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Source: (consider it)
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Thread: Purgatory: U.S. Presidential Election 2016
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simontoad
Ship's Amphibian
# 18096
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Posted
amen
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Human
Posts: 1571 | From: Romsey, Vic, AU | Registered: May 2014
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Stercus Tauri
Shipmate
# 16668
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Posted
For news addicts (I confess...) the New York Times is dropping its paywall from 7th-9th November.
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Thay haif said. Quhat say thay, Lat thame say (George Keith, 5th Earl Marischal)
Posts: 905 | From: On the traditional lands of the Six Nations. | Registered: Sep 2011
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Gramps49
Shipmate
# 16378
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Posted
This afternoon FBI director Corney sent a follow up letter saying the newly discovered emails have been reviewed. Most of them were duplicates of what they had already examined; and, therefore, the investigation will not proceed further.
There has been some reports that there are a number of rogue FBI agents in the New York City office that have been feeding Brietbart intelligence about the new emails so Corney felt he had to send out the first letter about the emails found on Wiener's computer.
Trump is not happy about the new report. He is complaining once again how everything was rigged.
Two more days and it will be over
It looks 538 says Hillary will have a 64.9% chance of winning
I think Nevada is going to remain in the Blue camp because of a last minute surge in Hispanic early voting. If this is true, there is virtually no path to a Trump triumph.
Posts: 2193 | From: Pullman WA | Registered: Apr 2011
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W Hyatt
Shipmate
# 14250
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Posted
I thought this offers an interesting view that very few people are changing their minds and that short-term swings in poll results are mostly due to "differential nonresponse." It's by a professor of statistics and political science and director of the Applied Statistics Center at Columbia University.
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A new church and a new earth, with Spiritual Insights for Everyday Life.
Posts: 1565 | From: U.S.A. | Registered: Nov 2008
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Belle Ringer
Shipmate
# 13379
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Posted
I looked at the map again, remembered where its bright red or blue a vote wont count, and turned my attention to down party votes.
Posts: 5830 | From: Texas | Registered: Jan 2008
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Carex
Shipmate
# 9643
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Posted
For those who are interested, here are more details on how the Oregon Vote-By-Mail system works. The local newspaper carried a description in response to worries about tampering.
First, the system is really "distribution of ballots by mail to every registered voter". There are several ways to return them. Each return envelope has a barcode, name and address indentifying the voter, and must be signed before it is returned. Ballots are marked by filling in a circle with a pen or pencil. When the ballots are returned, but before they are opened, the signature is checked against the one on the voter record card. If they don't match, the voter is notified to come in and resign the ballot and/or sign a new voter card. Because ballots may be returned a week or two before the election, this gives time for such issues to be resolved.
The only time it is permissible for the signature not to match the one on record is when a married couple living at the same address accidentally sign each other's envelopes. (I guess it happens often enough to make an exception for it.) I that case, both ballots are accepted.
Ballots can be returned by mail, or placed in drop boxes in most communities around the county. Every day, two uniformed Elections staff empty each box and stop by the Post Office to collect the ballots. They are then fed into a machine that takes a photo of hte ballot envelope, including the voter information. This allows me to check that my ballot has been received. The ballots are sorted into stacks of 400 - 500 each, and those for other jurisdictions, etc. are identified so they can be sent to the proper County. (Elections are run by the Clerk in each County, not by the State. Our county will process oer 300,000 ballots.) Each signature is checked against the corresponding voter record.
Starting a few days before the election, the staff start counting the ballots in each stack. The outer envelopes (with the voter information) are opened and the ballots are placed face down on the table by a team of 3 clerks in front of any monitors appointed by the political parties. The ballots are then run though the counting machine and the results stored by stack on a computer that is not connected to any outside network. The ballots are then bundled and saved: at various points along the way, any stack can be hand-counted to verify the results. Problem ballots (about 0.5%) are reviewed manually by a team of 2, with observers. The common problems are torn ballots, coffee stains, or voters who change their mind.
At 7pm on Election Night they start adding together the totals from all the stacks and generating the results. In the first hour they typically can count all the ballots received more than 3 or 4 days before the election (often about 35% of the total.) At 8pm when the polls close the first results are posted online, with hourly updates until midnight, and less frequent ones until the process is complete, often around 6 AM. Most of the workers involved stick around to see it through to the end rather than going home early to sleep. There may be some further issues to resolve: signatures that don't match, ballots for other counties that need to be transfered, etc.
Before the results are official, however, there are various auditing checks, including hand-counting some stacks of ballots to confirm the accuracy of the counting machine. The envelopes and ballots are kept as a physical record of the election in case there are later questions.
So while it isn't impossible that an occasional person forges a signature of someone they know well enough, any addition or removal of ballots would likely be caught by the careful recordkeeping of how many ballots are in each stack, and all handling of ballots are done by teams (with party observers). In one recent case, an employee in another county was caught absconding with marked ballots by others in the room.
Because Oregon has some elections that require a majority turnout for the result to be accepted, the voter rolls are carefully scoured to keep them up to date. One oversight group came up with a list of 10 voters in the State who were in a database of dead people, and who had cast ballots in the last election. The State investigated, and discovered that 8 of them were actually still alive and properly registered. Of the other two, one vote had been disqualified because the signature didn't match, and the last one was referred for prosecution.
It's a pretty robust system, even if it isn't perfect. The actual rate of vote fraud has been very low: I can't find the current numbers, but the last time I looked there had been something like 13 cases identified - less than 1 per year since the change to the new system.
Posts: 1425 | Registered: Jun 2005
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Anglican_Brat
Shipmate
# 12349
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Posted
Are we entertaining predictions yet?
CBC News (Canadian) has an interactive electoral map, so you can figure out your predictions for who will win on Tuesday: http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/uspolltracker/
If I can go out on a limb humbly:
I think Clinton and Trump will split the swing states, this will result in a Clinton win (Using the interactive electoral map, I came up with Clinton with 299 and Trump with 239 votes).
Basically I think Clinton wins Florida, North Carolina and Nevada. Trump wins Ohio and Pennsylvania.
And I think once Florida and North Carolina are called for Clinton, there will be an early projection of her winning the presidency. It won't be a long night of waiting.
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It's Reformation Day! Do your part to promote Christian unity and brotherly love and hug a schismatic.
Posts: 4332 | From: Vancouver | Registered: Feb 2007
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Kelly Alves
Bunny with an axe
# 2522
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Posted
Please God let it not be a long night of waiting.
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I cannot expect people to believe “
Jesus loves me, this I know” of they don’t believe “Kelly loves me, this I know.”
Kelly Alves, somewhere around 2003.
Posts: 35076 | From: Pura Californiana | Registered: Mar 2002
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
Florida will tell us a lot on Election Night. It nearly always does. If Florida goes for Clinton, then N Carolina may follow suit and so, later, will Nevada.
There is a risk of one or two of the 'rust' states going for Trump and if that happens, Kelly's nerves might have to stand it for a while longer.
I'm not forecasting further than a close contest with the winner getting less than 300 EC votes. I hope it is Hillary Clinton. Trump's crappy candidacy now has a cherry on the top. The election is rigged again and the FBI Director is no longer a hero, but a part of the rigging. I don't know why anyone should really want to listen to his bullshit, if they have any respect for truth. But some 45% of the voting US electorate seem inclined still to do so.
That's an awful lot of angry, disaffected, or simply deluded, people.
[ 07. November 2016, 04:51: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
Fun and levity:
Over the weekend, SNL had its last pre-election skit of Donald and Hillary--and it was wonderful.(PopSugar) Some amazing, special moments.
NOTE: I don't remember anything as being NSFW, but proceed carefully.
H/As:The clip is about 10 minutes. But in my browser, it doesn't start automatically. I hope that means H/As won't have to take the time to view it.
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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Stercus Tauri
Shipmate
# 16668
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Posted
Trump's staff have cut off his Twitter access. He has twat his last tweet.
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Thay haif said. Quhat say thay, Lat thame say (George Keith, 5th Earl Marischal)
Posts: 905 | From: On the traditional lands of the Six Nations. | Registered: Sep 2011
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
But some 45% of the voting US electorate seem inclined still to do so.
That's an awful lot of angry, disaffected, or simply deluded, people.
Or that most people still have a lot of team loyalty and vote on the party ticket, and the difference this year was in terms of the interest group that was able to push their candidate to the top.
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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Sioni Sais
Shipmate
# 5713
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by chris stiles:
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
But some 45% of the voting US electorate seem inclined still to do so.
That's an awful lot of angry, disaffected, or simply deluded, people.
Or that most people still have a lot of team loyalty and vote on the party ticket, and the difference this year was in terms of the interest group that was able to push their candidate to the top.
The referendum in Britain on the 23rd June showed the power of the angry and disaffected. Trump has played on that so, in addition to regular Republicans and the ABC (anyone but Clinton) vote, Trump should have walked it.
It doesn't look from here like he's storming to victory, so if he loses, I think it will be a combination of a high turn out, including more women, Blacks, Hispanics and young people than has been the case, which benefits Clinton and regular Republicans staying at home or even voting against Trump.
Better not count our chickens yet: some of them could be cocks.
[ 07. November 2016, 12:41: Message edited by: Sioni Sais ]
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"He isn't Doctor Who, he's The Doctor"
(Paul Sinha, BBC)
Posts: 24276 | From: Newport, Wales | Registered: Apr 2004
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chris stiles
Shipmate
# 12641
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
The referendum in Britain on the 23rd June showed the power of the angry and disaffected. Trump has played on that so, in addition to regular Republicans and the ABC (anyone but Clinton) vote, Trump should have walked it.
The point I was making was that in general people are voting along party lines - an answer to Barnabas' implicit question of where that 45% was coming from. With a fairly small minority of Republicans voting Democrat on an 'anyone but Trump' ticket, and a slightly larger minority of Democrats voting for Trump on a protectionist ticket.
So I don't think that there are any indications so far that we are in the same situation as the UK referendum (where 30% of Labour and SNP voters voted to 'on the side' of Leave).
[ 07. November 2016, 13:15: Message edited by: chris stiles ]
Posts: 4035 | From: Berkshire | Registered: May 2007
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Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061
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Posted
They say that a day is a lifetime, in politics. There's still 24 hours for the Tiny Fingered One to say something egregious. I have faith in the Donald.
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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page
Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
We're already seeing stories about long polling lines in early voting. These are often pitched as Americans' enthusiasm for electoral democracy, but they're also signs of either a colossal screw-up or deliberately suppressing votes.
quote:
Many people interpreted the lines as a sign of voter enthusiasm and approvingly commented on voters’ determination to wait them out. But long voting lines shouldn’t be a source of inspiration. They’re a foreseeable, avoidable problem — the result of poor foresight, misallocated resources, or deliberate neglect — that threaten Americans’ ability to vote.
Not everyone can afford to take five hours out of a workday to vote, or leave their children unattended for that length of time.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061
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Posted
Long lines like this are almost always in poor areas. Where, of course, there are many Democrats.
Since the New York Times is free for these couple of days, I urge people to go and peruse their superb reportage. Here's a good one to start you off. This is not a man I even want to see behind the wheel of a riding lawnmower, never mind the ship of state.
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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page
Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014
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cliffdweller
Shipmate
# 13338
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Stercus Tauri:
Trump's staff have cut off his Twitter access. He has twat his last tweet.
Yes. The guy who can't be trusted to keep a cool head on social media is frighteningly close to having the nuclear codes
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"Here is the world. Beautiful and terrible things will happen. Don't be afraid." -Frederick Buechner
Posts: 11242 | From: a small canyon overlooking the city | Registered: Jan 2008
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Teekeey Misha
Shipmate
# 18604
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
The referendum in Britain on the 23rd June showed the power of the angry and disaffected.
That's a meme beloved of commentators I know, but I'm not sure there's any real evidence that it's true. One might just as easily argue that the referendum showed the power of the press, the power of the dishonest, the power of the ill-informed, or the power of the unintelligent. Doubtless if Trump wins, the commentators will argue that it was "another" vote showing "the power of the angry and disaffected" and it still won't necessarily be true.
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Misha
Don't assume I don't care; sometimes I just can't be bothered to put you right.
Posts: 296 | From: UK | Registered: Jun 2016
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Pigwidgeon
Ship's Owl
# 10192
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Posted
A strong earthquake hit Oklahoma last night, causing lots of damage and the evacuation of many buildings, including schools (which are often polling places). My first thought when I read about this (well, second thought, after gratitude that there were no deaths or injuries) was that Obama will probably get blamed. Oklahoma is a very red state, and voting might be disrupted. Since everything that has gone wrong these past eight years is Obama's fault, I'm sure he's found a way to cause earthquakes.
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"...that is generally a matter for Pigwidgeon, several other consenting adults, a bottle of cheap Gin and the odd giraffe."
~Tortuf
Posts: 9835 | From: Hogwarts | Registered: Aug 2005
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Boogie
Boogie on down!
# 13538
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Posted
I feel this way too.
I'm not American, but - as a woman - the misogyny in the Trump campaign and the man himself hurts me at a visceral level. Seeing those huge crowds cry for him is painful.
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Garden. Room. Walk
Posts: 13030 | From: Boogie Wonderland | Registered: Mar 2008
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Gramps49
Shipmate
# 16378
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Posted
Regards, the Oklahoma earthquakes. They are the result of fracking injection wells. Oklahoma has had increasing earthquake swarms because of increased fracking.
Posts: 2193 | From: Pullman WA | Registered: Apr 2011
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
Boogie
Me too.
On a different topic.
Nate Silver showed a thin skin over some Huffpost criticisms of the 538 model. A loud Twittering was heard.
The Huffpost article was pretty unfair; the assumption being that if 538 predictions were an outlier there must be something wrong going on. In fact the RCP aggregate poll has been showing a lower Clinton lead in the popular vote and a greater degree of uncertainty in its electoral map. Quite strange that it did not get a mention, since if 538 is an outlier about the degree of uncertainty in the result, RCP is probably a bigger outlier.
(As at 17.45 GMT on Monday 7th, RCP shows Clinton with a 2.6% popular vote lead and 171 toss-up EC votes - states where the candidate's majority is less than 5%. 538 is showing Clinton with a 3.3% popular vote lead and is close to 70% probable to win the whole thing. If you take the toss-up factor out of the RCP electoral map i.e call for the candidate who has the lead, no matter how small, RCP gives Clinton 301 EC votes, 538 is forecasting Clinton with 297. So they aren't that far apart. Other forecasters make it more comfortable for Clinton. We'll see).
[ 07. November 2016, 16:54: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Stetson
Shipmate
# 9597
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Teekeey Misha:
quote:
Originally posted by Sioni Sais:
The referendum in Britain on the 23rd June showed the power of the angry and disaffected.
That's a meme beloved of commentators I know, but I'm not sure there's any real evidence that it's true. One might just as easily argue that the referendum showed the power of the press, the power of the dishonest, the power of the ill-informed, or the power of the unintelligent. Doubtless if Trump wins, the commentators will argue that it was "another" vote showing "the power of the angry and disaffected" and it still won't necessarily be true.
I wonder how much you can compare a referendum, especially THAT referendum, with a presidential election. Especially THIS presidential election.
One of the possible factors cited in the Brexit surprise was that some pro-Remain people might have stayed home, or even voted Leave, on the assumption that their side was going to win anyway, so they had the luxury of not voting, or sticking it to the posh establishment with a protest vote.
I don't think there are too many Democrats this time around saying "Ah, Clinton's gonna win anyway, I might as well just follow my heart and not worry about rewarding her with a vote that I'm not really enthusiastic about casting to begin with".
Or, at least, not many of those types will be casting a ballot for Mr. Trump. It might be a factor in convinving some people to either stay with or move to Jill Stein. But even then, I don't think the narrative of a Democratic Romp has taken hold to such an extent that the waverers could get overly confident about her chances.
(Though I suppose posts like this one do contribute to such a narrative, thus possibly making it more likely that Democrats will do something other than vote for Clinton. There's a game-theory Master's Thesis in there somewhare.)
[ 07. November 2016, 17:08: Message edited by: Stetson ]
Posts: 6574 | From: back and forth between bible belts | Registered: Jun 2005
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quetzalcoatl
Shipmate
# 16740
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Posted
Friends are making my ears hurt by shouting that there is a bump for Clinton, but I can't see it in the polls. Is there any evidence for this, or are they hitting the apricot cocktails a bit early?
Oh, I see 538 has her at nearly 70% odds now, I guess that's it. Time for a drink.
[ 07. November 2016, 17:19: Message edited by: quetzalcoatl ]
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I can't talk to you today; I talked to two people yesterday.
Posts: 9878 | From: UK | Registered: Oct 2011
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
The Huffpost article was pretty unfair; the assumption being that if 538 predictions were an outlier there must be something wrong going on. In fact the RCP aggregate poll has been showing a lower Clinton lead in the popular vote and a greater degree of uncertainty in its electoral map. Quite strange that it did not get a mention, since if 538 is an outlier about the degree of uncertainty in the result, RCP is probably a bigger outlier.
There are two reasons for this. The first is that RealClearPolitics poll aggregator, not an analyzing predictor like 538. The other is that RCP has a pretty well known Republican 'lean':
quote:
RealClearPolitics (RCP) is a GOP-leaning polling average: RCP accepts polls that are obviously GOP-leaning. They include polls from GOP organizations that admit their bias and others that show it. These include polls that are landline only (conditional on demographics, voters on landlines are more Republican). And, while RCP just takes a simple average, they pick the cut-off to optimize for the GOP. For example, right now they have Colorado at +2.9 for Clinton and include seven polls. The most recent was 11/3-11/4 and the most ancient 10/28-10/31. Of the seven polls four are right-wing and would be rejected by Huffington Post’s Pollster. At least two of them are landline only and one, Gravis, is run by Breitbart (whose executive chairman is taking a leave to run the Trump campaign!). As far as timing, they do not include a 10/27-11/1 CNN poll in Pennsylvania that would boost Clinton’s average there, even though it was taken on 10/27-11/1, even though that timing working in acceptable Colorado. Anyway, you get the picture.
I think Nate Silver's model doesn't have a built-in partisan bias, but I do think that some of the mathematical assumptions built into his model (as far as I understand it) may be biased against the frontrunner in any electoral contest. This year, Hillary Clinton has led Donald Trump pretty much for the whole election, so this built-in 'lean' in 538's model has affected her rather than her opponent.
[ 07. November 2016, 17:27: Message edited by: Crœsos ]
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
@ quetzalcoatl
Here is RCP at 1830 GMT on 7/11
If you look at the graph, you'll see that Clinton's lead over Trump in the popular vote has jumped from 1.5% on November 5th to 3.0% today.
@ Croesos
There does appear to be bias in the RCP choice of polls and cut off points. Whereas I think 538 chucks them all (apart from the few it has banned for well-explained reasons) and uses the trend line adjustment to smooth out well demonstrated biases. (The classic example is LA Times/USC Tracking from which 538 deducts 5 points because of its persistent overestimate of GOP support.)
I think 538 is self-critical of its model and subjects it to refinements and adjustments through time. There is certainly concern about the possibility of some double-counting of trends, because the model adjusts the raw state poll results in the light of national polls. Which can work both ways of course. There have been a lot of up and down trends in this election, some of them pretty big. So it's certainly possible that the model needs further refinement in that area.
November 9 will no doubt reveal all. So far as analysing predictor systems are concerned there is always this risk. "The operation was a success - but the patient died".
[ 07. November 2016, 17:43: Message edited by: Barnabas62 ]
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Stetson
Shipmate
# 9597
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Posted
deleted because of screwed-up chronology of events and polls.
[ 07. November 2016, 17:32: Message edited by: Stetson ]
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I have the power...Lucifer is lord!
Posts: 6574 | From: back and forth between bible belts | Registered: Jun 2005
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Pigwidgeon
Ship's Owl
# 10192
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Gramps49:
Regards, the Oklahoma earthquakes. They are the result of fracking injection wells. Oklahoma has had increasing earthquake swarms because of increased fracking.
I realize that, but it's always so much easier to blame President Obama for everything!
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"...that is generally a matter for Pigwidgeon, several other consenting adults, a bottle of cheap Gin and the odd giraffe."
~Tortuf
Posts: 9835 | From: Hogwarts | Registered: Aug 2005
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Brenda Clough
Shipmate
# 18061
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Posted
Those happy days are soon to end. Obama now has less than three months to initiate a Muslim caliphate, take away all the guns, and get those prison camps in the parking lots of Wal-Mart going. He has really been lackadaisical and tardy on this and I think the conspiracy theorists have a legitimate cause for complaint.
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Science fiction and fantasy writer with a Patreon page
Posts: 6378 | From: Washington DC | Registered: Mar 2014
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
Election Night Timeline
The U.S. presidential election will be held tomorrow (except for those who took advantage of early voting, for whom the election has already happened). Here’s a rough timeline and what I recommend looking out for on Election Night.
All times given are Eastern Standard Time (UTC -5). Adjust as appropriate for whatever time zone you’re currently sitting in. This is an amateur project and shouldn’t be considered definitive. If you’re an American who’s uncertain about the closing time for your local polls consult your local election officials, not me! This is especially true if you live in one of the states marked with an asterisk*.
It should be noted that ballots are sometimes cast after the official closing times for polls. A lot of us remember media accounts of multi-hour waits in lines at under-equipped polling stations in various jurisdictions in 2012. This being the first presidential election since the Supreme Court partially overturned the Voting Rights Act we can probably expect worse this time around. The usual practice is to place an election marshal at the end of the line at the official poll closing time. Everyone ahead of the marshal gets to vote since they were in line at closing time and the marshal prevents any new would-be voters from lining up.
7:00 p.m. EST – Polls close in six states (GA, IN*, KY*, SC, VT, and VA) controlling 60 electoral votes between them. The state to watch here is Georgia. It’s the most Republican-leaning state that’s still plausible for Hillary Clinton to win, albeit only remotely plausible. If Georgia goes for Clinton it’s the ‘canary in the coal mine’ indicating that most pre-election polling underestimated Clinton’s strength and we’re most likely in for a Clinton landslide.
7:30 p.m. EST – Polls close in three states (NC, OH, and WV) controlling 38 electoral votes, bringing the total to 98. North Carolina and Ohio are the ones to watch here. Trump needs to win both these states, plus Florida, to have any plausible path to the presidency. Yes, it’s theoretically possible that Trump could lose all three and somehow manage to win Illinois and California, but that’s not a particularly realistic scenario. So the North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida trifecta is a necessary condition for a Trump victory, though it is not by itself a sufficient condition. The details of the Trump trifecta were discussed in an earlier post.
8:00 p.m. EST – Polls close in sixteen states (AL, CT, DE, FL*, IL, ME, MD, MA, MS, MO, NH*, NJ, OK, PA, RI, and TN) and the District of Columbia. This brings the total number of electoral votes determined to 270, a majority if either candidate is able to win everything so far. Most of the Florida polls will have closed an hour earlier, but the panhandle is in the Central Time Zone. Other than seeing how Florida, the third member of the Trump trifecta, turned out, the state to watch in this group is New Hampshire. It’s the weakest point in Clinton’s “firewall”, the collection of Clinton-leaning states that get her to 270+ electoral votes without having to rely on winning true “battleground” states. Polls close in most of the Granite State at 7:00 p.m. EST, with the exception of the 13 cities of New Hampshire which are allowed to keep their polls open until 8:00 p.m. EST. Since about two-thirds of New Hampshirites live somewhere other than those 13 cities it’s possible that the result will be called by the networks sometime between 7:00 p.m. EST and 8:00 p.m. EST if the early returns are lopsided enough. At any rate the New Hampshire result, combined with the results from North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida, will tell us whether Trump is having a good night or not fairly early in the evening.
8:30 p.m. EST – Polls close in Arkansas. 276 electoral votes have now been determined, aside from the actual counting of ballots. “Schrödinger’s election”.
9:00 p.m. EST – Polls close in thirteen states (AZ, CO, KS*, LA, MI*, MN, NE, NM, NY, SD*, TX*, WI, and WY) bringing the total number of electoral votes accounted for to 429. It should be noted that Colorado conducts its elections solely through mail-in ballots, so saying the polls close in this state at 9:00 p.m. EST (7:00 p.m. MST) is a bit meaningless. This group of states is the earliest point where one of the candidates could plausibly accumulate 270+ electoral votes, though they’d have to be having an exceptionally good night to do so. The states in this group probably also represent Trump’s last chance. If he doesn’t have at least 239 electoral votes once these states are tallied, he’s lost. After this there are only 31 electoral votes in states that are either Trump-leaning or toss ups.
10:00 p.m. EST – Polls close in four states (IA, MT, NV, and UT). Only 21 electoral votes are at stake in this group, bringing the total determined so far to 450. Utah will be the state of interest here. Most will be tuning in to see if widespread Mormon dislike of Trump translates into the traditionally Republican state going Democratic (unlikely) or third party (more likely, but still a long shot) this year.
11:00 p.m. EST – Polls close in six states (CA, HI, ID*, ND*, OR*, and WA). This is the most likely point where 270 electoral votes will finally be accumulated by one candidate, making her the president-elect. Like Colorado earlier this evening, Oregon and Washington conduct their elections by mail so listing a poll closing time for these states is a bit arbitrary.
1:00 a.m. EST, November 9 – Polls close in Alaska’s Aleutian Island polling stations, ending election 2016 and kicking off the 2018 mid-term elections.
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*Indicates a state with asynchronous poll closing times, usually because the state contains more than one time zone. In such cases the latest poll closing time is used. For example, polls in Kentucky close at 6:00 p.m., but since Kentucky falls into both the Eastern and Central Time Zones polling stations in the Central Time portions of Kentucky close one hour after the polling stations in the Eastern Time parts of Kentucky. In other cases, local closing times are dictated by the size of the city in which the polling place is located. Some news organizations are willing to project a winner in a state even if polls remain open in portions of that state if there aren't enough voters in the jurisdictions with still-open polls to tip the statewide balance.
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
Boogie--
quote:
Originally posted by Boogie:
I feel this way too.
I'm not American, but - as a woman - the misogyny in the Trump campaign and the man himself hurts me at a visceral level. Seeing those huge crowds cry for him is painful.
Thanks for the link, Boogie. I like and admire Barbara Kingsolver, and have read and enjoyed several of her books. That article is an awesome piece of rage focused for a good purpose.
What she said about finding out, at age 11, that girls couldn't, echoes what Hillary was told in high school. After being successfully elected to a high school office, she lost a later race for president, and the winner gleefully told her that girls couldn't be president.
I've managed to compartmentalize most of my feelings about Trump and the election, but he angers me, too.
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
Croesos--
quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
quote:
Many people interpreted the lines as a sign of voter enthusiasm and approvingly commented on voters’ determination to wait them out. But long voting lines shouldn’t be a source of inspiration. They’re a foreseeable, avoidable problem — the result of poor foresight, misallocated resources, or deliberate neglect — that threaten Americans’ ability to vote.
Not everyone can afford to take five hours out of a workday to vote, or leave their children unattended for that length of time.
A California state official voted in Hollywood, and had to wait in line for 3 hours!
I voted late last Friday afternoon. Maybe half a dozen people in front of me, and about that many behind me. The line moved pretty quickly. The time-consuming thing was filling out the ballot: five over-sized pages, printed on both sides. But I'm glad I did it!
First time Obama ran, the voting line at City Hall was out into the street.
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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Og, King of Bashan
Ship's giant Amorite
# 9562
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Crœsos:
It should be noted that Colorado conducts its elections solely through mail-in ballots, so saying the polls close in this state at 9:00 p.m. EST (7:00 p.m. MST) is a bit meaningless.
Not quite. Although all eligible voters are sent a ballot, there are still walk up polling places available. But kudos for knowing that MST is a thing- no exaggeration, many smart people I know in other parts of the country have no idea that there is something between Central time and Pacific time.
Posts: 3259 | From: Denver, Colorado, USA | Registered: May 2005
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HCH
Shipmate
# 14313
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Posted
Will someone please promise me that this thread will close not too long in the future (replaced, of course, by the 2020 election thread)?
Posts: 1540 | From: Illinois, USA | Registered: Nov 2008
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Pigwidgeon
Ship's Owl
# 10192
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Og, King of Bashan:
But kudos for knowing that MST is a thing- no exaggeration, many smart people I know in other parts of the country have no idea that there is something between Central time and Pacific time.
I don't watch television any more, but when I first moved to MST from EST I was always puzzled by network television announcing that a program would be on at something like "8 o'clock -- 7 Central." There really is life in the western half of the country!
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"...that is generally a matter for Pigwidgeon, several other consenting adults, a bottle of cheap Gin and the odd giraffe."
~Tortuf
Posts: 9835 | From: Hogwarts | Registered: Aug 2005
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mousethief
Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
Those happy days are soon to end. Obama now has less than three months to initiate a Muslim caliphate, take away all the guns, and get those prison camps in the parking lots of Wal-Mart going. He has really been lackadaisical and tardy on this and I think the conspiracy theorists have a legitimate cause for complaint.
And what was with that invasion of Texas? Totally lame.
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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...
Posts: 63536 | From: Washington | Registered: Jul 2001
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Barnabas62
Shipmate
# 9110
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by HCH:
Will someone please promise me that this thread will close not too long in the future (replaced, of course, by the 2020 election thread)?
We normally close these threads about a week after election night. You will be out of your misery soon.
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Who is it that you seek? How then shall we live? How shall we sing the Lord's song in a strange land?
Posts: 21397 | From: Norfolk UK | Registered: Feb 2005
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Nicolemr
Shipmate
# 28
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Posted
I'll miss it after so long! ![[Tear]](graemlins/tear.gif)
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On pilgrimage in the endless realms of Cyberia, currently traveling by ship. Now with live journal!
Posts: 11803 | From: New York City "The City Carries On" | Registered: May 2001
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Lyda*Rose
Ship's broken porthole
# 4544
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Posted
I seem to remember that when someone first tried to start this thread two years ago, a non-American host batted it down because it seemed waaaay too early to have a P.O.T.U.S. election thread. Oh, the poor innocent!
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"Dear God, whose name I do not know - thank you for my life. I forgot how BIG... thank you. Thank you for my life." ~from Joe Vs the Volcano
Posts: 21377 | From: CA | Registered: May 2003
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Og: Thread Killer
Ship's token CN Mennonite
# 3200
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Posted
Watched my first election results back in 76 with Ford and Carter at the age of 12 - was hooked on all the drama. Have watched every election night for Canadian H of Commons and US presidential since.
Looking forward to all the drama.
![[Yipee]](graemlins/spin.gif)
Yes, I'm weird....
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I wish I was seeking justice loving mercy and walking humbly but... "Cease to lament for that thou canst not help, And study help for that which thou lament'st."
Posts: 5025 | From: Toronto | Registered: Aug 2002
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Dave W.
Shipmate
# 8765
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
quote:
Originally posted by Brenda Clough:
Those happy days are soon to end. Obama now has less than three months to initiate a Muslim caliphate, take away all the guns, and get those prison camps in the parking lots of Wal-Mart going. He has really been lackadaisical and tardy on this and I think the conspiracy theorists have a legitimate cause for complaint.
And what was with that invasion of Texas? Totally lame.
Yeah, what are we supposed to do with all these t-shirts?
Posts: 2059 | From: the hub of the solar system | Registered: Nov 2004
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simontoad
Ship's Amphibian
# 18096
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Boogie:
I feel this way too.
I'm not American, but - as a woman - the misogyny in the Trump campaign and the man himself hurts me at a visceral level. Seeing those huge crowds cry for him is painful.
![[Votive]](graemlins/votive.gif)
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Human
Posts: 1571 | From: Romsey, Vic, AU | Registered: May 2014
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mousethief
Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953
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Posted
I understand Trump's rally is going to be at a Hilton. I hope they insisted on payment up front.
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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...
Posts: 63536 | From: Washington | Registered: Jul 2001
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Pigwidgeon
Ship's Owl
# 10192
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by mousethief:
I understand Trump's rally is going to be at a Hilton. I hope they insisted on payment up front.
And be sure the check clears.
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"...that is generally a matter for Pigwidgeon, several other consenting adults, a bottle of cheap Gin and the odd giraffe."
~Tortuf
Posts: 9835 | From: Hogwarts | Registered: Aug 2005
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mousethief
Ship's Thieving Rodent
# 953
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Posted
Check hell. Direct bank transfer. Into a temporary account that we then transfer it out of, and close.
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This is the last sig I'll ever write for you...
Posts: 63536 | From: Washington | Registered: Jul 2001
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
quote:
Originally posted by HCH:
Will someone please promise me that this thread will close not too long in the future (replaced, of course, by the 2020 election thread)?
We normally close these threads about a week after election night. You will be out of your misery soon.
I hope the hosts will take into account that the actual election by the electoral college doesn't take place until December 19 and that the results aren't certified by Congress until January 6, 2017. There's a little drama at present with two Democratic electors from Washington state saying that they'll ignore the will of the voters in that state. This will only be relevant in a close election.
For those who want to know such things my own election night predictions are that Hillary Clinton will beat Donald Trump 323 electoral votes to 215. She'll take Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina while Trump will take Ohio and Iowa. The two disputed congressional districts (ME-2 and NE-2) will vote consistently with the rest of their respective states (Maine for Clinton and Nebraska for Trump).
The U.S. Senate will have 52 Democrats and 48 Republicans in it (a +5 Democratic gain). Democrats will take currently Republican seats in Illinois, Missouri, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, successfully defend retiring Senator Harry Reid's seat in Nevada, and lose a close bid to unseat North Carolina's Richard Burr. Republicans will not be able to successfully flip any currently Democratic Senate seats this election.
I'm mostly basing this on the fact that throughout the Republican primaries Donald Trump consistently underperformed his polling. In other words, his vote totals were always a few points lower than his support in polls. This didn't really hurt him when he had five or ten opponents, but against a single opponent it's fatal. Trump has rather famously failed to generate any "ground game" (i.e. a system to identify supporters and make sure they show up at the polls) so I anticipate this trend to continue tomorrow night.
This prediction was generated by reading the news and studying polls, followed by an incubation period in my "gut". Given where it was incubated you can guess where I pulled it out of. I expect to be generally right, but likely wrong on at least one particular.
Anyone else care to put a prediction on record?
[ 08. November 2016, 03:03: Message edited by: Crœsos ]
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Crœsos
Shipmate
# 238
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Posted
Sorry, that last post should predict "51 Democrats and 49 Republicans".
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Humani nil a me alienum puto
Posts: 10706 | From: Sardis, Lydia | Registered: May 2001
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Golden Key
Shipmate
# 1468
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Posted
Barnabas--
quote:
Originally posted by Barnabas62:
quote:
Originally posted by HCH:
Will someone please promise me that this thread will close not too long in the future (replaced, of course, by the 2020 election thread)?
We normally close these threads about a week after election night. You will be out of your misery soon.
Dissenting opinion, FWIW: There's no way that this particular election will be fully, legally settled in the next few days. Might well be Bush v. Gore on steroids.
Possible problems include:
--Donald wins. ![[Paranoid]](graemlins/paranoid.gif)
--Donald loses. ![[Smile]](smile.gif) Even if he stomps off, saying he never wanted that silly presidency, *anyway*, he will kick up a fuss. Recounts, rigged election, conspiracies, the world's coming to an end and it's all Hillary's fault, lawsuits, attempted criminal charges, urging his followers to "do something"...
--Hillary wins. Lots of people won't like that at all.
--Hillary loses. Recounts, deciding if recounts are wise. Upset supporters...especially a whole lot of uppity women who thought *this* would be The Moment... And I seriously worry about her, if she loses. She's been working towards this since she was a kid.
--A tie, or very close result.
--Electoral college!
--Various kinds of election malfeasance by Americans.
--Various kinds of election malfeasance by foreign hackers or parties unknown.
--Julian Assange continues messing around.
--The FBI implodes. As does the rest of the fed. gov't.
--The states mess around.
--*Volatile* gun owners (i.e., not all gun owners) decide Something Needs To Be Done.
...etc....
If you have to close this thread, please a) let us start a continuation thread, to handle the above, like the Brexit thread; and b) put the current thread where we can easily find it and link to it.
Many thanks, groveling, etc.
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Blessed Gator, pray for us!
--"Oh bat bladders, do you have to bring common sense into this?" (Dragon, "Jane & the Dragon")
--"Oh, Peace Train, save this country!" (Yusuf/Cat Stevens, "Peace Train")
Posts: 18601 | From: Chilling out in an undisclosed, sincere pumpkin patch. | Registered: Oct 2001
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