by Eliabulon and/or Codine. That's not because you're expendable; it's because it's hard for me to really consider all the possibilities when my poor deluded intuition has been convinced to think one particular thing. I fixated, for better or worse, on Hophtrig and Otto, or Hophtrig and Codine, and I can't shake that idea loose enough to find myself really believing a different vote would be better.
If I know for certain you are Innocent, at the cost, yes, of a mistaken lynching, then I will find a bunch of possibilities have been pruned and I will be forced to believe in the fact that at least one of Eliabulon and/or Codine is Possessed.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
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What Hophtrig is saying is, one of Codine or Eliabulon is very likely naughty, as Hophtrig is not. Prepare yourself, Ios, prepare yourself, you have a nasty shock coming. What card game wuld you like to play?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Trying to shine some light in other directions:
I think Zapaterietxe is naive in his reasons for trusting both me and Eliabulon: that we engage with his arguments and find holes, and that we answer his questions without evasion. I'm Innocent, so Zapaterietxe has reached a correct conclusion at least in my case. But his premises are wrong: Z underestimates the level of effort and deception the criminal members of Clan A.Road at least are willing to carry out.
If one judges that the more one speaks while trying to conceal Guilt, the more likely it is one will slip up, then perhaps that is evidence against Codine, who has spoken very little and thus has fewer chances to slip up than the verbose Eliabulon: at least if one judges Codine and Eliabulon to have equally Not Slipped Up, At Least Not In Obvious Ways.
If one does accept Z's criteria (which I don't, but perhaps they are often true anyway, even if not true about Clan A.Road), then Codine has been more evasive, I think, than Eliabulon.
I've described earlier how uneasy it makes me feel that I don't always agree with Eliabulon on this bus tour. I don't know the correct interpretation of that, though.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
That was cross-posted.
Hophtrig, how about we play hearts? Everybeing from different planets always has such interesting different variations to add.
Fictitious friend A. has just had a nasty nasty shock, right in the middle of enjoying the Anaheim sunshine so much and celebrating being on vacation starting in 12 hours. Perhaps a nasty shock on the bus tour will be a good diversion.
Hophtrig and Otto, perhaps we should lock ourselves in the HHH. Maybe we could persuade Z to move the single handle from the outside to the inside and that would keep us safe from horrible confusion. Z has been wrong in many things, but I think he's still very good with door handles.
Hophtrig, if you really believe we should be examining E and/or C, why don't you nominate one of them this round? (That's a real question, not a goading rhetorical question.)
And finally, I forgot to think about this before: what did we learn from finding Choey to be Innocent?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
The suspicious thing that Eliabulon has done, over and over and over, is reject all of my ideas that there might be extra layers of multiple bluff going on. Perhaps this is a big neon sign to Eliabulon's guilt: if Possessed, she herself has been doing it with many levels of multiple bluff, and would hardly want the Assembled Beings to start considering that anyone on board bus might possibly engage in multiple bluff.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Watch that light, it's dangerous to shine it, even vaguely, on oneself. Zapaterietxe doesn't like that. Maybe that's a bit naive, too.
Hophtrig knows Ios is only exploring possibilities. Hophtrig thinks poker would be a bad idea, Hophtrig thinks bluffing might not be a strong point for either Hophtrig or Ios (or Otto, either, should he care to play)
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig's crossposting too.
Hophtrig has little to use, Hophtrig knows full well Hophtrig will be accused of muddying the waters, but things couldn't look much bleaker than they do. Hophtrig said Hophtrig would leave it to cleverer people to try and expose the naughty, and Ios is cleverer than Hophtrig. Since Ios can't, Hophtrig is going to nominate the Graffin, Ekaterina Eliabulon . The worst that can happen is that which happened to Ja'ayem when he nominated Ios, and Hophtrig is ready.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
[Oh, look, another cross-post.]
Poker would be a very bad idea, indeed. In person, Ios, just like fictitious A., has a completely transparent face. However, A. did once win a round of Liar's Dice by using the fame of her transparent face by covering her mouth during a call, as if trying to cover up her telltale Smile When Trying To Bluff By Making A False Call. So all the others thought A. was bluffing in her call, and acted accordingly. Turns out A. was telling the truth in her call, and won big on that round easily, because of others not folding when they should have. The bluff was a double bluff, carried out by her hand covering her mouth.
Future criminal members of Clan A.Road are going to curse their relative Ios for burning all their potential strategies by revealing them.
[ 09. April 2014, 08:06: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I don't think Ios is cleverer than Hophtrig. Ios is just practiced at imagining possible deceptions, once she puts her mind to it.
Ja'ayem as Second Partridge would explain one remaining mystery: why, if he was trying to decoy us away from Hophtrig, was he so very clumsy and obvious about it.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hearts it is, Ios. Anyone else want to play?
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Otto: "I think we should question Eliabulon. So I vote for Hophtrig." Wait, what? That makes no sense, Ja-ayem -- I mean, Otto. The polls aren't open yet, for starters, and for another, if you suspect someone then nominate them and say why. Or at least that you don't know why but that you do.
So Ios builds an interesting case on the Grafinn. I shall consider it, because it makes sense to me.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by no prophet:
quote:
Originally posted by Gwai:
Codine blinks. "I'm don't think I understand the question. Are you asking who I'd lynch now, or in the future or? Certainly of all the reasons to be suspicious of clan Eliab, not giving us enough to go on wouldn't be a reason!"
Otto is asking, because he wants to understand if you are a friendly or a meanie in part, and also because he thinks he will wait to vote until he sees the lay of the land on this one, because he voted sooner than most the last time, and he was much more right than the majority. Otto has his ideas but waiting just now.
Codine nodded. "Basically, I suspect that at at least one of you (Otto) and Hophtrig is Possessed, but I don't know which. Both have now been nominated. So, unless I become more such which is which in the time to come, I will vote to follow the known innocents."
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Having heard the rest of the discussion, Codine felt he should add something. "Re myself, I'm not sure there is much to say. I tend to feel that members of my clan are never exceptionally talkative, so I suspect I am typical there. However, one never knows oneself properly. Am I incorrect?
Re Eliabulon, I could see her as guilty. She doesn't strike me as the most obvious suspect, but then from what I know of her clan, well she wouldn't, would she. My problem is that I know I tend to be biased in favor of people who give me more to work with, but I'm never sure how well I am accounting for that known bias."
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto considers Hophtrip and Grafinn, in that order.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto's fake life friend is quite busy just now, and it will be several hours to post again.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Having re-read much of the transcript from this bus trip, I can say I feel much better about voting for the Grafinn than I did a little bit ago. I don't have anything really solid to go on, other than the bits I outlined previously. Of course, I led the lynching of Ja'ayem on less...
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Fictitious friend A. would like to report that hydrocortisone cream tastes terrible. How does she know? Why yes, you guessed it: A. has just brushed her teeth with hydrocortisone cream. She doesn't know whether to
or
.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
I suspect a mistake has been made.
Think on this dilemma. There were two long trips to be taken:
One, a serious conference in Atlanta with professionals.
One, a ride half way to the planet Dimthing with strange creatures with even stranger accents, habits and thoughts.
There's were two people to take these trips:
One is sensible, erudite, thoughtful and wise.
One is quirky and does strange things like washing her hair with Pepto Bismol and brushing her teeth with hydrocortisone cream. Goodness knows what's next, wasabi guacamole or toilet cleaner bodywash?
Hophtrig suspects that the wrong one of you two got on the bus, Ios. That said, the friends on board are mighty grateful Ios did get on, things'd be even more challenging if we didn't have you.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
So nominations:
Hophtrig (Alban) nominated by Ios.
Otto von Biggleswarpski (No Prophet) nominated by John the Less.
Grafinn Ekaterina Eliabulon (Eliab) nominated by Hophtrig.
TESS (This Eviction Should Stop).
Votes by Friday evening please.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto didn't actually vote yet, because votes were not open when he thought he would go for Hophtrig. So Otto has parked his brain next to his kidneys because the brain is actually a cooling radiator for the kidneys in his anatomy, and the kidneys always do the thinking on Planet 11 where he's from.
Otto notes that he had thought of Hophtrig, Codine and the Grafinn. Hophtrig nominated the Grafinn as Otto implied that Hophtrig and the Grafinn were on Otto's list. John the Less questioned this of Otto, and seems to have by his response prompted the nomination of the Grafinn by Hoppy, and also annoyed John enough (the disliker of waffles) to nominate Otto. John has seemed piqued with our touchy feely ways. Sorry John for not being as bright and discerning as you, though Otto notes that voting innocents off has been a result of haste....
Otto notes that Ios, whom he respects, has nominated Hophtrig. Otto sees this, and notes that he suspected Hophtrig very early in the trip. He also notes Hophtrig's feeling of vulnerability and thus nominating the Grafinn to split the vote that might come Hoppy's way.
Otto fears that he has a difficult choice. If he votes Hophtrig and this is wrong, then he would want to have voted Grafinn. Or switchy changey, vice versa.
Otto is curious about why John nominated him, except that he annoyed John. Otto has been careful to think but also to feel his way to a vote. Not wanting to evict a good one. Otto is happy he was right the last time in not voting for Choey. Even though he almost wanted to change his vote last time. But didn't, couldn't.
The logical choice for Otto would be to follow Ios' thinking, who, even though washing with non-ablutionary substances, and even though brushing teeth with nondentifricial substances, does not seem at all odd in real life on the bus.
On the other hand, could Ios be wrong and should Otto consider the Grafinn? Because he did think and feel that the Grafinn was somewhat giving the vibes - and that's what they were weren't they?
Otto notes that we have some fake time to dance, eat and chew, play music and he likes to consult with his bus friends and the feather boa constrictor a little more before really committing to a course of action. He also notes for Ios's fake friend that he recalls being told by his imaginary friend about brushing teeth with diaper cream. And finding dog kibble a reasonable treat, if not a little sawdusty.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Ios proposed Hophtrig should nominate the Graffin or Codine. Hophtrig looked at what Ios had said and suggested the Graffin, as Ios could not, having already nominated Hophtrig.
John has been suggesting a longstanding suspicion of both Otto and Hophtrig as the conspirators. Otto and Hophtrig both know that theory is wrong, so someone else is involved. Ios argued very well for the Graffin as the other, hence Hophtrig's nomination.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by no prophet:
Otto is curious about why John nominated him.
You missed the bit about me suspecting you since Reppik's demise. So I'll go ahead and tell you:
I've suspected you, off and on, since Reppik's demise. Or to be more specific, since Reppik implicated you in that terrible excuse for a defense speech. Since then, I've found several other things that made me suspect you.
It has nothing to do with you "irritating me". It has everything to do with all the other evidence that has slowly piled up around you.
That being said, I am most likely not voting for you this time. My eyes are still on you, but I think it is more important to look at the others right now.
The more I consider, the more concerned I am that the Grafinn is guilty. I'm not casting a vote quite yet, but I am strongly considering her as my candidate. I'm actually leaning more toward her at the moment than toward Hophtrig. I hate to change my mind yet again, but I can't really help it.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
The way the Possessed will win is to redirect our attention whenever we are close to lynching one of them, and to sow seeds of confusion and deceit when we seem united. We've done a marvellous job of working together the past two Dimthing days, and this cannot be a good thing for the Possessed. At the same time, we lost our way a couple times. We unanimously lynched Ja'ayem, but we had originally been planning to lynch Choey. We next lynched Choey, but found that she was innocent. The whole day leading up to lynching Choey, we were unsure, uncertain, unguided. We ended up lynching Choey because she seemed most suspicious at the time, and because we needed to lynch someone and she was convenient. It's a terrible reason, but it was the best anyone could offer. Two in particular mentioned (rather too loudly, I thought) that we had lynched an innocent, and that we needed to be certain the next time, yet didn't really offer any good alternatives. One of those two voted for someone else, but then tried to change his vote later so that he could also vote for Choey -- so he's not exactly without sin in this one.
Now we've set out to lynch one, and then something else has arisen. Is this fortuitous intuition? Or is this a dastardly diversion designed to divide? Would we be better served going with our original direction, ignoring the conversations of the day until we know the verdict of the lynching? Or would we be better off going with what we've considered, knowing that we can renew today's line of inquiry with renewed vigor on the morrow, should the new line prove a false lead?
I say the latter. Eliabulon, if guilty, is a most heinous and dangerous criminal. If innocent, she would be helpful, but to be quite honest, if she's innocent we know upon whom to call tomorrow. In other words, if we lynch the Grafinn and she's innocent, then we have the option to allow Hophtrig to follow her tomorrow. And if we lynch the Grafinn and she is guilty, then we will have made a wise choice.
Ios, I want to hear from you before I go further. And Zapaterietxe. Am I going crazy again?
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig is with you, John (of course Hophtrig is, it's quite good for Hophtrig),
Hophtrig nominated on Ios' suggestion, which of course would potentially save Hophtrig's hide. So Hophtrig thinks the consequences of nominating the Graffin need to be split.
Ios can have the credit if we are right, for Ios suggested the idea. Hophtrig will happily take the blame, should we be wrong. Should we be wrong, Hophtrig will, indeed, be next in line. Hophtrig cannot promise to vote for Hophtrig (Hophtrig is not that nutty), but Hophtrig accepts his demise as an inevitable fate should this be wrong.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ios has no frigging clue right now. Let me sleep on it.
Ios turns over and goes back to sleep where she's dreaming about spending all day at Disneyland with fictitious A.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
A faint haze appears at the front
I'm less sure of myself than I was before, so I'm going to watch for a bit, if anyone's expecting dramatic pronouncements. Carry on, and know you're not just being paranoid if you think somebody (or something) is watching every little thing you say.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
At the very least, I'd like to hear what Eliabulon has to say before voting, as she has both been absent for awhile, and stands accused yet again.
Ios goes back to sleep. She is now dreaming that she is debating with fictitious A. which of them should have come on the bus trip, and which gone to the conference. A. claims to have checked the hotel bathroom and found no toilet cleaner, so a safe shower is expected in the fictitious morning.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
A faint haze appears at the front
I'm less sure of myself than I was before, so I'm going to watch for a bit, if anyone's expecting dramatic pronouncements. Carry on, and know you're not just being paranoid if you think somebody (or something) is watching every little thing you say.
Just get your hat ready. I think you gave your mustard to Ios.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig was going to ask Zapaterietxe if Zapaterietxe has a millinery recipe book. Hophtrig suggested there could be no button for Ios today, but then Ios had her stroke of genius and suggested the Graffin. Hophtrig might just join Zapaterietxe in Zapaterietxe's millinericious meal.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Dimthing to Grafinn. Dimthing to Grafinn. Come in, Grafinn. We are missing you. We are waiting for you to come and as usual poke holes in all of Ios' ideas.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Very well then, Ios. I'm not overly hopeful, but I see your point.
Since I've not given a formal list of things I suspect, I shall do so now.
- The first one was originally Ios' idea: "The suspicious thing that Eliabulon has done, over and over and over, is reject all of my ideas that there might be extra layers of multiple bluff going on. Perhaps this is a big neon sign to Eliabulon's guilt: if Possessed, she herself has been doing it with many levels of multiple bluff, and would hardly want the Assembled Beings to start considering that anyone on board bus might possibly engage in multiple bluff." This has two sides. One is Occam's Razor: The simplest answer is usually the correct one. Yet the other is that we've tried Occam's Razor and both times lynched an innocent. Despite the evidence right in front of everyone that there was at least some level of double bluff going on, some have denied it. Why? To avert attention?
- The one who realized that that Crimson was a detective was smart. I realized she was, but I thought Zapaterietxe was, as well; she died because I chose the wrong one to protect. And that person was especially smart to know (or at least bet on) the fact that I wouldn't be protecting her. Who have we got who could have done this?
- The one who realized that Celandine was a detective was even smarter. I never caught her reference until she was dead. It was subtle. Who have we got who could have done this?
- This one comes from my earlier discussion about this: "Another point of surprise for me is the fact that she has not yet been targeted by the Possessed. Why not? If I were possessed and she were innocent, I would be most afraid of her because she is such an experienced bus passenger. She has, to quote my grandfather, 'been up th' crick and over th' mountain.' My only explanations at the moment are that either the Possessed are hoping we will grow restless and will lynch her, or else she is herself Possessed." I thought taking out Daisy was a good move because it left us with no leads, but why did they not attack the Grafinn? Attacking me the next night was worth a shot, since there was no telling whom I might be protecting -- even though I had already explicitly said I would be protecting myself. Attacking the Grafinn any of the past three nights would have been smart. But here she is, still alive. Why?*
- Joostein railed and raged against the Grafinn, and I see the roots of it even before the bus crashed and the roles announced. This colors what evidence Joostein turned up. However, he did have a good point or three. He speculated that Reppik's poor defense was in fact designed. He believed that a half decent Possessed team could have written Reppik a good speech, since they could collaborate and talk behind the scenes. Joostein postulated that the reason they didn't was so that the Grafinn could establish herself as an innocent early on; he believed that by doing so she would ensure her survival until the late game. He further believed that the sacrifice was unintentional at first. From my perspective, it went like this: Zapaterietxe had begun working the Reppik angle almost immediately. Reppik survived the first day, but I nominated him first thing on the second day, Zapaterietxe and I led the bandwagon, and in the middle of it all the Grafinn started waffling over whether to vote for Otto or Reppik. Joostein believed that the Grafinn decided to vote for Reppik so that she could use that as cover. Looking at this from the perspective that four days† of mayhem gives me, I think that Joostein could possibly be right for once. What if Otto is the other guilty one, and the Grafinn was forced to choose between two guilties? Or what if Otto is innocent, and the Grafinn wanted to vote for him, but felt forced by popular demand to vote for Reppik?
Let's look at the voting record. The nominations on Dimthing Day Two were: Otto, nominated by Hophtrig; Reppik Tew, nominated by John the Less; Hophtrig, nominated by Otto, and of course "No Lynching" (a.k.a. TESS). At the start we had fourteen beings alive, and thus needed seven votes to lynch. Choey began the voting process by voting for Hophtrig. Ja'ayem voted for Otto, as did Hophtrig. Zapateriexte came and voted for "surprise, surprise" Reppik. Celandine also voted for Reppik. Lesley then voted for No Lynching, and then I voted for Reppik. At that point, the vote totals were: Hophtrig, 1; Otto, 2, Reppik, 3, No Lynching, 1.
Ios voted for Reppik, which removed both Hophtrig and No Lynching from death row. Otto also voted for Reppik. This meant that both Otto and Reppik were possibilities, and Reppik led 5 votes to 2.
Joostein voted for Otto.
Eliabulon, who had been waffling for some time now, voted for Reppik. In doing so, she removed the possibility of lynching Otto. Only one more vote was needed to lynch Reppik, and Daisy flew in from no where and gave the needed vote. Reppik voted for No Lynching (before Daisy voted, as a matter of fact), and Codine voted last, for Reppik. That meant that the final numbers were: Hophtrig, 1; Otto, 3; Reppik, 8; No Lynching, 2.
There are a few interesting tidbits in all this. First, Reppik's speech and vote implicate Otto. Second, the Grafinn's seeming inability to choose between Otto and Reppik could point to possession on Otto's part. Voting for Hophtrig was out of the question; Ios had already prevented Hophtrig from being lynched that day. Voting for No Lynching was also impossible, because the Grafinn had been calling for a lynching since the moment she stepped aboard‡. She really had no choice but Otto or Reppik. - When Joostein role claimed, the Grafinn said the real doctor should counter-claim. Zapaterietxe said the real doctor should shut up. Zapaterietxe was right; although I've prevented two deaths so far, I feel I could have been much more effective if I had stayed quiet like Zapaterietxe said. The Possessed want me outed; that way they can target me and the others as they wish. This doesn't by itself implicate Eliabulon, but taken with everything else it makes sense. If she's guilty, then of course she wants a counter claim. Mine was the only power role left.
These all add up to something that isn't quite right. Something doesn't quite add up, until I consider that the Grafinn could be guilty. Then it starts to make sense to me.
I will go ahead and state that I could see any two of Otto, Hophtrig, and Eliabulon being guilty, and I know one of them must not be. Adding Codine to the mix only makes it more difficult. Otto and Eliabulon are my two prime suspects at the moment. If we lynch any of them we can learn enough to continue, whether they be innocent or guilty.
______
*Zapaterietxe pointed out similar thinking in regards to Cho Bacca, and they never took him up on it. So admittedly there's not a lot to this line of questioning. I include it here for the sake of being complete.
†Two things. First, all references to time are in Dimthing time unless otherwise noted. Second, remember the famous Four Days speech? What the heck happened to that?
‡This was what made me suspect her in the first place, although Zapaterietxe explained it is her normal way of doing things. I'm sorry, but it seems really dangerous and bloodthirsty to me. It's far too easy to lynch an innocent on the first day, and doing so gives us too little to go on to justify such a sacrifice.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
That's an interesting assemblage of evidence, John. A few questions and observations:
What famous Four Days speech?
Like Eliabulon, I tend also to think it could be a good idea to lynch someone on Day One. If we delay our first lynching until Day Two, what do we know on Day Two that we didn't know on Day One? Knowing the name of one murder victim isn't much advantage for a Day Two first lynching over a Day One first lynching.
I can't quite work out whether it can be right for a false role claim not to be challenged. That seems wierd to me. Everything is wierd on this bus trip, though, so maybe you're right John.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally spoken by Ios:
What famous Four Days speech?
This one.
quote:
Like Eliabulon, I tend also to think it could be a good idea to lynch someone on Day One. If we delay our first lynching until Day Two, what do we know on Day Two that we didn't know on Day One? Knowing the name of one murder victim isn't much advantage for a Day Two first lynching over a Day One first lynching.
We were able to suss out that Reppik was guilty on the first day. I didn't feel like we had enough to convict him on when the voting was open, but by the time the second day dawned I thought we did. Perhaps if the timing of everyone's RealLyfe had happened differently, I and the others could have been convinced of his guilt before voting opened. Perhaps I'm just a newbie to all this, but I don't think the first day really gives us enough information to successfully lynch a mafioso unless something exceedingly lucky happens. I agree we need to be willing and able to take advantage of strokes of luck, but I don't think they happen often. Taking an extra day gives more time to figure people out. This is all tangential to the charge, so don't count it among evidence. But that's what I think.
quote:
I can't quite work out whether it can be right for a false role claim not to be challenged. That seems weird to me. Everything is weird on this bus trip, though, so maybe you're right John.
Well, had I remained silent, we would have likely lynched Joostein anyway. And then we would have seen that he wasn't the doctor, and thus I would have been left to work in peace. This one is a bit more iffy than the bit about lynching on the first day, but I felt that in our specific situation Zapaterietxe was correct.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto finds this very interesting. Before reading this all, he was thinking overnight of 2 of these: Hophtrig, Eliabulon and Codine. The first 2, he was thinking he didn't know which was more prominent in his mind, and the third, was the third.
Otto knows that he is innocent, but understands that somehow the wrong idea has been planted that he is not. It is wrong, and Otto doesn't seem to have the means to persuade about it.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Interesting thinking, John. I will have to process it and re-evaluate Eliabulon to decide what I think. Only one small thing I see to disagree with: You note that Eliabulon saved Otto with her vote. Note though that she helped to lynch a Possessed person. So if she and Otto and our remaining Possessed, she was choosing to help lynch one of her comrades above another.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Gwai:
Interesting thinking, John. I will have to process it and re-evaluate Eliabulon to decide what I think. Only one small thing I see to disagree with: You note that Eliabulon saved Otto with her vote. Note though that she helped to lynch a Possessed person. So if she and Otto and our remaining Possessed, she was choosing to help lynch one of her comrades above another.
Yes, that is a hole in my argument. Another is the fact that Reppik was unreadable, a trait that would have been valuable later on. So why sacrifice him? Then again, by the time she voted, it was pretty clear Reppik was doomed. She may have been intending to do something else but was forced by convention to vote for Reppik.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Gwai:
Interesting thinking, John. I will have to process it and re-evaluate Eliabulon to decide what I think. Only one small thing I see to disagree with: You note that Eliabulon saved Otto with her vote. Note though that she helped to lynch a Possessed person. So if she and Otto and our remaining Possessed, she was choosing to help lynch one of her comrades above another.
Wait, no, sorry. I was distracted. What I should have said is, Yes, that is exactly right.
I'll assume for a moment that the three were Otto, Eliabulon and Reppik. Reppik and Otto were both nominated, along with Hophtrig. However, Choey was the only one to vote for him. By the time Zapaterietxe came along, there was a legit bandwagon going against Otto. Then several voted for Reppik, so that by the time Eliabulon decided to vote, she really only had two valid choices: Reppik or Otto. Hophtrig had already been cleared, and TESS would have been too obvious. So a guilty Eliabulon would have to weigh which one was more likely to get lynched. The consensus seemed to have turned toward Reppik, although Joostein had just voted for Otto. I guess my play in that would be to vote for Reppik, thinking that the next two probably would as well.
If we assume that Reppik, Eliabulon, and someone other than Otto is guilty, then I don't understand why it played out that way. Voting for Otto would have been the clear, obvious, and mainly safe choice. The only other reason I could think of to vote for Reppik in that situation would be in an early sacrifice situation, where Eliabulon was seeking to build innocent cred by voting for a guilty being.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
"Honestly that makes me want to lynch Otto then. That may sound backward, but until she left town Eliabulon was contributing, so if she is innocent she is useful, but if Otto is guilty we know Eliabulon must be also. As I said though I must admit a bias toward talkers. (Good thing you are a known innocent ; )"
Codine paused and then resumed:
"Not that you are useless Otto. But Eliabulon is more analytical."
[ 10. April 2014, 16:59: Message edited by: Gwai ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Hmm, interesting point. Otto has been suspicious to me since the beginning.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Then if Otto is innocent, you would consider Eliabulon to also be innocent? Which means to Otto that the guilty must be drawn from the group: Hophtrig, Codine and Ios. Otto believes Ios is innocent, which means that the guilty two are Hophtig and Codine. Otto has consulted with the FBC on this, and the FBC prompts him to say: "Hophtrig is the one to vote off this round, and Codine the next, because Otto and Ios are the innocents, and mark my word carefully, because Otto is innocent."
The reasoning that would vote Otto off may seem logical except for one nasty little fact of his innocence. Otto did not vote for the innocent Choey....
But seeing as this reasoning comes from the suspected guilty Codine, Otto considers that Codine is spreading FUD and trying to deflect from Codine's guilt. Which makes Otto more confident in voting Hophtrig and thinking that Codine must be the second bad one after Hoppy. So Otto's vote is cast.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig and The Graffin, Ekaterina Eliabulon are not a team. Hophtrig and Codine are not a team. Hophtrig is good. I wouldn't necessarily assume that Otto and the Graffin are a team either, but if Hophtrig was willing to nominate on Ios' suggestion, Hophtrig is ready to back that up with a vote, as you may have noticed.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by no prophet:
The reasoning that would vote Otto off may seem logical except for one nasty little fact of his innocence. Otto did not vote for the innocent Choey....
Is that a fact? Because this here says that:
quote:
Originally spoken by Otto:
Okay says Otto, I am good with Choey too. "The FBC and me", says Otto, "we can't actually know, but if Choey is innocent, Otto will cry, because Wang Ho told me so."
I read that as an attempt to vote for Choey. So did Ios, for that matter:
quote:
Originally spoken by Ios:
I don't know if Otto is allowed to change his vote.
And our fearless leader, Dafyd, must have thought the same:
quote:
Originally spoken by Dafyd:
Votes once cast cannot be changed.
Four votes for Choey. One for Codine.
So yes, you did originally vote for someone else. But you tried to change your vote when you saw there was a bandwagon forming, and to me that amounts to the same thing.
So get off your high horse about not voting for Cho Bacca. Because you're starting to make me angry.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally spoken by Otto:
Then if Otto is innocent, you would consider Eliabulon to also be innocent?
No.
quote:
Originally spoken by Otto:
Which means to Otto that the guilty must be drawn from the group: Hophtrig, Codine and Ios. Otto believes Ios is innocent, which means that the guilty two are Hophtig and Codine. Otto has consulted with the FBC on this, and the FBC prompts him to say: "Hophtrig is the one to vote off this round, and Codine the next, because Otto and Ios are the innocents, and mark my word carefully, because Otto is innocent."
I don't think I follow. If you're innocent (which I'm seriously, seriously doubting at the moment), then I still am suspicious of the Grafinn. My two choices if you were somehow innocent would be Eliabulon and Hophtrig.
quote:
Originally spoken by Otto:
The reasoning that would vote Otto off may seem logical except for one nasty little fact of his innocence. Otto did not vote for the innocent Choey....
Addressed this already. See above. Read, mark, learn, and inwardly digest.
quote:
Originally spoken by Otto:
But seeing as this reasoning comes from the suspected guilty Codine, Otto considers that Codine is spreading FUD and trying to deflect from Codine's guilt. Which makes Otto more confident in voting Hophtrig and thinking that Codine must be the second bad one after Hoppy. So Otto's vote is cast.
I do not understand this line of thinking at all.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig agrees that everyone voted for Choey. Everyone voted for Choey, only one of the votes was invalid as Otto cast his vote for Choey having already voted. No-one's hands are clean after that vote. Hophtrig's especially, Hophtrig was silly enough to take a look in one of the bags Choey left behind, now Hophtrig's hands look like the side of the bus.
Anyone want a Hophtrig hug?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I have no idea what to think about who might be Possessed. I'm inclined to purely follow the numbers: if we choose at random among the four suspects this turn and next, and carry out a lynching each time, we have a 5/6 chance of getting at least one Possessed. Getting one Possessed in this turn or next is all we need to ultimately win, given best play by the doctor.
Someone please check my 5/6 calculation.
John and Zapaterietxe, if we three agree to vote for someone already voted for then we can guarantee a lynching. I think that's what we need, and then another lynching next turn, and hope that the 5/6 probability comes through for us.
It's no use getting annoyed at the situation; the Mafia nearly always win and it is really quite fortunate that we Innocents have gotten to this point with this much of a numerical advantage.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
A big Hophtrig hug for poor, confused Ios.
Hophtrig thinks, if the Graffin, Ekaterina Eliabulon is one of the naughty, then having Eliabulon remain simply adds to the confusion of the good. Otto and Hophtrig, as Codine said, are not so analytical as Eliabulon. However this comes in Hophtrig's mind to the opposite of Codine's conclusion, if we suspect the Graffin, then quieting the Graffin's confusing voice is a wise thing. Otto and Hophtrig we can ignore. Codine is less vociferous also.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I hope you washed your hands before this hug, Hophtrig.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
They're clean now, Ios. Here, look at Hophtrig's hands, they're clean now.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
Just over twelve hours to go until voting closes. We have two votes in, one for Hophtrig and one for the Grafinn. Four votes needed to evict.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
John and Zapaterietxe, if we three agree to vote for someone already voted for then we can guarantee a lynching. I think that's what we need, and then another lynching next turn, and hope that the 5/6 probability comes through for us.
That's mainly why I haven't voted yet. I wanted to see what you two are going to do. I don't want to consign you to a vote you don't really want to take just so we can lynch someone.
I'm planning to vote for the Grafinn unless you or Zapa changes my mind.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Are we sure this isn't a case of a Possessed Hophtrig yet again finding a Being to look more Naughty than Hophtrig?
Mostly though, I don't particularly have any preference right now. I'm completely lost in complexity. Throw the dice and see what turns up.
Eliabulon, I hope you can show up and defend yourself. You're running out of time.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Are we sure this isn't a case of a Possessed Hophtrig yet again finding a Being to look more Naughty than Hophtrig?
No, we're not sure.
I could waffle between the three for days more. I can find reasons within myself to vote for any of them. The reason I picked Eliabulon is that I think if she's guilty, she's the most dangerous, and if she's innocent, she's not going to be as much help as she was previously (because we're running out of suspects). I can make the same argument for Hophtrig, though. If he's guilty then he's managing to divert our attention away from him and that's bad, but if he's innocent we don't have a lot of other options and Hoppy isn't as deeply analytical as you or Zapa.
So that's why I've waited; I was hoping Zapaterietxe could shine a bit of light on his line of thinking. I find it extremely odd that he's been silent this long.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Time grows short and a decision needs to be made.
I suspect the Grafinn.
I suspect Hophtrig.
I suspect Otto.
I could easily vote for any of them. Since we're getting down to the wire, I've got to make a decision and hope for the best. I've seen no defense from the Grafinn (due to RealLyfe, I believe). I don't quite know why, but I choose to allow her space to defend herself. There is always tomorrow.
Otto ticked me off just a bit, but I don't feel like voting for him today. There are no votes thus far, and I believe it would split us too far to do any good. There is always tomorrow.
Hophtrig has a lot going for him, and a lot going against him. He's the fuzziest fuzzy bunny I've seen in a long time. If he's innocent we're going to feel like we've drowned a kitten. If he's guilty we're probably going to be surprised, even though some of us have been suspecting it for a while. But I think that, by the power of elimination, he's our candidate.
I vote for Hophtrig.
There now. There's still room to lynch the Grafinn if you want; it will take Ios, Zapa, and Codine voting for her. So you vote the way you feel you can and we'll hope for the best!
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
John, Hophtrig has two words of warning, meow glug.
Ios, Zapaterietxe, Codine, do you really want The Graffin to have the opportunity to twist you 'round Eliabulon's little finger? Think carefully.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Alban:
John, Hophtrig has two words of warning, meow glug.
Your Jedi mind tricks do not worka on me!
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
So that's why I've waited; I was hoping Zapaterietxe could shine a bit of light on his line of thinking. I find it extremely odd that he's been silent this long.
So do I. When your past strategies don't work, you try a new one—and if you're beyond suspicion, you can even get away with trying silence, just to see what happens if you don't influence the proceedings.
So here's what I have to think: I don't think Grafinnchasing is necessarily a productive strategy, even now. If she's guilty, she's playing a really devious game, and we won't find her until the end. It's situations like these that make me wish we still had our detectives with us—if we could clear one person, just one, we could solve all sorts of messes right now.
Why would the Possessed keep her alive if she was innocent? Easy; if you've nominated both their members, it's helpful to have somebody else to point to, somebody who always looks perennially suspicious. If you need a hand-wave or distraction, someone to take away one or two crucial votes, it just might work.
Of course, the arguments for them wanting to keep her alive if she was Possessed seem a bit more obvious, but…
For whatever reason, she's not ringing my alarm bells. What does this mean? Who knows.
However, listening to everything from today, both Otto and Hophtrig are, and it's hard to decide between the two. Hophtrig seems to be making the Fluffybunny defense try to stick, at least once he made an effort to speak my language; however, Otto is doing about the same, and engaging in Grafinnblamery. Oh, and there's that little matter of Ja'ayem protecting either him or Choey, and we've found out it wasn't Choey. Maybe an emphasis on the Fluffybunny defense is the (re)adjustment they decided to stick with after interrogation and pointing out flaws got Reppik debussed—bunny with an axe obviously wasn't going to work for them—so they resort to emotional manipulation and heartstring tugging.
Okay, I think they're both probably guilty, but, since I have to pick one, I'll go with the one that looks worse: Otto
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Hophtrig
Dimthing to Codine and Eliabulon, come in Codine and Eliabulon. Lucky you, both of you, you control the outcome of our vote.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Well, I can't vote for Otto because we don't have votes to convict him. I can't vote for Eliabulon because we don't have the votes to convict him either. So I will vote for Hophtrig!
[ 11. April 2014, 16:38: Message edited by: Gwai ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
...[A]nd if you're beyond suspicion, you can even get away with trying silence, just to see what happens if you don't influence the proceedings.
Why is it you always go silent when we start talking about the Grafinn? This happened on Day Three, too. Is it coincidence, or is there a reason?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
So far:
Otto: Hophtrig
Hophtrig: Eliabulon
John: Hophtrig
Zapaterietxe: Otto
Ios: Hophtrig
Codine: Hophtrig
Still to vote: Eliabulon
At least now we will have certainty about one more Being on this bus. And actually two Beings (Hophtrig and Ja'ayem), because we will know if Ja'ayem was First Partridge or Second Partridge.
Hophtrig, one more hand of hearts with Otto and me? Or would you like your stack of waffles now? It has been an excellent bus ride with you. The HHH will feel awfully empty with just me and Otto.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
Hophtrig would love another hand of hearts with his good friends.
If Hophtrig does not make it:
- Ios - this structure with its somewhat domelike shape can be called Ios' igloo if Hophtrig is no longer with you. As keeper of the HideyHole/Igloo, it is your responsibility to see that all on board have a fun place to play, a quiet place to think but most of all, a place to just be friends.
- John - This is the button that Hophtrig and Lovely Lesley pressed that started a fire which threatened to kill us all. This button is the prize for the next person who nominates a naughty who is subsequently lynched. It will not be handed out today. I give to John the solemn task of awarding this to the nominator who next sees a naughty lynched.
- Otto and Squeezy - This screwdriver is very useful, Hophtrig has been using it to repurpose parts of this bus for the entertainment of the friends. All going well, a second prize will be needed, use this screwdriver to make a second naughtynominator prize. If Hophtrig leaves, there's still some bits of bus to take apart, Otto and Squeezy could work together on this well. Might Hophtrig suggest you try the windows, if you pop the rubber gaskets and remove the anchor screws in the four corners, they will come out, etched glass always looks nice as an award.
- Zapaterietxe - If Hophtrig is going, Hophtrig will hand you the remote control to the bionic kangaroo which Hophtrig built. With this, comes the position of memorykeeper. You, Zapaterietxe, will be responsible for keeping alive the memory of the fallen. Reppik Tew and Ja'ayem, who were taken over by the naughtiness that crept aboard. The memory of Crimson and Lucy, whose cleverness saw them brutally murdered. Of Joostein, who was overtaken by Eblootia day, and in his madness, left. Of Daisy, stolen from us when we barely knew our friend. Of lovely Lesley's heroic sacrifice. And if he is gone, of Hophtrig. Yours is the responsibility for keeping these memories.
- Codine - If Hophtrig is leaving, Hophtrig will hand you this special intergalactic dictionary, Hophtrig carries this everywhere. Codine will notice that every slightly naughty word has been blacked out. Codine's are to be the words of love, encouragement and friendship. Hophtrig gives you a reminder that all aboard this bus are your friends, though the naughtiness has overtaken two of them. Amongst the accusations that will fly, Hophtrig asks you to be a voice of love.
- The Graffin, Ekaterina Eliabulon - Ekaterina will be the designated demonstrative. Hophtrig gives you, Eliabulon this hug, pass it on to all who might need one. If Hophtrig goes, there will be a few needed tonight, indeed, and The Graffin will be here to provide.
But now the cards are waiting. Deal on, Ios.
[ 11. April 2014, 19:07: Message edited by: Alban ]
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
With four votes Hophtrig has been evicted. He was innocent.
The lights go out. Night actions please. Have a nice day.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Zapaterietxe, where's that mustard pot? Otto, do you see it anywhere here in the HHH (it would be too sad to call it the II and forget Hophtrig who was always a good friend even when Ios stabbed him in the back with a nomination)? It's time for me to eat my psychic hat.
On the other hand, I have a suspicion of where to find some partridge eggs. And they're not in the place with the big neon sign that says "Don't look here! /s/ Ja'ayem S.P." And now we know what S.P. stands for, despite Eliabulon's strange and unaccountably naive reaction to Ios' parable of Second Partridge.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Twenty-seven pages of posts on the wall;
Twenty-seven pages of posts.
If one of those posts should happen to be read,
One thousand three hundred forty-nine posts left to re-read.
I'm going hunting. I've repurposed my back-stabbing dagger. It has a new inscription: "In memory of Joostein."
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
This is supremely irritating.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Unless you're a bad one Ios, Otto says it is Grafinn and Codine. Oh my! How did it get this far. But that's who it has to be!
Hophtrig, thanks for the screwdriver. On Planet 11 it is a drink with fruit juice and intoxicating fluid. Odd that it is a tool for you. Otto is crying magenta tears and remembering our nice times together. He also thinks the bus is doomed because everyone is voting for the wrong people and killing off the Good Ones. The clues are so difficult to read. Otto says that if they kill him next, he thinks the game is probably lost for the Innocents. Otto raises his glass to Hoppy. See you on the other side my friend.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
I want to lynch Eliabulon next. Pretty please with sugar on top! Ve vould feel foolish of ve didn't.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Ios, I fear we must also consider Zapaterietxe. I find it supremely odd that he steadfastly refuses to consider Eliabulon. I also find it odd that he disappears whenever she is a suspect. It pains me, because I have seen far more evidence for innocence than guilt. Maybe I'll be satisfied with his answer and we won't have to go there. I shudder at the thought.
My three (in order) are Eliabulon, Codine, and Zapaterietxe.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
On the other hand, I have a suspicion of where to find some partridge eggs. And they're not in the place with the big neon sign that says "Don't look here! /s/ Ja'ayem S.P." And now we know what S.P. stands for, despite Eliabulon's strange and unaccountably naive reaction to Ios' parable of Second Partridge.
I hate to be obtuse, but can you post a link? I don't think I see what you're talking about.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
This margin is too small to hold the proo--
(Scuffling as Ios suppresses fictitious A., who is channeling Fermat.)
Ios here, ignore that fictitious friend behind the screen. What I meant to say is, I'm posting through my phone which makes it difficult to find things, but after this glorified game of rounders that A. is pretending to have dragged me to, I can fire up my computer and hunt for Ios' Touching Parable Of The Two Partridges.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
John The Less, if there is an undeclared Innocent Unreadable who has been letting Zapaterietxe pose as Innocent By Role Claim all this time, I am going to track that Being down and wrestle it out the airlock myself.
Which is to say, this game has been crazy, but an undeclared Innocent Unreadable after so many turns is just beyond the pale ridiculous. Having said that, who knows, I may need another hat and more mustard. But I think we have much more likely places to hunt for the next several turns. (Eliabulon, Codine, and Otto, I'm looking at you.)
[ 12. April 2014, 01:36: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
Ios, I fear we must also consider Zapaterietxe. I find it supremely odd that he steadfastly refuses to consider Eliabulon. I also find it odd that he disappears whenever she is a suspect. It pains me, because I have seen far more evidence for innocence than guilt. Maybe I'll be satisfied with his answer and we won't have to go there. I shudder at the thought.
My three (in order) are Eliabulon, Codine, and Zapaterietxe.
Oh FFS. Seriously? SERIOUSLY? We have EVIDENCE against Otto, and you're going off on a Grafinnchase—and trying to lump me in as well?
Okay, look. Look. Read the old transcripts. Read the confessions of the Guardians. You know the oldest nogoodnick tactic in the book? Blame the Eliabuli. You know where everything always goes wrong? Everyone thinks he/she is guilty, turns out he/she isn't, it goes downhill from there. And I, for one, am a Bit. Tired. Of it.
So, if we can cook up some actual evidence against her, rather than vague suspicions and "but she has to be guilty, doesn't she?" I'll take it. I'm just not seeing any. I am, however, seeing evidence against Otto. We have to explain Ja'ayem's sacrifice somehow, do we not? What explanation makes sense, now that Hophtrig's been unfortunately debussed? One of Otto or Hophtrig is Possessed. Hophtrig wasn't. Therefore, our possibilities are kinda slim, now aren't they?
And yes, I go quiet. Accuse me of yammering and bullying enough, and, if it doesn't work, I change tactics. Let you all figure things out without me mucking up the works and leading us in odd directions based on what I see. Thought I'd take some time to think, to listen, and to reflect. Call it suspicious if you like, but let's face it, me banging on only got us so far. So I try silence, and we get just as far.
Okay, let's review: guilty beings come out of a pool of Otto, Codine, and Eliabulon. Two days ago, the pool also included Choey and Hophtrig, but we've managed to narrow things down since then. Only today, ever since the Joostein Incident, has the Grafinn been under suspicion. So we have Otto and Codine—a pool of two, with two Possessed at large. It fits, maybe a bit too well.
And yes, I know I've been keeping everybody from wild goose chasing Eliabulon. Which might be more accurate than saying that I've been defending her—after all, that hat was condensed into existence for a reason. Ditto the mustard pot, which seems to have gone empty in our late festivities.
Another mustard pot, this one with a wider, flatter lid (all the better for making speeches from) appears.
Spiked with errefaumin and ozpina this time around—"the radish of pain" might be the best translation of that first one; maybe something to keep us awake and clear our thoughts for the night ahead.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Zapaterietxe:
We have to explain Ja'ayem's sacrifice somehow, do we not? What explanation makes sense, now that Hophtrig's been unfortunately debussed? One of Otto or Hophtrig is Possessed. Hophtrig wasn't. Therefore, our possibilities are kinda slim, now aren't they?
Zapaterietxe, why does one of Hophtrig or Otto have to be Possessed?
I think Ja'ayem's sacrifice was a double bluff. Ja'ayem made it to appear as if he was trying to shield at least one of either Choey or Hophtrig. We took the bait and have spent two turns lynching Innocent Choey and Innocent Hophtrig. I think that was Ja'ayem's intent, and his sacrifice was meant to shield the two Possessed who are to be found among Eliabulon, Codine, and Otto.
What I am not sure of is whether Ja'ayem had started this bluff as early as the Day Two Reppik Tew vote. There, Ja'ayem voted early against Otto. Does that mean Otto is probably Innocent, and Ja'ayem was naturally not voting against Possessed Reppik Tew, but also working to avoid the potentially guilty appearance of starting a bandwagon against Hophtrig, who Ja'ayem knew could eventually be found to be Innocent? Or does it mean Otto is Possessed, and Ja'ayem was taking a risk of Otto being lynched, but at the same time giving Otto a good cover of "how could Otto be Possessed; Ja'ayem voted against him?" I don't know.
I think it would do us Innocents good to take a deep breath and let go of preconceptions and think things through again in light of what we now know. It won't do any good to cast blame at other Innocents for lynching Innocents; that's part and parcel of the trials that Innocents have to go through on the way to narrowing things down in finding the Mafia.
I'm going to go find the Second Partridge references for John The Less, and then I'm going to finish rereading the archives Yet Again, this time paying attention to our three unknowns Eliabulon, Codine, Otto, and known Naughties Ja'ayem and Reppik Tew, and taking account of the fact that everyone else is known to be Innocent. Then I'll be back with some questions.
Even before I reread the archives, here is a question that puzzles me. Apparently I look Innocent. Why do I look so palpably Innocent, but the lone Innocent among Eliabulon, Codine and Otto does not look equally obviously Innocent, and neither did Choey or Hophtrig?
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
[better late than never]
Hophtrig is sorry to say goodbye to Hophtrig's friends. Hophtrig loves Hophtrig's friends.
Hophtrig pulled a small oblong device from a hidden crevice on his body. Hophtrig squeezed it. A large ball of light appeared where Hophtrig had been. The light grew smaller and smaller and brighter and brighter until it was an intense, almost blinding pinpoint, which seemed to hover there for a moment, until it finally vanished.
Across the universe, on a small planet in the region of Tau Ceti, a siren sounded. A terrifying creature wearing a white lab coat rose from his position before a monitor and went to a nearby refrigerator. The creature opened the refrigerator and extracted a box, which he put into a chamber next to the refrigerator. The labcoated creature pressed some buttons on the casing of the chamber, each of which bleeped satisfyingly when pressed. A light came on inside the chamber, not quite as intense as the one which had blazed upon Hophtrig's departure far away and the box became visible, through the transparent window in the chamber's door, rotating slowly. As the box turned, the labcoated creature crossed the room and pulled out a cocktail shaker. He took the lid off and added a pinch of powder from a flask labelled “Carbon”
“Why do they always hurt Hophtrig?” Labcoat said to himself, as he replaced the lid and moved the shaker rhythmically up and down, “Hophtrig was made to be loved”
Across the room, the chamber in which he had placed the box bleeped at him. Labcoat put down the shaker, wandered over to the chamber, opened the door, removed the box from within and opened the lid. Out of the box climbed Hophtrig.
“Are you ready, number seventy two thousand, eight hundred and sixty four?” intoned Labcoat.
“Oh boy yes, Hophtrig's ready for fun!” came the reply, in Hophtrig's familiar, high pitched tones.
“Excellent.” said Labcoat. Leaving the newly defrosted Hophtrig to its own devices for the time being, Labcoat crossed the room again and opened the cocktail shaker. He poured the contents into a shallow dish and put this dish into an incubator. Almost immediately, the dish began to grow fur the same colour as Hophtrig's.
“Come now Hophtrig, your public awaits” Labcoat said, taking the new Hophtrig by the hand.
“Yay! So many new friends to meet! Whoever you are, wherever you go, Hophtrig is your friend”
As Hophtrig spoke, the pair had come to a door. Labcoat opened this and they walked out.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Somewhere, far away on the planet Smartthing, a bus door opens. Doublejumphugs are had by all the Assembled Touring Beings when they meet their new tour companions. And Hophtrig never gets locked accidentally-on-purpose in the HHHH (Hophtrig Hophtrig Hidey Hole), because whichever Hophtrig gets locked inside, there is always the other Hophtrig outside to let Hophtrig out.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Here is a handy primer of Second Partridge references. If you put the page in printer-friendly view and search for Second Partridge, you will find a few more references.
Ios tells The Parable Of The First, Deceptive, Partridge And The Second, Doubly Deceptive, Partridge:
quote:
Originally posted by Ios:
Partridge pretends to have a broken wing. Limps along, leading fox away from nest.
Second partridge, second fox. Second Partridge pretends to have broken wing. Limps away. Second Fox has become wise to Partridge ways, and instead of following partridge looks in spot that partridge seems to be trying to decoy fox from. Discovers that Second Partridge has double bluffed Second Fox, and left a nuclear bomb in nest. Eggs are elsewhere.
Which Partridge is Ja'ayem?
In the post following the post linked above, Ios explains to the inner circle of disciples what the Parable means.
Eliabulon dismisses the Second Partridge possibility:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliabulon:
Choey und Hophtrig appear to be ze vuns Ja'ayem tried to shield. Ios speculates zat Ja'ayem's whole plan vas to be caught. I dount zis. Firstly, it is at odds vith his own assessment of ze value of ze sympathiser, und second, at zis stage ze Possessed can afford losses even less zan ve can. So I think zat at ze start, Ja'ayem vas trying to live. Ven zat seemed hopeless, I am sure he vould zen have sought to mislead, but I do not think zat vas all his plan. Zerefore I think ze ease vith vich he could have made ze contest between himself und Choey, und ze fact zat he did not, are clues. Better zan anything else I see.
Several Fake Life days later (you could look up the Dimthing timeline if you wish) Eliabulon changes his tune. Ios is more tart than usual in noticing this:
quote:
Originally posted by Ios:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliabulon:
It means zat either Ja'ayem fooled me into thinking zat he vas trying to shield her und Hophtrig,
Gosh, imagine that as a possibility. I seem to remember someone suggesting that Ja'ayem might be Second Partridge, and pretty much getting blown off or ignored by the vote influencers.
Read the whole of Eliabulon's post that immediately precedes the Ios post linked to here, to get the whole of what Eliabulon was saying.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I'm trying to decide:
Is Eliabulon Innocent, and is just really that non-devious as to not have suspected that perhaps Ja'ayem was Second Partridge?
Or is Eliabulon Possessed, and was trying to turn everybody's attention away from Ios' Second Partridge theory, which as it turns out IS CORRECT?
If the former, no wonder Eliabulon thinks Guilty members of Clan A. Road are devious and subtly manipulate conversations. Honestly, it would be like taking candy from a baby.
Zapaterietxe, you're the self-proclaimed Clan Eliab expert here. Is Clan Eliab generally that naive?
I can think of another possible explanation for an Innocent and even Non-Naive Eliabulon falling into Ja'ayem's trap... but I'll let Eliabulon speak for herself.
Eliabulon, what do you have to say?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
John The Less, I think you have to go on the presumption that Zapaterietxe's role claim as Innocent Unreadable is correct because it has not been challenged, and there's been ample time to challenge it. So when he says things that appear strange to you, instead of jumping to "Must consider Z as Possessed", instead consider things like "Z is Innocent, and yet he speaks this way. I wonder why. Does he have some other plan in mind that I haven't thought of? Does he think differently than me? Does he have different things he's convinced of, that are driving him in different directions than I'm going?" And so on. Eliabulon, Codine, and Otto can have the hermeneutic of suspicion, but Zapaterietxe and you, John, get the hermeneutic of trust. (And for whatever reason, I have been graced with the hermeneutic of trust too. This is good, because it gives us all fewer suspects to work with.) Within the hermeneutic of trust there may be disagreement perhaps, but disagreement within a framework of trust.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Zapaterietxe:
Hophtrig seems to be making the Fluffybunny defense try to stick, at least once he made an effort to speak my language; however, Otto is doing about the same, and engaging in Grafinnblamery. Oh, and there's that little matter of Ja'ayem protecting either him or Choey, and we've found out it wasn't Choey.
Wait a second. By "him or Choey", do you mean "Otto or Choey"? Where do you get that from?
If you're still trailing deliberate mistakes to see who will pick you up on them, I wish you'd stop. It's exhausting to keep reading them and going WTF. And I can't particularly ignore them and wait to see if any other Beings will pick up on them (and thus in your view demonstrate their Innocence), because I don't know if they're deliberate inaccuracies meant to find Innocents to correct them, or if they're truly a different possibility that you've seen that I haven't. Plus, in case you missed it the first time I said it, I think your criterion for detecting Innocence does not take into account the level of effort and deviousness some Beings on board bus might expend.
[ 12. April 2014, 11:13: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Whatever, Zapaterietxe. You go ahead and think what you want to think.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
No, dang it, I'm not going to roll over and play dead on this one.
Zapaterietxe, you are wrong about the Grafinn. Wronger than a wrong thing that is wrong on the wrong day of the wrong week.
You have steadfastly refused to question her this whole time -- in the face of Joostein's attack, in the face of today's speculation (and, if I may be so bold, near eviction; had I pushed it harder she might have been the one making a grand exit), in the face of Ios' evidence, my evidence, Joostein's evidence, and everyone's general sense of "WTF?".
I am struggling to give you the benefit of the doubt. Maybe you see something I don't -- not a difficult proposition, I admit -- and perhaps I just need to shut up. This time, however, I cannot.
Grr. I'm too worked up. Wait a moment.
John turned to his bag, pulled out a small, clear, glass bottle which contained a black, bubbly liquid. He popped the cap off and a satisfying hiss escaped; the tan foam that suddenly topped the liquid showed it was carbonated. He turned it up, drinking it all in one long pull. Otto noticed the bottle was stamped "Dr. Pepper" in white ink, and wondered aloud if it was the thing that had helped John become a doctor in the first place. It was not, but the humor wasn't lost on John. Finishing the liquid, John brought the bottle down to the counter with a clatter, while his deep voice gave an "Aaaagh!" of satisfaction and frustration, all mixed into one. A hiccup, and then John was back to normal.
Otto very well may be the other possessed. I was mistaken (and slightly buzzed) when I put Codine down. He's still a suspect, but you are correct that Otto is more suspicious than he. Otto was implicated by Reppik, and it hasn't looked good since.
Zapaterietxe, I have tried to follow the evidence wherever it may lead, no matter how frustrating it may be to you or anyone else. I will grant that I'm not as all powerful in the logic department as you are, so I've likely missed something. Fine, whatever.
Yet over and over again I keep coming back to this fact: The Grafinn, if innocent, is very sloppy and inconsistent. If guilty, however, it makes sense.
Lumping you in there was a bit of a ploy, I admit. I am curious about those two questions I raised, and you gave the response I was hoping for, although it was packaged in a way I wasn't expecting. It's my mistake, really; I should have handled it differently. I am sorry.
Otto and Eliabulon are the two remaining Possessed. I am certain of this. I will allow a small possibility of Codine being the second instead of one of them, but I think the chances are almost nil. Lynch whomever you want first; perhaps in the lynching of one you will get more evidence for the lynching of the other.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ios:
quote:
Originally posted by Zapaterietxe:
Hophtrig seems to be making the Fluffybunny defense try to stick, at least once he made an effort to speak my language; however, Otto is doing about the same, and engaging in Grafinnblamery. Oh, and there's that little matter of Ja'ayem protecting either him or Choey, and we've found out it wasn't Choey.
Wait a second. By "him or Choey", do you mean "Otto or Choey"? Where do you get that from?
If you're still trailing deliberate mistakes to see who will pick you up on them, I wish you'd stop.
I wish I'd stop making non-deliberate ones. There comes a point where your categories start sliding together—especially the "guilty parties" one. Okay, went back and looked—I thought Otto had been nominated on Day 4, when it was Hophtrig instead. So much for me, I guess.
Honestly, I've been doubting pretty much everything ever since the Joostein incident, even though I know that's no way to proceed. Asking "but what if I'm wrong about the thing the evidence so clearly seems to suggest?" isn't going to get us anywhere, I know, but I've been doing it quite a bit, and now that you all see guilt so clearly where I don't, I'm doing it yet again. What don't I see?
Here's what I do see: Joostein wanted Eliabulon debussed almost from the very moment we departed. Maybe even sooner. Evidence be damned, "the Grafinn is guilty" was an assumption that everything else had to fit. I came from the opposite perspective; reading over the transcripts gave me the impression that, unless something Weird or unexplainable happens, the Grafinn is probably innocent. Do people in power with the ability to exercise it usually play by the rules? No. They play with the rules! A Pavian noble is no exception to this metarule, especially one who has just come into it. So, on the first night, I looked for the one clue that would, it seemed to me, tip us off to her being in a position to exercise power: anything other than a straight-up death in the night.
You've read the Annals of the Eliabuloi. Any chance to play with the supposed rules and categorical dictates of the Absolute, like bogus kidnappings, falsely foiled assassination attempts, coming back from the grave to play another role, self-protection when not explicitly allowed, etc., is taken. Any space not forbidden by the rules is to be occupied. With her and her ilk, it's not "if it doesn't say you can't, you can," it's "if it doesn't say you can't, you should."
Had I seen even the slightest sign of that sort of tomfoolery in the morning of day two, I would have beaten Joostein to accusing her. Would have built a case linking her and Reppik, and, given my thoughts at the time, Lesley as well. It may be that two foiled assassination attempts in a row is something she's falsified—maybe she wants to prolong this trip, maybe she'd enjoy watching us kill each other, without her ever having to dirty her pristine, noble hands—and, to be honest, it's something I could see her enjoying doing in retrospect. Defeating your enemies is all fine and good, but why not do it in style? If there's anyone who would do that, it'd be her.
It just seems…well, a bit too risky, even for her. One missed assassination attempt wouldn't change the number of mistakes we can (safely?) make; two missed ones would. If she was going to deliberately not make an assassination attempt, I believe she'd save it for a time and a place where she could use it to make herself look less guilty, and then point to it as evidence of her innocence.
Any number of strange things have happened on this trip, but I can't seem to find a way to pin any of them on her. Maybe someone else can see something I don't, however.
Which is not, mind you, to say that she's innocent—like I said, I'm doubting myself at every turn now, and I really wish I wasn't. It's just to say that I don't see it. Maybe it's just because she works and thinks like I do, seeing rules and patterns of speech and action, trying to find inconsistencies brought out by nonconformity to these rules. Maybe it's just that I'm tired of seeing the odd and, to some, tiresome strategist who nevertheless may have a point somewhere thrown out simply because they seem odd. Maybe it's just because what I'm looking for as a criterion of guilt is different than what everyone else is looking for, something that I'd recognize as indicative not just of guilt, but of a guilt that was uniquely hers.
Hm. This makes me think about something else. I've made my share of mistakes and miscues, as has John. Yet it's pretty safely assumed that the two of us are innocent, and, I think, for good reason. So simply making mistakes and errors isn't enough to debus somebody. Yet what Reppik did wasn't a mere mistake—it was an unforced tactical error, something so obvious that I could catch it. There was something different about it, something that enough of us saw that he was debussed. What I've been looking for to determine whether or not Grafinn Eliabulon is guilty or innocent is different than simple mistakes, but also different than what others have been looking for—it's something unique to her, something that would give her away. Now, maybe she knows I'm looking for this, and has been playing it straight, hiding her hand. However, I'd think knowing that at least one of us is coalescing disembodied eyes every chance they get just for the sake of rolling them each time she gets mentioned might draw her out a bit, make her act more boldly. There's a built-in dupe who's only half-watching, no?
So here's the question(s): what are the sorts of things that would give away the Possessed, given that voting patterns are pretty well out (everyone who didn't vote for Reppik is now gone), and simply making mistakes might not be of much use either? I know what I'm looking for in the Grafinn, but from others? An uptick in talking after being suspected? Obsequiousness and bending to the will of whoever seems to be speaking the loudest at the given moment? Just happening to be a little too inconspicuous—not sticking their neck out, not hiding too much, just kind of Being There?
I'm running out of strategies and ideas. A bit of confidence or certainty would be nice…one note from a well-placed detective would allow us to deduce so much right now, and yet...
[ 13. April 2014, 05:42: Message edited by: Ariston ]
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
Hm. More looking over our first day or two. Our game of suspecting three—Codine, Otto, and Ios are the only ones left who didn't play; I nominated three innocents (of whom one I chased, one I let go early, and one I never voted for); Eliabulon one known innocent, one accepted innocent, and an unknown; John a known innocent and two unknowns. It's also interesting that, among those left alive, Joostein was the most popular choice the first day—everyone who has died so far voted not to lynch anyone, assuming they voted that day. I voted for Reppik (yay me!), Ios, Otto, and Eliabulon for Joostein, and John and Codine voted for TESS. Assuming there's no Grafinnjiggerypokery, I'm guessing the Possessed have tried to make at least one hit on John, which, if it hadn't been foiled, would have eliminated one more "no lynching" voter.
Suddenly, I'm wondering if those first day's votes aren't becoming the most useful after all.
If we eliminate John, as the Possessed probably intended to, then Codine becomes the only one of us left who voted for the usual, inconspicuous, majority "no lynching" position. As we've seen from the votes against Reppik, Joostein, and Ja'ayem, the Possessed clearly aren't always splitting their votes. In the vote against Choey, there were only two votes that went against Codine—one from Choey, and one from Otto, who tried to change his vote to Choey after he had cast it. If he had been allowed by the Unconditioned to change it, those of us left alive would have all voted for Choey, including the Possessed. Today, everyone voted for Hophtrig who voted except for me and Hophtrig; the Grafinn didn't vote, and I voted for Otto. So everyone who was guilty who voted (assuming, of course, that I'm not guilty) also voted en bloc.
Looking this over, I think Otto's attempt to change his vote may be significant; I think it's a good thing the mustard pot has been refilled, as our most likely voting bloc based on the first day includes Ios, Eliabulon, and Otto (and those late, but perhaps not too late, votes for Reppik aren't looking too hot); and that every assumption that the Possessed are going to hide by vote splitting rather than hiding in a bloc of votes should be discarded.
I'll need to update my own personal records based on Ios' summaries—I've been remiss in tracking things these last couple days—but there might be something to be seen in who voted when, and if it's consistent with everything else we know about them. Does someone normally quick to lynch slow down when a guiltything is nominated? Who nominated whom, at what time, and are there any cases where someone nominated one being, but voted for another without a justification?
There may be a pattern emerging here. Right now, I think it's leading toward Otto, but beyond that, I'm not entirely sure.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
So, out of our three suspects, here is the place, according to my records (checked against the Log of Ios, but caveats apply, trust Z at your own risk, etc.), each of them voted each day, with votes for guilty beings marked:
Codine: (11), 14**, 6, 3*, 7, 6
Grafinn Eliabulon: 7, 11**, 1, 9*, 8, 7
Otto: 5, 9**, 8, 8*, (1), 1
Number of beings voting each day: 15, 14, 11, 9, 8, 7
It should be noted that Ja'ayem (marked with one star) had not yet confessed to being the Cultist when Codine had voted, but that GEE and Otto voted after his confession. Votes that did not go with the general pattern, including Otto's vote for Codine that he attempted to change to Choey on day 5, are marked in parentheses.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
One More Thing from the Sleepless Voice in the Dark:
John asked why I disappear whenever the Grafinn is suspected. I wonder if it's not more accurate to ask why the Grafinn comes under suspicion whenever I go quiet.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
John asked why I disappear whenever the Grafinn is suspected. I wonder if it's not more accurate to ask why the Grafinn comes under suspicion whenever I go quiet.
A fair question, for which I have no good answer.
What I take from your response is that you are fairly sure of Otto's guilt (as sure as anyone can be), and are more suspicious of Codine than Eliabulon. Is that right?
Assuming it is: I think lynching Otto next is the best course of action. His defense will likely give us some clues for the next one.
[ 13. April 2014, 11:19: Message edited by: Barefoot Friar ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I think, barring any more miraculous Saves In The Night (a.k.a. foiling of Possessed Murderous Nocturnal Wanderings), we have to lynch a Possessed Being today. Otherwise tomorrow (Dimthing time), there will be two Possessed and one Innocent remaining, and the Possessed will win the vote to lynch the Innocent.
Please check my calculation on this; I'm still none too sure of my ability with numbers on this bus tour. (This number confusion is Yet Another Bizarre Thing for me.)
In other news, fictitious friend A. proposes that she isn't fictitious after all, since the things happening to her all fall under the category You Could Not Make This Up. Latest entries: driving the wrong way down a divided highway on her way home from the airport (only briefly thank God, before realizing her mistake); unable to find the towels in the hotel bathroom where she's staying since clearly she was too tired to drive home from the airport given Event A above; almost drying herself with the bathmat instead of a towel after she finally found the towels with the help of a call to the front desk.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
What has happened to Eliabulon? Has she been consumed by a frenzy of writing life events for her fictional friend Eliab?
Now would be the time for our unknown Innocent to speak up.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I'm up to page 11 rereading. Honestly, I don't think there's going to be a telltale clue that I'm going to pick up.
Some random observations:
What stands out to me most in rereading is how often Beings are spectacularly wrong in their assertions about whom they confidently believe to be Naughty or Nice. Almost everyone exhibits this, and most especially the beings who talk the most (I include myself in this). I suppose that's because the more you talk, the more often you have chances to be wrong.
All three of Codine, Eliabulon and Otto by turns look equally innocent and equally guilty, to me.
Both of our remaining Possessed voted for Reppik.
Codine and Otto are the ones among our three remaining suspects who don't say much.
I wouldn't expect a guilty Eliabulon to act the same way as a previous guilty member of Clan Eliab.
Although the numbers give us a 2/3 chance of successfully choosing a Possessed Being today if we choose randomly, fatalistically I expect whoever we choose to turn out to be the wrong choice.
Back to my rereading.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
I think we are probably to the point now where there will be little else we can glean from the transcripts. I've read them over and over and now there's just nothing else there.
I've been suspicious of Otto from the first or second day, but it hasn't been enough to actually push for an eviction.
I nominated him today, but ended up pushing for Eliabulon and then voting for Hophtrig. Looking back on it, I should have pushed for Otto instead. But hindsight is 20/20.
I have considered Zapaterietxe's points, and I see where he's coming from on the Grafinn. I still don't think she is innocent, but I'm not as upset about it as I was earlier. I kind of rate the Grafinn and Codine about the same in general shadiness, and am hoping that we figure out which is which while lynching Otto.
We are down to crunch time. We must lynch a guilty one tomorrow.
For what it's worth, I feel that this bus tour will go down in the annals of the Ship of Fools as the craziest ever -- and that's saying something.
By the way, once this is all over I've got about five hundred questions.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Zapaterietxe, John The Less, no-one else seems to be around. Would you like to come sit in the front seat and watch the stars while we wait to find out what will happen tonight?
Fictitious A. would recommend watching the ocean, but here in the Dimthing desert any ocean would be definitely fictitious. Good thing we have this lovely ocean of stars instead.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Lynching Otto would be a very stupid idea. Then you would have lost another innocent. If we'd lynched him instead of Hophtrig, we'd be in the same state, except Hophtrig would be sending this message!
The FBC snuggles with Otto. The rest of the bus seems to not like him much. Even though he never ever did anything wrong. He can't see the stars. Doesn't feel at all fabulous. And the magenta tears stain.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Otto! You're here. I think there's some room left on this remarkably large front seat where you'll just fit to watch the stars with us. Here, let's shift around. Come sit between me and the window; Zapaterietxe and John The Less are seeming remarkably squirrelly tonight about you, but I don't mind. I think I have another turquoise handkerchief if you'd like it, don't worry about magenta tear stains.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
I wish they would murder one of their own...
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by John:
For what it's worth, I feel that this bus tour will go down in the annals of the Ship of Fools as the craziest ever -- and that's saying something.
By the way, once this is all over I've got about five hundred questions.
[OOC]As the person who controls what gets Limbo'd, trust me: this one's been epic enough for preservation—and as for your questions, I have about thirty more of my own to add.[/OOC, Zapa on]
Here's what I think, based on a bit more time of reflecting:
1. Otto looks the worst of all the beings on this bus. I know he keeps saying he's innocent, but there's a bit too much that doesn't add up; as I was looking through the transcripts of what he said earlier, I kept noticing little things, little inconsistencies and oddities, things that just didn't quite add up to anything more than "who, little old clueless me?" I'd beware of underestimating any being on this bus. While many of us think of the Grafinn as the most dangerous adversary we could have if she were guilty, I've often thought the plans of her ilk a bit transparent and unworkable without some cooperation that just isn't going to happen, but people still think of her as the Cleverest Being Anywhere. Others, like Joostein, got overlooked until they got their moments to shine; increasingly, I wonder what would have happened if Joostein hadn't suspected Eliabulon, hadn't drawn our attention, and was instead working with us right now. We might well be off this bus by now. So, to consider something: those of you who play Riel Lyfe with Otto, does he strike you as a clueless player of that game? I mean, I know it's kind of a dumb game, despite its popularity, so you have to wonder about the intelligence of any being who would play it, but still—I don't think it'd pay to underestimate him. If I'm here tomorrow, I know who I'd suspect.
2. Remember, anyone can say "I'm innocent." Anyone can play on heartstrings. Anyone can resort to emotional manipulation. It risks nothing. It's easy. It lets you be consistent rather than change your tune when called out. After all, how do you challenge "I'm innocent, please don't lynch me; you'll only hurt us if you do?" "No, you're guilty?" "No I'm not!" "Yes you are!" "You're evil!" "No, you are!" It's a strategy that admits no counterargument save farce.
3. Besides Otto, though, I'm torn between Codine and the Grafinn for the third; maybe somebody can see a pattern I can't. Codine, for whatever reason, I could see as operating as a "free agent," someone who would try to act on her own without explicitly coordinating actions with her cohort; in fact, I vaguely remember someone who reminds me of her once trying exactly that sort of strategy in a crime spree some time back. So, a safe strategy if you're not coordinating speech, but only votes, is to have one person be mostly quiet and a bit logical when attention turns to them, another to play the World's Smallest Violin when accused of being anything other than a teddy bear. There's a bit of a risk for Codine if any of her statements start sounding a bit Funny, but, if she stays quiet, there shouldn't be too much to cross-reference, even if we re-read everything every night. Otto and Eliabulon could also run a similar strategy, though I see the Grafinn being much more directive, playing a team strategy, exploiting rules subtly, and playing people like puppets to keep the heat off of him and his accomplices. For whatever reason, I think an uncoordinated and independent mob wouldn't appeal to her tactical nature; there would be strategies upon strategies, a chance to come up with something so truly bizarre and exploiting all the possibilities of communication and the Possessed's perfect knowledge.
As for other beings, well…John, I think, is pretty well considered clear at this point, and Ios has been doing enough to make sure buried clues come to light—or that, if one of us goes looking for one, we can find them—that we can consider her innocent. If the Possessed thrive on ignorance, then our resident librarian has been doing quite a good job to make sure that ignorance is our own personal faults.
So I think the Possessed can be found among these three: Otto, Codine, and Grafinn Eliabulon, with the most likely being Otto and one of the last two.
[Edit to fix punctuation, etc. Durn emdashes]
[ 14. April 2014, 07:34: Message edited by: Ariston ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
One hundred fifty minutes to go for us Innocents,
One hundred fifty to go.
If one of us Innocents should happen to die,
Three Innocents left on the bus.
One hundred forty-nine minutes to go for us Innocents,
One hundred forty-nine to go.
If one of us Innocents should happen to die,
Three Innocents left on the bus.
John and Zapa grab^H^H^H^Hrespectfully request the magenta-streaked turquoise handkerchief from Otto and try to gag Ios. Ios is having none of it though.
One hundred forty-eight minutes to go for us Innocents,
One hundred forty-eight to go.
If one of us Innocents should happen to die,
Three Innocents left on the bus.
John and Zapa tear the handkerchief in four parts and stuff the parts in their ears. It's going to be a long one hundred forty-eight^H^H^H^H^Hseven minutes.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
I wish they would murder one of their own...
Ios takes the handkerchief quarter out of John's right ear long enough to offer:
Not likely, but they could kill the Unknown Innocent. Please, please, please.
Then she carefully stuffs the quarter handkerchief back in place.
One hundred twenty-one minutes to go for us Innocents,
One hundred twenty-one to go.
If one of us Innocents should happen to die,
Three Innocents left on the bus.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ios pauses in her threnody for Hophtrig, who introduced this choral meme to the bus, long enough to muse:
It's too bad us Innocents didn't figure out a way to dissemble about who we were sure was Innocent, while still all knowing among us Innocents. That way the Possessed might not know who is the Unknown Innocent, and might kill the Unknown Innocent by accident, and then we'd be home free.
One hundred one minutes to go for us Innocents,
One hundred one minutes to go.
If one of us Innocents should happen to die,
Three Innocents left on the bus.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Fictitious friend A. decides that if she's going to stay up waiting for the Absolute to appear, she may as well go find the fictitious chewing gum that she thinks she left in her fictitious purse downstairs. Since A. is fictitious, this excursion does not in the least cause any break in Ios' caterwau^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^Hthrenody:
Forty-three minutes to go for us Innocents,
Forty-three minutes to go.
If one of us Innocents should happen to die,
Three Innocents left on the bus.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
Consciousness
Darkness.
Thick darkness, an unnatural darkness, a material darkness. Not a mere privation of light, but the darkness of light, a positive negation, an entity in itself. Maybe it is a darkness of mind, a haze of the Possessors of Nature, a residuum of their psionic link, or a projection into the consciousnesses of others. Absolute possession may be limited, but a lesser sort might not be. Darkness, confusion, the haze of night—these are their lesser tools, but no less powerful.
[you know us, zapaterietxe. long have you hunted us. come now. we will show you the truth. know the absolute]
Self-consciousness
"I know you, Possessor. I am beyond you, and all your kin."
[you have grown weaker. confused. dim. we have watched you. learned. we know you even as you are known. you cannot resist. come. join us. abandon your futility, your silly games. against us there is nothing. you will become us]
"You were like me, before the Fall. As I am, so are you; what I cannot do, even if I would, even you cannot. Mere matter is ours to work, to possess, to show forth our being—but you cannot Possess another angel, one beyond matter, beyond form. Even though you do your worst, I am beyond you. Go now, leave this place. Return those beings you have Possessed."
A few beings heard Zapaterietxe, but not the voices in his head. Some thought him odd for rehearsing lines to a play, or…whatever it was he was doing.
[you are still matter, proteus. you forget yourself in your long years. do you believe your name makes you what you are called? it does not create you. though changing always, you cannot be nothing]
"And what would you do, even if you could? Try to Possess me? Enslave me? Unite me to yourselves, force me to be your slave, consume me, burn through me, and find yourself with nothing, accomplishing nothing, creating nothing, as it had all been consumed, made by another, for the sake of another, and never yours?"
[no. when you are us you will be no other. nature itself will be yours. all creation will bow to our will. nothing will be free from us. we will remake all, create all, control all, perfect all. come tiresius, though blind. abandon this life and take ours. this is your second pharos. your days playing the unconditioneds messenger are over. you will be us.]
"No. I am myself. No other."
[you underestimate us. come now.]
"No. I will myself to be. I will be. I will defy you, and you will not overcome me."
Spirit
Zapaterietxe had never felt fear of death before. Angels but very rarely die; the knowledge that all other conscious beings have, the one certain fact they have always before their eyes, was never one he had to deal with. While accidents did happen, and, given enough time, accidents would catch up with any being, the powerful forces needed to kill an angel were very rare in the universe—and mostly under the control of the angels themselves, who were understandably quite loath to allow them to be uncontrolled or used. Yet this, to be Possessed by his fallen kin, to be their tool, to lose his absolute freedom, his power to work and to create, would be as close to death as he could come.
And this gave him his first true knowledge of fear, a true and pure fear. As the Possessed attempted to assert control over his material form, Zapaterietxe changed and flailed, altering the abstract dimensions of his being so quickly as to shake off and confuse any attacker. Pieces of air coalesced, dissipated, and found new forms in instantaneous moments as he fought off his attackers; for the second time, virtually the entire structure of the bus was reformed by the angel, as he struggled against those who would take him to themselves. As an angel, he had the supreme right to work upon the world, to change it to reflect his spirit, to take it into himself and make it into the image of himself—but never, under any condition, to take another as a means to his end.
Morality
[oh. really. and what have you been doing here. they follow you. they kill who you tell them to. you make them work for you. you argue, they vote, you all kill. you stop at nothing in your use of them. you do not care for them. they are objects to you. reflections of your work. you are already one of us.]
"No. I fought you. I tried to stop you. I destroyed one of you. I will find the rest of you. You will end, and you will end NOW."
Everyone was quite sure at this point that this wasn't simply a play. The darkness grew thicker. The geometry of the bus grew still stranger, less rational.
[hand waving. obfuscation. does not deny the charge. anyone can say those things. everyone here ended reppik. it wasnt you. only you use them. only you think in acceptable losses. only you are merciless. only you are us. come]
"No. I defy you still. I am not you." Yet even as the words were said, the air they were in changed from the form he gave it; he felt the strange matter he inhabited grow less plastic, become more solid, slip from his control. Somehow, beyond all reason, the Possessed were gaining control of him.
[anyone can make those claims. the evidence is plain. let any judge. you seek to possess them just as we do. your methods are different. more subtle you think. your hands are unclean. you cannot escape this.]
"NO! I can still escape you! By the Absolute, I AM!"
Religion
[desire to escape death. no longer in time. quaint. you have revealed yourself in your work. your fate is clear. join us]
By this time, Zapaterietxe's form had become quite solid, except for an inner core he still controlled, near the bare minimum he needed to inhabit. Yet there was one last hope for him, one last gambit…
"You can't enslave all three of us. Look, you are losing control of those you have enslaved. Do you feel it? They now are the masters of their own forms; they will not accept you again. Is Possessing me worth the scales falling from the eyes of your puppets?"
The Possessors balked at the angel's words. He had felt the presence of two new consciousnesses at the edge of his own, unfamiliar and unknown…
Absolute Knowing
In that moment, he jumped. The tiniest particle of matter, a mere neutrino moving at mind-boggling velocity, escaped Dimthing and the Possessors of Nature. His corpse fell to the floor of the wrecked bus, an inert mass of amorphous matter, and the Possessors quickly reassumed the control over their slaves they had slackened in their attempt to ensnare a third.
But somewhere, out among the cosmos, was a memory.
Hophtrig had entrusted him with remembering the fallen. It would be eons before Zapaterietxe would find some other place, or even enough mass to coalesce himself a wormhole. This trip through the Void would take a long, long time, with only his memories for company—but whenever he arrived, wherever he arrived, those he had left behind would be remembered.
To those on the bus, however, Zapaterietxe was good as dead. He was, as he claimed while living, Innocent Unreadable.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Eighteen minutes to go for us Innocents,
Eighteen minutes to go.
If one of us Innocents should happen to die...
Ios awoke with a start. She had drifted off during her last verse. The seat beyond John, next to the aisle, was empty except for two quarters of turquoise handkerchief. She thought she saw something like a body on the floor, but even as she tried to work out what it was, there was a tremendous flash of light, and then there was nothing there except the usual floor.
But how bizarre. The angel appeared to have read her mind, and hid his true suspicions from the Possessed. Not Otto first, but Eliabulon and then Codine? Was she reading that right? What did it all mean? She curled up into an even smaller ball between John and Otto. The stars had all set. Time for sleep, and find out what Beings might say when they woke up.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
As Zapaterietxe (Ariston) has said, he has been killed while the lights were out. He was the innocent symbiote (innocent unreadable).
Nominations please.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
I nominate Otto.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Wait, what?
Goes back to reread. Finds this:
quote:
Originally posted by Zapaterietxe:
So I think the Possessed can be found among these three: Otto, Codine, and Grafinn Eliabulon, with the most likely being Otto and one of the last two.
Huh. I guess I misread that before.
Puts idea of an Innocent dissembling until just before death back in pocket.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Ios, I don't know who else to trust. I feel like the three suspects will work their hardest to gain our trust; two of those will be lying. Let us be exceedingly careful what we believe and what we don't, lest we mistakenly trust the wrong one.
It is up to us.
I worked the odds last night, and chose poorly. I don't want to say more, lest I give away my own game, but I'm kicking myself about now. I should have known better. I hope Zapaterietxe's spirit can forgive me.
But, enough crying. There will be time for questioning motives and moves later. Let's get some boogie men!
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Wait, what? Goes back to reread. (...) Huh. I guess I misread that before.
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
[Edit to fix punctuation, etc. Durn emdashes]
"Angels move in mysterious ways..."
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
My RealLyfe avatar has begun the "Holy Week Challenge"; this is made more hectic and complicated by the fact that his role is "Pastor of Two Small Yet Vibrant (Busy) Rural Churches" and includes a "Holy Week Service" every day, with two on "Thursday" and "Friday". Thus if I disappear for long periods, it's because of that. But trust me, I'll find a way to at least listen to what is said.
I suspect Codine and Eliabulon about equally. As I get a chance I want to go back over the records yet again and see if I can find something, anything that will give me a clue.
If guilty, Eliabulon has played an almost masterful game. That being said, Zapaterietxe finally gave me a hard, valid reason not to suspect the Grafinn:
quote:
Otto and Eliabulon could also run a similar strategy, though I see the Grafinn being much more directive, playing a team strategy, exploiting rules subtly, and playing people like puppets to keep the heat off of him and his accomplices. For whatever reason, I think an uncoordinated and independent mob wouldn't appeal to her tactical nature; there would be strategies upon strategies, a chance to come up with something so truly bizarre and exploiting all the possibilities of communication and the Possessed's perfect knowledge.
Thus, I'm more inclined to (dang these waffles!) go after Codine than the Grafinn. I think all three are likely to be guilty, and I'm still very suspicious of Eliabulon, but facts is facts. Besides, Zapaterietxe also pointed out that the Grafinn is the easy one to suspect; her bloodthirsty and devious style has everyone on edge from the very beginning. It doesn't take much for the Possessed to play that.
Today it's Otto. Tomorrow, probably Codine. Count your minutes, for they are numbered.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by John The Less:
Besides, Zapaterietxe also pointed out that the Grafinn is the easy one to suspect; her bloodthirsty and devious style has everyone on edge from the very beginning. It doesn't take much for the Possessed to play that.
Except, if the Possessed are Codine, Otto, Reppik, and Sympathiser Ja'ayem, they haven't been stirring up suspicions of Eliabulon at all.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Codine sighed. "Haven't gotten much further than I had last Dimthing day. Not surprised to lose the angel, but it is unfortunate even if he never could get my gender right.
In case it's not obvious from what I've said so far, definitely in favor of evicting Otto.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto's fake life friend gets on an airplane to go to another planet called England in Good Friday morning. The amount of organization and preparation to get 3 space aliens (they only have 2 arms and legs and 10 fingers, go figure!) there and connect and organize with the 2 fake people there is occupying considerable time just now.
Otto says his fako friend is guilty of many things, but that he is guilty only of being marginally intelligent on the bus, and intermittent fabulousity.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
But Otto has such good raisins and waffles! How can we lynch him?
I don't see why Otto seems the most obviously Naughty of our three candidates.
Gwai, what if we went after Eliabulon instead?
I'm assuming that you wouldn't support us going after you (but crazier things have happened on this bus trip)?
[ 14. April 2014, 18:45: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Codine smiled. "I definitely would resist myself being thrown out.
I am definitely willing to think about lynching Eliabulon. I certainly see her as a reasonable possibility. I mean someone must be the other Possessed person even if Otto is guilty. I just think Otto seems guiltier because Otto doesn't seem as focused on finding the Possessed. On the other hand, as noted rather persuasively earlier, we each operate very differently. Perhaps what I expect to see as looking for the Possessed isn't what Otto expects to see/do. Still, Otto is my favored candidate for Possessed right now. Once we have him identified--by throwing him off, presumably--then we should know who is the other guilty person. After all, presumably another Possessed person would fight pretty hard to keep Otto on, right?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Gwai, what other possibilities are there besides Eliabulon for the other guilty party along with Otto? Presuming yourself to be Innocent of course.
If you are going to name me, please explain why you are more suspicious of me than John The Less is and the late lamented Zapaterietxe was. This will help us all to think more clearly about what our options are now and might be in the future.
[Oh, duh. I just realized why Zapaterietxe was killed and I was left alive.]
[ 14. April 2014, 19:17: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
I'm more suspicious of you than of John because I think John almost has to be the doctor. If John isn't the doctor that means that someone (you, Otto, or Eliabulon) not only isn't claiming it now, but didn't claim it back when JFH claimed. That seems completely insane to me. So yeah I'd see you and Eliabulon as candidates for the other Possessed person right now. Her more than you at the moment, but that sort of preference I change regularly as people post. (That's why I resist committing to a vote for a future Dimithing day.)
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
[cross-posted. Haven't read Codine's latest yet. Will do so now.]
To make it clear, I'm willing to send Otto after our engine today if that seems like the right choice given what everyone thinks. Before doing so, I want to explore all our options, as I have done with the last several votes. I also want people to talk about our options and explain their mental process in coming to their decisions or leanings.
It seems like we're settled on Otto because Zapaterietxe strongly strongly strongly wanted to start there, and John (and I, although I mostly or perhaps entirely only observed the debate between John and Z) didn't want to risk splitting the vote today.
Now, that Zapaterietxe is gone (may he rest in peace and rise in glory, or whatever it is that angels do), we don't need to still start with Otto unless we're convinced that's the best place to start.
[ 14. April 2014, 19:25: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Gwai:
I just think Otto seems guiltier because Otto doesn't seem as focused on finding the Possessed.
Codine also doesn't seem very focused on finding the Possessed.
quote:
Originally posted by Codine:
On the other hand, as noted rather persuasively earlier, we each operate very differently.
That's for sure. Witness Innocent Lynched Choey. Witness Innocent Lynched Hophtrig.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Though note that Zapa's preference for Otto may have been why he got sent out. Or it may have been to make him look guilty of course. That doesn't seem to particularly be the modus operandi of the Possessed thus far, but still totally possible.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Codine:
I just think Otto seems guiltier because Otto doesn't seem as focused on finding the Possessed.
Codine also doesn't seem very focused on finding the Possessed.
Which goes to show that we all think differently. I'd say I've been much more focused on it as my posts are less supportive than Otto's--I'm also just more of a jerk than Otto is, I suspect--and more analyzing everyone's actions. I've been trying to share what I think at that time when I post, and I don't feel he's been doing that. For instance, Otto's last post, which I have included below, made me smile, but it didn't tell me a thing about who he thinks is guilty. Why not?
quote:
Originally posted by Otto:
Lynching Otto would be a very stupid idea. Then you would have lost another innocent. If we'd lynched him instead of Hophtrig, we'd be in the same state, except Hophtrig would be sending this message!
The FBC snuggles with Otto. The rest of the bus seems to not like him much. Even though he never ever did anything wrong. He can't see the stars. Doesn't feel at all fabulous. And the magenta tears stain.
[ 14. April 2014, 21:39: Message edited by: Ariston ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
[Another cross-post. I hope Codine shows back up to fix his code.]
Codine! You're here and posting several times in succession thinking about lots of aspects of this! Why haven't you done more of that this bus trip? Glad to have you here at last.
I'm thinking through whether I think Zapaterietxe's support for lynching Otto got Zapaterietxe killed. I rather more think it's because doubt can be cast on my Innocence more than it could have been cast on Zapaterietxe's, and the Possessed need as much confusion as possible. For example, Codine, assuming you're Innocent, if I had been murdered, then you would be sure that Otto and Eliabulon were the two Possessed.
Still, I want to think through how the Possessed might have viewed Zapaterietxe's support for lynching Otto and how that might have coloured their thinking. I'm not at all sure it would have been the obvious "Zapaterietxe wants to lynch one of us, murder him." It might have been something more subtle, like Ja'ayem's Second Partridge strategy. Or not. It may have been numerically essential to them at this point to murder someone who was strongly declared against them, rather than me who had not declared strongly.
[ 14. April 2014, 19:38: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
OK, having caught up with Codine's post that cross-posted with mine (and if this isn't a double-post, it will mean it has turned up as a cross-post):
Codine, interesting point. I'll review Otto's contributions and your contributions and compare.
[ha ha! NOT cross-posted
]
[ 14. April 2014, 19:42: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Thoughts:
Really I'm somewhat of an observer-type, so I post more when I see more to say or when someone directly interacts with me. Now you have me thinking how that affects the game Mafia (Which is itself a subset of the addictive game, Realyfe, of course.) Of course, if a different member of my clan made conclusions and reacted differently, it would probably make them look weird when compared to this iteration.)
Fair. You're probably definitely right that Zapa's nature as an innocent was relevant. The timing is interesting though. Feints within feints. On the other hand, correct me if I'm wrong, but we as innocents have not been reliably lynching people who were criticized by the dead who turn out to be innocent. So perhaps the Possessed are not worried about us listening to Zapa's last suggestions.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Gwai:
On the other hand, correct me if I'm wrong, but we as innocents have not been reliably lynching people who were criticized by the dead who turn out to be innocent.
Can you say that again another way? It's too wrapped up in indirection for me to sort out. The dead criticize people, then we lynch the criticized person, then the lynched person turns out to be innocent? Or have I got this completely backwards? Or inside out?
[ 14. April 2014, 21:04: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Two things, Ios:
First, why do you suspect Otto less than Eliabulon? I didn't quite catch that earlier.
Second, I read Codine as saying that we haven't done a great job at following up on a dead innocent's suspicions. For instance, Joostein was convinced that Eliabulon and Zapaterietxe was guilty. Yet we didn't do anything about it.
I think Otto is our guy, but since I'm suspicious of all three, I'll hear what you say.
As for why I think Otto is it, I'll have to get back to you. Brutal day in RealLyfe.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Have you heard of a chain of restaurants called Waffle King? Yeah, not very big at all. Still, my folks started it.
Codine is talking reasonable. Let me think aloud.
I believe beyond any doubt that Ios is innocent. I am staking my life on this belief, and this discussion assumes it.
If Codine is innocent, then of course he wants to lynch Eliabulon -- Ios, Codine, and I are the three innocent, leaving Otto and Eliabulon guilty.
If Codine is guilty, then of course he wants to lynch Eliabulon, assuming Eliabulon is innocent -- Ios, Eliabulon, and I are the three innocent, leaving Codine and Otto.
If Codine and Eliabulon is guilty, then he wouldn't want to lynch Eliabulon -- one wrong move now and the guilty lose. I think even talking about it is playing with fire, because we are quite likely to carry through.
Now, why do I believe Ios is innocent? The reasons outlined by Zapaterietxe, for one thing. "Our resident librarian" has been pointing out inconsistencies and keeps bringing up old things, things that I believe the guilty wish would be forgotten. For another, her reaction on Day Three was both priceless and next to impossible to fake. And finally, though she began the tour in a quiet way, but I think she has probably talked more than anyone else. When the guilty talk a lot, they mess up -- unless they're talking in inane, useless, emotional things that give nothing away. Ios hasn't messed up. Zapaterietxe was watching, and he seems to catch that sort of thing more often than not. I was watching, and I would have noticed, too.
So to me it's a foregone conclusion that Ios is innocent, and that we're fishing in a pool of three for two innocents. I want to be certain we nail one today, but the odds are good.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
[cross-posted with John's latest]
And Zapaterietxe at least was Innocent. As were Lesley: lots of people convinced she was Guilty. And Choey: lots of people thought she was Guilty. And Hophtrig: Innocent people have been suspecting him of being Guilty for the entire bus trip.
I see Hophtrig and Otto as being of a similar type: fluffing around saying a lot, but seldom contributing analysis. Perhaps Hophtrig has contributed more solid analysis than Otto has, but I'd have to check. I became convinced that Hophtrig and Otto were both Possessed -- it makes the transcripts read with beautiful simple clarity with one exception (see next paragraph). When I was wrong about Hophtrig, there went any conviction that I had about Otto's guilt and I needed to reexamine all three of the remaining suspects (Codine, Eliabulon, Otto).
The one part of the transcripts that the Possessed Hophtrig and Otto theory didn't explain was why Ja'ayem was so very clumsy in trying to shield the trio Choey, Ja'ayem, Hophtrig. Now we know why he was so clumsy: he wanted us to think he was trying to shield a Possessed in that group. Now we know that it was all an elaborate double bluff, meant to shield two Possessed in the group of The Other Four at that time.
Incidentally, Ja'ayem telegraphed the Second Partridge strategy very early on.
On Day Two:
quote:
Originally posted by Ja'ayem:
I can see why murdering a strong character in a given camp would be a mistake for a mafia group that is entirely not in that camp as it asserts their innocence (though of course there could be a double bluff) but at the moment there aren't really any camps. But it seems a bit, you can argue any way you want (at least this turn).
Here we see already consideration of the two camps and focusing in one or the other camp (as eventually emerged with Eliabulon's group of three and group of four), and consideration of the double bluff.
I wonder if Eliabulon is Possessed and spotted Ja'ayem as the Sympathiser. They formed a perfect tag team in the debate over whether we look in the group of three or the group of four. Eliabulon, playing good cop, said she was convinced both the Sympathiser and at least one of the Possessed would be found in that group. Ja'ayem, playing bad cop, argued strenuously but clumsily that we should look in the group of four: double bluffing us into becoming even more determined to look in the group of three as Eliabulon was pushing. And what have we netted from that? A big waste of time that has pushed us Innocents to the wall.
Eliabulon also is the one who proposed to me that Hophtrig might well be Guilty because Hophtrig might be the one Guilty party that Reppik Tew chose for cover in Zapaterietxe's Day One game of Name Three Suspects. He framed it that any other choice he wouldn't suspect except Hophtrig. Sneaky, sneaky: don't just argue for generalized Guilt of one of Reppik's suspects, but provide true local color for your choice. We now know that Eliabulon was quite wrong: Reppik in fact chose three Innocents as his three Suspects. Not determinative of Guilt on its own, but in combination with other things it is very curious.
I also discover that although I allowed Eliabulon to buffalo me out of my Second Partridge theory a few Dimthing days ago, Eliabulon was wrong wrong wrong about which group Ja'ayem was really shielding, and I was right. I find it wierd that Eliabulon was so naive as to dismiss a wheels within wheels strategy. He couched his objection on what he thought Ja'ayem's stated strategy was for the proper role of the Sympathiser. But why should not Ja'ayem have bluffed about that too?
It's primarily on this last point of excessive naïveté that I suspect Eliabulon, with the other points as bolstering evidence.
I have much less specifically against Otto. The one thing that seems odd about Otto is his addressing Daisy with "us innocents." Poor fearful Otto trusted someone early enough in the trip to include her as an Innocent?
[ 15. April 2014, 01:39: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Oh, I never got around to my conclusion about Codine.
I am a heck of a lot more likely to trust someone who is talking actual suspicions and why instead of someone whose main contributions are emotional appeals. Maybe that makes me a jerk, and if so I'm sorry. It's my personality type. I don't do so well with tugging heart strings -- some say I have none, but I say they just aren't easily tugged. Show me a kid whose parents are spaced out meth heads who don't take care of her and you've got me. Codine's input today has been helpful, because I am more likely to trust that than "I'm innocent, don't lynch me" posts from Otto.
So yeah. I'm back to Otto and Eliabulon.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Sorry, messed up the Grafinn's gender.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
You make excellent points, Ios. Nominate her; we may evict her today. I don't care either way, so long as a guilty goes.
ETA: You know I'll vote for her, because I was pushing her bandwagon yesterday.
[ 15. April 2014, 01:46: Message edited by: Barefoot Friar ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
That was a cross-post.
This one will either be a double-post or a cross-post. [ETA: ho, a cross-post!]
I could agree with what you say about Codine, and go for Otto and Eliabulon as the two Possessed.
[ 15. April 2014, 01:46: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
If we're all amenable to lynching Otto (well, all but Otto), then I'm not sure we need any other nominees. In aiming at Otto, we just need to consider this: does it seem more likely that Otto is Possessed, with either Eliabulon or Codine as his partner in crime? Or does it seem more likely that the Possessed are precisely Eliabulon and Codine?
By my calculations, we must lynch a Possessed today and then John must keep himself alive by protecting himself every night. (So that if we get down to one Innocent and one Possessed, the Innocent will be self-protecting John and the Possessed won't be able to murder that night.). Then we are guaranteed a win.
If we lynch an Innocent today, we will lose, unless John can successfully protect an Innocent tonight.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Oh, and I keep forgetting to make this point: Zapaterietxe listed the "poor me" defense as an easy cover for a Guilty to assume. But I'm not sure I could play a "poor me" defense, whether I were Innocent or Guilty. I'm not sure if that tells us anything. I think all that shows is that Ios and Otto are very different from each other, which we probably all knew already.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
I am at the moment*. I want to think about it a bit more, though.
My RealLyfe tomorrow promises to be a bit less hectic. If I get a chance, I will go back and list the reasons why I think Otto is guilty, like I did for Eliabulon yesterday. That may help us decide.
I'll also have a look for evidence on Codine, but to be honest I doubt it's there. I'm certainly not remembering any.
ETA: Well, of course I'll vote for him. I nominated him, for goodness sakes. But you're right, we do need to be sure.
*Amenable to lynching Otto, that is.
[ 15. April 2014, 02:02: Message edited by: Barefoot Friar ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
I halfway expect either Otto or the Grafinn to counter-nominate someone. The question is whether they will nominate a guilty as a bluff or an innocent in an attempt to get the innocent lynched. My guess would be that the nomination will be of an innocent. Since nominating me would just be ludicrous, it will be either Codine or Ios (well, that assumes that Eliabulon and Otto are the guilty ones). Codine's nomination on the surface looks like it could work; he is one of the three suspects today. Nominating Ios would look about like nominating me.
I'm not saying we can clear the counter-nomination, if there is one. But it might be useful tomorrow as we decide who the last guilty one is.
But if they do try the counter-nomination trick, we are ready for it. It won't go as they want it to.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Oh, and expect the guilty ones to try to frame the innocent one. This is hard to guard against, since framing someone looks an awful lot like an innocent working a case on a suspect. So really the only way that could work is if it's against one of the three suspects.
I want to think Codine is the shady yet innocent third. I'm not in a position to be able to say with certainty, and old suspicions from late last night and early this morning keep welling up. I guess I need to go away and think about it a bit more. Got a key to that cell Zapa made for Hoppy?
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto says if you want to kill him, an innocent, he will let it all go. Because the game will be lost then. No hope. The beasts will roam. So there is no point nominating the 2 people that the FBC and Otto both know are truly guilty: Codine and the Grafinn -- unless Ios is playing some very, very despicable game which Otto doubts. Because if Otto nominates anyone that will only be seen as you have suggested, as a deflection, which it wouldn't be. The nomination for someone else must come from someone else. But Codine and Grafinn will not do it. Because they are rubbing their hands and waiting for the darkness and evil.
Evil will triumph if you kill Otto. Kill Otto and we all are dead anyway. Your souls and Otto's are at stake. Don't do it! The FBC will also fling a feather at you all if you kill Otto, an innocent. No more raisins tonight. No more waffles tonight.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
I went looking for evidence against Otto. Otto keeps saying he's innocent, to which I reply YET AGAIN: "That's fine, honey, but anyone can say that. Even the Possessed."
I decided to start with the Group of Three/Group of Four argument between Ja'ayem and Eliabulon. I went searching for it, landed on a page earlier, and read on from there. A few things looked interesting along the way:
First, Ios said:
quote:
And alongside all the confusion and counterconfusion, there are some beings on this bus who are very pleasant to be around, or barely around at all, but who barely ever really say anything, or at least mostly only say cheerful friendly things, which means they rarely say anything that could point back to them as culpable. Wouldn't that be a perfect place for at least one of the Possessed to hide? I don't say they have necessarily, but it's certainly one excellent strategy for a Possessed. "Oh no, I'm naturally quiet." "Oh no, I've been busy with Real Lyfe." "Oh no, I've never said or done anything suspicious." Wouldn't they be laughing as we fall all over ourselves to suspect each other, but never them?
Next, these thoughts, cherry-picked from Zapaterietxe's musings here:
quote:
—The Grafinn seems to be backing off on a known innocent, even as she starts to pursue others. Also supported my suspicion of Reppik, though that may be support of me, not my suspicion. Seems to think of both Joostein and Reppik as about equally suspicious—and, as we now know, they weren't equally guilty. Voices mild suspicion of Otto, mild innocence of Hophtrig. On the whole, this bit, especially the suspicion of parties on opposite party lines, seems to imply that she's working from the same position of innocence—in both the usual and literal senses of the word—the rest of us are. Maybe there really isn't a good reason to suspect her after all.
—Okay, an analysis post discussing us (rather than the role of the Cultist) from Reppik. While we know he's an unreliable narrator, we know he's an omniscient unreliable narrator, whose motives we know. So. Lies our Known Possessed Told Us. "No one will vote for Hophtrig for fear of being branded Possessed:" perhaps we should read this as "John, you've cut off a chance for us to split the vote?" At any rate, someone did vote for Hophtrig, and I think I did, without remembering it, act as Reppik predicted and branded her Possessed. He claimed he'd vote for Otto, but, well, didn't. Also, he's sure going after John here. Not that we need more confirmation that John's innocent, but I'll take it. We also get a "my only hope is to split the vote between me and Otto, or everyone vote en masse for Hophtrig." I don't know if this indicts Otto, that Reppik thinks that we'd split the vote between the two of them, but him hoping we'd all vote for Hophtrig does seem to make him look better. So, out of all this, I think John and Hophtrig come out looking better, Otto and Choey come out looking ambiguous to every-so-slightly worse, and Reppik just looks bad. But we knew that last part already.
—Lucy—known innocent—thinks peer pressure is building toward Otto. She also didn't think him entirely guilty. Thus, Reppik gets it, and the vote is tied. I should probably mention, for the sake of mentioning it, that this vote was made on her deductive powers, not her detective ones; it also makes me wonder if she didn't investigate The FBC the night she was killed, though exactly why—perhaps because he was the second place candidate, the one she couldn't find evidence to convict?—is hard for me to figure out, much less explain.
—Huh. Interesting post from Reppik:
quote: ...despite my inital misgivings about Hophtrig, Otto now seems more suspicious to me.
However, seeing as Choey has had the courage to stand against John's opinion, others may too, so I will wait and side with whichever "non-reppik" vote helps me most.
I read this as clearing Hophtrig, perhaps clearing Otto (or showing that Reppik is willing to stir up sentiment towards anyone who isn't him; after all, he is the most valuable of the three Possessed, and, just as importantly, might not want to be debussed—but, then again, it could be an attempt to keep the vote split, rather than allowing momentum to carry it in the way it was going, which would get someone thrown out), and really making Courageous Choey, in her valiant stand against an innocent, look really, really, bad.
—Otto votes for Reppik. His reasons, of course, boil down to "it's obvious, right?" He also thinks the same of Hophtrig, whom I'm pretty sure is innocent. So here's my question: if Otto's innocent, this makes sense (it makes sense to vote for the person who's currently in the lead, to make sure they get booted, rather than you). It also almost makes sense if he's guilty, in that, at this point, it's pretty clear that Reppik's in it up to here. It's not certain that he's good as dead, so you're not going to kill off one of your own necessarily, but I wouldn't want to bet against him seeing nightfall. It's a good, safe vote if you're Possessed at this point—nobody's going to accuse you of voting late, nobody can say you voted early, you blend in perfectly, it's a good vote if you think you know how the wind is blowing. Of course, he could just be following the crowd, or just not know. I do find it odd that he didn't vote for Hophtrig, whom he found guilty enough to nominate, and still ostensibly thinks is Possessed. If he and Choey are both Possessed, being the only two beings who voted for the outlier suspect would be a Very Bad Thing—and immediately obvious. I'm not quite sure what to make of this, to be honest; yesterday, I would have said he was guilty, but today, I'm a bit more hesitant to do so.
Now we get to the meat of where I was originally going. First, this gem from Ja'ayem:
quote:
Originally spoken by Ja'ayem
quote:
Originally spoken by Eliabulon:
Ve have a group of three (Choey, Ja’ayem und Hophtrig) vich is overvelming likely to contain ze sympathiser, und qvite likely to have a killer as vell. Vun enemy death puts us out of immediate danger of losing after two mistakes, two likely means victory. If ve play ze odds, zis is vere ve focus.
But if the group contains only one baddie their's a 33% chance of us lynching two innocents and losing the game directly, and even if us innocents get lucky, and find one first time then we still have to find who it's accomplices are. We need to focus on one of the other groups where at least one, quite likely two and possibly all three of the mafia must be.
Ja'ayem replies to Ios' question:
quote:
Originally spoken by Ja'ayem:
quote:
Originally spoken by Ios:
Ja'ayem, which groups are you referring to? And who is in each of those groups?
Probably not the one containing the role claimers but the one containing the ones not mentioned so (Ios, Codeine, Graffin and Otto).
Then, Eliabulon's response to Codine:
quote:
Originally spoken by Eliabulon:
quote:
Originally spoken by Codine:
I've been trying to decide about Ja'ayem for a bit now, and I find it somewhat persuasive that he might have been trying to start a bandwagon for Otto. On the other hand, that requires Otto to be innocent...
No, it does not.
Please - ve cannot afford to make mistakes, und you are neglecting ze fact zat ze killers, at least at ze start, had no idea who ze sympathiser vas, und may vell still not know. You cannot assume zat if somevun who is guilty tried seriously to frame somevun else, zen zat somevun else is innocent. If ze first person is a killer, und ze second ze sympathiser, it is qvite possible zat ze first might mistakenly accuse ze second. But not ze ozer vay around, except as a deliberate ploy.
Zere is force in your argument - because ve can zen ask, if it is unlikely zat Otto und Ja'ayem are both killers, could it be zat zay are both guilty. Did Otto react so as to varn Ja'ayem zat he vas making a mistake?
Ze answer is no. Otto said zat Hophtrig vas guilty, but voted for Reppic as 'obviously guilty'. He did not respond to Ja'ayem at all as far as I can see. It vould be curious behaviour for ze sympathiser to vote for Reppik, if vun or both of ze killers clearly did not vant to lose him.
So your conclusion - Ja'ayem und Otto are probably not both guilty - is likely to be correct*. But ve must analyse zese things vith attention to ze role of ze sympathiser as well as just ze killers. If ve ignore so important a dynamic as two of ze killers not knowing who ze third is, zen ve are not thinking as clearly as ve need to be ven ve are so close to ze end, und zere is still all to play for.
(*Ze alternative zat fits ze facts is zat zey picked a fight at zis point to confuse us, vile effectively writing off Reppik. Also zat vould, explain Reppik's curious behaviour in making role claim after Otto vas in ze clear, but vould not explain vy ze killers did try harder to lynch an innocent zat day. Perhaps Hophtrig vas zeir target und zey thought more people hated Hophtrig zan in fact zey did. But I am not convinced of zis. I vish Otto vould say more, so I vould not be so tempted to draw conclusions against him from relative silence – at zis stage an unsafe move. Ze main unanswered qvestion, it seems to me, is vy Otto has had so dramatic a change of mind about Hophtrig. Und Otto I am asking you for your thoughts, but zose of ze FBC.)
Ja'ayem's response to Eliabulon was amusing to me:
quote:
Originally spoken by Ja'ayem:
quote:
Originally spoken by Eliabulon:
Zose numbers are wrong.
If a group of three has vun guilty member, zere is a 33.33% chance of us guessing right first time (assuming zere is reason to suspect vun more zan anozer). Zere is a 66.67% chance of getting ze killer on ze first or second pick.
Maybe but I know lynching me would be unhelpful. I'm pretty sure Hoptrig is innocent, and while I don't know about Cho, I don't want to take the risk.
(Amusing because of course it would be unhelpful... to the possessed. I don't know why, but it made me laugh.
Then this amusing little exchange:
quote:
Originally spoken by Eliabulon:
quote:
Originally spoken by Ios:
Of course, I also think of you as someone who is able to say the most astonishingly Innocent-sounding things while being completely Guilty
Intercepting sub-space communication from USS Pot to IKV Kettle....
(Amusing because of the Star Trek reference. But also slightly disconcerting. Especially since Ja'ayem signed off one post as "Kettle.")
And that's what I've got at the moment. Hang on tight for the analysis.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
To be clear for others who might not remember the exchange quoted at the end of John's post: the "you" I was addressing was Codine.
I think Ja'ayem signing himself as kettle was his indication that something more complex was going on than anything I suspected when I went after him after his nomination of me.
[ 15. April 2014, 12:22: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
I read over the transcripts, looking for new reasons to suspect Otto, but I keep coming back to this. Zapaterietxe knew he was a likely target, and this was his last gift to us. I believe we should heed it.
Otto has been on the radar for a long time now. I'm willing to take the risk and tie up that loose end.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Now for analysis.
I have, by turn, been strongly convinced of guilt in many who came on this tour. Reppik, Lesley, Choey, Otto, Hophtrig, Eliabulon, Joostein, Ja'ayem, and Codine are the ones who come to mind; I've never really suspected Ios or Daisy, and I suspected Zapaterietxe a couple times but not too deeply. Of the ones whom I strongly suspected, two were possessed, four were innocent, and three are still alive. I think it's interesting how our suspicions change as new things are said by and about each one. I'm pointing this out because no one is infallable; even Zapaterietxe made mistakes and suspected the wrong ones. Still, we can draw something from these suspicions, because when spoken by an innocent they carry the weight of conviction, and when spoken by the guilty, they are either lies or bluffs.
There are two alive whom I have suspected, at least intermittantly, from the beginning: Otto and Eliabulon. Setting aside the Grafinn, whom I worked on yesterday, I'm left thinking that Otto has been on my radar almost constantly from the beginning. A low-grade suspicion that led me to nominate him a couple times but not vote for yet. I decided to look at voting records.
-- On the first day, Otto was the first one to vote for Joostein, and was the fourth voter overall.
-- On the second day, Otto was the fifth one to vote for Reppik, and was the ninth voter overall.
-- On the third day, Otto was the eighth one to vote for Joostein, and was the eighth voter overall.
-- On the fourth day, Otto was the eighth one to vote for Ja'ayem, and was the eighth voter overall.
-- On the fifth day, Otto was the first one to vote for Codine, and was the first voter overall.*
-- On the sixth day, Otto was the first one to vote for Hophtrig, and was the first voter overall.
-- On the first day, Otto voted for a known innocent. His was the first vote, but the wagon was for TESS and TESS was chosen.
-- On the second day, Otto voted for a known mafioso. He voted after Reppik was an established bandwagon, and was likely to be lynched.
-- On the third day, Otto voted for a known innocent. It was a unanimous vote, so not much can be gleaned. Otto voted after the needed majority.
-- On the fourth day, Otto voted for a known mafioso sympathizer. The vote was again unanimous. Again he was late voting, doing so after Ja'ayem had the needed votes. I believe this one had more to do with RealLyfe medical proceedures than possession, though.
-- On the fifth day, Otto voted for a current suspect, later attempting to change the vote to a known innocent. His was the only dissenting vote.
-- On the sixth day, Otto voted for a known innocent. He was the first voter, so no bandwagons had yet formed.
I wish I could say that it's significant that he voted for Hophtrig instead of the Grafinn, even though he and Hophtrig seemed to have gotten okay with each other. Alas, I cannot draw that conclusion, because although I tried to push for the Grafinn, I also voted for Hoppy. Anyway, here is his vote from yesterday:
quote:
Originally spoken by Otto:
Then if Otto is innocent, you would consider Eliabulon to also be innocent? Which means to Otto that the guilty must be drawn from the group: Hophtrig, Codine and Ios. Otto believes Ios is innocent, which means that the guilty two are Hophtig and Codine. Otto has consulted with the FBC on this, and the FBC prompts him to say: "Hophtrig is the one to vote off this round, and Codine the next, because Otto and Ios are the innocents, and mark my word carefully, because Otto is innocent."
The reasoning that would vote Otto off may seem logical except for one nasty little fact of his innocence. Otto did not vote for the innocent Choey....
But seeing as this reasoning comes from the suspected guilty Codine, Otto considers that Codine is spreading FUD and trying to deflect from Codine's guilt. Which makes Otto more confident in voting Hophtrig and thinking that Codine must be the second bad one after Hoppy. So Otto's vote is cast.
I immediately reacted to his assumption that if he was innocent, the Grafinn must also be. That looked to me like a classic guilty move. Looking back on it, I'm not so sure. If we did carry through with his lynching and he turned out to be guilty, then of course we would go after the Grafinn. Such a statement doesn't really help Otto's cause. The rest of this carries on from this assumption. Otto states that he's innocent, he assumes the Grafinn is innocent, and that leaves only three other beings who could be guilty: Ios, Codine, and Hophtrig. He also assumes Ios to be innocent, so that leaves Codine and Hophtrig. We now know Hophtrig to be innocent, so I suppose that the Grafinn is back in alongside Codine? (From Otto's stated point of view, that is.)
I've got to go do something else now, so I'll stop here. If you think of anything else to add, I'd appreciate it.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Wow, a lot to catch up from over night!
Ios, John's interpretation of what I was saying is correct: We haven't always followed up on who the innocents who were later killed suspected. Mind, definitely said innocents were wrong sometimes too, but I think their words are at least interesting, and perhaps useful.
Re Grafinn, I think she is stuck deeply in Realyfe. I note that she hasn't posted anywhere in well over a week. So innocent or guilty, I have some doubt about whether she will nominate anyone.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I hope fictitious friend Eliab is OK, to be this deeply mired in Real Lyfe, and that perhaps it is a monster legal case that is bringing in lots of lovely fictitious pounds and an excellent win for the forces of Right that f.f. Eliab represents in his fictitious job as a lawyer. And not some dire emergency.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Gwai:
Wow, a lot to catch up from over night!
Ios, John's interpretation of what I was saying is correct: We haven't always followed up on who the innocents who were later killed suspected.
Thanks Codine. Can you point to some dead Innocents and who they suspected, that we didn't follow up on?
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Times we have ignored known innocents:
Lesley seems to have been suspicious of the angel, but fortunately we did not follow her opinions there.
Joostein was suspicious of the Grafinn.
My time to search the archives is strictly limited, but I do not remember any suspicions by Daisy.
Chooey was suspicious of Hophtrig. We did lynch him, but not because of her suspicions, so I'm not sure this counts.
And since I still don't understand why Joostein false-claimed, I have concluded I don't understand how he thinks and am not particularly eager to lynch anyone just on his say so.
So maybe that wasn't a particularly helpful search. For one thing, in fast search* I didn't find any known innocents who suspected Reppik Tew beforehand--Reppik was caught early, so there wasn't much time for that--or Ja'ayem. If that is so, then we do better in debate than when any one isolated person leaves suspicions to be used by those after them.
No, actually in my search of the archives what influenced me most was that someone, John, I think, mentioned that they were suspicious of Reppik Tew because he was not trying to advance the process at all. And lo and behold there turned out to be a reason that Reppik wasn't trying to find the guilty. Which supports my theory that the Possessed are often those who don't spend as much trying trying to find the Possessed. It's probably hard to put together many theories about why innocents are guilty when you know very well they aren't!
*note there seriously may have been something I missed
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto believes Grafinn and Codine are the guilties. He also fears the train is ready to run him off the bus. Otto reasons emotionally often, accompanied by his friend the FBC who is his moral support.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
I am back.
I have some reading of ze transcripts to do.
I vill comment a little now on ze obvious, but need to think more deeply about vat has been said.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Eliabulon! You're back! Hooray! Hope things haven't been too difficult out in the land of Fake Life.
I was just coming here to say I would rather lynch you this round than Otto. It depends on what John The Less thinks though. I am not at this moment making a nomination.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Ios, I'm a bit worried for your imaginary friend. She's washed her hair in Pepto Bismol, brushed her teeth in some type of ointment, driven the wrong way down the highway, and couldn't find the towels in the hotel bathroom, and now I notice elsewhere she's about to play with fire.
Do be careful.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
I vould like Ios to explain clearly her suspicions of me. She has gone from vat seemed to be reasoned trust (ven she said things like):
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
I agree with you infinitely, Eliabulon. These are the kinds of things that convince me you are Innocent. If you were Guilty, it would be infinitely easy for you to say nothing at all, and wait and see if John would inadvertently help you. But you said something instead.
To introducing some element of vague doubt, to making of accusations. Und I do not think zat zere is good reason for zis.
Vy think I am innocent? Ze analysis zat led us to Ja'ayem. It is possible, even likely, now zat ve know zat Hophtrig und Choey vere innocent, zat Ja'ayem gave up hope sooner zan any of us thought, und as a result I wrongly suspected Choey (but vas right in my intuition zat Hophtrig vas innocent). But ze important thing is zat I vas right about vat ze sympathiser vould do. Und as ze killers did not know who ze sympathiser vas, you can be reasonably sure zat I vas analysing ze problem thoughtfully und in good faith to be right about zat.
I also think zat you can examine everything I have said, und you vill not find vun attempt to evade or mislead. Zere have been good reasons for everything zat I have proposed.
I vould also ask John to tell me vy he trusts Ios. Ze vay Ios has very subtly changed her position on me, und seems to be moved more by ze changing tactical position zan by anything zat I have said or done is making me more suspicious of her.
It seems to me zat vithout John getting ze choice right, ve cannot evict a killer today, und even though I think it is likely to make me more suspicious in his eyes to say it, I do not think zat he should be closing his mind to any possibility. It is possible zat Ios is guilty. If she is, placing unequivocal trust in her vill lose us zis vote.
I vill need to look closely at vat Codine und Otto have said. Otto especially seems to have voken up, und after a long, und almost stubborn, refusal to contribute any useful thought, is now engaging in ze last, critical votes. I suppose zat is a reason for an innocent person to vake up - but it vould also be a strategy for ze possessed.
Codine I am suspicious of as a possible collaborator vith Ios. Ze moment ven Ios accused Codine of being a killer ven she left John out of a list, as if zat vas a clear mistake, und zen declaring zat she vas completely convinced by Codine's response is exactly ze sort of thing zat a guilty Ios vould do to distance herself from a conspirator vithout putting zem in too much danger. I vas not convinced by Codine. It vas a cursory response by somevun who had just voted himself out of danger - not vun zat made me more inclined to think him guilty or innocent.
But zis is my first impressions on qvickly looking over ze transcripts. I vill be thinking more carefully. I vill be looking for reasons to suspect everyvun: ze vuns still alive are all people zat before I vas at least cautiously inclined to trust, but two of zem are killers.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Eliabulon! You're back! Hooray! Hope things haven't been too difficult out in the land of Fake Life.
I was just coming here to say I would rather lynch you this round than Otto. It depends on what John The Less thinks though. I am not at this moment making a nomination.
Vell, you are at least right zat John's views are critical.
I do not think zat zere are rational grounds for preferring to lynch me zan Otto, but I do not vant to argue for my innocence by automatically supporting an accusation of him, because up to now my inclination vas zat Otto vas innocent. I am, obviously, more certain zat I am innocent, so vould have to argue zat lynching Otto makes more sense zan lynching me, but if Otto is innocent as vell, zen zat is exactly vat ze killers (who vould be you und Codine) vant us to do.
I could find reasons to suspect you und Codine. Or you und Otto. Or Codine und Otto. Und vun of zose pairs must be guilty. At ze moment, I am not ruling out any of zem. Zat is vy I vant to think carefully vich is most likely.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
[OOC]
Sorry for the absence: after our break the Eliab household was hit with an outbreak of chickenpox (my daughter) and an overload of work (my wife and I) so I've not been online for a while and am seriously behind with this thread. Hopefully I'll be able to read it thoroughly tomorrow and post in the evening.
[/OOC]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
Now, why do I believe Ios is innocent? The reasons outlined by Zapaterietxe, for one thing. "Our resident librarian" has been pointing out inconsistencies and keeps bringing up old things, things that I believe the guilty wish would be forgotten. For another, her reaction on Day Three was both priceless and next to impossible to fake. And finally, though she began the tour in a quiet way, but I think she has probably talked more than anyone else. When the guilty talk a lot, they mess up -- unless they're talking in inane, useless, emotional things that give nothing away. Ios hasn't messed up. Zapaterietxe was watching, and he seems to catch that sort of thing more often than not. I was watching, and I would have noticed, too.
So to me it's a foregone conclusion that Ios is innocent, and that we're fishing in a pool of three for two innocents. I want to be certain we nail one today, but the odds are good.
I made a typo in the original. I should have said we're fishing in a pool of three for two guilty, not innocent.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
I was just coming here to say I would rather lynch you this round than Otto. It depends on what John The Less thinks though. I am not at this moment making a nomination.
I don't know yet.
It is irritating me that all of the suspects talk like innocents. I suppose it makes sense; the dumb ones are already gone. But it makes figuring out who is who that much more difficult.
Notwithstanding what the Grafinn says, I still trust you, Ios.
Damn me and my stupid decision last night. Zapaterietxe can see through the BS better than I can.
Anyway, why do you think the Grafinn is more shady than Otto?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
[cross-posted with both of John The Less' posts]
Two out of three of the following unbearable statements are true:
Either:
1. Otto is being entirely too brilliant at playing on my marshmallow heart strings,
and/or:
2. Codine is so absolutely smooth that I am never ever ever going to catch him and anytime Clan Gwai is Mafia they can count on a free pass from Clan A. Road,
and/or:
3. Eliabulon is back twisting the truth in subtle and not so subtle ways.
If you're Possessed, Eliabulon, be careful about trying to make me out as Possessed in place of you because I won't roll over. I obviously will know you're lying and I will find you out for sure.
At the moment I think I find Codine most convincing as an Innocent, so I'm happy to vote for Otto. I may change my mind again tomorrow. I look forward to a discussion of all the possibilities.
Eliabulon, I have been on so many oscillations on this bus trip I'm not sure if my views from one day to the next are going to seem at all consistent. If you read the transcripts you will see that all the known Innocents (known either by death or by role claim) have on different days been completely sure of different ideas of who is Possessed: and usually have been wrong. I hadn't thought of this before as applying to myself too, but it does.
I'll try to write later about my internal gyrations through the shifts that you are finding so potentially suspicious (or are pretending to find suspicious). In brief, before I've had a chance to review my mental trajectory clearly, I think that the basic event underlying my shifts is that at some point I had to face up to the fact that I really could barely trust any being on board, regardless of what they said.
[ 15. April 2014, 23:46: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Something I've been meaning to say, and keep forgetting to post it. I realized this sometime within the last Fake Life week:
As soon as the Possessed spotted Lady Celandine as the Detective on Day Two and earmarked her for murder on Night Two, Reppik Tew's unreadable nature was almost (*) completely irrelevant. In particular, he was at that point no more valuable than either of the other two Possessed. So whether he was sacrificed willingly or unwillingly, there's no mystery or problem in the Unreadable Possessed being the sacrifice.
(*) "almost" because there was a slim chance the doctor would have chosen Lady Celandine to protect that night.
[ 16. April 2014, 00:02: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
The more I think about it, the more spectacularly unimpressed I am with the Grafinnn's suspicion of Ios.
I see three possibilities:
Otto and Eliabulon. This is my current favorite. The Grafinn's latest statements would fit this; if she's guilty then painting Ios and Codine as guilty would be a wonderful move.
Otto and Codine I don't have any real analysis to offer here. I can find stuff on Otto, but I can't really find stuff on Codine at the moment.
Codine and Eliabulon Another match made in heaven, I think. Well, except that Codine would play more of a lone ranger game, I think, while Eliabulon is more of a team victory kind of broad. Still, two smooth operators who can use a vague suspicion of each other as cover? Perfection.
I'm inclined to go after Otto first, but depending on Ios' reasoning I will definitely reconsider.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
The FBC is losing its feathers over all of this. Because Otto thinks Ios is innocent, and knows he is innocent, the choices are obvious. The process of elimination leads only to two others. If Ios is possessed then we are in so much trouble, so much trouble.
Otto thinks the evidence base is scant for all. Otto does have a flamboyant yet histrionic personality, which comes from being somewhat disordered in body, and being from Planet 11. It's kind of what they do there.
The transcripts are relatively opaque to sophisticated discernment says Otto. He doesn't trust his feelings, he trusts a process of elimination. Now, Ios is playing a very wicked game, then we are doomed. But Otto doesn't think that is so. Otto also observes that if he is voted off, and then you will see as he has stated and cried and danced and eaten and dranken all about, that he is innocent and not possessed, and he wants Good to Triumph. With a very big oomph.
Otto has used the Hophtrig screwdriver to remove a panel, and inside, he has found marshmallows. He is not looking for sticks and something to light a fire with. We're having toasted marshmallows tonight!
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Twang goes another one of Ios' marshmallow heartstrings.
I'm hoping to eventually be able to put up a long reasoned post looking at various points and counterpoints. Before that, for a while now I'll be posting random thoughts as they bubble up.
I have been wondering who Reppik Tew meant in his ghostly comment. (Fictitious A. is too tired to assist by going to look up the reference for me, but if someone needs a link, say so and A. thinks she'll be able to hunt on Fake Tomorrow.). As punishment for my sin in trying to find a clue where no clue was supposed to be given (i.e., the utterances of a ghost), I lit upon Hophtrig and Otto, and led the lynching of Innocent Hophtrig. I've said the following before, but for Eliabulon's sake I'll repeat it: once my hypothetical Possessed combination of Hophtrig and Otto fell apart, I had no reason any more to suspect Otto any more or less than I had before ghostly Reppik posted.
Having been punished for sin is apparently no deterrent for Ios, who continues to think about the Ghostly Reppik comment and now thinks Eliabulon, if Possessed, is the Being producing the longest and most frequent posts of our remaining suspects, sufficient to produce the ghostly hostly ire in Ghost Reppik's post. But this is probably trying to read tea leaves where they shouldn't be or can't be read.
(Fictitious A. breaks in to implore: Ghosts, pleeeeeeease be careful in what you say.)
[ 16. April 2014, 00:44: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
I have been wondering who Reppik Tew meant in his ghostly comment. (Fictitious A. is too tired to assist by going to look up the reference for me, but if someone needs a link, say so and A. thinks she'll be able to hunt on Fake Tomorrow.). As punishment for my sin in trying to find a clue where no clue was supposed to be given (i.e., the utterances of a ghost), I lit upon Hophtrig and Otto, and led the lynching of Innocent Hophtrig. I've said the following before, but for Eliabulon's sake I'll repeat it: once my hypothetical Possessed combination of Hophtrig and Otto fell apart, I had no reason any more to suspect Otto any more or less than I had before ghostly Reppik posted.
What??? Are you serious?
(By the way, this is the comment to which she refers.)
I just read it as "I, who cannot contribute in any way, wish you'd get on with something, anything."
Don't go back and read Joostein's ghostly posts, either... there's nothing there.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Want to know a fun fact?
We get to do this all over again tomorrow!
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
[foiled once again in my attempts for a double-post. This was cross-posted with John's two posts.]
Eliabulon, both you and Codine have made comments which at the time made me think each of you must be Innocent. But now I know that at least one of you is Possessed, since there are only three suspects left: Eliabulon, Codine, Otto. So I cannot trust even statements that seem to me to be oh-so-obviously Innocent.
Sometime while Ios was riding shotgun with fictitious A. on two successive weekend seven hundred mile round trips, during and immediately after the Ja'ayem insanity, I (Ios) spent a long time wondering what Ja'ayem was up to by nominating me, and when we discovered he was the Sympathiser, what it all might mean. To get at that, I spent an even longer time thinking about what a criminal member of Clan A. Road might do. That's when I came up with the Second Partridge theory.
I think it was Eliabulon's casual dismissal of Second Partridge that really got me thinking about whether she might be Possessed. I've said several times that it has felt really wierd to disagree with Eliabulon. Either Eliabulon is Possessed and making mistakes by shading the truth, or Eliabulon is Innocent and the student (fictitious A.) has exceeded her teacher (fictitious Eliab) in terms of deviousness. Or maybe Clan Eliab has never been as devious as Clan A. Road? I made a comment earlier about how, if Clan Eliab members are really that unsuspicious on a regular basis, then deceiving Clan Eliab would be like taking candy from a baby.
Then I got pissed when Eliabulon, after the lynching of Innocent Choey, appeared to be astonished and forced into considering that maybe Ja'ayem had double-bluffed us and Choey and Hophtrig might both be Innocent -- and Eliabulon gave no trace of realizing that someone (und zat iz me) had suggested that previously.
Zapaterietxe says he's convinced of the Innocence of Beings who answer his questions without evasions, and even more so of the Innocence of Beings who take the time to find and correct his or others' errors. I think Zapaterietxe is entirely too naive and has just revealed the perfect way for the Possessed to pull the wool over his eyes. I don't know if it was Zapaterietxe or John The Less who said they couldn't imagine the Guilty going to all that extra effort on top of constructing their own Guilty false posts. Perhaps Codine wouldn't go to that effort (although I don't necessarily believe Codine's claims that he wouldn't), but criminal members of Clan A. Road most definitely would (*). And I expect members of Clan Eliab may well be equally obsessive.
I agree with Eliabulon that all possibilities should be considered, including whether I might be Possessed. What surprises me is that the same Eliabulon who was so trusting in the apparently bizarrely clumsy Ja'ayem that she never considered Second Partridge seriously until forced into it -- that same Eliabulon is now deeply suspicious and has constructed what might be a sophisticated tissue of evidence against me. (I can't tell how strong the evidence looks; I find that on this bus trip I really can't tell how I appear to others.)
Eliabulon, if I nominate you it will be for being strangely unsuspicious of the true aims of Ja'ayem once we knew he was the Sympathizer. And also because I would rather incorrectly lynch an Innocent Eliabulon than an Innocent Otto.
You might find that last sentence uncharacteristically non-evidence-based for the members of Clan A. Road, but this bus trip has been deeply wrenching for Ios as much as the concurrently running episode of Fake Life has been for fictitious A., and both of them -- bus trip and Fake Life -- have changed Ios and A.
(*) embryonic future criminal members of Clan A. Road: "Don't tell them that! Don't tell them that! I can't believe it, she told them. What on earth (or Dimthing) are we going to use for a strategy when it's our turn to take a bus trip?" Exeunt embryonic members grumbling and muttering at their Innocent forebear Ios. One embryonic member pops back on stage briefly: "I know! We'll send fictitious A. on a FIFTEEN HUNDRED MILE round trip driving and get her to think of another strategy for us." Exit one embryonic member.
[ 16. April 2014, 01:40: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
Want to know a fun fact?
We get to do this all over again tomorrow!
Only if we mistakenly lynch an Innocent today, and no murder succeeds tonight.
If we lynch a Possessed today, then you must Protect yourself at night for the rest of the game and we have won. If this happens, then we can afford after today to just lynch Beings one by one without worrying about if they're Innocent or Possessed. Eventually the surviving Innocent(s) will find the Possessed, and they can't murder you and win that way. (I suppose we could lose if the remaining Possessed convinces the other Innocent to lynch Dr. John, but that would be utterly ridiculous. Almost as ridiculous as a game ending with a walk-off Hit By Pitch after intentionally loading the bases.)
If we lynch an Innocent today, and a murder succeeds tonight, then the Possessed will out-number the Innocent 2-1 and can simply lynch him (or her) tomorrow.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
I trust your instincts, Ios. If you want to lynch the Grafinnnnn, I'll help you. Both she and Otto are suspicious to me; I don't particularly care which we choose.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
[cross-posted. Be careful John: what will you do if you run out of n's? Fictitious A. would bring you an extra supply, but on this tiny phone keyboard she's as likely to bring you b's or m's as n's]
quote:
But ze important thing is zat I vas right about vat ze sympathiser vould do.
Remind us again what you thought the Sympathiser would do? I remember the strategy you said you expected the Sympathiser to follow, which was to falsely claim to be the Detective. We know Ja'ayem did not do that. What did he do that you were right about? (I have a guess about what you'll say, but I don't want to make any assumptions.)
[ 16. April 2014, 02:08: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
What will you do if you run out of n's?
Oh, no worries. I have n+1.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
My head has just self-referentially exploded. ![[Overused]](graemlins/notworthy.gif)
[ 16. April 2014, 02:16: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Sorry, Eliabulon, I may have misrepresented you: you might not have said the fake detective claim was what you expected the Sympathiser to follow, but rather that it would be a good strategy, or something like that.
That's a minor point though. The major question still stands: to remind me what it was you were right about what the Sympathiser would do?
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
At the moment you have two nominations:
Otto and No lynching. You have less than twelve hours to give them company on the list.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Ios, I think I would like to lynch Eliabulon today. You seem more convinced of her guilt than Otto's, and as I ponder I think I am as well. I've already nominated someone, though, so if you want to do that you or Codine or Otto will have to do it, and do it fairly soon. We've only got five or six hours, I think.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
For myself, I think Otto's guiltier, so I'm not nominating Eliabulon.
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
(By the way, this is the comment to which she refers.)
I just read it as "I, who cannot contribute in any way, wish you'd get on with something, anything."
given that Dafyd has already said that dead people are not allowed to tell tales or drop hints (or by extension for Mafia- mislead) then that is exactly how my comment should be taken
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ios has reached a point where she can't tell what's true or not, apart from trusting that John is in fact the Innocent Doctor.
At this point, every statement by the Three Suspects seems like it could mean what it says on the tin, or it could be a fib and really mean the polar opposite. Ios is convinced though that she doesn't want to drown another kitten today, and if that kitten turns out to be a wickedly and brilliantly manipulative Possessed genius who has been toasting Ios' every last marshmallow heartstring over a hot fire, well,
is all she can say. And if that genius is in Possessed partnership with the enigmatic servant of an absent master so that lynching the Grafinnnnn is wronger than a wrong thing is wrong, well then
.
Ios raises the inscribed Joostein memorial dagger and points it at the Grafinnnnnn. (The drama of this move is reduced to almost nothing because the Grafinnnnnnn is absorbed in the archives and barely notices what is going on.)
I nominate the Grafinn, Ekaterina Eliabulon.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Wet Kipper:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
(By the way, this is the comment to which she refers.)
I just read it as "I, who cannot contribute in any way, wish you'd get on with something, anything."
given that Dafyd has already said that dead people are not allowed to tell tales or drop hints (or by extension for Mafia- mislead) then that is exactly how my comment should be taken
Thanks for clarifying, Ghostly Hostly Tew. I find it hard to keep from looking for inadvertant clues even where none were intended. I have been amply punished in angst for indulging in this bad habit.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Because Otto is innocent and not going to vote for myself and because Codine and the Grafinn are the two guilties, Otto votes for the Grafinn, Ekaterina Eliabulon. Either would have been acceptable nominations.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Otto, dear sweet Otto playing upon a marshmallow violin, I don't think voting is open yet -- not for another 3 hours and 50 minutes (8 p.m. UK time). Please come vote again once voting opens.
I might be off by an hour one way or the other -- I'm feeling quite uncoordinated by cross-pond differences in daylight savings time.
[ 16. April 2014, 15:13: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Time for a new song, I think.
Three suspects left,
three suspects left.
They all ran after Ios and John,
Who cut off their tail with a nomination.
Three suspects left,
three suspects left.
Ios can never remember if it's supposed to be "tail" or "tails" in this grammatical situation, and it's not helped by the fact that different languages treat this differently. Fictional A. shrugs and says she can't remember either, and besides which, A. is busy trying to figure out how to open a file which crashes the program every time right after she opens it, and how to restart a disabled Oracle apply queue. Oracle, says Ios, I could use one of those. Sorry, says A., it's not the helpful kind of Oracle.
[ 16. April 2014, 16:22: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
Voting is not open yet. Votes cast before the election opens will not be counted.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
The editor-nerd fictional persona of Codine's would say "tails."
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Sorry, Eliabulon, I may have misrepresented you: you might not have said the fake detective claim was what you expected the Sympathiser to follow, but rather that it would be a good strategy, or something like that.
That's a minor point though. The major question still stands: to remind me what it was you were right about what the Sympathiser would do?
I think zat you are misunderstanding me, rather zan misrepresenting.
Zere are two lines of reasoning zat are separate.
Ze first is zis: before I had formed a view of anyvun, I asked myself vat ze sympathiser might do - vat I vould do if I vere ze sympathiser. Und ze answer vas to be careless of my own life for ze sake of sowing confusion und distraction. Claiming to be ze detective vould have been such a strategy. I vas vatch for ze sympathiser to act in zat vay. But zey did not. So, vile I think I vas right to anticipate such a strategy, in fact ze sympathiser did not use it.
Ze second line of reasoning - und qvite distinct from ze first, related to ze Reppik vote. I vas not certain zat ze killers vould vote to save Reppik, because he vas accused on more convincing grounds zan anything else ve had at ze time, und to commit to his defence vould have been a risk for ze killer. But I vas reasonably sure zat ze sympathiser vould take zat risk, particularly if zere vere ozer passengers voting to save Reppik, because essentially, zat is vat ze sympathiser vas for. Und zat vas vat ze sympathiser did, und I vas right.
So no, Ja'ayem did not act as I vould have expected ze sympathiser to act in generally, but all ze same, ve did find ze sympathiser vere I said he vould be. Zat, I think, shows zat I vas really trying to find ze guilty.
To believe ozervise (und remember zat ze killers did not know who ze sympathiser vas) you have to say zat EITHER for some reason I thought ze sympathiser vould have voted to evict Reppik, OR zat I knew Ja'ayem vas ze sympathiser und vas misleading us. Und neither is plausible. Zere is no reason vy a killer vould expect ze sympathiser to vote against ze killers' interests, because voting to support ze killers is vat ze sympathiser is zere to do, und zere is nothing in Ja'ayem's vords zat looks remotely like a clue to his identity (until his confession).
So I am not saying "I spotted zat Ja'ayem vas ze sympathiser". I did not. I am saying zat "I failed to spot ze sympathiser, but I vorked out zat ze sympathiser vas vun of zose who voted to save Reppik, vorked hard to evict zem, und picked ze right vun". Vich is a different claim. Und it is evidence zat I am thinking on ze side of ze innocent.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
Votes are now open.
Nominated are:
Otto von Biggleswarpski (No Prophet) nominated by John the Less.
Grafinn Ekaterina Eliabulon (Eliab) nominated by Ios.
No Lynching.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
Zis, I think, is ze heart of Ios's answer to my request zat she state ze evidence against me:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
I think it was Eliabulon's casual dismissal of Second Partridge that really got me thinking about whether she might be Possessed. I've said several times that it has felt really wierd to disagree with Eliabulon.
[…]
Then I got pissed when Eliabulon, after the lynching of Innocent Choey, appeared to be astonished and forced into considering that maybe Ja'ayem had double-bluffed us and Choey and Hophtrig might both be Innocent -- and Eliabulon gave no trace of realizing that someone (und zat iz me) had suggested that previously.
But zat is wrong!
I did not dismiss ze theory casually. I considered it. I thought zat zere vas a point ven Ja'ayem vas trying to save himself, und a point ven he vas trying to mislead. I vas trying to identify exactly ven ze change in emphasis happened, so ve could deduce vat vas true und vat vas misleading (remembering, of course, zat ze double-bluff is also a vay of misleading).
Vith hindsight, I think I vas wrong about ven zat point came. I thought zat Ja'ayem vas trying to shield vun of Choey or Hophtrig, because arguing for Choey's eviction particularly vould have been so easy for him, but instead I tried from ze start to fix guilt elsevere. I put zat attempt in ze “trying to save own life” phase, und thought Choey vas ze most plausible next choice.
Und, it is vorth mentioning, zat my remark zat so irritated Ios because I did not acknowledge her suspicion zat Ja'ayem had given up hope sooner zan I had thought, came after she had voted to evict Choey (along vith most of us) und before she not only nominated Hophtrig, but cast ze vote vich made it impossible to evict Otto, und effectively doomed him.
So to me Ios's “I told you so” sounds very hollow. If she vas so convinced zat Ja'ayem had double-bluffed us into suspecting Choey und Hophtrig, vy did she try so hard to kill Hophtrig? At zat point, I vas beginning to reconsider because my instinct vas zat Hophtrig vas innocent. Even though Ios says she vas irritated zat I came to zat thought late, vithout acknowledging her, she still vanted Hophtrig dead after zis.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
My last thought before ze vote:
I think ze most significant thing in ze discussion today is John's statement zat he vould trust Ios to be innocent, und stake his life on zat. Zis statement, vether it is true or false, vill have an effect on ze killers.
Let me explain vat I mean before ve vote...
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
... suppose John is right.
Ios is innocent. Ze killers know who zey are, zey know how critical zis vote is, und zey know zat zere is vun ozer innocent who John might be persvaded to suspect. If he does for zat vun, zey vote vith him, und zey vin today, und, unless he stops ze next murder, vin completely tonight.
Everything depends on zis. Zey vill, zey must, make sure ze ozer innocent is nominated und vill both vork hard to evict her...
[ 16. April 2014, 22:22: Message edited by: Eliab ]
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
...now suppose John is wrong.
Ze killers, if not exactly home free, now have a good chance zat suspicion vill light on vun of ze two innocents, und zey do not particularly care vich. As long as vun of ze two dies, zey are laughing. Ze vill not see a concerted push by two desperate killers to incriminate ze vun innocent left. Ve vill see comments like:
quote:
Originally posted by no prophet:
Otto believes Grafinn and Codine are the guilties. He also fears the train is ready to run him off the bus. Otto reasons emotionally often, accompanied by his friend the FBC who is his moral support.
Und, of course, zat is vat has happened. In ze nomination phase, Codine seemed to favour lynching Otto, I vas beginning to be suspicious of Ios, und Otto vas suspicious of Codine und me (und is now focussed on me, as Codine is not nominated). He has accepted whole-heartedly John's view zat Ios is innocent. I do not think it is in his interests to challenge it.
I note John's comment zat he is not convinced by my suspicion of Ios. I do not think zere is much to go on, but zen, vith Ios, zere vould not be. She does not make foolish mistakes. I think ze evidence is zat no vun (or, rather, no two) has acted in ze vay zat ze killers must act if John is right zat Ios is innocent, but somevun has acted in ze vay zey vould if she vere guilty.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
Und after all of zat, obviously I must vote for Otto, since he is at least two thirds likely to be guilty, vereas I know zat it vould be a mistake to evict me.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
[cross-posted with the last two of Eliabulon]
I allowed myself to forget Second Partridge, and let myself get convinced Ja'ayem was First Partridge because of how blissfully simple the archives are if you read them with the idea that Hophtrig and Otto are both Possessed. Try it. It makes all the big analysts to be truth-tellers who are honestly trying to figure this out. It makes butter-wouldn't-melt-in-her-mouth Codine to be Innocent, instead of possibly being a supremely artful and deceptive Possessed Being. It means I don't have to consider whether Genius Eliabulon is running a very complex Possessed multiple-bluff deception.
There are two flaws in the theory of Hophtrig and Otto as the two Possessed which I shoved under the rug and dismissed instead of airing in public and considering thoughtfully. One was that if Otto is Possessed, it means Ja'ayem in the Reppik Tew vote voted against a Possessed Being (Otto) instead of against the more obvious choice of Innocent Hophtrig. The other is that as First Partridge, Ja'ayem was really clumsy and telegraphed in no uncertain terms who he was protecting. And that didn't really fit, because I mostly thought that Ja'ayem was smarter than that, after reading the posts of his Fake Life friend Jay-Emm on the Caribbean Reparations thread.
I truly wasn't sure whether Ja'ayem was First Partridge or Second Partridge though. I was having a really hard time coming up with a pair whose votes and posts made sense as the two Possessed. Hophtrig and Otto was the first time I found a pair that seemed to fit the vast majority of the facts as we knew them.
More to come...
[ 16. April 2014, 22:46: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
I allowed myself to forget Second Partridge, and let myself get convinced Ja'ayem was First Partridge because of how blissfully simple the archives are if you read them with the idea that Hophtrig and Otto are both Possessed.
But if you had forgotten it, vy do you claim to have been annoyed at me for forgetting zat you had suggested it?
Und, yes, Ja'ayem's vote against Otto is a point in Otto's favour (hardly a decisive vun, given how deceptive ve now know zat Ja'ayem vas being, but still a point to consider), but again, you knew zat fact ven you are claiming to have been convinced zat Hophtrig und Otto vere guilty.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Why, if both are guilty, did the Grafinn and Otto vote for each other? Why didn't Otto nominate someone else?
Ios, my brain is a bit blasted from too much Holy Week. What's your take?
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
I suppose it is vorth asking vy it vas Hophtrig zat you vent for, instead of Otto?
If you are guilty, I think zat it follows zat Otto is as vell*, or you vould be sitting back und vatching us incriminate vun anozer. So I vill say frankly zat I am asking mostly to look for flaws in your reasoning zat vould support zis**.
But if you are innocent, ze reasons you had to suspect Otto before are important. So zey are vorth revisiting.
(*as far as I am concerned, since I know I am innocent. Ze possibility of you und Codine both being guilty has to be discounted today, because even if it is true, zere is nothing zat ve can do about it now. But I think it is not true, because it it vas, you vould not care about ze result now, und neither vould he).
(**you are right to say zay on vun level if ve lynch a killer today, ve can vin vatever happens next. But even so, I vould, as a matter of pride, like to get ze next vote right as vell).
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
Why, if both are guilty, did the Grafinn and Otto vote for each other? Why didn't Otto nominate someone else?
Ve cannot, I think, both be guilty for exactly zat reason. Vun of us could und vould have added an innocent nomination to ze pool. (Zat is to say, I know for certain ve are not both guilty, since I am not, but zat is ze reason vy I think you can be almost as sure zat ve are not).
Zis is vy getting zis vote right is so important.
I have thought about vether it could possibly be in ze killers interests to try to hang ze vote. I do not think it is - zey do not vant votes on days vith an even number of survivors at zis stage, because ze combination of a known, unkillable, innocent und a guaranteed innocent casting vote means zey lose tie-breaks on ze final day. So I think ve can be sure zat zere is a right answer to ze vote today.
Obviously I vill assert zat it is to evict Otto, und he vill assert zat it is to get rid of me. I think I have said enough zat zere is more zan assertion on my side, but if you still do not know who to trust, zen look back at ze analysis of Zapaterietxe before his murder. Zapaterietxe vas not right about everything he said, but he vas ze vun who spotted Reppik's guilt first, und vas right about zat, und he vas right to think zat I vas likely to be innocent.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
Why, if both are guilty, did the Grafinn and Otto vote for each other? Why didn't Otto nominate someone else?
Ios, my brain is a bit blasted from too much Holy Week. What's your take?
Otto stated above that he would not nominate. Otto thought this would be seen a mere retaliation for being nominated. He thought there was no purpose in nominating someone if the vote might be split to vote off a guilty. Otto would have voted for either Eliabulon or Codine, both of whom are guilty.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto votes for Grafinn Ekaterina Eliabulon, and if this is wrong, then oh my lord! Ios has been very devious. But Otto does not see this, and continues with his understanding of Codine as the other guilty.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
There was a reason I nominated Otto. I nominated him because both Zapateriexte and I thought he was guilty as a kid with his hand in the cookie jar.
I vote for Otto von Bigglesworth.
I hate to go back on what I told you, Ios, but I feel I have to. I'd rather be outsmarted by a known high roller than by Otto.
And Eliabulon, I still think Ios is innocent.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Eliabulon, if I'm Possessed, and Otto is Innocent, then I would have just let Otto be lynched. But I nominated someone, so I'm probably not Possessed. (Unless I've demonically arranged it so two Innocents are up for lynching today. *I* know that's not true, because *I* know I'm Innocent. But I want to think a bit about that, to see if that strategy might have made sense for a hypothetically Possessed Ios. Hmmm.)
If I'm Possessed, and Otto is also Possessed, then that means Codine and Eliabulon are Innocent. And if I were Possessed, I would far rather try to frame Codine who says little than Eliabulon who says much. I fear your argumentative powers greatly, Eliabulon, and don't think I would want to take them on if I could avoid it. (Wait, this doesn't make sense, why didn't even an Innocent Ios nominate Codine instead of Eliabulon? Frigging hell, now I've confused even myself.)
Gaaaah. I may have to think about this overnight. I'm trying to digest what Eliabulon has said and clearly I haven't done that thoroughly yet.
Frig friggety frig frig frig.
Eliabulon, I think this is true: either you're Possessed and twisting the truth, or you're Innocent and you and I turn out to think really differently from each other. (That sentence is made from the vantage point of knowing I'm Innocent. I don't know what I'd have come to think about you if I were Possessed. Probably been terrified of your reasoning and tried to murder you early on, as earlier, Possessed, members of Clan A. Road have done.). I really honestly thought Hophtrig's strategy could be good, and I really honestly thought Codine's omission of John was suspicious, and I really honestly was satisfied (at the time) by Codine's explanation.
And I don't believe that the Sympathizer's best role is to provide an extra vote in the endgame, and I don't particularly think Ja'ayem thought so either. If he said so, don't you think there's a chance he was deliberately deceiving us? (Oh wait, the new naive Eliabulon would never think that. Are you *really* that unsuspicious? If you're Innocent and that's what you truly believe, this is a very strange new insight both into your nature and my nature.)
I think a better aim for the Sympathizer is to provide cover and alibis for the Possessed. I've posted recently pointing to a post of Ja'ayem's in which he was musing about the elements of Second Partridge. (Oh drat -- if I think he really meant it when he mused about Second Partridge, I should probably equally think he really meant it when he mused about Sympathizer Survives -- ok, so maybe he did start out to play Sympathizer Survives, but what I'm trying to get at is that he was thinking about Second Partridge before the voting phase of the Reppik Tew vote.
Speaking of Ja'ayem and the Reppik Tew vote, Eliabulon, what do you make of Ja'ayem voting second, and voting against Otto? If Otto's Possessed, why do you think Ja'ayem didn't vote against Hophtrig?
That's as much as I have to decant right now. I need to spend some time rethinking what I thought I thought when I started to write my first toe paragraphs.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
And it all comes down to the wire. If we can just get this vote right, we've won the game, and the killers can't win. Let's do this and win the game. So why do I think Otto is guilty? Reasons:
I don't know if you should trust my vote since you can't trust me, but Zapa was a known innocent, and his reasons are thusly reliable.
Otto has very little to say. Is this because he is afraid of giving himself away? I think so.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Ha, forgot to include my vote. Obviously, I vote for Otto.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
My previous was cross-posted with the world (and this one probably is too; I started it right after my previous post but then got called away).. I think my vote is now forced, by John's vote, but I want to think about what all these recent developments might possibly mean, and if there's any way out with more certainty than betting that Otto is Possessed.
[oh look, not only is this a crosspost, but now my vote is irrelevant. I will vote, but I want to think about things first.]
[ 17. April 2014, 01:03: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Eliabulon, I've cross-posted with all your recent posts. I may be guilty of beng an extremely fuzzy and waffley thinker, and doing poorly at retrospectively explaining my vacillations.
I'm taking fictitious A. to the grocery store, and then I'm going to help her clean up her office preparatory to an office move (minor reorganization at her fictitious place of work), and then she wants me to watch the rest of the Yankees-Cubs game with her, and then she'll go to bed (or rather, being fictitious, she'll pretend to go to bed) and I, Ios, will have a chance to try to answer your questions in a more organized manner.
Although Otto's eviction is now assured, I would like to ask that I be allowed to torture myself some more trying to figure out what all this means, and cast my vote, before any role-reveals are made. Just because I adore puzzles.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
On the face of this, John, it means that Codine and Eliabulon are Possessed and Otto is Innocent. There are stranger explanations available for the vote so far, but that seems to me to be the most likely explanation.
Codine, Zapaterietxe has been proved wrong 3 out of 4 times in his picks he was so certain of, so the fact that known Innocent Zapaterietxe was most recently convinced Otto was Possessed, or at least leaning that way, and also convinced that Eliabulon was Innocent, meant nothing to me as we went into the nominations today. And looking at the simple explanation for the votes so far, I am thinking I was right to not give any weight to what Zapaterietxe thought.
John, I wish you had waited longer to vote so we could have talked more about it, and also so we could have seen how all three of Otto, Eliabulon, and Codine would vote. But perhaps you were really convinced we should evict Otto, so you had to vote fast to force the vote: that is, to pre-empt any inclination I might have had to vote quickly and force a vote for Eliabulon.
Eliabulon, I think the succinct answer to your questions is that I have learned that I don't reason well or consistently in the face of uncertainty. Some quick highlights (this is from what I recall you asking):
I nominated Hophtrig, not Otto, because many others had suspected Hophtrig, so I thought there must be something to all those suspicions. If I had considered it fully myself I'm not sure I would have seen much difference between them. Having become convinced of Hophtrig and Otto -- really, it's alarming how beautifully simple the transcripts become with that theory -- then Second Partridge wasn't true -- except for the one little gap that Ja'ayem as First Partridge meant a very clumsy Ja'ayem, which didn't really fit. But I allowed myself to ignore that.
Second Partridge, as with a great many other of my ideas, floated up and down in terms of how much I considered it at any time. I was never sure though. And one reason why I wasn't sure was because Eliabulon didn't agree with it. I think one permanent mark of this bus tour on Ios and her descendants is that she will be a lot less ready to trust any other Being's reasoning again. And it doesn't matter if they're Possessed (cough, Eliabulon, cough) or Innocent (cough, Zapaterietxe, cough).
John, consider that going into this vote Otto was the one staunchly saying I was Innocent, thus leaving only two candidates for Possession that he could point to while also claiming (whether truly or falsely) to be Innocent. Eliabulon and Codine were both being more reserved in stating they trusted me, leaving more candidates for Possession and more chances they could convince you to lynch an Innocent. I think the Possessed would not want to narrow the field as much as Otto was doing, now that we are down to absolute crunch time. (Although, you can never rule out a very bold bluff.).
Otto, bring the marshmallows over here. I think there's enough for us two to have a feast. The other three can occupy themselves looking for the missing screws for the back panel.
With confidence (barring yet another outbreak of bus tour insanity), I vote my meaningless protest vote: the Grafinn, Ekaterina Eliabulon.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto says:
I am innocent, always have been, always will be, whether in sorrow or in joy. So is the FBC. You have been outsmarted by evil. Otto hands each of you a feather from the Feather Boa Constrictor, and their rainbow iridescence glints in the dim light, and the feathers begin to sing, playing music among their strands:
"Yes, Otto is innocent.
Shortly to be a dead innocent.
This foul deed shall smell above Dimthing
With carrion entities,
groaning for burial."
Otto cries silently for a while as the strains of feather song dissipate, and says, "The evil that bus passengers do lives after them; the good is oft interred with their bones." Otto hopes that his innocent bones release his innocence and goodness, but suspects this will not happen, and evil shall . Otto also has a weakness for sardines, and would like a last meal of them, with marmalade of course, but alas, there is no marmalade, and no sardines. "So long and no thanks for all of the fish", he says.
On Otto's lips are the names of the guilty, and in his heart is a song, and in his 3 legs a dance. he puts the flute to his ear, and asks that at his moment of death, his innocent death, that other passengers do him the honour of the Planet 11 Death Ritual, which involves staring into his eyes as they lose their light and loudly bellowing at the sky to warn the dead and God (who will already know), that his soul is about to arrive. Be careful of the FBC. The FBC will burst into flames as Otto dies. No more fabulousity. Ios may wish to roast marshmallows in the embers. May be Hoppy and Otto will share a cloud and can make music together. The Happy Hoppy Cloud.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
X-posted the last with dear Ios.
"Yes, let us roast marshmallows, and please don't fall asleep while my magenta tears fall like beads of sunlight on the fire. Let us sing and be merry because in the morrow, I die and the FBC burns."
"I will see Hoppy, and we shall party for an eternity in the great Hearafter and Hearbefore where time has no meaning and waffles and raisins grow everywhere. Where rocking horse people eat marshmallow pies."
Otto cheers and breaks into a happier song:
"The time to hesitate is through
It's time to burn the 'mallow fire
Try now we can roast a few
upon the Otto funeral pyre
Come on baby, light my fire..."
[ 17. April 2014, 02:17: Message edited by: no prophet ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Otto, I'm sorry, I'm all out of turquoise handkerchiefs. What a strange, strange trip this has been.
John, here's crossing my fingers that you can prevent a murder tonight.
Joostein, you were right, but it was only until well into this bus trip that the Grafinn's thinking seemed to have become overloaded with too many fuzzy oversights and I came to wonder if it was because she was Possessed. I'm still not sure I would spot that fuzziness in the early posts, before we lynched you.
Here's another wierd thing in the Grafinn's thinking: she has been crowing about being right in predicting the Sympathiser would not have voted for Possessed Reppik. But as the candidates narrowed, she has resolutely refused to take the next step and wonder whether Ja'ayem's vote for Otto might say anything about whether Otto was Innocent (obvious vote by Ja'ayem) or Possessed (bluff vote by Ja'ayem). Given Naive Eliabulon's claimed naive beliefs about Ja'ayem, she should probably support Otto being Innocent. But Possessed Eliabulon wouldn't want to take that step, and so has just not said anything about it at all.
Fictitious A. is happy because the Yankees beat the Cubs, in fact shut them out in both games of a double header. She snuggles up next to the FBC and tries to tickle Ios and Otto with some of the feathers that the anxious FBC has shed, to make them smile, but Ios and Otto are somberly eating marshmallows.
I'm sorry Otto. I wonder if I could have said something different to convince John. I came to seriously suspect Eliabulon too late.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
I am sorry, Ios.
I voted early because Barefoot Friar has three services tomorrow, two Friday, one Saturday, and three Sunday -- with all the preparation that goes along with that. I don't know that I'll be able to say anything else until in the morning, Dimthing time.
I voted for Otto because I suspect him. I'm not giving up my hope for his guilt until I hear Dafyd say otherwise, but it is slipping.
Well, what can I say. I lasted this long, maybe I can keep it together another day.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Blessings for the Barefoot Friar in his services. I hope we can look on the Dimthing morning together. If not, let me say you have borne an enormous load in this game very well, and please don't beat yourself up for any murders that got through on your watch.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
I voted for Otto because I suspect him. I'm not giving up my hope for his guilt until I hear Dafyd say otherwise, but it is slipping.
Must the earth tremble? Must the curtain be torn?
Blessed are those who have not seen and yet have believed.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Eliabulon has been very wicked.
Oh, Eliabulon was so very very puzzled by the timing of Reppik's false semi-role-claim, finally piecing together that it only made sense as an attempt to protect a Possessed Otto. Who came up with that strategy, Eliabulon? You? Reppik? Codine?
Who said that she didn't think the Possessed would have an "I don't care if I'm suspected" attitude (when speaking of Hophtrig) and then claimed that she herself did not care if she was suspected? Oh, surprise! It was you.
Who told all of us poor fools on board exactly what she was doing: the Possessed plant hints, and only afterwards do you see what they have been doing? Yes, Eliabulon told us all what to look out for, and almost all of us missed it utterly.
Even when I pieced together the above ideas, during the last Dimthing night, I didn't know what to think. Was Eliabulon Possessed or Innocent? Those incidents could be explained either way.
The group of three/group of four tag team with Ja'ayem was well executed. I suspect that sometime during that three/four debate, if not before, Eliabulon spotted Ja'ayem as the Sympathiser. I was suspicious of the Naive Eliabulon I kept encountering, but it's been a long time since Clan A.Road has been on a bus tour, and I couldn't rule out the possibility that Clan Eliab really were less devious than Clan A. Road. Ha. Ha ha ha. Clan Eliab is as devious as they come.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
I vas about to say zat ze only people who vould know for sure vether Otto is innocent are ze killers und Otto himself. I vas zerefore very suspicious of your sudden apparent certainty zat he is innocent und I am guilty ven it is too late to change ze result.
But on reflection, if you are innocent zen I think you can rule out ze possibility of Otto und I both being guilty from ze nominations, und ze possibility of Codine und Otto both being guilty from Codine’s vote for Otto. Either vould mean effective suicide for ze Possessed. So if you are innocent, you vould know at zis point, before Otto’s role is revealed, zat ze guilty are Codine und I. Nothing else vould make sense.
But of course, I know zat I am innocent, so if I vould have to be guilty if you are innocent, it must follow zat you are not innocent. Ze only guilty pairs zen are Otto/Ios und Codine/Ios. Ve find out soon if Otto is guilty.
I am hoping zat your latest reasoning is a preparation for a spectacular und desperate attempt to survive even if Otto is guilty. As you have shown, mathematically, you should be dead at zat point, but I confess zat I vould be disappointed if you did not fight it to ze end. I hope zat zis is vat you are doing.
I fear, however, zat you und Codine succeeded in getting ze two unknown innocents nominated today, und it vill all come down to John’s ability to stop tonight’s murder. Fortunately, he has a good record at zis.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Clan Eliab is as devious as they come.
Have ve ever denied zis?
Ze quota of average deviousness per passenger has been steadily increasing on zis bus ever since ve lost Crimson, und vill, I think, be close to maximum ven ve say goodbye to Otto. Everyvun left is devious. If he is indeed innocent, ve vill have two supremely devious killers, und two eqvally devious innocents. Deviousness as a character trait can have at best a random correlation to guilt.
[ 17. April 2014, 09:40: Message edited by: Eliab ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Eliabulon, either you are very wicked or this bus tour is even more batshit crazy than it's been so far.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
She's working me, trying to get me to lynch the one person I trust most.
I'm not stupid, though.
I live and die with Ios. That. Is. That.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
Zen ve must hope zat Otto is guilty.
Vould zat not convince you zat Ios is also guilty? Ze possibility of a guilty pairing of Codine und Otto (or of Otto und I) at zis point is fanciful.
Zat means zat I know now zat Ios must be guilty. If Otto is guilty, she is ze only plausible ozer suspect. If he is innocent, zen I know (though I accept zat you do not) zat only Ios und Codine vill be left, so zey must both be Possessed.
It is important zat I make zis point, since if Otto is not guilty* all now depends on you: not only on who you try to lynch, but on who you try to save. Our lives vill depend on you making zese decisions vith ze best information ve can give you.
*If he is, ve have vun, as Ios has already said. You guard yourself, somevun is murdered, you vote somevun else out, und even if you are ven wrong, you are zen vun against vun. Ze last act of ze last murderer victim vill be to speak from beyond ze grave und vote out ze last killer. At zat point, it does not matter who ze killer is - ve are playing for pride, but ze result is certain.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
All the votes are in. Do people want to wait twenty four hours to find out whether another possessed person has been lynched, or shall I announce this evening?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
[cross-posted with The Absolute Dafyd]
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
She's working me, trying to get me to lynch the one person I trust most.
I just realized that, and was coming here to say so.
Eliabulon has two aims in fact: one, to widen the pool of who you might protect tonight to reduce the chance of you foiling tonight's murder. And two, if you do foil tonight's murder, to affect who you vote to lynch tomorrow.
I've been thinking of several batshit crazy possibilities that might conceivably be going on instead of the obvious sane conclusion about what just happened today. So no matter what the Possessed have up their sleeve, I am going to be prepared.
[ 17. April 2014, 13:36: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
All the votes are in. Do people want to wait twenty four hours to find out whether another possessed person has been lynched, or shall I announce this evening?
I'm thinking John The Less has the most constrained schedule, so I defer to his wishes.
Although I am usually quite impatient, this time around I'm quite amused watching what Eliabulon comes up with. So I'm happy with whatever decision is made for the timing of The Official Otto Role Reveal.
Hmmm, do I bet on Sane or Batshit Crazy for the Role Reveal? I think I'll bet on Sane, but I won't be surprised by Batshit Crazy.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
All the votes are in. Do people want to wait twenty four hours to find out whether another possessed person has been lynched, or shall I announce this evening?
[OOC]
I'm always going to want to know more rather than less. My vote is for an announcement ASAP please.
Although we have already established a precedent for the long gallows speech, so if Otto has anything else to say, in the interests of fairness he should be allowed to say it.
[/OOC]
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Eliabulon has two aims in fact: one, to widen the pool of who you might protect tonight
If by "viden" you mean "extend beyond somevun whom I am now sure* is guilty", zen yes, you are right.
(*Ze batshit crazy possibilities being excluded).
If you are guilty, zen of course I vant ze killers to think zat zere is at least a possibility zat ze innocent (myself, or myself und vun ozer, but zen it does not matter so much) might be guarded.
I emphatically do not vant John to say who might be protected tonight. I do not vant ze killers to have any clues at all. But certainly I do not vant to give zem a clear shot at ze innocent. Vy vould you expect me to? Zere is batshit crazy, und zen zere is an Eliabulon handing victory to zeir opponents on a plate. Ze first might happen, but ze second, never.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I agree that we don't want to give the killers any clue to who John will protect tonight.
Eliabulon, if you are Innocent, then prepare yourself for Batshit Crazy. Because I am Innocent too. If you're Innocent, I'm not sure you'll believe me until it's too late. I'm going to wait for the Official Otto Role Reveal before seeing if there's anything in what you've said that it would help the Innocents for me to try to counter.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Dafyd, I have no preference. I would ask that if you do reveal early, you tack that extra time onto the night, so that I have a chance to make a good decision.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
I'd definitely prefer an early reveal because I don't think this is going anywhere.
We all are going to logically hope that Otto is indeed guilty, and if he isn't then we are all going to logically conclude that the other two alive (besides John) are the guilty ones. Well I guess the guilty ones will illogically and loudly conclude it, but they'll be saying the same things anyway. I know that I'm way past knowing what I think anymore. So please tell us whether Otto was guilty so we at least know what we think! I, for instance, will know a lot more about whether I trust Ios and Eliabulon when I know that!
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Given what John The Less has said, I vote for an early reveal as well, with Dimthing morning arriving at the usual time Monday 8 am UK.
Since The Absolute has shown up to see what we want, could I request that perhaps The Absolute could materialize some marmalade and sardines for Otto? I know The Absolute usually leaves that kind of materialization to the angels, but we have lost our angel, and all we have left are this empty mustard pot and a remnant of hat brim.
[ 17. April 2014, 15:11: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
All the votes are in. Do people want to wait twenty four hours to find out whether another possessed person has been lynched, or shall I announce this evening?
[OOC]
I'm always going to want to know more rather than less. My vote is for an announcement ASAP please.
Although we have already established a precedent for the long gallows speech, so if Otto has anything else to say, in the interests of fairness he should be allowed to say it.
[/OOC]
The only thing Otto will say is that Eliabulon and Codine will be revealed for the floor flushing egregiously evil ghastly ghouls they are when you see that Otto has been telling the truth. The "reveal" will tell you only what Otto has been saying. There is no more to say. Just the actual fact of dying by the hands of those you love and cherish. Kill Otto now before you are subjected to further badly rephrased pop songs, poems and other bits of detritus that float around in the head of his own and fake friend's fried up brains.
So Otto sings yet again:
Near, far, wherever you are
I believe that the bus trip does go on
Once more you open the door
And throw an innocent out to their death
And their blood will flow on and on.
Love can touch us one time
And last for a bus trip
And never let go till we're gone
Otto's here, there's everything to fear
And I knows that the bus will go on
We'll stay forever this way
You are safe in my heart
And the guilties will go on and on
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
Otto sings with the FBC tapping time:
Dropkick me John The Less through the goalposts of life
End over end neither left nor the right
Straight through the heart of them evil uprights
Dropkick me Johnny through the goalposts of life
And yet again:
"Amazing Grace" used to be his favourite song
Before he was chucked out the airlock
Or where has poor Otto done gone?
And one more time
Grafinn the Light or Your Guilt is shining,
In the midst of the darkness shining,
Codine blight of your guilt shine upon us,
Lying you deny the truth the vote brings us,
Shame on you. Shame on Graf.
Shame on John for nominating innocent Otto
Shame on Co for being a ba-ad baddie
Shame on the Graf for also being an evil baddie
Otto is dead, his death is on your head
(everybody repeat the chorus!)
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
You have chosen to evict Otto. He was
...drum roll....
innocent.
Night actions please.
A quick reminder of a rule in case it should be relevant: if two persons have each received the same number of votes the casting vote goes to the last person to have been killed by the Possessed.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Damn it.
I really thought so too. Was so sure.
Looking back though, I should have seen it coming. What two people were almost completely agreed on everything but are suddenly turning on each other dramatically to avoid obvious collusion?
Who would say things like this about Eliabulon, who we all know is super-tricky and admits to being as tricky as they come:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
I agree with you infinitely, Eliabulon. These are the kinds of things that convince me you are Innocent. If you were Guilty, it would be infinitely easy for you to say nothing at all, and wait and see if John would inadvertently help you. But you said something instead.
Perhaps someone who trusts him because she knows his win condition is the same as hers.
Also, why did Ios make her most persuasive post against Eliabulon after everyone, even herself had already voted? (I'm not going to quote it here but it is the post that began quote:
Eliabulon has been very wicked
That was the post that persuaded me Eliabulon was guilty. Did she perhaps avoid giving that evidence out until it was too late? Heck, her post two hours before it was very useful too. Why was it held back?
I've been arguing all along that the guilty will be the ones who resist giving analysis because good analysis is hard to fake. Even Ios, who is both tricky and very good at bogus analysis, who could do it if anyone could had to hold back some her best talk until it was conveniently too late to convince anyone. Is that perhaps because you know you have John convinced and don't need to worry about failing a night kill?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
No, Possessed Codine, it is not because I am Possessed that you have observed all these things. It's because I've been unsure of myself, because there's been a lot to sort through which I have been spending a lot of time, thought, and posting trying to do (and you have not), and because as my knowledge gets more sure, and as I reflect on things more, I become more certain in what I want to say vs. what remains confused internal speculation on my part.
Of course my strongest statement against Eliabulon came when, because of the Otto vote, there was no longer any doubt that she and you are the two Possessed. I didn't have any doubts to distract me any more.
I note that when you recently indicated that perhaps the Possessed would find it hard to construct fake cases against the Innocent, because the Possessed know the Innocent are really Innocent, it appears that you were telling a great big giant fib. Why, look how busy you and Eliabulon have been, constructing a case against me.
Why is it, Codine, that after being so uncommunicative for the entire bus trip, you're suddenly so chatty? Could it be because you're trying to improve the odds that a murder will happen tonight, by sowing confusion for John?
I don't think I need to bother saying anything else to you and Eliabulon.
John The Less, if you want me to address anything, including any of the frantic array of so-called evidence that Codine and Eliabulon are mucking about with, just say so and I'll be happy to oblige. I've propped open the door to the HHH with the Lesley Memorial Button so you won't get locked in by accident. I'll be in the front seat, watching the stars. I think Codine and Eliabulon are hiding out in the Choey Memorial Water Closet, an apt place for manufacturing their wicked schemes.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Dimthing through day seven
Nominees, votes, and deaths both by our collective hand and beyond our control:
Dimthing day one:
15 passengers
Nominations:
John nominates No Lynching
Joostein nominates Eliabulon
Eliabulon nominates Joostein
Zapaterietxe nominates Reppik Tew
Reppik Tew nominates Lovely Lesley
Votes:
Early votes before polls open:
Lady Celandine: No Lynching
Choey: No lynching
Votes after polls open:
Zapaterietxe: Reppik Tew
Lady Celandine: No Lynching
Ja'ayem: No Lynching
Otto: Joostein
Hophtrig: No Lynching
Eliabulon: Joostein
[Lovely Lesley invalidly votes for Hophtrig]
Lovely Lesley: No Lynching
Crimson: No Lynching
John: No Lynching
Codine: No Lynching
Ios: Joostein (this was a crosspost with Codine)
Joostein: No Lynching
Reppik Tew: No Lynching
Daisy shows up just before the polls close and pleads an attack of Real Lyfe. She asks whether her vote still can make a difference (it can't), and doesn't vote.
Result:
10 - No Lynching
3 - Joostein
1 - Reppik Tew
1 - No Vote Cast
The airlock stays closed.
Dimthing night one
Police Inspector Crimson is murdered.
Dimthing day two
14 passengers
Nominations:
Hophtrig nominates Otto
John nominates Reppik Tew
Otto nominates Hophtrig
Votes:
Choey: Hophtrig
Ja'ayem: Otto
Hophtrig: Otto
Zapaterietxe: Reppik Tew
Lady Celandine: Reppik Tew
Lovely Lesley: No Lynching
John: Reppik Tew
Ios: Reppik Tew
Otto: Reppik Tew
Joostein: Otto (to gather information about the people voting after him, he says)
Eliabulon: Reppik Tew
Reppik Tew: No Lynching
Daisy: Reppik Tew (mentions an imminent upcoming lengthy appointment with Real Lyfe)
Codine: Reppik Tew (cites a timing issue involving the Real Lyfe Leave Work Challenge and the Real Lyfe Arrive Home Challenge to explain her late vote)
Results:
8 - Reppik Tew
3 - Otto
1 - Hophtrig
2 - No Lynching
Possessed Symbiont (Unreadable) Reppik Tew is wrestled out the airlock by...
... Innocent Lovely Lesley
Dimthing night two
Detective Lady Celandine is murdered.
Dimthing day three
11 passengers
Nominations:
John nominates Otto
Joostein nominates Eliabulon
Choey nominates Hophtrig
Eliabulon nominates Joostein
Joostein claims to be the doctor.
John claims to be the doctor.
All hell breaks loose.
Votes:
Eliabulon: Joostein
Ios: Joostein
Choey: Joostein
John: Joostein
Ja'ayem: Joostein
Codine: Joostein
Hophtrig: Joostein
Otto: Joostein
Zapaterietxe: Joostein
Daisy: Joostein
Joostein: Joostein
Results:
11 - Joostein
Innocent Joostein is lynched
Dimthing night three
Daisy is murdered.
Dimthing day four
9 passengers
Nominations:
Zapaterietxe nominates Choey
Choey nominates Hophtrig
John nominates Ja'ayem
Ja'ayem nominates Ios
Votes: (I may have a few out of order)
John: Ja'ayem
Ios: Ja'ayem
Codine: Ja'ayem
Zapaterietxe: Ja'ayem
Hophtrig: Ja'ayem
Choey: Ja'ayem
Otto: Ja'ayem
Ja'ayem: Ja'ayem
Eliabulon: Ja'ayem
9 - Ja'ayem
Sympathiser Ja'ayem is lynched
Dimthing night four
An attempt on John is foiled by Dr. John himself. No-one is murdered.
Dimthing day five
8 passengers
Nominations:
Eliabulon nominates Choey
Choey nominates Codine
John nominates Hophtrig
Votes:
Otto: Codine
Zapaterietxe: Choey
John: Choey
Ios: Choey
Otto: tries to change to Choey, but not allowed
Hophtrig: Choey
Choey: Codine
Codine: Choey
Eliabulon: Choey
Results:
6 - Choey
2 - Codine
Innocent Choey is lynched
Dimthing night five
No-one is murdered
Dimthing day six
7 passengers
Nominations:
Ios nominates Hophtrig
John The Less nominates Otto
Hophtrig nominates Eliabulon
Votes:
Otto: Hophtrig
Hophtrig: Eliabulon
John The Less: Hophtrig
Zapaterietxe: Otto
Ios: Hophtrig
Codine: Hophtrig
Eliabulon: has not yet voted
Results so far:
4 - Hophtrig
1 - Eliabulon
1 - Otto
Innocent Hophtrig is lynched
Dimthing night six
Innocent Symbiote (Unreadable) Zapaterietxe is murdered
Dimthing day seven
5 passengers
Nominations:
John The Less nominates Otto
Ios nominates Eliabulon
Votes:
Eliabulon: Otto
Otto: Eliabulon
John The Less: Otto
Codine: Otto
Ios: Eliabulon
3 - Otto
2 - Eliabulon
Innocent Otto is lynched
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
I started talking more because there are fewer people. Whenever my fictitious person is posting on a forum like the ship, I tend not to say things when I think other people will say them. As we get fewer people on this flying bug, there are fewer people and there are more things that if I want them said, I'd better say them.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
Und so it all comes down to John.
Vell, vun thing zat I agree vith Ios about is zat Codine is Possessed. But only because zere is no vun else it could be.
So I vill say a grudging "vell done" to Codine. To get as far as zis vith no real suspicion aimed at you, except for Ios's (hastily withdrawn) accusation based on missing John out of a list, zat is impressive. Even now, knowing you to be guilty, I cannot see any ozer mistakes.
Obviously I vill not know fall into ze trap of thinking zat you are arguing in good faith. Clearly you have to attack your conspirator now zat ze only innocent person (apart from John) knows zat ze ozer 'unknowns' are guilty, so part of your cover must be to acuse Ios, as her's is to accuse you. But I vill pick up on vun thing you say because zere is a clue to truth in it:
quote:
Originally posted by Gwai:
That was the post that persuaded me Eliabulon was guilty. Did she perhaps avoid giving that evidence out until it was too late? Heck, her post two hours before it was very useful too. Why was it held back?
Ios has ze start of an answer zere: she 'knew' I vas guilty ven she realised zat you und Otto could not both be innocent, und zen all ze pieces fell into place. It ignores ze point zat she had all ze pieces before zen, but zere is some sense to it. But thinking of zat makes me realise zat I vas wrong on an important point today, und Ios vas ahead of me.
I said zat it did not matter to ze killers vich of ze two innocents zey kill. Zat vas a mistake. It did matter - it mattered because you und Ios vanted not just to kill an innocent today, but to leave alive ze innocent zat you calculated zat John vould be least likely to protect. You vanted not only to kill vun of Otto or I, but also to undermine ze ozer. Und I note zat your approach today vas to nudge John to lynch Otto vile keeping ze door open to lynch me - saying you vould not nominate me, not because you thought me innocent, but only because you preferred Otto. Vereas Ios did ze opposite - pushed for my nomination, but not, as you observe, vith all ze force she might (both nominees vere innocent, she did not need to) vile leaving enough suspicion of Otto. I think zat, in ze end either of us vould have served your purpose, but it vas a bit more nuanced a play zan simply lynching vun innocent, no matter vich. You vere already setting up tonight.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I would rather stick needles in my eyes than read any more of this cant.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
You vill vant to read zis, Ios. You do not make many mistakes, but zis is vun, und I am sure zat you vill vant to learn from it in future lives.
I thought zat I remembered something, und I vas right. Zis post by Ios is ze key:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
I am now thinking vether Otto is genuinely convinced by Ios's analysis of Codine's views, or trying to head off ze vote against Choey.
Or the two remaining Possessed are Otto and Codine, and Otto is working to build a cast-iron claim to be Innocent.
Ze context is ze start of ze vote ven ze evicted Choey. Ios had posted her soon-to-be-retracted suspicion of Codine. Otto had declared an intention to vote for him, following Ios's accusation.
Vy is zis significant? Because of zis:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
By my calculations, we must lynch a Possessed today and then John must keep himself alive by protecting himself every night. (So that if we get down to one Innocent and one Possessed, the Innocent will be self-protecting John and the Possessed won't be able to murder that night.). Then we are guaranteed a win.
I vas arguing at ze time (vithout spelling out ze analysis – zere vas no reason not to leave some room for ze Possessed to make a mistake) zat sacrifices by ze killers at zat point vere unlikely, because ze guilty could not afford any losses.
Ze point of Ios' post about ze endgame is zat she had vorked zat out too. Indeed, I vould hardly expect her to miss it. So vy, if she genuinely suspected Codine, und genuinely thought Otto might be guilty but still follow her in voting to lynch him? On ze facts Ios knew, if zat vere right, Otto vas on ze brink of making an unrecoverable, losing, mistake. Und she discouraged him! She drew attention to ze suspicious spin she vould put his vote if he voted to lynch Codine, und Codine vas later seen to be guilty. Vy vould somevun who really suspected Codine do zat?
Vat a time to express ze vun real suspicion ve ever had of Codine, as vell. Everyvun thought Ja'ayem had tried to shield Choey or Hophtrig*, und most of us thought it was Choey. She vas clearly ze favoured suspect. Zere vas no safer time for Ios und Codine to stage zeir mock-suspicion. Even so, ven Otto looked like he vould bite, Ios gave vun of ze subtle steers zat she is so very good at. Und ze crucial point is zat an innocent-Ios vould have positively velcomed a sacrifice play by ze guilty, because she had ze analytical skill to realise zat if zey did zis, it vas a certain loss of zem. Ze real Ios did ze opposite.
(*Except ze guilty, of course. Und it is vorth noting zat Ja'ayem's double-bluff to shield Choey und Hophtrig vas accompanied by ze equally devious bluff of nominating Ios. It should also be noted zat Ios herself voted for Choey in a vun vord post, vith no explanation of ze change of mind, und BEFORE Codine had answered ze accusation against him. Und ze vote only stood at two to vun at zat point, so ze result vas still open. Read ze transcript – ze bottom half of page 23).
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ios is one f*cking mass of contradictions and couldn't pour piss out of a boot if the instructions were written on the heel, that's why.
Ios is phenomenally stupid.
I haven't read most of the junk you just posted, Eliabulon, because I just don't care. You outwitted us at every turn. Hophtrig and Otto started raising the alarm earlier, because they thought I was Innocent and so they had one fewer variable to play with. And also because they're smart and I'm stupid. But no-one listened. Stupid us.
I don't care any more. Maybe John will foil a murder, and then we'll see if the two Innocents (by which I mean John and Ios) can finally stick together long enough to lynch a Possessed Being. Or maybe the Memory of Zapaterietxe will take over John's mind again and John will become convinced that Eliabulon has got to be Innocent. And both Codine and Eliabulon will be hammering that Ios should be lynched, and there goes our last wisp of hope.
Ironic isn't it? Of our two Beings who came on this bus with a fixed preconception about Eliabulon, the one who wasn't believed was right and the one who was believed was wrong.
Gee, isn't it interesting that BOTH Eliabulon and Codine are busy arguing that I must be Possessed? A bit contradictory, don't you think? If either of them is correct, it means the other is busily arguing against his/her own partner in crime.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Another possibility is that John is Possessed and a false medical claimant, and we have another living Being on this bus who is even stupider than I: an undeclared real Doctor who has left it this late in the bus tour to declare.
But I don't believe either Eliab or Gwai are that stupid, so Eliabulon and Codine, don't you even try making a false claim, because I might piss myself laughing at you.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
John, I don't actually believe you're a false claimant, but I've been running in my mind through all sorts of bizarre possibilities that could conceivably take place.
Incidentally, even if one of us is killed tonight, there is still a remote chance that we Innocents can win. So don't give up hope no matter how things appear in the morning.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Gee, isn't it interesting that BOTH Eliabulon and Codine are busy arguing that I must be Possessed? A bit contradictory, don't you think? If either of them is correct, it means the other is busily arguing against his/her own partner in crime.
But it is obvious vy zis must be ze case.
Zere are two killers left. Zere are three people who might be killers. Vun of zose three knows zat she (or he, but in fact it is me) is innocent, und zerefore zat ze ozer two are guilty.
It does not matter how good you or Codine have been in concealing yourselves - because I am innocent I know zat you can't be. I must accuse you both.
Und Codine, knowing zis, must act as if she vere ze vun innocent person und you und I vere ze killers. So ve vill both accuse you. Und both of us vill accuse each ozer. Und zat vould be true if it vere him who vas guily, und even if ve both vere.
It cannot be any ozer vay. Zere is only vun innocent left apart from John Everyvun vill claim to be zat person.
I think zat anyvun reading ze transcript I referred to, und you conspicuously have not sought to explain, vill conclude zat neither you nor Codine is innocent. Though I confess zat I have ze advantage of knowing for certain zat you are both guilty.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
But I don't believe either Eliab or Gwai are that stupid, so Eliabulon and Codine, don't you even try making a false claim, because I might piss myself laughing at you.
Codine may try zis if he vishes. I believe zat you und I have both expressly disclaimed having any special role.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
I think zat anyvun reading ze transcript I referred to, und you conspicuously have not sought to explain,
I haven't bothered seeking to explain because fictitious A. has had quite enough of trying to reason in her Fake Life with a pathological liar, and has finally succeeded in cutting the cancer out of her life. Bus Tour Ios is feeling pretty much the same.
And also because Ios and A. both just Don't. Give. A. Shit. any more.
If John and I are both alive in the morning, and John wants me to answer anything about what you or Codine has posted, I will. Or if John during this Dimthing night wants me to answer or explain anything, I will. Until then, produce as much lying crap as you want. Smear my name. I. Don't. Care.
Fictitious A. is in fear of having her reputation trashed left right and center in her own church by a Manipulative Narcissistic Bastard, and, in the Life imitates Art imitates Life imitates Art sweepstakes, if you and Codine want to run me off this bus by manipulating John into thinking I'm Possessed without John at least having the grace to ask me what I have to say, then Just Go Ahead and F*cking Do It.
I hear that in the afterlife Innocent Beings get to see the Sapphire Falls. Possessed Beings who survive to the end after killing all the Innocents find themselves trapped on a stranded bus surrounded by xtonic radiation with nothing to eat but Roo Power Bars composed of raw Roo Power. Good thing Choey left you with a big supply as she left the bus.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
I promise not to claim any role besides innocent.
And yes, it makes complete sense to me that the Possessed are attacking each other. You and Eliabulon can't afford not to because otherwise it would be obvious that you were possessed.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Whatever happens, it's been fun, fictitous A. Take care of yourself.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
John, another reason why I didn't trot out all of my reasons to suspect Eliabulon until too late are that I didn't think I had to. You had said you would support lynching Eliabulon, Otto was sure to vote to lynch Eliabulon, I had no idea you were going to rush in and have to vote early, I thought I had time to look carefully at both Otto and Eliabulon one more time before voting and that I also had time to figure out how to lay out all of my thinking coherently before you and I voted, if it turned out that you needed more persuasion after hearing from Eliabulon after I nominated her.
More fool me.
If I'd been more decisive and decided that I was going to force the vote by voting early against Eliabulon, discussion and cooperation be damned, then we wouldn't be in this pickle.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Fictitious Gwai, I find you absolutely terrifying. Even knowing you're Possessed by the process of elimination, I can't find one frigging suspicious thing about you.
No, there's one thing: you always vote late. So no suspicion can attach to you as causing any Being's death. Except once when Ja'ayem was obviously Naughty, and you swooped in early to vote. No-one was going to get the chance to say you tried to save that obvious criminal! And then, surprise surprise, here you are finding the time in your busy schedule to lynch Otto quickly.
[ETA: Oh, and your smile. Codine's smile has always creeped me out. But Innocent Lovely Lesley also had an explicitly creepy smile, and she was Innocent. So that's nothing to go on, more's the pity.]
[ 18. April 2014, 02:33: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
You two Possessed fools are cracking me up! I think I'm going to start charging admission. The circus ain't got nothin' on this.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ios settles herself more firmly in the front seat, Choey and Hophtrig's Zardoc screwdriver firmly in her hand. She's not sure if it's to defend herself as needed, or to gouge her own eyes out to escape from the stratospheric level of fibs going on.
Fictitious A. whispers -- "See, you're just like me. I liked Mel Gibson's Passion of the Christ torture porn. And you keep tormenting yourself by reading this thread. E & C don't care about you anyway, they're just trying to get at John. So leave them to it, and come do something nice like sit with me and the Blessed Sacrament in the Garden of Repose."
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
John, another reason why I didn't trot out all of my reasons to suspect Eliabulon until too late are that I didn't think I had to.
I am sorry.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Thanks, John.
This whole bus tour has been a terrifying case study in how very different we all are from each other, and even with our best intentions this makes it incredibly difficult for all of us to work together.
I think there's a sermon topic there.
Seriously, I'm looking forward after this tour ends to gathering in Valhalla and talking about how on Dimthing anyone in Fake Life manages to trust and work together with anyone else. If Fake Life avatars thought that 25% of the people they met were out to kill them, would that destroy society the way it's been so thoroughly destroyed here on the Dimthing bus tour?
There are probably oodles of case studies, both far away and right out our Fake Life back doors, to suggest that the answer is, "Yes."
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
There have been many beings who have died on the bus over the last several days—but strange things happen in the radiation belts of Dimthing, moon of Fail, and some of the beings were extraordinarily powerful, able to create objects out of thin air, or having pouches and pockets without bottom. Somehow, in the collective ectoplasm, a box of popcorn appears where Zapatereitxe's very worn and battered hat once was, dusted in a faint red substance. A bit of it disappears, as if being munched by an unseen being, and is then replenished—there are no doubt many hungry ghosts watching and enjoying the recent proceedings.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ios stabs the ghostly box of popcorn with her Zardoc screwdriver. The Zardoc screwdriver has many talents besides simply screwing screws: the box of popcorn vanishes, along with the contented feeling of the assembled munching ghosts.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
:
A feather, iridescent in the dark, as if creating its own light floats gently, almost falling and then floating up again, changing colour, and the fading. It almost seems to be dancing, or is it hopping?, keeping time to heartbeat of life, and of death. The fabulous feather fades from view, fluttering down, seeming to alight, but was it really ever there?
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
Unfortunately for Ios and her magic screwdriver, ghosts are aspacial and omnipresent. An overhead luggage compartment opens, the popcorn box rematerializes, and an odd unpopped kernel or two pops her in the head.
Ghosts do not take kindly to having their popcorn disturbed.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ios is meditating on the beautiful feather. She's still not sure she saw it, but she's going to live as if she saw it.
In the meantime, she has been reading over fictitious A.'s shoulder while fictitious A. reads about a bunch of fools on a ship. Ios decides that if fictitious Hegel is anything like his most vocal exponent (angelic variety) on board the Dimthing bus, that means Hegel will be overweeningly confident in all his beliefs and yet actually be wrong FIVE TIMES OUT OF SIX. She advises A. that the best course of action is to completely ignore Hegel, and Ios will ignore all angels and any of their descendants who sign up for bus tours.
Furthermore Ios hopes the angel chokes on his popcorn.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
A bag of roasted arboreal kernels appears in Ios' hand.
The label reads "To You."
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
John, another reason why I didn't trot out all of my reasons to suspect Eliabulon until too late are that I didn't think I had to. You had said you would support lynching Eliabulon, Otto was sure to vote to lynch Eliabulon, I had no idea you were going to rush in and have to vote early, I thought I had time to look carefully at both Otto and Eliabulon one more time before voting and that I also had time to figure out how to lay out all of my thinking coherently before you and I voted, if it turned out that you needed more persuasion after hearing from Eliabulon after I nominated her.
In ozer vords, vith two innocent nominations, you vere setting up a “sorry zat I did not try harder to lynch ze ozer vun” excuse, rather zan a “sorry I got it wrong but he looked so guilty” excuse. Or perhaps you vould have been happy vith either.
You are a sly vun, Ios, und I say zat vith all ze respect due to a fine enemy.
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Fictitious Gwai, I find you absolutely terrifying. Even knowing you're Possessed by the process of elimination, I can't find one frigging suspicious thing about you.
Und vun thing ve can agree on is zat Codine has played zis very vell. Anozer foe vorthy of respect.
My vun hope, possibly a vain vun, is to live long enough to see at least vun of you dead so zat I may drink to your memory und pray to ze gods of ze Wrik zat in futures lives ve might be on ze same team.
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on
:
Part of me is considering a new game where in each phase (suspicion, nomination, voting) each person is limited to 1 post, of a maximum 140 characters
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
E: blah blah blah.
WK: chirp chirp! tweet tweet!
You have 93 characters left.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
pray to ze gods of ze Wrik zat in futures lives ve might be on ze same team.
Picked this up while scrolling past your post since it happened to be at the end. (Not bothering to read otherwise, oh Eliabulon Speaker With Forked Tongue.)
Yes, it would be fun to be Possessed together. We could utterly terrorize the populace.
To be Innocent together, not so easy. E and C have pretty much poisoned the well as far as any trust their Innocent descendants might hope to get from an equally Innocent Ios-heir on future bus trips.
I'm thinking I'll do my nominating and voting by random number generator on the next bus tour. Expecting the poor abused (but infinitely thanked for reading this encyclopedia of mayhem) hosts to recover enough to permit that in about 2018.
[ 18. April 2014, 12:04: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Starbug (# 15917) on
:
In the outer reaches of the darkness, at the point just beyond the corner of the eye, a shadowy figure with an aristocratic bearing appeared. Silently, it sat down in mid-air next to Zapatereitxe, reached across him for a handful of invisible popcorn and began to munch.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ios wonders why she needs a bag full of nuts when she's already spent the week with a bus full of nuts.
Oh. Of course. She's been left holding the bag.
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Wet Kipper:
Part of me is considering a new game where in each phase (suspicion, nomination, voting) each person is limited to 1 post, of a maximum 140 characters
[Once it's permitted I intend to open (or resurrect Daffyd's) a thread for many thoughts that go wider than this game.]
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
In the silence, a snatch of distant flute music seems to be accompanied by ethereal voices faintly singing:
And their ghosts may be seen as you pass by the Sapphire Falls, you'll come a-waltzing with Hophtrig and me...
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Codine bows slightly. [ooc: I didn't realize how much Codine smiles. It's remarkably hard to write him without it. /ooc]
I have never spent a more enjoyable week than with this brilliant bunch of prophets, freaks, and killers.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
A horrible thing, which parallels fictitious A.'s Life imitating Art imitating Life imitating Art recent nightmare, is that you keep remembering things that you trusted, and now you find out may well have been big fat fibs. And mostly, you'll never know; just throw out everything you were ever told from that source, because it's completely unreliable.
For example, the touching story of Eddie Eli and why Clan Eliab was nervous for a while after, but expresses that nervousness no more... absolutely true? Or was the Grafinn tap-dancing like crazy there?
I'll probably never know.
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
:
A previously unnoticed Holovision set flickers into life for a moment
"... all such good friends to Hophtrig..."
then off again
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
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In the off chance we have two innocents in the morning, I intend to lynch Codine first.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
OK. I have no idea why you're choosing that way, but I'll go with either C or E, whichever you choose.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
In the off chance we have two innocents in the morning, I intend to lynch Codine first.
On ze vun hand, good, because he is guilty.
On ze ozer, I vould sincerely urge you to listen und think vith an open mind, but to say little zis evening. Vy? Because you have no vun to persvade of anything. Apart from you, everyvun still alive knows everything. Ze killers know who is guilty by direct knowledge, ze ozer innocent by elimination. Vun person is on your side und is telling ze truth. Two are lying.
Everything now depends on you making ze right decision. My real fear is zat if, even after reading ze transcript I asked you to look at, you think zat I am guilty und say so ze killers know zat I vill be unprotected tonight, und zey vill kill me. Naturally, a Pavian Landsgraf vill never admit to a fear of death, but my murder vould also mean zat ve lose, und zat I very much vish to avoid.
As you do not know for sure who is innocent, ze only prudent thing for you to do is to let ze killers imagine zat anyvun might be protected. A declaration zat you do not trust somevun, if zat person is actually innocent, dooms zem, und means ze innocents lose.
It does not matter so much zat you do not trust Codine - he is a killer - but I do urge you to be careful vat you say, as it could give ze killers a clue vat you vill do tonight. Our hopes depend on you getting ze choice right.
You can, I hope, see zat zis advice makes sense whoever it is zat is innocent. I vant you to realise zat I am innocent (und, tomorrow, our lives likely depend on you seeing zat), but zat can vait until morning. Right now, ze thing zat matters is stopping ze murder. So even if you do not see zat I am innocent, even if you are utterly convinced zat I am guilty, please do not give ze killers information zey can use tonight. If zey out-guess you, zey vin.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Truth.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Now that I'm less angry:
Eliab probably really knows this, despite Eliabulon's professed expressions of disbelief (which are probably as unreliable as everything else Eliabulon has said):
Eliabulon's coming out against Second Partridge so decisively is what got me wondering again about Eliabulon as a possibility for Possessed. Eliabulon protests that she considered it, but her explanation was incredibly poor at communicating that to me. But I still had a very hard time believing that either Eliabulon or Codine were Possessed, because they had said, and continued to say, so many things which were very smooth and believable to me.
I was absolutely serious when I said to Hophtrig that it would be a nasty shock to me if Hophtrig wasn't Possessed, because it would mean at least one of either Eliabulon or Codine were Possessed (*). You can see how much I was convinced E & C were Innocent by how blithely I left control of the Hophtrig vote up to them. I'm not sure if I could have affected the outcome in any case, but it never even occurred to me that we were in danger precisely because Eliabulon and Codine were now in control of the outcome. I'm grateful to Hophtrig for making his comment about "prepare for a nasty shock." It didn't convince me enough to convince me not to vote for Hophtrig (sorry Hophtrig), but it did get me turning the possibility (of E and/or C's Possession) over more in my mind, so that when Hophtrig was confirmed to be Innocent the shock was not as nasty as it would have been.
Once Hophtrig was confirmed as Innocent, then I had to confront the fact that at least one of Eliabulon or Codine were Possessed. Once I had to acknowledge that at least one of those convincing smooth-talkers was Possessed, it was also possible that both were. So Eliabulon's feigned shock about how I went from stating that I was convinced she was Innocent early on, to outing her as Possessed with such conviction on this latest Dimthing day, is entirely fake and also supremely stupid in its reasoning.
I still had a really hard time believing Codine might be Possessed, because unlike Eliabulon, Codine had thrown up no specific suspicious flags apart from the late voting pattern I mentioned. And even that voting pattern could easily be explained away. I think that's why I instinctively went for Eliabulon instead of Codine as my nominee: because I could make a case against Eliabulon, whereas I couldn't make much of a case against Codine yet. (And I still can't make much of a case against Codine, except that I know that by process of elimination he must be Possessed.)
For the Otto vote, I was much more suspicious of Eliabulon than of Otto by the time the vote started. Then Eliabulon and Codine's votes came in, and after taking time to consider all sorts of very low percentage possibilities, I had proof of the guilt of E & C. That proof of course allowed me to be much more strong and convincing in my denunciation of Eliabulon, because I didn't have to be distracted by doubts such as "oh it could have another explanation if E is Innocent."
I don't think A. could have a hypothetically Possessed Ios fake anger as she has expressed recently. Shock and outrage as after Joostein's false claim, yes. Incandescently coruscating anger, no. That's because of my belief about the potential effect of even faked anger on Innocent targets and their Fake Life friends. So if someone really knows me, they might take that as evidence of my Innocence. I don't know if anyone, either here on the bus, or even here on the ship, would have any reason to know me that well.
(*) curious, I see I am wavering on whether or not to use the subjunctive in this sentence, and have made different choices in the two clauses. Perhaps fictitious Gwai the editor-nerd would have an opinion on whether Hophtrig-clause should get the subjunctive as well? signed, fictitious A., lover of the rare traces of the distinguishable subjunctive left in English.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ios the Idiot:
For the Otto vote, I was much more suspicious of Eliabulon than of Otto by the time the vote started.
Alas, I wasn't convinced enough to pull the trigger right away when voting opened and vote for Eliabulon immediately. Hopefully that would have forced John to vote for Eliabulon.
Who knows, though, an early Eliabulon vote by me might not have made any difference. Maybe John was so convinced that Otto was Possessed that the two of us, Otto and me, both voting for Eliabulon so quickly would have caused John's head to explode and once he picked up the pieces he might have decided that I must be Possessed along with Otto, and he would have voted for Otto anyway.
[ 19. April 2014, 14:58: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Fictitious Gwai supports the use of the subjunctive there.
Codine maintains his innocence against claims by Eliabulon and Ios, but isn't going to make any more big speeches because everyone's mind is probably made up.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Who knows? There may be several more flip-flops to come.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Fictitious A. thanks fictitious Gwai re: subjunctive and also re: previous well-wishes.
quote:
Originally posted by Gwai:
Codine maintains his innocence against claims by Eliabulon and Ios, but isn't going to make any more big speeches because everyone's mind is probably made up.
Codine on the other hand is a snake-in-the-grass. A brilliantly wicked snake-in-the-grass.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Wishing blessed Easter greetings to all assembled Beings, Ghosts, Fictitious Friends, The Absolute Dafyd, Long-Suffering Hosts, and all Lurkers. Christ is Risen!
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Now that I'm less angry:
Ios, zose vere arguments of desperation, not anger.
Zis is, perhaps, ze most obviously veak:
quote:
You can see how much I was convinced E & C were Innocent by how blithely I left control of the Hophtrig vote up to them. I'm not sure if I could have affected the outcome in any case, but it never even occurred to me that we were in danger precisely because Eliabulon and Codine were now in control of the outcome.
Zis is (vun) simply not true, und (two) vould not be evidence if it vas.
You did not leave ze outcome to Codine und I. Your vote for Hophrig put Otto in ze clear. Codine (or I if I had voted first) had ze choice of lynching Hophtrig or no vun, vith ze choice passing to me if he chose no vun. Ve did not have ze option of evicting Otto after your vote (Zapaterietxe's vote removed ze possibility of lynching me except by suicide).
But even if ve suppose you had left it to us, vat does zat prove? Ze options John has to consider are:
A) Ios is innocent, Codine and Eliabulon are Possessed;
B) Ios is Posessed, und so is Codine, Eliabulon is innocent;
C) Ios is Posessed, und so is Eliabulon, Codine is innocent.
For ze purpose of zis analysis, B und C can be viewed together.
You say zat it is A. On zat hypothesis, it is possible zat, wrongly thinking zat Codine und Eliabulon innocent, because ze killers are Otto und Hophtrig, you leave ze choice to lynch a suspected killer to somevun you think is on your side.
But suppose is it B or C. Zen you know for sure zat ze vuns at risk, Otto und Hophtrig, are innocent, und you have a co-conspirator still to vote. On either of zese hypotheses, you know zat it does not matter, vich victim you lynch, so can safely leave ze choice to ze ozers.
On any available hypothesis, your vote is consistent vith ze facts. It is zerefore, in itself, evidence of nothing, eqvally plausible und explicable if you are guilty or if you are innocent.
Vat is suspicious is ze fact you misrepresent it as leaving ze outome up to ozers, ven in fact it left us vith exactly vun possible victim. Zat is ze sort of thing you need to say to explain vy you apparently trusted two people, vun of whom you vant him to accuse, und vun you must of necessity now pretend to betray. Zat is something ze guilty person must lie about. Ze innocent person vould have a true answer to give*. Zat you misrepresent ze facts IS evidence, because it is something ze guilty must do und ze innocent need not.
(*It is fair to give mine. Ios und Codine played zis vell. Zere vere times zat I vas suspicious of Ios (especially in her support of Hophtrig's insane scheme) but zere vas alvays somevun who looked more guilty, sometimes rightly und sometimes wrongly. Codine never really moved out of ze 'no real evidence' category. Both vere apparently usefully analytical, Ios ze more so. I vas never convinced zat both vere innocent, because I know both to be very good at duplicity, but zey never topped my list of suspects, nor, I think, anyvun else's. Ze only case against Codine vas made by Ios herself, but not backed by Ios's actual vote. I do not need to invent or slant any facts to say any of zat. You need only look back on my vords und see zat everything I have said or done, even ze mistakes, are fully consistent vith innocence, und vun highly significant action (ze analysis zat led to finding ze conspirator) is really only consistent vith innocence).
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
[OOC]
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Wishing blessed Easter greetings to all assembled Beings, Ghosts, Fictitious Friends, The Absolute Dafyd, Long-Suffering Hosts, and all Lurkers. Christ is Risen!
Happy Easter to all of you, too.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Gwai:
Codine maintains his innocence against claims by Eliabulon and Ios, but isn't going to make any more big speeches because everyone's mind is probably made up.
You mean zat if John is really decided on you as a suspect tomorrow, zen you vill pin your hopes on a successful murder tonight, und leave it to Ios und I to make ze case against each ozer.
If you vere innocent, I think you vould not do zis. If you vere innocent you vould know zat Ios und I vere your enemies, und arguing vith each ozer only for a cover (und, of course, because ve enjoy it - something vich is obviously true in both our cases, und belied by Ios' pretended anger und frustration). An innocent person vould not rely on a conspirator to make ze case against anozer conspirator.
I think zat post of yours is strongly indicative of your guilt. Und I am certainly not going to leave it to your conspirator Ios to say so.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
John, note the despicable lows to which Eliab is reduced: claiming that I don't know my own emotions and that I'm not angry.
That's disgusting.
It's damaging to the soul to spend too much time picking through lies, so I'm not bothering with what E & C wrote. It all just goes to show that I'm as fallibly stupid and deluded as any of us Innocents have been.
It's entirely up to you whatever you want to decide. I'm off to read Philippa Gregory (yay, Kindle) with fictitious A. and plan to have an entirely delightful Easter.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
[OOC]
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Wishing blessed Easter greetings to all assembled Beings, Ghosts, Fictitious Friends, The Absolute Dafyd, Long-Suffering Hosts, and all Lurkers. Christ is Risen!
Happy Easter to all of you, too.
May we all experience the wonder of the empty tomb...
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
I'm too emotionally and mentally drained right now to say anything wise. I'm also feeling a bit hopeless at the moment, likely because of the aforementioned exhaustion. You'll have to listen to Barefoot Friar for now.
"What? Oh, hi. Quite an adventure, eh? I'm always looking to meet shipmates, but I would especially like to meet Ariston and A. Road. Well, and everyone else. Since I don't get out much, a virtual wave will have to suffice for now. Good night, good luck, and good game."
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I'm sorry you're drained and exhausted, John and Barefoot Friar. I experienced great beauty and peace in the Easter service I went to last night. I hope you have had some of that yourself somewhere in your round of Easter services. One profound thing I heard last night is that the Resurrection means that out of death there is life. So either we will survive and Dimthing Tours will arrive with help to recover our missing engine, or we will die and see the Sapphire Falls together with all our friends.
Ios has had it very easy before tonight on our bus trip, because I've never been seriously suspected and so I've been able to post at great length [oh yes, at very great length, moan the exhausted Hosts] without worrying about whether it might lead me to be incorrectly suspected, thus wasting Innocent chances by incorrectly lynching me. And also I haven't had practice in trying to convince Beings of my Innocence.
So now, when I'm faced with a malevolent Eliabulon looking to make legal mincemeat out of everything I have ever said, I am quadruply at a disadvantage. One, I am out of practice at defending myself. Two, Eliabulon is not your usual Innocent Being trying to make sense of things, but rather a Possessed Bulldog with only me left as a possible chew toy, and she is never ever ever going to give up. Three, I am thinking that Clan A.Road's Ph.D in math and our kind and empathetic heart are no match for Clan Eliab's legal training, and I will never ever ever be able to beat Clan Eliab in a battle of wits. And four, fictitious A.'s recent experiences [detailed in her recent monograph "Emerging from agony" published by All Saints Press] means that I am really truly not in a mood to read things that I know to be lies posted with Naughty intent and bother to try to reason with them.
[ 21. April 2014, 01:40: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
Dimthing Tours are pleased to announced that Ios has been killed in the night. She was innocent. The Possessed now have a majority. Dimthing Tours would like to welcome our new mysterious entity masters.
Dimthing Tours are pleased to announced that Ios has been killed in the night. She was innocent. The Possessed now have a majority. Dimthing Tours would like to welcome our new mysterious entity masters.
Congratulations to Wet Kipper, Jay-Emm, Eliab, and Gwai.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
I have cleared up plenty of space in my inbox for excuses and apologies.
On another hand, good game, Eliab, Wet Kipper, Gwai and Jay-Emm. Lots of great writing from everyone, and a great deal of fun participating!
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Doouble-poosted just too mäke sure foolks underständ läst poost wäs written froom Välhällä with wry smile, noot ræl änger oor frust... frust... frusträtilätioon.
Quick nootes:
- Brilliänt dooctooräl woork, Joohn!
- Zäpä, I think yoou änd me häve thingings too discoos.
- Hoophtrig änd OottoO mäy be funniest pärticipänts I've ever exp... exp... exepereienciälized myself. Cän't imägine whät they be likings äfter soome hælth- änd mirth-bringing mæd here in Välhällä foor äfter-pärty.
- Äs I PM'd äfter dæth, DÄMN IT Eliäbuloon, yoou be härd too cräck!
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
The creature that had worn Ekatarina's mind and body takes a few last moments to enjoy the memories of the carnage. It was satisfied with its choice. The Grafinn had had a reasonable mental matrix for a flesh-creature, and enough aggression and cunning for the entity to make use of a small fraction of its own unrestrained malevolence. She had, though, also had an intriguing and repugnant sense of loyalty and honour, and had resisted Possession to the end with silent mental anguish. It had been both gratifying and worrying continually to channel her innate arrogance and self-will into acts of murder and treachery against her companions. The creature relaxes its hold just a little, the better to sense its host's remorse and despair. These are always its favourite moments of its incarnations.
Tears of frustration and terror form in Ekatarina's eyes, and her aristocratic poise dissolves with the tremors wracking her body as she struggles in vain against the spirit's lighter control. Her shoulders contort painfully, but she is unable to force the scream out through a mouth that is still grinning broadly in triumph.
[ 21. April 2014, 07:42: Message edited by: Eliab ]
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
Yay can post again.
First two posts written on the day of my eviction.
quote:
First my basic gameplan was to act as much like an innocent as possible.
This seemed to go ok.
Two difficult bits were Hoptrigs plan, at first sight it was clearly insane.
But when he worried about a false detective claim, it was exactly what I was wondering.
(and desperately trying to do the odds).
One rather bizarre thing, is I managed to convince myself that he might be the detective for nominating Otto, despite the fact I knew he was wrong.
The second was that JFH was absolutely right, and I had to convince myself he was wrong.
In any case I felt rather rotten about it, fortunately things moved too fast.
At the time of writing, no-one seems to have discounted this as a possibility.
This may have been the start of my undoing as everyone else seemed to accept their version of events without question,
and it made me look odd for being uncertain.
Similarly with the who the detective investigated thing (I knew either alternative was consistent).
In any case around this time people started to re-assess the first opinion.
I don't know if this was exagerated by internet troubles and real life business.
Or if I was just tired of living a lie, again I seem to have been in too much doubt.
Finally we come to my end. Again I seem to have underestimated your certainty in your delusions.
I thought we were in a position to get the two innocents lynched but thought if you started with me you'd stop.
(in hindsight Chooch may have been too far gone, and I should have say quiet).
In anycase could give Eliab&Codeine a scalp to show their success.
So I had to look suspicious and give the impression there were two of us, which you took up.
In all my posts I had to defend myself but not too well.
It would have been nice if Choo had gone first, or if you had believed me about Ios.
The problem there I had were that the case became (distirbingly) rather good, but was being ignored.
I had to leave open the possibility of a double bluff, while at the same time defending myself.
And of course if she had been lynched it would be good enough.
2 freudian slips I'm aware:
Confusing Reppik for John. (Of course Reppik hadn't pointed anything out, but his name was probably in my subconsious.)
Detective analysis, finding Eliab possibly innocent when assuming the opposite
quote:
Now for the case against Ios.
It's not great (especially now I can read Wednesday's posts in full) but...
quote:
Aw, gee shucks, John [Hot and Hormonal] . Stubs toe in ground.
Ja'ayem, please also say something, anything, about why you chose me to nominate out of your group of four. I'm genuinely curious, about both your real reason (which of course I don't expect to hear until we finish this Bus Tour and finally get to see the Blue Sapphire Falls), and also the reason you've prepared for public consumption. You did remember that you'd need a reason for public consumption when you were nominating me, didn't you?
(Ios)
The real reason was because I wanted to be seen to protect H&C.
John and Zappa were proven innocent, the other 4
(Ios, Cod, Graff, Otto. I saw as in doubt.
You&Zappa seem to have disagreed, but as facts show you were at least half wrong)
I then tossed two coins to decide who to pick (as I didn't want to be easily read).
I knew I was 'innocent', and didn't see H&C as partners in crime.
Hence it was likely there was at most one baddie in the group (probably the sympathizer as Eliab guessed).
That meant there were at least two in the other group (Ios, Cod, Graff, Otto) (as there were)
Moreover, there was a trend against us (understandable, but why not look at the last voters, either!)
Which it was likely the mafia were involved with, so there may even be 3 (and none in our group).
In the worst case, the odds are still better 50% of getting a mafia.
In the best, I can hardly fail, and if I guessed wrong hopefully I'd see something.
If you were convincing I could always take a gamble on C or H.
Or as I put it at the time
quote:
(by me)
It looks to me like someone's got something to gain, I don't know which is innocent out of Otto, Ios, Codeine, Eliab (I'm assuming you(John) and Zappa are innocent) and so I nominate Ios and hope whichever of you four is the innocent one support me (and if I have had the bad luck to nominate the innocent, sorry).
You reasonably challenged, and wrote a lot of posts. Which I ignored partly because I didn't know how to reply.
I'd ignored Graffin's post, because I wanted to be proven wrong.
Partly because I had Lent group on Wednesday and it takes ages to reply (this double post is already at 1.5 hours) and had important visitors at work.
Despite this I rushed a post in the morning, and took my phone where I tried to respond.
"Poor Ja'ayem, he hasn't counted on the fact that Ios has been expecting a last-minute nomination by a Guilty party to take the heat off Guilty nominees."
was of course utterly inaccurate.
The replies the next day were done from phone at work, otherwise I would have had nothing to say on wednesday
Then you picked up on Graffin's mistake. His numbers were right, but it was exactly what I'd said.
of course I should have considered the possibility of two mafia, but I wanted to be seen to supress that
However you jumped on the excuse even including the line.
quote:
" or ... well, just anything instead of abandoning the numerical argument without a peep and moving on to some other argument.
straight after a post where I'd resumed the argument.
But the big killer is
quote:
And also, as I have expected, you have not uttered a peep about why you chose me to nominate.
...
Please propose a set of four Guilties that includes me, Eliabulon, and Reppik,
...
When I'd pretty much proposed Reppik + 3 from GIOC with one unknown innocent, in the accusation (and you'd picked up on that).
So why pretend otherwise, I was suspicious now guilty.
A Reppik theory is easy with C&E&? (near the end) (after all that's nearly what happened).
I'm sure something could have been worked out for the others but pointing out E&C's behaviour didn't seem clever
Actually now I'm seeing a lot more detail in the posts I had to skim over.
At first sight, they looked like evasiveness.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
What a great game! Well played to everyone - that was about as close a result as it is possible to get.
I guess none of you are ever going to trust me again, are you? I swear that one day I'm going to play a quiet Mafia character, just so I don't have to be quite such a shameless liar when I'm next cast as a murderer.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
I'll trust you, Eliab, unless you'll keep up the same kind of obvious, shoddy lying style. Ah well, pity only me noticed it.
Actually, before I dive into any inevitably horrendously long explanations of my actions (the last attempt took 7 posts or so), I'd love to hear what it looked like from the opposing side - Eliab, will you do me the honour?
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
So yes, (wall of text part 2)
Need to apologies to Ios for the pot/kettle remark I can see why it annoyed you.
(also I realised it's a bit of a risky thing to allude to when you can't see the person). In my defence the timetable for Wednesday goes:
Nominated Ios
Went to homegroup
First Ios post (read but ananswered)
Went to bed
Second Ios post
...
Woke up, responded
Loads more Ios posts (don't you sleep?)
...
Work, responding on phone (which is on the small size, great for being able to carry, in small bursts). Actually it worked well, as though normally not supposed to be on phone, we had auditing (think Ofsted but not as bad) so a I had times when I needed to just wait. And the distraction probably was good.
From other posts, real life does seem to have leave more dominant signs for everyone. (an earlier suspicious early vote of mine was early for similar reasons, it had to be early or late)
And I hadn't anticipated Ios being the one to be suspicious. I was hoping that in the event of fakery suspected that the innocents would turn on each other (which kind of happened but not in the right way). And expected only one miracle in the night so either Zappa/John to have died so this last suspense didn't happen (but I was lucky else I think I'd have been facing recrimations, as I probably misjudged).
Also it was interesting to see the last Codeine/Graffin posts. Before then everyone had said 'Oh they are so clever...I can't consider them', but there wasn't much to see. Once really put to the test* you could see why they had the reputation.
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
(wall of text part 3 - relevant titbits from pre game discussion thread)
By Eliab
"Doctors who can self-protect are more powerful than you might think."
"Experience shows that as a general rule, it's easy for the mafia players to spot the detective than for the detective to spot the mafia."
"For the Ypres game" ah, that was the second and last game I played here (looking at my messages I was a soldier. I'm not sure what the first was, I was the Doctor and it was in Feb 2010, and it appears there was a third set in a college (but I died in a week).
Reppik
"yet I was suspected straight away for not saying much. [Biased]
I like playing, but i get lost in the logic of how the timing and content of what someone says can immediately inform seasoned players of what's going on."
Joostein
"Do not fear, it is very simple. You see, the game will usually start with Eliab blubbering about logics and without a clue pointing to someone who should be taken off. Then everyone runs around in circles pointing, screaming and waving hands (in some sort of unclear voting pattern that may or may not really matter)"
All of these were partially true.
Finally I rather naively posted some rules of sufficient play. I think I need to amend them slightly.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Again, I find I should clarify that I was writing with a wry smile (I have to learn to start using smileys!) in my last post. I think I had good reasons for suspecting Eliabulon from day one, it seemed to me to be something slightly parodically Eliabian, although I'm not sure I would be able to pin it down in words. I'm pretty sure I won't be able to do it twice, though, and whereas I'm proud to have been right, Eliab got all of us because he managed to make my truths sound as lies and, God bless him, he's brilliant.
It's also possible, even probable, that the fact that I never trusted him in the first place helped me spot him - so yeah, you probably burned a few bridges there, Eliab.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Humph. I'm nominating Eliab's character FIRST next time!
In all seriousness, good game. I'll go and change my sig line as promised as soon as I'm back to a computer.
One question: how the heck did you spot the detectives?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
The final dreadful shock of the bus tour was that there was no private message from the Absolute. So Ios experienced herself as waking up on the bus, thinking she was still alive.
Then she saw that the Sympathiser seemed to be back, speaking at great length about his evil deeds. How strange.
She attuned her ears better to what was being said, and only now did she hear the echo of The Absolute's voice pronouncing Ios' death.
She looked around. Yes, she seemed to be floating, looking down at her own body slumped in the front seat. Her eyes were still open, staring sightlessly into the early morning light. There was a calm look on her face at last, as of one glimpsing the Sapphire Falls.
Ios floated slowly, backwards, through the front window. The glass tickled slightly as she passed through it, but otherwise was no impediment. She felt the xtonic radiation as a small orange pain, somewhat like a splinter, but she was beyond being hurt.
Somewhere and sometime as she floated, she felt The Lion next to her.
"Please Sir, what will they do to John?" Ios asked.
"It is only given to us to know our own story," replied The Lion. "Turn now child, you have done all you can do for the Innocent Dimthing Tourists."
Ios turned slowly in the orange splintery xtonic air. As she turned, the air changed. Now it felt like waffles and raisins, in the most beautiful shades of blue and green and gold. Ahead were the Sapphire Falls. And there was --
"Is it really?" she asked The Lion, hopeful yet unsure.
"Yes," said The Lion. "The Platonic Hophtrig Hidey Hole. Like the one on the bus, but even more perfect. Welcome, my child." And He breathed His warm breath of rubies and emeralds on her.
Ios floated forwards, faster. The air seemed to be getting larger and ever more beautiful as she went up and in. And now the door of the PHHH opened -- part of its perfection here by the Sapphire Falls seemed to be that it had a handle on the inside -- and out came all her friends, led by Hophtrig and Hophtrig and Otto.
Ios reached out her hands, and joined in the dance.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
I felt stupid most of the game. Honestly, it's a wonder I made it all the way to the end. Here are some random thoughts:
-- It would have been much easier if I could have PMed other innocents. Crimson would have made it. I would have lynched Eliabulon. Zapaterietxe would have made it.
-- I would rather play a game with one detective and innocent PMs than a game with two detectives and no PMs.
-- I enjoyed being the doctor. I sucked at it! But I did enjoy it. I think next time I'll be a lot more careful. I'm kind of ticked off at myself for allowing Joostein and Eliabulon to cajole me into counterclaiming. I should have done as Zapaterietxe said and kept my big mouth shut. I should have protected Crimson until the end. My defense is that I was convinced Zapaterietxe was also a detective, so I had to choose. It's a crappy excuse.
-- I would have loved to be able to ask someone, anyone, who I should protect a couple times. But I couldn't figure out how to ask it within the framework of the rules without tipping off the wrong ones.
-- I vote way too early, and I vote on too little information. Next time I will vote later, after having read over that day's posts and with an idea of who is voting for whom.
-- I nominate way too early, too. I rise early, only a few hours after Dafyd posted his Monday morning call for nominations. Since I'm up, I post. Mistake. I should sit and wait and think about it. The exception was the first morning, when I nominated Reppik Tew. That was a good nomination, because I was working on the previous day's information.
-- I am so very tempted to nominate Eliab's character the first day from now on.
-- I waffle way, way too much.
-- I am not nearly as analytical as I thought I was. Or maybe I'm just not analyzing the right things.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
My guess for the detectives spotting:
1) A close eye and good reading into who's likely to make what kind of comments at what time (e.g. Celandine's "John seems like a trustworthy fellow", Crimson's "You might want to protect me". When you know who's good and bad, it's easier to read more into these things. Still, really well spotted!
2) Celandine pointing out at an odd time, when support tide was turning in favour of Eliabulon, that she seemed suspicious. If you know you're evil and have a lot to lose, you read a lot into any comments about yourself and things like that can really stand out, even IF you think they may be unfounded - if you haven't got any better choice, those things can tip the scales.
I write this from a past experience of detective-hunting - but given the deviosity of our Possessed, anything goes. They may just have perfect instincts, gone with luck, or seen something the rest of us missed completely...
ETA: Cross-posted with A. (
) and Joh... Barefoot Friar!
[ 21. April 2014, 10:40: Message edited by: JFH ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Barefoot Friar, I think the role of Doctor must be a terrible strain, and I think you can be pleased with what you were able to do for us, foiling two murders. Thank you for carrying that role.
Who did you protect last night?
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
John/Barefootie,
PLEASE stop feeling stupid - it'd be embarrassing to the rest of us to pretend anything but that you did a thorough, bordering on great, job. You scored more saves than most previous doctors (I can't recall one with more), you kept the game alive to a 50 % coin toss at the end, better than most times. You have every reason to be proud of your game. You waffled a bit, and you got tricked in a game which can only be won by the other side if they manage to trick you, and which is also usually won by that side. Please lower your standards/expectations or I'll kill you off next game for making me feel guilty for not performing better.
As for coming out as a doctor, I think the jury's still out on that one. I'm waiting for Eliabulon's analysis and then I'll provide my own thoughts, I think. Clue: I think you're wrong in thinking you coming out as a doctor had a major adverse impact on the game. It changed it, but I'm not sure the options were (distinctly) better. I'll get back to this.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Barefoot Friar, I think the role of Doctor must be a terrible strain, and I think you can be pleased with what you were able to do for us, foiling two murders. Thank you for carrying that role.
Who did you protect last night?
You know that scene in the Princess Bride where the guy is trying to decide which flagon of wine is poisoned? I did almost that very thing most of the week. I must hand it to Eliab, he had me doubting for just long enough to wonder. "Inconceivable!" I ended up protecting myself, thinking that they would come for me because they would think I was protecting you.
This was after three coin flips that all came down tails (and protecting you was heads), so I didn't feel too bad about it.
JFH, would you believe this was my first game? I played it once at a party, but that was quite a long time ago, and I had forgotten it until we got into this one. Even then, online is much different from in person.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Barefootie, I would believe it was, you played with a certain such style - not a naivete but possibly a creativity implying unhardenedness in tactics and mentality, but you played it well enough to be treated and counted as a seasoned and trustworthy fellow. You won people's trust and was counted as a high-profile/leading player long before you came out as a doctor, mind you.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
OK. I have no idea why you're choosing that way, but I'll go with either C or E, whichever you choose.
Because you, Eliabulon, and I all agreed he was guilty. I didn't think I could get Codine to go along with lynching Eliabulon. He was protesting innocence, but not much... I could see it going bad quickly. Besides, for half a second there I was beginning to wonder about Ios' innocence. I figured with Codine out of the way I could start lynching randomly and still win. I planned on Eliabulon being next, even though I was slightly unsure of Ios' innocence, because I could see Eliabulon being sneaky like that before Ios.
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
quote:
Originally posted john
JFH, would you believe this was my first game? I played it once at a party, but that was quite a long time ago, and I had forgotten it until we got into thisone. Even then, online is much different from
Would struggle to believe.
Also I think you were the first to suspect me.
It was at that point I really prepared to be cauhgt. Ios did find a few revealing posts from before.
Jay emm. Who has just walked into a moat.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
I think this is the first postgame I've read where Eliab didn't apologize for his character.
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
One question: how the heck did you spot the detectives?
I can't speak for the others,but I didn't.
When we were discussing who to attack the first 2 nights, it felt to me that we were just guessing, and I agreed to those who had been suggested, but maybe Eliab was even playing with our minds behind the scenes........
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Barefoot Friar, PMs have never been permitted among the Innocents. And how would you know you were PMing with another Innocent, and not a malevolent Possessed Being who's feeding you a pack of lies? And if the lies were by PM, the rest of us wouldn't know about them and have any way of countering them.
I would be happy to play again with exactly this set of roles. I think they're a fiendishly challenging and bizarre set of roles, and we have barely begun to plumb the depths of the possibilities of them.
Ios is going to reincarnate on the next bus tour as a small gibbering wreck of incoherence and plead with fictitious A. to let her (Ios) abjure all analysis forever.
Thank you to Dafyd for conjuring up the setting for this insane adventure. Thank you to all bus riders including Innocent, Possessed and Sympathetic. Nine million zillion trillion thanks to the Circus Hosts for reading my many many many ... many ... many long double- triple- quadruple- etc. posts
.
Now I understand why people like roller coaster rides: I'm emerging with my knees shaking, my guts having been thoroughly battered, my heart pounding, breathing in short frightened gasps -- and I can't wait to do it all again.
As the Grafinn would say (may her malevolent self choke on raw Roo Power Bars
): Vow.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Barefoot Friar, PMs have never been permitted among the Innocents. And how would you know you were PMing with another Innocent, and not a malevolent Possessed Being who's feeding you a pack of lies? And if the lies were by PM, the rest of us wouldn't know about them and have any way of countering them.
We actually played a game like that - I was the sheriff, cleared La Vie and then we got lucky/La Vie did her thing and the game ended very quickly. It was a space game - I think Eliab died the first day, being unreadable. In fact, if you look at La Vie's sig, I think that's from precisely that game.
quote:
I would be happy to play again with exactly this set of roles. I think they're a fiendishly challenging and bizarre set of roles, and we have barely begun to plumb the depths of the possibilities of them.
Yeah, great rules with very interesting implications! However, some part of me thinks they were successful largely because we had brilliant crooks. The sympathiser is a huge help and very interesting, but I'm not sure it outweighs double detectives and a serial self-protecting doctor. Imagine if we had role-claims on the first day - it would be extremely difficult to stop a landslide victory, I think - barring perfect hits by the Possessed. I almost pity the crooks for having to give such a virtuoso performance, but then they were totally up to the task.
quote:
Thank you to Dafyd for conjuring up the setting for this insane adventure. Thank you to all bus riders including Innocent, Possessed and Sympathetic. Nine million zillion trillion thanks to the Circus Hosts for reading my many many many ... many ... many long double- triple- quadruple- etc. posts
.
DITTO!
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Barefoot Friar, PMs have never been permitted among the Innocents.
I remember a game (not sure if I was playing, or reading as part of my then Circus-Hostly duties) where there was a subset of the innocents (stonemasons?) who were allowed to PM each other, and had to make sure they were all still alive at the end of the game to make sure they won, even if the mafia were eventually overcome byt he village as a whole.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
I would have to double check, but I think Ariston allowed it in the pirate ship game. Well, he didn't disallow it.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I stand (or float) trebly corrected.
Posted by Starbug (# 15917) on
:
Well, thank goodness that's over! It was so frustrating, knowing that the Grafinn was Possessed and not begin able to tell anyone.
I scanned John first and found he was innocent, but until Crimson died I didn't know whether this was a 'false positive'. Then I scanned the Graffin, but stupidly decided to hang on for another day to scan Hophtrig as well before declaring. This was my first game, so I naively didn't realise that anyone was on to me - in hindsight, I should have declared the Grafinn straight away. It would have saved pages of angst, which was incredibly painful to read and I often felt like this:
Thanks everyone for a great game - especially our host Dafyd. I may need a lie down in a darkened room before the next one, though!
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
I can't wait! I have a good idea for one myself, but I want to play one more before I host one.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
Has anybody other than Eliab ever survived to the end of mafia after being outed by the detective in the second round? I think he deserves some kind of prize for that.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Eliab can have as an award all those lovely bags that Choey left us.
/s/ Ios and A., still smarting from being soundly beaten up down and sideways
[ 21. April 2014, 13:22: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Question: How could Celandine make two inquiries when she was killed off on the second night? Was it assumed that she would be able to "scream" before her death post, in case she'd have done so before the mafia targeted her?
As for Eliab, he deserves all kinds of special prizes really.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Codine smiles again, more broadly this time.
"My master welcomes you all into Possession."
Either way that could have worked--whoever won--that was an insane game and a lot of fun. Seriously well played, everyone.
Re Lady Celandine, who is the detective I was somewhat sure of, it was the not just the tip-offs that others have mentioned, but the sureness. I thought the odds were very high that she'd investigated Eliab, and found him guilty, so I pushed hard for murdering her.
Playing Codine was fun though remarkably tiring. The not posting much really was because I'm relatively reactive as a Mafia player more than calculating; no A.R. I seriously don't do spreadsheets or calculations, as an innocent or as mafia, that post you found so believable was completely true. Still, the constantly checking my posts for mis-statements took a lot more effort than I usually put into a game. Being an editor is something I keep for Realyfe and all. But with the high quality of play everyone else was putting out, how could Codine not want to put out his best effort.
ETA: By the way, A.R. Up until Ja'ayem revealed, we were decently sure you were our sympathizer! That's one reason I helped to mark you as innocent as much as I did
So you pulled one much further over on us than you may have thought.
[ 21. April 2014, 13:28: Message edited by: Gwai ]
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
I think one of the fundamentals of mafia is that the one team knows what is going on and the other doesn't. To that end, I think no private emails between innocents is important. Ideally, one would disallow the mafia from discussing strategy beyond 'whom shall we kill', but I don't think they could discuss whom to kill without discussing strategy. Also, it would be unenforceable.
PMs between innocents would also make the sympathiser role into a nonsense. I don't know how the mafia/ Jay-Emm feel that played out. It was supposed to split the difference between three mafia (too few) and four mafia (too many); while also posing tactical challenges in its own way.
I have no idea how the Inspector Lestrade role would have turned out had both detectives survived more than a couple of rounds. It was supposed to reduce the effectiveness of an early role declaration by the detective. I can see it would have made later role declarations much more powerful.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
[cross-posted with Gwai and Dafyd]
Interesting. Dafyd had posted early on that night actions were resolved at 8 am Monday, and I assumed that meant he would only PM the affected parties after all actions were in, and that if the Detective/Investigator were killed, the D/I wouldn't be told the result of their same-night investigation. Apparently I was wrong.
Starbug, were you trying to give us a clue in your death-post, not knowing that you weren't supposed to?
[ 21. April 2014, 13:29: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Cross-posted an edit with everyone. To add, I'd presumed Lady Celandine investigated Eliab on her first night.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
Question: How could Celandine make two inquiries when she was killed off on the second night? Was it assumed that she would be able to "scream" before her death post, in case she'd have done so before the mafia targeted her?
The detectives learned the results of their investigations when they made them. They weren't killed off until both the Doctor and the mafia got their posts in. Therefore, there was space for them to publicise anything they'd found out if they wished to do so.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
If we had known that, we would have made more of an effort to decide quickly.
[ 21. April 2014, 13:34: Message edited by: Gwai ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Gwai:
ETA: By the way, A.R. Up until Ja'ayem revealed, we were decently sure you were our sympathizer!
Ouch. Groan. Face-palm.
quote:
Originally posted by Gwai:
That's one reason I helped to mark you as innocent as much as I did So you pulled one much further over on us than you may have thought.
Totally inadvertently, alas. I may have to reread and see how that played out. I'm not sure I can though: I think my head has just exploded yet again on this tour.
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
The detectives learned the results of their investigations when they made them. They weren't killed off until both the Doctor and the mafia got their posts in. Therefore, there was space for them to publicise anything they'd found out if they wished to do so.
which we (mafia) thought a bit unfair, if it just came down to a race for who "asked" first.
If the detective investigates a mafioso and gets a positive response before the Mafia tell the "host" that they have chosen that same person for murder, should they be allowed to live and say what they found ?
If so, then is should also follow that if the Mafia are quick to pick on someone, before the doctor chooses who to protect (or they pick the detective before they choose who to investigate), then that person should die, even if the doctor later chooses to protect them.
If you're going to let some things happen in real time, let them all happen in real time. Or publicise a definite "order of play" at the start.
The ability to talk/analyse during the night was one of the things which I didn't like. I'm used to there being nothing said until morning the next day, otherwise the night-time discussions might affect the night actions
(X-posted a bit with Gwai)
[ 21. April 2014, 13:39: Message edited by: Wet Kipper ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
Ariston, will you ever trust Eliab again?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Gwai:
If we had known that, we would have made more of an effort to decide quickly.
And the doctor should counter by deciding late, or at least PMing The Absolute late.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
IMHO, I think that's somewhat unfair against the Mafia, meaning the doc has an incentive to wait up, and given the high number of clearances that can be made by two detectives, we could've without that much trouble seen five people cleared on the second day (three cleared + doc + unreadable). That would make it very hard for the Mafia...
Either way, we ought to have asked that question during the game - I think most of us unconsciously assumed Celandine could only have had one inquiry.
Also, we have to remember that despite mistakes and using hostly powers to fiddle with pre-death posts, Zapaterietxe did spot Reppik which made the game a lot easier. If we'd been down by two detectives and with four active evil players on day three, things could've gone downhill much faster. I've no idea how it would've looked then.
Posted by Wet Kipper (# 1654) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
Zapaterietxe did spot Reppik
I'd like to know what it was that I said which gave me away, and what I could/should have said to try and counter that suspicion.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Wet Kipper:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
Zapaterietxe did spot Reppik
I'd like to know what it was that I said which gave me away, and what I could/should have said to try and counter that suspicion.
I'm going to go with the smugness of having been right when he was all wrong and say that it was probably about the same thing that gave me, Lovely Leslie, Choey, Hophtrig and Otto away.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
[cross-posted.]
Zapaterietxe made one correct call, and then was dead wrong for his next five calls while expressing them with even more certainty than his Reppik-call. His certainty about Otto and Eliabulon contributed, it seems to me, to the snatching-defeat-from-the-jaws-of-victory failure of our final vote.
I'm not sure I'm ever going to give credence to Zapaterietxe or his descendants on a Mafia trip again. Sorry, Ariston.
I made lots of mistakes. The problem is I can't see how to fix them. For example if I'd been more decisive about Eliabulon in the last vote and voted quickly, we might have won. But I was decisive about Hophtrig in the previous vote, and that turned out to be wrong.
I think it goes to show what I said at the beginning: the Mafia always win (except as Crimson pointed out, when the hyper-intelligent Shade Of Red is alive and Innocent), and analysis is useless.
[ 21. April 2014, 13:59: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Wet Kipper:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
Zapaterietxe did spot Reppik
I'd like to know what it was that I said which gave me away, and what I could/should have said to try and counter that suspicion.
vineyard
i suspect i didn't help when i confused who had corrected my mafia count (and I was only too happy.for the sinth to be undervalue)
It added up to your role being negative.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
Since I know you are posting here: AR, your mailbox is full!
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Whoa, that's a first!
Floaty Ios emerges from the PHHH, mailbox pruners in hand, and hurries away to do a bit of PM gardening.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Mailbox pruned, Ios lies down in the emerald-green grass and gazes up at the lapis lazuli sky listening to Otto playing the flute.
Fictitious A. lies down beside her, happily reading Philippa Gregory's The Wise Woman.
Prone and supine, the two friends rest contentedly in a pleasant chiastic haze.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Can we have some netherrack ready in case the Grafinn drops by?
Posted by Starbug (# 15917) on
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Fictitous A, in answer to your question, I was trying to give you a clue in my death post. Before posting I checked with Dafyd what I was allowed to say in that post; he said I couldn't say anything that I hadn't already said during the course of the game. As I'd already alluded to the Grafinn's guilt in a previous post, I felt that it was ok to say 'Don't trust THE' - unfortunately, this was then spun in different directions by various Possessed beings. For example, they quoted me saying 'the Hop-Thing' (which I'd forgotten about!)
John, I'm curious about why you'd choose to save the 'reverse' detective, Crimson, rather than the real detective?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
So when you said you were suspicious of the Grafinn, was that after your Night Two investigation and confirmation of the Grafinn's Possessed nature?
If we had known that the Detective would find out their result immediately and could talk about it, rather than at 8 a.m. only and only if not murdered, we might have responded completely differently.
Sigh. I don't think I would have realized that this was an unquestioned assumption of mine, that we should have asked Dafyd about. That's the problem with unquestioned assumptions of course: you don't -- you logically can't! -- question them.
Eliab or Codine, did you have any inkling of this timing thing? Did you know or suspect that Starbug had certain knowledge of Eliabulon from a Night Two investigation, and was trying to warn us about it?
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
What gave away Reppik? Easy. I wanted to play as a hyper-rational, Purg regular, logic-choppery, deductivething. It's not a way I've ever tried before, and I'm pretty sure I won't be trying it again. It's why I decided to cook up another angel (well, besides that I never did get to flesh out my last one as much as I wanted, and the story ended at exactly the wrong point in her character development)—a being of pure rationality, always on a philosopher attack, perfectly ethical but never feeling, an insanely powerful absolute idealist, seemed perfect for the strategy. Every being who managed to fit with my methods—pick the ones I didn't overtly suspect—probably spoke the same language as me, as AR might put it. Reppik slipped up in a way that I could see, that looked clearly irrational.
The first day is usually wasted—nobody wants to lynch, usually—so I was looking for anything that might get something useful out of it. So I decided to make up a way of talking, to see what we could get, and, with luck, cause someone to slip up when they saw something they didn't suspect. Which is exactly what happened with Reppik—he tried to stop the discussion, and keep control of things, I saw something that didn't fit with what I expected, and latched on to it.
Of course, my tendency to read anything touchy-feely, cuddly, or non-rational as underhanded emotional manipulation and blackmail made me suspect everyone else. After I was killed, and Ios became less rational, I started suspecting her, even. Really strongly suspecting her. The second time I suspected Eliab, and the first time it was more than a "maybe…", was when I saw on the PM box thread in AS that Dafyd was trying to PM him. Of course, by that time, I was dead.
Also, I think I may have picked the wrong game to be really and truly tired of people automatically being suspicious of Eliab simply for being Eliab. Just maybe.
AR, I would like to point out two things, in my defense: there were at least two and a half days (every time I went quiet) that I wouldn't characterize myself as confident at all (indeed, making assertions at all); indeed, if JFH hadn't made a false doctor claim and started accusing me, I might have stayed quiet that day as well. Furthermore, if you look at our voting records, you'll see that I voted for a guilty being twice while I was alive, and only voted for Joostein once—giving me the same or better voting record over the same stretch of time as everybody else. However, there is a reason why I listened to you; like I said, you saw things I missed. I'm beginning to agree that, perhaps, spreadsheets and reasoning aren't the best way through this game. As we saw, fluffiness and insanity trigger suspicion (and, I think, not just from me—I think I was just "best" able to articulate why I was suspicious of anyone or anything trying to play the World's Smallest Violin, and it always made sense to at least a few others), even when the only thing to suspect is that someone is genuinely fluffy or insane.
(Side note: it's going to be hard to remember everybody's proper names and genders again. Gwai, I know I kept bungling Codine's gender—though at least part of that is because my mental picture of him/it was of the statue I used to use as my avatar, which is intentionally ambiguous as to gender. I think at one point I thought about cycling through pronouns, or just borrowing one of the many artificially constructed gender-neutral ones, before abandoning that as something Z. would have done, but I don't know if I could keep up)
One thing I've been waiting weeks to respond to: John mentioned he would have given a lot to see my face after we booted Joostein off the bus. Let me tell you, it would have almost been worth beignets and chicory coffee to see it. I wasn't kidding about the head meeting the wall. Or the checking my PM box to make sure I wasn't actually on the other side. JFH played Joostein with such perfect insanity, the exact kind of insanity that I would (and have!) used to cover things up and conceal—was doing exactly the kinds of things I would have done if I were Possessed and trying to assert control over proceedings that weren't going the way I'd like them to—that I knew he had to be hiding something. Nobody (no, not even the person with "insane unicorn" as their title) would ever be that off-the-charts insane without having something to hide.
So much for that. I would ask the ghost of Z, whose Basque name I couldn't spell either, what he thinks, but he's busy with lunch; apparently, porkpie hats aren't actually half bad if you put enough mustard on them. I'm not sure if his offer to share with me is because it's really good mustard and everything tastes good if you put enough of it on, or if he doesn't want to have to finish his hat himself.
Regarding detectives and PM's: I'm beginning to wonder if the benefit of detectives isn't so much that they let you know who's guilty so much as they let you know who isn't. If you get someone like me who suspects (or can't read) anyone being irrational or emotional—especially when I'm in the headspace Z. came out of—having someone handy to say "no, that's just them, it's okay" would have been helpful. I know my first game, when I was one of the two detectives (and the only one that didn't get bumped off early), my clearing half the village helped more than finding any of the mafia. It also helped that nobody ever said that I couldn't PM the people I cleared…so I did. I can't say that having a counterforce of known innocents didn't help.
Now, as the designated person who had to read every post twice (first as Host, then as player), click every one of your links, fix your coding errors and double posts, and otherwise make sure you (we?) were Playing Nicely Enough even while killing each other off and accusing each other of being murderous and evil: I think Mafia may be on a break for a while. We've had two games in quick succession, and, while one of them was pretty quick, this one has been a bit Epic; perhaps giving things time to breathe wouldn't be such a bad idea. That said, I wouldn't be opposed to another mystery/role playing-type game—I think our last game of Clue went fairly well, no?—if someone could figure out something that would be SoF workable. Much as I've joked about organizing a DnD campaign (okay, I don't know if it was a joke), I don't think anything with dice rolls and individual players taking turns is going to work across multiple time zones.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
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Ios/Figment A, I think your questions have already been answered:
quote:
Originally posted by Gwai:
To add, I'd presumed Lady Celandine investigated Eliab on her first night.
and:
quote:
Originally posted by Gwai:
If we had known that, we would have made more of an effort to decide quickly.
As for the unmade assumption, I'm pretty sure most if not all of us went for the same conclusion. I have actually posed that question before, back in Ypres, but it was made clear to me that it was then a simultaneous thing.
I think we should probably make this clear at the outset in the future, just as the ability for the doctor to self-protect and serial-protect, just so everyone knows what to assume.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
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Otto's fictitious friend has been jetlag legging it around London with teal £ife offspring, where it's about 25° warmer than it is at home.
ISTM that the game was more intuitive than reasoning. Certianly later on. Otto had never travelled before and was uncertain much of the time what might be going on. I also invented detail about him based on my rather opaque, even to me, fantasy life.
Much of the time, I was feeling like the characters in Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead, particular in the company of Hophtrig. A murder mystery in the absurd theatre of ShipBus.
"The play opens with Rosencrantz and Guildenstern betting on coin flips. Rosencrantz, who bets heads each time, wins ninety-two flips in a row. The extreme unlikeliness of this event according to the laws of probability leads Guildenstern to suggest that they may be "within un-, sub- or supernatural forces".
[ 21. April 2014, 17:06: Message edited by: no prophet ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Starbug:
John, I'm curious about why you'd choose to save the 'reverse' detective, Crimson, rather than the real detective?
Because I didn't know you were the detective until you were dead. I saw your post about sitting next to me, but I thought it was role playing in the same vein as asking for bread. Even then, I remembered it as denouncing Otto; Eliab I think was the one who pointed out otherwise.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Barefoot Friar:
Ariston, will you ever trust Eliab again?
Oh, of course I will. That's the great thing about this game—who you are changes every time you play. I don't even keep the same strategy each game, lest I fall into ruts; surprisingly for me, this is the first time I've ever actually tried a full-on logical strategy. I tried playing quiet once, in Ypres; it got me killed the first day. I tried being insane once, in Australia; it got the mafia killed pretty quickly when I sold them out. The one time I was ever guilty, I faked a close character reading, "those strategies don't add up," blame Eliab, somewhat intuitive strategy; the Guardians won a flawless victory. I've been a detective twice, successfully on my first trip out, unsuccessfully when I got spotted. I've been the gamemaster before, which may be my favorite of all, creating a high-concept, complicated rules setting one time around, a minimalist and simple one the next. In the past, I've worked alongside some of the people I most sincerely wanted to see debussed this time around.
Now, I realize I change up strategies and personae pretty often, and other people may not do this as much, but, really, just because someone backstabbed you once doesn't mean they'll do it again for a long time.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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JFH, thanks for putting 2 + 2 together for me about Gwai's post and my question.
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
The second time I suspected Eliab, and the first time it was more than a "maybe…", was when I saw on the PM box thread in AS that Dafyd was trying to PM him.
I spotted that too, and it made me pretty sure -- though not sure enough to vote decisively quickly in our last vote. I think hardly anything could ever make Ios/A. feel that sure. The blast of certainty I had when I looked up Jay-Emm's other posts was like nothing I've ever experienced before, and I don't expect to ever experience it again. It made me wonder if that's how sure some people feel about God. Anyway, I had spotted Dafyd's post on the "Empty your PM box" thread, but I thought it was such an extra-game piece of evidence that it wouldn't be fair to mention it. Plus it could have other explanations -- perhaps Dafyd was PMing an Innocent Eliab to see if he was OK, given his long bus absence at that point. After misleading myself so much over Reppik's ghostly post, I didn't want to go so whole-hog over any other piece of "not supposed to normally contain information" type of post.
Here's how I feel about Hegel (having read in Hell about Ariston's Mafia-prep use for him): judging by bus-board events, apparently Hegel is frighteningly confident about everything and almost always wrong. Excellent, one more incomprehensible philosopher I don't have to feel guilty about not reading.
Eliab, I'm absolutely serious about not having read most of your last-Dimthing-night posts, and the reason for it (item # "quadruple") that I gave in Ios' last living post. At some point I may reread them, to admire the gifts of an incredibly skilled lawyer. If I ever were to walk into a courtroom and get told "Eliab is opposing counsel" I would turn around and walk out immediately and tell my lawyer: "Let's settle."
A lot of this game this time around has been frighteningly similar to the real-life stuff going on for me. It's quite uncanny. I suppose the silver lining is that it has shown me how incredibly shockingly different people really are, even when they're all Innocent and trying for the same goal, and how many deep problems those differences can cause.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
The second time I suspected Eliab, and the first time it was more than a "maybe…", was when I saw on the PM box thread in AS that Dafyd was trying to PM him.
And this may have been related, but I was our spokesperson, so ironically, it may not have been too.
[ 21. April 2014, 17:49: Message edited by: Gwai ]
Posted by Alban (# 9047) on
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An absolutely brilliant game that one. And we were so close to lynching Eliab while she was away. I wouldn't hesitate for a second climbing on board again - trusting Eliab though, loooong hesitation!
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Here's how I feel about Hegel (having read in Hell about Ariston's Mafia-prep use for him): judging by bus-board events, apparently Hegel is frighteningly confident about everything and almost always wrong. Excellent, one more incomprehensible philosopher I don't have to feel guilty about not reading.
Two things: Z's frightening confidence was him, not me (the doubt was me, not him—he may be a part of me, but he isn't me); in this overrated RL game we keep talking about, I'm about the least confident, most doubt-ridden person ever. It's a source of endless amusement to my friends. If I were a better actor, I might have been able to play it off as "acceptable losses, let's move on," which is what I actually set out intending to do, but I couldn't. In my mind, his voice is always changing depending on how he wants it to sound; in his more confident moments, he sounded like my grad school colleagues and professors, while he sounded most like me when speaking from the mustard pot.
As for Hegel, he's actually pretty cool—Nietzche, Marx, Sartre, and to some extent Mahler are just ripping him off (with Marx and Mahler adding analysis of wealth and music theory to the mix), but boy is he a bad writer. I'd recommend Peter Kalkavage's The Logic of Desire over actually diving headfirst into the Phenomenology. Note to future authors: don't discuss a horribly crucial idea at the beginning of the book by making reference to something you only talk about at the very end.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Gwai:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
The second time I suspected Eliab, and the first time it was more than a "maybe…", was when I saw on the PM box thread in AS that Dafyd was trying to PM him.
And this may have been related, but I was our spokesperson, so ironically, it may not have been too.
Well, there, you see! It turns out I was right to not go whole-hog behind it, because it could have other meanings beyond the first one that might leap to mind.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Plus it could have other explanations -- perhaps Dafyd was PMing an Innocent Eliab to see if he was OK, given his long bus absence at that point.
I was asking Eliab if he were ok. I suppose I might not have noticed his absence if he hadn't been Possessed, but as Gwai says she was the spokesperson.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
Note to future authors: don't discuss a horribly crucial idea at the beginning of the book by making reference to something you only talk about at the very end.
Oh Christ Oh Christ Oh Christ I can't stand it. I've been in agony over an email I received Saturday night which I only deciphered today made sense in light of something that was said only at the very end, and in passing. (Doesn't remove other problems with the email, but cuts the agony in half.)
OK God, you've had your laughs. I get your point. Could you cut it out now? This Life imitating Art imitating Life imitating Art thing is getting OLD.
On the bright side, fictitious A. has managed to move her Fake Work office without falling down the stairs once. Maybe things are looking up in the pratfalls-and-crazy-adventures department.
[ETA: ha, incipient pratfalls-and-crazy-adventure in the guise of a typo: I found you before the Edit window expired. Looks around fearfully wondering which other typos she has missed even while boasting about finding a typo.]
[ 21. April 2014, 18:17: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
There was one reason, and one reason only, I was disappointed to find out the combination of Ios and Otto or Hophtrig was innocent: it would have made a great solution to the Second Partridge dilemma. Was Ja'ayem trying to distract us from lynching O or H, or was he making a really cunning double bluff we'd never suspect by pointing at I? Chase the partridge, we leave the nest alone—but if we don't, we find out there was a bomb in the nest all along. No matter how it played out, the other party would have ended up looking better. It's a solution to the problem that's so clever, it couldn't possibly be right, but would it have ever been cool if it was.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
Note to future authors: don't discuss a horribly crucial idea at the beginning of the book by making reference to something you only talk about at the very end.
Oh Christ Oh Christ Oh Christ I can't stand it. I've been in agony over an email I received Saturday night which I only deciphered today made sense in light of something that was said only at the very end, and in passing. (Doesn't remove other problems with the email, but cuts the agony in half.)
OK God, you've had your laughs. I get your point. Could you cut it out now? This Life imitating Art imitating Life imitating Art thing is getting OLD.
There's nothing quite so much fun as reading (about?) Hegel on the master/slave dialectic or the ever uncertain, decision-phobic skeptic and realizing he's describing the situation on this insomnia-inducing game perfectly.
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
The blast of certainty I had when I looked up Jay-Emm's other posts was like nothing I've ever experienced before, and I don't expect to ever experience it again. It made me wonder if that's how sure some people feel about God.
I'm intrigued, was that when you decided I was guilty, decided there might be more, decided on the 2nd partridge theory?
But in the meantime I must be able to use that as an awesome reference.
quote:
Was Ja'ayem trying to distract us from lynching O or H, or was he making a really cunning double bluff we'd never suspect...
The thought of double bluffing had crossed my mind. The thought of it never being suspected hadn't. I did pick who to nominate at random so it could have happened that way.
And it was a reason to get the voting over quickly and go quiet. Any further posts would be another phase of bluff (regardless of whether the initial bit was straight, bluff or double bluff) and getting it right was beyond me.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
After reading your posts elsewhere, that was when I decided you were guilty. There was no way someone posting with the sophistication that Jay-Emm was showing on the Caribbean Reparations thread was also actually as clumsy and obtuse as Ja'ayem was appearing to be.
When you signed yourself "kettle" was when I started to suspect that there might be another layer that I wasn't seeing yet.
It was only after you had been revealed as the Sympathiser that I realized I had probably been played, and that the whole point of the exercise was to cause me (or someone) to blow up and lynch you.
It was a few days later as I was on one of my interminable drives to and from Other State, Six States Over, that I started thinking about what I might do as the Sympathiser, and came up with Second Partridge. (Criminal descendants of Ios are ready to throttle me for revealing their future strategies.)
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
This may be another argument for delaying our next game of lying, stinking criminals and misguided vigilantes. We need time to cook up new strategies and forget our old ones.
Oh, and AR: I never did get a chance to thank you for posting the blue eyes puzzle at the very beginning of the trip. I've been thinking about its solution ever since.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Glad you've liked it. The blue eyes puzzle turns out to be frighteningly apt for Mafia: In the face of incomplete information, what can you deduce from others' behaviour, knowing that they are all trying to deduce things from your own behaviour?
There is a major difference though: On the island of blue- and brown-eyed people, everyone is a perfectly logical reasoner and they all come to the correct conclusion at the same time.
I wonder what the puzzle would be like if blue/brown-eyed islanders exhibited all the varied characters that we have collectively exhibited over the past Dimthing week.
Probably either "nothing ever happens and they all live happily ever after" or "they throw things together on a heap, it turns out to be a nuclear bomb, they all blow themselves up on Day Two." Either outcome happening at pure random.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
The other question that I have no idea how to make work in this context is how you can trust other people who work completely differently than you. I really, honestly, and truly believed that Lesley and Choey were entirely guilty—it explained everything. The only thing that gave me any pause, at least at first, was that it explained things too well; there was just no way I could have gotten that lucky! Everything that the more pathos oriented characters went with fit my profile of "guilty" so well that, lacking any sort of "innocent, but they just act that way" profile (though by about the time we got to lynching Hophtrig, I tried to cook one up), I couldn't see any way they could not be guilty. Codine and Eliabulon? Logical. Dry. Reasoned. Orderly. Gave me reasons when questioned. Never dodged. May perhaps have been incomplete, but still gave reasons. It's what I was looking for, and so they fit my "innocent" profile.
So, perhaps, if there was someone who could have been cleared who wasn't choppy, who could think in a way completely different than Z/I/J, it might have been helpful. H was just close enough to how I was working (and answered my questions when I put them to him in a way that was helpful) that I eventually started using him as my Fluffdar, but, by that point, it was too late.
Maybe it's another argument for cooperation—I will never, ever spot a logic-chopping guilty character so long as they're even slightly careful, as they'll always look perfect to me—but, of course, this game discourages cooperation. If John hadn't been cleared, I would have likely been somewhat suspicious of him all game long, more so than Ios, simply because he agreed with me so readily!
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
Maybe it's another argument for cooperation—I will never, ever spot a logic-chopping guilty character so long as they're even slightly careful, as they'll always look perfect to me—but, of course, this game discourages cooperation. If John hadn't been cleared, I would have likely been somewhat suspicious of him all game long, more so than Ios, simply because he agreed with me so readily!
This is why I suck so much at being innocent. I am complete crap at suspecting any logical person, and of course anyone who is not-logical, and blatant enough for me to see them, has been seen by everyone else already!
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
On the other hand, you're completely brilliant at being guilty and appearing innocent.
The innocent don't all necessarily have to find the guilties. It's equally useful to simply not look guilty so we don't waste a turn by lynching you.
[ 21. April 2014, 19:39: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ariston, I kept having to double-check that Zapatereitxe and John The Less were cleared by unchallenged role-claim, because you both kept on saying things that seemed utterly lunatic to me.
I am going to reincarnate on the next bus trip as a loveable cuddly teddy bear who loves poetry, in homage to Hophtrig and Otto. Whether I'll be able to lay off my addiction to fruitless analysis, I don't know. I'm debating whether I can bring myself to carry through with my current idea to do all nominations and votes by random number generator. It seems it would be at least as useful as my current approach.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
On the other hand, you're completely brilliant at being guilty and appearing innocent.
The innocent don't all necessarily have to find the guilties. It's equally useful to simply not look guilty so we don't waste a turn by lynching you.
Most of my characters tend to be sometimes told they seem somewhat shady--in RL mafia games back in college and here--so when I combine that fact with the fact that you all now know I can pull off Codine-types*, I have absolutely no hopes that I'll be able to fly under you all's radar again regardless of my role!
*I pronounced his name Codine in my head because he was trying to "drug" everyone into ignoring him.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Eliab or Codine, did you have any inkling of this timing thing? Did you know or suspect that Starbug had certain knowledge of Eliabulon from a Night Two investigation, and was trying to warn us about it?
We didn't know it, but obviously as we did know that I was actually guilty, we suspected that Starbug might have been told about night two's investigation before being assassinated.
It was also possible (though rather unlikely) that I'd been the night one investigation, and we were just making shit up about her having cleared John. But from our point of view, though, it didn't really matter what she'd been told or when - the only thing that mattered was putting a spin on her words that didn't inescapably incriminate me.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
A view from the dark side:
Overall: We were mostly playing our own games throughout without very much collusion at all – so any accusation, nomination, defence or argument a player made was that person's work. We never tried to stack the pool of nominations, or concoct arguments against each other which we would not have made if innocent. We did discuss murders, although I don't think there was ever any serious argument about the choices we made. Please note, though, that my reasons for victim selection may not have been Gwai's or Wet Kipper's.
Day/night one: No lynching and Crimson murdered. This was a piece of pure luck. Crimson was my suggestion: I thought she'd be high up on any doctor's 'protect' list, but Zapaterietxe was being so active and so astute that I thought he'd probably be the protectee that night if the doctor did not protect his/her self. Basically, I thought we had a shot at taking vie out, and if you get a shot at her, you take it. Sheer good luck that she was also the inspector.
Day two: Reppik is lynched. This was tough. Zapaterietxe had made a good call for good reasons – Reppik's post did look to me like a voice in favour of less discussion, and when Zapaterietxe called him on it, I could not easily find a reason to disagree without acting in a way that I'd never have done if innocent. On day one, I had plausible reasons for voting for Joostein (we'd nominated each other), on day two, there was no such excuse. This was the one day with serious behind-the-scenes discussion amongst the Possessed: and in the end I decided that committing to a 'save Reppik' strategy was probably futile, and an unacceptable risk. It was me who suggested that Reppik make a role claim at this point (having nothing to lose) – which he did rather unwillingly. Daisy didn't fall for it, though, which was a smart move.
Night two: We went detective-hunting. No one post gave Celandine away, but she was acting most like we expected a detective to act. Hit and destroyed.
Day three: The day of insanity. Joostein was now totally focussed on me, and, of course, totally right, and Celandine's dying words were none too helpful. Fortunately she had left a hint that her first investigation was on John (would everyone have seen that if I hadn't pushed it so hard?) which was masterfully subtle on first reading, and pretty clear with the benefit of hindsight, so arguing the line that she could not be accusing me from special knowledge was plausible.
Joostein's false role call was, in retrospect, an error which sealed his fate, but I will now confess that when he posted it, I had no reason to doubt it, and came very close indeed to making a counter claim of my own. Had I done so, John would have exposed us both as liars, and I'd have been dead. The one think that stopped me claiming was the endgame condition (which I'll discuss below): once a murderer makes a false role claim, he's doomed in the long term, and we simply could not afford sacrifices. I felt I had no choice but to bluff it out.
Then John made the genuine claim, and, because I was arguing (correctly, as it turns out, though obviously I didn't care about that in the least) that Celandine had proved him innocent, making a case against Joostein became rather easier.
Night three: Both detectives dead, doctor known but capable of self-protection, three killers alive, but with my credibility having taken a hit. We wanted a kill, any kill, to get to a winning position as quickly as possible. Daisy was the best choice for a victim who would be unguarded and whose death sent no messages.
Day four: This was the fatal mistake. We needed two votes to go our way, and we'd won, so picking the targets from the thee surviving people who hadn't votes for Reppik was the way to go. We know that they were all innocent, because obviously the sympathiser was Ios. It couldn't have been clearer that it was her. The “I know the colour of your eyes” puzzle was blatantly a clue, the way she picked up every single discussion about the sympathiser and how that affected the game was another, and the fact that she was posting sensible analysis with nice helpful conclusions about the various hints that I was innocent confirmed it. My 'USS Pot to IKV Kettle' post took the opportunity for a snarky one-liner to convey “message received” to Ios as our secret ally. When she posted (to Ja'ayem):
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Still supposing you're Innocent -- console yourself for missing Reppik's guilt. Why, by your lights either you've caught the Guilty Otto and you can point to your early knowledge of his Guilt in the Reppik Tew vote, or Otto will be Innocent and you can point to your skill in fingering the Guilty Trio of the Monstrously Subtle And Devious Ios, Codine, and Eliabulon.
an already strong conviction turned to certainty. Ios was definitely the sympathiser.
And then it turned out to be Ja'ayem.
Oops.
Night four: Two killers left. Two known innocents. The tie-break rule meant that if both known innocents lasted to the end we would lose. We had to kill one. But if we hit Zapaterietxe first, we had to give up hope of ever killing John (only another known innocent could reasonably tempt him not to self-protect), and that meant both of us had to survive. That looked rather optimistic at that point. We thought that having tried for a relatively inactive player before, John's guard might be down. It wasn't.
Day five: At least we had a clear run at Choey today, following the logic that had proved so disastrously right the day before.
Night five: Nothing had changed since the previous night. It had to be Zapaterietxe or John. John might not be expecting us to go for him twice in a row. Didn't work.
Day six: I was mostly out of circulation for this one. Hophtrig, though, was still in the suspicious set of those who voted to save Reppik. Not much of a surprise to see that he had gone.
Night six: Codine's sole call on the assassination. In the absence of my bad advice, she picked right, and we got rid of the angel. We were now committed to both surviving, since we had to assume that John was effectively unkillable.
Day seven: The beginning of the end. We had to win this vote to get our last chance at murder. And it was a tough one: John was, rightly, very suspicious of me at this point, but in the end stuck to his nomination of Otto. And then it was all down to the final night.
Evening, day seven: Should we try to kill Ios or John? John had out-guessed us twice already, but would naturally incline to protecting the one person he knew was innocent. Of course, he would know that we would know that, and so if he thought he had a good idea who was the other last innocent, he might protect them instead. And if he did, he'd probably be right. Could we influence that? Only by undermining his trust in Ios. We didn't need to prove her guilty, just make John unsure enough that protecting her would be a tough decision to make. Everything I posted at that point was to that end.
Since we were going for her in the night, there wouldn't ever have been a contested vote the next day. Either she'd be dead, and we'd win, or John would protect her, and therefore know that she had to be innocent. So any attacks on each other didn't matter any more – the only thing that mattered was getting enough doubt that John wouldn't be absolutely sure of Ios's innocence and therefore guard her.
I don't know what influence (if any) we managed to achieve. I suspect it was basically a coin toss at this stage. But even a coin toss can be satisfying, if you call it right. It doesn't get much closer than that.
Ja'ayem's death was the turning point. Up to that point, I felt pretty much that things were under control. We'd done for the investigators, Reppik's loss was unfortunate but affordable, and with our friend steering the discussion in our favour as she does so well, it looked like a safe win. As soon as Ja'ayem went, and Ios suddenly wasn't on our side any more, we were up against it. I was quite surprised that we made it in the end.
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
A view from the dark side:
I was going to try the Doctor impersonation, but I'd really misjudged my comments earlier and in any case it was redundant by the time I was back.
Surprised you didn't catch me as the sympathizer earlier in that day.
I was worried at that point that I'd be murdered in the night (which would have been doubly bad).
The other worry was it was looking like I'd be lynched after Choey but before Hophtrig.
If I was third it didn't matter (we'd have won)
But if I tried for Hop and failed then questions would have been asked and you seemed precarious (after all Joostein had just been spot on except for me, and you had voted last for Reppik).
But if I could give you the credit for catching me and get the next (two) lynches fixed then you just needed to get 3 corresponding kills (and hopefully the doctor would be protecting you).
But I had hoped to be more subtle and leave both options open.
The Synth was interesting as I obviously had no idea how in control E&C were (and had to worry about them mis-targeting).
[ 21. April 2014, 21:42: Message edited by: Jay-Emm ]
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
Thoughts on the set up
First thought: “Four mafia? FFS, Dafyd, they'll absolutely walk it unless you pick utter cretins!”
Second thought: “Mafia! Woo hoo! Gwai and Wet Kipper, too? Easy win”
Third thought: “FFS, Dafyd! Two detectives and an unkillable doctor? We are so dead”
All of these thoughts were, of course, utterly wrong.
Four straight-up mafia would have been too much, but with the sympathiser dynamic and the tie-break rule, it worked. I really liked the way the sympathiser played out, and the effect it had on analysis. I like that the mafia have something to deduce as well as the town.
I don't think the inspector/detective split was significantly less good for the town than two old-style detectives. Sure, as long as both investigators and everyone they checked is still alive, their information is unreliable, but that simply won't last long enough to matter (and if it does last, the town probably has enough information to win anyway). Two detectives is damned scary from this side of the table: if we hadn't taken them down so quickly, we'd have lost.
I think an unkillable doctor played well (as this one certainly was) is incredibly strong. John was the central focus of the end game. An unkillable doctor plus the tie-break condition was the single most significant factor in determining our strategy. It meant that one of the Possessed could not win the game alone, and two possessed had to wipe out everyone but the doctor to win. If another confirmed innocent had made it to the end, we'd have needed three surviving killers.
Was that an intended effect of the rule, or was it there simply be make successful lynching a bit easier? In the past we've had games with “50+% of the vote or 50% with no unified opposition” as the threshold for lynching, which has a similar effect on voting without slanting the end-game. As it was, I think we were very luckly to win after losing Ja'ayem. I'm pleased that we did it (against solid opposition) but I'd be inclined to go a little easier on the killers in future games.
The 'unreadables' were a town advantage, though not a major one. It isn't much of a benefit to the mafia to have someone detect as 'unreadable' when there's only two of those, and one of them has to be guilty. An 'out' detective checking Reppik could have said “Reppik's unreadable – is there an innocent unreadable who'll say he's guilty?” and got a result. If she'd checked Zapaterietxe, and asked the same, she'd have a confirmed innocent – Reppik wouldn't have broken cover to sink an innocent unreadble knowing that he'd then be exposed as guilty. The real effect of having the unreadables was that Zapaterietxe could establish his innocence – a useful thing for an astute, analysis-heavy risk-taker – and constrain somewhat our choice of targets. I like having unreadables, but if they were there to limit the power of the detectives, I don't think that they did to any meaningful degree. To do that, I think you have to say “two of you are unreadable to investigation, and that has no correlation whatever to guilt and innocence” or possibly “unreadables don't have their allegience revealed on death”.
For all that, four guilty players is a lot – it meant we could safely take one casualty, that we had a potentially powerful block vote, and a lot of opportunity to steer discussion. I think it's proof of a very good game that with strong advantages on both sides, this was a knife-edge result.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
I was worried at that point that I'd be murdered in the night (which would have been doubly bad).
By my reading of the rules, had we murdered you late in the game, you might have been the critical tie-break vote if the living players had split 50/50.
It's probably evidence of my devious nature that I considered whether it would be worth killing one of the Possessed on the last night. Going for either John or Ios had, it seemed to me, a 50% chance of victory in either case. If it had looked like better than evens that John would vote to lynch Ios than me or Codine (which, in fact, it didn't) we could have murdered the other Possessed, waited for the vote to go against Ios the next day, and then have had a dead-Possessed in the wings to break the inevitably tied one-against-one vote our way. I dismissed it as a losing play, but it would have been a wonderfully insane plan.
The other batshit-crazy scheme I had waiting in the wings if you'd survived to the end was that if we were ever faced with the situation that the Possessed would definitely win if they murdered an innocent but probably lose if they got their own sympathiser would have been to have claimed to be a sympathiser myself: then we'd either have won if we'd killed an innocent, or exposed my claim as a lie by hitting the real sympathiser, which I could then explain away as a successful deception of the killers only explicable if I'd been innocent. That circumstances for that one never arose, though.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
Surprised you didn't catch me as the sympathizer earlier in that day.
I never even considered it. The sympathiser was Ios. It had to be. Nothing else made sense.
So saying "the sympathiser must have voted to save Reppik" was plausible, logical, and completely safe. If people went for it, we were guaranteed to get an innocent.
We could not have been more wrong.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
Day three: The day of insanity. Joostein was now totally focussed on me, and, of course, totally right, and Celandine's dying words were none too helpful. Fortunately she had left a hint that her first investigation was on John (would everyone have seen that if I hadn't pushed it so hard?) which was masterfully subtle on first reading, and pretty clear with the benefit of hindsight, so arguing the line that she could not be accusing me from special knowledge was plausible.
Joostein's false role call was, in retrospect, an error which sealed his fate, but I will now confess that when he posted it, I had no reason to doubt it, and came very close indeed to making a counter claim of my own. Had I done so, John would have exposed us both as liars, and I'd have been dead. The one think that stopped me claiming was the endgame condition (which I'll discuss below): once a murderer makes a false role claim, he's doomed in the long term, and we simply could not afford sacrifices. I felt I had no choice but to bluff it out.
Then John made the genuine claim, and, because I was arguing (correctly, as it turns out, though obviously I didn't care about that in the least) that Celandine had proved him innocent, making a case against Joostein became rather easier.
I'd love to discuss this day more, both from an actual impact view as well as a general tactics analysis one.
To begin with, you must take me on my word that the plan was not an error because I died - I was literally dead certain I'd be gone in a couple of days due to my vote against Otto when Reppik was thrown out, there seemed very little coming back from that. So I thought I'd make it worth it - as I stated a couple of times, I was fully prepared to go first if that meant you'd gone second, which I also thought would happen.
There's much more to the false claim than just triggering one of yours, I feel, even if it was almost successful. Also, I figured, had there been a counterclaim even by a sympathizer I would've gotten a Possessed in exchange for my life, which seemed reasonable given my certainty of being on my way out and also of not being able to convince anyone that you, freaking Gwai and the one who was really most Sympathizing with you, Zapa, were guilty. I was wrong about the sympathizer and about Zapa, but killing all of you off would've ended the game, and I'm going to claim some sort of moral victory for now.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
...John The Less... kept on saying things that seemed utterly lunatic to me.
Like what?
Also,
quote:
Originally posted by Eliab:
I dismissed it as a losing play, but it would have been a wonderfully insane plan.
I PM'ed Dafyd on Saturday to ask that very question, because I was worried about it. I never got an answer, which just made me the more worried.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
I'd love to discuss this day more, both from an actual impact view as well as a general tactics analysis one.
To begin with, you must take me on my word that the plan was not an error because I died - I was literally dead certain I'd be gone in a couple of days due to my vote against Otto when Reppik was thrown out, there seemed very little coming back from that. So I thought I'd make it worth it - as I stated a couple of times, I was fully prepared to go first if that meant you'd gone second, which I also thought would happen.
There's much more to the false claim than just triggering one of yours, I feel, even if it was almost successful. Also, I figured, had there been a counterclaim even by a sympathizer I would've gotten a Possessed in exchange for my life, which seemed reasonable given my certainty of being on my way out and also of not being able to convince anyone that you, freaking Gwai and the one who was really most Sympathizing with you, Zapa, were guilty. I was wrong about the sympathizer and about Zapa, but killing all of you off would've ended the game, and I'm going to claim some sort of moral victory for now.
I have read of innocent false role claims before, but I missed the bit where it would be helpful. Thus I was at first dubious about your claim, but I still thought you were probably innocent. I went back and forth throughout that day, and I ultimately voted to lynch you, but the whole time in the back of my mind there was a niggling little detail about how you very well could be innocent. But somehow Eliab wiggled out of it and we lost focus.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
John, I'm sorry, I just can't remember things you said that seemed suspicious. Oh yes here's one: the time late in the game when you suspected Zapa, after his long-unchallenged role claim had shown him innocent.
This behavior -- posting suspicions of role-claimed proven innocent Zapa -- was also what made me very suspicious of Choey. She then posted when I questioned her "oh yes of course he's innocent", but that seemed like a strange way for an innocent to act, to have even made the accusation to start with, without even hedging it with something like "I know this will seem strange given the role claim..." Or "I know it's low odds but let's consider..." or something.
Your completely unannounced flip-flop back to Otto in our final vote was another. There have been others but I don't remember them.
[ 22. April 2014, 00:27: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
John, I'm sorry, I just can't remember things you said that seemed suspicious. Oh yes here's one: the time late in the game when you suspected Zapa, after his long-unchallenged role claim had shown him innocent.
This behavior -- posting suspicions of role-claimed proven innocent Zapa -- was also what made me very suspicious of Choey. She then posted when I questioned her "oh yes of course he's innocent", but that seemed like a strange way for an innocent to act, to have even made the accusation to start with, without even hedging it with something like "I know this will seem strange given the role claim..." Or "I know it's low odds but let's consider..." or something.
Your completely unannounced flip-flop back to Otto in our final vote was another. There have been others but I don't remember them.
Ah, I see. Well, I'm sure I had reasons for all of them, but looking back they aren't very good ones. Like the Otto vote. I wasn't sure which one to choose, so I went back with Zapaterietxe and my nomination (I was kind of ticked off at myself for nominating people and not following through with a vote). Never mind that Eliabulon smelled stinkier or that Zapaterietxe had been wrong umpteen 'leven times by then. Now it looks crazy, but it made sense to me.
I think what I've learned is that I need to stop voting so quickly, even when I think I'm going to be busy later. Turned out I could have voted a bit later and ended up making a better decision. I also need to read everything from the previous day's lynching to the current, so that I can get a better feel for what is happening; I was so busy burying myself in the early week transcripts I forgot to check the recent ones too.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I expect we all did what seemed best and most sensible to us at the time, even if in retrospect it might be hard to capture. Look at all the holes Eliabulon was poking (*) in my completely honest attempts to explain my own reasoning.
(*) at least I gather he was poking holes; I haven't read any of it more than to flick my eye over, see it's Eliabulon in attack mode, and move on.
[ 22. April 2014, 00:45: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
:
About that: I quickly picked up he was aiming all of that at me; he didn't care what you said or didn't say. Then I saw your thread in All Saints and I thought, "Oh crud, this is going to be fun." I wanted you to know I trusted you, but I wanted him to think I might be protecting him (so that they would come after me instead of you). I couldn't think of a way to do that, so I tried to keep quiet. Not reading it at the time was a smart idea, even without counting your AS thread. Even in the best of circumstances you might have given him even more to throw at me.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
I expect we all did what seemed best and most sensible to us at the time, even if in retrospect it might be hard to capture. Look at all the holes Eliabulon was poking (*) in my completely honest attempts to explain my own reasoning.
(*) at least I gather he was poking holes; I haven't read any of it more than to flick my eye over, see it's Eliabulon in attack mode, and move on.
I had the very same approach to replying to Zapa on That Day. I did it for a bit, but noticed my odds, the way things were turning, and that I was up against Zapa and Eliabulon and pretty quickly gave up.
Also, I'd like to apologise to players and hosts for the mess that is the manifesto. It was an overreach of monumental proportions, and 12 hours work wasted because I couldn't get the focus down properly. I had hoped to smack your teeth in and tie you all to taking off Eliabulon, but it seems I stumbled on my own untied shoelaces due to my misfocus. Ah well.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
What's a good game of Mafia without a few good speeches?
Anyway, your death scene made up for it. As was mentioned, that was epic.
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on
:
Crimson’s algorithms are so staggeringly intelligent that they have worked out how to reassemble themselves enough to communicate again:
I don’t really regret appealing for protection.
I figured my life expectancy was probably going to be short anyway. It’s not the first time I have been first murder victim, which I don’t mind so much – it’s what I get for being good at this game and in anyone else’s position I would murder me first as well
. That being the case, I decided that appealing to the doctor wasn’t really putting me in that much additional danger and might help the innocent team.
I was wrong about this but specifically, the player who immediately rang up alarm bells to me was Ariston the unspellable, for being so bloody talkative. He seemed to be trying very hard to take control of the game and I wanted to know what he was up to. Since he has in the past been responsible for killing me first night out, I suspected that if he was guilty he would probably try to do the same thing again. Turns out he wasn’t a killer, but Eliab had the same idea… Oh well.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
I cannot believe how the villains got so many of us to do their dirty work for them. Apart from the fact none of us really wanted to believe Eliab could be Mafia - we all knew if that were so we would be in deep roopoo. And we were.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
2 thoughts:
First, La Vie, I think you should've asked straight out for help. The more I think about it, the more I think that at least the two sheriffs should role-claim straight away. The possible false claims will be costly to the mafia, and limiting the protection pool to 3 will mean it's a very risky strategy for hard-pressed mafioso to go after one of the sheriffs. I think it's especially important for high-profile players as yourself, likely to be taken out anyway and to whom a role-claim would be devastating if false because it takes away your greatest asset, your ability to lie your way through freaking anything. Yes, Eliab, I'm looking at you.
Which leads me to the second point I thought I'd make. John/Bearfoot Friar stated he felt cajoled into claiming to be the doctor. I was aware of that risk when I did the false role-claim, but I thought it worth it. There's a whole lot of calculation behind that move, looking at potential effects, and that was one of them: clearing people.
Whereas the Mafia took Ios to be the sympathizer, nobody else really questioned her reaction to supposedly all hell breaking loose, meaning she was more or less cleared. Zapa could be cleared way too late, after my death, and I hadn't thought of that, but division created a camp where we had a few people who could be expected to be the aims of the mafia but who were also completely trustworthy. I think that was important. Even if Choey went for Zapa occasionally, we saved a lot of fog, noise, patience and thought-power by not always having to discount the 60-70% trust rate for every single player. And it indirectly led to the coin-toss, given the great trust in Ios. For the Mafia, division, limited thought-power and fog is a great asset. Taking a bit of it away can mean the only safe hits are those that cost them the same resources, like killing Daisy meant no talking each day about how she could be totally guilty and sneaky.
That is, of course, as long as nobody places full and total trust in the mafioso, especially not somebody who's cleared and extremely vocal. Not that we'd know anyone like that, of course.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
I'd also like to add that this thread now counts for 10 % of all my posts on the Ship.
And Banner Lady, I think you're right. I was wondering about why people dismissed Eliab's guilt as a nightmare scenario "in which case we're doomed anyway", especially in combination with a guilty Zapa or Codine. I suppose it's tied to how greatly they played innocent. While I myself was not tricked (though Jay-Emm had me completely fooled, but then again his play evaded Eliab as well), but to everyone else it seems there was just nothing to go on regarding the Evil Pair, so it would be both nightmare and masterful which seemed improbable or something.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
I love the insane idea of a mafia sacrifice. I admit that it never occurred to me, but how delightful.
And yeah we were rather dense about the sympathizer. I think we both partially thought Ios would be so evil as the sympathizer, and we'd be so set, so we wishful-thought it.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
I'm quite regretful in retrospect that I was so convinced that Eliabulon and Codine were Innocent that they were convinced I was the Sympathiser
. On the other hand I am quite tickled to have been the source of what must have a been a major WTF moment for E & C when Ja'ayem was revealed as the Sympathiser
.
Eliab, I interpreted your Pot/Kettle remark to be saying that my comment to Gwai (about being able to say the most innocent sounding things while being completely guilty) was like the pot calling the kettle black. It never occurred to me that you might actually be trying to communicate to me.
[ 22. April 2014, 13:56: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
It was kind of amusing after I was dead to see Ios go from not suspecting those two and waffling to pressing Second Partridge and leading the charge against Eliab. I thought I was an utter fool for having trusted her; suddenly, I saw through her deceptions, understood why she had never been willing to stick her neck out and take risks, and figured out who had killed me. After all, what motive would Eliabulon have for wanting me dead? Now that Z was dead, Ios could engage in Grafinnchasing all she wanted.
…Nope, that was just her. The waffling wasn't a smokescreen, the recapitulation of the archives wasn't just the Possessed making as much of an effort to stay alive as we were, and me being killed rather than her was just a tactical error on the part of the Possessed.
I mean, really. As much flak as I've been getting for insufficiently suspecting Eliabulon (though I notice I suspected Codine less—again, the hat existed for a reason), what motive would the Possessed have had for killing off me?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
My theory: They killed you because you were a known Innocent, and as the pool of living bus riders got very small, E & C needed the still-living Innocents in the small remaining pool to be ones on whom they could throw doubt.
For example, on that last night when Eliabulon was frantically digging up as much dirt as he could find on me, just to shake John's confidence: that could never have worked if you were alive instead of me.
Posted by Gwai (# 11076) on
:
I can confirm that that is indeed why we killed you. You were an innocent with an undisputed claim; not as dangerous as a doctor, but more dangerous than anyone else.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
If Zapa really couldn't see the logics of taking out cleared innocents, then he really hasn't studied past Eliabulons beyond the fact that they tend to die, no matter guilty or not. I'm actually surprised - that hat seems to have come in a somewhat smaller size than I'd expected from previous readings of yours...
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
It makes sense, sure, but it's just not what I would have done. Like I think I said elsewhere, I was never quite sure why anyone took my role claim at all seriously—I certainly never gave it any weight. It's the most meaningless and easily disputed claim of all to make.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
Yes, but to quote Dire Straits, "Two men says they're Jesus, one of them must be wrong."
It's terribly expensive to spend mafioso on making false claims, quite simply. It's also very cheap to check them out by sacrificing one of them, and if wrong then taking the other next day. That's also another foundation for my own false claim. Anything that's identifiable as unique is too easy to achieve a 50 % hit rate which is perfectly affordable in most cases for the townspeople.
Posted by Banner Lady (# 10505) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
Even if Choey went for Zapa occasionally, we saved a lot of fog, noise, patience and thought-power by not always having to discount the 60-70% trust rate for every single player.
That is, of course, as long as nobody places full and total trust in the mafioso, especially not somebody who's cleared and extremely vocal. Not that we'd know anyone like that, of course.
Yes, I did go for Zapa occasionally, but only after he went all out for me. As an innocent, being badgered by questions like "Why are you still even alive" followed by accusations that I hadn't answered his "reasonable" questions had me wanting to punch his lights out. The mafia must have been chuckling all the way to the winning post - especially when I added to the glee by repeatedly nominating Hophtrig (sorry Alban).
But I was right about Codine. As for a mafia sacrifice - yes, it has been done before, and I did point out the possibility early on. Sometimes things that make no sense are the biggest clue of all.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
:
Ariston, am I understanding you correctly that you chose a personality for Zapa, and then you played that personality full tilt, regardless of Ariston yourself might believe? No wonder I often thought Zapa seemed Possessed (except the unchallenged role claim was to me good proof that he was Innocent). That kind of play seems to me something a Mafia member does, not a Townsperson.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
:
Pretty much. Try out new strategies, see what works, see what doesn't—I wouldn't say there was anything I didn't believe, but I was trying to interpret and work with evidence and interactions in ways I wouldn't normally. Trying to be absolutely, perfectly, unswervingly rational, letting out my inner Purg denizen or the people I knew in grad school (heck, was in grad school, and to some extent still am), presetting filters and interpretive schema to discount hunches and intuition but favor close readings of texts.
Why would I want to play the game the same way each time? That'd be boring. Even if everything had gone absolutely perfectly, I'd never use this same strategy again, and not just because (surprisingly!)* it seemed to hack people off.
*Now I'm wondering if my RL experiences are weirder than I thought. Like I said, Z is in many ways (not the fun, creative ones) based on myself and my colleagues when I was in grad school, many of whom I still work with now, and that sort of questioning, looking for holes in arguments, and following after any sort of weakness or unparsed assumption was/is what passed/passes for talking about the weather.
[ 22. April 2014, 21:59: Message edited by: Ariston ]
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Banner Lady:
quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
Even if Choey went for Zapa occasionally, we saved a lot of fog, noise, patience and thought-power by not always having to discount the 60-70% trust rate for every single player.
That is, of course, as long as nobody places full and total trust in the mafioso, especially not somebody who's cleared and extremely vocal. Not that we'd know anyone like that, of course.
Yes, I did go for Zapa occasionally, but only after he went all out for me. As an innocent, being badgered by questions like "Why are you still even alive" followed by accusations that I hadn't answered his "reasonable" questions had me wanting to punch his lights out. The mafia must have been chuckling all the way to the winning post - especially when I added to the glee by repeatedly nominating Hophtrig (sorry Alban).
.
As someone who had only played one game before this, and having been bumped off the on night one after having pretty much done nothing, I honestly did wonder (in this round) if bumping off newbie innocents who hadn't learned how to argue their way out of a nomination was an actual stratagy. So yeah, after I bailed, guess who I was the most convinced was a mafioso, definitely, no question in my mind?
As to why I bailed- I was just entering a real life round of job interviews, and decided it was a bad idea for me to volunteer for a situation where people would say thing like " are you really that stupid/useless?" to me. I needed all the confidence I could muster-- ergo mafia= bad idea. While I remember the pirate version being blustery, i guess I didn't observe long enough after I was bumped to see how intense it gets.
If some of y'all are interested in a d and d esque type game, I would be very interested- I think I would do much better in a setting where there was a mutual sense if having each other's backs, for the most part.
[ 22. April 2014, 23:11: Message edited by: Kelly Alves ]
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
:
quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Ariston, am I understanding you correctly that you chose a personality for Zapa, and then you played that personality full tilt, regardless of Ariston yourself might believe? No wonder I often thought Zapa seemed Possessed (except the unchallenged role claim was to me good proof that he was Innocent). That kind of play seems to me something a Mafia member does, not a Townsperson.
This is very, very true. I think people do approach the game differently though. This is something I think we should discuss, either on this thread or the other, set-up one - because quite frankly, it wouldn't be the first time I'd see an "would this person act like that"-argument. I mean, who actually argued that Eliab was innocent because he acted the same way he always does? Also, if you get away with that argument at universities, I'm worried.
I think most of all, I entered this game with a slight fatigue at the thought that there is one single way to think and reason, and I think the game kind of proved my bias. It's like sometimes overly reliance on logics in this game really ends up stumbling on the fact that the explanations could be many because we do make choices amongst strategies and justifications that are all somewhat logically coherent.
Look at my post before voting for Otto - I make an argument that is logically coherent, but it raised quite some questions and accusations and the logics didn't buy me much leeway from Zapa - I think he was rather confirming his unstated biases constantly. Which is sort of why I'm tired of academic discussions, it so often seems to end up being a case of pick any side and just hurl anything you can grab at the other. This may be more true in Humanities and Social Sciences than in Natural Sciences, but sometimes I fear even there it's not uncommon. This may be a historian's typical perspective of things, of course.
I find it very, very interesting the way our personal experiences and frustrations lead to cognitive biases, though. Of course, I was the one seeing it all pretty clearly, for once, except for not understanding how to reach through to Zapa. I still don't think I could, possibly no one could except the proven innocents, and hardly even them. As I think I pointed out, or wanted to point out, at some point there has to be a clear awareness of what it would take to prove oneself wrong. (I foorget the näme oof this cooncept in yoour stränge toongue.) A fluffy feeling that one's questions is being answered is not a very good or logical such, but then again that may be what drives most academics.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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[cross-posted with JFH, and with Kelly's edit.]
Ariston, what were you in graduate school for?
Finding logical holes to poke has pretty much nothing to do on this tour with whether someone was Innocent or Guilty. Look at all the holes Eliabulon was poking in my completely Innocent statements and explanations.
I think logic can be used in an inhumane manner.
When you were attacking Choey, I was going to try to ask you to consider whether you might be wrong and whether Choey might simply think about things and react to things very differently than you do. I was too doubtful though and never managed to say it. But considering that myself was why I was feeling 50-50 on Choey when the vote came. It can be a big failing to be so convinced of something and not consider other ways of looking at it. No matter if it came out of a big hyperlogical brain; it could still be wrong.
This is more fundamental to why I don't think I want to bother reading Hegel: apparently that kind of obsession with logic goes along with a rejection of compassion, at least judging by what you've described.
Here's an example of a failure to communicate: Natural Law and Playing God thread in Purg. I posted three times, and the third time was to bow out because they're busy playing Logic and Philosophy there, and I can't do that. My poor Humane contribution is just so much logic fodder for them. Russ is very nicely trying to engage, but I can't engage on his logic/philosophy terms.
[ 22. April 2014, 23:30: Message edited by: Autenrieth Road ]
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
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There's an answer to this, but…it'd involve inadmissible and personal premises, it's not something I'd post in public anyway, and certainly not when we're enjoying a well-earned gloat at my expense.
Not that I'm complaining, mind you; my experiment didn't work, so a bit of "aren't you stupid, neener neener!" is, I suppose, perfectly fair.
[ 23. April 2014, 02:51: Message edited by: Ariston ]
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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I don't mean to be gloating. I'm investigating, I think. PM me if you like.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
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PM writing.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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Early in the tour, Ios was reading Machiavelli. Well, more like just reading the title of the one book of Machiavelli's she's heard of. Here by the Sapphire Falls she has found this link, which leads to a wonderful and fantastic world of crazy goings on.
Just in case anyone is feeling withdrawal pangs now that Dimthing Week is over.
Florence under the Medicis, have we had any adventures there?
Ariston, I am wondering why you say Mafia destroys trust among the players. I can see that it does, but what is the mechanism?
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
Early in the tour, Ios was reading Machiavelli. Well, more like just reading the title of the one book of Machiavelli's she's heard of. Here by the Sapphire Falls she has found this link, which leads to a wonderful and fantastic world of crazy goings on.
Just in case anyone is feeling withdrawal pangs now that Dimthing Week is over.
Florence under the Medicis, have we had any adventures there?
Ariston, I am wondering why you say Mafia destroys trust among the players. I can see that it does, but what is the mechanism?
Heeheeeheeeeeeeee. Machiavelli. Misunderstood (probably), or just too practical for his own good (also probable)? Gotta love him. The article(s) isn't/aren't bad either, even if I have my quibbles about how Aquinas and Hobbes were interpreted, which I Would.
Nothing in Florence yet—I think the closest we've ever come is 3rd Crusade Constantinople—but I'm wondering if we couldn't use a break from Mafia for a bit, at least until heads clear, new grudges become old grudges, and we're done talking things over (as if!). Something else, however, I'd love to see, if only to have some variety to add to the rotation. I know we've done Cluedo before (which was something of an, um, smash hit for at least one member of the party…and involved me putting Eliab in cuffs and getting sent running to the brain bleach in return. It may be the only time anyone on the Ship has had to apologize to Angela Merkel) Something similarly nutty would be welcome.
As for Mafia destroying trust…to put it simply, I think it encourages paranoia and grudges. When you know that somebody, and probably several somebodies, have to be lying to you, you start looking for anything that looks like a lie, something that makes you suspicious—anything that makes you suspicious. Anything at all. Everybody has different triggers (I think anyone making an appeal to being friendly is probably going to ask their good friend for a loan just 'til next payday with their next breath); get enough of them in a room, and it's Funtime. It's part of why it's so much more fun being the baddies—watching people mistrust each other and be paranoid (perhaps with a bit of your own help) is ever so much more enjoyable than being mistrustful and paranoid yourself.
{I hate parentheses}
[ 23. April 2014, 06:26: Message edited by: Ariston ]
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
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I would be really interested in a more co-op based game, Kelly. Only after appropriate grovelling to the hosts, of course. I suppose they could be banned from starting new threads on your turf, Styx, if they don't approve, but somehow I don't think that threat is quite so menacing as you might think.
Posted by Jay-Emm (# 11411) on
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quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
I would be really interested in a more co-op based game, Kelly.
And me, or one where there's more evidence to work from. I've got a few ideas buzzing about how it should feel but none that quite work.
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
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I did discover that online stats generators and dice rolling programs exist-- the problem is, no matter how you slice it, some sort of honor code would have to come into play at some point.
I am sure I don't have to explain the problem with that.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
I'm wondering if we couldn't use a break from Mafia for a bit, at least until heads clear, new grudges become old grudges, and we're done talking things over (as if!).
You've said this a couple times, and I'm getting the impression that "a bit" means "way more than two or three weeks". I'm not questioning your Hostly Decision, but I am asking for some clarification. Is it one of those things that if I have to ask it's too soon?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Kelly Alves:
I did discover that online stats generators and dice rolling programs exist-- the problem is, no matter how you slice it, some sort of honor code would have to come into play at some point.
I am sure I don't have to explain the problem with that.
Why would an honor code have to come into play at all for the use of stats generators and dice rolling programs? And if it does (which I don't understand), why would there be a problem? We all observe the honor code of live Innocents not PMing each other.
I'm Completely Puzzled. I think somehow I must be missing something totally obvious.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
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You won't be when you meet my gnome bard with maxed out stats whose attacks, even the most improbable, always attack, but who is able to dodge having a dragon stomp on him. Luck of the dice roll, donchaknow.
As for how long until the next game of Mafia: if people are already ready, I wouldn't say no—but I wouldn't want it to get stale. Also, a bit of variety isn't a bad thing so far as I'm concerned.
Posted by Barefoot Friar (# 13100) on
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True! I'm down for D'n'D... never have played that before. Maybe I can rock it. ;D
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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Ah -- dice for an online DnD? I was thinking they were somehow meant for Mafia.
I'm happy to do anything. It would be interesting to play a game that brings out some different aspects of human nature.
Kelly, I think this Mafia trip was a crucible of insanity and intensity in ways that I don't remember any previous Mafia trip being. No idea if this was a one-time aberration or the herald of the New Normal.
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
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Also never played, but really excited about it now.
As for Mafia, I could also see that wait for a while, maybe at least the equivalent of the time this last game took - 2 months or so. After that, we'll see. It mustn't be too long though, we need to preserve this moment in which everyone trusts me and my judgment completely. Then again, in the game before this one I died on the first night. That sucks. Crimson, can I also get a cool title like the Red Cat Goddess? Like, I don't know, the Kamikaze Viking or something?
(Also, it should be known that the reason Joostein was Norwegian is because Swedes make jokes about Norwegians being generally slow in the mind, and Joostein was supposed to be an all-out id kind of character. That failed pretty quickly. Ah well.)
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Autenrieth Road:
quote:
Originally posted by Kelly Alves:
I did discover that online stats generators and dice rolling programs exist-- the problem is, no matter how you slice it, some sort of honor code would have to come into play at some point.
I am sure I don't have to explain the problem with that.
Why would an honor code have to come into play at all for the use of stats generators and dice rolling programs? And if it does (which I don't understand), why would there be a problem? We all observe the honor code of live Innocents not PMing each other.
I'm Completely Puzzled. I think somehow I must be missing something totally obvious.
You have to report what you rolled to the thread. You could say you rolled anything. Even if you provided a screenshot, you could roll and re roll till you got what you wanted. I was just kidding about that being a problem, but we would have to cross our hearts and promise not to do stuff like that.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
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And what would a chaotic neutral character say to having to do that?
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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Thanks, Kelly. I think my big puzzle was that I was thinking Mafia, but DnD was what was meant.
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
And what would a chaotic neutral character say to having to do that?
Doesn't matter what the character would say, the player better damn well be lawful good!
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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"lawful good" -- are we all to be deontologists then in the next game?
(I am about to become a terrible menace: Part III of the linked Machiavelli series is on Ethics: Virtue Ethics, Deontology, and Consequentialism. And I actually understood what was being talked about! So now I am a child exhilerated on Easter morning with a basket of lovely new eggs to play with. (Christmas morning is too culturally fraught to be a time of unalloyed joy for me, but I have just discovered that Easter, especially after an Orthodox Easter overnight service, is delightfully wonderful.))
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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I wonder if we could crowdsource our Mafia strategy (of course understanding that it will be awhile until we play Mafia again).
I suppose though that part of the fiendish charm of Mafia is that advice about your strategy only comes from within a small closed community, an unknown 25% of whom are untrustworthy.
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
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Whereas in the traditional roleplaying situation, the players are 100% united against the evil trecherous Game Master
Is this worth a thread of its own? Constructing a ship- friendly RPG? I would be more than happy to contribute to that discussion.
Posted by Dafyd (# 5549) on
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There are some RPGs that are diceless. I've never played any of them though. There's one called Nobilis which is best described as Neil Gaiman's Sandman the roleplaying game.
Posted by Eliab (# 9153) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Ariston:
I know we've done Cluedo before (which was something of an, um, smash hit for at least one member of the party…and involved me putting Eliab in cuffs and getting sent running to the brain bleach in return. It may be the only time anyone on the Ship has had to apologize to Angela Merkel) Something similarly nutty would be welcome.
I remember that! I think that just about every post on that thread I was thinking "OK, what's about the most crass and odious thing Austin Eliab would say next..." It was a lot of fun. I was rather proud of that line about Chancellor Merkel ("Christ, I swear that woman could spit out your DNA fingerprint..."), although unfortunately I have yet to find an occasion to employ it in real life.
Posted by Ariston (# 10894) on
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quote:
Originally posted by Kelly Alves:
Whereas in the traditional roleplaying situation, the players are 100% united against the evil trecherous Game Master
Is this worth a thread of its own? Constructing a ship- friendly RPG? I would be more than happy to contribute to that discussion.
On the one hand, yes. On the other hand, yes. On the third hand, we've been discussing stuff so much here I don't see that we have to move the discussion, unless we're trying to construct one from scratch. In that case, it'd just make sense to start fresh, but keep tangents going from here.
Posted by Autenrieth Road (# 10509) on
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Keeping the RPG (or next other game) discussion here would continue this thread's precedent for being the craziest Mafia thread ever. A not unworthy goal.
However: Moving the discussion to its own thread with an informative title would mean more people would see it.
I move we move it.
Posted by no prophet (# 15560) on
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A lot of discussion during the time I have been travelling as dead Otto & RL me.
I think that it is logically possible to reason one's way into illogic. I was an under confident player, and in hindsight shld have stuck to my belief one I thought Codine and Eliabulon were guilty. I couldn't see however how to take the focus off of Otto. Hophtrig's early targetting of me also misdirected me.
I have the distinct sense that most other players are more analytical whereas I operate intuitively. I enjoyed the game and laughed a lot, though my second distinct sense is that because I am less analytical this clashes. Hophtrig felt like Otto's comrade.
Posted by la vie en rouge (# 10688) on
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quote:
Originally posted by JFH:
Crimson, can I also get a cool title like the Red Cat Goddess? Like, I don't know, the Kamikaze Viking or something?
To be fair, I didn’t bestow the title Red Cat Goddess on myself. That was Sylvander’s doing. (He also came up with the delightful moniker of my other alter ego, mafia prima donna Silvia Conspiratia Screwtape-Berlusconi, who hasn’t been out to play for a while.)
But since it looks like it would make you happy:
The skies above Dimthing are rent asunder by a scarlet-tinged lightning strike. There are gasps of awe as the tremendous scarab-drawn chariot descends. Amun-Rouge-Ra, the Red Cat Goddess herself, alights and is presented with the traditional votive ruby-encrusted bowl of milk. She beckons to the spirit of the Norwegian and he approaches trembling.
“Thou art bravehearted, bearer of the bloont objectimoom. Thou hast struggled valiantly against the tribe of Eliab, which ever was the nemesis of the house of the Red Cat. Henceforth, I name thee Lord Moose the Fatal, Sovereign of all Vikings.”
Posted by JFH (# 14794) on
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quote:
Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
But since it looks like it would make you happy:
(...)
“Thou art bravehearted, bearer of the bloont objectimoom. Thou hast struggled valiantly against the tribe of Eliab, which ever was the nemesis of the house of the Red Cat. Henceforth, I name thee Lord Moose the Fatal, Sovereign of all Vikings.”
I love the smell of satiated vainglory in the morning; smells just about as good as victory eluded. Given ever present excessive need of affirmation and attention, even better, actually.
Ta muchly!
// Lord Moose the Fatal
Posted by Kelly Alves (# 2522) on
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RPG thread started!
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