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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Purgatory: In, out, in, out; EU Referendum thread.
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Leorning Cniht
Shipmate
# 17564
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Enoch:
I still have not heard any (and I mean any) serious or persuasive arguments for Brexit - at all.
Brexit is essentially a negative argument. It's "we don't want that nasty EU". It's not about what we do want - there's no single Brexit vision of a future that people would like to get to but are prevented from achieving by the EU. Given that Brexit support (like Remain support) spans the political spectrum, it's hard to imagine what kind of positive vision there could be that everyone would agree on.
But as far as I see, the Brexit campaign is basically "we don't want that". and the Remain campaign is "your way is worse."
Posts: 5026 | From: USA | Registered: Feb 2013
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Raptor Eye
Shipmate
# 16649
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Posted
It seems to me that both sides are more about emotion than sense.
quote:
Originally posted by Sarah G:
quote:
Originally posted by Raptor Eye:
It surely has to be said that the poorest and most vulnerable people are likely to be worse off if we remain too.
No, Brexit will have a major and bad effect on the economy, which will result in cuts to support for the most vulnerable. Remain will have no effect.
quote:
The NHS and schools are already stretched beyond reasonable capacity, unless you know differently.....
I know a lot about schools, and they're not stretched beyond reasonable capacity.
However if Brexit happens, the resulting economic slowdown, and inevitable budget cuts, will cause serious problems to both schools and NHS.
You are certain, I'm not. I'm sceptical of certainties on both sides. It seems to me that nobody knows. And so those who want to remain go on with fear-mongering and better the devil you know, while those who want to leave go on with fear- mongering and better to get out of this before it's too late, at least we will have some control.
I spoke to someone who lives in Southern Ireland. He said that they benefitted from being in the EU economically because of grants, but as he sees it there is no democracy, in the sense that there is no chance of making a difference to what Europe dictates. Have they sold their souls for a bowl of soup? Was it worth it?
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Be still, and know that I am God! Psalm 46.10
Posts: 4359 | From: The United Kingdom | Registered: Sep 2011
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Raptor Eye:
Have they sold their souls for a bowl of soup? Was it worth it?
Countries are constrained on all sorts of levels; whenever I see these arguments about sovereignty, I want to ask; sovereignty over what, yield by whom, and on whose behalf?
On the flip side it appears that Boris and co would see the country burn as long as they were kings of the ashes.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Raptor Eye:
He said that they benefitted from being in the EU economically because of grants, but as he sees it there is no democracy, in the sense that there is no chance of making a difference to what Europe dictates. Have they sold their souls for a bowl of soup? Was it worth it?
To my mind it is entirely illusory to imagine that the UK can somehow exist geographically alongside the EU and not be pretty much obliged to comply with various aspects of its legislation if foreign exchange (of goods or people) is to continue unimpeded.
If you're manufacturing transmogrifiers for an export market, you'll lose a huge chunk of your potential market if you don't make them eligible for the CE marking, which involves complying with EU regulations.
If you accept that premise, it's better to have a seat at the negotiating table during such legislation-drafting than none at all.
I agree with you about the fear tactics on both sides, and repeat my despair that the only other arguments advanced appear to be purely economic ones. With the notable exception of Justin Welby, who as I understand it has framed the debate in terms of openness to others vs. withdrawal, which is how I see it.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
To my mind it is entirely illusory to imagine that the UK can somehow exist geographically alongside the EU and not be pretty much obliged to comply with various aspects of its legislation if foreign exchange (of goods or people) is to continue unimpeded.
If you're manufacturing transmogrifiers for an export market, you'll lose a huge chunk of your potential market if you don't make them eligible for the CE marking, which involves complying with EU regulations.
True, although the UK has had a pretty strong (manufacturing) standards culture for quite a while and after Brexit will have been working to the EU standard (which AFAIU are covered by the British standards) so I can't see that it will be so complicated on that score. Presumably other countries outside of the EU are working to the CE standards.
I mean, the Brexit arguments are mostly bollocks, but I don't really think this objection really washes.
On the other legal stuff - I think it basically boils down to whether the EU really wants to trade with you. In the Norway example, it seems like they've pretty much had to swallow all of the EU laws and regulations to get the benefits of the market without having any of the benefits of being an EU state.
Other places not so much. Just as an example - there is free trade agreement between the EU and Israel. The EU tries to exert diplomatic muscle onto Israel at times, but I don't think anyone has ever seriously argued that the EU-Israel trade deal should be rescinded.
I'm not sure exactly what the deal is with Russian oil and gas (for another example), but I'm thinking it is unlikely that there are too many restrictions and barriers to that product reaching the market because the EU states obviously need the product.
So then I think we have to ask the overall balance between the UK and the EU - does the EU need the UK more than the UK needs the EU (or vice versa)? I think that's quite hard to answer. It is hard to see many things from the UK that couldn't if necessary be produced elsewhere in the EU, but there are a lot of things the UK needs/uses from the EU. But then I think it is possibly true that the UK has more outward trading links (possibly partly due to its position inside the Common Market..?).
Would life change outside of the EU? Yes, I think it would. Exactly what that change would be is hard to parse. On one level it seems to come down to the relationship with third-party trading countries and whether Brexit would change their view of the UK. On another, maybe it relates to the perceptions of big countries left in the EU and whether it is politically advantageous to punish a post-Brexit UK.
It seems to me to be possible to conjure up scenarios in both directions, good and bad.
quote:
If you accept that premise, it's better to have a seat at the negotiating table during such legislation-drafting than none at all.
Well I certainly see that argument, but on the other hand it is clear that the EU has trading relationships with many countries outside who do not have any impact on the legislation, so I suppose it comes down to the total cost of being part of the club and the total benefits of being involved in the legislation.
quote:
I agree with you about the fear tactics on both sides, and repeat my despair that the only other arguments advanced appear to be purely economic ones. With the notable exception of Justin Welby, who as I understand it has framed the debate in terms of openness to others vs. withdrawal, which is how I see it.
I think my basic view here is that there is something about the British stereotype which assumes a level of superiority over other Europeans, which prides itself on its independence and which looks only at the EU for the tangible benefits. So on a crude level we like the idea of the EU because it means can retired to the Costa sunshine, but we don't like it because we have to hear Romanians talking a language we don't understand at the boot fair.
And somehow the rhetoric of Farage and his chums has captured the imagination of many: we can have all the good stuff without all the things we don't like! We can be Europeans without having any, y'know, Europeans in our towns! We can sell all our shit without being swamped with all that foreign muck! We can shop in Aldi and Lidl to save a few pennies whilst at the same time decrying the very thing that is reducing food prices!
It's all bollocks. But there we go. Just shows the power of rhetoric, I suppose.
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arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
It's all bollocks. But there we go. Just shows the power of rhetoric, I suppose.
Plus a worrying and increasing dependence on "expert views" as opposed to working things out for oneself.
I thought this was pretty good,
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Plus a worrying and increasing dependence on "expert views" as opposed to working things out for oneself.
I thought this was pretty good,
The irony being that Martin Lewis is himself an "expert", appears to be giving advice on how to vote in that blog.. etc.
About the only part I agree with him is that it is impossible to tell what will happen in the future. To say that one side is more risky than the other is a statement of opinion not fact. Why should we believe Martin Lewis' assessment?
In my view MSE lost all credibility with the student fees débâcle. For Martin Lewis to now lecture other people about risk when he totally underplayed the "risks" associated with having a £50k personal debt - where the deal can indeed be changed in retrospect - says something. Plenty of cooler heads at the time were saying that the deal could be changed at any time, Martin Lewis kept assuring everyone that he had a deal from the government that meant it couldn't. Which lasted about 2 years.
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arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
after Brexit will have been working to the EU standard (which AFAIU are covered by the British standards) so I can't see that it will be so complicated on that score. Presumably other countries outside of the EU are working to the CE standards.
That's my whole point. "Working to CE standards" means having to work to a standard that, in legislative terms at least, you have no say in. Apparently Norwegian firms are always complaining they find out about changes to norms disadvantageously late. quote:
I think my basic view here is that there is something about the British stereotype which assumes a level of superiority over other Europeans, which prides itself on its independence and which looks only at the EU for the tangible benefits.
I think there is some natural chauvinism in every country, but there is broad acceptance (or resignation, if you want to see it that way) that the European Union is the shape of the peaceable future. I was very surprised how easily France adopted the euro; I didn't hear any complaint at all.
In this respect I repeat my conviction that experiences of, and attitudes to, WW2 have a lot to answer for in respect of how Europe is viewed.
From this side of the Channel I don't know anyone who doesn't think that the Brexiters have taken complete leave of their senses.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
That's my whole point. "Working to CE standards" means having to work to a standard that, in legislative terms at least, you have no say in. Apparently Norwegian firms are always complaining they find out about changes to norms disadvantageously late.
I understand. Yes, I guess it must be true that a Brexit UK will learn about CE changes later than EU competitors even with the culture of British Standards. But then is it so unlikely that the British Standards people will be uninvolved with the CE standards in the future? I'm not sure.
But on the general point, I'd agree that British products would be at a disadvantage compared to EU products selling in the EU. I can't see how that can possibly be untrue.
quote:
I think there is some natural chauvinism in every country, but there is broad acceptance (or resignation, if you want to see it that way) that the European Union is the shape of the peaceable future. I was very surprised how easily France adopted the euro; I didn't hear any complaint at all.
In this respect I repeat my conviction that experiences of, and attitudes to, WW2 have a lot to answer for in respect of how Europe is viewed.
From this side of the Channel I don't know anyone who doesn't think that the Brexiters have taken complete leave of their senses.
That's easy to explain: they're not British. To about half the voting population of the UK, the myth of British superiority means that we'll be able to get all that we want with none of the things we don't want in the future.
Look at New Zealand. We want to be like them. But better at Rugby Union.
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arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Plus a worrying and increasing dependence on "expert views" as opposed to working things out for oneself.
I thought this was pretty good,
The irony being that Martin Lewis is himself an "expert", appears to be giving advice on how to vote in that blog.. etc.
About the only part I agree with him is that it is impossible to tell what will happen in the future. To say that one side is more risky than the other is a statement of opinion not fact. Why should we believe Martin Lewis' assessment?
Sure, but I don't think he was urging folks to follow him. He says this.
quote:
I’m generally risk-averse, and that pushes me just towards an IN vote for safety, maybe 55% to 45%. Yet just as my dream holiday isn’t necessarily yours, no more is my choice of what’s right a call for you to follow me.
And from your same post
quote:
In my view MSE lost all credibility with the student fees débâcle. For Martin Lewis to now lecture other people about risk when he totally underplayed the "risks" associated with having a £50k personal debt - where the deal can indeed be changed in retrospect - says something.
Nobody gets everything right. As it happens I agree with you that he got that one wrong. But he's making a specific argument, not asserting you should accept it on the basis of his personal credibility.
That's part of the current problem. I think our choice can be informed by experts but where there is conflict of argument we need some independent capability to be able to assess the relative merits of arguments. I think Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Nigel Farrage are all tossers, but I didn't vote Remain for that reason. Basically, I did a personal risk assessment, taking into account what I could find out.
[ 13. June 2016, 08:40: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
To about half the voting population of the UK, the myth of British superiority means that we'll be able to get all that we want with none of the things we don't want in the future.
The reason we think they're mad is because just about every national here feels they are not only French but also European, a notion that's irrespective of, but fostered by, the EU. Brits have just never taken that idea - which to me, is one of the most crucial aspects of the whole thing, albeit abjectly communicated - on board.
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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy
Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
On the other legal stuff - I think it basically boils down to whether the EU really wants to trade with you. In the Norway example, it seems like they've pretty much had to swallow all of the EU laws and regulations to get the benefits of the market without having any of the benefits of being an EU state.
Other places not so much. Just as an example - there is free trade agreement between the EU and Israel. The EU tries to exert diplomatic muscle onto Israel at times, but I don't think anyone has ever seriously argued that the EU-Israel trade deal should be rescinded.
It tends to depend on exactly what the trade agreement covers. In the case of Norway it is all goods and services (there is no functional difference between their trade with the EU and the trade within the EU). In the case of the EU-Israel deal, it covers industrial (though constrains agricultural) goods, and crucially doesn't include services.
The problem with the idea that we will get a free trade agreement because the Germans want to sell us their cars is that we equally want to buy their cars. Meanwhile our main exports are in services which are somewhat more fungible.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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Enoch
Shipmate
# 14322
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
... From this side of the Channel I don't know anyone who doesn't think that the Brexiters have taken complete leave of their senses.
It looks just the same over here.
The Brexiteers have now achieved the ability to reduce me to incandescent fury. This wasn't so when the process started. But now I don't just disagree with them. I've also lost all personal respect for any of them. I think it's the depth of their complacent dishonesty, the degree of their self-delusion and the way they are carrying other people along with them that is a large part of it. It's a long time since anything in politics has aroused such a strong reaction in me.
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Brexit wrexit - Sir Graham Watson
Posts: 7610 | From: Bristol UK(was European Green Capital 2015, now Ljubljana) | Registered: Nov 2008
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
The reason we think they're mad is because just about every national here feels they are not only French but also European, a notion that's irrespective of, but fostered by, the EU. Brits have just never taken that idea
Agreed. There seems to be a great difficulty to accept even the possibility of multiple identities. British and European are complementary identities, not mutually exclusive ones.
Although, as I've said, personally I find national identity something too abstract to strongly identify with. My relational identity is with a relatively small number of people - family, colleagues at work, members of the church, friend - I find it impossible to identify in that way with a complete stranger just on the basis of being born on the same little section of the European continent. But, that's just me. I know others do identify with more than 50 million complete strangers on the basis of living on the same piece of land.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
The reason we think they're mad is because just about every national here feels they are not only French but also European, a notion that's irrespective of, but fostered by, the EU. Brits have just never taken that idea - which to me, is one of the most crucial aspects of the whole thing, albeit abjectly communicated - on board.
I think this may have something to do with the political culture in the UK - which I'd argue has very largely been a form of small-island free-market Tory arsiness. In other parts of Europe, there has been a much stronger balance between the Right and (real) Left, with various forms of Socialism, Greens and the like.
One upshot of this might be that many people in (let's say 'original') EU countries have a much stronger notion of solidarity amongst Europeans.
Then I think it can be argued that many of the newer EU countries have been the recipient of the notions of solidarity. So - in a very general way - the EU countries either believed in socialist concepts of solidarity from the first place or were welcomed into the party in an act of solidarity.
Unlike the UK on this basis, who never entered the EU, never really believed that there was any sense of solidarity with other Europeans, always thought of itself as better than other people on the continent, only ever saw the EU project as something for which to benefit the UK economy and resisted many/most of the notions of solidarity the others believed in.
Wasn't it de Gaulle who torpedoed the initial British sniffing around the EEC? Maybe he was right all along. Maybe the British selfishness will destroy the thing.
[ 13. June 2016, 10:12: Message edited by: mr cheesy ]
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arse
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Leorning Cniht
Shipmate
# 17564
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
The reason we think they're mad is because just about every national here feels they are not only French but also European, a notion that's irrespective of, but fostered by, the EU. Brits have just never taken that idea - which to me, is one of the most crucial aspects of the whole thing, albeit abjectly communicated - on board.
I, for one, don't think that I have a "European" identity, because that would seem to imply that I was more like a Greek than an Aussie or New Zealander - or indeed an American or a Canadian - and I don't think that's true.
I think I have far more in common with the Anglophone nations of the Western Hemisphere than I do with Greece or Spain - let alone Romania or Hungary.
So for me, the EU is an arrangement of mutual convenience rather than any kind of identity.
[ 13. June 2016, 15:08: Message edited by: Leorning Cniht ]
Posts: 5026 | From: USA | Registered: Feb 2013
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
I feel pretty European during the Ryder Cup. But in general I'm more of an internationalist than anything else.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
The problem with the idea that we will get a free trade agreement because the Germans want to sell us their cars is that we equally want to buy their cars. Meanwhile our main exports are in services which are somewhat more fungible.
Outside Germany, Britain is the single largest market for sales of BMW, Mercedes and Audi cars. If those manufacturers lost access to these shores it would be catastrophic for them, and thus for Germany.
Set against our desire to buy nice cars that's a pretty big thing.
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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Honest Ron Bacardi
Shipmate
# 38
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
The problem with the idea that we will get a free trade agreement because the Germans want to sell us their cars is that we equally want to buy their cars. Meanwhile our main exports are in services which are somewhat more fungible.
Outside Germany, Britain is the single largest market for sales of BMW, Mercedes and Audi cars. If those manufacturers lost access to these shores it would be catastrophic for them, and thus for Germany.
Set against our desire to buy nice cars that's a pretty big thing.
Cars represent 12% of Germany's exports by value. 7.1% of all Germany's exports by value are exported to the UK. So roughly speaking, cars exported to the UK will represent 0.8% of Germany's exports.
Even if you are still predisposed to think that will make a compelling case to the German government, then you should also factor in the reverse effect due to the fact that car components represent a significant UK export, and specifically in the case of BMW, they manufacture the Mini range in the UK. They manufacture their smaller, high-efficiency engines (including hybrid engines) at Hams Hall in the UK, and their plant at Swindon manufactures loads of pressings and subassemblies across the range.
Have you factored those things in? In fact, in the case of BMW, I don't even know whether we may be a net exporter or importer. You would have to be a BMW accountant to work that one out, let alone before you calculate the impact on out-of-house component suppliers.
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Anglo-Cthulhic
Posts: 4857 | From: the corridors of Pah! | Registered: May 2001
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SusanDoris
Incurable Optimist
# 12618
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Posted
Having now read the latest posts here on this page, I am feeling much more cheerful, especially after listening to the BBC's, in my strongly held opinion, very biased towards leave aspect of the 5:30 in/out slot on PM on radio 4. Thank you!
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I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant.
Posts: 3083 | From: UK | Registered: May 2007
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lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
I feel pretty European during the Ryder Cup. But in general I'm more of an internationalist than anything else.
Internationalist? I had you as more Continental.
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I put on my rockin' shoes in the morning
Hallellou, hallellou
Posts: 17627 | From: the round earth's imagined corners | Registered: Dec 2008
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Sarah G
Shipmate
# 11669
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Raptor Eye:
You are certain, I'm not. I'm sceptical of certainties on both sides. It seems to me that nobody knows.
<snip>
Have they sold their souls for a bowl of soup? Was it worth it?
I don't think anyone is claiming certainty. But when the overwhelming majority of financial analysts, Prime Ministers past and present, all three political parties and the markets are saying “don't do it”, Brexit starts to look like a really silly thing to do.
One thing is quite certain. Our access to EU markets is as good at present as it is possible to get. It won't be if we leave.
The arguments from Brexit have been entirely along the lines of “It won't be as bad as you think economically”. Their honest pitch should be, “It's a price worth paying”.
Is it really? We become a 'fax democracy' like Switzerland*.
Half the control people think we would get would be negotiated away within the first couple of hours just to get any kind of a trade deal.
(*The EU makes the rules, and sends us a note telling us what they are.)
Posts: 514 | Registered: Jul 2006
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by lilBuddha:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
I feel pretty European during the Ryder Cup. But in general I'm more of an internationalist than anything else.
Internationalist? I had you as more Continental.
![[Big Grin]](biggrin.gif)
I'm flattered. But my Christopher Walken days are long past.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Raptor Eye
Shipmate
# 16649
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sarah G:
quote:
Originally posted by Raptor Eye:
You are certain, I'm not. I'm sceptical of certainties on both sides. It seems to me that nobody knows.
<snip>
Have they sold their souls for a bowl of soup? Was it worth it?
I don't think anyone is claiming certainty. But when the overwhelming majority of financial analysts, Prime Ministers past and present, all three political parties and the markets are saying “don't do it”, Brexit starts to look like a really silly thing to do.
One thing is quite certain. Our access to EU markets is as good at present as it is possible to get. It won't be if we leave.
The arguments from Brexit have been entirely along the lines of “It won't be as bad as you think economically”. Their honest pitch should be, “It's a price worth paying”.
Is it really? We become a 'fax democracy' like Switzerland*.
Half the control people think we would get would be negotiated away within the first couple of hours just to get any kind of a trade deal.
(*The EU makes the rules, and sends us a note telling us what they are.)
I do think that there would be a massive 'remain' vote if this was about trading with Europe. It was what was voted in last time, and what people are happy with, in the main.
I agree that on the whole English people think of themselves as British first, and only European in the sense of geography rather than any feeling of kinship. It surprises me if Scottish and Welsh people think of themselves as European in kinship before British. If some resented it that rules were being made in London which affected them, why should it be any better if they are made in Brussels or Strasbourg?
I think that the referendum should be about asking the public what kind of Europe we want to be a part of, rather than an in/out, which seems like a cynical way of manipulating us along with scare-mongering to me.
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Be still, and know that I am God! Psalm 46.10
Posts: 4359 | From: The United Kingdom | Registered: Sep 2011
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Leorning Cniht
Shipmate
# 17564
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Raptor Eye:
I think that the referendum should be about asking the public what kind of Europe we want to be a part of, rather than an in/out, which seems like a cynical way of manipulating us along with scare-mongering to me.
Except that we don't get to unilaterally decide that, because there's a lot of other countries in the EU too, and they might not want what we want.
And the rest of the EU has been making it pretty clear that they don't just want to be a trade union...
Posts: 5026 | From: USA | Registered: Feb 2013
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sarah G:
I don't think anyone is claiming certainty. But when the overwhelming majority of financial analysts, Prime Ministers past and present, all three political parties and the markets are saying “don't do it”, Brexit starts to look like a really silly thing to do.
Not sure about that, the point when Blair, Brown and Major stepped in was the point where a slight whiff of doubt was detected.
The opposite of almost anything Blair says is the truth, and that's the problem here. You can't trust a liar because you never know when he's telling the truth or just playing with words for his own personal power agenda.
quote:
One thing is quite certain. Our access to EU markets is as good at present as it is possible to get. It won't be if we leave.
It probably won't be. Nobody knows because nobody has been in this situation before.
quote:
The arguments from Brexit have been entirely along the lines of “It won't be as bad as you think economically”. Their honest pitch should be, “It's a price worth paying”.
I agree with this. They're asking us to believe in Boris, Gove and Farage - the three least believable men in the country.
quote:
Is it really? We become a 'fax democracy' like Switzerland*.
Half the control people think we would get would be negotiated away within the first couple of hours just to get any kind of a trade deal.
(*The EU makes the rules, and sends us a note telling us what they are.)
Nope. But looks like it is going to happen.
Incidentally - I'm not necessarily sure that Swissland is more faux than the UK. Both have only a veneer of true democracy.
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arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
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Jay-Emm
Shipmate
# 11411
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
True, although the UK has had a pretty strong (manufacturing) standards culture for quite a while and after Brexit will have been working to the EU standard (which AFAIU are covered by the British standards) so I can't see that it will be so complicated on that score. Presumably other countries outside of the EU are working to the CE standards.
Definitely, indeed quite a few American/Australian standards are basically ripped off EU* standards (and I'm sure the same goes in reverse but it seems rarer). Turkey pretty much explicitly shadows the EN's (if I recall right).
ISO's often based on previous standards (such as the EN, which in turn is based ...). And when it's ratified it goes back, leading to fun situations such as BS-EN 39, being different from EN 39.
That said, if at an ISO committee it's a choice between an EN and a different BS, manufacturers in France, Germany, ... will want the EN while it will just be Britain that wants the BS. (and probably by that point America would either be in Europe's camp or EU&Britain adopting the ANSI). So the EN (and underlying DINN or whatever) would probably win even in the 10% of the time that the BS would have been the 'best'.
Whereas if at the initial meetings that 10% of the time the BS becomes the EN becomes the ISO
Posts: 1643 | Registered: May 2006
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Eirenist
Shipmate
# 13343
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Posted
As a matter of interest, the European flag is on every public building in France, along with the tricolor. When was the last time any shipmate saw it hoisted anywhere in the UK?
Another symptom: My wife remarked to an acquaintance that we had just returned from a holiday in France. The reply: 'Aren't you glad to be away from all those foreigners?'
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'I think I think, therefore I think I am'
Posts: 486 | From: Darkest Metroland | Registered: Jan 2008
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eirenist:
As a matter of interest, the European flag is on every public building in France, along with the tricolor. When was the last time any shipmate saw it hoisted anywhere in the UK?
Another symptom: My wife remarked to an acquaintance that we had just returned from a holiday in France. The reply: 'Aren't you glad to be away from all those foreigners?'
All those foreigners. Hmm. Had it not been for foreigners Britain, would still be plodding along as a second-rate European nation. Like Portugal, but inward looking, with worse weather and food. It was only when we started systematically stealing Spanish gold as it was carried from the Americas that we became anything more.
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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Jane R
Shipmate
# 331
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Posted
Sioni: quote:
It was only when we started systematically stealing Spanish gold as it was carried from the Americas that we became anything more.
Well, there you have it. The fundamental British objection to the EU; we should be allowed to take all the good stuff and give them nothing in return.
Not going to happen. Ask Norway.
Posts: 3958 | From: Jorvik | Registered: May 2001
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Raptor Eye:
It surprises me if Scottish and Welsh people think of themselves as European in kinship before British. If some resented it that rules were being made in London which affected them, why should it be any better if they are made in Brussels or Strasbourg?
Because then they wouldn't be getting made by the filthy English scum. It's driven by hatred of England, not love of Europe.
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Eirenist:
As a matter of interest, the European flag is on every public building in France, along with the tricolor. When was the last time any shipmate saw it hoisted anywhere in the UK?
Not exactly a flag, but I can think of two or three places in my town where the image is shown in public because the projects have received EU funding.
quote:
Another symptom: My wife remarked to an acquaintance that we had just returned from a holiday in France. The reply: 'Aren't you glad to be away from all those foreigners?'
I think this is a fair point. Very largely the EU states in continental Europe have been able to bury their hatred of their immediate neighbours. Whereas the English and French have barely-buried hatred for each other born out of hundreds of years of competition. Even, bizarrely in some ways, more than the feelings towards the Germans.
Generally speaking Europe is a place for holidays for most Brits. The vast majority wouldn't even consider living anywhere other than Blighty (well, unless it is in some kind of English enclave).
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arse
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
quote:
Originally posted by Raptor Eye:
I think that the referendum should be about asking the public what kind of Europe we want to be a part of, rather than an in/out, which seems like a cynical way of manipulating us along with scare-mongering to me.
Except that we don't get to unilaterally decide that, because there's a lot of other countries in the EU too, and they might not want what we want.
Which is the issue in a nutshell. Do we want a Britain that has to kowtow to what other countries want, or one that gets to decide its own path (for better or worse)?
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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Rocinante
Shipmate
# 18541
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
quote:
Originally posted by Raptor Eye:
I think that the referendum should be about asking the public what kind of Europe we want to be a part of, rather than an in/out, which seems like a cynical way of manipulating us along with scare-mongering to me.
Except that we don't get to unilaterally decide that, because there's a lot of other countries in the EU too, and they might not want what we want.
Which is the issue in a nutshell. Do we want a Britain that has to kowtow to what other countries want, or one that gets to decide its own path (for better or worse)?
The Brexiteers' delusion in a nutshell. The idea that any individual country decides its own path these days is rather quaint. In this globalised, interconnected world, the only entities with true freedon of action are multinational corporations. The only significant restraint on them is the power of their consumers to buy or not buy their products, supported by standards enforced by large groups of nations.
Posts: 384 | From: UK | Registered: Jan 2016
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Do we want a Britain that has to kowtow to what other countries want, or one that gets to decide its own path (for better or worse)?
First, of course, we don't 'kowtow' to other countries in the EU. The EU provides a forum for establishing a consensus, a solution agreeable to all (though potentially not quite what each wanted).
And, second, if Britain exits the EU then we still won't be able to "decide our own path" any more than we can now. If we want to trade with the EU, or anyone else, then the terms of that trade will need to be a consensus between the UK and the other nation. If we want to be part of the international community, eg: in NATO or UN, then we will need to accept certain conditions.
Put simply, within or outwith the EU the UK can not decide our own path, the UK will have to walk along a path that is constrained by other nations we trade with, have treaties with etc. EU membership has some influence on what the UK decides to do, outwith the EU the influences will likely be different but I'm not seeing any evidence that they will be any less - and, if we enter into a raft of new trade deals in a hurry to prevent the implosion of the UK economy then the influences may well be more restrictive.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Which is the issue in a nutshell. Do we want a Britain that has to kowtow to what other countries want, or one that gets to decide its own path (for better or worse)?
That's totally not the issue. The only reason the debate is framed like this is that Boris and his numbskull friends have been pushing the lie that Brexit would mean that we'd get to chose our own way. Bullshit. If we want to trade with anyone, never mind the EU, we'd have to "kowtow to what they want". Ever heard of TTIP?
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arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
I have a certain fondness for a small island nation in the Caribbean. I've not been there, but I've met their head of state* and the place sounds like it has a lot going for it.
But what it doesn't have is anything else that anyone really wants very much. Hence it is cast adrift in the international community. It has no option other than to set its own path, as a result it is poor and has few financial reserves to cope with natural disasters.
Being alone and adrift is not a good thing.
*well their stand-in when QE11 isn't available for duty anyway
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arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
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Firenze
Ordinary decent pagan
# 619
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Posted
What you call 'kowtowing' I call cooperation.
People, we are facing the death of our planet. Accelerating desertification, unstable weather systems, escalating natural disasters - and the consequent migration of people. We are facing wars formented by extremism and funded by greed (there's money in arms) - and the consequent migration of people. We are facing the hegemony of unelected, transnational elites farming the world for their own enrichment.
And what do we do? We tear ourselves into ever smaller less powerful pieces. We attack the other inmates instead of storming the walls of our prison. We follow liars and demagogues and when they fail - as fail they will - what then? Worse still.
[ 14. June 2016, 08:33: Message edited by: Firenze ]
Posts: 17302 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Jun 2001
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
It seems clear now that the Brexit view has the momentum.
Here is the latest FT poll of polls information. The percentage of don't knows has decreased and the Leave vote has moved from a 2-point deficit to a 2-point advantage.
I heard Priti Patel on Radio 4 this morning and have now added her to my earlier list (Boris, Michael, Nigel) of people of whom I have a low opinion. But the visceral rhetoric seems to be winning.
Kowtow, Marvin? We are forced to be "excessively servile" as a result of our treaty agreements?
Well, if we do vote to get out, we may well find that "going our own way, for better or worse" will require a good deal of "excessive servility" as we seek to negotiate these new trade deals, following this voluntary raising of tariff barriers.
Of course I could be wrong. Good will may be completely unaffected by our exit. But that feels like "excessive optimism" to me. If the boot were on the other foot, I don't think the UK government and its people would be feeling a lot of goodwill. More likely it would be "let them stew in their own juice".
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
If the boot were on the other foot, I don't think the UK government and its people would be feeling a lot of goodwill. More likely it would be "let them stew in their own juice".
That there is a mighty good point. If Germany voted to leave and the UK remained inside the EU, we'd be pressurising everyone else to give them an almighty kicking.
If we leave with few negative economic impacts it'll be because Germany and France are rather more adult about nationality and winning than we are.
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arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
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Marvin the Martian
Interplanetary
# 4360
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Firenze:
People, we are facing the death of our planet. Accelerating desertification, unstable weather systems, escalating natural disasters - and the consequent migration of people. We are facing wars formented by extremism and funded by greed (there's money in arms) - and the consequent migration of people. We are facing the hegemony of unelected, transnational elites farming the world for their own enrichment.
And what do we do? We tear ourselves into ever smaller less powerful pieces.
The assumption here appears to be that bigger and more powerful political entities are more likely to fight back against the hegemony of unelected elites. But the way I see it, the bigger the political entity then the less important it's people are to its leaders. The unelected elites will always have the ear of politicians because money talks, but in smaller nations the politicians have to pay far more attention to what their people want because it takes a smaller number of discontents to vote them out. That is where protection from the unelected elites comes in - in bigger nations the politicians can enrich themselves and their elite friends while destroying the lives of millions because those millions simply aren't enough to matter at election time.
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Hail Gallaxhar
Posts: 30100 | From: Adrift on a sea of surreality | Registered: Apr 2003
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mdijon
Shipmate
# 8520
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Posted
Logically then most nation states should be dismantled. We should move towards completely autonomous county governments, if not a parish-council-as-state model.
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mdijon nojidm uoɿıqɯ ɯqıɿou
ɯqıɿou uoɿıqɯ nojidm mdijon
Posts: 12277 | From: UK | Registered: Sep 2004
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by Firenze:
People, we are facing the death of our planet. Accelerating desertification, unstable weather systems, escalating natural disasters - and the consequent migration of people. We are facing wars formented by extremism and funded by greed (there's money in arms) - and the consequent migration of people. We are facing the hegemony of unelected, transnational elites farming the world for their own enrichment.
And what do we do? We tear ourselves into ever smaller less powerful pieces.
The assumption here appears to be that bigger and more powerful political entities are more likely to fight back against the hegemony of unelected elites. But the way I see it, the bigger the political entity then the less important it's people are to its leaders. The unelected elites will always have the ear of politicians because money talks, but in smaller nations the politicians have to pay far more attention to what their people want because it takes a smaller number of discontents to vote them out. That is where protection from the unelected elites comes in - in bigger nations the politicians can enrich themselves and their elite friends while destroying the lives of millions because those millions simply aren't enough to matter at election time.
Though, Brexit is not changing the size of any nation (unless it leads to a second Independence referendum in Scotland and the UK is reduced in size by that). What the EU provides is a means for national governments to work together, for their common good, it isn't a government in it's own right.
To try and equate the EU with a government or nation is a fallacy, and severely weakens arguments made on that basis.
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330
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Posted
The fact is that the vast majority of UKIP and Brexit supporters are voting about immigration.
But it seems unlikely a Brexit would solve this problem in the way people seem to think it would.
For example: it is hard to be sure how many Brits there are just in Spain. Unlike the vast majority of Eastern Europeans in the UK, they're mostly not working and are retired.
So, says the Brexit rumour-mill, we'd be able to kick out all the people we don't want, particularly those doing low paid work - ie mostly the Eastern Europeans.
But then other Brexit people say that those English in Spain wouldn't have to leave because they're long-term resident.
So.. the English non-working wouldn't have to leave Spain, but the European working would have to leave the UK.
It's just more bullshit. If it was true that Brexit gave us control over immigration, then suddenly we'd have an even greater crisis in the NHS and the hospitals would be full of OAP ex-expats who'd been kicked out of Europe.
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arse
Posts: 10697 | Registered: Sep 2002
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
For example: it is hard to be sure how many Brits there are just in Spain. Unlike the vast majority of Eastern Europeans in the UK, they're mostly not working and are retired.
Not just this; immigration from non-EU countries is running as high as it is from EU countries - and for some time has been running ahead of government targets. The government had the opportunity to do something about this - should they have chosen to have done so - since 2010, but have obviously not done a thing.
and as you point out; kicking out a bunch of working age people (who pay taxes to boot) and repatriating a bunch of old people, isn't going to do much for the NHS.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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Firenze
Ordinary decent pagan
# 619
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Posted
How many battalions does the Pope have? Or the President of Albania or Iceland or Benin? There's a reason for treaties, pacts and alliances.
You can be as sensitive as a seismometer on the San Andreas to every twitch of your electorate but does that give you the power to influence external factors?
'Stop all these people coming here'
'Done that. Turned away the students and the doctors and the nurses and the plumbers and the joiners and the people prepared to work all hours in wet fields.'
'Give us the good jobs'
'They seem to have taken quite a few industries and services with them. However, if you fancy picking lettuce in East Anglia...'
It will also be amusing seeing a post-Brexit government attempting to get our power generating industry back from the French or rail transport back from the Dutch and Germans.
Posts: 17302 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Jun 2001
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mdijon
Shipmate
# 8520
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Posted
It is a shame that no politician can really stomach making the argument that immigration is a good thing. That actually we need the labour of some, the re-balancing of our demography, the expertise of others. If there is a campaign of fear and appealing to scare stories it is the politics around immigration. Our politicians seem to start from the position that immigration is an evil and then differ over the extent to which it is a necessary evil.
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mdijon nojidm uoɿıqɯ ɯqıɿou
ɯqıɿou uoɿıqɯ nojidm mdijon
Posts: 12277 | From: UK | Registered: Sep 2004
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lowlands_boy
Shipmate
# 12497
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Firenze:
How many battalions does the Pope have? Or the President of Albania or Iceland or Benin? There's a reason for treaties, pacts and alliances.
You can be as sensitive as a seismometer on the San Andreas to every twitch of your electorate but does that give you the power to influence external factors?
'Stop all these people coming here'
'Done that. Turned away the students and the doctors and the nurses and the plumbers and the joiners and the people prepared to work all hours in wet fields.'
'Give us the good jobs'
'They seem to have taken quite a few industries and services with them. However, if you fancy picking lettuce in East Anglia...'
It will also be amusing seeing a post-Brexit government attempting to get our power generating industry back from the French or rail transport back from the Dutch and Germans.
Corbyn's plan for railways basically appears to be to wait until franchises expire and then effectively nationalise them at that point.
If we were to exit we presumably wouldn't have to offer the franchise rights to "bloody foreigners" anyway - but given the complexities of international ownership etc anyway, I don't think it really matters. Existing EU owners would just become like existing Chinese or American or Indian owners I suppose....
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I thought I should update my signature line....
Posts: 836 | From: North West UK | Registered: Apr 2007
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mdijon:
It is a shame that no politician can really stomach making the argument that immigration is a good thing. That actually we need the labour of some, the re-balancing of our demography, the expertise of others. If there is a campaign of fear and appealing to scare stories it is the politics around immigration. Our politicians seem to start from the position that immigration is an evil and then differ over the extent to which it is a necessary evil.
Well, for advocates of the free market - which you would think that the right wing of the Tory party would be - state control of migration seems odd. Labour shortages suck in labour - isn't that the mechanism? If you interfere with that process, you are taking a big risk. Local farmers are already panicking that the carrot harvest will not get picked, if EU migration stops.
But then it's not meant to be particularly rational, is it? If you can appeal to the xenophobic and racist feelings of some people, so be it. All is fair in love and politics.
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Alan Cresswell
Mad Scientist 先生
# 31
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mdijon:
It is a shame that no politician can really stomach making the argument that immigration is a good thing.
That's because they are all morons.
quote:
That actually we need the labour of some, the re-balancing of our demography, the expertise of others.
Add to which we gain culturally from what others bring - what would the UK population do without a curry, or a donor kebab on the way home from the pub?
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Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it.
Posts: 32413 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001
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