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Source: (consider it) Thread: Purgatory: The political junkie POTUS prediction thread
Hiro's Leap

Shipmate
# 12470

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quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
Except for two things: 1. Obama will pin the blame on the Bush administration and deregulation run amuck; 2. he doesn't have to run again till 2012, when he will be able to take credit for making things better.

One problem is that for most people the problems in the last few months have been theoretical. The bulk of the actual pain will be felt during the next Presidency, and then you'll have the other party saying "See, their mishandling of the situation has made everything so much worse for you".

Another problem is that lots of people are under the impression this is going to be your typical recession - e.g. it'll be over the way the dot com one was. That's by no means assured, and even if we do get out of it in four years, oil prices are to start to hit people again.

This Presidency is going to be an incredibly hard one IMO. But I still can't see McCain having agreed to throw it...he's waited too long for his shot.

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Alfred E. Neuman

What? Me worry?
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quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
So how long do you figure it will be before the Third Amendment goes the way of the Fourth?

I'm not so much concerned that troops will be quartered in civilian homes as I am violations of the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878 (prohibiting federal uniformed services from maintaining "law and order" outside federal property) and violation of The Insurrection Act of 1807 (limiting the President from deploying troops to put down lawlessness). Of course those laws can be ignored by the executive by simply declaring a state of national emergency in war time and there wouldn't be a damned thing anyone could do about it.
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
On another, happier note: Yay, lawyers!

So the stage is set. An army of lawyers ready to contest the legitimacy of every vote in every single state of the union. The election results are delayed for months as, one after another, each state's polling is struck down and decided by the SCOTUS. The precedence has already been set by their decision to stop the Florida recount and the lack of any real objection to that abrogation of state's rights. The 1st Brigade will be ready for any frustrated citizens who think that civil unrest is a legitimate response to total federal control - even the power of an incumbent administration to decide a presidential election. We're at war, you see. It's simply a matter of declaring martial law. Now, be a good citizen and accept what is best for you in the name of National Security.

There you go... now go about your business... nothing to see here.

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--Formerly: Gort--

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art dunce
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45,000 vs 1500 today in New Mexico. Word.

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Ego is not your amigo.

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Figbash

The Doubtful Guest
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My wife found this in Times Online. A closer look at Palin in Alaska, and frankly scary. Particularly the bit about her religious views:

quote:
“Her mental structure is little different than that of an Islamic fundamentalist. The churches she attends are understood by some to have an apocalyptic view of the future, and believe she will be the leader of a new world order when Jesus returns.”

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Choirboy
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It's starting to get really ugly:

Palin's 'going rogue' McCain aide says (CNN)

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RuthW

liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
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quote:
Originally posted by Hiro's Leap:
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
Except for two things: 1. Obama will pin the blame on the Bush administration and deregulation run amuck; 2. he doesn't have to run again till 2012, when he will be able to take credit for making things better.

One problem is that for most people the problems in the last few months have been theoretical. The bulk of the actual pain will be felt during the next Presidency, and then you'll have the other party saying "See, their mishandling of the situation has made everything so much worse for you".
Sometimes it works that way, sometimes it doesn't. The highest level of US unemployment of the early 80s recession was at the end of 1982, smack in the middle of Reagan's first term, and he still got re-elected in a landslide in 1984 when things were better.

quote:
Another problem is that lots of people are under the impression this is going to be your typical recession - e.g. it'll be over the way the dot com one was. That's by no means assured, and even if we do get out of it in four years, oil prices are to start to hit people again.
If we're not out of it in four years, isn't it officially a depression then, not just a recession? FDR was re-elected twice as the Great Depression dragged on.

quote:
This Presidency is going to be an incredibly hard one IMO. But I still can't see McCain having agreed to throw it...he's waited too long for his shot.
Agreed. It's just not in him to throw a fight. He's not even reading the writing on the wall the way Dole did in 1996 and campaigning for down-ticket Republicans.
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Lyda*Rose

Ship's broken porthole
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quote:
McCain sources say Palin has gone off-message several times, and they privately wonder whether the incidents were deliberate. They cited an instance in which she labeled robocalls -- recorded messages often used to attack a candidate's opponent -- "irritating" even as the campaign defended their use.
Wow. I agree with Palin on something.

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"Dear God, whose name I do not know - thank you for my life. I forgot how BIG... thank you. Thank you for my life." ~from Joe Vs the Volcano

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FreeJack
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quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
. He's not even reading the writing on the wall the way Dole did in 1996 and campaigning for down-ticket Republicans.

[Sorry, ignorant Limey here.]

Down-ticket Republicans?

Are they Republican Party candidates for school boards, sheriff or mayor who are standing for different elections on the same day?

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cliffdweller
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quote:
from choirboy's link re: Palin "going rogue":

A second McCain source says she appears to be looking out for herself more than the McCain campaign.

"She is a diva. She takes no advice from anyone," said this McCain adviser. "She does not have any relationships of trust with any of us, her family or anyone else.

How amusing.

Maverick - rogue - raging loon.

Same thing.

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"Here is the world. Beautiful and terrible things will happen. Don't be afraid." -Frederick Buechner

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SeraphimSarov
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quote:
Originally posted by cliffdweller:
quote:
from choirboy's link re: Palin "going rogue":

A second McCain source says she appears to be looking out for herself more than the McCain campaign.

"She is a diva. She takes no advice from anyone," said this McCain adviser. "She does not have any relationships of trust with any of us, her family or anyone else.

How amusing.

Maverick - rogue - raging loon.

Same thing.

oh how the Palin gamble has cost MCCain!
A make-shift, shabbily-run, and shameful campaign.

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"For those who like that sort of thing, that is the sort of thing they like"

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Foolhearty
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I am surprised to read two things in this thread:

1. That Palin possesses a "mental structure." There's no evidence of any in her published quotes.

2. That Palin is "going rogue." AFAICS, that's the horse she rode in on.

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Zwingli
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Freejack - campaigning for Republicans in Senate, Congress and Governor races.
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RuthW

liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
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quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
. He's not even reading the writing on the wall the way Dole did in 1996 and campaigning for down-ticket Republicans.

[Sorry, ignorant Limey here.]

Down-ticket Republicans?

Are they Republican Party candidates for school boards, sheriff or mayor who are standing for different elections on the same day?

Not that far down. All the House of Representative seats are being contested (the House Reps' terms are 2 years) and approximately 1/3 of the Senate seats (6-year terms). The Democrats are looking to increase their majority in the House, but the Senate is where the real game is. The Democrats have had the slimmest of majorities in the Senate for the last two years, but are a strong bet to increase that. There is a chance they could reach 60 seats, which would give them a filibuster-proof majority. With the White House, the House, and 60 seats in the Senate, they'd have enormous power. They probably won't get quite 60, but with 57 or 58 seats, they only have to get a couple of Republican defections to get their legislation through a filibuster. If McCain wanted to, he could stop trying to win the presidency, which is at best an outside shot for him right now, and go campaign for Republicans at risk of losing their Senate seats. Holding those seats is the Republicans' best chance of keeping some measure of power in the next few years.

But McCain has never been a team player.

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FreeJack
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Thanks.

I suppose the counter-argument to that is that the best way of McCain helping a Republican in a marginal Senate/House race is to campaign hard for the marginal Republican voters who are on the edge of not turning out by giving the impression that he could still just win the presidency. Otherwise it is just 'loser McCain backing someone for Senate'.

And whoever is the Republican presidential candidate in 2012 would probably want McCain to make sure of the relative safe electoral college states so they don't have to win them back then. (Does it work like that in American psyche?)

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Erin
Meaner than Godzilla
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Well, I just cancelled out one of the seven McCain votes my immediate family will be casting. And considering that the Jags are at home today, I was positively shocked at how many people were there and how long I had to wait.

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Commandment number one: shut the hell up.

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Geneviève

Mother-Hatting Cat Lover
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quote:
Originally posted by cliffdweller:
quote:
from choirboy's link re: Palin "going rogue":

A second McCain source says she appears to be looking out for herself more than the McCain campaign.

"She is a diva. She takes no advice from anyone," said this McCain adviser. "She does not have any relationships of trust with any of us, her family or anyone else.

How amusing.

Maverick - rogue - raging loon.

Same thing.

If McCain's vetters had bothered to think at all about Palin's record in Alaska they would have realized that she did an outstanding job of pursuing her own interests--and those of her cronies, natch--and not much else. Why are they surprised?

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"Ineffable" defined: "I cannot and will not be effed with." (Courtesy of CCTooSweet in Running the Books)

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Erin
Meaner than Godzilla
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Because they are functionally stupid.

I just saw this in the Washington Post and damn near fell out of my chair laughing:

quote:
On the defensive across the country and staring down an election that could see them reduced to an ineffective minority in the House and the Senate, congressional Republicans are offering a new argument to voters: the danger of single-party rule in the nation's capital.


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Commandment number one: shut the hell up.

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Callan
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Originally posted by Seraphim Sarov:

quote:
oh how the Palin gamble has cost MCCain!
A make-shift, shabbily-run, and shameful campaign.

It's interesting to speculate about how the election would have played if McCain had been allowed to be himself and put Joe Liebermann on the ticket as his V-P Candidate. You'd then have had McCain-Leibermann offering a hawkish but bi-partisan consensus politics, steady as she goes, no time for this youthful idealism and dovishness with Putin and Bin Laden on the attack, experience in a time of crisis ticket. I'm not certain that this would have won but it would have been a threat. It would have focussed the campaign on Obama's perceived weaknesses, his inexperience and his belief that diplomacy is preferable to war.

But no, the decision was made to 'energise the base' and run with a candidate who thought that the Iraq war was God's work and who, apparently, felt it necessary to be delivered from a 'spirit of witchcraft' and who evidently is way out of her depth. Those whom the gods destroy...

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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton

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John Holding

Coffee and Cognac
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I see the Anchorage DAily News -- described as Alaska's primary daily -- has now endorsed Obama, in part because it appears to be afraid of Ms Palin being only a heartbeat from the presidency.

John

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mousethief

Ship's Thieving Rodent
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quote:
Originally posted by Erin:
Because they are functionally stupid.

I just saw this in the Washington Post and damn near fell out of my chair laughing:

quote:
On the defensive across the country and staring down an election that could see them reduced to an ineffective minority in the House and the Senate, congressional Republicans are offering a new argument to voters: the danger of single-party rule in the nation's capital.

They need to finish the logic: "After all, look at the first 6 years of the Bush administration!"

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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...

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ken
Ship's Roundhead
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quote:
Originally posted by Gildas:
It's interesting to speculate about how the election would have played if...

I've not heard the fat lady singing yet.

Now where did I put those Wagner CDs?

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Ken

L’amor che move il sole e l’altre stelle.

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Choirboy
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quote:
Originally posted by Gildas:
It's interesting to speculate about how the election would have played if McCain had been allowed to be himself and put Joe Liebermann on the ticket as his V-P Candidate.

That, or if the bottom hadn't fallen out of the financial markets. Or both. I think Obama would have had a chance to win without the financial crash, but the general estimation that it was the fault of the Republicans (either as the party in power or due to deregulation in the 90s or both) certainly makes it an easier argument.
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HenryT

Canadian Anglican
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I spent some time and a modest bit of money at Steal Back Your Vote. Others may want to do likewise.

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"Perhaps an invincible attachment to the dearest rights of man may, in these refined, enlightened days, be deemed old-fashioned" P. Henry, 1788

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Zwingli
Shipmate
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RuthW (or someone else), I've never quite understood the filibuster. How does it work, and what does it achieve? Does it apply in the House of Reps, or only the Senate?
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mousethief

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quote:
Originally posted by Zwingli:
RuthW (or someone else), I've never quite understood the filibuster. How does it work, and what does it achieve? Does it apply in the House of Reps, or only the Senate?

The filibuster only applies in the senate. The idea is that it takes a certain number of votes (60, I think) to end debate. If there aren't enough votes to end debate, debate can go on indefinitely as long as you have somebody willing to take the podium and blather. Thus, a minority can lock up the senate floor with palaver and never allow the bill to come to a vote, if the majority lacks the 60% needed to call the question. This can go on for days.

A quick google indicates that it is not actually necessary to blather any more; simply refusing to allow the vote to be called suffices, even without someone at the podium yammering.

Ultimately one side has to give -- people need to cross the aisle either to call the question, or to scrap the bill the filibusterers were blocking. Ending a filibuster is called "cloture".

This is what I can piece together from a quick google to augment what I learned in civics some (mumble mumble) years ago. Wiser heads will be along shortly to correct my misstatements (one hopes).

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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...

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Zwingli
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One other thing, were the Senate's rules deliberately designed to work in this way, or was it some unintentional loophole that the political parties managed to work out how to exploit? As in, is it a bug or a feature? It seems a pretty strange feature to put in intentionally, one that requires Senators to stand up and blather (more so than usual). Hardly something which inspires public confidence in the Senate.

Joe Biden's going to be President of the Senate, isn't he? (Assuming an Obama victory.) I'm sure he could blather for years, if required.

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Presleyterian
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Historians tend to think it was an intentional effort toward bipartisanship in what was considered to be the less "democratic" chamber. The threat of filibuster makes it harder for a slim majority to impose its will on the minority.

Oh, and the President of the Senate doesn't participate in filibusters.

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Zwingli
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Thanks Presleyterian.

No, I didn't think he did, it was just a cheap shot a Biden.

It's very different from the Australian system, where it is extremely rare for a Senator not to vote along Party lines. I think, for the ALP at least, going against the party position, if they haven't allowed a free vote, is still grounds for automatic expulsion from the ALP.

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mousethief

Ship's Thieving Rodent
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quote:
Originally posted by Zwingli:
It's very different from the Australian system, where it is extremely rare for a Senator not to vote along Party lines. I think, for the ALP at least, going against the party position, if they haven't allowed a free vote, is still grounds for automatic expulsion from the ALP.

Ick. Why not just have robots then? Or have one person who has 63 votes (or however many) rather than one person plus 62 marionettes?

(PS I thought your Biden joke was funny)

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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...

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Zwingli
Shipmate
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Usually we have more than two parties in the Senate. Currently in a senate of 76 we have 5 Greens and 2 Independents, neither major party has a majority.
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Lyda*Rose

Ship's broken porthole
# 4544

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quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
quote:
Originally posted by Zwingli:
It's very different from the Australian system, where it is extremely rare for a Senator not to vote along Party lines. I think, for the ALP at least, going against the party position, if they haven't allowed a free vote, is still grounds for automatic expulsion from the ALP.

Ick. Why not just have robots then? Or have one person who has 63 votes (or however many) rather than one person plus 62 marionettes?

(PS I thought your Biden joke was funny)

(I did, too.)

Perhaps one person doesn't want to be on all those blasted committees and subcommittees. [Biased]

Delegate, delegate, delegate!

I can see why in a parliamentary system you'd practically always have to vote party lines. If your party were the majority (or were in the majority coalition) and many of you voted against it on something important, the government goes belly up and new elections would be called. I think. [Paranoid] [Confused] Actually it sounds like a good safeguard, if I'm correct in what I understand about it. If you are a member and you and others think the government has gone off the rails, the emergency brake can be pulled.

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"Dear God, whose name I do not know - thank you for my life. I forgot how BIG... thank you. Thank you for my life." ~from Joe Vs the Volcano

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Pigwidgeon

Ship's Owl
# 10192

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quote:
Originally posted by Zwingli:
Joe Biden's going to be President of the Senate, isn't he? (Assuming an Obama victory.) I'm sure he could blather for years, if required.

I know the VP doesn't participate, and it sure looks like Biden will be the VP -- but just imagine in Sarah Barracuda were to be allowed to blather non-stop in the Senate. [Eek!]

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"...that is generally a matter for Pigwidgeon, several other consenting adults, a bottle of cheap Gin and the odd giraffe."
~Tortuf

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moron
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quote:
Originally posted by Pigwidgeon:
just imagine in Sarah Barracuda were to be allowed to blather non-stop in the Senate.

I'm struggling with the mental image: a hot Tom Daschle?
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RuthW

liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
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For everyone still worrying that too many white voters will turn racist in the voting booth and not vote for Obama:

quote:
In the latest New York Times/CBS News and Pew national polls, Obama is now pulling even with McCain among white men, a feat accomplished by no Democratic presidential candidate in three decades, Bill Clinton included. (Frank Rich in the NY Times)

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Og: Thread Killer
Ship's token CN Mennonite
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Every few years, some country or other experiences the great catharsis known as "Time to throw the Bums out!"

Is this the USA's turn for this sort of political action?

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I wish I was seeking justice loving mercy and walking humbly but... "Cease to lament for that thou canst not help, And study help for that which thou lament'st."

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ken
Ship's Roundhead
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quote:
Originally posted by ken:
quote:
Originally posted by Gildas:
It's interesting to speculate about how the election would have played if...

I've not heard the fat lady singing yet.

Now where did I put those Wagner CDs?

I'm listening to Sam Cooke singing "A Change is gonna come" right now. Been listening to it a lot recently (106 times according to my itunes screen [Eek!] ) Got copies of it by Otis Redding and a couple of other people as well. Also "People get ready" by Curtis Mayfield, and a couple of others as well.

Should I hold off on the Aretha Franklin version till next week?

)

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Ken

L’amor che move il sole e l’altre stelle.

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Horseman Bree
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The odd thing about the Liberal years under Chretien was that the bum's rush never really happened. Even with a supposedly-strong leader in the Tories and the sponsorship scandal to focus attention on the Liberals, Harper could only get a minority.

Maybe Canadians are too balanced.

OTOH, I can remember provincial elections where that rush did happen - McKenna's total sweep against the worn-out Hatfield Tories springs to mind. Now, if we could just talk some sense into the one-party state of Alberta...

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It's Not That Simple

Posts: 5372 | From: more herring choker than bluenose | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
Og: Thread Killer
Ship's token CN Mennonite
# 3200

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I think we got the "get rid of them all" out of our systems with the Campbell Tories. I have never seen so many people with so much glee upon hearing the results for the PC's.

Which leads me to wonder if that sort of duty is what is driving the incredible numbers of early voting going on.

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I wish I was seeking justice loving mercy and walking humbly but... "Cease to lament for that thou canst not help, And study help for that which thou lament'st."

Posts: 5025 | From: Toronto | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
basso

Ship’s Crypt Keeper
# 4228

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quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:
The Democrats have had the slimmest of majorities in the Senate for the last two years, but are a strong bet to increase that. There is a chance they could reach 60 seats, which would give them a filibuster-proof majority.

I really don't think that's going to happen. Even if the Dems were to win all the target seats to get to sixty (which includes some fairly right-leaning candidates, AIUI), they also need to count the two independents to get there.

If that happens, I think Lieberman will cross the aisle.

Posts: 4358 | From: Bay Area, Calif | Registered: Mar 2003  |  IP: Logged
Organ Builder
Shipmate
# 12478

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quote:
Originally posted by Horseman Bree:
Maybe Canadians are too balanced.

I wish someone could say that about the US citizenry without making me spew my diet Coke through my nose.

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How desperately difficult it is to be honest with oneself. It is much easier to be honest with other people.--E.F. Benson

Posts: 3337 | From: ...somewhere in between 40 and death... | Registered: Mar 2007  |  IP: Logged
Orb

Eye eye Cap'n!
# 3256

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quote:
Originally posted by Gort:
Obama-McCain Dance Off [warning: huge video download of candidates breakdancing]

"I would tap that, my friend..."

Sort of sums up their whole political strategy, right?

Posts: 5032 | From: Easton, Bristol | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
Alogon
Cabin boy emeritus
# 5513

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quote:
Originally posted by Josephine:
The number of prominent conservatives and life-long Republicans who are coming out and publicly endorsing Obama is breathtaking.

On the other hand, there is an organization called Democrats for McCain. It is largely led by women who never got over Hillary's defeat in the primaries. According to the radio program "This American Life," their door-to-door canvassing efforts in Pennsylvania have a gratifying rate of success in changing the minds of people who initially said that they would vote for Obama.

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Patriarchy (n.): A belief in original sin unaccompanied by a belief in God.

Posts: 7808 | From: West Chester PA | Registered: Feb 2004  |  IP: Logged
Izzybee
Shipmate
# 10931

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quote:
Originally posted by Alogon:
According to the radio program "This American Life," their door-to-door canvassing efforts in Pennsylvania have a gratifying rate of success in changing the minds of people who initially said that they would vote for Obama.

Hmm. Or who just want them to get the hell off their doorstep. I'd tell people I was voting for a shaved monkey to get them to go away - I have better things to do than talk to idiots in my free time.

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Hate filled bitch musings...

Posts: 1336 | From: Baltimore, MD | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
Foolhearty
Shipmate
# 6196

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Well, so much for the "racism-isn't-a-factor" theory:

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Fear doesn't empty tomorrow of its perils; it empties today of its power.

Posts: 2301 | From: Upper right-hand corner | Registered: May 2004  |  IP: Logged
FreeJack
Shipmate
# 10612

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If the Governor of Alaska is elected as Vice President does she automatically (or in practice) step down as Governor, and when? Is there a Vice Governor who succeeds until the next November?

If Senator Ted goes to prison or retirement home after being elected again, does the Governor (new or old) appoint his replacement in the Senate until November 2010?

I get the feeling from comet's previous comments that the said Governor and Senator don't particularly get along, even though they are both Republicans. But do they suffer each other's fate of bad publicity?

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Nicolemr
Shipmate
# 28

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I was just about to post a slightly different version of that, foolhearty. Yours has more info than mine though.

Good lord. What a pair of total losers. They're planning on invading a high school and killing 102 students by shooting and decapitating, and they think they're going to escape and continue the spree elsewhere??? And their big plan for getting obama is wearing white tuxedos and tophats, and driving at him as fast as possible shooting out the windows???

I suppose we should be pleased that this is the level of the anti-Obama nutters, but still. The imagination, it is boggled.

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On pilgrimage in the endless realms of Cyberia, currently traveling by ship. Now with live journal!

Posts: 11803 | From: New York City "The City Carries On" | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Zwingli
Shipmate
# 4438

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quote:
Originally posted by Foolhearty:
Well, so much for the "racism-isn't-a-factor" theory:

Oddly enough, I suspect that this demonstrates that racism will be a negligible factor at the ballot box. Racists aren't confident that their fellow whites won't vote for Obama, and what racists you have left seem to be too stupid to turn up to vote on the correct day and fill out an electoral ballot correctly. Disconcerting, but not tragic, news.
Posts: 4283 | Registered: Apr 2003  |  IP: Logged
nickel
Shipmate
# 8363

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^ I find it a bit sad that the tv & radio reports I've heard in the past hour were covering this a plot against the Pres candidate ... not even mentioning the 88 or so kids that were the first targets?!?!? Oh well, time enough for sordid details later. Thankfully it's just a "story", not an actual event.
Posts: 547 | From: Virginia USA | Registered: Aug 2004  |  IP: Logged
Twilight

Puddleglum's sister
# 2832

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quote:
Originally posted by ken:

I'm listening to Sam Cooke singing "A Change is gonna come" right now. Been listening to it a lot recently (106 times according to my itunes screen [Eek!] ) Got copies of it by Otis Redding and a couple of other people as well.

Should I hold off on the Aretha Franklin version till next week?


I love Aretha's version but I think Aaron Neville's is the best.

Just got a recorded message from Palin's campaign saying I was invited to her rally in Chillicothe on Wednesday, "Push 1 for details." The details told me where to buy tickets but neither message told me what time she was going to speak.

Shades of what it might be like if she's ever in charge.

Posts: 6817 | Registered: May 2002  |  IP: Logged
comet

Snowball in Hell
# 10353

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I'm trying to avoid too much Sarah coverage, she's just annoying the hell out of me at this point. BUT - I hear she's wearing her class A second hand duds now, in response to the clothing bill story. She admitted somewhere (according to friend who is glued to news channels) that her fav consignment shop is "Out of the Closet".

[Big Grin]

I have to agree, it's a great place. but HAH!

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Evil Dragon Lady, Breaker of Men's Constitutions

"It's hard to be religious when certain people are never incinerated by bolts of lightning.” -Calvin

Posts: 17024 | From: halfway between Seduction and Peril | Registered: Sep 2005  |  IP: Logged



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