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Source: (consider it) Thread: Theresa May to resign, when?
quetzalcoatl
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Forgot to say that the DUP probably hate Corbyn, because of his support for Sinn Fein, so they will support May in most things, especially if they see tons of money flowing across the Irish sea.

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Mark Wuntoo
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Whether or not there is a deal with the DUP (and I really hope not) the Queen's Speech will get through ok. The DUP will support it because they fear another election which Jeremy Corbyn would win.

I still think Theresa may will go soon after the speech, although this will not be directly related to the Speech. She'll see it through and then go. What can I do to nudge her? [Big Grin]

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Blessed are the cracked for they let in the light.

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Alan Cresswell

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To hold on in government the Tories have a challenge ahead of them. The first hurdle of which will be the Queens Speech. In a way stating that this will cover two years legislation was a clever move - if they get it voted through they don't need to jump that hurdle again next year (though there will still be budgets to get through), giving them a bit of breathing space before potentially having to go to the country again. Though, it's also risky - they could have probably put together a years legislative programme which avoided all the really difficult commitments in their manifesto (so, no additional austerity, no changes to pensions etc) and put in all the things that they'll get cross party support for (fire safety in high rise buildings, increased support for counter-terrorism etc) and all they'd need would be enough non-Tory MPs to abstain to get it through and then face the difficult parts of the package next year - and a year is a very long time in politics, a few by-elections in their favour and the maths of the chamber changes considerably.

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All I want for Christmas is EU

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Mark Wuntoo
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The body language as the PM and Jeremy Corbyn walked towards the Commons - she obviously wanting to be loved, he doing his best to ignore her.

She knows she's on the way out.

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Blessed are the cracked for they let in the light.

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Sioni Sais
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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Forgot to say that the DUP probably hate Corbyn, because of his support for Sinn Fein, so they will support May in most things, especially if they see tons of money flowing across the Irish sea.

Nothing unusual there. The DUP, as heirs to the opposition to the civil rights movement, are big on hate. It started with the Provos and Sinn Fein, through the British Government, the SDLP and eventually the other Unionist parties.

They may for a while be allies, (weeks? months?) but the cost will be disproportionate.

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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"

(Paul Sinha, BBC)

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Jane R
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2 billion, according to the BBC.
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mdijon
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That's quite a jump between "Taken for granted" and worth 2B GDP.

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mdijon nojidm uoɿıqɯ ɯqıɿou
ɯqıɿou uoɿıqɯ nojidm mdijon

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quetzalcoatl
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quote:
Originally posted by Mark Wuntoo:
The body language as the PM and Jeremy Corbyn walked towards the Commons - she obviously wanting to be loved, he doing his best to ignore her.

She knows she's on the way out.

I missed that, hope to catch it on the news. No doubt her previous body language towards him was utter froideur and hauteur. Hey, these French words are neat.

Apparently, Skinner shouted out, when MPs were invited to the Queen's speech, 'hurry up, the first race at Ascot is 2.30', knowing the Queen's preference for horses over humans. Who can blame her?

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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quetzalcoatl
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Interesting minor point, that the DUP are supposed to have asked the Great Leader to guarantee no poll on a united Ireland. I think that that would be a flagrant breach of GFA, although I don't have it to hand.

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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Callan
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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
alienfromzog:
quote:
In theory, Corbyn (as leadet of the next biggest group) has 2 weeks to see if he can command the support of parliament.

...and he will only get that if he can persuade a few Conservative backbenchers to support him, which is about as likely as Hell freezing over. So in practice, another election is almost guaranteed - and that's another umpty million pounds down the drain, and all the while the clock is ticking on the Brexit "negotiations".
Yes, but you end up with a giant game of poker. The Tories might be reluctant to bring down a Corbyn govt, as an election would follow, in which Corbyn might get a majority, especially if he portrays the Tories as nihilists, or whatever term he chooses.

So they may hold off for a while, no doubt hoping that a Corbyn govt would also attract opprobium. Then it might depend on whether the Tories can win back support. At the moment, they are in a bad place, but hope springs eternal.

Corbyn's Janus-faced approach to the subject of Brexit served him well during the election as Remainiac Ultras turned to him as the nearest way of giving May a kicking whilst those reconciled to departure and Leavers were also able to vote for him. However, as leader of a minority government he would have to negotiate Brexit and get it through the House of Commons.

Incidentally, I have never understood the DUPs "Jeremy Corbyn supported the IRA so we can never support him" line. Dudes, you've been in a power sharing agreement with Martin fucking McGuinness. You've all read your Bibles so remind me what the Good Lord said about camels and gnats.

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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton

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Bishops Finger
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The best moment of the whole day came from Dennis Skinner MP:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-40351816/the-queen-s-speech-mp-tells-black-rod-to-get-skates-on

Apparently, a comment or remark from Mr. Skinner at this point is part of the traditional ceremonial of the occasion...

[Overused]

IJ

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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)

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Leorning Cniht
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quote:
Originally posted by Bishops Finger:

Apparently, a comment or remark from Mr. Skinner at this point is part of the traditional ceremonial of the occasion...

When the Beast finally leaves the house, someone really has to step in as his replacement on these occasions.
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Bishops Finger
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Indeed, but may that day be long delayed...

IJ

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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)

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Callan
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quote:
Originally posted by Bishops Finger:
The best moment of the whole day came from Dennis Skinner MP:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-40351816/the-queen-s-speech-mp-tells-black-rod-to-get-skates-on

Apparently, a comment or remark from Mr. Skinner at this point is part of the traditional ceremonial of the occasion...

[Overused]

IJ

I enjoyed the smirk on the face of Black Rod. I can't help wondering of Brenda muttered something to that effect to him and then The Beast of Bolsover inadvertently repeated it.

I believe that it was Chris Patten who said of Skinner that he had become a British Constitutional Tradition, a bit like the ravens at the Tower of London. And that was before the State Opening, when he looked up at Black Rod and growled "I bet he drinks Carling Black Label". (Product placement Dennis? What are you like?)

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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton

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Bishops Finger
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Oh, and the other Good Thing about the Queen's Speech was that there was no mention of the proposed State Visit of The Odious Orange Ozymandias ( aka Trump).

Hopefully, said Visit is postponed indefinitely, as by the time The Government Of Headless Chickens gets itself sorted out, Ozymandias will have fallen...

IJ

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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)

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Anselmina
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quote:
Originally posted by Callan:

Incidentally, I have never understood the DUPs "Jeremy Corbyn supported the IRA so we can never support him" line. Dudes, you've been in a power sharing agreement with Martin fucking McGuinness. You've all read your Bibles so remind me what the Good Lord said about camels and gnats.

They've read their Bibles. But the bits they tend to remember are usually about what people do with their naughty bits to get them sent to hell. And anything about peacemaking, reconciliation, treating others as you would wish to be treated etc, is meant for the other guy. Not them. They're God's little sunbeams, so they're perfect already. That's why they feel compelled to force their narrow religious beliefs on the whole province.

God knew what he was about when he told 1st AD Christians all same-sex practitioners would go to hell; but He's on kind of shaky ground when He told them to love their enemies. No, couldn't have meant that bit. At least not without some serious revisionist interpretation. [Big Grin]

Never thought I'd say this, but I think I'm missing the Revd Ian Paisley... [Paranoid]

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Irish dogs needing homes! http://www.dogactionwelfaregroup.ie/ Greyhounds and Lurchers are shipped over to England for rehoming too!

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Jane R
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Bishop's Finger:
quote:
Oh, and the other Good Thing about the Queen's Speech was that there was no mention of the proposed State Visit of The Odious Orange Ozymandias ( aka Trump).
I can't believe nobody has mentioned The Hat yet. Speculation over whether this is a coded message to the populace about the Queen's real opinion of Brexit is rife, to the point where the Daily Heil is annoyed about it.

Yes. THE QUEEN HAS ANNOYED THE DAILY MAIL. By wearing a hat.

Glorious.

[ 21. June 2017, 18:52: Message edited by: Jane R ]

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Bishops Finger
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But The Crown went to Parliament, apparently in its own car.... [Eek!]

I thought HM the Q looked rather less regal today than Charles-III-in-waiting, but full marks to her for pi**ing off the Daily Heil.

IJ

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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)

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Jane R
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Yes, the thing about the Crown having to go in a different car was a bit weird. It's probably another message that I don't know enough about royal protocol to decode...
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Doublethink.
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They may have been worried about errant mallets ¹

---

¹ Wikipedia

(Clickbait, what clickbait ...)

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Jane R
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You'd probably need a sledgehammer to flatten the Imperial State Crown... it's a lot bigger than the one Colonel Blood tried to pinch.
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Bishops Finger
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I now understand the allusion to The Royal Hat:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-40356113

[Eek!]

IJ

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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)

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Sioni Sais
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quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
Yes, the thing about the Crown having to go in a different car was a bit weird. It's probably another message that I don't know enough about royal protocol to decode...

Royal Ascot. "How dare you interfere with my race meeting".
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Bishops Finger
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Well, it appears that HM made a very quick change from a blue outfit for Parliament to a yellow outfit for Ascot. It would surely have taken her much longer to get changed out of all those robes she usually wears, not to mention the discomfort of wearing the Crown in this Heat.

[Biased]

IJ

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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)

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Enoch
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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
... Though, it's also risky - they could have probably put together a years legislative programme which avoided all the really difficult commitments in their manifesto (so, no additional austerity, no changes to pensions etc) and put in all the things that they'll get cross party support for (fire safety in high rise buildings, increased support for counter-terrorism etc)

They haven't got a mandate to implement their manifesto. They've only got authority to introduce legislation that they think most of the electorate will accept.

The same would apply to Labour if it were to form a minority administration in the present Parliament much though Momentum and their ilk might squeal otherwise.
quote:
... a few by-elections in their favour and the maths of the chamber changes considerably.

If.

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Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson

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Alan Cresswell

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quote:
Originally posted by Enoch:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
... Though, it's also risky - they could have probably put together a years legislative programme which avoided all the really difficult commitments in their manifesto (so, no additional austerity, no changes to pensions etc) and put in all the things that they'll get cross party support for (fire safety in high rise buildings, increased support for counter-terrorism etc)

They haven't got a mandate to implement their manifesto. They've only got authority to introduce legislation that they think most of the electorate will accept.

The same would apply to Labour if it were to form a minority administration in the present Parliament much though Momentum and their ilk might squeal otherwise.

We can bandy around the difference between "mandate" and "authority" - I've seen no indication that the current Conservative Party leadership would know a mandate if tripped over it. But, that's an aside.

I generally agree with you. Without getting a majority of seats the Tories have been given a get-out from implementing what were clearly unpopular ideas. So, they can go for what they think will be most widely accepted policies.

Of course, what the Tories think will be the most widely accepted policy ideas and what Labour think will be the most widely accepted policies will differ, and the views of the SNP/PC/Greens/NI parties will be different again. There is going to be a set of policies on which Conservative and Labour are in broad agreement, and another set where the Conservatives and other parties are in agreement (probably a very small set where everyone agrees).

My point was that if the Conservatives concentrate on those policies where there is cross-party agreement that these would be widely supported by the electorate in this Queens Speech then there would be a reasonable chance that they might get sufficient cross-party support (even by abstention) to get it voted through. As they progress through their term they will a) start exhausting that list of policies which are agreed will be widely accepted by the electorate and b) the time since the election will make the question of whether something would be acceptable harder to judge - and hence they're less likely to get the cross party support to get a Queens Speech voted through.

At the moment all the parties are aware that the views of Brenda from Bristol are very common, and another general election this year will go down like a lead balloon with a large portion of the electorate who are likely to punish the party that's seen as causing it to be called. Voting down a Queens Speech (or, even the next budget) just because they have the numbers to do so won't go down well IMO, whereas if a party can vote that down on the basis of a principalled objection to one or more policies that they strongly oppose then their supporters rallying behind them might offset the "not another one" effect. It's a gamble, but the safest course for Mrs May would be to write a Queens Speech that can get enough cross-party support to be voted through, which means ditching a lot of stuff that will raise hackles in the Opposition (which I subsequently see has more or less happened, so no new Grammar Schools etc), and then see how the winds fare when she gets to write the next one.

quote:

quote:
... a few by-elections in their favour and the maths of the chamber changes considerably.

If.
Politics is full of uncertainty. And, one of the ways things may change is through by-elections. Now, I doubt at the moment the Tories would pull any seats back from opposition parties, the optics suggest that it's more likely to swing the other way. But, anything is possible. The fact is that if the GE had returned 2-3 more Conservative seats they probably could have struggled through without feeling the need to sweet-talk the DUP, if there had been 2-3 less Conservative seats then sweet-talking the DUP would still not have given them enough. And, a couple of years is enough time for a few by-elections that could push things either way.

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All I want for Christmas is EU

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Matt Black

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quote:
Originally posted by Bishops Finger:


I thought HM the Q looked rather less regal today than Charles-III-in-waiting,

Meme doing the rounds on social media: "Bring Your Child to Work Day".

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"Protestant and Reformed, according to the Tradition of the ancient Catholic Church" - + John Cosin (1594-1672)

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Bishops Finger
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[Killing me]

O, how I wish I'd thought of that!

IJ

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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)

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andras
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Traditionally, British voters have tended to punish governments that they feel are 'hanging on' - which May's Tories certainly are. She will remain in office - but barely in power - as long as the opposing factions in her party are more frightened of the other faction gaining power than they are of them all getting dumped in an election.

But an election there will surely have to be; I'll be astonished if there isn't one in October, right after the Party Conferences.

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God's on holiday.
(Why borrow a cat?)
Adrian Plass

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quetzalcoatl
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You would normally expect another election within a year, and you would expect Labour to win. However, these are not normal times, so all kinds of scenarios seem possible. The Tories might regenerate, Labour might fall victim to plotting again. Who knows.

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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Pigwidgeon

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quote:
Originally posted by Matt Black:
quote:
Originally posted by Bishops Finger:


I thought HM the Q looked rather less regal today than Charles-III-in-waiting,

Meme doing the rounds on social media: "Bring Your Child to Work Day".
[Killing me]

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Don't keep calm. Go change the world.

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MarsmanTJ
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I have a new prediction. She will stay through the Brexit negotiations. When she realises what a colossal mess she and the Tories will have made of them (and as the public realises this, the growing public anger) she will resign, leaving the country in an even worse mess than it already was, and no one to easily pick up the pieces. This will cause the Brexit-related economic weaknesses to turn into catastrophes, and she will blame the fact she wasn't given an overwhelming majority rather than her own incompetence. We will have an election that Labour will win by a landslide, but with a Tory-negotiated Brexit that forces the whole country into a decade long recession, as we have no capital left with anyone who might be minded to help us.
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lilBuddha
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quote:
Originally posted by MarsmanTJ:
I have a new prediction. She will stay through the Brexit negotiations. When she realises what a colossal mess she and the Tories will have made of them (and as the public realises this, the growing public anger) she will resign, leaving the country in an even worse mess than it already was, and no one to easily pick up the pieces. This will cause the Brexit-related economic weaknesses to turn into catastrophes, and she will blame the fact she wasn't given an overwhelming majority rather than her own incompetence. We will have an election that Labour will win by a landslide, but with a Tory-negotiated Brexit that forces the whole country into a decade long recession, as we have no capital left with anyone who might be minded to help us.

Thank you for this much needed positive outlook!

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So goodnight moon, I want the sun
If it's not here soon, I might be done
No it won't be too soon 'til I say goodnight moon

- A. N. Parsley, D. Mcvinni

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Mark Wuntoo
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quote:
Originally posted by MarsmanTJ:
.... and she will blame the fact she wasn't given an overwhelming majority rather than her own incompetence. ...

I don't get this. How does her majority make any difference? She is strong and stable [Ultra confused] .

The meltdown has already begun. She has agreed that thousands of EU people in UK will be given special rights to stay (that's essential, of course). But she has said nothing that I have heard about replacing the thousands who already have left or who will leave in the next two years. We need these people. (And, of course, they need us.)

She cannot be serious about staying a further two years? Can she? [Waterworks]

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Blessed are the cracked for they let in the light.

Posts: 1917 | From: Somewhere else. | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
Sioni Sais
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# 5713

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quote:
Originally posted by MarsmanTJ:
... We will have an election that Labour will win by a landslide, but with a Tory-negotiated Brexit that forces the whole country into a decade long recession, as we have no capital left with anyone who might be minded to help us.

What? Another decade long recession?

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chris stiles
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# 12641

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quote:
Originally posted by MarsmanTJ:
as we have no capital left with anyone who might be minded to help us.

Which was one of my thoughts pre-election; the supposedly 'serious' and 'strong and stable' party had done little since the 'Leave' vote, bar prevaricate on a massive scale, and piss off anyone in the EU who might have had good will towards the UK.
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andras
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So May has offered the EU a 'deal' on citizens' rights which falls far short of what she should in decency have given. Typical of her - offer very little, lie about it by claiming that it's a lot, and then prevaricate and refuse to answer questions. Lord, I'm getting to loathe that woman.

And why should anyone trust anything she says? Frankly I wouldn't be inclined to believe her if she were to swear on a pile of Bibles that the earth is round.

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quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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Well, she is a bad liar, where some politicians are good ones. I still don't really understand how her image has shifted in a few weeks from honeymoon to nightmare. I suppose people are in a volatile mood today, febrile maybe a better word.

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Sioni Sais
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# 5713

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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Well, she is a bad liar, where some politicians are good ones. I still don't really understand how her image has shifted in a few weeks from honeymoon to nightmare. I suppose people are in a volatile mood today, febrile maybe a better word.

I don't think there was ever a honeymoon. Possibly a dirty weekend, but no more than that.

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quetzalcoatl
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Yes, a one-night stand. I suppose her first speech in Downing St impressed plenty of people, but after that, it all went squish.

Wow, does Corbyn really want to take this pile of poo on? I mean Brexit, Grenfell, austerity, etc. It could wreck Labour as well.

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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mdijon
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quote:
Originally posted by andras:
Lord, I'm getting to loathe that woman.

I'm ahead of you.

quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
I still don't really understand how her image has shifted in a few weeks from honeymoon to nightmare.

A series of U turns when the campaigning USP was stability, a wooden manner and lack of empathy both in policy and in demeanour. Isn't that enough?

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mdijon nojidm uoɿıqɯ ɯqıɿou
ɯqıɿou uoɿıqɯ nojidm mdijon

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quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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quote:
Originally posted by mdijon:
quote:
Originally posted by andras:
Lord, I'm getting to loathe that woman.

I'm ahead of you.

quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
I still don't really understand how her image has shifted in a few weeks from honeymoon to nightmare.

A series of U turns when the campaigning USP was stability, a wooden manner and lack of empathy both in policy and in demeanour. Isn't that enough?

Not sure. I would say that she's also misjudged the national mood, which is mighty febrile, after terrorist attacks, Grenfell, Brexit, etc.

For example, after the first terrorist attack, I just thought that this is Tory territory, law and order, but it backfired, especially with the awareness of police cuts etc. I think austerity is producing a very bad hangover, and the Tories underestimated this. Whether or not Corbyn was lucky, or has an intuitive ability, dunno.

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mdijon
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Corbyn hasn't been all that good at intuitive guessing between 1983 and 2015. I think it's more that he's in the right place at the right time and the moment has come for his ideas. For stability of a political line you can't do much better than Corbyn.

It's easy to try and make political narratives fit deterministic explanations (as I just did). In reality there is probably tremendous stochasticity.

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mdijon nojidm uoɿıqɯ ɯqıɿou
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Ricardus
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# 8757

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I had a fair amount of time for Mrs May when she first became PM, but I think a lot of that was sheer relief that she wasn't Dr Fox, Mr Johnson, Mr Gove, Mr Crabbe, Ms Leadsom, or a lengthy period of interregnum. When she had to stand on her own merits, she collapsed in my estimation.

In this I suspect I am not atypical of the voting population.

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quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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quote:
Originally posted by mdijon:
Corbyn hasn't been all that good at intuitive guessing between 1983 and 2015. I think it's more that he's in the right place at the right time and the moment has come for his ideas. For stability of a political line you can't do much better than Corbyn.

It's easy to try and make political narratives fit deterministic explanations (as I just did). In reality there is probably tremendous stochasticity.

Yes, good points. I think Corbyn has shown resolve under fire, whereas May has buckled. One of those peculiar ironies in politics, he looked so weak. But then if elected, Labour may well make a total mess of it.

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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error.

[ 23. June 2017, 12:10: Message edited by: quetzalcoatl ]

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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andras
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# 2065

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It now transpires that the vile May actually blocked a unilateral deal to secure the future of EU citizens before she became PM; she was the only cabinet minister to do so. Details here in a Guardian article.

What a nasty piece of work she is.

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God's on holiday.
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Adrian Plass

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Rocinante
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# 18541

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quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
quote:
Originally posted by MarsmanTJ:
... We will have an election that Labour will win by a landslide, but with a Tory-negotiated Brexit that forces the whole country into a decade long recession, as we have no capital left with anyone who might be minded to help us.

What? Another decade long recession?
I think from now on we can expect decade-long recessions to come along about once every ten years.

If Labour do win an election this year or in two years' time, they may well mess up. We may have reached a point in our national life from which there are no good outcomes possible for a very long time, whoever is in charge and whatever they do. Personally I think that Corbyn's old-school social democratic policies offer the best chance of a good outcome, but there are no guarantees.

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quetzalcoatl
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# 16740

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I can never remember the point in the business cycle where Keynesian remedies are appropriate, but you might think, that this is one of them.

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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Alan Cresswell

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# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
a couple of years is enough time for a few by-elections that could push things either way.

And, those by-elections may not be that far off. Should someone tell the Tories that if they're going to break the election rules they should at least win the election?

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All I want for Christmas is EU

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