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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Purgatory: In, out, in, out; EU Referendum thread.
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Matt Black
Shipmate
# 2210
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Posted
And so they're off...or maybe not quite yet. We might have a 'deal' on the renegotiation of the UK's membership of the EU (subject to this being ratified by all the other member states on 18th-19th February) in which case we might have a referendum as early as 23rd June this year. A large number of unknown factors prevail however, some but by no means all of which I set out below (feel free to answer as best you can plus add your own questions with answers if possible! My questions betray something of my own biases.):
1. Is this a 'deal' at all? Has Cameron actually secured anything of substance even if everyone else agrees it in a fortnight - will it make any difference?
2. Should Cameron perhaps have concentrated more on negotiations aimed at reforming core EU institutions to eg: address the democratic deficit inherent in the EU stuctures?
3. Will the other member states sign up to the deal and, if so, at what price? Will Greece, for example, demand a further debt 'haircut' and/ or greater help with the refugee crisis?
4. Who will lead the 'out' campaign in the UK? Who should?
5. Will the timing of the referendum affect the outcome eg: if in summer at the peak of the 'Mediterranean crossing season', will that queer the pitch?
6. Finally, but perhaps most importantly, how would you vote?
Over to you!
[ 05. December 2016, 00:44: Message edited by: Gwai ]
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"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)
Posts: 14304 | From: Hampshire, UK | Registered: Jan 2002
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
1. Is this a 'deal' at all? Has Cameron actually secured anything of substance even if everyone else agrees it in a fortnight - will it make any difference?
It isn't a deal until everyone else agrees - currently it's a proposal. And, from what I've seen (not yet having had a chance to read the detail) it's mere tinkering with the current conditions. Probably the most substantive bit I've seen are the steps to reduce the disadvantages of businesses that do not operate in the Eurozone. Restrictions on benefits to migrants will probably make a slight reduction on the benefits bill, but won't deter migration since the benefits do not figure into the migrants thinking.
quote:
2. Should Cameron perhaps have concentrated more on negotiations aimed at reforming core EU institutions to eg: address the democratic deficit inherent in the EU stuctures?
I would certainly prefer to see major reform of EU institutions. But, since what I would want to see is greater powers to the European Parliament at the expense of both the Commission and national parliaments (by whatever name) Cameron was never going to push for that when the Eurosceptic wing of his party (and the neo-fascist groups) are pushing him to reduce the power of European institutions and increasing the powers of Westminster.
quote:
3. Will the other member states sign up to the deal and, if so, at what price? Will Greece, for example, demand a further debt 'haircut' and/ or greater help with the refugee crisis?
I've no idea. If they don't sign up, or make demands that can't be met, then the deal is dead in the water and Cameron has a lot of egg on his face (to which I won't object, except that it will play into the hands of the Eurosceptics and probably increase support for getting out of the EU).
quote:
5. Will the timing of the referendum affect the outcome eg: if in summer at the peak of the 'Mediterranean crossing season', will that queer the pitch?
Timing will affect the referendum, I can't see how it won't. The suggested June date is, IMO, too close to other elections in the UK to allow a reasonable debate of the issues - and, will also likely unfavourably influence the other elections, with greater prominance given to the European aspects of policies over and against the issues that would have greater impact on the electorate for those elections. So, the UK election cycle suggests an autumn referendum.
quote:
6. Finally, but perhaps most importantly, how would you vote?
With a cross on a piece of paper.
[ 03. February 2016, 10:33: Message edited by: Alan Cresswell ]
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
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Boogie
Boogie on down!
# 13538
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Posted
Questions 1-6 --> who knows?
Would I vote to stay in - certainly. It's crazy to draw our horns in and try to survive alone. Europe has been good for us all.
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Garden. Room. Walk
Posts: 13030 | From: Boogie Wonderland | Registered: Mar 2008
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betjemaniac
Shipmate
# 17618
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Boogie:
It's crazy to draw our horns in and try to survive alone.
As a genuine waverer, it's statements like this that push me towards Out (in much the same way as they did in the Scottish referendum the other year when referring to an independent Scotland).
The In side would probably do well not to frame the argument in terms of "we couldn't survive outside" when virtually every non-EU country in the world seems to manage ok... Project Fear ("Scotland's too small to survive outside the UK"), may have won in 2014, but at what's generally recognised to have been something of a cost.
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And is it true? For if it is....
Posts: 1481 | From: behind the dreaming spires | Registered: Mar 2013
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betjemaniac
Shipmate
# 17618
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Posted
In fact, I suspect this referendum and the Scottish one are going to be *very* similar when it comes down to it - in terms of campaign, result, and repercussions. Neverendum 2 here we come.
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And is it true? For if it is....
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
I would prefer a more democratic EU starting, as Alan Creswell says, with more power in the elected European Parliament and very little in the hands of the European Commission.
Cameron is trying to keep his party together and he may, through posturing and friends in the press, be successful. I doubt if negotiations will actually change very much. However, if there is a referendum and we leave the EU will there really be a new Golden Age as UKIP and the other anti-Europe campaigners suggers? I doubt it and I doubt they will carry the can for it either.
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:
The In side would probably do well not to frame the argument in terms of "we couldn't survive outside" when virtually every non-EU country in the world seems to manage ok... Project Fear ("Scotland's too small to survive outside the UK"), may have won in 2014, but at what's generally recognised to have been something of a cost.
That wouldn't be the best way to phrase it, and as far as campaigning is concerned I'd like to see real numbers on paper from both sides.
As for "Project Fear" determining the Scottish referendum, I thought it was decided by the three main party leaders uniting late on under the despicable banner of "Jam Tomorrow" which fooled just enough Scots at that time. The proof of that pudding was the 2015 SNP landslide.
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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Raptor Eye
Shipmate
# 16649
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Posted
The electorate voted on a Europe of free trade once, and I think that they would do so again.
Few want a federal Europe, or one in which all of the other countries must approve of it before we can decide upon the best policies for ourselves. If anything, I think this 'deal' has so far given more fuel to the 'out' campaigners.
If we do vote 'yes' I can foresee greater struggles to free ourselves in the future.
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Be still, and know that I am God! Psalm 46.10
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
Whether we need to "free ourselves" does rather depend on whether or not you consider the UK to be (or, in the future will become) in some sense "enslaved" to Europe.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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L'organist
Shipmate
# 17338
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Posted
posted by Matt Black quote:
1. Is this a 'deal' at all? Has Cameron actually secured anything of substance even if everyone else agrees it in a fortnight - will it make any difference?
No, it is not a deal. It is a tabled suggestion that the other EU may consider there being a so-called brake on the payment of benefits, or benefits at the same rate, to migrants in the UK and their dependent children elsewhere in the EU; however, the brake can only be applied with the agreement of other EU states and there is plenty to suggest that this won't be happening anytime soon.
So, Mr Cameron is doing his best to spin the obfuscation and refusal to deal of Herr Juncker and his friends as a deal when it really guarantees business as usual. quote:
2. Should Cameron perhaps have concentrated more on negotiations aimed at reforming core EU institutions to eg: address the democratic deficit inherent in the EU stuctures?
The people with whom Mr Cameron is 'megotiating' have no appetite for reform since the status quo suits them just fine; specifically, they have no desire for greater democracy in the EU since they got to be where they are because there is a democratic deficit - in Herr Juncker's case in particular, if he had had to stand for election he would have had to face awkward questions about a grubby little scandal involving the security services in his native Luxembourg, and he is also tarnished because of the continuing problem of Luxembourg providing a tax haven for wealthy individuals and companies the source of whose wealth can best be described as questionable. quote:
3. Will the other member states sign up to the deal and, if so, at what price? Will Greece, for example, demand a further debt 'haircut' and/ or greater help with the refugee crisis?
There are serious doubts that all the other states will sign up to the 'deal' referred to in (1) and, in any case, it is one thing to sign up to something and another to stick to it. There are some states in particular which have made it abundantly clear that they will fight tooth and nail for their nationals to be able to continue sending back Child Benefit at UK rates which greatly enhances their economies. And the subject of Greece and debt is something that all the other EU leaders will do their level best to ignore. quote:
4. Who will lead the 'out' campaign in the UK? Who should?
Who knows who will lead the OUT campaign indeed: there is a case to be made for it to be either Chris Grayling or Teresa Villiers, although neither has a particularly high profile. What is required at the moment is for the OUT people to stop infighting and concentrate on putting forward a simple, believable case for the UK to come out.
Of course, it they could persuade Sir Michael Caine to lead the campaign that would be wonderful... quote:
5. Will the timing of the referendum affect the outcome eg: if in summer at the peak of the 'Mediterranean crossing season', will that queer the pitch?
Not much. People have become used to seeing an endless stream of suffering humanity and, apart from pictures of drowned children, remain pretty much unmoved by it. In any case, this is a problem that has been caused partly by Mrs Merkel and all the OUT campaign has to do is point that out. quote:
6. Finally, but perhaps most importantly, how would you vote?
Oh, I'll vote OUT and for a very good reason: I went to public meetings in 1975 before the last referendum and specifically asked about the question of political union - and I was lied to. Moreover, the release of papers under the 30 year rule has made it very clear that the IN campaign's decision to either lie or to ignore questions about 'ever-closer political union' was a calculated one, dreamt up by Roy Jenkins, Ted Heath and Harold Wilson. I won't be falling for the blandishments of a load of politicos again.
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Rara temporum felicitate ubi sentire quae velis et quae sentias dicere licet
Posts: 4950 | From: somewhere in England... | Registered: Sep 2012
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:
I won't be falling for the blandishments of a load of politicos again.
Though, the campaigners on both sides will be politicos, or journalists in the pocket of politicos. So, whichever way you vote will be "falling for the blandishments of a load of politicos". Which leaves you with two options.
One, make your decision now before the politicos on both sides get going, and vote in ignorance of the evidence and arguments presented by both sides.
Two, abstain.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Sipech
Shipmate
# 16870
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Posted
It's going to be a referendum of very strange bedfellows.
On the "out" side, you've got some of the reasonable arguments about sovereignty and the ability of Parliament to set it's own laws, without reference to others (e.g. fishing quotas) as well the frothy-mouthed xenophobes who think this country is being invaded and who believe in Schrödinger's immigrant.
In the "in" side, you've got some of the political left who see strength and safety in unity allying themselves with the business interests of the laissez-faire right.
I would love to think that the arguments will be won or lost through reasoned debate, but my cynical side says it will be which instills the greater fear: A) the loss of control of borders or B) the great unknown of losing the security we have at present.
I don't really buy into either of these, but it's how the emotional side of the argument seems likely to be framed.
At the moment, I'm leaning slightly towards "in" but I do confess that there are good and valid points on the "out" side. I just don't want to descend to the kind of bickering that happened with the Scottish independence referendum, where anyone who made admitted that the other side had a fair point was attacked as a fool or a traitor.
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I try to be self-deprecating; I'm just not very good at it.
Twitter: http://twitter.com/TheAlethiophile
Posts: 3791 | From: On the corporate ladder | Registered: Jan 2012
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
By far the strongest argument (to me) for remaining within the EU is the simple observation that no man is an island, and nor is any nation (even those which are an island). The modern world is simply too interconnected, too complex, for any nation to have any realistic sovereignty - at least without adopting a North Korean level of isolationism.
If the UK was independent then the availability of fish in UK waters would be, to a significant extent, the result of fishing quotas established for the rest of Europe. To which the UK government would have no input. In virtually every sphere of government the UK would be a small player in international terms - climate change agreements, trans-Atlantic trade, reform of global tax systems to adjust to the reality of multi-national corporations ...
Put simply, the claims for sovereign power of Westminster are a nostaligic position that might have been true when the Royal Navy ruled the seas and Britain was the hub of a vast multinational trading network and the powerhouse of scientific and industrial innovation. But, it is an unrealistic proposition in a world where China is the new economic superpower dominating the markets throughout the world.
It is also unrealistic where many of the problems of the world require the cooperation and organisation on a global scale, whether that's the global climate, international terrorism, mass human migration, potential pandemics of bird 'flu and Zika or whatever. These are things that should naturally fall into the remit of multi-regional governmental structures, where even the EU is simply too small. When many problems we face require us to be looking bigger, it can never be a reasonable approach to shrink back to smaller.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
The modern world is simply too interconnected, too complex, for any nation to have any realistic sovereignty - at least without adopting a North Korean level of isolationism.
Plenty of other countries seem to manage it. And we're still one of the biggest economies in the world.
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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Matt Black
Shipmate
# 2210
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
I would certainly prefer to see major reform of EU institutions. But, since what I would want to see is greater powers to the European Parliament at the expense of both the Commission and national parliaments (by whatever name) Cameron was never going to push for that when the Eurosceptic wing of his party (and the neo-fascist groups) are pushing him to reduce the power of European institutions and increasing the powers of Westminster.
Agree in particular with this; wasn't ever gonna happen on Dave's watch but would dearly have loved to have seen it
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"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)
Posts: 14304 | From: Hampshire, UK | Registered: Jan 2002
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
The negotiations seem very selfish - 'What can the UK get out of it?'
What about the many contribitons we can make?
Or to put it another way: why don't we make ourselves worse off so that a bunch of Spaniards/Greeks/Bulgarians/etc. can be better off?
Yeah, good luck getting that one past the electorate.
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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LeRoc
Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
The negotiations seem very selfish - 'What can the UK get out of it?'
What about the many contribitons we can make?
Or to put it another way: why don't we make ourselves worse off so that a bunch of Spaniards/Greeks/Bulgarians/etc. can be better off?
And people outside of the continent. That's the kind of EU I would like to see.
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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)
Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
I feel very negative about these 'negotiations', which to me look like smoke and mirrors. Basically, Cameron is trying to placate his ultras in the Tory party, so the electorate are being asked to help in that. Bollocks.
However, to vote to leave is quite a significant step, and some people are saying that the UK would be shredded by things such as TTIP.
Well, I have no idea if that's true. So I will brood over it further.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
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Matt Black
Shipmate
# 2210
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Posted
We'd be more exposed to TTIP and the likes, although the EU's record on such things has not exactly been glowing.
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"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)
Posts: 14304 | From: Hampshire, UK | Registered: Jan 2002
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
The negotiations seem very selfish - 'What can the UK get out of it?'
What about the many contribitons we can make?
Or to put it another way: why don't we make ourselves worse off so that a bunch of Spaniards/Greeks/Bulgarians/etc. can be better off?
Yeah, good luck getting that one past the electorate.
We have a long and dishonourable history of making most of ourselves poorer so a small minority get very rich indeed. Moreover we could do something about it, right here at home but do we? Do we heck as like, and that makes a lot more difference to our lives than the EU ever will. Well done the Tories, UKIP and the press for convincing so many of us otherwise.
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc:
That's the kind of EU I would like to see.
I'd like to see an EU that declares me Grand High Emperor and gives me an annual payment of ten million pounds, two luxury yachts, a luxury seafront mansion in every country and at least three nubile concubines.
To be honest, I think mine is more realistic than yours ![[Smile]](smile.gif) .
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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Matt Black
Shipmate
# 2210
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
The negotiations seem very selfish - 'What can the UK get out of it?'
What about the many contribitons we can make?
Or to put it another way: why don't we make ourselves worse off so that a bunch of Spaniards/Greeks/Bulgarians/etc. can be better off?
Yeah, good luck getting that one past the electorate.
We have a long and dishonourable history of making most of ourselves poorer so a small minority get very rich indeed. Moreover we could do something about it, right here at home but do we? Do we heck as like, and that makes a lot more difference to our lives than the EU ever will. Well done the Tories, UKIP and the press for convincing so many of us otherwise.
![[Overused]](graemlins/notworthy.gif)
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"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)
Posts: 14304 | From: Hampshire, UK | Registered: Jan 2002
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
We have a long and dishonourable history of making most of ourselves poorer so a small minority get very rich indeed. Moreover we could do something about it, right here at home but do we?
I might be more inclined to agree with you if I could see any corroborating evidence in my life or the lives of the people I know. Virtually everyone I can think of is either in the same situation or better off now than they were ten or twenty years ago, and the few that are poorer are in that position because of a deliberate decision to pursue a less lucrative career.
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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Matt Black
Shipmate
# 2210
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Posted
...if indeed they are fortunate enough to have careers in the first place; also, you are aware that the plural of 'personal anecdote' isn't 'data', aren't you?
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"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)
Posts: 14304 | From: Hampshire, UK | Registered: Jan 2002
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LeRoc
Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216
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Posted
quote:
Marvin the Martian: I'd like to see an EU that declares me Grand High Emperor and gives me an annual payment of ten million pounds, two luxury yachts, a luxury seafront mansion in every country and at least three nubile concubines.
To be honest, I think mine is more realistic than yours .
So what? I'm a citizen of the EU, and I have a right to my opinion of what I'd like the EU to be.
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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)
Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
There is plenty of data present in studies which have shown an increasing gap between the rich and the poor. The increasing number of working poor, those who work a full time job but are still unable to make ends meet without some form of benefit - that is a very novel situation, through the majority of history the poor have been those without work (through disability or lack of jobs) whereas anyone in full time employment was by definition not poor.
Unless you happen to volunteer for the local homeless shelter, soup kitchen, food bank or similar most middle class people will know very few, if any, people who are genuinely poor, and for whom the system is increasingly working against them. You might if you hire someone to come in and clean your house or tidy the garden, if you deign to get to know them at all.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
There is plenty of data present in studies which have shown an increasing gap between the rich and the poor.
That doesn't necessarily mean anybody is actually getting poorer, it could just mean the poor are getting richer at a slower rate than the rich.
quote:
The increasing number of working poor, those who work a full time job but are still unable to make ends meet without some form of benefit - that is a very novel situation, through the majority of history the poor have been those without work (through disability or lack of jobs) whereas anyone in full time employment was by definition not poor.
I'm sure there are plenty of historical farmers, day labourers and such who would disagree with that, and who would probably think a benefits system to top up their meagre earnings would be a wonderful thing.
quote:
Unless you happen to volunteer for the local homeless shelter, soup kitchen, food bank or similar most middle class people will know very few, if any, people who are genuinely poor, and for whom the system is increasingly working against them.
Middle-class I may be, but I've still got roots (and friends) in the working-class area where I grew up. It took a bit of a dive when the car factory closed, but it's improved no end since then. Still in the bottom 10%, of course, but hopefully not for long.
quote:
You might if you hire someone to come in and clean your house or tidy the garden, if you deign to get to know them at all.
I haven't got to know Kate because she always does the cleaning while I'm at work. Mrs Martian speaks highly of her though.
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
The increasing number of working poor, those who work a full time job but are still unable to make ends meet without some form of benefit - that is a very novel situation, through the majority of history the poor have been those without work (through disability or lack of jobs) whereas anyone in full time employment was by definition not poor.
I'm sure there are plenty of historical farmers, day labourers and such who would disagree with that, and who would probably think a benefits system to top up their meagre earnings would be a wonderful thing.
I'm sure there would be agreement that a bit of extra money would be a good thing, who wouldn't want a bit more.
Though I would disagree with your two examples. Day labourers are not in "full time employment", they get paid when there is work and get nowt when there isn't. If there was always work they would have done OK, not been rich but at least kept the roof over their head and food on the table. But, when there isn't work, well they're unemployed and if that situation persisted they'd be poor just like anyone else unable to work.
Farmers have historically been dependent on external conditions, the weather primarily. In good times farmers have always produced more food than they need (otherwise there would be no towns and cities of people dependent on others to grow their food). If there's no crop to harvest because of a drought then they are effectively in the unemployed category, unable to work because there is nothing to do.
Thinking about it, there has been a group of people who I would class as working poor before the mid 20th Century, people who put in a full days work and didn't get paid enough to maintain a decent living. They were called slaves.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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leo
Shipmate
# 1458
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by leo:
The negotiations seem very selfish - 'What can the UK get out of it?'
What about the many contribitons we can make?
Or to put it another way: why don't we make ourselves worse off so that a bunch of Spaniards/Greeks/Bulgarians/etc. can be better off?
Yeah, good luck getting that one past the electorate.
Sermon on the Mount and catholic social teaching.
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My Jewish-positive lectionary blog is at http://recognisingjewishrootsinthelectionary.wordpress.com/
My reviews at http://layreadersbookreviews.wordpress.com
Posts: 23198 | From: Bristol | Registered: Oct 2001
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Angloid
Shipmate
# 159
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:
I won't be falling for the blandishments of a load of politicos again.
Though, the campaigners on both sides will be politicos, or journalists in the pocket of politicos.
Surely, politicos in the pocket of journalists? Or rather, both in the pocket of powerful media owners like Murdoch.
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Brian: You're all individuals!
Crowd: We're all individuals!
Lone voice: I'm not!
Posts: 12927 | From: The Pool of Life | Registered: May 2001
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Ariel
Shipmate
# 58
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Posted
I'm undecided about which way to vote. My heart says "Out" but this may not be the wisest course of action.
I really dislike the idea of a European superstate which is not what we signed up to when joining the Common Market back in the Seventies. It's gone too far too fast, and I'm not comfortable with Brussels imposing legislation and requirements on us that don't always fit and which people don't always want, simply because we're part of the EU. For which we pay an astronomical sum per week. We would have more money to spend on the NHS etc if we didn't have to pay "club membership" fees. And then we have to argue for exemptions and opt-outs.
And I'm deeply grateful that we didn't opt in either to Schengen or the single currency.
What do shipmates see as the benefits EC membership has actually brought to Britain? Why should we stay in? I don't see the future getting any brighter if we do.
Posts: 25445 | Registered: May 2001
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lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Ariel:
Why should we stay in? I don't see the future getting any brighter if we do.
International commerce, as well as much inside the UK, is largely controlled by the same interests either way. So why would you expect a separatist future to be any brighter?
The U.K. imports much of its food, so why is having less control over those sources better?
The oceans and the ecosystems within don't recognise boundaries, neither do the depredations thereof.
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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou
Posts: 17627 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008
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no prophet's flag is set so...
Proceed to see sea
# 15560
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Posted
It's the fucking Germans again isn't it? which is a quote from a 90 year of my fatherly-sonly acquaintance, disinhibited as he enters his tenth decade.
(Perhaps prescient of him, him being born a Berliner of non-jelly doughnut persuasion, and becoming a British subject in 1942.)
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Out of this nettle, danger, we pluck this flower, safety.
\_(ツ)_/
Posts: 11498 | From: Treaty 6 territory in the nonexistant Province of Buffalo, Canada ↄ⃝' | Registered: Mar 2010
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Aravis
Shipmate
# 13824
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Posted
Most of the middle class employees in health or social services will come across many genuinely poor people, by the way. Some get to know them better than others.
Posts: 689 | From: S Wales | Registered: Jun 2008
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Ariel
Shipmate
# 58
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
The U.K. imports much of its food, so why is having less control over those sources better?
How would there be less control over importing food?
A market is still a market. You can still buy from it, though you might not always get the members' discount.
[ 04. February 2016, 06:58: Message edited by: Ariel ]
Posts: 25445 | Registered: May 2001
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
I guess most of us here would have little problem with an increase in food prices, or prices for other goods imported from the rest of the EU. But the loss of that "members' discount" would have a big impact on many people in the UK.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Ariel
Shipmate
# 58
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Posted
What proportion of our food comes from the EU and what from outside it?
I noticed when looking at the tomatoes in the supermarket the other day that some were from Spain while others were English and Moroccan. They were all the same price, if I remember correctly.
Posts: 25445 | Registered: May 2001
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LeRoc
Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216
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Posted
quote:
Ariel: How would there be less control over importing food?
Currently as an member state, the UK has a say in the EU's agricultural policies. After a Brexit it would presumably still import food from the EU, but it wouldn't have this kind of control over it anymore.
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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)
Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Ariel:
What proportion of our food comes from the EU and what from outside it?
I can't find a UK government version (or, more recent), but this Scottish Government page has 58% (by value) of food imports into Scotland being from the rest of the EU in 2009 - about half way down the page. Assuming that the situation in the rest of the UK is similar, and things haven't changed too much in the last 5 years, I would say there's a very good chance that over half of our food imports (by value) come from elsewhere in the EU.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Ariel:
What proportion of our food comes from the EU and what from outside it?
I noticed when looking at the tomatoes in the supermarket the other day that some were from Spain while others were English and Moroccan. They were all the same price, if I remember correctly.
It might be worth checking the statistics behind this report, but according to DEFRA in 2014, 53% of food consumed is produced in the UK, 28% is from the EU, 90% of cereals come from 12 countries - of which 85% is from the UK (page 26).
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arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
I can't find a UK government version (or, more recent), but this Scottish Government page has 58% (by value) of food imports into Scotland being from the rest of the EU in 2009
I wonder if imports from the RUK to Scotland count as "imports from the rest of the EU".
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arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
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LeRoc
Famous Dutch pirate
# 3216
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Posted
quote:
mr cheesy: I wonder if imports from the RUK to Scotland count as "imports from the rest of the EU".
They will after a Brexit.
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I know why God made the rhinoceros, it's because He couldn't see the rhinoceros, so He made the rhinoceros to be able to see it. (Clarice Lispector)
Posts: 9474 | From: Brazil / Africa | Registered: Aug 2002
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc:
quote:
mr cheesy: I wonder if imports from the RUK to Scotland count as "imports from the rest of the EU".
They will after a Brexit.
That page made it clear that food from England, Wales and NI was not counted as imported into Scotland.
After a Brexit, and the rapid independence referendum that will follow, imports of food to Scotland would not be from the rest of the EU - because, the rest of the UK wouldn't be in the EU. Scotland would then have imports from RUK, from the rest of the EU (with Scotland rapidly seeking admission to the EU after being shafted by Westmonster, again) and elsewhere.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Tubbs
Miss Congeniality
# 440
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:
posted by Matt Black [QUOTE...6. Finally, but perhaps most importantly, how would you vote?
Oh, I'll vote OUT and for a very good reason: I went to public meetings in 1975 before the last referendum and specifically asked about the question of political union - and I was lied to. Moreover, the release of papers under the 30 year rule has made it very clear that the IN campaign's decision to either lie or to ignore questions about 'ever-closer political union' was a calculated one, dreamt up by Roy Jenkins, Ted Heath and Harold Wilson. I won't be falling for the blandishments of a load of politicos again. [/QUOTE]
Then you - and possibly they - didn't read the small print. The treaties that set up the EU always set out that idea that there would be closer union between all the countries that joined the EU. That was the aspiration behind them.
However, time and changes in attitudes in nation states has shown that most people are happy for an trading block but don't want anything else. There are similar movements to lessen EU influence in all the member states.
And Alan's right. All you're falling for is another set of politios. You're just hoping that Nigel et al are more honest than Wilson or Heath. To which I say ![[Killing me]](graemlins/killingme.gif)
Tubbs
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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am
Posts: 12701 | From: Someplace strange | Registered: Jun 2001
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Tubbs
Miss Congeniality
# 440
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
quote:
Originally posted by LeRoc:
quote:
mr cheesy: I wonder if imports from the RUK to Scotland count as "imports from the rest of the EU".
They will after a Brexit.
That page made it clear that food from England, Wales and NI was not counted as imported into Scotland.
After a Brexit, and the rapid independence referendum that will follow, imports of food to Scotland would not be from the rest of the EU - because, the rest of the UK wouldn't be in the EU. Scotland would then have imports from RUK, from the rest of the EU (with Scotland rapidly seeking admission to the EU after being shafted by Westmonster, again) and elsewhere.
That assumes that Scotland would vote to join the EU. Whilst I suspect they would, I wouldn't assume it as a given. The SNP are caught between a rock and a hard-place on this one.
IF the UK votes to leave the EU, they'll get an independence vote they're certain to win. The temptation is to campaign for a No vote. But if they do, that may cause problems later as they want to remain in the EU. When EU membership goes to a vote, they'll have alot of backtracking to do. Particuarly as they'll have spent alot of time telling everyone that Scotland needs to be independent and doesn't need anyone else ...
Tubbs
[ 04. February 2016, 09:34: Message edited by: Tubbs ]
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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am
Posts: 12701 | From: Someplace strange | Registered: Jun 2001
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Matt Black
Shipmate
# 2210
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Posted
It's not even in the small print but in the main body of the Treaty of Rome and the other 1950s treaties that set up what is now the EU. I find it hard to understand therefore people who say that they thought all they were voting for in 1975 was a Common Market (which already existed from 1968 and was merely the first (customs union) stage towards integration).
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"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)
Posts: 14304 | From: Hampshire, UK | Registered: Jan 2002
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Tubbs:
That assumes that Scotland would vote to join the EU. Whilst I suspect they would, I wouldn't assume it as a given. The SNP are caught between a rock and a hard-place on this one.
IF the UK votes to leave the EU, they'll get an independence vote they're certain to win. The temptation is to campaign for a No vote. But if they do, that may cause problems later as they want to remain in the EU. When it goes to a vote, they'll have alot of backtracking to do. Particuarly as they'll have spent alot of time telling everyone that Scotland needs to be independent and doesn't need anyone else ...
It's an interesting situation for those of us north of the border. The EU has been, and continues to be, good for Scotland in a very visible way (ie: lots of money for infrastructure development), as well as through the less visible ways that have benefited, and continue to benefit, the UK as a whole (access to a larger pool of qualified employees, trade partnerships, cooperative scientific and technical R&D, common practice in regulations covering goods and services ...). This is something that the Better Together campaign recognised, that Scotland and Scots are strongly in favour of EU membership - which is why they played that fear card, of an independent Scotland not being guaranteed a place in the EU, and the only way of ensuring Scottish membership in the EU was as part of the UK. Which is why a UK vote to leave the EU would trigger a referendum on Scottish independence, because that part of the Better Together promises that swung the vote in 2014 would have been shown to be false.
Which brings us down to how the SNP will campaign in the EU referendum. To trigger another Independence referendum there would not only need to be a UK majority for a Brexit, there would need to be a strong vote in Scotland in favour of remaining in the EU. If the votes in Scotland and the rest of the UK are very similar then the case for an independence referendum is weak, regardless of which way that vote goes. So, a large Scottish vote to leave the EU does nothing to support independence. A vote to stay in would if the rest of the UK votes to leave, and if the overall result is to stay in then that is also good for Scotland. Therefore, I conclude that the SNP would be firmly in the stay in camp.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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Tubbs
Miss Congeniality
# 440
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
quote:
Originally posted by Tubbs:
That assumes that Scotland would vote to join the EU. Whilst I suspect they would, I wouldn't assume it as a given. The SNP are caught between a rock and a hard-place on this one.
IF the UK votes to leave the EU, they'll get an independence vote they're certain to win. The temptation is to campaign for a No vote. But if they do, that may cause problems later as they want to remain in the EU. When it goes to a vote, they'll have alot of backtracking to do. Particuarly as they'll have spent alot of time telling everyone that Scotland needs to be independent and doesn't need anyone else ...
It's an interesting situation for those of us north of the border. The EU has been, and continues to be, good for Scotland in a very visible way (ie: lots of money for infrastructure development), as well as through the less visible ways that have benefited, and continue to benefit, the UK as a whole (access to a larger pool of qualified employees, trade partnerships, cooperative scientific and technical R&D, common practice in regulations covering goods and services ...). This is something that the Better Together campaign recognised, that Scotland and Scots are strongly in favour of EU membership - which is why they played that fear card, of an independent Scotland not being guaranteed a place in the EU, and the only way of ensuring Scottish membership in the EU was as part of the UK. Which is why a UK vote to leave the EU would trigger a referendum on Scottish independence, because that part of the Better Together promises that swung the vote in 2014 would have been shown to be false.
Which brings us down to how the SNP will campaign in the EU referendum. To trigger another Independence referendum there would not only need to be a UK majority for a Brexit, there would need to be a strong vote in Scotland in favour of remaining in the EU. If the votes in Scotland and the rest of the UK are very similar then the case for an independence referendum is weak, regardless of which way that vote goes. So, a large Scottish vote to leave the EU does nothing to support independence. A vote to stay in would if the rest of the UK votes to leave, and if the overall result is to stay in then that is also good for Scotland. Therefore, I conclude that the SNP would be firmly in the stay in camp.
Depends on whether the Scottish want to play the long or short game. A vote to leave the EU would almost guarantee another (successful) independence vote. The SNP is a nationalist party whose sole reason for existing is achieving Scottish Independence.
Some Scottish people are talking about deliberately voting OUT to leave in the hope of triggering another independence vote. You can’t take Scottish EU vote in the Referendum as indicative of the result of a stand-alone vote to re-join the EU.
Last time I looked, the SNP were keeping fairly quiet … If they go all out for an OUT vote, they’ll have a load of back-peddling to do when it comes to tempting people for vote YES to the EU later. And, if you’re right and the EU fast tracks Scotland’s application, it’ll be happening in the aftermath of loads of nationalist propaganda about how Scotland doesn’t need anyone else as it’ll do super well all on its own. If they go for a IN vote, they've passed up a fantastic opportunity to achieve their ultimate goal.
Tubbs
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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am
Posts: 12701 | From: Someplace strange | Registered: Jun 2001
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
Something similar may be going on outside Scotland. I mean, that Cameron's grubby little attempt to neutralize his own skeptics is resented by some people. I am tempted to vote out, just because of this. Why should I be involved in Tory politicking?
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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