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Source: (consider it) Thread: US election aftermath
Barnabas62
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# 9110

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@ lilBuddha

It will test the strength of the separation of powers. Plus I reckon he may turn out to be a dilettante. It's not clear how dangerous he will turn out to be in practice. Watchful is a good attitude at this stage.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Callan
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Originally posted by L'organist:

quote:
NATO I expect DT to look at getting co-operation deals with strategic countries (Turks, UK, Japan, perhaps Canada) which the military would like to be able to use for operations. Once they've done that, withdrawal could well happen.
Silver lining possibility. If being in Bush's pocket did for Blair's reputation, just think what could happen to Theresa May if she went along with that sort of thing.

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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton

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churchgeek

Have candles, will pray
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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
quote:
Originally posted by Martin60:
Bush-Clinton-Clinton-Bush-Bush-Obama-Obama-Clinton would have been the same from the lower white working class perspective.

Don't agree. That is too monolithic. It might have been the same for some of them, and not for others. To find out, you need some very fine-grained empirical research.
The main similarity I see is neoliberalism. Which is a huge similarity...but one that Trump isn't going to change.

Apart from that, there have been some major differences, including many that we don't feel because we have three branches of government. It's a big system that maintains the status quo by default, I think. And it doesn't help that one branch of government has been completely obstructionist under the current President.

So I guess now we'll see what happens with no checks and balances, practically speaking.

Going forward, those of us on the left need to mobilize for the mid-term elections and flip Congress if we can.

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I reserve the right to change my mind.

My article on the Virgin of Vladimir

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lowlands_boy
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Naftali Bennett, Israeli education minister, proclaims that Israeli/Palestine two state solution is dead.

Apparently Trump is expected to end US opposition to settlement building. And has also promised to move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, which was previously considered too sensitive to do.

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I thought I should update my signature line....

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Mere Nick
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quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
The problem was not Clinton's "toxic" brand. The problem was sexism.

I voted for four women, but not for her.

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"Well that's it, boys. I've been redeemed. The preacher's done warshed away all my sins and transgressions. It's the straight and narrow from here on out, and heaven everlasting's my reward."
Delmar O'Donnell

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Mere Nick
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quote:
Originally posted by Bishops Finger:
Does that mean that the USA is now in effect a one-party state?

IJ

We were one party rule on a national level after the 2008 election, too, except by a wider majority.

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"Well that's it, boys. I've been redeemed. The preacher's done warshed away all my sins and transgressions. It's the straight and narrow from here on out, and heaven everlasting's my reward."
Delmar O'Donnell

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Mere Nick
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My candidate came in third. That's at least better than my beloved Atlanta Braves did this year.

Perhaps the folks on the left will finally wake up and realize how much smug condescension costs them in the voting booth. I doubt they will, but am always willing to be pleasantly surprised.

Anyway, my guy got an astounding 3.3%. We can build on that, mmm hmm.

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"Well that's it, boys. I've been redeemed. The preacher's done warshed away all my sins and transgressions. It's the straight and narrow from here on out, and heaven everlasting's my reward."
Delmar O'Donnell

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Lamb Chopped
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The only thing to do is keep our eyes on God and keep doing the next thing, whatever it is.

Given his personality and refusal to accept guidance, he's very likely to crash and burn sooner rather than later. I'm not looking forward to the embarrassing spectacle, particularly as resolving it (via impeachment) will take a million times longer than it should, given that the people who will need to do it are the same people who couldn't bring themselves to deal with him successfully when he was an unwanted nominee.

But I'll be interested to see how the time goes between now and inauguration day. I really don't think he has ever sat down and soberly thought about how he'll do the job. We may see an attempt to run out on it, particularly when it becomes clear that in terms of ego stroking approval ratings, there's only one direction to go from here, and that's down. As it is for all newly elected presidents.

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Er, this is what I've been up to (book).
Oh, that you would rend the heavens and come down!

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Martin60
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quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
quote:
Originally posted by Humble Servant:
quote:
Originally posted by Martin60:

Never again will the political class assume the working class doesn't matter.

What has happened to the working class? They where the trades unionists. They were the Labour movement. When did they become the agents of the far right?
In this election, at least, they didn't.
I'm delighted the poor didn't.

Gard bless the male, white, Christian, technical, smalltown, straight lower middle class!

[ 09. November 2016, 16:55: Message edited by: Martin60 ]

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Love wins

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SusanDoris

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People I've talked to today are shocked and very dismayed at the idea of Trump as President-elect. Approx how many Democrats are there in the two Houses who can oppose him?

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I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant.

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Brenda Clough
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The GOP has the majority in both houses. Unless some of them peel off and vote with the minority, the party can ram through anything they like. The only upside to this is, now they have no excuse. They must govern. There's no one else to blame.

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Science fiction and fantasy writer

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Martin60
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quote:
Originally posted by Callan:
quote:
Originally posted by Martin60:
As you know I'm talking the majority working class. White. Men and their dependent women. For now.

As for Germany: Alternative für Deutschland.

Liberals have to INCLUDE such.

Not if the price is pandering to people's racism, we don't.

The AfD won't beat Merkel. The more likely scenario is Le Pen winning in France. If that happens you can kiss the Western Alliance goodbye.

Yeah we do. Without pandering. Polarizing, just confronting won't help. We have to subvert.

Merkel's been at the pinnacle for 11 years. Next year is 12. Then how much more? That's beginning to look like time for a change. Overdue already. In a confident democracy.

AfD I hope not, but she has internal, party competition in Jens Spahn.

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Love wins

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sabine
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quote:
Originally posted by Lamb Chopped:

The only thing to do is keep our eyes on God and keep doing the next thing, whatever it is.

Amen. I am too emotional right now to know anything for sure except that I believe in the presence of the Holy Spirit at the worst times and in the Spirit's ability to be a guide to the eventual opening of a way forward.

quote:
Given his personality and refusal to accept guidance, he's very likely to crash and burn sooner rather than later. I'm not looking forward to the embarrassing spectacle, particularly as resolving it (via impeachment) will take a million times longer than it should, given that the people who will need to do it are the same people who couldn't bring themselves to deal with him successfully when he was an unwanted nominee.
This might be emotionally rewarding in the short term, but it may not result in the kind of healing the nation needs. And then we'd be left with President Mike Pence, a much scarier dude (most people don't pick up on this because he is pseudo-polite and soft-spoken).

quote:
But I'll be interested to see how the time goes between now and inauguration day. I really don't think he has ever sat down and soberly thought about how he'll do the job. We may see an attempt to run out on it, particularly when it becomes clear that in terms of ego stroking approval ratings, there's only one direction to go from here, and that's down. As it is for all newly elected presidents.
Indeed

sabine

[ 09. November 2016, 17:46: Message edited by: sabine ]

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"Hunger looks like the man that hunger is killing." Eduardo Galeano

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Brenda Clough
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A joke, reported by a friend:

UK after Brexit: "We are now officially the stupidest country in the world."

USA: "Hold my beer."

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Science fiction and fantasy writer

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Martin60
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The more I look at the demographics, the more they bother me. Why aren't the lowest income bands not just half Democrat but 80%? Why didn't the poor and working class KNOW that the Democrats under Clinton are their only hope? That is a catastrophic failure to communicate by the Clinton Democrats. Where were the trade unions?

Why is the only 'outsider' a billionaire? Not a savvy, inclusive, non-demagogic, true working class hero who can win the hearts and minds of the reactionary working class despite themselves? Or the next FDR? Truman?

A beautiful black liberal American woman (hopefully lesbian!) on BBC 24 just acknowledged that the people she wasn't hearing have spoken and that we must all align together. Superb.

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Love wins

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Marvin the Martian

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quote:
Originally posted by Martin60:
Why didn't the poor and working class KNOW that the Democrats under Clinton are their only hope?

Because it's not true, at least not for all of them. They've seen what's happened over the last eight years, and they don't want any more of the same.

Trump won't help them, of course. But he is something different and he said the right things about improving their lives, so they gave him a chance.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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Brenda Clough
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Poor fools, putting their faith in a con man.
Here is a post from the son of a friend, explaining why this is so sad.

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Science fiction and fantasy writer

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Sober Preacher's Kid

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quote:
Originally posted by Martin60:
The more I look at the demographics, the more they bother me. Why aren't the lowest income bands not just half Democrat but 80%? Why didn't the poor and working class KNOW that the Democrats under Clinton are their only hope? That is a catastrophic failure to communicate by the Clinton Democrats. Where were the trade unions?

Why is the only 'outsider' a billionaire? Not a savvy, inclusive, non-demagogic, true working class hero who can win the hearts and minds of the reactionary working class despite themselves? Or the next FDR? Truman?

A beautiful black liberal American woman (hopefully lesbian!) on BBC 24 just acknowledged that the people she wasn't hearing have spoken and that we must all align together. Superb.

American unions were eviscerated by the Taft-Hartley Act in 1947 and then by the failure of Operation Dixie and the CIO. It's very hard to start a union organizing drive in the US, for various reasons.

But on Trump, I reserve judgement. I believe he'll revert to type. He's a liar and a cheat, and he will cut and run rather than face the costs of his own actions. I truly believe he was lying about most of what he said in the campaign, it was hyperbole and what people wanted to hear.

He wouldn't be the first president-elect to repudiate their election platform and do a 180: FDR did the same thing in 1932. His 1932 campaign promised nothing of the New Deal, in fact his positions before his inauguration were quite right-wing and isolationist.

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NDP Federal Convention, Edmonton 2016: More Trots than the Calgary Stampede!

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sabine
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Trump encouraged people to vent. That can't be underestimated. Sometimes aggressive venting makes people feel better, but it can also cause people to miss the fact that their "leader" may not be taking them in the direction that leads to solutions that are good for them.

sabibe

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"Hunger looks like the man that hunger is killing." Eduardo Galeano

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Stetson
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quote:
Originally posted by Sober Preacher's Kid:
quote:
Originally posted by Martin60:
The more I look at the demographics, the more they bother me. Why aren't the lowest income bands not just half Democrat but 80%? Why didn't the poor and working class KNOW that the Democrats under Clinton are their only hope? That is a catastrophic failure to communicate by the Clinton Democrats. Where were the trade unions?

Why is the only 'outsider' a billionaire? Not a savvy, inclusive, non-demagogic, true working class hero who can win the hearts and minds of the reactionary working class despite themselves? Or the next FDR? Truman?

A beautiful black liberal American woman (hopefully lesbian!) on BBC 24 just acknowledged that the people she wasn't hearing have spoken and that we must all align together. Superb.

American unions were eviscerated by the Taft-Hartley Act in 1947 and then by the failure of Operation Dixie and the CIO. It's very hard to start a union organizing drive in the US, for various reasons.

But on Trump, I reserve judgement. I believe he'll revert to type. He's a liar and a cheat, and he will cut and run rather than face the costs of his own actions. I truly believe he was lying about most of what he said in the campaign, it was hyperbole and what people wanted to hear.


The thing is, it's hard to know exactly WHAT Trump was saying in the campaign(primary and general), because on numerous points he contradicted himself.

For instance, when originally asked about the status of Jerusalem, he replied that he couldn't comment on that because, if elected, he might have to mediate negotiations on the dispute. A few weeks later, he told a pro-Israel gathering that he favoured moving the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

My own guess is that his initial reply was the sincere one, since it wasn't the sort of thing you say in mainstream American politics if you've had any coaching. I also think this probably set a pattern for his positions on other contentious issues, whether he was moving from left to right(as in Jerusalem), or vice-versa(eg. if he eventually backs down on building his wall).

And a haunty salute to Sober Preacher's Kid if he can spot the Canadian historical-political echo in Trump's embassy posturing.

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I have the power...Lucifer is lord!

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Martin60
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Thanks MtM, SPK - the beauty is Lisa Osborne Ross, Former Senior Clinton Administration Official.

Of course he 'lied', like FDR, GOOD! The glint, the silver lining of pragmatism. You can see him putting the stump behind him now. As long as he leaves Clinton alone AND Iran. That is critical.

Where's his Condy Rice? His Richard Perle? You don't run a billion dollar empire without HELP.

Clinton would ring Ivy League academics at 4 in the morning. Reagan had an awesome team.

The Bushes DIDN'T.

He could, should start with Lisa Osborne Ross!

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Love wins

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Brenda Clough
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Trump said so many contradictory things, and is often so unclear (the phrase 'word salad' is relevant here) that it is obvious that what he says is not part of his appeal. Rather, his very incoherence allows people to project what they want onto the restless but amorphous surface. So, you hate black people, he's your guy. You think women are uppity, you feel he thinks the same.

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Science fiction and fantasy writer

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Sober Preacher's Kid

Presbymethegationalist
# 12699

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quote:
Originally posted by Stetson:
quote:
Originally posted by Sober Preacher's Kid:
quote:
Originally posted by Martin60:
The more I look at the demographics, the more they bother me. Why aren't the lowest income bands not just half Democrat but 80%? Why didn't the poor and working class KNOW that the Democrats under Clinton are their only hope? That is a catastrophic failure to communicate by the Clinton Democrats. Where were the trade unions?

Why is the only 'outsider' a billionaire? Not a savvy, inclusive, non-demagogic, true working class hero who can win the hearts and minds of the reactionary working class despite themselves? Or the next FDR? Truman?

A beautiful black liberal American woman (hopefully lesbian!) on BBC 24 just acknowledged that the people she wasn't hearing have spoken and that we must all align together. Superb.

American unions were eviscerated by the Taft-Hartley Act in 1947 and then by the failure of Operation Dixie and the CIO. It's very hard to start a union organizing drive in the US, for various reasons.

But on Trump, I reserve judgement. I believe he'll revert to type. He's a liar and a cheat, and he will cut and run rather than face the costs of his own actions. I truly believe he was lying about most of what he said in the campaign, it was hyperbole and what people wanted to hear.


The thing is, it's hard to know exactly WHAT Trump was saying in the campaign(primary and general), because on numerous points he contradicted himself.

For instance, when originally asked about the status of Jerusalem, he replied that he couldn't comment on that because, if elected, he might have to mediate negotiations on the dispute. A few weeks later, he told a pro-Israel gathering that he favoured moving the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

My own guess is that his initial reply was the sincere one, since it wasn't the sort of thing you say in mainstream American politics if you've had any coaching. I also think this probably set a pattern for his positions on other contentious issues, whether he was moving from left to right(as in Jerusalem), or vice-versa(eg. if he eventually backs down on building his wall).

And a haunty salute to Sober Preacher's Kid if he can spot the Canadian historical-political echo in Trump's embassy posturing.

Joe Clark FTW!

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NDP Federal Convention, Edmonton 2016: More Trots than the Calgary Stampede!

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orfeo

Ship's Musical Counterpoint
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quote:
Originally posted by Anglican't:
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
The problem was not Clinton's "toxic" brand. The problem was sexism.

How so? Did Mrs Clinton's womanhood cause her, for example, to get a private e-mail server?
No, it caused other people to care deeply about her private e-mail server.

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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.

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orfeo

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quote:
Originally posted by Goldfish Stew:
So with commentators linking this to movements like Brexit, rise in nationalism etc - to what extent is this the logical outcome of years of hearing about (and facing) terrorism?

The rallying call around nationalism, fear of minorities, immigrants etc.... It just feels like maybe this is the black and white view of the world the factions wanted to see.

Which isn't easy. We want security. Is there a move to deciding the way to do that is to close the world off more?

I don't think terrorism is necessary to have a fear of minorities and immigrants. Besides, you have a chicken-and-egg problem: at what point did minorities and immigrants, to the extent that they are involved in terrorism, become involved? Was it before or after they were demonised and marginalised?

For a long time most of the "Islamic" terrorism we were facing originated in other countries. In fact at first it only occurred in other countries. Then "they" started traveling "here" to commit terrorist acts. It was only after that people living "here" became involved.

And of course, the vast majority of minorities and immigrants aren't involved in any such thing.

Terrorism isn't required to resent a minority.
Mere loss of majority privilege is sufficient.

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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.

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rolyn
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# 16840

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quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
Trump said so many contradictory things, and is often so unclear (the phrase 'word salad' is relevant here) that it is obvious that what he says is not part of his appeal. Rather, his very incoherence allows people to project what they want onto the restless but amorphous surface. So, you hate black people, he's your guy. You think women are uppity, you feel he thinks the same.

Correct. The actual person Donald could well be none of the things everyone seemed so keen to accuse him off. He played a very very clever marketing trick.
As you say the "projecting" of tensions by the masses over racial and sexual politics, along with the power of denial on climate change. This is what got him past the winning post leaving most of us bewildered as in --- How in Hell did he do that?
Oldest trick in the book I'm afraid, and his opponent was powerless to stop it.

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Change is the only certainty of existence

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W Hyatt
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# 14250

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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
Made me wonder what his first budget will look like.

Just having an actual budget will be a big change since budget deadlock and continuing resolutions have been standard operating procedure. I expect to see big cuts in social programs, increases in military spending, and tax cuts for the top end.

I also expect that the Affordable Care Act will be quickly repealed without being replaced by anything.

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A new church and a new earth, with Spiritual Insights for Everyday Life.

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Brenda Clough
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Yeah, if you are poor and have no insurance you had better plan never to be ill again.

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Science fiction and fantasy writer

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Og, King of Bashan

Ship's giant Amorite
# 9562

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Dumping 20K people off of the insurance rolls would be bad, to say the least.

I have heard a number of people claim that they wouldn't do it; either they are going to replace the ACA with something that will keep people who were uninsured prior to the ACA on private insurance, or expand Medicaid to cover those folks. I haven't seen that specifically proposed anywhere, though, so I have to wonder if it will really happen.

What scares the hell out of me is that the few people I know who are trying to tell me that everything is going to be fine tend to couch their assurances with "Oh sure he said that but there's no way he actually goes through with it." I don't find this comforting in the least.

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"I like to eat crawfish and drink beer. That's despair?" ― Walker Percy

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John Holding

Coffee and Cognac
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quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:
Oh dear.

NATO I expect DT to look at getting co-operation deals with strategic countries (Turks, UK, Japan, perhaps Canada) which the military would like to be able to use for operations. Once they've done that, withdrawal could well happen.


In at least Canada's case, the situation is far more complicated. We have three main links with the US -- the North America Free Trade AGreement (Canada, US and Mexico), which Trump has effecivbely promised to rip up; the North American Defence agreeemnt, which Trump is likely to decide to rip up unless Canada doubles or triples its financial contribution to US defence (we don't actually get anything out of this one -- any missiles incoming over the poles would be shot down over Canada to spare the US); and NATO.

In the context of likely ripping up two major US-Canada agreements, I hardly think Trump is going to attempt to deal with Canada on defence.

John

Posts: 5885 | From: Ottawa, Canada | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
mousethief

Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953

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In good news, nuclear war with Russia is obviated when we become their client state.

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God has shown me that I should not call any man impure or unclean. --Acts 10:28

Posts: 62454 | From: Ecotopia | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged
Og: Thread Killer
Ship's token CN Mennonite
# 3200

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quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
In good news, nuclear war with Russia is obviated when we become their client state.

Harkening back to the cold war days rhetoric, wasn't there some stuff done proving that the explosion of about 3 Hydrogen bombs within a certain radius would tilt the earth's axis beyond repair?

Of course it was news during the cold war, pre web, so hardly something you could refute easily back then. But, given the times, I fully suspect all the cold war fears will come sweeping back across the zeitgeist.

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I wish I was seeking justice loving mercy and walking humbly but... "Cease to lament for that thou canst not help, And study help for that which thou lament'st."

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Stercus Tauri
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# 16668

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Daughter just called from New York saying there were people crying in the subway this morning. They are giving up a president who they love and admire for what? - a bag of offal. They are scared of the future, and hate the fact that Trump lives in their city.

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Thay haif said. Quhat say thay, Lat thame say (George Keith, 5th Earl Marischal)

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lilBuddha
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# 14333

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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
quote:
Originally posted by Martin60:
Why didn't the poor and working class KNOW that the Democrats under Clinton are their only hope?

Because it's not true, at least not for all of them. They've seen what's happened over the last eight years, and they don't want any more of the same.
Most of the last 8 years America was under a republican senate and house that wouldn't do shit.
quote:

Trump won't help them, of course. But he is something different and he said the right things about improving their lives, so they gave him a chance.

I don't understand how they can be so stupid. He has spent all his career belittling people who are not rich. He will be working with a group of people whose stated motive is to end anything that helps the middle class and poor. People are so stupid.

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So goodnight moon, I want the sun
If it's not here soon, I might be done
No it won't be too soon 'til I say goodnight moon

- A. N. Parsley, D. Mcvinni

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Augustine the Aleut
Shipmate
# 1472

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quote:
Originally posted by John Holding:
quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:
Oh dear.

NATO I expect DT to look at getting co-operation deals with strategic countries (Turks, UK, Japan, perhaps Canada) which the military would like to be able to use for operations. Once they've done that, withdrawal could well happen.


In at least Canada's case, the situation is far more complicated. We have three main links with the US -- the North America Free Trade AGreement (Canada, US and Mexico), which Trump has effecivbely promised to rip up; the North American Defence agreeemnt, which Trump is likely to decide to rip up unless Canada doubles or triples its financial contribution to US defence (we don't actually get anything out of this one -- any missiles incoming over the poles would be shot down over Canada to spare the US); and NATO.

In the context of likely ripping up two major US-Canada agreements, I hardly think Trump is going to attempt to deal with Canada on defence.

John

I am reliably informed that Mr Trump knows nothing about the Norad arrangement-- and he is certainly not aware that US forces are under infidel (sorry, Canadian) command for half of each year.

As far as trade goes, I recall some years ago in a previous incarnation seeing a survey that identified 14% of US folk correctly identifying their country's greatest trading partner (Canada, at that time). I suspect that Mr Trump is among the 86%. Given his habit of not receiving briefings....

Posts: 6048 | From: Ottawa, Canada | Registered: Oct 2001  |  IP: Logged
Soror Magna
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# 9881

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Fortunately for President-elect Fart, there are many resources to help him transition into his new job. He's probably watching old Schoolhouse Rock clips right now. And I'm really, really looking forward to when he tries to impose a tariff on Chinese imports or get out of NAFTA and Walmart sues the USA government for billions of dollars of lost profits. [Snigger]

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"You come with me to room 1013 over at the hospital, I'll show you America. Terminal, crazy and mean." -- Tony Kushner, "Angels in America"

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Leorning Cniht
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# 17564

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quote:
Originally posted by Soror Magna:
And I'm really, really looking forward to when he tries to impose a tariff on Chinese imports or get out of NAFTA and Walmart sues the USA government for billions of dollars of lost profits. [Snigger]

Please explain how you think that Walmart would have grounds for a lawsuit in such a case? The US government has no obligation to arrange its trade policy for the maximum benefit of Walmart.
Posts: 4480 | From: USA | Registered: Feb 2013  |  IP: Logged
John Holding

Coffee and Cognac
# 158

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I'm guessing, but the NAFTA specifically gives companies the right to sue governments for actions that compromise their profit-making capability. Normally, this means that Walmart would sue the Canadian government if it took action that harmed WAlmart. It is within the meaning of the treaty, however, that Walmart could sue the US government for impairing its activity in Canada.

If Trump moves to tear up Nafta, as he has threatened -- not because of Canada, as A the A has pointed out, but because of MExico -- I would guess that there might be grounds for such a suit. WHether Walmart would win is probably a different issue, but that wouldn't stop it trying.

John

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Leorning Cniht
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# 17564

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quote:
Originally posted by John Holding:
I'm guessing, but the NAFTA specifically gives companies the right to sue governments for actions that compromise their profit-making capability.

But surely if the US repudiates NAFTA, then any such rights evaporate along with the treaty?
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mousethief

Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953

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quote:
Originally posted by John Holding:
I'm guessing, but the NAFTA specifically gives companies the right to sue governments for actions that compromise their profit-making capability.

Boy if this doesn't flag NAFTA as evil. That a corporation should have sovereignty over a nation. Shee-yit.

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God has shown me that I should not call any man impure or unclean. --Acts 10:28

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Pangolin Guerre
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# 18686

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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
I'm not sure if there have been periods of 12 years with Presidents of the same party? Seems unlikely.

Reagan-Reagan-Bush was 12 years.
Lincoln-Lincoln-Johnson-Grant-Grant-Hayes-Garfield-Arthur... 1861-1885; McKinley-Roosevelt-Taft... 1897-1913; FDR-Truman... 1933-1953; and supra.
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Gramps49
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# 16378

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One thing I learned a long time ago in political science was that the pendulum swings to the left and to the right.

The underlying current throughout this election was populism. Trump came at it from the right. Sanders came at it from the left.

There is just an overall mistrust of the establishment (something I remember even back in the 70's).

An interesting comment I heard this evening was America is made up of two groups: those who live on the coast, and the fly-over people. For too long the people in the middle, the flyover people, have felt their concerns were not being heard. Now, they have spoken. And America has heard their voice.

What does it mean? Time will tell.

I do know Trump will find it much harder to govern than being a business tycoon. He will have about 100 honeymoon days, and then will come the hard part. He can easily overturn many of the executive orders Obama signed. His cabinet will tweak their respective departments
Obamacare may be history. But I am thinking beyond that, it will be quite hard to get things done.

For one thing, eight Republican Senators did not vote for him. If half of them form a coalition with the Democrats, most of Trump's legislative agenda will not get through. The Supreme Court will remain centrist. Roe v Wade will remain. Equal Marriage will survive.

Give it two years. Then all of the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate will be up for re-election. If history repeats itself, like it did with Obama, I would think both chambers will then flip and then the brakes will be gradually applied.

In four years, if Trump can make it that far (there may be a number of reasons which can be grounds for impeachment), he will then have to answer to the American people. There will be a very strong opposition ready to take him on. Can anyone say Elizabeth Warren?

American has survived these pendulum swings before. It will again. And we will be the better for it.

I have been part of the loyal opposition before. I can be again.

We have been beaten, but we are not defeated.

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Firenze

Ordinary decent pagan
# 619

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I've just read a very pessimistic piece in The Guardian to the effect that Trump can do what he likes and keep any congressional opposition in line by pointing out his electoral success and its implications for their re-election if they are seen to oppose him.

The element that leaves out is the already manifest discontent of those who didn't vote for him, which is not going to subside if he turns many of his proposals into actions. Plus the enlistment of those presently tolerant or pro when they find their own lives adversely affected.

Extremes provoke extremes. As long as Republican and Democrat operated within a broad consensus, the majority would go along, but if you break that, then... obviously what we hope for is an energised and politicised population who will return a stonking number of Democrats at the mid term and a new President in 4 years. Rather than, say, another Civil War (though with the availability of guns that's always a worry).

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Teekeey Misha
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# 18604

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quote:
Originally posted by Firenze:
...keep any congressional opposition in line by pointing out his electoral success and its implications for their re-election if they are seen to oppose him.

Is that likely to be an effective threat when they know as well as he does that he lost the popular vote? Surely, the first time he mentions his "electoral success" they will swiftly retort, "Um, Don - you came second."

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Misha
Don't assume I don't care; sometimes I just can't be bothered to put you right.

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orfeo

Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878

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quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
In good news, nuclear war with Russia is obviated when we become their client state.

It's kind of like saying "well I've seen to it that THAT poisonous snake won't kill you, but I'm thinking about poking some of the other ones".

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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.

Posts: 17942 | From: Under | Registered: Jul 2008  |  IP: Logged
orfeo

Ship's Musical Counterpoint
# 13878

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quote:
Originally posted by Teekeey Misha:
quote:
Originally posted by Firenze:
...keep any congressional opposition in line by pointing out his electoral success and its implications for their re-election if they are seen to oppose him.

Is that likely to be an effective threat when they know as well as he does that he lost the popular vote? Surely, the first time he mentions his "electoral success" they will swiftly retort, "Um, Don - you came second."
A considerable number of members of Congress owe their positions to breathtaking gerrymanders. The Electoral College, despite its perceived faults, is at least based on some kind of rational principle about the federal nature of the country.

There's no basis for electoral boundaries like these ones other than blatant, corrupting conflict of interest.

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Technology has brought us all closer together. Turns out a lot of the people you meet as a result are complete idiots.

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Penny S
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# 14768

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There may well be a swing back - but before there is, there will be 'collateral damage' of people whose lives are wrecked, as there are here.
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Marvin the Martian

Interplanetary
# 4360

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quote:
Originally posted by Gramps49:
An interesting comment I heard this evening was America is made up of two groups: those who live on the coast, and the fly-over people. For too long the people in the middle, the flyover people, have felt their concerns were not being heard. Now, they have spoken. And America has heard their voice.

I've been saying something similar since before the election. It seems like the talking heads are finally catching up.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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RuthW

liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13

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I'd have more sympathy for them if they'd stop blaming immigrants, Muslims, gays, et alia for the shape the country is in. That they've figured out that the Republican establishment doesn't give a shit about them is awesome. That they've decided the answer is to elect a guy who has made racist whites feel more free to attack and assault people on the street - not so much. (If you haven't seen the reports of this, say so, and I'll post links.)
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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330

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There is a nasty smelling odour in the air from certain quarters that is trying to say that no, this isn't that bad and that those who are scared need to just calm down* because he isn't or might not be a racist xenophobic, homophobic arse.

As others have said, these kinds of statements seem only to be coming from the white privileged set who aren't likely to be much affected by a Trump administration.

*given that this is coming from Mad Melanie Philips, it is quite a statement

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my new book: Biblical But Bollocks. Available in all good bookshops.

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