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Source: (consider it) Thread: Purgatory: U.S. Presidential Election 2016
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

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quote:
Originally posted by Lyda*Rose:
I seem to remember that when someone first tried to start this thread two years ago, a non-American host batted it down because it seemed waaaay too early to have a P.O.T.U.S. election thread. Oh, the poor innocent!

As far as I can make out, this one was started ten minutes after the polls closed in the 2014 mid-terms.

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

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Gramps49
Shipmate
# 16378

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All I can ask for at this point is pray for a peaceful transition after it is all over.
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110

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GK

Sure. I flipped through Limbo and found threads for 2008 and 2012, but not earlier. So my 'normally' was a sample of 2. I'm sure that exceptional circumstances would keep the thread alive, or generate an aftermath thread.

On a personal note, I'd like to see it as clear cut as Croesos predicts (even if it means Sam Wang avoids eating a bug and I get to re-read the Institutes). I think the US needs a clear cut, indisputable, result. And I would like all who are very nervous about this to be spared a marathon night.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468

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B--

Thanks. [Smile]

I'd like a clear-cut result, too. (If it's Hillary. [Biased] )

But it's very unlikely, for the reasons I mentioned. Plus, as the local news just pointed out, there are 3 "buckets" of votes to deal with:

--the early voting and the mail-in ballots, which theoretically should be counted by tomorrow night;

--on the day votes, which will take time to fully count;

--drop-off votes.

The reporter didn't mention votes from overseas US military personnel. IIRC, those sometimes take a while to come in, and then to be counted. I'm not sure about civilian ex-pats. They've probably voted by mail, too. (I understand the folks on the space station can vote from there! [Cool] )

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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")

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Jay-Emm
Shipmate
# 11411

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Good luck America. May the person who's best for you and the world win clearly. And may the next 4 years see improvements and peace.

And similar to Boogie's point, I think as a CSMWASP, (and with the events other here UK) fear is the opposite, I'm terrified of finding I'm the outlier for not (in my opinion) being trumpy.

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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110

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(538 tangent)

Croesos

I came across this just this morning. Thoughtful and thought-provoking. Particularly this comment.

quote:
What you get is a system which is hypersensitive, but can not undo a trend quickly.


[ 08. November 2016, 06:42: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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alienfromzog

Ship's Alien
# 5327

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Ok. So for what it's worth (i.e. not much) my final prediction* has Clinton at 340. This is based on the databases sites like 538 and an assessment of what the early voting data means relative to the polls.

Obviously I would take 272 at this point.

God Bless America

AFZ


*aka Wild-arse guess

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Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]

An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)

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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110

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AFZ

My half-assed guess this morning doesn't have an exact number in it. But I now agree with Croesos in forecasting that Clinton will win Florida, N Carolina and Nevada. I think there may be a surprise in the Northern states (possibly New Hampshire, or Pennsylvania, or both, going for Trump).

So I see Clinton winning with somewhere between 290 and 320 Electoral College Votes and about a 3.5% lead in the popular vote.

[ 08. November 2016, 08:25: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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alienfromzog

Ship's Alien
# 5327

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My map

I think this should work...

AFZ

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Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]

An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)

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simontoad
Ship's Amphibian
# 18096

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My prediction is that Alec Baldwin will be the first satirist to be locked up under a Trump Presidency. The first journalist will be Gail Collins. Samantha Bee will be deported to Canada.

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Human

Posts: 1571 | From: Romsey, Vic, AU | Registered: May 2014  |  IP: Logged
Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238

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quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
My map

I think this should work...

AFZ

Iowa and Arizona, eh? Bold choices, but not outside the realm of possibility.

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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alienfromzog

Ship's Alien
# 5327

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quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
quote:
Originally posted by alienfromzog:
My map

I think this should work...

AFZ

Iowa and Arizona, eh? Bold choices, but not outside the realm of possibility.
Yep. Arizona polls don't really support that but the early voting data pushes me that way.

AFZ

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Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
[Sen. D.P.Moynihan]

An Alien's View of Earth - my blog (or vanity exercise...)

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Alwyn
Shipmate
# 4380

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quote:
Originally posted by Jay-Emm:
Good luck America. May the person who's best for you and the world win clearly. And may the next 4 years see improvements and peace.

I agree! May the best candidate win, whoever she may be.

I read that, if the outcome is disputed in court and if the case reaches the Supreme Court, that court could be split 4:4. If I understand it correctly, the lower court decision would then stand - so the result would be up to the state supreme court(s). Is that right? Does that seem likely? Would that outcome concern people?

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Post hoc, ergo propter hoc

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Twilight

Puddleglum's sister
# 2832

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Got my sticker!

A friend of mine who works at the polls every year told me she had never encountered so many nasty, ignorant people as this year. Trump supporters coming in wearing T-shirts that say things like "lock up the bitch," unable to understand the simplest instructions, and angry at her because she has to explain it to them.

All this time I've been telling myself not to worry because I thought the idiocracy didn't vote.
[Frown]

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Photo Geek
Shipmate
# 9757

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The Washington Post has dropped their fire wall for two days.

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"Liberal Christian" is not an oxymoron.

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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238

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quote:
Originally posted by Twilight:
A friend of mine who works at the polls every year told me she had never encountered so many nasty, ignorant people as this year. Trump supporters coming in wearing T-shirts that say things like "lock up the bitch," unable to understand the simplest instructions, and angry at her because she has to explain it to them.

I suspect that they were just as nasty and ignorant in past years, it's just that this time around Trump has given them tacit permission to let their freak flags fly. Being nasty and ignorant (i.e. "politically incorrect") was actually a major plank of Trump's platform.

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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Nicolemr
Shipmate
# 28

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I voted!

Lines were long but not unmanageable. Kudos to the poll workers (my brother works the polls each election).

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On pilgrimage in the endless realms of Cyberia, currently traveling by ship. Now with live journal!

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Bishops Finger
Shipmate
# 5430

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When it's all over, and whoever wins, would you kind Americans please do as I suggested earlier, and send the wonderful Michelle Obama to the UK to be our new Prime Minister?

I'm sure she'd get on well with our dear Queen, and also with Scotland's feisty Nicola Sturgeon. As for Nigel Garbage et al , she'd have them all for a light snack before breakfast.

She'd be welcome to bring Barack along as well...

IJ

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Our words are giants when they do us an injury, and dwarfs when they do us a service. (Wilkie Collins)

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Lamb Chopped
Ship's kebab
# 5528

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No. Ours. Ours, ours, ours... [Razz]

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Er, this is what I've been up to (book).
Oh, that you would rend the heavens and come down!

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Jolly Jape
Shipmate
# 3296

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I suspect they want her Stateside for their 2020 election"😁

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To those who have never seen the flow and ebb of God's grace in their lives, it means nothing. To those who have seen it, even fleetingly, even only once - it is life itself. (Adeodatus)

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Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061

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Since you can briefly read the POST coverage without penalty, let me draw your attention to their Opinion page. All the columnists are on the right-hand rail. Jennifer Rubin is the flagship conservative opinionator, and she's been great this year -- have a look at her piece about Republicans giving it a rest, or GOP excuses. Alexandra Petri is wildly funny and well worth perusing -- her time-travel piece from yesterday is great.
Under the Politics tab, slide down until you get to The Fix, which is the snappy updates bit below the main stories. Endlessly amusing.

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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page

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Wesley J

Silly Shipmate
# 6075

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Some sources say that Trump's son, Eric, has voted, but that his vote has been annulled because he took a pic of the filled-in ballot and... tweeted it (which seems illegal in NY).

Any truth in this?

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Be it as it may: Wesley J will stay. --- Euthanasia, that sounds good. An alpine neutral neighbourhood. Then back to Britain, all dressed in wood. Things were gonna get worse. (John Cooper Clarke)

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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238

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quote:
Originally posted by Wesley J:
Some sources say that Trump's son, Eric, has voted, but that his vote has been annulled because he took a pic of the filled-in ballot and... tweeted it (which seems illegal in NY).

Any truth in this?

There are indeed laws against such things, mostly to prevent vote-buying. As long as no one is able to take some kind of permanent record or evidence of what they actually do in the voting booth with them when they leave the polling place no one will be willing to buy a vote that may not have happened.

I know nothing about the specifics of Eric Trump, but it seems like the kind of thing that he'd do.

[ 08. November 2016, 15:33: Message edited by: Crœsos ]

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

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Nick Tamen

Ship's Wayfaring Fool
# 15164

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quote:
Originally posted by Wesley J:
Some sources say that Trump's son, Eric, has voted, but that his vote has been annulled because he took a pic of the filled-in ballot and... tweeted it (which seems illegal in NY).

Any truth in this?

He did tweet a picture of his filled-in ballot, which appears to be a misdemeanor in NY. (The tweet has since been removed, but you can see it here.) I don't see anything about his vote being annulled, nor do I think that's a penalty for violating the law in question.

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The first thing God says to Moses is, "Take off your shoes." We are on holy ground. Hard to believe, but the truest thing I know. — Anne Lamott

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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110

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quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
Since you can briefly read the POST coverage without penalty, let me draw your attention to their Opinion page. All the columnists are on the right-hand rail. Jennifer Rubin is the flagship conservative opinionator, and she's been great this year -- have a look at her piece about Republicans giving it a rest, or GOP excuses. Alexandra Petri is wildly funny and well worth perusing -- her time-travel piece from yesterday is great.
Under the Politics tab, slide down until you get to The Fix, which is the snappy updates bit below the main stories. Endlessly amusing.

Jennifer Rubin was excellent. She aimed high, when far too many of the rest have been aiming low. Good for her.

I liked Greg Sargent's article. When the demographics of this come out, it would be a proper comeuppance if Trump's negative rhetoric designed to maximise support from male white voters had instead galvanised Latinos and women voters to turn out in very high numbers.

We'll see. From the POV of a UK citizen, I don't see this being called by the news media until after the California polls have closed (which I think is something like 5am GMT). So tonight, I'm going to turn in and see where things are at around 6.30 am GMT. Hope it is more or less settled by then.

My very best wishes to all US Shipmates. I hope you are able to avoid exhaustion and anxieties get assuaged early, rather than late.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

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Twilight

Puddleglum's sister
# 2832

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Heh. Trump's campaign manager made a point of keeping him off twitter for the last few hours but failed to include the entire family. Poor Eric. He probably expected one of the servants to vote for him, then he had to get dressed in the middle of the day and do it himself, and now this had to happen.
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Callan
Shipmate
# 525

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quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
quote:
Originally posted by Twilight:
A friend of mine who works at the polls every year told me she had never encountered so many nasty, ignorant people as this year. Trump supporters coming in wearing T-shirts that say things like "lock up the bitch," unable to understand the simplest instructions, and angry at her because she has to explain it to them.

I suspect that they were just as nasty and ignorant in past years, it's just that this time around Trump has given them tacit permission to let their freak flags fly. Being nasty and ignorant (i.e. "politically incorrect") was actually a major plank of Trump's platform.
Let's hope it wasn't because, not having voted for years and years, they are not familiar with the current procedures.

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How easy it would be to live in England, if only one did not love her. - G.K. Chesterton

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Stetson
Shipmate
# 9597

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Croesos wrote:

quote:
There's a little drama at present with two Democratic electors from Washington state saying that they'll ignore the will of the voters in that state.
Robert Satiacum says he hopes it comes down to one vote and he can vote against Hillary because "it'll wake this country up".

Yeah. Wake them up to how much they hate Robert Satiacum and every cause he purports to represent.

[ 08. November 2016, 17:33: Message edited by: Stetson ]

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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110

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I did like this, from the Miami Herald. Succinct. (You might have to copy the image to get full value ..)

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061

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Forgiveness, OK. But let's never forget. To this I would add a resolution: to never hand Trump a dime of my money, from now until they shovel me under. Nor will I ever stay in a Scion property, the hotels named after the odious sons.

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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page

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Wesley J

Silly Shipmate
# 6075

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You're clearly not a Scionist then.

In other news: Trump campaign have filed a law suit about late early voting in Nevada. Nevada says the did what they always do - let everyone up to the last in queue vote who's arrived before official closure time.

Question: Is this a 'common sense' lawsuit, and just what's being done in such a situation, or another sign of Trumpian exaggeration?

I also see that, on the other hand, some Democrats have denounced The Son of Trump to the authorities about his ballot tweet...

(All news taken from The Guardian.)

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Be it as it may: Wesley J will stay. --- Euthanasia, that sounds good. An alpine neutral neighbourhood. Then back to Britain, all dressed in wood. Things were gonna get worse. (John Cooper Clarke)

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Og, King of Bashan

Ship's giant Amorite
# 9562

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A number of media organizations are having their staff reveal who they are voting for, in the name of transparency.

The first I was aware of was my favorite sports and news blog, Deadspin. It is not only the most self-indulgent exercise in blogging I have ever seen (and that's saying a lot), (lots of NSFW language beyond that link, BTW,) but also illustrative of a trend I have noticed in the last few days. The male writers tend to be far more likely to describe the election as a lesser of two evils choice, many going as far as to say that they will not vote in their very blue states because their vote will not count. The female writers are all voting for Clinton, and see no reason to equivocate or apologize.

Jezebel, a feminist website from the same media group, noticed the same split, and posted their own list of votes, in a fairly amusing retort.

I voted weeks ago, but went down to the polling place to watch my wife and two year old daughter put her ballot in the ballot box together. It was a historic and stirring moment. I didn't vote to make history in 2008, but I'm doing my part in 2016, and frankly, it feels pretty cool.

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"I like to eat crawfish and drink beer. That's despair?" ― Walker Percy

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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238

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quote:
Originally posted by Wesley J:
In other news: Trump campaign have filed a law suit about late early voting in Nevada. Nevada says the did what they always do - let everyone up to the last in queue vote who's arrived before official closure time.

Question: Is this a 'common sense' lawsuit, and just what's being done in such a situation, or another sign of Trumpian exaggeration?

It all depends. From Reuters:

quote:
Nevada state law says voters who are in line at 8 p.m., when the polls close, must be allowed to cast their ballots.

Trump's lawsuit, filed in a Nevada state court on Monday, said election officials violated state law because they allowed people to join the line after 8 p.m. at a polling location at a Latino market.

If the Trump campaign has evidence that voters were allowed to join the line after 8:00 p.m. and then cast ballots, they have a legitimate case. On the other hand, this could just be laying the groundwork for claims of "it was rigged and I was cheated!" Given the Trump campaign's record of not being able to back up its assertions with any kind of evidence I lean towards the latter explanation, but I guess we'll see.

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Wesley J

Silly Shipmate
# 6075

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Thanks, Croesus.

Again, pic by a Guardian photographer of a protest across the street from TFO Tower:
quote:
“He’s not fit to be mayor even of a small village,” [Sajid] Khan, 67, said of Trump. “And he’s thinking of leading the country.”
I like the bible quotes... which for once are not in favour of the TFO!

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Be it as it may: Wesley J will stay. --- Euthanasia, that sounds good. An alpine neutral neighbourhood. Then back to Britain, all dressed in wood. Things were gonna get worse. (John Cooper Clarke)

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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238

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Via CNN:

quote:
Dan Kulin, a spokesperson for [Clark] county[, Nevada], told CNN that no early voting stations extended their closing times. They did, however, process voters who were in line at closing time to allow as many people to vote as possible.
So the county officially denies Trump's allegations, which could be either the truth or ass-covering (or both).

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Wesley J

Silly Shipmate
# 6075

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Reuters: Nevada judge appears to have dismissed the law suit.

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Be it as it may: Wesley J will stay. --- Euthanasia, that sounds good. An alpine neutral neighbourhood. Then back to Britain, all dressed in wood. Things were gonna get worse. (John Cooper Clarke)

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Nicolemr
Shipmate
# 28

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Why is it that the only people who bring up the election in conversation here at work are smarmy Trump voters? I almost blew my cool again with a patron. Didn't this time thankfully. [Mad]

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On pilgrimage in the endless realms of Cyberia, currently traveling by ship. Now with live journal!

Posts: 11803 | From: New York City "The City Carries On" | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238

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The larger picture here is that the Trump campaign is acting as if it believes that Nevada will be close enough that a few ballots from one precinct will be enough to tip the balance in the state. A couple of possible interpretations:

  1. Trump (or his campaign staff) really believes this
  2. This is the opening salvo in the "I wuz robbed!" narrative
  3. The Trump campaign is trying to unload its as-yet unspent campaign contributions into legal fees paid to Trump loyalists

Again, those are all highly speculative and none are mutually exclusive.

And Wesley J, would it kill you to include a hyperlink to stories you're citing?

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Humani nil a me alienum puto

Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Gwai
Shipmate
# 11076

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Just found the link to send to my husband, so I'll post it here too: http://www.rgj.com/story/news/politics/2016/11/08/trump-files-nevada-lawsuit-over-early-voting/93484116/

I would like to think the lawsuit is becuase Trump's ground game sucks, and I gather it may. But I think the suit was to support him yelling I WAS ROBBED. ROBBED I TELL YOU! when he loses.

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A master of men was the Goodly Fere,
A mate of the wind and sea.
If they think they ha’ slain our Goodly Fere
They are fools eternally.


Posts: 11914 | From: Chicago | Registered: Feb 2006  |  IP: Logged
Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061

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John Scalzi does the get-out-the-vote literary bit better than I did, for the LA Times. No, you do not want to live in a dystopia, you really don't.

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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page

Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014  |  IP: Logged
Pigwidgeon

Ship's Owl
# 10192

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This is probably the most divisive presidential election in U.S. history, or at least recent history. But this video shows people from both sides can agree on some things.
[Smile]

(Boogie, you have to see this.)

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"...that is generally a matter for Pigwidgeon, several other consenting adults, a bottle of cheap Gin and the odd giraffe."
~Tortuf

Posts: 9835 | From: Hogwarts | Registered: Aug 2005  |  IP: Logged
Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110

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Brenda

I suppose one of the issues will be this one. Just how much of a dystopia do the disaffected believe they already live in?

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

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quote:
Originally posted by Pigwidgeon:
(Boogie, you have to see this.)

I have to admit I already saw that and thought of her.

Boogie for write-in candidate [Big Grin]

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110

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quote:
Originally posted by Pigwidgeon:
This is probably the most divisive presidential election in U.S. history, or at least recent history. But this video shows people from both sides can agree on some things.
[Smile]

(Boogie, you have to see this.)

That's brilliant! I agree that Boogie MUST see it.

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110

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See! It even makes Hosts agree [Biased]

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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?

Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
Eutychus
From the edge
# 3081

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France Info's Washington stock market correspondent just reported a slight increase on the Dow Jones due to exit polls "not being reported on by the media so as not to influence the election" reporting a lead for Clinton in Florida.

I don't understand this media reporting of information not reported in the media, but I'll be content to go to sleep on that basis.

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Let's remember that we are to build the Kingdom of God, not drive people away - pastor Frank Pomeroy

Posts: 17944 | From: 528491 | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
Firenze

Ordinary decent pagan
# 619

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quote:
Originally posted by Eutychus:
France Info's Washington stock market correspondent just reported a slight increase on the Dow Jones due to exit polls "not being reported on by the media so as not to influence the election" reporting a lead for Clinton in Florida.

I don't understand this media reporting of information not reported in the media, but I'll be content to go to sleep on that basis.

The likes of this probably. I don't know where turnout tracking stands in terms of dependibility.

[ 08. November 2016, 20:37: Message edited by: Firenze ]

Posts: 17302 | From: Edinburgh | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
Gramps49
Shipmate
# 16378

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I have heard of the slight increase in the stock market shortly after it closed on NPR. It appears the stock market is confident Clinton will win. The market likes consistency which Clinton offers.
Posts: 2193 | From: Pullman WA | Registered: Apr 2011  |  IP: Logged
Og, King of Bashan

Ship's giant Amorite
# 9562

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Just in time for results watching, Trump got his twitter back!

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"I like to eat crawfish and drink beer. That's despair?" ― Walker Percy

Posts: 3259 | From: Denver, Colorado, USA | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
Boogie

Boogie on down!
# 13538

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quote:
Originally posted by Pigwidgeon:
This is probably the most divisive presidential election in U.S. history, or at least recent history. But this video shows people from both sides can agree on some things.
[Smile]

(Boogie, you have to see this.)

Fabulous!

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Garden. Room. Walk

Posts: 13030 | From: Boogie Wonderland | Registered: Mar 2008  |  IP: Logged



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