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Source: (consider it) Thread: Purgatory: The political junkie POTUS prediction thread
FreeJack
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I haven't heard much about Ralph Nader and any other fringe candidates (such as the Russ Perot types).

Does that mean they are polling really badly?

Could Nader still cost Obama in a few marginal Democrat states?

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Foolhearty
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quote:
Originally posted by Golden Key:
I find it amusing that Palin might run for president in 2012. The year is reputed to be tough enough already!
[Biased]

Glad you're amused. The prospect scares the shit out of me. With four years of party grooming, she might actually come off as credible by then, and the American voter is not known for her/his long memory. Worse, Obama, should he win, is going to face steep challenges whose outworkings may leave Palin's constituents deeply disgruntled.

Fasten seat belts, fellow Americans. I think we're in for a very bumpy ride for the next 4-12 years.

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tclune
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quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
I haven't heard much about Ralph Nader and any other fringe candidates (such as the Russ Perot types).

Does that mean they are polling really badly?

Could Nader still cost Obama in a few marginal Democrat states?

Nader is not likely to make much difference this year. The thing that seems to be worrying Republicans is that Bob Barr may siphon enough votes from McCain to let Obama squeek out Georgia. But I suspect that that is unlikely, too.

--Tom Clune

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Zwingli
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Barr hasn't been campaigning that well, and a lot of libertarians aren't especially enthused about him.
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Alogon
Cabin boy emeritus
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Ron Paul is on the ballot in Montana and could subtract enough votes from McCain to give the state to Obama.

Thus far in Oregon, where all voting is by mail, the rate of incoming ballots is surprising: lower than in 2004-- although the reporter speculates that this may be because voters now more accustomed to the procedure will wait a little longer to return their forms. More surprising still is that the percentage of returned ballots is lowest in the "reddest" counties.

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Patriarchy (n.): A belief in original sin unaccompanied by a belief in God.

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Choirboy
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Is the lower voter turnout so far in red counties really that surprising?

It may be that the Republican voters are not excited about McCain and not happy with Bush, so are not participating as in the past.

Conversely, the early turnout in states with early voting elsewhere has been for the most part pro-Obama, and it may just be that the conservative vote will come in later.

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IconiumBound
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quote:
posted by OG TTTK
I'm beginning to wonder why the campaign finance thing is an issue in this case. I get why it would be if the money was mostly coming from special interest groups. But, isn't most of Obama's money coming from individuals?

I heard recently on MSNBC that Obama's total were composed of 75% from the insurance and investment bank community. I hope it doesn't mean he has sold out; of course, maybe they don't expect anything in return

[edited for code]

[ 30. October 2008, 17:34: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]

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agrgurich
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quote:
Originally posted by IconiumBound:
quote:
posted by OG TTTK
I'm beginning to wonder why the campaign finance thing is an issue in this case. I get why it would be if the money was mostly coming from special interest groups. But, isn't most of Obama's money coming from individuals?

I heard recently on MSNBC that Obama's total were composed of 75% from the insurance and investment bank community. I hope it doesn't mean he has sold out; of course, maybe they don't expect anything in return

[edited for code]

Of cource, they don't! [Snigger]

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Life is a comedy to those who think & a tragedy to those who feel.-Horace Walpole

AJG

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Alogon
Cabin boy emeritus
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quote:
Originally posted by Choirboy:
Is the lower voter turnout so far in red counties really that surprising?

It may be that the Republican voters are not excited about McCain and not happy with Bush, so are not participating as in the past.

Of course, this is the explanation that we would prefer, and we wouldn't find such good sense surprising.

But it is surprising given that the Republicans have usually been the more successful party in "getting out the vote" of those registered.

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Patriarchy (n.): A belief in original sin unaccompanied by a belief in God.

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Hiro's Leap

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quote:
Originally posted by IconiumBound:
I heard recently on MSNBC that Obama's total were composed of 75% from the insurance and investment bank community. I hope it doesn't mean he has sold out; of course, maybe they don't expect anything in return

Here's Obama's highest 20 donors (highest contributions first):
  1. University of California
  2. Goldman Sachs
  3. Harvard University
  4. Microsoft Corp
  5. Google Inc
  6. JPMorgan Chase & Co
  7. Citigroup Inc
  8. National Amusements Inc
  9. Time Warner
  10. Sidley Austin LLP
  11. Stanford University
  12. Skadden, Arps et al
  13. Wilmerhale Llp
  14. UBS AG
  15. Latham & Watkins
  16. Columbia University
  17. Morgan Stanley
  18. IBM Corp
  19. University of Chicago
  20. US Government

Here's McCain's top 20:
  1. Merrill Lynch
  2. Citigroup Inc
  3. Morgan Stanley
  4. Goldman Sachs
  5. JPMorgan Chase & Co
  6. US Government
  7. AT&T Inc
  8. Credit Suisse Group
  9. PricewaterhouseCoopers
  10. Blank Rome LLP
  11. Wachovia Corp
  12. US Army
  13. UBS AG
  14. Bank of America
  15. Greenberg Traurig LLP
  16. Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher
  17. US Dept of Defense
  18. FedEx Corp
  19. Lehman Brothers
  20. Bear Stearns
As I understand it, organisations don't contribute - the figures are from individuals, but then bundled into organisations. Is that right?

[ 30. October 2008, 19:52: Message edited by: Hiro's Leap ]

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tclune
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quote:
Originally posted by Hiro's Leap:
As I understand it, organisations don't contribute - the figures are from individuals, but then bundled into organisations. Is that right?

I've wondered about this myself. I have made a couple of small donations over the internet to the Obama campaign, and have not been asked about any company affiliation. It appears to be that the donors have wanted to make their work affiliation known to the campaign. But it may also be the case that you have to provide more information for contributions that exceed some threshold.

--Tom Clune

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basso

Ship’s Crypt Keeper
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quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
In recent weeks, it has saddened me to see John McCain, who is a decent and honourable man [...]

I used to think that of him. I'm sorry to say that I think he has forfeited all personal honor by his conduct of this campaign.
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Choirboy
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quote:
Originally posted by Alogon:
Of course, this is the explanation that we would prefer, and we wouldn't find such good sense surprising.

Well, you did chop off the last part of my post where I gave the favorable interpretation in the other direction. Whether that means I'm fair and balanced (fairly unbalanced?) or lacking good sense, I leave as an exercise for the reader. [Smile]

quote:
But it is surprising given that the Republicans have usually been the more successful party in "getting out the vote" of those registered.

The Republicans keep saying that, but I don't know if it is actually true. In recent elections, they have outnumbered registered Democrats, so may not be any better than Democrats at getting out the vote. That is not true this year, of course.

[ 30. October 2008, 20:36: Message edited by: Choirboy ]

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Robert Armin

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Hiro's Leap, even if organisations don't contribute, but individuals are bundled together depending upon for whom they work, I am amazed to see three Universities named in Obama's list. How much do academics get paid on your side of the pond?

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Keeping fit was an obsession with Fr Moity .... He did chin ups in the vestry, calisthenics in the pulpit, and had developed a series of Tai-Chi exercises to correspond with ritual movements of the Mass. The Antipope Robert Rankin

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Hiro's Leap

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quote:
Originally posted by Robert Armin:
How much do academics get paid on your side of the pond?

I'm on the good ol' Blighty side, and they don't get a huge amount. But the figures also seem to include donations from the family of people at the organisations. I imagine those universities are vast, and some of the students' parents will be moderately well off.

Still, it's an impressive figure, and shows the level of commitment Obama's been able to inspire. (I'm not too keen on the idea of candidates fund-raising in the first place, but that's a different issue.)

[ 30. October 2008, 22:18: Message edited by: Hiro's Leap ]

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Hiro's Leap

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Even more impressively, Obama's lowest sum raised on the list (US Government, $400,819) is higher than McCain's #1 donation (Merrill Lynch, $359,070).
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Amazing Grace

High Church Protestant
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Re the donations:

If you give over a certain total amount (I think it's $200), you are required to disclose your employer. I had to put mine on my No On 8 donation. Doesn't mean that my employer has an official opinion on the proposition one way or another.

I don't think that, say, UC is necessarily "bundling", just that a lot of people ponying up work for them.

For those of you outside the US, California is the campaign cash cow. Fundraisers loooove us.* We haven't seen any action since the primary except for fundraisers. Biden was here recently even though the state is > +15 for Obama ... schmoozing in two extremely well-off Bay Area neighborhoods.

* Speaker Pelosi was a party fundraiser before the Congress seat she's in now opened up. She still knows a lot of people here [Biased] .

Charlotte

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WTFWED? "Remember to always be yourself, unless you suck" - the Gator
Memory Eternal! Sheep 3, Phil the Wise Guy, and Jesus' Evil Twin in the SoF Nativity Play

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Presleyterian
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quote:
tclune wrote: I have made a couple of small donations over the internet to the Obama campaign, and have not been asked about any company affiliation.
That's funny, because I was. When I tried to contribute without it, I was told that disclosure of my employer was mandatory. (It makes sense since the FEC wants to make sure Amalgamated Multinational, Inc., isn't evading the corporate spending limitations by giving their 10,000 minimum wage workers $1000 each to contribute to the candidate of the corporation's choice.)

As for why the University of California shows up as such a big donor, I don't think it's the parents since they're not employees. The UC System may well be one of the biggest employers in the state and the vast majority of them aren't academics. The University owns the biggest hospitals in California, to say nothing of their research labs, software development subsidiaries, publishing house, real estate holdings, etc. So the contributions of the employees of all those affiliated institutions -- from groundskeepers to surgeons -- will show up as "University of California."

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Amazing Grace

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Crosspost with Presleytarian - she's right about a lot of people working for UC. The admin assistant or grad student sending in $20 a month and a physician at one of the teaching hospitals (note the plural) contributing the individual maximum have the same employer.

Charlotte

[ 31. October 2008, 00:54: Message edited by: Amazing Grace ]

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WTFWED? "Remember to always be yourself, unless you suck" - the Gator
Memory Eternal! Sheep 3, Phil the Wise Guy, and Jesus' Evil Twin in the SoF Nativity Play

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New Yorker
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I can't wait for McCain and Palin to win. Then these automated calls will stop. 5 today alone! Urr. Are they an American only phenomenon or are they used in other countries?
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comet

Snowball in Hell
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quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
I can't wait for McCain and Palin to win. Then these automated calls will stop. 5 today alone! Urr.

OMG! you mean if Obama wins the robocalls will continue? oh say it ain't so!
[Eek!]

[Razz]
I've had no home phone for the last 4 months of this campaign. it's GREAT. I may disconnect my home phone again in four years.

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Evil Dragon Lady, Breaker of Men's Constitutions

"It's hard to be religious when certain people are never incinerated by bolts of lightning.” -Calvin

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cliffdweller
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Or you can just move to a state that's not a "swing state". Doesn't matter if it's red or blue, as long as it's decisively in one column or the other. Here in California we've had no robo-calls at all, and relatively few ads (at least for the presidency-- our initiative system insures a steady stream of ads about those). I've had one or two calls from pollsters, that's it.

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"Here is the world. Beautiful and terrible things will happen. Don't be afraid." -Frederick Buechner

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comet

Snowball in Hell
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we're not a swing state by a long shot, but the calls seem to be pretty steady from what I've heard. I think it's the statewide/local elections mostly, though.

Stevens is hitting it hard for the first time in his career.

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Evil Dragon Lady, Breaker of Men's Constitutions

"It's hard to be religious when certain people are never incinerated by bolts of lightning.” -Calvin

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ChastMastr
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quote:
Originally posted by comet:
OMG! you mean if Obama wins the robocalls will continue? oh say it ain't so!
[Eek!]

It... it would be painful to endure the robocalls every day as a trade-off for Obama to win, but it would be worth it. Every time the phone rang, I'd lie back and think of England, or something.

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My essays on comics continuity: http://chastmastr.tumblr.com/tagged/continuity

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Pigwidgeon

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I'm not in a swing state so my calls aren't about the presidential candidates. There are LOTS of them, however, from local and state candidates and about the propositions. Caller ID and Call Blocking are wonderful.

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"...that is generally a matter for Pigwidgeon, several other consenting adults, a bottle of cheap Gin and the odd giraffe."
~Tortuf

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Timothy the Obscure

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If you vote early (as we can in Oregon--vote by mail is a wonderful thing)--the calls stop.

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When you think of the long and gloomy history of man, you will find more hideous crimes have been committed in the name of obedience than have ever been committed in the name of rebellion.
  - C. P. Snow

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Clint Boggis
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quote:
Originally posted by New Yorker:
Then these automated calls will stop. 5 today alone! Urr. Are they an American only phenomenon or are they used in other countries?

Those calls would really annoy me. I don't recall getting a political call in 20 years with my own landline living here in England. They can happen and one party's calls got into the news a couple of months ago.

Isn't there some way to opt out? I've been on a list to stop unsolicted calls for a couple of years now but I don't know if it stops politicians.

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Zwingli
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We don't really have them here; I can't imagine them encouraging anyone to vote for the party which used such a technique.

As a free market capitalist, I might just tolerate them, provided they were from an actual person and outsourced to some foreign country with low wages. Anything which raises demand for labour, and hence wages, in India can't be all bad, and discussing Australian politics with a foreigner would be more interesting than talking to some local party hack.

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tclune
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quote:
Originally posted by Clint Boggis:
Isn't there some way to opt out? I've been on a list to stop unsolicted calls for a couple of years now but I don't know if it stops politicians.

The do-not-call list does not apply to political speech. What a surprise that a law would exempt politicians. Anyway, both candidates promise that they will stop if you contact them. McCain includes a number to call in his phone messages, and Obama will stop if you contact him on his internet site. So, if you give them what they want, they'll stop hurting you...

--Tom Clune

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Twilight

Puddleglum's sister
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I expect the calls to double over the next four days for all those short term thinkers who go along with the last thing they heard.

I don't mind anymore, I'm just so excited!

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trouty
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Does anyone think McCain will make a comeback? How accurate are the polls and will they change?
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Laura
General nuisance
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Nope.

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Soror Magna
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quote:
Originally posted by Zwingli:
...As a free market capitalist, I might just tolerate them, provided they were from an actual person and outsourced to some foreign country with low wages. Anything which raises demand for labour, and hence wages, in India can't be all bad, and discussing Australian politics with a foreigner would be more interesting than talking to some local party hack.

There's no person on the other end of a robocall, Zwingli. The phone rings, you pick it up and say "hello", and a recorded message plays. You can listen or hang up. If there is a voice menu at the end of the call, you might get to talk to a real person about making a campaign contribution. And that's not likely to be someone in an overseas call centre. OliviaG
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FreeJack
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quote:
Originally posted by comet:

Stevens is hitting it hard for the first time in his career.

I thought his career was over?
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Barnabas62
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quote:
Originally posted by trouty:
Does anyone think McCain will make a comeback? How accurate are the polls and will they change?

Listen to the oddsmakers - para 3 in this link. Remember they are only in it for the money. As of yesterday, McCain was 6 to 1, Obama 9 to 1 on. Which kind of reflects the polls, particularly the state polls. I guess 6 to 1 is a price to attract loyalists. But I wouldn't if I were you. After looking at the state by state polls, I can't see how McCain can possibly win.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Pigwidgeon

Ship's Owl
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I have already voted. But that information does not seem to get to the various candidates and party offices in time to stop the calls. (That would be incredibly difficult to do.)

I have e-mailed some of the local people who have left robo-messages and usually get nice replies saying they'll remove me.

I block any number that shows on my Caller I.D.

But why do the candidates and the supporters (and opponents) of propositions think that harrassing people by phone will help their cause? Everyone I know hates getting these calls, especially the robocalls. I volunteered two years ago to help with a candidate's campaign and said I would do anything except make phone calls. But every time they asked for help, it was to make phone calls. I'm on the e-mail list for our Legislative District Democrats -- they are constantly asking for people to work the phone banks. ISTM they do more harm than good.

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"...that is generally a matter for Pigwidgeon, several other consenting adults, a bottle of cheap Gin and the odd giraffe."
~Tortuf

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comet

Snowball in Hell
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quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
quote:
Originally posted by comet:

Stevens is hitting it hard for the first time in his career.

I thought his career was over?
apparently they forgot to tell him that.

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Evil Dragon Lady, Breaker of Men's Constitutions

"It's hard to be religious when certain people are never incinerated by bolts of lightning.” -Calvin

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Mamacita

Lakefront liberal
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Now I'm really looking forward to working the phone banks at the local Dem HQ on Monday. I'll be working at the polls on Tuesday. (I voted earlier in the week and was the 5,361st person to vote at that particular polling place.)

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Do not be daunted by the enormity of the world’s grief. Do justly, now. Love mercy, now. Walk humbly, now. You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to abandon it.

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Zwingli
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quote:
Originally posted by OliviaG:
quote:
Originally posted by Zwingli:
...As a free market capitalist, I might just tolerate them, provided they were from an actual person and outsourced to some foreign country with low wages. Anything which raises demand for labour, and hence wages, in India can't be all bad, and discussing Australian politics with a foreigner would be more interesting than talking to some local party hack.

There's no person on the other end of a robocall, Zwingli.
I know, that's why I said provided they were from an actual person. I don't mind telesales calls too much, provided they are from foreigners who can barely speak English, at least they are more interesting than Australians. I had an Indian lady call on behalf of my bank once, when I was about three quarters drunk; we had a nice chat, during which she sold me insurance, after I had very carefully checked and confirmed that there was a cooling off period.
Posts: 4283 | Registered: Apr 2003  |  IP: Logged
RuthW

liberal "peace first" hankie squeezer
# 13

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quote:
Originally posted by Pigwidgeon:
But why do the candidates and the supporters (and opponents) of propositions think that harrassing people by phone will help their cause? Everyone I know hates getting these calls, especially the robocalls.

They do the robocalls because they're extremely cheap (though they don't work). They do the regular calls because they work.

I worked the phone bank for No on 8 (Prop 8 the proposition to ban on gay marriage in California), and I'd do it again in a heartbeat if necessary. When there are a whole bunch of propositions on the ballot, as there frequently are in California (not to mention all the local measures), it really helps to make phone calls and do some voter education. Add in the fact that this one is confusing -- if you're for gay marriage you vote no, not yes -- and phone calls become vital.

Next Tuesday I plan to spend most of the day standing 101 feet away from a polling place and working for No on 8.

Posts: 24453 | From: La La Land | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
Pigwidgeon

Ship's Owl
# 10192

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Around here #102 is the same as California's #8. The more signs I see promoting it, the more commercials, the more junk left on my doorknob, the more adamant I am against it (which I have been from the very beginning).

My assumption would be that the pro-102 crowd reacts the same the more anti-102 stuff they hear/see.

(However, I did have a personal conversation with an older woman at church and convinced her to vote No on 102 -- and she's telling her friends as well. One-on-one campaigning with friends and acquaintances is effective.)

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"...that is generally a matter for Pigwidgeon, several other consenting adults, a bottle of cheap Gin and the odd giraffe."
~Tortuf

Posts: 9835 | From: Hogwarts | Registered: Aug 2005  |  IP: Logged
ChastMastr
Shipmate
# 716

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We have a similar thing here in Florida, Proposition #2.

Maybe it's open season on gay people, or something. I thought it was just us here in Florida this year. [Waterworks]

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My essays on comics continuity: http://chastmastr.tumblr.com/tagged/continuity

Posts: 14068 | From: Clearwater, Florida | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged
Doublethink.
Ship's Foolwise Unperson
# 1984

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Hmm, robocalls, I think they may actually be illegal for elections over here. Maybe not though - I got one from my union about a strike ballot yesterday. However, we don't let the politicos play.

However, I do remember the fuss when our Prime Minister started personally calling voters.

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All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. George Orwell

Posts: 19219 | From: Erehwon | Registered: Aug 2005  |  IP: Logged
Kelly Alves

Bunny with an axe
# 2522

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quote:
Originally posted by RuthW:

Next Tuesday I plan to spend most of the day standing 101 feet away from a polling place and working for No on 8.

Brava, Ruth.
[Overused]

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I cannot expect people to believe “
Jesus loves me, this I know” of they don’t believe “Kelly loves me, this I know.”
Kelly Alves, somewhere around 2003.

Posts: 35076 | From: Pura Californiana | Registered: Mar 2002  |  IP: Logged
Zwingli
Shipmate
# 4438

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I'd love to get a personal call from our Prime Minister. There are some statements that he has made in the past that I would like to hear him attempt to justify, and a phone call would give me the opportunity to respond appropriately should he fail to do so.
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FreeJack
Shipmate
# 10612

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quote:
Originally posted by Pigwidgeon:
Around here #102 is the same as California's #8.

You have 102 things to vote on?

No wonder the voters are confused.

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mousethief

Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953

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G*d damned homophobes. Grrrr. [Mad]

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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...

Posts: 63536 | From: Washington | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged
Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468

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Good grief, I thought we had it bad here in SF. 12 state things, 22 city, plus assorted people to decide on. And some things are very, very tricky to figure out.

[Paranoid] [Votive]

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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")

Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001  |  IP: Logged
nickel
Shipmate
# 8363

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Am I the only one who doesn't mind robocalls? at least the four I've gotten recently were within decent early evening hours, and when I *click* they're gone. And the one from Joe Biden -- well, he has such a warm hearty greeting, I couldn't help but smile (really!)

What I'd like to know is this: if I let the call run its full course, am I costing that campaign any extra money?

Posts: 547 | From: Virginia USA | Registered: Aug 2004  |  IP: Logged
basso

Ship’s Crypt Keeper
# 4228

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quote:
Originally posted by FreeJack:
You have 102 things to vote on?

No wonder the voters are confused.

In California, they keep the sequence of propositions running so even if there's a handful of measures on the ballot, they might be numbered in the 200s.

I was looking forward to seeing which measure got assigned to Proposition 666, but they started again at 1 before that could happen.

Posts: 4358 | From: Bay Area, Calif | Registered: Mar 2003  |  IP: Logged



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