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Source: (consider it) Thread: Shake it all about: Brexit thread II
betjemaniac
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quote:
Originally posted by mdijon:
quote:
Originally posted by rolyn:
The reality of 2016's political upheavals, both here and in the US, could turn out be that of a mirage-- the product of an Internet fuelled hype machine getting folks all riled up.

But at some point the hype becomes reality. Political realities are what people think, what they decide and how they express it. If that becomes hyped up and more toxic than before, then one can't characterise that as a mirage underneath which everyone is as sober as they always were.

The Brexit vote seemed to me to bring a new level of division, and I'm not sure it was all online. I don't know anyone who voted brexit (or who admits to it). I know plenty of people that vote for either party and we occasionally discuss it. The absence of direct discussions with people I knew who were voting for Brexit seems to be a shared experience by many I talk to. Yet clearly the country is full of quite a few people who voted brexit.

This suggests to me a more divided society along brexit lines than we had for party politics.

or, and this is perhaps equally problematic, the tone of public debate has been so shameful from both sides all the way through that there's a substantial constituency of "voted Brexit but won't admit to it because it's not the done thing in polite society."

I've posted on this phenomenon much earlier in this thread, but yet again over Christmas I've had 3 instances of people quite unexpectedly coming out with having voted to Leave (because they've had a few drinks, they think they're safe to admit it, etc). These are people who not only you would assume voted Remain, but also who have been *saying* they voted Remain since the vote.

IME/IMO, there's an awful lot of this going on - people voting to Leave and being happy that the vote went that way, but in public claiming they had nothing to do with it (whether because they don't want to lose their friends, or think it's not worth the argument in the pub). Much the same thing of course happens with those people who claim to have never voted Tory in their lives, but regularly put their cross down for the Conservatives in the privacy of the Polling Booth.

If something's not the done thing in polite British middle class society, then people will cheerfully deny doing it even as they do it.

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And is it true? For if it is....

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lilBuddha
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That is not an or, but an and. Still a sad comment on society, though.

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So goodnight moon, I want the sun
If it's not here soon, I might be done
No it won't be too soon 'til I say goodnight moon

- A. N. Parsley, D. Mcvinni

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rolyn
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And we saw the exact same phenomenon in the US with people not wanting to admit openly they were supporting trump. This was happening early on in the campaign and I imagine the same is true now, as you are finding here, with people reluctant to actually admit to voting for him.

Maybe when our base emotions are activated or touched/legitimised by someone or something there is a degree of inner shame going on, we want to hide it. Possibly similar, in a much lesser way, to a soldier never talking about what they did in a war? Dunno, just guessing at something that is strangely intriguing.

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Change is the only certainty of existence

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Alan Cresswell

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quote:
Originally posted by mdijon:
The Brexit vote seemed to me to bring a new level of division, and I'm not sure it was all online. I don't know anyone who voted brexit (or who admits to it). I know plenty of people that vote for either party and we occasionally discuss it. The absence of direct discussions with people I knew who were voting for Brexit seems to be a shared experience by many I talk to. Yet clearly the country is full of quite a few people who voted brexit.

This suggests to me a more divided society along brexit lines than we had for party politics.

I largely concur with this, and the observation that there are many who voted Leave but are too ashamed to admit it (which, is part of the same division). I'm not sure it's a new division, rather that the division falls along existing boundaries within our society.

Like mdijon, I don't personally know anyone who voted Leave (some might have, but are ashamed to admit it because it's not what one admits to in the social circles they move in). The means the division between those who voted Leave and Remain falls somewhere outwith my social group (which is middle class, largely university educated, biased towards living in Scotland). Though the divisions between parties also approximately follow social divisions (certainly for the Labour-Conservative one), and there is occasionally the same stigma to someone who's political loyalty crosses those boundaries, it does feel like a different sort of division.

Maybe it's because it's binary. With parties someone in a Labour supporting social group who is dissatisfied with Labour has the option of voting Green or LibDem (or SNP etc where appropriate), or a smaller party or independent without needing to cross all the way over to the Tories. And, each party is itself a broad spectrum of political opinions. The result is that there are always bridges between the parts of society that largely vote differently. The referendum didn't provide for any middle ground, no respectable alternative to voting for "them" (whoever that happens to be in any social group), and no option for people to be bridges between groups who voted differently. It took a broad spectrum of views from "the UK should move into further political union with our EU partners" to "the EU is deeply flawed and in need of major reform but it's still the best for the UK" and pushed it into "Remain". Likewise the spectrum of views from "The EU is a largely beneficial institution and we value the access to markets and labour, but on balance the UK should distance itself from political union" to "we hate all foreigners, Britain is an imperial world power and we should be Great Again on our own and bugger the rest" was pushed together into "Leave".

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

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Rocinante
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Yes, the Leave and Remain votes represented very broad coalitions, just as most political parties do. The difference between the leave win in the referendum and a party winning a general election is that a general election win allows you to implement a range of policies which will hopefully include something for all the people who voted for you (and some who didn't). As soon as a particular form of Brexit is chosen and announced, at least half the leave voters will be disappointed (some will be enraged) and the coalition will break up.

The same effect might have occurred if remain had won, but it wouldn't have been so marked as we wouldn't have had to immediately choose a particular form of "remain".

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balaam

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quote:
Originally posted by Rocinante:
The same effect might have occurred if remain had won, but it wouldn't have been so marked as we wouldn't have had to immediately choose a particular form of "remain".

Not really.

There are not so many different degrees of, "leave things as they are."

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Fearfully and wonderfully mad

ن
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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:

If something's not the done thing in polite British middle class society, then people will cheerfully deny doing it even as they do it.

Perhaps the problem lies more in the fact that there wasn't a 'polite middle class' justification for the vote that they can articulate?
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lilBuddha
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Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
quote:
I'm not sure it's a new division, rather that the division falls along existing boundaries within our society.
IMO, it is revealing, difining and deepening those divisions. The referendum was always going to do this, but it needn't have been so bad. The timing could barely have been worse, it was a colossal cock up.

--------------------
So goodnight moon, I want the sun
If it's not here soon, I might be done
No it won't be too soon 'til I say goodnight moon

- A. N. Parsley, D. Mcvinni

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Callan
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Originally posted by Betjemaniac:

quote:
IME/IMO, there's an awful lot of this going on - people voting to Leave and being happy that the vote went that way, but in public claiming they had nothing to do with it (whether because they don't want to lose their friends, or think it's not worth the argument in the pub). Much the same thing of course happens with those people who claim to have never voted Tory in their lives, but regularly put their cross down for the Conservatives in the privacy of the Polling Booth.
Shades of 1992. Prior to the election polls registered a Labour victory or hung parliament. When people got to the privacy of the ballot box, they decided that, actually, they trusted that nice Mr Major rather more than Mr Kinnock. After Sterling was forced out of the ERM polling, which asked as a control, "who did you vote for in the last General Election" consistently showed that the Labour Party had won the 1992 General Election comfortably. This demonstrates two things, I think. Firstly some political choices are popular but "not done", at least officially. Secondly, success has a million fathers but failure is an orphan. If the Leavers achieve all that they claim is possible and negotiate a trade deal with Europe, followed by a series of successful treaties with other countries then polls will probably show that only 22% of the electorate voted remain. If, OTOH, it all goes Pete Tong, polls will repeatedly show that a convincing majority of the electorate voted Remain. I think the latter is the more plausible scenario but I think that people misremembering how they voted, depending on the outcome is more likely than either "good Brexit" or "bad Brexit".

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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton

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Ricardus
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quote:
Originally posted by Louise:
Sorry for hit and run itty-bitty posting, Ricardus - festivities and visitors intervene.

Same here ...

You are right about the other non-Eurozone EU states - however I don't think any of them went into accession negotiations explicitly saying that they would render unenforceable their obligation to adopt the euro. Sweden I think has the problem that the political classes are more Europhile than the general population, and the economies of the ex-Communist states were sufficiently divergent from the rest of the EU that their politicians could legitimately regard euro membership as a problem for someone else further down the line.

That said - I am bashing the SNP because it suits my argument, but I don't think they were obviously wrong - I think their approach wasn't necessarily better than the Brexiteers' approach, but I don't think it was obviously worse either.
quote:
Originally posted by Humble Servant:
At that point we will start negotiations about how we trade with the bloc. These will no doubt be as protracted as those with the USA have been

I don't think the TTIP deal is a fair comparison. As AFZ said earlier, trade deals are more about standards than tariffs, and generally what takes up time is arguing over standardisation. (One of the criticisms I hear of TTIP - setting aside corporate star chambers - is that European standards are higher than American standards in certain crucial industries, so either Europeans must accept lower standards or else Americans must find their industries hamstrung by greater regulatory burdens.) In the case of EU-UK trade relations, standards are already harmonised, so no-one need accept any changes to standards that make their situation worse than at present.

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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

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Ricardus
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quote:
Originally posted by mdijon:
I don't know anyone who voted brexit (or who admits to it).

That is interesting because I know plenty, none of whom hid it, and none of them are stupid or insular or xenophobic. They include people with Czech, Polish, and Turkish spouses. Maybe this is why I have more time for the Leave arguments than many on this thread.

The problem, as I see it, is that the campaign literature on both sides was simplified to the point of stupidity. This gives people the illusion that the people in the other camp must be stupid.

For example: the Remain campaign said that three million jobs would be at risk if we left the EU, and this figure was quite explicitly identified as the number of jobs connected to exporting to the EU. Now as it stands this is nonsense, because even the worst projections from the Remain camp don't have EU exports falling to zero. The sensible form of this argument is that anything that hampers our ability to export will cause job losses in the export sector, and anything that causes an economic shock will cause job losses all through the system, and probably in unexpected places*.

Now my guess is that most Remain supporters, because we are already predisposed to accept the Remain campaign's arguments, automatically heard the sensible form of the argument when we saw the stupid form. If so, I think an exercise of charity might allow us to conclude that Leave supporters also saw sensible arguments hidden behind the stupid arguments that their campaign presented.


* One can also argue that there's a difference between three million jobs being at risk and three million jobs being lost, but then we are in the land of weasel words.

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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:
quote:
Originally posted by mdijon:
I don't know anyone who voted brexit (or who admits to it).

That is interesting because I know plenty, none of whom hid it, and none of them are stupid or insular or xenophobic. They include people with Czech, Polish, and Turkish spouses. Maybe this is why I have more time for the Leave arguments than many on this thread.

I know a number of people who voted leave, none of whom are normally stupid, insular or xenophobic.

Nevertheless some of whom posted fairly silly (and often offensive) arguments for Leave in various social media forums (the Turkey poster by the Vote.Leave campaign as an example). A few had fairly well reasoned arguments for why they wanted to leave, one of them abstained in the end as he had always been pro-EFTA and was dismayed at the direction in which the Leave camp was heading. As to the rest I was able to have conversations with - a number blamed 'excessive immigration', and quite a few at the end seemed to jump to a fairly irrational fear of Muslims. A small number of those were second generation migrants themselves (reflecting my particular social circle).

Ironically, one of the most vocal of the 'excessive immigration from the EU' lot has just woken up to the fact that this might mean that his EU partner experiences difficulty staying in the UK in future.

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lilBuddha
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quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:

That said - I am bashing the SNP because it suits my argument, but I don't think they were obviously wrong - I think their approach wasn't necessarily better than the Brexiteers' approach, but I don't think it was obviously worse either.

Again, this is a farcical comparison. Whilst the Pro independence campaign wasn't perfect, it did have some real reasoning. Something that cannot be said for the Brexit campaign.

quote:
They include people with Czech, Polish, and Turkish spouses. Maybe this is why I have more time for the Leave arguments than many on this thread
"I've got mine, now piss off" is not an uncommon thing. Especially as the strongest vitriol was anti-Muslim.
As chris stiles points out, it'll bite more people in the arse than think it will.

--------------------
So goodnight moon, I want the sun
If it's not here soon, I might be done
No it won't be too soon 'til I say goodnight moon

- A. N. Parsley, D. Mcvinni

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Sioni Sais
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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:

If something's not the done thing in polite British middle class society, then people will cheerfully deny doing it even as they do it.

Perhaps the problem lies more in the fact that there wasn't a 'polite middle class' justification for the vote that they can articulate?
Britain's "Polite middle-class" is small. What it does have is a very large white-collar, lower middle-class that will believe everything the Daily Mail prints. Not Conservative, not even conservative, just suspicious of anything unlike itself.

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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"

(Paul Sinha, BBC)

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lowlands_boy
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The UK ambassador to the EU has resigned today .

quote:
Sir Ivan, who was appointed to the role of permanent representative by David Cameron in 2013, had been expected to play a key role in Brexit talks expected to start within months.
The Foreign Office has not given reasons for his departure.

I'm quite happy to speculate on his reasons.

1. He thinks the whole thing will be a complete pigs breakfast for ever.
or perhaps
2. He's planning on trousering some truly eye watering consultancy fees and wants to become eligible to do so as soon as possible.

or perhaps both.

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I thought I should update my signature line....

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Jane R
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or 3. He can't do his job properly because the government are not interested in listening to anything but the most optimistic speculation on what happens next.

He'll be crying all the way to the bank if the government finds they need to rehire him as a consultant, but they don't seem interested in listening to people who disagree with them (see above) so I hope he's not holding his breath.

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lowlands_boy
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quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
or 3. He can't do his job properly because the government are not interested in listening to anything but the most optimistic speculation on what happens next.

He'll be crying all the way to the bank if the government finds they need to rehire him as a consultant, but they don't seem interested in listening to people who disagree with them (see above) so I hope he's not holding his breath.

I don't think it's only the government who'll be interested in hiring someone with his background...

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I thought I should update my signature line....

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fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
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Posted by Sioni:
quote:

Britain's "Polite middle-class" is small.

I'm quoting this more for the thread of discussion rather than this quote itself. Overall, it seems that there is a strange reluctance to say that the 'middle classes' and the 'polite' ones and the 'upper' ones might be in any way racist and I think it is very difficult to argue that the leave campaign didn't have xenophobia and racism as part of its arsenal in arguments and a core element of its reasoning. Some throughout the thread seem to almost express surprise that such a social grouping could vote on such a basis in secret. How could the wealthy, well educated masses vote for such a thing? Well, that strikes me as the height of naivitie. What little experience of such social groups has impressed upon me is that the 'polite', 'middle' and 'upper' folks can be just as racist, xenophobic and rancid as the great unwashed - in many ways it can be a lot worse because everyone around them are too polite to challenge them on it.

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

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Sioni Sais
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quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Posted by Sioni:
quote:

Britain's "Polite middle-class" is small.

I'm quoting this more for the thread of discussion rather than this quote itself. Overall, it seems that there is a strange reluctance to say that the 'middle classes' and the 'polite' ones and the 'upper' ones might be in any way racist and I think it is very difficult to argue that the leave campaign didn't have xenophobia and racism as part of its arsenal in arguments and a core element of its reasoning. Some throughout the thread seem to almost express surprise that such a social grouping could vote on such a basis in secret. How could the wealthy, well educated masses vote for such a thing? Well, that strikes me as the height of naivitie. What little experience of such social groups has impressed upon me is that the 'polite', 'middle' and 'upper' folks can be just as racist, xenophobic and rancid as the great unwashed - in many ways it can be a lot worse because everyone around them are too polite to challenge them on it.
Probably true. Someone (can't remember who) suggested that if you bombed the West Car Park at Twickenham rugby ground at the conclusion of the Middlesex Sevens tournament you could wipeout British fascism.

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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"

(Paul Sinha, BBC)

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Sioni Sais
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quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
quote:
Originally posted by Jane R:
or 3. He can't do his job properly because the government are not interested in listening to anything but the most optimistic speculation on what happens next.

He'll be crying all the way to the bank if the government finds they need to rehire him as a consultant, but they don't seem interested in listening to people who disagree with them (see above) so I hope he's not holding his breath.

I don't think it's only the government who'll be interested in hiring someone with his background...
The European Commission might hire him. I think he will have to take a year out for that to be allowed, but little will happen in the meantime.

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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"

(Paul Sinha, BBC)

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
What little experience of such social groups has impressed upon me is that the 'polite', 'middle' and 'upper' folks can be just as racist, xenophobic and rancid as the great unwashed - in many ways it can be a lot worse because everyone around them are too polite to challenge them on it.

Absolutely, and equally a veneer of politeness can cover many things - which is one reason I used quotes above.
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Ricardus
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quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
Whilst the Pro independence campaign wasn't perfect, it did have some real reasoning. Something that cannot be said for the Brexit campaign.

Neither campaign had any substance if judged solely by their campaign literature.
quote:
"I've got mine, now piss off" is not an uncommon thing. Especially as the strongest vitriol was anti-Muslim.
The Left are supposed to be going through a soul-searching exercise at the moment to understand why so many people fail to see that we are self-evidently right. I would suggest that one way NOT to do this is by attributing impure motives to people you've never met.

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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

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Ricardus
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Apologies, by 'neither campaign' I mean neither the Leave nor the Remain campaign.

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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

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Barnabas62
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quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
...the 'polite', 'middle' and 'upper' folks can be just as racist, xenophobic and rancid as the great unwashed - in many ways it can be a lot worse because everyone around them are too polite to challenge them on it.

Pretty much nailed it. But clearly it's not just a UK phenomenon.

The Ugly European is on the march.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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fletcher christian

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Posted by Barnabas:
quote:

But clearly it's not just a UK phenomenon.

Absolutely not. It feels very much like the west wants to push the self destruct button and not just stroke it. But there is a lot of stroking and posturing going on elsewhere. Look at Le Pencil in France, the possibility of shifting politics in Germany, the appearance of racist gangs in Finland, the pathetic fraternisation of Sinn Fein in Ireland to name but a few.

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

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Barnabas62
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A really good letter.

Particularly these hopes.

quote:
I hope you will continue to challenge ill-founded arguments and muddled thinking and that you will never be afraid to speak the truth to those in power.

I hope that you will support each other in those difficult moments where you have to deliver messages that are disagreeable to those who need to hear them.

I'm not sure No 10 is listening. I fear that Theresa May believes that a rabbit may yet be pulled out of the hat, but I'll eat my hat if there is a rabbit to be found. The diplomats and negotiators - well at least those with some practical understanding - realise that the process is all about damage limitation now.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Rocinante
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Ian Duncan Smith was on Radio 4 this morning, doing his best to dismiss Rogers' resignation as a little local difficulty. "He was going anyway in 6 months so it doesn't matter", seems to be the party line. I'm sure that if Rogers thought he could do any good he could have been persuaded to stay on, but it's clear that May wants a yes-person in charge.

When your best negotiator resigns before the negotiation starts, you can be pretty sure your position is weak.

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Alan Cresswell

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# 31

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It doesn't appear that anyone had approached him about extending his appointment for a further 12-18 months to allow him to be in post throughout the Brexit negotiations. If the government didn't want him in place throughout the process then they presumably have no problem with him stepping down now to allow someone to be in post for the whole of that period, even if that's some one significantly less qualified and experienced.

Though probably most of the team will turn over during the full duration of Brexit and negotiating a new relationship with the EU. Very few people stay in such positions for a decade or more.

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

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mdijon
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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Very few people stay in such positions for a decade or more.

Snort. Apparently Lineker provoked a reaction with his "That's not fair, most of the people who voted for it will be dead by then" quip. Kinda true though.

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Posts: 12207 | From: UK | Registered: Sep 2004  |  IP: Logged
Barnabas62
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Shan Morgan was a significant loss as well.

The problem with politically-based policies is that if they really are impossible to achieve, the diplomats and civil servants have no option but to play "appearances and deceptions". In other words, they become complicit in spinning the real state of affairs for public and political-party consumption.

Given the technical complexity of the unpicking processes which will be involved in any version of Brexit, a thick layer of "essential spin" on the top seems likely to add cognitive dissonance to cognitive dissonance for the diplomats and negotiators. In such circumstances, it's going to be hard for anyone to keep a clear head. Fog is disorientating.

But i wouldn't expect IDS to understand that. I'm beginning to wonder if Theresa May understands it.

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:

I'm not sure No 10 is listening. I fear that Theresa May believes that a rabbit may yet be pulled out of the hat

I think she is someone who is normally extremely risk averse, who has now been forced by circumstances to turn into Mr Micawber.
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Barnabas62
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quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:

I'm not sure No 10 is listening. I fear that Theresa May believes that a rabbit may yet be pulled out of the hat

I think she is someone who is normally extremely risk averse, who has now been forced by circumstances to turn into Mr Micawber.
Yes. Classic conservatives are normally averse to anything which looks like a step in the dark. So risk-aversion is indeed the norm.

An appropriate Micawber quote

quote:
I have no doubt I shall, please Heaven, begin to be more beforehand with the world, and to live in a perfectly new manner, if -if, in short, anything turns up.


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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Alan Cresswell

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# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by mdijon:
quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Very few people stay in such positions for a decade or more.

Snort. Apparently Lineker provoked a reaction with his "That's not fair, most of the people who voted for it will be dead by then" quip. Kinda true though.
Well, a large number of people who voted to leave the EU (ie: excluding those who voted Leave just to say "fuck you" to the politicians) won't have the government even asking for what they thought they were voting for. We're heading for some form of Brexit that the majority of the UK electorate didn't vote for in June. And, they call it democracy.

But, there's nothing new in acknowledging that the final relationship between the UK and EU will take more than 18 months to sort out. There's an off-chance that if the UK government went into negotiations asking for the same relationship as an existing treaty (eg: to take the treaties between Norway and the EU, and do nothing more than replace "Norway" with "UK") then it might be possible to conclude that within 18 months of triggering A50 - of course, that also includes having no specific treaty with the EU and trading on the same terms as any other country without a specific deal. Anyone who thinks an international treaty covering trade can be cooked up within 18 months knows nothing about international relations - and, if you add in immigration, science and technology collaboration, coordination on trans-border issues such as the environment or fish stocks ... well, not only is 18 months out the window, 18 years could be challenging.

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

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Sioni Sais
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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:

I'm not sure No 10 is listening. I fear that Theresa May believes that a rabbit may yet be pulled out of the hat

I think she is someone who is normally extremely risk averse, who has now been forced by circumstances to turn into Mr Micawber.
Yes. Classic conservatives are normally averse to anything which looks like a step in the dark. So risk-aversion is indeed the norm.


Risk-aversion is only part of the story: if risks can be mitigated by kicking others in the teeth, few can resist the temptation.

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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"

(Paul Sinha, BBC)

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Barnabas62
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I don't think the current government believes it has the mandate to go for Norway Mark 2. More's the pity.

But I agree with Alan that anything other than the Norway boilerplate solution has absolutely no chance of being done and dusted in 18 months.

Maybe the government could present Norway Mark 2 as the transitional solution ("not ideal but at least providing some short term stability") while protracted negotiations continue? While the EU as a whole comes to terms with resurgent nationalism (which seems destined to kill off further federal intergration for the foreseeable future), the Germans and the French may be happy to park Brexit in some sort of pro-tem political siding.

But I wonder if the UK Government has got the sense to try to play that game.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Alan Cresswell

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# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
I don't think the current government believes it has the mandate to go for Norway Mark 2.

I don't think the current government has a mandate for any particular version of Brexit - regardless of what they might believe. They can't point to the referendum result, because the question wasn't specific enough to know what people actually voted for. They can't appeal to their 2015 manifesto, because that would require them to work to keep the UK in the EU. They can't ask the Leave campaign to define Brexit in retrospect, because that would mean the politically unacceptable position of the government being dictated to by the like of Farage.

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

Posts: 31835 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Barnabas62
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Sure, given the vagueness of meaning of Brexit, it's a theoretical option.

But Norway Mark 1 includes the free movement of labour. The Tories have to find some way of at least diluting that, else they split and breathe new life into UKIP. That's not just Tory realpolitik.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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lowlands_boy
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Yes - the reality is that they have a mandate for any form of Brexit that they like. So the inevitable conclusion is whatever form of settlement is most politically expedient to allow the government of the day to win the next election....

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I thought I should update my signature line....

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Alan Cresswell

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# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by lowlands_boy:
Yes - the reality is that they have a mandate for any form of Brexit that they like. So the inevitable conclusion is whatever form of settlement is most politically expedient to allow the government of the day to win the next election....

A mandate for nothing, and a mandate for anything.

I would add that they need a plan that they can get through Parliament, which means a plan that they can convince the Tory MPs to vote for - or, at least, keeping the number of rebels low enough for them to get it through the Houses.

Of course, if the people don't like it then even Labour could be electable in 2020. Which won't change a thing since by then the UK would be out of the EU on whatever terms Mrs May can get, and if the people of the UK don't like that deal then tough on us because there will be nothing we can do about it.

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
A mandate for nothing, and a mandate for anything.

Quantum Brexit, Brexit means Brexit and it'll all be well as long and be a contradictory mix of whatever we fancy as long as it isn't examined too closely.
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quetzalcoatl
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Schrödinger's Brexit. We either know where we are, but not where we're going, or we know where we're going, but not where we are. Alternatively, neither.

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no path

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TurquoiseTastic

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# 8978

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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
I don't think the current government believes it has the mandate to go for Norway Mark 2. More's the pity.

But I agree with Alan that anything other than the Norway boilerplate solution has absolutely no chance of being done and dusted in 18 months.

Maybe the government could present Norway Mark 2 as the transitional solution ("not ideal but at least providing some short term stability") while protracted negotiations continue? While the EU as a whole comes to terms with resurgent nationalism (which seems destined to kill off further federal intergration for the foreseeable future), the Germans and the French may be happy to park Brexit in some sort of pro-tem political siding.

But I wonder if the UK Government has got the sense to try to play that game.

But the EU27 have no desire to give us Norway Mark 2, even if we wanted it! Why would they? Didn't Donald Tusk say: "the only alternative to a hard Brexit is no Brexit" a few weeks ago?
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Rocinante
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Exactly. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Brexit "negotiations" consisted of Donald Tusk presenting us with an invoice for outstanding financial commitments, followed by a request to leave the keys under the mat, figuratively speaking.
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TurquoiseTastic

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That indeed is the main sticking point I foresee. The EU will probably present some sort of financial demand, which the UK government will be politically unable to pay. This could then be a running sore in EU/UK relations for decades. It's difficult to see either side giving way (why would they?) and it could lead to lots of nasty tit-for-tat reprisals.
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Alan Cresswell

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# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Schrödinger's Brexit. We either know where we are, but not where we're going, or we know where we're going, but not where we are. Alternatively, neither.

I was thinking more that the Brexit Cat is in the box, and we're waiting to open it. The only thing is we don't know if that cat has died of cyanide gas or a biotoxin.

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

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quetzalcoatl
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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Schrödinger's Brexit. We either know where we are, but not where we're going, or we know where we're going, but not where we are. Alternatively, neither.

I was thinking more that the Brexit Cat is in the box, and we're waiting to open it. The only thing is we don't know if that cat has died of cyanide gas or a biotoxin.
I should have said Heisenberg's Brexit. I was thinking of the old joke about H and Schrodinger going for a drive, and they're stopped by a traffic cop, who says, 'do you know how fast you're going?', and H. says, 'no, but we know where we are'. The cop says, 'you were doing 90mph', and S. says, 'oh, now we're lost'. Anyway it goes on and on, and the cat comes into it somewhere.

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no path

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mdijon
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The policeman asks Heisenberg "Do you know how fast you were going?"

Heisenberg replies, "No, but we know exactly where we are!"

The police officer says "you were going 108 miles per hour!"

Heisenberg throws his arms up and cries, "Great! Now we're lost!"

The officer looks over the car and asks Schrödinger if the two men have anything in the trunk.

"A cat," Schrödinger replies.

The cop opens the trunk and yells "Hey! This cat is dead."

Schrödinger angrily replies, "Well he is now."

(Another version adds Ohm resisting arrest but that seems really weak).

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mdijon nojidm uoɿıqɯ ɯqıɿou
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Louise
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# 30

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quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:


You are right about the other non-Eurozone EU states - however I don't think any of them went into accession negotiations explicitly saying that they would render unenforceable their obligation to adopt the euro. Sweden I think has the problem that the political classes are more Europhile than the general population, and the economies of the ex-Communist states were sufficiently divergent from the rest of the EU that their politicians could legitimately regard euro membership as a problem for someone else further down the line.


You wouldn't. You would go into negotiations asking for a derogation. If you didn't get it, the alternative that you're asked to join the Euro at some indefinite point in the future is, as indicated, not a big problem.

quote:
Originally posted by Ricardus:


That said - I am bashing the SNP because it suits my argument, but I don't think they were obviously wrong - I think their approach wasn't necessarily better than the Brexiteers' approach, but I don't think it was obviously

Thanks for letting me know but looking to 'bash' people because it 'suits my argument' is not how I approach things, so I will leave it there.

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Ricardus
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quote:
Originally posted by Louise:
You wouldn't. You would go into negotiations asking for a derogation.

The SNP would go into negotiations having explicitly told their electorate that they have no intention of carrying out Scotland's possible obligation to join the euro. And saying one thing in Brussels and another thing at home is the sort of thing Mr Cameron used to do.
quote:

Thanks for letting me know but looking to 'bash' people because it 'suits my argument' is not how I approach things, so I will leave it there.

I was aiming for wry self-deprecation of my own lack of objectivity. Evidently I failed so I will rephrase.

The SNP's approach had in my view both strengths and weaknesses. Alan was concentrating on the strengths by contrast with the Leave campaign. To my mind a true comparison requires us to address the weaknesses. However I think it's important to acknowledge that the existence of the weaknesses doesn't mean that the strengths don't exist, and in another context I could well be defending the SNP.

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Then the dog ran before, and coming as if he had brought the news, shewed his joy by his fawning and wagging his tail. -- Tobit 11:9 (Douai-Rheims)

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quetzalcoatl
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I was just reading some kind of Delphic statement from May, (Sky News), and it just looks to me as if hard Brexit is the only deal available, but Mrs May cannot state that yet, so as to avoid turmoil in the Tory party. So there is lots of obfuscation, and hints and suggestions. But how is soft Brexit possible?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38546820

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no path

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