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Source: (consider it) Thread: Shake it all about: Brexit thread II
betjemaniac
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# 17618

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
quote:
Originally posted by betjemaniac:
quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Well that's a relief that he's only an MP then.

Even idiots deserve representation.
But, there's no reason they need to be represented by idiots.
Indeed. Although I suppose to be scrupulously fair he's long been a big supporter of armed forces mental health so he's not a complete waste of space.*

*by the same token of course, Robert Kilroy Silk was the MP who exempted war widows' pensions from income tax, and Portillo saved the Settle-Carlisle railway line, so I suppose it's difficult *not* to be able to say some good about most people.

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And is it true? For if it is....

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Eutychus
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The government has not carried out an impact assessment of leaving the EU on the UK economy, Brexit Secretary David Davis has told MPs.

Mind boggled.

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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Erroneous Monk
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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
The government has not carried out an impact assessment of leaving the EU on the UK economy, Brexit Secretary David Davis has told MPs.

Mind boggled.

Do they make fire extinguishers for pants?

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And I shot a man in Tesco, just to watch him die.

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Sioni Sais
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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
The government has not carried out an impact assessment of leaving the EU on the UK economy, Brexit Secretary David Davis has told MPs.

Mind boggled.

I can understand Cameron's government not doing an impact assessment as there was no possibility of a vote to leave, but given the leave vote I can only conclude that Mrs May's government doesn't after all intend to leave the EU.

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Eutychus
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Are you serious?

The referendum vote, let alone the formal implementation, is already having an economic impact.

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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fletcher christian

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Posted by Betjemaniac:
quote:

I also believe that the UK doesn't have the monopoly on such people.

I don't think anything I wrote suggested otherwise. We certainly did have a drunken buffoon in Cowan, but as far as I recall he never announced himself Prime Minister of Northern Ireland and I think he was still able to name the Prime Minister of Britain at the time. But this isn't the first idiotic statement by British politicians over the last year - not by a long shot. Not being capable of drawing the border on your own country and some not even realising that Ireland has been a separate, independent state since 1948 demonstrates spectacular idiocy on a scale even unparalleled in Ireland - which believe me, is really, really saying something.

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Staretz Silouan

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betjemaniac
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quote:
Originally posted by fletcher christian:
Posted by Betjemaniac:
quote:

I also believe that the UK doesn't have the monopoly on such people.

I don't think anything I wrote suggested otherwise. We certainly did have a drunken buffoon in Cowan, but as far as I recall he never announced himself Prime Minister of Northern Ireland and I think he was still able to name the Prime Minister of Britain at the time. But this isn't the first idiotic statement by British politicians over the last year - not by a long shot. Not being capable of drawing the border on your own country and some not even realising that Ireland has been a separate, independent state since 1948 demonstrates spectacular idiocy on a scale even unparalleled in Ireland - which believe me, is really, really saying something.
True, but then I'm not defending them either.

I do wonder though whether armed with google someone couldn't in a couple of hours draw up a bag of quotes by Irish TDs in the last 5 years across a range of subjects that wouldn't make "spectacular idiocy on a scale even unparalleled in Ireland" look a bit like hyperbole.

But then it isn't a competition - legislatures are full of odd people the world over.

[ 06. December 2017, 10:39: Message edited by: betjemaniac ]

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Kwesi
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betjemaniac
quote:
I've just read the take in the "i" which reckons that this might just be theatre - the DUP get to go back with whatever comes up next week saying it's better than it could have been.
I think this is to fatally misunderstand the character of Northern Irish unionism. It is based on the principle of “No Surrender” and its Calvinistic Presbyterianism which believes in dotting the ‘i’s and crossing the ’t’ s. Agreements, or rather Covenants, like the Ten Commandments, need to be set in stone and unambiguously clear. It is not characterised by the theological fudge and mudge of the English Anglicanism so dear to Mrs May’s heart. The Ulster Unionists lost out to the Democratic Unionists precisely because its leaders got far too friendly with South, in their protestant electorate’s eyes a sign of impending treachery and betrayal. The DUP are not in a position to be other than implacable regarding the current proposals because to do otherwise would mortally wound their unionist credentials. A border down the Irish Sea cannot be countenanced.
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fletcher christian

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I'm not sure I agree with that assessment overall, but even if taken at face value there is one important aspect that has gone unchallenged; mainly that a party which has effectively collapsed Stormont (over issues which would have brought them in line with the rest of the UK law and governance which the DUP oppose) and which only represents 36% of the people of Northern Ireland (from the last election figures in 2017) is now dictating exactly what will happen for all the people of Northern Ireland. This is not democracy.

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Staretz Silouan

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Kwesi
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Fletcher Christian, I'm not arguing rights and wrongs here but trying to identify the political facts of life.
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fletcher christian

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Well maybe, but surely the 'political facts' should also take account of such things, not least that in order to get that 36% the DUP essentially employed paramilitaries to do their thuggery, bullying and intimidation in order to achieve it. Regardless of right or wrong, that doesn't seem to me to have anything whatsoever in common with Presbyterianism or Calvin. To keep up the charade that the DUP are somehow a 'Christian' party and possibly Presbyterian in ethos (even though Snarlene is CofI....sadly) is to perpetuate the lie. The DUP use religion in a most insidious and evil manner and sadly the churches have been complicit in that lie and let them run with it to the point that they have been infected with the poison of sectarianism.

To me that is the political reality. Politicians and parties in NI have been allowed to operate in this unlawful and unregulated manner for far, far too long and now what i happening in Westminster is a single NI party getting drunk on power, feeling the euphoria of getting the position they have been given that they know they got through nefarious means and feeling quite legitimised in it. Quite apart from it being a bad day for democracy in general it is also a very bad day for NI. But Westminster seems to be is such a state of disarray that it probably doesn't even matter now.

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

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quetzalcoatl
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I see that Davis is now saying that there are no assessments of the economic impact of Brexit. The odd thing is that this doesn't arouse much excitement, when you would think that it would be scandalous.

I wonder if people are so demoralized by the Brexit saga, that nobody can be bothered. Well, there are protests in the Commons, but the govt can shrug them off really. Brexit seems to be sapping the body politic, or enervating it.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42249854

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Stejjie
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And now Phillip Hammond is saying that the cabinet hasn't decided what final outcome from Brexit it wants.

Wow. So we're almost halfway through the negotiating period and the government is negotiating (I use the term loosely) without any idea of what it wants at the end of it all.

[brick wall] [Help] [brick wall] [Help]

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Alan Cresswell

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The impact assessments will only exist once someone observes them. Thus Davis can say that they don't exist, while previously saying they do. Schrodingers Impact Assessments.

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All I want for Christmas is EU

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Jane R
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I think all of them know what they *want* - the problems are (a) they don't all want the same thing and (b) they can't agree on a course of action that is actually achievable.
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Eutychus
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Not only is the phrase "cliff-edge" springing to mind with increasing frequency, it's rushing closer and closer by the minute [Disappointed]

(Unless of course you think the DUP and the Tories have joined Trump in playing five-dimensional chess...)

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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quetzalcoatl
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The DUP fiasco has shown how the govt is trying to straddle a wide spectrum of opinion in the Tory part and allies. At one end, you have the hard Brexit crew, who presumably are happy with no-deal, long queues at Dover, and so on; then I suppose at the other end, soft Remainers, who would like to cancel Brexit, or go for the softest deal, keep membership of the single market, and so on.

No doubt there are those in the middle also, but the govt is struggling to find a solution which they will all sign up to. I think one point about 'regulatory alignment' is that it is multiply ambiguous, and can be sold to different groups, with different meanings. But it came unstuck with the DUP.

So I don't know if creative ambiguity can be applied again.

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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Stetson
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Why were the DUP against the Ulster deal? I thought the deal kept alive the open border, and that the DUP(along with almost everyone else in NI) wanted that?

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I have the power...Lucifer is lord!

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Sioni Sais
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quote:
Originally posted by Stetson:
Why were the DUP against the Ulster deal? I thought the deal kept alive the open border, and that the DUP(along with almost everyone else in NI) wanted that?

I reckon the DUP went into the deal with lots of ££££ signs in their eyes. To all intents and purposes they now have the cash (goodness knows where it has come from: some other disadvantaged part of the UK) and they can continue to turn the screw on the government, in the certain knowledge that their supporters think they are the bees knees.

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(Paul Sinha, BBC)

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quetzalcoatl
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Isn't it also a big fuck you to the republic?

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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Stetson
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But weren't they supporting an open-border for economic reasons? Has something about the cross-border trade situation changed since I read that last year sometime?

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I have the power...Lucifer is lord!

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Sioni Sais
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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Isn't it also a big fuck you to the republic?

That will go down well with their supporters too.
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Kwesi
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Stetson
quote:
Why were the DUP against the Ulster deal? I thought the deal kept alive the open border, and that the DUP(along with almost everyone else in NI) wanted that?

They don't like it because it detaches Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK and subjects it to the European Union with respect to its single market and customs union, while at the same time keeping it apart from a hard-brexited UK with a border dividing the Irish Sea. It starts a process of detaching Northern Ireland from the UK. What they would find less unacceptable would be for the whole of the UK to remain in the single market and customs union, which is not currently the policy of Mrs May's administration.
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Alan Cresswell

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# 31

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You make it sound as though there is some sort of policy of Mrs Mays administration. With an administration totally devoid of policy, everything is not currently the policy.

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All I want for Christmas is EU

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Dafyd
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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
You make it sound as though there is some sort of policy of Mrs Mays administration.

The policy of May's administration means the policy of May's administration.

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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chris stiles
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quote:
Originally posted by Kwesi:
They don't like it because it detaches Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK and subjects it to the European Union with respect to its single market and customs union

and that is a completely predictable result of the policy in the letter from Stormont that Foster signed:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DQZJtnYWkAAMc2k.jpg

quote:

while at the same time keeping it apart from a hard-brexited UK with a border dividing the Irish Sea.

and absent a soft Brexit, there is no way of squaring the letter Foster signed above with the Hard Brexit preferred by parts of her own party.
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fletcher christian

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There is a lot of talk about moving a border and perhaps it needs to be made absolutely clear that the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland is not on the move. This is not a united Ireland by stealth and in hope that the people of NI and the RofI are hopefully too stupid to notice it before it's too late. A sea 'border' in respect of trade was mooted in regards to trade. The necessary infrastructure and checks are all essentially there anyway, but it was an attempt at creating a solution to the issue of the Good Friday Agreement and trying to preserve that agreement - which the DUP signed up to. The border between the two countries remains as firm as ever. As far as we know, the agreement being thrashed out in the EU - if the leaks are to be believed - involved partial 'trading posts' at sea but the larger share of movement of goods and especially issues relating to farming practices and produce coming under what looked like it might be a trilateral arrangement at the border between the two countries. This was part of an attempt at keeping border posts and infrastructure at the countries border to a minimum; again, part of the Good Friday Agreement, especially considering that the border was a huge flashpoint issue in regards to the troubles.

NI could have had a 'special status' in a trilateral arrangement which would have hugely benefitted NI, but it looks like that is not to be. Such an arrangement would in no way cut them off from the rest of Britain, other than the geographical aspect of the sea. Nor would it have subjected NI to anything different than UK law. One would hope that regarding food standards for instance, the UK will uphold the same as the EU and not permit things like bleach washed chicken and chlorine injected pork - well, at least one can hope. But the DUP are skilled and trained masters at the scare tactics and will undoubtedly pedal the 'moving to the sea border' line for all its worth. It is however, a lie; a clever lie that plays on the use of a word.

Personally I feel depressed. I'm not sure what I am going to need in the future to visit my family or what they might need to visit me. One member of my family is one of those dirty foreigners Britain wants rid of, so they will likely go back to their country of origin. Already the nastiness of debate has become rancid and painful and they tell me there is a notable shift in society that leaves them feeling not just uneasy, but also unsafe. The whole idea that the Good Friday Agreement might fall apart and we see a return to the troubles of old and a hard border where there are murders of attrition...well words really can't express what I feel about that. I don't live in NI anymore. The ghosts of the dead crawl out of every street, house, pub and hotel when I go there to visit. I can't even contemplate adding to their number through this crass and careless stupidity. I want to be angry and sad and weeping all at once. It is dire beyond comprehension. I can't add anything more to this thread because I find it too upsetting so I'm afraid I must bow out at this point. Part of me lives in hope that there might be a solution. God alone knows I lived for twenty five years in hope before.

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'God is love insaturable, love impossible to describe'
Staretz Silouan

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Eirenist
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The whole affair is triple-decked nonsense. Northern Ireland has a different constitutional status from the rest of the UK, and this has been so since 1922.

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Alan Cresswell

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# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by Eirenist:
The whole affair is triple-decked nonsense. Northern Ireland has a different constitutional status from the rest of the UK, and this has been so since 1922.

But, they're talking about changing the constitutional status. And, Ulster Unionism has too strong a Presbyterian influence to countenance change.

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All I want for Christmas is EU

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quetzalcoatl
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Incredible really that Davis's various pronouncements on impact assessments and the like are described as 'bluffing'. In plain English, this is lying, but I suppose the days are long gone when this might be answerable, even in parliament. Brexit seems to have a degrading effect generally.

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the main fear that flat-earthers face is sphere itself.

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alienfromzog

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It is obscene that there is even a question: Davis has lied to Parliament, he should resign. It's as simple as that.

I am not holding my breath.

In the meantime the House of Lords Select Committee is doing there job properly:
quote:
House of Lords, European Union Committee: Brexit: Deal or No Deal:
The overwhelming view of witnesses was that ‘no deal’ would be deeply damaging for the UK. It would not just be economically disruptive, but would bring UK-EU cooperation on issues such as counter-terrorism, nuclear safeguards, data exchange and aviation to a sudden halt. It would necessitate the imposition of controls on the Irish land border, and would also leave open the critical question of citizens’ rights.

AFZ

For the record the affliations of the select committee are as follows:
Con 5
Lab 5
Lib Dem 3
Crossbench 6


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[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]

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Alan Cresswell

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# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
It is obscene that there is even a question: Davis has lied to Parliament, he should resign. It's as simple as that.

I am not holding my breath.

Especially as he's been touted as PM within weeks. Apparently the hard-line Brexitteers want someone who will drive the country over the cliff edge with confidence that someone who's blatantly lied to Parliament is acceptable. Though, only as a sacrificial lamb to be got rid of once the UK is out of the EU and before the next election.

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All I want for Christmas is EU

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Sioni Sais
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# 5713

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quote:
Originally posted by quetzalcoatl:
Incredible really that Davis's various pronouncements on impact assessments and the like are described as 'bluffing'. In plain English, this is lying, but I suppose the days are long gone when this might be answerable, even in parliament. Brexit seems to have a degrading effect generally.

If you bluff that badly at a card table you will lose so badly that no one will play with you again: always provided you ever have the funds to play again.

It almost makes me nostalgic for the Gulf War and that "sexed-up" dossier. At least there was a dossier.

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(Paul Sinha, BBC)

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Bishops Finger
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# 5430

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Not only do we (collective 'we') elect these morons, we also pay them lots of our hard-earned £££.

O for anarchy, but only under a wise and benevolent Anarch..

IJ

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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)

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Alan Cresswell

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# 31

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quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
If you bluff that badly at a card table you will lose so badly that no one will play with you again: always provided you ever have the funds to play again.

Oh, I'd have thought someone that inept, with funds, would be very welcome at a card table. What gambler wouldn't want easy money from some sucker?

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All I want for Christmas is EU

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Sioni Sais
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# 5713

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
If you bluff that badly at a card table you will lose so badly that no one will play with you again: always provided you ever have the funds to play again.

Oh, I'd have thought someone that inept, with funds, would be very welcome at a card table. What gambler wouldn't want easy money from some sucker?
There's bluffing, there's bluffing badly, then there's bluffing as badly as David Davis has done. You wouldn't play because a) you wouldn't believe how badly he was playing and b) the miniscule chance that he might, and probably without knowing it, actually win a hand.

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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"

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Posts: 24053 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Alan Cresswell

Mad Scientist 先生
# 31

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In any game of cards there's always the chance that a really bad player actually gets dealt an unbeatable hand. But, usually no one has such a hand and the game is to turn what you have to your advantage. A good player wins more than loses, and a single hand won by a bad player doesn't change that.

I can see how playing someone incredibly incompetent would lack the challenge of playing a good player. So, if you're there for the challenge, to improve your game by playing good opponents then you wouldn't want to play a bad player. If you're there for the money, then bring on the bad guy.

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All I want for Christmas is EU

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Eirenist
Shipmate
# 13343

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My apologies if I am not the first to have remarked on the fact, but this bunch of clowns must surely be the most incompetent government this country has had since the days of Ethelred the Unready.

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'I think I think, therefore I think I am'

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Dafyd
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# 5549

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quote:
Originally posted by Eirenist:
My apologies if I am not the first to have remarked on the fact, but this bunch of clowns must surely be the most incompetent government this country has had since the days of Ethelred the Unready.

None of them have had their heads chopped off, which puts them ahead of Charles I, and none of them have been killed by an intimate act using a red hot poker which puts them ahead of Edward II.

The present lot may be incapable of finding the place to put that poker with both hands, but any government would be struggling. Cameron's government actually went out of its way to steer up shit creek and throw away the paddles.

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we remain, thanks to original sin, much in love with talking about, rather than with, one another. Rowan Williams

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Bishops Finger
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# 5430

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As Founder (and sole) Member of the Aethelred the Unready Appreciation Society, may I point out that his late Majesty did indeed acquire his unfortunate soubriquet because of the incompetence of his advisers. Not much change from today, one feels.....

Aethelred 978-1013/1014-1016

He reigned for about 37 years, so he must have done a few things right....

IJ

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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)

Posts: 9447 | From: Behind The Wheel Again! | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Marvin the Martian

Interplanetary
# 4360

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quote:
Originally posted by Alan Cresswell:
In any game of cards there's always the chance that a really bad player actually gets dealt an unbeatable hand. But, usually no one has such a hand and the game is to turn what you have to your advantage. A good player wins more than loses, and a single hand won by a bad player doesn't change that.

The thing with playing against someone that bad is that you can never have any idea if they've got a good hand or not. That in turn reduces you to betting purely based on what's in your own hand, which removes most of the point of the game. You might as well just deal everyone a single card and say winner takes all.

I hate playing cards with people like that. It's so unsatisfying, even if you do win.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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Bishops Finger
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# 5430

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Perhaps this chap should be invited to join the Government.

He clearly has the type of skills required.

[Help]

IJ

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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)

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Leorning Cniht
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# 17564

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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:

I hate playing cards with people like that. It's so unsatisfying, even if you do win.

But, as Alan points out, it's also rather profitable.

I agree with you that there's no pleasure in playing with someone that bad, but if this is how you make a living, you can deal with a profitable but irritating session.

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Marvin the Martian

Interplanetary
# 4360

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quote:
Originally posted by Leorning Cniht:
quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:

I hate playing cards with people like that. It's so unsatisfying, even if you do win.

But, as Alan points out, it's also rather profitable.
Sometimes. But you never know what they've got, so you can never really go big unless you have an unbeatable hand yourself.

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Hail Gallaxhar

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alienfromzog

Ship's Alien
# 5327

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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
Sometimes. But you never know what they've got,
so you can never really go big unless you have an unbeatable hand yourself.

You have a point there, I once lost a hand of poker to my brother because he didn't know what he was doing.

I correctly surmised that he was bluffing; he was, because he believed he had nothing in his hand. Unfortunately for me, he hadn't appreciated that he had a straight.

[Killing me] [Waterworks]

Perhaps that is the position of HM Government... "We know we're bluffing but maybe we are so bad we actually have a really good hand...????"

If I can push the analogy a bit further; it's kinda like they're playing for a Royal Flush when the Queen of Hearts is already with another player (I'm thinking Stud Poker here) and the UK's position seems to be: "We know that the EU has a Full House, but if we get the Royal Flush, we win!!!!! What do you mean, it's impossible? Wrecker!! Traitor!! Remoaner!!"

[Roll Eyes]

Ok, I have retained my ability to take analogies to far...

AFZ

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[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]

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Leorning Cniht
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# 17564

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quote:
Originally posted by Marvin the Martian:
]Sometimes. But you never know what they've got, so you can never really go big unless you have an unbeatable hand yourself.

You'll lose sometimes playing against Mr. Random, because sometimes he gets lucky. But on a statistical basis you take his shirt.

Just don't go all-in on a coin flip.

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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

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So some sort of initial agreement has been reached.

On the Irish question, paragraphs 49 and 50 are the key ones.

The undertaking for there to be no hard border seems to require either

1) the EU and the UK achieving a much closer customs/trade deal than has been envisaged so far

or

2) some sort of ad hoc status for NI, possibly subject to approval by Stormont.

2) seems to open the way for NI, if it plays its cards right (and as I previously speculated), to have the best of both worlds by guaranteeing its businesses "unfettered access" to the rest of the UK market and alignment with at least some EU Single Market and Customs Union arrangements.

Thoughts, anyone?

Meanwhile I was watching Donald Tusk's press statement. One of his conditions for a 2-year transition period was that during that time the UK should continue to abide by all EU law, including any new laws. Could the hard-liners ever agree to that?

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330

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Of course, I don't know about the detail because I've not read it all - however, it sounds to me like the EU has backed down at the last minute.

Enough ambiguity seems to have been added to the section about NI that it appears to leave open the option of continuing with the current situation across the border - and by extension with the rest of the UK - even if a trade deal is not agreed.

In return it appears that the UK has backed down on the divorce payment, the rights of EU citizens and a limited role for the European courts in terms of advice with regard to the status of EU citizens in the UK in the future.

The problems seem to me to be quite significant. On the British side, I don't at the moment see how the government is going to sell this to the hardest Brexiteers. I can't see how in effect the UK wouldn't be continuing within the Common Market if the UK had to keep regulatory alignment as a price for an open Irish border. I can't see how they're going to accept whatever-divorce-payment-is-necessary or the role for the European court.

But I'm also struggling to see why some of the EU countries would accept this, or even what the point of a trade deal would be if everyone agrees that the Irish border is remaining open anyway.

I'm now wondering if it is just a holding pattern, with the UK just agreeing to something so that the conversation can move on to talking about trade.

It could even be a clever ploy by Mrs May - because there is now an incentive for the Tory Brexiteers to push for a deal, because the back-stop which has been agreed now looks a lot like continuing with the CM.

[ 08. December 2017, 07:22: Message edited by: mr cheesy ]

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arse

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mr cheesy
Shipmate
# 3330

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This from Leave.EU on twitter:

quote:
Complete Capitulation - UK-EU joint report: "In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain FULL ALIGNMENT with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation."
So... um..

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arse

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Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

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Nicola Sturgeon seems to agree it looks more like staying in the Single Market and Customs Union than anything that has emerged to date.

I notice some very careful wording in those two articles that seems to exclude the freedom of movement for workers.

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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