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Source: (consider it) Thread: Theresa May to resign, when?
Mark Wuntoo
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quote:
Originally posted by Schroedinger's cat:
To an extent, Tory leaders do do as they are told. Especially when they are under pressure. The party has to retain a facade of unity.

In fact, they are very much controlled by the party all along. This is particulalry the case when they are weak leaders (like May and Cameron), because they are simply put up as a froont, with others controlling the party in reality.

I read this and thought 'I don't get it; why doesn't she just go (if she wishes)?'. And then I thought about some churches where priests are under the authority of whoever and have no freedom to quit. Is it something similar? Whilst I don't agree with such systems I can understand them.

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Schroedinger's cat

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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Schroedinger's cat:
This is particulalry the case when they are weak leaders (like May and Cameron)

As a tangent I'm not sure that Cameron was actually that 'weak' in the conventional sense. Very few Tory leaders have lasted for longer.

Ultimately I'm not sure on what level he actually 'cared' about the job, beyond thinking he'd be 'rather good at it' and it was hubris that brought him down in the end, at which point he could no longer be arsed.

I think he was weak in a different way - he was not a strong leader. He was an arrogant shit who felt that he deserved the job. That is weakness of a different sort.

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Sioni Sais
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Cameron my have been weak and a privileged shit but he was the best they had, which was the only reason he has lasted to the election and beyond. Then his gamble to deal with the Euro-sceptics in the Tory party failed and he had to go.

Now what have we: A government that has leaving the EU as its sole purpose for being led by a Remainer who has to cosy up to the nastiest political party Westminster has ever seen. She will be held to ransom by them and the result will be that we will be lumbered with the DUP's preferred version of Brexit and sod the interests of the rest of the UK.

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Jane R
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quetzalcoatl:
quote:
The Tories could rebuild. Well, pigs can do ballet.
Don't write them off just yet. There's a reason why they are the oldest political party...
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lilBuddha
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quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
quetzalcoatl:
quote:
The Tories could rebuild. Well, pigs can do ballet.
Don't write them off just yet. There's a reason why they are the oldest political party...
Because people get old. As they get old, they become more conservative. Or have interests which align conservative/ fears which the conservatives exploit well.

--------------------
So goodnight moon, I want the sun
If it's not here soon, I might be done
No it won't be too soon 'til I say goodnight moon

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Stetson
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quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
quetzalcoatl:
quote:
The Tories could rebuild. Well, pigs can do ballet.
Don't write them off just yet. There's a reason why they are the oldest political party...
Yeah. You know Justin Trudeau, the guy routinely hailed by international liberaldom as the greatest world leader alive right now? Well, his party had been reduced to third-place in the 2011 election, with 19% of the popular vote.

There was lots of talk about that being the end of the road for the Liberals, who had been dominating Canadian politics since at least the early Twentieth Century. Similar predictions had been made about the party in 1984, when they suffered a slightly less catastrophic drubbing at the hands of the Tories.

But of course, in both cases, they managed to pull themselves back together and retake their "rightful" place as the Natural Governing Party Of Canada. I would expect the British Tories to have at least as much resilience.

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Dafyd
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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
As a tangent I'm not sure that Cameron was actually that 'weak' in the conventional sense. Very few Tory leaders have lasted for longer.

For five years he didn't have a majority of his own party, a situation that made his backbenchers restless. Instead of standing up to them he took to pretending to throw his weight around ineffectually in Europe.

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Jane R
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lilbuddha:
quote:
Because people get old. As they get old, they become more conservative. Or have interests which align conservative/ fears which the conservatives exploit well.
Because they have no principles beyond 'let's stay in power for as long as possible'.
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balaam

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quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
quetzalcoatl:
quote:
The Tories could rebuild. Well, pigs can do ballet.
Don't write them off just yet. There's a reason why they are the oldest political party...
Joint Oldest with the Whigs, who are not dead yet.

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Jolly Jape
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quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
quetzalcoatl:
quote:
The Tories could rebuild. Well, pigs can do ballet.
Don't write them off just yet. There's a reason why they are the oldest political party...
Because people get old. As they get old, they become more conservative. Or have interests which align conservative/ fears which the conservatives exploit well.
Is this actually true, statistically? I'm 64, and am as left wing as I have ever been, same is true of many of my contemporaries. My impression is that it's the generation after mine, who never knew of anything before Thatcher, who are the most conservative.

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To those who have never seen the flow and ebb of God's grace in their lives, it means nothing. To those who have seen it, even fleetingly, even only once - it is life itself. (Adeodatus)

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Sioni Sais
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quote:
Originally posted by balaam:
quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
quetzalcoatl:
quote:
The Tories could rebuild. Well, pigs can do ballet.
Don't write them off just yet. There's a reason why they are the oldest political party...
Joint Oldest with the Whigs, who are not dead yet.
If I remember my history correctly, the Conservative Party is closer to the old Whigs, who represented the business class, new money and campaigned for Free Trade. The Tories were for landed interests and tariffs to keep produce prices high.
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lilBuddha
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quote:
Originally posted by Jolly Jape:
quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
quetzalcoatl:
quote:
The Tories could rebuild. Well, pigs can do ballet.
Don't write them off just yet. There's a reason why they are the oldest political party...
Because people get old. As they get old, they become more conservative. Or have interests which align conservative/ fears which the conservatives exploit well.
Is this actually true, statistically? I'm 64, and am as left wing as I have ever been, same is true of many of my contemporaries. My impression is that it's the generation after mine, who never knew of anything before Thatcher, who are the most conservative.
According to this link, you do not hang around the average of your group. Your group and older voted majority Tory. The age bracket you think most conservative swung a bit towards Labour in this last election.
If you graph the age bracket section of the chart, it is a straight line, right pointing arrow to the grave.

--------------------
So goodnight moon, I want the sun
If it's not here soon, I might be done
No it won't be too soon 'til I say goodnight moon

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Dafyd
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quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
quote:
Originally posted by balaam:
quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
quetzalcoatl:
quote:
The Tories could rebuild. Well, pigs can do ballet.
Don't write them off just yet. There's a reason why they are the oldest political party...
Joint Oldest with the Whigs, who are not dead yet.
If I remember my history correctly, the Conservative Party is closer to the old Whigs, who represented the business class, new money and campaigned for Free Trade. The Tories were for landed interests and tariffs to keep produce prices high.
If I remember Wikipedia correctly...
The old Tories eventually died out as a party towards the end of the eighteenth century. However, the Whigs then began to split into factions at the end of the eighteenth century one of which became the new Tory party. After a succession of splits, minor parties, and mergers, the Tory faction turned into the Conservative Party under Victoria and the other faction of the Whigs into the Liberals.

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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Bishops Finger
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A plague on all their houses....

I dunno. I reckon the Land Of Government By Headless Chickens is ready for a change. Mr. Corbyn, over to you.....I wish...

IJ

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stonespring
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quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
quote:
Originally posted by balaam:
quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
quetzalcoatl:
quote:
The Tories could rebuild. Well, pigs can do ballet.
Don't write them off just yet. There's a reason why they are the oldest political party...
Joint Oldest with the Whigs, who are not dead yet.
If I remember my history correctly, the Conservative Party is closer to the old Whigs, who represented the business class, new money and campaigned for Free Trade. The Tories were for landed interests and tariffs to keep produce prices high.
If I remember Wikipedia correctly...
The old Tories eventually died out as a party towards the end of the eighteenth century. However, the Whigs then began to split into factions at the end of the eighteenth century one of which became the new Tory party. After a succession of splits, minor parties, and mergers, the Tory faction turned into the Conservative Party under Victoria and the other faction of the Whigs into the Liberals.

Sorry if someone posted this, but does anyone else see the absurdity in the proposal by sacked Tory Minister Robert Halfon to rename the Conservative Party the "Workers Party"???? If this were done and if it were electorally successful, it would be Orwellian in its redefinition of terms and frightening in its hearkening to the names of fascist parties in pre-World War II Europe. But would people fall for this?
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Gee D
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quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
If I remember my history correctly, the Conservative Party is closer to the old Whigs, who represented the business class, new money and campaigned for Free Trade. The Tories were for landed interests and tariffs to keep produce prices high.

The Whigs were originally the nobles. Hence, they sided with the Puritans in their fights with Charles I as a mens of enhancing their own power Landed gentry were Tories. (Both great simplifications, of course) This pattern started to change with the growth in industry; the new industrialists liked the mercantilist policies of the Whigs and from there rose the Liberal Party, a combination of the old Whigs and these new Liberals. Gladstone's Home Rule changed a lot of this with the split of the Unionists from the Liberals.

You can see this quite clearly in the person of Harold Macmillan. His family (of Scottish crofters) had supported the Liberals but his father and uncle split and became members of the new Unionists - as did the Cavendish family. Macmillan married Lady Dorothy Cavendish - both of whose parents came from staunch Whig families but split from the Liberal Party over Home Rule.

A much more scholarly account is in The Liberal Tradition from Fox to Keynes by Bullock and Shock. Well worth reading.

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bib
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I find all this finger pointing very disturbing. It seems that Theresa May is damned if she does and damned if she doesn't. I'm not sure how I would have reacted in response to all the incidents that have occurred recently in the UK. Maybe I would have reacted in the same way as Ms May. Maybe I would have chosen a different path. It is impossible to please all of the people all of the time.

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Crœsos
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Don't you think she looks tired?

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lilBuddha
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quote:
Originally posted by bib:
I find all this finger pointing very disturbing. It seems that Theresa May is damned if she does and damned if she doesn't.

If this is true, it is because she earned it. With help from her party, but earned no less for that.

--------------------
So goodnight moon, I want the sun
If it's not here soon, I might be done
No it won't be too soon 'til I say goodnight moon

- A. N. Parsley, D. Mcvinni

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Jane R
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This is one of the reasons why they are so good at surviving. All the public anger at the screw-ups is focused on May. When she resigns, the new PM will get a honeymoon period DURING WHICH NOTHING ELSE WILL CHANGE. Jeremy Hunt is still Health Secretary, BoJo is still Foreign Secretary pissing away all the relationships the FO diplomats have built up over the last half century and Michael Gove is back from the dead, raring to trash the environment.

Look at what the government's actually doing, not who's in charge of the whole sorry mess. Does anyone seriously imagine that May could survive for more than five minutes without the approval of the party?

It would be great if nobody fell for the misdirection this time, but I'm not holding my breath.

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Sioni Sais
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quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
This is one of the reasons why they are so good at surviving. All the public anger at the screw-ups is focused on May. When she resigns, the new PM will get a honeymoon period DURING WHICH NOTHING ELSE WILL CHANGE.

It won't be much of a honeymoon if you spend it with Arlene Foster.

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Jane R
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Or Boris Johnson.

M. Barnier may end up having to negotiate with himself after all...

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Penny S
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quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
Don't you think she looks tired?

Funny you should link that. Not absent from my mind, either.
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andras
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quote:
Originally posted by Karl: Liberal Backslider:
quote:
Originally posted by andras:
May's apparent lack of any sort of emotional response to this or any other event, and her famous inability to give a direct answer to any question make me wonder if she has Asperger's or some similar syndrome.

But I am not any sort of expert and don't mind being shot down in flames!

No, I'll just leave it that you're working with the cartoon version of Asperger's.
I don't think so. I made the same suggestion to one of our very highly qualified church psychiatric counsellors, and he said the same thing had crossed his mind some time ago - and he deals with it on a daily basis. But no-one pretends that's a diagnosis.

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Dafyd
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I am beginning to fear May may be somewhat like Pratchett's Lord Vetinari. Nobody wants her in power but everybody wants to keep someone else out of power more than they want to get rid of her.

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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quetzalcoatl
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It also reminds me of zugzwang in chess, where any move that you make is a bad one. In chess, you have to move, so you are compelled to make a bad one, if you are in zugzwang, but I suppose the Tories can try to carry on not making any move.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zugzwang#Fischer_versus_Taimanov.2C_second_match_game

[ 19. June 2017, 19:18: Message edited by: quetzalcoatl ]

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Bishops Finger
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Cosying up to the DUP must surely be zugzwang (what a lovely word, BTW!).

IJ

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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)

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quetzalcoatl
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quote:
Originally posted by Bishops Finger:
Cosying up to the DUP must surely be zugzwang (what a lovely word, BTW!).

IJ

Yes, it arises out of zugzwang, but it still leaves them in it, as can happen in chess.

Well, it gives Labour the chance to make the Tories sweat, but never underestimate the ability of Labour to shoot themselves in both feet, and the head. I expect a right-wing plot quite soon.

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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Ian Climacus

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That is a wondrous word! Thank you.

I guess it takes sheer guts, determination and a bollocks-load of self-belief to reach the top job, or a job near enough in politics, that once you reach the pinnacle you are so convinced you earned it and have the right to be there that quitting would not enter the mind. And I believe this about those on the left as much as I do those on the right.

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Jane R
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Dafyd:
quote:
I am beginning to fear May may be somewhat like Pratchett's Lord Vetinari.
Not in the slightest: Vetinari was competent.
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Anselmina
Ship's barmaid
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quote:
Originally posted by Ian Climacus:
That is a wondrous word! Thank you.

I guess it takes sheer guts, determination and a bollocks-load of self-belief to reach the top job, or a job near enough in politics, that once you reach the pinnacle you are so convinced you earned it and have the right to be there that quitting would not enter the mind. And I believe this about those on the left as much as I do those on the right.

I think this is probably true, too. A kind of supreme unassailable confidence, the assumption of entitlement of possession of power, irrespective of objective ability.

In someone like Churchill, it wins wars, in others it divides continents and kills the welfare system of a nation. A real double-edged sword which is both needed for a nation's success, but fatal when in the wrong hands.

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quetzalcoatl
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quote:
Originally posted by Ian Climacus:
That is a wondrous word! Thank you.

I guess it takes sheer guts, determination and a bollocks-load of self-belief to reach the top job, or a job near enough in politics, that once you reach the pinnacle you are so convinced you earned it and have the right to be there that quitting would not enter the mind. And I believe this about those on the left as much as I do those on the right.

Yes, that's where the analogy with chess breaks down. If you are in an impossible position (zugzwang) in chess, there's nothing you can do. You've probably lost, although some positions like that end in a draw.

But in politics, this isn't the case. For one thing, you can just wait, and hope for better times. I suppose also, in the case of May, you are almost called upon to sit tight, for the good of the party.

Most analogies fail in the end.

[ 20. June 2017, 10:10: Message edited by: quetzalcoatl ]

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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Dafyd
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quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
Dafyd:
quote:
I am beginning to fear May may be somewhat like Pratchett's Lord Vetinari.
Not in the slightest: Vetinari was competent.
I agree that's how it looks. But then Corbyn was doing his level best to appear hopeless until he had lulled May into calling an early election and now it turns out he's a master political strategist. Perhaps May has an even more complicated scheme.

Or perhaps not.

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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Sioni Sais
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A mere ten years after he should have taken the job, it looks like Vince Cable is going to stand for leadership of the LibDems.

Bang goes your two-party system.

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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"

(Paul Sinha, BBC)

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andras
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quote:
Originally posted by Dafyd:
quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
Dafyd:
quote:
I am beginning to fear May may be somewhat like Pratchett's Lord Vetinari.
Not in the slightest: Vetinari was competent.
I agree that's how it looks. But then Corbyn was doing his level best to appear hopeless until he had lulled May into calling an early election and now it turns out he's a master political strategist. Perhaps May has an even more complicated scheme.

Or perhaps not.

Vetinari's insight was that what people most want is for tomorrow to be pretty-much like today; he also encouraged immigration because 'alloys are stronger'.

May, on the other hand...

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Adrian Plass

Posts: 489 | From: Tregaron | Registered: Dec 2001  |  IP: Logged
Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
A mere ten years after he should have taken the job, it looks like Vince Cable is going to stand for leadership of the LibDems.

Bang goes your two-party system.

It was fairly certain he would stand. Though as a leader he could be a mixed bag electorally (which will impact whether it results in a bang to the two-party system).

He has the advantage of having served in Cameron's coalition cabinet

He has the disadvantage of having served in Cameron's coalition cabinet

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Jane R
Shipmate
# 331

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quote:
Vetinari's insight was that what people most want is for tomorrow to be pretty-much like today; he also encouraged immigration because 'alloys are stronger'.
So we're all agreed then; Vetinari for our next PM?

Could be bad news for mime artists...

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alienfromzog

Ship's Alien
# 5327

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It appears that the DUP might not back Mrs May. In which case the Queen's speech vote could be very close.

AFZ

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Schroedinger's cat

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# 64

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quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
It appears that the DUP might not back Mrs May. In which case the Queen's speech vote could be very close.

AFZ

The Tories are demonstrating a complete inability and incompetence at negotiation. They cannot negotiate with the DUP (who are not the most complex or difficult people to negotiate with), so what hope for the Brexit negotiations.

I think the Queens Speech will be voted down, and we will have another election.

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Bishops Finger
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# 5430

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O Jesu, mercy. Ladye, pray......

[Help]

IJ

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rolyn
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# 16840

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quote:
Originally posted by Schroedinger's cat:

I think the Queens Speech will be voted down, and we will have another election.

In which case May will be hay. Dried up in the June heat and blown away.

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Sioni Sais
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# 5713

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quote:
Originally posted by Schroedinger's cat:
quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
It appears that the DUP might not back Mrs May. In which case the Queen's speech vote could be very close.

AFZ

The Tories are demonstrating a complete inability and incompetence at negotiation. They cannot negotiate with the DUP (who are not the most complex or difficult people to negotiate with), so what hope for the Brexit negotiations.

I think the Queens Speech will be voted down, and we will have another election.

I do hope so, as she wants a "Two-year parliament" which would only require a single Queen's Speech to cover the whole period of the Brexit negotiations. By then, if not before, Theresa May will want out of politics for any number of reasons.
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Nicolemr
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# 28

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I googled "Queen's Speech" and found out what it is, but they didn't say what happens if it's voted down. So what does happen? Is it likely?

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alienfromzog

Ship's Alien
# 5327

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quote:
Originally posted by Nicolemr:
I googled "Queen's Speech" and found out what it is, but they didn't say what happens if it's voted down. So what does happen? Is it likely?

The Queen's speech along with budgets are confidence motions so, if it is voted down, the government falls. But that doesn't meant an automatic election. In theory, Corbyn (as leadet of the next biggest group) has 2 weeks to see if he can command the support of parliament.

AFZ

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stonespring
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# 15530

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quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
A mere ten years after he should have taken the job, it looks like Vince Cable is going to stand for leadership of the LibDems.

Bang goes your two-party system.

1. Does anyone who served as a LibDem minister in the Con-LibDem coalition have a chance of ever being PM? (If that's what you mean).

2. How many average UK voters even know who he is?

3. Are you suggesting he might be a kingmaker in a hung parliament? I would think that the LibDems would regard any and all pacts, even super duper unofficial ones as political poison given recent history. And other progressive parties might be wary of pacts with the Lib Dems for precisely this reason.

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mdijon
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# 8520

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quote:
Originally posted by stonespring:
How many average UK voters even know who he is?

He's pretty well known and had a good reputation on the financial crisis. But also somewhat tarnished by the coalition government. I'm not sure he'd be wildly successful in reigniting the Lib-Dems.

They remind me of a Pentecostal sect always banging on about revival that never comes. Since Lloyd George and the 1st World War the declines and false dawns have been pretty consistent. (Ironically it was a lib-con coalition that did him in as well).

Their latest leaders have not really been Lloyd-Georges either. Kennedy drunk was worth the rest of them sober 5 times over. The others have not been transformative and while Cable seems like a good guy, as Sioni says it is about a decade too late for him and I don't see it happening now.

[ 21. June 2017, 06:02: Message edited by: mdijon ]

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mdijon nojidm uoɿıqɯ ɯqıɿou
ɯqıɿou uoɿıqɯ nojidm mdijon

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Jane R
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# 331

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alienfromzog:
quote:
In theory, Corbyn (as leadet of the next biggest group) has 2 weeks to see if he can command the support of parliament.

...and he will only get that if he can persuade a few Conservative backbenchers to support him, which is about as likely as Hell freezing over. So in practice, another election is almost guaranteed - and that's another umpty million pounds down the drain, and all the while the clock is ticking on the Brexit "negotiations".
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agingjb
Shipmate
# 16555

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If 400 MPs across the Commons cannot construct a stable non-partisan government, then we must return to another inconclusive choice between a one-party state and civil war.

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The Midge
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# 2398

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quote:
Originally posted by agingjb:
If 400 MPs across the Commons cannot construct a stable non-partisan government, then we must return to another inconclusive choice between a one-party state and civil war.

And soon we might have another King Charles [Devil]

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quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
alienfromzog:
quote:
In theory, Corbyn (as leadet of the next biggest group) has 2 weeks to see if he can command the support of parliament.

...and he will only get that if he can persuade a few Conservative backbenchers to support him, which is about as likely as Hell freezing over. So in practice, another election is almost guaranteed - and that's another umpty million pounds down the drain, and all the while the clock is ticking on the Brexit "negotiations".
Yes, but you end up with a giant game of poker. The Tories might be reluctant to bring down a Corbyn govt, as an election would follow, in which Corbyn might get a majority, especially if he portrays the Tories as nihilists, or whatever term he chooses.

So they may hold off for a while, no doubt hoping that a Corbyn govt would also attract opprobium. Then it might depend on whether the Tories can win back support. At the moment, they are in a bad place, but hope springs eternal.

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