|
Source: (consider it)
|
Thread: French elections 2017
|
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
|
Posted
Time for me to sign off for the evening, but not before reporting on Macron's second, stirring speech to his supporters, and notably his closing words: "I will serve you with love" - a commitment which sounds startlingly Christian in its sentiment.
--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
You'd kind of hope a left-winger would be against the Fash from the off.
Strange days.
Strange days... really?
Yes. Unless you think Soviet communism under Stalin is representative of contemporary socialist thought.
Expedience trumps ideology, a timeless political truth.
Eutychus is correct in that Mélenchon is a coward.
[ 07. May 2017, 21:13: Message edited by: lilBuddha ]
--------------------
I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou
Posts: 17627 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008
| IP: Logged
|
|
stonespring
Shipmate
# 15530
|
Posted
Now - on to the French parliamentary elections in a month's time. I heard someone interviewed on BBC World News say that there was one poll saying that En Marche could get close to a majority in the National Assembly (while still falling short) - but he hedged that by saying that most Macron voters in the second round of the presidential vote were voting against Le Pen rather than for him. Does anyone know what poll he was referring to? Is En Marche running candidates in every district? Are the candidates mostly current MPs, former MPs from other parties (and if so, are they more from one party than others?), or political novices?
If it were not for Fillon's scandals and their tarnishing effects on Les Republicains, I would think that the collapse of the Socialists and the unpopularity of Hollande would make Les Republicains likely to get a majority in the parliamentary vote, especially given that En Marche is an inexperienced party with potentially very shallow support for its actual policies (rather than for its presidential candidate as the most likely to beat Le Pen). The anger of Melenchon supporters at their lack of a candidate they would have liked in the second round, even if some of them did vote for Macron, is also likely to divide the left from the center left even further than up to now - which would favor the most organized and familiar party on the right, I would think, which would be Les Republicains.
Another possibility is some kind of hung parliament. Is this possible?
Posts: 1537 | Registered: Mar 2010
| IP: Logged
|
|
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by stonespring:
Another possibility is some kind of hung parliament. Is this possible?
Yes and on the face of it the most likely outcome.
On the one hand, Mitterrand famously said that the French were not so stupid as to vote one way in the presidential election and the other way in the general election.
This time round, though, there are three mitigating factors:
1) the fact that En Marche ! has never fought a general election before (they are intending to field candidates in every constituency though);
2) the large proportion of votes against Le Pen rather than for Macron (one poll I saw last night suggested perhaps only one third of those who voted for him did so as a vote in favour of his programme);
3) the record low turnout / record high spoiled and blank ballots (75% and 11.5% respectively).
All of this adds up to a huge amount of uncertainty.
On the face of last night's speeches, if anyone can pull together a consensus coalition for effective government, it's Macron, who appears to be growing in stature by the minute (even his lisp has suddenly all but vanished). I think a lot will depend on who is appointed as interim PM and cabinet and the messages that sends.
[ 08. May 2017, 05:31: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688
|
Posted
IN YOUR FACE MARINE
65% is a better result than I hoped for. I think the second round debate cost the evil witch Le Pen significantly. We survived watching it with the assistance of alcohol but it was ugly. I thought Manu did a pretty good job of showing that Marine didn't really have a viable project. Her figures didn't add up. He stayed mostly calm and looked much more présidentiable .
Apparently he drove right underneath our window last night and we missed him. Annoyed about that.
I'm not sure how much he's really going to change and I'm not sure he can get a majority in the Assembly. Still, Marine has got a bloody nose and this is much, much better than the alternative. Ouf. (French for phew)
--------------------
Rent my holiday home in the South of France
Posts: 3696 | Registered: Nov 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
|
Posted
I still don't understand what happens if he doesn't get a majority in parliamentary elections.
If NF supporters are elected in a majority, can they not still force a NF Prime Minister who can lame-duck the president?
--------------------
arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
|
Posted
The president appoints the prime minister, who then appoints the cabinet. None of these people need to be elected, but their powers are limited by the National Assembly.
If the general election fails to produce an absolute majority for EM! (likely), the PM will seek to form a workable coalition (not impossible). If that doesn't happen, we effectively have 'cohabitation', with a lame-duck presidency. The PM would have the power to ram through legislation using Article 49.3 of the Constitution, but the National Assembly would revolt with a no-confidence vote in the government as often as it deemed it necessary: think Italy.
I haven't seen any detailed forecasts yet, but I would think it unlikely the FN would win a majority in parliament in June, or anything like one. One FN devotee last night was hoping for 40 seats. The worst they could do is provide a majority for a right-wing bloc, but I think that's probably still beyond the pale for most right-wingers.
At a constituency level, the same two-round process that kept Le Pen out at national level will function in many cases, and the perceived contribution of Marine Le Pen to her lower-than-expected performance (due to the debate) will create leadership tensions.
The proof of the pudding of Macron's victory will very much be whether he can achieve a working parliamentary majority over the next few weeks, which promise more fascinating politics. On the election night specials, there was a discernible - and cross-party - line between party diehards and "pick-me!" politicians eager to change loyalties and sign up with EM!
I and many of my neighbours will now be facing quite a dilemma. Where I live is a socialist party stronghold that voted over 88% for Macron. Now do I go with my trusted Socialist MP, or do I back the EM! candidate?
--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
|
Posted
Well I suppose that's a blessing: not much chance of a fascist PM (although presumably the same might have happened in reverse, Le Pen won but a majority in parliament against her).
If the harder socialist bloc does well, I wonder where that leaves his pro-business, neolib agenda.
--------------------
arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
|
Posted
The chances of a fascist PM are essentially nil: as explained above, in France, the PM is appointed by the President. They don't even have to be an MP: see Dominique de Villepin. They can pass legislation without a majority using Article 49.3, but this leaves them open to a vote of no confidence. The danger now is not an FN takeover but constitutional gridlock.
[ 08. May 2017, 09:38: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
|
Posted
Oh right, I didn't realise that the didn't even have to be from parliament.
I was getting confused by reading the wikipedia page, which talks about situations where the President was forced to appoint a PM from a different party, who then set about undoing some of his policies.
I imagined that this meant that the appointed PM was the leader of the biggest party in Parliament - obviously not.
--------------------
arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
|
Posted
It's not so much "forced" as there being a strong incentive for the president to find somebody who can actually manage to get legislation passed by a majority in order to avoid a constitutional/governmental crisis. That's why Mitterrand made do with Chirac at one point.
This is why speculating about Macron's possible PM pick is so fascinating, and why so much hinges on it. It will tell us a lot about how he intends to play his hand, and send a strong message of one kind or another.
[ 08. May 2017, 09:46: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
(although presumably the same might have happened in reverse, Le Pen won but a majority in parliament against her).
Sorry, missed this. Yes it could well have.
In fact there was a discernible (but dumb) trend amongst some voters to vote for her as a protest on the basis that "even if she gets in, she won't be able to do anything without a parliament".
In this scenario, I think she would have been far more likely than Macron to generate gridlock intentionally, and then used ensuing crises to abuse her presidential powers to the greatest extent possible under the existing Constitution, before seeking to extend them still further (cf Erdogan).
So yes, I think we had a lucky escape there.
--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688
|
Posted
One of the more bizarre and absurd moments of the debate was when Marine accused Macron of planning to make François Fillon Prime Minister. Ain't going to happen and no idea where she got that from.
My money's on Bayrou FWIW.
--------------------
Rent my holiday home in the South of France
Posts: 3696 | Registered: Nov 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
|
Posted
Belgian TV suggested Jean-Yves Le Drian.
--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
stonespring
Shipmate
# 15530
|
Posted
1. Do the PM and Cabinet need to be approved by Parliament to take office?
2. Does the President have a veto on legislation passed by Parliament? If so, can Parliament override the veto and if they can, how many votes are needed to override it?
Posts: 1537 | Registered: Mar 2010
| IP: Logged
|
|
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by stonespring:
1. Do the PM and Cabinet need to be approved by Parliament to take office?
No. But they are subject to a vote of no confidence.
quote:
2. Does the President have a veto on legislation passed by Parliament?
I don't think Parliament can put forward legislation without the approval of the government (i.e. the cabinet, appointed by the PM, appointed by the President), so I don't think this scenario can arise. In normal circumstances the President cannot oppose a vote of no confidence in their Government, though.
--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
|
Posted
France Info (French) has a useful article today about four post parliamentary election scenarios:
1) Absolute majority for EM!
2) Absolute majority for LR. This is the only (barely) imaginable scenario in which Macron would be "forced" (through a sense of credibility rather than any actual law) to appoint an LR PM; cohabitation would restrict him to foreign policy. (An absolute majority for the PS is not envisaged, due in part no doubt to Hamon's miserable first-round score).
3) Large but not majority PS and LR groupings plus some EM!
3a: Macron succeeds in negotiating a coalition majority
3b: Ad hoc coalitions required for each piece of legislation
4) Divided parliament with no large grouping: gridlock.
I think 1) and 2) are unlikely to happen; we will probably end up with 3a or 3b; 4) would be a nightmare and is by no means impossible.
I have also learned that 'nuclear' PM-forces-legislation-through tactics using Article 49.3 are now reduced (restrictions on the applicable scope of legislation and the frequency).
--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
|
|
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by la vie en rouge:
Marion Maréchal-le Pen is resigning to spend more time with her family.
I think the FN is in a mess and expect some nasty infighting. Long may it continue.
I agree. But note that MMLP's withdrawal is "temporary". Stepping back in order to jump better, as we say. I expect she's keeping out of the heat until the legal troubles are resolved, too.
Funnier is Valls' simultaneous rebuff by EM! and discipline by his Socialist party. Not far behind is Hamon's announcement of forming a "new, transverse political movement" to oppose Macron: beware of imitations!
I think Macron must be a genius:
- announce forthcoming list of government posts
- see who volunteers themselves
- gauge public and other party reactions
-> destroy rivals effortlessly
That's less than 24 hours' worth of news, too. What a ride.
--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
stonespring
Shipmate
# 15530
|
Posted
1. And Edouard Philippe, a moderate from the conservative Les Republicains, is to be Prime Minister. Thoughts?
2. What candidates in your legislative district are likely to make it to the runoff? Who do you think will win the runoff? Who is your local incumbent and is s/he likely to be unseated if s/he is running for reelection? Are you leaning towards voting a certain way in the legislative election and is it different than how you voted in the presidential election?
Posts: 1537 | Registered: Mar 2010
| IP: Logged
|
|
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by stonespring:
1. And Edouard Philippe, a moderate from the conservative Les Republicains, is to be Prime Minister. Thoughts?
This is clearly an effort by Macron to split the LR party and make good on his promise to implement a cross-partisan government. It will take some time to see whether Philippe can pull things together in this way. The delay in the announcement suggests some hard bargaining, and possibly tensions, between him and Macron.
As to voting for MPs, I think it will really depend on the constituency. Unlike the UK, MPs do not really have much of a local presence (one would not consider, say "writing to your MP" as you would in the UK).
The city where I live is at the intersection of several constituencies and I had to check who my MP was - and it took me quite some time to find out.
I'll be voting for République En Marche (REM) in the first round at least on the very French basis of being consistent with the president I've just helped elect. Had my local MP been a strong local presence and still in the running, it would have been real a dilemma for me.
Incidentally Edouard Philippe is said to be not adverse to evangelicals (his stronghold of Le Havre is to host a major evangelistic event in the football stadium this summer). Macron, meanwhile, requested a Catholic baptism aged 12 and served at one time as an assistant to the late and renowned Protestant theologian Paul Ricoeur who spoke highly of him.
--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688
|
Posted
In my neck of the woods (the 15th arrondissement of Paris) it’s going to be a straight fight between the Republicans and REM with no one else getting a look in.
However, that in itself is a fairly big change. Until a year ago, this was the most secure Republican territory going – petit-bourgeois and rather Catholic. The Republican HQ has been on the rue de Vaugirard round the corner from my house forever. It’s possibly not insignificant that REM also set up shop in the 15th.
The canvassers were back out on the market this weekend, and the Republicans were being somewhat virulent. They were arguing that an opposition in the Assembly is for the good of the country. I’m not sure. Also I’m warming to Macron.
Posts: 3696 | Registered: Nov 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
|
|
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
|
Posted
It's certainly put the cat among the pigeons in the traditional parties.
A REM! majority in the National Assembly suddenly looks a lot more plausible, but there's a month to go yet.
In the meantime, Macron intends to push through two pieces of law by executive order prior to the elections, on reforming the Labour Act and on ethics in politics. That will be an interesting test and probably have an impact on the election.
Mélenchon's popularity is sinking like a stone, btw.
--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688
|
Posted
I’m not surprised that Mélenchon is in the doldrums. My diehard left-wing intellectual friend mentioned upthread has declared himself deeply disappointed. I think he’s not alone in considering it beyond the pale that Mélenchon refused to come out categorically against Le Pen. And in the cold light of day one can’t help remembering that he’s always been a bit of a megalomaniac (Mélenchon, I mean, not my friend ![[Biased]](wink.gif) ).
--------------------
Rent my holiday home in the South of France
Posts: 3696 | Registered: Nov 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
Ian Climacus
Liturgical Slattern
# 944
|
Posted
So how is Macron being viewed?
Favourable press outside France from what I can see. Particularly #that# handshake and his comments on Trump's various declarations and decisions.
I know it's off topic for this thread, but are his party's chances for the election looking better due to his performance?
Posts: 7800 | From: On the border | Registered: Jul 2001
| IP: Logged
|
|
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
|
Posted
He has certainly made the most of his overseas outings since being elected.
At home he has had a few missteps, with an unfortunate off-the-cuff remark about migrants to the island of Mayotte and a minor minister embroiled in a conflict-of-interest kerfuffle that does not sit well with his stated aim of cleaning up French political life, even if most of the outrage seems to be manufactured.
Macron has done well in the voting for overseas constituencies (which has already happened) but with a very low turnout. I think we're suffering from election fatigue. The first round of voting in the general election is this Sunday.
--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
Ian Climacus
Liturgical Slattern
# 944
|
Posted
Merci.
And I did not realise they were so close, or had started!
Posts: 7800 | From: On the border | Registered: Jul 2001
| IP: Logged
|
|
Ian Climacus
Liturgical Slattern
# 944
|
Posted
You wrote "first round". How does voting work this time around? Do you have electorates? Or are people elected direct to Parliament? I can see how 2 rounds work for the President...how does it work for MPs?
Posts: 7800 | From: On the border | Registered: Jul 2001
| IP: Logged
|
|
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
|
Posted
quote:
To be elected in the first round, a candidate is required to secure an absolute majority of votes cast and to secure votes equal to at least 25% of eligible voters. Should none of the candidates satisfy these conditions, a second round of voting ensues. Only first-round candidates with the support of at least 12.5% of registered voters are allowed to participate, but if fewer than two candidates meet that standard the two candidates with the highest number of votes in the first round may continue to the second round. In the second round, the candidate with a relative majority is elected.
Source
--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
|
|
stonespring
Shipmate
# 15530
|
Posted
The polls seem to be predicting a massive victory for Macron's Republique En Marche party. Do people here think this is likely? Are people in what used to be safe Republicain or Socialist constituencies switching to En Marche in large numbers (that is, where the local incumbent member of parliament, regardless of party, has not voiced support for Macron)?
Posts: 1537 | Registered: Mar 2010
| IP: Logged
|
|
la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688
|
Posted
I don’t think you can be sure, but I think Macron could do well, because he’s been very smart in his approach to the Republicans and figured out who he can do deals with. In foie gras land, for instance, there is no REM candidate, because the incumbent Republican has indicated that she is willing to work with him to form a parliamentary majority.
As I said previously, I live just round the corner from Republican party HQ and there is good reason to believe they are going to lose the seat.
--------------------
Rent my holiday home in the South of France
Posts: 3696 | Registered: Nov 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
Ian Climacus
Liturgical Slattern
# 944
|
Posted
From a former French correspondent in a paywalled article:
quote:
Two ministers have become enmeshed in ethics scandals that risk compromising weekend legislative elections for the government, rendering Macron’s revolution stillborn via the ballot box. Whatever his successes out-tweeting — out-smarting — Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin on the international stage, his first weeks have been sullied at home, and he will be blamed. But to what extent?
Should Macron decide to dismiss Richard Ferrand, his regional development minister and former campaign manager, and junior minister Marielle de Sarnez — both facing separate media allegations of sleaze — he would be charged with summoning a spectacular storm upon the government. If he doesn’t, and it appears at this stage that he will not, he could pay the price for ignoring one of the biggest lessons of the current electoral cycle: the French are tired of scandals and want exemplary behaviour from politicians.
Does that ring true to you? The last few lines particularly?
Posts: 7800 | From: On the border | Registered: Jul 2001
| IP: Logged
|
|
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
|
Posted
The sleaze allegations are certainly coming at a bad time. If I were Macron I'd hold firm until after the elections and then lose the ministers in question in the subsequent cabinet reshuffle.
I'm starting to be nervous about Macron again.
The fact that one of his core supports has got mired in scandal after EM !'s extreme vetting makes it look as though his project is becoming unglued already.
He clearly has a good understanding of the power of symbols - look at presidential election night and that upstaging of Trump - but his flagship announcement of an "anti-terrorism task force" looks more like style than substance, and his plans to transpose at least some state-of-emergency legislation into ordinary law are disquieting.
His style of government looks less like the consensus-building image EM ! projected and more akin to Sarkozy's, with a degree of control verging on the control freakery. We'll just have to wait and see.
--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
Ian Climacus
Liturgical Slattern
# 944
|
Posted
Any last minute hiccoughs, triumphs, etc.?
According to the BBC there are the always-present "colourful characters":
quote:
There are a number of colourful characters in the Macron camp - a retired bullfighter in Arles, Marie Sara; an eclair entrepreneur in Lille, Brigitte Liso; a Rwandan refugee in Brittany, Hervé Berville; and Cédric Villani, a "mathematics evangelist" known for his unique dress sense including large spider brooches.
I'm reading a bit about Jean-Christophe Cambadélis's 20-year-held Paris seat and the challenger, Mounir Mahjoubi.
Posts: 7800 | From: On the border | Registered: Jul 2001
| IP: Logged
|
|
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
|
Posted
La République en Marche is expected to win a comfortable majority and have virtually no sizeable opposition, on a low turnout. The Socialists are expected to be wiped out. I am in a Socialist safe seat and still haven't fully made up my mind who to vote for today.
--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
|
Posted
Belgian TV is projecting 37.2% for LREM, an estimated final total on June 18 of 400 seats out of 577 (!) with a turnout of just under 50%, yet another record low.
I hope this is good news and that LREM aren't evil.
--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
|
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
I am in a Socialist safe seat and still haven't fully made up my mind who to vote for today.
Oops. The socialists didn't even make it into the second round there: LREM won over 40% of my constituency vote followed by Mélenchon's lot with 14%.
Pundit talk on the tv tonight is that the lack of a parliamentary opposition will mean "the opposition will be in the streets". Exciting times.
[ 11. June 2017, 21:14: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
Ian Climacus
Liturgical Slattern
# 944
|
Posted
That is a very low turnout. I am amazed so many are that disinterested, or perhaps uninterested. Is there some minimum that needs to be reached, or if 25% turn up is all considered good? Coming from a country where it is compulsory to turn up to vote, 50% shocks me.
Well done Macron though. And with a new party too. It'll be interesting to see how it goes.
Posts: 7800 | From: On the border | Registered: Jul 2001
| IP: Logged
|
|
stonespring
Shipmate
# 15530
|
Posted
How do they predict the number of seats from the second round? Where an LREM candidate is against a FN candidate, I can understand assuming the LREM candidate will win. What about where an LREM candidate is up againt a LR or PS candidate that does not support Macron? And mightn't the FI/PCF candidates pull off a few surprises where enough leftists turn out to try to make things difficult for Macron? And what about any three or four-way races? How do they make assumptions then? I don't see how the forecasters are so confident.
Posts: 1537 | Registered: Mar 2010
| IP: Logged
|
|
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
|
Posted
If there is a second round (ie no candidate has won the required majority in the first round), an initial rough voting prediction can be made by guessing where the percentage of the vote that went to those candidates who didn't make the cut might go.
Of course there may be some new voters and some who don't bother to vote in the second round, but it's a fairly reliable guide (note however that the margin of error is still pretty large - the Front National is now forecast to get anywhere between 1 and 5 seats, LREM between 415 and 455, for instance).
I haven't checked, but the word was that the large number of different candidates in most constituencies this time (especially on the left) means that there will be very few three and four-way contests in the second round.
--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
stonespring
Shipmate
# 15530
|
Posted
Macron has his majority, but turnout was way down in the second round of the legislatives and his majority is about 50 seats less than predicted. Will it be smooth sailing for his agenda? Will the Socialist Party recover in the next election or is it really kaput?
Posts: 1537 | Registered: Mar 2010
| IP: Logged
|
|
la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688
|
Posted
If Macron is smart, he’ll push the most prickly legislation through over the summer when no one can be bothered protesting about it (and probably quite a bit of it by executive order). I am nonetheless expecting some quite ugly strikes once he sets about reforming the labour law.
--------------------
Rent my holiday home in the South of France
Posts: 3696 | Registered: Nov 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
stonespring
Shipmate
# 15530
|
Posted
There seem to be multiple scandals among Macron's political allies, including his closest political confidante and also in the MoDem party of his ally Bayrou, who is justice minister and now it seems protested too much in his talk of cleaning up government - all these scandals very similar to the "fake jobs" scandals that afflicted Fillon and LePen. Should Macron do all he can to protect his allies so he can get things passed, even if it makes him look like the old corrupt political establishment? Should he make all his allies that are implicated fall on their swords even if it means fracturing his support in Parliament? Or should he be brutally honest with the French people and say that many politicians of both the right and the left have been doing this for a long time with impunity and offer an amnesty if a politician admits to everything and pays back every cent that their family members were paid by the government to do nothing? Or would that be the most disastrous choice of all?
Also - is Macron in his elitism and sense of entitlement similar to David Cameron? Could this serve to undermine him, especially if he winds up making cuts to government jobs, services, and benefits (and labor protections) like Cameron did? Or is he more like a French Tony Blair who has triangulated his way to victory over right and left but risks alienating a huge groups of people with his pro-market policies who will turn even further to the extremes of the political spectrum?
Posts: 1537 | Registered: Mar 2010
| IP: Logged
|
|
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
|
Posted
I've been working with politicians all week. The remark that rang the most true for me was a comparison between Macron and Napoleon.
--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
la vie en rouge
Parisienne
# 10688
|
Posted
Bayrou has gone. If nothing else, I think this shows Manu is prepared to be ruthless. He doesn’t need MoDem anymore and is prepared to cut them loose if they are becoming a liability. It remains to be seen whether he is willing, or more to the point, capable, of being equally ruthless with the trades’ unions.
A completely different point, which I have been mulling over for the last few days. I am currently reading this book which argues that the Baby Boomers set up society to serve only themselves and ripped off their children in the process. The author is an American writing about the US, but I think it applies to quite a lot of developed countries. ISTM that a significant but rather overlooked element of recent elections is that France has just become the first developed country to kick the Boomers out of office. Dégagisme* isn’t just about the established parties, it’s about saying wealthy old white people don’t get to run the show anymore. Macron is 39. The average REM deputy is 45. Macron has already announced the colour, as the French say, by overtly saying he is going to put up social charges, including on pensions, because wealthy retirees haven’t been paying their fair share.
* I think the translation of this should be something like “getoutism” although for my own entertainment I am going to offer “buggeroffism”. Basically the desire to kick out the status quo.
[ETA missing word]
[ 21. June 2017, 09:18: Message edited by: la vie en rouge ]
--------------------
Rent my holiday home in the South of France
Posts: 3696 | Registered: Nov 2005
| IP: Logged
|
|
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
|
Posted
Here's an interesting article explaining all the symbolism in Macron's presidential photo. He doesn't leave much to chance.
--------------------
Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
| IP: Logged
|
|
simontoad
Ship's Amphibian
# 18096
|
Posted
While listening to an episode of the News Quiz aired before the UK election, I heard Miles Jupp use his schoolboy French to translate Macron's Republique En Marche as "People of the Swamp". Stupid? Sure. But I wet myself laughing, metaphorically of course. ![[Snigger]](graemlins/snigger.gif)
--------------------
Human
Posts: 1571 | From: Romsey, Vic, AU | Registered: May 2014
| IP: Logged
|
|
stonespring
Shipmate
# 15530
|
Posted
Macron has spoken about changing the French electoral system to be more proportional. Does he realize that he could never have won under a strictly-PR system? Or does he want to do something like Australian House of Representatives (instant runoff voting, rather than the current two-round system), which isn't PR but does result in more widely-deemed "acceptable" candidates being elected? Or something in-between like STV in the Irish Dail - which can result in lots of independents being elected that all want money and other perks for their districts and can make achieving working majorities very difficult? He wants to reduce the number of MPs and do other changes that he says he will bring to a referendum if Parliament does not pass them. Would a referendum just result in a protest vote against the government like the one that brought down Matteo Renzi in Italy? Is this wise?
Posts: 1537 | Registered: Mar 2010
| IP: Logged
|
|
Printer-friendly view
