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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: UK General Election June 8th 2017
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Cod
Shipmate
# 2643
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Posted
Sarah G,
The Tories have just fought the most cynical and negative political campaign I think I've witnessed. It's depressing that in four weeks of campaigning they not only managed to say just about nothing (apart from the occasional U-turn) but still win.
But those who are tempted to describe the Tory campaign as a failure should consider this list of votes received in a general election since 1992:
Party Votes (m)
Conservative, 1992 14.1
Conservative, 2017 13.6
Labour, 1997 13.5
Labour, 2017 12.8
Labour, 1992 11.6
Conservative, 2015 11.3
Labour, 2001 10.7
Conservative, 2010 10.7
Conservative, 1997 9.6
Labour, 2005 9.6
Labour, 2015 9.3
Conservative, 2005 8.8
Labour, 2010 8.6
Conservative, 2001 8.3
It rather puts Blair's landslides into perspective.
Corbyn's Labour also picked up a lot of votes. In fact, other than in 1997, the last time Labour polled more was in 1966. He still lost though.
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"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier
Posts: 4229 | From: New Zealand | Registered: Apr 2002
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sarah G:
Meanwhile, Jeremy Corbyn thinks he won the election.
To be clear, he didn't. The winner gets to enact their manifesto, live in no.10, run the country, change things and that.
We will now have to endure four more years of the Tories, directed from the wings by the 'robust' DUP. It's the most vulnerable who will be paying for Labour's defeat.
Despite the Tory campaign being pitiful, the manifesto being designed to lose votes, and May having all the charisma of a ready-to-throw out piece of soap, CORBYN STILL MANAGED TO LOSE.
Next time it won't be so easy. I just hope the person after Corbyn is less extreme, more able to appeal to the centre, and actually win.
Ed Milliband would right now be posting last laugh pictures of himself eating bacon butties in the no.10 kitchen if he'd been in charge.
And this country would be a much better place for it.
Under Jeremy Corbyn, Labour's share of the vote increased by 9.6 per cent – more than any other leader in any other election since Clem Attlee's 1945 landslide. [quoting Telegraph article on this]
I think your dislike of this man is blinding you to the real significance of what has happened.
There is no way Owen Smith, or any of the other recent challengers for the Labour leadership could have delivered this. I stayed up and watched the results come in, there were swings to Labour *from conservative* of 11% in some seats. Overall, his campaign pushed turnout up 4-5%, brought in young people many of whom had not voted before.
Corbyn massively exceeded expectations, not just those of opponents but also those of us who supported him. I sat in a room full of labour activities who'd just returned from knocking up the vote watching the exit poll come in - we were stunned, we didn't dare believe it.
If you assume the revival of democratic socialism under Corbyn is an abberation of one election, you are missing the pattern across the world and the implications of mobilising the youth vote - these people will be voting for the next 50 years.
(And we won't have 4 more years, if torydup lasts six months it'll be a miracle.)
[ 09. June 2017, 21:07: Message edited by: Doublethink. ]
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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Barnabas62
Host
# 9110
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sarah G:
Despite the Tory campaign being pitiful, the manifesto being designed to lose votes, and May having all the charisma of a ready-to-throw out piece of soap, CORBYN STILL MANAGED TO LOSE.
Hardly fair comment. Labour gained 30 seats and over 40% of the votes cast. The Conservatives declined from a 20% polls lead to about 2% in practice. Jeremy Corbyn campaigned very well, mobilised a lot of youth voters and also managed to get a much better than expected share of the collapsing UKIP vote.
I'm nota Corbyn fan, but I think he deserves a lot of credit for his personal showing. Labour were a long way back in 2015 and it would have been a real miracle to have moved from that position to the majority of seats.
They are now in a position to make further gains after the predicted stumbling of a minority government
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Cod
Shipmate
# 2643
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Posted
It is a fair comment. Labour lost. The point of fighting a general election isn't to make gains: it's to form the next government.
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"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier
Posts: 4229 | From: New Zealand | Registered: Apr 2002
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ThunderBunk
Stone cold idiot
# 15579
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Posted
When you get to choose the moment of the election so as to discomfit your opponents to the greatest possible degree and nip in before the evidence mounts that you are losing your greatest gamble, when your opponents have been written off by absolutely everyone and you are hailed as being on the point of launching an effectively endless era of single party supremacy, and you still manage not to win a majority, you have lost all credibility.
[ 09. June 2017, 21:27: Message edited by: ThunderBunk ]
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Currently mostly furious, and occasionally foolish. Normal service may resume eventually. Or it may not. And remember children, "feiern ist wichtig".
Foolish, potentially deranged witterings
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Stejjie
Shipmate
# 13941
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Posted
Sarah G:
Sorry, I think that's a grossly unfair argument. At the start of this election campaign, nobody expected anything other than an increased Tory majority, possibly even a landslide. From what I've read today, even a hung parliament was considered a "best case" scenario by Corbyn loyalists. That was why she called the election, she was pretty upfront about it when she made her speech in Downing Street. Everything from the opinion polls to the local election results pointed to a big Tory win and a possible Labour wipe out.
That didn't happen. She lost her majority. And Corbyn was a huge part of that. He had a much better campaign than she did; even some Tory commentators have been saying that. He came across as personable, as direct, as willing to engage with people - all things that May didn't. Hell, even Alistair Campbell was praising him on Question Time tonight.
No, he didn't win the election; and I thought what him and McDonnell were saying this morning about forming a minority government was ott. But winning this election was never on the cards for him. And he's done so much better than anyone expected him to. And, without any disrespect to Ed Milliband, whom I think is a very good politician and who I think was very harshly treated in the run up to the 2015 election, Corbyn's done much better than he did: Labour's vote share is up around 10% from 2 years ago - that's huge.
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A not particularly-alt-worshippy, fairly mainstream, mildly evangelical, vaguely post-modern-ish Baptist
Posts: 1117 | From: Urmston, Manchester, UK | Registered: Jul 2008
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Stejjie
Shipmate
# 13941
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
It is a fair comment. Labour lost. The point of fighting a general election isn't to make gains: it's to form the next government.
Something May's struggling to do.
Given the situation at the start of the campaign, who's going to be happier and more secure in their job tonight out of May or Corbyn?
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A not particularly-alt-worshippy, fairly mainstream, mildly evangelical, vaguely post-modern-ish Baptist
Posts: 1117 | From: Urmston, Manchester, UK | Registered: Jul 2008
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Callan
Shipmate
# 525
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Posted
Originally posted by Doublethink:
quote:
There is no way Owen Smith, or any of the other recent challengers for the Labour leadership could have delivered this. I stayed up and watched the results come in, there were swings to Labour *from conservative* of 11% in some seats. Overall, his campaign pushed turnout up 4-5%, brought in young people many of whom had not voted before.
This is bang on. I have been pretty critical of Jeremy Corbyn but I went to bed last night in a safe Tory constituency that survived the New Labour Tsunami of 1997 and woke up in a Tory-Labour marginal. That wouldn't have happened, I think, without Corbyn.
I think, more generally, there has been a certain amount of churn over the last couple of years with UKIP breaking 60/40 Conservative/ Labour, some Labour votes going to the Tories for the reasons that some of us were concerned about Corbyn in the first place, some Tory voters transferring to Labour or Lib Dem over Brexit (Canterbury and Kensington - incidentally, on behalf of middle class left wing voters in the South East, I would like to protest about having a Tory government imposed on us by Scottish votes) and a modest recoup of Labour votes in Scotland. The long and the short of it is that whilst Corbyn lost he lost to an extent that puts him within striking range of victory next time round. Given the state of Labour in 2015 that would have been a result if Liz, Andy, Yvette or Owen had pulled it off. Given everything that has happened in the last two years and that the conventional wisdom was that this election was going to be a re-run of 1983 I think that Corbyn and his supporters are entitled to be annoyingly smug for a bit.
To paraphrase my favourite Norwegian football commentary: Sir Robert Peel, Benjamin Disraeli, Lord Salisbury, Stanley Baldwin, Sir Winston Churchill, Harold MacMillan, Margaret Thatcher, David Cameron, Theresa May. Can you hear me Theresa May? Your boys took one hell of a beating tonight!
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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton
Posts: 9757 | From: Citizen of the World | Registered: Jun 2001
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
[crosspost in response to Cod]
True, but, politics is the art of the possible. It would have been a unique political achievement without precedent in modern political history of Corbyn had won an outright majority, from the labour position at the start of the poll.
That position was clearly partly due to an ideological battle in the Labour Party, but it was also due to massive bias in print and broadcast media - evidenced by academic studies and also by the fact that public opinion dramatically shifted as soon as general election impartiality rules kicked in.
It is not always about winning today, if Corbyn has caused a generation to become politically involved - that's to the great benefit of this country. If Corbyn has pulled the public and political debate back from the spiral into our aspiration to become a mini-US, it will have been worth it - because it won't just alter what the Labour Party does, it will alter what all the parties do.
[ 09. June 2017, 21:39: Message edited by: Doublethink. ]
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
It is a fair comment. Labour lost. The point of fighting a general election isn't to make gains: it's to form the next government.
Except that to make gains is explicitly why May said she called the election. And, in that sense, Labour did win. The person who was down in the polls by a significant margin. The one everybody said was not a good leader. Him. He pulled a significant change in the balance of power.
Now, perhaps more of the self-obsessed, whiny millennials will be arsed to vote next time and boot the Tory bastards out of any majority.
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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou
Posts: 17627 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008
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Cod
Shipmate
# 2643
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Posted
"Winning" an election is only meaningful in one sense: your party, or your party together with one or more other parties can form the government. While I accept that there may be credit for closing the gap during an election campaign, perhaps there should equally be credit for opening the gap during the time before. Either way, the final aim is to form the government, and the Conservatives have done that.
I don't remember Theresa May saying that she called the election in order to increase the Conservative majority. However, that's irrelevant. What is relevant is that in the time leading up the the election, Labour became more and more adrift in the polls, essentially giving the Tories the option.
Perhaps the new government will take note of the leftward swing in this election. However, there is now the most reactionary coalition imaginable in 10 Downing St, and while Jeremy Corbyn has shown himself to be a competent campaigner, the campaign is now over.
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"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier
Posts: 4229 | From: New Zealand | Registered: Apr 2002
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Callan
Shipmate
# 525
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Posted
Originally posted by Cod:
quote:
I don't remember Theresa May saying that she called the election in order to increase the Conservative majority.
Well, you clearly weren't paying attention because she explicitly stated that the size of her mandate would give her extra leverage in her negotiations with the EU.
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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton
Posts: 9757 | From: Citizen of the World | Registered: Jun 2001
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Cod
Shipmate
# 2643
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Posted
Yes, I probably forgot. But even so, it's irrelevant.
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"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier
Posts: 4229 | From: New Zealand | Registered: Apr 2002
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lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
Yes, I probably forgot. But even so, it's irrelevant.
How?! She had the majority she needed. How is hubris and incompetence irrelevant?
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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou
Posts: 17627 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
We will see if May manages to form a government, she's still negotiating and her party is currently a powder keg. It is not a given that May will win in the sense you mean it.
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
Yes, I probably forgot. But even so, it's irrelevant.
Wrong, it is very relevant. May wanted a larger majority so she didn't have to worry about a few rebels (eg, Ken Clarke) buggering things up. She didn't get that "mandate" (God help me, I so hate that word), so in terms of the result she wanted against the outcome, she lost.
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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Dafyd
Shipmate
# 5549
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
I don't remember Theresa May saying that she called the election in order to increase the Conservative majority.
You don't?
May said she needed to call the election to get a larger majority that would give her a stronger hand when negotiating with the EU.
Contrary to her assertions, the EU actually wanted her to get a solid majority. They didn't want her looking over her shoulder at her backbenchers and Paul Dacre. (x-posted)
According to the Guardian, Guy Verhofstadt said after seeing the election result that he thought the Belgians had invented surrealism.
[ 09. June 2017, 22:02: Message edited by: Dafyd ]
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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams
Posts: 10567 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Feb 2004
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Cod
Shipmate
# 2643
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Posted
If Labour had been close in the polls, calling the election would have been too great a risk for her and she either wouldn't have done so, or might have done so and lost. There simply is no ignoring the fact that Labour have spent the last couple of years trailing the Tories dreadfully in terms of popular support. The fact that they closed the gap at the end may have saved Jeremy Corbyn's blushes, but the fact is that they lost. All very well if one is into glorious failures. Not so good if one wants to form the next government.
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"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier
Posts: 4229 | From: New Zealand | Registered: Apr 2002
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lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
It is not always about winning today, if Corbyn has caused a generation to become politically involved - that's to the great benefit of this country. If Corbyn has pulled the public and political debate back from the spiral into our aspiration to become a mini-US, it will have been worth it - because it won't just alter what the Labour Party does, it will alter what all the parties do.
This would be my hope. What Corbyn did manage might not be a miracle, but it was close. Dissatisfaction rarely trumps the status quo. That as many voters were motivated to participate as did, was impressive. If that can be maintained, then it will be a miracle.
The problem in relatively developed countries, IMO, is that too many people are comfortable enough.
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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou
Posts: 17627 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008
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Cod
Shipmate
# 2643
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Posted
I think that debate has been going on for some time in various countries. I also seem to remember that in 2015 Ed Miliband's manifesto involved increasting taxes on the rich and on spending. Even Theresa May's (and for that matter David Cameron's) rhetoric has been quite different from Thatcher or even Blair.
No doubt Jeremy Corbyn has been able to capitalise on this during the short campaign, but the truth is that another leader might have been able to make more of it earlier and won this election. The evidential basis for giving Jeremy Corbyn the benefit is slim.
I realise that I'm sounding like a disgruntled Blairite, but the truth is that I never liked Blair and never voted Labour while he ran it. I don't really have a dog in this fight, although I do wish that the leftward swing in politics would percolate down here.
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"I fart in your general direction."
M Barnier
Posts: 4229 | From: New Zealand | Registered: Apr 2002
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Dafyd
Shipmate
# 5549
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
If Labour had been close in the polls, calling the election would have been too great a risk for her and she either wouldn't have done so, or might have done so and lost.
Well, quite. If hypothetically speaking Cooper or Smith could have won the election May would never have called it.
I don't think anybody has produced statistical breakdowns of the voting yet. In the absence it seems reasonable to think that Corbyn managed to bring out a lot of young first-time voters. He didn't get enough of the traditional marginal voters. For another candidate to have done better that candidate would have need that candidate to attract more of the marginal voters while still bringing in the first-time voters Corbyn got.
As I say it's unlikely that May would have called the election if the Labour leader had been significantly less unpopular among marginal voters. As it is, Corbyn has built a platform from which he can get his manifesto taken seriously within the mainstream media debates. If he can kill off the myth of austerity that will be a major achievement.
Now it is true that Corbyn's track record before the election was called was pretty abysmal. If he goes back to that he may waste the opportunity. But he's won an opportunity.
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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams
Posts: 10567 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Feb 2004
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Gee D
Shipmate
# 13815
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Posted
NEQ and others upthread, thanks for those comments and technical details.
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Not every Anglican in Sydney is Sydney Anglican
Posts: 7028 | From: Warrawee NSW Australia | Registered: Jun 2008
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Doc Tor
Deepest Red
# 9748
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
quote:
Originally posted by Doc Tor:
Labour take Kensington by 20 votes.
Bloody hell ! Kensington ?
The constituency was redrawn in 2010. It's mostly North Kensington, which isn't that flash.
It still has an average income of £150k.
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Forward the New Republic
Posts: 9131 | From: Ultima Thule | Registered: Jul 2005
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alienfromzog
Ship's Alien
# 5327
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Posted
I wrote this - 'Is this election May's Waterloo?' last week not really expecting it to happen. I have to be honest about that, I expected a Tory majority.
The point is that May would never have gone to the country if Corbyn wasn't Labour leader. She was guilty of believing her own propaganda. Something the current bunch of Tories seem to be particularly vulnerable to.
However I do have hope that the PLP will pull together now. I (as a member of the Labour Party who didn't vote for Corbyn in 2015) was appalled by the behaviour of the PLP. The undermining of Corbyn made life so easy for the Tories as they continued policies that horrify me. However many of their criticisms of Corbyn were not unfounded - he had struggled to lead and to articulate his vision properly. Partly this was due to the malevolence of our allegedly free press, partly it was his failing. But in the crucible of an election campaign he was incredibly effective and has changed the story.
The right wing press will still hate and try to demonise him. However, the first PMQs will be worth watching - and a united Labour party is perfectly placed to exploit the weaknesses of a minority government. Especially when Brexit starts to unravel.
I'm predicting an election for April next year...
Yes, it worries me that the Tories still hold the reigns of power but they are so weakened that I now have hope of a better government soon rather than 3 or 8 years hence as I had feared just 2 months ago.
AFZ
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Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]
An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)
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Tukai
Shipmate
# 12960
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Posted
The judgment / hubris of recent Tory leaders is looking rather threadbare to me. Both "born to rule" Cameron and May called a referendum or election when they didn't need to do so, convinced that they could win, but forgot that to win you have to persuade voters that your case is better than your opponents.
With May likely to resign or be thrown out by her own party (much the same effect!), the turnover of leaders is tending towards that in the old story from Italy of the parliamentary deputy who fell asleep in an all-night sitting and woke up to be told that he had both been elected Prime Minister and then lost a vote of no confidence - all while he was asleep!
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A government that panders to the worst instincts of its people degrades the whole country for years to come.
Posts: 594 | From: Oz | Registered: Sep 2007
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Dark Knight
Super Zero
# 9415
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
It is a fair comment. Labour lost. The point of fighting a general election isn't to make gains: it's to form the next government.
Cheers for that.
So, given this is a hung parliament, the point is that both sides lost, as neither side can form government.
Since we are stating the obvious and all.
Hopefully Corbyn's performance will finally get rid of the Blarites once and for all.
Posts: 2958 | From: Beyond the Yellow Brick Road | Registered: Apr 2005
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Barnabas62
Host
# 9110
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Posted
It remains to be seen what price the May government will have to pay for DUP support over the Queen's speech, the Great Repeal legislation re Brexit, and fall out from the Brexit negotiations.
Ruth Davidson, who really enhanced her reputation as a result of the Scottish successes, (and who, incidentally is gay and planning to marry) will not take kindly to Brexit deals which give more preference Northern Ireland interests than Scottish interests.
And I suspect the Remainers in the Tory Party will hold Mrs May's feet to the fire over Hard Brexit negotiating stances and outcomes.
I doubt whether either the minority Tory government or Mrs May can survive for more than a few months. The Tory Party is ruthless over both leadership failure and losing. The DUP will make hay with their regressive conservatism while the sun shines.
And Sinn Fein may prove to be a wild card in this already unfavourably stacked deck.
You really wouldn't want her job at this point. What was proving difficult before the election is even more difficult now. She'll 'get on with the job' because that's what she's like, but she looks fatally wounded politically and is more likely to receive further wounds than make an unlikely recovery.
On the Corbyn offer to form a minority Labour administration, I think they want to write an alternative Queen's speech and force a very hard fight over the one which May puts forward. If the May Queen's speech is lost, Corbyn would get the next opportunity to form a minority government, failing which there would be another election. So I don't think the Corbyn offer is too far-fetched. A failure of a minority Corbyn government trying to pursue an anti-austerity programme gives them a platform for the next election. A failure of a minority May government to cling on to power doesn't look nearly as good a launch pad.
We're in the messy world of minority government politics now, and my gut tells me that Mrs May will be very bad at it.
[ 10. June 2017, 07:10: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
quote:
Originally posted by Cod:
Yes, I probably forgot. But even so, it's irrelevant.
How?! She had the majority she needed. How is hubris and incompetence irrelevant?
Once you have your majority? Quite irrelevant. Consider your side of the pond.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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Stejjie
Shipmate
# 13941
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Posted
But she doesn't have her majority any more. And incompetence and hubris had a huge part in creating that situation. So they're entirely relevant in this case.
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A not particularly-alt-worshippy, fairly mainstream, mildly evangelical, vaguely post-modern-ish Baptist
Posts: 1117 | From: Urmston, Manchester, UK | Registered: Jul 2008
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Ian Climacus
Liturgical Slattern
# 944
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Posted
If, a big if, May was to step down, who are likely top put up their hands? Surely not Boris!?!
edit: oh, and I just saw the interview where she revealed the naughtiest thing[*] she'd ever done; she really is rather poor at personal interviews/questions.
[*]hold on to your hats: running through wheat fields making farmers none too happy
[ 10. June 2017, 07:44: Message edited by: Ian Climacus ]
Posts: 7800 | From: On the border | Registered: Jul 2001
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
Stejjie: The fact is, as Cod says, she has a non-absolute majority, one there is no obvious opposition voting block against if I've got the maths right.
While the Tories are a fractious bunch and several would love to see her go, I think they're smart enough to realise that now is not the time for a backbench revolt as their chances of actually losing to Labour have increased vastly. Their only hope is to stick together.
Of course it can be argued, rightly so in my view, that May has lost the moral authority to govern, but given her affinity for Trump, I don't think a trifling matter like moral authority is going to matter to her. Much like Trump, if she has the numbers, that will be good enough for her, and if she doesn't, well then hand over to Pence, sorry, Boris (indeed tipped to succeed her by the UK papers this morning).
[ 10. June 2017, 07:49: Message edited by: Eutychus ]
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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alienfromzog
Ship's Alien
# 5327
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
On the Corbyn offer to form a minority Labour administration, I think they want to write an alternative Queen's speech and force a very hard fight over the one which May puts forward. If the May Queen's speech is lost, Corbyn would get the next opportunity to form a minority government, failing which there would be another election. So I don't think the Corbyn offer is too far-fetched. A failure of a minority Corbyn government trying to pursue an anti-austerity programme gives them a platform for the next election. A failure of a minority May government to cling on to power doesn't look nearly as good a launch pad.
There are two parts to this. Firstly it is constitutionally required that the leader of the opposition should try to form a government if Mrs May were to fail to do so - or do so and then subsequently fall. This is even more true since the Fixed Term Parliament Act. One of the interesting things I am seeing is how ignorant much of the public are to the UK constitution. I say this, not as a criticism. Our constitution is very messy and we haven't been in minority territory in my lifetime. So, in one sense Corbyn is acting responsibly and in line with the the constitutional requirements.
The second part of it is the politics and here one could argue (perhaps surprisingly) that Corbyn is strategically right also. The odds are that May will fall at some point and Corbyn is positioning himself for the next election and being 'a government in waiting' is the key - not least because it will be a very good platform to run on: 'here's the detailed program we want to introduce!'
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
We're in the messy world of minority government politics now, and my gut tells me that Mrs May will be very bad at it.
Completely agree.
AFZ
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Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]
An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)
Posts: 2150 | From: Zog, obviously! Straight past Alpha Centauri, 2nd planet on the left... | Registered: Dec 2003
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SusanDoris
Incurable Optimist
# 12618
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Ian Climacus:
If, a big if, May was to step down, who are likely top put up their hands? Surely not Boris!?!
edit: oh, and I just saw the interview where she revealed the naughtiest thing[*] she'd ever done; she really is rather poor at personal interviews/questions.
[*]hold on to your hats: running through wheat fields making farmers none too happy
I heard something on 'today' a bit earlier that the 1922 Committee do not want a leadership change yet. Seems sensible. Then there was another interview with a journalist who has written an article in one of today's papers, The Times' I think, saying that she worked in Theresa May's department for two years, and found her to be inflexible. However, it was also obvious that she herself did not fit in there.
It's all very disappointing and unsettling, isn't it.
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I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
Change org has petition up against the DUP deal and calling for May to resign.
For our crosspond friends, the DUP hold similar social / religious views to Mike Pence - perhaps slightly less extreme - this puts them waaaaayyyy outside the UK mainstream. But the biggest problem with a deal with DUP, specifically, is its ability to swing a wrecking ball through the delicately poised balance of power in Northern Ireland that maintains the peace. UDA terrorists (so-called "loyalist" - pro UK union -fighters) both murdered someone this year and publically endorsed one of the DUP candidates. The DUP got round to rejecting that endorsement rather more slowly than folk would have like, This wasn't well justified either.
Plus Northen Ireland's devolved government, the Stormont assembly, is currently collapsed over Sinn Fein's instance Arlene Foster should resign. They want this because of a massive scandal over the waste of 400 million of public money in an energy subsidy scheme in which Arlene Foster was heavily involved in promoting.
(The IRA laid down its weapons after the Good Friday peace agreement, the UDA is still an active terrorist group.)
[ 10. June 2017, 08:30: Message edited by: Doublethink. ]
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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Dafyd
Shipmate
# 5549
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Curiosity killed ...:
How many LGBT MPs does Theresa May have in her party? How likely are they to support DUP policies?
Ruth Davidson, leader of the Scottish Conservatives, an MSP, is a lesbian She said last night that:
There are more Scottish Conservative MPs than DUP MPs;
She ignored May's instructions on how to conduct the campaign in Scotland;
She thinks leaving the Single Market would be a mistake.
Strong and stable times in the Conservative Party coming up.
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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams
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Jay-Emm
Shipmate
# 11411
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Posted
A victory for labour (and Britain) but a victory like the Battle of Britain, the Mons and Marne, Thermopylae, rather than a concluding victory.
Posts: 1643 | Registered: May 2006
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Barnabas62
Host
# 9110
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Posted
@ Doublethink
Yes indeed. Poisoned hands around an already poisoned chalice. To give Mrs May some credit, I feel sure she wouldn't want to be trying to make some kind of informal deal with the DUP over essential confidence and money legislation issues, to keep some government in power while Brexit negotations proceed. But the other choices (a Tory party leadership battle or a general election re-run) look even less attractive. So I guess she has no choice. Hope she has a long spoon for this particular exercise in "supping".
Some folks in the EU are calling for a postponement of Brexit talks. I wonder if they would be prepared to "stop the clock" (a well known EU negotiating device) until various UK knickers can get untwisted?
Personally, I'd be happy to see the clock stopped for a very long time. Unholy mess is an understatement of the position of the UK government vs a vis Europe. The EU is prepared. We're just a shambles.
(edited for x post)
[ 10. June 2017, 08:39: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
Following Armando Innaucci's appearance on question time last night, there are discussions circulating on Twitter about calling for a cross-party negotiating team for Brexit - it's possible that a petition and campaign for this may start. The parliamentary petitions site is currently suspended, because of the elections, but change.org or 38 degrees may start to organise. (These are political activist groups that survey there members on issues and then campaign on them.). I imagine that the people's assembly against austerity may start to actively campaign if the conservatives try to push ahead with their austerity agenda, despite a lack of majority support in the country at large.
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
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Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984
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Posted
Of course, what would be really radical - and will not happen - would be to send two teams, one to negotiate "hard" Brexit and one to negotiate "soft" Brexit. Then put both resulting deals to either the public or parliament.
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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell
Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005
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Barnabas62
Host
# 9110
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Posted
DT
Pressure is fine I think. But not too much. Given a bit of rope, this doleful informal minority government arrangement will hang itself fairly soon. The internal tensions will do the job. If the next election is between a reunited Labour Party and a messed up and divided Conservative Party, the odds are very good.
Mixing my metaphors, let them show their dirty washing in public. And make the most of the good will Jeremy Corbyn has now engendered within the Labour Party by his fighting the good fight.
It's an opportunity time. I'm one of those putting my hands up and saying that Jeremy Corbyn deserves ongoing positive support, not sniping, from within. And I'm very glad he's mobilised the young.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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alienfromzog
Ship's Alien
# 5327
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
A victory for labour (and Britain) but a victory like the Battle of Britain, the Mons and Marne, Thermopylae, rather than a concluding victory.
Ah, you mean This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.
AFZ
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Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]
An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)
Posts: 2150 | From: Zog, obviously! Straight past Alpha Centauri, 2nd planet on the left... | Registered: Dec 2003
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
I think immense pressure is the order of the day. The fragile government needs to be put under pressure from the get-go - so that nobody can be ill or away without risking the thing falling.
I think the Queens Speech will probably pass, but it's going to have to be gutted from anything that even a small number of Tories might disagree with.
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arse
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Stejjie
Shipmate
# 13941
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
Stejjie: The fact is, as Cod says, she has a non-absolute majority, one there is no obvious opposition voting block against if I've got the maths right.
While the Tories are a fractious bunch and several would love to see her go, I think they're smart enough to realise that now is not the time for a backbench revolt as their chances of actually losing to Labour have increased vastly. Their only hope is to stick together.
Of course it can be argued, rightly so in my view, that May has lost the moral authority to govern, but given her affinity for Trump, I don't think a trifling matter like moral authority is going to matter to her. Much like Trump, if she has the numbers, that will be good enough for her, and if she doesn't, well then hand over to Pence, sorry, Boris (indeed tipped to succeed her by the UK papers this morning).
I think she has lost the moral authority to govern, even within her party; even The Mail and The Sun, fiercely pro-May papers in the campaign, have front pages admitting she's a dead duck. I think, sooner or later, there'll be a leadership election (and probably another general election before too long).
What seems more in question is whether that will be immediately. I think focussing on the Brexit negotiations might buy her some more time, as will her sacking her two chief advisors, who seem to be coming in for some extraordinary (and by all accounts, well- deserved) flack this morning. Those things might work in her favour.
But I'd imagine that losing a majority unnecessarily, especially in the way she did that, and allowing Corbyn to come out as well as he has done, are pretty much unforgiveable sins as far as the party's concerned. It might not be straight away, but she'll be gone soon-ish, I'm sure.
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A not particularly-alt-worshippy, fairly mainstream, mildly evangelical, vaguely post-modern-ish Baptist
Posts: 1117 | From: Urmston, Manchester, UK | Registered: Jul 2008
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
It's an opportunity time. I'm one of those putting my hands up and saying that Jeremy Corbyn deserves ongoing positive support, not sniping, from within. And I'm very glad he's mobilised the young.
I think there's a certain amount of truth in this:
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2017/06/labour-and-its-left.html
[Even if I disagree somewhat that the disunited PLP had as little impact as he thinks]. I think in general unity plus constant, but reasonable, pressure is the way to go. They also have to re-capture the desire to redefine the political middle - rather than reverting to triangulation.
I think 2017 is in some ways a very good election to have lost narrowly, the problems over Brexit are likely to emerge over the next 18 months and start to hit the incumbent. A reasoned, non-histrionic opposition will not leave the Tories with the excuse that the talks were sabotaged by the other side.
In some ways I think that the left of the party is very good on tactics but very poor on strategy, so this kind of thing isn't guaranteed - and they'll have to continue to battle to get their message across over a media that is likely to be - at best - rather indifferent.
[ 10. June 2017, 09:11: Message edited by: chris stiles ]
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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Barnabas62
Host
# 9110
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
I think immense pressure is the order of the day. The fragile government needs to be put under pressure from the get-go - so that nobody can be ill or away without risking the thing falling.
I think the Queens Speech will probably pass, but it's going to have to be gutted from anything that even a small number of Tories might disagree with.
It's a view. I'm just thinking about smart political scene-setting for the next general election, which seems pretty certain to take place within a year. The Tory Party is an unexploded bomb. The anger against Theresa May and her close circle of advisers over the manifesto and the way the campaign was run is palpable. And the DUP are capable of adding further incendiary ingredients without any help from the opposition.
Let them blow themselves up. Then the criticisms over division and lack of authority can be plastered all over the Tories. And if that is coupled with an embracing of Corbyn as a radical, legitimate, proven fighter and leader, a uniting behind him by the PLP, then we're off to the races.
Make no mistake about it, I want this government gone.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
It's a view. I'm just thinking about smart political scene-setting for the next general election, which seems pretty certain to take place within a year. The Tory Party is an unexploded bomb. The anger against Theresa May and her close circle of advisers over the manifesto and the way the campaign was run is palpable. And the DUP are capable of adding further incendiary ingredients without any help from the opposition.
I also think it is possible that the thing will implode. To me the important thing is to help it do so as quickly as possible before any serious damage is caused. If Lab and the others sit around and watch, it could drag on for years - by which time a lot of damage could have been done.
quote:
Let them blow themselves up. Then the criticisms over division and lack of authority can be plastered all over the Tories. And if that is coupled with an embracing of Corbyn as a radical, legitimate, proven fighter and leader, a uniting behind him by the PLP, then we're off to the races.
Make no mistake about it, I want this government gone.
Well, I guess we'll see if it can survive the week. If it can, then I suggest guerilla tactics are needed.
[ 10. June 2017, 09:26: Message edited by: mr cheesy ]
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arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
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Curiosity killed ...
Ship's Mug
# 11770
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Posted
As this Government is so fragile there is not going to be a lot of scope for doing anything damaging as it won't get voted through the Commons. This hung parliament is going to need to negotiate any changes in the law. Uncontroversial laws will pass, so we won't miss out on essential legislation, but anything that is political is going to struggle.
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Mugs - Keep the Ship afloat
Posts: 13794 | From: outiside the outer ring road | Registered: Aug 2006
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Boogie
Boogie on down!
# 13538
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Doublethink.:
Of course, what would be really radical - and will not happen - would be to send two teams, one to negotiate "hard" Brexit and one to negotiate "soft" Brexit. Then put both resulting deals to either the public or parliament.
You are called Doublethink for a reason 🙂
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Garden. Room. Walk
Posts: 13030 | From: Boogie Wonderland | Registered: Mar 2008
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Curiosity killed ...:
As this Government is so fragile there is not going to be a lot of scope for doing anything damaging as it won't get voted through the Commons. This hung parliament is going to need to negotiate any changes in the law. Uncontroversial laws will pass, so we won't miss out on essential legislation, but anything that is political is going to struggle.
Yeah, the problem with that is that they already believe they've got a mandate on Brexit (for example) via both a referendum and a vote in the last parliament. So they're going to be going to Brussels to negotiate a deal which isn't ever going to be put to a vote again.
And that's the great danger here: she's lost her electoral mandate but doesn't recognise that she has. So is continuing as if it hasn't happened. This is why this sorry government needs to be brought down asap.
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arse
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