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Source: (consider it) Thread: Bloody Brexiteers
Nightlamp
Shipmate
# 266

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Found myself in a storm thread & I can't bloody believe that people are voting to leave & can't see the carnage it will do to the economy & to international relations.

It is all about freedom, a delusion that leaving the EU will control immigration and the NHS will then have pots of money, a stupid idiotic myth myth created by Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson and people believe it.

Yes it might work all right at the bloody end but in the mean time the UK will have to go through a really miserable time of probably many years.

Stupid David Cameron for allowing us to get us in this awful situation & ridiculous Corbyn for not being man enough to work with the Cameron for the good of the country.

I am Euro sceptic but I am not going vote for an unknown never, never land.

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I don't know what you are talking about so it couldn't have been that important- Nightlamp

Posts: 8442 | From: Midlands | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984

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Seriously, have you not seen the God alone knows how many stump speeches, videos, adverts, podcasts, Corbyn's done about this - as for appearing with the Prime Minister - both men's core supporters and internal party rivals would tear them apart. It would be of no value to the remain campaign whatsoever and they both know it.

That said, I agree with you about brexit being short termist politicking based on half truths and fantasy.

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

Posts: 19150 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005  |  IP: Logged
Nightlamp
Shipmate
# 266

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If Corbyn can share a stage with Hamas supporters he can share a stage with David Cameron. Typical politician prioritising his position over the good of the country.
Brexiteers thinking that leaving the EU might destroy it as if that was a good thing for the world...

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I don't know what you are talking about so it couldn't have been that important- Nightlamp

Posts: 8442 | From: Midlands | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
rolyn
Shipmate
# 16840

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If large proportion of the Electorate are looking to bunch of Mavericks for salvation then one only needs to ask -- Why?
I'll tell for why. It is because are glorious, once trusted and revered institutions have fucked the masses over one time too many.

WMD,s that didn't exist.
A recession that wasn't going to happen.
Child abuse rings operating right under the noses of Police, social services and politicians with the media gagged.
Blatant and unchecked tax evasion by the rich and powerful.

To name but a few, (and before anyone says, I know exiting the EU won't make a damn bit of difference to the above). The point is people are heartily sick of Experts telling them what will be for the best and many have turned to their gut instinct to tell them what is best.

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Change is the only certainty of existence

Posts: 3037 | From: U.K. | Registered: Dec 2011  |  IP: Logged
Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984

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quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
If Corbyn can share a stage with Hamas supporters he can share a stage with David Cameron. Typical politician prioritising his position over the good of the country.
Brexiteers thinking that leaving the EU might destroy it as if that was a good thing for the world...

Do you really think it would help ? I think that those likely to losten to either of them would be turned off by their appearing together - it is not whether he can do it, it is whether it is useful to the remain campaign to do it.

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

Posts: 19150 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005  |  IP: Logged
RooK

1 of 6
# 1852

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quote:
Originally posted by rolyn:
If large proportion of the Electorate are looking to bunch of Mavericks for salvation then one only needs to ask -- Why?

No, one needn't. For the answer is obvious: they're stupid.

Like you.

Posts: 15095 | From: Portland, Oregon, USA, Earth | Registered: Nov 2001  |  IP: Logged
Firenze

Ordinary decent pagan
# 619

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Labour shared a platform with the Tories in the Scottish Indyref and look where that got them.

Win or lose, Cameron is a toxic brand.

If you have an argument to make, base it on your own convictions and principles.

Posts: 17234 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
Nightlamp
Shipmate
# 266

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Hamas is not a toxic brand? Corbyn is just the same as any other politician he just fools himself and others he is not.

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I don't know what you are talking about so it couldn't have been that important- Nightlamp

Posts: 8442 | From: Midlands | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
jacobsen

seeker
# 14998

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quote:
Originally posted by Firenze:
Labour shared a platform with the Tories in the Scottish Indyref and look where that got them.

Win or lose, Cameron is a toxic brand.

If you have an argument to make, base it on your own convictions and principles.

I take it that that last comment refers to Cameron, whose "principles" appear to operate on a swivel basis.

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But God, holding a candle, looks for all who wander, all who search. - Shifra Alon
Beauty fades, dumb is forever-Judge Judy
The man who made time, made plenty.

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Firenze

Ordinary decent pagan
# 619

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Not really. I think Labour should base the argument for Remain on the likes of workers's rights, cooperation in science, funding of projects for social good, reciprocal health care etc.

I doubt if Cameron could find a principle with Klieg lights and a magnifying glass on white paper at noonday.

Posts: 17234 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
L'organist
Shipmate
# 17338

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posted by Rolyn
quote:
The point is people are heartily sick of Experts telling them what will be for the best and many have turned to their gut instinct to tell them what is best.
Got it in one.

And every "expert" rolled out by the Remain campaign loses them more votes. And STILL they can't get their collective head around that and leave the "experts" out of it.

For sheer stupidity alone, the Remainers deserve to lose.

[ 07. June 2016, 09:36: Message edited by: L'organist ]

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Rara temporum felicitate ubi sentire quae velis et quae sentias dicere licet

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:
posted by Rolyn
quote:
The point is people are heartily sick of Experts telling them what will be for the best and many have turned to their gut instinct to tell them what is best.
Got it in one.

And every "expert" rolled out by the Remain campaign loses them more votes. And STILL they can't get their collective head around that and leave the "experts" out of it.

For sheer stupidity alone, the Remainers deserve to lose.

So, what do you recommend? There has been a consistent message from the electorate (at least, as reported in the media) that what they most want is to know the facts. How do you propose to provide the electorate with facts if you want prevent the experts who can present and explain those facts from contributing to the debate?

There have, of course, been some very stupid things presented by both sides. And, therefore, on the "sheer stupidity" scale, both sides deserve to lose. Maybe that's inevitable when the whole referendum is a stupid idea. But, producing people who can present and explain facts has not been one of those stupid things.

If the electorate don't want to base their decisions on facts (despite saying that's what they want) then the UK is so far up shit creek that whether we're in or out of the EU is minor issue. We might as well just invite Trump to come over and run for President.

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

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Ariel
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# 58

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quote:
Originally posted by Rolyn
The point is people are heartily sick of Experts telling them what will be for the best and many have turned to their gut instinct to tell them what is best.

The only problem with that is that my gut instinct is saying I want to be In the common market and have free trade but Out of most of the rest of it, and neither party is offering that.

We need an Indecisive Party and a third option on the ballot paper that goes something like "Oh God, don't ask me these questions, I don't know."

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Firenze

Ordinary decent pagan
# 619

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I think you are defining 'expert' as 'someone saying something I disagree with' rather than 'someone who knows what they are talking about and whom I would be well-advised to heed'.

I am basing this on the apparent opposition to 'gut instinct'. My innards tell me lots of things, but in general I find it safer to consult my brain.

Posts: 17234 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
Paul.
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# 37

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In the words of Rob from Nick Hornby's High Fidelity:

quote:
I've come to the conclusion that my guts have shit for brains

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Penny S
Shipmate
# 14768

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On the whole, I feel that going with the people who want out, whose views on matters I know about I find repulsive, and who have brought this referendum on us as a result of cosying up to people who seem very xenophobic about migrants, and who said a programme telling us about the troubles of refugees shouldn't have been shown because it was biassed against leaving is not something I should be doing.

OTOH, I am very dubious about TTIP, which we would be dragged into if remaining, with its clauses allowing very unelected commercial corporations to ride roughshod over the decisions of elected governments. Presumably backed up by someone's military in the manner of certain states in the Americas and covert action as with others such as Greece and Iran, since their private kangaroo courts would have no powers to enforce decisions if rejected. Only it could be done openly because approved in these treaty laws.

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Barnabas62
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# 9110

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quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:
posted by Rolyn
quote:
The point is people are heartily sick of Experts telling them what will be for the best and many have turned to their gut instinct to tell them what is best.
Got it in one.

And every "expert" rolled out by the Remain campaign loses them more votes. And STILL they can't get their collective head around that and leave the "experts" out of it.

For sheer stupidity alone, the Remainers deserve to lose.

What is really stupid is swallowing the idea that experts are "experts" and can therefore be disregarded because they are clearly in Cameron's pocket and making selective use of facts. The Brexit anti-"expert" campaign is pure Bulverism.

Show me a Brexit argument which addresses the substance of the economic and political arguments in favour of remaining which have been given by experts. As opposed to simple rubbishing, which any fool can do.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Nightlamp
Shipmate
# 266

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The UK will have no choice but to sign up to TTIP if we vote leave as it will be desperate to form any trade agreement with the USA no matter how lunatic it is. Inside the EU there is at least the protection of the European parliament.

I find Brexiteers supporting the facts of Gove who says there will be loads of cash for the NHS above that of the IFS who says there will none completely bonkers.

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I don't know what you are talking about so it couldn't have been that important- Nightlamp

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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713

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quote:
Originally posted by Penny S:


OTOH, I am very dubious about TTIP, which we would be dragged into if remaining, with its clauses allowing very unelected commercial corporations to ride roughshod over the decisions of elected governments. Presumably backed up by someone's military in the manner of certain states in the Americas and covert action as with others such as Greece and Iran, since their private kangaroo courts would have no powers to enforce decisions if rejected. Only it could be done openly because approved in these treaty laws.

I'm not dubious about TTIP one bit. It's evil. Democratic rule is being rolled back as commercial interests take over and TTIP will be another nail in democracy's coffin.

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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"

(Paul Sinha, BBC)

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Tubbs

Miss Congeniality
# 440

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quote:
Originally posted by Penny S:
On the whole, I feel that going with the people who want out, whose views on matters I know about I find repulsive, and who have brought this referendum on us as a result of cosying up to people who seem very xenophobic about migrants, and who said a programme telling us about the troubles of refugees shouldn't have been shown because it was biassed against leaving is not something I should be doing.

OTOH, I am very dubious about TTIP, which we would be dragged into if remaining, with its clauses allowing very unelected commercial corporations to ride roughshod over the decisions of elected governments. Presumably backed up by someone's military in the manner of certain states in the Americas and covert action as with others such as Greece and Iran, since their private kangaroo courts would have no powers to enforce decisions if rejected. Only it could be done openly because approved in these treaty laws.

Actually we're less likely to get TTIP if we stay in the EU. For it to be enacted in Europe, it would have to ratified by all the member countries. A few, including Greece, have said they'll never agree to it.

We are, almost certainly going to get TTIP if we leave the EU. It's the sort of pro-business policy that the Tories love. [Big Grin]

Tubbs

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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am

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Tubbs

Miss Congeniality
# 440

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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:
posted by Rolyn
quote:
The point is people are heartily sick of Experts telling them what will be for the best and many have turned to their gut instinct to tell them what is best.
Got it in one.

And every "expert" rolled out by the Remain campaign loses them more votes. And STILL they can't get their collective head around that and leave the "experts" out of it.

For sheer stupidity alone, the Remainers deserve to lose.

What is really stupid is swallowing the idea that experts are "experts" and can therefore be disregarded because they are clearly in Cameron's pocket and making selective use of facts. The Brexit anti-"expert" campaign is pure Bulverism.

Show me a Brexit argument which addresses the substance of the economic and political arguments in favour of remaining which have been given by experts. As opposed to simple rubbishing, which any fool can do.

They don't have any. They're too busy throwing around buzzwords like freedom and demogracy and appealing to some people's inner racist.

And, if we do leave, what's the plan? It's not enough to keep saying we won't have the EU, but what will we have instead? Splendid isolationism isn't working that well for North Korea but if we join EEA, then we're back where we started but without any actual say.

Tubbs

[ 07. June 2016, 12:39: Message edited by: Tubbs ]

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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am

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L'organist
Shipmate
# 17338

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posted by Ariel
quote:
The only problem with that is that my gut instinct is saying I want to be In the common market and have free trade but Out of most of the rest of it, and neither party is offering that.
In other words, you want what we were told we would get if we voted to remain in 1975. Shame that it is now clear that it was Government policy to lie to the electorate if any questions were asked about political or social union - and that IS a fact, borne out by papers released under the 30 year rule.

But we CAN get what you want again because there is EFTA (the European Free Trade Area), and there is a blanket agreement (the EEA) for those countries within EFTA for trade with the EU.

As for those who believe the "experts" are telling the truth, try this one for size: within the figures for "Exports to the EU from the UK" there is one giant elephant, namely those goods which go to countries outside the EU but via Rotterdam; once those are stripped out the trade balance with the EU is a lot less rosy than Remain would have you believe.

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Rara temporum felicitate ubi sentire quae velis et quae sentias dicere licet

Posts: 4603 | From: somewhere in England... | Registered: Sep 2012  |  IP: Logged
Tubbs

Miss Congeniality
# 440

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quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:
posted by Ariel
quote:
The only problem with that is that my gut instinct is saying I want to be In the common market and have free trade but Out of most of the rest of it, and neither party is offering that.
In other words, you want what we were told we would get if we voted to remain in 1975. Shame that it is now clear that it was Government policy to lie to the electorate if any questions were asked about political or social union - and that IS a fact, borne out by papers released under the 30 year rule.

But we CAN get what you want again because there is EFTA (the European Free Trade Area), and there is a blanket agreement (the EEA) for those countries within EFTA for trade with the EU.

As for those who believe the "experts" are telling the truth, try this one for size: within the figures for "Exports to the EU from the UK" there is one giant elephant, namely those goods which go to countries outside the EU but via Rotterdam; once those are stripped out the trade balance with the EU is a lot less rosy than Remain would have you believe.

Every economist of note believes that we're better off in, apart from one who's name I can't remember. And even he admits that leaving would cost the UK our remaining manufacturing industries. Pesky experts.

You might want to look at the small print of EFTA before getting excited. Being part of EFTA means accepting EU legislation covering the four freedoms — the free movement of goods, services, persons and capital — throughout the 31 EEA States.

Given that the free movement of persons is what's caused much of the trouble I can see Nigel and his ilk leading the brave charge to Oppose That Sort Of Thing.

Tubbs

[ 07. June 2016, 12:40: Message edited by: Tubbs ]

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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am

Posts: 12618 | From: Someplace strange | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
Ariel
Shipmate
# 58

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quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:
In other words, you want what we were told we would get if we voted to remain in 1975.

Yes, that is what I want, but I don't think Leave will achieve it. In 40 years the culture of the country has changed and I'm not at all convinced that we could make it on our own. I see it more as being outside a closed door while the people in the room inside decide whether they want anything to do with us. I want to vote Leave but you can't live on past glories or hope to revive them in their entirety: there has to be some adaptation to the circumstances of the present and some of the glories have had their day and others are no longer feasible. I think we would struggle. And I think we're screwed whatever result we get.
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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:
within the figures for "Exports to the EU from the UK" there is one giant elephant, namely those goods which go to countries outside the EU but via Rotterdam; once those are stripped out the trade balance with the EU is a lot less rosy than Remain would have you believe.

And, on the flip side there is a lot of goods from elsewhere in the EU that get shipped through UK ports. Why do goods made in one country get put on ships in another? Simple - because it's cheaper (presumably some destinations are cheaper from the UK, others from elsewhere in the EU). So, UK exporters will have to pay more (by either paying tariffs to ship via Rotterdam or paying the extra costs of shipping from a UK port), and EU exporters will pay more (because they will no longer have access to the cheaper UK ports). Everyone loses. Whoopee.

But, the amount of finished goods being shipped from other EU ports is relatively small. Much, much greater are UK manufactured goods that are parts for other goods assembled elsewhere in the EU and then exported. Or, parts from elsewhere in the EU that end up in products finished in the UK. Those complex webs of suppliers and customers for parts have taken decades to establish, and many of them will probably survive a Brexit but not all. Another boot into British business.

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

Posts: 31964 | From: East Kilbride (Scotland) or 福島 | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Nightlamp
Shipmate
# 266

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quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:

But we CAN get what you want again because there is EFTA (the European Free Trade Area), and there is a blanket agreement (the EEA) for those countries within EFTA for trade with the EU.

Oh yes the EEA a bit like the opposite to having your cake and eating it.

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I don't know what you are talking about so it couldn't have been that important- Nightlamp

Posts: 8442 | From: Midlands | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
lilBuddha
Shipmate
# 14333

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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:

Show me a Brexit argument which addresses the substance of the economic and political arguments in favour of remaining which have been given by experts. As opposed to simple rubbishing, which any fool can do.

It isn't what any fool can say, but what any fool wants believe.
Look at Ariel's post. She's reasoned out why Remain is better, but doesn't like it. She is putting reason above ideology, but many will not.

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So goodnight moon, I want the sun
If it's not here soon, I might be done
No it won't be too soon 'til I say goodnight moon

- A. N. Parsley, D. Mcvinni

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fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
# 13919

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Ah sure it'll be alright. If it all sinks down the plug hole you can always devalue the pound and magic money out of exports to the folks you just slapped in the face ten minutes earlier. Be grand. Honest.

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

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Tubbs

Miss Congeniality
# 440

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quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
quote:
Originally posted by L'organist:

But we CAN get what you want again because there is EFTA (the European Free Trade Area), and there is a blanket agreement (the EEA) for those countries within EFTA for trade with the EU.

Oh yes the EEA a bit like the opposite to having your cake and eating it.
It may be valid to say that if the UK joins EFTA, then some of the worst economic effects of Brexit would be lost BUT some of the Leave campaign's comments over the last few months would make that a very difficult political sell. And it's the worst of both worlds.

Tubbs

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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am

Posts: 12618 | From: Someplace strange | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330

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To me, the problem is that we're being offered a binary choice by people who are all clearly talking bollocks.

The Leave position seems to be "look, if we're not spending money on the EU, we can spend more on the NHS". Yeah, bollocks. Even if there were the amounts they're claiming could be freed up from leaving the EU - which almost everyone credible is saying are total exaggerations - there is no way whatsoever that the Europhile Tories and UKIPers would say "oh, ok then, we'll just forget privatising the NHS, forget cutting services, and instead put more taxpayer money into pensions, the NHS, the steelworks, fishing, farming... etc"

If there was any money spare, they would be looking to prop up their own white-elephant economic projects and looking to reduce taxes for their core constituents.

On the Remain side, a vote-of-confidence in the EU will be used as a blank cheque to justify anything they feel like - including TTIP etc. Yes, Cornwall, South Wales and elsewhere have benefited from EU funds, but the chances of any more coming in that direction are negligible to none.

And that's the trouble for Corbyn and the left. Those leading both Remain and Leave are fixated with the kinds of laissez-faire economics that caused the last crash and which are causing the problems in the South of Europe. Jumping into bed with Cameron is to find one on the same side as someone who believes only in feathering his own nest and couldn't give a shit about the things the left really cares about - rights for working people, fair wages, justice for the exploited and so on. Giving them a win will almost inevitably lead to the weakening of Europe's policies in these areas as the next step for the Tories would be to pull out from the European Convention on Human Rights and assorted other Directives that the blood-suckers who support the Tories don't much like.

But unlike 1975, there is no strong left argument against the EU - so the odd individual who takes that position is left floundering about with only Farage and Widdecombe for company. Leaving the EU is even less likely to bring stronger protections for most working people.

Another point is that whichever way the referendum goes, there is going to be an almighty fight in Parliament. At present there (appears to be) a majority of MPs in favour of Remain. If the country votes Leave with a slight majority - but, for example, a minority of voters in Scotland - it isn't clear how it would be ratified. Presumably if the MPs refused to vote with the will of the country shown in the Referendum, the only alternative would be a fresh General Election, but goodness knows what the result of that would be or what would happen in/to Scotland.

If the result is Remain with a slight majority in the Referendum, I don't see Farage going away any time soon and so UKIP and their dirty xenophobic mates would likely resort to any tactic in and out of Parliament to get their way. I'd imagine a whole lot of difficult debates and narrow votes in favour of even more painful forms of austerity.

If it doesn't cause a run on the £ and an instant recession - whatever happens - I'd be very surprised.

[ 07. June 2016, 14:19: Message edited by: mr cheesy ]

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overheard on a Welsh bus-stop: Jesus don't care about you, he's only interested in your soul

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fletcher christian

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I think it would be fairly certain that in the event of an exit, Scotland would not just slowly stagger towards independence - as it is doing now - but take a running jump at it. I'm somewhat surprised that little has been made of this in the 'remain' campaign, but I guess there is no desire to add yet another hot political potato.

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Barnabas62
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# 9110

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In the case of a Brexit vote, Mrs B and I are thinking of "emigrating" to an independent Scotland as soon as family commitments permit. One option would be to find somewhere to live on Mull and provide a holiday haven for children and grandchildren. They would enjoy the eagles, sea eagles, otters and friendly folk. So would we, even in the winter.

I'm not a little Englander, never have been. I don't want to see England go that way. But I guess it might.

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Tubbs

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# 440

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
To me, the problem is that we're being offered a binary choice by people who are all clearly talking bollocks.

The Leave position seems to be "look, if we're not spending money on the EU, we can spend more on the NHS". Yeah, bollocks. Even if there were the amounts they're claiming could be freed up from leaving the EU - which almost everyone credible is saying are total exaggerations - there is no way whatsoever that the Europhile Tories and UKIPers would say "oh, ok then, we'll just forget privatising the NHS, forget cutting services, and instead put more taxpayer money into pensions, the NHS, the steelworks, fishing, farming... etc"

If there was any money spare, they would be looking to prop up their own white-elephant economic projects and looking to reduce taxes for their core constituents.

On the Remain side, a vote-of-confidence in the EU will be used as a blank cheque to justify anything they feel like - including TTIP etc. Yes, Cornwall, South Wales and elsewhere have benefited from EU funds, but the chances of any more coming in that direction are negligible to none.

And that's the trouble for Corbyn and the left. Those leading both Remain and Leave are fixated with the kinds of laissez-faire economics that caused the last crash and which are causing the problems in the South of Europe. Jumping into bed with Cameron is to find one on the same side as someone who believes only in feathering his own nest and couldn't give a shit about the things the left really cares about - rights for working people, fair wages, justice for the exploited and so on. Giving them a win will almost inevitably lead to the weakening of Europe's policies in these areas as the next step for the Tories would be to pull out from the European Convention on Human Rights and assorted other Directives that the blood-suckers who support the Tories don't much like.

But unlike 1975, there is no strong left argument against the EU - so the odd individual who takes that position is left floundering about with only Farage and Widdecombe for company. Leaving the EU is even less likely to bring stronger protections for most working people.

Another point is that whichever way the referendum goes, there is going to be an almighty fight in Parliament. At present there (appears to be) a majority of MPs in favour of Remain. If the country votes Leave with a slight majority - but, for example, a minority of voters in Scotland - it isn't clear how it would be ratified. Presumably if the MPs refused to vote with the will of the country shown in the Referendum, the only alternative would be a fresh General Election, but goodness knows what the result of that would be or what would happen in/to Scotland.

If the result is Remain with a slight majority in the Referendum, I don't see Farage going away any time soon and so UKIP and their dirty xenophobic mates would likely resort to any tactic in and out of Parliament to get their way. I'd imagine a whole lot of difficult debates and narrow votes in favour of even more painful forms of austerity.

If it doesn't cause a run on the £ and an instant recession - whatever happens - I'd be very surprised.

At the moment, the speculation is that the pro-EU MPs will push for EFTA in the event of a successful Leave vote as that means we wouldn't lose the valuable trade links. (But brings its own problems). That might keep Scotland around for a little longer, but in the event of Brexit, they've already said they will go for another refendum as soon as they can get one. And that one will work. Frankly, I don't blame them!

Farage has already said that if Leave lose, they will just keep demanding a re-do until "the will of the British people prevails" and they get the result they wanted in the first place. I can see the Tories running in the next election on a Leave ticket. Headed by Boris [Projectile]

Tubbs

[ 07. June 2016, 14:55: Message edited by: Tubbs ]

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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
I think it would be fairly certain that in the event of an exit, Scotland would not just slowly stagger towards independence - as it is doing now - but take a running jump at it. I'm somewhat surprised that little has been made of this in the 'remain' campaign, but I guess there is no desire to add yet another hot political potato.

That has been a feature of the discussion in Scotland. But, I'm not too sure if it would be that big an issue in England. Would many people south of Hadrians Wall care that much if the Scots gain independence of Westmonster to maintain the very beneficial links with Europe?

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fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
# 13919

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As an observer from the outside it's rather frightening to see it all played out in the realm of 'economics'. I'm sure that is a major part of it for the 'remain' campaign, but I'm seeing the 'leave' campaign more in line with the western swing to the right and the alarming rise of insular nationalism. I suspect there is a hell of a lot more to be losing than just money and trade; but then I've always argued this point about Europe on these boards in the past and had little other than scorn for stating it. I'd love to think that sense would prevail and the remain campaign will win, but I'm beginning to think it might be very close indeed; almost too close for comfort.

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Tubbs

Miss Congeniality
# 440

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
I think it would be fairly certain that in the event of an exit, Scotland would not just slowly stagger towards independence - as it is doing now - but take a running jump at it. I'm somewhat surprised that little has been made of this in the 'remain' campaign, but I guess there is no desire to add yet another hot political potato.

That has been a feature of the discussion in Scotland. But, I'm not too sure if it would be that big an issue in England. Would many people south of Hadrians Wall care that much if the Scots gain independence of Westmonster to maintain the very beneficial links with Europe?
Based on a read of some of the comments on FB, they're just in denial. Devo-Max is apparently way better than EU membership apparently. Boris and Nigel said so.

Tubbs

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"It's better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it up and remove all doubt" - Dennis Thatcher. My blog. Decide for yourself which I am

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fletcher christian

Mutinous Seadog
# 13919

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Posted by Alan:
quote:

Would many people south of Hadrians Wall care that much if the Scots gain independence of Westmonster to maintain the very beneficial links with Europe?

I don't know the answer to that to be honest, but what I do know is that when/if it comes they will suddenly find they care an awful lot. All things Scottish aside (and there is a lot there that will vex those south of Hadrian's Wall) the result of it would have a hugely destabilising influence on the political climate of Northern Ireland and possibly even the Republic of Ireland. It may also wake a sleeping dragon a little closer to home. It really could get very messy and I'm not at all sure England would survive it.

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

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Baptist Trainfan
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# 15128

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
And that's the trouble for Corbyn and the left. Those leading both Remain and Leave are fixated with the kinds of laissez-faire economics that caused the last crash and which are causing the problems in the South of Europe. Jumping into bed with Cameron is to find one on the same side as someone who believes only in feathering his own nest and couldn't give a shit about the things the left really cares about - rights for working people, fair wages, justice for the exploited and so on. Giving them a win will almost inevitably lead to the weakening of Europe's policies in these areas as the next step for the Tories would be to pull out from the European Convention on Human Rights and assorted other Directives that the blood-suckers who support the Tories don't much like.

Interestingly enough we had an EU Referendum debate at our church last week. Speaking for "Remain" was the Tory MP Ben Gummer; speaking for "Leave" was the Labour MP Kelvin Hopkins.

What was fascinating is that Hopkins, a left-winger, constantly looked back to the 1950s as a golden age of social democracy which, he believes, worked on behalf of the people and was embedded into the early days of the EEC. However he sees the present EU as dominated by monetarist and business interests which work against the people.

Gummer, on the other hand, felt that we could not look back to the past, however rosy it may have been, and sees working together in the EU as the best way of counteracting the power of multinational corporations. It was a strange reversal of their natural positions.

I am no Tory but Ben was the better speaker and his arguments much more persuasive. He also shared a vision which went beyond mere economics.

PS Gove and Boris have BOTH been in town today ... no doubt we shall see their gloating on the local news bulletin later.

[ 07. June 2016, 15:22: Message edited by: Baptist Trainfan ]

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Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by Baptist Trainfan:
PS Gove and Boris have BOTH been in town today ... no doubt we shall see their gloating on the local news bulletin later.

That will be something to look forward too.

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Don't Brexit if you haven't a scooby how to fix it.

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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
That has been a feature of the discussion in Scotland. But, I'm not too sure if it would be that big an issue in England. Would many people south of Hadrians Wall care that much if the Scots gain independence of Westmonster to maintain the very beneficial links with Europe?

I have no idea whether it is true or not - but there is a perception for some in England that they're paying for Scots (and to a lesser extent the Welsh) to have a cushy life whilst things get worse here.

So to that extent, I think there would be general support in England for Scottish Independence, so that some other bugger can pay for their social security bill. Whether the EU would want Scotland (or whether Scotland could alone negotiate a better relationship with the EU than the rest of the UK is an open question in my mind).

If Scotland were to go Independent, I think the next logical step would be for London to become a city state like Singapore. Northern Ireland and (parts of?) Wales (possibly also Cornwall and Northumberland) get some kind of encouragement to become their own - likely very poor - states with minimal contact with London.

Even if that doesn't happen, I can see the "extremities" getting increasingly shut out from Westminster plans.

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overheard on a Welsh bus-stop: Jesus don't care about you, he's only interested in your soul

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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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quote:
Originally posted by Baptist Trainfan:
Interestingly enough we had an EU Referendum debate at our church last week. Speaking for "Remain" was the Tory MP Ben Gummer; speaking for "Leave" was the Labour MP Kelvin Hopkins.

What was fascinating is that Hopkins, a left-winger, constantly looked back to the 1950s as a golden age of social democracy which, he believes, worked on behalf of the people and was embedded into the early days of the EEC. However he sees the present EU as dominated by monetarist and business interests which work against the people.

I understand that was basically the position of Tony Benn in opposing the EEC in 1975.

quote:
Gummer, on the other hand, felt that we could not look back to the past, however rosy it may have been, and sees working together in the EU as the best way of counteracting the power of multinational corporations. It was a strange reversal of their natural positions.
When you hear a Tory talking about countering the power of corporations, you know it is a temporary position they're using to get votes. Because no Tory actually believes in limiting the power of corps.

quote:
I am no Tory but Ben was the better speaker and his arguments much more persuasive. He also shared a vision which went beyond mere economics.

PS Gove and Boris have BOTH been in town today ... no doubt we shall see their gloating on the local news bulletin later.

Sadly that's the problem. Protecting ourselves from corporations is a winning argument, but it becomes completely bastardised when borrowed as an argument by Tories.

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overheard on a Welsh bus-stop: Jesus don't care about you, he's only interested in your soul

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Baptist Trainfan
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# 15128

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I tend to agree, although I know Ben quite well and believe him to be a man of integrity - he has held this view publicly for at least two years that I know of.

It's a shame he's a Conservative: in my view he'd make a good right-of-centre LibDem!

[ 07. June 2016, 15:45: Message edited by: Baptist Trainfan ]

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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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quote:
Originally posted by Baptist Trainfan:
I tend to agree, although I know Ben quite well and believe him to be a man of integrity - he has held this view publicly for at least two years that I know of.

It's a shame he's a Conservative: in my view he'd make a good right-of-centre LibDem!

OK even if he is the one living Tory who actually has his head screwed on the right way around, the fact is that others are going to use a Remain mandate in ways he doesn't want.

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Dafyd
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# 5549

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quote:
Originally posted by mr cheesy:
When you hear a Tory talking about countering the power of corporations, you know it is a temporary position they're using to get votes. Because no Tory actually believes in limiting the power of corps.

It used to be a strain in conservative thinking. Thatcher tried to weed out those who thought that way, but I'm not altogether surprised there's some still around.

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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Leorning Cniht
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# 17564

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
Would many people south of Hadrians Wall care that much if the Scots gain independence of Westmonster to maintain the very beneficial links with Europe?

What are the consequences of Brexit followed by Scindependence and Screadmission? Is it automatic trade and movement barriers between England and Scotland until the UK negotiates something with the whole EU, or can the UK and Scotland make their own side deal as part of independence without involving the rest of the EU?
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mr cheesy
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# 3330

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quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
What are the consequences of Brexit followed by Scindependence and Screadmission? Is it automatic trade and movement barriers between England and Scotland until the UK negotiates something with the whole EU, or can the UK and Scotland make their own side deal as part of independence without involving the rest of the EU?

I don't know. But we do have a bit of history with other former relationships - such as with the Irish Republic and the Commonwealth countries. Of course, an ex-EU relationship would be different, but Irish people are free to live (and unusually vote in GE and the Referendum) in the UK, which must be due to a bilateral relationship between Eire and the UK rather than with the EU. The Commonwealth relationship is a bit stranger, but they also can vote in the current referendum at least.

My guess is that there will continue to be a free trade relationship with the Republic with no borders on the island of Ireland. Because basically it'd be a convoluted thing to take stuff from the UK to the EU via the Republic. Probably not worth trying to control.

I think it'd be highly likely this would also be the trading relationship with an Indie Scotland, which I think would probably remain with Sterling at least in the short term. Again, there are few direct land trading links between Scotland and the rest of the EU, so it probably wouldn't be worth setting up a separate customs zone just for that.

More difficult, I think, would be to work out how exactly Eire and an Indie Scotland could be managed as EU states with a non-EU rUK in the way. Clearly they wouldn't be in Schengen, but how could they be in the EU free trading zone? I'm not sure it would be possible.

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Schroedinger's cat

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# 64

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quote:
Originally posted by Nightlamp:
Hamas is not a toxic brand? Corbyn is just the same as any other politician he just fools himself and others he is not.

I have to say, I think Cameron is more toxic than Hamas. At least his meetings with Hamas were in the name of negotiating peace. I think meeting with Cameron would be suicidal for him. And stupid - Cameron is on the way out, whatever the result.

Corbyn has been making his points. But he does not get listened to and reported in the media. That is his problem, and he has not had enough time to establish his media presence. He is not particularly good at it either (much as I like him).

The problem is that this campaign has been utterly toxic from all sides. It has been dominated by lies from all sides - I think more from the exiters, because they are making definitive statements about a situation that they have no idea about it.

I hate having Cameron and Osborne on the same side as me. They are vile and obnoxious people. But compared to the line up on the exit side, they are starting to seem almost OK*. It is making me completely sick of the politics we have in this country. I can only hope that we vote to stay in, and the exiters fuck off to somewhere else. Ideally, the depths of hell, where they will be at home.

*Almost. When I surface from the cess-pit of EU discussions.

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take out this broken heart and renew my mind.

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Doublethink.
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# 1984

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quote:
Originally posted by Firenze:
Not really. I think Labour should base the argument for Remain on the likes of workers's rights, cooperation in science, funding of projects for social good, reciprocal health care etc..

That is pretty much what the Labour In campaign is doing - but its biggest presence seems to be on Twitter, facebook and youtube. Not tending to see this stuff on tv / hear it on radio.

Plus my local party is regularly canvassing for the in vote - but to watch the tv news you'd think none of this was happening.

[ 07. June 2016, 17:59: Message edited by: Doublethink. ]

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

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Nightlamp
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# 266

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The campaign in the press is between two of the most powerful organisations in the Country:

One hand we have the Conservative party fighting hard for remain.

On the other hand we have the conservative party fighting for leave.

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I don't know what you are talking about so it couldn't have been that important- Nightlamp

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Schroedinger's cat

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# 64

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I think one of the problems is that the two people stood up as leaders of the camps is Cameron and Farage.

If I had a sniper rifle, I would probably take out Cameron.

There is nobody on the left who gets a say in the media. So the arguments from the left for staying are not heard.

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